必和必拓 (BHP) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello and thank you for joining us to hear about BHP’s results for the 2025 financial year. I’m joined by our Chief Financial Officer, Vandita Pant. This year again demonstrated BHP’s resilience, strength and operational excellence.

您好，感謝您加入我們，了解必和必拓 2025 財年的表現。和我一起參加的是我們的財務長 Vandita Pant。今年再次證明了必和必拓的韌性、實力和卓越營運。

Our strategy remains clear and simple. We choose to be in highly attractive commodities with resilient demand and steep cost curves. We own world-class assets that are large, long life, low cost and with options to grow.

我們的策略依然清晰而簡單。我們選擇具有強烈需求和陡峭成本曲線的極具吸引力的商品。我們擁有世界一流的資產，這些資產規模龐大、壽命長、成本低，並且具有成長選擇。

We operate them excellently, generating maximum possible shareholder value for the capital deployed. And we bring a differentiated approach and focus to creating social value with those around us.

我們出色地經營這些公司，為所部署的資本創造最大的股東價值。我們採用差異化的方法並致力於與周圍的人一起創造社會價值。

Our results continue to prove the value of this strategy. Against the backdrop of our strategy, we continuously refine our plans to optimize for risk, value, and growth.

我們的結果繼續證明了這項策略的價值。在我們的策略背景下，我們不斷完善我們的計劃，以優化風險、價值和成長。

As we'll go through shortly, we've refined the sequencing of some of our projects. Assuming these projects proceed, it could deliver average production growth of 2.2% per annum over the next decade.

正如我們即將介紹的，我們已經改進了一些項目的排序。假設這些項目順利進行，未來十年平均產量將成長 2.2%。

We've reduced our capital spend by $1 billion per year over the medium term, and we've revised our target net debt range to $10 billion to $20 billion to reflect the significant improvement in our business and portfolio since it was last set.

我們在中期內每年減少 10 億美元的資本支出，並將目標淨債務範圍修改為 100 億美元至 200 億美元，以反映自上次設定以來我們的業務和投資組合的顯著改善。

But before we get into these, let's look at our results.

但在討論這些之前，讓我們先看看我們的結果。

2025 has been another strong year. We delivered on our full year guidance across our suite of businesses and achieved record iron ore and copper production. In copper, we produce more than 2 million tons, having grown volumes by 28% over the past three years.

2025 年又是強勁的一年。我們各項業務均實現了全年預期，鐵礦石和銅產量均創歷史新高。我們的銅產量超過 200 萬噸，過去三年增加了 28%。

Our operational results have underpinned another year of sector leading margins and strong cash flows, resulting in a final dividend of $0.60 per share, and this takes our full year dividend to $5.6 billion. The creation of shareholder value goes hand in hand with the creation of social value. It helps to underpin stable operations, manage risk, and open doors to opportunities, partnerships, talent, and capital.

我們的營運表現支撐了我們又一年領先業界的利潤率和強勁的現金流，最終股息為每股 0.60 美元，這使我們的全年股息達到 56 億美元。股東價值的創造與社會價值的創造相輔相成。它有助於鞏固穩定的營運、管理風險並為機會、合作夥伴關係、人才和資本打開大門。

Our contribution to the communities and countries in which we operate goes well beyond the direct dollars, but those figures are still important, and this year we contributed almost $47 billion globally through wages, taxes, royalties, community contributions, and payments to suppliers and shareholders.

我們對經營所在地的社區和國家的貢獻遠遠超出了直接的美元收入，但這些數字仍然很重要，今年我們透過工資、稅收、特許權使用費、社區捐款以及支付給供應商和股東的款項，在全球貢獻了近 470 億美元。

Earlier this year, we achieved gender balance in our global employee workforce, with female representation now at 41.3%. This has been a very significant achievement, and it has enabled better underlying business performance, contributing to a BHP that is safer, more productive, and more reliable than in 2016 when we announced this ambitious goal.

今年早些時候，我們實現了全球員工隊伍的性別平衡，女性員工佔目前為 41.3%。這是一項非常重大的成就，它實現了更好的基礎業務績效，有助於必和必拓比我們 2016 年宣布這一雄心勃勃的目標時更加安全、高效和可靠。

Of course, nothing matters more than the safety of our people. This financial year we realized the year on year improvements in key safety metrics, and most importantly, no one lost their life on the job.

當然，沒有什麼比我們人民的安全更重要。在本財政年度，我們實現了關鍵安全指標的逐年改善，最重要的是，沒有人在工作中喪生。

Over the past five years, our teams have achieved a 63% reduction in high potential injury frequency. These are incidents where someone was injured, even in a minor way, but which could potentially have caused a fatality. We continue our efforts to eliminate these incidents fully from BHP.

在過去五年中，我們的團隊已將高潛在傷害頻率降低了 63%。這些事件中有人受傷，即使只是輕微傷，但可能會導致死亡。我們將繼續努力，徹底消除必和必拓 (BHP) 的此類事件。

Constant vigilance on safety is part of the high performance that drives productivity in our assets and enables value creation.

持續關注安全是提高我們資產生產力和創造價值的高效能的一部分。

With that, I'll hand over to Vandita to take you through our financial performance.

接下來，我將交給 Vandita 來向您介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Mike. We have again delivered a strong set of results. Our underlying EBITDA margin remained very healthy at 53%. This continues our track record of achieving an average margin exceeding 50% over the past 20 years.

謝謝，麥克。我們再次取得了一系列強勁的成果。我們的基礎 EBITDA 利潤率仍然非常健康，達到 53%。這延續了我們過去 20 年平均利潤率超過 50% 的記錄。

Our return on capital employed was 21%. As Mike mentioned earlier, we paid a significant amount of taxes and royalties through the year. This year we incurred almost $10 billion of taxes and royalties against an underlying attributable profit of $10.2 billion.

我們的資本使用報酬率為21%。正如麥克之前提到的，我們全年支付了大量的稅金和特許權使用費。今年，我們產生了近 100 億美元的稅金和特許權使用費，而基礎可歸屬利潤為 102 億美元。

Every six months under the capital allocation framework, we review potential returns to shareholders to ensure shareholder outcomes reflect how the business has performed, on the back of our strong performance and the strength of our balance sheet, we have determined a final dividend of $0.60 per share, a payout ratio of 60%.

在資本配置框架下，我們每六個月審查一次股東的潛在回報，以確保股東結果反映業務表現，在強勁的業績和強勁的資產負債表的支持下，我們確定每股 0.60 美元的末期股息，派息率為 60%。

We continue to perform well in the areas we can control with solid volume growth, and disciplined cost management.

透過穩健的銷售成長和嚴格的成本管理，我們在可控制的領域繼續表現良好。

As you can see on the slide, the 10% decline in a EBITDA was due wholly to commodity prices. The benefits we received from favorable foreign exchange rates was offset by inflationary pressures.

正如您在幻燈片上看到的，EBITDA 的 10% 下降完全是由於商品價格下降造成的。我們從優惠的外匯匯率中獲得的利益被通膨壓力所抵銷。

We delivered a strong year operationally with copper equivalent volume growth up around 4%. This was partly offset by an increase in productive movement which sets us up for the future, inventory drawdowns to manage through weather and other external events, and higher labor costs over and above CPI inflation.

我們今年的營運表現強勁，銅當量產量成長了約 4%。這在一定程度上被生產活動的增加所抵消，生產活動的增加為我們的未來做好了準備，庫存減少以應對天氣和其他外部事件，以及高於消費者物價指數通膨的勞動力成本。

Overall, unit costs at our major assets improved almost 5% year on year despite inflation. This strong performance was achieved across the business, an impressive effort given the external headwinds we navigated.

總體而言，儘管通貨膨脹，但我們主要資產的單位成本比去年同期改善了近 5%。整個業務都取得瞭如此強勁的業績，考慮到我們所面臨的外部阻力，這是一項令人印象深刻的努力。

Western Australia iron ore once again demonstrated its position as the world's leading iron ore business. Record production and record shipments, despite the impact of severe weather, drove an EBITDA margin of 63%.

西澳鐵礦石再次彰顯了其全球龍頭鐵礦石企業的地位。儘管受到惡劣天氣的影響，但創紀錄的產量和出貨量仍推動 EBITDA 利潤率達到 63%。

With even costs of just $17.29 per ton, we have now been the lowest cost major iron ore producer globally for six years. BMA also performed well with volumes up 5% despite weather-related disruptions. Our work to stabilize the supply chain is progressing and already delivering results. And as at New South Wales Energy Coal, we continue to generate solid results. The transition to closure is progressing as planned.

由於每噸成本僅為 17.29 美元，我們已連續六年成為全球成本最低的主要鐵礦石生產商。儘管受到天氣影響，BMA 的表現也很好，交易量仍然增加了 5%。我們穩定供應鏈的工作正在取得進展並已取得成效。和新南威爾斯能源煤炭公司一樣，我們持續取得穩健的表現。關閉工作正在按計劃進行。

We have secured approval to continue mining until June 2030, and we have partnered to explore pumped hydro energy storage as a potential at the site after mining ceases.

我們已獲得批准繼續採礦至 2030 年 6 月，我們已與合作夥伴共同探索在採礦停止後在該地點使用抽水蓄能的潛力。

In copper, we generated a record $12 billion of EBITDA this year, 45% of the group total at an impressive margin of 59%. Escondida delivered a 16% increase in volumes, to 1.3 million tonnes – it’s highest in 17 years – at a cost of $1.19 per pound – an improvement of 18%. Spence continued to perform well, achieving record production. And Copper South Australia demonstrated steady and reliable underlying performance, despite a weather-related power outage in October which impacted operations.

在銅業務方面，我們今年的 EBITDA 達到了創紀錄的 120 億美元，佔集團總額的 45%，利潤率高達 59%。埃斯孔迪達 (Escondida) 銅礦產量成長 16%，達到 130 萬噸，為 17 年來的最高產量，成本為每磅 1.19 美元，成長了 18%。斯彭斯繼續表現出色，創下了紀錄。儘管 10 月因天氣原因發生停電，影響了運營，南澳大利亞銅業公司仍表現出穩定可靠的基本業績。

Our copper assets also benefit from significant by-product credits. Not only are we the world’s largest copper producer, but we are also a sizeable gold, silver and uranium producer. If Copper South Australia were a standalone business, it would be a top-10 uranium producer globally, and the fifth largest gold producer on the ASX.

我們的銅資產也受益於大量副產品信貸。我們不僅是世界上最大的銅生產國，也是規模龐大的黃金、白銀和鈾生產國。如果南澳銅業公司是獨立企業，它將成為全球十大鈾生產商之一，也是澳洲證券交易所第五大黃金生產商。

Our focus on operational excellence around the business, underpinned by our BHP Operating System, is delivering clear results. Our capital and location framework continues to install discipline and deliver both strong shareholder returns and value driven growth.

我們專注於業務的卓越運營，並以 BHP 作業系統為基礎，取得了顯著的成果。我們的資本和位置框架繼續建立紀律並帶來強勁的股東回報和價值驅動的成長。

We remain fully committed to this framework, which includes maintaining a strong balance sheet and paying a minimum dividend of 50% of underlying attributable profit each reporting period.

