Braskem SA (BAK) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Braskem's Fourth Quarter and 2022 Results Conference Call. With us here today, we have Roberto Bischoff, Braskem's CEO; Pedro Freitas, Braskem's CFO; and Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence Director. This event is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

大家早上好，感謝大家的等待。歡迎來到 Braskem 的第四季度和 2022 年業績電話會議。今天在場的有 Braskem 的首席執行官 Roberto Bischoff； Braskem 的首席財務官 Pedro Freitas；和 Rosana Avolio，投資者關係戰略規劃和企業市場情報總監。正在記錄此事件。 （操作員說明）

This event is also being broadcast live via webcast and may be accessed through Braskem's website at www.braskem.com/ri, where the presentation is also available. Participants may view the slides in any order they wish. The audio will be available shortly after the event is concluded. Those following the presentation via the webcast may post their questions to Braskem via website. They will be answered by the IR team after the conference is finished.

該活動還通過網絡直播進行現場直播，可通過 Braskem 的網站 www.braskem.com/ri 訪問，該網站也提供演示文稿。參與者可以按他們希望的任何順序查看幻燈片。音頻將在活動結束後不久提供。那些通過網絡廣播關注演示的人可以通過網站將他們的問題發佈到 Braskem。他們將在會議結束後由 IR 團隊回答。

Before proceeding, let me mention that forward statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Braskem management and on information currently available to the company. They involve risks and uncertainties, because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand that macroeconomic conditions, industry conditions and other factors could also cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.

在繼續之前，讓我提一下前瞻性陳述是基於 Braskem 管理層的信念和假設以及公司目前可獲得的信息。它們涉及風險和不確定性，因為它們與未來事件有關，因此取決於可能發生或不發生的情況。投資者和分析師應該明白，宏觀經濟狀況、行業狀況和其他因素也可能導致結果與此類前瞻性陳述中表達的結果存在重大差異。

Now I'll turn the conference over to Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning and Corporate Market Intelligence Director. Mrs. Avolio, you may begin your presentation.

現在我將會議轉交給投資者關係、戰略規劃和企業市場情報總監 Rosana Avolio。 Avolio 女士，您可以開始您的演講了。

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in Braskem conference call. Today, we will present our results for the fourth quarter of 2022 and also for the year of 2022.

女士們先生們，早上好，感謝您參加 Braskem 電話會議。今天，我們將公佈 2022 年第四季度和 2022 年的業績。

Considering that, let's start with Slide #3, which shows Braskem's main highlights in the period. Starting with our consolidated highlights, I will start talking about our achievements in our biopolymer business. We had a historical record of Green PE sales volume in 2022 since the beginning of our operations in 2010. It should be noted that we are expanding our current green ethylene capacity of 200 kt by 30%. This project is ongoing with physical progress of 86% by December 2022. Regarding our recycling business, there was an increase of 144% in the sales of products with recycling content in 2022.

考慮到這一點，讓我們從幻燈片 #3 開始，它顯示了 Braskem 在這一時期的主要亮點。從我們的綜合亮點開始，我將開始談論我們在生物聚合物業務方面取得的成就。自 2010 年開始運營以來，我們在 2022 年創造了綠色 PE 銷量的歷史記錄。值得注意的是，我們正在將目前 200 kt 的綠色乙烯產能擴大 30%。該項目正在進行中，到 2022 年 12 月實際進度為 86%。關於我們的回收業務，2022 年含回收內容的產品銷售額增長了 144%。

In the fourth quarter of 2022, we made relevant advances related to the ethane import terminal in Mexico, with Braskem Idesa announcing the conclusion of the investment agreement signed with Advario. The construction started in July of 2022 and reached 25% of fiscal progress as of December 2022. I would like to remember that the terminal will have the capacity to our 80,000 barrels per day of ethane, which we allow Braskem Idesa to import all of its feedstock needs while enabling future expansion of PE production capacity in Mexico by around 20%. On the social front, Braskem supported 153 social initiatives that impacted over 610,000 people all over the world.

2022年四季度，我們在墨西哥乙烷進口碼頭取得相關進展，Braskem Idesa宣布與Advario簽署投資協議。該建設於 2022 年 7 月開始，截至 2022 年 12 月已達到財政進度的 25%。我想記住，該碼頭將有能力每天處理 80,000 桶乙烷，我們允許 Braskem Idesa 進口其所有的乙烷原料需求，同時使墨西哥未來的 PE 產能擴大 20% 左右。在社會方面，Braskem 支持了 153 項社會倡議，影響了全世界超過 610,000 人。

Moving to the financial highlights. During the fourth quarter of 2022, the industry remained impacted by the imbalance between global supply and demand, which resulted in compressed international spreads of chemical and petrochemical products. The dynamics of the sector will directly influenced by the startup of new capacity globally by the geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic uncertainties and the possibility of a (inaudible) slowdown in major economies. In this scenario, Braskem reported recurring EBITDA of $2.06 billion in 2022 and in addition to a cash generation of $654 million in the same period, reflecting in a cash flow yield of 18%. In 2022, Braskem continued to present solid credit metrics with copper leverage remaining under control and a strong liquidity position. Sufficiency to cover, that's coming due in the next 5 years and supporting our investment grade by the rating agencies.

轉到財務亮點。 2022年第四季度，該行業仍受到全球供需失衡的影響，導致化工和石化產品國際價差收窄。該行業的動態將直接受到地緣政治緊張局勢、宏觀經濟不確定性和主要經濟體（聽不清）放緩的可能性導致的全球新產能啟動的影響。在這種情況下，Braskem 報告稱，2022 年的經常性 EBITDA 為 20.6 億美元，同期產生的現金為 6.54 億美元，現金流收益率為 18%。 2022 年，Braskem 繼續呈現穩健的信用指標，銅槓桿率仍處於可控範圍內，流動性狀況良好。足以覆蓋，這將在未來 5 年內到期，並支持評級機構的投資等級。

Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2022, recurring EBITDA was around $2.1 billion, down 64% from the previous year and explained mainly by the lower spreads in the international market, lower sales volume of main chemicals in the Brazil segment, PP in the U.S. and Europe and the accounting effect of inventory net realizable in the net amount of $84 million.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。 2022 年經常性 EBITDA 約為 21 億美元，較上年下降 64%，主要原因是國際市場價差較低，巴西業務主要化學品銷量下降，美國和歐洲 PP 以及會計影響可變現存貨淨額為 8400 萬美元。

Let's move to the next slide, which covers our highlights in Brazil segment. In 2022, the petrochemical crackers in Brazil operated at an average utilization rate of 78%, 3 percentage points lower than the previous year, mainly explained by the adequacy of production due to lower spreads in the international market, but the scheduled maintenance shutdown at the petrochemical complex in Rio Grande do Sul and PVC plant in Alagoas. In the year, resin sales volume in the Brazilian market remained stable compared to 2021 due to our commercial efforts to prioritize the Brazilian market supply. The export volumes in the scenario also remained stable. In this context, recurring EBITDA from Brazil in 2022 was $1.211 billion.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，其中介紹了我們在巴西部分的亮點。 2022年巴西石化裂解裝置平均開工率為78%，較上年下降3個百分點，主要是國際市場價差較低導致產能充足，但按計劃檢修停產南里奧格蘭德州的石化廠和阿拉戈斯州的 PVC 廠。由於我們的商業努力優先考慮巴西市場供應，因此與 2021 年相比，今年巴西市場的樹脂銷量保持穩定。情景中的出口量也保持穩定。在此背景下，巴西 2022 年的經常性 EBITDA 為 12.11 億美元。

Let's move to the next slide. First, it's important to mention that the green polyethylene is a biopolymer produced from Brazilian sugarcane ethanol. It is a differentiated product besides being renewable. It has a negative carbon footprint, the same properties and applications (inaudible) polyethylene with 100% of recyclability. Braskem has more than 12 years of establishing this operation and is a pioneer and world leader in Green PE production. Considering that in 2022, the utilization rate of green ethylene decreased compared to 2021 due to scheduled shutdowns at the polyethylene units in (inaudible). However, is still historically high levels. Braskem's Green PE reached a record sales volume. These results consider the whole history of operation, which started back in 2010.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片。首先，值得一提的是，綠色聚乙烯是由巴西甘蔗乙醇生產的生物聚合物。除了可再生之外，它還是一種差異化產品。它具有負碳足跡，具有相同的性能和應用（聽不清）聚乙烯，具有 100% 的可回收性。 Braskem 擁有超過 12 年的經營經驗，是綠色 PE 生產的先驅和世界領導者。考慮到 2022 年，由於（聽不清）聚乙烯裝置的計劃停產，綠色乙烯的利用率與 2021 年相比有所下降。不過，仍處於歷史高位。 Braskem 的 Green PE 銷量創歷史新高。這些結果考慮了從 2010 年開始的整個運營歷史。

Moving to the next slide, which shows the progress made on action fronts were related to geological event in Alagoas. The chart on the left shows total provision for the geological event in Alagoas of BRL 13.1 billion, of which BRL 6.9 billion was already been disbursed. The chart in the middle shows the outstanding amount of the provision, which ended the fourth quarter of 2022 at around BRL 6.6 billion, with 64% of the total amount provision booked under the short term and 36% under the long term. It is important to point out that Braskem cannot eliminate future developments related to the matter or its associated expenses, and the costs to be incurred by Braskem may differ from its estimate or accrued amounts.

