花旗銀行 (C) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Citi's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Review with the Chief Executive Officer, Jane Fraser; and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Mason. Today's call will be hosted by Jen Landis, Head of Citi Investor Relations.

您好，歡迎收看花旗 2022 年第四季度與首席執行官 Jane Fraser 的收益回顧；和首席財務官 Mark Mason。今天的電話會議將由花旗投資者關係主管 Jen Landis 主持。

(Operator Instructions). Also as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Ms. Landis, you may begin.

（操作員說明）。另外提醒一下，今天正在錄製此會議。如果您有異議，請此時斷開連接。 Landis 女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. I'd like to remind you that today's presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com, may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including those described in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn it over to Jane.

謝謝你，運營商。早上好，感謝大家加入我們。我想提醒您，今天的演示文稿可在我們的網站 citigroup.com 上下載，其中可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並受不確定性和環境變化的影響。由於各種因素，包括我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的因素，實際結果可能與這些陳述存在重大差異。有了這個，我會把它交給簡。

Thank you, Jen, and happy new year to everyone joining us today. We are very much off and running as we start 2023. Today, I'll share our perspective on the macro environment before recapping our performance in the fourth quarter. And then I will take a few minutes to reflect on our progress in 2022 and our strategic priorities for the coming year.

謝謝你，Jen，祝今天加入我們的每個人新年快樂。在 2023 年開始之際，我們非常忙碌。今天，在回顧我們第四季度的業績之前，我將分享我們對宏觀環境的看法。然後，我將花幾分鐘時間回顧一下我們在 2022 年取得的進展以及來年的戰略重點。

The global macro environment played out largely as we anticipated during the second half of last year. As we enter 2023, environments have had better than we all expected for the time being at least, despite the aggressive tightening by the Central Bank. In Europe, a warmer December reduced the stress on energy supplies and inflation is beginning to ease off its peak.

全球宏觀環境在很大程度上符合我們去年下半年的預期。隨著我們進入 2023 年，儘管中央銀行積極收緊政策，但至少目前環境比我們所有人預期的要好。在歐洲，溫暖的 12 月減輕了能源供應的壓力，通脹開始從高峰期回落。

That said, we still expect softening of economic conditions across the Eurozone this year given some of the structural challenges it is grappling with. In Asia, while the public health impact in China are unfortunately likely to be severe, the abrupt end of COVID-Zero should begin to drive growth and improve sentiment generally. And here at home, the labor market remains strong and holiday spending was better than expected, in part because consumers have been dipping into their savings.

也就是說，鑑於歐元區正在應對的一些結構性挑戰，我們仍然預計今年整個歐元區的經濟狀況將會走軟。在亞洲，雖然不幸的是中國的公共衛生影響可能很嚴重，但 COVID-00 的突然結束應該會開始推動增長並普遍改善情緒。在國內，勞動力市場依然強勁，假期消費好於預期，部分原因是消費者一直在動用他們的儲蓄。

The Fed remains resolute in tackling core inflation, however, and therefore, we continue to see the U.S. entering into a mild recession in the second half of the year. Now turning to how we performed. For the fourth quarter, we reported net income of $2.5 billion and EPS of $1.16. Our full year revenue growth of 3% ex divestitures was in line with the guidance we gave you at Investor Day, as was the case with our expenses. We delivered an ROTCE of nearly 9% and a CET1 ratio of 13%. This quarter, our businesses performed similarly to how they did throughout the year, and we're quite pleased with some and less happy with the performance of others.

然而，美聯儲仍然堅決應對核心通脹，因此，我們繼續看到美國在今年下半年進入溫和衰退。現在轉向我們的表現。第四季度，我們報告的淨收入為 25 億美元，每股收益為 1.16 美元。我們全年收入增長 3%（不包括資產剝離）符合我們在投資者日給你的指導，我們的支出也是如此。我們提供了近 9% 的 ROTCE 和 13% 的 CET1 比率。本季度，我們的業務表現與他們全年的表現相似，我們對一些業務感到非常滿意，而對其他業務的表現則不太滿意。

Services continues to deliver cracking revenue growth. Our markets businesses are navigating the environment very well, and we're seeing good momentum in U.S. Personal Banking. On the flip side, investment banking felt the pain of a drastically smaller wallet in '22 and the environment for wealth remained a challenging one. Unpacking that a bit, services delivered another excellent quarter and we have gained significant share in both Treasury and Trade Solutions and Securities Services.

服務繼續帶來驚人的收入增長。我們的市場業務在環境中航行得很好，我們看到美國個人銀行業務的良好勢頭。另一方面，投資銀行業在 22 世紀感受到了錢包大幅減少的痛苦，而財富環境仍然充滿挑戰。稍微拆開包裝，服務交付了另一個出色的季度，我們在資金和貿易解決方案以及證券服務方面獲得了很大份額。

TTS, the business most emblematic of the power of our global network had revenues up 36% year-over-year as we execute on the strategy we laid out at Investor Day. Thanks to strong business drivers, coupled with higher rates, TTS is performing ahead of our expectations.

TTS 是我們全球網絡力量最具象徵意義的業務，隨著我們執行在投資者日制定的戰略，收入同比增長 36%。得益於強大的業務驅動力和更高的利率，TTS 的表現超出了我們的預期。

Likewise, Securities Services was up a strong 22%. We ended the year having onboarded $1.2 trillion of new assets under administration and custody. Markets had the best fourth quarter in recent memory with revenues up 18% from 2021. We have the #1 FICC franchise on the Street during the first 3 quarters of the year and fixed income was up 31% in the final quarter. Equities was down as the mix of client activity, again, did not play to our strength in derivatives.

同樣，證券服務強勁上漲 22%。到年底，我們管理和託管了 1.2 萬億美元的新資產。市場經歷了最近記憶中最好的第四季度，收入比 2021 年增長了 18%。今年前三個季度，我們在華爾街擁有排名第一的 FICC 特許經營權，最後一個季度的固定收益增長了 31%。由於客戶活動的組合再次未能發揮我們在衍生品方面的實力，股票下跌。

With the wallet down significantly, our investment banking revenues were off by about 60% this quarter. While the pipeline looks more promising and the client sentiment is improving, it would be hard to precisely predict when the tide will turn in '23. Wealth Management's performance was disappointing. Revenues were down 6% in the quarter, with the macro environment creating headwinds in investment fees and AUM globally, but most acutely in Asia. However, we have been steadily improving the business as demonstrated by continued momentum in client acquisitions across the spectrum and net new investment flows.

由於錢包大幅減少，本季度我們的投資銀行業務收入下降了約 60%。雖然管道看起來更有希望並且客戶情緒正在改善，但很難準確預測 23 世紀潮流何時轉向。財富管理的表現令人失望。本季度收入下降 6%，宏觀環境對全球投資費用和資產管理規模造成不利影響，但在亞洲最為嚴重。然而，我們一直在穩步改善業務，這從各個領域客戶收購的持續勢頭和淨新投資流中可以看出。

Similarly, we continue to build our client adviser base, albeit at a slower pace given this environment. We would expect to see these investments pay off as the markets recover. In U.S. Personal Banking, both cards businesses had double-digit revenue growth for the second straight quarter as purchase sales and revolving balances continued to grow strongly. Whilst in retail banking, we clearly have some more work to do. As you know, we've been actively managing our balance sheet and risk.

同樣，我們繼續建立我們的客戶顧問基礎，儘管在這種環境下速度較慢。隨著市場復甦，我們預計這些投資會得到回報。在美國個人銀行業務方面，由於採購銷售和循環餘額繼續強勁增長，這兩項卡業務的收入連續第二個季度實現兩位數增長。在零售銀行業務方面，我們顯然還有更多工作要做。如您所知，我們一直在積極管理我們的資產負債表和風險。

Our cost of credit increased in line with our guidance. We built reserves in Personal Banking this quarter on the back of volume growth as well as in anticipation of a mild recession. And in the U.S., net credit losses in cards continue to normalize as we had expected, still well below pre-COVID levels. Corporate credit remains healthy, and our low overall cost of credit was similar to last quarter, reflecting the quality of our corporate loan portfolio.

我們的信貸成本增加符合我們的指引。由於交易量增長以及對溫和衰退的預期，本季度我們在個人銀行業務中建立了儲備金。在美國，信用卡的淨信用損失繼續正常化，正如我們預期的那樣，仍遠低於 COVID 之前的水平。企業信貸保持健康，我們較低的整體信貸成本與上一季度相似，反映了我們企業貸款組合的質量。

In terms of capital, we increased the CET1 ratio by about 70 basis points to 13% during the fourth quarter. And finally, our tangible book value per share increased to $81.65, and we returned $1 billion to our shareholders through our common dividend.

在資本方面，我們在第四季度將 CET1 比率提高了約 70 個基點至 13%。最後，我們的每股有形賬面價值增加到 81.65 美元，我們通過普通股息向股東返還了 10 億美元。

Now let me step back and discuss what we accomplished in 2022. One of our major goals last year was to put in place a strategic plan designed to create long-term value for our shareholders and to get that plan swiftly off the ground. I'm pleased with the significant progress we've already made. We simplified the bank, closing sales of our consumer businesses in 5 markets, including 3 in the fourth quarter. And we have made rapid progress winding down our consumer business in Korea as well as our franchise in Russia.

現在讓我退一步談談我們在 2022 年取得的成就。我們去年的主要目標之一是製定一項戰略計劃，旨在為我們的股東創造長期價值，並迅速實施該計劃。我對我們已經取得的重大進展感到高興。我們簡化了銀行業務，關閉了 5 個市場的消費者業務銷售，其中 3 個在第四季度完成。我們在韓國的消費者業務以及在俄羅斯的特許經營權方面取得了快速進展。

We continue to invest in our transformation to address our consent orders and to modernize our bank. We're streamlining our processes and making them more automated whilst improving the quality and accessibility of our data. This will make us a better bank. We brought in very strong talent, met our representation goals and strengthened our culture by increasing accountability and shareholder alignment. To that end, I'm pleased we delivered against our financial guidance for the year. We also released our first plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050, expanded our impact investing and announced the findings from an external law firm, which reviewed our racial equity efforts in the U.S.

我們繼續投資於我們的轉型，以解決我們的同意令並使我們的銀行現代化。我們正在簡化我們的流程並使它們更加自動化，同時提高我們數據的質量和可訪問性。這將使我們成為一家更好的銀行。我們引進了非常優秀的人才，實現了我們的代表目標，並通過加強問責制和股東一致性來加強我們的文化。為此，我很高興我們實現了今年的財務指導。我們還發布了到 2050 年實現淨零排放的第一個計劃，擴大了我們的影響力投資，並公佈了一家外部律師事務所的調查結果，該律師事務所審查了我們在美國的種族平等努力。

Finally, I'm very proud of how our people handled the macro and geopolitical shocks, which define 2022 and supported our clients and our communities with excellent and compassion throughout. Before I hand over to Mark, let's turn to the next few years and in particular, the path to achieving our medium-term return targets that we laid out on Page 5.

最後，我為我們的員工如何應對宏觀和地緣政治衝擊而感到自豪，這些衝擊定義了 2022 年，並始終以卓越和同情心支持我們的客戶和社區。在我交給馬克之前，讓我們談談未來幾年，特別是實現我們在第 5 頁上製定的中期回報目標的途徑。

At Investor Day, we talked about the past coming in 3 phases, with Phase 1 characterized by both disciplined execution and investment. 2023 is a continuation of Phase 1, laying the foundation for driving long-term shareholder value. We're focused on changing our business mix to drive revenues and returns with the expectation that our businesses will close out '23 competitively stronger. Services entered '23 with strategic momentum and a pipeline of major new innovation and market-leading product capabilities. Markets continue to benefit from our active corporate client base with the franchise further advancing on the back of investments and the businesses focused on capital productivity.

在投資者日，我們談到了過去的三個階段，第一階段的特點是紀律嚴明的執行和投資。 2023 年是第一階段的延續，為推動長期股東價值奠定基礎。我們專注於改變我們的業務組合以推動收入和回報，並期望我們的業務在 23 世紀結束時更具競爭力。服務以戰略勢頭和一系列重大創新和市場領先的產品能力進入 23 世紀。市場繼續受益於我們活躍的企業客戶群，特許經營權在投資和專注於資本生產力的業務的支持下進一步發展。

Banking and Wealth are well positioned for when the cycle turns, thanks to the investments we've made in top talent and technology as well as the synergies realized across the franchise. As you saw, we felt this was the right time to make (inaudible) and we started a search to identify the next leader of this business.

得益於我們對頂尖人才和技術的投資以及整個特許經營實現的協同效應，銀行和財富業務在周期轉變時處於有利地位。如您所見，我們認為現在是合適的時機（聽不清），我們開始進行搜索以確定該業務的下一任領導者。

I asked Jim O'Donnell to take on a new role, focused on senior clients across the firm. This will leverage his deep expertise and relationships, and when combined with (inaudible) additional role as North America Head, it's designed to help us capture more of what is a significant business opportunity in our home market.

我讓吉姆·奧唐奈 (Jim O'Donnell) 擔任新職務，專注於公司的高級客戶。這將利用他深厚的專業知識和人際關係，再加上（聽不清）作為北美負責人的額外角色，它旨在幫助我們抓住更多本土市場的重要商機。

U.S. Personal Banking will continue to benefit from the recovery and borrowing, taking full advantage of our market-leading digital platforms and new products, particularly in the card space. We will make further progress on our international consumer exits, enabling us to simplify the firm and reduce our cost base. And we will, of course, focus on our clients, deepening relationship and bringing on new clients in line with our strategy. We will continue making disciplined investments in our franchise, including the investments in our transformation and controls. However, we will pace some of our business investments to reflect the operating environment.

