Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Burlington Stores, Inc. third-quarter 2024 earnings webcast and conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instruction) Thank you.

您好，歡迎收看 Burlington Stores, Inc. 2024 年第三季財報網路廣播與電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。（操作員說明）謝謝。

I'd now like to hand the call over to David Glick, Group Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Treasurer. You may now begin.

我現在想將電話轉交給集團資深副總裁、投資者關係兼財務主管 David Glick。你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate everyone's participation in today's conference call to discuss Burlington's fiscal 2024 third-quarter operating results. Our presenters today are Michael O'Sullivan, our Chief Executive Officer; and Kristin Wolfe, our EVP and Chief Financial Officer. Before I turn the call over to Michael, I would like to inform listeners that this call may not be transcribed, recorded, or broadcast without our express permission. A replay of the call will be available until December 3, 2024.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們感謝大家參加今天的電話會議，討論伯靈頓 2024 財年第三季的經營業績。今天的主講人是我們的執行長 Michael O'Sullivan；以及我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Kristin Wolfe。在我將電話轉給麥可之前，我想通知聽眾，未經我們明確許可，不得轉錄、錄製或廣播此電話。電話會議的重播將持續到 2024 年 12 月 3 日。

We take no responsibility for inaccuracies that may appear in transcripts of this call by third parties. Our remarks and the Q&A that follows are copyrighted today by Burlington Stores. Remarks made on this call concerning future expectations, events, strategies, objectives, trends, or projected financial results are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those that are projected in such forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include those that are described in the company's 10-K for fiscal 2023 and in other filings with the SEC, all of which are expressly incorporated herein by reference.

我們對第三方通話記錄中可能出現的不準確之處不承擔任何責任。今天，我們的言論以及隨後的問答的版權歸伯靈頓商店所有。本次電話會議中有關未來預期、事件、策略、目標、趨勢或預期財務結果的言論可能會受到某些風險和不確定性的影響。實際結果可能與此類前瞻性陳述中預測的結果有重大差異。此類風險和不確定性包括公司 2023 財年 10-K 以及向 SEC 提交的其他文件中描述的風險和不確定性，所有這些風險和不確定性均透過引用明確納入本文。

Please note that the financial results and expectations we discuss today are on a continuing operations basis. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures we discuss today to GAAP measures are included in today's press release.

請注意，我們今天討論的財務表現和預期是在持續經營的基礎上進行的。我們今天討論的非公認會計原則措施與公認會計原則措施的調節包含在今天的新聞稿中。

Now here's Michael.

現在麥可來了。

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I would like to cover four topics this morning. Firstly, I will discuss our third-quarter results. Secondly, I will review our fourth-quarter outlook.

謝謝你，大衛。大家早安，感謝您加入我們。今天上午我想談四個主題。首先，我將討論我們的第三季業績。其次，我將回顧我們第四季的展望。

Thirdly, I will share some comments on our longer-term model and, specifically, our new store program. And lastly, I will describe our preliminary thinking on our sales and earnings growth outlook for 2025. Then I will pass the call to Kristin to share the financial details. Okay. Let's start with our Q3 results.

第三，我將分享一些對我們的長期模式，特別是我們的新店計畫的評論。最後，我將描述我們對 2025 年銷售和獲利成長前景的初步思考。然後我會將電話轉給克里斯汀，分享財務詳細資訊。好的。讓我們從第三季的結果開始。

Total sales increased 11% in the third quarter on top of 12% sales growth last year. The major driver of this growth is our new store opening program. We continue to be very pleased with the performance of our new stores, and we are excited by the strength of our new store pipeline. I will talk more about our new store program in a few moments. Comp store sales for the third quarter increased 1%.

在去年 12% 的銷售額成長基礎上，第三季總銷售額成長了 11%。這一增長的主要推動力是我們的新店開業計劃。我們仍然對新店的業績感到非常滿意，並且對新店通路的實力感到興奮。稍後我將詳細討論我們的新商店計劃。第三季比較店銷售額成長了 1%。

This was on top of 6% comp growth in the same period in 2023. Our comp sales trend in the third quarter was impacted by significantly warmer temperatures than last year. After stripping out the impact of these warmer temperatures, our underlying comp store sales growth was very healthy. To explain and illustrate this, I'm going to provide more context on our Q3 comp performance than I normally would. In the past, I have described Q3 as having two very distinct sales drivers.

這是在 2023 年同期 6% 的複合成長率之上的。我們第三季的銷售趨勢受到了比去年明顯變暖的氣溫的影響。在排除氣溫升高的影響後，我們的基礎商店銷售成長非常健康。為了解釋和說明這一點，我將提供比平常更多的有關第三季業績表現的背景資訊。過去，我曾將第三季描述為有兩個截然不同的銷售驅動因素。

For the first half of the period, the trend is dominated by back-to-school selling. Typically, this lasts through the second week of September, after that, the trend depends critically on the weather. If the temperature for the remainder of the quarter is cooler than last year, then that helps to drive positive comp growth. On the other hand, if it is warmer than last year, then that is a headwind to comp. At Burlington, we are particularly sensitive to warmer weather in Q3.

上半年，趨勢以返校銷售為主。通常，這種情況會持續到九月的第二週，之後的趨勢很大程度上取決於天氣。如果本季剩餘時間的氣溫比去年涼爽，那麼這有助於推動公司的正成長。另一方面，如果天氣比去年溫暖，那麼這對比較來說就是一個逆風。在伯靈頓，我們對第三季溫暖的天氣特別敏感。

Many shoppers still think of us as Burlington Coat Factory. In October, our cold weather businesses represent almost 1/4 of our sales. This is significantly higher than our peers. Let me break down our comp performance in Q3. In the first six weeks of the quarter, our quarter-to-date trend was up 6%.

許多購物者仍然認為我們是伯靈頓服裝廠。10 月份，我們的寒冷天氣業務幾乎占我們銷售額的 1/4。這明顯高於我們的同行。讓我來分析一下我們在第三季的表現。在本季的前六週，我們的季度迄今趨勢成長了 6%。

We were very happy with our back-to-school performance. Then from mid-September onwards, the trend dropped off significantly. This was driven by much warmer temperatures than last year. I'm going to illustrate this impact with a couple of data points. We track and internally report the sales trend for cold weather categories.

我們對返校後的表現非常滿意。然後從9月中旬開始，趨勢明顯回落。這是由比去年溫暖得多的氣溫所推動的。我將用幾個數據點來說明這種影響。我們追蹤並內部報告寒冷天氣類別的銷售趨勢。

These include all the areas that you might imagine, coats, hats, boots, fleece, and so on. For Q3 as a whole, the categories represent about 15% of sales. This mix is much lower in August. Then, as I described a moment ago, by October, this mix expands to almost 1/4 of our business. In Q3, the comp store sales trend for these categories was down in the negative teens. Meanwhile, our comp trend in non-cold weather categories, which represents 85% of our business in Q3 was up 4%.

其中包括您可能想像的所有領域，外套、帽子、靴子、羊毛等等。就整個第三季而言，這些品類約佔銷售額的 15%。八月這個比例要低得多。然後，正如我剛才所描述的，到 10 月份，這種組合幾乎擴大到我們業務的 1/4。第三季度，這些類別的比較店銷售趨勢呈現負數下降。同時，占我們第三季業務 85% 的非寒冷天氣類別的比較趨勢成長了 4%。

In other words, the impact of warmer weather was worth 3 points of comp. If you strip out this impact, then our underlying comp trend in Q3 was positive 4%. This is consistent with the trend that we have seen since March of this year. I should add that this analysis probably understates our underlying trend in Q3. Unseasonably warm temperatures do not just impact the comp sales trend for cold weather merchandise, they also -- they're also a drag on overall traffic coming into the store, which affects every business.

換句話說，天氣變暖的影響相當於 3 分。如果剔除此影響，那麼我們第三季的基本比較趨勢為正 4%。這與我們自今年三月以來所看到的趨勢是一致的。我應該補充一點，這項分析可能低估了我們第三季的基本趨勢。異常的溫暖氣溫不僅會影響寒冷天氣商品的銷售趨勢，還會拖累進入商店的整體客流量，從而影響到每項業務。

Anyway, even leaving aside this additional point, we are very encouraged with our underlying comp sales trend. In addition to the strong underlying trend, I was also very pleased with our margin performance in Q3, 80 basis points of margin improvement on 1% comp sales growth. As Kristin will describe later in this call, this was a very high-quality increase driven by higher merchant margin and supply chain savings.

無論如何，即使拋開這一點，我們對我們的基本銷售趨勢感到非常鼓舞。除了強勁的基本趨勢之外，我對第三季的利潤率表現也非常滿意，在 1% 的銷售成長的基礎上，利潤率提高了 80 個基點。正如克里斯汀稍後將在本次電話會議中描述的那樣，這是由更高的商家利潤和供應鏈節省推動的非常高品質的成長。

I would like to make one other point about Q3. Early in the quarter, when we saw strong back to school selling, we were careful not to overreact to this. One of the advantages of a conservative plan is that it makes it easier to keep tight control over liquidity and receipts. This means that in the back half of September, we were able to react quickly to the unseasonably warm temperatures.

