Ballard Power Systems Inc (BLDP) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Ballard Power Systems Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您耐心等候。我是會議接線員。歡迎參加 Ballard Power Systems 2019 年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(接線員指示)

I would now like to turn the conference over to Guy McAree, the Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資人關係總監 Guy McAree。請開始。

Thanks very much, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to Ballard's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2019 Financial and Operating Results Conference Call. So with us today, we've got Randy MacEwen, our President and CEO; and Tony Guglielmin, our Chief Financial Officer.

非常感謝，各位早安。歡迎各位參加 Ballard 2019 年第四季及全年財務與營運業績電話會議。今天與會的有我們的總裁暨執行長 Randy MacEwen，以及我們的財務長 Tony Guglielmin。

We're going to be making forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectations, beliefs and assumptions concerning future events. Actual results could be materially different. Please refer to our most recent annual information form and other public filings for our complete disclaimer and related information.

我們將發表前瞻性陳述，這些陳述係基於管理階層對未來事件的目前預期、信念與假設。實際結果可能會有重大差異。請參閱我們最新的年度資訊表及其他公開申報文件，以取得完整的免責聲明及相關資訊。

On the call today, Randy is going to provide his perspective on recent industry developments, on Ballard's progress in 2019 and on our outlook for next year -- for this year, 2020. Tony is going to then review Q4 and full year 2019 financials followed -- following -- followed by a Q&A session. I'll turn the call over to Randy now.

在今天的電話會議中，Randy 將就近期產業發展、Ballard 於 2019 年的進展，以及我們對明年——也就是今年 2020 年——的展望，提供他的觀點。接著 Tony 將回顧 2019 年第四季與全年財務表現，之後——接著——進入問答環節。我現在把電話交給 Randy。

Thanks, Guy, and welcome, everyone, to today's conference call.

謝謝你，Guy，也歡迎各位參加今天的電話會議。

On our earnings call 1 year ago, we invited you to measure our performance over the following 12 to 24 months based on technology performance improvements, cost reductions, partnerships, market share, new contract wins and growth in our prospects. I'm pleased to report that Ballard is making solid progress on all of these fronts.

在一年前的法說會上，我們邀請各位在接下來 12 到 24 個月，以技術性能改善、成本降低、合作夥伴關係、市占率、新合約得標以及潛在商機成長等面向來衡量我們的表現。我很高興報告，Ballard 在上述各方面都取得了穩健進展。

First, I want to provide some highlights on Q4 and full year 2019 results. Ballard delivered record revenue of $41.9 million in the last quarter of the year, with total 2019 revenue of $106.3 million exceeding our 2019 outlook. 2019 gross margin was 21%. Adjusted EBITDA was negative $28.2 million. Year-end cash reserves were strong at $147.8 million, and we ended 2019 with a 12-month order book for delivery in 2020 of $110.3 million.

首先，我想提供 2019 年第四季與全年業績的一些重點。Ballard 在年度最後一季創下 4,190 萬美元的營收新高，2019 年全年營收合計 1.063 億美元，超出我們對 2019 年的展望。2019 年毛利率為 21%。調整後 EBITDA 為負 2,820 萬美元。年底現金儲備強勁，達 1.478 億美元；我們在 2019 年底的 12 個月訂單簿（預計於 2020 年交付）為 1.103 億美元。

Looking ahead to our 2020 outlook, we anticipate top line growth this year underpinned by our order book and sales pipeline. Activity levels to start the year are very high, and we expect consolidated 2020 revenue of approximately $130 million led by Heavy-Duty Motive revenue particularly from China and Europe.

展望 2020 年，我們預期在訂單簿與銷售管線的支撐下，今年營收將成長。年初的活動水準非常高，我們預期 2020 年合併營收約為 1.3 億美元，主要由重型車輛動力（Heavy-Duty Motive）營收帶動，尤其來自中國與歐洲。

I would also like to provide some commentary on the potential impact of the coronavirus or COVID-19. Of course, our first concern is for our employees. We've implemented certain travel restrictions and other precautions to protect our employees, customers and partners. While it's still too early to accurately project the impact of COVID-19, given that the duration and scope of the outbreak is not yet known with certainty, at this time, we're not expecting a material impact to our 2020 financial results.

我也想就冠狀病毒（coronavirus）或 COVID-19 的潛在影響提供一些評論。當然，我們首要關切是員工的安全。我們已實施若干差旅限制及其他預防措施，以保護員工、客戶與合作夥伴。由於疫情持續時間與影響範圍尚未能確定，目前仍過早精準預估 COVID-19 的影響；但就目前而言，我們不預期其將對 2020 年財務結果造成重大影響。

Our current view is based on the information we have available at this time, including regarding staffing and activity levels at Ballard China, at Weichai, at Weichai-Ballard joint venture, at the Synergy Ballard joint venture and in other key partners.

我們目前的看法係基於現階段可取得的資訊，包括 Ballard 中國、濰柴（Weichai）、濰柴-Ballard 合資公司、Synergy Ballard 合資公司以及其他關鍵合作夥伴的人力配置與活動水準等。

We've completed industry channel checks and supply line checks in China, Japan and other affected markets. We've also considered publicly available information. Neither our Weichai-Ballard joint venture facility in Shandong province nor the Synergy Ballard joint venture facility in Guangdong province have experienced significant impacts to 2020 plans. They both have implemented extensive safety precautions. Activities of both joint ventures have now resumed, and staffing levels are close to pre-China New Year levels.

我們已在中國、日本及其他受影響市場完成產業通路查核與供應鏈查核。我們也考量了公開可得資訊。位於山東省的濰柴-Ballard 合資工廠，以及位於廣東省的 Synergy Ballard 合資工廠，均未對 2020 年計畫造成顯著影響。兩者皆已實施廣泛的安全防護措施。兩家合資公司的活動現已恢復，人力配置水準接近中國農曆新年前的水準。

At this time, we're not expecting material impacts on the time line for completion of construction of the Weichai-Ballard joint venture facility and commissioning of the stack and module assembly lines. While certain activities have been slightly delayed, we expect commissioning of facility by midyear 2020.

目前我們不預期濰柴-Ballard 合資工廠的建設完工時程，以及電堆與模組組裝產線的試車投產（commissioning）時程，會受到重大影響。儘管部分活動略有延遲，我們預期該設施將於 2020 年年中完成試車投產。

During this challenging period, Weichai continues to improve every day. They're a reliable, trusted and immensely capable partner with strong leadership from Chairman Tan. We'll provide a further update on our COVID-19 exposure during our Q1 2020 earnings call.

在這段充滿挑戰的期間，濰柴仍持續每天進步。在譚董事長的強力領導下，他們是可靠、值得信賴且能力極為出色的合作夥伴。我們將在 2020 年第一季法說會中，進一步更新我們在 COVID-19 方面的曝險情況。

Now recent developments in the hydrogen fuel cell industry, including here at Ballard, have generated remarkable momentum and underpin our continuing high level of conviction that 2020 and future years offer significant opportunities for our company to create long-term value for shareholders. Indeed, we believe we're entering the hydrogen decade where we will see scaled commercial adoption of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

近期氫燃料電池產業（包括 Ballard 在內）的發展帶來了顯著動能，並支撐我們持續維持高度信心：2020 年及未來數年，將為公司創造股東長期價值帶來重大機會。事實上，我們相信我們正進入「氫能十年」，將看到氫燃料電池車輛的規模化商業採用。

There are 6 important developments over the past year I'd like to highlight. I've discussed a number of these developments on prior earnings calls as well as with investors over the past several months, so I'm not going to repeat all of the examples and details regarding each development, although the slides accompanying this conference call do provide much of that detail and will, as usual, be available on our website following the call for reference purposes.

過去一年有 6 項重要發展我想特別強調。在先前的法說會以及過去幾個月與投資人的交流中，我已討論過其中多項發展，因此我不會重複每項發展的所有例子與細節；不過，本次電話會議所附的簡報投影片確實提供了多數細節，並將如往常一樣在會後上傳至我們的網站，供各位參考。

So the first of these developments is a significant number of new government policy initiatives that support decarbonization of energy, mobility and industry using hydrogen and fuel cells. The broader context is that 66 countries have announced net zero-emission targets for 2050, and 18 countries, 18 countries, representing 70% of global GDP have now published hydrogen road maps. Governments are increasingly recognizing hydrogen's ability to decarbonize sectors that are otherwise difficult to abate. As specific examples, a number of energy ministers have agreed to a 10-10-10 target of 10 million fuel cell electric vehicles, 10,000 hydrogen refueling stations within the next 10 years. Also as previously discussed, the EU has set landmark Class 8 truck emission reduction targets for 2025 and 2030.

第一項發展，是各國政府推出大量新的政策倡議，支持以氫能與燃料電池推動能源、交通運輸與工業的去碳化。更廣泛的背景是：已有 66 個國家宣布 2050 年淨零排放目標；而 18 個國家——18 個國家——合計占全球 GDP 的 70%，目前已發布氫能路線圖。各國政府日益認知到，氫能有能力為原本難以減排的部門實現去碳化。以具體例子而言，多位能源部長已同意一項 10-10-10 目標：未來 10 年內達成 1,000 萬輛燃料電池電動車，以及 10,000 座加氫站。此外，如先前所討論，歐盟已為 2025 年與 2030 年設定具里程碑意義的 8 級（Class 8）卡車減排目標。

A second key industry development during 2019 was the range of investments in the hydrogen fuel cell sector made by blue chip corporations, including major mobility players. These investments indicate a new conviction level by corporations and the opportunity for hydrogen fuel cells as a zero-emission electrification pathway for mobility.

2019 年第二項關鍵產業發展，是多家藍籌企業（包括主要交通運輸領域業者）對氫燃料電池產業所進行的一系列投資。這些投資顯示企業對氫燃料電池的信心提升，並反映其作為交通運輸零排放電動化路徑的機會。

Indeed, since the closing of Ballard's strategic collaboration with Weichai in late 2018, the industry has seen a domino effect with numerous follow-on strategic tie-ups, investments and announcements, including from companies like Bosch, Cummins, CNH International, Michelin, Faurecia, Hyundai and Daimler Trucks. In addition, the Hydrogen Council grew significantly in the past year. The council now has 81 members that collectively represent total revenue of over EUR 18 trillion and close to 6 million jobs around the world.

事實上，自 Ballard 於 2018 年底與濰柴完成策略合作以來，產業已出現骨牌效應，陸續出現多項後續的策略結盟、投資與公告，包括 Bosch、Cummins、CNH International、Michelin、Faurecia、Hyundai 以及 Daimler Trucks 等公司。此外，氫能委員會（Hydrogen Council）在過去一年也大幅成長。該委員會目前有 81 位成員，其合計營收超過 18 兆歐元，並在全球創造接近 600 萬個工作機會。

A third important development last year relates to the growing and industry consensus that earlier mass commercialization of fuel cell electric vehicles will occur in medium- and heavy-duty motive use cases including bus, truck, train and marine applications, where there's a requirement for extended range, rapid refueling and heavy payload. Today, these applications are responsible for a disproportionate amount of emissions. These are the mobility use cases where fuel cells offer the highest value proposition from a total cost of ownership perspective, including those use cases featuring return-to-base duty cycles, where vehicles can be refueled at a centralized hydrogen refueling station consistent with the current user experience with legacy diesel. The consolidated view in the industry on the relative value proposition for fuel cells in these use cases was recently punctuated in 2 important industry reports, both of which are available for download from the Ballard website.

