紐約梅隆銀行 (BK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the 2022 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call hosted by BNY Mellon. (Operator Instructions) Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference call and webcast will be recorded and will consist of copyrighted material. You may not record or rebroadcast these materials without BNY Mellon's consent. I will now turn the conference over to Marius Merz, BNY Mellon, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

早上好，歡迎來到由紐約梅隆銀行主辦的 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）稍後，我們將進行問答環節。請注意，本次電話會議和網絡廣播將被錄製並包含受版權保護的材料。未經紐約梅隆銀行同意，您不得錄製或轉播這些材料。我現在將會議轉交給紐約梅隆銀行投資者關係主管 Marius Merz。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. And good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth quarter 2022 earnings call. As always, we will reference our financial highlights presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations page of our website at bnymellon.com. I'm joined by Robin Vince, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Emily Portney, our Chief Financial Officer. Robin will start with introductory remarks and Emily will then take you through the earnings presentation. Following their remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

謝謝你，運營商。大家早上好。歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。與往常一樣，我們將參考我們的財務亮點演示文稿，該演示文稿可以在我們網站 bnymellon.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。總裁兼首席執行官 Robin Vince 加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Emily Portney。 Robin 將從介紹性發言開始，然後 Emily 將向您介紹收益情況。在他們的發言之後，將進行問答環節。

Before we begin, please note that our remarks include forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. Information about these statements and non-GAAP measures are available in the earnings press release financial supplement and financial highlights presentation, all available on the Investor Relations page of our website. Forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today, January 13, 2023, and will not be updated.

在我們開始之前，請注意我們的評論包括前瞻性陳述和非 GAAP 措施。有關這些報表和非 GAAP 措施的信息可在收益新聞稿財務補充和財務摘要演示中找到，所有這些都可在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上找到。在本次電話會議上做出的前瞻性陳述僅適用於今天，即 2023 年 1 月 13 日，並且不會更新。

With that, I will turn it over to Robin.

有了這個，我會把它交給羅賓。

Thank you, Marius. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us.

謝謝你，馬呂斯。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。

Before Emily takes you through our quarterly results, I'd like to make a few broader comments on our performance in 2022 and on some areas of focus for 2023. As you can see on Page 2 of our financial highlights presentation, we reported earnings per share for the full year of $2.90, down 30% compared to the prior year and a return on tangible common equity of 13%. Excluding the impact of notable items, we reported earnings per share of $4.59, which was up 8% year-over-year and a return on tangible common equity of 21%, reflecting our solid underlying performance against the backdrop of a complex operating environment in 2022.

在 Emily 向您介紹我們的季度業績之前，我想就我們 2022 年的業績和 2023 年的一些重點領域發表一些更廣泛的評論。正如您在我們財務摘要演示文稿的第 2 頁上看到的那樣，我們報告了每股收益全年股價為 2.90 美元，比上年下降 30%，有形普通股回報率為 13%。剔除重要項目的影響，我們公佈的每股收益為 4.59 美元，同比增長 8%，有形普通股回報率為 21%，反映了我們在復雜的經營環境背景下穩健的基本業績2022.

Our results this year included several notable items. For example, those related to Russia in the first quarter and the goodwill impairment related to investment management in the third quarter. And our fourth quarter results reflect the impact of a number of decisions that we made to improve our revenue growth and efficiency trajectory moving forward.

我們今年的結果包括幾個值得注意的項目。比如一季度與俄羅斯相關的，三季度與投資管理相關的商譽減值。我們第四季度的業績反映了我們為提高收入增長和效率軌跡而做出的一系列決策的影響。

Excluding notable items, revenues grew a little faster than expenses as we continued to see strength in client activity and volumes while continuously positioning ourselves to derive meaningful benefit from the upward move in interest rates. Together, these factors more than offset the stiff headwinds from lower market levels.

不包括值得注意的項目，收入增長略快於支出，因為我們繼續看到客戶活動和數量的增長，同時不斷定位自己以從利率上行中獲得有意義的利益。這些因素共同抵消了較低市場水平帶來的強勁逆風。

On the back of organic growth in AUC/A, we're continuing our role as the world's largest custodian, and we saw cumulative net inflows in assets under management. Beyond the numbers, I'd like to highlight a couple of areas where I'm particularly encouraged by our performance in 2022. First, our sales momentum, which speaks to the strength of our client franchise and our capabilities. In Asset Servicing, we continue to elevate our client dialogue while maintaining a strong focus on service quality to support our clients through a difficult environment.

在 AUC/A 有機增長的支持下，我們繼續扮演全球最大託管人的角色，我們看到管理資產的累計淨流入。除了數字之外，我想強調幾個我對我們 2022 年的表現特別感到鼓舞的領域。首先，我們的銷售勢頭，這說明了我們客戶特許經營權的實力和我們的能力。在資產服務方面，我們繼續加強與客戶的對話，同時保持對服務質量的高度關注，以在困難的環境中為我們的客戶提供支持。

Sales wins increased off a strong 2021, and we're winning larger and higher-value deals, which is where the elevation of client dialogue matters. In ETFs, AUC/A reached $1.4 trillion as we saw strong net inflows throughout the year, and the total number of funds serviced rose by 12%. And in (inaudible), we grew AUC/A by 14%, and fund launches were up by over 25%. Treasury Services delivered strong broad-based growth throughout 2022. In the fourth quarter, we announced a collaboration with Conduent to be their trusted payments infrastructure provider as they launch a digital integrated payments hub for businesses and the public sector.

2021 年銷售業績強勁增長，我們正在贏得規模更大、價值更高的交易，這正是提升客戶對話的重要性所在。在 ETF 中，AUC/A 達到 1.4 萬億美元，全年淨流入強勁，服務的基金總數增長了 12%。在（聽不清）中，我們的 AUC/A 增長了 14%，基金發行增長了 25% 以上。 Treasury Services 在整個 2022 年實現了強勁的廣泛增長。第四季度，我們宣布與 Conduent 合作，成為他們值得信賴的支付基礎設施提供商，因為他們為企業和公共部門推出了數字集成支付中心。

This hub will enable access to more secure, faster and cost-effective options to send, request and receive payments and refunds in a matter of minutes using real-time payments and other proven payment technologies.

該中心將允許訪問更安全、更快速和更具成本效益的選項，以使用實時支付和其他成熟的支付技術在幾分鐘內發送、請求和接收付款和退款。

And we also onboarded several new clients during the quarter as we continued to build our digital payments and related FX businesses. And finally, while 2022 was no doubt a difficult environment for the wealth market, our wealth management business acquired more clients with particular strength in the ultra high net worth and family office segments, and we continue to deepen existing relationships through our expanded banking offering where the percentage of advisory clients who also bank with us rose by about 5 percentage points.

隨著我們繼續建立我們的數字支付和相關外匯業務，我們在本季度還吸引了幾個新客戶。最後，雖然 2022 年對財富市場來說無疑是一個艱難的環境，但我們的財富管理業務在超高淨值和家族辦公室領域獲得了更多特別有實力的客戶，我們通過擴大銀行業務繼續深化現有關係，其中同時與我們開戶的諮詢客戶的比例上升了約 5 個百分點。

Notwithstanding the tough backdrop, Pershing, which is, in fact, our largest play as a company in the wealth space, brought in net new assets of over $120 billion, representing 5% growth. In the fourth quarter, we announced 2 very exciting wins, demonstrating the broad-based capabilities that Pershing is uniquely positioned to offer. The first was State Farm, which is an exciting relationship given state farms, size and reach with its thousands of agents across the country serving tens of millions of households. And we also onboarded Arta finance which was founded by a team of former Google executives who are now leading a global digital family office that uses advanced technologies to empower investors with tools to invest intelligently. This win is an important proof point of our proven set of APIs and digital capabilities and demonstrates our ability to win with tech-forward clients.

儘管背景艱難，但 Pershing（實際上是我們作為財富領域最大的一家公司）帶來了超過 1200 億美元的淨新資產，增長了 5%。在第四季度，我們宣布了 2 項非常激動人心的勝利，展示了 Pershing 具有獨特定位的廣泛能力。第一個是 State Farm，這是一個令人興奮的關係，考慮到國營農場的規模和影響力，它在全國有成千上萬的代理商為數千萬家庭提供服務。我們還加入了 Arta finance，它由一群前谷歌高管創立，他們現在領導著一家全球數字家族辦公室，該辦公室使用先進技術為投資者提供智能投資工具。此次勝利是我們經過驗證的 API 和數字功能集的重要證明，並展示了我們贏得技術領先客戶的能力。

The second area of performance, I'll call out is that we continue to forge ahead with our longer-term growth initiatives such as Pershing X, real-time payments, the reimagining of custody and collateral and digital assets. These initiatives will help position the company for the next leg of growth beyond the medium term. We went live with our digital asset custody platform in the U.S. in October. And as I highlighted in my OpEd in the financial times a month ago, this will continue to be a focus for us, not so much for crypto, but really the broader opportunity that exists across digital assets and distributed ledger technology.

我要指出的第二個業績領域是，我們繼續推進我們的長期增長計劃，例如 Pershing X、實時支付、託管和抵押品以及數字資產的重新構想。這些舉措將幫助公司為中期以外的下一階段增長做好準備。我們於 10 月在美國上線了我們的數字資產託管平台。正如我一個月前在《金融時報》的 OpEd 中強調的那樣，這將繼續成為我們關注的焦點，與其說是加密貨幣，不如說是數字資產和分佈式賬本技術中存在的更廣泛的機會。

If anything, the recent events in the crypto market only further highlight the need for trusted regulated providers in the digital asset space. We are also now live with our first release at Persing X, just 1 year after launching the initiative. This release to a small number of select clients includes 3 core products: Portfolio Solutions, including direct indexing; Client Servicing; and Data And Reporting tools. But equally importantly, this release is about our ability to set a goal on a tight timeline and execute.

如果有的話，加密市場最近發生的事件只會進一步凸顯數字資產領域對受信任的受監管提供商的需求。我們現在也在 Persing X 上發布了我們的第一個版本，距啟動該計劃僅 1 年。面向少數特定客戶的此版本包括 3 個核心產品：投資組合解決方案，包括直接索引；客戶服務；以及數據和報告工具。但同樣重要的是，這個版本是關於我們在緊迫的時間表上設定目標並執行的能力。

Finally, the third and probably most important highlight of the year for me is our people and our systems, once again, demonstrated remarkable resilience across the war in Ukraine, the extraordinary moves we saw in several government debt markets and volume searches, the operational readiness of our people and our systems consistently enabled successful outcomes for our clients. I cannot thank our people enough for their hard work and dedication to serving our clients.

最後，對我來說，今年的第三個也是可能是最重要的亮點是我們的人民和我們的系統在烏克蘭戰爭期間再次表現出非凡的彈性，我們在幾個政府債務市場和大量搜索中看到了非凡的舉動，運營準備就緒我們的員工和我們的系統始終如一地為我們的客戶帶來成功的結果。我非常感謝我們的員工辛勤工作和為客戶服務的奉獻精神。

While we're proud of these accomplishments, it's also important to humbly recognize an area where we fell short this past year, acknowledging the inflationary headwinds, expense growth for a second straight year was around 5% ex notables. We consider that number too high, especially considering the expense growth benefited from a stronger U.S. dollar throughout the year. On a constant currency basis, expense growth ex notables was approximately 8%.

