Booking Holdings Inc (BKNG) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

他們預計 2023 年更多的固定支出將增長約 20%,這與去年的增幅相似。他們預計這些更固定的支出在未來幾年會增長得更慢。

因此,他們預計 2023 年的 EBITDA 將達到創紀錄的水平,同時 EBITDA 利潤率將比 2022 年繼續擴大幾個百分點。Booking Holdings Inc. 公佈了 2022 年第四季度的強勁收益。與此相比,淨收入有所上升到 2021 年第四季度,總預訂量和收入均大幅增長。調整後的 EBITDA 也大幅上升。公司首席執行官 Glenn Fogel 將強勁的業績歸因於他們專注於技術投資和忠誠度計劃。他還指出,第二季度將是最艱難的比較季度,因為預訂量在去年初達到頂峰,但他們希望需求能夠變得更加正常化。該公司的首席財務官 David Goulden 回應了這些觀點,稱他們看到公司的業績有所改善,但現在還為時過早。他還表示,他們專注於現金流和減少債務。展望未來,格倫表示公司專注於改進他們的產品並更好地與合作夥伴合作。他認為人工智能會讓搜索變得更好,但這需要一些時間。就中國出境市場而言,Glenn 指出市場需要一段時間才能恢復,但 Booking Holdings 已做好充分準備,可以利用該市場的機遇。他還指出,該公司專注於在美國獲得市場份額,但 Booking Holdings 也可以在其他地區獲得市場份額。 1 月份,Booking Holdings 的取消率低於 2019 年,住宿預訂窗口完全恢復到 2019 年水平。在某些地區,預訂窗口甚至擴大了。該公司發現預訂的酒店星級組合或入住時間沒有變化,這可能表明儘管平均每日房價 (ADR) 高於 2019 年,但客戶並未降價。

1 月份預訂交易的平均停留時長繼續比 2019 年稍長,這可能表明隨著部分預訂模式差異正常化,間夜增長可能會從這些水平開始放緩。

與去年同期相比,1 月份總預訂量增長 74%,按固定匯率計算增長 83%。總預訂量的 74% 增長比 60% 的間夜增長高 14 個百分點,原因是恆定貨幣 ADR 高出 13%,而且航班預訂的幾個百分點被外匯變動的負面影響部分抵消了 9 個百分點。

Booking Holdings Inc. 預計 2022 年第四季度總預訂量將比 2019 年增長 55%,按固定匯率計算增長 72%。與 2019 年相比,間夜量預計同比增長超過 30%。預計第 4 季度總預訂量的增長速度將比間夜量快約 4 個百分點,原因是較高的固定貨幣 ADR 和持續的航班預訂,部分被外匯抵消.

由於對時間的負面影響較小,預計第一季度收入將佔總預訂量的 10.3%,比 2019 年第一季度提高 40 個基點,部分被商品銷售投資增加和客戶組合增加所抵消。由於直接組合的增加,預計第一季度的營銷費用將略低於 2022 年第一季度。營銷和銷售佔第一季度總預訂量的百分比將略高於 2022 年第一季度,但 Booking Holdings Inc. 預計全年與去年持平。 Booking Holdings Inc. 是一家擁有多個旅遊相關網站和應用程序的公司,包括 Booking.com、Kayak 和 OpenTable。該公司最近召開了財報電話會議,討論其 2022 年第四季度的財務業績。

在電話會議中,公司首席執行官 Glenn Fogel 討論了公司在替代住宿產品方面取得的進展。他指出,該公司發現通過其網站和應用程序預訂的替代住宿間夜數強勁增長,並且他們在改善為供應合作夥伴和旅行者提供的產品方面取得了進展。

Fogel 指出,該公司仍然專注於為客戶打造更好的體驗,並隨著時間的推移提高忠誠度、頻率、支出和直接關係。

第四季度,我們直接在我們平台上預訂的客戶組合達到了有史以來的最高水平。我們的目標是通過多項舉措增加我們的直接組合,包括繼續增強我們的 Genius 忠誠度計劃的好處,進一步構建我們的互聯旅行願景以增加與客戶的互動,以及推動更多客戶下載和使用移動應用程序。

移動應用程序是一個重要的平台,因為它讓我們有更多機會直接與旅行者互動,並且是我們互聯旅行願景的中心。全年我們約有 45% 的間夜是通過應用程序預訂的,比 2019 年高出約 13 個百分點。

根據一家領先的第三方研究公司的數據,到 2022 年,Booking.com 的應用程序仍然是全球下載量第一的 OTA 應用程序,並且首次在美國排名第一。我們將繼續努力增強應用程序體驗,以我們最近在這裡看到的成功為基礎。

我們相信提供有吸引力的住宿價格非常重要,因為我們旨在為旅客提供價值。當我們考慮提供有吸引力的價格時,我們的首要任務是直接與我們的供應合作夥伴合作以獲得有競爭力的價格。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to Booking Holdings Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call. Booking Holdings would like to remind everyone that this call may contain forward-looking statements, which are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

    歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 第四季度和 2022 年全年電話會議。 Booking Holdings 提醒大家,本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款作出的。

  • These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict. Therefore, actual results may differ materially from those expressed, implied or forecasted in any such forward-looking statements.

    這些前瞻性陳述不是對未來業績的保證,並受某些難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設的影響。因此,實際結果可能與任何此類前瞻性陳述中明示、暗示或預測的結果存在重大差異。

  • Expressions of future goals or expectations and similar expressions reflecting something other than historical fact are intended to identify forward-looking statements. For a list of factors that could cause Booking Holdings' actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the safe harbor statements at the end of Booking Holdings' earnings press release as well as Booking Holdings' most recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    未來目標或期望的表達以及反映歷史事實以外的事物的類似表達旨在識別前瞻性陳述。有關可能導致 Booking Holdings 的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中描述的結果存在重大差異的因素列表,請參閱 Booking Holdings 收益新聞稿末尾的安全港聲明以及 Booking Holdings 最最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

  • Unless required by law, Booking Holdings undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A copy of Booking Holdings' earnings press release, together with an accompanying financial and statistical supplement, is available in the For Investors section of Booking Holdings' website, www.bookingholdings.com.

    除非法律要求,否則 Booking Holdings 沒有義務公開更新任何前瞻性陳述,無論是由於新信息、未來事件還是其他原因。可在 Booking Holdings 網站 www.bookingholdings.com 的投資者部分獲取 Booking Holdings 的收益新聞稿副本以及隨附的財務和統計補充資料。

  • And now I'd like to introduce Booking Holdings speakers for this afternoon, Glenn Fogel and David Goulden. Go ahead, gentlemen.

    現在我想介紹一下今天下午 Booking Holdings 的發言人,Glenn Fogel 和 David Goulden。來吧,先生們。

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you. And welcome to Booking Holdings' fourth quarter conference call. I'm joined this afternoon by our CFO, David Goulden. I am pleased to report a strong finish to 2022 as we delivered fourth quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $4 billion and $1.2 billion, respectively, which were both ahead of our previous expectations.

    謝謝。歡迎來到 Booking Holdings 的第四季度電話會議。今天下午,我們的首席財務官戴維·古爾登 (David Goulden) 加入了我的行列。我很高興地報告到 2022 年我們取得了強勁的成績,因為我們實現了第四季度的收入和調整後的 EBITDA 分別約為 40 億美元和 12 億美元,均超出了我們之前的預期。

  • Room night growth versus 2019 of 10% in the fourth quarter improved from 8% growth in Q3. And for the first time, we saw room nights across 4 of our major regions above 2019 levels for the quarter, which was another important milestone for our recovery.

    與 2019 年相比,第四季度的客房間夜增長率為 10%,高於第三季度的 8%。本季度,我們 4 個主要地區的間夜量首次超過 2019 年水平,這是我們復甦的另一個重要里程碑。

  • Room night growth trends have further strengthened in 2023, with January room nights up 26% compared to 2019 or up about 60% year-over-year. We're very encouraged by the continued strength and resiliency of travel demand last year and into the new year, which speaks to consumers' strong desire to travel.

    2023 年間夜量增長趨勢進一步加強,1 月間夜量與 2019 年相比增長 26%,同比增長約 60%。我們對去年和新一年的旅遊需求持續強勁和彈性感到非常鼓舞,這表明消費者對旅遊的強烈渴望。

  • However, as we stated last year, month-on-month trends can be volatile, and we recognize that there is uncertainty regarding the future path of the world's economy. And David will provide further details on our fourth quarter results and on the recent trends we have been seeing in 2023.

    然而,正如我們去年所說,月環比趨勢可能會波動,我們認識到世界經濟未來的道路存在不確定性。 David 將提供有關我們第四季度業績以及我們在 2023 年看到的近期趨勢的更多詳細信息。

  • Looking back at the full year of 2022. I am proud of our company's performance during what was a challenging and very competitive environment. Our customers booked an all-time high of nearly 900 million room nights on our platforms in 2022, which was an improvement of 52% versus 2021 and 6% higher than in 2019.

    回顧 2022 年全年。我為我們公司在充滿挑戰和競爭激烈的環境中的表現感到自豪。 2022 年,我們的客戶在我們的平台上預訂了近 9 億間夜,創歷史新高,與 2021 年相比增長了 52%,與 2019 年相比增長了 6%。

  • Gross bookings of $121 billion exceeded the $100 billion mark for the first time in our history and increased 58% versus 2021 and 26% versus 2019 or 73% and 36% on a constant currency basis. These record levels of room night and gross bookings were achieved despite travel restrictions still in place in many parts of the world at the onset of 2022. And I note that most of Asia did not begin to open until towards the end of the year and Russia's invasion of Ukraine negatively impacted our business.

    1210 億美元的總預訂量在我們的歷史上首次超過 1000 億美元大關,與 2021 年相比增長 58%,與 2019 年相比增長 26%,按固定匯率計算分別增長 73% 和 36%。儘管在 2022 年初世界許多地方仍然實施旅行限制,但仍實現了這些創紀錄的間夜和總預訂量。而且我注意到,亞洲大部分地區直到年底才開始開放,而俄羅斯的入侵烏克蘭對我們的業務產生了負面影響。

  • In terms of our P&L last year, we reached a new revenue record of slightly more than $17 billion, which was 56% higher than 2021 and 13% higher than 2019 or up about 71% and 24% on a constant currency basis, respectively.

    就我們去年的損益而言,我們創下了略高於 170 億美元的新收入記錄,比 2021 年高出 56%,比 2019 年高出 13%,按固定匯率計算分別增長約 71% 和 24%。

  • We achieved this strong top line result while improving our profitability with adjusted EBITDA of $5.3 billion, increasing 82% versus 2021, and margins expanding by 4 percentage points year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was 10% below the 2019 levels. However, on a constant currency basis, it was actually 6% higher after accounting for the FX headwinds we faced in 2022.

    我們實現了這一強勁的營收結果,同時提高了盈利能力,調整後的 EBITDA 為 53 億美元,比 2021 年增長 82%,利潤率同比增長 4 個百分點。調整後的 EBITDA 比 2019 年水平低 10%。然而,在固定匯率的基礎上,考慮到我們在 2022 年面臨的外匯逆風,它實際上高出 6%。

  • I believe these results demonstrate that we are making significant progress against our goal to build a larger and faster-growing business that generates more earning dollars than it did prior to the pandemic. While there is more work to be done to achieve this long-term goal, I am encouraged by the progress we have seen so far.

