Bank of Montreal (BMO) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to BMO Financial Group's Q1 2024 earnings release and conference call for February 27, 2024. Your host for today is Christine Viau. Please go ahead.

早安，歡迎參加 BMO 金融集團 2024 年第一季財報發布以及 2024 年 2 月 27 日舉行的電話會議。今天的主持人是 Christine Viau。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. We'll begin the call with remarks from Darryl White, BMO's CEO, followed by Tayfun Tuzun, our Chief Financial Officer; and Piyush Agrawal, our Chief Risk Officer. Also present today to take questions are Ernie Johannson, Head of BMO North American Personal and Business Banking; Nadim Hirji, Head of BMO Commercial Banking; Alan Tannenbaum, Head of BMO Capital Markets; Deland Kamanga, Head of BMO Wealth Management; and Darrel Hackett, BMO U.S. CEO.

謝謝你，早安。我們將首先由 BMO 執行長 Darryl White 致辭，然後由我們的財務長 Tayfun Tuzun 致辭；以及我們的首席風險長 Piyush Agrawal。今天出席並接受提問的還有 BMO 北美個人和商業銀行業務主管 Ernie Johannson； Nadim Hirji，BMO 商業銀行業務主管； Alan Tannenbaum，BMO 資本市場主管； Deland Kamanga，BMO 財富管理主管；以及 BMO 美國執行長 Darrel Hackett。

As noted on Slide 2, forward-looking statements may be made during this call, which involve assumptions that have inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from these statements. I would also remind listeners that the bank uses non-GAAP financial measures to arrive at adjusted results, management measures performance on a reported and adjusted basis and considers both to be useful in assessing underlying business performance. Darryl and Tayfun will be referring to adjusted results in their remarks unless otherwise noted.

如投影片 2 所示，本次電話會議期間可能會做出前瞻性陳述，其中涉及具有固有風險和不確定性的假設。實際結果可能與這些陳述有重大差異。我還要提醒聽眾，該銀行使用非公認會計準則財務指標來得出調整後的結果，管理層在報告和調整的基礎上衡量績效，並認為兩者都有助於評估基本業務績效。除非另有說明，達裡爾和泰豐將在演講中提及調整後的結果。

I will now turn the call over to Darryl.

我現在將把電話轉給達裡爾。

Thank you, Christine, and good morning, everyone. Today, we announced net income of $1.9 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $2.56 and against a challenging economic backdrop, continued to demonstrate the strength and resilience of our diversified businesses.

謝謝克里斯汀，大家早安。今天，我們宣布淨利潤為 19 億美元，調整後每股收益為 2.56 美元，在充滿挑戰的經濟背景下，繼續展示了我們多元化業務的實力和彈性。

While the environment has constrained revenue growth in market-sensitive businesses in the near term, the strength of our personal and commercial businesses further enhanced through the integration of strategic acquisitions, delivered revenue growth of 10% and pre-provision pretax earnings growth of 3% from last year. We're executing against a simple, clear and well-defined plan by optimizing our businesses and balance sheet, controlling costs and growing customer relationships to drive long-term sustainable growth.

雖然短期內環境限制了市場敏感業務的營收成長，但我們的個人和商業業務透過策略收購整合進一步增強實力，實現營收成長10%，撥備前稅前獲利成長3%從去年開始。我們正在執行一個簡單、清晰和明確的計劃，透過優化我們的業務和資產負債表、控製成本和發展客戶關係來推動長期永續成長。

We significantly strengthened our capital position with a CET1 ratio of 12.8% and up 30 basis points from last quarter and up 60 basis points since closing the Bank of the West transaction. Through disciplined balance sheet optimization, we've absorbed regulatory impacts and credit normalization and are well positioned to support client growth going forward.

我們顯著增強了資本頭寸，CET1 比率為 12.8%，較上季度上升 30 個基點，自完成西方銀行交易以來上升 60 個基點。透過嚴格的資產負債表優化，我們吸收了監管影響和信貸正常化，並做好了支持客戶未來成長的準備。

Given the outcomes of our actions, the result -- the resulting strong position and consistent internal capital generation, we've removed the DRIP discount as of this quarter. We're delivering against the expense management commitments we announced last year, including the full achievement of the USD 800 million run rate cost synergies at Bank of the West as of February 1, one year after closing and 20% higher than our initial plan.

考慮到我們行動的結果——由此產生的強勢地位和持續的內部資本生成，我們從本季開始取消了 DRIP 折扣。我們正在兌現去年宣布的費用管理承諾，包括截至 2 月 1 日（交易完成一年後），西方銀行全面實現 8 億美元的運行費率成本協同效應，比我們最初的計劃高出 20%。

We're also on track to deliver the additional $400 million of expense savings by the end of 2024 from the early actions put in place last year to enhance bank-wide operational efficiency. The benefits of these programs are now accelerating. In fact, we've reduced expenses by 4% from last quarter and remain focused on returning to positive operating leverage beginning next quarter.

我們也有望透過去年為提高全行營運效率所採取的早期行動，到 2024 年底額外節省 4 億美元的費用。這些計劃的好處現在正在加速顯現。事實上，我們已經比上個季度減少了 4% 的開支，並繼續致力於從下個季度開始恢復正營運槓桿。

Credit remains well managed. While impaired loss provisions have increased from very low levels and our consistent and disciplined risk management practices and the expertise within our lending teams and the quality of our client selection are resulting in good overall credit performance in line with our expectations.

信貸管理依然良好。雖然減損損失撥備已從非常低的水平增加，但我們一致且嚴格的風險管理實踐、貸款團隊的專業知識以及我們客戶選擇的品質正在導致良好的整體信用表現，符合我們的預期。

As we've been saying for several quarters, the near-term growth outlook industry-wide is muted by slowing GDP growth. We expect North American economic growth to remain subdued in the first half of this year before recovering towards the end of the year on the back of lower interest rates.

正如我們幾個季度以來一直所說的那樣，由於 GDP 成長放緩，整個產業的近期成長前景變得黯淡。我們預計北美經濟成長將在今年上半年保持低迷，然後在利率下降的背景下於年底復甦。

While directionally similar, we do expect a meaningful difference in the landing between Canadian and U.S. economies. In Canada, real GDP is expected to fall from 3.8% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2024. The U.S., while also slowing is expected to show much better growth of 2.2% in 2024. We foresaw these trends emerging, and we're dynamically managing our businesses to succeed and further strengthen our competitive advantage as the environment improves.

雖然方向相似，但我們確實預期加拿大和美國經濟的著陸會出現有意義的差異。在加拿大，實際GDP 預計將從2022 年的3.8% 下降至2024 年的0.8%。美國雖然也在放緩，但預計2024 年將顯示出更好的增長2.2%。我們預見到這些趨勢正在出現，而我們正在動態地調整隨著環境的改善，管理我們的業務取得成功並進一步增強我們的競爭優勢。

In Canada, Personal and Business Banking continues to outperform with net new customer growth up 7% year-over-year. We continue to expand our suite of innovative products, including our new BMO Eclipse rise Visa card that rewards customers for establishing good financial habits. We're already seeing great traction with over 15,000, new accounts since launching in December. We continue to attract newcomers to Canada with our award-winning digital offerings and services with new accounts up 35% from last year.

在加拿大，個人和商業銀行業務持續表現出色，新客戶淨成長年增 7%。我們繼續擴展我們的創新產品套件，包括我們新的 BMO Eclipse raise Visa 卡，該卡獎勵客戶建立良好的財務習慣。自 12 月推出以來，我們已經看到了超過 15,000 個新帳戶的巨大吸引力。我們繼續透過屢獲殊榮的數位產品和服務吸引新移民到加拿大，新帳戶比去年增加了 35%。

In the U.S., we are executing against a very specific plan. We closed, converted and integrated the Bank of the West acquisition during a period of heightened uncertainty in the U.S. banking market where several banks have been challenged to maintain liquidity, capital and customers. Since closing, our total U.S. segment has consistently delivered quarterly PPPT above USD 1 billion and contributing 45% to the bank's earnings. We've sustained this performance despite intensified deposit competition and decreased loan demand.

在美國，我們正在執行一項非常具體的計劃。我們在美國銀行市場不確定性加劇的時期完成、轉換和整合了西方銀行的收購，多家銀行面臨維持流動性、資本和客戶的挑戰。自交易結束以來，我們的美國業務部門的季度 PPPT 持續交付超過 10 億美元，為銀行獲利貢獻了 45%。儘管存款競爭加劇且貸款需求下降，我們仍保持了這一業績。

We've overachieved our cost synergies and steadily improved our capital ratio in the U.S. banking subsidiary, which is up over 80 basis points from a year ago. We're gaining momentum from our initial brand campaign, which when combined with targeted marketing, including becoming the official jersey sponsor of the LAFC is driving new customers across our entire footprint, all under the unified BMO brand.

我們超額實現了成本協同效應，並穩步提高了美國銀行子公司的資本比率，比一年前提高了 80 個基點以上。我們從最初的品牌活動中獲得了動力，與有針對性的行銷相結合，包括成為 LAFC 的官方球衣贊助商，正在我們整個業務範圍內吸引新客戶，所有這些都在統一的 BMO 品牌下進行。

In our new Western markets, we've had over 250,000 customer conversations this quarter, providing valued and trusted advice. In California, new deposit relationships were 38% higher compared to last year as branch productivity continues to build towards our full potential. In North American Commercial Banking, while pressure on loan demand reflects lower utilizations as businesses wait to deploy capital at a lower cost, we continue to see strong momentum in customer acquisition across our integrated North American platform. The U.S. is now contributing 60% of our total new client growth compared to 37% during the same period last year. And we've retained over 90% of Bank of the West clients solid evidence that the BMO brand is strong and gaining traction.

在我們新的西方市場，本季我們進行了超過 25 萬次客戶對話，提供了有價值且值得信賴的建議。在加州，隨著分行生產力繼續發揮我們的全部潛力，新增存款關係比去年增加了 38%。在北美商業銀行業務中，雖然貸款需求的壓力反映出由於企業等待以較低的成本部署資本而導致利用率下降，但我們仍然看到整個北美綜合平台的客戶獲取勢頭強勁。目前，美國占我們新客戶成長總量的 60%，去年同期為 37%。我們保留了超過 90% 的西方銀行客戶的確鑿證據，證明 BMO 品牌強大且越來越受歡迎。

We're actively pursuing revenue synergies across our businesses with early indicators providing confidence that we will outperform the market when the environment becomes more constructive. In our Wealth business, we continue to create new and innovative solutions in the ETF and mutual fund space to help investors achieve their financial goals. BMO Global Asset Management received top honors across several categories at the 2023 Canada Lipper Fund Awards and led all ETF providers at the 2023 Fundata awards. At BMO Insurance, investments in data and analytics are helping speed up and simplify the underwriting process, improving productivity for financial advisers and helping make life insurance coverage more accessible to Canadians. In BMO Capital Markets, client activity is gaining momentum after a muted start to the year. In Canada, we were #1 in completed M&A and ECM this quarter. And in the U.K., BMO was recently designated as a gilt-edged market maker, a natural extension of our global rates business.