轉到下一張幻燈片，該幻燈片顯示行動前沿取得的進展與阿拉戈斯的地質事件有關。左圖顯示為阿拉戈斯地質事件提供的總撥款為 131 億雷亞爾，其中 69 億雷亞爾已經支付。中間的圖表顯示了準備金的未償金額，截至 2022 年第四季度末約為 66 億雷亞爾，其中短期計提總額的 64% 和長期計提總額的 36%。需要指出的是，Braskem 無法消除與該事項相關的未來發展或其相關費用，Braskem 將發生的費用可能與其估計或應計金額不同。

Moving on, but it's still on the geologic event, the next slide shows the progress made on action fronts. First, regarding relocation and compensation, Braskem continues to advance with the process of relocation, financial compensation families, locating neighborhood in risk areas in (inaudible). The number of proposals for financial compensation to be meted reached 18,862 in February 2023, 98% of the total estimated. We would like to highlight that the proposal acceptance rate remained high at 99.6%.

繼續前進，但它仍在地質事件上，下一張幻燈片顯示了在行動方面取得的進展。首先，關於搬遷和補償，Braskem 繼續推進搬遷、經濟補償家庭、在（聽不清）風險地區安置社區的過程。 2023 年 2 月財政補償提案數量達到 18,862 件，佔預計總數的 98%。我們要強調的是，提案接受率保持在 99.6% 的高位。

On the Closing & Monitoring of Wells action front is off end of February of 2023. Of the 35-well cavities, 9 are in the same backfilling group with 1 already being concluded. Meanwhile, actions on the social urban development are concentrated in the urban mobility, social compensation and actions in relocation areas. On this working front, there were several important [advances] in the year. All 11 urban mobility actions are in progress, 8 of which already have executive projects concluded and 3 of them are already in the construction phase, conclusion of demolition process at [Mutange] and progress in other stabilization activities.

在關閉和監測井行動方面，將於 2023 年 2 月底結束。在 35 個井腔中，9 個位於同一回填組中，其中 1 個已經完成。同時，對社會城市發展的行動集中在城市流動、社會補償和易地搬遷行動等方面。在這方面的工作方面，這一年有幾項重要的[進展]。所有 11 項城市交通行動都在進行中，其中 8 項已經完成執行項目，其中 3 項已經進入建設階段，[Mutange] 的拆除過程已經完成，其他穩定活動也取得了進展。

Let's move to the next slide, please. This slide presents the highlights of our operations in the United States and Europe. In 2022, the PP plants in the United States operated at a capacity utilization rate of 7% and 9%, down 7 percentage points from 2021 with the reduction explained by the adjustment of the production volume due to weaker demand in the region and scheduled maintenance shutdowns. In Europe, the capacity utilization rate decreased 10 percentage points from the prior year, reflecting the lower demand, weak economic performance in the region and high inventory levels in the converted chain. In terms of sales performance, the U.S. registered sales volume in the year of 1,589,000 tons, 4% lower than 2021. However, our commercial efforts help with the sales decrease being lower than the reduction in demand in the U.S. The segment's recurring EBITDA in 2022 was $609 million.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。這張幻燈片展示了我們在美國和歐洲的業務亮點。 2022年美國PP裝置開工產能利用率分別為7%和9%，較2021年下降7個百分點，下降原因是該地區需求疲軟調整產量，定期檢修停工。在歐洲，產能利用率較上年下降 10 個百分點，反映出需求下降、該地區經濟表現疲軟以及加工鏈庫存水平高。在銷售業績方面，美國全年登記銷量為 1,589,000 噸，比 2021 年下降 4%。但是，我們的商業努力幫助銷售額下降低於美國需求下降。該部門 2022 年的經常性 EBITDA為 6.09 億美元。

Moving to the next slide, please. The Mexico unit operated at capacity utilization rate of 73% in 2022. 7 percentage points higher than in 2021, reflecting the increased retaining supply by PEMEX and higher training ports under the Fast Track solution. Sales volume increased by 20% compared to the last year, reflecting a higher utilization rate at Braskem Idesa. The segment recurring EBITDA in 2022 was $212 million.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。墨西哥裝置在 2022 年的產能利用率為 73%。比 2021 年高出 7 個百分點，反映了 PEMEX 增加的保留供應和 Fast Track 解決方案下更高的培訓港口。與去年相比，銷量增長了 20%，反映出 Braskem Idesa 的利用率更高。該部門 2022 年的經常性 EBITDA 為 2.12 億美元。

Moving on to the next slide. Braskem is a company that has consistently presented positive operating cash flow even in downturns in the petrochemical cycle, and our decision-making process aims to maximize the present value of our future cash generation. Considering that, cash generation in 2022 was around BRL 3.3 billion. Excluding payments related to the geological event in Alagoas, the company delivered a recurring cash flow of around BRL 6 billion, result in a cash flow yield of 18% and a recurring cash flow yield of 33%, respectively.

轉到下一張幻燈片。 Braskem 是一家即使在石化週期低迷時期也始終呈現正經營現金流的公司，我們的決策過程旨在最大限度地提高我們未來現金產生的現值。考慮到這一點，2022 年的現金產生量約為 33 億雷亞爾。不包括與阿拉戈斯地質事件相關的付款，該公司交付了約 60 億雷亞爾的經常性現金流，導致現金流收益率分別為 18% 和 33%。

Let's move to the next slide. Braskem ended the year maintaining a very low debt maturity profile and strong liquidity position with the majority of its debt coming due in 2030 onwards. The average debt term was around 13 years, and the current liquidity position covers all that's coming due in the next 60 months, not considering the international revolving credit facility of $1 billion available until 2026. In this scenario, Braskem continues to present solid credit metrics with copper leverage at 2.42x by the end of 2022. It is important to mention that we keep acting on conservative principles such as net debt in U.S. dollars as ahead to match our exposure of the business to international prices, transparent dividend policy and concentration of funding in the capital markets.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片。 Braskem 在年底時保持了非常低的債務到期狀況和強勁的流動性狀況，其大部分債務將於 2030 年以後到期。平均債務期限約為 13 年，當前的流動性狀況涵蓋了未來 60 個月內到期的所有債務，不考慮到 2026 年可用的 10 億美元國際循環信貸額度。在這種情況下，Braskem 繼續提供可靠的信貸指標到 2022 年底，銅的槓桿率為 2.42 倍。值得一提的是，我們繼續按照保守的原則行事，例如未來以美元計價的淨債務，以匹配我們對國際價格的業務敞口、透明的股息政策和集中度在資本市場融資。

I would like to highlight that on February 2023, Braskem concluded the issuance of a bond in the international market in the amount of $1 billion with a maturity in 2033. Also in February, we made a total repayment of our bond due in 2024. Finally, regarding rating agencies. In the last few months, S&P [feature] maintain our investment-grade rating with a stable outlook.

我想強調的是，2023 年 2 月，Braskem 完成了在國際市場發行 2033 年到期的 10 億美元債券。同樣在 2 月，我們全額償還了 2024 年到期的債券。最後, 關於評級機構。在過去的幾個月裡，標準普爾 [feature] 維持我們的投資級評級，前景穩定。

Let's move to the next slide, please. In 2022, Braskem revised its strategy to support the investment prioritization and capital allocation for 2030, considering our long-term commitment in sustainable development, market trends and demand for the coming years. Braskem's strategy consists of its foundation, strategic pillars and growth revenues. The foundation of our strategy reflects the value we practice consistently, and there are fundamental to guarantee the achievement for ambitions in the different pillars and growth revenues based on safety, people and governance. Our strategic pillar reinforce our long-term ambitions in productivity and competitiveness, sustainability, growth and diversification and innovation.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。 2022 年，Braskem 修訂了戰略，以支持 2030 年的投資優先次序和資本配置，考慮到我們對可持續發展的長期承諾、市場趨勢和未來幾年的需求。 Braskem 的戰略包括其基礎、戰略支柱和增長收入。我們戰略的基礎反映了我們一貫踐行的價值觀，並且有基礎來保證實現不同支柱的雄心壯志和基於安全、人員和治理的增長收入。我們的戰略支柱強化了我們在生產力和競爭力、可持續性、增長、多元化和創新方面的長期雄心。

Our ambition in productivity and competitiveness is drive our assets towards the first quartile of the petrochemical industry cash cost curve, focusing on decarbonization initiatives and selective investments. Considering that, we will focus on operational efficiency and excellence, commercial logistics effectiveness, seeking cost leadership and differentiation through our relationships with clients and partners, while focusing on the transitioning to a more decarbonized industry. In sustainability, our ambition is to be a reference in sustainable development in the global chemical and plastic sector. And as part of our strategy, we made commitments for our next phase of transformation that creates value in the transition to a carbon-neutral circular economy.

