Banco Macro SA (BMA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's 1Q 203 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that 1Q 23 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro at www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. Also, this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，女士們先生們，感謝您的等待。此時此刻，我們歡迎大家參加 Banco Macro 的 203 年第一季度收益電話會議。我們謹通知您，23 年第一季度新聞稿可在 Banco Macro 投資者關係網站 www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores 下載。此外，該事件正在被記錄。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR.

現在我很高興向大家介紹來自阿根廷的演講嘉賓：首席執行官古斯塔沃·曼里克斯 (Gustavo Manriquez) 先生；首席財務官 Jorge Scarinci 先生；和 Nicolas Torres 先生，IR。

Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference.

現在我將會議交給尼古拉·托雷斯先生。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Anthony. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. First quarter 2023 press release was distributed yesterday, and it's available at our website. All figures are in Argentinian pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period.

謝謝你，安東尼。早上好，歡迎參加 Banco Macro 2023 年第一季度電話會議。我們今天可能發表的任何評論都可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種條件的約束，這些內容在我們向 SEC 提交的 20-F 中進行了概述，並且可以在我們的網站上找到。 2023 年第一季度新聞稿已於昨天發布，可在我們的網站上獲取。所有數字均以阿根廷比索為單位，並已按照報告期末現行計量單位重新表述。

As of the first quarter of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting in accordance with IFRS IAS 29 as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For recent comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through March 31, 2023.

截至 2020 年第一季度，該銀行開始根據阿根廷中央銀行製定的 IFRS IAS 29 報告應用惡性通貨膨脹會計的結果。為了進行最近的比較，前幾個季度的數據已應用 IAS 29 進行了重述，以反映截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日每個期間通脹調整的累積影響。

I will now briefly comment on the bank's first quarter 2023 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 9.8 billion, 52% lower than the fourth quarter of 2022 and 20% lower than the result posted a year ago. The bank's first quarter 2023 ROE and ROA of 8.2% and 1.7% respectively, remained healthy and showed the bank's earnings potential.

我現在簡要評論一下該銀行2023年第一季度的財務業績。 Banco Macro 本季度淨利潤為 98 億澳元，比 2022 年第四季度下降 52%，比去年同期下降 20%。該銀行2023年第一季度的ROE和ROA分別為8.2%和1.7%，保持健康水平，顯示了該銀行的盈利潛力。

Net operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses for the first quarter of 2023 was ARS 167.8 billion, increasing 5% or ARS 8 billion quarter-on-quarter due to higher income from financial instruments at fair value to profit or loss and higher net fee income. On a yearly basis, net operating income before general, administrative and personnel expenses increased 28% or ARS 36.8 billion.

2023 年第一季度，不計一般、行政和人事費用的淨營業收入為 1,678 億澳元，環比增長 5%，即 80 億澳元，原因是按公允價值計入損益的金融工具收入增加，淨額增加費用收入。按年計算，扣除一般、行政和人事費用之前的淨營業收入增長了 28%，即 368 億阿根廷比索。

In the first quarter of 2023, provision for loan losses totaled ARS 3.5 billion, 13% or ARS 397 million higher than in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, provision for loan losses increased 129% or ARS 1.9 billion. Operating income after general, administrative and personnel expenses were ARS 103.9 billion, 9% or ARS 8.8 billion higher than in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 39% or ARS 29.3 billion higher than the first quarter of 2022.

2023 年第一季度，貸款損失撥備總額為 35 億阿根廷比索，比上一季度增長 13%，即 3.97 億阿根廷比索。按年計算，貸款損失撥備增加了 129%，即 19 億阿根廷比索。扣除一般、行政和人事費用後的營業收入為 1,039 億澳元，比 2022 年第四季度增長 9%，即 88 億澳元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 39%，即 293 億澳元。

In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 97.7 billion, 4% or ARS 4.1 billion lower than the result posted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and 14% or ARS 12 billion higher than the result posted 1 year ago. In the first quarter of 2023, interest income totaled ARS 228.6 billion, 5% or ARS 13 million lower than in the fourth quarter of 2022.

本季度淨利息收入總計 977 億澳元，比 2022 年第四季度公佈的結果低 4%，即 41 億澳元，比一年前公佈的結果高出 14%，即 120 億澳元。 2023年第一季度，利息收入總額為2286億澳元，比2022年第四季度減少5%，即1300萬澳元。

Due to lower income from government securities, it was 63% or ARS 88 million higher than the previous year. Within interest income, interest and loans increased 2% or ARS 1.6 billion quarter-on-quarter due to a 304 basis point increase in the average lending rate. On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans was 25% or ARS 17.3 billion higher.

