Bread Financial Holdings Inc (BFH) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Bread Financial's third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Kevin, and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions)

早安，歡迎參加 Bread Financial 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫凱文，今天我要負責協調您的通話。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Brian Vereb, Head of Investor Relations for Bread Financial. The floor is yours.

現在我很榮幸地向大家介紹 Bread Financial 投資人關係主管 Brian Vereb 先生。現在輪到你發言了。

Thank you. Copies of the slides we will be reviewing and the earnings release can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at breadfinancial.com. On the call today, we have Ralph Andretta, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Perry Beberman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。我們將要審查的幻燈片和獲利報告副本可在我們網站 breadfinancial.com 的投資者關係部分找到。今天參加電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Ralph Andretta 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Perry Beberman。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the comments made on today's call and some of the responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and are subject to the risks and uncertainties described in the company's earnings release and other filings with the SEC.

在開始之前，我想提醒各位，今天電話會議上的一些評論以及對你們提問的一些回答可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期和假設，並受公司獲利報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述的風險和不確定性的影響。

Also on today's call, our speakers will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures which we believe will provide useful information for investors. Reconciliation of those measures to GAAP are included in our quarterly earnings materials posted on our Investor Relations website.

在今天的電話會議上，我們的發言人還將提及一些非GAAP財務指標，我們認為這些指標將為投資者提供有用的信息。這些指標與 GAAP 的核對情況已包含在我們投資者關係網站上發布的季度收益資料中。

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ralph Andretta.

接下來，我將把電話交給拉爾夫·安德雷塔。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning to everyone joining the call. Today, Bread Financial reported strong third quarter 2025 results. we delivered net income of $188 million, adjusted net income and earnings per diluted share of $191 million and $4.02, excluding the $3 million post-tax impact from expenses related to repurchase debt in the quarter. Our tangible book value per common share grew by 19% year-over-year to $56.36 and our return on average tangible common equity was 28.6% for the quarter.

謝謝你，布萊恩，也祝所有參加電話會議的朋友們早安。今天，Bread Financial公佈了強勁的2025年第三季業績。我們實現了1.88億美元的淨利潤，調整後淨利潤和稀釋後每股收益分別為1.91億美元和4.02美元，其中不包括本季與回購債務相關的300萬美元稅後支出。本季度，我們的每股普通股有形帳面價值年增 19% 至 56.36 美元，平均有形普通股權益報酬率為 28.6%。

Consumer Financial health remained resilient in the third quarter as evidenced by strong credit sales a higher payment rate as well as lower delinquencies and losses. Credit sales increased 5% year-over-year in the face of ongoing inflationary concerns, a slowing yet stable job market and continuing weak consumer sentiment. The improvement was driven by strong back-to-school shopping early in the quarter with notable improvement in apparel and beauty. Additionally, purchase frequency increase and spending trends improved across all consumer segments.

第三季消費者金融狀況依然穩健，強勁的信貸銷售、較高的支付率以及較低的違約率和損失都證明了這一點。儘管面臨持續的通膨擔憂、就業市場放緩但維持穩定以及消費者信心持續疲軟等問題，信貸銷售額仍年增 5%。本季初強勁的返校購物推動了銷售成長，其中服裝和美容產品銷售顯著提升。此外，所有消費族群的購買頻率和消費趨勢均有所提高。

Amidst these favorable results, we continue to monitor changes in monetary and fiscal policies, including tariff and trade policies and their potential impacts on consumer spending and employment. Overall, a positive year-over-year credit sales trends and gradual improvement in our credit metrics gives us confidence in our outlook as we enter the final quarter of the year.

儘管取得了這些有利成果，我們仍將繼續關注貨幣和財政政策的變化，包括關稅和貿易政策及其對消費者支出和就業的潛在影響。總體而言，同比信貸銷售的積極趨勢以及信貸指標的逐步改善，使我們對進入今年最後一個季度的前景充滿信心。

Given current credit trends and slightly better-than-expected performance of our net loss rate year-to-date, we expect that we will be at the low end of our full year outlook range of 7.8% to 7.9%. While the net loss rate remains elevated compared to historic levels, the improving loss rate and delinquency rate trends are encouraging. As I mentioned earlier, we will continue to closely monitor consumer health purchasing and payment patterns and adjust our credit strategies accordingly to achieve industry-leading risk-adjusted returns.

鑑於目前的信貸趨勢以及年初至今淨損失率略優於預期的表現，我們預計全年淨損失率將處於 7.8% 至 7.9% 的預期範圍的下限。雖然淨損失率仍高於歷史水平，但損失率和違約率的改善趨勢令人鼓舞。正如我之前提到的，我們將繼續密切關註消費者的健康產品購買和支付模式，並相應地調整我們的信貸策略，以實現行業領先的風險調整後收益。

More broadly, we have remained consistent in our full year financial outlook as we continue to navigate market volatility. Our expectations around the health of the consumer have not materially changed. We have maintained our long-term focus on responsible growth and executing our business strategy. Given the actions we have taken over the past five-plus years, we are well positioned to achieve our long-term financial targets and anticipate increasing shareholder value over time.

更廣泛地說，儘管我們繼續應對市場波動，但我們全年的財務展望仍然保持一致。我們對消費者健康的預期並沒有實質改變。我們始終堅持以負責任的成長為長期目標，並執行我們的業務策略。鑑於我們過去五年多來採取的行動，我們完全有能力實現我們的長期財務目標，並預計隨著時間的推移，股東價值將不斷增長。

Our focus on expense discipline and operational excellence continues to produce desired results as adjusted total noninterest expense was down 1% year over year despite continued technology-related investments, inflation and wage pressures. We will continue to invest in technology modernization, digital advancement, artificial intelligence solutions and product innovation that will drive future growth and efficiencies. Considering the progress we have made, we are confident in our ability to achieve full year positive operating leverage, excluding the impacts of repurchase debt and any portfolio sale gains.

儘管持續進行技術相關投資，並面臨通貨膨脹和工資壓力，但我們對成本控制和卓越營運的重視繼續取得預期成果，經調整後的非利息總支出同比下降了 1%。我們將繼續投資於技術現代化、數位化進步、人工智慧解決方案和產品創新，以推動未來的成長和效率提升。考慮到我們所取得的進展，我們有信心實現全年正向經營槓桿，不包括回購債務和任何投資組合出售收益的影響。

With our CET1 ratio at the top of our targeted range of 13% to 14%, we initiated the $200 million share repurchase program that the Board approved in August, repurchasing $60 million during September and into October. This morning, we announced a Board-approved $200 million increase to our share repurchase authorization.

由於我們的 CET1 比率達到了 13% 至 14% 的目標範圍的上限，我們啟動了董事會在 8 月份批准的 2 億美元股票回購計劃，並在 9 月和 10 月份回購了 6000 萬美元。今天上午，我們宣布董事會批准將股票回購授權增加 2 億美元。

We also announced a 10% increase to our quarterly cash dividend, which is now $0.23 per common share with the goal of increasing our dividend annually as we see growth in our book value. These actions, along with our proven strong capital and cash flow generation underscore our ability to execute all of our capital and growth priorities concurrently, providing a solid runway to deliver additional value to our shareholders.

我們也宣布將季度現金股利提高 10%，目前為每股普通股 0.23 美元，目標是隨著帳面價值的成長，逐年提高股利。這些舉措，加上我們強大的資本和現金流產生能力，凸顯了我們同時執行所有資本和成長優先事項的能力，為我們的股東創造更多價值提供了堅實的基礎。

Moving to our new business activity. During the quarter, we expanded our home vertical foothold by signing new brand partners, including Bed Bath & Beyond, an e-commerce retailer with ownership interest in various retail brands; Furniture First, a national cooperative buying group that serves hundreds of independent home furnishings and bed retailers across the US; and Raymour & Flanigan, the largest furniture and mattress retailer in the Northeast and the seventh largest nationwide. These new signings provide expanded opportunity for profitable growth going forward.

轉向我們的新業務活動。本季度，我們透過簽約新的品牌合作夥伴，擴大了我們在家居垂直領域的市場份額，其中包括：Bed Bath & Beyond，一家擁有多家零售品牌所有權的電子商務零售商；Furniture First，一家為全美數百家獨立家居用品和床具零售商提供服務的全國性合作採購集團；以及 Raymour & Flanigan，東北地區最大的家具和大床墊零售商，也是全美大床墊和第七大床墊，也是全美大床墊這些新簽約為未來獲利成長提供了更多機會。

We will continue to leverage our full product suite and omnichannel customer experience to extend category leadership in existing industry verticals, while expanding into new verticals. Strategically, our vertical and product expansion efforts continue to have positive impact on both risk management and income diversification across our portfolio.

我們將繼續利用我們完整的產品組合和全通路客戶體驗，鞏固我們在現有產業垂直領域的領先地位，同時拓展到新的垂直領域。從策略角度來看，我們的垂直領域和產品擴張努力繼續對我們投資組合的風險管理和收入多元化產生積極影響。

Finally, as released last week, we are pleased to have earned a credit ratings upgrade and positive outlook for Moody's recognizing the progress we have made in strengthening our financial resilience and enterprise risk management framework. In summary, we are pleased with our third quarter results. Our financial performance reflects steady progress in executing our strategic priorities and our ongoing commitment to return value to shareholders, including in the form of increased dividends and share repurchases.

