Burford Capital Ltd (BUR) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Bella, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Burford Capital third quarter 2025 financial results conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Josh Wood, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

您好，感謝您的耐心等待。我叫貝拉，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線生。在此，我謹代表博福德資本公司歡迎各位參加2025年第三季財務業績電話會議。（操作員指示）現在我將會議交給投資人關係主管喬許‧伍德。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Bella, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you taking time to join us to discuss Burford's third quarter results. On the call, we have our Chief Executive Officer, Chris Bogart; our Chief Investment Officer, Jon Molot; and our Chief Financial Officer, Jordan Licht.

謝謝你，貝拉，大家早安。感謝您抽出時間與我們一起討論伯福德第三季的業績。參加電話會議的有：執行長克里斯·博加特；投資長喬恩·莫洛特；以及財務長喬丹·利希特。

Earlier this morning, we posted a detailed earnings presentation, which we'll refer to during the call and also filed our Form 10-Q, both of which you can find on our Investor Relations website.

今天早些時候，我們發布了一份詳細的收益報告，我們將在電話會議上提及該報告，並且我們還提交了 10-Q 表格，您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到這兩份文件。

Before we get started, just a reminder that today's call may contain forward-looking statements that involve certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed during the call. For more information regarding these risk factors, please refer to our earnings materials relating to this call posted on our website and our filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，提醒一下，今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及某些風險、不確定性和其他因素，這些因素可能導致實際結果與電話會議中討論的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險因素的更多信息，請參閱我們網站上發布的與本次電話會議相關的收益材料以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

We'll also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures during the call. Please refer to today's earnings materials in our filings with the SEC for additional information, including reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures.

我們也會在電話會議中提及一些非GAAP財務指標。有關更多信息，請參閱我們今天向美國證券交易委員會提交的盈利資料，包括這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比的GAAP指標的調節表。

With that, I will turn the call over to Chris.

接下來，我將把電話交給克里斯。

Thanks very much, Josh, and hello everybody. Thank you again for joining us today. We're going to do this call today a little differently than usual. Before we turn to Jordan and the usual financial review, I would like to cover a few different topics with you.

非常感謝Josh，大家好。再次感謝您今天蒞臨。今天我們進行這次電話會議的方式會和往常略有不同。在我們討論約旦和通常的財務回顧之前，我想和大家談談幾個不同的主題。

Let's start with YPF, given the market reaction to last week's oral argument. The YPF case was adjudicated in the Southern District of New York. That's the federal trial court in Manhattan. It is one of the highest quality courts in the United States. Court-wide, its reversal rate on appeal is 6.28% over the last 10 years.

讓我們先從 YPF 開始，看看市場對上週口頭辯論的反應。YPF 案件由紐約南區法院審理。那是位於曼哈頓的聯邦地方法院。它是美國品質最高的法院之一。過去 10 年，該法院的上訴推翻率平均為 6.28%。

The YPF case was decided by Judge Preska, the Former Chief Judge of the Southern District. Her individual reversal rate is 4.63% over the same period. So the statistical reality is that a judgment from this court, and especially from Judge Preska is likely to be affirmed on appeal.

YPF 案件由前南部地區首席法官普雷斯卡法官審理。同期她的個人逆轉率為 4.63%。因此，從統計學角度來看，本法院的判決，尤其是普雷斯卡法官的判決，很可能在上訴中得到維持。

Because of some of the questions and comments from the panel at oral argument, the market seems to have freaked out a little bit about the risk of the case being dismissed on the legal doctrine known as forum non-conveniens, literally an inconvenient forum.

由於陪審團在口頭辯論中提出的一些問題和評論，市場似乎對案件可能因「不方便法院」這一法律原則而被駁回的風險感到有些恐慌。

Forum non, as it's called, is a discretionary doctrine. It allows the court only once it has determined that it has jurisdiction, which is settled law already here. That allows the court to send the case to another more convenient court for trial. This occurs most often when there is some logistical issue going on, for example, that witnesses can't travel to the US courts for trial.

所謂“非法院管轄原則”，是一種自由裁量原則。只有在法院確定其具有管轄權之後，才允許這樣做，而這在本地已是既定法律。這樣一來，法院就可以將案件移送至另一個更方便的法院進行審理。這種情況最常發生在出現一些後勤問題的時候，例如，證人無法前往美國法院接受審判。

A sort of hokey example of forum non is for Jordan and me to go to a conference in Arizona and get into a fight, and for Jordan to punch me in the nose, and for me to sue him for damages. That case could be brought in Arizona because that's where the punch happened.

一個不太恰當的「論壇錯誤」例子是，我和喬丹去亞利桑那州參加一個會議，然後發生爭執，喬丹打了我的鼻子，然後我起訴他要求賠償。這起案件可以在亞利桑那州提起訴訟，因為打人事件就發生在那裡。

But given that Jordan and I both live in New York and never otherwise go to Arizona, Jordan could try to argue that it would be more convenient for the case to be heard in New York and not in Arizona. That's really the essence of what forum non is all about.

但鑑於我和喬丹都住在紐約，而且平常也不去亞利桑那州，喬丹可能會辯稱，在紐約審理此案比在亞利桑那州審理更方便。這正是論壇非官方的精髓。

And although anything can happen in litigation, it would be extraordinary for the appellate court to dismiss the YPF case on this ground, on form ground -- on forum non grounds now for several reasons. First of all, the trial judge has discretion to decide forum non motions. And Judge Preska twice exercised her discretion to deny two separate forum non motions over time.

雖然訴訟中什麼都有可能發生，但上訴法院以形式理由駁回 YPF 案件，或以管轄權理由駁回 YPF 案件，是極為罕見的，原因有很多。首先，審判法官有權決定是否對管轄權提出動議。普雷斯卡法官曾兩次行使自由裁量權，駁回了兩項不同的管轄權動議。

To reverse her decision, the appellate court would not only have to disagree with her rulings, but also conclude that she abused her discretion in deciding the matter. That is a very high standard and it is very hard to satisfy.

要推翻她的決定，上訴法院不僅要不同意她的裁決，還要認定她在決定此事時濫用了自由裁量權。這是一個非常高的標準，很難達到。

Second, there is a substantial body of law out there that says that further along a case goes, the less viable a forum non dismissal is. It's one thing to send the Jordan, Chris case to New York as soon as it's filed. It is quite another to do so after 10 years of litigation, a trial, and a judgment.

其次，有大量的法律規定，隨著案件的深入，法院不駁回訴訟的可行性就越低。喬丹和克里斯的案件一立案就立刻移送紐約審理，這是一回事。但經過 10 年的訴訟、審判和判決後再這樣做，就完全是另一回事了。

Indeed, it would be extraordinary to dismiss a case after trial and judgment. As the plaintiff's lawyer, Paul Clement, who is the Former Solicitor General of the United States, said during the oral argument, the only case example Argentina could find was 38 years old and from another circuit.

確實，在審判和判決之後撤銷案件是極為罕見的。正如原告律師、美國前副檢察長保羅·克萊門特在口頭辯論中所說，阿根廷能找到的唯一案例是 38 年前的，而且來自另一個巡迴法院。

And its facts are nothing like the facts here with a New York Stock Exchange issuer being sued in New York by US shareholders. In fact, the old case was about a Peruvian sailor who died on a Peruvian ship that just happens to have been docked in Texas at the time. Every single other element of the case was Peruvian, and that's the best case Argentina could find 38 years old.

而這起案件的事實與此案截然不同，此案中一家紐約證券交易所的發行人被美國股東在紐約起訴。事實上，這起舊案涉及一名秘魯水手，他死於一艘秘魯船上，而這艘船當時恰好停靠在德克薩斯州。案件的其他要素都來自秘魯，而這已經是阿根廷 38 年前能找到的最好的案件了。

Third, Argentina would also have to show substantial prejudice from having to litigate in New York. For example, by not being able to have witnesses show up to testify, which was a problem in the Peruvian case. That is simply not an issue here. Every witness showed up for trial, and Argentina suffered no prejudice at all from litigating in New York, which it has been doing for decades in numerous litigation matters.

第三，阿根廷也必須證明在紐約進行訴訟會對其造成實質損害。例如，由於無法讓證人出庭作證，這在秘魯的案件中就是一個問題。這裡根本不是問題。所有證人都出庭作證，阿根廷在紐約進行訴訟並未受到任何損害，而阿根廷幾十年來一直在紐約處理各種訴訟案件。

In short, although we don't litigate cases in the press, and while there is always litigation risk and forum non was not the only issue on appeal, it would be exceptional for this case to be dismissed out of the US courts at this juncture and sent to Argentina on forum non grounds. And even then, by the way, it wouldn't be the end of this case. The market seems to us to have completely overreacted to the appellate argument.

