Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Burlington Stores, Inc., fourth-quarter 2024 earnings webcast call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I'd now like to hand the call over to David Glick, Group Senior Vice President, Investor Relations, and Treasurer. You may now begin.

大家好，歡迎參加伯靈頓商店公司 2024 年第四季收益網路廣播電話會議。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）現在，我想將電話轉給集團高級副總裁、投資者關係兼財務主管 David Glick。現在您就可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate everyone's participation in today's conference call to discuss Burlington's fiscal 2024 fourth-quarter operating results. Our presenters today are Michael O'Sullivan, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kristin Wolfe, our EVP and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們感謝大家參加今天的電話會議，討論伯靈頓 2024 財年第四季的營運表現。今天的演講者是我們的執行長 Michael O’Sullivan；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Kristin Wolfe。

Before I turn the call over to Michael, I would like to inform listeners that this call may not be transcribed, recorded, or broadcast without our expressed permission. A replay of the call will be available until March 13, 2025. We take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in transcripts of this call by third parties.

在我將電話轉給麥可之前，我想告知聽眾，未經我們明確許可，不得轉錄、錄製或廣播此通話。此通話重播將保留至 2025 年 3 月 13 日。對於第三方在本次通話記錄中可能出現的不準確之處，我們不承擔任何責任。

Remarks and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by Burlington Stores. Remarks made on this call concerning future expectations, events, strategies, objectives, trends, or projected financial results are subject to certain risks and uncertainties.

以下的評論和問答版權歸伯靈頓商店所有。本次電話會議上對未來預期、事件、策略、目標、趨勢或預期財務結果的評論都受到一定風險和不確定性的影響。

Actual results may differ materially from those that are projected in such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include those that are described in the company's 10-K and in other filings with the SEC, all of which are expressly incorporated herein by reference.

實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述的預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括公司 10-K 報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所述及的風險和不確定性，所有這些文件均透過引用明確納入本文。

Please note that the financial results and expectations we discuss today are on a continuing operations basis. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are included in today's press release.

請注意，我們今天討論的財務結果和預期是基於持續經營的基礎。我們今天討論的非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 指標的對帳已包含在今天的新聞稿中。

As a reminder, as indicated in this morning's press release, the financial results we discuss today are on a 13-week-versus-13-week basis for the fiscal fourth quarter and on a 52-week-versus-52-week basis for the full fiscal year of 2024.

提醒一下，正如今天早上的新聞稿所示，我們今天討論的財務結果是基於第四財季的 13 週對 13 週基礎，以及基於 2024 財年全年的 52 週對 52 週基礎。

Additionally, all profitability metrics discussed in this call exclude costs associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. These pretax costs amounted to $5 million and $6 million during the fiscal fourth quarters of 2024 and 2023, respectively, and $16 million and $18 million for the full fiscal years 2024 and 2023, respectively.

此外，本次電話會議中討論的所有獲利指標均不包括與破產租賃相關的成本。這些稅前成本在 2024 財年和 2023 財年第四季分別為 500 萬美元和 600 萬美元，在 2024 財年和 2023 財年全年分別為 1,600 萬美元和 1,800 萬美元。

Now here's Michael.

現在請聽麥可。

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I would like to cover three topics this morning. Firstly, I will discuss our fourth-quarter results. Secondly, I will comment on our full-year 2024 results. And I will use these results to provide an update on the progress that we are making towards our longer-range financial goals.

謝謝你，大衛。大家早安，感謝大家的收看。今天早上我想講三個話題。首先，我將討論我們第四季的業績。其次，我將對我們的 2024 年全年業績進行評論。我將利用這些結果來更新我們在實現長期財務目標方面所取得的進展。

Finally, I will talk about guidance for the year ahead. Then Kristin will provide additional financial details. Okay, let's start with our Q4 results. Comparable store sales for the fourth quarter increased 6%. This was well above our guidance of 0% to 2%. I would like to double-click on Q4 comp sales and provide additional color on two key factors that contributed to this strong performance.

最後，我將談談未來一年的指導。然後克里斯汀會提供更多的財務細節。好的，讓我們從第四季的業績開始。第四季同店銷售額成長6%。這遠高於我們預期的 0% 至 2%。我想雙擊第四季的可比較銷售額，並對促成這一強勁表現的兩個關鍵因素提供進一步的說明。

Firstly, in early 2024, we embarked on a strategy to elevate our assortment. In some categories and at some price points, this involved a higher mix of well-known national brands. For sure, this higher mix was important, but this strategy was not just about brands.

首先，在 2024 年初，我們開始實施提升產品組合的策略。在某些類別和某些價格點上，這涉及到更高程度的知名國家品牌組合。當然，這種更高的組合很重要，但這項策略不僅涉及品牌。

In other categories or price points, we elevated the assortment in other ways, perhaps through higher quality or a higher weight of fabric or more up-to-date fashion or more embellishment. Depending on the category or price points, these are all characteristics that the customer uses to assess value.

在其他類別或價格點上，我們透過其他方式提升了品種，可能透過更高品質或更高重量的布料或更時尚的款式或更多的裝飾。根據類別或價格點，這些都是顧客用來評估價值的特徵。

Another very important aspect of this strategy was to identify items to remove from the assortment. One of our senior merchants uses the phrase, eliminate to elevate. This means pruning items from the assortment that do not deserve to be there because the quality or the fashion or the value is just not good enough. We want everything to count.

該策略的另一個非常重要的方面是確定要從商品組合中移除的商品。我們的一位資深商人使用了“消除以提升”這個短語。這意味著要從商品組合中剔除那些不值得存在的商品，因為其品質、風格或價值不夠好。我們希望每件事都有意義。

It is also very important to make the point that this elevation strategy was pursued within the framework of a good-better-best assortment. We went after opportunities to elevate the assortment at all price points, paying close attention to the need-a-deal as well as for want-to-deal shopper. We drove this elevation strategy throughout last year, but it was most evident and powerful in the fourth quarter.

指出這項提升策略是在好-更好-最佳組合框架內實施的，這一點也非常重要。我們尋找機會提升各個價位的商品種類，密切注意需要優惠的購物者和想要優惠的購物者。我們去年全年都推行這項提升策略，但在第四季最為明顯和有力。

I interpret our 6% comp sales growth in Q4 as just the customer telling us that they approved of this strategy and really loved our assortment. The second driver of our strong Q4 performance was that we were very nimble, flexible, and responsive to trend in Q4 and throughout the fall season. Let me illustrate this by talking about the quarterly trend last year.

我認為第四季 6% 的銷售成長只是因為客戶告訴我們，他們認可這個策略並且非常喜歡我們的產品組合。我們在第四季表現強勁的第二個驅動因素是，我們在第四季和整個秋季都非常敏捷、靈活並對趨勢做出反應。讓我透過談論去年的季度趨勢來說明這一點。

In the summer, as we exited Q2, we were flying. We reported 5% comp growth for the quarter, and the trend continued to accelerate through back to school. Then it dropped off significantly due to unseasonably warm weather from mid-September onwards. These warmer temperatures hurt our sales of outerwear. And at that particular time of year, outerwear is a critical business for us.

夏天，當我們退出 Q2 時，我們正在飛翔。我們報告本季的同比增長率為 5%，並且這一趨勢在開學期間繼續加速。隨後，由於九月中旬以來天氣異常溫暖，產量大幅下降。氣溫升高影響了我們的外套銷售。在一年中的那個特定時間，外套對我們來說是一項重要的業務。

The warm weather and the weak trend persisted until mid-November. And then our business took off as the customer began to shop for holiday. I cannot overstate how pleased I am with how well we reacted to this volatility in sales. We chased the trend in back-to-school categories in the summer, then pulled back very hard on cold weather businesses from mid-September onwards, and then chased holiday businesses in late November and December.

溫暖的天氣和疲軟的趨勢一直持續到11月中旬。隨著顧客開始假日購物，我們的業務也開始起飛。我對我們對銷售波動做出的良好反應感到非常高興，這一點無論怎樣表達都不為過。我們在夏季追逐返校類別的潮流，然後從 9 月中旬開始大力削減寒冷天氣業務，然後在 11 月下旬和 12 月追逐假日業務。

This nimble and rapid execution is the essence of off-price. It is an excellent illustration of what we are trying to achieve with Burlington 2.0. We know that we will never be able to predict the future. But what we can do, using the processes, tools, and capabilities that we have built, is to react quickly and effectively to whatever happens with external traffic and the sales trend.

這種靈活、快速的執行正是折扣的精髓。它完美地詮釋了我們試圖透過伯靈頓2.0 實現的目標。我們知道我們永遠無法預測未來。但我們可以利用已建立的流程、工具和功能，對外部流量和銷售趨勢發生的任何變化做出快速有效的反應。

I'm going to move on now and talk about our results for 2024 as a whole. I would like to discuss these results within the overall context of our longer-range financial objectives. Investors will recall that in November of 2023, we shared high-level financial goals for our business through 2028. We expect to grow total sales to approximately $16 billion and to increase our operating profit to about $1.6 billion during this period.