    我相信這些結果表明,我們正在朝著我們的目標取得重大進展,即建立一個更大、增長更快的業務,產生比大流行之前更多的收入。雖然要實現這一長期目標還有很多工作要做,但我對我們迄今為止所取得的進展感到鼓舞。

  • Regarding our long-term outlook for travel, we are pleased with the positioning of our business and are positive about the future. This, coupled with our strong balance sheet, led us to return $6.5 billion to shareholders during 2022 by purchasing our shares. At year-end, our share count was 8% lower versus the prior year and returning capital to shareholders will remain a high priority for the company going forward. David will provide further thoughts on our approach in his remarks.

    關於我們對旅遊的長期展望,我們對我們的業務定位感到滿意,並對未來持樂觀態度。再加上我們強勁的資產負債表,我們在 2022 年通過購買股票向股東返還了 65 億美元。到年底,我們的股票數量比上一年減少了 8%,向股東返還資本仍然是公司未來的重中之重。 David 將在他的評論中對我們的方法提供進一步的想法。

  • In addition to our strong financial results in 2022, we made meaningful progress against the key strategic priorities that I highlighted on our earnings call 2 years ago. These are expanding payments at Booking.com, building out our connected trip capabilities, and strengthening our position in the U.S. market. Let me address the progress we've made in each of these areas.

    除了我們在 2022 年取得的強勁財務業績外,我們還針對我 2 年前在財報電話會議上強調的關鍵戰略重點取得了有意義的進展。這些正在擴大 Booking.com 的支付,建立我們的互聯旅行能力,並加強我們在美國市場的地位。讓我談談我們在每個領域取得的進展。

  • On payments, in the fourth quarter, we processed 42% of Booking.com's gross bookings on a merchant basis and are pleased with our progress in this area. As mentioned in the past, moving Booking.com's model from agent to merchant drives important benefits for both our supplier partners and our travelers.

    在支付方面,第四季度,我們處理了 42% 的 Booking.com 商戶預訂總額,並對我們在這方面取得的進展感到滿意。正如過去所提到的,將 Booking.com 的模式從代理商轉變為商戶可為我們的供應商合作夥伴和旅行者帶來重要的利益。

  • For our supplier partners, offering a payment solution adds value in several key ways, including providing access to additional traveler demand by enabling alternative payment methods, reducing cancellations, decreasing operational workloads and enabling fraud protection.

    對於我們的供應商合作夥伴,提供支付解決方案可以在幾個關鍵方面增加價值,包括通過啟用替代支付方式、減少取消、減少運營工作量和啟用欺詐保護來滿足額外的旅客需求。

  • For our travelers, Booking.com's platform allows many consumers to pay how they want to pay, and we believe ultimately helps deliver a more seamless and frictionless booking experience.

    對於我們的旅行者,Booking.com 的平台允許許多消費者以他們想要的方式支付,我們相信最終有助於提供更加無縫和無摩擦的預訂體驗。

  • On the connected trip, on our long-term vision is to make booking and experiencing travel easier, more personal and more enjoyable, while delivering better value to our traveler customers and supplier partners. We've expanded our offering into travel verticals other than accommodations with a focus on flights. And in the future, we will work to link relevant travel components together to provide a more seamless and flexible booking and trial experience. We believe that as a result of this initiative and the improved consumer experience, we will drive increases in customer engagement and loyalty to our platform over time.

    在互聯旅行中,我們的長期願景是讓旅行預訂和體驗更輕鬆、更個性化、更愉快,同時為我們的旅行者客戶和供應商合作夥伴提供更好的價值。我們已經將我們的產品擴展到旅遊垂直領域,而不是專注於航班的住宿。未來,我們將努力將相關旅行組件鏈接在一起,以提供更加無縫和靈活的預訂和試用體驗。我們相信,由於這一舉措和消費者體驗的改善,我們將隨著時間的推移推動客戶參與度和對我們平台的忠誠度的提高。

  • We've continued to make progress on further developing our flight offering on Booking.com, which is now available in over 50 countries. This flight offering gives us the ability to help our consumers book another important component of their travel in one place on our platform and allows us to engage with potential customers who choose their flight options early in their travel discovery process.

    我們繼續在進一步開發 Booking.com 上的航班服務方面取得進展,現已在 50 多個國家/地區推出。這一航班服務使我們能夠幫助我們的消費者在我們平台上的一個地方預訂他們旅行的另一個重要組成部分,並使我們能夠與在旅行發現過程中儘早選擇航班選項的潛在客戶互動。

  • We continue to see that over 20% of all of our flight bookers globally are new to Booking.com. We will continue this important work to provide our customers the best possible trip experience we can offer.

    我們繼續看到,全球超過 20% 的航班預訂者是 Booking.com 的新用戶。我們將繼續這項重要工作,為我們的客戶提供我們所能提供的最佳旅行體驗。

  • In the U.S., both our Priceline and Booking.com brands continue to execute well and contributed to U.S. room night growth of almost and gross bookings growth of about 60% in 2022 versus 2019. On our volume and consumer spend basis, we have grown our U.S. business to be meaningfully larger than it was prior to the pandemic. And we believe that our growth rate has outpaced the recovery in the broader market for U.S. accommodations, which means we believe we gained market share.

    在美國,我們的 Priceline 和 Booking.com 品牌繼續表現良好,並為 2022 年美國間夜量增長和總預訂量增長做出了貢獻,與 2019 年相比增長了約 60%。在我們的數量和消費者支出的基礎上,我們已經增加了我們的美國企業的規模將比大流行之前大得多。我們相信我們的增長率已經超過了美國住宿更廣泛市場的複蘇,這意味著我們相信我們獲得了市場份額。

  • At Booking.com, we've taken steps to improve our offering in the U.S. by utilizing marketing to improve awareness of our brand, introducing and ramping up our flight product, scaling adoption of payments and working closely with our combination partners to ensure we are delivering incremental value to them. We are encouraged by our achievements in strengthening our positioning in the U.S., but there is much more work ahead as we continue to execute against this priority over the long term.

    在 Booking.com,我們已採取措施改善我們在美國的服務,方法是利用市場營銷來提高我們品牌的知名度,推出並提升我們的航班產品,擴大支付的採用範圍,並與我們的合併夥伴密切合作以確保我們為他們提供增量價值。我們對我們在加強我們在美國的定位方面取得的成就感到鼓舞,但隨著我們繼續長期執行這一優先事項,還有很多工作要做。

  • In terms of our core combination business, we continue to drive benefits for our traveler customers and for our supply partners. For our supply partners, we strive to be a valuable partner for all accommodation types on our platform by delivering incremental demand and developing products and features to help support their businesses.

    在我們的核心組合業務方面,我們繼續為我們的旅行者客戶和我們的供應合作夥伴帶來利益。對於我們的供應合作夥伴,我們通過提供增量需求和開發產品和功能來幫助支持他們的業務,努力成為我們平台上所有住宿類型的重要合作夥伴。

  • For example, as I mentioned earlier, payments brings an important benefit to our partners. In the area of alternative accommodations, Booking.com alternative accommodation room nights for the full year grew about 56% versus 2021 and about 11% versus 2019, and represented about 30% of Booking.com's total room nights.

    例如,正如我之前提到的,支付給我們的合作夥伴帶來了重要的好處。在替代住宿方面,Booking.com 全年替代住宿間夜量較 2021 年增長約 56%,較 2019 年增長約 11%,約佔 Booking.com 總間夜量的 30%。

  • During the year, we made progress with our alternative accommodation offering for the full spectrum of property types by rolling out an enhanced payment solution for professionals, launching partner liability insurance, introducing a damage policy and piloting request-to-book functionality, which is an important feature for some individual partners.

    在這一年中,我們通過為專業人士推出增強的支付解決方案、推出合作夥伴責任保險、引入損壞政策和試行請求預訂功能,在為各種物業類型提供替代住宿方面取得了進展,這是一個一些個人合作夥伴的重要功能。

  • We have seen improvements in the time to first booking and better retention rates for new partners. At the same time, we are incorporating our alternative accommodation offering in some of our recent brand advertising to help raise awareness, customer awareness of this product.

    我們已經看到首次預訂時間有所改善,新合作夥伴的保留率也有所提高。與此同時,我們正在將我們的替代住宿產品納入我們最近的一些品牌廣告中,以幫助提高對該產品的認知度和客戶認知度。

  • We aim to build on this progress by continuing to improve the product offering to our supply partners and travelers, particularly in the United States. We remain focused on building a better experience for our customers and increasing loyalty, frequency, spend and direct relationships over time.

    我們的目標是在這一進步的基礎上,繼續改進為我們的供應合作夥伴和旅行者提供的產品,尤其是在美國。我們仍然專注於為我們的客戶打造更好的體驗,並隨著時間的推移提高忠誠度、頻率、支出和直接關係。

  • Our mix of customers booking directly on our platforms reached its highest level ever in the fourth quarter. Our goal over time is to further increase our direct mix through several initiatives, including continued efforts to enhance the benefits of our Genius loyalty program, further building out our connected trip vision to increase engagement with our customers and driving more of our customers to download and utilize the mobile app.

    我們直接在我們平台上預訂的客戶組合在第四季度達到了有史以來的最高水平。隨著時間的推移,我們的目標是通過多項舉措進一步增加我們的直接組合,包括繼續努力提高我們的 Genius 忠誠度計劃的好處,進一步構建我們的互聯旅行願景以增加與客戶的互動並推動更多客戶下載和使用移動應用程序。

  • The mobile app is an important platform as it allows us more opportunities to engage directly with travelers. And ultimately, we see it as the center of our connected trip vision. About 45% of our room nights were booked through apps for the year, which is about 13 percentage points higher than in 2019.

    移動應用程序是一個重要的平台,因為它讓我們有更多機會直接與旅行者互動。最終,我們將其視為互聯旅行願景的中心。全年我們約有 45% 的間夜是通過應用程序預訂的,比 2019 年高出約 13 個百分點。

  • For 2022, Booking.com's app remained the #1 downloaded OTA app globally, and for the first time, moved into the #1 position in the U.S. according to one of the leading third-party research firms. We will continue our efforts to enhance the app experience to build on the recent success we have seen here.

    根據一家領先的第三方研究公司的數據,到 2022 年,Booking.com 的應用程序仍然是全球下載量第一的 OTA 應用程序,並且首次在美國排名第一。我們將繼續努力增強應用程序體驗,以我們最近在這裡看到的成功為基礎。

  • We believe providing attractive prices on accommodations is very important as we aim to deliver value to our travelers. Our first priority, as we think about providing attractive prices is to work directly with our supply partners to source competitive rates.

    我們相信提供有吸引力的住宿價格非常重要,因為我們旨在為旅客提供價值。當我們考慮提供有吸引力的價格時,我們的首要任務是直接與我們的供應合作夥伴合作以獲得有競爭力的價格。

  • In addition to sourcing competitive rates directly from our partners, we have built up our ability to selectively offer discounts and incentives at Booking.com over the last few years. This ability to merchandise is another lever that we can now pull as we look to deliver value to our customers when we cannot directly access the most competitive pricing. We have been pleased with the levels of incremental return we have seen in 2022 from merchandising and we'll continue to selectively utilize this tool going forward.

    除了直接從我們的合作夥伴那裡獲得有競爭力的價格外,我們在過去幾年中還建立了在 Booking.com 上有選擇地提供折扣和獎勵的能力。當我們無法直接獲得最具競爭力的價格時,這種商品化能力是我們現在可以利用的另一個槓桿,因為我們希望為客戶提供價值。我們對 2022 年商品銷售的增量回報水平感到滿意,我們將繼續有選擇地利用這一工具。

  • In conclusion, I am encouraged by the progress our teams have made in delivering strong results in 2022, while executing against our key strategic priorities. These initiatives will help us deliver a better offering and experience for our customers and partners, which strengthens both sides of our marketplace. We are as confident as ever about long-term growth of travel and the opportunity ahead for our company.

