百思買 (BBY) 2003 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Moderator

  • Ladies and gentlemen,

  • thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Best Buy first

  • quarter earnings conference call for fiscal 2003. At this

  • time, participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we

  • will conduct a question-and-answer session. If you have

  • a question, you will press 1 and 4 on your touchtone phone.

  • As a reminder, this call is being recorded for playback

  • and will be available by 12 p.m. eastern time today. If

  • you need assistance on the call, please press * zero and

  • an operator will assist you. I would like to turn the

  • call over to Mrs. Jennifer Driscoll, vice president of

  • investor relations.

  • Jennifer Driscoll - VP Investor Relations

  • Thank you for joining us

  • today. With me are Richard Schulze our Founder, Chairman

  • and C.E.O., who will provide an overview of our performance

  • and product category; Allen Lenzmeier, president and chief

  • operating officer, who will report on the stores; and Darren

  • Jackson, executive vice president and C.F.O. who will

  • provide our outlook for the second quarter. Kevin Laden,

  • president of our Canadian operations is on the call from

  • the road in Toronto. Also available are Kevin Freeland,

  • president of Musicland stores; Michael Lundon, executive

  • vice president of general merchandising; Susan Hoff,

  • senior vice president of (inaudible); and Bruce

  • Vankle, vp of performance and planning management.

  • As always, comments made by me or others representing

  • Best Buy may contain forward-looking statements, which

  • are subject to risks and uncertainties. Filings contain

  • information about factor that is could cause actual results

  • to differ from management's expectation. I would like

  • to remind (inaudible) listen-only mode. Also, in the and

  • (inaudible) replay instructions. Simply dial 973-341-3080

  • and then enter the personal identification number of

  • 3328297. With that, I will turn it over to Mr. Schulze

  • who will begin our prepared remarks.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Good morning,

  • everyone. I am pleased to report the company's earnings

  • for the first quarter of fiscal 2003 rose 27 percent to

  • $70 million or 22 cents per diluted share, adjusted for

  • our three-for-two stock split. That compares favorably

  • with the earn accident guidance provided in early April

  • of 20 to 21 cents per diluted share.

  • Our revenues for first quarter as reported on June sixth, rose

  • 24 percent, to 4.58 billion. Revenue increase included the

  • impact of new stores opened in the past 12 months, addition

  • of Future Shop revenues and a company comparable store

  • gain of 5.7 percent. We view this increase as quite healthy,

  • particularly in light of the current economic environment.

  • Many of you have asked about the progression of comparable

  • store sales as a barometer of consumer behavior. We saw

  • the strongest comp gains in March, which included an earlier

  • Easter, followed by somewhat less robust sales in April.

  • In May, however, sales picked up again, due in part to

  • a slightly more promotional environment.

  • As you can see, our margins held up well as a result of

  • our strength in both mixed and balance. We will talk about

  • the quarter's business highlights and then comment on our

  • product categories. Afterward, I will turn over to Al

  • for a discussion of results by each business segment.

  • Finally, Darren will give us the financial highlights, as well

  • as an elaboration on our outlook for the next quarter.

  • The business highlights of the quarter were as follows:

  • First, we continued to grow by opening more new stores.

  • In fact, we opened 12 Best Buy stores this past quarter,

  • as well as two Future Shop stores and three Magnolia

  • Hi-Fi stores in the San Francisco market. Our grand opening

  • schedule was heavier than usual, for the first quarter.

  • We also closed a net of 6 mall-based Sam Goody stores

  • that were not meeting our profitability targets. Secondly,

  • we increased comp store sales by 5.7 percent, well ahead

  • of our origin expectations. During the environment that

  • was of course, generally weak for most all of retail.

  • I attribute the increase to the incredible strong product

  • cycle we continue to enjoy. It is truly exciting to see

  • product innovations that extend so far beyond a single product

  • category. Many people, seeing some products for the first

  • time, literally stop and stare because of the difference

  • that is so visually compelling, particularly in the case

  • of digital television, DVD and flat-screen T.V.

  • Thirdly, as a result of new stores in a solid comparable

  • store sales, we believe we continue to gain an overall market

  • share, specifically we believe we achieved share gains in

  • computers, television, as well as many other digital products.

  • We remain North America's top retailer of consumer

  • electronics computers for the home, movies and music.

  • Fourth, we continue to increase the gross

  • margin rate on top of the large gains we made last

  • year, reflecting lower interest rates, which

  • reduce the overall costs that are associated with consumer

  • financing offers. I would like to talk briefly about our

  • product categories.

  • Consumer electronic sales remained our largest product

  • category in the first quarter and add comparable store sales

  • gains in the high single digits. Sales of video products

  • remain very strong, including double digit increases in

  • digital television, digital cameras, as well as DVD hardware.

  • Lower price points are driving the digital television

  • business, which now comprises approximately fully one-third

  • of our overall T.V. revenue at Best Buy stores. DVD

  • players continue very strong, as lower price points and

  • feature products continue to boost household penetration.

  • Advanced features continue to enable us to sell higher-priced

  • digital cameras, while lower priced models fuel the increasing

  • demand.

  • Sales of audio equipment were nearly flat on a comp store

  • basis and declined in home components, speakers and portable

  • products were mostly offset by continued growth in our home

  • theater in a box category. Our home office category grew

  • in the mix, reflecting comp store sales gains in the mid-

  • singles, as well as the inclusion of sales from the Future

  • Shop stores, which have a higher proportion of home office

  • sales, sales of notebook computer grew double digits,

  • reflecting second-time users requirement for portability.