我們在生產力和競爭力方面的雄心壯志是將我們的資產推向石化行業現金成本曲線的第一個四分位，重點是脫碳計劃和選擇性投資。考慮到這一點，我們將專注於運營效率和卓越性、商業物流效率、通過我們與客戶和合作夥伴的關係尋求成本領先和差異化，同時專注於向更加脫碳的行業過渡。在可持續發展方面，我們的目標是成為全球化學和塑料行業可持續發展的標杆。作為我們戰略的一部分，我們承諾下一階段的轉型將在向碳中和循環經濟轉型的過程中創造價值。

In growth and diversification, since the beginning, Braskem's strategy was strongly based on the diversification of raw materials and geographies. Looking towards a balance of raw materials profile, reducing our exposure and growing our capacity globally. Now our ambitions incorporate more focused on increasing our bio base and circular feedstock and products, evolving with a portfolio expansion according to business strategy to support client needs and ensuring our adaptability to consolidate a leadership position and remain competitive. To do all of this, we must improve our efforts innovation.

在增長和多元化方面，從一開始，Braskem 的戰略就強烈地基於原材料和地域的多元化。尋求原材料配置的平衡，減少我們的風險並提高我們在全球的產能。現在，我們的雄心壯志更加側重於增加我們的生物基礎和循環原料及產品，根據業務戰略擴展產品組合以支持客戶需求並確保我們的適應能力以鞏固領導地位並保持競爭力。要做到這一切，我們必須提高我們的創新力度。

So our ambition in this pillar is deliver high-value, sustainable solutions to chemical and price innovation. Braskem tend to deliver a tangible, sustainable solution through the development of this [drug] technologies, processes, business models and partnerships, guaranteeing the business future.

因此，我們在這一支柱中的目標是為化學和價格創新提供高價值、可持續的解決方案。 Braskem 傾向於通過開發這種[藥物]技術、流程、商業模式和合作夥伴關係來提供有形的、可持續的解決方案，從而保證商業的未來。

Moving to our gross avenues. We define our pathway to grow based on 3 avenues. In traditional business, we intend to grow our current business through selective investments including productiveness and competitiveness improvements as well as continue to implement the decarbonization of our current assets. These measures together will enable the delivery of our goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 15% by 2030. In the bio-based avenue, our ambition is to grow in bio-based resins and chemicals, in addition to expanding the use of renewable raw materials with the objective of achieving our goal of expanding the production capacity of green products to 1 million ton by 2030.

轉向我們粗俗的途徑。我們根據 3 條途徑定義我們的增長途徑。在傳統業務方面，我們打算通過選擇性投資（包括提高生產力和競爭力）來發展我們當前的業務，並繼續實施我們現有資產的脫碳。這些措施將共同實現我們的目標，即到 2050 年實現碳中和，到 2030 年將範圍 1 和範圍 2 的排放量減少 15%。在生物基領域，我們的目標是發展生物基樹脂和化學品，在除了擴大可再生原材料的使用，以實現我們到2030年將綠色產品產能擴大到100萬噸的目標。

Lastly, in recycling, we intend to grow in circular products through mechanical recycling and expanding use of circular feedstocks through advanced recycling, aiming to achieve our public commitment of grow the portfolio of products with recycling content to reach by 300 kt by 2025 and 1 million tons by 2030. So finally, based on our pillars, avenues and foundations, we aim to continue to balance our capital allocation, returning value to shareholders while we invest in our business and its growth opportunities, generating positive impact for our stakeholders.

最後，在回收方面，我們打算通過機械回收來增加循環產品，並通過先進的回收擴大循環原料的使用，以實現我們的公開承諾，即到 2025 年將具有回收成分的產品組合增加到 300 噸和 100 萬噸到 2030 年。因此，最後，基於我們的支柱、途徑和基礎，我們的目標是繼續平衡我們的資本配置，在我們投資於我們的業務及其增長機會的同時為股東回報價值，為我們的利益相關者產生積極影響。

Moving to the next slide. In the first grow avenue traditional business, Braskem will grow its business through selective high value-added investments with improvements in competitiveness and focus on current assets decarbonization. In 2022, we already delivered important achievements on this avenue. The first one is the Ethane Import Terminal construction in Mexico. The Terminal Química Puerto México is a joint venture between Braskem and Advario, which each company holding an interest of 50%.

移動到下一張幻燈片。在傳統業務的第一條增長途徑中，Braskem 將通過選擇性的高附加值投資來發展業務，提高競爭力，並專注於流動資產脫碳。 2022年，我們已經在這條大道上取得了重要成果。第一個是墨西哥的乙烷進口碼頭建設。 Terminal Quémica Puerto México 是 Braskem 和 Advario 的合資企業，每家公司持有 50% 的權益。

The terminal feedstock supply capacity will be around 80,000 barrels per day of ethane, which represents around 120% of the current feedstock needs for Braskem Idesa. The project's CapEx is estimated to be around $450 million with the term round startup expected for the second half of 2024. In the end of December of 2022, the project reached a fiscal progress of 26%. In the industrial decarbonization program, we already have prioritized initiatives that will allow Braskem to achieve our emission reduction commitment with positive NPV. The program is part of our governance strategy for a commitment to fight climate change.

終端原料供應能力約為每天 80,000 桶乙烷，約佔 Braskem Idesa 當前原料需求的 120%。該項目的資本支出估計約為 4.5 億美元，預計將於 2024 年下半年啟動。到 2022 年 12 月底，該項目的財務進度達到 26%。在工業脫碳計劃中，我們已經優先考慮了一些舉措，這些舉措將使 Braskem 能夠以正 NPV 實現我們的減排承諾。該計劃是我們致力於應對氣候變化的治理戰略的一部分。

Lastly, Transform for Value is our global efficiency program implemented to accelerate improvement in different areas of the company as well as redesign our process structure, generating value for the company through process optimization. The program ended 2022 on pace of capture around $352 million per year in initiatives that have reached more advanced stages of maturity.

最後，Transform for Value 是我們實施的全球效率計劃，旨在加速公司不同領域的改進，並重新設計我們的流程結構，通過流程優化為公司創造價值。該計劃在 2022 年結束時每年為已達到更高級成熟階段的計劃籌集約 3.52 億美元。

Let's move to the next slide, which shows Braskem bio-based growth revenue. In this growth avenue, we would like to highlight our main initiatives that will support us to achieve our commitment to reach a production of 1 million tons of green products by 2030. These initiatives are debottlenecking project of our green ethylene planning capacity in Triunfo, Rio Grande do Sul. This project is ongoing and will result in an additional production capacity of 600 kt per year. We will continue to move forward with feasibility studies for the construction of a green ethylene plant in Thailand, together with SCG Chemicals, with the potential to even double our current green PE capacity.

讓我們轉到下一張幻燈片，它顯示了 Braskem 基於生物的增長收入。在這條增長道路上，我們想強調我們的主要舉措，這些舉措將支持我們實現到 2030 年實現 100 萬噸綠色產品生產的承諾。這些舉措是我們在里約熱內盧 Triunfo 的綠色乙烯規劃能力的去瓶頸項目南格蘭德。該項目正在進行中，每年將產生 600 kt 的額外生產能力。我們將繼續推進與 SCG Chemicals 一起在泰國建設綠色乙烯工廠的可行性研究，有可能將我們目前的綠色 PE 產能提高一倍。

Let's go to the next slide, please. Regarding our sustainable product portfolio, we have 40 grades of PCR for different applications. In 2022, our sales of products with recycling content reached 54 kt, an increase of 144% from 2021. On the technology development front, Braskem also signed several partnerships agreements for the development of new technology with a high potential for plastic waste recovery. Regarding the environmental and education and consumer engagement, we accounted for 33,500 tons of recovery price in the year, an increase of 156% compared to 2021. Lastly, on the circular design of applications front, we inaugurated Cazoolo, the first packaging development center for the circular economy in Brazil.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。關於我們的可持續產品組合，我們有 40 個等級的 PCR 用於不同的應用。 2022 年，我們含有回收成分的產品銷量達到 54 kt，比 2021 年增長了 144%。在技術開發方面，Braskem 還簽署了多項合作協議，以開發塑料廢物回收潛力巨大的新技術。在環境和教育以及消費者參與方面，我們全年回收了 33,500 噸回收價格，比 2021 年增長了 156%。最後，在應用方面的循環設計方面，我們開設了第一個包裝開發中心 Cazoolo巴西的循環經濟。

Let's go to the next slide, please. In the fourth quarter of 2022, the petrochemical spread reached its bottom, impacted mainly by the dynamics between global supply and demand. for the coming years, there is a market expectation of a recovery path for the petrochemical cycle as a consequence of demand growth being higher than the expected supply additions globally, as you can see in the chart.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。 2022年四季度，石化價差觸底，主要受全球供需動態影響。正如您在圖表中看到的那樣，由於需求增長高於全球預期的供應增長，因此市場預計未來幾年石化週期將走上復甦之路。

Moving to the next slide. Considering the moment of the cycle, Braskem has established several initiatives to improve EBITDA and cash flow generation. Regarding our EBITDA initiatives, we would like to highlight the optimization of global trade management, the global optimization of fixed and variable costs with cost-conscious targets for all team members of the company and also the continuous progress of our Transform For Value program. These initiatives together have the potential to increase EBITDA by around $350 million in 2023.

