花旗銀行 (C) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Citi's Fourth Quarter 2019 Earnings Review.

您好，歡迎閱讀花旗 2019 年第四季獲利回顧。

Today, we are joined by Citi's Chief Executive Officer; Mike Corbat; the Chief Financial Officer, and Mark Mason, CFO.

今天，花旗執行長也加入了我們的行列；麥克·科爾巴特；財務長和財務長馬克梅森。

Today's call will be hosted by Elizabeth Lynn, Head of Investor -- Citi Investor Relations.

今天的電話會議將由花旗投資者關係投資者主管 Elizabeth Lynn 主持。

(Operator Instructions) Also as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today.

（操作員說明）另外提醒一下，今天正在錄製本次會議。

If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，請此時斷開連接。

Ms. Lynn, you may begin.

林恩女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線生。

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us.

早安，感謝大家加入我們。

On our call today, our CEO, Mike Corbat, will speak first; then Mark Mason, our CFO, will take you through the earnings presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com.

在今天的電話會議上，我們的執行長 Mike Corbat 將首先發言；然後，我們的財務長 Mark Mason 將向您介紹收益演示文稿，可在我們的網站 citigroup.com 上下載。

Afterward, we will be happy to take questions.

之後，我們將很樂意回答問題。

Before we get started, I'd like to remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的簡報可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並可能受到不確定性和情況變化的影響。

Actual results, capital and other financial conditions may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including the precautionary statements referenced in our discussion today and those included in our SEC filings, including, without limitation, the risk factors section of our 2018 Form 10-K.

由於多種因素，實際結果、資本和其他財務狀況可能與這些聲明有重大差異，包括我們今天討論中引用的預防性聲明以及我們向SEC 提交的文件中包含的預防性聲明，包括但不限於我們2018 年的風險因子部分錶格 ​​10-K。

With that said, let me turn it over to Mike.

話雖如此，讓我把它交給麥克。

Thank you, Liz.

謝謝你，莉茲。

This morning, we announced that we had a strong close to 2019.

今天早上，我們宣布 2019 年已圓滿結束。

We reported earnings of $5 billion for the fourth quarter, bringing our net income to $19.4 billion for the year, the highest since 2006.

我們第四季的獲利為 50 億美元，全年淨利潤達到 194 億美元，為 2006 年以來的最高水準。

Our earnings per share of $2.15 were over 30% higher than a year ago.

我們的每股收益為 2.15 美元，比一年前增長了 30% 以上。

And the $8.04 for the full year was over 20% above 2018.

全年 8.04 美元比 2018 年上漲了 20% 以上。

We finished the year with a return on tangible common equity of 12.1%, just ahead of our 12% target for the year, and this is 120 basis points higher than our 2018 return on tangible common equity of 10.9%.

今年我們的有形普通股回報率為 12.1%，略高於我們今年 12% 的目標，這比 2018 年有形普通股回報率 10.9% 高出 120 個基點。

In constant dollars, our 2019 underlying revenues increased by 4% in both global consumer banking and our institutional clients group.

以不變美元計算，我們 2019 年全球消費銀行業務和機構客戶群的基礎收入均成長了 4%。

Good revenue growth, paired with disciplined expense management, allowed us to deliver positive operating leverage even as we continue to make significant investments in the franchise.

良好的收入成長，加上嚴格的費用管理，使我們能夠在繼續對特許經營權進行大量投資的同時，實現積極的營運槓桿作用。

Pretax earnings were up 5%.

稅前獲利成長 5%。

We also had loan and deposit growth for the year and for the 16th consecutive quarter.

我們的貸款和存款今年也連續第 16 季成長。

Our return on assets rose to 98 basis points for the year.

今年我們的資產報酬率上升至 98 個基點。

Our strong finish to 2019 was a result of balanced performance of both -- across both products and geographies.

我們在 2019 年取得了強勁的業績，這是雙方在產品和地區方面表現均衡的結果。

Both North America and International Consumer Banking had 4% year-over-year revenue growth.

北美和國際消費銀行業務收入較去年同期成長 4%。

In the U.S., branded cards revenues continued to grow at a healthy clip, with a 10% increase for the quarter, bringing the full year increase to 8%.

在美國，品牌卡收入持續健康成長，本季成長 10%，全年增幅達 8%。

We continued to attract digital deposits from both existing and new customers, bringing the total to $6 billion for the year.

我們持續吸引現有客戶和新客戶的數位存款，使全年存款總額達到 60 億美元。

Better sentiment helped increase our wealth management revenues in Asia, and our cards business contributed to growth in Mexico.

更好的情緒有助於增加我們在亞洲的財富管理收入，我們的信用卡業務也促進了墨西哥的成長。

Investor sentiment also positively impacted our institutional business for the fourth quarter.

投資者情緒也對我們第四季的機構業務產生了正面影響。

Fixed Income was up nearly 50% from a tough final quarter of 2018.

固定收益較 2018 年最後一季的艱難時期增長了近 50%。

Equities didn't perform as well, mainly due to weakness in derivatives.

股票表現不佳，主要是因為衍生性商品疲軟。

We continued to gain share in Investment Banking, and the Private Bank posted good revenue growth of 6%.

投資銀行業務份額持續提升，私人銀行收入成長6%，表現良好。

Treasury and Trade Solutions continued to grow despite a lower rate environment as we work to ensure our global network remains indispensable to our multinational clients.

儘管利率環境較低，但資金和貿易解決方案仍在繼續成長，因為我們努力確保我們的全球網路對跨國客戶仍然不可或缺。

We ended the year in a strong capital position, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 11.7%, and we're on track to deliver our Investor Day commitment of returning more than $60 billion of capital to our shareholders over 3 CCAR cycles, having returned over $22 billion in 2019 alone.

今年年底，我們的資本狀況強勁，普通股一級資本比率為 11.7%，我們預計兌現投資者日承諾，在 3 個 CCAR 週期內向股東返還超過 600 億美元的資本，僅2019 年，回報就超過220億美元。

Our dividend creates a very respectable yield for our common shareholders, and we reduced our shares outstanding by 11% during the year.

我們的股利為我們的普通股股東創造了非常可觀的收益，我們在這一年中將流通股減少了 11%。

Our tangible book value per share increased to over $70, a 10% increase for the year.

我們每股有形帳面價值增加至 70 美元以上，全年成長 10%。

I'm very proud of our firm's performance.

我對我們公司的業績感到非常自豪。

As we did in 2018, we hit our return target for the year despite an uncertain environment, which saw trade disputes, rising geopolitical tensions and still no finality regarding Brexit.

正如我們在 2018 年所做的那樣，儘管環境不確定，貿易爭端、地緣政治緊張局勢加劇以及英國脫歐仍未最終定論，但我們還是實現了今年的回報目標。

As we told you entering the year, we prepared for multiple scenarios and use multiple levers to manage the firm through the uncertainty and deliver a solid year for our shareholders.

正如我們告訴您的那樣，進入今年，我們為多種情況做好了準備，並使用多種槓桿來管理公司度過不確定性，並為我們的股東帶來堅實的一年。

We enter 2020 in a strong competitive position from capital and liquidity to talent and technology.

進入 2020 年，我們從資本和流動性到人才和技術都處於強大的競爭地位。

We continue to invest in areas where we see opportunities for client-led growth and in our infrastructure, in light of the enduring need to be an indisputably strong and stable institution.

鑑於成為無可爭議的強大和穩定機構的持久需求，我們繼續投資於我們認為以客戶為主導的成長機會的領域和我們的基礎設施。

We're looking forward to sharing with you how we'll take our firm forward over the next several years.

我們期待與您分享我們將如何在未來幾年推動我們的公司向前發展。

With that in mind, we will hold our next Investor Day on May 13.

考慮到這一點，我們將於 5 月 13 日舉辦下一個投資者日。

The environment has changed meaningfully since our 2017 Investor Day, and we'll lay out what we aspire to, this year and beyond.

自 2017 年投資者日以來，環境發生了有意義的變化，我們將闡述今年及以後的目標。

Now let me turn it over to Mark, and then we'd be happy to answer your questions.

現在讓我將其轉交給馬克，然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Mark?

標記？

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，麥克，大家早安。

Starting on Slide 3, net income of $5 billion in the fourth quarter grew 18% from last year as growth in operating margin was partially offset by higher credit costs, and we benefited from a significantly lower tax rate.

從投影片 3 開始，第四季的淨利潤為 50 億美元，較去年增長 18%，因為營業利潤的成長部分被信貸成本上升所抵消，而且我們受益於大幅降低的稅率。

EPS grew 34%, including the impact of a 10% reduction in average diluted shares outstanding as we've continued to buy back shares throughout the year, consistent with our capital plan.

每股盈餘成長了 34%，其中包括平均攤薄後流通股減少 10% 的影響，因為我們根據我們的資本計畫繼續全年回購股票。

Revenues of $18.4 billion grew 7% from the prior year, driven by higher noninterest revenue and reflecting continued solid results across consumer as well as our accrual businesses in ICG, along with a rebound in markets.

受非利息收入增加的推動，營收為 184 億美元，較上年增長 7%，反映出消費者以及 ICG 的應計業務持續取得穩健業績，以及市場反彈。

Expenses increased 6% year-over-year, reflecting higher compensation and volume-related expenses, along with continued investments in the franchise, partially offset by efficiency savings and the wind down of legacy assets.

費用年增 6%，反映出薪酬和銷售相關費用的增加，以及對特許經營權的持續投資，但部分被效率節省和遺留資產的縮減所抵消。

And cost of credit increased, driven by volume growth and seasoning in consumer as well as volume growth and a few episodic downgrades in ICG, while overall credit quality remained stable.

受消費者數量增長和季節變化以及 ICG 數量增長和幾次評級下調的推動，信貸成本有所增加，而整體信貸品質保持穩定。

Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 12%, better than our outlook, reflecting discrete tax items.

我們本季的有效稅率為 12%，優於我們的預期，反映了離散稅項。

The discrete tax items equate to a benefit of $0.25 per share this quarter.

離散稅項相當於本季每股收益 0.25 美元。

Excluding this benefit, our tax rate would have been roughly 22%.

排除這項福利，我們的稅率約為 22%。

In constant dollars, end-of-period loans grew 2% year-over-year to $699 billion, as 3% growth in our core businesses was partially offset by the wind down of legacy assets.

以不變美元計算，期末貸款年增 2%，達到 6,990 億美元，因為我們核心業務 3% 的成長被遺留資產的縮減部分抵銷。

And deposits grew 6%, with contributions from both our consumer and institutional franchises.

存款增加了 6%，這得益於我們的消費者和機構特許經營機構的貢獻。

On Slide 4, we show our full year results.

在幻燈片 4 上，我們展示了全年業績。

Looking at 2019, our progress was broad-based, with revenue growth, positive operating leverage and operating margin expansion across both our consumer and institutional businesses.

展望 2019 年，我們的進步是廣泛的，消費者和機構業務的收入成長、積極的營運槓桿和營運利潤率擴大。

Revenues were up 4% on an underlying basis, excluding the impact of FX, as well as the $150 million gain on the sale of the Hilton portfolio and the $250 million gain on the asset management business in Mexico in 2018.

排除外匯的影響，以及 2018 年出售希爾頓投資組合帶來的 1.5 億美元收益和墨西哥資產管理業務帶來的 2.5 億美元收益，收入基本增長 4%。

In Global Consumer Banking, we generated 4% revenue growth across all 3 regions.

在全球消費者銀行業務中，我們在所有 3 個地區實現了 4% 的收入成長。

In ICG, revenues also grew 4%, with continued momentum in our accrual businesses, as well as growth in our market-sensitive businesses.

在 ICG，隨著應計業務的持續成長以及市場敏感業務的成長，收入也成長了 4%。

And even as we've continued to make critical investments in our franchise, we maintained expense discipline, delivering roughly flat expenses for the year in line with our outlook.

即使我們繼續對我們的特許經營權進行關鍵投資，我們也保持了支出紀律，今年的支出與我們的前景大致持平。

Credit quality remained broadly stable across the franchise, and underlying pretax earnings grew by 5%.

整個特許經營範圍內的信貸品質基本上保持穩定，基本稅前收益增加了 5%。

EPS grew by 21%, and we generated an RoTCE of 12.1%, ahead of our target for the full year.

EPS 成長了 21%，RoTCE 為 12.1%，超越了我們的全年目標。

Turning now to the businesses.

現在轉向企業。

Slide 5 shows the results for Global Consumer Banking in constant dollars.

投影片 5 顯示了以不變美元計算的全球消費者銀行業務的結果。

The consumer business showed continued momentum in the fourth quarter.

消費業務第四季持續呈現成長動能。

For the quarter, revenues grew 4%, with contributions from all regions, while expenses were down 1%, driving continued growth in operating margin and earnings.

本季度，在所有地區的貢獻下，營收成長了 4%，而費用下降了 1%，推動了營業利潤率和收益的持續成長。

And looking at full year results in consumer, excluding both gains in 2018, we also generated 4% revenue growth, while expenses were roughly flat, resulting in 9% growth in operating margin and 13% growth in pretax earnings.