雖然我們為這些成就感到自豪，但同樣重要的是要謙虛地認識到我們在過去一年中的一個不足之處，承認通貨膨脹的逆風，費用連續第二年增長約 5% ex notables。我們認為這個數字太高了，尤其是考慮到全年受益於美元走強的費用增長。按固定匯率計算，不包括知名人士的費用增長約為 8%。

While I'm encouraged by the renewed sense of urgency across the organization over the last few months to better manage our expenses, we still have ways to go on this journey, which brings me to our key focus areas for 2023.

雖然我對過去幾個月整個組織重新燃起的更好地管理我們的開支的緊迫感感到鼓舞，但我們仍然有辦法繼續這一旅程，這讓我想到了 2023 年的重點關注領域。

First, Expenses. My leadership team and I are fully committed to bending the cost curve this year. That will come from instilling further expense discipline across the firm and from focusing more on profitable new business growth, saying no to more things when the economics aren't what they should be.

第一，費用。今年，我和我的領導團隊將全力扭轉成本曲線。這將來自於在整個公司內灌輸進一步的費用紀律，以及更多地關注有利可圖的新業務增長，在經濟狀況不佳時對更多事情說不。

Efficiencies are also going to come from implementing ideas that will make BNY Mellon a simpler, more efficient place to do business with. And so here, we've embarked on an enterprise-wide initiative, led by senior leaders and high-performing employees from around the world focused on driving greater efficiency and enabling sustainable growth. No one knows the ins and outs of our products, services and processes better than our people. And so all of our staff have had the opportunity to take an active role in this initiative by submitting ideas for how we can run the company in a better way for all our stakeholders.

效率也將來自實施想法，這些想法將使 BNY Mellon 成為一個更簡單、更高效的業務開展場所。因此，在這裡，我們啟動了一項全企業範圍的計劃，由來自世界各地的高級領導和高績效員工領導，專注於提高效率和實現可持續增長。沒有人比我們的員工更了解我們的產品、服務和流程的來龍去脈。因此，我們所有的員工都有機會通過提交有關我們如何以更好的方式為所有利益相關者運營公司的想法，在這項倡議中發揮積極作用。

To date, we've approved about 1,500 high-quality ideas, of which about 200 are already completed and another 500 are on track to be implemented this year with a meaningful amount of these ideas requiring little upfront investment. Emily will cover this in more detail, but as a result of these initiatives and our renewed determination, we expect to achieve nearly double the amount of efficiency savings this year compared to what we achieved in any of the recent years. But our priorities are, of course, not just about managing expenses.

迄今為止，我們已經批准了大約 1,500 個高質量的創意，其中約 200 個已經完成，另外 500 個有望在今年實施，其中大量創意幾乎不需要前期投資。艾米麗將更詳細地介紹這一點，但由於這些舉措和我們重新下定決心，與我們近年來取得的成就相比，我們預計今年的效率節約量將增加近一倍。但我們的首要任務當然不僅僅是管理費用。

We are also focused on reinvigorating profitable growth. Our project commits to achieving positive underlying growth this year across almost all of our businesses, with particularly healthy growth coming from Asset Servicing, Pershing and Treasury Services. We will continue full speed ahead with our critical long-term growth investments that I mentioned earlier with clear and specific targets that we expect the teams to hit over the course of the year.

我們還專注於重振盈利增長。我們的項目致力於在今年實現我們幾乎所有業務的積極基礎增長，尤其是資產服務、博興和資金服務的健康增長。我們將繼續全速推進我之前提到的關鍵長期增長投資，並製定明確而具體的目標，我們希望團隊在這一年中實現這些目標。

Lastly, on the top line, our priorities include goals for our One BNY Mellon program, which incentivizes cross business referrals and development of innovative, multi-business solutions that only BNY Mellon's unique collection of businesses is equipped to provide. In 2022, we saw good initial momentum, and we surpassed our initial goal for the year, and we intend to deliver a further pickup in 2023 as we increasingly sell our platform and better connect the dots for our clients.

最後，最重要的是，我們的優先事項包括我們的 One BNY Mellon 計劃的目標，該計劃鼓勵交叉業務推薦和開發創新的多業務解決方案，只有 BNY Mellon 獨特的業務集合才能提供這些解決方案。 2022 年，我們看到了良好的初始勢頭，我們超越了當年的最初目標，我們打算在 2023 年實現進一步的回升，因為我們越來越多地銷售我們的平台並更好地為我們的客戶連接點。

Finally, on capital management, I'll highlight that our Board of Directors has authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program, which provides us ample flexibility and having ended the year comfortably above our capital management targets, we're now resuming buybacks. And so in summary, while none of us can predict exactly what the operating environment will look like in 2023, we are laser focused on growing the franchise and executing against our efficiency plans with discipline and urgency to drive some positive operating leverage in 2023 while returning a healthy amount of capital to our shareholders this year.

最後，在資本管理方面，我要強調的是，我們的董事會已經批准了一項新的 50 億美元股票回購計劃，這為我們提供了充足的靈活性，並且在今年結束時輕鬆超過了我們的資本管理目標，我們現在正在恢復回購。因此，總而言之，雖然我們都無法準確預測 2023 年的運營環境會是什麼樣子，但我們非常專注於發展特許經營權，並以紀律和緊迫感執行我們的效率計劃，以在 2023 年推動一些積極的運營槓桿，同時返回今年為我們的股東提供了可觀的資本。

With that, let me turn it over one last time to Emily as our CFO.

有了這個，讓我最後一次把它交給我們的首席財務官艾米麗。

Thank you, Robin, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝羅賓，大家早上好。

As I walk in to the details of our results for the quarter, all comparisons will be on a year-over-year basis unless I specify otherwise. Starting on Page 3 of our financial highlights presentation. Total revenue of $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter was down 2% on a reported basis and up 9% excluding notable items. As Robin mentioned earlier, and as you can see at the bottom of the page, our reported results in the fourth quarter included a few notable items resulting from actions to improve our revenue and expense trajectory. Reported revenues included approximately $450 million of net securities losses recorded in investments and other revenue, resulting from a previously disclosed repositioning of our securities portfolio, which I will expand upon later.

當我詳細介紹本季度的結果時，除非我另有說明，否則所有比較都將按年進行。從我們財務摘要演示文稿的第 3 頁開始。第四季度的總收入為 39 億美元，按報告基礎下降 2%，不包括重要項目則增長 9%。正如 Robin 之前提到的，正如您在頁面底部看到的那樣，我們在第四季度報告的結果包括一些顯著的項目，這些項目是由改善我們的收入和支出軌蹟的行動產生的。報告的收入包括約 4.5 億美元的投資和其他收入中記錄的淨證券損失，這是由於先前披露的我們證券投資組合的重新定位造成的，我將在稍後詳細介紹。

Fee revenue was flat as the benefit of lower money market fee waivers and healthy organic growth across our Security Services and Market and Wealth Services segment was offset by the impact of lower market values from both equity and fixed income markets and the unfavorable impact of a stronger U.S. dollar. Firm-wide assets under custody and/or administration of $44.3 trillion declined by 5%. The headwind of lower market values and currency translation was tempered by continued growth from both new and existing clients and assets under management of $1.8 trillion decreased by 25%. This also reflects lower market values and the unfavorable impact of the stronger U.S. dollar. And again, this headwind was partially offset by cumulative net inflows.

費用收入持平，因為較低的貨幣市場費用減免和我們的安全服務以及市場和財富服務部門的健康有機增長的好處被股票和固定收益市場的較低市場價值的影響以及更強勢的不利影響所抵消美元。全公司託管和/或管理的資產為 44.3 萬億美元，下降了 5%。新客戶和現有客戶的持續增長以及 1.8 萬億美元的管理資產減少了 25%，緩和了市場價值下降和貨幣換算的不利因素。這也反映了較低的市場價值和美元走強的不利影響。同樣，這種逆風被累計淨流入部分抵消。

Investment in other revenue was negative $360 million in the quarter on a reported basis. Excluding notable items, investment in other revenue was a positive $100 million, a good results, reflecting another quarter of strong fixed income trading performance. Net interest revenue increased by 56%, primarily reflecting higher interest rates. Expenses were up 8% or 2% excluding notable items. Notable items amounted to approximately $200 million in the quarter, primarily severance expenses and provision for credit losses was $20 million, primarily reflecting changes in the macroeconomic forecast.

根據報告，本季度其他收入投資為負 3.6 億美元。不包括值得注意的項目，其他收入投資為正 1 億美元，這是一個不錯的結果，反映出另一個季度強勁的固定收益交易表現。淨利息收入增加 56%，主要反映利率上升。不包括值得注意的項目，費用增加了 8% 或 2%。本季度值得注意的項目約為 2 億美元，主要是遣散費和信貸損失準備金為 2000 萬美元，主要反映了宏觀經濟預測的變化。

On a reported basis, EPS was $0.62, pretax margin was 17% and return on tangible common equity was 12%. Excluding the impact of notable items, EPS was $1.30, up 25% year-over-year. Pretax margin was 31% and return on tangible common equity was 24%.

根據報告，每股收益為 0.62 美元，稅前利潤率為 17%，有形普通股回報率為 12%。剔除重要項目的影響，每股收益為 1.30 美元，同比增長 25%。稅前利潤率為 31%，有形普通股回報率為 24%。

Touching on the full year on Page 4. Total revenue grew by 3% on a reported basis and by 6%, excluding notable items. Fee revenue was flat. Investment and other revenue was negative $82 million or positive $340 million, excluding notable items and net interest revenue was up 34%. Expenses were up 13% on a reported basis and up 5%, excluding notable items, consistent with our goal to drive 2022 expense growth towards the bottom half in the 5% to 5.5% range that we guided to throughout the year. Excluding the benefit from the stronger U.S. dollar, expenses ex-notables for the year were up 8%.

觸及第 4 頁的全年。總收入在報告的基礎上增長了 3%，不包括值得注意的項目，增長了 6%。收費收入持平。投資和其他收入為負 8200 萬美元或正 3.4 億美元，不包括值得注意的項目，淨利息收入增長了 34%。費用在報告的基礎上增長了 13%，不包括值得注意的項目，增加了 5%，這與我們將 2022 年費用增長推向我們全年指導的 5% 至 5.5% 範圍內的下半部分的目標一致。剔除美元走強帶來的好處，今年除名人之外的支出增長了 8%。

Provision for credit losses was $39 million compared to a provision benefit of approximately $230 million in the prior year. On a reported basis, EPS was $2.90, pretax margin was 20% and return on tangible common equity was 13%. Excluding the impact of notable items, EPS was $4.59, up 8% year-over-year. Pretax margin was 29% and return on tangible common equity was 21%.