美國個人銀行業務將繼續受益於復蘇和借貸，充分利用我們市場領先的數字平台和新產品，特別是在卡領域。我們將在國際消費者退出方面取得進一步進展，使我們能夠簡化公司並降低成本基礎。當然，我們將專注於我們的客戶，深化關係並根據我們的戰略吸引新客戶。我們將繼續對我們的特許經營權進行有紀律的投資，包括對我們轉型和控制的投資。然而，我們將調整我們的一些業務投資以反映運營環境。

Looking further out, we will begin to bend the curve of our expenses to deliver against our medium-term targets. We'll do so through a combination of our divestitures, realizing the financial benefits of our transformation and further simplification, and Mark will cover this in more detail shortly.

放眼未來，我們將開始彎曲支出曲線，以實現我們的中期目標。我們將通過資產剝離的組合來實現這一目標，實現我們轉型和進一步簡化的經濟利益，馬克將在短期內更詳細地介紹這一點。

We fully recognize this suppresses our returns in the near term, but we are deliberately taking the tough strategic actions and the investments necessary to reach our medium-term return targets and to create long-term shareholder value. We are carrying not just our momentum, but our determination into 2023. Despite the macro headwinds, we are very much on track to reach the medium-term return targets we shared with you on Investor Day. We intentionally designed a strategy that can deliver for our shareholders in different environments.

我們充分認識到這會在短期內抑制我們的回報，但我們正在有意採取強硬的戰略行動和必要的投資，以實現我們的中期回報目標並創造長期股東價值。我們不僅帶著我們的動力，還有我們進入 2023 年的決心。儘管存在宏觀逆風，但我們非常有望實現我們在投資者日與您分享的中期回報目標。我們特意設計了一種戰略，可以在不同環境中為我們的股東提供服務。

We are running the bank differently with a relentless focus on execution, and we will continue to transparently share our proof points with you along the way. With that, I'd like to turn it over to Mark, and then we will be delighted as always to take your questions.

我們以不同的方式經營銀行，不懈地專注於執行，我們將繼續以透明的方式與您分享我們的證據。有了這個，我想把它交給馬克，然後我們將一如既往地很高興回答你的問題。

Thanks, Jane, and good morning, everyone. We have a lot to cover on today's call. I'm going to start with the fourth quarter and full year financial results, focusing on year-over-year comparisons, unless I indicate otherwise. I'll also discuss our progress against our medium-term KPI targets and end with our guidance for 2023.

謝謝，簡，大家早上好。在今天的電話會議上，我們有很多內容要討論。除非另有說明，否則我將從第四季度和全年的財務業績開始，重點關注同比比較。我還將討論我們在中期 KPI 目標方面取得的進展，並以我們對 2023 年的指導作為結尾。

On Slide 6, we show financial results for the full firm. In the fourth quarter, we reported net income of approximately $2.5 billion and an EPS of $1.16 and an ROTCE of 5.8% on $18 billion of revenue. Embedded in these results are pretax divestiture-related impact of approximately $192 million, largely driven by gains on divestitures. Excluding these items, EPS was $1.10 with an ROTCE of approximately 5.5%.

在幻燈片 6 中，我們展示了整個公司的財務結果。在第四季度，我們報告的淨收入約為 25 億美元，每股收益為 1.16 美元，ROTCE 為 5.8%，收入為 180 億美元。這些結果中包含約 1.92 億美元的稅前資產剝離相關影響，主要由資產剝離收益驅動。排除這些項目，EPS 為 1.10 美元，ROTCE 約為 5.5%。

In the quarter, total revenues increased by 6% or 5% excluding divestiture-related impacts, as strength across services, market and U.S. Personal Banking was partially offset by declines in investment banking, wealth and the revenue reduction from the closed exit. Our results include expenses of $13 billion, a decrease of 4% versus the prior year.

本季度，總收入增長 6% 或 5%（不包括資產剝離相關影響），因為服務、市場和美國個人銀行業務的實力被投資銀行業務、財富業務的下滑和關閉退出帶來的收入減少部分抵消。我們的業績包括 130 億美元的支出，比上一年減少 4%。

Excluding divestiture-related costs from both the fourth quarter of this year and last year, expenses increased by 5%, largely driven by investments in our transformation, business-led investments and higher volume-related expenses, partially offset by productivity savings and the expense reduction from the exit.

不包括今年第四季度和去年的資產剝離相關成本，費用增長了 5%，主要是由於我們的轉型投資、業務主導的投資和更高的銷量相關費用，部分被生產力節省和費用所抵消從出口減少。

Cost of credit was approximately $1.8 billion, primarily driven by the continued normalization in card net credit losses, particularly in retail services and an ACL build of $645 million, largely related to growth in cards and some deterioration in macroeconomic assumptions. And on a full year basis, we delivered $14.8 billion of net income and an ROTCE.

信貸成本約為 18 億美元，主要受信用卡淨信貸損失持續正常化的推動，特別是在零售服務和 ACL 增加 6.45 億美元，這主要與信用卡增長和宏觀經濟假設的一些惡化有關。在全年基礎上，我們實現了 148 億美元的淨收入和 ROTCE。

Now turning to the full year revenue walk on Slide 7. In 2022, we reported revenue of approximately $75 billion, up 3%, excluding the impact of divestitures, in line with our guidance of low single-digit growth. Treasury and Trade Solution revenues were up 32%, driven by continued benefit from rates as well as business actions such as managing deposit repricing, deepening with existing clients and winning new clients across all segments. Higher wins have accelerated due to the investments that we've been making in market-leading product capabilities. These products include the first 24/7 U.S. dollar clearing capability in the industry, the 7-day cash suite product that we launched earlier this year, and instant payment, which is live in 33 markets, reaching over 60 countries.

現在轉向幻燈片 7 上的全年收入。2022 年，我們報告的收入約為 750 億美元，增長 3%，不包括資產剝離的影響，符合我們對低個位數增長的指導。資金和貿易解決方案收入增長了 32%，這得益於利率的持續受益以及管理存款重新定價、深化現有客戶以及贏得所有部門的新客戶等業務行動。由於我們一直在市場領先的產品能力方面進行投資，更高的勝利已經加速。這些產品包括業內首個 24/7 美元清算能力、我們今年早些時候推出的 7 天現金套件產品，以及在 33 個市場上線、覆蓋 60 多個國家/地區的即時支付。

So while the rate environment drove about half of the growth this year, business action and investments drove the remaining half. In Securities Services, revenues grew 15% as net interest income grew 59%, driven by higher interest rates across currency, partially offset by a 1% decrease in noninterest revenue due to the impact of market valuation.

因此，雖然利率環境推動了今年約一半的增長，但商業行動和投資推動了剩下的一半。在證券服務方面，收入增長 15%，淨利息收入增長 59%，受貨幣利率上升的推動，部分被市場估值影響導致的非利息收入下降 1% 所抵消。

For the full year, we onboarded approximately $1.2 trillion of assets under custody and administration from significant client wins, and we continue to feel very good about the pipeline of new deals. In markets, we grew revenue 7%, mainly driven by strength in rates and FX as we continue to serve our corporate and investor clients while optimizing capital. This was partially offset by the pressures in equity markets, primarily reflecting reduced client activity in equity derivatives. On the flip side, banking revenues, excluding gains and losses on loan hedges, were down 39%, driven by investment banking as heightened macro uncertainty and volatility continued to impact client activity.

全年，我們從贏得的重要客戶中獲得了約 1.2 萬億美元的託管和管理資產，我們繼續對新交易的管道感到非常滿意。在市場方面，我們的收入增長了 7%，主要受利率和外匯優勢的推動，因為我們在優化資本的同時繼續為我們的企業和投資者客戶提供服務。這部分被股票市場的壓力所抵消，主要反映了股票衍生品客戶活動的減少。另一方面，由於宏觀不確定性和波動性加劇繼續影響客戶活動，銀行業收入（不包括貸款對沖收益和損失）下降了 39%，這是受投資銀行業務的推動。

In cards, we grew revenues 8% as we continue to see benefits from the investments that we made in 2022 along with the rebound in consumer borrowing levels. And in wealth, revenues were down 2%, largely driven by market valuations in China lockdown. Excluding Asia, revenues were up 3%. Corporate Other also benefited from higher NII in part as the shorter duration of our investment portfolio allowed us to benefit from higher short-term rates. And as you can see on the slide, in legacy franchises, excluding divestiture-related impacts, revenues decreased by about $1.3 billion as we closed 5 of the exit markets and continue to wind down Russia and Korea consumer.

在卡片方面，我們的收入增長了 8%，因為我們繼續看到我們在 2022 年進行的投資帶來的好處以及消費者藉貸水平的反彈。在財富方面，收入下降了 2%，這主要是受中國封鎖期間市場估值的推動。不包括亞洲在內，收入增長了 3%。公司其他也受益於較高的 NII，部分原因是我們投資組合的期限較短，使我們能夠從較高的短期利率中受益。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣，在遺留特許經營中，不包括剝離相關的影響，由於我們關閉了 5 個退出市場並繼續減少俄羅斯和韓國的消費者，收入減少了約 13 億美元。

Going forward, we would expect legacy franchises to continue to be an offset to overall revenue growth as we close and wind down the remaining exit market. On Slide 8, we show an expense walk for the full year with the key underlying drivers. In 2022, excluding divestiture-related impacts, expenses were up roughly 8% in line with our guidance. Transformation grew 2%, with about 2/3 of the increase related to risk, control, data and finance program. And approximately 25% of the investments in those programs are related to technology.

展望未來，隨著我們關閉和關閉剩餘的退出市場，我們預計傳統特許經營權將繼續抵消整體收入增長。在幻燈片 8 中，我們展示了全年的支出情況以及主要的潛在驅動因素。 2022 年，不計資產剝離相關影響，費用增長約 8%，符合我們的指引。轉型增長 2%，其中約 2/3 的增長與風險、控制、數據和財務計劃有關。這些項目中大約 25% 的投資與技術有關。

About 1% of the expense increase was driven by business-led investments, which include improving and adding scalability to our TTS and Securities Services platform, enhancing client experiences across all businesses and developing new product capabilities. We also continue to invest in front office talent, albeit at a more measured pace, given the environment, and volume-related expenses were up 1%, largely driven by market and cards. The remainder of the growth was driven by structural expenses, which include an increase to risk and control investments to support the front office as well as macro impacts like inflation. These expenses were partially offset by productivity savings as well as the benefit from foreign exchange translation and the expense reduction from the exit market.

大約 1% 的費用增長是由業務主導的投資推動的，其中包括改進和增加我們的 TTS 和證券服務平台的可擴展性，增強所有業務的客戶體驗以及開發新產品功能。我們還繼續投資於前台人才，儘管考慮到環境，步伐更加謹慎，與數量相關的費用增長了 1%，主要受市場和卡片的推動。其餘的增長是由結構性支出推動的，其中包括增加風險和控制投資以支持前台以及通貨膨脹等宏觀影響。這些費用被生產力節省以及外匯轉換帶來的好處和退出市場的費用減少部分抵消了。

Across the firm, technology-related expenses increased by 13% this year. On Slide 9, we show our 2022 results versus the medium-term KPI targets that we laid out at Investor Day, which we will continue to show you as we make progress along the way. Macro factors and market conditions, including those driven by monetary tightening at levels we didn't anticipate at Investor Day, impacted some KPIs positively and others negatively. However, we were able to offset some of the impacts as we executed against our strategy.

在整個公司，與技術相關的費用今年增長了 13%。在幻燈片 9 上，我們展示了我們 2022 年的結果與我們在投資者日制定的中期 KPI 目標，我們將在我們取得進展的過程中繼續向您展示這些目標。宏觀因素和市場狀況，包括我們在投資者日未預料到的貨幣緊縮水平所驅動的因素，對一些 KPI 產生了積極影響，對其他 KPI 產生了負面影響。但是，在我們執行我們的戰略時，我們能夠抵消一些影響。

In TTS, we continue to see healthy underlying drivers that indicate consistently strong activity from both new and existing clients as we roll out new product offerings and invest in the client experience, which is a key part of our strategy. Client wins are up approximately 20% across all segments. And these again include marquee transactions where we are serving as the client's primary operating bank. For the third quarter year-to-date, we estimate that we gained about 70 basis points of share and maintained our #1 position with large institutional clients.

在 TTS 中，我們繼續看到健康的潛在驅動因素，表明隨著我們推出新產品和投資客戶體驗，新老客戶的活動持續強勁，這是我們戰略的關鍵部分。所有細分市場的客戶贏率都增長了約 20%。這些再次包括我們作為客戶主要運營銀行的大型交易。今年第三季度，我們估計我們獲得了大約 70 個基點的份額，並保持了我們在大型機構客戶中的第一位置。

In addition, we've onboarded over 8,700 suppliers this year, helping our clients manage their supply chain to address the evolving global landscape. And in Securities Services, we onboarded new client assets, which offset some of the decline in market valuation. And we estimate that we'll gain about 50 basis points of share in Securities Services through the third quarter of this year, including in our home market. In markets, we strengthened our leadership position in fixed income by gaining share while making progress towards our revenue to RWA card.

此外，我們今年已經加入了 8,700 多家供應商，幫助我們的客戶管理他們的供應鏈以應對不斷變化的全球格局。在證券服務方面，我們獲得了新的客戶資產，這抵消了市場估值的部分下降。我們估計到今年第三季度，我們將在證券服務中獲得大約 50 個基點的份額，包括在我們的國內市場。在市場上，我們通過擴大份額鞏固了我們在固定收益領域的領導地位，同時在 RWA 卡收入方面取得了進展。

In cards, loan growth exceeded our expectations in both branded cards and retail services. Card spend volumes were up 14%, end-of-period loans up 13% and most importantly, interest-earning balances up 14%. That said, in areas like investment banking, we lost share this year, but maintained our market position. And in wealth, while we have brought on new advisers and new client assets, given the impact of market valuation, this didn't translate into growth in client assets or top line growth at this point.

