Banco Macro SA (BMA) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's fourth-quarter '25 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that the 4Q '25 press release is available to download at Investor Relations website of Banco Macro at www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. (Operator Instructions) Also, this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

各位女士、先生，早安，感謝您的等候。此刻，我們歡迎各位參加 Banco Macro 2025 年第四季（4Q '25）財報電話會議。我們在此通知各位，2025 年第四季新聞稿可於 Banco Macro 投資人關係網站 www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores 下載。（接線員指示）此外，本次活動將進行錄音。（接線員指示）

It's now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Juan Parma, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, Investor Relations.

現在很榮幸為各位介紹本次會議的講者。來自阿根廷與會的有：執行長 Juan Parma 先生；財務長 Jorge Scarinci 先生；以及投資人關係 Nicolas Torres 先生。

Now I'll turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference, sir.

接下來我將把會議交給 Nicolas Torres 先生。先生，請開始。

Thank you, and good morning. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's fourth-quarter 2025 conference call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC and is available on our website. Fourth-quarter 2025 press release was distributed yesterday and it's available on our website.

謝謝，各位早安。早安，歡迎參加 Banco Macro 2025 年第四季電話會議。我們今天可能發表的任何評論均可能包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述受多項條件影響；相關內容已載於我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交並可於本行網站取得的 20-F 文件中。2025 年第四季新聞稿已於昨日發布，並可於本行網站查閱。

All figures are in Argentina pesos and have been restated in terms of the units referring at the end of the reporting period. As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank.

所有數據均以阿根廷披索計，並已依報導期末的計量單位重述。自 2020 年起，本行依中央銀行規定，依據 IFRS《國際會計準則》第 29 號（IAS 29）採用惡性通膨會計編製並揭露財務結果。

For recent comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated behind IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of inflation adjustment for each period through December 31, 2025.

為便於近期比較，先前各季數據已依 IAS 29 重述，以反映截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日各期間通膨調整的累積影響。

I will now briefly comment on Banco's fourth quarter 2025 financial results. In the fourth quarter 2025 Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS100 billion, ARS290.7 billion in fiscal year 2025 recurring from the loss posted in the previous quarter. The result was 26% or ARS34.4 billion lower than the result posted in the fourth quarter of 2024.

接下來我將簡要說明 Banco 2025 年第四季的財務結果。2025 年第四季，Banco Macro 淨利合計為 1,000 億阿根廷披索（ARS），2025 會計年度淨利為 2,907 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較前一季所呈現的虧損回復為獲利。該結果較 2024 年第四季的表現低 26%，或減少 344 億阿根廷披索（ARS）。

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the accumulated annualized return on average equity and accumulated annualized return on our assets were 5.1% and 1.4%, respectively. Excluding ARS82.9 billion of nonrecurring expenses in the fourth quarter of 2025, net income would have totaled ARS183 billion and ARS393.7 billion in fiscal year 2025. And accumulated ROE and ROA would have been 6.6% and 1.8% respectively.

2025 年第四季，累計年化平均股東權益報酬率（ROE）與累計年化資產報酬率（ROA）分別為 5.1% 與 1.4%。若排除 2025 年第四季 829 億阿根廷披索（ARS）的一次性費用，淨利將達 1,830 億阿根廷披索（ARS），而 2025 會計年度淨利將達 3,937 億阿根廷披索（ARS）。累計 ROE 與 ROA 則分別為 6.6% 與 1.8%。

In fiscal year 2025, net income totaled to ARS290.7 billion, 32% lower than in fiscal year 2024. Total comprehensive income totaled ARS303 billion and was 1% higher than the fiscal year 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, ARS82.9 billion restructuring expenses were recorded related to our retirement plans and provisions for severance statements.

2025 會計年度淨利合計為 2,907 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度低 32%。綜合損益總額合計為 3,030 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度高 1%。2025 年第四季，認列 829 億阿根廷披索（ARS）的重整費用，與本行退休計畫及資遣費準備相關。

Excluding nonrecurring expenses fourth-quarter '25 net income would have been ARS183 billion and fiscal year 2025 net income would have totaled ARS393.7 billion, excluding the third quarter and fourth quarter 2025 nonrecurring expenses.

若排除一次性費用，2025 年第四季淨利將為 1,830 億阿根廷披索（ARS）；而 2025 會計年度淨利將合計為 3,937 億阿根廷披索（ARS），此係排除 2025 年第三季與第四季的一次性費用後之數字。

Representing an accumulated ROE on our rate of 6.6% and 1.8% respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2025, operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses, total of ARS1.17 trillion, 39% or ARS324.2 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2025 and 9% from ARS94.4 billion higher than in the same period of last year.

分別相當於累計 ROE 與 ROA 為 6.6% 與 1.8%。2025 年第四季，扣除一般、管理及人員費用前之營業利益合計為 1.17 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2025 年第三季增加 39%（或 3,242 億阿根廷披索（ARS）），並較去年同期增加 9%（或 944 億阿根廷披索（ARS））。

Fiscal year 2025, net operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses totaled ARS4.1 trillion, 33% lower than fiscal year 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, provision for loan losses totaled ARS169.3 million, 1% from ARS1.8 million lower than in the third quarter of 2025.

2025 會計年度，扣除一般、管理及人員費用前之淨營業利益合計為 4.1 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度低 33%。2025 年第四季，放款損失準備合計為 1.693 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2025 年第三季低 1%（或減少 180 萬阿根廷披索（ARS））。

On a yearly basis, provision for loan loses increased 243% or ARS120 million. In Fiscal year 2025, provision for loan loses totaled ARS538.1 million and were 274% higher than fiscal year 2024.

以年度比較，放款損失準備增加 243%，或增加 1.20 億阿根廷披索（ARS）。2025 會計年度，放款損失準備合計為 5.381 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度高 274%。

In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS836.5 billion, 13% or ARS96.4 billion higher than the third quarter of 2025 and 19% or ARS135.9 billion higher year-on-year. This result is giving a 7% increase in interest income and a 1% decrease in interest expense. In fiscal year 2025, net interest income totaled ARS3.1 trillion and was 44% higher than fiscal year 2024.

本季淨利息收入合計為 8,365 億阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2025 年第三季增加 13%（或 964 億阿根廷披索（ARS）），並較去年同期增加 19%（或 1,359 億阿根廷披索（ARS））。此結果反映利息收入增加 7%，利息費用下降 1%。2025 會計年度淨利息收入合計為 3.1 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度高 44%。

Interest income of 8% while interest expense decreased 23%. In the fourth quarter of 2025, interest income totaled ARS1.4 billion and 7% from ARS91.6 billion higher than third quarter 2025 up 30% or ARS324.1 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2024.

利息收入增加 8%，而利息費用下降 23%。2025 年第四季，利息收入合計為 1.4 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2025 年第三季增加 7%（或增加 916 億阿根廷披索（ARS）），並較 2024 年第四季增加 30%（或增加 3,241 億阿根廷披索（ARS））。

In fiscal year 2025, interest income totaled ARS5 trillion, 8% higher than fiscal year 2024. Income from interest on loans and other financing totaled ARS1.44 trillion, 3% or ARS33.5 billion higher compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to a 141 basis points increase in the average lending rate, while the average volume of private sector loans remained almost unchanged.

2025 會計年度，利息收入合計為 5 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度高 8%。放款及其他融資利息收入合計為 1.44 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較前一季增加 3%（或 335 億阿根廷披索（ARS）），主要係平均放款利率上升 141 個基點所致，而民間部門放款平均餘額幾乎維持不變。

On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans increased 58%, were ARS379.3 billion and in fiscal year 2025, income in interest on loans and other finance will total ARS3.61 trillion, 13% higher than the fiscal year 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2024, interest on loans represent 74% of the total interest income.

以年度比較，放款利息收入增加 58%，達 3,793 億阿根廷披索（ARS）；2025 會計年度放款及其他融資利息收入合計將達 3.61 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度高 13%。2024 年第四季，放款利息占總利息收入的 74%。

In the fourth quarter of 2025, income from government and private securities stood at 105% to ARS306 million quarter-on-quarter and decreased 1% or ARS6.2 million compared with the same period of last year.

