BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT LTD (BAM) 2016 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Brookfield Asset Management Q4 and year-end 2016 conference call.

歡迎參加 Brookfield Asset Management 第四季度和 2016 年年底電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

The conference is being recorded.

會議正在錄製中。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Suzanne Fleming, Senior Vice President of Communications. Please go ahead, Ms. Fleming.

現在我想將會議交給負責通訊的高級副總裁蘇珊·弗萊明 (Suzanne Fleming)。請繼續，弗萊明女士。

Good morning. Welcome to Brookfield's first quarter and year-end conference call. On the line today are Bruce Flatt, our Chief Executive Officer, and Brian Lawson, our Chief Financial Officer.

早上好。歡迎參加布魯克菲爾德第一季度和年終電話會議。今天接通電話的是我們的首席執行官布魯斯·弗拉特 (Bruce Flatt) 和首席財務官布萊恩·勞森 (Brian Lawson)。

Brian will start off by discussing the highlights of our financial and operating results for the quarter, and Bruce will then give an overview of our market outlook and Brookfield's approach to investing. After our formal comments, we'll turn the call over to the operator and take your questions.

布萊恩將首先討論我們本季度財務和運營業績的亮點，然後布魯斯將概述我們的市場前景和布魯克菲爾德的投資方法。在我們提出正式意見後，我們會將電話轉給接線員並回答您的問題。

In order to accommodate all those who want to ask questions, we ask that you refrain from asking multiple questions at one time, in order to provide an opportunity for others in the queue. We will be happy to respond to additional questions later in the call, as time permits.

為了方便所有想提問的人，我們要求您不要一次提出多個問題，以便為隊列中的其他人提供機會。如果時間允許，我們很樂意在稍後的電話會議中回答其他問題。

I would like to remind you that in responding to questions, and in talking about new initiatives and our financial and operating performance, we may make forward-looking statements, including forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and US securities law. These statements reflect predictions of future events and trends that do not relate to historic events. They're subject to known and unknown risks, and future events may differ materially from such statements.

我想提醒您，在回答問題以及談論新舉措以及我們的財務和運營業績時，我們可能會做出前瞻性聲明，包括適用的加拿大和美國證券法含義內的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述反映了與歷史事件無關的對未來事件和趨勢的預測。它們面臨已知和未知的風險，未來事件可能與此類聲明存在重大差異。

For further information on these risks and their potential impacts on our Company, please see our filings with the securities regulators in Canada and the US, and the information available on our website. Thank you, and I will now turn the call over to Brian.

有關這些風險及其對我們公司的潛在影響的更多信息，請參閱我們向加拿大和美國證券監管機構提交的文件以及我們網站上提供的信息。謝謝您，我現在將把電話轉給布萊恩。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning. We're pleased with the results for 2016. In particular, they highlight the significant expansion of our asset management business, which Bruce will expand on in his remarks.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，早上好。我們對 2016 年的業績感到滿意。特別是，它們突顯了我們資產管理業務的顯著擴張，Bruce 將在他的講話中詳細闡述這一點。

But in summary, we continued to expand our fee-bearing capital. Highlights include closing $30 billion of private funds and launching Brookfield Business Partners, we invested or committed nearly $20 billion of capital to a number of attractive opportunities across our asset strategies and geographies, and we posted good financial results that are indicative of this progress.

但總的來說，我們繼續擴大我們的收費資本。亮點包括關閉300 億美元的私募基金和成立Brookfield Business Partners，我們向資產戰略和地區的許多有吸引力的機會投資或承諾了近200 億美元的資本，我們公佈的良好財務業績表明了這一進展。

So turning to those financial results, funds from operations, or FFO, for the year totaled $3.2 billion, and that is up 26% over 2015. You can break this down into three components: Our asset management activities generated $861 million of fee-related earnings and carried interest, that's up 53%; invested capital contributed $1.5 billion, that's up 22%; and our share of realized disposition gains totalled $923 million, and that is up 10%. Net income for the year was $3.3 billion, or $1.55 per share. This was lower than last year, principally because 2015 included a higher level of fair value changes relative to 2016.

因此，從這些財務業績來看，今年運營資金(FFO) 總額為32 億美元，比2015 年增長了26%。您可以將其分為三個部分： 我們的資產管理活動產生了8.61 億美元的費用相關費用收益和附帶利息增長了 53%；投資資本貢獻15億美元，增長22%；我們的已實現處置收益份額總計 9.23 億美元，增長了 10%。該年度淨利潤為 33 億美元，即每股 1.55 美元。這低於去年，主要是因為 2015 年的公允價值變動水平高於 2016 年。

I will now cover some of the highlights within FFO. Asset management FFO included $712 million of fee-related earnings, and $149 million of carried interest. Our fee revenues increased by 31% to $1.1 billion. This was due largely to the higher level of fee-bearing capital, which stood at $110 billion at year end, and that is up 24% from the beginning of 2015.

現在我將介紹 FFO 中的一些亮點。資產管理 FFO 包括 7.12 億美元的費用相關收益和 1.49 億美元的附帶權益。我們的費用收入增長了 31%，達到 11 億美元。這主要是由於收費資本水平較高，截至年底為 1,100 億美元，比 2015 年初增長了 24%。

Much of the growth related to increases in private fund capital, including that $30 billion in new funds closed last year; however, we also expanded the capitalization of our listed issuers through the issuance of new capital, increased values, and the launch of Brookfield Business Partners. And incentive distributions also increased, in line with the increase in distribution rates to unit holders. As a result, fee-related earnings, which represent fee revenues less direct costs, increased by 44%, and our gross margins increased from 57% to 62%, which speaks to the scalable nature of our operations.

大部分增長與私募基金資本的增加有關，包括去年完成的 300 億美元新基金；然而，我們還通過發行新資本、增加價值以及成立 Brookfield Business Partners 擴大了上市發行人的資本。隨著單位持有人分配率的增加，激勵分配也有所增加。結果，與費用相關的收入（代表費用收入減去直接成本）增加了 44%，我們的毛利率從 57% 增加到 62%，這說明了我們業務的可擴展性。

Turning to carried interest for a minute, we recorded $149 million of carried interest, compared with $32 million in 2015. As a reminder, our accounting policies require us to defer recognition of carry until there is only a remote possibility of a clawback, which means that we tend to defer carry until very late in the life of a fund. In this case, we monetized several assets from funds that are well into their distribution phase, which crystallized some of the carry that had built up over the life of the funds.

