Bank of Montreal (BMO) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the BMO Financial Group's Q2 2024 Earnings Release and Conference Call for May 29, 2024. Your host for today is Christine Viau. Please go ahead.

    早安,歡迎參加 2024 年 5 月 29 日舉行的 BMO 金融集團 2024 年第二季財報發布和電話會議。請繼續。

  • Christine Viau - Head of IR

    Christine Viau - Head of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning. We will begin the call with remarks from Darryl White, BMO's CEO; followed by Tayfun Tuzun, our Chief Financial Officer; and Piyush Agrawal, our Chief Risk Officer.

    謝謝你,早安。我們將首先由 BMO 執行長 Darryl White 致詞;其次是我們的財務長 Tayfun Tuzun;以及我們的首席風險長 Piyush Agrawal。

  • Also present today to take questions are Ernie Johannson, Head of BMO North American Personal Business Banking; Nadim Hirji, Head of BMO Commercial Banking; Alan Tannenbaum, Head of BMO Capital Markets; and Deland Kamanga, Head of BMO Wealth Management; and Darrel Hackett, BMO U.S. CEO.

    今天出席並接受提問的還有 BMO 北美個人商業銀行業務主管 Ernie Johannson; Nadim Hirji,BMO 商業銀行業務主管; Alan Tannenbaum,BMO 資本市場主管; BMO 財富管理主管 Deland Kamanga;以及 BMO 美國執行長 Darrel Hackett。

  • As noted on Slide 2, forward-looking statements may be made during this call, which involve assumptions that have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these statements.

    如投影片 2 所示,本次電話會議期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述,其中涉及具有固有風險和不確定性的假設。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。

  • I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results. Management measures performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance.

    我還要提醒聽眾,該銀行使用非公認會計準則財務指標來得出調整後的結果。管理層在報告和調整的基礎上衡量績效,並認為兩者都有助於評估基本業務績效。

  • Darryl and Tayfun will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks unless otherwise noted. I will now turn this call over to Darryl.

    除非另有說明,達裡爾和泰豐將在演講中提及調整後的結果。我現在將把這通電話轉給達裡爾。

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced adjusted net income of $2 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.59, with a $0.04 increase in our dividend, up 5% over last year.

    謝謝克里斯汀,大家早安。今天,我們宣布調整後淨利潤為 20 億美元,調整後每股收益為 2.59 美元,股息增加 0.04 美元,比去年增長 5%。

  • We achieved strong pre-provision pretax earnings growth of 7% from last year, driven by continued momentum in Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, and strengthening performance in our Capital Markets and Wealth businesses.

    在加拿大個人和商業銀行業務持續成長動能以及資本市場和財富業務業績增強的推動下,我們的撥備前稅前獲利較去年實現了 7% 的強勁成長。

  • Canadian P&C delivered record revenue, up 13% year-over-year with industry-leading growth in customer acquisition, contributing to market share gains. We've seen strong momentum from newcomers to Canada, up 35% compared with last year due to the success of BMO's new start program, pre-arrival digital tools and advice, all aimed at helping new Canadians make real financial progress.

    加拿大財產與意外險 (Canadian P&C) 的收入創下歷史新高,同比增長 13%,客戶獲取量增長行業領先,為市場份額的增長做出了貢獻。由於 BMO 新移民計劃、抵達前數位工具和建議的成功,我們看到了加拿大新移民的強勁勢頭,與去年相比增長了 35%,所有這些都旨在幫助加拿大新移民取得真正的財務進步。

  • BMO Capital Markets had strong PPPT of $642 million, within the range we have guided to and up 21% from last year, driven by good client activity and record results in debt underwriting. We met our commitment to positive operating leverage this quarter, which was very strong at 3%. Expenses were down from last year and from last quarter from the achievement of the Bank of the West cost synergies and a large portion of the incremental operational efficiency savings we announced last year. We remain focused on delivering positive operating leverage for the full year.

    BMO 資本市場的 PPPT 強勁,達 6.42 億美元,在我們指導的範圍內,比去年增長 21%,這得益於良好的客戶活動和創紀錄的債務承銷業績。本季我們兌現了對積極營運槓桿的承諾,達到 3%,非常強勁。由於西方銀行成本協同效應的實現以及我們去年宣布的增量營運效率節省的很大一部分,費用比去年和上個季度有所下降。我們仍然專注於全年提供積極的營運槓桿。

  • Credit risk, while elevated from last quarter is well managed in what continues to be a challenging environment for many of our customers, where some individuals and businesses are being impacted by prolonged higher interest rates and a slowing economy. We now expect somewhat fewer and delayed rate cuts this year in both Canada and the U.S., with the Bank of Canada expected to begin lowering rates this summer and the Fed in the fall at a moderated pace.

    信用風險雖然較上季度有所上升,但在對我們的許多客戶來說仍然充滿挑戰的環境中得到了很好的管理,一些個人和企業正受到長期高利率和經濟放緩的影響。我們現在預計加拿大和美國今年的降息幅度將有所減少且推遲,預計加拿大央行將在今年夏天開始降息,聯準會將在秋季以溫和的速度降息。

  • Our balance sheet is stronger than ever, with the growing core deposit base, a CET1 ratio of 13.1% and prudent loan loss provisions. Since Q2 of 2023, which was the first quarter after the closing of the Bank of the West acquisition, we have effectively and quickly rebuilt our liquidity and capital positions. During that period, we added $48 billion in customer deposits, kept our liquidity and funding ratios stable and added a full 90 basis points to our CET1 ratio, positioning us very well for capital allocation optionality heading into 2025.

    我們的資產負債表比以往任何時候都更加強勁,核心存款基礎不斷增長,CET1 比率達到 13.1%,貸款損失準備金也審慎。自 2023 年第二季(即西方銀行收購完成後的第一季)以來,我們有效且快速地重建了我們的流動性和資本部位。在此期間,我們增加了480 億美元的客戶存款,保持了流動性和融資比率的穩定,並將我們的CET1 比率足足增加了90 個基點,使我們在進入2025 年之前的資本配置選擇上處於有利地位。

  • Our U.S. businesses continue to be a key differentiator for BMO, with our U.S. segment contributing 45% to the bank's earnings and a significant driver of long-term growth. We have a strong foundation, building on our position as a top 10 U.S. bank, with a presence in 14 of the top 25 MSAs and a leading market share in businesses like RV/Marine, Equipment Finance and Wine & Spirits, we are competing from a position of strength.

    我們的美國業務仍然是 BMO 的關鍵差異化因素,我們的美國業務為該銀行的獲利貢獻了 45%,也是長期成長的重要推動力。我們擁有堅實的基礎,以美國排名前10 的銀行的地位為基礎,在排名前25 的MSA 中的14 個中擁有業務,並且在房車/船舶、設備金融和葡萄酒與烈酒等業務領域擁有領先的市場份額,我們的競爭來自實力地位。

  • Since March of last year, the U.S. banking industry has experienced more muted loan growth and intensified deposit competition as the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, BMO's strategy hasn't changed. We're building clear competitive advantages in a highly fragmented market structure. And as a result, we've delivered resilient performance ahead of U.S. regional bank competitors, reflecting our deep experience competing in this market, the expanded scale of our business and strong execution of cost savings.

    自去年3月以來,隨著聯準會持續實施量化緊縮政策,美國銀行業的貸款成長更加疲軟,存款競爭加劇。同時,BMO的策略也沒有改變。我們正在高度分散的市場結構中建立明顯的競爭優勢。因此,我們領先於美國區域銀行競爭對手,實現了富有彈性的業績,反映出我們在該市場的豐富競爭經驗、業務規模的擴大以及成本節約方面的強有力執行。

  • Pre-provision pretax earnings in our U.S. segment exceeded $1 billion for the fifth consecutive quarter, growing 7% over last year, well above peer averages. Over the last 4 quarters, we've grown deposits, we've seen stability in commercial lending and we've managed margins.

    我們美國業務的撥備前稅前獲利連續第五個季度超過 10 億美元,比去年增長 7%,遠高於同業平均。在過去的四個季度中,我們的存款有所增加,商業貸款保持穩定,並且我們管理了利潤率。

  • Brand recognition is strong, having achieved a meaningful share of voice in California and surpassing our targets for awareness and consideration leading to good customer acquisition. In retail, in particular, we've improved branch productivity in the new West markets by 17% since the beginning of the fiscal year, complemented by strong digital sales and digital adoption. March was a record new high for new business generation across the retail and commercial businesses, including record client referrals. In Commercial Banking, we've retained over 90% of our clients post conversion, and we're now building our base with good new client acquisition. We're unlocking cross-sell opportunities and expanding in key verticals. For example, in our Wine & Spirits sector, our combined teams are exporting expertise from the U.S. West Coast to grow and better serve clients in the Canadian winery market, while bringing M&A expertise to our U.S. clients with 5 completed or underway deals.

    品牌認知度很高,在加州獲得了有意義的話語權,並超越了我們的認知和考慮目標,從而獲得了良好的客戶。特別是在零售業,自本財年開始以來,我們將新西方市場的分公司生產力提高了 17%,並輔以強勁的數位銷售和數位化採用。 3 月零售和商業業務的新業務產生量創下歷史新高,其中包括創紀錄的客戶推薦。在商業銀行業務中,我們在轉換後保留了超過 90% 的客戶,並且我們現在正在透過良好的新客戶獲取來建立我們的基礎。我們正在釋放交叉銷售機會並在關鍵垂直領域進行擴張。例如,在我們的葡萄酒和烈酒領域,我們的合併團隊正在從美國西海岸輸出專業知識,以發展和更好地服務加拿大酒莊市場的客戶,同時為我們的美國客戶帶來併購專業知識,完成了5 筆已完成或正在進行的交易。

  • We're also leveraging our leading North American Treasury Management and Payment Solutions. The capabilities we offer are not easily replicated and continue to be enhanced, including seamless access to FX trading capabilities and cross-border money movement. Clients that bank with us on both sides of the border have deeper relationships with over 10% higher revenue and 30% higher deposits. While the overall environment may continue to constrain revenue growth in the near term, we continue to invest to build on our early success and capture profitable market share and create value for the long term.

    我們也利用我們領先的北美財務管理和支付解決方案。我們提供的功能不易複製並不斷增強,包括無縫存取外匯交易功能和跨境資金流動。在邊境兩側透過我們開展銀行業務的客戶擁有更深厚的關係,收入增加了 10% 以上,存款增加了 30% 以上。雖然短期內整體環境可能繼續限制收入成長,但我們將繼續投資,以鞏固我們早期的成功,佔領可獲利的市場份額,並創造長期價值。

  • Our digital-first strategy is an important driver of our growth aspirations, and we've empowered our teams to develop and deploy leading digital solutions that drive tangible customer and business value. We're using agile practices to accelerate time to market, deploying increasingly sophisticated data and analytics, including AI and leveraging cloud engineering to drive modernization and deliver more, faster with greater quality and security. Cloud computing is a critical enabler for business transformation across BMO, and we're seeing meaningful business benefits. We're modernizing legacy wealth infrastructure within the cloud and have invested in industry-leading workflow tools in capital markets to increase efficiencies and deliver better customer experiences.