在信用卡方面，品牌卡和零售服務的貸款增長超出了我們的預期。卡消費量增長了 14%，期末貸款增長了 13%，最重要的是，生息餘額增長了 14%。也就是說，在投資銀行等領域，我們今年失去了份額，但保持了市場地位。在財富方面，雖然我們引入了新的顧問和新的客戶資產，但考慮到市場估值的影響，這並沒有轉化為客戶資產的增長或營收增長。

So in summary, we made good progress against our medium-term KPI targets despite the significant changes in the macroeconomic backdrop since Investor Day. This highlights that our diversified business model is adaptable to many environments, and we have the right strategy to achieve our return targets over the medium term. Now turning back to the fourth quarter on Slide 10, we show net interest income, deposits and loans. In the fourth quarter, net interest income increased by approximately $710 million on a sequential basis, largely driven by services, cards and market.

因此，總而言之，儘管自投資者日以來宏觀經濟背景發生了重大變化，但我們在中期 KPI 目標方面取得了良好進展。這凸顯出我們的多元化業務模式適用於多種環境，並且我們擁有實現中期回報目標的正確戰略。現在回到幻燈片 10 的第四季度，我們顯示了淨利息收入、存款和貸款。第四季度，淨利息收入環比增長約 7.1 億美元，主要受服務、卡和市場的推動。

Average loans were down as growth in cards was more than offset by declines in ICG and legacy franchise. Excluding foreign exchange translation, loans were flat. And average deposits were down by approximately 1%, largely driven by declines in legacy franchises and the impact of foreign exchange translation. Excluding foreign exchange translation, deposits were up 2%. Sequentially, average deposits were up driven by growth in ICG and PBWM, and our net interest margin increased by 8 basis points.

平均貸款下降，因為信用卡的增長被 ICG 和傳統特許經營權的下降所抵消。不計入外匯折算，貸款持平。平均存款下降了約 1%，這主要是由於遺留特許經營權的下降和外匯換算的影響。不包括外匯換算，存款增長了 2%。在 ICG 和 PBWM 的增長推動下，平均存款環比上升，我們的淨息差增加了 8 個基點。

On Slide 11, we show key consumer and corporate credit mix. We are well reserved for the current environment with over $19 billion of reserves. Our reserves to funded loan ratio is approximately 2.6%. And within that, PBWM and U.S. card is 3.8% and 7.6%, respectively, both just above day 1 CECL level. And we feel very good about the high quality nature of our portfolio. In PBWM, 45% of our lending exposures are in U.S. cards. And of that, branded cards makes up 66% and retail services makes up 34%. Additionally, just over 80% of our total card exposure is to prime customers. And NCL rates continue to be well below pre-COVID levels.

在幻燈片 11 上，我們展示了主要的消費者和企業信貸組合。我們擁有超過 190 億美元的儲備以應對當前環境。我們的準備金與融資貸款比率約為 2.6%。其中，PBWM 和美國卡分別為 3.8% 和 7.6%，均略高於 CECL 第 1 天的水平。我們對我們投資組合的高質量特性感到非常滿意。在 PBWM，我們 45% 的借貸敞口是美國卡。其中，品牌卡佔 66%，零售服務佔 34%。此外，我們的信用卡總曝光量中有超過 80% 是面向主要客戶的。 NCL 率繼續遠低於 COVID 前的水平。

In our ICG portfolio, of our total exposure, over 80% is investment grade. Of the international exposure, approximately 90% is investment grade or exposure to multinational clients or their subsidiaries. And corporate nonaccrual loans remain low and are in line with pre-pandemic levels at about 39 basis points of total loans. That said, we continuously analyze our portfolios and concentration under a range of scenarios. So while the macro and geopolitical environment remains uncertain, we feel very good about our asset quality, exposures and reserve levels.

在我們的 ICG 投資組合中，超過 80% 是投資級別。在國際敞口中，大約 90% 是投資級別或對跨國客戶或其子公司的敞口。公司非應計貸款仍然很低，與大流行前的水平一致，佔貸款總額的 39 個基點左右。也就是說，我們在一系列情景下不斷分析我們的投資組合和集中度。因此，儘管宏觀和地緣政治環境仍然不確定，但我們對我們的資產質量、風險敞口和儲備水平感到非常滿意。

On Slide 12, we show our summary balance sheet and key capital and liquidity metrics. We maintain a very strong balance sheet. Of our $2.4 trillion balance sheet, about 1/4 or just under $600 billion consists of (inaudible) dollars. And our tangible book value per share was $81.65, up 3% from a year ago. On Slide 13, we show a sequential CET1 (inaudible) to provide more detail on the drivers this quarter and our targets over the next few quarters. Walking from the end of the third quarter, first, we generated $2.3 billion of net income to common, which added 19 basis points. Second, we returned $1 billion in the form of common dividend, which drove a reduction of about 9 basis points. Third, the impact on AOCI through our AFS investment portfolio drove an 8 basis point increase. And finally, the remaining 56 basis point increase was largely driven by the closing of exits, RWA optimization and market moves towards the end of the quarter.

在幻燈片 12 上，我們展示了我們的資產負債表摘要以及關鍵資本和流動性指標。我們保持著非常強勁的資產負債表。在我們 2.4 萬億美元的資產負債表中，大約 1/4 或略低於 6000 億美元由（聽不清）美元組成。我們每股有形賬面價值為 81.65 美元，比一年前增長 3%。在幻燈片 13 上，我們展示了連續的 CET1（聽不清），以提供有關本季度驅動因素和我們未來幾個季度目標的更多詳細信息。從第三季度末開始，首先，我們為普通股帶來了 23 億美元的淨收入，增加了 19 個基點。其次，我們以普通股息的形式返還了 10 億美元，這推動了約 9 個基點的減少。第三，通過我們的 AFS 投資組合對 AOCI 的影響推動了 8 個基點的增長。最後，剩餘的 56 個基點增長主要是由於退出關閉、RWA 優化和市場走向本季度末。

We ended the quarter with a 13% CET1 capital ratio, approximately 70 basis points higher than the last quarter. As you can see, we hit our 13% CET1 target, which includes 100 basis point internal management book. That will allow us to absorb any temporary impacts related to the Mexico consumer exit at signing while continuing to have ample capacity to serve our clients.

本季度末，我們的 CET1 資本比率為 13%，比上一季度高出約 70 個基點。如您所見，我們達到了 13% 的 CET1 目標，其中包括 100 個基點的內部管理書籍。這將使我們能夠在簽署時吸收與墨西哥消費者退出相關的任何臨時影響，同時繼續有足夠的能力為我們的客戶提供服務。

And as it relates to buybacks this quarter, we will remain on pause and continue to make that decision quarter-by-quarter. On Slide 14, we show the results for our Institutional Clients Group for the fourth quarter. Revenues increased by 3% this quarter with TTS up 36% on continued strength in NII; Securities Services revenues up 22%; markets revenue, up 18% on strength in fixed income, partially offset by a decline in equity and investment banking revenues down 58%, which is in the range of the overall decline in industry volume. Expenses increased 6%, driven by transformation, business-led investments, specifically in services and volume-related expenses partially offset by FX translation and productivity savings.

由於涉及本季度的回購，我們將繼續暫停並繼續逐季度做出該決定。在幻燈片 14 上，我們顯示了第四季度機構客戶組的結果。由於 NII 持續走強，本季度收入增長 3%，TTS 增長 36%；證券服務收入增長 22%；市場收入增長 18%，原因是固定收益強勁，部分被股票和投資銀行收入下降 58% 的下降所抵消，這在行業總量下降的範圍內。在轉型、業務主導型投資的推動下，費用增長了 6%，特別是服務和與數量相關的費用，部分被外匯轉換和生產力節省所抵消。

Cost of credit was $56 million, driven by net credit losses of $104 million, partially offset by an ACL release. This resulted in net income of approximately $1.9 billion, down 18%, driven by higher cost of credit and higher expenses. ICG delivered a 7.9% ROTCE for the quarter. And average loans were down slightly, largely driven by the impact of foreign exchange translation and our continued capital optimization efforts. Excluding FX, loans were up 1%. Average deposits were roughly flat. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange translation, deposits were up 3%, and sequentially, deposits were up 4%. As for the full year, ICG grew revenues by 3% to $41 billion and delivered approximately $10.7 billion of net income with an ROTCE of 11.1%.

信貸成本為 5600 萬美元，這是由 1.04 億美元的淨信貸損失驅動的，部分被 ACL 釋放所抵消。這導致淨收入約為 19 億美元，下降 18%，原因是信貸成本和費用增加。 ICG 本季度的 ROTCE 為 7.9%。平均貸款略有下降，主要是受外匯換算和我們持續的資本優化努力的影響。不包括外匯，貸款增長了 1%。平均存款大致持平。排除外匯換算的影響，存款增長 3%，環比增長 4%。至於全年，ICG 的收入增長了 3%，達到 410 億美元，淨收入約為 107 億美元，ROTCE 為 11.1%。

Now turning to Slide 15. We show the results of our Personal Banking and Wealth Management business. Revenues were up 5% as net interest income growth was partially offset by a decline in noninterest revenue, driven by lower investment product revenue in wealth and higher partner payments in retail services. Expenses were up 7%, driven by investments in transformation and other risk and control initiatives.

現在轉到幻燈片 15。我們展示了個人銀行和財富管理業務的結果。收入增長 5%，因為淨利息收入的增長被非利息收入的下降部分抵消，這是由財富投資產品收入下降和零售服務合作夥伴支付增加所推動的。受轉型投資和其他風險與控制舉措的推動，費用增長了 7%。

Cost of credit was $1.7 billion, which included a reserve build, driven by card volume growth and a deterioration in macroeconomic assumptions. NCLs were up, reflecting ongoing normalization, particularly in retail services. Average loans increased 6%, while average deposits decreased 1%, largely reflecting clients putting cash to work in fixed income investments on our platform. And PBWM delivered an ROTCE of 1.4%, driven by the ACL build this quarter and higher expenses.

信貸成本為 17 億美元，其中包括在信用卡數量增長和宏觀經濟假設惡化的推動下建立的儲備金。 NCL 上升，反映了持續的正常化，尤其是在零售服務方面。平均貸款增長 6%，而平均存款下降 1%，這主要反映了客戶將現金用於我們平台上的固定收益投資。在本季度 ACL 建設和更高費用的推動下，PBWM 交付了 1.4% 的 ROTCE。

For the full year, PBWM delivered an ROTCE of 10.2% on $24.2 billion in revenue. On Slide 16, we show results for legacy franchise. Revenues decreased 6%, primarily driven by the closing of 5 exit markets as well as the impact of the wind down. Expenses decreased 38%, largely driven by the absence of divestiture-related impact last year related to Korea.

全年，PBWM 的 ROTCE 為 10.2%，收入為 242 億美元。在幻燈片 16 上，我們展示了傳統特許經營權的結果。收入下降 6%，主要是由於 5 個退出市場的關閉以及停產的影響。費用下降了 38%，這主要是由於去年沒有與韓國相關的資產剝離相關影響。

On Slide 17, we show results for Corporate/Other for the fourth quarter. Revenues increased largely driven by higher net revenue from the investment portfolio. Expenses were down driven by lower consulting expenses. On Slide 19, we summarize our guidance for 2023. As Jane mentioned earlier, 2023 is a continuation of Phase 1. We will continue to execute and invest, laying the foundation for the future with an eye towards driving long-term shareholder value. With that as a backdrop, we expect revenue to be in the range of $78 million to $79 billion, excluding any potential 2023 divestiture-related impacts, expenses to be roughly $54 billion, also excluding 2023 divestiture-related impact. Net credit losses in cards are expected to continue to normalize. And as we said earlier, we met our 13% CET1 target, and we will continue to evaluate the target as we go through the next DFAST cycle and close additional exit and announce others.

在幻燈片 17 上，我們展示了公司/其他公司第四季度的業績。收入的增長主要受投資組合淨收入增加的推動。諮詢費用減少導致費用下降。在幻燈片 19 上，我們總結了我們對 2023 年的指導。正如簡之前提到的，2023 年是第一階段的延續。我們將繼續執行和投資，為未來奠定基礎，著眼於推動長期股東價值。以此為背景，我們預計收入將在 7800 萬至 790 億美元之間，不包括任何潛在的 2023 年資產剝離相關影響，支出約為 540 億美元，也不包括 2023 年資產剝離相關影響。信用卡的淨信用損失預計將繼續正常化。正如我們之前所說，我們達到了 13% 的 CET1 目標，我們將在下一個 DFAST 週期中繼續評估目標，並關閉額外的退出並宣布其他人。

On Slide 20, on the right side of the page, we show our revenue for 2021 and 2022 and our expectations for 2023, excluding the impact of divestitures. In 2023, we expect the revenue growth I just mentioned to be driven by NII and NIR. In TTS, we expect revenues to grow but at a slower pace, driven by interest rates and business actions. And for Securities Services, we expect a bit of a tailwind from increased market valuation and onboarding of additional client assets. We also assume somewhat of a normalization in wealth as lockdowns in China end and market valuations start to rebound. And we expect investment banking to begin to rebound as the macroeconomic backdrop becomes more conducive to client activity.

