Big Lots Inc (BIG) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Big Lots fourth quarter conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加 Biglots 第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

On the call today are Jonathan Ramsden, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer; and Jack Pestello, Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer.

今天的電話會議是執行副總裁、首席財務和行政官 Jonathan Ramsden；以及執行副總裁兼首席營銷官 Jack Pestello。

Before we start today's call, the company would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made on the call involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to the company's safe harbor provisions as stated in the company's press release and SEC filings and that actual results can differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. The company would like to also point out that, where applicable, commentary today is focused on adjusted non-GAAP results. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP adjusted results are available in today's press release.

在我們開始今天的電話會議之前，公司想提醒您，在電話會議上所做的任何前瞻性陳述都涉及風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性受公司新聞稿和美國證券交易委員會文件中所述的公司安全港條款以及實際結果的約束可能與前瞻性陳述中描述的內容存在重大差異。該公司還想指出，在適用的情況下，今天的評論側重於調整後的非公認會計原則結果。今天的新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 調整結果的對賬。

The company's fourth quarter earnings release and related financial information are available at biglots.com/corporate/investors. Also available on the website is the previously released January investor presentation, highlighting key themes from this call.

該公司的第四季度收益發布和相關財務信息可在 biglots.com/corporate/investors 獲得。網站上還提供先前發布的 1 月份投資者演示文稿，重點介紹了此次電話會議的關鍵主題。

I will now turn the call over to Jonathan Ramsden, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer of Big Lots. Mr. Ramsden, please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給 Biglots 的執行副總裁、首席財務和行政官 Jonathan Ramsden。拉姆斯登先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Unfortunately, Bruce Thorn is not able to join the call this morning due to an urgent medical situation involving one of his parents. Our thoughts are with Bruce and his family.

謝謝大家，大家早上好。不幸的是，布魯斯·索恩（Bruce Thorn）由於其中一位父母的緊急醫療狀況而無法參加今天早上的電話會議。我們與布魯斯和他的家人在一起。

I'm going to read Bruce's prepared remarks this morning and then continue with my own commentary on our financial performance. After the prepared remarks, Jack Pestello, our Chief Merchandising Officer, will join me for the question-and-answer session.

今天早上我將閱讀布魯斯準備好的評論，然後繼續我自己對我們財務業績的評論。在準備好的發言之後，我們的首席營銷官 Jack Pestello 將和我一起參加問答環節。

The following are Bruce's prepared comments. I'm glad you are joining us for this morning's call as we have a lot of exciting ground to cover. Today, I want to focus on updating you on the forward-looking opportunities that we more fulsomely introduced last quarter and discuss the excellent progress that we are making.

以下是布魯斯準備好的評論。我很高興你能加入我們今天上午的電話會議，因為我們有很多令人興奮的領域要討論。今天，我想重點向您介紹我們在上個季度更全面介紹的前瞻性機會，並討論我們正在取得的出色進展。

As you know, we are fully committed to delivering tremendous shareholder value through Operation North Star. Our confidence continues to strengthen in our strategy, our long runway for profitable growth and our ability to generate consistent strong cash flow and shareholder returns. All of this leverages our clear positioning as a home discount retailer, our unique assortment, rapidly developing omnichannel capabilities and growing base of loyal customers. Perhaps most importantly, we know that value never goes out of style.

如您所知，我們完全致力於通過“北極星行動”為股東創造巨大價值。我們對我們的戰略、盈利增長的長期道路以及我們產生持續強勁現金流和股東回報的能力的信心繼續增強。所有這一切都利用了我們作為家庭折扣零售商的明確定位、我們獨特的品類、快速發展的全渠道能力和不斷增長的忠誠客戶群。也許最重要的是，我們知道價值永遠不會過時。

The path to grow the top line of our business by several billion dollars over the coming years is clear and is driven by 3 key pillars: merchandising productivity, real estate growth and e-commerce, each of which strengthen and accelerate our positioning as a value-obsessed home discount retailer, the home of the hunt for a broad and diversified assortment not easily replicated on a national scale. These drivers were evident in 2021, which ended as our second best year ever in terms of sales and adjusted earnings per share, despite unprecedented dislocation in the global supply chain.

未來幾年將我們的業務收入增長數十億美元的道路是明確的，由三個關鍵支柱驅動：商品生產力、房地產增長和電子商務，每一個都加強和加速我們作為價值的定位- 痴迷於家庭折扣零售商，尋找廣泛而多樣化的產品系列，不容易在全國范圍內復制。這些驅動因素在 2021 年很明顯，儘管全球供應鏈出現了前所未有的錯位，但在銷售額和調整後每股收益方面，這還是我們有史以來第二好的一年。

For a second year in a row, we delivered sales above $6 billion, far above where we hovered for a decade leading up to 2020. And we delivered phenomenal customer experiences in 2021 as our Net Promoter Score averaged over 80, in the top quartile for retailers, and our recent trends are at or even better than last year's levels.

連續第二年，我們實現了超過 60 億美元的銷售額，遠高於我們在 2020 年前十年徘徊的水平。我們在 2021 年提供了非凡的客戶體驗，因為我們的淨推薦值平均超過 80，在零售商，我們最近的趨勢與去年的水平相當，甚至更好。

Our team of over 36,000 associates delivered this excellent 2021 while navigating many uncertainties throughout the year, from early Q1 stimulus through a frenetic January with weather, Omicron and supply chain volatility. The team provided countless excellent experiences in-store and online so that our customers could continue despite what was going on in the macro environment to Live BIG and Save Lots. Thank you, team.

我們由 36,000 多名員工組成的團隊實現了這一出色的 2021 年，同時在全年中應對了許多不確定性，從第一季度初期的刺激措施到天氣、Omicron 和供應鏈波動的狂熱 1 月。該團隊在店內和在線提供了無數出色的體驗，以便我們的客戶可以繼續儘管宏觀環境中發生的事情，以實現大生活和節省很多。謝謝你，團隊。

2021 was a win but for more than just our financial results. During 2021's journey, our team took away many important lessons from the year through the constant need to be agile and nimble, through our test-and-learn culture, from our investments in the supply chain, from our accelerated real estate program and through our strengthening vendor relationships. All of these lessons are being woven into and are enhancing our Operation North Star strategies, and I have never been more excited. I encourage you to reference our January investor presentation, where we provide more color on our strategies and financial goals.

2021 年是一場胜利，但不僅僅是為了我們的財務業績。在 2021 年的旅程中，我們的團隊從這一年中吸取了許多重要的經驗教訓，因為我們不斷需要敏捷和敏捷，我們的測試和學習文化，我們對供應鏈的投資，我們加速的房地產計劃以及我們的加強供應商關係。所有這些課程都被融入並正在加強我們的“北極星行動”戰略，我從未如此興奮過。我鼓勵您參考我們 1 月份的投資者演示文稿，其中我們為我們的戰略和財務目標提供了更多的色彩。

Our long runway for growth begins with our assortment, and I would like to update you on the progress we are making to strategically increase our productivity and improve our assortment through new in-store programs, new tools and by leveraging our rapidly growing owned brands. In 2022, we are accelerating our next-generation Furniture sales strategy. As we have discussed during prior calls, this initiative is delivering a strong positive sales and margin impact, driving close to a 15% lift to the Furniture business in stores where it has rolled out. This initiative increases Furniture productivity, lifts the entire box, is accretive to our rewards program by adding members, our BIGionaires, and greatly improves the home furnishing buying experience. The program is currently in over 120 stores and will initially scale to around 650 stores by Q3 of 2022, which we believe will drive close to 2 points of annualized comp to the entire company.

我們漫長的增長之路始於我們的品類，我想向您介紹我們在戰略上提高生產力並通過新的店內計劃、新工具和利用我們快速增長的自有品牌來改進我們的品類方面取得的進展。 2022 年，我們正在加速我們的下一代家具銷售戰略。正如我們在之前的電話會議中所討論的那樣，這一舉措正在帶來強大的積極銷售和利潤率影響，推動其推出的商店的家具業務增長近 15%。這一舉措提高了家俱生產力，提升了整個盒子，通過增加會員、我們的 BIGionaires 來增加我們的獎勵計劃，並大大改善了家居購買體驗。該計劃目前在 120 多家門店開展，到 2022 年第三季度初步將擴大到約 650 家門店，我們相信這將為整個公司帶來接近 2 個百分點的年化收益。

A key aspect of optimizing our merchandise assortment is curating across each key product category the correct penetration of bargains, treasure hunt items and reliable convenience essentials. It is important to dive into this a bit further. Historically, we talked about closeouts versus other product. As we have worked through Operation North Star, it has become clear that we have to have standout bargains whether driven by big buys or closeouts, we have to have unique treasures representing seasonal or trendy items, and we need to have never out-of-stock convenience items. Having bargains, treasure hunt items and convenience essentials in balance creates outstanding value for our customer, a great customer experience and repeat trips.

優化我們的商品分類的一個關鍵方面是在每個關鍵產品類別中策劃便宜貨、尋寶物品和可靠的便利必需品的正確滲透。深入研究這一點很重要。從歷史上看，我們談論的是收尾與其他產品。隨著我們在北極星行動中的工作，很明顯，無論是大宗採購還是清倉，我們都必須有出色的討價還價，我們必須擁有代表季節性或時尚物品的獨特珍品，而且我們需要永遠不會-庫存便利物品。平衡便宜貨、尋寶物品和便利必需品，為我們的客戶創造卓越的價值、出色的客戶體驗和重複旅行。

The penetration of how much bargain hunt product will differ by category and will continue to evolve as we see opportunities to better serve customers, grow market share and further strengthen our differentiation from competitors. It is part of the active category management that our merchant team is now employing.

討價還價產品的滲透率將因類別而異，並將隨著我們看到更好地為客戶服務、增加市場份額和進一步加強我們與競爭對手的差異化的機會而繼續發展。這是我們的商家團隊現在正在使用的主動類別管理的一部分。

Turning to Seasonal, one of our highest-margin categories. You will see that we will continue to lean even further into this category in 2022 and beyond for both major moments such as Christmas and for what we are calling small season opportunities, which drive sales through more frequent newness. In addition to Valentine's Day and Easter, we have expanded our assortment in summer with pools and indoor plants as well as tailgating supplies and fall cleanup, all in an effort to be seasonally relevant every month of the year. Moreover, these additions help improve our overall space productivity with more consistent sales throughout the year.