關於第三季度，我還想再說一點。在本季初，當我們看到返校銷售強勁時，我們小心翼翼地避免對此反應過度。保守計劃的優點之一是更容易嚴格控制流動性和收入。這意味著在九月下旬，我們能夠對異常溫暖的氣溫做出快速反應。

So despite the sudden slowdown in the sales trend in September and October, at the end of the quarter, our selling inventory on a comp basis was down 2% versus last year. I've talked about this in the past. As an off-price retailer, it is important not just to chase the sales trend when it is strong, but to react quickly when it softens.

因此，儘管 9 月和 10 月的銷售趨勢突然放緩，但到季度末，我們的銷售庫存與去年同期相比下降了 2%。我過去曾談過這個問題。作為一家折扣零售商，重要的是不僅要在銷售趨勢強勁時追逐銷售趨勢，而且在銷售趨勢疲軟時迅速做出反應。

I am very happy with how our teams reacted in Q3. Because of these actions, our inventories are clean and current, and we are in great shape as we enter the critical holiday selling period. This is a good segue way to our Q4 guidance. For all the reasons I have described, we are optimistic about holiday and Q4 as a whole. For November month-to-date, sales are running ahead of plan.

我對我們團隊在第三季的反應感到非常滿意。由於這些行動，我們的庫存乾淨且最新，並且在進入關鍵的假期銷售期時我們處於良好狀態。這是我們第四季指導的一個很好的延續方式。出於我所描述的所有原因，我們對假期和整個第四季持樂觀態度。11 月至今，銷售量超出計畫。

With that said, the big sales weeks are still ahead of us. And as you have probably heard from other retailers, the holiday calendar, specifically the number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, is relatively compressed this year. Given these factors, we are maintaining our previously issued guidance range of flat to 2% comp growth in Q4.

話雖如此，大銷售週仍在等著我們。正如您可能從其他零售商那裡聽說的那樣，今年的假期日曆，特別是感恩節和聖誕節之間的天數相對壓縮。考慮到這些因素，我們維持先前發布的第四季度同比增長 2% 的指導範圍。

I would like to pivot now and talk about our long-term model. A year ago, we shared our financial goals and assumptions for the next five years. The headlines from that discussion was that by 2028, we expect to grow total sales to about $16 billion and operating income to $1.6 billion. Overall, we feel very good about the progress that we are making towards these goals.

我現在想談談我們的長期模式。一年前，我們分享了未來五年的財務目標和假設。這次討論的頭條新聞是，到 2028 年，我們預計總銷售額將增至約 160 億美元，營業收入將增至 16 億美元。總體而言，我們對實現這些目標所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

On our Q4 call in early March, we will get into more specifics and provide a scorecard, if you like, and some commentary on key metrics and assumptions. But I would like to take a few moments today to provide an update on one of the most important drivers of this long-range model, our new store opening program. Including a handful of stores that we opened this month, we have now opened a gross total of 147 new stores this year.

在 3 月初的第四季度電話會議上，我們將討論更多細節，並提供記分卡（如果您願意）以及對關鍵指標和假設的一些評論。但我今天想花一些時間來介紹這款長續航車型最重要的驅動因素之一的最新情況，即我們的新店開業計劃。算上本月新開的幾家店，今年我們總共新開了 147 家門市。

This is comprised of 116 new stores and 31 relocations of older oversized existing stores. After factoring in 15 store closures, we are now projecting that we will end 2024 with 101 net new stores. Almost all of the stores that we have opened this year are our 25,000-square-foot prototype. And most of these stores are in busy script malls with national co-tenants. We are making rapid progress in transforming our chain.

其中包括 116 家新店和 31 家搬遷的舊超大型現有商店。考慮到 15 家門市關閉後，我們現在預計到 2024 年年底，我們將淨增 101 家新店。我們今年開的幾乎所有店都是我們25,000平方英尺的原型店。這些商店大多位於繁忙的劇本購物中心，並有全國性的合作租戶。我們在連鎖店轉型方面取得了快速進展。

As we have disclosed previously, on average, we expect new stores to run at about $7 million in sales volume in their first full year. It is early, but our 2024 new stores are running well ahead of this expectation. Also, as we have disclosed in the past, we expect store relocations to see an average sales lift of 10%. I am pleased to say that our 2024 relocations are running well ahead of this expectation. Again, it is early, but these run rates reinforce our confidence and our excitement in our new store program over the next several years.

正如我們之前所揭露的，平均而言，我們預計新店第一個全年的銷售額約為 700 萬美元。現在還為時過早，但我們 2024 年新店的營運情況遠遠超出了這一預期。此外，正如我們過去所揭露的那樣，我們預計商店搬遷後的平均銷售額將提升 10%。我很高興地說，我們 2024 年的搬遷進展遠遠超出了這個預期。再說一次，現在還為時過早，但這些運行率增強了我們對未來幾年新店計畫的信心和興奮。

Separately, I would like to comment on our new store pipeline. We typically build our new store pipeline by identifying attractive potential new store locations and working directly with individual landlords to secure and lease these sites. I would anticipate that this will continue to be our primary approach going forward. But in the past couple of years, we have been able to supplement our new store pipeline by selectively acquiring existing leases from retailers that are going through a bankruptcy process. This approach has allowed us to move into centers that we might not have otherwise been able to access.

另外，我想評論一下我們的新商店管道。我們通常透過確定具有吸引力的潛在新店位置並直接與個別業主合作來確保和租賃這些地點來建立我們的新店通路。我預計這將繼續是我們未來的主要方法。但在過去幾年中，我們已經能夠透過選擇性地從正在經歷破產程序的零售商那裡收購現有租賃來補充我們的新店通路。這種方法使我們能夠進入原本無法進入的中心。

Of course, as you would expect, we carefully evaluate the detailed economics of these locations before making any bid. In 2023, we picked up 64 former Bed Bath & Beyond locations through this process. And this year, we have picked up or are working on a few dozen locations from other troubled retailers. We are excited about the quality and the full economic potential of these stores. Adding these deals to our existing pipeline and with the prospect of more opportunities ahead, we are very well positioned to open 100 net new stores in 2025 as well as meet or even exceed our 500 net new store opening goals for the period 2024 through 2028.

當然，正如您所期望的，我們在出價之前會仔細評估這些地點的詳細經濟狀況。2023 年，我們透過這個流程挑選了 6​​4 家以前的 Bed Bath & Beyond 門市。今年，我們已經從其他陷入困境的零售商那裡挑選或正在建造數十個地點。我們對這些商店的品質和全部經濟潛力感到興奮。將這些交易加入我們現有的通路中，並展望未來更多的機會，我們完全有能力在2025 年淨開設100 家新店，並達到甚至超過我們在2024 年至2028 年期間淨開設500 家新店的目標。

That is all I plan to say today about our long-range model. We will come back in March and provide a more comprehensive update on progress towards our goals. In a moment, I will hand the call over to Kristin. But before I do, let me talk about our outlook for 2025. We think that there is a lot of uncertainty in the year ahead.

這就是我今天要說的關於我們的遠端模型的全部內容。我們將在三月回來提供有關我們目標進展的更全面的最新資訊。一會兒我會把電話轉給克里斯汀。但在此之前，讓我先談談我們對 2025 年的展望。我們認為未來一年存在著許多不確定性。

It is difficult to forecast what will happen with the economy and with consumer spending, and, add to that, the potential impact of tariffs, changes in the tax code, and other factors. As we have discussed before, in general, we believe that uncertainty and disruption tend to be good for off-price versus other forms of retail. In addition, there are a number of very exciting internal improvements and initiatives that we believe will help us to drive sales and earnings in the next few years. As we look forward, we feel very optimistic. But when it comes to planning our business, we know that the best cost cut for us is to plan conservatively and be ready to chase.

很難預測經濟和消費者支出將會發生什麼，此外，關稅、稅法變化和其他因素的潛在影響。正如我們之前所討論的，總的來說，我們認為，與其他形式的零售相比，不確定性和顛覆往往有利於低價零售。此外，還有許多非常令人興奮的內部改進和舉措，我們相信這些改進和舉措將幫助我們在未來幾年推動銷售和收入。展望未來，我們感到非常樂觀。但在規劃我們的業務時，我們知道對我們來說最好的成本削減是保守地規劃並做好追逐的準備。

That is what we have done this year. This playbook has worked well for us. So I anticipate that our 2025 outlook will be for total sales growth of up high single digits, driven by 100 net new stores and comp sales growth of flat to 2%. We would expect some modest operating margin expansion at the high end of this comp range. We will update this initial outlook and share more details in our Q4 call in March.

這就是我們今年所做的。這本劇本對我們來說效果很好。因此，我預計，在 100 家淨新店和持平至 2% 的銷售成長的推動下，我們 2025 年的總銷售額成長將達到高個位數。我們預計營業利潤率將在該比較範圍的高端有所擴張。我們將更新這項初步展望，並在 3 月的第四季電話會議中分享更多詳細資訊。

Now I would like to turn the call over to Kristin.

現在我想把電話轉給克里斯汀。

Thank you, Michael, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with our third-quarter results. Total sales grew 11% on top of 12% total sales growth in the third quarter of 2023. Comp sales grew 1%, which was on top of 6% last year. This result was at the midpoint of our guidance range.

