BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD (BAM) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

This is the conference operator.

這是會議操作員。

Welcome to the Brookfield Asset Management 2017 Year-end Conference Call and Webcast.

歡迎參加布魯克菲爾德資產管理公司 2017 年年終電話會議和網絡廣播。

(Operator Instructions) And the conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference call over to Suzanne Fleming, Managing Partner, Branding and Communications.

（操作員說明）我現在想將電話會議轉給品牌與傳播部管理合夥人蘇珊·弗萊明 (Suzanne Fleming)。

Please go ahead, Ms. Fleming.

請繼續，弗萊明女士。

Thank you, operator, and good morning.

謝謝您，接線員，早上好。

Welcome to Brookfield's 2017 Year-end Conference Call.

歡迎參加 Brookfield 2017 年年終電話會議。

On the call today are Bruce Flatt, our Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Lawson, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天參加電話會議的是我們的首席執行官 Bruce Flatt；以及我們的首席財務官布萊恩·勞森 (Brian Lawson)。

Brian will start off by discussing the highlights of our financial and operating results for the quarter and the year, and Bruce will then give a business update.

布萊恩將首先討論我們本季度和全年的財務和運營業績的亮點，然後布魯斯將介紹業務最新情況。

After our formal comments, we'll turn the call over to the operator and take your questions.

在我們提出正式意見後，我們會將電話轉給接線員並回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I'd like to remind you that in responding to questions and in talking about new initiatives in our financial and operating performance, we may make forward-looking statements, including forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities law.

我想提醒您，在回答問題以及談論我們的財務和運營業績的新舉措時，我們可能會做出前瞻性聲明，包括適用的加拿大和美國證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。

These statements reflect predictions of future events and trends and do not relate to historic events.

這些陳述反映了對未來事件和趨勢的預測，與歷史事件無關。

They are subject to known and unknown risks, and future events may differ materially from such statements.

它們面臨已知和未知的風險，未來事件可能與此類聲明存在重大差異。

For further information on these risks and other potential impacts on our company, please see our filings with the securities regulators in Canada and the U.S. and the information available on our website.

有關這些風險和對我們公司的其他潛在影響的更多信息，請參閱我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件以及我們網站上提供的信息。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And I'll now turn the call over to Brian.

我現在將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thank you, Suzanne, and good morning to all of you on the call.

謝謝你，蘇珊娜，祝所有參加電話會議的人早上好。

Let me start off by saying that we are pleased with the results for 2017.

首先我要說的是，我們對 2017 年的結果感到滿意。

In particular, it highlights a successful year of growth for our asset management franchise and a further step-change increase in our earnings base.

特別是，它凸顯了我們資產管理業務的成功增長一年以及我們盈利基礎的進一步大幅增長。

Bruce will expand on this in his remarks, but in summary, we continue to expand our fee-bearing capital, generate carried interest and deploy capital across multiple asset classes and geographies.

布魯斯將在他的講話中詳細闡述這一點，但總而言之，我們將繼續擴大我們的收費資本，產生附帶權益，並在多個資產類別和地區部署資本。

Funds from operations, or FFO, totaled $3.8 billion for the year, that's a record for us.

今年運營資金（FFO）總計 38 億美元，這是我們的記錄。

This represents $3.74 per share and an 18% increase over last year.

這意味著每股 3.74 美元，比去年增長 18%。

Net income was $4.6 billion for the year or $1.34 per share attributable to shareholders.

當年股東淨利潤為 46 億美元，即每股 1.34 美元。

Both FFO and net income benefited from the significant increase in fee-related earnings as well as growth in our existing businesses and contributions from new investments, and they also benefited from an increase in the level of realized disposition gains and fair value gains, respectively.

FFO和淨利潤均受益於與費用相關的收益的大幅增長以及我們現有業務的增長和新投資的貢獻，並且還分別受益於已實現處置收益和公允價值收益水平的增加。

I will now cover some of the highlights within FFO.

現在我將介紹 FFO 中的一些亮點。

First, focusing on our asset management results.

一是注重資產管理成果。

Fee-related earnings increased by 26% to $896 million and that's due to growth in fee-bearing capital, which now stands at $126 billion.

與費用相關的收入增長了 26%，達到 8.96 億美元，這是由於費用資本的增長所致，目前費用資本已達到 1,260 億美元。

This growth is driven by both capital committed to new private funds and growth in the capitalization of our listed issuers.

這一增長是由新私募基金投入的資本和上市發行人資本的增長推動的。

We also earned our first performance fees from BBU as a result of a significant growth in its unit price following several notable acquisitions.

我們還從 BBU 獲得了第一筆績效費，因為在幾次重大收購之後，其單價顯著增長。

Moving over to carried interest, which is becoming increasingly relevant to our financial results.

轉向附帶權益，它與我們的財務業績越來越相關。

As our earlier vintage funds mature, they are starting to generate meaningful levels of unrealized carried interest.