在幻燈片 20 的頁面右側，我們顯示了 2021 年和 2022 年的收入以及我們對 2023 年的預期，不包括資產剝離的影響。 2023 年，我們預計我剛才提到的收入增長將由 NII 和 NIR 推動。在 TTS 方面，我們預計在利率和業務活動的推動下，收入將增長但增速放緩。對於證券服務，我們預計市場估值增加和增加客戶資產會帶來一些順風。我們還假設隨著中國封鎖的結束和市場估值開始反彈，財富會在一定程度上正常化。我們預計，隨著宏觀經濟背景變得更有利於客戶活動，投資銀行業將開始反彈。

As for market, we expect it to be relatively flat given the level of activity we saw in 2022. Now turning to the NII guidance for 2023. We expect both ICG and PBWM to contribute to NII growth as we grow volumes, particularly in cards, and we continue to get the benefit of U.S. and non-U.S. rate hikes in our services business.

至於市場，鑑於我們在 2022 年看到的活動水平，我們預計它會相對平穩。現在轉向 2023 年的 NII 指導。我們預計 ICG 和 PBWM 都會隨著我們增加銷量，特別是卡片，我們的服務業務繼續受益於美國和非美國加息。

As a reminder, the guidance for revenue includes the reduction of revenue from the exit and legacy franchises that we closed in 2022, and we expect to close this year in 2023. Turning to Slide 21. In 2023, the increase in expenses that I just mentioned reflects a number of decisions that we've made to further our transformation and execute on our strategy. And the main drivers are, first, transformation, as we continue to invest in data, risk and control and technology to enhance our infrastructure and ultimately make our company more efficient. Second, business-led investments as we execute against our strategy. Third, volume-related expenses in line with our revenue expectations. And fourth, elevated levels of inflation mainly impacting compensation expense, partially offset by productivity savings and expense benefits from the exit.

提醒一下，收入指導包括我們在 2022 年關閉的退出和遺留特許經營權的收入減少，我們預計今年將在 2023 年關閉。轉向幻燈片 21。在 2023 年，我剛剛增加的費用所提到的反映了我們為進一步轉型和執行我們的戰略而做出的許多決定。主要驅動力首先是轉型，因為我們繼續投資於數據、風險和控制以及技術，以加強我們的基礎設施，並最終提高我們公司的效率。其次，在我們執行戰略時以業務為主導的投資。第三，與銷量相關的費用符合我們的收入預期。第四，高通脹主要影響薪酬支出，部分被退出帶來的生產力節約和支出收益所抵消。

And we are investing in technology across the firm with total technology-related expenses increasing by 5%. While we recognize this is a significant increase in expenses, these are investments that we have to make and I am certain that these investments will make us a better, more efficient company in the future.

我們正在整個公司投資於技術，與技術相關的總費用增加了 5%。雖然我們認識到這是費用的顯著增加，但這些是我們必須進行的投資，我相信這些投資將使我們在未來成為更好、更高效的公司。

And finally, let's talk a little bit about the medium-term targets. At Investor Day, we said the medium term was 3 to 5 years. That time frame represented 2024 to 2026. So while a lot has changed in the macro environment since Investor Day, our strategy has not, and we are on a path to the 11% to 12% ROTCE target in the medium term. We continue to expect top line revenue growth, material expense reduction and capital levels largely consistent with our medium-term CET1 target range to contribute to the achievement of our 11% to 12% ROTCE target. So let me walk you through where we stand today. From a revenue perspective, rates have moved much higher and at a faster pace across the globe, which accelerated NII growth. And that, coupled with the execution of our strategy, has allowed certain businesses to accelerate.

最後，讓我們談談中期目標。在投資者日，我們說中期是 3 到 5 年。該時間範圍為 2024 年至 2026 年。因此，儘管自投資者日以來宏觀環境發生了很多變化，但我們的戰略沒有發生變化，而且我們正朝著 11% 至 12% 的中期 ROTCE 目標邁進。我們繼續預計收入增長、材料費用減少和資本水平與我們的中期 CET1 目標範圍基本一致，有助於實現我們 11% 至 12% 的 ROTCE 目標。因此，讓我向您介紹我們今天所處的位置。從收入的角度來看，利率在全球範圍內以更快的速度移動得更高，這加速了 NII 的增長。再加上我們戰略的執行，某些業務得以加速發展。

At the same time, other businesses such as wealth and investment banking have slowed. Despite this, consistent with Investor Day, we expect a 4% to 5% revenue CAGR in the medium term, including the ongoing reduction of revenue from the closing of the exit. From an expense perspective, as we showed at Investor Day, expenses will need to normalize over the medium term. And we now expect to bend the curve on expenses towards the end of 2024. The 3 main drivers of the necessary expense reduction will be benefits from the exit, which will be included in legacy franchise the benefits from our investments in transformation and control and the simplification of the organizational structure.

與此同時，財富和投資銀行等其他業務放緩。儘管如此，與投資者日一致，我們預計中期的收入複合年增長率為 4% 至 5%，包括因退出關閉而持續減少的收入。從費用的角度來看，正如我們在投資者日展示的那樣，費用需要在中期正常化。我們現在預計到 2024 年底，費用曲線將發生變化。必要費用減少的 3 個主要驅動因素將是退出帶來的好處，這將包括在遺留特許經營權中、我們在轉型和控制方面的投資帶來的好處以及簡化組織結構。

First, let me remind you, at this point, the ongoing expenses in legacy franchises are approximately $7 billion. Of the $7 billion, roughly $4 billion is transferred to the buyer upon closing or through a transition services agreement that typically lasts about a year. The remaining $3 billion relates to potentially stranded costs and wind down, which takes time to eliminate. Second, as our investment in transformation and control initiatives mature, we expect to realize efficiency as those programs transition from manually intensive processes, the technology-enabled one. And finally, we remain focused on simplifying the organization, and we expect to generate further opportunities for expense reduction in the future.

首先，讓我提醒您，在這一點上，傳統特許經營的持續支出約為 70 億美元。在這 70 億美元中，大約有 40 億美元在交割時或通過通常持續約一年的過渡服務協議轉移給買方。剩餘的 30 億美元與潛在的擱淺成本和停產有關，這需要時間來消除。其次，隨著我們對轉型和控制計劃的投資成熟，我們希望隨著這些程序從手動密集型流程過渡到技術支持流程，實現效率提升。最後，我們仍然專注於簡化組織，我們希望在未來產生進一步的開支削減機會。

From a credit perspective, we still expect net credit losses to continue to normalize and any future ACL build or releases will be a function of macro assumption and volume. So to wrap up, while the world has changed significantly and the components have shifted, we remain on our path to achieve the 11% to 12% ROTCE in the medium term. And Jane, the rest of the firm and I, are prepared to continue to show proof points along the way and demonstrate our progress. With that, Jane and I will be happy to take your questions.

從信用的角度來看，我們仍然預計淨信用損失將繼續正常化，未來任何 ACL 的建立或釋放都將取決於宏觀假設和交易量。因此，總而言之，雖然世界發生了巨大變化，組成部分也發生了變化，但我們仍在努力在中期實現 11% 至 12% 的 ROTCE。簡、公司的其他人和我，準備繼續展示一路走來的證據，展示我們的進步。這樣，簡和我將很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

Definitely appreciate all these outlooks. They're very helpful. So my question on the outlook is if you take a look at the current medium-sized return on tangible and getting to your target. I heard many comments about the path to getting there is on track. Is it the expense spend at the end of '24, that is the material step-up from here to there, if you will, and/or is credit like a really big determinant in the process? So I'm trying to bridge the gap just in numbers from today's return on tangible targets.

絕對欣賞所有這些前景。他們非常樂於助人。所以我對前景的問題是，如果你看一下目前有形的中等回報並達到你的目標。我聽到很多關於實現目標的道路正在走上正軌的評論。是 24 年底的費用支出，如果你願意的話，這是從這裡到那裡的物質提升，和/或在這個過程中，信貸是一個非常重要的決定因素嗎？因此，我正試圖從今天的有形目標回報中彌補數字上的差距。

Yes, sure. Glenn, thanks for the question. So we did give you some guidance here. We gave it to you both on the top line and the middle line for '23. And then importantly, when we talk about the medium term, it's both the continued revenue growth, the 4% to 5% CAGR that I referenced, but it's also bringing the expenses down from this '23 forecast. And I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the drivers of what's going to bring these expenses down, the combination of the exit of the businesses and the expenses going away associated with that with the benefits that we start to generate from the transformation spend and then org simplification that this type of strategic restructuring, if you will, in exiting all these countries will create an opportunity for. And so it's a combination of revenue growth, expense bending of that curve and coming down. The cost of credit is kind of as we've been talking about for some time now, which is it normalizes over the next couple of years at levels that are consistent with what we've seen kind of prior to this COVID cycle that we've been managing through.

是的，當然。格倫，謝謝你的提問。所以我們確實在這裡給了你一些指導。我們在 23 年的頂線和中線都給了你。然後重要的是，當我們談論中期時，這既是收入的持續增長，我提到的 4% 到 5% 的複合年增長率，但它也使支出低於 23 年的預測。我在準備好的發言中提到，降低這些費用的驅動因素，企業退出和與之相關的費用減少，以及我們開始從轉型支出中產生的收益，然後組織簡化這種類型的戰略重組，如果你願意的話，在退出所有這些國家時將為之創造機會。因此，這是收入增長、曲線費用彎曲和下降的結合。信貸成本有點像我們一段時間以來一直在談論的那樣，它會在未來幾年內正常化，其水平與我們在這個 COVID 週期之前所看到的水平一致，我們'一直在管理。

Okay. I appreciate that. Just one quick follow-up on (inaudible) not my norm, but I normally try to respect this type of process. But Mark, we consider your super important part of this transformation. There's been news out there that you're talking to (inaudible). But would you be able to make any comments? You mentioned (inaudible).

好的。我很感激。只是對（聽不清）的快速跟進不是我的規範，但我通常會盡量尊重這種類型的流程。但是馬克，我們認為你是這個轉變中非常重要的部分。那裡有消息說你正在與（聽不清）交談。但你能發表任何評論嗎？你提到了（聽不清）。

I appreciate that, Glenn. Citi is an important firm. I'm the CFO of this firm and this strategy is something that I'm focused on with Jane, ensuring that we execute on right and in a way that creates shareholder value for our investors. And so we're committed to getting that done.

我很感激，格倫。花旗是一家重要的公司。我是這家公司的首席財務官，這個戰略是我和簡一起關注的，確保我們以正確的方式執行並為我們的投資者創造股東價值。因此，我們致力於完成這項工作。

Together.

一起。

Together.

一起。

Our next question will come from John McDonald with Autonomous Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Autonomous Research 的 John McDonald。

Mark, I wanted to dig into the revenue outlook for 2023. You've got about the midpoint, it kind of implies about 4% revenue growth this year, kind of consistent with what you talked about for that 4% to 5%. So for this year, the 2023 guide, it looks like the NII is guided to be up about 3.5% and the markets you're assuming kind of flat. So what's enabling you to get to the 4%? Where are the drivers that are above 4%? Is it some of those fee businesses? And just a little more color there would be helpful.

馬克，我想深入了解 2023 年的收入前景。你已經了解了中點，這有點意味著今年收入增長約 4%，與你所說的 4% 到 5% 的增長基本一致。因此，對於今年的 2023 年指南，NII 似乎被引導上漲約 3.5%，而您假設的市場持平。那麼，是什麼讓您達到了 4%？超過 4% 的驅動程序在哪裡？是那些收費業務嗎？再多一點顏色會有幫助。

Sure. So let me make a comment first on the NII. Just keep in mind with that number that I've given on the page is both the growth that occurs in some of our important services businesses, and that really comes from both the annualization of rate increases that we saw in the back half of the year but also expected continue increases, particularly outside of the U.S. And given the make-up of our franchise, we will -- that will contribute to the NII growth. And then keep in mind that we're growing over the legacy franchise reductions in NII that we would see in 2023.

當然。所以讓我先對NII發表評論。請記住，我在頁面上給出的數字既是我們一些重要服務業務的增長，也是來自我們在今年下半年看到的年化利率增長但也預計會繼續增長，尤其是在美國以外的地區。考慮到我們特許經營權的構成，我們將——這將有助於 NII 的增長。然後請記住，我們正在為我們將在 2023 年看到的 NII 遺留特許經營權減少而增長。

So underneath that is some real momentum in the NII, notwithstanding a slower pace, the fact that it would be a slower pace than what we saw in 2022. From an NIR point of view, I did mention that we do expect to see some normalization in market valuation. And that would play out both in banking, normalizing certainly relative to what we saw this year with while it's down 50% to 60% as well as some normalization in wealth and those would hit the NIR line, as you point out.

因此，在這之下是 NII 的一些真正動力，儘管速度較慢，但事實上它會比我們在 2022 年看到的速度慢。從 NIR 的角度來看，我確實提到我們確實希望看到一些正常化在市場估值方面。這將在銀行業中發揮作用，當然相對於我們今年看到的正常化，同時它下降了 50% 到 60%，以及財富的一些正常化，正如你指出的那樣，這些將達到 NIR 線。

Okay. And then -- sorry, if this is clear already. But just in terms of the idea of the cost curve bending at the end of 2024. Is that going to mean that for the early part of 2024, expenses kind of rise above 2023 and then they kind of peak out plateau towards the back half of '24. Is that how we should envision it?

好的。然後-- 抱歉，如果這已經很清楚的話。但就成本曲線在 2024 年底彎曲的想法而言。這是否意味著在 2024 年初，支出會上升到 2023 年以上，然後在 2024 年下半年達到頂峰？ '24。這是我們應該如何設想的嗎？

I'm not going to kind of get into '24 guidance. We'll kind of get through '23, and I'm confident about our ability to get to that roughly 54 number that I put out for '23. I'm equally confident that we will bend this curve, and we'll bring it down to the levels that it needs to be in order for us to get to the ROTCE target, but I'm not going to kind of get into, John, the specifics of '24 except to say that by the end of '24, we will see that curve bending.

