Banco Macro SA (BMA) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for waiting. At this time, we would like to welcome everyone to Banco Macro's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. We would like to inform you that the 4Q '22 press release is available to download at the Investor Relations website of Banco Macro, www.macro.com.ar/relaciones-inversores. Also, this event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

It is now my pleasure to introduce our speakers. Joining us from Argentina are Mr. Gustavo Manriquez, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Jorge Scarinci, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Nicolas Torres, IR.

Now I will turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Torres. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, [Gary]. Good morning, and welcome to Banco Macro's Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. Any comments we may make today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to various conditions, and these are outlined in our 20-F, which was filed to the SEC, and it's available at our website. Fourth quarter 2022 press release was distributed yesterday and is available at our website.

All figures are in Argentine pesos and have been restated in terms of the measuring unit current at the end of the reporting period. As of the first quarter of 2020, the bank began reporting results applying hyperinflation accounting, in accordance with IFRS IAS 29, as established by the Central Bank of Argentina. For ease of comparison, figures of previous quarters have been restated applying IAS 29 to reflect the accumulated effect of the inflation adjustment for each period through December 31, 2022.

I will now briefly comment on the bank's fourth quarter 2022 financial results. Banco Macro's net income for the quarter was ARS 16.6 billion, 59% higher than the third quarter of 2022 and 19% lower than the result posted a year ago. The bank's fourth quarter 2022 ROAE and ROAA of 16.9% and 3.3%, respectively, remains healthy and show the bank's earnings potential. In fiscal year 2022, total comprehensive income totaled ARS 37.5 billion, which was 32% lower than the result posted in fiscal year 2021. Net operating income before general and administrative and personnel expenses for the fourth quarter of 2022 was ARS 131.3 billion, decreasing 8% or ARS 11.3 billion quarter-on-quarter due to lower income from financial instruments at fair value through profit or loss. On a yearly basis, net income before general and administrative and personnel expenses increased 36% or ARS 34 billion.

In fiscal year 2022, net operating income before general and administrative and personnel expenses totaled ARS 498.2 billion, which was 36% higher than the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, provision for loan losses totaled ARS 2.5 billion, which was ARS 861 million higher than in the previous quarter. On a yearly basis, provision for loan losses decreased 34% or ARS 1.3 billion. Operating income after general and administrative and personnel expenses was ARS 78.2 billion, 11% or ARS 10 billion lower than in the third quarter of 2022 and 79% of ARS 34.5 billion higher than the fourth quarter of 2021.

In the quarter, net interest income totaled ARS 83.6 billion, 12% or ARS 9.1 billion higher than the result posted in the third quarter of 2022 and 20% or ARS 14 billion higher than the result posted one year ago. In fiscal year 2022, net interest income was 20% higher than in fiscal year 2021 as a result of different regulations adopted by the Central Bank that set caps on lending rates and flow on deposit rates. In the fourth quarter of 2022, interest income totaled ARS 198.6 billion, 23% or ARS 37.7 billion higher than in the third quarter of 2022, due to higher income from government securities and was 79% or ARS 87.8 billion higher than the previous year.

Within interest income, interest on loans increased 7% or ARS 4.5 billion quarter-on-quarter due to a 570 basis point increase in the average lending rate. On a yearly basis, income from interest on loans was 21% or ARS 12 billion higher. In the fourth quarter of 2022, interest on loans represented 35% of total interest income. Fiscal year 2022, interest amounts totaled ARS 251 billion and increased 12% compared to fiscal year 2021. Net income from government and private securities increased 34% or ARS 30.7 billion quarter-on-quarter due to higher income from government securities. Compared to the fourth quarter of 2021, net income from government and private securities increased 144% or ARS 71.9 billion.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, FX gains, including investments in the (inaudible) financing totaled ARS 30.6 billion gain due to the 20% Argentines peso depreciation against the U.S. dollar and the bank's loan dollar position. In the fourth quarter of 2022, interest expense totaled ARS 115 billion, which was 33% or ARS 28.6 billion higher compared to the third quarter of 2022 and 179% or ARS 73.8 billion higher on a yearly basis. Within interest expenses, interest on deposits increased 34% or ARS 28.5 billion quarter-on-quarter, mainly driven by 10% increase in the average volume of private sector deposits, while the average interest rates paid on deposits increased 860 basis points. On a yearly basis, interest on deposits increased 187% or ARS 73.8 billion.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, interest on deposits represented 98% of the bank's financial expenses. In fiscal year 2022, interest expense increased 67% compared to fiscal year 2021. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the bank's net interest margin, including FX, was 32.7% which was higher than the 28.1% posted in the third quarter of '22 and a 21.2% registered in the fourth quarter of 2021. In fourth quarter 2022, net fee income totaled ARS 17 billion, 2% or ARS 361 million higher than in the third quarter of 2022. On a yearly basis, net fee income was unchanged from a year ago. Fiscal year 2022, net fee income was 4% higher than in the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2022, net income from financial assets and liabilities at fair value to profit and loss totaled at ARS 3.3 billion loss, which was ARS 32 billion lower than the previous quarter, mainly due to [dual] bonds.