  • Sales of desktop PCs improved, as well, reflecting aggressive

  • pricing in the category.

  • We are modestly optimistic for the desktop computers in

  • the coming quarters. The first quarter included the

  • successful launch of our new private label PCs called VPR

  • matrix. We will continue to use the platform to compliment

  • our brand name assortment. Sales of peripherals also

  • perform very well, particularly networking, hard drives,

  • memory and MP-3 players. Cellular sales were very strong and

  • the growing pre-paid sales have not taken away from our

  • traditional eight plan offers.

  • The third largest category is entertainment software.

  • It had comp store sales gains in mid-single digits. We

  • enjoyed strong sale of video hardware, software and a wide

  • variety of accessories, as well as increased sales in DVD

  • movies. The video gaming category benefited from significant

  • price reductions on Sony and Microsoft hardware, although

  • sales softened somewhat ahead of the anticipated price drops.

  • New releases, strong catalog movies and more affordable prices

  • contributed to strong sales of DVD movies. Sales of pre-

  • recorded music declined, partly due to digital downloading,

  • file sharing, lack of content, lack of recognized artists

  • and a reduction in radio play.

  • Computer software, particularly productivity software

  • performed very well, despite the comp store sales gains

  • in this category, entertainment software declined in the

  • company's overall mix because of the inclusion of Future

  • Shop sales, which have a lower proportion of entertainment

  • software. We had comp store sales declined in the mid-single

  • digits for appliances amid a competitive environment. In the

  • next three quarters, the focus at Best Buy's appliance

  • departments is going to be on improving the in-store

  • experience, having the right products in the right store at

  • the right time, and increasing closed ratio of appliance

  • shoppers. We continue to believe in the long-term future of

  • this business for Best Buy, as well as, of course, Future

  • Shop. Each day more homes are connected to broadband

  • and reengineering this business in the United States will

  • enable us to leverage our relationships with the higher

  • income, technology-oriented consumers that frequently visit

  • our stores.

  • Digital products which tend to carry higher margins, comp

  • prized 19 percent of total sales in the quarter, up from

  • 15 percent in the first quarter of fiscal 2002. We continue

  • to anticipate the sales of digital products will grow to

  • 25 percent of our overall sales by the fourth quarter of

  • this year. Some of you have expressed concern about the

  • promotional environment. In the past quarter, the environment

  • was hotter than it was expected, driven by lower prices

  • on mostly Chinese-produced goods and lower costs in some

  • other categories. Secondly, consumer electronics is now

  • the fashion component of the retail business and more and

  • more competitors are participating in this space.

  • Third, financing is being used as promotional lever. These

  • factors contribute to overall promotional environment that

  • is perhaps more challenging. However, these trends also

  • are allowing us to bring more value to the consumer, which

  • helps support strong comparable store sales gains as we

  • experienced in the first quarter. Remember, we have developed

  • four strong segments and achieved meaningful balance in

  • our overall mix. With that, I would like to turn the

  • conference call over to Al Lenzmeier, our president and chief

  • operating officer. Allen.

  • Allen Lenzmeier - President and COO

  • Thanks and

  • good morning, everyone. This quarter we began reporting

  • in two segments, domestic and international. I will address

  • the two of them in order during my portion of the call.

  • Our domestic segment now includes Best Buy, Magnolia

  • Hi-Fi and Musicland stores. The comparable store sales

  • gain of 6.6 percent was above planned at Best Buy, which

  • accounts for the largest percentage of the sales. Musicland

  • comp declined 1.2 percent and was in line with our

  • expectations. Magnolia Hi-Fi's comp decline of approximately

  • 10 percent was below our expectations.

  • For the combined group, the comps of 5.7 percent was ahead

  • of our expectations. The profitability of these segments

  • was essentially on plan. The gross profit margin rate

  • rose by 20 basis points reflecting a higher proportion of

  • digital product sales and lower costs associated with consumer

  • financing offers. The selling, general and administrative

  • expense rate declined by 10 basis points, reflecting leverage

  • from strong comp store sales gains. The operating income

  • rate improved by 40 basis points.

  • Our international segment includes Future Shop stores in

  • Canada, but will expand to include our first Canadian Best

  • Buy stores in the first quarter in Toronto. We are pleased

  • to report this segment continues to report above-average

  • growth. Comps at Future Shop were above planned at 9.6

  • percent. Operating results were ahead of plan, as well,

  • including investments made to boost the future profitability

  • of Future Shop stores and to prepare for the launch of

  • Best Buy stores in Canada in Toronto.

  • The 50-basis point decline in gross profit rate was

  • due to higher levels of clearance markdowns and product

  • mix shift. As we expected, the SG and A rate rose by 140

  • basis points, as we increased use of outside consultants

  • to promote our process to profits initiative, similar to

  • the initiative we completed at Best Buy stores a few years

  • ago. We expect the benefit of these investments to begin

  • to accrue in the latter part of the year, as we demonstrated

  • at Best Buy stores. Another factor in the SG and A rate

  • was investments and systems and processes to prepare for

  • the launch of the Best Buy stores in Canada.

  • We previously have stated we would incur start-up costs

  • in the first and second quarters related to the launch.

  • Combined these initiatives result indeed 190-basis point

  • decline for international segments. We had expected a

  • loss from international segment of approximately one and

  • a half cents per diluted share, which is where we finished.

