Bumble Inc (BMBL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Bumble's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

    美好的一天,謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Bumble 2022 年第三季度電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Cherryl Valenzuela, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人,投資者關係副總裁 Cherryl Valenzuela。請繼續。

  • Cherryl Valenzuela - VP of IR

    Cherryl Valenzuela - VP of IR

  • Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us to discuss Bumble's third quarter financial results. With me today are Whitney Wolfe Herd, Founder and CEO; Tariq Shaukat, President; and Anu Subramanian, CFO of Bumble.

    謝謝運營商,也感謝大家加入我們討論 Bumble 第三季度的財務業績。今天和我在一起的是創始人兼首席執行官 Whitney Wolfe Herd; Tariq Shaukat,總裁;和 Bumble 的首席財務官 Anu Subramanian。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call today are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties and reflect our current expectations based on our beliefs, assumptions and information currently available to us.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒大家,今天在電話會議上發表的某些聲明是前瞻性聲明。這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險和不確定性的影響,反映了我們基於我們目前可獲得的信念、假設和信息的當前預期。

  • Although we believe these expectations are reasonable, we undertake no obligation to revise any statements to reflect changes that occur after this call. Descriptions of these factors and other risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements are discussed in more detail in our earnings press release and filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, and our subsequent periodic filings.

    儘管我們認為這些預期是合理的,但我們沒有義務修改任何聲明以反映此次電話會議後發生的變化。在我們的收益新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中更詳細地討論了可能導致實際結果與這些前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的這些因素和其他風險的描述,包括我們截至 10-K 年度的年度報告2021 年 12 月 31 日,以及我們隨後的定期文件。

  • During the call, we also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or in isolation from our GAAP results. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are available in today's earnings press release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.bumble.com.

    在電話會議期間,我們還提到了某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些非 GAAP 措施應作為我們 GAAP 結果的補充,而不是替代或孤立於我們的 GAAP 結果。與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對賬可在今天的收益新聞稿中找到,該新聞稿可在我們網站 ir.bumble.com 的投資者關係部分獲取。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Whitney.

    有了這個,我會把它交給惠特尼。

  • Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

    Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Cherryl, and thank you all for joining us today. Our Q3 results demonstrate the strength and resilience of our brands and our business amidst a challenging global operating environment. I want to lead by restating that love is a universal and fundamental human need. How we deliver for this global need evolves, but we are well positioned to deliver for our members at scale.

    謝謝 Cherryl,感謝大家今天加入我們。我們的第三季度業績展示了我們品牌和業務在充滿挑戰的全球運營環境中的實力和韌性。我想首先重申,愛是人類普遍和基本的需求。我們為這一全球需求提供服務的方式在不斷發展,但我們已做好充分準備為我們的會員大規模提供服務。

  • In the third quarter, we delivered solid top line growth of 17% year-over-year, driven by 28% growth for Bumble App. Adjusted for both FX and the Ukraine conflict, Bumble Inc. revenue growth would have been 10 points higher and Bumble App revenue growth would have been 5 points higher. We maintained a strong focus on cash flow and profitability, delivering record adjusted EBITDA of $62 million in the third quarter, surpassing our outlook.

    在第三季度,在 Bumble App 28% 的增長推動下,我們實現了 17% 的穩健收入同比增長。針對外彙和烏克蘭衝突進行調整後,Bumble Inc. 的收入增長將高出 10 個百分點,而 Bumble App 的收入增長將高出 5 個百分點。我們始終高度關注現金流和盈利能力,第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 達到創紀錄的 6200 萬美元,超出了我們的預期。

  • Bumble App continued its momentum in Q3, gaining download share in both core and international expansion markets while exceeding our expectations for both new user growth and reengaged users. Monetization was also strong as paying users accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to a record 164,000 sequential net adds.

    Bumble App 在第三季度繼續保持增長勢頭,在核心和國際擴展市場上獲得了下載份額,同時超出了我們對新用戶增長和重新參與用戶的預期。付費用戶連續第四個季度加速增長,達到創紀錄的 164,000 連續淨增加,貨幣化也很強勁。

  • International expansion continued to propel Bumble App's growth with strong increases in users and payers across Western Europe, Asia Pacific and Latin America. Our strategy and new management structure for Badoo are starting to deliver, and we have made progress in stabilizing Badoo. Sequential net adds increased for the first time since Q4 2021, and we achieved positive revenue growth after adjusting for the impact of FX and the conflict in Ukraine. We achieved these results against the backdrop of a very uncertain geopolitical and macroeconomic environment.

    隨著西歐、亞太地區和拉丁美洲的用戶和付款人的強勁增長,國際擴張繼續推動 Bumble App 的增長。我們的 Badoo 戰略和新管理結構開始發揮作用,我們在穩定 Badoo 方面取得了進展。自 2021 年第四季度以來,環比淨增首次出現增長,在調整了外彙和烏克蘭衝突的影響後,我們實現了收入正增長。我們在非常不確定的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境的背景下取得了這些成果。

  • While these results are strong, our third quarter revenue adjusted for FX headwinds came in just shy of our previous expectations. There are 2 factors that drove this, which will also impact Q4. Now let me provide more context for each. First, in Q3, we encountered some design and user engagement issues related to new product launches on our core profile page.

    儘管這些結果很強勁,但我們根據外匯逆風調整後的第三季度收入略低於我們之前的預期。有兩個因素推動了這一點,這也將影響第四季度。現在讓我為每個人提供更多背景信息。首先,在第三季度,我們在核心資料頁面上遇到了一些與新產品發布相關的設計和用戶參與問題。

  • As a result, we made the decision to delay these launches, including monetized compliments. That's our message before match feature. We have addressed the issues, and these features have started rolling out 8 to 10 weeks behind plan. Notably, fully monetized compliment is now live in Australia, Germany, Canada and parts of the U.S., including New York and New England.

    因此,我們決定推遲這些發布,包括貨幣化的讚美。這是我們的比賽前消息功能。我們已經解決了這些問題,並且這些功能已經開始推出,比計劃晚了 8 到 10 週。值得注意的是,完全貨幣化的讚美現在在澳大利亞、德國、加拿大和美國部分地區(包括紐約和新英格蘭)上線。

  • We anticipate completing the U.S. rollout and progressing to our remaining markets throughout Q4 and into early 2023. Our results were also impacted by the increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment in late Q3 and Q4. User engagement and new user growth are strong in both our core markets and our international expansion markets.

    我們預計將在整個第四季度和 2023 年初完成美國的推出並進入我們的其餘市場。我們的業績也受到第三季度末和第四季度日益嚴峻的宏觀經濟環境的影響。我們的核心市場和國際擴張市場的用戶參與度和新用戶增長都很強勁。

  • Importantly, we have seen no impact on new subscriptions. However, some of our user segments are facing greater pressure on disposable income, and these segments are renewing their subscriptions at a modestly lower rate. We are actively adjusting our marketing approach to ensure that we highlight the comparative value of our offerings to other dating alternatives and modifying our merchandising and payer retention strategies.

    重要的是,我們沒有看到對新訂閱的影響。然而,我們的一些用戶群體面臨著更大的可支配收入壓力,這些群體的續訂率略低。我們正在積極調整我們的營銷方式,以確保我們突出我們的產品相對於其他約會選擇的比較價值,並修改我們的商品銷售和付款人保留策略。

  • Notwithstanding these items, our business remains strong. Bumble App revenue grew to $181 million in Q3, up 28% year-over-year. Paying user growth remained strong in Q3, with sequential net adds accelerating to $164,000. We continue to grow download share in both core and international expansion markets with share gains across all of our major regions and strong year-over-year performance in the U.S., Canada, U.K. and Australia.

    儘管有這些項目,我們的業務仍然強勁。 Bumble App 收入在第三季度增長至 1.81 億美元,同比增長 28%。第三季度付費用戶增長依然強勁,環比淨增長加速至 164,000 美元。我們在核心和國際擴展市場的下載份額繼續增長,在我們所有主要地區的份額都有所增長,並且在美國、加拿大、英國和澳大利亞的同比表現強勁。

  • Notably, we are continuing to see strength in our Gen Z user growth in both our core and our international growth markets. According to the research group Morning Consult, Bumble has the highest net brand favorability and Net Promoter Scores with the 18- to 29-year-old and 30- to 44-year-old segment is the major dating brands that they track in the U.S. This speaks to the unique strength of our brand, which is the foundation for the strong performance that we have delivered all year.

    值得注意的是,我們繼續看到我們的核心和國際增長市場的 Z 世代用戶增長強勁。根據研究機構 Morning Consult 的數據,Bumble 擁有最高的淨品牌好感度和淨推薦值,18 至 29 歲和 30 至 44 歲的人群是他們在美國追踪的主要約會品牌。這說明了我們品牌的獨特優勢,這是我們全年取得強勁業績的基礎。

  • International expansion continues to be a critical growth driver for Bumble App. In Western Europe, we saw robust user growth and even faster revenue growth. We remained the #2 dating app in Germany, closing the gap significantly with the #1 player, and we gained a download share in Austria, France, Switzerland, Belgium and the Netherlands. Spain is our most recent launch in the region, and we have seen significant growth in registrations, MAU and revenue since early July.

    國際擴張仍然是 Bumble App 的重要增長動力。在西歐,我們看到了強勁的用戶增長和更快的收入增長。我們仍然是德國排名第二的約會應用程序,大大縮小了與排名第一的玩家之間的差距,並且我們在奧地利、法國、瑞士、比利時和荷蘭獲得了下載份額。西班牙是我們最近在該地區推出的產品,自 7 月初以來,我們的註冊量、月活躍用戶數和收入都出現了顯著增長。

  • Our Latin America and Asia expansion are performing well. India remains a notable highlight and revenue in India more than doubled year-over-year, again, demonstrating the broad global appeal of our brands and products.