    我們的數位優先策略是我們成長願望的重要驅動力,我們授權我們的團隊開發和部署領先的數位解決方案,以推動有形的客戶和業務價值。我們正在使用敏捷實踐來加快上市時間,部署日益複雜的數據和分析(包括人工智慧),並利用雲端工程來推動現代化,並以更高的品質和安全性更快地交付更多產品。雲端運算是整個 BMO 業務轉型的關鍵推動因素,我們看到了有意義的商業利益。我們正在對雲端中的傳統財富基礎設施進行現代化改造,並在資本市場上投資了業界領先的工作流程工具,以提高效率並提供更好的客戶體驗。

  • In retail banking, we've delivered 2 million AI-enabled conversations with BMO Assist and over 80 million BMO Insights to help our customers better manage their finances. As a result, we're not only being recognized with our clients' trust and business, but this quarter, BMO ranked among Fast Company's list of the World's Most Innovative Companies of 2024, the only Canadian or U.S. bank recognized out of more than 600 winning organizations.

    在零售銀行業務中,我們已透過 BMO Assist 提供了 200 萬次基於人工智慧的對話以及超過 8000 萬次 BMO Insights,以幫助我們的客戶更好地管理其財務。因此,我們不僅獲得了客戶的信任和業務認可,而且本季度,BMO 還躋身 Fast Company 2024 年全球最具創新力公司名單,是 600 多家銀行中唯一一家獲此殊榮的加拿大或美國銀行獲獎組織。

  • At the heart of BMO's culture is our commitment to ethical business practices, including a responsible approach to AI development that guides the execution of our strategy to strengthen and grow our bank. This quarter, we were again recognized by the Ethisphere Institute as one of the world's most ethical companies for the seventh consecutive year, an important differentiator for our bank.

    BMO 文化的核心是我們對道德商業實踐的承諾,包括對人工智慧開發採取負責任的方法,指導我們加強和發展銀行的策略的執行。本季度,我們連續第七年被道德村協會 (Ethisphere Institute) 評為全球最具道德的公司之一,這是我們銀行的一個重要優勢。

  • I'll now turn it over to Tayfun.

    現在我將把它交給 Tayfun。

  • Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

    Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

  • Thank you, Darryl. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My comments will start on Slide 10.

    謝謝你,達裡爾。早安,感謝您加入我們。我的評論將從幻燈片 10 開始。

  • Second quarter reported EPS was $2.36 and net income was $1.9 billion. Adjusting items are shown on Slide 38 and included the after-tax impact of the incremental FDIC special assessment of $50 million. The remainder of my comments will focus on adjusted results.

    第二季每股收益為 2.36 美元,淨利為 19 億美元。調整項目如投影片 38 所示,其中包括增量 FDIC 特別評估 5,000 萬美元的稅後影響。我的其餘評論將集中在調整後的結果。

  • Adjusted EPS was $2.59, down from $2.89 last year, and net income was $2 billion, down 7%. PPPT increased 7%, driven by strong performance in Canadian P&C, Capital Markets and Wealth Management, partially offset by a decline in U.S. P&C, where loan demand continues to be muted while deposit pricing remains very competitive.

    調整後每股收益為 2.59 美元,低於去年的 2.89 美元,淨利潤為 20 億美元,下降 7%。 PPPT 成長了7%,主要受到加拿大財產和意外險、資本市場和財富管理業務強勁表現的推動,但部分被美國財產和意外險的下降所抵消,美國財產險和意外險的貸款需求持續低迷,而存款定價仍然非常有競爭力。

  • Revenue was up 2% and expenses decreased 1% with good operating leverage of 3%. We delivered on our commitment to positive operating leverage this quarter as the benefit of our efficiency initiatives offset the impact of lower revenue growth.

    營收成長 2%,支出下降 1%,營運槓桿率良好,為 3%。本季我們兌現了對積極營運槓桿的承諾,因為我們的效率措施的好處抵消了收入成長放緩的影響。

  • PPPT growth was offset by an increase in PCL, which Piyush will speak to in his remarks.

    PPPT 的成長被 PCL 的成長所抵消,Piyush 將在演講中談到 PCL。

  • Moving to Slide 11. Our balance sheet remains well diversified with solid loan and deposit growth. Average loans grew 4% year-over-year, excluding the impact of last quarter's RV loan portfolio sale and the wind down of the indirect auto book.

    轉向投影片 11。平均貸款年增 4%,不包括上季房車貸款組合銷售和間接汽車帳簿縮減的影響。

  • Consumer loans were up 7%, and business and government loans were up 2% with good growth in Canadian P&C and Capital Markets, partially offset by lower commercial lending in U.S. P&C.

    消費者貸款成長 7%,企業和政府貸款成長 2%,加拿大財產和意外保險和資本市場的良好成長,部分被美國財產和意外險商業貸款的下降所抵銷。

  • Average customer deposits increased 6%, primarily from balanced growth in Canadian P&C and Capital Markets.

    平均客戶存款成長 6%,主要得益於加拿大財產保險和資本市場的平衡成長。

  • Turning to Slide 12. On an ex-trading basis, net interest income was down 1% from the prior year due to lower margins and was down 2% sequentially due to the impact of fewer days in the quarter. The decline in trading net interest income was offset in noninterest revenue. Compared with last quarter, NIM was modestly lower by 2 basis points. In Canadian P&C, the impact of lower deposit margins was offset by higher loan margins and favorable balance sheet mix, with NIM up 3 basis points. We expect NIM in Canadian P&C to tighten during the second half of the year due to the BA migration and continued deposit competition.

    轉向投影片 12。交易淨利息收入的下降被非利息收入所抵銷。與上季相比,淨利差小幅下降2個基點。在加拿大財產和意外險方面,較低的存款利潤率的影響被較高的貸款利潤率和有利的資產負債表組合所抵消,淨息差上升了 3 個基點。由於銀行遷移和持續的存款競爭,我們預計下半年加拿大財產和意外險的淨利差將收緊。

  • In U.S. P&C, lower deposit margins drove a 10 basis point reduction in NIM. Although we expect deposit competition to continue in the U.S., the quarterly impact on NIM should be more modest.

    在美國財產和意外險領域,存款保證金下降導致淨利差下降 10 個基點。儘管我們預期美國的存款競爭將持續,但對淨利差的季度影響應該較小。

  • Although the deposit environment is competitive in both countries and migration to higher rate deposits continues at a decelerating pace, we maintain our expectation of relative full bank margin stability for the remainder of the year.

    儘管兩國的存款環境都具有競爭性,並且向更高利率存款的遷移繼續減速,但我們維持今年剩餘時間銀行保證金相對穩定的預期。

  • Moving to Slide 13. Expenses declined, driven by the continued progress on enterprise operational efficiencies we began in the third quarter of last year, and the full realization of Bank of the West cost synergies. While we achieved positive operating leverage this quarter and expect the same for the remaining 2 quarters of the year and for the full year, we are seeing profitable opportunities to capture market share in both Canada and the U.S. and will invest accordingly.

    轉到投影片 13。雖然我們本季實現了正營運槓桿,並預計今年剩餘兩個季度和全年也將實現這一目標,但我們看到了在加拿大和美國佔領市場份額的獲利機會,並將進行相應的投資。

  • Turning to Slide 14. Our capital position has strengthened with a CET1 ratio of 13.1%, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, driven by internal capital generation, the final quarter of common shares issued under the dividend reinvestment plan and lower source currency RWA, as lower market risk was partially offset by higher credit risk.

    轉向幻燈片14。季度上升30 個基點,因為較低的市場風險被較高的信用風險部分抵消。

  • Our capital outlook for the rest of the year remains strong and is likely to remain above our management target.

    我們今年剩餘時間的資本前景依然強勁,並可能繼續高於我們的管理目標。

  • Moving to the operating groups and starting on Slide 15. Canadian P&C net income was up 7% year-over-year driven by strong PPPT performance, up 17%, partially offset by higher PCLs.

    轉向營運小組,從幻燈片 15 開始。

  • Record revenue of $2.8 billion was up 13%, driven by higher net interest income, reflecting both solid balanced growth and improved margins and higher noninterest revenue, including the acquisition of AIR MILES. Expenses were up 9%, reflecting the inclusion of AIR MILES and higher technology costs.

    受淨利息收入增加的推動,創紀錄的 28 億美元收入成長了 13%,反映出穩健的平衡成長、利潤率的提高以及非利息收入的增加(包括收購 AIR MILES)。費用成長了 9%,反映出 AIR MILES 的包含和更高的技術成本。

  • Loans were up 5% with good growth in mortgages and commercial loans, and deposits were up 11%, reflecting continued growth in term products across both consumer and commercial clients.

    貸款成長 5%,抵押貸款和商業貸款成長良好,存款成長 11%,反映出消費者和商業客戶的定期產品持續成長。

  • Moving to U.S. P&C on Slide 16. My comments here will speak to the U.S. dollar performance. Net income was down 25% from the prior year with lower revenue and higher PCLs, partially offset by lower expenses. Revenue was down 7% driven by lower net interest income due to a 23 basis point reduction in margins, which is consistent with industry trends. Noninterest revenue decreased 11% as higher M&A advisory fees in Commercial Banking were offset by lower deposit fees in Personal and Business Banking.

    轉向幻燈片 16 上的美國財產險和意外險。由於收入減少和 PCL 增加,淨利潤比上年下降 25%,但部分被費用減少所抵消。由於利潤率下降 23 個基點,淨利息收入下降,導致收入下降 7%,這與行業趨勢一致。非利息收入下降 11%,原因是商業銀行業務較高的併購諮詢費用被個人和商業銀行業務較低的存款費用所抵銷。

  • Expenses were down 6%, reflecting good expense management, including cost synergies and operational efficiencies.

    費用下降了 6%,反映出良好的費用管理,包括成本綜效和營運效率。

  • Loans were up 1%, excluding the impact of the RV loan portfolio sale last quarter. Deposits remained relatively stable, with strong growth in term and money markets, offsetting decreases in noninterest-bearing balances.

    扣除上季房車貸款組合出售的影響,貸款成長 1%。存款維持相對穩定,期限和貨幣市場強勁成長,抵消了無息餘額的下降。

  • Moving to Slide 17. BMO Wealth Management net income was up 33% from last year. Wealth and asset management revenue was up 4%, reflecting good operating performance, with client asset growth and stronger markets offsetting lower net interest income due to lower deposits and margins.

    轉向幻燈片 17。財富和資產管理收入成長 4%,反映出良好的營運業績,客戶資產成長和市場走強抵消了存款和利潤率下降導致的淨利息收入下降。

  • Insurance revenue increased from last year due to changes in portfolio positioning during the transition to IFRS 17 and was up $21 million from last quarter due to the impact of favorable changes in interest rates on investment results. Expense growth of 1% reflected higher revenue-based costs, which were largely offset by the benefit of efficiency initiatives.

    由於向 IFRS 17 過渡期間投資組合定位發生變化,保險收入較去年增加,由於利率變化對投資績效的有利影響,保險收入較上季增加 2,100 萬美元。 1% 的支出成長反映了基於​​收入的成本增加,但這在很大程度上被效率措施的好處所抵消。

  • Moving to Slide 18. BMO Capital Markets net income was up 23% year-over-year, reflecting strong PPPT performance of $642 million in the quarter, consistent with our guidance, partially offset by higher PCLs.

    轉向幻燈片 18。

  • Revenue in Global Markets was up 8%, primarily due to improved market conditions driving higher interest rate trading. Investment in corporate banking revenue was up 1% as strong debt underwriting fees were mostly offset by lower advisory fees. Expenses were down 3% due to a legal provision in the prior year.