簡而言之，雖然我們不會在媒體上提起訴訟，而且訴訟風險始終存在，並且「無管轄權」也不是上訴的唯一問題，但在這個階段，如果美國法院以「無管轄權」為由駁回此案並將其移送至阿根廷，那將是極其罕見的。順便說一句，即便如此，這起案件也還沒結束。我們認為，市場對上訴論點的反應完全過激了。

As we said in our release before the argument, trying to read the tea leaves in an oral argument is a perilous course. Of course, it would be lovely if all the judges came in and said loudly and in unison, of course you win. But that is just not how the process works.

正如我們在辯論前的聲明中所說，試圖在口頭辯論中解讀局勢是危險的。當然，如果所有評委都進來，齊聲大聲說“你當然贏了”，那就太好了。但實際情況並非如此。

Judges ask probing questions of both sides as part of the Socratic process. So now we wait for the court's decision, that will take months, but we remain bullish on this case. The YPF case is only part of our business and it's not the largest part.

法官們會依照蘇格拉底式辯論法，向雙方提出深入的問題。所以現在我們等待法院的判決，這需要幾個月的時間，但我們仍然看好這個案子。YPF 案只是我們業務的一部分，而且不是最大的一部分。

And we are excited about the broader business and its growth and performance potential. We're continuing to grow organically and inorganically, and we're confident in our 2030 plans as laid out in our April Investor Day.

我們對整個業務及其成長和業績潛力感到興奮。我們正持續透過內生式和非內生式成長來實現發展，並且我們對在四月投資者日上提出的 2030 年計劃充滿信心。

Looking at slide 9, we are having a great year for the business. Definitive commitments up more than 50%. The overall portfolio is up 15% already year-to-date. That's 20% annualized. That is well above the level to achieve our goal of doubling the business by 2030. I don't care much for quarterly results, but looking just at the third quarter, deployments were up 61%.

從第 9 張投影片可以看出，我們公司今年的業務發展非常順利。最終承諾增加超過 50%。今年以來，整體投資組合已上漲 15%。年化報酬率為20%。這遠高於我們實現 2030 年業務翻番目標所需的水平。我不太關心季度業績，但僅就第三季而言，部署量成長了 61%。

And this slide that we're looking at just underlines the new business point. We have done a lot more business this year in dollars and in a number of cases than last year. And as we've discussed before, the thing that makes the difference quarter by quarter is the presence of big cases, and we've already had more than our fair share of those this year.

我們現在看到的這張投影片恰恰強調了這個新的商業觀點。今年，無論從美元金額還是從許多方面來看，我們的業務量都比去年大得多。正如我們之前討論過的，每個季度產生差異的關鍵在於是否存在重大案件，而今年我們已經遇到了遠超應有數量的重大案件。

As Jordan will show you later, a lot of that new business is also in the nicely high returning zone on a modeled basis. In other words, we have ceded the ground for substantial realizations in the years to come. And don't forget the overall potential of the portfolio. We showed you modeling at investor day estimating $4.5 billion of potential realizations from the portfolio as it was then, and we keep on growing it.

正如喬丹稍後會向你展示的那樣，許多新業務在模型預測下也處於回報率很高的領域。換句話說，我們已經為未來幾年取得實質成就讓了基礎。別忘了投資組合的整體潛力。我們在投資者日上向您展示了模型，該模型估計當時的投資組合可實現 45 億美元的潛在收益，而且我們還在不斷擴大投資組合。

Let's shift from new business to actual realizations and move to slide 10. We are running ahead of last year in the volume of realizations, and we're making new realization records on a rolling average basis. That's consistent with how we are feeling about the portfolio, that things are moving.

讓我們從新業務轉向實際成果，並轉到第 10 張投影片。我們在實現量方面已經超過了去年同期水平，並且按滾動平均值計算，我們正在創造新的實現記錄。這與我們對投資組合的看法一致，即情況正在好轉。

They never move as fast as we would like, and Jon is going to address this a little bit more in a few minutes, but they are moving, and you can't look at this on a short-term basis. This is always a long game. Good results.

他們的進度總是不如我們預期，Jon 稍後會再詳細談談這個問題，但他們的確在前進，你不能只從短期角度來看待這個問題。這始終是一場持久戰。結果良好。

In fact, the way the average life of both the concluded book and the ongoing portfolio are pretty stable, around 2.5 years for the former and a bit over 3 years for the latter. Does every litigation drive us nuts? Sure. And especially because delays can cause accounting noise, as occurred this period when some duration extensions negatively affected the unrealized line.

事實上，已完成的書籍和正在進行的投資組合的平均壽命都相當穩定，前者約為 2.5 年，後者略超過 3 年。每場訴訟都會讓我們抓狂嗎？當然。尤其是因為延誤可能會造成會計上的干擾，就像本期發生的某些工期延長對未實現的業績線產生了負面影響一樣。

No court ever calls and says, hey, good news, we've moved your trial date up by six months. So while delay and a lack of predictability is something that is a constant frustration to anyone involved in litigation, it is simply how the system operates. And frankly, we are good at managing through that process and structuring deals around the inevitability of delay.

沒有哪個法院會打電話來說：“嘿，好消息，我們把你的審判日期提前六個月了。”因此，雖然延誤和缺乏可預測性對於任何參與訴訟的人來說都是不斷令人沮喪的事情，但這只是該系統的運作方式。坦白說，我們很擅長應對這個過程，並圍繞不可避免的延誤來建立交易。

Our focus really has to be in running this business on whether bad things are happening, like a spike in losses, which simply isn't happening, and not whether the system is working as it has for the entire 35 years I've been involved in what are always delayed litigation matters where frankly, no deadline ever actually holds.

經營這家企業，我們真正應該關注的是是否發生了糟糕的事情，比如損失激增（這種情況根本沒有發生），而不是關注這個系統是否像我過去 35 年參與的那些總是拖延的訴訟案件中那樣運作，坦白說，根本沒有哪個截止日期是真正遵守的。

And notwithstanding delays, notwithstanding uncertainty, our IRRs are also remaining steady at 26%, and that's now on $3.6 billion of realization. So with that and loss rates steady, we're feeling very good about the portfolio.

儘管存在延誤和不確定性，但我們的內部報酬率仍穩定在 26%，目前已實現 36 億美元的收益。因此，有鑑於此以及穩定的虧損率，我們對投資組合感到非常滿意。

Let me add just a bit of color to those bare numbers as a cross check. As we showed you at our Investor Day, the business relies on big cases for a material portion of its growth and performance. Whether we do a new big deal in any period will affect our new business numbers, and whether a big case concludes or has forward progress will affect our realized and unrealized gains.

為了進行交叉驗證，我再給這些簡單的數字增加一些色彩。正如我們在投資者日上向您展示的那樣，該業務的成長和業績很大程度上依賴於大宗交易。我們在任何時期是否達成新的大交易都會影響我們的新業務數據，而重大案件是否結案或取得進展也會影響我們的已實現和未實現收益。

As we've said since the beginning of time, this doesn't happen smoothly, and as you can see, our realized gang numbers are down, suggesting that we haven't had a big case realization yet this year, although we have actually had more case realizations in total this year than last year, just not as big -- just not as many big chunky ones.

正如我們一直以來所說的，事情不會一帆風順，而且正如你所看到的，我們實際抓獲的團夥數量有所下降，這表明我們今年還沒有抓獲任何重大案件，儘管我們今年實際抓獲的案件總數比去年多，只是沒有那麼大的案件——只是沒有那麼多案子。

However, we have lots of good forward progress. As just one example, we've had four large case wins so far this year, each of which, if upheld at their current levels, would generate more than $100 million in proceeds for us. Those cases aren't over, and as a result, their value is nowhere close to being reflected in our counting numbers, but they offer a window into the potential performance power of the portfolio.

然而，我們取得了許多良好的進展。僅舉一例，今年我們已經贏得了四起重大案件，如果每起案件的判決都維持在目前的水平，將為我們帶來超過 1 億美元的收益。這些案件尚未結束，因此，它們的價值遠未反映在我們的統計數字中，但它們為了解投資組合的潛在表現力提供了一個窗口。

And at the same time, we have not had any case losses of anything approaching that size because of the continuing positive asymmetry in the business. Another important point about the business reflected in slide 11 is the very significant spread between our book value and our expected value.