謝謝你，邁克爾，大家早安。讓我從第三季的業績開始。2023 年第三季總銷售額成長 12%，總銷售額成長 11%。比較銷售額成長了 1%，高於去年的 6%。該結果位於我們指導範圍的中點。

Our adjusted EBIT margin expanded 80 basis points versus last year. The drivers of this margin expansion were higher gross margin and leverage on supply chain costs. Let me walk through the details. The gross margin rate for the third quarter was 43.9%, an increase of 70 basis points versus last year. This was driven by a 50-basis-point increase in merchandise margin due to strong regular price selling, which generated faster inventory turns and lower markdowns and also due to higher markup from better buying.

我們調整後的息稅前利潤率比去年擴大了 80 個基點。利潤率擴張的驅動因素是更高的毛利率和供應鏈成本的槓桿作用。讓我來詳細介紹一下。第三季毛利率為43.9%，較去年成長70個基點。這是由於正常價格銷售強勁，導致庫存週轉加快和降價降低，以及更好的購買帶來的更高的加價，導致商品利潤率增加了 50 個基點。

Freight expenses decreased 20 basis points in the quarter. Product sourcing costs were $210 million versus $200 million in the third quarter of 2023, decreasing 50 basis points as a percentage of sales. This was entirely driven by supply chain expense leverage from continued progress on our distribution center productivity initiatives. Adjusted SG&A costs in Q3 were 40 basis points lower than last year. When excluding approximately $10 million in expenses, associated with the acquisition of Bed Bath & Beyond leases in the prior year, adjusted SG&A delevered by 10 basis points.

本季貨運費用下降 20 個基點。產品採購成本為 2.1 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 2 億美元，佔銷售額的百分比下降了 50 個基點。這完全是由我們的配送中心生產力計劃的持續進展所帶來的供應鏈費用槓桿所推動的。第三季調整後的 SG&A 成本比去年低 40 個基點。在排除與前一年收購 Bed Bath & Beyond 租賃相關的約 1,000 萬美元費用後，調整後的 SG&A 降低了 10 個基點。

Q3 adjusted EBIT margin was 5.6%, 80 basis points above last year. We had guided to 60 to 80 basis points of improvement. Our adjusted earnings per share in Q3 was $1.55 at the high end of our guidance range and represents a 41% increase versus the prior year. Last year's Q3 2023 results exclude approximately $10 million of pretax expenses associated with Bed Bath & Beyond leases. At the end of the quarter, our comparable store inventories were down 2% versus the end of the third quarter in 2023 as we pulled back on cold weather merchandise receipts in reaction to the unfavorable Q3 weather.

第三季調整後息稅前利潤率為 5.6%，比去年同期高 80 個基點。我們指導改進了 60 到 80 個基點。第三季調整後每股收益為 1.55 美元，處於指導範圍的上限，比上年增長 41%。去年 2023 年第三季的業績不包括與 Bed Bath & Beyond 租賃相關的約 1,000 萬美元的稅前費用。截至本季末，我們的可比商店庫存比 2023 年第三季末下降了 2%，因為我們因第三季的不利天氣而減少了寒冷天氣商品的收入。

At the end of the quarter, our reserve inventory was 32% of our total inventory versus 30% of our inventory last year. We are very pleased with the quality of the merchandise and the values that we have in reserves. During the quarter, we repurchased $56 million in common stock. At the end of Q3, we had $325 million remaining on our share repurchase authorization that expires in August 2025. Before I turn to guidance, I would like to briefly touch on our longer-term supply chain strategy.

截至本季末，我們的儲備庫存佔總庫存的 32%，而去年為 30%。我們對商品的品質和我們儲備的價值非常滿意。本季度，我們回購了 5,600 萬美元的普通股。截至第三季末，我們的股票回購授權仍有 3.25 億美元，授權將於 2025 年 8 月到期。在開始提供指導之前，我想先簡單談談我們的長期供應鏈策略。

As we've discussed previously, going forward, we would like to own rather than lease new distribution centers. This will enable us to design these facilities to support the flexibility and efficiency that our off-price model requires. We have a new 2 million-square foot DC under construction in Savannah, Georgia, that is on target to be open in 2026. We intend to own this facility. As a reminder, as previously discussed, we expect our CapEx in 2024 and 2025 to be around 7% of sales, slightly higher than our historical levels.

正如我們之前討論的，展望未來，我們希望擁有而不是租賃新的配送中心。這將使我們能夠設計這些設施，以支持我們的折扣模式所需的靈活性和效率。我們正在喬治亞州薩凡納建設一座佔地 200 萬平方英尺的新配送中心，預計 2026 年開放。我們打算擁有這個設施。提醒一下，如前所述，我們預計 2024 年和 2025 年的資本支出將佔銷售額的 7% 左右，略高於我們的歷史水準。

This is driven by our new store opening program and our investment in new distribution centers. In addition, we may also explore opportunities to take ownership of an existing lease distribution center. It is possible that this might make sense for one or two of our existing lease DCs, and we would only pursue opportunities where the economics work. These opportunistic buy versus lease deals are not factored into the CapEx levels that we have discussed previously. Now I will turn to our outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024.

這是由我們的新店開業計劃和對新配送中心的投資所推動的。此外，我們也可能探索取得現有租賃配送中心所有權的機會。這對我們現有的一兩個租賃 DC 來說可能是有意義的，而且我們只會在經濟有效的情況下尋求機會。這些機會主義購買與租賃交易並未計入我們先前討論的資本支出水準。現在我將談談我們對 2024 財年第四季的展望。

We are maintaining our fourth-quarter 2024 guidance for comp sales, total sales, EBIT margin, and earnings per share. We are guiding comparable store sales to be flat to up 2% with total sales to increase 5% to 7% for the fourth quarter. We expect our fourth quarter adjusted EBIT margin to decrease by 50 to 80 basis points unchanged from our previous outlook. This margin outlook still translates to adjusted earnings per share range of $3.55 to $3.75. And it's important to note, as we discussed on our last quarter's earnings call, that the 53rd week calendar shift has a negative impact on Q4 total sales, adjusted EBIT margin and adjusted earnings per share.

我們維持 2024 年第四季公司銷售額、總銷售額、息稅前利潤率和每股盈餘的指引。我們預計第四季可比商店銷售額將持平至成長 2%，而總銷售額將成長 5% 至 7%。我們預計第四季度調整後息稅前利潤率將與先前的預期相比下降 50 至 80 個基點。這一利潤率前景仍適用於 3.55 美元至 3.75 美元的調整後每股收益範圍。值得注意的是，正如我們在上一季的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，第53 週的日曆轉換對第四季度的總銷售額、調整後的息稅前利潤率和調整後的每股收益產生了負面影響。

For fiscal 2024, after factoring in our actual Q3 results and Q4 guidance, this outlook implies comp store sales growth of approximately 2%, total sales to increase 9% to 10%, and EBIT margins to range from an increase of 60 basis points to 70 basis points. Finally, factoring in Q3 actuals, full year 2024 adjusted earnings per share is now expected to be in the range of $7.76 to $7.96.

對於2024 財年，在考慮到我們第三季度的實際業績和第四季度的指導後，這一前景意味著同店銷售額增長約2%，總銷售額將增長9% 至10%，息稅前利潤率將成長60 個基點至70個基點。最後，考慮到第三季的實際情況，預計 2024 年全年調整後每股收益將在 7.76 美元至 7.96 美元之間。

I will now turn the call back to Michael.

我現在將把電話轉回給邁克爾。

Thank you, Kristin. Before I turn the call over to questions, I would like to emphasize three key points from today's call. Firstly, we feel very good about the underlying comp trend that we achieved in the third quarter. Our comp trend after factoring out cold weather categories was around 4%. This was consistent with our comp trend since March of this year.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。在將電話轉入提問之前，我想強調今天電話中的三個要點。首先，我們對第三季實現的基本比較趨勢感到非常滿意。排除寒冷天氣類別後，我們的比較趨勢約為 4%。這與我們自今年三月以來的比較趨勢一致。

We're also very pleased with our margin performance in Q3. We achieved 80 basis points of leverage on 1% comp growth. Secondly, we believe that we are well positioned as we enter the key holiday selling period in Q4. We are managing our business cautiously, but based on our underlying sales trend in the third quarter and on the strength of our holiday assortments, we are optimistic about our prospects. Thirdly, we feel very good about the progress we are making towards our longer-term financial goals.

我們對第三季的利潤率表現也非常滿意。我們在 1% 的複合成長率上實現了 80 個基點的槓桿率。其次，我們相信，隨著我們進入第四季度的關鍵假期銷售期，我們已處於有利位置。我們正在謹慎管理我們的業務，但根據我們第三季的基本銷售趨勢和我們的假日品種的實力，我們對我們的前景感到樂觀。第三，我們對實現長期財務目標所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

We will talk more about this progress in our year-end call in March. But we are especially pleased with our new store opening program. The early performance of our 2024 stores has been strong, and our new store pipeline for 2025 and beyond looks very good.

我們將在三月的年終電話會議上更多地討論這項進展。但我們對新店開幕計畫特別滿意。我們 2024 年門市的早期業績一直強勁，我們 2025 年及以後的新店管道看起來也非常好。

I would now like to turn the call over for your questions.