    總而言之,我對我們的團隊在 2022 年取得強勁成果並執行我們的關鍵戰略重點方面所取得的進展感到鼓舞。這些舉措將幫助我們為客戶和合作夥伴提供更好的產品和體驗,從而加強我們市場的雙方。我們一如既往地對旅遊業的長期增長和我們公司未來的機遇充滿信心。

  • Now before I turn the call over to David, I want to share the news that David has let us know that he plans to retire from his role as CFO in early 2024, after which he will be involved with us for up to 2 more years to help initially with the transition and then with other projects and initiatives as needed. As you can see by this time line, he's not going anywhere for quite some time.

    現在,在我把電話轉給大衛之前,我想分享一個消息,大衛告訴我們他計劃在 2024 年初從首席財務官的職位上退休,之後他將與我們一起工作長達 2 年最初幫助過渡,然後根據需要幫助其他項目和計劃。從這個時間線可以看出,他有很長一段時間不會去任何地方。

  • So now, let me turn the call over to David. David?

    所以現在,讓我把電話轉給大衛。大衛?

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you for those comments, Glenn. And as you said, I'm not going anywhere for some time over the next year in my CFO role, and when involved beyond that, I will remain as focused as ever on continuing to help deliver strong results from the business and creating value for our stakeholders.

    謝謝你的評論,格倫。正如你所說,明年我擔任 CFO 職務的一段時間內不會去任何地方,而且當參與之後的工作時,我將一如既往地專注於繼續幫助實現強勁的業務成果並為我們的利益相關者。

  • Now turning to our results. I'll review our results for the fourth quarter and provide some color on the trends we've seen so far in the first quarter and our thoughts on 2023. All growth rates for 2022 are relative to the comparable period in 2019, unless otherwise indicated. All growth rates for 2023 are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise indicated, but we will be making some references to the comparable periods in 2019 where we think these are helpful. Information regarding reconciliation of non-GAAP results to GAAP results can be found in our earnings release.

    現在轉向我們的結果。我將回顧我們第四季度的業績,並提供我們在第一季度迄今為止看到的趨勢的一些顏色以及我們對 2023 年的看法。除非另有說明,否則 2022 年的所有增長率都是相對於 2019 年同期的.除非另有說明,否則 2023 年的所有增長率均按年計算,但我們將參考 2019 年的可比時期,我們認為這些參考有幫助。有關非 GAAP 結果與 GAAP 結果的對賬信息,請參閱我們的收益發布。

  • Now on to the fourth quarter. We are encouraged to see room night growth of 10% in the fourth quarter, up from 8% room night growth in the third quarter, with the improvement driven by Asia and the U.S.

    現在進入第四季度。我們很高興看到第四季度的間夜增長率從第三季度的 8% 增長到 10%,這得益於亞洲和美國的推動。

  • For the fourth quarter, the U.S. was up more than 35%. Rest of world was at 110%, and Europe and Asia were both up mid-single digits. Q4 was the first quarter of room night growth in Asia versus 2019. Our growth in total room nights on a year-on-year basis increased from 31% in Q3 to 39% in Q4.

    第四季度,美國上漲了 35% 以上。世界其他地區的增長率為 110%,歐洲和亞洲的增長率均為中等個位數。與 2019 年相比,第四季度是亞洲間夜量增長的第一季度。我們的總間夜量同比增長從第三季度的 31% 增加到第四季度的 39%。

  • Our mobile apps represented over 45% of our total room nights in the fourth quarter and about 45% for the full year. We continue to see an increasing mix of our total room nights coming to us through the direct channel. The direct channel increased as a percentage of room nights in the fourth quarter and for the full year relative to 2021 and 2019. The international mix of our total room nights in Q4 was about 48%, which was higher than Q3, but still a few percentage points below Q4 2019.

    我們的移動應用程序佔第四季度總間夜數的 45% 以上,全年約佔 45%。我們繼續看到我們通過直接渠道獲得的總間夜數越來越多。與 2021 年和 2019 年相比,直接渠道在第四季度和全年的間夜百分比有所增加。我們在第四季度的總間夜的國際組合約為 48%,高於第三季度,但仍有一些比 2019 年第四季度低幾個百分點。

  • Our cancellation rate was slightly above 2019 levels in Q4 but were slightly below 2019 levels for the full year. In Q4, the booking window of Booking.com remained shorter than in 2019, similar to what we saw in the third quarter of 2020, this -- of 2022.

    我們在第四季度的取消率略高於 2019 年的水平,但全年略低於 2019 年的水平。在第四季度,Booking.com 的預訂窗口仍然比 2019 年短,類似於我們在 2020 年第三季度,也就是 2022 年看到的情況。

  • This booking window expanded meaningfully versus the fourth quarter of 2021 when we saw a higher mix of near-term bookings during the COVID-19 Omicron variant wave. For our alternative accommodations at Booking.com, our room night growth rate was about 15% in Q4 versus 2019, and the global mix of alternative accommodation room nights was about 29%, which was a couple of percentage points higher than Q4 2019 and Q4 2021.

    與 2021 年第四季度相比,這個預訂窗口顯著擴大了,當時我們在 COVID-19 Omicron 變體浪潮期間看到了更高的近期預訂組合。對於我們在 Booking.com 的替代住宿,我們在 Q4 的間夜增長率與 2019 年相比約為 15%,全球替代住宿間夜組合約為 29%,比 2019 年第四季度和第四季度高出幾個百分點2021.

  • Q4 gross bookings increased 32% and versus 2019 or 47% on a constant currency basis. The 32% increase in gross bookings was 22 percentage points better than the 10% room night increase due to 29% higher accommodation constant currency ADRs and also due to 5 points from strong flight bookings across the group, partially offset by 15 percentage points of negative impact from FX movements.

    與 2019 年相比,第四季度的總預訂量增長了 32%,按固定匯率計算增長了 47%。總預訂量 32% 的增幅比 10% 的間夜增幅高出 22 個百分點,原因是住宿固定貨幣 ADR 增加了 29%,而且整個集團的航班預訂量強勁增長了 5 個百分點,部分被 15 個百分點的負增長所抵消外匯變動的影響。

  • Our accommodation constant currency ADRs benefited by about 1 percentage point from regional mix and about 28 percentage points from rate increase across all our regions. Despite the higher ADRs in the fourth quarter, we have not seen a change in the mix of hotel star ratings being booked or change in length of state that could indicate that customers are trading down. We continue to watch these dynamics closely.

    我們的住宿固定貨幣 ADR 從區域組合中受益約 1 個百分點,從我們所有地區的利率上漲中受益約 28 個百分點。儘管第四季度的 ADR 較高,但我們沒有看到預訂的酒店星級組合發生變化,也沒有看到可能表明客戶正在交易的狀態長度發生變化。我們繼續密切關注這些動態。

  • Airline tickets booked in the fourth quarter were up about 2.9% versus a small base in 2019 and up about 61% versus 2021, driven by the continued expansion of Booking.com's flight product. Revenue for the fourth quarter was up 21% versus 2019 and up about 35% on a constant currency basis.

    受 Booking.com 航班產品持續擴張的推動,第四季度預訂的機票數量較 2019 年的小基數增長約 2.9%,較 2021 年增長約 61%。第四季度的收入比 2019 年增長 21%,按固定匯率計算增長約 35%。

  • Revenue as a percentage of gross bookings was about 130 basis points below Q4 2019 and was about in line with our expectations. Our underlying accommodation take rates were about in line with Q4 2019 levels. Marketing expense, which is a highly variable expense line, increased 32% versus Q4 2019.

    收入佔總預訂量的百分比比 2019 年第四季度低約 130 個基點,大致符合我們的預期。我們的基本住宿接受率與 2019 年第四季度的水平大致一致。營銷費用是一個高度可變的費用項目,與 2019 年第四季度相比增長了 32%。

  • Marketing expense as a percentage of gross bookings was in line with our expectations and with Q4 2019. Sales and other expenses as a percentage of gross bookings were up about 40 basis points compared with Q4 2021 and was in line with our expectations.

    營銷費用佔總預訂量的百分比符合我們的預期和 2019 年第四季度。銷售和其他費用佔總預訂量的百分比與 2021 年第四季度相比上升了約 40 個基點,符合我們的預期。

  • About 42% of Booking.com's gross bookings were processed to our payments platform in Q4, up from about 30% in Q4 2021. Our more fixed expenses in aggregate were up 24% versus Q4 2021, which was higher than of our expectations primarily due to changes in FX in the quarter.

    Booking.com 的總預訂量中約有 42% 在第四季度處理到我們的支付平台,高於 2021 年第四季度的約 30%。與 2021 年第四季度相比,我們的固定支出總額增長了 24%,這高於我們的預期,這主要是由於本季度外彙的變化。

  • Adjusted EBITDA was over $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter, which was 3% below 2019 and would have been around 16% above 2019 on a constant currency basis. Non-GAAP net income of $957 million results in non-GAAP EPS of about $25 a share, which was up 6% versus Q4 2019.

    第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 超過 12 億美元,比 2019 年低 3%,按固定匯率計算,本應比 2019 年高出約 16%。非 GAAP 淨收入為 9.57 億美元,非 GAAP 每股收益約為 25 美元,較 2019 年第四季度增長 6%。

  • On a GAAP basis, we had net income of over $1.2 billion in the quarter, which includes a $240 million pretax gain related to the sale of our office building for Booking.com's future headquarters in a sale leaseback transaction as well as $179 million unrealized gains in our equity investments, primarily related to Meituan, DiDi and Grab.

    根據美國通用會計準則,本季度我們的淨收入超過 12 億美元,其中包括與在售後回租交易中為 Booking.com 未來總部出售辦公樓相關的 2.4 億美元稅前收益,以及 1.79 億美元的未實現收益在我們的股權投資中,主要與美團、滴滴和Grab有關。

  • When looking at the full year, we are pleased to report that our 2022 room nights were 6% higher than 2019, and our gross bookings were 26% higher and about 36% higher on a constant currency basis. Our full year revenue was over $17 billion, which was 13% above 2019 and up about 24% on a constant currency basis.

    縱觀全年,我們很高興地報告,我們 2022 年的間夜數比 2019 年高出 6%,總預訂量高出 26%,按固定匯率計算高出約 36%。我們的全年收入超過 170 億美元,比 2019 年增長 13%,按固定匯率計算增長約 24%。

  • Full year revenue as a percentage of gross bookings was 14.1% in 2022, which was lower than the 15.6% in 2019 due to almost a 4 point negative impact from timing, about 40 basis points from the slow recovery in our advertising and other revenues, which have no associated gross bookings and about 30 basis points from an increased mix in flights.

    2022 年全年收入佔總預訂量的百分比為 14.1%,低於 2019 年的 15.6%,原因是時間安排造成近 4 個百分點的負面影響,我們的廣告和其他收入復甦緩慢約 40 個基點,其中沒有相關的總預訂量,並且由於航班組合的增加而增加了約 30 個基點。

  • The benefit of take rates in 2022 from increased revenue from payments was offset by our increased investments in merchandising, each of which impacted our reported take rates by about 1 percentage point in 2022 compared to about 0.5 percentage point each in 2019.

    2022 年支付收入增加帶來的收益被我們增加的商品銷售投資所抵消,其中每一項都對我們報告的 2022 年採用率產生了約 1 個百分點的影響,而 2019 年則各影響了約 0.5 個百分點。

  • These changes in payments revenue and merchandising costs versus 2019 are mainly at Booking.com. Our full year adjusted EBITDA was about $5.3 billion, which was 10% below 2019 and up about 6% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 31%, which was 4 points higher than our EBITDA margin in 2021 and better than our expectations for a few points higher at the start of the year.