隨著我們早期的老式基金的成熟，它們開始產生有意義的未實現附帶利息水平。

As we've noted it in the past, carry doesn't typically arise in a fund until the capital has been invested and we begin creating value, so there is a natural lag.

正如我們過去所指出的，在資本投入並且我們開始創造價值之前，基金中通常不會出現利差，因此存在自然的滯後。

In 2017, we generated $1.3 billion of unrealized carried interest or $928 million net of costs.

2017 年，我們產生了 13 億美元的未實現附帶權益，即扣除成本後的 9.28 億美元。

Total accrued carried interest is now over $2 billion, more than double that of the prior year.

應計附帶利息總額現已超過 20 億美元，是上一年的兩倍多。

And while nothing is guaranteed, this provides a good indication of how we are tracking against the carried interest targets that we expect to realize over the coming years and puts us ahead of plan.

雖然沒有任何保證，但這很好地表明了我們如何跟踪我們預計在未來幾年實現的附帶權益目標，並使我們領先於計劃。

The growth in fee-bearing capital led to a 22% growth -- increase in annualized fees and target carried over last year, which now stand together at $2.5 billion.

收費資本的增長導致了 22% 的增長——年化費用和去年結轉目標的增加，目前總計達 25 億美元。

Within that, annualized fees stand at $1.5 billion and that adds significantly to our current earning potential of the asset management franchise, while the annualized target carried interest increased to $1 billion, representing significant future earning potential.

其中，年化費用為 15 億美元，這大大增加了我們目前資產管理特許經營業務的盈利潛力，而年化目標附帶利息增加至 10 億美元，代表著巨大的未來盈利潛力。

Turning to the invested capital side.

轉向投入資金方面。

FFO increased to $1.5 billion, which reflects improved results across our businesses.

FFO 增加至 15 億美元，這反映了我們整個業務業績的改善。

We benefited from strong pricing and volumes, including higher generation within our renewable power operations, increases in tariffs across our transportation businesses and higher pricing in some of our industrial businesses.

我們受益於強勁的定價和銷量，包括可再生能源業務中發電量的增加、運輸業務關稅的增加以及一些工業業務定價的提高。

We benefited from the contribution from completed development projects, which provide us with opportunities to put capital to work within our existing businesses.

我們受益於已完成的開發項目的貢獻，這為我們提供了將資本投入現有業務的機會。

And we also deployed capital into a number of significant acquisitions, including $3 billion within our private equity operations and the acquisition of a $5 billion Brazilian regulated transmission business, which enabled a step change in that business as well.

我們還將資金投入到一系列重大收購中，包括 30 億美元的私募股權業務以及收購 50 億美元的巴西監管輸電業務，這也使該業務發生了重大變化。

The strong growth in FFO per unit in Brookfield Infrastructure Partners, Renewable Energy Partners and Property Partners supported distribution increases in each of those businesses within their 5% to 9% target ranges.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners、Renewable Energy Partners 和 Property Partners 的單位 FFO 強勁增長，支持這些業務的分銷增長在 5% 至 9% 的目標範圍內。

Disposition gains in FFO contributed $1.3 billion, as we completed several significant sales in 2017, including the sale of our European logistics company and several core office buildings.

FFO 的處置收益貢獻了 13 億美元，因為我們在 2017 年完成了幾項重大銷售，包括出售我們的歐洲物流公司和幾座核心辦公樓。

Before I turn it over to Bruce, I wanted to provide a brief update on fundraising.

在我把它交給布魯斯之前，我想提供一個關於籌款的簡短更新。

As you're aware, we are through 80% invested or committed on both of our flagship real estate and private equity funds.

如您所知，我們 80% 的投資或承諾投資於我們的旗艦房地產和私募股權基金。

And so we are currently fundraising in these sectors.

因此，我們目前正在這些領域籌集資金。

Our infrastructure fund is 50% deployed, which is right on track given its vintage.

我們的基礎設施基金已部署 50%，考慮到其歷史，這正處於正軌。

And in 2017, while we didn't hold final closes for any of our larger flagship funds, we made very good progress in building out our other strategies such as our credit business.

2017 年，雖然我們沒有對任何較大的旗艦基金進行最終交割，但我們在製定信貸業務等其他戰略方面取得了很好的進展。

We raised our first infrastructure credit fund, which exceeded the target size, and held a first close on an open-ended real estate credit fund.

我們籌集了第一筆基礎設施信貸基金，超出了目標規模，並首次完成了開放式房地產信貸基金的募集。

With interest rates still expected to be very low compared to the returns we can generate, we continue to see demand into the foreseeable future for products which are alternatives to fixed income investments.

由於與我們能夠產生的回報相比，利率預計仍然非常低，因此我們繼續看到在可預見的未來對固定收益投資替代產品的需求。

We are pleased with our initial progress in the high net worth space where we are raising over -- where we've raised over $400 million since the beginning of 2017 through multiple channels, including private banks and registered investment advisers.