我現在要繼續討論我們 2024 年全年的業績。我想在我們長期財務目標的整體背景下討論這些結果。投資人會記得，2023 年 11 月，我們分享了我們業務到 2028 年的高層財務目標。我們預計在此期間總銷售額將成長至約 160 億美元，營業利潤將增至約 16 億美元。

We are only one year into this five-year program, but we are very pleased and encouraged by our initial progress towards these goals. The headline is that in 2024, we achieved very strong total sales growth of 11%, and we expanded our operating margin by 100 basis points. As you will recall, there are three major drivers of our long-range model, new store openings, comp store sales growth, and operating margin expansion. I will now review the progress that we made on each of these major drivers in 2024.

這個五年計劃才開始一年，但我們對這些目標的初步進展感到非常高興和鼓舞。標題是，到 2024 年，我們的總銷售額將實現 11% 的強勁成長，並且我們的營業利潤率將提高 100 個基點。您可能還記得，我們​​的長期模型有三個主要驅動因素：新店開設、同店銷售成長和營業利潤率擴大。我現在將回顧我們在 2024 年針對每個主要驅動因素所取得的進展。

Let's start with new store openings. Our long-range model projects an average of 100 net new stores each year, plus a couple of dozen relocations of older, oversized stores. In 2024, we opened 101 net new stores, but let me dissect that number a little further. Of course, there is no such thing as a net new store.

讓我們從新店開幕開始。我們的長期模型預測，平均每年新增 100 家門市，另外還將搬遷數十家規模過大的老舊門市。2024 年，我們淨開了 101 家新店，但讓我進一步分析這個數字。當然，所謂淨新店是不存在的。

In 2024, we actually opened 147 new stores, 31 of these were relocations. And we also shuttered 15 mostly older and less productive locations. Mathematically, this equals 101 net new stores, but my point is that the full impact on the chain is much more significant. Our long-range goal is to grow and transform our store network. 147 gross new stores in 2024 represents strong progress on this transformation program.

2024 年，我們實際上開設了 147 家新店，其中 31 家是搬遷的。我們也關閉了 15 個大多較老舊且生產效率較低的工廠。從數學上來說，這相當於淨增 101 家新店，但我的觀點是，這對連鎖店的全面影響要大得多。我們的長遠目標是發展和改造我們的門市網絡。 2024年將新增147家門市，代表該轉型計畫取得了巨大進展。

Okay, let me comment on the performance of our new stores. There are a number of important relevant metrics that we track. For new stores, these include the sales volume in the opening year and the comp performance in the first few years once the store joins the comp base. For relocations, we focus on the comp sales and the productivity lift that we see in the new location.

好的，我來評論一下我們新店的表現。我們追蹤許多重要的相關指標。對於新店來說，這些包括開業當年的銷售量和店鋪加入同業基礎後頭幾年的同業表現。對於搬遷，我們關注的是新地點的銷售和生產力提升。

We are pleased with how all of these metrics are tracking. I should add that when we approve a new location, we analyze the internal rate of return based on expected sales, profitability, and CapEx. The rate of return that we are achieving on new store openings and on relocations is very attractive.

我們對所有這些指標的追蹤情況感到滿意。我應該補充一點，當我們批准一個新地點時，我們會根據預期的銷售額、獲利能力和資本支出來分析內部報酬率。我們在新店開設和搬遷過程中獲得的回報率非常有吸引力。

I will finish up on our new store program by talking about the pipeline. Of course, at this point, our plan and our schedule for new store openings in 2025 is largely set. We feel confident in our ability to open 100 net new stores this year. For 2026, the pipeline is also shaping up nicely. It is early, but at this point, I feel good about our ability to also open 100 net new stores in 2026.

我將透過討論管道來完成我們的新店計劃。當然，目前為止，我們的計畫和2025年新店開幕時間表已經基本確定了。我們有信心今年淨開100家新店。預計到 2026 年，管道建設也將順利完成。現在還為時過早，但就目前而言，我對我們能在 2026 年開設 100 家新店的能力充滿信心。

I'm going to move on now and talk about the second major driver of our long-range model, comp store sales growth. Our long-range model projects that through 2028, we should be able to achieve comp sales growth in the mid-single digits, in other words, between 4% and 6%.

我現在要繼續討論我們長期模型的第二個主要驅動力，即同店銷售額的成長。我們的長期模型預測，到 2028 年，我們應該能夠實現中等個位數的同店銷售額成長，換句話說，介於 4% 到 6% 之間。

We are pleased that in 2024, we achieved 4% comp growth, and this was on top of 4% comp growth in 2023. But we recognize that comp growth is the most difficult variable to project. There are internal and external drivers of the comp trend. We are confident about the internal drivers and our ability to execute. We have made huge improvements across our business in merchandising, stores, and supply chain.

我們很高興，2024 年我們實現了 4% 的同比增長，這是在 2023 年 4% 的增長之上的。但我們體認到，同店銷售額成長率是最難預測的變數。推動公司趨勢發展的因素有內部驅動因素和外部驅動因素。我們對內在驅動因素和執行能力充滿信心。我們的商品銷售、商店和供應鏈等業務都取得了巨大的進步。

I am also very bullish on the longer-term external prospects for the off-price segment and for our business in particular. Across retail, shoppers are voting for value. And we are very well positioned to deliver that value for our customers. But with that said, we recognize that the short-term outlook is uncertain, and it is important to plan and manage our business accordingly.

我對折扣業務以及我們業務的長期外部前景也非常看好。在零售業中，購物者都投票支持價值。我們完全有能力為客戶提供這種價值。但話雖如此，我們也意識到短期前景不確定，因此，規劃和管理我們的業務非常重要。

We will talk more about this in a moment when I discuss our thinking and our guidance for the year ahead. But before I get there, let me finish with the third major driver of our long-range model, operating margin expansion.

當我討論我們的想法和對未來一年的指導時，我們將進一步談論這個問題。但在此之前，讓我先來談談我們長期模型的第三個主要驅動力，即營業利潤率的擴大。

As a reminder, our long-range model calls for approximately 400 basis points of operating margin expansion between 2023 and 2028. We expect about half of this expansion to come from leverage on our projected double-digit top-line sales growth. And we expect the other half to come from opportunities unrelated to sales.

提醒一下，我們的長期模型預測 2023 年至 2028 年期間營業利潤率將擴大約 400 個基點。我們預計，這一擴張的一半左右將來自於我們預計的兩位數營收成長。我們預計另一半將來自與銷售無關的機會。

These opportunities fall into two buckets: firstly, higher merchant margin driven by better control and allocation of inventory leading to faster turns; and secondly, productivity improvements and other expense savings in our supply chain. As I said a moment ago, we achieved 100 basis points of operating margin expansion in 2024.

這些機會分為兩類：首先，透過更好的控制和分配庫存來提高商家利潤率，從而加快週轉速度；其次，我們供應鏈的生產效率得到提高，其他費用得到節省。正如我剛才所說，我們在 2024 年實現了 100 個基點的營業利潤率成長。

This was well ahead of our initial guidance of 10 to 50 basis points. Kristin will provide more details later in the call. But the major drivers of this expansion was stronger merchant margin from faster inventory turns, ahead of planned savings from supply chain productivity initiatives, and sales leverage on fixed costs.

這遠高於我們最初預期的 10 至 50 個基點。克里斯汀將在稍後的通話中提供更多詳細資訊。但此次擴張的主要驅動力是更快的庫存週轉率帶來的更高的商家利潤，超過了供應鏈生產力舉措帶來的計劃節約，以及固定成本的銷售槓桿。

Okay, enough about 2024. I would like to segue now to our 2025 outlook. As previewed in our third-quarter call last November, our 2025 guidance is for total sales growth of 6% to 8%, driven by 100 net new store openings plus comp store sales growth of 0% to 2%. Based on this comp sales range, we expect operating margin expansion of 0 to 30 basis points.

好的，關於 2024 年就說這麼多。現在我想談談我們對 2025 年的展望。正如我們去年 11 月在第三季電話會議上預測的那樣，我們對 2025 年的預期是總銷售額增長 6% 至 8%，這得益於 100 家新店淨開業加上同店銷售額增長 0% 至 2%。根據這項可比較銷售額範圍，我們預期營業利潤率將擴大 0 至 30 個基點。

This 2025 guidance is consistent with our playbook. The outlook for 2025 is very uncertain with significant economic, political, and geopolitical risks that could affect consumers. Rather than trying to predict what is going to happen, our approach is to manage our business conservatively and then be ready to pull back or to chase the sales trend if it is stronger.

2025 年的指導與我們的劇本一致。2025 年的前景非常不確定，重大的經濟、政治和地緣政治風險可能會影響消費者。我們的方法不是試圖預測會發生什麼，而是保守地管理我們的業務，然後準備撤退或追逐更強勁的銷售趨勢。

This approach served us well in 2024, and we hope for the same in 2025. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Kristin. Kristin?

