使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Good afternoon and good morning everyone. And thank you for your interest in BP's full-year 2025 results. I'm delighted to welcome our guests in the room and those on the webcast. I'm joined today by Carol Howle, interim Chief Executive Officer; Kate Thomson, Chief Financial Officer; and Gordon Birrell, Executive Vice President, Production and Operations.
各位下午好/早安。感謝您對BP 2025年全年業績的關注。我很高興歡迎各位賓客來到現場,以及透過網路直播收看的各位賓客。今天與我一同出席的有:臨時執行長卡羅爾·豪爾;財務長凱特·湯姆森;以及生產營運執行副總裁戈登·比雷爾。
Before I hand over to Carol, let me draw your attention to our cautionary statement. In this presentation, we will make forward-looking statements that refer to our estimates, plans and expectations. Actual results and outcomes could differ materially due to factors we note on this slide and in our UK and SEC filings. Please refer to our annual report, stock exchange announcement, and SEC filings for more details. These documents are available on our website.
在將發言權交給卡羅爾之前,請允許我提請大家注意我們的警示聲明。在本次演示中,我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述涉及我們的估計、計劃和預期。實際結果和最終結果可能會因我們在本投影片以及我們在英國和美國證券交易委員會文件中提到的因素而與預期有重大差異。更多詳情請參閱我們的年度報告、證券交易所公告和美國證券交易委員會文件。這些文件可在我們的網站上查閱。
And with that, over to you, Carol.
那麼,接下來就交給你了,卡蘿。
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Thank you, Craig, and it's a real privilege to be here as interim CEO ahead of Meg O'Neill's arrival as Chief Executive Officer at the beginning of April. And on behalf of the entire BP team, I do just want to take this opportunity to thank Murray for his 34 years of service, his leadership and contributions to the company.
謝謝你,克雷格。在梅格·奧尼爾於四月初正式就任執行長之前,我非常榮幸能在這裡擔任臨時執行長。我謹代表整個 BP 團隊,藉此機會感謝 Murray 34 年來為公司做出的貢獻、領導能力和卓越表現。
So, stepping back for a moment, as we started 2025 it was clear to us that this was a year of turnaround. We hadn't been performing as strongly as we should have been, and that required urgent and focused intervention. And we have made good progress in 2025 to address that.
所以,讓我們回顧一下,在2025年開始,我們很清楚這將是轉折之年。我們之前的表現沒有達到應有的水平,這需要緊急而有針對性的干預。我們在2025年在這方面取得了良好進展。
Kate, Gordon and I will spend around 30 minutes talking through our performance highlights and delivery of our plan. And we know we've got more to do. So we've got more to do to accelerate the delivery and to position the company for the future opportunities that we have ahead of us. And the team and I have great conviction in our potential to deliver significant growth in shareholder value. And from my 25 years in BP, I know we have fantastic assets and we've got exceptional people.
凱特、戈登和我將花大約 30 分鐘討論我們的業績亮點和計劃執行情況。我們知道還有更多工作要做。因此,我們還有更多工作要做,以加快交付速度,並使公司為未來面臨的機會做好準備。我和我的團隊都堅信我們有潛力為股東創造顯著的價值成長。我在BP工作了25年,我知道我們擁有優秀的資產和傑出的人才。
Our strategic direction is right. We've made a good start in delivering against the plan that we laid out 12 months ago, and I just want to thank everyone at BP for that delivery. And as I said, we look forward to Meg joining in April. She's an outstanding leader and together as a leadership team, we're going to continue to drive forward our strategy in accelerating the turnaround of this great company.
我們的戰略方向是正確的。我們在執行 12 個月前製定的計劃方面取得了良好的開端,我只想感謝 BP 的每一位成員為此所做的努力。正如我所說,我們期待梅格在四月加入我們。她是一位傑出的領導者,我們將作為一個領導團隊,繼續推進我們的策略,加速這家偉大公司的轉變。
Now Kate ran through some of the highlights on the video at 7:00 AM, so I'll just recap a few of them. Our operational performance was strong across the group, reported upstream production was lower than 2024, which reflected portfolio changes, but underlying production was held broadly flat, and we've exceeded our annual guidance from 12 months ago. We set new records in upstream plant reliability and refinery availability, with both above 96% for the year.
凱特在早上 7 點回顧了影片中的一些亮點,所以我只簡單概括一下其中幾個。集團整體營運表現強勁,報告顯示上游產量低於 2024 年水平,這反映了投資組合的變化,但基礎產量基本上保持平穩,並且我們已超過 12 個月前的年度預期。我們在上游工廠可靠性和煉油廠可用性方面都創下了新紀錄,這兩項指標全年均超過 96%。
We started up seven major projects, and our reserves replacement ratio was 90%, up from an average of around 50% in the previous two years. Based on provisional data, our operational emissions in 2025 were 37% less than in 2019, a reduction well in excess of our 20% target.
我們啟動了七個重大項目,儲量更新率達到 90%,高於前兩年平均約 50% 的水平。根據初步數據,我們 2025 年的營運排放量比 2019 年減少了 37%,這減量遠超過了我們 20% 的目標。
Our supply, trading and shipping business remains a distinctive competitive advantage for BP delivering an average around 4% uplift to BP's returns, which now extends over the past six years. We concluded the strategic review of Castrol with an agreement to sell a 65% shareholding, and we believe the sale and the retention of a position in Castrol represents a very good outcome for shareholders. It allows us to realize value today, while continuing to benefit from future growth of that business. And in one year, we've completed and announced over $11 billion of our $20 billion divestment program.
我們的供應、貿易和運輸業務仍然是 BP 的獨特競爭優勢,平均為 BP 的收益提高了約 4%,這一優勢已持續了六年。我們完成了對嘉實多的策略評估,並達成協議出售 65% 的股份。我們認為,出售股份並保留在嘉實多的股份對股東來說是一個非常好的結果。它使我們能夠在今天實現價值,同時繼續從該業務的未來成長中受益。一年內,我們已經完成並宣布了 200 億美元資產剝離計劃中的 110 億美元以上。
Let me now turn to safety, our number one priority. Our commitment to our safety goals is unwavering. It's to eliminate fatalities, life-changing injuries, and tier one process safety events across our operations. Tragically, in 2025, four colleagues lost their lives while working in our US retail business. Two were killed in separate incidents where they were struck by passing vehicles as they carried out emergency roadside assistance.
現在讓我談談安全問題,這是我們的首要任務。我們對安全目標的承諾堅定不移。其目的是消除我們營運過程中發生的死亡事故、改變人生的傷害事故以及一級流程安全事故。令人痛心的是,2025 年,四位同事在我們美國零售業務工作期間不幸喪生。兩名救援人員在不同的事故中喪生,他們在執行緊急路邊救援任務時被過往車輛撞擊。
In response, we've permanently stopped roadside assistance next to active traffic lanes, a decision made solely to protect the safety of our people. Our thoughts remain with their families, friends and colleagues of the four people who lost their lives. On process safety, we've seen encouraging progress. Combined tier 1 and tier 2 events are down by around (inaudible) compared with the previous year. While process safety has improved, we recognize we have more to do. We must learn from every incident and every challenge to keep us safe today and tomorrow.
為此,我們已永久停止在繁忙的交通車道旁提供路邊援助服務,這項決定完全是為了保護我們員工的安全。我們向四位罹難者的家人、朋友和同事致以最深切的慰問。在製程安全方面,我們已經看到了令人鼓舞的進展。一級和二級賽事的總數量比前一年減少了約(聽不清楚)。雖然製程安全有所改善,但我們意識到還有更多工作要做。我們必須從每一次事故和每一次挑戰中學到教訓,才能保障我們今天和明天的安全。
Turning then to our primary targets, where we've made good progress this year. Kate will provide further details on each of them shortly, but the headlines are, we increased adjusted free cash flow by around 55% in 2025 on a price adjusted basis. Net debt was $22.2 billion at the end of last year, which is $800 million lower than at the end of 2024. We've now delivered $2.8 billion of our $4 billion to $5 billion structural cost reduction target since the start of the program, including around $2 billion in 2025.
接下來談談我們的主要目標,今年我們在這方面取得了良好進展。Kate 稍後將提供每項的更多細節,但主要內容是,我們預計 2025 年經價格調整後的自由現金流將增加約 55%。截至去年年底,淨債務為 222 億美元,比 2024 年底減少了 8 億美元。自該計畫啟動以來,我們已實現了 40 億至 50 億美元的結構性成本削減目標中的 28 億美元,其中包括 2025 年的約 20 億美元。
Going forward, we have increased this target to $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion, which includes the expected cost reductions from the divestment of Castrol. Kate will cover that shortly.
展望未來,我們將這一目標提高到 55 億美元至 65 億美元,其中包括剝離嘉實多業務帶來的預期成本降低。凱特稍後會談到這一點。
And return on average capital employed was around 14% in 2025 on a price adjusted basis, and that's up from 12% in 2024. So we are executing our plan, we're taking decisive action on costs, capital and portfolio. And that combined with the board's decision to suspend the share buybacks and fully allocate excess cash to the balance sheet, that will create a strong platform to invest with discipline into our deep popper of oil and gas opportunities.
2025 年,以價格調整後的平均資本報酬率約為 14%,高於 2024 年的 12%。所以我們正在執行我們的計劃,我們正在對成本、資本和投資組合採取果斷行動。再加上董事會決定暫停股票回購並將剩餘現金全部用於資產負債表,這將為我們有紀律地投資於我們豐富的石油和天然氣機會創造一個強大的平台。
In the near term, this is supported by three more major projects that we expect to bring online by the end of 2027, with six more projects sanctioned. We're on track to bring a further 8 to 10 projects online between 2028 and 2030. And as we look to the long-term, our success in exploration and access in 2025 has created a real sense of excitement around the company and around the opportunities that we have ahead of us, including in the Middle East, Brazil, and Namibia.
短期內,我們預計到 2027 年底將有三個重大項目上線,另有六個項目已獲批准,這將為此提供支援。我們預計在 2028 年至 2030 年間再推出 8 至 10 個項目。展望長遠,我們在 2025 年勘探和准入方面的成功,讓公司上下以及我們未來所面臨的機會(包括在中東、巴西和納米比亞的機會)都感到無比興奮。
And there's more to come with planned exploration wells this year, including in Libya, Angola, Brazil, and the Gulf of America. So we see potential to drive disciplined organic production growth over the longer-term, underpinned by our distinctive resource hopper and our capability, our people, our technology, our experience, and that will maximize value for our shareholders.
今年還將有更多勘探井投入使用,包括在利比亞、安哥拉、巴西和美洲灣。因此,我們看到了在長期內推動穩健的有機生產成長的潛力,這得益於我們獨特的資源儲備、能力、員工、技術和經驗,這將為我們的股東創造最大價值。
So more on that from Gordon shortly, as well as the significant progress being made by the team in the downstream, which I'll cover and come back to later.
稍後 Gordon 將對此進行更多介紹,此外,下游團隊也取得了重大進展,我稍後會對此進行報道並再次提及。
But for now, let me hand over to Kate.
但現在,讓我把麥克風交給凱特。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Thank you, Carol. And good afternoon everyone, it's great to see you all here. Thank you for joining us.
謝謝你,卡羅爾。大家下午好,很高興見到大家。感謝您的參與。
We covered our fourth-quarter and full-year results in the video released earlier today at 7:00 AM UK time, so I'll just do a quick recap of the headlines here. We generated underlying replacement cost profit or net income of $7.5 billion in 2025 against the backdrop of a weaker price environment. This result was underpinned by strong operating performance, which Carol already highlighted.
我們在今天英國時間早上 7 點發布的影片中介紹了第四季度和全年業績,所以我在這裡只快速回顧一下主要內容。在價格環境疲軟的背景下,我們預計 2025 年將實現 75 億美元的基本重置成本利潤或淨收入。這一結果得益於強勁的營運業績,卡羅爾先前已強調這一點。
Operating cash flow for the year was $24.5 billion, including an adjusted working capital build of $2.9 billion this year. We improved capital efficiency and tightened further our discipline, delivering full year CapEx of $14.5 billion, including a reduction of organic CapEx to $13.6 billion.
本年度經營現金流為 245 億美元,其中包括本年度調整後的營運資本增加 29 億美元。我們提高了資本效率,進一步加強了紀律,全年資本支出為 145 億美元,其中有機資本支出減少至 136 億美元。
For 2025, including the fourth quarter dividend announced this morning, shareholder distributions for the year were around 30% of our 2025 operating cash flow and within the guidance issued last February. As mentioned in this morning's release, the guidance for shareholder distributions is now retired, but the dividend remains our first financial priority.
2025 年,包括今天早上宣布的第四季股利在內,股東分紅約占我們 2025 年經營現金流的 30%,符合去年 2 月發布的指導方針。正如今天早上發布的公告中所述,股東分紅指引現已取消,但股利仍是我們首要的財務優先事項。
As we guided in our trading statement, we recognized impairments of around $4 billion after tax this quarter. These impairment charges are largely related to our transition businesses, including biogas and renewables where we took decisive action to manage our pace of growth and to high grade our portfolio to maximize returns. While these are non-cash adjustments in our financial results, we do recognize that every impairment reflects a prior capital outlay.
正如我們在交易聲明中所述,本季稅後確認減損約 40 億美元。這些減損費用主要與我們的轉型業務有關,包括沼氣和再生能源,我們採取了果斷措施來控製成長速度,並對我們的投資組合進行升級,以最大化收益。雖然這些是我們財務表現中的非現金調整,但我們確實認識到,每項減損都反映了先前的資本支出。
We're committed to doing better for our shareholders on capital allocation, driven by a disciplined and rigorous focus on returns as we progress only the best opportunities from our hopper.
我們致力於在資本配置方面為股東創造更好的收益,秉持嚴謹的紀律和對回報的專注,只把握我們手中最好的投資機會。
Now I'd like to provide more details on the progress we've made on our four primary targets in 2025. We're 4 quarters into our 12 quarter plan, and we've made a good start and we are focused on accelerating wherever we can. If I start with adjusted free cash flow, we're progressing ahead of our target for greater than 20% compound annual growth through 2027. On both, a reported and a price adjusted basis, we generated around $13 billion of adjusted free cash flow.
現在我想詳細介紹我們在 2025 年實現四個主要目標方面取得的進展。我們的 12 個季度計劃已經進行了 4 個季度,我們取得了良好的開端,我們將專注於在力所能及的範圍內加快步伐。如果從調整後的自由現金流來看,我們目前的進展超過了2027年達到20%以上複合年增長率的目標。無論以報告數據或以價格調整後的數據計算,我們都產生了約 130 億美元的調整後自由現金流。
Our targets are presented on $70 (inaudible) per barrel at 2024, so on a price adjusted basis, this represents around a 55% growth from last year. This achievement was supported by interventions made on CapEx, the significant improvement in downstream operating cash flow generation, and good progress in the upstream.
我們的目標是到 2024 年油價達到每桶 70 美元(聽不清楚),因此,以價格調整後,這比去年增長約 55%。這項成就得益於資本支出方面的干預措施、下游經營現金流的顯著改善以及上游的良好進展。
Moving on to return on capital employed, on a price adjusted basis, return on average capital employed increased from around 12% in 2024 to around 14% in 2025. We remain confident in achieving our price adjusted target of over 16% in 2027.
接下來看資本報酬率,以價格調整後,平均資本報酬率從 2024 年的約 12% 增加到 2025 年的約 14%。我們仍有信心在 2027 年實現價格調整後超過 16% 的目標。
Moving to costs, where we are fundamentally shifting the cost performance culture right across the organization to safely achieve top quartile wherever possible. In 2025 we delivered around $2 billion of reductions, a material step up from 2024. This brings cumulative reductions to $2.8 billion to date. That's equivalent to around 60% of our $4 billion to $5 billion dollar target by 2027 versus the 2023 baseline.
