美國銀行 (BAC) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome, everyone, joining today's Bank of America earnings announcement. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the meeting over to Lee McEntire of Bank of America.

大家好，歡迎各位參加今天的美國銀行（Bank of America）財報公告電話會議。(接線員指示) 請注意，本次電話會議將被錄音。(接線員指示) 現在我很榮幸將會議交給美國銀行的 Lee McEntire。

Thank you, Leah. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us to talk through our third quarter results. I'm joined by Brian Moynihan, our Chair and CEO; and Alastair Borthwick, our CFO. As always, the earnings release and presentation are posted on the Investor Relations section of bankofamerica.com and will reference those materials during the call.

謝謝你，Leah。各位早安，感謝大家加入我們，一起回顧第三季業績。今天與我一同出席的有：董事長兼執行長 Brian Moynihan，以及財務長 Alastair Borthwick。照例，我們的財報新聞稿與簡報已發布於 bankofamerica.com 的投資人關係專區，並且我們會在會議中引用這些資料。

Before we begin, a quick reminder, during the call, we may make forward-looking statements and refer to non-GAAP financial measures. These reflect management's current views and are subject to risks and uncertainties. They are outlined along with the relevant GAAP reconciliations in our earnings materials and SEC filings on our website.

在開始之前先提醒一下：在本次電話會議中，我們可能會發表前瞻性陳述，並提及非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些內容反映管理階層目前的觀點，並可能受到風險與不確定性影響。相關說明以及對應的 GAAP 調節表，已載於我們的財報資料與網站上的 SEC 申報文件中。

With that, I'll turn it over to you, Brian.

接下來，我把時間交給你，Brian。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. Our third quarter results show the importance of a diversified company. The businesses closest to customers, wealth clients and commercial clients, the Main Street businesses showed continued strength, higher loans and deposits, strong wealth management flows, higher NII and better credit drove solid earnings, while the sales and trading revenue and investment banking revenue were lower.

各位早安，感謝大家今天加入我們。我們第三季的結果顯示，多元化公司的重要性。最貼近客戶的業務——財富客戶與商業客戶、也就是「主街」（Main Street）業務——持續展現強勁動能：放款與存款增加、財富管理資金流入強勁、淨利息收入（NII）提高、信用表現改善，帶動穩健獲利；但銷售與交易收入以及投資銀行收入則較低。

We reported net income of $6.9 billion after tax and earnings per share of $0.91. On slide 2, we've adjusted those results to take into account the nontax deductible regulatory settlement charge of $1.2 billion, which is a $0.17 per share impact.

我們公布稅後淨利為 69 億美元，每股盈餘（EPS）為 0.91 美元。在投影片 2，我們已調整上述結果，以反映 12 億美元不可抵稅的監管和解費用，對每股盈餘影響為 0.17 美元。

Three points to understand about the settlement. We understand the seriousness of compliance to be responsible we're getting it right. We have invested -- second, we've invested billions of dollars in technology and dedicated thousands of employees to combat financial crime. The team is far along with and committed to completing the work required to be addressed by the regulators. Third, we have committed the resources and the ongoing cost of remediation is embedded in our company's expense base.

關於這項和解，有三點需要理解。第一，我們理解合規的重要性；為了負責任，我們正確保把事情做對。第二，我們已投入數十億美元於科技，並配置數千名員工以打擊金融犯罪。團隊在完成監管機關要求處理的工作方面已取得很大進展，並承諾完成。第三，我們已投入所需資源，且持續性的補救成本已納入公司費用基礎之中。

Excluding the regulatory settlement charge, our net income was $8.1 billion or approximately $1.08 per share, up from last year. Our leadership across our businesses and products and geographies allows us to meet more of each client's needs, deepen relationships and drive growth across our company. The connectivity between business units is strong and continues to be a competitive advantage.

若排除監管和解費用，我們的淨利為 81 億美元，約每股 1.08 美元，較去年增加。我們在各項業務、產品與地理區域的領導地位，使我們能滿足每位客戶更多需求、深化關係，並推動全公司成長。各業務單位之間的連結性很強，並持續成為競爭優勢。

Now when we think about our results, it starts with the health and activity of our clients, which brings us to slide 3. We believe that Bank of America, our clearest economic signal comes from the daily activity of the 70 million clients and thousands of businesses that bank with us. And the message has been consistent. Consumers continue to spend with year-to-date money moving up 5% from 2025, and you can see that on slide 3, and that's similar to what it was for the third quarter and similar to what has shown up so far in early October.

談到我們的業績，首先要看的是客戶的健康狀況與活動度，這帶我們來到投影片 3。我們認為，對美國銀行而言，最清晰的經濟訊號來自與我們往來的 7,000 萬名客戶與數千家企業的日常活動。而這個訊息一直很一致。消費者持續支出；年初至今的資金流動較 2025 年增加 5%，你可以在投影片 3 看到；這與第三季的情況相近，也與 10 月初目前呈現的趨勢相似。

Our business clients invested and hired selectively, supported solid growth in jobs and wages across various income levels in our customer base. Wealth clients remain engaged and continue to seek advice while commercial clients use more of our lending, treasury and payments capabilities.

我們的企業客戶選擇性地投資與招募，支撐了我們客群中各收入層級的就業與薪資穩健成長。財富客戶仍保持參與並持續尋求建議，而商業客戶則更多使用我們的放款、財資與支付能力。

Payment volumes, digital activity, loan demand and well flows all remained healthy. And you can see the digital activity in the slides in the appendix as we always put in our results. The economic uncertainty that prevails in digeopolitical instability are always present, but what our clients are actually doing is continuing to point to a resilient and growing economy in the United States. That activity has produced organic growth across our company, coupled with great credit quality, and we show that on slide 4.

支付量、數位活動、放款需求以及財富資金流（wealth flows）都維持健康。你也可以在附錄投影片中看到數位活動的數據，我們一如既往會在業績資料中提供。地緣政治不穩定所帶來的經濟不確定性始終存在，但我們客戶實際的行為持續指向美國經濟具韌性且仍在成長。這些活動帶動了我們全公司的內生成長，再加上優異的信用品質，我們在投影片 4 進行展示。

Slide 4 shows the initiative organic growth for the quarter. In quarter three, once again, we grew through both client acquisition and doing more with our current client customers. We added another 200,000 in the quarter of net new core consumer checking accounts. We now have 39 million checking account customers. It's been nearly eight straight years of quarterly progress and growth.

投影片 4 顯示本季的內生成長動能。在第三季，我們再次透過客戶新增以及與既有客戶做更多業務來實現成長。本季我們新增了 20 萬個核心消費者支票帳戶（淨新增）。目前我們共有 3,900 萬名支票帳戶客戶。這已是將近連續 8 年每季持續進步與成長。

That's quite a flywheel. We opened more than 1 million new card accounts, and importantly, we grew our card balances nearly 5%, consistent with our medium-term goals disclosed at Investor Day. The focus on investment in that card product is producing results. Our wealth clients generated approximately $41 billion of flows during the quarter. We continue to add affluent and high net worth relationships across global wealth and consumer investments. Across those businesses, clients entrust us with more than $5.7 trillion of their family's balances.

這是一個相當強勁的飛輪效應。我們新開立超過 100 萬個信用卡帳戶；更重要的是，我們的卡片餘額成長近 5%，符合我們在投資人日所揭露的中期目標。對卡片產品的投資聚焦正在產生成果。本季我們的財富客戶帶來約 410 億美元的資金流入。我們持續在全球財富管理與消費者投資業務中，新增富裕與高淨值客戶關係。在這些業務中，客戶將其家族超過 5.7 兆美元的資產餘額託付給我們。

Virtual loans grew across every single segment from small business to business banking, the global commercial bank and the global corporate investment banking. That's from small businesses to largest companies of the world. Our treasury services, i.e., cash management relationship also expanded. This bodes well for our loan growth that we'll talk about later, but also shows you the strength in the economy as these commercial customers continue to be active.

各類放款在每一個區隔都成長，從小型企業到企業銀行、全球商業銀行，以及全球企業與投資銀行。涵蓋從小企業到全球最大型公司。我們的財資服務（亦即現金管理）往來關係也有所擴大。這不僅對我們稍後將討論的放款成長是正面訊號，也顯示經濟的強勁，因為這些商業客戶仍持續活躍。

Growth that you see on this page reflects the investments in our people, our technology, our capabilities in digital and our physical network. These deep relationships support earnings, balance sheet growth and long-term shareholder value.

你在本頁看到的成長，反映了我們在人才、科技、數位能力以及實體網路上的投資。這些深厚的客戶關係支撐獲利、資產負債表成長，以及長期股東價值。

With that overview, let me turn it over to Alistair for more detail on the quarter.

在上述概覽之後，接下來我把時間交給 Alistair，請他更詳細說明本季表現。

Thanks, Brian. I'll start with a few other income statement highlights on slide 5. And as Brian said, momentum continued in our core banking businesses in a Banking, Wealth Management and Global Banking's commercial businesses drove most of the revenue and earnings growth, while Markets and Investment Banking revenue declined from prior periods.

謝謝，Brian。我先從投影片 5 的其他損益表重點開始。如 Brian 所說，我們核心銀行業務的動能持續；消費銀行、財富管理，以及全球銀行的商業業務帶動了大部分營收與獲利成長，而市場業務與投資銀行營收則較前期下滑。

Equities delivered a record third quarter and reduced client activity and changing market conditions, including a major shift in interest rates, significantly affected our leading FICC micro businesses, including credit mortgages and municipals, and those declines more than offset growth elsewhere in trading.

股票業務創下第三季歷史新高；而客戶活動減少與市場環境變化（包括利率的大幅變動）則顯著影響我們領先的 FICC 宏觀業務（micro businesses），包括信用、房貸與市政債；這些下滑幅度超過交易業務其他領域的成長。

Revenue was approximately $30 billion, up around 3% year-over-year and an 8% increase in NII and 17% growth in asset management fees more than offset lower Investment Banking and Sales & Trading revenue. NII reached $16.6 billion on an FTE basis, up 8% year-over-year and was up $450 million from the second quarter. Net interest yield of 2.16% improved 15 basis points year-over-year and 8 basis points from the prior quarter, moving us closer to the 2.3% medium-term target we outlined at Investor Day.

營收約為 300 億美元，年增約 3%；淨利息收入（NII）成長 8%以及資產管理費用成長 17%，足以抵銷投資銀行與銷售與交易營收的下降。以 FTE（應稅等值）基礎計算，NII 達到 166 億美元，年增 8%，較第二季增加 4.5 億美元。淨利息收益率為 2.16%，年增 15 個基點，較前一季增加 8 個基點，使我們更接近在投資人日所提出的 2.3% 中期目標。

Credit quality improved, capital and liquidity remains strong and earnings remain solid. So let's turn to the balance sheet on slide 6, where you can see we remain strong and became more efficient as evidenced by the improvement in our net interest yield.

信用品質改善，資本與流動性維持強勁，獲利仍然穩健。接著我們看投影片 6 的資產負債表；你可以看到我們仍然強健，且如淨利息收益率的改善所示，我們的效率也提升了。

Total assets were $3.4 trillion, that was down 2% from Q2. Ending deposits increased $14 billion from Q2 and remained above $2 trillion. Quarter end loans rose $34 billion to $1.25 trillion, and we funded that growth by reducing securities balances, while lower markets assets and higher deposits allowed us to reduce short-term wholesale funding, thereby continuing to improve the net interest yield.

總資產為 3.4 兆美元，較第二季下降 2%。期末存款較第二季增加 140 億美元，並維持在 2 兆美元以上。季末放款增加 340 億美元至 1.25 兆美元；我們透過降低證券部位來支應這項成長。同時，市場資產下降與存款增加，使我們得以降低短期批發融資，從而持續改善淨利息收益率。

Loans have now grown for 10 consecutive quarters, reflecting continued activity across both commercial and consumer clients. Global liquidity sources remained strong at $914 billion and capital stayed well above regulatory minimums. CET1 was 10.9%, down roughly 35 basis points from Q2, primarily reflecting higher funded and unfunded loans, and a $3 billion reduction in CET1 capital. Capital distributions exceeded net income due to the regulatory settlement charge, and we also had a $1.8 billion portion of AOCI of AFS securities that impacted CET1 from higher rates.

貸款目前已連續10個季度成長，反映商業與消費者客戶兩端活動持續。全球流動性來源維持強勁，達9,140億美元，資本水準亦遠高於監管最低要求。CET1為10.9%，較第二季下降約35個基點，主要反映已動用與未動用貸款增加，以及CET1資本減少30億美元。由於監管和解費用，資本分配超過淨利；此外，因利率上升，AFS可供出售證券的AOCI中有18億美元部分影響了CET1。

Our hedging continued to limit the AOCI effect of higher long-term rates on much of the AFS securities portfolio and a little less than half of the total Q3 AOCI decline related to cash flow hedges and did not affect CET1. Despite the AOCI impact, tangible common equity ratio, or TCE ratio was stable with the second quarter.

我們的避險持續限制長天期利率上升對AFS證券投資組合多數部位之AOCI影響；第三季AOCI總降幅中略少於一半與現金流量避險相關，且不影響CET1。儘管AOCI帶來影響，有形普通股權比率（TCE比率）與第二季持平。

We returned $8.3 billion to shareholders this quarter through dividends and share repurchases. And this combination of balance sheet strength and capital generation continues to support clients and shareholders. Let's turn to deposits on slide 7, where you can see the they're at $2 trillion now, up $31 billion from the third quarter of 2025 despite our intentional runoff of $11 billion of higher cost deposits recorded in all other. Global Banking deposits grew 6% and consumer deposits increased modestly with low interest and noninterest-bearing balances up nearly 3%.

本季我們透過股利與庫藏股回購向股東返還83億美元。而資產負債表的強健與資本生成的組合，持續支持客戶與股東。接著看第7頁的存款，你可以看到目前為2兆美元，較2025年第三季增加310億美元，儘管我們刻意讓「其他」中記錄的110億美元高成本存款流出。全球銀行業務存款成長6%，消費者存款小幅增加，其中低息與無息存款餘額合計成長近3%。

GWIM deposits remained stable and well priced. Our deposit mix remained attractive with noninterest-bearing deposits accounting for more than 75% of year-over-year deposit growth. We also remain disciplined on pricing with the total deposit rate rising just 3 basis points to 1.49%.

GWIM存款維持穩定且定價良好。我們的存款結構仍具吸引力，無息存款占年增存款成長超過75%。我們在定價上也維持紀律，整體存款利率僅上升3個基點至1.49%。

Our focus on operating deposits and our low loan-to-deposit ratio allow us to compete on capabilities rather than price. Clients value the safety and convenience we provide, and a significant share of balances remains in relationship-based operating accounts and other low-cost funding. Our deposit franchise remains an important competitive advantage for us and continues to fund healthy client activity.

