Banco Macro SA (BMA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's 4Q '24 earnings conference call. We would like to inform you that the 4Q '24 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores/. Also, this event is being recorded. (Operator instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，感謝你們的等待。現在，我們歡迎大家參加 Banco Macro 的 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我們謹此通知您，2024年第四季的新聞稿可在 Banco Macro 投資者關係網站 www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores/ 下載。此外，此活動正在錄製中。（操作員指示）

It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolás Torres, IR.

現在我很高興介紹我們的演講者。來自阿根廷的加入我們的還有財務長 Jorge Scarinci 先生和 IR Nicolás Torres 先生。

Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolás Torres. You may begin your conference, sir.

現在，我將會議交給尼可拉斯‧托雷斯先生。先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's fourth-quarter 2024 conference call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC and is available at our website. Fourth-quarter 2024 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Banco Macro 2024 年第四季電話會議。我們今天發表的任何評論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種條件的約束，這些條件在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的 20-F 文件中有所概述，可在我們的網站上查閱。2024 年第四季的新聞稿已於昨天發布，可在我們的網站上查閱。所有數字均以阿根廷比索為單位，並已按照報告期末的計量單位重新表述。

As of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through December 31, 2024.

自 2020 年起，該銀行開始按照阿根廷中央銀行製定的 IFRS IAS 29 報告應用惡性通貨膨脹會計的表現。為了便於比較，已根據《國際會計準則第29號》重述了前幾季的數據，以反映截至2024年12月31日的每個期間通膨調整的累積效應。

I will now briefly comment on the bank's fourth-quarter 2024 financial results. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Banco Macro's net income totaled ARS102.2 billion. This result was 4% or ARS3.5 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2024. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, this result was mainly driven by lower net interest income, higher net fee income, higher net income from financial assets, and liability fair value profit or loss and a lower result from the net monetary position as inflation eased during the quarter.

我現在將簡要評論該銀行 2024 年第四季的財務表現。2024年第四季度，Banco Macro 的淨收入總計1,022億阿根廷比索。這一結果比 2024 年第三季高出 4%，即 35 億阿根廷比索。截至 2024 年第四季度，此業績主要由於本季通膨有所緩解，導致淨利息收入下降、淨費用收入增加、金融資產淨收入增加、負債公允價值損益增加以及淨貨幣部位業績下降。

The accumulated annualized return on average equity and the accumulated annualized return on average assets were 7.5% and 2.4%, respectively. In fiscal year 2024, net income totaled ARS325.1 billion, 74% lower than in fiscal year 2023. Total comprehensive income totaled ARS227.7 billion and was 83% lower than in fiscal year 2023.

累計年化平均股東權益報酬率及累計年化平均資產報酬率分別為7.5%及2.4%。2024財年淨收入總計3,251億阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降74%。總綜合收入為 2,277 億阿根廷比索，比 2023 財年下降 83%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses totaled ARS813.9 billion, 9% or ARS81.9 billion lower than in the third quarter of 2024 due to lower income from interest on government securities. On a yearly basis, this result decreased 72% or ARS2.1 trillion.

2024 年第四季，扣除一般、行政和人事費用前的營業收入總計 8,139 億阿根廷比索，比 2024 年第三季下降 9% 或 819 億阿根廷比索，原因是政府證券利息收入減少。與去年同期相比，這一結果下降了 72%，即 2.1 兆阿根廷比索。

In fiscal year 2024, net operating income before general and administrative and personnel expenses totaled ARS4.6 trillion, 26% lower than in fiscal year 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024, provision for loan losses totaled ARS37.5 billion, 51% or ARS12.7 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2024. On a yearly basis, provision for loan losses increased 5% or ARS2.1 billion.

2024財年，扣除一般及行政開支及人事費用前的淨營業收入總計4.6兆阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降26%。2024 年第四季，貸款損失準備金總額為 375 億阿根廷比索，比 2024 年第三季高出 51%，即 127 億阿根廷比索。與去年同期相比，貸款損失準備金增加了 5%，即 21 億阿根廷比索。

In fiscal year 2024, provision for loan losses totaled ARS109.4 billion and were 9% higher than in fiscal year 2023. In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS532.6 billion, 13% or ARS82.2 billion lower than in the third quarter of 2024 and 33% or ARS132.6 billion higher year on year. This result is due to a 12% decrease in interest income and an 8% decrease in interest expense and a 32% decrease in income from interest from government securities.

2024財年，貸款損失準備金總額為1,094億阿根廷比索，較2023財年高出9%。本季度，淨利息收入總計 5,326 億阿根廷比索，較 2024 年第三季下降 13% 或 822 億阿根廷比索，比去年同期成長 33% 或 1,326 億阿根廷比索。這一結果是由於利息收入減少 12%，利息支出減少 8%，政府證券利息收入減少 32%。

In fiscal year 2024, net interest income totaled ARS1.6 trillion and was 10% lower than in fiscal year 2023. Interest income decreased 34%, while interest expenses decreased 46%. In the fourth quarter of 2024, interest income totaled ARS819.1 billion, 12% or ARS107.3 billion lower than in the third quarter of 2024 and 34% or ARS429.3 billion lower than in the fourth quarter of 2023.