談談附帶權益，我們記錄了 1.49 億美元的附帶權益，而 2015 年為 3200 萬美元。提醒一下，我們的會計政策要求我們推遲確認附帶權益，直到收回的可能性很小，這意味著我們傾向於將套利推遲到基金生命週期的最後階段。在這種情況下，我們將處於分配階段的基金中的幾項資產貨幣化，這使基金生命週期中積累的一些利差具體化。

Accumulated unrealized carry across all of our funds at year end stood at approximately $900 million, and that is up from $660 million at the beginning of the year. I would note that these amounts are still well below what we describe as target carry, which currently stands at $860 million annually, and that represents the carry that we stand to earn if we achieve the target investment returns for our funds, amortized on a straight-line basis.

截至年底，我們所有基金的未實現結轉累計額約為 9 億美元，高於年初的 6.6 億美元。我要指出的是，這些金額仍然遠低於我們所說的目標利差，目前目標利差為每年8.6 億美元，這代表瞭如果我們實現基金的目標投資回報，我們將獲得的利差（按直線攤銷）線基礎。

Now, there is a natural lag in how the carry actually materializes, because it takes time to deploy the capital, and because, as I mentioned, we defer recognition in our financial statements. But we do expect the carry will become a more meaningful part of our operating results on both a realized and the unrealized basis, as our recent larger funds are invested and mature.

現在，套利的實際實現存在自然滯後，因為部署資本需要時間，而且正如我提到的，我們推遲在財務報表中確認。但我們確實預計，隨著我們最近較大的基金的投資和成熟，套利將成為我們已實現和未實現運營業績中更有意義的一部分。

Notwithstanding the closing of flagship funds in each of our major strategies in 2016, we continue to have an active pipeline of fundraising activities, with three funds in the market targeting $4 billion of capital. This includes our first perpetual open-ended core real estate fund, and we expect this to become a meaningful part of our real estate business, moving forward.

儘管我們在 2016 年關閉了每個主要戰略中的旗艦基金，但我們仍然擁有活躍的籌款活動渠道，市場上的三隻基金的目標資本額為 40 億美元。這包括我們的第一個永久開放式核心房地產基金，我們預計這將成為我們未來房地產業務的一個有意義的部分。

In addition, we have been successful in finding attractive investment opportunities for our three flagship funds in property infrastructure and private equity, which are now 65%, 40%, and 35% investor-committed, respectively. And this ability to find attractive investment opportunities quickly means that we can put capital to work sooner for our clients, and also means that we can commence fundraising for the successor funds, once the existing funds are sufficiently invested.

此外，我們還成功為房地產基礎設施和私募股權領域的三支旗艦基金找到了有吸引力的投資機會，目前投資者承諾率分別為 65%、40% 和 35%。這種快速找到有吸引力的投資機會的能力意味著我們可以更快地為客戶投入資金，也意味著一旦現有資金得到充分投資，我們就可以開始為後續基金籌集資金。

So turning to the results from our invested capital, FFO was favorably impacted by performance in our property group. This segment increased by 17% as a result of higher returns from existing properties, reflecting leasing initiatives, particularly the commencement of major leases in our New York market, but it was also from the contribution from capital deployed within our opportunistic investment strategies.

因此，從我們投資資本的結果來看，FFO 受到我們房地產集團業績的有利影響。該部門增長了 17%，原因是現有物業的回報率較高，反映了租賃舉措，特別是我們紐約市場主要租賃的開始，但這也來自我們機會主義投資策略中部署的資本的貢獻。

We also achieved a higher level of FFO within our private equity operations, due to higher pricing volumes at certain of our operations, particularly our panel-board business, although this was partially offset by lower returns from some of our portfolio businesses in the energy and industrial sectors, and our Brazil residential operations, which continue to be impacted by slower economic growth there. Infrastructure FFO increased by 17%, due to the strong activity in our UK connections business, expansion in our transport and energy operations, and increased ownership of our North American natural gas transmission operations.

由於我們的某些業務（特別是我們的面板業務）的定價量較高，我們在私募股權業務中也實現了更高水平的FFO，儘管這被我們在能源和能源領域的一些投資組合業務的較低迴報所部分抵消。工業部門以及我們的巴西住宅業務繼續受到當地經濟增長放緩的影響。由於我們英國連接業務的強勁活動、運輸和能源業務的擴張以及北美天然氣傳輸業務所有權的增加，基礎設施 FFO 增長了 17%。

Renewable power FFO declined by 13%. The impact of lower generation in our Northeastern Hydro operations in the US, as well as lower pricing, was partially offset by the contribution from recently-acquired assets in Colombia, Brazil, and Pennsylvania.

可再生能源 FFO 下降了 13%。我們在美國東北水電業務中發電量下降以及定價較低的影響被最近在哥倫比亞、巴西和賓夕法尼亞州收購的資產的貢獻所部分抵消。

Finally, we achieved improved returns from our financial asset portfolios, reflecting better market performance. And looking ahead, we are well-positioned to pursue investment opportunities, with $9 billion of core liquidity across Brookfield in our listed issuers, and a further $20 billion of uncalled commitments to our private funds, for a total firepower of nearly $30 billion. Furthermore, we continue to have good momentum across our fundraising strategies, which we believe will allow us to continue to expand our fee-bearing capital during the next few years.

最後，我們的金融資產組合回報率有所提高，反映出更好的市場表現。展望未來，我們已做好充分準備來尋求投資機會，我們的上市發行人在布魯克菲爾德擁有90 億美元的核心流動性，以及對我們私人基金的200 億美元未兌現承諾，總火力接近300 億美元。此外，我們的籌款策略繼續保持良好勢頭，我們相信這將使我們能夠在未來幾年繼續擴大我們的收費資本。

During the year, we closed or committed to nearly $20 billion of investments across all of our asset classes and geographies. We believe our global reach, large-scale capital, and operating capabilities has allowed us to put this capital to work at attractive returns for our clients and our own capital.