我不打算進入 24 世紀指南。我們會度過 23 年，我相信我們有能力達到我為 23 年設定的大約 54 個數字。我同樣有信心我們會扭轉這條曲線，我們會將其降低到達到 ROTCE 目標所需的水平，但我不打算進入，約翰，'24 的具體細節只是說到'24 年底，我們將看到曲線彎曲。

Our next question will come from Erika Najarian with UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Erika Najarian。

My first question is -- again, thank you for all the clarification on the slide. Great job, Jane and Mark, obviously. But as we think about what it means to bend the curve, I think your investors are appreciative that you are accelerating the investments relative to your transformation. As we think about when Citi can hit that medium-term ROTCE, how should we think about what's bending the curve really means? And I'm not looking for guidance necessarily, but as we think about going past that hump, what's the better way of measuring? Should we -- is it an efficiency ratio? I think you mentioned something like it is the 60% to 63% efficiency ratio against that 4% to 5% revenue CAGR that you think you'll be able to hit by 2025? Can we think of it that way?

我的第一個問題是——再次感謝您在幻燈片上所做的所有說明。幹得好，簡和馬克，顯然。但當我們思考彎曲曲線意味著什麼時，我認為你的投資者很感激你正在加速與你的轉型相關的投資。當我們思考花旗何時可以達到中期 ROTCE 時，我們應該如何思考彎曲曲線的真正含義？我不一定要尋求指導，但當我們考慮越過那個駝峰時，更好的衡量方法是什麼？我們應該——它是一個效率比嗎？我想你提到過類似的東西是 60% 到 63% 的效率比與你認為到 2025 年可以達到的 4% 到 5% 的收入複合年增長率？我們可以這樣想嗎？

Yes. So at Investor Day, we did talk about it, and we remain consistent and committed to that. We talked about getting to an efficiency ratio that's less than 60% in the medium-term period. And so that certainly will be part of the metric that we deliver on as we bring our costs down. I think the other thing I'd mention just you mentioned the how, and I think there are a couple of important aspects that the exits are obvious in terms of those costs going away, at least a portion of it is. The portion that's tied to stranded costs, Jane has been very, very clear with our entire management team of the importance of rethinking the organization and ensuring that the potentially stranded costs go away, and that means rethinking the way we do business and the way we operate different parts of our operations.

是的。因此，在投資者日，我們確實討論過它，並且我們始終如一併致力於此。我們談到了在中期達到低於 60% 的效率比。因此，當我們降低成本時，這肯定會成為我們交付的指標的一部分。我想我要提到的另一件事就是你提到瞭如何，我認為有幾個重要的方面，就這些成本的消失而言，退出是顯而易見的，至少有一部分是。與擱淺成本相關的部分，Jane 與我們的整個管理團隊非常非常清楚重新思考組織並確保潛在擱淺成本消失的重要性，這意味著重新思考我們開展業務的方式以及我們的方式經營我們業務的不同部分。

I think the third piece is that technology, right? And so right now, a lot of what we're doing is manual. And as we continue to invest in technology -- and technology is up pretty significantly this year, 14% or so, we expect it to be up 5% next year. That technology build-out, if you will, will allow for us to reduce a lot of that manual activity, and that will bring down the operational cost for running the firm. And so those are a couple of examples, I hope, of the how. But I think importantly, you will start to see it in an improved operating efficiency over that period of time and getting to the target that we talked about at Investor Day.

我認為第三部分是技術，對嗎？所以現在，我們正在做的很多事情都是手動的。隨著我們繼續投資於技術——今年技術增長非常顯著，14% 左右，我們預計明年將增長 5%。如果你願意的話，這種技術擴建將使我們能夠減少大量的人工活動，這將降低運營公司的運營成本。因此，我希望這些只是幾個例子。但我認為重要的是，你會開始看到它在那段時間裡提高了運營效率，並達到了我們在投資者日談到的目標。

And I would say you can get some confidence around the past on many of these by the urgency with which we're executing the divestitures, for example, on getting those transactions closed. And we've also tried to provide you as much clarity as possible about the timing of when these will be closing and the speed of the wind downs that we're executing. So that will help. As Mark said, it's 3 big structural drivers of what will be in that curve.

我想說的是，通過我們執行資產剝離的緊迫性，例如，在關閉這些交易時，你可以對其中許多過去充滿信心。我們還試圖讓您盡可能清楚地了解這些關閉的時間以及我們正在執行的停電速度。所以這會有所幫助。正如馬克所說，這是該曲線中的三大結構性驅動因素。

And Mark, I'm sorry, for misspeaking. I was looking at the (inaudible). I have like 15 slides open in the computer. The second question, and maybe just Jane, I think that your investors have appreciated your sense of urgency with regards to the divestitures. I think the elephant in the room continues to be, I think, investors sort of expected an announcement on Banamex right now. And I'm wondering if you're still considering just selling Banamex. Or are you thinking about different options on the table, such as an IPO?

馬克，對不起，我說錯了。我在看（聽不清）。我在電腦上打開了 15 張幻燈片。第二個問題，也許只是簡，我認為你的投資者已經理解你對資產剝離的緊迫感。我認為房間裡的大象仍然是，我認為，投資者現在有點期待 Banamex 的公告。我想知道你是否還在考慮只出售 Banamex。或者您正在考慮桌面上的不同選項，例如首次公開募股？

So we're in active dialogue at the moment. So I'm obviously not going to comment in great detail here. We do continue to pursue a dual path as you'd expect, because both are very viable options here. And when we are in a position to give you clarity but we will do so. I think we've been fairly clear about the timing. We are also separating out the 2 franchises, our institutional franchise from the consumer franchise that we're selling because we see the institutional franchise is a very important part of the global network. As you can imagine, in today's environment, Mexico is key for many of our corporate clients around the world for their supply chains. And we play a very important role there. That is a lot of work in that separation. I'm extremely pleased with the progress that we're making in that underlying work. But we are pursuing the dual tracks and when we have something to announce, we will be delighted to do so.

所以我們目前正在進行積極的對話。所以我顯然不會在這裡詳細評論。正如您所期望的那樣，我們確實繼續追求雙重路徑，因為兩者都是非常可行的選擇。當我們能夠為您提供清晰的信息時，我們會這樣做。我認為我們已經很清楚時間安排了。我們還將兩個特許經營權分開，我們的機構特許經營權與我們出售的消費者特許經營權，因為我們認為機構特許經營權是全球網絡中非常重要的一部分。可以想像，在當今環境下，墨西哥對於我們全球許多企業客戶的供應鏈而言至關重要。我們在那裡扮演著非常重要的角色。在這種分離中需要做很多工作。我對我們在基礎工作中取得的進展感到非常高興。但我們正在追求雙軌制，當我們有什麼要宣布的時候，我們會很高興這樣做。

Our next question will come from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

I'm still trying to get over at this revenue and expense guidance. so you're implying you'll have at a minimum flat operating leverage or positive operating leverage for 2023? Am I reading that correctly? So on the one hand, you're not bending the cost curve until late 2024. On the other hand, you're guiding for positive operating leverage in 2023. Am I reading that correctly?

我仍在努力克服這種收入和支出指導。所以你是在暗示你將在 2023 年至少擁有持平的經營槓桿或積極的經營槓桿？我讀對了嗎？因此，一方面，您要到 2024 年底才會彎曲成本曲線。另一方面，您正在指導 2023 年的積極運營槓桿。我讀得對嗎？

Mike, when you do the math, I don't think it will get to the positive operating leverage in 2023. But we are, as you see on the slide, targeting a range that does reflect growth in the top line. That growth will likely be a little bit less than the growth that 54 number would -- roughly 54 number would suggest but we are on the right track. And we are getting there in a way that's consistent with the strategy that we talked about. And we do feel confident in our ability to deliver on the guidance that we've put out here similar to delivering on the guidance we gave last year, recognizing there are a lot of things going on in the broader environment.

邁克，當你計算時，我認為它不會在 2023 年達到積極的經營槓桿。但正如你在幻燈片上看到的那樣，我們的目標範圍確實反映了頂線的增長。這種增長可能會略低於 54 數字的增長——大約 54 數字表明，但我們走在正確的軌道上。我們正在以一種與我們談到的戰略一致的方式實現這一目標。我們確實相信我們有能力提供我們在這裡提出的指導，類似於提供我們去年提供的指導，認識到在更廣泛的環境中發生了很多事情。

Okay. And then a second follow-up -- or a follow-up, and then I'll requeue for my other question. Your CET1 ratio is 13% now. And I think that's 2 quarters earlier than consensus had expected. You said it was up 70 basis points. So doesn't that allow you to repurchase stock now? Or I understand that if you go ahead and sell Banamex, that could have a temporary negative capital hit. So I'm just thinking like don't sell Banamex, don't have that temporary capital hit, start buying back stock at a fraction of your tangible book value. So what's wrong with my logic or what part of that can you comment on?

好的。然後是第二次跟進——或跟進，然後我將重新排隊回答我的其他問題。你的 CET1 比率現在是 13%。而且我認為這比共識預期的要早 2 個季度。你說它上漲了 70 個基點。那麼，這不允許您現在回購股票嗎？或者我知道，如果你繼續出售 Banamex，那可能會造成暫時的負資本衝擊。所以我只是想不要出售 Banamex，不要受到暫時的資本衝擊，開始以你有形賬面價值的一小部分回購股票。那麼我的邏輯有什麼問題，或者您可以評論其中的哪一部分？

I'm going to jump in on the don't sell Banamex, Mike. As you could imagine, so we are selling the consumer franchise. It does not fit with the strategy that we laid out in Investor Day. It's an emerging market consumer franchise, and we are clearly focused around the multinational clients and in institutions and high-net worth individuals with cross-border needs as we laid out very clearly and businesses that have strong connectivity across the -- between each other.

我要加入不要出售 Banamex，邁克。正如您所想像的那樣，我們正在出售消費者特許經營權。它不符合我們在投資者日制定的戰略。這是一個新興市場的消費者特許經營權，我們明確地關注跨國客戶以及具有跨境需求的機構和高淨值個人，因為我們非常清楚地佈局了彼此之間具有強大連接性的企業。

So we are -- we don't see Banamex having strategic fit in the consumer franchises in that perspective. And when we run all the math, it is in the shareholders' interest that we sell that franchise and deploy that capital to our shareholders or into some of the investments at higher returns. What you're suggesting is a very short-term move. And I think as you can see from the actions we're taking, we're very focused on our medium and long term and not taking the short-term path that we would regret in the medium and long term.

所以我們 - 從這個角度來看，我們認為 Banamex 在消費者特許經營中沒有戰略意義。當我們進行所有計算時，我們出售該特許經營權並將該資本分配給我們的股東或投入一些更高回報的投資符合股東的利益。你的建議是一個非常短期的舉動。而且我認為正如您從我們正在採取的行動中看到的那樣，我們非常關注我們的中長期，而不是走我們在中長期會後悔的短期道路。

Our next question will come from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess just one question as a follow-up on capital. As we think about post the second half of the year, let's say, you've taken the hit from Banamex. But coming out of this test, any sense, Mark, if there's any reason why Citi would have an outsized negative impact from (inaudible). Just give us a sense, I'm just wondering hopefully, we don't get another disappointment as we get (inaudible) buybacks in the back half and there's something idiosyncratic about the business mix that could come back to hurt the bank? Would love any perspective there?

我想只有一個問題是關於資本的後續行動。當我們考慮下半年之後時，假設您受到了 Banamex 的打擊。但是從這個測試中出來，馬克，如果有任何理由花旗會對（聽不清）產生巨大的負面影響。只是給我們一個感覺，我只是想知道希望，我們不會再失望，因為我們在後半部分得到（聽不清）回購，並且業務組合中有一些特殊的東西可能會回來傷害銀行？會喜歡那裡的任何觀點嗎？

Yes. So look, as we pointed out, we've built a significant amount of capital over the course of the year. We are ahead of the target we set for the middle of the year. We do have some exits that will have a temporary impact on that CET1 ratio. And we do obviously have a DFAST that's in front of us that we'll have to see what the outcome is of that work.

是的。因此，正如我們指出的那樣，我們在這一年中積累了大量資金。我們提前完成了我們為年中設定的目標。我們確實有一些退出會對 CET1 比率產生暫時的影響。很明顯，我們面前有一個 DFAST，我們必須看看這項工作的結果是什麼。

I think, look, the (inaudible) decisions on that are still outstanding. And I think we'll have to take those into consideration when they become available. That is an industry dynamic that will play out however it plays out. And similar to SACR, we'll get after it in a very significant way to make sure that we're able to handle whatever headwinds or tailwinds may come along with that. But it really is difficult at this point to opine on exactly what that means for the industry in light of the fact that there aren't final rules out just yet.

我認為，看，（聽不清）有關的決定仍然懸而未決。而且我認為我們必須在它們可用時將它們考慮在內。這是一種行業動態，它將以任何方式發揮作用。與 SACR 類似，我們將以一種非常重要的方式來處理它，以確保我們能夠處理隨之而來的任何逆風或順風。但鑑於目前還沒有最終規則，目前很難就這對行業究竟意味著什麼發表意見。

Got it. And just back to your medium-term targets. I guess if we hit that bending the curve at the end of '24, it implies that this company should have an earnings power north of $10 by '25 even at the lower end of the guidance. Am I missing anything there? Or like does that make sense?