    與 2019 年相比,支付收入和銷售成本的這些變化主要發生在 Booking.com。我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 約為 53 億美元,比 2019 年低 10%,按固定匯率計算增長約 6%。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 31%,比我們 2021 年的 EBITDA 利潤率高 4 個百分點,好於我們年初預期的高幾個百分點。

  • Now on to our cash and liquidity position. Our Q4 ending cash investment balance of $15.2 billion was up versus our Q3 ending balance of $11.8 billion driven primarily by the $3.6 billion bond offering we completed in Q4, the $2.1 billion of free cash flow generated in the quarter and about $600 million in proceeds from the sale-leaseback transaction I mentioned previously.

    現在談談我們的現金和流動性狀況。我們第四季度末的現金投資餘額為 152 億美元,高於我們第三季度末的 118 億美元餘額,這主要是由於我們在第四季度完成的 36 億美元債券發行、本季度產生的 21 億美元自由現金流以及約 6 億美元的收益我之前提到的售後回租交易。

  • This increase in our cash balance was partially offset by about $2.3 billion in share repurchase in Q4 and by the payments of about $780 million for a November debt maturity. For the full year 2022, we generated almost $6.2 billion in free cash flow, which was 38% higher than in 2019.

    我們現金餘額的增加部分被第四季度約 23 億美元的股票回購和約 7.8 億美元的 11 月到期債務支付所抵消。 2022 年全年,我們產生了近 62 億美元的自由現金流,比 2019 年高出 38%。

  • We repurchased over $6.5 billion of our shares in the year and reducing our year-end share count by 8% versus 2021 and by 22% over the last 5 years. We are proud of this accomplishment because it reflects both our commitment to return capital to shareholders and how carefully we manage our stock-based compensation expense and its dilutive impact.

    我們在這一年回購了超過 65 億美元的股票,並將年終股票數量與 2021 年相比減少了 8%,在過去 5 年中減少了 22%。我們為這一成就感到自豪,因為它既反映了我們向股東返還資本的承諾,也反映了我們管理股票薪酬費用及其攤薄影響的謹慎程度。

  • We continue to see many publicly traded companies pro forma out the very real expense associated with stock-based compensation. We strongly disagree with this approach, and therefore, every profit metric we report includes the native impact of stock-based compensation expense.

    我們繼續看到許多上市公司預估與股票薪酬相關的非常真實的費用。我們強烈反對這種方法,因此,我們報告的每個利潤指標都包括基於股票的薪酬費用的本地影響。

  • We view SBC expense as a very real cost of doing business across every stakeholder should fully count when evaluating the performance and returns of our business or any business. If anything, we view SBC dollars even more valuable than cash dollars because of our long-term expectation that dollars worth of stock to date will be worth more in the future.

    我們將 SBC 費用視為在評估我們的業務或任何業務的績效和回報時,每個利益相關者都應該充分計算的開展業務的非常真實的成本。如果有的話,我們認為 SBC 美元甚至比現金美元更有價值,因為我們長期預期迄今為止價值美元的股票在未來會更值錢。

  • It's the same expectation that serves as a rationale for pursuing our share repurchase program, a program that has meaningfully reduced our share count over time and has not just served to offset dilution from SBC.

    同樣的期望也是我們實施股票回購計劃的理由,該計劃隨著時間的推移顯著減少了我們的股票數量,而不僅僅是抵消了 SBC 的稀釋。

  • Simply offsetting dilution does not represent a return on capital to shareholders, but actually represents a cash drain on a business that does not get counted in many companies' pro forma reporting of profits. In 2022, our stock-based compensation resulted in less than 0.7% of shareholder dilution.

    簡單地抵消稀釋並不代表股東的資本回報,但實際上代表了企業的現金流失,而許多公司的預估利潤報告並未計算在內。 2022 年,我們的股票薪酬導致股東稀釋不到 0.7%。

  • And during the last 5 years, it resulted in less than 3% of cumulative dilution. As I mentioned, during the same period, we reduced total share count by a net 22%, inclusive of the shares that were added as a result of our stock-based compensation activities. Our future practices will continue to be guided by the same 2 philosophical approaches that guided us decades, namely, number one, the stock-based compensation counts; and two, that our stock repurchases, first and foremost, are meant -- are actively meant to return capital to shareholders in the form of share count reductions.

    在過去的 5 年裡,它導致的累積稀釋不到 3%。正如我所提到的,在同一時期,我們將總股份數量淨減少了 22%,其中包括因我們基於股票的薪酬活動而增加的股份。我們未來的實踐將繼續以指導我們數十年的相同 2 種哲學方法為指導,即第一,基於股票的薪酬計算;第二,我們的股票回購首先是為了積極地以減少股份數量的形式向股東返還資本。

  • In January, we started to sell down our investment in Meituan and completed the sale of [our position] in February. Total proceeds of $1.7 billion from a sale represents a $1.2 billion or over 250% increase in the value of our regional investments. On an after-tax basis, we expect this to increase our available cash position by about $1.4 billion. Our business partnership with Meituan continues.

    1月份我們開始減持對美團的投資,2月份完成減持。 17 億美元的銷售總收益代表著我們區域投資價值的 12 億美元或超過 250% 的增長。在稅後基礎上,我們預計這將使我們的可用現金頭寸增加約 14 億美元。我們與美團的業務合作夥伴關係仍在繼續。

  • As we think about our capital structure and allocation framework going forward, we are focused on growing returns for our shareholders whilst approval investing in our business and maintaining our strong investment-grade credit ratings.

    在考慮未來的資本結構和分配框架時,我們專注於為股東增加回報,同時批准投資於我們的業務並維持我們強大的投資級信用評級。

  • We will target maintaining a gross leverage ratio of about 2%, which is about in line with the historic levels. On a net leverage basis, we've started to run the business with negative net leverage. However, we plan on moving gradually to addition or positive net leverage targeting about Want net leverage over time.

    我們的目標是將總槓桿率維持在 2% 左右,這與歷史水平基本一致。在淨槓桿的基礎上,我們已經開始以負淨槓桿經營業務。然而,我們計劃隨著時間的推移逐漸轉向增加或正淨槓桿目標。

  • We believe managing our capital structure with these targets will allow us to maintain our strong investment-grade credit rating whilst also generating additional capacity for returning capital to shareholders as our EBITDA increases.

    我們相信,通過這些目標來管理我們的資本結構將使我們能夠維持我們強大的投資級信用評級,同時隨著我們的 EBITDA 增加而產生額外的能力向股東返還資本。

  • Given these considerations and our current outlook for the business, we expect our annual total return of capital to shareholders or to be at least equal to our free cash flow over the next few years.

    鑑於這些考慮因素和我們目前的業務前景,我們預計我們每年向股東的總資本回報率或至少等於未來幾年的自由現金流量。

  • In 2019, we started the year with $4.5 billion remaining under our share repurchase organization that was approved in the prior year. In the second quarter 2019, our Board of Directors approved a new $15 billion authorization. Since the start of 2019, we repurchased the full $4.5 billion under prior authorization and have repurchased $11.1 billion under the $15 billion authorization, leaving us with $3.9 billion remaining at the end of last year.

    2019 年年初,我們在上一年批准的股票回購組織下剩餘 45 億美元。 2019 年第二季度,我們的董事會批准了 150 億美元的新授權。自 2019 年初以來,我們根據事先授權回購了全部 45 億美元,並根據 150 億美元授權回購了 111 億美元,到去年年底還剩下 39 億美元。

  • We're announcing today that our Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase authorization of $20 billion that we will begin utilizing after we complete the current authorization. We expect to complete the share repurchases under a cumulative $24 billion authorization within the next 4 years, assuming that travel continues to recover and grow from here.

    我們今天宣布,我們的董事會已批准 200 億美元的新股票回購授權,我們將在完成當前授權後開始使用該授權。假設旅行從這裡繼續復甦和增長,我們預計將在未來 4 年內完成累計 240 億美元授權的股票回購。

  • Before I turn to 2023, I'd like to remind you we'll primarily compare to 2023 with 2022. However, there will be some periods where a comparison to 2019 will be helpful to better understand the trends in the business. For example, comparing January 2023 versus '19 -- versus 2019 helps avoid the distortion created by -- from comparing to January '22, which was negatively impacted by the Omicron variant. As you recall, our January 2022 room nights were 21% below 2019, but it's quickly improved and February was in line with February 2019.

    在談到 2023 年之前,我想提醒您,我們主要將 2023 年與 2022 年進行比較。但是,在某些時期與 2019 年進行比較將有助於更好地了解業務趨勢。例如,將 2023 年 1 月與 19 年和 2019 年進行比較有助於避免與 22 年 1 月相比產生的失真,後者受到 Omicron 變體的負面影響。您還記得嗎,我們 2022 年 1 月的間夜數比 2019 年低 21%,但情況很快得到改善,2 月與 2019 年 2 月持平。

  • So now on to recent trends and our thoughts for the first quarter of 2023. In January, we booked over 95 million room nights, our highest monthly amount ever and about 10 million more room nights than our previous monthly record set last May. January 2023 room nights were up 60% on a year-on-year basis. This compares to Q4 2022 room growth of 39% on a year-on-year basis. When comparing January 2023 with January 2019, room nights were up 26%, a very nice improvement from the 10% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022.

    那麼現在談談最近的趨勢和我們對 2023 年第一季度的想法。1 月份,我們預訂了超過 9500 萬間夜,這是我們有史以來最高的月度預訂量,比我們去年 5 月創下的月度記錄多了約 1000 萬間夜。 2023 年 1 月間夜量同比增長 60%。相比之下,2022 年第四季度客房同比增長 39%。將 2023 年 1 月與 2019 年 1 月進行比較時,間夜量增長了 26%,與 2022 年第四季度 10% 的增幅相比有了非常好的改善。

  • This improvement in growth rates versus 2019 from Q4 January was driven primarily by Europe, rest of world and Asia. January room night growth versus 2019 was about 35% in the U.S., over 25% in Europe and rest of the world, and over 20% in Asia.

    從 1 月第四季度開始,與 2019 年相比,增長率有所提高主要是由歐洲、世界其他地區和亞洲推動的。與 2019 年相比,美國 1 月份的間夜增長率約為 35%,歐洲和世界其他地區超過 25%,亞洲超過 20%。

  • In January, we saw lower cancellation rates versus 2019. Additionally, we've seen the booking window fully normalized back to 2019 levels in January. And in some regions, it has expanded as we see a healthy mix of near-term bookings as well as bookings to stay late in the year.

    1 月份,我們看到取消率低於 2019 年。此外,我們已經看到預訂窗口在 1 月份完全恢復到 2019 年的水平。在某些地區,隨著我們看到近期預訂和年底住宿的健康組合,它已經擴大。

  • We also continue to see no change in the mix of hotel star rating levels being booked or changes in length of stay that could indicate that customers are trading down despite ADRs continuing to be higher than in 2019.

    我們還繼續看到,預訂的酒店星級水平組合沒有變化,入住時間也沒有變化,這可能表明儘管 ADR 繼續高於 2019 年,但客戶正在交易。

  • The average length of stay of transaction booked in January continued to be a bit longer than it was in 2019. January likely saw some benefit from bookings that were made in the month -- in December last year or potentially later in this year. This may indicate the room night growth could moderate from these levels going forward as some of these booking pattern differences normalize.

    1 月份預訂交易的平均停留時間繼續比 2019 年稍長。1 月份可能會從當月(去年 12 月或可能在今年晚些時候)進行的預訂中受益。這可能表明,隨著部分預訂模式差異正常化,間夜量增長可能會從這些水平開始放緩。

  • On a year-on-year basis, January gross bookings were up 74% or up 83% on a constant currency basis. The 74% increase in gross bookings is 14 percentage points higher than 60% room night growth due to 13% higher constant currency ADRs and also due to a few points from flight booking partially offset by 9 percentage points of negative impact from FX movements.