    全球市場收入成長 8%,主要是由於市場狀況改善推動了交易利率上升。企業銀行業務投資收入成長 1%,因為強勁的債務承銷費用大部分被較低的諮詢費用所抵銷。由於前一年的法律規定,費用下降了 3%。

  • Turning now to Slide 19. Corporate Services net loss was $244 million, compared with $63 million in the prior year and $316 million in the prior quarter. The decline in quarter-over-quarter loss was in line with our expectation and the increase relative to last year was driven by the lower net accretion of purchase accounting fair value marks as well as impact of treasury-related activities.

    現在轉向投影片 19。季度虧損的下降符合我們的預期,相對於去年的成長是由於購買會計公允價值標記淨增值較低以及財務相關活動的影響所推動的。

  • To conclude, this quarter, our revenues improved, and our expenses declined in line with our expectations. The power of our franchise is evident in our ability to deliver positive operating leverage while investing in future growth opportunities.

    總而言之,本季我們的收入有所改善,支出有所下降,符合我們的預期。我們的特許經營權的力量顯而易見,我們有能力在投資未來成長機會的同時提供積極的營運槓桿。

  • We have built strategic flexibility as a competitive advantage that relies on the strength of our operational resilience and business and geographic diversity, and we expect our financial performance to reflect that strength as we move to a more supportive economic and market environment.

    我們已將戰略靈活性作為一種競爭優勢,依賴我們的營運彈性以及業務和地理多樣性的實力,我們預計,隨著我們轉向更具支持性的經濟和市場環境,我們的財務表現將反映這一優勢。

  • I will now turn it over to Piyush.

    現在我將把它交給Piyush。

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Thank you, Tayfun, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 21. The credit themes we've been seeing over the last several quarters continue to play out as the higher level of interest rates and slowing economic activity are reflected in credit migration and higher impaired loss rates.

    謝謝你,Tayfun,大家早安。從投影片 21 開始。

  • The total provision for credit losses was $705 million or 44 basis points, up from 38 basis points last quarter. Impaired provisions were $658 million or 41 basis points, up from 29 basis points last quarter. Given the environment, we continue to manage our portfolios closely as per a long track record of good performance through cycles.

    信貸損失撥備總額為 7.05 億美元,即 44 個基點,高於上季的 38 個基點。減損準備金為 6.58 億美元,即 41 個基點,高於上季的 29 個基點。在這種環境下,我們將繼續根據週期內良好業績的長期記錄來密切管理我們的投資組合。

  • In Canada, the increasing trend in credit card delinquencies and elevated consumer insolvencies over the last number of quarters have resulted in impaired losses of $247 million, up $44 million from prior quarter. We continue to take actions to manage losses within these portfolios, including pre-delinquency engagement with customers who are most vulnerable to payment stress.

    在加拿大,過去幾季信用卡拖欠率的上升趨勢和消費者破產率的上升導致減損損失達 2.47 億加元,比上一季增加 4,400 萬加元。我們繼續採取行動來管理這些投資組合中的損失,包括與最容易受到付款壓力影響的客戶進行拖欠前接觸。

  • Our residential portfolio continues to perform well, including renewing customers and the amount of variable rate loans and negative amortization declined further this quarter, down 34% year-to-date. U.S. retail impaired loan losses was $44 million, down $36 million from prior quarter.

    我們的住宅投資組合繼續表現良好,包括更新客戶,可變利率貸款和負攤銷金額本季進一步下降,今年迄今下降了 34%。美國零售減損貸款損失為 4,400 萬美元,比上一季減少 3,600 萬美元。

  • Our commercial portfolio remains well diversified across sectors and geographies. Canadian commercial impaired loan provisions were $48 million, up $14 million from last quarter. U.S. commercial impaired provisions were $244 million, up $141 million. Provisions primarily came from commercial real estate, transportation and services sectors. Commercial real estate, including office, is performing in line with our expectations and we maintain strong coverage. But given the rate environment, we do expect modest provisions going forward. Capital market impaired losses were $61 million, primarily driven by one idiosyncratic account in the insurance sector.

    我們的商業投資組合在各個行業和地區仍然保持多元化。加拿大商業減損貸款準備金為 4,800 萬加元,較上季增加 1,400 萬加元。美國商業減損撥備為 2.44 億美元,增加 1.41 億美元。撥備主要來自商業不動產、交通運輸及服務業。包括辦公室在內的商業房地產的表現符合我們的預期,並且我們保持了強勁的覆蓋範圍。但考慮到利率環境,我們確實預期未來撥備將適度。資本市場減損損失為 6,100 萬美元,主要是由保險業的一個特殊帳戶造成的。

  • On Slide 24, our business and government portfolio continues to be well structured and well secured. While the impact of higher rates has resulted in negative credit migration, over half of the portfolio continues to be investment grade with low impairment levels of 1%.

    在投影片 24 上,我們的業務和政府投資組合仍然結構良好且安全。雖然利率上升的影響導致了負信用遷移,但超過一半的投資組合仍為投資級別,減損水平較低,僅為 1%。

  • Moving to Slide 22, performing provision for credit losses of $47 million primarily reflected portfolio credit migration and uncertainty in credit conditions, partially offset by an improvement in the macroeconomic outlook. Having added to performing allowances for the last 8 quarters, we are comfortable that our total performing allowance of $3.7 billion continues to provide appropriate coverage over performing loans at 56 basis points.

    轉向投影片 22,為信貸損失準備金 4,700 萬美元主要反映了投資組合信貸遷移和信貸狀況的不確定性,但部分被宏觀經濟前景的改善所抵消。在過去 8 個季度增加了履約準備金後,我們感到滿意的是,我們 37 億美元的履約準備金總額繼續為 56 個基點的履約貸款提供適當的保障。

  • Turning to Slide 23 on impaired loans and formations. Impaired formations increased to about $2 billion with all of the increase in business and government where high rates are continuing to feed through to higher impairment. Gross impaired loans increased approximately $5.3 billion or 79 basis points, with increases across most industries, most notably in services.

    轉向關於減損貸款和形成的幻燈片 23。隨著商業和政府部門的增加,受損資產增加至約 20 億美元,而高利率繼續導致更高的受損。總減損貸款增加了約 53 億美元或 79 個基點,大多數產業都有增加,尤其是服務業。

  • To conclude, we expect that the delay in Central Bank easing of monetary policy and slowing economic activity could keep impaired provisions at around these levels over the next couple of quarters. Given the quality and diversification of our portfolio, allowance coverage and strong risk management capabilities, we remain well positioned to manage the current environment and emerging risks.

    總而言之,我們預期央行延遲放鬆貨幣政策和經濟活動放緩可能會使未來幾季的減損準備金維持在這些水準左右。鑑於我們投資組合的品質和多元化、準備金覆蓋範圍和強大的風險管理能力,我們仍然能夠很好地管理當前環境和新出現的風險。

  • I will now turn the call back to the operator for the Q&A portion of this call.

    我現在將把電話轉回給接線員,以進行本次電話的問答部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first question is from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • I guess, Piyush, for you, just on the comments around impaired PCLs. So one, impaired PCLs of 41 basis points in the second quarter, should we assume that the guidance, I think it was around low 30s impaired PCLs for the year, that's shifting more into the low 40s?

    我想,Piyush,對你來說,只是關於受損 PCL 的評論。那麼,第二季度受損的 PCL 為 41 個基點,我們是否應該假設指導,我認為今年受損的 PCL 大約在 30 左右,更多地轉向 40 左右?

  • And then just talk to us around your visibility on credit. I heard you say higher rates. But honestly, we expected higher rates for a while, higher for longer. I'm just trying to understand the risk if we don't get material rate cuts over the next 12 to 18 months, is the risk that impaired PCLs could drift even higher? Just give us a sense of your visibility on credit and your comfort level that where impaired PCLs could peak out absent like a full-blown recession.

    然後與我們討論您的信用知名度。我聽說你說利率比較高。但老實說,我們預計利率會在一段時間內更高,而且會持續更長一段時間。我只是想了解,如果我們在未來 12 至 18 個月內沒有大幅降息,受損 PCL 的風險是否會進一步上升?只需讓我們了解您的信用可見度以及您的舒適度,受損的 PCL 可能會像全面衰退一樣達到頂峰。

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes. Ebrahim, thank you for the question. When we gave the guidance of lower 30s, it was obviously predicated on our assessment of what monetary policy will be. And if you remember in the same guidance we said, we were expecting 3 to 4 rate cuts in both Canada and the U.S. and also said there will be some intra-quarter volatility, just given the business mix we have on business and government.

    是的。易卜拉欣,謝謝你的提問。當我們給予 30 歲以下的指導時,這顯然是基於我們對貨幣政策的評估。如果你還記得我們在同一指導方針中所說的,我們預計加拿大和美國都會降息 3 到 4 次,並且還表示,考慮到我們在企業和政府方面的業務組合,季度內將會出現一些波動。

  • That, of course, has changed with the restrictive monetary policy, which I think is now getting moved out quite a bit. So as Darryl said in his comments, it's probably one, probably zero in the U.S., probably 2 or 3 in Canada. That then changes the psychology or the sentiment of the consumer.

    當然,隨著限制性貨幣政策的實施,這種情況已經發生了變化,我認為現在限制性貨幣政策已經被取消了很多。正如達裡爾在評論中所說,在美國可能是 1,可能是 0,在加拿大可能是 2 或 3。這就會改變消費者的心理或情緒。

  • What you see today at 41 basis points, we are guiding around the same range for a couple of reasons. I can break it down. You're going to see -- you've seen unemployment pick up about 5.3% same time last year to around 6.3%, going up to 6.5% in Canada. And so that is going to have an impact, especially on our unsecured portfolios in Canada. I think the mortgage consumer is very resilient. That continues, while there'll be an uptick in delinquencies, HPI is strong. And so we're figuring out or taking into account what unemployment will do to the unsecured portfolio. And then you have the exogenous factor of Canadian insolvencies or proposals that have been and continue to be surprisingly higher than general expectation.

    今天您所看到的 41 個基點,基於以下幾個原因,我們的指導價處於相同的範圍內。我可以把它分解。你會看到——去年同期失業率上升了約 5.3%,達到 6.3% 左右,加拿大的失業率高達 6.5%。因此,這將會產生影響,尤其是對我們在加拿大的無擔保投資組合。我認為抵押貸款消費者非常有彈性。這種情況仍在繼續,儘管拖欠率將會上升,但 HPI 依然強勁。因此,我們正在計算或考慮失業會對無擔保投資組合產生什麼影響。然後還有加拿大破產或提案的外生因素,這些因素已經並將繼續令人驚訝地高於普遍預期。

  • The second piece I would say is around the wholesale. And if I back up to where we are in this quarter, there are 2 or 3 underlying trends that I would probably call out. One, loan growth has remained muted. And this is not unique to BMO. This is, in fact, a market phenomena. And so you get about, I would say, a headwind into that impaired portfolio by 2 or 3 basis points when loan growth is muted. And then as I was going through the results you saw, we also have 2 or 3 large credits, one especially, I called out in Capital Markets. And to put that in context, $16 million or $17 million of impaired can give you a basis point. So when you get $50 million or $60 million in Capital Markets, that's 3 or 4 basis points. So you take the 3, 4 basis points there in the loan growth, you would really get down from 41 to 35, which is just, again, a starting point of giving you a sense of how we performed this quarter.