同時，由於業務持續保持積極的不對稱性，我們還沒有出現任何接近如此規模的案件損失。投影片 11 反映出的業務的另一個重要面向是，我們的帳面價值和預期價值之間存在著非常大的差距。

That disconnect exists because of the nature of our asset class. Value occurs at the end of the case because that is when the binary nature of litigation has ended in either a trial conclusion or a settlement. Our history demonstrates that we know how to identify that value and to do so much earlier in the process than the accounting will actually drive.

這種脫節現象的出現是因為我們資產類別的本質所致。案件的價值體現在案件的最後階段，因為那時訴訟的二元性質已經結束，要麼是審判結果，要麼是和解。我們的歷史表明，我們知道如何識別這種價值，而且我們能在流程早期就做到這一點，遠早於會計實際驅動的階段。

That being said, we can't just create income or GAAP value in a case by merely investing. We need the case to run its course. And that leaves is a disconnect between the likely ultimate value of our assets versus the accounting value, as you can see with this graphical illustration of the point. If our track record holds true, there is a significant amount of embedded value in our assets yet to come.

也就是說，我們不能只透過投資就創造收入或GAAP價值。我們需要讓案件依程序走完。這就造成了我們資產的最終價值與會計價值之間的脫節，正如你從這張圖表中看到的那樣。如果我們的過往績效不變，那麼我們未來的資產中還蘊含著巨大的價值。

So in short, Jon and I are passionate about the business and the portfolio. Investors can take confidence in our strong alignment of interests as large shareholders and committed executives. Our personal financial performance is directly tied to the success of the portfolio and to the performance of the stock.

簡而言之，我和喬恩都對這項業務和投資組合充滿熱情。身為大股東和盡職的主管，我們的利益高度一致，投資者可以對此充滿信心。我們的個人財務表現與投資組合的成功和股票的表現直接相關。

We recognize the needing to take the long view and put up with volatility like the volatility you've seen in these quarterly numbers isn't the perfect fit for quarterly earnings obsessed public markets, but that is just the way this business works and that is the price of high uncorrelated returns.

我們認識到需要從長遠角度看待問題，並承受像您在這些季度數據中看到的這種波動，這並不完全符合痴迷於季度盈利的公開市場，但這正是這個行業的運作方式，也是高非相關性回報的代價。

Turning more directly to the market, shareholders have, I think, every right to be unhappy with our share price performance, just as we are. As we all know, markets can become obsessed with elements of a company, and they can attract an undue level of attention, often masking more fundamental valuation precepts. That seems to be what has happened with respect to the YPF case.

更直接來說，就市場而言，我認為股東們完全有理由對我們的股價表現感到不滿，就像我們一樣。我們都知道，市場可能會對公司的某些方面過於關注，這些方面可能會引起過度的關注，從而掩蓋更基本的估值原則。YPF 案件似乎就是這種情況。

When a company's share price goes down, especially when it declines in what seems to be a fashion unrelated to its fundamental value, shareholders tend to respond by wanting management to buy stock or for the company to do a share buyback.

當一家公司的股價下跌時，尤其是當股價下跌的方式似乎與其基本價值無關時，股東往往會希望管理階層購買股票或公司進行股票回購。

Here, management has indeed been buying the stock because we think it's a good value. In fact, Jon and I bought more than 1.3 million shares of Burford stock in just the last year. But we don't think it's prudent at this moment, much as we think Burford's shares are cheap, to use corporate funds to buy back stock.

管理層確實一直在買入這隻股票，因為我們認為它很有價值。事實上，我和喬恩光是去年就買了超過 130 萬股 Burford 股票。但我們認為，儘管我們認為 Burford 的股票很便宜，但目前使用公司資金回購股票並不明智。

This is something we've talked a lot about with the Board, with shareholders, and with our advisers. And here's our reasoning and slide 12 tries to help make this point. We are continuing to grow this business. In fact, we are sticking to our prediction of being able to double it by the end of 2030 as we laid out in Investor Day.

我們已經和董事會、股東以及顧問就此進行了許多討論。這就是我們的理由，第 12 張投影片試圖闡明這一點。我們正在持續發展這項業務。事實上，我們仍然堅持我們在投資者日上提出的預測，即到 2030 年底能夠將其翻倍。

And given that we don't reliably have incoming cash flow from realizations at any particular point in time to meet our growth capital needs, we fund the gap with debt. Because the asset cash flow isn't predictable, we don't want to take on too much leverage. But we think the current level of long dated maturities is fine, and we have confidence in the portfolio performing over time to meet our debt service needs.

鑑於我們無法在任何特定時間點可靠地獲得來自資產變現的現金流來滿足我們的成長資本需求，我們透過舉債來彌補資金缺口。由於資產現金流不可預測，我們不想承擔過多的槓桿。但我們認為目前的長期到期債券比例是合適的，我們有信心該投資組合能夠隨著時間的推移滿足我們的償債需求。

However, diverting cash to a buyback changes that equation because we're now essentially funding the buyback with debt, but we're removing the cash and it's earning power permanently from the business. This isn't just about accretion.

然而，將現金用於股票回購改變了這種局面，因為我們現在實際上是用債務來為股票回購提供資金，但我們卻永久地從企業中移除了現金及其盈利能力。這不只是吸積的問題。

So for example, given our returns and the average life of our assets, we would expect $200 million today, as this slide shows you, to generate about $800 million of cash by the time we need to repay the underlying [$33 million] debt. That's a comfortable position.

例如，考慮到我們的收益和資產的平均壽命，正如這張投影片所示，我們預計今天投入的 2 億美元，到我們需要償還基礎債務（3,300 萬美元）時，將產生約 8 億美元的現金。這是一個很舒服的姿勢。

But if we divert the $200 million to a buyback, we will have to find all that repayment capacity elsewhere, and at some point, that becomes less comfortable. I'm not saying that we couldn't do that. Our leverage is low enough that we probably could, but it doesn't seem very prudent, and it would certainly add risk to the business.

但如果我們把 2 億美元用於股票回購，我們就必須在其他地方找到所有的償還能力，而到了某個時候，這會變得不太容易。我並不是說我們不能那樣做。我們的槓桿率很低，或許可以這麼做，但這似乎不太明智，而且肯定會為公司增加風險。

And when investors sit back and think about that dynamic, they tend to agree in our conversations with them. To be clear, we're not a closed book on this point, coming back to our shared frustration with the stock price, and we will keep on discussing it ourselves and continue to welcome shareholder feedback.

當投資人冷靜下來思考這種動態時，他們往往會同意我們與他們的對話。需要澄清的是，我們對此並非保持沉默，我們同樣對股價感到失望，我們將繼續內部討論此事，並繼續歡迎股東的回饋意見。

I think it's clear to the market what we believe about the business and the share price, and so I don't think of a signaling release where we do a little buyback does a whole lot for us, and a big buyback just seems imprudent when we talk through the issues. But as I said, it's something that we will continue to talk to people about and continue to listen to shareholder feedback on.

我認為市場很清楚我們對公司業務和股價的看法，因此我不認為發布小規模股票回購的信號性公告對我們有多大幫助，而且當我們討論過相關問題後，大規模股票回購似乎也顯得不夠謹慎。但正如我所說，我們會繼續與大家討論這個問題，並繼續聽取股東的回饋意見。

And then just before I turn you over to Jordan, I'd just highlight slide 13. First of all, to highlight the appointment today of Bank of America as a corporate broker for us, representing yet another step forward in both the US and the UK markets and just more evidence of our maturity and market leadership.

然後，在我把鏡頭交給 Jordan 之前，我只想重點介紹第 13 張投影片。首先，要重點介紹我們今天任命美國銀行為我們的企業經紀商，這代表著我們在美國和英國市場又向前邁進了一步，也進一步證明了我們的成熟度和市場領導地位。

I'm not going to spend time on this, the rest of this slide orally, but it's worth a look for those of you based in London, where the LC frankly never ceases to lose its capacity to amaze me. And with that, I'll turn you over to Jordan and Jon and look forward to taking your questions later on.

我不會花時間口頭講解這張投影片的其餘部分，但對於身在倫敦的各位來說，值得一看，因為坦白說，倫敦會議總能讓我感到驚訝。那麼，接下來我將把麥克風交給 Jordan 和 Jon，期待稍後再回答大家的問題。

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I'm going to take us through the two segments, principal finance, asset management. Jon will spend some time in the middle on the portfolio. Three things that I want to make sure to hit upon a little bit deeper and coincides directly with some of Chris's comments, which is to talk about capital provision income, discuss realizations and new business.