我們對我們正在籌集的高淨值領域取得的初步進展感到高興——自 2017 年初以來，我們已通過包括私人銀行和註冊投資顧問在內的多種渠道籌集了超過 4 億美元。

Going forward, we plan to offer more of our products to clients in this channel and expect it to be a good area of growth for us.

展望未來，我們計劃通過這個渠道向客戶提供更多產品，並期望這對我們來說是一個良好的增長領域。

Finally, I'm pleased to confirm that our Board of Directors has declared a $0.15 quarterly dividend payable at the end of February, and this represents a 7% increase over the prior year.

最後，我很高興地確認，我們的董事會已宣佈在 2 月底支付 0.15 美元的季度股息，這比上一年增加了 7%。

And with that, I will hand the call over to Bruce.

這樣，我會將電話轉交給布魯斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you all for joining the call.

感謝大家加入通話。

As Brian mentioned, asset management -- assets under management continue to grow, and our investments performed well last year.

正如布萊恩提到的，資產管理——管理的資產持續增長，去年我們的投資表現良好。

We continue to find opportunities to invest the capital that we've been raising despite a competitive environment, and we put that down to 3 of our core advantages, which are size our global presence and our operating platforms.

儘管競爭環境激烈，但我們仍在繼續尋找投資我們籌集的資金的機會，我們將其歸結為我們的三大核心優勢，即我們的全球業務規模和我們的運營平台。

These advantages allow us not only to identify a wide range of investment opportunities globally, but also to acquire assets for value, and then use our operating businesses to create upside.

這些優勢使我們不僅能夠在全球範圍內發現廣泛的投資機會，還能以價值方式收購資產，然後利用我們的運營業務創造上升空間。

With strong markets, as Brian mentioned, we sold a number of assets more than usual and we'll continue to do so into 2018.

正如 Brian 提到的，隨著市場強勁，我們比平常更多地出售了一些資產，並且我們將在 2018 年繼續這樣做。

Our strategy has been twofold.

我們的戰略是雙重的。

First, to sell mature, stabilized assets and redeploy the proceeds into higher-yielding assets.

首先，出售成熟、穩定的資產，並將收益重新配置為收益更高的資產。

Or secondly, into -- returning capital to investors, particularly when this allows us to substantially compete -- complete a defined investment strategy.

其次，將資本返還給投資者，特別是當這使我們能夠進行實質性競爭時，完成既定的投資策略。

Fundraising for real assets in both the public and the private markets for the assets that we manage remained strong, with institutional funds continuing to allocate greater amounts of capital to these sectors.

我們管理的資產在公共和私人市場上的實物資產融資依然強勁，機構基金繼續向這些行業配置更多資金。

With interest rates expected to remain in a low range compared to the returns that we can generate, I'll return to that in a second, this should -- this growth should continue for the foreseeable future.

與我們能夠產生的回報相比，利率預計將保持在較低的範圍內，我稍後會回到這一點，在可預見的未來，這種增長應該會持續下去。

Turning to the general markets.

轉向一般市場。

We see no signs of underlying economic issues despite the U.S. economy being 9 years into an expansion.

儘管美國經濟已經擴張九年，但我們沒有看到任何潛在經濟問題的跡象。

While this economic cycle shows no signs of ending, it is clearly in the mid-to-later stages of a elongated expansion, so we are being cautious.

雖然這個經濟周期沒有結束的跡象，但顯然處於長期擴張的中後期階段，因此我們持謹慎態度。

To that end, we continue to focus on our liquidity and our funding profile to ensure we're in excellent financial shape and position to react to substantial growth opportunities in the next down-market, as we have done in past.

為此，我們繼續關注我們的流動性和融資狀況，以確保我們處於良好的財務狀況和地位，能夠像我們過去所做的那樣，對下一個低端市場的巨大增長機會做出反應。

Outside the U.S., economies are continuing to recover, and in general, offer more value than available in the United States.

美國以外的經濟體正在持續復甦，總體而言，其提供的價值高於美國國內的價值。

Looking at a few of those markets, in the U.K., Brexit stress is offering select opportunities.

看看其中的一些市場，在英國，英國脫歐壓力正在提供精選的機會。

Broader Europe is looking slightly stronger than it has been for a long time.

整個歐洲看起來比長期以來稍強一些。

Brazil is recovering, remarkably interest rates have dropped from over 13% to 6.75% now on the short-term rate.

巴西正在復蘇，短期利率顯著從 13% 以上降至目前的 6.75%。

Australia has been very resilient.

澳大利亞一直非常有彈性。

China continues on its path to becoming the largest economy in the world.

中國繼續走在成為世界最大經濟體的道路上。

And in India, where we've done a number of transactions, they're dealing with an overleveraged corporate sector and that's presenting opportunities.

在印度，我們進行了大量交易，他們正在處理槓桿率過高的企業部門，這提供了機會。

Across the developed markets, the main place where this cycle's excess liquidity has been -- had been and has been building up, we've been monetizing mature assets at values that align with our investment strategies or where we can put it to work more productively.