由於政府證券收入減少，比上年增加了 63%，即 8800 萬阿根廷比索。在利息收入中，由於平均貸款利率上升了304個基點，利息和貸款環比增長了2%，即16億阿根廷比索。按年計算，貸款利息收入為 25%，即 173 億阿根廷比索。

In the first quarter of 2023, interest on loans represented 38% of total interest income. Net income from government and private securities decreased 9% or ARS 13.1 billion quarter-on-quarter due to lower income from government securities. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, net income from government and private securities increased 91% or ARS 64.6 billion.

2023年第一季度，貸款利息佔總利息收入的38%。由於政府證券收入下降，政府和私人證券淨利潤環比下降 9%，即 131 億阿根廷比索。與 2022 年第一季度相比，政府和私人證券的淨利潤增長了 91%，即 646 億阿根廷比索。

In the first quarter of 2023, FX gains, including investment in diluted financing totaled ARS 36.7 billion gain due to the 18% Argentine peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar and the bank's long dollar position. In the first quarter of 2023, interest expense totaled ARS 130.9 billion, a 6% or ARS 9 billion decrease compared to the fourth quarter of 2022 and 138% or ARS [75.9] billion higher than on a yearly basis.

2023 年第一季度，由於阿根廷比索兌美元貶值 18% 以及該銀行的美元多頭頭寸，包括稀釋融資投資在內的外匯收益總計 367 億阿根廷比索。 2023 年第一季度，利息支出總計 1,309 億阿根廷比索，比 2022 年第四季度下降 6%，即 90 億阿根廷比索，比去年同期增加 138%，即 75.9 億阿根廷比索。

Within interest expenses, interest on deposits decreased 7% or ARS 10.1 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by a 14% decrease in the average volume of private sector deposits while the average interest rate paid on deposits increased 537 basis points.

在利息支出中，存款利息環比下降7%，即101億阿根廷比索，主要是由於私營部門存款平均數量下降14%，而存款平均利率上升537個基點。

On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 143% or ARS 75.1 billion. In the first quarter of 2023, interest on deposits represented 98% of the bank's financial expenses. In the first quarter of 2023, the bank net interest margin, including FX, was 33.6% higher than the 32.7% posted in the fourth quarter of 2022 and a 22.8% in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, net fee income totaled ARS 22 billion, 6% or ARS 1.3 billion higher than in the fourth quarter of '22. On a yearly basis, net fee income was 6% higher.

存款利息同比增長 143%，即 751 億阿根廷比索。 2023年第一季度，存款利息佔銀行財務費用的98%。 2023 年第一季度，銀行淨息差（包括外匯）較 2022 年第四季度的 32.7% 和 2022 年第一季度的 22.8% 高出 33.6%。 2023 年第一季度，淨利息收益率手續費收入總計 220 億阿根廷比索，比 2022 年第四季度增長 6%，即 13 億阿根廷比索。按年計算，淨費用收入增長了 6%。

In the first quarter of 2023, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss totaled ARS 9.2 billion gain mainly due to the mark-to-market of dual bonds. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS 5.10 billion decreasing 18% compared to the fourth quarter of 2022. On a yearly basis, other operating income decreased 16% or ARS 1.1 billion.

2023年第一季度，以公允價值計量且其變動計入損益的金融資產和負債的淨利潤總計為92億阿根廷比索，主要得益於雙債券按市值計價。本季度其他營業收入總計 51 億阿根廷比索，較 2022 年第四季度下降 18%。按年計算，其他營業收入下降 16%，即 11 億阿根廷比索。

In the first quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's personnel and administrative expenses totaled ARS 35.1 billion, 1% or ARS [424] million lower than the previous quarter, due to lower administrative expenses which were partially offset by higher employee benefits. On a yearly basis, personnel and administrative expenses increased 12% or ARS 3.8 billion.

2023 年第一季度，Banco Macro 的人員和管理費用總額為 351 億阿根廷比索，比上一季度減少 1%，即 [424] 萬阿根廷比，原因是管理費用減少，但部分被員工福利增加所抵消。人員和管理費用同比增長 12%，即 38 億阿根廷比索。

In the first quarter of 2023, the efficiency ratio reached 25.5%, improving from the 28.6% posted in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, expenses decreased 1%, while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income increased 6%.

