Boise Cascade Co (BCC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Felicia Crabtree, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Boise Cascade's second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (operator instructions) After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer period.

It is now my pleasure to introduce you to Chris Forrey, Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations of Boise Cascade. Mr. Forrey, you may now begin your conference.

Thank you, Felicia, and good morning, everyone.

I would like to welcome you to Boise Cascade's second quarter 2024 earnings call and business update. Joining me on today's call are Nate Jorgensen, our CEO; Kelly Hibbs, our CFO and Treasurer; Troy Little, Head of our Wood Products Operations; and Jeff Strom Head of our Building Materials Distribution Operations.

Turning to Slide 2. This call will contain forward-looking statements. Please review the warning statements in our press release, on the presentation slides and in our filings with the SEC regarding the risks associated with these forward-looking statements. Also please note, that the appendix includes reconciliations from our GAAP net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA and segment income to segment EBITDA.

I will now turn the call over to Nate.

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our earnings call today.

I'm on Slide number three. Total US housing starts decreased 7%, driven by lower multi-family starts, a single-family housing starts increased 7% compared to the prior-year quarter. Our consolidated second quarter sales of $1.8 billion were down 1% from second quarter 2023. Our net income was $112.3 million or $2.84 per share compared to net income of $146.3 million or $3.67 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Both of our business delivered strong financial results during the quarter, while operating as somewhat tepid demand environment influenced by elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainties. In addition, spending on our organic growth projects progressed as expected, and we continue to demonstrate that our returning capital to our shareholders is an important part of our capital deployment strategy.

I want to thank our associates across the company who continue to deliver superior value to our customer and vendor partners as we navigate uncertainties posed by the current demand environment. Kelly will now walk through our segment financial results, give some insights on third quarter and then provide an update on our capital allocation in more detail, after which I'll provide an outlook before we take your questions. Kelly?

Thank you, Nate, and good morning. Everyone.

Wood product sales in the second quarter, including sales to our distribution segment were $489.8 million compared to $530.3 million in second quarter 2023. Wood products reported segment EBITDA of $95.1 million, down from EBITDA of $127 million reported in the year ago quarter, the decrease in segment EBITDA was due primarily to lower EWP sales prices as well as higher wood fiber and conversion costs. These decreases were offset partially by higher EWP sales volumes.

BMD sales in the quarter, were $1.7 billion, up 1% from second quarter 2023. BMD reported segment EBITDA of $97.1 million in the second quarter compared to segment EBITDA of $105.9 million in the prior year quarter. BMD was able to deliver flat gross margins dollars in a challenging environment, as it relates to costs, selling and distribution expenses increased by $10.9 million, mainly due to the BROSCO acquisition and general and administrative expenses decreased by $2 million.

Turning to slide 5. On a year-over-year and sequential basis, second quarter volumes for LVL were up 8% and 6% respectively, and I-joists volumes over the same comparative periods were up by 5% and 16%. Our EWP volumes continued to be supported by the resilience of single-family starts. Sequential pricing for I-joists and LVL was down 3% and 2% respectively, due to continued pricing pressure in the markets.

Turning to slide 6. Our second quarter plywood sales volumes was 383 million feet compared to 440 million feet in second quarter 2023, as expected, and consistent with our strategy. Plywood volumes decreased during the current quarter, as we shifted a higher proportion of our internally produced veneer into EWP production given improved demand for EWP. $362 per thousand average plywood net sales price in the second quarter was down 1% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. Plywood pricing weakened steadily as we progress through the second quarter with our June average price realizations around $340 per thousand.

Moving to Slide 7 and 8. BMD's second quarter sales were $1.7 billion, up 1% from second quarter 2023, driven by sales volume increases of 2%, offset partially by sales price decreases of 1%. Excluding the impact of the BROSCO acquisition, BMD sales would have decreased 2% from second quarter 2023.

By product line, commodity sales decreased 6%. General line product sales increased 8%, and sales of EWP decreased less than 1%. Gross margin dollars were flat when compared to the same quarter last year, as lower margins dollars on commodity and EWP products were offset by higher margin dollars generated on general growth.

