百思買 (BBY) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, and welcome to the Q4 Full Year '23 Earnings Call. My name is Francois, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to your host, Mollie O'Brien, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

    大家好,歡迎來到 23 年第 4 季度全年收益電話會議。我叫弗朗索瓦,我將擔任今天活動的協調員。請注意,此會議正在錄製中。 (操作員說明)我現在將您交給主持人 Mollie O'Brien,開始今天的會議。謝謝。

  • Mollie O'Brien - VP of IR

    Mollie O'Brien - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Corie Barry, our CEO; and Matt Bilunas, our CFO. During the call today, we will be discussing both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, and an explanation of why these non-GAAP financial measures are useful, can be found in this morning's earnings release, which is available on our website, investors.bestbuy.com.

    謝謝大家,早上好。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 Corie Barry;和我們的首席財務官 Matt Bilunas。在今天的電話會議中,我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務措施。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的對賬,以及對這些非 GAAP 財務指標為何有用的解釋,可在今天上午的收益發布中找到,可在我們的投資者網站上獲取。百思買網站。

  • Some of the statements we will make today are considered forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may address the financial condition, business initiatives, growth plans, investments and expected performance of the company and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's current earnings release and our most recent 10-K and subsequent 10-Qs for more information on these risks and uncertainties. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that may arise after the date of this call.

    根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》,我們今天將發表的一些聲明被認為是前瞻性的。這些聲明可能涉及公司的財務狀況、業務計劃、增長計劃、投資和預期業績,並受可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息,請參閱公司當前的收益發布以及我們最近的 10-K 和隨後的 10-Q。公司不承擔更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述以反映本次電話會議日期後可能發生的事件或情況的義務。

  • Later today, we will post a third-party transcript of this call to our Investor Relations website as well as a financial recap slide presentation.

    今天晚些時候,我們將在我們的投資者關係網站上發布此次電話會議的第三方文字記錄以及財務回顧幻燈片演示。

  • I will now turn the call over to Corie.

    我現在將把電話轉給 Corie。

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Today, we are reporting Q4 sales results in line with our expectations and better-than-expected profitability. We knew customers would be looking for joy during the holiday but would also be seeking great value given the pressures of inflation. Consumers responded to our compelling deals, and as we predicted, their shopping patterns were more similar to historical holiday periods than what we saw the last 2 years. Specifically, customer shopping activity was more concentrated on Black Friday week, Cyber Monday and the last 2 weeks of December than last year. Customers continue to choose us for the expertise, service and overall value we provide across all channels. Our customer satisfaction scores indicate that our talented teams and omnichannel capabilities delivered better experiences during the critical holiday period this year compared to both last year and the prepandemic fourth quarter of fiscal '20, especially within our services and delivery experiences.

    大家早上好,感謝您加入我們。今天,我們報告的第四季度銷售業績符合我們的預期,盈利能力好於預期。我們知道客戶會在假期中尋找快樂,但考慮到通貨膨脹的壓力,他們也會尋求巨大的價值。消費者對我們引人注目的交易做出了反應,而且正如我們所預測的那樣,他們的購物模式與我們過去 2 年所看到的歷史假期更相似。具體而言,與去年相比,顧客購物活動更集中在黑色星期五、網絡星期一和 12 月的最後兩週。客戶繼續選擇我們是因為我們在所有渠道提供的專業知識、服務和整體價值。我們的客戶滿意度得分錶明,與去年和 20 財年大流行前第四季度相比,我們的才華橫溢的團隊和全渠道能力在今年的關鍵假期期間提供了更好的體驗,尤其是在我們的服務和交付體驗方面。

  • Throughout the quarter, we were committed to balancing our near-term response to current conditions and managing well what is in our control, while also advancing our strategic initiatives and investing in areas important for our long-term performance. Each and every day, our management team and employees across the company are making tough trade-off decisions. Our Q4 comparable sales were down 9.3% on a year-over-year basis. Our non-GAAP operating income rate of 4.8% was higher than expected. The promotional environment in the fourth quarter was more intense than last year. However, the related financial pressure was less than expected and contributed to a stronger gross profit rate performance.

    在整個季度中,我們致力於平衡我們對當前狀況的短期反應和妥善管理我們控制的範圍,同時推進我們的戰略計劃並投資於對我們的長期業績重要的領域。每一天,我們的管理團隊和全公司的員工都在做出艱難的權衡決定。我們第四季度的可比銷售額同比下降 9.3%。我們的非美國通用會計準則營業收入率為 4.8%,高於預期。第四季度的促銷環境比去年更加激烈。然而,相關的財務壓力低於預期,導致毛利率表現更強勁。

  • As a reminder, we first began to see promotional activity return in the back half of calendar 2021. Since then, it has proliferated across categories, and we would characterize the promotional environment for consumer electronics as essentially normalized back to prepandemic 2019 at this point.

    提醒一下,我們首先開始看到促銷活動在 2021 年下半年恢復。從那時起,它在各個類別中激增,我們將消費電子產品的促銷環境描述為此時基本上恢復到大流行前的 2019 年。

  • We continue to manage our inventory very effectively and are focused on maintaining targeted weeks of supply that we believe are appropriate for the current business trends. Our inventory at the end of Q4 was down 14% from the fourth quarter of last year and is essentially in line with our sales trajectory versus prepandemic fiscal '20. From a merchandising perspective, the largest impacts to our domestic comparable sales decline came from computing, home theater, appliances and mobile phones, partially offset by growth in gaming and tablets.

    我們繼續非常有效地管理我們的庫存,並專注於維持我們認為適合當前業務趨勢的目標供應週數。我們在第四季度末的庫存比去年第四季度下降了 14%,與我們的銷售軌跡與大流行前的 20 財年基本一致。從商品銷售的角度來看,對我們國內可比銷售額下降的最大影響來自計算、家庭影院、電器和手機,部分被遊戲和平板電腦的增長所抵消。

  • Our organics were similar to last quarter with our blended average selling price, or ASP, down low single digits on a year-over-year basis. ASPs will likely continue to be lower on a year-over-year basis as we start the year until we lap the full return of promotional activity that occurred in the second half of last year. Compared to fiscal '20, ASPs continue to be quite a bit higher, and we believe they will likely remain higher going forward. As we've shared previously, this is due to category mix with the growth of higher ASP appliances and large TVs as well as more mix into premium products at higher price points.

    我們的有機產品與上一季度相似,我們的混合平均售價 (ASP) 同比下降低個位數。從年初開始,平均售價可能會繼續低於去年同期,直到我們完成去年下半年發生的促銷活動的全部回報。與 20 財年相比,平均銷售價格繼續高出很多,我們相信它們未來可能會保持較高水平。正如我們之前分享的那樣,這是由於類別組合與更高 ASP 設備和大型電視的增長以及更多以更高價格點混合到優質產品中。

  • I am proud of our team's execution and their relentless focus on providing amazing service to our customers, while also managing the business for future growth, during what continues to be a challenging environment for our industry.

    我為我們團隊的執行力和他們不懈地專注於為我們的客戶提供出色的服務,同時管理業務以實現未來增長而感到自豪,這對我們的行業來說仍然是一個充滿挑戰的環境。

  • As we enter fiscal 2024, macroeconomic headwinds will likely result in continued volatility, and we are preparing for another down year for the CE industry. We are expecting the most comparable sales pressure in the first quarter as year-over-year compares ease through the year. Based on what we can see right now, we believe that calendar 2023 will be the bottom for the decline in tech demand. There are several factors driving the expected return of industry growth, which could occur next year depending on the macro environment. First, we continue to see evidence that much of the growth during the pandemic was incremental, creating a larger installed base of technology products and consumers' health. On average, U.S. households now have twice as many connected devices as they did in 2019. And consumers indicate that more of their tech purchases are need-based than want based.

    隨著我們進入 2024 財年,宏觀經濟逆風可能會導致持續波動,我們正在為 CE 行業又一個低迷的一年做準備。我們預計第一季度的銷售壓力最大,因為與去年同期相比,全年都比較輕鬆。根據我們目前所看到的情況,我們認為 2023 年將是技術需求下降的底部。有幾個因素推動行業增長的預期回報,這可能會在明年發生,具體取決於宏觀環境。首先,我們繼續看到證據表明大流行期間的大部分增長是漸進的,創造了更大的技術產品安裝基礎和消費者健康。平均而言,美國家庭現在擁有的聯網設備數量是 2019 年的兩倍。消費者表示,他們的技術購買更多是基於需求而不是基於需求。

  • For example, in our recent surveys, the majority of consumers indicated that most tech purchases are for functional reasons versus emotional ones. Second, we will start to see the benefit of the natural upgrade and replacement cycles for the tech [bot] early when the pandemic kick in, possibly later this year, depending on the macro environment, even more likely in calendar 2024 and 2025. Historically, customers upgrade or replace their tech every 3 to 7 years depending on the category, with mobile phones on the lower end, computing in the middle and home theater and large appliances towards the higher end of that range.

    例如,在我們最近的調查中,大多數消費者表示大多數技術購買是出於功能原因而不是情感原因。其次,我們將在大流行開始時儘早開始看到技術 [bot] 的自然升級和更換週期的好處,可能在今年晚些時候,這取決於宏觀環境,更有可能在 2024 年和 2025 年。從歷史上看,客戶每 3 到 7 年升級或更換一次他們的技術,具體取決於類別,手機在低端,計算在中端,家庭影院和大型家電在該範圍的高端。

  • Third, this is not a static industry. Billions of dollars of R&D spend by some of the world's largest companies and likely sum we haven't even heard of yet, means innovation is constant, driving interest, upgrades and experimentation. That innovation has largely been paused since the pandemic began and the focus shifted to production. And we believe there will be a desire from our vendor partners to stimulate those replacement cycles or build completely new categories going forward.

    第三,這不是一個靜態的行業。一些世界上最大的公司投入了數十億美元的研發支出,而且可能是我們從未聽說過的數額,這意味著創新是持續不斷的,推動著人們的興趣、升級和試驗。自大流行開始並將重點轉移到生產以來,這種創新在很大程度上已經暫停。我們相信我們的供應商合作夥伴會希望刺激這些更換週期或建立全新的類別。

  • Additionally, there are several macro trends that we believe should drive opportunities in our business over time. For example, cloud and augmented reality will increasingly lead to new capabilities and customer experiences. The cloud solves significant customer pain points by making it much easier and faster to transfer your data and existing device preferences to the next generation of product, which creates customer interest in upgrading more frequently.

    此外,我們認為有幾種宏觀趨勢會隨著時間的推移為我們的業務帶來機遇。例如,雲和增強現實將越來越多地帶來新的功能和客戶體驗。雲可以更輕鬆、更快速地將您的數據和現有設備偏好轉移到下一代產品,從而解決客戶的重大痛點,從而激發客戶更頻繁地升級的興趣。

  • In the augmented reality space, we believe significant developments are coming that will generate dramatic change in many products over time. Also, the recent government infrastructure funding allocated to expand broadband Internet access to more Americans provides additional support for these macro trends and incremental access to broadband is proven to help fuel tech demand. And as we noted, since the beginning of the pandemic, the vendor community has been more focused on making product rather than refreshing product. And we believe the industry will get back to more of a normalized pace of meaningful innovation towards the end of calendar 2023 and into 2024.