我們正在積極尋求跨業務的收入協同效應，早期指標讓我們相信，當環境變得更有建設性時，我們將跑贏市場。在我們的財富業務中，我們繼續在 ETF 和共同基金領域創造新的創新解決方案，以幫助投資者實現其財務目標。 BMO 全球資產管理公司在 2023 年加拿大理柏基金獎的多個類別中獲得最高榮譽，並在 2023 年 Fundata 獎中領先所有 ETF 提供者。在 BMO Insurance，對數據和分析的投資有助於加快和簡化核保流程，提高財務顧問的生產力，並幫助加拿大人更容易獲得人壽保險。在蒙特利爾銀行資本市場，經過今年年初的低迷之後，客戶活動正在增強。在加拿大，本季我們在完成的併購和 ECM 方面排名第一。在英國，蒙特婁銀行最近被指定為金邊做市商，這是我們全球利率業務的自然延伸。

We're driving real financial progress for our clients and communities and continuing to deliver on our client -- on our climate ambition. In partnership with the Canada Infrastructure Bank, we launched an innovative program to support the financing of energy retrofits for commercial building owners to deliver certified reductions to greenhouse gas emissions. It's just 1 example of how we're supporting our clients as their lead partner in the transition to a net zero world. BMO's leadership continues to be acknowledged once again being ranked among the most sustainable companies in the Dow Jones Sustainability Index.

我們正在為我們的客戶和社區推動真正的財務進步，並繼續為我們的客戶實現我們的氣候雄心。我們與加拿大基礎設施銀行合作，推出了一項創新計劃，為商業建築業主的能源改造融資提供支持，以實現經過認證的溫室氣體排放量減少。這只是我們作為客戶的主要合作夥伴如何支持客戶向淨零世界過渡的一個例子。 BMO 的領導地位再次獲得認可，並被評為道瓊永續發展指數中最具永續發展能力的公司之一。

In summary, our first quarter results were impacted by revenues that fell short of expectations due in part to environmental pressure and other specific factors Tayfun will describe in detail. Meanwhile, our core fundamental pillars are strong. Capital is very strong and ahead of expectations. Credit is within our range of expectations and expenses are tightly controlled, and we're delivering on our efficiency commitments and driving clear results. We will continue to manage for optimal performance in this environment and also proactively improve our competitive positioning for outperformance as we move to the next stage of the business cycle.

總而言之，我們第一季的業績受到收入未達到預期的影響，部分原因是環境壓力和 Tayfun 將詳細描述的其他具體因素。同時，我們的核心基本支柱是強大的。資本非常雄厚，超預期。信貸在我們的預期範圍內，費用受到嚴格控制，我們正在兌現我們的效率承諾並取得明確的成果。我們將繼續在這種環境下管理最佳業績，並在進入商業週期的下一階段時積極改善我們的競爭地位，以取得優異的業績。

I'll now turn it over to Tayfun.

現在我將把它交給 Tayfun。

Thank you, Darryl. Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My comments will start on Slide 8.

謝謝你，達裡爾。早安，感謝您加入我們。我的評論將從幻燈片 8 開始。

First quarter reported EPS was $1.73 and net income was $1.3 billion. Adjusting items are shown on Slide 38, and included the after-tax impact of the FDIC special assessment of $313 million, the net accounting loss on the sale of a portfolio of recreational vehicle loans related to balance sheet optimization of $136 million and acquisition-related impacts for amortization of intangibles and integration costs of $84 million and $57 million, respectively. The increase in reported net income from last year reflected the loss on fair value management actions related to the Bank of the West acquisition in the prior year.

第一季每股收益為 1.73 美元，淨利潤為 13 億美元。調整項目如幻燈片 38 所示，包括 FDIC 特別評估的稅後影響 3.13 億美元，與資產負債表優化相關的休閒車貸款組合銷售的淨會計損失 1.36 億美元和收購相關對無形資產攤銷和整合成本的影響分別為8,400 萬美元和5,700 萬美元。報告淨利潤較去年增加反映了與上一年收購西方銀行相關的公允價值管理行動的損失。

The remainder of my comments will focus on adjusted results. Adjusted EPS was $2.56, down from $3.06 last year, and net income was $1.9 billion, down 12%. Revenue increased 10% and PPPT increased 3% with good growth in Canadian P&C, the benefit of acquisitions and market-related impacts in insurance from the transition to IFRS 17, partly offset by declines in Capital Markets and Corporate Services.

我的其餘評論將集中在調整後的結果。調整後每股收益為 2.56 美元，低於去年的 3.06 美元，淨利潤為 19 億美元，下降 12%。收入成長了10%，PPPT 成長了3%，這得益於加拿大財產和意外險業務的良好成長、收購帶來的好處以及過渡到IFRS 17 後保險業的市場相關影響，但部分被資本市場和企業服務的下降所抵銷。

Expenses increased 16%, primarily due to the impact from acquisitions, partly offset by the realization of cost synergies and efficiency initiatives. Total PCL was $627 million, including a $154 million provision for performing loans compared with a total provision of $217 million in the prior year. Piyush will speak to these in his remarks.

費用增加了 16%，主要是由於收購的影響，部分被成本協同效應和效率措施的實現所抵消。 PCL 總額為 6.27 億美元，其中包括 1.54 億美元的履約貸款撥備，而前一年的撥備總額為 2.17 億美元。皮尤什將在演講中談到這些問題。

Turning to Slide 9. There were some idiosyncratic items within the quarter that had outsized impacts on the total bank revenue growth. First, in Wealth Management, the transition to IFRS 17 resulted in variability from market-related impacts. While quarterly results in the prior year were restated, they are not necessarily representative of our future earnings profile as hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of changes in interest rates on our earnings began to be implemented in the second half of the year. We expect our quarterly insurance revenue stream to be more consistent with the first quarter during the remainder of this year.

轉向投影片 9。本季內有一些特殊項目對銀行總收入成長產生了巨大影響。首先，在財富管理領域，向 IFRS 17 的過渡導致了市場相關影響的變化。儘管對上一年的季度業績進行了重述，但它們並不一定代表我們未來的盈利狀況，因為下半年開始實施減輕利率變化對我們盈利影響的對沖策略。我們預計，在今年剩餘時間內，我們的季度保險收入流將與第一季更加一致。

Second, Capital Markets revenues reflected a weaker environment and client activity to start the year. In addition, the impact of proposed legislation that eliminates the deductibility of certain Canadian dividends reduced trading revenue by approximately $50 million from the prior year. Activity levels improved at the end of the quarter. And if markets remain constructive, we expect to reach $625 million to $650 million of average quarterly PPPT in Capital Markets during the remainder of the year.

其次，資本市場收入反映了年初環境和客戶活動的疲軟。此外，取消某些加拿大股息扣除額的擬議立法的影響使交易收入比上一年減少了約 5,000 萬美元。本季末活動水準有所改善。如果市場保持建設性，我們預計今年剩餘時間內資本市場的平均季度 PPPT 將達到 6.25 億至 6.5 億美元。

Third, Corporate Services revenues decreased compared with the prior year and prior quarter. About 2/3 of the decline from the prior year was related to the earnings on excess equity that we were holding ahead of the closing of Bank of the West. We are also holding more liquidity on our balance sheet, which always comes at a higher cost. In addition, market volatility during the quarter had a negative impact on the valuation of our hedge-derivative positions that runs through our P&L. This item can cause some variability, but the cumulative impact converges to 0 over time. This was the largest contributor to lower sequential revenues as well as a lower benefit from purchase accounting mark accretion. Barring unexpected market volatility, we expect our average quarterly revenues in corporates to be around negative $200 million to $225 million for the remainder of the year.

第三，企業服務收入較上年度及上季下降。與前一年相比，大約 2/3 的下降與我們在西方銀行關閉之前持有的超額股本收益有關。我們的資產負債表上也持有更多的流動性，但這總是會帶來更高的成本。此外，本季的市場波動對貫穿損益表的對沖衍生性商品部位估值產生了負面影響。該項目可能會導致一些變化，但隨著時間的推移，累積影響會收斂到 0。這是連續收入下降以及購買會計標記增值帶來的收益下降的最大原因。除非出現意外的市場波動，否則我們預計今年剩餘時間內企業平均季度營收將在負 2 億至 2.25 億美元之間。

Moving to the balance sheet on Slide 10. Average loan growth was 16% year-over-year, driven by Bank of the West and good growth in Canadian P&C and Capital Markets. The sale of the RV loan portfolio in the quarter reduced average loans by $4.8 billion and period-end loans by $9.6 billion. Excluding the impact of the sale and the wind down of the indirect auto portfolio, average loans were up 2% sequentially on a constant currency basis with growth both -- in both business and government and consumer lending. Average customer deposits increased 19% year-over-year due to Bank of the West and higher balances in Canadian P&C and Capital Markets. Sequentially, period-end deposits were up 2% on a constant currency basis.

轉到投影片 10 上的資產負債表。在西方銀行以及加拿大財產保險和資本市場的良好成長的推動下，平均貸款年增 16%。本季 RV 貸款組合的出售使平均貸款減少了 48 億美元，期末貸款減少了 96 億美元。排除出售和間接汽車投資組合縮減的影響，以固定匯率計算，平均貸款環比增長 2%，企業貸款、政府貸款和消費者貸款均出現增長。由於西方銀行以及加拿大財險和資本市場餘額的增加，平均客戶存款年增 19%。隨後，以固定匯率計算，期末存款增加了 2%。

Turning to Slide 11. On an ex-trading basis, net interest income was up 12% from the prior year, and net interest margin was up 3 basis points driven by higher margins in our P&C businesses, partially offset by lower net interest income in Corporate Services. Net interest margin was down 6 basis points from last quarter, reflecting continued pressure from the overall competitive deposit environment and deposit migration, net of benefits from reinvestment at higher rates. The total bank margin was also impacted by lower net interest income related to net accretion of purchase accounting fair value marks and risk transfer transactions, including the sale of the RV loan portfolio.