移動到下一張幻燈片。考慮到週期的時刻，Braskem 制定了多項舉措來改善 EBITDA 和現金流量的產生。關於我們的 EBITDA 舉措，我們想強調全球貿易管理的優化、固定成本和可變成本的全球優化以及公司所有團隊成員具有成本意識的目標，以及我們 Transform For Value 計劃的持續進展。這些舉措加起來有可能在 2023 年將 EBITDA 增加約 3.5 億美元。

Among the initiatives impacting cash flow generation, we would like to highlight the working capital optimization across the integrated production planning, the prioritization in the investment process for corporate CapEx without impacting the maintenance CapEx and the reliability of our assets and the generation of cash through nonrecurring demonetization throughout the year. Summing all these initiatives, we have a potential for additional cash generation of $500 million to $600 million in 2023.

在影響現金流產生的舉措中，我們要強調綜合生產計劃中的營運資本優化、在不影響維護資本支出的情況下在企業資本支出投資過程中的優先次序以及我們資產的可靠性和通過非經常性現金產生全年取消貨幣化。總結所有這些舉措，我們有可能在 2023 年產生 5 億至 6 億美元的額外現金。

Moving to the next slide. For Brazil segment, the expectation for first quarter of 2023 is for an increase in ethylene production. On the commercial front, the expectations for resins volume to increase and for spreads, external consulting firms are expecting highest price for resins and lower spreads for our main chemical products. In the United States, capacity utilization rate should increase compared to the fourth quarter 2022. However, the sales volume should keep stable and the U.S. PP minus propylene spreads should decrease. Lastly, in Mexico, the expectations for maintaining [PE] production with higher PE sales volume and higher spreads in the region.

移動到下一張幻燈片。對於巴西部分，預計 2023 年第一季度乙烯產量將增加。在商業方面，對樹脂產量和價差的預期增加，外部諮詢公司預計樹脂價格最高，我們主要化學產品的價差較低。在美國，與2022年第四季度相比，產能利用率應有所增加。但是，銷量應保持穩定，美國PP減丙烯價差應會下降。最後，在墨西哥，隨著 PE 銷量的增加和該地區價差的增加，人們希望維持 [PE] 生產。

Let's go to the next slide, please. On this slide, I'll go over our 5 priorities for this year, taking into consideration our strategic pillars. The first one is optimize operations of assets and focus on cost discipline to capture synergies across the regions. The second one is to implement initiatives on financial preservation, focused on creating value for our shareholders. The third one is to prioritize investments for eliminating plastic waste and combining climate change and focus on initiatives related to social responsibility and human rights. Regarding innovation, we want to expand in strategic innovation and digital transformation. And finally, advance on all our action front related to the geological event in Alagoas, fulfilling the commitments establishing agreements.

請轉到下一張幻燈片。在這張幻燈片上，我將回顧我們今年的 5 個優先事項，同時考慮到我們的戰略支柱。第一個是優化資產運營並專注於成本控制以獲取跨地區的協同效應。二是實施保本舉措，著力為股東創造價值。三是優先投資消除塑料垃圾和結合氣候變化，重點關注與社會責任和人權相關的舉措。在創新方面，我們要在戰略創新和數字化轉型方面做大做強。最後，推進我們與阿拉戈斯地質事件相關的所有行動，履行建立協議的承諾。

Finally, we would like to reinforce that safe operations are and always will be the focus on Braskem's operation as a permanent and nonnegotiable value of our strategy. So that concludes today's presentation of Braskem results for the fourth quarter of 2022. Thank you all for your attention, and let's go to the question-and-answer session.

最後，我們想強調的是，安全運營是並將永遠是 Braskem 運營的重點，作為我們戰略的永久和不可談判的價值。今天對 Braskem 2022 年第四季度業績的介紹到此結束。感謝大家的關注，讓我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes Vicente Falanga with Bradesco BBI.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Bradesco BBI 的 Vicente Falanga。

I have a couple of questions here. First of all, would love to hear your most updated views on the outlook for PE, PP spreads. We here have an expectation of improvements more towards the end of the year. I wanted to know if Braskem shares this view. And then second, we have been hearing from the new CEO of (inaudible) that he wants to see Brazil free of chemical imports. At the same time, there has been a big push from the government to increase the supply of natural gas. I wanted to know if Braskem could be interested in resuming large petrochemical complexes here in Brazil, like the idea of doing (inaudible) potentially fed by my (inaudible) gas.

我有幾個問題。首先，很想听聽您對 PE、PP 利差前景的最新看法。我們期望到年底會有更多改進。我想知道 Braskem 是否同意這個觀點。其次，我們從（聽不清）的新任首席執行官那裡聽說，他希望看到巴西不再進口化學品。與此同時，政府大力推動增加天然氣供應。我想知道 Braskem 是否有興趣在巴西恢復大型石化聯合體，比如做（聽不清）可能由我的（聽不清）氣體提供的想法。

Starting with the spreads. Our view is similar to what you described. It's a recovery year in terms of PE, PP spreads over time over the year. So we don't see and we don't expect any huge shifts in the spreads from quarter-to-quarter. But overall, through the year, a recovery to levels that, in our view, are going to be around mid-cycle by the end of the year. So that's our view for spreads, both for PE and PP. We have been seeing some positive news coming from China with the end of the lockdowns. We see economists and forecasters changing upwards their view on China growth.

從點差開始。我們的觀點與你所描述的相似。就 PE 而言，這是複甦的一年，PP 在這一年中隨著時間的推移而蔓延。因此，我們沒有看到，也預計季度之間的利差不會發生任何巨大變化。但總的來說，在我們看來，今年年底將恢復到週期中期左右的水平。這就是我們對 PE 和 PP 價差的看法。隨著封鎖的結束，我們一直看到來自中國的一些積極消息。我們看到經濟學家和預測者改變了他們對中國增長的看法。

So all of that points to this recovery in spreads through the year. But in any scenario, we have been looking at the situation very carefully and managing the company in a way that is responsive to that situation. So we are cutting costs.

因此，所有這些都表明全年利差有所回升。但在任何情況下，我們都非常仔細地審視情況，並以對這種情況做出反應的方式管理公司。所以我們正在削減成本。

We are -- we have reduced the CapEx outlook for the year. We are looking at working capital management and also reinforcing the Transform For Value program to find other opportunities to create value in the short term. It's also important to -- that we see this still kind of a more challenging scenario through this year. But when you look at '24, '25, the outlook is more positive because then, we don't see enough capacity coming to the market, the capacity growth outlook as was highlighted by Rosana in the presentation is actually below demand growth. And if China recovers faster, that could be even more positive going into '24, '25.

我們 - 我們已經降低了今年的資本支出前景。我們正在研究營運資本管理，並加強 Transform For Value 計劃，以尋找其他機會在短期內創造價值。同樣重要的是 - 我們看到今年仍然是一種更具挑戰性的情況。但是，當您查看 24、25 年時，前景更加樂觀，因為那時我們沒有看到足夠的產能進入市場，Rosana 在演講中強調的產能增長前景實際上低於需求增長。如果中國恢復得更快，那麼進入 24、25 年可能會更加積極。

So we see this we have this view that the scenario is going to be more positive in kind of the midterm looking at upstream in the cycle in '24, '25 and '26. Regarding pet-chem investments in Brazil, of course, we would be interested if there is more natural gas liquids available if there are -- there is more ethane and propane available in Brazil coming from pre-salt, we would be interested in having access to those volumes. The most competitive investment in Brazil that anybody can make in the industry today is in expanding our cracker and site in Rio de Janeiro. So that would be, I would say, the best alternative for the country on where to allocate that additional feedstock if it comes to the shore.

因此，我們看到這一點，我們認為在 24 年、25 年和 26 年周期的上游中期來看，情況將更加積極。關於巴西的石油化工投資，當然，如果有更多可用的天然氣液體，我們會很感興趣——巴西有更多來自鹽下的乙烷和丙烷，我們有興趣獲得那些卷。當今業內任何人都可以在巴西進行的最具競爭力的投資是擴大我們在里約熱內盧的裂解裝置和工廠。因此，我想說，如果額外的原料運到岸上，這將是該國在何處分配的最佳選擇。

So we keep following and tracking pre-salt activity closely. We have a constant dialogue with players in the industry to understand and be positioned whenever the availability of feedstock is concrete to be able to step in. We don't see that happening in the very short term, let's say, this year, next year, but we are tracking and kind of being very close to the industry to access that opportunity whenever it comes to market.

因此，我們一直密切關注和跟踪鹽前活動。我們與業內人士不斷對話，了解並定位具體的原料供應情況，以便能夠介入。我們認為短期內不會發生這種情況，比方說，今年、明年，但我們正在跟踪並且有點接近行業，以便在市場上獲得這個機會。

Our next question comes from Gabriel Barra with Citibank.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的加布里埃爾巴拉。

I have 2 here. 3, if I may. The first one regarding the Transform For Value program, I think that's -- it's really great, right, and interesting. I take a look in terms of the amount that you can generate for the company. But some points here that I want to understand a little bit better. You mentioned in the conference call, the impact of $353 million in 2022. And the earnings, you mentioned a future impact of $387 million to be captured in the following years. So my point is how should we compare this number in this impact from last year 2020. What's the margin effect when compared with 2021? What's the net amount for 2022 in order to understand the impact in the year?