這種方法在 2024 年對我們很有幫助，我們希望在 2025 年也能發揮同樣的作用。現在，我想將電話轉給克里斯汀。克里斯汀？

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. In the fourth quarter, total sales grew 10% and comp sales grew 6%, well above the high end of our guidance. Our adjusted EBIT margin expanded 10 basis points versus last year. This was 60 basis points above the high end of our guidance. The gross margin rate for the fourth quarter was 42.9%, an increase of 30 basis points versus last year.

謝謝你，邁克爾，大家早安。第四季度，總銷售額成長 10%，同店銷售額成長 6%，遠高於我們預期的最高水準。我們的調整後息稅前利潤率較去年同期增加了 10 個基點。這比我們預期的最高值高出 60 個基點。第四季毛利率為42.9%，較去年同期增加30個基點。

This was driven by a 10-basis-point increase in merchandise margin due to better-than-expected storage results and lower markdowns, partially offset by lower markup due to higher, better brand penetration. Freight expenses decreased 20 basis points.

這是由於儲存結果優於預期且降價幅度較低導致商品利潤率增加了 10 個基點，但因品牌滲透率更高、更好導致的加價幅度較低而部分抵消了這一增長。運費下降20個基點。

Product sourcing costs were $217 million versus $197 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. Product sourcing costs were flat as a percentage of sales versus last year, as leverage on supply chain expenses and buying costs were offset by higher incentive costs and higher asset protection costs. Adjusted SG&A costs in Q4 were 20 basis points higher than last year. This excludes the impact of expenses associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. These were worth approximately $5 million this year and $6 million last year.

產品採購成本為 2.17 億美元，而 2023 年第四季為 1.97 億美元。產品採購成本佔銷售額的百分比與去年同期持平，因為供應鏈費用和採購成本的槓桿被更高的激勵成本和更高的資產保護成本所抵消。第四季調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用比去年同期高出 20 個基點。這不包括與破產租賃相關的費用的影響。今年這些資產的價值約為 500 萬美元，去年約為 600 萬美元。

In Q4, we achieved sales leverage on corporate G&A expenses, but this leverage was offset by higher incentive comp and the timing of advertising costs. Q4 adjusted EBIT margin was 11.1%, 10 basis points above last year, well above our guidance for a decrease of 50 to 80 basis points. Our adjusted earnings per share in Q4 was $4.13, again, well above the high end of our guidance. This represents a 12% increase versus the prior year.

在第四季度，我們在企業一般及行政費用上實現了銷售槓桿，但這種槓桿被更高的激勵補償和廣告成本的時機所抵消。第四季調整後的息稅前利潤率為 11.1%，比去年同期高出 10 個基點，遠高於我們預期的 50 至 80 個基點的降幅。我們第四季的調整後每股收益為 4.13 美元，再次遠高於我們預期的高點。這比上年增長了 12%。

At the end of the quarter, comparable store inventories were down 3% versus the end of the fourth quarter in 2023. Our reserve inventory was 46% of our total inventory versus 39% of our inventory last year. We are pleased with the quality of the merchandise and the value that we have in reserve. We ended the quarter in a very strong liquidity position, with approximately $1.8 billion in total liquidity, which consisted of $995 million in cash and $827 million in availability on our ABL.

截至本季末，可比店鋪庫存較 2023 年第四季末下降了 3%。我們的儲備庫存佔總庫存的 46%，而去年比例為 39%。我們對商品的品質和儲備價值感到滿意。我們在本季結束時流動性狀況非常強勁，總流動性約為 18 億美元，其中包括 9.95 億美元現金和 8.27 億美元的 ABL 可用資金。

We had no borrowings outstanding at the end of the quarter on the ABL. During the quarter, we repurchased $61 million in common stock, bringing our annual share repurchases to $242 million. At the end of Q4, we had $263 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization that expires in August of 2025. In Q4, we opened five net new stores, bringing our store count at the end of the quarter to 1,108 stores.

截至本季末，我們的 ABL 上沒有未償還的借款。本季度，我們回購了 6,100 萬美元的普通股，使我們的年度回購金額達到 2.42 億美元。截至第四季末，我們的股票回購授權剩餘金額為 2.63 億美元，該授權將於 2025 年 8 月到期。第四季度，我們淨開設了 5 家新店，使本季末的店數達到 1,108 家。

This includes eight new store openings, one relocation, and two closings. As Michael noted, for the full year, we opened 147 new stores while relocating 31 stores and closing 15 stores, adding 101 net new stores to our fleet. I will now move on to discuss our full-year 2024 results.

其中包括八家新店開幕、一家店遷址和兩家店關閉。正如麥可所說，我們全年開設了 147 家新店，同時搬遷了 31 家店並關閉了 15 家店，淨增 101 家新店。現在我將繼續討論我們的 2024 年全年業績。

In fiscal 2024, total sales increased 11%, on top of 10% in 2023. Comp store sales increased 4%, on top of 4% in 2023. Our operating margin for the full year expanded by 100 basis points. Merchandise margin increased by 60 basis points. Freight improved by 20 basis points. Supply chain costs leveraged by 50 basis points, and we achieved 20 basis points of leverage on fixed expenses.

2024財年，總銷售額成長11%，而2023年則成長了10%。同店銷售額將成長 4%，2023 年將成長 4%。我們全年營業利益率擴大了100個基點。商品利潤率增加了60個基點。運費上漲了20個基點。供應鏈成本槓桿率提高了50個基點，而我們固定費用槓桿率則提高了20個基點。

This operating margin expansion was partially offset by deleverage driven by investments in store payroll, higher incentive costs, and higher depreciation in fiscal 2024. Before I turn to guidance, I would like to provide an update on our supply chain strategy and capital expenditures. On our November call, we talked about the strategic rationale for owning rather than leasing our most productive distribution centers.

這一營業利潤率的擴大被門市工資投資、更高的激勵成本和 2024 財年更高的折舊所推動的去槓桿化部分抵消。在提供指導之前，我想先介紹我們的供應鏈策略和資本支出的最新情況。在 11 月的電話會議上，我們討論了擁有而不是租賃最俱生產力的配送中心的策略理由。

Our vision for future DC capacity is one designed to better support our off-price operating model and more highly automated. As a reminder, historically, we have leased our distribution centers, which made sense at the time when our balance sheet was much more leveraged.

我們對未來 DC 容量的願景是更好地支援我們的折扣營運模式和更高程度的自動化。提醒一下，從歷史上看，我們租賃了我們的配送中心，這在我們的資產負債表槓桿率較高的時候是合理的。

We now have the balance sheet strength to own rather than lease. Ownership gives us greater control over the design of these buildings. It also allows us to leverage this capital investment as we grow over time and to avoid significant rent increases at each lease renewal.

我們現在擁有擁有而非租賃的資產負債表實力。所有權使我們能夠更好地控制這些建築的設計。它還使我們能夠隨著時間的增長而利用這項資本投資，並避免每次續租時租金大幅上漲。

With that said, I'm pleased to share that in the fourth quarter, we exercised the purchase option on our 2-million-square-foot Savannah, Georgia, DC that is on target to be opened in 2026. Given the progress we have made during the construction process, we exercised this purchase option in January, a few months earlier than originally planned.

話雖如此，我很高興地告訴大家，在第四季度，我們行使了位於喬治亞州薩凡納 200 萬平方英尺的購物中心的購買選擇權，該購物中心計劃於 2026 年開業。考慮到我們在施工過程中取得的進展，我們在一月份行使了這項購買選擇權，比原計劃提前了幾個月。

As a result, CapEx for FY24 increased to $844 million, above our previous guidance of $750 million. Additionally, we have also recently opportunistically negotiated the purchase of our most efficient, most automated West Coast DC, our Cactus facility in Riverside, California. This deal will have CapEx implications for FY25, which I will review.

因此，24 財年的資本支出增加至 8.44 億美元，高於我們先前預期的 7.5 億美元。此外，我們最近也抓住機會，談判購買我們最高效、自動化程度最高的西海岸配送中心，即位於加州河濱市的 Cactus 工廠。這筆交易將對 25 財年的資本支出產生影響，我將對此進行審查。

I'll first move to our 2025 guidance. This guidance excludes approximately $13 million in 2025 versus $16 million in 2024 in expenses associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. For 2025, we expect total sales growth in the range of 6% to 8%. This assumes 100 net new store openings. We anticipate that most of these stores will open in the latter half of the year.

我首先要談談我們 2025 年的指導。該指引不包括 2025 年約 1,300 萬美元及 2024 年 1,600 萬美元的破產租賃相關費用。到 2025 年，我們預計總銷售額成長率將在 6% 至 8% 之間。假設新店淨開設 100 家。我們預計大部分門市將於今年下半年開幕。

We are forecasting comp store sales to increase in the range of flat to 2% and our adjusted EBIT margin to be in the range of flat to an increase of 30 basis points versus last year. We expect the major drivers of this expansion to be higher merchandise margin and productivity savings from supply chain initiatives. All this results in adjusted earnings per share guidance in the range of $8.70 to $9.30, an expected increase of 4% to 11%.