看看消費者的全年業績，排除 2018 年的兩項收益，我們的收入也增長了 4%，而支出大致持平，導致營業利潤率增長 9%，稅前收益增長 13%。

Slide 6 shows the results for North America Consumer Banking in more detail.

幻燈片 6 更詳細地顯示了北美消費者銀行業務的結果。

Fourth quarter revenues of $5.3 billion were up 4% from last year.

第四季營收為 53 億美元，比去年成長 4%。

We have continued to make meaningful progress against our strategy to create a more integrated client-centric relationship model, launching new value propositions across cards and retail banking and continuing to enhance our digital capabilities.

我們繼續在創建更加一體化的以客戶為中心的關係模型的策略方面取得有意義的進展，在銀行卡和零售銀行領域推出新的價值主張，並繼續增強我們的數位化能力。

In 2019, we introduced the Rewards+ card; digital lending products, Flex Loan and Flex Pay; new digital checking and savings accounts; and relationship offers for both cards and deposits.

2019年，我們推出了Rewards+卡；數位借貸產品、Flex Loan 和 Flex Pay；新的數位支票和儲蓄帳戶；以及卡片和存款的關係優惠。

And in digital, we enhanced our account opening and servicing capabilities, for example, streamlining the digital account opening process, which has roughly doubled our application submission rate.

在數位化方面，我們增強了開戶和服務能力，例如，簡化了數位化開戶流程，這使我們的申請提交率提高了一倍。

These actions are resonating with our clients, driving deeper relationships and better growth in deposits, AUMs and loans.

這些行動引起了我們客戶的共鳴，推動了更深層的關係以及存款、資產管理規模和貸款的更好成長。

And while most of the new offerings we've introduced in 2019 have leveraged our proprietary products and reward programs, this year, we will be expanding our reach and the breadth of our customer base with both existing and new partners.

雖然我們在 2019 年推出的大多數新產品都利用了我們的專有產品和獎勵計劃，但今年，我們將與現有和新的合作夥伴一起擴大我們的覆蓋範圍和客戶群的廣度。

For example, we're expanding our partnership with American Airlines to include deposit products, and we recently announced a new partnership with Google to attract clients digitally.

例如，我們正在擴大與美國航空的合作夥伴關係，將存款產品納入其中，並且我們最近宣布與 Google 建立新的合作夥伴關係，以透過數位方式吸引客戶。

Importantly, we are building these capabilities in a scalable manner, with the ability to expand to other partners efficiently.

重要的是，我們正在以可擴展的方式建立這些功能，並能夠有效地擴展到其他合作夥伴。

Turning now to the results of the individual businesses.

現在轉向個體企業的結果。

Branded cards revenues of $2.4 billion grew 10% year-over-year.

品牌卡營收為 24 億美元，年增 10%。

Client engagement remains strong with purchase sales up 7% and average loan growth improved to 4%, while our net interest revenue as a percentage of loans expanded to 921 basis points this quarter.

客戶參與度依然強勁，採購銷售額成長 7%，平均貸款成長提高至 4%，而本季我們的淨利息收入佔貸款的百分比擴大至 921 個基點。

In Retail Banking, our deposit momentum continued to improve, with average deposits up 7%, with a strong contribution from both traditional and digital channels.

在零售銀行業務方面，我們的存款動能持續改善，平均存款成長7%，傳統通路和數位通路都有強勁貢獻。

And our AUMs were up 20% or 8%, excluding market movements, reflecting strong engagement from our Citigold clients.

排除市場波動，我們的資產管理規模增加了 20% 或 8%，這反映出我們的 Citigold 客戶的強烈參與。

We saw continued momentum in digital deposit sales, bringing our full year total to roughly $6 billion versus the $1 billion we raised in 2018.

我們看到數位存款銷售的持續勢頭，使我們的全年總額達到約 60 億美元，而 2018 年籌集的資金為 10 億美元。

And our experience to date gives us confidence in our ability to drive towards national scale in retail as we deepen relationships over time.

迄今為止的經驗使我們對隨著時間的推移加深關係而推動全國零售規模的能力充滿信心。

However, retail banking revenues of $1.1 billion were down 4% year-over-year as the benefit of stronger deposit volumes was more than offset by lower deposit spreads.

然而，零售銀行業務收入為 11 億美元，年減 4%，因為存款量增加的好處被存款利差下降所抵銷。

Finally, retail services revenues of $1.7 billion were up 1% year-over-year, with continued growth in loans and purchase sales across the majority of the portfolio.

最後，零售服務收入為 17 億美元，年增 1%，大部分投資組合的貸款和採購銷售持續成長。

Total expenses for North America Consumer were down 4% year-over-year, as efficiency savings more than offset investment spending and higher volume related expenses.

北美消費者的總支出年減 4%，因為效率節省足以抵銷投資支出和較高的數量相關支出。

Turning to credit.

轉向信用。

Net credit losses grew by 10% year-over-year, reflecting loan growth and seasoning in both cards' portfolios.

淨信貸損失年增 10%，反映了兩張卡投資組合的貸款成長和老化。

Our full year NCL rate in U.S. branded cards and retail services were 319 basis points and 513 basis points, respectively.

美國品牌卡和零售服務的全年 NCL 率分別為 319 個基點和 513 個基點。

Looking ahead, we expect NCL rates in 2020 to be at or slightly above the high end of our outlook range of 300 to 325 basis points for branded cards and 500 to 525 basis points for retail services.

展望未來，我們預計 2020 年 NCL 利率將達到或略高於我們預期範圍的上限，即品牌卡 300 至 325 個基點，零售服務 500 至 525 個基點。

And I'd also note that we typically see higher NCL rates in the first half relative to the second half of the year, reflecting normal seasonality.

我還要指出的是，我們通常會看到上半年的 NCL 率高於下半年，這反映了正常的季節性。

On Slide 7, we show results for International Consumer Banking in constant dollars.

在投影片 7 上，我們顯示了以不變美元計算的國際消費者銀行業務的結果。

Fourth quarter revenues of $3.2 billion grew 4%.

第四季營收為 32 億美元，成長 4%。

In Latin America, consumer revenues grew 6%, including a few small episodic gains.

在拉丁美洲，消費者收入成長了 6%，其中包括一些小幅的間歇性成長。

Loan and deposit growth was muted in Mexico again this quarter, as we are seeing lower levels of client demand in the current environment of decelerating GDP growth and a slowdown in overall industry volumes.

本季墨西哥的貸款和存款成長再次放緩，因為我們看到在當前 GDP 成長放緩和整體行業規模放緩的環境下客戶需求水平較低。

But importantly, we delivered strong year-over-year EBIT growth again this quarter.

但重要的是，本季我們再次實現了強勁的息稅前利潤年增。

Turning to Asia.

轉向亞洲。

Consumer revenues grew 4% in the fourth quarter.

第四季消費者收入成長 4%。

We continue to see strong growth in our wealth management drivers in Asia, with 10% growth in Citigold clients and 9% growth in net new money versus last year.

我們繼續看到亞洲財富管理驅動力的強勁成長，與去年相比，Citigold 客戶成長了 10%，淨新資金成長了 9%。

In total, operating expenses for International Consumer Banking increased 3% in the fourth quarter, as investment spending and volume-driven growth was partially offset by efficiency savings.

整體而言，國際消費銀行業務第四季的營運支出成長了 3%，投資支出和業務量驅動的成長被效率節省部分抵銷。

And cost of credit was down 6%, driven primarily by Mexico.

信貸成本下降了 6%，這主要是由墨西哥推動的。

Slide 8 shows Global Consumer credit trends in more detail.

幻燈片 8 更詳細地顯示了全球消費信貸趨勢。

As a reminder, this quarter, we realigned our commercial banking business, with all commercial banking activities, including those previously reported as part of GCB, now reported in ICG.

提醒一下，本季度，我們重新調整了商業銀行業務，包括所有商業銀行活動，包括先前作為 GCB 一部分報告的活動，現在在 ICG 中報告。

The consumer credit trends on Slide 8 reflect this change.

第 8 張投影片上的消費者信貸趨勢反映了這一變化。

In North America and Asia, this shift resulted in only a slight increase in the reported NCL rates.

在北美和亞洲，這一轉變僅導致報告的 NCL 率略有上升。

However, it did have a larger impact on reported NCL rates in Latin America, given the relative size of the commercial business there, which had structurally lower NCL rates and represented roughly 1/3 of the GCB loan book.

然而，考慮到拉丁美洲商業企業的相對規模，它確實對拉丁美洲報告的 NCL 利率產生了更大的影響，這些商業企業的 NCL 利率在結構上較低，約佔 GCB 貸款帳簿的 1/3。

Overall, credit trends remained favorable again this quarter.

整體而言，本季信貸趨勢再次保持有利。

Turning now to the Institutional Clients Group on Slide 9. Revenues of $9.4 billion were up 10% in the fourth quarter, reflecting continued momentum in the accrual businesses as well as strong performance in both Investment Banking and Fixed Income markets, partially offset by softness in equity markets.

現在轉向幻燈片9 上的機構客戶集團。所抵銷。

Total banking revenues of $5.5 billion were up 3%.

銀行業總收入達 55 億美元，成長 3%。

Treasury and Trade Solutions revenues of $2.6 billion were up 2% as reported and 3% in constant dollars as we drove strong client engagement and solid growth in deposits and transaction volumes, partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates.

由於我們推動了強勁的客戶參與以及存款和交易量的穩健增長，財資和貿易解決方案收入按報告增長了2%，按固定美元計算增長了3%，達到26 億美元，但部分被較低利率的影響所抵銷。

We continue to see robust underlying business drivers in TTS, reflecting growth with new clients as well as the deepening of relationships with our existing clients, including 10% growth in average deposits, as well as double-digit growth in our cross-border payment flows this quarter.

我們繼續看到 TTS 強勁的潛在業務驅動力，反映出新客戶的成長以及與現有客戶關係的深化，包括平均存款成長 10%，以及跨境支付流量兩位數成長本季。

Investment Banking revenues of $1.4 billion were up 6% from last year, outperforming the market wallet, reflecting strong performance in equity and debt underwriting, particularly investment-grade underwriting, as we leverage our global capabilities to help clients optimize their funding needs.

投資銀行業務收入為14 億美元，較去年增長6%，表現優於市場表現，反映出我們在股票和債務承銷（尤其是投資級承銷）方面的強勁表現，因為我們利用我們的全球能力幫助客戶優化其融資需求。

Private Bank revenues of $847 million were up 6%, driven by higher lending and increased investment activity, with both new and existing clients, partially offset by spread compression.

受新舊客戶貸款增加和投資活動增加的推動，私人銀行收入達到 8.47 億美元，成長 6%，部分被利差壓縮所抵銷。

And corporate lending revenues of $732 million were roughly flat as growth in the commercial book was offset by lower volumes in the rest of the portfolio.

7.32 億美元的企業貸款收入大致持平，因為商業帳簿的成長被投資組合其他業務量的下降所抵消。

Total Markets and Securities Services revenues of $3.9 billion were up 28% from last year.

市場和證券服務總收入為 39 億美元，比去年增長 28%。

Fixed Income revenues were up 49%, largely reflecting a recovery from the fourth quarter 2018, coupled with strong performance, particularly in rates and spread products.

固定收益收入成長 49%，主要反映了自 2018 年第四季以來的復甦，以及強勁的表現，尤其是在利率和利差產品方面。

Equities revenues were down 23%, primarily reflecting a more challenging environment and equity derivatives.

股票收入下降 23%，主要反映了更具挑戰性的環境和股票衍生品。

And finally, in Securities Services, revenues were down 1% on a reported basis but largely unchanged in constant dollars as higher volumes from new and existing clients were offset by lower spreads.

最後，在證券服務領域，據報告收入下降了 1%，但以固定匯率計算基本上沒有變化，因為新客戶和現有客戶的交易量增加被利差下降所抵消。

Total operating expenses of $5.4 billion increased 8% year-over-year, driven by higher compensation-related expenses and legal costs.

由於薪酬相關費用和法律費用增加，總營運費用為 54 億美元，年增 8%。

And credit costs increased to $246 million, reflecting overall volume growth as well as a few episodic downgrades, while overall portfolio quality remains strong.

信貸成本增加至 2.46 億美元，反映了整體數量的成長以及一些間歇性的降級，而整體投資組合品質仍然強勁。

And on a full year basis, credit cost of $563 million were consistent with what we would expect annually given the size as well as the quality of our portfolio.

考慮到我們投資組合的規模和質量，全年信貸成本為 5.63 億美元，與我們每年的預期一致。

For full year 2019, our net income grew 3% on the combination of revenue growth, positive operating leverage, continued credit discipline and a lower tax rate.

2019 年全年，由於收入成長、積極的營運槓桿、持續的信貸紀律和較低的稅率，我們的淨利潤增加了 3%。

On a constant dollar basis, full year revenue growth was 4%.