    與去年同期相比,1 月份總預訂量增長 74%,按固定匯率計算增長 83%。總預訂量的 74% 增長比 60% 的間夜增長高 14 個百分點,原因是恆定貨幣 ADR 高出 13%,而且航班預訂的幾個百分點被外匯變動的負面影響部分抵消了 9 個百分點。

  • Gross bookings in January were up 55% versus 2019 or up 72% on a constant currency basis. While there continues to be uncertainty around the month-to-month trends, our comments for the first quarter made the assumption that room night growth for the fourth quarter will be over 30% year-on-year. Compared to 2019, this will be just over 20%, assuming some moderation in growth from what we've seen over the last few weeks.

    1 月份的總預訂量比 2019 年增長了 55%,按固定匯率計算增長了 72%。雖然月度趨勢仍然存在不確定性,但我們對第一季度的評論假設第四季度的間夜增長率將同比增長 30% 以上。與 2019 年相比,這將略高於 20%,假設我們在過去幾週看到的增長有所放緩。

  • We expect Q4 gross bookings to grow about 4 percentage points faster than room nights on a year-on-year basis due to about 6% higher constant currency ADRs and a couple of points from continued flight bookings partially offset by about 6% -- by about 6 points [effect] from FX.

    我們預計第 4 季度的總預訂量同比增長速度將比間夜量增長約 4 個百分點,原因是固定貨幣 ADR 增長約 6%,以及持續航班預訂的幾個點被約 6% 部分抵消——來自FX的約6點[效果]。

  • We expect Q1 revenue as a percentage of gross bookings to be about 10.3%, a 40 basis point improvement from Q1 2019 due to a less negative impact on timing, partially offset by increased investments in merchandising and a higher mix of clients.

    我們預計第一季度收入佔總預訂量的百分比約為 10.3%,較 2019 年第一季度提高 40 個基點,原因是對時間的負面影響較小,部分被商品銷售投資增加和客戶組合增加所抵消。

  • We expect Q1 marketing expense as potential gross bookings to be slightly lower in Q1 than in Q1 2022 due to increase in direct mix. Marketing and merchandising combined, as a percentage of gross bookings in Q1, will be a little higher than in Q1 2022, but for the full year, we expect to be about in line with last year.

    由於直接組合的增加,我們預計第一季度作為潛在總預訂量的營銷費用將略低於 2022 年第一季度。營銷和商品銷售佔第一季度總預訂量的百分比將略高於 2022 年第一季度,但我們預計全年與去年持平。

  • We expect Q1 sales and other expenses as potential gross bookings to be about 30 basis points higher than in Q1 2022 due to higher gross merchant bookings mix and higher third-party core costs, including the impact of our partnership with Majorelle.

    我們預計第一季度的銷售和其他費用作為潛在總預訂量將比 2022 年第一季度高出約 30 個基點,這是由於更高的商戶預訂組合和更高的第三方核心成本,包括我們與 Majorelle 合作的影響。

  • We expect our more fixed expenses in Q1 to grow just over 20% versus Q1 2022 due to higher personnel and related expenses, indirect taxes and IT expenses. Taking all this into account, we expect Q1 adjusted EBITDA to be over $600 million, which will represent a more than 93% increase versus Q1 2022.

    由於人員和相關費用、間接稅和 IT 費用增加,我們預計第一季度的更多固定費用將比 2022 年第一季度增長略高於 20%。考慮到所有這些因素,我們預計第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 將超過 6 億美元,與 2022 年第一季度相比增長超過 93%。

  • As we think about the full year ahead, we're encouraged by the strong trends we're seeing in Q1 so far. However, we do expect continued volatility in our top line trends, which makes it very difficult to predict how the top line will progress during the year and how the full year will turn out. Assuming a moderation in growth from current levels and taking into account the more difficult comparisons as we move through the year, our full year commentary assumes low-teens gross booking growth versus 2022.

    當我們考慮未來的全年時,我們對我們在第一季度看到的強勁趨勢感到鼓舞。然而,我們確實預計我們的收入趨勢將持續波動,這使得很難預測年內收入的進展情況以及全年的結果。假設當前水平的增長有所放緩,並考慮到我們在這一年中進行的更困難的比較,我們的全年評論假設與 2022 年相比,總預訂量增長為十幾歲以下。

  • Of course, it's early in the year, but this is our best estimate at this point in time. For the full year, we expect our 2023 revenue as a percentage of gross bookings to be about 50 basis points higher than in 2022, which will result in year-over-year revenue growth is higher than our year-over-year gross bookings growth.

    當然,現在是年初,但這是我們目前最好的估計。對於全年,我們預計我們 2023 年的收入佔總預訂量的百分比將比 2022 年高出約 50 個基點,這將導致收入同比增長高於我們的同比總預訂量增長.

  • We expect the negative impact on timing to mostly go away in 2023, and we also expect that our payments mix will continue to add to take rates. Partly offsetting these are continued increase in the mix of flights in our business, an increase in merchandising spend versus 2022.

    我們預計對時間安排的負面影響將在 2023 年大部分消失,我們還預計我們的支付組合將繼續增加以收取費用。我們業務中的航班組合持續增加,與 2022 年相比,商品支出有所增加,部分抵消了這些影響。

  • We expect marketing and merchandising combined as the percentage of gross bookings will be about the same as in 2022. We expect our more fixed expenses in 2023 to grow about 20%, which is similar to the growth last year. We expect these more fixed expenses to grow more slowly in future years. As a result, we expect to deliver a record level of EBITDA in 2023 while continue to expand our EBITDA margins by a couple of percentage points versus 2022.

    我們預計營銷和商品銷售佔總預訂量的百分比將與 2022 年大致相同。我們預計 2023 年我們更多的固定費用將增長約 20%,這與去年的增長相似。我們預計這些更多的固定費用在未來幾年將增長得更慢。因此,我們預計 2023 年的 EBITDA 將達到創紀錄水平,同時與 2022 年相比,我們的 EBITDA 利潤率將繼續擴大幾個百分點。

  • In closing, we are pleased with our Q4 results and the early trends we're seeing in 2023. We remain confident that our strategic priorities will enable us to provide better services for our travels and partners.

    最後,我們對第四季度的業績和我們在 2023 年看到的早期趨勢感到滿意。我們仍然相信,我們的戰略重點將使我們能夠為我們的旅行和合作夥伴提供更好的服務。

  • We continue to remain focused on building a larger and faster-growing business than we have pre-COVID that delivers more and faster growing EBITDA dollars and more and faster growing earnings per share with industry-leading EBITDA margins.

    我們繼續專注於建立比 COVID 之前更大、增長更快的業務,以提供更多、更快增長的 EBITDA 美元和更多、更快增長的每股收益,以及行業領先的 EBITDA 利潤率。

  • We'll now move to Q&A. So Chris, can you please open the lines?

    我們現在轉到問答環節。克里斯,你能打開電話嗎?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員說明)

  • Your first question comes from Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley.

    你的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Brian Nowak。

  • Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst

    Brian Thomas Nowak - Research Analyst

  • Congratulations, David. I have 2 questions, 1 sort of blocking and tackling and 1 big picture. Just the first blocking and tackling one, as you're thinking about the low teens gross bookings for this year, can you just sort of walk us through how you're thinking about your best guess or your base case on ADRs around that model?

    恭喜你,大衛。我有 2 個問題,1 種攔截和攔截以及 1 個大局。只是第一個阻礙和解決的問題,因為你正在考慮今年的低青少年總預訂量,你能告訴我們你是如何考慮你的最佳猜測或圍繞該模型的 ADR 的基本案例嗎?

  • Then the second one, kind of more big picture. There's a lot of discussion or speculation about search and potentially travel search becoming more sophisticated because of new AI tools. How do you think about Booking.com's position in that world and sort of the ability to continue to grow the percentage of business that's direct if the search model becomes a little more comprehensive?

    然後是第二個,有點大。由於新的 AI 工具,搜索和可能的旅行搜索變得更加複雜,有很多討論或猜測。如果搜索模型變得更加全面,您如何看待 Booking.com 在該領域的地位以及繼續增加直接業務百分比的能力?

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • Okay, Brian. Thank you. Let me take the first one and then hand over to Glenn for the second one. So yes, there are a few puts and takes, obviously, as we think about the entire year. To answer your question, we expect that our room night growth will be slightly lower than the low teens gross booking growth.

    好的,布賴恩。謝謝。讓我拿第一個,然後交給 Glenn 拿第二個。所以,是的,顯然,正如我們對全年的考慮,有一些投入和投入。為了回答您的問題,我們預計我們的間夜增長將略低於青少年總預訂量的低增長。

  • We'll get a little bit of help from FX. We'll get a little bit of help from flights. But we think that across the year, as the ADR compare gets harder and we get more recovery in Asia that impacts geo mix, we'll see a little bit of pressure on constant currency ADRs for the full year.

    我們將從 FX 獲得一些幫助。我們會從航班上得到一點幫助。但我們認為,在全年中,隨著 ADR 比較變得更加困難,並且我們在亞洲獲得更多影響地域組合的複蘇,我們將看到全年固定貨幣 ADR 面臨一些壓力。

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Brian, why don't I take the second one. Obviously, a lot of hype about AI right now, about generative AI. And I guess hype is a good word when we talk about are we on the Gartner Hype Cycle right now. I'm not sure -- I don't think we're into that froth of dissolution yet.

    布賴恩,我為什麼不拿第二個呢?顯然,現在有很多關於人工智能的炒作,關於生成人工智能。當我們談論我們現在是否處於 Gartner 炒作週期中時,我想炒作是一個好詞。我不確定——我認為我們還沒有陷入解散的泡沫之中。

  • I think we're still probably in the peak of inflated expectations, but there's no doubt this technology has seems to be accelerating all the time. And I think you may be limiting the question almost because it's not just how is AI going to impact search down the road, it's just AI in general.

    我認為我們可能仍處於期望過高的高峰期,但毫無疑問,這項技術似乎一直在加速發展。而且我認為你可能會限制這個問題,因為這不僅僅是人工智能將如何影響未來的搜索,它只是一般的人工智能。

  • And we've been talking about this for some time. I happened to be listening to our call from 3 years ago. And I talked about what we're doing in AI. I talked about our -- some of these plans, I talked about the things we're doing, how important it was to develop our machine learning capabilities and all the things that we do and Booking Holding's using AI to improve the product, improve what we're presenting to our customers, working with our partners better using AI.

    我們已經討論了一段時間了。我碰巧在聽我們三年前的電話。我談到了我們在人工智能方面所做的事情。我談到了我們的 - 其中一些計劃,我談到了我們正在做的事情,發展我們的機器學習能力的重要性以及我們所做的所有事情以及 Booking Holding 使用人工智能來改進產品,改進什麼我們正在向我們的客戶展示,使用 AI 與我們的合作夥伴更好地合作。

  • So there's a tremendous amount of interest, of course, in all these areas and some of the stuff we see is very interesting. But I think it's going to take some time before there's going to be major changes in your specific question about search, no doubt it's going to make it better.

    因此,當然,在所有這些領域都引起了極大的興趣,我們看到的一些東西非常有趣。但我認為,您關於搜索的具體問題要發生重大變化還需要一些時間,毫無疑問,這會讓它變得更好。

  • In terms of your question, how are we going to be positioned for these changes, I think the best thing anybody could do is look back at the past. There's been lots of technology changes since we first started our business over 20 years ago. And as those changes happened, we adapted and developed. We did great when, for example, people went from just desktop to mobile.