轉而關注成本,我們正在從根本上改變整個組織的成本績效文化,以盡可能安全地實現前四分之一的水準。2025 年,我們實現了約 20 億美元的減排目標,比 2024 年有了顯著提高。這使得迄今為止的累計減免額達到28億美元。這相當於我們在 2027 年達到 40 億至 50 億美元目標的 60% 左右,而 2023 年的基準線則為 60%。
Reflecting the recently announced outcome of the Castrol Strategic Review, we now expect to deliver structural cost reductions of $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion by 2027. And as a reminder, this doesn't include any expected additional savings from the intended sale of [Argylls] and [Kirkuk] refinery.
根據嘉實多戰略評估最近公佈的結果,我們現在預計到 2027 年將實現 55 億至 65 億美元的結構性成本削減。需要提醒的是,這還不包括出售 [Argylls] 和 [Kirkuk] 煉油廠預計帶來的額外節省。
Importantly, our cost reductions have more than offset around $2 billion of costs related to growing our business and environmental factors such as inflation, resulting in underlying operating expenditure reduced by over $700 million since 2023.
重要的是,我們的成本削減已經抵消了與業務成長和通貨膨脹等環境因素相關的約 20 億美元的成本,使得自 2023 年以來,基本營運支出減少了 7 億美元以上。
Looking ahead, we plan to deliver a further $1.2 billion to $2.2 billion of structural cost reductions. After taking account of an assumption for inflation and growth costs, we expect to see an acceleration in the reduction of our underlying operating expenditures from now through to 2027. Taken together, this means underlying operating expenditure could reduce to around $19 billion to $20 billion by 2027.
展望未來,我們計劃進一步削減 12 億至 22 億美元的結構性成本。考慮到通貨膨脹和成長成本的假設,我們預計從現在到 2027 年,我們的基本營運支出將加速下降。綜合來看,這意味著到 2027 年,基本營運支出可能會減少到 190 億至 200 億美元左右。
Based on cost benchmarking and competitive analysis, we believe we're making good progress. We're ahead of plan in some areas, behind in others, but overall on track.
根據成本基準分析和競爭分析,我們認為我們取得了良好的進展。我們在某些方面進度超前,在其他方面進度落後,但總體而言,一切都在按計劃進行。
In oil and gas, the business has maintained its top quartile cost position, keeping unit production costs at around $6 per barrel on average over the last four years. This is supported by the delivery of around $600 million of structural cost reductions in 2025, offsetting inflationary pressures and business growth costs. Not all of our operated regions rank as top quartile on cost, and we are in action to safely address this.
在石油和天然氣領域,該業務一直保持著成本處於前四分之一的水平,過去四年來,單位生產成本平均維持在每桶 6 美元左右。此外,公司還計劃在 2025 年削減約 6 億美元的結構性成本,以抵消通膨壓力和業務成長成本。並非我們營運的所有地區都能在成本方面排名前四分之一,我們正在採取措施安全地解決這個問題。
In customers over the last four years, our cost performance benchmarked in the middle to lower quartile range, and as a result, we laid out a target at the CMU to lower our total cash cost to gross margin ratio by over 10 percentage-points by 2027, and we are now halfway there. We delivered $700 million of structural cost reductions which contributed to this improvement. We believe this brings us up to the higher end of the second quartile, and we are in action to be firmly within the top quartile by 2027.
過去四年,我們在客戶成本績效方面處於中低水平,因此,我們在成本管理部門制定了一個目標,即到 2027 年將總現金成本與毛利率之比降低 10 個百分點以上,而我們現在已經完成了一半。我們實現了7億美元的結構性成本削減,促成了這項改善。我們相信這將使我們躋身第二四分位數的較高水平,我們正在努力爭取在 2027 年穩居前四分之一。
Turning to areas of our business where we have more to do to safely reduce our cost base. In refining, we have a target of sustainably reducing our cash breakeven by $3 per barrel by 2027. That's equivalent to around $1.5 billion of additional cash flow. This year we delivered around 80% of our cash break-even target, mostly through commercial optimization and improved availability.
接下來,我們將著手處理公司業務中需要加強的、以安全降低成本的領域。在煉油方面,我們的目標是到 2027 年將現金損益平衡點持續降低每桶 3 美元。這相當於約15億美元的額外現金流。今年我們實現了約 80% 的現金損益平衡目標,主要得益於商業優化和可用性的提高。
Structural cost reductions also contributed around $300 million this year, driven primarily by optimization of maintenance and supply chain efficiencies. We need to continue to safely lower costs to improve our competitive positioning and underpin our aim of being first quartile margin per barrel and second quartile refining cost per barrel in 2027.
今年結構性成本削減也貢獻了約 3 億美元,主要得益於維護和供應鏈效率的最佳化。我們需要繼續安全地降低成本,以提高我們的競爭地位,並鞏固我們到 2027 年每桶原油利潤率位居前四分之一、每桶原油煉油成本位居第二四分之一的目標。
Within group central functions, our 2025 cost base needs to improve to reach top quartile. We are already in action when we saw an 8% reduction in '25 through initiatives such as reducing headcount in higher cost locations, leveraging strategic third-party partnerships, and simplifying processes and driving digital efficiencies throughout the businesses. We expect to see the contribution from these actions to increasingly show up in our 2026 results, and we are working to drive to top quartile on average across our functions.
在集團核心職能方面,我們 2025 年的成本基礎需要改善才能達到前四分之一的水準。我們已經開始採取行動,2025 年透過減少高成本地區員工人數、利用策略性第三方合作夥伴關係、簡化流程以及在整個業務中推動數位化效率等舉措,實現了 8% 的成本降低。我們預計這些舉措的貢獻將在 2026 年的業績中日益顯現,我們正努力使各職能部門的平均表現達到前四分之一。
Turning next to our target to strengthen the balance sheet, this is key to enabling us to manage and grow the business through the commodity cycle. We continue to target net debt to be in the range of $14 billion to $18 billion by the end of 2027 and have visibility to moving into that range with the expected closing of the Castrol transaction. In 2025, operating cash flow and divestment and other proceeds was $30.4 billion. I would note that this is after paying $1.2 billion towards the Gulf of America settlement liability accounted for in our working capital.
接下來,我們將著手加強資產負債表,這對於我們能夠在商品週期中管理和發展業務至關重要。我們仍將淨債務目標設定為 2027 年底達到 140 億美元至 180 億美元,隨著嘉實多交易的預期完成,我們有信心實現這一目標。2025 年,經營現金流、資產剝離等收益為 304 億美元。需要指出的是,這是在支付了 12 億美元用於償還美國灣漏油事故賠償金(已計入我們的營運資金)之後的結果。
Our uses of cash, including $1.2 billion to redeem hybrid bonds, came to $29.6 billion. So overall this led to an $800 million reduction in our net debt. As we look ahead, we are seeking to accelerate the strengthening of our balance sheet, not only to allow us to more easily tolerate commodity cycles, but also to drive higher free cash flow for our shareholders. We look beyond financing debt when considering our capital structure. We also consider financial obligations, including hybrid bonds, leases, and Gulf of America settlement liabilities. At the end of 2025, these financial obligations added up to around $58 billion.
我們的現金使用額(包括用於贖回混合債券的 12 億美元)為 296 億美元。因此,總體而言,這使我們的淨債務減少了 8 億美元。展望未來,我們將尋求加快加強資產負債表,不僅是為了讓我們更容易應對大宗商品週期波動,也是為了給股東帶來更高的自由現金流。我們在考慮資本結構時,除了融資債務之外,還會考慮其他因素。我們也會考慮財務義務,包括混合債券、租賃和美洲灣事故賠償責任。到 2025 年底,這些財務義務總計約為 580 億美元。
Looking ahead and as we consider sources and uses of cash, out of the $20 billion divestment program announced last February, we've received $5.3 billion in 2025. The remaining $15 billion is underpinned by the $6 billion anticipated proceeds from the Castrol transaction and a deep hopper of quality assets that we continuously high grade. In 2026, we expect this to result in another $3 billion to $4 billion of divestment proceeds. All proceeds in 2026 are expected to be heavily weighted to the second half of the year.
展望未來,當我們考慮資金來源和用途時,在去年二月宣布的 200 億美元撤資計畫中,我們將在 2025 年收到 53 億美元。剩餘的 150 億美元資金主要來自嘉實多交易預計將獲得的 60 億美元收益,以及我們持續進行高評級的大量優質資產。我們預計,到 2026 年,這將帶來另外 30 億至 40 億美元的資產剝離收益。預計 2026 年的所有收益將主要集中在下半年。
Turning now to uses of cash, and I'll start with dividends, our first financial priority. You can expect these to increase by at least 4% per year. Today, we announced a dividend per ordinary share of $0.0832. We of course continue to pay down the Gulf of America settlement liability through to the end of 2033, but the liability is largely settled by the end of 2032.
現在來說說現金的用途,首先是股息,這是我們首要的財務優先事項。預計這些指標每年至少增長 4%。今天,我們宣布派發每股普通股0.0832美元的股息。當然,我們將繼續償還美國灣漏油事故賠償責任,直到2033年底,但該責任將在2032年底前基本償清。
In 2026, our gross payment is around $1.6 billion and in 2027 around $1.2 billion. After adjusting for changes related to tax amounts, the net liability is expected to be around $4 billion in 2027. We also continue to manage leases, hybrids and finance debt to optimize finance costs. Leases give us flexibility in relation to assets we choose not to own directly.
2026 年,我們的總付款額約為 16 億美元;2027 年約為 12 億美元。經調整與稅收金額相關的變化後,預計 2027 年淨負債約為 40 億美元。我們也持續管理租賃、混合融資和債務融資,以優化融資成本。租賃讓我們在選擇不直接擁有資產方面擁有更大的靈活性。
With regard to hybrids under the S&P rules, we currently receive 50% equity treatment for the $12 billion issued during COVID in 2020. Within these rules, we can reduce this stack by up to 10% in any one year, up to a cumulative reduction of 25%. We intend to remain within these limits while of course continuing to manage maturities proactively.
根據標普規則,對於 2020 年 COVID-19 疫情期間發行的 120 億美元混合債券,我們目前可獲得 50% 的股權待遇。在這些規則的範圍內,我們可以在任何一年內將這個堆疊減少最多 10%,累計減少最多 25%。我們打算繼續遵守這些限制,當然,我們也會繼續積極主動管理到期債務。
Moving on to CapEx, we have exercised discipline in capital allocation, investing in only the highest returning opportunities across the portfolio and pacing investment more deliberately. We've tightened our 2026 CapEx range to a range of $13 billion to 13.5 billion, and that's at the low end of the range we previously guided through to 2027. Spending this year will be slightly weighted to the first-half.
接下來談談資本支出,我們在資本配置方面一直秉持嚴謹的態度,只投資於投資組合中回報最高的項目,並更加謹慎地控制投資節奏。我們將 2026 年資本支出範圍收窄至 130 億美元至 135 億美元,這已經是我們之前到 2027 年所預測範圍的下限了。今年的支出將略微集中在上半年。
All these actions, together with the Board's decision to suspend share buybacks and fully allocate excess cash to the balance sheet, are in service of optimizing finance costs and accelerating the improvement in free cash flow.
所有這些措施,連同董事會暫停股票回購並將剩餘現金全部分配到資產負債表的決定,都是為了優化財務成本和加快自由現金流的改善。
Let me now hand over to Gordon.
現在我把麥克風交給戈登。
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Thanks Kate, I'd like to spend a few minutes walking through the progress we've made in safely growing the upstream over the past year. 2025 was a strong year for project execution, as we started 7 major projects out of the 10 we expect to bring online between 2025 and 2027. Five of these were ahead of schedule. And we've now started up around 150,000 of the 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net peak production that we expect to have online by 2027. This includes projects such as GTA in Mauritania and Senegal, SIP in Trinidad and [Murloc] in the North Sea.
謝謝凱特,我想花幾分鐘時間回顧過去一年我們在安全發展上游的進展。 2025年是專案執行的強勁一年,我們啟動了10個主要專案中的7個,預計這些專案將在2025年至2027年間上線。其中五項提前完成。目前,我們已經啟動了約 15 萬桶油當量/天的淨峰值產量,預計到 2027 年,我們的淨峰值產量將達到 25 萬桶油當量/天。這包括毛里塔尼亞和塞內加爾的 GTA 計畫、特立尼達的 SIP 計畫以及北海的 [Murloc] 計畫。
Delivering major projects takes focus and drive. We've encountered and overcome some challenges in some of our projects along the way, and I'm extremely proud that according to the most recent IPA benchmarks, we're ranked best-in-class overall -- we're ranked best-in-class overall for our projects starting up and staying up.
完成重大專案需要專注和幹勁。一路走來,我們在一些專案中遇到了一些挑戰,並克服了這些挑戰。我非常自豪的是,根據最新的 IPA 基準測試,我們的整體排名是同類最佳——我們的專案在啟動和持續運行方面都獲得了同類最佳的排名。
Furthermore, of the wells that we drill, many as part of major projects, around three quarters are in the top or second quartile. As mentioned by Carol, based on provisional data, our operational emissions in 2025 were 37% less than in 2019, a reduction well in excess of our target of 20%.
此外,在我們鑽探的油井中(其中許多是大型專案的一部分),約有四分之三的油井處於前四分之一或第二四分之一的水平。正如卡羅爾所提到的,根據初步數據,我們 2025 年的營運排放量比 2019 年減少了 37%,這一減排幅度遠遠超過了我們 20% 的目標。
Our methane intensity, again based on provisional data, fell to 0.04%, thanks to improved operational performance, significantly below our 2025 target of 0.2%. You also heard from Carol that we had record plant reliability in 2025 of over 96%. We also had well reliability of almost 98%. We saw strong base delivery, decline management and turnaround execution, with standout examples including ACG in Azerbaijan and Argos in the Gulf of America. This helped to keep our moneys based decline comfortably within the 3% to 5% range.
根據初步數據,由於營運績效的提高,我們的甲烷排放強度降至 0.04%,遠低於我們 2025 年 0.2% 的目標。卡羅爾也告訴大家,到 2025 年,我們的工廠可靠性將達到創紀錄的 96% 以上。我們的井可靠性也接近 98%。我們看到了強勁的基礎交付、衰退管理和扭虧為盈的執行力,其中阿塞拜疆的 ACG 和美洲灣的 Argos 都是傑出的例子。這有助於將我們的資金損失控制在 3% 到 5% 的範圍內。
This level of operational delivery is a direct result of the years of investment we've made in world-class capability and cutting edge technology. This has been a key differentiator for us, and we're not standing still. We're expanding the use of dynamic digital twins, AI and automation across the business. This includes real-time reservoir, wells, and facilities monitoring and optimization. These have played a key role in helping to increase BP operated production, on average by around 2% every year for the last five years, while also protecting on average, around 4% more from going offline. The delivery of these elements enable us to beat our 2025 production plan.
這種營運交付水準是我們多年來在世界一流能力和尖端技術方面進行投資的直接結果。這已成為我們的關鍵優勢,我們不會止步不前。我們正在擴大動態數位孿生、人工智慧和自動化技術在整個業務中的應用。這包括對油藏、油井和設施進行即時監測和優化。這些措施在幫助提高 BP 營運的產量方面發揮了關鍵作用,在過去五年中,平均每年提高約 2%,同時平均每年也防止約 4% 的產量停產。這些要素的交付使我們能夠提前完成2025年的生產計畫。
Furthermore, 2026 production, excluding divestments is now expected to be around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, broadly flat compared to 2025. This is an increase compared to the outlook we gave you this time last year. We're also working hard to strengthen our resource base. 12 months ago, we set a target to achieve a 100% reserve replacement ratio by the end of 2027, or said another way that we'll book around the same amount of proven reserves that we've produced.