我們聚焦營運性存款，加上偏低的貸存比，使我們能以能力而非價格競爭。客戶重視我們提供的安全性與便利性，相當比例的資金仍留在以關係為基礎的營運帳戶及其他低成本資金來源。我們的存款特許經營權仍是重要競爭優勢，並持續為健康的客戶活動提供資金。

Let's turn to the loan trends Brian mentioned on slide 8, and here, we show average loans up approximately 6% year-over-year, led by broad-based gains in commercial. Wealth-related lending also remains strong and card balance growth continued to improve. Commercial loans increased 8% year-over-year with growth across every line of business with small business up 2%, Business Banking up 9%, Global Commercial up 6%, Global Corporate up 10% and GWIM custom lending was up 22%.

接著看Brian在第8頁提到的貸款趨勢；此處我們顯示平均貸款年增約6%，主要由商業貸款的廣泛成長帶動。財富相關放款仍然強勁，卡片餘額成長也持續改善。商業貸款年增8%，各業務線皆有成長：小型企業成長2%、商業銀行（Business Banking）成長9%、全球商業（Global Commercial）成長6%、全球企業（Global Corporate）成長10%，而GWIM客製化放款成長22%。

Within that performance, Global Banking, international commercial loans grew 15%. And further, we saw broad-based middle market growth across the commercial banking segments in key sectors, including real estate, sports, technology, health care and biopharmaceuticals.

在上述表現中，全球銀行業務的國際商業貸款成長15%。此外，我們也在關鍵產業看到商業銀行各分部的中型市場（middle market）廣泛成長，包括不動產、運動、科技、醫療保健與生物製藥。

In Consumer, card balances grew nearly 5% and while higher consumer real estate balances and small business growth were more than offset by lower auto balances. Securities-based lending and wealth management grew 21%. Importantly, the growth remains consistent with our underwriting standards and credit discipline. It also supported another strong quarter for net interest income, which we show on slide 9.

在消費金融方面，卡片餘額成長近5%；較高的消費者不動產貸款餘額與小型企業成長，已被較低的汽車貸款餘額所抵銷。以證券為擔保的放款與財富管理成長21%。重要的是，成長仍符合我們的承作標準與授信紀律。這也支撐了淨利息收入再度強勁的一季，我們在第9頁展示。

As I noted earlier, both net interest income of $16.6 billion, and the net interest yield were up strongly from both Q2 and a year ago. Fixed rate asset repricing and global markets activity both remain contributors. And commercial loans, card balances and deposits have increasingly been the ones driving the growth.

如我先前所述，淨利息收入166億美元與淨利息收益率，相較第二季及去年同期皆大幅上升。固定利率資產重定價與全球市場業務活動仍是主要貢獻來源。而商業貸款、卡片餘額與存款也愈來愈成為推動成長的關鍵。

Looking forward, we expect NII to improve sequentially in Q4 and again through 2027 based on anticipated modest loan and deposit growth and continued fixed rate asset repricing. This outlook also assumes 325 basis points rate increases through June of 2027, so in December '26, and March and June of next year.

展望未來，我們預期第四季NII將較前季改善，並在2027年前持續改善，基於預期貸款與存款溫和成長，以及固定利率資產持續重定價。此展望亦假設至2027年6月累計升息325個基點，也就是在2026年12月，以及明年3月與6月。

At Investor Day last year, we shared an expectation we would deliver 5% to 7% NII growth in the medium term. And during the course of 2026, we've raised that guidance first to 7% and then more recently to 8%, still expect to hit that full year revised NII growth guidance of approximately 8%. And for 2027, we currently expect full year growth of NII to be 8% or more higher than 2026 and again, higher than our original 5% to 7% range.

在去年投資人日，我們分享中期可達成NII成長5%至7%的預期。而在2026年期間，我們先將指引上調至7%，近期再上調至8%，仍預期可達成全年修正後約8%的NII成長指引。至於2027年，我們目前預期全年NII成長將較2026年高出8%或以上，且同樣高於我們原先的5%至7%區間。

Banking book remains asset sensitive. On a dynamic deposit basis, 100 basis points parallel shift above the forward curve would be expected to increase NII by $1.4 billion over the following 12 months, and that's a touch higher than the second quarter. Let me turn to slide 10, we see expense. We reported expense of $19.7 billion, and that included the $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge. Excluding that charge, adjusted expense was a little more than $18.5 billion, down nearly $100 million from Q2 and up slightly less than 7% from a year ago.

銀行帳簿仍對資產端較為敏感。以動態存款基礎衡量，若在遠期曲線之上出現100個基點的平行移動，預期在隨後12個月內可使NII增加14億美元，略高於第二季。接著看第10頁的費用。我們報告費用為197億美元，其中包含12億美元的監管和解費用。扣除該費用後，調整後費用略高於185億美元，較第二季減少近1億美元，較去年同期增加略低於7%。

The year-over-year increase reflected higher revenue-related costs in asset management and equities, including incentive compensation and wealth management and brokerage clearing and exchange costs and equities, respectively. We also invested in technology modernization, AI, client acquisition, marketing and franchise growth.

年增主要反映資產管理與股票業務中較高的與營收相關成本，包括激勵性薪酬，以及財富管理與經紀清算與交易所費用（分別對應財富管理與股票業務）。我們也投資於科技現代化、AI、客戶獲取、行銷與特許經營權成長。

At the same time, productivity continues to improve as evidenced by our headcount. Even as we add headcount in our sales forces, our headcount was down nearly 3,500 from a year ago as we automate processes and simplify work across the company. This means we don't need to hire quite as many people to refill roles. We remain focused on investing where we see the best long-term returns, while we continue to improve the productivity of the organization.

同時，生產力持續改善，從我們的人力規模即可看出。即使我們在銷售團隊增加人力，整體人數仍較去年減少近3,500人，因為我們推動流程自動化並在全公司簡化工作。這表示我們不需要雇用那麼多人來補足職缺。我們仍聚焦於投資在可帶來最佳長期報酬之處，同時持續提升組織生產力。

And we expect to return to operating leverage in Q4. From expense, let's move to credit quality on slides 11 and 12. And here, you can see the credit quality remains stable and, in fact, improved modestly once again this quarter. Provision expense was approximately $1.3 billion, lower than Q2, and the net charge-off ratio improved to 44 basis points. Consumer credit improved in line with expectations.

我們預期在第四季恢復營運槓桿。從費用轉到第11與第12頁的資產品質。在這裡你可以看到資產品質維持穩定，且本季再次小幅改善。提存費用約13億美元，低於第二季，淨沖銷比率改善至44個基點。消費者信用狀況如預期改善。

The 3.22% card loss rate improved from Q2 and along with delinquencies declined for the sixth consecutive quarter on a year-over-year basis. Commercial criticized assets declined to their lowest level on a rate basis since 4Q '19 and nonperforming loans also fell from Q2. Together, these trends continue to point to a healthy consumer and commercial client base and credit quality.

3.22%的卡片損失率較第二季改善，且連同逾期情況在年比基礎上已連續第六個季度下降。商業類被列為關注（criticized）的資產比率降至自2019年第四季以來最低水準，不良貸款亦較第二季下降。綜合而言，這些趨勢持續指向健康的消費者與商業客戶基礎及良好的資產品質。

With that credit backdrop, let's now turn to each business, beginning with Consumer Banking on slide 13. Consumer delivered another solid quarter, combining the organic client growth and disciplined execution with continued investment in the franchise. Revenue rose about 4% to $11.6 billion, net income increased about 2% to $3.5 billion.

在此信用背景下，接著我們檢視各項業務，先從第13頁的消費金融開始。消費金融再度交出穩健的一季，結合有機客戶成長與紀律執行，同時持續投資於特許經營權。營收上升約4%至116億美元，淨利增加約2%至35億美元。

Year-to-date results remain robust with revenue up 5% and net income up 10%. Year-over-year expense comparisons are tougher because we increased marketing beginning in the fourth quarter of '25, Head of new sponsorships and the relaunch of BofA Rewards with spending steady for the past four quarters.

年初至今的表現仍然強勁，營收成長5%，淨利成長10%。年比費用比較更具挑戰，因為我們自2025年第四季起提高行銷投入，新增贊助案的負責人，以及重新推出BofA Rewards，而支出在過去四個季度維持穩定。

We opened 14 financial centers this quarter and plan to open about another 20 or more by year-end. Since its May relaunch, BofA Rewards has enrolled nearly 6 million clients, deepening engagement across banking, cards and investments. And as a result of these investments, we've seen continued account openings and noninterest-bearing deposit growth, higher new card originations and card balance growth and higher digital engagement and client satisfaction. Business produced a 50% efficiency ratio and a 31% return on allocated capital.

本季我們新開設了14個金融中心，並計劃在年底前再開設約20個或更多。自5月重新推出以來，BofA Rewards 已吸引近600萬名客戶加入，深化了在銀行、信用卡與投資等領域的互動。而在這些投資帶動下，我們持續看到新開戶增加、無息存款成長、新發卡量與卡片餘額成長，以及更高的數位互動與客戶滿意度。該業務實現了50%的效率比率與31%的分配資本報酬率。

And in Consumer, it's our deposit franchise that remains a key strength with average deposits of about $949 billion, marking a sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. Noninterest-bearing deposits grew more than 4% while 59% of balances remained in checking accounts and 92% of those relationships were primary accounts. Consumer investment assets reached $664 billion, up 14% supported by market gains and about $18 billion of net flows over the past year.

在消費金融方面，我們的存款業務仍是關鍵優勢，平均存款約9,490億美元，連續第六季年增。無息存款成長超過4%，同時59%的餘額仍留在支票帳戶中，而其中92%的關係屬於主要往來帳戶。消費者投資資產達6,640億美元，年增14%，主要受市場上漲及過去一年約180億美元的淨流入支持。

Digital adoption reached new highs with over 50 million active users. 80% of consumer households are digitally active and digital channels generated 71% of sales. Erica, Zelle and AI-enabled tools are helping clients and helping employees to complete more activity faster and more consistently. That mix of relationship growth, digital engagement and disciplined execution continues to strengthen consumer banking.

數位採用率再創新高，活躍用戶超過5,000萬。80%的消費者家庭為數位活躍用戶，且數位通路貢獻了71%的銷售。Erica、Zelle 以及AI賦能工具正在協助客戶，也協助員工更快且更一致地完成更多作業。關係成長、數位互動與嚴謹執行的組合，持續強化消費金融業務。

Turning to Wealth Management now on slide 14. This business continued to improve profitability through strong client flows, positive operating leverage and higher margins. Revenue rose about 13% to $7.1 billion, and net income increased 22% to more than $1.5 billion. Pretax margin approached 29%, return on allocated capital reached about 28% and operating leverage was strongly positive as client activity and market levels lifted asset management fees and NII.

接著看財富管理，請看第14頁。該業務透過強勁的客戶資金流入、正向的營運槓桿與更高的利潤率，持續提升獲利能力。營收成長約13%至71億美元，淨利增加22%至超過15億美元。稅前利潤率接近29%，分配資本報酬率約28%，且在客戶活動與市場水準帶動資產管理費與淨利息收入（NII）上升下，營運槓桿顯著為正。

Client balances climbed above $5 trillion for the first time, up 9%, while AUM rose 12% to about $2.4 trillion. Quarterly net client flows were about $38 billion, including approximately $20 billion of AUM flows, bringing four quarter AUM flows to about $74 billion. Growth was broad-based. Merrill added about 4,200 net new households with at least $500,000 in assets, up 17%, and the Private Bank added 470 net new relationships with at least $3 million under management. These results reflect strong demand for advice and our ability to attract clients and experienced advisers to the platform.

客戶資產餘額首次攀升至5兆美元以上，年增9%，而管理資產（AUM）成長12%至約2.4兆美元。單季客戶淨流入約380億美元，其中約200億美元為AUM淨流入，使得近四季AUM淨流入約740億美元。成長動能相當廣泛。Merrill 新增約4,200戶淨新增家庭客戶（資產至少50萬美元），年增17%；私人銀行新增470個淨新增關係（管理資產至少300萬美元）。這些成果反映了對理財建議的強勁需求，以及我們吸引客戶與資深理財顧問加入平台的能力。

Banking relationships also deepened is now 67% of Merrill clients have banking relationships with us. Ending loans rose about 12% to more than $280 billion, led by securities-based lending, custom lending and mortgages. Private Bank lending has now grown for 12 consecutive quarters as clients use more of our investment and banking capabilities.

銀行往來關係也進一步加深，目前67%的 Merrill 客戶同時與我們建立銀行往來關係。期末貸款成長約12%至超過2,800億美元，主要由證券擔保融資、客製化融資與房貸帶動。私人銀行放款已連續12季成長，因客戶更多運用我們的投資與銀行能力。

Adviser productivity, disciplined pricing, digital engagement and AI tools continue to expand our capacity to deliver personalized advice at scale. And that sustained organic growth leads us to Global Banking on Slide 15. Global Banking segment benefited from strong loan and deposit growth and treasury activity, which helped offset softer investment banking results. Year-to-date, the Commercial Bank added more than 300 new companies and logos.

理財顧問生產力、嚴謹的定價、數位互動與AI工具，持續擴大我們以規模化方式提供個人化建議的能力。而這種持續的內生成長，帶我們進入第15頁的全球銀行業務。全球銀行業務受惠於強勁的貸款與存款成長及資金管理活動，有助於抵消投資銀行業務較疲弱的表現。年初至今，商業銀行新增超過300家新公司與新客戶標誌（logos）。

And in September, we launched a Gen AI tool designed to make prospecting and onboarding even more efficient. Revenue of $6.2 billion was relatively flat year-over-year, and net income was just under $2 billion, down modestly year-over-year. However, strong pipelines and the broader year-to-date performance put this quarter's investment banking results in context. Year-to-date, Global Banking revenue is up 5%. Net income is up 7% and the total company investment banking fees are up 16%. Turn on allocated capital was 15%, and balance sheet growth reflected the continued client momentum.

並且在9月，我們推出了一項生成式AI工具，旨在讓開發客戶與導入（onboarding）流程更有效率。營收62億美元，年比大致持平；淨利略低於20億美元，年比小幅下降。不過，強勁的案源管線以及年初至今的整體表現，為本季投資銀行業績提供了背景脈絡。年初至今，全球銀行業務營收成長5%。淨利成長7%，全公司投資銀行手續費成長16%。分配資本報酬率為15%，資產負債表成長反映客戶動能持續。

Average deposits rose 6% year-over-year to $669 billion. Average loans increased 8% to $419 billion and ending loans came in at $428 billion. Growth was broad-based across commercial and corporate clients. Treasury Services revenue increased 10% as we helped clients manage liquidity, payments and working capital while creating more opportunities across lending, investment banking and global markets.