謝謝你，克里斯，大家早安。我將帶大家了解這兩個部分：本金融資和資產管理。喬恩會在中間花一些時間研究一下投資組合。我想更深入地探討三件事，這與克里斯的一些評論直接相關，那就是談談資本供給收入、討論實現和新業務。

When you look in at overall at the financial results and you see that year-to-date, we're down in capital provision income revenue, a lot of that was driven by extension of fair model durations, and I'll unpack that even further when we get into the principal finance segment and the bridge.

從整體財務表現來看，今年迄今為止，我們的資本撥備收入有所下降，這主要是由於公允模型期限的延長所致，當我們深入探討本金融資部分和過渡性融資時，我會對此進行更詳細的分析。

But before we get to that, I'd like to spend a little bit of time just commenting on the portfolio. Right now, ex-YPF -- I'm on page 19, ex-YPF for deployed cost of just under $1.7 billion. Chris has already highlighted and it reflects in some earlier slides the amount of fair value, unrealized gains associated with that, which is around 32%. So as mentioned, there's a significant upside to come in terms of future gains to the extent we hit our historical ROICs.

但在那之前，我想先花一點時間對投資組合做一些評論。目前，前 YPF——我翻到第 19 頁，前 YPF 的部署成本略低於 17 億美元。克里斯已經強調過，並且在之前的一些幻燈片中也有所體現，那就是與此相關的公允價值和未實現收益的數額，約為 32%。如同前面所提到的，如果我們能夠達到歷史投資報酬率，那麼未來的收益將會有很大的成長空間。

I really do love the right side of the page, and it correlates with not just the historical portfolio but the way in which the business is continuing to grow. You look at all the different colors and you can see the diversity. On the top, it's the diversity in geography. And on the bottom, the diversity in the actual portfolio, whether it's arbitration, antitrust, contract cages -- excuse me, contract cases or patents, we really have a diversified portfolio, a diversified team around the globe.

我非常喜歡頁面的右側，它不僅與歷史投資組合相關，而且與企業持續成長的方式相關。你看看這些不同的顏色，就能感受到它們的多樣性。首先，是地理環境的多樣性。從根本上來說，實際投資組合的多樣性體現在仲裁、反壟斷、合約籠——抱歉，是合約案件或專利方面，我們確實擁有多元化的投資組合，以及一支遍布全球的多元化團隊。

Moving to page 20, we can go through the capital provision income and the fair value bridge. I'm going to focus specifically on the bottom left hand side to illustrate some of the numbers, and this shows how we moved from $3.8 billion to $3.9 billion in total fair value.

翻到第 20 頁，我們可以查看資本準備金收入和公允價值轉換。我將重點放在左下角，以說明一些數字，這顯示了我們的總公允價值如何從 38 億美元增加到 39 億美元。

The first two pieces to discuss that somewhat offset each other when you look at the quarter or the year is deployments and realizations. Deployments putting the money out and we'll discuss that more in a future slide and then realizations with the cash coming in.

首先要討論的是部署和實現這兩個方面，它們在季度或年度層面上會相互抵消。部署會投入資金，我們將在以後的幻燈片中詳細討論這一點，然後是資金流入帶來的實現。

The middle is how we earn the income in terms of fair value as well as the real life gains, and we break it apart into three components. First is the duration impact. Now this duration impact that's what we're outlining here as the passage of time is truly just the passage of time.

中間部分是我們如何根據公允價值和實際收益來獲得收入，我們將其分為三個部分。首先是持續時間的影響。現在，我們所要闡述的持續時間的影響，就是時間的流逝，它確實只是時間的流逝。

So this is if you take all of the fair value models and you move forward a quarter towards the ultimate completion date. You then have change in discount rate. We've discussed that before. When rates go up, the value comes down slightly and vice versa. It works the same way as bond mass when you're discounting an NPV.

所以，如果你採用所有公允價值模型，並向前推移一個季度，直到最終完工日期，就會得到這樣的結果。這樣一來，貼現率就會改變。我們之前討論過這個問題。利率上升時，價值會稍微下降，反之亦然。在對淨現值進行折現時，其工作原理與債券品質相同。

And then you have the collection of milestones and other model impacts. And so this is the recognition of an objective event with a milestone or in the case of this quarter, if we've identified some cases in which we've extended the fair value model estimated duration. And when you push that out, it will then correspondingly have a reduction when you think of an NPV, will have a reduction in value.

然後還有里程碑和其他模型影響的集合。因此，這是對具有里程碑意義的客觀事件的確認，或者就本季而言，如果我們已經確定了一些需要延長公允價值模型估計持續時間的情況。當你把這個因素考慮進去時，它的淨現值（NPV）就會隨之減少，價值也會減少。

It's important to take a pause there and say by moving duration that doesn't necessarily at all change our view of the case or the outcome. It also doesn't necessarily impact what we're going to receive. In some cases, well, in many instances and in most of our assets, we have backend adjustments in which multiples can rise the longer the capital is outstanding.

需要在此稍作停頓，並說明調整持續時間並不一定會改變我們對案件或結果的看法。這也不一定會影響我們將要收到什麼。在某些情況下，或在許多情況下，以及在我們的大多數資產中，我們會進行後端調整，資本未償還的時間越長，倍數就越高。

We have backend fee arrangements. Duration can also be extended because the case has progressed through the lower courts and has made it through objective milestones. And so while the movement of duration was a significant impact on this quarter, it doesn't necessarily change our view on the portfolio at all. So that gives you a little bit of more color around what happened in this quarter.

我們有後端費用安排。案件審理期限也可以延長，因為案件已經通過了下級法院的審理，並達到了客觀的里程碑。因此，儘管久期變動對本季產生了重大影響，但這並不一定會改變我們對投資組合的看法。這樣就能讓你對本季發生的事情有更詳細的了解了。

Flipping back to new business though and how that portfolio expands, the first piece on page 21 is to think about new definitive commitments. Chris highlighted the diversity of the risk bands associated with this year, not to mention the growth that we've seen in 2025 compared to where we were at the same point in 2024.

不過，回到新業務以及如何擴展業務組合的話題，第 21 頁的第一篇文章是思考新的確定性承諾。克里斯強調了今年風險等級的多樣性，更不用說與 2024 年同期相比，我們在 2025 年看到的成長了。

That also corresponds with a growth in deployments. Ultimately, the commitments are great, but you still put the money out and the cases are progressing, and it's the money that earns the returns. And so you can see our deployments here are have increased over 2025.

這也與部署數量的成長相吻合。最終，投入固然重要，但你仍需要投入資金，案件才能取得進展，而正是這些資金才能帶來回報。因此，您可以看到，到 2025 年，我們這裡的部署量有所增加。

And it's important to harken back. I'm not going to make a switch back to all the slides, but just the different diversity in the numbers of different new commitments, and we highlight that in some of the earlier slides that Chris mentioned.

回顧過去很重要。我不會把所有投影片都切換回去，但會重點介紹不同新承諾數量的多樣性，我們在克里斯提到的一些早期幻燈片中也強調了這一點。

I moved to 22 and talk about realizations. And it's important to note that we look at this business on a multi-period basis, not just on a single quarter. We highlighted that on some earlier slides, $310 million of realizations this year. The other thing that's important is we do not look at ROIC on a quarter by quarter basis or even on an annual basis, but rather on a blended basis across the entire portfolio.

我搬到了22歲，開始談論我的感悟。值得注意的是，我們看待這項業務是從多個時期為基準的，而不僅僅是從單一季度為基準。我們在之前的幾張投影片中強調過，今年已實現 3.1 億美元的收入。另一點很重要的是，我們不按季度甚至按年來查看 ROIC，而是以整個投資組合的綜合情況來查看。

And I want to remind folks that 43% ROIC that we see that occurred in 2025, we did have a very large event that ended quickly in Q1. That was a great IRR, but given the short duration resulted in a low ROIC. And so given where we stand, that we would expect to see that number obviously be lower.

我想提醒大家，我們看到的 2025 年 43% 的投資回報率，實際上是第一季發生的一件非常大的事件，但很快就結束了。雖然內部報酬率 (IRR) 很高，但由於持續時間短，導致投資報酬率 (ROIC) 較低。因此，鑑於我們目前的處境，我們預計這個數字顯然會更低。

I'll pause there to hand it over to Jon to talk more about the portfolio.

我先暫停一下，把麥克風交給 Jon，讓他繼續談談投資組合。

Thanks, Jordan. Thanks to you all for joining, and I'm going to turn to slide 23, which you've seen before, but I want to talk to it in a way that emphasizes and flushes out something Jordan said earlier, which is as a shareholder and running this business, I don't pay as much attention as Chris said to how we do in a particular period, except maybe to make sure that we are continuing to put out money.

