Bread Financial Holdings Inc (BFH) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. And welcome to Bread Financial's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Livia and I'll be coordinating your call today. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to introduce Mr. Brian Vereb, Head of Investor Relations at Bread Financial. The floor is yours.

早安.歡迎參加 Bread Financial 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我叫 Livia，今天我要負責協調您的通話。（操作員指示）現在我很高興介紹 Bread Financial 投資者關係主管 Brian Vereb 先生。現在輪到你了。

Thank you. Copies of the slides we will be reviewing and the earnings release can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website at breadfinancial.com. On the call today, we have Ralph Andretta, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Perry Beberman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that some of the comments made on today's call and some of the responses to your questions may contain forward-looking statements.

謝謝。我們將要審查的幻燈片和收益報告副本可在我們網站 breadfinancial.com 的「投資者關係」部分找到。今天的電話會議由總裁兼執行長 Ralph Andretta 和執行副總裁兼財務長 Perry Beberman 主持。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，今天電話會議上的一些評論和對您的問題的一些答案可能包含前瞻性陳述。

These statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and are subject to the risk and uncertainties described in the company's earnings release and other filings with the SEC. Also on today's call, our speakers will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures which we believe will provide useful information for investors. Reconciliation of those measures to GAAP are included in our quarterly earnings materials posted on our Investor Relations website. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Ralph Andretta.

這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期和假設，並受公司收益報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中所描述的風險和不確定性的影響。此外，在今天的電話會議上，我們的發言人將參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標，我們相信這些指標將為投資者提供有用的信息。這些指標與 GAAP 的對帳內容包含在我們投資者關係網站上發布的季度收益資料中。說完這些，我想把電話轉給拉爾夫·安德雷塔 (Ralph Andretta)。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning to everyone joining the call. Today Bread Financials reported strong first quarter 2025 earnings results, including net income of $138 million and earnings per diluted share of $2.78.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早安。今天，Bread Financials 公佈了強勁的 2025 年第一季獲利業績，包括 1.38 億美元的淨收入和 2.78 美元的每股攤薄收益。

Our results reflected our resilient business model, strategic credit tightening actions, and ability to deliver despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. We advanced our efforts to optimize our capital structure and strengthen our balance sheet with successful execution of a $400 million sub-ordinated notes offering during the first quarter.

我們的業績反映了我們富有彈性的商業模式、策略性的信貸緊縮措施以及在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境下實現目標的能力。我們在第一季成功發行了 4 億美元的次級票據，進一步優化了資本結構，增強了資產負債表。

As a result of our disciplined approach to capital allocation, we also completed our $150 million board authorized share repurchase program, repurchasing 3.2 million shares over March and April. These actions and the ongoing strong capital and cash flow generation of our business created additional capital flexibility and opportunities for Bread Financial to deliver further value to our shareholders.

由於我們採取了嚴格的資本配置方法，我們也完成了董事會授權的 1.5 億美元股票回購計劃，在 3 月和 4 月回購了 320 萬股。這些行動以及我們業務持續強勁的資本和現金流為 Bread Financial 創造了額外的資本靈活性和機會，為我們的股東創造更多價值。

Additionally, our direct-to-consumer deposits continue to grow steadily, increasing to $7.9 billion at the end of the quarter, up 13% year over year. It is notable that we are approaching the $8 billion mark when just five years ago, our deposit. The program was just over $1 billion in balances. Credit sales grew 1% year over year in the first quarter, driven by higher general purpose spending and overall transaction volume, with low gas prices helping to bolster consumers' discretionary purchasing power.

此外，我們的直接面向消費者的存款持續穩定成長，本季末增至 79 億美元，年增 13%。值得注意的是，五年前我們的存款還只有 80 億美元，現在我們已經接近這個數字。該計劃的餘額剛剛超過10億美元。第一季信貸銷售額年增 1%，這得益於一般用途支出和整體交易量的增加，而低油價有助於增強消費者的可自由支配購買力。

Midway through April, we are seeing solid growth year over year due to the timing of Easter spend pushed by March into April, coupled with the likely accelerated purchases as consumers anticipate future price increases on things like electronics, home furnishings, and autopots. The risk of economic weakness continues to grow, as evidenced by the uncertainty reflected in sharply lower consumer and small business confidence and sentiment.

四月中旬，我們看到年比穩定成長，這是因為復活節消費從三月推遲到四月，再加上消費者預期未來電子產品、家居用品和汽車用品等價格上漲，購買量可能會加速。經濟疲軟的風險持續增加，消費者和小型企業信心和情緒急劇下降所反映的不確定性就證明了這一點。

We are closely monitoring consumer reaction to tariffs, trade policy, and broader concerns, including advancing near-term purchases ahead of potential price increases, which could reduce future spend, giving expected higher inflation. Policy shifts around regulation, including the US District courts recently vacating the CFP. Late fee rule may benefit our industry longer term and the economy as a whole. However, in the near term, risks associated with tariffs, trade policies, and inflation may adversely impact consumer strength. We will continue to monitor economic and consumer financial health closely and remain disciplined with our credit risk management approach.

我們正在密切關註消費者對關稅、貿易政策和更廣泛擔憂的反應，包括在潛在價格上漲之前提前進行近期購買，這可能會減少未來的支出，從而導致預期通膨上升。政策圍繞著監管發生轉變，包括美國地方法院最近撤銷了 CFP。滯納金規則可能會對我們的產業和整個經濟產生長期好處。然而，短期內，關稅、貿易政策和通膨相關的風險可能會對消費實力產生不利影響。我們將繼續密切關注經濟和消費者財務狀況，並嚴格執行我們的信用風險管理方法。

We are seeing positive results from our credit management strategy as our ongoing prudent underwriting, disciplined credit line management, and product diversification actions improve credit performance trends. These trends help offset consumer credit pressures attributed to challenging macroeconomic conditions. We are pleased with our new partner signing in the quarter, including today's card program announcement from crypto.com, further diversifying our portfolio industry verticals. We continue to compete and win new programs that expand our reach and offer growth opportunities.

我們的信貸管理策略正在取得積極成果，因為我們持續的審慎承保、嚴格的信貸額度管理和產品多樣化行動改善了信貸績效趨勢。這些趨勢有助於抵銷因宏觀經濟條件嚴峻而產生的消費信貸壓力。我們很高興在本季度簽署了新的合作夥伴協議，包括今天 crypto.com 發布的卡片計劃公告，這進一步豐富了我們的投資組合行業垂直領域。我們繼續競爭並贏得新的項目，以擴大我們的影響力並提供成長機會。

Our current pipeline remains robust with a mix of portfolio conversions and de novo opportunities. Across co-brand, private label, instalment lending, and diversified industries. We recently expanded our relationship with AAA to market deposits and personal loans to AAA members across North America. This is a great opportunity to offer a full suite of products across a loyal and expansive member base. Further, we continue to successfully renew programs with our existing brand partners, including extending our long-term agreement with Academy Sports, where we offer both our card and repay products.

我們目前的產品線依然強勁，包括投資組合轉換和全新機會。涉及聯合品牌、自有品牌、分期貸款和多元化產業。我們最近擴大了與 AAA 的關係，向北美各地的 AAA 會員推銷存款和個人貸款。這是一個向忠誠且廣泛的會員群體提供全套產品的絕佳機會。此外，我們繼續與現有品牌合作夥伴成功續約計劃，包括延長與 Academy Sports 的長期協議，我們向其提供卡片和還款產品。

Our strong renewal rate is a testament to our team's focus and dedication to delivering value to our brand partners and their customers. As always, we remain resolute and focused on responsible growth, discipline, capital allocation, and continued execution of our operational excellence efforts. These focus areas enable us to maintain flexibility to adapt to changing fiscal and monetary policy and the evolving regulatory landscape. In summary, we are well positioned to generate capital and cash flow, deliver strong returns, and create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders. Now we'll pass it over to Perry to review the financials in more detail.

我們強勁的續約率證明了我們團隊專注並致力於為我們的品牌合作夥伴及其客戶提供價值。像往常一樣，我們堅定不移地專注於負責任的成長、紀律、資本配置以及持續執行卓越營運工作。這些重點領域使我們能夠保持靈活性，以適應不斷變化的財政和貨幣政策以及不斷發展的監管環境。總而言之，我們有能力產生資本和現金流，實現強勁回報，並為股東創造可持續的長期價值。現在我們將交給佩里來更詳細地審查財務狀況。

Thanks, Ralph. Let's begin with slide 3, which provides our first quarter financial highlights. During the first quarter, credit sales of $6.1 billion increased 1% year to year, driven by higher general purpose spending. Average loans of $18.2 billion decreased 2%, primarily due to the macroeconomic environment throughout 2024, driving the lower consumer spending, higher gross losses, and tighter underwriting standards.

謝謝，拉爾夫。讓我們從幻燈片 3 開始，它提供了我們第一季的財務亮點。第一季度，信貸銷售額達 61 億美元，年增 1%，這得益於通用支出的增加。平均貸款額為 182 億美元，下降了 2%，這主要是由於 2024 年全年的宏觀經濟環境導致消費者支出下降、總損失增加以及承保標準收緊。

Revenue was $970 million in the quarter, down 2% year to year, primarily due to lower net interest income. Total non-interest expenses decreased $5 million or 1% driven by our enterprise-wide focus on operational excellence.