BMD's gross margin percentage was 14.8%, down 20 basis points year-over-year and sequentially. BMD's EBITDA margin was 5.9% for the quarter, down from the 6.5% reported in the year-ago quarter, but up 30 basis points sequentially.

We are pleased with BMD's performance in the second quarter given the market landscape. We benefited from our continued growth in general line products where sales are those products represented 42% of our sales mix in the second quarter, the highest in our history. In commodities, our team's performance was outstanding in the quarter, with continued weakness in lumber markets and panel markets that drifted significantly lower as the quarter progressed.

I'm now on Slide 9. Looking forward to the third quarter, our EWP order intake has slowed in conjunction with recent declines in builder sentiment, weakening single-family starts and permits data and ongoing affordability constraints for homebuyers. Assuming we don't see an acceleration of single-family starts from recent levels, we expect mid to high single digit sequential volume declines in EWP.

On EWP pricing, we currently expect low single digit sequential price declines in the third quarter. For plywood, we expect our volumes to be comparable to second quarter. However, market conditions have remained weak with July price realizations approximately 10% below our second quarter average.

With regards to BMD, our daily sales pace through July is approximately 5% below second quarter daily sales averages. The number of sales days in the third quarter will be consistent with second quarter at 64 days.

I'm now on Slide 10. We had capital expenditures of $74 million in the six months ended June 2024 were $37 million of spending in both Wood Products and BMD. Our capital spending range for 2024 remains at $250 million to $270 million with the pace of spending to accelerate as we move through the back half of the year.

In wood products, the significant modernization of our Oakdale facility will occur in stages between fourth quarter 2024, and second quarter 2025, and plans are in place to mitigate the potential impact to our EWP production in the Southeast region as we take project related downtime at that facility. In BMD, we're excited to have recently broken ground on our new distribution facility in Hondo, Texas and expected to be operational in late 2025.

Speaking to shareholder returns, we paid $19 million in regular dividends in the first half of 2024, and our year-to-date, July share repurchase activity was nearly 768,000 shares for approximately $100 million. Today, we have approximately 1.2 million shares still available for repurchase under our share repurchase program.

Also, our Board of Directors recently approved two additional dividend payments for our common shareholders, a $0.21 per share quarterly dividend, which represents a 5% increase and also a $5 per share special dividend. Shareholders of record as of September 3, will receive payment of these dividends on September 16.

In summary, our balance sheet remains very strong, and we are committed to our balanced approach to capital allocation that includes ongoing investment in our existing asset base, organic growth projects and returns to our shareholders. We also have the flexibility to execute M&A if opportunities surface that align with our strategy.

I will turn it back over to Nate to discuss our business outlook.

Thanks, Kelly. I'm on Slide number 11. Current industry forecasts for 2024, US housing starts are slightly below, actual housing starts of $1.42 million in 2023 as reported by the US Census Bureau. Home affordability remains a challenge for many consumers due to the cost of housing combined with elevated mortgage rates.

However, with low unemployment and undersupply of existing housing stock available for sale and favorable demographic trends. New residential construction is expected to remain an important source of supply for homebuyers.

Multifamily starts have declined sharply from historic levels seen in recent years, doing increased capital cost for developers combined with elevated supply. Regarding home improvement spending, the age of US housing stock and elevated levels of home owner equity will continue to provide a favorable backdrop for repair and remodel spending.

However, while home-improvement spending is expected to remain healthy compared to history, renovation spending has softened due to consumer uncertainty, labor availability, higher borrowing costs, and building material inflation.

Although near term market demand expectations have moderated, our longer-term view on housing fundamentals remains favorable, supported by demographic trends and underbuilt housing stock. That constructive long-term view in tandem with our outstanding balance sheet affords us the ability to maintain a clear focus on our strategy and the execution of our growth initiatives that position the company for continued success in the future.

Thank you for joining us today and your continued support and interest in Boise Cascade. We welcome any questions at this time. Felicia, would you please open the phone lines?

(operator instructions) Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I wanted to start on the performance in the general line segment within BMD. It seems like you are outperforming the market there, even with all the noise and some of the shifts that we're seeing in housing broadly.

Can you just talk about what is driving some of that, any of the dynamics that you're seeing across the various products that you're pulling through that segment? And how do you think about the ability to continue to outperform that, as you execute on your own initiatives?