這一年裡，我們在所有資產類別和地區完成或承諾了近 200 億美元的投資。我們相信，我們的全球影響力、大規模資本和運營能力使我們能夠利用這些資本為我們的客戶和我們自己的資本帶來有吸引力的回報。

Some examples of what was included in this number are: our high-quality mixed-use properties in Seoul, Mumbai, and Berlin; a hospitality self-storage and student housing in North America and the UK; a major Hydro portfolio in Colombia; Hydro facilities in Brazil, US, and wind facility developments in the UK; pipeline and transmission projects in Brazil; toll roads in Peru and India, and a cell phone tower business in India; and our private equity group secured a leading water distribution and treatment business in Brazil; and a provider of growth fields in the UK. So as you can see, we have been very busy investing the capital on behalf of all of our clients, and that tends to benefit all of us.

該數字中包含的一些示例包括：我們在首爾、孟買和柏林的高品質混合用途物業；北美和英國的酒店自助倉儲和學生宿舍；哥倫比亞的主要水電投資組合；巴西、美國的水力設施和英國的風能設施開發；巴西的管道和傳輸項目；秘魯和印度的收費公路，以及印度的手機信號塔業務；我們的私募股權集團在巴西獲得了領先的供水和處理業務；以及英國的增長領域提供商。正如您所看到的，我們一直非常忙於代表所有客戶進行資本投資，這往往會使我們所有人受益。

Finally, as we approach the distribution phase of more of our private funds, we expect to be able to firm up and ultimately recognize increased carried interest, which should demonstrate the significant value of this to the business overall.

最後，當我們接近更多私募基金的分配階段時，我們期望能夠堅定並最終認識到附帶權益的增加，這應該表明這對整個業務的重大價值。

And finally, in conclusion, I am pleased to announce that the Board of Directors has approved an 8% increase in our quarterly dividend to $0.14 per share, which will be paid at the end of March. Thank you, and with that, I will now turn the call over to Bruce.

最後，我很高興地宣布，董事會已批准將我們的季度股息增加 8%，達到每股 0.14 美元，並將於 3 月底支付。謝謝您，我現在將把電話轉給布魯斯。

Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. First, I will address fundraising and our investment themes. I will then move to our views in markets in general and talk about a little bit about interest rates. Following that, Brian and I would be happy to take questions if there are any.

謝謝你，布萊恩，大家早上好。首先，我將討論籌款和我們的投資主題。然後我將轉向我們對市場的總體看法，並談談一些有關利率的問題。接下來，如果有任何問題，布萊恩和我很樂意回答。

With respect to fundraising, as Brian mentioned, institutional investors continue to allocate greater portions of their funds to real assets. This enabled us to raise $30 billion in capital during 2016 for private strategies, in our latest round of fundraising. And it included among the largest infrastructure and real estate funds globally.

關於籌款，正如布萊恩提到的，機構投資者繼續將更大比例的資金分配給實物資產。這使我們能夠在 2016 年最新一輪融資中為私人戰略籌集 300 億美元的資金。它包括全球最大的基礎設施和房地產基金之一。

As part of the shift to real assets, we are now starting to see greater allocations from traditional fixed income portfolios into private credit strategies, and we think that will continue. We have been expanding our credit capabilities for a number of years, and are now fundraising with meaningful capital for these strategies. Over time this could result in significant additional assets under management.

作為轉向實物資產的一部分，我們現在開始看到更多的配置從傳統的固定收益投資組合轉向私人信貸策略，我們認為這種情況將持續下去。多年來，我們一直在擴大信貸能力，現在正在為這些戰略籌集有意義的資金。隨著時間的推移，這可能會導致管理的資產顯著增加。

Our investing themes today continue to revolve around, similar to what they have been over the last number of years, which are utilizing our competitive strengths of size, global footprint and operating capabilities. We are allocating capital to most of our investment market, but disproportionately to the emerging economies, where we believe we are still buying good value in slowly recovering economies.

今天，我們的投資主題繼續圍繞著與過去幾年類似的方向，即利用我們在規模、全球足跡和運營能力方面的競爭優勢。我們將資本配置到大部分投資市場，但不成比例地配置到新興經濟體，我們相信我們仍在緩慢復甦的經濟體中購買有價值的股票。

Given the strong growth of both our listed partnerships and our asset management operations, our business today increasingly generates significant free cash flow. The combination of fee-related earnings from asset management activities, combined with the distributions we received from our invested capital provides the parent company with $2 billion-plus of inflows. And as we pay corporate cost interest and preferreds, we're left with about $1.5 billion to reinvest in the business, pay dividends or repurchase shares. This number will increase meaningfully annually over time and we are continuing to focus on where to deploy this capital.

鑑於我們的上市合作夥伴關係和資產管理業務的強勁增長，我們今天的業務日益產生大量的自由現金流。資產管理活動產生的與費用相關的收益，加上我們從投資資本中收到的分配，為母公司提供了超過 20 億美元的資金流入。當我們支付公司成本利息和優先股時，我們剩下大約 15 億美元用於對業務進行再投資、支付股息或回購股票。隨著時間的推移，這個數字每年都會顯著增加，我們將繼續關注如何部署這筆資金。

Turning to the market environment, despite all the political turmoil that one hears in the newspapers every morning, most of the economies in which we participate are doing well, or are generally recovering. This has set a backdrop for a very constructive investment environment for us.

談到市場環境，儘管人們每天早上都能在報紙上聽到各種政治動盪，但我們參與的大多數經濟體都表現良好，或者總體正在復蘇。這為我們創造了非常有建設性的投資環境。

Turning to a few of the markets, in the US, we continue to believe, as we have for years that interest rates will grind upwards to the 3% to 4% range. We have not changed our overall view with the election of a new government.

轉向美國的一些市場，我們仍然相信，多年來我們一直認為利率將上升至 3% 至 4% 的範圍。我們並沒有因為新政府的選舉而改變我們的總體看法。

We do, however, believe that we may get to the top end of the interest rate range sooner than we might have otherwise expected, and we might even stretch the top end of former expectations before we hit a recession, and the cycle starts over. But we should remember that if interest rates climb faster, it also means that growth is stronger than what we would have expected. In this environment, all of our investments should do well.