本季營收為 9.7 億美元，年減 2%，主要原因是淨利息收入下降。由於我們全企業注重卓越運營，非利息支出總額減少了 500 萬美元，即 1%。

Income from continuing operations increased $7 million primarily due to a lower provision for credit losses and lower total non-interest expenses, partially offset by a decline in finance charges and late fees. Looking at the financials in more detail on slide 4, total net interest income for the quarter decreased 4% year over year, primarily due to lower finance charges and late fees resulting from a lower average prime rate, lower delinquencies, and a gradual shift in risk and product mix leading to a lower proportion of private label accounts.

持續經營收入增加了 700 萬美元，主要原因是信貸損失準備金減少和非利息支出總額減少，但被財務費用和滯納金的下降部分抵消。在第 4 張投影片上更詳細地查看財務狀況，本季度的總淨利息收入同比下降 4％，主要是由於平均優惠利率較低、拖欠率較低以及風險和產品組合逐漸轉變導致的財務費用和滯納金降低，從而導致私人品牌帳戶的比例較低。

Non-interest income was up $25 million which was primarily the result of our more recent paper statement pricing changes. Total non-interest expenses decreased $5 million or 1%. The decline was primarily driven by a $15 million decrease in other expenses, which includes prior year debt extinguishment costs, as well as a $4 million decrease in card and processing expenses due primarily to reduced volume related to card and statement costs.

非利息收入增加了 2500 萬美元，這主要是由於我們最近對紙本報表定價進行了調整。非利息支出總額減少 500 萬美元，即 1%。下降的主要原因是其他費用減少了 1500 萬美元，其中包括上一年的債務清償成本，以及卡片和處理費用減少了 400 萬美元，這主要歸因於與卡片和報表成本相關的交易量減少。

These were partially offset by a $7 million increase in information processing and communication expenses, which was driven by elevated software license renewal costs and a $7 million increase in marketing investment associated with expanded performance-based marketing and personalization capabilities, as well as incremental spend with new brand partner programs. We expect quarterly marketing expenses to build sequentially throughout 2025 in line with normal trends.

這些費用被資訊處理和通訊費用增加 700 萬美元部分抵消，這歸因於軟體授權續約成本的增加和與擴大基於績效的行銷和個人化功能相關的行銷投資增加 700 萬美元，以及新品牌合作夥伴計畫的增量支出。我們預計，2025 年全年季度行銷費用將按照正常趨勢逐年增加。

Pre-tax, pre-provision earnings, or PPNR decreased $16 million or 3%, primarily due to lower net interest income. Turn to slide 5. Both loan yield of 26.5% and that interest margin of 18.1% were higher sequentially following the seasonal trend of decreasing transactor balances from fourth quarter holiday spending.

稅前、撥備前收益或 PPNR 減少 1,600 萬美元或 3%，主要原因是淨利息收入減少。翻到幻燈片 5。由於第四季假期消費導致交易者餘額下降，貸款收益率和利息差均連續上升，分別為 26.5% 和 18.1%。

Net interest margin, which decreased 60 basis points year over year, continued to be impacted by a lower average prime rate, lower build late fees from lower delinquencies, and a shift in mix toward co-brand products partially offset by our implementation of pricing changes.

淨利差同比下降 60 個基點，繼續受到平均優惠利率下降、拖欠率降低導致的滯納金減少以及向聯合品牌產品組合轉變的影響，但我們實施的價格調整部分抵消了這些影響。

On the funding side, we are seeing funding costs decrease as savings accounts, and new term CD rates decline with lower Fed and US treasury rates. Note that pricing of our retail CD portfolio, which comprises over half of our direct to consumer deposits, will lag the rate changes in both our savings portfolio and the overall loan portfolio.

在融資方面，我們看到隨著儲蓄帳戶和新定期存單利率隨著聯準會和美國國債利率的下降而下降，融資成本正在下降。請注意，我們的零售 CD 組合（占我們直接面向消費者存款的一半以上）的定價將落後於我們的儲蓄組合和整體貸款組合的利率變化。

Looking at the bottom right chart, you can see that our funding mix continues to improve, fueled by growth in direct to consumer deposits, which increased to $7.9 billion at quarter end. Direct to consumer deposits accounted for 43% of our average total funding, up from 36% a year ago. Conversely, wholesale deposits decreased from 37% to 29% year over year.

查看右下角的圖表，您可以看到我們的融資組合繼續改善，這得益於直接面向消費者的存款的成長，季度末增加到 79 億美元。直接面向消費者的存款占我們平均總資金的 43%，高於一年前的 36%。相反，批發存款年減了 37% 至 29%。

Slide 6 highlights the progress we have made, strengthening our balance sheet. During the first quarter, we completed a $400 million subordinated notes offering which increased our tier 2 capital. This transaction improved our total risk-based capital ratio by more than 200 basis points. Our prudent capital allocation actions over the past five years, focusing on paying down debt and building capital allowed us to accelerate the execution of this transaction, which proved timely, given the strong debt market and investor demand in early March. This successful transaction was a key step in optimizing our capital stack as we discussed at our Investor Event in June of last year.

投影片 6 重點介紹了我們所取得的進展，增強了我們的資產負債表。在第一季度，我們完成了 4 億美元的次級票據發行，這增加了我們的二級資本。此交易使我們的總風險資本比率提高了200多個基點。過去五年來，我們採取了審慎的資本配置行動，重點是償還債務和積累資本，這使我們能夠加快執行此次交易，鑑於 3 月初強勁的債務市場和投資者需求，事實證明這是及時的。正如我們在去年 6 月的投資者活動上所討論的那樣，這次成功的交易是我們優化資本堆疊的關鍵一步。

Additionally, in March and April, we opportunistically completed our $150 million board authorized share repurchase program with $3.2 million total shares repurchased at an average price approximately 5% below our current tangible book value per share.

此外，在三月和四月，我們抓住機會完成了董事會授權的 1.5 億美元股票回購計劃，共回購了價值 320 萬美元的股票，平均價格比我們目前每股有形賬面價值低約 5%。

We remain confident in the intrinsic value of our company and the financial resilience of our business model. We have a proven track record of accreting capital and generating strong cash flow through challenging economic environments. We are well positioned from a capital liquidity and reserve perspective, providing stability and flexibility to successfully navigate an ever-changing economic environment while delivering value to our shareholders.

我們仍然對公司的內在價值和商業模式的財務彈性充滿信心。我們在充滿挑戰的經濟環境中累積資本並產生強勁現金流方面有著良好的記錄。從資本流動性和儲備的角度來看，我們處於有利地位，提供穩定性和靈活性，以成功應對不斷變化的經濟環境，同時為股東創造價值。

From a liquidity perspective, total liquid assets and undrawn credit facilities were $7.4 billion in the first quarter of 2025, up from $7.1 billion a year ago, representing 33% of total assets. At quarter end, deposits made up 72% of our total funding, with the majority resulting from direct-to-consumer deposits.

從流動性角度來看，2025 年第一季流動資產總額和未提取信貸額度為 74 億美元，高於去年同期的 71 億美元，佔總資產的 33%。截至季末，存款占我們總資金的 72%，其中大部分來自直接面向消費者的存款。

Moving to the capital ratio walks on the upper right of the slide. In addition to the more than 200 basis points, positive impact on our total risk-based capital from our sub-ordinated debt issuance during the past 12 months, our capital ratios were impacted by the repurchase of $146 million of common shares, as well as the repurchase of the majority of our convertible notes, including the repurchase of $7 million in principal value in the first quarter of 2025, leaving only $3 million outstanding.

移至投影片右上方的資本比率。除了過去 12 個月內發行的次級債券對我們的總風險資本產生超過 200 個基點的正面影響外，我們的資本比率還受到 1.46 億美元普通股回購以及大部分可轉換票據回購的影響，其中包括 2025 年第一季回購 700 萬美元的本金，僅剩 300 萬美元未償還。

Notably, the last Cecil phase-in adjustment occurred in the first quarter of 2025, resulting in an approximate 70 basis point reduction to our ratios. Together, the impact from the last Cecil phase-in adjustment and the convertible notes repurchase was more than 170 basis points. Looking ahead, the Cecil phase-in is complete, and the $3 million in outstanding convertible notes should not have a material future impact on our ratios. As a result, we are well positioned to allocate more of our capital and sustainable cash flow generation towards supporting responsible, profitable growth and generating value and returns for our shareholders.

值得注意的是，上一次塞西爾分階段調整發生在 2025 年第一季度，導致我們的比率降低了約 70 個基點。上次塞西爾分階段調整和可轉換票據回購的影響總計超過 170 個基點。展望未來，塞西爾的分階段實施已經完成，300 萬美元的未償還可轉換票據不會對我們的比率產生重大影響。因此，我們有能力分配更多的資本和可持續的現金流，以支持負責任的獲利成長，並為股東創造價值和回報。

At the bottom of the slide, you can see our capital metrics at the end of the quarter with CET1 and tier 1 ratios at 12.0% and total risk-based capital at 15.5%, all nearing the target ranges we provided during our Investor Day. We monitor these metrics both on a spot basis and an average rolling four quarter forward-looking basis, which includes the current quarter and the next three quarters projections.

