Boise Cascade Co (BCC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Josh, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Boise Cascade's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早安.我叫喬希 (Josh)，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加博伊西卡斯卡德 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to introduce you to Chris Forrey, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations, Boise Cascade. Mr. Forrey, you may begin your conference.

現在我很高興向您介紹博伊西卡斯卡德公司財務和投資者關係副總裁克里斯·福雷 (Chris Forrey)。福雷先生，您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, Josh, and good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to Boise Cascade's Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Call and Business Update. Joining me on today's call are Nate Jorgensen, our CEO; Kelly Hibbs, our CFO and Treasurer; Troy Little, Head of our Wood Products Operations; and Jeff Strom, our recently announced COO and former Head of our Building Materials Distribution operations.

謝謝你，喬希，大家早安。歡迎您參加博伊西卡斯卡德 2024 年第四季財報電話會議和業務更新。參加今天電話會議的還有我們的執行長 Nate Jorgensen；我們的財務長兼財務主管凱利希布斯 (Kelly Hibbs)；特洛伊·利特爾 (Troy Little)，我們的木製品業務主管；以及我們最近任命的首席營運官和前建築材料分銷業務主管 Jeff Strom。

Turning to slide 2. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also, please note that the appendix includes reconciliations from our GAAP net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and segment income to segment EBITDA.

翻到幻燈片 2。本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述。請查看我們新聞稿、簡報以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有關這些前瞻性陳述所涉及的風險的警告聲明。此外，請注意附錄包括我們的 GAAP 淨收入與 EBITDA、調整後 EBITDA 以及分部收入與分部 EBITDA 的對帳。

I will now turn the call over to Nate.

現在我將電話轉給 Nate。

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our earnings call today. I'm on slide number 3. I'll start by highlighting some of our accomplishments as I reflect on our 2024 results.

謝謝，克里斯。大家早安。感謝您參加今天的財報電話會議。我在幻燈片 3 上。在回顧 2024 年的業績時，我將首先強調我們所取得的一些成就。

We reported full year net income of $376.4 million or $9.57 per diluted share. We grew our distribution business through our -- both our organic and acquisition initiatives, made progress on significant capital investments to support our EWP growth strategy, and provided meaningful capital returns to our shareholders. I'm grateful to our associates as they have shown commitment to our values and steadfast support for our customers, suppliers and each other.

我們報告全年淨收入為 3.764 億美元，即每股 9.57 美元。我們透過有機和收購計劃發展了分銷業務，在重大資本投資方面取得了進展，以支持我們的 EWP 成長策略，並為股東提供了有意義的資本回報。我感謝我們的同事，因為他們表現出對我們價值觀的承諾以及對我們的客戶、供應商和彼此的堅定支持。

Let me now turn to the fourth quarter results. Total US housing starts and single-family housing starts decreased 6% and 4%, respectively, compared to the prior-year quarter. Our consolidated fourth quarter sales of $1.6 billion were down 5% from fourth quarter 2023. Our net income was $68.9 million or $1.78 per share, compared to net income of $97.5 million or $2.44 per share in the year-ago quarter. Our year-ago quarter earnings per share were negatively impacted by approximately $0.18 per share from accelerated depreciation related to the Chapman, Alabama lumber facility closure and transaction expenses for the BROSCO acquisition.

現在我來談談第四季的業績。與去年同期相比，美國新屋開工總量和單戶住宅​​開工量分別下降了 6% 和 4%。我們第四季的綜合銷售額為 16 億美元，較 2023 年第四季下降 5%。我們的淨收入為 6,890 萬美元，即每股 1.78 美元，而去年同期的淨收入為 9,750 萬美元，即每股 2.44 美元。由於阿拉巴馬州查普曼木材加工廠關閉以及收購 BROSCO 的交易費用導致加速折舊，我們去年同期的每股收益受到約 0.18 美元的負面影響。

Kelly will now walk through our segment financial results, give some early insights on first quarter and then provide an update on our capital allocation in more detail, after which I'll provide our outlook, before we take your questions. Kelly?

凱利現在將介紹我們分部的財務業績，對第一季提供一些初步見解，然後更詳細地介紹我們的資本配置最新情況，之後我將提供我們的展望，然後我們再回答你們的問題。凱莉？

Thank you, Nate. Wood Products sales in the fourth quarter, including sales to our distribution segment, were $419.7 million, down 7% compared to fourth quarter 2023. Wood Products segment EBITDA was $56.6 million, compared to EBITDA of $92.7 million reported in the year ago quarter. The decrease in segment EBITDA was due primarily to lower EWP and plywood sales prices.

謝謝你，內特。第四季木製品銷售額（包括我們分銷部門的銷售額）為 4.197 億美元，與 2023 年第四季相比下降 7%。木製品部門的 EBITDA 為 5,660 萬美元，而去年同期的 EBITDA 為 9,270 萬美元。分部 EBITDA 的下降主要由於 EWP 和膠合板銷售價格的下降。

In BMD, our sales in the quarter were $1.4 billion, down 4% from fourth quarter 2023. BMD reported segment EBITDA of $84.5 million in the fourth quarter, compared to segment EBITDA of $80.6 million in the prior-year quarter. Despite the sales decline, a 60-basis-point increase in gross margin percentage positioned BMD to deliver comparable year-over-year gross margin dollars. In addition, BMD's general and administrative expenses decreased by $3.6 million due primarily to acquisition-related expenses in the prior year quarter for the acquisition of BROSCO.

在 BMD，我們本季的銷售額為 14 億美元，較 2023 年第四季下降 4%。BMD 報告第四季分部 EBITDA 為 8,450 萬美元，而去年同期分部 EBITDA 為 8,060 萬美元。儘管銷售額下降，但毛利率百分比增加了 60 個基點，使 BMD 能夠實現與去年同期相當的毛利率。此外，BMD 的一般和行政費用減少了 360 萬美元，這主要歸因於去年同期收購 BROSCO 的收購相關費用。

Turning to slide 5. On a year-over-year basis, fourth quarter volumes for LVL increased an impressive 11% and I-joists volumes were down 2%, both better than the 4% year-over-year decline in single-family starts, which we believe is a testament to the strength of our tightly aligned manufacturing and nationwide distribution capabilities.

翻到幻燈片 5。與去年同期相比，第四季度 LVL 銷量大幅增長了 11%，而 I 型托樑銷量下降了 2%，但均優於獨棟住宅開工量 4% 的同比下降，我們認為這證明了我們緊密結合的製造和全國分銷能力的實力。

As expected, seasonal declines in construction activity drove lower volumes on a sequential basis, with LVL and I-joist volumes down 8% and 10%, respectively. But again, for this comparative period, our volume changes were better than underlying activity than single-family starts would imply. At current demand levels, competition for share is prevalent in the marketplace today, and our sequential pricing for LVL and I-joists were down 2% and 1%, respectively.