信貸損失準備金為 3900 萬美元，而上一年的準備金收益約為 2.3 億美元。根據報告，每股收益為 2.90 美元，稅前利潤率為 20%，有形普通股回報率為 13%。剔除重要項目的影響，每股收益為 4.59 美元，同比增長 8%。稅前利潤率為 29%，有形普通股回報率為 21%。

On to capital and liquidity on Page 5. Our consolidated Tier 1 leverage ratio was 5.8%, up approximately 35 basis points sequentially, primarily reflecting capital generated through earnings, the sale of Alcentra and an improvement in accumulated other comprehensive income, partially offset by capital returned through dividends. Our CET1 ratio was 11.2%, up approximately 120 basis points, driven by the increase in capital and lower risk-weighted assets. And finally, our LCR was 118%, up 2 percentage points sequentially.

關於第 5 頁的資本和流動性。我們的綜合一級槓桿率為 5.8%，連續上升約 35 個基點，主要反映了通過收益產生的資本、出售 Alcentra 和累積其他綜合收益的改善，部分被資本抵消通過分紅返還。我們的 CET1 比率為 11.2%，上升了約 120 個基點，這主要受資本增加和風險加權資產降低的推動。最後，我們的 LCR 為 118%，連續上升 2 個百分點。

Turning to our net interest revenue and balance sheet trends on Page 6, which I will also talk about in sequential terms. Net interest revenue of $1.1 billion was up 14% sequentially. This increase primarily reflects higher yields on interest-earning assets, partially offset by higher funding costs. Once again, NIR in the quarter exceeded our expectations as noninterest-bearing deposits remain elevated. Average positive balances decreased by 2%. Within this, interest-bearing deposits increased by 2% and noninterest-bearing deposits declined by 11%.

轉向我們在第 6 頁上的淨利息收入和資產負債表趨勢，我也將按順序討論。淨利息收入為 11 億美元，環比增長 14%。這一增長主要反映了生息資產收益率的提高，部分被更高的融資成本所抵消。本季度的 NIR 再一次超出了我們的預期，因為無息存款仍然處於高位。平均正餘額減少了 2%。其中，計息存款增加 2%，非計息存款則減少 11%。

Despite this decline in the quarter, the share of noninterest-bearing deposits as a percentage of total eaves has held up better than expected at 27%, which is higher than historical averages, and we continue to actively manage our deposit footprint to optimize our cost NIR, liquidity value and returns on capital.

儘管本季度有所下降，但無息存款佔總存款的比例仍保持在 27%，好於預期，高於歷史平均水平，我們將繼續積極管理我們的存款足跡以優化我們的成本NIR，流動性價值和資本回報率。

Average interest-earning assets remained flat. Underneath that, cash and reverse repo increased by 4%. Loan balances were down 1% and our investment securities portfolio was down 3%. As I mentioned, in the fourth quarter, we took actions to reposition the securities portfolio to improve our NIR trajectory for the coming years. We sold roughly $3 billion of longer-dated lower yields in municipal and corporate bonds, which we've been replacing with significantly higher yielding securities earning roughly 5% or 250 to 300 basis points more than what we were earning on the securities that we sold.

平均生息資產持平。在此之下，現金和逆回購增長了 4%。貸款餘額下降了 1%，我們的投資證券組合下降了 3%。正如我提到的，在第四季度，我們採取行動重新定位證券投資組合，以改善我們未來幾年的 NIR 軌跡。我們出售了大約 30 億美元的長期較低收益率的市政債券和公司債券，我們一直在用收益率高得多的證券代替這些債券，這些證券的收益比我們出售的證券高出大約 5% 或 250 到 300 個基點.

While we realized an approximately $450 million pretax loss with this sale, this transaction was virtually capital neutral because the unrealized loss was already recognized in AOCI. In fact, we freed up roughly $150 million of CET1 capital as the higher credit quality replacement portfolio consumes significantly lower RWA.

雖然我們通過此次出售實現了大約 4.5 億美元的稅前虧損，但該交易實際上是資本中性的，因為未實現的虧損已經在 AOCI 中得到確認。事實上，我們釋放了大約 1.5 億美元的 CET1 資本，因為更高信用質量的替代投資組合消耗了顯著更低的 RWA。

Moving on to expenses on Page 7. Expenses for the quarter were $3.2 billion, up 8% year-over-year. Excluding notable items, expenses were up 2% year-over-year. This year-over-year increase reflects investments net of efficiency savings, higher revenue-related expenses, including distribution expenses as well as the impact of inflation, partially offset by the benefit of the stronger U.S. dollar.

轉到第 7 頁的費用。本季度的費用為 32 億美元，同比增長 8%。不包括值得注意的項目，費用同比增長 2%。這一同比增長反映了扣除效率節省後的投資、更高的收入相關費用，包括分銷費用以及通貨膨脹的影響，部分被美元走強的好處所抵消。

Turning to Page 8 for a closer look at our business segment. Security Services reported total revenue of $2.2 billion, up 18% compared to the prior year. Fee revenue increased 2% and net interest revenue was up 79%, driven by higher interest rates, partially offset by lower balances. As I discussed the performance of our Security Services and Market and Wealth Services segment, I will focus my comments on investment services speed for each line of business, which you can find in our financial supplement.

翻到第 8 頁，詳細了解我們的業務部門。安全服務報告的總收入為 22 億美元，比上年增長 18%。在利率上升的推動下，手續費收入增長 2%，淨利息收入增長 79%，部分被較低的餘額所抵消。當我討論我們的安全服務和市場與財富服務部門的表現時，我將把我的評論集中在每個業務線的投資服務速度上，你可以在我們的財務補充中找到。

In Asset Servicing, investment services fees were down 1% as the impact of lower market values at a stronger U.S. dollar were mostly offset by the abatement of money market fee waivers, higher client activity and net new business. In Issuer services, investment services fees were up 7%, driven by the reduction of money market fee waivers and higher Depositary Receipt issuance and cancellation fees.

在資產服務方面，投資服務費用下降了 1%，因為美元走強導致市場價值下降的影響大部分被貨幣市場費用減免、客戶活動增加和新業務淨額的減少所抵消。在發行人服務方面，投資服務費上漲了 7%，這主要受貨幣市場費用減免減少以及存託憑證發行和註銷費用增加的推動。

Next, market and wealth services on Page 9. Market and Wealth Services reported total revenue of $1.4 billion, up 19%. Fee revenue was up 14% and net interest revenue increased by 33%. In Pershing, invested services fees were up 22%. This increase reflects lower money market fee waivers, higher fees on suite balances and higher client activity, partially offset by the impact of lost business in the prior year and lower market levels. Net new assets were $42 billion, reflecting a very healthy level of growth from existing clients while flows related to dividends and year-end capital gain distributions were naturally more muted than in the prior year quarter, an average active clearing accounts were up 4% year-on-year.

接下來是第 9 頁的市場和財富服務。市場和財富服務報告的總收入為 14 億美元，增長 19%。手續費收入增長 14%，淨利息收入增長 33%。在 Pershing，投資服務費上漲了 22%。這一增長反映了較低的貨幣市場費用減免、較高的套房餘額費用和較高的客戶活動，部分被前一年業務損失和較低市場水平的影響所抵消。淨新資產為 420 億美元，反映了現有客戶的非常健康的增長水平，而與股息和年終資本利得分配相關的流量自然比去年同期低，平均活躍清算賬戶同比增長 4% -同比。

In Treasury Services, investment services fees were flat. The benefit of lower money market fee waivers and net new business was offset by the negative impact to fees from higher earnings credits on the back of higher interest rates. And in Clearance and Collateral Management, Investment Services fees were up 6%, primarily reflecting higher U.S. government clearance volumes driven by continued demand for U.S. treasury securities due to elevated volatility and an evolving monetary policy.

在資金服務方面，投資服務費用持平。較低的貨幣市場費用減免和新業務淨額的好處被利率上升帶來的較高收益信貸對費用的負面影響所抵消。在清算和抵押品管理方面，投資服務費用增長了 6%，主要反映出美國政府清算量的增加，這是由於波動性加劇和不斷變化的貨幣政策導致對美國國債的持續需求推動的。

Now turning to Investment and Wealth Management on Page 10. Investment and Wealth Management reported total revenue of $825 million, down 19%. Fee revenue was down 18% and net interest revenue was up 2%. Assets under management of $1.8 trillion declined by 25% year-over-year. This decrease largely reflects lower market values and the unfavorable impact of the stronger U.S. dollar partially offset by cumulative net inflows.

現在轉到第 10 頁的投資和財富管理。投資和財富管理報告的總收入為 8.25 億美元，下降了 19%。手續費收入下降 18%，淨利息收入增長 2%。管理的資產為 1.8 萬億美元，同比下降 25%。這一下降主要反映了較低的市場價值和美元走強的不利影響，部分被累計淨流入所抵消。

As it relates to flows in the quarter, we saw $6 billion of net outflows from long-term products and $27 billion of net inflows into cash. Among our long-term active strategy, liability-driven investments continued to be a bright spot with $19 billion of net inflows in the quarter, a real testament to our market-leading capabilities and resilient performance during the recent market dislocation, a very healthy net inflows into our cash strategies come on the back of strong investment performance, most notably in our drives money market fun.

與本季度的流量相關，我們看到長期產品淨流出 60 億美元，現金淨流入 270 億美元。在我們的長期積極策略中，負債驅動的投資繼續成為亮點，本季度淨流入 190 億美元，這真實證明了我們在近期市場混亂中的市場領先能力和彈性表現，非常健康的淨流入資金流入我們的現金策略是在強勁的投資業績的支持下，尤其是在我們推動貨幣市場樂趣方面。

In Investment Management, revenue was down 22% due to lower market value, and mix of cumulative net inflows, a stronger U.S. dollar and the sale of Alcentra partially offset by lower money market fee waivers. And finally, in Wealth Management, revenue was down 12%, primarily reflecting lower market values. Client assets of $269 million were down 16% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower market value.

在投資管理方面，收入下降了 22%，原因是市值下降、累計淨流入、美元走強以及 Alcentra 的出售部分被較低的貨幣市場費用減免所抵消。最後，在財富管理方面，收入下降了 12%，主要反映了較低的市值。客戶資產為 2.69 億美元，同比下降 16%，主要原因是市值下降。

Page 11 shows the results of the Other segment, our investment in other revenue includes the net loss on the repositioning of the securities portfolio and expenses include severance.

第 11 頁顯示了其他分部的結果，我們對其他收入的投資包括證券投資組合重新定位的淨損失，費用包括遣散費。

Then let me close with a few comments on how we're thinking about 2023. With regards to NIR, we have positioned ourselves for another year of healthy growth. And so we currently project an approximately 20% year-over-year increase for the full year, and that assumes current market implied interest rates. Having said that, the range of potential outcomes remains relatively wide, and the quarterly trajectory of NIR will be dependent on various factors, including the path of deposit levels and mix as well as interest rates. As it relates to fees, as you know, market-driven factors like equity and fixed income market levels, currency and industry dominated fee dynamics in 2022 while underlying growth across Security Services and Market and Wealth Services was offset by headwinds in Investment and Wealth Management.