    關於你的問題,我們將如何為這些變化做好準備,我認為任何人都能做的最好的事情就是回顧過去。自 20 多年前我們首次開展業務以來,技術發生了很多變化。隨著這些變化的發生,我們適應並發展了。例如,當人們從桌面轉向移動時,我們做得很好。

  • And we were very good coming out with these new AI machine learning tools to be able to predict what would be best for our customer. I would say that our capabilities are as good as anybody else's and we will adapt and do very well with these new technologies. So I am confident in the future, and I am not scared, I'm actually encouraged by being able to use all of these new tools to provide a better service for both sides of the marketplace.

    我們非常擅長推出這些新的 AI 機器學習工具,能夠預測什麼對我們的客戶最有利。我會說我們的能力和其他人一樣好,我們將適應這些新技術並做得很好。所以我對未來充滿信心,我並不害怕,我實際上對能夠使用所有這些新工具為市場雙方提供更好的服務感到鼓舞。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Mark Mahaney, Evercore.

    你的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Mark Mahaney。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • Okay. Let me ask 2 questions, please. The China outbound question, Glenn, just -- that will take a while, but that has been a massive market historically. I think it's the largest outbound travel market. And I know it was a small single-digit percentage, mid-single-digit percentage, whatever, back in 2019.

    好的。請讓我問2個問題。中國出境問題,格倫,只是 - 這需要一段時間,但歷史上一直是一個巨大的市場。我認為這是最大的出境游市場。而且我知道這是一個很小的個位數百分比,中等個位數百分比,無論如何,回到 2019 年。

  • Your thoughts on how to position the company to maybe better tap into that now than you were able to a couple of years ago? And then is there another U.S. out there? What I mean by that is you've talked about leaning into gaining market share gains in the U.S. Is there another region where you think you kind of underpunch your weight, if I said that right, and can also apply the U.S. playbook to also gain better share in that market?

    您對如何定位公司以比幾年前更好地利用這一點有何想法?然後那裡有另一個美國嗎?我的意思是,你已經談到了在美國獲得市場份額增長的傾向。如果我說得對,還有其他地區你認為你的體重不足,並且也可以應用美國的劇本來獲得在那個市場佔有更好的份額?

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Thanks, Mark. In regards to China, obviously, there's a lot of excitement about China, too, dropping the restrictions in terms of being able to travel due to COVID, getting everybody very excited about what does that mean.

    謝謝,馬克。關於中國,顯然,中國也有很多令人興奮的地方,因為 COVID 取消了對旅行的限制,讓每個人都對這意味著什麼感到非常興奮。

  • And not just for travel, of course, just reducing those restrictions is increasing GDP in China and what that's going to do in terms of demand for all sorts of things and what's that's going to do to inflation, and how is it going to impact the rest of the world economies.

    當然,不僅僅是旅行,僅僅減少這些限制就可以增加中國的 GDP,這將對各種事物的需求產生什麼影響,對通貨膨脹產生什麼影響,以及它將如何影響世界其他經濟體。

  • In terms of your specific question, you're correct. We were a small player in terms of the overall Chinese travel business before the pandemic. And in terms of the future, yes, there is an opportunity there, and there are a lot of outbound travelers who definitely are hoping that they can go outbound and travel soon.

    就你的具體問題而言,你是對的。就大流行之前的整體中國旅遊業務而言,我們是一個小玩家。而就未來而言,是的,那裡有機會,而且有很多出境旅行者肯定希望他們能盡快出境旅行。

  • I don't think it's going to happen nearly as quickly as I think some people have been predicting. When you look at some of the numbers out of January in terms of the amount of outbound airlift available was a teens number, I think maybe it was 15% of what it was in 2019 in terms of the actual lift that you can get out of China.

    我認為它不會像某些人預測的那樣快發生。當您查看 1 月份的一些數字時,就可用的出境空運量而言,這是一個十幾歲的數字,我認為就您可以空運的實際空運量而言,這可能是 2019 年的 15%中國。

  • So I think it's going to take some time for that. Now in terms of how we can take advantage of the increase that is going to happen in future, we're going to use pretty much the same placement we use pretty much everywhere. Albeit China is a little different because there's not Google there.

    所以我認為這需要一些時間。現在,就我們如何利用未來將要發生的增長而言,我們將使用我們幾乎在任何地方都使用的幾乎相同的位置。儘管中國有點不同,因為那裡沒有谷歌。

  • But in terms of marketing, meaning people are aware of all the great products that we offer and be able to competitive pricing, all things any consumer cares about, whether you're in China, Europe, U.S. or wherever in the world, we'll keep doing those things.

    但在營銷方面,這意味著人們知道我們提供的所有優質產品,並且能夠以具有競爭力的價格提供任何消費者關心的所有東西,無論您是在中國、歐洲、美國還是世界任何地方,我們'會繼續做那些事。

  • I know it's not -- China is a very competitive market. And it's going to take some time. And as we said when we talked about our priorities, you'll note that we'd say U.S., I don't say China, but I would like to be able to say, look, we have been able to be successful in gaining market share in the U.S. over the last few years.

    我知道這不是——中國是一個競爭非常激烈的市場。這需要一些時間。正如我們在談到我們的優先事項時所說的那樣,你會注意到我們會說美國,我不會說中國,但我想說,看,我們已經能夠成功地獲得過去幾年在美國的市場份額。

  • I think everybody can see those numbers. So yes, we will try and do better than we did in the past in China, but I don't think anybody should start going to the bank with any expectations of significant improvements anytime in the near term.

    我想每個人都能看到這些數字。所以是的,我們會努力做得比過去在中國做得更好,但我認為任何人都不應該帶著任何在短期內任何時候取得重大改善的期望開始去銀行。

  • What was your second question? What was that? What was the second question.

    你的第二個問題是什麼?那是什麼?第二個問題是什麼。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • No. No. Is there another U.S.? So is there -- not Europe, but is there another regional market where you think your market share probably isn't where you want it to be, and you can use U.S. learnings to expand share in that market?

    不,不,還有另一個美國嗎?那麼有沒有 - 不是歐洲,但是否有另一個區域市場,您認為您的市場份額可能不是您想要的,並且您可以利用美國的經驗來擴大在該市場的份額?

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Well, we want to increase our market share everywhere, of course. The reason we kept calling out the U.S., the U.S. is very similar to Europe in many ways. And we had noticed how underindexed we were there.

    好吧,我們當然想在各地增加我們的市場份額。我們一直點名美國的原因是,美國在很多方面與歐洲非常相似。我們已經註意到我們在那裡的索引有多麼不足。

  • That's not quite the same case when we look around the world, albeit in -- except in China, which you've noted. We do fairly well in a lot of parts of the world, but there's nothing that we pull out separately and say, "Hey, here's another area where we're going to really press hard to try and do better at." We've kind of do what we've been doing throughout the world for a long time, it's gaining share everywhere.

    當我們環顧世界時,情況並不完全相同,儘管在中國除外,您已經註意到了。我們在世界上很多地方都做得很好,但我們沒有什麼可以單獨拿出來說,“嘿,這是另一個我們真的要努力嘗試做得更好的領域。”長期以來,我們一直在做我們在世界範圍內一直在做的事情,它在世界各地的份額都在增加。

  • Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

    Mark Stephen F. Mahaney - Senior MD & Head of Internet Research

  • Okay. And congratulations, David.

    好的。恭喜你,大衛。

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • Mark, thank you. Just to add to comments. Relative to what we're seeing in January, we saw obviously a nice improvement in the Asia region compared to Q4. That is not being driven by China. That's been driven by the other markets in the Asia region. China is a small contributor to that improvement so far.

    馬克,謝謝。只是為了添加評論。相對於我們在 1 月份看到的情況,與第四季度相比,我們明顯看到亞洲地區有了不錯的改善。這不是由中國推動的。這是由亞洲地區的其他市場推動的。迄今為止,中國對這一改善的貢獻很小。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Lloyd Walmsley, UBS.

    你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Lloyd Walmsley。

  • Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Analyst

    Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Analyst

  • If I heard you right, you talked to, I think, 50 bps of revenue take rate improvement this year. How much of that is kind of the timing headwind unwinding? What are kind of some other puts and takes we should think about impacting revenue take rates this year?

    如果我沒聽錯的話,我認為你談到了今年 50 個基點的收入率提高。其中有多少是逆風平倉的時機?我們應該考慮影響今年收入接受率的其他一些什麼樣的看跌期權和接受率?

  • And as we think about '24 and growth continues to normalize, is that -- is there another 50 bps in take rate just from that kind of timing unwind? You talked about the 1% headwind to '22.

    當我們考慮 24 年並且增長繼續正常化時,是不是 - 僅僅從這種時機放鬆中,是否還有另外 50 個基點?你談到了 22 年的 1% 逆風。

  • And then the second one, I guess, you've been picking up share in the U.S. for a while now. Can you talk about just how repeat business is coming in and specifically repeat direct is coming in as that kind of cohort of users starts to age in the U.S.? And maybe how that compares to historical levels? Anything you can share there would be great.

    然後是第二個,我猜,你在美國的份額已經增加了一段時間。您能否談談重複業務是如何進入的,特別是隨著這類用戶在美國開始老化,重複直接進入?也許這與歷史水平相比如何?任何你可以在那里分享的東西都會很棒。

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Lloyd, let me take the first part of that. So I think I kind of went through a little bit of this in the commentary, but there's a lot of numbers in the commentary with all the comparisons of versus last year versus 2019, et cetera.

    是的。勞埃德,讓我來談談第一部分。所以我想我在評論中略微提到了這一點,但評論中有很多數字,包括與去年和 2019 年的所有比較,等等。

  • So relative to the 50 bps of improvement this year, essentially, the timing drag on take rates last year has basically gone -- almost entirely gone away. So there was about a point of timing last year that goes away. And also, we get a little bit of an increase from payments as payment mix increases.

    因此,相對於今年 50 個基點的改善,從本質上講,去年對利率的時間拖累基本上已經消失——幾乎完全消失了。所以去年有一個時間點消失了。而且,隨著支付組合的增加,我們的支付也會有所增加。

  • The offsetting amount to those get you to the plus 50 is that we have continuing this year at the same level of merchandise we exited last year out, broadly speaking. So you get a year-on-year impact of merchandising that's a negative and flight mix as well. So that's how you get to the cap plus 50 improvement from last year.

    從廣義上講,讓你達到 50 強的抵消金額是我們今年繼續保持去年退出的相同水平的商品。因此,您會受到商品銷售的同比影響,這是一種負面影響,也是航班組合。所以這就是你如何達到上限再加上去年的 50 改進。

  • So to your question on 2024 though, the timing impact has really gone away at this point in time compared to 2019, a lot less, of course, growth rate change, much more than expected during the year. So essentially, there are puts and takes along the lines. The same thing I talked about, payments, merchandising, flights, et cetera.

    因此,對於你關於 2024 年的問題,與 2019 年相比,此時的時間影響確實已經消失,當然,增長率變化要小得多,遠遠超過年內的預期。所以基本上,有看跌期權和看跌期權。我談過同樣的事情,支付、銷售、航班等等。

  • But we don't expect major changes in the take rate level from where we are right now. You shouldn't be modeling big changes in to take rates because we have some things helping and we have some things that are hurting, and they're generally going to offset each of that broadly speaking at this point in time.

    但我們預計採用率水平不會從我們現在的位置發生重大變化。你不應該對採取利率的重大變化進行建模,因為我們有一些幫助,我們有一些傷害,而且他們通常會在這個時間點廣泛地抵消每一個。

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • We don't go regional in terms of your question there. We're not going to be talking about in the U.S. in terms of specific that you're asking for.