    我們在拉丁美洲和亞洲的擴張表現良好。印度仍然是一個引人注目的亮點,印度的收入同比增長了一倍多,再次證明了我們的品牌和產品在全球範圍內的廣泛吸引力。

  • Between now and the end of 2023, we will build on our proven playbook to continue to actively expand internationally. We expect to complete our major launches in Europe and critically to continue to deepen our presence in each of our recently launched markets. In addition, we expect to continue our rollout in Asia and Latin America.

    從現在到 2023 年底,我們將在經過驗證的劇本的基礎上繼續積極拓展國際市場。我們希望完成我們在歐洲的主要發布,並至關重要地繼續深化我們在每個最近推出的市場中的影響力。此外,我們預計將繼續在亞洲和拉丁美洲推出。

  • Outside of the products already noted, Q3 was a very active product launch period for us. Better serving the wide range of audiences on Bumble has been a key focus. We launched improved experiences for users who want to celebrate their cultural heritage, and we improved the experience for our LGBTQIA+ audience.

    除了已經提到的產品之外,第三季度對我們來說是一個非常活躍的產品發布期。更好地為 Bumble 上的廣泛受眾提供服務一直是一個重點。我們為想要慶祝其文化遺產的用戶推出了改進的體驗,並改善了 LGBTQIA+ 觀眾的體驗。

  • We launched Astrology Tuesday offerings, which drove strong engagement with 18- to 30-year old women, in particular, we expect to continue building on this platform. We've also been focusing on developing an improved experience for our college and recent graduate communities, and we are rolling out student-only experiences for verified college students. Our first college monetization offering launched in late August, and we are pleased with the initial results.

    我們推出了 Astrology Tuesday 產品,這推動了與 18 至 30 歲女性的強烈互動,特別是我們希望繼續在此平台上進行建設。我們還一直專注於為我們的大學和最近的畢業生社區開發更好的體驗,並且我們正在為經過驗證的大學生推出僅限學生的體驗。我們的第一個大學貨幣化產品於 8 月下旬推出,我們對初步結果感到滿意。

  • In Q3, we also introduced our speed dating feature in select cities around the world. We utilized the product functionality to launch our partnership with Emmy award-winning comedy Ted Lasso, with Bantr Live by Bumble, we are bringing the fictitious dating app feature on the show to life, creating an innovative and fun way to grow and further engage Bumble users in our core English-speaking markets.

    在第三季度,我們還在全球部分城市推出了快速約會功能。我們利用產品功能與艾美獎獲獎喜劇演員 Ted Lasso 以及 Bumble 的 Bantr Live 建立了合作夥伴關係,我們將節目中虛構的約會應用程序功能變為現實,創造了一種創新且有趣的方式來發展和進一步吸引 Bumble我們核心英語市場的用戶。

  • Bantr Live takes place on Thursdays each week through the remainder of the year. We are pleased with the initial participation results that we've seen, and we're excited by the new engagement model that this product represents.

    Bantr Live 在一年中的其餘時間每週四舉行。我們對我們所看到的初步參與結果感到滿意,我們對該產品所代表的新參與模式感到興奮。

  • Now looking forward to 2023, we expect to continue our rapid pace of product development. Our product focus will include enhancing the college and recent crowd experience, continuing to build on the compliments and speed dating platforms that we've launched, leaning into social features, such as our recently-launched Recommend to a Friend feature and building out new monetization platforms at both the low end and high end.

    現在展望 2023 年,我們希望繼續快速的產品開發步伐。我們的產品重點將包括增強大學和最近的人群體驗,繼續建立我們推出的讚美和快速約會平台,傾向於社交功能,例如我們最近推出的“推薦給朋友”功能,並建立新的貨幣化低端和高端的平台。

  • Now turning to Badoo and other products, including Fruitz. Badoo and other revenue totaled $52 million in Q3, down 10% year-on-year on a reported basis. That includes 21 points of combined negative impact from FX and the conflict in Ukraine. We have made progress towards stabilizing Badoo's performance. The sequential increase in paying users was driven by product improvement, including an enhanced talk to someone experience and a new 1-day consumable aimed at driving payer conversion for the more economically sensitive Badoo user. Over the next several quarters, we will build on these successes with additional product releases and a continued disciplined marketing approach.

    現在轉向 Badoo 和其他產品,包括 Fruitz。 Badoo 和其他業務在第三季度的收入總計 5200 萬美元,同比下降 10%。這包括 21 點來自外彙和烏克蘭衝突的綜合負面影響。我們在穩定 Badoo 的性能方面取得了進展。付費用戶的環比增長是由產品改進推動的,包括增強與某人交談的體驗和新的 1 天消耗品,旨在推動對經濟更敏感的 Badoo 用戶的付費者轉換。在接下來的幾個季度中,我們將在這些成功的基礎上再接再厲,推出更多產品並採用持續規範的營銷方法。

  • Let me turn next to Fruitz. Adoption continues to grow quickly in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and parts of Canada, and we are actively working on its broader international expansion strategy for 2023. Since acquiring the company in January, we have integrated a significant amount of our safety capability and throughout Q3, we've been bringing our monetization expertise to that team. At the same time, we are leveraging Fruitz as a learning platform to better serve Gen Z.

    讓我轉到 Fruitz 旁邊。採用率在法國、比利時、荷蘭和加拿大部分地區繼續快速增長,我們正在積極制定 2023 年更廣泛的國際擴張戰略。自 1 月份收購該公司以來,我們已經整合了大量的安全能力,並在整個第三季度,我們一直在為該團隊帶來我們的貨幣化專業知識。與此同時,我們正在利用 Fruitz 作為學習平台,更好地為 Z 世代服務。

  • Finally, I would like to spotlight a couple of safety initiatives that serve as powerful reflections of our mission and our commitment to creating [kind] connections. First, California signed a cyber flashing bill in September that makes the sending of unwanted lewd images illegal, building upon similar legislation that we also championed in Texas, Virginia and the U.K. More recently, we open sourced our private detector machine learning model to bring improved user trust and safety to the social media industry at large.

    最後,我想強調幾項安全舉措,它們有力地反映了我們的使命和我們對建立 [友好] 聯繫的承諾。首先,加利福尼亞州在 9 月簽署了一項網絡閃爍法案,該法案規定發送不受歡迎的淫穢圖像是非法的,該法案建立在我們在德克薩斯州、弗吉尼亞州和英國也倡導的類似立法的基礎上。最近,我們開源了我們的私人檢測器機器學習模型,以帶來改進用戶對整個社交媒體行業的信任和安全。

  • I am so proud of how our teams work is shaping our global industry for the better, and I'm looking forward to more.

    我為我們團隊的工作方式使我們的全球行業變得更好而感到自豪,我期待著更多。

  • I will now turn it over to Anu for discussion of our financials and outlook. Thank you so much.

    我現在將把它交給 Anu 來討論我們的財務和前景。太感謝了。

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • Thank you, Whitney, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll begin with a discussion of our third quarter trends and results before turning to our outlook for Q4 and the full year. Unless stated otherwise, the comparisons I will make refer to the third quarter of 2022 versus the third quarter of 2021. Total Bumble Inc. revenue in Q3 was $233 million, up 17%, driven by growth in Bumble App. FX was a $14 million headwind to top line, $2 million worse than we had expected at the time of our guidance. In aggregate, FX headwinds and the Ukraine conflict impacted our Q3 growth rate negatively by 10 percentage points.

    謝謝惠特尼,大家下午好。在轉向我們對第四季度和全年的展望之前,我將首先討論我們第三季度的趨勢和結果。除非另有說明,否則我將進行 2022 年第三季度與 2021 年第三季度的比較。在 Bumble App 的增長推動下,Bumble Inc. 第三季度的總收入為 2.33 億美元,增長 17%。 FX 對收入造成 1400 萬美元的不利影響,比我們在發布指導時的預期低 200 萬美元。總體而言,外匯逆風和烏克蘭衝突對我們第三季度的增長率產生了 10 個百分點的負面影響。

  • At a group level, revenue growth was driven primarily by growth in paying users which increased 15% to $3.3 million, while ARPPU increased by 1%.

    在集團層面,收入增長主要由付費用戶增長推動,付費用戶增長 15% 至 330 萬美元,而 ARPPU 增長 1%。

  • Revenue from Bumble App grew 28% to $181 million. FX was a $7 million year-over-year headwind, which negatively impacted growth by 5 percentage points. FX headwind was $1 million more than we had previously expected. Bumble App revenue growth was driven by a strong 36% increase in paying users to $2.1 million.

    Bumble App 的收入增長了 28%,達到 1.81 億美元。外匯是 700 萬美元的逆風,對增長產生了 5 個百分點的負面影響。外匯逆風比我們之前預期的多 100 萬美元。 Bumble App 的收入增長得益於付費用戶強勁增長 36% 至 210 萬美元。

  • On a sequential basis, we added 164,000 paying users marking the fourth consecutive quarter we've increased net adds. The strong growth in paying users was driven by a number of factors, including active user growth from high reengagement rates, successful international expansion and product enhancements that drove payer conversions. Bumble App's ARPPU was $28.84, down 6% year-over-year and 1% sequentially, primarily due to country mix and FX impacts, partially offset by pricing optimization initiatives.

    在連續的基礎上,我們增加了 164,000 名付費用戶,這是我們連續第四個季度增加淨增加。付費用戶的強勁增長受到多種因素的推動,包括高再參與率帶來的活躍用戶增長、成功的國際擴張以及推動付費用戶轉化的產品改進。 Bumble App 的 ARPPU 為 28.84 美元,同比下降 6%,環比下降 1%,這主要是由於國家組合和外匯影響,部分被定價優化舉措所抵消。

  • Now moving on to Badoo App and other. Badoo app and other revenue declined 10% in Q3 to $52 million. FX and the Ukraine conflict represented a $12 million headwind year-over-year which negatively impacted growth rates by 21 percentage points. FX headwind was $1 million worse than we had expected.