    在增強現實領域,我們相信重大發展即將到來,隨著時間的推移,許多產品將發生巨大變化。此外,最近分配給更多美國人的寬帶互聯網接入的政府基礎設施資金為這些宏觀趨勢提供了額外的支持,事實證明,增加寬帶接入有助於推動技術需求。正如我們所指出的,自大流行開始以來,供應商社區更加專注於製造產品而不是更新產品。我們相信,到 2023 年底和 2024 年,該行業將恢復到更正常的有意義創新步伐。

  • Specific innovation we expect to see this year in our larger product categories include dual-screen and foldable laptops in computing and personalization in large appliances. In home theater, beyond traditional panel innovation, we're seeing more of a lifestyle type approach to innovation. For example, there's growing popularity of new high-performance audio and video products, including TVs, projectors and speakers that more seamlessly blend into a room versus older technology that takes up a substantially larger physical footprint in the home.

    我們希望今年在更大的產品類別中看到的具體創新包括雙屏和可折疊筆記本電腦的計算和大型家電的個性化。在家庭影院中,除了傳統的面板創新之外,我們看到更多的是一種生活方式類型的創新方法。例如,新的高性能音頻和視頻產品越來越受歡迎,包括電視、投影儀和揚聲器,它們可以更無縫地融入房間,而舊技術在家中佔用的空間要大得多。

  • While all our product categories have slightly different timing nuances, in general, they are poised for growth in the coming years. In addition, we are continuing our expansion into newer categories like wellness technology, personal electric transportation, outdoor living and electric car charging. We are the CE experts and the best place for customers to see existing and new tech and get advice and support.

    雖然我們所有的產品類別在時間上都略有不同,但總的來說,它們都有望在未來幾年實現增長。此外,我們正在繼續擴展到更新的類別,如健康技術、個人電動交通工具、戶外生活和電動汽車充電。我們是 CE 專家,也是客戶了解現有技術和新技術並獲得建議和支持的最佳場所。

  • In our August 2020 earnings call, during the first year of the pandemic, we said we believed customer shopping behavior would be permanently changed in a way that is even more digital and puts the customer entirely in control to shop how they want. And our strategy was to embrace that reality and to lead, not follow. With that as a backdrop, we are building out our suite of unique assets that deliver customer experiences no one else can, and that we believe makes us the compelling retailer of the future.

    在我們 2020 年 8 月的財報電話會議上,在大流行的第一年,我們表示我們相信客戶的購物行為將以一種更加數字化的方式永久改變,並讓客戶完全控制他們想要的購物方式。我們的策略是接受現實並領導,而不是跟隨。以此為背景,我們正在構建一套獨特的資產,以提供其他人無法提供的客戶體驗,我們相信這將使我們成為未來引人注目的零售商。

  • As we do this, we are carefully balancing our short- and long-term initiatives given the volatile environment. There are 5 main areas we are strategically focused on. We will not dive deeply into all of them today: one, evolving our omnichannel retail model; two, building customer relationships through membership; three, incubating and growing Best Buy Health; four, removing costs and improving efficiency and effectiveness; and five, unlocking reverse secondary market opportunities.

    在我們這樣做的同時,我們正在謹慎地平衡我們的短期和長期計劃,因為環境動盪不安。我們的戰略重點有 5 個主要領域。我們今天不會深入探討所有這些:第一,發展我們的全渠道零售模式;二、通過會員建立客戶關係;三、孵化壯大百思買健康;四、降低成本,提高效率和效益;第五,釋放反向二級市場機會。

  • I will now provide more detail on the evolution of our omnichannel retail map. In fiscal '23, digital sales comprised 33% of our domestic revenue compared to 19% in fiscal 2020. Sales via phone, chat and virtual have also remained significantly higher. Even with that shift, our stores remain a cornerstone of our differentiation. Not only it's 67% of our domestic revenue transacted in our stores, more than half of our identified customers engage in cross-channel shopping experiences.

    我現在將提供有關我們全渠道零售地圖演變的更多詳細信息。在 23 財年,數字銷售額占我們國內收入的 33%,而 2020 財年這一比例為 19%。通過電話、聊天和虛擬進行的銷售額也保持高得多。即使發生這種轉變,我們的商店仍然是我們差異化的基石。不僅我們 67% 的國內收入在我們的商店進行交易,而且我們超過一半的已確定客戶參與跨渠道購物體驗。

  • And of course, more than 40% of online sales are picked up in stores. Further, we play an incredibly important role for our vendors as the only national CE specialty retailer who can showcase their products and help commercialize their new technology. We were already a leading omnichannel retailer heading into the pandemic. However, we knew that in order to stay relevant in an increasingly digital age, we needed to evolve our omnichannel retail model strategy. And within that, our portfolio of stores needed to provide customers with differentiated experiences and multichannel fulfillment.

    當然,超過 40% 的在線銷售額是在實體店提貨的。此外,作為唯一一家可以展示其產品並幫助其新技術商業化的全國 CE 專業零售商,我們對我們的供應商發揮著極其重要的作用。我們已經是進入大流行的領先全渠道零售商。然而,我們知道,為了在日益數字化的時代保持相關性,我們需要改進我們的全渠道零售模式戰略。其中,我們的商店組合需要為客戶提供差異化體驗和多渠道履行。

  • We also needed them to become more cost efficient to operate while remaining a great place to work. Over the past 3 years, we have been optimizing our store staffing model to reflect the changes in customer shopping behavior and to fuel investments in higher wages. We have also been rapidly testing different store formats and operating models.

    我們還需要他們在保持良好工作場所的同時,提高運營成本效益。在過去的 3 年裡,我們一直在優化我們的門店人員配置模型,以反映顧客購物行為的變化,並推動對更高工資的投資。我們也一直在快速測試不同的商店格式和運營模式。

  • During those 3 years, we closed approximately 70 large format stores, or 7%, including 17 closing this week through our normal stringent lease review process. At the same time, we opened 4 new stores, including new smaller store formats and relocated 6 stores. In addition, we completed 44 remodels to our 35,000 square foot experienced store format. Finally, we boosted our technology development and our digital tools, including our app, to drive customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction and increased efficiency in our stores.

    在這 3 年中,我們關閉了大約 70 家大型商店,佔 7%,包括本週通過我們正常的嚴格租賃審查程序關閉的 17 家。同時,我們開設了 4 家新店,包括新的小店業態,並搬遷了 6 家店。此外,我們對 35,000 平方英尺的經驗豐富的商店格式完成了 44 次改造。最後,我們加強了技術開發和數字工具(包括我們的應用程序),以提高客戶滿意度、員工滿意度並提高門店效率。

  • Now I would like to provide our high-level plans to refresh our U.S. store portfolio over the long term. We will continue to close an average of 15 to 20 traditional large-format stores per year through our normal lease review process. We will also continue to scale our experienced store remodels. As we have shared previously, this format has more premium experiences in a 35,000-square-foot selling area, showcasing the very best of Best Buy.

    現在我想提供我們的高級計劃,以長期更新我們的美國商店組合。我們將繼續通過正常的租賃審查流程,每年平均關閉 15 至 20 家傳統大型商店。我們還將繼續擴大我們經驗豐富的商店改造規模。正如我們之前分享的那樣,這種形式在 35,000 平方英尺的銷售區域擁有更多優質體驗,展示了 Best Buy 的精華。

  • We will decrease the selling square footage and adjust the assortment and merchandising strategy in many of our stores. The shift to digital sales and the resulting lower in-store revenue, in addition to a much larger percent of high ASP appliances sales, has pressured our operating model and working capital. For context, roughly 80% of the SKUs we display on our sales floor sell one or fewer per week. In these core medium-sized stores, some of the selling square footage will be shifted into larger backrooms. So the total square footage of these stores is not expected to change materially. Our stores have multiple purposes now, and a larger backroom provides better support for other capabilities like our high rate of in-store pickup of online orders.

    我們將減少銷售面積並調整我們許多商店的分類和銷售策略。向數字銷售的轉變以及由此導致的店內收入下降,以及高 ASP 家電銷售額的更大百分比,給我們的運營模式和營運資金帶來了壓力。就上下文而言,我們在銷售區展示的大約 80% 的 SKU 每週售出一個或更少。在這些核心的中型商店中,一些銷售面積將轉移到更大的後台。因此,預計這些商店的總面積不會發生重大變化。我們的商店現在有多種用途,更大的後台可以更好地支持其他功能,例如我們在線訂單的高店內提貨率。

  • In addition, we see significant opportunity to leverage these larger store warehouses and our supply chain expertise to help our vendor community fulfill a larger portion of their direct-to-consumer channel. In addition, we will open more outlet stores that support our value-focused customers. These stores are driving a higher mix of new and reengaged customers in addition to a better financial recovery on open box and return product.

    此外,我們看到了利用這些更大的商店倉庫和我們的供應鏈專業知識來幫助我們的供應商社區實現更大一部分直接面向消費者渠道的重要機會。此外,我們將開設更多直銷店,以支持我們注重價值的客戶。除了開箱和退貨產品的更好財務回收外,這些商店還推動了新客戶和重新參與客戶的更多組合。

  • Over time, we believe we can also leverage these outlet locations to help our vendor community with their own open box and refurbished goods that are coming from other channels. As it relates to our small format pilots that focus on tech Essentials, we will continue to monitor them to determine the go-forward plan. We believe there is an opportunity for these to be growth vehicles in underserved urban neighborhoods as well as small remote markets. We're utilizing a market-based approach to evolve our stores. This means we're moving away from a one-size-fits-all model to a portfolio comprised of store formats and fulfillment solutions appropriately sized and working together to efficiently serve our market.

    隨著時間的推移,我們相信我們還可以利用這些銷售點位置來幫助我們的供應商社區使用他們自己的開箱和來自其他渠道的翻新商品。由於它與我們專注於技術要素的小型試點相關,我們將繼續監控它們以確定前進計劃。我們相信這些有機會成為服務欠缺的城市社區和小型偏遠市場的增長工具。我們正在利用基於市場的方法來發展我們的商店。這意味著我們正在從一種放之四海而皆準的模式轉變為由商店形式和履行解決方案組成的組合,這些解決方案規模適當,並共同努力以有效地服務於我們的市場。

  • From a timing perspective, as you would expect, we're going to phase these changes in line with how the business evolves. We view our store portfolio evolution as a long-range rolling plan, continually making adjustments each year with a sustainable annual investment over time. For fiscal '24 specifically, our plans include closing 20 to 30 large format stores, implementing 8 experienced store remodels and opening around 10 additional outlet stores. In addition, we plan to complete 2 remodels of our medium core format.

    從時間的角度來看,正如您所期望的那樣,我們將根據業務發展的方式分階段進行這些更改。我們將商店組合的發展視為一項長期滾動計劃,每年不斷進行調整,並隨著時間的推移進行可持續的年度投資。具體來說,對於 24 財年,我們的計劃包括關閉 20 到 30 家大型商店,實施 8 家經驗豐富的商店改造,並開設大約 10 家額外的直銷店。此外,我們計劃完成 2 次中型核心格式改造。

  • We expect to incur approximately $200 million in capital expenditures for both these physical store changes and routine store resets and maintenance. This is down approximately $100 million from last year. Of course, at the same time, we will continue to evolve our operating model to match the lower selling square footage and the ongoing evolution of our business model. Over the past 3 years, our overall head count has declined by approximately 25,000 people, or 20%, as we adapted to the shift in customer shopping behavior and in the effort to drive more flexibility.