以固定美元匯率計算，全年營收成長率為 4%。

From a client perspective, our revenue growth was largely driven by continued strong engagement with our corporate clients across TTS and Investment Banking as well as both Fixed Income and equity markets.

從客戶的角度來看，我們的營收成長主要得益於與 TTS 和投資銀行以及固定收益和股票市場的企業客戶的持續密切合作。

And looking at our results from a product perspective, we generated over half our revenues in banking, which grew 3% as reported and 5% in constant dollars on continued momentum in TTS, Investment Banking and the Private Bank.

從產品的角度來看我們的業績，我們一半以上的收入來自銀行業，由於 TTS、投資銀行和私人銀行的持續增長勢頭，按報告增長了 3%，按固定匯率計算增長了 5%。

Securities Services revenues were largely unchanged on a reported basis but grew 4% in constant dollars as we continue to acquire new clients as well as deepen existing client relationships.

證券服務收入在報告基礎上基本上沒有變化，但隨著我們繼續獲取新客戶以及深化現有客戶關係，以固定匯率計算增長了 4%。

And in Fixed Income, revenues grew 10%, with strong contribution from both rates and currencies as well as spread products.

在固定收益領域，營收成長了 10%，其中利率、貨幣以及利差產品均做出了強勁貢獻。

The combined solid performance in these businesses helped to more than offset weakness in equities and deliver positive operating leverage for the year.

這些業務的全面穩健表現不僅抵消了股市的疲軟，也為今年帶來了積極的營運槓桿。

And finally, while our cost of credit was higher, it was in line with our outlook for 2019, reflecting a normalization in credit trends, and credit quality remains strong with roughly 10 basis points of losses for the year.

最後，雖然我們的信貸成本較高，但這與我們對 2019 年的展望相符，反映出信貸趨勢正常化，信貸品質仍然強勁，全年損失約 10 個基點。

Slide 10 shows the results for Corporate/Other.

幻燈片 10 顯示了公司/其他的結果。

Revenues of $542 million increased 8% from last year, reflecting gains on investments, partially offset by the wind down of legacy assets.

收入為 5.42 億美元，比去年增長 8%，反映了投資收益，但部分被遺留資產的縮減所抵消。

Expenses increased 34%, reflecting higher infrastructure cost, partially offset by the wind down of legacy assets.

費用增加了 34%，反映出基礎設施成本上升，但部分被遺留資產的縮減所抵銷。

And the pretax loss was $80 million this quarter, roughly in line with our prior outlook.

本季稅前虧損為 8,000 萬美元，與我們先前的預期大致一致。

Looking ahead for 2020, we would expect a quarterly pretax loss of roughly $250 million in Corporate/Other as we continue to invest in infrastructure and controls and see some impact from lower rates as well as a reduced level of gains.

展望 2020 年，我們預計企業/其他季度稅前虧損約為 2.5 億美元，因為我們繼續投資於基礎設施和控制措施，並看到較低利率和收益水準下降的一些影響。

Slide 11 shows our net interest revenue, split between our markets business and the contribution from the rest of the franchise, excluding markets on the top of the slide.

幻燈片 11 顯示了我們的淨利息收入，分為我們的市場業務和其他特許經營業務的貢獻，不包括幻燈片頂部的市場。

As you can see, we delivered 3% growth in net interest revenue or roughly $1.4 billion year-over-year in constant dollars in 2019, in line with the high end of our latest outlook, mainly reflecting strength in North America branded cards and TTS.

如您所見，2019 年我們的淨利息收入成長了 3%，以固定匯率計算年增約 14 億美元，與我們最新展望的上限一致，主要反映了北美品牌卡和 TTS 的實力。

Looking at results for the quarter, we saw a rebound in markets, net interest revenues, both year-over-year and sequentially, while growth in the rest of the franchise was more than offset by the headwinds of lower rates.

從本季的業績來看，我們看到市場、淨利息收入年比和季比均反彈，而其他業務的成長則被利率下降的不利因素所抵銷。

And net interest margin increased by 7 basis points sequentially, also driven by the higher markets' net interest revenue.

淨利差較上季成長 7 個基點，這也是受到較高市場淨利息收入的推動。

And turning to noninterest revenue for total Citigroup, this quarter, we generated strong year-over-year growth in noninterest revenue of roughly $1.2 billion.

至於花旗集團的非利息收入總額，本季我們的非利息收入較去年同期強勁成長，約 12 億美元。

The strong end to the year allowed us to deliver nearly $650 million of growth in noninterest revenue on a full year basis, or 2% above our original forecast, or roughly flat.

年底的強勁表現使我們全年非利息收入成長了近 6.5 億美元，比我們最初的預測高出 2%，或基本持平。

So if you look at our total revenues for full year 2019, we realized 2% growth on a reported basis and 4% on an underlying basis, with a balanced contribution from both NIR and non-NIR revenues.

因此，如果你看看我們 2019 年全年的總收入，我們的報告成長了 2%，基礎成長了 4%，NIR 和非 NIR 收入的貢獻均衡。

Looking ahead to 2020, we do expect to deliver some growth in net interest revenues this year, despite the change in the direction of rates as loan growth and mix become the primary drivers, and we remain comfortable in our ability to deliver continued growth in noninterest revenues this year, driven by continued fee growth across both our consumer and institutional businesses.

展望 2020 年，儘管由於貸款增長和貸款組合成為主要驅動力而導致利率方向發生變化，但我們確實預計今年淨利息收入將有所增長，而且我們對實現非利息收入持續增長的能力仍然感到滿意今年的收入受到我們消費者和機構業務費用持續成長的推動。

So in aggregate, for total Citigroup, we expect to generate modest year-over-year revenue growth in 2020 on a reported basis.

因此，總體而言，對於整個花旗集團而言，我們預計 2020 年報告的收入將實現適度的同比增長。

On Slide 12, we show our key capital metrics.

在投影片 12 上，我們展示了我們的關鍵資本指標。

In the fourth quarter, our tangible book value per share increased 10% year-over-year to $70.39, driven by net income and lower share count.

在淨利潤和股票數量減少的推動下，第四季度我們的每股有形帳面價值年增 10% 至 70.39 美元。

And our CET 1 capital ratio increased sequentially to 11.7%, driven by a decline in risk-weighted assets.

在風險加權資產下降的推動下，我們的 CET 1 資本比率連續上升至 11.7%。

In summary, we made good progress in 2019, with broad-based revenue growth, positive operating leverage, earnings growth and a sizable return of capital to our shareholders.

總而言之，我們在 2019 年取得了良好進展，收入廣泛增長，營運槓桿呈正值，盈利增長，並為股東帶來了可觀的資本回報。

We improved our RoTCE by over 100 basis points, achieving a full year RoTCE of 12.1%, ahead of our target of 12% for the year.

我們將 RoTCE 提高了 100 多個基點，全年 RoTCE 達到 12.1%，提前完成了全年 12% 的目標。

We drove 2% revenue growth, with a balanced contribution from both our consumer and institutional businesses.

我們的消費者業務和機構業務貢獻均衡，收入成長了 2%。

On the expense side, we were able to hold expenses flat, while making significant investments in the franchise as productivity savings continue to meaningfully outpace our incremental investments as well as offset volume-related expenses.

在費用方面，我們能夠保持費用不變，同時對特許經營權進行大量投資，因為生產力節省繼續顯著超過我們的增量投資，並抵消了與數量相關的費用。

We maintained our credit discipline growing our loan portfolio, while maintaining loss rates within our medium-term expectations across every business and region.

我們維持信用紀律，擴大貸款組合，同時將每個業務和地區的損失率維持在中期預期之內。

On the tax rate, we continued to work to better position the firm post tax reform.

在稅率方面，我們繼續致力於在稅改後更好地定位公司。

And we delivered on our capital optimization goals, returning over $22 billion of capital through share buybacks and dividends during the year.

我們實現了資本優化目標，年內透過股票回購和股利返還了超過 220 億美元的資本。

Importantly, we continue to deepen and broaden our client relationships in order to drive sustainable client-led growth and a steady improvement in returns.

重要的是，我們繼續深化和擴大我們的客戶關係，以推動可持續的客戶主導型成長和回報的穩定提高。

Our results in 2019 give us confidence in 2020, and we are committed to delivering continued progress going forward.

2019 年的業績讓我們對 2020 年充滿信心，我們致力於在未來取得持續進展。

For 2020, we expect to deliver modest top line growth and roughly flat expenses, while continuing to manage the franchise responsibly.

2020 年，我們預計將實現適度的收入成長和大致持平的支出，同時繼續負責任地管理特許經營權。

We expect cost of credit to remain manageable, and we expect our effective tax rate to be around 22% in 2020, excluding any discrete tax items.

我們預計信貸成本將保持在可控範圍內，並且預計 2020 年我們的有效稅率約為 22%（不包括任何離散稅項）。

As Mike mentioned, the revenue environment has changed since we set our targets for 2020, with lower interest rates, slower global growth and the pressure we've seen in industry wallets in markets and banking.

正如麥克所提到的，自從我們設定 2020 年目標以來，收入環境發生了變化，利率下降，全球成長放緩，市場和銀行業的行業錢包面臨壓力。

In an environment similar to the one we are operating in today, we expect to deliver an RoTCE in the range of 12% to 13% for 2020.

在與我們今天所處的環境類似的環境中，我們預計 2020 年的 RoTCE 將在 12% 至 13% 的範圍內。

So we expect we will continue to make progress in improving our returns, and we look forward to having the opportunity to talk more about this year and beyond at our Investor Day in May.

因此，我們預計我們將在提高回報方面繼續取得進展，我們期待有機會在五月的投資者日上更多地談論今年及以後的情況。

With that, Mike and I are happy to take any questions.

因此，麥克和我很樂意回答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) The first question will come from John McDonald with Autonomous.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自 Autonomous 的 John McDonald。

Mark, I wanted to ask about deposit growth.

馬克，我想問一下存款成長的情況。

It seemed like it accelerated throughout the year.

似乎全年都在加速。

You're kind of doing that $2 billion per quarter, it seems like, towards the end of the year.

看起來，到年底，你每季都會投入 20 億美元。

Is that a pace you think you can keep up with the new initiatives on deposit growth?

您認為您能跟上存款成長新措施的腳步嗎？

So we've seen good deposit growth, as you said, through the year in both our consumer business as well as on the institutional side.

因此，正如您所說，這一年我們的消費者業務和機構業務都看到了良好的存款成長。

And that, in many ways, I think, is an important proof point around our consumer strategy.

我認為，從很多方面來說，這都是我們消費者策略的重要證據。

We're continuing to focus on value propositions on the consumer side in order to grow with our card customers and outside of our retail banking markets.

我們將繼續關註消費者方面的價值主張，以便與我們的卡片客戶以及零售銀行市場以外的公司一起成長。

We just launched the high-yield checking account, and we'll continue to develop new products such as with our partner in America Airlines.

我們剛剛推出了高收益支票帳戶，我們將繼續開發新產品，例如與美國航空的合作夥伴。

And those types of initiatives, we expect to continue to fuel continued growth on the deposit side in consumer.

我們預計這些類型的舉措將繼續推動消費者存款方面的持續成長。

We've also, as I said, seen good momentum on the institutional side.

正如我所說，我們也看到了機構方面的良好勢頭。

We expect that growth to continue, and that's an important metric as we think about how we continue to increase our engagement with clients.

我們預計這種成長將持續下去，這是我們考慮如何繼續增加與客戶的互動時的重要指標。

And so yes, we do expect to see continued growth in deposits.

因此，是的，我們確實預計存款將持續成長。

The next question is from Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

So I'm curious, branded card is doing well, up 10%.

所以我很好奇，品牌卡表現不錯，漲了 10%。

When you look at retail services, up 1%.

當你看看零售服務時，成長了 1%。

I'm curious if you could talk about the compare and contrast of what's driving one to better growth.

我很好奇你能否談談推動一個人更好成長的比較和對比。

I don't know if there were any partnership or repricings or lost partners along the way.

我不知道在此過程中是否有任何合作夥伴關係或重新定價或失去的合作夥伴。

Sure.

當然。

So on the branded card side, you've heard us say, through the course of the year, we've continued to see good traction with our clients there.

因此，在品牌卡方面，您已經聽到我們說，在這一年中，我們繼續看到對那裡客戶的良好吸引力。

We've seen purchase sales up 7%, and you've seen continued growth in loans on the branded side.

我們看到採購銷售額成長了 7%，品牌方面的貸款持續成長。

So 1% growth in quarter 1, 2% growth in quarter 2, 3% growth in quarter 3, 4% in quarter 4. So good, good momentum there, a good pace of increase in the average interest earning balances.

第一季成長 1%，第二季成長 2%，第三季成長 3%，第四季成長 4%。

And so that has been a big part and contributor to that 10% growth that you referenced and sizable growth for the full year as well.

因此，這是您提到的 10% 成長以及全年大幅成長的重要組成部分和貢獻者。

On a retail services side, as you know, there are multiple portfolios that make up retail services.

在零售服務方面，如您所知，零售服務由多個組合組成。

And we've seen good momentum and a good number of those portfolios.

