花旗銀行 (C) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Citi's Fourth Quarter 2018 Earnings Review. Today, we are joined by Citi's Chief Executive Officer, Mike Corbat; the Chief Financial Officer, John Gerspach; and Citi's incoming CFO, Mark Mason. Today's call will be hosted by Susan Kendall, head of Citi Investor Relations. (Operator Instructions) Also as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

您好，歡迎閱讀花旗 2018 年第四季財報評論。今天，與我們一起出席的有花旗執行長 Mike Corbat、財務長 John Gerspach 和花旗新任財務長 Mark Mason。今天的電話會議將由花旗投資者關係主管蘇珊肯德爾 (Susan Kendall) 主持。（操作員指示）另外提醒一下，今天正在錄製本次會議。如果您有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。

Ms. Kendall, you may begin.

肯德爾女士，你可以開始。

Thank you, Natalia. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. On our call today, our CEO, Mike Corbat, will speak first. Then John Gerspach, our CFO, will take you through the earnings presentation which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com; after which, we'll be happy to take questions.

謝謝你，娜塔莉亞。早安，感謝大家加入我們。在今天的電話會議上，我們的執行長 Mike Corbat 將首先發言。然後，我們的財務長 John Gerspach 將帶您瀏覽收益演示文稿，該演示文稿可在我們的網站 citigroup.com 上下載；之後，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Before we get started, I would like to remind you that today's presentation may contain forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results in capital and other financial condition may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including the precautionary statements referenced in our discussion today and those included in our SEC filings, including without limitation the Risk Factor section of our 2017 Form 10-K.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並受不確定性和情況變化的影響。由於各種因素，資本和其他財務狀況的實際結果可能與這些聲明有重大差異，包括我們今天討論中提到的預防性聲明以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中提到的預防性聲明，包括但不限於我們 2017 年 10-K 表格中的風險因素部分。

With that said, let me turn it over to Mike.

話雖如此，讓我把話題交給麥克。

Thank you, Susan, and good morning, everyone. Excluding the onetime impact of tax reform, we reported earnings of $4.2 billion for the fourth quarter of 2018 or $1.61 per share. Our net income for the year totaled $18 billion or $6.65 per share, a 25% increase from 2017.

謝謝你，蘇珊，大家早安。不計稅制改革的一次性影響，我們報告 2018 年第四季的收益為 42 億美元，即每股 1.61 美元。我們全年淨收入總計 180 億美元，即每股 6.65 美元，比 2017 年成長 25%。

During 2018, we made solid progress towards the 2020 targets as we've committed. Our return on tangible common equity reached 10.9%, exceeding the 10.5% we targeted for the year. And despite the market conditions we experienced throughout the fourth quarter, we still improved our operating efficiency to 57% for the year.

2018年，我們紮實推動2020年目標的達成。我們的有形普通股權益報酬率達到 10.9%，超過了我們今年設定的 10.5% 的目標。儘管第四季我們經歷了市場環境的變化，但我們全年的營運效率仍然提高到了 57%。

In addition, we grew loans and deposits in constant dollars by 4% and 7%, respectively, improved our return on assets to 93 basis points and managed our effective tax rate down to the 23% range, a little better than we had forecast. We had positive operating leverage and our EBIT was up 5% on an underlying basis.

此外，我們以不變美元計算的貸款和存款分別增加了 4% 和 7%，資產回報率提高至 93 個基點，有效稅率降至 23% 左右，略好於我們的預期。我們擁有正的經營槓桿，並且我們的息稅前利潤基本上上漲了 5%。

While the revenue environment was more challenging than we had anticipated, we responded decisively by managing both our expenses and our balance sheet in light of the lower market sensitive revenues. Our expense base declined by 4%, both year-over-year and sequentially this quarter, taking our annual expense base to below $42 billion and we continued to prudently manage risk-weighted assets to optimize our capital needs. While we won't sacrifice the investments, which are key to competing in the future, we also have to ensure that we remain flexible and adapt to whatever market conditions and economic conditions that materialize.

雖然收入環境比我們預期的更具挑戰性，但考慮到市場敏感收入較低，我們透過管理支出和資產負債表做出了果斷反應。本季度，我們的支出基數同比和環比均下降了 4%，使我們的年度支出基數降至 420 億美元以下，我們繼續審慎管理風險加權資產，以優化我們的資本需求。雖然我們不會犧牲對未來競爭至關重要的投資，但我們也必須確保保持彈性，並適應任何出現的市場條件和經濟條件。

Turning to the quarter. In the Institutional Clients Group, our market-sensitive products generally had a challenging quarter, especially in fixed income. We did gain share in M&A, but investment banking was impacted by a decline in equity and debt originations during the quarter.

轉向本季。在機構客戶集團中，我們對市場敏感的產品通常都經歷了一個充滿挑戰的季度，尤其是固定收益產品。我們的市佔率確實在併購業務中有所成長，但本季投資銀行業務受到了股權和債務發放量下降的影響。

Our accrual businesses, which consist of Treasury and Trade Solutions, securities services, the Private Bank and Corporate Lending, continued their very strong performance, up 11% for the full year in constant dollars. And as a matter of fact, we've now had 5 straight years of consecutive growth in TTS and are confident that we can continue with that momentum.

我們的應計業務包括財政與貿易解決方案、證券服務、私人銀行和企業貸款，持續保持強勁表現，以不變美元計算全年增長 11%。事實上，我們的 TTS 已經連續 5 年實現成長，我們有信心保持這一勢頭。

In Global Consumer Banking, in the U.S., we saw 4% underlying growth in branded cards and 6% revenue growth in retail services this quarter, and retail banking grew 5% ex mortgages. Internationally, we saw good growth in Mexico, especially in the cards products, while Asia was impacted by lower revenues from investment products.

在美國全球消費者銀行業務中，本季品牌卡基本成長 4%，零售服務收入成長 6%，零售銀行業務（不含抵押貸款）成長 5%。在國際上，我們看到墨西哥實現了良好的成長，尤其是卡片產品，而亞洲則受到投資產品收入下降的影響。

During the year, we returned $18.4 billion in capital to our shareholders, buybacks of common stock reduced the shares outstanding by over 200 million shares from a year ago or 8% and our tangible book value per share increased by 6%. We finished the year with a common equity tier 1 ratio of 11.9%, up from 11.7% in the third quarter as risk-weighted assets declined. We'll be making our CCAR submission in the spring and believe we've got that capacity to reach our 3-year capital return target of $60 billion.

在這一年中，我們向股東返還了 184 億美元的資本，普通股回購使流通股數比去年同期減少了 2 億多股，降幅為 8%，而每股有形帳面價值則增加了 6%。由於風險加權資產的下降，我們今年的普通股一級資本適足率為 11.9%，高於第三季的 11.7%。我們將在春季提交 CCAR，並相信我們有能力實現 3 年 600 億美元的資本回報目標。

As 2019 begins, we find ourselves operating in a more uncertain macro environment. From what we see, economic growth is stronger and more resilient than recent market volatility would indicate. That said, we're prepared to make adjustments if we get the sense economic conditions are changing. We remain committed to our 2020 financial targets. And this year, we've targeted increasing our return on tangible common equity to 12% and further improving our efficiency ratio.

隨著2019年的到來，我們發現自己處在一個更不確定的宏觀環境中。從我們所看到的來看，經濟成長比近期市場波動所顯示的更加強勁、更具彈性。也就是說，如果我們感覺到經濟狀況正在改變，我們準備好做出調整。我們仍然致力於實現 2020 年的財務目標。今年，我們的目標是將有形普通股權益回報率提高到 12%，並進一步提高我們的效率比率。

We continue to utilize technology to improve the client experience and lower our cost to serve, whether it's by automating processes or enhancing our mobile channels, and we'll continue to roll out new digital capabilities throughout the year. As I mentioned before, we have levers we can pull if revenues come in lower, but we're very cognizant of the need to invest for the long term so that we can serve our clients with distinction.

我們將繼續利用技術來改善客戶體驗並降低服務成本，無論是透過自動化流程還是增強我們的行動管道，我們都將全年繼續推出新的數位功能。正如我之前提到的，如果收入下降，我們可以採取一些措施，但我們非常清楚需要長期投資，這樣我們才能為客戶提供卓越的服務。

One thing before we go to Q&A. I want to take a minute on the occasion of his final earnings call to thank John for his 28 years of service to the firm and to congratulate him on his retirement. I know those on the phone respect him for his candor and honesty, and we'll miss him. He leaves things in good hands with Mark Mason, and I know everybody's going to enjoy working with Mark.

在我們進入問答環節之前，有一件事。我想藉他最後一次財報電話會議的機會，花一點時間感謝約翰為公司 28 年的服務，並祝賀他退休。我知道電話裡的人都尊重他的坦率和誠實，我們會想念他的。他把事情交給馬克梅森妥善處理，我知道每個人都會喜歡和馬克一起工作。

With that, John will go through our presentation, and then we'd be happy to answer your questions. John?

接下來，約翰將介紹我們的演示，然後我們很樂意回答您的問題。約翰？

Thank you very much, Mike. Good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 3. First, let me note that all comparisons throughout this presentation exclude the onetime impact of tax reform in the fourth quarter of 2017 as well as a subsequent adjustment in the fourth quarter of 2018.

非常感謝，麥克。大家早安。從投影片 3 開始。首先，我要指出的是，本簡報中的所有比較均不包括 2017 年第四季稅制改革的一次性影響以及 2018 年第四季的後續調整。

As previously disclosed, we recorded a noncash charge of $22.6 billion related to tax reform in the fourth quarter of 2017. At that time, we noted that the final impact of tax reform could differ from the provisional estimate based on the finalization of our own analysis as well as additional guidance to be received from the U.S. Treasury Department. In the recent quarter, we finalized our analysis and adjusted the provisional charge, resulting in a benefit to income taxes of nearly $100 million or $0.03 per share. Excluding this benefit, we earned $1.61 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018.

如前所述，我們在 2017 年第四季記錄了與稅務改革相關的 226 億美元的非現金費用。當時，我們注意到，稅制改革的最終影響可能與基於我們自己分析的最終結果以及美國財政部提供的額外指導的臨時估計不同。在最近一個季度，我們完成了分析並調整了暫定費用，帶來近 1 億美元或每股 0.03 美元的所得稅收益。不計此項收益，我們 2018 年第四季每股收益為 1.61 美元。

Now looking at our results on this basis, net income of $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter grew 14% from last year driven by a reduction on expenses, lower cost of credit and a lower effective tax rate, and EPS grew 26% including the impact of an 8% reduction in average diluted shares outstanding. Revenues of $17.1 billion declined 2% from the prior year, primarily reflecting lower Fixed Income Markets revenues as well as of the wind down of legacy assets in Corporate/Other.

現在以此為基礎來看我們的業績，第四季淨收入 42 億美元，較去年同期成長 14%，這得益於費用減少、信貸成本降低和有效稅率降低；每股收益增長 26%，其中包括平均攤薄流通股減少 8% 的影響。營收為 171 億美元，較上年下降 2%，主要反映固定收益市場收入下降以及企業/其他領域遺留資產的減少。

Expenses declined by 4% or over $400 million year-over-year, resulting in our ninth consecutive quarter of positive operating leverage, and cost of credit was down 7% versus last year. Our effective tax rate was 21% for the quarter, reflecting an adjustment to our full year estimate of income taxes under the new tax regime as well as other resulting actions we have taken. This results in an effective tax rate of just over 23% for full year 2018, which we believe to be an appropriate tax rate as we look into 2019. In constant dollars, Citigroup end-of-period loans grew 4% year-over-year to $684 billion and deposits grew 7% to $1 trillion.

費用年減 4% 或超過 4 億美元，導致我們連續第九個季度實現正營運槓桿，信貸成本較去年同期下降 7%。本季我們的有效稅率為 21%，這反映了我們對新稅制下全年所得稅估計的調整以及我們採取的其他相應措施。這使得 2018 年全年的有效稅率略高於 23%，我們認為，對於 2019 年而言，這是一個合適的稅率。以不變美元計算，花旗集團期末貸款年增 4% 至 6,840 億美元，存款成長 7% 至 1 兆美元。

Now looking at full year results on Slide 4. We made steady progress in 2018, although revenue growth remained somewhat below our medium-term outlook. As a reminder, in 2017, we recorded a onetime gain of roughly $580 million on the sale of a fixed income analytics business in ICG. And in 2018, we had a gain of roughly $250 million on the sale of our Mexico asset management business in consumer.

現在就來看看投影片 4 上的全年業績。儘管營收成長仍略低於我們的中期預期，但我們在 2018 年取得了穩步進展。提醒一下，2017 年，我們透過出售 ICG 的固定收益分析業務獲得了約 5.8 億美元的一次性收益。2018 年，我們出售墨西哥消費資產管理業務，獲利約 2.5 億美元。

Excluding these items, consumer revenues grew 3% in constant dollars, slightly below our medium-term goal. This is primarily driven by the near-term impact of weaker market sentiment on our Asia wealth management revenues; the impact of partnership terms that came into effect in 2018 in U.S. branded cards, which we have now lapped as we go into 2019; and finally, in U.S. retail, a drag from lower U.S. mortgage revenues, which should abate going forward as well as rising deposit sensitivity.

除去這些項目，消費者收入以不變美元計算成長了 3%，略低於我們的中期目標。這主要是由於市場情緒走弱對我們亞洲財富管理收入的短期影響；2018 年美國品牌卡合作條款生效的影響，我們在進入 2019 年時已經克服了這些影響；最後，在美國零售業，美國抵押貸款收入下降拖累了我們的業績，但未來這種影響應該會減弱，同時存款敏感性也會上升。

Institutional revenues also grew 3% as strength in our accrual businesses in Treasury and Trade Solutions, Securities Services, Corporate Lending and the Private Bank was partially offset by weakness in Fixed Income as well as softness in equity and debt underwriting. These results largely reflect the macro uncertainties seen in the fourth quarter, which created a challenging trading environment as well as an industry-wide slowdown in underwriting activity.

機構收入也增加了 3%，因為我們在財政和貿易解決方案、證券服務、企業貸款和私人銀行方面的應計業務的強勁表現被固定收益的疲軟以及股票和債務承銷的疲軟所部分抵消。這些結果很大程度上反映了第四季度宏觀不確定性，這造成了充滿挑戰的交易環境以及全行業承保活動的放緩。

Despite these headwinds, we made continued progress on our efficiency goals, driving our full year efficiency ratio to 57%. Credit quality remain broadly stable across the franchise, and underlying pretax earnings grew 5%. EPS grew by 25%, including the benefit of share buybacks as well as the lower effective tax rate. And our full year RoTCE is just under 11%, well above our target for 2018, which positions us well relative to our 12% goal for 2019.

儘管面臨這些不利因素，我們仍在實現效率目標方面不斷取得進展，將全年效率比率提高到 57%。整個特許經營業務的信貸品質基本上保持穩定，基礎稅前收益增加了 5%。每股盈餘成長了 25%，其中包括股票回購的好處以及較低的有效稅率。我們全年的 RoTCE 略低於 11%，遠高於 2018 年的目標，相對於 2019 年 12% 的目標，我們處於有利地位。

Turning now to each business. Slide 5 shows the results for North America consumer in more detail. In total, revenues of $5.3 billion grew 1% in the fourth quarter. Retail banking revenues of $1.3 billion declined 1% year-over-year. Mortgage revenues continued to decline, mostly reflecting lower origination activity and higher funding costs. Excluding mortgage, retail banking revenues grew 5% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, slightly better growth than we saw in the third quarter as deposit spreads stabilized in our commercial portfolio and we faced fewer headwinds from episodic transaction activity.

現在轉向每個業務。幻燈片 5 更詳細地展示了北美消費者的結果。總體而言，第四季營收為 53 億美元，成長 1%。零售銀行收入為 13 億美元，年減 1%。抵押貸款收入持續下降，主要反映出發放活動減少和融資成本上升。除抵押貸款外，第四季度零售銀行收入年增 5%，由於商業投資組合中的存款利差趨於穩定，且我們面臨的偶發交易活動阻力較小，因此增幅略好於第三季。

Average deposits declined 1% year-over-year, primarily driven by the transfer of deposits into investments. Assets under management were flat year-over-year as 5% underlying growth was offset by the impact of market movements given the equity market selloff at year-end. Excluding market movements, total deposits and assets under management grew 1% with improving momentum. If you look at 2018 versus 2017, we more than doubled our net new money inflows across consumer deposits and investments this year, and we retained a larger dollar amount of those deposits that transferred into investments.