謝謝你，喬丹。感謝各位的參與，接下來我要講到第 23 張幻燈片，你們之前可能已經看過了，但我想用一種強調和闡述喬丹之前說過的話的方式來談談它，那就是作為股東和經營這家公司，我不會像克里斯說的那樣關注我們在特定時期內的業績，除非是為了確保我們繼續投入資金。

And why is that so important? Why is the growth in commitments and deployments so important? You kind of understand from slide 23, it is a reminder that we have a really good asset class that when we are the ones managing that asset class and deploying capital into it, when you put out new money and a new deal, there's only three things that are going to happen.

為什麼這一點如此重要？為什麼增加承諾和部署如此重要？從第 23 張投影片中你就能大致了解，它提醒我們，我們擁有一個非常好的資產類別，當我們管理該資產類別並將資本投入其中時，當我們投入新資金和新交易時，只有三件事會發生。

It's going to go to trial and win, it's going to go to trial and lose, or it's going to settle. And over the course of our life, these numbers have stayed pretty steady. In any particular period, they could bump around because you could have one really large adjudication gain.

要嘛會開庭審理並勝訴，要嘛開庭審理並敗訴，要嘛達成和解。在我們的一生中，這些數字一直保持相當穩定。在任何特定時期，它們都可能出現波動，因為你可能會獲得一次非常大的裁決勝利。

Large adjudication losses are kind of harder, as Chris said, because I mean, they don't happen in the same way because we've got these asymmetric returns which I'll turn to on the next slide. So they're not as possible.

正如克里斯所說，大額裁決損失比較難處理，因為我的意思是，它們發生的方式不同，因為我們有這些不對稱的回報，我將在下一張幻燈片中討論這一點。所以它們並非那麼可能。

But when you look at this is what we're putting the money into that we know the majority of our matters are going to settle as long as we continue to pick good cases and our track record shows that we have been able to do that.

但仔細想想，我們把錢投入到這個領域，我們知道只要我們繼續挑選好的案件，大部分案件都會得到解決，而我們的過往記錄表明我們一直能夠做到這一點。

And the adjudication gains outnumber the adjudication losses both in number and size. And so you just look if you can produce, which we've stayed constant, 83% ROIC, 26% IRRs, you want be sure that pipeline is continuing to move -- continue to bring in new matters, and that is what we've been experiencing, which is experiencing, which is really wonderful.

裁決所得的金額和金額都超過了裁決所得的金額。所以，你只需要看看你是否能生產我們一直保持的83% ROIC和26% IRR，你要確保項目儲備持續成長——持續引入新項目，而這正是我們一直在經歷的，這真的很棒。

It is the thing we can control, as Chris said, we can't control court dates. We can do everything we can to make sure that parties and lawyers know the urgency and the importance of moving things forward and not agreeing to extensions, but courts are going to make those decisions.

正如克里斯所說，這是我們能控制的事情，但我們無法控制開庭日期。我們可以盡一切努力確保各方和律師了解推進事情進展的緊迫性和重要性，不要同意延期，但法院將做出這些決定。

What we can control is being out there in the market solving people's litigation problems by providing capital to those who need it to litigate effectively. If you turn to slide 24, you see the same theme, but in a different representation, which is basically, again, I described how the nature of the asset class as invested in by us and why that produces attractive returns.

我們能夠控制的是，在市場上為那些需要資金進行有效訴訟的人提供資金，從而解決人們的訴訟問題。如果你翻到第 24 張投影片，你會看到同樣的主題，但以不同的方式呈現，基本上，我再次描述了我們投資的資產類別的性質以及為什麼它能產生有吸引力的回報。

Here you actually see what we've achieved. You see the asymmetry of outcomes where we can have truly outsized returns, and for the smaller number of losses, it's much smaller numbers. And so you take these two slides together and you say, how did Burford do?

在這裡，您可以看到我們所取得的成就。你可以看到結果的不對稱性，一方面我們可以獲得真正巨大的回報，另一方面，損失的金額也小得多。所以你把這兩張幻燈片放在一起，然後說，伯福德做得怎麼樣？

Well, it continued to put out money into this very attractive asset class that has been generating these returns over time, and that to me is what, as Chris said, makes me so bullish about this business. And with that, I will turn it back over to Jordan.

嗯，它持續向這個極具吸引力的資產類別投入資金，而這個資產類別也一直在產生回報，正如克里斯所說，這正是我如此看好這家公司的原因。就這樣，我把麥克風交還給喬丹。

Thanks, Jon. So coming back to the asset management part of our business. And I'm going to focus on slide 27. To take a step back and remind folks where we are with asset management, we're continuing to deploy capital for the balance sheet, and we've been clear on the importance of doing that and enjoy the partnership that we do have with the sovereign wealth fund, which we also call the BOF-C portfolio.

謝謝你，喬恩。現在讓我們回到我們業務的資產管理部分。接下來我將重點介紹第27張投影片。回顧一下，提醒大家我們在資產管理方面所處的位置，我們正在繼續為資產負債表部署資本，我們一直明確表示這樣做的重要性，並且很享受與主權財富基金的合作關係，我們也稱之為 BOF-C 投資組合。

The rest of the other funds are in runoff, and so we wouldn't see continued management fees from those funds, and we'll see episodic performance fees from the funds. Overall, you'll see cash receipts from asset management and was approximately flat year-to-date at $17 million between '25 and '24.

其他基金都已停止運作，因此我們不會再收到這些基金的管理費，只會收到這些基金的臨時績效費。整體而言，資產管理的現金收入與 2025 年和 2024 年相比基本持平，約為 1,700 萬美元。

If you isolate just to the quarter and you look at the negative in the asset management, the reason for that is simply put that when fair values move and we then book a corresponding adjustment to the future potential profit sharing income that we would receive.

如果只看季度，觀察資產管理的負面情況，原因很簡單，就是當公允價值變動時，我們會對未來可能收到的利潤分成收入進行相應的調整。

And so if you have a negative there, in fair value movement, you'll have a negative with that. It doesn't impact our views necessarily of the future of the cases. So that gives you a little bit more color with respect to the quarter there.

因此，如果公允價值變動出現負值，那麼公允價值變動也會出現負值。這不一定會影響我們對案件未來走向的看法。這樣一來，你就能更清楚地了解這部分了。

Switching to page 29 now to go through some of the capital structure and expenses. We sit in a great cash position at $740 million. Obviously that number has been impacted by two things. One, which is the recent issuance of the $500 million notes in July of 2025.

現在翻到第 29 頁，了解資本結構和費用。我們目前擁有7.4億美元的現金儲備，情況非常樂觀。顯然，這個數字受到了兩方面因素的影響。其中之一是最近於 2025 年 7 月發行的 5 億美元債券。

And as a reminder, we do have a maturity coming due in December of 2026. And so part of that cash is sitting there to address that maturity. The bottom of the page shows the cash receipts again being consistent and coming back over $100 million in the third quarter.

再次提醒大家，我們有一筆債務將於 2026 年 12 月到期。因此，部分現金將用於償還到期債務。頁面底部顯示，現金收入再次保持穩定，第三季超過 1 億美元。

On our operating expenses on page 30, while we look at this also more frequently on an annual basis, and it's important to look at that, a couple of items I want to make sure to pull out. The first is when you look at the share-based and deferred compensation.

關於我們第 30 頁的營運費用，雖然我們每年都會更頻繁地查看這部分費用，而且查看這部分費用也很重要，但我想特別強調以下幾個方面。首先，我們需要看一下以股份為基礎的薪酬和遞延薪酬。

And I've discussed this before, but that also includes the movements in our share prices that impact it both up and down given the DCP program, but also what's included is a one-time item related to a mechanical acceleration of tenure-based awards that's vested at this -- in this period but haven't been paid out and that's a one-time impact. With respect to the G&A overall for the year, you also see that that's slightly up and that's due to increased costs associated with policy and planning.

我之前也討論過這個問題，這其中也包括DCP計劃對我們股價的漲跌產生的影響，但同時也包括一項與任期獎勵的機械加速相關的一次性項目，這些獎勵在此期間已經歸屬，但尚未支付，這是一次性影響。就全年的 G&A 費用而言，您還可以看到該費用略有上升，這是由於與政策和規劃相關的成本增加所致。

On page 31, some highlights, and in a couple of quarters this page will actually change. I mentioned before the $235 million that's in US dollars on this page. That's outstanding for the '26 maturity. Well, as we look to address that and we're addressing that similarly to how we addressed this year's '25, looking to potentially purchase in the open market as well as then addressing it at its final maturity, but that's the last of the bonds that has the covenant that's outlined on the left hand side of the page.