此外,2026 年的產量(不包括資產剝離)預計約為每天 230 萬桶油當量,與 2025 年相比基本持平。與去年同期我們給出的預測相比,這是一個成長。我們也在努力加強資源基礎。 12個月前,我們設定了2027年底實現100%儲量替代率的目標,或者換句話說,我們將實現已探明儲量與已生產儲量大致相同的目標。
We're making good progress towards that target. As a result of the strong operational delivery and project execution that I just described, in addition to some benefit from higher prices, we have increased our 2025 organic reserve replacement ratio to 90%. We have a high-quality pipeline of major projects due online between 2028 and 2030, including Kaskida and Tiber Guadalupe in the Gulf of America; Shah Deniz Compression in Azerbaijan; and Tangguh UCC in Indonesia.
我們正朝著這個目標穩步前進。由於我剛才描述的強有力的營運交付和專案執行,加上價格上漲帶來的一些好處,我們已將 2025 年有機儲備替代率提高到 90%。我們有一系列高品質的大型專案將於 2028 年至 2030 年間上線,包括美洲灣的 Kaskida 和 Tiber Guadalupe 專案;阿塞拜疆的 Shah Deniz 壓縮專案;以及印尼的 Tangguh UCC 專案。
These four projects alone are expected to add another 250,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day of higher margin net peak production. And I'm particularly proud of her exceptional year for exploration, with 12 discoveries in 2025, including in the Gulf of America, Namibia, and of course, Brazil.
光是這四個項目預計每天就能增加 25 萬桶油當量,實現更高利潤的淨峰值產量。我特別為她卓越的探勘成果感到自豪,2025 年她取得了 12 項發現,包括在美洲灣、納米比亞,當然還有巴西的發現。
People ask me, what's behind our exploration success. My response is that, it is a blend of a deeply experienced exploration team and the application of advanced technology. We have examples where the combination of seismic technology with high powered computing and advanced algorithms has enabled us to light up the subsurface by creating images with unprecedented clarity.
人們問我,我們勘探成功的背後是什麼。我的回答是,這是經驗豐富的勘探團隊與先進技術應用相結合的結果。我們已經有一些例子,將地震技術與高效能運算和先進演算法相結合,能夠以前所未有的清晰度創建影像,從而照亮地下世界。
Our capability and technology have also been important factors in being selected to help governments develop their discovered resources, such as in Kirkuk in Iraq and Karabagh in Azerbaijan. This combination of our exploration success and discovered resource access is enabling us to reduce, to reload our resource hopper. And others are also acknowledging the progress we've made to strengthen our resource base. When benchmark using wood map data, we now have the second longest remaining resource life of the majors.
我們的能力和技術也是我們被選中幫助各國政府開發已發現資源的重要因素,例如伊拉克的基爾庫克和亞塞拜然的卡拉巴赫。我們勘探的成功以及已發現的資源獲取途徑,使我們能夠減少資源消耗,重新補充我們的資源儲備。其他人也認可了我們在加強資源基礎方面取得的進展。以木材地圖資料為基準,我們現在擁有主要木材中第二長的剩餘資源壽命。
In summary, we believe that our deep resource base is a real competitive advantage. It creates what we call quality through choice. It provides the potential for long-term organic growth and combined with disciplined investment criteria, enables us to progress the most value accretive options with the highest returns. Along with their high-quality assets, outstanding capability and advanced technology, we believe this is distinctive and a key differentiator supporting the BP investment case.
總之,我們認為我們雄厚的資源基礎是一項真正的競爭優勢。它透過選擇創造了我們所說的品質。它為長期有機成長提供了潛力,再加上嚴格的投資標準,使我們能夠推進最具價值增值和最高回報的投資項目。憑藉其高品質的資產、卓越的能力和先進的技術,我們認為這是BP的獨特之處,也是支撐BP投資案例的關鍵差異化因素。
I'd like to finish by providing an update on the exciting Bumerangue discovery in Brazil, our largest find in the last 25 years. We're making good progress. The in-situ analysis is materially complete, and our initial estimate is that there is around 8 billion barrels of liquids in place, split roughly 50% oil and 50% condensate. As is normal at this stage, there is a wide range of uncertainty around this estimate.
最後,我想報告我們在巴西令人興奮的布梅朗格礦藏的發現,這是我們近 25 年來最大的發現。我們進展順利。現場分析已基本完成,我們的初步估計是,該地區約有 80 億桶液體儲量,其中石油約佔 50%,凝析油約佔 50%。現階段通常情況下,這項估計存在很大的不確定性。
We've appointed senior leadership and are currently working on design concepts, including the potential for an early production system. We're also putting plans in place for an appraisal program, which we expect to start around the end of the year. This will use the Transocean's deepwater Mykonos rig following the drilling of our Tupinamba exploration prospect in a neighboring block.
我們已經任命了高階領導層,目前正在研究設計理念,包括早期生產系統的可能性。我們也正在製定評估計劃,預計將於年底左右開始實施。在鄰近區塊完成 Tupinamba 勘探目標的鑽探後,我們將使用 Transocean 公司的深水 Mykonos 鑽井平台進行鑽探。
This will provide us with data from locations across the reservoir to enable us to describe the fluid characteristics and resource potential. As you can see, we're in action, with confidence and our excitement in this huge opportunity is growing.
這將為我們提供油藏各處的數據,使我們能夠描述流體特性和資源潛力。正如你所看到的,我們正在積極行動,充滿信心,我們對這個巨大機會的興奮之情也與日俱增。
With that, I'll hand back to Carol.
接下來,我將把麥克風交還給卡羅爾。
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Thanks Gordon, and yes, a lot of great progress in the upstream. And it was also a strong year for the downstream, having delivered a significant step up in performance. We continue to optimize our cost base safely with around $1.6 billion of structural cost reductions delivered to date. And customers delivered their highest underlying earnings since 2019, with all businesses growing year on year. And our approach to investments in our refineries and midstream has created the ability for us to consistently run the kit above 96% and capture that margin.
謝謝戈登,是的,上游方面取得了很大進展。對下游產業來說,這也是強勁的一年,業績有了顯著提升。我們持續安全地優化成本結構,迄今已實現約 16 億美元的結構性成本削減。客戶實現了自 2019 年以來最高的基礎收益,所有業務均實現了同比增長。我們對煉油廠和中游業務的投資方式,使我們能夠持續保持設備利用率在 96% 以上,並獲得相應的利潤。
And we're also progressing our business improvement plan at TA and the commercial integration of our BP Bioenergy acquisition is now complete. We're also in action to focus our portfolio on our leading integrated businesses, having announced the sale of Castrol; completed the sale of Netherlands retail; and we continue to progress the intended sale of our refinery, Gelsenkirchen and Austria Retail as well.
同時,我們在TA的業務改善計畫也在穩步推進,我們對BP生物能源的收購的商業整合現已完成。我們也積極採取行動,將業務重心放在領先的綜合業務上,此前我們已宣佈出售嘉實多;完成了荷蘭零售業務的出售;並且我們還在繼續推進擬出售的煉油廠、蓋爾森基興和奧地利零售業務。
So let me just close now before we turn to questions for the next 45 minutes or so. We've reflected today on where we've come from as a company and the really good progress we've made in 2025. And we know we need to accelerate delivery in every dimension of our reset strategy. And we're resolute on what our focus needs to be for BP. We need to build on a good year and operate well consistently, quarter in-quarter out.
那麼,在接下來的大約 45 分鐘裡,我們將進入提問環節,在此之前,我就先結束今天的演講了。今天,我們回顧了公司一路走來的歷程,以及我們在 2025 年取得的非常好的進展。我們知道,我們需要在重置戰略的各個方面加快執行速度。我們非常清楚BP應該把重點放在哪裡。我們需要鞏固去年的好成績,並保持每季持續良好的營運。
We need to accelerate the strengthening of the balance sheet, which includes taking the decision to suspend the buyback and delivering the $20 billion of the divestment program. Our discipline on capital allocation is key, and we must continue to simplify our portfolio. We've made progress in addressing that in 2025, and it will remain a central focus for us going forward. We've also made good progress on our cost base, and we're in action to take our businesses and functions to top quartile by the end of 2027.
我們需要加快加強資產負債表,包括決定暫停股票回購並實施 200 億美元的資產剝離計畫。資本配置的紀律至關重要,我們必須持續簡化投資組合。我們在解決 2025 年的這個問題上取得了進展,並且這將仍然是我們未來工作的重點。我們在成本控制方面也取得了良好進展,我們正在努力使我們的業務和職能在 2027 年底前達到前四分之一的水平。
And all of this must be in service of materially improving cash flow and returns and value for our shareholders. And as we look ahead, we have a portfolio of world class assets and the richest set of organic opportunities for growth that we've had in many years. The board and the leadership team are aligned around our goal to become a simpler, stronger, and more valuable company and in turn grow shareholder returns. We're in action. We do have more to do, and we can and will do better for our shareholders.
所有這些都必須服務於實際改善現金流、提高股東回報和價值。展望未來,我們擁有世界一流的資產組合,以及多年來最豐富的內生成長機會。董事會和領導團隊的目標一致,即成為一家更簡單、更強大、更有價值的公司,從而提高股東回報。我們正在行動。我們還有更多工作要做,我們也能夠為股東們做得更好。
With that, let's go to Q&A.
接下來,我們進入問答環節。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
(Event Instructions)
(活動須知)
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Michele Della Vigna - Analyst
Michele Della Vigna, Goldman Sachs. Thank you very much for the wealth of information provided today. I wanted to come back to the finance cost. I think it's very helpful to look at all of the different sources of debt and to lay out the $15 billion reduction. I was wondering what does it mean in terms of reduction in actually the finance costs by 2027? How much could we expect that to go down by then?
米歇爾·德拉·維尼亞,高盛。非常感謝您今天提供的豐富資訊。我想再談談融資成本。我認為,仔細研究所有不同的債務來源,並制定 150 億美元的減免計劃,是非常有幫助的。我想知道到 2027 年,實際的融資成本降低幅度會是多少?到那時,我們預計這個數字會下降多少?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, thank you for the question, Michele, and I understand, of course why you're asking that.
是的,謝謝你的提問,米歇爾,我當然明白你為什麼會問這個問題。
Look, what we've tried to do today is be utterly transparent on the totality of the financial obligations that we are managing, and I think it underlines the imperative to do something now to really strengthen our balance sheet and make a step change in the pace at which we do that in service of growing free cash flow. There are a couple of elements that it's worth just calling out. So the Deepwater Horizon obligation, that is a payment that we will make each year. This year it's $1.6 billion, next year it's $1.2 billion, and then it's materially complete by the end of 2032.
你看,我們今天努力做到的是,對我們正在管理的全部財務義務做到完全透明,我認為這凸顯了現在必須採取行動,真正加強我們的資產負債表,並加快我們為增加自由現金流而採取的行動的速度。有幾個方面值得特別指出。所以,對於「深水地平線」漏油事故的賠償義務,我們每年都要支付一筆款項。今年預計耗資 16 億美元,明年預計耗資 12 億美元,到 2032 年底基本完工。
And then we turn pretty much to hybrids and debt. We've got a net debt target of $14 billion to $18 billion. That is our first priority. And we are determined to deliver that. We've got a line of sight to it now. And we will of course be stepping through that as we go through the year and we get proceeds in.
然後我們就基本上轉向混合型金融和債務融資了。我們的淨債務目標為 140 億美元至 180 億美元。這是我們的首要任務。我們決心實現這一目標。我們現在已經能看到它了。當然,我們會在這一年中逐步完成這些步驟,並最終獲得收益。
I'm very cognizant of the (inaudible) 25% Having said all of that. I think it's incumbent on us as we have excess cash to make the very best economic decisions in terms of how we deploy that. You can do the rule of thumb based on what you can see our current financing costs are today to have a sense of what a $15 billion total reduction could look like by 2027. The actual reduction will obviously depend on the choices that we make as we deploy that excess cash, but this is ultimately about materially changing the total financial obligations we are servicing and as a consequence drive higher free cash flow and position us strongly to have the best opportunity to develop the set of organic options that we have ahead of us which are unique.
我非常清楚那(聽不清楚)25%。說了這麼多。我認為,既然我們手頭上有多餘的現金,我們就有責任在如何運用這些現金方面做出最佳的經濟決策。您可以根據我們目前的融資成本,運用經驗法則估算到 2027 年總共減少 150 億美元會是什麼樣子。實際的減少幅度顯然取決於我們如何運用多餘的現金,但這最終是為了實質性地改變我們正在履行的全部財務義務,從而推動更高的自由現金流,並使我們處於有利地位,以便擁有最佳機會來開發我們面前一系列獨特的有機選擇。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Michele, we'll go to Martijn Rats.
謝謝你,米歇爾,我們會去馬丁拉茨餐廳。
Martijn Rats - Analyst
Martijn Rats - Analyst
Yeah, hi, hello, it's Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley. I wanted to ask a question about the dividend. The guidance for growth and dividend per share is still 4%-plus, but when the buyback was still there, you could say well like a good couple of points of that actually does come from the share reduction -- share count reduction from the buyback.
是的,嗨,你好,我是摩根士丹利的 Martijn Rats。我想問一個關於股息的問題。成長和每股股息的預期仍然是 4% 以上,但當股票回購還在進行時,可以說其中相當一部分增長實際上來自股份減少——股票回購導致的股份數量減少。
So in many ways there is a little bit of an underlying upgrade in the outlook for the total dividend burden of the company, and I was wondering if there's a sort of a -- the fact that you remove the buyback but cap the dividend growth, is there also a signal in there that there is confidence in the long run, and is that something like -- that I'm interpreting correctly here as in like because you could also have said look, most of the dividend growth actually just come from the buyback share count reduction, but despite that we are keeping the dividend growth on track.
因此,從許多方面來看,公司整體股利負擔的前景略有改善。我想知道,取消股票回購但限制股利成長,這是否也顯示公司對長期發展充滿信心?我的理解是否正確?因為您也可以說,雖然大部分股息成長實際上來自股票回購數量的減少,但儘管如此,我們仍然保持了股息成長的預期。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, I mean, mathematically you could reach the conclusion you've outlined, Martijn. I completely agree with you. I think it's really important we have a progressive dividend, and we've been really clear only a year ago that that's a 4% increase per annum. And the board is comfortable. We want to retain that. That's the first priority in our financial frame. Beyond that, it's about building back the balance sheet and then investing for growth.
是的,我的意思是,從數學角度來說,你可以得出你所描述的結論,馬丁。我完全同意你的觀點。我認為實施遞增式股息非常重要,而且就在一年前,我們已經明確表示,股息每年增長 4%。而且滑板很舒服。我們希望保留這一點。這是我們財務計劃中的首要任務。除此之外,還要重建資產負債表,然後進行投資以實現成長。
Yes, the flywheel for share count reduction has changed with the decision around the suspension of the buyback, but I think one of the things that Meg and I will need to step through when she comes in in April is contemplate what sort of balance sheet we want that is in support of the growth options that we have ahead of us, and we'll need to step through that.
是的,隨著暫停股票回購的決定,減少股份數量的飛輪效應發生了變化,但我認為,梅格四月份上任後,我和她需要解決的問題之一是,我們想要什麼樣的資產負債表來支持我們未來的成長選擇,我們需要逐步解決這個問題。
But for now, the financial frame is clear. The only thing we are altering is, we are suspending the buybacks and putting all of that excess cash against strengthening our balance sheet. The dividend, the 4% growth per annum, is exactly what we want to maintain right now.
但就目前而言,財務框架是明確的。我們唯一改變的是,我們將暫停股票回購,並將所有多餘的現金用於加強我們的資產負債表。目前,我們正努力維持股息和每年 4% 的成長。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
I'm going to come over to this side Chris Kuplent, please.
克里斯·庫普倫特,請到這邊來。
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Chris Kuplent, Bank of America. Got another one for you, Kate. You showed the performance in 2025 in most respects was well ahead of targets you laid out 12 months ago. So I wonder whether you could talk us through the decision-making tree, why in the end you decided to suspend the buyback?