2024財年，淨利息收入總計1.6兆阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降10%。利息收入下降34%，利息支出下降46%。2024 年第四季，利息收入總計 8,191 億阿根廷比索，比 2024 年第三季下降 12% 或 1,073 億阿根廷比索，比 2023 年第四季下降 34% 或 4,293 億阿根廷比索。

In fiscal year 2024, interest income totaled ARS3.5 trillion, 34% lower than in fiscal year 2023. Income from interest on loans and other financing totaled ARS499.9 billion, 14% or ARS62 billion higher compared with the previous quarter, mainly due to a 16% increase in the average volume of private sector loans, which was partially offset by a 102 basis points decrease in the average lending rate.

2024財年，利息收入總計3.5兆阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降34%。貸款利息和其他融資收入總計 4,999 億阿根廷比索，比上一季度增長 14% 或 620 億阿根廷比索，主要由於私營部門貸款平均額增長 16%，但平均貸款利率下降 102 個基點，部分抵消了這一增長。

On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans decreased 39% or ARS326.4 billion. And in fiscal year 2024, income from interest on loans and other financing totaled ARS2.1 trillion, 15% lower than in fiscal year 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024, interest on loans represented 61% of total interest income.

與去年同期相比，貸款利息收入下降了 39%，即 3,264 億阿根廷比索。2024財年，貸款利息和其他融資收入總計2.1兆阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降15%。2024年第四季，貸款利息佔總利息收入的61%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, income from government and private securities decreased 32% or ARS148.3 billion quarter on quarter and increased 35% or ARS81 billion compared with the same period of last year. This result is explained 73% by income from government and private securities at amortized cost and the remaining 27% is explained by income from government securities valued at fair value to profit through other comprehensive income.

2024年第四季，政府和私人證券收入季減32%或1483億阿根廷比索，較去年同期成長35%或810億阿根廷比索。這一結果的 73% 可以透過以攤銷成本計算的政府和私人證券收入來解釋，其餘 27% 可以透過以公允價值計價的政府證券收入透過其他綜合收入獲利來解釋。

In fiscal year 2024, income from government and private securities totaled ARS1.11 trillion, 54% lower than in fiscal year 2023.

2024財年，政府及私人證券收入總計1.11兆阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降54%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, income from repos totaled ARS444 million, 98% or ARS19.6 billion lower than the previous quarter and 100% or ARS182.8 billion lower than a year ago. It is worth noting that as July 22, 2024, the Central Bank decided to terminate repos and replace them with LEFIs, which are now issued by the treasury.

2024 年第四季，回購收入總計 4.44 億阿根廷比索，比上一季下降 98% 或 196 億阿根廷比索，比去年同期下降 100% 或 1828 億阿根廷比索。值得注意的是，自2024年7月22日起，央行決定終止回購，並以財政部發行的LEFI取代。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, FX income was ARS18 billion lower than the previous quarter and 100% or ARS398.4 billion lower than a year ago. In the quarter, the Argentine peso depreciated 6.3% against the US dollar.

2024 年第四季，外匯營收比上一季減少 180 億阿根廷比索，比去年同期減少 100%，即 3,984 億阿根廷比索。本季，阿根廷比索兌美元貶值6.3%。

In fiscal year 2024, FX income totaled ARS163.2 billion, 91% lower than the result posted in fiscal year 2023, while the peso depreciated 27.7% in fiscal year 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2024, interest expense totaled ARS286.5 billion, decreasing 8% or ARS25.1 billion compared to the previous quarter and 66% or ARS561.9 billion lower compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

2024財年，外匯收入總計1,632億阿根廷比索，比2023財年下降91%，而比索在2024財年貶值了27.7%。2024 年第四季，利息支出總計 2,865 億阿根廷比索，較上一季下降 8% 或 251 億阿根廷比索，較 2023 年第四季下降 66% 或 5,619 億阿根廷比索。

Within interest expenses, interest on deposits decreased 9% or ARS26.2 billion quarter on quarter due to a 208 basis points decrease in the average rate paid on deposits, while the average volume of deposits from the private sector increased 1%. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits decreased 67% or ARS550.9 billion. And in fiscal year 2024, interest expense totaled ARS1.8 trillion, which was 47% lower than in fiscal year 2023.

在利息支出中，存款利息較上季下降 9% 或 262 億阿根廷比索，原因是存款平均利率下降 208 個基點，而私部門平均存款量增加 1%。與去年同期相比，存款利息下降了 67%，即 5,509 億阿根廷比索。2024財年，利息支出總計1.8兆阿根廷比索，較2023財年下降47%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the bank's net interest margin, including FX, was 26.1%, lower than the 26.8% posted in the third quarter of 2024 and lower than 41.7% posted in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Banco Macro's net fee income totaled ARS139.9 billion, 6% or ARS7.6 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2024 and was 11% or ARS13.9 billion higher than the same period of last year.