如預期，建築活動的季節性下滑導致建築量較上季下降，其中 LVL 和 I 型托樑量分別下降 8% 和 10%。但是，對於這段比較時期，我們的成交量變化優於單戶住宅開工數所暗示的潛在活動。在目前的需求水準下，當今市場中份額競爭十分激烈，我們對 LVL 和 I 型托樑的連續定價分別下降了 2％ 和 1％。

Turning to slide 6. Our fourth quarter plywood sales volume was 371 million feet, compared to 363 million feet in fourth quarter 2023. The $350 per 1,000 average plywood net sales price in the fourth quarter was down 7% on a year-over-year basis. However, plywood net sales prices were up 5% sequentially. We experienced higher plywood pricing through the first half of the fourth quarter before expected seasonal declines set in, with December average price realizations of approximately $340 per 1,000.

翻到幻燈片 6。我們第四季的膠合板銷售量為 3.71 億英尺，而 2023 年第四季為 3.63 億英尺。第四季每 1,000 塊膠合板的平均淨銷售價格為 350 美元，年減 7%。不過，膠合板淨銷售價格較上季上漲5%。在預期的季節性下跌出現之前，第四季上半段膠合板價格上漲，12 月平均價格約為每千板 340 美元。

Moving to slides 7 and 8. BMD's year-over-year fourth quarter sales decline of 4% was driven by a 2% decrease in both sales price and volume. By product line, commodity sales decreased 4%. General line product sales increased 1%, and sales of EWP decreased 11%.

移至投影片 7 和 8。BMD 第四季銷售額年減 4%，原因是銷售價格和銷售量均下降 2%。依產品線劃分，商品銷售額下降4%。通用產品銷售額成長 1%，EWP 銷售額下降 11%。

As I alluded to earlier, BMD's fourth quarter gross margin percentage was 15.8%, up 60 basis points year-over-year. In particular, our commodity inventory position, coupled with strengthening commodity markets during the first half of the fourth quarter, provided tailwinds for our commodity margins.

正如我之前提到的，BMD 第四季的毛利率為 15.8%，較去年同期成長 60 個基點。特別是，我們的商品庫存狀況，加上第四季度上半段商品市場的走強，為我們的商品利潤率提供了順風。

BMD's EBITDA margin was 5.9% for the quarter, up from the 5.4% reported in the year ago and up 30 basis points sequentially. Very strong results in a seasonally slower quarter.

BMD 本季的 EBITDA 利潤率為 5.9%，高於去年同期的 5.4%，比上一季成長 30 個基點。在季節性較淡的一個季度中，我們取得了非常強勁的業績。

I'm now on slide 9. Weather has made for a difficult start to the quarter as we have had a couple of days of unplanned downtime across several of our manufacturing and distribution locations. As we look forward to our expectations for the first quarter, EWP volumes are expected to increase modestly from fourth quarter levels, and EWP pricing is expected to reflect low single-digit sequential declines.

我現在在第 9 張投影片。由於天氣原因，本季的開局並不順利，我們的多個製造和分銷基地都遭遇了幾天的計劃外停工。展望第一季的預期，EWP 銷售量預計將較第四季水準小幅成長，EWP 定價預計將出現低個位數的連續下降。

In plywood, the significant modernization projects at our Oakdale facility are progressing well. As planned, that facility will be down for the entirety of the first quarter and is expected to operate near 50% of capacity in the second quarter. As a result, our plywood volumes and cost absorption will be negatively impacted in the near term.

在膠合板方面，我們奧克代爾工廠的重大現代化項目進展順利。按照計劃，該設施將在整個第一季處於停工狀態，預計第二季的產能將達到近 50%。因此，我們的膠合板產量和成本吸收將在短期內受到負面影響。

For the first quarter, we expect plywood volumes to decline mid- to high single digits sequentially and that we will incur negative cost impacts of approximately $7 million due to the Oakdale downtime. On plywood pricing, quarter-to-date realizations are approximately 3% below fourth quarter averages.

我們預計第一季膠合板銷量將環比下降中高個位數，並且由於 Oakdale 停工，我們將承受約 700 萬美元的負面成本影響。就膠合板定價而言，本季迄今的實現價格比第四季平均價格低約 3%。

With regards to BMD sales, seasonal impacts are evident with our quarter-to-date daily sales pace about 8% below our fourth quarter daily sales averages. We'd expect the activity to strengthen as we move towards the spring building season.

就 BMD 銷售而言，季節性影響顯而易見，本季迄今的每日銷售速度比第四季的每日平均銷售速度低約 8%。我們預計，隨著春季建築季節的臨近，建築活動將會加強。

Now on slide 10. We had capital expenditures of $230 million in 2024, with $122 million of spending in Wood Products and $108 million of spending in BMD. Looking forward to 2025, we expect our capital spending to be between $220 million and $240 million. This range includes additional spending on our multiyear investments in support of EWP production capabilities, including adding I-joist production at our Thorsby, Alabama EWP facility and the significant modernization projects at our Oakdale, Louisiana veneer and plywood mill.

現在轉到投影片 10。2024 年，我們的資本支出為 2.3 億美元，其中木製品支出 1.22 億美元，BMD 支出 1.08 億美元。展望 2025 年，我們預期資本支出將在 2.2 億至 2.4 億美元之間。這個範圍包括我們為支持 EWP 生產能力而進行的多年期投資的額外支出，包括在我們位於阿拉巴馬州索斯比的 EWP 工廠增加工字梁生產以及在我們位於路易斯安那州奧克代爾的單板和膠合板廠實施重大現代化項目。

In BMD, we are making great progress on our greenfield distribution center in Hondo, Texas. Activity at the Walterboro, South Carolina greenfield has been slow, but we expect to gain momentum there in the back half of 2025.

在 BMD，我們位於德州洪多 (Hondo) 的綠地配送中心正在取得巨大進展。南卡羅來納州沃爾特伯勒綠地的活動一直進展緩慢，但我們預計 2025 年下半年將獲得發展動力。

Speaking to shareholder returns in 2024, we paid $220 million in regular and special dividends, which was comprised of $0.82 per share in regular quarterly dividends and a $5 per share special dividend. Our Board of Directors also recently approved a $0.21 per share quarterly dividend on our common stock. Shareholders of record as of February 24 will receive payment of this dividend on March 19.

談到 2024 年的股東回報，我們支付了 2.2 億美元的常規和特別股息，其中包括每股 0.82 美元的常規季度股息和每股 5 美元的特別股息。我們的董事會最近也批准了每股 0.21 美元的普通股季度股息。截至 2 月 24 日登記在冊的股東將於 3 月 19 日收到該股利。

For the 13 months ended January 2025, we have repurchased approximately 1.75 million shares or 4.5% of our outstanding shares for approximately $225 million. Today we have about 1.6 million shares available for repurchase under our share repurchase program.