在投影片的底部，您可以看到本季末的資本指標，其中 CET1 和一級資本比率為 12.0%，總風險資本為 15.5%，兩者都接近我們在投資者日期間提供的目標範圍。我們以現貨和平均滾動四個季度的前瞻性基礎來監控這些指標，其中包括當前季度和未來三個季度的預測。

Finally, our total loss absorption capacity comprised a total tangible common equity plus credit reserves ended the quarter at 25.3% of total loans, an increase of 40 basis points from a year ago demonstrating a strong margin of safety should more adverse economic conditions arise.

最後，我們的總損失吸收能力包括總有形普通股權益加上信貸準備金，本季末佔總貸款的 25.3%，比去年同期增加了 40 個基點，顯示如果出現更不利的經濟條件，我們具有強大的安全邊際。

Moving to credit on slide 7, our delinquency rate for the first quarter was 5.9%, down 30 basis points from last year and flat sequentially. Our net loss rate was 8.2%, also down 30 basis points from last year, and up 20 basis points sequentially, better than normal seasonal trends and better than our original expectation for the quarter.

轉到第 7 張投影片的信貸，我們第一季的拖欠率為 5.9%，比去年下降了 30 個基點，與上一季持平。我們的淨虧損率為 8.2%，也比去年下降了 30 個基點，比上一季上升了 20 個基點，優於正常的季節性趨勢，也好於我們對本季的最初預期。

We are starting to observe favorable trends in our late-stage roll rates and continue to benefit from our multi-year credit tightening actions. While encouraged by our first quarter improvement in credit results, declining consumer sentiment and ongoing concerns around tariffs and trade policy have lowered baseline macroeconomic outlooks.

我們開始觀察到後期展期率的良好趨勢，並繼續受益於我們多年的信貸緊縮行動。儘管第一季信貸業績改善令我們感到鼓舞，但消費者信心下降以及對關稅和貿易政策的持續擔憂降低了宏觀經濟前景。

The emerging macro concerns largely offset the improved credit results, resulting in a reserve rate of 12.2%, a slight improvement year over year and in line with the third quarter of 2024. As we have for the past few years, we continue to maintain prudent weightings of the economic scenarios in our credit reserve modeling, given the wide range of potential macroeconomic outcomes.

新出現的宏觀擔憂在很大程度上抵消了信貸業績的改善，導致準備金率為 12.2%，年比略有改善，與 2024 年第三季持平。正如過去幾年一樣，考慮到潛在的宏觀經濟結果的多樣性，我們繼續在信貸儲備模型中對經濟情景保持審慎的權重。

Reflective of our ongoing efforts to manage credit risk exposure as well as a more diversified product mix, our percentage of cardholders with a 660 plus prime score improved by 100 basis points over last year to 57%, well above pre-pandemic levels. We will continue to proactively adjust as necessary to protect our balance sheet, help our consumers navigate the current uncertainty, and ensure we are appropriately compensated for the risk we take.

由於我們不斷努力管理信用風險敞口以及更加多樣化的產品組合，我們擁有 660 以上優質信用評分的持卡人比例比去年提高了 100 個基點，達到 57%，遠高於疫情前的水平。我們將繼續根據需要主動調整，以保護我們的資產負債表，幫助我們的消費者應對當前的不確定性，並確保我們因承擔的風險而獲得適當的補償。

Turning to slide 8, our 2025 outlook is reflective of the changing and widening range of economic scenarios. Currently, we expect more modest baseline economic growth driven by slower than previously forecasted retail sales growth, still elevate inflation with a generally healthy labor market.

轉到投影片 8，我們對 2025 年的展望反映了不斷變化和擴大的經濟情景。目前，我們預計，受零售額成長低於先前預測的推動，基線經濟成長將更為溫和，但通膨仍將上升，且勞動力市場整體健康。

With greater anticipated economic volatility, we are prepared for a wide range of outcomes. This updated guidance is based on what we know currently about consumer health policy, and overall macroeconomic conditions and is subject to market and policy conditions going forward.

隨著預期的經濟波動加劇，我們已經做好了應對各種結果的準備。此更新指南是基於我們目前對消費者健康政策和整體宏觀經濟狀況的了解，並受未來市場和政策條件的影響。

Based largely on the updated macroeconomic expectations, we now expect 2025 average loans to be flat to slightly down. This is based on expected impacts on consumer spending combined with our strategic credit tightening actions and elevated gross losses and influenced further by our visibility into our pipeline and existing programs.

主要基於更新的宏觀經濟預期，我們現在預計 2025 年平均貸款將持平或略有下降。這是基於對消費者支出的預期影響，結合我們的策略性信貸緊縮行動和增加的總損失，並進一步受到我們對我們的管道和現有計劃的可見性的影響。

Our outlook for total revenue, excluding gains on portfolio sales is anticipated to be flat to slightly up after adjusting for our updated loan guidance. As a result of implemented pricing changes partially offset by interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve, lower bill late fees, and a continued shift in risk and product mix. We would expect industry pricing changes to remain in place as appropriate as the industry monitors ever-changing macroeconomic and regulatory conditions.

在根據我們更新的貸款指南進行調整後，我們預計總收入（不包括投資組合銷售收益）將持平或略有上升。由於實施的價格變化，部分被聯準會降息、帳單滯納金降低以及風險和產品組合的持續轉變所抵消。我們預計，隨著行業監測不斷變化的宏觀經濟和監管條件，行業定價變化將保持適當。

From an interest rate perspective, our outlook assumes multiple reductions in the federal funds rate in the second half of 2025, which will further pressure total net interest margin as we remain slightly asset sensitive.

從利率角度來看，我們的展望假設聯邦基金利率在 2025 年下半年將多次下調，這將進一步給總淨利差帶來壓力，因為我們對資產仍然略顯敏感。

As a result of efficiencies gained from operational excellence initiatives along with disciplined expense management and prudent investments, we expect to generate nominal full year positive operating leverage in 2025, excluding portfolio sales and the pre-tax impact from our repurchased convertible notes.

由於卓越營運計畫帶來的效率提升以及嚴格的費用管理和審慎的投資，我們預計 2025 年全年將產生名義上的正營運槓桿，不包括投資組合銷售和回購可轉換票據的稅前影響。

We continue to anticipate a year over year net loss rate in the 8.0% to 8.2% range for 2025. We expect the net loss rate in the second quarter to remain elevated before declining seasonally in the third quarter. As a reminder, the customer friendly hurricane actions we took in October and November of 2024 will result in a modest shift of losses from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025, negatively impacting the second quarter losses by approximately $13 million.

我們繼續預期 2025 年年淨虧損率將在 8.0% 至 8.2% 之間。我們預計第二季淨虧損率將保持在高位，然後在第三季季節性下降。提醒一下，我們在 2024 年 10 月和 11 月採取的客戶友好型颶風行動將導致損失從 2024 年第四季度適度轉移到 2025 年第二季度，對第二季度的損失產生約 1300 萬美元的負面影響。

Given the macroeconomic uncertainty that still exists in for 2025, we remain vigilant around credit policy and are closely monitoring potential impacts from higher tariff-driven inflation. With a still generally healthy labor market, we remain confident in maintaining our original lost guidance.

鑑於2025年仍然存在宏觀經濟不確定性，我們對信貸政策保持警惕，並密切關注關稅上升引發的通膨的潛在影響。由於勞動市場整體依然健康，我們仍有信心維持最初的虧損指引。

Finally, our full year normalized effective tax rate is expected to be in the range of 25% to 26%, with quarter over quarter variability due to the timing of certain discrete items. In closing, regardless of the macroeconomic environment, we remain confident in our ability to deliver solid results and generate capital by leveraging our resilient business model. Operator, we are now ready to open up the lines for questions.

最後，我們預計全年標準化有效稅率將在 25% 至 26% 之間，由於某些離散項目的時間差異，季度間可能會有所差異。最後，無論宏觀經濟環境如何，我們仍然有信心透過利用我們具有彈性的商業模式來取得穩健的業績並創造資本。接線員，我們現在可以開始解答您的疑問了。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Sanjay Sakwani, KBW.

謝謝。（操作員指示）Sanjay Sakwani，KBW。

Thank you, good morning, and appreciate all the commentary. Obviously, credit trends continue to perform well as Perry you mentioned, but the macro backdrop is choppy. Could you just talk about, what exactly you're seeing underneath if you peel the onion a little bit in terms of payment behavior, just credit trends, how the state of the consumer is for you real time? And then maybe Perry, just talk about how you've incorporated that into your baseline for the reserve?

謝謝，早上好，謝謝所有的評論。顯然，正如您所提到的佩里，信貸趨勢繼續表現良好，但宏觀背景卻不穩定。您能否談談，如果您從支付行為、信用趨勢等方面稍微了解一下，您到底看到了什麼，消費者的即時狀況如何？然後也許佩里，只是談論你如何將其納入儲備基線？

Yeah, thanks, Sanjay. Yeah, a lot's going on right now with the economy, broadly, I think we're very encouraged with what we're seeing with our consumers and their payment patterns, and you see that in our credit quality results continuing to improve more broadly though with the economy. That's the piece where I think the key word of the month is uncertainty. And so when we look at it broadly with the economy, I think there's been a lot of sentiment or soft data that's had some dramatic declines over the past couple of months, and that's going to influence some of the consumer behavior that we're seeing.