2024 年第四季，該銀行包括外匯在內的淨利差為 26.1%，低於 2024 年第三季的 26.8%，也低於 2023 年第四季的 41.7%。2024 年第四季，Banco Macro 的淨費用收入總計 1,399 億阿根廷比索，比 2024 年第三季成長 6% 或 76 億阿根廷比索，比去年同期成長 11% 或 139 億阿根廷比索。

In fiscal year 2024, net fee income totaled ARS485.9 billion, 1% higher than fiscal year 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit or loss totaled ARS134.9 billion, increasing 21% or ARS23 billion compared to the third quarter of 2024. This result is mainly due to profit from investment in derivative financial instruments.

2024財年，淨費用收入總計4,859億阿根廷比索，較2023財年高出1%。2024 年第四季，以公允價值計量且其變動計入損益的金融資產和負債的淨收入總計 1,349 億阿根廷比索，較 2024 年第三季度增長 21%，即 230 億阿根廷比索。該業績主要源自於衍生性金融工具投資利潤。

On a yearly basis, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit or loss decreased 93% or ARS1.8 trillion. In fiscal year 2024, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit or loss totaled ARS2.2 trillion, 5% higher than in the fiscal year 2023.

與去年同期相比，以公允價值計量且其變動計入損益的金融資產和負債的淨收入下降了 93%，即 1.8 兆阿根廷比索。2024財年，以公允價值計量且其變動計入損益的金融資產負債的淨收入總計2.2兆阿根廷披索，比2023財年成長5%。

In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS48.8 billion, ARS153 million higher than in the third quarter of 2024. On a yearly basis, other operating income decreased 11% or ARS6 billion. In fiscal year 2024, other operating income totaled ARS214 billion, 35% higher than in fiscal year 2023.

本季其他營業收入總計 488 億阿根廷比索，比 2024 年第三季高出 1.53 億阿根廷比索。與去年同期相比，其他營業收入下降 11% 或 60 億阿根廷比索。2024財年，其他營業收入總計2,140億阿根廷比索，較2023財年成長35%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Banco Macro's administrative expenses plus employee benefits totaled ARS261.8 billion, 4% or ARS10.4 billion lower than the previous quarter due to lower employee benefits, which decreased 2% and lower administrative expenses, which decreased 8%.

2024 年第四季，Banco Macro 的管理費用加上員工福利總計 2,618 億阿根廷比索，比上一季下降 4% 或 104 億阿根廷比索，原因是員工福利減少 2% 且管理費用減少 8%。

On a yearly basis, administrative expenses plus employee benefits decreased 21% or ARS70.2 billion. In fiscal year 2024, administrative expenses plus employee benefits increased 11% compared to fiscal year 2023. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the efficiency ratio reached 39.4%, deteriorating from the 36.3% posted in the third quarter of 2024 and the 13.6% posted one year ago.

與去年同期相比，管理費用和員工福利減少了 21%，即 702 億阿根廷比索。2024財年，管理費用加上員工福利與2023財年相比增加了11％。截至 2024 年第四季度，效率比率達到 39.4%，低於 2024 年第三季的 36.3% 和一年前 13.6%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, expenses decreased 2% while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income decreased 9% compared to the third quarter of 2024.

2024 年第四季度，支出下降 2%，淨利息收入加上淨費用收入加上其他營業收入與 2024 年第三季相比下降 9%。

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the results from the net monetary position totaled a ARS221 billion loss, ARS85.6 billion lower than the loss posted in the third quarter of 2024 and 81% or ARS924 billion lower than the loss posted one year ago.

2024 年第四季，淨貨幣部位結果共虧損 2,210 億阿根廷披索，比 2024 年第三季的虧損減少 856 億阿根廷披索，比一年前虧損減少 81%，即 9,240 億阿根廷披索。

Lower inflation was observed during the quarter, 410 basis points below the third quarter of 2024. Inflation was down from 12.1% in the third quarter to 8% in the current quarter. In fiscal year 2024, the result from the net monetary position totaled ARS2.4 trillion loss, 17% lower than the one posted in fiscal year 2023.

本季通膨率較低，比 2024 年第三季低 410 個基點。通貨膨脹率從第三季的12.1%下降到本季的8%。2024財年，淨貨幣部位虧損總計2.4兆阿根廷披索，較2023財年下降17%。

Inflation in 2024 reached 117.8% compared to the 211.4% registered in 2023. In the fourth quarter of 2024, given Macro's effective tax rate was 26.6% lower than the registered in the fourth quarter of 2023. In fiscal year 2024, the effective income tax rate was 9.2% given the loss posted in the second quarter of 2024 and was lower than the 32.7% registered in fiscal year 2023. Further information is provided in Note 24 to our financial statements.