我這裡有2個。 3、如果可以的話。第一個關於 Transform For Value 計劃，我認為它真的很棒、正確且有趣。我看一下您可以為公司產生的金額。但是這裡有一些我想更好地理解的要點。你在電話會議中提到，2022 年的影響為 3.53 億美元。而收益，你提到未來幾年將獲得 3.87 億美元的影響。所以我的觀點是，我們應該如何比較這個數字與去年 2020 年的影響。與 2021 年相比，邊際效應是多少？為了了解當年的影響，2022 年的淨額是多少？

And the second is what's the timeline for this $387 million that we are going to capture in the following years or the timeline for that impact here for 2023? That's the first question. The second one, it's regarding the import taxes, Recently, you have seen some changes, right? I would like to understand better here, what's the impact for the company 2023, the amount that the company could, let's say, capture it from this increase in Port Texas. And the third one, back to spreads, a quick follow-up here.

第二個是我們將在接下來的幾年中獲得的這 3.87 億美元的時間表或 2023 年影響的時間表是什麼？這是第一個問題。第二個，關於進口稅，最近，你看到了一些變化，對吧？我想在這裡更好地了解，2023 年對公司的影響是什麼，比方說，公司可以從德克薩斯港的增長中獲得多少。第三個，回到利差，在這裡快速跟進。

The [SPP] was, let's say, a safe haven for the company, right, with an import market, et cetera, with good margins. And as you mentioned in the conference call, we are expecting, let's say, the market changes to our export market. My point is, how should we think about this in the next years? We believe that U.S. would become again an important market. And this 2024 that you mentioned here that you change this again with, let's say, a lower capacity. What's pricing here in terms of recession, demand, et cetera? I want to understand the dynamic here that we are seeing for U.S. So that's my questions.

[SPP] 可以說是公司的避風港，對吧，有進口市場等等，利潤率很高。正如您在電話會議中提到的那樣，我們預計市場會向我們的出口市場轉變。我的觀點是，我們在未來幾年應該如何考慮這個問題？我們相信美國將再次成為一個重要的市場。你在這裡提到的這個 2024，你再次改變它，比方說，較低的容量。就經濟衰退、需求等方面而言，這裡的價格是多少？我想了解我們在這裡看到的美國的動態，所以這就是我的問題。

Gabriel, thank you for your questions. So on Transform For Value, it's important to understand that the program -- the pace of capture of the program, it's -- sometimes we are talking about annualized captures, sometimes we're talking about what is actually captured in that year, right? So when we say that the program capture last year was $283 million, we're talking about the cumulative capture in last year compared to a base of 2020. That includes both initiatives that have, I would say, an increase in EBITDA compared to the previous year, but also initiatives that are geared towards avoiding losses that would lead to losses in EBITDA, right? So it's a mix of both.

加布里埃爾，謝謝你的問題。因此，在 Transform For Value 上，重要的是要了解該計劃 - 計劃的捕獲速度 - 有時我們談論的是年度捕獲，有時我們談論的是當年實際捕獲的內容，對嗎？因此，當我們說去年的計劃收入為 2.83 億美元時，我們指的是去年與 2020 年基數相比的累計收入。這包括兩項舉措，我想說，與去年，還有旨在避免導致 EBITDA 損失的損失的舉措，對嗎？所以這是兩者的混合。

So when we are talking about the program, we had digital technology projects, we had continuous improvement projects and also other initiatives that are related to energy efficiency, and I would say, positive NPV competitiveness and productivity projects. So when we -- Rosana presented also in the slides that we see an impact -- a positive impact of Transfer For Value of about $150 million this year, it's also important to understand that up till now, we have been disclosing the numbers comparing to 2020. But the $150 million that Rosana highlighted is a comparison with 2022.

因此，當我們談論該計劃時，我們有數字技術項目、持續改進項目以及與能源效率相關的其他舉措，我想說的是積極的 NPV 競爭力和生產力項目。因此，當我們 - Rosana 在幻燈片中也展示了我們看到的影響 - 今年 Transfer For Value 的積極影響約為 1.5 億美元，同樣重要的是要了解，到目前為止，我們一直在披露與2020 年。但 Rosana 強調的 1.5 億美元是與 2022 年的比較。

So we're changing the base to make it easier for you guys to understand, what is the value of the program on roaming basis? So for this year, given that we have lower spreads, for example, an additional ton of product that the project yields is worth a fewer dollars, right? So that's why we see a reduction in the yearly impact, it relates to the spread reduction as well. And -- so again, to reinforce this year in 2023 compared to 2022, we expect a positive impact of Transform For Value of about $150 million. Okay. Regarding the second question about the import tariff and impact, I will recall that last year, some analysts and market experts were engaging in assessing that the impact of reduction of the tariffs over 1 year, which was the original timeframe was about $150 million of lower EBITDA for Braskem, which would be split between '22 and '23, right?

所以我們正在改變基礎，讓你們更容易理解，這個程序在漫遊基礎上的價值是什麼？因此，對於今年，假設我們的價差較低，例如，該項目產生的額外一噸產品價值更少的美元，對嗎？所以這就是我們看到年度影響減少的原因，這也與利差減少有關。而且 - 所以再次強調，與 2022 年相比，今年 2023 年，我們預計 Transform For Value 的積極影響約為 1.5 億美元。好的。關於第二個關於進口關稅和影響的問題，我記得去年，一些分析師和市場專家正在評估，在最初的時間框架內，降低關稅的影響約為 1.5 億美元。 Braskem 的 EBITDA，將在 22 年和 23 年之間分配，對嗎？

So part of that was already in last year's results. For this year, it would be a reduction of about $70 million to $80 million in EBITDA. With this, we recover a part of that. So if you just do kind of a monthly average, you probably get to a ballpark that makes sense. It's important to mention that the main impact we see is in recovery of market share given that the resetting of tariffs to the previous level and kind of to the average level of the other products in Brazil, brings us back to a parity of competitiveness that I believe we will need to recover it, especially in market share. And then on the last question about the U.S. shift to export market to becoming an export market. What we see is -- I mean, there were a couple of new plants that started up end of last year.

所以其中一部分已經在去年的結果中。今年，EBITDA 將減少約 7000 萬至 8000 萬美元。有了這個，我們恢復了一部分。因此，如果您只是按月平均計算，您可能會得出一個有意義的大概結果。值得一提的是，我們看到的主要影響是市場份額的恢復，因為將關稅重置到之前的水平，以及巴西其他產品的平均水平，使我們回到了我認為的同等競爭力相信我們需要恢復它，尤其是在市場份額方面。然後是關於美國轉向出口市場成為出口市場的最後一個問題。我們看到的是——我的意思是，去年年底有幾家新工廠開工。

So this year, we're still seeing -- because they are ramping up, we still see that there will be more supply growth than demand growth in the U.S. But for next year, for example, we don't see any new supply in the U.S. or for the following years. In fact, I mean if you look into the future, we are not seeing any new investments or credible investment [CPP] in the U.S. So our view is that this impact will last for this year. Next year should already be a year where exports will be starting to come down again. And then the U.S. will come back potentially between '24 and '25, come back to becoming a net importer again.

所以今年，我們仍然看到 - 因為它們正在增加，我們仍然看到美國的供應增長將超過需求增長。但是對於明年，例如，我們看不到任何新的供應美國或接下來的幾年。事實上，我的意思是，如果你展望未來，我們在美國看不到任何新的投資或可靠的投資 [CPP]。所以我們認為這種影響將持續到今年。明年應該已經是出口再次開始下降的一年。然後美國可能會在 24 到 25 年間回歸，再次成為淨進口國。

And one thing that I think is important to mention is that when we approved the new project that we started up back in '21 in the U.S., the business case for that project included a significant amount of exports. So we were already seeing that shift of the U.S. to an export hub. We created an export facility in Charleston, to be able to have very efficient logistics to export. And going forward, I mean, we are pretty confident that the return on the project will continue to be very good, because the business case already expected this to happen. Also, another important aspect, I mean, is to consider Braskem's commercial efforts in the U.S. The market last year for PP in the U.S. had a reduction of 6% roughly, while our sales in the internal market fell by 4%. So in fact, we gained some market share in the U.S., even in this tough market conditions.

我認為值得一提的是，當我們批准我們於 21 世紀在美國啟動的新項目時，該項目的商業案例包括大量出口。所以我們已經看到美國向出口中心的轉變。我們在查爾斯頓創建了一個出口設施，以便能夠擁有非常高效的出口物流。展望未來，我的意思是，我們非常有信心該項目的回報將繼續非常好，因為商業案例已經預料到會發生這種情況。另外，我的意思是，另一個重要方面是考慮 Braskem 在美國的商業努力。去年美國 PP 市場大致下降了 6%，而我們在國內市場的銷售額下降了 4%。所以事實上，我們在美國獲得了一些市場份額，即使是在這種艱難的市場條件下。

Our next question comes from Luiz Carvalho with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Luiz Carvalho。

It's only 3 points here to -- I know they would like to have a bit more color from your end. The first one thing on the leverage. You still have a quite relative controlled leverage, but when we look forward as part of the current weak results that the company has then delivered because of the spreads, this will impact you to the leverage looking forward on a substantial way according to our calculation here. So just trying to discern how you're seeing -- you're really get a bond in the beginning of the year, if you get $1 billion, so how are you seeing the debt management at the end of the day? If you can talk about any covenants or waivers that would be interesting to understand how you're seeing this.