我們將繼續全力致力於這個框架，包括維持強勁的資產負債表和在每個報告期間支付至少相當於基礎可分配利潤 50% 的股息。

Within this framework, we look to ensure every dollar of our capital is used to maximum potential. This is what we call capital productivity.

在這個框架內，我們希望確保我們的每一分資本都得到最大限度的利用。這就是我們所說的資本生產力。

We are focusing ever more sharply on making more dynamic capital optimization choices. We continue to sequence projects to enhance both value and deliverability and within projects we are seeking to improve capital efficiency through optimizing scale and design.

我們更加重視做出更具活力的資本優化選擇。我們繼續對專案進行排序，以提高價值和可交付性，並在專案中尋求透過優化規模和設計來提高資本效率。

We are redoubling our focus on deploying our BHP operating system in projects to enhance project excellence. We are also using strategic partnerships which bring complementary skills and help manage risks.

我們正加倍努力地在專案中部署 BHP 作業系統，以提高專案的卓越性。我們也利用策略夥伴關係來帶來互補的技能並幫助管理風險。

And we continue to investigate opportunities to unlock capital from our assets, for example, non-core infrastructure, and recycle it into higher returning opportunities.

我們將繼續尋找從資產中釋放資本的機會，例如非核心基礎設施，並將其回收為回報更高的機會。

This year we have continued to optimize the sequencing of our projects. Mike will take you through these changes shortly. In addition, the pace of development of our decarbonization technology has slowed, particularly in relation to diesel displacement.

今年我們繼續優化項目排序。麥克將很快帶您了解這些變化。此外，我們的脫碳技術發展速度已放緩，特別是在柴油替代方面。

We expect our previously anticipated spend on operational decarbonisation to now be in the 2030s aligned with the delayed timeline for critical technologies to become commercially available. Importantly, we remain on track to meet our 2030 target for operational greenhouse gas emissions.

我們預計，我們先前預計的營運脫碳支出將在 2030 年代實現，這與關鍵技術商業化的延遲時間表一致。重要的是，我們仍有望實現 2030 年營運溫室氣體排放目標。

Overall, we now expect capital and exploration spend to be around $11 billion in both FY26 and '27 and to average $10 billion per year over the medium term, around $1 billion per year lower than previous guidance.

總體而言，我們現在預計 26 財年和 27 財年的資本和勘探支出約為 110 億美元，中期平均每年 100 億美元，比先前的預期低約 10 億美元。

We remain flexible to adjust our capital expenditure and phasing to accommodate market dynamics and cash flow generation.

我們將繼續靈活調整資本支出和分階段，以適應市場動態和現金流量產生。

We are also putting a strong balance sheet to work. Over the last three years since we last changed our net debt target range, our underlying business and portfolio has improved significantly. More copper production with increasing confidence in our growth plans, more iron ore production at lower cost than the competition, and a higher quality steel making coal business.

我們也正在打造強勁的資產負債表。自從我們上次改變淨債務目標範圍以來的三年裡，我們的基礎業務和投資組合得到了顯著改善。隨著我們對成長計畫的信心不斷增強，銅產量也將增加，鐵礦石產量也將增加，成本也將低於競爭對手，煉鋼煤業務的品質也將提高。

We have more operational stability and have strengthened our unit cost leadership. This is against a backdrop of higher marginal cost across the industry due to inflation, which supports higher commodity price flows and benefits, low cost producers, especially in a downturn.

我們的營運更加穩定，單位成本領先優勢也得到加強。這是在通貨膨脹導致整個行業邊際成本上升的背景下發生的，通貨膨脹支持了更高的商品價格流動和效益，尤其是在經濟低迷時期，低成本生產商也受益匪淺。

In short, BHP is a stronger, more resilient company. And in line with the enhanced debt servicing capacity this brings, we have revised our netted target range to $10 billion to $20 billion. Even at the top end of this revised range, our leverage remains conservative and our balance sheets strong.

簡而言之，必和必拓是一家實力更強、更具韌性的公司。為了提高償債能力，我們將淨目標範圍修改為 100 億美元至 200 億美元。即使處於這一修訂範圍的高端，我們的槓桿率仍然保持保守，資產負債表也保持強勁。

I'll now hand back to Mike to take you through our growth plans.

現在我將把話題交還給麥克，讓他向大家介紹我們的成長計畫。

Thanks Vandita. Before I outline our plans, I want to spend a couple of minutes on how we see our operating environment in the near term.

謝謝 Vandita。在概述我們的計劃之前，我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們如何看待近期的營運環境。

While economies around the world continue to navigate policy uncertainty, China and India again demonstrated resilient economic and commodity demand growth.

在全球各國經濟體持續應對政策不確定性的同時，中國和印度再次展現強勁的經濟和大宗商品需求成長。

In the first half of this year, China exceeded economic growth expectations with strong export growth. We also saw robust domestic commodity demand from a variety of sectors, including infrastructure and electrification, even as demand from the property sector remains subdued.

今年上半年，中國經濟成長超出預期，出口成長強勁。我們也看到，儘管房地產行業的需求依然低迷，但基礎設施和電氣化等各個領域的國內大宗商品需求仍然強勁。

China's economic growth is expected to remain resilient, even as the pace moderates slightly in the second half, as the boost from pulled forward exports unwinds and new tariffs take effect.

儘管下半年中國經濟成長速度會略有放緩，但隨著前期出口拉動效應逐漸減弱以及新關稅生效，中國經濟成長預計將保持韌性。

That said, it has many policy levers at its disposal to support its domestic economy and its exports are likely to remain resilient due to its significant cost competitiveness.

儘管如此，中國仍擁有多項政策槓桿來支持國內經濟，而且由於其強大的成本競爭力，其出口很可能保持韌性。

India is projected to remain the fastest growing major economy and a bright spot for commodity demand. Advanced economies will need to navigate the evolving policy landscape, although supportive fiscal and monetary policy will help mitigate risks.

預計印度仍將是成長最快的主要經濟體，並成為大宗商品需求的亮點。儘管支持性的財政和貨幣政策將有助於降低風險，但已開發經濟體仍需要應對不斷變化的政策格局。

In short, while the global backdrop of policy uncertainty continues to influence investment and trade flows and acts as a headwind for economic activity, demand for commodities has been resilient, and we expect it to remain so.

簡而言之，儘管全球政策不確定性的背景持續影響投資和貿易流動，並對經濟活動產生不利影響，但商品需求一直保持彈性，我們預計這種趨勢將持續下去。

We're also seeing an increasing focus on critical mineral supply and supply chain security across the globe, and this reflects a growing understanding and acceptance of the critical role mining will play in supporting national security, energy transition, and technology development.

我們也看到全球越來越關注關鍵礦產供應和供應鏈安全，這反映出人們越來越理解和接受採礦業在支持國家安全、能源轉型和技術發展方面發揮的關鍵作用。

We remain well positioned to succeed both now and into the future. But it's also worth taking a moment to celebrate our past. Last week we marked 140 years of BHP's journey. It's a remarkable story of transformation and resilience, and one we can all be proud of.

我們現在和將來都處於有利地位，能夠取得成功。但我們也值得花點時間來慶祝我們的過去。上週，我們紀念了必和必拓成立 140 週年。這是一個關於轉變和韌性的非凡故事，我們都可以為此感到自豪。

Over this time we have been deliberate in our choices about the businesses and commodities to be in and those that we have chosen to exit. We know that commodity choice is critical to long term value creation. We have reshaped our portfolio in anticipation of the mega trends playing out around us.

在此期間，我們對於進入和退出哪些業務和商品進行了慎重的選擇。我們知道商品選擇對於長期價值創造至關重要。我們已經重塑了我們的投資組合，以適應我們周圍正在發生的大趨勢。

A growing global population increasingly living in cities seeking higher standards of living and eating more and better food. That demand is only amplified by the energy transition and the AI revolution driving data centers and digitalization.

全球越來越多的人口居住在城市，以追求更高的生活水平和吃更多更好的食物。能源轉型和推動資料中心和數位化的人工智慧革命只會加劇這種需求。

The choices we've made set us apart from our competitors and have strengthened our position. Our commodities have large markets, resilient demand, and steep cost curves.

我們所做的選擇使我們有別於競爭對手，並鞏固了我們的地位。我們的商品市場廣闊、需求強勁、成本曲線陡峭。

The world is going to need a lot more steelmaking materials, a lot more copper, and a lot more potash. In these commodities we are discerning about the assets we own. They are large and in world-class resource basins, providing decades of optionality and future growth.

世界將需要更多的煉鋼材料、更多的銅和更多的鉀。在這些商品中，我們對所擁有的資產有著清楚的認知。它們規模龐大，位於世界級的資源盆地中，可提供數十年的選擇性和未來成長。

They are in top tier mining regions with lower inherent risks. And when combined with our operating excellence, they're well placed to be low cost and resilient through the cycle.

它們位於頂級礦區，固有風險較低。當與我們卓越的營運相結合時，它們就能夠在整個週期中保持低成本和彈性。

At WAIO we have around 30 billion tons of Pilbara iron ore, 95% of which is within 50 kilometers of existing infrastructure and which we produce at lower cost than anyone else. At BMA, following the optimization of our portfolio over the past several years, around 90% of our production is now linked to the premium price index.

在 WAIO，我們擁有約 300 億噸皮爾巴拉鐵礦石，其中 95% 位於現有基礎設施 50 公里範圍內，而且我們的生產成本比其他任何人都低。在 BMA，經過過去幾年對產品組合的優化，目前約有 90% 的產品與溢價指數掛鉤。

We expect these higher quality coals to be increasingly valued for their role in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of blast furnaces. Escondida is the world's largest copper mine, the world's largest copper resource, and is one of the lowest cost producers in Chile.

我們預計，這些更高品質的煤炭將因其在降低高爐溫室氣體排放強度方面的作用而受到越來越高的重視。埃斯孔迪達銅礦是全球最大的銅礦，擁有全球最大的銅資源，也是智利成本最低的銅生產商之一。

And we also have a suite of world class copper and potash assets in South Australia and Canada and through our joint ventures in the US with Resolution and in Argentina with Viunia, which I'll talk about shortly.

我們還在南澳大利亞和加拿大擁有一系列世界一流的銅和鉀肥資產，並透過我們與美國 Resolution 和在阿根廷與 Viunia 成立的合資企業擁有這些資產，我稍後會談到這些資產。

This unique portfolio of world class assets and attractive commodities and our operational excellence underpin our strong track record. The way we engage our people enabled by our BHP operating system unlocks continuous improvement. Our systems and structures allow us to quickly replicate our successes at one asset across the broader business, and you can see this in the chart on the left, the impact of that approach.

這獨特的世界級資產和極具吸引力的商品組合以及我們卓越的營運鞏固了我們良好的業績記錄。我們的 BHP 作業系統支援員工參與的方式可以實現持續改進。我們的系統和結構使我們能夠快速地將一項資產的成功複製到更廣泛的業務中，您可以在左側的圖表中看到這種方法的影響。

Over the past decade, our EBITDA margin has averaged 55%, around 10% points above our closest major competitor.