截至 2025 年 1 月的 13 個月內，我們以約 2.25 億美元回購了約 175 萬股，佔已發行股份的 4.5%。今天，根據我們的股票回購計劃，我們有大約 160 萬股可供回購。

As our actions demonstrate, we continue to strive for a balanced approach to capital allocation that includes ongoing investments in our existing asset base, organic growth projects and returns to our shareholders. Our balance sheet also gives us the flexibility to pursue M&A if opportunities surface that align with our strategy.

正如我們的行動所表明的那樣，我們將繼續努力實現資本配置的平衡，包括對現有資產基礎、有機成長項目和股東回報的持續投資。如果出現符合我們策略的機會，我們的資產負債表也使我們能夠靈活地進行併購。

I will now turn it back over to Nate to share our business outlook and closing remarks.

現在我將把話題交還給 Nate，讓他分享我們的業務展望和結束語。

Thanks, Kelly. I'm on slide number 11. Current industry forecasts for total US housing starts are around 1.35 million for 2025, essentially flat with actual housing starts in 2024 as reported by the US Census Bureau. Single-family housing starts in 2024 outpaced 2023 levels by 7% and are expected to again be around the 1 million level despite the affordability challenges consumers are facing in the current rate environment.

謝謝，凱利。我在第 11 號投影片。目前業界對2025年美國住房開工總數的預測為135萬套左右，與美國人口普查局報告的2024年實際房屋開工數量基本持平。2024 年單戶住宅開工量將比 2023 年的水平高出 7%，儘管消費者在當前的利率環境下面臨著負擔能力的挑戰，但預計仍將再次達到 100 萬套左右。

Multifamily starts declined sharply in 2024, are expected to continue to face headwinds in 2025 due to prohibitive capital costs for developers, combined with elevated levels of multifamily unit completions in both 2023 and 2024.

2024 年多戶型住宅開工量急劇下降，預計 2025 年將繼續面臨阻力，原因是開發商的資本成本過高，加上 2023 年和 2024 年多戶型住宅完工量上升。

For home improvement spending, we expect 2025 to reflect modest growth as the age of US housing stock, elevated levels of homeowner equity and some recent improvement in existing home sales will provide a favorable backdrop for repair and remodel spending.

對於家居裝修支出，我們預計 2025 年將出現溫和增長，因為美國住房存量的年限、房主權益水平的提高以及近期現有房屋銷售的改善將為維修和改造支出提供有利的背景。

While uncertainties around the macro economy and policy decisions from the new administration make it challenging to predict the near-term demand environment, our constructive view on the medium and longer-term housing fundamentals remains, which affords us the ability to maintain a clear focus on our strategy and the execution of our growth initiatives.

雖然宏觀經濟和新政府政策決定的不確定性使得預測短期需求環境變得具有挑戰性，但我們對中長期住房基本面的建設性看法依然存在，這使我們能夠明確關注我們的戰略和增長計劃的執行。

Lastly, I would like to take the opportunity to congratulate Jeff Strom and Jo Barney on their recently announced promotions. Both are seasoned and accomplished leaders and look forward to their continued contributions in their new roles. These changes were part of our intentional strategic succession planning process as we position the company for continued service and support to our shareholders, our stakeholders in the future.

最後，我想藉此機會祝賀 Jeff Strom 和 Jo Barney 最近宣布晉升。他們都是經驗豐富且卓有成就的領導者，期待在新的職位上繼續做出貢獻。這些變化是我們有意策略繼任計畫流程的一部分，因為我們將使公司能夠在未來繼續為我們的股東和利害關係人提供服務和支援。

Thank you for joining us on our call today and your continued interest and support in Boise Cascade. We welcome any questions at this time. Josh, would you please open the phone lines?

感謝您今天的電話會議以及您對博伊西卡斯卡德的持續關注和支持。我們歡迎您隨時提出任何問題。喬希，你能接通電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

（操作員指令）Kurt Yinger，D.A.戴維森。

I just wanted to start off on tariffs, and we have pretty robust data on lumber and OSB and how important Canadian supply is there, but EWP is kind of a murkier picture. I guess, first off, could you maybe frame Canadian supply relative to US consumption, maybe where you run into some of those, call it, secondary suppliers in the market? And how are you thinking about opportunities that could arise for Boise if we were to see some sort of tariff implementation?

我只是想從關稅開始談起，我們擁有關於木材和定向刨花板 (OSB) 的相當可靠的數據，以及加拿大供應在那裡的重要性，但 EWP 的情況則比較模糊。我想，首先，您能否將加拿大的供應量與美國的消費量進行比較，也許您在市場上會遇到一些所謂的二級供應商？如果我們看到某種形式的關稅實施，您認為博伊西將會出現哪些機會？

Kurt, it's Nate. Let me start that, and Kelly and others can jump in. Yes, I think in terms of the kind of the tariff question, obviously, there's more unknowns than knowns relative to that. To your point, there is clarity in terms of how much volume is moving across, I think, largely from an industry perspective and for Boise Cascade from Canada into the US, and some of that is obviously around some of our commodities.

庫爾特，我是內特。讓我開始吧，凱利和其他人可以加入。是的，我認為就關稅問題而言，顯然未知數比已知數多。關於您的觀點，我認為，從行業角度以及博伊西卡斯卡德從加拿大到美國的運輸量是明確的，其中顯然與我們的一些商品有關。

But as you think about the -- some of the other items that we bring across the border, whether it's web-stock or other items, it's -- I think in terms of the impact, we haven't -- we've done a lot of modeling and a lot of work, Kurt, just to make sure we understand some of the actions and decisions we may need to take as a result of tariffs. But there's nothing that we've kind of concluded at this stage in terms of kind of anything immediate that we'll be doing in the marketplace.

但當你想到——我們跨境運輸的一些其他物品，無論是網路庫存還是其他物品——我認為就影響而言，我們還沒有——我們已經做了很多建模和工作，庫爾特，只是為了確保我們了解我們可能需要採取的一些行動和決定。但就我們將在市場上採取的任何直接行動而言，我們目前尚未得出任何結論。

At this point, the other thing that we're looking at is the demand environment in terms of the kind of the ripple effect on affordability we've talked about is a potential challenge with tariffs. So as we think about kind of the consequences of what could take place, again, not just on the lumber items but other items as well, that's going to be something that we're watching carefully and closely. But we've done a lot of work just to make sure we're prepared to move forward should that tariff arrive. And again, there's a lot of discussion and debate on when and if that's possible.