轉向幻燈片11。在除交易基礎上，淨利息收入比上年增長12%，淨息差上升3 個基點，這主要是由於我們的財產和意外傷害業務利潤率提高，但部分被2019 年淨利息收入下降所抵銷。企業服務。淨利差較上季下降 6 個基點，反映出整體競爭性存款環境和存款遷移帶來的持續壓力（扣除較高利率再投資的收益）。銀行總利潤率也受到與購買會計公允價值標記淨增值和風險轉移交易（包括出售 RV 貸款組合）相關的淨利息收入下降的影響。

In Canadian P&C, NIM increased 3 basis points, mainly due to favorable balance sheet mix, partly offset by lower deposit margins due to the continued migration to term deposits. In U.S. P&C, NIM remained flat as favorable changes in balance sheet mix were offset by lower deposit margins as customers migrate to higher cost deposits. During the remainder of the year, we expect relative stability in our overall margin as the benefit of reinvestment of equity and nonmaturity deposits at higher yields offset pressures from higher deposit costs.

在加拿大財產和意外險方面，淨利差增加了 3 個基點，主要是由於有利的資產負債表組合，但由於持續轉向定期存款而導致存款利差下降，部分抵消了這一影響。在美國財產和意外險方面，淨利差保持持平，因為資產負債表組合的有利變化被客戶轉向成本較高的存款而導致的存款利差下降所抵消。在今年剩餘時間內，我們預計整體利潤率將相對穩定，因為以較高收益率進行股權和非到期存款再投資的好處抵消了存款成本上升的壓力。

Moving to Slide 12. Expenses increased 16% from the prior year, mainly due to the impact from acquisitions. The current quarter included an $84 million benefit from the consolidation of certain U.S. benefit plans. Sequentially, expenses were down 4%, mainly reflecting the higher realized Bank of the West cost synergies and additional operational efficiency savings. These more than offset the impact of stock-based compensation for employees eligible to retire and seasonality of benefits that is recognized in the first quarter of each year, which had a combined impact of $280 million.

轉到投影片 12。費用比前一年增加 16%，主要是由於收購的影響。本季包括來自某些美國福利計劃合併的 8,400 萬美元福利。隨後，費用下降了 4%，主要反映了西方銀行實現了更高的成本綜效和額外的營運效率節省。這些足以抵消有資格退休的員工的股票薪酬和每年第一季確認的季節性福利的影響，這總共產生了 2.8 億美元的影響。

As Darryl mentioned earlier, we have been very successful on delivering on our expense commitments. We now have achieved the full USD 800 million in the Bank of the West run rate cost synergies per our commitments and we have been progressing well on the remaining enterprise operational efficiencies we announced last year. To date, we have realized $325 million of the $400 million run rate expense savings that we are targeting to achieve by the end of the fiscal year.

正如達裡爾之前提到的，我們非常成功地履行了我們的費用承諾。現在，我們已經按照我們的承諾實現了西方銀行 8 億美元的運行費率成本協同效應，並且我們在去年宣布的剩餘企業營運效率方面也取得了良好進展。迄今為止，我們已經實現了 3.25 億美元的目標，在本財年末實現 4 億美元的營運費用節省。

Based on our current expectations, the first quarter should be a low point for revenues and a high point for expenses for this fiscal year. And therefore, we remain confident in our ability to deliver positive operating leverage starting the second quarter and for the full fiscal year.

根據我們目前的預期，第一季應該是本財年收入的低點和支出的高點。因此，我們對從第二季開始和整個財年提供正營運槓桿的能力仍然充滿信心。

Turning to Slide 13. Our capital position continues to strengthen with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.8%, up 30 basis points from the prior quarter, driven by internal capital generation, shares issued under the dividend reinvestment plan and the benefit from the sale of the RV loan portfolio. These were partially offset by the FDIC special assessment charge and higher source currency RWA, reflecting higher market and operational risks and net asset quality changes. The combined impact of regulatory capital developments and adoption of IFRS 17 effective this first quarter did not have a significant impact on our capital position.

轉向投影片 13。在內部資本產生、根據股息再投資計畫發行的股票以及出售收益的推動下，我們的資本狀況繼續增強，普通股一級資本比率為 12.8%，比上一季上升 30 個基點房車貸款組合的。這些被 FDIC 特別評估費用和較高的源貨幣 RWA 部分抵消，反映了較高的市場和營運風險以及淨資產品質變化。監管資本發展和今年第一季生效的 IFRS 17 的採用的綜合影響並未對我們的資本狀況產生重大影響。

Moving to the operating groups and starting on Slide 14. Canadian P&C delivered net income of $925 million, down 3% year-over-year. PPPT of $1.6 billion increased a strong 8%, offset by higher provisions for credit losses. Revenue of $2.8 billion was up 9%, driven by growth in net interest income reflecting both solid balance growth and higher margins. Noninterest revenue increased 6%, primarily due to the acquisition of AIR MILES. Expenses were up 9% and reflecting the inclusion of AIR MILES and higher technology costs and down 4% from the prior quarter, driven by lower employee-related costs and operational efficiencies.

轉向營運部門，從幻燈片 14 開始。加拿大財產保險 (Canadian P&C) 淨利潤為 9.25 億美元，年減 3%。 PPPT 達 16 億美元，強勁成長 8%，但被信貸損失撥備增加所抵銷。淨利息收入成長推動收入達到 28 億美元，成長 9%，反映出穩健的餘額成長和更高的利潤率。非利息收入成長 6%，主要是因為收購了 AIR MILES。費用增加了 9%，反映出包含了 AIR MILES 和更高的技術成本；由於員工相關成本和營運效率降低，費用較上一季下降了 4%。

Loans were up 5% year-over-year with good growth across mortgages and commercial loans and increased 1% from the prior quarter. Deposits were up 11% year-over-year, with retail deposits up 10% and commercial deposits up 12% and reflecting continued growth in term products. Deposits increased 2% sequentially.

貸款年增 5%，抵押貸款和商業貸款成長良好，較上一季成長 1%。存款年增11%，其中零售存款成長10%，商業存款成長12%，反映出定期產品的持續成長。存款季增 2%。

Moving to U.S. P&C on Slide 15. My comments here will speak to the U.S. dollar performance. Net income was $475 million, down 4% from the prior year with PPPT growth of 19%, offset by higher provisions for loan losses. Sequentially, revenue was up 1%, driven by an increase in net interest income on higher deposit balances. Expenses declined 4% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting benefits from expense management and our focus on operational efficiencies. Loans were up 48% from the prior year driven by Bank of the West. Excluding the impact of the RV loan portfolio sale, average loans were up 2% sequentially, with growth across both mortgages and commercial loans. Deposits increased 45% year-over-year and 2% sequentially, driven by strong growth in term and money market deposits.

轉到幻燈片 15 上的美國財產和意外保險。我在這裡的評論將涉及美元的表現。淨利潤為 4.75 億美元，比上年下降 4%，PPPT 成長 19%，但被貸款損失撥備增加所抵銷。隨後，由於存款餘額增加導致淨利息收入增加，收入增加了 1%。費用較上季下降 4%，反映出費用管理帶來的好處以及我們對營運效率的關注。在西方銀行的推動下，貸款比去年增加了 48%。排除房車貸款組合銷售的影響，平均貸款較上季成長 2%，抵押貸款和商業貸款均出現成長。在定期存款和貨幣市場存款強勁成長的推動下，存款年增 45%，較上季成長 2%。

Moving to Slide 16. BMO Wealth Management net income was $241 million, up from $160 million last year. Wealth and Asset Management net income of $188 million decreased 7% from the prior year. Contributions from Bank of the West and growth in new client assets were more than offset by lower net interest income due to migration to term deposits and higher expenses. Insurance net income was $53 million compared with a loss of $43 million in the prior year, primarily due to market-related impacts in the prior year, reflecting the transition to IFRS 17. Expenses were up 8%, mainly due to higher employee-related costs, including impact of Bank of the West and were up 1% sequentially.

前往投影片 16。BMO 財富管理淨利為 2.41 億美元，高於去年的 1.6 億美元。財富與資產管理淨利為 1.88 億美元，較上年下降 7%。西方銀行的貢獻和新客戶資產的成長被由於轉向定期存款和更高的費用而導致的淨利息收入下降所抵消。保險淨收入為5,300 萬美元，而上一年為虧損4,300 萬美元，這主要是由於上一年市場相關影響，反映了向IFRS 17 的過渡。費用增長了8%，主要是由於與員工相關的費用增加成本（包括西方銀行的影響）較上季上漲 1%。

Moving to Slide 17. BMO Capital Markets net income was $408 million compared with $495 million in the prior year, reflecting weakness in the market environments. Revenue in Global Markets was down 13%, reflecting lower trading revenue. Investment and corporate banking revenue was up 5% on higher underwriting and advisory fees. Expenses were up 1% driven by technology costs, partially offset by lower performance-based compensation.

轉到投影片 17。BMO 資本市場淨利為 4.08 億美元，而前一年為 4.95 億美元，反映出市場環境疲軟。全球市場收入下降 13%，反映出交易收入下降。由於承銷和諮詢費用增加，投資和企業銀行業務收入增加了 5%。由於技術成本的推動，費用上漲了 1%，但部分被基於績效的薪酬下降所抵消。

Turning now to Slide 18. Corporate Services net loss was $316 million compared with $180 million in the prior quarter and $114 million in the prior year. The widening of the net loss was driven by the revenue items previously discussed, partially offset by lower expenses.

現在轉向投影片 18。企業服務淨虧損為 3.16 億美元，而上一季為 1.8 億美元，上一年為 1.14 億美元。淨虧損擴大是由前面討論的收入項目推動的，但部分被較低的費用所抵消。

To conclude, the banking environment is at a point in the cycle where the outlook for revenue growth is more constrained in the near term. In response, we are delivering on our committed expense savings to deliver PPPT growth and positive operating leverage. At the same time, we are focusing on investing for growth, allocating additional resources to areas where we have expanded our revenue opportunities through acquisitions and to businesses where we are capturing market share profitably to build continued shareholder value. We are cognizant that we need to execute with discipline, and our track record in risk and expense management should be a strong proof point for such accountability.

總而言之，銀行業環境正處於週期中的一個階段，短期內收入成長前景更加受限。作為回應，我們正在兌現承諾的費用節省，以實現 PPPT 成長和積極的營運槓桿。同時，我們專注於成長投資，將額外資源分配給我們透過收購擴大收入機會的領域以及我們正在盈利地佔領市場份額以建立持續股東價值的企業。我們認識到，我們需要嚴格執行，我們在風險和費用管理方面的記錄應該成為這種問責制的有力證明。

I will now turn it over to Piyush.

現在我將把它交給Piyush。

Thank you, Tayfun, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 20. The total provision for credit losses was $627 million or 38 basis points. Impaired provisions for the quarter were $473 million or 29 basis points, up 4 basis points from prior quarter, reflecting the continued impact from tighter monetary policy.