2025 年第四季，政府及民間證券收益季增 105% 至 3.06 億阿根廷披索（ARS），並較去年同期下降 1%（或減少 620 萬阿根廷披索（ARS））。

Fiscal year 2025, income from the government of private securities totaled ARS176 trillion, 58% lower than fiscal year 2024. The fourth quarter of 2025 in terms of FX, the bank's strategy to remain short in US dollar during the second half of 2025 proven successful.

2025 會計年度，政府及民間證券收益合計為 176 兆阿根廷披索（ARS），較 2024 會計年度低 58%。就 2025 年第四季外匯（FX）而言，本行於 2025 年下半年維持美元空頭部位的策略證明是成功的。

The combination of the short dollar position together with the (inaudible) position and the allocation of the pesos generated by the sale of US dollars resulted in a net gain of ARS26.3 billion.

美元空頭部位與（聽不清）部位的組合，以及出售美元所取得披索資金的配置，共同帶來 263 億阿根廷披索（ARS）的淨收益。

In the fourth quarter of 2025, interest expense totaled ARS565.1 billion, decreasing 1% or ARS4.8 billion compared to the previous quarter and 50% higher compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.

2025年第四季，利息費用合計為ARS565.1十億，較前一季減少1%或ARS4.8十億，且較2024年第四季高出50%。

In fiscal year 2025, interest expense totaled ARS193 trillion, 23% lower than fiscal year 2024. Within interest expenses, interest on (inaudible) quarter-on-quarter due to 168 basis points decrease in the average rate paid on (inaudible) the average volume of private sector deposit increase 7%.

2025會計年度，利息費用合計為ARS193兆，較2024會計年度低23%。在利息費用中，（聽不清）之利息因（聽不清）所支付的平均利率下降168個基點，以及民間部門存款平均餘額增加7%，使其較前一季下降。

On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 48% or ARS107.6 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the (inaudible) net interest margin, including FX, was 21.7% higher than the 18% posted in the third quarter of 2025 and lower than 24.7% posted in the fourth quarter 2024.

以年度比較，存款利息增加48%或ARS107.6百萬。2025年第四季，（聽不清）淨利差（含外匯）為21.7%，高於2025年第三季的18%，但低於2024年第四季的24.7%。

In the fourth quarter of 2025, (inaudible) net income totaled ARS192.4 billion versus 1% or ARS1.2 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2025 and was 8% or ARS89 billion higher than the same period last year.

2025年第四季，（聽不清）淨收益合計為ARS192.4十億，較2025年第三季高1%或ARS1.2十億，並較去年同期高8%或ARS89十億。

Fiscal year 2025, net income totaled ARS767.4 million, which was 20% higher than fiscal year 2024. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS72.3 billion 3% or 2.1% lower than in the third quarter of 2025 due to lower other income and lower service-related fees, which were partially offset by higher income from each (inaudible) and on a yearly basis, our operating income increased 30% or (inaudible).

2025會計年度，淨收益合計為ARS767.4百萬，較2024會計年度高20%。本季其他營業收入合計為ARS72.3十億，較2025年第三季低3%或2.1%，主因其他收入與服務相關費用較低，部分由各項（聽不清）收入較高所抵銷；以年度比較，我們的營業收入增加30%或（聽不清）。

In fiscal year 2025, our operating income totaled ARS292.1 billion, a change from fiscal year 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Banco Macro's administrative expenses plus employee benefits totaled ARS412.4 billion, 15% or ARS54.8 billion higher than the previous quarter, due to higher employee benefits, which increased 18%, and higher administrative expenses, which increased 8%. On a yearly basis, administrative expenses plus employee benefits increased 20% or ARS68 billion. In fiscal year 2025 administrative expenses plus employee benefits were unchanged compared to fiscal year 2024. Employee benefits increased 18% or ARS45.8 billion quarter-on-quarter.

2025會計年度，我們的營業收入合計為ARS292.1十億，較2024會計年度有所變動。2025年第四季，Banco Macro的管理費用加員工福利合計為ARS412.4十億，較前一季高15%或ARS54.8十億，係因員工福利增加18%以及管理費用增加8%。以年度比較，管理費用加員工福利增加20%或ARS68十億。2025會計年度之管理費用加員工福利與2024會計年度相比持平。員工福利較前一季增加18%或ARS45.8十億。

Compensation and bonuses increased 156% or ARS68.7 billion. In fourth quarter of 2025, the bank recorded ARS82.9 billion restructuring expenses related to early retirement plans and severance payment provisions. Excluding restructuring expenses, employee benefits would have decreased 8% or ARS17.1 billion. On a yearly basis, employee benefits decreased 30% or ARS67.5 billion, and excluding restructuring expenses, employee benefits would have been 7% or ARS15.4 billion lower. In fiscal year 2025, employee benefits associated with personnel involved in restructuring expenses totaled ARS49 billion.

薪酬與獎金增加156%或ARS68.7十億。2025年第四季，本行認列與提前退休計畫及資遣費準備相關之重整費用ARS82.9十億。若排除重整費用，員工福利將下降8%或ARS17.1十億。以年度比較，員工福利下降30%或ARS67.5十億；若排除重整費用，員工福利將低7%或ARS15.4十億。2025會計年度，與重整費用相關之人員員工福利合計為ARS49十億。

In the fourth quarter of 2025, efficiency ratio reached 38.7%, improving from the 46.5% posted in third quarter of 2025 and the 39.4% posted one year ago. In fourth quarter of 2025, expenses increased 13%, while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income increased 36% compared to the third quarter of 2025. It is worth mentioning that during fiscal year 2025 Banco Macro reduced its branch network by 75 branches down to 444 branches from 519 branches in December 2024 and reduced its headcount by 514 employees.

2025年第四季，效率比率達38.7%，較2025年第三季的46.5%及一年前的39.4%改善。2025年第四季，費用增加13%，而淨利息收入加淨手續費收入加其他營業收入較2025年第三季增加36%。值得一提的是，2025會計年度期間Banco Macro將分行網絡縮減75家，自2024年12月的519家降至444家，並將員工人數減少514人。

All this was achieved while gaining market share, both in private sector loans and private sector deposits. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the result from the net monetary position totaled ARS277 billion loss, 27% or ARS58.6 billion higher than the loss posted in third quarter of 2025 and 5% or ARS13.2 billion lower than the loss posted one year ago.

上述成果是在民間部門放款與民間部門存款兩方面皆提升市占率的情況下達成。2025年第四季，淨貨幣部位結果為損失ARS277十億，較2025年第三季的損失高27%或ARS58.6十億，且較一年前的損失低5%或ARS13.2十億。

Higher inflation was observed during the quarter, 189 basis points above third quarter of 2025. Inflation was 7.86% compared to 5.97% in the third quarter of 2025. In fiscal year 2025 the result from the net monetary position totaled ARS1.05 trillion loss, 66% lower than the one posted in fiscal year 2024. Inflation in 2025 reached 31.5% compared to the 117.8% registered in 2024. In fourth quarter of 2025, Banco Macro's effective income tax rate was 42.7%.

本季觀察到較高通膨，較2025年第三季高出189個基點。通膨率為7.86%，相較2025年第三季的5.97%。2025會計年度，淨貨幣部位結果為損失ARS1.05兆，較2024會計年度低66%。2025年通膨達31.5%，相較2024年登記的117.8%。2025年第四季，Banco Macro的有效所得稅率為42.7%。

In fiscal year 2025 the effective tax rate was 43.1%, higher than the 9.2% registered in fiscal year 2024. Further information is provided in Note 24 of our Financial Statements. In terms of loan growth, the bank's total financing reached ARS10.71 trillion, decreasing 2% or ARS211 billion quarter-on-quarter and increasing 40% or ARS3.1 trillion year-on-year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, peso financing increased 2% or ARS196.4 billion, while US dollar financing decreased 20% or $407 million. In fiscal year 2025 both peso financing and US dollar financing increased 36% and 12% respectively.