去年第三項重要發展，與業界日益形成共識有關：燃料電池電動車（FCEV）將更早在中型與重型動力應用情境中實現大規模商業化，包括巴士、卡車、火車與海事應用；這些情境需要更長續航、快速加氫以及更高載重。目前，這些應用對排放的貢獻比例不成比例地高。從總持有成本（TCO）的角度來看，這些正是燃料電池能提供最高價值主張的移動應用情境，其中也包括「回基地」的運行週期，車輛可在集中式加氫站補給，使用體驗與傳統柴油車一致。業界對燃料電池在這些情境中的相對價值主張之整合觀點，近期在兩份重要產業報告中得到強化，兩份報告皆可於 Ballard 官網下載。

On January 20, the Hydrogen Council published a report prepared by McKinsey entitled Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness: A Cost Perspective. The report studied 35 different use cases and show that in 22 of these, the total cost of ownership will reach parity with other low-carbon alternatives, typically battery electric, by 2030 and earlier in a number of cases. The report also found that in 9 of these 35 use cases, hydrogen solutions will be competitive with conventional options, typically internal combustion engine vehicles, by 2030. The 9 use cases are a direct bull's eye with respect to Ballard's strategic plan, including heavy- and medium-duty trucks, long-distance urban buses and regional trains. The report also notes that with smaller deployments, hydrogen infrastructure is still more costly, but as deployments scale, hydrogen infrastructure becomes lower cost per vehicle than battery recharging infrastructure. This is another major advantage for fuel cell electric vehicles in large fleets.

1 月 20 日，氫能委員會（Hydrogen Council）發布由麥肯錫（McKinsey）撰寫的報告《邁向氫能競爭力之路：成本觀點》（Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness: A Cost Perspective）。該報告研究了 35 種不同的使用情境，並顯示其中 22 種的總持有成本將在 2030 年（且在若干情境中更早）與其他低碳替代方案（通常為電池電動）達到持平。報告亦發現，在這 35 種情境中的 9 種，氫能解決方案將在 2030 年具備與傳統方案（通常為內燃機車輛）競爭的能力。這 9 種情境與 Ballard 的策略計畫高度契合，包括重型與中型卡車、長距離都會巴士以及區域列車。報告也指出，在部署規模較小時，氫能基礎設施仍較昂貴；但隨著部署規模擴大，氫能基礎設施的單車成本將低於電池充電基礎設施。這是燃料電池電動車在大型車隊中的另一項重大優勢。

The Hydrogen Council report is consistent with the white paper jointly prepared by Deloitte and Ballard that was published on January 8, entitled Fueling the Future of Mobility: Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Solutions for Transportation. The white paper demonstrates that in less than 10 years, it will become cheaper to run an FCEB than to run a battery electric vehicle or an internal combustion engine vehicle for certain commercial applications, results of the maturation of manufacturing technology, improved economies of scale, declining hydrogen fuel cost and further infrastructure development.

氫能委員會的報告與德勤（Deloitte）與 Ballard 共同撰寫、並於 1 月 8 日發布的白皮書《驅動未來移動：交通運輸的氫能與燃料電池解決方案》（Fueling the Future of Mobility: Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Solutions for Transportation）一致。該白皮書顯示，在不到 10 年內，對於某些商用應用而言，營運燃料電池電動巴士（FCEB）的成本將低於營運電池電動車或內燃機車輛；這得益於製造技術成熟、規模經濟改善、氫燃料成本下降以及基礎設施進一步發展。

Comprehensive TCO analysis of logistic trucks in Shanghai, drayage trucks in California and transit buses in London underscore a projection for the cost of commercial hydrogen vehicles to fall by more than 50% within the next 10 years and for fuel cell electric vehicles will be less expensive than BEVs and ICEV vehicles in all of the above scenarios by 2027 without the need for subsidies.

對上海物流卡車、加州港區短途運輸（drayage）卡車以及倫敦市區公車的全面 TCO 分析，凸顯一項預測：未來 10 年商用氫能車輛成本將下降逾 50%；且在上述所有情境中，燃料電池電動車到 2027 年將在無需補貼的情況下，比 BEV 與 ICEV 更便宜。

A fourth important industry development last year relates to the growing number of orders and deployments of fuel cell electric vehicles in key geographies around the globe. Now to put the industry in perspective, our friends at Plug Power have been doing a great job in the fuel cell forklift market with over 28,000 units deployed, including at end customers like Walmart, Amazon and Home Depot. There are also about 18,000 fuel cell passenger cars in operation globally today, supported by about 400 hydrogen refueling stations, primarily in California, Japan, South Korea and Germany, with another 200 hydrogen fueling stations planned for 2020.

去年第四項重要產業發展，與全球關鍵地區燃料電池電動車訂單與部署數量持續增加有關。為了讓大家理解產業現況，我們在 Plug Power 的朋友在燃料電池堆高機市場做得非常出色，已部署超過 28,000 台，終端客戶包括 Walmart、Amazon 與 Home Depot。目前全球也約有 18,000 輛燃料電池乘用車在運行，並由約 400 座加氫站支援，主要位於加州、日本、南韓與德國；另有 200 座加氫站計畫於 2020 年建置。

There's also been significant growth in deployment in heavy-duty motive markets. We understand that in China during 2019, 3,000 fuel cell electric vehicles were produced for buses and trucks, bringing the total number of FCEBs produced in that country now to approximately 6,300. We also estimate that Ballard technology is inside over 3,000 fuel cell electric buses and commercial trucks currently licensed or deployed in China, representing close to 50% market share.

重型動力市場的部署也出現顯著成長。我們了解中國在 2019 年生產了 3,000 輛用於巴士與卡車的燃料電池電動車，使該國累計生產的燃料電池電動巴士（FCEB）總數約達 6,300 輛。我們也估計，Ballard 技術目前已搭載於中國超過 3,000 輛已取得授權或已部署的燃料電池電動巴士與商用卡車中，市占率接近 50%。

In addition, China's making progress in deployment of hydrogen fueling stations with 44 now in operation and another 41 currently under construction. Phase 1 of the Gaoming Tram line in Foshan City, which is 6.5 kilometers long with 10 stations, also went into revenue service late last year, with 5 trams powered by Ballard FCveloCity modules.

此外，中國在加氫站部署方面也取得進展，目前已有 44 座投入營運，另有 41 座正在建設中。佛山市高明有軌電車線一期全長 6.5 公里、設 10 個車站，也於去年底開始載客營運，並有 5 列電車採用 Ballard FCveloCity 模組供電。

In Europe during 2019, 20 new fuel cell electric buses were deployed with Ballard technology now powering 56 fuel cell electric buses operating in countries like the U.K., Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and France. These 56 buses include 8 ExquiCity tram buses built by Van Hool that went into revenue service in the city of Pau in December last year. Ballard received orders in 2019 for 67 additional modules to support fuel cell buses planned for deployment in London, Aberdeen, Bolzano, Italy and Groningen, The Netherlands. And we also announced exciting H2Bus Consortium in 2019, with the goal of deploying 1,000 fuel cell electric buses and related infrastructure in European cities at commercially competitive rates by 2023.

2019 年在歐洲，新增部署 20 輛採用 Ballard 技術的燃料電池電動巴士，使 Ballard 技術目前為英國、德國、荷蘭、挪威與法國等國運行中的 56 輛燃料電池電動巴士提供動力。這 56 輛巴士包括 Van Hool 製造的 8 輛 ExquiCity 電車式巴士，並於去年 12 月在波城（Pau）開始載客營運。Ballard 在 2019 年也收到 67 套額外模組訂單，以支援計畫部署於倫敦、阿伯丁、義大利波札諾（Bolzano）以及荷蘭格羅寧根（Groningen）的燃料電池巴士。我們亦於 2019 年宣布令人振奮的 H2Bus 聯盟（Consortium），目標是在 2023 年前以具商業競爭力的費率，在歐洲城市部署 1,000 輛燃料電池電動巴士及相關基礎設施。

In 2019, the marine sector in Europe also began showing emerging interest and demand for fuel cell powertrains. We announced a number of orders and agreements during the year for modules to power river push boats in Germany and France and a car ferry in Norway. As a result of the market interest, we began construction of Ballard's Marine Center of Excellence at our facility in Hobro, Denmark to enable a local focus on activities in the emerging European marine segment. We anticipate the Marine Center of Excellence being completed and operational on the first half of 2020, with production capacity to build up to 200 fuel cell marine modules per year.

2019 年，歐洲海事領域也開始展現對燃料電池動力系統的新興興趣與需求。我們在年度期間宣布多項訂單與協議，提供模組以驅動德國與法國的內河推船，以及挪威的一艘汽車渡輪。因應市場興趣，我們開始在丹麥霍布羅（Hobro）的設施建置 Ballard 海事卓越中心（Marine Center of Excellence），以便在新興的歐洲海事領域進行在地化聚焦。我們預期海事卓越中心將於 2020 年上半年完工並投入運作，年產能可建置最多 200 套燃料電池海事模組。

And finally, in California, Ballard is currently powering 36 fuel cell electric buses plus 8 more in other U.S. states. During 2019, New Flyer's Xcelsior buses powered by Ballard successfully completed testing at the Altoona facility in Pennsylvania. As a result, both New Flyer and Eldorado now have commercially available FCEBs that have passed Altoona testing and are therefore eligible for FTA funding.

最後，在加州，Ballard 目前為 36 輛燃料電池電動巴士提供動力，另在美國其他州還有 8 輛。2019 年，採用 Ballard 動力的 New Flyer Xcelsior 巴士在賓州 Altoona 測試中心成功完成測試。因此，New Flyer 與 Eldorado 目前皆有通過 Altoona 測試、可商業供應的燃料電池電動巴士（FCEB），並因此符合獲得 FTA 資金補助的資格。

We're also continuing our important work on demonstration programs with the UPS delivery van and a Kenworth drayage truck in California. Globally, including just our fuel cell buses and commercial trucks, Ballard fuel cell technology and products have to date powered fuel cell electric vehicles in commercial, heavy and medium-duty motive applications for an industry-leading cumulative total of more than 30 million kilometers, equivalent to traveling the globe about 750 times. So with technology readiness now proven, market discussions are focused on integration, packaging, industrialization, scaling and cost reduction.

我們也持續在加州推進與 UPS 配送廂型車以及一輛 Kenworth 港區短途運輸（drayage）卡車的示範計畫等重要工作。在全球範圍內，僅就我們的燃料電池巴士與商用卡車而言，Ballard 的燃料電池技術與產品迄今已在商用、重型與中型動力應用中，累計驅動燃料電池電動車行駛超過 3,000 萬公里，約等同繞行地球 750 圈。因此，在技術成熟度已獲驗證的情況下，市場討論焦點正轉向整合、封裝、工業化、擴產與降本。

It was a fitting transition to the fifth key industry development, which is extended fuel cell technology advancement and cost reduction. At Ballard, we've improved product performance significantly while also reducing product cost by 65% during the past decade without the benefit of commercial volumes.

這也恰好銜接到第五項關鍵產業發展：燃料電池技術持續進步與成本下降。在 Ballard，我們在過去十年中大幅提升產品效能，同時在未受惠於商業化量產規模的情況下，將產品成本降低了 65%。

In mid-2019, we commercially launched our industry-leading LCS liquid-cooled fuel cell stack, an eighth-generation fuel cell module, the FCmove product. This next-generation module represents a 35% reduction in total life cycle cost from the prior generation while at the same time delivering technology advancements that deepen our product value proposition.

2019 年年中，我們商業化推出業界領先的 LCS 液冷燃料電池電堆，以及第八代燃料電池模組——FCmove 產品。這款次世代模組相較前一代可將全生命週期成本降低 35%，同時帶來技術進步，進一步強化我們產品的價值主張。

Looking forward over the next 2 to 3 years, we anticipate significant additional product cost reductions at the module, stack and MEA levels, driven by continued design improvements, manufacturing scale, supply chain activities and advanced manufacturing initiatives. We'll provide further details on these plans later this year.