然而，我們確實相信，我們可能會比我們預期的更早達到利率區間的上限，甚至可能在陷入衰退之前超出之前預期的上限，然後周期重新開始。但我們應該記住，如果利率攀升得更快，也意味著經濟增長比我們預期的要強勁。在這種環境下，我們所有的投資都應該表現良好。

Europe and the UK have extremely low interest rates, and it looks like these will exist for some time, given political turmoil, demographics, and the underlying economies of many of the countries. Despite this, we're finding many investments that can earn high leverage cash returns, due to the correspondingly low borrowing rates which we can finance with.

歐洲和英國的利率極低，考慮到許多國家的政治動盪、人口結構和基礎經濟，這種利率看起來將持續一段時間。儘管如此，我們發現許多投資可以獲得高槓桿現金回報，因為我們可以融資的借款利率相應較低。

Turning to South America, it's recovering slowly, following the shock of low commodity prices, and the unwind of excesses from the boom. We believe Brazil has bottomed, but the political aftershocks of the government investigations are still being worked through. Chile, Colombia, and Peru, while great countries, are also each dealing with their own set of discrete issues. But from an investment perspective, this has and continues to present us with great opportunities in most of the countries in many of our businesses.

轉向南美洲，在大宗商品價格低迷的衝擊以及繁榮帶來的過度消費的緩解之後，它正在緩慢復甦。我們相信巴西已經觸底，但政府調查的政治餘波仍在消除中。智利、哥倫比亞和秘魯雖然是偉大的國家，但也各自處理著自己的一系列離散問題。但從投資的角度來看，這已經並將繼續為我們在大多數國家的許多業務中提供巨大的機會。

India has made tremendous strides with its economy, and recently reduced interest rates for the first time in this cycle. Despite this, the loan stress across the bank system needs to be worked through, and as a result, we are being presented with a number of great opportunities across our businesses.

印度經濟取得了巨大進步，最近在本週期中首次降低了利率。儘管如此，整個銀行系統的貸款壓力仍然需要解決，因此，我們的業務面臨著許多巨大的機遇。

In China, they continue to build out one of the greatest economic transformations ever undertaken. We believe they will be successful, but one should always remember that transformation never goes in a straight line.

在中國，他們繼續推進有史以來最偉大的經濟轉型之一。我們相信他們會成功，但人們應該永遠記住，轉型永遠不會是直線進行的。

As a result, we are being very disciplined as we build our operations and investment strategies, but we continue to find interesting ways to invest, and also have made great strides in partnering with a number of world-class financial institutions and institutional partners in the region. These opportunities for both investing and fundraising should continue for years.

因此，我們在製定運營和投資策略時非常自律，但我們繼續尋找有趣的投資方式，並且在與許多世界級金融機構和機構合作夥伴的合作方面也取得了長足進步。地區。這些投資和籌款機會應該會持續多年。

Lastly with respect to interest rates, for years, we have been operating with the expectation that interest rates will increase in the United States. Our working assumption has been that the economy was getting stronger, and that eventually interest rates would be able to rise as a result of that.

最後關於利率，多年來，我們一直預期美國的利率將會上升。我們的工作假設是經濟正在變得更加強勁，最終利率將因此而上升。

With rates having been virtually zero in the US for seven years, a 1% or 2% increase in rates on the short or long end of the curve means very little to the long-term return on a real asset investment. We have assumed for years in our underwriting that a 10-year treasury would be, as I said, 3% to 4%, and we continue to base all our investment decisions with this analysis.

由於美國的利率已經連續七年幾乎為零，曲線短端或長端的利率上升 1% 或 2% 對實物資產投資的長期回報意義不大。正如我所說，多年來我們在承保中一直假設 10 年期國債利率為 3% 至 4%，並且我們將繼續以這一分析為基礎做出所有投資決策。

The 10-year rate has now increased to, I see 2.35% this morning, but circa 2.5%, which is about where it was 12 months ago. At that time, everyone seemed to be worried about deflation. Now the concern seems to be inflation. More important, in this cycle, there have been very few sophisticated lenders or acquirers of real estate or infrastructure that have had a different view on interest rates than what I just articulated.

我今天早上看到 10 年期利率現在已經上升到 2.35%，但大約是 2.5%，大約是 12 個月前的水平。當時，大家似乎都在擔心通貨緊縮。現在人們擔心的似乎是通貨膨脹。更重要的是，在這個週期中，很少有成熟的房地產或基礎設施貸款方或收購方對利率的看法與我剛才闡述的不同。

As a result, cap rates have been stubbornly high relative to interest rates for one specific reason, and that is that everyone knew interest rates were going to go up, and that no one therefore has been willing to reduce cap rates to levels that match the unduly low interest rates.

結果，由於一個特定原因，資本化率相對於利率一直居高不下，那就是每個人都知道利率會上升，因此沒有人願意將資本化率降低到與實際利率相匹配的水平。利率過低。

As a result, our business is positioned to thrive in a higher interest rate environment for really three simple reasons: The first and probably most important is that we own real return assets, and these are assets which increase their cash flow generating capacity over time.

因此，我們的業務能夠在更高的利率環境中蓬勃發展，原因實際上有三個：第一個也是最重要的原因是我們擁有真正的回報資產，這些資產隨著時間的推移會增加其現金流生成能力。

Either through, one, contractual rights; two, our ability to operate them better; or three, our ability to expand or grow the business. These enhancements should far outpace any interest costs in particular, in a more inflationary environment, and especially if the business environment is constructive.

要么通過，一，合同權利；二是我們更好地運營它們的能力；第三，我們擴展或發展業務的能力。這些增強措施應遠遠超過任何利息成本，特別是在通脹加劇的環境下，尤其是在商業環境具有建設性的情況下。

Second, we generally earn total returns on equity of between 10% and 20%. This is much greater than treasury yields, and therefore a few percentage points increases on interest rates really aren't material in the longer term. And third or last, much of the debt that we have on assets is fixed-rate debt, and therefore cash flows until maturity of that debt will not change at all, even if interest rates do increase.