最後，正如上周公布的那樣，我們很高興穆迪提高了我們的信用評級，並給予了積極的展望，這認可了我們在加強財務韌性和企業風險管理框架方面取得的進展。總而言之，我們對第三季的業績感到滿意。我們的財務表現反映了我們在執行策略重點方面取得的穩定進展，以及我們持續致力於為股東創造價值的承諾，包括增加股利和回購股票。

Now I will pass it over to Perry to review the financials in more detail.

現在我將把這項工作交給佩里，讓他更詳細地審查財務數據。

Thanks, Ralph. Slide 3 highlights our third quarter performance. During the quarter, credit sales of $6.8 billion increased 5% year over year even with the anniversary of the Saks portfolio addition in late August 2024. The increase was driven by new partner growth and higher general-purpose spending. As Ralph mentioned, we saw strong back-to-school shopping in the early part of the quarter with sales growth moderating in the latter part of the quarter.

謝謝你，拉爾夫。幻燈片 3 重點介紹了我們第三季的業績。本季信貸銷售額為 68 億美元，年增 5%，儘管 2024 年 8 月下旬是 Saks 投資組合加入週年紀念日。成長主要由新合作夥伴的增加和一般性支出的增加所驅動。正如拉爾夫所提到的那樣，我們在本季度初看到了強勁的返校購物熱潮，但在本季後期銷售成長有所放緩。

Average loans of $17.6 billion decreased 1% year over year. Higher payment rates, coupled with the ongoing effect of elevated gross credit losses, pressured loan growth. In line with lower average loans, revenue was down 1% year over year to $971 million. Our revenue growth was also impacted by lower build late fees resulting from lower delinquencies, higher retailer share arrangements, RSA with partial offsets, including lower interest expense and our ongoing implementation of pricing changes and paper statement fees.

平均貸款額為 176 億美元，年減 1%。較高的還款率，加上持續高企的信貸損失總額的影響，給貸款成長帶來了壓力。由於平均貸款額下降，營收年減 1% 至 9.71 億美元。我們的收入成長也受到以下因素的影響：由於拖欠率降低，導致建設滯納金減少；零售商分成協議提高；部分抵銷的零售分成協議；利息支出降低；以及我們持續實施價格調整和紙本帳單費用。

Total noninterest expenses decreased $98 million attributed to the prior year impact from repurchase debt. Excluding the impacts from our repurchase debt, adjusted total noninterest expenses decreased $5 million or 1% driven by our continued operational excellence efforts. Income from continuing operations increased $185 million, reflecting the prior year post-tax impact from a repurchase debt of $91 million and the current year impact from a lower provision for credit losses, and a $38 million favorable discrete tax item. Excluding the impacts from our repurchase debt, adjusted income from continuing operations increased $97 million or 104%.

非利息支出總額減少了 9,800 萬美元，這歸因於上一年回購債務的影響。剔除回購債務的影響，經調整後的非利息支出總額減少了 500 萬美元，降幅為 1%，這得益於我們持續的卓越營運努力。持續經營收入增加 1.85 億美元，反映了上一年回購債務 9,100 萬美元的稅後影響，以及本年度信貸損失準備金減少和 3,800 萬美元有利的一次性稅收項目的影響。剔除回購債務的影響，持續經營調整後收入增加了 9,700 萬美元，增幅達 104%。

Looking at the financials in more detail on slide 4. Total net interest income for the quarter decreased 1% year over year, resulting from a combination of a decrease in billed late fees due to lower delinquencies as well as a gradual shift in risk and product mix leading to a declining proportion of private label accounts, which generally have higher interest rates and more frequently fee assessments. These headwinds were partially offset by lower interest expense the gradual build of pricing changes and an improvement in reversal of interest and fees related to improving gross credit losses. Noninterest income was $7 million lower year over year, driven by higher retailer share arrangements, partially offset by paper statement fees.

請查看第 4 張投影片，詳細了解財務數據。本季淨利息收入總額年減 1%，原因是拖欠率降低導致滯納金帳單減少，以及風險和產品組合逐漸發生變化，導致自有品牌帳戶比例下降，而自有品牌帳戶通常利率較高，費用評估也更頻繁。這些不利因素部分被較低的利息支出、價格變化的逐步累積以及與信貸總損失改善相關的利息和費用的回撥所抵消。非利息收入年減 700 萬美元，主因是零售商分成安排增加，部分被紙本帳單費用抵銷。

Looking at the total noninterest expense variances, which can be seen on slide 11 in the appendix, employee compensation and benefits costs decreased $6 million as a result of our continued focus on operational excellence. Card and processing expenses increased $4 million, primarily due to higher network fees driven by our gradual shift in product mix. Other expenses decreased $93 million, primarily due to the prior year impact of repurchase debt.

從附錄第 11 頁的投影片可以看出，非利息支出總差異表明，由於我們持續專注於卓越運營，員工薪資和福利成本減少了 600 萬美元。卡片和處理費用增加了 400 萬美元，主要是由於我們產品組合的逐步轉變導致網路費用上漲。其他支出減少了 9,300 萬美元，主要是由於上一年回購債務的影響。

Looking ahead, we anticipate a typical seasonal increase in fourth quarter expenses sequentially from the adjusted third quarter expenses due to increased holiday-driven transaction volume higher planned marketing expenses and higher expected employee compensation and benefits costs. Adjusted pretax pre-provision earnings or adjusted PPNR, which excludes gains on portfolio sales and impacts from repurchase debt was nearly flat year-over-year.

展望未來，我們預計第四季度支出將比調整後的第三季度支出出現典型的季節性增長，這是由於假日期間交易量增加、計劃營銷支出增加以及預期員工薪酬和福利成本增加所致。經調整的稅前撥備前收益或經調整的 PPNR（不包括投資組合出售收益和回購債務的影響）與去年同期基本持平。

Turning to slide 5. Both loan yield of 27.0% and net interest margin of 18.8% were higher sequentially following seasonal trends. Net interest margin was flat year over year. A number of variables continue to impact our NIM, including the drivers I noted on the prior slide, as well an elevated cash position and changes in Fed rates. Given continued improvement in payment rate and delinquency rate trends, we anticipate lower billed late fees for the remainder of the year to pressure NIM, while the gradual benefit from pricing changes will continue to be realized over time.

翻到第5張投影片。貸款收益率（27.0%）和淨利差（18.8%）均較季節趨勢較上季上升。淨利差與上年持平。許多變數持續影響我們的淨利差，包括我在上一張投影片中提到的驅動因素，以及較高的現金部位和聯準會利率的變化。鑑於付款率和拖欠率趨勢持續改善，我們預計今年剩餘時間內的滯納金帳單金額將降低，從而對淨息差構成壓力，而價格變化帶來的逐步收益將隨著時間的推移繼續實現。

On the funding side, we are seeing cost decrease as savings accounts and new term CD rates decline. During the quarter, we completed a $31 million tender offer for our senior and subordinated notes using excess cash on hand to reduce higher cost debt, which also improved our cost of funds. Direct-to-consumer deposit growth remained steady year-over-year, ending the quarter with $8.2 billion in direct-to-consumer deposits, further improving our funding mix Direct-to-consumer deposits accounted for 47% of our average funding up from 41% a year ago.

在資金方面，隨著儲蓄帳戶和新定期存款利率的下降，我們看到成本也在下降。本季度，我們利用手頭上多餘的現金完成了 3,100 萬美元的優先和次級債券要約收購，以減少高成本債務，這也改善了我們的資金成本。直接面向消費者的存款成長保持穩定，本季末直接面向消費者的存款達到 82 億美元，進一步改善了我們的資金結構。直接面向消費者的存款占我們平均資金的 47%，高於一年前的 41%。

Moving to slide 6. Optimizing our funding, capital, and liquidity levels continues to be a key strategic initiative. As history shows, we will be opportunistic in evaluating and executing plans to continue to enhance our structure. Along those lines, as Ralph mentioned, we are proud to have earned a credit ratings upgrade from Moody's to Ba2 while maintaining a positive outlook. This was a result of the actions we have taken to improve our capital and funding profiles along with our improved enterprise risk management framework and strong financial performance.

切換到第6張投影片。優化我們的資金、資本和流動性水準仍然是一項關鍵的策略舉措。歷史表明，我們將抓住機會評估和執行計劃，以繼續加強我們的組織結構。正如拉爾夫所提到的那樣，我們很自豪地獲得了穆迪的信用評級提升至 Ba2，同時保持了積極的展望。這是我們採取措施改善資本和融資狀況、改善企業風險管理框架以及取得強勁財務業績的結果。

Our liquidity position remains strong. Total liquid assets and undrawn credit facilities were $7.8 billion at the end of the quarter, representing 36% of total assets. At quarter end, deposits comprise 77% of our total funding with the majority being direct-to-consumer deposits.