轉向季節性，這是我們利潤率最高的類別之一。您會看到，我們將在 2022 年及以後繼續在聖誕節等重要時刻以及我們所謂的小季機會中進一步向這一類別傾斜，這些機會通過更頻繁的新品推動銷售。除了情人節和復活節，我們還在夏季擴大了產品種類，包括游泳池和室內植物，以及尾隨用品和秋季清潔用品，所有這些都是為了在一年中的每個月都與季節相關。此外，這些新增功能有助於提高我們的整體空間生產力，全年銷售更加穩定。

Within our key owned brands, Broyhill continues to grow strongly and accounted for approximately $140 million in Q4 sales, up 7% over the same quarter in 2020. Similarly, Real Living continues on its strong trajectory, up over 20% versus Q4 of last year. In 2021, Broyhill drove over $700 million of sales and Real Living drove over $600 million, and both are clearly on their way to becoming established billion-dollar brands. These owned brands will be pivotal in 2022 as we navigate through the current inflationary environment, enabling us to deliver great value opportunities at excellent margins.

在我們的主要自有品牌中，Broyhill 繼續強勁增長，第四季度銷售額約為 1.4 億美元，比 2020 年同期增長 7%。同樣，Real Living 繼續保持強勁勢頭，與去年第四季度相比增長超過 20% . 2021 年，Broyhill 的銷售額超過 7 億美元，Real Living 的銷售額超過 6 億美元，兩者顯然都在成為成熟的十億美元品牌的道路上。這些自有品牌將在 2022 年成為我們應對當前通脹環境的關鍵，使我們能夠以極好的利潤率提供巨大的價值機會。

Perhaps most importantly, the quality and value of these brands will provide an exciting trade-down opportunity for new customers to Big Lots, who will quickly join our rewards program and provide repeat shopping experiences when they discover our great bargains, treasure hunt and home essentials.

也許最重要的是，這些品牌的質量和價值將為 Biglots 的新客戶提供令人興奮的折價機會，他們將迅速加入我們的獎勵計劃，並在他們發現我們的超值優惠、尋寶和家居必需品時提供重複購物體驗.

As we introduced last quarter, we have other new initiatives on their way as well. Our Lots under $5 offering represents a further opportunity to drive higher productivity. We have successfully tested the program, which will sit at the front of our stores and will enhance our value image as well as the treasure hunt factor discussed earlier. The product line will rotate every 2 to 3 months with a mix of $5-and-under price points, items driving impulsive basket-expanding purchases. The product will be a mix of seasonally appropriate items as well as unique treasures and finds at unbeatable value.

正如我們上個季度介紹的那樣，我們還有其他新舉措正在實施中。我們提供低於 5 美元的拍品代表了進一步提高生產力的機會。我們已經成功測試了該程序，該程序將位於我們商店的前面，將提升我們的價值形像以及前面討論的尋寶因素。該產品線將每 2 到 3 個月輪換一次，其中包含 5 美元及以下的價格點，這些項目推動了衝動的購物籃擴大購買。該產品將融合季節性商品以及獨特的珍品，並以無與倫比的價值發現。

Net store growth is another critical area for acceleration in 2022. In 2021, we opened 23 net new stores. And these stores are performing ahead of our expectations, underscoring our confidence in our growth strategy. And while we have opened great new stores in our urban markets, such as in our backyard of Columbus, Ohio. We have also opened superbly performing stores in smaller markets, such as Hummelstown, Pennsylvania; Southport, North Carolina; Weirton, West Virginia; and Lebanon, Missouri, which are a mix of single Big Lots store markets and multiple store markets. These stores are outperforming their plans, specifically in Furniture, proving that we have white space opportunity as these customers have been hungry for Big Lots, and we're moving in.

門店淨增長是 2022 年加速增長的另一個關鍵領域。2021 年，我們淨新開 23 家門店。這些商店的表現超出了我們的預期，突顯了我們對增長戰略的信心。雖然我們在城市市場開設了很棒的新店，例如在俄亥俄州哥倫布市的後院。我們還在賓夕法尼亞州的 Hummelstown 等較小的市場開設了表現出色的商店；北卡羅來納州紹斯波特；西弗吉尼亞州威爾頓；和密蘇里州的黎巴嫩，它們是單個 Biglots 商店市場和多個商店市場的混合體。這些商店的表現超出了他們的計劃，特別是在家具方面，證明我們有空白空間的機會，因為這些客戶一直渴望大量商品，我們正在搬進來。

In 2022, we are on target to meet or exceed 50 net new stores. And we expect these stores to be margin-accretive, driving 10% EBITDA returns. We expect further acceleration of new store opportunities after 2022, and we are seeing a strong deal pipeline to support this.

到 2022 年，我們的目標是達到或超過 50 家淨新店。我們預計這些商店將增加利潤，推動 10% 的 EBITDA 回報。我們預計 2022 年後新店機會將進一步加速，我們看到強大的交易渠道可以支持這一點。

Turning to e-commerce. We have grown this business profitably, and it is now 3.5x 2019, well north of $300 million. We continue to plan for this to be a billion-dollar business with 10% to 15% penetration to the entire business. Our approach to date has been to replicate the friendliness of our in-store interactions online by removing friction points and allowing our customer to purchase where she wants, how she wants, with what tender she wishes and to have that product fulfilled through the channel that she prefers.

轉向電子商務。我們已經以盈利的方式發展了這項業務，現在是 2019 年的 3.5 倍，遠超 3 億美元。我們繼續計劃將其打造為一項價值 10 億美元的業務，對整個業務的滲透率達到 10% 到 15%。迄今為止，我們的方法是複制我們在線店內互動的友好性，消除摩擦點，讓我們的客戶在她想要的地方、她想要的方式、她想要的投標中購買，並通過渠道完成產品她更喜歡。

Since the initial rollout of BOPIS in 2019, we now provide curbside pickup, ship-from-store capabilities and same-day delivery via Instacart and PICKUP, and we continue to make investments to scale these offerings. We continue to see approximately 65% of our demand fulfilled through these new capabilities.

自 2019 年首次推出 BOPIS 以來，我們現在通過 Instacart 和 PICKUP 提供路邊取貨、店內發貨和當日送達功能，我們將繼續投資以擴大這些產品的規模。我們繼續看到大約 65% 的需求通過這些新功能得到滿足。

In the coming year, we will further improve our customers' experience by adding prompts indicating new and best-selling products, providing more personalized shopping experiences and improving our product content. Finally, in 2022, we are launching a new order management system, or OMS, to further improve the profitability of e-commerce shipments from stores, distribution centers or direct from vendors.

來年，我們將通過增加新品和熱銷產品的提示、提供更加個性化的購物體驗和改進我們的產品內容來進一步改善客戶體驗。最後，在 2022 年，我們將推出新的訂單管理系統（OMS），以進一步提高來自商店、配送中心或直接來自供應商的電子商務貨物的盈利能力。

We will also be redesigning our online cart to improve checkout and ease of use, focused on mobile first. Further enhancing our online experience, we have introduced real-time apply and buy online with the Big Lots Credit Card. Our journey to provide a frictionless checkout experience is bearing fruit. Last fall, we rounded out our mobile payment suite by accepting PayPal and Pay in 4 and have grown our mobile wallet usage to 28% of total transactions, improving our overall conversion. By the way, since launch, a significant percentage of web customers who checked out using PayPal were new to Big Lots. And the customers using PayPal's Pay in 4 tend to be younger and spend more than our existing customers, further building our customer file and expanding our average basket size.

我們還將重新設計我們的在線購物車，以改善結賬和易用性，重點關注移動優先。進一步提升我們的在線體驗，我們引入了使用大批量信用卡在線實時申請和購買。我們提供無摩擦結賬體驗的旅程正在結出碩果。去年秋天，我們通過接受 PayPal 和 Pay in 4 完善了我們的移動支付套件，並將我們的移動錢包使用量增加到總交易量的 28%，從而提高了我們的整體轉化率。順便說一句，自推出以來，使用 PayPal 結賬的網絡客戶中有很大一部分是 Big Lots 的新手。使用 PayPal Pay in 4 的客戶往往更年輕，比我們現有的客戶花費更多，進一步建立了我們的客戶檔案並擴大了我們的平均購物籃大小。

While our main focus is on our 3 core growth drivers, we continue to build our enabling capabilities and infrastructure. Throughout last year, we provided updates on our supply chain initiatives as we work to modernize and optimize our ability to get our assortment to our customer how, where and when she wants it. Last year, we still have 2 forward bulk distribution centers, or FDCs, easing flow through our network in the Southeast and Northeast. In 2022, we will open 2 new additional FDCs in the Pacific Northwest and Midwest to further increase efficiency in our network and empower our legacy regional distribution centers to better focus on the throughput of smaller pick-and-pack goods.

雖然我們的主要重點是我們的 3 個核心增長驅動力，但我們會繼續構建我們的支持能力和基礎設施。去年全年，我們提供了有關我們供應鏈計劃的最新信息，因為我們努力實現現代化和優化我們的能力，以便讓我們的產品能夠以客戶想要的方式、地點和時間提供給他們。去年，我們仍然有 2 個遠期散貨配送中心（FDC），通過我們在東南部和東北部的網絡來緩解流量。 2022 年，我們將在太平洋西北部和中西部開設 2 個新的 FDC，以進一步提高我們網絡的效率，並使我們的傳統區域配送中心能夠更好地專注於較小的分揀和包裝貨物的吞吐量。

An additional key enabler for us is making our in-store customer experience consistent and positive across our fleet. To that point, Project Refresh is well underway with over 50 stores refreshed in 2021 and 200 stores on the docket for 2022. Over time, under Project Refresh, we will upgrade approximately 800 stores that were not included in the 2017 to 2020 Store of the Future program. This project will create a more consistent consumer experience, better represent the Big Lots brand through imagery and signage in each store and will harmonize internal processes as we are currently catering to too many differently formatted or conditioned stores.