我們已經看到了良好的勢頭和大量的此類投資組合。

But within that, obviously, is Sears, which is a partner of ours.

但顯然，其中就有西爾斯，它是我們的合作夥伴。

And that -- the results that we have do reflect the impact from Sears.

我們的結果確實反映了西爾斯的影響。

That said, we've delivered on the 1% we've talked about as guidance for the revenue growth for the quarter.

也就是說，我們已經實現了我們所謂的 1% 作為本季收入成長的指導。

And I think it's 2% for the full year.

我認為全年的成長率為 2%。

We would expect to see continued pressure from the Sears portion of the portfolio, particularly on the purchase sales.

我們預計西爾斯投資組合中的部分將繼續面臨壓力，特別是在採購銷售方面。

And that said, it is still a very profitable portfolio for us.

儘管如此，這對我們來說仍然是一個非常有利可圖的投資組合。

We're still very engaged with the customers there.

我們仍然與那裡的客戶保持著密切的聯繫。

And some 80% of the spend is outside of those stores.

大約 80% 的支出發生在這些商店之外。

And so profitable, good returning, but some pressure given everything going on with that partner.

如此有利可圖，回報良好，但考慮到與該合作夥伴發生的一切，有些壓力。

In particular, the store closures?

特別是商店關閉？

Yes.

是的。

And a very important partner, but a lot going on there.

這是一個非常重要的合作夥伴，但那裡發生了很多事情。

The next question is from Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So Mark, why don't I start off with a question just on some of the RoTCE guidance.

那麼，馬克，我為什麼不先問一些關於 RoTCE 指南的問題呢？

Certainly commendable, you guys delivered on the 12% this year.

當然值得稱讚的是，你們今年實現了 12% 的目標。

That said, I believe it does include about a 50 basis point benefit from discrete tax items.

也就是說，我認為它確實包括離散稅收項目帶來的約 50 個基點的好處。

And so as I think about the core rate, it's maybe somewhere in the zone of 11.6%.

因此，當我考慮核心利率時，它可能在 11.6% 左右。

And I'm just thinking, as we try to unpack the walk to that 12% to 13% you spoke of and the fact that you do have provision likely trending higher in 2020 and assuming no further benefit on the tax side, just help us think through what are some of the key drivers to help us get to that 12% to 13%?

我只是在想，當我們試圖解開你所說的 12% 到 13% 的路程時，事實上你的準備金可能在 2020 年呈上升趨勢，並且假設稅收方面沒有進一步的好處，請幫助我們思考一下幫助我們達到12% 到13% 的關鍵驅動因素有哪些？

Sure.

當然。

So look, I think it's -- if you think about what we saw this year and some of the key important drivers of performance, you can kind of look across many of the businesses and see good top line growth underlying and good EBIT performance.

所以，我認為，如果你考慮我們今年所看到的情況以及業績的一些關鍵驅動因素，你可以縱觀許多業務，並看到良好的營收成長和良好的息稅前利潤表現。

We expect that top line growth to continue, particularly as we continue to execute on our consumer strategy and more deeply penetrate the card customers that we have there and develop new value propositions that we can get out to market, having proven those digital capabilities that we've invested in.

我們預計收入將繼續成長，特別是當我們繼續執行我們的消費者策略並更深入地滲透我們在那裡的卡片客戶並開發我們可以推向市場的新價值主張時，我們已經證明了我們的數位能力已經投資了.

So continued top line growth on the consumer side.

因此，消費者方面的收入持續成長。

We do expect to see good underlying metrics with our institutional clients, particularly in TTS, which is core to our network but also has linkages around -- linkages with the rest of the ICG.

我們確實希望與我們的機構客戶看到良好的基礎指標，特別是在 TTS 方面，它是我們網絡的核心，但也與 ICG 的其他部分有聯繫。

So good continued momentum, deposit volumes and engagement with both new and existing clients on the institutional side and in TTS.

機構方面和 TTS 方面的持續動能、存款量以及新舊客戶的參與度都非常好。

And so top line growth of a couple of percentage points and a constructive capital markets environment with flat expenses.

因此，收入成長了幾個百分點，資本市場環境建設性，支出持平。

And so you -- we referenced that at the beginning of this year and managed to that with all the uncertainty playing through the year, and we are targeting that again for 2020 and the combination of that and continue to work on the cost of credit.

因此，我們在今年年初提到了這一點，並在全年充滿不確定性的情況下設法做到了這一點，我們在 2020 年再次瞄準這一目標，並將其結合起來，並繼續研究信貸成本。

And of course, we'll continue to look at the tax line, but we believe the combination of that focus and continued productivity benefits, funding the volume growth that we expect to have, will get us to the range of the 12% to 13% that I referenced.

當然，我們將繼續關注稅收額度，但我們相信，這一重點與持續的生產力效益相結合，為我們預期的銷量增長提供資金，將使我們達到 12% 至 13% 的範圍我引用的%。

The next question is from Saul Martinez with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的索爾·馬丁內斯。

So I guess, following up -- well, actually, first, more of a clarification.

所以我想，接下來——嗯，實際上，首先，更多的是澄清。

I just want to make sure I heard something correctly.

我只是想確保我聽到的是正確的。

You said, Mark -- you said on the Corporate and Other pretax estimate for next year, I thought I heard $250 million per quarter.

你說，馬克——你說關於明年的企業和其他稅前估計，我想我聽說每季 2.5 億美元。

That can't be right.

那是不對的。

Is that -- did I -- that seems awfully higher.

是不是——我是——這看起來要高得多。

Obviously, it's a much higher run rate than what you've been doing.

顯然，它的運行率比您一直在做的要高得多。

What was -- can you just repeat what that outlook was for pretax for Corporate/Other?

您能否重複企業/其他稅前的前景是什麼？

Sure.

當然。

So I did reference that we would expect to see an impact of about $250 million a quarter for Corporate/Other.

因此，我確實提到，我們預計每季對企業/其他業務的影響約為 2.5 億美元。

That is higher than the prior guidance that I had given of $100 million to $150 million the last time I gave guidance on Corporate/Other.

這高於我上次就企業/其他提供指導時給出的 1 億至 1.5 億美元的指導。

So a bit higher.

所以高一點。

There are a couple of things that impact that or that will drive that, one of which is the impact of rates.

有幾個因素會影響或推動這一點，其中之一就是利率的影響。

We obviously had 3 rate cuts in the back half of 2019.

2019 年下半年，我們顯然進行了 3 次降息。

That plays through the business performance.

這會影響業務績效。

But some of it also plays through the revenue that's in Corporate/Other.

但其中一些也透過公司/其他部門的收入發揮作用。

We also have -- we'll have fewer gains.

我們的收益也會減少。

I referenced some gains that we have from investments that play through 2019 and through the quarter here.

我提到了我們從 2019 年和本季的投資中獲得的一些收益。

So likely to have fewer of those.

所以這些的數量可能會更少。

And then we are -- and I've referenced the investments that we continue to -- want to continue to make or will continue to make, in infrastructure and controls.

然後我們——我已經提到了我們繼續進行的投資——希望繼續或將繼續在基礎設施和控制方面進行投資。

And those investments will be in the form of technology and people and focused on things such as data, data governance and infrastructure.

這些投資將以技術和人員的形式進行，重點關注數據、數據治理和基礎設施等方面。

And so those are important investments that we'll be making.

因此，這些是我們將要進行的重要投資。

And those 3 drivers will be what impacts or is underneath that guidance, not all in the expense line.

這三個驅動因素將影響該指導或在該指導之下，而不是全部在費用線中。

But as I mentioned, we will move to keep the expenses flat.

但正如我所提到的，我們將採取行動保持支出不變。

The next question is from Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research.

下一個問題來自白金漢研究中心的吉姆·米切爾。

A follow-up.

後續行動。

I appreciate the unpredictability of, particularly capital markets revenue, and I assume that's why the wide range in RoTCE.

我欣賞不可預測性，尤其是資本市場收入，我認為這就是 RoTCE 廣泛的原因。

But if we look at the second half of last year, the operating leverage, particularly in the investment bank, has been minimal.

但如果我們看看去年下半年，營運槓桿，尤其是投資銀行的槓桿，一直很小。

It's been okay, but you had 7% -- as a firm, you had 7% growth -- top line growth with some investment gains, 6% expense growth in the fourth quarter.

沒關係，但第四季你有 7%——作為一家公司，你有 7% 的成長——營收成長和一些投資收益，費用成長 6%。

So I just want to understand, I think the upside -- the upper end of that range would imply some pretty good operating leverage.

所以我只是想了解，我認為上行空間——該範圍的上限意味著一些相當不錯的營運槓桿。

So is it some unusual items in the back half of the year, accelerated spending that you expect to slow?

那麼，下半年是否有一些不尋常的項目以及您預計放緩的加速支出？

Or if we see a higher revenue growth, is that going to be offset by volume-related expenses and you just can't get a ton of operating leverage?

或者，如果我們看到更高的收入成長，這是否會被與銷售相關的費用所抵消，而您卻無法獲得大量的營運槓桿？

Just help me think through the expense trajectory and different revenue scenarios.

請幫助我思考支出軌跡和不同的收入狀況。

Well, let me -- Mark, why don't I start?

好吧，讓我——馬克，我為什麼不開始呢？

And maybe just talk a little bit about the revenue environment and what may drive.

也許只是談談收入環境以及可能的推動因素。

So if we look, Jim, at 2019, Mark referenced the back half of the year and rate cuts.

因此，吉姆，如果我們看看 2019 年，馬克提到了下半年和降息。

But I would say, throughout the year, we saw what I would describe as a lot of things out there that was driving uncertainty, be it the lack of a China trade deal, USMCA, where was that headed, Brexit, Hong Kong.

但我想說，在這一年裡，我們看到了很多我所描述的帶來不確定性的事情，無論是缺乏中國貿易協定、美墨加協定、英國脫歐、香港問題。

And I think we see ourselves in a position now where the horizon looks like some of those things may clear, right?

我認為我們現在所處的位置是，其中一些事情可能會變得清晰，對嗎？

Hopefully, we get a trade deal in the next couple of days here, at least Phase 1 of the trade deal, hopefully, USMCA.

希望我們能在接下來的幾天內達成貿易協議，至少是貿易協議的第一階段，希望是 USMCA。

And it looks like it should be pretty well along the path to being ratified, and it looks like we'll get a Brexit deal.

看起來它在獲得批准的道路上應該進展順利，而且看起來我們將達成一項脫歐協議。

So I think some of the things that were overhanging some of the volume-related parts of the market might have a chance to lift and we maybe get a bit more action out of the C-suite, not of some of our investors.

因此，我認為市場上一些與交易量相關的部分懸而未決的事情可能有機會得到改善，我們可能會從首席高管那裡得到更多的行動，而不是我們的一些投資者的行動。

You would see volumes pick up, but I think as we look at the activities that we see, and again, I think, a pretty reasonable close to the year here.

你會看到交易量增加，但我認為，當我們審視我們所看到的活動時，我認為，今年的收盤價相當合理。

When you look at the combination of ECM, when you look at the combination of DCM, banking, more broadly, obviously, M&A down a little bit.

當你看看 ECM 的組合，當你看看更廣泛的 DCM、銀行業的組合時，很明顯，併購下降了一點。

But I think the backlog looks pretty good.

但我認為積壓看起來相當不錯。

And I think the forward calendar, as we look into the other areas, look good.

我認為，當我們研究其他領域時，遠期日曆看起來不錯。

So one is I think there's a pretty good driver on the revenue side.

因此，我認為收入方面有一個非常好的驅動因素。

Yes.

是的。

I guess I'd just add to that, I guess, a couple of things.

我想我只想補充幾件事。

So one, in the broadest sense, again, we -- as we think about 2020, we're targeting flat expenses.

因此，從最廣泛的意義上來說，我們再次考慮 2020 年，我們的目標是固定支出。

With that said, there are a couple of things that are playing through that, that I think will benefit the expense line in 2020 and cover any volume-related increases or investments that we're planning to make.

話雖如此，有幾件事正在發揮作用，我認為這將有利於 2020 年的支出線，並涵蓋我們計劃進行的任何與數量相關的增長或投資。

So one is the productivity saves that we've talked about over the past couple of years and those outpacing investments.

其中之一就是我們在過去幾年中討論過的生產力節省以及超過投資的情況。

And so we expect yet another $500 million to $600 million of productivity benefits to play through 2020.

因此，我們預計到 2020 年將再產生 5 億至 6 億美元的生產力效益。

And that will be used to fund some of those headwinds or investment opportunities.

這將用於為其中一些逆風或投資機會提供資金。

Two, you would have heard us reference a number of times through the course of the year, repositioning charges that we've taken, severance charges as we've adjusted capacity.

第二，您可能會聽到我們在這一年中多次提及，重新定位我們所收取的費用，以及我們調整產能時的遣散費。

Those were obviously increases and expenses in the year that will play out or damage or reflect or generate benefits in 2020, again, creating capacity.