最後，讓我就我們對 2023 年的看法發表一些評論。關於 NIR，我們已經為又一年的健康增長做好了準備。因此，我們目前預計全年同比增長約 20%，並假設當前市場隱含利率。話雖如此，潛在結果的範圍仍然相對廣泛，NIR 的季度軌跡將取決於各種因素，包括存款水平和組合的路徑以及利率。正如您所知，與費用相關，股票和固定收益市場水平、貨幣和行業等市場驅動因素主導了 2022 年的費用動態，而安全服務、市場和財富服務的潛在增長被投資和財富管理的不利因素所抵消.

For 2023, we expect to return to some underlying fee growth for the firm. Now Robin talked about the work we've been doing over the last few months to bend the cost curve while making sure we're continuing to invest for 2023. This translates into expenses, excluding notable items increasing by approximately 4%, assuming exchange rates remain flat towards the ended 2022 or by approximately 4.5% on a constant currency basis. This compares to 8% in 2022.

到 2023 年，我們預計公司的基本費用將恢復增長。現在 Robin 談到了過去幾個月我們一直在做的工作，以彎曲成本曲線，同時確保我們在 2023 年繼續投資。這轉化為費用，不包括顯著項目增加約 4%，假設匯率到 2022 年底保持不變或按固定匯率計算增長約 4.5%。相比之下，2022 年為 8%。

And then on taxes, we expect our effective tax rate for the year to be in the 21% to 22% range, primarily due to an increase of the corporation tax rate in the U.K. this year. And finally, I want to close with a few remarks on capital management. As you saw, we ended 2022 comfortably above our management target. And our Board of Directors has authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program, which provides us ample flexibility. As always, the timing and the amount of repurchases is subject to various factors, including our capital position and prevailing market conditions, among others. Based on our current expectation for continued earnings growth in combination with our estimated trajectory of AOCI calling to par, we're now resuming buybacks and would expect to return north of 100% of earnings through dividends and buybacks in 2023.

然後在稅收方面，我們預計今年的有效稅率將在 21% 至 22% 的範圍內，這主要是由於今年英國公司稅率的提高。最後，我想就資本管理說幾句。如您所見，我們在 2022 年結束時輕鬆高於我們的管理目標。我們的董事會已批准一項新的 50 億美元股票回購計劃，這為我們提供了充足的靈活性。與往常一樣，回購的時間和數量取決於各種因素，包括我們的資本狀況和現行市場條件等。根據我們目前對持續盈利增長的預期以及我們對 AOCI 的預期軌跡，我們現在正在恢復回購，並預計在 2023 年通過股息和回購回報超過 100% 的收益。

With that, operator, can you please open the line for questions.

有了這個，接線員，你能打開問題熱線嗎？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Brennan Hawken.

我們的第一個問題來自 Brennan Hawken。

First, congrats to Emily on your new role. I'm sure you won't miss our current quarterly, but it was a real pleasure to work with you here these past few years. So I'd love to drill down on the NII expectations. You indicated that it assumes current market rates, but maybe you could please walk us through some of the more specific drivers, primary assumptions and moving pieces that underlie that 20% growth assumption.

首先，祝賀 Emily 擔任新職務。我相信您不會錯過我們當前的季度報告，但過去幾年與您一起工作真的很高興。所以我想深入了解 NII 的期望。你表示它假設了當前的市場利率，但也許你可以向我們介紹一些更具體的驅動因素、主要假設和構成 20% 增長假設基礎的變動因素。

Brennan, it's been great to work with all of you as well. So if you think about the NIR outlook, the first thing I would just mention is that we use the forward curves to as a basis of our projection. So we don't try to get acute. And as all of you know, for the Fed that assumes another 50 basis points of hikes in the first quarter, probably followed by a pause until the end of the year. The curves in -- outside the U.S. or assume about 125 to 150 basis points worth of hikes by both the (inaudible). So as a result of these curves and rising rates as well as, I would say, all of the actions that we've taken in the securities portfolio. And by that, I don't just mean the rebalancing that we did in December, but we obviously positioned the portfolio throughout the year, meaningfully shortening duration, adding floaters, et cetera.

Brennan，和你們所有人一起工作也很棒。因此，如果您考慮 NIR 前景，我首先要提到的是我們使用遠期曲線作為我們預測的基礎。所以我們不要試圖變得敏銳。眾所周知，美聯儲假設在第一季度再加息 50 個基點，然後可能會暫停到年底。美國以外的曲線或假設兩者（聽不清）加息約 125 至 150 個基點。因此，由於這些曲線和利率上升，以及我想說的是，我們在證券投資組合中採取的所有行動。就此而言，我不僅僅指我們在 12 月進行的重新平衡，而且我們顯然在全年都對投資組合進行了定位，有意義地縮短了久期，增加了浮動資產等等。

So with all of that, we do continue to expect to benefit from significantly higher reinvestment yields. Now tempering that a bit, we do expect deposits to decline modestly, call it, low to mid-single digits from fourth quarter average. And finally, as it relates to marginal betas, we would expect them to continue to increase, but of course, more so for non-dollar balances. So that's really what's behind the 20% guide year-on-year. But I would also say there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. And certainly, we're prepared for many different outcomes. It will be highly dependent upon deposit levels. And there's some upside there if we retain more NIV.

因此，儘管如此，我們確實繼續期望從顯著提高的再投資收益率中受益。現在稍微緩和一下，我們確實預計存款會從第四季度平均水平小幅下降到中等個位數。最後，由於它與邊際貝塔有關，我們預計它們會繼續增加，但當然，對於非美元餘額而言更是如此。所以這就是 20% 同比指南背後的真正原因。但我還要說市場上存在很多不確定性。當然，我們已經為許多不同的結果做好了準備。這將高度依賴於存款水平。如果我們保留更多的 NIV，就會有一些好處。

That's very helpful. Capital accretion was really encouraging this quarter. You guys have the rather large buyback announced, and you made some positive comments on it in your prepared remarks, Emily. So how should we -- AOCI was really the, I think, the source of the big surprise from my perspective, how should we be thinking about AOCI accretion if yields remain stable from here? What does that timeline look like?

這很有幫助。本季度的資本增長確實令人鼓舞。你們宣布了相當大的回購，艾米麗，你們在準備好的發言中對此做出了一些積極的評論。那麼我們應該如何——我認為，從我的角度來看，AOCI 真的是令人大吃一驚的來源，如果收益率從這裡保持穩定，我們應該如何考慮 AOCI 的增長？那個時間軸是什麼樣子的？

Sure. So assuming the portfolio doesn't change and forward rates, are realized. The latest -- our latest forecast would expect to recover probably close to 50% of the $2.5 billion of unrealized loss in the AFS portfolio over the course of, call it, 15 to 18 months.

當然。因此，假設投資組合不變並且遠期利率實現。最新的——我們的最新預測預計在 15 到 18 個月的時間裡，AFS 投資組合中 25 億美元的未實現損失可能會恢復近 50%。

Our next question comes from Alex Blostein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Alex Blostein。

Congrats again. I was hoping we could start with a question around fixed income markets. There's generally a broad set of bullishness on the outlook for fixed income flows, particularly with respect to ETFs. I'm curious, as a very large servicer of fixed income assets, and you guys just kind of touched that whole ecosystem in multiple different ways. Can you help us frame how BK's fees overall and servicing fees specifically could benefit from an improved outlook for our -- from fixed income flows, both mutual funds and ETFs. Is there a particular difference when it's like inflows versus outflows. Just hoping to get a little more granularity as we think about the fee outlook for '23.

再次恭喜。我希望我們可以從圍繞固定收益市場的問題開始。人們普遍普遍看好固定收益流動的前景，尤其是 ETF。我很好奇，作為一個非常大的固定收益資產服務商，你們只是以多種不同的方式觸及了整個生態系統。您能否幫助我們確定 BK 的整體費用和服務費如何具體受益於我們的固定收益流（共同基金和 ETF）的前景改善。流入與流出之間有什麼特別的區別嗎？只是希望在我們考慮 23 年的費用前景時獲得更多的粒度。

Sure. So just as we think about the fee outlook, what I would say is just our base case assumption is that there's a relatively soft landing in the U.S., so that would be average equity markets as well as fix it markets not that far off from what we've seen average in 2022. You are correct that our money market platform does benefit that to a degree. Having said that, we do expect some modest runoff in balances as well in money market funds. And what I would also just highlight is that the -- any strength in the fixed income market really does play to the strength of our investment management business.

當然。因此，正如我們考慮費用前景一樣，我想說的只是我們的基本情況假設，即美國的著陸相對軟著陸，因此這將是平均股票市場以及固定市場離什麼不遠我們在 2022 年看到了平均水平。你是對的，我們的貨幣市場平台確實在一定程度上使它受益。話雖如此，我們確實預計貨幣市場基金和余額會出現一些適度流失。我還要強調的是——固定收益市場的任何優勢確實發揮了我們投資管理業務的優勢。

Yes, it's Robin. I would just add a couple of things to that. Just as you think across the breadth of our franchise, and Emily mentioned a couple of them, we have a lot of ores in the water on fixed income generally. So our asset servicing business is fixed income, heavy, that gives rise to a fixed income heavy security lending business. We have a $1.3 trillion worth of cash on our investment platform. So that plays in the short end of the market, which obviously has an overlap with fixed income as well. We have a drivers money market fund, which is done, which is really quite well over the course of the year in terms of performance and asset gathering. We have our treasury business in terms of our clearance business. We have our treasury market repo business. So we've got a lot of different opportunities that come from all of this, and we're obviously paying attention to all of them.

是的，是羅賓。我只想添加幾件事。正如你在我們特許經營權的範圍內所想的那樣，艾米麗提到了其中的幾個，我們通常在固定收益的水中有很多礦石。因此，我們的資產服務業務是固定收益的、重度的，這就產生了固定收益的重度證券貸款業務。我們的投資平台上有價值 1.3 萬億美元的現金。所以這在市場的短期端發揮作用，這顯然也與固定收益有重疊。我們有一個司機貨幣市場基金，它已經完成，在一年中的業績和資產收集方面確實非常好。就我們的清算業務而言，我們有我們的資金業務。我們有我們的國債市場回購業務。所以我們從這一切中得到了很多不同的機會，我們顯然正在關注所有這些機會。

Got you. Great. And then maybe just my follow-up on operating leverage in the business broadly, and you mentioned, Robin, a number of shipping efficiency, programs that you have in place that sounds like they're ramping nicely and it just kind of incorporated in your expense guidance for this year. But when you sort of take a step back and assuming that short-term interest rates remain sort of range bound or whatever the forward purpose forecasting. How are you thinking about the pretax margin for the firm as a whole over time? I'm not sure if you're ready to talk about those targets yet, but in the past, you guys were north of 30%. Is that ultimately the goalpost as you think about the ins and outs of your programs, but also what's going on in the top line?