展望未來 2 至 3 年，我們預期在模組、電堆與 MEA（膜電極組）層級將有顯著的額外降本，驅動因素包括持續的設計改良、製造規模擴大、供應鏈活動以及先進製造計畫。我們將在今年稍晚提供這些計畫的更多細節。

The sixth and final key industry development I wanted to highlight today is increasing investor interest in environmental, social and governance or ESG issues. We're seeing a strong shift on the importance and impact of sustainability, including the impact of climate change. Investment risks presented by climate change are set to drive a profound reassessment of risk and asset values likely driving a significant reallocation of capital. We believe this will have a material impact on the pricing and risk of assets around the world and will accelerate corporate behavior to sustainable businesses, which in turn will prove to be a strong catalyst for the adoption of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for companies that are looking to reduce their carbon intensity and corporate risks presented by climate change. Now our own 2019 management proxy circular and annual report will include an expanded ESG section that reflects the priority we're placing on this important aspect and represents a key step for Ballard toward moving comprehensive ESG reporting going forward.

我今天想強調的第六項也是最後一項關鍵產業發展，是投資人對環境、社會與公司治理（Environmental, Social and Governance，簡稱 ESG）議題的興趣日益提高。我們看到市場對永續性的重視程度與其影響正出現強勁轉變，其中包括氣候變遷的影響。氣候變遷所帶來的投資風險，將促使市場對風險與資產價值進行深刻的重新評估，並很可能推動資本的大幅重新配置。我們相信，這將對全球資產的定價與風險產生實質影響，並將加速企業行為朝向永續型商業模式轉變；而這反過來也將成為採用氫能與燃料電池技術的強力催化劑，特別是對於希望降低碳強度以及降低氣候變遷所帶來企業風險的公司而言。此外，我們2019年的管理層委託書通函與年報將納入擴充的 ESG 章節，以反映我們對此重要面向所賦予的優先順序，並代表 Ballard 朝向未來更全面的 ESG 報告邁出的關鍵一步。

In terms of important developments during 2019 and early this year, I'd also like to note that Ballard has experienced early momentum in several market applications I've not yet touched on. An example of a compelling market opportunity that also presents our customers with real value in their ESG strategy comes from the mining industry. In October, we announced an order from Anglo American Platinum's business for modules to power a 290-ton ultra-class mining truck. So for this mining application, fuel cells offer a strong value proposition to replace high-cost and dirty diesel, which represents about 30% of the operating cost of the mining operation. Hydrogen fuel cells represent an attractive value proposition for these mining sites that will be able to take advantage of low-cost solar energy production at the site, with surplus solar energy being used to produce green hydrogen through electrolysis. This hydrogen is then used to provide energy resilience to microgrid while also providing zero-emission fuel for these ultra-class mining trucks. As a result, assuming success of a demonstration, Anglo plans to deploy heavy trucks with megawatt scale fuel cell power solutions at other mining operations around the globe.

就2019年及今年年初的重要發展而言，我也想指出，Ballard 在幾個我尚未提及的市場應用上已出現初步動能。一個同時具備吸引力的市場機會、並能在客戶 ESG 策略中帶來實質價值的例子，來自採礦產業。10月，我們宣布接獲 Anglo American Platinum 旗下業務的訂單，提供模組為一輛 290 噸的超大型礦用卡車提供動力。因此，在此採礦應用中，燃料電池提供了強而有力的價值主張，可取代高成本且高污染的柴油；柴油約占採礦作業營運成本的 30%。對這些礦區而言，氫燃料電池是一項具吸引力的價值主張，因其可利用現場低成本的太陽能發電，並將多餘的太陽能透過電解製造綠氫。接著，這些氫氣可用於為微電網提供能源韌性，同時也為這些超大型礦用卡車提供零排放燃料。因此，若示範成功，Anglo 計畫在全球其他礦場部署採用兆瓦級燃料電池動力解決方案的重型卡車。

Ballard also signed a product development agreement with Hydrogène de France in 2019 for the development and integration of a multi-megawatt scale fuel cell system into its Renewstable power plant designed for stationary power applications. And in early 2020, we signed ESAs with adKor and SFC Energy for 500 air-cooled stacks to provide Jupiter backup power systems for deployment at radio tower sites in Germany through the end of 2021. We see this as the first tranche of deployments in what could ultimately include 1,500 radio tower sites in Germany. Each of these application areas provides an opportunity to cost-effectively leverage our core technology and products across a growing range of market opportunities.

Ballard 也在 2019 年與 Hydrogène de France 簽署產品開發協議，用於開發並整合一套多兆瓦級燃料電池系統至其 Renewstable 電廠中，該電廠係為定置式電力應用所設計。而在 2020 年初，我們與 adKor 與 SFC Energy 簽署 ESA，提供 500 組風冷式電堆，以供應 Jupiter 備援電力系統，並於 2021 年底前部署於德國的無線電塔站點。我們將此視為第一批部署，最終可能涵蓋德國多達 1,500 個無線電塔站點。上述每一個應用領域，都提供了以具成本效益的方式，將我們的核心技術與產品延伸至日益擴大的市場機會範圍的機會。

In the near term, we will expect to enjoy annual high growth rates and strong market share, followed by very sharp growth curves between 2023 and 2030 in many of our market applications, including bus, truck, rail and marine. We believe Ballard has a strong position in our chosen markets and are working hard to ensure attractive market share in the future to support high growth, improving financials and shareholder value creation.

在短期內，我們預期將享有每年高成長率與強勁市占率；其後在 2023 年至 2030 年間，我們多項市場應用（包括巴士、卡車、鐵道與海事）將出現非常陡峭的成長曲線。我們相信 Ballard 在所選定的市場中具備強勢地位，並正努力確保未來能取得具吸引力的市占率，以支撐高成長、改善財務表現並為股東創造價值。

Our enduring vision is to deliver fuel cell power for a sustainable planet. This vision gets all of us at Ballard fired up every morning to serve our customers and make the company better every day. With the current momentum in our industry and the progress we're making at Ballard, we're moving closer to our vision. And with that, I'll turn the floor over to Tony to briefly review the financials.

我們長期不變的願景，是為永續地球提供燃料電池動力。這個願景讓我們 Ballard 的每一位同仁每天早上都充滿熱情，為客戶服務並讓公司每天都變得更好。隨著產業目前的動能以及我們在 Ballard 所取得的進展，我們正更接近這個願景。接下來，我把時間交給 Tony，請他簡要回顧財務表現。

Thanks, Randy, and good morning, everyone. As Randy mentioned, top line revenue in Q4 2019 was a record $41.9 million, up 47% year-over-year. And on a full year basis, revenue was $106.3 million, up 10% from 2018. Power Products revenue did decline 13% for the full year while Technology Solutions revenue increased 43%.

謝謝你，Randy，各位早安。如 Randy 所提到，2019 年第四季的營收（top line revenue）創下 4,190 萬美元的紀錄，年增 47%。以全年來看，營收為 1.063 億美元，較 2018 年成長 10%。動力產品（Power Products）營收全年下滑 13%，而技術解決方案（Technology Solutions）營收則成長 43%。

Now within Power Products, heavy-duty motive was down 10% to $35.4 million due largely to a year-over-year decline in MEA shipments to the Synergy JV in China, partially offset by increased shipments of a range of fuel cell products to customers in China and in Europe. The increase in Technology Solutions revenue to $56.6 million was due primarily to the technology transfer program with our Weichai-Ballard joint venture in China.

在動力產品方面，重型移動（heavy-duty motive）營收下滑 10% 至 3,540 萬美元，主要原因是對中國 Synergy 合資企業的 MEA 出貨量較去年同期下降；部分則由對中國與歐洲客戶的多項燃料電池產品出貨增加所抵銷。技術解決方案營收增加至 5,660 萬美元，主要歸因於我們在中國的 Weichai-Ballard 合資企業所推動的技術移轉計畫。

Gross margin was 21% for the quarter and for the full year, declines of 4 points and 10 points, respectively. Now the Q4 and full year decline was largely result of a shift in revenue and product mix, reflecting the lower MEA sales to the Synergy JV as well as lower Portable Power and UAV revenues as a result of the disposition of the Protonex power manager business in Q4 2018. During the year, we also increased investment in MEA manufacturing capacity, which did add to our manufacturing overhead.

本季與全年毛利率皆為 21%，分別下降 4 個百分點與 10 個百分點。第四季與全年毛利率下滑，主要是營收與產品組合轉變所致，反映對 Synergy 合資企業的 MEA 銷售降低，以及因 2018 年第四季處分 Protonex 電源管理器（power manager）業務而導致的可攜式電源（Portable Power）與無人機（UAV）營收降低。在年度期間，我們也增加了對 MEA 製造產能的投資，這也提高了製造間接費用。

Going into 2020, we do expect to see an improvement in gross margin through the year as product revenue increases. Cash operating costs increased 21% in Q4 to $13.6 million primarily the result of higher program development and engineering expenses, including our European -- our investments in our European subsidiary to support marine applications. For the full year, cash operating costs decreased 6% or $2.4 million to $40.6 million. This was due primarily to the disposition of the Power Manager business I mentioned and the associated personnel reduction in Q4 2018.

展望 2020 年，隨著產品營收增加，我們預期毛利率將在年度內逐步改善。第四季現金營運成本增加 21% 至 1,360 萬美元，主要是計畫開發與工程費用增加所致，其中包括我們在歐洲的——我們對歐洲子公司的投資，以支援海事應用。全年現金營運成本下降 6%，或減少 240 萬美元至 4,060 萬美元。這主要是由於我先前提到的電源管理器業務處分，以及 2018 年第四季相關的人員縮減。

Looking ahead into 2020, we do expect an increase in cash operating costs as we continue to invest in new product development activities, realize the full year impact of our extensive 2019 hiring and launch our Marine Center of Excellence at the Hobro, Denmark facility.

展望 2020 年，我們預期現金營運成本將增加，因為我們將持續投資新產品開發活動、反映 2019 年大規模招募的人力在全年化後的影響，並在丹麥 Hobro 廠區啟動我們的海事卓越中心（Marine Center of Excellence）。

Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 was negative $7.4 million, a decline of $2.2 million compared to the same quarter the prior year and negative $28.2 million for the full year, a decline of $14.7 million. For the full year, the negative $28.2 million adjusted EBITDA did include Ballard's $11.1 million share of losses in joint venture investments in China, largely related to the Weichai-Ballard JV.

第四季調整後 EBITDA 為負 740 萬美元，較去年同期下降 220 萬美元；全年調整後 EBITDA 為負 2,820 萬美元，較前一年下降 1,470 萬美元。就全年而言，負 2,820 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 包含 Ballard 在中國合資投資的虧損分攤 1,110 萬美元，主要與 Weichai-Ballard 合資企業相關。

Ballard's net loss in Q4 was negative $10.3 million compared to negative $11.5 million in Q4 last year and for the full year, negative $39.1 million compared to negative $27.3 million in 2018. Earnings per share was negative $0.04 in Q4 compared to negative $0.06 in 2018, and for the full year, EPS was negative $0.17 compared to negative $0.15 for the prior year. Both the net loss and EPS numbers include Ballard's share of losses from our China joint ventures.

Ballard 第四季淨損為負 1,030 萬美元，去年第四季為負 1,150 萬美元；全年淨損為負 3,910 萬美元，2018 年為負 2,730 萬美元。第四季每股盈餘為負 0.04 美元，2018 年為負 0.06 美元；全年 EPS 為負 0.17 美元，前一年為負 0.15 美元。淨損與 EPS 兩項數字皆包含 Ballard 分攤自中國合資企業的虧損。

Cash provided by operating activities was $4.1 million in Q4, consisting of working capital inflows of $8 million partially offset by cash operating losses of $3.9 million. For the full year, cash used in operating activities was $14.2 million, an improvement of 55% from 2018, consisting of cash operating losses of $14.1 million and working capital outflows of $0.1 million. The year-over-year improvement was driven by a decline in working capital requirements, combined with a decrease in cash operating losses.