第 31 頁有一些亮點，而且在接下來的幾個季度裡，這一頁的內容實際上會發生變化。我之前提到過，這一頁的金額是 2.35 億美元，以美元計價。對於 2026 年到期的債券來說，這非常出色。嗯，我們正在著手解決這個問題，而且我們正以類似於今年處理 25 年債券的方式來解決這個問題，即考慮在公開市場上購買，然後在債券最終到期時進行處理，但這是最後一隻具有頁面左側概述的契約的債券。

We then move to the covenants associated with on the right hand side of the page, that's with the 144A US transactions. And as you can see at 0.9 times, we're well within our debt to tangible equity covenant levels, approximately five years averaged on the debt outstanding and a 7.4% weighted average cost.

接下來，我們來看看頁面右邊與 144A 美國交易相關的契約。如您所看到的，我們的債務與有形權益比率為 0.9 倍，遠低於我們的債務與有形權益契約水平，按未償債務計算，平均約為五年，加權平均成本為 7.4%。

So with that, I will turn it over to Chris to take us through Q&A.

那麼接下來，我將把問答環節交給克里斯。

Great. Thanks, Jordan. And rather than doing yet more closing remarks, why don't we just go straight to questions, operator?

偉大的。謝謝你，喬丹。與其再做更多結束語，不如我們直接進入問答環節吧，接線生？

(Operator Instructions) Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）馬克·德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Thanks. I appreciate all that new perspective on the YPF case. I've just had a related follow-up on that. Could you just give us a sense of potential timing of the appeal to the Second Circuit on the order for Argentina to turn over its YPF shares?

謝謝。我非常感謝您提供的關於 YPF 案件的所有新觀點。我剛收到一份相關的後續報告。您能否大致透露一下，阿根廷政府就其向第二巡迴上訴法院提出的移交 YPF 股份的命令的上訴時間可能會如何？

Sure. Although, like everything in, as you've heard from us today, the timing of litigation is inscrutable to some extent, but that appeal is going to be fully briefed, if I'm not mistaken, Jon, correct if I'm wrong with this, by sometime in December.

當然。雖然，就像今天我們所說的所有事情一樣，訴訟的時間安排在某種程度上是難以捉摸的，但如果我沒記錯的話，喬恩，如果我錯了請糾正我，上訴的詳細案情將在 12 月的某個時候完成。

And then after it's fully briefed, the court will schedule it for argument. There's no argument date for it at the moment. As you know from the main appeal, that can take a long time. It doesn't always take a long time, but it can take a long time.

之後，在案件陳述全部內容後，法院將安排庭審。目前還沒有確定辯論日期。正如你從主要上訴理由中了解到的，這可能需要很長時間。雖然不總是需要很長時間，但有時也可能需要很長時間。

And then after the oral argument of the appeal, there will be a court will go off and write a decision about, that again, that doesn't have any particularly fixed timing associated with it. So it's certainly not a 2025 event, it's likely but not certainly a 2026 event.

然後，在上訴的口頭辯論結束後，法院會就此作出裁決，而裁決的作出時間也沒有任何固定的安排。所以這肯定不是 2025 年發生的事件，很有可能是 2026 年發生的事件，但也不能確定。

Got it. And then just a question on realizations, how are you guys thinking about the trajectory of that over the coming years, particularly as we think about the impact from the pandemic on courts and the backlogs that created? Are you still getting -- are you seeing elevated realizations as courts play catch up and what might the implications be for the next couple of years?

知道了。那麼，關於實際情況，你們如何看待未來幾年的發展軌跡，特別是考慮到疫情對法院的影響以及由此造成的案件積壓？您是否仍然看到—隨著法院追趕進度，您是否看到更高的實現率？這對未來幾年可能會產生什麼影響？

Well, you're sort of -- we tried to show the data on a few different metrics when we did some of these slides. So some of the slides that we put together had some new information because we know people are focused on this theme.

嗯，你有點像——我們在製作這些幻燈片時，嘗試用一些不同的指標來展示數據。因此，我們製作的一些幻燈片包含了一些新訊息，因為我們知道大家都很關注這個主題。

And I think the looking at the rolling three year realization is kind of an interesting way to do it as opposed to having sort of quarter by quarter up and down shocks, and I don't know, Rob, if you want to put that back up again, that was slide 10.

我認為觀察滾動三年實現情況是一種很有趣的方法，而不是像按季度那樣經歷上下波動的衝擊。羅布，如果你想再放一遍，那是第 10 張幻燈片。

And so what that slide is telling us is there's quite a lot of activity going on. You've seen 61 assets so far this year have realizations. And if you look forward to next year, and again, like I don't want to use these kinds of numbers as predictors because courts change their mind about schedules all the time.

所以這張幻燈片告訴我們的是，現在有很多活動正在進行。今年到目前為止，您已經看到 61 項資產實現了變現。如果你展望明年，而且再次強調，我不想用這些數字作為預測指標，因為法院經常改變賽程。

But if you look at where we stand today, we have more events, more trials, more hearings, and so on, scheduled for the next 12 months, then we had for the 12 month period, a year ago. So you know what that says is there's this continuing velocity in the portfolio.

但如果你看看我們今天所處的位置，你會發現，未來 12 個月內安排的事件、審判、聽證會等等，比一年前的 12 個月要多得多。所以你知道這意味著什麼嗎？這意味著投資組合中存在持續的成長勢頭。

And the thing, of course, that drives settlement activity, cases really don't settle without a catalyst for them to settle. And so when Jon was showing you the slide that we've used before that show, really a very high level of settlement activity in the portfolio, in the upper 70%, I think it might even be 79% now.

當然，推動和解的因素是，如果沒有某種催化劑，案件是不會真正和解的。所以，當 Jon 向你們展示我們之前在那期節目中使用的幻燈片時，投資組合的結算活動水平確實非常高，達到了 70% 以上，我認為現在甚至可能達到了 79%。

So how do you get that settlement done? And the answer is, you need some pressure on the defendant usually to get there, and that pressure is a looming trial date. So when cases get set for trial and when trial approaches, that's the most likely time for them to resolve by settlement.

那麼，如何才能達成和解呢？答案是，通常需要對被告施加一些壓力才能達到目的，而這種壓力就是迫在眉睫的審判日期。因此，當案件進入審判階段或臨近審判時，最有可能透過和解解決。

So I just think you're seeing -- you're continuing to see forward momentum. At the same time, you have frustrating moments like we had this quarter, where we also saw courts not do things as quickly as we would have otherwise expected. And when that happens because of the relatively new evaluation approach that we use, that can have a negative impact on our unrealized gains loss -- gain and loss line.

所以我認為你現在看到的是——你看到的是持續向前發展的勢頭。同時，也會遇到像本季這樣令人沮喪的時刻，我們看到法院的處理速度沒有達到我們預期的水平。而由於我們採用了一種相對較新的評估方法，當這種情況發生時，可能會對我們的未實現損益——損益線產生負面影響。

Got it, it's very helpful. Thank you.

明白了，這很有幫助。謝謝。

So it looks like Julian Roberts is joining us by webcast today. So his question is, thanks for the presentation. Are you able to give us any more detail on the change of expected or model timing of the case whose duration has been extended? Jordan, do you want to try your hand up?

看來朱利安羅伯茨今天將透過網路直播與我們連線。所以他的問題是：謝謝你的演講。您能否提供更多關於案件預期或預計審理時間變更的細節，特別是案件審理時間延長的情況？喬丹，你想試試嗎？

Sure, and thanks for the question. I'm going to answer that in a second, and first just make sure everyone understands how we think about modeling. First and foremost, we look at all of our assets every quarter and the assets are constantly changing with a variety of different inputs, whether that's a milestone, an observable milestone event, whether it's expected proceeds or duration discount rate that I've mentioned.

當然，謝謝你的提問。我馬上就回答這個問題，首先要確保每個人都明白我們是如何看待建模的。首先，我們每季都會審視所有資產，而資產會隨著各種不同因素的變化而不斷變化，無論是里程碑事件、可觀察的里程碑事件，還是我提到的預期收益或期限折現率。

With respect to this, Julian, I'm not going to answer the part of saying, hey, which case or cases it was, I think that would be inappropriate. But overall, if you looked at the impact of the duration change, it's somewhere in the $40 million to $50 million of impact when you look at that compared to the overall deployed cost fair value associated with the non-YPF book.