平均存款年增6%至6,690億美元。平均貸款增加8%至4,190億美元，期末貸款為4,280億美元。成長廣泛分布於商業與企業客戶。資金管理服務（Treasury Services）營收成長10%，我們協助客戶管理流動性、支付與營運資金，同時在放款、投資銀行與全球市場等領域創造更多機會。

Total company investment banking fees, excluding self-led transactions, were about $1.8 billion. Fees declined from a strong year ago period driven by lower advisory and debt underwriting fees. Looking forward, our pipelines remained healthy. We continue to invest in bankers, technology and AI tools in an effort to improve research, preparation and opportunity identification.

全公司投資銀行手續費（不含自營主導交易）約18億美元。手續費較去年同期的強勁水準下降，主要因顧問與債務承銷手續費較低。展望未來，我們的案源管線仍維持健康。我們持續投資於銀行家、科技與AI工具，以提升研究、準備工作與機會辨識能力。

That broad client activity also supports global markets, which we cover on slide 16. And here, you can see solid results despite a tough comparison in our FICC credit businesses with slower trading activity this year. Excluding DVA, revenue was $5.8 billion, and net income was $1.2 billion, both down from Q3 2025. Even so the year-to-date performance remains a record for the firm, with revenue up 11% and net income up 14%.

這些廣泛的客戶活動也支撐了全球市場業務，我們在第16頁說明。在此可見，儘管今年交易活動較慢，且我們的FICC信貸業務面臨艱難的比較基期，仍取得穩健成果。不含DVA，營收為58億美元，淨利為12億美元，兩者均較2025年第三季下降。即便如此，年初至今的表現仍創公司紀錄，營收成長11%，淨利成長14%。

Sales and trading revenue, excluding DVA, was $5.1 billion, down 5% year-over-year. It was a record third quarter for equities, and it was a record third quarter for international revenue. Equities revenue rose 10% to $2.5 billion, led by prime financing and strong client activity. The results reflect our investments in talent, technology and financing capabilities over time.

銷售與交易營收（不含DVA）為51億美元，年減5%。股票業務創下第三季新高，國際營收也創下第三季新高。股票營收成長10%至25億美元，主要由主經紀融資（prime financing）與強勁的客戶活動帶動。這些成果反映了我們長期以來在人才、科技與融資能力上的投資。

PICC revenue was $2.5 billion, down 17%. FX and commodities benefited from increased client activity, lifting our macro businesses 4%. And that strength was more than offset by lower activity in mortgages, municipals and credit following a strong year ago period.

PICC 營收為25億美元，下降17%。外匯與大宗商品受惠於客戶活動增加，使我們的宏觀業務成長4%。然而，去年同期表現強勁後，今年房貸、市政債與信貸的活動較低，抵消了上述強勢。

The expense increase may seem counterintuitive given the revenue decline, but it reflects higher transaction costs tied to the equities growth particularly in prime financing and in Asia, reflecting our continued long-term investment and expansion. Average loans rose 5%, demonstrating stronger financing relationships and connectivity across markets Global Banking and Wealth Management. With the business segment's results covered, let's finish with all other and some closing thoughts on slide 17.

在營收下滑的情況下，費用增加看似反直覺，但主要反映與股票成長相關的較高交易成本，特別是在主經紀融資以及亞洲地區，這也體現我們持續的長期投資與擴張。平均貸款成長5%，顯示更強的融資關係，以及在市場、全球銀行與財富管理之間更高的連結性。各業務部門的結果已說明完畢，接著在第17頁以「其他」與一些結語作結。

All Other reported a loss of $1.4 billion, and that obviously includes the $1.2 billion regulatory settlement charge, which is not tax deductible. Excluding the regulatory settlement charge, all other shows a loss of $153 million compared with a loss of $103 million a year ago. The overall effective tax rate was 23%. And excluding the regulatory settlement charge, the adjusted effective tax rate was closer to 20%.

「其他」項目報告虧損14億美元，當中顯然包含12億美元的監管和解費用，且該費用不得稅前扣除。若排除監管和解費用，「其他」項目虧損為1.53億美元，去年同期虧損為1.03億美元。整體有效稅率為23%。若排除監管和解費用，調整後有效稅率更接近20%。

Let me close then with some key take aways from the quarter. Customers continue to spend, supporting a resilient US economy, while wealth clients brought in assets to us and relied on us for advice. Business clients kept spending, borrowing, investing and growing and institutional clients remain active globally, even though at a slower pace. Those trends were evident across the company and drove another solid quarter.

最後以本季幾項重點結論作結。客戶持續消費，支撐美國經濟展現韌性；同時財富管理客戶將資產帶入我們平台，並依賴我們提供建議。企業客戶持續支出、借款、投資與成長；機構客戶在全球仍保持活躍，儘管步調較慢。這些趨勢在全公司各處皆可見，並推動我們再度交出穩健的一季表現。

Our pipelines and our client conversations reflect the same confidence we have in the economy even as clients keep a close eye on geopolitical uncertainty. Our balance sheet and capital remains strong, and we continue to invest in technology and develop AI capabilities to support long-term growth. This quarter demonstrates the strength of our franchise and the value of our diversified business model.

我們的業務管道以及與客戶的對話，反映出我們對經濟同樣的信心，儘管客戶仍密切關注地緣政治不確定性。我們的資產負債表與資本仍然強勁，我們也持續投資科技並發展 AI 能力，以支持長期成長。本季展現了我們特許經營的實力，以及多元化商業模式的價值。

With that, I'll say thank you, and we'll stop now to take your questions.

說到這裡，謝謝大家，我們現在先停下來回答各位的提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Chris McGratty, KBW.

Chris McGratty，KBW。

Brian or Alastair, on the capital outlook, you talked about modest balance sheet growth. I'm wondering if you could dig into your assumptions between growth of the balance sheet and return of capital, balancing the CET1 and the TCE ratio?

Brian 或 Alastair，關於資本展望，你們提到資產負債表將溫和成長。我想請你們更深入談談你們對資產負債表成長與資本回饋之間的假設，如何在 CET1 與 TCE 比率之間取得平衡？

Sure. Well, first, I'd say if you look at the course of the year, we've obviously supported all of the client growth that we've seen with the capital that we generate. And if we look at where we stand today, we've obviously got a considerable amount of flexibility on capital, just recognizing that we're at 10.9% CET1 and a reg minimum of 10%. We also generate substantial capital.

當然。首先我會說，如果你看今年以來的走勢，我們顯然是用我們所產生的資本，來支持我們看到的所有客戶成長。而就我們目前的位置來看，我們在資本方面顯然有相當大的彈性，因為我們的 CET1 為 10.9%，而法規最低要求是 10%。我們也能產生可觀的資本。

So if you look at this quarter, for example, Chris, we supported $34 billion of loan growth. We obviously had a regulatory penalty. We saw rates go up 85 basis points. We paid an increased dividend, and we bought back $6 billion in shares. So we've got a lot of flexibility with the earnings that we generate to balance exactly what we've been doing through the course of this year and over the course of time.

以本季為例，Chris，我們支持了 340 億美元的貸款成長。我們顯然也承擔了一項監管罰則。我們看到利率上升了 85 個基點。我們提高了股利，並回購了 60 億美元的股票。因此，憑藉我們所產生的獲利，我們有很大的彈性，能在今年以來以及更長時間內，平衡我們一直在做的事情。

Always, our priority is going to be to support the clients and the growth. We know we have to support the regulatory minimum and the dividend. And then whatever is left, we're going to return to shareholders. So no change.

一如既往，我們的首要任務會是支持客戶與成長。我們知道必須滿足監管最低要求並支付股利。然後剩下的部分，我們會回饋給股東。所以沒有改變。

Okay. Great. And then on the operating leverage comment, Q4, I heard you there. But could we revisit 2027? You gave us a pretty good NII update. I think the guide at Investor Day was [200 to 300]. Any changes on how you're feeling about that going into next year?

好的，很好。另外關於營運槓桿的評論，第四季我有聽到你的說法。但我們能否回到 2027 年？你們給了我們相當不錯的 NII 更新。我記得投資人日的指引是 [200 到 300]。對於明年開始，你們對此的看法有任何改變嗎？

No, no change there. We've obviously had a very good first half. Q3 was slower. And we're back on creating operating leverage in Q4. I think as we get into Q4, Chris, I will likely provide guidance for next year, but it's not going to change. Based on what we see, it could be higher, but we'll see as we get closer.

沒有，沒有改變。我們上半年表現非常好。第三季較慢。而我們在第四季又回到創造營運槓桿。我想進入第四季時，Chris，我可能會提供明年的指引，但不會改變。依我們所見，可能會更高，但我們會在更接近時再看。

David Chiaverini, Jefferies.

David Chiaverini，Jefferies。

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to touch on the NII guide of 8%-plus looking out to next year. I was curious on the drivers behind the improvement. Is it all rate-driven, or is there anything else driving that improvement?

嗨，謝謝讓我提問。我想談一下展望到明年的 NII 指引 8% 以上。我好奇改善背後的驅動因素是什麼。這完全是利率驅動的嗎？還是還有其他因素在推動改善？

No, it's not all rates. Rates are obviously a small component of that. But same drivers as this year really, David. We've seen a little more normal deposit growth this year, and particularly where we've seen it is in noninterest-bearing. So if you look at the noninterest-bearing in Consumer or you look at the noninterest-bearing in Global Banking, that's returned to something a little more normal.

不，並不全是利率。利率顯然只是其中一小部分。但其實和今年的驅動因素相同，David。今年我們看到存款成長稍微回到較正常的水準，尤其是我們看到的是在無息存款（noninterest-bearing）。所以如果你看消費金融的無息存款，或看全球銀行業務的無息存款，都回到比較正常的狀態。

We'd always thought deposit growth should be in kind of the 4% to 5% range in a normal-type economy. And that's kind of where the noninterest-bearing is now on a year-over-year basis. So that's number one. Number two, the pricing rotation is slowing. So we've seen, for example, Consumer flatten out.

我們一直認為，在一個正常型態的經濟中，存款成長應該大約在 4% 到 5% 的區間。而目前無息存款在年增率的角度，大致就在那個水準。這是第一點。第二點，定價輪動正在放緩。例如，我們看到消費金融已經趨於持平。

It's now grown six quarters in a row, Wealth Management, same thing. The loan growth has kind of averaged $20 billion a quarter over the course of time. We don't see that slowing at this point in time. And then we've talked about how we benefit from fixed-rate asset repricing, most notably in the auto loan and the residential mortgage portfolios, but also in our mortgage-backed securities and our cash flow swaps.

它現在已經連續六個季度成長；財富管理也是一樣。貸款成長長期下來平均每季約 200 億美元。我們目前看不出有放緩的跡象。另外我們也談過，我們會受益於固定利率資產的重新定價，最明顯的是汽車貸款與住宅房貸投資組合，但也包括我們的抵押貸款支持證券以及現金流交換（cash flow swaps）。

And if anything, in the last quarter, we've just increased both floating-rate yields and fixed-rate yields. So do rates help us as we look into 2027? Yes. But it's the core underlying growth in deposits and loans that help us. And then I think that we have to recognize, in '27, if rates go up, we would expect Global Markets, it's liability-sensitive.

而且如果有什麼變化的話，在上一季我們其實同時提高了浮動利率收益率與固定利率收益率。所以當我們展望到 2027 年，利率會對我們有幫助嗎？會。但真正幫助我們的是存款與貸款的核心基本面成長。然後我想我們也必須認知到，在 2027 年，如果利率上升，我們預期全球市場業務（Global Markets）是負債敏感型（liability-sensitive）。

It's entirely possible that Global Markets will go down. But remember, we continue to add loans in Global Markets, and we continue to invest in Global Markets. So that will offset that just a little bit. The gains in banking are going to more than offset that. That's the core part. The core banking book is going to be stronger in 2027 than '26.

全球市場業務完全有可能會下滑。但請記得，我們仍持續在全球市場業務增加貸款，也持續投資全球市場業務。因此這會在一定程度上抵銷影響。銀行業務的增益將會遠遠超過那部分影響。那才是核心。核心銀行帳簿在 2027 年會比 2026 年更強。

Yes. To be precise, the 8% includes effectively a drag on Markets because it hasn't been growth for the last couple of quarters, it's been relatively flat. So it's an all-in number overcoming that, just to be clear.

是的，精確地說，這個 8% 的數字其實包含了市場業務的拖累，因為過去幾個季度它並沒有成長，而是相對持平。所以這是一個把那個因素也納入後的整體數字，為了說清楚。

Great. And on the consent order, are there any constraints? Or does this impede business operations in any way as we look forward?

很好。另外關於同意令（consent order），是否有任何限制？或者展望未來，它會以任何方式妨礙業務運作嗎？

Just repeat your question one more time. I'm sorry. I was writing a note to myself. Go ahead.

請你再重複一次你的問題。不好意思。我剛剛在寫筆記。請說。

Sure. Just on the consent order. Are there any constraints on the business? Does it impede your normal business operations at all?

好的。就同意令而言。對業務是否有任何限制？它會不會對你們正常的業務運作造成任何影響？

No, there's no asset cap here. So no, there's nothing there. And then in terms of it won't crowd out anything either because we've invested in the technology, and we've invested in the people that we feel like we need to get the work done. So that's in the run rate. We've made the decisions we need to. We've added the resources we feel like we need. So it should not impact our clients in any way.

不，這裡沒有資產上限（asset cap）。所以沒有，沒有那方面的限制。而且就不會排擠其他事情而言，因為我們已經投資了科技，也投資了我們認為完成這項工作所需要的人力。所以這已經反映在常態化費用水準（run rate）中。我們已經做出需要的決策。我們也增加了我們認為需要的資源。因此它不應該以任何方式影響我們的客戶。

Great. Thanks very much.

很好。非常感謝。

Manan Gosalia, Morgan Stanley.

Manan Gosalia，Morgan Stanley。

Hi, good morning. On the consumer side, you noted that consumers continue to spend and consumers are healthy. But maybe you can give us some more color on what you're seeing there with short rates moving higher, higher for longer, gas prices? Are you seeing any signs of pressure? And are there any changes that you're making at the margin in terms of where you're leaning in or leaning out?

嗨，早安。在消費者端，你提到消費者持續支出且狀況健康。但也許你可以更具體說明一下，在短端利率走高、利率在高檔維持更久、以及油價等因素下，你們觀察到的情況是什麼？你們有看到任何壓力跡象嗎？另外在邊際上，你們是否有做任何調整，例如在哪些領域更積極或更保守？

So I think you're -- let's separate two things. One, on the credit quality, our underwriting standards are consistent. The 5% growth in credit cards is with the same underwriting standards, and you can see the stats are very strong. The charge-offs there, 3%-change. So yes, we feel very good about that. Any other consumer loan quality metrics continue to be strong and improved. So in terms of seeing any stress on the consumer, absolutely not in terms of credit quality.