2024 年通貨膨脹率達 117.8%，而 2023 年通貨膨脹率則為 211.4%。2024年第四季，Macro的有效稅率比2023年第四季低26.6%。2024財年，考慮2024年第二季的虧損，有效所得稅率為9.2%，低於2023財年的32.7%。我們的財務報表註 24 中提供了更多資訊。

In terms of loan growth, the bank's total financial reached ARS5.8 trillion, increasing 18% or ARS884.1 billion quarter on quarter and 45% or ARS1.8 trillion higher year on year. Within commercial loans, documents, and others stand out with a 49% or ARS336.3 billion increase and a 15% or ARS137.6 billion increase, respectively.

在貸款成長方面，該行金融總額達5.8兆阿根廷比索，較上季成長18%或8,841億阿根廷比索，較去年同期成長45%或1.8兆阿根廷比索。在商業貸款中，文件和其他貸款表現突出，分別增加 49% 或 3,363 億阿根廷比索和 15% 或 1,376 億阿根廷比索。

Overdraft decreased 26% or ARS192.5 billion. Within consumer lending, almost all product lines increased during the fourth quarter of 2024. Personal loans and credit card loans stand out with a 36% or ARS303.8 billion and 14% or ARS169.7 billion increase, respectively.

透支額減少 26%，即 1,925 億阿根廷比索。在消費貸款領域，2024 年第四季幾乎所有產品線均有所成長。個人貸款和信用卡貸款表現突出，分別成長 36% 或 3,038 億阿根廷比索和 14% 或 1,697 億阿根廷比索。

In fiscal year 2024, documents, others, personal loans, and credit card loans stand out with a 39%, 52%, 122%, and 31% increase, respectively. In the fourth quarter of 2024, peso financing increased 14% or ARS577.7 billion, while US dollar financing increased 29% or $246 million.

2024財年，文件、其他、個人貸款及信用卡貸款表現突出，分別成長39%、52%、122%及31%。2024年第四季，比索融資成長14%或5,777億阿根廷比索，美元融資成長29%或2.46億美元。

It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of December 2024 reached 8.3%. On the funding side, total deposits decreased 3% or ARS299.3 billion quarter on quarter, totaling ARS8.4 trillion and increased 15% or ARS1.1 trillion year on year.

值得一提的是，截至 2024 年 12 月，Banco Macro 在私部門貸款的市佔率已達 8.3%。融資方面，總存款較上季下降 3% 或 2,993 億阿根廷比索，總額為 8.4 兆阿根廷比索，年增 15% 或 1.1 兆阿根廷比索。

Private sector deposits increased 2% or ARS147 billion quarter on quarter, while public sector deposits decreased 40% or ARS433.3 billion quarter on quarter. The increase in private sector deposits was led by time deposits, which increased 6% or ARS122.3 billion, while demand deposits increased 2% or ARS97.8 billion quarter on quarter.

私部門存款較上季增加 2% 或 1,470 億阿根廷比索，而公共部門存款則較上季減少 40% 或 4,333 億阿根廷比索。私部門存款的成長主要由定期存款帶動，較上季成長 6% 或 1,223 億阿根廷比索，而活期存款則成長 2% 或 978 億阿根廷比索。

Within private sector deposits, peso deposits increased 2% or ARS106 billion, while US dollar deposits decreased 18% or $587 million. As of December 2024, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 65% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits as of December 2024 totaled 7%.

在私部門存款中，比索存款增加 2% 或 1,060 億阿根廷比索，而美元存款減少 18% 或 5.87 億美元。截至 2024 年 12 月，Banco Macro 的交易帳戶約佔總存款的 65%。截至 2024 年 12 月，Banco Macro 在私部門存款的市佔率總計為 7%。

In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's nonperforming total financial ratio reached 1.28%. The coverage ratio measured as total allowance and expected credit losses over nonperforming loans under Central Bank rules reached 158.81%. Consumer portfolio nonperforming loans deteriorated 4 basis points, up to 1.44% from 1.4% in the previous quarter, while commercial portfolio nonperforming loans deteriorated 21 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2024, up to 0.88% from 0.77% in the previous quarter.

資產品質方面，Banco Macro銀行不良資產總額比率達1.28%。根據央行規定，以總撥備和預期信用損失對不良貸款的覆蓋率計算，覆蓋率達158.81%。2024年第四季，消費組合不良貸款惡化4個基點，從上一季的1.4%上升至1.44%，而商業組合不良貸款惡化21個基點，從上一季的0.77%上升至0.88%。

In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS2.8 trillion, which represented a capital adequacy ratio of 32.4% and a Tier 1 ratio of 31.6%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposits ratio reached 79%.

資本方面，阿根廷宏觀銀行擁有2.8兆阿根廷比索的超額資本，資本充足率為32.4%，一級資本充足率為31.6%。該銀行的目標是充分利用這些過剩資本。該銀行的流動性仍然充足。流動資產佔總存款比率達79%。

Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position. Asset quality remained under control and closely monitored, and we keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards, and we keep a well optimized deposit base.

整體而言，我們又取得了一個正面的季度業績。我們的財務狀況持續保持穩健。資產品質繼續受到控制和密切監控，我們繼續努力提高效率標準，並保持優化的存款基礎。

At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.

現在，我們想回答您可能提出的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ernesto Gabilondo, Bank of America.