我現在想轉接電話詢問您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Matthew Boss，摩根大通。

So maybe, Michael, just to kick off on your cold weather businesses and the sensitivity to warmer weather that you cited, in your remarks, you said that the weather impacted your 3Q comp by 300 basis points. Does this include the impact from hurricanes? And then just looking forward, do you see risk in the fourth quarter if the weather were to be unseasonably warm? Or just any additional color on November, maybe fourth quarter-to-date trends, I think, would be really great.

因此，邁克爾，也許只是為了開始介紹您在寒冷天氣下的業務以及您在講話中提到的對溫暖天氣的敏感性，您說天氣對您的第三季度業績影響了 300 個基點。這包括颶風的影響嗎？然後展望未來，如果天氣異常溫暖，您認為第四季度有風險嗎？或者只是十一月的任何額外顏色，也許第四季度迄今為止的趨勢，我認為，會非常好。

Before I answer your question, I would like to make a comment about our cold weather businesses. I realize that in listening to our prepared remarks today, investors might get the mistaken impression that our strong position in cold weather merchandise is somehow a problem. It is absolutely not. The fact that we are one of the first retailers that shoppers think of when they need outerwear is a huge strength for us and a source of competitive advantage. The outerwear business is a great business. We are very good at it, and we will continue to look for ways to build and strengthen that business.

在回答您的問題之前，我想對我們的寒冷天氣業務發表評論。我意識到，在聆聽我們今天準備好的演講時，投資者可能會產生錯誤的印象，認為我們在寒冷天氣商品方面的強勢地位在某種程度上是一個問題。絕對不是。事實上，我們是購物者在需要外套時首先想到的零售商之一，這對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢，也是競爭優勢的來源。外套業務是一項偉大的業務。我們非常擅長這一點，我們將繼續尋找建立和加強該業務的方法。

So with that said, of course, we know that there will be temperature variations from year to year, especially in a transitional month like October, but those variations tend to even out over time. After in October like the one we've just had, where temperatures were well above the long-term average, the odds are very good that the temperature next October will be cooler than this year. And that's likely to be a tailwind to our comp in 2025. If that happens, then we'll probably call that out on this call next year, and you can be sure that we will not be complaining about it.

話雖如此，我們當然知道每年都會有溫度變化，特別是在十月這樣的過渡月份，但這些變化往往會隨著時間的推移而趨於平衡。就像我們剛經歷的十月一樣，氣溫遠高於長期平均水平，明年十月的氣溫很有可能會比今年涼爽。這可能會成為我們 2025 年業績的順風車。如果發生這種情況，那麼我們可能會在明年的電話會議上指出這一點，並且您可以確定我們不會對此抱怨。

The key thing with cold weather categories is to be ready for those fluctuations and to manage the business flexibly, so we can react up or down. I should also add that as an off-price retailer, there is a silver lining for us. In years like this, where the season to date has been unusually warm, it's likely that in the coming weeks, we will see a lot of terrific buying opportunities in outerwear that we can put into reserve and bring out next year. So with all that as a preface, let me address your specific question. The 3 points of comp that we discussed in the prepared remarks relate exclusively to the impact of warm temperatures.

寒冷天氣類別的關鍵是要為這些波動做好準備並靈活地管理業務，以便我們可以向上或向下做出反應。我還應該補充一點，作為一家折扣零售商，我們還有一線希望。在這樣的年份裡，迄今為止的季節異常溫暖，在接下來的幾週內，我們很可能會看到很多外套的絕佳購買機會，我們可以將其儲備起來並在明年推出。因此，作為序言，讓我來回答您的具體問題。我們在準備好的評論中討論的 3 點補償僅與溫暖氣溫的影響有關。

Separately, we estimate that major hurricanes in Q3 impacted our comp by about an additional point. It's not hard for us to estimate that. We can look at local stores that were affected by the hurricanes. We can quantify the impact on their sales during the hurricane period and during any subsequent power outage. Anyway, the bottom line is if you strip out the warmer temperatures and the hurricane impact, then our third-quarter comp growth would have been 5%.

另外，我們估計第三季的重大颶風對我們的業績造成了約額外的影響。我們不難估計這一點。我們可以看看受颶風影響的當地商店。我們可以量化颶風期間以及隨後停電期間對其銷售的影響。無論如何，最重要的是，如果剔除氣溫升高和颶風影響，那麼我們第三季的複合成長率將為 5%。

Now by the way, we -- our rationale for not calling out that hurricane impact in the prepared remarks is that we recognize that, that affects all retailers or at least all retailers with a presence in those areas. In contrast, the reason that we called out the warmer temperatures or the impact of warmer temperatures is that for all the reasons we've described, those warmer temperatures at this time of year differentially affect us versus other retail companies. Maybe just wrapping up, on the last part of your question about weather risk in Q4, of course, there might be unfavorable or favorable weather in Q4. It's hard to predict, but there are a couple of reasons why we're comfortable with that risk. Firstly, as I said in the remarks, the quarter is off to a good start with November month-to-date running ahead of plan.

順便說一句，我們在準備好的演講中沒有指出颶風影響的理由是，我們認識到，這會影響所有零售商或至少影響所有在這些地區開展業務的零售商。相較之下，我們之所以指出氣溫升高或氣溫升高的影響，是因為出於我們所描述的所有原因，每年這個時候的氣溫升高對我們的影響與其他零售公司的影響不同。也許只是結束，關於你關於第四季度天氣風險的問題的最後一部分，當然，第四季度可能會有不利或有利的天氣。這很難預測，但有幾個原因讓我們對這種風險感到放心。首先，正如我在發言中所說，本季開局良好，11 月至今已超出計劃。

And secondly, it's important to understand that as we get further into the quarter, cold weather selling becomes less important relative to holiday selling and gift giving. In other words, for the next five, six weeks, the customer could come into the store looking for outerwear, but at this point, they're more likely to be looking for toys or gifts or holiday merchandise. Our early selling in those businesses has been strong. So we're optimistic about Q4.

其次，重要的是要了解，隨著我們進入本季度，寒冷天氣銷售相對於假日銷售和禮品贈送變得不那麼重要。換句話說，在接下來的五到六週內，顧客可能會走進商店尋找外套，但此時，他們更有可能尋找玩具、禮品或節日商品。我們早期在這些業務中的銷售一直很強勁。所以我們對第四季持樂觀態度。

Great. And then a follow-up for Kristin. If you could just elaborate on your comments about inventory levels exiting the third quarter. If there's any imbalance with outerwear inventory tied to the slower 3Q sales trend or just any residual markdown risk to consider in the fourth quarter?

偉大的。然後是克里斯汀的後續行動。您能否詳細闡述您對第三季庫存水準的評論。是否存在與第三季銷售趨勢放緩相關的外套庫存失衡，或第四季度需要考慮的剩餘降價風險？

Regarding inventory levels, we were very pleased with how we manage inventory during the third quarter. As Michael described, our merchants were careful not to overreact to the strong back to school selling in the first half of the quarter. We reacted quickly to the warmer temperatures and the resulting challenging sales trends and pulled back on receipts. And as a result, as I mentioned, we ended Q3 with comp store inventories down 2%.

關於庫存水平，我們對第三季的庫存管理方式非常滿意。正如邁克爾所描述的，我們的商家小心翼翼地避免對本季上半季返校後的強勁銷售反應過度。我們對氣溫升高以及由此帶來的具有挑戰性的銷售趨勢做出了迅速反應，並減少了收入。結果，正如我所提到的，我們在第三季結束時，商店庫存下降了 2%。

Our inventories are clean and current, and we do not have a major markdown liability heading into the fourth quarter. And finally, as it relates to reserve inventory, our penetration increased to 32% of total inventory versus 30% last year. We are very happy with the great buys we were able to make. We feel good about our reserves, especially the content and values. And finally, I should add, as Michael just mentioned, this slow start to outerwear could perhaps translate to great buying opportunities in the category later in the season.

我們的庫存乾淨且最新，進入第四季我們沒有重大降價負債。最後，就儲備庫存而言，我們的滲透率從去年的 30% 增加到總庫存的 32%。我們對能夠進行的大量購買感到非常滿意。我們對我們的儲備感到滿意，尤其是內容和價值。最後，我應該補充一點，正如邁克爾剛才提到的，外套的緩慢起步也許會轉化為本季晚些時候該類別的巨大購買機會。

Ike Boruchow, Wells Fargo.

艾克·博魯喬（Ike Boruchow），富國銀行。

Two for me, Michael. First, I guess I was wondering if you could share -- you've helped us out in the past, just comments on the health of the low-income consumer. I know dollar stores have been struggling this year, but this doesn't seem to have affected your business. I guess, just what are you seeing in your customer research, your underlying trends within that segment would be great.

邁克爾，給我兩個。首先，我想我想知道你是否可以分享一下——你過去幫助過我們，只是對低收入消費者的健康發表了評論。我知道一元商店今年一直在苦苦掙扎，但這似乎並沒有影響您的業務。我想，正如您在客戶研究中看到的那樣，您在該細分市場中的潛在趨勢將會很棒。

As you know, the lower income customer is a very important customer to us. We tend to index much higher among this demographic than our retail peers. We're very focused on offering great value to that customer. And I would say that we're more tuned in now, more tuned in than we ever were before into what is happening with that customer demographic.