2025會計年度有效稅率為43.1%，高於2024會計年度的9.2%。更多資訊請參閱本公司財務報表附註24。就放款成長而言，本行總融資餘額達ARS10.71兆，較前一季減少2%或ARS211十億，並較去年同期增加40%或ARS3.1兆。2025年第四季，比索融資增加2%或ARS196.4十億，而美元融資減少20%或4.07億美元。2025會計年度，比索融資與美元融資分別增加36%與12%。

It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of December 2025 was 8.6%, increasing 30 basis points compared to December 2024. On the funding side, total deposits increased 8% or ARS958.1 billion quarter-on-quarter totaling ARS13.7 trillion and increased 24% or ARS2.6 trillion year-on-year. Private sector deposits increased 11% or ARS1.26 trillion quarter-on-quarter while public sector deposits decreased 33% or ARS310.4 billion quarter-on-quarter. In increase in private sector deposits were offset by time deposits which increased 17% or ARS978.5 billion while demand deposits increased 5% or ARS308.1 billion quarter-on-quarter.

重要的是，截至2025年12月，Banco Macro在民間部門放款的市占率為8.6%，較2024年12月增加30個基點。在資金來源方面，總存款較前一季增加8%或ARS958.1十億，合計為ARS13.7兆，並較去年同期增加24%或ARS2.6兆。民間部門存款較前一季增加11%或ARS1.26兆，而公部門存款較前一季減少33%或ARS310.4十億。民間部門存款的增加主要來自定期存款較前一季增加17%或ARS978.5十億，而活期存款較前一季增加5%或ARS308.1十億。

In the quarter, peso deposits increased 3% or ARS234.9 billion, while US dollar deposits increased 10% or $300 million. On a yearly basis, peso deposits increased 18%, while dollar deposits decreased 4%. As of December 2025, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 47% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits as of December 2025 totaled 7.9%, 90 basis points higher than December 2024. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's non-performing to total financing ratio reached 3.87%.

本季，比索存款增加3%或ARS234.9十億，而美元存款增加10%或3億美元。以年度比較，比索存款增加18%，而美元存款減少4%。截至2025年12月，Banco Macro的交易性帳戶約占總存款的47%。截至2025年12月，Banco Macro在民間部門存款的市占率為7.9%，較2024年12月高90個基點。就資產品質而言，Banco Macro的不良放款占總融資比率達3.87%。

The coverage ratio, measured as total allowances under expected credit losses over non performing loans under central bank rules, reached 119.86%. Commercial portfolio non-performing loans improved 17 basis points down to 0.68% from 0.85% in the previous quarter while consumer portfolio non-performing loans deteriorated 93 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2025 up to 5.23% from 4.3% in the third quarter of 2025. In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS3.6 trillion, which represented a capital adequacy ratio of 30.6% and Tier 1 ratio of 30.6%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate.

覆蓋率（依央行規定，以預期信用損失下之總備抵除以不良貸款衡量）達到 119.86%。商業組合不良貸款率改善 17 個基點，由前一季的 0.85% 降至 0.68%；而消費者組合不良貸款率於 2025 年第四季惡化 93 個基點，由 2025 年第三季的 4.3% 升至 5.23%。就資本而言，Banco Macro 計入超額資本 ARS 3.6 兆，資本適足率為 30.6%，第一類資本比率（Tier 1）亦為 30.6%。本行的目標是善用這些超額資本。本行流動性仍然綽綽有餘。

Liquid assets to total deposits ratio reached 73%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue to show a solid financial position. Asset quality remain under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards and we keep a well optimized deposit base.

流動資產占總存款比率達到 73%。整體而言，我們又交出一個正向的季度表現。我們持續展現穩健的財務狀況。資產品質仍在控制之中並受到密切監控。我們持續努力進一步提升效率標準，並維持高度優化的存款基礎。

At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.

此時，我們想請各位提出問題。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Brian Flores, Citi.

Brian Flores，花旗。

I have a first question here on your guidance. I just wanted to know if there is an update on the soft guidance you provided in the last months after the election. I think it was 35% in real terms for loans, 25% in deposits and low teens in ROE.

我這裡第一個問題是關於你們的指引。我想了解一下，在選舉後過去幾個月你們提供的軟性指引是否有更新。我記得是貸款以實質計 35%、存款 25%，以及 ROE 低十幾%。

So I just wanted to check if any of these variables in your view has changed. I know it's a very fluid environment in Argentina. So just checking on that. And then a second question just very quick. We saw strong security gains recovering from public securities.

所以我想確認一下，依你們的看法，這些變數是否有任何改變。我知道阿根廷的環境非常多變。所以只是想確認一下。然後第二個問題很快。我們看到來自公債的強勁證券收益回升。

So I just wanted to understand how in your view would this be considered? Or how much would be considered recurring in nature and how much stemming from the volatility that we had in the election cycle?

所以我想了解，依你們的看法，這會如何被看待？或者其中有多少可被視為具經常性、又有多少是源自選舉週期期間的波動？

Brian, this is Jorge Scarinci. Yes, on your first question, yes, we are going to maybe modify a little bit our guidance basically according to local consensus of economists are reducing a little bit the real GDP growth for 2026 to levels of between 2.8% to 3%. And also in addition to that, there is also the consensus is estimating a higher inflation for '26 compared to the one that we were working with in the last quarter of last year that was 20%, and now the new update is 27%.

Brian，我是 Jorge Scarinci。是的，關於你的第一個問題，我們可能會依據當地經濟學家共識稍微調整指引：他們將 2026 年實質 GDP 成長率小幅下修至約 2.8% 到 3% 的水準。此外，共識也預估 2026 年通膨將高於我們去年第四季所採用的假設（當時為 20%），最新更新為 27%。

So due to those -- I mean, modifications on those two macroeconomic variables, we are also fine-tuning our guidance for growth for 2026. In terms of loans, we're expecting 20% real growth in the calendar year of '26 and deposit growth of 6% in real terms.

因此，基於這兩項宏觀變數的調整，我們也在微調 2026 年的成長指引。就貸款而言，我們預期 2026 年曆年實質成長 20%，存款以實質計成長 6%。

Also, as you could see in this press release, we have started to report a kind of reported ROE and ROA and also an adjusted ROE and ROA due to the restructuring charges that we posted in the fourth quarter and we expect some other of this type to come between first and second quarter of '26. So in terms of, I would say, adjusted ROE for '26, we are working with a level of 8% area, basically in terms of ROE and in terms of ROA close to 1.8% to 2% area, right? So that is answering your first question in terms of guidance.

另外，如你在本次新聞稿中所見，我們已開始揭露一種「報告口徑」的 ROE 與 ROA，以及因第四季認列的重整費用而調整後的 ROE 與 ROA；我們預期 2026 年第一季到第二季之間還會出現一些同類型項目。因此，就 2026 年的調整後 ROE 而言，我們的假設大約在 8% 左右；而 ROA 約接近 1.8% 到 2% 的區間，對吧？以上是對你第一個關於指引問題的回覆。

In terms of your second question, in terms of the security gains, I would say that one of the main drivers for the weak quarter that we posted in -- as of September was a bad performance of the bond portfolio related to the increased volatility in the macroeconomic variables due to the midterm election that took place the 27th of October. And what we saw in the fourth quarter was a reversal of trend, some declining nominal and real interest rates and some rebound in the local peso securities that we hold in our portfolio.

至於你的第二個問題、關於證券收益，我會說，我們在 9 月（截至 9 月）所呈現的疲弱季度，其中一個主要驅動因素是債券投資組合表現不佳，這與 10 月 27 日舉行的期中選舉所引發、宏觀變數波動加劇有關。而我們在第四季看到的是趨勢反轉：名目與實質利率下行，以及我們投資組合中持有的本地披索計價證券出現反彈。

So I would attribute most of this to the repricing that we saw in the fourth quarter as a kind of an opposite effect compared to the one that we saw in the third quarter of last year.