在發達市場中，這個週期流動性過剩的主要地方已經並且一直在積累，我們一直在以符合我們的投資策略或我們可以更有效地發揮作用的價值將成熟資產貨幣化。

This has also enabled us to add liquidity to the balance sheets and invest more capital in the emerging markets and out-of-favor businesses where multiples have not seen the same expansion.

這也使我們能夠增加資產負債表的流動性，並將更多資本投資於新興市場和市盈率未出現同樣擴張的不受青睞的企業。

We currently have over $25 billion of core liquidity and dry powder in our private funds.

目前，我們的私募基金擁有超過 250 億美元的核心流動性和乾粉。

And in this environment, we believe that real assets do continue to offer excellent long-term value.

在這種環境下，我們相信實物資產確實會繼續提供卓越的長期價值。

I'd also point out that most competitive capital targeted at this sector did not have the breadth or the advantages of size, global reach and operating capabilities that we have.

我還想指出，針對該行業的最具競爭力的資本並不具備我們所擁有的廣度或規模優勢、全球影響力和運營能力。

Over the past year, for example, these specific points enabled us to complete purchases even in the United States where values were higher.

例如，在過去的一年中，這些具體點使我們即使在價值更高的美國也能完成購買。

We bought 2 SunEdison subsidiaries out of bankruptcy.

我們收購了兩家破產的 SunEdison 子公司。

As well, we recently announced an agreement to acquire Westinghouse Electric Company out of a bankruptcy.

此外，我們最近還宣布達成協議，收購破產的西屋電氣公司。

We also added a number of quality businesses from sellers in need of capital in Brazil and India, which totaled around $10 billion.

我們還增加了巴西和印度需要資金的賣家的一些優質業務，總計約100億美元。

Lastly, I wanted to make a few comments on the business -- our business of managing real assets for private investors across real estate, infrastructure, renewable power and other related businesses.

最後，我想對我們的業務發表一些評論——我們為私人投資者管理房地產、基礎設施、可再生能源和其他相關業務的實物資產。

This business continues to mature and is now firmly established as a component of investment portfolios of most pension and sovereign plans.

該業務不斷成熟，現已成為大多數養老金和主權計劃投資組合的組成部分。

With these plans expected to double upward -- to upwards of $80 trillion and with the allocation of real assets and alternatives to also expected to double, there could be a further $20 trillion of capital available over the next 10 years for investment into the type of assets that we invest in.

由於這些計劃預計將翻倍——達到80 萬億美元以上，並且實物資產和替代品的配置預計也將翻倍，因此未來10 年可能還會有20 萬億美元的資本可用於投資此類投資。我們投資的資產。

This will continue to fuel significant growth in the industry.

這將繼續推動該行業的顯著增長。

We believe this is a long-term trend and it is important to reflect on absolute returns when looking at our investments.

我們相信這是一個長期趨勢，在考慮我們的投資時考慮絕對回報非常重要。

In the context of low interest rates and highly correlated equity returns as well as growing liabilities and longevity risk, our investors are seeking alternatives to generate sufficient returns, diversify their portfolios and reduce volatility.

在低利率和高度相關的股票回報以及不斷增長的負債和長壽風險的背景下，我們的投資者正在尋找替代方案來產生足夠的回報，實現投資組合多元化並減少波動性。

Our products address these needs.

我們的產品滿足這些需求。

And to make that point, on our more opportunistic strategies, we generally earn 20% plus or minus and our lower strategies earn in the range of 7%.

為了說明這一點，在我們的機會主義策略中，我們通常會賺取 20% 上下的收益，而我們較低的策略的收益則在 7% 左右。

Today, these returns compare very favorably to a 10-year treasury in the U.S. even at its increased rate of 2.9%, Europe at 0.7% and Japan at essentially 0.

如今，這些回報率與美國 10 年期國債相比非常有利，即使其增長率為 2.9%，歐洲為 0.7%，日本則基本為 0。

In our opinion, the only thing that can stop this trend of continued funding going towards these type of products is the significant increase in global inflation that pushes the long-term interest rates into a territory in which -- and this is the important point, in which returns are not sufficiently superior to the yields that we can earn.

我們認為，唯一能夠阻止這種持續向此類產品提供資金的趨勢的是全球通脹​​的顯著上升，這將長期利率推向一個新的領域——這是重要的一點，其中回報並不足以高於我們可以獲得的收益。

Despite interest rates increasing from unduly low levels they were at, something we have expected for a very long time, we do not expect that this will affect our business and believe that it will be a long time before a high-rate paradigm returns.

儘管利率從過低的水平開始上升，這是我們長期以來的預期，但我們預計這不會影響我們的業務，並相信高利率模式回歸還需要很長時間。

So with that, operator, that completes my remarks.

接線員，我的發言到此結束。

I will turn it over to you, and Brian or I will take any questions, if there are any.

我會把它交給你，如果有任何問題，布萊恩或我會回答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自道明證券的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Wanted to start by asking about the private fund client base, which is up nicely to 500 clients.