是的，謝謝，桑傑。是的，目前經濟情勢大有改觀，整體而言，我們對消費者及其支付模式的改善感到非常鼓舞，而且您會看到，隨著經濟情勢的改善，我們的信用品質也在持續改善。我認為本月的關鍵字是不確定性。因此，當我們從宏觀角度看待經濟時，我認為過去幾個月許多情緒或軟數據都出現了急劇下降，這將影響我們所看到的一些消費者行為。

But the hard data, which we look at is still pointing to a solid economy. So our consumers that we serve, I think, are benefiting from that with unemployment remaining low, wage growth is above 3%, and that's ahead of what's happening with inflation. March inflation continues to show some improvement, which is the one thing we've talked about for the consumers we serve that matters where core inflation is below 3% for the first time since early 2021.

但我們看到的硬數據仍然顯示經濟穩健。因此，我認為，我們所服務的消費者將從中受益，因為失業率保持在低位，薪資成長率超過 3%，而且高於通貨膨脹率。3 月通膨率持續改善，這是我們為所服務的消費者談論的一件重要的事情，核心通膨率自 2021 年初以來首次低於 3%。

So with the wage growth and slowing inflation, these were positive signs. So that's been good. You are seeing some, movement in credit sales where people are buying ahead a little bit. But the challenge that we're seeing now and you're seeing reflected in the broader markets and in some earnings, it's much like the pandemic where a lot of the economic progress that we've been seeing could stall and possibly be artificially depressed through policy.

因此，薪資成長和通貨膨脹放緩都是正面的訊號。這很好。您會看到一些信用銷售的動向，人們正在提前購買一些商品。但我們現在看到的挑戰，以及您在更廣泛的市場和一些收益中看到的挑戰，很像這場大流行，我們所看到的許多經濟進步可能會停滯不前，甚至可能因政策而受到人為抑制。

And so, with the pandemic was a shutdown, now it's primarily tariffs and what the downstream impacts could be on higher inflation and potentially lower business investment due to all this uncertainty. So the government's been clear on what their intentions are to right size the government, address global trade issues, address national security and all that. But what this means is the normal leading indicators such as changing unemployment or US retail sales, wage growth, are not as addictive, the way we would like them to be. So the leading indicators may lag.

因此，由於疫情導致停擺，現在主要關注的是關稅，以及由於所有這些不確定性，其下游影響可能導致通膨上升，並可能降低商業投資。因此，政府已經明確表示了他們的意圖，即調整政府規模、解決全球貿易問題、解決國家安全問題等等。但這意味著，失業率變化、美國零售額、薪資成長等正常的領先指標並不像我們所希望的那樣具有吸引力。因此領先指標可能會落後。

And so that's where this is creating a lot of, I think, I mean these confusion, but certainly uncertainty. And the longer the uncertainty goes on and the tariffs linger and there's greater risk of the slowdown, that's what we're all trying to watch for. It's going to be some stipulation or a recession. Again, we're encouraged by, again, the past couple of days, a change in posture from the administration.

所以我認為這就造成了很多混亂，當然還有不確定性。不確定性持續的時間越長，關稅持續的時間越長，經濟放緩的風險就越大，這正是我們都在努力關注的。這將是某種規定或經濟衰退。再次，我們對過去幾天政府態度的轉變感到鼓舞。

But in the meantime, consumers are still going to have to probably buy ahead on some select imports. So we'll probably see some maybe improved retail sales in the near term, but on the back end, that could be problematic. So really for us, the speed of implementation and outcome of the tariff policies, and along with their efforts to deal with the tax cuts from 2017 and their goals on deregulation, all this is going to matter a lot to what happens with the overall health of the economy.

但同時，消費者可能仍需要事先購買一些精選進口商品。因此，我們可能會在短期內看到零售額有所改善，但從後端來看，這可能會有問題。因此，對我們來說，關稅政策的實施速度和結果，以及他們應對2017年減稅的努力和放鬆管制的目標，所有這些都對整體經濟的健康狀況至關重要。

So when we think about our guidance, we've incorporated the things that we know, in terms of traditional data, and then we'll track some alternative data to see if we can get a firm handle on the health of our consumers, their sentiment and purchasing, and what will happen with their payments. So until greater clarity exists, we're going to continue to take a conservative posture, stay disciplined with credit risk management strategies and that's very consistent with our responsible growth commitment.

因此，當我們考慮我們的指導時，我們已經融入了我們所知道的傳統數據，然後我們將追蹤一些替代數據，看看我們是否能夠牢牢掌握消費者的健康狀況、他們的情緒和購買情況，以及他們的付款將會發生什麼。因此，在情況更加明朗之前，我們將繼續採取保守的立場，嚴格執行信用風險管理策略，這與我們負責任的成長承諾非常一致。

And you see that reflected you about our reserve, that's predominantly how we address the reserve. It's -- we saw some improvement in the, I'll say, the top line inputs with credit quality improving. So when you think about the portfolio, it's the best view we have with the line of sight we have into the current portfolio and the economic landscape. We do maintain a -- we'll say, a prudent risk overlay. We do proactively look ahead at the future potential weakness by maintaining an outsized weighting of adverse and severely adverse scenarios, which is what the Cecil economic risk overlays help us to achieve.

您會發現這反映了我們的儲備，這主要是我們處理儲備的方式。我們看到了一些改善，我想說，隨著信貸品質的提高，頂線投入有所改善。因此，當您考慮投資組合時，這是我們對當前投資組合和經濟狀況的最佳視角。我們確實保持了——我們會說，審慎的風險覆蓋。我們確實會透過保持對不利和嚴重不利情景的超大權重來主動展望未來的潛在弱點，而這正是塞西爾經濟風險覆蓋幫助我們實現的。

So I'd say if delinquency. Continues to improve and economic trends improve, which was a path I think we were on, we'd expect a slow gradual improvement in the reserve rate. But at this point, the reserve rate will likely remain more stable if weakness continues to creep into the baseline economic outlook, and that's what offset that improvement in credit quality this quarter.

所以我想說的是，如果是違法行為。持續改善，經濟趨勢改善，我認為這是我們走的路，我們預計儲備利率將緩慢逐步提高。但目前，如果疲軟繼續蔓延至基準經濟前景，那麼準備金率可能會保持更穩定，而這將抵消本季信貸品質的改善。

Got it. Thank you. And I guess is there an explicit unemployment rate assumption that you can average out to? And then I have the follow up for just Ralph, is obviously it seems like we're getting positive results on the late fee regulation not coming through, but there were mitigation efforts that you guys were planning to put through. Could you just talk about the conversations you're having with retailers? And you know what's factored in to the guide this year and how we should think about the sequencing going forward?

知道了。謝謝。我想，是否存在一個明確的失業率假設，可以讓你平均計算出來？然後我要跟進拉爾夫的情況，顯然我們在滯納金監管方面取得了積極成果，但你們計劃採取一些緩解措施。能談談您與零售商的對話嗎？您知道今年的指南考慮了哪些因素以及我們應該如何考慮未來的排序嗎？

So I'll take the first question or I'll take the second. So the scenarios do run some pretty high unemployment scenarios, but you can recall from the past conversations, a lot of the models do not really incorporate, I'll say, inflation and high interest well into them, but the weighting probably averages out to around 7% for unemployment waiting. So it is, I think we're well positioned for anything that could come.

那我將回答第一個問題或第二個問題。因此，這些情景確實會出現一些相當高的失業率情景，但你可以從過去的對話中回想一下，很多模型並沒有真正考慮到通貨膨脹和高利率，但失業等待的權重平均可能在 7% 左右。所以我認為我們已經做好了應對任何可能發生的事情的準備。

Yeah, hey, Sanjay, how are you? Our, obviously we're pleased with the outcome of the of the lengthy litigation that made sense to us. It was logical and feel pretty good about that the partners are too. Of course, we've worked with them and they've been very cooperative and collaborative in terms of changes we've had to make. At this point, we're not intending to roll back those changes and talk to the partners about that. And they're okay with where we are, particularly the rev share partners are particularly happy about that, and we'll continue to monitor it and most importantly, we look at the competitive landscape that we want to make competitive in the landscape, and that's very important to us too.

是的，嘿，桑傑，你好嗎？顯然，我們對這場漫長的訴訟的結果感到滿意，因為這對我們來說是合理的。這是合乎邏輯的，合作夥伴也對此感到很高興。當然，我們已經與他們合作過，而且在我們必須做出的改變方面，他們非常合作且通力合作。目前，我們並不打算撤銷這些變更並與合作夥伴討論此事。他們對我們現在的狀況感到滿意，特別是收益分成合作夥伴對此特別高興，我們將繼續監控它，最重要的是，我們關注競爭格局，我們希望在格局中保持競爭力，這對我們也非常重要。

And how's that in the numbers made Perry, like just as we think about the guy. Yeah, that is included in the guide at this point.

那麼從數字上看，佩里就像我們想像中的那個人一樣。是的，這已包含在指南中。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Moshe Orenbuch with TD Cohen.