因此，我會將其中大部分歸因於我們在第四季看到的重新定價，作為與去年第三季所見情況相反的一種效果。

No, super clear. Just a quick follow-up on maybe the gap between loans and deposits, right? Because it used to be, I would say, narrower. Now it's widening. So I just wanted to understand, you are seeing basically a change in maybe the savings capacity of people, if you think maybe this, as you mentioned, this lower or slower GDP is translating into this change in behavior? Or any color you could give as to why deposits are at this expectation that is maybe significantly lower than the previous base case?

了解，非常清楚。我想快速追問一下，可能是關於貸款與存款之間的缺口，對吧？因為以前我會說這個差距比較小。現在正在擴大。所以我想了解，你們是否基本上看到民眾儲蓄能力出現變化？你是否認為如你提到的較低或較慢的 GDP 正在轉化為這種行為改變？或者你能否補充一些背景，說明為何你們對存款的預期可能顯著低於先前的基準情境？

Well, first, we continue to hold almost 24% of total assets in terms of securities that could be used in case of that we need to finance the gap between the increasing loans and deposits. Even though that we continue to have a loan-to-deposit ratio, of course, below 100%. So even though in relative terms, we are growing or we are expecting to grow more in loans and deposits, but in absolute terms, the difference is not going to be the much. And besides of that, we are forecasting that, for the moment, real interest rates to be slightly positive, and that's why we are not forecasting a big increase in terms of deposits in 2026.

嗯，首先，我們仍持有接近總資產 24% 的證券，若我們需要為貸款增長與存款之間的缺口提供資金，這些證券可供運用。儘管如此，我們的存放比（loan-to-deposit ratio）當然仍低於 100%。所以即便相對而言，我們的貸款與存款成長（或預期成長）中，貸款高於存款，但就絕對金額而言，差距不會太大。此外，我們目前預測實質利率將略為正值，這也是為什麼我們不預期 2026 年存款會大幅增加。

Lindsey Shema, Goldman Sachs.

Lindsey Shema，高盛。

First off, I mean, we saw some continued deterioration in consumer asset quality and also seems like the macro scenario is still a bit tougher, but that there was some incremental improvement in cost of risk. So maybe just how are the early indicators looking for asset quality? And what makes you feel a little bit more constructive on cost of risk going forward? Or do you see that kind of deterioration coming back?

首先，我的意思是，我們看到消費者資產品質持續惡化，而且宏觀情境似乎仍更為艱難，但風險成本似乎有一些邊際改善。所以也許想請問，資產品質的早期指標目前看起來如何？以及是什麼讓你們對未來的風險成本稍微更具建設性？或者你們是否認為那種惡化會再度出現？

And then for my second question, on the political landscape, it seems like labor reform is on track to be enacted. The vote is tomorrow. What do you think is next on the administration's agenda? And what do you as a bank really need to see to give you greater certainty going forward?

然後我的第二個問題是關於政治局勢：看起來勞動改革正朝著通過立法的方向推進。明天就要投票。你認為政府接下來的施政議程是什麼？而作為一家銀行，你們真正需要看到什麼，才能在未來獲得更高的確定性？

Lindsey, in terms of your first question, what we are seeing is that the speed of the deterioration of the consumer portfolio has been reduced. As you could see in terms of cost of risk, we posted slightly below levels of the one that we posted in the third quarter. In the first quarter, we are seeing kind of, for the moment, neutral news.

Lindsey，關於你的第一個問題，我們看到消費者組合惡化的速度已經放緩。如你在風險成本方面所見，我們的數字略低於第三季所呈現的水準。在第一季，我們目前看到的消息大致偏中性。

I would say that it's kind of relatively stable in terms of the figures that we are seeing at least as of January compared to December. However, going forward, we expect to have maybe more positive news by the end of the first and second quarter of this year. That's why we are forecasting for 2026 a cost of risk of 5.2%. This is slightly below the 5.6% that we posted in the calendar year of '25. In terms of --

我會說，至少就我們看到的數字而言，截至1月相較於12月算是相對穩定。不過，展望未來，我們預期在今年第一季與第二季末可能會有較多正面消息。這也是為什麼我們對2026年的風險成本（cost of risk）預測為5.2%。這略低於我們在2025曆年所公布的5.6%。就……而言--

Maybe Jorge, if I may add to that, this is Juan Parma. We took early action during 2025 by constraining loan origination back from April last year. What we are seeing is that in terms of new vintages and new origination, the performance of the vintages is better than the portfolio as a whole and back to the levels we used to see in 2024.

Jorge，如果我可以補充一下，我是Juan Parma。我們在2025年採取了提前行動，從去年4月起收緊放款承作。我們看到的是，就新批次（new vintages）與新增放款而言，這些批次的表現優於整體投資組合，並回到我們在2024年曾經看到的水準。

So that recomposition of the portfolio with better new origination is what is actually driving the stabilization and positive outlook in terms of cost of credit. Basically, it's what we are seeing in the new originations that we tightened up since around April, May last year.

因此，以較佳的新承作來重新組合投資組合，正是推動信用成本穩定並帶來正向展望的原因。基本上，這就是我們在自去年約4月、5月起收緊後所看到的新承作表現。

And Lindsey, in terms of your second question, I would say that in the last three, four months, the government, I would say that is leading the agenda, managing all the political issues going on, like introducing the labor reform at the end of '25 and that was approved by the Congress in January by deputies in general and in February, deputies in particular, and also expected to have the Senate to approve it.

Lindsey，關於你的第二個問題，我會說在過去三、四個月，政府一直在主導議程，處理各種政治議題，例如在2025年底提出勞動改革，並在1月由眾議院整體表決通過、2月在逐條審議中通過，同時也預期參議院將予以批准。

Also, we expect our tax reform to come at some point in the next month or so. I would say that next Sunday, that is going to be the 1st of March, President Milei is going to open the ordinary session of the Congress and he is going to, in our view, give a speech on the coming reforms or projects to be sent to the Congress. So I think that we have to be clear-eyed for his speech next Sunday in order to have a more, I would say, better landscape of what's going to be on the agenda of the government in 2026.

另外，我們也預期稅制改革會在接下來一個月左右的某個時間點提出。我會說，下週日也就是3月1日，Milei總統將開啟國會常會，並且在我們看來，他會就即將到來的改革或將送交國會的法案發表演說。因此，我認為我們必須以務實、清醒的態度關注下週日他的演說，才能對2026年政府議程上會有哪些事項有更清楚、也更好的全貌。

But I would say, adding to Jorge, that what we have seen after last year, a very positive outcome in terms of the midterm elections is the government using its political capital and its majority in Congress to push on their strategy to keep a tight monetary policy and a tight FX policy, focusing on reducing inflation while maintaining fiscal surplus and solving for the competitiveness of the economy by deregulation.

不過我想補充Jorge的觀點：我們在去年期中選舉取得非常正面的結果之後所看到的是，政府正運用其政治資本以及在國會的多數優勢，推動其策略：維持緊縮的貨幣政策與緊縮的外匯（FX）政策，聚焦於降低通膨，同時維持財政盈餘，並透過去管制（deregulation）來解決經濟競爭力問題。

So that's their strategy. They will try to improve the competitiveness of the economy by reducing the Argentina cost, right, both in fiscal terms with the tax reform, labor costs with the labor reform using their renewed political capital after the midterm elections. The recent approval that needs to be finally validated by Congress this Friday on the labor reform is a demonstration of that.

這就是他們的策略。他們會在期中選舉後運用重新取得的政治資本，透過降低「阿根廷成本」來提升經濟競爭力：在財政面透過稅制改革、在勞動成本面透過勞動改革。本週五需要由國會最終確認的勞動改革近期獲得批准，就是一個例證。

And as Jorge was mentioning, we expect President Milei in his opening speech of the Congress session for this year to outline what is his agenda in terms of pushing reforms using this political capital through the year, and we expect that to continue.