這些顯然是今年的成長和支出，將在 2020 年發揮作用或損害或反映或產生效益，再次創造產能。

And then you -- we referenced the back half and particularly, if you look at the ICG in the last quarter, you got to kind of keep in mind that, that growth in expenses is 10%.

然後你——我們提到了後半部分，特別是，如果你看看上個季度的 ICG，你必須記住，費用增加了 10%。

Top line growth is 8% expenses -- expense growth.

收入成長是 8% 的費用——費用成長。

But that comes with the compensation increase associated with those revenues, the volume increases associated with that activity that we saw in the back half of the year.

但這伴隨著與這些收入相關的薪酬增加，以及我們在今年下半年看到的與活動相關的數量增加。

And so you really got to think about the full year expense base as we go into 2020 as the timing for both investments and the productivity benefits will vary through the course of the year.

因此，當我們進入 2020 年時，您確實必須考慮全年支出基礎，因為投資和生產力收益的時機在一年中都會有所不同。

And we'll get into much more of this and the forward look beyond 2020, obviously, at Investor Day.

顯然，我們將在投資者日討論更多這方面的內容以及 2020 年以後的展望。

The next question is from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的麥克梅奧。

Can you talk about technology spend and where you are in the process and priorities for the back office and the front office?

您能談談技術支出以及您在後台和前台的流程和優先事項中的位置嗎？

I know it's a broad question, but maybe for the back office, like the number of data centers you have or the percent of workload you intend to move to the public cloud.

我知道這是一個廣泛的問題，但也許對於後台來說，例如您擁有的資料中心數量或您打算遷移到公有雲的工作負載百分比。

Or for the front office, a little bit more color on the relationship with Google and where you expect that to go.

或者對於管理層來說，對與Google的關係以及你期望的發展方向有更多的了解。

And then just overall, with total tech spend and where you are in terms of spending or reaping the benefits of past spend.

然後是總體而言，包括總技術支出以及您在支出或從過去支出中獲得的收益方面的情況。

Sure.

當然。

So why don't I start out.

那我為什麼不開始呢？

And Mike -- Mark, you can chime in.

麥克——馬克，你可以插話一下。

So again, I don't want to steal the thunder.

再說一遍，我不想搶風頭。

We'll go into a fair bit of this in detail at Investor Day.

我們將在投資者日詳細討論這一點。

But Mike, I'll give you a couple of examples.

但是麥克，我會給你舉幾個例子。

You've asked the question before in data centers.

您之前曾在資料中心問過這個問題。

And Citi, at its peak, had just over 70 data centers.

花旗在鼎盛時期擁有 70 多個資料中心。

At Investor Day, we told you we were down to 20.

在投資者日，我們告訴您我們的人數已減少至 20 人。

And today, we're down to 10.

今天，我們的人數減少到了 10 人。

What I would say is based on the combination of the necessity of redundancies, GDPR and other things, I won't say 10 is the static number but as you get to 10 and you run a global organization approaching 100 countries, I don't think there's massive opportunity.

我想說的是基於裁員的必要性、GDPR 和其他因素的結合，我不會說 10 是靜態數字，但當你達到 10 並且你經營一個接近 100 個國家的全球組織時，我不認為認為有巨大的機會。

And again, we've got to see how the regulatory and how the legal landscape unfolds in terms of data and data storage.

同樣，我們必須了解資料和資料儲存方面的監管和法律環境如何展開。

Second piece beyond data storage is around data itself.

資料儲存之外的第二部分是資料本身。

That in many ways, Citi personifies big data, operating all the places that we operate.

在很多方面，花旗都體現了大數據的化身，在我們經營的所有地方開展業務。

And if you look at the way that the company came together through acquisitions and through other bolt-ons, we think there's a significant opportunity to really modernize or to take our data to the next stage in terms of giving us benefits, in terms of safety and soundness, in terms of giving us benefits, in terms of straight-through processing, all of those manifesting itself in better client experiences.

如果你看看公司透過收購和其他補充方式合併的方式，我們認為有一個重要的機會來真正實現現代化，或者將我們的數據帶入下一階段，從而為我們帶來好處，在安全方面以及健全性，在為我們帶來好處方面，在直通式處理方面，所有這些都體現在更好的客戶體驗中。

So a part of the number -- a reasonable part of the number that Mark is referencing here in terms of spend, is around what I describe as the modernization of our data and our data approach.

因此，馬克在這裡引用的支出數字中合理的一部分，就是我所描述的數據和數據方法的現代化。

And so we're excited about that.

所以我們對此感到興奮。

I'll give you one example on the consumer side that we talked about last time, and I'll take you to -- back to Page 23, again, around our consumer drivers.

我將給您一個我們上次討論過的消費者方面的例子，然後我將帶您再次回到第 23 頁，圍繞我們的消費者驅動因素。

But if you look at, as an example, the things that we've been doing around our technology and the call centers.

但如果你看一下，作為一個例子，我們一直在圍繞我們的技術和呼叫中心所做的事情。

And if you look at the upper right-hand box around agent contact rates, what you've seen is you've seen basically a circa $15 million reduction in calls, inbound calls into our call centers.

如果您查看右上角的座席聯絡率方框，您會發現我們呼叫中心的來電數量基本上減少了約 1500 萬美元。

And at the same time, the way we're handling those calls through the combination of IVR and chat has changed, where we're able to dedicate our specialists to the more complex things and not being forced to deal with, "What's my balance, when's my payment due, how do I collect my thank you points," types of calls.

同時，我們透過 IVR 和聊天結合來處理這些呼叫的方式也發生了變化，我們能夠讓我們的專家專門處理更複雜的事情，而不是被迫處理「我的平衡是什麼」 、我的付款何時到期、我如何收集我的感謝積分」等類型的電話。

And so at the same time, we're reducing significantly those contact rates, and you can see it there.

因此，與此同時，我們正在顯著降低這些聯繫率，您可以在那裡看到。

We're also taking on more volume, right, as we're growing, as you're growing your card's footprint, as you're growing your digital deposit base, obviously, you're getting more engagement.

我們也正在接受更多的交易量，對吧，隨著我們的發展，隨著您的卡的足跡不斷擴大，隨著您的數位存款基礎不斷擴大，顯然，您會獲得更多的參與度。

And so we're not only on the absolute level reducing the number of inbounds, but we're also taking on volume at obviously very attractive rates.

因此，我們不僅在絕對水準上減少了入站數量，而且還以明顯非常有吸引力的價格增加了數量。

So I think that underscores or highlights why we believe, and I think you've seen in the numbers that we've put up, as we've made some of these investments in technology, we've gotten pretty good paybacks and we think the paybacks that we can get out of the things that we've got on the slate certainly warrant going after them.

因此，我認為這強調或強調了我們為何相信，而且我認為您已經在我們提供的數字中看到了，因為我們在技術方面進行了一些投資，我們獲得了相當不錯的回報，我們認為我們可以從我們已經擁有的東西中獲得回報，當然值得我們去追求它們​​。

Yes, I'd agree with that.

是的，我同意這一點。

And Mike, I think about it, as Mike described, but kind of in 4 buckets.

麥克，我想了一下，正如麥克所描述的，但可以分成四個部分。

And so as we think about technology investments, there are investments that we are making that are directly client-related, think about new products, new solutions, think about the work we do with our TTS clients.

因此，當我們考慮技術投資時，我們正在進行一些與客戶直接相關的投資，考慮新產品、新解決方案，考慮我們與 TTS 客戶所做的工作。

And as we identify pain points, whether it be managing their receivables or managing their invoices, we invest in other technologies.

當我們發現痛點時，無論是管理他們的應收帳款還是管理他們的發票，我們都會投資其他技術。

We invest in our own solutions to service those client-related needs, if you will, think about client service from a client experience point of view, and the investments that we're making to do things like streamlined onboarding.

我們投資於我們自己的解決方案來滿足那些與客戶相關的需求，如果您願意，請從客戶體驗的角度考慮客戶服務，以及我們為簡化入職等事情而進行的投資。

I referenced that regarding digital customers' on-boarding, but we also invest a lot in how we onboard our corporate clients in new countries as we enter markets with them.

我提到了關於數位客戶的入職，但我們在與新國家/地區的企業客戶一起進入市場時也投入了大量資金。

Those are technology investments.

這些都是技術投資。

That's the second bucket.

這是第二個桶子。

The third bucket is just how we streamline our own operations, our own internal processes, how we do more in the way of automation, less manual reconciliation and manual work.

第三個方面是我們如何簡化我們自己的營運、我們自己的內部流程，我們如何以自動化的方式做更多的事情，減少手動對帳和手動工作。

There's an opportunity there for -- to manage data from input straight through output, as Mike's referenced and there are in paybacks on the streamlining of internal processes.

正如麥克所提到的那樣，有一個機會可以管理從輸入到輸出的數據，並且可以透過簡化內部流程來獲得回報。

And then the fourth bucket, and I separate it because of -- in part because of its significance, Mike has referenced before, which is cyber.

然後是第四個桶，我將其分開是因為——部分是因為它的重要性，麥克之前提到過，那就是網路。

And so cyber is a very important technology investment for us to both protect the franchise and protect our clients and we've been growing that over the past 5 years and expect to continue to grow our investment in cyber.

因此，網路對我們來說是一項非常重要的技術投資，既可以保護特許經營權，也可以保護我們的客戶，在過去 5 年裡我們一直在不斷發展，並期望繼續增加對網路的投資。

So just another way to think about the lens that we look at, the technology investment and need for it as we go into 2020.

因此，在進入 2020 年時，我們可以用另一種方​​式來思考我們所關注的鏡頭、技術投資和需求。

The next question will come from Erika Najarian with Bank of America.

下一個問題將由美國銀行的 Erika Najarian 提出。

Mike, does the 12% to 13% RoTCE for this year fully capture the potential of the franchise?

麥克，今年 12% 到 13% 的 RoTCE 是否充分發揮了該系列的潛力？

Or -- and I expect you to give us more detail on Investor Day?

或者—我希望您能在投資者日向我們提供更多細節？

Or do you think continued improvement could be realized from here if we keep the rate curve fairly flat and there's no major change in the global economic outlook?

或者您認為，如果我們保持利率曲線相當平坦並且全球經濟前景沒有重大變化，那麼從現在開始可以實現持續改善嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Again, we've kind of talked about the steps along the way.

我們再次討論了一路走來的步驟。

And you mentioned the word improvement, and improvement is paramount in terms of the way we're approaching 2020.

您提到了「改進」這個詞，就我們邁向 2020 年的方式而言，改進至關重要。

And we think we've got the ability, using technology, client engagement, wallet share gains, a lot of the leverage that we've spoken to on the revenue and expense side of continuing to make improvement and make progress against those benchmarks.

我們認為我們有能力利用技術、客戶參與度、錢包份額收益以及我們在收入和支出方面談到的許多槓桿來繼續改進並根據這些基準取得進展。

Yes, I completely agree.

是的，我完全同意。

I mean, we are focused on significant improvement over time.

我的意思是，我們專注於隨著時間的推移取得重大改進。

We've made progress over the past couple of years when we talked last about our underlying performance, consumer and the ICG.

當我們上次談論我們的基本績效、消費者和 ICG 時，我們在過去幾年中取得了進展。

We pointed to consumer as having the opportunity to close the gap between where we were 2 years ago and something we thought was up in the 20% or so, we're making good progress on that.

我們指出，消費者有機會縮小 2 年前的水平與我們認為的 20% 左右之間的差距，我們在這方面取得了良好的進展。

We think there's continued upside there.

我們認為那裡還會繼續上漲。

We also have talked about when you think about our TCE and how it's broken out between Consumer, ICG and Corporate/Other, we know that over time, some portion of what we have in Corporate/Other, that TCE that's tied to the excess capital that we have, the DTA, Citi Holdings.

我們還討論了當您考慮我們的TCE 以及它如何在消費者、ICG 和企業/其他之間進行劃分時，我們知道，隨著時間的推移，我們在企業/其他中擁有的一部分TCE 與超額資本相關我們有 DTA、花旗控股。

Over time, that will work itself down, and that in and of itself will contribute to improved RoTCE.

隨著時間的推移，這種情況會自行緩解，而其本身將有助於改善 RoTCE。

So we've got a real sense of urgency to improve our RoTCE responsibly over time, and we intend to continue to do that.

因此，我們確實有緊迫感，需要隨著時間的推移負責任地改進我們的 RoTCE，並且我們打算繼續這樣做。

The next question will come from Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將由德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納提出。

I was wondering if you could just talk about what you're working on in the equities business.

我想知道您是否可以談談您在股票業務方面的工作。

Obviously, that's been an area of focus the last few years, you had some signs of progress, a tough quarter this quarter.

顯然，這是過去幾年的一個重點領域，有一些進展的跡象，本季是一個艱難的季度。

I don't want to kind of overplay it.

我不想誇大其詞。

It's only a few percent of revenue, but you're very strong in gaining share in FICC, strong and seems like gaining some share in banking.