  • Recent milestones in domestic business include the following:

  • first, last week we opened our first downtown store in

  • Manhattan. Our new Chelsea location features 35,000 square

  • feet on two floors and illustrates the versatility of our

  • Hi-Fi format. We are optimistic about the store's potential

  • and the New York metropolitan area stores led the country

  • in comp store sales gains again in the first quarter.

  • Second, in the first quarter, we successfully launched

  • the VPR matrix computer line. VPR matrix computers fill

  • gaps in our product line. In July, we will introduce

  • a unique new design created by Porsche or VPR matrix.

  • We tested a change to Best Buy's computer department

  • and it incorporates computer technicians directly in the

  • retail selling space. The change boosted sales in test

  • stores and profitability and will be rolled out to

  • approximately 120 Best Buy stores this year.

  • In addition, we successfully tested in-home pc networking

  • in two markets and are prepare tog start rolling that out

  • this summer. We feel these initiatives will further

  • strengthen our lead in the retail channel and support our

  • customers. Third, during the first quarter, Future Shop

  • opened a fully automated distribution store in Meskuse, Quebec

  • and Courtney, British Columbia. We are on track for eight

  • new Best Buy stores and nine new Future Shop stores

  • in Canada in the current fiscal year. Later this year,

  • we plan to test a 20,000 square foot form at of the Best

  • Buy store in several markets. This new store design is

  • expected to include all four of our product categories and

  • utilize aspects of the Hi-Fi design. We can reach markets

  • with the population of less than 120,000 and would provide

  • the company with yet another avenue for growth.

  • We believe this store size could give us a opportunity

  • to open up an additional 150 locations. At Musicland,

  • we continue to refine our product assortments. For example,

  • we are preparing to rename our small market On Cue stores

  • of Sam Goody and to remerchandise the stores with an expanded

  • assortment of DVD movies and video gaming. We will expand

  • our assortments in these two categories at approximately

  • 250 of our mall-based Sam Goody stores. Our Suncoast

  • stores are enjoying strong store gains due to the popularity

  • of DVD movies.

  • Next, Darren Jackson will provide our outlook for the

  • second quarter.

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • Thanks. Good

  • morning, everyone. Now that we have covered the first

  • quarter results, I would like to give you our outlook for

  • the second quarter. Our assumptions for the second quarter

  • include total sales growth of 23 to 24 percent, including

  • the impact of new stores of comparable store gain of 4 to

  • 5 percent and the addition of Future Shop sales. We

  • are projecting comp gain of 5 percent at Best Buy stores.

  • Essentially flat comps at Musicland and 8 percent gains

  • at Future Shop for the second quarter. We expect our

  • gross margin rate for the enterprise to decline by 30 basis

  • points, reflecting continued strength in the digital products

  • offset by mixed changes at Musicland stores, principally

  • the increase in DVD and video gaming. We also expect

  • to increase our penetration in the lower margin computer

  • business in the second quarter.

  • We anticipate the SG and A rate being essentially flat

  • with the prior year. That brings me to our international

  • guidance for the second quarter. This level of performance

  • would bring us to estimated EPS of 30 to 32 cents per diluted

  • share and average increase of 21 percent, which is in line

  • with projected growth rate for the year and higher than we

  • originally budgeted. This estimate includes approximately

  • 4 cents per share of dilution, related to our investments

  • in remerchandising in Sam Goody stores, launching Best

  • Buy in Canada and (inaudible, background noise) initiatives

  • in Future Shop stores. This investment is equivalent to the 4

  • cents invested in the first quarter in the same initiatives.

  • Today, we will reiterate the full-year guidance, which

  • included growth of 17 to 20 percent and earnings growth

  • of 18 to 21 percent. We feel very confident about that

  • guidance in this current environment. With that, I will

  • return the call to Dick.

  • Thank you. As

  • you know, at the end of this month, I will step aside as

  • the C.E.O. of Best Buy to focus on my new role as Founder

  • and chairman of the board. Brad Anderson will be C.E.O.

  • As many of you know, and he will lead our future earnings

  • conference calls. This was a great deal of confidence

  • I turn over the helm to Brad, who has been my colleague

  • for three full decades. Together, we have built one of

  • the nation's top retailers and it is a gratifying scene

  • and scenario to me that I can place the future of this

  • company in the hands of a truly talented management team.

  • Now, I would like the operator to open up the floor to

  • questions from our investor audience.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. To ask

  • a question, press 1, followed by 4 on your touchtone phone

  • at this time. Our first question is from Bill Julian

  • of Salomon Smith Barney.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning.

  • With respect to the four cents of dilution, which you

  • are referring to in the second quarter here. As you probably

  • know, consensus estimates sit at 33 cents and you are guiding

  • to 30 or 32 cents. Are we to read into this there is nothing

  • new about guidance here and this 4 cents was always planned?

  • Have you changed the timing of cost? Can you give me

  • color on that?

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • That is Darren.

  • We have not changed the timing. Our practice has been

  • to guide during these conference calls on the next quarter.

  • We have never given guidance in terms of a point estimate

  • in the second quarter. So, from our vantage point, nothing

  • has really changed. If you go back to our last call, we

  • had said in the first two quarters of this year, historically

  • Future Shop is break even to losing a little money. We

  • talked on the last call about making investments, particularly

  • in the Sam Goody change. So, from our perspective, things

  • have not changed. That is why when you look at the full-year

  • number you see it inched up a little bit as a result of

  • our first quarter performance. It is a timing event versus

  • any change in guidance. I would say we feel every bit

  • as confident about the year today as we did when we started

  • the year.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Perhaps you can give us

  • just a feeling for what is expected in the third and fourth

  • quarter. Consensus now sits at 32 cents for the third

  • quarter, which implies stronger growth, much stronger

  • than consensus implies in the fourth. Should we look at

  • the timing of profitability in the back half of the year

  • maybe shifting that from the third to the fourth quarter?