而如同Jorge提到的，我們預期Milei總統會在今年國會會期開議演說中，勾勒他將如何在今年運用這些政治資本推動改革的議程，而我們也預期這樣的方向會持續下去。

There is one comment that, I think, is relevant for the banking industry in the labor reform, by the way, which is that as part of the labor law, there was a relevant article that defined whether if banks or fintech wallets are the ones to pay salaries. And it was a positive outcome for the banking industry because the law confirmed that the only way to pay salaries or pension payments in Argentina is only through bank accounts, not through wallets or digital accounts. So that's a good outcome for the bank and for the industry as a whole.

順帶一提，勞動改革中有一點我認為對銀行業很重要：作為勞動法的一部分，其中有一條重要條文界定了究竟是由銀行或金融科技錢包來支付薪資。結果對銀行業是正面的，因為法律確認在阿根廷，支付薪資或退休金的唯一方式只能透過銀行帳戶，而不能透過錢包或數位帳戶。因此，這對本行以及整體產業而言都是一個好結果。

Yuri Fernandes, J.P. Morgan.

Yuri Fernandes，J.P. Morgan。

Congrats on the profitability recovery in the quarter. I would like to understand a little bit just the mark-to-market on the securities, like the trading gains. Like this line is always volatile, right? And it's hard to predict but if you can help us understand how to better think this line, how to better model and what drove like the -- probably the sovereign bond in Argentina, but I would like to understand also what drove the gains during this quarter. And then I can ask a second quarter regarding deposits.

恭喜本季獲利能力回升。我想更了解一下證券的按市價評價（mark-to-market），例如交易收益。這一項一直都很波動，對吧？而且很難預測，但如果你們能協助我們更好地理解該如何看待這一項、如何建模，以及本季收益是由什麼因素驅動的——可能是阿根廷主權債，但我也想了解本季的收益還有哪些驅動因素。然後我還有第二個問題，關於存款。

I guess I heard well, the 6% real growth. It sounds a little bit low, right? I think expectations for the industry was that deposits would still grow, I don't know, 20%, 25% in real terms. So my question is how to grow loans, right, with such a low potential growth of deposits? If you are seeing any change in reserve requirements. So just trying to understand a little bit like the message on liabilities.

我想我聽得沒錯，是6%的實質成長。聽起來有點低，對吧？我認為市場對產業的預期是存款仍會成長，例如以實質計算成長20%、25%。所以我的問題是，在存款潛在成長這麼低的情況下，要如何擴張放款？你們是否看到法定準備率有任何變化？我只是想更了解一下負債端的訊息。

I will start by your second question. Yes. Basically, I mean, I think I answered before, why we're expecting a 6% real growth in deposits on the fine-tuning of macroeconomic variables and also on slightly narrower positive real interest rate expected for '26. Even though that, we are expecting to grow loans by 20% in real terms. This is slightly below what we grew our loan book in '25.

我先回答你的第二個問題。是的。基本上，我想我之前已經回答過：我們之所以預期存款實質成長為6%，是基於總體變數的微調，以及對2026年略為收斂的正實質利率的預期。即便如此，我們仍預期放款將以實質計算成長20%。這略低於我們在2025年的放款成長。

'25 was a great year, 40% in real term was a great year. And again, we have, as I mentioned before, this securities portfolio that in the case that loans are growing above what we are expecting can be used to finance the gap if deposits are growing at 6% and not growing more than that.

2025年是非常好的一年，實質成長40%是很亮眼的表現。再者，如我先前提到的，我們有一個證券投資組合；若放款成長高於我們的預期，而存款僅成長6%且未高於此水準，該投資組合可用來彌補資金缺口、提供融資。

In terms of your first question, it is not very easy to answer. I would say that because we have a combination of, I would say, 68% of our bonds that are tied to inflation and another 32% which are tied to variable rates. I would say that the best way to model this is what you are expecting for domestic prices or I mean, for inflation or the wholesale rate going forward.

至於你的第一個問題，並不容易回答。我會說，因為我們的債券組合中約68%與通膨連動，另外32%與浮動利率連動。我認為建模的最佳方式，是看你對未來國內物價——也就是通膨——或批發利率（wholesale rate）的預期。

So that is going to be maintained. You are going to see a kind of (inaudible) and steady income on a quarterly basis on our bond portfolio. However, if you are expecting some volatility there, on ups and downs that is going to affect the pace of the bond gains on a quarterly basis.

因此，這樣的狀況會持續。你會看到我們的債券投資組合在每一季呈現某種（聽不清）且相對穩定的收益。不過，如果你預期那裡會有一些波動、上下起伏，這將影響每季債券收益的增速。

Pedro Leduc, Itau BBA.

Pedro Leduc，Itau BBA。

We see NIMs recovering almost halfway here. At the same time, we're seeing still some credit quality pressures. Question to you is when we think about risk-adjusted NIMs for 2026, I know the average for 2025 is a bit weird to look at. But if you could help us understand a bit if the fourth quarter is a good starting point for us to build upon for risk-adjusted NIMs and what the drivers are for us to look at this line in '26?

我們看到淨利差（NIM）幾乎回升到一半左右。同時，我們仍看到一些信用品質壓力。我想問的是，當我們思考2026年的風險調整後淨利差（risk-adjusted NIM）時，我知道2025年的平均值有點不太好解讀。但如果你能協助我們理解：第四季是否是一個適合作為2026年風險調整後淨利差的起點，以及在2026年我們應該關注這一項的哪些驅動因素？

I would say just as a starting point, the fourth quarter is kind of a reasonable measure. Going forward, we're expecting a little bit of pressure on rates, maybe on margins a little bit. So we finished '25 with a net interest margin on the area slightly above 20% and 21.5% approx. We're seeing this maybe in the level of 20% for '26. And as an opposite effect, we are seeing slightly below cost of risk in '26 compared to '25. So as overall, I would say that slight compression on the NIM adjusted by credit quality in '26.

我會說，作為一個起點，第四季算是一個相當合理的衡量基準。展望未來，我們預期利率會有一些壓力，可能也會對利差帶來一些壓力。因此，我們在'25年結束時，該業務的淨利息利差（NIM）略高於20%，約為21.5%。我們看到在'26年可能會落在約20%的水準。而作為相反的效果，我們看到'26年的風險成本會較'25年略低。所以整體而言，我會說在'26年，NIM會有些微壓縮，但會由信用品質的改善來調整/抵銷。

Versus the average of '25, no, but from the starting point.

相較於'25年的平均值，不是，但相較於起點是。

Yes, from the starting point, yes.

是的，從起點來看，是的。

Pedro Offenhenden, Latin Securities.

Pedro Offenhenden，Latin Securities。

I wanted to ask on -- you mentioned additional personnel expenses in the following quarters. Could you help us to frame this remaining impact as how much of the total restructuring costs were already recognized this quarter?

我想問一下——你提到接下來幾季會有額外的人員費用。你能否協助我們界定一下，這一季已認列的重整成本，占總重整成本的多少？

So maybe you can talk, Jorge, about the restructuring costs we booked in '25 and how much of that is still to benefit '26 and we can talk about what to expect going forward. Maybe I can take it both of it. From the ARS82 billion that we booked in '25 concentrated in the fourth quarter, there are still ARS36 billion of that, that will help personnel exits that will benefit '26.

所以也許你可以談談，Jorge，我們在'25年入帳的重整成本，以及其中有多少仍會在'26年帶來效益；然後我們也可以談談未來的預期。也許我兩部分都可以回答。在我們於'25年入帳、且集中在第四季的820億阿根廷披索（ARS82 billion）中，仍有360億阿根廷披索（ARS36 billion）將用於人員離職，並在'26年帶來效益。

In terms of additional restructuring costs, you should expect similar numbers for the following quarters. But you should note that the condition for us to report an expense as a restructuring cost is one that will take out operational expenses on a permanent basis. So the likes of reduction in personnel that won't be replaced. That's what we define by restructuring costs.

就額外的重整成本而言，你應該預期接下來幾季會是類似的數字。但你要注意，我們將費用列為重整成本的條件，是它必須能永久性地降低營運費用。例如不再補回的人員縮減。這就是我們對重整成本的定義。

That's why in the following quarters, you should expect us to continue reporting with the same type of language being consistent to the point that restructuring cost is cost to take us out cost on a permanent basis. And in that sense, reporting or talking about reported and adjusted results and reported and adjusted ROEs, but we expect to continue in the following quarters with this action, which we believe is positive because it will end the year with a lower recurrent cost base for the company.