目前，我們正在關注的另一件事是需求環境，就我們所談論的對負擔能力的連鎖反應而言，這是關稅帶來的潛在挑戰。因此，當我們思考可能發生的後果時，我們不僅會關注木材產品，還會關注其他產品，這是我們會密切關注的事情。但我們已做了很多工作，以確保一旦關稅到來，我們就能做好準備。關於何時以及是否可能實現這一目標，存在著許多討論和爭論。

So maybe with that, Kelly, anything you would add just in terms of how we're thinking about that and just maybe a backdrop on that?

因此，凱利，您是否可以補充一些我們對此的看法以及相關背景？

Yes. Sure, Nate. Good to hear you, Kurt. So yes, for us, you could kind of think about it in our two segments. As you well know, our manufacturing is substantially based in the US. And to Nate's point, we would have some cost pressure from OSB web-stock that we do get from Canada. But we are very well positioned there, and so feel good about our ability to operate, again, given that, to Nate's point, there's a lot more unknowns than there are knowns in that space.

是的。當然，內特。很高興聽到你的消息，庫爾特。所以是的，對於我們來說，您可以在兩個部分中考慮這個問題。眾所周知，我們的製造業務主要在美國進行。正如 Nate 所說，我們從加拿大獲得的 OSB 捲材會給我們帶來一些成本壓力。但我們在那裡的地位非常有利，因此對我們的營運能力感到很滿意，同樣，考慮到 Nate 所說的，該領域的未知數比已知數多得多。

And then in BMD, as we -- if there are tariffs, and we do import a lot of commodity products from Canada, for example, if there were higher costs there, our intent would be to push those through and maintain our normal margin percentage. And that's kind of how we play the market every day, if you will. And so that would be our expectation.

然後在BMD，如果有關稅，而且我們確實從加拿大進口了很多商品，如果那裡的成本更高，我們的目的是推動這些成本並保持我們正常的利潤百分比。如果你願意的話，這就是我們每天在市場上運作的方式。這就是我們的期望。

The broader concern is probably if it gets -- if the tariffs end up, to Nate's point, causing further affordability challenges, do we have demand destruction? And that would be a bigger, broader concern.

更廣泛的擔憂可能是，如果關稅最終像內特所說的那樣，導致進一步的負擔能力挑戰，我們的需求是否會被破壞？這將是一個更大、更廣泛的擔憂。

Maybe just to kind of close out on that, Kurt, I think the -- when you think about the -- some of the policy uncertainty that's out there, and even kind of the weather that Kelly described, it's just kind of the risk-reward, there's a lot of hesitancy in the marketplace. And so I think we're seeing and experiencing that.

庫爾特，也許只是為了結束這個問題，我認為——當你考慮到——存在的一些政策不確定性，甚至凱利所描述的天氣因素，這只是一種風險回報，市場上存在很多猶豫。所以我認為我們正在看到和經歷這一點。

I think for us, the good news is that we're seeing continued strength out of warehouse as people kind of mitigate and manage that risk-reward. So our warehouse business remains steady, but you can certainly hear the influence of that policy risk in the conversations across the industry.

我認為對我們來說，好消息是，隨著人們逐漸減輕和管理風險回報，我們看到倉庫業務繼續保持強勁勢頭。因此，我們的倉庫業務保持穩定，但你肯定可以在整個行業的對話中聽到該政策風險的影響。

Right. Okay. No, that's great color. I appreciate it. And then moving on to EWP pricing. It's been kind of this slide over the last two years. And maybe some of that's bringing out some excess margin, and now it seems like more supply and demand, finding a balance, you talked about some of the competitive dynamics in terms of securing share.

正確的。好的。不，那顏色真棒。我很感激。然後轉到 EWP 定價。過去兩年來，情況一直呈現這種下滑趨勢。也許其中一些會帶來一些超額利潤，現在看起來更多的是供給和需求，尋找平衡，你談到了在確保份額方面的一些競爭動態。

I guess as we look out to 2025 thinking about maybe a flattish kind of housing starts environment, do you feel like the market is pretty close to finding that equilibrium? Or are there any other big variables on the supply side that you're watching more closely?

我想，當我們展望 2025 年，思考住房開工環境可能趨於平穩時，您是否覺得市場已經接近找到這種平衡點？或者您正在密切關注供應方面的其他重大變數？

Yes. Kurt, this is Kelly again. I don't think on -- on the supply side, I don't know that there's a lot of variables there. I mean there's no new capacity coming online here in the near term. But I do think if we're in a 1.35 million total or a 1.0 million single-family environment, I think there will continue to be competition for share. And so we've continued to see that in some modest price erosion. And if the environment stays like that, we'd expect to see some erosion.

是的。庫爾特，我又是凱利。我不認為——在供應方面，我不知道那裡有很多變數。我的意思是短期內這裡沒有新的產能上線。但我確實認為，如果我們處於總數 135 萬或單戶住宅數量 100 萬的環境中，我認為份額競爭將會繼續。因此，我們繼續看到價格出現適度下跌。如果環境持續如此，我們預計會看到一些侵蝕。

And then there could be some seasonally stronger periods where maybe it's a little less competitive at times. But I -- there's no reason for us to believe we won't continue to see some level of erosion if demand kind of stays where it is.

然後可能會出現一些季節性的強勁時期，有時競爭力可能會稍微弱一些。但是我——我們沒有理由相信，如果需求保持在目前的水平，我們不會繼續看到某種程度的侵蝕。

Kurt, maybe the other thing I would just add is when you think about EWP relative to other options, I think it still represents the right answer for the builder, in terms of the cycle time at the job site, the simplicity and relative to other options and materials that might be available.

庫爾特，也許我想補充的另一件事是，當你考慮 EWP 相對於其他選項時，我認為它仍然代表了建築商的正確答案，就施工現場的周期時間、簡單性以及相對於其他可能可用的選項和材料而言。

So as we look at the backdrop of EWP overall, I think, again, it's favorable in terms of what the builder is looking and needing to get done and at the job site. And so we feel good about that being -- continuing to be kind of a tailwind for EWP moving forward.

因此，當我們整體回顧 EWP 的背景時，我認為，就建築商所尋找的和需要在工作現場完成的工作而言，這是有利的。因此，我們對此感到很高興——這將繼續成為 EWP 前進的順風。

Got it. And if I could just sneak one more in following up on that. I mean historically, I don't think you guys have ever viewed pricing on lumber as a huge driver of substitution between solid sawn I-joist or open web floor trusses. But if we were to see kind of more upward pressure there on the commodity pricing, is that something on the margin that you think could be a potential positive? Or is there not really any historical evidence to support that?