在過去十年中，我們的 EBITDA 利潤率平均為 55%，比我們最接近的主要競爭對手高出約 10 個百分點。

This consistency and resilience through the cycle are the hallmarks of BHP. We know our success also depends on the way we allocate capital, and as Vandita mentioned, we've continued to refine the sequence of our projects while maintaining our growth outlook and optimizing capital deployment.

這種週期性的一致性和彈性是必和必拓的標誌。我們知道我們的成功也取決於我們分配資本的方式，正如 Vandita 所提到的，我們在維持成長前景和優化資本配置的同時，不斷完善專案順序。

A great strength of our assets is the optionality that comes with their scale and longevity. It allows us to deliberately and strategically choose if, when, and how we grow production.

我們的資產的一大優勢在於其規模和壽命所帶來的可選性。它使我們能夠慎重、有策略地選擇是否、何時以及如何增加產量。

And I'll step through some of these in detail now. First, let me talk about Jansen. Last month, for stage 1, we announced updated cost and schedule estimates, including for first production to revert to the original schedule. I'm disappointed. Clearly this is not where we want to be. We encountered higher inflation and cost escalation than anticipated.

現在我將詳細介紹其中的一些內容。首先，我來談談詹森。上個月，對於第一階段，我們宣布了更新的成本和進度估算，包括第一批生產恢復到原計劃。我很失望。顯然這不是我們想要的。我們遭遇了比預期更高的通貨膨脹和成本上漲。

And lower productivity on certain aspects of the project, particularly more recently as we've moved progressively into surface works. We've taken action to contain the increasing cost, and we will apply learnings to how we plan and execute projects more broadly.

專案某些方面的生產力較低，特別是最近我們逐步進入地面工程。我們已採取行動來控制不斷增加的成本，並將把所學應用到我們更廣泛的專案規劃和執行方式中。

The standard of excellence we aspire to in projects is no different to how we run our operations.

我們在專案中追求的卓越標準與我們營運的方式沒有什麼不同。

Overall, we have a good track record of delivering our major projects over the past decade, on time, on budget, and with competitive capital intensity. We'll learn from our experience at Jansen to improve further. As part of our regular review of how best to prioritize capital for risk and returns, including the sequencing of projects.

總體而言，過去十年來，我們在按時、按預算、以具有競爭力的資本強度交付重大專案方面有著良好的記錄。我們將從在 Jansen 的經驗中學習，以進一步改進。作為我們定期檢視如何最好地優先考慮資本的風險和回報的一部分，包括項目排序。

We've also made the decision to extend the first production for stage 2 by two years. This will free up capital for nearer term, higher returning projects. Now to iron ore. For some years now, we've said that we expect Chinese steel production to plateau and eventually decline over the mid to late 2030s.

我們也決定將第二階段的首次製作延長兩年。這將釋放資金用於近期、回報更高的項目。現在談談鐵礦石。多年來，我們一直表示，預計中國鋼鐵產量將在 2030 年代中後期達到穩定水平並最終下降。

The market is becoming more competitive, and the businesses that thrive will be the ones who can sustain their margins, and that's why we've been focused on improving performance and reducing cost.

市場競爭日益激烈，能夠蓬勃發展的企業才能維持其利潤率，這就是我們一直專注於提高績效和降低成本的原因。

Today, Western Australian iron ore is the lowest cost major producer globally and generates $7 per ton more free cash flow than our closest major competitor. It's the world's leading iron ore business.

如今，西澳大利亞鐵礦石是全球成本最低的主要生產商，每噸產生的自由現金流比我們最接近的主要競爭對手多 7 美元。它是世界領先的鐵礦石企業。

We've now completed studies into growth from 305 million to up to 330 million tons per year, giving us further optionality. We maintain our current firm plans to grow production to 305 million tons per year by the end of financial year 2028. And as we do so, we expect to further improve unit costs to below $17.50 per ton in the medium term. We're also adding a sixth car dumper which will allow us to maintain production through a period of major planned car dumper renewals which begin in 2029.

我們現在已經完成了從每年 3.05 億噸增加到 3.3 億噸的研究，這為我們提供了進一步的選擇。我們維持目前的堅定計劃，到 2028 財年末將產量提高到每年 3.05 億噸。透過這樣做，我們預計中期內單位成本將進一步降低至每噸 17.50 美元以下。我們還將增加第六台翻車機，這將使我們能夠在 2029 年開始的重大翻車機更新計畫期間維持生產。

This investment is expected to generate an IRR of more than 30% and to pay for itself within the first three years from per store. At Escondida, we have continued the planned optimization of our growth program. We've brought forward some low capital intensity initiatives at the Laguna Seca concentrators, with other parts of the planned expansion optimized and sequenced. We've extended the life of the Los Colorados concentrator and optimized the demolition process to access higher grade or sooner.

預計這項投資將產生超過 30% 的內部收益率，每家商店在前三年內就能收回成本。在 Escondida，我們繼續按計劃優化我們的成長計劃。我們在拉古納塞卡選礦廠提出了一些低資本強度的舉措，並對計畫擴建的其他部分進行了優化和排序。我們延長了 Los Colorados 選礦廠的使用壽命，並優化了拆除流程，以便更快獲得更高品位的礦石。

The new concentrator remains the centrepiece of the program with no change in timeline and first permit due to be submitted this financial year. This will add around 400,000 tons of copper over 2027 to 2031, smoothing the production profile.

新的濃縮器仍然是該計劃的核心，時間表沒有變化，第一份許可證將於本財政年度提交。這將使 2027 年至 2031 年間銅產量增加約 40 萬噸，從而平滑生產狀況。

It also improves capital efficiency and de-risks the execution of the program by minimizing activity and people on site at any one time. This is a great example of our ongoing efforts to improve capital productivity through project sequencing and optimization that Vandita referred to.

透過最大限度地減少現場活動和人員數量，它還可以提高資本效率並降低專案執行的風險。正如 Vandita 所提到的，這是我們不斷努力透過專案排序和優化來提高資本生產力的一個很好的例子。

Copper South Australia also provides an incredible opportunity, and ongoing stable operational performance provides a solid platform for growth. Copper South Australia has produced more than 300,000 tons of copper in each of the last two years, and it's improving free cash flow performance, including the contribution of byproducts, will support funding its growth.

南澳大利亞銅業公司也提供了令人難以置信的機會，持續穩定的營運表現為成長提供了堅實的平台。南澳大利亞銅業公司在過去兩年中每年都生產了超過 30 萬噸的銅，其不斷改善的自由現金流表現（包括副產品的貢獻）將為其成長提供資金支持。

Our aspiration to double copper production remains unchanged, but we have optimized the sequencing of our growth program to better stage capital spend and construction and workforce requirements.

我們對銅產量翻倍的願望沒有改變，但我們優化了成長計畫的順序，以更好地安排資本支出、建設和勞動力需求。

We now expect to take a final investment decision on phase 1 of the smelter and refinery expansion in the 2028 financial year. As we assess the opportunity to grow our operations in South Australia, stability and certainty in fiscal policy and regulatory settings, including at the federal level, is required.

我們現在預計將在 2028 財年對冶煉廠和精煉廠擴建的第一階段做出最終投資決定。當我們評估在南澳大利亞州擴大業務的機會時，需要財政政策和監管環境（包括聯邦層級）的穩定性和確定性。

Efficient permitting and approvals are fundamentally important to getting major projects off the ground. To expand our operations, we're going to need more water. We support the Northern Water Project being led by the state government in partnership with the federal government and see this as key to providing a more sustainable and secure water supply.

高效的許可和批准對於重大專案的啟動至關重要。為了擴大我們的業務，我們需要更多的水。我們支持由州政府與聯邦政府合作主導的北方水利項目，並認為這是提供更永續和安全供水的關鍵。

We are pleased to become a baseload customer to help the governments deliver this project which would enable us to grow, refine copper production in South Australia and support economic growth throughout the region.

我們很高興成為基荷客戶，幫助政府完成這個項目，這將使我們能夠發展和提煉南澳大利亞的銅產量，並支持整個地區的經濟成長。

Lastly, on the border of Argentina and Chile, we're making good progress at Vicuna. This is a really exciting opportunity in alliance with Lundin mining, with the potential to be a global top 10 copper producer.

最後，在阿根廷和智利邊境，我們在 Vicuna 取得了良好的進展。這是一個與 Lundin 礦業合作的真正令人興奮的機會，有可能成為全球十大銅生產商之一。

This year, Vi Cunha, which consists of the Filo del Sol and Josemaria deposits, announced a combined resource of 38 million tons of contained copper. Filo del Sol is one of the largest copper deposit discoveries globally in the last 30 years, which could support a potential multi-decade mine life.

今年，由 Filo del Sol 和 Josemaria 礦床組成的 Vi Cunha 銅礦宣布其總銅資源量為 3,800 萬噸。Filo del Sol 是過去 30 年全球發現的最大的銅礦之一，其礦山壽命可能長達數十年。

The Vicuna is on track to complete its integrated technical report for the project by March next year, and this will help inform its future development. Pulling this all together, our growth pipeline, heavily focused on copper and potash supports strong production growth over the next decade.

Vicuna 預計將於明年 3 月完成該專案的綜合技術報告，這將有助於指導其未來發展。綜合起來，我們的成長通路主要集中在銅和鉀肥上，支持未來十年強勁的產量成長。

Assuming these projects proceed, it could deliver average production growth of 2.2% per year over the next decade. This is high quality growth and is set to generate significant value.

假設這些項目順利進行，未來十年平均產量將成長 2.2%。這是高品質的成長，並將產生巨大的價值。

We are investing in highly attractive commodities and in assets with long lives and upside potential. And as we invest now to unlock this growth, we continue to benefit from our baseline of production, which provides strong cash flows and resilience.

我們投資的是極具吸引力的商品以及具有長期壽命和上漲潛力的資產。隨著我們現在投資以釋放這一成長潛力，我們將繼續受益於我們的生產基礎，這為我們提供了強勁的現金流和韌性。

So why BHP? We believe we offer an attractive investment proposition. We provide exposure to the intersection of some of the most significant global trends population growth, urbanization, digitalization, and the energy transition.

那為什麼是必和必拓呢？我們相信我們提供的投資建議很有吸引力。我們專注於一些最重要的全球趨勢的交匯點，即人口成長、城市化、數位化和能源轉型。

We're producing the right commodities from the best assets. We deliver reliably and consistently and have an increasingly attractive pipeline of growth ahead of us, and we continue to refine our capital allocation plans for risk, value, and growth.

我們利用最好的資產生產合適的商品。我們可靠且持續地交付產品，並且擁有越來越有吸引力的成長管道，我們將繼續完善風險、價值和成長的資本配置計劃。

We have refined the sequencing of some of our projects, improved our capital efficiency to reducing our spend over the medium term, and we're putting our very healthy balance sheet to work. We're set up to create value and deliver returns right through the cycle. Thank you.

我們改進了一些項目的排序，提高了資本效率，從而減少了中期支出，並且我們正在利用非常健康的資產負債表來發揮作用。我們的使命是在整個週期中創造價值並提供回報。謝謝。

Thank you for standing by and welcome to BHP's results for the 2025 financial year Investor and analyst Q&A session. Firstly, I advise you that this conference is being recorded today. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加必和必拓 2025 財年業績投資人與分析師問答環節。首先，我要告訴大家，今天的會議正在錄製。（操作員指示）

I would now like to hand the conference over to Mike Henry.