它只佔收入的百分之幾，但你在固定收益和固定收益方面獲得的份額非常強大，而且似乎在銀行業獲得了一些份額。

And it's still kind of, call it, the missing piece in the puzzle from my perspective.

從我的角度來看，它仍然是拼圖中缺少的一塊。

So maybe you could just talk about the strategic outlook there and what you're working on?

那麼也許您可以談談那裡的戰略前景以及您正在做什麼？

Sure.

當然。

So as you recall, several years ago, we embarked on the mission, and at the time, we were about #9 of moving into the top 5. Today, we find ourselves at #6.

正如您所記得的那樣，幾年前，我們開始了這項使命，當時，我們在進入前 5 名的過程中排名第 9。

And along the way, we've consistently taken share and this year, probably not so.

一路走來，我們一直在佔據份額，但今年可能並非如此。

We look like based on some coalition data or others we're probably kind of flat to market.

根據一些聯盟數據或其他數據，我們看起來可能與市場持平。

But not -- certainly not where we want to be and not where this ends.

但不是──當然不是我們想要達到的目標，也不是結局。

I think as we look at things that we've done, you've seen us adjusting, in particular, front-end capacity against the business in particular, in terms of cash, making investments in Delta One derivatives, prime broker, but I would also urge you not just to look at what we post as the trading revenues, call it, roughly $3 billion for the year.

我認為，當我們審視我們所做的事情時，你會看到我們針對業務進行調整，特別是針對業務的前端能力，特別是在現金方面，對Delta One 衍生品、主要經紀商進行投資，但我我還敦促您不要只看我們發布的交易收入，即今年約 30 億美元。

I think you've got to look at the aggregate business, which includes GCM, about another $1 billion of revenue as well as our security services business, about another $2.5 billion of revenue.

我認為你必須專注於整體業務，其中包括 GCM（約另外 10 億美元的收入）以及我們的安全服務業務（約另外 25 億美元的收入）。

So as we look at and think about our equity business, it's about a $6.5 billion business to us.

因此，當我們審視並思考我們的股權業務時，它對我們來說大約是 65 億美元的業務。

So it is in aggregate a meaningful business.

因此，總的來說，這是一項有意義的業務。

That being said, we still have our objective to break top 5. That being said, we still think we can improve profitability and returns in the business.

話雖如此，我們的目標仍然是突破前五名。

But again, we're focused on the end-to-end, the pre-trade, the trade, post-trade and trying to maximize the overall benefits of that through our franchise, but Matt, more work to do there.

但同樣，我們專注於端到端、交易前、交易、交易後，並試圖透過我們的特許經營權最大化整體利益，但馬特，還有更多的工作要做。

The next question is from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

A couple of questions.

有幾個問題。

One, on the capital side of the RoTCE, I think you did indicate that you feel like you have some more opportunity there to give back excess capital.

第一，在 RoTCE 的資本方面，我認為您確實表明您覺得您有更多機會回饋多餘資本。

I guess, I wanted to understand, in the most recent CCAR cycle, do you feel like you maxed out that ask or that you were holding back?

我想，我想了解，在最近的 CCAR 週期中，您是否覺得您已經滿足了該要求，或者您在猶豫？

And I'm just asking because I'm wondering if we should be expecting acceleration from here as we go into 2020 CCAR cycle?

我之所以這麼問，是因為我想知道，當我們進入 2020 年 CCAR 週期時，我們是否應該期待從這裡開始加速？

Yes, thanks.

對了謝謝。

So we -- we've obviously worked down over time much of the excess capital that we have.

因此，隨著時間的推移，我們顯然已經減少了我們擁有的大部分過剩資本。

We've gone from having a CET1 ratio somewhere around 13% or so and kind of working that down to -- we'll end the year roughly at 11.7%.

我們的 CET1 比率已從 13% 左右下降到 - 我們將在今年年底達到約 11.7%。

And so there'll be less excess that's there.

因此，多餘的東西就會減少。

We obviously will go through the CCAR process as we've done in the past and try to responsibly come up with as much as we can return to shareholders.

顯然，我們將像過去一樣完成 CCAR 流程，並嘗試負責任地為股東提供盡可能多的回報。

That is an important driver in us delivering on the continued progress that we've talked about.

這是我們實現我們所討論的持續進展的重要驅動力。

We obviously would want to and will first look to what opportunities for growth of the business exist.

顯然，我們希望並且將首先關注存在哪些業務成長機會。

So out of the earnings we're able to generate, and first, to fund that growth, and then with what's left and available to shareholders, including the benefits from the reduction in the disallowed DTA that we've been targeting from year-to-year, we would look to distribute that, both in form of continued dividends as well as buybacks.

因此，從我們能夠產生的收益中，首先為這種增長提供資金，然後用剩餘的資金提供給股東，包括我們每年都瞄準的禁止雙重稅收協定減少所帶來的好處- 年，我們希望以持續股利和回購的形式進行分配。

And so there is some excess that's there.

所以存在一些多餘的東西。

Obviously, there are a number of factors that go into that analysis, including the scenario and so on and so forth, but we'll continue down the path of returning as much as we responsibly can and as makes sense given the growth trajectory we see.

顯然，該分析需要考慮許多因素，包括情景等，但我們將繼續沿著盡可能負責任的回報之路前進，考慮到我們所看到的成長軌跡，這也是有意義的。

And so on your 12% to 13% RoTCE goal, is the degree of capital you're envisioning returning, and I would think, a function of that range as well?

那麼，關於您 12% 至 13% 的 RoTCE 目標，您設想的資本回報程度（我認為）也是該範圍的函數嗎？

But that range is being driven in part by the capital.

但這範圍在某種程度上是由資本所推動的。

I know you discussed it, yes.

我知道你討論過，是的。

Yes.

是的。

So that -- yes, but the range does include continued return of capital, not at the payout ratios we've seen in the past for the reasons that I mentioned, but absolutely, it includes a competitive continued payout in that 12% to 13% range -- 12% to 13% RoTCE range.

所以 - 是的，但範圍確實包括持續的資本回報，而不是我們過去看到的派息率，因為我提到的原因，但絕對包括 12% 至 13% 的有競爭力的持續派息% 範圍-- 12% 至13% RoTCE 範圍。

Right.

正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And then just separately on your card guidance, you gave some guidance for card net charge-offs, both on the branded and the retail partner card.

然後，在您的卡片指南中，您分別為品牌卡和零售合作夥伴卡的卡淨沖銷提供了一些指導。

And I guess, I'm wondering does that include your expectation for what day 2 CECL impact is likely to be?

我想，我想知道這是否包括您對 CECL 第 2 天可能產生的影響的預期？

And maybe you could speak a little bit to how you're thinking about CECL?

也許您可以談談您對 CECL 的看法？

And what your assumptions are for the reasonable supportable period of CECL from an economic input perspective?

從經濟投入的角度來看，您對CECL合理支持期限的假設是什麼？

Sure.

當然。

Let me kind of break that in 2 pieces, if I can.

如果可以的話，讓我把它分成兩個部分。

So on the guidance that I gave regarding cost of credit in cards or NCL rates, I should say, in cards, I referenced that it would be a little bit above the 300 to 325 basis points of the medium-term target that we'd set and for branded.

因此，根據我給出的關於信用卡信貸成本或 NCL 利率的指導，我應該說，在信用卡方面，我提到，這將略高於我們設定的中期目標 300 至 325 個基點。

And my reference there, and I think I've mentioned this in the past, is that we've seen a higher percentage of conversion into average interest earning balances.

我的參考意見是，我想我過去已經提到過這一點，我們看到轉換為平均利息收入餘額的比例更高。

And so with that higher volume than expected, which is a good thing, it comes with -- it's a profitable, high-quality volume activity, but with that comes higher NCLs.

因此，成交量高於預期，這是一件好事，它是一項有利可圖、高品質的成交量活動，但隨之而來的是更高的 NCL。

And so much of the increase that I referenced, that would put us potentially outside of that range is driven by that.

我提到的大部分成長都是由這一點推動的，這可能會讓我們超出這個範圍。

In terms of -- we have in how we think about our forecast and certainly the range that I've articulated and we have factored in the impact of how we think about CECL, we've -- I've referenced in the past a range of roughly 20% to 30% on the high end in terms of the day 1 impact.

就我們如何看待我們的預測以及我所闡明的範圍而言，我們已經考慮了我們對 CECL 的看法的影響，我過去曾提到過就第一天的影響而言，上限約為20% 至30 %。

We expect the day 1 impact to increase the reserves by roughly 29% to get a little bit more precise or roughly $4 billion.

我們預計第一天的影響將使儲備金增加約 29%，更精確一點，約 40 億美元。

So inside of the range that I've communicated in the past, the regulatory capital -- from a regulatory capital perspective, that will be about 6 basis points of CET1 capital in 2020 with a full impact of about 24 basis points by the time we get to the first quarter of '23 -- 2023.

因此，在我過去傳達的範圍內，監管資本——從監管資本的角度來看，到 2020 年，CET1 資本將達到約 6 個基點，到我們的時候，其全面影響將達到約 24 個基點。到2023 年第一季。

As you would imagine the significant build is on the consumer side.

正如您所想像的那樣，重要的建構是在消費者方面。

So to your reference to cards, it's being driven by cards.

因此，就您對卡片的引用而言，它是由卡片驅動的。

And that is based on the increased coverage from 14 months to about 23 months.

這是基於保險範圍從 14 個月增加到約 23 個月的基礎上。

And so that's the more significant pieces, offset by a decrease in the corporate build, which nets down to about the $4 billion.

因此，這是更重要的部分，被企業建設的減少所抵消，淨額下降至約 40 億美元。

You referenced kind of day 2, and we'll talk more about that, I'm sure, in the forward quarters, but there are obviously a number of moving variables that go into that calculation, whether it be kind of economic conditions or the seasonality of the business.

您提到了第二天，我確信，在未來幾個季度，我們將更多地討論這一點，但顯然有許多移動變數會進入該計算，無論是經濟狀況還是經濟狀況。

There are a number of factors there that impact day 2, and we've considered that as we look at our 2020 forecast.

影響第二天的因素有很多，我們在查看 2020 年預測時已經考慮到了這一點。

And as I've given you that range, it factors in that consideration.

正如我給你的範圍一樣，它也考慮到了這一點。

The next question is from Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Just a question on capital.

只是資本問題。

I know we're all waiting just the finalization of SCB and the stress test framework, also coming out of the year-end.

我知道我們都在等待 SCB 和壓力測試框架的最終確定，這些框架也在年底發布。

Any -- I assume that there was no change to your G-SIB where you landed and all.

任何 - 我假設您登陸的 G-SIB 沒有任何變化。

And so I guess, just the question is just what do you -- how are you setting up in terms of the expectations for, regardless of timing around SCB, any potential changes to what the final framework might look like?

所以我想，問題在於，無論 SCB 的時間安排如何，您如何設定最終框架可能出現的任何潛在變化的期望？

And any anticipated changes to how you have to think about that?

您的思考方式是否會發生任何預期的變化？

Sure.

當然。

So I guess, I'll first just address directly your reference to the G-SIB score.

所以我想，我首先會直接提及您對 G-SIB 分數的參考。

At the third quarter, we ended up at about 628, which is right below the 629.

第三季度，我們的成績約為 628，正好低於 629。

And so still in the 3% bucket.

所以仍然在 3% 的範圍內。

We ended -- we should end the fourth quarter well into or inside of that 3% bucket as well.

我們結束了——我們應該在第四季結束時也能達到或在 3% 的範圍內。

So below the 629 in the low 600s or so.

所以低於 629，大約在 600 左右。

Just given some of the seasonality that we see and the focus that we obviously put on, on ensuring that we're managing the business in a responsible way.

考慮到我們看到的一些季節性以及我們明顯關注的重點，即確保我們以負責任的方式管理業務。

And so 3% bucket is where we expect to be for -- by the year-end or for the year-end here 2019.

因此，我們預計到年底或 2019 年年底，將達到 3%。

In terms of the stress capital buffer, we've heard, as you've heard, a lot of -- a number of comments around the interest in getting something out for this next CCAR cycle.

就壓力資本緩衝而言，正如您所聽到的，我們聽到了很多關於為下一個 CCAR 週期拿出一些東西的興趣的評論。

We haven't seen anything as of yet, that would need to come out, I think, by middle of February.

到目前為止我們還沒有看到任何消息，我想這需要在二月中旬之前公佈。

We obviously are continuing with the normal planning of our CCAR submission.

顯然，我們正在繼續正常計劃 CCAR 提交。

When I think about how we consider that or how we factor that in, I kind of go back to the CET1 ratio that we managed to of about 11.5%.

當我思考我們如何考慮這一點或如何將其考慮在內時，我有點回到我們設法達到的約 11.5% 的 CET1 比率。

And we have kind of a number of buffers in there but 1 buffer in there to account for our estimation of the impact of the stress capital buffer, so about 50 basis points above the capital conservation buffer that we have there.

我們在那裡有很多緩衝，但其中有 1 個緩衝來解釋我們對壓力資本緩衝影響的估計，因此比我們在那裡的資本保護緩衝高出大約 50 個基點。

And then we also have a management buffer.