（操作員指示）美國銀行 Ernesto Gabilondo。

My first question will be on macro expectations. So just wondering what are you seeing in terms of interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, FX for this year?

我的第一個問題是關於宏觀預期。所以只是想知道今年的利率、通貨膨脹、 GDP 成長、外匯方面您看到了什麼？

My second question will be on your ROE expectations for this year. We understand there was a challenging 2024, especially for you in the second quarter. So how do you see the ROE recovering in 2025? And can you elaborate on the drivers for earnings growth this year? And when should we expect the ROE to return again to 20% levels?

我的第二個問題是關於您對今年的 ROE 預期。我們知道 2024 年充滿挑戰，尤其是第二季。那麼您認為 2025 年 ROE 將如何復甦？您能詳細說明一下今年獲利成長的驅動因素嗎？那麼我們什麼時候可以預期 ROE 會再次回到 20% 的水平呢？

My last question is on asset quality. So we saw modest NPL deterioration, but sequentially higher provision charges. So I just want to double check if this is explained because you are building provisions based on expected losses. And how should we think about the cost of risk in 2025? And for that, what will be your loan growth assumption? Thank you.

我的最後一個問題是關於資產品質的。因此，我們看到不良貸款略有惡化，但撥備費用卻持續上升。所以我只是想再檢查一下這是否得到了解釋，因為您正在根據預期損失制定準備金。我們該如何看待2025年的風險成本？對此，您的貸款成長假設是什麼？謝謝。

Ernesto, good morning. How are you? This is Jorge Scarinci. Thanks for your questions. Well, first one, in terms of macroeconomic expectations, according to the latest economic data released by the government, the decline in -- of GDP in 2024 was close to 2% and the consensus for GDP growth in real rates for 2025 is 5.5%.

埃內斯托，早安。你好嗎？這是 Jorge Scarinci。感謝您的提問。首先，就宏觀經濟預期而言，根據政府發布的最新經濟數據，2024 年 GDP 下降接近 2%，而 2025 年 GDP 實際成長率的共識是 5.5%。

Inflation is expected to be in the area of 25% for 2025, coming down a lot from the 118% that we got in 2024. According to the FX, the consensus for the market is expecting an FX of $1,250, that's the official one for the end of the year. And those are basically the most important macro estimates that we have right now. Sorry, I can add also in terms of fiscal accounts, the consensus is a primary fiscal surplus of 0.7% and a financial surplus that should be very close to 0, 0.1%.

預計 2025 年通貨膨脹率將在 25% 左右，較 2024 年的 118% 大幅下降。據外匯局稱，市場普遍預期美元匯率將達到 1,250 美元，這是年底的官方匯率。這些基本上就是我們目前所掌握的最重要的宏觀估計。抱歉，我還可以補充一下，就財政帳而言，大家一致認為初級財政盈餘為 0.7%，財政盈餘應該非常接近 0、0.1%。

In terms of ROE expectations, yes, I agree with you that 2024 was not a good year. Basically, the second quarter was a poor one basically in relation to the performance of the bond portfolio. That's why we are forecasting that 2025 is going to be much better. We are forecasting an ROE range for 2025 that goes from 12% to 15%. And this is going to be fueled by increase in lending to the private sector.

就 ROE 預期而言，是的，我同意你的觀點，2024 年不是一個好年。基本上，就債券投資組合的表現而言，第二季表現不佳。這就是我們預測 2025 年會更好的原因。我們預測 2025 年的 ROE 範圍將在 12% 至 15% 之間。而私部門貸款的增加將進一步推動這項進程。

I would say that our estimate for loan growth in real rates for 2025 are 60%. And this is a consequence of what we are seeing that consumer lending is growing faster than what we had expected. And therefore, those type of loans where we can get the higher rates. So ROE should be based on this loan growth and should be ranging 12% to 15% in 2025.

我想說，我們估計 2025 年實際貸款成長率為 60%。這是我們觀察到的消費貸款成長速度超出預期的結果。因此，我們可以獲得此類貸款的更高利率。因此，ROE 應基於貸款成長，到 2025 年應在 12% 至 15% 之間。

Honestly, when we come back to levels close to 20%, I would say that if economic conditions continue to be the ones that we are going to have in 2025, if we can extrapolate them to 2026, 2027, I think that by the end of 2026, we are going to be very close to the 20% ROE that you were mentioning, Ernesto.

老實說，當我們回到接近 20% 的水平時，我想說，如果經濟狀況繼續保持我們在 2025 年的狀態，如果我們可以將其推斷到 2026 年、2027 年，我認為到 2026 年底，我們將非常接近您提到的 20% 的 ROE，Ernesto。

According to NPL deterioration, I mean, the 1.15% of NPL ratio that we posted in the third quarter was extremely good. But of course, this was a consequence of a small or short level of loan growth. In fourth quarter, we saw basically -- if we do not consider overdraft, basically, the overdraft is where we allocate part of the excess liquidity.