知道了。如果我可以再偷偷跟進一下的話。我的意思是，從歷史上看，我認為你們從未將木材定價視為實心鋸切工字梁或開口網板桁架之間替代的重要驅動因素。但如果我們看到大宗商品價格面臨更大的上行壓力，您認為這是否可能是潛在的正面因素？或者確實沒有任何歷史證據支持這一點？

Yes. Generally, Kurt, it's -- most of the builders generally stay kind of pretty true to the product that -- whether it's dimensional lumber, to your point, open web floor trusses or EWP. So I think there's a fair bit of consistency there. But to your point, if they're at the margin, that probably -- if there's higher pressure on pricing on dimensional lumber as an example, that will probably create some discussion and some opportunities for potential conversion.

是的。一般來說，庫爾特，大多數建築商通常對產品相當忠誠，無論是規格木材，還是您所說的開腹樓板桁架或 EWP。所以我認為這裡有相當的一致性。但就你的觀點而言，如果他們處於邊際，那可能——例如，如果規格木材的定價壓力更大，那可能會引發一些討論，並帶來一些潛在轉換的機會。

But I think the builder, they'll continue to look at the affordability side of things. That's certainly first and foremost on their mind. And part of that affordability is not just materials but also speed on the job site and simplicity at the job site as well.

但我認為建築商會繼續考慮事物的可負擔性方面。這無疑是他們最先考慮的事情。這種可負擔性不僅來自於材料，還來自於施工現場的速度和簡單性。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的蘇珊馬克拉里 (Susan Maklari)。

Congrats to Jeff.

恭喜傑夫。

Thank you. I appreciate that.

謝謝。我很感激。

Yes. I want to start by talking a bit about the operating environment. You mentioned the impact to weather that will come through in the first quarter. But can you also talk a bit about how we should think of the weather the macro environment? And what you're hearing as the builders are starting to get into the early parts of the selling season?

是的。首先我想談談操作環境。您提到了第一季將出現的天氣影響。但是您能否談談我們應該如何看待天氣宏觀環境？當建商開始進入銷售旺季的初期時，您聽到了什麼消息？

Yes. Sue, it's Nate. I think the builders, there's -- the affordability remains probably first and foremost in the conversation. And so I think when you look at home prices, when you look at cost of money, that remains front and center. And they've been -- some of the builders, as you know, have been active in terms of buying down rates. So I think that's been an important part of what we experienced as we closed 2024, and I think what the builders are describing in terms of 2025.

是的。蘇，我是內特。我認為，對於建築商來說，負擔能力可能仍然是他們首先討論的話題。因此我認為當你看房價、看資金成本時，這仍然是最重要的。如你所知，一些建築商一直積極降低利率。所以我認為這是我們在 2024 年結束時經歷的一個重要部分，我想這也是建築商在描述 2025 年時所描述的一部分。

I think in terms of kind of the medium to longer term, I think there's still a lot of optimism and belief that we still are underbuilt as a country. And so that -- I think that narrative remains, if more, again, probably for the medium to longer term.

我認為，從中長期來看，人們仍然充滿樂觀，並相信我們國家還不夠完善。所以—我認為，這種敘述可能會持續下去，甚至可能持續更長時間，持續的時間可能為中期至長期。

In the short term, again, I think there's some complexity and unknowns, and part of that is certainly around the economy and what could be happening there, including things like tariffs that could drive that. But this -- that kind of maybe hesitancy is maybe more of the theme that we've heard here over the past couple of weeks.

從短期來看，我認為仍存在一些複雜性和未知因素，其中一部分肯定與經濟有關，以及可能發生的情況，包括可能推動經濟走勢的關稅等因素。但這種猶豫也許更多是我們過去幾週所聽到的主題。

So I don't think that's, for me, there's a lot of anxiety. It's simply people are probably a little bit more measured, at least in the short term, until they have a better view of what the environment is. So I think the homebuilders remain, I think, still optimistic about certainly the future. And I think in the near term, they're going to kind of manage it on a day-by-day basis to make sure that they're making the right choices and decisions for each of their stakeholders, including their shareholders.

所以我不認為這對我來說會有很多焦慮。只不過，人們可能至少在短期內會更加謹慎，直到他們對環境有更好的了解。因此我認為房屋建築商仍然對未來保持樂觀。我認為在短期內，他們將以日常管理的方式確保為包括股東在內的每個利害關係人做出正確的選擇和決定。

Yes. Okay. That's helpful color. And then thinking about the environment and the fact that maybe there's some increasing competition on commodity EWP products, can you talk about the potential benefits and the more resilient nature of the general line part of the business, and how that could perhaps be a relative offset in this kind of situation?

是的。好的。這是很有幫助的顏色。然後考慮到環境以及商品 EWP 產品的競爭可能日益激烈的事實，您能否談談業務的一般線部分的潛在優勢和更具彈性的性質，以及在這種情況下這可能如何相對抵消？

This is Jeff. The general line, it continues to hold up very well. That being said, it is competitive out there. And as things slow down and people are looking for market share, it does get incredibly competitive, and we're having to keep our eye on that rack where we need to.

這是傑夫。總體而言，它繼續保持得很好。話雖如此，競爭還是很激烈的。隨著經濟放緩，人們開始尋求市場份額，競爭變得異常激烈，我們必須時刻關注需要關注的市場。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I just want to sneak one more in, which is, it was nice to see the buybacks that came through in 2024. As you do think about your approach to capital allocation for this year, can you talk a bit about shareholder returns and how you're thinking about buybacks versus perhaps special dividend? Just any color there?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想再說一句，很高興看到 2024 年的回購。當您考慮今年的資本配置方法時，能否談談股東回報以及您對回購與特別股利的看法？那裡有任意一種顏色嗎？

Yes, sure, Sue. So let me, I guess, start maybe a little more broadly and then we can work our way to your specific questions. So capital allocation, as you've seen in the materials, we have the second year of a, for us, a pretty heavy capital spending program. So that is going to be the main focus here, is to make sure we execute on our capital spending objectives. Go get M&A if we find something that makes sense.

是的，當然了，蘇。因此我想先從更廣泛的角度開始，然後我們再來回答您的具體問題。因此，正如您在材料中看到的那樣，資本配置是我們實施相當繁重的資本支出計劃的第二年。因此，這裡的重點是確保我們實現資本支出目標。如果我們發現有意義的東西，就去進行併購。

Specific to shareholder returns, we're going -- I expect us to opportunistically stay in the market in buying shares on a more consistent basis, and then -- like we've seen recently. And then special dividend, that will be a conversation with the board, but I'd anticipate that to be more later in the year, more like a third quarter event, if we -- if the Board chooses to do that. And again, that could be also dependent upon what might we find in the M&A space and -- or do we seek out and find some additional organic growth opportunities.