    我要說的第二塊是圍繞批發的。如果我回到本季的情況,我可能會指出 2 或 3 個基本趨勢。第一,貸款成長依然低迷。這並不是 BMO 獨有的。這其實是一種市場現象。因此,我想說,當貸款成長乏力時,受損的投資組合就會受到 2 或 3 個基點的不利影響。然後,當我查看你看到的結果時,我們還有 2 或 3 個大的功勞,尤其是其中之一,我在資本市場中指出。考慮到這一點,1600 萬美元或 1700 萬美元的受損可以給你一個基點。因此,當你在資本市場獲得 5000 萬或 6000 萬美元時,那就是 3 或 4 個基點。因此,如果貸款成長增加 3、4 個基點,您實際上會從 41 下降到 35,這只是讓您了解我們本季表現的一個起點。

  • So we did expect rates -- the impact to go up. And that's how we've landed here. But unemployment continues to tick up. We're going to see a little bit of cyclical businesses in our mix of wholesale that may have higher losses, transportation finance being one of them. And I can get into more detail, but just to give you the perspective of why we are guiding in the similar range, again, with that caveat that there will be volatility because 2 or 3 large names can move that number around by 3 or 4 basis points.

    所以我們確實預期利率會上升。這就是我們到達這裡的方式。但失業率持續上升。我們將在批發業務中看到一些週期性業務可能會遭受更高的損失,運輸金融就是其中之一。我可以提供更多細節,但只是為了讓您了解為什麼我們在類似的範圍內進行指導,再次警告,將會出現波動,因為 2 或 3 個大牌可以使該數字移動 3 或 4基點。

  • So I hope that's helpful. Of course, going forward, much longer term, I think we'll revert back to our longer-term averages. But that's something we have to see rather than speculate on the rate cycle when that happens, and we'll provide you more guidance as we go along.

    所以我希望這有幫助。當然,從長遠來看,我認為我們將恢復到長期平均。但這是我們必須看到的,而不是在發生這種情況時推測利率週期,我們將在進展中為您提供更多指導。

  • Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

    Ebrahim Huseini Poonawala - MD of United States Equity Research & Head of North American Banks Research

  • Sure. And I'll follow up offline. And just one question for Darryl. Adjusted ROE, 10.9%, absent any improvement in the macro. Can BMO do better than 11% return on equity anytime soon?

    當然。我會線下跟進。我只想問達裡爾一個問題。調整後淨資產收益率為 10.9%,宏觀經濟沒有任何改善。 BMO 能否很快實現超過 11% 的股本回報率?

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Ebrahim, the answer -- the short answer is, yes, I do remind folks that the ROTCE is an important metric for us as well, which is substantially higher than that. But you did hear Tayfun and I talk about continuing to push on positive operating leverage as we go forward. So assuming we can do that, and assuming no change in the macro, I think we can continue to improve on where we are right now. And if there is a change in the macro to the positive, obviously, we think we can do even better.

    Ebrahim,答案 - 簡短的答案是,是的,我確實提醒人們,ROTCE 對我們來說也是一個重要指標,它遠高於此。但你確實聽到泰豐和我談到在我們前進的過程中繼續推動積極的營運槓桿。因此,假設我們能夠做到這一點,並且假設宏觀環境沒有變化,我認為我們可以繼續改進目前的狀況。如果宏觀形勢發生積極變化,顯然我們認為我們可以做得更好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Matthew Lee from Canaccord.

    下一個問題來自 Canaccord 的 Matthew Lee。

  • Matthew James Lee - Analyst

    Matthew James Lee - Analyst

  • When we look at GIL formation, it feels a bit of a step-up from the U.S. service industry, some CRE and wholesale trade. Can you maybe talk to one of that expansion discrete, identifiable clients or if it's more of a broad-based weakness in those industries?

    當我們觀察 GIL 的形成時,感覺有點像美國服務業、一些商業地產和批發貿易的進步。您能否與其中一位離散的、可識別的客戶進行交談,或者這是否是這些行業的一個廣泛的弱點?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Sure. So Matthew, I don't think this is a systemic weakness. In fact, we've been assessing many of these sectors for quite some time. Some of the weakness I talked about was, for example, I'm just probably expanding on the point on transportation. For the last 18 months, you've seen freight rates have remained at an all-time low, volumes haven't picked up. If you look at the American tonnage index, that's been at a low point. And resell values, because of oversupply, have also been impacted.

    當然。所以馬修,我不認為這是一個系統性弱點。事實上,我們對其中許多行業的評估已經有一段時間了。我談到的一些弱點是,例如,我可能只是在交通方面進行擴展。在過去 18 個月中,您可以看到運費一直處於歷史最低水平,但貨運量卻沒有回升。如果你看看美國的噸位指數,你會發現它一直處於低點。由於供應過剩,轉售價值也受到了影響。

  • But a business like transportation, we've been in for 40, 50 years. We've been through several cycles. We managed through several cycles, and we are beginning to see some recovery or flattening out of delinquencies out there.

    但像運輸這樣的行業,我們已經從事了 40、50 年了。我們已經經歷了幾個週期。我們經歷了幾個週期,我們開始看到拖欠率有所恢復或趨於平緩。

  • To your other question around commercial real estate, it's a sector we're focused on. There was one large name this time around in our impairment. I'm actually optimistic to get back a partial recovery over the next few quarters even on that because it's a book we manage. So it wasn't a surprise in our small watch list of names that we've been tracking more closely even after reappraising them every few months, this NIM was within our expectation.

    至於你關於商業房地產的其他問題,這是我們關注的一個領域。這次我們的損失中有一個大人物。事實上,我對在接下來的幾個季度內部分恢復感到樂觀,即使在這一點上,因為這是我們管理的一本書。因此,即使每隔幾個月重新評估一次,我們也會更密切地追蹤我們的小型觀察名單,這並不奇怪,這個 NIM 是在我們的預期之內的。

  • So it is a couple of names and a couple of cyclical sectors in a diversified business, but it's not systemic to anything that I would call out for you.

    因此,這是多元化業務中的幾個名字和幾個週期性部門,但它對於我要為您呼籲的任何事情都不是系統性的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Doug Young from Desjardins Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 Desjardins Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

  • Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

    Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

  • Darryl, I just I want to go back to some of the points you made in your opening comment. You emphasized strong capital and liquidity position. And you stated that BMO is positioned well for capital allocation optionality going into 2025. And I'm just hoping, you can dig into what you're trying to say or what you mean by that statement.

    達裡爾,我只是想回顧一下您在開場評論中提出的一些觀點。您強調了強勁的資本和流動性狀況。您表示,BMO 在進入 2025 年的資本配置選擇方面處於有利位置。

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Sure, Doug. Listen, what I mean by it isn't anything more than what you heard. And when I say that, I look back to a year ago at the end of the quarter after we closed the Bank of the West, I also advised in my opening comments that we've since built 90 basis points on the CET1 ratio. We've built almost $50 billion of deposits on our liquidity. You heard us last quarter announce that we were going to turn the drip off and you saw us today consistent on dividend expectations.

    當然,道格。聽著,我的意思只不過是你聽到的。當我這麼說時,我回顧了一年前,在我們關閉西方銀行之後的季度末,我還在開場白中表示,此後我們已經在 CET1 比率上建立了 90 個基點。我們的流動性已累積了近 500 億美元的存款。您在上個季度聽到我們宣布我們將關閉滴注,並且您今天看到我們對股息預期保持一致。

  • And as I look forward, Doug, over the next couple of quarters, we just see those trends at least stable, if not continuing to improve, and so setting us up for 2025. We feel like we're in a good position in terms of capital allocation. Optionality is exactly the word I used, and that's what I meant, and that goes to all the things we always talk to you about. We'll have, we think, a differentiated position from a capital availability perspective in the U.S., in particular, relative to many of the names we compete against there. And in Canada, we'll be with some of our peers and have lots of optionality to first serve our clients and then to consider other options if the capital continues to accrete beyond our base levels.

    道格,我展望未來幾個季度,我們看到這些趨勢即使沒有繼續改善,至少也保持穩定,因此我們為 2025 年做好了準備。 「選擇性」正是我用的詞,這就是我的意思,這也適用於我們經常與您談論的所有事情。我們認為,從美國的資本可用性角度來看,我們將擁有差異化的地位,特別是相對於我們在那裡競爭的許多公司。在加拿大,我們將與一些同行合作,並有很多選擇權,首先為我們的客戶提供服務,然後如果資本繼續增加超出我們的基本水平,請考慮其他選擇。

  • So that's a good place to be in, and it's quite -- I mean we think at least an impressive track record of progress on those metrics relative to a year ago after completing a large acquisition. That was the point I was trying to make. Is that helpful?

    所以這是一個很好的地方,而且我的意思是,我們認為在完成大規模收購後,相對於一年前,這些指標至少取得了令人印象深刻的進展記錄。這就是我想要表達的觀點。有幫助嗎?

  • Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

    Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

  • It is. I was just trying to kind of maybe find a point on it. Is it meaning that you are at a position to do further M&A? Or would you be more inclined to be more active on buybacks, given the flexibility on the capital side?

    這是。我只是想找一點。這是否意味著你們有能力進行進一步的併購?或者考慮到資本方面的靈活性,您是否會更傾向於更積極地進行回購?

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Yes, no. It's a good question, Doug, and it's hard to be particular in the answer because, as you know, it depends on the circumstance. And as we look at the environment, it continues to be, as we've outlined in our opening comments, a softer environment. In that environment, you're less likely, I think, to pursue M&A relative to having a world view that says the clouds are parting, so that would be an important factor at the time. And it also goes to strategic attractiveness and price and all of the rest of it that we always talk about.

    是的,不是。這是一個很好的問題,道格,很難給出具體的答案,因為如你所知,這取決於具體情況。當我們審視環境時,正如我們在開場評論中所概述的那樣,環境仍然較為溫和。我認為,在這種環境下,相對於擁有一種雲彩正在散去的世界觀,你不太可能追求併購,所以這將是當時的一個重要因素。它還涉及戰略吸引力和價格以及我們經常談論的所有其他內容。

  • So subject to that -- that's kind of my way of saying the M&A environment has to be helpful and constructive. We think when it is helpful and constructive, we are an attractive alternative for many potential candidates, but that doesn't mean you go ahead and do something. You go ahead and do something because it makes sense for shareholders in the aggregate. And if we get to a point where we've got excess capital in '25 and we're not pursuing because things don't make sense, then, of course, buybacks are on the table at some point as we go through '25.

    因此,根據我的說法,併購環境必須是有益的和建設性的。我們認為,當它有幫助和建設性時,我們對許多潛在候選人來說是一個有吸引力的選擇,但這並不意味著你會繼續做某事。你繼續做某件事是因為這對全體股東來說是有意義的。如果我們在 25 年擁有過剩資本,而我們沒有追求,因為事情沒有意義,那麼,當然,當我們經歷 25 年時,回購就會在某個時候擺在桌面上。

  • Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

    Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

  • Okay. And then second, just, I think, in your opening remarks, you talked about positive operating leverage or (inaudible) both talked about positive operating leverage.

    好的。其次,我認為,在您的開場白中,您談到了正經營槓桿,或者(聽不清楚)都談到了正經營槓桿。

  • But Tayfun, you also talked about making investments because you see profitable opportunities to take market share in Canada and the U.S. And I don't think you would make those investments that would take you away from positive operating leverage. I think you've been clear on that. But I'm just curious as to -- I'm just trying to make sure we're not surprised by something. Like can you dig into what those opportunities are? Can you kind of talk about what those investments might be and what that impact that might have on the expense line?

    但是 Tayfun,您也談到了進行投資,因為您看到了在加拿大和美國佔據市場份額的有利可圖的機會,而且我認為您不會進行那些會讓您失去積極運營槓桿的投資。我想你已經說得很清楚了。但我只是好奇——我只是想確保我們不會對某些事情感到驚訝。你能深入研究一下這些機會是什麼嗎?您能否談談這些投資可能是什麼以及可能對費用線產生什麼影響?

  • Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

    Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

  • Yes. It's nothing more than a reference to a number of businesses who are taking market share profitably, both in Canada and then a number of opportunities that we have, including our newly expanded franchise in the U.S., and there will always be pockets where we think that combining our balance sheet strength, capital and liquidity, with the ability to take market share, we'll take advantage of those opportunities.

    是的。這無非是指一些在加拿大獲得可獲利市場份額的企業,以及我們擁有的許多機會,包括我們在美國新擴大的特許經營權,我們認為總會有一些地方結合我們的資產負債表實力、資本和流動性,以及佔領市場份額的能力,我們將利用這些機會。

  • But we believe we can do those even within the guidance of positive operating leverage. That may mean that the expenses may tick up a little bit. But as long as we deliver positive operating leverage, we're quite comfortable leveraging our growth opportunities with smart investments.

    但我們相信,即使在積極的營運槓桿的指導下,我們也可以做到這些。這可能意味著費用可能會略有增加。但只要我們提供積極的營運槓桿,我們就可以透過明智的投資來充分利用我們的成長機會。

  • Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

    Doug Young - Diversified Financials and Insurance Analyst

  • And so there wasn't any 1 or 2 particular opportunities that you wanted to point out?

    那麼您沒有想指出任何一兩個特別的機會嗎?

  • Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

    Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

  • No.

    不。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Meny Grauman from Scotia Capital.

    下一個問題來自 Scotia Capital 的 Meny Grauman。

  • Meny Grauman - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Meny Grauman - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Piyush, I think it's very clear and you highlighted it that the higher for longer rate environment is definitely putting upward pressure on the impaired PCL ratio. But I'm wondering if there are any other factors here worth considering. One factor that I wanted to specifically get your comment on is just collections. How is that tracking relative to expectations? Is there anything there that would explain some of the upward pressure on impaired PCLs as well?

    Piyush,我認為這一點非常明確,您強調了長期利率環境較高肯定會對受損的 PCL 比率帶來上行壓力。但我想知道這裡是否還有其他值得考慮的因素。我想特別徵求您的意見的一個因素是收藏。與預期相比,追蹤情況如何?有沒有什麼可以解釋受損的 PCL 所面臨的一些上行壓力?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes. I think -- so higher for longer, I think everybody is talking about, it's a new normal. And so customers are adjusting to a new normal of higher for longer, all this takes time, and you're seeing some of that come through over here.

    是的。我認為——如此高的持續時間,我想每個人都在談論,這是一種新常態。因此,客戶正在適應更高、更長的新常態,所有這些都需要時間,你會看到其中一些發生在這裡。

  • Specifically on collections, I wouldn't say that collections is getting impacted because of that. The obvious 2 or 3 points is when you haven't lost money in the past, you can't collect enough. So impairments are beginning now and that's going to build the collection inventory for the future. But the second part, which is a challenge for the industry is when it comes through insolvencies or proposals, it's going to take a longer window for collect because you can't collect for the first 4 or 5 years, those are just the way the rules are. So that does have an impact on collections. Other than that, in the normal write-offs, I think our collection window of 1 or 2 years remains as robust as it was even before.

    特別是在收藏方面,我不會說收藏因此而受到影響。明顯的2點或3點是當你過去沒有虧過錢時,你無法收集足夠的錢。因此,減值現在就開始了,這將為未來建立收藏庫存。但第二部分,對行業來說是一個挑戰,當遇到破產或提案時,將需要更長的時間來收取費用,因為你無法在前 4 或 5 年內收取費用,這些就是規則是。所以這確實對收藏有影響。除此之外,在正常沖銷中,我認為我們一兩年的收款窗口仍然像以前一樣強勁。

  • I don't know if Ernie would like to add something here.

    我不知道厄尼是否願意在這裡補充一些東西。

  • Erminia Johannson - Group Head of North American Personal & Business Banking

    Erminia Johannson - Group Head of North American Personal & Business Banking

  • Yes. I was just going to add that we've been very successful in proactive contact to customers, getting in front of the situation for them and helping them navigate, whether that be mortgages or credit cards or any unsecured lending. And what we're finding is the receptivity has been very strong and the performance of those contracts have been very helpful to the customers and ultimately in us being able to navigate and reduce losses. And I think that will continue as the market -- as we talked about earlier, macro environment, interest rates, higher for longer and consumers are facing more cash flow efforts. But efforts are good, and they will continue over the course of the next probably a year as we go forward. .

    是的。我只是想補充一點,我們在主動聯繫客戶、了解他們的情況並幫助他們應對方面非常成功,無論是抵押貸款、信用卡還是任何無擔保貸款。我們發現,接受度非常強,這些合約的履行對客戶非常有幫助,最終使我們能夠應對並減少損失。我認為這種情況將持續下去,因為市場——正如我們之前談到的那樣,宏觀環境、利率持續走高,消費者面臨更多的現金流努力。但努力是好的,隨著我們的前進,這些努力將在接下來的一年中繼續下去。 。

  • Meny Grauman - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Meny Grauman - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • And then maybe just a question for Darryl. Just given the environment, are you seeing any increased regulatory scrutiny on AML processes for BMO, especially in the U.S.? And I, guess sort of a related question, is there a risk of material increase in spending relative to plan because of that?

    也許只是問達裡爾一個問題。鑑於目前的環境,您是否看到對 BMO 反洗錢流程的監管審查有所加強,尤其是在美國?我猜想一個相關的問題是,是否存在因此而導致支出相對於計劃大幅增加的風險?

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Meny, I get it. The short answer is no. Regulatory scrutiny is pretty continuous rather than episodic, I would say. A couple of thoughts come to mind. We've been -- you mentioned in the U.S., we've been operating in the U.S. continuously for decades. We're coming up as it turns out on our 40-year anniversary of the acquisition of the Harris Bank. And all the way through, we've built risk and governance and control infrastructure that would be appropriate for the size of the operations at the time. And now, as we talked to you about before, our programs are subject to ongoing reviews. So when I say it's continuous, that's exactly what it is in the jurisdictions that we operate, including in the U.S., where we transitioned to a category 3 bank. So there was no surprise there.

    梅尼,我明白了。最簡潔的答案是不。我想說,監管審查是相當連續的而不是間歇性的。我想到了一些想法。你提到我們在美國,我們已經在美國連續經營了幾十年。我們即將迎來收購哈里斯銀行 40 週年紀念日。自始至終,我們都建立了適合當時營運規模的風險、治理和控制基礎設施。現在,正如我們之前與您談到的那樣,我們的計劃正在接受持續的審查。因此,當我說它是連續的時,這正是我們經營的司法管轄區的情況,包括在美國,我們在美國轉型為第 3 類銀行。所以這並不奇怪。

  • And just as we believe our AML program is mature and it's effective through that piece, we, of course, remain vigilant. And this goes to your question, I guess, on investment. Risks are elevated, criminals are more sophisticated, as we know and we, therefore, continue to invest and strengthen our practices. But all of that happens, whether it's AML fraud, advanced technologies that we introduced, with the oversight and with the spending envelope that Tayfun outlined earlier in terms of how we look at our business planning. So nothing -- like nothing particularly unusual relative to the environmental factors that I think you're referring to.

    正如我們相信我們的反洗錢計劃已經成熟並且透過該計劃有效一樣,我們當然也保持警惕。我想這牽涉到你關於投資的問題。正如我們所知,風險升高,犯罪分子更加狡猾,因此我們繼續投資並加強我們的做法。但所有這些都發生了,無論是反洗錢詐欺、我們引入的先進技術、監督以及 Tayfun 之前在我們如何看待我們的業務規劃方面概述的支出範圍。因此,與我認為您所指的環境因素相比,沒有什麼特別不尋常的事情。

  • Meny Grauman - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

    Meny Grauman - MD of Financial Services Equity Research & Analyst

  • Nothing additional relative to what you've been doing before?

    與您之前所做的事情相比,沒有額外的事情嗎?

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Correct. It's all in the plan.

    正確的。一切都在計劃之中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from John Aiken from Jefferies.

    下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的約翰艾肯 (John Aiken)。

  • John Aiken - Equity Analyst

    John Aiken - Equity Analyst

  • Just wanted to focus on U.S. deposit growth, given the environment where you've highlighted that it's very competitive. Can you discuss the strategy or the tactics of continuing to pursue the deposit growth in an environment where it is compressing your margins? Is this by bringing in deposits that will hopefully then expand the customer base and be able to build more products? And secondarily, can you talk to how much of that growth was actually driven by your digital platform?

    只是想關注美國存款成長,因為您強調美國存款的競爭非常激烈。您能否討論一下在利潤率受到壓縮的環境下繼續追求存款成長的策略或戰術?是透過引入存款來擴大客戶群並能夠生產更多產品嗎?其次,您能談談有多少成長實際上是由您的數位平台推動的嗎?

  • Erminia Johannson - Group Head of North American Personal & Business Banking

    Erminia Johannson - Group Head of North American Personal & Business Banking

  • It's Ernie. I'll answer that question, John. So a couple of things. One I would say, first of all, I'd see -- I'll do the Personal and Business Banking side, and then I'll turn it to Nadim. But on the Personal and Business Banking side, we have been successful in terms of growing overall deposits relative to the market. You've probably been noticing. The industry has been negative in growth. We have actually had positive growth and really lead in this position.

    是厄尼。我會回答這個問題,約翰。有幾件事。我想說的是,首先,我會看到——我將負責個人和商業銀行業務,然後我會將其交給納迪姆。但在個人和商業銀行業務方面,我們在相對於市場的整體存款成長方面取得了成功。你可能已經注意到了。該行業呈現負成長。我們實際上已經取得了積極的成長,並且在這一領域處於領先地位。

  • It's a function of a couple of things. The mix, the blend that we have happening between, as you stated, new customer growth into the franchise, and we've been particularly pleased with what we've been seeing in our new Western market, and that's driven through a combination of our branches and our digital capabilities, as you referred to.

    這是幾個因素的函數。正如您所說,我們在特許經營中新客戶的成長之間發生了混合,我們對我們在新的西方市場中看到的情況特別滿意,這是透過我們的組合推動的正如您所提到的,分支機構和我們的數位能力。

  • So we have digital capabilities that are on the BMO enterprise banking capability. And in our new markets, in particular, we've been extremely pleased with how we've been performing. About 40% of our sales have been coming in through those on checking and savings accounts, the core franchise as well. So that's a big component of it as well as our attraction factor of acquiring mass affluent customers into our what we call our premier banking offer in the U.S. That allows us to build full relationships and refer to our wealth colleagues.

    因此,我們擁有 BMO 企業銀行業務能力上的數位能力。特別是在我們的新市場中,我們對我們的表現非常滿意。我們大約 40% 的銷售額來自支票和儲蓄帳戶,這也是我們的核心業務。因此,這是其中的一個重要組成部分,也是我們吸引大眾富裕客戶進入我們所謂的美國頂級銀行業務的吸引力因素。

  • On the pricing side, per se, we use, obviously, a number of tactics to be able to optimize. But what we're finding is, as you can imagine, more price competition in general in the U.S. marketplace. But overall, we're seeing the growth in our new customer base as well as just our real focus on full conversations with our customers to ensure that we're also migrating them proactively in some cases to our CD products so that we're, at the whole, keeping our deposit franchise growing. And as I said, it is growing relative to the marketplace.