從不良貸款惡化情況來看，我們第三季公佈的不良貸款率為1.15%，這已經非常好了。但當然，這是貸款成長幅度較小或較短的結果。在第四季度，我們基本上看到——如果我們不考慮透支，基本上，透支就是我們分配部分過剩流動性的地方。

So if we do not include that, loan growth in the fourth quarter was 25% up quarter on quarter and 56% up year on year in real terms. So as a consequence of this increase in lending, both increase in NPLs and also the increase in cost of risk.

因此，如果我們不計算此因素，第四季的貸款成長將比上一季成長 25%，比去年同期成長 56%。因此，貸款增加的結果是，不良貸款增加，風險成本也增加。

I think that in previous calls also in meeting with the investors, I have been saying that because of the increase in lending, we could be seeing some deterioration in NPLs and some increase in cost of risk. I would say that cost of risk in 2025 could be above 2%, could be reaching 2.5%. So that is what we are seeing for 2025 in terms of cost of risk and NPLs. So I don't know if I answered all your questions.

我認為，在之前與投資者的電話會議中，我一直在說，由於貸款增加，我們可能會看到不良貸款惡化，風險成本增加。我認為 2025 年的風險成本可能會超過 2%，甚至可能達到 2.5%。這就是我們在風險成本和不良貸款方面對 2025 年的預測。所以我不知道我是否回答了你的所有問題。

Yes. No, super helpful. Just in terms of loan growth, I just want to double check, you mentioned you're expecting a 60% growth.

是的。不，非常有幫助。就貸款成長而言，我只想再確認一下，您提到您預計將成長 60%。

Yes, 60% in real terms growth for loan growth in 2025.

是的，2025 年貸款實際成長率將達到 60%。

Okay. Perfect. And then in terms of doing the math on getting to an ROE of 12%, 15% for '25, that implies approximately a 100% net income growth for 2025. And as you mentioned, it will be driven by loan growth and then starting to see that into financial results and also likely because of lower monetary losses under such a low inflation level. Is that number correct to think about such a high earnings growth this year?

好的。完美的。然後，計算一下，如果 ROE 達到 12%，即 25 年達到 15%，那麼意味著 2025 年的淨收入將成長約 100%。正如您所說，它將受到貸款成長的推動，然後開始體現在財務表現中，也可能是因為在如此低的通膨水平下貨幣損失較低。這個數字是否正確，足以說明今年的獲利成長如此之高？

Basically, we are targeting those levels. Again, the range is between 12% and 15%. And the drivers are the one that you mentioned before, loan growth, some fee growth, controlling expenses, lower inflation losses and the maintenance of the margins along 2025.

基本上，我們的目標是這些水平。再次，範圍在 12% 到 15% 之間。這些驅動因素就是您之前提到的，貸款成長、一些費用成長、控制開支、降低通膨損失以及維持 2025 年的利潤率。

And our next question comes from [Pedro Fernando] with (inaudible) Securities.

下一個問題來自（聽不清楚）證券部的 [Pedro Fernando]。

I have three questions regarding securities. How do you expect the weight of securities to evolve in 2025? And given the expected 60% growth in your loan book this year, will this growth will be primarily funded by the unwinding of securities or deposit growth? And finally, if you have any projections of how the loan-to-asset and security to asset ratio could look this year?

我有三個關於證券的問題。您預計 2025 年證券權重將如何演變？鑑於今年您的貸款預計將成長 60%，這種成長將主要由證券平倉還是存款成長提供資金？最後，您對今年的貸款與資產比率和擔保與資產比率有何預測？

Well, the securities portfolio is approximately 27% of total assets. We think that in 2025 by December of this year, we are going to see that ratio decreasing to levels maybe in the area of 20% or slightly below 20%. I mean, ideally, the funding for loan growth is going to come basically from deposit growth in pesos that we are expecting them to grow in the area of 35% in real terms.

嗯，證券投資組合約佔總資產的27％。我們認為，到 2025 年（即今年 12 月），我們將看到該比例下降到 20% 左右或略低於 20% 的水平。我的意思是，理想情況下，貸款成長的資金基本上來自比索的存款成長，我們預計實際成長將在 35% 左右。

And of course, we are in a loan-to-deposit ratio below 100%. And part of that also is going to be financed by the reduction in securities. So I would say that 80%, which is going to come from deposits, 20% of the funding of loan growth is going to come from the reduction of securities portfolio.

當然，我們的貸存比低於 100%。其中一部分也將透過減少證券來融資。所以我想說，80%的貸款成長資金將來自存款，20%的貸款成長資金將來自證券投資組合的減少。

Brian Flores, Citibank.

花旗銀行的布萊恩‧弗洛雷斯。

I just wanted to make two questions. The first one is on capital consumption because we saw the data from the system. The system is already consuming between 200 and 300 bps per month. And it's very interesting to see that your numbers actually increased marginally, but they increased quarter over quarter. So if you could expand a bit on what is driving this and what we could expect?