這也是為什麼在接下來幾季，你應該預期我們會持續用一致的措辭來揭露：重整成本是為了永久性地把成本降下來的成本。在這個意義上，我們會談到申報與調整後的結果，以及申報與調整後的ROE；但我們預期接下來幾季會持續推動這些行動，我們相信這是正面的，因為它將使公司在年底時擁有較低的經常性成本基礎。

And back to the previous point, compensating the margin compression that Jorge was talking about. That's why we are doing as inflation goes down, rates go down, margins compress, we are reacting on the cost side to compensate this effect.

並回到前一點，用來抵銷Jorge所提到的利差壓縮。這就是為什麼當通膨下降、利率下降、利差收窄時，我們會在成本端做出反應，以抵銷這個影響。

Carlos Gomez-Lopez, HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez，HSBC。

First, to confirm what you said earlier, which is that adjusting for the restructuring charges, you think that something like an 8% ROE for the year is realistic. Second, I would like to know if you have any update on your exciting acquisition of Personal Pay? Any update you can give us versus the call that you had two or three weeks ago?

第一，確認一下你先前所說的，也就是在調整重整費用後，你認為全年大約8%的ROE是合理可達的。第二，我想知道你們對於令人振奮的Personal Pay收購案是否有任何更新？相較於你們兩三週前那通電話，你能提供我們任何更新嗎？

And finally, when you look at loan growth, I mean it has been coming down and down and down. And I mean, you are already giving us the expectation that it will be 20%, but actually 20% is an improvement from where we are today, when do you see the trend breaking and starting to see some more activity in the system?

最後，當你看貸款成長時，我的意思是它一直在下降、下降、再下降。而且你們已經給了我們預期會是20%，但其實20%相較於我們今天所處的位置是改善；你們何時會看到趨勢反轉，並開始在系統中看到更多活動？

Thanks, Carlos. On the first question, yes, we think that including all these restructuring charges and all the guidance in terms of growth in both loan deposits et cetera, we are expecting to deliver an adjusted ROE in the area of 8% in '26. I'm going to the third question. I mean, our main business is to lend money. And of course, we would like to lend as much money as we can, of course, considering credit risk and all that.

謝謝你，Carlos。關於第一個問題，是的，我們認為在納入所有這些重整費用，以及在貸款、存款等成長方面的所有指引後，我們預期在'26年可交付約8%的調整後ROE。我來回答第三個問題。我的意思是，我們的主要業務是放款。當然，我們希望在考量信用風險等因素下，盡可能多地放款。

But of course, what we are not seeing for the moment is the economy growing at very high rates. So the guidance that we are giving is like between maintaining share and gaining a little bit of basis points in share.

但當然，目前我們還沒有看到經濟以非常高的速度成長。因此，我們給出的指引大致是在維持市占並小幅提升一些基點的市占。

We are not reducing our share in terms of loans. And you can see in the quarter that we reported that we are growing the shares in both loans and deposits. So the idea is to continue in that path going forward. But of course, we need the macro economy of Argentina to push harder in order to see a high level of loan growth. In terms of Personal Pay --

就貸款而言，我們並沒有降低市占。而且你可以在我們本季的報告中看到，我們在貸款與存款兩方面的市占都在成長。所以想法是未來持續走在這條路徑上。但當然，我們需要阿根廷的總體經濟更強力推動，才能看到高水準的貸款成長。至於Personal Pay--

I can comment on that, Jorge, thank you. Yes. We announced the acquisition of 50% of Personal Pay, which is Telecom's wallet. This was a cash-in transaction. So all our equity investment went into the company to develop the company. This will be built as a bank-as-a-service business where we will, on one hand, work on engaging the around 30 million customers that Telecom have to use the wallet and then do financial intermediation with a bank-as-a-service model.

Jorge，謝謝，我可以補充這部分。是的。我們宣布收購Personal Pay 50%的股權，Personal Pay是Telecom的電子錢包。這是一筆現金投入（cash-in）交易。因此，我們所有的股權投資都投入到公司，用於發展公司。這將被打造為一個「銀行即服務」（bank-as-a-service）的業務：一方面，我們會推動Telecom約3,000萬客戶使用該錢包；另一方面，則透過銀行即服務模式進行金融中介。

As I think have explained when we talked about this with some of you in the specific call we had on Personal Pay about three weeks or four weeks ago, we have the option to do this through Banco Macro or do this through an existing or a new subsidiary of Banco Macro so we are considering those options while we build the technology and the services to connect the wallet with the bank as a service. So more to come on this front, and we will update you accordingly once we know how exactly this bank as a service model will be built.

如同我想我們在三到四週前就Personal Pay與部分各位進行的專題電話會議中所解釋的，我們可以選擇透過Banco Macro來做，或透過Banco Macro既有或新設的子公司來做，因此我們正在評估這些選項，同時建置技術與服務，以把錢包與銀行即服務連接起來。所以這方面後續還會有更多進展；一旦我們確定這個銀行即服務模式將如何具體建構，我們會相應更新各位。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

I wanted to ask regarding the restructration, if you have any target for headcount and for a number of branches by the end of 2026 and which is the impact in ROE because of these restructuration charges?

我想問關於重整，你們是否有到2026年底的人員編制與分行數量目標？以及這些重整費用對ROE的影響是什麼？

I would say that in terms of both headcount and branches, we're expecting a reduction in both similar levels than the one that we saw in '25 just to give you some guidance there. And I would say that approx the impact on ROE in terms of these restructuring charges are approximately 3 percentage points. That is what we are calculating on '26 on the impact on restructuring charges on ROE.

我會說，就人員編制與分行而言，我們預期兩者都會下降，幅度大致與我們在'25年看到的水準相近，先給你一些指引。我也會說，這些重整費用對ROE的影響大約是3個百分點。這是我們對'26年重整費用對ROE影響的估算。

Okay. So just to check, reported ROE will be around 5%, then right?

好的。所以確認一下，申報的ROE大約會是5%，對嗎？

Approximately in the area of 5% and they adjust it in the area of 8%.

大約在5%附近，而調整後大約在8%附近。

Matias Cattaruzzi, Adcap.

Matias Cattaruzzi，Adcap。

I wanted to ask you a question about the recent rise in dollar liquidity in the system. As it improved, how are you thinking about the possibility of gradually expanding USD lending beyond traditional dollar generating clients? Under what conditions would Macro feel comfortable lending dollars to nondollar earners, if at all?

我想問一個關於近期系統中美元流動性上升的問題。在流動性改善之後，你們如何看待逐步把美元放款擴大到傳統的美元收入/美元創造客戶以外的可能性？在什麼條件下，Macro會覺得可以放心把美元貸給非美元收入者（如果會的話）？

So I will answer from the bank's perspective. Then there is the question, which is around the enablement of this, which is a question around regulation. So as I listen to your question, I understand you're well-versed on how the regulation is today. So let me start by that in the benefit of others that may be not that familiar with it in case that's the case. Today, in Argentina, you can only lend dollar from depositors to clients that have their revenue streams in dollars.

所以我會從銀行的角度來回答。接著有一個問題，是關於如何促成這件事的落地，而這其實是關於監管的問題。就我聽起來，你對目前的監管狀況相當熟悉。因此我先從這點開始說明，讓其他可能不那麼熟悉的人也能理解，以防確實有人不熟悉。目前在阿根廷，你只能把存款人的美元借給那些其收入來源為美元的客戶。

So basically, exporters. So that limits your ability to deploy dollar deposits to only those type of customers. With your own dollars, not the dollars from depositors, but the dollars from the bank, you can lend to anyone.