Moshe Orenbuch 與 TD Cohen。

Great thanks. Perry, you talked about better late stage roll rates and its impact, positive impact on credit. To talk a little bit about maybe if you have thoughts as to what the underlying causes of that, is that just wage growth, exceeding inflation for a longer period of time? Is there something else going on? Is it vintage performance? And I guess, because we're all trying to think about this in the context of how to think about other changes that might happen positive and negative? And so any thoughts there would be most appreciated.

非常感謝。佩里，您談到了更好的後期展期率及其影響，對信貸的正面影響。稍微談談您是否考慮過這種現象的根本原因，這是否僅僅是薪資成長在較長時間內超過通貨膨脹？還有什麼事發生嗎？這是復古表演嗎？我想，因為我們都在試圖在如何看待可能發生的其他正面和負面變化的背景下思考這個問題？因此，任何想法都將受到高度讚賞。

Yeah, I think it's a combination of things. One, it's consumers as you said, wage growth outpacing inflation. So I think they're getting a handle on the new norm, and those that couldn't deal with it early on have charged off, and now you -- we're still, don't get me wrong. We still have elevated charge-offs, but that roll rate improvement, I think, is reflective of the better vintages that have been coming on. And that's -- we don't get me wrong, we're also still -- we still have elevated roll rates, but again, we're seeing some slow, gradual improvement in that, and that's encouraging. That's what we've been looking for. And I do think it's just simply a matter of wage growth and the better credit risk mix of newer vintages that we have.

是的，我認為這是多種因素共同作用的結果。首先，正如您所說，是消費者的薪資成長超過了通貨膨脹。所以我認為他們正在掌握新常態，那些一開始無法應付的人已經退出了，而現在你——我們仍然在，不要誤會我的意思。我們的沖銷額仍然較高，但我認為，滾動率的提高反映了即將到來的更好的年份。那是——我們不要誤會我的意思，我們仍然——我們的滾動率仍然在上升，但同樣，我們看到了緩慢、逐步的改善，這是令人鼓舞的。這就是我們一直在尋找的。我確實認為這只是工資增長和我們擁有的較新年份的更好的信用風險組合的問題。

Got it thanks and maybe to expand on the prior question on mitigants and partner discussions, it seems like to me that the partner business is probably a little bit insulated from direct competition, because in most of those accounts, they're not competing with every other account that's out there. But talk a little bit about, how your partners think about the interplay between pricing and growth here and value and growth and when you think about what you would likely do to kind of help increase profitability both for you and them as you as you kind of look out for the balance of this year and into next year?

明白了，謝謝，也許可以擴展先前關於緩解措施和合作夥伴討論的問題，在我看來，合作夥伴業務可能有點不受直接競爭的影響，因為在大多數這些帳戶中，他們並不與其他所有帳戶競爭。但請稍微談談，您的合作夥伴如何看待定價和成長以及價值和成長之間的相互作用，以及當您考慮您可能會做些什麼來幫助提高您和他們的盈利能力時，您是否在關註今年和明年的平衡？

Yeah. No, see, I was going to build upon what Ralph said earlier. It's -- and I think you said it well. There's the intersection of pricing, profitability, value proposition to the consumer, compensation to the partner that's important to them as well, and how do you find that intersection and what we found to date with the pricing changes that we're in the market so far is that we have not seen an immaterial impact to retail sales.

是的。不，你看，我打算根據拉爾夫之前說的話來繼續說下去。這是——我認為你說得很好。定價、獲利能力、對消費者的價值主張、對合作夥伴的補償等都存在交叉，這些對合作夥伴來說也很重要，你如何找到這個交叉點？到目前為止，我們發現，就我們目前在市場上的定價變化而言，我們還沒有看到對零售額產生非實質的影響。

So what it's done is it's allowed for some incremental profit share to the partner and, obviously for us, helping to maintain, I'll say a risk adjusted margin that's important in a period like we're in right now where we're still running a couple 100 base points higher than where we want to be on a loss standpoint.

因此，它的作用是允許合作夥伴獲得一些增量利潤份額，並且顯然對我們來說，有助於維持風險調整後的利潤率，這在我們現在所處的時期非常重要，因為我們的虧損水平仍然比我們想要的虧損水平高出幾百個基點。

So that's important for us to continue to underwrite, as deeply as we do, which is important to unlocking sales for them. So it's that -- it's a combination of things. So then as the credit environment improves and if the margin gets outsized in any one place or another, you continue to work with the partners for how we can invest more so into the value prop if that's the right place to go, because we're always trying to keep the value appropriate for customers and it works for the partner.

因此，對於我們來說，繼續進行盡可能深入的承保非常重要，這對於解鎖他們的銷售至關重要。所以這就是──它是多種因素的結合。因此，隨著信貸環境的改善，如果利潤率在任何一個地方變得過高，你就會繼續與合作夥伴合作，研究如何在正確的方向上加大對價值主張的投資，因為我們總是試圖保持適合客戶的價值，這對合作夥伴也是有用的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的傑夫·阿德爾森。

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. So we've heard a lot so far through this earnings season about how the consumer is resilient. There's been some, I think, mixed messaging on whether there's a pull-forward dynamic happening here.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。到目前為止，我們在本財報季已經聽到了很多關於消費者如何具有韌性的言論。我認為，關於這裡是否存在向前拉動的動態存在一些混合訊息。

But maybe just sort of thinking about the prior commentary in prior quarters about consumers trading down, are you still seeing any of that? Is it possible to strip that out? Or are there any other signs of consumer health you're seeing that you can point to trying to extrapolate out from what might be a pull-forward dynamic? Just anything under the hood there or what you're seeing by income or FICO cohort?

但也許只是想想前幾季關於消費者消費下降的評論，您是否仍然看到這些？有可能把它去掉嗎？或者，您是否看到了其他消費者健康狀況的跡象，可以從可能的提前動態中推斷出來？那裡有什麼隱藏的東西嗎？或者您透過收入或 FICO 群組看到了什麼？

I think when we look at it, it's -- I mean Ralph commented earlier, right, that there's -- we're seeing some of the improved spend partway through April, right? So you've got this -- Easter happened in April, which was in March last year, so you have that dynamic. But we are seeing with -- and we're seeing it more broadly across the industry is we're watching what the retail is seeing as well that there's -- the consumers are buying more electronics, home furnishing, auto parts are some categories that are getting pulled forward because those are ones which are expected to have some price increase.

我認為，當我們看一下它時，它是 - 我的意思是拉爾夫之前評論過，對吧 - 我們看到四月中旬支出有所改善，對吧？所以你明白了——復活節發生在四月，去年是在三月，所以你有這種動態。但我們在整個行業中更廣泛地看到，我們也在關注零售業的現狀，即消費者正在購買更多的電子產品、家居裝飾、汽車零件等，這些類別的商品價格預計會有所上漲。

I mean, if you've heard some CEOs today of a big company, they were saying that they're going to start some increased prices in the second half of the year, which is their fiscal year. So I think it's -- there are going to be price increases. And I think that's what consumers are going to need to navigate.

我的意思是，如果你今天聽到一些大公司的執行長說他們將在今年下半年（也就是他們的財政年度）開始提高價格。所以我認為價格將會上漲。我認為這正是消費者需要了解的。

Our consumers that we serve have done a really good job of navigating this the past few years. I mean they've been adjusting. I think we're perhaps more of the impact could be is on the higher-end consumers, and I say higher end meaning prime-plus to super-prime, where they start to pull back on T&E and -- or trying to figure out you're still going to buy that big TV or they're going to make some other choices if inflation comes through at some of the rates they could.

過去幾年來，我們所服務的消費者在這方面做得非常好。我的意思是他們一直在調整。我認為我們可能受到更大的影響是在高端消費者身上，我說的高端意味著從優質產品到超級優質產品，他們開始減少差旅和費用——或者試圖弄清楚你是否還會購買大電視，或者如果通貨膨脹率達到他們可能達到的水平，他們會做出其他選擇。

I mean that's the real wildcard here, and that goes back to my comment earlier on uncertainty. I think this is going to impact consumers up and down the Vantage scores or the risk scores. When you think about consumers who have been most impacted by, we'll call it, market volatility, it's not the lower-end consumer, it's not the near-prime consumer because they don't have big investments -- they're not big investment portfolios. They don't have necessarily as much homeownership.

我的意思是，這是真正的未知數，這又回到了我之前關於不確定性的評論。我認為這會對消費者的 Vantage 評分或風險評分產生影響。當您想到受市場波動影響最大的消費者時，他們不是低端消費者，也不是近高端消費者，因為他們沒有大筆投資——他們沒有大型投資組合。他們不一定擁有那麼多的房屋所有權。

So when you see what's happening in those markets, it's less impactful to them. But those consumers who are speaking about are most impacted by what's happening with the markets are ones that travel a lot, have big purchases, and you may start to see a pull-down in some of those luxury retailers.

因此，當你看到這些市場正在發生的事情時，你會發現它們受到的影響較小。但那些受市場變化影響最大的消費者是那些經常旅行、購買量很大的人，你可能會開始看到一些奢侈品零售商的銷售額下降。

Got it. And just to sort of circle back on the strategic credit tightening, can you help us understand what incremental actions you took this quarter, if any? I know you talked about the multiyear tightening there. Just wondering if you took further steps and that might be why you're taking down the loan growth a little bit for the guidance this year. Thanks.