我只是想問兩個問題。第一個是關於資本消耗的，因為我們看到了來自系統的數據。該系統每月的消耗量已達到 200 至 300 bps。非常有趣的是，你的數字實際上略有增加，但環比有所增加。那麼，您能否稍微解釋一下推動這一現象的原因以及我們可以期待什麼？

Jorge, you were mentioning expectations of growing 60% year over year. This would naturally consume and bring risk-weighted assets into the denominator. So I just wanted to double check here if the capital consumption that we should see is in line with what we're seeing for the system, maybe faster, maybe slower. But any color you could give us on that? And then I'll ask my second question later.

豪爾赫，您提到了預計將年增 60%。這自然會消耗風險加權資產並將其帶入分母。所以我只是想在這裡再檢查一下我們應該看到的資本消耗是否與我們看到的系統消耗一致，可能更快，也可能更慢。但您能給我們一些詳細資訊嗎？然後我稍後會問第二個問題。

Brian, no, you're right. When you look at the table, the total capital requirement has increased 12% quarter on quarter and 130% year over year. I think that basically, you have some increase in part of the equity. It is very explained in the table there. But we are forecasting that the excess of capital of almost ARS2.8 billion that we have in the fourth quarter, of course, due to the high level of loan growth that we are forecasting is going to go down.

布萊恩，不，你是對的。從表格中可以看出，總資本需求較上季成長了 12%，較去年同期成長了 130%。我認為基本上，你的部分股權有所增加。表格中對此進行了詳細的解釋。但我們預測，第四季度我們將擁有的近 28 億阿根廷比索的資本過剩，當然，由於我們預測的貸款成長水平較高，這一數字將會下降。

We understand that the 31.6% Tier 1 ratio that we posted at the end of December is going to come down. Also, if you take into consideration the $300 billion that we are paying in -- $300 million, sorry, that we are going to pay in cash dividends in May of this year. So we are forecasting that the Tier 1 ratio by the end of the year should be in the area of 25%, 26% approx.

我們了解到，12 月底公佈的 31.6% 一級資本比率將會下降。另外，如果考慮到我們將支付的 3000 億美元——抱歉，是 3 億美元，我們將在今年 5 月支付現金股息。因此，我們預測今年年底的一級資本充足率應在 25% 至 26% 左右。

But yes, it is -- what you mentioned is that there's capital consumption and more 2025 that we are expecting for the system also to grow fast in loans. So it is very important to know that we have the best capitalized balance in the Argentine banking sector. So we are much better prepared to continue lending and growing in lending compared to our peers.

但是的，正如您所提到的那樣，我們預計到 2025 年，該系統的貸款也將快速成長。因此，了解我們擁有阿根廷銀行業最佳的資本餘額非常重要。因此，與同行相比，我們更有準備繼續提供貸款並增加貸款。

Perfect. Super clear. And then maybe a second question, if I may. You elaborated a bit on deposits. You mentioned expectation of 30% real growth in 2025.

完美的。超級清晰。如果可以的話，我再問第二個問題。您對存款做了詳細說明。您提到預計2025年實際成長率為30%。

So I just wanted to expand a bit on that. Is there any particular strategy that you're pursuing to gain share or to compete? Because I know probably -- I know as you're mentioning, the first part of the allocation is mainly driven by the excess capital that you have.

所以我只是想稍微擴展一下這一點。您是否正在採取什麼特定策略來獲取市場佔有率或參與競爭？因為我可能知道——正如您所提到的，分配的第一部分主要由您擁有的過剩資本驅動。

But at some point, as we go back into credit and as people are saying, right, banks becoming banks again, the organic sources of funds become more and more relevant. So I just wanted to check because I think every bank is going to be competing very strongly for deposits. So I just wanted to see how you're thinking about the strategy to compete on this going forward.

但在某個時候，當我們重新回到信貸領域，正如人們所說的那樣，銀行再次成為銀行，有機資金來源變得越來越重要。所以我只是想檢查一下，因為我認為每家銀行都會激烈地競爭存款。所以我只是想看看您如何考慮未來的競爭策略。

Well, in terms of -- I mean, deposits, there's going to be competition. I believe that there should be some marginal increase in maybe in deposit rate time deposit rates. But when you look at the numbers in the fourth quarter, we grew 11% year on year our peso deposits and 24% our dollar-denominated deposits. We think that 2025, the increase will continue.

嗯，就存款而言，將會有競爭。我認為存款利率和定期存款利率應該會有一些小幅上漲。但當你查看第四季度的數據時，我們的比索存款年增了 11%，美元存款年增了 24%。我們認為到2025年，這種成長將會持續。

I mean the -- sorry, the fiscal side or the government is going to demand less from the private sector. And therefore, we believe that the private sector is going to be increasing their deposits. The monetary base is going to continue increasing. So basically, those will be the drivers. But I agree that some competitions could create additional some pressure -- upward pressure on time deposits interest rates.

我的意思是──抱歉，財政方面或政府對私部門的要求將會減少。因此，我們相信私營部門將會增加存款。貨幣基礎將持續增加。所以基本上，這些就是驅動因素。但我同意，一些競爭可能會產生額外的壓力——定期存款利率的上行壓力。

No, that is super helpful. And if I just make a final comment on deposits. Do you expect more regulatory changes as the one we saw last week as to now use at some point, maybe finally deposits in dollars on the asset side of the balance sheet?