如您所知，低收入客戶對我們來說是非常重要的客戶。我們在這一人群中的指數往往比零售同業高得多。我們非常專注於為該客戶提供巨大的價值。我想說的是，我們現在比以往任何時候都更了解客戶群正在發生的事情。

I can't really comment on what's happening with dollar stores. Their business is so different to ours, given their focus on consumables. But instead, let me describe what we are seeing with the data we have around the lower-income customer. One of the things that we track very closely is the performance of our stores based on the demographics of their local trade area. So we segment our stores based upon the demographics of the local trade area, and we look at their sales trend.

我無法真正評論一元商店的情況。他們的業務與我們的業務非常不同，因為他們專注於消耗品。但相反，讓我描述一下我們透過低收入客戶的數據所看到的情況。我們密切跟踪的事情之一是我們商店根據當地貿易區域的人口統計數據的表現。因此，我們根據當地貿易區域的人口統計資料對商店進行細分，並研究他們的銷售趨勢。

Some of our highest volume and most productive stores are in lower income trade areas. And two years ago, in 2022, those stores were underperforming the chain. Now because they are relatively high volume, that had a big impact on our overall comp trend. If I fast forward to today, our stores in lower income trade areas are outperforming the chain.

我們的一些銷量最高、生產力最高的商店位於收入較低的貿易區域。兩年前，也就是 2022 年，這些商店的業績落後於連鎖店。現在，因為它們的銷售量相對較高，這對我們的整體比較趨勢產生了很大影響。如果我快轉到今天，我們在低收入貿易地區的商店的表現優於連鎖店。

Based on comments that we've heard from other discretionary retailers that are focused on lower-income customers, we think that may be part of a general trend. We think that customer is looking for great value. And maybe for the first time since 2021, it looks like their real incomes are finally edging up.

根據我們從其他專注於低收入客戶的非必需品零售商那裡聽到的評論，我們認為這可能是整體趨勢的一部分。我們認為客戶正在尋找巨大的價值。也許這是自 2021 年以來第一次，他們的實際收入終於開始小幅上升。

I should also add that in that analysis of store performance by trade area demographics, we are seeing healthy performance in other income bands as well, and we see that as evidence that shoppers from moderate to hiring compounds may be trading down. But coming back to the lower income customer. As we've discussed previously, that customer really bore the brunt of cost of living increases in 2022. Unlike other income groups, those shoppers don't have savings or debt capacity that they can use to cushion the impact of higher rent or grocery prices.

我還應該補充一點，在按貿易區域人口統計對商店業績進行分析時，我們也看到了其他收入階層的健康表現，並且我們認為這證明中等至僱用複合型的購物者可能會降低消費。但回到低收入客戶。正如我們之前討論的，該客戶確實在 2022 年生活成本上漲中首當其衝。與其他收入群體不同，這些購物者沒有儲蓄或債務能力來緩衝租金或雜貨價格上漲的影響。

So in 2022, that customer had to pull back sharply on discretionary spending. Over the past year or so, what we're seeing is that as their real incomes have stabilized and started to pick back up, they're spending more. And we think that's helping to support the strength of our underlying trends.

因此，到 2022 年，該客戶必須大幅削減可自由支配支出。在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們看到，隨著他們的實際收入穩定並開始回升，他們的支出增加了。我們認為這有助於支持我們潛在趨勢的力量。

Got it. Super helpful. And then maybe a follow-up for Kristin. Just on margin expansion, can you maybe give us additional color on the drivers of the margin in Q3? And maybe just some details on the Q4 guide. What's embedded in your plan for Q4 margin?

知道了。超有幫助。然後也許是克里斯汀的後續行動。就利潤率擴張而言，您能否為我們提供有關第三季利潤率驅動因素的更多資​​訊？也許只是第四季指南的一些細節。您的第四季利潤計畫包含哪些內容？

I'll start with the third quarter. We were pleased to deliver the 80 basis points of operating margin expansion, especially on a 1% comp. I'll provide a little bit more color on those drivers. Within the gross margin line, merch margin was up 50 basis points.

我將從第三季開始。我們很高興實現營業利潤率擴張 80 個基點，特別是以 1% 的比較計算。我將為這些驅動程式提供更多的資訊。在毛利率水準內，商品利潤率上升了 50 個基點。

This was driven by lower markdowns as we had strong regular price selling and faster turns. We also got a bit of help from higher markup driven by better buying. And then in gross margin freight as a percentage of sales also improved by 20 basis points. Moving down on product sourcing costs. As we mentioned, supply chain leverage by 50 basis points.

這是由於我們有強勁的常規價格銷售和更快的周轉，因此降價幅度較低。我們也從更好的購買推動的更高的標價中得到了一些幫助。然後，運費佔銷售額的毛利率也提高了 20 個基點。降低產品採購成本。正如我們所提到的，供應鏈槓桿率提高了 50 個基點。

This was driven by our continued progress on our efficiency initiatives. These are primarily productivity improvements in distribution centers. And then excluding the impact of Bed Bath & Beyond leases last year, adjusted SG&A was higher by 10 basis points due to deleverage of fixed costs on a 1% comp. And the balance of the P&L delevered by about 30 basis points, including depreciation and other income. So that was kind of the third quarter.

這是我們在效率措施方面不斷取得進展所推動的。這些主要是配送中心生產力的提升。然後排除去年 Bed Bath & Beyond 租賃的影響，由於固定成本去槓桿化（以 1% 計算），調整後的 SG&A 提高了 10 個基點。損益表餘額減少了約30個基點，包括折舊和其他收入。這就是第三季的情況。

If we turn now to the fourth quarter, we're maintaining our previously issued guidance. So that was a 5% to 7% total sales growth, a flat to 2% comp growth, and a 50- to 80-basis-point decline in EBIT margin. And there are several drivers of the lower projected EBIT margin in Q4 that I want to talk through. First, we have a few transitory headwinds in gross margin in the fourth quarter. There's some incremental ocean freight costs in merch margin that we referenced on last quarter's call with the exposure to the spot market.

如果我們現在轉向第四季度，我們將維持先前發布的指導。因此，總銷售額成長 5% 至 7%，年成長持平至 2%，息稅前利潤率下降 50 至 80 個基點。我想談談第四季度預計息稅前利潤率較低的幾個驅動因素。首先，第四季的毛利率面臨一些暫時的阻力。我們在上季的電話會議中提到，由於現貨市場的曝險，商品利潤中的海運成本增加。

And clearance levels are expected to be more similar to last year's levels that will provide less merch margin benefit than we've seen year to date. Secondly, we're accruing a higher year-over-year shortage rate compared to last year. We will, of course, true this up with our physical inventory at the end of the fiscal year. Thirdly, we're lapping the cost savings in our supply chain that we started to benefit from in the fourth quarter last year. So there are less supply chain productivity benefits we expect in Q4.

預計清倉水準將與去年的水準更加相似，這將提供比我們今年迄今為止看到的更少的商品利潤收益。其次，與去年相比，我們的年比短缺率更高。當然，我們將在本財政年度結束時透過我們的實體庫存來驗證這一點。第三，我們正在努力實現供應鏈中的成本節約，我們從去年第四季開始受益。因此，我們預期第四季的供應鏈生產力效益將會減少。

And the final point on the fourth quarter, as we discussed in last quarter's call, there is an impact for us with the 53rd-week calendar shift. We're about one week ahead of last year when we compare the quarters year over year. So for comp store sales, we shift or we adjust for this and we line up the weeks. But for total sales growth, there's an impact on sales, margin, and earnings. Essentially, we lose a high volume, higher-margin week in November, and then we gain a lower volume -- lower margin week in January, and this translates into lower total sales growth in Q4 versus last year, and we experienced more fixed cost deleverage.

第四季的最後一點，正如我們在上個季度電話會議中所討論的那樣，第 53 週的日曆變化對我們產生了影響。當我們逐年比較各季度時，我們比去年提前了大約一周。因此，對於比較商店的銷售，我們會對此進行調整或調整，並按週進行排列。但對於總銷售額成長而言，這會對銷售額、利潤率和收益產生影響。從本質上講，我們在11 月失去了銷量較高、利潤率較高的一周，然後我們在1 月份獲得了銷量較低、利潤率較低的一周，這意味著第四季度的總銷售成長低於去年，而且我們經歷了更多的固定成本去槓桿。

So those are really the drivers of Q4 EBIT margin outlook. But one final note I want to make. I wouldn't extrapolate that Q4 margin trend into 2025. There are several transitory and timing factors impacting EBIT margin in Q4. And as we shared in the prepared remarks, we would expect modest operating margin expansion in '25 on a Q comp.

因此，這些確實是第四季度息稅前利潤率前景的驅動因素。但我想最後指出一點。我不會將第四季的利潤率趨勢推斷到 2025 年。有幾個暫時性和時間性因素影響第四季的息稅前利潤率。正如我們在準備好的評論中所分享的那樣，我們預計 25 年 Q 比較的營業利潤率將小幅擴張。

Lorraine Hutchinson, Bank of America.

洛琳‧哈欽森，美國銀行。

Michael, I realize there's a lot of external uncertainty, but what impact do you think the policies of the new administration might have on your business over the next few years? And how are you preparing for this?