對我們來說，另一個關鍵推動因素是使我們的店內客戶體驗在我們的車隊中保持一致和積極。至此，Project Refresh 正在順利進行中，2021 年更新了 50 多家門店，2022 年將有 200 家門店在案。隨著時間的推移，在 Project Refresh 下，我們將把 2017 年未包括在 2020 年的約 800 家門店升級到 2020 年的門店。未來計劃。該項目將創造更一致的消費者體驗，通過每家商店的圖像和標牌更好地代表 Big Lots 品牌，並將協調內部流程，因為我們目前正在迎合太多不同格式或條件的商店。

As we previously disclosed, the average cost of the program is just over $100,000 per store, far below the prior Store of the Future conversions. These stores will benefit from new exterior signage, interior repainting and floor repair, a new vestibule experience, remodeled bathrooms and interior wall graphics.

正如我們之前所披露的，該計劃的平均成本為每家商店剛剛超過 100,000 美元，遠低於之前的 Store of the Future 轉換。這些商店將受益於新的外部標牌、內部重新粉刷和地板維修、新的門廳體驗、改造的浴室和內牆圖形。

Brand activation is critical to our Operation North Star journey, and we are thrilled with the continued expansion of our Be A BIGionaire brand campaign that started last spring. As a reminder, this campaign is grounded in extensive consumer insights around why customers love to shop us. She sees us as the home of the hunt for exceptional bargains and surprising treasures. Our customer is so savvy. She loves to express herself, and we frankly didn't think there was a word in the English language that would suffice. She feels like a million bucks when she's hunting for the best deals at her neighborhood Big Lots. And we are laser-focused on continuing to delight her every day in stores and online.

品牌激活對我們的北極星行動之旅至關重要，我們對去年春天開始的 Be A BIGionaire 品牌活動的持續擴展感到非常興奮。提醒一下，此活動基於廣泛的消費者洞察，即客戶喜歡購買我們的原因。她將我們視為尋找超值商品和令人驚喜的寶藏的故鄉。我們的客戶太精明了。她喜歡表達自己，坦率地說，我們認為英語中沒有一個詞就足夠了。當她在附近的 Biglots 尋找最優惠的價格時，她感覺自己賺了 100 萬美元。我們專注於每天在商店和網上繼續取悅她。

As we closed fourth quarter with our holiday BIGionaire campaign, featuring Eric Stonestreet and Molly Shannon, we received excellent feedback that the ads are attention-grabbing, likable and driving intention to shop. In fact, scores were even higher than our launch spots earlier in the year, and our brand awareness for Q4 was at an all-time high.

當我們以 Eric Stonestreet 和 Molly Shannon 為主角的假日 BIGionaire 活動結束第四季度時，我們收到了很好的反饋，即這些廣告引人注目、討人喜歡並推動了購物意圖。事實上，分數甚至高於我們今年早些時候的發佈點，我們在第四季度的品牌知名度也創歷史新高。

As we have shifted to 2022, we hope you saw our Presidents' Day ads featuring Eric Stonestreet. They were entertaining and highly productive as they perfectly convey the exciting values that we can provide to our customer. We are very proud of that holiday weekend performance, during which we drove double-digit comp growth over the comparable holiday weekend in 2019.

隨著我們已經轉移到 2022 年，我們希望您能看到我們以 Eric Stonestreet 為主角的總統日廣告。它們既有趣又高效，因為它們完美地傳達了我們可以為客戶提供的令人興奮的價值。我們為假期週末的表現感到非常自豪，在此期間，我們在 2019 年可比的假期週末推動了兩位數的收入增長。

The BIGionaire campaign continues to resonate well, and with our growing rewards program provides increasing brand awareness, consideration and purchasing from the loyal community of bargain hunters and treasure seekers. This community, our active rewards members, now stands at close to 22 million members strong and growing.

BIGionaire 活動繼續引起良好反響，隨著我們不斷增長的獎勵計劃提供越來越多的品牌知名度、考慮和購買來自忠誠的討價還價獵人和尋寶者社區。這個社區是我們活躍的獎勵成員，現在擁有近 2200 萬強大且不斷增長的成員。

As I hope you could tell, we have deep confidence in Operation North Star and in our ability to achieve our goals. We are correctly prioritizing our initiatives by investing in growth while simultaneously shoring up our foundations. This discipline and these strategies will deliver our long-term financial goals as we scale over the coming years to deliver sales of $8 billion to $10 billion, expanding our operating margins to 6% to 8% and driving returns on invested capital well in excess of our cost of capital.

我希望你能告訴我，我們對“北極星行動”以及我們實現目標的能力充滿信心。我們通過投資增長，同時鞏固我們的基礎，正確地確定了我們的計劃優先級。隨著我們在未來幾年擴大規模以實現 80 億至 100 億美元的銷售額，將我們的營業利潤率擴大至 6% 至 8%，並推動投資資本回報率遠遠超過我們的資本成本。

Throughout this evolution, we will continue our track record of excellent access to liquidity, consistently strong free cash flow generation and capital return. Since 2016, we have returned over $1 billion to our shareholders and expect to continue capital return going forward.

在整個發展過程中，我們將繼續保持良好的流動性、持續強勁的自由現金流產生和資本回報的記錄。自 2016 年以來，我們已向股東返還超過 10 億美元，並預計未來將繼續獲得資本回報。

Thus far, I have discussed our initiatives, our systems, our networks, but I've not talked about our people and the depth that they deserve. What gives us the greatest confidence in our ability to scale this business over the coming years and to achieve the financial goals, as referenced in our January investor presentation, is the team that we have built in the past 3 years: new, enhanced and strengthened teams in every core function as well as new growth areas such as apparel. This is a team that is focused, collaborative and fully aligned around our mission to help Live BIG and Save Lots. And recently, we returned to the office and found that we are even stronger when we are together. With this team, I am confident we will achieve our goals and become the best destination home discount store.

到目前為止，我已經討論了我們的舉措、我們的系統、我們的網絡，但我還沒有談到我們的員工和他們應得的深度。正如我們在 1 月份的投資者報告中所提到的，讓我們對未來幾年擴展這項業務和實現財務目標的能力最大的信心是我們在過去 3 年中建立的團隊：新的、增強的和加強的每個核心職能部門以及服裝等新增長領域的團隊。這是一個專注、協作和完全一致的團隊，我們的使命是幫助 Live BIG 並節省很多。而最近，我們回到辦公室，發現我們在一起更加強大。有了這個團隊，我有信心我們會實現我們的目標，成為最好的目的地家居折扣店。

Before turning to an in-depth review of the numbers, I do want to quickly discuss how our fourth quarter of 2021 ended and how we have started 2022. After clearly performing very well during holiday with plus 9% 2-year comps, our fourth quarter ended below our guided sales range, driven by more inclement-than-expected weather in January, the spike in Omicron's effect on traffic and some inventory challenges. On a 2-year basis, Q4 comparable sales increased 5.4% while declining 2.3% to 2020. This represented a sequential deceleration in 2-year comps that was greater than anticipated, driven entirely by our performance in January.

在對這些數字進行深入審查之前，我確實想快速討論一下我們的 2021 年第四季度如何結束以及我們如何開始 2022 年。在假期期間表現非常出色，加上 9% 的 2 年補償後，我們的第四季度由於 1 月份天氣比預期更惡劣、Omicron 對流量的影響激增以及一些庫存挑戰，本季度結束時低於我們的指導銷售範圍。在 2 年的基礎上，第四季度可比銷售額增長 5.4%，但到 2020 年下降 2.3%。這代表 2 年比較的連續減速幅度大於預期，這完全是由我們 1 月份的表現推動的。

Total sales in Q4 increased approximately 8% versus 2019, with 230 basis points of favorability from our net new and relocated stores. Given that stimulus and other macro traffic drivers have subsided as factors in our results, these 2-year sales growth statistics are an appropriate measure of the impact of our Operation North Star strategies.

與 2019 年相比，第四季度的總銷售額增長了約 8%，我們的淨新店和搬遷店的好感度為 230 個基點。鑑於刺激措施和其他宏觀交通驅動因素已成為我們業績的因素，這些 2 年銷售增長統計數據是衡量我們北極星運營戰略影響的適當衡量標準。

So while we are disappointed with how January actualized, this underscores prior comments on where we are going and provides proof of our momentum. Sales for the quarter again benefited from growth in basket, driven by AUR expansion across each category. We did see a drop-off in our Furniture trend during the quarter, driven by inventory availability as we work to overcome supply chain sluggishness in the back half of the year, before shutdowns in Vietnam and supply chain shortages with domestic upholstery hub sales, but we were able to partially offset these pressures with some opportunistic buys in furniture.

因此，雖然我們對 1 月份的實現方式感到失望，但這強調了之前關於我們前進方向的評論，並證明了我們的勢頭。本季度的銷售額再次受益於購物籃的增長，這得益於各個類別的 AUR 擴張。我們確實看到我們的家具趨勢在本季度有所下降，這是由於庫存可用性的推動，因為我們在下半年努力克服供應鏈低迷，然後在越南停工和國內室內裝潢中心銷售出現供應鏈短缺，但我們能夠通過一些機會主義的家具購買來部分抵消這些壓力。

On a positive note, because of the work we have done internally and with our partners, we are now in the best inventory position in Broyhill upholstery and mattresses in the past 1.5 years. In fact, despite continued supply chain disruptions, we were able to end the quarter well positioned in inventory for the start of 2022. With the subsiding of winter weather and the Omicron variant and improving in-stock levels, we are regaining traction.

積極的一面是，由於我們在內部和與我們的合作夥伴所做的工作，我們現在在過去 1.5 年中處於 Broyhill 室內裝潢和床墊的最佳庫存位置。事實上，儘管供應鏈持續中斷，但我們能夠在 2022 年初的庫存中很好地結束本季度。隨著冬季天氣和 Omicron 變體的消退以及庫存水平的提高，我們正在重新獲得牽引力。

In Seasonal, we had a strong November and December through holiday, but a softer January given some similar inventory delays. Again, we expect to be in a progressively better position as we move through Q1. Our adjusted earnings per share for the quarter of $1.75 was below both our initial and updated guidance ranges. As we will discuss shortly, our adverse January shrink results at the end of the quarter drove approximately a $0.30 per share reduction in our earnings as we began our annual cycle of physical inventories. We have strategies in place to fix this issue going forward, which should provide some margin tailwind towards the end of 2022.