    現在轉向 Badoo App 和其他。 Badoo 應用和其他收入在第三季度下降 10% 至 5200 萬美元。外彙和烏克蘭衝突帶來了 1200 萬美元的同比逆風,對增長率產生了 21 個百分點的負面影響。外匯逆風比我們預期的要差 100 萬美元。

  • Absent these headwinds, Badoo and other revenue grew double digits year-over-year. Badoo App and other paying users declined 10% year-over-year to $1.2 million, but grew sequentially by $106,000. Badoo App and other ARPPU declined 7% year-over-year to $12.75 due to FX and country mix, partially offset by pricing optimization work. As a reminder, we currently include Fruitz revenue within Badoo App and other revenue, but exclude Fruitz paying users from Badoo App and other paying users.

    如果沒有這些不利因素,Badoo 和其他收入同比增長兩位數。 Badoo App 和其他付費用戶收入同比下降 10% 至 120 萬美元,但環比增長 106,000 美元。 Badoo App 和其他 ARPPU 同比下降 7% 至 12.75 美元,原因是外彙和國家組合,部分被定價優化工作所抵消。提醒一下,我們目前將 Fruitz 收入包括在 Badoo App 和其他收入中,但不包括 Badoo App 和其他付費用戶的 Fruitz 付費用戶。

  • Turning now to expenses. We continue to remain very focused on managing our business profitably, especially in light of the current geopolitical and macroeconomic environment. Total GAAP operating costs and expenses were $204 million for the quarter, down 1% year-over-year.

    現在轉向費用。我們繼續非常專注於以盈利方式管理我們的業務,尤其是考慮到當前的地緣政治和宏觀經濟環境。本季度 GAAP 總運營成本和支出為 2.04 億美元,同比下降 1%。

  • On a non-GAAP basis, excluding stock-based comp and other noncash or onetime items, I'd note the following: our total non-GAAP operating expenses were $171 million, up 18%. Cost of revenue was $64 million and grew 17% year-over-year. The increase was primarily driven by higher app store fees as revenues have grown. As a percentage of revenue, cost of revenue was 27%, flat versus the year ago period.

    在非 GAAP 基礎上,不包括基於股票的薪酬和其他非現金或一次性項目,我會注意到以下幾點:我們的非 GAAP 總運營費用為 1.71 億美元,增長 18%。收入成本為 6400 萬美元,同比增長 17%。增長的主要原因是隨著收入的增長,應用商店費用增加。作為收入的百分比,收入成本為 27%,與去年同期持平。

  • Sales and marketing expenses grew 16% year-over-year to $61 million. This represents 26% of revenue, flat versus the year ago period. G&A expenses were $30 million or 13% of revenue compared to $24 million or 12% of revenue last year. Product development expenses were $16 million or 7% of revenue, flat versus the year ago period. Q3 GAAP net earnings were $26 million compared to a net loss of $10 million in the year ago period. And Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $62 million, up 13% year-over-year and represented a 27% margin. We generated $34 million of free cash flow this quarter. We have a strong cash position and ended Q3 with total cash of $365 million. We continue to maintain strong financial discipline with regards to potential uses of cash.

    銷售和營銷費用同比增長 16% 至 6100 萬美元。這佔收入的 26%,與去年同期持平。 G&A 費用為 3000 萬美元,佔收入的 13%,而去年為 2400 萬美元,佔收入的 12%。產品開發費用為 1600 萬美元,佔收入的 7%,與去年同期持平。第三季度 GAAP 淨收益為 2600 萬美元,而去年同期為淨虧損 1000 萬美元。第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6200 萬美元,同比增長 13%,利潤率為 27%。本季度我們產生了 3400 萬美元的自由現金流。我們的現金狀況良好,截至第三季度末現金總額為 3.65 億美元。我們繼續在現金的潛在用途方面保持嚴格的財務紀律。

  • Now moving on to our outlook. We expect the following for Q4. Total revenue between $232 million and $237 million, representing a growth rate of 12% to 14% year-over-year. Our outlook assumes $16 million of year-over-year FX headwinds, $6 million more than we had previously estimated. Our outlook also assumes approximately $5 million of year-over-year headwinds related to the conflict in Ukraine, primarily in Badoo.

    現在繼續我們的展望。我們預計第四季度將出現以下情況。總收入在 2.32 億美元至 2.37 億美元之間,同比增長 12% 至 14%。我們的展望假設 1600 萬美元的同比外匯逆風,比我們之前估計的多 600 萬美元。我們的展望還假設與烏克蘭衝突相關的同比逆風約為 500 萬美元,主要是在 Badoo。

  • Excluding the impact of FX and the Ukraine conflict, our total revenue growth outlook would have been 22% to 25% year-over-year. We expect Bumble App revenue to be between $184 million and $187 million, representing a growth rate of 23% to 25% year-over-year. The revenue outlook assumes a negative impact from FX of approximately $9 million, $4 million more than we had anticipated originally.

    排除外彙和烏克蘭衝突的影響,我們的總收入增長預期將同比增長 22% 至 25%。我們預計 Bumble App 收入將在 1.84 億美元至 1.87 億美元之間,同比增長率為 23% 至 25%。收入前景假設外彙的負面影響約為 900 萬美元,比我們最初預期的多 400 萬美元。

  • Excluding FX headwinds, our guidance for Bumble revenue growth would be 29% to 31% year-over-year. We estimate adjusted EBITDA will be between $57 million and $59 million, representing 25% at the midpoint of the range.

    排除外匯不利因素,我們對 Bumble 收入增長的指引為同比增長 29% 至 31%。我們估計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 5700 萬美元至 5900 萬美元之間,佔範圍中點的 25%。

  • Our Q4 expectations are based on 3 considerations. First, we expect FX to continue to be a headwind across all our apps. Second, while Bumble App is continuing to demonstrate strong user engagement, product delay and macro issues will weigh on Q4 results. And lastly, on Badoo and other, we expect continued macro pressure along with lower demand for advertising this holiday season.

    我們對第四季度的預期基於 3 個考慮因素。首先,我們預計 FX 將繼續成為我們所有應用程序的不利因素。其次,雖然 Bumble App 繼續表現出強大的用戶參與度,但產品延遲和宏觀問題將影響第四季度的業績。最後,在 Badoo 和其他網站上,我們預計這個假日季廣告需求將持續下降,同時宏觀壓力將持續存在。

  • On a full year 2022 basis, we expect total revenue growth rate of 17% to 18% year-over-year. This assumes $44 million of year-over-year FX headwinds and excluding the impact of FX and the Ukraine conflict, our guidance for total revenue growth would have been 26% year-over-year.

    以 2022 年全年為基礎,我們預計總收入同比增長率為 17% 至 18%。假設有 4400 萬美元的同比外匯逆風,並且排除外彙和烏克蘭衝突的影響,我們對總收入增長的指導將同比增長 26%。

  • We expect Bumble App revenue growth rate to be 30% to 31% year-over-year. The revenue outlook assumes a negative impact from FX of $23 million. Excluding FX headwinds, our guidance for Bumble revenue growth would be 34% to 35% year-over-year. We estimate adjusted EBITDA will be between $223 million and $225 million, representing 25% margin at the midpoint of the range.

    我們預計 Bumble App 的收入同比增長率為 30% 至 31%。收入前景假設外彙的負面影響為 2300 萬美元。排除外匯不利因素,我們對 Bumble 收入增長的指引為同比增長 34% 至 35%。我們估計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 2.23 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間,相當於該範圍中點 25% 的利潤率。

  • We are currently in the middle of our annual planning cycle. And while we typically provide full year guidance on our Q4 earnings call, given macro uncertainty, we wanted to share some preliminary expectations for full year 2023 today. While the operating environment continues to evolve, based on our current visibility on our product road map and market expansion efforts, we expect that Bumble Inc. revenue will grow between mid- to high teens next year.

    我們目前正處於年度計劃週期的中間。雖然我們通常會在第四季度財報電話會議上提供全年指引,但鑑於宏觀不確定性,我們今天想分享一些對 2023 年全年的初步預期。雖然運營環境不斷發展,但根據我們目前對產品路線圖和市場擴張努力的可見性,我們預計 Bumble Inc. 明年的收入將在中高水平之間增長。

  • This assumes 300 basis points of FX headwinds at current rates. Adjusted for that, we expect our total company revenue growth will be high teens to low 20s on a year-over-year basis next year. We are also committed to expanding adjusted EBITDA margins in 2023 by at least 100 basis points on a full year basis. This will be achieved by ensuring that we remain laser-focused on spends while continuing to invest in our growth priorities.

    這假設以當前匯率計算 300 個基點的外匯逆風。對此進行調整後,我們預計明年我們公司的總收入同比增長將達到十幾歲到二十幾歲。我們還承諾在 2023 年將調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率全年擴大至少 100 個基點。這將通過確保我們在繼續投資於我們的增長優先事項的同時繼續專注於支出來實現。

  • In closing, we remain as focused as ever on balanced execution. We will continue delivering best-in-class experiences for our users and we will do this without sacrificing on our goals of sustainable and profitable growth for our shareholders.

    最後,我們一如既往地專注於平衡執行。我們將繼續為我們的用戶提供一流的體驗,我們將在不犧牲我們為股東實現可持續和盈利增長的目標的情況下做到這一點。

  • And with that, operator, we can open it up for Q&A.

    有了它,接線員,我們就可以打開它進行問答了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Andrew Marok with Raymond James.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Andrew Marok 和 Raymond James。

  • Andrew Jordan Marok - Research Analyst

    Andrew Jordan Marok - Research Analyst

  • I wanted to talk a little bit about the preliminary outlook for '23. I guess what assumptions for macro are baked into that? A consistent outlook or any worsening involved? And is there any contribution baked into that from nondating properties?

    我想談談 23 年的初步展望。我想其中包含了哪些宏觀假設?一致的前景還是任何惡化?非約會屬性是否對其中有任何貢獻?

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • Yes, sure. I can take that. So again, like I said in my prepared remarks, I wanted to mention that we are still very much in our planning stages for next year. And so the teams are actively working on what 2023 will look like. But again, like I said, given the larger macro uncertainties, we wanted to just provide everyone a preliminary estimate based again on our best guess around 2023. So like I said, our range currently is in the high teens to low 20s adjusted for about 3 points of FX headwinds.