    我們預計這些實體店變更和日常商店重置和維護將產生大約 2 億美元的資本支出。這比去年減少了大約 1 億美元。當然,與此同時,我們將繼續發展我們的運營模式,以適應較低的銷售面積和我們業務模式的持續發展。在過去 3 年中,我們的總人數減少了大約 25,000 人,即 20%,因為我們適應了客戶購物行為的轉變並努力提高靈活性。

  • Our most recent restructuring activities will allow us to invest more in our customer-facing labor and at the same time, drive increased ability to flex labor spend with revenue fluctuations. Stepping back, we expect the evolution of our store portfolio and operating model to drive sales lift and efficiencies over time. Most importantly, these changes are necessary to relieve the pressures of a changing world, a world in which customers are in control and increasingly more digital and the cost to operate physical stores such as rent and labor are not likely going to come down.

    我們最近的重組活動將使我們能夠更多地投資於面向客戶的勞動力,同時提高靈活調整勞動力支出以應對收入波動的能力。退後一步,我們預計我們的商店組合和運營模式的演變將隨著時間的推移推動銷售增長和效率。最重要的是,這些變化對於緩解不斷變化的世界的壓力是必要的,在這個世界中,客戶處於控制之中,數字化程度越來越高,而經營實體店的成本(例如租金和勞動力)不太可能下降。

  • Now I'd like to talk about membership and its role in driving deeper relationships with our customers. As we said last quarter, in fiscal 2024, we will continue to iterate our programs based on the macro environment and what is most relevant to our customers. I'll start with an update on our entry tier of membership are my Best Buy program. For context, we have approximately 100 million members, with 40 million to 45 million members active per year.

    現在我想談談會員資格及其在推動與客戶建立更深層次關係方面的作用。正如我們上個季度所說,在 2024 財年,我們將繼續根據宏觀環境和與客戶最相關的內容迭代我們的計劃。我將首先更新我們的入門級會員是我的百思買計劃。就背景而言,我們擁有大約 1 億會員,每年有 4000 萬至 4500 萬活躍會員。

  • My Best Buy has long been a points-based loyalty program. The efficacy of points programs has been declining over time as we analyze the data and talk to our customers, we found free shipping resonated even more than 1% back on their purchases. As a result, earlier this year, we added free shipping for all purchases with no minimum purchase. At the same time, we transitioned the ability to earn points solely to purchases made on our co-branded credit cards.

    My Best Buy 長期以來一直是基於積分的忠誠度計劃。隨著我們分析數據並與客戶交談,積分計劃的功效一直在下降,我們發現免費送貨對他們的購買產生了超過 1% 的回饋。因此,今年早些時候,我們為所有無最低消費的商品添加了免費送貨服務。與此同時,我們將賺取積分的能力轉變為僅通過我們的聯名信用卡進行的購買。

  • Our credit card members will continue to earn 5% back in rewards on their purchases at Best Buy in addition to flexible financing options. Thus far, feedback indicates that the changes are resonating with our customers. Moving on to TotalTech, our comprehensive paid membership that includes 24/7 technical support, product protection for all your tech products, special member pricing and much more. We launched it, knowing it was a bold new membership program, unlike anything else in the retail industry.

    除了靈活的融資選項外,我們的信用卡會員在 Best Buy 購物時將繼續獲得 5% 的返現獎勵。到目前為止,反饋表明這些變化引起了我們客戶的共鳴。轉到 TotalTech,這是我們全面的付費會員資格,包括 24/7 全天候技術支持、所有科技產品的產品保護、特殊會員定價等等。我們推出它時,知道這是一個大膽的新會員計劃,不同於零售業的任何其他計劃。

  • Our investment thesis remains very much intact. Members are engaging more frequently with us, shifting their tech spending to Best Buy and buying more cross-category than nonmembers. Additionally, members continue to rate our experiences higher. Our Net Promoter Scores from TotalTech members remain considerably higher than nonmembers. Like we did with My Best Buy, we have been studying these customers closely in the first year of the program to really understand what drives not just acquisition, but engagement with us.

    我們的投資論點仍然完好無損。與非會員相比,會員與我們的互動更加頻繁,將他們的技術支出轉移到 Best Buy 併購買更多跨類別商品。此外,會員繼續對我們的體驗給予更高的評價。我們來自 TotalTech 會員的淨推薦值仍然遠高於非會員。就像我們對 My Best Buy 所做的那樣,我們在該計劃的第一年一直在密切研究這些客戶,以真正了解是什麼不僅推動了收購,而且推動了與我們的互動。

  • We're going to use that data to evolve our membership proposition. For example, we will tailor the offer with the intention of retaining customers at increasingly higher levels, and, at the same time, explore a tiered approach that may resonate with an even bigger population of customers.

    我們將使用這些數據來改進我們的會員提議。例如,我們將根據留住更高級別客戶的意圖來定制產品,同時探索可能會引起更多客戶群共鳴的分層方法。

  • We mentioned on our November call that we plan to iterate in ways that reduce the cost to serve, and we're leveraging member usage and retention data to do so. We've made 2 small changes already with more planned this year. These 2 changes were adding back restocking fees for certain product returns and removing free same-day delivery as a benefit.

    我們在 11 月的電話會議上提到,我們計劃以降低服務成本的方式進行迭代,並且我們正在利用會員使用情況和保留數據來實現這一目標。我們已經進行了 2 項小更改,今年還計劃進行更多更改。這 2 項更改是為某些產品退貨增加補貨費用,並取消免費當日送達作為一項福利。

  • From a financial perspective, we lapped the financial pressure from the initial investment impact late in Q3, and the program had a neutral year-over-year impact on Q4. We expect membership to contribute to operating income rate expansion from here as the program continues to build and we iterate on the offering. In fiscal '24 specifically, we expect our membership program changes, including My Best Buy changes, to drive approximately 25 basis points of enterprise operating income rate expansion, which will primarily be in the back half of the year. We expect to share more details on the coming plan changes on our May call.

    從財務角度來看,我們在第三季度末緩解了初始投資影響帶來的財務壓力,該計劃對第四季度的同比影響為中性。隨著該計劃的繼續建設和我們對產品的迭代,我們預計會員資格將有助於從這裡擴大營業收入率。具體來說,在 24 財年,我們預計我們的會員計劃變化,包括我的百思買變化,將推動企業營業收入率增長約 25 個基點,這主要發生在今年下半年。我們希望在 5 月的電話會議上分享有關即將進行的計劃變更的更多詳細信息。

  • Transitioning to Best Buy Health. The role of technology within healthcare is becoming more important than ever, and our strategy is to enable care at home for everyone. In fiscal '24, we expect to grow Best Buy Health sales faster than the base business. We also expect to drive a higher mix of our more profitable and unique service plans and deliver cost optimization in our active aging business.

    過渡到 Best Buy Health。技術在醫療保健中的作用比以往任何時候都更加重要,我們的戰略是讓每個人都能在家享受護理。在 24 財年,我們預計 Best Buy Health 銷售額的增長速度將快於基礎業務。我們還希望推動我們更有利可圖和獨特的服務計劃的更高組合,並在我們的活躍老齡化業務中實現成本優化。

  • We expect these initiatives to drive approximately 10 basis points of enterprise operating income rate expansion. I want to spend a few minutes on our Care at Home solution that leverages current health, our leading technology platform that brings together remote patient monitoring, telehealth, a full support model and patient engagement into a single solution for health care providers and pharmaceutical companies.

    我們預計這些舉措將推動企業營業收入率擴張約 10 個基點。我想花幾分鐘介紹一下我們的居家護理解決方案,該解決方案利用當前的健康狀況,我們領先的技術平台將遠程患者監控、遠程醫療、全面支持模型和患者參與整合到一個面向醫療保健提供者和製藥公司的單一解決方案中。

  • Boosted by its affiliation with Best Buy, Current Health had its best commercial booking year ever last year, and we now have relationships with 5 of the top 10 largest health systems in the U.S. These names include Geisinger, Mount Sinai Health System, NYU Langone Health and others. 40% of our provider clients launched in Q4, demonstrating our momentum.

    在與 Best Buy 的合作的推動下,Current Health 去年取得了有史以來最好的商業預訂年度,我們現在與美國前 10 大醫療系統中的 5 個建立了關係。這些名稱包括 Geisinger、Mount Sinai Health System、NYU Langone Health和別的。我們 40% 的供應商客戶在第四季度推出,展示了我們的發展勢頭。

  • We also just began a 3-year development partnership with Advocate Health. This partnership will leverage Advocate Health's nationally leading hospital-at-home-program, providing care to a population of over 6 million people and Best Buy's technology expertise. Together, we will develop enhanced capabilities and better patient experiences for both Advocate Health and other health systems around the [company.] We are excited about the momentum of Care at Home, but it is still a nascent emerging part of the healthcare industry.

    我們還剛剛開始與 Advocate Health 建立為期 3 年的開發合作夥伴關係。該合作夥伴關係將利用 Advocate Health 全國領先的居家醫院計劃,為超過 600 萬人口提供護理,並利用 Best Buy 的技術專長。我們將共同為 Advocate Health 和 [公司] 的其他衛生系統開發增強的功能和更好的患者體驗。我們對家庭護理的發展勢頭感到興奮,但它仍然是醫療保健行業的新興部分。

  • We are essentially nurturing a startup within a large-scale organization and leveraging Best Buy's core assets, including the Geek Squad to incubate a new business. The revenue contribution is currently very small and will take time to ramp as the Care at Home space matures and expands over the coming years.

    我們本質上是在大型組織內培育一家初創公司,並利用 Best Buy 的核心資產,包括 Geek Squad 來孵化新業務。收入貢獻目前非常小,隨著未來幾年居家護理領域的成熟和擴展,收入貢獻將需要時間來增加。

  • Before turning the call over to Matt, I would like to provide a few updates on our commitment to our employees and communities we serve. We know our employees and the expert service they provide are our core competitive differentiator, and we are maniacally focused on driving positive employee experience and engagement. Of course, the competitive compensation continues to be table stakes, and we've increased our store associate hourly pay approximately 25% in the last 3 years.

    在將電話轉給馬特之前,我想就我們對我們所服務的員工和社區的承諾提供一些最新信息。我們知道我們的員工和他們提供的專業服務是我們的核心競爭優勢,我們瘋狂地專注於推動積極的員工體驗和敬業度。當然,有競爭力的薪酬仍然是籌碼,我們在過去 3 年中將門店員工的時薪提高了約 25%。

  • Additionally, external research supports our belief that employees are increasingly prioritizing human factors of their jobs, including well-being, work life balance, career development and culture, our unique way of managing our portfolio of employee benefits coupled with the intentional approach to provide ladder and lattice career movement at all levels helps counteract the market pressures of rising wage rates in retail. We serve customers in a multitude of ways, in store, in home and virtually, providing many opportunities for employees to upskill and reskill and ultimately choose the path that's right for them at Best Buy.

    此外,外部研究支持我們的信念,即員工越來越重視工作中的人為因素,包括福祉、工作與生活的平衡、職業發展和文化、我們管理員工福利組合的獨特方式以及提供階梯的有意方法各級格子職業運動有助於抵消零售業工資率上漲的市場壓力。我們以多種方式為客戶提供服務,包括店內、家中和虛擬,為員工提供許多提陞技能和再培訓技能的機會,並最終在 Best Buy 選擇適合他們的道路。

  • 60% of our general managers started at Best Buy in non-leadership role, and 94% of our general managers and assistant managers here today were hired internally. We are gratified that our employee retention rates continue to outperform the retail industry.