知道了。回到策略性信貸緊縮問題，您能否幫助我們了解您本季採取了哪些漸進式措施（如果有的話）？我知道您談到了那裡多年的緊縮政策。只是想知道您是否採取了進一步的措施，這可能是為什麼您在今年的指導中稍微下調了貸款增長。謝謝。

No. I think what I'd say is we've maintained a very constant or consistent posture. We continue to make targeted adjustments, adjusting a segment where we believe could be at risk, where we'll look at acquisition or we'll have line assignment at acquisition or things like that or reactivation strategies. But there's nothing that is that material that happened in the quarter.

不。我想說的是，我們一直保持著非常穩定或一致的姿態。我們將繼續進行有針對性的調整，調整我們認為可能有風險的部分，我們將考慮收購，或在收購時進行線路分配或諸如此類的事情或重新啟動策略。但本季並沒有發生什麼重大事件。

What I'd say is representing always, obviously, is that when we now look to what's happening with this degree of uncertainty, I'd say that it's probably going to push off what would have been opportunities to begin some credit unwind actions, right? So we were really on the cusp of seeing good performance of the underlying portfolio. That was the first marker we said had to show itself was better consumer payment patterns of those that we have.

我想說的是，顯然，當我們現在看看在這種不確定性程度下發生的事情時，我想說，它可能會推遲原本可以採取一些信貸放鬆行動的機會，對嗎？因此，我們確實即將看到基礎投資組合的良好表現。這是我們所說的必須證明的第一個標誌，比我們現有的更好的消費者支付模式。

And when they demonstrate that and their overall debt management look good. And there's strength in delinquency improvement, that -- once you clear that gate, we were kind of on the way there. And we needed to see ongoing macro improvement, which was inflation, interest rates coming down, stability employment.

當他們證明這一點時，他們的整體債務管理看起來很好。犯罪行為改善方面有其優勢——一旦你跨過那道門檻，我們就已經在路上了。我們需要看到宏觀經濟持續改善，即通貨膨脹、利率下降、就業穩定。

Unfortunately, that one now just became a lot more uncertain. And if you think the curve could bend the other way on some of these, it just means we have to be prudent and very thoughtful about when it's an appropriate time to unwind some of the credit actions. Does that make sense?

不幸的是，現在情況變得更不確定了。如果你認為曲線可能會在某些方面向另一個方向彎曲，那就意味著我們必須謹慎並深思熟慮何時是取消某些信貸行動的適當時機。這樣有道理嗎？

It does. Thanks so much, Perry.

確實如此。非常感謝，佩里。

John Pancari, Evercore ISI.

約翰·潘卡里（John Pancari），Evercore ISI。

Just on the capital front, good to see the CET ratio -- CET1 ratio pretty solid at 12%. You completed the $150 million buyback authorization earlier than we thought. So maybe you can help us think how you're thinking about the pace of buybacks, particularly in the context of possibly slower balance sheet growth as you're alluding to?

就資本方面而言，很高興看到 CET 比率 - CET1 比率相當穩定，為 12%。您比我們想像的更早完成了 1.5 億美元的回購授權。那麼也許您可以幫助我們思考一下您對回購速度的看法，特別是在您提到的資產負債表成長可能放緩的背景下？

Yeah. So thank you for the question. Yeah, we are pleased to have executed the $150 million buyback when we did. Any time you can buy back your shares below tangible book value, that's a real positive. Look, as it relates to our capital priorities, it remains unchanged.

是的。謝謝你的提問。是的，我們很高興完成了 1.5 億美元的回購。任何時候，只要你能以低於有形帳面價值的價格回購股票，這都是一個真正的利好。你看，就我們的資本優先事項而言，它保持不變。

Supporting responsible, profitable growth, number one, investing in our technology, digital capabilities. But we still need to build and maintain our strong capital ratios, and then we do return to our capital shareholders. So that hasn't changed.

支持負責任的、獲利性的成長，首先，投資於我們的技術和數位能力。但我們仍然需要建立和維持強大的資本比率，然後我們才能回報我們的資本股東。所以這並沒有改變。

In terms of what's coming, you're right, it balances -- if balance growth isn't as strong as what we'd expect by the year -- by the end of the year, that will perhaps accrete more capital. We do look forward to what is coming out next year to make sure we have enough capital to support that. But we will discuss with our Board.

就未來而言，您說得對，如果到今年年底餘額成長不如我們預期的那麼強勁，那麼也許會累積更多的資本。我們確實期待明年的成果，以確保我們有足夠的資金來支持這一點。但我們會與董事會討論。

We have a couple of meetings coming up, one in May, one in June, and we'll figure out as we run more stress scenarios because things are changing, just making sure that we have a no-regret type of decision as it relates to capital usage, particularly buybacks because once the capital goes out the door, we then can't use it to support growth.

我們即將召開幾次會議，一次在五月，一次在六月，隨著情況的變化，我們將在運行更多的壓力情景時做出決定，確保我們在資本使用方面做出不會後悔的決定，特別是回購，因為一旦資本流出，我們就不能用它來支持增長。

So we've got to make sure we can care for all things I've previously mentioned. And we do look at our capital ratios. We look at a four-quarter forward view, as I mentioned. So it's the current quarter plus the next three. But we'll continue to do the right thing with capitals. I hope, you can see that we are trying to do.

因此我們必須確保我們能夠照顧到我之前提到的所有事情。我們確實關注我們的資本比率。正如我所提到的，我們著眼於未來四個季度的前景。所以它是當前季度加上接下來的三個季度。但我們將繼續用首都做正確的事。我希望，你能看到我們正在努力做的事情。

Okay. And then on the margin, solid expansion this quarter to about 18.1%. If you could just help us think about how we should think about the margin trajectory from here given the volatile rate environment. I know that might be challenging. But how could we think about it here?

好的。就利潤率而言，本季利潤率穩定擴張至約 18.1%。如果您能幫助我們思考一下，在利率波動的環境下，我們應該如何考慮未來的利潤軌跡。我知道這可能很有挑戰性。但我們在這裡怎麼思考這個問題呢？

I believe you had indicated previously, maybe as recent as January, the expected modest expansion in the margin, but I didn't see that noted in your outlook today. So curious how you think about the margin from here.

我相信您之前曾指出過，也許最近在 1 月份，預計利潤率會適度擴大，但我沒有在您今天的展望中看到這一點。我很好奇您如何看待這裡的利潤。

Yeah. There's going to be a lot of movements. I mean I'll still hold to what we said back in January, that we expect slight expansion in the margin for the full year. So when we think about the moving pieces in net interest margin, we'll go -- still feel cautiously optimistic that we'll be able to deliver that slight improvement. But there's some headwinds in there, right?

是的。將會有很多動作。我的意思是我仍然堅持我們在一月份說過的話，我們預計全年利潤率將略有擴大。因此，當我們考慮淨利差的變化因素時，我們仍然謹慎樂觀地認為我們能夠實現略微的改善。但其中還是存在一些阻力，對吧？

So the prime rate reductions are a headwind in that we are asset-sensitive. So we had 100 basis points of prime reductions in 2024 that come through in all '25. We still expect another 75 basis points of cut in the back half of '25. Now granted, some of those are later in the year, so they might not be as impactful.

因此，對於對資產敏感的我們來說，降低基準利率是一個不利因素。因此，我們在 2024 年將基本利率降低了 100 個基點，這在整個 25 年內都得以實現。我們仍預計2025年下半年將再降息75個基點。現在可以肯定的是，其中一些是在今年稍後發布的，因此其影響力可能不會那麼大。

As delinquency improves, as we're starting to see our early-stage delinquency improvement, that means we have lower billed late fees. We're continuing to see a shift in our new account product mix with the vintages we're putting on. There's more of a mix of co-brand and some proprietary card that has a little lower yield in it than private label. So that means you get a lower assigned APR and it comes with lower late fees.

隨著拖欠率的改善，我們開始看到早期拖欠率的改善，這意味著我們收取的滯納金減少了。隨著我們推出的葡萄酒年份的推移，我們新客戶的產品組合也在不斷變化。聯合品牌和一些專有卡的混合形式更多，其收益率比自有品牌略低。這意味著您可以獲得較低的指定 APR，並且滯納金也較低。

Tailwinds are the rollout of the pricing and policy change that we made in 2024 and continue to make in 2025. And then as your gross losses improve, you get less reversal of interest and fees.

順風是我們在 2024 年實施並將在 2025 年繼續實施的定價和政策變更。然後，隨著您的總損失的改善，您獲得的利息和費用的逆轉就會減少。

So that's again, a helper. But then the quarterly impacts are going to just move around and be kind of choppy. So you saw it in the first quarter, the holiday transactors paying down going into 1Q, 2Q, we had the timing of tax refunds and how much of that was going to be used to pay down debt. I think this year, we saw less of the pay down than what we were expecting. It was muted again.

所以這又是一個幫手。但季度影響將會波動且有些不穩定。因此，您在第一季就可以看到，假期交易者在第一季和第二季償還了債務，我們確定了退稅的時間以及其中有多少將用於償還債務。我認為今年我們看到的支付金額低於我們的預期。又靜音了。

The level of gross losses in which quarter matters to net interest margin and then the continued build of the pricing actions that we put in there and then the timing, as I mentioned earlier, of when does the prime rate changes occur and how does that impact us?