第四季營運活動提供的現金為 410 萬美元，其中包含 800 萬美元的營運資金流入，部分被 390 萬美元的現金營運虧損所抵銷。全年營運活動使用的現金為 1,420 萬美元，較 2018 年改善 55%，其中包含 1,410 萬美元的現金營運虧損與 10 萬美元的營運資金流出。年對年改善主要由營運資金需求下降所帶動，並結合現金營運虧損的減少。

In terms of liquidity, we ended 2019 with cash reserves of $147.8 million, down from $192.2 million at the end of 2018 and down slightly by $5.6 million from the end of Q3. As we look forward into 2020 and beyond, we anticipate significant growth as well as strategic opportunities on the M&A front that could enable strengthening of the customer value proposition and further scaling of the business.

就流動性而言，我們在2019年底的現金儲備為1.478億美元，低於2018年底的1.922億美元，且較第三季末小幅減少560萬美元。展望2020年及以後，我們預期將有顯著成長，以及在併購（M&A）方面的策略性機會，可望強化客戶價值主張並進一步擴大業務規模。

To supplement our current strong balance sheet, we plan to launch a $75 million at-the-market or ATM program to provide further flexibility in the face of these opportunities. Now this ATM program would represent only about 3% of Ballard's current market cap, enabling us to efficiently add cash reserves with no price discount, relatively modest transaction fees and limited dilution to existing shareholders.

為補強我們目前強健的資產負債表，我們計畫推出7,500萬美元的隨市發行（at-the-market，ATM）計畫，以在面對這些機會時提供更大的彈性。此ATM計畫僅約占Ballard目前市值的3%，使我們能在無價格折讓、相對適度的交易費用以及對現有股東稀釋有限的情況下，有效率地增加現金儲備。

Finally, we ended 2019 with a total order backlog of $178.7 million. This was a decrease of $20.9 million over the order backlog at the end of Q3, reflecting strong deliveries in Q4. Our full year outlook for 2020 revenue of approximately $130 million is supported by our $110.3 million 12-month order book at the beginning of the year, together with a robust sales pipeline of qualified commercial sales opportunities.

最後，我們在2019年底的總訂單積壓（order backlog）為1.787億美元。較第三季末的訂單積壓減少2,090萬美元，反映第四季交付強勁。我們對2020年全年約1.30億美元的營收展望，係由年初的1.103億美元12個月訂單簿（12-month order book）所支撐，並搭配強勁的合格商業銷售機會之銷售管線。

And with that, let me turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

接下來，我把電話交回給接線員進行提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our very first question comes from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital Markets.

(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自Lake Street Capital Markets的Rob Brown。

First question is on the pipeline. You talked kind of a robust pipeline. Could you give us some color on how that's developing and what pieces need to fall in place to kind of hit that guidance or that outlook for 2020?

第一個問題是關於銷售管線。你提到管線相當強勁。能否請你提供一些進展情況的說明，以及要達成2020年的指引或展望，還需要哪些環節到位？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Rob. We typically don't disclose the value of the pipeline, but what I would like to share is that the pipeline at the end of 2019 was up 88% compared to the end of 2018. So we've seen a very large opportunity set enter into the lens here in 2019. And a key driver of that, of course, is heavy-duty and medium-duty motive applications. So we're seeing opportunity in China. We're seeing opportunity in Europe. We're seeing opportunity in -- smaller opportunity, to be clear, in North America compared to Europe and China.

當然。謝謝你的問題，Rob。我們通常不會揭露管線的金額，但我想分享的是，2019年底的管線相較2018年底增加了88%。因此在2019年，我們看到非常龐大的機會集合進入視野。其中一個關鍵驅動因素，當然是重型與中型的車用動力應用。我們在中國看到機會。我們在歐洲看到機會。我們也在北美看到機會——但要說清楚，相較於歐洲與中國，北美的機會較小。

And one of the great things is we've had -- our average opportunity win rate continues to be very high. So we're very pleased with the way the sales pipeline is shaping up to support $120 million -- $110 million order book as we start the year.

而其中一個很棒的地方是，我們的平均機會案贏單率仍然非常高。因此，我們對銷售管線的成形方式感到非常滿意，足以支撐我們在年初所擁有的1.20億美元——1.10億美元訂單簿。

Okay. That's great color. And then in terms of the China JV, you said sort of midyear ramping. How is your sort of view into that at this point in terms of starting to ship MEAs and how that turns on throughout the year and into next year?

好的。這些說明很有幫助。接著關於中國合資公司（JV），你提到大約年中開始爬坡。就你目前的觀察，MEA開始出貨的時點如何？以及今年內到明年整體啟動的節奏會是怎樣？

Yes, it's Tony here. Yes. So the -- as we talk -- look at our China JV, you'll recall we have been shipping and are shipping in the first quarter the balance of those kits that we announced, the $44 million of kits, so those continue in Q1 and are being shipped, and we accept -- and will be assembled and we expect delivered through the year. The MEAs, we announced a purchase order in late 2019, yes, '19, for about $19 million. Those MEAs are likely to be shipped in the second half of the year, and we do expect those to be shipped as planned at the moment. So we don't anticipate any change in our -- at this point in terms of our order deliveries and in terms of the JV's assembly and shipment. Obviously, we'll have more to comment each quarter on that, but at the moment, we're continuing to ship as expected.

是的，我是Tony。是的。所以——談到我們的中國合資公司，你會記得我們已經在出貨，並且在第一季持續出貨我們先前公告的那批套件（kits），也就是4,400萬美元的套件，因此這些在第一季仍在出貨；我們預期會完成組裝，並在全年陸續交付。至於MEA，我們在2019年末（是的，2019年）公告了一筆約1,900萬美元的採購訂單。這些MEA很可能在下半年出貨，而目前我們也預期將按計畫出貨。因此，就目前而言，我們不預期在訂單交付，以及合資公司組裝與出貨方面會有任何變動。當然，我們每一季都會有更多可評論的內容，但就目前來看，我們仍按預期持續出貨。

Okay, good. And then my last question is really more of a big picture question in terms of thoughts on how the penetration rate of fuel cell vehicles develops over time. And I know it's a little hard to predict, but the marketplace is throwing around a lot of numbers. But what's sort of your view on how the ramp rate happens? And is it really -- you talked about it going up in 2025. But what are some of the drivers there? How long should it take to get product on the road? And how do you see the penetration rates developing maybe longer term?

好的，很好。最後一個問題比較偏宏觀：你們如何看待燃料電池車的滲透率隨時間的發展？我知道這有點難以預測，但市場上有很多不同的數字。那你們對於爬坡速度的看法是什麼？以及是否真的——你提到在2025年會上升。其中有哪些驅動因素？產品上路通常需要多久？你們如何看待滲透率在更長期的發展？

So I think it's going to vary, Rob, by market segments. So we're further along in certain markets and earlier in some markets. So as an illustrative example, we've had demonstration projects on the bus side for many years, and we've proven out things like reliability and service infrastructure. And so there, it's really not about technical readiness levels. It's really about driving cost down and showing value proposition. So I would say you'll -- we had a pretty good order inflow in 2019 on the bus side. You'll see more of that in 2020. I think we'll see very strong order intake on the bus side in 2020.

我認為這會因市場區隔而異，Rob。我們在某些市場走得更前面，在一些市場則還較早期。舉例來說，在巴士領域我們已經做了多年的示範專案，並驗證了可靠性與服務基礎設施等要素。因此在那裡，重點其實不在技術成熟度（technical readiness levels）。而是在於降低成本並展現價值主張。所以我會說——我們在2019年巴士端的訂單流入相當不錯。你會在2020年看到更多。我認為2020年巴士端的接單將非常強勁。

On the commercial truck market, this is going to take a little bit longer. But those requirements to reduce emissions by 15% by 2025 and 30% by 2030, those are like tomorrow, really, when you look at the requirements to effectively establish platforms, validate packaging, do testing. So I think there will be a lot of work done over the next 12 to 24 months on the commercial vehicle side. We have some demonstration projects underway today. Expect a lot more on the demonstration side in Europe and in North America. We're already seeing volumes hit in China. And we're pretty excited about some of the things we're seeing with the Weichai-Ballard joint venture in terms of opportunities beyond the 2,000 fuel cell vehicle program, including on the -- not just the bus market but the truck market.

在商用卡車市場方面，這會需要更長一些時間。但到2025年減排15%、到2030年減排30%的要求，從建立平台、驗證整合封裝、進行測試等需求來看，幾乎就是明天要達成的事。因此我認為未來12到24個月，商用車領域會有大量工作要做。我們目前已有一些示範專案在進行中。預期在歐洲與北美會有更多示範專案。我們已經看到在中國開始出現量產規模。而且我們對於濰柴—Ballard合資公司所看到的一些進展感到相當振奮，機會不僅限於2,000輛燃料電池車計畫，還包括——不只是巴士市場，也包括卡車市場。

As you move to rail, I believe the value proposition for rail today is in the money. Fuel cells are already a competitive solution for regional trains, outcompeting electric catenary trains already where there's -- there isn't an existing catenary line infrastructure. So I think trains, fuel cell trains are already best suited for the longer, relatively low-frequency routes. And these routes typically have a short downtime so you got to turn quickly to return. And so there isn't a lot of time for opportunity recharging. So we've looked at a number of use cases in rail and we see lots of opportunity there. And we're very excited not just about the tram line that's come up as a very good validation point for us in China but the work we're doing with Siemens. And I think you'll see some additional progress on the rail market in 2020 and 2021.

再談到鐵道，我相信就目前而言，鐵道的價值主張已經具備經濟性。燃料電池對區域列車已是具競爭力的解決方案；在沒有既有架空電纜（catenary）線路基礎設施的地方，燃料電池列車已能勝過電氣化架空線列車。因此我認為燃料電池列車已非常適合較長距離、班次相對較低的路線。而這些路線通常停站時間短，需要快速折返。因此沒有太多時間進行充電。我們已在鐵道領域研究了多種使用情境，並看到許多機會。我們不僅對中國出現的電車（tram）路線、作為我們很好的驗證點感到振奮，也對我們與西門子（Siemens）合作所做的工作感到振奮。我認為你將在2020年與2021年看到鐵道市場的更多進展。

That is a relatively smaller market compared to bus and truck, but I think it's going to be a market that surprises to the upside. In terms of when that starts to see some scaling, I think 2023, 2024, you'll start to see a pretty significant penetration on the rail market moving to perhaps 30%, 40% in Europe by 2030. So we're very excited about the rail market.

相較於巴士與卡車，那是一個相對較小的市場，但我認為它將會是一個表現超出預期、令人驚喜的市場。就何時開始出現規模化而言，我認為在 2023、2024 年，你將開始看到鐵路市場相當顯著的滲透率提升，並在 2030 年前於歐洲可能提升至 30%、40%。因此，我們對鐵路市場感到非常振奮。

And then like train, I expect ferries to surprise to the upside as well. The interest level in marine applications, not just ferries, but marine applications, has been surprising, and there are a lot of activity underway that hasn't even hit the sales pipeline yet. So we're pretty excited about the opportunity longer term for marine. Just looking at the different market segments there, there are segments where the only way, the only way to decarbonize will be hydrogen fuel cells, given the use cases and the attributes that you see in the duty cycles.

接著就像火車一樣，我也預期渡輪同樣會有超出預期的上行驚喜。海事應用的興趣程度——不僅是渡輪，而是整體海事應用——一直令人意外，而且目前有許多正在進行的活動甚至尚未進入銷售管線。因此，從長期來看，我們對海事領域的機會感到相當興奮。僅就那裡不同的市場區隔來看，基於使用情境與你在運行工況（duty cycles）中看到的特性，有些區隔要去碳化的唯一方式——唯一方式——將是氫燃料電池。

So we're excited about all 4 of those markets. I think as you look at the passenger car market, there's 18,000 cars out there today. That's a lot more than there were 3 years ago, of course, but relative modest market share in the global car park. So what we do see though is longer term, particularly as hydrogen is deployed on the heavy-duty motive use cases and used to decarbonize industrial applications and the cost of hydrogen is coming down, at the same time, those technology trends, the ACES or CASE trends of autonomy, connectivity, electrification, shared mobility, will drive vehicles to higher utilization.