    我們 60% 的總經理在 Best Buy 開始時擔任非領導職務,今天在場的 94% 的總經理和助理經理是內部聘用的。我們很高興我們的員工保留率繼續優於零售業。

  • From a community standpoint, we finished the year with 52 Best Buy team tech centers and are well on our way to accomplishing our goal of 100. These centers continue to provide young people in our communities with the access, inspiration and opportunity they deserve to help them define their futures. I am proud to say that Best Buy continues to be recognized for the many ways we are supporting our employees and communities. In Q4, we ranked 34th and were the #1 retailer on the Just Capital list that evaluates and ranks the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S. in part on how a company invests in its workers, supports its communities and minimizes environmental impact.

    從社區的角度來看,我們在今年結束時擁有 52 個 Best Buy 團隊技術中心,並且正在順利實現我們 100 個的目標。這些中心繼續為我們社區的年輕人提供他們應得的幫助的機會、靈感和機會他們定義自己的未來。我很自豪地說,百思買繼續以多種方式支持我們的員工和社區而受到認可。在第 4 季度,我們排名第 34 位,是 Just Capital 榜單上排名第一的零售商,該榜單對美國最大的上市公司進行評估和排名,部分原因是公司如何投資於員工、支持其社區並最大限度地減少環境影響。

  • In summary, we believe the macro and industry backdrop will continue to be volatile this year. We have a proven track record of navigating well through dynamic and challenging environments, and we will continue to adjust as the macro evolves. At the same time, we remain incredibly excited about our future. We believe our differentiated abilities and ongoing investments in our business will drive compelling financial returns over time, and we are carefully balancing our reaction to the current environment with focus on our strategic initiatives.

    綜上所述,我們認為今年宏觀和行業背景將繼續波動。我們在動態和具有挑戰性的環境中擁有良好的導航記錄,我們將隨著宏觀的發展繼續調整。與此同時,我們仍然對我們的未來感到無比興奮。我們相信,隨著時間的推移,我們的差異化能力和對我們業務的持續投資將帶來可觀的財務回報,我們正在謹慎地平衡我們對當前環境的反應與對我們戰略舉措的關注。

  • The structural hypothesis we laid out in our investor update last year remains true. There are more technology products than ever in people's home. Technology is increasingly a necessity in our lives, and we uniquely are there for our customers as they continue to navigate this innovative space. We are in this for the long term and believe our purpose to enrich lives through technology is only more relevant in the future.

    我們在去年的投資者更新中提出的結構性假設仍然正確。人們家中的科技產品比以往任何時候都多。技術在我們的生活中越來越成為必需品,當客戶繼續探索這個創新空間時,我們以獨特的方式為他們服務。我們長期致力於此,並相信我們通過技術豐富生活的目標在未來只會更加重要。

  • I will now turn the call over to Matt for more details on our fourth quarter financials and fiscal '24 outlook.

    我現在將電話轉給馬特,了解有關我們第四季度財務和 24 財年展望的更多細節。

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Good morning, everyone. Let me start by sharing details on our fourth quarter results. Enterprise revenue of $14.7 billion, declined 9.3% on a comparable basis. Our non-GAAP operating income rate of 4.8%, declined 30 basis points compared to last year, which is an improvement from previous trends as this was the first full quarter of lapping the rollout of our TotalTech membership offering. Non-GAAP SG&A was $241 million lower than last year and increased approximately 10 basis points as a percentage of revenue. Compared to last year, our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $2.61, decreased 4%. The year-over-year decline in our earnings per share was driven by the lower operating income dollars I just mentioned, which were partially offset by a $0.19 per share benefit from a lower share count, a $0.06 per share benefit from higher interest income and a $0.05 per share benefit from a lower effective tax rate.

    大家,早安。讓我首先分享我們第四季度業績的細節。企業收入為 147 億美元,同比下降 9.3%。我們的非 GAAP 營業收入率為 4.8%,與去年相比下降了 30 個基點,這比之前的趨勢有所改善,因為這是我們推出 TotalTech 會員服務的第一個完整季度。非 GAAP SG&A 比去年減少 2.41 億美元,佔收入的百分比增加了約 10 個基點。與去年相比,我們的非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 2.61 美元,下降了 4%。我們每股收益的同比下降是由我剛才提到的較低的營業收入美元推動的,這部分被股票數量減少帶來的每股收益 0.19 美元、利息收入增加帶來的每股收益 0.06 美元以及每股 0.05 美元受益於較低的有效稅率。

  • While our sales results were down to last year, overall, they aligned very closely with our expectations entering the quarter, including our assumptions on the monthly phasing and the mix of revenue by channel. Our non-GAAP operating income performance exceeded our expectations due to the higher gross profit rate, which included slightly less pressure from promotions than we had expected.

    雖然我們的銷售業績低於去年,但總體而言,它們與我們進入本季度的預期非常吻合,包括我們對月度階段和渠道收入組合的假設。由於較高的毛利率,我們的非 GAAP 營業收入表現超出了我們的預期,其中包括促銷壓力略低於我們的預期。

  • Next, I will walk through the details on our fourth quarter results compared to last year. In our Domestic segment, revenue decreased 9.8% to $13.5 billion, driven by a comparable sales decline of 9.6%. Online revenue of 38% of our total domestic revenue, which was 12th consecutive quarter that our online sales mix was above 30%.

    接下來,我將詳細介紹與去年相比的第四季度業績。在我們的國內業務部門,收入下降 9.8% 至 135 億美元,這是受可比銷售額下降 9.6% 的推動。在線收入占我們國內總收入的 38%,這是我們連續第 12 個季度在線銷售組合超過 30%。

  • As expected, December comparable sales decline of approximately 8% was our best performing month on a year-over-year basis. When comparing to the prepandemic fiscal '20 comparable period, January was our best performing month and the only fiscal month that had positive growth. Our domestic gross profit rate declined 20 basis points, primarily due to lower product margin rates, which were partially offset by favorable service margin rates and the higher profit-sharing revenue from our credit card arrangement.

    正如預期的那樣,12 月可比銷售額下降約 8%,是我們同比表現最好的月份。與大流行前的 20 財年同期相比,1 月是我們表現最好的月份,也是唯一實現正增長的財政月份。我們的國內毛利率下降了 20 個基點,這主要是由於較低的產品利潤率,這部分被有利的服務利潤率和我們信用卡安排的較高利潤分享收入所抵消。

  • The improved service margin rate included a favorable $30 million profit-sharing benefit from our services plan portfolio. Domestic non-GAAP SG&A declined $224 million on lower store payroll cost, reduced incentive compensation and lower advertising expense. Incentive compensation was favorable to last year by approximately $90 million this quarter and $455 million year-to-date. Our store payroll expense was once again favorable to last year, both in dollars and as a percentage of sales.

    提高的服務利潤率包括來自我們服務計劃組合的 3000 萬美元的有利利潤分享收益。國內非 GAAP SG&A 下降了 2.24 億美元,原因是商店工資成本降低、激勵薪酬減少和廣告費用降低。本季度激勵薪酬比去年高出約 9000 萬美元,今年迄今為 4.55 億美元。我們商店的工資支出再次比去年有利,無論是美元還是銷售額的百分比。

  • Next, let me spend a few moments on restructuring. In light of ongoing changes in our business trends, earlier in fiscal '23, we commenced an enterprise-wide restructuring initiative to better align our spending with critical strategies and operations as well as to optimize our cost structure. We incurred $86 million of such restructuring costs in the fourth quarter and $147 million year-to-date, which primarily related to employee termination benefits. Since we started our Renew Blue transformation 10 years ago, we have been committed to leveraging cost reductions and efficiencies to help offset investments and pressures in our business. Our current target set in 2019 was to achieve an additional $1 billion in annualized cost reductions and efficiencies by the end of fiscal '25.

    接下來,讓我花點時間談談重組。鑑於我們業務趨勢的持續變化,在 23 財年早些時候,我們啟動了一項企業範圍的重組計劃,以更好地使我們的支出與關鍵戰略和運營保持一致,並優化我們的成本結構。我們在第四季度產生了 8600 萬美元的此類重組成本,年初至今產生了 1.47 億美元,主要與員工解僱福利有關。自 10 年前我們開始 Renew Blue 轉型以來,我們一直致力於利用成本降低和效率來幫助抵消我們業務中的投資和壓力。我們目前在 2019 年設定的目標是到 25 財年末再實現 10 億美元的年化成本削減和效率提升。

  • During fiscal '23, we reached our $1 billion target. These efforts highlight how we have been adjusting our cost structure to navigate the dramatic changes in our business while balancing the need to invest in our initiatives. Savings from these initiatives are being used to help offset higher labor costs, depreciation and the add-back of incentive compensation.

    在 23 財年期間,我們實現了 10 億美元的目標。這些努力突出了我們如何調整成本結構以應對業務的巨大變化,同時平衡對我們計劃的投資需求。從這些舉措中節省下來的資金正用於幫助抵消更高的勞動力成本、折舊和獎勵性薪酬的增加。

  • Moving to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $1.9 billion in cash. As Corie mentioned, our year-end inventory balance was approximately 14% lower than last year's comparable period, and we continue to feel good about our overall inventory position as well as the health of our inventory. During fiscal '23, we returned $1.8 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We remain committed to being a premium dividend payer. This morning, we announced that we are increasing our quarterly dividend to $0.92 per share, which is a 5% increase. This increase represents the tenth straight year of raising our regular quarterly dividend. After pausing share repurchases earlier this year, we resumed in November and ended the year with $1 billion in repurchases.

    轉到資產負債表。我們以 19 億美元的現金結束了本季度。正如 Corie 提到的,我們的年末庫存餘額比去年同期低約 14%,我們繼續對我們的整體庫存狀況以及我們的庫存健康狀況感到滿意。在 23 財年期間,我們通過股票回購和派息向股東返還了 18 億美元。我們仍然致力於成為優質股息支付者。今天早上,我們宣布將季度股息提高至每股 0.92 美元,增幅為 5%。這一增長代表我們連續第十年提高定期季度股息。在今年早些時候暫停股票回購後,我們在 11 月恢復並以 10 億美元的回購結束了這一年。

  • During fiscal '23, our total capital expenditures were $930 million versus $737 million in the prior year, mainly due to increased store-related investments. Looking to fiscal '24, as Corie discussed, store-related investments are planned to decrease approximately $100 million compared to fiscal '23.

    在 23 財年期間,我們的總資本支出為 9.3 億美元,而上一年為 7.37 億美元,這主要是由於與商店相關的投資增加。展望 24 財年,正如 Corie 所討論的那樣,與 23 財年相比,與商店相關的投資計劃減少約 1 億美元。

  • Let me next share more color on our outlook for fiscal '24, starting with the 53rd week that will occur in the fourth quarter. We expect the extra week in fiscal '24 to add approximately $700 million in revenue and provide a benefit to our full year non-GAAP operating income rate of approximately 10 basis points. The higher operating income rate is primarily driven by the added leverage on SG&A for items such as occupancy and depreciation, which are not impacted by the extra week. As a reminder, the revenue from the extra week is excluded from our comparable sales.