    就您那裡的問題而言,我們不會去區域化。我們不會在美國討論您要求的具體內容。

  • Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Analyst

    Lloyd Wharton Walmsley - Analyst

  • Okay. Any directional sense of just how you're feeling about the aging cohorts in the market share gains you've had just broadly?

    好的。您對您剛剛廣泛獲得的市場份額增長中的老齡化人群有何看法?

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • No, I'm not going to be specific in terms of that. I just would say how pleased I am. We've been talking about it for some time on these calls about what we're doing in the U.S. and gaining share and the reasons that we're doing, how we're doing it, and I'm just reiterating how pleased we are to be able to do that, and we're going to keep on grinding the way to continue to try and gain share.

    不,我不打算具體說明這一點。我只想說我有多高興。一段時間以來,我們一直在這些電話會議上討論我們在美國所做的事情、獲得的份額以及我們這樣做的原因、我們是如何做的,我只是重申我們很高興能夠做到這一點,我們將繼續努力,繼續嘗試並獲得份額。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Justin Post, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    你的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林的賈斯汀波斯特。

  • Justin Post - MD

    Justin Post - MD

  • Maybe 1 for David and 1 for Glenn. David, it looks like you're getting your EBITDA back towards the 33%, maybe 33.5% range this year in guidance. How do you think about where you are now versus pre pandemic? And what are the levers going forward?

    也許 1 個給 David,1 個給 Glenn。大衛,看起來你的 EBITDA 回到了 33%,今年可能是 33.5% 的指導範圍。與大流行前相比,您如何看待自己現在所處的位置?前進的槓桿是什麼?

  • And then, Glenn, I think you said AA nights were about 29% of total and that's kind of flattish with last year. How are you thinking about your alternative accommodation business? And to the extent you can talk about it, obviously, competitive concerns, what are your big initiatives for that business this year?

    然後,格倫,我想你說過 AA 之夜大約佔總數的 29%,這與去年持平。您如何看待您的替代住宿業務?顯然,就您可以談論的競爭問題而言,您今年對該業務的重大舉措是什麼?

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • All right. Just let me take the EBITDA margin question first. So if we add a couple of points to where we are in '22 to '23, the drivers between that, the difference between that, the 39 points we were at in 2019, are basically a few things.

    好的。讓我先回答 EBITDA 利潤率問題。因此,如果我們在 22 年到 23 年的位置上加上幾分,那麼兩者之間的驅動因素,兩者之間的差異,即我們在 2019 年的 39 分,基本上是幾件事。

  • One, we're leaning in more relative to marketing and merchandising that we did in 2019, that's very conscious to continue to gain share in the recovering market. We've got the mix of lower-margin business. We said that flights and payments will start to have an impact as they grow and they are making part of the difference.

    第一,我們更傾向於我們在 2019 年所做的營銷和商品推銷,這是非常有意識地繼續在復甦的市場中獲得份額。我們有低利潤業務的組合。我們說過,航班和支付將隨著它們的發展而開始產生影響,並且它們正在發揮作用。

  • We've got some targeted OpEx investments in -- when you look at our total OpEx expense vis-a-vis 2019, we've got DST and we've got FX. I mean, I don't know their impact -- rough order of impact. That's how you kind of get to the 6 points of difference.

    我們有一些有針對性的 OpEx 投資——當你看一下我們 2019 年的 OpEx 總支出時,我們有 DST 和 FX。我的意思是,我不知道它們的影響——影響的大致順序。這就是您獲得 6 分差異的方式。

  • So when you think about where we would go going forward from that, we do expect to be able to increase EBITDA margins from this level. We're not trying to get back to COVID, pre-COVID volume levels, I just want to be super clear, but we do think there's still some growth potential from where we are right now.

    因此,當您考慮我們將從哪裡前進時,我們確實希望能夠從這個水平提高 EBITDA 利潤率。我們並不是要回到 COVID、COVID 之前的音量水平,我只是想非常清楚,但我們確實認為我們現在的位置仍有一些增長潛力。

  • And the drivers of that, if you think of the things I just mentioned are the reasons we're down below versus 2019 now. The drivers of that, that we think we can use to our advantage over time is that as our direct mix increases, we should be able to kind of lean in less in total to our margin spend. We may lean in to the same level in absolute terms on paid marketing, but paid market becomes a smaller part of the business.

    如果你想到我剛才提到的事情,那麼驅動因素就是我們現在低於 2019 年的原因。我們認為我們可以隨著時間的推移利用我們的優勢的驅動因素是,隨著我們的直接組合增加,我們應該能夠減少我們的保證金支出。我們可能會在付費營銷方面向絕對水平傾斜,但付費市場成為業務的一小部分。

  • We do believe that over time, we can get more leverage on our fixed costs. But then we do expect to see continued pressure from the lower mix -from the higher mix of lower-margin businesses that will continue to grow. We believe that over the kind of medium term, we can still increase margins from where we are today into 2023. But again, not back to the 2019 levels.

    我們確實相信,隨著時間的推移,我們可以更好地利用固定成本。但我們確實預計會看到來自較低組合的持續壓力 - 來自將繼續增長的較低利潤率業務的較高組合。我們相信,從中期來看,到 2023 年,我們仍然可以將利潤率從今天的水平提高。但同樣,不會回到 2019 年的水平。

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Regarding the alternative accommodation space, we are very pleased with what we're doing in growing. And I mentioned in the prepared remarks some of the things that we did last year and I won't repeat them all, but those are the things that we're doing to make sure that partners, that suppliers, they want to put their properties on to our platform.

    關於替代住宿空間,我們對我們在成長方面所做的事情感到非常滿意。我在準備好的評論中提到了我們去年所做的一些事情,我不會全部重複,但這些是我們正在做的事情,以確保合作夥伴、供應商,他們想把他們的財產在我們的平台上。

  • And that's the first thing. And having done that and doing that right now, is that how do we get the awareness. So you noticed, for example, our Super Bowl ad, where we do include the non-hotel accommodation in that make sure -- as we grow that branding throughout the year to make sure people are aware.

    這是第一件事。已經做到了並且現在正在這樣做,這就是我們如何獲得意識。所以你注意到,例如,我們的超級碗廣告,我們確實在其中包括非酒店住宿,因為我們全年都在發展品牌以確保人們知道。

  • It's really -- it's not anything that is magic is making a product that people want to use and making a product that people who own properties want to put on our platform and then putting in the marketing to push it through. It has increased. It has not increased substantially over the years as our hotel product continues to build quite rapidly too.

    真的 - 製造人們想要使用的產品並製造擁有財產的人想要放在我們平台上的產品,然後進行營銷以推動它通過,這並不是什麼神奇的事情。它增加了。多年來它並沒有大幅增加,因為我們的酒店產品也在繼續快速發展。

  • We can have a big increase in this share of the trends of accommodations that we saw growing in the hotel area, but we're doing both. So that's the point. And our thing is we know, and this is really important.

    我們可以大幅增加我們在酒店領域看到的住宿趨勢中的這一份額,但我們正在同時做這兩件事。這就是重點。我們的事情是我們知道,這真的很重要。

  • We know customers come to our site, come to our app. They start a one type of property. And then they switch and they look at another one, another entirely different one. And then they go back and they come back. We really believe having both types of properties, hotels and on hotels in the same place that enables a customer to be able to compare and contrast, and look what they cause or look at the reviews makes a better process for consumers over time.

    我們知道客戶來到我們的網站,來到我們的應用程序。他們開始了一種類型的財產。然後他們換個角度看另一個,另一個完全不同的。然後他們回去,他們回來了。我們真的相信,將兩種類型的酒店、酒店和酒店放在同一地點,使客戶能夠進行比較和對比,看看他們造成了什麼或查看評論,隨著時間的推移,這對消費者來說會是一個更好的過程。

  • Now look, we just got a lot of the stuff out last year. And for example, I mentioned our requested book, we're still trialing that, we're just piloting that. It's going to take some more time. But I am very encouraged by where we are and where we're going. So I have no concerns about us continuing in the same direction.

    現在看,我們去年剛剛推出了很多東西。例如,我提到了我們要求的書,我們仍在試用,我們只是在試用。這還需要一些時間。但我對我們所處的位置和我們要去的地方感到非常鼓舞。所以我不擔心我們會繼續朝著同一個方向前進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Eric Sheridan, Goldman Sachs.

    你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Glenn, your comments around the competitive intensity that you faced in I'd love to look backwards as the first part of the question and sort of reflecting back on '22, how you saw the competitive intensity of the industry broadly evolve against the backdrop where sort of pent-up demand was sort of a bit of a tailwind for the industry from a growth perspective.

    格倫,你對你所面臨的競爭強度的評論我很想回顧一下作為問題的第一部分並回顧一下'22,你如何看待行業的競爭強度在以下背景下廣泛演變從增長的角度來看,某種程度上被壓抑的需求對該行業來說有點順風。

  • And as you look forward into '23 and beyond as demand somewhat normalizes away from the pent-up dynamic. How should we be thinking about some of those key initiatives you're most focused on to sort of meet where you see pockets of competitive intensity against a more normalized demand environment?

    當您展望 23 世紀及以後,隨著需求從被壓抑的動態中恢復正常。我們應該如何考慮您最關注的一些關鍵舉措,以便在您看到競爭激烈的地方與更規範的需求環境相結合?

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure. Well, the competitiveness was quite clear when you compare '22 versus '21. We had a very nice recovery in '21, and we benefited from the fact that a lot of our competitors just didn't seem to be out of the gate so fast in terms of their marketing, in terms of what they're doing, whether it be brand performance marketing in terms of trying to get the same demand that we are out getting there.

    當然。好吧,當你比較 22 年和 21 年時,競爭力就很明顯了。我們在 21 年恢復得非常好,我們受益於這樣一個事實,即我們的許多競爭對手在營銷方面似乎並沒有那麼快走出大門,就他們正在做的事情而言,是否是品牌績效營銷試圖獲得與我們到達那里相同的需求。

  • So in 2022, also we're putting a full throttle on to get those customers. So that's what we saw. We saw it in performance marketing. We saw it significantly increasing the amount of money being put into brand marketing in lots of different ways that everybody wanted to make sure that they're out trying to get those customers.

    因此,在 2022 年,我們也將全力以赴來吸引這些客戶。這就是我們所看到的。我們在績效營銷中看到了它。我們看到它以許多不同的方式顯著增加了投入品牌營銷的資金,每個人都希望確保他們正在努力爭取這些客戶。

  • That was the difference between '21 and '22. That's when I speak about what a competitive market really was last year. But look, this industry has always been competitive. The wonderful thing about the way technology has developed is that enables customers with very little friction to be able to look at all the different ways they can do their travel.

    這就是 21 年和 22 年的區別。那是我談論去年競爭激烈的市場的時候。但是你看,這個行業一直都是競爭激烈的。技術發展方式的美妙之處在於,它使客戶能夠以非常小的摩擦來查看他們可以進行旅行的所有不同方式。

  • So we have to always be providing them with a great service, a great price, so they will actually use us. It's one thing that I think some people will recognize as much perhaps is that this is on every day we go out there and we fight for those customers. Yes, we have loyal customers.

    所以我們必須始終為他們提供優質的服務和優惠的價格,這樣他們才會真正使用我們。我認為有些人會認識到這一點,也許是我們每天都去那裡,我們為那些客戶而戰。是的,我們有忠實的客戶。

  • They're loyal because we've providing them with a great service and great price. We got to keep on doing it to maintain their loyalty. And we're going to keep on doing that. Now in terms of the future, in terms of areas that I don't think it's going to get any less competitive, but I do think that we do have some advantages because of our great technology because of the skill sets that we have to continue to try and advance this service better, so people do use it and then they do say, "Hey, I'm going to go to Booking because it's just better." And that's what we're going to have to keep on doing, but there's no magic bullet here. We've got to do it every day.