我們預測同店銷售額將與去年同期持平至成長 2%，調整後的息稅前利潤率將與去年同期持平至成長 30 個基點。我們預計，此次擴張的主要驅動力是更高的商品利潤率和供應鏈舉措帶來的生產力節約。所有這些導致調整後的每股收益預期在 8.70 美元至 9.30 美元之間，預計將增長 4% 至 11%。

Capital expenditures, net of landlord allowances, are expected to be approximately $950 million in fiscal 2025. The increase in CapEx for FY25 is driven by the purchase of our currently leased Cactus DC in Southern California. This purchase is scheduled to close later this month.

扣除房東津貼後的資本支出預計在 2025 財年約為 9.5 億美元。25 財年資本支出的增加是由於我們購買了目前位於南加州租賃的 Cactus DC。此次收購預計將於本月稍後完成。

When combining our FY24 actual and FY25 guidance, total capital expenditures are higher than we previously indicated by about $200 million. This variance is entirely driven by the opportunistic purchase of the Cactus DC. This purchase had not previously been contemplated in our long-range model.

結合我們 24 財年的實際數據和 25 財年的指引，總資本支出比我們先前預測的高出約 2 億美元。這種差異完全是由 Cactus DC 的機會主義購買所驅動。我們的長期模型之前並未考慮過此項購買。

I would like to move on to guidance for the first quarter of 2025. This Q1 guidance excludes approximately $6 million each in 2025 and in 2024 in expenses associated with bankruptcy acquired leases. We expect total sales to increase 5% to 7%. Comp store sales are -- seem to be flattish for Q1.

我想繼續介紹 2025 年第一季的指導。本第一季指引不包括 2025 年及 2024 年各約 600 萬美元的破產收購租賃相關費用。我們預計總銷售額將成長 5% 至 7%。第一季同店銷售額似乎持平。

We are expecting adjusted EBIT margin to be in the range of down 50 to down 90 basis points over the first quarter of 2024. This results in an adjusted EPS outlook in the range of $1.30 to $1.45 versus last year's first-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.42.

我們預計 2024 年第一季調整後的息稅前利潤率將下降 50 至 90 個基點。這導致調整後的每股收益預期在 1.30 美元至 1.45 美元之間，而去年第一季的調整後每股收益為 1.42 美元。

I will now turn the call back to Michael.

我現在將電話轉回給邁克爾。

Thank you, Kristin. Before I turn the call over to questions, I would like to reinforce a few of the key points that we have discussed this morning. Firstly, we are pleased with our Q4 results. These results were well above the high end of guidance.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。在開始提問之前，我想重申我們今天早上討論過的幾個要點。首先，我們對第四季的業績感到滿意。這些結果遠高於預期的最高值。

They were driven by, number one, our strategy to elevate value across categories and price points; and number two, our effectiveness in responding to sudden unexpected shifts in the external sales trend throughout the fall season.

推動他們實現這一目標的首先是我們提升跨類別和價位價值的策略；第二，我們對整個秋季外部銷售趨勢突然意外變化的應對效率。

Secondly, we are pleased and encouraged with the progress that we made in 2024 towards our long-range financial goals: 11% total sales growth, 4% comp store sales growth, 100 basis points of margin expansion. We are just one year into our long-range model, but we are tracking well on each of the key drivers of this model.

其次，我們對 2024 年在實現長期財務目標方面取得的進展感到高興和鼓舞：總銷售額增長 11%、同店銷售額增長 4%、利潤率擴大 100 個基點。我們的長期模型才剛推出一年，但我們正在順利追蹤模型的每一個關鍵驅動因素。

Thirdly, the 2025 outlook is uncertain. And in this environment, we are planning and managing our business conservatively. This is consistent with our playbook, and it should put us in the best possible position to react to whatever happens externally.

第三，2025年的前景不確定。在這種環境下，我們正在保守地規劃和管理我們的業務。這符合我們的劇本，並且它應該讓我們處於最佳位置來應對外部發生的任何事情。

I would now like to turn the call over for your questions.

現在我想把電話轉交給你們來回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示） 摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的 Matthew Boss。

Thanks, and congrats on a really great fourth quarter.

謝謝，並祝賀您度過了一個非常出色的第四季度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

So, Michael, could you elaborate on sales trends that you've seen so far in the first quarter? In particular, the comp guidance for the first quarter appears more conservative than the remainder of the year. If you could share what is driving that?

那麼，邁克爾，您能詳細說明一下第一季迄今為止的銷售趨勢嗎？尤其是第一季的業績預期似乎比今年剩餘時間的預期更為保守。能分享一下推動這現象的因素嗎？

Sure. Good morning, Matt. Thank you for the question. In February, our first-quarter trend started out weaker than we had planned or expected. Now I think that's consistent with what you've heard from other retailers who've reported. But let me offer some detailed commentary on what the potential drivers of that weakness might be.

當然。早安，馬特。感謝您的提問。二月份，我們第一季的趨勢一開始就弱於我們的計劃或預期。現在我認為這與您從其他零售商那裡聽到的報告一致。但讓我就造成這種弱點的潛在因素提供一些詳細的評論。

I think I've said before that the first quarter is typically the most volatile and unpredictable quarter of the year. There are two factors that typically drive that volatility. Firstly, weather; the weather, especially in February and March, can vary a lot from one year to the next. And secondly, the timing of tax refunds. Our customer, as you know, is very sensitive to the timing of tax refunds, specifically, earned income tax credit and child tax credit.

我想我之前說過，第一季通常是一年中最不穩定、最難預測的季度。通常有兩個因素會導致這種波動。首先，天氣；每年的天氣，尤其是二月和三月的天氣，都會有很大差異。其次，退稅的時間。如您所知，我們的客戶對退稅的時間非常敏感，特別是勞動所得稅抵免和兒童稅收抵免。

Now, of course, whenever we see a weaker-than-expected trend, we slice and dice the sales data to identify what might be going on. For the first few weeks of February, we didn't have to look very hard. It was clear from the underlying sales data that the weakness in the trend was concentrated in two specific regions, the Midwest and the Northeast.

當然，現在每當我們看到弱於預期的趨勢時，我們就會對銷售數據進行分析，以確定可能發生的事情。二月初的幾週，我們並不需要太費力去尋找。從基礎銷售數據可以清楚看出，趨勢的疲軟集中在兩個特定地區，即中西部和東北部。

Those regions are obviously very important to us. And in February, they experienced unfavorable weather. I should add, as the weather began to normalize later in the month, we saw the sales trend pick up.

這些地區顯然對我們來說非常重要。二月份，他們遭遇了不利的天氣。我應該補充一點，隨著本月晚些時候天氣開始正常化，我們看到銷售趨勢回升。

Now as for the timing of tax refunds, in February, the distribution of tax refund payments fell well behind last year. And we think that that delay also contributed to some of the weakness in the sales trend that we saw during the month. Again, as refunds caught up later in February, the sales trend strengthened.

從退稅時間來看，2月退稅發放進度明顯落後去年。我們認為，這種延遲也是導致當月銷售趨勢疲軟的原因之一。再次，隨著 2 月底退款潮的到來，銷售趨勢進一步加強。

So we believe that the weak trend in February can largely be attributed to the usual suspects, weather and the timing of tax refunds. But in our business, at least in the short term, it pays to be neurotic. Could there be something else going on? We have not seen anything in the data to suggest this, at least not yet. But that said, we recognize that there are a lot of things happening externally.

因此，我們認為，2 月的疲軟趨勢很大程度上可以歸因於常見的因素、天氣和退稅時機。但在我們的產業中，至少在短期內，神經質是有好處的。還會有其他事情發生嗎？至少目前我們還沒有看到任何數據顯示這一點。但話雖如此，我們也認識到外部正在發生很多事情。

And at this point, we don't know if or when those things might have an effect on our customer. We haven't seen it yet. But of course, there is risk. We're only four weeks into the quarter. We need to get further along and see how the sales trend develops.

目前，我們不知道這些事情是否或何時會對我們的客戶產生影響。我們還沒看到它。但當然也有風險。本季才剛過去四周。我們需要進一步觀察銷售趨勢如何發展。

So turning to guidance, given that weaker-than-expected start to the quarter, we're being a little more cautious about our Q1 guidance. That's the reason why we're guiding to a flattish comp versus 0% to 2% for the full year.

因此，談到指引，鑑於本季開局弱於預期，我們對第一季的指引更加謹慎。這就是我們預期全年成長率將持平而非為 0% 至 2% 的原因。

Great color. And then maybe just a follow-up on your first-quarter margin guide, looks a bit lower relative to the year. Kristin, could you just walk through the drivers of margin contraction in the first quarter in the cadence of margin expansion by quarter through the year?

顏色很棒。然後也許只是對您的第一季利潤率指南的後續跟進，看起來相對於去年同期來說要低一些。克里斯汀，您能否按照全年各季度利潤率擴張的節奏，介紹一下第一季利潤率收縮的驅動因素？

Sure. Good morning, Matt. It's a good question. Let me provide a little bit more context. And last year, in fiscal 2024, our biggest EBIT margin increase was in the first quarter. It was up 170 basis points. Our EBIT margin increases then moderated as the year unfolded, largely due to clearance level comparisons and the timing of certain freight and supply chain savings.