平均存款較去年同期下降 1%，主要原因是存款轉為投資。由於年底股市拋售導致市場波動的影響抵消了 5% 的潛在成長，因此管理資產比去年同期持平。排除市場波動因素，總存款及管理資產成長 1%，動能良好。如果將 2018 年與 2017 年進行比較，就會發現今年我們的消費者存款和投資淨新資金流入增加了一倍以上，並且我們保留了更大額度的轉入投資的存款。

Turning to branded cards. Revenues were roughly flat versus the prior year, including the impact of the sale of the Hilton portfolio as well as partnership terms that went into effect in 2018. Excluding Hilton, revenues grew 2% year-over-year, including 7% growth in net interest revenue, reflecting loan growth and spread improvement versus the prior year. Average loans grew 3% versus last year, including 9% growth in interest-earning balances, as recent vintages continued to mature and we saw strong balance retention across our portfolio. This growth in

轉向品牌卡。收入與上年基本持平，其中包括出售希爾頓資產組合以及 2018 年生效的合作條款的影響。不計希爾頓，營收年增 2%，其中淨利息收入成長 7%，反映出貸款成長和利差改善較上年有所改善。平均貸款較去年同期增加 3%，其中計息餘額增加 9%，因為近期貸款持續到期，而且我們的投資組合中的餘額保留率很高。這種增長

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

percentage improved by over 30 basis points to nearly 880 basis points, a little better than we had anticipated for the fourth quarter. We're now approaching a more optimal mix of interest-earning and noninterest-earning balances.

百分比提高了 30 多個基點，達到近 880 個基點，略優於我們對第四季的預期。我們現在正在接近實現利息收入和非利息收入餘額的更優化組合。

As such, we expect to remain broadly around this level of spreads going forward, although we will see quarterly fluctuations and actual performance will depend on a number of factors, including our acquisition mix, the rate environment and our balance between proprietary and co-brand portfolios over time. This should fuel strong underlying revenue growth in 2019 and beyond as we've now lapped the impact of partnership renewals on our fee income and we're growing loan volumes at more attractive spreads. We continue to expect reported growth in total revenues in 2019, even considering the Hilton and vis-a-vis gains we took in 2018.

因此，我們預計未來利差將大致保持在這一水平，儘管我們將看到季度波動，實際業績將取決於許多因素，包括我們的收購組合、利率環境以及我們自營和聯合品牌投資組合之間的平衡。這應該會推動 2019 年及以後強勁的潛在收入成長，因為我們現在已經克服了合作夥伴關係續約對我們的費用收入的影響，並且我們正在以更具吸引力的利差增加貸款量。即使考慮到希爾頓和我們在 2018 年獲得的收益，我們仍然預計 2019 年的總收入仍將成長。

Finally, retail services revenues of $1.7 billion grew 6% driven by organic loan growth as well as the benefit of the acquisition of the L.L. Bean card portfolio. Total expenses for North America consumer were up 3%, primarily reflecting investments.

最後，零售服務收入達到 17 億美元，成長 6%，這得益於有機貸款成長以及收購 L.L. Bean 卡組合帶來的好處。北美消費者的總支出成長了 3%，主要反映了投資。

Turning to credit. Total credit costs were up 2% year-over-year, reflecting loan growth and portfolio seasoning in both branded cards and retail services. Our NCL rate in U.S. branded cards was 297 basis points for full year 2018, exactly in line with our 3% outlook. And in retail services, our NCL rate was 488 basis points for the full year which is, again, consistent with our 5% outlook in that segment.

轉向信用。總信貸成本年增 2%，反映了貸款成長以及品牌卡和零售服務的投資組合完善。2018 年全年，我們美國品牌信用卡的 NCL 利率為 297 個基點，與我們 3% 的預期完全一致。在零售服務領域，我們全年的 NCL 率為 488 個基點，這與我們對該領域 5% 的預期一致。

On Slide 6, we show results for International Consumer Banking in constant dollars. Fourth quarter revenues of $3.2 billion grew 1% driven by Latin America. In Latin America, total consumer revenues grew 5% or 7% excluding the ongoing impact of the sale of our asset management business in the third quarter. Card revenues grew 8% on continued strength in purchase sales and loan growth, while retail banking revenues grew 6%, excluding the impact of the asset management sale. Retail loan growth was muted in Mexico this quarter driven by an episodic pay down in our commercial portfolio, while we continue to generate solid growth in deposits.

在投影片 6 中，我們展示了以不變美元計算的國際消費者銀行業務的結果。第四季營收為 32 億美元，受拉丁美洲的推動成長了 1%。在拉丁美洲，不包括第三季出售資產管理業務的持續影響，總消費者收入成長了 5% 或 7%。由於購買銷售和貸款成長持續強勁，信用卡收入成長了 8%，而零售銀行收入成長了 6%（不包括資產管理銷售的影響）。本季度，墨西哥的零售貸款成長放緩，原因是我們的商業投資組合出現間歇性下降，而我們的存款則持續保持穩健成長。

Turning to Asia. Consumer revenues grew 1% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, excluding the impact of a modest gain on the sale of a merchant-acquiring business in the prior year. Excluding the gain, card revenues grew 3% year-over-year on continued growth in loans and purchase sales. And retail banking revenues declined 1%, reflecting the lower investment revenues. While investment revenues remain under pressure, we continue to see positive inflows into assets under management as well as 8% growth in Citigold clients. And excluding investment revenues, our underlying Asia consumer growth remains broadly in line with our medium-term expectations driven by growth in loans and deposits.

轉向亞洲。第四季消費者營收年增 1%，不包括上年商家收單業務出售的小幅收益的影響。除此之外，由於貸款和購買銷售額的持續成長，信用卡收入年增 3%。零售銀行收入下降了 1%，反映出投資收入的下降。儘管投資收入仍然面臨壓力，但我們繼續看到管理資產的正流入以及花旗黃金客戶數量的 8% 成長。除投資收入外，受貸款和存款成長的推動，我們的亞洲消費成長基本上符合我們的中期預期。

Total average loan growth of 3% in Asia includes the impact of our continued repositioning away from lower-return mortgage assets. Excluding mortgages, loans grew 5% year-over-year. In total, operating expenses were up 1% in the fourth quarter as investment spending and volume-driven growth were largely offset by efficiency savings, and cost of credit declined 1% reflecting a modest reserve release in Latin America this quarter.

亞洲整體平均貸款成長率為 3%，其中包括我們持續剝離低迴報抵押貸款資產的影響。除抵押貸款外，貸款年增5%。總體而言，第四季度營運費用上漲了 1%，因為投資支出和數量驅動的成長在很大程度上被效率節約所抵消，而信貸成本下降了 1%，反映了本季度拉丁美洲適度的儲備釋放。

Slide 7 shows our global consumer credit trends in more detail. Credit remained broadly favorable again this quarter across regions. In North America, the sequential uptick in delinquencies is consistent with the seasonal trend we've seen in other years from the third to the fourth quarter driven by cards. This typically translates then into higher NCL rates in the first half relative to the second half of the year.

幻燈片 7 更詳細地展示了我們的全球消費信貸趨勢。本季各地區信貸狀況普遍維持良好。在北美，拖欠率的連續上升與我們在其他年份第三季至第四季看到的由信用卡推動的季節性趨勢一致。這通常意味著上半年的 NCL 率將高於下半年。

Turning now to the Institutional Clients Group on Slide 8. Revenues of $8.2 billion were down 1% in the fourth quarter as strength in our accrual businesses as well as revenue growth in M&A and equity markets were more than offset by weakness in fixed income. Total banking revenues of $5 billion grew 5%. Treasury and Trade Solutions revenues of $2.4 billion were up 7% as reported and 11% in constant dollars, reflecting continued growth in transaction volumes and deposits as well as improved spreads. Investment banking revenues of $1.3 billion were down 1% from last year, as strong M&A performance was more than offset by a decline in underwriting, reflecting lower market activity. Private Bank revenues of $797 million grew 3% year-over-year driven by growth in loans and investments as well as improved deposit spreads. And Corporate Lending revenues of $559 million were up 9%, reflecting loan growth along with lower hedging costs.

現在轉到投影片 8 上的機構客戶群組。第四季營收 82 億美元，下降 1%，因為我們應計業務的強勁表現以及併購和股票市場的收入成長被固定收益的疲軟所抵消。銀行總收入達 50 億美元，成長 5%。財政與貿易解決方案收入為 24 億美元，報告顯示成長 7%，以固定美元計算成長 11%，反映出交易量和存款的持續成長以及利差的改善。投資銀行收入為 13 億美元，較去年下降 1%，因為強勁的併購業績被承銷業務的下降所抵消，反映出市場活動減少。私人銀行收入 7.97 億美元，年增 3%，主要得益於貸款和投資的成長以及存款利差的改善。企業貸款收入 5.59 億美元，成長 9%，反映貸款成長以及對沖成本降低。

Total Markets & Securities Services revenues of $3.1 billion declined 11% in the fourth quarter. Fixed Income revenues of $1.9 billion declined 21% year-over-year due to a challenging trading environment during the quarter. At the Goldman conference in early December, I noted that while clients remained engaged, we did not see the level of transaction activity we had originally expected this quarter, in G10 rates in particular, as clients have largely stayed on the sidelines in an uncertain macro environment.

第四季市場與證券服務總收入為 31 億美元，下降 11%。由於本季交易環境嚴峻，固定收益收入為 19 億美元，年減 21%。在 12 月初的高盛會議上，我指出，儘管客戶仍然參與其中，但本季度我們並沒有看到最初預期的交易活動水平，尤其是 G10 利率，因為在不確定的宏觀環境下，客戶基本上保持觀望態度。

Thereafter, the environment continued to deteriorate, characterized by volatile market conditions and widening credit spreads. This resulted in a risk-off sentiment where market-making became even more challenging in December across both rates and currencies and spread products.

此後，環境持續惡化，市場狀況動盪，信貸利差擴大。這導致了避險情緒的出現，12 月利率、貨幣和價差產品的做市變得更加困難。

Equities revenues were up 18% mainly reflecting the impact of an episodic loss in the prior year. On an underlying basis, revenues were down slightly as strong client activity, particularly in derivatives, was offset by a challenging trading environment and lower client financing balances.

股票收入成長了 18%，主要反映了上一年偶發性虧損的影響。從根本上講，由於強勁的客戶活動（尤其是衍生性商品活動）被充滿挑戰的交易環境和較低的客戶融資餘額所抵消，收入略有下降。

And finally, in Securities Services, revenues were up 7% as reported and 12% in constant dollars, driven by continued growth in client volumes and higher interest revenue. Total operating expenses of $4.8 billion declined 2% year-over-year on lower compensation costs associated with lower revenues. And finally, cost of credit was $129 million this quarter, reflecting a normalization in credit trends in our corporate loan portfolio.

最後，證券服務業務收入報告成長 7%，以固定美元計算成長 12%，這得益於客戶數量持續成長和利息收入增加。總營運費用為 48 億美元，年減 2%，原因是收入下降導致薪酬成本降低。最後，本季信貸成本為 1.29 億美元，反映出我們企業貸款組合信貸趨勢正常化。

Looking at the full year, excluding the previously mentioned gain of roughly $580 million in 2017, both revenues and expenses grew by 3% in 2018. We generated over half of our revenues in banking, which grew 5% on continued momentum in TTS, the Private Bank and Corporate Lending. Securities Services grew 11% as we continued to deepen client relationships while also benefiting from the higher rate environment. And in equities, we made solid progress with revenues up 19% for the full year. The combined strong performance in these businesses help to offset weakness in Investment Banking and Fixed Income, down 7% and 6%, respectfully (sic) [respectively], on a full year basis.

綜觀全年，除去前面提到的2017年約5.8億美元的收益，2018年的收入和支出均成長了3%。我們一半以上的收入來自銀行業務，由於 TTS、私人銀行和企業貸款業務的持續成長，銀行業務收入成長了 5%。由於我們繼續深化客戶關係，同時受益於更高的利率環境，證券服務增加了 11%。在股票方面，我們取得了穩定進展，全年營收成長了 19%。這些業務的強勁表現有助於抵銷投資銀行和固定收益業務的疲軟，全年分別下降 7% 和 6%。

But even within these businesses, there are still some standouts. In Investment Banking, we showed continued progress in M&A with revenues up 16%. And in Fixed Income, if you look at our total G10 FX and local markets rates and currencies business, revenues were far more stable at roughly flat to last year as we benefited from steady corporate flow activity across our global network. Cost of credit was higher than the prior year given lower reserve releases, but credit quality remains solid with roughly 5 basis points of losses for the year.

但即使在這些企業中，仍然有一些佼佼者。在投資銀行業務方面，我們在併購方面持續取得進展，營收成長了 16%。在固定收益方面，如果您看一下我們的 G10 外匯和本地市場利率及貨幣業務，您會發現收入更加穩定，與去年基本持平，這得益於我們全球網絡中穩定的企業流動活動。由於準備金釋放減少，信貸成本高於上年，但信貸品質依然穩健，全年損失約 5 個基點。

Slide 9 shows the results for Corporate/Other. Revenues of $470 million declined 37% from last year driven primarily by the wind down of legacy assets. Expenses were down 45%, also reflecting the wind down as well as lower infrastructure costs. And pretax income was $44 million this quarter, better than our outlook, reflecting episodic gains in our investment portfolio as well as lower total expenses relative to our prior expectations. Looking ahead, we would still expect a modest pretax quarterly loss in Corporate/Other in 2019.

幻燈片 9 顯示了「企業/其他」的結果。營收為 4.7 億美元，較去年同期下降 37%，主要原因是遺留資產的減少。支出下降了 45%，這也反映了風力發電和基礎設施成本的降低。本季稅前收入為 4,400 萬美元，優於我們的預期，反映了我們投資組合的偶發收益以及相對於我們先前預期的較低總支出。展望未來，我們仍預期 2019 年企業/其他業務的稅前季度虧損將較小。

Slide 10 shows our net interest revenue and margin trends. As you can see, total net interest revenue of $11.9 billion this quarter were roughly 8% for the last year in constant dollars, as growth in core accrual net interest revenue was partially offset by lower trading-related net interest revenue as well as the continued wind down of legacy assets in Corporate/Other. Core accrual net interest revenue grew by $1.4 billion year-over-year, well above our prior expectations driven by the FDIC surcharge benefit, improved spreads in our U.S. branded cards business and balance sheet optimization as we deployed more cash into better yielding assets.

幻燈片 10 顯示了我們的淨利息收入和利潤率趨勢。如您所見，本季總淨利息收入為 119 億美元，以不變美元計算，比去年同期增長約 8%，因為核心應計淨利息收入的增長被交易相關淨利息收入的下降以及企業/其他部門遺留資產的持續縮減部分抵消。核心應計淨利息收入年增 14 億美元，遠高於我們先前的預期，這得益於 FDIC 附加費優惠、美國品牌卡業務利差改善以及資產負債表優化，因為我們將更多現金投入到收益更高的資產中。

On a sequential basis, our core accrual net interest margin improved by 12 basis points to 372 basis points, including 4 basis points from the FDIC surcharge benefit. The remaining 8 basis points reflect momentum we've seen building over the second half of the year given higher interest rates, continued loan growth and an improved loan mix. As we noted last quarter, even though core accrual net interest revenues grew sequentially from the second to the third quarter of 2018, our net interest margin remained flat at 360 basis points as the benefits of higher rates and loan growth were offset by higher average cash balances during the quarter. As we deployed that liquidity into better yielding assets, you can now see that underlying revenue improvement pulled through in the net interest margin.

以環比計算，我們的核心應計淨利差提高了 12 個基點，達到 372 個基點，其中包括來自 FDIC 附加費優惠的 4 個基點。剩下的 8 個基點反映了我們看到的下半年的勢頭，因為利率上升、貸款持續增長以及貸款結構改善。正如我們上個季度所指出的，儘管核心應計淨利息收入從 2018 年第二季度到第三季度連續增長，但我們的淨息差仍然保持在 360 個基點的水平，因為本季度較高的利率和貸款增長帶來的好處被較高的平均現金餘額所抵消。當我們將流動性部署到收益較高的資產時，您現在可以看到基礎收入的改善體現在淨利差上。

On a full year basis, core accrual revenue grew by more than $4 billion over 2017, ahead of our outlook of $3.7 billion for the year with about $1 billion coming from the benefit of higher interest rates. As we had expected, this was partially offset by a nearly $500 million decline in the net interest revenue generated in the legacy wind down portfolio in Corporate/Other. And trading-related net interest revenue declined by nearly $1.7 billion year-over-year, similar to the year-over-year decline seen in 2017. So if you look at our total net interest revenue for the full year 2018, we grew by about $2 billion year-over-year in constant dollars.

從全年來看，核心應計營收比 2017 年成長了 40 多億美元，高於我們預期的 37 億美元，其中約 10 億美元來自利率上升的好處。正如我們預期的那樣，這部分被企業/其他遺留清盤投資組合產生的淨利息收入下降近 5 億美元所抵消。與交易相關的淨利息收入年減近 17 億美元，與 2017 年的年減幅相似。因此，如果你看一下我們 2018 年全年的總淨利息收入，以不變美元計算，我們比去年同期成長了約 20 億美元。

As we look at net interest revenue for 2019, now we're unlikely to get the same magnitude of benefit from rate hikes this year. However, a slowing rate trajectory should also translate into a smaller drag from trading-related net interest revenue from 2018 to 2019. You should also see a smaller drag from the wind down of legacy assets. And then, of course, we will benefit from the absence of the FDIC surcharge, which is about a $400 million benefit year-over-year. So on a net basis, we expect to generate as much or even more than the $2 billion of growth in net interest revenue that we saw in 2018, even if we see less incremental benefit from rate hikes.