克里斯‧庫普倫特,美國銀行。凱特,我還有一首歌要給你。你們在大多數方面都展現出了 2025 年的業績,遠遠超過了 12 個月前所訂定的目標。所以我想知道您能否為我們講解一下決策過程,以及最終為什麼決定暫停股票回購?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
I don't know that it's as complicated as a tree actually, Chris. I think this is just strong financial discipline. Over the last year, we've created a materially different hopper of options in terms of future earnings growth. And now the right decision to take is to strengthen our balance sheet to give us the foundation from which we will access that. And it will also create a degree of choice over how much of that we continue to hold as working interests. You know that we have significant growth opportunities in the Paleogene in Brazil. There's others in Namibia.
克里斯,我並不認為它真的像樹那麼複雜。我認為這只是嚴格的財務紀律。過去一年,我們在未來的獲利成長方面創造了截然不同的選擇空間。現在,我們應該做的正確決定是加強資產負債表,為我們日後獲得這些資源奠定基礎。它還將使我們對繼續持有多少股份作為工作權益擁有一定程度的選擇權。您知道我們在巴西古近紀地層中擁有巨大的成長機會。納米比亞還有其他的。
We currently hold Paleogene in Brazil 100%, and at some point we can make choices around how much we may want to dilute. The strength of the balance sheet that we have will allow us to make choices that are positioned to enable us to capture maximum shareholder value. So I don't think it's as complicated as the decision tree on the balance sheet. This is just about the right decision now to take an action that materially increases the pace at which we strengthen our balance sheet and gives us that foundation for the future.
我們目前 100% 持有巴西古近紀的股份,將來我們可以決定要稀釋多少股份。我們穩健的資產負債表將使我們能夠做出有利於股東價值最大化的選擇。所以我覺得它沒有資產負債表上的決策樹那麼複雜。現在採取這項行動,實際加快我們加強資產負債表的速度,為未來奠定基礎,正是適當的決定。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Okay, I'll stay on this side, Josh.
好的,喬希,我就待在這邊。
Joshua Stone - Analyst
Joshua Stone - Analyst
Thank you. Hi, it's Josh Stone here from UBS. I'm afraid I'm going to come back to the use of cash, if that's okay. I think you've taken a very brave decision to suspend the buyback, and I think ultimately the right decision for the reasons you've laid out.
謝謝。大家好,我是瑞銀集團的Josh Stone。恐怕我還是得重新使用現金了,可以嗎?我認為你暫停股票回購的決定非常勇敢,我認為,從你闡述的理由來看,這最終是正確的決定。
One thing that's not very clear though is where, at what point would you feel more comfortable to reinstate a buyback program? Is it a case of having to wait for a new CEO to sort of decide that leverage level? Do you have some views yourself of what at what point the leverage level would be appropriate for BP to be able to buy back its own stock? Thanks.
但有一點不太清楚,那就是在什麼情況下,你會更願意恢復回購計畫?是否需要等待新任執行長來決定槓桿水平?您自己對BP在什麼槓桿水平下回購自身股票比較合適有什麼看法?謝謝。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Thanks Josh. I'm sure at some point someone's going to ask a question of Carol and Gordon here on the panel as well. When will we reinstate? You can see from the sort of pro forma impact of the remaining divestment proceeds, what we think that the order of magnitude could be as we deliver the remaining $20 billion over the next couple of years. So I think there's an opportunity to deliver a materially stronger balance sheet. I'm probably going to repeat myself a couple of times this afternoon, so please bear with me.
謝謝你,喬希。我相信遲早會有人向卡羅爾和戈登兩位嘉賓提問。我們何時才能恢復?從剩餘撤資收益的預估影響可以看出,我們認為在未來幾年內交付剩餘的 200 億美元時,其規模可能會有多大。所以我認為有機會實現資產負債表的顯著改善。今天下午我可能要重複幾次同樣的話,請大家多多包涵。
I think it's really important that Meg and I have the space with Gordon and the team to go through the hopper of options that we've got in terms of our growth looking ahead. We've got an incredibly powerful set of organic growth that we've created through the drill bit, so it's more value accretive than going and buying barrels, and we need to consider those and think about how they rank and which ones we invest in what order of priority.
我認為,對我和梅格來說,與戈登和團隊一起探討我們未來發展的各種選擇,這一點非常重要。我們已經透過鑽探創造了一系列非常強大的有機成長,這比直接購買原油更有價值,我們需要考慮這些成長,思考它們的排名以及我們按什麼優先順序投資哪些原油。
Once we're clear on that, then I think we can decide what sort of balance sheet we need to support that. And I think it's important that we have the time and space to do that. For now, what we're focused on is delivering the net debt target, the $14 billion to $18 billion and then, and once we have delivered that, then I think we'll be in a position to update you, but I'm not going to suggest when that may or may not occur right now. We've got plenty of things to step through.
一旦我們明確了這一點,我認為我們可以決定我們需要什麼樣的資產負債表來支撐這一點。我認為,我們必須有時間和空間去做這件事,這一點很重要。目前,我們的重點是實現淨債務目標,即 140 億美元至 180 億美元。一旦實現這一目標,我認為我們就能向大家報告最新情況,但我現在不會透露具體時間。我們有很多事情需要一步一步來。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Go back over this side Doug.
道格,回到這邊去。
Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst
Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst
Thank you. I think folks have flogged the financial question, Kate, a bit. So I will turn to Gordon if I may. Gordon, you gave a few hints on Bumerangue, obviously. I wonder if I could ask you, just to give us a few more hints. The, recoverable number is pretty critical to the outlook for Bumerangue. You've talked about high-quality rock. Rule of thumb, I would say 40%. Could you give us an idea of what you're thinking and what working interests would you be prepared to go forward with an early production system?
謝謝。凱特,我覺得大家已經把財務問題討論得有點過頭了。如果可以的話,我想請戈登幫忙。戈登,你顯然已經給了《迴旋鏢》這部劇了一些提示。我可以問您一個問題嗎?希望能再給我們一些提示。可回收數字對 Bumerangue 的前景至關重要。你談到了優質岩石。根據經驗法則,我認為是 40%。您能否簡要介紹一下您的想法,以及您願意在哪些方面投入精力來推進早期生產系統的開發?
I'm sorry, it's Doug Leggate from Wolfe.
抱歉,我是來自沃爾夫的道格·萊格特。
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, hi, Doug, thanks for the question. Let me take the equity question first. We're in, it's early days and we're in no rush to take a partner. When we do take a partner, it'll be the right partner for value and the right partner who can bring something to the table to help us develop this field.
嗨,道格,謝謝你的提問。我先來回答公平性問題。我們已經參與其中,現在還處於早期階段,我們並不急於尋找合作夥伴。當我們選擇合作夥伴時,我們會選擇能夠帶來價值的合作夥伴,以及能夠幫助我們發展這個領域的合作夥伴。
We're not putting out a recoverable number right now, because I'd like to understand a bit more across the reservoir, what the variability is across the reservoir, if nothing else, before we put any more numbers. I remain excited by it. There's nothing I see that has diminished my excitement about this field at 100%, 8 billion barrels in good terms to develop on.
我們現在不會公佈可恢復的數字,因為我想先更多地了解整個水庫的情況,了解整個水庫的變異性,至少在公佈更多數字之前是這樣。我依然對此感到興奮。我沒有看到任何事能減少我對這個領域的熱情,100% 的熱情都體現在在這裡,這裡有 80 億桶的優質儲量可供開發。
So we're going to do the appraisal program early next year, that will enable us to lock down a development concept at that point in time. But just as a reminder of what we did put out there last year that should take you a long way to figure things out, Doug would be 1,000 meters of hydrocarbon column, 900 condensate, 100 oil. And we did see the gradient across the across the rock was consistent, which would tell you it's well connected in the vertical sense. And we told you it's 300 kilometers square.
因此,我們將在明年初開展評估計劃,屆時我們將能夠確定開發方案。但為了提醒大家我們去年發布的內容,這應該可以幫助你們弄清楚很多事情,Doug 指的是 1000 公尺的烴柱,900 公尺的凝析油,100 公尺的原油。我們還觀察到岩石上的坡度是一致的,這說明它在垂直方向上連接良好。我們之前說過,它的面積是300平方公里。
So there's a reasonable amount of data out there and there's reasonable analogs out there I would say, but we're not going to put a recoverable number out until we get a little -- we reduce that uncertainty range down to something that we're more comfortable with.
所以,目前已經有一些相當數量的數據,也有一些合理的類比,但我認為,在我們把不確定性範圍縮小到我們更放心的程度之前,我們不會公佈一個可恢復的數字。
Oh well, it could be a wide range, I'm comfortable for the moment at 100, we'll find the right partner and we'll come down, but it's material for our company and it really is and the terms are good -- so we'll retain a very significant proportion of this field.
哦,好吧,價格可能會有很大的波動,目前我對 100 比較滿意,我們會找到合適的合作夥伴,然後降下來,但這對我們公司來說是重要的,而且條款也很好——所以我們將保留這個領域相當大的份額。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Doug. Lydia.
謝謝你,道格。莉迪亞。
Lydia Rainforth - Analyst
Lydia Rainforth - Analyst
Thanks, it's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. I'm going to come back to capital discipline. What's different this time? And we've talked -- the board have talked about needing more rigor, more diligence. Kate, you referenced that there have been writedowns and impairments, and you're all very compelling up there. There's lots of opportunities, but how do you -- has anything changed in that capital allocation process? What's different? How does investors trust that you're going to make the right decisions going forward?
謝謝,我是巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞‧雷恩福斯。我接下來要談談資本紀律。這次有什麼不同?我們已經討論過——董事會也討論過需要更加嚴格、更加盡職盡責。凱特,你曾提到資產減記和資產減損,你們在上面的發言都很有說服力。機會很多,但是-資本配置過程是否有任何變化?有什麼不同?投資人如何相信你未來會做出正確的決策?
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
I think that -- let me start on that and see whether you want to jump in Kate.
我想——讓我先從這方面入手,看看凱特你是否願意加入。
So there has been a real cultural shift in cost and discipline in BP, and I think you'll have seen that from the results from 2025 in terms of the progress around cost reductions. I think also capital productivity and Gordon can give some great examples around that productivity, efficiency gains that we're seeing on the production side.
因此,BP在成本和紀律方面發生了真正的文化轉變,我認為從2025年的成本削減進度結果中,您已經看到了這一點。我認為資本生產力也是一個重要方面,戈登可以舉出一些很好的例子,說明我們在生產方面看到的生產力和效率提升。
I think we know that every dollar has to compete within the portfolio. We're very much focused on that, we're only going to be investing in the very best of opportunities. It's what we are holding ourselves to account on. So everything needs to compete and that's why we made some very difficult portfolio decisions last year and we'll continue to review the portfolio and make those right commercial decisions going forward.
我認為我們都知道,投資組合中的每一美元都必須參與競爭。我們非常注重這一點,我們只會投資於最好的投資機會。這是我們對自己負責的標準。所以所有產品都需要競爭,這就是為什麼我們去年做出了一些非常艱難的投資組合決策,我們將繼續審查投資組合,並在未來做出正確的商業決策。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
I guess the only other thing, I think I absolutely agree with you, Carol. As a leadership team, we know how important this is. It's got a huge degree of focus and we know we need to get this right. You've seen a significant structural shift from us in terms of strategy. We know that we went too far, too fast a number of years ago.
我想還有一點,我完全同意你的看法,卡蘿。身為領導團隊,我們深知這一點的重要性。它需要高度集中精力,我們知道必須把這件事做好。你們已經看到我們在戰略方面發生了重大的結構性轉變。我們知道幾年前我們走得太遠、太快了。
But as we take investment decisions today, we are focused very hard on interrogating the level of confidence that we've got on the returns, testing hard the downside risk as we take every single investment decision. And I think, in time that will show up with with less impairments. Of course you're always going to have impairments that are driven by environment around you. I hold those slightly differently to impairments that you could argue are a consequence of capital allocation.
但如今我們在做出投資決策時,會非常認真地審視我們對回報的信心程度,並在做出每項投資決策時都嚴格測試下行風險。我認為,隨著時間的推移,這種情況會逐漸好轉,障礙也會減少。當然,你總是會受到周遭環境的影響,進而產生一些不利影響。我認為這些與你可能認為是資本配置結果的減損略有不同。
But the impairments that we've taken in 4Q are a direct consequence of a deliberate decision to tighten the capital that we're deploying and the pace at which we're deploying it to maximize returns and shareholder value in terms of cash flow.
但我們在第四季提列的減損損失,是我們有意收緊資本部署和部署速度,以最大限度地提高現金流回報和股東價值的直接結果。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Gordon, do you want to talk capital efficiency?
戈登,你想談談資本效率嗎?
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, just a plug for the teams out there, doing it every day. I mean some tremendous real examples of capital productivity in Azerbaijan, and ECG Atlantis for drilling these long undulating, horizontal wells with geo steering. So a significant reduction in dollars per foot of rock contacted in BPX in the Lower 48 business, 20% improvement in completion time, 9% improvement in drilling time.
是的,這算是給那些每天都在為此努力的隊伍們打個招呼吧。我的意思是,阿塞拜疆有一些非常真實的資本生產力實例,而 ECG Atlantis 公司利用地質導向技術鑽探了這些長而起伏的水平井。因此,BPX 在美國本土 48 州的業務中,每英尺岩石接觸成本大幅降低,完井時間縮短了 20%,鑽井時間縮短了 9%。
So in the Lower 48, we can unlock the same amount of resources in a year using 8 rigs that used to take us 10 rigs. So that's real capital productivity coming through, which means there's less capital required to hit our targets, means we can allocate capital elsewhere. So the capital productivity drive that we've been on for a number of years is starting to come through to the bottom line in terms of activity.
因此,在美國本土48州,我們用8台鑽機一年就能開採出以前需要10台鑽機才能開採出的相同數量的資源。所以,這才是真正的資本生產力,這意味著實現目標所需的資本更少,這意味著我們可以將資本分配到其他地方。因此,我們多年來一直推行的資本生產力提升計劃,開始在實際經營活動中體現。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thank you. I'm going to go to the phone and I'm going to go to this side of the room, Paul Cheng at Scotia. Paul, can you hear us?
謝謝。我要去接電話,然後到房間這邊去,我是 Scotia 的 Paul Cheng。保羅,你聽得到我們說話嗎?
Paul Y. Cheng - Analyst
Paul Y. Cheng - Analyst
Hi, good morning or good afternoon in your time. Thank you.
您好,早安/下午好。謝謝。
If I could [k] on the $5.5 billion to $6.5 billion on the cost reduction target increase, how much is that relate to the sale of the cash flow interest? And also, when you look at, say cumulatively you're talking about $2.8 billion of the saving. Can you break down between portfolio impact and the actual cost saving? Thank you.
如果我能[k]關於成本削減目標增加的55億至65億美元,其中有多少與現金流權益的出售有關?而且,累計來看,節省的金額高達 28 億美元。能否詳細分析投資組合的影響和實際的成本節約?謝謝。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, hi Paul, thank you for your question. In terms of the change in the target, we've added $1.5 billion onto the $4 billion to $5 billion just to reflect the transaction on Castrol, so hopefully that's fairly straightforward. With regard to the $2.8 billion that we've delivered to date rather.
嗨,保羅,謝謝你的提問。至於目標的變化,我們在 40 億至 50 億美元的基礎上增加了 15 億美元,只是為了反映嘉實多的交易,所以希望這部分比較簡單明了。更確切地說,是指我們迄今已交付的28億美元。
You may remember when we set this target out there, we talked about probably around half of the savings coming from our supply chain and our third-party optimization. That's exactly the analysis that I've looked at in terms of that 2.8%. Half of it has come from supply chain and third-party. And then of the remaining half, it's pretty evenly split actually between organizational optimization and portfolio. So that's the way to hold the 2.8% delivery so far.