當然。早安，馬特。這是個好問題。讓我提供更多背景資訊。去年，也就是 2024 財年，我們的息稅前利潤率最大增幅是在第一季。它上漲了170個基點。隨著時間的推移，我們的息稅前利潤率增幅開始放緩，這主要是由於清關水準比較以及某些貨運和供應鏈節省的時間安排。

But for fiscal '25, we anticipate the reverse of this trend will be true, with the most challenging margin comparison here in the first quarter. We then expect margin comparison to improve as the year unfolds, and we actually expect the biggest year-over-year improvement in the fourth quarter.

但對於 25 財年，我們預期這種趨勢將會逆轉，第一季的利潤率對比將是最具挑戰性的。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，利潤率將會提高，實際上，我們預計第四季的同比成長將達到最大。

So put another way, if you were to look at our margin expansion on a two-year basis, generally, it'd be fairly consistent across quarters. But to your question, more specifically on Q1, there are a couple of factors I want to explain more on.

換句話說，如果以兩年為基礎來看待我們的利潤率擴張，一般來說，各季度的利潤率會相當一致。但對於您的問題，更具體地說是關於問題 1，有幾個因素我想進一步解釋。

First, merchandise margin is expected to be a driver of EBIT margin improvement in fiscal 2025. But in the first quarter, we're not expecting much help for merch margin. This is due to some modest mark-on pressure from increased better brands and timing of some markdowns.

首先，商品利潤率預計將成為2025財年息稅前利潤率提高的驅動力。但在第一季度，我們預計商品利潤不會有太大幫助。這是由於優質品牌增多以及降價時機的調整帶來了適度的加價壓力。

The second factor in Q1 is on supply chain. We will anniversary some DC lease renewal increases in the back half of '25. And the fixed cost deleverage in supply chain is most pronounced in the first quarter. And I should add that while we expect to continue to drive cost savings and supply chain, we expect most of these savings will come through later in this year.

第一季的第二個因素是供應鏈。我們將在25年下半年增加一些 DC 租約續約費用。其中，供應鏈固定成本去槓桿在第一季最為明顯。我應該補充一點，雖然我們希望繼續推動成本節約和供應鏈，但我們預計大部分節約將在今年稍後實現。

And then the last point on Q1 is that we have deleverage on fixed costs based on our comp sales assumption of flattish or minus 1% to plus 1%. And that deleverage is exacerbated by the fact that Q1 is our lowest sales volume quarter of the fiscal year.

關於第一季的最後一點是，根據我們對同店銷售額持平或下降 1% 至上升 1% 的假設，我們對固定成本進行了去槓桿。由於第一季是我們財年中銷售量最低的季度，去槓桿現象進一步加劇。

So all these factors make Q1 by tough -- our toughest EBIT margin comparison and outlook for the fiscal year. As I look to the balance of the year, we do expect comp store sales to be flat to plus 2%. And about 75% of our new stores are scheduled to open in the second half of the year. So total sales growth is lower in the first half of the year relative to the back half.

因此，所有這些因素使得第一季成為我們本財年最艱難的息稅前利潤率比較和展望。展望今年的餘額，我們確實預期同店銷售額將持平至成長 2%。我們大約75%的新店計劃在下半年開幕。因此，上半年的總銷售額成長低於下半年。

So taking all this together, we expect pretty modest EBIT margin expansion in the second quarter. And then for the third quarter, EBIT margin improvement should look more like our annual guidance. And finally, for the fourth quarter, we expect that will be our most significant EBIT margin improvement in '25.

綜合考慮所有這些因素，我們預計第二季息稅前利潤率將溫和成長。對於第三季度，息稅前利潤率的改善應該更接近我們的年度指引。最後，對於第四季度，我們預計這將是我們25年最顯著的息稅前利潤率提升。

Thanks for all the color. Best of luck.

感謝所有的色彩。祝你好運。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的艾克·博魯喬（Ike Boruchow）。

Hey. Hi. Good morning. Congrats, Michael, Kristin, David. I guess, Michael, for you, a good strong finish to '24, of course. I guess, I'm wondering if you can break down your comp trend for 2024, especially in the fourth quarter in terms of maybe how much you think might be coming from trade-down shoppers versus existing customers.

嘿。你好。早安.恭喜，麥可、克莉絲汀、大衛。我想，邁克爾，對你來說，當然是 24 年的一個圓滿結束。我想知道您是否可以細分一下 2024 年的競爭趨勢，尤其是第四季度，您認為其中有多少可能來自於降級購物者與現有客戶。

Well, good morning, Ike. It's a good question. As you know, we think of our customers in two major buckets, two major segments. And let me start with the first of those, the need-a-deal customer. That customer is typically lower income, and they are very focused on value. This is a very important segment of customers for us.

早安，艾克。這是個好問題。如您所知，我們將客戶分為兩大類，兩大類別。讓我先從第一個需要達成交易的客戶開始。該客戶通常收入較低，並且非常注重價值。對我們來說，這是一個非常重要的客戶群。

In fact, it's difficult for us to drive comp sales growth without this customer. For Q4, as I look at our stores that were in -- that are in lower-income trade areas, these were actually the strongest performing stores in the chain. And that tells me we are doing very well with the need-a-deal customer.

事實上，如果沒有這個客戶，我們很難推動銷售成長。對於第四季度，當我看到我們位於低收入貿易區的商店時，它們實際上是連鎖店中表現最強勁的商店。這表明我們在服務需要交易的客戶方面做得非常好。

Now in the prepared remarks, I talked about our strategy to elevate our assortment within a good-better- best framework. And that meant elevating the value at all price points. Now of course, it's difficult to offer well-known national brands at lower or opening price points.

現在，在準備好的發言中，我談到了我們在好-更好-最好框架內提升產品組合的策略。這意味著提升所有價位的價值。當然，現在很難以較低或開放的價格提供知名的國家品牌。

So our merchants had to work very hard to deliver value through other means, such as great quality or strong fashion or other attributes that the customer cares about. My assessment is that they -- we did a very good job delivering great value to the need-a-deal shopper in Q4 and throughout 2024. And that was a clear driver of our comp growth.

因此，我們的商家必須非常努力地透過其他方式來提供價值，例如優良的品質、時尚的風格或其他客戶關心的屬性。我的評估是——我們在第四季度以及整個 2024 年為需要優惠的購物者提供了巨大的價值，做得非常好。這顯然是我們公司成長的推動力。

But let me turn now to the want-a-deal customer, the second sort of segment, if you like. As I just said, for Q4, our stores that are in lower-income trade areas were the strongest-performing stores in the chain. But we also saw a very healthy mid-single-digit comp store sales growth in moderate- and higher-income trade areas. We believe that that comp growth in those stores was driven by the trade-down customer.

但是現在讓我來談談“想要達成交易的客戶”，如果你願意的話，可以將其稱為第二種細分市場。正如我剛才所說，就第四季而言，我們位於低收入貿易區的商店是連鎖店中表現最強勁的商店。但我們也看到中等收入和高收入貿易區的同店銷售額也呈現非常健康的中等個位數成長。我們認為這些商店的同店銷售成長是由降級消費的消費者所推動的。

Now in addition to comp performance of stores based upon the income level of the trade area, there are other indicators that sort of further demonstrate that trade-down trend. For example, you can look at the performance of our business by price point.

現在，除了基於貿易區域收入水準的商店業績表現外，還有其他指標可以進一步證明這種消費下降趨勢。例如，您可以按價格點查看我們業務的表現。

As we've disclosed in the past, our average unit retail, our average ticket is about $10. In Q4, we saw a mid-single-digit percentage increase in that average retail versus last year. And the strongest comp sales growth rates in Q4 were in price buckets well above $10. Again, that's the trade-down customer.

正如我們過去所揭露的，我們的平均單位零售價、平均票價約為 10 美元。與去年同期相比，第四季的平均零售額出現了中等個位數的百分比成長。第四季同店銷售額增幅最大的是價格遠高於 10 美元的商品。再說一遍，這就是降級消費的消費者。

So tying all that together, I would say that we are very pleased with the strength of our business, with our core need-a-deal shoppers. And we're also very pleased with our success in attracting the want-a-deal or the trade-down shopper. To achieve a 6% comp store sales growth in Q4, we had to deliver great value to both of those important segments of customers, and that's what we did.

所以綜合起來，我想說，我們對我們的業務實力以及我們的核心需要優惠的購物者感到非常滿意。我們也對自己在吸引那些想要便宜貨或降價購物者的方面取得的成功感到非常高興。為了實現第四季 6% 的同店銷售成長，我們必須為這兩個重要的客戶群提供巨大的價值，而這正是我們所做的。

Got it. Super helpful. And then, Michael, if I can do one more. Just -- we've tried this with some of our companies in the space. But I guess, on the topic of broader policy changes that are likely to happen in 2025, things like tariffs, tighter immigration controls, I mean, can you comment on how do you see these policy changes affecting your customer? And maybe what are the biggest risks as you kind of look out in that regard?