我們的流動性狀況依然強勁。截至季末，流動資產和未提取信貸額度總額為 78 億美元，佔總資產的 36%。截至季末，存款占我們總資金的 77%，其中大部分是直接面向消費者的存款。

Shifting to capital. We ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 14.0%, up 100 basis points sequentially and up 70 basis points compared to last year. As you can see in the upper right table, our CET1 ratio has benefited by 260 basis points from core earnings. Common dividends and the repurchases of $234 million in common shares over the past year impacted our capital ratios by 146 basis points. Additionally, the last CECL phase-in adjustment occurred in the first quarter of 2025 and resulting in a 73 basis point reduction to our ratios and the impact from repurchase debt accounted for approximately 30 basis points of adjustment to CET1 since the third quarter of 2024.

轉向資本。本季末，我們的一級資本充足率達到 14.0%，較上季上升 100 個基點，較去年同期上升 70 個基點。如您在右上角的表格中看到的，我們的核心收益使我們的 CET1 比率提高了 260 個基點。過去一年，普通股股息和2.34億美元的普通股回購使我們的資本比率下降了146個基點。此外，最後一次 CECL 分階段調整髮生在 2025 年第一季度，導致我們的比率下降了 73 個基點，而自 2024 年第三季度以來，回購債務的影響導致 CET1 調整了約 30 個基點。

Finally, our total loss absorption capacity comprising total company tangible common equity plus credit reserves ended the quarter at 26.4% of total loans, a 70 basis point increase compared to last quarter, demonstrating a strong margin of safety should more adverse economic conditions arise. We have a proven track record of accreting capital and generating strong cash flow through challenging economic environments.

最後，公司總有形普通股權益加上信貸準備金構成的總損失吸收能力在本季末達到貸款總額的 26.4%，比上一季成長了 70 個基點，這表明即使出現更不利的經濟狀況，我們也有很強的安全邊際。我們在充滿挑戰的經濟環境下，擁有累積資本和產生強勁現金流的良好記錄。

We have demonstrated our commitment to optimizing our capital structure through the issuance of subordinated debt and the return of capital to shareholders. We will continue to opportunistically optimize our capital structure, which includes potentially issuing preferred shares in the future.

我們透過發行次級債務並向股東返還資本，展現了我們優化資本結構的決心。我們將繼續抓住機會優化我們的資本結構，包括未來可能發行優先股。

Our commitment to prudently returning capital to shareholders is evidenced by today's Board authorized announcements of both a 10% increase in our common share dividend and an additional $200 million share repurchase authorization. This $200 million increase to our existing repurchase authorization in combination with unused capacity under the previous authorization means we have approximately $340 million available for share repurchases at this time. We are well positioned from a capital, liquidity and reserve perspective, providing stability and flexibility to successfully navigate an ever-changing economic environment while delivering value to our shareholders.

我們致力於審慎地向股東返還資本，今天董事會批准的公告證明了這一點：普通股股息增加 10%，並額外授權 2 億美元股票回購。這次將現有回購授權額度增加 2 億美元，加上先前授權額度下未使用的資金，意味著我們目前約有 3.4 億美元可用於股票回購。從資本、流動性和儲備的角度來看，我們擁有良好的基礎，能夠保持穩定性和靈活性，並成功應對不斷變化的經濟環境，同時為股東創造價值。

Moving to credit on slide 7. Our delinquency rate for the third quarter was 6.0%, down 40 basis points from last year and up 30 basis points sequentially, which was slightly better than normal seasonal trends. Our net loss rate was 7.4%, down 40 basis points from last year and down 50 basis points sequentially. Credit metrics continue to benefit from our multiyear credit tightening actions, ongoing product mix shift, and general stability in the macroeconomic environment.

第7頁進入片尾字幕。第三季我們的違約率為 6.0%，比去年同期下降 40 個基點，比上一季上升 30 個基點，略優於正常的季節性趨勢。我們的淨虧損率為7.4%，比去年下降40個基點，較上年下降50個基點。信貸指標繼續受益於我們多年來的信貸緊縮措施、持續的產品組合調整以及宏觀經濟環境的整體穩定。

We anticipate the October and fourth quarter net loss rates will increase sequentially following typical seasonal trends. The third quarter reserve rate of 11.7% at quarter end, a 50 basis point improvement year over year and 20 basis points sequentially was a result of our improving credit metrics and higher quality, new vintages. We continue to maintain prudent weightings on the economic scenarios in our credit reserve model and given the wide range of potential economic outcomes. We expect the reserve rate to decline at year-end before increasing again in the first quarter of 2026 following normal seasonality.

我們預計，按照典型的季節性趨勢，10 月和第四季的淨虧損率將逐週上升。第三季末的準備金率為 11.7%，年減 50 個基點，較上季下降 20 個基點，這是由於我們的信貸指標改善以及新發行債券的品質提高所致。鑑於潛在的經濟結果範圍很廣，我們繼續在信貸儲備模型中對經濟情景保持審慎的權重。我們預計存款準備率將在年底下降，然後在 2026 年第一季以正常季節性規律再次上升。

As mentioned, our disciplined credit risk management and ongoing product diversification has continued to benefit our credit metrics. As you can see on the bottom right chart, our percentage of cardholders with a 660-plus prime score increased 100 basis points year over year to 58%, in line with our expectations. However, macroeconomic uncertainty persists with inflation above the Fed's target rate, evolving trade and government policy impacts to both inflation and labor and continued low consumer sentiment. As a result, we continue to actively monitor these trends while remaining vigilant with our credit strategies. But at this point, we do anticipate a continued gradual improvement in the macroeconomic environment.

如前所述，我們嚴謹的信用風險管理和持續的產品多角化不斷提升了我們的信用指標。從右下角的圖表可以看出，我們信用卡評分達到 660 分以上的持卡人比例同比增長 100 個基點，達到 58%，符合我們的預期。然而，宏觀經濟的不確定性依然存在，通膨率高於聯準會的目標水平，不斷變化的貿易和政府政策對通膨和勞動市場都產生了影響，消費者信心持續低迷。因此，我們將繼續積極關注這些趨勢，同時對我們的信貸策略保持警惕。但就目前而言，我們預期宏觀經濟環境將繼續逐步改善。

Turning to slide 8 and our full year 2025 financial outlook. Overall, our results have trended in line with our expectations, and our outlook remains unchanged from the previous quarter. We continue to expect average loans to be flat to slightly down. Our outlook for total revenue, excluding gains on portfolio sales is anticipated to be roughly flat versus 2024.

接下來請看第 8 張投影片，了解我們 2025 年全年的財務展望。整體而言，我們的業績符合預期，展望與上一季相比保持不變。我們仍然預計平均貸款額將持平或略有下降。我們對總收入的預期（不包括投資組合出售收益）與 2024 年相比大致持平。

We continue to expect to generate full year positive operating leverage in 2025, excluding portfolio sale gains and the pretax impact from our repurchase debt. Our results underscore our ability to deliver operational excellence and maintain expense discipline while investing in the business. Given the continued gradual improvement in our credit metrics, we are confident that we can deliver a full year net loss rate in our guided range of 7.8% to 7.9%. As Ralph mentioned, based on current trends, we expect to come in towards the lower end of that range.

我們仍預期 2025 年全年將實現正向經營槓桿，不包括投資組合出售收益和回購債務的稅前影響。我們的業績凸顯了我們在投資業務的同時，實現卓越營運和控製成本的能力。鑑於我們的信貸指標持續逐步改善，我們有信心實現全年淨損失率在 7.8% 至 7.9% 的預期範圍內。正如拉爾夫所提到的，根據目前的趨勢，我們預計最終結果將接近該範圍的下限。

Finally, with the $38 million favorable discrete tax item in the quarter, we have adjusted our full year effective tax rate guidance to 19% to 20%, while there is variability we would anticipate future years to align more closely with our historical target effective tax rate range of 25% to 26%. Overall, our third quarter results underscore the financial resilience and strong return profile of our business model. We remain confident in our ability to achieve our 2025 financial targets and to deliver strong long-term returns.

最後，由於本季有 3,800 萬美元的有利的一次性稅收項目，我們將全年實際稅率預期調整為 19% 至 20%，儘管存在一定的波動性，但我們預計未來幾年將更接近我們歷史上 25% 至 26% 的目標實際稅率範圍。整體而言，我們第三季的業績凸顯了我們商業模式的財務韌性和強勁的回報前景。我們仍有信心實現2025年的財務目標，並帶來強勁的長期回報。

Operator, we are now ready to open up the lines for questions.

接線員，我們現在可以開始接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions) Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

（操作說明）Sanjay Sakhrani，KBW。

Thank you. Good morning. It sounds like you're seeing constructive trends across the portfolio. And I'm sure you've heard of some of the concerns on some cracks we've seen in consumer credit across some lenders and subprime. I'm just curious, as you've looked across your portfolio, have you seen any signs of weakness? Obviously, it seems like things are trending in the right direction. And then maybe, Perry, just related to that, maybe just the progression of the reserve rate and the loss rate as we go forward if things are stable? Thanks.