其次，我們的總股本回報率一般在10%到20%之間。這比國債收益率高得多，因此從長遠來看，利率上升幾個百分點實際上並不重要。第三或最後一點，我們的資產債務大部分是固定利率債務，因此即使利率確實上升，債務到期之前的現金流也不會發生根本變化。

Lastly on interest rates, we still believe that odds are currently stacked heavily in favor of lower-than-usual interest rates in the US, for the medium term, if not longer. And that's largely because of upwards of $50 trillion of savings in the world that needs to earn a return, and we should all remember that rates in many parts of the world continue to be very, very low. These savings are increasingly targeted at returns and dependability that come from investments in the United States, and this should keep rates down for a while.

最後關於利率，我們仍然認為，從中期來看，甚至更長時間內，美國利率低於正常水平的可能性很大。這主要是因為世界上有超過 50 萬億美元的儲蓄需要獲得回報，而且我們都應該記住，世界許多地區的利率仍然非常非常低。這些儲蓄越來越多地針對在美國投資的回報和可靠性，這應該會在一段時間內降低利率。

Operator, that completes my remarks. I will turn it over to you, and Brian or I will take questions, if there are any.

接線員，我的發言完畢。我會把它交給你，如果有任何問題，布萊恩或我會回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Cherilyn Radbourne, TD Securities.

Cherilyn Radbourne，道明證券。

I wanted to start by asking about your new perpetual private real estate fund, and what role it might have to play as your opportunistic real estate funds reach maturity? In other words, does it have the potential to provide a continuity vehicle for marquee assets that might be desirable to hold for the long term versus monetize?

我想首先詢問一下你們新推出的永久私人房地產基金，以及當你們的機會主義房地產基金成熟時，它可能發揮什麼作用？換句話說，它是否有可能為長期持有而不是貨幣化的大型資產提供連續性工具？

Yes. So just for everyone's benefit we created a core fund in the US, which is a perpetual vehicle. The initial fundraising was around $1 billion, and we expect that to grow quite substantially over time. Some similar funds are very large, in the $10 billion or $20 billion so we think over time this could be an increasingly attractive business for us, to hold assets on a perpetual basis. And these are assets which would not otherwise fit into our opportunistic business, and they may not fit in to our core-plus strategy, so they will be long-term assets to own for the clients that we would own, will own them for.

是的。因此，為了每個人的利益，我們在美國創建了一個核心基金，這是一個永久的工具。最初的籌款額約為 10 億美元，我們預計隨著時間的推移，籌款額將大幅增長。一些類似的基金規模非常大，達到 100 億美元或 200 億美元，因此我們認為，隨著時間的推移，永久持有資產對我們來說可能是一項越來越有吸引力的業務。這些資產原本不適合我們的機會主義業務，也可能不適合我們的核心+戰略，因此它們將成為我們將擁有的客戶的長期資產。

And so in direct response to your question is, it is a perpetual vehicle. We seeded it with seven investments that we had, four that were core properties, and three that were development properties, and we're building them to the price we sold them in at.

因此，對你的問題的直接回答是，它是一輛永恆的交通工具。我們用我們擁有的七項投資作為種子，其中四項是核心財產，三項是開發財產，我們正在按照我們出售的價格建造它們。

And so over time, it is possible that, but our intention is to continue to grow the business by just buying assets in the market. Obviously there's -- you have to be very careful dealing between funds with clients, but it is possible over time that some of the assets that we have in some of the strategies could find their way into that fund, but that is not the main intention of the business.

因此，隨著時間的推移，有可能出現這種情況，但我們的目的是通過在市場上購買資產來繼續發展業務。顯然，你必須非常小心地處理基金與客戶之間的關係，但隨著時間的推移，我們在某些策略中擁有的某些資產可能會進入該基金，但這不是主要目的的業務。

Okay. And second one for me is, Brookfield Infrastructure mentioned that it is monitoring the potential for opportunities to emerge in Mexico as sentiment overshoots to the downside post the election. Is that a geography that is of interest more broadly across the business or is it specific to Infrastructure, just because of the energy deregulation and so forth?

好的。對我來說第二個是，布魯克菲爾德基礎設施公司提到，隨著選舉後情緒過度下行，它正在監測墨西哥出現機會的潛力。這是整個企業更廣泛感興趣的地理位置，還是僅僅因為能源放鬆管制等原因而特定於基礎設施？

Yes. I would just say our, as you know, our business is about scale. It is about being global, and it is being about finding places where we can apply our operating skills and our operations. And we like to go to places when foreign direct investment dries up, therefore currencies are usually down, and opportunities are more readily available to someone who wants to invest, because others are not competing with you.

是的。我只想說，正如你所知，我們的業務關乎規模。這是關於全球化，是關於尋找我們可以運用我們的操作技能和運營的地方。我們喜歡去外國直接投資枯竭的地方，因此貨幣通常會貶值，想要投資的人更容易獲得機會，因為其他人不與你競爭。

So either you get a lower price than you otherwise might have, or you just have opportunities to buy assets. So we are, we will look at -- all of those things seem to look like they will apply in Mexico. We haven't had a large business in Mexico before. But it's possible in the future.

因此，要么你得到比本來可能有的價格更低的價格，要么你就有機會購買資產。所以我們會考慮——所有這些事情看起來都適用於墨西哥。我們之前在墨西哥沒有開展過大型業務。但這在未來是可能的。

Because of that, it could. Specifically, there are, there may be significant infrastructure and energy opportunities just given the scale in the country. And I think that is probably the greatest focus for us. But there could be other things we could do either private equity or real estate.

正因為如此，它可以。具體來說，考慮到該國的規模，可能存在重要的基礎設施和能源機會。我認為這可能是我們最關注的焦點。但我們還可以做其他事情，無論是私募股權還是房地產。

Great. That's my two. Thank you.

偉大的。那是我的兩個。謝謝。

Mario Saric, Scotiabank.

馬里奧·薩里奇，豐業銀行。

Maybe following up on the question on the perpetual open and core real estate fund, on the opportunistic side, your first major fund was launched in 2009, and you launched three large funds subsequent to that. So in terms of scope, I think Bruce, you mentioned there is equivalent $10 billion to $20 billion funds out there in the marketplace of similar structure. How do you see that evolution transpire over time? And then secondly, is this an opportunity that could be equally as big on the infrastructure side?