知道了。超有幫助。然後，邁克爾，如果我可以再做一次。只是——我們已經與該領域的一些公司嘗試過這種方法。但我想，關於 2025 年可能發生的更廣泛的政策變化，例如關稅、更嚴格的移民控制，您能否評論一下這些政策變化將如何影響您的客戶？從這個角度來看，最大的風險是什麼？

Sure, sure. Yeah, it's a good question, Ike. It's a question we've thought a lot about. But let me share some of our thinking. Let me preface my answer by saying, we are very optimistic about our business over the next two to three years.

當然，當然。是的，艾克，這是個好問題。這是我們思考過很多次的問題。但請讓我分享我們的一些想法。首先我想說，我們對未來兩到三年的業務非常樂觀。

But we recognize that in the short term, there are risks. And frankly, the sales trend is likely to be choppy. There are a lot of things going on in terms of potential policy changes, including the things you mentioned. But at this point, I don't think anyone can confidently or accurately forecast what it all means. With that said, let me make a couple of points.

但我們認識到短期內存在風險。坦白說，銷售趨勢可能會不穩定。就潛在的政策變化而言，有很多事情正在發生，包括您提到的事情。但目前，我認為沒有人能夠自信或準確地預測這一切意味著什麼。話雖如此，請容許我談幾點。

Firstly, my experience has been that, generally, uncertainty and disruption tend to be good for off-price. But the key thing for us as an off-price retailer is to remain nimble and flexible so we can react more effectively to whatever happens. That is what we are doing. We're being cautious, and we're tightly controlling our open-to-buy.

首先，我的經驗是，一般來說，不確定性和中斷往往對折扣有利。但作為一家折扣零售商，我們的關鍵是保持敏捷和靈活，以便能夠對任何情況做出更有效的反應。這就是我們正在做的事情。我們非常謹慎，並且嚴格控制我們的購買開放程度。

Secondly, if I think about specific policy changes, for example, tighter immigration control, higher import tariffs, both of which you mentioned, but also changes in the tax code, changes in federal benefits, it's true, some of these things could have a negative impact on our customers. But some of them could be very positive. I think it all depends on the scale and the specifics. And we just don't know those yet.

其次，如果我考慮具體的政策變化，例如更嚴格的移民控制、更高的進口關稅（您提到的這兩項），還有稅法的變化、聯邦福利的變化，確實，其中一些可能會對我們的客戶產生負面影響。但其中一些可能非常積極。我認為這一切都取決於規模和具體情況。但我們還不知道這些。

And apart from individual policy changes themselves, I think a lot depends on what happens in the overall economy. So what happens to inflation, what happens to our wages, what happens to trade-down shoppers, and what happens to regular-price competitors and apparently the rest of retail?

除了個別政策變化本身之外，我認為很大程度取決於整體經濟的情況。那麼通貨膨脹會發生什麼事？我們的薪水會發生什麼事？降價購物者會發生什麼事？正價競爭對手以及其他零售業會發生什麼事？

Look, I'm -- I describe myself as a rational optimist. I could easily paint a scenario for our business that's very positive over the next couple of years: lower taxes on hourly workers, lower energy prices, lower corporate taxes, and strong availability of off-price merchandise due to disruption from tariffs. We've just reported 6% comp store sales growth for Q4, and we see a lot of reasons to be excited and optimistic about our business in the years ahead.

看，我——我將自己描述為一個理性的樂觀主義者。我可以輕鬆地為我們的業務描繪出未來幾年非常積極的前景：計時工人的稅收降低、能源價格降低、企業稅降低，以及由於關稅影響而導致的折扣商品大量供應。我們剛剛公佈第四季同店銷售額成長 6%，我們看到很多理由對未來幾年的業務感到興奮和樂觀。

But that said, we realize it may not be a straight upward sloping line. We anticipate that in the short term, things could be volatile. There are external risks. For example, higher tariffs, which you mentioned, could drive up inflation, and that could hurt discretionary spending.

但話雖如此，我們意識到它可能不是一條筆直向上的傾斜線。我們預期短期內情況可能會出現波動。存在外部風險。例如，您提到的提高關稅可能推高通貨膨脹，從而影響可自由支配的支出。

But this is a -- it's a complex issue. There are a lot of variables that means -- that that might or might not happen, which brings me back to my earlier point. As a business, we need to focus on what we can control. And that means planning our business cautiously, being nimble, flexible, and ready to react. And that's the approach that we're taking.

但這是一個複雜的問題。有很多變數意味著——這可能發生，也可能不會發生，這讓我回到之前的觀點。作為一家企業，我們需要專注於我們能夠控制的事情。這意味著我們要謹慎規劃業務，保持敏捷、靈活並隨時做出反應。這就是我們採取的方法。

Got it. Thanks so much. Good luck.

知道了。非常感謝。祝你好運。

Thanks, Ike.

謝謝，艾克。

Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.

美國銀行的洛林‧哈欽森 (Lorraine Hutchinson)。

Thank you. Good morning. My first question is for Kristin. Your 2025 full-year guidance is 0 to 30 basis points of operating margin expansion on that 0 to 2 comp. For 2025, you guided 10 to 50 basis points on a similar comp range. Can you remind us of why you're guiding to lower expansion this year?

謝謝。早安.我的第一個問題是問克里斯汀的。您對 2025 年全年業績的預期是，營業利潤率擴大 0 至 30 個基點，而同期的營業利潤率則為 0 至 2。對於 2025 年，您指導的類似比較範圍為 10 到 50 個基點。你能提醒我們為什麼今年你會降低擴張幅度嗎？

Good morning, Lorraine. Yeah, thanks for the question. You're right. We did initially guide 2024 EBIT margins originally up 10 to 50 basis points. However, as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we ended 2024 with EBIT margins up 100 basis points. And this upside was due to exceeding our sales plan and driving expense leverage, but also higher-than-planned merch margin improvement and faster-than-planned supply chain expense savings.

早安，洛林。是的，謝謝你的提問。你說得對。我們最初預計 2024 年息稅前利潤率將上漲 10 至 50 個基點。然而，正如我們在準備好的評論中所討論的那樣，到 2024 年底，我們的息稅前利潤率上升了 100 個基點。這一增長是由於我們的銷售計劃超出預期、費用槓桿率提高、商品利潤率提高超出計劃、供應鏈費用節省速度超出計劃。

In our long-range model, we discussed 200 basis points of margin opportunities that were unrelated to sales. Those were driven by higher merch margin, and freight and supply chain savings. In fiscal 2024, merch margin increased 60 basis points, supply chain efficiencies and productivity gains drove 50 basis points of leverage, and freight levered 20 basis points.

在我們的長期模型中，我們討論了與銷售無關的 200 個基點的利潤機會。這是由於更高的商品利潤以及運費和供應鏈節省。在 2024 財年，商品利潤率增加了 60 個基點，供應鏈效率和生產力的提高推動了槓桿率上升 50 個基點，貨運槓桿率上升了 20 個基點。

So essentially, we made faster progress than we expected in fiscal 2024. And we still expect to harvest the 200 basis points of savings, although for this year, in fiscal '25, we factored in a more measured pace of progress. We are expecting the 30 basis points of margin improvement on a 2% comp to be driven by merch margin improvement and additional leverage from supply chain efficiencies.

因此從本質上講，我們在 2024 財年取得的進展比預期的要快。我們仍然預計將獲得 200 個基點的節約，儘管對於今年，即 25 財年，我們考慮了更穩健的進展速度。我們預計，在 2% 的年增幅基礎上，利潤率將提高 30 個基點，這主要得益於商品利潤率的提高以及供應鏈效率的額外提升。

We're being a bit more cautious on freight as we want to plan conservatively based on the uncertainty. But those are the two key drivers of the 30 basis points in 2025, again, at a more measured pace than we saw in '24. And finally, it's worth calling out -- last point I'll make here is that for every 100 basis points of comp above a 2% comp, we would expect 10 to 15 basis points of incremental EBIT margin expansion.

我們對貨運更加謹慎，因為我們希望根據不確定性做出保守的計劃。但這是 2025 年實現 30 個基點成長的兩個關鍵驅動因素，而且，其成長速度比 24 年更加穩健。最後，值得一提的是——我要說的最後一點是，每比 2% 的同店銷售額高出 100 個基點，我們預計 EBIT 利潤率將增加 10 到 15 個基點。

Thank you. And then my second question is about the purchase of the DCs. What are the implications of higher CapEx for debt levels and stock buybacks?

謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於 DC 的購買。較高的資本支出對於債務水準和股票回購有何影響？

Thanks, Lorraine. It's David. I'll take that question, fair question. You've heard us talk about the strategic importance of owning and controlling really our most modern and technologically advanced distribution centers as we transform our supply chain over the next several years. And buying the Savannah and the California DCs are really two important steps in that transformation.