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • The short

  • answer is for the year, we still plan on doing the two 10

  • to 2 17. Look at performance last year, we had a strong

  • fourth quarter. I would suggest to you that our third

  • quarter performance in all retail expected this and felt

  • this last year result of September 11th. When we look

  • to the back half of the year, the third quarter would be

  • a place that I think we have a little bit of opportunity.

  • In the fourth quarter, based on our initiatives and store

  • openings, we feel good about that. The third quarter,

  • in relation to where the consensus is seems to be in place

  • where we would look to outperform a little bit.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very

  • much.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. Our next question is

  • coming from Peter Caruso of Merrill Lynch.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you. Good morning.

  • First, Dick, good luck in your new role as Chairman

  • of Best Buy. I hope it is as success employ as your

  • C.E.O. role was. I would like to ask you first, your

  • perspective. You have been through many promotional cycles

  • in this business. This is not the first time we have such

  • a highly consolidated market share where Best Buy circuit,

  • Sears, (inaudible) dominant players and increasingly

  • have to eat each other's lunch to gain market share. Are

  • you committed to remaining the promotional leader no matter

  • what it entails in terms of gross margin over the next year

  • if the market continues to heat up? Who would you name

  • as one or two major competitors you have seen heat the

  • market up the most?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • I suggest

  • you are correct that with the consolidation that has occurred

  • in the framework of the last five or six years in particular,

  • the balance of market share has shifted to a small, but

  • very powerful group of retailers. We have a strong franchise

  • with American consumers. We believe that we have emerged

  • through the process clearly as the branded choice, the

  • preferred retailer for the sale of three of the four

  • categories that are major components for our growing business.

  • I would say that it is incumbent on us to always maintain

  • a balance between the level of promotional activity or the

  • type of representation we will have to be in the game with

  • any and all players that would attempt to try to ratchet

  • market share. We have, however, learned that you don't

  • have to overload the assortment with that type of product.

  • In fact, you are better off by sharpening your offerings,

  • making sure they are competitive, turning them effectively

  • and strategizing for much of the shift that you have seen

  • has taken place in digital products. This is where we

  • feel we have a huge leg up over most of all our competitors,

  • certainly for sure, the discount channel in the purest form,

  • meaning wholesale clubs and mass retailers.

  • The other specialty retailers certainly have similar plans.

  • We just think that the next element of differentiation falls

  • to execution. So, the simple answer is we are definitely

  • going to be in the game, matching off on any and all pricing

  • from wherever it comes to ensure the fact that we are always

  • priced right for our consumers on literally any and all

  • products offered by the mass channel. But, you will see

  • a stave evolution, to higher better quality brand names

  • and technology offerings on our floor, as we continue to move

  • more toward that early adaptor techno file consumer. We

  • think the way we merchandise, display, interact, demonstrate,

  • train, and promote, that we will continue to get more share

  • of footsteps into our stores than any of our direct

  • competitors trying to emulate the same strategy. This got us

  • here and we are fortunate right now because of the market

  • share we occupy and the preference that our stores have shown

  • against any and all competitors that many more suppliers,

  • each and every year, are opting to introduce products on

  • our floor.

  • I feel confident we are well positioned a minimum two-and-

  • a-half to one over the next consumer preference and meaningful

  • share advantage over everybody. So, the one key obvious

  • factor that the rest of the world needs to be aware of,

  • the consolidation that has literally driven a high level

  • of that threshold level type product is now in the hands

  • of the Wal-Mart, Target, K-mart strategy and because of sheer

  • magnitude of the volume of retail stores in the marketplace,

  • they are just bound to do a tremendous amount of business

  • in those categories. It is why they have been so formidable.

  • But, we think that the complexity and the technology of

  • the new digital products will ensure the fact those consumers

  • will stay in our stores.

  • Analyst

  • Do you see anyone other than

  • Circuit City racking up the promotional environment?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • I would

  • ask Michael who is here. Mike, have you seen anybody

  • other than Circuit? They have had aggressive activity

  • on the PC world in the last quarter. Has there been anybody

  • else doing anything?

  • Everybody is behaving as

  • they have in the past. I think one thing that is important

  • as we think about this is that we are just really in the

  • beginning of the digital cycle. I think a lot of us are

  • close to the product and live it everyday. When you go

  • out and talk to consumers and talk about satellite, radio,

  • digital T.V., we are just beginning. As Dick eluded

  • to, the parts of more complex. More and more parts are

  • working together. I think we have the opportunity to offer

  • a wide variety of products of digital cameras, for example,

  • are extremely popular. Take a look at our circular this

  • week. We have prices from 999 to 279. There are

  • a tremendous amount of offering to the consumer as they

  • embrace new digital technology. Even DVD, household

  • saturation is really just beginning.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • The best

  • way to look at it with this promotionality in the most recent

  • quarter, our margins were up, which would suggest we have

  • a great mix and a strong balance and we know how to get

  • to the better quality more profitable products.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you and good

  • luck in the next quarter.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Thank you.

  • Next question.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. Our next

  • question comes from Matt Fassler of Goldman

  • Sachs.

  • Analyst

  • Thanks a lot. Good morning. Dick

  • best wishes to you going forward. A couple of questions.