當我們回顧 2019 年的淨利息收入時，我們發現今年我們不太可能從升息中獲得同樣幅度的收益。不過，利率軌跡放緩也意味著 2018 年至 2019 年交易相關淨利息收入的拖累作用會減少。您還應該看到遺留資產減少帶來的拖累較小。當然，我們將受益於取消聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 附加費，這比去年同期的收益約為 4 億美元。因此，從淨額來看，即使升息帶來的增量收益減少，我們預期淨利息收入的成長幅度仍將與 2018 年的 20 億美元持平，甚至超過 20 億美元。

Of course, in 2018, this growth in net interest revenue was partially offset by a roughly $1 billion decline in noninterest revenues driven by a drag from partnership renewal terms and lower mortgage revenues in consumer, the wind down of legacy assets, the impact of gains we took in 2017 on hedging activity in corporate treasury and the net impact of previously mentioned onetime gain on asset sales. We do not expect noninterest revenues to decline again in 2019 as we've now lapped the operating revenue headwinds in consumer and we expect less pressure from the wind down of legacy assets.

當然，2018 年淨利息收入的增長被非利息收入約 10 億美元的下降部分抵消，非利息收入的下降是由於合作夥伴續約條款的拖累和消費者抵押貸款收入的下降、遺留資產的減少、2017 年獲得的收益對企業財務對沖活動的影響以及前面提到的一次性收益對資產出售的淨影響。我們預計非利息收入不會在 2019 年再次下降，因為我們現在已經克服了消費者業務的營業收入逆風，並且我們預計遺留資產減少帶來的壓力會減少。

On Slide 11, we show our key capital metrics. In the fourth quarter, our tangible book value per share increased 6% year-over-year to $63.79 driven by the lower share count and our CET1 capital ratio improved to 11.9% driven by a reduction in risk-weighted assets as we continued to prudently manage the balance sheet. Our total CET1 capital declined modestly during the quarter as net income and DTA utilization were more than offset by $5.8 billion of total share buybacks and dividends. For the full year, we returned over $18 billion of capital to common shareholders for a payout of 110% of net income to common. And based on our 2018 CCAR capital plan, we expect to return an additional $9.8 billion of capital in the first half of 2019.

在投影片 11 上，我們展示了我們的關鍵資本指標。第四季度，由於股份數量減少，我們的每股有形帳面價值年增 6% 至 63.79 美元，而由於我們繼續審慎管理資產負債表，風險加權資產減少，我們的 CET1 資本比率提高至 11.9%。本季度，我們的 CET1 資本總額略有下降，因為淨收入和 DTA 利用率被 58 億美元的股票回購和股利總額所抵銷。全年我們向普通股股東返還了超過 180 億美元的資本，普通股股東分紅率為淨收入的 110%。根據我們 2018 年 CCAR 資本計劃，我們預計 2019 年上半年將額外返還 98 億美元的資本。

In summary, we made continued progress in 2018. And while the revenue environment proved more challenging than we had anticipated, especially in the fourth quarter, we delivered on several key objectives: We improved our RoTCE by nearly 300 basis points, achieving a full year RoTCE of 10.9% and exceeding our goal of 10.5% for the year. We delivered nearly 100 basis points of improvement in our efficiency ratio while continuing to invest in our future. We maintained our credit discipline, growing our loan portfolio while maintaining loss rates that were well within our medium-term expectations across every business and region. We achieved the benefit to our ongoing effective tax rate under the new tax regime that exceeded our initial estimates. And we delivered on our capital optimization goals, returning over $18 billion of capital through share buybacks and dividends during the year.

總而言之，我們在 2018 年取得了持續進步。儘管事實證明收入環境比我們預期的更具挑戰性，尤其是在第四季度，但我們實現了幾個關鍵目標：我們將 RoTCE 提高了近 300 個基點，全年 RoTCE 達到 10.9%，超過了我們全年 10.5% 的目標。我們在繼續投資未來的同時，實現了效率比率的近 100 個基點的提高。我們保持信貸紀律，增加貸款組合，同時將每個業務和地區的損失率保持在我們中期預期範圍內。我們在新稅制下獲得的持續有效稅率收益超出了我們最初的估計。我們實現了資本優化目標，全年透過股票回購和股利返還了超過 180 億美元的資本。

We recognize that the bar gets even higher as we go into 2019. We also recognize that we're in an uncertain macro environment where the market is beginning to discount future growth and this may create a more volatile operating environment as we saw in the fourth quarter, but we're continuing to manage the franchise responsibly and we're committed to steady, sustainable improvement in both our efficiency and returns.

我們認識到，進入 2019 年，標準會更高。我們也意識到，我們正處於一個不確定的宏觀環境中，市場開始低估未來的成長，這可能會造成一個更加動盪的經營環境，正如我們在第四季度看到的那樣，但我們將繼續負責任地管理特許經營權，並致力於穩步、可持續地提高我們的效率和回報。

If you look at our performance in 2018, several businesses performed well with good visibility into 2019. The largest of these is our Treasury and Trade Solutions franchise, which generated over $9 billion of revenues and posted its fifth consecutive year of growth in constant dollars. Our other accrual businesses in ITG across Securities Services, Corporate Lending and the Private Bank generated another $8 billion of revenues with good line of sight into 2019.

如果你回顧我們 2018 年的業績，你會發現有幾項業務表現良好，並且 2019 年的前景看好。其中最大的是我們的財政和貿易解決方案特許經營權，該特許經營權創造了超過 90 億美元的收入，並連續第五年實現不變美元增長。我們的 ITG 中的其他應計業務（涵蓋證券服務、企業貸款和私人銀行）又創造了 80 億美元的收入，並且預計在 2019 年取得良好的業績。

Our Mexico consumer franchise with nearly $6 billion of revenues continued to grow with a favorable market backdrop, including record low unemployment and strong consumer confidence. And while our U.S. branded cards franchise generated only 1% growth for the full year, we saw 3% underlying growth in that franchise in 2018 with momentum as we exited the fourth quarter. That's a business with nearly $9 billion of annual revenues, where we are now realizing the benefits of our investments over the past 3 years. We also made significant progress in bringing our U.S. consumer business together for a more powerful client-centric franchise as we go forward. And we took on new portfolios like the L.L. Bean card acquisition to augment our organic growth. Of course, it's more difficult to predict the operating environment in areas like trading and investment banking, but we continued to show good progress in M&A and equity this year, and our global FX business proved to be resilient in a challenging market.

我們的墨西哥消費者特許經營業務收入近 60 億美元，在創紀錄的低失業率和強勁的消費者信心等有利的市場背景下繼續增長。雖然我們的美國品牌卡特許經營權全年僅實現了 1% 的增長，但隨著第四季度的結束，我們看到該特許經營權在 2018 年實現了 3% 的潛在增長，並且勢頭強勁。這是一項年收入近 90 億美元的業務，我們過去 3 年在該業務上的投資現在已開始獲得回報。我們在整合美國消費者業務方面也取得了重大進展，以便在未來打造更強大的以客戶為中心的特許經營業務。我們也收購了 L.L. Bean 卡等新的投資組合，以增強我們的有機成長。當然，預測交易和投資銀行等領域的經營環境更加困難，但今年我們在併購和股權方面繼續取得良好進展，我們的全球外匯業務在充滿挑戰的市場中表現出了韌性。

As we look to 2019, we're preparing for a range of operating environments with the focus on achieving our RoTCE target of 12% this year in a responsible, sustainable way. From a revenue perspective, in addition to the good momentum we're seeing in many of our businesses, we also have other revenue tailwinds, including the absence of the FDIC surcharge as well as a smaller expected drag from the wind down of legacy assets in Corp/Other.

展望 2019 年，我們正在為一系列營運環境做準備，重點是以負責任、永續的方式實現今年 12% 的 RoTCE 目標。從收入角度來看，除了我們在許多業務中看到的良好勢頭之外，我們還有其他收入順風，包括沒有聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 附加費，以及公司/其他部門遺留資產減少預計帶來的拖累較小。

In 2018, we absorbed over $1 billion of total revenue drag from legacy assets, which depressed top line growth by about 1%, and it should drop to about half that amount in 2019. In addition, on the expense side, we're now beginning to see efficiency saving meaningfully outpace the incremental investments we continue to make in the franchise.

2018 年，我們吸收了超過 10 億美元的遺留資產總收入拖累，導致營收成長下降約 1%，而 2019 年這一數字應該會降至該數額的一半左右。此外，在支出方面，我們現在開始看到效率節約顯著超過我們在特許經營中繼續進行的增量投資。

In the second half of 2018, we realized the net benefit to expenses of roughly $200 million as savings exceeded incremental investments. That should grow to around $500 million to $600 million of net incremental savings in 2019 plus an additional $500 million to $600 million of net incremental benefits in 2020. These net savings should offset volume-driven expenses as we continue to grow the business, and it should also result in positive operating leverage for Citi in total and for our consumer and institutional businesses in 2019.

2018 年下半年，由於節省的資金超過了增量投資，我們實現了約 2 億美元的淨支出收益。2019 年，淨增量節省額應會成長至約 5 億至 6 億美元，2020 年淨增量收益將增加 5 億至 6 億美元。隨著我們業務的不斷發展，這些淨節省應該可以抵消由數量驅動的支出，而且還將為花旗銀行以及我們的消費者和機構業務在 2019 年帶來積極的營運槓桿。

Of course, the magnitude of operating leverage we can achieve this year is sensitive to the revenue environment. But even if the environment is challenging, we believe we can deliver more total efficiency improvement than we did in 2018 and achieving a 12% our RoTCE goal for this year is not dependent on capturing the full efficiency benefits we laid out in the fall, which showed roughly 175 basis points of improvement to our efficiency ratio in 2019.

當然，我們今年能夠實現的經營槓桿幅度對營收環境很敏感。但即使環境充滿挑戰，我們也相信我們可以實現比 2018 年更多的整體效率提升，並且實現今年 12% 的 RoTCE 目標並不取決於獲得我們在秋季制定的全部效率效益，這表明我們的效率比率在 2019 年提高了約 175 個基點。

Credit continues to perform well. Our effective tax rate is coming in better than we had originally estimated under the new tax regime with the potential to move somewhat lower. And as you saw in the fourth quarter, if growth opportunities are limited, we will prudently manage the balance sheet to limit RWA growth, and therefore, our capital needs.

信貸持續表現良好。在新的稅制下，我們的有效稅率比我們最初估計的要好，而且有可能略有下降。正如您在第四季度看到的那樣，如果成長機會有限，我們將謹慎管理資產負債表以限制 RWA 成長，從而限制我們的資本需求。

It's still our goal to get the efficiency ratio into the low 50% range. And we believe that the right level, given the investments we're making in digital and automation as well as our mix of businesses. But our primary goal is to responsibly and sustainably improve the return we're delivering on our shareholders' equity from the roughly 11% we achieved in 2018 to about 12% this year and over 13.5% in 2020.

我們的目標仍然是將效率比率提高到 50% 以下。我們相信，考慮到我們在數位和自動化領域的投資以及業務組合，這個水平是正確的。但我們的首要目標是負責任地、可持續地提高股東權益回報率，從 2018 年的約 11% 提高到今年的約 12%，到 2020 年提高到 13.5% 以上。

And with that, Mike, Mark and I are happy to take any and all questions.

因此，麥克、馬克和我很樂意回答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) And we have a question from the line of Jim Mitchell with Buckingham Research.

（操作員指示）我們有一個來自白金漢研究公司的吉姆·米切爾的問題。

John, congrats on retirement.

約翰，恭喜你退休。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

Maybe if I can follow-up on just -- you're still out of time there at the end on the expense flexibility. I think that's a big sort of concern in the marketplace given the revenue backdrop at least in the fourth quarter, that can change quickly in capital markets, and appreciate the commitment to the RoTCE. But when we think about in a more dire scenario, how much kind of a flexibility do you have? You were down 4% year-over-year in a tougher environment can you get expenses down year-over-year in 2019? How do we think about sort of that range of flexibility so we can kind of play around with our models?

也許我可以跟進一下——最後關於費用靈活性的問題你仍然沒有時間。我認為，考慮到至少第四季的收入背景，這是市場的一個重大擔憂，資本市場可能會迅速變化，並且讚賞對 RoTCE 的承諾。但是當我們考慮更嚴峻的情況時，你有多少彈性？在更艱難的環境下，你們的支出較去年同期下降了 4%，你們能在 2019 年達到年減嗎？我們如何看待這種靈活性，以便我們可以嘗試各種模型？

Jim, this is Mark Mason. I turn you to Page 17 inside of the deck that John just went through. And what 17 shows, if you look back all the way to 2016 and you -- it shows the long -- the trailing month efficiency ratios. And what we've shown here is that year-over-year for the past number of quarters, we've been able to bring that operating efficiency down. But more importantly to your question around expense ranges we can manage to, you can look at the fourth quarter of 2018 and see we ran at about $41.8 billion. And if you look back at any of those years in 2017 and 2016, that's about the range in which we run over the past couple years. And so to answer your question, I think as we think about the prospects for 2019 and our ability to manage expenses tightly, this is probably the range you should think about.

吉姆，這是馬克梅森。我把您翻到約翰剛剛看完的那一疊卡片的第 17 頁。17 顯示的是什麼，如果你回顧 2016 年的情況，它顯示了過去幾個月的效率比率。我們在這裡展示的是，與去年同期相比，過去幾個季度，我們已經能夠降低營運效率。但更重要的是，對於您關於我們能夠管理的支出範圍的問題，您可以看看 2018 年第四季度，我們的支出約為 418 億美元。如果你回顧 2017 年和 2016 年的任何一年，你會發現這大概就是我們過去幾年的經營狀況。因此，回答您的問題，我認為當我們考慮 2019 年的前景和嚴格管理費用的能力時，這可能是您應該考慮的範圍。

Okay. All right, that's helpful. And then maybe just one question on credit and cards, you -- are you still comfortable, John, or -- with the 3% in branded cards and 5%? Or is -- I know that was sort of your prior expectations, is that still the expectation in '19 for the card losses?

好的。好的，這很有幫助。然後也許只有一個關於信用卡和信用卡的問題，你——你還滿意嗎，約翰，或者——品牌信用卡的 3% 和 5% 的利率？或者——我知道這有點像您之前的預期，這仍然是 19 年對卡片損失的預期嗎？

Yes. What we said, the medium-term expectations would be that branded cards would operate in that range of 3% to 3.25% and retail services in the 5% to 5.25%. And those are still valid assumptions as we move forward, and specifically for 2019.

是的。我們所說的中期預期是品牌卡的營運利率將在 3% 至 3.25% 的範圍內，零售服務的營運利率將在 5% 至 5.25% 的範圍內。隨著我們不斷前進，特別是對於 2019 年來說，這些假設仍然有效。

Your next question is from the line of John McDonald with Bernstein.

您的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的約翰·麥克唐納。

Mark, was wondering if you could clarify the range that you're referring to? In your answer to Jim's question, you mentioned the $41.8 billion this quarter. It's low on that slide. Was there a range from that to something else or just kind of this ballpark of $41 billion to $42 billion? Just wondering kind of what you're referring to there.

馬克，想知道您是否可以澄清您所指的範圍？在回答吉姆的問題時，您提到了本季的 418 億美元。它在那張幻燈片上很低。有沒有一個從這個數字到其他數字的大概範圍，或者只是 410 億美元到 420 億美元的大概數字？我只是想知道你指的是什麼。

Ballpark range. If you look into Page 17, fourth quarter of '16, the LTM there was about $42.3 billion. Fourth quarter of '18 is about $41.8 billion. So that's a ballpark range roughly.

大概範圍。如果你看第 17 頁，2016 年第四季度，那裡的 LTM 約為 423 億美元。2018 年第四季約為 418 億美元。這是一個大致的範圍。

Okay. Got it. And then 2 questions for you guys. On the branded card, John, you mentioned feeling good about the momentum continuing on the NII front, which was very solid this quarter and better fees as you lap the partnership headwind. So what's a reasonable revenue growth aspiration for 2019 in this kind of economy? Is it similar to how you exited here in that 2% to 3%? Is that kind of how you're thinking about branded card revenues for '19?

好的。知道了。然後我想問你們兩個問題。關於品牌卡，約翰，您提到對 NII 方面繼續保持的勢頭感到滿意，本季度 NII 表現非常穩健，而且由於克服了合作夥伴關係的阻力，費用也得到了改善。那麼在這種經濟情勢下，2019 年合理的收入成長目標是多少呢？這與您在 2% 到 3% 的退出方式類似嗎？這就是您對 19 年品牌卡收入的看法嗎？

Yes. I mean, if you -- the branded cards, as John mentioned, fourth quarter roughly 3% underlying. And that's a -- we think of that as a pretty good run rate going into 2019.