您可能還記得,當我們設定這個目標時,我們談到大約一半的節省將來自我們的供應鏈和第三方優化。這正是我針對那 2.8% 所進行的分析。其中一半來自供應鏈和第三方。剩下的一半,實際上在組織優化和投資組合優化之間分配得相當平均。所以這就是目前維持2.8%交割率的方法。
Operator
Operator
Thanks Paul. Thank you. We'll go this side. Alex?
謝謝保羅。謝謝。我們走這邊。亞歷克斯?
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Alejandro Vigil - Analyst
Hello. Thank you, Alejandro Vigil from Santander. My question is about the remaining divestments you have until the end of '27, which are the priorities in terms of assets you want to sell in terms of the sectors, no probably more on the downstream or you are counting on the farm down of some of the discoveries in '25 for this target -- you can elaborate on that, thank you.
你好。感謝來自桑坦德的亞歷杭德羅·維吉爾。我的問題是關於您在 2027 年底之前剩餘的資產剝離計劃,就您想出售的資產而言,在行業方面有哪些優先事項?或許您更傾向於下游業務,還是指望 2025 年的一些發現能夠實現這一目標?您可以詳細說明一下,謝謝。
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
So when we look at the portfolio, I mean, we're very much looking at it with regard to the best returns for BP. Where could others see more value in certain assets than we do, and so we're looking at that as well. So we're looking across the whole portfolio across upstream and downstream and also into the low carbon business.
所以當我們審視投資組合時,我的意思是,我們主要關注的是BP的最佳回報。其他人可能在某些資產方面看到比我們更大的價值,所以我們也在研究這一點。因此,我們正在審視整個投資組合,包括上游和下游業務,以及低碳業務。
At the moment we do have under process the Gelsenkirchen refinery, we're looking at Austria Retail. As we've also got interested parties for Lightsource BP, so that will also be an area that we're looking at. And there are certain areas that we'll consider whether we farm down on them. I don't think there's a contingent decision, we don't need to, it's a question of what's the right decision for BP? For example, in our position in the Paleogene.
目前我們正在推進蓋爾森基興煉油廠項目,我們正在關注奧地利零售市場。由於我們也已經找到了對 Lightsource BP 感興趣的各方,所以這也將是我們正在關注的領域。我們會考慮是否在某些地區進行小規模耕作。我不認為有任何不確定因素,我們也不需要,問題在於對BP來說什麼是正確的決定?例如,就我們目前所處的古近紀時期而言。
So we're looking at each specific piece in the portfolio in terms of its value add to BP from a strategic perspective, the value for us, the value for our shareholders, and then we're weighing it up on that basis. Did I miss any, Kate?
因此,我們正在從策略角度審視投資組合中的每一項具體資產,看它能為 BP 帶來多少價值,對我們、對我們的股東來說有多大價值,然後我們以此為基礎進行權衡。凱特,我漏掉了什麼嗎?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
No, I mean we'll update you as we go. We've got a really good hopper in terms of depth and breadth of quality, on assets, so we have plenty of choice and we aren't in a rush. You can see we've said for this year, [$3 billion to $4 billion] on top of Castrol. That's a typical level of just ongoing high grading of our portfolio of assets. We won't guard in advance where that's likely to come from. We will make those value-based decisions as we step through them.
不,我的意思是我們隨時會向您報告最新進展。我們擁有大量優質且深度充足的資產儲備,因此我們有很多選擇,並不著急。您可以看到,我們預計今年除了嘉實多之外,還將增加 30 億至 40 億美元。這是我們持續對資產組合進行高評級的典型做法。我們不會提前防範它可能來自哪裡。我們將逐步做出基於價值觀的決策。
Operator
Operator
Okay, thank you. One more question, yes.
好的,謝謝。還有一個問題,好的。
Mark Wilson - Analyst
Mark Wilson - Analyst
Thank you. Hello, it's Mark Wilson from Jefferies. It's a really interesting setup because by 2027 when you've got your balance sheet down, you should have a concept development for Bumerangue. So Bumerangue clearly looms large in your future. I'd like to ask, firstly, does this just outweigh all the others? You've got 12 other -- 12 total exploration discoveries, so just give us a pecking order there.
謝謝。您好,我是傑富瑞的馬克威爾森。這是一個非常有趣的安排,因為到 2027 年,當你的資產負債表理順之後,你應該就能對 Bumerangue 進行概念開發了。所以,Bumerangue 顯然會在你的未來扮演重要角色。首先我想問的是,這件事是否比其他所有事情都更重要?你們還有其他 12 項——總共 12 項勘探發現,所以請給我們一個排序。
And early '27 comes up very quickly, are you telling us you would be happy to appraise this through '27 at 100% working interest? Thank you.
2027 年初很快就到了,您的意思是您願意以 100% 的工作權益來評估到 2027 年的收益嗎?謝謝。
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Let me just comment on the quality of our hopper. If you, look at the Woodmark benchmarking, they're using -- they're not using our numbers, using their methodology, they give us 23 years of production at the current production level, that's the longevity we've created in the company through accessing -- discovered undeveloped barrels like Karabagh, like Kirkuk, as well as through the drill bit with Namibia, with what we've done in Egypt, what we've done in Trinidad, and what we've done in Bumerangue.
我想就我們料斗的品質發表一下看法。如果你看看伍德馬克基準測試,他們使用的是——他們沒有使用我們的數據,而是使用他們自己的方法,他們給出的結果是,以目前的產量水平,我們可以生產 23 年。這是我們透過開發卡拉巴赫、基爾庫克等未開發的油田,以及在納米比亞的鑽探、我們在埃及、特立尼達和布梅蘭格所做的工作,為公司創造的持久性。
So we have a very rich hopper of opportunities. So I won't give you a rank order, but clearly Bumerangue has the potential to be very material for our company, and Brazil is a country we know well. We've operated there for many years in different types of businesses there. Namibia is very exciting, of course, the discoveries are under the Azul brand, we've drilled three wells there -- three exploration wells in Block 85, and two discoveries, two nice discoveries, liquids, good quality rock, good quality fluids. So I would expect them to come to the fore, rather quickly, and then we have an ongoing program in Trinidad which we like as well. So there have been a number of discoveries in Trinidad that will push close to the front of the queue, I think.
所以我們擁有非常豐富的機會。所以我不會給出排名,但很明顯,Bumerangue 有可能對我們公司產生非常重要的影響,而巴西是我們非常了解的國家。我們在那裡經營多年,涉足各種類型的業務。當然,納米比亞的情況非常令人興奮,這些發現都屬於 Azul 品牌,我們在那裡鑽了三口井——85 號區塊的三口勘探井和兩口發現井,兩口不錯的發現井,有液體,優質岩石,優質流體。因此,我預計他們很快就會脫穎而出,而且我們在特立尼達也有一個我們很喜歡的持續項目。我認為,特立尼達島的一些發現將會排在第一位。
And then of course in Azerbaijan we've got Karabagh, which is discovered and developed, that we also are working hard on to make that into an economic investment. So I wouldn't put any rank order on them. They will all compete on the day based on their economics. They won't all get funded. For sure, and we'll get back to quality through choice, as I mentioned earlier. Your question about would we go through the full appraisal phase as 100% BP? We could. If we have a partner before then that would add value to BP, then of course we would take a partner. So I'm not 100% committing to it, but we're -- as I mentioned earlier, we're in no rush to take a partner. It has to be for value here.
當然,在阿塞拜疆,我們還有卡拉巴赫,這是一個已經發現和開發的地區,我們也正在努力將其發展成為一項經濟投資。所以我不會給他們排名。他們將根據各自的經濟實力在比賽當天展開競爭。並非所有項目都能獲得資助。當然,正如我之前提到的,我們會透過選擇來回歸品質。您問的是,我們是否會以 100% BP 完成整個評估階段?我們可以。如果在此之前我們已經找到了能夠為 BP 增加價值的合作夥伴,那麼我們當然會接受合作夥伴。所以,我還沒有百分之百確定,但是──正如我之前提到的──我們並不急於尋找合夥人。這裡必須考慮價值。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Mark, for your question, we'll go over to this side, Biraj.
謝謝馬克提出的問題,我們這邊請比拉傑過來。
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Biraj Borkhataria - Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my question. Biraj Borkhataria, RBC.
您好,感謝您回答我的問題。Biraj Borkhataria,RBC。
One of the things I was struggling with in the morning was reconciling the net debt target which was unchanged with the buyback cut. You're obviously cutting CapEx as well, you're cutting OpEx as well, so just trying to understand the moving parts there. I know you're going to potentially redeem some of the hybrids, so that will put upward pressure on that number, but a couple of other moving pieces.
我早上遇到的一個難題是,如何解釋淨債務目標在股票回購削減的情況下保持不變。顯然,你們也在削減資本支出,也在削減營運支出,所以我只是想了解其中的運作機制。我知道你們可能會贖回一些混合型車輛,這將給這個數字帶來上行壓力,但還有其他一些變數。
Has your view on the ability to sell Lightsource changed, because there's not -- I don't know how much equity value is there, but there's obviously a lot of debt associated with that.
您對出售 Lightsource 的能力有何看法?因為——我不知道它有多少股權價值,但顯然它背負著很多債務。
And secondly, could you just rationalize why you did a partial sell-down for Castrol rather than the whole thing, which I think was part of the original plan. Thank you.
其次,您能否解釋為什麼您只對嘉實多進行部分出售,而不是全部出售?我認為全部出售原本是計劃的一部分。謝謝。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Is that one question or three? That's alright, I'll lay you off by Biraj.
這是一個問題還是三個問題?沒關係,我會讓比拉傑解僱你。
So I think your first -- maybe it was an observation as opposed to a question which is the net debt target hasn't changed. No, it hasn't -- I'd like to deliver the target and then we'll see. I'll just take the opportunity while I'm talking about that target again just to make it clear that is not an automatic trigger for us to reinstate the buyback. We need to take a holistic view of the balance sheet. We need to set ourselves up for the growth that we've got, and I think it's appropriate that we think about that very carefully before we start talking about it.
所以我認為你的第一個觀點——也許只是一個觀察,而不是一個問題——那就是淨債務目標並沒有改變。不,還沒有——我想先完成目標,然後再看情況。我再次提到這個目標,就藉此機會澄清一下,這並不代表我們會自動恢復回購計畫。我們需要對資產負債表進行全面分析。我們需要為我們所取得的成長做好準備,我認為在開始討論這個問題之前,我們應該認真思考這個問題。
Having said that, of course we understand the share buyback is a tool for returning excess cash to shareholders, and we do need to think hard about the balance between investing for growth and returning to shareholders. For now, the imperative is strengthening that balance sheet and we're utterly clear on that. A couple of things that also came through on some of the earlier questions in the room were around -- is the change in buyback something around confidence? There's something that I heard earlier on in the room and you're asking a question around confidence in Lightsource, but I think one of the things that's important to iterate right now is you can see from the results we've printed today that actually our underlying performance is incredibly strong.
話雖如此,我們當然明白股票回購是向股東返還多餘現金的一種手段,我們也需要認真思考投資成長和回報股東之間的平衡。眼下,當務之急是加強資產負債表,這一點我們非常清楚。先前在房間裡提出的一些問題也提到了幾點——回購政策的變化是否與信心有關?我之前在房間裡聽到了一些關於 Lightsource 信心的問題,但我認為現在需要反覆強調的一點是,從我們今天列印的結果可以看出,我們底層的性能實際上非常強勁。
So this is not a lack of confidence. If anything, I'm more confident in the delivery against our plan than I was a year ago when I stood up here. This is around creating the right strength. And on on Lightsource, I think Carol mentioned it just a couple of moments ago, we've got a number of interested parties who are looking very hard at Lightsource and we're working through that. And of course we'll only transact for value, but right now we're moving through that process, but there's no need to rush.
所以這不是缺乏自信。如果有什麼改變的話,那就是我現在對我們計畫的執行更有信心了,比一年前我站在這裡的時候更有信心。這關乎如何打造合適的實力。關於 Lightsource,我想 Carol 剛才也提到了,有很多有興趣的各方正在認真研究 Lightsource,我們正在努力解決這個問題。當然,我們只會進行有價值交易,但現在我們正在經歷這個過程,但沒有必要著急。
And then on Castrol, we took our time to completely evaluate what a transaction around Castrol could look like. It's a great asset, it's a great business with a real future ahead of it in terms of earnings growth. And we came to the conclusion that the transaction that we signed with Stone Peak just before Christmas was the right transaction to do. It is a good value decision, a good value transaction, EV of $10.1 billion. And it gives us good multiples, I think 8.6 times EV EBITDA, which is at least as good as, if not better than other precedent transactions.
然後,對於嘉實多,我們花時間全面評估了圍繞嘉實多的交易可能會是什麼樣子。這是一項非常有價值的資產,也是一家前景廣闊、獲利成長潛力巨大的優秀企業。我們最終得出結論,我們在聖誕節前與 Stone Peak 簽署的交易是正確的交易。這是一項物有所值的決策,一筆物有所值的交易,企業價值達 101 億美元。而且它為我們帶來了不錯的倍數,我認為是 8.6 倍 EV EBITDA,這至少與其他先例交易一樣好,甚至更好。
And on top of that, the retention of the 35% gives us the opportunity to share in the future upside. So I think it's a good transaction for us and for shareholders, and it materially de-risks that $6 billion against our balance sheet, which is really important.
此外,保留 35% 的股份讓我們有機會分享未來的收益。所以我認為這筆交易對我們和股東來說都是一筆不錯的交易,它大大降低了我們資產負債表上 60 億美元的風險,這非常重要。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks Biraj, we'll stay on this side, Irene?
謝謝你,比拉傑,我們會待在這邊,艾琳?
Irene Himona - Equity Analyst
Irene Himona - Equity Analyst
Thank you. Irene Himona at Bernstein. Carol, I wanted to ask a question, not as interim CEO but as Head of Trading. When you were adding to the portfolio things like our care, biogas, and Lightsource, renewables, you had expressed the sort of vision that by enhancing or adding more tradable products. The return from trading would thereby improve and today you disclosed a 4% enhancement to group [ROTCE] from trading, which to me sounds sort of top end of the range you had given before.
謝謝。艾琳希莫娜在伯恩斯坦。卡羅爾,我想問一個問題,不是以臨時執行長的身份,而是以交易主管的身份。當您將我們的護理、沼氣和 Lightsource 等再生能源添加到產品組合中時,您表達了一種願景,即透過增強或增加更多可交易的產品。因此,交易回報將會提高,而今天您披露了交易將使集團[ROTCE]增長4%,在我看來,這聽起來像是您之前給出的範圍的上限。
It used to be 2-to-4 or 3-to-4, so I wanted to ask, is this 4% over the last six years Legacy oil and gas or have these businesses which actually you impaired today, have they made any contribution to that profitability of trading? Thank you.
以前是 2 到 4 或 3 到 4,所以我想問,這 4% 是指過去六年傳統石油和天然氣業務的虧損,還是指您今天實際上已經減記的這些業務,它們對交易盈利能力做出了任何貢獻?謝謝。
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
So thank you for the question, Irene. So we have delivered, as you said, 4% from supply trading and shipping for the six year in a row, and what I would just call out there is that, that's been through a number of commodity cycles, it's through lots of different volatility sets. So what we have is a really competitively advantaged team who look at our BP business from the asset base, so I think we've sort of said before. We look at what can we optimize and deliver from the asset base, that's around 2%, we look at around 1% from optimization and 1% from value trading.
謝謝你的提問,艾琳。正如你所說,我們已經連續六年實現了供應貿易和運輸 4% 的增長,我想指出的是,這經歷了許多商品週期,經歷了許多不同的波動情況。所以我們現在擁有一支真正具有競爭優勢的團隊,他們從資產基礎的角度看待我們的 BP 業務,我想我們之前也說過類似的話。我們著眼於如何優化和利用現有資產,這約佔 2%,其中約 1% 來自優化,1% 來自價值交易。
So within that, we do work for example with (inaudible) around routes to market and around the different types of channels, whether that's into utilities or into transport, so we support that. We've also supported working with refineries and with our oil and gas business as you say. I think what we've seen is a real sort of change in one, the BP portfolio, we've got such a rich set of opportunities at higher sort of levels of return, which means we need to make really difficult choices, so that's what you will have seen in Q4 around the (inaudible) impairment, for example.