謝謝。早安.聽起來您已經看到了投資組合中積極的發展趨勢。我相信你們也聽過一些關於消費者信貸和次級貸款領域出現的一些問題的擔憂。我只是好奇，您在審視自己的投資組合時，有沒有發現任何弱點？顯然，事情似乎正朝著正確的方向發展。然後，佩里，或許可以和這個相關，或許可以考慮一下，如果情況穩定，隨著我們不斷前進，準備金率和損失率的變化？謝謝。

Yes, Sanjay, thanks for the question. So I think it starts with a quick view of the macro environment that I think you mentioned everybody is kind of seeing is that at least through Q3, the consumers and macro metrics have been, I'll say, surprisingly resilient, meaning unemployment and inflation are only slightly different than the prior quarter, which means we've got a pretty stable macro environment. So I think some of the concerns that are out there to set consumers remain nervous about what the future might look like. And that's really showing up in both consumer confidence and consumer sentiment, which is down pretty meaningfully versus last year. So there's going to be more to come on it.

是的，桑傑，謝謝你的提問。所以我認為首先要快速了解宏觀環境，正如你所提到的，大家都看到了，至少在第三季度，消費者和宏觀指標都表現出了令人驚訝的韌性，這意味著失業率和通貨膨脹率與上一季相比只有輕微差異，這意味著我們擁有一個相當穩定的宏觀環境。所以我認為，目前存在的一些擔憂讓消費者仍然對未來感到不安。這一點確實反映在消費者信心和消費者情緒上，與去年相比，這兩項指標都出現了相當大的下降。所以後續還會有更多相關內容。

But for our consumers, as we've talked about, something that was very important is that wages need to outpace inflation for them to get a handle on their finances and their budgeting. And so that's been good, right? Wages have continued to outpace with -- I think it was August date, it was around a little over 3 -- close to 3.5% like 3.4% growth and inflation only being 2.9%. So that's good for our customers. So again, what does it mean going forward is going to be dependent on what happens around the Fed policy and what that then means to inflation is the tariffs unfold and what happens with labor. So more to come on that.

但正如我們之前討論過的，對於我們的消費者來說，非常重要的一點是，薪資成長必須超過通貨膨脹率，他們才能掌控自己的財務狀況和預算。所以這很好，對吧？薪資成長持續超過通貨膨脹率——我記得是八月份，當時的成長率略高於 3%——接近 3.5%，而通貨膨脹率僅為 2.9%。所以這對我們的客戶來說是好事。所以，未來會發生什麼，將取決於聯準會的政策走向，以及關稅政策的發展和勞動市場的變化對通膨的影響。關於這一點，後續還會有更多討論。

But then within our own portfolio, we are seeing stable gradual improvement. And I'd say that's across all vantage bands. So we -- as you know, we don't have a high concentration of subprime. We focus on pretty much the prime customer, maybe some near prime. But we are seeing across the board really good stability.

但就我們自身的投資組合而言，我們看到了穩定且漸進的改善。我認為所有 Vantage 樂隊都是如此。所以，如你所知，我們這裡次級貸款的集中度並不高。我們主要關注的是核心客戶，也可能包括一些準核心客戶。但我們看到整體穩定性非常好。

And that, for us, means we're not seeing the cracks in there at this point. We're very cautious. We're watching it -- watching it very carefully. I'll say the entry rates in the delinquency are better than what they were pre-pandemic. So that's a good sign for us, and we're starting to see some improvement in the later stage roll rates. Again, that I think the macro is going to be real important, but I think our credit strategies and the risk mix shift that we've been seeing are starting to play through. On your question on reserve rate.

對我們來說，這意味著我們目前還沒有看到其中的裂縫。我們非常謹慎。我們正在密切關注此事。我認為，目前的犯罪率比疫情前有所下降。這對我們來說是個好兆頭，我們開始看到後期滾動率有所改善。我再次強調，我認為宏觀經濟狀況將非常重要，但我認為我們一直在看到的信貸策略和風險組合轉變正在開始發揮作用。關於您提出的儲備利率問題。

Please, I'd love to advance for that.

我很想獲得晉昇機會。

Yes. So as it relates to the reserve rate, the only thing that drove the change this quarter was credit quality improving. So as the credit quality improves, that's the core input into it. So the loans we have on the books, similar to last quarter, that's all it was. The macro inputs quarter-to-quarter, very similar.

是的。因此，就準備金率而言，本季推動其變化的唯一因素是信貸品質的改善。因此，隨著信貸品質的提高，這就是其核心投入。所以，我們帳面上的貸款，和上季類似，就這些了。宏觀經濟輸入數據季度環比非常相似。

That didn't really drive any change in the reserve rate. And we kept our credit risk mix the overlays exactly as it was last quarter. So that, as you look forward, as we have more confidence in how the current policies the government are going to play forward, I think you'll start to see us be able to shift back off of those adverse and severely adverse scenarios to get into more of a balanced weighting and that will be a tailwind to the reserve rate, coupled with continued improvement that we expect to see in our overall credit metrics as it pushes through into next year.

這並沒有真正導致存款準備率有任何變化。我們維持了信貸風險組合及附加條款與上季完全相同的水準。因此，展望未來，隨著我們對政府當前政策的執行方式越來越有信心，我認為我們將能夠擺脫那些不利和極其不利的情景，轉而採取更加平衡的權重，這將對存款準備金率起到推動作用，再加上我們預計明年整體信貸指標將持續改善。

Okay. That's great. That's encouraging. And I guess, like as a follow-up to that, I know there's this push and pull between loan growth and credit quality. But I'm just curious, as we think ahead, knowing what we know right now, do you envision loan growth picking up as we move into next year? And maybe you could just talk about the portfolio acquisition opportunities to the extent there are any.

好的。那太棒了。這令人鼓舞。我想，作為上述問題的補充，我知道貸款成長和信貸品質之間存在著這種拉鋸戰。但我很好奇，展望未來，根據我們目前掌握的信息，您是否預計明年貸款成長會加快？或許你還可以談談投資組合收購的機會，如果有的話。

I'll ask Ralph to take that one.

我會讓拉爾夫去接那個任務。

Hey, Sanjay. Good morning. Good to hear your voice. So if I think about it, if I take a step back, we've seen credit sales move in the right direction, 5% for the quarter. We've seen credit is moving in the right direction, more work to do, and we're signing new partners. We announced three new partners today, and we have a really robust pipeline and a consumer that is resilient.

嘿，桑傑。早安.很高興聽到你的聲音。所以，如果我仔細想想，如果我退後一步，我們看到信貸銷售額朝著正確的方向發展，本季成長了 5%。我們看到信貸正朝著正確的方向發展，還有更多工作要做，我們正在簽約新的合作夥伴。我們今天宣布了三位新的合作夥伴，我們擁有非常強大的產品線和適應性強的消費者群體。

So payment rates are higher, obviously, and fees are lower. I'll take a healthy consumer any day of the week in terms of payment and credit -- but given the fact that we're seeing growth, we're seeing the macroeconomic environment kind of be steady and new partners, I think you will see some loan growth going forward.

因此，支付率顯然更高，而手續費更低。就支付和信用而言，我隨時都歡迎健康的消費者——但鑑於我們看到成長，宏觀經濟環境相對穩定，而且有新的合作夥伴，我認為未來貸款業務將會成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great. Thanks. Maybe to just follow up on that and Perry a little bit. In terms of clearly, there's things going on in terms of kind of still temporary moves in payment rate. But if you think about the new mix of your card base, is there like a way to think about the ranges of if you had 5% growth in spend volume, what that would mean in loan growth once that phenomenon is kind of fully kind of played out or what those normal gaps would be given we've got now a different kind of base, more of it being co-brand spending and the like.

偉大的。謝謝。或許只是想跟進一下這件事，再跟佩里聊聊。顯然，支付費率方面正在發生一些暫時性的變動。但是，如果你考慮一下你的信用卡基礎的新組合，有沒有辦法思考一下，如果消費額增長了 5%，那麼一旦這種現象完全顯現，貸款增長會意味著什麼？或者考慮到我們現在有了不同的基礎，更多的是聯名消費等等，正常的差距會是多少？

I think you're asking a question that's really relevant. It depends on the mix of the business that comes on. I mean, you heard Ralph mention the new brand partners coming on in the home space. Those would typically be larger ticket, probably a little bit lower payment rate, so that would have a mix effect.

我認為你問的問題非常重要。這取決於進場的業務組合。我的意思是，你聽拉爾夫說過，家居領域即將迎來新的品牌合作夥伴。這些通常金額較大，支付比例可能會略低一些，所以會產生好壞參半的影響。

But then if you have more of a top-of-wallet co-brand card, that have a higher payment rate. So it's really going to be mix dependent on what we have on. So I don't think it's very easy to say that if you had 5% sales growth all through next year, that 80% of that translates into loan growth. But certainly, there's a factor on that, but it is going to be dependent on mix, and some of that is yet to be seen what that will look like as we get into next year.

但是，如果您持有的是錢包頂部的聯名信用卡，則其支付費率會更高。所以最終的配樂將取決於我們手邊有什麼。所以，我認為很難說，如果明年全年銷售額成長 5%，那麼其中 80% 就能轉化為貸款成長。當然，這其中肯定有一個因素，但這取決於產品組合，而到了明年，產品組合會是什麼樣子，還有一些未知數。

Okay. Thanks. And maybe in terms of some of the commentary on the margin and the impacts of the pricing changes versus kind of lower-billed late fees. Just given the way you think about the kind of the credit improvement, I guess, is there a way to kind of dimensionalize how long it's going to take for until you no longer have that or that build length fee kind of bottoms out? And so that the pricing changes actually will start to increase faster and outweigh that? Kind of any way to kind of dimensionalize that thing.