在季節性方面，我們在假期期間經歷了強勁的 11 月和 12 月，但由於一些類似的庫存延遲，1 月表現疲軟。同樣，我們希望在我們進入第一季度時處於逐漸更好的位置。我們調整後的每股收益為 1.75 美元，低於我們的初始和更新指導範圍。正如我們稍後將討論的那樣，當我們開始年度實物庫存週期時，我們在本季度末的不利 1 月份收縮結果導致我們的每股收益減少了約 0.30 美元。我們已經制定了解決這個問題的策略，這應該會在 2022 年底提供一些利潤順風。

After a difficult January, we are more pleased with the start we have made to 2022, with trends improving in February despite more weather issues and the slow-ish start to tax refund season. As I mentioned earlier, we have worked with our global supply chain partners to ensure improved product availability entering the quarter, and this continues to get better every day. This is especially important as we left sales on the table in each of the past 2 Februarys given beginning-of-the-year inventory levels.

在經歷了艱難的 1 月之後，我們對 2022 年的開局感到更加滿意，儘管天氣問題更多且退稅季節開始緩慢，但 2 月的趨勢有所改善。正如我之前提到的，我們與我們的全球供應鏈合作夥伴合作，以確保進入本季度的產品可用性得到改善，並且這種情況每天都在變得更好。這一點尤其重要，因為考慮到年初的庫存水平，我們在過去的 2 月 2 日的每一年都將銷售額放在了桌面上。

That completes Bruce's prepared remarks, and I will now continue with my prepared commentary on our financial performance.

這完成了布魯斯準備好的評論，我現在將繼續我準備好的關於我們財務業績的評論。

While 2021 ended with a challenging month, it is important to reiterate that it was still the second best year in the company's history, measured both by sales and adjusted EPS. I would like to thank our associates across the company who made that happen.

儘管 2021 年以充滿挑戰的月份結束，但重要的是要重申，從銷售額和調整後的每股收益來看，這仍然是公司歷史上第二好的一年。我要感謝我們整個公司的同事，他們促成了這一切。

We missed our fourth quarter guidance driven by transitory issues, namely traffic that was affected by weather and Omicron rise in January and adverse shrink results from our latest physical inventories. We have seen traffic improve in February, and we are already implementing strategies that should turn out 2021 shrink impacts into potential late 2022 tailwinds.

我們錯過了由暫時性問題驅動的第四季度指導，即受天氣影響的交通和 1 月份 Omicron 上升以及我們最新實物庫存的不利收縮結果。我們已經看到 2 月份的交通量有所改善，我們已經在實施策略，應該將 2021 年的收縮影響轉化為 2022 年末的潛在順風。

A summary of our financial results for the fourth quarter can be found on Page 6 of our quarterly results presentation. Q4 net sales were $1.732 billion, a 0.3% decrease compared to $1.738 billion a year ago, but up 7.8% to the fourth quarter of 2019. The decline versus 2020 was driven by a comparable sales decrease of 2.3%, below our original guidance of slightly positive. This miss was driven by January performance.

我們第四季度的財務業績摘要可以在我們的季度業績報告的第 6 頁上找到。第四季度淨銷售額為 17.32 億美元，與去年同期的 17.38 億美元相比下降 0.3%，但較 2019 年第四季度增長 7.8%。與 2020 年相比下降的原因是可比銷售額下降了 2.3%，低於我們最初的預期略積極。這一失誤是由一月份的表現推動的。

Our 2-year comps were 5.4%, buoyed by the holiday period with November at 10% and December at 8%, followed by January, down 4%. Our fourth quarter adjusted net income was $53.6 million compared to $98 million of net income in Q4 of 2020 and $93.8 million in 2019. Adjusted diluted EPS for the quarter was $1.75. As a reminder, we reported diluted EPS of $2.59 last year.

我們的 2 年復合率為 5.4%，受到假期的提振，11 月為 10%，12 月為 8%，其次是 1 月，下降 4%。我們第四季度調整後的淨收入為 5360 萬美元，而 2020 年第四季度的淨收入為 9800 萬美元，2019 年為 9380 萬美元。本季度調整後的稀釋後每股收益為 1.75 美元。提醒一下，我們去年報告的攤薄每股收益為 2.59 美元。

The gross margin rate for the quarter was 37.3%, down approximately 210 basis points from last year's rate and 220 basis points below 2019, underperforming our guidance, driven by shrink and freight headwinds. Versus our guidance at the beginning of quarter, shrink drove approximately 80 basis points of gross margin rate erosion for the quarter. We typically begin our annual physical inventory cycle in early January. And by the end of the month, we have completed enough inventories to extrapolate results across the chain.

本季度毛利率為 37.3%，比去年下降約 210 個基點，比 2019 年下降 220 個基點，在萎縮和貨運逆風的推動下，表現低於我們的預期。與我們在季度初的指導相比，收縮導致本季度毛利率下降約 80 個基點。我們通常在 1 月初開始我們的年度實物庫存週期。到月底，我們已經完成了足夠的庫存來推斷整個鏈條的結果。

This year, those results showed a significant spike in our shrink rate, which is in part attributable to the well-documented industry-wide retail crime epidemic. Our shrink results were notably worse in California than in the rest of the country. As we have analyzed these results over the past few weeks, we are confident the steps we are already taking will enable us to bring the rate down in 2022. For example, we will be completing needle tagging for apparel, where we saw a high shrink rate in 2022. Additionally, we will be accelerating the rollout of shopping cart wheel locking systems in our higher shrink stores during the course of the year and significantly enhancing in-store training and incentives around shrink mitigation. Last, we have already addressed a point-of-sale technology issue that contributed to our 2021 shrink.

今年，這些結果顯示我們的收縮率顯著飆升，這部分歸因於有據可查的全行業零售犯罪流行。我們在加利福尼亞的收縮結果明顯比美國其他地區差。由於我們在過去幾週分析了這些結果，我們相信我們已經採取的措施將使我們能夠在 2022 年降低這一比率。例如，我們將完成服裝的針標記，我們看到了大幅縮水率在 2022 年。此外，我們將在這一年中加速在我們的收縮率較高的商店中推出購物車車輪鎖定係統，並顯著加強圍繞緩解收縮的店內培訓和激勵措施。最後，我們已經解決了導致我們 2021 年出現萎縮的銷售點技術問題。

Turning to SG&A. Total adjusted expenses for the quarter, including depreciation, were $574 million, up from $554 million last year. This was slightly better than our expectation coming into the quarter. The increase to last year was driven by incremental investments in labor and in our 4 distribution centers, partially offset by lower bonus expense. Adjusted operating margin for the quarter was 4.2% compared to 7.5% in 2020 and 7.8% in 2019. Interest expense for the quarter was $2.1 million, down from $2.6 million in the fourth quarter last year and $3.2 million in Q4 2019.

轉向SG&A。本季度調整後的總費用（包括折舊）為 5.74 億美元，高於去年的 5.54 億美元。這比我們進入本季度的預期略好。與去年相比的增長是由對勞動力和我們 4 個配送中心的增加投資推動的，部分被較低的獎金支出所抵消。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 4.2%，而 2020 年為 7.5%，2019 年為 7.8%。本季度的利息費用為 210 萬美元，低於去年第四季度的 260 萬美元和 2019 年第四季度的 320 萬美元。

The adjusted income tax rate in the fourth quarter was 24.1% compared to last year's rate of 24.6%, with the rate change primarily driven by prior year tax return true-ups, audit settlements and employment credits, partially offset by disallowed executive compensation and deferred tax adjustments. Total ending inventory was up 32% to last year of $1.238 billion and up 34% to 2019, ahead of our beginning-of-quarter guidance due to higher in-transit inventory, particularly Seasonal. The increase versus prior years includes a significant unit cost component.

與去年的 24.6% 相比，第四季度調整後的所得稅率為 24.1%，稅率變化主要是由上一年的納稅申報、審計結算和就業抵免推動的，部分被不允許的高管薪酬和遞延稅收調整。由於在途庫存增加，尤其是季節性庫存，期末庫存總額較去年增長 32%，達到 12.38 億美元，較 2019 年增長 34%，高於我們的季度初指引。與往年相比的增加包括一個重要的單位成本部分。

During the fourth quarter, we opened 16 new stores and closed 9 stores. We ended Q4 with 1,431 stores and total selling square footage of 32.7 million. Capital expenditures for the quarter were $38 million compared to $32 million last year. Depreciation expense in the fourth quarter was $37 million, up $4 million to the same period last year. On a full year basis, capital expenditures were $161 million.

第四季度，我們開設了 16 家新店，關閉了 9 家店。我們在第四季度結束時擁有 1,431 家商店，總銷售面積為 3,270 萬平方英尺。本季度的資本支出為 3800 萬美元，而去年為 3200 萬美元。第四季度折舊費用為 3700 萬美元，比去年同期增加 400 萬美元。按全年計算，資本支出為 1.61 億美元。

We ended the fourth quarter with $54 million of cash and cash equivalents and $4 million borrowed on our revolving credit facility. As a reminder, at the end of Q4 2020, we had $560 million of cash and cash equivalents and $36 million of long-term debt. The year-over-year reduction in cash levels reflects our deployment of proceeds from the sale and leaseback of our distribution centers towards share repurchases and our increased investment in inventory.

我們在第四季度結束時擁有 5400 萬美元的現金和現金等價物，以及通過循環信貸工具借入的 400 萬美元。提醒一下，在 2020 年第四季度末，我們有 5.6 億美元的現金和現金等價物以及 3600 萬美元的長期債務。現金水平的同比下降反映了我們將分銷中心的售後回租收益用於股票回購和我們增加的庫存投資。

In total, we returned approximately $460 million to our shareholders during 2021 through our quarterly dividend and share purchase program. During the quarter, we repurchased 2.1 million shares for $90.6 million at an average cost per share of $43.90. We have $159 million remaining outstanding under our December 2021 $250 million authorization.

通過我們的季度股息和股票購買計劃，我們在 2021 年總共向股東返還了大約 4.6 億美元。本季度，我們以每股 43.90 美元的平均成本以 9060 萬美元的價格回購了 210 萬股股票。根據我們 2021 年 12 月的 2.5 億美元授權，我們仍有 1.59 億美元未償付。

On a full year basis, we had sales of $6.151 billion, which was down 2.5% on a comparable basis to 2020, but up 13.2% on a comparable 2-year basis to 2019. Versus 2020, total sales were down just under 1% with 170 basis points of growth driven by new and recently relocated stores. On a 2-year basis, we had 230 basis points of noncomparable growth from similar real estate impacts.