所以我們對這四個市場都感到興奮。我想當你看乘用車市場時，目前外面大約有 18,000 輛車。當然，這比 3 年前多得多，但相對於全球汽車保有量而言，市占仍然相當有限。不過我們確實看到的是，長期而言，特別是當氫能在重型動力使用情境中部署、並用於工業應用去碳化且氫氣成本下降的同時，那些技術趨勢——ACES 或 CASE 趨勢：自動化、連網、電動化、共享移動——將推動車輛走向更高的使用率。

I think what surprised many people in the McKinsey report was the fact that in those 9 applications where fuel cells outperformed not just battery electric but internal combustion engines, they included taxis and large SUVs. So there's a very clear value proposition in the long term in the passenger vehicle market. And we think urban fleets that are focused on high utilization, hydrogen is going to play a very key opportunity there. I do think that, that penetration rate will take into the later 2020s, into 2030 before we'll see the passenger market scale with any material market share that we've seen from, say, battery electric in the last year.

我認為麥肯錫報告中讓許多人感到意外的是，在燃料電池表現優於不僅是純電電池車、也優於內燃機的那 9 項應用中，竟然包含計程車與大型 SUV。因此，長期來看，在乘用車市場有非常清晰的價值主張。我們認為，聚焦高使用率的都會車隊，氫能將在其中扮演非常關鍵的機會。我也確實認為，在我們看到乘用車市場以任何具實質意義的市占規模化之前——相較於例如純電在過去一年所呈現的情況——那個滲透率要到 2020 年代後期、進入 2030 年才會出現。

Our next question comes from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright.

我們的下一個問題來自 H.C. Wainwright 的 Amit Dayal。

Randy, in the context of the policy overview provided and industry sort of developments that are taking place, this 25% to 30% revenue growth annually, should we assume this would be a little bit on the lower end of what potentially could transpire for you in the next few years?

Randy，在你所提供的政策概覽以及產業正在發生的各種發展背景下，這個每年 25% 到 30% 的營收成長，我們是否應該假設這會是你們未來幾年可能發生情況中偏低的一端？

Yes. I think that would be a very conservative estimate, what we would see in the next number of years. I do think that once you get past the 2023 time frame, the growth rate is very steep. So we'll see a lot of great, I think, high -- relative to most industries but also potentially relative to some of the peer group companies, I think we're going to enjoy very high market share in the heavy-duty motive use cases as they start to scale. We're seeing a lot of activity that suggests very high growth rates as we move to 2021, 2022 as well.

是的。我認為那會是我們在未來幾年所看到的非常保守的估計。我確實認為，一旦你跨過 2023 這個時間點之後，成長率會非常陡峭。因此我們將看到很多很棒的成果；我認為相較於多數產業、也可能相較於一些同業公司，我們將在重型動力使用情境開始規模化時享有非常高的市占率。我們也看到許多活動顯示，隨著我們邁向 2021、2022 年，同樣會出現非常高的成長率。

Okay. And then with respect to the facility coming up in China with Weichai, can you remind us what level of production or revenues that facility could support at managed utilization levels of the plant capacity?

好的。接著關於你們與濰柴在中國即將啟用的設施，你能提醒我們，在工廠產能以受控的利用率水準運作時，該設施可支援的產量或營收規模大概是多少嗎？

Sure. So just to give you some context on where we are, substantially, most of the construction has been completed already. There's still some additional final work to be done. There have been, as you'd expect, some modest -- couple of week delay on some of that activity in China. But staffing levels have resumed there. When you look at what we see going forward, we see the joint venture module and stack assembly being commissioned. A lot of the equipment has arrived at the site, some of it's still arriving. We'll continue to qualify that equipment, get it operational and start production.

當然。先提供一些我們目前進度的背景：基本上，大部分的建設已經完成。仍有一些額外的收尾工作需要完成。如你所預期，在中國那邊的部分活動確實出現了一些小幅——大約幾週——的延遲。但那裡的人員配置水準已經恢復。展望未來，我們看到合資公司的模組與電堆組裝將進入試車／投產（commissioning）。許多設備已經運抵現場，也有一些仍在運送途中。我們會持續對這些設備進行驗證，使其投入運作並開始生產。

What we see is, like you see in many China facilities, overcapacity was built and contemplated at the start. So we will have production capacity capability of about 20,000 fuel cell modules, and that could be anywhere from 10,000 to 20,000 vehicles depending on what type of vehicles we're looking at. So I think we're going to see, as we move into 2021 and 2022, high utilization rates in that facility. But I think you can think about it as a 20,000-vehicle assembly operation, both for stacks and modules. And there's lots of opportunity to scale that in terms of going to third shifts and going to increasing capacity that we already have built in.

我們看到的是，就像你在許多中國工廠所見，起初就建置並規劃了超額產能。因此我們將具備約 20,000 套燃料電池模組的產能，依我們所看的車型不同，這可能對應 10,000 到 20,000 輛車。所以我認為，隨著我們進入 2021 與 2022 年，該設施將會有很高的產能利用率。但你可以把它視為一個 20,000 輛車規模的組裝作業，涵蓋電堆與模組。而且在擴產方面有很多機會，例如增加到第三班次，以及提升我們已經預先建置的產能。

Yes, that's impressive. And then just moving on to sort of the competitive environment, right? With all these positives taking place in the industry now. Today, there are only a handful of ways to play or participate in the growth in this space. But I'm sure competition is coming. Could you give listeners some sense of how you are in a position to protect your moat and maintain your market share with new competition potentially coming in?

是的，這很令人印象深刻。接著談到競爭環境，對吧？在產業現在出現這麼多正面因素的情況下。目前，能夠參與這個領域成長的方式其實只有少數幾種。但我相信競爭一定會到來。你能否讓聽眾了解一下，面對可能進入的新競爭者，你們如何處於能夠保護護城河並維持市占的有利位置？

Sure. Yes. You mentioned that capacity was impressive. Just keep in mind, Weichai doesn't do anything small. They're a very impressive organization and the scale of their business -- last year, I think they had now over 1 million diesel engines in production, so very large-scale operation and plan to do the same here.

當然。是的。你提到產能令人印象深刻。請記住，濰柴做事從來不小。他們是一個非常令人印象深刻的組織，其業務規模——去年我想他們的柴油引擎產量已超過 100 萬具——因此是非常大規模的營運，並計畫在這裡也做同樣的事。

Yes. I mean I think we're in a very strong position today in the heavy- and medium-duty motive use cases. When you look at the 30 million kilometers of in-revenue service in those markets already enough to circle the globe 750 times, no one is close in terms of those type of metrics at this stage. We're on our eighth generation of engine, our 13th generation of stack, so there's a lot of learning that's gone in on the experience from the field coming back into our product development and technology development aspects.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們目前在重型與中型動力使用情境上處於非常強勢的位置。當你看我們在那些市場中已累積 3,000 萬公里的營運載客／載貨（in-revenue）服務里程——足以繞地球 750 圈——就這類指標而言，在這個階段沒有人能接近。我們已經是第八代引擎、第十三代電堆，因此從現場回饋到我們產品開發與技術開發面向，累積了大量學習。

Our brand is very strong in the industry. And when you look at the products and you look at the performance, whether it's durability, which -- now seeing in the field units that are over 38,000 hours of durability, most of the competitors that we're just seeing entering the heavy- and medium-duty motive market may have been in smaller applications or may have been looking at the passenger car market traditionally with a durability target of 5,000 hours. So we feel like we have a significant advantage on field experience and from a technology front on durability. So we've done a lot of design work that's improved the FCmove module in terms of reduction of component count, in terms of power density improvements, weights, volume, et cetera. And we feel like we're in a very good position.

我們的品牌在產業中非常強。而當你看產品與性能時，不論是耐久性——我們現在在現場看到的機組耐久性已超過 38,000 小時——多數我們看到剛進入重型與中型動力市場的競爭者，可能過去是在較小型的應用，或傳統上著眼於乘用車市場，其耐久性目標為 5,000 小時。因此我們覺得，在現場經驗與耐久性技術面向上，我們具有顯著優勢。我們也做了大量設計工作，改善 FCmove 模組，包括降低零組件數量、提升功率密度、重量、體積等等。我們覺得我們處於非常有利的位置。

Now that being said, a lot of new entrants coming to the market that have significant resources. You've got Toyota and Hyundai, Cummins as examples and a lot of new entrants, startups as well that are moving into the market.

話雖如此，市場上也有許多具備雄厚資源的新進者。例如你有 Toyota 和 Hyundai、Cummins，另外也有許多新進者與新創公司正在進入市場。

So it's not surprising when you see a high-growth market, to see new players come to the market. We feel we're in a very good position. And of course, our job every day is to continue to offer value to the customers, improve our products, move down our cost and provide a very strong customer experience, which is something we're highly focused on.

因此，當你看到一個高成長市場時，看到新進業者進入市場並不令人意外。我們覺得自己處於非常有利的位置。當然，我們每天的工作就是持續為客戶創造價值、改善我們的產品、降低成本，並提供非常強的客戶體驗，這也是我們高度聚焦的重點。

You very -- almost all of the customers that we work with, we keep. We're very good at making sure that the experience is a very lasting experience for the customer. So I think our current market share is very high in North America and in Europe, very strong in China as well. And I believe in going forward in China, we're very well positioned with Weichai in terms of their design capabilities, their supply chain muscle and their end market relationships. So we feel very confident in our current positioning. And it's going to take sustained investment over the next couple of years to make sure we enjoy the high market share that we're positioned to grab.

你會看到——我們合作的幾乎所有客戶，我們都能留住。我們非常擅長確保客戶的體驗能夠長期且持續。所以我認為我們目前在北美與歐洲的市占率非常高，在中國也同樣很強。而且我相信，展望未來在中國市場，憑藉濰柴在設計能力、供應鏈實力以及終端市場關係方面的優勢，我們的布局非常到位。因此我們對目前的定位非常有信心。而且在接下來幾年需要持續投資，才能確保我們能享有我們有機會取得的高市占率。

Our next question comes from Craig Irwin with Roth Capital Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Roth Capital Partners 的 Craig Irwin。

So Randy, just a clarification on the 2 delivery contracts with Weichai, right? Your $44 million where you were delivering parts, kitchen modules and then the $19 million, I guess, mid-December, you announced you'd be making 2020 deliveries. Can you confirm that the $44 million is delivered directly to Weichai and not to the joint venture or am I reading that wrong? And then I'm guessing that the MEAs obviously are delivered to the joint venture.

Randy，我想就與濰柴的兩份交付合約做個釐清，好嗎？你們的 4,400 萬美元是交付零件、廚房模組（kitchen modules），然後 1,900 萬美元那筆，我想是在 12 月中旬，你們宣布將在 2020 年交付。你能否確認 4,400 萬美元那筆是直接交付給濰柴，而不是交付給合資公司？還是我理解錯了？然後我猜 MEA 顯然是交付給合資公司。

Craig, it's Tony here. Let me handle that one. So yes, just again to remind, that was a $44 million order that we announced last May. Those shipments of modules and kits are directly to the joint venture, and then those will be assembled by the joint venture and on sold largely to Weichai. Those are -- Ballard is selling to the joint venture. They're being assembled and then ultimately sold to Weichai. And just as you'll recall on that, we booked 51% of the revenue when we sell those to the joint venture. And then the other 49% we recognize as the JV sells those on to Weichai. As far as the MEAs go, those are direct sales -- as you pointed out, those are direct sales to the Weichai-Ballard joint venture.