邁克爾，我知道外部存在著許多不確定性，但您認為新政府的政策在未來幾年可能會對您的業務產生什麼影響？您為此做了哪些準備？

I think that's what they might call a $64,000 question. The headline, I think, it's very difficult to predict. If I think about it, there are some policies that I could absolutely imagine might help our business, especially policies that enhance the real incomes or the discretionary spending power of our core customers, for example, lower taxes on overtime pay or on tips or higher child tax credit or policies that bring down the cost of energy. And of course, as a separate item, if corporate taxes are reduced, then that would be very helpful to our business in terms of earnings and cash.

我認為這就是他們所謂的 64,000 美元問題。我認為標題很難預測。如果我仔細想想，我絕對可以想像有一些政策可能對我們的業務有幫助，特別是那些提高我們核心客戶的實際收入或可自由支配消費能力的政策，例如降低加班費或小費的稅或更高的稅兒童稅收抵免或降低能源成本的政策。當然，作為一個單獨的項目，如果公司稅減少，那麼這將對我們的業務在收益和現金方面非常有幫助。

We are a domestic US retailer. We don't have foreign subsidiaries. Our earnings are all in the United States. So lower corporate taxes would have a huge impact.

我們是一家美國國內零售商。我們沒有外國子公司。我們的收入都在美國。因此，降低企業稅將產生巨大影響。

Of course, there are also risks and potential headwinds. For example, if inflation were to pick up again or if there were an economic slowdown. And then there are policies such as tariffs or tighter immigration controls or reductions in federal programs. where the potential impact, I think, really depends on the scale of the policy. For example, on tariffs, we don't know how significant those will be, what categories they'll apply to or even which countries. I think we just have to wait and see the details before we make an assessment.

當然，也存在風險和潛在的阻力。例如，通貨膨脹是否再次上升或經濟放緩。然後還有關稅或更嚴格的移民控製或減少聯邦計劃等政策。我認為潛在影響實際上取決於政策的規模。例如，在關稅方面，我們不知道這些關稅有多大，它們將適用於哪些類別，甚至不知道哪些國家。我認為我們只需要等待並查看細節後再做出評估。

But maybe I should just make a general comment. My experience has been that whenever there is significant uncertainty or disruption in the external environment, then while that can be a headwind and a headache for everyone including us in the short term, the uncertainty and disruption is often very good for off-price retail in the end. The reason why uncertainty disruption often work out well for off-price is that the off-price business model when it's well executed, is better able to handle the uncertainty and respond to whatever happens. The implication for us is that we need to execute our business well. In other words, bank conservatively, maintain flexibility, and be ready to react.

但也許我應該發表一般性評論。我的經驗是，每當外部環境出現重大不確定性或乾擾時，雖然這在短期內可能對包括我們在內的每個人來說都是一種逆風和頭痛，但這種不確定性和乾擾往往對折扣零售非常有利。不確定性破壞通常對折扣有很好的效果，因為折扣商業模式如果執行得當，能夠更好地處理不確定性並對發生的任何情況做出反應。對我們來說，這意味著我們需要很好地執行我們的業務。換句話說，保守銀行存款，保持靈活性，並做好反應準備。

If we do that, then there may be some bumps along the road, but I believe that things will work out well for us.

如果我們這樣做，那麼前進的道路上可能會遇到一些坎坷，但我相信事情會對我們有利。

And then Kristin, can you provide any additional details on how you're thinking about the outlook for 2025? In your remarks, you mentioned the possible comp range of flat to plus 2 and some modest margin expansion at the high end. I'm curious about your confidence about the level of margin expansion, and what the major drivers of this expansion are likely to be?

Kristin，您能否提供更多有關您如何看待 2025 年前景的詳細資訊？在您的演講中，您提到了可能的補償範圍為持平到+2，以及高端的一些適度的利潤擴張。我很好奇您對利潤擴張水平的信心，以及這種擴張的主要驅動力可能是什麼？

First, I'd caveat a bit that what we've shared with you is our preliminary plan for fiscal '25, and that could change, obviously, if conditions change over the course of the next few months. And as Michael just described, there really do remain a lot of unknown, whether it's fiscal policy, tariffs or the health of our core customer, et cetera. But that said, given what we know today, we've done a lot of work on our preliminary budget for next year, and we can share some high-level thinking.

首先，我想提醒一下，我們與您分享的是我們 25 財年的初步計劃，如果未來幾個月情況發生變化，顯然，該計劃可能會發生變化。正如麥可剛才所描述的，確實還有很多未知因素，無論是財政政策、關稅或我們核心客戶的健康狀況等等。但話雖如此，鑑於我們今天所了解的情況，我們已經為明年的初步預算做了很多工作，我們可以分享一些高層次的想法。

First, on a flat to 2% comp, we would expect high single-digit revenue growth driven by 100 net new stores. And while we would, of course, strive to do better than this, planning our comp sales and our expenses on the conservative comp range gives us flexibility to react to our business to effectively chase and to flow through any upside as well as more effectively manage any downside risk. And at the 2% comp, we would expect to get some modest operating margin improvement, perhaps 20 to 30 basis points. Similar to 2024, we expect most of the same drivers, including merch margin improvement and continued benefit from supply chain productivity initiatives. I do want to acknowledge that this operating margin expansion is a bit less than where we started fiscal 2024, and there are just a couple of reasons for that.

首先，在 2% 的成長率持平的情況下，我們預計 100 家淨新店將推動營收實現高個位數成長。當然，雖然我們會努力做得更好，但在保守的補償範圍內規劃我們的補償銷售和支出使我們能夠靈活地對我們的業務做出反應，以有效地追逐和利用任何上升空間以及更有效地管理任何下行風險。以 2% 的比較，我們預期營業利潤率會有所改善，也許是 20 到 30 個基點。與 2024 年類似，我們預計大多數驅動因素相同，包括商品利潤率的提高和供應鏈生產力計劃的持續受益。我確實想承認，營業利​​潤率的擴張略低於 2024 財年開始的水平，原因有幾個。

First, we've captured supply chain cost savings at a faster pace than we had expected. In the long-range plan we shared at this time last year, we spoke to driving 100 basis points of supply chain cost savings over the first three years in our long-range plan. We will likely recognize about half of that or around 50 basis points in fiscal 2024. So the balance, we expect over fiscal '25 and '26.

首先，我們以比預期更快的速度實現了供應鏈成本節約。在我們去年這個時候分享的長期計劃中，我們談到了在我們的長期計劃的前三年內推動供應鏈成本節省 100 個基點。到 2024 財年，我們可能會承認其中的一半左右，即 50 個基點左右。因此，我們預計 25 財年和 26 財年將達到平衡。

And secondly, we're being a bit more cautious on freight for next year. We've made very good progress on freight this year. But we want to plan conservatively here based on uncertainty certainly around tariffs and what impact that could have on freight rates next year. So ultimately, we expect the margin improvement on a 2% comp to come from incremental merchandise margin improvement from faster turns and lower markdowns and additional supply chain efficiencies. These will be offset by some deleverage in store costs like occupancy on the 2% comp. And I also want to call out that for every 100 basis points of comp above the 2% comp, we would expect 10 to 15 basis points of incremental EBIT margin.

其次，我們對明年的貨運更加謹慎。今年我們在貨運方面取得了巨大進展。但我們希望根據關稅的不確定性以及這可能對明年的運費產生的影響來保守地制定計劃。因此，最終，我們預計 2% 的利潤率改善將來自於更快的周轉和更低的降價以及額外的供應鏈效率帶來的增量商品利潤率的改善。這些將被商店成本的一些去槓桿化所抵消，例如 2% 的入住率。我還想指出，每比 2% 的比較高出 100 個基點，我們預計息稅前利潤率就會增加 10 到 15 個基點。

So of course, a final caveat, these assumptions could change as the external environment evolves, but I did want to give a sense for our assumptions at this stage as we've done historically.

當然，最後需要注意的是，這些假設可能會隨著外在環境的變化而改變，但我確實想像我們歷史上所做的那樣，為現階段的假設提供一個意義。

John Kernan, TD Cowen.

約翰·克南，TD·考恩。

Congrats on the continued margin expansion. Michael, maybe another $64,000 question here. You've been at Burlington for five years. That's a long time for a CEO in the sector these days. There has been a number of CEO turnover announcements recently, including among one of your off-price peers.

祝賀利潤率持續擴張。邁克爾，也許還有一個價值 64,000 美元的問題。你在伯靈頓已經五年了。對於當今該行業的執行長來說，這已經是很長的時間了。最近發布了多起執行長離職公告，其中包括一位低價同行。

How are you thinking about your own timeframe in the role and how you're feeling about the executive team at Burlington overall?

您如何看待自己擔任該職位的時間表以及您對伯靈頓管理團隊的整體感受如何？

That's two $64,000 questions. That's great. The direct answer to your question is that I'm not going anywhere. I'm a young man, and I'm not thinking of retirement. I'm 100% committed to Burlington.

這是兩個價值 64,000 美元的問題。那太棒了。對你問題的直接回答是我哪裡也不去。我是個年輕人，我並沒有考慮退休。我百分百致力於伯靈頓。

But maybe I should just take a minute to expand on that answer. In 2023 to 2028 long-range plan, we've laid out, I think, fairly ambitious growth goals, 500 net new stores, 60% higher sales and a tripling of operating income. I intend to be around to hit those financial targets. And I should add that those growth numbers are not just are just the beginning for Burlington. We have potential well beyond 2028.