因此,我們在這方面開展工作,例如與(聽不清楚)合作,圍繞市場管道和不同類型的管道,無論是進入公用事業還是進入交通運輸,我們都提供支援。正如你所說,我們也支持與煉油廠以及我們的石油和天然氣業務合作。我認為我們已經看到的是BP投資組合的真正變化,我們擁有大量回報水平更高的機會,這意味著我們需要做出非常艱難的選擇,所以這就是你們在第四季度看到的(聽不清楚)減值等情況。
We're making difficult choices in terms of where we're putting our CapEx going forward because we see returns elsewhere. I would say we don't guide forward on the 4%, but I would say -- I think the capability and the experience within the team has meant that we can deliver that through a number of different opportunity sets, and we optimize the assets that BP has and we will continue to do that going forward.
鑑於我們在其他地方看到了回報,我們在未來資本支出的投入方面做出了艱難的選擇。我不會說我們目前沒有給出 4% 的目標,但我認為團隊的能力和經驗意味著我們可以透過多種不同的機會來實現這一目標,我們會優化 BP 擁有的資產,並且我們將繼續這樣做。
Operator
Operator
Okay, thanks Irene, we don't have any further questions online, so we'll stay in the room. Is that Al Sime?
好的,謝謝艾琳,我們網路上沒有其他問題了,所以我們會留在房間裡。那是阿爾·西姆嗎?
Alastair Syme - Analyst
Alastair Syme - Analyst
Alright, Alastair Syme, Citi. I'm not sure who I'm asking this to, can I ask about the Mona project? I appreciate it's under BP Jera nex, but the decision to go forward and on that development to leave Morgan. What's the sort of the timeline and how should we think about the financials, given that you didn't get anything under the AR7 auction.
好的,阿拉斯泰爾·西姆,花旗銀行。我不太確定該問誰,請問Mona專案有什麼問題嗎?我知道這是 BP Jera nex 的計劃,但決定繼續推進並基於這一發展離開 Morgan 是錯誤的。鑑於你在 AR7 拍賣中一無所獲,那麼時間表大概是怎樣的?我們該如何看待財務方面的問題?
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
So I say that, that is a JV discussion so in terms of that decision to move forward with Mona, so I mean I think it is a question for the JV. One thing I would say is, from our perspective we're not looking at any increase or update in terms of what we said previously with regard to capital allocation to that JV. So that just remains consistent from what we've said previously. In case that was behind the question.
所以我認為,這是合資企業內部的討論,至於是否繼續推進與 Mona 的合作,我認為這是合資企業需要考慮的問題。我想說的是,從我們的角度來看,我們目前沒有考慮增加或更新之前所說的對該合資企業的資本分配。所以這和我們之前所說的是一致的。如果這就是問題的背後原因的話。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Alastair. I am -- no questions on this side, I'm going round two then, Lydia at the front, please.
謝謝你,阿拉斯泰爾。我──這邊沒問題了,那我進行第二輪提問,莉迪亞請上前。
Lydia Rainforth - Analyst
Lydia Rainforth - Analyst
Thanks, it's Lydia again from Barclays. I haven't asked a question about technology and AI in particularly, and it's one of my favorite topics, but when you think about sort of what you can achieve, the progress that is made on AI, and it won't just be cost, it'll be recovery rates, etc. Can you just express -- just share your thoughts on the agentic AI side?
謝謝,我是巴克萊銀行的莉迪亞。我還沒有問過關於科技和人工智慧的具體問題,而這正是我最喜歡的話題之一。想想人工智慧能夠達成的成就,它所取得的進步,不僅體現在成本上,也體現在恢復率等方面。您能否談談您對智能體人工智慧的看法?
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, I'll let me have a go at that. One of the things I'm particularly excited about is what we call Wells advisors, so BP's been drilling wells for well over 100 years, so you can imagine the amount of learning, data and knowledge that we have in our system, and that's a variety of systems. So we've now created an AI system where our well site leaders, the people on the rig, who are making day to day decisions, facing problems, problem solving. They can access all that data through Wells Advisor, which is using AI as a platform. So there's huge benefits of that.
好的,我試試看。我特別興奮的一點是我們稱之為「油井顧問」的東西,BP 鑽井已有 100 多年的歷史,所以你可以想像我們的系統中積累了多少經驗、數據和知識,而且這涵蓋了各種各樣的系統。因此,我們現在已經創建了一個人工智慧系統,我們的油井現場負責人、鑽井平台上的人員,他們每天都在做決策、面對問題、解決問題。他們可以透過 Wells Advisor 存取所有這些數據,該平台使用人工智慧。所以這樣做有很多好處。
The other one that that we're doing right now, again in the Wells, I've got examples in every discipline, but I like the Wells ones, I have to say the -- the Kick detection, we monitor all our wells with an extra pair of eyes now from monitoring centers in Houston and in Sunbury. And we've put AI algorithms in place that will have small kicks, tiny kicks that the human may not detect on the rig floor. We're picking them up using AI, and with 90% success rate, we can detect small kicks within roughly a minute, and that allows us to react before it becomes a problem, before you have to shut down drilling, before you have to shut the well and circulate out that pressure.
我們現在正在做的另一件事,也是在油井裡,我在每個學科都有例子,但我最喜歡油井的例子,我必須說——井噴檢測,我們現在透過休士頓和桑伯里的監測中心,用額外的眼睛來監測我們所有的油井。我們已經部署了人工智慧演算法,這些演算法會產生微小的、人類在鑽井平台上可能無法察覺的震動。我們利用人工智慧來檢測它們,成功率高達 90%,我們可以在大約一分鐘內檢測到微小的井湧,這使我們能夠在問題發生之前做出反應,在不得不停止鑽井、關閉油井並釋放壓力之前做出反應。
It allows you to react with the weight on bit and mud weight, and it just allows the drilling to happen more smoothly, so there's lots of examples where we're doing that across every technical discipline in my shop with (inaudible) and his team's help, of course, with their digital expertise, their AI expertise, so I think every function across the company has examples like that.
它能讓你根據鑽頭壓力和泥漿壓力做出反應,使鑽井過程更加順利。在我的車間裡,我們利用(聽不清楚)和他的團隊的幫助,在各個技術領域都做了很多這樣的例子,當然,這得益於他們的數位化專業知識和人工智慧專業知識。我認為公司裡的每個部門都有這樣的例子。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Super. Great. We'll stay on this side who definitely are the keenest with Lucas there please.
極好的。偉大的。我們會留在這一邊,他們顯然是最希望盧卡斯在那裡的。
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Lucas Herrmann - Analyst
Thanks very much, Craig, it's Lucas Hermann from BNP.
非常感謝,克雷格,我是法國巴黎銀行的盧卡斯‧赫爾曼。
One perhaps, but, well for you, Carol or you Kate, well, Gordon equally -- it's -- I'm listening to what you're saying, and there's a very rightful targeting of balance sheet, etc. And search to improve the balance sheet. And, in doing that obviously you're taking away from equity holders in the near term and you're asking them to stay with you. And you're not giving equity holders a date whereby, they might expect to see, greater distributions from the company in line with many of your peers.
或許有一個,但是,嗯,對你來說,卡羅爾,或者你,凱特,嗯,戈登也一樣——是——我在聽你們說的,而且對資產負債表等進行重點關注是非常合理的。並尋求改善資產負債表的方法。這樣做顯然會在短期內損害股東的利益,而你卻要求他們繼續留在你身邊。而且,你也沒有給股東一個特定的日期,讓他們能夠預期公司會像許多同業一樣進行更高的分紅。
So, effectively, I'm sitting here and I'm thinking, well, what's the investment case around this stock? And increasingly it comes back to obviously improvement, much of which though you've already stated and indicated, where it comes back to what you're trying to emphasize, I think is growth. And okay, if I'm going to believe in growth and the growth opportunity of your portfolio. What should I expect in terms of the continued release from you, demonstration from you around your opportunity set and why it is that I should accord a higher multiple effectively to this stock.
所以,實際上,我坐在這裡,思考著,這支股票的投資價值是什麼?而且,很明顯,這越來越體現在改進上,雖然你已經陳述和指出了其中許多方面,但歸根結底,我認為,你想要強調的是成長。好吧,如果我相信成長以及你的投資組合的成長機會的話。我應該期待您繼續發布哪些訊息?您將如何展示您的投資機會?以及為什麼我應該給這檔股票更高的估值倍數?
And your business going forward, given that in the context of immediate return, I'm really, I'm not expecting very much over the course of the next two to three years, given the way you've defined and thought about balance sheet. I think there is a question in there somewhere, it's asking you effectively, please tell me what the investment case for BP is, whether that's an appropriate definition, but more importantly is how do you see the investment case for BP, or should we just be waiting for Meg to arrive? And I know you've got your own views, but at that point you formulate as a group. So, I'm not trying to insult anyone, I'm just trying to understand.
至於你未來的業務發展,考慮到你對資產負債表的定義和思考方式,就短期回報而言,我真的不抱太大期望,預計未來兩到三年內不會有太大的回報。我認為這裡面其實有個問題,它實際上是在問你,請告訴我BP的投資理由是什麼,無論這個定義是否恰當,但更重要的是,你如何看待BP的投資理由,或者我們是否應該只是等待巨齒鯊的到來?我知道你們都有自己的看法,但到了那個時候,你們要團結起來,形成一個集體。所以,我不是想冒犯任何人,我只是想弄清楚。
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
No, completely understand. And look, let me just start on that last bit because I think, what is clear, the board and the leadership team, we're very clear that the strategic direction is right in terms of what we laid out in February. So we are focused on delivering that, we're focused on delivering the primary targets. We know that there's more opportunity there, and that is a good thing because we know that there is more that we can deliver. So we're focused on improving performance, improving competitiveness, and of course doing all of that safely.
不,完全理解。好的,讓我先談談最後一點,因為我認為,董事會和領導團隊都非常清楚,我們在二月制定的策略方向是正確的。所以我們專注於實現這些目標,並專注於實現主要目標。我們知道那裡還有更多的機會,這是一件好事,因為我們知道我們能提供更多的東西。因此,我們專注於提高效能、增強競爭力,當然,這一切都要在安全的前提下進行。
So very much focused on that. We're in action, that doesn't change when Meg comes, because that is our strategic direction. In terms of that, and I'll let Gordon speak sort of more deeply to the hopper, but you know we do have, and the team has created the best set of opportunities from an upstream exploration and access perspective that we've seen for a long time. So there is a lot of opportunity set there, as Kate said, it's created at the drill bit, we're not looking at going and buying expensive barrels in order to increase our reserves or to look at the sort of resilience and length of those reserves.
所以非常專注於此。我們正在採取行動,梅格到來後這一點也不會改變,因為這就是我們的策略方向。就這一點而言,我會讓戈登更深入地談談這個問題,但你知道,我們確實擁有,而且團隊已經從上游勘探和准入的角度創造了我們很長一段時間以來見過的最好的機會。所以,正如凱特所說,那裡有很多機會,這些機會是在鑽井過程中創造出來的,我們並不打算去購買昂貴的油桶來增加我們的儲量,也不打算考慮這些儲量的韌性和持續時間。
So we believe we've got a differentiated portfolio versus our competitors, and our challenge is deciding how we access it, what's the best value for our shareholders, and delivering the returns and making sure that we actually deliver on the major project execution success that we've seen previously. We brought these projects online last year, five ahead of schedule. That is significant capability, as Gordon says, IPA benchmarking, best-in-class for bringing projects up and keeping them up.
因此,我們相信我們擁有與競爭對手不同的投資組合,我們面臨的挑戰是如何獲得這些投資,如何為股東創造最大價值,如何實現回報,以及如何確保我們能夠真正實現之前所取得的重大項目執行成功。去年,我們提前五個專案完成了這些專案的上線工作。正如戈登所說,這是一項重要的能力,IPA 基準測試顯示,這是啟動和維持專案的最佳方案。
So these are all things from a forward profile perspective that you can look to from BP delivery, but Gordon, do you want --
所以這些都是從前瞻性角度來看,你可以從BP的交付情況中了解到的信息,但是戈登,你想要什麼?--
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
No, thank you, now I'll just emphasize a couple of things and Lucas, I would offer you reasons to believe short-term, medium term, long-term.
不,謝謝。現在我只想強調幾點,盧卡斯,我會給你一些理由,讓你相信短期、中期和長期的事情。
Short-term, the base is strong. What's online today, we're managing decline within that 3% to 5%. The infill program that we have, the short-term barrels that pays the bills, strong, rigs running very efficiently, 70% of the wells that we drill are first and second quartile, so short-term you've got an efficient machine that that's bringing bringing resource forward into production, into cash.
短期來看,基礎穩固。目前線上業務的下滑幅度控制在 3% 到 5% 以內。我們現有的加密鑽井計劃,以及能夠支付賬單的短期原油產量,都表現強勁,鑽井平台運行效率很高,我們鑽探的油井中有 70% 是第一和第二等級的,因此短期內,我們擁有一台高效的機器,能夠將資源轉化為生產,轉化為現金。
Medium term, I would say you've got BPX growing to 650,000 barrels per day of high-quality production. Average returns across BPX at the moment 45% IRR at $65 WTI $3.50 Henry hub. And then the paleogene comes on in '29 through '30 and we'll ramp up, so that's the medium term. We've got strong medium term.
中期來看,我認為BPX的高品質原油日產量將成長到65萬桶。目前 BPX 的平均回報率為 45% IRR,WTI 原油價格為 65 美元,亨利中心價格為 3.50 美元。然後古近紀地質活動將在 1929 年至 1930 年間到來,我們將加強力,這就是中期目標。我們擁有強勁的中期前景。
And then longer-term, you've got, when I say longer-term, early 2030s, I hope, we'll bring on Bumerangue, the Azul fields will start coming on in Namibia, there's more to go in Angola, and there'll be much more Paleogene to come on as well. We've got 10 billion barrels of reserve of oil in place in the Paleogene. The first two projects, Kaskida, Tiber, Guadalupe are only developing about 600 million, so there's a huge amount of running room in the Paleogene longer-term. So there's a short-term case, medium-term case, and long-term case that I believe are reasons to believe.
從長遠來看,我說的長遠是指 2030 年代初,我希望屆時布梅朗格油田能夠投產,納米比亞的阿祖爾油田也將開始開採,安哥拉還有更多油田待開採,古近紀油田能夠投產,納米比亞的阿祖爾油田也將開始開採,安哥拉還有更多油田待開採,古近紀油田也會有更多油田待開採。我們在古近紀地層中蘊藏著100億桶石油儲量。前兩個項目,卡斯基達、台伯、瓜達盧佩,目前只開發了約 6 億美元,因此古近紀的長期發展還有很大的空間。所以,我認為有短期、中期和長期三種情況,這些都是值得相信的理由。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks Lucas, and I've just come back to what we said earlier, the simpler, stronger, more valuable BP. The simpler piece is the action we're taking on the portfolio, is the right decisions to simplify the portfolio, it creates optionality. The stronger piece, which is about the cost we're taking out of the system, the opportunity there, that we've got. And also around really focusing that portfolio and the optionality that I think Gordon talks about.
謝謝盧卡斯,我又回到了我們之前說的,更簡單、更強大、更有價值的BP。更簡單的部分是我們對投資組合採取的行動,是簡化投資組合的正確決策,它創造了選擇權。更有力的部分是關於我們從系統中移除的成本,以及我們所擁有的機會。此外,還要真正專注於投資組合以及戈登所說的選擇權。
And ultimately that more valuable BP is the piece around what can we do in combination as we try to drive that simplification and strengthening the company. So I think that real focusing, discipline is something -- and of course we run the company, not just for the next week, the next quarter, these are around long-term value optimization decisions, and I think we feel like they're the right things to be taking, so I think come back to that simpler, stronger, more valuable piece.