關於這一點，朱利安，我不會回答「嘿，是哪個案例或哪些案例？」這個問題，我認為那樣回答是不合適的。但總的來說，如果你看一下期限變更的影響，與非 YPF 帳簿相關的整體已部署成本公允價值相比，其影響大約在 4000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元之間。

So we've got another webcast question, this from Jonathan Alexander at Aberdeen, who says, on the buyback, the logic that you have laid out makes sense, but if we anticipate a positive YPF return, isn't it merely a short-term levering of the business when the stock is cheap, that will then be paid off when the YPF result comes through and the overall risk to the business hasn't increased.

我們又收到一個網路直播問題，來自 Aberdeen 的 Jonathan Alexander，他說，關於股票回購，您闡述的邏輯很有道理，但如果我們預期 YPF 會有正回報，這難道不只是在股價便宜時對公司進行短期槓桿操作嗎？等到 YPF 業績公佈後，這些槓桿操作就會得到回報，而且公司的整體風險並沒有增加。

So, again, as I said, like we're not dogmatic and dug in on this point. It's something that we talk about a lot. I think frankly, my partner Jon Molot, would probably agree with you on that question. I think it all comes down to a question around the prudential management of the business.

所以，我再說一遍，就像我說的，我們在這個問題上並不固執己見。這是我們經常談論的話題。坦白說，我認為我的合夥人喬恩·莫洛特可能會同意你的觀點。我認為這一切歸根究底都取決於企業審慎的管理方式。

As we were just talking about in other contexts, we lack the ability to be able to accurately predict when cases are going to turn into cash. We have shown that we're pretty darn good at predicting whether they'll turn into cash.

正如我們剛才在其他場合討論的那樣，我們缺乏準確預測案件何時會轉化為現金的能力。我們已經證明，我們非常擅長預測它們是否會變成現金。

We've got a really long and successful track record of being able to do that. But that doesn't answer the when question. And of course, that sits somewhat uncomfortably beside a world where public debt does come with a web.

我們在這方面有著非常長久且成功的紀錄。但這並沒有回答「何時」這個問題。當然，這與公共債務錯綜複雜的現實世界相比，顯得有些格格不入。

And so the interest on the debt has to be paid and the principal has to be repaid on agreed timing, obviously, and it doesn't work, the debt holders don't say, oh well, the court delayed, so that's fine, we'll delay too, like that's just not how it works.

因此，債務的利息必須支付，本金必須按約定的時間償還，這是顯而易見的。但這樣做行不通，債權人不會說，哦，法院延期了，那沒關係，我們也延期，事情不是這樣的。

And so that's really the dilemma that we have always had, not even just in the context of a buyback, but in the context of how much leverage to use in the business in general, because you are not wanting to put the equity holders in the business at risk of the debt becoming an obstacle to be able to manage the business properly.

所以，這其實是我們一直以來面臨的困境，不僅在股票回購的背景下，而且在整個業務中使用多少槓桿也是一個問題，因為你不想讓企業的股東面臨債務成為企業正常管理障礙的風險。

Those are sort of the things that we weigh. And where we've come out thus far, and this has been talking to lots of investors and talking to advisers and talking to the Board and so on, is to be on the prudential side of that equation.

這些都是我們會權衡的因素。到目前為止，我們得出的結論是，在與眾多投資者、顧問、董事會等溝通後，我們應該站在審慎的一邊。

But as I said, it's something that people are frustrated with the share price. Jon and I are frustrated with the share price. Our team is frustrated with the share price, so it's something that we welcome continued dialogue and debate about.

但正如我所說，人們對股價感到不滿。我和喬恩對股價感到失望。我們的團隊對股價感到失望，因此我們歡迎就此繼續進行對話和討論。

Let's see. There's another question, this is from Steve Thompson about buying and selling of shares. So let me explain how Jon and I largely buy shares in the business. So we make use as this is a very common US corporate practice, which is considerably less common in the United Kingdom.

讓我們來看看。還有一個問題，這是史蒂夫湯普森提出的，關於股票買賣的問題。那麼讓我解釋一下我和喬恩是如何大量購買公司股份的。因此，我們採用了這種做法，因為這是在美國企業中非常常見的做法，而這種做法在英國則相當不常見。

So what we do is we take cash income and we put that cash income into a deferred vehicle. And we could in that deferred vehicle buy something other than Burford stock. We could buy S&P 500 indexes, but Jon and I don't do that largely.

所以我們所做的就是將現金收入投入遞延投資工具。我們可以透過該延期投資工具購買伯福德股票以外的其他資產。我們當然可以買標普500指數，但我和喬恩基本上不這麼做。

We principally have been taking that cash in substantial quantity now, and using it to put against Burford stock. And when we do that, it's disclosed publicly in securities filings. But the stock itself lives within the plan, in the hands of a custodian as opposed to living in my own individual brokerage account. So that's how the significant purchases are going. But they are real life purchases, and Burford typically goes into the market and makes those purchases, to hedge the position as well.

我們現在主要採取的策略是，大量提取現金，並用它來買入伯福德股票。當我們這樣做時，會在證券文件中公開揭露。但股票本身存在於該計劃中，由託管人保管，而不是存在於我自己的個人經紀帳戶中。這就是大宗採購的進展。但這些都是現實生活中的買賣，伯福德通常會進入市場進行這些買賣，以對沖風險。

Another webcast question from [Igor Pulli], sorry if I messed up that name. Has there been any impact from the US government shutdown? No, is the short answer. In fact, and this is why the shutdown progresses. Like living in the United States, you don't really notice that there's a shutdown going on except maybe when you go to the airport sometimes.

又收到 [Igor Pulli] 的網路直播提問，如果我拼錯了他的名字，請見諒。美國政府停擺是否造成了任何影響？簡而言之，答案是否定的。事實上，這就是政府停擺持續進行的原因。就像住在美國一樣，你通常不會注意到政府停擺，除非你偶爾去機場。

And -- but it hasn't had any impact at all on our litigation portfolio. The courts are continuing to operate. The place in litigation it has impacted things is with respect to the US government. But that doesn't really affect us. So if the US government as a party, they've been asking for delays and accommodations and so on, but that's not a factor in our book.

但這對我們的訴訟組合沒有任何影響。法院仍在正常運作。它在訴訟中產生影響的地方在於與美國政府有關的事項。但這其實對我們沒什麼影響。所以，如果美國政府作為一方，他們一直在要求延期和特殊安排等等，但這在我們看來並不是一個因素。

So I'm waiting for another question that is being typed from [Thomas Flegel]. With several peers facing refinancing and balance sheet pressures, do you see opportunities for Burford to accelerate growth through portfolio or corporate acquisitions as part of broader industry consolidation?

所以我正在等待另一個正在輸入的問題。[托馬斯·弗萊格爾]鑑於多家同業面臨再融資和資產負債表壓力，您認為作為更廣泛的行業整合的一部分，Burford 是否有機會透過投資組合或企業收購來加速成長？

I think the short answer is, well, we don't know. It's -- we've certainly talked about the competitive landscape before, and you've seen a migration in what has been going on in the competitive landscape a little bit. If you went back some years, you would have found litigation finance mostly being done by smaller pure play litigation finance specialists.

我覺得簡短的回答是，我們不知道。我們之前當然討論過競爭格局，而且你已經看到競爭格局發生了一些變化。如果回到幾年前，你會發現訴訟融資大多是由規模較小的純粹訴訟融資專家公司完成的。

And those firms have -- many of them have struggled to grow, and the financial crisis -- sorry, the COVID really, the pandemic really caused them some distress because that really did slow down durations and many of them are organized as 220 style funds, and that really threw the ability to earn performance fees into some degree of chaos.

這些公司——其中許多公司都難以發展壯大，金融危機——抱歉，其實是新冠疫情，疫情確實給它們帶來了一些困擾，因為這確實減緩了期限，而且它們中的許多都是以 220 型基金的形式組織的，這確實使它們賺取業績費的能力陷入了某種程度的混亂。

And so you've seen, as the question suggests, you've seen some level of distress among both of the other public peers that we have out there, the other public much smaller players. The -- where that all shakes out at the end is a little bit unclear.

正如問題所暗示的那樣，你已經看到，我們其他的兩家上市公司，也就是規模小得多的上市公司，都出現了一定程度的困境。最終結果如何，目前還不太清楚。

We're always happy to look at things, but Jon has a pretty sharp pencil when it comes to things, and forms, our team forms its own view about value, which sometimes is lower than the valuation expectations of others, so we'll just have to see how it all plays out.