基本上就是出口商。因此，這限制了你將美元存款投放出去的能力，只能提供給這類客戶。若是用你自己的美元——不是存款人的美元，而是銀行自有的美元——你可以借給任何人。

The reality is that if you take the total deposits in the system denominated in dollars, they move from being one-fourth of total deposits measured all in dollars, 25% to now 37%. So there is an advancement of dollar-denominated deposits in the total deposits of the banking system as a whole. With this limitation, eventually, this creates a bottleneck because you cannot deploy those reports. So the government is exploring alternatives to evolve from that situation. If that was the case, and I cannot say when and if this will happen because this depends on a change on regulation, and I cannot speak to that.

實際情況是，如果你看整個系統中以美元計價的存款總額，它們從以美元統一衡量的總存款的四分之一，也就是25%，上升到現在的37%。因此，整體銀行體系的總存款中，美元計價存款的占比正在提升。在這項限制下，最終會形成瓶頸，因為你無法投放那些存款。因此政府正在探索替代方案，以便從這種狀況演進。如果真是如此，我無法說何時、以及是否會發生，因為這取決於監管的變更，而我也無法就此發言。

We are prepared to lend because it will be -- if the regulation changes, then it will be up to each bank to define the appetite to use that space and lend their dollar capacity. We are bullish on that. We believe that we can work with high-quality customers, both on the commercial segment and on the individual segment to deploy that dollar lending capacity. So we believe that if that regulation evolves allowing this to happen, this will turn into something positive for the bank because we are in the bullish side of the market regarding that. But we depend on the regulation to change or to evolve to take advantage of that opportunity.

我們已準備好放款，因為——如果監管改變——那麼就會由各家銀行自行決定是否願意利用這個空間，並運用其美元額度進行放款。我們對此持樂觀態度。我們相信，我們可以與高品質客戶合作，無論是在企業端或個人端，來投放這項美元放款能力。因此我們認為，如果監管演進並允許這件事發生，這將對銀行是正面的，因為我們在這方面對市場持偏多看法。但我們仍取決於監管的改變或演進，才能把握這個機會。

Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America.

Ernesto Gabilondo，美國銀行。

Congrats on your results. Very close to a recurring ROE of 7% in 2025, if excluding the restructuring costs. My first question is a follow-up on the 2026 guidance. Any color on NPLs? Can you confirm you have reached the NPL peaks?

恭喜你們的業績。若排除重整成本，2025年經常性ROE非常接近7%。我的第一個問題是延伸追問2026年的指引。不良貸款（NPL）方面有什麼補充說明嗎？你能否確認你們已經到達NPL的高峰？

And when do you see them trending down in 2026? Any color in terms of fee income growth and also in recurring OpEx growth, so removing the restructuring costs, how do you see recurring OpEx growth? And also, when do you see the ROE returning again to high teens? Can you walk us through over the next years?

以及你們預期在2026年何時會開始下行？另外，手續費收入成長方面，以及經常性營業費用（OpEx）成長方面（也就是扣除重整成本後），你們如何看待經常性OpEx的成長？還有，你們預期ROE何時會回到十幾%的高位？能否帶我們走一遍未來幾年的路徑？

And my second question is on your loan growth expectations. We have seen a lot of investments announced in Argentina. So in your case, which would be the sectors that you are financing or that you are seeking to finance leveraging on these announcements? And especially you have a very strong capital base, so maybe you have the opportunity to finance projects with longer duration when compared to your peers.

我的第二個問題是關於你們對放款成長的預期。我們看到阿根廷宣布了許多投資案。就你們而言，哪些產業是你們正在融資、或希望藉由這些宣布而加大融資的領域？特別是你們資本基礎非常強，因此相較同業，或許有機會承作期限更長的專案融資。

And the last question is in your capital ratio. How do you see your capital allocation this year in terms of buybacks, dividends or potential M&A activity?

最後一個問題是關於你們的資本比率。今年在資本配置上，你們如何看待庫藏股回購、股利或潛在的併購（M&A）活動？

I will try to answer all your questions. In terms of asset quality going forward in the same trend that we are seeing the cost of risk lower in terms of the level that we posted in average in '25. We're expecting also NPLs to go in the area of between mid to low 3s. That is in accordance with the 5.2% cost of risk that we are expecting for '26 compared to the 5.6% that we saw in '25.

我會盡量回答你所有的問題。就未來資產品質而言，延續我們目前看到的趨勢，風險成本相較於我們在2025年平均揭露的水準正在下降。我們也預期NPL會落在約3%中段到3%低段的區間。這與我們對2026年預期的5.2%風險成本一致，相較於2025年看到的5.6%。

Basically, in terms of loan growth that you are on to asking, I would say that, yes, there are some investments that have been announced in Argentina in different sectors, mostly in energy, mining. Some of those investments are going to be done this year. Others are going to be done in '27, '28, et cetera.

基本上，關於你所問的放款成長，我會說，是的，阿根廷在不同產業確實宣布了一些投資，主要在能源、礦業。其中一些投資會在今年進行。其他則會在2027年、2028年等等進行。

Of course, and it is also related to the other question that you asked, we have the best capital base in Argentina. And of course, we are expecting and prepared to finance those projects this year and following years. Of course, it is pretty sure that the bank wants to make the best use of this excess capital.

當然，這也與你問的另一個問題相關：我們在阿根廷擁有最強的資本基礎。而且我們也預期並已準備好在今年及未來幾年為這些專案提供融資。當然，可以相當確定的是，銀行希望把這些超額資本做最有效的運用。

And we have been trying to grow as much as we can in the past -- than we could in the past and going forward also in terms of dividend policy last year and also this year, we have a 100% payout ratio in terms of current dividend, that is this year is what the board is going to propose to the shareholders' meeting. And of course, we have to wait for the Central Bank to see if that dividend is going to be paid in one installment, three, six or whatever.

我們一直在努力把成長做得越多越好——比過去能做到的更多——未來也會如此；至於股利政策，去年以及今年，我們在現金股利方面的配發率（payout ratio）為100%，也就是今年董事會將向股東會提案的內容。當然，我們必須等待央行決定該股利是否會一次、分三次、分六次或其他方式支付。

But again, we are working in order to clean down this excess capital going forward with the combination of organic, inorganic growth, cash dividend and if it is the case, on buyback programs, such as the one that we posted or put in place in the past.

但再次強調，我們正透過有機成長、無機成長、現金股利，以及在適當情況下的回購計畫（例如我們過去曾公告或實施的方案）等組合，來逐步消化這些超額資本。

So it is pretty sure that we are very well prepared and positioned to take advantage of any positive news, both in the macroeconomic scenario and also within the financial sector in '26 and onwards. In terms of when we are going to be seeing mid-teens in terms of ROE, one thing to take into consideration is that maybe in 2028, Argentina would be entering to, again, I would say, nominal reporting because of '25, '26 '27, Argentina in the three years in a row we are having less than 100% inflation, we are going back to noninflation adjusting reporting. So we should be reporting nominal numbers and, of course, ROE since '28 onwards. So I think that's between '28 and '30, I think that is going to be the year where we are going to see macro delivery mid-teens ROEs and maybe something above that.

因此可以相當確定的是，我們已做好充分準備並具備良好定位，以把握2026年及之後無論是總體經濟情境或金融業內部的任何正面消息。至於何時會看到ROE回到十幾%的水準，有一點需要考量：也許在2028年，阿根廷會再次進入——我會說——名目報表（nominal reporting），因為在2025、2026、2027連續三年，阿根廷的通膨都低於100%，我們將回到不做通膨調整的報表。因此我們應該會自2028年起揭露名目數字，當然ROE也是自2028年起。所以我認為在2028到2030年間，將會是我們看到在總體環境帶動下ROE達到十幾%，甚至可能更高的期間。

And I would add to Jorge's comments that by the end of 2027, our restructuring program will enter in full effect in terms of being able to capture the benefits of the restructuring. So the restructuring costs that we talked about will continue mostly to '26, part in '27. So by the end of '27, entering into full effect in '28, we will be able to capture and harvest the full benefits of the restructuring program, okay? If you read into our press release and results announcement, you will see that the ARS82 billion of restructuring costs are related with costs that in '25 were ARS49 billion. So we cannot talk here about future savings of these actions, but you can read into that.