Yeah. Hi,Sue. This is Kelly, good morning. Hope you're well. So as you know, and as we flagged in our commentary, general line is continues to be a focus for us. In terms of increasing that portion of our sales mix. And we do think it continues to show up well. We have really good alignment with our supplier base and also downstream to our dealer base where those products and services are desired. And so nothing maybe that I'd really specifically call out, but yes, to continue to be a focus.

I'll let Jeff maybe just a little bit more color here.

This is Jeff. I just thought you on the general line. All the projects that we've done and the growth that we've done in our footprint has allowed us to go deeper and wider in that segment. The millwork piece continues to grow. And one other thing we did is, we lean in really hard during the winter buys and set ourselves up. And we knew this was going to be a distribution from the market and said everything in stock and we continue to grow and move those products right along.

Excuse me. I'm going to just one other final comment on that is, if you think about from our general line of suppliers, our partners, they continue to add to the product mix. So and as you think about their SKU intensity there, either continue to grow their SKUs and their optionality. And that's really great for us on the distribution side to support that and so that I think is part of our the tailwind as well as they introduce new products and new services. That's an important part of what we need to execute on their behalf as well.

Okay. That's very helpful color. And then switching to EWP as you add the incremental veneer capacity that comes through and it allows you to grow the volumes in EWP. How are you thinking about that relative to the pricing dynamic for those products? And what's your ability to sort of manage those in the next couple of quarters?

Yeah, I would say Sus, it's Nate. I think, in terms of our EWP footprint. I mean, as you know, our commitment was making sure that we have the right capabilities, including all of our input materials, specifically on veneer side.

So making sure that we had the right quantity, quality and price before that's for veneer was an important part of what we need to get done as an organization. I think as we think about going into competing in the marketplace moving forward, we're going to remain obviously centric on what the market needs, and what our customers require.

So in terms of that, that supply demand balance that will continue to be part of how we think about it. We can feel very good about the capability that we continue to build and as we head into the over the next couple of years with if we have a favorable housing environment specifically single-family. Again, we think we're really well positioned to serve and support our customers in that kind of environment.

So nothing we're going to continue to kind of build that capability. And as Kelly described in his comments, some of that activity will begin here in the third and fourth quarter into early next year and making sure that we have on those kind of capabilities in Oakdale among other spots.

Okay. And then just following up on that really quickly. As the builders are positioning to add supply in the back half, there's still really busy on the spec side of things. What does that mean for EWP pricing as you think about the next couple of quarters?

I think for EWP, I would say in general, Su. EWP is really an important part of the builders story. In terms of what they need to get accomplished. And I think specifically, there is one of the things they continue to focus on cycle times. And how do they take complexity out of the job site and add speed and efficiency to the job site.

So as I think about the what EWP brings to that and to the builder, that's an important deliverable for them moving forward and what they need to get accomplished on reducing cycle times.

So I think, in terms of our the EWP presence, again, we feel good how we're kind of setup going through the balance of this year. And again, we'll stay very close to our builder partners on what they're seeing and experiencing and making sure that again, our products and services are set up to support them as they navigate their way through the second half of this year.

Yeah. Okay. And I just want to squeeze one more in, which is on the capital allocation side of things. It's good to see you starting to get into those buybacks you've done, I think $100 million year-to-date through July, which is nice to see in there.

Any thoughts on how you approach that last 1.2 million shares that are available on the authorization. I think it's 1.2 million and overall, in terms of shareholder returns, that versus the special dividend?

Yeah. Thanks. This is Kelly. Yeah, and you have the right data you laid out there. So maybe just let me think about, let me speak to kind of priorities as it relates to capital allocation just a little bit more broadly as we go through the back half of the year. We're going to be focused on executing our capital -- capital program, which we do have a big lift ahead of us here in the second half of the year to hit our target.

In terms of shareholder returns, we did announce that the nice special dividend recently, and I expect we'll continue to be opportunistically in the market buying back shares. No specific to layout as to how much a win for you today, but I think that will continue to be part of our playbook. And then we do have obviously the capability to do M&A, more M&A if the right opportunity surfaces.