這裡只有 3 點——我知道他們希望從您那裡得到更多的顏色。關於槓桿的第一件事。您仍然擁有相對可控的槓桿，但是當我們期待公司由於利差而交付的當前疲弱業績的一部分時，根據我們此處的計算，這將對您的槓桿產生實質性影響.所以只是想弄清楚你是如何看待的——如果你得到 10 億美元，你真的會在年初獲得債券，那麼你如何看待一天結束時的債務管理？如果你能談談任何有助於理解你如何看待這一點的契約或棄權書。

The second one, it's about the -- I don't know the inflation, right? We have been seeing inflation globally that has been impacting materially the capital for many companies. So just trying to understand a bit better how the -- I don't know, the global inflation and maybe specifically in Brazil is impacting your sector. And if it makes sense to consider higher maintenance CapEx compared to this historical levels without -- and also if there has been any impact of the Mexico investments. And very lastly, more on the additional -- the capacity globally. We have been following this Monaca plant from Shell, having some discussions about mechanical issues and potential delays over the start up. So if you can comment on the -- I don't know, on potential delays, and how you're seeing the additional capacity coming over the next couple of quarters or potentially in 2024?

第二個是關於——我不知道通貨膨脹，對吧？我們一直看到全球通貨膨脹對許多公司的資本產生了重大影響。所以只是想更好地了解——我不知道，全球通貨膨脹，也許特別是在巴西，是如何影響你的行業的。如果考慮與歷史水平相比更高的維護資本支出是否有意義——以及墨西哥投資是否有任何影響。最後，更多關於全球的容量。我們一直在關注殼牌的這家莫納卡工廠，就機械問題和啟動期間的潛在延遲進行了一些討論。所以，如果你能評論——我不知道，關於潛在的延遲，以及你如何看待未來幾個季度或可能在 2024 年出現的額外產能？

Luiz, thank you for your questions. So on leverage, what we're seeing is that leverage is going to go up. It's just a matter of numbers, right? We had still a strong first half of last year and a very weak second half. So we are now replacing. And now this year, as I mentioned earlier, is a recovery year. So we're going to see -- we expect to see a better first half of this year compared to the second half of last year. But compared to the first half of last year, it's going to be a weaker first half, right? So we are replacing a first half of last year that was pretty strong with a weaker first half of this year. And in terms of EBITDA, right?

路易斯，謝謝你的提問。所以在槓桿方面，我們看到的是槓桿將會上升。這只是數字的問題，對吧？去年上半年我們仍然表現強勁，而下半年則非常疲軟。所以我們現在正在更換。而現在，正如我之前提到的，今年是複甦的一年。所以我們將看到 - 我們預計今年上半年會比去年下半年更好。但是和去年上半年相比，今年上半年會比較疲軟吧？因此，我們正在用今年上半年較弱的表現取代去年上半年相當強勁的表現。就 EBITDA 而言，對嗎？

So the leverage number is going to go up, because the EBITDA number on our last 12-month basis is going to come down. Our net debt is under control. So it's within ranges that we find very acceptable. And we don't anticipate them to go up above any threshold that we would find concerning, but the net leverage number is going to go up until June. And then in the half of the year, our outlook is for a better second half of this year compared to the second half of last year. So the second half of this year -- by the end of the second half of this year, leverage will come down where we expect it to come down as the EBITDA number recovers, replacing a better second quarter -- second half of this year compared to the second half of last year.

所以槓桿數字將會上升，因為我們過去 12 個月的 EBITDA 數字將會下降。我們的淨債務得到控制。所以它在我們認為非常可接受的範圍內。我們預計它們不會超過我們認為有關的任何閾值，但淨槓桿率數字將上升到 6 月。然後在今年下半年，與去年下半年相比，我們預計今年下半年會更好。因此，今年下半年 - 到今年下半年末，隨著 EBITDA 數字的恢復，槓桿率將下降到我們預期的水平，取代更好的第二季度 - 今年下半年相比到去年下半年。

So this is how we're seeing the rating agencies understand this dynamic. We have been in dialogue with them about this. And they understand the cyclical nature of the business and kind of the short-term effects that the business may face. Regarding the bond and debt management, I mean, we did this bond issuance. We saw a very narrow window kind of as [liver] of a window in the beginning of February. And we had the $300 million roughly of bonds maturing in the beginning of next year -- in January of next year. So -- and we also saw a very uncertain financial market situation. We saw also kind of the cyclicality of our business. And we decided to come to the market to tap the market in the (inaudible), because we saw that kind of very narrow reach in terms of potential deal that we actually were able to put through.

這就是我們看到評級機構理解這種動態的方式。我們一直在與他們就此進行對話。他們了解業務的周期性以及業務可能面臨的短期影響。關於債券和債務管理，我的意思是，我們發行了債券。我們在 2 月初看到了一個非常狹窄的窗口，就像一個窗口的[肝臟]。我們大約有 3 億美元的債券在明年年初——明年 1 月到期。所以——我們也看到了一個非常不確定的金融市場形勢。我們還看到了我們業務的周期性。我們決定進入市場以開拓市場（聽不清），因為我們看到我們實際上能夠達成的潛在交易範圍非常狹窄。

We have since paid down the '24 bond. And for the rest, I mean, we are going to wait a few more months to see how the market develops, the cycle develops. And if things perform in a favorable way, we are probably going to continue doing the liability management with the pursuit of that bond. Regarding covenants and waivers, we don't have any financial covenants in our corporate debt at Braskem. So that is not an issue, even with metrics kind of shifting over the next quarters. Regarding your second question about -- sorry, still on leverage, it's important also to mention that our debt maturity profile remains very long, the average debt term is 13 years. And our cash position is pretty strong to face future scenario.

我們已經償還了 24 年的債券。至於其餘的，我的意思是，我們將再等幾個月，看看市場如何發展，週期如何發展。如果事情以有利的方式表現，我們可能會繼續進行負債管理以追求這種債券。關於契約和豁免，我們在 Braskem 的公司債務中沒有任何財務契約。所以這不是問題，即使指標在接下來的幾個季度發生了變化。關於你的第二個問題 - 抱歉，仍然是槓桿，同樣重要的是要提到我們的債務期限仍然很長，平均債務期限為 13 年。而且我們的現金狀況非常強勁，可以應對未來的情況。

We have enough cash to pay down 5 years of debt if necessary. Regarding the inflation impact, Rosana is reminding me here that all of that does not consider (inaudible) by credit facility that we have until (inaudible) of a billion dollar addition. So on inflation, we do see an impact. When we look at the sector prices adjust. So we follow international prices. As costs go up, the marginal cost producers will have to -- and we see that happening somehow. Some adjustment in prices could be because of supply-demand dynamics. It could be something related to inflation as well. But we see those adjustments starting to happen. When we look at -- and we even saw some of our peers announcing one-off adjustments to make up, for example, for higher energy costs in Europe last year.

如果有必要，我們有足夠的現金償還 5 年的債務。關於通貨膨脹的影響，Rosana 在這裡提醒我，所有這些都沒有考慮（聽不清）我們擁有的信貸設施，直到（聽不清）增加 10 億美元。因此，在通貨膨脹方面，我們確實看到了影響。當我們看行業價格調整時。所以我們遵循國際價格。隨著成本上升，邊際成本生產商將不得不——我們看到這種情況正在以某種方式發生。價格的一些調整可能是由於供需動態。這也可能與通貨膨脹有關。但我們看到這些調整開始發生。當我們看 - 我們甚至看到我們的一些同行宣布一次性調整以彌補，例如，去年歐洲更高的能源成本。

Regarding CapEx and how we see that, our total operating CapEx for this year is, without Mexico, $650 million, which is in line and the operating includes some positive NPV projects that are not strictly maintenance CapEx. So this number is in line with what we have been telling you in the past that the run rate number for Braskem in terms of maintenance CapEx of about $600 million per year. Do we see inflation in that? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Right now, for example, there is a favorable condition for some equipment that we see already having prices reduced. In the back end of '21, we did see a lot of over costs in equipment. Now that is -- that has abated substantially. So it depends a lot on the pieces of CapEx that we're talking about.