最終,BP 更有價值的地方在於,當我們努力推動簡化和加強公司時,我們可以採取哪些組合措施。所以我認為真正的專注和自律是很重要的——當然,我們經營公司不僅僅是為了下週、下個季度,這些都是圍繞長期價值優化決策展開的,我認為我們覺得這些決策是正確的,所以我認為應該回歸到更簡單、更強大、更有價值的部分。
Maybe, yes, Kim, sorry, I've not had a question from you.
或許吧,金,抱歉,我還沒收到你的問題。
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Kim Fustier - Analyst
Thank you. Kim Faustier from HSBC. There's been a revival of interest in the MENA region from IOCs and of course BP was sort of early in this trend. Wonder if you could give us an update on early resource access and early stage activity in places like Libya, Iraq, Kuwait.
謝謝。來自匯豐銀行的 Kim Faustier。國際石油公司對中東和北非地區的興趣重新燃起,當然,BP也算是這股潮流的早期參與者之一。能否請您介紹一下利比亞、伊拉克、科威特等地早期資源取得和早期活動的最新情況?
And also maybe just a word about your exploration plans in the Gulf of Mexico where I think you accessed a lot of acreage in the recent licensing round.
另外,我想簡單談談您在墨西哥灣的勘探計劃,我認為您在最近的許可證發放輪次中獲得了大量的區塊。
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, let me just go to the Middle East first, Kim. So there is actually an exploration well we're drilling right now, Matsola offshore Libya, that our exploration team is very excited by. It's probably the most watched exploration well in the industry right now. We studied the well in January, it's a relatively short well, so we'll know the result of that one relatively quick.
是啊,金,我還是先去中東吧。所以,我們目前正在鑽探一口勘探井,位於利比亞近海的馬索拉,我們的勘探團隊對此感到非常興奮。這可能是目前業界最受關注的勘探井。我們在一月份對這口井進行了研究,這是一口相對較短的井,所以我們很快就能知道結果。
And then of course in Iraq we've been in Rumaila for many years and that's been a tremendous success story. We've managed the whole production flat in Rumaila for many years. That led us to be invited into Kirkuk within the contract area and 3 billion barrels of oil in place. In the bigger area likely to be 20 billion barrels in place, so huge resources there.
當然,在伊拉克,我們已經在魯邁拉開展工作多年,那是一個非常成功的案例。多年來,我們一直負責管理魯邁拉的整個生產基地。這使得我們受邀進入基爾庫克市的合約區域,蘊藏著 30 億桶石油。更大的區域內可能蘊藏 200 億桶原油,資源量龐大。
So we've made huge progress and of course Abu Dhabi, the P5 investment program that we've been putting our dollars into along with the partners onshore Abu Dhabi is showing up in terms of growth as well. So a huge amount of growth in our portfolio in the Middle East.
因此,我們取得了巨大的進步,當然,我們與阿布達比當地合作夥伴共同投入資金的 P5 投資計畫在阿布達比也取得了成長。因此,我們在中東的投資組合實現了巨大的成長。
Gulf of America exploration program, it's part of reloading the hopper. So our exploration hopper, we've been around the world and actively, like many companies, actively reloading our hopper. The Gulf of America, of course, an area that we know very well, been there for many years, and we've reloaded some in the Miocene, but mainly in the Paleogene, so that's created even more running room.
美國灣勘探計劃,這是重新裝填料鬥的一部分。所以,我們的勘探船已經環遊世界,並且像許多公司一樣,積極地重新裝載我們的勘探船。當然,美洲灣是我們非常熟悉的地區,我們在那裡已經生活了很多年,我們在中新世時期重新裝載了一些,但主要是在古近紀時期,所以這創造了更大的運行空間。
The next exploration well in the Paleogene will be Conifer, which we'll spud later this year, which could be quite an exciting tie back to Kaskida eventually. So again, creates longevity on that Paleogene opportunity that we have. So there's lots of running room in the Gulf of America, a lot in the Paleogene, still some in the Miocene that we've been producing from historically for many, many years.
古近紀的下一個勘探井將是 Conifer,我們將在今年稍後開鑽,最終可能會與 Kaskida 建立非常令人興奮的聯繫。所以,這再次為我們提供了利用古近紀時期這一機會的持久性。所以美洲灣還有很多開採空間,古近紀地層也有很多,中新世地層也有一些,我們歷史上已經開採了很多很多年了。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Okay, we'll move over to this side [Maurizio].
好的,我們移到這邊去。[毛里齊奧]
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
(technical difficulty)
(技術難題)
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
So he's responsible for oversight of our delivery and our strategic direction. And we, as the leadership team and CEO when Meg comes in, are responsible for the day-to-day running of the company. So we do have many interactions as you can manage with the Board on that basis in terms of sharing with them progress against strategic milestones, and in particular, the delivery that we've been talking about here.
因此,他負責監督我們的交付和策略方向。而我們,作為領導團隊和執行長(梅格加入後),將負責公司的日常運作。因此,我們與董事會進行了很多互動,正如您在此基礎上所做的那樣,以便與他們分享戰略里程碑的進展情況,特別是我們一直在談論的交付情況。
We talk about also where we are on portfolio and where we believe that we need to get to and why? And we also share with them competitor insights. We share with them benchmarking, how we're looking to continuously improve what we're doing. So having that composition of the board means that we have people who've been in the industry. We have people who are outside of the industry who challenge us in different ways as well from a technology perspective.And I think that just helps us generate more ideation and thinking, and we challenge ourselves from that perspective. So the intent there is to make even better decisions with the use of that capability set. How do you feel about it, Kate?
我們也會討論我們目前的投資組合狀況,以及我們認為需要達到的目標和原因?我們也會與他們分享競爭對手的資訊。我們會與他們分享基準測試結果,以及我們如何不斷改進我們的工作。因此,董事會的這種組成意味著我們擁有業內人士。我們還有一些來自業界以外的人士,他們從技術角度以不同的方式挑戰我們。我認為這有助於我們產生更多想法和思考,並讓我們從這個角度不斷挑戰自我。因此,其目的是為了利用這些能力做出更好的決策。凱特,你對此有何感想?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Sure that's three questions in one, but look, I've been on the board now for two years and my reflections are during that time, I think the conversations in the boardroom have got better and better. Albert coming in as Chairman, he's been incredibly supportive. He brings a different style and that freshness is great, and I think we welcome it. It's great to have a different set of eyes coming in to ask questions and it's really important in any area of any business that you have a freshness coming in and an ability to look at from the outside and ask the right questions, so I welcome that. I particularly welcome the number of ex-CFOs I have around me. That's a real treat.
當然,這其實是三個問題合在一起了,但你看,我已經在董事會任職兩年了,我的反思是,在這段時間裡,我認為董事會的討論越來越好了。阿爾伯特擔任董事長以來,給予了極大的支持。他帶來了不同的風格,這種新鮮感非常棒,我認為我們很歡迎。很高興能有不同的視角來提出問題,在任何行業的任何領域,引入新鮮血液,從外部視角審視問題並提出正確的問題都非常重要,所以我很歡迎這種做法。我尤其歡迎我身邊有這麼多前任財務長。真是太棒了。
And then I think the addition of Dave Hager, as deep upstream experience, particularly on the onshore. Again, we have retirements that will continue to roll through as a board, and it's important that the board is thinking ahead of those to make sure that the succession is smooth, and that's a lot of what you've also seen happening in the boardroom. But I think the board are incredibly supportive of management. I think we have really good quality conversations and debates. It's not just a monologue and presentation, it's a conversation which I think is incredibly helpful.
然後,我認為戴夫·哈格的加入也很有意義,因為他擁有豐富的上游經驗,尤其是在陸上方面。再次強調,董事會成員會陸續退休,因此董事會必須事先考慮這些退休事宜,以確保順利交接,而這正是你們在董事會中看到的許多事情。但我認為董事會非常支持管理階層。我認為我們之間的對話和辯論品質非常高。這不僅是獨白和演講,更是一場對話,我認為這非常有幫助。
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, Maurizio just I'll give you a very brief answer, I've founder Dave Hager and Simon Henry tremendous challenge, they're very experienced oil and gas people, of course. Their ability to challenge William Lynn and myself in the matter of oil and gas investments performance is actually tremendous.
是的,Maurizio,我給你一個簡短的回答,創辦人Dave Hager和Simon Henry面臨著巨大的挑戰,他們當然都是經驗豐富的石油和天然氣行業人士。他們在石油和天然氣投資績效方面挑戰威廉林恩和我的能力確實非常強大。
Now we'd call out Melody Meyers as well, Melody's been around a few years, and her challenge on safety, frankly, has made us a better company. And then of course Albert is value driven, and we like that.
現在我們還要特別提到梅洛迪·邁耶斯,梅洛迪已經在公司工作幾年了,坦白說,她對安全的挑戰使我們成為了一家更好的公司。當然,阿爾伯特非常注重價值,我們很欣賞這一點。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Thank you.
謝謝。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks Maurizio. Yes, Josh, and then we'll come back to the phone.
謝謝你,毛里齊奧。是的,喬什,然後我們再回頭看電話。
Joshua Stone - Analyst
Joshua Stone - Analyst
Thank you, Josh Stone again from UBS. I wanted to ask you about your integrated model because in the past when anyone's challenged you on that, you've always said lots of value in trading, we won't sort of entertain splitting aparts the business. But if we look at the last sort of year, it feels like there's been an awful lot of oil and gas or sort of satellite ventures set up off sort of the consolidated parents. And you yourselves have done similar things with what I think about your offshore wind venture. It sounds like you're going to do a similar thing on Lightsource BP maybe also on Kirkuk.
再次感謝瑞銀集團的Josh Stone。我想問您關於您的一體化模式,因為過去每當有人質疑您這一點時,您總是說交易中有很多價值,我們不會考慮拆分業務。但如果我們回顧過去一年,感覺好像有很多石油和天然氣公司或類似的衛星企業都是從合併後的母公司衍生出來的。而你們自己也對你們的離岸風電計畫做過類似的事情,我對此深表贊同。聽起來你打算在 Lightsource BP 上做類似的事情,或許也會在 Kirkuk 上做。
So when you think about -- Yeah, the potential for maybe doing more transactions like this and to unlock value from your, particularly from your oil and gas business, actually in particular, I'm thinking about BPX because you talked about some particularly attractive returns there. Is your view still that BPX is far better on the consolidated business, or actually could this be one where there's a lot of strategic value as an independent company? Thanks.
所以,當你思考——是的,或許可以進行更多類似的交易,並從你的,特別是你的石油和天然氣業務中釋放價值,實際上,我特別想到的是BPX,因為你談到了那裡一些特別有吸引力的回報。您是否仍然認為 BPX 在合併後的業務中表現更佳,或者實際上作為一家獨立公司,它可能具有很大的戰略價值?謝謝。
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
I mean I think I'll come at it and add something on the trading side and then if I'll pass it to Gordon. So I mean I think the first thing we'd say is, BPX is a core part of BP. It's got a greater production forecast through to the end of the decade. I'll let Gordon talk to that. And it's also a great shore of onshore expertise that we share across the rest of BP so that would be difficult to replicate.
我的意思是,我想我會參與進來,在交易方面做出一些貢獻,然後我會把它交給戈登。所以我的意思是,我認為我們首先要說的是,BPX 是 BP 的核心部分。預計到本十年末,其產量將持續成長。我會讓戈登去談論這件事。而且,我們還擁有大量陸上專業技術,這些技術在BP其他部門之間共享,因此很難複製。
In terms of decisions around, do we keep it for integrated value or not, the key thing there is, what is the best value for BP. So if we do believe that actually it's better value, somebody else will value that position more, and we can actually utilize the proceeds from that into a different opportunity that we value more, even if there is trading value associated with it, we will make the right decision for BP on that basis.
至於是否保留它以實現綜合價值的決策,關鍵在於,對 BP 而言,什麼是最佳價值。所以,如果我們確實認為它更有價值,其他人也會更看重這個職位,而且我們可以將所得收益用於我們更看重的其他機會,即使它有交易價值,我們也會基於此為 BP 做出正確的決定。
Now that doesn't mean of course from the trading perspective we don't try and negotiate in terms of what those terms are or whether we can keep access in any way, shape or form for the better value, the additive value. But it's all about, is this the right thing for BP to do strategically, are we going to get fair market value proceeds in? Can we use those proceeds elsewhere more wisely for something that creates a better opportunity and does it deliver better value for shareholders? If the answer's yes. If my training team are listening, then the answer is that's what we'll do.
當然,從交易的角度來看,這並不意味著我們不會嘗試就這些條款進行談判,或者我們是否能夠以任何方式、形式或途徑獲得更好的價值、更高的附加價值。但關鍵在於,從策略角度來看,這對 BP 來說是否是正確的做法,我們能否獲得公平的市場價值效益?我們能否更明智地將這些資金用於其他方面,創造更好的機會,並為股東帶來更大的價值?如果答案是肯定的。如果我的訓練團隊聽取了我的意見,那麼答案就是我們會這麼做。
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, I would just add, Josh, it's a great question, but BPX, 7 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent in place, 30 TCF of gas, 15 yet to develop. It's a core part of BP, and there is the integration value which I'll finish on, but it is such a core part of BP and the performance in the last two years has just come on leaps and bounds on three -- maybe two metrics that I have mentioned already.
是的,我還要補充一點,Josh,這是一個很好的問題,但是BPX擁有70億桶石油和天然氣當量儲量,30萬億立方英尺天然氣,還有15萬億立方英尺待開發。這是 BP 的核心部分,還有整合價值,我稍後會詳細闡述。但它確實是 BP 的核心部分,而且在過去兩年裡,它在三個(也許是兩個)我之前提到的指標上取得了突飛猛進的進步。
The NPV per acre that we have is the highest, we're either one, two or three in the three basins that we operate in the Permian, the Delaware side of the Permian, the Eagle further, the Hainesville, we're number one, two, and three are NPV per section.
我們每英畝的淨現值最高,在我們經營的三個盆地(二疊紀盆地特拉華州一側、鷹盆地和海恩斯維爾盆地)中,我們排名第一、第二或第三,按地塊計算,我們的淨現值也排名第一、第二和第三。
We're first quartile in reserves per foot drilled across the three basins that we're drilling, and most recently in the last six months, we've been knocking it out of the park in terms of reserves and production per well from East Texas in the Hainesville.
我們在所鑽探的三個盆地中,每英尺鑽井儲量均位列前四分之一,而且最近六個月,我們在東德克薩斯州海恩斯維爾盆地的單井儲量和產量方面取得了巨大成功。
So it's a core part of our company, performance has improved, it's a key part of our growth, and the team in Denver work hand in glove with Carol's team to maximize the value that we get from the production, so we like having it in the portfolio and no intention to sell it off at this point.
所以它是我們公司的核心部分,業績有所提升,是我們發展的關鍵部分,丹佛的團隊與卡羅爾的團隊密切合作,最大限度地提高我們從生產中獲得的價值,所以我們喜歡把它保留在我們的投資組合中,目前沒有出售的打算。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Gordon. We'll go to the phone, follow-up question with Paul Cheng. Paul?
謝謝你,戈登。接下來,我們將接聽保羅·程的電話,進行後續提問。保羅?
Paul Y. Cheng - Analyst
Paul Y. Cheng - Analyst
Thank you, Paul Cheng, Scotiabank. I mean, there's a little bit of the other side of the question of what Josh just asked. On one hand, I think you guys were saying that you want to create a simpler and streamline operation of BP.
感謝加拿大豐業銀行的鄭保羅先生。我的意思是,這個問題還有另一面,跟喬希剛才問的有點關係。一方面,我認為你們說過你們想要創造一個更簡單、更有效率的BP營運模式。
And on the other hand, that, from time to time that you have formed joint venture, like whether you're in Angola, in Norway, and now that after the sales of Castrol, and I think we all have seen from history, joint venture maybe as great in day one, but over time become very difficult to manage and complicated the operation and your decision making. And so how do you balance the two objectives.