  • I want to focus on Canada and you spoke about bringing

  • the process to profits efforts to the Future Shop operation.

  • That was obviously very successful for you to say the

  • least, in the United States. Can you comment on where

  • that business is right now? What kind of changes you

  • think you need to make? What the timeframe is to get

  • that operation to targeted profit levels?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Maybe I

  • might ask Allen and Kevin, who is on the phone from Toronto,

  • to comment directly. Obviously Allen is spearheading

  • the process as we know it here. Kevin is on the firing

  • line in Canada. Maybe Allen, give Matt an overview and

  • ask Kevin to fill in the blanks.

  • Allen Lenzmeier - President and COO

  • Matt, that probably was

  • the process at Best Buy in terms of process to profits.

  • I will probably compress it to probably two-year process

  • with respect we are doing to Future Shop up in Canada.

  • We are starting off the areas that we are starting off are

  • advertising effectiveness, as well as assortment management

  • and we are working on that now. We think we can start

  • accruing benefits from that in the latter part of the year.

  • Kevin, expand on that a little bit or -

  • You are correct on the

  • fact we are basically taking on the two-year initiative

  • component of what Best Buy did for process to profit.

  • The biggest benefit actually comes in year two and then

  • our ability to execute beyond that is on the table for us

  • to continue. Certainly from the standpoint of what we

  • are doing now, we are working on advertising effectiveness,

  • number one. Number two is assortment management and number

  • three is inventory in-stock, which Best Buy does a phenomenal

  • job of advertisement as well as regular in-stock. The

  • opportunity of Future Shop in the Canadian marketplace

  • to improve that is substantial. We are in the low 80s

  • as far as in-stock on some regular promotional goods.

  • The ability to take that into the 90s like Best Buy has

  • an upside opportunity for us and the assortment of life cycle

  • management, which we believe will improve operating margin

  • substantially.

  • Analyst

  • Great. I could follow

  • up on the domestic business, gross margin domestically relied

  • the promotional intensity that you spoke about. We have

  • seen some of the 18-month and 24-month no interest financing

  • that has been rocked. At what point would this start to

  • weigh on grosses and how - obviously, no interest financing

  • is cheaper for you, is this something that has no cost at

  • this point? We shouldn't focus on historical paradox

  • for promotional extremes?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • I think the financing

  • vehicle is probably one of many vehicles that we use,

  • Matt, in terms of the promotional strategy. Obviously,

  • with interest rates down, it probably in the past quarter,

  • anyway, we have used it more extensively. Again, it may

  • vary by month, depending on the promotional climate out

  • there in terms of the vehicle we use for financing and rebates

  • and pricing, whichever is the most effective vehicle, we

  • will use that vehicle.

  • Do you have sense this

  • is a lever likely to be used for protractive period of time?

  • That is what Matt wants to get his hands around. Is

  • there extended use of it?

  • Go back to what Al said.

  • This is a lever we use. We understand

  • what happens to levers frequently and it is just a technique

  • for us to go to market when appropriate.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Another

  • thing that is important for you to know like follow to Peter's

  • question. We are not going to withdraw from the use of

  • any of the levers we feel is important and appropriate to

  • make sure we are in the game on each and every sale. So,

  • we are not letting anybody slide in anywhere with anything

  • that we are not willing to respond to or ready to respond

  • to.

  • Analyst

  • Got you. Thank you very

  • much.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. Our next

  • question is from Allen Rifkin of Lehman Brothers.

  • Analyst

  • My congratulations and

  • best of luck, dick in future endeavors. Taking your comments

  • with respect to Peter's question together with Darren's

  • comments on the gross margin drivers. Darren did not mention

  • in his comments that increased promotional would have a

  • detrimental affect on margins in the second quarter. Do

  • you think the near-term outlook with respect to promotional

  • activity may actually subside as compared to Q1?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • The best

  • way to go at that is generally to suggest that it is only

  • when promotional activity does not carry with it appropriate

  • financial benefit or performance from those using it that

  • they go back to the toolbox to look for new and different

  • ways. That is why it was such an important question is

  • if disproportionate gains were made from extraordinary offers

  • and unresponsive, you can bet they will continue. The very

  • fact our margins continue to strengthen certainly has a

  • lot to do with the mix of product that we sell. It also

  • suggests we know how to get to the category of product.

  • This is, of course, digital offerings.

  • That is something we have that the purest discount channel

  • does not offer and the ability to connect it up and integrate

  • it with existing products, it continues to be a competitive

  • advantage for a store like ours. Our sense is that if others

  • need to stimulate the market, disproportionately in the face

  • of whatever their activity might be, it is incumbent

  • on us to make sure we are in step with what happens in the

  • market to make sure we hang on to customers and remain the

  • preferred store.

  • I think we have enough

  • tools in the tool kit to have the flexibility to move around

  • here and if it does get promotional, I think we have proven

  • in the past, we are pretty successful at if margins are

  • impacted, we are able to offset that with increased revenue

  • so the bottom line impact is pretty negligible. If

  • it is promotional, we are confident we can drive more revenue

  • to offset whatever margin dilution there may be.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. One follow-up,

  • if I may. Now that I have had a short period with the

  • impact of reductions in the hardware prices on the part

  • of Sony and Microsoft, what is your take on the net benefits

  • to the business with respect to tirades and traffic and

  • what-not? One more question, if I may. Do you care

  • to quantify the diluted effects of Musicland the same way

  • you did Future Shop in Q1?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Mike, take the first

  • part relative to pricing on the video gaming hardware

  • and (inaudible) respond to the second.