關於資本支出以及我們如何看待這一點，我們今年的運營資本支出總額（不包括墨西哥）為 6.5 億美元，這是符合預期的，並且運營包括一些並非嚴格維護資本支出的積極 NPV 項目。所以這個數字與我們過去告訴你的一致，即 Braskem 在維護資本支出方面的運行率數字約為每年 6 億美元。我們在其中看到通貨膨脹了嗎？有時是，有時不是。例如，目前我們看到一些設備已經降價，情況有利。在 21 年底，我們確實看到了很多設備成本過高。現在——已經大大減少了。所以這在很大程度上取決於我們正在談論的資本支出部分。

In terms of services, we do see some inflation. But again, not something that makes us concerned. And then talking about the Shell project, and delays. I would just make a more general comment on that. Delays happen in the industry. We actually have a pretty good (inaudible) and a pretty good track record in terms of delivering on time and on budget, the Delta project, the last very -- the last big project we did was delayed by about 10%, a few months, and that was because most of COVID, not because of our internal deliveries. It was about 6 months delay. So this happens in the industry. Every year, we see that capacity additions are postponed and delayed. As you know, we take a more conservative view when we talk about the cycle. So we are assuming that everything will come to the market in the time expected. But usually, that doesn't happen. So there is some upside to the scenario because of delays and especially, I would say, in PE and globally where we see still substantial capacity into the market this year.

在服務方面，我們確實看到了一些通貨膨脹。但同樣，這不是讓我們擔心的事情。然後談論殼牌項目，並延遲。我只想就此發表更籠統的評論。延遲發生在行業中。實際上，我們在按時和按預算交付方面有一個非常好的（聽不清）和一個非常好的記錄，三角洲項目，最後一個 - 我們做的最後一個大項目被推遲了大約 10%，幾個月，那是因為大部分 COVID，而不是因為我們的內部交付。大約延遲了 6 個月。因此，這種情況發生在行業中。每年，我們都會看到產能增加被推遲和推遲。如您所知，當我們談論周期時，我們採取更保守的觀點。所以我們假設一切都會在預期的時間內上市。但通常情況下，這不會發生。因此，由於延遲，這種情況有一些好處，特別是，我想說，在 PE 和全球範圍內，我們認為今年市場仍有大量產能。

Our next question comes from Frank McGann with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Frank McGann。

I apologize, I had some connection problems. So some of these might have been asked. But the first one, just in terms of the payments related to the Alagoas provision, and how that is affecting your tax rate, both the reported tax rate and your cash taxes, would be helpful.

抱歉，我遇到了一些連接問題。所以其中一些可能已經被問到。但第一個，就與阿拉戈斯條款相關的付款而言，以及它如何影響你的稅率，包括報告的稅率和你的現金稅，會有所幫助。

Also, just in terms of PVC, I mean the prices have been rising recently. And I just wonder how much you attribute that to China reopening or what other factors you see. And particularly what kind of capacity additions that you see for PVC over the short-to-medium term globally that could affect supply-demand dynamics. And then on polypropylene, I think this might have been asked because the line wasn't clear when this question was asked, for me anyways.

另外，就PVC而言，我的意思是最近價格一直在上漲。我只是想知道您在多大程度上將其歸因於中國的重新開放或您看到的其他因素。特別是您在全球中短期內看到什麼樣的 PVC 產能增加可能會影響供需動態。然後關於聚丙烯，我認為這可能已經被問到，因為無論如何對我來說，當這個問題被問到時，界限並不明確。

In terms of the -- with a huge amount of capacity coming on in the U.S., and how you're seeing that affecting the next couple of years and particularly how that could feed through into Brazilian pricing and margins?

就美國的大量產能而言，您如何看待這會影響未來幾年，特別是如何影響巴西的定價和利潤率？

Frank, nice talking to you. On Alagoas, I understand your question is specifically about the tax impact. As for any expense that we have, it's -- for tax purposes, it's considered an expense which is deductible, right? So from a cash basis, there is some benefit coming out of that.

弗蘭克，很高興和你交談。在 Alagoas，我知道你的問題是關於稅收影響的。至於我們的任何費用，出於稅收目的，它被視為可扣除的費用，對嗎？因此，從收付實現制來看，這會帶來一些好處。

But it's part of our tax, regular tax findings as a deductible expense that we have in the company. And as you know, the tax rate in Brazil is 34%. So that is kind of the net impact that you see. In terms of PVC, we see demand coming especially from China -- sorry, especially from India, it's from Asia, but especially from India until March. In April, we see some downward adjustment, but caustic soda is still playing a positive role in the combined spread of PVC plus caustic, right? There is an upside as China recovers, but that recovery is still slow.

但這是我們稅收的一部分，作為我們在公司的可扣除費用的常規稅收調查結果。如您所知，巴西的稅率為 34%。這就是您看到的淨影響。在 PVC 方面，我們看到需求特別來自中國——抱歉，特別是來自印度，它來自亞洲，但尤其是印度直到 3 月。 4月份，我們看到一些向下調整，但燒鹼仍然在PVC加燒鹼的聯合價差中發揮積極作用，對吧？隨著中國的複蘇，有上行空間，但復甦仍然緩慢。

So we are not seeing that impact in the kind of -- we don't -- we're not assuming a fast recovery from China in our numbers. So the net positive is really more coming from India. And then regarding capacity additions in the U.S., when we look at PP, we don't see substantial new capacity additions in the coming years. We believe that the capacities that were expected to come to market have done so. So they are already in the numbers. We do see still PP capacity coming to the market in China, especially this year, right? And then on PE, there is still some capacity to come to market in the U.S. based on PE, it still based on the competitiveness of ethane in the U.S.

因此，我們沒有看到這種影響——我們沒有——我們沒有假設我們的數字會從中國快速復蘇。因此，淨積極更多地來自印度。然後關於美國的產能增加，當我們看 PP 時，我們看不到未來幾年會有大量新產能增加。我們相信，預計將進入市場的產能已經實現了。所以他們已經在數字中了。我們確實看到仍有 PP 產能進入中國市場，尤其是今年，對嗎？然後在PE上，還是有一些產能在美國上市，基於PE，還是基於乙烷在美國的競爭力。

So the total addition that we see for the coming years is about 2 million tons, but still, I would say, most of that concentrated still this year. So I guess what I'm trying to convey is that the -- what we believe is the capacity addition cycle in the U.S. will be much lower in the coming years. And then when we look at how could that affect us, I would split that into kind of the 2 products, right? NPV capacity additions, be it in the U.S. or China, but capacity additions tend to need to -- if they are faster than demand growth as we still expect this year, they tend to reduce spreads globally.

因此，我們看到未來幾年的總增加量約為 200 萬噸，但我要說的是，其中大部分仍集中在今年。所以我想我想表達的是——我們相信美國的產能增加週期在未來幾年將大大降低。然後當我們研究這對我們有何影響時，我會把它分成兩種產品，對吧？ NPV 產能增加，無論是在美國還是在中國，但產能增加往往需要——如果它們快於我們今年仍然預期的需求增長，它們往往會減少全球範圍內的價差。

That has an effect on our, I would say, margins, especially in Mexico and Brazil, because we price based on the U.S. price, right, for polyethylene. In PP, in the U.S., it's much more local in terms of how pricing is, and as mentioned earlier, we do see the market shifting to an export parity. So that would mean a bit lower margins in the U.S. compared to, let's say, the average of the last 4 or 5 years. In Brazil, we price out of Asia, right? So as the Asian price recovers, we see a potential recovery in the PP price in Brazil. But that again depends on demand recovery in China.

我想說，這對我們的利潤率有影響，尤其是在墨西哥和巴西，因為我們根據美國的價格定價，正確的，聚乙烯。在 PP 方面，在美國，就定價而言，它更加本地化，而且如前所述，我們確實看到市場正在轉向出口平價。因此，這意味著與過去 4 或 5 年的平均水平相比，美國的利潤率略低。在巴西，我們在亞洲定價，對吧？因此，隨著亞洲價格回升，我們看到巴西 PP 價格可能回升。但這又取決於中國的需求復蘇。

Our next question comes from Daniel Soyode with BNP.

我們的下一個問題來自 BNP 的 Daniel Soyode。

Two questions from me. Firstly, are you expecting H2 '22 to H2 '23 to be better than H1 '22? And the second question, you said that you're in dialogue with rating agencies. And can you confirm that you're committed to maintaining your investment-grade rating?

我有兩個問題。首先，您是否期望 H2 '22 到 H2 '23 比 H1 '22 更好？第二個問題，你說你正在與評級機構進行對話。您能否確認您致力於維持您的投資級評級？

David (sic) [Daniel], thank you for your questions. Our internal assumption is that H2 '23 will not be as strong as H1 '22. H1 '22 was an above average. If you look at the cycle, it was above the average of the cycle, say -- and our view is that this year, we -- maybe by the end of the year, we get back to average cycle spreads. But last year, it was really still an up cycle, right? So again, just to enforce, we are not seeing H2 '23 being as strong as H1 '22. Regarding the other question about rating agencies.

大衛（原文如此）[丹尼爾]，謝謝你的提問。我們的內部假設是 H2 '23 不會像 H1 '22 那樣強。 H1 '22 高於平均水平。如果你看一下週期，它高於週期的平均水平，比如說——我們的觀點是，今年，我們——也許到年底，我們會回到平均週期利差。但是去年真的還是上升週期吧？因此，再次強調，我們沒有看到 H2 '23 與 H1 '22 一樣強大。關於評級機構的另一個問題。

We are committed to keeping the investment grade of the company, and we have a constant dialogue with them to make sure that they are updated on everything that is going on. We have very strong trust in our credit profile. We see that very long-term maturity of the debt in a cyclical industry is a key aspect of the decision by the rating agencies. And we also, as you can see with what we just did in liability management, we keep committed to that route.