謝謝你，Tayfun，大家早安。從投影片 20 開始。信貸損失撥備總額為 6.27 億美元，即 38 個基點。本季減損準備金為 4.73 億美元，即 29 個基點，較上季增加 4 個基點，反映了緊縮貨幣政策的持續影響。

Credit performance remains well within our expectations and was driven by strong risk management discipline across the bank and the benefit from our risk mitigation actions over the last few years. Canadian retail impaired losses were $204 million, up $14 million from prior quarter and U.S. retail impaired loan losses were $80 million, up $20 million. Consumer loan losses in both Canada and the U.S. reflect higher delinquencies in credit cards and other personal loans, reflecting increases in customer insolvencies, which in Canada are now above pre-pandemic levels.

信貸表現仍然很好地符合我們的預期，這是由整個銀行嚴格的風險管理紀律以及過去幾年我們的風險緩解行動所帶來的好處所推動的。加拿大零售減損損失為 2.04 億美元，比上一季增加 1,400 萬美元，美國零售減損貸款損失為 8,000 萬美元，比上一季增加 2,000 萬美元。加拿大和美國的消費者貸款損失反映了信用卡和其他個人貸款拖欠率上升，反映了客戶破產率的增加，而加拿大的破產率目前已高於疫情前的水平。

Also of note, the discontinued indirect auto business provisions are now reported in Corporate Services and have increased in line with industry trends. Canadian commercial impaired loan provisions were $34 million, down $8 million from last quarter and U.S. commercial impaired provisions were $103 million, up $20 million, primarily due to higher losses in the transportation and retail trade sectors. Capital markets impaired losses were $11 million, flat to previous quarter.

另外值得注意的是，已終止的間接汽車業務撥備現已在企業服務中報告，並根據行業趨勢增加。加拿大商業減損貸款撥備為 3,400 萬美元，比上季減少 800 萬美元，美國商業減損準備金為 1.03 億美元，增加 2,000 萬美元，主要是由於運輸和零售貿易部門的損失增加。資本市場減損損失為 1,100 萬美元，與上一季持平。

Moving to Slide 21. Performing provision for credit losses of $154 million primarily reflected portfolio credit migration and model updates, net of changes in expert credit judgment. Negative credit migration, which began in the second quarter of last year is not yet over, but we do expect it to slow up later during the remainder of the year. Also of note is an $87 million release of performing allowance related to the RV loan sale. This release is outside of the $154 million build and netted in the noninterest revenue line against the loss on the sale of the RV portfolio that Tayfun referenced in his remarks. We are comfortable that our total performing allowance for Q1 of $3.5 billion provides appropriate coverage of 55 basis points over our performing loans and 2.4x trading 4-quarter impaired losses given the credit profile of our current portfolio and our forecast for impaired losses.

轉到投影片 21。為 1.54 億美元的信用損失準備金主要反映了投資組合信用遷移和模型更新，扣除了專家信用判斷的變化。去年第二季開始的負信貸遷移尚未結束，但我們預計今年剩餘時間內將會放緩。另外值得注意的是與房車貸款銷售相關的 8,700 萬美元的績效津貼發放。此次發行不包括在 1.54 億美元的建設中，併計入非利息收入線，以抵消 Tayfun 在演講中提到的 RV 投資組合銷售損失。考慮到我們目前投資組合的信用狀況和我們對減損損失的預測，我們感到滿意的是，我們第一季35 億美元的總績效準備金為我們的不良貸款提供了55 個基點的適當覆蓋，並為2.4 倍的第四季交易減損損失提供了適當的保障。

Turning to Slide 22 on impaired loans and formations. Bank-wide impaired formation slowed by $400 million from prior quarter to $1.4 billion. Gross impaired loans increased to $4.3 billion or 65 basis points with the increases coming primarily from health care and manufacturing.

轉向關於減損貸款和形成的幻燈片 22。全行範圍內的減損形成較上季減少 4 億美元，至 14 億美元。總減損貸款增至 43 億美元，即 65 個基點，成長主要來自醫療保健和製造業。

On Slide 23, we provide an overview of our business and government portfolio, which remains a key differentiator for the bank. The portfolio is well diversified across geographies and industries, highly secured and well structured. Throughout market cycles, we have maintained consistent and disciplined underwriting standards as evidenced by the portfolio quality and strong performance over time. Our expertise in workout practices consistently results in lower losses on impaired loans with a focus on helping clients return to performing status. As expected, inflation and monetary tightening are impacting businesses and resulting in negative migration. However, 54% of this portfolio continues to be investment grade with low impairment level of less than 1%.

在投影片 23 中，我們概述了我們的業務和政府投資組合，這仍然是該銀行的關鍵差異化因素。該投資組合在地域和行業上實現了多元化，安全性高且結構良好。在整個市場週期中，我們一直保持一致且嚴格的承保標準，投資組合品質和長期的強勁表現證明了這一點。我們在重組實務方面的專業知識始終能夠降低減損貸款的損失，重點在於幫助客戶恢復正常狀態。正如預期的那樣，通貨膨脹和貨幣緊縮正在影響企業並導致負移民。然而，該投資組合的 54% 仍為投資級別，減損水準低於 1%。

On Slide 24, we provide an overview of the Canadian mortgage portfolio that continues to perform very well. We've provided additional information on the impact of higher interest rates on customer payments, while higher rates are expected to impact borrowers and renewal or refinancing, our internal analytics indicate that customers have the capacity to absorb these higher payments. In fact, over $19 billion of mortgages have now renewed in this higher rate environment, and they continue to exhibit good payment performance. Additionally, our outreach to customers continues to be successful with many taking actions, resulting in a significant reduction in mortgages that are in negative amortization by over $7 billion in this quarter alone.

在投影片 24 中，我們概述了繼續表現良好的加拿大抵押貸款投資組合。我們提供了有關較高利率對客戶付款影響的更多信息，雖然較高的利率預計會影響借款人以及續約或再融資，但我們的內部分析表明客戶有能力吸收這些較高的付款。事實上，在這種高利率環境下，已有超過 190 億美元的抵押貸款已續簽，並且它們繼續表現出良好的付款表現。此外，我們對客戶的推廣繼續取得成功，採取了許多行動，僅在本季度，負攤銷抵押貸款就大幅減少了 70 億美元以上。

To conclude, we continue to expect that the higher level of interest rates and slowing economic activities will be reflected in somewhat higher impaired loss rates in the range of low 30 basis points for the year with some variability quarter-to-quarter. But given the quality and the diversification of our portfolio, our high allowance coverage and strong risk management capabilities, we remain well positioned to manage the current environment and emerging risks.

總而言之，我們繼續預計，較高的利率水準和經濟活動放緩將反映在今年減損損失率略高的情況下，在 30 個基點的低位範圍內，並且季度與季度之間存在一定的波動。但鑑於我們投資組合的品質和多元化、高準備金覆蓋率和強大的風險管理能力，我們仍然能夠很好地管理當前環境和新出現的風險。

With that, I will now turn the call back to the operator for the Q&A portion of this call. Thank you.

這樣，我現在將把電話轉回接線員以進行本次電話的問答部分。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question is from Ebrahim Poonawala, Bank of America.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ebrahim Poonawala。

I guess I had a question just around balance sheet positioning, maybe Tayfun. One, talk to us around the U.S. P&C business. I look at the loan-to-deposit ratio, 94%. Everything that I hear from the U.S. banks has significant focus on liquidity, lower loan-to-deposit ratios. Could you give us a perspective on how you are thinking about liquidity within U.S. P&C, where that loan-to-deposit ratio should gravitate? And then the second question is the -- from a capital and RWA optimization standpoint, how much more is there to go? I mean, I understand banks are constantly optimizing for RWA. But from an investor standpoint, RWA optimization leads to hit to earnings and revenue. So just trying to understand the risk of earnings or revenue hit tied to these actions?

我想我有一個關於資產負債表定位的問題，也許是 Tayfun。一、跟我們談談美國財產險業務。我看一下貸存比，94%。我從美國銀行聽到的一切都非常關注流動性和較低的貸存比率。您能否向我們介紹一下您如何看待美國財產和意外傷害險內部的流動性以及貸存比應該傾向於什麼方向？第二個問題是──從資本和 RWA 優化的角度來看，還有多少工作要做？我的意思是，我了解銀行正在不斷優化 RWA。但從投資者的角度來看，RWA 優化會導致收益和收入受到打擊。那麼只是想了解與這些行為相關的收益或收入受到影響的風險嗎？

Thank you for both questions. Let me actually start with the second one first. I understand why the question first references the earnings impact of these transactions, but we actually look at it differently. We look at this as not necessarily taking away from our revenues, but creating the potential for more revenue growth and for expanded relationship growth in all of our businesses, whether it applies to commercial or consumer because these create -- first of all, these are ROE accretive transactions. So in that sense, we are creating more room on our balance sheet, not to sacrifice growth, but actually to grow stronger and faster, both in the U.S. and in Canada. So that's important. I think I highlighted last year that during the fiscal year, the impact of these transactions would be about $400 million last year. This year, it will probably be a bit higher because we have more transactions. But the growth impact on our company of these transactions and the optimization of capital is very significant.

謝謝你的兩個問題。讓我先從第二個開始。我理解為什麼這個問題首先提到這些交易對收益的影響，但我們實際上以不同的方式看待它。我們認為這不一定會減少我們的收入，而是為我們所有業務創造更多收入成長和擴大關係成長的潛力，無論是商業還是消費者，因為這些創造了——首先，這些是ROE 增值交易。因此，從這個意義上說，我們正在資產負債表上創造更多空間，不是為了犧牲成長，而是為了在美國和加拿大實現更強大、更快的成長。所以這很重要。我想我去年就強調過，在本財年中，去年這些交易的影響約為 4 億美元。今年，它可能會更高一些，因為我們有更多的交易。但這些交易和資本優化對我們公司的成長影響是非常顯著的。

On the U.S. side, with respect to the balance sheet positioning, we feel actually very good both on the personal side as well as the commercial side with deposit growth. We have -- obviously, Bank of the West gives us an extra oomph in terms of connecting with more customers and growing the deposit base, while also our fairly efficient treasury management platform gives our commercial business expanded opportunities in growing deposits. In an area where we have a bit more muted loan growth compared to our historical levels, we expect this will continue to build liquidity. We've always emphasized over the past year or so that we are positioned very well with respect to our competitors, both from a capital perspective as well as from a liquidity perspective, which gives us, I think, opportunities for market share growth. Ernie and Nadim, I will invite you guys to comment on both questions.