然後我們還有一個管理緩衝區。

And so my thinking is that as that -- as we get more information and clarity on the proposal, we should be able to cover that inside of how we're managing the target that we already have for ourselves.

所以我的想法是，隨著我們獲得更多關於該提案的資訊和清晰度，我們應該能夠在我們如何管理我們已經為自己設定的目標的內部涵蓋這一點。

The final point I'll make is that we continue to take some comfort in the regulators' comments and views that whatever we do with any one of these proposals, including the SCB that we're targeting capital neutrality across the industry and we want to take a holistic approach that is factoring in how each of these proposals will work together in an integrated fashion while preserving that capital neutrality.

我要說的最後一點是，我們繼續對監管機構的評論和觀點感到安慰，無論我們對這些提案中的任何一項做什麼，包括SCB，我們的目標是整個行業的資本中性，我們希望採取整體方法，考慮每個提案如何以綜合方式協同工作，同時保持資本中立。

So...

所以...

Got it.

知道了。

Understood.

明白了。

And just outside the seasonality, is there anything that, just given the environment and some of the ins and outs of a balance -- that balance sheet of volatility -- seasonality got you inside that G-SIB.

在季節性之外，考慮到環境和平衡的一些細節（波動性的資產負債表），是否有任何季節性因素會讓你進入 G-SIB 範圍內。

Thanks for clarifying that.

感謝您澄清這一點。

Anything else just changing in terms of just flows that you see from the business outside a normal course that's coming via the repo markets, the Fed balance sheet expansion?

就您從回購市場、聯準會資產負債表擴張等正常流程之外的業務中看到的流動來看，還有其他變化嗎？

Or is it -- just really was the seasonality?

或者真的是季節性嗎？

It was seasonality, and we obviously work to ensure that we were meeting client needs while being able to deliver inside of that bucket, but nothing outside of that, nothing related to kind of the repo activity that you mentioned in the market.

這是季節性的，我們顯然努力確保滿足客戶需求，同時能夠在該桶內交付，但除此之外沒有任何東西，與您在市場上提到的回購活動類型無關。

The next question is from Brian Kleinhanzl with KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Kleinhanzl。

Just a quick question on the NIR guidance.

關於 NIR 指南的一個簡單問題。

Can you just kind of walk us through the puts and takes that gets you comfortable with being able to grow in 2020?

您能否向我們介紹一下讓您對 2020 年成長感到滿意的看跌和看跌？

And then also what's the macro assumptions you're using behind that?

那麼您背後所使用的宏觀假設是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So as I mentioned, we expect kind of total revenue growth in 2020 with a mix from both NIR and non-NIR.

正如我所提到的，我們預計 2020 年總收入將實現 NIR 和非 NIR 混合成長。

We would expect that, that would be driven by both loan growth as well as mix to get to that NIR growth that's there.

我們預計，這將受到貸款成長以及貸款成長的推動，以實現 NIR 成長。

There will probably be some -- or there will be some kind of volatility on a quarterly basis just due to the idea that NIR has market business, NIR that flows through there as well, and I walked through that dynamic last quarter.

可能會有一些——或者每季度會有某種波動，只是因為 NIR 擁有市場業務，NIR 也流經那裡，我在上個季度經歷了這種動態。

But we do expect loan growth and mix to be primary drivers there, offsetting, obviously, some of the pressure in terms of the impact of rates -- of interest rates.

但我們確實預計貸款成長和組合將成為那裡的主要驅動力，顯然會抵消利率影響方面的一些壓力。

And your point around kind of how we think about the forward look.

您的觀點是關於我們如何看待未來的觀點。

As we plan for 2020, similar to what's out there and where the forward curve, we've assumed one additional rate cut of about 25 basis points towards the back end of 2020.

在我們對 2020 年的計畫中，與目前的情況和遠期曲線類似，我們假設在 2020 年底再降息約 25 個基點。

So 2020, we'll have the full impact of the 3 cuts we saw in the back half of '19 and assumed 1 incremental rate cut in the back half of 2020.

因此，到 2020 年，我們將受到 19 年下半年 3 次降息的全面影響，並假設 2020 年下半年將有 1 次增量降息。

The next question is from Marty Mosby with Vining Sparks.

下一個問題來自 Vining Sparks 的 Marty Mosby。

And the net interest margin kind of bounces around, and it's not really flat or trending like what you would see in the rest of the group.

淨利差有點反彈，而且並不像您在該組其他公司中看到的那樣真正持平或呈趨勢。

So just was curious, the positive benefit you got this quarter, it doesn't seem like the balance sheet really created, it looked like it was a real positive earnings impact because NII was stronger.

所以我很好奇，本季你獲得的正面效益，資產負債表似乎並沒有真正創造出來，它看起來像是真正的正面收益影響，因為 NII 更強。

Is it more sustainable?

它更可持續嗎？

Or how do you kind of -- what are the bearings that kind of move that as we go forward?

或者說，當我們前進時，推動我們前進的方向是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So the net interest margin grew by about 7 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

因此淨利差較上季成長約7個基點。

And much of that, as I mentioned earlier, was driven by the market's revenue.

正如我之前提到的，其中很大一部分是由市場收入所驅動的。

So we saw a big uptick, obviously, year-over-year as the fourth quarter rebounded and so that mix resulted in an increase in the NIM to 2.63%.

因此，隨著第四季度的反彈，我們顯然看到同比大幅上升，這種混合導致淨利差 (NIM) 上升至 2.63%。

And as we go forward, I am really -- I haven't given a forecast on NIM going forward.

隨著我們的前進，我真的——我還沒有對 NIM 的未來做出預測。

I have spoken, obviously, as I just mentioned, to NIR and non-NIR.

顯然，正如我剛才提到的，我已經談到了 NIR 和非 NIR。

But obviously, all of the factors you would imagine, such as the loan growth and the mix and all of those things, will factor in to how NIM plays out in the balance of 2020.

但顯然，你能想到的所有因素，例如貸款成長和貸款組合以及所有這些因素，都將影響淨利差在 2020 年餘下時間的表現。

And then, Mike, I wanted to ask you, at last Investor Day that Citigroup hosted, it really was about capital.

然後，麥克，我想問你，在花旗集團主辦的最後投資者日上，這確實是關於資本的。

You also then talked about how you had to invest in the business.

然後您也談到如何投資該業務。

And the overall revenue outlook, it was pretty dicey.

整體收入前景非常不確定。

It just feels like we're in a totally different place where revenue is starting to pick up a little momentum.

感覺我們正處於一個完全不同的地方，收入開始出現一些成長勢頭。

The investment that was required over the last couple of years, you've accomplished that, so probably maybe not as much going forward.

過去幾年所需的投資，你已經完成了，所以未來可能不會那麼多。

So the dynamic could kind of move away from just capital as being the driver to actually now the fundamentals of the business starting to perk up a little bit going into this next Investor Day.

因此，這種動態可能會從僅僅資本作為驅動力轉變為實際上現在業務的基本面開始在下一個投資者日開始有所回升。

Marty, I'd love to tell you it's an easy environment.

馬蒂，我很想告訴你這是一個輕鬆的環境。

But I think as we look towards the future, I think, one is that our levels of client engagement and what you've seen since Investor Day, we talked about revenue gains coming off of kind of potential wallet expansion, but in particular, market share gains.

但我認為，當我們展望未來時，我認為，其中之一是我們的客戶參與水平以及自投資者日以來所看到的情況，我們談到了潛在的錢包擴張帶來的收入收益，但特別是市場分享收益。

And I think as you look across all of our businesses or certainly most of our businesses, we've had that.

我認為，當你審視我們所有的業務，或肯定是我們的大多數業務時，我們已經做到了這一點。

And I would expect at Investor Day, we're going to talk more about that.

我預計在投資者日，我們將更多地討論這一點。

As the things we do, I think, continue to resonate with the clients, as the investments that we've made in our products, the investments that we've made in service, I think, continue to reap good benefits.

我認為，隨著我們所做的事情繼續引起客戶的共鳴，隨著我們對產品的投資、對服務的投資，我認為繼續獲得良好的效益。

You'll hear us talk again about continued expense discipline.

您將再次聽到我們談論持續的費用紀律。

But at the same time, you'll hear us talk about the investments in technology and technology infrastructure and those pieces, which we think gives a multiple benefit to safety soundness, gives a benefit to customer experience and obviously, gives a benefit on the cost side of things.

但同時，您會聽到我們談論對技術和技術基礎設施以及這些方面的投資，我們認為這些投資可以為安全穩健性帶來多重好處，為客戶體驗帶來好處，而且顯然還可以降低成本事情的一面。

So again, I think as you cite, I think the big outsized times of capital return versus net income are probably coming to an end.

因此，我認為正如您所引用的那樣，我認為資本回報率與淨收入比率的巨大時代可能即將結束。

But I think at the same time, the momentum in the franchise accelerates.

但我認為與此同時，特許經營的勢頭正在加速。

The next question is from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的傑拉德·卡西迪。

Mark, I know you just gave us some of the assumptions that you guys are looking on the macro for your revenue growth for 2020.

馬克，我知道您剛剛向我們提出了一些假設，即您正在關注 2020 年收入成長的宏觀情況。

If we're just talking on this call a year from now, and you guys have better-than-expected than modest total revenue growth, what are some of the data points do you think we need to look at throughout the year where the revenue growth could come in stronger?

如果我們只是在一年後的電話會議上討論，而你們的總收入成長優於預期，而不是適度的總收入成長，那麼你們認為我們需要查看全年收入的哪些數據點成長會更加強勁嗎？

Sure.

當然。

So when I think about 2020, there are a couple of, I think, critically important factors that I look to.

因此，當我思考 2020 年時，我認為有幾個至關重要的因素值得關注。

One is continued execution on our North America consumer strategy.

一是繼續執行我們的北美消費者策略。

We've gotten some good momentum through the course of '19.

我們在 19 年取得了一些良好的勢頭。

We've made meaningful progress in terms of the capabilities to more deeply penetrate our customers.

我們在更深入滲透客戶的能力方面取得了有意義的進展。

We've seen good client engagement across that portfolio.

我們在該產品組合中看到了良好的客戶參與度。

And so that continued momentum playing into 2020 and to the extent that it plays in even more significantly, I think you'll see that as we penetrate more customers, as we grow volumes with those customers, as they use our products and services more, whether through purchase sales or any of the other metrics or Citigold house -- Citigold households, et cetera.

因此，這種勢頭持續到2020 年，並且發揮得更加顯著，我想你會看到，隨著我們滲透到更多客戶，隨著我們與這些客戶的數量增長，隨著他們更多地使用我們的產品和服務，無論是透過購買銷售或任何其他指標或 Citigold house——Citigold 家庭等等。

The second category is, as I think about our global corporate client in our institutional client group and the continued good and great engagement that we're seeing with those clients, not just in -- in TTS around the world, not just existing clients but new clients that we've been able to onboard and grow with very rapidly, not just with cash management products, but also with capital markets offerings like our FX capabilities.

第二類是，我認為我們的機構客戶群中的全球企業客戶以及我們與這些客戶的持續良好和良好的互動，不僅僅是在世界各地的 TTS 中，不僅僅是現有客戶，而且我們能夠快速吸引新客戶並與之一起成長，不僅透過現金管理產品，還透過我們的外匯功能等資本市場產品。

And the benefits that those clients are realizing as we invest in technologies that bring those product capabilities together or so -- to create solutions that allow them to run their operations more efficiently.

當我們投資將這些產品功能整合在一起的技術時，這些客戶正在實現的好處 - 創建解決方案，使他們能夠更有效地運作其營運。

And so more traction there would be a second thing that you would look to, I think.

因此，我認為，您會關注第二件事，以獲得更大的吸引力。

And then the third thing would be something that -- one of the things Mike has referenced to a number of times on this call, but that discipline around the need to invest across the franchise.

第三件事是麥克在這次電話會議上多次提到的事情之一，但圍繞著整個特許經營權投資所需的紀律。

And not just in growth, but certainly in growth, around those important capabilities, but also in how we improve the way we go to market, the way we run our businesses and the efficiency around that.

不僅是成長，而且肯定是圍繞著這些重要能力的成長，而且還包括我們如何改進進入市場的方式、我們經營業務的方式以及圍繞這些能力的效率。

I think the combination of those things, and return of capital obviously, will be the things that you will be able to look at, at the end of 2020 and have a greater sense of clarity as to why we ended up, where we ended up, in or better than that range.

我認為，到 2020 年底，這些事情的結合以及資本回報顯然將是您能夠看到的事情，並且對我們最終的原因和結果有更清晰的認識，在該範圍內或優於該範圍。

Mike, I don't know if there's anything you want to add to that.

麥克，我不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

Well said.

說得好。

And tying in to some of your answer, Mark.

並結合你的一些答案，馬克。

Mike, obviously, the consumer business, credit cards is a great example, is economies of scale and the community banks in the States and even some of the regional banks, really cannot compete with you and your peers at a profitable level that most investors would find acceptable.