明白了偉大的。然後，也許只是我對廣泛的業務經營槓桿的後續行動，羅賓，你提到了一些運輸效率，你已經實施的計劃聽起來進展順利，而且它只是融入了你的今年的費用指導。但是，當你退後一步並假設短期利率保持在一定範圍內或任何遠期目的預測時。隨著時間的推移，您如何看待整個公司的稅前利潤率？我不確定你們是否準備好談論這些目標，但在過去，你們超過了 30%。當您考慮程序的來龍去脈時，這最終是球門柱嗎？還有最重要的事情嗎？

So you're right in that we're still working on it. I'm 4.5 months into my tenure. We've talked about the strategy reviews. They are ongoing. We've made some good progress. It's true on the business side. It's also true function and the support side as well, but we are focused to your question on margin. We are focused on driving profitable growth which is top line, but with an eye to the bottom line and also just exuding expense discipline through doing the work.

所以你是對的，我們仍在努力。我的任期還有 4.5 個月。我們已經討論了戰略審查。他們正在進行中。我們取得了一些不錯的進展。在業務方面確實如此。這也是真正的功能和支持方面，但我們專注於您關於保證金的問題。我們專注於推動盈利增長，這是最重要的，但也著眼於底線，並且通過工作來體現支出紀律。

We think we've got a high-performing culture, but we continue to drive on things that relate to that. And I think when you look across revenue growth, pretax margins and ROTCE, you have the key metrics that we're really using. Now we are considering a variety of different KPIs, and we look forward to giving you all more transparency on some of those KPIs as the year progresses. And so as we do the work, we're going to come and talk to you about it.

我們認為我們擁有高績效文化，但我們會繼續推動與此相關的事情。而且我認為，當你審視收入增長、稅前利潤率和 ROTCE 時，你就會擁有我們真正使用的關鍵指標。現在，我們正在考慮各種不同的 KPI，我們期待隨著時間的推移，為您提供其中一些 KPI 的更多透明度。因此，在我們開展工作時，我們將前來與您討論。

Our next question comes from Brian Bedell.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Bedell。

Great working with you over the years. Maybe if you could talk a little bit shift gears a bit to a scenario in which we don't have a soft landing, let's say we do have a recession and a lot of pressure on markets. In that scenario, if we assume that there still is actually pretty good allocation to fixed income, which of course, you benefit from -- can you just talk about throughout your platform, to what extent you would expect to be resilient against that? And some of the areas I'm thinking of or even in deposits where deposit growth could outperform the expectations that you described Emily? And then if you could also just remind us on the fee revenue sensitivity to equity market declines, I think it's 1% plus through every 10%, I think.

多年來與您合作非常愉快。也許如果你能稍微改變一下我們沒有軟著陸的情況，假設我們確實有經濟衰退和市場壓力很大。在那種情況下，如果我們假設實際上仍然有相當好的固定收益分配，當然，你會從中受益——你能不能在整個平台上談談，你希望在多大程度上能夠抵禦這種情況？我正在考慮的一些領域，甚至是存款增長可能超過你描述的 Emily 的預期的存款？然後，如果你也可以提醒我們費用收入對股市下跌的敏感性，我認為每 10% 就會增加 1%。

Sure. So a couple of comments there, and I think Robin will add on probably. So just in terms of our sensitivity overall, our fee sensitivity to fixed income market. Just remember for every 5% or so gradual change in fixed income markets that impacts annual fee revenue to the tune of about $40 million. So that gives you some idea on how to find that. And then certainly, as Robin pointed out earlier, we have many different businesses that ultimately would benefit from also strength in fixed income market.

當然。所以這裡有一些評論，我認為 Robin 可能會補充。因此，就我們的整體敏感性而言，我們對固定收益市場的費用敏感性。請記住，固定收益市場每 5% 左右的逐漸變化都會影響年費收入約 4000 萬美元。這樣您就可以了解如何找到它。當然，正如羅賓之前指出的那樣，我們有許多不同的業務最終也會受益於固定收益市場的強勁勢頭。

But Brian, let me just add something else. One of the things that -- we're a trust bank, we often get obviously compared to trust banks, and I understand why. But have a broader portfolio that I think is quite relevant in answer to your question, particularly, and they happen to be higher growth, higher margin businesses for us. So things like Pershing, things like Treasury Services, our Clearance Business, our Collateral Management Business. And those really do contribute to the underlying diversification that we have as a firm. And that portfolio helps us with the stability of underlying revenues through different market conditions because they're essentially driven by different things, and so we get a balance for that.

但是布賴恩，讓我再補充一點。其中一件事——我們是一家信託銀行，我們經常被明顯地與信託銀行進行比較，我明白為什麼。但是擁有更廣泛的投資組合，我認為這與回答你的問題非常相關，尤其是，它們恰好是我們增長更快、利潤率更高的業務。所以像 Pershing 這樣的事情，比如資金服務，我們的清算業務，我們的抵押品管理業務。這些確實有助於我們作為一家公司所擁有的潛在多元化。該投資組合幫助我們在不同的市場條件下保持基礎收入的穩定性，因為它們本質上是由不同的事物驅動的，因此我們為此取得了平衡。

Now on top of that, we're, of course, thinking about how to make sure that we are increasing the mix of the types of revenues that we have as well. So yes, we have feed. Yes, we have net NIR, but we're also powered by transaction volumes, and we're also powered by subscription fees. And so the combination of the diversification of the businesses and the diversification of the types of revenue streams, we think helps us quite a bit in these different market conditions, and that's why you've seen us, in fact, perform in an effective and relatively stable way through some pretty significant gyrations.

現在最重要的是，我們當然正在考慮如何確保我們也在增加我們擁有的收入類型的組合。所以是的，我們有飼料。是的，我們有淨 NIR，但我們也有交易量的支持，我們也有訂閱費的支持。因此，業務多元化和收入來源類型多元化的結合，我們認為在這些不同的市場條件下對我們有很大幫助，這就是為什麼你看到我們實際上以有效和通過一些相當顯著的迴轉相對穩定的方式。

That's great color. And then maybe, Robin, if you just want to continue on the growth initiatives that you've outlined, Pershing X, the payments venture with digital payments, especially in terms of -- these are definitely long-term investments and trajectories. But maybe if you can sort of think or sort of telegraph what you think might be the contribution this year or just outline what you think might be a reasonable organic growth rate -- revenue growth rate for this year?

那是很棒的顏色。然後，羅賓，如果你只想繼續你概述的增長計劃，Pershing X，數字支付的支付風險，特別是在 - 這些絕對是長期投資和軌跡方面。但也許如果你能有點思考或電報你認為今年的貢獻是什麼，或者只是概述你認為可能是合理的有機增長率——今年的收入增長率？

So look, we've talked about the fact that these are medium-term initiatives, and they are the contribution to revenues today from real-time payments is really small. But we do see this as rails of the future, and we see it as creating an opportunity for a connected set of services. I think prevention and account validation and bill pay related things. So there's an ecosystem that builds around the actual capability. And we think that that's a significant opportunity for us. You've seen some announcements that we've made. But if I tick through very briefly, and I will try to be quick about it, but for each of our businesses.

所以看，我們已經談到了這些是中期計劃的事實，它們是實時支付對當今收入的貢獻非常小。但我們確實將其視為未來的軌道，我們將其視為為一系列互聯服務創造機會。我認為預防和賬戶驗證以及賬單支付相關的事情。因此，有一個圍繞實際功能構建的生態系統。我們認為這對我們來說是一個重要的機會。您已經看到了我們發布的一些公告。但如果我非常簡短地勾選，我會盡量快點，但對於我們的每一個業務。

Look, in Pershing, we've had a strong year of net new asset growth. We talked about it in my prepared remarks. And we think that we'll have growth in the near term through onboarding the pipeline, and then we've got the medium play of Pershing X. In Asset Servicing, we've been growing sales. And at the same time, we're leaning into the future with things like digital assets, and we're focusing on the expense base as well. So again, something for the near term and for the medium term. In markets, we're driving with foreign exchange and liquidity and securities lending and then for the medium term, execution services and new products.

看，在 Pershing，我們經歷了強勁的淨新資產增長年。我們在準備好的發言稿中談到了這一點。我們認為我們將在短期內通過入職管道實現增長，然後我們獲得了 Pershing X 的中等發揮。在資產服務方面，我們的銷售額一直在增長。同時，我們正通過數字資產等方式展望未來，我們也關注費用基礎。再說一次，短期和中期的事情。在市場上，我們正在推動外匯、流動性和證券借貸，然後是中期、執行服務和新產品。

In CCM, we expect the evolution that will come from the granular decanter repo into tri-party, which we think we're well positioned for. In Treasury Services, we're picking up cross-border activity in terms of U.S. dollar clearing and we're playing for the longer term that I talked about with real-time payments. And so across so many of our businesses, we got opportunities in the near term. We're focused on executing them and we're investing for later.

在 CCM 中，我們期待從顆粒狀的 decanter 回購到三方的演變，我們認為我們已經做好了準備。在資金服務方面，我們正在開展美元清算方面的跨境活動，並且我們正在為我談到的實時支付的長期發展而努力。因此，在我們的許多業務中，我們在短期內獲得了機會。我們專注於執行它們，我們正在為以後進行投資。

Our next question comes from Rob Wildhack.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rob Wildhack。

I appreciate the color on deposits for 2023. I wanted to ask a little bit more about what you saw in the quarter. Interest-bearing deposits flipped to growth. Wondering what the drivers are there. And on the noninterest-bearing side, that outflow accelerated quarter-over-quarter. So any more color on either of those would be great.

我很欣賞 2023 年存款的顏色。我想多問一點你在本季度看到的情況。生息存款轉為增長。想知道那裡的驅動程序是什麼。在不計息方面，資金外流環比加速。所以任何一個上的任何顏色都會很棒。

So the deposit balances overall for the quarter were down very modestly as you can see. And most of that was a runoff in nonoperational, but NIBs did and still are remaining at elevated levels. So just for what it's worth when we're talking about the trajectory for deposits in 2023. As I said before, we would expect average deposits to decline very modestly, call it low single digits from fourth quarter averages. And you should expect and we are expecting the large majority of that to be from NIBs because they will probably revert back to about 20%, 25% of our total deposit balances as we've really seen in historical average.

因此，如您所見，本季度的存款餘額總體下降幅度非常小。其中大部分是非運營的徑流，但 NIB 確實並且仍然保持在較高水平。因此，當我們談論 2023 年的存款軌跡時，只是為了它的價值。正如我之前所說，我們預計平均存款將非常溫和地下降，稱之為第四季度平均水平的低個位數。你應該預料到，我們預計其中大部分來自 NIB，因為它們可能會恢復到我們總存款餘額的 20%、25%，正如我們在歷史平均水平上看到的那樣。

Okay. And then, Rob, you highlighted healthy growth in asset servicing as a priority for this year. That's a business that's well established, sometimes can be more difficult to differentiate. So what are the kinds of things you can do and you want to do to accelerate growth there?