所以我認為你——我們把兩件事分開來看。第一，在信用品質方面，我們的承作（underwriting）標準是一致的。信用卡信貸成長5%是在相同的承作標準下達成的，而且你可以看到相關統計數據非常強勁。那裡的核銷（charge-offs）為3%——變動。所以是的，我們對此感到非常有信心。其他任何消費者貸款的資產品質指標仍然強勁且有所改善。因此，就消費者是否出現壓力而言，就信用品質來看，絕對沒有。

Then if you go to the balances in our accounts, they're growing. And when you look at the paychecks, the direct deposits coming from employers to our consumers, we see those growing across the three segments of income we have: low, medium and high, and we see the low having picked up. So that all bodes well.

接著如果你看我們帳戶中的餘額，它們正在成長。而當你看薪資，也就是雇主對我們消費者的直接存款（direct deposits），我們看到在我們的三個收入區間：低、中、高，都在成長，而且我們看到低收入族群的增速有所回升。所以這一切都預示著良好的趨勢。

When you go to actually what their activity is, as we said on the slide, it's 5% more spending this year than last year. And yes, gas spending is up 20%-odd. When you look at the credit and debit card spending only, that does crowd out, as you look at some of the online data, you can see the gas spending and the in-store spending is still growing in the convenience stores, but not quite at the rate that it was.

再看他們實際的活動，如同我們在投影片上所說，今年的支出比去年多5%。而且是的，汽油支出上升了約20%。當你只看信用卡與簽帳金融卡（debit card）的支出時，這確實會產生一些擠出效應；從一些線上數據來看，你可以看到汽油支出以及店內支出在便利商店仍在成長，但增速不如之前。

So it crowds out a little bit, but frankly, it's really different stories for different types of people in the overall positioning. The rest of the spending is very strong at the 5% level and on entertainment and other categories that you see there.

所以它會有一點擠出效應，但坦白說，對於不同類型的人而言，整體處境其實是不同的故事。其餘支出在5%的水準仍然非常強勁，包括娛樂及你在那裡看到的其他類別。

Got it. And then if you could give us some more color on the positive operating leverage for next year. What are the key drivers? Clearly, you're dropping more of the NII growth to the bottom line. So that's certainly a positive.

了解。另外，若你能就明年的正向營運槓桿（positive operating leverage）再多提供一些說明。關鍵驅動因素是什麼？顯然，你們把更多的淨利息收入（NII）成長落到最終獲利。所以那當然是正面的。

But if you could talk about some of the levers that you have on the expense side? And if you could clarify that the 200 to 300 basis points is on the adjusted expense number for 2026, excluding the settlement charge.

但你能否談談在費用端有哪些槓桿可以運用？以及能否釐清，200到300個基點是以2026年的調整後費用數字為基礎、並排除和解費用（settlement charge）？

Well, I think that's the best way to look at it because we wouldn't view that as being repeated. We view that as a one-time item. It's not a core operating expense. So I think you've got to adjust for that. But yes, we still feel like 200 to 300 basis points is generally speaking, the right kind of a zone.

我認為那是最好的看法，因為我們不會把那視為會重複發生的項目。我們把它視為一次性項目。它不是核心營運費用。所以我認為你必須把它調整掉。但沒錯，我們仍然覺得200到300個基點大致上是合適的區間。

We put that out for Investor Day through the medium term. We'll get into what we want to guide for 2027 when we get into the fourth quarter. But you've identified the first thing, which is NII growth. A lot of it drops straight to the bottom line, and that's really important. That's a very powerful driver for our company.

我們在投資人日（Investor Day）已針對中期提出這個目標。至於2027年我們希望如何給出指引，我們會在第四季再進一步說明。但你指出了第一點，也就是NII成長。其中很大一部分會直接落到最終獲利，這非常重要。這對我們公司而言是非常強而有力的驅動因素。

And then, obviously, we've got some terrific opportunities to continue to grow the fee businesses as we have consistently invested there. So we've got a good opportunity across the board, we feel like, whether it's Wealth, Global Banking and Global Markets, to keep driving the fee side. So that we feel good about.

然後，顯然，我們在持續投資的手續費業務（fee businesses）方面也有一些極佳的成長機會。因此我們覺得在各個面向都有不錯的機會，不論是財富管理（Wealth）、全球銀行（Global Banking）或全球市場（Global Markets），都能持續推動手續費收入端的成長。所以我們對此感到樂觀。

And then on the expense, we've got a pretty good track record of headcount management all the way through this year. So if you look at what we've done in terms of what's the main driver of expense for any business, 60% to 70% of it is headcount. We've done a nice job of managing headcount with discipline all year. We're going to maintain that management discipline into next year. That allows us to create the operating leverage that we're talking about.

至於費用方面，我們在今年一路以來的人力（headcount）管理有相當不錯的紀錄。所以如果你看我們所做的事，對任何業務而言，費用的主要驅動因素是什麼？其中60%到70%是人力。我們今年一整年都以紀律良好地管理人力。我們明年也會維持這樣的管理紀律。這讓我們能夠創造我們所談到的營運槓桿。

Final thing I'll just say is, we obviously benefit a great deal from the fact that we've got a Consumer Business, a Wealth Business, Small Business, medium-sized businesses, large businesses and investors. And the interconnectedness of those, the flows of business that go between them, is another thing we've highlighted at the Investor Day presentation and afterwards, and another area of additional growth for us that we continue to explore.

最後我想補充的是，我們顯然也大幅受益於我們同時擁有消費金融業務、財富管理業務、小型企業、中型企業、大型企業以及投資人。而這些之間的互聯性、彼此之間的業務流動，是我們在投資人日簡報以及之後所強調的另一點，也是我們持續探索的另一個額外成長領域。

Ben Gerlinger, Citi.

Ben Gerlinger，花旗（Citi）。

Just wanted to double-check. So you have the full year NII, and next year is also strong. And then you also say that noninterest-bearing deposit growth has been healthy. So are you kind of assuming that noninterest-bearing deposit growth continues to be healthy despite the three additional hikes your forward expectations include? And if so, can you also unpack some of the deposit betas you might be assuming in next year's NII?

我只是想再確認一下。所以你們有全年NII，而明年也同樣強勁。然後你們也說，無息存款（noninterest-bearing deposits）的成長一直很健康。那麼你們是否在某種程度上假設，即使你們的前瞻預期包含額外三次升息，無息存款成長仍會維持健康？如果是的話，你也能否拆解一下你們在明年NII中可能假設的存款貝他（deposit betas）？

Yes. So first, with respect to noninterest-bearing, yes, we're assuming low single digits for deposit growth broadly. And we're anticipating that we can continue to grow noninterest-bearing deposits as we have done over the course of the past year. Remember, whether rates go up by 25 basis points or not, at some point, noninterest-bearing deposits are impacted more by inflation and GDP. So we expect to see continued growth in noninterest-bearing deposits through the course of time.

是的。首先，關於無息存款，是的，我們假設整體存款成長為低個位數。而且我們預期可以像過去一年那樣，持續增加無息存款。請記住，不論利率是否再上升25個基點，在某個時間點，無息存款受到的影響更多來自通膨與GDP。因此我們預期無息存款會隨時間持續成長。

A lot of the rotation of rates took place when rates went from 25 basis points to 4.5%. We've been in that environment now for three or four years. There's been a lot of time for consumers and wealthy clients to sort of settle into that environment. So yes, we anticipate continued growth in our deposits.

利率的許多輪動發生在利率從25個基點升到4.5%的時候。我們現在已經處在那樣的環境三到四年了。消費者與高資產客戶有很多時間去適應並在那樣的環境中穩定下來。所以是的，我們預期我們的存款會持續成長。

In terms of deposit betas, obviously, we came from 4.5% down to [3.50%]. Over retracing steps, I would anticipate it will look the same going back up as it did coming down. The areas to watch continue to be, obviously, in Consumer, it's about CD pricing. In Wealth, we tend to pass along pricing with interest rate hikes and cuts.

就存款貝他而言，顯然，我們是從4.5%降到[3.50%]。在回溯（retrace）這些步伐時，我預期再往上走時的表現會和往下走時相同。需要持續關注的領域顯然是：在消費金融（Consumer）方面，重點在定存（CD）定價。在財富管理（Wealth）方面，我們通常會在升息與降息時把定價傳導出去。

And the same thing is true in Global Banking. When the Fed raises rates, we're typically passing that through to our clients. So there'll be no change in our perspective on the way back up as there was originally, nor in the way that we think about it on the way down. So no change there.

全球銀行（Global Banking）也是同樣的情況。當聯準會升息時，我們通常會把影響傳導給客戶。因此，無論是在回到升息循環時，或是在我們看待降息時，我們的觀點都不會改變。所以這方面沒有變化。

John McDonald, Truist Securities.

John McDonald，Truist Securities。

Brian, I was hoping you could give a little perspective in terms of the OCC and FinCEN orders. Like how it gets to this point? Is it kind of a misunderstanding of what regulators are asking for or disagreement on how to address the issues they're asking for in your processes? Just some perspective on how it comes about and your lessons learned or takeaways that we should have from this?

Brian，我希望你能就OCC與FinCEN的命令提供一些觀點。例如事情是如何走到這一步的？是對監管機構要求的內容有所誤解，還是對於如何在你們的流程中處理他們提出的問題存在分歧？想請你談談它是如何發生的，以及你們的經驗教訓或我們應該從中得到的重點是什麼？

Look, at the end of the day, I think we have agreed to call this a settlement and move forward, and so we are doing it. So I think at the end of the day, we understand what they need us to do. We're deep in the process of remediating. Just for example, this quarter, a couple of hundred million dollars plus in remediation costs for that effort. So it's been substantial, and thousands of employees.

你看，歸根結底，我認為我們已同意把這稱為一項和解（settlement）並向前推進，所以我們正在這麼做。所以我認為，最終我們理解他們需要我們做什麼。我們正在深入進行補救整改（remediation）的流程。舉例來說，本季僅就該項工作就有數億美元以上的整改成本。所以規模相當可觀，並且涉及數千名員工。

So we have a clear understanding of what we need to do. We're doing it. We'll complete it. And it is the focus of management to get it cleaned up. Beyond that, there's not a lot to talk about in terms of our processes and our capabilities, but we're busy working away and have been for the last several months and quarters.

所以我們對需要做什麼有清楚的理解。我們正在做。我們會完成。而管理層的重點就是把它清理到位。除此之外，就我們的流程與能力而言，沒有太多可談的，但我們一直忙著推進，過去幾個月與幾個季度都是如此。

This settlement resolves the penalty that was in the 2024 consent order, and that was what took time, is to kind of get the negotiations around all that. But the work started with pace back then. And it's something we built up and are going to do. And as we move forward, we'll get more efficient at it. And it will improve the operating dynamics.

這項和解解決了 2024 年同意令中的罰款，而真正花時間的，是把相關談判大致談妥。但當時工作就已加速啟動。這是我們逐步建立起來、也將會完成的事情。而隨著我們往前推進，我們會在這方面變得更有效率。這也將改善營運動態。

Okay. And then Alastair, that was helpful context on the levers you pulled for capital management this quarter. Just want to clarify, as you look ahead, what metrics you're going to be managing to and kind of which is governing. I think you're going to triangulate maybe? Is it CET1 of 11%-ish and then also triangulating to TCE of 6%-ish?

好的。接著，Alastair，你對本季資本管理所採取槓桿的說明很有幫助。我想再釐清一下：往前看，你們會以哪些指標作為管理目標、以及哪一個是主要約束。我想你們可能會做三角校準？是大約 11% 左右的 CET1，同時也三角校準到大約 6% 左右的 TCE 嗎？

Well, first thing we're going to do is wait for the final rules because we're anticipating those coming out in Q4. That will be important in terms of just clarifying exactly how and what we're calculating. I think it will also be helpful in terms of clarifying what the transition period looks like, John. So we just have to consider that as we see that later this quarter.

嗯，第一件事我們會先等最終規則，因為我們預期會在第四季公布。這對於釐清我們究竟如何計算、以及計算哪些項目很重要。我想這也有助於釐清過渡期會是什麼樣子，John。所以我們得等到本季稍晚看到之後再納入考量。

And then the reason that we look at both CET1 and tangible common equity is because we have a series of different constituencies, and we have to manage all of them. So it's important for us just to keep an eye on all of these various metrics. And we're balancing, at any given time, capital, liquidity and earnings as we make our decisions.

我們之所以同時看 CET1 與有形普通股權益（tangible common equity），是因為我們面對一系列不同的利害關係人，而我們必須管理所有這些面向。因此，對我們而言，持續關注這些不同指標很重要。而在做決策時，我們在任何時點都會在資本、流動性與獲利之間取得平衡。

But I'll go back to this point. We've got a lot of flexibility on capital right now. You saw what we could do in Q3. We generate a lot of capital. That gives us a lot of flexibility going forward. And our priorities remain the same.

但我回到這一點。我們目前在資本方面有很大的彈性。你們也看到我們在第三季能做些什麼；我們產生了大量資本。這讓我們在未來有很大的操作彈性。而我們的優先順序仍然不變。

Jim Mitchell, Seaport Global Securities.

Jim Mitchell，Seaport Global Securities。

Hey, good morning. Alastair, just on just thoughts, I appreciate the 2027 commentary on NII. And just it sounds like, and I just wanted to confirm, that it sounds like markets-related NII could be down from '26 levels, which would imply that ex-Markets NII should be north of 8%. I just wanted to confirm that.

嗨，早安。Alastair，關於一些想法：我很感謝你對 2027 年淨利息收入（NII）的評論。聽起來——我只是想確認——聽起來與市場相關的 NII 可能會低於 2026 年的水準，這意味著扣除 Markets 之後的 NII 應該會高於 8%。我想確認一下是否如此。

And then when I think about your commentary around operating leverage in the past, that if that flows to the bottom line, that, all else equal, does tend to push you towards the higher end of the operating leverage range. Not trying to put words in your mouth, but just trying to think through those puts and takes.

另外，回想你過去對營運槓桿的評論，如果這些效益能流到最終盈餘，在其他條件不變下，確實會把你推向營運槓桿區間的較高端。我不是要替你下結論，只是想把這些正反因素梳理清楚。

I agree with both broadly. I think both statements are probably true. The first one, in terms of yes, we'd anticipate Global Markets, in an environment where rates go up another three hikes, that's liability-sensitive, it is. But we just have to recognize we continue to add balance sheet there over time. So it just gets bigger, which tends to help NII.

我大致同意兩點。我想這兩個說法大概都成立。第一點，就「是的」而言，我們預期在利率再上升三次升息的環境下，全球市場（Global Markets）是負債敏感型（liability-sensitive），確實如此。但我們也必須認知到，我們會隨時間持續在那邊增加資產負債表規模。所以規模會變大，而這通常有助於 NII。

And then also, we're adding loans. So that matters also. In terms of Global Banking and the banking book broadly, yes, that would imply then that would grow faster than 8%. So I think you're right. And then second, yes, we intend to drop as much of this to the bottom line as we possibly can, and that tends to be very good for operating leverage.