另一方面,你們不時會成立合資企業,例如在安哥拉、挪威,以及現在嘉實多出售之後,我想我們都從歷史中看到了,合資企業在第一天可能很棒,但隨著時間的推移,管理起來會變得非常困難,運營和決策也會變得複雜。那麼,如何平衡這兩個目標呢?
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
Carol Howle - Interim Chief Executive Officer, Executive Vice President - Trading and Shipping
So I think Paul, let me start and then I'll pass it to the team. So we balance it in terms of what do we think is going to create the best value for BP, what's the best opportunity in the market, and then how can we execute it in the most efficient way. And we've got a number of these JVs that we've participated in and we've learnt a lot as well from the JVs that we've participated in over the years.
所以我想,保羅,讓我先開始,然後我再把任務交給團隊。因此,我們會權衡利弊,考慮什麼能為 BP 創造最大價值,市場上的最佳機會是什麼,以及我們如何以最有效的方式執行它。多年來,我們參與了許多合資項目,也從這些合資項目中學到了很多。
Some of that has been how to improve or where we need to reduce complexity or indeed where we've been able to bring learnings into BP and and also improve ourselves from that. But the key is around, it's a value conversation that we have, and we will always look to try and minimize complexity and improve safety and and the operational reliability around them, but we do have a lot of experience in the area, both for JVs that we are no longer in, but also the ones that we're deeply embedded in today.
其中一些內容是關於如何改進,或者我們需要在哪些方面降低複雜性,或者我們能夠在哪些方面將經驗教訓帶入 BP,並從中改進我們自己。但關鍵在於,這是我們進行的價值對話,我們將始終努力減少複雜性,提高安全性和營運可靠性,但我們在這一領域確實有很多經驗,包括我們不再參與的合資企業,以及我們今天深度參與的合資企業。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
And maybe if I add a couple of other thoughts, Paul. I think that the philosophy of being simple is good, and I think complexity can slow you down and it can make you expensive, and neither are particularly helpful when you're trying to create maximum value. But there are times where you can create unique opportunities to create value through a marriage of assets and partners, and I'd call out Akar and Azul actually because I think what you've had there is you've had a symbiosis occur where you've had the right partner with the right marriage of assets put together to create a differential value proposition. It doesn't occur everywhere, but where those circumstances exist, then I think it's appropriate to contemplate stepping into that complexity to create the incremental value, and we see something very similar with Castrol.
保羅,或許我還可以補充幾點。我認為化繁為簡的理念是好的,而複雜性會拖慢你的速度,增加你的成本,這兩者都不利於你創造最大價值。但有時,透過資產和合作夥伴的結合,你可以創造獨特的價值創造機會。我特別想提一下 Akar 和 Azul,因為我認為你們之間實現了共生關係,你們找到了合適的合作夥伴,並將合適的資產結合起來,創造了差異化的價值主張。這種情況並非到處都會發生,但當這些情況存在時,我認為就應該考慮涉足這種複雜性,以創造增量價值,我們在嘉實多身上也看到了非常類似的情況。
As we looked across the entire range of different options we had on Castrol. The transaction that we signed just before Christmas was the transaction that would deliver the most value for us as a company and I think that's important that we always have that philosophy as our very, very core as we contemplate different structures, but I don't think you can ever rule them out, it's about creating the most value and that will come down to facts and circumstances.
我們仔細查看了嘉實多提供的所有不同選項。我們在聖誕節前簽署的那筆交易,是能為我們公司帶來最大價值的交易。我認為,在考慮不同的組織架構時,始終將這個理念作為我們的核心原則非常重要。但我認為,我們永遠不能排除其他方案,關鍵在於創造最大價值,而這最終取決於事實和情況。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks Kate, we'll come back to the room. Question at the back with Matt.
謝謝凱特,我們一會兒就回房間。在後面向馬特提問。
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Matthew Lofting - Analyst
Thanks, Matt Lofting, JPM, just to follow-up on the cost reduction program. The progress through the $2.8 billion in the last two years has been really good and swift. Looks like I guess the target ex Castrol implies that the run rate slows over the next two years. I just wondered what's holding you back from being more ambitious and raising that target at this point.
謝謝摩根大通的 Matt Lofting,我只是想跟進一下成本削減計劃的情況。過去兩年中,28億美元的進展非常順利且迅速。看來,目標價(指嘉實多)暗示未來兩年產量成長將會放緩。我只是想知道,是什麼阻礙了你變得更有雄心壯志,並在這個時候提高目標。
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Shall I take that one? Look, we've delivered really well so far against the $4 billion to $5 billion, $2.8 billion, so well over halfway there. I honestly on cost, I don't think you're ever done. I mean, ultimately, why are you focused on your cost base? It's to make you the most efficient company and the most competitive company you can be amongst your peer group. That has to be why you're doing this in order to drive incremental cash flow. And we talked about AI earlier. I think a lot of the areas of the company we are looking hard at AI both in terms of cost reductions, but also increased productivity, and I think we're just at the early stages of truly understanding what it's going to unlock.
我選那個好嗎?你看,到目前為止,我們已經完成了 40 億至 50 億美元的目標,達到了 28 億美元,遠遠超過一半了。說實話,就成本而言,我認為你永遠不會真正完成。我的意思是,歸根結底,你為什麼要關注成本基礎?這是為了讓你們成為同業中最有效率、最具競爭力的公司。你這樣做肯定是為了增加現金流。我們之前也討論過人工智慧。我認為公司很多領域都在大力應用人工智慧,既是為了降低成本,也是為了提高生產力。我認為我們目前還處於真正了解人工智慧將帶來哪些變革的早期階段。
I think there are so many opportunities there that we don't yet contemplate. With regard to upgrading targets, I think there's far more value to be gained by actually demonstrating what we're delivering rather than continually upgrading targets. So measure us on what we do as opposed to the targets that we put out, and I think you can hear, we are really focused on this area of efficiency and competitiveness, and we will keep going. We will continue to strive. Our competitors are not standing still, and neither are we.
我認為那裡有很多我們尚未考慮到的機會。關於目標升級,我認為與其不斷提高目標,不如實際展示我們正在取得的成果,這樣更有價值。所以,請根據我們實際所做的工作來衡量我們,而不是根據我們設定的目標來衡量。我想你們可以聽出來,我們確實非常注重效率和競爭力,我們將繼續努力。我們將繼續努力。我們的競爭對手不會停滯不前,我們也不會。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Okay, thank you. Take one more question from Doug and then Chris will come to you.
好的,謝謝。道格再問你一個問題,克里斯就會來問你了。
Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst
Douglas Leggate - Equity Analyst
Thank you. Kate, I'm going to come back to you if I may. Listening to the questions in the room, there still seems maybe it's a US versus European thing, I'm not sure, but there still seems to be a perception that cash returns and value return are the same thing, and they're obviously not.
謝謝。凱特,如果可以的話,我想再回去找你。聽著房間裡的問題,似乎仍然存在著美國與歐洲之間的差異,我不確定,但似乎仍然有人認為現金回報和價值回報是一回事,而它們顯然不是。
You've a $158 billion enterprise value if we take the capital structure as it sits, as it was at the end of '25. You've talked about taking that down to $143 billion. That's 2027, where do you see the optimal capital structure? However you want to express it as the $7 billion versus the $5 billion of debt holders versus shareholders, or maybe even in break breakeven terms. Where do you see the optimal capital structure by 2030?
如果以 2025 年底的資本結構來看,你的企業價值為 1,580 億美元。你曾說過要把這個數字降到 1,430 億美元。那是2027年,您認為最佳資本結構會是什麼樣的?無論你想用什麼方式來表達,例如債務持有人70億美元與股東50億美元之間的對比,甚至是用盈虧平衡點來表達。您認為2030年,最佳資本結構會是什麼樣的?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
I think Doug, that's a work in progress. This is the bit that I feel we need to spend quite a lot of time reflecting on in consideration of how we want to step into these growth options we have ahead of us. I think it's the right question to ask. Come back and ask me again in six months when I've had time to go through all of this with Meg.
我認為道格,那還在進行中。我認為我們需要花很多時間認真思考,如何掌握擺在我們面前的這些成長機會。我認為這是一個值得問的問題。六個月後,等我有時間和梅格把這一切都弄清楚之後,再來問我吧。
Prejudging, where we should get together as a leadership team once Meg is in the role, I think would be inappropriate. I think there's a moment in time as we as a new leadership team come together and take a really good look at where we're taking our company in the next five years, and debate that with the board, and then when we're ready, we'll be able to update that. It's absolutely the right question to ask. I just don't have a great answer for you right now because we're still working through that.
我認為,在梅格就任之後,我們應該以領導團隊的身份聚在一起進行預評判是不合適的。我認為,作為新的領導團隊,我們應該認真審視公司未來五年的發展方向,並與董事會進行討論,然後,當我們準備好時,我們將能夠更新相關計劃。這絕對是一個值得問的問題。我現在還無法給你一個完美的答案,因為我們還在研究這個問題。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Doug, we're going to take two last questions, one from Chris and then one at the back.
謝謝道格,我們最後再回答兩個問題,一個來自克里斯,另一個來自後排觀眾。
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Christopher Kuplent - Analyst
Thank you, it's Chris Kuplent again from Bank of America. Mine might be quick, Kate, I realize you've added the $1.5 billion Castrol leaving your OpEx into, your targets. What about your free cash flow target for 2027? It looks like Castrol did amazingly well this year, running at about a $700 million number or so in terms of free cash flow. Where are you in terms of how much free cash flow you've sold so far? $5 billion achieved in '25 plus $6 billion announced and do you therefore feel those are still free cash flow wise rounding errors before you have to update us on your 2027 free cash flow target?
謝謝,我是美國銀行的克里斯‧庫普倫特。我的可能很快就能完成,凱特,我知道你已經把嘉實多15億美元的營運支出計入了你的目標。你們2027年的自由現金流目標是多少?嘉實多今年的業績似乎非常出色,自由現金流約為 7 億美元。就目前為止的銷售額而言,你實現了多少自由現金流?2025 年實現了 50 億美元的自由現金流,加上先前宣布的 60 億美元,您是否認為這些在自由現金流方面仍然只是四捨五入的誤差,之後您才會向我們更新 2027 年的自由現金流目標?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Yeah, let me give you a quick answer and maybe we can come back to that with the IR team offline, Chris. As I look at the free cash flow targets, of course they were excluding any divestment on Castrol. Of course what we've got is we're taking operating cash flow out from the divestment, but of course we're also reducing CapEx. But on the other side I'm reducing my finance costs.
好的,我先給你一個簡單的答复,克里斯,或許我們可以和投資人關係團隊離線討論這個問題。當我查看自由現金流目標時,當然,這些目標不包括出售嘉實多股份的任何收益。當然,我們透過剝離資產減少了營運現金流,但同時也減少了資本支出。但另一方面,我正在降低我的財務成本。
So as I look at the totality of that, it's probably in the order of a couple of $100 million, but we have a range around our free cash flow generation. I'm still very confident of us delivering the targets. I see no need to change that right now when I contemplate the impact of the transaction, but we can take you through the bridge if that's helpful.
所以,綜合來看,總額可能在幾億美元左右,但我們對自由現金流的產生有一個大致的範圍。我仍然非常有信心我們能夠實現目標。考慮到此次交易的影響,我認為目前沒有必要做出改變,但如果這有幫助的話,我們可以帶您了解相關流程。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Great, thanks Chris. And final question at the back there.
太好了,謝謝克里斯。最後一個問題在後面。
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Henry Tarr - Analyst
Thanks, it's Henry Tarr at Berenberg. Thanks for squeezing me in. As I look at the developments ahead of you, as you get to 2027, it looks like there's potentially a lot that could come on with Bumerangue and the Paleogene and elsewhere. Is that going to be possible within the current CapEx frame?
謝謝,我是貝倫貝格銀行的亨利塔。謝謝你擠出時間幫我。展望未來,到了 2027 年,布馬朗格地層、古近紀地層以及其他地方似乎都可能發生很多事情。在目前的資本支出架構內,這是否可行?
And then as you sort of look at those developments and you're going through the process now as to how you're going to sort of ramp them up, how are you going to try and keep costs sort of under control and manage these developments? Are you going to approach them in a certain way to try and minimize the potential for any cost overruns, et cetera.
然後,當你審視這些發展,並考慮如何逐步推動這些發展時,你打算如何控製成本並管理這些發展?你會採取某種方式來盡量減少成本超支等情況的發生嗎?
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Kate Thomson - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Director
Shall I take the capital frame first, Gordon? And then let you talk about developments and costs.
戈登,我先拿框架好嗎?然後讓你談談開發進度和成本。
Look, Gordon and William challenge me hard regularly on competing for capital inside the frame, as we've got a lot of choice there. We're very comfortable with regard to our [13 to 15] frame for the next two years as we step through the initial phases of the understanding and then progression of these opportunities. No need to change that. We'll update beyond that when we're ready. But Gordon, in terms of cost control?
你看,戈登和威廉經常在爭奪框架內資金方面給我帶來很大的挑戰,因為我們有很多選擇。對於未來兩年的[13至15]框架,我們感到非常滿意,因為我們將逐步了解並推進這些機會的初始階段。無需更改。準備好後,我們會發布更多更新資訊。但戈登,就成本控製而言呢?
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Gordon Birrell - Executive Vice President - Production and Operations
Yeah, and just add on CapEx, the Paleogene's fully funded within our capital frame that we have both projects are FID Kaskida, Tiber, Guadalupe, so fully funded. The big spend on Bumerangue really doesn't kick in until closer to FID, depending on whether we do an early production scheme or not, and we just need to make choices around that.
是的,再加上資本支出,古近紀項目已在我們的資本框架內全額資助,這兩個項目都是最終投資決定(FID),分別是卡斯基達、台伯河和瓜達盧佩河,所以資金已全部到位。Bumerangue 的巨額投入實際上要到接近最終投資決定時才會真正開始,這取決於我們是否採用早期生產方案,而我們只需要圍繞這一點做出選擇。
In terms of cost, I think this is where technology and AI comes in, that the platform or the FPSO of tomorrow won't look like the one of the past, and our most recent platform that we brought online absent GTA in Azerbaijan, the Azeri Central East. Fully controlled from onshore, so much less staff offshore, easier shifts on people, less people exposed to hazards.
就成本而言,我認為這就是技術和人工智慧發揮作用的地方,未來的平台或 FPSO 將與過去的平台或 FPSO 截然不同,而我們最近在阿塞拜疆(阿塞拜疆中部)推出的平台則沒有 GTA。完全由岸上控制,因此海上工作人員少得多,輪班安排也更輕鬆,接觸危險的人員也更少。
So I think that's the future and that will keep costs down. So it's application of technology, continuing to work the supply chain, that's always going to be a feature of upstream where a huge amount of our spend and OpEx is in the supply chain. So I see lots of opportunity actually to keep costs under control as we grow the company.
所以我認為這是未來的發展方向,而且這樣做可以降低成本。因此,技術的應用,以及持續改善供應鏈,始終是上游業務的一個特點,因為我們大量的支出和營運支出都集中在供應鏈上。所以我認為,隨著公司的發展,我們有很多機會來控製成本。
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Craig Marshall - Senior Vice President and Head of Investor Relations
Super, thanks Gordon. I think what we'll do is, we'll close the Q&A on that note.
太好了,謝謝戈登。我想我們會就此結束問答環節。
A big thanks, as ever to everybody for the questions in the room and for those online. We do look forward to meeting with many of you in the coming weeks and coming months. And on behalf of Carol, Kate, and Gordon, our thanks again.
一如既往,非常感謝現場和線上各位提出的問題。我們期待在接下來的幾週和幾個月裡與你們中的許多人見面。我謹代表卡羅爾、凱特和戈登,再次向你們表示感謝。