2023年第一季度，效率比率達到25.5%，較2022年第四季度的28.6%有所改善。2023年第一季度，費用下降1%，而淨利息收入加淨費用收入加上其他營業收入收入增加6%。

In the first quarter of 2023, the result from the net monetary position totaled ARS 88.4 billion loss, which was 27% or ARS 19 billion higher than the loss posted in the fourth quarter of '22, as a consequence of higher inflation observed in the quarter, which was 444 basis points above the level registered in the fourth quarter of '22.

2023 年第一季度，淨貨幣頭寸損失總計 884 億澳元，比 2022 年第四季度的損失高出 27%，即 190 億澳元，原因是 2023 年通貨膨脹率上升。比 2022 年第四季度的水平高出 444 個基點。

Inflation was 21.7% and was up from 17.3% from the previous quarter. In the first quarter of 2023, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 36.3%. Further information is provided in Note 22 to our financial statements.

通貨膨脹率為 21.7%，高於上一季度的 17.3%。 2023年第一季度，Banco Macro的有效稅率為36.3%。我們的財務報表附註 22 提供了更多信息。

In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector totaled ARS 694.5 billion, decreasing 4% or ARS 30.4 billion quarter-on-quarter and decreasing 8% or ARS 63.5 billion year-on-year.

從貸款增長來看，該行對私營部門的融資總額為6,945億阿根廷比索，環比下降4%，即304億阿根廷比索，同比下降8%，即635億阿根廷比索。

Within commercial loans, overdraft stand out with a 10% or ARS 6.2 billion decrease quarter-on-quarter. On the consumer side, credit card loans decreased 7% or ARS 16.1 billion in the quarter, while personal loans and mortgages decreased 7%. It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share over private sector loans as of March 2023 reached 7.3%.

在商業貸款中，透支最為突出，環比下降 10%，即 62 億阿根廷比索。在消費者方面，本季度信用卡貸款下降 7%，即 161 億阿根廷比索，而個人貸款和抵押貸款下降 7%。值得一提的是，截至 2023 年 3 月，Banco Macro 在私營部門貸款中的市場份額達到 7.3%。

On the funding side, total deposits decreased 7% or ARS 112.6 billion quarter-on-quarter and increased 6% or ARS (inaudible) year-on-year. Private sector deposits decreased 6% or ARS 89.7 billion quarter-on-quarter, with public sector deposits decreased 17% quarter-on-quarter.

在資金方面，存款總額環比下降 7%，即 1,126 億阿根廷比索，同比增長 6%，即阿根廷比索（聽不清）。私營部門存款環比下降 6%，即 897 億阿根廷比索，公共部門存款環比下降 17%。

The decrease in private sector deposits was led by demand deposits, which decreased 13% or ARS 83.4 billion quarter-on-quarter, while term deposits increased 4% or ARS 27 billion. Within private sector deposits, peso deposits decreased 8% or ARS 109.1 billion, while U.S. dollar deposits decreased 17% or ARS 196 million.

私營部門存款下降的主要原因是活期存款，環比下降 13%，即 834 億阿根廷比索；而定期存款則增長 4%，即 270 億阿根廷比索。在私營部門存款中，比索存款下降 8%，即 1091 億阿根廷比索，而美元存款下降 17%，即 1.96 億阿根廷比索。

As of March 2023, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 42% of total costs. Banco Macro's market share over private sector deposits as of March 2023 totaled 6.1%. In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's nonperforming to total financial ratio reached 1.41%, the coverage ratio measured as total allowance and our expected credit losses over nonperforming loans under Central Bank rules totaled 145.3%.

截至 2023 年 3 月，Banco Macro 的交易賬戶約佔總成本的 42%。截至 2023 年 3 月，Banco Macro 在私營部門存款中的市場份額總計為 6.1%。從資產質量來看，宏觀銀行的不良貸款率達到1.41%，撥備覆蓋率和央行規定的不良貸款預期信用損失合計為145.3%。

Consumer portfolio nonperforming loans deteriorated 24 basis points, up to 1.34% from 1.1% in the previous quarter while commercial portfolio nonperforming loans improved 22 basis points in the first quarter of 2023. They were down to 173% from 195% in the previous quarter.

消費者組合不良貸款惡化 24 個基點，從上一季度的 1.1% 上升至 1.34%，而商業組合不良貸款在 2023 年第一季度改善 22 個基點。從上一季度的 195% 降至 173%。

In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 520 billion, which represented a total regulatory capital ratio of 42.4% and a Tier 1 ratio of 39.1%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposit ratio reached 97%. Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continued to show a solid financial position.