    是的,當然。我可以接受。因此,就像我在準備好的發言中所說的那樣,我想再次指出,我們仍處於明年的計劃階段。因此,團隊正在積極研究 2023 年的樣子。但是,就像我說的,鑑於更大的宏觀不確定性,我們只想再次根據我們對 2023 年左右的最佳猜測向大家提供初步估計。所以就像我說的那樣,我們目前的範圍是在十幾歲到二十幾歲之間調整了大約3 點外匯逆風。

  • We are assuming here that Bumble App will continue to be primarily the growth driver for our business next year. And the growth levers are -- will largely be similar to what we saw in 2022 in terms of we still expect paying users to drive growth across both our core and international markets.

    我們在這裡假設 Bumble App 明年將繼續成為我們業務的主要增長動力。增長槓桿將在很大程度上與我們在 2022 年看到的類似,因為我們仍然希望付費用戶能夠推動我們核心市場和國際市場的增長。

  • Now, we've obviously made some reasonable assumptions around what the growth vectors look like across the different geographies based on the data that we have from historical market expansion. And we've also made some high-level assumptions about product contribution. But again, these road maps are still being built, and so we'll have more detail to share when we come back in Q4.

    現在,我們顯然已經根據我們從歷史市場擴張中獲得的數據,圍繞不同地區的增長向量是什麼樣子做出了一些合理的假設。我們還對產品貢獻做出了一些高層次的假設。但同樣,這些路線圖仍在構建中,因此我們將在第四季度回來時分享更多細節。

  • From a macro perspective, again, we've assumed that the current state continues into 2023. We've not assumed any material degradation in terms of what we are seeing. But obviously, this is something that we will be looking at very closely between now and Q1 when we come back to provide guidance. Again, our goal was to provide a high-level numbers, but we will provide specific drivers of revenue when we come back.

    從宏觀角度來看,我們再次假設當前狀態會持續到 2023 年。我們沒有假設我們所看到的任何材料退化。但顯然,從現在到第一季度我們回來提供指導時,我們將非常密切地關注這一點。同樣,我們的目標是提供一個高水平的數字,但我們會在回來時提供具體的收入驅動因素。

  • Andrew Jordan Marok - Research Analyst

    Andrew Jordan Marok - Research Analyst

  • Great. And one more, if I could. In this type of environment, I know you talked a little bit about your marketing philosophy in your prepared remarks. But in this type of environment, can you pull back on marketing spend? Or will you need to spend through it to defend your position? I guess is there any differences in your outlook on marketing like channel shifts toward campus, influencer or lower-cost channels, anything like that?

    偉大的。還有一個,如果可以的話。在這種環境下,我知道你在準備好的發言中談到了一些你的營銷理念。但在這種環境下,你能減少營銷支出嗎?還是您需要花錢來捍衛自己的地位?我猜你對營銷的看法有什麼不同,比如渠道轉向校園、影響者或低成本渠道,諸如此類?

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • Sure. I'll take that. This is Tariq. So we've always had a very disciplined approach on marketing, and it's always been very ROI centric, even our brand marketing spend, not just our performance in paid marketing spend. A lot of the success we see on the marketing side is built off of the brand base and some of the stats that Whitney said about the love for our brand and the favorability that we have for our brands.

    當然。我會接受的。這是塔里克。因此,我們在營銷方面一直採用非常嚴格的方法,並且始終以投資回報率為中心,甚至是我們的品牌營銷支出,而不僅僅是我們在付費營銷支出方面的表現。我們在營銷方面看到的很多成功都是建立在品牌基礎和惠特尼所說的關於對我們品牌的熱愛和我們對品牌的好感度的一些統計數據之上的。

  • So at the moment as conditions got tougher in Q3 and in the first several weeks of Q4, we haven't seen a need to change our marketing approach per se from a channel standpoint or anything like that. What we are doing is adjusting the messaging and the merchandising to make sure that we're able to really speak to our users in the context of the current environment.

    因此,目前隨著第三季度和第四季度前幾週的情況變得更加嚴峻,我們認為沒有必要從渠道的角度或類似的角度改變我們的營銷方法本身。我們正在做的是調整消息傳遞和商品銷售,以確保我們能夠在當前環境的背景下真正與我們的用戶交流。

  • A lot of our messaging is working one of our big platforms that you'll recall is, it started on Bumble, which is really about celebrating the success that our users have on the platform. we are dialing up some of the comparative value messaging that Whitney mentioned about Bumble, we believe, being one of the best ways to have a first date, to find the first date compared to cost of drinks at bars including cost of other things that you might do. So you'll see more messaging around that as well. And yes, and I don't think we're going to be seeing any substantial change in spend.

    我們的許多消息傳遞都在我們的一個大平台上運行,您會記得它是從 Bumble 開始的,這實際上是為了慶祝我們的用戶在該平台上取得的成功。我們正在調出 Whitney 提到的關於 Bumble 的一些比較價值信息,我們相信,這是第一次約會的最佳方式之一,以找到第一次約會與酒吧飲料成本(包括您購買的其他東西的成本)的比較可能做。所以你也會看到更多關於它的信息。是的,我認為我們不會看到支出有任何實質性變化。

  • Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

    Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. And I just wanted to clarify, I think I missed answering your question about nondating businesses. Our 2023 revenue assumptions don't include any major contributions from our non-dating business. Our goal is to test monetization strategies for our non-dating business next year. But right now, we are not baking in any big revenue contributions from that.

    是的。我只是想澄清一下,我想我沒有回答你關於非約會業務的問題。我們的 2023 年收入假設不包括我們的非約會業務的任何重大貢獻。我們的目標是明年測試非約會業務的貨幣化策略。但現在,我們並沒有從中獲得任何可觀的收入貢獻。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Mark Kelley with Stifel.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Mark Kelley。

  • Mark Patrick Kelley - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Mark Patrick Kelley - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Great. I was wondering if there's a way for you to maybe quantify a bit more that 8- to 10-week delay that you highlighted at the outset of the prepared remarks. Maybe just how it impacted Q3 and then how you think that impacts Q4 maybe into next year?

    偉大的。我想知道您是否有辦法量化您在準備好的發言開始時強調的 8 到 10 週的延遲。也許它是如何影響第三季度的,然後你認為這可能會如何影響明年的第四季度?

  • And then would love your thoughts on just expectations for app store fees next year and beyond, given the margin outlook you gave, you're not baking any improvement into your estimates at this point. But any just high-level thoughts there would be great.

    然後會喜歡你對明年及以後應用商店費用的預期,鑑於你給出的利潤率前景,你目前沒有對你的估計進行任何改進。但是任何高層次的想法都會很棒。

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • Yes. Sure. Why don't I start with the margin question, and then I'll hand it over. You're right, on the app store fees, we haven't assumed any relief coming in, in 2023. So we've resumed largely current state of affairs. Obviously, we'll have to see what next year will bring in terms of changes in this front. But right now, our EBITDA 100 basis points expansion doesn't assume any additional benefit coming out of that.

    是的。當然。為什麼我不從保證金問題開始,然後我會把它交出來。你是對的,關於應用商店的費用,我們沒有假設 2023 年會有任何減免。所以我們基本上恢復了當前的狀態。顯然,我們必須看看明年這方面的變化會帶來什麼。但現在,我們的 EBITDA 100 個基點擴展並沒有假設任何額外的好處。

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • And in terms of the product delays, as we mentioned it, it was some of our products, we had a very robust product launch flow, if you will, in Q3. There was a handful of our products that did get delayed that had monetization implications. Most notable is compliments and the paid version of compliments, that is now live. So it really is that 8- to 10-week delay on a number of those features. We're not providing specific breakdown between them, but macro and the product delays are give or take, roughly even in the Q4 calculus.

    正如我們提到的,就產品延遲而言,這是我們的一些產品,如果你願意的話,我們在第三季度有一個非常強大的產品發布流程。我們的一些產品確實被延遲了,這對貨幣化產生了影響。最值得注意的是讚美和讚美的付費版本,現在已經上線。因此,其中許多功能確實延遲了 8 到 10 週。我們沒有提供它們之間的具體細分,但宏觀和產品延遲是給定的,甚至在第四季度的計算中也是如此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Cory Carpenter with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Cory Carpenter。

  • Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst

    Cory Alan Carpenter - Analyst

  • Maybe one more on the product delays. Just Tariq, hoping you could expand a bit on what exactly the issues were that led to the delay. And then also what you did see in testing with compliments in the college bundles and what your expectations are on the monetization side? And then for you, just hoping you to expand on the 4Q Bumble App guide. Any color you could provide on what your expectations are in terms of payer growth versus ARPU, would be helpful.

    也許還有一個關於產品延遲的問題。只是塔里克,希望你能詳細說明導致延遲的問題到底是什麼。然後還有你在大學捆綁包的讚美測試中看到了什麼,以及你對貨幣化方面的期望是什麼?然後對你來說,只是希望你能擴展 4Q Bumble App 指南。您可以提供任何關於您對付費用戶增長與 ARPU 的預期的顏色,都會有所幫助。

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • Great. So I'm going to try and answer the question, Cory, without going into too much of the details of the product. But the -- so essentially, there's a number of products that we were launching this quarter like compliments that have to be integrated into the core profile experience. And that profile experience. It's like the homepage on the web. It is required to solve -- to serve everybody who uses our apps, right? It's -- we do personalization, but it's largely a single experience and a single home page, if you will, for the app a number of features built on top of that.

    偉大的。因此,Cory,我將嘗試回答這個問題,但不會過多介紹產品的細節。但是 - 從本質上講,我們本季度推出了許多產品,例如必須整合到核心個人資料體驗中的讚美。還有那個個人資料體驗。這就像網絡上的主頁。它需要解決 - 為使用我們應用程序的每個人服務,對嗎?它是 - 我們進行個性化,但它主要是單一的體驗和單一的主頁,如果你願意的話,應用程序的許多功能都建立在它之上。

  • As we rolled into testing, we started to see that there were some impacts from a design and user experience standpoint, primarily on the power user segment that interacts most frequently with that app, and it was causing some kind of unexpected behavior in that segment, such an important segment for us in such a sensitive area. We decided to hit pause, make sure we really understood it and tweak some of the design elements and some of the mechanics underneath the hood.