另外，我們也在增加放款。所以這也很重要。就全球銀行（Global Banking）以及整體銀行帳簿而言，是的，那就意味著其成長會快於 8%。所以我想你說得對。第二點，是的，我們打算盡可能把這些效益落到最終盈餘，而這通常對營運槓桿非常有利。

But again, I don't want to get drawn into that right this second because we want to look at that as we go through the fourth quarter. Then I think we'll give guidance next year. But the point is, we're not coming off of our Investor Day expectations. And if you look at operating leverage over the course of the past couple of years, we've tended to do better year after year. We're positioned well for next year.

但同樣地，我現在不想立刻被拉進去細談，因為我們希望在第四季進行檢視。接著我想我們會在明年提供指引。但重點是，我們並沒有偏離投資人日（Investor Day）的預期。而如果你看過去幾年的營運槓桿，我們往往一年比一年做得更好。我們為明年做好了很好的準備。

Okay. Yes. Great. And then maybe just on FICC trading, you noted kind of higher rates hurt the macro businesses. Now, is that mostly negative marks, the slowdown of volume, because just trying to see if this pressure could linger? Or could we see a snapback if rates stabilize?

好的。是的，很好。那再談一下 FICC 交易：你提到利率走高會傷害宏觀業務。那主要是負面評價（negative marks）、成交量放緩，還是兩者都有？因為我想判斷這種壓力是否可能持續。或者如果利率穩定下來，我們會看到快速反彈嗎？

Yes. So generally speaking, we tend to benefit a lot from the fact that we're really big in credit, mortgages and munis. Those are great leading franchises for us. It just happens when rates go up 85 basis points in a quarter, that tends not to be good for those businesses. Clients tend to slow their activity.

是的。一般來說，我們受惠很大的一點是，我們在信用、房貸與市政債（munis）方面規模非常大。這些對我們而言都是非常強的領先型特許經營（franchises）。只是當一季內利率上升 85 個基點時，通常對這些業務不利。客戶往往會放慢活動。

It's not good for asset prices. So it's largely a client activity thing. We haven't seen the same kind of performance in, meaning we haven't seen rates behave the same way in Q4. So we're moving on to the fourth quarter, having gone through the third, and we retain leadership in those big businesses of ours.

這對資產價格也不利。所以主要是客戶活動的因素。我們在第四季並沒有看到同樣的表現——也就是說，我們沒有看到利率在第四季以同樣方式波動。所以我們進入第四季時，已經走過第三季，而我們在這些大型業務上仍保有領先地位。

Mike Mayo, Wells Fargo Securities.

Mike Mayo，Wells Fargo Securities。

In this period of AI and AI deployment, where can that take you guys? I see revenues per employee year-to-date are up 10%. And you would think with all the tools at your disposal that you'd be able to take that much higher. So I know I've asked this question before, but AI is moving so quickly. And I think the banks have to keep up so much that I thought I'd ask it again.

在 AI 與 AI 部署的這個時期，這能把你們帶到什麼程度？我看到今年迄今每位員工的營收上升了 10%。而你會以為，憑藉你們手上所有工具，應該能把這個數字拉得更高。所以我知道我以前問過這個問題，但 AI 進展非常快。而我認為銀行必須大幅跟上，所以我想再問一次。

So if you like, I think -- so one, just set the stage. If you look year-over-year, the total expense base was up $1.2 billion, and the headcount was down 3,000 round numbers. In the $1.2 billion, $450-or-so million of that is Wealth Management incentives with revenue growth.

如果你願意的話，我想——第一，先鋪陳一下背景。如果你看年對年，總費用基礎增加了 12 億美元，而員工人數大約減少了 3,000 人。在這 12 億美元之中，大約 4.5 億美元左右是財富管理（Wealth Management）因營收成長而增加的激勵費用。

About $300 million of it is in the Markets business, the BCE, and that leaves, say, $400 million left, of which a couple of hundred million plus in the third quarter were two things: remediation for the AML and remediation for the Mythos implementation. So there wasn't -- the overall expense growth absent that was a couple of hundred million dollars, maybe [3], on a base of, call it, [17] and change last year.

其中約 3 億美元是在 Markets 業務、BCE，而這樣算下來大概還剩 4 億美元；其中在第三季有兩三億美元以上來自兩件事：反洗錢（AML）整改，以及 Mythos 導入的整改。所以——若不含那些因素——整體費用成長大概是兩三億美元，可能是 [3]，相對於去年約 [17] 多一點的基礎。

So you think about that, how do we maintain that kind of 1%, 2% expense growth with all the investments we're making? We've opened five branches in Milwaukee this month and things like that, more headcount, client-facing. And that's by engineering, both through engineering process, through AI application, et cetera.

所以你想想看：在我們進行所有這些投資的同時，我們要如何維持那種 1%、2% 的費用成長？我們這個月在密爾瓦基開了五家分行之類的事情，增加更多人力、面向客戶。而這是透過工程化——不論是流程工程，或是 AI 應用等等——來達成的。

So you see it already in the numbers, and we expect it to continue going forward, and we expect that the Mythos remediation costs run down because we added 1,000 extra staff to work on that, not in the headcount, and I think consultants, as the orders get implemented. But what continues to recur will be that leverage you get from the core expense base.

所以你已經可以從數字上看出來，我們預期未來會持續如此；而且我們也預期 Mythos 補救（remediation）成本會逐步下降，因為我們額外增派了 1,000 名人員來處理這件事（不計入人力編制），並且我認為隨著各項指令逐步落地，顧問費用也會隨之下降。但會持續反覆出現的，是你從核心費用基礎所獲得的營運槓桿。

So AI has helped us. We're at about 130 projects implemented. All of them have a payback in the very detailed projects. None of them are huge contributors. Overall, the benefits are 2 to 3 times over time of the expense you're giving out. We expect that number to go from the $250 million, $300 million this year to $700 million next year in terms of projects we put in the pipeline.

所以 AI 確實幫了我們。我們大約已經落地了 130 個專案。這些非常細緻的專案全部都有回收期。沒有任何一個是巨大的貢獻來源。整體而言，隨著時間推進，效益大約是你投入費用的 2 到 3 倍。我們預期就我們放入管線的專案而言，這個數字會從今年的 2.5 億到 3 億美元，提升到明年的 7 億美元。

And (inaudible) key among those is in the development of technology, which is $4 billion and change a year. We're 10% more efficient. So next year, we get 10% more work for the same cost. And so we're going to continue to invest in driving the growth in the franchise, and AI is a major part of that, say, $300 million going to $700 million, headcount down by 3,000 or 1.5% year-over-year, managers down by about 5%, and production teammates that are doing the client-facing work are actually up year-over-year.

而（聽不清）其中的關鍵之一是在科技開發上，我們一年投入 40 億美元以上。我們的效率提升了 10%。所以明年在相同成本下，我們可以多做 10% 的工作量。因此我們會持續投資以推動特許經營（franchise）的成長，而 AI 是其中的重要部分：例如從 3 億美元提升到 7 億美元；人力編制年減 3,000 人或年減 1.5%；管理職人數約減少 5%；而從事面向客戶工作的前線同仁，年比年其實是增加的。

So we feel very good about the operating dynamics. And even the expense base we see grew in the third quarter, you can point to the things that are purely capital markets revenue-related items and/or things that will disappear over time from the expense base and be replaced by expense that does more for us.

所以我們對營運動能感到非常有信心。即使我們看到第三季費用基礎有所成長，你也可以指出其中一些純粹與資本市場收入相關的項目，和／或一些會隨時間從費用基礎中消失、並被對我們更有助益的費用所取代的項目。

All right. And then just a separate question. Brian, this is, I think, the 17th year of you being CEO. And I just was wondering about your thoughts on a successor. How much longer do you plan on remaining CEO? What qualities do you look for in a successor? And for a successor, would you look outside the firm? And why not, right?

好的。接著是一個不同的問題。Brian，我想這是你擔任 CEO 的第 17 年。我想請教你對接班人的看法。你計畫還要擔任 CEO 多久？你在接班人身上會看重哪些特質？而接班人方面，你會考慮從公司外部尋找嗎？以及為什麼不呢，對吧？

It's the Board's decision ultimately. Our job as management is to tee up the talent in this company, which there's a lot. We work on it all the time because I could get hit by a truck tomorrow too, Mike. So -- but this company's success is due to the 209,000 people out there working every day, and there'll be a great leader for it next, and the Board will make the decision when the time is there. But we feel very good about the team we have and the leadership we have in the company. You will be the first to know, Mike, when I decide that.

最終這是董事會的決定。我們管理團隊的工作，是把公司裡的人才準備好，而這裡的人才很多。我們一直在做這件事，因為我明天也可能被卡車撞到，Mike。所以——但這家公司的成功，來自外面每天努力工作的 209,000 名同仁；下一任也會有很棒的領導者，而董事會會在時機到來時做出決定。不過我們對目前的團隊與公司領導層非常有信心。Mike，當我決定那件事時，你會第一個知道。

Ken Usdin, Autonomous Research.

Ken Usdin，Autonomous Research。

Big picture question on the balance sheet. How so last one you talked about working on balance sheet efficiency. And it seems like the last couple of quarters, you've done what you said in terms of really taking down the wholesale funding part of the balance sheet with an offset in NIM.

一個關於資產負債表的大方向問題。上一次你談到正在提升資產負債表效率。而看起來過去幾個季度，你們確實如你所說，大幅降低了資產負債表中的批發融資（wholesale funding）部分，同時 NIM 也出現對應變化。

I'm just wondering if there are any offsets to that in terms of either how much you can make in trading as a result of that? Does it change your intermediation potential? And any other thoughts you have about kind of where the average earning assets goes from here in a totality perspective?

我想問的是，這樣做是否會有任何抵銷效果，例如因此在交易（trading）上能賺多少？這會改變你們的中介（intermediation）能力嗎？以及你對整體角度來看，未來平均生息資產（average earning assets）走向還有什麼想法？

Yes. So those are obviously two different decisions. The Markets business we're going to support with the balance sheet and the capital that they need to drive profitable growth. They've done an excellent job over the course of the past three or four years of growing and improving returns. Q2, I think, was a great example.

是的。所以這顯然是兩個不同的決策。我們會用資產負債表與資本去支持 Markets 業務，提供他們推動獲利成長所需的資源。過去三到四年，他們在成長與提升報酬方面做得非常出色。我認為第二季就是一個很好的例子。

It was a really extraordinary opportunity. We took advantage of that. We gave more capital because the returns were terrific in Q2. In Q3, the returns aren't quite the same. We don't have the same client activity going on. So Markets, we're going to keep investing in. We're going to keep giving balance sheet. We're going to keep supporting the clients because it's an important growth opportunity for us.

那是一個非常難得的機會。我們把握住了。因為第二季的報酬非常好，所以我們配置了更多資本。第三季的報酬就沒有那麼高。客戶活動也沒有同樣的熱度。所以對於 Markets，我們會持續投資。我們會持續提供資產負債表資源。我們會持續支持客戶，因為這對我們而言是重要的成長機會。

Second question is more just how do you manage short-term wholesale funding, and the direction of travel for us is down. Generally speaking, deposit growth plus paydowns of securities as they come due is there to support loan growth. And every time that deposits plus paydowns is greater than loans, it allows us to just pay down a little bit of short-term wholesale funding.

第二個問題比較是：你如何管理短期批發融資，而我們的方向是往下。一般來說，存款成長加上到期證券的回收（paydowns），用來支持放款成長。每當存款成長加上回收金額大於放款時，就讓我們可以再多償還一點短期批發融資。

So look, most of the NIM improvement is coming from repricings and profitable deposit and loan growth over time, and a little bit of it is short-term wholesale funding, but the two things are separate. They're not linked in any way.

所以你看，NIM 的改善大多來自重新定價（repricings），以及隨時間推進的、具獲利性的存款與放款成長；其中有一小部分來自短期批發融資，但這兩件事是分開的。它們彼此沒有任何連結。

Okay. And if I could come back -- go ahead, Brian.

好的。如果我可以再追問——請說，Brian。

I was just going to add to that. Think about a 15-basis-point improvement from 2% to 2.15%. So that's 15 basis points on a 2% improvement on the $3 trillion balance sheet. That's the efficiency Alastair is describing coming through. So you're replacing low-yielding securities with much higher-yielding commercial loans and consumer loans. You also end up with deposit growth, with 5% noninterest-bearing and overall a couple of percent. So your mix is even improving there.

我只是想補充一下。想像一下 NIM 從 2% 提升到 2.15%，也就是改善 15 個基點。這是在 3 兆美元資產負債表規模上、以 2% 為基礎的 15 個基點改善。這就是 Alastair 所描述的效率提升正在反映出來。所以你是在用收益率很低的證券，去替換成收益率高得多的商業放款與消費者放款。同時你也會看到存款成長，其中無息存款（noninterest-bearing）成長 5%，整體存款也成長了幾個百分點。所以你的組合（mix）在那裡也在改善。

And to your colleague's question a while back, because your rate deposits and low-interest savings and checking are zero in any environment for weighted growth, and the deposit balances keep growing irrespective of the higher-rate environment. So that dynamic is really why we see this march from [2.15%] towards [2.30%] really just taking place as we look out over the next several quarters here.

另外回到你同事先前的問題，因為你的計息存款與低利率的儲蓄、支票存款，在任何環境下就加權成長而言都接近零，而存款餘額不論在較高利率環境下仍持續成長。所以正是這個動態，讓我們看到 NIM 從 [2.15%] 朝 [2.30%] 的推進，確實會在接下來幾個季度逐步發生。

That's a really important dynamic because if you go back to the 6% TCE ratio, that gives you a chance to really push the returns on a relative size that gets you to 16%, et cetera. So that's what we've been working at, is that efficient balance sheet because of the dynamics we are in. As liquidity, we pushed the size up, and now we're bringing it back down.

這是一個非常重要的動態，因為如果你回到 6% 的 TCE 比率（有形普通股權益比率），就有機會在相對規模下把報酬推升到 16% 等等。所以我們一直在努力的，就是在我們所處的這些動態之下，打造更有效率的資產負債表。在流動性方面，我們先把規模推上去，現在再把它拉回來。

The Markets business has a balance sheet they need to run the business. They can have more if they put it to work for good returns. That's completely unrelated to that efficiency we can get for the rest of the balance sheet.

Markets 業務有其經營所需的資產負債表規模。如果他們能把更多資產負債表資源用在取得良好報酬上，他們也可以拿到更多。這與我們在資產負債表其餘部分所能取得的效率提升完全無關。

Okay. Understood. And then just coming back to the third-quarter Markets results, as you mentioned, Alastair, just that there weren't as many opportunities. One of the peers yesterday talked about that fourth quarter could still be down meaningfully for them sequentially just based on what normal seasonality is.