我想首先詢問私募基金客戶群的情況，目前客戶數量已接近 500 名。

Can you talk about how the high net worth channel gets counted within that number?

您能談談高淨值渠道是如何計入該數字的嗎？

And give us some color on how your private fund capital has continued to evolve by size and type of client, and also the distribution by geography?

請告訴我們您的私募基金資本如何根據客戶規模和類型以及地理分佈持續發展？

Sure.

當然。

So I'll start off on the private clients.

所以我將從私人客戶開始。

This is Brian, Cherilyn, and thanks for that.

我是布賴恩（Brian）、謝林（Cherilyn），謝謝你。

So much of that happens in through what I would call an aggregated basis.

其中大部分發生在我所說的聚合基礎上。

So we would not include if there is, I'll say, 1 channel that we go through that represents 50 high net worth clients, we would just count that as 1. So that does -- so that's how that plays it.

因此，如果我們通過的 1 個渠道代表 50 個高淨值客戶，我們不會將其計算在內，我們只會將其算作 1。所以確實如此，這就是它的運作方式。

The -- but -- so of the increase in the number of clients, which I think there were about 40 new clients that we introduced across the funds over the past year, which was in a wide variety of geographies that's very well diversified, the -- there was a very -- only -- a very minimal amount of that was actually, from a numbers perspective, private clients.

但是，客戶數量的增加，我認為去年我們在基金中引入了大約 40 個新客戶，這些客戶分佈在非常多元化的各個地區， - 從數字的角度來看，其中實際上只有非常少量的私人客戶。

And so just in terms of some of the areas that you've been focused on, can you just comment on progress relative to small and midsized institutions in the U.S. and then also Europe where you've been a little bit underrepresented, arguably?

因此，就您一直關注的一些領域而言，您能否評論一下美國以及歐洲中小型機構的進展，在歐洲，您的代表性可能有點不足？

So...

所以...

Yes, Cherilyn, I might just comment that I would say across the board, our brand keeps getting better known, and we keep growing in all areas.

是的，Cherilyn，我可能只是評論說，我想說的是，我們的品牌一直在變得越來越出名，我們在各個領域都在不斷發展。

So I'd say we're pushing -- we're adding more U.S. small clients, we're adding a number of European clients to our list when we continue to add clients, but really, across-the-board in all jurisdictions.

所以我想說，我們正在推動——我們正在增加更多的美國小客戶，當我們繼續增加客戶時，我們正在將一些歐洲客戶添加到我們的名單中，但實際上，在所有司法管轄區都是全面的。

Great.

偉大的。

My second question relates to something you've referred to in the letter, which is the idea that as a value investor, you have to be increasingly aware of the potential impact of technological change.

我的第二個問題與您在信中提到的內容有關，即作為價值投資者，您必須越來越意識到技術變革的潛在影響。

So I wonder if you could just talk about how you've adapted your underwriting process or your regular business reviews to incorporate considerations of that type of risk?

所以我想知道您是否可以談談您如何調整承保流程或定期業務審查以納入對此類風險的考慮？

Look, I would say there's nothing that scientific about it other than we're extremely aware in some businesses.

聽著，我想說的是，除了我們在某些企業中非常了解之外，這沒有什麼科學性。

In fact, in all businesses, technology is affecting them, some more than others.

事實上，在所有企業中，技術都在影響著他們，有些企業的影響比其他企業更大。

And the businesses where it is getting -- where there is direct effects, we need to understand that and try to better incorporate it into our underwritings.

對於那些受到直接影響的企業，我們需要了解這一點，並嘗試更好地將其納入我們的承保中。

So although I would -- what I would say is our -- generally, it's more technological change.

因此，儘管我會——我想說的是我們的——總的來說，這更多的是技術變革。

Usually, people overestimate what it's going to do to most businesses.

通常，人們高估了它對大多數企業的影響。

And very seldom is it is -- is it's dramatic or as quick as what most people expect.

但很少有這樣的情況——它是戲劇性的，還是像大多數人期望的那樣快。

So often getting -- people getting overexuberant about it means that there is opportunities for us to invest in the interim stages where people are just wrong on predicting the time or the impact on businesses.

人們常常對此過於興奮，這意味著我們有機會在過渡階段進行投資，在這些過渡階段，人們對時間或對企業的影響的預測是錯誤的。

So that's probably the biggest focus for us, is more from a value perspective versus looking at it from where we can grow businesses from scratch, which most growth investors would be focused on.

因此，這可能是我們最大的關注點，更多地是從價值的角度來看，而不是從我們可以從頭開始發展業務的角度來看，這是大多數成長型投資者所關注的。

Your next question comes from Yian Dai with KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Yiian Dai。

So first one's on tax reform.

首先是稅收改革。

I guess, I'm -- I was just wondering if you guys could talk about the impact of tax reform on some of your underlying businesses and investments.