從資本規模來看，Banco Macro的超額資本為5,200億阿根廷比索，佔總監管資本比率為42.4%，一級資本比率為39.1%。該銀行的目標是充分利用這些過剩資本。該銀行的流動性仍處於適度水平。流動資產佔總存款的比例達到97%。總體而言，我們又迎來了一個積極的季度。我們繼續展現出穩健的財務狀況。

Asset quality remain under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve more our efficiency standards, and we keep a well-optimized deposit base.

資產質量繼續受到控制並受到密切監控。我們不斷努力提高效率標準，並保持優化的存款基礎。

At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have.

目前，我們願意回答您可能提出的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Brian Flores with Citibank.

我們的第一個問題將來自花旗銀行的布萊恩·弗洛雷斯。

I just have 2 questions. The first one is on ROE. So I know you're running at high levels of capital, and this could be a headwind, but are you changing the soft guidance you provided on the -- around 10% ROE from the previous conference call? And my second point is on politics. Given the momentum in Milei's candidacy, I just wanted to know if you know of any specific measures proposed by him or his team that could affect the banking regulation?

我只有 2 個問題。第一個是關於ROE。所以我知道你們的資本水平很高，這可能是一個逆風，但你們是否會改變上次電話會議上提供的大約 10% 的 ROE 的軟指導？我的第二點是關於政治。鑑於米雷的競選勢頭，我只是想知道你是否知道他或他的團隊提出了哪些可能影響銀行業監管的具體措施？

Brian, this is Jorge Scarinci. On your first question about ROE guidance that we gave in the former quarter conference call. Basically, what I'm thinking is what we mentioned was a kind of a range of guidance. Basically, what we are seeing right now in Argentina is high inflation than the one that we -- at least the consensus was expecting.

布萊恩，這是豪爾赫·斯卡林奇。關於我們在上一季度電話會議中給出的關於淨資產回報率指導的第一個問題。基本上，我的想法是我們提到的一系列指導。基本上，我們現在在阿根廷看到的通貨膨脹率高於我們——至少是共識預期的水平。

So the range for ROE for this year should be slightly lower than 10%, should be 9% or 8.5% area. So because the consensus is expecting inflation to be 130% compared to the 94% that we had in 2022. So basically, this is not an operating level. Because at an operating level, we are showing good growth rates year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. But in terms of bottom line, we are affected by high inflation.

所以今年ROE的範圍應該略低於10%，應該是9%或8.5%面積。因為共識預計通脹率為 130%，而 2022 年通脹率為 94%。所以基本上，這不是一個操作水平。因為在運營層面，我們顯示出良好的同比和環比增長率。但就底線而言，我們受到高通脹的影響。

Second -- your second question, honestly, we do not make a lot of comments on politics, but honestly, we do not know as far as for the moment, any potential measure on Milei's candidacy. So honestly, no clue in this politics question that you asked.

第二，你的第二個問題，老實說，我們對政治沒有做太多評論，但老實說，我們目前不知道對米萊的候選資格有任何潛在的措施。老實說，你問的這個政治問題沒有任何線索。

Our next question will come from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的埃內斯托·加比隆多。

I have 3 from my side. The first one will be on your expectations for loan growth considering that -- well, as you mentioned, we have been seeing higher inflation and higher interest rates in Argentina. So if you can elaborate on your expectations per segment for this year will be helpful.

我這邊有3個。第一個是您對貸款增長的預期，考慮到——嗯，正如您提到的，我們看到阿根廷通脹率和利率上升。因此，如果您能詳細說明今年每個細分市場的期望將會有所幫助。

Then my second question is on your sensitivity to the Argentine peso and inflation. I think you have a dual bond position that benefits from the peso depreciation and the higher inflation. So I would like to understand the sensitivity. So for example, an increase of 100 basis points on inflation or 100 basis points on the depreciation of the Argentine peso. What would that mean in terms of Argentine pesos in your P&L? I know it's a difficult one to estimate. But something approximately will help us.

那麼我的第二個問題是關於您對阿根廷比索和通貨膨脹的敏感度。我認為您擁有雙重債券頭寸，可以從比索貶值和通脹上升中受益。所以我想了解一下敏感性。例如，通貨膨脹增加 100 個基點，或阿根廷比索貶值 100 個基點。就您的損益表中的阿根廷比索而言，這意味著什麼？我知道這是一個很難估計的事情。但大約有一些東西會對我們有所幫助。

And then my last question is on your Tier 1 ratio. So we have seen that the regulator has allowed the banks to start paying excess capital and allow you to pay dividends. So after paying the dividends, where do you see your Tier 1 ratio? And where do you see will be like your targets or your comfortable level for the Tier 1 ratio during the next years?