    當我們開始測試時,我們開始看到從設計和用戶體驗的角度來看存在一些影響,主要是對與該應用程序交互最頻繁的高級用戶部分,並且它在該部分引起了某種意外行為,在如此敏感的領域對我們來說如此重要的部分。我們決定暫停一下,確保我們真正理解它並調整一些設計元素和引擎蓋下的一些機制。

  • So for compliments as an example, exactly how -- where it sits on the page exactly how you interact with it. There are elements like that, that were good broadly speaking, but not good for specific segments like that power user segment that we were talking about. And we wanted to get it right. We have both a high bar, I don't want to run the risk of alienating any of our users.

    因此,以讚美為例,它究竟是如何——它位於頁面上的什麼位置,以及你如何與之互動。有這樣的元素,從廣義上講是好的,但對特定的細分市場並不好,比如我們正在談論的高級用戶細分市場。我們想把它做好。我們都有很高的標準,我不想冒疏遠我們任何用戶的風險。

  • That said, it has been live now in Germany and Australia. And those were our test markets, we rolled it in late October into Canada and then more recently in November into New England, New York, New Jersey, a couple of other places in the U.S. We're seeing strong adoption. People are sending compliments. It's a different experience, as we've said. It's not something that we've done before. So there's a little bit of a learning curve associated with it, but we do have people sending. We have people opening. We see that it is leading to better matches.

    也就是說,它現在已經在德國和澳大利亞上線了。這些是我們的測試市場,我們在 10 月下旬將其推廣到加拿大,然後在最近的 11 月推廣到新英格蘭、紐約、新澤西和美國其他幾個地方。我們看到了廣泛的採用。人們在發送讚美。正如我們所說,這是一種不同的體驗。這不是我們以前做過的事情。所以有一點與之相關的學習曲線,但我們確實有人發送。我們有人開門。我們看到它正在導致更好的匹配。

  • And really, critically, we are seeing that people are willing to pay for the experience, the monetized version we have rolled out is really leaning into at moment, a consumables experience where you pay to send beyond your free quota that you get for a day. And so that is all working well, we see excitement because it is a new interaction model in the app, right? And so we're very pleased with that. We're going to continue rolling it out as we said.

    真的,至關重要的是,我們看到人們願意為體驗付費,我們推出的貨幣化版本目前確實傾向於,一種消耗品體驗,您支付超過一天獲得的免費配額.所以這一切都運作良好,我們看到了興奮,因為它是應用程序中的新交互模型,對吧?所以我們對此非常滿意。正如我們所說,我們將繼續推出它。

  • College bundles was a big topic in August. And we have mentioned that from a go-to-market standpoint, we were delaying -- it did go live on our revised schedule in August and September, as students came back on the campus. And just as a reminder of the strategy on college, it really is all about finding these segment-specific opportunities that we can target and dive into largely areas that we've kind of missed from our overall broad-based monetization strategy, so college students being in undermonetized segment that we have.

    大學捆綁包是八月份的一個大話題。我們已經提到,從上市的角度來看,我們正在推遲——它確實在 8 月和 9 月按照我們修改後的時間表上線,因為學生們回到了校園。正如大學戰略的提醒一樣,這實際上就是找到這些特定於細分市場的機會,我們可以瞄準這些機會並深入到我們在整體廣泛的貨幣化戰略中錯過的大部分領域,所以大學生處於我們所擁有的貨幣化不足的部分。

  • We rolled out a number of different college monetization offerings. One of them was labeled the student bundle. There are some others. These are all available on a targeted basis. We saw in the segments we targeted a meaningful uplift in ARPU. We are now working on how do we expand the distribution of those and the evolution of those.

    我們推出了許多不同的大學貨幣化產品。其中一個被標記為學生包。還有其他一些。這些都是有針對性的。我們在細分市場中看到,我們的目標是顯著提高 ARPU。我們現在正在研究如何擴大它們的分佈和它們的演變。

  • We had talked previously about adding virtual goods, for example, later in this year and early next year, that is still our plan, and we think we'll drive further uplift. We're also rolling out this college verification program, which will enable us to expand verified distribution. So we don't accidentally offer these packages to somebody who is not -- who shouldn't be getting it.

    我們之前曾討論過添加虛擬商品,例如,在今年晚些時候和明年初,這仍然是我們的計劃,我們認為我們會進一步提升。我們還推出了這個大學驗證計劃,這將使我們能夠擴大經過驗證的分發。因此,我們不會意外地將這些包裹提供給那些不應該得到它的人。

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • Yes. And Cory, just to answer your question about specifics on Q4 outlook. So just to contextualize this, we -- compared to our previous guidance, we've taken down our overall guidance by about $20 million, $6 million of that relates to incremental FX headwinds. So you're really talking about a $14 million difference, about $9 million of that is on Bumble and $5 million of that is on Badoo. The $9 million for Bumble is largely because of the 2 factors we've already talked about in terms of the product delay and macro.

    是的。 Cory,只是為了回答你關於第四季度展望細節的問題。因此,為了將其背景化,我們 - 與我們之前的指導相比,我們已經將我們的總體指導降低了約 2000 萬美元,其中 600 萬美元與增量外匯逆風有關。所以你真正談論的是 1400 萬美元的差異,其中大約 900 萬美元在 Bumble 上,而其中 500 萬美元在 Badoo 上。 Bumble 的 900 萬美元主要是因為我們已經在產品延遲和宏觀方面討論過的 2 個因素。

  • In terms of how I expect Bumble App KPIs to come out in Q4, our goal for the year in terms of getting to 500,000 net adds still has not changed. So we are still hoping to get to that number by the end of the year.

    就我對第四季度 Bumble App KPI 的預期而言,我們今年實現 500,000 淨增加的目標仍然沒有改變。所以我們仍然希望在年底前達到這個數字。

  • Obviously, given FX and given the fact that compliments, which would have been ARPPU driver are delayed and are not going to contribute as much in Q4. We will see year-over-year declines in ARPPU in Q4 for Bumble App. So that's the composition of how I expect Bumble Apps to come out in Q4. And for Badoo, the $5 million is largely -- right now, we are taking again a cautious approach on what macro looks like.

    顯然,考慮到 FX 和讚美,這本來是 ARPPU 驅動程序被延遲,並且不會在第四季度貢獻那麼多。我們將看到 Bumble App 第 4 季度的 ARPPU 同比下降。這就是我期望 Bumble Apps 在第四季度問世的構成。而對於 Badoo 來說,500 萬美元主要是——現在,我們再次對宏觀面貌採取謹慎的態度。

  • Obviously, as we've said before, the Badoo consumer is more sensitive to some of the macro conditions. So we are just taking a cautious approach to where we think Q4 will end. That $5 million also includes weakness that we are seeing in advertising, again, similar to a lot of other companies. So we are expecting to be about $1 million lower than last year in terms of that as well. So those are the high-level components of how the Q4 outlook breaks out.

    顯然,正如我們之前所說,Badoo 消費者對某些宏觀條件更為敏感。因此,我們只是對我們認為第四季度結束的地方採取謹慎的態度。這 500 萬美元還包括我們在廣告中看到的弱點,這與許多其他公司類似。因此,就此而言,我們預計也將比去年減少約 100 萬美元。因此,這些是第四季度前景如何爆發的高級組成部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • Okay. Could you please provide more detail on what has to happen? I understand it's a very high level and you'll do your planning. But what, as of now, assuming that macro is steady, what has to happen to get to low, I guess, high teens next year and low 20% growth rate.

    好的。您能否提供更多有關必鬚髮生的事情的詳細信息?我知道這是一個非常高的層次,你會做你的計劃。但是,截至目前,假設宏觀經濟穩定,我猜想,明年的增長率將達到 10% 左右,增長率將降至 20%。

  • So what is the assumption baked in that range as of now? And I guess the second question is, could you talk about sensitivity of low disposable income consumers? My understanding was that at a high level, you've got -- your skew towards the demographic that's more resilient, but could you touch on that and where you're seeing that sensitivity?

    那麼到目前為止,該範圍內的假設是什麼?我想第二個問題是,你能談談低可支配收入消費者的敏感性嗎?我的理解是,在高層次上,你已經 - 你對更有彈性的人口統計的傾斜,但你能談談這一點以及你在哪裡看到這種敏感性嗎?

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • Shweta, I'll start with that second one maybe and then turn it over to a new omni outlook question. So it is true that historically, Bumble has had a more resilient user base. And we think we are still seeing that resilience in the majority of our user base as we've grown both globally and just in our core markets, we have, for example, been rapidly adding Gen Z users. Gen Z users make up a large amount of the growth that you're seeing in downloads. And Bumble is really becoming as the #2 most downloaded dating app in the world. And particularly in these core markets that we're talking about, a broad-based product. And so we are seeing a little bit of that price sensitivity creep in.

    Shweta,我可能會從第二個問題開始,然後將其轉為一個新的全方位前景問題。因此,從歷史上看,Bumble 確實擁有更具彈性的用戶群。而且我們認為,隨著我們在全球和核心市場的增長,我們仍然在大多數用戶群中看到這種彈性,例如,我們一直在迅速增加 Gen Z 用戶。 Z 世代用戶佔下載量增長的很大一部分。 Bumble 正真正成為世界上下載量排名第二的約會應用程序。特別是在我們正在談論的這些核心市場中,基礎廣泛的產品。因此,我們看到了一點點價格敏感性的蔓延。

  • It is primarily the Gen Z, the younger demographics. At the moment, there's a couple of other pockets of price-sensitive users. I think I'll hit on a point that we said earlier that what we're seeing is really this thinking twice about a purchase type of dynamic. The initial subscription rates, including in these price-sensitive segments, we're not seeing any decline in that.