是的。我的意思是，如果你——品牌卡，正如約翰所提到的，第四季的基本面約為 3%。我們認為，2019 年的運行率相當不錯。

Okay. And then you mentioned the card loss guidance just a question ago. Just wondering on the card ROA, I think the previous target for branded card was 215 basis points branded card ROA. For the year, you're at 180. In this quarter, you're at 211. Is that 215 kind of the aspiration on the branded card ROA? I think that was prior to tax reform? I was wondering what your updates thoughts are there.

好的。然後您剛才提到了卡片遺失指導。我只是對卡 ROA 感到疑惑，我認為品牌卡的先前目標是 215 個基點的品牌卡 ROA。今年，您已經 180 歲了。本季度，您的數量為 211。215 是品牌卡 ROA 的期望嗎？我認為那是在稅制改革之前？我想知道您對更新有何看法。

Yes. That's still the target we're moving towards for branded cards and then now with tax reform.

是的。這仍然是我們針對品牌卡以及現在的稅改所努力的目標。

Okay. Okay. So kind of new tax rates maybe offsetting increased competition or stays about the same?

好的。好的。那麼新的稅率可能會抵消日益激烈的競爭，還是保持不變？

There's probably a little bit of upside to that.

這可能還有一點好處。

Got it. Okay. So staying conservative there.

知道了。好的。因此，我們保持保守態度。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question is from the line of Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬特·奧康納。

Are there any specific marks that you'd want to call out either within fixed income trading or other areas related to hung deals? Or -- obviously, it's just kind of a tough December and spreads widened and some of it is just kind of normal marks, but are there specific marks you'd want to call out? And then have those reversed in January? There's been some articles out there talking about spreads tightening and banks able to offload some stuff they couldn't just last month.

您是否想在固定收益交易或與懸而未決的交易相關的其他領域中指出任何具體標記？或者——顯然，這只是一個艱難的十二月，利差擴大，其中一些只是正常的標記，但是您是否想要指出具體的標記？那麼，這些情況在一月有逆轉嗎？有一些文章談論利差收緊以及銀行能夠出售上個月無法出售的一些資產。

The short answer to that is no. We -- that is not what we saw in our particular trading results. And to the extent we have those kind of marks, they'd be more likely to end up in our loan revenue that we were talking about. And you can see we had fairly robust loan revenue growth again, so that's not what's impacting us.

簡短的回答是「不」。我們——這不是我們在特定交易結果中看到的。如果我們有這些標記，它們就更有可能成為我們所說的貸款收入。您可以看到，我們的貸款收入再次實現了相當強勁的成長，所以這並不是對我們造成影響的原因。

Okay. And then just a bigger picture question. I mean, obviously, if you look at where bank stocks in general, especially your stocks, there's concern about a macro slowdown. I don't think we're seeing it outside the capital market revenues in your results. But anything real time that you're seeing in the GTS business? Obviously, you see a lot of global corporates, a lot of government data. We have the shutdown in the U.S. Just kind of any real-time updates in terms of macro traditions that you're seeing.

好的。然後是一個更大的問題。我的意思是，顯然，如果你看一下銀行股的整體情況，特別是你的股票，你會發現人們對宏觀經濟放緩的擔憂。我認為，除了資本市場收入之外，我們無法在您的業績中看到這一點。但是您在 GTS 業務中看到任何即時情況嗎？顯然，你會看到很多全球企業和政府的數據。美國已經停擺。就您所看到的宏觀傳統而言，這只是一種即時更新。

Yes. No, what I'd say we see is we actually see a -- certainly, U.S. and even more broad global economy where the underlying fundamentals, in particular on a domestic economy basis as you go around the world, comprised of strong, tight labor markets, reasonable wage increases, good consumption while investment coming down still reasonable. And I think the -- what's clearly in the fourth quarter overshadowed that was really market fears over what the transition from QE to QT might look and feel like. And obviously, we saw a lot being paid attention to pretty much any word that came out of the Fed's mouth. And I think the third piece is, that adds to that volatility, is things such as trade, kind of the on, off-again momentum of trade negotiations, obviously, affecting 2 of the biggest economies in the world. And I think when we put those 3 things together, we clearly see a disconnect between what we see in our business on an anecdotal basis and what the markets are saying. So we don't see it. And I think what we've said before, and I think others have said before, is that right now we see the biggest risk in the global economy is one of talking ourselves into the next recession as opposed to the underlying fundamentals taking us there.

是的。不，我想說的是，我們實際上看到的是——當然，美國經濟，甚至更廣泛的全球經濟，其基本面，特別是全球國內經濟基礎，包括強勁、緊張的勞動力市場、合理的工資增長、良好的消費，而投資下降仍然合理。我認為，第四季度的明顯表現掩蓋了市場對量化寬鬆到量化緊縮的過渡的擔憂。顯然，我們看到聯準會說出的任何話都受到了廣泛關注。我認為第三個因素是貿易等因素加劇了這種波動，貿易談判的起伏勢頭顯然影響著世界上最大的兩個經濟體。我認為，當我們把這三件事放在一起時，我們會清楚地看到，我們在業務中看到的軼事與市場所說的之間存在脫節。所以我們看不到它。我想我們之前說過，我想其他人之前也說過，目前我們看到的全球經濟的最大風險是，我們自己陷入下一次衰退，而不是潛在的基本面引領我們走向衰退。

Your next question is from the line of Glenn Schorr with Evercore.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Glenn Schorr。

Okay. So I just wanted to hammer home one thing that you said. You said you won't sacrifice key investments for competing in the future in response to the market condition side. I get it, and you are doing that. But as you balance -- you have a lot of targets out there, and I think we've probably all we over obsessed over each basis point on them. But as you balance to hitting the targets versus the necessary investments, can we just rewind and go through what you think those couple of key investments -- I know there's more than that, but key investments to make you, as you said, competitive in 2019 and beyond? What's going to drive growth?

好的。所以我只是想強調你所說的一件事。您說了，不會為了因應市場狀況而犧牲未來競爭的重點投資。我明白了，你正在這樣做。但是當你平衡時——你有很多目標，我認為我們可能都對它們的每個基點過於痴迷。但是，當您在實現目標與必要的投資之間進行權衡時，我們能否回顧一下您認為的那幾項關鍵投資——我知道不止這些，但正如您所說，這些關鍵投資可以讓您在 2019 年及以後保持競爭力？什麼將推動成長？

Sure. So if you go back and you look at the last page or so that John talked about, when you look at underlying growth in the business, if you look at -- John talked about the $9 billion of TTS revenue growing at 11%. We talked about Securities Services, the Private Bank, lending, Mexico, U.S. branded cards, equities, M&A. If you just take those revenues and add them up, you're in excess of 50% of the revenue of the firm. And those are -- if you look at the momentum in those businesses, it's clearly strong. And what we don't want to do is stop that investment or do anything that has the potential to derail the growth that, in every way, we've worked so hard to build. And so again, when you think about things that are top of list, clearly, the more broad investment in terms of digital. We talked about some of those cost saves that have begun to come through, roughly the 200 this year, manifesting itself in 500 to 600 incremental in each of the next 2 years, a lot of that savings is dependent upon the continued investment in terms of the switch from analog to digital, and in particular in parts of our consumer business kind of coming from behind and kind of getting cards back on track, the empty calories of carding marketing investment in terms of our platforms there. The investments that we started and have been executing against in terms of Mexico. I think all of these things, you're seeing good and we have a lot of confidence in those paybacks. So I don't think there's anything in our list of investments, Glenn, that would surprise you. And obviously, as the environment evolves, we're going to continue to watch those very carefully. And if we start to deem some of those lower priority, we're certainly willing to pull back on those. But what I don't want to do is get lured into the start-stop that's so disruptive. That right now, I just described to Matt an economy where we don't see the underlying fundamentals having significantly changed. We saw that in 2011. We saw that again coming out of 2015 into 2016. In each of those time frames, we went back to have better growth and recessionary years fall away. I can't say that's the point this time. But what I don't want to do is I don't want to sacrifice that momentum that we've got going right now as we go into 2019. But if and when appropriate, we're going to pull the levers we need to pull.

當然。因此，如果你回過頭來看看約翰談到的最後一頁左右，當你看到業務的潛在增長時，如果你看看——約翰談到 90 億美元的 TTS 收入增長了 11%。我們討論了證券服務、私人銀行、貸款、墨西哥、美國品牌卡、股票、併購。如果你把這些收入加起來，就會超過公司收入的 50%。如果你看一下這些業務的發展勢頭，你會發現它顯然非常強勁。我們不想停止投資，也不想做任何可能破壞我們費盡心思建構的成長的事情。所以，當你考慮最重要的事情時，顯然，在數字方面需要更廣泛的投資。我們談到了一些已經開始實現的成本節省，今年大約節省了 200 美元，未來兩年每年將增加 500 到 600 美元，其中很大一部分節省依賴於從模擬到數字轉換方面的持續投資，特別是在我們的部分消費者業務方面，這些業務有點落後，並且有點讓卡片重回正軌，就我們的平台而言，卡片營銷投資毫無意義。我們在墨西哥已經開始並正在執行的投資。我認為所有這些事情都是好的，我們對這些回報充滿信心。因此，格倫，我認為我們的投資清單中不會有任何內容會讓你感到驚訝。顯然，隨著環境的變化，我們將繼續密切關注這些問題。如果我們開始認為其中一些事項的優先順序較低，我們當然願意放棄它們。但我不想被這種太具破壞性的啟停所吸引。現在，我剛剛向馬特描述了一個我們認為基本面沒有重大變化的經濟。我們在 2011 年就看到了這一點。我們在 2015 年和 2016 年再次看到了這個現象。在每個時間段內，我們都恢復了更好的成長，經濟衰退的時期也逐漸消失。我不能說這就是這次的重點。但我不想做的是，我不想犧牲我們在進入 2019 年時所擁有的勢頭。但如果適當的話，我們就會採取必要的措施。

Mike, I'm not sure we mentioned TTS in particular as well in addition to those businesses. We're putting more investment into that business, building out the client experience, building out the platform. That's obviously the business that's a large growing part of our franchise and we want to maintain the competitive position we have there.

麥克，除了這些業務之外，我不確定我們是否也特別提到了 TTS。我們正在對業務投入更多資金，打造客戶體驗，建立平台。顯然，這是我們特許經營業務中成長最快的部分，我們希望保持在該領域的競爭地位。

I appreciate all that. If I could, 2 quick, what I'll call annoying questions that come up plenty. One is your exposure and lending into the CLO market as a lender. Can you just maybe talk about your positioning there and then what collateral, what LTVs and what protections you have in that world. And then also just anything you could say about the size of Sears and why just because one retailer goes out doesn't mean people stop paying their bills.

我對此表示感謝。如果可以的話，我快速回答一下那些經常出現的令人厭煩的問題。一是您作為貸款人對 CLO 市場的曝險和貸款。您能否談談您的定位，以及您在那個領域擁有哪些抵押品、哪些 LTV 以及哪些保護措施。然後你也可以說說西爾斯的規模，以及為什麼僅僅因為一家零售商倒閉並不意味著人們停止支付賬單。

So I'll start off on the leveraged lending piece. So first, from a direct exposure perspective, we talked about our corporate loans as being largely investment grade. And as of the end of 2018, our exposure, both funded and unfunded was roughly about 83% investment grade. So less than about 20% is not rated investment grade, and of that, about 55% is funded. And of course, all these exposures are subject to our risk appetite framework, and we feel really comfortable with that. So although leveraged lending is not a material component of our overall lending business, we do, of course, participate in that space to serve our target clients in the ICG. And when we look at that, we would also have some exposure to leverage loans related to CLOs, and there are 2 places where that exposure resides. So one is and our Markets business and the other is in our investment portfolio. And in both cases, there are limits that are imposed on the exposure. And our exposures are -- again are, of course, subject to our overall risk framework. In our Markets business, we serve as a warehouse lender and an underwriter for CLO manager clients and we make markets for our investor clients in the secondary market for CLOs. I'd make a couple of comments on the warehouse lending that we do, which is subject to an aggregate $5 billion exposure limit. First, there's some structural protections that are in place that have been enhanced since the crisis. Second, unlike the precrisis, our CLO primary syndicate does not retain any residual exposure post the issuance. And as I said, we do make markets for our investor clients in the secondary market, but that exposure is subject to a market risk RWA limit of about $1.5 billion. So as far as our investment portfolio is concerned, the holdings are well diversified and represent exposure to about 75 unique CLOs. And those investments are limited to most senior tranches of the CLOs that are rated AAA. There are also some restrictions in terms of structure. For example, we only invest in CLOs which include performance triggers. And so net-net, we feel pretty good about our exposure. We're not heavy into leverage lending. If you look at some of the underwriting charts, we rank pretty low on those underwriting charts, and so we feel pretty good about where we stand at this point.

因此我將從槓桿貸款部分開始。首先，從直接風險敞口的角度來看，我們的公司貸款基本上屬於投資等級。截至 2018 年底，我們的投資等級敞口（包括已註資和未註資）約為 83%。因此，不到 20% 的債券未被評為投資等級，而其中約 55% 的債券是有融資的。當然，所有這些風險敞口都受我們的風險偏好框架的約束，我們對此感到非常滿意。因此，儘管槓桿貸款不是我們整體貸款業務的重要組成部分，但我們當然會參與該領域，為 ICG 中的目標客戶提供服務。當我們考慮這一點時，我們還會有一些與 CLO 相關的槓桿貸款敞口，而這種敞口存在於兩個地方。一個是我們的市場業務，另一個是我們的投資組合。在這兩種情況下，曝光量都有限制。當然，我們的風險敞口還是受制於我們的整體風險框架。在我們的市場業務中，我們充當 CLO 經理客戶的倉庫貸款人和承銷商，並在 CLO 的二級市場為我們的投資者客戶創造市場。我想就我們開展的倉庫貸款業務發表幾點評論，該業務的總風險敞口上限為 50 億美元。首先，自危機以來，一些結構性保護措施已經加強。其次，與危機前不同，我們的 CLO 主要辛迪加在發行後沒有保留任何剩餘風險敞口。正如我所說，我們確實在二級市場為我們的投資者客戶提供市場，但這種風險敞口受到約 15 億美元市場風險 RWA 限額的限制。因此，就我們的投資組合而言，持股非常多樣化，涉及約 75 種獨特的 CLO。這些投資僅限於評級為 AAA 的 CLO 的最高級部分。結構方面也存在一些限制。例如，我們只投資包含績效觸發器的 CLO。因此，總體而言，我們對我們的曝光度感覺相當良好。我們對槓桿貸款的投入並不大。如果你看一下核保圖表，你會發現我們在這些核保圖表上的排名相當低，所以我們對目前的狀況感到相當滿意。

Can you touch on Sears?

能談談西爾斯嗎？

Sure. So in terms of Sears, as you know, we don't comment on retail partner financial conditions. But I guess what I will say is you'll recall that last quarter, we indicated an upfront impact under a full liquidation scenario for Sears that could be in a range of about $300 million. And that included certain accruals, the write down of a portion of our related intangibles and the time and cost of migrating the cardholders to other Citi products. Today, we'd expect that, that total impact would be more like $200 million. So the impact had declined due in part to an additional quarter of intangible amortization as well as the refinement to our original estimate. By the way, I'd point out that we booked a small reserve in the fourth quarter that's associated with certain contingent liabilities. But if Sears pursued a liquidation in the near term, you can think about the vast majority of this impact coming in the first half of 2019. And again, much of the impact would have otherwise been recognized as ongoing amortization expense by the end of '19 anyway. So the net incremental impact would likely be less than $100 million for the full year. And beyond that upfront impact, an acceleration of store closures would likely have an impact on the retail services revenues, perhaps resulting to -- in a flat top line result in total for '19 and '20 given the expected impact of new account acquisitions.

當然。因此，就西爾斯而言，如您所知，我們不對零售合作夥伴的財務狀況發表評論。但我想說的是，你會記得，上個季度，我們指出西爾斯在完全清算情況下的前期影響可能在 3 億美元左右。其中包括某些應計項目、部分相關無形資產的減記以及將持卡人遷移到其他花旗產品所需的時間和成本。今天，我們預計總影響將超過 2 億美元。因此，影響有所下降，部分原因是無形資產攤銷增加了一個季度，以及對我們最初估計的改進。順便說一句，我想指出的是，我們在第四季度預留了一小筆與某些或有負債相關的儲備金。但如果西爾斯在短期內進行清算，你可以想像這種影響的絕大部分將出現在 2019 年上半年。而且，無論如何，到 19 年底，大部分影響都會被確認為持續攤銷費用。因此，全年淨增量影響可能不到 1 億美元。除了前期影響之外，加速關閉門市可能會對零售服務收入產生影響，考慮到新帳戶獲取的預期影響，或許會導致 2019 年和 2020 年的總營收持平。

And Glenn, just specific to your question, in there, again we've talked about it before, but you've got a co-brand card here where 70% of the volume on that card is out of store, which is consistent with top of wallet. So this is not just an in-store product, but it's a utility product for these people where they're using in broad ways. So I think the access to that and the access to the credit and the top of wallet nature, we take comfort in, in terms of the people's desire to keep that outstanding.