按全年計算，我們的銷售額為 61.51 億美元，與 2020 年相比下降 2.5%，但在與 2019 年相比的兩年可比基礎上增長 13.2%。與 2020 年相比，總銷售額下降了不到 1%新店和最近搬遷的門店推動了 170 個基點的增長。在 2 年的基礎上，我們從類似的房地產影響中獲得了 230 個不可比較的增長。

Our full year adjusted operating margin of 4% was down 240 basis points to last year but up 10 basis points to 2019. Adjusted operating income of $244.8 million was down to 2020's $397.5 million, but up almost 18% to 2019's operating income of $207.9 million or approximately 50% after adjusting for the incremental sale-leaseback expense we took on in 2020.

我們全年調整後的營業利潤率為 4%，比去年下降 240 個基點，但比 2019 年上升 10 個基點。調整後的營業收入為 2.448 億美元，低於 2020 年的 3.975 億美元，但比 2019 年的營業收入 2.079 億美元增長近 18%在調整我們在 2020 年承擔的增量售後回租費用後，約為 50%。

Our 2021 adjusted earnings per share of $5.44 was second highest in the company's history only to 2020. In 2020, our adjusted EPS was $7.35. The adjusted 2021 EPS was up 48% to 2019's adjusted EPS of $3.67. We announced today that our Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 of $0.30 per common share. This dividend is payable on April 1, 2022, to shareholders of record as of the close of business on March 18, 2022.

我們 2021 年調整後的每股收益為 5.44 美元，是公司歷史上僅次於 2020 年的第二高點。2020 年，我們調整後的每股收益為 7.35 美元。調整後的 2021 年每股收益增長 48%，至 2019 年調整後的每股收益 3.67 美元。我們今天宣布，我們的董事會宣布 2021 財年第四季度的季度現金股息為每股普通股 0.30 美元。該股息將於 2022 年 4 月 1 日支付給截至 2022 年 3 月 18 日營業結束時在冊的股東。

Turning to guidance. For the first quarter of fiscal 2022, the company expects to report diluted earnings per share in the range of $1.10 to $1.20 compared to $2.62 of earnings per diluted share for the first quarter of 2021 and $0.92 of adjusted earnings in Q1 2019. This earnings per share guidance does not include the impact of any future share repurchase activity. Excluding the impact of additional potential share repurchases, our guidance reflects a diluted share count of approximately 29.3 million shares for Q1.

轉向指導。對於 2022 財年第一季度，公司預計攤薄後每股收益在 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元之間，而 2021 年第一季度每股攤薄收益為 2.62 美元，2019 年第一季度調整後收益為 0.92 美元。股票指引不包括任何未來股票回購活動的影響。排除額外潛在股票回購的影響，我們的指引反映了第一季度稀釋後的股票數量約為 2930 萬股。

This outlook reflects a comparable sales increase of approximately 10% to the first quarter of 2019, which equates to a low double-digit decline in comparable sales versus the first quarter of 2021 as the company laps the impact of stimulus, which we estimate will provide 12 points of comp drag versus last year in Q1 and 5 points of comp drag on a full year basis.

這一前景反映了與 2019 年第一季度相比，可比銷售額增長了約 10%，這相當於與 2021 年第一季度相比，可比銷售額出現了兩位數的低位下降，因為該公司受到了我們估計將提供的刺激措施的影響與去年相比，第一季度的薪酬拖累為 12 個百分點，全年的競爭拖累為 5 個百分點。

In Q1, we expect to see roughly 130 basis points of growth from net new and relocated stores. The outlook further reflects a decrease in the gross margin rate of approximately 50 basis points compared to the first quarter of last year and a slight increase in expense dollars compared to the first quarter of last year. The decrease in the gross margin rate is primarily due to freight costs, which are above prior expectations, and a higher shrink accrual rate as a result of January physical inventory results.

在第一季度，我們預計淨新店和搬遷門店將增長約 130 個基點。展望進一步反映了與去年第一季度相比毛利率下降了約 50 個基點，與去年第一季度相比，支出金額略有增加。毛利率的下降主要是由於運費成本高於先前的預期，以及由於 1 月份的實物庫存結果導致的更高的應計收縮率。

The increase in expense dollars is primarily driven by incremental supply chain expenses, inflationary wage impacts and new store-related expenses, partially offset by the variable expense impact of lower sales and lower bonus and equity compensation expense. With regard to the full year, the company is targeting both comparable sales and gross margin rate to be approximately flat to the prior year, with operating expenses deleveraging modestly due to inflationary impacts and growth-related investments. Given greater-than-usual uncertainty resulting from supply chain disruption and inflation, at this point, the company is not providing formal full year guidance.

支出的增加主要是由供應鏈支出增加、通貨膨脹工資影響和新店相關支出推動的，部分被銷售額下降和獎金和股權薪酬支出減少的可變支出影響所抵消。就全年而言，公司的目標是可比銷售額和毛利率與上一年大致持平，由於通脹影響和增長相關投資，運營費用適度去槓桿化。鑑於供應鏈中斷和通貨膨脹導致的不確定性大於往常，該公司目前沒有提供正式的全年指導。

We expect inventory to end Q1 up in the mid-20 percentage range to 2019, including, again, a significant in-transit component, which may fluctuate as we get close to quarter end. This reflects strong progress in rebuilding our inventories to support lawn and garden and summer sales and improve in-stock positions in key furniture items.

我們預計到 2019 年第一季度末庫存將在 20% 的範圍內上升，其中包括一個重要的在途組件，隨著我們接近季度末，庫存可能會波動。這反映了我們在重建庫存以支持草坪和花園以及夏季銷售以及改善關鍵家具項目的庫存狀況方面取得的巨大進展。

We expect 2022 capital expenditures to be between $210 million and $230 million, including around 70 store openings, of which under 10 will be relocations. Our capital projection includes approximately 200 Project Refresh stores in 2022. On a net basis, we expect total store count to grow by about 50 stores in 2022.

我們預計 2022 年的資本支出將在 2.1 億美元至 2.3 億美元之間，包括約 70 家新店開業，其中 10 家以下將搬遷。我們的資本預測包括 2022 年約 200 家 Project Refresh 門店。按淨值計算，我們預計 2022 年門店總數將增長約 50 家。

To reiterate Bruce's prepared comments, despite near-term challenges and uncertainty, we have great confidence in our long-term sales and margin growth opportunity. We believe that a low single-digit sustained comp is realistic once we are clear of the stimulus and supply chain impacts for the past 2 years, and that it will be augmented by consistent store count growth. All of this will enable us to leverage our model and deliver strong margin rate improvement, providing outstanding overall returns. We are committed to achieving these results and confident we can deliver.

重申布魯斯準備好的評論，儘管近期面臨挑戰和不確定性，但我們對我們的長期銷售和利潤增長機會充滿信心。我們認為，一旦我們清楚過去 2 年的刺激和供應鏈影響，低個位數的持續補償是現實的，並且持續的商店數量增長將增強它。所有這些都將使我們能夠利用我們的模型並提供強勁的保證金率改進，從而提供出色的整體回報。我們致力於實現這些結果，並相信我們能夠實現。

I'll now turn the call back over to our moderator so that we can begin to answer your questions. Thank you.

我現在將把電話轉回給我們的主持人，以便我們開始回答您的問題。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is coming from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Greg Badishkanian。

This is Spencer Hanus on for Greg. Can you just talk about the improved sales you mentioned in February following the mixed results in January and how that's impacted your inventory planning for the year as well as your just overall thoughts on the underlying demand from your consumer?

這是格雷格的斯賓塞漢努斯。您能否談談您在 1 月份的喜憂參半的結果之後在 2 月份提到的銷售改善，以及這對您今年的庫存計劃以及您對消費者潛在需求的總體看法有何影響？

Spencer, I'll be happy to jump in on that, and then maybe Jack may want to add a couple of comments. So yes, as we've called out, we've seen an improvement in February. I think at this point, the appropriate way to look at it is on a 2-year comp. So as we called out in the fourth quarter, 2-year comps ran pretty strongly in November and December and then swung negative in January. For February, on a 2-year comp basis, we were ahead of the Q4 trend, so certainly a significant recovery from the negative 4% we had in January on a 2-year comp basis. So we're encouraged by that. And that, by the way, is despite the fact that tax refunds have been a little bit slow and the fact that we're still getting some of our seasonal inventory, in particular, processed through the supply chain. So we feel good about the start to the fourth -- to the first quarter in that context.

Spencer，我很樂意加入，然後 Jack 可能想要添加一些評論。所以，是的，正如我們所說，我們在 2 月份看到了進步。我認為在這一點上，看待它的適當方式是 2 年的比較。因此，正如我們在第四季度所說的那樣，2 年期比較在 11 月和 12 月表現強勁，然後在 1 月轉為負數。對於 2 月份，在 2 年補償的基礎上，我們領先於第四季度的趨勢，因此肯定從 1 月份的 2 年補償負 4% 顯著復甦。所以我們對此感到鼓舞。順便說一句，儘管退稅有點慢，而且我們仍在獲得一些季節性庫存，特別是通過供應鏈處理的事實。因此，在這種情況下，我們對第四季度的開始感覺良好 - 到第一季度。

In terms of full year inventory planning, we are going to be -- we're planning to be relatively heavier on Seasonal and Furniture. A lot of that inventory has a long shelf life, and we want to make sure we have the inventory to sell. We're seeing great traction on Broyhill. We've seen great traction on Seasonal. And again, we want to make sure we have the inventory.

在全年庫存計劃方面，我們將 - 我們計劃在季節性和家具方面相對較重。很多庫存都有很長的保質期，我們要確保我們有庫存可以出售。我們在 Broyhill 看到了巨大的吸引力。我們已經看到了季節性的巨大吸引力。再一次，我們要確保我們有庫存。

There is also a component playing into that, of course, of average unit cost being significantly higher, which is taking our inventory levels up to some degree. But overall, as we think about inventory, we're planning higher in Furniture and Seasonal, adjusting for those impacts. Most of our other categories, the lead time to act is significantly shorter. So we have more flexibility there. But obviously, we're watching the trends very closely. We meet on a regular basis internally to plan that out. We feel we have the appropriate level of flexibility in those plans going forward to deal with a range of different sales scenarios. Anything to add, Jack?