In fiscal year 2022, net income from financial assets and liabilities and fair value through profit or loss was 24% higher than in the fiscal year 2021, mainly due to higher income from government securities. In the quarter, other operating income totaled ARS 5.7 billion, increasing 31% compared to the third quarter of 2022. On a yearly basis, other operating income decreased 49% or ARS 1.9 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2022, Banco Macro's personnel administrative expenses totaled ARS 29.2 billion, 4% or ARS 1.2 billion lower than the previous quarter due to lower employee benefits, which were partially offset by higher administrative expenses. On a yearly basis, personnel and administrative expenses decreased 4% or ARS 1.2 billion.

In fiscal year 2022, administrative expenses plus employee benefits increased 1% compared to fiscal year 2021, showing the strict cost control policies adopted by the bank's senior management. As of the fourth quarter of 2022, the efficiency ratio reached 28.6%, improving from the 29.1% posted in third quarter of 2022. And in the fourth quarter of 2022, expenses increased 3%, while net interest income plus net fee income plus other operating income increased 33%. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the result from the net monetary position totaled ARS 56.9 billion, [loss], which was 70% or ARS 11.4 billion lower than the (inaudible) in the third quarter of 2022. As a consequence of lower inflation which was 468 basis points below the third quarter of 2022.

Inflation in the quarter was 17.3% compared to 22% in the third quarter of 2022. In fiscal year 2022, Banco Macro's effective tax rate was 31.1%, higher than the 5.8% tax rate registered during fiscal year 2021. It should be noted that in fiscal year 2021 effective tax rate was affected by the implications of inflation adjustment on accounting and tax balances and the determination of the income tax due and deferred income tax. More information is provided in Note 25 to our financial statements. In terms of loan growth, the bank's financing to the private sector totaled ARS 596.4 billion, increasing ARS 2 billion quarter-on-quarter and decreasing 12% or ARS 83.3 billion year-on-year. Within commercial loans, overdraft stand out with a 2% or ARS 1.1 billion decrease quarter-on-quarter.

On the consumer side, credit card loans increased 6% or ARS 10 billion in the quarter, while personal loans and mortgages decreased 7% and 4%, respectively. In fiscal year 2022, credit card loans stand out with a 3% increase, while personal loans decreased 25%.

It is important to mention that Banco Macro's market share of the private sector loans as of December 2022 reached 7.4%. On the funding side, total deposits decreased 2% or ARS 23.5 billion quarter-on-quarter and increased 13% or ARS 148.3 billion year-on-year. Private sector deposits increased 2% quarter-on-quarter, while public sector deposits decreased 30% quarter-on-quarter. The increase in private sector deposits was led by demand deposits, which increased 5% from ARS 27.6 billion quarter-on-quarter, while time deposits decreased 2% or ARS 9 billion. Within private sector deposits, peso deposits decreased 4% or ARS 41.7 billion, while U.S. dollar deposits decreased 7% for $72 million. As of December 2022, Banco Macro's transactional accounts represented approximately 45% of total deposits. Banco Macro's market share with private sector deposits as of December 2022 totaled 6.3%.