    接下來,讓我從第四季度的第 53 週開始,分享我們對 24 財年前景的更多看法。我們預計 24 財年的額外一周將增加約 7 億美元的收入,並為我們的全年非 GAAP 營業收入率帶來約 10 個基點的收益。較高的營業收入率主要是由於 SG&A 對入住率和折舊等項目的槓桿作用增加,這些項目不受額外一周的影響。提醒一下,額外一周的收入不包括在我們的可比銷售額中。

  • Moving on to our full year fiscal '24 financial guidance, which is the following: Enterprise revenue in the range of $43.8 billion to $45.2 billion, Enterprise comparable sales of down 3% to down 6%, Enterprise non-GAAP operating income rate in the range of 3.7% to 4.1%, a non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 24.5%, non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $5.70 to $6.50. In addition, we expect capital expenditures of approximately $850 million. We expect to repurchase shares during fiscal '24, however, we are not providing a target today. We will continue to assess our overall working capital needs and provide updates as we progress throughout the year.

    繼續我們的全年 24 財年財務指導,如下所示:企業收入在 438 億美元至 452 億美元之間,企業可比銷售額下降 3% 至 6%,企業非 GAAP 營業收入率為3.7% 至 4.1% 的範圍內,非 GAAP 有效稅率約為 24.5%,非 GAAP 攤薄後每股收益為 5.70 美元至 6.50 美元。此外,我們預計資本支出約為 8.5 億美元。我們預計將在 24 財年回購股票,但是,我們今天沒有提供目標。我們將繼續評估我們的整體營運資金需求,並隨著我們全年的進展提供更新。

  • Lastly, we expect interest income to exceed interest expense this year.

    最後,我們預計今年的利息收入將超過利息支出。

  • Next, I will cover some of the key working assumptions that support our guidance, starting with our top line outlook. As we enter the new fiscal year, the consumer electronics industry continues to feel the effects of a broader macro environment. At the high end of our guidance range, we expect comparable sales to be approximately flat as we exit the year. The low end of our guide reflects a scenario where the consumer spending regresses even further from our current levels and lasts longer into the year.

    接下來,我將從我們的頂線展望開始,介紹一些支持我們指導的關鍵工作假設。隨著我們進入新的財年,消費電子行業繼續感受到更廣泛的宏觀環境的影響。在我們指導範圍的高端,我們預計可比銷售額在我們退出今年時將大致持平。我們指南的低端反映了消費者支出從我們目前的水平進一步倒退並持續到今年的情況。

  • Moving next to profitability. Our non-GAAP operating income rate is expected to decline next year due to the SG&A leverage on expected sales decline. We are expecting to drive gross profit rate expansion of 40 to 70 basis points compared to fiscal '23 due to the following actions and initiatives.

    接下來是盈利能力。由於 SG&A 對預期銷售額下降的槓桿作用,我們預計明年的非 GAAP 營業收入率將下降。由於以下行動和舉措,與 23 財年相比,我們預計毛利率將擴大 40 至 70 個基點。

  • First, as Corie discussed, the planned changes to our membership offerings are expected to improve our gross profit rate by approximately 25 basis points. Second, we expect to see benefits from optimization efforts across multiple areas, including reverse supply chain, large product fulfillment and our omnichannel operations. Third, continued growth in Best Buy Health is also expected to contribute to gross profit rate expansion. Lastly, we expect the impacts from promotions, supply chain costs and the profit sharing from our private label credit card to have a neutral impact to our annual gross profit rate compared to this past year.

    首先,正如 Corie 所討論的,計劃中的會員服務變更預計將使我們的毛利率提高約 25 個基點。其次,我們希望從多個領域的優化工作中受益,包括逆向供應鏈、大型產品履行和我們的全渠道運營。第三,百思買健康業務的持續增長也有望推動毛利率擴張。最後,與去年相比,我們預計促銷、供應鏈成本和我們自有品牌信用卡的利潤分享對我們的年度毛利率產生中性影響。

  • Now moving to SG&A expectations. We expect SG&A as a percentage of sales to increase approximately 100 basis points compared to fiscal '23. As we have shared in prior quarters, we expect higher incentive compensation as we reset our performance targets for the new year. The high end of our guidance assumes incentive compensation increases by approximately $225 million compared to fiscal '23. Depreciation expense is expected to increase by approximately $50 million. Store payroll expense, which includes continued investments in store wages, is expected to be approximately flat to fiscal '23 as a percentage of sales.

    現在轉向 SG&A 預期。與 23 財年相比,我們預計 SG&A 佔銷售額的百分比將增加約 100 個基點。正如我們在前幾個季度所分享的那樣,隨著我們重新設定新的一年的績效目標,我們預計會有更高的激勵薪酬。我們指導的高端假設激勵薪酬與 23 財年相比增加了約 2.25 億美元。折舊費用預計將增加約 5000 萬美元。包括對商店工資的持續投資在內的商店工資支出佔銷售額的百分比預計與 23 財年大致持平。

  • Lastly, as you would expect, our guidance reflects our plans to further reduce our variable expenses to align with sales trends.

    最後,正如您所期望的那樣,我們的指引反映了我們進一步減少可變費用以適應銷售趨勢的計劃。

  • Before I close, let me share a couple of comments specific to the first quarter. We anticipate that our first quarter comparable sales will decline approximately 10%, which is similar to our revenue trends during the first 4 weeks of the quarter. We expect our operating income rate to decline at the lower -- as the lower revenue delevers on SG&A dollars that are similar to last year. We expect our gross profit rate to improve compared to last year, with the expansion slightly below the full year outlook I just shared.

    在結束之前,讓我分享一些針對第一季度的評論。我們預計第一季度可比銷售額將下降約 10%,這與本季度前 4 週的收入趨勢相似。我們預計我們的營業收入率將下降至較低水平——因為較低的收入會減少與去年相似的 SG&A 美元。我們預計我們的毛利率將比去年有所提高,增幅略低於我剛剛分享的全年展望。

  • I will now turn the call over to the operators for questions.

    我現在將把電話轉給接線員提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first caller, please go ahead. First caller, please ask your question.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個來電者,請繼續。第一個來電者,請問你的問題。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • It's Michael Lasser from UBS. Corie, you're making all these changes, it seems like in response just to the evolution of the business where, prior to the pandemic, e-commerce penetration was 20%. Now, it's in the 30% range and that inherently changes the profitability of the Enterprise. So the question is, how do you balance maintaining a strong customer experience, while trying to restore the overall margin level back to where it was prior to the pandemic?

    我是來自瑞銀的 Michael Lasser。 Corie,你正在做出所有這些改變,這似乎只是為了響應業務的發展,在大流行之前,電子商務的滲透率為 20%。現在,它在 30% 的範圍內,這從本質上改變了企業的盈利能力。所以問題是,您如何在保持良好的客戶體驗與嘗試將整體利潤水平恢復到大流行之前的水平之間取得平衡?

  • And how much customer erosion and sales erosion are you anticipating this year with all the changes that you're making to some of the membership programs?

    由於您對某些會員計劃所做的所有更改,您預計今年會有多少客戶侵蝕和銷售侵蝕?

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • So the purpose of the changes we're making is, first and foremost, to meet a changing customer. And that's why my -- I led even in my remarks around the measurement of our customer experiences and how across the board in Q4, we have actually continued to see improvement in NPS and the measurement of those experiences. The primary goal, of course, is to create customer experiences that people love. And when they want to come to the store, to meet their needs in the moment, sometimes -- and this is part of what's changed. Sometimes that is I want very rapid fulfillment of my product. I want to pick up in store and have the confidence of grabbing that product.

    因此,我們所做的改變的目的首先是為了滿足不斷變化的客戶。這就是為什麼我的 - 我什至在我關於客戶體驗的衡量以及第四季度全面的評論中,我們實際上繼續看到 NPS 的改進和這些體驗的衡量。當然,首要目標是創造人們喜愛的客戶體驗。當他們想來商店時,有時是為了滿足他們的需求——這是改變的一部分。有時那是我想要非常快速地完成我的產品。我想去商店提貨並有信心購買該產品。

  • Sometimes that is, "I want a deeper, more immersive experience." And what we're learning our way through it is part of why we've done piloting and testing, and we're taking a long time to make changes, or what sometimes we get feedback seems like a long time to make changes is because we want to give this enough room to breathe, to make sure we feel like we're not eroding the customer experience. It's why we are investing more in our frontline associates, who are the ones who are right there meeting the customer in the moment.

    有時就是,“我想要更深入、更身臨其境的體驗。”我們通過它學到的東西是我們進行試點和測試的部分原因,我們需要很長時間才能做出改變,或者有時我們得到的反饋似乎需要很長時間才能做出改變是因為我們想給它足夠的空間來呼吸,以確保我們感覺我們沒有侵蝕客戶體驗。這就是為什麼我們要對我們的一線員工進行更多投資,他們是當時就在那裡與客戶會面的人。

  • And so our priority is not just the cost side. Our priority is actually what does the experience of the future need to look like so that we meet the customer expectations, and we hold ourselves very accountable to the measurement of those experiences.

    因此,我們的首要任務不僅僅是成本方面。我們的首要任務實際上是未來的體驗需要是什麼樣子,這樣我們才能滿足客戶的期望,我們對這些體驗的衡量負有責任。

  • On the membership side -- and we talked about it a little bit in the prepared remarks, what we're trying to figure out is the balance between acquisition of members but also retention of members. And what are those experiences, again, that really keep customers sticky? I mean the whole point of a great membership program is that you remain relevant to your customer base. And now -- I mean it's only been a year. And again, we have relatively low frequency with our customers. And so we're just getting data around what is it that keeps someone frequently enacting with Best Buy. And so it's changes to TotalTech but I think you heard us also mention in there, we see the opportunity potentially for another tier that might be a little bit more value-oriented, might be a little bit more convenience-oriented, but might have broader appeal.

    在會員方面——我們在準備好的評論中談到了一點,我們試圖弄清楚的是獲取會員和保留會員之間的平衡。那些真正讓客戶保持粘性的體驗是什麼?我的意思是,出色的會員計劃的全部意義在於您與客戶群保持相關性。而現在——我的意思是才過去一年。同樣,我們與客戶的交流頻率相對較低。因此,我們只是在獲取關於是什麼讓人們經常使用百思買的數據。所以這是對 TotalTech 的改變,但我想你聽到我們在那裡也提到了,我們看到了另一個層次的潛在機會,它可能更注重價值,可能更注重便利,但可能有更廣泛的上訴。

  • And so I think what we're trying to do is, that's why we also brought my Best Buy into the conversation, we're looking across the entire gamut of what we think we can provide our customers and see the opportunity for a tiered approach all the way from free where you get free shipping, which is really resonating, all the way up to a very comprehensive membership program like TotalTech where you get everything around support. So the goal here, Mike, at the end of the day is to deliver the best possible customer experiences that are important in a new world where a customer is shopping differently.

    所以我認為我們正在努力做的是,這就是為什麼我們也將我的百思買帶入對話,我們正在審視我們認為可以為客戶提供的整個範圍,並看到採用分層方法的機會從免費送貨到真正引起共鳴的免費,一直到像 TotalTech 這樣的非常全面的會員計劃,您可以獲得一切支持。因此,邁克,最終的目標是提供盡可能最好的客戶體驗,這在客戶購物方式不同的新世界中非常重要。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • Okay. My follow-up question is, quarter-to-date, you're trending down 10%. You are expecting within the guidance to be flat by the end of the year. So is the progression from down 10% to flat, is that linear, so we should be expecting steady improvements over the course of the year? And what is -- what is that dependent on in terms of product introductions, execution and the competitive environment?

    好的。我的後續問題是,本季度至今,您的趨勢是下降 10%。您預計到今年年底在指導範圍內持平。那麼從下降 10% 到持平的進展是線性的,所以我們應該期待在這一年中穩步改善?什麼是——在產品介紹、執行和競爭環境方面取決於什麼?