我想，我只是想知道你們是否可以談談稅收改革對你們的一些基礎業務和投資的影響。

Just given the size of the investments you have in the U.S. and the nature of real asset investing, so maybe -- what are some areas where you might see investments start to look fundamentally less attractive due to limitations on deductibility?

考慮到您在美國的投資規模以及實物資產投資的性質，那麼，由於扣除額的限制，您可能會看到哪些領域的投資從根本上開始變得不那麼有吸引力？

And then conversely, are there areas where changes to roles around capital investment and deductibility around that might make other opportunities look more attractive in the near term?

相反，是否有一些領域的資本投資和扣除方面的角色變化可能會使其他機會在短期內看起來更具吸引力？

Sure.

當然。

It's -- thanks, Yian.

是——謝謝，Yian。

It's Brian.

是布萊恩。

So in general, our take of this is that it is overall positive for us, and some of that's going to play out over time.

所以總的來說，我們的看法是，這對我們來說總體是積極的，其中一些將隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。

The -- you mentioned a couple of things in there, and yes, there will absolutely be some benefits from accelerated write-off or deductibility of capital expenditures in a number of our businesses that will be helpful.

您在那裡提到了幾件事，是的，加速沖銷或扣除我們許多業務中的資本支出絕對會帶來一些好處，這將是有幫助的。

The interest expense is probably overall not a big issue for us, in part, because we run an investment-grade model fundamentally and so we keep our leverage in the interest -- according to the interest cost is on the lower side in that regard.

總體而言，利息支出對我們來說可能不是一個大問題，部分原因是我們從根本上運行的是投資級模型，因此我們將槓桿率保持在利息上——因為利息成本在這方面處於較低水平。

On -- also, I would observe that several of the industries that we operate in are exempt from a number of these changes, whether it's utilities or it's in real estate.

此外，我還觀察到，我們經營的幾個行業都不受這些變化的影響，無論是公用事業還是房地產行業。

So those would be some of the -- of ongoing impact.

因此，這些將是一些持續影響的因素。

And then, of course, having the tax rate go from 35% down to 21% is obviously a benefit.

當然，稅率從 35% 降至 21% 顯然是一個好處。

So overall, I'd say it's generally positive for us.

總的來說，我想說這對我們來說總體上是積極的。

And then, of course, a lot of that is just what is -- how does that kick into the economic environment overall, which if it has a positive impact, then that's good for us.

當然，其中很多就是這樣的——這如何影響整體經濟環境，如果它產生積極影響，那麼這對我們有好處。

Bruce, I also wanted to address something from the shareholder letter.

布魯斯，我還想談談股東信中的一些內容。

So there's a line in there talking about you guys thinking about the next phase of Brookfield post 2025.

裡面有一句話是在談論你們對 2025 年之後布魯克菲爾德下一階段的思考。

So I understand that's a long time away and may be not a conversation for today.

所以我知道那是很久以前的事了，今天可能不是討論的話題。

But I guess, I'm just kind of curious what some of those gross considerations are?

但我想，我只是好奇其中一些粗略的考慮是什麼？

And at that point, what might some of the concerns be that you'd want to talk through?

到那時，您可能想討論哪些問題？

And then what's the motivation for taking those discussions off today?

那麼今天停止這些討論的動機是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

I would say the line in the letter is really -- it was meant to indicate 2 things to shareholders.

我想說，這封信中的這句話實際上是為了向股東表明兩件事。

The first one is the next 7, 8 years by virtue of the business we have and the maturing of the business we have and the continued growth we think that can happen just with the business we have.

第一個是未來 7、8 年，憑藉我們擁有的業務以及我們擁有的業務的成熟以及我們認為這可以通過我們擁有的業務實現的持續增長。

For 7 -- for 6, 7, 8 years, this business grows at a very fast clip and we don't have to do anything else, and we'll do -- we can meet, we think, the returns that we've set out for the company.

7年、6年、7年、8年，這項業務以非常快的速度增長，我們不需要做任何其他事情，我們會做——我們認為，我們可以滿足我們的回報。已經出發去公司了。

Once the business matures, if we haven't done anything else, 10 years from now, the growth rate will slow.

一旦業務成熟了，如果我們不做其他事情，10年後，增長速度就會放緩。

Of course, we're going to do other things.

當然，我們還會做其他事情。

And what we need to do is between now and 10 years from now is figure out how do we widen out the franchise and use what we have from -- for the brand and our fundraising capabilities and our investment capabilities to add other products for our clients, and we don't think that will be an issue.

從現在到十年後，我們需要做的是弄清楚如何擴大特許經營權並利用我們所擁有的品牌、我們的籌款能力和投資能力為我們的客戶添加其他產品，我們認為這不會成為問題。

But -- so the reason for the comment was really twofold.

但是——所以這個評論的原因實際上是雙重的。

One to say that the growth rate is -- we'll not have to do anything for the next 7, 8 years.

可以說，增長率是——我們在接下來的七、八年裡不需要做任何事情。

Post that, we need to figure out, but we have a long time to figure that out.