    它主要是 Z 世代,即年輕的人口統計數據。目前,還有其他一些對價格敏感的用戶。我想我會說到我們之前說過的一點,我們所看到的實際上是對動態購買類型的三思而後行。初始訂閱率,包括在這些對價格敏感的細分市場中,我們沒有看到任何下降。

  • So this is really -- to put it bluntly, at what point do you run out of money and start thinking about wanting to do -- should you keep going or not. And that is impacting these renewal rates. It's a very isolated phenomenon in certain pockets of the user base, not anything that is broad-based.

    所以這真的是 - 坦率地說,你在什麼時候用光了錢並開始考慮想要做 - 你應該繼續還是不繼續。這正在影響這些續訂率。在某些用戶群中,這是一種非常孤立的現象,而不是任何具有廣泛基礎的現象。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • In terms of outlook, Shweta, like you said, I think, again, we are very much in preliminary stages of providing outlook. But at the high level, if you think about it, like Tariq was saying, we are seeing in some pockets of our business, macro start to rear its head. We assume that, that continues. I mean if you -- even if you compare between September to October and November, while we saw a lot of that impact in September, we haven't seen the trends worsen in October and November, yes.

    就前景而言,Shweta,就像你說的,我認為,我們再次處於提供前景的初步階段。但在高層,如果你想一想,就像塔里克所說的那樣,我們看到在我們業務的某些領域,宏觀開始抬頭。我們認為,這種情況會繼續。我的意思是,如果你 - 即使你比較 9 月到 10 月和 11 月,雖然我們在 9 月看到了很多影響,但我們沒有看到 10 月和 11 月的趨勢惡化,是的。

  • So we've sort of assumed a steady state in terms of that for next year. Now obviously, if things got worse from a macro perspective, you would see us flight to the lower end of that guidance. And on the higher end of the guidance, again, we made our best guess estimate in terms of which international markets we want to get into where some of the products we think we really want to focus on next year will land and the timing of all of those are still being worked out.

    因此,我們在某種程度上假設了明年的穩定狀態。很明顯,如果從宏觀角度來看情況變得更糟,你會看到我們飛向該指導的低端。在指南的高端,我們再次做出了最佳猜測,即我們希望進入哪些國際市場,我們認為我們明年真正想要關注的一些產品將會登陸哪些市場,以及所有這些市場的時間安排其中一些仍在製定中。

  • But again, depending on how many of those and what the probability of each of those products ends up being, that is what would push us to the high end of our guidance. And obviously, we are also -- next year, as we think about it, we are excited about products like Fruitz, which obviously, this year has been very much a focus on integration. But next year, we are excited about Fruitz starting to monetize.

    但同樣,這取決於這些產品的數量以及每種產品最終成為的可能性,這將推動我們達到指導的高端。顯然,我們也是 - 明年,正如我們所考慮的那樣,我們對像 Fruitz 這樣的產品感到興奮,顯然,今年一直非常關注集成。但明年,我們對 Fruitz 開始盈利感到興奮。

  • So there are assumptions baked into what that looks like. As well as we are excited about stabilizing Badoo. Obviously, we saw that in Q3, but we also know that macro is potentially going to come in the way of that. So again, lots of plans being made in terms of all the products that we have. So we are right now very confident about this range. Again, we'll put a finer point on this when we come back in a few months.

    所以有一些假設融入了它的樣子。我們對穩定 Badoo 感到很興奮。顯然,我們在第三季度看到了這一點,但我們也知道宏觀可能會阻礙這一點。因此,我們再次針對我們擁有的所有產品製定了許多計劃。所以我們現在對這個範圍非常有信心。再一次,當我們幾個月後回來時,我們會對此提出一個更好的觀點。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • Okay. And if I may...

    好的。如果我可以...

  • Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

    Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Thank you. Go ahead. .

    謝謝你。前進。 .

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • Actually lost you there for a second.

    實際上在那裡失去了你一秒鐘。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • Yes, sorry about that. Anu, just a follow-up. You said October and November to date was stable for your guidance, does that assume any deterioration from now to the end of the year going forward? Or Q4 guidance assumes what you see now to stay the same?

    是的,對此感到抱歉。 Anu,只是一個跟進。你說 10 月和 11 月到目前為止你的指導是穩定的,這是否假設從現在到今年年底會出現任何惡化?或者 Q4 指南假設您現在看到的保持不變?

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • Yes. So Q4 guidance assumes what we are seeing now, which is, again, remember, lower than what we had seen back in July and August. So we've assumed that, that stays, but we'll obviously keep a pretty close eye on it. But right now, we feel pretty good based on the numbers that we are seeing for October and November in terms of where we are with respect to guidance. .

    是的。因此,第四季度的指導假設我們現在看到的情況,再次記住,低於我們在 7 月和 8 月看到的情況。所以我們假設它會保留下來,但我們顯然會密切關注它。但現在,根據我們在 10 月和 11 月看到的數字,就我們在指導方面所處的位置而言,我們感覺非常好。 .

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alexandra Steiger with Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Alexandra Steiger。

  • Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst

    Alexandra Christine Kasper Steiger - Research Analyst

  • So Whitney, maybe one for you. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you're addressing some of these macro headwinds that you're seeing by changing some of the product marketing. Can you just elaborate on these product changes a little more? And how fast do you think these changes could offset some of the impact you're seeing? And then second, maybe just on like the Badoo segment, what is the new management team most focused on from like a product perspective, -- and what gives you confidence that we can see revenue reacceleration into '23 from that segment?

    所以惠特尼,也許一個給你。在你準備好的發言中,你提到你正在通過改變一些產品營銷來解決你所看到的一些宏觀逆風。您能否再詳細說明一下這些產品變化?您認為這些變化能以多快的速度抵消您所看到的一些影響?其次,也許就像 Badoo 細分市場一樣,從產品的角度來看,新的管理團隊最關注的是什麼——是什麼讓您有信心我們可以看到該細分市場的收入重新加速進入 23 年?

  • Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

    Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Yes. Great. Thank you so much for your question. I think I would love to start with both pieces of my remarks around changing product but also marketing tactics around this. So if you think about the relative cost of our product comparatively to alternative dating options. For example, what I was saying is it's very strong. So for example, our weekly Boost subscription cost less than a beer at a New York City bar and the expense of going on multiple days in a week really adds up quickly. So we're leaning into this both from a product and marketing perspective.

    是的。偉大的。非常感謝你的問題。我想我很樂意從我關於改變產品的評論和圍繞此的營銷策略開始。因此,如果您考慮我們產品相對於其他約會選項的相對成本。例如,我說的是它非常強大。因此,例如,我們每週訂閱 Boost 的費用低於紐約市酒吧的啤酒費用,而且一周內連續幾天的費用加起來確實很快。因此,我們從產品和營銷的角度都傾向於這一點。

  • So from a product-marketing hybrid, we are going to be really showing our customers the relative value of using a subscription on our product versus going out and dating in the real world. This resonates very well. We are also going to be really adjusting the way that we offer these experiences to our customers to be more in line with their needs as they evolve.

    因此,通過產品營銷混合體,我們將真正向我們的客戶展示在我們的產品上使用訂閱與在現實世界中約會約會的相對價值。這引起了很好的共鳴。我們還將真正調整我們為客戶提供這些體驗的方式,以更符合他們不斷發展的需求。

  • So maybe instead of a longer-term subscription, maybe shorter opportunities, shorter consumables. So really just being nuanced to the demand of these segments. Now I want to reinforce this is not a blanket approach. There is still a segment that really wants high-end offering. There's a segment that wants more curated experiences and more premium offerings. And so we can do this on a very targeted basis with these new capabilities that we've built. You saw these capabilities land with college bundle.

    所以也許不是長期訂閱,而是更短的機會,更短的消耗品。所以真的只是對這些細分市場的需求進行了細微差別。現在我想強調這不是一刀切的方法。仍然有一個細分市場真正想要高端產品。有一部分人想要更多精心策劃的體驗和更多優質產品。因此,我們可以利用我們構建的這些新功能,在非常有針對性的基礎上做到這一點。您看到這些功能與 college bundle 一起出現。

  • I think this is an important point. College bundle is not just about the college audience. It's about how we can actually bundle our monetization offerings and our product offerings to enhance the experience for our core demographics.

    我認為這是很重要的一點。 College bundle 不僅僅針對大學觀眾。這是關於我們如何實際捆綁我們的貨幣化產品和我們的產品以增強我們核心人群的體驗。

  • So if you see a demographic that might have less disposable income, how can we give them consumables and subscription offerings that meets their needs versus someone on the other end of the barbell, that might be looking for a more premium experience. So this is really something we would say is a hybrid product marketing effort that we would not extrapolate from one another and really leaning into that relative value.

    因此,如果您看到某個人群的可支配收入可能較少,我們如何才能為他們提供滿足他們需求的消費品和訂閱產品,而不是槓鈴另一端的人,他們可能正在尋找更優質的體驗。所以這真的是我們會說的一種混合產品營銷努力,我們不會相互推斷並真正傾向於相對價值。

  • And I think it's just very important to end on this point with our deep conviction for the confidence and the demand for love and for dating. Our top line numbers have shown and our registration numbers have shown there is not disintegration in demand for this product. And so I just wanted to reinforce that. And I believe the second question was about Badoo.

    我認為以我們對愛情和約會的信心和需求的堅定信念結束這一點非常重要。我們的頂線號碼已經顯示,我們的註冊號碼已經顯示對該產品的需求沒有下降。所以我只是想強調這一點。我相信第二個問題是關於 Badoo 的。

  • So we're really excited about the new focus around the leadership team. Essentially, we've assigned a single threaded owner to Badoo, which has been remarkable for the efficiencies and so really understanding the customer and delivering for their needs, delivering for who that customer really is -- and so while we're very encouraged by Badoo, it's improving performance in Q3 as we've laid out, we know that we still have work to do in terms of that reacceleration, but we also anticipate that Badoo's more economically sensitive user base will remain affected by these uncertain macroeconomic challenges.