但也許我應該花一點時間來擴展這個答案。我認為，在 2023 年至 2028 年的長期計畫中，我們制定了相當雄心勃勃的成長目標，淨新開 500 家門市，銷售額成長 60%，營業收入成長兩倍。我打算努力實現這些財務目標。我應該補充一點，這些成長數字不只是伯靈頓的開始。2028 年之後我們還有潛力。

Leaving aside the numbers though, on a personal level, I feel really vested in driving our business to its full potential and in the specific initiatives that will get us there. We're doing some tremendously exciting things in merchandising, localization, supply chain, store environment, and with our new store and store relocation programs. And I plan to be right here working with my team to support and help drive those specific programs.

不過，撇開數字不談，就我個人而言，我覺得自己真的有責任推動我們的業務充分發揮潛力，並採取具體舉措來實現這一目標。我們在行銷、在地化、供應鏈、商店環境以及新店和商店搬遷計劃方面正在做一些非常令人興奮的事情。我計劃在這裡與我的團隊合作，以支持和幫助推動這些特定計劃。

So lastly, let me talk about the team. I don't mean to brag, but I genuinely feel like I've assembled the A team here at Burlington. Across the company, we've been able to bring in tremendous talent. That's especially true at the senior level. We have a huge amount of off price experience, but we've also successfully brought in functional and category expertise and experience from other retail environments. Add to that, we have a very strong and experienced base of long tenured and homegrown Burlington talent.

最後，讓我談談團隊。我並不是想吹牛，但我真的覺得我在伯靈頓組建了一流的團隊。在整個公司，我們已經能夠引進大量人才。對於高層來說尤其如此。我們擁有大量的折扣經驗，但我們也成功地引入了來自其他零售環境的功能和類別專業知識以及經驗。除此之外，我們還擁有非常強大且經驗豐富的長期任職的伯靈頓本土人才基礎。

Whenever you put together a new team like that, it can take a little bit of time to gel. But over the past 12 to 18 months, I've seen a real maturation in that group. I think our senior leaders are operating very effectively as a team.

每當你組成一個這樣的新團隊時，可能需要一些時間來凝聚。但在過去的 12 到 18 個月裡，我看到了這個團隊真正的成熟。我認為我們的高階領導作為一個團隊運作得非常有效。

That's good to hear. And then, Kristen, can you share some more details on the supply chain savings initiatives? You spoke to some of these in response to Lorraine's question.

很高興聽到這個消息。然後，克里斯汀，您能分享一些有關供應鏈節約計劃的更多細節嗎？您在回答洛林的問題時談到了其中一些。

We can see in the model you've achieved strong leverage on expenses throughout this year, but how do we think about the basis point opportunity related to supply chain expenses in '25 and beyond?

我們可以在模型中看到，今年您在支出方面實現了強大的槓桿作用，但我們如何看待 25 年及以後與供應鏈支出相關的基點機會？

We are really pleased that supply chain deleverage recapture is running ahead of schedule. As I just described in an earlier question, we estimate that supply chain productivity improvements, we target driving potentially 100 basis points of the 400 basis points of margin improvement we outlined in the long-range plan. Again, in Q3, supply chain leveraged 50 basis points as our efficiency initiatives helped drive cost savings in DCs.

我們非常高興供應鏈去槓桿化進程提前進行。正如我在先前的問題中所描述的，我們估計供應鏈生產力的提高，我們的目標是在長期計劃中概述的 400 個基點的利潤率改善中潛在地推動 100 個基點。同樣，在第三季度，供應鏈利用了 50 個基點，因為我們的效率措施有助於推動配送中心的成本節約。

We have a number of productivity initiatives we're working on in DC operations. We're redesigning how merchandise flows within the DC, automating select processes, ultimately reducing touches and time to process merchandise and saving labor dollars in DCs. And as I mentioned a few moments ago, looking ahead into Q4, it's important to keep in mind that we will be lapping the quarter last year when we first started to drive meaningful cost savings in our supply chain. In Q4 last year, we leveraged supply chain expense by 40 basis points, and this was a real turning point for us on the expense line a year ago. So we would expect to show more modest leverage on supply chain in Q4 of this year.

我們正在 DC 營運中實施多項生產力計劃。我們正在重新設計商品在配送中心內的流動方式，實現選擇流程的自動化，最終減少商品處理的接觸次數和時間，並節省配送中心的勞動成本。正如我剛才提到的，展望第四季度，重要的是要記住，我們將在去年第四季度開始，當時我們第一次開始在供應鏈中推動有意義的成本節約。去年第四季度，我們將供應鏈費用槓桿化了40個基點，這對我們一年前的費用線來說是一個真正的轉捩點。因此，我們預計今年第四季供應鏈的槓桿率將更加溫和。

We'll probably in '24, showing product sourcing leverage of around 50 basis points better than last year. So we're about halfway there to the 100-basis-point goal embedded in our five-year plan. And then longer term, beyond 2028, we do have an opportunity to drive incremental leverage as we modernize our supply chain with new larger and much more automated DCs that we expect to open to support our growth. As I mentioned, our Southeast DC and Savannah, Georgia is slated to open in 2026, and it's a great example of this. And with new DCs, we have an opportunity to design these distribution centers for off-price and with more automation.

我們可能會在 24 年顯示產品採購槓桿比去年提高約 50 個基點。因此，我們距離五年計畫中的 100 個基點目標已經完成了大約一半。從長遠來看，2028 年之後，我們確實有機會推動增量槓桿，因為我們希望透過開設更大、自動化程度更高的新配送中心來實現供應鏈現代化，以支持我們的成長。正如我所提到的，我們的東南特區和喬治亞州薩凡納預計於 2026 年開業，這是一個很好的例子。有了新的配送中心，我們就有機會以折扣價和更高的自動化等級設計這些配送中心。

Brooke Roach, Goldman Sachs.

布魯克·羅奇，高盛。

Michael, can you provide an update on the strategy to increase the mix of better brands within the Burlington assortment?

邁克爾，您能否提供有關增加伯靈頓品種中更好品牌組合的策略的最新資訊？

I think I'm going to reframe your question slightly. Rather than just focusing on better brands, I would say that for the last couple of years, we've been working to elevate our assortments and thereby deliver even better value to the customer. Now in businesses like say sportswear or footwear that means a higher mix of better or recognizable brands.

我想我要稍微重新思考一下你的問題。我想說的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在努力提升我們的產品種類，從而為客戶提供更好的價值，而不是只專注於更好的品牌。現在，在運動服或鞋類等行業，這意味著更好或知名品牌的更多組合。

But in other areas like home or juniors, it's more about the quality or the design or the fashion. And that together with price, those are all drivers of value. And the importance of each driver, it depends on the business and also depends on the customer, which is why our work very hard to make sure that we're offering great value, but within the context of a good, better, best assortment. Now as we've discussed before, this isn't a new strategy. When you boil it down, the strategy is and always has been to offer great value to shoppers.

但在家居或青少年等其他領域，更多的是品質、設計或時尚。與價格一起，這些都是價值的驅動因素。每個驅動程式的重要性取決於業務，也取決於客戶，這就是為什麼我們非常努力地工作，以確保我們提供巨大的價值，但在良好、更好、最好的品種範圍內。正如我們之前討論過的，這並不是一個新策略。歸根結底，我們的策略始終是為購物者提供巨大的價值。

Elevating our assortment in terms of brand mix, fashion, design and quality is more of an evolution rather than a revolution. There's no significant hit to merchant margin here. In fact, as Kristin described in the prepared remarks, in Q3, we achieved an increase in merchant margin driven by lower markdowns and higher markup. Together with our strong underlying sales trend, we see that as evidence that our elevation strategy is working.

在品牌組合、時尚、設計和品質方面提升我們的產品種類更多的是一種演變，而不是一場革命。這裡商家的利潤並沒有受到重大影響。事實上，正如克里斯汀在準備好的發言中所描述的那樣，在第三季度，我們在較低的降價和較高的加價推動下實現了商家利潤的增加。加上我們強勁的潛在銷售趨勢，我們認為這證明我們的提升策略正在發揮作用。

Great. And then just for Kristin, tariffs have been mentioned a few times on today's call. Can you speak in more detail on how you're thinking about tariffs? Should they be implemented and the potential impact on Burlington's business?

偉大的。對克里斯汀來說，今天的電話會議中多次提到了關稅。能更詳細地談談您對關稅的看法嗎？它們是否應該實施以及對伯靈頓業務的潛在影響？

Yes, it's a very good question. It's one that's pretty difficult to answer at this point. Michael talked about next year's uncertainties, including the unknowns on tariffs. But I can provide some tariff data and some history to put this in context. So our direct import exposure where we are directly paying the tariff to import goods into the US is relatively small and much lower than many retailers. In 2024, we expect to have directly imported about 8% of our merchandise. And of those direct imports, the majority is from China. So let's call it, about 7% of our merchandise has direct tariff exposure to China. So well over 90% of our buys are on merchandise where we are not directly paying the tariff.