現在我想將會議交給麥克亨利。

Well, welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining us. Let me start with safety. This financial year, we realized year on year improvements in key safety metrics across the group and most importantly, no one lost their life on the job. Over the past five years, our teams have achieved a 63% reduction in high potential injury frequency, and these are those incidents where somebody gets injured, even in a minor way. But where there was fatal potential associated with the with the incident, so down by 63% over the past five years. Now on the operational and financial front -- financial year '25 was a very strong year.

歡迎大家。感謝您加入我們。讓我先從安全說起。在本財政年度，我們實現了整個集團關鍵安全指標的逐年改善，最重要的是，沒有人在工作中喪生。在過去五年中，我們的團隊已將高潛在傷害頻率降低了 63%，這些事故中即使有人受傷，即使是輕微的傷害。但由於事故可能造成致命後果，在過去五年內下降了 63%。現在從營運和財務方面來看——25 財年是業績非常強勁的一年。

The results further reinforce our operational excellence while demonstrating strong, resilient financial performance. And just to rattle off some stats, copper equivalent growth over the year of 4%. Record copper production, greater than 2 million tons, up 28% over the past three years. Record iron ore production at 290 million tons from WAIO.

這項結果進一步鞏固了我們的卓越運營，同時也展現了強勁、有韌性的財務表現。僅舉一些統計數據，銅當量年增了 4%。銅產量創歷史新高，超過 200 萬噸，過去三年增加了 28%。WAIO 鐵礦石產量創歷史新高，達 2.9 億噸。

Strong cost control unit costs down by 4.7% year on year versus inflation of 3.1%. The highest EBITDA margins and returns in the industry attributable profit for the year USD10.2 billion with an EBITDA margin of 53% and a group rosy of 21%.

強而有力的成本控制使單位成本年減 4.7%，而通貨膨脹率為 3.1%。業界最高的EBITDA利潤率和回報率，全年歸屬利潤102億美元，EBITDA利潤率53%，集團獲利21%。

So we see a continuation of the consistency of financial performance we've shown right through the cycle. We continue to grow share shareholder value. We're expecting copper equivalent growth of 2.2% per annum over the 2026 to 2035 period, with higher rates from 2030 onwards of 2.6% through to 2035.

因此，我們看到我們在整個週期中表現出的財務表現的一致性。我們持續提高股東價值。我們預計，2026 年至 2035 年期間銅當量年增率為 2.2%，2030 年至 2035 年期間銅當量年增率為 2.6%。

We declared a final dividend for FY25 or for the final half of $0.60 per share, payout ratio of 60%, and that takes the full year dividend to $0.110 per share or $5.6 billion .

我們宣布 25 財年的末期股息或下半年每股派息 0.60 美元，股息率為 60%，全年股息將達到每股 0.110 美元或 56 億美元。

Operator with that, I'm going to pause and open it up to the lines for questions.

接線生說完這些，我將暫停一下，然後開始回答大家的提問。

Paul Young, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的保羅·楊。

Thanks. Morning, Mike and I hope -- Mike, good to see the dividend bump and also the net debt range increase, which is, I think, sensible. A few questions on the rephasing of projects and caps, particularly desk and a few moving parts here and good to see the optimization of some of those projects post the chilly side visit, last year and also the pushing out of, Los Colorados by 6 to 12 months. Question on specifically on Laguna Seca, [SAMI], deferral, which I know defers about 40,000 tons per day of concentrated capacity. Just curious around how much CapEx does this actually push into next decade and also is deferral by saying specifically about de-risking construction of the larger ENC project.

謝謝。早上好，麥克，我希望——麥克，很高興看到股息增加，淨債務範圍也增加，我認為這是合理的。關於項目和上限的重新安排，特別是辦公桌和這裡的一些活動部件，我有幾個問題，很高興看到去年寒冷地區訪問後其中一些項目得到了優化，並且將洛斯科羅拉多斯的項目推遲了 6 到 12 個月。具體來說，關於拉古納塞卡 [SAMI] 延期的問題，我知道這推遲了每天約 40,000 噸的集中產能。我只是好奇這實際上會將多少資本支出推到下一個十年，並且透過具體說明降低大型 ENC 專案建設的風險來推遲這一進程。

Well, so there's a little bit of all of the above, Paul, and I may turn to that data here in a second, but just at a headline, you may recall from the site visit that I think we were talking about Laguna Seca expansion capital then of about $2 billion to $2.6 billion. Of course, in the intervening period, and this is part of what we spoke about half year at half year results where we've pulled some elements of Laguna Seca forward or the Laguna Seca expansion forward, and that's what's helped to allow us to fill the dip amongst other initiatives. So net CapEx deferral Vandita it's probably $1 billion, $1.2 billion.

好吧，保羅，上面說的這些都有一點，我可能馬上就會談到這些數據，但就標題而言，你可能還記得，在實地考察時，我們當時談論的是拉古納塞卡的擴建資本，約為 20 億至 26 億美元。當然，在此期間，這是我們在半年業績中談到的一部分，我們將拉古納塞卡 (Laguna Seca) 的一些元素或拉古納塞卡 (Laguna Seca) 的擴張向前推進，這有助於我們填補其他舉措中的空缺。因此，Vandita 的淨資本支出遞延可能是 10 億美元或 12 億美元。

We, so, from the perspective of Laguna Seca, Mike, we had given during the site visit a range of $2 billion to $2.6 billion. A portion of that significant portion of that has been deferred into the 30s without changing the growth which is coming from the perspective.

因此，從拉古納塞卡的角度來看，麥克，我們在現場訪問期間給出了 20 億美元到 26 億美元的範圍。其中很大一部分已經推遲到 30 年代，但從角度來看成長並沒有改變。

Yeah, so it's not all of the [2.26] Paul, but a portion of it. But importantly, this, what this signifies is, if you go back a year or two, we were talking a lot about our ability to sequence CapEx, to optimize for returns, and what you're seeing coming through the results both at the half year and even more significantly now is us turning that into practice, right across the portfolio.

是的，所以這不是保羅的全部[2.26]，而是其中的一部分。但重要的是，這意味著，如果你回顧一兩年前，我們談論了很多有關我們對資本支出進行排序、優化回報的能力，而你在半年中看到的結果，甚至更重要的是，現在我們將其轉化為實踐，貫穿整個投資組合。

Thanks, Mark, and then, and questions about the new.

謝謝，馬克，然後是關於新問題的問題。

Yeah, stay risking of ANC if you can.

是的，如果可以的話，繼續冒險使用 ANC。

Yeah, so no change to either the timing, scale, or return, that we had indicated for the new concentrator and the DI, permitting process, we are hoping to launch that in by the end of the financial year.

是的，我們為新選礦廠和 DI 許可流程指出的時間、規模或回報都沒有變化，我們希望在財政年度結束前啟動這些流程。

Okay, great, and then, and Mike, a question on way on the expansion, what should I say the approval of the six card number for a long time coming. I know you've studied this for a very long time, and that actually gives you redundancy, which that's all, also very sensible actually, my, I've got a question specifically about Ministers North, which is a high quality deposit right next to Yandy and, makes a lot of sense from being low capital intensity. How much flexors Ministers North give you? To act on production, like how does it give the ability to flex above 300 million?

好的，太好了，然後，麥克，關於擴展的一個問題，我應該怎麼說，六張卡號的批准已經很久了。我知道您已經研究這個問題很長時間了，這實際上給您帶來了冗餘，僅此而已，實際上也是非常明智的，我有一個關於 Ministers North 的具體問題，它是緊鄰 Yandy 的優質礦床，而且由於資本密集度低，這很有意義。北屈部長給了你多少？對於生產來說，它如何提供超過 3 億的彈性能力？

Well, so the current plans are for us to get to 305 million, all the, let me start with the car, with car number 6. So the primary purpose of card number six isn't resilient. So of course, that's a tangential benefit it gives us.

好吧，我們目前的計劃是達到 3.05 億，讓我先從汽車開始，從 6 號車開始。因此，六號卡的主要用途不是彈性。所以當然，這就是它帶給我們的間接好處。

But the real driver of value there is the fact that in 2029 we start a series of pretty major car dumper refurbishments, and by having a further car dumper, it's going to allow us to avoid the production dips that would otherwise arise.

但真正的價值驅動力在於，我們將在 2029 年開始進行一系列相當重要的翻車機翻新，透過增加一台翻車機，我們可以避免原本會出現的生產下降。

So high returns, short payback, in addition to that, it does give us the resilience that you're speaking to and a bit more sprint capacity. Now current plans see us going to 305 million tons per annum. But as you've seen us do in the past, we are ambitious. We're going to look for opportunities for continuous improvement. And if we can push beyond 305 million on the basis of simple productivity focus, then of course, that's where we'll take things. And then beyond that, we've got the more significant growth options now that we've completed the studies into getting up to 330 million tons per annum but have yet to kind of, we haven't yet baked the capital into our plans to pro progress those projects.

因此，高回報、短回報，除此之外，它確實給了我們您所說的彈性和更多的衝刺能力。現在，我們的計劃是每年生產 3.05 億噸。但正如您過去看到的那樣，我們雄心勃勃。我們將尋找持續改進的機會。如果我們能夠在簡單關註生產力的基礎上突破 3.05 億，那麼我們當然會實現這一目標。除此之外，我們現在有了更重要的成長選擇，因為我們已經完成了每年 3.3 億噸的生產研究，但我們還沒有將資本納入我們的計劃中來推進這些項目。

Ministers not potential FID could be, this financial year call and of course as Minister North is a high quality, above water table, Brockman or deposit close to Andy.

部長們不是潛在的 FID，本財政年度呼籲，當然，正如部長諾斯所說，這是一個高質量的、高於地下水位的、布羅克曼的或靠近安迪的礦床。

Lyndon Fagan, JP Morgan.

林登費根，摩根大通。

Oh, thanks very much. I was hoping to continue the discussion on projects. If I compare slide 18 to, I guess, last year's presentation of the results, there's a couple of things that aren't mentioned. So, you me Pilbara 30 billion tonnes, Mike, you said the studies were completed.

噢，非常感謝。我希望繼續討論項目。如果我將第 18 張投影片與去年的結果簡報進行比較，我想，有幾件事沒有提到。所以，你告訴我皮爾巴拉 300 億噸，麥克，你說研究已經完成了。

Maybe you could shed some light on what those studies revealed. Obviously, not a project out there to 2035 anymore. Clearly still an option but Isn't competing successfully for capital at this stage. And the other one is Oak Dam, which isn't mentioned anymore. Maybe you could give us a bit of color on what's happening there. Thanks.

也許您可以解釋一下這些研究揭示了什麼。顯然，這不再是一個到 2035 年的專案了。顯然這仍然是一種選擇，但現階段還無法成功競爭資本。另一個是 Oak Dam，現在已經不再提及。也許您可以向我們稍微介紹一下那裡發生的事情。謝謝。

Okay, so the in terms of whale going to 330 million tons per annum, the studies have told us that And that from an underlying capital intensity perspective, these are attractive tons. So you kind of on both an outright basis and relative to greenfield projects, some of the other projects that are being built globally, pretty low capital intensity gets 330 million tons, higher capital intensity than the 305 million, but lower than other projects out there. The real question for us is the market outlook, and how.