發布後，我們需要弄清楚，但我們有很長的時間來弄清楚。

Most companies can't give you that predictability on the growth of the business from that perspective.

大多數公司無法從這個角度為您提供業務增長的可預測性。

Your next question comes from Mario Saric with Scotiabank.

您的下一個問題來自豐業銀行的馬里奧·薩里奇。

I just wanted to piggyback off of the last question with respect to this post 2025.

我只是想藉用關於 2025 年之後的最後一個問題。

One thing that you've talked about in the past is just trying to identify perhaps what the optimal balance sheet for Brookfield Asset Management looks like over time.

您過去談到的一件事就是試圖確定隨著時間的推移，布魯克菲爾德資產管理公司的最佳資產負債表可能會是什麼樣子。

And I was just wondering how that may play into any potential restructuring, if you will, as you go through that next phase of your evolution?

我只是想知道，當你經歷下一階段的發展時，如果你願意的話，這可能會如何影響任何潛在的重組？

Yes, thanks for the question.

是的，謝謝你的提問。

I would just say that our -- we are always open to doing things with the company that maximize the value for all the shareholders in the business in the longer term.

我只想說，我們始終願意與公司合作，從長遠來看，為企業中的所有股東實現價值最大化。

So if that means 10 years from now that we should distribute capital out to shareholders, then, of course, we'll do that.

因此，如果這意味著十年後我們應該向股東分配資本，那麼我們當然會這樣做。

And at some point, that might make sense.

在某些時候，這可能是有道理的。

I think if you would've looked back 20 years ago or even 10 years ago and looked at where we are with the business today, we might have said we were overcapitalized and we should distribute capital out.

我認為，如果你回顧 20 年前甚至 10 年前，看看我們今天的業務狀況，我們可能會說我們資本過剩，我們應該分配資本。

The thing -- the differentiation is this business keeps get -- getting bigger, and we can use the capital we have to keep building a bigger franchise.

問題是——差異化在於這項業務不斷變得更大——我們可以利用我們擁有的資本來繼續建立更大的特許經營權。

And we think that'll continue for a while.

我們認為這種情況會持續一段時間。

At the point when the franchise doesn't get built and we can't put the money productively to work, then we will look at what we do with that capital, whether we increase dividend to give back to shareholders or buy back shares or distribute it out in some other form.

當特許經營權沒有建立起來並且我們無法有效地利用這些資金時，我們將考慮如何使用這些資本，是增加股息以回饋股東還是回購股票或分配以其他形式表現出來。

So look, we're open to all suggestions and we look at it all the time.

所以看，我們對所有建議持開放態度，並且我們一直在考慮。

Right now, I'd say we think that it's an enormous competitive advantage to have the capital we have, and that gives us a lot of ways to grow the business that others don't have.

現在，我想說的是，我們認為擁有我們擁有的資本是一個巨大的競爭優勢，這為我們提供了很多其他人沒有的方式來發展業務。

Okay.

好的。

And then my second question, just again referencing the letter to shareholders and specifically the market environment.

然後是我的第二個問題，再次提到致股東的信，特別是市場環境。

You've been noting more of a cautious stance in the last several quarters, just kind of referencing the elongated expansion.

您在過去幾個季度中一直注意到更加謹慎的立場，只是參考了長期的擴張。

And then, I guess, in this letter, also referencing a couple of specific items that may raise kind of question marks with respect to valuation in the broader markets making you a bit more cautious.

然後，我想，在這封信中，還提到了一些具體項目，這些項目可能會對更廣泛市場的估值提出一些問號，讓您更加謹慎。

How do you -- outside of pace of capital deployment, how does that shift the deployment mix in terms of capital allocation for you?

除了資本部署的步伐之外，您如何改變資本配置方面的部署組合？

And how has the cycle change develop in the last 3 to 6 months for the shift in the mix in terms of how you deploy capital's changing?

過去 3 到 6 個月中，在資本配置方式發生變化方面，組合變化的周期變化是如何發展的？

I would just say that we always are investing and we're always putting money to work.

我只想說，我們一直在投資，我們一直在把錢投入到工作中。

We try to move our capital to where value is.

我們試圖將資本轉移到有價值的地方。

So where -- everywhere in the world today, there is not overvalued and every industry isn't overvalued.

因此，當今世界任何地方，都沒有被高估，也沒有每個行業都被高估。

There are many businesses, I referenced 2 of them being the SunEdison subsidiaries and Westinghouse, that these are 2 bankruptcies that happened in the United States.

有很多企業，我提到其中兩個是SunEdison子公司和西屋公司，這是在美國發生的兩個破產事件。

So this is the most liquid, highly valued market in the world over the past 12 months.

因此，這是過去 12 個月全球流動性最強、估值最高的市場。

And we -- those are over $10 billion of assets we purchased because of 2 specific situations.

我們因兩種具體情況購買了超過 100 億美元的資產。

So we're always putting money to work.