我的最後一個問題是關於您的一級比率。所以我們看到監管機構允許銀行開始支付超額資本並允許你支付股息。那麼支付股息後，你在哪裡看到你的一級比率呢？您認為未來幾年您的目標或您對一級比率的舒適水平會達到什麼水平？

First question, in terms of loan growth, again, what we are seeing is that loans are going to grow in nominal levels but are going to decrease in real terms as what we are seeing for the moment. Basically, this is a special year in terms of elections plus high inflation and of course, high nominal rates.

第一個問題，就貸款增長而言，我們所看到的是，貸款名義水平將會增長，但實際水平將會下降，正如我們目前所看到的那樣。基本上，就選舉、高通脹以及高名義利率而言，今年是特殊的一年。

So we are not expecting a pressure on loan demand. So we are expecting loans to be below inflation between 5% and 10% in 2023, mostly in the commercial area, maybe not that much in the consumption portfolio. But the total loan book should be down between 5% and 10% compared to inflation in 2023.

因此，我們預計貸款需求不會受到壓力。因此，我們預計 2023 年貸款將低於通貨膨脹率 5% 至 10%，主要是在商業領域，在消費投資組合中可能不會那麼多。但與 2023 年的通脹率相比，貸款總額應下降 5% 至 10%。

In terms of your second question about the sensitivity on the dual bond portfolio and a 1% increase in inflation or the devaluation of the official effects could be impacting our loan book. As you mentioned, it's not that easy to measure, but I would assume approximately, in pesos should be after income tax, in the area of ARS 2.3 billion, ARS 2.4 billion, a 1% increase in inflation, 1% increase on the devaluation of the official effects. So take this number as a rough number, okay?

關於你的第二個問題，關於雙重債券投資組合的敏感性，通貨膨脹增加 1% 或官方貨幣貶值可能會影響我們的貸款賬簿。正如你提到的，這並不容易衡量，但我假設，以比索計，所得稅後應為 23 億阿根廷比索，24 億阿根廷比索，通貨膨脹增加 1%，貶值增加 1%官方效果。所以把這個數字當作一個粗略的數字，好嗎？

In terms of your fourth question, the Tier 1 ratio that, of course, we know, and we are conscious that it's a high number that this is a consequence of what has happened in previous years about raising capital and 2 years of -- that we cannot -- banks, in general, could not pay cash dividends. So as we mentioned, we are allowed to pay dividends this year again in 6 installments.

就你的第四個問題而言，我們當然知道一級比率，而且我們意識到這是一個很高的數字，這是前幾年籌集資金和兩年來發生的事情的結果——我們不能——一般來說，銀行不能支付現金股息。正如我們提到的，我們今年可以再次分六期支付股息。

Assuming that the dividend payment would be 1 installment, the Tier 1 ratio would be down from a level of 39.1% that we posted in this press release to approximately 32%. However, since the dividend is going to be paid in installments, the Tier 1 ratio might not decline that much because we are going to have the monthly results that could at some point offset the decline on the Tier 1 because of the payment of the dividend.

假設分期支付股息，一級比率將從我們在本新聞稿中發布的 39.1% 水平降至約 32%。然而，由於股息將分期支付，一級資本比率可能不會下降那麼多，因為我們的月度業績可能會在某個時候抵消因支付股息而導致的一級資本下降。

But of course, going forward, we would like to work, of course, with a narrower Tier 1 ratio. We are going to continue paying cash dividends. And again, as always, we mentioned, the consolidation or concentration process in the banking sector in Argentina, we think that this continues. So it might happen that in the future, there could be a possibility for an M&A. So we could use this excess capital for those purposes also plus that we have to, as we always comment, that we are a private local bank. So we have to be a bit more conservative and always work with a cushion in terms of capital for organic growth.

但當然，展望未來，我們當然希望以更窄的一級比率進行工作。我們將繼續派發現金股利。與往常一樣，我們再次提到，阿根廷銀行業的整合或集中過程，我們認為這種情況仍在繼續。所以未來可能會有併購的可能性。因此，我們可以將多餘的資本用於這些目的，而且我們必須，正如我們一直評論的那樣，我們是一家私人當地銀行。因此，我們必須更加保守一點，並始終為有機增長提供資本緩衝。

So let's assume that in a normalized scenario with a normalized inflation level, we should be working with a Tier 1 ratio ranging in the area of 18%, 20%. But that is a long-term normalized scenario. Just to give you an idea where the ideal Tier 1 ratio for Banco Macro would be.