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thank you, Michael. As you said, our guide prudently assumes that inflation persists and the consumers are going -- be continued to make trade-offs around their spend. And so at a high end, the comps progressively improved throughout the year. And like I said, we will exit the year more on the flat to slightly possibly growing as the pressures in the CE industry kind of abate as we progress through the year. So maybe not perfectly linear, but we do expect that at the high end, the sales performance would progressively improve.

    謝謝你,邁克爾。正如您所說,我們的指南謹慎地假設通貨膨脹持續存在並且消費者將繼續圍繞他們的支出進行權衡。因此,在高端,補償在全年逐步改善。就像我說的那樣,隨著 CE 行業的壓力隨著我們今年的進展而有所減輕,我們將在今年更多地持平,可能略有增長。所以也許不是完全線性的,但我們確實預計在高端,銷售業績會逐步提高。

  • At the low end of the guide, we're clearly modeling a more sustained pressure on the CE industry as customers feel the longer effects of the macro pressures of inflation that continue to shift some spend to the activities in travel. So that's kind of the 2 ends of our expectations for next year. But again, at the high end, we do expect our sales and the industry itself to improve as the year progresses, which is consistent actually with what -- some external benchmarking you would look at between NPD and CTA, which would also expect some level of improvement.

    在指南的低端,我們清楚地模擬了 CE 行業更持續的壓力,因為客戶感受到宏觀通脹壓力的長期影響繼續將一些支出轉移到旅遊活動上。這就是我們對明年的預期的兩端。但同樣,在高端,我們確實預計我們的銷售額和行業本身會隨著時間的推移而改善,這實際上與您在 NPD 和 CTA 之間看到的一些外部基準測試是一致的,這也期望達到一定水平的改進。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next caller, please, state your name and company name before asking your question.

    下一位來電者,請在提問前說出您的姓名和公司名稱。

  • Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

    Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

  • It's Karen Short from Credit Suisse. So I have 2 questions. I guess the first question is just, obviously, the midpoint of your sales guide is $1 billion above calendar '19, but EBIT margins are 100 basis points below. So again, calendar '19, but promos seem to be likely consistent in '20 -- calendar '23 relative to 2019. So can you just elaborate on that a little bit?

    我是瑞士信貸的 Karen Short。所以我有兩個問題。我想第一個問題很明顯,你的銷售指南的中點比 19 日曆年高出 10 億美元,但息稅前利潤率比 100 個基點低。再說一次,19 年日曆,但 20 年日曆中的促銷似乎可能與 2019 年保持一致——23 年日曆相對於 2019 年。那麼你能詳細說明一下嗎?

  • And then with respect to the members that you called out, $100 million is clearly a very strong number in terms of members for My Best Buy, TotalTech. Can you just give a little color on what percent of sales those members represent? And then maybe some color on how you could better leverage that program?

    然後關於您召集的成員,就 My Best Buy、TotalTech 的成員而言,1 億美元顯然是一個非常大的數字。您能否簡單說明一下這些成員佔銷售額的百分比?然後也許有一些關於如何更好地利用該程序的顏色?

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. I'll start and then Corie can jump in too. I think the comparison you're talking about is this year compared to FY '20 -- or calendar 2019, if you think about our business -- for me the biggest change from this past year to 2019 is within gross margin in the 2 very big factors that have lower gross margin since that time are: one, supply chain costs that are much higher. Part of that is the online mix that has grown, and the other part of that would be supply chain inflation that hopefully, we would see abate over time.

    當然。我會開始,然後 Corie 也可以加入。我認為你所說的比較是今年與 20 財年(或 2019 日曆年)相比,如果你考慮我們的業務 - 對我來說,從過去一年到 2019 年的最大變化是在 2 的毛利率內自那時以來毛利率較低的主要因素是:第一,供應鏈成本高得多。其中一部分是在線組合的增長,另一部分是供應鏈膨脹,希望隨著時間的推移我們會看到這種膨脹。

  • The second biggest impact to gross margin has been our rollout of the membership offering, which, during the quarters last year, when we weren't fully lapped, it was almost 100 basis points of pressure compared on a year-over-year basis. So those are the biggest impacts compared to that 2019 period, which was gross margin...

    對毛利率的第二大影響是我們推出了會員服務,在去年的幾個季度裡,當我們還沒有完全覆蓋時,與去年同期相比,它的壓力幾乎是 100 個基點。因此,與 2019 年期間的毛利率相比,這些是最大的影響......

  • SG&A was -- rate was rather similar to 2019. And so what you do have there is you have savings compared to store labor being down. And then you have offsetting that a bit is the investments we've been making in technology and depreciation coming through from higher capital.

    SG&A 是 - 費率與 2019 年非常相似。因此,與商店勞動力下降相比,你所擁有的是你有儲蓄。然後你抵消了一點是我們一直在技術方面進行的投資和來自更高資本的折舊。

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • On the membership side, let me make sure I clarify the numbers. We have about 100 million My Best Buy members, of which 40 million to 45 million are active. On the TotalTech side, we currently have 5.8 million members. That's compared to 4.6 million we had last year. So those are kind of the 2 pools of membership that we're talking about. And we haven't given the percent of sales of those members, but you can imagine, it's a fairly high percent of sales between those 2 membership pools.

    在會員方面,讓我確保我澄清了數字。我們有大約 1 億的 My Best Buy 會員,其中有 4000 萬到 4500 萬活躍。在 TotalTech 方面,我們目前擁有 580 萬會員。相比之下,我們去年有 460 萬。所以這些就是我們正在談論的兩個成員群體。我們沒有給出這些會員的銷售額百分比,但您可以想像,這兩個會員池之間的銷售額百分比相當高。

  • I think we see a lot of opportunity to continue to engage with those members. As you can imagine, with a My Best Buy program that large, we know a lot about those customers. And we are able to tailor to those customers. We know even more about our TotalTech members, of course. And I think we see a future where we're able to tailor more direct opportunities, sales opportunities with them. We also can see potentially that if we look at a tiered approach, there's a whole another tranche of customers who might be interested in doing more with us and having a longer relationship with us.

    我認為我們看到了很多繼續與這些成員接觸的機會。可以想像,有了這麼大的“我的百思買”計劃,我們對這些客戶了解很多。我們能夠為這些客戶量身定制。當然,我們更了解我們的 TotalTech 成員。而且我認為我們看到了一個未來,我們能夠與他們一起定制更多直接機會和銷售機會。我們還可以潛在地看到,如果我們採用分層方法,就會有另一批客戶可能有興趣與我們一起做更多事情並與我們建立更長期的關係。

  • And now as we're heading during the second year of TotalTech, we're learning a lot. We think we're going to drive more engagement through a more personalized approach. We're working on our onboarding process for new members so they really understand what's available to them. And we're leveraging some of our existing vehicles so that people understand everything that we do from consultations, all the way through services, all the way through trade-in and some of the other offers. And then, of course, this speeds into some of our Best Buy Ads model, where we can tailor our advertising to specific audiences based on what we know about them. So this pool of customers is really vital to us, and I think we are continuing to improve the way we engage with them, and also drive their engagement back with us.

    現在,隨著 TotalTech 進入第二年,我們學到了很多東西。我們認為我們將通過更加個性化的方法來推動更多的參與。我們正在為新成員制定入職流程,以便他們真正了解他們可以使用什麼。我們正在利用我們現有的一些工具,以便人們了解我們從諮詢、服務、以舊換新和其他一些優惠中所做的一切。然後,當然,這會加速進入我們的一些百思買廣告模型,我們可以根據我們對他們的了解為特定受眾定制我們的廣告。所以這個客戶群對我們來說真的很重要,我認為我們正在繼續改進我們與他們互動的方式,並推動他們與我們的互動。

  • Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

    Karen Fiona Short - Research Analyst

  • Any chance you could just tease out a renewal rates?

    您是否有機會梳理出續訂率?

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • We haven't given renewals, and we're not going to. And as you can imagine -- I mean they've been relatively in line with our expectations. You can imagine, there are some places where we see much better engagement and renewals and people who engage in things like support or who value the warranty side of TotalTech as an example, they are very, very interested in renewing. And so I think that's -- when we talk about tailoring the program for the future, we're looking for those customers who find value in some of the more unique aspects of the program and stick with the program because they see the value in that.

    我們還沒有續約,我們也不會。正如你想像的那樣——我的意思是它們相對符合我們的預期。您可以想像,在某些地方,我們看到更好的參與度和更新,以及從事支持或重視 TotalTech 保修方面的人,例如,他們對更新非常非常感興趣。所以我認為——當我們談論為未來量身定制該計劃時,我們正在尋找那些在該計劃的一些更獨特方面發現價值並堅持該計劃的客戶,因為他們看到了其中的價值.

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next caller, please go ahead.

    下一位來電者,請繼續。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • It's Seth Sigman from Barclays. Nice to talk to you. My first question is just around pricing and the promotional environment. I think the point that you made is that Q4 actually ended up being a little bit less promotional. Can you just elaborate on that? And then as you think about this calendar year, it does seem like a lot of retailers are planning conservatively in this category. I guess what have you reflected here in the guidance for gross margin specifically related to discounting and promotional activity?

    我是巴克萊銀行的 Seth Sigman。很高興和你聊天。我的第一個問題是關於定價和促銷環境。我認為您提出的觀點是,實際上第四季度的促銷活動最終有所減少。你能詳細說明一下嗎?然後當你想到這個日曆年時,似乎很多零售商都在保守地規劃這一類別。我猜你在與折扣和促銷活動具體相關的毛利率指導中反映了什麼?

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. Just to recap, in Q4, we did see product margin rates lower in Q4, driven by on a year-over-year basis of more promotionality. What we did see compared to expectations is actually a little less pressure from promotionality even though we were expecting it to be more promotional year-over-year. As we look into next year, our guide reflects, I think, it's -- one of my comments in prepared remarks was the combination of product margin rates, [city] profit share and supply chain, we're going to be pretty neutral to the whole year. That doesn't mean that in some quarters, it might be a little better, a little worse. But for the most part, next year, we're assuming that it's a fairly neutral impact of [a broad] promotionality, not that some quarters might also be more promotional from a pricing perspective, the impact of that promotionality might not actually manifest in the financial pressure.

    當然。回顧一下,在第四季度,我們確實看到第四季度的產品利潤率有所下降,這是由於促銷活動同比增長所致。與預期相比,我們確實看到的是促銷的壓力實際上要小一些,儘管我們預計它會比去年同期更具促銷性。當我們展望明年時,我認為我們的指南反映了——我在準備好的評論中的評論之一是產品利潤率、[城市]利潤份額和供應鏈的結合,我們將非常中立全年。這並不意味著在某些方面,它可能好一點,也可能差一點。但在很大程度上,明年,我們假設這是[廣泛的]促銷活動的相當中性的影響,而不是從定價的角度來看某些季度也可能更具促銷性,這種促銷活動的影響可能不會真正體現在財務壓力。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then I guess, just thinking about demand in general, there's obviously a few factors battling each other here. There's a lot of consumer noise. You also have pull forward in your category. You talked about replacement cycles. I guess I'm just trying to think about elasticity as you start to see ASPs come down, and we can't really see it on a category level, we only see it in aggregate. But are there any signs of maybe elasticity starting to kick in here? Just curious how you're thinking about that.