也許跟進永續開放和核心房地產基金的問題，在機會主義方面，你們的第一隻大型基金於2009年推出，隨後又推出了三隻大型基金。因此，就範圍而言，我認為 Bruce，您提到市場上有類似結構的相當於 100 億至 200 億美元的基金。您如何看待隨著時間的推移而發生的演變？其次，這是一個在基礎設施方面同樣巨大的機會嗎？

So I think given our past history, and that we are very -- generally we are longer term investors, I think in hindsight, we probably should have these funds many years ago. That was probably a mistake of ours. Having said that, I think we can catch up quickly and our pedigree is exactly what fits this type of fund.

因此，我認為考慮到我們過去的歷史，而且我們通常是長期投資者，事後看來，我們可能應該在很多年前就擁有這些基金。這可能是我們的一個錯誤。話雖如此，我認為我們可以很快趕上，而且我們的血統正是適合此類基金。

So I think we can grow very large business in real estate. I think we can do it in Infrastructure, I think we can do it in power. And I think all three of them, in many of the markets in the world where we operate, if we are in a low interest rate environment, will be very attractive for fixed-income alternatives. And in particular, if European, UK rates are going to be low for a long time, those will be very attractive.

所以我認為我們可以在房地產領域發展非常大的業務。我認為我們可以在基礎設施方面做到這一點，我認為我們可以在電力方面做到這一點。我認為，在我們經營的世界許多市場中，如果我們處於低利率環境中，這三個因素對於固定收益替代品都將非常有吸引力。特別是，如果歐洲和英國的利率長期處於低位，那麼這些利率將非常有吸引力。

Okay. And then my second question, just coming back to the carry interest it was good to see the realization of $141 million during the quarter. I think it was the first time we saw it since Q3 of 2015.

好的。然後是我的第二個問題，回到附帶利息，很高興看到本季度實現 1.41 億美元。我認為這是自 2015 年第三季度以來我們第一次看到它。

I think Brian you mentioned invested below your target, as you've highlighted, you've done a good job of illustrating when a target may become a reality over the next 10 to 15 years. That being said, can we expect to see somewhat more modest, recurring amounts coming through the income statement, similar to what we saw in 2015, based on near-term harvesting expectations?

我認為布萊恩你提到的投資低於你的目標，正如你所強調的，你已經很好地說明了目標何時可能在未來 10 到 15 年內成為現實。話雖如此，基於近期收穫預期，我們能否期望在損益表中看到更加溫和的經常性金額，類似於我們在 2015 年看到的情況？

I think that is a fair comment, Mario, we should -- we do have more of the funds that are in distribution phase, and as would have been noticed this time, the carry builds up, even in a smaller fund it will build up, and it ended up, and we have actually been paid it, but we don't actually book it until when you tip over that point where there is no longer that sufficient risk of clawback. So it is a little bit binary in a sense, when it comes to the recording in the financial statements, but we do have funds that are in that stage.

我認為這是一個公平的評論，馬里奧，我們應該- 我們確實有更多的基金處於分配階段，正如這次會注意到的那樣，利差會增加，即使是在較小的基金中也會增加，最終，我們實際上已經得到了付款，但我們實際上並沒有預訂，直到你翻到不再有足夠的回撥風險的時候。因此，從某種意義上說，當涉及到財務報表中的記錄時，它有點二元化，但我們確實有處於該階段的資金。

The larger funds however are more recent vintages, and so as you would've seen from some of the information we put out, it is going to take another couple of years before the really large amounts start to come in.

然而，規模較大的基金都是較新的年份，因此正如您從我們發布的一些信息中看到的那樣，還需要幾年時間才能開始真正大量資金流入。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

William Katz, Citigroup.

花旗集團的威廉·卡茨。

I appreciate all the extra comments as well. I think you mentioned in your CEO letter that, I may have gotten this wrong, but about 75% invested in the Real Estate II fund, which seemed to be very quick cycling time. If that is correct, how should we think about the timing and maybe the size of the next generation fund, and underneath that, is there any shift in pricing as we think about the management fee on that next generation of funds?

我也感謝所有額外的評論。我想您在首席執行官信中提到，我可能弄錯了，但大約 75% 的人投資於 Real Estate II 基金，這似乎是非常快的循環時間。如果這是正確的，我們應該如何考慮下一代基金的時機和規模，而在此基礎上，當我們考慮下一代基金的管理費時，定價是否會發生任何變化？

Sure. So, Bill, it is Brian here. Yes. Once you get to a certain -- and it is predetermined, level of a fund, it being invested and it is typically in and around the 70% to 80% range, that you can go out and launch a successor fund. And so obviously, we are within striking distance of that with this on the real estate side.

當然。那麼，比爾，這裡是布萊恩。是的。一旦你達到了某個基金的特定水平（這是預先確定的），它被投資並且通常在 70% 到 80% 的範圍內，你就可以出去推出後續基金。顯然，在房地產方面，我們距離這一點很近。

So you would expect to see us out in pretty short order. I would say at this stage, the history has been the successor funds tend to be larger than the existing funds, and we would not expect to differ in this regard. And I think it is probably a little bit early to be chatting about how we see the fee economics and things like that, but we think the market is still very constructive.

所以你會期望在很短的時間內見到我們。我想說，在現階段，歷史上後續基金往往比現有基金規模更大，我們預計在這方面不會有什麼不同。我認為現在談論我們如何看待費用經濟學和類似的事情可能有點早，但我們認為市場仍然非常有建設性。

Okay. Just a follow-up, you mentioned that you're going to be spinning your insurance operation to [sera], if I am saying it correctly, I apologize if not. But are there any other businesses, as you look across your portfolio that may be subscale that similarly could result in some streamlining of the operations?

好的。作為後續行動，您提到您將把您的保險業務轉移到[sera]，如果我說得對，如果不對，我深表歉意。但是，當您審視您的投資組合時，是否還有其他可能規模較小的業務同樣可能導致運營精簡？

Yes. So it's possible. We have obviously made use of spinoffs in the past, although for different reasons. You pointed out the difference here, and I would say we wouldn't be averse to doing it if the situation arose, but there's nothing immediately on the horizon in that regard.