好的，就鯨魚每年產量 3.3 億噸而言，研究告訴我們，從潛在的資本密集度角度來看，這是很有吸引力的噸位。因此，無論是從直接基礎還是相對於綠地項目來看，全球正在建設的一些其他項目的資本密集度都相當低，達到 3.3 億噸，資本密集度高於 3.05 億噸，但低於其他項目。我們真正的問題是市場前景以及如何。

So, we were clear at the half here that we're starting to see a building case in China for, a plateau for a little bit longer and higher steel exports for longer than we were originally predicting. So that would be supportive of the market.

因此，我們清楚地看到，今年上半年，中國的建築業將進入一個平台期，鋼鐵出口將持續比我們最初預測的更長的時間。因此這將對市場起到支撐作用。

But on the supply side, you've got men do tons coming into the market starting later this year. Further expansions coming from others, and we kind of need to look at the totality of that and say, can the market bear another 20 million, circa 25 million tons per annum, and what would the impact of those tons be in the in the market? And so we're not feeling an urgency around pulling the trigger on that growth from 305 million to 330 million.

但在供應方面，從今年稍後開始，大量男性將進入市場。其他人的進一步擴張，我們需要從總體上看，市場是否還能承受每年另外 2000 萬噸，大約 2500 萬噸，這些噸數對市場會產生什麼影響？因此，我們並不急於實現從 3.05 億到 3.3 億的成長。

We'll continue to sit back, reflect on the market outlook. And compare those opportunities against other opportunities in the in the in the portfolio. But what I want to highlight is the fact that they're not in the chart doesn't mean that they're not sitting there as options for us.

我們將繼續靜觀其變，思考市場前景。並將這些機會與投資組合中的其他機會進行比較。但我想強調的是，它們不在圖表中並不意味著它們不是我們的選擇。

Now, in respect of Oak Dam, we've indicated previously that Oak Daam would be associated with SRE2. So it's that expansion going from, say, circa 500,000 tons per annum copper cathode to upwards of 650,000 tons per annum of copper cathode.

現在，關於 Oak Dam，我們之前已經指出 Oak Daam 將與 SRE2 相關聯。因此，擴張範圍將從每年約 50 萬噸陰極銅增加到每年 65 萬噸以上。

That full project remains our ambition. Current focus is on SRE phase 1. And then SRE phase two would come in early to mid-next decade or so we'd be taking FID on that. But it's not currently outlined in the, on that particular slide.

整個專案仍然是我們的目標。目前重點是 SRE 第 1 階段。然後 SRE 第二階段將在下一個十年的初期到中期左右進行，我們將對此進行 FID。但目前該幻燈片上尚未對此進行概述。

Thanks, Mike. And a follow-up is just on the dividend, obviously a base, but at the same time, you've raised your net debt target. So how do we think about forecasting the dividend in, I guess the current, net debt target range? I if you're below $20 billion, are you considering that there's excess capital to then pay above the minimum dividend?

謝謝，麥克。後續只是關於股息，顯然是一個基礎，但同時，你提高了淨債務目標。那麼，我們如何考慮預測目前的淨債務目標範圍內的股利？如果低於 200 億美元，您是否考慮過還有剩餘資本來支付高於最低股息的費用？

No, that wouldn't be the way to look at the net debt range, and then the, so I, if I start first with the $0.60 and the thinking behind that, but really two things driving that. One is we've had very strong underlying operational performance. Market outlook has been a bit better than people were expecting. In addition to that, we ended up with the year with lower net debt, lower net debt than was originally anticipated thanks to the operational performance and better working capital.

不，這不是看待淨債務範圍的方式，然後，如果我首先從 0.60 美元及其背後的想法開始，但實際上有兩件事推動了這一點。一是我們的基礎營運業績非常強勁。市場前景比人們預期的要好一些。除此之外，由於營運績效和營運資金的改善，我們今年的淨債務低於最初的預期。

And of course, we've recently completed the or we've announced the Caraja, sale of the Brazilian assets, which will bring some more cash in the door, sooner. So we had a higher ability to pay. The other thing that we did reflect on is, if not for the Viunia joint venture, the OZL acquisition and establishment of the Vicuna joint venture, which was about $2 billion $2.1 billion.

當然，我們最近完成了或宣布了出售巴西資產的交易，這將更快地帶來更多現金。因此我們有更高的支付能力。我們確實反思的另一件事是，如果沒有 Viunia 合資企業，OZL 收購並建立 Vicuna 合資企業的成本約為 20 億美元至 21 億美元。

We would have paid or we had the capacity to pay the $0.60 or maybe even a little bit more out of free cash flow. And so in acquiring that long dated option, we sat back and thought about, okay, that's something that we should be thinking about is pulling back from dividends or funding that on the balance sheet.

我們會支付，或者我們有能力用自由現金流支付 0.60 美元甚至更多。因此，在獲得該長期選擇權時，我們坐下來思考，好吧，我們應該考慮從資產負債表上撤回股息或資金。

And given the strong, the better than anticipated cash flows that we were seeing for the reasons I outlined, we elected to go with the $0.60. But this is something we're going to assess on a period on period basis. We have the minimum payout ratio of 50% in there, but we don't, we certainly don't look at things and say, well, as long as we've got headroom on that debt. We would borrow to pay a higher than minimum dividend. We assess it on a six-monthly basis.

鑑於我們之前概述的強勁且優於預期的現金流，我們最終選擇了0.60美元的利率。但我們將根據具體時期進行評估。我們的最低股利支付率為 50%，但我們不會，我們當然不會看著事情說，好吧，只要我們有足夠的債務空間。我們會借錢來支付高於最低標準的股息。我們每六個月進行一次評估。

Robert Stein, Macquarie.

麥格理的羅伯特·斯坦。

Thanks Mike and Vandita. I'm just drilling a little bit more, so just drilling into OD in a little bit more depth. The one year deferral, look, we don't have CapEx yet, but external benchmarks such a Grassic, in in Indonesia.

感謝 Mike 和 Vandita。我只是再鑽一點點，所以只是在 OD 中鑽得更深一點。一年的延期，看，我們還沒有資本支出，但是有印尼的 Grassic 等外部基準。

Around $3 billion to $5 billion to build a new smelter or a new series of smelters in South Australia, in a negative TCRC environment. So with, a potential smelter closing in Queensland, where you're an existing customer, is there a more capital efficient outcome or a more com that may be more commercially complex that carries a lower technical risk and has a higher IRR? That's available to you. That's the first question.

在TCRC不利的環境下，南澳將投入約30億至50億美元建造一座新冶煉廠或一系列新冶煉廠。那麼，如果您是昆士蘭州的現有客戶，而該州的冶煉廠可能關閉，那麼是否存在更資本效率的結果，或者更具商業複雜性、技術風險更低且內部收益率更高的結果？您可以利用這一點。這是第一個問題。

Okay. So, of course, we always consider all options including commercial options available to us. But the And if you never want to rule out any options. We always have to sit back and consider them. But you have to keep in mind that the economics of an expansion of at Olympic Dam will be different than if we were building a greenfield smelter elsewhere.

好的。因此，我們當然會考慮所有可用的選擇，包括商業選擇。但是如果你永遠不想排除任何選擇。我們總是必須坐下來思考這些問題。但你必須記住，奧林匹克壩擴建的經濟效益與我們在其他地方建造新建冶煉廠的經濟效益是不同的。

We're able to capture, for example, transport synergies out of the Oz Minerals acquisition that wouldn't be available to us if we were using one of the other existing smelters. In fact, you could see the transport impost that get bigger.

例如，我們能夠從 Oz Minerals 收購中獲得運輸協同效應，而如果我們使用其他現有的冶煉廠，我們就無法獲得這種效應。事實上，你可以看到運輸稅越來越大。

And we also look at this through the lens of what does the smelter capacity give us the ability to expand to from Olympic Dam as well, ultimately taking into account both SRE1 and SRE2. And then, of course, you need to look at the kind of the metallurgy and the flexibility that we're intending to get through SRE1. That will open up productivity in the underground as well.

我們也從冶煉廠產能如何讓我們能夠從奧林匹克壩擴展到哪裡的角度來看待這個問題，最終同時考慮到 SRE1 和 SRE2。然後，當然，您需要了解我們打算透過 SRE1 實現的冶金類型和靈活性。這也將提高地下的生產力。

So lots of added elements of value that you wouldn't see if you were just looking at straight greenfield smelting capacity that make, at least our current view of the economics of the expansion of copper South Australia attractive.

因此，如果你只專注於直接的綠地冶煉能力，你不會看到很多附加價值元素，至少在我們目前看來，南澳大利亞銅礦擴張的經濟效益具有吸引力。

And if I may add Mike given the IRR question that you asked, Rob, we're very focused and increasingly getting sharper around the project delivery optimization which may include, which includes minimum viable solutions which includes all kinds of vendors and partnerships in Asia, which includes exploring, outsourcing modulization offshore, etc. So the teams are working really hard to ensure that the economics of the project takes into account the sharpness in design in sourcing in where we do the execution strategy, etc., as well.

鑑於你提出的 IRR 問題，我可以補充一下，Mike，Rob，我們非常專注，並且越來越注重專案交付優化，這可能包括最小可行解決方案，其中包括亞洲的各種供應商和合作夥伴關係，包括探索、離岸外包模組化等。因此，團隊正在非常努力地確保專案的經濟性考慮到設計的敏銳性、採購的敏銳性、我們執行執行策略的地方等等。

Okay, so potential partnerships may be available there to lower CapEx intensity, which would be a good move, maybe just on Vicuna--

好的，因此，潛在的合作夥伴關係可能會降低資本支出強度，這將是一個很好的舉措，也許只是在 Vicuna 上——

Just to be clear, that's not what Vandita was speaking about. She was speaking about us, looking further afield in terms of who we might look to bring in to help with the build, design and build of a, of a smelter.

需要明確的是，這不是 Vandita 所說的內容。她正在談論我們，從更遠的角度考慮我們可能會聘請誰來幫助建造、設計和建造冶煉廠。

Okay. So then in terms of Vicuna, the CapEx and targeted spend, is that within the target, or is it excluded, due to accounting classifications and if it is excluded, how much should we think about we need for Vicuna out to FY30? No Escondida data at a 100% sure that's an equity, a lower equity amount.

好的。那麼就 Vicuna 而言，資本支出和目標支出是否在目標範圍內，或者由於會計分類而被排除在外，如果被排除在外，我們應該考慮到 Vicuna 到 2030 財年需要多少資金？沒有 Escondida 數據可以 100% 確定那是股權，股權金額較低。

Yeah. Okay, so in terms of the way that we provide our CapEx guidance, we don't include our non-operated joint ventures of [Argentina] or Vicuna or resolution, for example. Of course, with the Vicuna, we will only be coming up with the technical study in Q1 of calendar year '26.