    他們很忠誠,因為我們為他們提供了優質的服務和實惠的價格。我們必須繼續這樣做以保持他們的忠誠度。我們將繼續這樣做。現在就未來而言,就我認為競爭不會減弱的領域而言,但我確實認為我們確實有一些優勢,因為我們擁有偉大的技術,因為我們必須繼續掌握技能組合嘗試更好地推進這項服務,所以人們確實使用它,然後他們確實說,“嘿,我要去預訂,因為它更好。”這就是我們將不得不繼續做的事情,但這裡沒有靈丹妙藥。我們必須每天都這樣做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from John Colantuoni, Jefferies.

    您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 John Colantuoni。

  • John Robert Colantuoni - Equity Analyst

    John Robert Colantuoni - Equity Analyst

  • Great. So marketing efficiency moved back to 2019 levels in the second half of '22 after being much higher in the first half. And I realize some of that is just the timing of the recovery and sort of the transition to a more competitive environment that you just talked about in the prior question. But how are you thinking about balancing continued investments in customer acquisition with driving EBITDA dollars in 2023, along with the mix between sort of merchandising and marketing? So any detail there would be helpful.

    偉大的。因此,營銷效率在上半年高得多之後,在 22 年下半年回到了 2019 年的水平。我意識到其中一些只是複甦的時機,以及向您剛剛在上一個問題中談到的更具競爭力的環境過渡的時機。但是,您如何考慮在 2023 年平衡對客戶獲取的持續投資與推動 EBITDA 美元,以及某種商品銷售和營銷之間的組合?所以那裡的任何細節都會有所幫助。

  • And then if you could give some more detail about how bookings so far in the core summer period have trended, that would be great.

    然後,如果您能提供更多有關核心夏季期間到目前為止的預訂趨勢的詳細信息,那就太好了。

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • All right. John, let me answer both those questions. So as I think you know, we took a conscious decision, especially in 2022 to kind of lean into our marketing channels, the combination of merchandising and marketing.

    好的。約翰,讓我回答這兩個問題。所以我想你知道,我們做出了一個有意識的決定,尤其是在 2022 年,有點傾向於我們的營銷渠道,即銷售和營銷的結合。

  • And collectively, they were a fair amount higher than they were in 2019 from an expense point of view. And that was a conscious choice, we believe that is reflected in the share gains we've made, not just in the U.S., but also globally.

    從支出的角度來看,總的來說,它們比 2019 年要高出很多。這是一個有意識的選擇,我們相信這反映在我們所取得的份額增長上,不僅在美國,而且在全球範圍內。

  • We -- obviously, we have recovered the level much more than the travel industry as we talked. When you look at occupancy rates and how they've recovered and you look at our room nights, and obviously, we're significantly in front of that. So we believe that has been a sensible investment.

    我們 - 顯然,我們恢復的水平遠遠超過我們所說的旅遊業。當您查看入住率及其恢復情況時,您會看到我們的間夜數,顯然,我們遠遠領先於此。因此,我們認為這是一項明智的投資。

  • We -- as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we will keep the combined investments in marketing and merchandising in 2023 at about the same level as it was in 2022. Now during the year, we'll kind of look at what we think the right balance of merchandising versus marketing is.

    我們——正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣,我們將在 2023 年將營銷和銷售的綜合投資保持在與 2022 年大致相同的水平。現在在這一年中,我們將看看我們認為推銷與營銷的正確平衡是。

  • From the comments that I made, you would realize we probably on average across the year compared to 2022, spending a bit more on merchandising, a bit less on marketing, but that could change during the year. We are kind of really thinking of the 2 together based upon the efficiencies we see in each of the sales.

    從我的評論中,你會發現與 2022 年相比,我們全年平均可能在商品推銷上花費更多,在營銷上花費更少,但這可能會在這一年發生變化。根據我們在每次銷售中看到的效率,我們確實在考慮這兩者。

  • And we'll stay at that more elevated level because we believe the market is still recovering. There's still potential for share gains for us in our marketplace. So we kind of really think of the 2 together. And if you kind of look at it versus 2019, it's a fairly sizable step up.

    我們將保持在更高的水平,因為我們相信市場仍在復蘇。在我們的市場上,我們仍有可能獲得份額收益。所以我們真的有點想把這兩個放在一起。如果你將它與 2019 年相比,這是一個相當大的進步。

  • But we think that's been a smart investment and a good investment that makes sense at least this year, we still see recovery in the travel industry.

    但我們認為這是一項明智的投資,也是一項至少在今年有意義的良好投資,我們仍然看到旅遊業復甦。

  • And if you remind me again, please, the second part of your question?

    如果你再次提醒我,拜託,你問題的第二部分?

  • John Robert Colantuoni - Equity Analyst

    John Robert Colantuoni - Equity Analyst

  • Second part was if you could give any detail around summer bookings so far.

    第二部分是您是否可以提供到目前為止有關夏季預訂的任何詳細信息。

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. Thank you. So summer bookings, yes. So we have seen, as I mentioned, the travel window -- the booking window recover completely on a global basis. But actually, the booking window has now expanded a little bit in Europe and North America and still slowly it was -- or strongly it was, I would say, in Asia.

    是的。謝謝。所以夏季預訂,是的。所以我們已經看到,正如我提到的,旅行窗口——預訂窗口在全球範圍內完全恢復。但實際上,歐洲和北美的預訂窗口現在已經擴大了一點,而且仍然很緩慢——或者我想說,在亞洲,它是非常強勁的。

  • So that means that in Europe and North America, we're seeing strong demand for short-term bookings but also for summer bookings. So we're seeing the summer booking season shaping up quite well. We're not going to go and -- we're not going to repeat the kind of on the book side metrics we talked about last year.

    因此,這意味著在歐洲和北美,我們看到對短期預訂以及夏季預訂的強勁需求。因此,我們看到夏季預訂季進展順利。我們不會去 - 我們不會重複我們去年談到的賬面指標。

  • We think they perhaps caused a bit of confusion, but more appropriate for a recovering environment. But you can see based upon the fact that we have strong growth in room nights, we have now in those markets, slightly lengthened booking windows, strong growth in gross bookings, then obviously, that would certainly say subject to, obviously, the fact that things are cancelable and a high degree of our bookings are flexible, but it certainly looks like it's shaping up to be a strong summer season for us.

    我們認為它們可能會造成一些混亂,但更適合正在恢復的環境。但是你可以看到,基於我們的間夜增長強勁的事實,我們現在在這些市場上,預訂窗口略微延長,總預訂量強勁增長,那麼顯然,這肯定會說,顯然,事實是事情是可以取消的,我們的大部分預訂都是靈活的,但它看起來肯定會成為我們的一個強勁的夏季。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Your next question comes from Kevin Kopelman, Cowen.

    你的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Kevin Kopelman。

  • Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I want to ask about the flights initiatives. Could you update us there and what the outlook is for flights this year? And then also could you comment on the [Etraveli]?

    我想問一下航班計劃。你能告訴我們今年的航班前景嗎?然後你能評論一下 [Etraveli] 嗎?

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Sure, Kevin. So in the prepared remarks, you talked a little bit about the number of countries we have. They're obviously we're very pleased where we are in terms of the growth of the number of tickets that we're selling now is very good product. We like it because, as I mentioned, people -- some people go to flights first, and we want to make sure they know who we are and then start buying from us.

    當然,凱文。因此,在準備好的發言中,您談到了我們擁有的國家/地區數量。他們顯然對我們現在銷售的門票數量的增長感到非常高興,這是非常好的產品。我們喜歡它是因為,正如我提到的,人們——有些人先坐飛機,我們想確保他們知道我們是誰,然後開始向我們購買。

  • In terms of the acquisitions, I can't -- there were regulations, I'm not going to comment on that. We continue to work with the people in the process and continue to work on that. But I would say, just so please, we look where we were -- again, because I listened to that call 3 years ago, the earnings call, and we just -- 3 years ago talked, we just gotten in 2019, the flights been up off the ground, so sorry about the point at Booking.com.

    在收購方面,我不能——有規定,我不打算對此發表評論。我們繼續在這個過程中與人們合作,並繼續為此努力。但我想說,拜託,我們看看我們在哪裡——再次,因為我聽了 3 年前的那個電話,收益電話,我們只是——3 年前談過,我們剛剛在 2019 年,航班離開了地面,對 Booking.com 的觀點感到抱歉。

  • And we're just starting to where we are now. I just love the -- what the people have been able to build, and I love the fact that people like it and are coming to us. And we have high hopes for the future in this area.

    我們才剛剛開始到現在的位置。我只是喜歡 - 人們已經能夠建立的東西,我喜歡人們喜歡它並來找我們的事實。我們對這一領域的未來寄予厚望。

  • Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Kevin Campbell Kopelman - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Glenn, and a quick -- one other quick one. As we think about year-over-year comps as the year goes on, is it fair to think if Q2 has a pretty tough comp and then the second half is more normal?

    格倫,還有一個快速的——另一個快速的。當我們考慮隨著時間的推移逐年比較時,如果 Q2 有一個非常艱難的組合然後下半年更正常,這是否公平?

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • I'll let David talk about that if he wants to or not.

    不管大衛願意不願意,我都會讓他談談。

  • David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

    David I. Goulden - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, if you look at year-on-year, then obviously, the comps get harder when we get past Q1, right? Q1 is going to be the easiest comp on a year-on-year basis.

    是的,如果你看同比,那麼很明顯,當我們超過第一季度時,補償會變得更難,對吧?與去年同期相比,第一季度將是最簡單的比較。

  • And the toughest quarter on a year-on-year basis will be Q2 because remember, we had that kind of early peak in travel bookings in the May time frame last year as we have -- went through our nonlinear recovery. We always said it would be a nonlinear. So Q1 will be the easiest comp. Q2 will be the toughest comp. And Q3 and Q4 a little way between.

    與去年同期相比,最艱難的季度將是第二季度,因為請記住,我們在去年 5 月的時間框架內經歷了那種早期的旅行預訂高峰——我們經歷了非線性複蘇。我們總是說這將是非線性的。所以Q1將是最簡單的comp。 Q2 將是最艱難的比賽。而Q3和Q4之間有點距離。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that was your final question. I will now turn it back to Glenn Fogel for closing remarks.

    女士們,先生們,這是你們的最後一個問題。我現在將把它轉回給 Glenn Fogel 作結束語。

  • Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

    Glenn D. Fogel - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you. I want to thank our partners, our customers, our dedicated employees and our shareholders. We appreciate your support as we continue to build on the long-term vision for our company.

    謝謝。我要感謝我們的合作夥伴、我們的客戶、我們敬業的員工和我們的股東。我們感謝您的支持,因為我們將繼續為公司的長期願景而努力。

  • And I want to close by thanking everyone at Booking Holdings and everyone around the world who are contributing to help the people a bit so terribly hurt by the tragic events in Turkey and Syria. We have employees in Turkey and many more who have family and friends there, along with supply partners in the devastated area. Our hearts go out to all who are suffering there. Thank you, and good night.

    最後,我想感謝 Booking Holdings 的每個人以及世界各地為幫助因土耳其和敘利亞的悲慘事件而受到嚴重傷害的人們做出貢獻的每一個人。我們在土耳其有員工,還有更多員工在那裡有家人和朋友,還有受災地區的供應合作夥伴。我們的心與所有在那裡受苦的人同在。謝謝,晚安。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

    謝謝。女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與,並請您斷開線路。