格倫，具體到你的問題，我們之前也討論過這個問題，但你這裡有一張聯名卡，該卡上 70% 的交易量來自店外，這與錢包頂部一致。因此，這不僅僅是一種店內產品，而且對這些人來說，它還是一種廣泛使用的實用產品。因此，我認為，從人們希望保持這種狀況的願望來看，獲得這種狀況、獲得信貸和錢包頂部的性質讓我們感到欣慰。

Your next question is from the line of Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國證券的麥克梅奧。

I have a question on efficiency. Slide 17 showed improving efficiency for the last 2 years. You can go back further and see improving efficiency. But when we look at your efficiency business line by business line, it looks worse than peer. So my question is what else can you do to improve intensity of expense control? And I'm not talking about cutting CapEx or long-term investments. Mike, I heard what you said. You don't want to have stop-start, stop-start. But what are you doing for travel, entertainment, black cars, Ubers, size of coffee cups, paper clips? The sort of tone at the top says, "Hey, we've made a lot of progress, but we still have a long way to go." We don't know we get that sense or I don't personally always get that sense, that this is a firm that needs to better optimize, notwithstanding how far you've come.

我有一個關於效率的問題。幻燈片 17 顯示了過去兩年效率的提高。您可以進一步回顧並看到效率的提高。但當我們逐一檢視你們各業務線的效率時，就會發現你們的效率比同行更差。所以我的問題是，您還可以做些什麼來提高費用控制力道？我並不是談論削減資本支出或長期投資。麥克，我聽到了你說的話。你不想遇到走走停停、再走走的情況。但是，你對旅行、娛樂、黑色轎車、Uber、咖啡杯尺寸、迴紋針做了什麼呢？高層的語氣是這樣的：「嘿，我們已經取得了很大進步，但我們還有很長的路要走。」我們不知道我們是否有這種感覺，或者我個人並不總是有這種感覺，無論你已經走了多遠，這是一家需要更好地優化的公司。

Mike, I think you've got to go back and put in a little bit of context of history, right. Having gone through the crisis and the things that we needed to do, we cut back, we curtailed, we stopped a lot of those things and tightly monitored those things that you mentioned. So it wasn't we came out of the crisis and everybody's flying around the world first class and staying in 5-star hotels. We put in place, we maintain and monitor strict travel policies in terms of off sites, in terms of all the spends that we have. We put them in place, we monitor and we continue to take efficiencies from those. So it's not like they were there, in better times they went away and we're putting them back. We obviously continue to monitor and push those. So probably why you don't hear about it is because they got put in place and we just continue to push them as opposed to putting new things on. But in the environment, as we said, we're going to do the appropriate things of making sure that we continue to push ourselves on the expense front, at the same time knowing that we've got to create our own capacity to invest. So we take it seriously. We take it with a sense of urgency. And as a firm, I would say we're all over it.

麥克，我認為你必須回顧並加入一些歷史背景，對吧。經歷了危機和我們需要做的事情之後，我們削減、限制、停止了很多事情，並嚴格監控了您提到的那些事情。所以，不是我們走出了危機，然後每個人都乘坐頭等艙環遊世界，住五星級飯店。我們制定、維護並監控嚴格的場外旅行政策以及所有支出政策。我們實施這些措施，進行監控，並持續提高效率。所以，並不是說它們曾經在那裡，而是在情況好轉時它們消失了，而我們又把它們放了回來。我們顯然會繼續監控並推動這些。所以，您之所以沒有聽說過，可能是因為它們已經到位，而我們只是繼續推動它們，而不是添加新的東西。但在環境方面，正如我們所說，我們將採取適當的措施，確保我們繼續在支出方面努力，同時也知道我們必須創造自己的投資能力。所以我們非常重視此事。我們懷著緊迫感對待它。作為一家公司，我想說我們已經完全了解了這一點。

As a follow-up then, maybe one for John and one for Mark. John, you had made progress but maybe not -- maybe you didn't get everything done that you wanted to get done. So as you look at Citi as you're about to leave, where do you see some possibilities that you didn't get exactly what you wanted? And then, Mark, what's the difference in your approach versus John in how you're going to look at things and maybe nuanced changes?

那麼作為後續行動，也許一個給約翰，一個給馬克。約翰，你已經取得了進步，但也許不是——也許你沒有完成所有你想完成的事情。那麼，當您即將離開花旗銀行時，您認為哪些方面可能讓您沒有得到自己想要的東西？那麼，馬克，你看待事物的方式與約翰相比有什麼不同，也許還有細微的變化？

Yes, Mike, when you look at -- actually, the answer to both the question you asked to Mike and to me, when we look at the efficiency by business, most of the work still has to get done in the consumer business. And if you look at where we need to focus, it certainly isn't in the cards business. I think you understand and we understand cards is already a very efficient business. We need to improve the efficiency in our retail business, and that's what a lot of the investments are focused on. And that's where we as -- also need to be able to grow our revenues. So I'd say that that's a business that is going to need improvement going forward, and it's one that we highlighted when we laid out Investor Day. So again, that's where we're geared going forward. But that's -- it's in the overall efficiency in the consumer business where we still have some work to do. I'll turn it over to Mark.

是的，麥克，當你看的時候——實際上，你問麥克和我的問題的答案是，當我們從業務效率來看時，大部分工作仍然需要在消費者業務中完成。如果你看看我們需要關注的重點，那肯定不是卡片業務。我想您和我們都明白，卡片已經是一項非常有效率的業務。我們需要提高零售業務的效率，這也是大量投資的重點。這也是我們需要增加收入的地方。所以我想說，這是一個未來需要改進的業務，也是我們在投資者日活動時強調的一點。所以，這就是我們前進的方向。但那是——在消費者業務的整體效率方面我們仍有一些工作要做。我將把它交給馬克。

Yes. I guess I'd say, one, I'd like to just echo the point that we are intensely focused on this. We're focused on not only the efficiency but on delivering the return targets that we've set. And so you've seen the numbers, we've gone from an 8.1% return on tangible common equity last year to a target of 10.5% this year, to delivering a 10.9% this year as an actual number. And I recognize that, that is still short of where we target it for ourselves going forward, and I recognize we've got a 12% return on tangible common equity for 2019. But as both Mike and John have said, we're preparing for bearing operating environments and doing so in a way that we can ensure that we still hit that 12%. And that involves all of the line items. That involves what we can do to continue to realize the benefits and the momentum we're seeing in the strong parts of the franchise, many of which both Mike and John have gone through. It involves us delivering on the savings from productivity, the $500 million to $600 million that largely should offset the volume and compensation growth that we see in revenue growth going into '19. It involves continuing to manage the cost of credit. And we think the fourth quarter run -- the fourth quarter number is probably a good run looking into 2019. It involves continuing to manage the tax line. That number's come in better than what we expected when we're talking about 2018 performance. And it involves managing the balance sheet. And again, as we saw the fourth quarter come down in revenues, we were able to bring our risk-weighted assets down as well. And so my commitment is probably a lot similar -- not probably, is a lot similar to what John's commitment and Mike's commitment has been. My commitment is the execution of the strategy that we've talked about, delivering against the targets that we've set and building in the flexibility that allows for us to manage in uncertain environments.

是的。我想說的是，首先，我想重申我們非常關注這一點。我們不僅注重效率，也注重實現我們設定的回報目標。所以你已經看到了這些數字，我們的有形普通股權益回報率從去年的 8.1% 上升到了今年的目標 10.5%，而今年的實際數字是 10.9%。我意識到，這仍然沒有達到我們未來的目標，我認識到我們 2019 年的有形普通股回報率為 12%。但正如麥克和約翰所說，我們正在為承受的操作環境做準備，並以確保我們仍然達到 12% 的方式進行。這涉及所有項目。這涉及到我們可以做些什麼來繼續實現我們在特許經營的強大部分中看到的好處和動力，其中許多都是麥克和約翰都經歷過的。它涉及我們透過提高生產力而節省的 5 億至 6 億美元，這筆錢應該在很大程度上抵消我們在 2019 年收入成長中看到的數量和薪資成長。它涉及繼續管理信貸成本。我們認為，展望 2019 年，第四季的數據可能表現良好。它涉及繼續管理稅收線。當我們談論 2018 年的表現時，這個數字比我們預期的要好。它還涉及管理資產負債表。而且，隨著第四季營收的下降，我們也能降低風險加權資產。因此，我的承諾可能非常相似——不是可能，而是與約翰和麥克的承諾非常相似。我的承諾是執行我們所討論的策略，實現我們設定的目標，並建立靈活性，使我們能夠在不確定的環境中進行管理。

Your next question is from the line of Steven Chubak with Wolfe Research.

您的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Steven Chubak。

So I was trying to unpack some of the revenue guidance for 2019. And given some of the favorable guidance you gave on NII, up $2 billion year-on-year, it implies you should be able to hit that 3% revenue vertical even with the income staying flattish in '19. And I'm just wondering, is that the right way to interpret the guidance? And is that why you specifically mentioned the flattish fee income growth almost as a floor for '19? And certainly, you conveyed a very positive tone on your ability to hit that 3% target.

因此，我試著解讀 2019 年的一些收入指引。鑑於您對 NII 給予的一些有利指導，即同比增長 20 億美元，這意味著即使 19 年的收入保持平穩，您也應該能夠達到 3% 的收入垂直增長。我只是想知道，這是解釋該指導的正確方法嗎？這就是為什麼您特別提到費用收入成長幾乎是 19 年的底線嗎？當然，您對實現 3% 目標的能力表達了非常積極的態度。

Yes. So I'd say 2 things. One, you're spot on in terms of NII, in that we feel like our ability to deliver on the $2 billion or so or similar performance to what we saw in 2018. And then in terms of the noninterest revenue, as we mentioned, that was a decline this year. We should certainly see growth in the noninterest revenue this year. But you do have to keep in mind that our reported growth for noninterest revenue will look a little bit lower than the underlying because of a number of onetimers, including the wind down of legacy assets and things like the Hilton gain and the B2B share gains, et cetera. So I think the way you can think about it is that the bulk of the reported growth that we'd expect to see next year would come in the NII line, but we would not see the decline in noninterest revenue, and perhaps you can see some upside there.

是的。所以我想說兩件事。首先，就國家資訊基礎設施而言，您說得很對，我們覺得我們有能力實現 20 億美元左右的目標，或實現與 2018 年類似的表現。就非利息收入而言，正如我們所提到的，今年的收入有所下降。我們今年肯定會看到非利息收入的成長。但你必須記住，由於一些一次性事件，包括遺留資產的減少以及希爾頓收益和 B2B 份額收益等，我們報告的非利息收入成長看起來會略低於基本收入。所以我認為你可以這樣想：我們預計明年報告的成長大部分將來自NII線，但我們不會看到非利息收入的下降，也許你可以看到一些上行空間。

Got it, okay. And switching gears for a moment just to capital targets. We've heard some recent run rate come out of the Fed on capital rules and the SCB. And something that they've made pretty clear, and the word choice that they've used is that the industry currently holds adequate levels of capital. So it certainly suggests rules are unlikely to get tougher from here. At the same time, it's less clear whether they're going to see meaningful relief either. Now I'm just wondering, based on your discussions with regulators, expectations for the SCB, and whether your thinking has evolved on your long-term capital targets of 11% to 11.5%. Do you still view that goal as being appropriate based on your current vantage point?

知道了，好的。暫時把話題轉到資本目標。我們聽說了聯準會最近發布的一些有關資本規則和渣打銀行的運作率消息。他們已經明確表示，他們使用的措辭是，該行業目前擁有足夠的資本水準。因此，這無疑表明規則不太可能從現在開始變得更加嚴格。同時，他們是否會看到有意義的緩解也不太清楚。現在我只是想知道，根據您與監管機構的討論，對渣打銀行的期望，以及您對 11% 至 11.5% 的長期資本目標的想法是否有所變化。從您目前的觀點來看，您是否仍然認為該目標是合適的？

Yes. I think with the SCB getting pushed out to 2020, what we would say is we've talked very publicly about the 11.5%. And I would say based on what we know today, that continues to feel to be the right neighborhood for us. Obviously, as we go forward, we'll continue to refine that, but I think we're quite comfortable with the 11.5% today.

是的。我認為，隨著 SCB 被推遲到 2020 年，我們會說我們已經非常公開地談論過 11.5% 的問題了。我想說，根據我們今天所了解的情況，我們仍然覺得那裡是適合我們的社區。顯然，隨著我們不斷前進，我們會繼續改進這一點，但我認為我們對今天的 11.5% 感到滿意。

I think the only thing I'd add to Mike's comment is that 11.5% that we laid out there, that was never intended to be a bright-line limit. And there's a great deal of variability in many of the components, some of the things that you just talked about that go into calculating the CET1 ratio. So we would expect to operate on an ongoing basis with a CET1 ratio in the range of 11.5%. So in other words, we may periodically dip slightly below that 11.5% and that would still be okay.

我認為我對麥克的評論唯一要補充的是，我們列出的 11.5% 從來就不是明確的限制。許多組成部分都存在很大的可變性，您剛才談到的一些因素都會影響 CET1 比率的計算。因此，我們預計 CET1 比率將持續保持在 11.5% 左右。換句話說，我們可能會週期性地略微低於 11.5%，但這仍然是可以接受的。

Very helpful, John. One final question for me. Just on noninterest-bearing deposits, you reported another 5% drop-off in those balances in 4Q. It appears to be more of an industry-wide phenomenon. So maybe you could speak to which segments specifically are seeing the steepest declines. And maybe what's your expectation in terms of where that could bottom as a percentage of total deposits?

非常有幫助，約翰。我還有最後一個問題。僅就無息存款而言，您報告第四季度其餘額又下降了 5%。這似乎是全行業現象。所以也許您可以談談具體哪些部分出現了最急劇的下滑。您預計該金額佔總存款的百分比會達到多少？

I'm not going to give you the guidance as to where it could bottom. But what we have seen is most of that decline, obviously, is in U.S. retail, which is where the bulk of our noninterest-bearing deposits are. And there, what we've seen is 2 things. We've seen flows out of the noninterest bearing directly into interest bearing, and we've also seen flows going into investment products. I'd say that especially in the second half of this year, we've seen flows -- overall flows in our consumer retail deposits, excluding commercial deposits, that pretty much have normalized now. We're basically -- if you look -- if you could look underneath the numbers, U.S. retail consumer deposits are virtually flat from an end-of-period basis, end of 2017 to 2018. And that's, again, we're getting in new money. Most of the new money is coming into interest-bearing accounts, CDs, but some is coming into the checking. We're continuing to grow our wealth management clients. We increased Citigold households by another 18% this year. And what that means though is that those clients are operating where we would expect those clients to operate, which is they're starting to move money into investments. But we're retaining -- in the second half of the year, our retention rate on those flows into investment accounts improved to 75%. So we think right now, we're in a fairly good balance, but we are still going to see a bit of a shift going forward from noninterest bearing into interest bearing.

我不會給你關於它會在哪裡觸底的指導。但我們看到，大部分的下降顯然發生在美國零售業，而我們的無利息存款大部分都集中在那裡。在那裡，我們看到了兩件事。我們看到資金從非生息產品直接流向生息產品，也看到資金流入投資產品。我想說，特別是在今年下半年，我們看到流量——不包括商業存款的消費者零售存款的整體流量現在基本上已經正常化。我們基本上——如果你看一下——如果你看一下數字，你會發現美國零售消費者存款從 2017 年底到 2018 年底的期末來看幾乎持平。也就是說，我們又獲得了新的資金。大部分新資金都進入了有利息的帳戶和存單，但也有一部分進入了支票帳戶。我們正在繼續擴大我們的財富管理客戶。今年，我們的花旗金卡家庭數量又增加了 18%。但這意味著這些客戶的運作方式與我們預期的一樣，即他們開始將資金投入投資。但我們保留了——在下半年，流入投資帳戶的資金保留率提高到了 75%。因此，我們認為，目前我們處於相當好的平衡狀態，但我們仍然會看到從無息轉向有息的轉變。

Just keep in mind our U.S. retail deposits are about $150 billion out of $1 trillion of total deposits we have.

請記住，我們的美國零售存款約占我們 1 兆美元總存款的 1,500 億美元。

All right. Very helpful color. And John, congrats on retirement.

好的。非常有用的顏色。約翰，恭喜你退休。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Your next question is from the line of Marty Mosby with Viking Sparks Management (sic) [Vining Sparks Management].

您的下一個問題來自 Viking Sparks Management（原文如此）[Vining Sparks Management] 的 Marty Mosby。

I had a few questions about just what you're seeing in these particular businesses. If you look at fixed income, the pullback in yield from when it hit high is kind of late summer into the fall. It kind of throws all your yield investments off because you finally started to see rates starting to pick up and then probably just comes right back and they just get kind of frozen, like I wish I would have bought yesterday kind of thing. How do you see that kind of evolving? Have you seen any of this -- it kind of thaws over time because, again, they kind of get back to, okay, well, this is where we're at. We can't get higher rates, so let's go ahead and start doing that. Was some of that part of what we saw in the fourth quarter? And are we seeing any signs of that change for the first quarter?