麥克，顯然，消費者業務，信用卡就是一個很好的例子，是規模經濟，美國的社區銀行，甚至一些地區銀行，確實無法在大多數投資者所期望的盈利水平上與您和您的同行競爭覺得可以接受。

If we shift over now to the capital markets business, and I know you have that economies of scale in Treasury and Trade Solutions, do you think, Mike, in 3, 4 years, could the capital markets be something similar to the credit cards where the 5 dominant banks really kind of run the show like in credit cards, for example?

如果我們現在轉向資本市場業務，我知道您在資金和貿易解決方案方面具有規模經濟，麥克，您認為在三四年內，資本市場是否會類似於信用卡，例如，5家占主導地位的銀行真的像信用卡一樣掌控局面嗎？

I think, Gerard, you're already seeing some of that.

我想，傑拉德，你已經看到了其中的一些。

And we can cite different examples, but one is in Europe, the fact today that in Europe, the top 5 banks in the market space are all U.S. banks, right?

我們可以舉出不同的例子，但一個是在歐洲，事實上，今天在歐洲，市場上前五名的銀行都是美國銀行，對吧？

And by nature of the businesses, those banks are largely all -- certainly, we are operating at scale in the businesses that we're in.

從業務性質來看，這些銀行基本上都是——當然，我們在我們所從事的業務中大規模地經營。

And so scale matters and we measure scale lots of different ways.

因此規模很重要，我們用很多不同的方式來衡量規模。

And certainly, in the consumer business, but also in the institutional business, part of scale is your ability to invest, control and build your tech stack, your tech infrastructure to make sure that you're at or out in front in terms of the evolution of the business.

當然，在消費者業務中，而且在機構業務中，規模的一部分是你投資、控制和建立你的技術堆疊、你的技術基礎設施的能力，以確保你在以下方面處於領先地位或領先地位。業務的演變。

So I think you'd continue to see consolidation in the capital market space.

所以我認為你會繼續看到資本市場領域的整合。

The next question the next question is from Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

A couple of questions, Mark.

有幾個問題，馬克。

Firstly, your guidance on revenue growth by growth and outlook for 2020.

首先，您對 2020 年營收成長的指導和展望。

When I look at your revenue growth for '19 as a starting point, you had about $1 billion increase in securities gains and the trade web gains, and I see that was about 2%.

當我以 19 年的收入成長為起點時，您的證券收益和貿易網絡收益增加了約 10 億美元，我發現增幅約為 2%。

So I guess, the question is, as you look out to 2020, do you expect these securities gains to continue?

所以我想，問題是，展望 2020 年，您預期這些證券收益會持續下去嗎？

Do you have any impact coming from onetime gains?

一次性收益對你有影響嗎？

And also, what are your assumptions for rates outside the U.S.?

另外，您對美國以外的利率有何假設？

Vivek, I apologize.

維維克，我道歉。

I just have had a hard time hearing your question.

我只是很難聽到你的問題。

I really apologize.

我真的很抱歉。

If you could repeat that, please?

請您重複一遍好嗎？

Sure.

當然。

When you look at revenue growth, if you look at the revenue growth, it was -- when I look at it on a core basis, excluding trade web gain and a $1 billion increase in securities gains, it was about 2% year on full year 2019.

當你看收入成長時，如果你看收入成長，當我從核心基礎來看時，不包括貿易網絡收益和 10 億美元的證券收益成長，全年成長約為 2% 2019 年。

For 2020, when you look at your guidance, Mark, are you expecting more security gains or these gains to continue or any gains from further sales of businesses or portfolios?

對於 2020 年，馬克，當您查看您的指導時，您是否期望獲得更多安全收益或這些收益將持續下去，或者進一步出售業務或投資組合帶來任何收益？

And also, what assumption do you have for rates outside the U.S., Mark?

另外，馬克，您對美國以外的利率有什麼假設？

Sure.

當然。

So there are a couple of questions in there.

所以有幾個問題。

As I think about our forward look and estimate of revenue growth, we are expecting that revenue growth from all of the buckets that I've described.

當我思考我們的前瞻性和對收入成長的估計時，我們預計我所描述的所有類別的收入都會成長。

So core underlying revenue performance is what's going to drive what we see going into 2020.

因此，核心的基礎收入表現將推動我們進入 2020 年。

I'd be careful about looking at 2019, just through the items that you mentioned there.

我會謹慎看待 2019 年，只是透過你在那裡提到的項目。

There are other things that don't necessarily reflect the underlying strength of the franchise.

還有其他一些事情不一定反映特許經營權的潛在實力。

There are some -- so anyway, just be careful about kind of narrowing it to just those 2 things, but the answer to your question is, in fact, that we see good underlying growth in our businesses.

有一些 - 所以無論如何，請小心將其範圍縮小到這兩件事，但事實上，你的問題的答案是，我們看到我們業務的良好潛在增長。

In terms of the forward look on rates.

就利率的前瞻性而言。

I guess, what I'd point you to is if you look at kind of our interest rate exposure that's in our Q and will ultimately be in our K, we often talk about the impact of a 25 basis point move.

我想，我想向你指出的是，如果你看看我們 Q 中的利率風險敞口，最終將在 K 中，我們經常談論 25 個基點變動的影響。

There's an analysis there for both U.S. dollar and non-U.

那裡有針對美元和非美元的分析。

S. dollar.

美元。

And you'll see that the non-U.

你會看到非美國。

S. dollar impact, to get to your question around non-U.

美元的影響，回答你關於非美元的問題。

S. rates, is not a material impact on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

美國利率並沒有對季度產生重大影響。

It's a little bit less than $30 million a quarter for a 25 basis point shift in the non-U.

非美國貨幣匯率每季變動 25 個基點，略低於 3,000 萬美元。

S. dollar rates.

美元匯率。

And obviously, there are a number of different countries that make up that, but it's about -- it's less than $30 million.

顯然，有許多不同的國家組成，但大約 - 不到 3000 萬美元。

Okay.

好的。

And I have a question for Mike.

我有一個問題要問麥克。

Mike, just going back to the equities business.

麥克，我們回到股票業務。

And I recognize it's a relatively small business, but I know you had big hopes for this business with $1 billion increase in revenues a couple of years ago when you were talking about it.

我承認這是一個相對較小的業務，但我知道幾年前當您談論這項業務時，您對這項業務寄予厚望，希望收入增加 10 億美元。

Recently, you've had some head count cuts.

最近，你們進行了一些裁員。

I know you've already put more capital to work in the prime finance business.

我知道您已經將更多資金投入優質金融業務。

So what do you do -- what can you do tangibly now differently to really get that revenue growth going again because full year '19 was -- you're at the low end of where you've been in the last 5 years.

那麼，你現在能做什麼——你現在能採取什麼切實的不同方式來真正讓收入再次增長，因為 19 全年——你正處於過去 5 年的低端。

Yes.

是的。

We -- prior to 2019, and we'll see where the coalition data and other data settles, but it seems like we're coming in somewhere about flat to market wallet, where we had the past several years, taking share.

在 2019 年之前，我們將看到聯盟數據和其他數據的結果，但似乎我們正處於與市場錢包持平的境地，過去幾年我們在這個領域佔據了份額。

So one is we've got to get back on the track of taking share.

因此，我們必須回到奪取份額的軌道上來。

And I think the second piece is that we've got to continue to assess the capacity of our front-end and continue to use technology to drive parts of our lower or low-touch business.

我認為第二點是我們必須繼續評估前端的能力，並繼續使用科技來推動部分低接觸業務。

I think we feel pretty good about the derivative space.

我認為我們對衍生性商品空間感覺很好。

I think we feel good about Delta One.

我認為我們對達美一號感覺良好。

We feel good about prime broker.

我們對主經紀商感覺良好。

We feel good about our Securities Services business.

我們對我們的證券服務業務感覺良好。

And all of those are, obviously, higher returning businesses, i.e., in some cases, less capital.

顯然，所有這些都是回報較高的業務，即在某些情況下資本較少。

And again, I think based on the nature of the clients that we covered, the consolidation of assets, not just in the U.S. but around the world, we think we've got the ability to face off against those, continue to take share, and again, as we pull the business together, to drive returns that have it make sense.

再說一次，我認為根據我們所覆蓋的客戶的性質，資產的整合，不僅在美國，而且在世界各地，我們認為我們有能力對抗這些客戶，繼續搶佔份額，再次，當我們將業務整合在一起時，以推動有意義的回報。

If I may, one quick one, Mark.

如果可以的話，請快一點，馬克。

You went to the high end on CECL day 1 from the 20% to 30%.

在 CECL 第一天，您從 20% 升至 30% 的高端。

Given that the economic environment has held up pretty well.

鑑於經濟環境一直保持良好。

Any color on what brought you towards the high end?

有什麼顏色可以讓您走向高端嗎？

Is it a shift in your card business, which also drove that little increase in charge offs?

是您的信用卡業務發生了變化，從而導致了沖銷額的小幅增長？

Or is there something else?

或是還有別的什麼嗎？

Again, it was just a -- there was no particular change as we work through it.

再說一遍，這只是──在我們解決這個問題的過程中沒有什麼特別的改變。

We obviously developed our model.

顯然我們開發了我們的模型。

There were shifts in balances, but there are a number of different factors that go into that.

平衡發生了變化，但其中有許多不同的因素。

And I think I've been communicating guidance towards the high end, not just on this call, where I talked about the actual number, but on the past couple of calls.

我認為我一直在傳達針對高端的指導，不僅是在這次電話會議上，我在電話會議上談到了實際數字，而且在過去的幾次電話會議上也是如此。

And so no meaningful shift that I'd point to.

所以我沒有指出任何有意義的轉變。

The final question is a follow-up from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

最後一個問題是富國銀行證券公司 Mike Mayo 的後續問題。

I wasn't able to get this in earlier.

我之前沒能把這個放進去。

Just as you look at efficiency, clearly, your guidance implies better efficiency ahead, and it's improved for the last several years.

正如您關注效率一樣，顯然，您的指導意味著未來的效率會更高，並且在過去幾年中有所改善。

But when we slice and dice numbers different ways, doesn't seem to be as efficient as it could be, if you take out cards, for example.

但是，當我們以不同的方式對數字進行切片和切塊時，似乎並沒有那麼有效，例如，如果您拿出卡片。

So where do you -- how much does technology help keep the expenses flat?

那麼，科技在多大程度上有助於維持支出持平呢？

And where do you think efficiency can go in the short term and the long term?

您認為短期和長期效率會如何發展？

And just, I had also asked the prior question about the Google relationship, if I can throw that in, too.

只是，我之前也問過有關Google關係的問題，如果我也可以提出來的話。

So I'll start with Google, and Mark, you can chime in as well.

所以我將從谷歌開始，馬克，你也可以插話。

So we're out with the announcement.

所以我們宣布了這項消息。

Obviously, Q1 to Q2, we're going to be launching some products here in the U.S. with them.

顯然，從第一季到第二季度，我們將與他們一起在美國推出一些產品。

And so we're not out with the exact design of that but more to come in the not-too-distant future.

因此，我們還沒有給出確切的設計，但在不久的將來還會有更多的設計。

Yes.

是的。

And on the operating efficiency, in the earnings deck, we kind of show a chart on Page 18 of just the LTM efficiency ratio.

關於營運效率，在損益表中，我們在第 18 頁上展示了一張僅顯示 LTM 效率比率的圖表。

And there, you'd see we've got this continued downward trend, 56.5% for the year, 89 basis points of improvement.

在那裡，你會看到我們有這種持續下降的趨勢，今年下降了 56.5%，改善了 89 個基點。

What I would say, Mike, is that we've put out a target.

麥克，我想說的是，我們已經設定了目標。

We've put out a target not just on returns but on flat expenses again this year.

今年我們不僅設定了回報目標，也設定了固定支出目標。

We're gearing up for Investor Day.

我們正在為投資者日做準備。

We're going to make sure that we can talk to how we think about the future, but also how we think about technology and the role that it plays now and going forward.

我們將確保我們能夠談論我們如何看待未來，以及我們如何看待科技及其現在和未來所扮演的角色。

We've given you some descriptions on the benefits that accrue to the firm from the investments we've made already.

我們已經向您描述了公司從我們已經進行的投資中獲得的收益。

I think we've demonstrated proof points of those generating productivity savings consistently, and we expect that to continue.

我認為我們已經證明了那些能夠持續節省生產力的證據，並且我們希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

But in terms of much more detail around the technology benefits or around how we think about beyond 2020, I'd ask that you kind of wait for us to get to Investor Day, where we can talk about it in a more holistic way.

但就技術優勢或我們如何看待 2020 年後的更多細節而言，我想請您等我們到投資者日，屆時我們可以更全面地討論它。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing comments.

此時，我想將會議轉回管理層以徵求結束意見。

Thank you all for joining today.

感謝大家今天的加入。

And of course, if you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to reach out to us in Investor Relations.

當然，如果您有任何後續問題，請隨時透過投資者關係與我們聯繫。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的電話會議。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。