好的，了解。那再回到第三季 Markets 的結果，如你提到的，Alastair，機會沒有那麼多。昨天有一家同業提到，第四季基於正常季節性，他們的表現可能仍會較前一季明顯下滑。

So I know this might not have been like the typical quarter, but can you just help provide any perspective on what you think versus the [5.1] in the third quarter? What your overall view of Markets might be for the fourth quarter, just given what happened in the third and what normal seasonality might do in the fourth?

所以我知道這一季可能不像典型的季度，但你能否就你對第三季[5.1]的看法，提供一些比較上的觀點？考量第三季發生的情況以及第四季可能出現的正常季節性因素，你對第四季整體市場業務的看法是什麼？

Yes. So we tend not to guide for any quarter in Markets, recognizing that it's very, very challenging to forecast that business in particular. Third quarter, as I mentioned, we were obviously hurt by our mix. We have strength in credit, mortgages and munis. So you'd sort of think if that was an extreme bear market for a quarter, that moderates, which it has done through the first couple of weeks.

是的。我們通常不會對市場業務的任何單一季度提供指引，因為我們也知道，這項業務特別、非常非常難以預測。第三季，如我提到的，我們顯然受到業務組合的影響。我們在信用、房貸與市政債（munis）方面有優勢。所以你大概會認為，如果那是一個季度的極端熊市情境，之後會趨於緩和，而在前幾週確實已經有所緩和。

We wouldn't see the same impact in the fourth quarter. Fourth quarter obviously has seasonality, but those two may offset one another. And at the end of the day, the Markets business has done a really nice job of 17 or 18 quarters in a row of year-over-year growth. So they're looking forward to the fourth quarter.

我們不會在第四季看到同樣的影響。第四季當然有季節性，但這兩者可能會互相抵銷。而且歸根結底，市場業務已經連續17或18個季度實現年對年成長，表現非常出色。所以他們對第四季抱持期待。

We're looking forward to the fourth quarter. I think there'll probably be less seasonality this year than in prior years just based off of the way the third quarter turned out. But we don't predict because we're not great at predicting Global Markets performance in any quarter.

我們也期待第四季。我認為今年的季節性影響可能會比往年小一些，主要是因為第三季的走勢所致。但我們不做預測，因為我們並不擅長預測任何單一季度的全球市場業務表現。

That's good color. I appreciate that, Alastair.

這些說明很有幫助。謝謝你，Alastair。

Matt O'Connor, Deutsche Bank.

Matt O'Connor，德意志銀行。

It seems like the loan growth accelerated towards the end of the quarter, both based on the (inaudible) data that we can all see and then also your spot loan growth was a lot stronger than average. Anything to read into that beyond just kind of quarter-end noise?

看起來貸款成長在季度末加速了，這不僅從我們都能看到的（聽不清）數據可見，而且你們的即期（spot）貸款成長也明顯強於平均。這是否有任何值得解讀之處，還是只是季末的雜訊？

No, I don't think there is. The H.8 data bounces around, as you can see. And we have things like lending to warehouse mortgage lenders that go up and come down. But if you sort of get away from that kind of volatility, the really core aspects being middle market grew across the board in most of its segments, and the Business Banking franchise, which the team's done a good job, our team has done a good job getting to grow again. It's balanced. Small Business grows, the credit card group, those are, they may come in ebbs and flows, but generally, they stick-to-your-ribs-type growth.

不，我不認為有。如你所見，H.8數據會上下波動。而且我們有一些項目，例如對房貸倉儲型放款機構（warehouse mortgage lenders）的放款，會上升也會下降。但如果你把這類波動因素排除，真正核心的部分是：中型市場（middle market）在其多數細分領域都全面成長；以及商業銀行（Business Banking）業務線——團隊做得很好，我們的團隊也做得很好——已經重新回到成長軌道。整體是均衡的。小型企業成長、信用卡團隊也是如此；它們可能會有起伏，但整體而言屬於那種「很扎實、能持續累積」的成長。

And so that sets us up nicely for next quarter. The business can come in and out of more of the high-end businesses because a bridge loan gets taken out or the warehouse stuff. So a lot of that volatility is around that. In the core businesses, it just keeps coming out each month, which is terrific.

因此，這讓我們為下一季打下很好的基礎。業務量可能會在一些高端業務之間進出，因為像是過橋貸款（bridge loan）被償還，或倉儲相關業務的變動。所以很多波動都來自這些因素。但在核心業務上，每個月都持續貢獻增量，這非常好。

Okay. And then a bigger-picture question. As we think about this rising-rate environment and the deposit betas, I feel like a lot of banks are assuming it's similar to what we saw a few years ago when rates went up.

好的。接著是一個更宏觀的問題。當我們思考升息環境與存款貝塔（deposit betas）時，我覺得很多銀行都假設它會類似於幾年前利率上升時的情況。

But I also thought the loan and deposit environment is totally different because in the last environment, when rates were going up, loans were paying down, and everybody had excess deposits. And now loan growth is quite solid.

但我也認為，貸款與存款的環境完全不同，因為在上一個利率上升的環境中，貸款是在下降（paying down），而且大家都有過剩存款。而現在貸款成長相當穩健。

And I think most people are expecting it to continue, and everyone wants to fund it with deposits. So I guess the long-winded question is, isn't there a risk that deposit pricing picks up more than maybe you and others have assumed just because of more loan growth and therefore more deposit competition?

而且我想大多數人都預期它會持續，大家也都想用存款來支應（fund）這些成長。所以我這個冗長的問題是：是否存在一個風險——由於貸款成長更強、因此存款競爭更激烈——導致存款定價上升幅度可能比你們以及其他人原先假設的更大？

I think Alastair mentioned earlier, we have $2 trillion in deposits and $1.2 trillion in loans. So there is a lot of room to grow loans without thinking about needing to raise money to fund them. And within that, we have that really all sitting in cash, short-term securities, and then the held-to-maturity portfolio is running off.

我想Alastair先前提到，我們有2兆美元的存款與1.2兆美元的貸款。因此，在不需要考慮為貸款籌資的情況下，我們仍有很大的空間去擴張貸款。而在這之中，我們的資金基本上都放在現金、短期證券，另外持有至到期（held-to-maturity）投資組合正在自然到期縮減（running off）。

So each day, week, month, we have $9 billion a quarter to $36 billion a year just out of the mortgage payoffs, which are holding constant. And so there's plenty of cash to fund up the loan balance. You look year-over-year, you can see that in the balance sheet growth. So there's a lot of room in us. We are far different from most people because we're $2 trillion and $1.2 trillion. That loan-to-deposit ratio is far less.

所以每天、每週、每個月，僅就房貸提前償還（mortgage payoffs）而言，我們每季大約有90億美元、每年約360億美元的現金流入，而且這個水準大致維持不變。因此有充足的現金可以支應貸款餘額的增加。你看年對年，就能在資產負債表成長中看到這一點。所以我們自身有很大的空間。我們與多數同業非常不同，因為我們是2兆對1.2兆。這個貸存比（loan-to-deposit ratio）低得多。

And so, as Alastair said, we ran off high-rate funding. We placed CDs from our clients' money in other people. So we take our clients' money who want higher rates, and we give it to banks who pay them higher rates because they need the funding. So it's just not something we need to reach for.

因此，如Alastair所說，我們已經縮減了高利率的資金來源。我們把客戶資金所購買的定存單（CDs）配置到其他銀行。也就是說，我們把想要更高利率的客戶資金，交給那些願意支付更高利率、因為他們需要資金的銀行。所以這不是我們需要去積極爭取的事情。

And I think, leave aside rates down a little bit, up a little bit, the nominal rate environment, if you think about it across the last few years, we're growing deposits from a low of [1.8], I think after post-pandemic, to [1.85], something like that, up to $2 trillion-plus. The pricing discipline has remained. And if you look at the deposits slide, whatever, slide 7, you see it's 149 basis points in an environment which is 3.5%, 4% around you.

而且我認為，先不談利率小幅下或小幅上，若從過去幾年的名目利率環境來看，我們的存款從疫情後的低點約[1.8]兆（我記得是這樣），到[1.85]兆左右，成長到2兆美元以上。定價紀律一直都維持住。如果你看存款那張投影片，不管是第7頁之類的，你會看到在周遭利率約3.5%、4%的環境下，我們是149個基點。

So this is core money and movement in core transactional accounts for consumers, small businesses, and wealthy clients that is growing and very stable. So we don't see the dynamic because we have a lot of room to grow loans without having any pressure to raise funds for them.

所以這是核心資金，來自消費者、小型企業與高資產客戶的核心交易型帳戶（core transactional accounts）的資金流動，持續成長且非常穩定。因此我們看不到你所說的那種動態，因為我們有很大的空間在不承受為貸款籌資壓力的情況下擴張貸款。

We have a lot of runoff of fixed-rate assets that can help fund that. And on top of that, the deposits grow and they're very advantaged. So 149 basis points against the current rate environment is a pretty good place to be. And then on top of that, what's different for us than most, if not all, competitors is the efficiency on the consumer side relative to that deposit base, so that cost of deposits. That gives us a chance to make money on a consumer that is very strong.

我們也有大量固定利率資產的自然到期縮減（runoff），可以協助提供資金來源。此外，存款仍在成長，而且條件非常有利。所以在目前的利率環境下，149個基點是一個相當不錯的位置。再加上，與大多數（甚至所有）競爭對手不同的是，我們在消費金融端相對於這個存款基礎的效率，也就是存款成本（cost of deposits）。這讓我們有機會在消費者業務上賺到非常可觀的利潤。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

Erika Najarian，瑞銀（UBS）。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for squeezing me in. I just want to apologize in advance. I have three questions. I'm going to ask short questions, but I think it's important given the stock opened down 8%. Number one, just a clarification question on NII ex-Markets.

嗨，早安。謝謝你讓我插進來提問。我先道歉一下。我有三個問題。我會問得很短，但我認為這很重要，因為股價開盤下跌了8%。第一個問題，是關於不含市場業務的淨利息收入（NII ex-Markets）的釐清。

Alastair, given your comments on Markets NII being down, I would essentially assume that core NII would be up around 10% year-over-year in 2027, in line with what JPMorgan said yesterday. Is that about the right geography?

Alastair，根據你提到市場業務NII下滑的評論，我基本上會推論核心NII在2027年年對年大約會成長10%，與摩根大通昨天所說的一致。這樣的區間大致正確嗎？

Well, look, we don't guide. I was asked to -- we don't guide the two differently and independently for a variety of different reasons. I was asked the question earlier, do you think Global Markets could be down next year with respect to three or four rate hikes, one that just happened, three to come?

嗯，你看，我們不提供指引。基於多種不同原因，我們也不會把這兩者分開、各自獨立地提供指引。先前有人問我：你是否認為在明年有三到四次升息的情境下——其中一次已經發生，還有三次可能會來——全球市場業務可能會下滑？

The answer to that is yes because it's liability-sensitive. But again, I'm just reminding people they continue to add loans, and we're likely to just continue adding balance sheet. So the Markets piece, yes, may be down. So that 8% is including Markets. So that would tell you that the number is likely higher for the core banking book.

答案是肯定的，因為它對負債端較為敏感。但再說一次，我只是提醒大家，他們仍在持續增加放款，而我們很可能也會持續擴大資產負債表。所以市場業務（Markets）那一塊，是的，可能會下滑。因此那個 8% 是包含 Markets 在內的。所以這會告訴你，核心銀行帳簿（core banking book）的數字很可能更高。

But we don't break it out because things move around and they go between, and we manage it for the entire company. So I think directionally, that's how you should think about it. And we may provide more guidance around what the exact number looks like as we get into Q4. We're probably not going to break it out between the two.

但我們不會把它拆開，因為項目會移動、會在不同部分之間流轉，而我們是以整個公司層面來管理。所以我認為從方向性來看，你應該這樣理解。而當我們進入第四季時，可能會就確切數字的樣貌提供更多指引。我們大概不會把它在兩者之間拆分。

And the second question is down 7% implies, I think, to the market that this is more than just the results, that there's sort of a confidence issue perhaps deepened by the consent order. I guess, a compound question, and I apologize. One, are there any incremental expenses that we should expect coming out of the third-party review that needs to happen?

第二個問題是，下跌 7% 我想對市場而言意味著這不只是業績結果，可能還有某種信心問題，而同意令（consent order）可能加深了這種疑慮。我想這是一個複合式問題，先說聲抱歉。第一，第三方審查需要進行，從中會不會產生任何我們應該預期的額外費用？

I appreciate that this has been an issue since the consent order in December 2024. And given that expenses have come in higher than expected, what would give you -- how would you instill confidence in investors that you could do the high end of 300 basis points of operating leverage next year, much less 200 to 300 basis points?

我理解自 2024 年 12 月的同意令以來，這一直是個問題。而且在費用高於預期的情況下，什麼會讓你——你會如何讓投資人對你們明年能做到 300 個基點營運槓桿的高端目標有信心，更不用說 200 到 300 個基點？

Okay. So look, on the expense, I think we tried to be as clear as we possibly can. We've ramped up significantly the people required to handle the consent order work. We've been working on that for some time now. We've also tried to be clear that we've ramped up the technology spend required.

好的。你看，關於費用，我想我們已盡可能清楚說明。我們已大幅增加處理同意令相關工作的所需人力。我們已經做這件事一段時間了。我們也試著清楚表達，我們已提高所需的科技支出。

So we feel like that is in the run rate. And just remember, Erika, we started the year with 3,000 more heads than we have currently, just to give some idea. So we've been able to do that with all of this going on underneath the surface by repositioning people with the productivity gains we've seen.

所以我們覺得這些已反映在目前的常態化費用水準（run rate）中。而且請記得，Erika，我們年初的人頭數比現在多 3,000 人，提供一個概念。因此，即便在檯面下同時發生這些事情，我們仍能透過所見到的生產力提升，把人力重新配置而做到這點。

So the expense side, I think, still holds together there. The operating leverage we've said we intend to deliver 200 to 300 basis points through the medium term. We haven't changed from that. And I think as we get into Q4, I'll give you a better sense for what that looks like in 2027.

所以在費用面，我認為整體仍然站得住腳。至於營運槓桿，我們說過我們打算在中期交付 200 到 300 個基點。我們沒有改變這個說法。我想等我們進入第四季時，我會讓你更清楚了解 2027 年看起來會是什麼樣子。

And finally, on the capital. On January 1, 2027, you're set to step up in G-SIB surcharge, which would raise your minimum to [10.50%]. As we think about your shareholders have enjoyed about $6 billion in buybacks per quarter and it's been supportive of the stock. As we think about the intersection of strong capital generation, sort of a TCE constraint at 6%, and that G-SIB surcharge step-up with the potential for reform to be finalized, how should we think about how your -- is it business as usual in buybacks over the near term close to that $6 billion number? Or are we waiting for the finalization of G-SIB to see whether or not they'll treat your G-SIB surcharge calculation only prospectively or retroactively to prevent that step-up?