    顯然,在定價方面,我們使用了多種策略來進行最佳化。但我們發現,正如您可以想像的那樣,美國市場上的價格競爭總體上更加激烈。但總的來說,我們看到了新客戶群的成長,以及我們真正專注於與客戶的全面對話,以確保我們在某些​​情況下也主動將他們遷移到我們的 CD 產品,以便我們,總體而言,我們的存款業務不斷成長。正如我所說,它相對於市場正在成長。

  • And I'll turn it over to Nadim to talk about commercial deposits in the U.S.

    我將把它交給納迪姆談論美國的商業存款

  • Nadim Hirji - Group Head of BMO Commercial Bank - North America

    Nadim Hirji - Group Head of BMO Commercial Bank - North America

  • What I would say on the commercial side is that we've had significant focus on growing deposits overall, and you see that in our Canadian balance sheet. The U.S. is a bit more challenged with the way the macro environment is there, where we see a significantly higher mix shift.

    我想說的是,在商業方面,我們非常注重整體存款的成長,你可以在我們加拿大的資產負債表中看到這一點。美國的宏觀環境面臨更大的挑戰,我們看到了明顯更高的混合轉變。

  • What I will say is that, that mix shift has been going at a decelerating pace in the last few months. And so over the last 3 months, month-over-month, we have seen a deceleration of that mix shift, which is positive. Now with the rates where they are, I still see margin pressure on deposits, it's still a competitive environment. But I do, as Tayfun mentioned, see the level of margin compression dissipating and the mix shift dissipating, which will be a positive to the overall deposit book.

    我要說的是,過去幾個月這種混合轉變的速度一直在減慢。因此,在過去 3 個月裡,我們看到這種混合轉變逐月減速,這是正面的。現在,按照目前的利率,我仍然看到存款的保證金壓力,這仍然是一個競爭環境。但正如 Tayfun 所提到的,我確實看到保證金壓縮水平和混合轉移正在消散,這將對整體存款帳戶產生積極影響。

  • In terms of where we're focusing, one of the things I will say is that we are highly focused on simplifying our Treasury business, making it easier for clients to onboard, making it simpler for our employees to sell the Treasury products, creating bundled pricing, which makes it easier for clients to sign up with us and focusing a lot more on our, what I'll call, the emerging mid-market space, clients with good operating deposits, sole lead relationships, strong ROE, good loan-to-deposit ratio type portfolio. And so we are allocating our resources, capital and focus on to businesses where we can gain that kind of traction. And frankly, beyond deposits gaining opportunities for our Wealth business as well.

    就我們的重點而言,我要說的一件事是,我們高度重視簡化我們的資金業務,讓客戶更容易加入,讓我們的員工更容易銷售資金產品,創建捆綁銷售定價,這使客戶更容易與我們簽約,並更多地關注我們的,我所說的,新興的中端市場空間,客戶擁有良好的經營存款,唯一的牽頭關係,強勁的股本回報率,良好的貸款-存款比率型投資組合。因此,我們正在將資源、資本和重點分配給能夠獲得這種吸引力的企業。坦白說,除了存款之外,我們的財富業務也獲得了機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine from National Bank Financial.

    下一個問題來自國家銀行金融公司的加布里埃爾·德鏈 (Gabriel Dechaine)。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • I want to look at the performing loan book for a minute here, specifically the Stage 2 classifications. So they were around about 11.5%, that your loans were classified as Stage 2 last quarter. That jumped up to 16% this quarter.

    我想在這裡看一下履約貸款書,特別是第二階段的分類。因此,上個季度您的貸款被歸類為第二階段的比例約為 11.5%。本季這一數字躍升至 16%。

  • I'm just wondering what the process is? What's involved in moving loans from Stage 1 to Stage 2? I know technically how it works. But what do you do specifically? Do you think you've gone with a fine-tooth comb and identified which commercial borrowers are on the brink or whatever because of higher rates and that we should see that balance be stable from here on out because that's where the bulk of formations should be emanating from, right?

    我只是想知道流程是什麼?將貸款從第一階段轉移到第二階段涉及什麼?從技術上講我知道它是如何工作的。但你具體做些什麼呢?您是否認為您已經仔細梳理並確定了哪些商業借款人因利率上升而處於邊緣或其他什麼位置,並且我們應該看到從現在開始這種平衡保持穩定,因為這就是大部分形成的地方發出來的,對嗎?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes, Gabe. Thanks for the question. So we're always making a dynamic assessment of our borrowers and even for people who continue to be paying, the assessment really is, is there a change in the credit conditions that may affect future performance? And so our risk team working with the business, as they continue to evaluate customers, both on the retail side and wholesale side, are making the determination. And then based on that, we move customers from Stage 1 to Stage 2. And the impact, as you know, is you go from a 1 year to a lifetime loss. So the performing provision picks that up.

    是的,加布。謝謝你的提問。因此,我們總是對借款人進行動態評估,甚至對於繼續付款的人,評估實際上是,信貸條件是否發生可能影響未來業績的變化?因此,我們的風險團隊與企業合作,在繼續評估零售端和批發端的客戶時,正在做出決定。然後在此基礎上,我們將客戶從第一階段轉移到第二階段。因此表演條款會採納這一點。

  • I think this process has been going on for the last 1.5 years with the rate change cycle that's happened. Both the impact of rates and inflation that affects our clients' earnings has a material impact on where final ratings might be. And so I think this will continue. This should be a dynamic process. No change in the risk management practice as we go forward.

    我認為這個過程在過去 1.5 年裡一直在發生,並且發生了利率變化週期。影響客戶收入的利率和通貨膨脹都會對最終評級產生重大影響。所以我認為這種情況將會持續下去。這應該是一個動態的過程。隨著我們的前進,風險管理實務不會改變。

  • My expectation is if we go into the higher for longer, we will continue to evaluate what that means for our clients and book provisions. And where we are today, having built for 8 quarters, I think we have prudently provisioned the coverage ratios, as you look through different metrics when we compare ourselves in the context of our peers, we feel very good about that.

    我的期望是,如果我們更長時間地進入更高水平,我們將繼續評估這對我們的客戶和預訂條款意味著什麼。我們今天所處的位置,已經建立了8 個季度,我認為我們已經謹慎地規定了覆蓋率,當我們在同行的背景下比較自己時,你會通過不同的指標來查看,我們對此感覺非常好。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Yes. I guess the other question I had is, last quarter, you had a pretty large performing provision on a smaller increase in Stage 2 classifications and this quarter was a smaller increase. I get there's some netting effect going on as you release some of those because of some of those Stage 2 going to Stage 3.

    是的。我想我遇到的另一個問題是,上個季度,您對第二階段分類的較小增長有相當大的執行準備金,而本季度的增長較小。我知道當你發布其中一些內容時會產生一些淨效應,因為其中一些第二階段進入了第三階段。

  • Is there -- what's the -- are we kind of -- are you messaging that the buildup in performing provisions is more or less done for you over the -- in anticipation of what you're seeing in the market today?

    您是否在傳達這樣的訊息:執行條款的累積或多或少是根據您今天在市場上看到的情況而完成的?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes, that's a hard question because performing provisions is a quarterly decision based on many factors. And so macro economy and how that moves, the quality of our portfolios and the size of the portfolios, all of those will have an impact on what the final number is. And as you know, while we rely on models, we also sprinkle human judgment at the end just to understand what the models may not be saying.

    是的,這是一個很難的問題,因為執行規定是基於許多因素的季度決定。因此,宏觀經濟及其趨勢、我們投資組合的品質和投資組合的規模,所有這些都會對最終數字產生影響。如您所知,雖然我們依賴模型,但我們最終也會進行人為判斷,以了解模型可能沒有說的內容。

  • So until we see a peak in the impaired portfolio or we see a change around in the economy. I think there'll continue to be small builds. I don't know how small or how -- what the size is. I don't expect releases anytime soon. But the reason we feel good about this is performing provisions as opposed to precede impaired provisions. That's why you've seen the build over the last few quarters. And over the next 1 or 2 quarters, looking at the shape and size of our portfolios, we will give you better guidance on what the direction of performing will be.

    因此,直到我們看到受損投資組合達到峰值,或看到經濟發生變化。我認為小型建築將會繼續出現。我不知道有多小,也不知道大小是多少。我預計不會很快發布。但我們對此感到滿意的原因是履行條款而不是先前受損的條款。這就是您在過去幾個季度看到這項建設的原因。在接下來的一兩個季度中,根據我們投資組合的形狀和規模,我們將為您提供更好的業績方向指導。

  • Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

    Gabriel Dechaine - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just the last one for Tayfun. I missed it because I was distracted. But the outlook for U.S. P&C NIM, big compression this quarter. Can you remind me of that? And what the assumptions or moving pieces there?

    好的。然後是 Tayfun 的最後一個。我錯過了,因為我分心了。但美國產險淨利差的前景,本季大幅壓縮。你能提醒我嗎?那裡的假設或移動部分是什麼?

  • Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

    Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

  • Yes. My comment was that the biggest impact on this quarter's NIM was the deposit pricing competition and reduced spreads for deposits. But I said that I do not expect that phenomenon, although competition will continue that it will impact quarterly NIM as much as it did this quarter. I suspect that there is a little bit more contraction left in the U.S., but we probably will not see a quarter-over-quarter compression similar to what we just saw in Q2. So a bit more down, but more stable outlook, I should say.

    是的。我的評論是,對本季淨利差影響最大的是存款定價競爭和存款利差縮小。但我說過,我預計不會出現這種現象,儘管競爭將繼續,它將對季度淨利差產生與本季度一樣大的影響。我懷疑美國還會出現更多的收縮,但我們可能不會看到類似第二季的季度環比收縮。我應該說,雖然價格下跌了一點,但前景更加穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Lemar Persaud for Cormark Securities.

    下一個問題來自 Cormark Securities 的 Lemar Persaud。

  • Lemar Persaud - Research Analyst

    Lemar Persaud - Research Analyst

  • Just sticking along the Gabe's line of questioning there. I think I heard that you guys are expecting stable -- kind of stablish or flattish NIM at the all bank level. So correct me if I'm wrong, how do you guys get there? Because I think I heard that we should expect some pressure in domestic retail and less pressure in U.S. retail. So how do you get flattish at the all-bank result? Or did I just hear that wrong?

    就沿著加布的提問路線繼續下去吧。我想我聽說你們期待著穩定的——整個銀行層面的淨息差穩定或平坦。所以如果我錯了請糾正我,你們是如何到達那裡的?因為我想我聽說我們應該預期國內零售業會面臨一些壓力,而美國零售業的壓力會較小。那麼,如何才能讓所有銀行的結果持平呢?還是我剛剛聽錯了?

  • Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

    Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

  • No. I mean, you did hear that we are expecting stability in our all-bank NIM, and that is largely related to the 5- to 7-year rates remaining where they are today because our reinvestments are continuing to provide good support against deposit price competition. And then at the sort of -- in Canada, the phenomenon of BAs going away is really -- is neutral at the bank level. It does not impact the bank's NIM.

    不,我的意思是,你確實聽說我們預計全銀行淨利差保持穩定,這在很大程度上與5 至7 年期利率保持在今天的水平有關,因為我們的再投資繼續為存款提供良好的支援價格競爭。然後,在加拿大,BA 消失的現像在銀行層級確實是中性的。它不會影響銀行的淨利差。

  • Lemar Persaud - Research Analyst

    Lemar Persaud - Research Analyst

  • So you could see the dynamic where some pressure in the U.S. retail less than we saw this quarter and some pressure in the domestic business and still have flat all banks. So then it's at the corporate level. Like just help me understand those pieces, like how you get to flat at the consolidated with pressure on retail?