我對於您在這些特定業務中看到的情況有幾個疑問。如果你看一下固定收益，你會發現收益率從達到高點回落的時間大約是在夏末到秋季。這會打亂你所有的收益投資，因為你終於看到利率開始上升，然後可能馬上就回落，然後就變得有點凍結，就像我希望我昨天就買了那種東西一樣。您如何看待這種演變？您是否看到過這種情況——隨著時間的推移，它會逐漸解凍，因為它們又會回到，好吧，這就是我們所處的位置。我們無法獲得更高的利率，所以讓我們繼續這樣做。我們在第四季看到的情況就是這樣嗎？我們在第一季是否看到了這種變化的跡象？

Marty, the fourth quarter was one of those quarters where there was so much volatility. It's not necessarily whether interest rates are moving up or down. You can certainly get good client engagement and a lot of activity in either of those cases. It's where the market appears somewhat directionless or people aren't quite sure exactly how far something is going. So this is this concept that people have talked about as being bad volatility. And that's really what we saw in the fourth quarter, where the volatility was just so much that people didn't know when to jump in, and therefore they -- everybody just stayed on the sidelines. That -- what we saw and I commented, when I spoke at the Goldman conference, my comments there were about the lack of client engagement that we have begun to see in the G10 rates area of our business. And that was one of the things that led us then to talk about trading revenues overall being down slightly year-over-year because we didn't see that good engagement in G10 rates. With December, we saw basically that extreme volatility, given the overall lack of a view of where rates would finally bottom out, just impact every one of our businesses in fixed income. And that's what really led to the change from being slightly down to where we see it today, where the combination of Equities and FICC ended up being down 14%. But most of that really was in fixed income. It was in the second half of the quarter and predominantly in December. Now we have seen some improvement in trading conditions with volatility moderating and both equity and yields showing signs of stabilization early in January. But it certainly is very early at this point in time, and I would still say that market conditions have yet to fully recover. And I think, Marty, what you saw in particular, in the later stages of the fourth quarter, you could see it manifest when you look at fund returns through the quarter, where people went from, in some cases, having pretty reasonable years to actually having down years. We really saw kind of a mindset that manifested itself in similar ways. For those people that managed to get there and be up, they wanted to protect their ups and weren't willing to necessarily be that active. And those that were down said, "I'm down. I don't want to risk being down further." And so we really saw a precipitous drop-off in terms of client activity as a result of that.

馬蒂，第四季是波動性很大的一個季度。這不一定是利率上升還是下降。無論哪種情況，您肯定都可以獲得良好的客戶參與度和大量的活動。市場似乎沒有方向，或者人們不太確定某件事到底會發展到什麼程度。這就是人們所說的不良波動性的概念。這確實是我們在第四季度看到的情況，波動性太大，人們不知道何時介入，因此，每個人都只是在場外觀望。那是我們所看到的，我在高盛會議上發言時評論說，我們在 G10 利率業務領域開始看到客戶參與度的缺乏。這就是導致我們談論交易收入總體同比略有下降的原因之一，因為我們沒有看到 G10 利率的良好參與。到了 12 月份，我們基本上看到極端波動，由於總體上缺乏對利率最終觸底的看法，這影響了我們固定收益領域的每項業務。這就是導致從小幅下跌到今天這種狀況的真正原因，股票和 FICC 的總和最終下跌了 14%。但其中大部分確實屬於固定收益。它發生在本季度的後半段，主要發生在 12 月。現在，我們看到交易條件有所改善，波動性有所緩和，股票和收益率在 1 月初都顯示出穩定的跡象。但目前來說還為時過早，我仍然認為市場狀況尚未完全恢復。馬蒂，我認為，你在第四季度後期看到的情況，當你查看整個季度的基金回報時，你會發現，在某些情況下，人們的回報從相當合理的年份變成了實際上的下滑年份。我們確實看到了一種以類似方式表現出來的心態。對於那些設法到達那裡並站起來的人來說，他們想要保護自己的站起來位置，而不一定願意那麼積極主動。那些倒下的人說：「我倒下啦。我不想冒險進一步下跌。 」因此，我們確實看到客戶活動急劇下降。

That makes sense. And as you look at the debt underwriting, came in a little bit better. There's a lot of discussion about liquidity and the market beginning to pull back, but I guess rate's coming down. So I just kind of want to balance what you saw with the liquidity market versus with equity underwriting kind of having its trouble with the valuations coming down, maybe more of a pouring into debt underwriting. But I thought it did a little bit better. I just thought maybe there was a balance between the liquidity and the rates coming down, getting some deals done in the particular fourth quarter.

這很有道理。從債務承銷情況來看，情況稍微好一點。關於流動性和市場開始回落的討論很多，但我猜測利率將會下降。所以我只是想平衡一下你在流動性市場和股票承銷方面看到的情況，股票承銷在估值下降的情況下遇到了麻煩，也許更多的資金湧入債務承銷。但我認為它做得更好一點。我只是認為也許流動性和利率下降之間存在平衡，從而在特定的第四季度完成一些交易。

Overall, Marty, debt underwriting, it may have been a little bit better than people were fearing, but it still was not exactly what I would call a strong environment by any stretch of the imagination. And even -- and that's pretty much consistent almost throughout the year. Market wallets in debt capital market were pretty much down 29% during the quarter. So again, maybe not as bad as people thought about, but it was still a pretty dramatic reduction. Equity markets were down. Wallet was down about 36% in the quarter year-over-year and debt, about 29%. So yes, equities were down a little bit more than debt. But we're still talking about some pretty significant drop-offs in market wallets fourth quarter '18 compared to fourth quarter 2017.

總的來說，馬蒂，債務承銷的情況可能比人們擔心的要好一點，但無論如何，它仍然不是我所說的強勁環境。甚至 — — 幾乎全年都是如此。本季度，債務資本市場的資金總額下降了 29%。所以，也許沒有人們想像的那麼糟糕，但仍然是一個相當大的減少。股票市場下跌。本季錢包年減約 36%，債務下降約 29%。所以，是的，股票的跌幅比債券的跌幅更大。但我們仍在討論 2018 年第四季與 2017 年第四季相比市場錢包出現相當顯著的下降。

Then lastly, a more global question. If you look about and think about this, where we're seeing valuations right now, in particular your valuation being below tangible book value. So we take -- let's say take off the table recession or not because I think that is the biggest part of the question and assume, as you all kind of foreshadowed as well as our models foreshadowed, that we're not heading into that recession, unless we talk ourselves into it, then it really becomes returns versus your cost of equity. As long as you're being able to improve returns like you have, and I think we've kind of crossed that threshold of cost of equity. But just wanted to make sure, where do you kind of peg that cost of equity? And do you see, in your mind, that you are kind of building that excess return? And if you're not going into recession and you're generating excess returns, then a discount to tangible book value is definitely not reasonable at this point.

最後，一個更全球化的問題。如果你觀察並思考一下，我們現在看到的估值，特別是你的估值低於有形帳面價值。因此，我們假設——讓我們假設經濟衰退是否會結束，因為我認為這是問題的最大部分，並假設，正如你們所有人以及我們的模型所預示的那樣，我們不會陷入經濟衰退，除非我們自己說服自己，那麼它實際上就變成了回報與股權成本的對比。只要你能夠像以前一樣提高回報，我認為我們已經跨越了股權成本的門檻。但只是想確認一下，您如何確定股權成本？您是否在心裡認為自己正在創造超額回報？如果你沒有陷入衰退，而且還能獲得超額回報，那麼此時對有形帳面價值的折扣肯定是不合理的。

Yes. We think we've clearly crossed that. So the 10.9% has been referenced. Again, call it a circa 10% cost of equity. So we think we're above that. And clearly, as we execute against the trajectory this year to 12%, obviously clearly above that and above 12%, 13%-plus and beyond.

是的。我們認為我們已經明確跨越了這一界限。因此，10.9% 已被引用。再次，我們稱其為大約 10% 的股權成本。所以我們認為我們已經超越了這一點。顯然，當我們按照今年 12% 的軌跡執行時，顯然會明顯高於這個數字，超過 12%、13% 甚至更高。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Usdin with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ken Usdin。

Can I just ask one question on lending. It looked like you guys, like the industry, saw really good growth especially in -- on the North America side and EMEA, especially in corporate banking, and it looks like some was in the Markets business. Can you just give us some color on was that, in your view, just core underlying economic improvement akin to like you talked about earlier? Was some of it related to the market disconnect and perhaps might be fleeting and kind of was on balance sheet, off balance sheet? How would you just help us understand this big surge in Corporate Lending that you guys saw this quarter?

我可以問一個關於借貸的問題嗎？看起來你們，就像這個行業一樣，看到了非常好的成長，特別是在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區，特別是在企業銀行業務方面，看起來有些是在市場業務方面。您能否給我們簡單介紹一下，在您看來，這是否只是類似於您之前談到的核心潛在經濟改善？其中有些是否與市場脫節有關，也許可能是短暫的，並且在某種程度上是資產負債表內還是資產負債表外的？您如何幫助我們理解本季企業貸款的大幅成長？

Yes. When you look at the Corporate Lending, Corporate Lending, I think if I -- it grew about 2% sequentially, it's about up 6%. I'm talking about the average balances that we give you in the back of the earnings deck. And that loan growth was pretty much spread across various components. I'd say that overall, there was still good corporate demand for loans. We saw good corporate demand. It did range a little bit different by geography and how we chose to address it. We had a lot of strong client demand in Asia, for instance. And yet, if you look, you'll see that our Asia loans were actually down sequentially and year-over-year. And that's just because that demand was at spreads that we didn't feel were appropriate, and so we just chose not to participate. On some of the things that we did do in our, say, TTS business, where we saw that the spreads didn't quite meet our hurdle rate, we still originated the loans but we originated them for distribution. So again, pretty good demand. There is -- in the markets area that you mentioned, a lot of that growth is driven by some year-end community reinvestment act lending. That's where we do -- that's the segment of the business where we do our community reinvestment act. But there's also an element of some residential warehouse lending that is in there that we would expect then to clear out some time in the first quarter as securitizations are executed.

是的。當你查看企業貸款、企業貸款時，我認為如果它環比增長約 2%，那麼它就會增長約 6%。我說的是收益報告中給出的平均餘額。貸款成長基本上分散在各個部分。我認為總體而言，企業對貸款的需求仍然良好。我們看到了良好的企業需求。它的範圍確實因地理位置和我們選擇解決它的方式而略有不同。例如，我們在亞洲有很多強勁的客戶需求。然而，如果你仔細觀察，你會發現我們的亞洲貸款實際上比去年同期和同比都在下降。那隻是因為我們認為這種需求的價差不合適，所以我們選擇不參與。就我們在 TTS 業務中所做的一些事情而言，我們發現利差沒有完全達到我們的最低收益率，我們仍然發放貸款，但我們發放貸款是為了分配。所以，需求量還是相當不錯的。在您提到的市場領域，很大一部分的成長是由一些年終社區再投資法案貸款所推動。這就是我們所做的事——這是我們進行社區再投資行動的業務部分。但我們預計，隨著證券化的實施，其中還包含一些住宅倉儲貸款，這些貸款將在第一季的某個時候清空。

Got it. And John, as a follow-up, you mentioned some pockets where spreads are tight. How would you just characterize the overall commercial side lending environment out there? Is there an opportunity to take back some market share away from the nonbank segments that have been tough for the whole industry? And are you guys seeing some of those opportunities?

知道了。約翰，作為後續問題，您提到了一些價差較小的地區。您如何描述目前整體的商業借貸環境？是否有機會從非銀行部門手中奪回一些對整個行業來說都很艱難的市場份額？你們是否看到了其中的一些機會？

I'd say yes. But don't forget, I think a lot of those opportunities are going to be in what I would consider to be the small to medium type of operations. And we're not a big player in what we would consider to be the CCB business, the commercial aspect of it. We certainly are growing in that business, but it's not a large enough segment for us that would necessarily drive a significant amount of loan growth in 2019.

我認為是的。但別忘了，我認為很多這樣的機會都存在於我認為的中小型營運中。我們在我們認為的 CCB 業務，即其商業方面，並不是一個重要的參與者。我們在該業務上確實在成長，但對我們來說，該業務的規模還不夠大，不足以在 2019 年推動大量的貸款成長。

Your next question is from the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

John, I can't believe we can't ask you questions on this call next quarter.

約翰，我不敢相信我們下個季度不能在電話會議上向你提問。

You can. I just won't answer.

你可以。我只是不回答。

Terrible. Good luck and enjoy. We're going to miss you.

糟糕的。祝你好運，玩得開心。我們會想念你的。

You're going to like Mark a lot more. He's a lot more user friendly than I am so...

你會更喜歡馬克。他比我更用戶友好，所以......

I don't know. All right. I've enjoyed your non-user friendliness actually. Maybe we could just -- my last question for you here is around the outlook for the long-term RoTCE. And I know on this call we spent a lot of time talking about outlook and the plus points that we have for '19. And I'm just thinking as I -- because we do model out next several years, you've mentioned in the past the 16% that you put out there a couple quarters ago, with 14% plus 2% for tax reform. But maybe you could give us a sense of are there -- is there anything incremental to how you think about what the drivers are of that 16% beyond what we discussed as drivers for the 12% for next year?

我不知道。好的。事實上，我很享受你的非用戶友善性。也許我們可以——我要問您的最後一個問題是關於長期 RoTCE 的前景。我知道在這次電話會議上我們花了很多時間討論展望以及我們對 2019 年的優勢。我只是在想——因為我們確實模擬了未來幾年，你在過去提到幾個季度前提出的 16%，其中 14% 加上 2% 用於稅收改革。但也許您可以讓我們了解一下——除了我們討論的明年 12% 的驅動因素之外，您認為這 16% 的驅動因素還有什麼其他變化嗎？

Well, I think, Mark laid out a host -- I laid out some drivers, and I think Mark commented on them earlier as well. But again, we laid out that 16% as tax rates are -- we're finding our way to a lower effective tax rate than we had originally thought that we'd be able to achieve, and I think that there's still some additional work that we can do there. But outside of that, it's going to come down to this core element of improving net efficiency ratio, seeing better growth in the consumer business and the accrual businesses. We're already seeing that in the ICG. Just think about the net interest rate, the net interest revenue outlook that we just talked about and all of the growth now that is coming out of those businesses. You've seen that core accrual revenue grow $4 billion year-over-year. We talked about the fact that masking that has been some underlying impacts in that fee-driven revenue, the noninterest revenue that we think now we've lapped. So I don't think there's anything new that needs to be done in order to get to that 16%, but I think there's a whole series of opportunities that Mark and the team are going to continue to unearth.

嗯，我認為，馬克列出了一些驅動程序，我認為馬克之前也對它們進行了評論。但是，我們再次指出，16% 的稅率是——我們正在尋找比我們最初認為能夠實現的更低的有效稅率的方法，我認為我們還可以在這方面做一些額外的工作。但除此之外，它還將歸結為提高淨效率比率這一核心要素，以實現消費者業務和應計業務的更好成長。我們已經在 ICG 中看到了這一點。想想我們剛才談到的淨利率、淨利息收入前景以及現在這些業務帶來的所有成長。您已經看到核心應計收入年增 40 億美元。我們討論了掩蓋這一事實，這對費用驅動的收入以及我們認為現在已經超越的非利息收入產生了一些潛在影響。因此，我認為不需要做任何新的事情就可以達到 16% 的目標，但我認為馬克和他的團隊將繼續發掘一系列的機會。

One question there is on the provision line. And I know you indicated the 3.25%, 5.25% range for the card. Does -- the comments around provision, should I take away from that, that you feel that you are at normalized provision levels for your book at this stage?

關於供給線有個問題。我知道您指出了該卡的利率範圍是 3.25% 至 5.25%。關於供應的評論，我是否應該從中得出這樣的結論：您覺得目前您的書的供應水平已經達到正常水平了？

At this stage, we're at normalized provisions in consumer. I'd say that 2018 was a bit of a great -- a very good year for corporate credit. The fourth quarter, I think, is probably more indicative of where you will see the loss -- the overall cost of credit for ICG. But we're certainly not looking at any sort of significant ramp-up in cost of credit over the next couple of years, other than as loan portfolios continue to grow and season, you're going to get some natural increase. But those loss rates, we feel pretty good about those loss rates.

目前，我們已為消費者提供規範化的規定。我想說 2018 年對企業信貸來說是非常棒的一年。我認為，第四季可能更能說明損失在哪裡——ICG 的整體信貸成本。但我們肯定不會看到未來幾年信貸成本出現任何顯著上漲，除非隨著貸款組合的不斷增長和季節性變化，會出現一些自然的增長。但是這些損失率，我們對這些損失率感覺相當不錯。

And as you think about the segments and the geographies for hitting these targets into 2020 or maybe the long term, I call that, like beyond 2020, I guess. But as you hit what you're looking for in the U.S. retail card, do you migrate more capital towards emerging markets? Do you migrate more capital to Mexico and Asia, which have been growing faster? Or do you feel like this current mix is -- you can hit the 16% with the current mix?