是的。好的，就我們提供資本支出指導的方式而言，我們不包括非營運的合資企業，例如[阿根廷]或 Vicuna 或解決方案。當然，對於 Vicuna，我們將在 26 年第一季完成技術研究。

And we'll provide more detail at that point in time in terms of how, what the key milestones are going to be, and with more visibility on how we're thinking about potentially sequencing the project. The milestones that we have right now are that I think beyond that are that there's a RI application, kind of timing of mid 2026 as well.

屆時，我們將提供更多細節，說明如何實現關鍵里程碑，以及如何確定專案的潛在排序。我認為，我們現在所擁有的里程碑是，除此之外，還有一個 RI 應用程序，時間大約在 2026 年中期。

And of course, that requires a development concept, behind it. But it, the resource is so big with, that it does provide us with some optionality in terms of how we look to bring it on, including, starting smaller and then growing over time. Of course, there's been a lot of work done there already on the Josemaria side of the, what's not the joint venture.

當然，這背後需要一個發展理念。但是，它的資源如此之大，它確實為我們提供了一些選擇，包括從較小的規模開始，然後隨著時間的推移逐漸擴大。當然，Josemaria 方面已經做了很多工作，這不是合資企業嗎？

Rahul Anand, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的拉胡爾·阿南德。

Mike, Vandita. Good morning. Thank you for the call. A couple of questions from me. Firstly, if I step into WAIO another time, I think we've talked about the mine plan and the potential to expand there.

麥克、範迪塔。早安.謝謝您的來電。我有幾個問題。首先，如果我再次踏入 WAIO，我想我們已經討論過礦山計劃以及在那裡擴張的潛力。

But I wanted to step into, the car dumper six investments. So you've talked about a build profile, I believe, around three years, and obviously this helps you bring a bit of, resilience into the system. However, I just wanted to touch upon, you haven't really increased your guidance beyond the 3 million or 5 million tons per annum at the moment. You've done the study. But you still have a 30% IRR outcome on this new car dumper, which is largely replacement or resilience building. So how do you actually arrive at that 30% IRR is what I'm curious about. So that's the first question that I have. Thanks.

但我想涉足汽車自卸車六項投資。所以，我相信您談到了大約三年的構建概況，顯然這有助於為系統帶來一些彈性。不過，我只是想提一下，目前你們並沒有將指導產量提高到每年 300 萬或 500 萬噸以上。你已經完成了這項研究。但這款新翻車機的 IRR 結果仍然為 30%，這主要是更換或復原力建設。所以我很好奇你是如何真正達到 30% IRR 的。這是我的第一個問題。謝謝。

Okay. It's actually pretty straightforward, Raul, and that it's beyond, from 2029 or starting in 2029, we have a series of major refurbishments of the, and cell replacements in the existing car dumpers.

好的。其實，勞爾，這很簡單，從 2029 年開始，我們將對現有的翻斗車進行一系列重大整修和電池更換。

And given how stretched the system will be and running at 305 million, what's going to happen if we don't have further car capacity in places is that we will take a hit on production as we go through each of those.

考慮到整個系統將面臨多麼嚴峻的挑戰，而汽車產量將達到 3.05 億輛，如果我們在某些地方沒有更多的汽車產能，那麼我們在每個地方的生產都會受到打擊。

And given the relatively high margin nature of the whale business, it doesn't take too many of those hits to pay for the car dumper and more, hence the very short payback period for CD 6.

而且考慮到鯨魚業務相對較高的利潤率，不需要太多的點擊量來支付翻車機等費用，因此 CD 6 的回報期非常短。

Now the reason that you're not reconciling that with 305 million is partly because of just different, it's one partly a level of granularity, but it was also a different time frame that we're talking about between medium term and then you get into the 2030s when many of these are starting in 2029 when these start occurring.

現在，您之所以無法將其與 3.05 億相協調，部分是因為不同，部分是因為粒度級別不同，但這也是我們談論的不同時間範圍，介於中期和 2030 年代之間，其中許多將在 2029 年開始發生。

Now, it will give us added resilience as well. So when we encounter weather events or other minor disruptions in the whale supply chain, this will give us greater ability to sprint and catch up on those lost tons.

現在，它也將增強我們的適應力。因此，當我們遇到天氣事件或鯨魚供應鏈中的其他輕微中斷時，這將使我們更有能力衝刺並彌補那些損失的噸位。

Got it. Okay. Thanks, Mike. And the second one's, on copper SA. Obviously, quite a wide cost guidance range there, and that's probably driven by your byproduct credit, assumptions. But if I look at gold specifically, at 2,900, it's a pretty conservative assumption, and yet you have a pretty good, cost guidance there.

知道了。好的。謝謝，麥克。第二個是關於銅 SA。顯然，那裡的成本指導範圍相當廣泛，這可能是由您的副產品信用假設所驅動的。但如果我具體看一下黃金，2,900 的價格是一個相當保守的假設，但你卻有一個相當不錯的成本指導。

Is there, a real improvement in the underlying performance in that asset? I mean, what's driving the bottom end of that? Cost guidance range if we were to kind of exclude those byproduct credits benefits thanks.

該資產的基本表現是否有真正的改善？我的意思是，是什麼導致了這個結果？如果我們要排除那些副產品信用效益，那麼成本指導範圍是多少？謝謝。

I need to, perhaps you can talk to its fine.

我需要，也許你可以談談，這很好。

Sure. So the, you are absolutely right. Byproducts, is a very big part of corporate IA in the year gone by, $1.6 billion was by-product credit for the asset. So for the guidance that you're referring to, of course, our guidance on volume is 300 million to 340 million there and for the year, as we had power outage so we will have.

當然。所以，你完全正確。副產品是過去一年企業資產評估中非常重要的一部分，資產的副產品信貸額度為 16 億美元。因此，對於您所指的指導，當然，我們對交易量的指導是 3 億到 3.4 億，而對於今年而言，由於我們遇到了停電，所以我們會有。

Normalization of volume to the, next year, taking those two weeks of power outage out, that's one and the team is continuing to do the cost optimization, as well, including, the, including development cost, etc. So overall we think that the range is you're right is higher than the.

明年，產量將恢復正常，取消兩週的停電，這是其中之一，團隊也持續進行成本優化，包括開發成本等。所以總的來說，我們認為範圍是高於你說的。

Other assets which have been the case because of by byproducts can range both in volume as well as in price realization terms but very confident of our ranges both on cost and volume given the ramp up on volume that we expect as one of power outage disruption would have been passed us, which was the case in FY25.

由於副產品而出現的其他資產在數量和價格實現方面都可能有所不同，但鑑於我們預計停電中斷之一將過去，因此我們對成本和數量的範圍都非常有信心，就像 25 財年的情況一樣。

Kaan Peker, RBC.

加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的 Kaan Peker。

Good morning, Mike and Vandita. Just wanted to continue on with the Vicuna questions. I know the recent resource announcement, highlighted the size of your body, but, and they're currently going through trade-off studies. But I just wanted to get an understanding, there was significant high grade zones in both the oxides and sulphides. So can we maybe talk through those trade-offs and, if this can be accelerated, what's the current bottleneck permitting infrastructure? Thanks.

早上好，麥克和範迪塔。只是想繼續討論 Vicuna 的問題。我知道最近的資源公告強調了你的身體尺寸，但是，他們目前正在進行權衡研究。但我只是想了解一下，氧化物和硫化物中都有明顯的高品位區域。那我們是否可以討論一下這些權衡？如果可以加速的話，目前允許基礎設施的瓶頸是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah, so the -- Look, on the trade-offs, there are very real factors around ensuring that we're able to progress this project at a pace that allows us to avail ourselves of the RI bill.

是的，所以——你看，在權衡利弊方面，有很多現實因素可以確保我們能夠以允許我們利用 RI 法案的速度來推進這個項目。

Or the benefits under the REI, legislation. And that then requires you to have both the technical studies behind the project or sufficient technical understanding of the project as well as relevant, permits in place. So that will be one driver. But in addition to that, the, this project is very large, very attractive resource with a lot of potential, but it also has a lot of enabling infrastructure that's going to be, required.

或 REI 立法下的福利。這就要求您既要有專案背後的技術研究，又要對專案有足夠的技術了解，並且要有相關的許可證。所以這將是一個驅動因素。但除此之外，這個計畫規模非常大，資源非常有吸引力，潛力巨大，而且還需要大量必要的支援性基礎設施。

And cross-border interaction between Argentina and Chile. And so it's, it does have some complexities to be navigated as we unlock the full potential there. So, really focus on how can you go about this in the simplest, fastest, manner possible. Which will then allow us to get the operation up and going, get the benefits of the REGI application or REGI legislation even as we, then map out the pathway towards the larger project is probably the best way of thinking about it.

以及阿根廷和智利之間的跨境互動。因此，當我們充分發揮其潛力時，確實存在一些需要解決的複雜問題。因此，真正關注的是如何以最簡單、最快捷的方式完成此事。這將使我們能夠順利開展運營，獲得 REGI 申請或 REGI 立法的好處，同時，規劃通往更大項目的道路可能是思考這個問題的最佳方式。

Vandita, is there anything you wanted to add?

Vandita，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, you covered it, Mike, basically the, as you said, as we have, put in the presentation as well, the first phase would be Josemaria is the way we are thinking about it, and then we go into filo oxide which allow for some pre-stripping, etc. And some bleaching, and from there multiple phases as laid out but early days here, but Josemaria being the starting peter is the way we are thinking about it.

不，你已經講過了，麥克，基本上，正如你所說，正如我們在演示中提到的，第一階段是 Josemaria，這是我們考慮的方式，然後我們進入纖維氧化物，允許進行一些預剝離等。還有一些漂白，然後從那裡開始多個階段，正如所列出的，但這裡還處於早期階段，但 Josemaria 作為起始階段，這是我們考慮的方式。

Yeah, so Josemaria oxides into the Filo del Sol.

是的，所以何塞瑪麗亞氧化物進入了 Filo del Sol。

Yeah, understood. And then, secondly, maybe just, a bit more elaboration on the issues at Jansen. They cited, inflation and design changes as a factor. So which part of the build are you seeing inflation and what designs have changed as far as I understand, the shaft thinking was the riskier part of the development, and that's over.

是的，明白了。其次，也許只是對 Jansen 的問題進行更詳細的闡述。他們指出，通膨和設計變化是一個因素。那麼，據我所知，您在建造的哪個部分看到了通貨膨脹，哪些設計發生了變化，豎井思維是開發過程中風險較高的部分，而這已經結束了。

Well, yeah, indeed. And look, Jansen is frustrating and disappointing. It's not the standard that we hold ourselves to. So no getting around that. Now, what have we seen? We have seen escalation and inflation. And that was actually, it started to pick up post COVID pretty quickly. But, in the early part, as you've seen with BHP right across our business, right, we don't just accept cost pressures. We lean very heavily into offsetting or mitigating those cost pressures, and we've been successful at that time and again.

嗯，確實如此。瞧，詹森令人沮喪又失望。這不是我們要求自己的標準。所以沒有辦法解決這個問題。現在，我們看到了什麼？我們看到了升級和通貨膨脹。事實上，疫情過後，這種現像很快就開始好轉。但在早期，正如您在 BHP 整個業務中看到的那樣，我們不僅僅接受成本壓力。我們非常傾向於抵消或減輕這些成本壓力，並且我們一次又一次地取得了成功。

We were having early success with Jansen as well, but the, those pressures have endured for longer and then more recently, we've had, we, we've run into some productivity headwinds on the, build out of the surface, which occurred is a lot of that work is occurring later in the project.