不，這非常有幫助。我對存款做最後的評論。您是否預計會出現更多監管變化，就像我們上週看到的那樣，現在在某個時候使用，也許最終在資產負債表的資產方以美元存款？

I think that the Central Bank is trying to work on different regulations and trying to maintain the efficiency and the solvency on the system. As far as we know, there should not be important regulation changes at least in the first four months of 2025. Honestly, we are not informed yet. Going forward, I cannot assure, but nothing in the -- anything in the pipeline.

我認為中央銀行正在嘗試制定不同的法規，並試圖維持系統的效率和償付能力。據我們所知，至少在 2025 年的前四個月不會出現重大的監管變化。說實話，我們還沒有得到消息。展望未來，我無法保證，但目前沒有任何進展。

Carlos Gomez-Lopez, HSBC.

卡洛斯·戈麥斯-洛佩茲，匯豐銀行。

Thank you for the update. First, can you tell us anything about any upcoming management changes at the bank or whether you have any news there? Maybe you mentioned it earlier, but I didn't catch it.

感謝您的更新。首先，您能否告訴我們有關銀行即將發生的管理變更或您是否有任何新聞？也許你之前有提到過，但我沒聽懂。

Second, on the deposits, if we see this correctly, there was actually a decline in dollar deposits between the third and the fourth quarter. And to go back to the question, when do you think that deposits start growing because private sector deposits only grew 2% quarter on quarter. Do you need higher interest rates for that to happen? And finally, to confirm, the dividend that you are paying is $300 million?

第二，關於存款，如果我們正確看待的話，第三季和第四季之間的美元存款實際上有所下降。回到這個問題，您認為存款何時開始成長，因為私部門存款較上季僅成長了 2%。是否需要更高的利率才能實現這一目標？最後，確認一下，您支付的股利是 3 億美元嗎？

Yes, there's going to be some news on management, I would say, maybe in the short future, basically in a new CEO, honestly, I cannot make additional comments, but there will be some announcements in the short run in relation to our CEO. That is the only news related to management changes that we are expecting.

是的，我想說，也許在不久的將來，將會有一些關於管理的消息，基本上是一位新首席執行官，老實說，我無法發表其他評論，但短期內將會有一些關於我們首席執行官的公告。這是我們期待的唯一與管理層變動相關的消息。

Second question in terms of deposits, yes, you're right, there was some decline in dollar-denominated deposits between the third and fourth quarter. Remember that on the third quarter, there was the full impact of the tax amnesty, that impacted in the system also in the bank.

第二個問題是關於存款的，是的，您說得對，第三季和第四季之間美元存款有所下降。請記住，第三季稅收減免政策產生了全面影響，不僅影響了銀行系統，也影響了銀行。

Of course, in the fourth quarter, we saw some decline in dollar-denominated deposits. Some investors were moving their deposits to maybe corporate bonds or some other type of investments in dollars that are not time deposits or saving accounts in dollars.

當然，在第四季度，我們看到美元存款下降。一些投資者將他們的存款轉移到公司債或其他類型的美元投資，而不是定期存款或美元儲蓄帳戶。

Going forward, we think that in relation to this regulation of the Central Bank, there could be some, again, upward trend in terms of interest rates, not only in dollars, but could be also impacting in pesos. And those would be, I would say, the drivers that could be making deposits growing to the level that we mentioned in 2025.

展望未來，我們認為，與央行的這項監管相關，利率可能再次出現上升趨勢，不僅是美元，而且可能對比索產生影響。我想說，這些因素可能會使存款成長到我們提到的 2025 年水準。

And in relation to your third question, yeah, the dividend is going to be below $300 million if you take the unofficial FX rate of $1,200. So it should be in the area of $240 million.

關於您的第三個問題，是的，如果採用 1,200 美元的非官方外匯匯率，股息將低於 3 億美元。所以應該在 2.4 億美元左右。

Okay. And so on rates, so what do you -- where do you expect the policy rate to be by the end of the year?

好的。等等利率，那麼您預計今年底的政策利率會是多少？

The policy in interest rates in the deposits, you mean, Carlos?

卡洛斯，您指的是存款利率政策嗎？

No, the interest rate by the Central Bank, the reference rate.

不是，這個利率是央行的參考利率。

No. I mean, the consensus is showing some increase by the end of the year of 3 or 4 percentage points in the peso monetary interest rate by the end of the year.

不。我的意思是，大家普遍認為，到今年年底比索的貨幣利率將上升 3 或 4 個百分點。

Okay. So an increase of 3% to 4%.

好的。因此成長了3%至4%。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it over to Mr. Nicolás Torres for final considerations.

謝謝。目前沒有其他問題。問答環節到此結束。現在我想把這個發言權交給尼古拉·托雷斯先生，讓他做最後的審議。

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

感謝大家對 Banco Macro 的關注。我們感謝您的時間並期待再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家參加今天的演講。現在您可以斷開線路，享受美好的一天。