所以我們總是把錢投入到工作中。

I would just say on balance though, we try to have themes of should we be more cautious or more aggressive.

不過，我想說的是，總的來說，我們嘗試設定的主題是我們應該更加謹慎還是更加激進。

And in 2009, while we were worried like everybody else, we viewed that the best thing we could possibly do was, as much as prudently possible, we were trying to put money to work at that point in time.

2009 年，雖然我們像其他人一樣擔心，但我們認為我們能做的最好的事情就是盡可能謹慎地在那時努力投入資金。

That wouldn't be the -- what we are added to today, as we should be cautious.

那不會是我們今天添加的內容，因為我們應該保持謹慎。

We should keep investing because we have strategies to invest and we have to keep growing our businesses.

我們應該繼續投資，因為我們有投資策略，而且我們必須不斷發展我們的業務。

But on balance with excess capital we have on our own balance sheet and with funds, we're just a little more cautious today in some of the more highly valued markets.

但考慮到我們自己的資產負債表和資金上的過剩資本，我們今天在一些估值較高的市場上更加謹慎一些。

But that doesn't mean we're into other places and that's really the value we have in a broad -- the breadth of the franchise because there are places still in the world that are undervalued today.

但這並不意味著我們會進入其他地方，這確實是我們在廣泛的範圍內所擁有的價值——特許經營的廣度，因為今天世界上仍然有一些地方被低估。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from Andrew Kuske with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Andrew Kuske。

Question is probably for Brian and it just relates to the ENI comparative and I appreciate that being in the results this time around.

問題可能是針對 Brian 的，它只與 ENI 比較有關，我很高興這次出現在結果中。

But maybe beyond the really obvious -- but you might want to also address the really obvious is why did you include the ENI in your supplemental today?

但也許超出了真正明顯的範圍 - 但您可能還想解決真正明顯的問題，即為什麼您今天在補充材料中包含 ENI？

So thanks, Andrew.

謝謝，安德魯。

The -- what we're really trying to do is get out some comparable metrics relative to the other alternative asset managers and try and facilitate that.

我們真正想做的是找出一些相對於其他另類資產管理公司的可比指標，並嘗試促進這一點。

And if you do think about -- and as you know, how we think about the business, there really are -- the easiest way to think about is with the 2 components.

如果你確實考慮過——正如你所知，我們如何看待業務，確實有——最簡單的思考方法就是考慮這兩個組成部分。

One is the economics of the asset management business itself, and then the other is the tangible value of our balance sheet.

一是資產管理業務本身的經濟性，二是我們資產負債表的有形價值。

And so by putting out the ENI, it gives folks insight into the fee-related earnings as well as the carry that we book, but more -- as importantly or more importantly, the amount of carry that is generating and building up in the system.

因此，通過推出 ENI，它可以讓人們深入了解與費用相關的收入以及我們預訂的利差，但更重要的是，更重要的是，系統中生成和建立的利差金額。

And we think now the business has evolved to the stage where that is more representative.

我們認為現在業務已經發展到更具代表性的階段。

There's still a lag, but it's more representative of what's actually going on, whereas 5 years to go, I'm not sure, would have been as good a metric for valuation purposes.

雖然仍然存在滯後，但它更能代表實際情況，而我不確定未來 5 年是否是一個很好的估值指標。

And then maybe just a follow-up on that.

然後也許只是後續行動。

When you think about your ENI calculation and how it compares to some of the U.S. alts, how do you think about the quality of your ENI number versus the U.S. alts' that tend to be very reliant upon IPO markets for cycling assets?

當您考慮您的 ENI 計算以及它與一些美國替代品相比時，您如何看待您的 ENI 數字與美國替代品相比的質量，這些美國替代品往往非常依賴 IPO 市場的循環資產？

Yes.

是的。

So I think really what that's getting at is on the carry side of it.

所以我認為真正的問題在於它的利差方面。

And so we would maintain that -- the IPO markets obviously are relevant as an exit for certain types of investments.

因此，我們堅持認為，IPO 市場顯然與某些類型的投資退出相關。

We feel fortunate in that because of the breadth of the business that we're in, and in particular, the nature of some of the businesses that they're in that they lend to a much wider variety of exit opportunities.

我們感到很幸運，因為我們所從事的業務非常廣泛，特別是他們所從事的一些業務的性質，它們提供了更廣泛的退出機會。

And so we think that our ability to crystallize carry should be more robust as a result and that we -- because we have more options on how we can monetize an investment.

因此，我們認為，我們的套利具體化能力應該因此而變得更加強勁，因為我們在如何將投資貨幣化方面有更多選擇。

There are no further questions queued up at this time.

目前沒有其他問題排隊。

I'll turn the call back over to Suzanne Fleming for closing remarks.

我會將電話轉回給蘇珊·弗萊明 (Suzanne Fleming)，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator.

謝謝你，接線員。

And with that, we'll end today's call.

我們就這樣結束今天的通話。

Thank you, everybody, for participating.

謝謝大家的參與。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。