Maybe just one brief color that I'd give you on that, which is that we did close on a small acquisition just yesterday. In Boise, Idaho, actually a small door millwork operation. That's an existing business, a small entity, but it does have facility does have employees, and so it gives us a nice running start into the Boise market. So we were happy to get that done.

That's great to hear. Okay. Thank you, both for all the color and good luck with everything.

Kurt Yinger, D.A. Davidson.

Great. Thanks and good morning, everyone. It's hoping to just start off on EWP and I was hoping you could maybe just frame kind of the overall competitive backdrop you're seeing in the markets at this stage. And as you move into the back half of the year, what are you looking at that, maybe gives you more optimism that perhaps we're near a bottom on pricing or conversely that things could perhaps get a little bit more challenging here Over the back half?

Kurt Yinger, Tory Little. I'll start and then others can jump in. In terms of, you saw the pressure that we had in the second quarter some sequential decline in our pricing. We remain targeted on how we approach that, it's a geographical situation and so we continue to evaluate. And then we're kind of anticipating as we look out into the third quarter, that pressure is still there as we kind of finished up Q2, and so we see that kind of playing out a little bit more in Q3.

So right now, we're still modeling kind of sequential decline in that low to mid single digit. And then that point, depending on kind of where things are at relative to buyers on the sideline with the elevated mortgage rates and the home affordability. kind of see where that goes from there.

In terms of I guess the divergence between maybe markets that are softer versus stronger. Is that primarily I guess, just dictated by demand in those markets at this stage or maybe the presence of different competitors, how would you kind of frame that, Troy?

Yeah. I mean, it's probably both, but it's the competitors what they're doing. We're looking at that responding accordingly so that's probably the driver.

Okay. Makes sense. And then second, Jeff, I think most will sort of describe the demand environment thus far as kind of modestly disappointing relative. Maybe what people had hoped a couple of months ago. Are you seeing that sentiment reflected and how your major customers on the BMD side are discussing inventory levels heading into the fall and in your mind, does that create any risk around potentially some level of destocking materializing in the back half?

I would say this, on the commodity side, without a doubt, we're seeing it a bit slower. On the general line is very much steady is how I kind of describe it. And what the customers are saying to us. There is not one major area of product from what we're hearing were while we were overstocked on something that's there's a commonality to it at all.

And we talk to our customer base there. If there might be a pocket here or there on a certain product or they feel a little bit heavy. But overall, what everyone is telling us is no, there's not going to be a major destocking, but people are going to buy exactly what they need. And we're seeing that and feeling it. And that without a doubt, that plays into a distribution from the market and we're -- there's no doubt we're seeing it right now.

Got it. Okay. Appreciate the color. Thank you.

(operator instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.

Thanks so much. Hi, everyone. Good morning. I hope you can hear me okay. Hey, thanks for all the details. Two questions to start piggybacking off the last two questions. So Jeff, I noticed that working cap to sales, inventory to sales in BMD is up on a percentage basis versus a year ago.

And more broadly Kelly, the working capital is up from prior quarters. Now some of that may just be natural pricing, right? You're saying you have higher price, perhaps an inventory based on prior trends relative to what's happening in the market right now.

But are there any areas where you need to manage maybe to your earlier question down a little bit and how do you feel about managing against any inventory risks to the P&L, relatedly, with demand being what it is and price and maybe being off in commodity into the third quarter, obviously, anything can change. How do you feel about BMD margins third quarter versus second quarter, at least directionally if you can give us any thoughts there? Thank you.

You bet George, this is Kelly. I'll take a swing at those to start here. So in terms of BMD's overall net working capital, you are correct, it is up, and in many cases, that's very intentional. If you think about we now have BROSCO in the mix we didn't a year ago.

We're now starting up door shops in Kansas City, starting up door shops in Denver. So things like that, are certainly showing up, and that's intentional, and that's purpose for. As it relates to commodities, right now, it just doesn't feel like there's a whole lot of downside risk. There might be we're seeing a little bit of logs and lumber, we'll see. But I think we are very well positioned in terms of days on hand and days on order, in terms of our car inventory.