是的。所以這是可能的。顯然，我們過去曾利用過衍生品，儘管出於不同的原因。您指出了這裡的差異，我想說，如果出現這種情況，我們不會反對這樣做，但在這方面還沒有立即出現的情況。

Okay. Well, thank you for taking my questions.

好的。嗯，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Mark Rothschild, Canaccord Genuity.

馬克·羅斯柴爾德，Canaccord Genuity。

You are pretty far along with investing in the next real estate fund that you mentioned, starting the next fund, the carried interest was pretty dramatic this quarter, and it seems the next couple of years it's going to be increasing. You did increase the dividend, albeit at relatively modest, considering the growth in cash flow. Can you expand maybe on how you look at dividend growth versus potential share buybacks, in the context of your current cash flow, and what you expect from the growth in fees? Considering the current share price?

您在投資您提到的下一個房地產基金方面已經取得了相當大的進展，啟動了下一個基金，本季度的附帶利息非常引人注目，而且似乎在未來幾年將會增加。考慮到現金流的增長，你確實增加了股息，儘管幅度相對較小。您能否在當前現金流的背景下詳細闡述您如何看待股息增長與潛在股票回購，以及您對費用增長的預期？考慮到目前的股價？

Sure. Thanks, Mark. It is Brian. So really it would be a balance, and I think this is the way you've seen us operate over the last period of time.

當然。謝謝，馬克。這是布萊恩.所以這確實是一種平衡，我認為這就是您在過去一段時間裡看到的我們的運作方式。

We do think it is a good thing to continue to increase the dividend at the rate that we have been doing it, and it has been pretty consistent over the past number of years, and I wouldn't look to see that change dramatically in the near term.

我們確實認為繼續以我們一直在做的速度增加股息是一件好事，而且在過去的幾年裡一直非常穩定，我不希望看到這種情況發生巨大的變化。短期。

We still see a lot of opportunity to put capital to work within the business. And I think we have highlighted the value that we can bring to the overall franchise, by having a very strong and liquid balance sheet, in terms of transaction execution.

我們仍然看到很多將資本投入到業務中的機會。我認為我們已經強調了通過在交易執行方面擁有非常強大和流動性的資產負債表，我們可以為整個特許經營帶來的價值。

So that's important to us, as well as seeding new funds with liquidity off our balance sheet. So we have got lots of opportunities to put that cash to work within the business, to increase returns. And that really compounds over time.

因此，這對我們很重要，同時利用資產負債表外的流動性注入新資金也很重要。因此，我們有很多機會將這些現金投入到業務中，以增加回報。隨著時間的推移，這種情況確實會加劇。

And then lastly of course, we have been in the market buying back our stock periodically over the past number of years, and we really just weigh out the different alternatives and try and strike a balance amongst the three of them. And I don't think it will change dramatically going forward.

最後，當然，過去幾年我們一直在市場上定期回購我們的股票，我們實際上只是權衡不同的選擇，並嘗試在這三種選擇之間取得平衡。我認為未來不會發生巨大變化。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Andrew Kuske, Credit Suisse.

安德魯·庫斯克，瑞士信貸。

I think, Bruce, you mentioned the capital pouring into BAM at the top of the house from all of your investments. How do you think about just deploying that capital among your existing businesses, and prospectively new businesses, and then really what hurdle levels are you thinking and contemplating on redeployment?

我想，Bruce，您提到了您所有投資中的資金湧入 BAM 中。您如何考慮在現有業務和未來的新業務中部署這些資本，然後您在重新部署時真正考慮和考慮的障礙水平是什麼？

So first I would say, we view the capital at BAM to really be for three purposes: One, to hold securities that we have in our listed affiliates. And secondly to support the affiliates, if they need capital to be able to do things that they otherwise wouldn't be able to do with our sponsorship. And having significant amounts of capital available to do that, to be able to support their transactions, is really a key differentiator that we have, versus many others.

首先我要說的是，我們認為 BAM 的資本實際上有三個目的：第一，持有我們在上市附屬公司中擁有的證券。其次，支持附屬機構，如果他們需要資金來完成他們在我們的讚助下無法完成的事情。與許多其他公司相比，擁有大量可用資金來支持他們的交易確實是我們的一個關鍵區別。

Sometimes you can't do a mathematical exercise. In fact the mathematical exercise says that you should get rid of the capital, but when somebody shows up with a transaction that can only be done because of the extra support that we give one of our entities, that's enormously valuable to our funds and to our listed entities.

有時你無法做數學練習。事實上，數學練習表明你應該擺脫資本，但是當有人出現一筆交易，而該交易只能通過我們給予我們實體之一的額外支持才能完成時，這對我們的資金和我們的資金來說是非常有價值的。上市實體。

So the first thing I would say is sometimes you will look at our balance sheet and it continuously looks like it is over-capitalized. And that is probably true, but there are many things we do to support entities that we use that capital for and encroach upon it.

因此，我要說的第一件事是，有時你會看看我們的資產負債表，它看起來一直處於資本過剩狀態。這可能是真的，但我們做了很多事情來支持我們使用這些資本並侵犯它的實體。

Second, we continue to look at adjunct businesses, and we do not plan on anything different than what we are doing, but we continue to look at adjunct businesses, and use that capital to start up new adjunct areas, and the only way to do that, that we have found, is to do it with our money first and then bring clients into it later, once we have established a track record. So we continue to put significant amounts of capital, and often if we wanted, we could run that capital down over time, if we were in a recessionary period or something, and we needed the capital for something else, but it shows up as financial assets largely in our books, and we continue to use capital on that.

其次，我們繼續關注輔助業務，我們沒有計劃做任何與我們正在做的事情不同的事情，但我們繼續關注輔助業務，並利用這些資金來啟動新的輔助領域，這是唯一的方法我們發現，首先用我們的錢來做這件事，一旦我們建立了良好的記錄，然後再吸引客戶加入進來。因此，我們繼續投入大量資本，通常，如果我們願意，我們可以隨著時間的推移減少這些資本，如果我們處於經濟衰退期或其他什麼情況，並且我們需要資本來做其他事情，但它表現為財務資產主要在我們的賬面上，我們繼續在這方面使用資本。

And lastly, I just say that over time, if we can't find a use for that cash, which we have not so far, but in that situation, but if we can't, then really there is a decision, do we return it to shareholders through the form of increased buybacks, or do we increase in the dividend? Or do we do other spin outs out of the Company? And we're open to all three.