  • The video games of today

  • are extensive features and solutions for customers. We

  • have seen not only just the international shopping consumer

  • demand, but continually increase consumer demand after the

  • price drops. What is driving, we see people buying more

  • software and accessories. This bows well for the upcoming

  • season. We are excited about it. It has injected life

  • into it. We have seen a lot of third-party software people

  • talking about it and bringing to market a new software

  • releases, which encourage people to buy more and more product.

  • As to the second question,

  • the way I would answer it is in my comments, I said we

  • expect a 4-cent diluted impact on Future Shop process to

  • profits launch in Canada,s well as investments to convert some

  • of the rural On Cue to Sam Goody and making remerchandising

  • adjustments in the second quarter collectively that is 4

  • cents. If you recall, I think Al quantified the Future

  • Shop impact as one and a half cents in this first quarter.

  • So, you are good with math. I think the difference between

  • the two is 2-and-a-half cents. I want to make sure I

  • characterize. That would be the investments to go with

  • it, including moving the lever mix to a fully assorted

  • DVD gaming offer.

  • Analyst

  • All right.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Next question,

  • please.

  • Moderator

  • Our next question from

  • Colin McGranahan of Sanford Bernstein.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning. Question

  • is inventory levels. The levels were overall just a little

  • bit higher than expected. It looks like sales exceeded

  • our expectations and exceeded your plan. Can you comment

  • on the quarter ending first quarter inventory levels and

  • how you feel about the inventory situation going forward

  • in the second quarter?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Absolutely.

  • That is a great question. So, average store inventories

  • grew a little over 10 percent in the first quarter. At

  • first glance, that might appear concerning. What you should

  • be aware of is right at the end of the first quarter, we

  • had done a system conversion to our new retech management

  • system. What we did in anticipation of that is to make

  • sure that we brought in some extra inventory in the event

  • and others have had challenges with ARP conversions in the

  • past. I am glad to report, as we sit here today, we don't

  • see those challenges. We put inventories in the store

  • in the event there were challenges.

  • So, we are comfortable that even though the inventory grows,

  • we will work through the inventory through the June-July

  • time period and be back on plan. Essentially, our trailing

  • turns are still at 7.4, which is where we wanted to be.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you. Secondly,

  • doing my math I think I came up with 2-and-a-half cents

  • that is 13 million from Musicland dilution in the second

  • quarter. Was that a similar amount in the first quarter

  • and overall for the year, you had said you would make a

  • $30 million investment in Musicland? Are you on

  • track there? If it was 2 and a half cents, that is 26

  • million so far first and second quarter, is the timing being

  • moved into the first half of the year?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • The math is not

  • not far off. We have not changed our expectations to

  • the overall 40 million dollars of incremental year over

  • year investment in the business.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Sufficed to say, in

  • the Musicland and Future Shop initiative, there does exist

  • a miss-balance in the seasonality of the profitability

  • generated through both chains not dissimilar from Best

  • Buy in our earlier days before we were able to land our

  • process to profits initiative. Clearly, we are working

  • side by side with both management teams to put the kind

  • of competency and processes in place to balance out what

  • happens throughout the course of the year. Obviously, reduce

  • the losses that occur more traditionally in the first part of

  • the year and in large, the profitability that occurs in

  • the back half of the year. That is the nature of the

  • business.

  • We have found ways to get at that meaningfully and we think

  • given a bit of time, and obviously understanding from the

  • leadership of both groups, that we are clearly going to

  • land solidly on our feet there, as well.

  • Analyst

  • Great. Thank you very

  • much.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Next question,

  • please.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. Our next

  • question comes from Susan Quilty from Morgan Stanley.

  • Analyst

  • If I could clarify the

  • last point. When you look at the full year guidance, you

  • are talking about 40 million in incremental investment on

  • Musicland. I know you said you expected the contribution

  • to be 40 million less this year. Is that all investment

  • (inaudible) at Musicland?

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • Yeah, the

  • short answer is it is the combination of the evolution of

  • the mix. When we quantified 40, we said we would lose

  • profitability as we intensify DVD and video game offer

  • in the Musicland business. We should be essentially cycled

  • on that at the end of the second quarter, maybe a little

  • bit as we go into the first half of the third quarter.

  • The second piece is going to include the investments that

  • are - we are going to make in remerchandising, continuing

  • to transform 250 Sam Goody mall locations and then the

  • On Cue locations, making the investments to convert those

  • from On Cue to Sam Goody rural locations.

  • Analyst

  • When you are giving 4 cent

  • dilution you talked about in the first and second quarter,

  • that is also including the mix-related shift in addition

  • to the remerchandising expenses and the actual start-up

  • expenses you talked about in Canada?

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • That is correct.

  • Analyst

  • If we look at the full

  • year and you are factoring in a total of 40 million dilutions

  • from Musicland, what would be the similar number for Future

  • Shop? From an investment perspective?

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • We have not

  • quantified that at this point. We have not shared that

  • publicly. As we get - move through the year in terms

  • of the Future Shop business, and finish scoping some of

  • the process to profit work, as well as the benefits that

  • go with it, we will finalize those estimates.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. Is it renal to

  • assume the recent trends would be not dramatically out of

  • line with those kinds of numbers going forward?

  • Darren Jackson - Executive VP and CFO

  • That is correct.