知道了。回到你的中期目標。我想如果我們在 24 年底達到彎曲曲線，這意味著即使在指導的低端，這家公司到 25 年的盈利能力也應該超過 10 美元。我在那裡遺漏了什麼嗎？或者說這有意義嗎？

The only thing I'd point out is what we've described -- what I've described, what Jane described is the medium term is '24 through 2026. And we've given you guidance for '23. We intend to get to those return targets in the medium term. I haven't given you specific guidance on any of those individual years, and we'll kind of take that year by year. And so just factor in. I think what's important is you've got a view on '23, and I think we've given you additional clarity on how we intend to get to that medium term, and I think that's important.

我唯一要指出的是我們所描述的——我所描述的，簡所描述的中期是 24 到 2026 年。我們已經為你提供了 23 年的指導。我們打算在中期達到這些回報目標。我沒有就這些年中的任何一年給你具體的指導，我們會逐年進行。所以只是考慮因素。我認為重要的是你對 23 年有一個看法，我認為我們已經讓你更加清楚我們打算如何達到那個中期，我認為這很重要。

Our next question will come from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I did want to ask a little bit about the strategy with Personal and Wealth Management. I know Jane, earlier you talked about the fact that -- which you have announced looking for a new head to move that business forward. Could you just give us a sense as to where you think the opportunity sets are greatest within that franchise for growth because there's a bunch of different pieces. Some on the advice channel, some of the more fee channels, some of the more balance sheet piece. And you already indicated U.S. as an opportunity to expand into. So I'd just like to understand, from your perspective, which pieces are the most important to execute on. And that could help us understand how you're planning on shaping this business going forward?

我確實想問一些關於個人和財富管理的策略。我知道簡，早些時候你談到了一個事實 - 你已經宣布尋找新的負責人來推動該業務向前發展。您能否告訴我們您認為該特許經營權中增長機會最大的地方是什麼，因為有很多不同的部分。一些在諮詢渠道上，一些在收費渠道上，一些在資產負債表上。你已經表示美國是一個擴展的機會。所以我只想了解，從你的角度來看，哪些部分是最重要的。這可以幫助我們了解您計劃如何推動這項業務向前發展？

Great question, Betsy. And Mark and I are both smiling here because I think the answer is all of the above. So if we break it down, where do we see the various elements of upside? There's an important recovery that's going to occur in Asia. And you can see from our results last year, and across the board with other competitors with an Asian (inaudible) that was materially impacted by COVID in China and the lockdowns and a slower pulling out of COVID in that market compared to broadly in Asia compared to the U.S. So we see some exciting growth opportunities there from the pure fundamentals in Asia across the board.

好問題，貝琪。馬克和我都在這裡微笑，因為我認為答案就是以上所有。因此，如果我們將其分解，我們在哪裡可以看到上行的各種因素？亞洲將出現重要的複蘇。從我們去年的結果中可以看出，與亞洲（聽不清）的其他競爭對手相比，中國受到了 COVID 的重大影響，而且與整個亞洲相比，該市場的封鎖和撤出 COVID 的速度較慢到美國所以我們從亞洲的純粹基本面中看到了一些令人興奮的增長機會。

You're absolutely right, in the U.S., we start from a smaller scale there. We've been bringing the different parts of that business together. The wealth of work franchises, one that's had particularly pleasing growth in it. And we've also been seeing some good growth as we pulled a comprehensive offering together for our customers. The biggest upside there is the investment product. And I think we've got a strong balance sheet franchise as it were, particularly the deposits, some of the margin lending and the like mortgages, but this is really about the investment offering in the States.

你完全正確，在美國，我們從那裡的小規模開始。我們一直在將該業務的不同部分整合在一起。大量的工作特許經營權，其中有一個特別令人愉快的增長。隨著我們為客戶提供全面的產品，我們也看到了一些良好的增長。最大的好處是投資產品。而且我認為我們擁有強大的資產負債表專營權，特別是存款、一些保證金貸款和類似抵押貸款，但這實際上是關於美國的投資產品。

Then finally, I'd say there's also tremendous opportunity in the synergies, and we've been showing you this in terms of linkages between our commercial bank, our banking franchise, the referrals up from the U.S. Personal Banking. We've had about 60,000 referrals this year in the U.S. alone. From that, market also provides important results and even TTS. So the client referrals, there are business synergies between them common platforms. So we really see an opportunity for this multidimensional growth drivers in wealth over and above the recovery in the investment space that everybody in the market should be able to benefit from.

最後，我要說的是協同效應也有巨大的機會，我們一直在向您展示我們的商業銀行、我們的銀行特許經營權、美國個人銀行業務推薦之間的聯繫。今年僅在美國，我們就有大約 60,000 名推薦人。由此，市場也提供了重要的結果甚至 TTS。因此，客戶推薦，在他們共同的平台之間存在業務協同效應。因此，除了投資空間的複甦之外，我們確實看到了財富多維增長驅動力的機會，市場上的每個人都應該能夠從中受益。

And we'll continue investing in appropriately in building out that front line as well. So this is a very important part of our strategy. We're excited about it. It's the key pillar of the shift in business mix as we go forward as well, looking at the medium term. And we're looking forward to the next phase of growth and focus here.

我們也將繼續適當投資建設前線。所以這是我們戰略中非常重要的一部分。我們對此感到興奮。從中期來看，這也是我們向前邁進時業務組合轉變的關鍵支柱。我們期待著下一階段的增長和關注。

And would you say that the investment spend required to execute on those revenue opportunities is likely to accelerate from here? Or you've already done that investment spend and the investment is more sideways as opposed to accelerating?

你會說執行這些收入機會所需的投資支出可能會從這裡加速嗎？或者你已經完成了投資支出並且投資更多的是橫盤而不是加速？

I think, look, in this current environment, as we've said, Mark and I have both said since the -- really, the middle of last year, this is something that we're pacing, but we're continuing to invest behind it. And you can see that growth in our client advisers. And remember, that net growth in client advisers, it includes the divestiture we made in Uruguay, for example. So it's pretty strong. We don't have a huge amount that we need to invest because we have many pieces of the platform in place, and it's more been a story of integrating them and then making sure that we're putting the right (inaudible) other investments behind it, but it's not such a large one in order to achieve the upside in the business. And we'll pace that as appropriate with market conditions. Mark, anything to add?

我認為，看，在當前的環境下，正如我們所說的那樣，馬克和我都說過——真的，去年年中，這是我們正在推進的事情，但我們將繼續投資在它後面。您可以在我們的客戶顧問中看到這種增長。請記住，客戶顧問的淨增長包括我們在烏拉圭進行的資產剝離。所以它非常強大。我們不需要大量投資，因為我們有很多平台，而且更多的是整合它們，然後確保我們將正確的（聽不清）其他投資放在後面它，但為了實現業務的增長，它並不是那麼大。我們將根據市場情況適當調整步伐。馬克，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Betsy, you know this is -- in a normal part of the cycle, this is a high margin, high-returning business. And we've seen that in the past. And so we want to be well positioned for as the market turns, having brought on client advisers, having brought in new clients through client acquisitions, which were up 24% in 2022. And so I think we're well positioned for that. But as Jane mentioned, given where we are, we want to be smart about how we deploy the dollars. And so we'll replace as necessary, but ensure that we're ready for when things turn.

Betsy，你知道這是——在周期的正常部分，這是一項高利潤、高回報的業務。我們過去已經看到了這一點。因此，我們希望在市場轉變時處於有利地位，引入客戶顧問，通過客戶收購引入新客戶，這些客戶在 2022 年增長了 24%。所以我認為我們已經做好了準備。但正如 Jane 提到的，鑑於我們所處的位置，我們希望在如何部署美元方面更加明智。因此，我們將根據需要進行更換，但要確保我們為情況轉變做好準備。

And I'd just add, it was a couple of years ago that we put -- we announced the strategy and started executing on it. So we have the benefit of the historic investments that we're seeing the drivers playing out well. And as I say, well, we should be well positioned when the market turns here.

我只想補充一點，幾年前我們就宣布了戰略並開始執行。因此，我們受益於歷史性投資，我們看到司機表現良好。正如我所說，好吧，當市場轉向這裡時，我們應該處於有利位置。

Our next question will come from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Matt O'Connor。

I just want to follow up on the comments about markets to be relatively flat in '23. Obviously, a very good 4Q. And I know I was concerned about some of the RWA management and FICC in recent quarters. And I think (inaudible) to be an issue as you think about leadership and revenue. But as you think about '23, like the wallets have been strong in recent years. And to your point, your FICC leadership was strong this year. how confident are you in kind of that flat market? And maybe what's driving that view?

我只想跟進有關 23 年市場相對平穩的評論。顯然，一個非常好的 4Q。而且我知道最近幾個季度我對一些 RWA 管理和 FICC 感到擔憂。當你考慮領導力和收入時，我認為（聽不清）是一個問題。但是當你想到 23 年時，就像近年來的錢包一樣強勁。就您而言，今年您的 FICC 領導力很強。你對那種平坦的市場有多自信？也許是什麼推動了這種觀點？

It's a market business, right? And so you know very well kind of the volatility that can come with any markets business. With that said, we've got a very, very strong FICC franchise. We had a very good year, a very good year this year. I think we're well positioned with the client base, and we're well positioned to maintain our #1 position as we go into 2023.

這是市場業務，對吧？因此，您非常了解任何市場業務可能帶來的波動。話雖如此，我們擁有非常非常強大的 FICC 特許經營權。我們度過了非常美好的一年，今年是非常美好的一年。我認為我們在客戶群中處於有利地位，並且我們有能力在進入 2023 年時保持第一的位置。

Now how that market and market wallet moves, I think, is going to predicate on a number of things, including how the macro continues to evolve and how central bank activity continues to evolve and how currencies move and the like. But again, I feel like we're well positioned to hold our position, if not gain more share as that plays out. So I think flat relative to a year that we've had as significantly as it is, is a reasonable call based on what we know now.

我認為，現在市場和市場錢包的走勢將取決於許多因素，包括宏觀經濟如何繼續發展、央行活動如何繼續發展以及貨幣如何走勢等。但同樣，我覺得我們已經做好了保住自己的位置的準備，即使不能隨著比賽的進行獲得更多的份額。因此，我認為相對於我們已經經歷過的一年持平，根據我們現在所知道的情況，這是一個合理的預測。

We've also seen some depression of areas of strength in this business as well. So equity derivatives, for example, the real strength, this was an equity derivative year. So there's some -- and the corporate world with the volatility that's out there from a macro geopolitical environment is another real strength of ours. And for better or for worse, we're expecting that strength to continue, certainly (inaudible) so far.

我們還看到該業務的優勢領域也出現了一些衰退。所以股票衍生品，例如，真正的力量，這是一個股票衍生品年。所以有一些 - 宏觀地緣政治環境中存在波動的企業界是我們的另一個真正優勢。不管是好是壞，我們預計這種力量會持續下去，當然（聽不清）到目前為止。

Our next question will come from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Global 的 Jim Mitchell。

Mark, maybe just digging into NII a little bit. If you look at 4Q annualized, you have a decent step down -- but when you take a look at your deposit franchise, your mix of business, versus your peers, where they're seeing probably lagging retail deposits in the U.S., pricing that's going to hurt second half NII (inaudible) high betas, mostly institutional. You mentioned the benefit from non-U.S. rates and you're growing deposits. So why sort of the -- a similar trend in NII versus peers when you have a pretty different dynamic going on? Just trying to think that through because it doesn't look like the legacy you drag is very big in your chart?

馬克，也許只是深入研究一下 NII。如果你看一下 4Q 年化，你有一個不錯的下降 - 但當你看看你的存款特許經營權，你的業務組合與你的同行相比，他們看到美國的零售存款可能滯後，定價是將傷害下半年 NII（聽不清）高貝塔值，主要是機構。您提到了非美國利率的好處，並且您正在增加存款。那麼，為什麼當你有一個非常不同的動態時，為什麼 NII 與同行有類似的趨勢？只是想仔細想想，因為它看起來不像你拖動的遺產在你的圖表中很大？

Similar dynamics you say in '23 or you're talking about the fourth quarter. I'm not sure I followed.

你在 23 年說的類似動態或者你在談論第四季度。我不確定我是否遵循了。

No, I'm just trying to talk about versus peers, some have guided similarly to down from 4Q annualized run rates, but you have a very different dynamic in terms of deposit growth benefits from non-U.S. rates and a much higher beta.

不，我只是想談談與同行的比較，有些人的指引類似地低於第四季度的年化運行率，但在存款增長受益於非美國利率和更高的 beta 方面，你有一個非常不同的動態。

Right. Yes. So I think -- I mean I think I'd point to a couple of things on the NII side, just as it relates to us. One, importantly, that I mentioned in and you point out is when you think about our mix of deposits, we've got about 65% or so in ICG and the balance, 35% in our PBWM business.

正確的。是的。所以我想 - 我的意思是我想我會指出 NII 方面的一些事情，就像它與我們有關一樣。一個重要的是，我在其中提到並且你指出的是，當你考慮我們的存款組合時，我們在 ICG 和余額中有大約 65% 左右，在我們的 PBWM 業務中有 35%。

We certainly skew to U.S. dollar, but we've got a 30% or so that is a non-U.S. dollar. And when I think about the potential or the forward curves and how rates will likely move next year, we will get the benefit of further rate increases on the non-U.S. side, right? And so if I think about our international presence, the betas tend to not be as high as they are here in the U.S. with our Corporate Clients segment. And so I think there's some repricing opportunities that we'll continue to actively manage as we did here in the U.S.