在美國方面，就資產負債表定位而言，我們感覺無論是個人方面還是商業方面，存款成長實際上都非常好。顯然，西方銀行在與更多客戶建立聯繫和擴大存款基礎方面為我們提供了額外的動力，同時我們相當高效的資金管理平台為我們的商業業務提供了增加存款的更多機會。與歷史水平相比，我們的貸款成長更加緩慢，我們預計這將繼續增加流動性。在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們一直強調，無論是從資本角度還是從流動性角度來看，我們相對於競爭對手都處於非常有利的位置，我認為這為我們提供了市場份額增長的機會。厄尼和納迪姆，我將邀請你們對這兩個問題發表評論。

Sure. This is Nadim. Talking about the capacity creation from the risk transfer transactions as a commercial standpoint is extremely important for us. Darryl and Tayfun both mentioned the subdued loan and demand environment, which does exist. Businesses are still cautious, wait and watch mode before making new capital investments or optimizing their balance sheet, reducing revolver utilization, especially in the working capital-heavy businesses. But what I will say is that customer sentiment has improved this quarter versus last quarter, and I expect that trend to continue. And despite the environmental headwinds, mitigating this is our diversified portfolio and momentum in new client acquisition, including in our integrated treasury and payments platform in both countries.

當然。這是納迪姆。從商業角度談論風險轉移交易的產能創造對我們來說極為重要。達裡爾和泰豐都提到了貸款和需求環境低迷的情況，而這種情況確實存在。企業在進行新的資本投資或優化資產負債表之前仍保持謹慎、觀望的態度，減少循環利用率，尤其是在營運資本密集的企業中。但我要說的是，本季的客戶情緒比上季有所改善，我預計這種趨勢將持續下去。儘管存在環境阻力，但我們的多元化投資組合和新客戶獲取勢頭（包括我們在兩國的綜合財務和支付平台）緩解了這個問題。

If you look at Canada, although we showed flat quarter-over-quarter loan growth in the month of January, point-to-point, we had strong momentum and that momentum has continued into Q2. In the U.S. we showed quarter-over-quarter loan growth just under 2%, which is at the higher end of our peer growth. And in both countries, our pipelines on loans and deposits has increased. So overall, the capacity creation is extremely welcomed on the commercial side, and I believe, positions us extremely well. And as we've done through past cycles, we are now in a strong position to accelerate as the environment rebounds and take share. And this time, it's off of an even bigger platform.

如果你看看加拿大，儘管我們一月份的貸款環比增長持平，但我們的勢頭強勁，並且這種勢頭一直持續到第二季​​度。在美國，我們的季度貸款成長率略低於 2%，處於同業成長的較高水準。在這兩個國家，我們的貸款和存款管道都有所增加。因此，總體而言，產能建設在商業方面非常受歡迎，我相信這使我們處於非常有利的地位。正如我們在過去的周期中所做的那樣，我們現在處於有利地位，可以隨著環境的反彈並搶佔份額而加速發展。這一次，它是在一個更大的平台上進行的。

Got it. Just one very quick follow-up, Tayfun, I think you mentioned revenue in Corporate segment negative $200 million to $225 million or $250 million. That's a pretty meaningful change from last year. If you don't mind, what do you think the net income or net loss contribution from Corp segment will be for the rest of the year?

知道了。只是一個非常快速的後續行動，Tayfun，我想您提到了企業部門的收入為負 2 億美元至 2.25 億美元或 2.5 億美元。與去年相比，這是一個非常有意義的改變。如果您不介意，您認為公司部門今年剩餘時間的淨利或淨虧損貢獻將是多少？

Look, I mean I think I gave you the revenue guidance, Ebrahim. Expenses are on the low end. As I've said before, we will give you some guidance for net income. But overall, I think the guidance on revenues should be a good level to forecast the net income piece as well. There's, of course, is corporate revenues are difficult to analyze from outside. I tried to clarify it with these idiosyncratic items. I'll be happy to give more details on that as well.

聽著，我的意思是我想我給了你收入指導，易卜拉欣。費用處於低端。正如我之前所說，我們將為您提供一些淨收入指導。但整體而言，我認為收入指引也應該是預測淨利的良好水準。當然，企業收入很難從外部進行分析。我試著用這些特殊的東西來澄清它。我也很樂意提供更多細節。

Purchase accounting accretion does have an impact overall. But on a year-over-year basis, on revenues, the larger portion came from our earnings on equity in the first quarter of last year, that was almost 2/3 of the year-over-year change. And then there were some higher liquidity costs compared to last year's first quarter. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, on net interest income in corporates, it was a combination of purchase accounting accretion, change and then higher liquidity cost on net noninterest revenues. The impact came from the market volatility impact on fair market values on a portion of our hedge portfolio, which always is sort of related to volatility during a quarter. But over time, that converges back to 0. Some quarters are positive, some quarters are negative. This quarter just happens to be a negative one. So our guidance on revenues is better for the rest of the year, barring any changes in market volatility.

購買會計增值確實會產生整體影響。但與去年同期相比，就收入而言，更大的一部分來自去年第一季的股本收益，幾乎佔同比變化的2/3。與去年第一季相比，流動性成本也有所上升。從季度環比來看，企業淨利息收入是購買會計成長、變動以及淨非利息收入流動性成本上升的綜合因素。影響來自市場波動對我們部分對沖投資組合的公平市場價值的影響，這總是與季度波動有關。但隨著時間的推移，這個數值會收斂到 0。有些季度是正值，有些季度是負值。這個季度恰好是一個負面的季度。因此，除非市場波動發生任何變化，否則我們對今年剩餘時間的收入指引會更好。

The next question is from Meny Grauman, Scotiabank.

下一個問題來自豐業銀行的 Meny Grauman。

Maybe following up on Ebrahim's question. Darryl, I'm curious, if you look forward, would you say you'd be more cautious pulling the trigger on risk transfer transactions going forward, considering where your capital ratio is and considering the more challenged revenue environment? Maybe it's an obvious answer, but I thought I'd pose it, curious for your thoughts on that.

也許是在跟進易卜拉欣的問題。達裡爾，我很好奇，如果您展望未來，考慮到您的資本比率以及更具挑戰性的收入環境，您是否會更加謹慎地觸發未來的風險轉移交易？也許這是一個顯而易見的答案，但我想我應該提出它，很好奇你對此的想法。

Yes. Thanks Meny. The short answer is we feel like we're in a pretty good spot. You look at our CET1 ratio at 12.8%. It would be inconsistent if we said that we're removing the DRIP discount and at the same time, we felt capital constrained. We don't feel capital constrained. We're very pleased with the execution of risk transfer transactions. It's put us in part in the position that we're in. It's helped us create the capacity for when the environment becomes more constructive. So as you know, we always look at these tools to optimize balance sheet performance. It's not just for risk mitigation, but it's for the creation of future opportunities as Tayfun summarized just now. But as I look out today, we feel pretty comfortable in the organic capital generation on our balance sheet.

是的。謝謝梅尼。簡而言之，我們感覺自己處於一個非常好的位置。你看我們的 CET1 比率是 12.8%。如果我們說我們要取消 DRIP 折扣，同時又感到資金緊張，那就不一致了。我們不覺得資本受到限制。我們對風險轉移交易的執行感到非常滿意。它使我們在一定程度上處於現在的位置。它幫助我們創造了當環境變得更具建設性時的能力。如您所知，我們始終關注這些工具來優化資產負債表績效。正如Tayfun剛才總結的那樣，這不僅是為了緩解風險，更是為了創造未來的機會。但正如我今天所看到的，我們對資產負債表上的有機資本產生感到非常滿意。

And then maybe just a question for Piyush in terms of your guidance on the impaired loan PCL. Just wondering if you could provide a little more guidance in terms of timing? When do you expect to see -- what quarter you expect to see this peak? And if you could talk about your outlook for small business, especially from the impairments perspective, I think it's pretty clear what's happening on the consumer side in terms of the unsecured book of business. But what are you seeing on the small business side? And where is that expected to go?

然後也許只是問 Piyush 關於減損貸款 PCL 的指導的問題。只是想知道您是否可以在時間安排方面提供更多指導？您預計什麼時候會看到這個高峰？您預計哪個季度會看到這個高峰？如果您能談談您對小型企業的前景，特別是從減損的角度來看，我認為消費者方面在無擔保業務方面發生的情況非常清楚。但您在小型企業方面看到了什麼？預計會去哪裡？

Sure. Thanks Meny. So 2 parts. Let me just first provide the broader impaired guidance. I think I've been guiding to low 30s. And so while we've seen the steady pickup as expected in the credit environment, I think that's going to continue. There will be variability inter-quarter over the years. I would generally guide to say we expect a higher amount in the first 2 quarters. And if the rate cycle plays out as expected, it should start trading off by the end of the year. But again, the macro assumption there is how the rate cycle plays off.

當然。謝謝梅尼。所以 2 部分。讓我先提供更廣泛的受損指導。我想我已經指導到30多歲了。因此，儘管我們看到信貸環境如預期的那樣穩步回升，但我認為這種情況將持續下去。多年來，季度間會出現變化。我通常會說我們預計前兩個季度的金額會更高。如果利率週期按預期進行，那麼應該會在今年年底開始進行權衡。但同樣，宏觀假設是利率週期如何發揮作用。

As you know, we are beginning -- we are seeing continued resiliency by the Canadian consumer when it comes to the mortgages. So that's been a very good book for us. But then on the unsecured side, the insolvencies that are showing up through the Canadian consumer is what's reflective of the impaired losses. And the challenge is that even if the rate cycle changes, it will take a couple of quarters for the transmission to flow through. I think the better piece, I would say is even though we don't expect Q2 rates to come down, it's very important for business, government sentiment that if we are closer to rate cycle changes in Q3 and 4, I think you'll start seeing upgrades. So the impaired loan losses, I'm sticking to our guidance of the low 30s. And so I'm very pleased with where we landed at 29 basis points, and I expect that's going to continue with some variability, like I said, in that range.

如您所知，我們正在開始 - 我們看到加拿大消費者在抵押貸款方面持續保持彈性。所以這對我們來說是一本非常好的書。但在無擔保方面，加拿大消費者出現的破產現象反映了受損損失。挑戰在於，即使費率週期發生變化，傳輸也需要幾個季度的時間才能完成。我認為更好的是，即使我們預計第二季利率不會下降，這對企業和政府情緒非常重要，如果我們更接近第三季和第四季的利率週期變化，我認為你會開始看到升級。因此，對於減損貸款損失，我堅持我們的指導，即 30 歲以下。因此，我對我們達到 29 個基點感到非常滿意，我預計這種情況將繼續存在一些變化，就像我所說的那樣，在這個範圍內。

On your small business question, it's a very small part of our overall book. There is stress in Canada. Again, if you look at business banking insolvencies coming out of COVID, there has been a huge pickup, but we continue to manage. There are certain sectors that are more stressed but our risk underwriting criteria captures that. And so that's not a big mover of the dial in the overall impaired losses as we go forward.