    好的。然後我想,只要考慮總體需求,顯然有幾個因素在這里相互競爭。有很多消費者的聲音。您在您的類別中也有前瞻性。您談到了更換週期。我想我只是在嘗試考慮彈性,因為您開始看到 ASP 下降,我們無法真正在類別級別上看到它,我們只能看到它的總體情況。但是這裡是否有任何彈性開始發揮作用的跡象?只是好奇你是怎麼想的。

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • Yes. I think you started with what makes the conversation a little bit difficult, which is the incredibly varied indicator that are out there with the consumer right now, right? Everything from historically strong job markets, spending continues specifically on services even more so than goods. Inflation might be slowing, but it still is sustainably high.

    是的。我想你是從什麼讓談話有點困難開始的,這是目前與消費者一起出現的令人難以置信的變化指標,對吧?從歷來強勁的就業市場來看,支出繼續特別是在服務上,甚至比商品更多。通脹可能正在放緩,但仍處於持續高位。

  • And it's high in some of the basics like food, fuel and lodging, right? And when the basics are where that sustainable inflation is, it does mean the customer is going to make trade-off decisions. And I think we've used the same language now for probably 3 quarters. You've got an uneven and unsettled consumer who, from a confidence perspective looking forward, is still not confident about the future. And so I think what we are trying to position ourselves for is the best possible value for that consumer when they're ready in the moment. And I feel like in Q4, I think we've played that very well.

    它在食物、燃料和住宿等一些基本條件上很高,對吧?當基礎是可持續通貨膨脹所在時,這確實意味著客戶將做出權衡決定。而且我認為我們現在使用相同的語言可能已經有 3 個季度了。你有一個不穩定且不穩定的消費者,從信心的角度來看,他們對未來仍然沒有信心。因此,我認為我們正在努力為自己定位的是,當消費者準備好時,為他們提供最好的價值。我覺得在第四季度,我認為我們打得很好。

  • Our pricing was very competitive. Our price perception was very competitive. And so you can see in spot as there is a better deal to be had, you can see the consumer reacting. But no matter what, it's against this overlay of a consumer who's going to make trade-off decisions based on their own budget and their own life.

    我們的定價非常有競爭力。我們對價格的看法非常有競爭力。所以你可以當場看到有更好的交易,你可以看到消費者的反應。但無論如何,它都反對消費者根據自己的預算和自己的生活做出權衡決定的疊加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next caller, please go ahead.

    下一位來電者,請繼續。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • It's Steven Forbes from Guggenheim. Corie, Matt, I wanted to focus on trends within consumer electronics. If I look at the disclosures here in the press release, obviously, some apparent challenges in that category. So was hoping that you can expand on what you're seeing across the major subcategories within? And then maybe highlight how that is impacting the cadence of comp, right, that you're expecting for 2023?

    我是古根海姆的史蒂文·福布斯。 Corie、Matt,我想關註消費電子產品的趨勢。如果我查看新聞稿中的披露,顯然,該類別中存在一些明顯的挑戰。那麼希望您可以擴展您在其中的主要子類別中看到的內容嗎?然後也許強調這將如何影響你對 2023 年的 comp 節奏,對吧?

  • I would imagine part of that is improvement within those subcategories. But any color there would be helpful.

    我想部分原因是這些子類別中的改進。但是那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Sure. I think generally speaking, when you look at 2023, with a minus 3% to minus 6% range, most categories are going to still feel pressure as you look at the year. Most generally would also see a progressive improvement as the year -- at the high end of our range as well. Categories are -- would be very different spots if you think about the last few years. If I think about computing, computing is still a much bigger category compared to where it was prepandemic. It's still seeing more pressure -- compared to the total, just because of the demand it's seen over the last number of years.

    當然。我認為一般來說,當你看 2023 年時,在負 3% 到負 6% 的範圍內,大多數類別在你看這一年時仍然會感到壓力。大多數情況下,今年也會出現逐步改善——也在我們範圍的高端。如果您考慮過去幾年,類別是 - 將是非常不同的地方。如果我考慮計算,與大流行前相比,計算仍然是一個更大的類別。與總壓力相比,它仍然承受著更大的壓力,這僅僅是因為過去幾年的需求。

  • Appliances, again, also a very big category, growing quite a bit over the last number of years as well, seeing a bit of pressure as we start to rightsize some of that spend, but also just as it relates to the housing market being a little pressure, which -- this is a category that does have some impact from that, although a great deal of -- it is still a direct purchase. There is a housing impact. So those -- TVs we would expect actually potentially for that to be a place where we could outperform the company average as we look into this coming year. We -- in Q4, we did see a little bit of ASP pressure. As you look into next year, we believe that potentially could see some opportunity as you get into future quarters. And so those are some of the bigger trends.

    同樣,家電也是一個非常大的類別,在過去幾年中也有相當大的增長,當我們開始合理調整部分支出時看到了一些壓力,但也因為它與房地產市場相關壓力很小,這是一個確實會產生一些影響的類別,儘管影響很大 - 它仍然是直接購買。有住房影響。因此,我們預計電視實際上有可能成為我們展望來年時表現優於公司平均水平的地方。我們 - 在第四季度,我們確實看到了一點 ASP 壓力。當您展望明年時,我們相信隨著您進入未來幾個季度,可能會看到一些機會。因此,這些是一些更大的趨勢。

  • The last one I probably mentioned is mobile phones. It had a sales decline in Q4, which is pretty similar to the company average. And if you compare it to prepandemic, a much smaller category as people are holding on to their phones quite a bit longer than they used to. But as you look into the year against continued improvement generally across a lot of the categories. The one area we have been seeing strength is gaming. We mentioned gaming and tablets as being a growing category in Q4. We are seeing more availability of gaming consoles, which is helping to sales trends. And so potentially an area where we see some more positive as we move into this next year. But again, a lot of that is dependent upon overall all demand as it's getting longer in its launch and availability aspect.

    我可能提到的最後一個是手機。它在第四季度的銷售額下降,與公司平均水平非常相似。而且,如果將其與大流行前相比,這是一個小得多的類別,因為人們使用手機的時間比以前長得多。但是,當您回顧這一年時,許多類別的總體情況都在持續改善。我們一直看到優勢的一個領域是遊戲。我們提到遊戲和平板電腦是第四季度增長的類別。我們看到遊戲機的可用性越來越高,這有助於推動銷售趨勢。因此,當我們進入明年時,我們可能會看到一些更積極的領域。但同樣,這在很大程度上取決於總體需求,因為它在發布和可用性方面的時間越來越長。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • That's helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up, maybe for you, Corie. Curious about vendor conversations today as compared to maybe past cycles or even just the depth of the COVID are -- your comments about helping them with their direct-to-consumer sales, direct-to-consumer open-box returns, et cetera. Maybe just help phrase, right, how the relationships have evolved here, and how you sort of expect them to evolve over the coming quarters and years just given the challenges that are out there?

    這很有幫助。然後也許只是一個快速跟進,也許對你來說,科里。與過去的周期相比,甚至與 COVID 的深度相比,今天對供應商的對話感到好奇——你對幫助他們進行直接面向消費者的銷售、直接面向消費者的開箱退貨等的評論。也許只是幫助說明一下,對吧,這裡的關係是如何演變的,以及考慮到那裡存在的挑戰,你希望它們在未來幾個季度和幾年內如何演變?

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • Yes. This is an interesting space for us because obviously, our vendor partners they want to succeed as well. And so when we think about things like promotionality, the question we got earlier around elasticity, these are great partnership discussions that we can have with our vendors as we think about how best to stimulate the market. And I said it a couple of times, but it bears repeating, our vendors are highly incented to continue to innovate on their products and to create the new products for the future. I mean obviously, no one's going to sit on their laurels and wait for the customers to come back. People are constantly trying to innovate in a way that will drive demand. And we are really the best place to highlight particularly that new innovation. And so the vendor partnerships have continued to evolve over time with that as the backdrop.

    是的。這對我們來說是一個有趣的空間,因為顯然,我們的供應商合作夥伴也希望獲得成功。因此,當我們考慮諸如促銷之類的事情時,我們之前提出的關於彈性的問題,這些都是我們在考慮如何最好地刺激市場時可以與供應商進行的很好的合作討論。我說過幾次,但值得重複的是,我們的供應商非常有動力繼續創新他們的產品並為未來創造新產品。我的意思是很明顯,沒有人會固步自封地等待客戶回來。人們不斷嘗試創新,以推動需求。我們確實是特別強調這項新創新的最佳場所。因此,在此背景下,供應商合作夥伴關係隨著時間的推移不斷發展。

  • I think we often talk about the physical experiences with our vendors, and that remains important. Our partners continue to invest in our existing stores. And I think you can see some really beautiful vendor experiences in the 35,000 square foot remodels that we're doing as well as even some of the smaller stores that we're testing, where you have just a different take on vendor experience. So there still is this real investment and interest in how a vendor shows up in a physical experience.

    我認為我們經常與供應商討論實際體驗,這仍然很重要。我們的合作夥伴繼續投資於我們現有的商店。我認為你可以在我們正在做的 35,000 平方英尺的改造中看到一些非常漂亮的供應商體驗,甚至在我們正在測試的一些較小的商店中,你可以看到供應商體驗的不同之處。因此,對於供應商如何在實際體驗中出現,仍然存在這種真正的投資和興趣。

  • But on top of that, there are so many new spaces where we're developing some different and unique partnerships. We have developed some interesting partnerships around our membership offerings. We have developed really interesting partnerships with Best Buy Ads and how they think about the access to the hundreds of millions of customers that we have that we know very well, and they can target very directly. We have deep services partnerships in many cases, we're an Apple authorized repair facility, and we're building out that services infrastructure with other partners.

    但最重要的是,我們正在開發一些不同且獨特的合作夥伴關係的許多新空間。我們圍繞我們的會員服務開發了一些有趣的合作夥伴關係。我們與 Best Buy Ads 建立了非常有趣的合作夥伴關係,以及他們如何考慮接觸我們非常了解的數億客戶,他們可以非常直接地定位。在許多情況下,我們擁有深入的服務合作夥伴關係,我們是 Apple 授權的維修機構,並且我們正在與其他合作夥伴一起構建該服務基礎架構。

  • And then to your point, we're starting to see some real opportunity in supply chain and fulfillment. We have a program that's called Partner Plus. We currently have 6 partners on it. Samsung is one of those where you can actually order online at Samsung and have it fulfilled in our stores. And I think there are so many spaces, especially in an industry where like we said 40% of what we sell online is picked up in store. So there is this like intricate want and need on our customer base to physically have access to that product, and we can partner pretty uniquely with some of our vendors to help provide that experience for them. And we can see a lot of opportunity for that into our future.

    然後就您的觀點而言,我們開始在供應鍊和履行方面看到一些真正的機會。我們有一個名為 Partner Plus 的計劃。我們目前有 6 個合作夥伴。三星是其中之一,您可以實際在三星在線訂購併在我們的商店中完成。而且我認為有很多空間,尤其是在我們所說的在線銷售商品中有 40% 是在商店提貨的行業中。因此,我們的客戶群對實際訪問該產品有著複雜的需求,我們可以與我們的一些供應商進行非常獨特的合作,以幫助為他們提供這種體驗。我們可以在未來看到很多機會。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next caller, please go ahead.

    下一位來電者,請繼續。

  • Gregory Scott Melich - Senior MD

    Gregory Scott Melich - Senior MD

  • It's Greg Melich with Evercore ISI. Really 2 questions. One, Corie, I think you mentioned that average selling prices are still up from where they were a few years ago. If the 3-year comp is flattish, should we assume that ASPs are maybe up 10% and transactional counts are down 10%. Would that be a fair estimate?