Craig，我是 Tony。我來回答這題。是的，再提醒一次，那是我們去年 5 月宣布的一筆 4,400 萬美元訂單。那些模組與套件（kits）的出貨是直接交付給合資公司，接著由合資公司組裝，並且大多再轉售給濰柴。也就是——Ballard 是賣給合資公司。它們被組裝後，最終再賣給濰柴。而且如你所記得的，當我們賣給合資公司時，我們認列 51% 的營收。另外 49% 則在合資公司將其轉售給濰柴時再予以認列。至於 MEA，如你所指出的，那是直接銷售——也就是直接銷售給濰柴-Ballard 合資公司。

Okay, excellent. The second thing is COVID-19 is a difficult subject, right? Our hearts and prayers go out to the people of China as they deal with this. And now we're all dealing with it globally. Can you maybe walk us through the logic of not including an impact from COVID-19 in the guidance? Those of us that follow the Chinese market know that February auto sales were down 80% year-over-year. Is there anything that allows you the visibility where you're not going to see that kind of weight impact you over the next couple of months and also in February as the Chinese are working through the challenges of this epidemic?

好的，很好。第二點，COVID-19 是個艱難的議題，對吧？我們的心與祈禱與中國人民同在，願他們能度過這段時期。而現在我們也在全球共同面對。你能否帶我們了解一下，為什麼在財測指引中沒有納入 COVID-19 的影響的邏輯？我們這些追蹤中國市場的人都知道，2 月汽車銷售年減 80%。是否有任何因素讓你們能見度足夠，認為未來幾個月（以及 2 月）不會對你們造成那種程度的負面影響，當中國正在應對這場疫情的挑戰時？

Craig, it's Randy. Thanks for the question. So I think there's a couple of points to keep in mind, is one is that where our joint venture is in its development, right? So we're not actually in production. So production of the joint venture isn't being disrupted. Where we have had a couple of week delay or actually 2-month delay really is in completing the construction. And so -- but Weichai is in Shandong province. The joint venture is in Shandong province. It's not had the same impact from an operational perspective, we'll get to supply chain in a minute, as have had some other provinces like Hubei province obviously.

Craig，我是 Randy。謝謝你的問題。我想有幾點需要記住，第一是我們合資公司目前所處的發展階段，對吧？我們其實還沒有進入量產。因此合資公司的生產並沒有受到干擾。我們確實遇到幾週的延遲——其實更像是 2 個月的延遲——主要是在完成建設方面。另外——濰柴在山東省。合資公司也在山東省。從營運角度來看，它受到的影響不像其他一些省份那麼大——供應鏈我們等一下再談——例如顯然受影響更大的湖北省。

So what we've seen is that Weichai and the joint venture are actually at very high staffing levels and have been for a couple of weeks now. So from a joint venture perspective and a staffing perspective, I think activity levels have resumed. There's been temporary disruption as a result of COVID-19 activities in China.

所以我們看到的是，濰柴與合資公司其實已經在相當高的到崗率（staffing levels）運作，而且已經維持了幾週。因此從合資公司與人力配置的角度來看，我認為活動水準已經恢復。在中國，因 COVID-19 的相關措施確實造成了短暫的干擾。

On the supply chain, we've done a very deep dive in the supply chain not just with China but with Japan as well. We've looked at all of our suppliers globally and then the sub-suppliers where they might have exposure to in China as well. And there are a few components, some hoses, connectors, some electrical components where we have some exposure. We've got, in some cases, visibility that those suppliers, in most cases, are back up to 60% -- 40%, 50%, 60% run rates currently, understand what the lag times are for them to deliver components. We do have some inventory in some cases. But one thing that we don't do, of course, is provide quarterly guidance. And we provided our outlook for the full year. And I think based on all the parameters we've seen, we should be able to complete the year very consistent with the expectations that we started with in January. I think without COVID-19 issues, perhaps we might have been a little even more aggressive in our outlook. But I think it's the prudent thing to do given some of the risk there.

在供應鏈方面，我們不僅針對中國，也針對日本，對供應鏈做了非常深入的盤點。我們檢視了全球所有供應商，以及他們的次級供應商在中國可能存在的曝險。確實有少數零組件，例如一些軟管、連接器、部分電氣元件，我們有一定程度的曝險。在某些情況下，我們能見度顯示這些供應商多數已恢復到目前約 60%——40%、50%、60% 的產能運轉率，也了解他們交付零組件的延遲時間。而且在某些情況下，我們也有一些庫存。但當然，我們不提供季度指引。我們提供的是全年展望。我認為基於我們看到的所有參數，我們應該能夠完成全年目標，與我們 1 月起初的預期非常一致。我想如果沒有 COVID-19 的問題，也許我們的展望還可以更積極一些。但考量到其中的風險，我認為採取審慎做法是合理的。

Now of course, if this continues throughout 2020, we'll have to come back and see if there's any impact on the supply chain and customers. We're not seeing that today though. So we'll provide another update likely once or twice during the year. But as we sit here today with very good information from channel checks and supply line checks and our partners in China, we feel fairly confident with the outlook we have at this time.

當然，如果這種情況在 2020 年持續下去，我們就必須回頭檢視是否會對供應鏈與客戶造成任何影響。但就目前而言，我們還沒有看到。因此我們可能會在今年再提供一次或兩次更新。但以我們今天所掌握的資訊——來自通路查核、供應線查核，以及我們在中國的合作夥伴——我們對目前的展望相當有信心。

That's very good to hear. That's great. Moving on to cash flow. You did indicate that you expect to still have a very healthy cash position exiting 2020. Obviously, the $75 million ATM is a part of that expectation. But can you maybe update us on your CapEx assumptions and the other major items like your, I guess, $20 million you're going to pay into the Weichai JV this year that will impact the sort of puts and takes on the cash flow?

這真的很令人欣慰。很好。接著談現金流。你確實提到，你們預期在 2020 年結束時仍會維持非常健康的現金部位。顯然，7,500 萬美元的 ATM（按市價發行）是這個預期的一部分。但你能否更新一下你們對資本支出（CapEx）的假設，以及其他主要項目，例如我想是你們今年要投入濰柴合資公司約 2,000 萬美元，這些會如何影響現金流的增減因素？

Sure. Thanks. So just again to kind of reset, so we ended the year with about $147 million of cash, so we come into the year with $147 million. In terms of this year's cash burn, of course, and you alluded to one of them, we have 2 buckets. One is our investment that we're going to be making this year into the Weichai-Ballard JV, and that will be about roughly $25 million or -- $20 million, pardon me, roughly $20 million committed through 2020.

當然可以。謝謝。我再重新梳理一下：我們在年底時大約有 1.47 億美元現金，所以我們是以 1.47 億美元的現金進入今年。就今年的現金消耗（cash burn）而言，當然——你也提到其中一項——我們有兩個部分。其中之一是我們今年將對濰柴-Ballard 合資公司進行的投資，金額大約是 2,500 萬美元——或是 2,000 萬美元，抱歉——在 2020 年內承諾投入約 2,000 萬美元。

And then in addition to that, on the core operating side of the business, yes, we -- we would expect to -- probably in the $20 million to $30 million range for cash burn in our core business this year. CapEx is probably in the range of maybe $10 million -- $10 million of that would be CapEx, a little bit of working capital, and then, of course, we -- as we still have some operating losses. So think about in the aggregate, something in the $50 million to $60 million total burn this year. So that's off the $147 million. Now that doesn't include -- obviously, the $75 million, if we're successful in the ATM, would be additive to our cash balance that we started with. So I think -- hopefully, that helps answer the question.

此外，在業務的核心營運面，是的，我們——我們預期——今年核心業務的現金消耗大概會落在2,000萬至3,000萬美元的區間。資本支出（CapEx）大概在約1,000萬美元左右——其中約1,000萬美元會是資本支出，另外還有一點營運資金，當然，我們——因為仍然有一些營運虧損。所以整體來看，今年總現金消耗大概在5,000萬至6,000萬美元之間。這是從1.47億美元那個基礎上扣除的。另外，這不包含——很明顯地——那7,500萬美元；如果我們在ATM（隨市發行）上成功，那將會在我們期初的現金餘額上額外增加。所以我想——希望這能幫助回答你的問題。

That does. That does. And then last question if I may. In the past, you gave us some pretty good visibility about specific orders potentially out of Europe related to the JIVE opportunity. Are there any specific large orders that you can call out for us that could impact the order book over the next couple of quarters that maybe help us with visibility on the European bus momentum continuing for Ballard?

有的。有的。然後如果可以的話，最後一個問題。過去你們曾就與JIVE機會相關、可能來自歐洲的特定訂單，給了我們相當不錯的能見度。接下來幾個季度，是否有任何你們可以點名的特定大型訂單，可能會影響訂單簿，並且或許能幫助我們更看清Ballard在歐洲巴士動能是否延續？

Yes. Stay tuned. I think you'll see some good order inflow in the next 2 quarters.

是的。敬請期待。我想你會在接下來2個季度看到不錯的訂單流入。

Can you give us a little hint on geography or size?

你能不能在地理區域或規模上給我們一點提示？

I don't want to do that at this time. Europe is the primary region we're talking about here, but there's still final discussions underway, and we don't want to distract from that.

我目前不想這麼做。我們主要談的是歐洲這個區域，但目前仍在進行最後的討論，我們不希望因此分散注意力。

Our next question comes from Mac Whale with Cormark Securities.

下一個問題來自Cormark Securities的Mac Whale。

A couple on the discussion earlier in your comments, Randy, about the various reports that were put out about total cost of ownership and adoption of hydrogen, that type of thing. And I'm wondering, can you benchmark where Ballard stands on, say, product pricing relative to the total cost of ownership projection and where you think you're positioned relative to the industry norm?

針對你先前評論中提到的幾點，Randy，關於各種報告談到總持有成本（TCO）以及氫能採用等議題。我想問的是，你能否以例如產品定價相對於TCO預測來做個基準比較，並談談你認為Ballard相對於產業常態的位置？

Yes. I think when we look at kind of activity levels in the market and quoting levels, I think, first of all, our selling price is consistent with other companies in the market. And I think probably, we have an advantage on cost structure for those in the commercial vehicle market. Our scale relative to others is important. And the -- it's -- I'll call it the advancements we have on the manufacturing side compared to some others who are still very early in moving forward on more advanced manufacturing. I feel like from a bill of materials perspective and labor perspective, we're probably a leader in that area.

可以。我認為，當我們看市場上的活動水準與報價水準時，首先，我們的售價與市場上其他公司的定價是一致的。而且我想，在商用車市場方面，我們在成本結構上可能具有優勢。我們相對於其他人的規模很重要。以及——我會稱之為——我們在製造端的進展，相較於一些仍處於導入更先進製造的非常早期階段的同業。我覺得從物料清單（BOM）與人力成本的角度來看，我們大概是這個領域的領先者。

In terms of the cost-down targets that we see, whether it's in the McKinsey report or Deloitte report, you're looking at a 50% improvement on TCO in some areas. You're looking at some components where you'll see 50%, 60%, 70% cost reduction. We understand those cost curves very well, and we're aligned with those cost curves. We have significant cost reduction coming in the next 24 to 36 months. And we'll be providing pretty good visibility later this year on our cost-down road map. And I'm pretty excited, particularly at the stack level on the cost reduction we see, which I think will be industry leading.

就我們看到的降本目標而言，不論是McKinsey報告或Deloitte報告，你會看到某些領域的TCO改善達50%。你也會看到某些零組件的成本降低50%、60%、70%。我們非常了解這些成本曲線，而且我們的方向與這些成本曲線一致。未來24到36個月我們將有顯著的成本下降。而且我們會在今年稍晚提供相當好的能見度，說明我們的降本路線圖。我也非常振奮，特別是在堆疊（stack）層級我們看到的降本，我認為會是業界領先。

Okay. So -- and all that's in context, I suppose then, of maintaining margins. So can you speak to how you saw margin in the last quarter and over the year versus previous years and what you just said?