    因此,您可以看到美國零售業的一些壓力比我們本季看到的要小,而國內業務的一些壓力仍然與所有銀行持平。那麼這是在公司層面。就像幫助我理解這些部分一樣,例如你如何在零售壓力下實現整合?

  • Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

    Tayfun Tuzun - CFO

  • Yes, the quarter-over-quarter impact of the corporate side should provide some support for the broader bank NIM.

    是的,企業方面的季度環比影響應該為更廣泛的銀行淨利差提供一些支持。

  • Lemar Persaud - Research Analyst

    Lemar Persaud - Research Analyst

  • Okay. Okay. And then if I may, Gabriel is kind of going along the lines that I'm thinking in terms of his performing question there. Wondering if you could just talk about why shouldn't we see performing PCLs move materially higher, just given these trends in formations and higher unemployment and longer -- higher for longer rates? Like if I look at your coverage ratio, it's only up 2 basis points since the end of 2023.

    好的。好的。如果可以的話,加布里埃爾在回答他的表演問題時有點遵循我的想法。想知道您是否可以談談為什麼我們不應該看到表現良好的 PCL 大幅走高,僅僅考慮到這些趨勢以及更高的失業率和更長的利率?就像我看一下你的覆蓋率一樣,自 2023 年底以來,它只上升了 2 個基點。

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Sure. So I'd say that underperforming, again, similar to the way I answered. There's so many things that go into a performing provision as you think about -- so we've obviously considered the macro economy in our forecast. We've considered things around higher unemployment, and that's why within the performing provision, you'll see a higher allocation towards Canadian retail. We felt our coverages there need to be higher, and we've done that. So that, I think, continues as we go forward.

    當然。所以我會再說一次表現不佳,類似我回答的方式。正如你所想到的,績效條款涉及許多因素——所以我們在預測中顯然考慮了宏觀經濟。我們已經考慮了失業率上升的問題,這就是為什麼在執行條款中,您會看到加拿大零售業的分配更高。我們認為我們的覆蓋範圍需要更高,我們已經做到了。我認為,隨著我們的前進,這種情況將會繼續下去。

  • The other thing I would say is, if we look at trends and you talked about the impaired portfolio, on our impaired portfolio, we've historically had a 15% to 20% reservation. This quarter was a bit higher. But we look for trends with the formation of what it's telling us and then dynamically adjust where we can in terms of allocation of our capital, of our portfolio mix. And don't forget, we also have a very large synthetic portfolio or a credit insurance outlined. And so some of the losses as we move forward, we think will get covered also through insurance protection.

    我要說的另一件事是,如果我們看看趨勢,並且您談到了受損的投資組合,那麼在我們的受損投資組合中,我們歷史上有 15% 到 20% 的保留。本季略高一些。但我們會根據趨勢的形成來尋找趨勢,然後動態地調整我們的資本配置和投資組合。不要忘記,我們還有一個非常大的合成投資組合或概述的信用保險。因此,隨著我們前進,我們認為一些損失也將透過保險保障得到彌補。

  • So there are several ins and outs that go in. And that's why I feel, we will grow our performing provisions. We just don't see it grow sizably as we had last quarter, which was really the impact of a onetime model impact as we go forward.

    因此,有幾個細節。我們只是沒有看到它像上個季度那樣大幅增長,這實際上是我們前進過程中一次性模型影響的影響。

  • Christine Viau - Head of IR

    Christine Viau - Head of IR

  • And just in the interest of time, perhaps I could ask, operator, if we could limit one question as we try to fit everybody in.

    為了節省時間,也許我可以問接線員,我們是否可以限制一個問題,因為我們試圖讓每個人都參與其中。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research.

    下一個問題來自 Veritas Investment Research 的 Nigel D'Souza。

  • Nigel R. D'Souza - Senior Investment Analyst

    Nigel R. D'Souza - Senior Investment Analyst

  • I just wanted to quickly follow up on impaired provisions. And last time you had significant impaired formations. I think you mentioned a loss rate of 12% around there, and you mentioned it's higher this quarter. So any details on what the loss rate was this quarter? It looks like you've seen higher loss rates in manufacturing, retail trade and commercial real estate given the context that the macroeconomic environment has not deteriorated substantially and policy rates have not changed. What's driving the increase in loss rate?

    我只是想快速跟進受損的條款。上次你的陣型嚴重受損。我認為您提到了 12% 左右的損失率,並且您提到了本季度的損失率更高。那麼有關本季損失率的詳細資訊嗎?在宏觀經濟環境沒有大幅惡化、政策利率沒有變化的背景下,製造業、零售業和商業房地產的損失率似乎更高。是什麼推動了損失率的上升?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes. So there's a couple of factors that go in. There's obviously client behavior. And so as you've seen supply of credit change, especially in the U.S. with what's happening with the regional banks, refinancing for many of our clients gets more limited. And those who had postponed refinancing, hoping rates will come down sooner are finally -- they have to hit as they hit a maturity while they're coming to us.

    是的。所以有幾個因素在起作用。因此,正如您所看到的信貸供應變化,特別是在美國地區銀行所發生的情況,我們許多客戶的再融資變得更加有限。那些延後再融資、希望利率能盡快下降的人終於——他們必須在到期時才來找我們。

  • So we work with these clients extensively. In fact, that's a huge relationship trade for us, is working with our clients over cycles. We continue to do that.

    因此,我們與這些客戶廣泛合作。事實上,這對我們來說是一項巨大的關係交易,與我們的客戶進行長期合作。我們將繼續這樣做。

  • In the impairment provision rate, which I was answering the previous question, which is in the 15%, 20% range, it can move around a bit depending on the cycle of the sector that's in the impaired book. Transportation finance, I said, was higher. We had a large CRE loss. We also had a large Capital Market loss. And so when you've got larger cash flow unsecured, you may have a higher loss in that quarter. But at the end, it's such a diversified book. There's no concentrations that come up that I feel pretty confident that going forward, the trends should come back to where we've been over the last few years.

    我在回答上一個問題時,減損撥備率在 15%、20% 的範圍內,它可能會根據減損帳簿中產業的週期而略有變動。我說,運輸金融更高。我們的商業地產損失慘重。我們在資本市場也遭受了巨大損失。因此,當您有較大的無擔保現金流時,您在該季度的損失可能會更大。但歸根結底,這是一本如此多元化的書。我非常有信心,沒有任何集中出現,未來趨勢應該會回到過去幾年的水平。

  • Nigel R. D'Souza - Senior Investment Analyst

    Nigel R. D'Souza - Senior Investment Analyst

  • And sorry, just to follow up on a point you made there on the extension of maturities in commercial real estate, the 2023 maturities we know across the industry, bulk of that was extended to 2024 and we haven't seen the rate cuts provide relief.

    抱歉,我想跟進您在延長商業房地產期限方面提出的觀點,我們整個行業都知道 2023 年的期限,其中大部分期限延長至 2024 年,我們還沒有看到降息帶來緩解。

  • So could you just provide some color on how active BMO has been? You mentioned you (inaudible) account management team, but how active have you been in renegotiating, modifying or extending maturities over the last year? And what could the impact from that actions be going forward in terms of maturities in the pipeline?

    那麼您能否提供一些關於 BMO 的活躍程度的資訊?您提到了您(聽不清楚)的客戶管理團隊,但去年您在重新談判、修改或延長期限方面有多積極?就管道的到期日而言,這些行動可能會產生什麼影響?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • So you'll see that in our watch list, you'll see that in our impaired formation. Our commercial real estate impaired formations are still, I would say, compared to the market, lower. So we've actually done better. But we haven't taken our eyes off it. We've said in calls before, we've looked at every large loan in the office space, which is where most of the stress has been in the U.S. market. And we only have a handful and we've been working with our borrowers. In fact, over the last few quarters, several borrowers have refinanced several of the loans, which we had on our watch list were paid off. And the one large loan this quarter where we've taken the impairment, I've also added that I'm confident over the next few quarters as we work with our sponsors and buyers, and we may get a partial recovery even on that.

    所以你會在我們的觀察名單中看到這一點,你會在我們受損的陣型中看到這一點。我想說,與市場相比,我們的商業房地產受損情況仍然較低。所以我們實際上做得更好。但我們並沒有把目光從它身上移開。我們之前在電話中說過,我們已經研究了辦公室的每一筆大額貸款,這是美國市場壓力最大的地方。我們只有少數,但我們一直在與借款人合作。事實上,在過去的幾個季度中,一些借款人已經為我們觀察名單上的幾筆貸款進行了再融資。本季我們已經採取了一筆大額貸款減值,我還補充說,我對接下來的幾季充滿信心,因為我們與贊助商和買家合作,即使如此,我們也可能會部分恢復。

  • Now there is stress in the sector, you read about this, but again, it depends city to city, property to property. And again, the assessment has been very good. We continue to reappraise. So this is going to continue, and we'll keep reporting back to you as you see through our results on any of these events.

    現在這個行業面臨壓力,你讀過這篇文章,但同樣,這取決於城市到城市、房地產到房地產。再次強調,評價非常好。我們繼續重新評估。因此,這種情況將繼續下去,當您看到我們對這些事件的結果時,我們將繼續向您報告。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mario Mendonca from TD Securities.

    下一個問題來自道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

  • Mario Mendonca - MD

    Mario Mendonca - MD

  • I want to take the credit position, credit question, but maybe from a more positive perspective. Now it's been my experience over the years that BMO has, in the past, impaired PCLs a little sooner, taken some pretty big provisions. And then a year or so later, we get these really unusually outsized recoveries that continue for some time.

    我想從更正面的角度來看信用狀況、信用問題。根據我多年來的經驗,BMO 在過去更早地損害了 PCL,並採取了一些相當大的準備金。大約一年後,我們看到了這些異常大規模的復甦,並持續了一段時間。

  • So the nature of my question is, has anything changed from in -- relative to the past in BMO's impairment disciplines, provisioning disciplines? Or is there anything different about this cycle that would cause us to rethink that historical trend, the trend where elevated provisions, elevated impairments relative to peers and then elevated recoveries a year or so or 2 years later?

    所以我的問題的本質是,相對於過去,BMO 的減損規定、撥備規定有什麼變化嗎?或者說,這個週期是否有什麼不同之處,會讓我們重新思考歷史趨勢,即撥備增加、相對於同業的減損增加,然後一年左右或兩年後回收率增加的趨勢?

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Yes. Mario, it's Darryl. I might try and help you with that. And while I have the mic, operator, I think what we'll do is we'll extend the call for 5 more minutes because we've got a few people in the queue, and I'll ask people to try to stick to the one question, and I'll ask my team to try to stick to quick answers so we can get to all of you, and I'll try to lead by example here.

    是的。馬裡奧,我是達裡爾。我可能會嘗試幫助你。雖然我有麥克風,接線員,我想我們要做的就是將通話時間再延長 5 分鐘,因為我們有幾個人在排隊,我會要求人們盡量堅持只有一個問題,我會要求我的團隊盡量堅持快速回答,以便我們能夠聯繫到你們所有人,我會在這裡嘗試以身作則。

  • So Mario, I think the short answer is no, nothing has changed. Our appetite hasn't changed, our underwriting practices haven't changed. The composition, particularly in the wholesale side of the business, where, as we told you before, 90% of the relationships are sole or lead relationships, haven't changed. So our ability to work through as opposed to be at the end of the line in credit negotiations as we work out is, in the end of the day, advantaged relative to some, I would say. And to your question, unchanged.