關於您的小型企業問題，這只是我們整本書的一小部分。加拿大有壓力。再說一次，如果你看看新冠疫情導致的商業銀行破產情況，你會發現破產數量大幅增加，但我們仍在繼續應對。某些行業面臨的壓力更大，但我們的風險承保標準反映了這一點。因此，隨著我們的前進，這對整體減損損失的影響並不大。

The next question, Mario Mendonca, TD Securities.

下一個問題是道明證券的 Mario Mendonca。

Tayfun, I appreciate your comments on corporate. Can I ask you to look at it in a slightly different way, more on from a consolidated perspective on Page 15 of your supplement. When you talk about revenue associated with the hedging activity being weaker in the quarter or a drag this quarter, are you specifically referring to that other revenue line the $44 million adjusted this quarter. Is that what you're referring to?

Tayfun，我很欣賞你對公司的評論。我能否請您以稍微不同的方式來看待它，並更多地從補充的第 15 頁上的綜合角度來看待它。當您談到本季與對沖活動相關的收入疲軟或本季的拖累時，您是否特意指的是本季調整的 4,400 萬美元的其他收入項目。你指的是這個嗎？

It is in noninterest income, Mario. This item is not in net interest income. It's in noninterest income.

這是非利息收入，馬裡奧。該項目不屬於淨利息收入。這是非利息收入。

Sorry, that's what I meant. I mean noninterest income, revenue like the -- I hate to say it, but like the other line is what I'm...

抱歉，我就是這個意思。我的意思是非利息收入，像這樣的收入——我不想這麼說，但就像另一條線一樣，我就是…

Correct. Yes.

正確的。是的。

And so that number can move around a fair bit. Can you talk about the dynamics that caused it to be a fair bit weaker like much lower than previous quarters?

因此這個數字可能會有相當大的變動。您能談談導致其比前幾季低得多的動力嗎？

Yes. So that will be impacted by the overall interest rate volatility in the markets. And as you know, the November through January period was relatively volatile. But there will be quarters when that number will be positive. This one was a negative quarter. Over the life of the portfolio, it will converge by definition to 0. So that's the reason why we called an idiosyncratic item this quarter. It will not repeat in the same manner. And it's difficult for us to give you some guidance because we don't have a way to necessarily appropriately predict market volatility.

是的。因此，這將受到市場整體利率波動的影響。如您所知，11 月至 1 月期間相對波動。但在某些季度，這個數字將會是正值。這是一個負季度。在投資組合的生命週期中，根據定義，它將收斂於 0。這就是我們本季將其稱為特殊項目的原因。它不會以同樣的方式重複。我們很難給你一些指導，因為我們沒有辦法適當地預測市場波動。

And for clarity, there's no other line income statement of sort of revenue line that benefited...

為了清楚起見，沒有其他類似收入項目的損益表受益...

No.

不。

No. So that's just purely the effect there. Okay. The next sort of similar type of question relates to the insurance investment result. I would have expected that line to be relatively steady unless there were credit charges or fair value charges in the quarter. So with that investment result looking so weak or negative $9 million, can you talk about what drove that?

不，所以這純粹是那裡的效果。好的。下一類類似的問題涉及保險投資結果。我預期該額度將相對穩定，除非本季有信貸費用或公允價值費用。那麼，由於投資結果看起來如此疲軟或負 900 萬美元，您能談談是什麼推動了這一結果嗎？

I assume you are comparing this quarter to last quarter?

我假設您正在比較本季和上季？

Yes. Over the last few quarters.

是的。過去幾個季度。

Yes. So this is purely related to the transition in our business from IFRS 4 to IFRS 17. And as the year went on, in fiscal year '23, we started hedging our interest rate sensitivity in the second half of the year to prepare for the expected sensitivity levels under IFRS 17, which has caused an uptick in revenues in the third and fourth quarters of last year. So now that we are firmly in the year having made the transition, our outlook for that line is going to be fairly static going forward. So you will not see a similar volatility and this quarter's level is more indicative for future revenues in our insurance line.

是的。因此，這純粹與我們的業務從 IFRS 4 到 IFRS 17 的過渡有關。隨著時間的推移，在 23 財年，我們開始在下半年對沖我們的利率敏感性，為預期的情況做好準備。IFRS 17規定的敏感度水準導致去年第三和第四季的收入上升。因此，既然我們已經在這一年堅定地完成了轉型，那麼我們對這條線的展望將相當穩定。因此，您不會看到類似的波動，本季的水平更能說明我們保險產品線的未來收入。

So you'd expect to be close to 0 insurance investment income?

那麼您期望保險投資收益接近 0 嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think overall revenues in insurance was around $80 million or something like that. So that should be our guidance. That is our guidance for the next few quarters.

是的。我的意思是，我認為保險業的總收入約為 8000 萬美元左右。所以這應該是我們的指導。這是我們對未來幾季的指導。

Understood. Now Darryl, maybe you quickly, I understand that when transactions are done particularly in the U.S., it has the effect of hurting the ROE in the near term and then as synergies are materialized and you're successful in your transaction, ROE in that business should improve. First of all, is that your view on how the U.S. ROE should migrate? And what is an acceptable ROE in that U.S. business over time?

明白了。現在達裡爾，也許你很快，我明白，當交易特別是在美國進行時，它會在短期內損害股本回報率，然後隨著協同效應的實現並且你在交易中取得成功，該業務的股本報酬率應該會改進。首先，這是您對美國ROE應該如何遷移的看法嗎？隨著時間的推移，該美國企業可接受的淨資產收益率是多少？

Yes. So it's a good question, Mario. So the answer to your first question is yes. And we're currently, I would say, in the inflection point of the journey on your question, so if you go back and look at the benefits that have come and then the benefits that still are expected to come. Look, the conversion was, by all measures, world-class. The marketing campaigns are in flight. The cost synergies we've talked about. We've exceeded the initial target. And by the way, I just want to clarify on that when we say we're run rating at $800 million of synergies. That's as of February 1. That was not as of the average of the first quarter. So there's more in that tank for all of you as the rest of the year goes on than there was in the first quarter.

是的。所以這是一個很好的問題，馬裡奧。所以你的第一個問題的答案是肯定的。我想說，我們目前正處於你的問題旅程的轉折點，所以如果你回頭看看已經帶來的好處，然後看看仍然預計會帶來的好處。看，從所有方面來看，這次改造都是世界一流的。行銷活動正在進行中。我們已經討論過成本協同效應。我們已經超越了最初的目標。順便說一句，當我們說我們的協同效應評級為 8 億美元時，我只想澄清這一點。這是截至 2 月 1 日的數據。這並不是第一季的平均值。因此，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，你們所有人的油箱裡都會有比第一季更多的東西。

The capital, as you know, has been built since the acquisition, and we've held on to the deposits quite nicely in an environment where deposits have fled the system. So do we expect the ROE to accrete from there? You bet we do, because we haven't yet realized the benefit of the revenue synergies that we've also talked about. And so another way to think about it is that we put out in the window for you all, a $2 billion PPPT target for the bank, then known as Bank of the West asset that we bought, and we're standing by that because we see all of the various metrics that lead up to that as enablers coming in quite nicely as we speak.

如您所知，資本是自收購以來建立的，在存款逃離系統的環境中，我們很好地保留了存款。那麼我們是否期望 ROE 會從此增加？你敢打賭我們會這樣做，因為我們還沒有意識到我們也談過的收入綜效的好處。因此，另一種思考方式是，我們為大家提出了 20 億美元的 PPPT 目標，該銀行當時被稱為我們購買的西方銀行資產，我們堅持這一目標，因為我們就在我們說話的時候，所有導致這一目標的各種指標都作為推動因素發揮得很好。

A double-digit ROE in the U.S. then seems entirely reasonable over time?

隨著時間的推移，美國兩位數的淨資產收益率似乎完全合理？

Yes, we've been there before, and we'll be there again when we execute on this.

是的，我們以前曾經遇到過這種情況，當我們執行此操作時，我們將再次遇到這種情況。

The next question is from Gabriel Dechaine, National Bank Financial.

下一個問題來自國家銀行金融部門的 Gabriel Dechaine。

First question for Piyush. You talked about your expectation for impaired PCL, the trajectory. I'm maybe putting words in your mouth here, hopefully I'm not, but you're sounding like a little bit of an uptick here in Q2, but improving in the second half as rate cuts materialize, correct me if I'm wrong there. I'm wondering about what about the performing provision. If these rate cuts keep getting pushed back for whatever reason, is there any upward pressure on your performing provision? Like what's built in there? If you can dumb it down to that level, that would be great, so that we know what to expect?

Piyush 的第一個問題。您談到了您對 PCL 受損的期望，即軌跡。我可能會在這裡把話放在你嘴裡，希望我沒有，但你聽起來第二季度略有上升，但隨著降息的實現，下半年有所改善，如果我是這樣，請糾正我在那裡錯了。我想知道表演條款怎麼樣。如果無論出於何種原因，這些降息措施不斷被推遲，您的績效準備金是否有上行壓力？例如裡面建了什麼？如果你能把它簡化到這個水平，那就太好了，這樣我們就知道會發生什麼？

Sure, Gabriel. So on the impaired PCL, look, in any quarter, I wouldn't take 1 quarter's number as the number, it's going to be variable quarter-to-quarter as things happen. So this credit cycle has come off for a long time, and it's come with a cheaper slope. So it's picked up very quickly, which is why you've seen the rapid buildup and impact PCLs. And I think in Q2, my expectation is, as this trend continues, it will be a tad bit up. I can't exactly point to what basis points. We also have, as you know, risk mitigation actions in place, so we benefit from those. And so depending on the name that's in impaired versus what's in our risk management, risk mitigation, we will get some benefit. So yes, a tad bit up, but I think then down and I look at it over the year and over the year, like I said, low 30s, I feel very confident about. At the moment, if something changes, obviously, we'll keep you posted.

當然，加布里埃爾。因此，在受損的 PCL 上，看，在任何季度，我都不會以 1 個季度的數字作為數字，隨著事情的發生，它會隨著季度的變化而變化。因此，這個信貸週期已經結束很長一段時間了，而且它的斜率也更便宜。所以它的恢復速度非常快，這就是為什麼你會看到 PCL 的快速成長和影響。我認為在第二季度，我的預期是，隨著這種趨勢的持續，它會略有上升。我無法準確指出什麼基點。如您所知，我們還採取了風險緩解措施，因此我們可以從中受益。因此，根據受損的名稱與我們的風險管理、風險緩解的名稱，我們將獲得一些好處。所以，是的，有點上升，但我認為然後下降，我一年又一年地審視它，就像我說的，低 30 歲，我感到非常有信心。目前，如果有任何變化，顯然我們會及時通知您。

I think the performing PCL is a little bit of a longer story. Let me take a few seconds to just unpeel or explain the build in the context of what we did this quarter. So the first piece on the $154 million build is, of course, the credit migration that causes the upward build. The second piece is really around a few model updates. And the model updates are as we completed the integration of Bank of the West models, we got a richness of data that allowed us or guided us in the expected losses of our own existing portfolios under different economic scenarios. We've been considering many of these variables through expert credit judgment. This time, we let go of the expert credit judgment because now it's built into the model. And I see this more as a onetime from an M&A and the integration. And so when we have the next M&A, we'll have more data from another bank. But at this time, the expert credit judgment flows into the updated models, which I think are good because they inform us of what can happen through different trajectories.