我們早期與 Jansen 合作也取得了成功，但是這些壓力持續的時間更長，最近，我們在表面建設方面遇到了一些生產力阻力，很多工作都是在專案後期進行的。

We're running into productivity headwinds there and that's been exacerbated by a particularly cold winter this past winter. To the point where even with all of our efforts around getting costs back down again, the pressures have just been greater than that. And so the sensible thing for us to do was to, as soon as we have line of sight on it, bring forward this estimate for higher CapEx.

我們在那裡遇到了生產力阻力，而去年冬天特別寒冷，使情況更加嚴重。即使我們盡一切努力降低成本，但壓力仍然很大。因此，對我們來說，明智的做法是，一旦我們掌握了竅門，就提前估計更高的資本支出。

Now, on design build, I think what you're referring to is, are some of the scope changes. That sort of thing is what usual for a large project like this. So for example, given that you don't have 100% engineering at the time that you take FID as you progress your engineering, we're finding that in some areas we needed more cement or more steel and, or maybe some tweaks to design, but nothing material by way of design changes.

現在，關於設計建造，我認為您所指的是一些範圍的變化。對於像這樣的大型專案來說，這種事情很常見。舉例來說，假設您在進行 FID 時工程進度尚未達到 100%，我們會發現在某些區域我們需要更多的水泥或更多的鋼材，或者可能需要對設計進行一些調整，但設計變更並不需要什麼實質性的改變。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

瑞銀的 Lachlan Shaw。

Yeah, good morning, Mike and Vandita. Thanks very much for your time. A couple from me. Can I just start, just with the, I suppose the trimmed medium term CapEx and just to understand a little more about the rationale there.

是的，早上好，麥克和範迪塔。非常感謝您抽出時間。這是我的一些。我是否可以先從削減中期資本支出開始，以便進一步了解其中的原理。

I mean, is this more about Perhaps keeping a slightly more conservative profile around potential net debt CapEx or is it, more a reflection of just operational requirements, projects taking longer and just optimizing that pathway? Can you help us understand a little more there please? And I'll come back in a second.

我的意思是，這是否更多的是關於在潛在淨債務資本支出方面保持稍微保守的態度，還是更多地反映了營運要求、項目耗時更長以及優化該途徑？您能幫助我們進一步了解嗎？我馬上回來。

Vandita, why didn't you respond to this one?

Vandita，為什麼不回應這個問題？

Yeah, happy to. So, like, from the perspective of the medium term guidance, actually the shift is almost only $2 billion if you look at last year, our FY26, '27 to '29 guidance, and now, FY26 to FY29 guidance that's $11 billion of run rate versus now $42 billion, which is $11 billion plus $11 billion and then $10 billion. The changes there are materially two -three things. One is decarb as you have seen that is materially shifted to 2030, that's around $2 billion odds of reduction, [CD6] has come in, so that's a $1 billion which has come in, and then copper is $2 billion lower within that LSC as we started to discuss in the call earlier. A significant portion of that is deferred without changing anything around the underlying volume, uptake from it. So overall that makes it $2 billion of shift.

是的，很高興。因此，從中期指引的角度來看，如果你看看去年我們的 26 財年、27 至 29 財年的指引，實際上變化幅度幾乎只有 20 億美元，而現在，26 財年到 29 財年的指引是 110 億美元的運行率，而現在是 420 億美元，即 110 億美元，然後是 110 億美元。那裡的變化實質上有兩到三件事。一個是脫碳，如您所見，它已實質轉移到 2030 年，這意味著減少約 20 億美元的成本，[CD6] 已經到位，這意味著減少了 10 億美元，然後銅的價格在 LSC 範圍內降低了 20 億美元，正如我們之前在電話會議上開始討論的那樣。其中很大一部分被推遲，而不會改變底層體積和吸收量。因此總體而言，這是一個價值 20 億美元的轉變。

We are continuing to lean into capital optimization of a very good case there is Escondida which, since the site visit as well, and you know these projects are three years. From two years, three years from FID, so continue to get optimized. Overall not thinking of this as a deferment of cap of growth. In fact, the growth for this decade, next decade on attributable basis is 2.2% for the decade and from 2030 to 2035, 2.6%.

我們將繼續傾向於資本優化，一個很好的案例就是 Escondida，自從進行現場訪問以來，您知道這些項目已經進行了三年。從兩年、三年的FID開始，所以繼續進行最佳化。總體而言，不要認為這是對成長上限的推遲。事實上，本十年和下一個十年的可歸因成長率為 2.2%，而 2030 年至 2035 年的可歸因成長率為 2.6%。

Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Thank you. And my second question is just back to Jason, a little bit. So clearly, the capital estimate change there is as you say like a bit disappointing, but I wanted to just come back to, OpEx, you're still highlighting, 4 unit cost expected around that [105 to 120] ton range when fully ramped up. So, two questions here. Number one, Is that fully ramped up stage 2 or stage 4? That's probably a clarification question. And secondly, do you see a risk around that OpEx number, given the CapEx revision. Thank you.

知道了。好的，這很有幫助。謝謝。我的第二個問題稍微回到傑森的問題上。因此，很明顯，正如您所說，資本估算的變化有點令人失望，但我只想回到營運支出 (OpEx) 問題，您仍然強調，當全面投入生產時，預計 4 個單位的成本將在 [105 至 120] 噸左右。所以，這裡有兩個問題。第一，這是全面啟動的第二階段還是第四階段？這可能是需要澄清的問題。其次，考慮到資本支出的修訂，您是否認為營運支出數字有風險。謝謝。

So the look, we should never be complacent about as we've seen with Jansson CapEx, but it equally applies on OpEx.

因此，我們永遠不應該對 Jansson 的 CapEx 感到自滿，但這同樣適用於 OpEx。

But I hope that you can see in the way that we're operating our other assets that we were, with the disciplines that we've instilled in the team through the BHP operating system coupled with the way that we approach procurement. Has allowed us to maintain a pretty tight degree of control over cost, which gives us a measure of confidence around the [105 to 120] unit cost level for Jansen after we get Jansen in stage 2.

但我希望您能看到我們運作其他資產的方式，以及我們透過必和必拓作業系統向團隊灌輸的紀律以及我們處理採購的方式。這使得我們對成本保持了相當嚴格的控制，這讓我們對 Jansen 進入第二階段後其單位成本水準（[105 到 120]）有信心。

So that's both Jansen stage 1 and stage 2. Ramped up and I would just take the opportunity to highlight that that will be at the low end or towards the low end of the cost curve. And this business, notwithstanding the disappointing increase in CapEx, is going to be such an attractive business long term for the company and for shareholders.

這就是 Jansen 第 1 階段和第 2 階段。加大力度，我只是想藉此機會強調，這將是成本曲線的低端或接近低端。儘管資本支出的成長令人失望，但從長遠來看，這項業務對於公司和股東來說仍將是一項非常有吸引力的業務。

We're looking at circa a billion dollars EBITDA of consensus prices per stage. And so in the future, we've got all four stages ramped up. This business will be highly, high margins, relatively low sustaining capital. So we'll be throwing off quite significant, free cash flow. So we remain very confident in this business and the attractiveness of, a bit and potash going forward.

我們預計每個階段的一致價格 EBITDA 約為 10 億美元。因此，在未來，我們將全面推進這四個階段。這項業務利潤率很高，但維持資本相對較低。因此，我們將會產生相當可觀的自由現金流。因此，我們仍然對這項業務以及鉀肥未來的吸引力充滿信心。

Glyn Lawcock, Barrenjoey.

格林·勞科克，巴倫喬伊。

Good morning, Mike. I just want to get back to [Vicuna] if I could. I mean, you've chosen to give us some insight into the volume production volume out over the next 10 years from [Vicuna]. So you must have a bit of an idea of what it looks like before the technical report comes out. I mean, capital intensity, is there anything you can help us with, given you're already starting to give us the volume outlook?

早上好，麥克。如果可以的話，我只想回到[Vicuna]。我的意思是，你選擇讓我們了解未來 10 年的產量[小羊駝]。因此，在技術報告出來之前，您一定對它的樣子有所了解。我的意思是，就資本密集度而言，鑑於您已經開始向我們提供產量展望，您能為我們做些什麼幫助嗎？

Yeah, not yet, Glyn, but we recognize that there's a pool for, capital intensity, but this is one where we prefer to get our ducks a little bit more lined up before we come to the market with any numbers.

是的，還沒有，格林，但我們認識到，資本密集度存在一個池子，但這是我們更願意在帶著任何數字進入市場之前，把我們的一切都安排得更妥當一些的地方。

Okay. And then, just looking at slide 12, which is your CapEx one. And I appreciate you've seem to have cut it differently from what you've provided at the half year. But if I look back at the half year, it looked like you had $2.5 billion to $3 billion of maintenance dicarbon stripping. But this year's slide now suggests $3 billion for sustaining and a billion of stripping. So we're now up at $4 billion. Is there something I'm missing on a like for like or is it just the way you've cut the slide or has there been a step up in your base spend as well?

好的。然後，只看投影片 12，這是您的資本支出。我很欣賞你對它的看法與半年前提供的看法有所不同。但如果回顧這半年，似乎有 25 億至 30 億美元用於維護二碳剝離。但今年的下滑表明維持成本為 30 億美元，削減成本為 10 億美元。所以現在我們的金額已經達到 40 億美元。我是否忽略了類似的事情，或者只是您削減幻燈片的方式，或者您的基本支出是否也有所增加？

Vandita.

凡迪塔。

I'm happy to, there, Glyn, so you will remember the way we used to cut the classification. We used to talk about improvement as well, which has some of the sustaining costs to clean this up, we have, done the new classification which doesn't change the numbers actually.

我很高興，格林，這樣你就會記得我們用來分類的方式。我們過去也談論過改進，這需要一些維持成本來清理這個問題，我們已經做了新的分類，但實際上並沒有改變數字。

So the baseline sustaining think of it as $3 billion deferred stripping on. Average of a billion odd and then we have this lumpy projects which come up which are non-recurring sustaining [Vicuna], for example, we have quite a bit of fleet replacement coming up both in Vicuna and Escondida over the next two years so you see that non-recurring go up and then stabilize to a much lower number later in the decade. That would include. Also Western ridge, for example, for we will include ministers not as a sustaining, but these are lumpy one off projects but to give clarity we have bucketed it in a way so that it becomes easier and growth, as you can see, remains steady at all $4 billion the way to 2030 and.

因此，基準維持認為這是 30 億美元的延期剝離。平均十億多一點，然後我們有一些不定期的項目，這些項目都是非經常性維持性的[Vicuna]，例如，未來兩年我們在 Vicuna 和 Escondida 都會有大量的船隊更換，所以你會看到非經常性支出會上升，然後在十年後期穩定到一個較低的數字。其中包括。再以西部山脊為例，我們將把部長們納入其中，而不是作為維持性的，這些都是一次性的大項目，但為了清楚起見，我們以某種方式對其進行了分類，以便更容易和增長，正如你所看到的，到 2030 年，將保持穩定在 40 億美元。

In -- within growth, the portion of copper continues to increase to 70% number.