好的。然後，Rob，你強調資產服務的健康增長是今年的優先事項。這是一項成熟的業務，有時可能更難以區分。那麼，您可以做哪些事情並想做哪些事情來加速那裡的增長呢？

Well, I'm going to start off on this one, but then I'm going to give it over to Emily because she is going in to run that business and knows it pretty well already from our prior time. But I think there are a variety of different opportunities for us. I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we're really elevating the conversation more into the C-suite of some of these firms because really of the days where we're selling a small component of a service on an isolated basis, we see more opportunities to sell bundled deals with data and digital capabilities, all wrapped up in it. And that we see -- we are getting traction from that. We had a very significant new client that we announced earlier on in the year -- or last year, that is a good example of that type of package sale. So that's one thing.

好吧，我要從這件事開始，但之後我會把它交給艾米麗，因為她將要經營那家公司，並且從我們之前的時間就已經非常了解它了。但我認為我們有各種不同的機會。我在準備好的發言中提到，我們確實將對話更多地提升到了其中一些公司的最高管理層，因為在我們孤立地銷售服務的一小部分的日子裡，我們看到了更多機會出售包含數據和數字功能的捆綁交易，所有這些都包含在其中。我們看到了——我們正在從中獲得動力。我們有一個非常重要的新客戶，我們在今年早些時候宣布 - 或者去年，這是這種打包銷售的一個很好的例子。所以這是一回事。

We also have the bottom line focus. I want to continue to point you at the comments that we've made before that the margin in that business is not acceptable and that we will continue to invest both in the top line, will benefit some from rates and investing in making the cost of execution cheaper and more efficient in that business. So it's really a package of all of the things. I don't know, Emily, if you want to add.

我們也有底線重點。我想繼續向您指出我們之前發表的評論，即該業務的利潤率是不可接受的，我們將繼續投資於收入，將從利率和投資中受益該業務的執行成本更低、效率更高。所以它真的是所有東西的組合。我不知道，艾米麗，如果你想補充。

Yes. Just a few things to add. So as Robin alluded to in his prepared remarks, I mean, we are winning larger and higher-value yields, but we're also very focused on the profitability of the mandate and the relationship overall. And so that also means we're being more selective even in the RFPs that we participate in, likewise we're leaning into higher growth areas like (inaudible) and ETFs. 20% of the wins that we have seen or had a data component and data is very critical, especially in the forward trajectory to our clients. And I would say our pipeline is very strong. And the other thing, of course, as Robin mentioned, is we are very, very focused on driving the cost down across Security Services segment, inclusive of asset servicing for those businesses, which remain pretty manually intensive. So think transfer agency, think fund accounting. So there's opportunity there for sure.

是的。只需添加一些內容。因此，正如羅賓在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我的意思是，我們正在贏得更大和更高價值的收益，但我們也非常關注任務的盈利能力和整體關係。因此，這也意味著即使在我們參與的 RFP 中，我們也更具選擇性，同樣，我們正在傾向於（聽不清）和 ETF 等更高增長的領域。我們已經看到或擁有數據組件的 20% 的勝利，數據非常關鍵，尤其是在我們客戶的前進軌跡中。我會說我們的管道非常強大。當然，正如 Robin 提到的，另一件事是我們非常非常專注於降低整個安全服務部門的成本，包括為那些仍然相當人工密集型的企業提供資產服務。所以想想轉讓代理，想想基金會計。所以那里肯定有機會。

Our next question comes from Steven Chubak.

我們的下一個問題來自 Steven Chubak。

So Emily, I'm going to ask the question I had asked you 12 months ago, roughly on the earnings call about Basel IV. We still don't have a proposal, but we know something is coming in early '23. And given his speech had hinted at capital requirements moving higher for the G-SIB cohort, recognizing there is still no proposal, but I was hoping you could just speak to how your scenario planning for the finalization of Basel III, whether that has any influence on the potential cadence of future buybacks or just capital management more broadly, how you see that potentially evolving?

所以艾米麗，我要問我 12 個月前問過你的問題，大致是在有關巴塞爾協議 IV 的財報電話會議上。我們仍然沒有提案，但我們知道 23 年初會有一些東西出現。鑑於他的演講暗示 G-SIB 隊列的資本要求更高，認識到仍然沒有提案，但我希望你能談談你如何為巴塞爾協議 III 的最終確定制定情景規劃，這是否有任何影響關於未來回購或更廣泛的資本管理的潛在節奏，您如何看待這種潛在的演變？

Sure. So look, we're obviously very involved with regulators in the industry around the conversations around Basel IV. It's true. Of course, the introduction of operating or operational risk RWA into the standardized approach would, by itself, drive an increase in our standardized RWAs. When we crunch the numbers, our talks suggest something a bit less than probably what you've seen for the G-SIB aggregate in the QIS. And there are also -- we do also expect there are going to be some offset for us. So lower (inaudible), lower credit risk RWAs and also will probably benefit modestly from a more risk-sensitive market to market, the more risk sensitive market framework. So, there'll be puts and takes. We'll have to wait, really, until the regulators release their proposed version. And we already -- and we do obviously -- for us, we're always looking at RWA optimization. You can actually see that RWAs came down in the quarter, again from optimization that we have been ongoing, that's ongoing and we've been doing. And I would just remind you, too, that the industry will have time to leg into whatever the results end up being.

當然。所以看，我們顯然非常參與圍繞巴塞爾協議 IV 的對話的行業監管機構。這是真的。當然，將操作或操作風險 RWA 引入標準化方法本身會推動我們標準化 RWA 的增加。當我們處理這些數字時，我們的談話所暗示的東西可能比您在 QIS 中看到的 G-SIB 總量要少一些。而且還有 - 我們確實也希望對我們有一些抵消。因此，較低（聽不清）、較低的信用風險風險加權資產，也可能會從對風險更敏感的市場到市場、對風險更敏感的市場框架中適度受益。所以，會有放和放。實際上，我們必須等到監管機構發布他們提議的版本。我們已經——而且我們顯然這樣做了——對我們來說，我們一直在關注 RWA 優化。實際上，您可以看到 RWA 在本季度有所下降，再次來自我們一直在進行的優化，我們一直在進行優化。我也想提醒你，無論結果如何，該行業都有時間參與進來。

Fair enough. And just for my follow-up on expenses. I was hoping you can help us reconcile what the expense guidance for '23 implies for both the (inaudible) margin and dollars of expense as it relates to the Security Services segment specifically, it feels like that's the area where there's still some of the most low-hanging fruit if you will, to drive efficiency gains. And just given the planned efficiency actions, how should we think about that second derivative for expense growth? Should we expect that to steadily improve over the course of the year, where you implement the plan, you start to realize some of the benefits and the exit rate on expenses, therefore, in '23 should reflect a lower level of expense growth relative to the other quarters.

很公平。只是為了我的後續費用。我希望您能幫助我們調和 23 年的費用指南對（聽不清）利潤和費用美元的含義，因為它特別與安全服務部門相關，感覺這是仍然有一些最多的領域如果願意，可以輕鬆實現目標，以提高效率。考慮到計劃中的效率行動，我們應該如何考慮費用增長的二階導數？我們是否應該期望在一年中穩步改善，在實施計劃的地方，您開始實現一些收益和費用退出率，因此，23 年應該反映出相對於較低水平的費用增長其他宿舍。

So I'll kind of answer that more focused on margin for security services because that's really what we've been talking about is a very critical KPI for us. So -- and I think Robin already said, we are very committed to a 30-plus percent margin over the medium term. You'll see we printed in the fourth quarter margin of about 27% for the full year, that was closer to 21%. In 2023, we will benefit somewhat from NIR. So higher rates will partially offset perhaps by a modest decline in NIBs. Also, we are absolutely extraordinarily focused on executing against the revenue growth as well as the efficiency initiatives that we have been talking about.

所以我會更關注安全服務的利潤率，因為這確實是我們一直在談論的，對我們來說是一個非常關鍵的 KPI。所以——我認為羅賓已經說過，我們非常致力於在中期實現 30% 以上的利潤率。你會看到我們在第四季度全年的利潤率約為 27%，接近 21%。 2023 年，我們將從 NIR 中受益。因此，更高的利率可能會被 NIB 的適度下降部分抵消。此外，我們絕對非常專注於執行我們一直在談論的收入增長和效率計劃。

When you think about security services, though, I'd also just mentioned, there's going to be some nonrecurring activity that we enjoyed in 2022 that we won't have in 2023 in issuer services in particular. So kind of net-net, putting it all together, when you look at the margins for security services overall, there they're going to be lower than what we printed in Q4, but certainly higher than the full year level. So we're making progress.

不過，當你考慮安全服務時，我剛才也提到過，我們將在 2022 年享受一些非經常性活動，特別是在 2023 年我們不會在發行人服務中進行。這樣的網絡，把所有的東西放在一起，當你看一下安全服務的整體利潤率時，它們將低於我們在第四季度打印的利潤率，但肯定高於全年水平。所以我們正在取得進展。

And just the expense growth, firm wide basis, whether the exit rate for '23 should reflect some of those additional efficiency benefits that you had cited. I'm just trying to think about the cadence for how we should think about the expense trajectory over the course of the year.

只是費用增長，公司廣泛的基礎，'23 的退出率是否應該反映您提到的一些額外的效率優勢。我只是想考慮一下我們應該如何考慮一年中的支出軌蹟的節奏。

Yes. So I'm not going to kind of give huge detail on what we expect quarter-on-quarter. I mean the only thing I would say just (inaudible) for the first quarter, staff expenses are typically a bit higher due to long-term incentive comp associated with retirement-eligible employees. And of course, the actions we're taking, they're front-loaded, but you'll see that over the course of the year. So I think I would just go back to, we are absolutely bending the cost curve. We are expecting to deliver and are very committed to deliver year-on-year growth of about 4%, 4.5% constant currency. And again, that compares to 8% in 2022.

是的。因此，我不會詳細說明我們對季度環比的預期。我的意思是我唯一要說的是第一季度（聽不清），由於與符合退休條件的員工相關的長期激勵補償，員工費用通常會更高一些。當然，我們正在採取的行動是前期工作，但你會在一年中看到這一點。所以我想我會回到過去，我們絕對是在彎曲成本曲線。我們期待並非常致力於實現約 4% 的同比增長，4.5% 的固定匯率。同樣，與 2022 年的 8% 相比。

Our next question comes from Mike Mayo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Mike Mayo。

I think you inherited a tough hand here. So I mean BNY Mellon historically has had periods when they do a better job controlling expenses, but that typically coincides with periods of slower top line growth, but you're starting off here, fees were down 3% last year. Looks like your guide for NII implies that's flat with the fourth quarter. So it's not so much, okay, revenues are slow, you can control expenses so much they've already slow or they're about to. So it just seems like your efficiency savings are going to be tougher. And as part of that, this predates you, Robin, but when it comes to notable items or onetime items, you had some this quarter, but if you look over a decade, your notable items add up to $3.5 billion. That's almost a year's worth of earnings.