因此，我們假設在通脹水平正常化的情況下，我們應該使用 18% 至 20% 範圍內的一級比率。但這是長期的正常情況。只是為了讓您了解宏觀銀行理想的一級比率是多少。

Our next question will come from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的尤里·費爾南德斯。

I have a question regarding deposits. Deposits are down 7% quarter-over-quarter. But when we look to the (inaudible) deposits, and savings and all of that, they are down even more. And I kind of guess that there may be some seasonality first Q versus fourth Q. But looking year-over-year, they are still down. So my question is what is happening with deposits? What is your outlook there?

我有一個關於存款的問題。存款環比下降 7%。但當我們關注（聽不清）存款和儲蓄以及所有這些時，它們的下降幅度更大。我猜測第一季度與第四季度可能存在一些季節性。但與去年同期相比，它們仍然下降。所以我的問題是存款發生了什麼？您在那裡的前景如何？

And I have a second question regarding capital. like, for sure, you were not paying dividends. All those explanations you already gave in the previous question. But also the mix of loan to assets also changed a lot over the years, right? So you have much more government security than loans. And I think the risk bearing factors of this mix is super beneficial for your capital ratios.

我還有第二個問題是關於資本的。就像，可以肯定的是，你沒有支付股息。您在上一個問題中已經給出了所有這些解釋。而且這些年來貸款與資產的組合也發生了很大變化，對嗎？因此，政府的擔保比貸款要多得多。我認為這種組合的風險承擔因素對您的資本比率非常有利。

My question is, have you ever done like an exercise like returning to more normalized loan to asset mix? And what would be your capital ratio today? Because the concern is, at some point, let's say, Argentina becomes a more normalized banking sector and starts having more loans. How is your capital would look like? Like do you really have this amount of excess capital? Or is this mostly because you have like a very like government-related securities mix?

我的問題是，您是否曾經做過類似的練習，例如回歸更正常化的貸款資產組合？今天您的資本比率是多少？因為令人擔憂的是，在某個時候，比如說，阿根廷的銀行業變得更加正常化，並開始擁有更多貸款。你的首都是什麼樣子？比如你真的有這麼多多餘的資金嗎？或者這主要是因為您擁有非常相似的政府相關證券組合？

In terms of your deposit question, I mean, you have to consider the inflationary environment here. So at some point, it sounds quite reasonable that the people holding money in transactional accounts try to minimize those balances because inflation being at, I don't know, between 7.5% and 8% a month is a lot. So at some point, that could be some reasonable behavior from depositors on the transactional accounts.

就你的存款問題而言，我的意思是，你必須考慮這裡的通貨膨脹環境。因此，在某些時候，在交易賬戶中持有資金的人們試圖盡量減少這些餘額，這聽起來很合理，因為我不知道，每月的通貨膨脹率在 7.5% 到 8% 之間已經很多了。因此，在某些時候，這可能是儲戶在交易賬戶上的一些合理行為。

When you see the time deposits, they are growing quarter-on-quarter or year-over-year in real terms. And that is because of the increase on the interest rate that we have seen that the Central Bank have done in the last 60 or 90 days. So we think that the deposit behavior is quite reasonable. And of course, we continue to be pretty liquid in that sense. So in terms of funding, we feel pretty comfortable on the structure that we have right now on our deposit base.

當你看到定期存款時，你會發現它們的實際增長率是按季度或按年計算。這是因為我們看到央行在過去 60 或 90 天內加息了。所以我們認為存款行為是相當合理的。當然，從這個意義上說，我們仍然具有相當的流動性。因此，就資金而言，我們對目前存款基礎的結構感到非常滿意。

On your second question, we have not done the calculation exactly on what will happen if instead of having securities or government bonds that will be translated into new loans. As far as we know, of course, the level of loans to assets right now is one of the lowest in the history as a consequence of what we have mentioned. Previously, basically, the economy is not doing that well. Inflation is very high. Elections are going to take place in the next 4, 5 months.