具體到股東回報，我們將會——我希望我們能夠抓住機會留在市場上，更持續地購買股票，然後——就像我們最近看到的那樣。然後是特別股息，這將與董事會進行討論，但我預計這將在今年晚些時候進行，更像是第三季度的活動，如果我們 - 如果董事會選擇這樣做的話。而且，這也可能取決於我們在併購領域能發現什麼，或者我們是否尋找並發現一些額外的有機成長機會。

Okay. Well, I got an answer from all three of you, which I appreciate. And so good luck to everyone. We'll talk soon.

好的。好吧，我得到了你們三個人的答复，對此我很感激。祝大家好運。我們很快就會聊的。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Congrats on all the progress. Kelly, as you noted, BMD margin was strong in 4Q, certainly better than we expected, despite some sales pace deterioration during the quarter. Mix is also a little more unfavorable versus 3Q. So can you help us understand then how you generated a higher sequential margin, especially as margins are seasonally lower sequentially? Was any of that due to, to Nate's point, on increasing warehouse sales? Just any color you can provide about the -- around the margin and how you're able to achieve the type of margin in 4Q?

恭喜你所取得的所有進步。凱利，正如您所說，儘管本季度銷售速度有所放緩，但 BMD 第四季度的利潤率仍然強勁，肯定比我們預期的要好。與第三季相比，混合情況也略顯不利。那麼，您能否幫助我們理解如何實現更高的連續利潤率，尤其是在利潤率隨季節變化而下降的情況下？正如 Nate 所說，這是否是由於倉庫銷售增加所致？您能否提供有關利潤的任何信息，以及如何在第四季度實現利潤類型？

Yes. There are several components in there, and you hit on several of them, Mike. The one is warehouse, and again, the uncertainty in the marketplace and how that increases reliance from our customers on our inventory position, so that helped.

是的。這裡面有幾個組成部分，麥克，你提到了其中的幾個。一個是倉庫，再次，市場的不確定性以及它如何增加客戶對我們庫存狀況的依賴，所以這有幫助。

And then I would also say, commodities had a decent little run kind of the first part -- the first half of the fourth quarter, and that really gave us some tailwinds that we were able to capture in the fourth quarter.

然後我還要說的是，大宗商品在第四季度的前半段表現不錯，這確實給我們帶來了一些順風，讓我們能夠在第四季度抓住這些順風。

Got it. So when you think about the transition from 4Q to 1Q in terms of EBITDA margin, how should we think about it? Because obviously, you're guiding to a sales pace that has deteriorated further in 1Q relative to 4Q. Obviously, you said the winter weather, there's uncertainty. I get all that. But are you able to maintain that level in 4Q? Or should we see some type of erosion because of the sales pace deterioration relative to 4Q?

知道了。那麼，當您考慮 EBITDA 利潤率從第 4 季到第 1 季的轉變時，我們應該如何看待它？因為很明顯，你預測第一季的銷售速度相對於第四季來說進一步下降。顯然，您說的冬季天氣存在不確定性。我都明白了。但您能在第四季保持這一水平嗎？或者我們應該看到某種類型的下滑，因為銷售速度相對於第四季度有所惡化？

Yes. We will see erosion from fourth quarter, for sure, Mike, I mean, given the 8% sales pace decline that we've seen so far in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. And that coupled with no tailwinds in terms of across any product lines in terms of price appreciation. Yes, we will not report that same level of EBITDA margin here in the first quarter.

是的。麥克，從第四季開始我們肯定會看到銷售額下滑，因為與第四季相比，第一季迄今的銷售速度已經下降了 8%。再加上，就價格上漲而言，任何產品線都沒有任何順風。是的，我們不會在第一季報告相同水準的 EBITDA 利潤率。

Got it. And then one last one for me. Can you help us understand what drove the growth in LVL? Obviously, very strong growth in 4Q, up 11%. I think single-family starts are down 4% to 5%. Why -- did you gain share against your peers? Is that something that you expect to continue? Just help us frame what happened and how we should think about the go-forward.

知道了。對我來說還有最後一個。您能幫助我們了解推動 LVL 成長的因素嗎？顯然，第四季的成長非常強勁，成長了11％。我認為單戶住宅開工率下降了 4% 至 5%。為什麼——你的市佔率比同業增加？您希望這種情況持續下去嗎？只是幫助我們理解已經發生的事情以及我們應該如何思考未來。

Yes. The -- yes, that's a great segue for me to give a great shout out to the combined efforts of the Wood Products and BMD sales teams. Very active this year in getting out and selling our value proposition. And we -- that's really showing up in our volumes. And like I alluded to in my comments, volumes better than what underlying single-family starts would imply. And so, really good execution, and again, that linkage between our manufacturing and distribution showed up really well.

是的。是的，這是一個很好的過渡，我要向 Wood Products 和 BMD 銷售團隊的共同努力表示感謝。我們今年非常積極地宣傳和推銷我們的價值主張。而我們 — — 這確實體現在我們的銷量上。而且就像我在評論中提到的那樣，數量比單戶住宅開工數量所暗示的要好。因此，執行效果非常好，而且我們的製造和分銷之間的聯繫也表現得非常好。

The other thing, Mike -- it's Nate. As you think about LVL and kind of the applications for that in terms of beams and headers, it's really -- it's a steady and probably growing application opportunities. So we talked at times about competitiveness on EWP specifically with I-joist and open web floor trusses and dimensional lumber, the complexity of designs as such continues to support beam and header use.

另一件事，麥克——是內特。當您考慮 LVL 以及它在樑和頭部方面的應用時，它確實是一個穩定且可能不斷增長的應用機會。因此，我們有時會談論 EWP 的競爭力，特別是工字樑、開口網板桁架和規格木材的競爭力，這種設計的複雜性繼續支持樑和橫樑的使用。

And so I think in terms of the backdrop on the opportunity and how that shows up for that product category specifically, we feel good about what that represents. And obviously, that's consistent with how we thought about continuing to invest and grow that part of our business from a production standpoint. So yes, thanks for kind of calling that out. And again, we feel good about where we finished and really what's in front of us. It's somewhat independent of the housing market.

因此，我認為，就機會的背景以及它在該產品類別中的具體表現而言，我們對其代表的意義感到滿意。顯然，這與我們從生產角度繼續投資和發展該部分業務的想法是一致的。是的，感謝您提出這一點。我們對於自己所取得的成績以及未來面臨的挑戰感到非常滿意。它在某種程度上獨立於房地產市場。

George Staphos, Bank of America Securities.

喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)，美國銀行證券。

Congrats to Jeff and Joe. I guess my first question, maybe I'll segue off of the discussion we were just having with Mike. So given the complexity of homes and the way that this is supporting greater demand for beam and header use, on the other hand, you talk about inflation, affordability. What can you talk to about, whether size of home, conservation materials, how that might be impacting, if at all, demand for EWP as you're seeing it right now?