  • Analyst

  • Okay. One last question,

  • if I have time. In the digital T.V. category, you talked

  • about it being a third of overall T.V. revenue and price

  • points being important. Can you give us a sense of where

  • the average retails are in the category and where they will

  • be at Christmas this year and then what you think the entry

  • level price could be at Christmas this year? That is

  • it for me.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Michael, can you give that end?

  • On the digital T.V. and

  • it may be hard to quantify the average price. We have

  • seen digital move down into smaller screen sizes and flat

  • T.V.s move into smaller sizes. We see changes in prices

  • and projection T.V.s. It is in the neighborhood of 10

  • to 15 percent if you compare year over year. We do see

  • many more offerings with many more features. We have a

  • phenomena of people walking into the store and looking at

  • the picture availability. They are excited about home

  • theater being in homes. We see an increase in average

  • selling price in the television area.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Any sense,

  • Mike, for the holiday season?

  • I think the holiday season

  • will be relatively stable. The new models are coming out

  • now. We are seeing price drops for new models coming out.

  • We think prices will stay about the same as where they

  • are now and where we are entering new products.

  • Analyst

  • Is average retail for digital

  • T.V.s are above $2000 or below that?

  • Below that, now.

  • Analyst

  • As much as screen-sized?

  • Screen size plays a lot

  • of it. They are up to $1700. The $2000 barrier

  • has been broken with a number of offerings from

  • multiple vendors.

  • Analyst

  • Thanks.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. Our next

  • question is from Mark Rowan of Prudential Securities.

  • Analyst

  • Thanks and good morning.

  • Couple of questions. First, on performance service plans,

  • Darren, what percentage of revenues came from PSPs in this

  • quarter? Do you expect any change from a mixed shift or

  • anything that you are doing in-store as far as initiatives

  • going forward for the rest of the year? Second, on

  • expansion, if you could update us on your thinking on that,

  • how many stores as far as Future Shop? How many stores

  • Best Buy do you think you can grow to in Canada? You

  • are thinking on Europe, what would you be thinking being

  • doing there? Thank you.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • We don't

  • give out those numbers. What I can tell anecdotally,

  • when products like digital cameras and digital televisions

  • have the growth rates we have been experiencing and given

  • the complex nature of those benefits products, there is

  • benefits in the PSP arena we are seeing in the numbers today.

  • So, the growth in the digital products certainly

  • is benefiting the PSP business.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • It is also

  • effective add-on to include the fact that we have developed

  • the process and sharpened the focus so effectively in our

  • retail sop platforms that literally, new stores come onboard,

  • the new styles assembled to launch these stores, literally

  • get up to speed on the point of time in which we open.

  • So, the ratio relationship of our sale on many of these

  • accessory service warrants, extended service or connection-

  • type opportunities literally hit the ground at about the same

  • rate that of an up-and-running store. It is in the culture

  • and into our process. We, of course, draw immediate gain

  • and benefit from its impact.

  • As far as the international activity or Canadian activity.

  • The overall target for Best Buy over time is to open

  • somewhere between 65 and 75 Best Buy stores across the

  • country. At the same time, we would expect Future Shop

  • to grow probably another 15 to 20 stores in total. Some

  • of that will actually be the expansion of smaller stores

  • into a larger footprint. Others will be just newly introduced

  • stores in markets where they have not gained fully the kind

  • of saturation that is necessary. So, it probably is going

  • to lead us somewhere around 120 stores in Canada and 65

  • to 75 Best Buy stores in Canada.

  • With respect to the international marketplace beyond the

  • Canadian opportunity, we have really just begun to look

  • seriously at each of a wide variety of new market

  • opportunities. We are drawing down

  • information about the European marketplace.

  • We are exploring the same kind of information relative

  • to competition market potential in Asia, as well as South

  • America. This is the process we are just underway with.

  • We need to learn more about the consumer attitudes and

  • behaviors market by market, versus what we have known and

  • become accustomed to in North America.

  • We have made an initiative to appoint a special director,

  • who has joined our board, and actually lives in Europe

  • and knows a considerable amount about the business, the retail

  • business in general, not just consumer electronics, a wide

  • variety of countries. He is engaging in the development

  • of a lot of facts and information to help us and guide our

  • thinking about what this market opportunity may or may not

  • be. Our sense is we have so much work ahead of us here

  • in North America, not only the ability to land the Best

  • Buy strategy in Canada, as Allen pointed out, but to

  • continue to refine and enhance the Future Shop initiative

  • to get the operating margins more closely aligned to what goes

  • on at Best Buy. We have this entire magnolia strategy, which

  • is only appearing in some increased form in San Francisco

  • and ultimately we expect California. Allen mentioned

  • the new 20,000 foot prototype we are going to be launching

  • later this year for the expressed purpose to try to determine

  • how many additional smaller communities might we bring all

  • four of our offerings. We still have several hundred

  • Best Buy stores to be launched throughout the United

  • States.

  • So, we have a full plate right now of new stores to open,

  • new business to create and so, we are taking it a step at

  • a time. Our commitment to our employees, as well as to

  • our shareholders was to maximize the returns on the capital

  • we have deployed and the investments we have made. That

  • is what we have learned to do reasonably well and our intent

  • is to stay after that barometer in a meaningful way.

  • Analyst

  • Thanks. One other question,

  • if I could on the music business. It has been a tough

  • business for everybody and everyone has just kind of throwing

  • up their hands and saying it is digital downloading and

  • there is not a lot of good acts. What is your thinking

  • going forward on that? Do you have contingency plans

  • if the business does not pick up in the next 12 months,

  • would you devote more floor space to you? Are you already

  • doing that?