哪個季度的總損失水準對淨利差有影響，然後是我們在那裡採取的定價行動的持續構建，然後是時間，正如我之前提到的，優惠利率何時發生變化，以及這對我們有何影響？

So yeah, forecasting NIM is a little bit of a challenge. And I appreciate the question. But right now, I'd say, overall, we're still pretty confident that we'll see some slight improvement year-over-year despite the headwinds.

所以，預測 NIM 確實有點困難。我很感謝你提出這個問題。但現在我想說，總體而言，儘管面臨阻力，我們仍然非常有信心看到同比略有改善。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research Securities.

卡卡什 (Bill Carcache)，沃爾夫研究證券公司 (Wolfe Research Securities)。

Thank you. Good morning, Ralph and Perry. Following up on your commentary around the 7% peak unemployment waiting in your allowance, that's the most conservative assumption that we've heard. And so if we go down that path, seems likely that the Fed would be cutting pretty aggressively. But if we do start seeing unemployment rise, can you frame your ability to start lowering your reserve rate as losses are rising versus the likelihood that you would actually have to potentially build even more and that 7% weighting could go even higher?

謝謝。早上好，拉爾夫和佩里。關於您的津貼中等待的 7% 峰值失業率的評論，這是我們聽到的最保守的假設。因此，如果我們沿著這條路走下去，聯準會似乎很可能會大幅降息。但是，如果我們確實開始看到失業率上升，你能否在損失上升時開始降低準備金率，以及你實際上可能需要建立更多儲備金並且 7% 的權重可能會更高的可能性？

Yeah. Bill, I think the keyword of what I said, I think that we feel very confident in the way we've approached the reserve rate to date. I mean we are down 20 basis points versus this time last year, up only 30 basis points sequentially, which is basically seasonal. And we're back in line with the third quarter of last year despite what I would contend as now a more uncertain forward-looking macroeconomic environment.

是的。比爾，我認為我所說的關鍵字是，我認為我們對迄今為止的準備金利率處理方式非常有信心。我的意思是，與去年同期相比，我們下降了 20 個基點，但比上一季僅上升了 30 個基點，基本上是季節性的。儘管我認為目前的宏觀經濟環境更加不確定，但我們還是回到了去年第三季的水平。

And I can't speak to what others are seeing or doing or how they consumed, what I'll say, is the more recent macroeconomic outlooks. But a lot of the more recent ones are starting to show some signs of some baseline unemployment increases. So I think your question is spot on is that because of the way we have weighted the S3, S4, those more severe scenarios, as unemployment creeps into the baseline, you can dial back the weightings on those others because what we were caring for is going to manifest itself into more of the baseline. So for now, I'd say you should expect pretty stable reserve rate for 2Q.

我無法談論其他人看到了什麼、做了什麼或他們如何消費，我想說的是最近的宏觀經濟前景。但最近的許多調查開始顯示失業率上升的跡象。所以我認為你的問題是正確的，因為我們對 S3、S4 等更嚴重的情況進行了加權，隨著失業率逐漸上升到基線，你可以降低其他情況的權重，因為我們所關注的問題將會更多地體現在基線中。因此就目前而言，我認為第二季的準備率應該會相當穩定。

That's helpful. And then following up on your NIM commentary, are you putting on new originations at wider spreads currently or have spreads been pretty stable? Curious how the macro environment is affecting your decisions there?

這很有幫助。然後根據您對 NIM 的評論，您目前是否以更大的利差發起新的交易，還是利差已經相當穩定了？好奇宏觀環境如何影響您的決定？

And then sort of along the lines of the pricing discussion earlier, even though the ruling has been vacated, maybe if you could just share your thoughts on the risk that we could see a future administration come back another attempt at a cap.

然後，按照先前的定價討論思路，儘管裁決已經被撤銷，但您是否可以分享一下您對未來政府可能再次嘗試設定上限的風險的看法。

I'll take the first one and have Ralph talk about the potential this coming -- a new late fee regulation. So as we look at what's happening in there with the spread, the -- we price for risk at the time of underwriting. So if you have more co-brand, high, high quality, they're getting a lower price assigned. But yes, with the pricing changes we've made, the spread is a little bit more for, say, the new vintages, but it's caring for the risk environment that we're in right now because they do a good job of projecting different loss rates. They stress those loss rates, make sure the accounts will be profitable under different loss rate scenarios, and similarly, that the pricing that's in the back book, that just takes -- as we talked about before, those take a long time to burn into the balance because of payment hierarchy.

我將回答第一個問題，讓拉爾夫談​​談即將出台的一項新滯納金規定。因此，當我們觀察利差的情況時，我們會在承保時對風險進行定價。因此，如果您擁有更多聯名品牌、高品質產品，他們就會獲得更低的價格。但是，是的，隨著我們所做的價格調整，對於新年份的葡萄酒來說，價差會稍微大一些，但這是為了照顧我們目前所處的風險環境，因為他們在預測不同的損失率方面做得很好。他們強調這些損失率，確保帳戶在不同的損失率情境下都能獲利，同樣，帳簿中的定價只是——正如我們之前談到的，由於支付等級制度，這些定價需要很長時間才能計入餘額。

Yeah. So as I said, we were pleased with the decision. I mean we've got 3.5 more years of this administration. So it's not imminent, what's going to happen. I think the way that the opinion was written, it makes it very difficult to make that logical going forward.

是的。正如我所說，我們對這個決定感到滿意。我的意思是本屆政府還能執政 3.5 年。所以，什麼事情都不會很快發生。我認為，該意見的寫作方式使得其很難在未來的邏輯上得以實施。

I think opinion was written very well. It was laid out. It was consistent and logical. And I think any administration would have a tough time reinstituting the late fee.

我認為意見寫得很好。它被佈置好了。這是一致且合乎邏輯的。我認為任何政府都會很難恢復滯納金。

Very helpful, thank you.

非常有幫助，謝謝。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Hey, thank you, good morning. Maybe to just follow up on the roll rate comment. Any color you can kind of provide on the magnitude of the improvements you're kind of seeing across your FICO buckets and maybe like how sustainable that is? You obviously maintained your charge-off guide for the year, so maybe just help us reconcile that.

嘿，謝謝，早安。也許只是為了跟進滾動率的評論。您能否提供一些細節，說明您在 FICO 儲存桶中看到的改進程度以及這種改進的可持續性？您顯然保留了今年的沖銷指南，所以也許可以幫助我們調和這一點。

Yeah. So we're seeing, again, modest improvements across all the roll rates. It's a slow gradual improvement. And I wouldn't say there's a distinction by risk band with that. I mean we look at it in aggregate, we look at it more micro.

是的。因此，我們再次看到所有滾動率都有適度改善。這是一個緩慢漸進的改善過程。我不會說這其中有風險區間的區別。我的意思是我們從整體上看它，從更微觀的角度看它。

But we do look at payment behaviors at a very segmented level. And we're seeing some good signs of gradual improvement. So this isn't going to be a cliff type of improvement. It's just going to be slow and steady. So I think that's the way to think about roll rates at this point.

但我們確實在非常細分的層面上看待支付行為。我們看到了一些逐步改善的良好跡象。所以這不會是懸崖式的進步。這只是緩慢而穩定地進行。所以我認為這就是現在思考滾動率的方式。

Got it. Okay. And then you reduced your loan growth guide for the year. Maybe can you just talk about how that kind of impacts the phasing of your mitigants, particularly the APR piece?

知道了。好的。然後你降低了今年的貸款成長指南。也許您能談談這對您的緩解措施的分階段實施有何影響，特別是 APR 部分？

So we slightly reduced the loan guide. So I don't -- there's really not much of an impact to the mitigants. It just means there'll be slower new accounts building in the vintage. But also, it's more -- it's a little bit of the new accounts. It's also a little bit of, I'll say, spend softness that we're expecting on the back book as people have to contend with these -- the higher costs for other goods and services.

因此我們稍微減少了貸款指南。所以我認為——這對緩解措施確實沒有太大影響。這只是意味著新帳戶的建立速度會比較慢。但同時，它更多的是——它是一些新帳戶。我想說的是，我們預計後期支出會出現一些疲軟，因為人們必須應對其他商品和服務成本的上漲。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America

Mihir Bhatia，美國銀行

Good morning, Ralph and Perry. Just had one quick follow-up here. On the pull-forward effect that you talked about, obviously, we've heard that from other companies. But any way to quantify that, like maybe you have some month-to-date spending stats?

早上好，拉爾夫和佩里。這裡只是進行了一次快速跟進。關於您談到的前拉效應，顯然，我們從其他公司聽說過。但是有沒有什麼方法可以量化這一點，例如也許您有一些本月迄今為止的支出統計數據？

Are you seeing like a 1%, 2% increase? Because I think you also mentioned you might see a little bit of a benefit here in 2Q of higher purchase volume before things -- you start having to give back. So just wondering what you're seeing in the data from a quantitative side.