So you put all that together. I think in short, I'd say we feel good about where we're positioned and we would expect, as you get into a seasonally softer period into the fourth quarter, we will start to see some generation from working capital seasonally coming down as expected.

Okay. No, thanks for that, Kelly. I know it's hard to call. But given that things are as you anticipated and you said that commodities not a lot of downside risk from here again, who knows, but given what we're seeing, given what you're saying. Then what a decent placeholder to hold your BMD margins relatively, consistently in 3Q versus 2Q, if you feel comfortable even commenting to that. figured I'd get one shot.

Yeah, sure. So I'll take a shot. As I sit here today, I would say, yes, that's reasonable to assume our gross margins can be similar in the third to what they were in the second. There's always the caveat was might we get some surprises on pricing in (inaudible) specifically in commodity. So yes, on gross margin. On EBITDA margin, I would expect that to again, if our sales base stays off 5% relative to second quarter revenue growth, that would constrain our our EBITDA margins a little bit. So we'd be more probably in the mid fives as opposed to high fives if that all plays out.

Okay.

Hey, George, It's Nate. Maybe just another quick comment on that. Is some good Kelly described it well. And if you think about the, I think the environment that will be in as we go through the second half of this year and largely have been in it for a while. The dependenceof that our customers have a warehouse remains high. And so if you think about that kind of the margin profile and that's it to make sure we're that safe harbor for our customers and our suppliers that they have confidence that we're going to material on the shelf ready to serve and support them kind of no matter what the market conditions provide.

So that's part of, who we are in the distribution side of things and that will remain an important part of our game plan as we move through the second half of this year.

Okay. Thanks for that, Nate. Last question for me in this round and piggybacking on Kurt's question earlier. So as you think about competition and EWP and recognizing this is open mic and all that and you have your own commercial strategies. How much of the competition is coming from producers have similar engineered wood products and how much if you how to think about it maybe a quarter, two quarters ago of the pressures coming from Open Web trusses and things like that or substitution, recognizing it's many ways it can be two sides of the same coin. How would you have us think about those things and what it means more importantly, really now into Q4 into 2025. Thanks, guys.

Hey, George. Pedro, it's Nate. I'll take a shot at that and others can jump in. I think, EWP in terms of the competitive landscape is largely around look- like competitors in terms of producing I-joists and laminated veneer lumber. So that's I think the kind of the starting point for the conversation.

There's always questions potentially on plate and floor trusses or dimensional lumber. But largely, our team is to really kind of navigate the alike competitors that are out there. And again, I said mentioned earlier, I think EWP is well-positioned on support of the builders and what they need to get accomplished on cycle time. So again, we feel good about how that shows up relative to some of the other competitive alternatives that are out there.

Thank you, Nate.

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Yeah. Thank you, Nate, Kelly, Chris, for taking my questions and congrats on a good quarter despite the challenging environment.

I just wanted to follow up quickly on George's question regarding the EBITDA margin. I guess, the homes -- the point around sales pace, and whatnot. But how do you think about how a higher quality mix should impact your EBITDA margin as well? Because from what I understand the 3Q is typically a higher quality mix quarter. So we think the benefit should that have that might be able to offset some of the is the slower sales pace you're seeing?

Yeah, you're headed in the right direction there, Mike, that we would expect to see that generally the general line products do carry a higher gross margin. So to the extent that that becomes a bigger part of your sales mix that does provide you some opportunity. But I would recognize also that 42% was that, that's the biggest number we've had in terms of the sales mix for general line.

We want to continue that to be in the 40%s, but make no mistake, commodities will continue to be important part of the sales mix as well as wholesale as well as EWP.

Got you. And would it be fair to say that with the general line that the 42%, which is the highest on record for the company, as you noted, is something that you think you can maintain in 3Q, or look to maintain on a go-forward basis.

Yeah. I mean, there are some product categories within general line that probably carry a bit more of a seasonal component that are stronger in the second and third, and then they might tail off in the fourth and the first. But I guess, comparatively second to third, yeah, I think we could we should be able to continue it at a similar rate, a similar mix for the third quarter.

Thank you, Kelly. And then there's one last question. Just on in response to Nate's comment about warehouse sales. Given the increase in volatility in the backdrop, have you seen warehouse sales accelerate? I know you got -- your they had represented around 70%, 75% of your mix. That was versus historically around 60%, 65% to 70% have you seen an acceleration beyond that, particularly just given how volatile the environment income?