我們總是樂於了解情況，但 Jon 在這方面眼光很準，他和我們團隊都會形成自己對價值的看法，有時這種看法會低於其他人的估值預期，所以我們只能拭目以待了。

And with thanks for another investor who says, not even as a question, just well done to management. I agree completely on the view of not doing a buyback, invest in the business. And now I think there is a question on the phone.

也要感謝另一位投資者，他甚至沒有以疑問的口吻，只是簡單地對管理層表示讚賞。我完全同意不進行股票回購，而是投資企業的觀點。現在我想電話那頭有個問題。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Yeah, thanks. Just a follow-up question on kind of the recent commitments, deployments. Whether there's any kind of noticeable trend worth calling out on kind of the distribution of those among some of the shorter duration, lower ROIC versus some of the longer duration higher ROIC.

嗯，謝謝。關於最近的承諾和部署，我還有一個後續問題。是否存在值得注意的趨勢，即短期、較低 ROIC 的投資與長期、較高 ROIC 的投資之間的分佈。

Jon, do you want to comment on that?

喬恩，你對此有什麼看法？

Sure. I guess what I'd say is our approach is to be all things to all people, so it depends what comes in the door, and we end up achieving diversification, not just of the sort that Jordan described geographically and by subject matter, but also in terms of duration and risk.

當然。我想說的是，我們的方法是滿足所有人的所有需求，所以這取決於有什麼需求，最終我們實現了多元化，不僅像 Jordan 所描述的那樣在地域和主題上多元化，而且在持續時間和風險方面也多元化。

I don't know -- like I haven't -- I don't have the numbers at hand as to the portion of new deployments that are on the shorter or longer, although I did would note Jordan noted that a sizable chunk of the new business that was done is in deals that are -- that have the capacity to generate higher returns and higher ROICs.

我不知道——就像我沒有——我手頭上沒有關於新部署項目中短期或長期項目比例的具體數據，儘管我確實注意到喬丹指出，相當一部分新業務都是那些能夠產生更高回報和更高投資回報率的交易。

Jordan, if you have the statistics more in hand than I do, I would just be talking anecdotally. We've put out -- we've done some big deals that are -- that have very high profit potential. Of course, we do know is things can settle earlier and you can end up with lower returns earlier but with attractive IRRs, but if they go as we would project, they're meatier investments with higher upside potential.

喬丹，如果你掌握的統計數據比我多，那我就只能憑個人經驗來談了。我們已經達成了一些利潤潛力非常高的巨額交易。當然，我們也知道，情況可能會提前穩定下來，你可能會提前獲得較低的回報，但內部報酬率 (IRR) 會很有吸引力。但如果情況按照我們的預測發展，那麼這些投資將更有價值，上漲潛力也更高。

Okay, that's helpful. Just to follow-up for Jordan on, I guess on slide 9. The lack of kind of the larger north of $25 million commitments speak to the point that Jon just made, are you less likely to put a lot of money out the door if you're not expecting a more immediate return, or is that kind of unrelated?

好的，這很有幫助。我只是想跟喬丹在第 9 張投影片上的內容做個後續說明。缺乏超過 2500 萬美元的大額投資承諾，這印證了 Jon 剛才提出的觀點：如果你不指望立即獲得回報，你是否不太可能投入大量資金？還是這兩者之間並無關聯？

I wouldn't necessarily correlate the two. We do see opportunities that are smaller but can also be more towards the monetization, in which we're putting more money out the door earlier. So I don't want to necessarily equate the two.

我並不認為這兩者之間一定有關聯。我們確實看到了一些規模較小但更有利於獲利的機會，在這些機會中，我們會更早投入更多資金。所以我並不想把這兩者等同起來。

Okay, fair enough. All right. Thank you.

好吧，這說得有道理。好的。謝謝。

So we've got some more sort of capital allocation buyback related questions and comments. And so if I sort of sum them up, like one perspective was, will over time, this dynamic change? If we're successful in meeting our objective of doubling the base portfolio by 2030, that obviously means we'll be doing a significantly larger number of cases.

所以我們還有一些與資本配置回購相關的問題和評論。所以，如果我把它們總結一下，例如其中一個觀點是，隨著時間的推移，這種動態會改變嗎？如果我們成功實現了 2030 年將基礎投資組合翻倍的目標，那顯然意味著我們將處理更多案件。

And one hopes at some point, a lot of large numbers kicks in and you get more predictable, steadier returns. And I think that there's some truth in that. We have sort of not succeeded in achieving that thus far because of the way that the asset class has grown and the way we've been able to grow the asset class.

人們希望在某個時候，大量的大數字能夠發揮作用，從而獲得更可預測、更穩定的回報。我認為這其中有一定的道理。由於資產類別的成長方式以及我們實現資產類別成長的方式，我們至今還沒有成功實現這一目標。

And so we are doing much larger transactions than we were a decade ago. If we had stayed at our average ticket size a decade ago and had the business of the size it is today, then I think you would have that kind of greater predictability, but at the same time you'd have such a volume of business that I think the OpEx and the business model would be slightly challenged.

因此，我們現在進行的交易規模比十年前大得多。如果我們十年前保持平均客單價，並且擁有今天這樣的業務規模，那麼我認為你會獲得更大的可預測性，但與此同時，業務量也會如此之大，我認為營運支出和商業模式會受到一些挑戰。

And so because we have more than quadrupled the average ticket size, that has led to us having this still this dependence on pretty large cases for a significant portion of the returns. And we haven't yet reached or even frankly come close to the sort of the law of large numbers point.

因此，由於平均票面金額增加了四倍多，導致我們仍然依賴相當大額的案件才能獲得相當一部分回報。我們還沒有達到，甚至坦白說，還沒有接近大數定律所揭示的那種臨界點。

Will that change in the future and will that result in us having a greater sense of predictability of cash flows such that we would expand our capital return options? I think that's entirely possible. And of course, we also have the dynamic of YPF sitting out there because assuming a positive return from YPF, that is a very large cash event for us as well, that as we've said repeatedly to shareholders, would require a discussion with shareholders about what to do in terms of capital utilization and capital return. So that's sort of where we are on the buyback front.

未來這種情況會改變嗎？這會讓我們對現金流有更強的可預測性，從而擴大我們的資本回報選擇嗎？我認為這完全有可能。當然，我們還有 YPF 的動態，因為假設 YPF 獲得正回報，這對我們來說也是一筆非常大的現金流，正如我們反復向股東們所說，這將需要與股東們討論在資本利用和資本回報方面應該怎麼做。這就是我們目前在回購方面的情況。

I know that there are also people who are going to say, but it's a accrete, right, who are just going to do the corporate finance math and say, look at the book value, look at the share price, do the math, you should instead of putting a new dollar into a new case, you should put that dollar into the existing portfolio.

我知道也有人會說，但這只是累積效應，對吧？他們會進行公司財務計算，然後說，看看賬面價值，看看股價，算賬，與其把新投資的1美元投入新項目，不如把這1美元投入現有投資組合。

And I understand that corporate finesse in that, which is why we keep on having this discussion. But I think if you go back to the slide that we showed earlier, I think that it is not as simple in a levered business, that isn't always reliably producing positive cash flow. I don't think it's as simple as just doing the corporate finesse in that.

我理解其中的企業運作技巧，這也是我們不斷討論這個問題的原因。但我認為，如果你回顧我們之前展示的幻燈片，你會發現，對於槓桿企業來說，情況並沒有那麼簡單，因為槓桿企業並不總是能穩定地產生正現金流。我認為這並非僅僅是運用一些商業技巧就能解決的問題。

But as I said, it's something that we don't claim a monopoly of brilliance on. And so it's really something that we're happy to hear from shareholders about as we continue to walk down the road.

但正如我所說，我們並不認為我們壟斷了這方面的才華。因此，在我們繼續前進的過程中，我們非常樂意聽到股東們的這些回饋。

And with that, I am told we are done. So thank you all very much for your time and attention. We enjoy being able to give you these updates, and hopefully, we shared a little more clarity on our views about what's going on with the YPF and with the business as a whole.

就這樣，有人告訴我，我們的工作結束了。非常感謝大家抽空關注。我們很高興能夠向大家提供這些最新消息，希望我們能更清楚地闡明我們對 YPF 和整個產業現狀的看法。

We remain bullish and fans, I'm sorry for my raspy voice. So thank you all for joining us today, and we look forward to talking to you soon.

我們依然看好市場，各位粉絲，抱歉我的聲音有點沙啞。感謝各位今天蒞臨，我們期待很快與您再次交流。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference call for today. Thank you all for joining, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與，現在可以斷開連結了。祝大家今天過得愉快。