謝謝，洛林。是大衛。我來回答這個問題，這是一個公平的問題。您已經聽到我們談論在未來幾年轉變供應鏈時擁有和控制真正最現代化和技術最先進的配送中心的戰略重要性。而購買薩凡納和加州配送中心其實是這個轉型過程中的兩個重要步驟。

And as Kristin indicated earlier, those purchases did increase our level of CapEx in 2024 and 2025. We just invested $844 million in 2024. And as you know, we're now planning to invest $950 million in our growth in fiscal 2025.

正如克里斯汀之前所說，這些採購確實增加了我們 2024 年和 2025 年的資本支出水準。我們剛剛在 2024 年投資了 8.44 億美元。如您所知，我們目前計劃在 2025 財年投資 9.5 億美元進行成長。

Also, Kristin commented in her prepared remarks that those DC purchases did increase our CapEx levels over those two years, I just cited, 2024 and 2025, by about $200 million versus our original plan. And that increase is really attributable to the purchase of the California DC. We had planned all along to buy the Savannah DC.

此外，克里斯汀在她準備好的發言中表示，這些 DC 採購確實使我們在那兩年（我剛才提到的 2024 年和 2025 年）的資本支出水平比我們最初的計劃增加了約 2 億美元。這一增長實際上歸功於購買加州特區。我們一直在計劃購買 Savannah DC。

And if you think back to September, we did increase our term loan by about $300 million to fund the Savannah DC purchase. And we will evaluate whether or not we want to raise that to fund the California DC investment. But it is important to put all this into the overall context of the debt levels on our balance sheet. What do I mean by that?

如果你回想一下九月份，我們確實增加了約 3 億美元的定期貸款，以資助薩凡納 DC 的收購。我們將評估是否要籌集這筆資金來資助加州華盛頓特區的投資。但重要的是將所有這些納入我們資產負債表上債務水平的總體背景中。我這樣說是什麼意思？

First, we are retiring the $156 million outstanding in 2025 converts, which will be paid down with cash in April. And secondly, capitalized operating leases attributable to leased DCs are already captured on the balance sheet. So if we do choose to add some additional debt to finance the California DC purchase, we think the resulting increase in our leverage ratios would be very modest.

首先，我們將償還 2025 年未償還的 1.56 億美元轉換款項，這些款項將於 4 月以現金償還。其次，歸屬於租賃資料中心的資本化經營租賃已計入資產負債表。因此，如果我們確實選擇增加一些額外的債務來為加州特區的購買提供資金，我們認為由此導致的槓桿率成長將非常溫和。

And finally, probably to the crux of your question as far as share repurchases, we believe it's important to return excess cash to our shareholders on a consistent basis. So we would expect that practice to continue this year in fiscal 2025, with repurchases similar to the levels we executed in each of fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2024.

最後，就股票回購而言，可能這就是您問題的關鍵，我們認為持續向股東返還多餘的現金非常重要。因此，我們預計這一做法將在今年 2025 財年繼續，回購量與我們在 2023 財年和 2024 財年執行的水準相似。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Kernan, TD Cowen.

約翰·科南（TD Cowen）。

Hey, good morning, Michael, Kristin, David. Thanks for taking the question.

嘿，早安，麥可、克莉絲汀、大衛。感謝您回答這個問題。

Good morning.

早安.

Kristin, any additional color about category and regional performance in Q4, as well as how traffic and ticket drove the 6% comp increase in the quarter? I think Michael talked earlier about trade-down shoppers and need-a-deal shoppers both demonstrating strength. It seems like traffic and ticket would have both been positive drivers. Is that a fair statement?

克里斯汀，您能詳細介紹一下第四季的類別和地區表現嗎？以及流量和票價如何推動本季 6% 的年成長？我覺得邁克爾之前談過降價購物者和需要優惠的購物者都表現出了實力。看起來交通和罰單都是正面的推動因素。這是一個公正的說法嗎？

Yes, John. Thanks for the question. Yeah, to your last point, comp was driven by both an increase in transactions as well as higher average transaction value. The strongest metrics you implied were higher traffic, and we did see higher AUR, while conversion and units per transaction were flattish. So it was really traffic and AUR in the quarter.

是的，約翰。謝謝你的提問。是的，回到你的最後一點，銷售額的成長既受到交易量增加的推動，也受到平均交易價值上升的推動。您所暗示的最強大的指標是更高的流量，我們確實看到了更高的 AUR，而轉換率和每筆交易的單位數則持平。因此，本季的重點實際上是流量和 AUR。

In terms of category performance, there was relative strength in accessories, in beauty, and in home. But that said, all major categories really comped well, including apparel in the mid-single digits in Q4. And then you also asked about regional performance, regional trends. The Southeast and Southwest were above the chain, but regional strength was really broad-based with every region comping up at least mid-single digits.

從品類表現來看，配件、美妝、居家等品類表現相對強勁。但話雖如此，所有主要類別的表現確實不錯，其中第四季度的服裝銷售也達到了個位數的中等水平。然後您也詢問了區域表現和區域趨勢。東南部和西南部地區的表現高於平均水平，但各地區的實力確實非常廣泛，每個地區都至少取得了中等個位數的成長。

That's helpful. And maybe, Kristin, one follow-up. Michael talked about weather and regional dynamics into Q1. Is there any detail on how weather may have driven the business in Q4? Obviously, the 6% comp was one of the better holiday comps we've seen in a while.

這很有幫助。也許，克里斯汀，還有一個後續問題。邁克爾在第一季討論了天氣和區域動態。有沒有詳細資訊說明天氣如何影響第四季的業務？顯然，6% 的年增幅是我們近期見到的較好的假日年增幅之一。

Yeah. Thanks. You're right. Michael touched on this a little bit in the other parts of the call. But in terms of Q4, if I put it all together, weather did have a negative impact on our sales trend, particularly at the beginning of the quarter as we saw that unseasonably warm weather continue from October into November.

是的。謝謝。你說得對。邁克爾在通話的其他部分稍微談到了這一點。但就第四季度而言，如果把所有因素綜合起來看，天氣確實對我們的銷售趨勢產生了負面影響，尤其是在本季初，因為我們看到異常溫暖的天氣從 10 月持續到 11 月。

And then the other weather impact in the quarter was in January, with disruptive winter storms and then add to this, the California wildfires also contributed. So there was some disruption in January. If I step back and look at Q4, overall, our cold weather businesses underperformed the chain.

本季的另一個天氣影響發生在 1 月份，包括破壞性的冬季風暴以及加州的野火。因此一月出現了一些混亂。如果我回顧第四季度，總體而言，我們的寒冷天氣業務表現不如連鎖店。

Most of that underperformance was driven by that warmer weather in November, and it's a really important part of our mix in November. And we quantify the negative impact of this was worth about a point of comp in the quarter overall.

大部分錶現不佳是由於 11 月天氣變暖造成的，這是我們 11 月份業績組合中非常重要的一部分。我們量化了這事件造成的負面影響，整體而言，這相當於本季的年減約一個百分點。

Okay, got it. Thank you.

好的，明白了。謝謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞歷克斯·斯特拉頓。

Thanks so much for taking the question. Two for me. One for Kristin. I was just wondering if you could give us some more color on the components of the 15% inventory increase. It was nice to see as the comp store inventories were down 3%. But can you talk about the discrepancy there and then any key drivers?

非常感謝您回答這個問題。對我來說是兩個。一份給克里斯汀。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們詳細介紹 15% 庫存增加的組成部分。很高興看到同店庫存下降了 3%。但是你能談談那裡的差異以及任何關鍵驅動因素嗎？

Yeah, Alex, good morning. It's a good question. So overall inventory was up 15% at the end of Q4. This was driven really by adding 101 net new stores, but also higher levels of reserve inventory. In the store, on a comparable store basis, inventory in stores were down 3%, as you noted.

是的，亞歷克斯，早安。這是個好問題。因此，第四季末總庫存增加了 15%。這實際上是由於新增了 101 家新店，而且儲備庫存水準也更高。在商店中，以可比商店計算，正如您所說，商店庫存下降了 3%。

This compared pretty favorably to our 6% comp increase. And we continue to drive faster turns, which is a very healthy sign of our business. And while it could vary from quarter to quarter, so it may not always be this way, we generally expect to manage our comp store inventory levels below last year's level, as we still see opportunity to turn our inventory faster.

這與我們 6% 的年增幅相比相當有利。我們將繼續以更快的速度發展，這對我們的業務來說是一個非常健康的跡象。雖然每個季度的情況可能有所不同，所以可能並不總是這樣，但我們通常希望將我們的同店庫存水準管理在去年的水平以下，因為我們仍然看到更快地週轉庫存的機會。

And then last point I'll make -- it's an important point here -- is a driver of that 15% increase was our reserve inventory. We saw higher reserve penetration at 46% of total inventory versus 39% last year. And the buying environment has been strong, and our merchants took advantage of great reserve buying opportunities. And we feel really good about the values and the content of our reserve inventory.

我要說的最後一點——這是一個很重要的點——是推動這一 15% 成長的因素是我們的儲備庫存。我們發現儲備滲透率上升至總庫存的 46%，去年同期為 39%。購買環境一直很強勁，我們的商家利用了巨大的儲備購買機會。我們對我們的儲備庫存的價值和內容感到非常滿意。

Great. And maybe a follow-up just for Michael. There's obviously a lot going on with store closings across retail. Could you just update us on how many store leases Burlington has acquired from retailers going through a bankruptcy process?