當您考慮在 2020 年或長期內實現這些目標的細分市場和地區時，我稱之為 2020 年以後。但是，當您在美國零售領域獲得想要的東西時，您是否會將更多的資本轉移到新興市場？你們是否會將更多資本轉移到成長更快的墨西哥和亞洲？還是您覺得目前的組合可以達到 16% 的目標？

Yes. I mean, when we put together the targets, it reflected where we thought we'd see the opportunity, so continued momentum out of Mexico, momentum out of Asia, albeit, as John has described, we're seeing some pressure in the retail banking part of the business, particularly in investments. And so as you would imagine, we're constantly looking at the client demand that's out there juxtaposed against returns and growth opportunities and recalibrating or reallocating resources accordingly. But at this point in time, I'd say that mix that we talked about then in terms of needing to close the gap on the consumer side and 100 basis points or so of improvement on the ICG side is still where we think things are heading. I guess the final point I'd make on that is, as you saw in the fourth quarter, where we see pressure in the business, i.e. we saw pressure in fixed income in particular, you'll see us manage the balance sheet. We brought risk-weighted assets down. We ended with risk-weighted assets of $1.170 trillion versus the $1.196 trillion last quarter. And in this case, you saw our CET1 ratio go up to 11.90%.

是的。我的意思是，當我們把目標放在一起時，它反映了我們認為我們會看到機會的地方，因此墨西哥的勢頭持續，亞洲的勢頭持續，儘管正如約翰所描述的，我們看到零售銀行業務部分面臨一些壓力，特別是在投資方面。正如您所想像的，我們一直在關注客戶需求與回報和成長機會，並相應地重新調整或重新分配資源。但目前，我想說，我們當時談到的需要縮小消費者方面的差距以及 ICG 方面 100 個基點左右的改善仍然是我們認為事情的發展方向。我想我要說的最後一點是，正如你在第四季度看到的那樣，我們看到了業務壓力，即我們尤其看到了固定收益的壓力，你會看到我們在管理資產負債表。我們降低了風險加權資產。我們的風險加權資產最終為 1.170 兆美元，而上一季為 1.196 兆美元。在這種情況下，您會看到我們的 CET1 比率上升至 11.90%。

Yes. And I know we'll get the VAR numbers in the 10-Q, 10-K, and so I assume we'll see some reflection of that there as well. Anything in rates in fixed income? I know we talked through a lot of high yield spread, credit widening and how that's not really impacting you much. But I'm just wondering on the rate side and the volatility that existed in rates.

是的。我知道我們會在 10-Q、10-K 中獲得 VAR 數字，因此我認為我們也會在那裡看到一些反映。固定收益利率方面有問題嗎？我知道我們討論了很多高收益利差、信貸擴大以及這些實際上不會對你造成太大影響的問題。但我只是對利率方面以及利率存在的波動感到疑惑。

Rate -- when you take a look at the decline in FICC revenues, most of it was centered in G10 rates, so that was a big driver of the year-over-year decline in FICC. When you look at it -- and you can see it in the supplement, I think. The -- when you look, spread products year-over-year were off by 3%. Now remember, we had a miserable fourth quarter last year in spread products. So on a relative basis, it was kind of an easy comp. But the bulk of the year-over-year decline is in rates and currencies, and within that, most of the decline is centered in G10 rates.

利率——當你查看 FICC 收入的下降時，你會發現大部分下降都集中在 G10 利率上，因此這是 FICC 同比下降的一個重要驅動因素。當你看到它時——我想你可以在補充材料中看到它。你看一下，價差產品比去年同期下降了 3%。請記住，去年第四季我們的價差產品表現慘淡。因此，相對而言，這是一個簡單的比較。但同比下降主要體現在利率和貨幣方面，其中，大部分下降集中在 G10 利率上。

Right. And there was that one-off that was reported post the Goldman conference. But that was in your Goldman conference comments, I would think, right?

正確的。高盛會議後也通報了這起一次性事件。但我想那是你在高盛會議評論中提到的，對嗎？

That was embedded in the guidance that I gave at Goldman, absolutely. But even with -- even taking that loss out, Fixed Income would still be down mid-teens year-over-year. And again, the loss really in G10 rates.

這絕對是我在高盛給予的指導中的內容。但即使扣除這些損失，固定收益仍將年減百分之十幾。再次，G10 利率確實出現了損失。

So then last is just -- I got a question this morning on the PG&E utility company that suggested that they might be reporting bankruptcy this year, filing for bankruptcy this week. You have some exposure to them. Could you just talk us through how you deal with those kind of events? I know we talked through Sears earlier.

那麼最後一個問題是——今天早上我收到了關於 PG&E 公用事業公司的一個問題，有人說他們可能會在今年申報破產，並在本週申請破產。你對他們有一些了解。您能跟我們講講您是如何處理這類事件的嗎？我知道我們之前討論過西爾斯。

Yes. I mean, obviously, we don't comment on -- specifically on any client. But in general, we have a very strict risk appetite framework that we apply. You see that reflected in the overall statistics for our corporate book, which is in excess of 80% investment grade. So any exposure that we would have to any type of company that you're reading about is certainly going to be manageable.

是的。我的意思是，顯然我們不會對任何客戶發表評論。但總的來說，我們採用非常嚴格的風險偏好框架。您可以看到，我們公司帳簿的整體統計數據反映出了這一點，即投資等級超過 80%。因此，我們對您正在閱讀的任何類型的公司所承擔的風險肯定都是可控的。

Okay. Well, John, great working with you. And Mark, looking forward to it.

好的。好吧，約翰，很高興和你合作。馬克，非常期待。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Betsy.

謝謝，貝琪。

Your next question is from the line of Brian Kleinhanzl with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Brian Kleinhanzl。

A quick question on the tax rate. When you gave the updated guidance at the end of '18, you had said that 2020 was expected to be effectively lower than what it was in 2019, even though tax rate's down from 24% to less than 24%. I mean, does that same relationship hold even though you've dropped down the tax rate guidance and now you've got 23% for '19? Are you still expecting '20 to below 23%?

關於稅率的一個快速問題。當您在 2018 年底給予更新的指導意見時，您曾表示，儘管稅率從 24% 降至 24% 以下，但預計 2020 年的實際水準將低於 2019 年。我的意思是，即使你已經降低了稅率指導並且現在 19 年的稅率為 23%，這種關係是否仍然成立？您仍預期 20 年成長率將低於 23% 嗎？

Well, let's leave it at, at least equal to that 23% for '19 until we're ready to come out with anything further. But again, as we indicated in the guidance, we do think that there are opportunities that we have to go lower than the 23%. We're not prepared to give guidance on that yet.

好吧，讓我們將其保留在至少與 19 年的 23% 相同的水平，直到我們準備好推出進一步的消息。但正如我們在指南中所指出的，我們確實認為有機會將這一比例降至 23% 以下。我們尚未準備好對此提供指導。

Okay. And then the other question was on your 2020 targets, I mean, you have that 3% revenue CAGR kind of embedded in there to get to those targets. But since you missed the revenue growth this year, you're really kind of looking at now needing 4% in the next 2 years to still stay at a 3% for the full time period. So is that kind of how you're thinking about it? And how dependent is hitting those 2020 targets on revenue growth alone?

好的。然後另一個問題是關於您的 2020 年目標，我的意思是，您已經將 3% 的收入複合年增長率嵌入其中以實現這些目標。但由於你錯過了今年的收入成長，你現在實際上需要在未來兩年內實現 4% 的成長才能在整個時間內保持 3% 的成長速度。那麼，您是這麼想的嗎？實現 2020 年目標在多大程度上僅依賴收入成長？

So when you look at that -- as we described it at Investor Day, Brian, we talked about a number of levers, right, that it was the combination of single-digit revenue growth, good expense discipline, reasonable cost of credit and obviously, significant capital return. And so we talked about the levers here as we went through. One is, obviously, the revenue momentum is going on in parts of our businesses, the more annuity like. We spoke to the expense saves. So the $200 million manifesting itself to $500 million to $600 million and then another $500 million to $600 million . Earlier on in the year, John had talked about that we're actually outperforming on the expense front and we could get an incremental couple hundred million dollars of expense saves that would come through. Obviously, we talked about the legacy assets piece. We talked about FDIC surcharge. We talked about the tax rate. And again, we feel confident -- again, we don't have scenarios or anything yet, but feel good about capital returns and as we look to the future, the 11.9% down to 11.5% and the combination of earnings, DTA utilization, which we don't talk about much more but it's there, and it's reasonably significant and obviously, continuing to close that gap between 11.9% and 11.5 % or wherever that number is. So we think we've got a number of levers that we can pull as we go forward.

所以當你看到這一點時——正如我們在投資者日所描述的那樣，布萊恩，我們討論了許多槓桿，對吧，這是個位數的收入增長、良好的費用紀律、合理的信貸成本以及顯然可觀的資本回報的結合。我們在進行過程中討論了這裡的槓桿。顯然，我們的部分業務的收入動能正在增強，更像年金業務。我們討論了節省的費用。所以，這2億美元最後變成了5億到6億美元，然後再變成5億到6億美元。今年早些時候，約翰曾說過，我們在支出方面的表現實際上非常出色，我們可以獲得數億美元的增量支出節省。顯然，我們討論了遺留資產部分。我們討論了聯邦存款保險公司 (FDIC) 附加費。我們討論了稅率。再次，我們感到有信心 - 再次，我們還沒有情景或任何東西，但對資本回報感到樂觀，展望未來，11.9％下降到11.5％以及收益的組合，DTA利用率，我們不會談論太多，但它就在那裡，而且相當重要，顯然，繼續縮小11.9％和11.5％之間的差距，或者無論這個數字是多少。因此，我們認為，我們在前進的過程中可以利用多種槓桿。

Okay. Just one last one. You said that you're expecting, I guess, again, fewer rate hikes in '19 versus '18. So how do you think about the deposit betas if there are less rate hikes?

好的。只剩最後一個了。您說，我猜您預計 2019 年的升息次數會比 2018 年減少。那麼，如果升息次數減少，您如何看待存款貝塔係數？

Well, deposit betas are likely -- certainly, on the retail side, they're likely to continue to increase into '19 even if there are no further rate hikes. And we -- in our plans, we're assuming that there's one rate hike in '19. But we still are assuming that there's going to be some increase in retail deposit betas. And if we look back at the last time rates increased, deposit betas -- retail deposit betas continued to increase for some time after the last rate increase. We have seen stabilization on the betas on the corporate deposits, and there may be some continued pressure upward there but much less so. To the extent there is going to be any, I think, large moves on betas, it will be on the retail side, and that's, again, baked into all the guidance that we've given.

嗯，存款貝塔係數很可能——當然，在零售方面，即使沒有進一步加息，它們也可能會在 2019 年繼續增加。在我們的計劃中，我們假設 2019 年會有一次升息。但我們仍然假設零售存款貝塔係數會增加。如果我們回顧上次升息的情況，存款貝塔係數——零售存款貝塔係數在上次升息後持續上升了一段時間。我們已經看到企業存款的貝塔係數趨於穩定，並且可能繼續存在上行壓力，但幅度會小得多。我認為，如果測試版有任何重大的變動，那將是零售方面的變化，而且，這已經融入我們提供的所有指導中。

Your next question is from the line of Saul Martinez with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的索爾·馬丁內斯 (Saul Martinez)。

A couple quick ones hopefully. First, more of a geography question. On the FDIC surcharge benefit of about $140 million, $150 million, how is that distributed between North American consumer and ICG? Is it -- is the vast majority of it in North American consumer? Is there a portion that also migrated to ICG?

希望有幾個快速的。首先，這更多的是一個地理問題。FDIC 附加費收益約為 1.4 億美元、1.5 億美元，在北美消費者和 ICG 之間是如何分配的？其中絕大多數是北美消費者嗎？是否有一部分也遷移到 ICG了？

No, no, no. Actually, that $140 million -- the $140 million is not separately isolated within our -- the overall FDIC assessment that we get. So we apportion that out as we do with all the other aspects of the FDIC assessment, and it goes to -- it goes globally to all of our businesses around the world. So if you want to think about it, it's actually 2/3 of the overall FDIC assessment ends up in ICG and only 1/3 in consumer. So it would be less than 1/3 of that benefit that shows up in U.S. consumer.

不，不，不。實際上，這 1.4 億美元——這 1.4 億美元並不是單獨列在我們獲得的 FDIC 整體評估中的。因此，我們像分配 FDIC 評估的所有其他方面一樣，將其分配出去，並將其分配給我們在全球的所有業務。所以如果你想想一下，實際上 FDIC 整體評估的 2/3 最終進入了 ICG，只有 1/3 進入了消費者。因此，美國消費者獲得的收益還不到該收益的三分之一。

Okay. So it's allocated roughly in line with the overall distribution of deposits essentially?

好的。那麼它的分配基本上與存款的整體分佈大致一致嗎？

No, it's actually allocated based upon a much more complicated formula than that because it's not deposits that give rise to the assessment. There's a whole series of other risk indicators that actually drives your assessment. And so we actually apportion that assessment among the businesses based upon their contribution to the risk factors that go into the assessment calculation itself.

不，它實際上是根據比這更複雜的公式進行分配的，因為不是存款導致了評估。實際上，還有一系列其他風險指標可以推動您的評估。因此，我們實際上是根據企業對評估計算本身的風險因素的貢獻來分配評估。

Okay, got it. That's helpful. And secondly, I guess, a much broader question. Any updated thoughts on the political dynamics in Mexico? It does seem like there has been at least a bit more recent movement by the government to engage with the banking system in a more constructive way, and I'm just curious if you guys sense that. And just your overall level of optimism that maybe things aren't necessarily getting better from a political standpoint, but at the very least, there's no signs of deterioration in terms of the policy landscape.

好的，明白了。這很有幫助。其次，我想，這是一個更廣泛的問題。對墨西哥的政治動態有什麼最新看法嗎？看起來政府最近至少採取了一些舉措，以更具建設性的方式與銀行系統互動，我只是好奇你們是否感覺到了這一點。而您總體上還是比較樂觀的，從政治角度來看情況可能不一定會變得更好，但至少從政策格局來看沒有惡化的跡象。

Yes. So we're early, right? We've -- the president's been in office since December 1. I think he and his team continue to find their feet. And I think what you're referencing most recently was that they've kind of come out and they've been very clear in terms of wanting to become more inclusive in terms of banking. But in there, they've involved the finance ministry, they've involved the local bank and banking associations in terms of, I think, working quite consciously and artfully to craft that message in a constructive way. So it's early, but I would say that the interactions that we've seen have been positive. And I think the underlying piece of that is we've -- as was referenced in some of the conversations before, we've got an environment there right now where we've got consumer sentiment really at or near all-time highs. And so you've got an engaged consumer, and I think they're very mindful to why -- to try and want to keep that consumer engaged.

是的。所以我們來得早，對吧？自 12 月 1 日總統就職以來，我認為他和他的團隊正在繼續站穩腳跟。我認為您最近提到的是，他們已經表明了他們希望在銀行業務方面變得更加包容的意願。但我認為，他們讓財政部、當地銀行和銀行協會都參與進來，有意識地、巧妙地以建設性的方式傳達這一訊息。雖然現在還為時過早，但我想說的是，我們所看到的互動是積極的。我認為其中的根本原因是——正如之前的一些對話中所提到的，我們目前所處的環境是消費者信心處於或接近歷史最高水平。因此，您擁有一個參與的消費者，我認為他們非常清楚為什麼——試圖並希望保持該消費者的參與。

Your next question is from the line of Gerard Cassidy with RBC.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Gerard Cassidy。

Can you share with us -- John, you touched on how the growth in TTS this quarter was due to wider spreads and also higher volumes and transactions. If you had to rank the 3 reasons why you had the better growth year-over-year, which one of those contributes the most of that growth?

您能否與我們分享一下——約翰，您提到了本季 TTS 的成長是如何歸因於利差擴大以及交易量和交易量增加的。如果您必須對為什麼貴公司同比成長更好的 3 個原因進行排序，那麼哪一個原因對這種成長的貢獻最大？

I -- they all contribute. And it's -- I'm trying to rank them. I think it's actually, it's the volumes that are driving things more than anything else. The deposit volume and the transaction volumes would be the ones that are driving it. Rates is having an impact, but it's really the volumes that we're seeing in the deposit growth as well as the transaction volumes that are driving the revenues. And those transaction volumes are -- they're spread between things like commercial cards, just the traditional interaction that we've got on moving cash. But there's a whole series of working capital solutions that we're rolling out. So that's one of the reasons why we feel really good about the long-term growth prospects of TTS, because, again, it's not just being driven by one specific thing that if that stops, suddenly all the air goes out of the balloon. It's a -- it's really a business that has got multifaceted growth engines at this point in time.