好的。謝謝。或許還可以就利潤率和價格變化的影響，以及降低滯納金等問題進行一些評論。鑑於你對信用改善的看法，我想，有沒有辦法衡量一下，需要多長時間才能不再需要支付這種費用，或者說，這種信用建設週期費用會降到最低點？那麼，價格變化實際上會加速上漲並超過這種影響嗎？任何能將那東西量化的方法。

Again, another good question. Of course, the way to think about it is the build late fees are obviously going to follow delinquency trends. And that is what we're all eager to see is how quickly does delinquency get to a steady state. We'll get to sort of that through-the-cycle number. So that will be leading and then trailing within six months, I guess, you then have the -- that improvement in the build -- the reversal of build interest and fees.

這又是一個好問題。當然，我們應該這樣理解：建築滯納金顯然會跟隨拖欠率的趨勢而改變。而這正是我們都迫切想看到的，那就是青少年犯罪率需要多久才能達到穩定狀態。我們稍後會談到這個週期內的數字。所以，我想，六個月內，它就會先領先，然後落後，然後——建築業的改善——建築業的利益和費用的逆轉。

So those kind of will be some headwind on the lower build late fees with delinquency, you do have the tailwind that goes with the gross loss improvement. Those two things come together. Then you also then have a shift in risk mix -- product mix within the business, which when you put on some more higher-quality co-brand has a little bit lower APRs and yield versus private label. So that comes through, but then you do have pricing changes that have been made that continue to build.

因此，這些因素會對降低建築滯納金和拖欠款項造成一些不利影響，但總損失的改善會帶來有利影響。這兩件事是相輔相成的。然後，風險組合也會發生變化——業務中的產品組合也會發生變化，當你推出一些更高品質的聯名產品時，其年利率和收益率會比自有品牌略低一些。所以這一點確實有所體現，但同時價格也發生了變化，而且這種變化還在持續。

So there's a lot of moving parts in there, coupled with prime rate reductions, when we're slightly asset sensitive. So I wish there was something to say, hey, where is that perfect inflection point. But with all those moving parts, we'll obviously give more guidance as we get closer to January so that we have a better line of sight to exactly what our view is of mix and tie that into what the macro improvement will be as well as the credit improvement within the portfolio.

所以這裡面有很多變數，再加上基準利率下調，我們對資產價格又比較敏感。所以我希望能夠說，嘿，那個完美的轉折點在哪裡？但由於涉及諸多變數，隨著 1 月的臨近，我們顯然會給出更多指導，以便更好地了解我們對投資組合的看法，並將其與宏觀經濟的改善以及投資組合內的信貸改善聯繫起來。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I did want to -- just continuing this conversation around credit sales and loan growth. Maybe just -- how are you thinking about credit sales in 4Q and into 2026? I think you mentioned there was a little bit of moderation as you move through the quarter after a strong back-to-school season. So just trying to understand, do you think we're in a little bit of an air pocket right now before you get to holiday shopping? Or just how are you thinking about holiday shopping? What are you hearing from your retail partners? Thanks.

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。我的確想繼續討論信貸銷售和貸款成長的議題。或許可以問一下－您如何看待第四季以及2026年的賒銷情況？我想你提到過，在經歷了強勁的開學季之後，隨著學期的推進，情況有所緩和。所以我想了解一下，您認為在假期購物季到來之前，我們現在是否處於相對平靜的時期？或者，您打算如何進行假日購物呢？你從零售合作夥伴那裡聽到了什麼回饋？謝謝。

Thanks. So credit sales, again, we're seeing some pretty good growth in credit sales right now. As mentioned, it was early in the quarter with back-to-school, was stronger. September moderated a little bit, still positive. And we're seeing a similar trend in October, still being up year over year.

謝謝。所以，就信貸銷售而言，我們目前看到信貸銷售出現了相當不錯的成長。如前所述，由於正值開學季初期，所以情況比較強勁。9月份略有緩和，但仍維持正成長。10 月也出現了類似的趨勢，年比仍然成長。

I think we're seeing different reports, but expectation is retailers are going to be pretty aggressive trying to draw the customers in, possibly early. So consumers are looking for discounts. They're looking for promotions and reward programs are going to be really important to make that happen. I mean, consumers -- and I think we've said this for a while now, we've been very impressed with how consumers have been responsible with their budgets. And in this period of time, they're going to be looking for deals and ways to make that budget stretch or go further.

我認為我們看到的報導各不相同，但普遍預期零售商會非常積極地吸引顧客，甚至可能提前開業。所以消費者都在尋找折扣。他們正在尋求晉升，而獎勵計劃對於實現這一目標至關重要。我的意思是，消費者——而且我認為我們已經說過一段時間了——我們對消費者在預算管理方面的負責任態度印象深刻。在此期間，他們會尋找各種優惠和方法，讓預算更充裕或更有效地利用。

So if retailers come out early in the holiday season with good deals, I expect consumers will spend on that. But then maybe it could be somewhat like some, I'll say, old historical days when I go to the day before Christmas, I go look for that great deal when we didn't have the money to get things and pay full price early. So it really is going to depend on how that looks and what the inventory situation and how motivated retailers are to take care of their inventory.

因此，如果零售商在假日季初期就推出優惠活動，我預期消費者會為此消費。但也許這有點像以前的某些日子，例如聖誕節前一天，我們會去找便宜貨，那時候我們沒錢提前買東西，不用付全價。所以，這真的取決於市場狀況、庫存狀況以及零售商管理庫存的動機。

Got it. Thanks for that. That's helpful. When I think about the interchange revenues, a pretty big step up in that one -- in that line item this quarter. I think even if you look at it as a percent of credit sales. Could you maybe just talk about how you expect that line to trend? What are you expecting to happen? I suspect it's got to do with the RSAs and some of the big-ticket items. But just how should we be thinking about that line item from here going forward? What do you expect?

知道了。謝謝。那很有幫助。就交換費收入而言，本季該項收入出現了相當大的成長。我認為即使從賒銷額的百分比來看也是如此。您能否談談您預計這條線將如何變化？你預期會發生什麼事？我懷疑這與RSA（風險保障協議）和一些大宗商品有關。但是，從現在開始，我們該如何看待這項內容呢？你期望什麼？

Yes. Again, it's one of the -- I say NIM is hard to forecast. RSA's is another one that's pretty hard to forecast because of the netting that goes on in there. So that the RSA is going to be pressured as we see increased sales. And so increased sales, there's some compensation to partners or in the rewards and loyalty funding as well as some compensation. And then also when you have revenue shares, when you have losses coming down, it leads to a higher revenue share, profit share with partners.

是的。再說一遍，這是其中之一——我說淨利潤率很難預測。由於 RSA 內部存在複雜的網絡，因此很難預測其趨勢。因此，隨著銷售額的成長，RSA 將面臨壓力。因此，隨著銷售額的成長，合作夥伴會獲得一些補償，或透過獎勵和忠誠度基金獲得一些補償。此外，當存在收入分成時，當虧損減少時，就會出現更高的收入分成和與合作夥伴的利潤分成。

So you've got sales-based rebates, you've got the revenue share in there, you got the profit share and everything I just mentioned around the rewards funding. In addition, when you -- we've been seeing some lower big-ticket purchases, then MDFs are pressured because of that softness. So as the big ticket bounces back, if that happens in some of the verticals, that could be a tailwind. But as the spend grows, you also have some more partner share and revenue share. So there's a lot going on in there.

所以，這裡有基於銷售額的回饋，有收入分成，有利潤分成，以及我剛才提到的所有與獎勵資金相關的內容。此外，我們看到一些大宗商品的購買量有所下降，而中密度纖維板（MDF）由於其柔軟性而面臨壓力。因此，如果大宗商品價格反彈，並且這種情況在某些垂直領域發生，那可能會帶來順風。但隨著支出增加，您也會獲得更多的合作夥伴份額和收入份額。所以裡面發生了很多事。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Jeffrey Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

傑弗裡·阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Just wanted to focus a little bit more on the pipeline and the signings you announced this quarter. It seems like the home vertical was more of a focus for you this quarter. Is that something you're looking to focus on here, maybe creating a little bit more of a network effect around the home area and launching a joint card like one of your competitor has? And then are there any other verticals you'd call out as areas of focus for you going forward? I mean, you mentioned the healthy or the robust pipeline so maybe just sort of focus on what's in the pipeline.

嘿。各位早安。我想重點談談你們本季宣布的人才儲備和簽約事宜。看來本季你們的重點更放在了家居領域。這是你們想要重點關注的方向嗎？例如在本地市場營造更強大的網路效應，並像你們的競爭對手一樣推出聯名卡？那麼，您認為未來還有哪些垂直領域是需要重點關注的呢？我的意思是，你提到了健康或強大的產品線，所以也許應該把重點放在產品線的內容上。

Yes. Thanks for the question. The home vertical is a good one for us, right? Because it's discretionary, non-discretionary. There's home repairs and there's other discretionary furniture. So we view that as a very active vertical for us and very strong vertical. And we'll most likely add to that as we move forward, which I think is positive for us. So we'll, again, be one of the leading contenders in that vertical as we are in beauty and a couple of others.