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • We are going the other way.

  • This is a wonderful business. It is theater for our

  • strategy. I would like to maybe ask Kevin Freeland to take

  • a couple of minutes to tell you about the way Musicland has

  • worked through for improved traction in the mall operation.

  • I can tell you we are taking a tremendous amount of direction

  • from their lead in determining the importance of getting

  • our departments in our stores right. Even though there is

  • erosion in the business from certainly a couple of different

  • areas of opportunity, there is plenty of business to be

  • done at retail. We fully intend to capture an increasing

  • amount. Kevin, add color to what we are doing.

  • The combined companies

  • have been working over the last several months looking at

  • the music business, what we sell traditionally within our

  • stores, the businesses we are doing on-line, both physical

  • product and the paid down mode business on-line, as well

  • as looking at the broader music business, including other

  • channels of profitability, like live venues, concert venues,

  • and the like.

  • At this stage, the combined teams, the retail division

  • teams, see an opportunity that when there is a significant

  • change in the business, like what is going on in the music

  • business today, that puts an opportunity out for a growth

  • in our position. So, we, as a team, are committed to that

  • business. It reminds us quite a bit of where we were in

  • PCs a number of years back and by staying committed to

  • a business that at times look troubled. Best Buy emerged

  • as dominant leader in retail. So, we are at this point,

  • looking at what strengths we have, what new competencies we

  • need to build and we intend to hold our lead market share

  • position. We intend to grow it.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. Our next

  • question is coming from Dana Telsey of Bear Stearns.

  • Analyst

  • Good morning and congratulations.

  • Can you comment more on the private label computer area?

  • How big do you expect it to be? How many skews have

  • you added? Are there other categories where you would

  • add private label to? Comment on the appliance categories.

  • I was in the New York store this weekend, it was packed

  • and the sales were terrific.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Let me ask Mike London,

  • who rides over the top of merchandising efforts to give

  • you initial thoughts around the VPR matrix and appliance

  • business.

  • As far as VPR matrix goes,

  • it is a limited selection of SKUs. We use it to fill in

  • some spots where we think it is appropriate and we can offer

  • value. I think we have always said we expect it to compliment

  • branded name products and provides appropriate niches

  • we can fill. We are learning the process as we go along

  • and trying to understand it, it is complicated. We are

  • building competency around developing an understanding of

  • how you bring a product like this to market. We are excited

  • about our back to school offer. I think we have just been

  • in the business a short period of time. I think the VPR

  • matrix brand, as you see today, is limited to the PC area.

  • As far as the appliance business goes, we talk body our

  • results. I would tell you, we are working extremely hard

  • to satisfy our customers in the in-store experience and

  • converting customers as quickly as possible and making the

  • appropriate invests to do that.

  • Coming back from the kitchen and bath show last April,

  • having business in the business a number of years, there

  • is probably more new product at that show, than the last

  • 10 shows together. We are excited about the future of

  • appliances as they become so-called smart. We think this

  • is a great opportunity for Best Buy and an area where

  • customers will look for us to be in a leadership position.

  • Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Richard Schulze - Founder Chairman and CEO

  • Thank you. I think

  • we are running out of time here. With that, I would

  • like to thank each and every of you who has so faithfully

  • participated in our quarterly conference calls and attended

  • the various conferences that we participate in around the

  • country. I would like to leave you with some thoughts.

  • I honestly, truly and genuinely believe we are at the

  • top of our game in a wide variety of key areas.

  • Our commitment to our shareholders, as

  • well as our employees, is that we are going

  • to continue to leverage many of the core competencies we

  • have developed as a company over the last several decades,

  • not the least of which is the yield in our process to profits

  • initiatives. Of course, our standard operating process of

  • procedure that is take place at retail stores. We turn these

  • structural capital and we think one of the key differentiating

  • benefits we have really is our ability to create best in

  • class processes.

  • This is obviously what we are attempting to land solidly

  • in the new acquisitions we have made over the last year.

  • We are also really strategically more strongly linked

  • with our key suppliers in building partnerships of strategic

  • importance going forward. You are going to see and hear

  • about new exciting initiatives as the year rolls along, with

  • many suppliers who are helping us get to market quickly at the

  • right price and with the right offer. We are continuing

  • to invest in new development. A special team

  • of people are essentially dedicated to creating new solutions

  • that can be packaged and sold on the floor of our stores

  • with continuing improvement and profitability. Our strategic

  • planning teams solidly focus on providing for us stimulating

  • new ideas on how to think about our business over the next

  • five years and up to 10 years.

  • So, we are all about market share. We are about building

  • customer preference. We are about improving execution.

  • And, as I hand the mantel of responsibility as the C.E.O.

  • over to Brad, I have never been more confident in the

  • wonderful talents that a team has been assembled and the

  • passion that each and every member of this team has for

  • building us to another level of standard performance. Thanks

  • again for all of your support and all of your commitment

  • to what we are trying to do here. We feel good about it.

  • I am confident over time that you will also continue to

  • share in that same confidence.

  • Thank you very much.

  • Jennifer Driscoll - VP Investor Relations

  • Thank you for participating

  • in this morning's call. Again, this call will be available

  • for replay by dialing 973-341-3080 and entering the pin

  • of 3328297. You also can hear replace www.bestbuy.com by

  • clicking on investor relations and presentations. If you

  • have additional questions please call me, Jennifer Driscoll

  • at 952-947-2350. That concludes our call.

  • Moderator

  • Thank you. That concludes

  • today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at

  • this time and have a great day.