最後談資本。在 2027 年 1 月 1 日，你們的 G-SIB 附加資本要求（surcharge）將上調，會把你們的最低要求提高到 [10.50%]。考量到你們股東每季約享有 60 億美元的庫藏股回購，且這對股價有支撐；再考量強勁的資本生成、約 6% 的 TCE 限制，以及這次 G-SIB 附加要求上調、同時改革可能定案——我們應該如何看待你們的回購？短期內是否仍照常、接近每季 60 億美元的水準？還是要等 G-SIB 最終定案，看看他們會把你們的 G-SIB 附加要求計算方式視為僅具前瞻性（prospective）或追溯適用（retroactive），以避免那次上調？

All right. So there's a lot to unpack there. We don't guide on share buybacks for lots of different reasons. It's definitely business as usual in terms of how we think about that equation, with one exception. We need to wait for the final rules. So I know we're all desperate for the final rules.

好。這裡面有很多需要拆解。我們不對股票回購提供指引，原因有很多。就我們如何看待那個方程式而言，確實是照常運作（business as usual），只有一個例外。我們需要等待最終規則。我知道大家都非常渴望最終規則。

I'm desperate for the final rules, but we don't have them yet. We need to understand, first, what are the rules? How is it going to work? And then we need to understand the transition period. I think in your question, there's an assumption that the current, which will soon be the old rules, prevail around where capital might go. That may be the case, that may not be the case. We have to wait, and we have to see.

我也很渴望最終規則，但我們還沒有拿到。我們需要先了解：規則是什麼？它會如何運作？然後我們還需要了解過渡期安排。我想你的問題裡有個假設：目前（很快就會變成舊的）規則，會主導資本可能走向哪裡。那可能是，也可能不是。我們必須等待，必須看看。

That having been said, if you look at this quarter, again, what did we manage to do? Well, we're looking at both tangible common equity and CET1. We've got plenty of flexibility on the CET1 number because we're 90 basis points above the regulatory minimum. And in tangible common equity, just think about it, this quarter, rates went up 85 basis points.

話雖如此，如果你看本季，再次回到我們做到了什麼？我們同時看有形普通股權（tangible common equity）與 CET1。我們在 CET1 數字上有很大的彈性，因為我們比監管最低要求高出 90 個基點。而在有形普通股權方面，你想想看，本季利率上升了 85 個基點。

We dealt with a regulatory penalty at the end of the quarter. We added $34 billion of loans to support our clients, paid the dividend and bought back $6 billion in shares. That gives you a sense for just how capital-generative this company is every quarter. So none of that changes, Erika. We just have to see how the quarter develops. We have to wait for the final rules.

我們在季末承受了一項監管罰款。我們新增了 340 億美元的放款以支持客戶，支付了股利，並回購了 60 億美元的股票。這讓你感受到這家公司每一季的資本生成能力有多強。所以這些都不會改變，Erika。我們只是必須看看本季如何發展。我們必須等待最終規則。

Thank you for taking all my questions.

謝謝你回答我所有問題。

Scott Siefers, TD Cowen Securities.

Scott Siefers，TD Cowen Securities。

Thanks, guys. I appreciate you taking the question. I know you've touched on the IB outlook, at least a bit. I was hoping maybe just a little more. It's been such a strong year in the aggregate, but I think we're all fixated on this more recent pause in activity.

謝謝，各位。感謝你們讓我提問。我知道你們已經稍微談到投資銀行（IB）的展望。我希望能再多一點。整體而言今年非常強勁，但我想大家都把注意力放在近期活動的暫停上。

Can you sort of speak to either what you all are discussing internally or with clients regarding anything that would kind of help distinguish between what's just hopefully a temporary pause and, as we all adjust to higher rates, something that might prove potentially more lasting?

你們能否談談，不論是你們內部討論的內容，或與客戶交流時的看法，有沒有什麼能幫助區分：哪些只是希望屬於暫時性的停頓；以及在我們都適應更高利率之際，哪些可能會變得更持久？

Well, the starting point is just to remind ourselves that after nine months, our investment banking fees are up 16% year-to-date. So the activity level, generally speaking, is pretty good. Is the third quarter a little softer than the second? Yes, a little. Does a move in interest rates of the magnitude that we saw impact transactional activity from our clients? Yes, that does happen.

嗯，首先要提醒自己的是，九個月過後，我們的投資銀行費用年初至今上升了 16%。所以整體來說，活動水準相當不錯。第三季是否比第二季稍微弱一些？是的，稍微。我們看到那種幅度的利率變動，是否會影響客戶的交易活動？是的，確實會發生。

And obviously, there's a period in volatility like that where buyers and sellers just need to readjust valuations and expectations. So that always happens. But if you look at our businesses generally, we can see from the loan growth activity across the commercial side that the CapEx cycle continues. We know from the investment banking pipelines that they remain strong, and our team added more in the way of pipeline in the quarter.

而且很明顯，在那樣的波動期間，買方與賣方需要重新調整估值與預期。所以這總是會發生。但如果你看我們的業務整體，從商業端的放款成長活動可以看到，資本支出（CapEx）循環仍在持續。我們也從投資銀行的案源管線（pipeline）得知它們仍然強勁，而我們團隊在本季也新增了更多管線。

So it feels to us like clients all around the world are active. We've got a good US economy supported by the consumer and by the AI CapEx. And there's, underneath that, a lot of capital requirement from these AI companies and the whole environment that surrounds them. We've been a very active participant in that.

所以我們的感受是，全球各地的客戶都很活躍。美國經濟表現良好，受到消費者與 AI 資本支出（AI CapEx）的支撐。而在這之下，AI 公司以及其周邊整個生態環境都有大量的資本需求。我們一直是其中非常積極的參與者。

So we remain optimistic on investment banking. We've got a world-leading franchise in capital markets. I think we were third in announced M&A in the third quarter. So that tends to mean good things going forward. So we're pretty constructive, and we'll see how the fourth quarter develops.

因此，我們對投資銀行業務仍然保持樂觀。我們在資本市場擁有全球領先的特許經營優勢。我認為我們在第三季已宣布的併購（M&A）排名第三。因此，這通常意味著未來會有好的發展。所以我們相當正向，也會看看第四季的發展情況。

Perfect. I appreciate that. I think that should do it for me. So thank you very much.

很好。我很感謝。我想我這邊就到這裡。非常謝謝。

Steven Chubak, Wolfe Research.

Steven Chubak，Wolfe Research。

Hi, good morning, and thanks for squeezing me in here. Maybe to start, Brian, I was hoping you could address some of the recent concerns on using agentic AI as potentially driving more yield-seeking behavior, the potential risk of flight for more idle consumer deposits?

嗨，早安，謝謝讓我插進來提問。也許先從這裡開始，Brian，我希望你能回應近期一些疑慮：使用代理式（agentic）AI 可能會驅動更多追求收益的行為，以及對較為閒置的消費者存款可能出現外流的風險？

And whether you can create barriers that actually explicitly preclude agentic access, which could potentially help dampen the pace of sorting activity while also providing some additional layers of security to your customers as well.

以及你們是否能建立一些障礙，明確排除代理式存取，這可能有助於放緩資金重新分配（sorting）活動的速度，同時也能為客戶提供額外的安全防護層。

I think those are two different questions. One is we're working with various agent providers and others. We've likely worked with some of the aggregators to make sure that the customer is in control of the decision, the human remains in the loop before money is moved out of their account and items like that.

我認為這是兩個不同的問題。第一個是，我們正在與各種代理提供者以及其他夥伴合作。我們也很可能已與部分聚合商合作，以確保客戶能掌控決策，在資金從其帳戶移出之前，仍由人類介入（human remains in the loop），以及諸如此類的安排。

So that's safety and security. Look, the banking system has been the source of transactional accounts for people forever, and that safety and security people have, knowing they can make a payment, it will go through the system, it will be credited to the person they're making the payment to, they can receive payments, they have access 24/7, they can send money out, Zelle payments, et cetera, all of the time.

這屬於安全與保障。你看，銀行體系一直以來都是人們交易性帳戶的來源，而人們所擁有的那種安全感與保障感——知道他們可以付款、款項會透過系統完成、會入帳到收款人，他們也能收款、可 24/7 存取、可隨時匯出資金、Zelle 轉帳等等——一直都是如此。

They can do wires right from their phone. But it's all safe and secure in the environment. And I think that's the key. And so what we and the industry and others are working on with these providers is saying, hey, make sure that the human stays in control because what you don't want is a lot of unintended transactions, for lack of better terms. So that's completely separate from the question.

他們可以直接用手機辦理電匯（wire）。但這一切都在安全且受保障的環境中進行。我認為這是關鍵。因此，我們、整個產業以及其他各方與這些提供者合作時，會強調：務必確保人類仍掌控決策，因為你不希望出現大量非預期交易（姑且這麼說）。所以這與另一個問題完全是兩回事。

The question of people optimizing deposits comes down to what a customer puts money with a bank for. And today, a customer can get a money market fund rate of 4%-plus. Today, the customer can get a rate from us of 4% in their money market funds, et cetera, either off-balance sheet or on-balance sheet based on what they want to do.

至於人們最佳化存款的問題，取決於客戶把錢放在銀行的目的。而在今天，客戶可以拿到 4%以上的貨幣市場基金利率。今天，客戶也可以從我們這裡拿到 4% 的利率，透過他們的貨幣市場基金等，依其想要的方式選擇表外或表內。

And so while their checking balances continue to grow, that's their transactional money that they're in motion with, they're making all their payments with, they have to keep that account active. And so optimizing that with the penalty being transactions not going through, bills not being paid and/or overdraft penalties and/or other types of issues is not the optimization.

因此，雖然他們的活期存款（checking）餘額仍在成長，那是他們用於交易的資金——用來支付所有款項、需要維持帳戶活躍的資金。所以若要去最佳化這部分，而代價是交易無法完成、帳單無法支付、以及／或透支罰金、以及／或其他類型的問題，那就不是所謂的最佳化。

They've already optimized their cash that they need for investment purposes. And we've got $280 billion of deposits from our Wealth Management customers, all of whom have a lot of money by definition. And if they want to seek higher rates, they can put it in their account structure, and our advisers would do it for them, into the market, into cash there, and there's a lot of cash in their investment accounts.

他們早已把需要用於投資目的的現金做了最佳化配置。我們有 2,800 億美元來自財富管理客戶的存款，這些客戶按定義都很有錢。如果他們想追求更高利率，他們可以在其帳戶架構中進行配置，我們的理財顧問也會替他們操作，投入市場、配置為那邊的現金，而他們的投資帳戶裡也有大量現金。

So I don't see where the agent is going to change that dynamic. And the risk of it making adjustments at times when it doesn't know what the consumer is doing tomorrow or the consumer has written a check or the consumer has done other things, I think it will settle out.

所以我看不出代理會改變這個動態。至於它在某些時點做出調整、但它並不知道消費者明天要做什麼，或消費者已經開了支票，或消費者做了其他事情的風險，我認為最終會趨於穩定。

So we're not worried about it. We have a great company. Erica and others are capable of helping consumers on an agentic basis. We believe strongly in the human in the loop because humans control their money and should control their money, and it'll work through.

所以我們不擔心。我們是一家很棒的公司。Erica 以及其他工具也有能力以代理式的方式協助消費者。我們非常相信「人類在迴路中」（human in the loop），因為人類掌控自己的錢，也應該掌控自己的錢，而這些都會逐步磨合到位。

But the environment of higher-rate available funds for deposits in our company, whether it's consumers or wealthy clients or commercial clients, has been there, has always been there. And frankly, since money market funds started 40 years ago, there's always been an off-balance-sheet alternative, for example, and you see what happens.

但在我們公司，無論是消費者、富裕客戶或商業客戶，存款可取得較高利率資金的環境一直都存在，也一直如此。坦白說，自從 40 年前貨幣市場基金出現以來，例如表外替代方案一直都存在，你也看得到結果會如何。

So we're very confident in our deposit prospects. And we're very confident in the application of our technology. Actually, it will be what the customer really wants because we are talking to them all the time about that.

所以我們對存款前景非常有信心。我們也對我們技術的應用非常有信心。事實上，它會更貼近客戶真正想要的，因為我們一直都在與他們溝通這些需求。

Thanks for all that color, Brian. If I could just squeeze one quick clarifying question. There's been lots of discussion around the Markets performance. There's also been a lot of focus on having to manage to multiple constituencies on capital. There was a lot of speculation intra-quarter that efforts to manage to a 6% TCE may have weighed on Markets performance in 3Q, as evidenced by the balance sheet contraction in the segment.

謝謝你提供這麼多背景說明，Brian。如果可以的話，我想再追問一個很快的釐清問題。市場業務（Markets）的表現一直有很多討論。另外也有很多焦點放在資本需要同時管理多個利害關係人（constituencies）。在第三季期間有不少推測，認為為了管理到 6% 的 TCE（有形普通股權）可能拖累了第三季 Markets 的表現，從該部門資產負債表收縮可見一斑。

I was hoping you could speak to that linkage of how managing to a 6% TCE target informs your willingness to deploy more balance sheet in the Markets business or, frankly, at the other areas that are just more leverage- versus RWA-intensive?

我希望你能談談這之間的連結：以 6% 的 TCE 目標來管理，如何影響你們在 Markets 業務中部署更多資產負債表的意願，或坦白說，在其他更偏向槓桿密集、而非 RWA（風險加權資產）密集的領域也是如此？

It has no bearing at all. The simple proof of that is year-over-year, the Markets balance sheet is up and the revenue is down. And so they're not constrained. The return opportunity is there because of customer activity. When you're fixed income, both in the capital markets area, which leads to trading, plus the support for our investor clients area, if you're fixed-income dominated and rates go up and the clients step back, that's why the balance sheet wasn't needed.

完全沒有任何影響。最簡單的證明是：以年對年來看，Markets 的資產負債表規模上升，但營收下降。因此他們並沒有受到限制。回報機會取決於客戶活動。當你以固定收益為主——不論是在資本市場領域（帶動交易），或是支援我們投資人客戶的領域——如果你是固定收益主導，而利率上升、客戶退場，那就是為什麼不需要那麼多資產負債表。

They're up significantly in the second quarter, and they gave some of that back, but there's no constraint on their growth if they can get the returns. And that's what Alastair said earlier. So the point is that we support that business. It's up several hundred billion dollars over the last few years, and we expect it to continue to grow, but they've got to get the returns as they're growing.

他們在第二季大幅增加，之後也回吐了一部分，但如果他們能取得回報，他們的成長並不受限。這也是 Alastair 先前說的。重點是，我們支持那項業務。過去幾年它已增加了數千億美元，我們預期它會持續成長，但他們在成長的同時必須取得相應的回報。

And when customers stop cold like they did last quarter, that happens. It's irrelevant to the overall capital of the company because you can see the tangible common equity ratio was flat quarter-to-quarter, and the Markets' contribution to that flatness was relatively minimal. And that's with an extra $1.2 billion hit. The Markets change was relatively minimal in the scheme of $3.5 trillion of assets.