是的。謝謝你的提問。居家垂直領域對我們來說是個不錯的選擇，對吧？因為這是酌情決定的，也是非酌情決定的。包括房屋維修和其他可自由支配的家具。所以我們認為這是我們非常活躍且實力非常強勁的一個垂直領域。隨著我們不斷發展，我們很可能會繼續增加這方面的投入，我認為這對我們來說是件好事。所以，我們將再次成為該垂直領域的領先競爭者之一，就像我們在美容和其他幾個領域一樣。

So there's a -- we look across our portfolio. It's diversified now. It's -- we've derisked it in terms not only of product but also of industry. So we feel really good about that. The pipeline is robust across all those verticals. So we're looking forward to adding new partners within this vertical, establishing new ones. We've got a travel vertical that's doing very well.

所以，我們來看看我們的投資組合。現在業務已經多元化了。我們已經降低了風險，不僅在產品方面，而且在行業方面。所以我們對這一點感到非常滿意。該銷售管道在所有這些垂直領域都十分穩健。因此，我們期待在這個垂直領域中增加新的合作夥伴，建立新的合作關係。我們的旅遊業務部門發展得非常好。

Beauty is still a big contender. And now with this home improvement and home furnishing vertical, we feel that also will move forward. So we are kind of insulating ourselves from any one vertical that there'd be an issue with. Usually, it was if the mall went bad and apparel was a bad vertical, that would throw us off. Now we're kind of insulated from those type of one-off verticals that tend to -- that may be impacted by the economy.

美貌仍然是強有力的競爭者。現在，隨著家居裝修和家居用品行業的蓬勃發展，我們認為這個行業也將向前邁進。所以，我們其實是把自己與任何可能出現問題的垂直領域隔離開來。通常情況下，如果商場經營不善，服裝業表現不佳，就會影響我們的生意。現在我們基本上不會受到那些容易受到經濟影響的一次性垂直產業的影響。

Okay. Great. And maybe just a follow-up on capital return. You've been on a little bit of a roll here with the buyback authorizations. I guess, just maybe any sort of way to think about like what needs to happen for you to move past this medium-term 13% to 14%? Is it just settling the preferred, maybe getting your credit rating up to investment grade. I think you're now a couple of notches away. And have you thought about maybe establishing a larger repurchase authorization? Or do you prefer to be a little bit more on the quarterly cadence or half year cadence here?

好的。偉大的。或許還需要跟進一下資本報酬率。你們在回購授權方面最近勢頭不錯。我想，或許可以思考一下，要突破中期13%到14%的瓶頸，需要發生什麼事？是不是只是為了達到理想狀態，或許是為了將你的信用評級提升到投資等級？我覺得你現在離目標只差幾個檔次了。您有沒有考慮過提高回購授權額度？還是您更傾向於按季度或半年一次的頻率來安排？

Real good question. So as we think about capital, one, let me start with -- we've not changed our capital priorities, right? We have always said we're going to fund responsible, profitable growth. So some of what will inform our capital authorizations or share repurchase automations in the future will be based on the growth that we have in front of us. We'll continue to invest in technology and our capability to serve our brand partners and customers. And we'll make sure we maintain those strong capital ratios and obviously return capital as appropriate.

問得好。所以，當我們思考資本問題時，首先，我想說的是──我們的資本優先事項還沒有改變，對吧？我們一直都說，我們要為負責任的、獲利性的成長提供資金。因此，未來我們的資本授權或股票回購自動化流程的一些決策將基於我們未來的成長前景。我們將繼續投資於技術和自身能力，以便更好地服務我們的品牌合作夥伴和客戶。我們會確保維持良好的資本充足率，並酌情返還資本。

And to your point, though, on right now, our binding constraint is CET1 around that 13% to 14%, which we said was our medium-term target. And so we got to the top end of that this quarter. We have confidence in what we see going forward. And the important part was that we want to make sure we had enough authorization out there to provide us capital flexibility should we choose to do something to further optimize our capital stack.

不過，正如您所說，目前我們的限制條件是 CET1 大約在 13% 到 14% 之間，我們說過這是我們的中期目標。因此，我們本季達到了該目標的頂峰。我們對未來的發展充滿信心。重要的是，我們要確保有足夠的授權，以便在我們選擇採取某些措施進一步優化資本結構時，能夠為我們提供資金彈性。

And when you talked about what would it take to lower our binding constraint to CET1 down to that 12% to 13%, which is what we said in our Investor Day would be our longer-term target. It does mean introducing some Tier 1 capital in the form of preferreds over time. But really, the rating upgrade is less relevant to that. That's more around what happens with senior debt or senior notes in the future and other financings that are keyed off of those ratings. We don't need to get to an investment grade to take capital actions.

當您談到要將我們對 CET1 的約束性限制降低到 12% 到 13% 需要做些什麼時，正如我們在投資者日上所說，這將是我們的長期目標。這意味著隨著時間的推移，需要以優先股的形式引入一些一級資本。但實際上，評級提升與此關係不大。這更多是與未來優先債務或優先票據以及其他與這些評級相關的融資有關。我們不需要達到投資等級才能進行資本操作。

Reginald Smith, JPMorgan.

雷金納德‧史密斯，摩根大通。

Hey. Good morning, guys. I was looking through your slide deck and my rough math has like your BNPL sales volume up maybe 100%. That's probably a dirty calculation. But I guess, there's a lot of investor interest in the BNPL space, certainly over the last couple of months. I was just curious, do you guys offer or have like a dual BNPL proprietary card today? And is there an opportunity there to kind of do more on that kind of blended dual-purpose cards? And I have one follow-up. Thank you.

嘿。各位早安。我看了你的投影片，粗略計算了一下，你的先買後付銷售額可能成長了 100%。那很可能是一筆不正當的計算。但我認為，投資者對「先買後付」（BNPL）領域非常感興趣，尤其是在過去的幾個月。我只是好奇，你們現在有提供或有類似雙 BNPL 的專屬信用卡嗎？那麼，在這種混合型雙用途顯示卡領域，是否有機會做更多的事情？我還有一個後續問題。謝謝。

So I think you have to look at our full product offering, right? So I think you have a way to look at it. And so we have co-brand cards. And that's -- I think co-brand cards right now are probably the majority of our spend in terms of going forward, discretionary and non-discretionary private label credit cards to absolutely have private label credit cards, and we see spend continuing on those cards.

所以我覺得您應該了解我們的全部產品，對嗎？所以我覺得你有一種看待這個問題的方法。所以就有了聯名卡。而且——我認為，就未來而言，聯名卡可能占我們支出的大部分，可自由支配和非可自由支配的自有品牌信用卡絕對會推出自有品牌信用卡，而且我們看到這些卡上的支出會繼續下去。

And then we have Buy Now, Pay Later. Now. Buy Now, Pay later is a pay in for an installment loan. You have two types of Buy Now, Pay Later out there as well. And then lastly, we have our prop card, right? Our prop card is a small but growing portfolio.

然後我們還有「先買後付」模式。現在。先買後付是一種分期貸款的付款方式。市面上還有兩種「先買後付」的類型。最後，我們還有道具卡，對吧？我們的道具卡目前規模雖小，但正在不斷增長。

So it becomes a basket of products we have, and it's kind of a uniform process that we go through, and we can offer a consumer wherever they are in their in their kind of credit establishing credit where they are in their -- in that journey, we have a product for them. We have a product for them through a partner or directly to them. So we feel very, very good about our diverse portfolio in terms of product and our diverse portfolio in terms of different industry verticals.

因此，它變成了我們擁有的產品組合，這是一個我們遵循的統一流程，無論消費者處於信用建立的哪個階段，我們都能為他們提供合適的產品——在這個過程中，我們總能找到適合他們的產品。我們可以透過合作夥伴或直接向他們提供產品。因此，我們對我們多元化的產品組合以及我們涵蓋不同行業領域的多元化產品組合感到非常非常滿意。

Got it. I guess what I'm getting at is I look at companies like Quanta and Affirm like they're really leveraging that point of sale to bring customers into the ecosystem. I guess, what I'm asking is -- what are your thoughts around I know Brett historically has been kind of a white label solution for retailers. But is there an opportunity to be a little more aggressive on the front foot there to kind of bring more customers in into the platform?

知道了。我想表達的是，我認為像 Quanta 和 Affirm 這樣的公司真正利用了銷售點將客戶引入生態系統。我想問的是——您對 Brett 有什麼看法？我知道 Brett 從歷史上看一直是零售商的一種白標解決方案。但是，我們是否有機會採取更積極主動的策略，吸引更多客戶加入平台呢？

Unlike the two you mentioned, we are focused on partnerships. That's where we're focused. We're focused on not just bringing people into our ecosystem. We're making sure people are in our partner ecosystem. We can provide the credit products for them for our partners. So that's what's important to us.