是的，這是一個非常好的問題。目前這個問題很難回答。麥可談到了明年的不確定性，包括關稅方面的未知因素。但我可以提供一些關稅數據和一些歷史記錄來說明這一點。因此，我們直接支付關稅將商品進口到美國的直接進口風險相對較小，遠低於許多零售商。到 2024 年，我們預計約 8% 的商品將直接進口。在這些直接進口中，大部分來自中國。這麼說吧，我們約 7% 的商品對中國有直接關稅影響。因此，我們購買的 90% 以上都是不直接支付關稅的商品。

And as an off-price retailer with a flexible buying model, we do have the ability to negotiate the price we pay and to mitigate that impact. And most importantly, we will ensure we continue to provide value. We provide value to the customers and sustain a value gap, i.e., savings versus full-price retailers. And as we did in 2018 and the 2019 time frame, we will look for strategies to offset incremental tariffs. We'll work with vendor partners on the cost side as well as examining our sourcing and where we source from.

作為一家擁有靈活購買模式的折扣零售商，我們確實有能力協商我們支付的價格並減輕這種影響。最重要的是，我們將確保繼續提供價值。我們為客戶提供價值並維持價值差距，即與全價零售商相比的節省。正如我們在 2018 年和 2019 年期間所做的那樣，我們將尋找抵銷增量關稅的策略。我們將在成本方面與供應商合作夥伴合作，並檢查我們的採購和採購來源。

We managed as well during the last generation of tariffs, and we actually saw a merch margin was up in both fiscal '18 and '19. And finally, and most importantly, as Michael kind of described earlier, tariffs will likely lead or could lead to disruption, which is ultimately good for off-price. Manufacturers may build up inventory levels to get out in front of tariffs or production in various categories could move from 1 country to another. These sorts of disruptions do create buying opportunities for off-price. So ultimately, we acknowledge there's tremendous uncertainty around tariffs, but our off-price model is flexible in terms of what we buy and from where.

我們在上一代關稅期間也做到了這一點，實際上我們看到 18 財年和 19 財年的商品利潤率都有所上升。最後，也是最重要的，正如邁克爾之前所描述的那樣，關稅可能會導致或可能導致混亂，這最終有利於折扣。製造商可能會提高庫存水準以應對關稅，或者不同類別的生產可能從一個國家轉移到另一個國家。這些類型的干擾確實創造了低價購買的機會。因此，最終，我們承認關稅存在巨大的不確定性，但我們的折扣模式在購買內容和購買地點方面是靈活的。

And our direct import penetration is low. So ultimately, we see that as a positive as we face this potential issue.

而且我們的直接進口滲透率很低。因此，最終，當我們面臨這個潛在問題時，我們認為這是正面的。

Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley.

亞歷克斯‧斯特拉頓，摩根士丹利。

Maybe for Michael. Taking a step back, what Burlington 2.0 initiatives are you most excited about right now? And how will those show up in Burlington's financial profile over time?

也許是為了麥可。退一步來說，伯靈頓 2.0 的哪些舉措目前最令您興奮？隨著時間的推移，這些將如何體現在伯靈頓的財務狀況中？

Well, Alex, thank you for the question. Actually, I really like this question. I mean let me talk a little bit about it. Well, first of all, there are many important initiatives going on across the company in merchandising, stores, supply chain, real estate and IT. But to answer your question, maybe I should just highlight two specific initiatives that we've recently rolled out and that I expect will have a big impact over time.

好吧，亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。其實我真的很喜歡這個問題。我的意思是讓我談談它。嗯，首先，整個公司在銷售、商店、供應鏈、房地產和 IT 方面正在進行許多重要的舉措。但為了回答你的問題，也許我應該強調我們最近推出的兩項具體舉措，我預計隨著時間的推移，這兩項舉措將產生巨大影響。

Firstly, in 2023, we completely refreshed and updated the suite of reports that our merchants use to analyze sales trends. But then in the first half of this year, so quite recently, we followed that up and rolled out a new in-season trending process. Now that allows merchants and planners to more frequently and rapidly react to what they're seeing in those sales reports. They can reforecast sales and they can move open to buy dollars into businesses that are trending, and they can pull money out of areas that are not trending. Now to some degree, of course, they've always been able to do that to some degree.

首先，在 2023 年，我們徹底刷新並更新了商家用來分析銷售趨勢的一套報告。但在今年上半年，也就是最近，我們跟進並推出了新的當季趨勢流程。現在，商家和規劃者可以更頻繁、更快速地對他們在銷售報告中看到的內容做出反應。他們可以重新預測銷售情況，可以向有趨勢的企業買入美元，也可以從沒有趨勢的領域撤資。當然，現在在某種程度上，他們總是能夠在某種程度上做到這一點。

But the new reports are more accurate and up to date and they provide our merchants with better visibility to support the factory forecasting process. And add to that, the new process enables greater frequency and speed in making those changes. So I think those improvements are already helping us to more rapidly and effectively chase or pull back based on the trend. Secondly, in the summer, we turned on new store level sales and allocation algorithms to more effectively respond to trends of the individual store class level and thereby drive greater customization of the assortment by store. Now those localization algorithms are based on machine learning.

但新報告更加準確和最新，為我們的商家提供了更好的可見性，以支援工廠預測流程。除此之外，新流程可以提高進行這些變更的頻率和速度。所以我認為這些改進已經幫助我們更快、更有效地根據趨勢進行追趕或撤退。其次，在夏季，我們啟用了新的商店層級銷售和分配演算法，以更有效地回應各個商店類別層級的趨勢，從而推動商店分類的更大程度的客製化。現在這些定位演算法都是基於機器學習的。

And over time, they're going to optimize the allocation of receipts based on store class level selling. That will take some time for that effect to really build, but it should drive stronger sales, faster turns and lower markdowns. I think the two initiatives I've just described to provide a good illustration of what we're trying to do with Burlington 2.0. We know that when it comes to processes, systems, tools and execution, we are behind our off-price peers. But that's just another way of saying we have huge opportunity and upside.

隨著時間的推移，他們將根據商店層級的銷售來優化收據分配。這種效果需要一些時間才能真正形成，但它應該會推動更強勁的銷售、更快的周轉和更低的降價。我認為我剛才描述的兩項舉措很好地說明了我們正在嘗試使用伯靈頓 2.0 做的事情。我們知道，在流程、系統、工具和執行方面，我們落後於低價同行。但這只是我們擁有巨大機會和優勢的另一種方式。

And we're very focused on that upside and on narrowing that gap versus our peers. The two initiatives that I've described, I think, are good examples of how we're going to do that.

我們非常關注這項優勢，並致力於縮小與同行的差距。我認為，我所描述的兩項舉措是我們將如何做到這一點的好例子。

That's really exciting. Maybe one more near-term question for Kristin. Can you just provide some color on comp trends in the quarter as it relates to regular price versus clearance selling?

這真的很令人興奮。也許克里斯汀還有一個近期問題。您能否提供一些有關本季比較趨勢的信息，因為它與正常價格與清倉銷售有關？

Alex, thanks for the question. I acknowledge that this is a benefit to merch margin in Q3, but let me provide just a little more detail. Our regular price selling continues to be very strong. In the third quarter, regular priced sales once again outpaced our trend. Regular price selling did a 3 comp increase in Q3, 200 basis points above our overall trend.

亞歷克斯，謝謝你的提問。我承認這對第三季的商品利潤有好處，但讓我提供更多細節。我們的正常價格銷售仍然非常強勁。第三季度，正常價格銷售再次超過了我們的趨勢。第三季常規價格銷售成長了 3 個基點，比我們的整體趨勢高出 200 個基點。

We continue to benefit from our approach of chasing the business operating with leaner inventories, driving faster turns and thereby incurring lower markdowns, which then translates to higher merchandise margin. And we really do see this as further validation on our merch 2.0 initiative, our growth and maturation of our merchandising team and strong inventory control. And I believe I mentioned this in an earlier question, but it's worth reiterating. In regards to Q4, clearance levels are projected to be more similar to last year's levels, which will provide less merch margin benefit in Q4 than we've seen year to date.

我們繼續受益於我們追求以更精簡庫存運營的業務、推動更快的周轉，從而產生更低的降價，從而轉化為更高的商品利潤的方法。我們確實認為這是對我們的商品 2.0 計劃、我們的銷售團隊的成長和成熟以及強大的庫存控制的進一步驗證。我相信我在之前的問題中提到過這一點，但值得重申。就第四季度而言，清倉水平預計將與去年的水平更加相似，這將導致第四季度的商品利潤率收益低於我們今年迄今為止所看到的水平。

Operator, I think we're at time. You can turn the call back to Michael.

接線員，我想我們到時間了。您可以將電話轉回給邁克爾。

We are now done with the Q&A session. I'd now like to hand back over to Michael O'Sullivan for final remarks.

我們現在已經完成了問答環節。現在我想請麥可·奧沙利文發表最後的演講。

Well, let me close the call by thanking everyone for your interest in Burlington Stores. We look forward to talking to you again in March to discuss our fourth-quarter 2024 fiscal results. I'd like to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, and thank you for your time today.

好吧，讓我結束這通通話，感謝大家對伯靈頓商店的興趣。我們期待在 3 月再次與您交談，討論我們的 2024 年第四季財務表現。我謹祝大家感恩節快樂，感謝大家今天抽出時間。

Thank you for attending today's call. You may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。祝你有美好的一天。