偉大的。或許這只是針對麥可的後續行動。顯然，零售業中有很多商店關閉。您能否向我們介紹伯靈頓從正在經歷破產程序的零售商那裡獲得了多少家商店的租約？

Yeah, well, good morning, Alex. It's a good question. As you'll recall, in 2023, we acquired leases for 64 Bed Bath & Beyond stores through the bankruptcy process. We opened about half of those stores in 2023 and the balance in 2024.

是的，早上好，亞歷克斯。這是個好問題。您會記得，2023 年，我們透過破產程序獲得了 64 家 Bed Bath & Beyond 商店的租約。我們將在 2023 年開設大約一半的商店，其餘的將在 2024 年開設。

So they were an important source of some of our new store openings last year. And then late last year, we were able to secure an additional 39 stores from a handful of other retailers that were going through a bankruptcy process. We're very pleased about these new store locations.

所以他們是我們去年開設一些新店的重要來源。去年年底，我們從一些正在經歷破產程序的零售商手中獲得了另外 39 家門市。我們對這些新店的位置感到非常滿意。

Overall, these retail bankruptcies have given us access to locations and strip malls that we might not otherwise have been able to get into. The 39 locations that I referenced a moment ago are included in our new store opening plan of 100 net new stores for 2025. So we're excited about those locations.

總的來說，這些零售業破產讓我們能夠進入一些我們原本可能無法進入的場所和購物中心。我剛才提到的 39 家門市都包含在我們的 2025 年淨增 100 家門市的開設計畫中。所以我們對這些地點感到非常興奮。

Thanks. Good luck.

謝謝。祝你好運。

Thanks, Alex.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。

Brooke Roach, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的布魯克·羅奇。

Good morning, and thank you for taking our question. Michael, I'm curious about your view of the potential changes that might be made to the de minimis exception for small package imports. If these proposed changes go through, are they likely to slow the growth of companies like Shein and others? And would this be positive for Burlington?

早安，感謝您回答我們的問題。邁克爾，我很好奇您對小包裝進口最低限度例外可能做出的潛在改變的看法。如果這些提議的變革得以實施，是否會減緩 Shein 等公司的成長？這對伯靈頓來說是好事嗎？

Good morning, Brooke. Thank you for the question. I guess, the way I would answer that, I would say stepping back, our world view is that we operate in a very large and fragmented competitive space. There are many companies and retail formats that compete in the categories that we sell, department stores, specialty stores, fast fashion, online retailers, et cetera.

早上好，布魯克。感謝您的提問。我想，我會這樣回答這個問題，退一步來說，我們的世界觀是，我們在一個非常龐大且分散的競爭空間中運作。在我們銷售的商品類別中，有許多公司和零售業態展開競爭，包括百貨公司、專賣店、快時尚商店、線上零售商等等。

Now some of those companies are growing, and some of them aren't. But we know that we, at Burlington, need to earn our living every day. We need to be able to compete successfully with this broad competitive set by offering great value to shoppers.

現在，其中一些公司正在發展，而一些則沒有。但我們知道，在伯靈頓，我們每天都需要謀生。我們需要透過向購物者提供巨大的價值來成功與這一廣泛的競爭對手競爭。

Now the data shows that we've achieved very strong growth over the last couple of years. In 2024, we grew total sales by 11%. That was on top of 10% in 2023. The overall market is not growing at anything like those kinds of rates. So empirically, it's clear that we, at Burlington, are taking significant market share.

數據顯示，過去幾年我們實現了非常強勁的成長。2024年，我們的總銷售額成長了11%。到 2023 年，這一比例將超過 10%。整體市場並沒有以這樣的速度成長。因此從經驗上看，很明顯我們伯靈頓佔據了相當大的市場份額。

So all a long way of coming back to your question on Shein, based on the growth numbers that I've just cited, it certainly doesn't look like the growth of Shein over the last few years has had much impact on us. So conversely, will the elimination of the de minimis exception impact Shein? And if it does, will that be a benefit to us?

所以，回到你關於 Shein 的問題，根據我剛才引用的成長數據，Shein 在過去幾年的成長似乎並沒有對我們產生太大影響。那麼反過來說，取消最低限度例外會對 Shein 產生影響嗎？如果確實如此，這對我們有好處嗎？

I guess, my answer is, I guess, conceptually, yes, but I wouldn't expect the impact to be very material. I suspect that this is a much bigger issue for other e-commerce or for fast fashion or for specialty retailers than it is for us.

我想，我的答案是，從概念上來說，是的，但我預計其影響不會很大。我懷疑這對其他電子商務、快時尚或專業零售商來說是一個比我們更大的問題。

Great. And then my second question, you hinted at this earlier in another response to another question. Could you update us on your view on off-price merchandise availability today?

偉大的。然後是我的第二個問題，你之前在另一個問題的回答中暗示了這一點。您能否告訴我們您對今日折扣商品供應情況的看法？

Sure. Yeah, it's a good question, a very important question. There's not much new to call out here, I would say. And as you've heard from other off-price retailers, availability in the channel, I would say, is very strong. Of course, there are always categories, brands, and styles that are easier to get hold of or more difficult to get hold off. That's just the nature of off-price supply.

當然。是的，這是一個好問題，一個非常重要的問題。我想說，這裡沒有什麼新鮮事可說。正如您從其他折扣零售商那裡聽到的，我想說，該管道的供應非常充足。當然，總是有一些類別、品牌和款式比較容易取得，或是比較難取得。這就是折扣供應的本質。

But overall, our merchant team has, I think, gotten really good at finding terrific off-price deals. Q4 was a good illustration of that. We came into the quarter with actually a weaker-than-expected trend in early November, driven by weather.

但總體而言，我認為我們的商家團隊已經非常擅長尋找極佳的折扣交易。Q4 很好地說明了這一點。受天氣影響，11 月初我們進入本季時，其趨勢實際上弱於預期。

And with our comp guidance of flat to 2% for the quarter, we then, from mid-November onwards, we chased. Our merchants worked with our vendor partners, and we were able to chase to 6% comp growth, again, from a slow start.

根據我們本季的業績預期，我們將營收預期持平至 2%，然後從 11 月中旬開始，我們開始追逐這一目標。我們的商家與供應商夥伴攜手合作，我們再次從緩慢的起步追逐到 6% 的年成長。

So stepping back, I would say I feel very good about our vendor partnerships. Our partnerships with vendors are mutually respectful and mutually beneficial. We help our vendors build their businesses, and we're happy to do that. And they help us to build ours.

所以退一步來說，我會說我對我們的供應商合作關係感到非常滿意。我們與供應商的合作關係是相互尊重、互惠互利的。我們幫助我們的供應商發展他們的業務，我們很樂意這樣做。他們也幫助我們建立自己的家。

There aren't many retailers that are consistently growing top-line sales at double-digit rates every year. Our vendors know that. And so our growth and our growth potential, I think, have really helped us to expand, develop, and deepen our vendor network over the last few years.

能夠每年以兩位數的速度持續成長銷售額的零售商並不多。我們的供應商知道這一點。因此，我認為，我們的成長和成長潛力在過去幾年中確實幫助我們擴大、發展和深化了我們的供應商網路。

There is one final point I think I should touch on, though, and that's around tariffs and the potential impact of tariffs on off-price merchandise supply. Right now, things are very dynamic. It feels like there's new -- there are new developments every day -- literally every day on tariffs. That's creating a lot of uncertainty.

不過，我認為我應該談最後一點，即關稅以及關稅對折扣商品供應的潛在影響。目前，事態非常活躍。感覺每天都會有新的進展——確切地說，每天都有關稅方面的新進展。這造成了很多不確定性。

It's likely that that uncertainty is going to drive disruption in supply chains across retail, as merchandise that was ordered months ago starts to arrive and is hit with a tariff. And that disruption, I would say, is likely to create a buying opportunity for off-price. So off-price availability is good right now, and I think the chances are it's going to get better in the months ahead.

這種不確定性可能會導致整個零售業的供應鏈中斷，因為幾個月前訂購的商品開始到達並受到關稅的衝擊。我想說，這種中斷可能會創造出折扣購買的機會。所以目前折扣供應情況良好，我認為未來幾個月的情況可能會更好。

Great. Thanks so much. Best of luck going forward.

偉大的。非常感謝。祝你未來好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. I'd now like to hand back the call over to Michael O'Sullivan, CEO. Please go ahead.

謝謝。現在我想將電話交還給執行長 Michael O'Sullivan。請繼續。

Let me close by thanking everyone on this call for your interest in Burlington Stores. We look forward to talking to you again in May to discuss our first-quarter 2025 results. Thank you for your time today.

最後，我要感謝電話會議中大家對伯靈頓商店的關注。我們期待 5 月再次與您交談，討論我們的 2025 年第一季業績。感謝您今天抽出時間。

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。