恭喜傑夫和喬。我想我的第一個問題可能要轉移到我們剛才與麥克的討論。因此，考慮到房屋的複雜性以及這對橫樑和橫樑使用產生更大需求的方式，另一方面，您會談論通貨膨脹和可負擔性。您能談談房屋大小、保護材料等嗎？如果有的話，這些因素會如何影響您現在對 EWP 的需求？

Relatedly, guys, I know it's hard to parse this precisely, right, but are you seeing more of the price erosion coming from competition against other EWP products in the market? Or is it coming from dimensional, is it coming from trusses? How should we think about that?

與此相關的是，夥計們，我知道很難準確地分析這一點，對吧，但是你是否看到更多的價格侵蝕來自於與市場上其他 EWP 產品的競爭？還是它是來自維度，是來自桁架？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. So I'll start, George. So to answer your second question first. Yes, the price erosion is related to competition for like EWP products. It's not from -- it's not from competing products like dimension lumber as you referenced. It's EWP.

是的。那我先開始了，喬治。先回答你的第二個問題。是的，價格下降與 EWP 產品的競爭有關。它不是——它不是來自諸如您所提到的規格木材之類的競爭產品。這是 EWP。

And then you're right, in terms of the, gee, how does the demand environment or how does the size of homes impact demand, yes, it will. If you have smaller homes, that will create less footage used in a home, not necessarily in terms of the applications or products that home -- that builders will use, but if the footprint is smaller, the usage will be smaller.

那麼你是對的，就需求環境或房屋大小如何影響需求而言，是的，它會的。如果您的房屋較小，那麼房屋使用的面積就會較少，這不一定是指房屋建築商將使用的應用程式或產品，但如果面積較小，則使用量也會較小。

George, it's Nate. Maybe to Kelly's point -- good morning. When you think about the square footage, I think that's, to me, probably focuses more on the I-joist kind of statement in terms of that kind of consumption and, certainly, beams and headers are part of that and wall framing. But again, when you look at the designs today, even though those footprints are getting a little bit smaller, the complexity continues to grow, in terms of the open spaces and the expectations around that. So I think that backdrop and theme remains, and that's really supportive of the beams and our LVL growth as a result.

喬治，我是內特。也許正如凱利所說——早安。當您考慮平方英尺時，我認為，對我來說，可能更專注於 I 型托樑類型的陳述，就這種消耗而言，當然，樑和橫樑是其中的一部分，還有牆體框架。但是，再說一遍，當你看看今天的設計時，儘管這些足跡變得更小了，但就開放空間和圍繞它的期望而言，複雜性仍在不斷增加。因此，我認為背景和主題仍然存在，並且這確實支持了樑和我們的 LVL 成長。

The other piece of it, as you know, is housing starts are really -- the consumption of EWP is really dependent on the geography basis. So consumption in Florida is different than Colorado. And so as you think about where that housing start resides, that has influence in terms of what's expected as well. But overall, I think the beam and header market is generally has a little more stability around it in part based upon some of the construction techniques that remain out there.

另一部分原因在於，如你所知，新屋開工實際上——EWP 的消費實際上依賴地理位置。因此佛羅裡達州的消費與科羅拉多州不同。因此，當您考慮住房開工情況時，這也會對預期產生影響。但總體而言，我認為樑頭市場總體上更加穩定，部分原因是由於目前仍存在的一些施工技術。

So Nate, I mean, just to summarize it, and look, we're never going to hold you to this, we just want to understand what you're seeing in terms of the market, even with some of the headwinds on square footage and the like. Your view, holding everything else constant, dangerous phrase there, is that you should see incrementally better demand for EWP because of those points on complexity of design and related factors, would that be fair?

所以 Nate，我的意思是，總結一下，你看，我們永遠不會強迫你這樣做，我們只是想了解你在市場方面看到了什麼，即使在平方英尺等方面面臨一些阻力。您的觀點是，在其他所有因素不變的情況下，這是一個危險的說法，您應該看到對 EWP 的需求會逐漸增加，因為設計的複雜性和相關因素，這公平嗎？

Yes. I would say more on the kind of the beam and header side of things, George, as opposed to the floor system. So I would say pretty kind of separated -- separate those two product categories. But again, I-joists do have a role in terms of again creating that simplicity and that speed at the job site, and that's important to the builder. It always has been and certainly is today. So I think that's going to be favorable relative to other options that are out there.

是的。喬治，我想更多地談論樑和橫梁方面的事情，而不是地板系統。因此，我會說，這兩個產品類別是分開的。但是，工字形托樑在創造施工現場的簡單性和速度方面確實發揮了作用，這對建築商來說很重要。過去一直如此，現在也依然如此。因此我認為這相對於現有的其他選擇是有利的。

Kelly, you called out Oakdale, and I think it's kind of a $7 million impact in the quarter coming up. Is there any residual effect that we should build into the model?

凱利，你提到了奧克代爾，我認為這將對下一季產生 700 萬美元的影響。我們是否應該將任何殘留效應納入模型中？

And then relatedly, you -- and we appreciate it, you qualitatively called out, hey, it's a little bit tougher start to the 1Q from weather than would normally be the case for weather in 1Q. Is there any sort of number you would sort of give us, hey, this has been the effect above and beyond a normal 1Q. Anything that we could do to size our models?

然後與此相關的是，我們很感激您定性地指出，嘿，第一季的天氣狀況比通常第一季的天氣狀況要艱難一些。您能給我們什麼數字嗎？嘿，這已經產生了超出正常第一季的效果。我們可以做些什麼來調整模型尺寸？

And then really my last question, and again, I appreciate all the color, kind of where is your inventory position right now in BMD relative to where you'd like it to be?

然後我的最後一個問題是，我再次感謝您提供的所有詳細信息，相對於您希望的水平，您目前在 BMD 的庫存情況如何？

Yes. Sure, George. So yes, I guess kind of on the Q1 indicators, I would point you towards the table there in terms of the volume and price expectations for Wood Products. And then for BMD, yes, the sales pace is really going to matter. That's very important and that will very much have an impact on how we close out the quarter. And we've had multiple locations with multiple down days. Even several locations this week were down because of some very tough weather. So yes, it's created some challenges for us.

是的。當然，喬治。是的，我想關於第一季的指標，我會向您指出那裡的表格，其中顯示了木製品的數量和價格預期。對 BMD 來說，銷售速度確實很重要。這非常重要，並且將對我們如何結束本季產生很大影響。我們的多個營業點都曾多次出現停工的情況。由於天氣極為惡劣，本週甚至有數個地點停業。是的，這給我們帶來了一些挑戰。

And then Oakdale, that's -- we've been working that project for some time now. So as expected, that facility is down and will be down for the entirety of this quarter as we do that significant modernization project that we're excited to do. And again, that's a big, important veneer supplier to Alexandria, Louisiana EWP mill.