    我是 Evercore ISI 的 Greg Melich。真的2個問題。第一,科里,我想你提到過平均售價仍然比幾年前高。如果 3 年比較持平,我們是否應該假設平均售價可能上漲 10% 而交易數量下降 10%。這是一個公平的估計嗎?

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • Well, we're not going to give the precise numbers, but directionally how you're thinking about it is essentially what we're seeing. And I just want to make sure I underscore 1 more time on the ASP side of things structurally versus calendar 2019 or fiscal 2020, you've really got 2 big things happening. And that is the mix and the category mix is quite different. Larger percent of our revenue now coming from appliances and large TVs. And also second, within our categories, the mix in the premium products has increased. And I think those 2 actually reflect some of the strengths of our model, our ability to really tailor those more premium experiences, our ability to deliver and install that large cube. I think it's -- sometimes it gets a little lost in some of the other inflation conversation. That's not what's happening here. What's happening here is, structurally, we're making what I think are some really positive changes within the business model.

    好吧,我們不會給出精確的數字,但從根本上說,你對它的看法基本上就是我們所看到的。而且我只是想確保我在結構上與 2019 年日曆或 2020 財年相比在 ASP 方面再強調一次,你真的有 2 件大事正在發生。那就是組合,類別組合是完全不同的。現在我們的收入中有很大一部分來自家電和大型電視。其次,在我們的類別中,優質產品的組合有所增加。我認為這兩個實際上反映了我們模型的一些優勢,我們真正定制那些更優質體驗的能力,我們交付和安裝那個大立方體的能力。我認為它 - 有時它會在其他一些通貨膨脹對話中變得有點迷失。這不是這裡發生的事情。這裡發生的是,在結構上,我們正在做我認為是商業模式中一些真正積極的變化。

  • Gregory Scott Melich - Senior MD

    Gregory Scott Melich - Senior MD

  • Well, I guess that's the natural follow-up. So that's the premiumization with innovation. So I guess as you go through this year in the guide and that improvement in comps from where we are now, is that improvement more based on ASP declines moderating or traffic improving or transactions improving.

    好吧,我想這是很自然的後續行動。這就是創新帶來的優質化。所以我想當你在今年的指南中經歷時,我們現在的 comps 的改進,是更多基於 ASP 的改進減少了緩和或流量改善或交易改善。

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • I think as we go through this coming year, there could be some -- when we start the year, there could be some ASP pressure year-over-year, but not to the extent that we compare it to FY '20, obviously. We believe that will remain elevated. And as you get into the latter part of this year, we'll have to see, but it's probably a bit of growth coming from the industry improving, which means demand is improving, which means it's probably a combination of units improving and potentially, give or take, some ASP increase. Again, we're not guiding it, but we probably see both as you -- our expectation is at the high end is that the industry would continue to grow and demand would come back, which would actually drive more units.

    我認為,隨著明年的到來,可能會有一些 - 當我們開始今年時,可能會有一些 ASP 壓力同比,但顯然沒有達到我們將其與 20 財年進行比較的程度。我們相信這將保持高位。當你進入今年下半年時,我們將不得不看到,但這可能是行業改善帶來的一點增長,這意味著需求正在改善,這意味著它可能是單位改善和潛在的組合,給予或接受,一些ASP增加。同樣,我們並沒有指導它,但我們可能會像你一樣看到兩者——我們的預期是高端行業將繼續增長,需求會回升,這實際上會推動更多的單位。

  • Gregory Scott Melich - Senior MD

    Gregory Scott Melich - Senior MD

  • And then my follow-up is on services, 5% of revenue. Is that basically TotalTech as a majority of that now? Or how should we think about that in terms of building that side of the business?

    然後我的後續行動是服務,佔收入的 5%。現在基本上是 TotalTech 作為其中的大部分嗎?或者我們應該如何考慮建立業務的這一方面?

  • Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

    Matthew M. Bilunas - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes. TotalTech has become majority of that number as it's -- as we launched that membership program, it's replacing more of the stand-alone services sales that we would have had in the stand-alone warranty sales that we would have had. So we've seen it shift into being a TotalTech more based number. There is still stand-alone services and stand-alone warranty sales, but it's shifted to TotalTech.

    是的。 TotalTech 已經成為這個數字的大部分 - 當我們啟動該會員計劃時,它正在取代我們本來可以擁有的獨立保修銷售中更多的獨立服務銷售。所以我們已經看到它轉變為一個更基於 TotalTech 的數字。仍然有獨立服務和獨立保修銷售,但它已轉移到 TotalTech。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We will take 1 last question, then hand over to your host to conclude today's conference. Next caller, please go ahead.

    我們將提出最後 1 個問題,然後交給您的主持人來結束今天的會議。下一位來電者,請繼續。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • It's Scot Ciccarelli with Truist. I know that reduction in incentive comp is a big part of the SG&A swing. But domestic SG&A was essentially flat on a year-over-year basis on a high single-digit comp decline. That's not really easy to do. So does that level of austerity, let's call it, create a situation where retention actually starts to become a challenge, especially in an environment where a lot of other retailers are actually talking about accelerating wage pressures in '23 even on top of '22's levels?

    我是 Scot Ciccarelli 和 Truist。我知道減少激勵補償是 SG&A 波動的重要組成部分。但由於高個位數的下降,國內 SG&A 同比基本持平。這真的不容易做到。那麼這種程度的緊縮,讓我們稱之為,創造了一種情況,在這種情況下,保留實際上開始成為一個挑戰,特別是在許多其他零售商實際上正在談論 23 年甚至超過 22 年水平的加速工資壓力的環境中?

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • Yes. So what's been interesting here, and we said it in the prepared remarks, I mean our average hourly wage is up 25% versus 2019. We were one of the first to move our wages up in August of 2020 to $15 minimum almost 3 years ago. And so we've been making continuous investments in our workforce over the last 3 years. And what we're seeing, and we watch it incredibly closely, our turnover rates are really low compared to industry averages, and they're generally very similar year-over-year. And we -- I mean we've talked about it before. We might not be exactly a prepandemic, but we're still in the like mid-30% turnover range overall. And so that is exactly what we watch to make sure we're trying to strike the right balance here.

    是的。所以這裡有趣的是,我們在準備好的發言中說過,我的意思是我們的平均時薪比 2019 年增長了 25%。大約 3 年前,我們是最早在 2020 年 8 月將工資提高到最低 15 美元的公司之一.因此,在過去 3 年裡,我們一直在對我們的員工隊伍進行持續投資。而我們所看到的,我們非常密切地觀察,與行業平均水平相比,我們的離職率確實很低,而且它們的年同比水平通常非常相似。我們——我的意思是我們之前已經討論過它。我們可能不完全是大流行前,但我們總體上仍處於 30% 左右的營業額範圍內。因此,這正是我們所關注的,以確保我們試圖在這裡取得正確的平衡。

  • We are continuing to invest -- and it's not just wages, it's also hundreds of millions of dollars in benefits over the last 3-year period as well. And of course, we're going to keep monitoring that on a market level basis, but we remain laser-focused on making sure that as we adjust the operating model, we are reinvesting into those employees that we have. And I think, for some of the key roles like our general managers, our turnover is in the mid-single digits, and we tapped before about some of the tenure that we see in our [peak] slot agents or within some of our consultants. So we are very carefully monitoring constantly both the balance of pay and benefits and, frankly, some of the work-life balance and flexibility that our employees are demanding, and we continue to see it reflected, I would argue, in industry-leading turnover numbers.

    我們將繼續投資——不僅是工資,還有過去 3 年數億美元的福利。當然,我們將繼續在市場層面進行監控,但我們仍然專注於確保在調整運營模式時,我們正在對現有員工進行再投資。而且我認為,對於像我們的總經理這樣的一些關鍵角色,我們的營業額在中等個位數,我們之前利用了我們在 [peak] 老虎機代理或我們的一些顧問中看到的一些任期.因此,我們一直非常仔細地監測薪酬和福利的平衡,坦率地說,我們的員工要求的一些工作與生活的平衡和靈活性,我認為,我們繼續看到它反映在行業領先的營業額上數字。

  • Scot Ciccarelli - MD

    Scot Ciccarelli - MD

  • For you when we kind of think about -- this company has taken a lot of cost out over the last, gosh, decade plus (technical difficulty)

    對你來說,當我們考慮——這家公司在過去十年多的時間里花費了很多成本(技術難度)

  • Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

    Corie Sue Barry - CEO & Director

  • Model is always evolving, and there are always new and interesting and different ways to take cost out. I would use -- 1 of the things that we've been talking more about lately is outlets. That is a unique and differentiated customer experience. And we're pulling different customers in who are finding great values and we see a recovery rate. We've said this before, that's 2x what we would see if we were selling that sideways or selling it outside our own channel. Cost reduction is not always about expense reduction.

    模型總是在發展,並且總是有新的、有趣的和不同的方法來降低成本。我會用——我們最近談論得更多的事情之一是網點。這是一種獨特且差異化的客戶體驗。我們正在吸引不同的客戶,他們正在尋找巨大的價值,並且我們看到了恢復率。我們之前已經說過,如果我們橫向銷售或在我們自己的渠道外銷售,那是我們看到的兩倍。降低成本並不總是與減少開支有關。

  • It is often about finding flaws in the experience and then making opportunity kind of out of those flaws. Many of our cost reduction efforts actually have ended up and, I would argue, better employee and customer experiences. If you take some of the TV damage work that we've done over time, nobody wants to bring home a damaged TV, and there's a huge amount of cost in that for us. And so I think what we are trying to do is continuously assess our model. And then given some of the advancements we're seeing, there continues to be opportunity. We see opportunity ahead in how we run our call centers as an example. And that's a space where we've been able to pull cost out and have better customer NPS and experiences.

    它通常是關於發現體驗中的缺陷,然後從這些缺陷中創造機會。我們的許多降低成本的努力實際上已經結束,我認為,更好的員工和客戶體驗。如果你接受我們長期以來所做的一些電視損壞工作,沒有人願意把損壞的電視帶回家,這對我們來說是一筆巨大的成本。所以我認為我們正在努力做的是不斷評估我們的模型。然後鑑於我們看到的一些進步,機會仍然存在。以我們如何運營呼叫中心為例,我們看到了未來的機遇。這是一個我們能夠降低成本並擁有更好的客戶 NPS 和體驗的空間。

  • So this isn't -- I think sometimes it's a zero-sum kind of game that people play in their heads with cost reduction. But I think what the team is doing is really creatively finding kind of flaws in our system. And because it's always evolving, there's always something that we're learning from and evolving. So I'm really proud of the work that the team has done, and I think we continue to have opportunity.

    所以這不是 - 我認為有時這是人們在頭腦中玩的一種零和遊戲,可以降低成本。但我認為團隊正在做的是真正創造性地發現我們系統中的某種缺陷。因為它一直在發展,所以我們總能從中學習和發展一些東西。所以我真的為團隊所做的工作感到自豪,我認為我們繼續有機會。

  • And with that, yes, you bet. I'd love to thank you all so much for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our results and progress during our next call in May. Thank you and have a great day.

    有了這個,是的,你打賭。我非常感謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待在 5 月的下一次電話會議中向您通報我們的結果和進展。謝謝你,祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect your lines.

    感謝您參加今天的電話會議。您現在可以斷開線路。