關於你的第二個問題，我們還沒有準確計算出如果不將證券或政府債券轉化為新的貸款會發生什麼。當然，據我們所知，由於我們所提到的情況，目前的資產貸款水平是歷史上最低的水平之一。以前基本上經濟表現不太好。通貨膨脹率非常高。選舉將在未來四、五個月內舉行。

But when -- if you look backwards, I think that we reach loans to asset levels of close to 65%. I would say that in those areas, we would remain with a very high Tier 1 ratio. So in that sense, we do not have, of course, a problem of excess capital. We continue to be the best capitalized bank in Argentina.

但是，如果你回顧過去，我認為我們的貸款達到了接近 65% 的資產水平。我想說，在這些領域，我們將保持非常高的一級比率。所以從這個意義上說，我們當然不存在資本過剩的問題。我們仍然是阿根廷資本最好的銀行。

And we feel, again, comfortable with the level of capital that we have going forward, not in the present because of it says that volatility is high. But going forward, we think that we are going to be -- or become much more efficient on this excess capital.

我們再次對未來的資本水平感到滿意，而不是目前的資本水平，因為它表明波動性很高。但展望未來，我們認為我們將在多餘資本方面變得更加高效。

No, that's pretty clear, Jorge. Just a follow-up on deposits. The minimum the pulse payment, right? It's only for time deposits, right? So most of your spread on deposits, they are coming from checking savings account. Is that correct? Or those deposits also have some kind of minimum government remuneration?

不，這很清楚，豪爾赫。只是存款的後續行動。脈衝付款的最低限度是嗎？只能用於定期存款吧？因此，您的大部分存款利差都來自支票儲蓄賬戶。那是對的嗎？或者這些存款也有某種最低政府報酬？

The minimum rate is for term deposits only.

最低利率僅適用於定期存款。

Our next question will come from Carlos Gomez with HSBC.

我們的下一個問題將來自匯豐銀行的卡洛斯·戈麥斯。

Questions. I'm looking at the Page 16 of your press release, and I noticed that you have sharply reduced your exposure to share and increase your U.S. dollar net exposure. Is that correct? Are you currently USD 1.5 billion long? And if the time comes, how certain are you that is this net position is something that you could -- that you could have access to? And what is the reason for the reduction in (inaudible) exposure? Was this a swap of assets or there is different views that you have about how things are going to go?

問題。我正在查看你們新聞稿的第 16 頁，我注意到你們大幅減少了股票敞口，並增加了美元淨敞口。那是對的嗎？您目前持有 15 億美元多頭嗎？如果時機到來，你有多確定這個淨頭寸是你可以獲得的？ （聽不清）暴露減少的原因是什麼？這是資產交換還是您對事情的發展有不同的看法？

Basically, the change here is because we have a large portfolio on the dual bonds and a little bit on dollar-linked bonds. And in this case, all the long position on these bonds is taken into the foreign currency position and not on the inflation position because we have to choose whether to put it, and that's why we have increased -- why we have such a long position in U.S. dollars, and decrease on the inflation exposure basically.

基本上，這裡的變化是因為我們在雙重債券上擁有大量投資組合，在美元掛鉤債券上有少量投資組合。在這種情況下，這些債券的所有多頭頭寸都計入外幣頭寸，而不是通貨膨脹頭寸，因為我們必須選擇是否放置，這就是我們增加的原因 - 為什麼我們有這麼多的多頭頭寸以美元計算，通脹風險基本下降。

Okay. So you have to choose. But then if I add your [set] exposure and your ForEx exposure, it would have been reduced in the first quarter, right? Because you had [200%], they were down to [173%] per share and you had [1.6] and then going to [1.5] Have you closed the gaps in your balance sheet going into 2023?

好的。所以你必須選擇。但是，如果我將您的[設定]風險敞口和外匯風險敞口相加，第一季度的風險敞口就會減少，對吧？因為你有 [200%]，他們下降到每股 [173%]，你有 [1.6]，然後變成 [1.5] 你是否在進入 2023 年之前縮小了資產負債表中的缺口？

Basically, no, if you put all the effects -- you mean if you put all the net effects on the (inaudible), could be a little bit, but because we changed from (inaudible) or inflation bonds to dual bonds. But basically, we continue to be -- since we have to choose one of each, but in reality, we have exposure to both, either inflation or devaluation of the effects, the higher.