我也補充Jorge的評論：到2027年底，我們的重整計畫在能夠捕捉重整效益方面將會全面生效。因此，我們談到的重整成本將主要延續到2026年，並在2027年有一部分。所以到2027年底、並在2028年全面發揮效益時，我們將能夠捕捉並收割重整計畫的全部效益，好嗎？如果你閱讀我們的新聞稿與業績公告，你會看到820億阿根廷披索（ARS82 billion）的重整成本，與2025年的490億阿根廷披索（ARS49 billion）成本相關。因此我們在此無法談論這些行動未來可帶來的節省，但你可以從中讀到相關資訊。

So if we continue with this, you can also read into how much that full effect of restructuring costs could mean in '28. Coupled with what Jorge mentioned about the stopping if Argentina continues in the inflation reducing trend, moving from real ROEs to nominal ROEs in '28. So by then, I'm pretty confident that we will be able to reach the mid-teen ROEs going forward. Jorge mentioned back to the question on financing projects, longer tenors and so forth. Jorge mentioned about the capital strength of the bank.

因此，如果我們繼續沿著這個方向，你也可以進一步推估到 2028 年重組成本的完整影響可能意味著什麼。再加上 Jorge 提到的，如果阿根廷持續走在通膨下降的趨勢上，到了 2028 年將從實質 ROE 轉向名目 ROE。所以到那時，我相當有信心我們將能在未來達到約中十位數的 ROE。Jorge 也回到關於融資專案、較長天期等問題。Jorge 提到了銀行的資本實力。

I would also add the liquidity strength and funding strength from the bank because after the successful placing of negatiated obligations that we did last month, we have also extended our funding capacity to support such projects for -- in a range of -- for three to four years.

我也想補充銀行的流動性實力與資金來源實力，因為在我們上個月成功完成協商義務（negotiated obligations）的發行之後，我們也延長了資金籌措能力，以支持此類專案——在一個範圍內——可支撐三到四年。

So we expect that. The other reality is that companies in Argentina have been benefiting from the access to capital markets and issuing a substantial amount and a record amount, I would say, of US dollar-denominated debt. But we expect that after that cycle, the private lending market will turn on, particularly if rates in the US at some point go up, we expect this to be an opportunity for that.

所以我們預期如此。另一個現實是，阿根廷的企業一直受惠於資本市場的進入，並發行了相當大量、我會說是創紀錄規模的美元計價債務。但我們預期在那一輪週期之後，民間放款市場將會啟動，特別是如果美國利率在某個時間點上升，我們預期這將成為一個機會。

So we are keeping that liquidity remaining ready to support the energy sector, the mining sector, the infrastructure sector of Argentina that at some point will start to get traction, we believe.

因此，我們會保留這些流動性，隨時準備支持阿根廷的能源產業、礦業、基礎建設產業；我們相信這些領域在某個時間點將開始取得動能。

This is super helpful. Just a follow-up in terms of the NPL. So just to confirm, the NPL already peaked in the fourth quarter and you're expecting, for example, NPL to go to low to mid 3% and cost of risk to 5.2%. But how should we think about the timing throughout 2026? Is this something that will start to go down in the first quarter? Or is this something that will go down more in the second half of this year? So just a little bit of color on that.

這非常有幫助。就不良貸款（NPL）再追問一下。所以確認一下，NPL 已在第四季見頂，而你們預期例如 NPL 會降到約 3% 的低到中段區間，風險成本（cost of risk）到 5.2%。但我們應該如何看待 2026 年全年的時間節奏？這會在第一季就開始下降嗎？還是會在今年下半年下降得更多？想請你們補充一些說明。

Yes. I think that we might see numbers more on the positive in the second half of '26, some stable numbers in the first half of '26.

是的。我認為在 2026 年上半年可能會看到一些較為穩定的數字，而在 2026 年下半年可能會看到更偏正面的數字。

Kaio Prato, UBS.

Kaio Prato，瑞銀（UBS）。

I have a quick on my side, please. Just to follow up on loans. If you are already seeing any pickup in loans sequentially because it has been weak on a quarter-over-quarter basis or if this is expected to accelerate more towards the second half? And second is still on loans. You mentioned about this reduction in overall growth expectations and talked about GDP.

我這邊有個簡短問題，麻煩。先追問貸款。由於貸款在季對季基礎上一直偏弱，你們是否已經看到貸款按季出現回升？還是預期會在下半年加速？第二個問題也與貸款有關。你們提到下調整體成長預期，並談到 GDP。

But is there any segment that you are seeing specifically slow down? Or if this is mostly related to our appetite on consumers? So just some breakdown between both would be good as well.

但是否有任何特定分項你們看到明顯放緩？或者這主要與我們對消費者的承作意願（appetite）有關？因此，如果能就兩者做一些拆解也會很有幫助。

We continue to see more service sectors as I mentioned before, energy and within energy, oil, gas and then you have mining, agribusiness sector. Those are the most active. The ones that are lagging a little bit are, I would say, construction, could be infrastructure for the moment, even though prospects for '26 of infrastructure are positive. Maybe massive consuming sectors are also not having a good performance. We expect these sectors as I commented to be the other leaders or the worst performance in '26.

我們持續看到較多的是服務業，如我先前提到的，還有能源；在能源之內，包括石油、天然氣，然後還有礦業、農業綜合企業（agribusiness）部門。這些是最活躍的。稍微落後一些的，我會說是建築業；目前基礎建設可能也偏弱，儘管 2026 年基礎建設的前景是正面的。也許大量消費相關的產業表現也不佳。如我所評論的，我們預期這些產業在 2026 年要嘛會成為另一批領先者，要嘛會是表現最差的一群。

I would also add that there is a bit of a binary situation in terms of credit quality and risk in an economy which is opening, although deregulation at some point will come and help by reducing the Argentina cost.

我也想補充，在一個正在開放的經濟體中，就信用品質與風險而言，確實存在某種二元化的情況；雖然在某個時間點，去管制將會到來並透過降低阿根廷成本而提供幫助。

It is clear that there will be winning sectors and losing sectors. Probably on the winning side, is all the sectors around mining, energy, agriculture, also services, to some extent, commerce retail if economy starts to pick up. The manufacturing sector is the one that is under the spotlight now, and we are seeing some specific manufacturing sectors like the textile sector, the clothing sector, like the automotive sector suffering because of the opening of the economy. So another lens to look at is not only how much we grow, in average, but be selective given this significant change in the structure of the micro economy by sector in Argentina.

很明顯會有贏家產業與輸家產業。可能在贏家那一邊的是所有與礦業、能源、農業相關的產業，還有服務業；在某種程度上，如果經濟開始回升，商業零售也會受惠。製造業目前是焦點所在，我們看到一些特定製造業別，例如紡織業、成衣業，以及汽車產業，因為經濟開放而承受壓力。因此，另一個觀察角度不只是我們平均能成長多少，而是在阿根廷各產業部門的微觀經濟結構出現重大變化的情況下，要更具選擇性。

Yes. Okay. But in terms of the loan, it's clear. But in terms of the loan growth, it's already improving sequentially? Or should we expect more of this growth towards the second half of the 2026?

是的。好的。那就貸款而言，這點很清楚。但就貸款成長來看，現在已經按季改善了嗎？或者我們應該預期更多的成長會落在 2026 年下半年？

I think well, always the first quarter is the seasonally lowest. So I think that it's going to be in a gradual increase trend towards the end of '26.

我想，嗯，第一季一向是季節性最低的。所以我認為到 2026 年底之前，會呈現逐步上升的趨勢。

(Operator Instructions) There are no more questions at this time. This does conclude the Q&A section. I will now turn it over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for any final remarks.

（接線員指示）目前沒有更多問題。問答環節到此結束。我現在把時間交給 Nicolas Torres 先生做最後結語。

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

感謝各位對 Banco Macro 的關注。我們感謝各位撥冗，並期待再次與各位交流。祝各位有美好的一天。

Banco Macro's fourth-quarter '25 conference call is now closed. You can disconnect now on, and have a wonderful day.

Banco Macro 2025 年第四季電話會議現在結束。各位現在可以掛線，祝各位有美好的一天。