我認為表演 PCL 的故事有點長。讓我花幾秒鐘的時間來揭開或解釋我們本季所做工作的背景下的建構。因此，1.54 億美元建設的第一部分當然是導致向上建設的信貸遷移。第二部分其實是圍繞著一些模型更新。模型更新是當我們完成西方銀行模型的整合時，我們獲得了豐富的數據，這些數據允許我們或指導我們在不同的經濟情境下預測我們現有投資組合的預期損失。我們一直透過專家信用判斷來考慮其中的許多變數。這一次，我們放棄了專家信用判斷，因為它現在已內建在模型中。我認為這更像是併購和整合的一次性成果。因此，當我們進行下一次併購時，我們將從另一家銀行獲得更多數據。但此時，專家信用判斷流入更新的模型中，我認為這很好，因為它們告訴我們透過不同的軌跡會發生什麼。

So we'll continue to keep our models in good standing as required, but the integration impact, like I said, was a onetime event. And so that's the $154 million. I do want to point out that you will see on Page 21 in our foreign exchange and other, a larger release and that larger release actually includes an $87 million release for our RV portfolio, that typically would have gone and netted against the $154 million, but under accounting standards, it's reflected in our gain or loss on sale of the RV book. So that's in the revenue line.

因此，我們將繼續根據需要保持我們的模型的良好信譽，但正如我所說，整合的影響是一次性的。這就是 1.54 億美元。我確實想指出，您將在第21 頁上看到我們的外匯交易和其他內容，更大的釋放，而更大的釋放實際上包括我們的RV 投資組合的8700 萬美元釋放，通常會從1.54億美元中扣除，但根據會計準則，它反映在我們出售 RV 書籍的損益中。這就是收入線。

And so if I just bring all of this full circle, what's really important is where we land on the outcome. And so our Q1 provision at $3.5 billion is a tad bit lower than where we began the quarter, and our coverage is 55 basis points, which is very similar to what you've seen in the last few quarters. And so I feel very good about our prudent coverage of 55 basis points in the credit cycle where we are. And of course, we'll continue to look at scenarios and look at how the data in our credit portfolio shows up as we get to making decisions every quarter. So just again, to unpeel that to give you some more information how we reached where we reached.

因此，如果我把所有這些都帶回來，真正重要的是我們得出的結果。因此，我們第一季的準備金為 35 億美元，比本季開始時的水平略低，我們的覆蓋範圍為 55 個基點，這與您在過去幾個季度看到的情況非常相似。因此，我對我們目前信貸週期中 55 個基點的審慎覆蓋感到非常滿意。當然，我們將繼續研究各種情景，並在每個季度做出決策時研究信貸投資組合中的數據如何顯示。因此，再次揭開這一點，為您提供更多信息，了解我們如何達到我們所達到的目標。

Okay. Great. I might need to follow up on that, but Tayfun in the interest of time, can you give me the numbers that are associated with your credit mark? What's been recognized to date as far as, I guess, recoveries? And what the remaining balance is and the time line you expect to see the most impact from that unwind?

好的。偉大的。我可能需要跟進一下，但是 Tayfun 為了節省時間，您能給我與您的信用評分相關的數字嗎？我想，迄今為止，就康復而言，人們已經認識到了什麼？剩餘餘額是多少，以及您期望看到此次放鬆帶來最大影響的時間線？

I assume you're talking about the purchase accounting accretion numbers. Yes, I think we have not necessarily given out actual numbers, Gabriel. But I think the year-over-year change in purchase accounting accretion, which may give you some aspects of the impact on revenues is probably $250 million to $300 million.

我假設您正在談論購買會計成長數字。是的，我認為我們不一定給出實際數字，加布里埃爾。但我認為採購會計成長的年比變化可能會為你帶來2.5億至3億美元的收入影響，這可能會為你帶來某些方面的影響。

Lower this year?

今年降了？

Correct. Compared to last year, full year over full year.

正確的。與去年相比，全年比全年。

Yes, Q1 versus Q1 -- or I'm not sure, I follow you, actually.

是的，Q1 與 Q1——或者我不確定，實際上我同意你的觀點。

It's a -- so if you add up purchase accounting accretion for the full year '23 and compare it to the full year of '24, you'll probably see about a $300 million type of decrease in purchase accounting accretion.

因此，如果您將 23 年全年的採購會計成長加起來，並將其與 24 年全年進行比較，您可能會發現採購會計成長減少了約 3 億美元。

Okay. Okay. Okay. Here you go. I was overthinking it. And talk to you end of March, Tayfun.

好的。好的。好的。幹得好。我想太多了。 Tayfun，三月底與您交談。

Next question is from Doug Young, Desjardins Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Desjardins Capital Markets 的 Doug Young。

I'll make it just quick. Tayfun, just that purchase accounting change year-over-year, how much of that is just a normal roll off? How much of that was because of risk transfer transactions or sale of portfolios like the RV book?

我會做得很快。 Tayfun，只是購買會計同比發生變化，其中有多少只是正常的滾存？其中有多少是由於風險轉移交易或出售 RV 帳簿等投資組合造成的？

A portion of that, clearly, what sped up some of the accretion in the earlier parts of the acquisition does relate to the RV transaction because we captured some of that accretion in our net gain calculation. So that's the part of the reason why going forward, accretion numbers have come down. And there's a natural degradation because as we continue to capture more of it. And in these types of acquisitions, you tend to capture more at the beginning parts of the cycle, and then it just gets reduced as you go down the line. But it did have -- the RV transaction did have a discrete impact.

顯然，其中一部分加速了收購早期部分的成長確實與 RV 交易有關，因為我們在淨收益計算中捕捉了其中的一些成長。這就是未來吸積量下降的部分原因。而且隨著我們不斷捕獲更多的物質，就會出現自然退化。在這些類型的收購中，你往往會在周期的開始部分捕獲更多，然後隨著你的深入，它就會減少。但它確實產生了——房車交易確實產生了離散的影響。

Okay. And then, Darryl, in your prepared remarks, you talked about the expense savings from Bank of the West and the other $400 million from other actions. And you talked about accelerating and you talked about the $800 million being as a sub first and more to come. You seem excited that there's more to come. Are you indicating that you think you can get more than what you've talked about? And then I guess the flip side of this or to continue on with that discussion around expenses, how confident are you around achieving the positive operating leverage? So I'm just curious about all the different moving pieces on the expense and the revenue side that gives you that confidence.

好的。然後，達裡爾，在您準備好的發言中，您談到了西方銀行節省的開支以及透過其他行動節省的 4 億美元。你談到了加速發展，談到了 8 億美元首先是作為替補，然後還會有更多。你似乎很興奮，因為還有更多的事情即將發生。你是否表明你認為你能得到的比你所談論的更多？然後我想另一方面，或繼續圍繞費用進行討論，您對實現正營運槓桿有多大信心？因此，我只是對支出和收入方面的所有不同變化因素感到好奇，這些因素可以給您帶來信心。

Yes. No, I wasn't -- Doug, I want to be clear. I wasn't signaling that we think there's necessarily more to come. What I was commenting on is the point that we're at in the trajectory on the delivery and reminding you all that of the $800 million, we're clocking in at that post February 1, not entirely pre-February 1. And then of the $400 million -- and by the way, we mix currencies on you on this. So I'll remind you the $800 million is U.S. and then the $400 million is Canadian. And on the $400 million, I think Typhoon explained that we're $325 million through it, and then we've got the other $75 million to go. So as -- what I was trying to do for you for your model, Doug, is to emphasize that as you go through Q2 and then particularly into Q3 and Q4, the totality of the expense delivery programs increase for us relative to what we're delivering for you right now. Is that helpful?

是的。不，我不是——道格，我想澄清一下。我並不是暗示我們認為還會有更多的事情發生。我所評論的是，我們正處於交付軌跡中，並提醒大家，8 億美元，我們是在 2 月 1 日，而不是完全在 2 月 1 日之前。4 億美元 — 順便說一下，我們在這方面對你混合貨幣。所以我要提醒您，8 億美元是美國的，4 億美元是加拿大的。關於 4 億美元，我認為 Typhoon 解釋說，我們透過它獲得了 3.25 億美元，然後我們還有另外 7500 萬美元。因此，道格，我試圖為您的模型做的就是強調，當您經歷第二季度，特別是第三季度和第四季度時，我們的費用交付計劃的總量相對於我們的支出有所增加。現在正在為您送貨。有幫助嗎？

That is, yes.

也就是說，是的。

The next question, Mike Rizvanovic, KBW Research.

下一個問題是來自 KBW Research 的 Mike Rizvanovic。

Just a quick question on your margin trajectory here. So down at the all bank level, and then up in Canada, and I think flattish in the U.S. So I'm wondering when you guide to a higher negative NII line in corporate, is that where we should see the improvement, if, in fact, you are able to get some margin accretion at the all bank level maybe second half of this year or perhaps just heading into 2025. I'm just wondering where those moving parts will land?

這裡只是簡單問一下您的利潤軌跡。因此，在所有銀行層面上都下降了，然後在加拿大上升了，我認為在美國持平。所以我想知道，當你引導企業的NII負值更高時，我們應該在哪裡看到改善，如果事實上，也許在今年下半年或進入2025 年，你就能夠在整個銀行層面獲得一些利潤增長。我只是想知道這些移動部件將落在哪裡？

Yes. I think this quarter, we have seen a little bit of a higher deposit price competition than we were expecting. That's the reason why it came down 6 basis points. In terms of the NII line in Corporate Services, yes, we do expect that line to come down from the Q4 levels, which will somewhat contribute to the stability of the margin because this concept of higher reinvestment yields balancing the deposit pricing competition and term migration is real, and it's coming through across -- we do reflect that was not only on the corporate side, but also in businesses. So we're pretty confident that the outlook for the rest of the year is very tight and stable from here.

是的。我認為本季度，我們看到存款價格競爭比我們預期的要激烈一些。這就是它下跌6個基點的原因。就企業服務中的NII線而言，是的，我們確實預計該線將從第四季度的水平下降，這將在一定程度上有助於保證利潤率的穩定，因為更高再投資收益率的概念平衡了存款定價競爭和期限遷移這是真實的，而且它正在被人們所接受——我們確實反映出這不僅是在公司方面，而且也在企業方面。因此，我們非常有信心，今年剩餘時間的前景非常緊張和穩定。

Okay. So you're still confident that you could see margins move higher all bank level, even if rates are declining possibly towards the end of the year and heading into 2025. Is that a fair assessment?