好的。所以——我想這一切也都在維持毛利的脈絡下。那你能談談上一季以及全年相較於前幾年，你們的毛利表現，以及這與你剛才所說的關聯嗎？

Yes. I think one of the things that we should understand about gross margin in 2019, in particular, as Tony mentioned, we did add a lot of additional advanced manufacturing capacity capabilities last year, and we'll be finalizing that this year. Just on the MEA side as an illustrative example, by the end of this year, we'll have a 5x production capacity expansion compared to, say, the end of 2018. And so there's a lot of investment that's gone in without the commensurate return on volume yet. And so we do see opportunity for improvements as we see going forward from a production side. Some of our takt times, some of our cost structures we're seeing from production, let alone materials, I think we're going to see some very significant cost down.

可以。我認為我們需要理解2019年的毛利，特別是如Tony提到的，我們去年確實新增了許多先進製造產能與能力，而今年會完成收尾。以MEA端作為示例，到今年底，我們的產能相較於例如2018年底將擴增到5倍。因此在尚未看到相應的出貨量回報之前，就已投入了大量投資。所以我們確實看到，隨著未來生產端的推進，毛利有改善的機會。我們的一些節拍時間（takt time）、一些從生產端看到的成本結構，更不用說材料端，我認為我們將看到非常顯著的降本。

And I do think that as you look at gross margin targets, we are still, as we look at the longer term, looking at the 30% range as a longer-term target for us. And our cost reduction targets must exceed, and I believe they will exceed our ASP reductions year-to-year.

而且我確實認為，當你看毛利目標時，從長期來看，我們仍以約30%的區間作為我們的長期目標。我們的降本目標必須超過——而且我相信也將會超過——我們逐年ASP（平均售價）的下降幅度。

Okay, that's helpful. And having worked in the industry, we all know there's games you can play on catalyst loading to hit performance but you'll be way off on costs. So presumably, that's what you're really saying when you're talking about the competitive situation on your bill of materials.

好的，這很有幫助。而且在這個產業工作過的人都知道，你可以在催化劑負載量上玩一些手法來達到性能，但成本就會差很多。所以我想，你在談你們物料清單的競爭態勢時，真正要表達的就是這個。

Yes, I think when we look at the bill of materials, when you look at all of the bill of materials, whether it's catalysts, ionomers, membranes, GDL, at the MEA and then at the plates at stack level and then moving to balance of plant components, a lot of great work being done in all of these areas that -- as we kind of reveal more of this later this year, I think people will be very excited about, I think, the good work we see going forward on this front.

是的，我想當我們看物料清單時，當你看整個物料清單，不論是催化劑、離聚物（ionomers）、膜（membranes）、GDL，在MEA端，然後到堆疊層級的極板（plates），再延伸到周邊系統（balance of plant）零組件，在所有這些領域都做了很多很棒的工作——當我們在今年稍晚逐步揭露更多內容時，我想大家會非常興奮，因為我們看到在這方面未來會有很好的進展。

Okay. When you talk about programs, some of them have been going -- ongoing for a fair amount of time. And while that's good in one sense because of the -- all the experience you gain from that, sometimes, from an investor point of view, it looks a little disappointing because you don't get a ramp-up in sales. So can you talk about your programming strategy and whether that has changed over the years, so that you can actually put in specs that say, if we hit A, B and C, we get an order? Can you speak to how the industry is changing about how you -- and what you're doing about programming structure?

好的。當你談到專案（programs）時，其中一些已經進行了相當長一段時間。雖然從累積經驗的角度來看這是好事，但有時從投資人的角度看起來會有點令人失望，因為你看不到銷售的爬坡。所以你能談談你們的專案策略，以及多年來是否有所改變，讓你們實際上可以在規格中設定條件，例如如果我們達成A、B、C，就能拿到訂單？你能談談產業在你們如何做——以及你們在專案架構上做了什麼調整——這方面的變化嗎？

Yes. That's a great question, Mac. What's happened historically, if you go back, say, even 5 years ago, maybe we're offering a fuel cell bus for a demonstration project at $1 million, right? And so that's not an attractive value proposition. But it is in the field. It is proving out technology readiness. We're in a quite a different position today as costs have come down, not just on the fuel cell systems, but we've now have powertrain for battery electric vehicles that's being used in these applications. And we now have opportunity for lower-cost green hydrogen as well. And the cost of renewables have come down about 80% in the last decade. So I think that's going to be a key driver moving forward.

可以。這是個很好的問題，Mac。過去歷史上，如果你回頭看，比如甚至5年前，我們可能以100萬美元的價格提供一台燃料電池巴士做示範專案，對吧？所以那不是一個有吸引力的價值主張。但它確實在場域中運行。它在驗證技術成熟度。而今天我們的位置已經很不一樣了，因為成本已經下降，不只是燃料電池系統的成本；我們現在也有用於這些應用的電池電動車動力總成。而且我們也有機會取得更低成本的綠氫。此外，再生能源的成本在過去十年下降了約80%。所以我認為這將會是未來推進的一個關鍵驅動因素。

But the turnaround time in -- whether it's a demonstration program or some testing is a lot shorter going forward than it has been historically. And that's really more about packaging and integration than it is about validating technology performance. And the discussions are more on volume and cost at volume rather than small deployments. So we are seeing a scaling. It's occurring in China. In my opinion, we're starting to see the first signs of that. And I do think we'll see that in the European theater in the next few years as well.

但未來無論是示範計畫或某些測試，其周轉時間都會比過去歷史上短得多。而這其實更多是關於封裝與整合，而不是在驗證技術性能。而討論也更多聚焦在量產時的產量與成本，而非小規模部署。所以我們正在看到規模化。這正在中國發生。以我看來，我們開始看到第一個跡象。而我也確實認為，未來幾年在歐洲市場也會看到同樣的情況。

Yes. Mac, it's Tony. Just to pile on a little bit to Randy, and I think Randy made a comment earlier, I think as we look at the next -- the bus market is, relatively speaking, is the market that we've been investing in long programs, long demonstration. Randy mentioned the truck and marine market as 2 of the next turn of opportunities. Yes. We see those advancing at a much faster pace. And the other one was this ability to leverage the technology because it's fundamentally the investment we've made in the FCmove LCS technology although packaging will be different. We're really leveraging the same technology platform. So those longer lead times to focus on technology, I mean, are also shortening as well. So I think just to pile on to Randy's comment about the pace, the clock, speed and pace about ramping up is going to be dramatically different. And we're also able to, shall we say, reduce our investment because we're leveraging technology rather than have to build new technology.

是的。Mac，我是Tony。我再補充一下Randy的觀點，而且我想Randy先前也提到過：當我們看下一步——相對而言，巴士市場是我們長期投入的市場，包含長週期專案、長期示範。Randy提到卡車與海事市場是下一波的兩個機會。是的。我們看到它們以更快的速度推進。另外一點是能夠槓桿運用這項技術，因為本質上我們在FCmove LCS技術上的投資，雖然封裝會不同，但我們其實是在沿用同一個技術平台。因此，那些需要較長前置時間、用來聚焦技術本身的週期，也正在縮短。所以我想再呼應Randy對速度、時鐘速度與爬坡節奏的評論，提升產能的速度與節奏將會截然不同。而且我們也能夠——可以這麼說——降低投資，因為我們是在槓桿既有技術，而不是必須打造全新技術。

We also -- as you look at those demonstration projects that have occurred historically, they're really now great reference sites. And so we have some real champions on the end market side that are providing valuable references for new customers. The other thing I want to comment on is the rail market. And so we've actually been active for about 3 years now in the rail market in China. And we've learned a lot on codes and standards on structural engineering, shock and vibration, the noise requirements, how to lighten the module for -- achieve some of the weight restrictions that they have. And so a lot of learning that's been, I would say, uniquely learned by Ballard over that period in China.

另外——當你看那些過去歷史上發生的示範專案，它們現在其實已成為很好的參考場域。因此，在終端市場端我們有一些真正的推動者，能為新客戶提供有價值的參考案例。我還想評論一下軌道交通市場。我們其實在中國的軌道交通市場已經活躍了大約3年。我們在法規與標準、結構工程、衝擊與振動、噪音要求，以及如何為了——達成他們的重量限制而讓模組輕量化等方面，學到了很多。所以我會說，在那段期間於中國所累積的許多學習，是Ballard相當獨特的經驗。

We're also starting to see some of that learning, of course, with Siemens in the European market over the last 18 to 24 months in a very active development program, where I think we're seeing very good progress with Siemens on that front. So the rail market, there's a lot of learnings that are behind the scenes haven't been understood perhaps but it does facilitate a much faster market adoption from a technology readiness perspective.

當然，我們也開始看到其中一些學習成果，透過過去18到24個月在歐洲市場與西門子（Siemens）非常積極的開發計畫而展現出來；我認為我們在那方面與西門子取得了非常好的進展。因此，在軌道交通市場，有許多幕後的學習可能未必被充分理解，但它確實能從技術成熟度的角度，促進更快速的市場採用。

Okay. And just the last question is about the passenger car space. Now you continue to work closely with OEMs on that part of the market. Those of us who cover electric vehicles are sort of very excited by a lot of the changes in lithium-ion chemistry and packaging that are happening. I'm wondering, do -- if you could put into context your view on the commerciality of that market, that's performance, total cost of ownership this year, say, versus last year. Is there a change over the year to time line of adoption? And if so, why?

好的。最後一個問題是關於乘用車領域。你們仍持續與OEM在該市場部分密切合作。我們這些追蹤電動車的人，對鋰離子電池化學體系與封裝正在發生的許多變化感到相當興奮。我想請問——如果你能把你對該市場商業化程度的看法放到脈絡中，也就是性能、今年的總持有成本（TCO）相較於去年。採用時程在一年之間是否有變化？如果有，原因是什麼？

Yes. I think there's probably a number of organizations who last year would have highlighted passenger car -- fuel cell market as a key opportunity for them. If you're talking to them this year, it's not that necessarily their enthusiasm for that market has waned, but what's happened is their interest in the heavy and medium-duty market has picked up. And literally, I've been going at conferences in the industry for a very long time. And companies that you would see traditionally talking about the pass car market are now, front and center, talking about the opportunity for commercial trucks and buses, et cetera, again, not because they don't see an opportunity in the passenger car market but because there's now a consolidated view that the value proposition in the nearer term is where you have centralized depot refueling and where you have heavy payload in long range.

是的。我想去年可能有不少組織會把乘用車——燃料電池市場視為他們的關鍵機會。如果你今年去跟他們談，並不一定是他們對那個市場的熱情減退了，而是他們對重型與中型市場的興趣提高了。而且坦白說，我長期參加產業會議。你會看到過去傳統上談乘用車市場的公司，現在反而站在最前面，談商用卡車與巴士等的機會；同樣地，並不是他們看不到乘用車市場的機會，而是現在大家的共識更集中在：短期內的價值主張是在有集中式車隊基地加氫，以及在重載荷、長續航的應用場景。

So I do think the McKinsey report was a bit of a surprise to some people to see how strong fuel cells show up on the passenger car market. But as you look at high utilization, not 1 hour a day, not 100 kilometers or miles per day but, say, 20 hours per day in a taxi fleet or an Uber fleet, we could see the market opportunity for fuel cells becoming more pronounced.

所以我確實認為，McKinsey的報告讓一些人有點意外，因為燃料電池在乘用車市場的表現竟然如此強勢。但當你看高使用率——不是每天1小時、不是每天100公里或英里，而是例如在計程車車隊或Uber車隊中每天20小時——我們可能會看到燃料電池的市場機會變得更為明顯。

I do think it's going to take more time in that market, and this has been the challenge with that industry for a very long time, has been on the ecosystem in terms of hydrogen refueling. But now 400 fueling stations out there, another 200 coming this year, we're starting to see areas where there's sufficient fueling infrastructure for passenger car users to start to have no fueling anxiety. So it's an early position still, and I think battery electric vehicles present a very compelling opportunity, even absent some of the changes you're talking about in battery chemistry. And for the very near term, I think battery electric vehicles will win the dominant share in passenger car electrification.