當然，還有一個因素是平均單位成本明顯更高，這在一定程度上使我們的庫存水平上升。但總的來說，當我們考慮庫存時，我們計劃在家具和季節性產品中增加，以適應這些影響。在我們的大多數其他類別中，採取行動的前置時間要短得多。所以我們在那裡有更大的靈活性。但顯然，我們正在密切關注趨勢。我們會定期在內部開會以計劃這一點。我們認為我們在這些計劃中具有適當的靈活性，以應對一系列不同的銷售場景。有什麼要補充的嗎，傑克？

No. I think you answered it well, Jonathan. The only -- I guess, yes, I would add one piece that part of the inventory planning is also just getting back in stock. And as you mentioned, Broyhill, Real Living getting back in stock and then catching up with the Seasonal inventory that has been delayed have both been good adds to the February sales.

不，我認為你回答得很好，喬納森。唯一的 - 我想，是的，我會添加一件庫存計劃的一部分也剛剛恢復庫存。正如你所提到的，Broyhill、Real Living 恢復庫存，然後趕上被推遲的季節性庫存，這對 2 月份的銷售都有很好的補充。

Got it. That's helpful. And then how much of the 1Q SG&A dollar growth is driven by structural changes in costs or just some of these more transitory issues like freight? And then you called out the 50 basis point headwind in gross margins in 1Q but flat for the year. So what drives the improvement as you move through 2022? Is it just eliminating some of the strength that you guys have seen?

知道了。這很有幫助。那麼，第一季度 SG&A 美元的增長有多少是由成本的結構性變化推動的，或者僅僅是貨運等一些更暫時的問題？然後你指出第一季度毛利率下降了 50 個基點，但今年持平。那麼，是什麼推動了您在 2022 年的進步？是不是把你們看到的一些實力給消掉了？

Yes. So certainly, on the last point, Spencer, we now have to accrue at a higher rate that we saw at the end of Q4 until our next round of physical inventories demonstrated that we brought it down. And we're -- obviously, we don't want to wait all the way until January of next year to learn that. So we're going to be implementing some steps along the way to get a better read on that. And that should enable us, hopefully, to bring the accrual rate down as we go through the year. But that in Q1, we'll be accruing at the higher rate. And then, I guess, other than that, there were some mix impacts in there that you'll play out over the course of the year.

是的。所以當然，在最後一點，斯賓塞，我們現在必須以我們在第四季度末看到的更高的速度積累，直到我們的下一輪實物庫存證明我們把它降低了。而且我們 - 顯然，我們不想一直等到明年一月才能了解這一點。因此，我們將在此過程中實施一些步驟，以更好地了解這一點。這應該使我們有望在這一年中降低應計率。但在第一季度，我們將以更高的速度累積。然後，我想，除此之外，還有一些混合影響，你將在一年中發揮作用。

From a freight standpoint, we don't -- it certainly got worse from what we thought in December. We think we have that pretty well baked in now for the full year. But it's really then just more about the quarterly cadence and kind of what we're up against year-over-year. But all those effects are baked in, including much higher freight to what we're seeing and the shrink rate cadence we expect to see over the course of the year.

從貨運的角度來看，我們沒有 - 它肯定比我們在 12 月份的想法更糟。我們認為我們現在全年都已經做好了準備。但實際上更多的是關於季度節奏和我們與去年同期相比的那種情況。但是所有這些影響都已經存在，包括我們所看到的更高的運費以及我們預計在一年中看到的收縮率節奏。

Our next question is from the line of Joe Feldman, Telsey Advisory Group.

我們的下一個問題來自 Telsey 諮詢集團的 Joe Feldman。

I wanted to ask you about the inventory again and kind of the shrink situation. Can you explain again what happened? Like I guess I'm wondering how it got out of whack. And if I heard you guys correctly, it sounded like you're implementing maybe a new inventory system to monitor the inventory better. And just had a few more questions kind of about what happened, like why apparel was heavy, why was West Coast more of a problem, all those kinds of things.

我想再次詢問您有關庫存和縮水情況的情況。你能再解釋一下發生了什麼嗎？就像我想我想知道它是如何失控的。如果我沒聽錯的話，聽起來你們可能正在實施一個新的庫存系統來更好地監控庫存。還有一些關於發生了什麼的問題，比如為什麼衣服很重，為什麼西海岸更成問題，諸如此類。

Yes. Joe, let me try to break that down a bit. So yes, our annual physical inventory cycle starts in January and runs through the summer. And then there's kind of a pause before we start the next year's cycle. Although we did do some inventory work in as late as September, and it didn't really demonstrate the significant spike we saw when we started to take our full annual physical inventories in January. So the things that we think have played, clearly, in California, there's a major crime epidemic going on, enforcement of penalties of shoplifting have been largely kind of abandoned there. And certainly, you've heard of other retailers essentially even closing stores because they can't operate them viably. So we saw a California spike pretty significantly. And relative to what we were seeing as late as June or July in our last round of physical inventories, there was a significant step-up there.

是的。喬，讓我試著把它分解一下。所以是的，我們的年度實物庫存週期從一月份開始，一直持續到夏季。然後在我們開始明年的周期之前有一種暫停。儘管我們在 9 月下旬確實做了一些庫存工作，但並沒有真正證明我們在 1 月份開始進行全年實物庫存時看到的顯著飆升。所以我們認為已經發生的事情，很明顯，在加利福尼亞，正在發生一場重大的犯罪流行，對入店行竊的處罰在很大程度上被放棄了。當然，你聽說過其他零售商基本上甚至關閉了商店，因為他們無法有效地經營它們。所以我們看到加州的飆升非常顯著。相對於我們在上一輪實物庫存中看到的 6 月或 7 月末的情況，那裡出現了顯著的增長。

Obviously, as AURs have gone up, the value of what's being stolen has also gone up with that, and there's also a mix component in there. We saw significantly very high shrink rate in apparel, particularly among more expensive items. And that's one of the things that we're already well on our way to addressing. And we would have addressed it earlier, but it took us a while to get all the needle tags through given the well-documented supply chain constraints that even affected things like that. But that is now or will very soon be completed. So we'll have needle tagging on all of our apparel items.

顯然，隨著 AUR 的上升，被盜的價值也隨之上升，其中還有一個混合組件。我們看到服裝的縮水率非常高，尤其是在更昂貴的商品中。這是我們已經在努力解決的問題之一。我們本來會更早解決這個問題的，但是考慮到有據可查的供應鏈限制甚至影響了類似的事情，我們花了一段時間才能通過所有的針標籤。但這已經或將很快完成。因此，我們將在所有服裝上貼上針標籤。

And then we saw lots of instances of these pushouts where people just come into stores and sort of, with impunity, attempt to walk out of the store with stolen merchandise. We've rolled out the wheel locking systems in a number of stores, which is essentially to prevent the carts from being pushed out. And we're going to be accelerating that now in light of what we're seeing. We're also doubling down on retraining our store teams to mitigate shrink and modifying how we incent our store level and asset protection field teams in terms of managing shrink.

然後我們看到了很多這樣的推擠事件，人們剛剛進入商店，並且在不受懲罰的情況下，試圖帶著被盜的商品走出商店。我們已經在許多商店推出了車輪鎖定係統，這基本上是為了防止推車被推出。鑑於我們所看到的，我們現在將加快這一進程。我們還加倍努力對我們的商店團隊進行再培訓，以減輕收縮並修改我們在管理收縮方面激勵我們的商店級別和資產保護現場團隊的方式。

So we think we've got a strong battery of things we're doing to respond to it. But the underlying causes would be general across retail, increases in shrink and well-documented crime issues, particularly in California, but also some issues that are little more specific to us in terms of our product mix evolution, including towards apparel. And then we did have an issue we contribute -- which we think contribute a little bit related to a point-of-sale issue that got fixed in, that we've now fixed that probably contributed to some of the shrink in Q4. So we feel good about all the things we're doing. But it's a combination of, I would say, external factors and some things that are more specific to us. But either way, we're confident we're going to be able to address them going forward.

因此，我們認為我們正在採取一系列強有力的措施來應對它。但是，根本原因將是零售業普遍存在的，萎縮的增加和有據可查的犯罪問題，尤其是在加利福尼亞州，而且在我們的產品組合演變（包括服裝）方面，還有一些對我們來說更具體的問題。然後我們確實有一個我們貢獻的問題 - 我們認為這與一個已修復的銷售點問題有點相關，我們現在已經修復了這可能導致第四季度的一些縮減。所以我們對我們正在做的所有事情都感覺良好。但我想說，這是外部因素和一些對我們更具體的事情的結合。但無論哪種方式，我們都相信我們將能夠在未來解決這些問題。

Got it. That's helpful. Yes, because at first I thought you said there was some system issue. But no, it sounds like it's much more external than that. And the other, maybe a follow-up question. I know you said that freight and supply chain pressure may be a little bit worse than you've taken that into account at this point. How should we think about it as the balance of the year goes though? Should it -- like as we lap it in the second quarter, does it get better? Or are you assuming it will still be at a higher rate than even last year for the second half?

知道了。這很有幫助。是的，因為一開始我以為你說有一些系統問題。但不，聽起來它比這更外部。另一個，也許是一個後續問題。我知道您說貨運和供應鏈壓力可能比您目前考慮的要嚴重一些。但是，隨著今年餘額的流逝，我們應該如何看待它？它應該 - 就像我們在第二季度一樣，它會變得更好嗎？還是您認為下半年的增長率仍將高於去年？

Yes. Joe, so what we're seeing is that the contracted rate, we're in our annual negotiation cycle now and typically, that gets wrapped up in May. And what we're seeing is those contractual rates are well above where they've been historically, and that's obviously not unique to us. And we typically are obviously looking to push most of our needs through those contracted rates. And those rates are just coming in much higher than I think we or probably most others anticipated. So those rates will be in effect for most of 2022 until the next round of negotiations takes place. And then there's always, obviously, the spot market where you're typically buying some capacity. So we have that baked in. We don't necessarily expect it to get worse, but we also don't necessarily expect it to get better during 2022.

是的。喬，所以我們看到的是合同費率，我們現在處於我們的年度談判週期中，通常會在 5 月結束。我們看到的是這些合同費率遠高於歷史水平，這顯然不是我們獨有的。我們通常顯然希望通過這些合同費率來滿足我們的大部分需求。這些利率只是比我認為我們或可能大多數其他人預期的要高得多。因此，這些費率將在 2022 年的大部分時間裡生效，直到下一輪談判開始。然後，很明顯，你通常會在現貨市場購買一些容量。所以我們已經做好了準備。我們不一定期望它會變得更糟，但我們也不一定期望它在 2022 年會變得更好。

Next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc.