This is Jeff. Hey, we have absolutely seen the warehouse sales pick up and especially with the uncertainty in the commodity and no real reward for taking a position and people want to rely on it. It's undeniable. And you can see clearly in the data that our warehouse sales are picking up.

Got it. Just one quick follow-up, is that. So are you beyond the 75% that you're quoting call a couple of quarters ago, you now between 75% and 80% in terms of warehouse sales, just a reall ballpark?

No, I don't think I would put us north of 75%, Mike, I think historically is probably more like 65%, and now maybe we're pushing more like 70%.

Got it. Thanks very much, guys. Appreciate it.

Thank you.

Reuben Garner, Benchmark.

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. So question BMD margin question to start, more about the breakdown of margins today versus what they were five to seven years ago. It seems like the gross margin has stabilized data. Materially higher point as of EBITDA, but it looks like maybe the selling distribution costs are a little higher.

Can you talk about why that is that things like the higher mix of warehouse, the higher mix of channel and it those come with higher selling expenses. Is that something that we expect to kind of continue on a go forward? Any other kind of mix or company-specific drivers for that?

Yeah, I think there's a couple of things to speak to re proven that all anecdotally address. And then maybe Jeff can add a little color if need be. But selling distribution in terms of the most recent year-over-year results, really a big part of that is BROSCO, right? So we added a meaningful business with nice margin, but also meaningful selling and distribution expenses. And so that's one thing.

And then just generally, our growth across the system, whether it's BROSCO, whether it's Dallas store network, Houston doors, millwork, et cetera. We've added with more sales, you need to have, more sales folks, more services, more capabilities. And so I think it's just a natural growth because we are carrying more general line products, with that, that is purposeful. Anything you'd add, Jeff.

Yeah. Obviously, we do load up with bodies before on the especially in the lower places you have to have people there before you start producing the sales. So there's kind of a timing effect of that's playing into it as well.

Got it. That's helpful. And then, any specific thing that you'd call out within general line? I know you guys sell a number of products there, and I know that some of it is because of investments you've made to grow. Are you actually seeing kind of organic strength or weakness outside of your investments in any particular categories that we call out?

I would tell you it's really been steady across the board. There are a few areas where we feel like we're picking up some share because we've really committed to making sure we have it on the ground or maybe last year, we did. And that's why I tell you we leaned hard into the winter buying loaded up in certain areas there that I think we have grown. So I'm taking share. But across the board, I'd say it's pretty even.

Hey, Reuben, it's Nate. Maybe just another data point is, I think as we think about the our general line vendors, all of our vendors, but are in the general line we've got there's some terrific brands, terrific franchises that we have the privilege to kind of represent.

So as you think about how they're positioned of who they are, what they're doing and including around innovation and new products, that's a great environment for us and BMB. So again, I would probably speak to not only the product but some of the brands that we represent as well.

Great. And I'm going to sneak one more big picture question and if I could any any thoughts or color you could share on what you're seeing from a mix plus size of home perspective. I know, you guys are usually a pretty early read on some of the building plans that are out there.

And I know volume has been pretty strong on the single-family front, but how much of a headwind do you think there is from the size of the home people mixing down or builders mixing down for affordability reasons? How would you think about that on a go-forward basis?

I think you're right, Reuben, in terms of year-over-year, I think home sizes are off something like 5%and then builders and obviously needing to respond to affordability, concerns for homebuyers are less amenities. And so that does make its way into if you have smaller structures, you have less consumption of wood. Where do we go forward from here, I guess, I'm not sure I'd venture a guess yet. I think it will depend upon the economy. It'll depend on affordability and mortgage rates, but I wouldn't be brave enough to venture to guess where we might go from here.

Great. Thanks. Good luck guys, going forward.

I am actually showing no further questions. So with that being said, I will turn the call back over to Nate Jeorgeson. Nate, please go ahead.

Great. Thank you. We appreciate our joining us this morning morning for our update. And thank you for your continued interest and support of Boise Cascade. Please be safe and be well. Thank you.

This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.