我確實認為那個市場還需要更多時間，而這也是該產業長期以來的挑戰：氫能補給在生態系方面的建置。但現在外面已有400座加氫站，今年還會再新增200座，我們開始看到某些區域具備足夠的補給基礎設施，讓乘用車用戶開始不再有補給焦慮。所以目前仍屬早期階段，而我認為純電動車（BEV）提供非常有吸引力的機會，即便不考慮你提到的那些電池化學變化。而在非常短期內，我認為純電動車將在乘用車電動化中取得主導市占。

Our next question comes from Jeff Osborne with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自Cowen and Company的Jeff Osborne。

I had a couple of questions on the -- on modeling. How should we think about cadence of revenue through the year? It sounded like kits were going to be strong in Q1 and then the MEAs picking up in Q3. So is 2Q sequentially down? I'm just trying to get a sense of sort of rhythm of revenue as it flows through, through the year relative to the $130 million of guidance.

我有幾個關於——建模方面的問題。我們應該如何看待全年營收的節奏？聽起來套件（kits）在第一季會很強，然後MEA在第三季開始回升。所以第二季是季對季下滑嗎？我只是想掌握一下，與1.3億美元的財測指引相比，全年營收流入的節奏與韻律大概會是怎樣。

Yes. Jeff, Tony here. Yes. As many will recall, we typically have a sort of a 40-60 front end-back end split. I would say this year, it won't be smooth but it will probably be a little bit more balanced quarter-to-quarter. And you're absolutely right. We are still continuing to fulfill those orders to the Weichai JV in Q1. But then we start to see some of that deferred revenue. If you recall, again, on that -- the pickup on the 49% and then the MEA side, I would say at this point, it's -- it won't be completely flat but a little bit more balanced quarter-to-quarter throughout the year as the way I would look at it.

是的。Jeff，我是Tony。是的。如同許多人會記得的，我們通常會有大約40-60的前段/後段分布。我會說今年不會很平滑，但季度之間可能會更均衡一些。而你說得完全正確。我們在第一季仍會持續履行對濰柴合資公司（Weichai JV）的那些訂單。但接著我們會開始看到部分遞延收入。如果你還記得，同樣地，關於——49%的認列提升以及MEA那一端，我會說就目前而言——不會完全持平，但全年各季之間會更均衡一些，這是我看待的方式。

Got it. That's helpful. And then you gave the capacity of the JV and the status of the facility and whatnot. But is there a rough way to think about what that facility or joint venture in aggregate would need to be to be breakeven?

了解。這很有幫助。另外，你提到了合資公司的產能、廠房狀態等等。但有沒有一個大致的方式可以思考：那個廠房或合資企業整體需要達到什麼規模才能損益兩平？

Yes. So the -- Weichai will be very sensitive about us talking about the financials of the joint venture so I won't go to detail on that. What I would say is that there's an expectation for that joint venture to be breakeven in a relatively early part of its development cycle.

是的。所以——濰柴會對我們談論合資公司的財務非常敏感，因此我不會深入細節。我能說的是，大家預期該合資公司會在其發展週期相對早期的階段就達到損益兩平。

Yes. Jeff, we had -- I didn't mention it in the script but it is mentioned in, I believe, the press release and the MD&A. We do expect for 2020 this year that we still will see losses from our China joint venture, the bulk of it coming from the JV, Ballard JV -- Weichai-Ballard JV, pardon me, probably in the $10 million to $15 million of EBITDA loss this year. That's the one line on our income statement contribution from minority interest. So we expect this year will continue to be an investment year as it ramps up. And then as we think about 2021, it starts to look closer to breakeven going into next year.

是的。Jeff，我們之前——我在講稿裡沒有提到，但我相信在新聞稿以及 MD&A 中有提及。我們確實預期 2020 年今年仍會看到來自中國合資企業的虧損，其中大部分來自該合資企業——Ballard 合資企業——Weichai-Ballard 合資企業，不好意思，今年的 EBITDA 虧損可能約為 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。那就是我們損益表上「少數股權」貢獻的那一行。因此我們預期今年在其產能爬坡之際仍將是一個投資年。然後當我們展望 2021 年，進入明年時看起來會更接近損益兩平。

Got it. That's helpful. And then the backlog itself that you gave, either the total or the $110 million on the 12-month side, is there any context or flavor you can add in terms of geography or application? I assume it's largely China, more than half, I think you've indicated in the past, but I just wasn't sure if there's any sort of context you can add about the backlog itself.

了解。這很有幫助。接著關於你提供的在手訂單（backlog），不論是總額或 12 個月那邊的 1.10 億美元，你能否就地理區域或應用面提供一些背景或說明？我猜主要是中國，超過一半，我想你們過去曾指出過，但我不確定你是否能就這個在手訂單本身補充一些脈絡。

Yes, I'd be happy to it. And certainly -- and you're absolutely correct. So for the 12-month order book, particularly, I would say probably maybe about 70% -- maybe 60%, 60% maybe -- 60% to 70% would be coming from China and that really is 2 things: One is those product deliveries I've mentioned a couple of times to the Weichai-Ballard JV; and then, of course, we're continuing to fulfill the multiyear Technology Solutions technology transfer with the joint venture. So those would be the 2 largest ones. We have not, by the way, included in our order book any MEA sales to the Synergy joint venture. I didn't mention that earlier but that's not in the order book. So that does present certainly some upside not only to the order book but to our revenue forecast for the year, but call it about 60% to 70% China. And then the bulk of the rest of it is in Europe, both the Audi -- the continuation on the Audi TS but as well as some fairly material deliveries into the European bus market, and particularly, Randy had mentioned earlier, some 60, 70 orders -- 67 orders that we've taken -- purchase orders last year. We start to see some of those be delivered. They're in the order book, and we'll start to see some delivered. So I'd kind of split it that way by and large. And then it's not that dissimilar in the backlog as well. I don't know, Randy, did you want to supplement?

可以，我很樂意說明。而且當然——你說得完全正確。就 12 個月的訂單簿（order book）而言，尤其是，我會說大概約 70%——也許 60%，60% 可能——60% 到 70% 會來自中國，而這主要是兩件事：第一是我已經提過幾次的那些向 Weichai-Ballard 合資企業的產品交付；第二，當然，我們也持續履行與該合資企業多年期的 Technology Solutions 技術移轉。所以這兩項會是最大的。順帶一提，我們並未將任何對 Synergy 合資企業的 MEA 銷售納入我們的訂單簿。我先前沒有提到，但那不在訂單簿裡。因此這確實帶來一定的上行空間，不僅對訂單簿，也對我們今年的營收預測；但大致可說約 60% 到 70% 來自中國。其餘大部分在歐洲，包括 Audi——Audi TS 的延續，以及一些相當可觀的歐洲巴士市場交付，特別是 Randy 先前提到的，我們去年拿到約 60、70 筆訂單——我們取得了 67 筆採購訂單。我們開始看到其中一些進入交付。它們在訂單簿中，我們也會開始看到部分交付。所以大致上我會這樣分。在手訂單（backlog）也沒有太大不同。Randy，你想補充嗎？

Yes. I mean as you move from the backlog and look at the sales pipeline, Jeff, you actually see a very interesting shift where there's a very high concentration or opportunity set in Europe. So I think the sales pipeline is approaching $0.5 billion at this point, and we're seeing a very high portion coming from Europe.

是的。我的意思是，當你從在手訂單往前看銷售管線（sales pipeline）時，Jeff，你其實會看到一個非常有趣的轉變：歐洲的集中度或機會集合非常高。所以我認為目前銷售管線接近 5 億美元，而我們看到其中很高的比例來自歐洲。

That's good to hear. Maybe the last one for you, Randy, is as you think about -- you talked about the cadence of revenue. How should we think about things you could control like OpEx, in particular, and then the revenue mix and its resulting impact on gross margins? You talked about the MEA underutilization. I assume that's still the case for the bulk of the year. But do you envision sort of a mid-20s gross margin capability this year or no?

很高興聽到。也許最後一題給你，Randy，是當你思考——你談到營收的節奏（cadence）。我們應該如何看待你們可控的事項，例如營業費用（OpEx），特別是，以及營收組合及其對毛利率的影響？你提到 MEA 產能利用不足。我假設今年大部分時間仍是如此。但你是否認為今年有達到 20% 中段毛利率的能力，還是沒有？

Yes. Tony here. I would say the investment we made that I referred to in our capacity -- and we are again continuing to invest this year just to complete the advanced manufacturing. We'll see a modest -- with the outlook we have for revenue increase, the bulk of that's coming from product sales this year. So that'll start to -- you'll start to see some absorption of that CapEx investment this year. But I would say our outlook for margin is, I'll say, a modest uptick in gross margin in 2020. I think that'll start -- you'll start to see that improve more significantly going into 2021 and 2022 as we continue to move more product on that and our CapEx will be fully invested. So I think that's how I would see margin.

是的。我是 Tony。我會說，我先前提到我們在產能方面所做的投資——而且我們今年仍持續投資，以完成先進製造。隨著我們對營收成長的展望，今年增加的主要部分來自產品銷售。因此你會開始在今年看到對那筆資本支出（CapEx）投資的部分吸收。但我會說，我們對 2020 年毛利率的展望是小幅上升。我認為在 2021 與 2022 年，隨著我們持續推動更多產品出貨且 CapEx 投資完成，你會看到更顯著的改善。所以我對毛利率的看法大概是這樣。

And then, of course, on top of that, capacity utilization, of course, is the implementation of the cost -- significant cost reductions that we anticipate on the product side that Randy has talked about a couple of times. Those will start to manifest themselves more meaningfully in 2021 and 2022. So modest uptick potentially this year, but I think I'd be thinking about 2022, '23, we start to move back to those targets that we have talked about earlier.

此外，當然，除了產能利用率之外，還有在產品端我們預期的——Randy 已經提過幾次的——顯著成本降低的落實。這些將在 2021 與 2022 年更有意義地顯現。所以今年可能小幅上升，但我會把重點放在 2022、2023 年，我們開始回到先前談過的那些目標。

Just quickly on the OpEx side, we are looking for a reasonably significant bump-up in OpEx this year off of '18. And again, a lot of that's the hiring we made through the year, the run rate issue. So I think we were a little about $13 million in Q4, perhaps not quite that high a run rate but that starts to -- probably approximates -- kind of starts to look more in that, I'll say -- roughly that run rate in 2020, maybe a little less than that but think about that on the OpEx side. So that's all I would look at those 2 key items.

再快速談一下 OpEx 方面，我們預期今年的 OpEx 相較於 '18 會有相當顯著的上升。同樣地，其中很大一部分是我們在一年中所做的招募，以及執行率（run rate）因素。所以我想我們在第四季大約是 1,300 萬美元，可能不一定會維持那麼高的執行率，但在 2020 年會開始——大概接近——我會說大致接近那個執行率，可能略低一些；OpEx 方面可以這樣思考。所以我會關注的就是這兩個關鍵項目。

Last one I had is just there were several questions that you sort of indicated that you would have more detail later this year. Are you planning an Analyst Day? Or are you waiting for some kind of technology validation or on cost in particular to open a kimono around cost reduction targets and systems? It was just unclear as you were sort of punting on a few questions.

我最後一題是，你們對好幾個問題似乎表示今年稍晚會提供更多細節。你們是否計畫舉辦分析師日（Analyst Day）？或者你們是在等待某種技術驗證，或特別是在成本方面，才會更透明地揭露成本降低目標與系統？只是你在幾個問題上先暫緩回答，讓人不太確定。

You're very prescient. We are considering an Investor and Analyst Day in September.

你很有先見之明。我們正在考慮於 9 月舉辦投資人與分析師日。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Randy MacEwen, the CEO, for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給執行長 Randy MacEwen，請他做結語。

Great. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you again in early May when we'll discuss results for Q1 2020.

很好。感謝各位今天加入我們。我們期待在 5 月初再次與各位交流，屆時我們將討論 2020 年第一季的業績結果。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以掛線。感謝您的參與，祝您有美好的一天。