    所以馬裡奧,我認為簡短的答案是否定的,什麼都沒有改變。我們的胃口沒有改變,我們的核保實務也沒有改變。其構成,特別是在批發方面的業務,正如我們之前告訴過您的那樣,90% 的關係是唯一或主導關係,並沒有改變。因此,我想說,歸根結底,我們在信貸談判中完成工作的能力,而不是在信貸談判的最後階段,相對於某些人來說是有優勢的。對於你的問題,沒有改變。

  • Now I can't necessarily extrapolate that and say that, that will result in accelerated recoveries as compared to others. As you point out, that has happened in the past. It might happen. And I can -- but what I can tell you, and I sat around this table for a long time, looking at these cycles, is that the way we approach the business, the way we're looking at the diversification of the business and where these particular impairments are coming from right now isn't a particular surprise relative to prior peaks and values that I've seen. And so the scenario that you outlined is certainly possible. I can't go so far as to say it's probable, but it's certainly possible because there isn't anything underlying that's suggested otherwise. Is that helpful?

    現在我不一定能推斷出這一點並說,與其他人相比,這將導致加速康復。正如您所指出的,這種情況過去曾發生過。這可能會發生。我可以——但我可以告訴你的是,我圍坐在這張桌子旁很長時間,著眼於這些週期,我們處理業務的方式,我們看待業務多元化的方式以及相對於我所看到的之前的峰值和數值,現在這些特定損傷的來源並不特別令人驚訝。因此,您概述的情況當然是可能的。我不能說這是可能的,但它肯定是可能的,因為沒有其他暗示。有幫助嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Mike Rizvanovic from Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

    下一個問題來自 Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods 的 Mike Rizvanovic。

  • Mehmed Rizvanovic - Research Analyst

    Mehmed Rizvanovic - Research Analyst

  • Just a quick one for Piyush. Just not sure if you can delineate or if there is a difference at all, but have you seen more noise from existing legacy relationships, longer-term relationships in that commercial lending book versus the new ones that you would have acquired a few quarters ago with Bank of the West? Just trying to understand if there's a specific source in terms of client base between legacy and new clients that drove that PCL to more than double in the quarter sequentially?

    對 Piyush 來說只是一個快速的。只是不確定您是否可以描述或是否存在差異,但是您是否看到了商業貸款書中現有的遺留關係、長期關係與您在幾個季度前獲得的新關係之間的更多噪音?只是想了解傳統客戶和新客戶之間的客戶群是否存在特定來源,導致 PCL 在本季連續成長一倍以上?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes, Mike. No, thanks for that. The short answer is no, just in the interest of time, I'll just add one more sentence. We've actually fully integrated Bank of the West. It's one BMO portfolio. And so we look at it end-to-end, like any other practice, all of our policies, processes, everything is the same. But going back to the beginning, it's the same U.S. performance across Bank of the West and our legacy book.

    是的,麥克。不,謝謝你。簡短的回答是否定的,只是為了節省時間,我再補充一句。我們實際上已經完全整合了西方銀行。這是 BMO 的一個投資組合。因此,我們從頭到尾地看待它,就像任何其他實踐一樣,我們所有的政策、流程,一切都是一樣的。但回到開頭,西方銀行和我們的遺產書中美國的表現是一樣的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Darko Mihelic from RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的達科·米赫利奇 (Darko Mihelic)。

  • Darko Mihelic - MD & Equity Analyst

    Darko Mihelic - MD & Equity Analyst

  • Piyush, I'm going to follow that same line of questioning from Mike, but I'm going to do it a little differently. When I compare your impaired experience in the quarter versus your U.S. peers, it's worse. And so possibly, there's a timing impact here, meaning your quarter ends in April and the U.S. banks ended in March. So part of this perhaps could be explained if there were a lot of files that went impaired in April. And then secondarily, when I compare you to TD, where there is no difference in timing, it's also significantly more impairments, which perhaps may not necessarily see Bank of the West, but would might suggest Midwest to the West Coast of USA.

    Piyush,我將遵循麥克的同樣的提問方式,但我會採取一些不同的方式。當我將你們本季受損的經歷與美國同行進行比較時,情況更糟。因此,這裡可能存在時間影響,這意味著您的季度在四月結束,而美國銀行在三月結束。因此,如果四月有很多文件受到損壞,這或許可以部分解釋。其次,當我將您與道明銀行進行比較時,時間上沒有差異,但損害也明顯更大,這可能不一定會看到西部銀行,但可能會建議中西部到美國西海岸。

  • So I wonder if you can just comment on whether or not those observations lead to that conclusion that there were a lot of impairments in April from the Midwest out to the West?

    因此,我想知道您是否可以評論一下這些觀察結果是否得出這樣的結論:4 月從中西部到西部存在大量減損?

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Darko, I wouldn't say it is a Midwest or California or any other geographic question. If I were to just [repeat] it back for you on the U.S. commercial side, there are 2 or 3 big -- or the U.S. side, there's 2 or 3 big reasons. One is you've got to back out the idiosyncratic loans, like the larger files are not a regular feature. They'll come idiosyncratically, which is exactly what happened. So that's one piece. We've never lost money. I would say, never -- close to almost never on the financial sector, and this is the one loan we had in capital markets that was large.

    達科,我不會說這是中西部或加州或任何其他地理問題。如果我只是在美國商業方面[重複]一下,有兩三個重要原因──或者在美國方面,有兩三個重要原因。一是你必須取消特殊的貸款,就像較大的文件不是常規功能一樣。他們會以特殊的方式出現,而這正是所發生的事情。所以這是一件。我們從來沒有虧過錢。我想說,在金融領域,從來沒有——幾乎從來沒有,這是我們在資本市場上獲得的一筆巨額貸款。

  • Second is within our wholesale book, we have the transportation business. That's a very cyclical business compared to the rest of the industry. It's much more, I would say, small truckers, less than 10, when you compare the small business delinquency index in the U.S. and compare our performance, not only have we been better than the delinquency index, we are better over 40 years. And so I think this quarter, we took the higher impairment on that. We feel good about that performance because with the summer, tonnage is picking up, freight rates shall move up. And I think as supply goes down, they should do well.

    其次是在我們的批發業務中,我們有運輸業務。與該行業的其他業務相比,這是一個非常週期性的業務。我想說,對於小型卡車司機來說,這個數字還不到10,當你比較美國的小企業拖欠指數並比較我們的表現時,我們不僅比拖欠指數更好,而且在40 年來我們都做得更好。因此,我認為本季我們對此進行了更高的減損。我們對這一表現感到滿意,因為隨著夏季的到來,噸位正在增加,運費將會上漲。我認為隨著供應量的下降,他們應該會做得很好。

  • And then the third is, you've got borrowers in different sectors that were just, with higher leverage, over feeling the heat from inflation, and then the higher interest rate coming to us and working out a solution. And so that's why it's a little bit more, this quarter, this may, like I said, continue if rates don't change. But there's nothing unique, I would say, on the overall portfolio that is system-wide. It's just these one-off events that add up to our U.S. performance.

    第三個是,不同行業的借款人只是在槓桿率較高的情況下感受到了通膨的壓力,然後更高的利率來到我們身邊並製定了解決方案。這就是為什麼這個季度會多一點,就像我說的,如果利率不發生變化,這種情況可能會繼續下去。但我想說,整個系統的整體產品組合併沒有什麼獨特之處。正是這些一次性事件增強了我們美國的表現。

  • On the other side, momentum is really good. Risk appetite continues to be strong. And I think Nadim has touched on this, where if I look at pipelines and activity, I actually think both loan growth and client engagement will result in just a better overall mix of revenue to overcome these losses.

    另一方面,勢頭確實不錯。風險偏好持續強勁。我認為納迪姆已經談到了這一點,如果我看看管道和活動,我實際上認為貸款成長和客戶參與度都會帶來更好的整體收入組合,以克服這些損失。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The last question is from Paul Holden from CIBC.

    最後一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

  • Paul David Holden - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research

    Paul David Holden - Executive Director of Institutional Equity Research

  • I want to ask a question quickly on your U.S. mid-market private equity lending business, if that's adding any noise to the impairments? And then two, if that's adding any noise to the revenue line for those mark-to-market positions? I guess, the LP positions you take in some of those funds.

    我想快速問一個關於你們的美國中型市場私募股權貸款業務的問題,這是否會增加減損的噪音?然後第二個問題,這是否會給那些按市值計價的頭寸的收入線增加任何噪音?我猜想,你在其中一些基金中持有的有限合夥人部位。

  • Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

    Piyush Agrawal - Chief Risk Officer

  • Yes. So we've got a very good, strong presence with our private equity partners. The private equity, I think you're referring to the call program or the sponsor funds lending has been an exceptional strength. So I don't see any losses from that, that's not the impairment. There'll be small names of operating companies that we take very granular positions in. Those are part of the regular higher risk profile that we've always known. But in general, I think it's -- the market activity is muted on the revenue side.

    是的。因此,我們在私募股權合作夥伴中擁有非常良好、強大的影響力。我認為您指的是私募股權投資計劃或贊助商資金借貸一直是一種特殊的優勢。所以我沒有看到任何損失,這不是減值。我們會在一些小規模的營運公司中持有非常細粒度的部位。但總的來說,我認為市場活動在收入方面很平靜。

  • Let me hand it over to Nadim because I know they have a regular discussion on pipeline, and the pipelines are very rich. And some of those are probably waiting for the election cycle in the U.S. Nadim?

    讓我把它交給Nadim,因為我知道他們經常討論管道,而且管道非常豐富。其中一些人可能正在等待美國的選舉週期納迪姆?

  • Nadim Hirji - Group Head of BMO Commercial Bank - North America

    Nadim Hirji - Group Head of BMO Commercial Bank - North America

  • Yes, thanks, Piyush. I'll just say activity has been muted. So that's definitely dampened our ability to grow within that space. But we are seeing as capital markets activities increasing, we are seeing M&A starting to increase. There are M&A transactions waiting for the election to see if policy changes will change their mind about the transaction or not.

    是的,謝謝,皮尤什。我只想說活動已經被靜音了。因此,這肯定會削弱我們在該空間內成長的能力。但我們看到,隨著資本市場活動的增加,併購開始增加。還有一些併購交易正在等待選舉,看看政策變化是否會改變他們對交易的想法。

  • So things are delayed for a little bit longer, specifically in the U.S. than we'd like it to be. But to your question, no, we haven't had significant FMV type losses in that book that are contributing to the numbers you're talking.

    因此,事情的延遲時間比我們希望的要長一些,特別是在美國。但對於你的問題,不,我們在那本書中沒有出現重大的 FMV 類型損失,而這會導致你所說的數字。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions registered at this time. I would like to turn back the meeting over to Darryl White.

    目前沒有登記任何其他問題。我想把會議轉交給達裡爾懷特。

  • William Darryl White - CEO & Director

    William Darryl White - CEO & Director

  • Okay. Thank you all for your questions. I'll just close by saying that we remain confident in the growth opportunities across our businesses. And importantly, as I said earlier, the power of the integrated North American franchise, we're clearly building competitive advantages in a highly fragmented U.S. market. Our strategy isn't changing, and we are poised to press those advantages. So thank you all for your time today, and we look forward to speaking to you again in August.

    好的。謝謝大家的提問。最後我要說的是,我們對我們業務的成長機會仍然充滿信心。重要的是,正如我之前所說,憑藉北美一體化特許經營權的力量,我們顯然正在高度分散的美國市場中建立競爭優勢。我們的策略沒有改變,我們準備好發揮這些優勢。感謝大家今天抽出寶貴的時間,我們期待在八月再次與你們交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路,我們感謝您的參與。