在增長中，銅的比例繼續增加到70％。

Baden Moore, CLSA.

巴登·摩爾（Baden Moore），里昂證券。

Thank you, everyone. I just had a question around, how we think about capital intensity for the business and free cash flows. As I understand, the Kuna CapEx comes, outside of the $10 billion average spend rate. Now you've recut the capital structure, I guess, in terms of at least the narrative.

謝謝大家。我只是想問一個問題，我們如何看待企業的資本密集度和自由現金流。據我了解，庫納資本支出超出了 100 億美元的平均支出率。我想，現在您已經重新調整了資本結構，至少從敘述的角度來說。

How do I think about sort of medium term? Is it $10 billion average spend, into your consolidated assets and then what does this new Gearing metric to spend as a run rate, not necessarily that you would spend it, but what's the run rate you think your new capital structure allows you to spend into those sort of equity accounted assets as well.

我如何看待中期問題？平均支出是 100 億美元嗎？投入到您的合併資產中，然後這個新的槓桿指標作為運行率是多少？不一定是您會花掉它，而是您認為新的資本結構允許您投入這些權益會計資產的運作率是多少。

So we, look, we don't look at this primarily through a gearing, lens and bendy. I'll turn to you for comment in just a second. But what we can see in our medium-term guidance and the way that we've spoken about Vicuna resolution as well is that we expect to be able to spend the kind of $10 billion for the outer two years in medium guidance per annum. Within the envelope of what we're currently forecasting by way of free cash or available cash flow over that period of time and our net debt range.

因此，我們主要不是透過傳動裝置、鏡頭和彎曲來觀察這個問題。我馬上就會向您徵求意見。但是，從我們的中期指導以及我們談論 Vicuna 解決方案的方式中可以看出，我們預計在未來兩年內每年能夠花費 100 億美元的中期指導金額。在我們目前預測的該期間內的自由現金或可用現金流以及我們的淨債務範圍之內。

And we're expecting Vicuna to be coming in over that period and possibly a resolution as well. Now, let's say in a hypothetical scenario we have growth options beyond and where they're [not OGVs], they're more organic options and of course those would come into our reported guidance for CapEx as well.

我們預計 Vicuna 將在此期間到來，並且可能會有一個解決方案。現在，假設在一個假設情境中，我們有超越的成長選擇，它們（不是 OGV），它們是更有機的選擇，當然這些也會納入我們報告的資本支出指導中。

So there's a little bit of a I don't know, not an artificial, but an optical factor at play here.

所以這裡有一點我不知道的，不是人為的，而是光學因素在運作。

But Vandita, do you want to comment further?

但是 Vandita，你想進一步評論嗎？

Yeah. Sure, so the way to think about this is we follow the accounting principles so that it remains aligned with what we report. Everything which is equity accounted, as we only get through investing, line in the cash flow. We do not show all the assets and profits in our numbers and hence CapEx will come through investing line.

是的。當然，所以我們考慮這個問題的方式是遵循會計原則，以便它與我們的報告保持一致。由於我們只能透過投資獲得所有權益會計，因此它們都計入現金流量。我們不會在數字中顯示所有資產和利潤，因此資本支出將透過投資線實現。

And if for example in [Anammina's] case it is self-funding, it does not show up in our numbers at all so it remains all equity accounted numbers come through the investing line. Everything else comes through our, for example, BMA, which is proportionately consolidated, shows our portion of all the financials, including the CapEx as needed.

以 [Anammina] 為例，如果該公司是自籌資金，那麼它根本不會出現在我們的數字中，因此所有權益會計數字仍然來自投資線。其他一切都透過我們的 BMA 來體現，例如，BMA 是按比例合併的，顯示了我們在所有財務中的份額，包括所需的資本支出。

Okay, thanks.

好的，謝謝。

Lachlan Shaw, UBS.

瑞銀的 Lachlan Shaw。

Thanks very much for taking my follow-up. I just wanted to ask, on copper South Australia, so obviously, you've got phase 1, in the slide. For phase 2 and really expansion of that southern mining area, can you give us any sense of the thinking around whether or not that would be the same sort of mining methodology as today or whether you'd look at alternate methodologies such as block caves. Thank you.

非常感謝您接受我的跟進。我只是想問一下，關於南澳大利亞的銅，很明顯，在幻燈片中你已經進入了第一階段。對於第二階段以及南部礦區的真正擴建，您能否告訴我們您的想法，這是否與今天的採礦方法相同，或者您是否會考慮諸如塊狀洞穴開採等替代方法。謝謝。

No, we're definitely, we, we're definitely looking at alternative methodologies, so more bulk mining, methods -- as, and that, that's for ongoing expansion kind of into SRE2.

不，我們肯定，我們肯定在尋找替代方法，因此更多的批量挖掘方法 - 那是為了持續擴展到 SRE2。

Rob Stein, Macquarie.

麥格理銀行的羅布‧斯坦 (Rob Stein)。

Thanks for the follow-up. Probably the forgotten, asset and all of this is BMA and coal in the sense that, yeah, we're in a bit of a low stage of the cycle, the returns on capital employed on slide 33, it's your worst performing asset.

感謝您的跟進。可能被遺忘的資產，所有這些都是 BMA 和煤炭，從某種意義上說，是的，我們正處於週期的低谷階段，幻燈片 33 上的資本回報率，這是表現最差的資產。

How are you thinking through the future of that asset, noting you've acknowledged that the decarbonization journey is complex and is tricky in terms of your own decarbonization efforts. But how do you think about the assets placed in the portfolio looking forward, noting the returns and the sort of limited optionality it might provide in the future given the tax, taxation regime in Queensland.

您如何看待該資產的未來，您承認脫碳之旅很複雜，而且就您自己的脫碳努力而言很棘手。但是，考慮到昆士蘭州的稅收制度，您如何看待未來投資組合中的資產，並考慮其未來可能提供的回報和有限的選擇性。

So look, in terms of our outlook for the for the market and for the sector, it is really consistent with what we've been saying for the last few years, which is that as steelmakers seek to reduce the emissions intensity of blast furnace steel production, they're going to need better quality inputs. And so the premium quality Coca-Cola that we've now focused our portfolio on should stand to see some margin upside or as premiums kick in.

因此，就我們對市場和產業的展望而言，這與我們過去幾年所說的是一致的，即隨著鋼鐵製造商尋求降低高爐煉鋼的排放強度，他們將需要更高品質的投入。因此，我們現在重點關注的優質可口可樂的利潤率應該會上升，或者溢價也會隨之增加。

Of course, the benefit that we get through those premiums has been eroded through the new royalty regime in Queensland and last year we're seeing a 60% over 67% effective tax rate on that business through the change in the royalty regime up there, which makes it a much more difficult business to run.

當然，我們透過這些保費獲得的利益已經被昆士蘭州新的特許權使用費制度所侵蝕，去年，由於特許權使用費制度的變化，我們看到該業務的實際稅率上升到 60% 至 67%，這使該業務的經營變得更加困難。

So in periods of low prices like we see currently, we have to be even sharper about how we go about assessing on a pit by pit basis which areas of the of the business are economic and which aren't, and then take quick action when they aren't.

因此，在當前這種低價時期，我們必須更敏銳地評估每個礦井的哪些業務領域具有經濟效益，哪些不具有經濟效益，然後在不具有經濟效益時迅速採取行動。

So that will help us to improve returns at the low point in the cycle. And then, the upside that we'll see in that business will be through productivity. So you see our productivity-driven production growth and medium-term guidance, which also brings unit costs down. If you couple that then with some price upside for the reasons I've noted, then we could get that business back.

這將有助於我們在周期的低點提高回報。然後，我們將看到該業務的優勢將來自於生產力的提高。因此，您可以看到我們以生產力為驅動的生產成長和中期指導，這也降低了單位成本。如果再加上我之前提到的原因，再加上價格上漲，我們就可以恢復這項業務。

The expectation is that business will be back into a shape where it's generating healthier return on capital employed. But there is no intent for us to invest more growth capital in that business. Given the unattractiveness now of that, given the higher royalties, and we'll instead prioritize growth capital into other parts of the portfolio.

我們預期企業將恢復到能夠產生更健康的資本報酬率的狀態。但我們無意在該業務上投入更多的成長資本。鑑於目前這種做法的吸引力不大，且特許權使用費較高，我們將優先將成長資本投入投資組合的其他部分。

And so is there any further high grading in that portfolio that you can do or is it pretty much shrunk to the minimum viable products from a BHP standpoint?

那麼，從必和必拓的角度來看，該投資組合中是否還有可以進一步提高評級的產品？或者，它是否已經縮減為最低限度可行產品？

No, so in terms of big ticket high rating, we've gotten -- we have the portfolio now that we want. There will be the kind of the optimization that I mentioned, which is a low point in the cycle. If you've got some pits that maybe are a bit further away from your wash plant or a bit deeper or higher strip ratio, then when they start to turn margin negative, you would look to pull back as quickly as possible on production from those areas. But it, but in terms of kind of asset portfolio, we now have the portfolio that we were seeking when we embarked upon our portfolio rationalization.

不，就高評級的大額票房而言，我們已經得到了——我們現在有了我們想要的投資組合。會出現我提到的那種最佳化，這是週期中的低點。如果您的某些礦坑可能距離洗礦廠稍遠、稍深或剝採比較高，那麼當它們的利潤開始變為負值時，您會希望盡快從這些區域撤出產量。但就資產組合類型而言，我們現在擁有了我們在開始投資組合合理化時所尋求的投資組合。

Okay, well, look, thank you everybody for joining us. I hope you can see that it's a business that's performing well operationally and financially. Safety on track, never complacent day when it comes to safety, but was very pleased to report that the improvement that we saw across a range of safety metrics over the course of the past year. Of course records across a number of assets on the production front, continued sharp focus on cost control.

好的，謝謝大家的參與。我希望您能看到這是一家在營運和財務上表現良好的企業。安全工作進展順利，在安全方面我們從未自滿過，但我們很高興地報告，在過去的一年裡，我們看到一系列安全指標都有所改善。當然，在生產方面，多項資產的記錄仍然高度重視成本控制。

On Jansen, but a disappointing overrun on cost at Jansen, but this is not reflective of the overall BHP performance on projects. We have a much better track record than that, and we hold ourselves to a stand that higher standard. And we'll be taking the lessons coming out of out of Jansen applying it across the rest of the portfolio to ensure that we achieve a level of project excellence commensurate with the level of operational excellence that you've seen us achieve in in recent years.

對 Jansen 來說，Jansen 的成本超支令人失望，但這並不能反映出 BHP 在專案上的整體表現。我們有著比這更好的業績記錄，並且我們以更高的標準要求自己。我們將吸取 Jansen 的經驗教訓並將其應用於投資組合的其他部分，以確保我們達到的專案卓越水平與您近年來看到的我們所達到的營運卓越水平相稱。

Thank you again for joining, and we'll look forward to further conversations in the weeks ahead.

再次感謝您的加入，我們期待在未來幾週內進行進一步的對話。

That concludes today's meeting. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。