然後是奧克代爾，那是——我們已經從事這個項目有一段時間了。因此，正如預期的那樣，該設施處於停工狀態，並將在整個本季度處於停工狀態，因為我們正在進行我們很高興進行的重大現代化項目。再次強調，這是路易斯安那州亞歷山大 EWP 工廠重要的單板供應商。

And so yes, we will lose some volume from that. And certainly, that will have -- give us some negative sequential cost impacts. But again, it was part of the plan, and we're on schedule. And then we'll see probably some of that continue into the second quarter because we'll be running at 50%-ish in the second quarter as we work towards completion of those projects by the end of the second quarter.

是的，我們的銷量確實會因此減少一些。當然，這會為我們帶來一些負面的連續成本影響。但再次強調，這是計劃的一部分，我們正在按計劃進行。然後我們可能會看到其中一些情況持續到第二季​​度，因為我們在第二季度的運行率將達到 50% 左右，因為我們致力於在第二季度末完成這些項目。

And then I think inventory position, I'll send that over to Mr. Strom.

然後我認為庫存狀況，我會把它發送給斯特羅姆先生。

George, it's Jeff. On our inventory position, overall, I feel pretty good. Right now, with all the uncertainty and lack of clarity out there, people are pulling more and more material out of our warehouse. And talking to our dealers, in years I've been doing this, I've never heard so much conversation from that level about net working capital and days on hand, so there is a real reliance. And so we're sitting there ready to serve every single day.

喬治，我是傑夫。就我們的庫存狀況而言，總體而言，我感覺相當良好。目前，由於存在各種不確定性和缺乏明確性，人們正在從我們的倉庫中撤出越來越多的材料。在與我們的經銷商交談中，我從事這項工作多年，從未聽過如此多關於淨營運資本和庫存天數的討論，因此存在著真正的依賴。所以我們每天都坐在那裡準備提供服務。

Good luck on the quarter.

祝本季好運。

Ketan Mamtora, BMO Capital Markets.

Ketan Mamtora，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe to start with, on the BMD side, you have the slide where you look at sort of the last five years EBITDA margins. Clearly, the operating environment in '24, and certainly, looks like, the start of this year, is kind of tougher probably below normalized levels. Would you say, given what you guys have done over the last few years in terms of the product mix, that you can say that trough-level margins in BMD are sort of a little bit above 5%? Is that -- would that be sort of a fair characterization?

也許首先，在 BMD 方面，您可以看到過去五年的 EBITDA 利潤率。顯然，2024年的經營環境，以及今年初的經營環境，可能更為嚴峻，低於正常水準。您是否認為，鑑於您過去幾年在產品組合方面所做的工作，BMD 的谷底利潤率略高於 5%？這——這是一種公平的描述嗎？

Yes. So our expectation and our strategy with the investments we've made and with the product mix shifts that we've made is that BMD's margin is, through a cycle, is in the mid-5s, and we've demonstrated that. And then -- and now we could have periods like, for example, here in the first quarter, with challenges on the top line, we may not hit 5% here in the first quarter because of this pretty significant erosion here in the sales pace in the first quarter. But yes, over time, absolutely, the strategy is we're mid-5s.

是的。因此，我們的預期以及我們根據所做的投資和產品組合調整制定的策略是，BMD 的利潤率在整個週期內將保持在 5% 左右的中間水平，我們已經證明了這一點。然後 — — 現在我們可能會遇到這樣的時期，例如在第一季度，我們面臨著營收挑戰，由於第一季度銷售速度大幅下滑，我們可能無法在第一季度達到 5% 的營收。但是的，隨著時間的推移，我們的策略絕對是 5 中段。

Understood. Got it. And then curious, as you look at sort of your M&A pipeline, is that something that would be sort of an area of interest as seller expectations moderate either on the distribution side or on the Wood Products side? And then just related to that, are there any other product categories within distribution that you think would make sense for you guys?

明白了。知道了。然後很好奇，當您查看您的併購管道時，這是否會成為一個感興趣的領域，因為賣方對分銷方面或木製品方面的預期會有所緩和？然後與此相關的是，您認為分銷範圍內還有其他產品類別對您們有意義嗎？

Yes. So on the M&A front, Ketan, the short answer is yes, we would have interest if it aligns with our strategy. And I would say there's probably more potential opportunity on the distribution side than there would be on the Wood Products side.

是的。因此，在併購方面，Ketan，簡短的回答是肯定的，如果它符合我們的策略，我們會感興趣。我想說，分銷方面的潛在機會可能比木製品方面更多。

And then as it relates to new product categories, and I think you were kind of focused towards the BMD side, I think, we're -- as we've talked before, we're very fortunate to be aligned with a lot of really world-class suppliers, and oftentimes they're continuing to add products to their SKU set and we get some natural growth -- organic growth opportunity from there.

然後，就新產品類別而言，我認為您有點專注於 BMD 方面，我認為，正如我們之前談到的，我們非常幸運能夠與許多真正的世界級供應商結盟，而且他們經常繼續將產品添加到他們的 SKU 組中，我們從中獲得一些自然增長 - 有機增長機會。

Ketan, it's Nate. Maybe just to add to Kelly's comments, is I think as we look at new opportunities, we always try to start the conversation with the customer in market as to, okay, what do they need? What are they experiencing? Where are these opportunities where Boise Cascade can step in? And we try to have the same conversation with the suppliers, as Kelly described, and in many cases they're bringing out new products, new SKUs, which is exciting. So I think it's a deliberate conversation we always look to have. And where customers ask us to step into a different opportunity, it needs to kind of fit with our strategy and our competencies, but that's been an important part of our growth story, and I think we'll continue as we move forward.

凱坦，我是內特。也許只是為了補充凱利的評論，我認為當我們尋找新的機會時，我們總是試圖與市場上的客戶展開對話，好吧，他們需要什麼？他們正在經歷什麼？博伊西卡斯卡德可以介入的機會在哪裡？正如凱利所描述的，我們嘗試與供應商進行同樣的對話，在許多情況下，他們會推出新產品、新的 SKU，這令人興奮。所以我認為這是我們一直希望進行的深思熟慮的對話。當客戶要求我們抓住不同的機會時，它需要與我們的策略和能力相適應，但這是我們成長故事的重要組成部分，我認為我們會繼續前進。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Nate Jorgensen for any closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想將電話轉回 Nate Jorgensen，請他做最後發言。

Great. Thank you. I appreciate everyone's time on the call today and interest in Boise Cascade. And we look forward to getting caught up with this team here at the end of the first quarter. So again, thank you, and have a great day.

偉大的。謝謝。我感謝大家今天參加電話會議的時間以及對博伊西卡斯卡德的關注。我們期待在第一季末趕上這支球隊。再次感謝您，祝您有個愉快的一天。

Thank you. This concludes the conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。