您看到 1% 或 2% 的成長了嗎？因為我認為您也提到過，您可能會在第二季度看到購買量增加帶來的一些好處，然後您才開始回饋。所以只是想知道您從定量的角度看到了什麼數據。

So yeah, it's hard to quantify with precision. What you say is the pull-forward of future spend. Again, what we saw is a couple of things that stood out a little bit of higher purchase of some electronics and some auto parts and a little bit of pullback in T&E.

是的，很難精確量化。您說的是未來支出的提前。再次，我們看到了一些突出的情況：一些電子產品和汽車零件的購買量略有增加，而差旅和費用則略有下降。

So you see a little of that mix shift going on in the quarter, more so -- and it's hard to decouple some of that as well, what we're seeing in April to date because you do have the timing of Easter that I think is worth like 60 basis points of growth or whatever it is in the -- that will be worth that for the quarter.

因此，您會看到本季度發生了一些組合變化，更重要的是 - 並且很難將其中的一些變化分開，我們在 4 月份迄今為止所看到的情況，因為您確實有復活節的時間，我認為它的價值相當於 60 個基點的增長，或者無論它是多少 - 這對本季度來說都是值得的。

So I wish I could give you more insight on that. It's early. We continue to monitor it. And that's why we're cautious about what that means for the full year because it could be a little bit of a head fake, meaning that consumers are pulling through, you don't want to extrapolate that a little bit of higher spend we're seeing now to say that's going to be a full year trend.

所以我希望能夠給你更多關於這一點的見解。現在還早。我們將繼續監測此事。這就是為什麼我們對這對全年的影響持謹慎態度，因為這可能有點虛假，意味著消費者正在渡過難關，你不想推斷我們現在看到的略微更高的支出就意味著這將成為全年的趨勢。

And I think we're seeing it as we stay -- in terms of staying on top of what others are seeing in the industry. And retailers are also saying the same thing, and you're hearing it anecdotally from consumers and surveys that there's a decent percentage that are pulling forward purchases and a little bit of I'm going to call it panic buy, but it is a little bit of that happening because of what could be 30% to 70% tariff impact on goods and services when you look at the mix of what -- where retailers get their goods from.

我認為，我們能夠始終關注這個問題——始終領先於業內其他人所看到的情況。零售商也在說同樣的話，你可以從消費者和調查中聽到傳聞，有相當一部分人正在提前購買，我稱之為恐慌性購買，但這種情況之所以發生，是因為當你查看零售商的商品來源時，關稅可能會對商品和服務產生 30% 到 70% 的影響。

Got it. And then just one quick other one -- might not be quick. In terms of the guidance and the outlook, you talked -- we've talked quite a bit about across -- I think across issuers about the hard data being reasonably decent but the soft data and sentiment indicators being weak. Can you just talk about some of the levers you would be pulling if you start seeing the hard data follow the sentiment data?

知道了。然後只快速地再做一個——可能不會很快。就指導和展望而言，您談到了——我們已經談論了很多——我認為發行人認為硬數據相當不錯，但軟數據和情緒指標較弱。如果您開始看到硬數據跟隨情緒數據，您能否談談您會採取哪些措施？

Yeah. So I kind of opened up with a little bit of commentary on the economy, and that is consistent, right? I think we're all seeing the same thing, that the hard data is really pretty strong and was on a good trajectory.

是的。因此，我開始對經濟發表一些評論，這是一致的，對嗎？我認為我們都看到了同一件事，那就是硬數據確實非常強勁，並且處於良好的發展軌跡。

At this point, it would mean, one, continuing to maintain what I say is a conservative credit posture that we have today. It would mean that you would see a slower improvement in our credit metrics that we've been seeing some nice improvements that have been, I think, at a faster pace than what you've seen across the general industry.

從這一點來說，這意味著，第一，繼續維持我們目前所說的保守的信貸姿態。這意味著你會看到我們的信用指標改善得比較慢，我們已經看到了一些不錯的改善，而且我認為，這些改善的速度比整個產業都要快。

And again, it would then pull through into perhaps slower spend, but then payment rates would slow. So you have a little bit lower loans from origination slowing. You'd have a little bit slower payment rates would push some balances back up. So there's a whole lot of things happening in there. But I don't -- for what we're seeing, again, our consumers have been dealing with three years now of elevated inflation, and I think we've seen it would be a similar scenario.

再次，它可能會導致支出速度放緩，但支付率也會下降。因此，貸款發放速度會稍微慢一些。您的付款速度會稍微慢一些，從而推高一些餘額。所以那裡發生了很多事情。但我認為——就我們所看到的情況而言，我們的消費者已經經歷了三年的高通膨，我認為我們已經看到了類似的情況。

It just means more of this -- basically more of the same for our consumers. But this is what they've had to deal with, where things are up 25% over the past four years in terms of inflation. It really would be unfortunate if they had to contend with more of this going forward.

這只是意味著更多這樣的事情——基本上對我們的消費者來說更多相同的事情。但這就是他們必須面對的問題，過去四年通膨率上漲了 25%。如果他們今後還得應付更多這樣的問題，那真的太不幸了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Vincent Caintic, BTIG.

文森特凱恩蒂克（Vincent Caintic），BTIG。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First question, wanted to talk again about the merchant side but zoom out a bit. So related to the uncertainty of the market, could you discuss how your conversations have been going with your merchants?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。第一個問題，想再談商家方面，但稍微放遠一點。那麼，關於市場的不確定性，您能談談您與商家的溝通進度如何嗎？

Are you seeing more merchant engagement? And are there any focal points with your merchant discussions? Like are they discussing approval rates or economic sharing or anything else? Thank you.

您是否看到更多商家參與？您與商家討論時有哪些重點？他們是在討論支持率、經濟分享還是其他？謝謝。

No. We have conversations with our merchants all the time. And they range from approval rates to increasing the value prop to everything under the sun. So nothing unusual there. We're in constant contact with our merchants.

不。我們一直與商家進行對話。它們的範圍從批准率到增加價值主張，乃至世間萬物。所以這沒什麼不尋常的。我們與商家保持持續的聯繫。

I think to me, if you think about the tariffs, it's still very early in the process. It's still very dynamic. The tariffs are going to affect our merchants -- many merchants in different ways. We're working -- they're working through that now. But those are the types of conversations we're having.

我認為，如果你考慮關稅，那麼這個過程還處於非常早期的階段。它仍然非常有活力。關稅將以不同的方式影響我們的商家—許多商家。我們正在努力——他們正在努力解決這個問題。但這些就是我們正在進行的對話類型。

Okay. That's helpful. And then relatedly, I thought your Crypto.com, partnership was really fascinating. It seems very innovative. First, like how difficult it is -- is it to do that kind of rewards program with Crypto Has Rewards?

好的。這很有幫助。與此相關的是，我認為您與 Crypto.com 的合作關係真的非常有趣。看起來很有創意。首先，它有多難——使用 Crypto Has Rewards 來做這種獎勵計劃是否困難？

And then when you're competing for a program wins like Crypto.com, is the current competitive environment leaning on any particular factor to win business? Like is it price or the willingness to go lend down credit? Just talking about the competitive environment.

那麼，當您競爭像 Crypto.com 這樣的程式勝利時，當前的競爭環境是否依賴任何特定因素來贏得業務？例如價格還是信貸放款意願？只是談論競爭環境。

It's what we do best, right, win partnerships. And we're excited about Crypto.com. They've got millions of US customers that are engaged in the company. The rewards program is pretty robust. It's going to be managed by them.

這是我們最擅長的，對吧，贏得合作關係。我們對 Crypto.com 感到非常興奮。他們擁有數百萬美國客戶。獎勵計劃非常健全。它將由他們來管理。

You can buy their currency or you can buy multiple other currencies. You can buy stock, you can buy merchandise, a really very robust program for Crypto.com. I think we won this for a variety of reasons. We demonstrated to them that our technology is up to snuff.

您可以購買他們的貨幣，也可以購買多種其他貨幣。你可以買股票，也可以買商品，這對 Crypto.com 來說是一個非常強大的專案。我認為我們贏得這個項目有很多原因。我們向他們證明了我們的技術是達到標準的。

So we continue to invest in tech monetization. We have seamless integration in multiple platforms, particularly in our mobile app. We've expanded our web and mobile-based customer service. So all that matters. It also matters that -- personally, that we're on top of with the team, and that's how we're engaged. So it will launch sometime this summer. We're really excited about the launch.

因此我們繼續投資於技術貨幣化。我們與多個平台實現了無縫集成，尤其是在我們的行動應用程式中。我們擴展了基於網路和行動的客戶服務。所以這一切都很重要。同樣重要的是——就個人而言，我們與團隊一起處於領先地位，這就是我們的參與方式。因此它將於今年夏天的某個時候推出。我們對這次發布感到非常興奮。

(Operator Instructions) I am showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now pass the call back to Ralph Andretta for closing comments.

（操作員指示）目前隊列中沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給拉爾夫·安德雷塔 (Ralph Andretta) 進行最後發言。

Yes. Thank you all for joining today and for your continued interest in Bread Financial. Looking forward to speaking to you next quarter. And everybody, have a terrific day. Take care.

是的。感謝大家今天的加入以及對 Bread Financial 的持續關注。期待下個季度與您交談。祝大家有個愉快的一天。小心。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開連接