與您提到的兩家公司不同，我們專注於合作夥伴關係。這就是我們關注的重點。我們關注的不僅是把人引入我們的生態系統。我們正在確保人們融入我們的合作夥伴生態系統。我們可以為我們的合作夥伴提供信貸產品。所以這對我們來說很重要。

We have some direct-to-consumer -- as you know, we have direct-to-consumer in terms of our credit card. We have direct-to-consumer. Even on breadth on certain sites where you'll see our button. But our main focus is ensuring that we provide our partners with the right products for their customers to drive loyalty no matter where they are in their credit journey, and we have that basket of products to do it.

我們有一些直接面向消費者的業務——正如您所知，我們的信用卡業務就是直接面向消費者的。我們採用直接面向消費者的模式。甚至在某些網站上，您也能看到我們的按鈕。但我們的主要重點是確保為我們的合作夥伴提供合適的產品，無論客戶的信用狀況如何，都能提高客戶忠誠度，而我們擁有實現這一目標所需的一系列產品。

That actually makes sense. Okay. Real quick for me, last one. Thinking about like AI and automation and the potential there, like I've seen some reports that like AI and automation could have a multi triple-digit kind of basis point impact on efficiency ratios in the credit card, the banking space, like how are you guys thinking about that longer term? I guess, the -- I would imagine there's like an opportunity there, but just maybe can you frame that out longer time for us? Thank you.

這其實很有道理。好的。我很快就結束，最後一個。考慮到人工智慧和自動化及其潛力，我看到一些報告稱，人工智慧和自動化可能會對信用卡和銀行業效率比率產生三位數的顯著影響，你們是如何看待這方面的長期發展前景的？我想，這或許是一個機會，但您能否花更長時間為我們詳細闡述？謝謝。

Yeah, Reggie, thank you. So we agree there's definitely opportunity with AI, and we've been engaged with it for a while. So for us, we look at AI as an opportunity to accelerate our operational excellence objectives. We've talked about that, right, simplifying and streamlining and automating their business processes. Driving increased efficiency, allows us to deploy new capabilities that reduces risk and improve controls while enhancing the customer and employee experiences.

是的，雷吉，謝謝你。所以我們一致認為人工智慧領域蘊藏著巨大的機遇，而且我們已經關注這個領域一段時間了。因此，我們認為人工智慧是加速實現卓越營運目標的契機。我們之前討論過這個問題，對吧，就是簡化、優化和自動化他們的業務流程。提高效率，使我們能夠部署新的功能，進而降低風險、改善控制，同時提升客戶和員工體驗。

And it also allows us to accelerate innovation and move things through the tech pipeline faster, and we were able to do that, you're able to drive growth. So it's beyond just efficiency. And as it relates to AI, one thing I'd tell you is our approach is to be a fast follower. So we're learning from the early adopters. We spent a lot of money on both what worked and what didn't work. And so we're very thoughtful in identifying and focusing on those use cases that have the highest likelihood of being impactful to our business.

它還能幫助我們加速創新，加快技術流程，而我們能夠做到這一點，就能推動成長。所以這不僅僅是效率的問題。至於人工智慧方面，我想告訴大家的是，我們的方法是快速跟進。所以我們正在向早期採用者學習。我們在有效和無效的方面都投入了大量資金。因此，我們非常認真地去識別和關注那些最有可能對我們的業務產生影響的用例。

That means we look for immediate business value. We want long-term platform scalability as well being regulated. We've got to make sure it's regulator confidence in what we're doing. And all of this should continue to drive positive operating leverage over time. So the one thing also around Bread Financial and with our terrific technology team that we have, we're nimble in how we can deploy things across the company.

這意味著我們追求的是立竿見影的商業價值。我們希望平台具有長期可擴展性，並且受到監管。我們必須確保監管機構對我們所做的事情充滿信心。隨著時間的推移，所有這些都應繼續推動積極的經營槓桿效應。所以，Bread Financial 的另一個優勢在於，憑藉著我們優秀的科技團隊，我們可以靈活地在公司內部部署各種技術。

And -- but AI is not new to us. And that's the thing that I think I want to be clear on as well is we have over 200 machine learning models out there across many functions, including credit, collections, marketing and fraud. We have enhanced over a hundred processes to date with leveraging robotic process automation. So look, there's a lot of opportunity ahead of us, right, like generative and Agentic AI are exciting developments, and we're going to be ready to go with some of those. And -- but we're excited about what the future holds with this, and there are opportunities, but I would look at it as continuing to help contribute to driving growth and driving positive operating leverage and helping with efficiency ratios over time.

但人工智慧對我們來說並不新鮮。我想明確一點，我們目前在信貸、催收、行銷和反詐騙等多個領域擁有超過 200 個機器學習模型。到目前為止，我們已經利用機器人流程自動化改進了一百多個流程。所以你看，我們面前有很多機會，對吧？例如生成式人工智慧和智慧體人工智慧都是令人興奮的發展方向，我們將做好準備，迎接其中的一些挑戰。我們對未來充滿期待，也看到了機遇，但我認為它將繼續幫助推動成長，帶來正面的營運槓桿效應，並隨著時間的推移提高效率比率。

Yeah, I think our approach is very prudent, as Perry said. We're a fast follower. But listen, at the end of the day, we're a regulated industry, so we're going to protect our customers' data. We're going to all our information. We're going to make sure nothing enters our environment that is that is harmful in this world of ever-changing technology. But our focus on AI is to enhance the customer experience, make sure our employees have the tools in their hands to better serve our customers and partners, and make sure that we are -- we gain efficiencies across the patch and that we -- we're using it for better decision making and better revenue generation.

是的，我認為我們的做法非常謹慎，正如佩里所說。我們反應迅速。但說到底，我們身處在受監管的行業，所以一定會保護客戶的資料。我們將獲取所有資訊。在這個科技日新月異的世界裡，我們要確保沒有任何有害物質進入我們的環境。但我們對人工智慧的關注點在於提升客戶體驗，確保我們的員工擁有更好地服務客戶和合作夥伴的工具，並確保我們能夠提高整個業務的效率，並利用人工智慧做出更好的決策，創造更好的收入。

Perfect. Thank you, guys.

完美的。謝謝大家。

Dominick Gabriele, Compass Point.

多明尼克·加布里埃爾，指南針角。

Hey, guys. Thanks so much for the call and I don't know what to say. Congrats on the buyback and the execution here. It's many years in the making.

嘿，夥計們。非常感謝您的來電，我都不知道該說些什麼了。恭喜你們成功完成股票回購和執行。這是多年努力的成果。

At some point, though, when do you think the industry stops using the terminology resilient consumer? Because at the end of the day, we mentioned that across the credit spectrum, all the vintage scores improving. You said that -- actually, it sounds like there's acceleration in the improvement of your delinquencies at quarter end. I mean, when do we get to the point when we just say the consumer is solid across the spectrum and credit looks pretty good and it's trending back down. I guess, what are you guys seeing as far as that? And then I just have a follow-up.

但你認為，在某個時候，這個行業會停止使用「具有韌性的消費者」這個術語嗎？因為歸根究底，我們提到過，從整體信用狀況來看，所有年份的信用評分都在增加。你說過——實際上，聽起來你們季度末的拖欠款項改善速度有所加快。我的意思是，什麼時候我們才能說消費者整體狀況良好，信用狀況看起來也相當不錯，而且呈下降趨勢呢？我想問，你們對此有什麼看法？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yeah, I think I'd go on record saying I think the consumer is stable and credit is improving. Now again, we're still seeing elevated delinquencies and elevated losses. So we're not where we need to be. But I think the caution in there that you're hearing from most folks is they've been resilient in dealing with this prolonged period of inflation, which is compounded. They're getting the handle on it.

是的，我認為我可以公開表示，我認為消費者情緒穩定，信貸狀況正在改善。現在，我們仍然看到違約率和損失率居高不下。所以，我們還沒有達到目標。但我認為，大多數人的謹慎態度是，他們在應對這段持續的、不斷加劇的通貨膨脹時期表現出了很強的韌性。他們正在逐漸掌握情況。

But it's more what I said earlier. It's caution with sentiment being down everybody is all nervous with the uncertainty that's out there, what's to come. And I think as soon as this certainty comes forward with what the tariff implications would be and other policy things, what it means to labor and businesses can start to invest confidently in jobs, I think you're going to see the narrative flip. It's just -- I think it's the uncertainty component right now. That is why you're hearing some a little bit of cautiousness.

但更確切地說，是我之前說的。由於市場情緒低迷，大家都很謹慎，對未來充滿不確定性，感到緊張不安。我認為，一旦關稅的影響以及其他政策方面的問題得到明確，對勞動力和企業意味著什麼，他們就可以開始有信心地投資於就業，我認為輿論風向就會發生轉變。我覺得主要是──目前最大的問題是不確定性。這就是為什麼你會聽到一些謹慎的聲音。

And there's always cracks, right? There's always something that in credit land where there's some sort of issue, but it feels like generally the consumer, I mean, is improving. And I guess when you -- Mastercard came out actually with their holiday spend and it looks like they expect some deceleration and year over year versus our last estimate, about a 1% deceleration.