我們當然傾向於美元，但我們有 30% 左右是非美元。當我考慮潛在或遠期曲線以及明年利率可能如何變動時，我們將受益於非美國方面的進一步加息，對嗎？因此，如果我考慮我們的國際影響力，貝塔值往往不如在美國與我們的企業客戶部門的貝塔值一樣高。因此，我認為我們將繼續積極管理一些重新定價的機會，就像我們在美國所做的那樣。

And so I do think it's that international footprint, the globality of our franchise that plays to our strength in 2023. The other thing that is apparent to us as we forecast this out is the continued growth from a volume point of view. And that volume growth, you've seen the momentum already pick up on the card side with significant growth in interest-earning balances. And we'd expect that to continue, particularly as we see NCLs normalize and as we see payment rates start to temper. And so I think those things will be 2 major contributors. Mix is obviously a factor. As you point out, we will be growing over some of the drag or reduction from legacy. But it's that active management of the client engagement that we have across both portfolios that I think will be important factors to us delivering the growth that I talked about.

因此，我確實認為是國際足跡，我們特許經營權的全球性在 2023 年發揮了我們的實力。我們預測這一點時，另一件對我們來說顯而易見的事情是從數量的角度來看持續增長。在交易量增長方面，你已經看到信用卡方面的勢頭已經回升，生息餘額顯著增長。我們預計這種情況會繼續下去，尤其是當我們看到 NCL 正常化並且我們看到支付率開始下降時。所以我認為這些東西將是兩個主要貢獻者。混合顯然是一個因素。正如您所指出的，我們將在一些遺留的拖累或減少中成長。但我認為，正是我們在兩個投資組合中對客戶參與的積極管理將成為我們實現我所說的增長的重要因素。

No, that's all fair. But I guess maybe I didn't phrase my question right, but I felt it ex markets, I think your forecast for 2023 would be less than the 4Q run rate ex markets and yet you just...

不，這很公平。但我想也許我沒有正確表述我的問題，但我在市場前感覺到了，我認為你對 2023 年的預測將低於市場前第四季度的運行率，但你只是......

Sorry, finish your question. I'm sorry.

對不起，完成你的問題。對不起。

Well, just you shared a bunch of reasons why you have sort of a differentiated franchise. So I'm just trying to get a sense of what's driving the decline from 4Q levels.

好吧，剛才你分享了你擁有差異化特許經營權的一系列原因。所以我只是想了解是什麼推動了第四季度水平的下降。

I think the thing you've got to pick up is really the legacy franchise and the NII. A large part of the legacy franchise revenues are NII revenues when you look at the mix of the products and the clients that we cover there. And so I think that's the important element here that we haven't quantified to a dollar amount, but that is explaining why it seems like muted growth relative to what you would have seen in the fourth quarter. Obviously, there's other factors, but that's important.

我認為你必須拿起的東西真的是傳統的特許經營權和 NII。當您查看我們在那裡覆蓋的產品和客戶的組合時，很大一部分遺留特許經營收入是 NII 收入。因此，我認為這是我們尚未量化為美元數量的重要因素，但這解釋了為什麼相對於您在第四季度看到的情況而言，它似乎增長緩慢。顯然，還有其他因素，但這很重要。

Our next question will come from Gerard Cassidy with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自 RBC 資本市場的 Gerard Cassidy。

Mark, can you share with us on your comments regarding -- and this is true for your peers as well, the normalization of credit losses going forward since the industry has experienced incredibly low levels of credit losses. So when you look at branded cards or retail sales, retail services, how do you see that progressing through '23? One of your peers pointed out that they think that by the end of '23, they may be at that normalization rate that they look to for their numbers, but I'm just trying to see what the trajectory is for what you guys are thinking.

馬克，你能否與我們分享你的評論——這對你的同行來說也是如此，因為該行業的信用損失水平非常低，因此未來的信用損失正常化。因此，當您查看品牌卡或零售、零售服務時，您如何看待 23 年的進展？您的一位同行指出，他們認為到 23 年底，他們可能會達到他們希望獲得數字的正常化率，但我只是想看看你們的想法是什麼軌跡.

Yes. Let me jump in and then I'll hand it over to Mark. I think we are expecting under the current trajectory to see the loss rates to reach the pre-COVID levels more at the year-end, early '24 level. If you think of branded cards, if I was to quantify, it is 20% of the way there now. CRS, we're about 40% of the way there now. Obviously, we have the benefit in CRS of sharing of the loss sharing with our partners that helps us. But I hope that gives you a sense around it, probably the most important driver that we've been worried about, it was very uncertain with what was happening with payment rates. And I think we've got much more clarity as they started that normalization path -- so that's driving a fair amount of more certainty around what the direction is happening there. Frankly, the big question is more what's happening with spending than it is with the normalization right now. It's a bigger uncertainty. But Mark, any other observations?

是的。讓我跳進去，然後我會把它交給馬克。我認為我們預計在目前的軌跡下，損失率將在年底、24 年初的水平上更多地達到 COVID 之前的水平。如果你想到品牌卡，如果我要量化的話，現在是 20%。 CRS，我們現在已經完成了大約 40%。顯然，我們在 CRS 中有與幫助我們的合作夥伴分擔損失分擔的好處。但我希望這能讓你了解它，這可能是我們一直擔心的最重要的驅動因素，支付率的變化非常不確定。而且我認為，當他們開始正常化路徑時，我們已經更加清晰了——因此，這使得人們對那裡發生的方向有了更多的確定性。坦率地說，與正常化相比，現在最大的問題更多是支出方面發生了什麼。這是一個更大的不確定性。但是馬克，還有其他觀察結果嗎？

The only thing I'd add is that, Gerard, you could see just depending on how this plays out, you could see kind of NCL rates tick up above normal levels and then come back down to normal levels in the time line that Jane described, again, just depending on how the macro factors continue to play out. But again, we -- as we sit here and talk about these NPL rates, it's important to point out as well that we're very well reserved across all of these portfolios -- and so to some extent, if you put macro assumptions aside and volumes aside, the NPLs kind of get funded by the reserves that have been established. But the trend line is exactly as Jane described, just recognizing that you could see a tick-up above normal levels and then it come back down.

我唯一要補充的是，杰拉德，你可以看到，根據情況如何，你可以看到某種 NCL 率上升到正常水平以上，然後在 Jane 描述的時間線中回落到正常水平，同樣，這取決於宏觀因素如何繼續發揮作用。但是，我們——當我們坐在這裡討論這些不良貸款率時，同樣重要的是要指出我們對所有這些投資組合都非常謹慎——所以在某種程度上，如果你把宏觀假設放在一邊撇開數量不談，不良貸款的資金來源是已建立的儲備金。但趨勢線與 Jane 所描述的完全一樣，只是認識到您可以看到高於正常水平的上升，然後又回落。

Also this is such an unusual market in the sense that you've got such strong labor market, driven by, frankly, supply shortage over as much as demand. And we've also got the consumers with still very high savings that they're dipping into, and we're seeing a bit more of the movements happening at the bottom end of all of this -- but this is not going to be like a normal recession (inaudible) will be about the manageability and the mildness of that likely if we do have one.

此外，從某種意義上說，這是一個如此不尋常的市場，坦率地說，勞動力市場如此強勁，供應短缺和需求一樣多。而且我們還讓消費者的儲蓄仍然非常高，他們正在投入其中，而且我們看到所有這些活動的底部發生了更多的變化——但這不會像正常的衰退（聽不清）將是關於可管理性和溫和性的，如果我們真的有的話。

And what kind of unemployment rates -- are you guys assuming going into that kind of trajectory? Is it -- we get the 5% unemployment by first quarter '24?

什麼樣的失業率——你們假設進入那種軌跡？是嗎——到 24 年第一季度我們的失業率達到 5%？

I think a couple of things. So one, our base case scenario, if you think about what we just talked about includes kind of a mild recession in it, just as we forecasted it. The downside would be something a bit more severe than that. I'd say we're reserved for approximately a 5% unemployment rate just kind of overall when you look at -- when you average across the different scenarios that we have.

我想幾件事。因此，我們的基本情景，如果你考慮一下我們剛才談到的內容，就會像我們預測的那樣，其中包括一種溫和的衰退。缺點會比這更嚴重。我想說的是，當你對我們所擁有的不同情景進行平均時，我們為大約 5% 的失業率保留了總體水平。

Our next question will come from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just 2 quick questions. First one, just on cards, the card NIM has been kind of flattish. And I know that obviously it has to do with just how you internally allocate the funding towards it. But can you just kind of talk us through what's happening either with rewards or either incremental teaser rates on some of the new relationships? And should we see the card NIM expand from here?

只需 2 個快速問題。第一個，就卡片而言，NIM 卡片有點扁平化。而且我知道這顯然與您如何在內部為其分配資金有關。但是你能不能告訴我們一些新關係的獎勵或遞增的挑逗率正在發生什麼？我們應該看到 NIM 卡從這裡擴展嗎？

Yes. I'm not going to get into, Ken, kind of guidance on NIM. What I will say is that we have seen good traction in the early part of the year as it relates to acquisitions on the card side. We've made very good traction. And Jane, you may want to comment on kind of the relationships that we have with some of the partners and with American. And we've also launched a number of new products that I think is helping to fuel the growth that we've seen on the heels of those investments and some of the increase that we've seen in spend rates as well as some of the average interest-earning balance and loan growth that we've seen. But I really don't want to get into the NIM guidance at the card level or the aggregate at this point. .

是的。 Ken，我不打算討論有關 NIM 的指導。我要說的是，我們在今年年初看到了良好的牽引力，因為它與卡片方面的收購有關。我們取得了很好的牽引力。簡，你可能想評論一下我們與一些合作夥伴和美國航空的關係。我們還推出了一些新產品，我認為這些產品有助於推動我們在這些投資之後看到的增長，以及我們看到的支出率的一些增長以及一些我們看到的平均生息餘額和貸款增長。但我真的不想在卡片級別或此時匯總進入 NIM 指南。 .

Yes. I mean we have a fabulous cards franchise. And when we look at strong track record in the digital, the other innovations that are driving growth, driving the profitability, driving the returns both in our proprietary products as well as with our partners. And we're really seeing all of those drivers performing very, very strongly at the moment. From custom cash, it was 28% of new account acquisition. So an important new product refresh that's driving things, 80% of customers engaging digitally.

是的。我的意思是我們有很棒的紙牌專營權。當我們查看數字領域的良好記錄時，其他創新正在推動增長，推動盈利能力，推動我們專有產品以及我們合作夥伴的回報。我們真的看到所有這些車手目前都表現得非常非常強勁。來自定制現金，佔新客戶獲取的 28%。因此，一項重要的新產品更新正在推動事物發展，80% 的客戶以數字方式參與。

Innovations like America is just a fantastic partner of ours, really taking that to the next level. And you can see that with the growth in spend in the category. So I think there's a lot of reasons to be pretty excited about the growth in the return and the margins and the other trajectory here. And as I say, a prime portfolio, which is always a good thing.

像美國這樣的創新是我們的絕佳合作夥伴，真正將其提升到一個新的水平。隨著該類別支出的增長，您可以看到這一點。所以我認為有很多理由對回報和利潤率的增長以及這裡的其他軌跡感到非常興奮。正如我所說，一個主要的投資組合，這總是一件好事。

Great. And my second question was, there was an article about changing management up in the wealth management business this week. And I just wonder if you can talk about that, but also just about the progress that you're making inside the wealth management relative to your -- the KPIs and the goals that you've discussed at Analyst Day.

偉大的。我的第二個問題是，本周有一篇關於改變財富管理業務管理的文章。我只是想知道你是否可以談論這個，但也只是關於你在財富管理內部取得的進展相對於你的 - KPI 和你在分析師日討論的目標。

Well, sure. I mean, 2 years ago, I asked Jim O'Donnell to put the wealth business together from the various components that we had around the firm. And now as we move to the next phase, but as we've said, a strategically important business, I thought it was the right time to change the leadership also because Jim is going to play an important role moving forward, supporting (inaudible) the ICG strategy that we laid out at Investor Day. He's got a lot of relationship with investors, family offices, private equity, sovereign wealth funds, and he's going to be helping drive those along with other investors to make sure we bring the firm's full capabilities to these clients. So I felt the time was right to make the move. And we will be, as indicated, strictly moving to go out and have a look for our next leader of that business. And in the meantime, business as usual as we grow and follow the strategy that we have, and we're looking forward to the market turning, as I'm sure everyone is and feel that we're well positioned to do so.

嗯，當然。我的意思是，2 年前，我請 Jim O'Donnell 將財富業務與我們公司的各個組成部分整合在一起。現在我們進入下一階段，但正如我們所說，這是一項具有戰略意義的重要業務，我認為現在是改變領導層的正確時機，因為吉姆將在前進中發揮重要作用，支持（聽不清）我們在投資者日制定的 ICG 戰略。他與投資者、家族辦公室、私募股權、主權財富基金建立了很多關係，他將與其他投資者一起幫助推動這些，以確保我們將公司的全部能力帶給這些客戶。所以我覺得是時候採取行動了。正如所指出的那樣，我們將嚴格走出去尋找我們下一任該業務的領導者。與此同時，隨著我們的成長和遵循我們擁有的戰略，業務照常進行，我們期待著市場的轉變，因為我相信每個人都認為我們有能力這樣做。

Your next question will come from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

This is actually (inaudible) for Steven. Just on the topic of credit, one of your peers noted this morning that they would expect to see an incremental $6 billion or so of reserves if they assume 6% unemployment under CECL. Can you -- just wondering if you could provide some similar sensitivity to reserve levels, and how should we think about the provision trajectory versus the 4Q base based on your macro outlook and potential growth (inaudible)?