最後，我只是說，隨著時間的推移，如果我們找不到這筆現金的用途（到目前為止我們還沒有找到用途），但在這種情況下，但如果我們找不到，那麼真的需要做出決定，我們可以嗎？通過增加回購的形式返還給股東，還是增加股息？或者我們是否從公司中進行其他分拆？我們對這三個人都持開放態度。

As you know, our goal is to, on a per-share basis, maximize the value over the longer term for the business and that is really it. We don't plan on being the biggest. All we are trying to do is make the most per-share value. So whatever make sense out of those three, we will use the capital for.

如您所知，我們的目標是在每股基礎上實現企業長期價值最大化，事實就是如此。我們不打算成為最大的。我們所做的就是實現每股價值最大化。因此，無論這三者有何意義，我們都會將資金用於用途。

Okay. That's helpful color and context. And then maybe just an extension, and then a follow-up question. How do you think about just the pace of deployments and how fast could the dry powder that exists now be effectively depleted and deployed, just with the situations that you see now? And I ask the question in part because we saw a real tipping point in your fundraising business, and then acceleration of the size of the funds and the speed that you are raising them. Should we expect a similar acceleration in deployment, and in the quantum of deployment?

好的。這是有用的顏色和背景。然後可能只是一個擴展，然後是一個後續問題。您如何看待部署的速度以及目前存在的干粉能夠以多快的速度有效消耗和部署，就您現在看到的情況而言？我問這個問題的部分原因是我們看到你們的籌款業務出現了真正的轉折點，然後資金規模和籌集資金的速度都在加速。我們是否應該期待類似的部署加速以及部署數量？

Yes. So on real estate, it is, our franchise is very broad, it is very big, and it can consume a lot of capital. And I would say that our real estate fund is virtually at 75% invested, so we are out to raise a new fund in a relatively short period of time, and that is merely because the franchise finds lots of things to do.

是的。所以在房地產方面，我們的特許經營範圍非常廣泛，規模非常大，並且可以消耗大量資本。我想說的是，我們的房地產基金實際上已完成 75% 的投資，因此我們打算在相對較短的時間內籌集新基金，這僅僅是因為特許經營權有很多事情要做。

In Infrastructure, we just raised a big fund, it's 35% invested. I think we will be able to put it to work, and largely that is because of our global footprint and our operating capabilities. And that might not be said if you didn't have those two things. But we have been able to find the ability to put money to work and in power as well.

在基礎設施方面，我們剛剛籌集了一大筆資金，投資了35%。我認為我們將能夠將其付諸實踐，這在很大程度上是因為我們的全球足跡和我們的運營能力。如果你沒有這兩件事，這可能就不會說。但我們已經找到了讓金錢發揮作用並掌權的能力。

So I think we will, we have not historically have an issue in finding transactions. We just go to the markets where value still exists, as opposed to ones that we feel are fairly valued. And we have continued to build the business to be able to do that, and I think it is -- the strategy is working in this environment.

所以我認為我們會的，我們在尋找交易方面歷來沒有遇到過問題。我們只是去那些仍然存在價值的市場，而不是那些我們認為估值合理的市場。我們繼續發展業務，以便能夠做到這一點，我認為這一戰略正在這種環境下發揮作用。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Ann Dai, KBW.

戴安，KBW。

This question is for Bruce. You spoke again today about finding better investment value abroad, given valuations in the US. So just understanding that we are very early days into this new administration, you had talked about drastically increasing Infrastructure spend through some potentially public-private partnerships. So I'm just curious whether the sense of this new administration has in any way changed your views on the opportunity set in the US?

這個問題是問布魯斯的。您今天再次談到，考慮到美國的估值，在海外尋找更好的投資價值。因此，我們剛剛進入新政府還處於早期階段，您曾談到通過一些潛在的公私合作夥伴關係大幅增加基礎設施支出。所以我只是好奇這屆新政府的意識是否以任何方式改變了您對美國機遇的看法？

So I will try to give you a concise answer. We have 40% of our total assets in the United States of America. We are a big proponent of the country, we believe in it longer term, we think it is a great place to invest. Other than Australia and Canada, put the three together, Australia, Canada, and the United States are three great places to invest in the world because they have phenomenal rule of law, et cetera, et cetera, everything you would want to have it in an investment place.

所以我會盡力給你一個簡潔的答案。我們總資產的 40% 在美國。我們是這個國家的大力支持者，我們相信它的長遠發展，我們認為它是一個投資的好地方。除了澳大利亞和加拿大之外，將這三個國家放在一起，澳大利亞、加拿大和美國是世界上三個投資的好地方，因為他們有驚人的法治等等，等等，你想要的一切一個投資場所。

The thing that United States has that those other two don't is that it is a very big place, so there is a lot of things to do. So we think the United States is great.

美國有其他兩個國家沒有的一點，那就是它是一個非常大的地方，所以有很多事情要做。所以我們認為美國是偉大的。

In Infrastructure, there hasn't been a lot to do in the past, because most infrastructure was owned by the government and funded by government. To the extent that there are opportunities to put large scale amounts of money to work in the United States, and we can make the numbers work, we would be very excited about putting money to work in the United States, and we hope that this administration will see their way to that, and we will be waiting to do it. So we're hopeful, and it is still early days.

在基礎設施方面，過去沒有太多可做的事情，因為大多數基礎設施都是政府所有並由政府資助。如果有機會投入大量資金在美國發揮作用，並且我們能夠使這些數字發揮作用，我們將非常高興投入資金在美國發揮作用，我們希望本屆政府將會看到他們實現這一目標的方法，我們將等待這樣做。所以我們充滿希望，而且現在還為時尚早。

Okay. Thanks so much.

好的。非常感謝。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to the presenters for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給主持人發表閉幕詞。

I think that is all for this call, so with that, we will end, and thank you for participating.

我想這就是這次電話會議的全部內容，所以我們就結束了，感謝您的參與。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與，祝您度過愉快的一天。