In terms of asset quality, Banco Macro's nonperforming to total financial ratio reached 1.25%. The coverage ratio, measured as total allowances under expected credit losses over nonperforming loans under the Central Bank rules improved and totaled 151.7%. Consumer portfolio nonperforming loans improved 14 basis points, down to 1.1% from 1.23% in the previous quarter while commercial portfolio nonperforming loans deteriorated [52] basis points in the fourth quarter of '22, which was up to 195% from 143% in the previous quarter. In terms of capitalization, Banco Macro accounted an excess capital of ARS 410 billion, which represented a total regulatory capital ratio of 39.9% and a Tier 1 ratio of 36.6%. The bank's aim is to make the best use of this excess capital. The bank's liquidity remained more than appropriate. Liquid assets to total deposit ratio reached 95%.

Overall, we have accounted for another positive quarter. We continue showing a solid financial position. Asset quality remain under control and closely monitored. We keep on working to improve our efficiency standards, and we keep our well atomized deposit base. At this time, we would like to take the questions you may have. ***.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.

My first question is on the political and macro outlook. Can you give us some color on who are the potential presidential candidates? And how are the initial pulse looking? And then on the macro outlook, interest rates and inflation are well above Macro's administration. So I'm just wondering if there is a positive presidential outcome, how fast the new government would be able to fix such high variables and of course, to avoid a heavy depreciation of the currency. Then my second question is on loan growth. So how should we think about loan growth this year considering the high level of inflation? And then my last question is on your expected ROE for '23. How should we think about it if interest rates start to trend down at some point during the second half of the year.

This is Jorge Scarinci. On the political outlook, I think it's a bit early. Honestly, there are many names that could be candidates but the primary elections are in August until then -- at least until May, we can hear a bunch of names fully run around as a candidate. But I think that after May, we are going to have a shorter lead of potential candidates. So honestly, I don't know if it is worth spending time right now talking about what could be the candidate because, again, the lead is going to be much narrower than all the names that we are seeing, appearing in the press. In terms of the macro expectations, we believe that in 2023 and according to private consultants, inflation is going to remain similar levels than the level of 2022. And in terms of interest rates, we are not forecasting in the short term any kind of movement on interest rates.

Honestly, for the moment, we are not seeing a decline in interest rates in the second half, for the moment. And in terms of loan growth in 2023, also according to the consensus of the market, GDP is going to be nearly flat in real terms. And therefore, we're expecting almost no growth in real terms in loans. So it's going to be a similar inflation. In terms of expectation for ROE, we would like to maintain the 10% area as a kind of a forecast for this year. And if we are not having any strange event, we think that we could achieve it without any problem.

The next question is from Brian Flores with Citibank.

I have 2 on my side. The first one is, I wanted to understand a bit better the mechanics of the mark-to-market in government securities. I was just curious about it because we saw that during the quarter, you saw the net -- the interest income from these securities going up, mainly in line with what we saw in the third quarter, but we saw a very different outcome regarding the mark-to-market. So just can you remind us how this works? And then I'll ask a second question after this.

Yes, it's a bit complicated. There are 2 or 3 different places in the income statement where you have the income from securities. But in the interest income side, there you have like the accrued interest. And in another line, you have part of the bond portfolio that is exposed to a mark-to-market system. So we have like 2 different system, one that is -- that you accrue the income and on the other line, it's below the net income, there you put the difference between the accrual income and mark-to-market and also, we have some mark-to-market bonds that -- the result of that is put on the -- it's on -- hold on one second -- it's below the net interest income line that is net income from financial instruments at fair value. So it's a bit complicated, but income from securities are spread all over income stated in different accounts.

Okay. Perfect. But my question is, is this mark-to-market done mechanically? Or is this something you kind of decide to do at certain point in time, just because, for example, during the third quarter, we saw a very different thing with rates going up. So just wondering if this is something you do periodically or this is a more deterministic thing.

I mean if you are talking about the decline between the third quarter and fourth quarter in this line of net income from financial instruments at fair value, that is mark-to-market. Only that, yes, there were less increase in prices in those bonds that we have at mark-to-market. That's it, yes. The mark-to-market is mechanical. Yes.

That is perfect. Okay. And then just for the second question, we see you have a very high capital ratio. Just wondering, have you heard any updates from the regulator regarding the permission to distribute higher dividends?