下一個問題來自帶有 KeyBanc 的 Brad Thomas。

This is Andrew on for Brad. And of course, I'd like to add my best wishes to Bruce and his family as well. First question I wanted to go over was your closeout strategy. I'm just wondering if you could provide an update on that. And specifically, what percentage of sales are closeouts currently tracking? And what are you seeing from an availability standpoint for closeout deals?

這是布拉德的安德魯。當然，我也想向布魯斯和他的家人致以最良好的祝愿。我想討論的第一個問題是你的收尾策略。我只是想知道你是否可以提供更新。具體來說，目前正在追踪的銷售百分比是多少？從收盤交易的可用性角度來看，您看到了什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. It's Jack. I'll take that one. So we have talked about creating that limited-time deal treasure hunt, which closeouts is part of buying. And historically, we've said we've been about 55% never-outs in the store and the other 45% that seasonal trend limited-time deals, and closeouts is part of that. We continue to face challenges finding closeouts in Food and Consumables area. But quite honestly, we're finding really good closeout deals, really good limited-time buys in Food and -- sorry, in Soft Home and in Hard Home. We've expanded that into some opportunistic buys in Furniture. And we even actively looked at some deals on lower supplies -- slow-serving product that came through -- sorry, slow delivery product that came through with the Seasonal. So overall, it's becoming a bigger part of our business. Our customers are responding well. We're getting access to good brands, and we're going to continue to push that part of our business.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。是傑克。我會拿那個。因此，我們已經討論過創建限時交易尋寶，這是購買的一部分。從歷史上看，我們已經說過大約 55% 的人在商店里永不售出，另外 45% 的季節性趨勢限時交易，而清倉就是其中的一部分。我們繼續面臨在食品和消耗品領域尋找收尾的挑戰。但老實說，我們正在尋找非常好的收尾交易，非常好的限時購買食品和 - 抱歉，在 Soft Home 和 Hard Home 中。我們已經將其擴展到家具的一些機會主義購買。我們甚至積極研究了一些關於供應量較低的交易——通過的服務緩慢的產品——抱歉，季節性的緩慢交付產品。所以總的來說，它正在成為我們業務的重要組成部分。我們的客戶反應良好。我們正在接觸優質品牌，我們將繼續推動這部分業務。

Got it. And I wanted to shift towards the -- your Furniture category and what you're seeing there. I know that you've done a great job at utilizing the Broyhill brand and bringing in new product. But from a broader industry perspective, we've heard that trends have seen some weakness more recently. I was wondering if you could talk about some of the demand trends you are seeing in your Furniture category, especially now that we're in the first quarter and we've lapped that January stimulus. And then how you expect this category to evolve for you in the quarters ahead?

知道了。我想轉向——你的家具類別和你在那裡看到的東西。我知道您在利用 Broyhill 品牌和引進新產品方面做得很好。但從更廣泛的行業角度來看，我們聽說最近趨勢出現了一些疲軟。我想知道您是否可以談談您在家具類別中看到的一些需求趨勢，特別是現在我們處於第一季度並且我們已經完成了 1 月份的刺激措施。然後你希望這個類別在未來幾個季度為你發展嗎？

Yes. I'll jump in, and Jonathan, if you want to add anything to it. So we saw really strong Furniture sales across the business in the fall, into the fourth quarter. We really constrained ourselves with not being able to get some of the inventory, specifically the Broyhill product. And the Broyhill product -- the customer is responding really well to it. So then what we're seeing as we build back our Broyhill inventories, we started to get better through the end of the quarter. And at the same time, Omicron hit, people weren't getting out to stores, the weather hit, and we had some outside factors that kind of slowed things down. In February, we've seen where it's picked back up. We're confident that we're getting the right product, we're getting back in stock in Broyhill, and we're getting styles and different versions. So this Furniture team and -- is getting some great product, and we're feeling really good about where it's going. From a customer traffic point of view, obviously, with inflationary pressures, people are deciding where they're spending money. And our view will be that we'll have a good offer and continue to go after market share. Anything you want to add, Jonathan?

是的。如果您想添加任何內容，我會加入，還有 Jonathan。因此，我們在秋季到第四季度看到整個企業的家具銷售非常強勁。我們確實限制了自己無法獲得一些庫存，特別是 Broyhill 產品。 Broyhill 產品——客戶對它的反應非常好。因此，我們在重建 Broyhill 庫存時所看到的情況，到本季度末開始變得更好。與此同時，Omicron 來襲，人們沒有去商店，天氣來襲，我們還有一些外部因素讓事情放慢了速度。在二月份，我們已經看到了它的回升。我們相信我們得到了正確的產品，我們在 Broyhill 中恢復了庫存，我們得到了款式和不同的版本。所以這個家具團隊 - 正在獲得一些很棒的產品，我們對它的發展方向感覺非常好。從客戶流量的角度來看，顯然，在通貨膨脹壓力下，人們正在決定他們在哪里花錢。我們的觀點是，我們將提供良好的報價並繼續追求市場份額。喬納森，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Nothing. You covered it, Jack.

沒有什麼。你蓋過了，傑克。

Our next question is from the line of Karen Short with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Karen Short。

This is Zeyn Burak on for Karen Short. I have 2 questions. So your preliminary 2022 outlook called for positive comps, which I think you called out on the Q3 call. What are some of the factors over the past few months that you've seen that are driving that outlook lower? And if you can maybe comment on your expectations around the cadence of sales in Q1, given you'll be lapping the big March stimulus. So where are you running now versus your expectations through the remainder of the quarter? And I have a follow-up.

這是凱倫·肖特的澤恩·布拉克。我有 2 個問題。因此，您對 2022 年的初步展望需要積極的補償，我認為您在第三季度的電話會議上已經提出了這一要求。在過去幾個月中，您看到哪些因素導致該前景走低？如果您可以評論您對第一季度銷售節奏的預期，因為您將享受 3 月份的大規模刺激措施。那麼，與本季度剩餘時間的預期相比，您現在在哪裡運行？我有一個後續行動。

Yes. Zeyn, let me take a pass to that. So what we said on the December earnings call was that we expected positive overall sales growth in 2022. And we expect to get at least a couple of percentage points of growth from net new stores. So the implication was better than a down 2 negative comp. So what we're talking about today is that we're targeting a flat comp. So we think that is consistent with what we said back in December. So again, it's the distinction between total sales and comp sales. But that was what we said back in December. And clearly, the implication of what we're saying today is that we're going to have top line growth with a flat comp and net new stores adding on top of that to create growth overall.

是的。 Zeyn，讓我來看看。因此，我們在 12 月的財報電話會議上表示，我們預計 2022 年的整體銷售額將實現正增長。我們預計淨新店將至少實現幾個百分點的增長。因此，這意味著比下降 2 負補償要好。所以我們今天要討論的是我們的目標是扁平化。所以我們認為這與我們在 12 月所說的一致。同樣，這是總銷售額和補償銷售額之間的區別。但這就是我們在 12 月所說的。很明顯，我們今天所說的話的含義是，我們將實現頂線增長，並在此基礎上增加淨新店以創造整體增長。

Sorry, and then the second part of your question was about the cadence, I think, within the first quarter. And obviously, it's really complicated because of some of the references you're alluding to. February was a pretty clean comparison because that was pre-COVID 2 years ago. So we really haven't seen any impact of stimulus or anything else. So that's why we think that 2-year comp in February, which accelerated ahead of where we were in Q4, is meaningful. And that was despite the fact, again, that we saw some slower tax refunds and still had some inventory headwinds, particularly in Seasonal, to a lesser degree in Furniture, although they're getting better, as Jack spoke to.

對不起，然後你的問題的第二部分是關於節奏的，我認為，在第一季度。顯然，由於您提到的一些參考資料，這真的很複雜。 2 月是一個相當乾淨的比較，因為那是 2 年前的 COVID 之前。所以我們真的沒有看到刺激或其他任何東西的任何影響。因此，這就是為什麼我們認為 2 月份的 2 年比較，比我們在第四季度的速度更快，是有意義的。儘管事實上，我們再次看到退稅速度較慢，並且仍然有一些庫存逆風，特別是在季節性方面，在家具方面的程度較小，儘管正如傑克所說的那樣，它們正在變得更好。

So as we look out through the balance of the quarter, when we hit March, on a 1-year basis, we're up against the American Rescue Plan Act stimulus of last year. And then that was hit very hard in March. And then we're still there in April, although it had a less significant impact. But what we're saying there, as we said in the prepared remarks, is that there was a 12 comp point impact of stimulus positively in 2021 that we're lapping. So when we talk about being down 10 in Q1 of this year in total, if you adjusted out the stimulus impact of that, that would imply up around 2 on an underlying basis in 2022. And that is consistent with what we think we're seeing in the business today. Although I would certainly agree that, as implied in your question, there's a lot of complexity and a lot of moving parts in it. But that's how we're looking at it.

因此，當我們查看本季度的餘額時，當我們在 3 月份以 1 年為基礎時，我們正在反對去年的美國救援計劃法案刺激措施。然後在三月份受到了很大的打擊。然後我們仍然在四月在那裡，儘管它的影響不那麼顯著。但是，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們在那裡所說的是，我們正在研究的 2021 年刺激措施產生了 12 個補償點的積極影響。因此，當我們談到今年第一季度總共下降 10 倍時，如果您調整其刺激影響，這將意味著 2022 年的潛在基礎上增加約 2 倍。這與我們認為的一致看到今天的業務。儘管我當然同意，正如您的問題所暗示的那樣，其中有很多複雜性和很多活動部分。但這就是我們看待它的方式。

Thank you for the clarification, that's very helpful. And can you talk a little bit about your expectations around traffic and ticket and AUR and UPTs within ticket in 2022?