好的。因此，您仍然有信心看到所有銀行的利潤率都會上升，即使利率可能在年底和 2025 年之前下降。這是一個公平的評估嗎？

Yes. Our outlook does contain an interest rate view that the Fed and Bank of Canada will start pulling the short-term rates down. I would not guide you to a significant increase in our margin if it's a couple of basis points, I'm more guiding you towards a stable enterprise level consolidated NIM outlook.

是的。我們的利率前景確實包含聯準會和加拿大央行將開始下調短期利率的觀點。如果是幾個基點的話，我不會引導您大幅增加我們的利潤，我更會引導您實現穩定的企業級綜合淨利差前景。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then just I wanted to quickly ask Darryl. I think in your prepared remarks, sorry, I think you made a reference to rates coming down, which should help across different aspects of your business lines. And I'm just wondering if you could sort of qualify that. When you're seeing lower rates, are you just talking about the short end of the curve Bank of Canada? Or are you, in fact, expecting an across the spectrum or across the yield curve duration like an across the board movement in rates downward? I'm just wondering what you're sort of modeling in your own projections there?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後我就想趕緊問達裡爾。我認為在您準備好的發言中，抱歉，我認為您提到了費率下降，這應該有助於您業務線的不同方面。我只是想知道你是否可以對此進行限定。當您看到較低的利率時，您是否只是在談論加拿大銀行的曲線短端？或者事實上，您是否預期整個範圍或整個殖利率曲線的持續時間都會像利率全面下行一樣？我只是想知道你在自己的預測中是如何建模的？

Yes. Look, Mike, I'm happy to take you through the sort of base case with the obvious notation that this has been a difficult game for anybody on the planet to be forecasting. But our base case does suggest that in the second half of the year, probably starting around July, we will begin to see a reduction in the short-term administered rates, so both in Canada and in the U.S. As far as the amount that we expect over the course of the second half of the calendar year, if you want to think about it that way, remembering that the calendar year is not the same as the fiscal year for the Canadian banks. Of course, we're in the neighborhood of 100 basis points from the July period to the end of the calendar year, not capturing all of that in our fiscal naturally.

是的。聽著，麥克，我很高興帶您了解這種基本情況，並明顯指出這對地球上的任何人來說都是一場難以預測的遊戲。但我們的基本情況確實表明，在今年下半年，可能從 7 月左右開始，我們將開始看到短期管理利率的下降，因此無論是在加拿大還是在美國。預計在日曆年下半年，如果你想這樣考慮的話，請記住日曆年與加拿大銀行的財政年度不同。當然，從 7 月到日曆年年底，我們的利率在 100 個基點左右，並沒有自然地在我們的財政中涵蓋所有這些內容。

And look, as you look at the longer end of the curve, I think we should probably see some commensurate reduction there as well, but maybe not to the same degree. So you could see some steepening as we go through. That's our base case. And you will all have your own base cases to overlay on that, but that's the way we see it relative to the economic performance that we expect in both the Canadian and U.S. economies.

看，當你觀察曲線的較長一端時，我認為我們可能也會看到一些相應的減少，但可能程度不同。所以當我們經歷時你會看到一些陡峭的情況。這是我們的基本情況。你們都會有自己的基本情況來疊加，但這就是我們相對於我們預期的加拿大和美國經濟表現的看法。

Next question from Darko Mihelic, RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 RBC 資本市場部門的 Darko Mihelic。

In the interest of time, I'll be very quick. You mentioned that the change in taxation on dividends is about a $50 million reduction in trading revenue. I'm assuming that's a 1-month impact. Should I just be annualizing that? Or is there a better way to tell me the headwind from that maybe from an earnings perspective for 2024?

考慮到時間的關係，我會很快的。您提到股息稅的變化導致交易收入減少約 5000 萬美元。我假設這是 1 個月的影響。我應該將其每年化嗎？或者有沒有更好的方法來告訴我從 2024 年獲利角度來看可能帶來的阻力？

Actually, it is not just a 1-month impact. It covers most of the quarter. I would suggest that if you are going to add it in your model, I would use like a $60 million type of number for -- on a quarterly basis for the remainder of the year. So the $50 million doesn't go to $100 million, it just goes to $60 million on a quarterly basis.

事實上，這不僅是1個月的影響。它涵蓋了本季度的大部分時間。我建議，如果您要將其添加到模型中，我會在今年剩餘時間內按季度使用 6000 萬美元的數字。因此，5000 萬美元不會變成 1 億美元，而只是按季度變成 6000 萬美元。

And that's just revenues? Or are you talking about taxes?

這還只是收入？還是你在談稅收？

Revenues in Capital Markets.

資本市場的收入。

Next question from Paul Holden, CIBC.

下一個問題來自 CIBC 的 Paul Holden。

A couple of follow-up questions to what I think are important discussions on the call. First, just with respect to balance sheet or asset growth. Obviously, you've taken a number of actions over the last 12 months to manage assets in RWA. It sounds like maybe we've reached an inflection point, both because you now have the capital to grow the balance sheet again. And b, to the points being raised, you're starting to see improved demand as well. So maybe give us a sense of how the balance sheet may grow from here through '24? And what kind of impact declining interest rates might have on that view as well?

我認為電話會議中重要討論的幾個後續問題。首先，僅就資產負債表或資產成長而言。顯然，您在過去 12 個月中採取了許多行動來管理 RWA 中的資產。聽起來我們可能已經到達了一個轉捩點，因為你現在有資本再次擴大資產負債表。 b，對於所提出的觀點，您也開始看到需求的改善。那麼也許可以讓我們了解從現在到 24 年資產負債表將如何成長？利率下降可能會對這種觀點產生什麼樣的影響？

Yes. So I mean, look, as both Darryl and I said, we have proactively executed a number of these transactions to create room on our balance sheet for growth. And as -- again, I'm going to turn it over to Ernie and Nadim in terms of asset growth for the future, but we believe that we've prepared our balance sheet both from a capital and liquidity perspective for growth in the future. In terms of timing, I'm going to turn it over to you guys.

是的。所以我的意思是，正如達裡爾和我所說，我們已經主動執行了許多此類交易，為我們的資產負債表創造成長空間。再次，我將把未來資產成長的問題交給厄尼和納迪姆，但我們相信，我們已經從資本和流動性的角度準備了資產負債表，以實現未來的成長。至於時間安排，我將把它交給你們。

I can start, it's Ernie. If I think about Canada, we do see us growing probably in the low mid-single digits on mortgages and our card book, et cetera. In the U.S., I would say we're probably in the low single digits on our loan growth, just a reflection of our growth position given our marine RV sale and our indirect auto exit. I'll turn it over to Nadim for his comments.

我可以開始了，我是厄尼。如果我想想加拿大，我們確實會看到我們的抵押貸款和信用卡等方面的成長可能處於中低個位數。在美國，我想說，我們的貸款成長可能處於較低的個位數，這只是考慮到我們的船用房車銷售和間接汽車退出，我們的成長狀況的反映。我會將其轉交給納迪姆徵求他的意見。

Okay. For the commercial side, I would say to expect low single-digit loan growth on both sides of the border in the near term, building to a more mid-single-digit loan growth as we move into the latter half of the year, which is the guidance that we had originally provided last quarter, which was mid-single digit by the end of the full year.

好的。對於商業方面，我預計短期內邊境兩側的貸款成長將保持在較低的個位數，隨著進入下半年，貸款成長將達到中個位數，這是我們最初在上個季度提供的指導，到年底時為中個位數。

Okay. And then, Darryl, I want to come back to sort of the line of questioning Mario had on the ROE, but his question was specific to the U.S. bank. I want to ask a similar question for the Canadian bank, just given all of the changes that have happened with CET1 requirements, Basel III, your increased usage of risk transfer, et cetera. Does anything change in terms of your long-term ROE expectations? Or is this still a bank that should be able to produce a mid-teen ROE when things normalize?

好的。然後，達裡爾，我想回到馬裡奧對 ROE 的提問，但他的問題是針對美國銀行的。我想向加拿大銀行提出類似的問題，考慮到 CET1 要求、巴塞爾 III 以及風險轉移使用增加等方面發生的所有變化。您的長期 ROE 預期有什麼改變嗎？或者當情況正常化時，這仍然是一家能夠產生中等青少年淨資產收益率的銀行嗎？

Yes. You'll have seen, Paul, and it's a good question. You'll have seen when we updated our medium-term target disclosure at the end of the year. We didn't change the medium-term ROE target. So that's a conscious decision. That's an active decision. So when we say we've got an objective of 15% or higher. That remains the case. So there isn't a question that the industrial changes have had an impact on the ability to deliver that. And it's also the case that if you go back a couple of years, we were closer to 20% than we were to 15%. So with that as a buffer as I look out going forward and we execute against these programs, we're holding that. And I remind everybody that's a medium-term target.

是的。保羅，你會看到的，這是一個很好的問題。當我們在年底更新中期目標揭露時，您將會看到。我們沒有改變中期 ROE 目標。所以這是一個有意識的決定。這是一個積極的決定。因此，當我們說我們的目標是 15% 或更高時。情況仍然如此。因此，毫無疑問，工業變革對實現這一目標的能力產生了影響。而且如果你回到幾年前，你會發現我們更接近 20%，而不是 15%。因此，當我展望未來並針對這些程序執行時，我們將以此為緩衝，我們將保留這一點。我提醒大家這是一個中期目標。

Thank you. This is all the time we have for questions today. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Darryl White. Please go ahead.

謝謝。這是我們今天所有的提問時間。我現在想把會議交給達裡爾懷特。請繼續。

Well, thank you, everyone, for your questions. We apologize for going a little long, but we wanted to get your questions in, given that we started a little late. As you've heard this morning, we're proactively positioning ourselves for an environment of future growth, and we're confident in the power of this integrated North American franchise that delivers consistent and differentiated performance to help our clients make real financial progress. We look forward to speaking to you all again in May. Thanks, everyone.

好的，謝謝大家提出的問題。我們很抱歉說得有點長，但考慮到我們開始得有點晚，我們希望了解您的問題。正如您今天早上所聽到的，我們正在積極為未來成長的環境做好準備，我們對這家北美綜合特許經營公司的力量充滿信心，它能夠提供一致和差異化的業績，幫助我們的客戶取得真正的財務進步。我們期待在五月再次與大家交談。感謝大家。

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.

謝謝。會議現已結束。此時請斷開您的線路，我們感謝您的參與。