We expect to have news on that front in the coming 2 or 3 weeks in terms of the allowance to distribute dividends, again, for the moment, no news, but we think that we might have some news before, of course, the shareholders' meeting. So in the next couple of weeks, we should have some news.

The next question is from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

I have a follow-up regarding security here. I guess, it's the most relevant revenue line for you, right? Like we were checking loans, like loan revenues, they are only 30%, 35% of the gross financial income. So securities are the big chunk. And you also have tradables other mark-to-market like the OCI, it's pretty relevant, right? So my question is, there is a discussion that rates could continue to move up in Argentina. I think the IMF, they had the hopes that we could see positive real rates in Argentina. I really don't know if that's possible or not. There is also an adaptive discussion. But my question is, if rates continue to move much higher, is that good for you? Like can you reprice quickly those portfolios? Or I don't know, mark-to-market may hurt you? Like, again, I'm trying to just to understand like in a more long kind of question. What is your sensitivity to the LELIQs, right? If the LELIQs it goes to, I don't know, [80, 90], how that impacts Macro?

Yuri, let's say that making a summary on your question, yes, if there is an increase in interest rates, we have a positive impact on our P&L. Basically, we have a chunk of -- a much higher chunk of money in liquidity that we can reprice faster than our deposit base.

The next question is from Carlos Gomez with HSBC.

I mean we're going to another electoral cycle. And as usual, we have expectations that things can change. There will be a new policy going forward. How would you compare this start of 2023 with the start of 2015, 8 years ago when we were in a similar situation. How -- what do you think is more positive? And what do you think is more negative compared to that point.

Carlos, I think that is a good question. Of course, it's a different scenario. In 2015, I think that the appearance of Mauricio Macri's political figure was completely new, and there was a big positive expectations on his presidency and of course, the world, I think, that was much different than the world that we have today. Today, I would say that even though there are some positive expectations on a change of government, I think that everyone knows that the new government will have less time that what Mauricio Macri had in order to try to set up all the reforms and measures I think that the inflation environment in Argentina today is much higher than the one that we had in 2015. The level of reserves in the Central Bank is much shorter or smaller now compared to 2015.

So I think this is -- there you have the difference and coincidences. I think that today, I think that the scenario is a bit much harder for the new administration than what Mauricio Macri had in 2015. I think that the timing and, of course, the world, the region are completely different. Expectations on the new administration is different than Mauricio Macri in 2015. So I think it's a bit tougher for the coming government.

Okay. And let me put it this way. The last time, in the last cycle, all the banks when things have started moving, needed capital, they have capital raising. Are you right now more inclined to preserve capital for that future demand or to distribute it if you are allowed by the Central Bank?

I mean we think that you have a big excess. So we would like maybe to distribute part of that. But we think at the same time that could be in the future, a time of possibilities for more concentration in the banking sector in Argentina. So we want to also have some excess capital if there is an opportunity for an M&A transaction. But we are conscious that the level of capital that we have right now is above the level that we desire in a more normalized economic scenario.

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Rodrigo Nistor with Latin Securities.

Can you discuss Banco Macro's current strategy with regards to export to the public sector and the Central Bank. I mean given the upcoming elections, do you expect to make any changes on this strategy? And then if are you willing to extend or to buy treasury instruments that mature beyond the 2023 elections date? Or do you prefer to stick (inaudible) in the table.

Rodrigo, we think that we accommodate our strategy depending on the economic cycle. And for the moment, I think that this scenario of high level of inflation with low demand from the private sector put us in a kind of compulsory bet on some public sector assets, but of course, going forward, if the economic scenario improves, of course, we are going to go back and focus more on the private sector loan demand that is our core business and where we want to continue growing. And in terms of the security -- on the maturities on our security portfolio, basically, we -- what we range is the yield that we can get in, maybe shorter or longer. We think that we are signing a very low probability of any kind of problem with the peso debt with this government and with the next government. So we feel comfortable with the level of data and relate to the treasury and debt to the Central Bank that we have. But we believe that going forward in a more -- in a better economic scenario, the level of exposure to policy is going to be much smaller. But we feel comfortable with that level that we have right now.

There are no more questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Nicolas Torres for his final considerations.

Thank you all for your interest in Banco Macro. We appreciate your time and look forward to speaking with you again. Good day.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.