謝謝你的澄清，這很有幫助。您能否談談您對 2022 年車票內的流量和車票以及 AUR 和 UPT 的期望？

Yes. I'll be happy to kick off there, Jack, and if there's anything you want to add. Generally speaking, what we've seen is that we've been driving sales through higher basket, higher AUR, including mix shift, and the traffic has been relatively challenging. However, I mean, our traffic when you look at those compared to general bricks-and-mortar retail traffic and you normalize for stimulus and everything is that actually pretty reasonable. And the other key consideration for us is the mix of our business is shifting over time, away from higher-frequency items towards higher-ticket items, which are not inherently shopped as frequently. So we would expect, to some degree, that trend to continue of basket offsetting traffic challenges and basket certainly driving most of our comp growth on a forward-looking basis over the coming years. Jack, anything to add on that?

是的。傑克，我很樂意從這裡開始，如果你有什麼想補充的。一般來說，我們看到的是，我們一直在通過更高的購物籃、更高的 AUR（包括混合轉移）來推動銷售，而且流量相對具有挑戰性。但是，我的意思是，當您將我們的流量與一般實體零售流量進行比較時，您會針對刺激進行標準化，一切實際上都非常合理。對我們來說，另一個關鍵考慮因素是我們的業務組合正在隨著時間的推移而發生變化，從高頻商品轉向價格較高的商品，這些商品本來就沒有那麼頻繁地購物。因此，我們預計，在某種程度上，籃子抵消交通挑戰的趨勢將繼續，籃子肯定會在未來幾年前瞻性地推動我們的大部分收入增長。傑克，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. And thanks for the question, Zeyn. So one of the things we're really excited about is the way we're pricing and using some pricing models and making it more of a muscle in the business. And so as we manage our AURs, we're being much more thoughtful about the way we're protecting opening price points, ensuring that we've got some more customer come in, but also making sure that as we get the right flow-through as we stay competitive in the marketplace. And so we'll see some inflationary pressures on AUR and it going up, but we're getting much more structured and sophisticated in the way we're thinking about that from a customer's lens across the whole store. So -- and the early results are positive for us, both on a sales point of view and a margin point of view.

是的。感謝 Zeyn 的提問。因此，我們真正感到興奮的一件事是我們定價和使用一些定價模型的方式，並使其在業務中更加強大。因此，在我們管理 AUR 時，我們對保護開盤價點的方式更加深思熟慮，確保我們有更多的客戶進來，同時確保我們獲得正確的流程——通過，因為我們在市場上保持競爭力。因此，我們將看到 AUR 面臨一些通脹壓力並且它會上升，但我們從整個商店的客戶角度考慮這一點的方式變得更加結構化和復雜。所以 - 從銷售的角度和利潤的角度來看，早期的結果對我們來說都是積極的。

Actually, if I can ask one more. Why is there a limited outlook on FY '22, especially given your confidence on long-term sales and margins?

其實，如果我可以再問一個。為什麼 22 財年的前景有限，尤其是考慮到您對長期銷售和利潤率的信心？

Yes, Zeyn. Well, I think we've given some pretty good guardrails for 2022. I think we -- there is uncertainty about how the consumer is going to behave over the coming quarters, how quickly the supply chain will get back to normal. And that's -- while we think we kind of have the freight piece of it relatively well covered, there's still uncertainty about does that normalize, how does that affect inventory levels. So there's still some, I think, more than typical uncertainties, how does the consumer react to inflation more generally, whether specific to our product or the general environment, obviously, geopolitical uncertainty today. So all those things put us in a position where we think we're in somewhat sort of uncharted sort of territory. And we just think it's appropriate to be a little bit more cautious. We do hope to resume giving full year guidance fairly soon. But at this point in the cycle, we felt doing Q1 guidance and then some higher level guardrails for the full year were the most appropriate path to take.

是的，澤恩。好吧，我認為我們已經為 2022 年設置了一些非常好的護欄。我認為我們——對於未來幾個季度消費者的行為方式、供應鏈恢復正常的速度有多快存在不確定性。那就是 - 雖然我們認為我們已經相對較好地覆蓋了其中的貨運部分，但仍然存在不確定性是否正常化，這將如何影響庫存水平。因此，我認為，除了典型的不確定性之外，消費者對通脹的反應如何更普遍，無論是針對我們的產品還是總體環境，顯然是今天的地緣政治不確定性。所以所有這些事情讓我們處於一個我們認為我們處於某種未知領域的位置。我們只是認為稍微謹慎一點是合適的。我們確實希望很快恢復提供全年指導。但在這個週期的這一點上，我們覺得做第一季度的指導，然後為全年制定一些更高級別的護欄是最合適的路徑。

Our final question today comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Jason Haas。

So the first is just on we've heard a lot about the lower-income customer getting into a worse financial position after the rollout of stimulus and government support programs. So I'm curious, just with that kind of out there something going on in the macro environment, if you're seeing any evidence of that in the business. Maybe that customer is trading down from like best products to good products. Or I don't know if to what extent if at all you expect to see or you're starting to see a customer trade down and maybe wasn't shopping at Big Lots before is now starting to or you expect that also. Just kind of curious if you're seeing any of that in the business at all.

所以第一個是我們聽到很多關於低收入客戶在推出刺激和政府支持計劃後財務狀況惡化的消息。所以我很好奇，如果你在業務中看到任何證據，那麼宏觀環境中就會發生這種情況。也許那個客戶正在從最好的產品降價到好產品。或者我不知道您是否希望看到，或者您開始看到客戶交易量下降，並且可能以前沒有在 Biglots 購物現在開始或者您也希望看到這種情況。只是有點好奇，如果您在業務中看到任何這些。

Yes. I guess I would say, Jason, that we think our underlying business trends have been strong. I mean there were some specific factors that hurt us in January, some external and some internal in terms of inventory availability. But bracketing all that, we think our underlying business is strong. And I would say at this point, we haven't seen clearly yet, at least, and we're certainly looking very closely at it, but we haven't seen those factors playing out. Jack, anything to add on that?

是的。我想我會說，傑森，我們認為我們的潛在業務趨勢一直很強勁。我的意思是在 1 月份有一些特定因素對我們造成了傷害，一些外部因素和一些內部因素在庫存可用性方面。但將所有這些括起來，我們認為我們的基礎業務很強大。我想說，在這一點上，我們至少還沒有看清楚，而且我們肯定會非常仔細地研究它，但我們還沒有看到這些因素發揮作用。傑克，有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Jason. And I would add, if you think about -- and Bruce talked about this with our private brands, we've got done over $700 million in Broyhill. Real Living is fast-growing, over $600 million. Those are both on their way to being billion-dollar brands for us. And so as the customer makes different choices and categories, we're really well positioned to have both a Broyhill price offer and a Real Living kind of middle to opening price point offer. And we're seeing that great success across the business from categories.

是的。謝謝你的問題，傑森。我想補充一下，如果你想一想——布魯斯和我們的自有品牌談到了這一點，我們已經在布羅伊希爾完成了超過 7 億美元的交易。 Real Living 正在快速增長，超過 6 億美元。這些都正在成為我們價值數十億美元的品牌。因此，當客戶做出不同的選擇和類別時，我們非常有能力提供 Broyhill 價格報價和 Real Living 類型的中到開盤價報價。我們在各個類別的業務中都看到了巨大的成功。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe for Jonathan on the gross margin improvement through the year. It sounds like you're hopeful to do some more inventory counts and improve the shrink issue. Curious if you could talk about the other drivers there in terms of freight -- or sorry, the other, I guess, expectations there in terms of freight, what the expectation would be for the shrink headwind just to get it to your gross margin outlook?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許對於喬納森來說，全年的毛利率有所改善。聽起來您希望做更多的庫存盤點並改善收縮問題。好奇您是否可以在貨運方面談論那裡的其他司機 - 或者對不起，我想，另一個，我想，在貨運方面的預期，對於縮小逆風的預期是什麼，只是為了達到您的毛利率前景?

Yes. So the freight again, Jason, is a bigger headwind than we thought 3 months ago. The contractual rates are coming in fairly significantly higher than we thought. And we're able to pass some of that through, but not all of it. So that's been an incremental headwind. And as you recall, on the last call in December, we said we expect the gross margin rate to be up in '22. We're now guiding to flat. And that reflects building in some incremental freight pressure and some incremental shrink expense. Although again, we do expect to show some improvement in shrink later in the year, not get all the way back to probably '20 levels this year, but certainly make significant progress on that.

是的。因此，傑森，貨運再次成為比我們 3 個月前想像的更大的逆風。合同費率比我們想像的要高得多。我們能夠通過其中的一些，但不是全部。所以這是一個漸進的逆風。你還記得，在 12 月的最後一次電話會議上，我們說我們預計毛利率會在 22 年上升。我們現在正引導至平。這反映了一些增加的貨運壓力和一些增加的收縮費用。雖然同樣，我們確實希望在今年晚些時候顯示收縮方面的一些改善，今年不會一直回到可能的 20 年水平，但肯定會在這方面取得重大進展。

We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back to Jonathan Ramsden for some closing comments.

我們的問答環節已經結束。現在，我將把電話轉回給 Jonathan Ramsden，以徵求一些結束意見。

So thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. Once again, our thoughts are with Bruce and his family. But I can certainly say that Bruce and all of us are excited to update you on our progress on the next quarterly call and at investor events we'll be holding in the meantime, and continue to reaffirm our confidence that our strategies are putting us on the right track. And again, look forward to having the opportunity to share more with you in coming calls. Thank you for joining us today.

所以，謝謝大家加入我們今天的電話會議。再一次，我們的想法與布魯斯和他的家人在一起。但我可以肯定地說，布魯斯和我們所有人都很高興在下一個季度電話會議和同時舉行的投資者活動中向您介紹我們的進展，並繼續重申我們的信心，即我們的戰略正在推動我們正確的軌道。再次，期待有機會在來電中與您分享更多信息。感謝您今天加入我們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. A replay of this call will be available to you by 12 noon Eastern Time this afternoon, March 3. The replay will end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, March 18. You can access the replay by dialing toll-free, (877) 660-6853 and enter replay confirmation 13727152, followed by the pound sign. The toll number is 1 (201) 612-7415, replay confirmation 13727152, followed by the pound sign. You may now disconnect, and have a great day. We thank you for your participation.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議和網絡直播到此結束。您將在東部時間今天下午 3 月 3 日中午 12 點之前重播此電話。重播將在晚上 11:59 結束。東部時間 3 月 18 日星期五。您可以通過撥打免費電話 (877) 660-6853 訪問重播，然後輸入重播確認 13727152，然後輸入井號。收費號碼為 1 (201) 612-7415，重播確認 13727152，後接井號。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。我們感謝您的參與。