這實際上是（聽不清）史蒂文。就信貸話題而言，您的一位同行今天早上指出，如果他們假設 CECL 下的失業率為 6%，他們預計會看到增加 60 億美元左右的準備金。你能不能 - 只是想知道你是否可以提供一些類似的準備金水平敏感性，我們應該如何根據你的宏觀前景和潛在增長（聽不清）來考慮準備金軌跡與第四季度基數？

Yes, -- why don't I take that? I'm not going to kind of do sensitivity scenarios with you here on the fly. What I will say is that as we build these reserves, we are building them against 3 scenarios, that base scenario that I mentioned, the downside scenario and upside scenario, and we weight those scenarios. And the base that we used this quarter built in a mild recession. And in that baseline, unemployment was, call it, 4.4% or so in terms of the unemployment assumption. We also had a downside scenario. Unemployment in the downside scenario got to a 6.9% or so. And then we had an upside scenario. The weighted average across the quarters was about the 5.1 that I mentioned. And those were factors that went into the reserve that we established in the quarter. And largely, when you think about the weightings we put on those scenarios, the weighting skewed towards that base and that downside. The reserve we built this quarter was largely in the consumer business, PBWM and specifically around cards. And that really had to do the change quarter-over-quarter with the change in HPI. But what I would say is that it also reflects, as I mentioned earlier, a cards portfolio that remains of a very good quality and with loss rates that are well below what they would be in a normal cycle. And it does pick up the fact that there's volume growth that we saw in the quarter there. So I'm not going to kind of run scenarios for you, but hopefully, that gives you some perspective as to what's underneath the models that we've used to establish these reserves. And obviously, we do that on a quarter-by-quarter basis.

是的——我為什麼不接受呢？我不會在這里和你一起做一些敏感的場景。我要說的是，當我們建立這些儲備時，我們是根據 3 種情景建立它們的，我提到的基本情景，下行情景和上行情景，我們對這些情景進行加權。我們本季度使用的基礎建立在溫和的衰退中。在該基線中，根據失業假設，失業率為 4.4% 左右。我們也有不利的情況。下行情況下的失業率達到 6.9% 左右。然後我們有一個好的情況。各季度的加權平均值約為我提到的 5.1。這些都是我們在本季度建立的儲備金的因素。在很大程度上，當你考慮我們對這些情景的權重時，權重會偏向於那個基礎和那個缺點。我們在本季度建立的儲備金主要用於消費者業務、PBWM，特別是圍繞卡片。這確實必須隨著 HPI 的變化而逐季發生變化。但我要說的是，正如我之前提到的，它也反映了卡片組合的質量仍然非常好，損失率遠低於正常週期。它確實反映了我們在該季度看到的銷量增長這一事實。所以我不會為你運行場景，但希望這能讓你對我們用來建立這些儲備的模型背後的內容有一些看法。顯然，我們是按季度進行的。

I'd also just jump in, one of the areas that sometimes gets (inaudible) about the firm, is on the corporate credit side. When we look at our corporate client portfolio, don't equate where we take credit risk with the global footprint. When I look internationally, 90% of our international exposure with multinational firms and their subsidiaries, and these are all in the business investment grade. I think that's another area where as we look at the quality of the corporate loan portfolio, as you saw with Russia and others, we will be conservative in the reserving we take. But I think important to understand the nature of where we take that corporate credit risk.

我也只是跳進去，有時（聽不清）關於公司的領域之一是在公司信貸方面。當我們審視我們的企業客戶組合時，不要將我們承擔信用風險的地方等同於全球足跡。當我放眼國際時，我們 90% 的國際業務與跨國公司及其子公司有關，這些都屬於商業投資級別。我認為這是另一個領域，當我們審視企業貸款組合的質量時，就像你在俄羅斯和其他國家看到的那樣，我們將在準備金方面持保守態度。但我認為了解我們承擔企業信用風險的性質很重要。

That's really helpful. And then as a follow-up, it seems like a part of your revenue targets for 2023 depends on some improvement in the environment. For example, stabilizing equity markets, IB rebound? And Jane, you also noted that the medium-term targets are designed to be achievable in different environments. So if the revenue backdrop continues to be challenged like we saw in 2022, can you just talk about some of the levers you might be able to pull that might provide an offset?

這真的很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，您 2023 年收入目標的一部分似乎取決於環境的某些改善。比如穩定股市，IB反彈？簡，你還注意到中期目標旨在在不同的環境中實現。因此，如果收入背景繼續像我們在 2022 年看到的那樣受到挑戰，您能否談談您可能能夠拉動的一些可能提供抵消的槓桿？

Well, it kind of depends on what the drivers are of a different environment, right? Because you could have -- I don't anticipate this, but you could have continued pressure in investment banking, but you could also have continued volatility in rates or currencies and that could mean more upside than flat for the markets business. So there are a lot of puts and takes that one can scenario. I think what's really important is that we have a diversified portfolio of businesses that have strategic connectivity to them.

好吧，這有點取決於不同環境的驅動程序，對吧？因為你可能 - 我不預料到這一點，但你可能會在投資銀行業務中繼續承受壓力，但你也可能會遇到利率或貨幣的持續波動，這可能意味著市場業務的上行空間大於持平。因此，有很多 put 和 take 場景。我認為真正重要的是我們擁有多元化的業務組合，這些業務與它們具有戰略聯繫。

And so what that allows for is that as the environment shifts in some way that we may not have predicted that we were often able to still drive significant performance as we did this year (inaudible) that's what gives us the confidence to around the guidance and really to remain steadfast on the strategy that we've talked about and really push execution, and that's exactly what we're doing.

因此，允許的是，隨著環境以某種方式發生變化，我們可能沒有預料到我們通常仍然能夠像今年那樣推動顯著的績效（聽不清），這讓我們有信心圍繞指導和真正堅持我們已經討論過的戰略並真正推動執行，而這正是我們正在做的事情。

And an important part of '23, it's not just the impact of the cycle, but also you'll see the impact of the different investments that we've been making. And you've certainly seen that, for example, in services this year, and we've been very transparent around the 70 basis point increase. We've seen in wallet share in the 12 months leading up to the third quarter. So you've not only got drivers here in terms of what's happening in the market, but you've also got the strategic drivers, also kicking in more and more together, as Mark referred to the synergies.

23 年的一個重要部分，不僅是周期的影響，而且您還會看到我們一直在進行的不同投資的影響。你肯定已經看到了這一點，例如，今年的服務業，我們在 70 個基點的增長方面非常透明。我們在第三季度之前的 12 個月裡看到了錢包份額。因此，就市場正在發生的事情而言，您不僅在這裡擁有驅動力，而且還擁有戰略驅動力，並且越來越多地共同發揮作用，正如馬克所說的協同效應。

A great point, Jane, because it may not always show up in the top line, which is why we put those KPIs out there. There are often indicators of some of the upside that's on the come as the market evolves.

一個很好的觀點，簡，因為它可能並不總是出現在頂行，這就是我們將這些 KPI 放在那裡的原因。隨著市場的發展，通常會出現一些上行跡象。

Our last question will come from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

我們的最後一個問題將來自富國銀行證券公司的 Mike Mayo。

Yes. So one question, one follow-up. So you have a -- your slide says you have a CET1 target of 13% by midyear, but you're already there. And I guess, if we go back to the Banamex thing, I guess, is that kind of assuming potential capital impact from divestitures or why would you have a target 6 months out when you've already met it?

是的。所以一個問題，一個跟進。所以你有一個——你的幻燈片說你有一個到年中 13% 的 CET1 目標，但你已經達到了。而且我想，如果我們回到 Banamex 的事情，我想，這是假設資產剝離帶來的潛在資本影響，或者為什麼你已經達到了 6 個月的目標？

Yes, Mike, I have to tell you that I'm surprised that you're asking about Mexico, just given our history together, but I understand it. And what I would say is that a couple of things. One, we clearly see where we trade, right? And we're not happy about where we trade. And we think our strategy warrants us trading better than where we trade today. So if we could buy back, right, we could do buybacks as soon as we're able to do buybacks, we will, right? I mean that is part of the way we deliver value for our shareholders.

是的，邁克，我必須告訴你，我很驚訝你問的是墨西哥，只是考慮到我們在一起的歷史，但我理解。我要說的是幾件事。第一，我們清楚地看到我們在哪裡交易，對吧？我們對我們的交易地點不滿意。我們認為我們的策略保證我們的交易比今天的交易更好。因此，如果我們可以回購，對，我們可以在能夠回購後立即進行回購，我們會的，對嗎？我的意思是，這是我們為股東創造價值的方式之一。

The second thing I'd say is we did get to the 13% sooner. And that was, again, in accordance with executing against our strategy. And our parts of our business, particularly the markets business, has done a really good job at delivering against the metric we put out of revenue to RWA, and we've been able to get there without damaging the franchise, which is what you see in the continued strength and performance in that business, particularly in fixed income.

我要說的第二件事是我們確實更快地達到了 13%。這再次符合我們戰略的執行。我們的業務部分，尤其是市場業務，在根據我們為 RWA 制定的收入指標方面做得非常好，而且我們已經能夠在不損害特許經營權的情況下實現這一目標，這就是你所看到的該業務的持續實力和業績，特別是在固定收益方面。

What's ahead of us, as you rightfully pointed out, is that we've got a number of exits that have to take place, there's puts and takes across many of them. But Mexico, in particular, will have a temporary impact on our CET1 ratio. And so we want to be mindful of that as we manage over the next 2 quarters so that we can absorb that. And we also want to make sure that we're positioned to continue to serve our clients over the next couple of quarters and always, but certainly over the next couple of quarters, while we manage the headwind, temporary headwind from that exit.

正如您正確指出的那樣，擺在我們面前的是，我們有許多必須進行的退出，其中有許多退出。但尤其是墨西哥，將對我們的 CET1 比率產生暫時的影響。因此，我們希望在接下來的兩個季度進行管理時注意這一點，以便我們能夠吸收這一點。而且我們還希望確保我們能夠在接下來的幾個季度內繼續為我們的客戶提供服務，而且肯定會在接下來的幾個季度內繼續為我們的客戶提供服務，同時我們管理逆風，暫時的逆風。

So hopefully, that gives you a better sense for it, but we're actively managing this, and we have not lost focus on the importance of returning capital to shareholders.

所以希望這能讓你更好地理解它，但我們正在積極管理它，我們並沒有失去對向股東返還資本的重要性的關注。

Yes. I want to reiterate that as well. I mean it's very important to us. And as Mark said, we know where we trade. We've made a number of moves to align ourselves to our shareholders' interest in compensation and management interest, all these various dimensions. And we just want to make sure that we hit what we say we're going to do and continue delivering against what we say we're going to be delivering. And with the CPA impact essentially in Mexico, we want to make sure that we're taking that into account.

是的。我也想重申這一點。我的意思是這對我們來說非常重要。正如馬克所說，我們知道我們在哪裡交易。我們已經採取了一系列措施來使我們的股東在薪酬和管理利益方面的利益保持一致，所有這些方面。我們只是想確保我們實現了我們所說的我們將要做的事情，並繼續按照我們所說的我們將要實現的目標交付。由於 CPA 的影響主要在墨西哥，我們希望確保我們將這一點考慮在內。

All right. That's very clear. And then lastly, your NII guide, excluding markets related is higher for 2023, but I think that implies a little step down from the fourth quarter level, not as much as JPMorgan was guiding down 10% from the fourth quarter level. I was thinking there might be some delayed benefits from being outside the U.S. What are some of the ins and outs there?

好的。這很清楚。最後，你的 NII 指南（不包括與市場相關的內容）在 2023 年更高，但我認為這意味著比第四季度水平略有下降，而不是摩根大通指導從第四季度水平下降 10% 的幅度。我在想，在美國境外可能會有一些延遲的好處。那裡有哪些來龍去脈？

Yes. You've got a couple of points here. So one is we won't see NII momentum as we've seen in 2022, just as betas start to increase on the ICG side and get to terminal levels, that's obviously going to slow or put pressure on the pricing as we go into '23. But some of the other important drivers of the growth will be the annualization of the rate hikes that happened late in the year, and so that will be a plus in 2023. And you'll also see, as I mentioned earlier, some of the rate increases that we anticipate outside of the U.S. and given our mix, that will benefit us in 2023. And then there'll be a volume that will contribute to that NII growth, particularly as we continue to see good momentum, which we anticipate on the card side. The offset will be the legacy franchise, right? And so as those exits occur as the wind downs continue, as I mentioned earlier, that revenue mix does skew towards NII. And so we'll have to grow over that and we will grow over that to kind of get to the target that we've set. So those are the puts and takes.

是的。你在這裡有幾點。所以一個是我們不會看到 NII 的勢頭，就像我們在 2022 年看到的那樣，就像 ICG 方面的 beta 開始增加並達到終端水平一樣，隨著我們進入 ' 23.但增長的其他一些重要驅動力將是今年年底加息的年度化，因此這將是 2023 年的一個優勢。正如我之前提到的，你還會看到一些我們預計美國以外地區的利率會上漲，並且考慮到我們的組合，這將使我們在 2023 年受益。然後會有一定的數量有助於 NII 的增長，特別是當我們繼續看到良好的勢頭時，我們預計卡的一面。補償將是遺留特許經營權，對嗎？因此，正如我之前提到的那樣，隨著風潮的繼續，這些退出發生，收入組合確實偏向 NII。因此，我們必須克服這一點，我們將克服這一點，以達到我們設定的目標。所以這些就是投入和投入。

There are no further questions. I will now turn the call over to Jen Landis for closing remarks.

沒有其他問題了。我現在將把電話轉給 Jen Landis 作結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to IR. Have a great day. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 IR。祝你有美好的一天。謝謝你。

This does conclude the Citi Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Review Call. You may now disconnect.

這確實結束了花旗 2022 年第四季度收益審查電話會議。您現在可以斷開連接。