我認為你在這裡繼承了一手強硬的手。所以我的意思是，紐約梅隆銀行在歷史上曾有過更好地控制開支的時期，但這通常與收入增長放緩的時期相吻合，但你從這裡開始，去年費用下降了 3%。看起來你的 NII 指南暗示這與第四季度持平。所以它不是那麼多，好吧，收入很慢，你可以控制開支，他們已經放緩或即將放緩。所以看起來你的效率節約會變得更加艱難。作為其中的一部分，這比你早，羅賓，但當涉及到值得注意的項目或一次性項目時，你本季度有一些，但如果你看過去十年，你的值得注意的項目總計達 35 億美元。這幾乎是一年的收入。

So the real question here is how can you improve your profit margin and your efficiency ratio and squeeze more out of BNY Mellon when the revenue environment has been tough and have inflationary pressures. I guess how confident are you to turn this around in terms of the positive operating leverage on a core basis?

因此，這裡真正的問題是，當收入環境嚴峻且存在通脹壓力時，您如何才能提高利潤率和效率比並從紐約梅隆銀行擠出更多資金。我想你有多大信心在核心基礎上的積極運營槓桿方面扭轉這一局面？

So Mike, without reflecting on the past in terms of what people have done and how they've done it, I'll just say that we acknowledge that the past decade has been disappointing in terms of our company's broad financial performance. You can look at some spots on the top line, the bottom line expenses, we pick your spot, but we're not comfortable with the broad performance of the company over the past decade. And that's how we've talked to our Board about it. That's how we talk to our employees about it, and we're determined to change that. And so you're hearing from us, I think, I hope, a determination around changing that outcome.

所以邁克，在不反思過去人們做了什麼以及他們是如何做的情況下，我只想說，我們承認過去十年在我們公司的廣泛財務業績方面令人失望。你可以看看頂線的一些點，底線費用，我們選擇你的位置，但我們對公司過去十年的廣泛表現並不滿意。這就是我們與董事會討論此事的方式。這就是我們與員工談論它的方式，我們決心改變這種狀況。所以你從我們這裡聽到，我想，我希望，改變這一結果的決心。

Now to your question, let me take the 2 parts of the things that you've really talked about. So first of all, the notable items. And so we are very, very clear, and we do this in our earnings release, and we do it in our prepared remarks, we talk GAAP first. So you can see the reported numbers, and it's very clear and you can judge us on that, but we also want to give you the transparency, and frankly, the insight into the way that we're running the company under the hood. And we think that's why that additional element of disclosure is helpful, but you'll make your judgment based on that transparency and the insights that we're trying to provide.

現在回答你的問題，讓我來談談你真正談到的事情的兩部分。首先，值得注意的項目。所以我們非常非常清楚，我們在收益發布中這樣做，我們在準備好的評論中這樣做，我們首先談論 GAAP。所以你可以看到報告的數字，它非常清楚，你可以據此判斷我們，但我們也想給你透明度，坦率地說，讓你深入了解我們在幕後運營公司的方式。我們認為這就是為什麼額外的披露元素是有幫助的，但你會根據透明度和我們試圖提供的見解做出判斷。

Now I own that 4% to 4.5% number, 4%, if use the exit rate of currency, 4.5% on a constant currency basis, and that's essentially half of what it was in 2022. And the environment, from an inflation point of view, isn't expected to get any better. We had inflation over the course of the past few months, CPI between 6-and-change and 9-and-change, we've still got that environment. But we've been very deliberate in terms of staffing, choices of things that we're going to do, choices of how we're going to do it. I talked to my prepared remarks about a variety of involving our employees in bending the cost curve because I think it's a cultural thing for us as well. We're attacking it on all of those fronts. Now once we've done all of those things to the implied question of what do we think the future holds.

現在我擁有 4% 到 4.5% 的數字，4%，如果使用貨幣退出率，在固定貨幣基礎上為 4.5%，這基本上是 2022 年的一半。還有環境，從通貨膨脹點來看看來，預計不會變得更好。在過去的幾個月裡，我們經歷了通貨膨脹，CPI 在 6-and-change 和 9-and-change 之間，我們仍然有那種環境。但我們在人員配置、我們將要做的事情的選擇以及我們將如何做的選擇方面非常慎重。我談到了我準備好的關於讓我們的員工參與彎曲成本曲線的各種評論，因為我認為這對我們來說也是一種文化。我們正在所有這些方面對其進行攻擊。現在，一旦我們完成了所有這些事情，就可以解決我們認為未來會怎樣的隱含問題。

Well, we don't want to stop there. We don't have line of sight to all of the things that we're going to do in the future, but we see opportunities. For instance, I'm just going to pick one and then I'll finish, which is on technology. We've invested a ton rightly so, in resiliency as a company. Resiliency is incredibly important to our products and services. It's wrapped up in our brand, and we wanted to make sure that we really took ourselves to a better place than where we were 5 years ago, but now we've largely done that.

好吧，我們不想就此打住。我們看不到未來要做的所有事情，但我們看到了機會。例如，我只選擇一個，然後我將完成，這是關於技術的。作為一家公司，我們已經正確地投資了大量資金來提高彈性。彈性對我們的產品和服務非常重要。它包含在我們的品牌中，我們想確保我們真的把自己帶到了一個比 5 年前更好的地方，但現在我們基本上做到了。

It's a continuous journey. We always have to do stuff. But the next leg for us is investing in things like the applications, the digitization of our footprint. We're the world's largest custodian, but we've got more than 1 custody system. We've got multiple loan systems. We've got 5 different call centers. And so we're going in and seeing all of these opportunities.

這是一個連續的旅程。我們總是要做一些事情。但我們的下一步是投資於應用程序、足跡數字化等方面。我們是世界上最大的託管機構，但我們擁有不止一個託管系統。我們有多種貸款系統。我們有 5 個不同的呼叫中心。因此，我們將進入並看到所有這些機會。

And then over time, we'll do the work to resolve the issues. But we can't do it all at once because otherwise, we'd spike on the expense base in order to solve the problems, and we only have finite bandwidth. So we're working through it, and we'll continue to work through it.

然後隨著時間的推移，我們將努力解決問題。但我們不能一次完成所有工作，否則，我們會為了解決問題而增加費用，而我們只有有限的帶寬。所以我們正在解決它，我們將繼續解決它。

That would be great if you can share more of those metrics over time and how -- what your targets are. The other part of that is your -- you said you have 4 growth initiatives. You did mention digital assets and post the recent debacle. Can you put any concrete metrics to put more meat on the bones as far as where you'd like to eventually get to or revenues or what's the endgame just something more on this all, it's one of your 4 key growth initiatives. Just a little bit more color.

如果你能隨著時間的推移分享更多這些指標以及如何——你的目標是什麼，那就太好了。另一部分是你的 - 你說你有 4 個增長計劃。你確實提到了數字資產並發布了最近的崩潰。你能不能提出任何具體的指標來把更多的肉放在骨頭上，就你最終想要達到的目標或收入或最終結果是什麼而言，這是你的 4 項關鍵增長計劃之一。只是多了一點顏色。

Sure. So I just want to make one comment about the 4 things that I mentioned and that you're quoting. Those aren't the only growth initiatives in the company. I pick them out because I think they're good and representative examples, but -- and they're different things, and they have different timelines associated with them as well. But there are other things that I haven't mentioned, at least haven't given great as much prominence to, but that could be very interesting to us over time. But specifically for digital assets, it's the longest term play out of any of the things that we talked about.

當然。所以我只想對我提到的和您引用的 4 件事發表評論。這些並不是公司唯一的增長舉措。我把它們挑出來是因為我認為它們是很好的、有代表性的例子，但是——它們是不同的東西，它們也有不同的時間表。但還有其他事情我沒有提到，至少沒有給予那麼多的重視，但隨著時間的推移，這對我們來說可能會非常有趣。但特別是對於數字資產，這是我們討論過的所有事情中最長的一次。

I expect it to be negligible from a revenue point of view over the course of the next couple of years, it might be negligible for the next 5 years, but as the world's largest custodian, we are in the business of looking after stuff. We look after $44 trillion worth of stuff. And if there's going to be new stuff to look after, we should be in the business of looking after it.

我預計在接下來的幾年裡，從收入的角度來看，它可以忽略不計，未來 5 年可能可以忽略不計，但作為世界上最大的保管人，我們從事的是照料工作。我們管理著價值 44 萬億美元的東西。如果要照顧新東西，我們就應該照顧它。

If the way in which we look after stuff, which is the point about the technology changes, we have to adapt to that. And so we're investing for a future that probably will come to be, but it may not. But if it does come to be, we have to be there. It would be like being the custodian of 50 years ago and sticking with paper and not adopting a computer. That's not going to be us. So we're investing. We're being cautious. We're being deliberate and we've got R&D in different parts of the company, and it's measured. But we do think it's important for us to participate in the broader digital asset space.

如果我們處理事物的方式，也就是技術發生變化的要點，我們必須適應它。因此，我們正在為一個可能會實現但也可能不會實現的未來進行投資。但如果真的發生了，我們就必須在那裡。這就像 50 年前的保管人，堅持使用紙張而不採用計算機。那不會是我們。所以我們在投資。我們很謹慎。我們是深思熟慮的，我們在公司的不同部門進行了研發，並且進行了衡量。但我們確實認為參與更廣泛的數字資產領域對我們來說很重要。

Our next question comes from Gerard Cassidy.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gerard Cassidy。

Emily, on the noninterest-bearing deposits, you mentioned how they are a little higher than normal. I think you said 27% of total deposits, but you do expect them -- I think you said to drop to more normal levels, 20% to 25%. What's keeping them up so high? And second, could they remain maybe higher for longer this year? Or do you see some real trends that now they're definitely going to get back to normal?

艾米麗，關於無息存款，你提到它們比正常水平高一點。我想你說的是總存款的 27%，但你確實期望它們——我想你說的是下降到更正常的水平，20% 到 25%。是什麼讓他們保持如此高的水平？其次，它們今年能否保持更高的時間更長？或者您是否看到一些真正的趨勢，現在它們肯定會恢復正常？

Great question. And frankly, there is a lot of uncertainty around that. So look, more generally, as it relates to NIBs, we think it's -- they're high. They're probably elevated because of certainly some risk-off behavior. The other thing that I really mentioned is that we've gotten a lot more sophisticated too in just how we manage our deposits and the tools in which we manage our deposits. So I think there's something to that also as well. We do expect the NIBs to revert to about 20% to 25%, but you're right.

很好的問題。坦率地說，這方面存在很多不確定性。所以看，更一般地說，因為它與 NIB 相關，我們認為它 - 它們很高。由於某些避險行為，它們可能會升高。我真正提到的另一件事是，我們在管理存款的方式和管理存款的工具方面也變得更加複雜。所以我認為這也有一定的道理。我們確實希望 NIB 恢復到大約 20% 到 25%，但你是對的。

I mean to the extent they remain elevated, that it's going to be very helpful and will have upside to our NIR projection. And look, the only other thing I'd mention is that we've seen significant growth in, for example, Asset Servicing, Corporate Trust, et cetera, which in actually those businesses attract NIBs.