我——他們都做出了貢獻。而且——我正在嘗試對它們進行排名。我認為事實上，銷量才是推動事情發展最重要的因素。存款量和交易量是推動這項進程的因素。利率確實有影響，但實際上我們看到的存款成長量以及交易量才是推動營收成長的因素。這些交易量分佈在商業卡等事物中，只是我們在轉移現金時進行的傳統互動。但我們正在推出一系列營運資金解決方案。這就是我們對 TTS 的長期成長前景感到非常樂觀的原因之一，因為，再說一次，它不僅僅是由某一特定事物驅動的，如果這件事停止了，氣球裡的所有空氣就會突然洩掉。這是——目前這確實是一個擁有多方面成長引擎的企業。

And John, how is -- I mean, you've got such a global footprint here in this area. New business or new client growth, is that a contributor each year as well that actually moves the dial? Or is it just a Steady Eddie 1% to 3% or 4% new customer?

約翰，您在這個領域的全球影響力如何？新業務或新客戶的成長，是否也是每年推動業績成長的因素？還是只是 Steady Eddie 1% 到 3% 或 4% 的新客戶？

No, no, no. There's definitely -- I don't have the number in my head, but we don't have 100% penetration on our corporate client base with TTS. As strange as that may be, as good as we are, we don't have 100%. So we have the ability to introduce that TTS product set into new clients every year, and we are doing that. And then once you're into new clients, what you're likely to get is you get one of their regions or maybe several of their countries, and therefore, there's the ability then to grow into multiple countries, multiple regions. And it's been a lot of that. A lot of that is what has fueled the volume growth in TTS. I think overall, Gerard, we've got like something like a low double-digit market share in TTS. Maybe it's 10% or 11%, whatever it is. It's relatively small, and there still is a sizable growth opportunity in TTS.

不，不，不。肯定有——我心裡沒有確切的數字，但我們的企業客戶群中 TTS 的滲透率還沒有達到 100%。儘管這可能很奇怪，儘管我們很優秀，但我們還沒有達到 100%。因此，我們有能力每年將 TTS 產品套裝介紹給新客戶，而我們正在這樣做。一旦你有了新客戶，你很可能會得到他們的一個地區或幾個國家，因此，你就有能力發展到多個國家、多個地區。這樣的事還有很多。其中很大一部分是推動 TTS 交易量成長的因素。傑拉德，我認為總體而言，我們在 TTS 的市佔率大約是兩位數。也許是 10% 或 11%，不管是多少。它相對較小，並且 TTS 仍有相當大的成長機會。

And John, to your point, it's not just growing with new multinational clients but also with smaller clients that are looking to go global. And given the breadth of our franchise, we are positioned to take advantage of both of those opportunities and serve both types of those clients.

約翰，正如您所說，我們的成長不僅在於新的跨國客戶，還在於那些希望走向全球的小客戶。鑑於我們的特許經營範圍廣泛，我們有能力利用這兩個機會並為這兩種類型的客戶提供服務。

Very good. And shifting gears on you guys. Can you give us any color on Investment Banking pipelines? Obviously, we know what happened in the fourth quarter, and December in particular. What are you guys expecting or seeing for the upcoming quarter in those pipelines?

非常好。並向你們轉變。可以為我們介紹一下投資銀行管道嗎？顯然，我們知道第四季度，特別是 12 月發生了什麼。你們對於下一季的這些管道有何期待或展望？

Pipeline remains, I'd say, very, very strong, and client dialogue remains strong. And we've got a very healthy backlog going into 2019. We just need the right environment to execute in.

我想說，通路仍然非常非常強大，客戶對話也仍然強勁。2019 年我們的積壓訂單量非常充足。我們只是需要合適的環境來執行。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Right, okay. And John, circling back to your comments on the G10 rates business, how it really fell off. When you look at it by customer segment that you trade with, was it more the market traders, meaning hedge funds? Or was it long only or sovereign wealth funds? Who really saw falloff the most from your customers?

好的，好的。約翰，回到你對 G10 利率業務的評論，它是如何真正下降的。當您從與您進行交易的客戶群來看時，它是否更多的是市場交易者，也就是對沖基金？還是只做多頭或主權財富基金？誰真正見證了客戶流失最嚴重？

Early in the quarter, I'd say it was fairly concentrated a little bit more in the investor clients. But as the quarter proceeded, we saw both investor and corporate clients move to the sidelines.

在本季度初，我想說它更多地集中在投資者客戶身上。但隨著本季的進展，我們看到投資者和企業客戶都轉向了觀望。

I see. Very good. And echoing others, we're going to really miss your candor and frankness. And good luck in those retirement years.

我懂了。非常好。就像其他人一樣，我們真的會懷念您的坦率和坦誠。祝你退休後一切順利。

Thanks, Gerard. Really appreciate it. It's been great working with you.

謝謝，傑拉德。真的很感激。和你一起工作很愉快。

Your next question is from the line of Erika Najarian with Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Erika Najarian。

Sorry to prolong this, but I actually had a question. Thank you so much for all the guidance that you've already given us on the revenue outlook and expenses. And I heard you loud and clear, John, that the efficiency improvement in '19 will be wider than the 90 basis points that we saw in '18. Assuming that low 50 sort of starts at 53% and the top of the range for 2020, I'm wondering, is the improvement in efficiency in '19 going to be about equal to '20? Or is it going to be accelerating improvement into 2020, sort of like you're implying what had happened in '18 and '19, if that question is clear?

抱歉拖延了這麼久，但我確實有一個問題。非常感謝您就收入前景和支出給予我們的所有指導。約翰，我清楚地聽到了你的聲音，19 年的效率提升將比 18 年的 90 個基點更為顯著。假設 50 的低點從 53% 開始，而 2020 年的最高點則是 50，我想知道 19 年的效率提升是否會與 20 年大致相同？或者，到 2020 年，情況是否會加速改善，就像您暗示的 18 年和 19 年發生的事情一樣，如果這個問題清楚的話？

It's going to be accelerating. This is Mark. It's going to be accelerating in 2020.

這一進程將會加速。這是馬克。2020 年這一進程將會加速。

Okay. And one more -- go ahead, John.

好的。還有一個——請說，約翰。

If you looked at what we just talked from the expense side of things, where we talked about a recognition of $200 million this year going to $500 million, $600 million next year, of going to an incremental $500 million or $600 million in '20. So as the investment spend comes to maturity, our ability to accelerate on the expense side manifests itself.

如果你看一下我們剛剛從費用方面討論的內容，我們談到了今年確認的 2 億美元，明年將增加到 5 億美元、6 億美元，到 2020 年將增加到 5 億美元或 6 億美元。因此，隨著投資支出的成熟，我們在支出方面加速的能力就會顯現出來。

Got it. Most investors, just a quick follow-up question, are investing -- are expecting that the Fed will not raise rate anymore in 2019. Given the different tailwinds that you noted for net interest revenues, I'm wondering what the downside risk is to that $2 billion in growth if the Fed's last rate hike was December.

知道了。大多數投資者（只是想快速提出一個後續問題）都在投資——預計聯準會在 2019 年不會再升息。鑑於您提到的淨利息收入的不同順風因素，我想知道，如果聯準會上次升息是在 12 月，那麼這 20 億美元的成長將面臨什麼樣的下行風險。

Yes. Go ahead, Mark.

是的。繼續吧，馬克。

Yes. This is Mark. So I mean, look, in the past, in 2017, we talked about a roughly $100 million benefit per quarter for a 25 basis point Fed rate hike. And if you think about, for the most recent rate hike in 2018, we're only assuming a benefit of about $55 million a quarter. And so my point in that, and all of this is consistent with our U.S. dollar IRA disclosures in the K and the Q, we're not heavily dependent on this midyear 2019 hike in order to deliver on our outlook for 2019.

是的。這是馬克。所以我的意思是，看看過去，在 2017 年，我們談到聯準會升息 25 個基點每季將帶來約 1 億美元的收益。如果你考慮一下，對於 2018 年最近一次升息，我們只假設每季的收益約為 5,500 萬美元。因此，我的觀點是，所有這些都與我們在 K 和 Q 中的美元 IRA 披露一致，我們並不嚴重依賴 2019 年中期的加息來實現 2019 年的展望。

Your next question is from the line of our Al Alevizakos with HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Al Alevizakos。

So you mentioned during the presentation that Asian wealth management was one of the weak areas in the quarter, but it doesn't really strike me as a surprise. However, I would like to know what do you think is happening, and what is your outlook for 2019? And was the weakness just because of AUM or was it something else as well? And then secondly, just wanted to confirm on your comment on equities. Excluding the one-off loss that you had previously, were the revenues down year-on-year? Because you mentioned with derivatives offset by weaker prime brokerage.

所以您在演講中提到亞洲財富管理是本季的薄弱領域之一，但這並不讓我感到驚訝。不過，我想知道您認為正在發生什麼，以及您對 2019 年的展望是什麼？這種弱點只是因為 AUM 還是還有其他原因？其次，我只是想確認您對股票的評論。除去先前的一次性損失，收入年比是否有所下降？因為您提到了衍生性商品被較弱的一級經紀業務所抵消。

So Al, let's take the second one first. On the equities, yes, the -- excluding the one loss that we talked about last year, it'd still be, as I said, down slightly year-over-year. So think of slightly being something in the single digits, low single digits, mid-single-digits type of range. And so does that get you where you need to go on the equities?

那麼 Al，我們先來討論第二個問題。就股票而言，是的，除了我們去年談到的那筆損失外，正如我所說，它仍然會比去年同期略有下降。因此，可以將其想像為略微處於個位數、低個位數、中個位數範圍內。那麼，這是否能幫助您實現股票投資的願望呢？

Yes.

是的。

I'll that as yes, okay. And then when you think about Asia, when you look at Asia, it really is just that runoff in investment revenues. And we generate -- I think I mentioned this on last quarter's call. One of the things that we're trying to rebalance in Asia is that a lot of our investment sales generate revenues on the front end as opposed to being continuing fees as the investment keeps on going. So to the extent you get periods like this where there's -- investors are not moving money into new investments, it hurts us on the fee line. Now we're converting more of those investment products in Asia into back -- more back-end loaded, more consistency, we get away from this front-loaded concept, but we haven't done that as yet. So that certainly is one of the things that is going on. And we have seen -- consistent with some of the things I talked about with trading, we have seen some pickup in investment sales in early January. But again, it's early and certainly not back to where we want it to be.

我會回答「是的，好的」。然後，當你想到亞洲時，當你觀察亞洲時，它實際上只是投資收入的流失。我們產生了——我想我在上個季度的電話會議上提到過這一點。我們在亞洲試圖重新平衡的事情之一是，我們的許多投資銷售都是在前端產生收入，而不是隨著投資的持續而產生持續的成本。因此，如果出現這樣的時期，投資者沒有將資金投入新的投資，這會對我們的費用造成損害。現在，我們正在將亞洲的更多投資產品轉換為後端加載、更一致的產品，我們擺脫了前端加載的概念，但我們尚未這樣做。這肯定是正在發生的事情之一。我們已經看到——與我談到的交易方面的一些情況一致，我們看到 1 月初投資銷售有所回升。但話說回來，現在還太早，而且肯定還沒有恢復到我們想要的狀態。

Could we say that the performance in the U.S. wealth management was particularly different in the fourth quarter compared to Asia?

是否可以說美國財富管理第四季的表現與亞洲相比有特別大的差異？

Well, Asia -- it's a much bigger wealth management business in Asia. We -- that's a business that we've been developing for several years now. The U.S., we're really only into maybe the second, maybe it's 2.5 years of really focusing on wealth management. So I think that you see similar results, but it's just the U.S. business is relatively small at this point in time.

嗯，亞洲——亞洲的財富管理業務規模要大得多。我們——這是我們多年來一直在發展的業務。在美國，我們實際上只進入了第二階段，也許是兩年半的時間真正專注於財富管理。所以我認為你會看到類似的結果，但目前美國的業務相對較小。

Excellent. Enjoy your retirement as well.

出色的。享受你的退休生活吧。

Thank you so much, Al.

非常感謝，艾爾。

Your final question is from the line of Vivek Juneja with JPMorgan.

您的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Vivek Juneja。

Sorry to hold you off longer. A couple of questions. The decline in risk-weighted assets, from -- was that all from trading? And if the markets do recover, should we expect that to go back up?

很抱歉耽誤您這麼久。有幾個問題。風險加權資產的下降－都是因為交易嗎？如果市場確實復甦，我們是否應該預期它會回升？

It's primarily concentrated in credit risk assets. The bulk of it would be in the Markets businesses, but it's fairly widespread across ICG. And it depends on when the markets and when the sentiment comes up and then what else -- where else we -- how else we deploy our capital. But if you look, you'll see that there's some variability, I'll call it, in our risk-weighted assets. And that's pretty much just dependent on client needs and customer demands.

它主要集中在信用風險資產。其中大部分將用於市場業務，但它在 ICG 中相當普遍。這取決於市場和情緒何時出現，以及我們還能在哪裡部署我們的資本。但如果你仔細觀察，你會發現我們的風險加權資產有某種可變性。這很大程度取決於客戶需求和顧客要求。

Right, okay. Because you are a regular market maker, so I would expect that, if things do come back, you would be very much there and part of it.

好的，好的。因為你是一個常規的做市商，所以我預計，如果情況真的好轉，你將會留在場內並參與其中。

Absolutely, absolutely.

絕對，絕對。

Second one, a little one, which is what is the dollar market for your wealth management revenues in Asia in 4Q '18? And what was it in 4Q '17? Because you give us the last 12 months, but it's hard to get a real sense of what the revenues actually were -- did year-on-year without the actual number for the quarter.

第二個小問題，2018 年第四季您在亞洲的財富管理收入的美元市場是多少？2017 年第四季的情況如何？因為你給了我們過去 12 個月的數據，但如果沒有該季度的實際數字，就很難真正了解實際收入是多少——與去年同期相比有多少收入。

Yes. Vivek, I don't have that number in front of me. I'll have to -- Susan will have to get back to you with something, if it's there.

是的。維韋克，我面前沒有這個號碼。我必須——蘇珊必須回覆你一些東西，如果有的話。

We'll...

出色地...

Okay. And lastly, LatAm consumer, what do you need to do to get back to positive operating leverage year-on-year, which wasn't the case this quarter?

好的。最後，拉丁美洲消費者，您需要做些什麼才能恢復到同比正的營業槓桿率，而本季的情況並非如此？

Yes. Taking a look at operating leverage quarter-to-quarter, that's...

是的。看看季度間的營業槓桿，那是…

No, year-on-year.

不，是同比。

Yes. I think if you take a look at it on a full year basis, that's a much better gauge of what you're doing in a business because -- given that you have quarters like this where you have a slight decline in the retail revenue. So I would look at the business on a full year basis. And we've been pretty consistent with positive operating leverage coming out of Mexico in particular, and we would expect to have positive operating leverage in Mexico in 2019 as well. So it's a 1 quarter.

是的。我認為，如果從全年的角度來看，這可以更好地衡量你的業務表現，因為——考慮到像這樣的季度，零售收入略有下降。所以我會從全年的角度來看業務。我們的經營槓桿一直非常積極，尤其是在墨西哥，我們預計 2019 年墨西哥的經營槓桿也將積極。所以它是 1 個季度。

But if I look at, John, full year '18 and ex the gain on the sale of the asset management business, it was essentially revenue growth and expense for the -- given your rounded numbers in constant dollars, are essentially the same. So that would say positive operating leverage?

但是，約翰，如果我看一下 2018 年全年，扣除出售資產管理業務的收益，這基本上是收入增長和支出 - 考慮到您以不變美元計算的四捨五入數字，它們基本上是相同的。那麼這是否意味著正的經營槓桿？

Well, sure, just based on the fact -- well, based on the fact that we knew that, that gain was coming, and so we paced our investment spending to take advantage of the fact that we had the gain. And so for the full year, we were still managing to positive operating leverage. Just as I'm sure that you'd want us -- if we knew that there was a large loss coming, your expectation would be that we would manage those expenses down somewhat in order to produce a better efficiency ratio and operating leverage ratio, right.

嗯，當然，只是基於這個事實——嗯，基於我們知道這個事實，收益即將到來，所以我們調整了投資支出，以利用我們已經獲得收益的事實。因此，就全年而言，我們仍然保持著正的營運槓桿。正如我確信您希望我們做的一樣——如果我們知道即將出現巨額損失，您的期望就是我們會將這些費用控制在一定水平，以便產生更好的效率比率和經營槓桿率，對吧。

Okay. All right. And good luck, John.

好的。好的。祝你好運，約翰。

Thanks a lot, Vivek.

非常感謝，Vivek。

There are no further questions. Are there any closing remarks?

沒有其他問題了。最後還有什麼要說的嗎？

Thank you all for spending the time with us this morning. As always, if there are follow-up questions, please reach out to me and my team in Investor Relations. Thank you.

感謝大家今天上午與我們共度時光。像往常一樣，如果有後續問題，請聯繫我和我的投資者關係團隊。謝謝。

This concludes today's earnings call. You may now disconnect.

今天的收益電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。