總會有裂縫，對吧？信貸領域總是會存在一些問題，但總的來說，消費者的狀況似乎正在改善。我猜想，萬事達卡公佈了他們的假期消費預期，看起來他們預計消費增速將有所放緩，與我們上次的估計相比，同比增速將放緩約 1%。

And so if you think about what you guys are seeing at the end of the quarter, you mentioned that spending has actually decelerated a little bit. That's pretty much in line with what we're seeing on an inter-quarter basis. So do you think that retailers seeing that potential forecast within their own models would trigger more discounts? And how does those discounts kind of affect Bread in a period where maybe versus a period where less discounts were given? Thanks so much, guys, and great results.

所以，如果你想想你們在本季末看到的情況，你提到支出其實已經略有放緩。這與我們按季度間變化的情況基本一致。那麼你認為零售商如果在自己的模型中看到這種潛在預測，是否會促使他們推出更多折扣？那麼，在折扣力道較大的時期，這些折扣會對麵包的銷售量產生怎樣的影響？與折扣力道較小的時期相比，麵包的銷售量又會受到怎樣的影響呢？非常感謝各位，效果很棒！

I mean, I think you will see the retail is probably push discounts and reward opportunities probably forward more forward in the buying cycle for the Christmas holiday to pull that forward. But I think consumers are savvy. They're going to look for those discounts. They're going to look for those, how do we monetize and optimize my reward programs out there.

我的意思是，我認為你會看到零售商可能會在聖誕節假期前的購買週期中提前推出折扣和獎勵機會，以加快銷售。但我認為消費者都很精明。他們會尋找那些折扣。他們會尋找這些問題，例如我們如何將現有的獎勵計劃貨幣化並進行最佳化。

So I think that's I don't think that's changed from any year. I think you'll see that. You've seen that in the past, and I think you'll see that in the future. You may see it a bit earlier and maybe a bit steeper by sort of consumers, there are certain verticals, but I think you'll end up seeing that.

所以我覺得這一點和往年一樣，沒有改變。我想你會明白的。你過去已經見過這種情況，我認為將來還會看到這種情況。你可能會看到某些消費者群體更早、更迅速地看到這種情況，某些垂直領域尤其如此，但我認為你最終會看到這種情況。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

Vincent Caintic，BTIG。

Hey. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. And actually, so two of them and they're kind of follow-ups to some earlier questions. So kind of to the point about your good credit trends and where you're underwriting. I mean, you're talking about a positive consumer, late fees are coming down, but that's an output of the better credit that you're experiencing, and then you're expecting a gradual improvement to the macroeconomic environment. So I'm wondering if you still consider your underwriting to still be tight? And if so, at what point do you lean into growth? Thank you.

嘿。早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。實際上，有兩個問題，它們是對先前一些問題的後續。所以，重點是你的良好信用記錄以及你的承保情況。我的意思是，你現在談論的是積極的消費者，滯納金正在下降，但這只是信貸狀況改善的結果，然後你期待宏觀經濟環境逐步改善。所以我想知道您是否仍然認為您的承保標準很嚴格？如果是這樣，你會在什麼時候開始追求成長？謝謝。

So one thing, Vince, thanks for the question. One, we just -- as we said for a long time, we're running the business for a long-term focus. So we've been making targeted adjustments to our underwriting segments as we go, looking at risk and reward, make sure we get paid for the risk we take. And so that's been dynamic as customer behavior to improve both on us as well as office, what you see in the bureaus and as well as macro considerations are all factors into our decision.

文斯，還有一件事，謝謝你的提問。第一，正如我們一直以來所說的那樣，我們經營這家企業是為了長遠發展。因此，我們一直在根據實際情況對核保業務進行有針對性的調整，權衡風險和回報，確保我們承擔的風險得到相應的回報。因此，客戶行為一直在動態變化，這既有利於我們自身，也有利於辦公室。您在各部門看到的情況以及宏觀因素都是我們決策的考量。

So we've been executing a gradual unwind of -- that was just there for the macro tightening. But it's been deliberately improving the mix of accounts that's been moving us more towards Prime Plus. But again, it's not this wholesale change. But at the same time, you have tightening happen in other places where you might see a little bit of weakness in certain cohorts. But our underwriting philosophy has remained profit focused. We're looking to deliver some industry-leading ROEs and return on equity and can get our losses down to 6%.

所以我們一直在逐步解除——這只是為了應對宏觀經濟緊縮而採取的措施。但正是透過有意識地改善帳戶組合，我們得以更接近 Prime Plus。但再次強調，這並不是徹底的改變。但同時，其他一些地方的情況也在收緊，你可能會看到某些群體出現一些疲軟的跡象。但我們的核保理念始終以獲利為導向。我們希望實現業界領先的淨資產收益率和股本回報率，並將虧損降至 6%。

But as we think about the improvement that we're looking to see in our loss rate over time, it's not going to be fast and furious getting down to 6%. We're not doing things that would be overly detrimental to our brand partners. So when we talk about trying to get to 6%, we're trying to get each vintage to perform in line with expectations. And we could have taken a more, I'll say, draconian approach and really driven, I'd say, a new vintage down to, say, 4% losses, which get our overall loss rate faster, but that would be detrimental to our brand partners. If we were just mainly a branded business, we could probably do something like that to ourselves.

但當我們思考希望隨著時間的推移，損失率能夠改善時，要迅速降至 6% 是不可能的。我們不會做任何會對品牌夥伴造成過大傷害的事情。所以當我們說要努力達到 6% 的目標時，我們是指要讓每個年份的葡萄酒都能達到預期表現。我們本可以採取更嚴厲的措施，例如將新年份的虧損率降低到 4%，這樣可以更快地降低我們的整體虧損率，但這會損害我們的品牌合作夥伴的利益。如果我們主要是一家品牌企業，我們或許可以對自己做類似的事情。

But this isn't the business we're in. So we're very thoughtful about that. And I think you're going to see that consumer health and macro considerations will help drive what we do with underwriting. But we're really pleased with the new accounts that we're seeing coming in, with the average Vantage scores, around 720, with over 72% being prime. And so we're very thoughtful on how we manage line assignments. So obviously, customers that come in the door that are more near prime, are getting a much lower line assignment.

但這並非我們所從事的行業。所以我們對此考慮得非常周全。我認為你會看到，消費者健康和宏觀經濟因素將有助於推動我們的核保工作。但我們對新加入的客戶非常滿意，平均 Vantage 評分約為 720 分，其中超過 72% 為優質客戶。因此，我們在管理生產線分配方面非常謹慎。很顯然，那些接近優質等級的顧客，會被分配到更低等級的服務。

But all those things factor in, and that helps with that low and grow strategy we have with credit. So we are a very seasoned credit team, and we've been very thoughtful behind this goes. But all these together, as Ralph said, we're going to get this inflection point of growth as credit improves, meaning we have less losses, macro improves, the book we're putting on, this is going to start to translate into growth as we start to march into next year.

但所有這些因素都會被考慮在內，這有助於我們採取低利率、高成長的信貸策略。我們是一支經驗豐富的信貸團隊，而且我們在這方面考慮得非常周全。但正如拉爾夫所說，所有這些因素加在一起，隨著信貸改善，我們將迎來增長的拐點，這意味著損失減少，宏觀經濟改善，我們正在進行的融資活動，隨著我們邁入明年，這將開始轉化為增長。

Yeah, I think if I had to put a sentence on our philosophy is our underwriting is prudent with a focus on profitability. That's why -- if I had to put a sound bite on our -- how we think about credit.

是的，如果要用一句話來概括我們的理念，那就是我們的承保策略謹慎，注重獲利能力。這就是為什麼──如果非要用一句話來概括──我們對信貸的看法。

Okay. Great. Thank you both. And then, Perry, just kind of a follow-up, and it's great to see the additional share repurchases and your execution of that. You mentioned that it would take issuing preferreds to get down to the 12% to 13% CET1. And I'm just wondering what you need to see to feel comfortable kind of executing on maybe issuing those preferreds? Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你們兩位。然後，佩里，我再補充一點，很高興看到你們追加股票回購以及你們的執行情況。您提到，需要發行優先股才能將 CET1 比率降至 12% 至 13%。我只是想知道，您需要看到什麼才能放心地發行這些優先股？謝謝。

Yeah, it's just consistent with what we've said for -- I think since last Investor Day, it's just being opportunistic and making sure that it's the right time and our company is in the right position to do so. It's market dependent.

是的，這和我們一直以來所說的一致——我認為自從上次投資者日以來，我們一直在把握機會，確保時機成熟，公司也處於合適的地位。這取決於市場情況。

Okay. Great. Thank you both.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你們兩位。

And I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'll now pass it back to Ralph Andretta for closing remarks.

我目前不會再提出其他問題。現在我將把發言權交還給拉爾夫·安德雷塔，請他作總結發言。

Well, thank you all for joining the call today and for your continued interest in Bread Financial. We look forward to speaking to you next quarter. And everyone, have a terrific day. Thank you.

感謝各位今天參加電話會議，也感謝大家一直以來對 Bread Financial 的關注。我們期待下個季度與您再次交流。祝大家今天過得愉快！謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。現在您可以斷開連接了，祝您度過美好的一天。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。