我們致力於保持公司的投資評級，並與他們保持持續對話，以確保他們了解最新進展。我們對我們的信用狀況非常信任。我們看到，週期性行業債務的超長期期限是評級機構做出決定的一個關鍵方面。而且，正如您在責任管理方面剛剛所做的那樣，我們也一直致力於這條路線。

So we do expect to keep the investment grade, especially because our numbers are in line with what the agencies expect in terms, as I mentioned earlier, higher leverage in first half of '23 and then reduction with improvement of spreads. So all of that is very opened out with the agencies, and we keep committed to keeping that to investment grade.

因此，我們確實希望保持投資等級，特別是因為我們的數字符合機構的預期，正如我之前提到的，23 年上半年槓桿率較高，然後隨著利差的改善而減少。因此，所有這些都對機構開放，我們一直致力於將其保持在投資級別。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Christina Ronac with HSBC.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Christina Ronac。

A quick question for me. Remind me on the Alagoas, I know it's a big payment for 2023. And if you then, you're almost pretty much done, remind me for 2023, is this going to be an outflow of about BRL 4.9 billion?

一個簡單的問題問我。提醒我關於 Alagoas，我知道這是 2023 年的一大筆付款。如果你到那時，你幾乎已經完成了，提醒我 2023 年，這將是大約 49 億雷亞爾的外流嗎？

Hi, Christina. The expectation is BRL 4.2 billion for this year. And then the remainder will be somewhere around BRL 1.9 billion, something like that -- sorry, BRL 2.4 billion. Rosana has corrected me. So it's BRL 4.2 billion for this year and BRL 2.4 billion for the following years going forward.

嗨，克里斯蒂娜。今年的預期是 42 億雷亞爾。然後剩下的將在 19 億巴西雷亞爾左右，大概是這樣——抱歉，24 億巴西雷亞爾。羅莎娜糾正了我。所以今年是 42 億巴西雷亞爾，未來幾年是 24 億巴西雷亞爾。

And just to clarify. And so the BRL 2.4 billion for 2024 and then that should be then for 2025 would be zero?

只是為了澄清。那麼 2024 年的 24 億巴西雷亞爾到 2025 年應該為零？

No, no. It's BRL 4.2 billion for '23. And then for the remainder of the program, in total, BRL 2.4 billion, which should be spread between 2 or 3 years. Also important to remember that we are still in discussion with authorities in the City of Maceio, right, so these numbers can change.

不，不。 23 年是 42 億雷亞爾。然後對於該計劃的剩餘部分，總計 24 億雷亞爾，應分攤到 2 或 3 年之間。同樣重要的是要記住，我們仍在與馬塞約市的當局進行討論，對吧，所以這些數字可能會改變。

Our next question comes from [Bruno Figueiredo] with [Veritas] Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自 [Bruno Figueiredo] 和 [Veritas] Bank。

I would like to know more about the addition that was made to the Alagoas event.

我想了解更多有關 Alagoas 事件的新增內容。

So in the last quarter of last year, we didn't have any significant change. I mean we had a reduction in the provision because of -- I mean, the continuation of the payouts in the -- to the people that live in the area. In the gross provision, there was a slight adjustment of about BRL 100 million, while we paid BRL 720 million. This BRL 100 million, I mean, is a lot of different things in there.

所以在去年最後一個季度，我們沒有任何重大變化。我的意思是我們減少了撥款，因為 - 我的意思是，繼續支付給居住在該地區的人們。在總準備金中，略微調整了約1億雷亞爾，而我們支付了7.2億雷亞爾。這 1 億雷亞爾，我的意思是，裡面有很多不同的東西。

So it's adjustments in the value of the homes. It's also changes in the technical approach to closing down some of the wells. So it's a mixed bag of several different things, small adjustments upwards, downwards, and the net of that is about BRL 100 million in the gross provision. But again, the total provision is coming down as we paid people in our awards. It's also important to mention that with all the settlements we have and with the progression of the programs, the risks and uncertainties have been reduced very materially.

所以這是房屋價值的調整。它還改變了關閉一些油井的技術方法。因此，它是幾個不同事物的混合體，向上、向下進行小幅調整，總準備金的淨額約為 1 億雷亞爾。但同樣，隨著我們在獎勵中向人們支付費用，總撥款正在下降。同樣重要的是要提到，隨著我們擁有的所有和解以及項目的進展，風險和不確定性已經大大降低。

We see clearly a reduction of uncertainties related to the event and be it -- regarding the settlements we did, be it around the implementation of the actions that we have agreed to. So I think the situation today is much more favorable. And I think the big point is now for us to deliver the program for this year, especially the BRL 4.2 billion that I mentioned in Christina's question that is expected for this year.

我們清楚地看到與事件相關的不確定性有所減少——關於我們所做的和解，無論是圍繞我們同意的行動的實施。所以我認為今天的情況要有利得多。我認為現在最重要的是我們要交付今年的計劃，尤其是我在克里斯蒂娜的問題中提到的今年預計的 42 億雷亞爾。

(Operator Instructions) Not being further questions, this concludes today's conference and today's question-and-answer session. I would like to invite the company to proceed with its closing statements. Please go ahead.

（操作員說明）今天的會議和問答環節到此結束。我想請公司繼續其結案陳述。請繼續。

So we have here Roberto Bischoff, our CEO, who will make the final remarks.

我們的首席執行官 Roberto Bischoff 將在這裡發表最後的評論。

Hi, everybody. I want to thank you, everyone, for participating today in our earning calls. And I will leave you now with some comments. On the petrochemical scenario '22, we saw spreads for petrochemical and chemical products in the international market, very much affected by global supply-demand dynamics. Various factors contributed to weaker demand, such as Pedro mentioned, zero COVID measures that pressure China's economic growth and uncertainties regarding scenario in U.S. and Europe.

大家好。我要感謝大家今天參加我們的收入電話會議。現在我將給你們一些評論。在石化情景 '22 中，我們看到了國際市場上石化和化工產品的價差，這在很大程度上受全球供需動態的影響。多種因素導致需求疲軟，例如 Pedro 提到的零 COVID 措施給中國經濟增長帶來壓力，以及美國和歐洲情景的不確定性。

We also observed a higher supply of products with new PE and PP capacity coming online in U.S., in China. These effects combined and put pressure on petrochemical and chemical spreads in the international market, especially during the second half of '22 of the year. Here, I should reinforce that we are maintaining our commitment to cost discipline and have implemented actions to cut costs, prioritize investments and optimize cash preservation. These actions, combined with our diversified portfolio in terms of products and geographies, let us deliver cash flow of BRL 3 billion in the year, even in this tough scenario.

我們還觀察到美國和中國的新 PE 和 PP 產能上線，產品供應量增加。這些影響加在一起，給國際市場上的石化和化工價差帶來壓力，尤其是在今年 22 年下半年。在這裡，我要強調的是，我們正在維持對成本紀律的承諾，並已採取行動削減成本、優先投資和優化現金保存。這些行動，再加上我們在產品和地域方面的多元化投資組合，讓我們在這一年實現了 30 億雷亞爾的現金流，即使在這種艱難的情況下也是如此。

For '23, we continue to see a volatile [starting] scenario, but with positive signs of higher levels of demand, especially with the opening of China. The pace of China's reopening will be one of the main factors in the recovery of spreads in the international market and the resumption of an up cycle.

對於 23 年，我們繼續看到一個不穩定的 [starting] 場景，但有更高需求水平的積極跡象，尤其是隨著中國的開放。中國復工復產步伐將是國際市場價差回升、重啟上行週期的主要因素之一。

In this scenario, we are prioritizing actions to optimize and maximize the operations of our industrial assets to capture sales opportunities and synergies across our business, given our global footprint, and maintain cost discipline by reducing fixed and variable costs and implementing the Transform for Value program. We also continue to advance in implementing our strategy for 2030 by prioritizing the execution of investments in high-value projects that are aligned with our growth avenues in traditional, renewables and recycling businesses.

在這種情況下，考慮到我們的全球足跡，我們正在優先採取行動來優化和最大化我們的工業資產的運營，以抓住銷售機會和整個業務的協同效應，並通過降低固定和可變成本以及實施價值轉型計劃來維持成本紀律.我們還通過優先執行與我們在傳統、可再生能源和回收業務中的增長途徑相一致的高價值項目投資，繼續推進我們 2030 年戰略的實施。

In closing, once again I want to thank you, all of our shareholders, investors and stakeholders for their trust and for participating in our earning calls. And I hope to see you again in May when we'll be reporting our results for the first quarter of the year. Thank you very much.

最後，我要再次感謝您、我們所有的股東、投資者和利益相關者的信任並參與我們的財報電話會議。我希望在 5 月再次見到您，屆時我們將報告今年第一季度的業績。非常感謝。

That does conclude the Braskem video conference for today. Thank you very much for your participation. Have a good day, and you may disconnect your lines now.

今天的 Braskem 視頻會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天，你現在可以斷開你的線路了。