我的意思是，就它們保持高位而言，這將非常有幫助，並且對我們的 NIR 預測有好處。看，我唯一要提到的另一件事是，我們已經看到資產服務、企業信託等領域的顯著增長，實際上這些業務吸引了 NIB。

Very good. We all know that, obviously, your bank is a fee-based bank, it is not a bank than any of us are concerned about credit quality. But I would just like to get your guys' thoughts. You had a small provision increase, again, nothing material. And again, I emphasize nobody is really concerned about Bank of New York's credit quality. But with the expectation of a soft recession or a slowdown, whatever you want to call it, are you guys seeing any trends in the loan book that you're just watching maybe a little more closely today than 12 months ago?

非常好。我們都知道，很明顯，你們的銀行是收費銀行，它不是我們任何一個銀行都關心的信用質量。但我只是想听聽你們的想法。你有一個小的準備金增加，同樣，沒有什麼實質性的。再次強調，沒有人真正關心紐約銀行的信用質量。但是，隨著對軟衰退或經濟放緩的預期，無論你想怎麼稱呼它，你們是否看到了你今天可能比 12 個月前更密切關注的貸款簿中的任何趨勢？

So just as a reminder, and I think you've already alluded to it. The quality of our portfolio remains very high. So weighted average rating of A, A-minus, investment grade is over 90%. NPLs and delinquencies are stable. The only area that, of course, we're monitoring very closely is the CRE portion of the portfolio and the office segment in particular. At the moment, occupancy and rent collections remain high, but it is an area that we're paying closer attention to.

提醒一下，我想你已經提到了。我們產品組合的質量仍然非常高。所以加權平均評級為A，A-，投資級別超過90%。不良貸款和拖欠率穩定。當然，我們正在密切關注的唯一領域是投資組合中的 CRE 部分，尤其是寫字樓部分。目前，入住率和租金收入仍然很高，但這是我們正在密切關注的領域。

And what percentage of that the CRE of the loan book is that about, Emily?

艾米麗，貸款賬簿的 CRE 的百分比是多少？

It's about 9% of the funded loans.

這大約是融資貸款的9%。

Our next question comes from Ken Usdin.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ken Usdin。

Robin, I know you talked earlier just about the general view for fees to increase and some thoughts on Asset Servicing. Just wondering if you have a view on just what you think organic growth can look like? And also, it's nice to also see some of the movement in the fourth quarter in specifically in Pershing and collateral Management. Just wondering if you have a thumb now on what the outlook for those 2 areas is as well.

羅賓，我知道你之前談到了對增加費用的普遍看法以及對資產服務的一些想法。只是想知道您是否對您認為有機增長的樣子有看法？而且，很高興看到第四季度的一些變化，特別是在 Pershing 和抵押品管理方面。只是想知道您現在是否也了解這兩個領域的前景。

Sure. So from an overall fees point of view, we are focused on this internal growth forgetting about M&A or any of those other ways to grow, just the blocking and tackling and execution of what we think we can do in the company over the course of the year. We haven't given fee guidance because of the reasons that Emily alluded to, which is there are just so many things going on in the market. There are just too many puts and takes for that to be credible for us so that we are -- but we, of course, have our internal budget, and that's what we've been working through over the course of time.

當然。因此，從整體費用的角度來看，我們專注於這種內部增長，忘記了併購或任何其他增長方式，只是阻止、處理和執行我們認為我們可以在整個過程中在公司做的事情年。由於 Emily 提到的原因，我們沒有給出費用指導，即市場上發生的事情太多了。有太多的投入和投入使我們不可信，所以我們 - 但我們當然有內部預算，這就是我們一直在努力完成的工作。

Look, you called out 2 businesses and those are businesses where we both -- where we think those are bright spots for growth. And so we expect those to be above the average growth of the company. They're not the only ones that would be above the average, but they are 2 that would be, and we feel quite good about the prospects for a variety of the different underlying reasons that we've talked about already.

看，你召集了 2 家企業，我們都認為這些企業是增長的亮點。因此，我們預計這些增長將高於公司的平均增長。他們不是唯一高於平均水平的，但他們有 2 個會高於平均水平，而且由於我們已經討論過的各種不同的潛在原因，我們對前景感到非常滿意。

Okay. Very good. And then just one quick one in terms of that follow-up on the balance sheet mix. Emily, is there anything changing with regard to how you think about the mix of securities that you add from here in terms of as we get towards the peak of the rate cycle, whether you start thinking about putting on more fixed rate versus the floating type, and what that means for the types of yields that you're able to get on your kind of front book investments?

好的。非常好。然後就資產負債表組合的後續行動而言，只是一個快速的問題。艾米麗，隨著我們接近利率週期的高峰，您對從這裡添加的證券組合的看法是否有任何變化，您是否開始考慮投入更多的固定利率而不是浮動類型，這對於您能夠從您的前台投資中獲得的收益類型意味著什麼？

Sure. So there's a lot in there. So look, we've been very nimble and continue to be very nimble in terms of managing our portfolio. bottom line right now, we're positioned to benefit from higher rates, but I just call everyone's attention to the fact that the duration of our portfolio is the shortest to spin in recent memory and more than 60% of the portfolio is available for sale. So we've really retained a lot of flexibility, and we can act very swiftly should the environment ultimately change. And as it relates to reinvestment yields, I guess it was in the second quarter, I believe, in 2022 that the investment range began to exceed roll-off rates. The difference between the two has steadily expanded to about 250 basis points in the second quarter.

當然。所以里面有很多東西。所以看，我們在管理我們的投資組合方面一直非常靈活，並將繼續非常靈活。現在的底線是，我們可以從更高的利率中受益，但我只是提醒大家注意一個事實，即我們的投資組合的持續時間是最近記憶中最短的，超過 60% 的投資組合可供出售.所以我們確實保留了很大的靈活性，如果環境最終發生變化，我們可以非常迅速地採取行動。由於它與再投資收益率有關，我想是在第二季度，我相信，在 2022 年，投資範圍開始超過滾動率。兩者的差距在二季度穩步擴大至250個基點左右。

And when you just think about how much of the portfolio resets at any moment in time, about 40%, as I said, of the security, or you can see it 40% of the securities portfolio is quoting right assets. And the duration of the fixed asset securities is about 3 years. So you can kind of do the math there.

當你想想有多少投資組合在任何時候都會及時重置，正如我所說，大約 40% 的證券，或者你可以看到，40% 的證券投資組合正在引用正確的資產。而固定資產證券的存續期約為3年。所以你可以在那裡做數學。

And our final question will come from Michael Brown.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Michael Brown。

Great. Most of them have been answered. I guess my question was kind of as we think about further out into 2023. And so the market is assuming some rate cuts could occur before year-end. As we get -- if you get to that point, what is your view on how deposit pricing performs there, right? Because if your deposit bidders were generally higher than the broader banking system on the way up, how do we think about it to the point where we start to see some early rate cuts because I guess in that backdrop, it's not an expectation that we're heading back to where we were, just some modest free cuts. So how do you think about the deposit pricing in that environment?

偉大的。其中大部分已得到答复。我想我的問題有點像我們考慮到 2023 年更遠的時候。因此市場假設年底前可能會降息。正如我們所得到的——如果你到了那一點，你對存款定價在那裡的表現有何看法，對嗎？因為如果您的存款競標者在上升過程中普遍高於更廣泛的銀行系統，那麼我們如何考慮它到我們開始看到一些早期降息的地步，因為我想在這種背景下，這不是我們的期望回到我們原來的地方，只是一些適度的免費削減。那麼你如何看待那種環境下的存款定價呢？

Sure. I'll take that. So we do expect deposit pricing to perform similarly on the way down as it did on the way up. So we'll get the benefit, of course, because our -- we will get the benefit should rates suddenly start to come down, deposit costs also coming down very quickly. And likewise, I'll just remind you that to the extent that rates start to come down, then AOCI will pull the par faster.

當然。我會接受的。因此，我們確實預計存款定價在下跌時的表現與上漲時的表現相似。所以我們當然會從中受益，因為如果利率突然開始下降，我們會從中受益，存款成本也會迅速下降。同樣，我只是提醒你，在利率開始下降的情況下，AOCI 將更快地拉低標準桿。

Okay. Great. And then just one more on NII, appreciate the full year annual guidance. As you look at the fourth quarter, it was up about 14% sequentially. Within the annual guidance, any view on how we should think about the first quarter? I know it's a moving target, but any range here just to help us think about the trajectory.

好的。偉大的。然後再看 NII，欣賞全年的年度指導。看看第四季度，它環比增長了約 14%。在年度指導中，我們應該如何看待第一季度有什麼看法？我知道這是一個移動目標，但這裡的任何範圍都只是為了幫助我們考慮軌跡。

Yes. As I mentioned, the range of outcomes is very wide. So it's really hard to predict the trajectory in any given quarter. It really is very dependent, probably most specifically on the deposit trajectory, and like I said, if NIBs remain elevated, there's upside there.

是的。正如我提到的，結果的範圍非常廣泛。因此，很難預測任何給定季度的軌跡。它確實非常依賴，可能最具體地取決於存款軌跡，就像我說的，如果 NIBs 保持高位，那就有上行空間。

And with that, that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. I would like to hand the call back over to Robin for any additional or closing remarks.

這樣，我們今天的問答環節就結束了。我想將電話轉回給羅賓，以徵求任何補充意見或結束意見。

Thank you, operator. I'd like to close today's call by thanking Emily for her time as our CFO and to congratulate her on taking up her new role, starting February 1 as the CEO of Asset Servicing, which as you know, is our largest business.

謝謝你，運營商。在結束今天的電話會議時，我想感謝艾米麗擔任我們的首席財務官，並祝賀她擔任新職務，從 2 月 1 日開始擔任資產服務的首席執行官，如您所知，這是我們最大的業務。

Emily brings a set of experiences and relationships to this role that are going to be invaluable in driving profitable growth of our client franchise. And finally, I'd like to welcome Dermot McDonough, our next CFO, to the BNY Mellon team. He joined us in November, and he's hit the ground running. I know that you are all looking forward to his first earnings call with him in April. So with that, I'd like to thank you for your interest in BNY Mellon. And if you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to Marius and the IR team. Be well.

Emily 為這個角色帶來了一系列經驗和關係，這對於推動我們客戶特許經營的盈利增長非常寶貴。最後，我要歡迎我們的下一任首席財務官 Dermot McDonough 加入紐約梅隆銀行團隊。他於 11 月加入了我們，並且已經開始運作。我知道你們都很期待他在 4 月份與他的第一次財報電話會議。因此，我要感謝您對紐約梅隆銀行的興趣。如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 Marius 和 IR 團隊。好起來。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference and webcast. A replay of this conference call and webcast will be available on the BNY Mellon Investor Relations website at 02:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time today. Have a great day.

謝謝你。今天的會議和網絡廣播到此結束。本次電話會議和網絡廣播的重播將於美國東部時間下午 02:00 在 BNY Mellon 投資者關係網站上提供。今天東部標準時間。祝你有美好的一天。