基本上，不，如果你把所有的影響——你的意思是，如果你把所有的淨影響都放在（聽不清）上，可能會一點點，但因為我們從（聽不清）或通貨膨脹債券變成了雙重債券。但基本上，我們仍然是——因為我們必須選擇其中之一，但實際上，我們都面臨著兩者的風險，要么是通貨膨脹，要么是貶值的影響，越高越好。

So again, maybe a little bit in terms of inflation. So this could be also because there were some loans tied to inflation that were mature, and we have an increase in our loan book adjusted by inflation in the same amount that the one that we were doing, basically.

再說一遍，也許在通貨膨脹方面有一點影響。因此，這也可能是因為有一些與通脹掛鉤的貸款已經到期，而且我們的貸款賬簿增加了通貨膨脹調整後的金額，基本上與我們正在做的金額相同。

Okay. And one final clarification. So again, when I look at this table, and I see a position of ARS 1.5 billion, that's about half of your equity with the official exchange rate. Should we see that as realized? Are you indeed hedged to, let's say, to half of your capital if and when there is a devaluation in Argentina?

好的。最後澄清一點。因此，當我查看此表時，我看到頭寸為 15 億阿根廷比索，按官方匯率計算，這大約是您資產的一半。我們應該看到這一點已經實現了嗎？如果阿根廷貨幣貶值，您是否確實會用一半的資本進行對沖？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question will come from [Robert Gilman] with [Free Technology].

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題將來自 [Robert Gilman] 和 [Free Technology]。

In regards to your dividends, how many dividend payments are you planning to make in the next year?

關於您的股息，您計劃明年支付多少股息？

We are going to make a payment -- this year, we are going to pay 6 installments starting at the end of May, the first one.

我們要付款——今年，我們將從五月底開始分六期付款，第一期。

Our next question will come from Rodrigo Nistor with Latin Situations.

我們的下一個問題將來自拉丁情境的羅德里戈·尼斯托。

I mean most of my questions have already been answered, but just with all these inflation challenges and tough regulations we're expecting this year, are you at Banco Macro already brainstorming for 2025, '26? Or does the upcoming election makes too hard to plan that for ahead? And then maybe, Jorge, what are the big things on your worry list right now?

我的意思是，我的大部分問題已經得到解答，但鑑於今年我們預計將面臨所有這些通脹挑戰和嚴格的監管，您在 Banco Macro 是否已經在為 2025 年“26”進行集思廣益了？還是即將到來的選舉讓我們很難提前做好計劃？豪爾赫，也許你現在最擔心的事情是什麼？

Rodrigo, of course, we do not -- we are not thinking exactly on '25 or '26. But in Argentina, it's not that easy to forecast 2 or 3 years ahead. Of course, we know where we want to be. And our strategy -- we'll continue with our strategy in the long run, that is to be the leading bank in Argentina. Maybe in the interim, we have to adjust the strategy as the one that we are doing right now. I think that most of the banks are doing that when you have a decline in loan demand, and you have deposits growing, you have excess funds.

羅德里戈，當然，我們不知道——我們並沒有準確地考慮“25”或“26”。但在阿根廷，預測未來兩三年的情況並不容易。當然，我們知道我們想去哪裡。我們的戰略——從長遠來看，我們將繼續我們的戰略，那就是成為阿根廷領先的銀行。也許在此期間，我們必須調整我們現在正在做的策略。我認為，當貸款需求下降、存款增長、資金過剩時，大多數銀行都會這樣做。

At some point, you have to invest them in some place in order to get some return, plus at some point, you have to hedge your equity against inflation or I guess a potential devaluation of FX. But I think that in the long run, we have a clear picture where we want to be in the leading positions of the banking sector in Argentina.

在某些時候，你必須將它們投資在某個地方才能獲得一些回報，而且在某些時候，你必須對沖你的股票以抵禦通貨膨脹，或者我猜可能是外匯貶值。但我認為，從長遠來看，我們有一個清晰的願景，即我們希望在阿根廷銀行業中處於領先地位。

I would say that the thing that the worries us the most are basically an acceleration of inflation that this is going to affect more the loan demand and of course, the P&L on banks. I would say that inflation would be the worst problem for the banking sector, and I think that's for Argentina in general.

我想說，我們最擔心的事情基本上是通貨膨脹的加速，這將更多地影響貸款需求，當然還有銀行的損益。我想說，通貨膨脹將是銀行業面臨的最嚴重的問題，我認為這對整個阿根廷來說也是如此。

There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now turn over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for final considerations.

目前沒有更多問題。問答環節到此結束。我現在請尼古拉斯·托雷斯先生進行最後考慮。

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Have a good day.

感謝大家對宏觀銀行的興趣。我們感謝您的寶貴時間，並期待再次與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。