    因此,我們對領導團隊的新關注點感到非常興奮。從本質上講,我們已經為 Badoo 分配了一個單一的線程所有者,它在效率方面非常出色,因此真正了解客戶並滿足他們的需求,為真正的客戶提供服務——所以我們非常受鼓舞Badoo,正如我們所規劃的那樣,它正在改善第三季度的業績,我們知道在重新加速方面我們仍有工作要做,但我們也預計 Badoo 對經濟更敏感的用戶群將繼續受到這些不確定的宏觀經濟挑戰的影響。

  • So for the year ahead, we're really just focused on driving monetization, adding new product features that serve that audience, and then this includes a new Discover feature that will be providing daily compatible suggestions that we really plan to introduce before the end of this year.

    因此,對於未來一年,我們真的只是專注於推動貨幣化,添加為該受眾服務的新產品功能,然後這包括一項新的發現功能,該功能將提供我們真正計劃在年底前推出的每日兼容建議今年。

  • So all of this being said, is really ultimately the design of a tight and focused team and led by that really excellent new general manager. So overall, we're pleased with the progress, and we are maintaining our product focus to continue the positive momentum.

    因此,所有這一切實際上最終是由那位非常出色的新總經理領導的緊密而專注的團隊的設計。總的來說,我們對進展感到滿意,我們將保持我們的產品重點以繼續保持積極勢頭。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

    謝謝你。稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital 的 Laura Champine。

  • Laura Allyson Champine - Director of Research

    Laura Allyson Champine - Director of Research

  • On the guide for -- or the initial outlook for next year's revenues to grow in sort of a teens range -- how does that compare to your thoughts on the long-term opportunity for Bumble Inc., total company revenue growth.

    關於明年收入增長的指南或初步展望,與您對 Bumble Inc. 的長期機會、公司總收入增長的想法相比如何。

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • Maybe I'll start with that and the others can chime in. I think we do think -- we've talked in the past about the TAM in both online dating, but really in the kind of social connection space as we're defining it as we think about BFF, Bizz, other areas like that. I think that -- if you look at the Bumble App growth rate, we do think that there is a lot of reason to believe that both international expansion and the continued expansion of the market opportunities will continue to keep Bumble App growing in the future.

    也許我會從這個開始,其他人可以插話。我想我們確實認為——我們過去曾在網上約會中討論過 TAM,但實際上是在我們定義的那種社交聯繫空間中就像我們考慮 BFF、Bizz 和其他類似領域一樣。我認為 - 如果你看看 Bumble App 的增長率,我們確實認為有很多理由相信國際擴張和市場機會的持續擴張將繼續保持 Bumble App 在未來的增長。

  • And then you layer on top of that, both the opportunity we have with some of our other apps like Badoo, Fruitz, others that we may incubate over time. And of course, BFF, we do think there's a tremendous amount of runway in online dating and in the connection space. We are not really focusing on what could 2026 look like or at least we're not going to speculate on that, but we do think there's tremendous headroom, both on a secular basis and given the performance that we've had in terms of gaining market share.

    然後你在上面疊加,我們有機會使用我們的其他一些應用程序,如 Badoo、Fruitz,以及我們可能會隨著時間的推移孵化的其他應用程序。當然,BFF,我們確實認為在線約會和連接空間中有大量的跑道。我們並沒有真正關注 2026 年會是什麼樣子,或者至少我們不會對此進行推測,但我們確實認為無論是在長期基礎上還是考慮到我們在獲得收益方面的表現,都有巨大的上升空間市場份額。

  • Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

    Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

  • Just one on more Bumble App basis. I think what's really exciting and remarkable and you're seeing very early indicators of this, the compliment, you look at the historic nature of how the product works given this powerful brand functionality and core user proposition of a woman making the first move. This is the foundation of our business, and this is so strong and core to our future, but we've never had any really interesting forms of engagement pre-match.

    只是一個基於更多 Bumble App 的基礎。我認為真正令人興奮和非凡的是,你看到了這方面的早期跡象,恭維,你看看產品如何運作的歷史性質,考慮到女性邁出第一步的強大品牌功能和核心用戶主張。這是我們業務的基礎,這對我們的未來是如此強大和核心,但我們從未有過任何真正有趣的賽前參與形式。

  • And so when you think about the product unlock in the year ahead and the years ahead, there's exciting opportunities there as well.

    因此,當您考慮未來一年和未來幾年的產品解鎖時,那裡也有令人興奮的機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from Benjamin Black with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的本傑明布萊克。

  • Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst

    Benjamin Thomas Black - Research Analyst

  • Great. It'd be great to hear your perspective on how Bumble App KPIs have trended in some of your newer international markets. And -- and how should we be thinking about the timing of new international launches from here? And secondly, Whitney, you spoke a bit about the product road map for Bumble App next year. Could you just dig a little bit deeper into what we should expect in 2023? And how should sort of the newer product suite sort of impact the model should be drivers of conversion? Or should we have a bigger impact on ARPPU?

    偉大的。很高興聽到您對 Bumble App KPI 在一些較新的國際市場中的趨勢的看法。而且 - 我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始新的國際發布的時間?其次,惠特尼,你談到了明年 Bumble App 的產品路線圖。您能否更深入地了解我們在 2023 年應該期待什麼?新產品套件應該如何影響模型應該成為轉化的驅動因素?還是我們應該對 ARPPU 產生更大的影響?

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • Sure. I'll start with the international growth piece and then turn it to it for the product piece. I'll focus on Western Europe, happy to talk about some of our other markets, but just to make it specific what we're really seeing as we go into these markets is that we are able to establish the brand, the brand favorability, as Whitney was talking about really lays the foundation for strong organic growth in all of our international markets.

    當然。我將從國際增長部分開始,然後將其轉向產品部分。我將專注於西歐,很高興談論我們的其他一些市場,但只是為了具體說明我們進入這些市場時真正看到的是我們能夠建立品牌,品牌好感度,正如 Whitney 所說,這確實為我們所有國際市場的強勁有機增長奠定了基礎。

  • We actually see that there is really a core of organic growth that we build on top of as opposed to just coming in and laying tons of marketing into a market. We really try and lay that organic foundation. And then the market with our marketing on top of it tends to build into this healthy virtuous cycle.

    我們實際上看到,我們真正建立在有機增長的核心之上,而不是僅僅進入並向市場投放大量營銷。我們真的在努力打下有機的基礎。然後以我們的營銷為基礎的市場往往會進入這種健康的良性循環。

  • So if you look at what that means in a market like Germany, as an example. You would see -- to start with a strong and growing brand preference, you would see that leading to strong organic growth. And then you would really see that the ecosystem is continuing to grow. We talk a lot about new registrations, new registrations continue to be very high. You can see this in the third-party data around download share where we are continuing even in the face of a lot of competitive spend to gain download share in that market.

    因此,如果您看看這在德國這樣的市場中意味著什麼,例如。你會看到 - 從強大且不斷增長的品牌偏好開始,你會看到這會導致強勁的有機增長。然後你會真正看到生態系統正在繼續發展。我們談論了很多關於新註冊的問題,新註冊仍然很高。你可以在有關下載份額的第三方數據中看到這一點,即使面對大量競爭性支出,我們仍在繼續獲取該市場的下載份額。

  • And as Whitney said, closing in on the #1 position in that market, you see it in terms of reengagement rates where if people find a relationship, they go off the app for a little while, they come back, they're doing that at a very high rate as well. So you build that preference, we're seeing it in retention rates. And then monetization and the payer dynamics builds over time because you need that critical mass to make the payment options worthwhile. So that's a well-worn path that we have. You see this in that DACH region, you see it in France, you see it, as Whit mentioned, emerging in Spain where we just launched in July. And we think that, that playbook is one that we can use pretty quickly around different markets.

    正如惠特尼所說,接近該市場的第一名,你可以從重新參與率的角度來看,如果人們找到了一段關係,他們會離開應用程序一段時間,然後回來,他們正在這樣做也以非常高的速度。所以你建立了這種偏好,我們在保留率中看到了它。然後隨著時間的推移貨幣化和支付者動態建立起來,因為你需要那個臨界質量來使支付選項有價值。所以這是我們擁有的一條陳舊的道路。你在 DACH 地區看到了這一點,你在法國看到了它,正如 Whit 提到的那樣,你看到了它在我們剛剛於 7 月推出的西班牙出現。我們認為,該劇本是我們可以在不同市場中快速使用的劇本。

  • We have a lot of organic -- if you looked at markets that we haven't launched in, you would actually see in most of these markets a healthy level of organic demand that's there. That is something we nurture through the localization of the product and through the brand kind of the global brand work that we do. And it makes it relatively straightforward us to go into a market like Spain and really amplify what's already there.

    我們有很多有機產品——如果你看看我們尚未推出的市場,你實際上會在大多數這些市場中看到健康的有機需求水平。這是我們通過產品本地化和我們所做的全球品牌工作的品牌類型培育的東西。這讓我們進入西班牙這樣的市場並真正擴大現有市場變得相對簡單。

  • And so we do have, as we mentioned, plans to complete our Western European launches next year, we've been moving very quickly through our Latin American -- the major markets in Latin America and Southeast Asia. And there's a couple of others that we're taking a very close look at, and we'll come back as we get into Q1 with more definitive plans on that.

    因此,正如我們所提到的,我們確實有計劃在明年完成我們在西歐的發布,我們一直在非常迅速地通過我們的拉丁美洲 - 拉丁美洲和東南亞的主要市場。還有一些我們正在密切關注的其他項目,我們會在進入第一季度時回來製定更明確的計劃。

  • Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

    Whitney Wolfe Herd - Founder, CEO & Director

  • So now turning to Bumble product strategy. So we've had an exciting year to date with product launches and innovation. And looking ahead, we feel great about our road map. So in 2022 to recap, we spent a lot of time advancing our offerings, specifically as it relates to leveraging technologies such as machine learning and AI to deliver product experiences that drive safety and trust and relevance.

    所以現在轉向 Bumble 產品策略。因此,到目前為止,我們在產品發布和創新方面度過了激動人心的一年。展望未來,我們對我們的路線圖感覺良好。因此,回顧一下,在 2022 年,我們花了很多時間來改進我們的產品,特別是因為它涉及利用機器學習和人工智能等技術來提供推動安全、信任和相關性的產品體驗。

  • So as we look to the year ahead, we're really taking a two-pronged approach to product development. I want to underpin that by saying we do not carve out safety and women first initiatives as a lane or as a (inaudible) of our strategy, it is the underpinning of everything we do. So as I talk you through this two-pronged approach, please note that women first safety and time connections is baked into this entire strategy.

    因此,展望未來一年,我們確實採取了雙管齊下的產品開發方法。我想強調的是,我們不會將安全和女性優先倡議作為我們戰略的一條車道或(聽不清),這是我們所做的一切的基礎。因此,當我通過這種雙管齊下的方法向您介紹時,請注意,女性優先安全和時間聯繫已納入整個策略。

  • So that said, we are going to be focusing on: one, driving engagement and two, increasing monetization. Both of these things will just increase the overall health of the ecosystem. So on engagement, 2023 is all about building products that cater to our user demographics specific wants and needs. Dating is not one size fits all. And we have active and rapid growing user bases in so many different cohorts and segments. So we are prioritizing experiences that are particularly focused on delivering these unique and engaging experiences that really resonate with these cohorts in specificity.

    也就是說,我們將專注於:一是推動參與,二是增加貨幣化。這兩件事只會增加生態系統的整體健康狀況。因此,在參與度方面,2023 年的重點是構建滿足我們用戶人口統計特定需求的產品。約會不是一刀切的。我們在許多不同的群體和細分市場中擁有活躍且快速增長的用戶群。因此,我們正在優先考慮那些特別專注於提供這些獨特且引人入勝的體驗的體驗,這些體驗真正引起了這些人群的共鳴。

  • So Gen Z users, for example, socialize and they engage much differently than millennials do. That doesn't mean they don't use our product and don't want to, but there is nuance in how they do it and what the intentions are behind it. Therefore, we're going to be giving them product that really resonates and creates virality within their group.

    因此,例如,Z 世代用戶的社交方式和參與方式與千禧一代大不相同。這並不意味著他們不使用我們的產品,也不想使用我們的產品,但在他們的使用方式和背後的意圖方面存在細微差別。因此,我們將為他們提供真正能在他們的團隊中引起共鳴並產生病毒式傳播的產品。

  • We will continue to innovate for our millennial users as well, of course. There is so huge demand and upside for that segment, and they want things like curated offerings, and we see this opportunity to really continue to engage with that group around those offerings and to further expand those.

    當然,我們也將繼續為我們的千禧一代用戶進行創新。該細分市場有如此巨大的需求和上升空間,他們想要諸如策劃產品之類的東西,我們看到了這個機會,可以真正繼續圍繞這些產品與該群體進行互動,並進一步擴大這些產品。

  • So now turning to monetization. We are taking a barbell approach. So when we look at higher tier and longer-duration products for more affluent customers, we can still think about this shorter duration and lower care offering and consumables for users, but limited or more limited spending power than that first group. So for example, compliments is live in New York and New England as we speak. We'll be continuing to roll these out to the rest of the U.S., but with nuances, and of course, the world.

    所以現在轉向貨幣化。我們正在採取槓鈴方法。因此,當我們為更富裕的客戶尋找更高層次和更長持續時間的產品時,我們仍然可以考慮為用戶提供的持續時間更短、護理更少的產品和消耗品,但與第一組相比,他們的消費能力有限或更有限。例如,就在我們說話的時候,讚美在紐約和新英格蘭上演。我們將繼續將這些推廣到美國其他地區,但會有細微差別,當然還有全世界。

  • But with Nuance for these different groups, college bundles are also live and those have been resonating well. So those are 2 examples of how we can kind of target these different groups. So with engagement and monetization at the front and center of this product road map, we will really just continue to lean into great experiences, premier experiences. We believe that this approach will position us to advance our lead with Gen Z users, which is so important, while driving monetization in the year ahead with both categories.

    但是有了針對這些不同群體的 Nuance,大學捆綁包也上線了,並且引起了很好的共鳴。所以這些是我們如何針對這些不同群體的兩個例子。因此,通過將參與和貨幣化置於該產品路線圖的前沿和中心,我們將真正繼續專注於出色的體驗,一流的體驗。我們相信,這種方法將使我們能夠提升我們在 Z 世代用戶中的領先地位,這非常重要,同時在未來一年推動這兩個類別的貨幣化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk。

  • Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

    Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Maybe just following up on a couple of the earlier questions. In the initial '23 outlook, what's sort of the underlying assumption in terms of Bumble App revenue growth for '23? And then just coming back to marketing, as you think about some of your largest competitors sort of increasing their spend and being more present in the marketing backdrop next year? How are you thinking about sort of your marketing spend on a year-over-year basis?

    好的。偉大的。也許只是跟進幾個較早的問題。在最初的 23 年展望中,關於 23 年 Bumble App 收入增長的基本假設是什麼?然後回到市場營銷,當你想到你的一些最大的競爭對手明年增加他們的支出並更多地出現在營銷背景中時?您如何看待與去年同期相比的營銷支出?

  • Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

    Anuradha B. Subramanian - CFO

  • Yes. So we are not right now going to sort of break out specific numbers for Bumble App. We'll obviously give that when we provide formal guidance. Like I've said, Lauren, I think Bumble App will still be the major driver for growth next year. So that is expected. And again, paying users within Bumble App will be a large function of where the growth comes from.

    是的。所以我們現在不打算為 Bumble App 列出具體數字。當我們提供正式指導時,我們顯然會給出這一點。正如我所說,Lauren,我認為 Bumble App 明年仍將是增長的主要驅動力。所以這是意料之中的。再次強調,Bumble App 內的付費用戶將成為增長的重要來源。

  • With respect to our spend philosophy, like I said, we do want to -- and we've committed this since we've been public. We are committed to expanding our long-term margins, and you've seen us do that this year. And next year, we want to expand our margins at least by 100 basis points. As we think about our areas of spend, our philosophy next year, especially given the larger macro environment is going to be around leaning into areas that are critical for the growth of our business.

    關於我們的支出理念,就像我說的那樣,我們確實想要——而且自從我們公開以來,我們就承諾了這一點。我們致力於擴大我們的長期利潤率,你已經看到我們今年這樣做了。明年,我們希望將利潤率至少提高 100 個基點。當我們考慮我們的支出領域時,我們明年的理念,特別是考慮到更大的宏觀環境將圍繞對我們業務增長至關重要的領域傾斜。

  • We think about investing areas of product and technology that we really need to beef up on such as whether it's AI, machine learning, data engineering, things like that. So you will see us continue to invest in specific pockets of the business where we want to lean in. On the marketing side, obviously, international growth, like Tariq was just saying, is still a huge pillar and a big driver of revenue for us. So you will see us spend money there, but we are also taking a very hard look at every area of spend within marketing to make sure that each dollar that we spend is meeting the high thresholds we have for ROI returns, ROEs, et cetera, et cetera. So this is definitely a line item that we want to see leverage on next year, but it's also a line item where you will see us spend money on, especially in areas that we want to grow and invest in. And largely -- and then finally, we've built up, obviously, our infrastructure since we've gone public. So we feel pretty good about being largely built out.

    我們考慮投資我們真正需要加強的產品和技術領域,例如人工智能、機器學習、數據工程等。所以你會看到我們繼續投資於我們想要涉足的特定業務領域。顯然,在營銷方面,國際增長,就像塔里克剛才說的,仍然是我們巨大的支柱和收入的重要驅動力.所以你會看到我們在那里花錢,但我們也非常認真地審視營銷中的每個支出領域,以確保我們花的每一美元都符合我們對 ROI 回報、ROE 等的高門檻,等等。所以這絕對是我們希望在明年看到影響力的一個項目,但它也是一個你會看到我們花錢的項目,特別是在我們想要增長和投資的領域。而且主要 - 然後最後,顯然,自從我們上市以來,我們已經建立了我們的基礎設施。因此,我們對在很大程度上被擴建感到非常滿意。

  • We still have a few pockets where we need to invest in. But as you think about G&A, that's also another area where we are looking to create leverage next year. And the final thing I will say is, obviously, given what's happening in the world, the bar for growing headcount next year and so funding anything within the company is going to be very, very high.

    我們仍然有一些需要投資的地方。但是當你想到 G&A 時,這也是我們明年希望創造影響力的另一個領域。最後我要說的是,顯然,考慮到世界上正在發生的事情,明年增加員工人數的門檻以及公司內部任何資金的門檻都將非常非常高。

  • And we expect that our growth in headcount will be much lower than what we've seen in the past. I mean we are still very much focused on investing in the right areas. But again, the bar that we are applying to the company and to ourselves is going to be very, very high. So again, I look forward to providing more specific information in a few months.

    我們預計我們的員工人數增長將遠低於我們過去看到的水平。我的意思是我們仍然非常專注於在正確的領域進行投資。但同樣,我們對公司和我們自己施加的門檻將非常非常高。因此,我再次期待在幾個月內提供更具體的信息。

  • Tariq M. Shaukat - President

    Tariq M. Shaukat - President

  • And then maybe on the marketing side real quick. I think the -- we have been -- we have a very unique marketing approach that is not something that you see in the industry, typically, a lot of focus on the micro and the brand elements of this, we've seen even in Q3 and Q2, a fairly considerable amount of competitive spends, and we have continued to gain share without -- just by relying on our historical differentiated marketing posture. So we feel pretty confident we can continue to do that.

    然後也許在營銷方面很快。我認為 - 我們一直 - 我們有一種非常獨特的營銷方法,這不是您在行業中看到的東西,通常,很多關注微觀和品牌元素,我們甚至在第三季度和第二季度,相當可觀的競爭性支出,我們繼續獲得份額,而沒有——僅僅依靠我們歷史上的差異化營銷姿態。所以我們非常有信心我們可以繼續這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

    謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。每個人,祝你有美好的一天。