而當客戶像上季那樣突然停滯，這種情況就會發生。這與公司整體資本無關，因為你可以看到有形普通股權比率（tangible common equity ratio）季對季持平，而 Markets 對這種持平的貢獻相對很小。而且這還是在額外承受 12 億美元衝擊的情況下。在 3.5 兆美元資產的規模下，Markets 的變動相對微不足道。

A helpful caller, Brian, thanks for taking my questions.

很有幫助，Brian，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Vivek Juneja, JPMorgan.

Vivek Juneja，JPMorgan。

I want to follow up on two questions. Let me start with the first one. Brian and Alastair, the question that was just asked on the TCE ratio. How firm is that 6%? How much are you willing to let that go down, and under what environments?

我想追問兩個問題。先從第一個開始。Brian 和 Alastair，剛剛有人問到 TCE 比率的問題。那個 6% 有多「硬」？你們願意讓它下降多少？又是在什麼樣的環境下？

It may drift down with outsized growth in the quarter. But it's not like 6% is perfect and 5.99% is not. It's much more flexible around that. But the real thing we talked about, Vivek, earlier in the call in multiple cases is there's lots of metrics around capital. We're waiting for the new capital rules. Alastair said that multiple times, to ensure what happens there and its interface between the two that you've got to work through.

在本季出現超預期成長時，它可能會略為下滑。但並不是說 6% 就完美、5.99% 就不行。在那附近其實彈性大得多。但我們真正談到的重點，Vivek，我們在電話會議較早時在多個情境下提到的是，資本相關有很多衡量指標。我們正在等待新的資本規則。Alastair 多次提到這點，為的是確認那邊會發生什麼，以及你必須釐清兩者之間的介面如何銜接。

But the reality is, on the TCE, there's lots of optimization with a lot of excess capacity to lend, $800 billion worth, and a lot of that not needed for liquidity, and a runoff of the securities portfolio that can, even within that $800 billion, be repositioned. We've got lots of room to grow within the balance sheet and push the efficiency of the balance sheet up.

但實際情況是，就 TCE 而言，有很多最佳化空間，而且有大量可用於放款的超額容量，約 8,000 億美元，其中很大一部分並不需要用於流動性；此外，證券投資組合的自然到期/縮減（runoff）也使得即便在這 8,000 億美元之內，仍可重新配置。我們在資產負債表內有很大的成長空間，並能提升資產負債表的效率。

And so that metric will not constrain our ability to continue the consistent buyback principles of dividends, business growth and all the current earnings goes back. And then secondly, how we run the company and grow the various businesses have calls for capital.

因此，該項指標不會限制我們持續遵循一致的庫藏股回購原則：股利、業務成長，以及把所有當期盈餘回饋回去。其次，我們如何經營公司並推動各項業務成長，也都需要資本配置。

Let me just turn to the second one that I want to follow up on. As Erika mentioned earlier, there was a confidence issue, which is reflected in your stock being down over 7% this morning. Brian, it's obviously a surprise. When you talked on the January '25 call, you talked about how everything was already in the run rate for fixing this issue, the AML issue. Clearly, you've had a huge charge this morning. It's more, not that you can't absorb it, but obviously, it's a reputational confidence issue.

我先轉到我想追問的第二點。如 Erika 先前提到的，市場存在信心問題，反映在你們股價今天早上跌逾 7%。Brian，這顯然出乎意料。你在 2025 年 1 月的電話會議中提到，為修正這個問題（AML 問題）所需的一切都已反映在既定的常態化成本（run rate）中。但很明顯，你們今天早上認列了一筆巨額費用。重點不在於你們吸收不了，而是這顯然是聲譽與信心的問題。

What should we think about? How should we get confidence that this is really in the run rate? Is there a timeline that you can give us that we should look to that would give us some update on how far you've had a deliverable that was due and it is meeting requirements? What is that next timeline, so we know that it's actually now truly behind us as opposed to the risk of more charges or more expenses?

我們應該怎麼看待？我們要如何建立信心，確信這真的已經納入常態化成本（run rate）？你能否給我們一個時間表，讓我們知道何時會有更新，例如你們原本應交付的成果目前進度如何、是否符合要求？下一個時間節點是什麼，讓我們知道這件事確實已經真正過去，而不是仍有更多費用或更多支出風險？

We just resolved the timing aspect of that, which is in the order. And if you look at the cost across all the quarters, basically [$18.5 billion-ish] is the last three quarters, [$18.6 billion], down to [$18.5 billion], and we're telling you it's relatively flat. So it's in the run rate. It's thousands of people. We're repositioning people from other units as we get the efficiencies to this, and then that will let the headcount drain down.

我們剛剛把其中的時程面向解決了，這已經寫在命令（order）裡。如果你看各季的成本，基本上過去三季大約是 185 億美元左右，從 186 億美元降到 185 億美元，而我們告訴你它大致持平。所以它已經在常態化成本（run rate）裡。這涉及數千名員工。隨著我們在這方面取得效率，我們會把人力從其他單位重新調配過來，之後就能讓人頭數逐步下降。

And so it's in the run rate, you can see. And I just gave some statistics to one of your colleagues. So we're very confident that we're on the course. The key was to get agreement to what the resolution was, and that we have.

所以你可以看到，它已經在常態化成本（run rate）裡。我剛才也向你的一位同業提供了一些統計數據。因此我們非常有信心我們走在正確的軌道上。關鍵在於就解決方案達成一致，而我們已經做到了。

We went back and forth on it a little bit earlier in the year. Now there's clarity as to exactly what the metrics, et cetera, they want to see. We file a lot of SARs, et cetera, and we just had to be clear about the metrics they were looking for under a new regime that modified the programs, and we're all set.

今年稍早我們在這件事上來回討論了一陣子。現在對於他們希望看到的具體衡量指標等已經很清楚。我們提交了很多 SAR（可疑活動報告）等等；我們只是需要釐清，在一個調整了相關計畫的新制度下，他們要看的指標是什麼，而我們都已就緒。

Glenn Schorr, Evercore ISI.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore ISI。

Follow-up on the fixed income Markets front. I do think you have a great corporate, munis and mortgage business, and the rate move was weird in the quarter. I get all that. So my question is, have you been pushing to build rates, currencies and commodities to be as big and broad as the other macro franchises, just so you don't have this imbalance from time to time that will always happen in Markets?

追問一下固定收益市場（Markets）這一塊。我確實認為你們的企業債、市政債（munis）與房貸相關業務很強，而本季利率走勢也確實有點怪。這些我都理解。所以我的問題是：你們是否一直在推動把利率、外匯與商品（rates, currencies and commodities）做得跟其他宏觀交易平台一樣大、覆蓋一樣廣，這樣就不會在 Markets 業務中不時出現這種失衡（而這種失衡總會發生）？

Well, I should have said that earlier, Glenn. I mean, I feel like that's been a core discussion that we've sort of laid out over the course of the past two or three years. If you date back a while ago, Jim first started talking about we want to fill the gaps in our franchise. And when we talk about investing in people and technology and balance sheet, what we're trying to do is take the strengths that we have, use those, continue to add.

嗯，Glenn，我應該更早就說到這點。我的感覺是，這一直是我們在過去兩三年逐步闡述的一個核心討論。如果回溯更早之前，Jim 最先開始談到我們希望補齊我們平台（franchise）中的缺口。當我們談到在人員、科技與資產負債表上的投資時，我們要做的是把既有優勢發揮出來，並在此基礎上持續加碼。

And then we want to invest in some other pieces. So we happen to have a bigger fixed income shop than we do equities. We can continue to invest in the equities business. As you point out, we feel like we can continue to do more with clients around the world in rates and foreign exchange and commodities.

然後我們也希望投資在其他一些環節。我們的固定收益部位確實比股票更大。我們可以持續投資股票業務。如你所指出的，我們也認為在利率、外匯與商品方面，能持續在全球範圍內為客戶做得更多。

So this is one of the reasons that we stood up at Investor Day and said we see growth in all of our lines of business because this is an important contributor to us, and we've got pretty good growth opportunities in those areas. So yes is the answer. We've known that for a while. We continue to invest there, and I think you should expect to see us continue to grow.

所以這也是我們在投資人日站出來說「我們在所有業務線都看到成長」的原因之一，因為這對我們是重要的貢獻來源，而且在這些領域我們有相當不錯的成長機會。所以答案是肯定的。我們早就知道這點。我們會持續投資，我認為你應該預期我們會繼續成長。

Okay. I appreciate that.

好的。感謝。

Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets.

Gerard Cassidy，RBC Capital Markets。

Can you guys share with us -- I know this is in your credit area, asset quality, I think it's slide 12. Can you show us the reservable criticized utilized exposure, about $19.9 billion, down 25% year-over-year. Can you share with us the trends that drove that number lower? I know, Alastair, you talked about the consumer credit's in great shape. We all see that. But what's driving these numbers this way? And do you think those trends continue into 2027?

你們能否跟我們分享一下——我知道這在你們的信用領域、資產品質，我想是在第 12 頁投影片。你們能否說明一下可提列準備金的受批評已動用曝險（reservable criticized utilized exposure），大約 199 億美元，年減 25%。能否分享一下是哪些趨勢驅動這個數字下降？我知道 Alastair 你提到消費者信用狀況非常好。我們也都看得到。但到底是什麼在推動這些數字往這個方向走？你認為這些趨勢會延續到 2027 年嗎？

Well, this is our commercial metrics. So it just takes into account the lending we've done across the commercial loan categories. And we've got pretty broad-based improvement. I'd say one of the bigger areas of improvement over the course of the past year has been commercial real estate office. We're at the very tail end of that now.

嗯，這是我們的商業端指標。所以它只納入我們在各類商業貸款類別中所做的放款。而我們看到相當廣泛的改善。我會說，過去一年改善幅度較大的領域之一是商用不動產的辦公室（office）。我們現在已經接近那一段的尾聲了。

The criticized balances, I think, are down 50% or 60% in that one area. So that's been an important contributor. But when you're talking about a decline like this, i.e., an improvement like this in criticized utilized exposure, it's obviously broad-based. It's helped a great deal that the consumer is so strong and that the economy is strong. So that is just another piece of that evidence, Gerard, that the economy is in a good place at this point.

我記得在那個領域，受批評餘額大概下降了 50% 或 60%。所以那是一個重要的貢獻因素。但當你談到這樣的下降——也就是受批評已動用曝險出現這樣的改善——很明顯是廣泛性的。消費者如此強勁、經濟如此強勁，對此也有很大幫助。所以這也只是另一項證據，Gerard，顯示目前經濟處在一個不錯的位置。

In terms of 2027, I'd say this criticized utilized exposure number is pretty low relative to even pre-COVID numbers. I think this is the lowest we've had since COVID. So can it improve? Yes. But if you look at the charge-offs today in commercial, they're really, really low at $220 million for the quarter.

至於 2027 年，我會說這個受批評已動用曝險的數字，相較於甚至疫情前的水準都相當低。我認為這是我們自 COVID 以來最低的一次。所以還能改善嗎？可以。但如果你看目前商業端的核銷（charge-offs），真的非常非常低，本季只有 2.2 億美元。

So can they go a lot lower? I mean, maybe a little lower, but I think we feel good about 2027. We don't necessarily see any change right now to the underlying credit quality, but it's a really low number at this point.

所以它們還能再降很多嗎？我的意思是，或許還能再低一點，但我認為我們對 2027 年感覺良好。我們目前不一定看到基礎信用品質有任何變化，但在這個時間點這已經是個非常低的數字。

Very good. And then as a follow-up, I know this is not necessarily an easy question to answer. But clearly, the economy, and we're all benefiting from the boom in AI and capital expenditures. We all see, with the hyperscalers, what they're spending. Have you guys been able to get your arms around or frame out what kind of indirect exposure Bank of America might have to the food service companies that are going out to these sites that are being built or the lodging owners that are housing people that are building new sites?

非常好。接著追問一下，我知道這不一定是個容易回答的問題。但很明顯，經濟方面，我們都在受惠於 AI 與資本支出熱潮。我們也都看到超大規模業者（hyperscalers）的支出情況。你們是否能掌握或界定，美國銀行對於那些前往正在興建的據點提供餐飲服務的公司，或為建置新據點的人員提供住宿的旅宿業主，可能存在何種間接曝險？

Is there any secondary derivative analysis that you guys can do so that when the AI boom slows down, those businesses probably will be impacted at some point. Any thoughts on that?

你們是否能做任何次級的衍生分析，因為當 AI 熱潮放緩時，這些企業在某個時間點可能會受到影響。對此有什麼想法嗎？

I think, Gerard, the last part of your question kind of hit the point, which is, if a chunk of growth, and the question of how big it is, you can get different economists and different people who would argue, going on this year is due to AI activity, and that were to slow down, that would slow down sort of what is apparent in AI, but also could have ripple effects through construction, staffing and all the things you labeled.

我想，Gerard，你問題的最後一部分其實點出了重點：如果今年的成長有一部分——至於有多大，不同經濟學家與不同人士會有不同看法——是由 AI 活動所帶動，而這些活動若放緩，就會放慢 AI 表面上呈現的成長，同時也可能透過你提到的建築、用工配置以及各種事項產生連鎖效應。

So I think that would be a general economic move. And I think right now, the nominal economy growing 5%-plus, with inflation down to 2%-plus by our team, there's a lot of nominal activity, and that would slow down. The question then would be, would inflation slow down and other things around it?

所以我認為那會是一種整體經濟面的變動。而我認為目前名目經濟成長在 5% 以上，依我們團隊的看法，通膨已降至 2% 以上，名目活動相當熱絡，而那將會放緩。接下來的問題是，通膨是否也會放緩，以及周邊其他因素會如何變化？

And how much, if any, unemployment it would cause, which would be the ripple effect for the economy. If you think about new claims for unemployment, the last four weeks, I think, averaged 190-something, which is lower nominally than prior to the pandemic, when there were fewer people working in the United States.

以及它會造成多少（如果有的話）失業，這將是對經濟的連鎖效應。如果你看新申請失業救濟的人數，過去四週平均大概是 190 多（千），名目上比疫情前還低，而當時美國的就業人口還更少。

So people are employed, we can see that. We can see them getting more money. And so the question would be what would be the effect. And we always are looking at every individual customer in terms of where the revenues come from in the commercial underwriting. Do they have a concentration of customers that they're beholden to? And if those change, how does that affect them as part of the underwriting? In other words, what's the strength of the cash flows, the diversity of cash flows, et cetera?

所以人們有在就業，我們看得到。我們也看得到他們拿到更多薪資。因此問題在於影響會是什麼。而我們在商業授信審查（underwriting）時，始終會逐一檢視每一位客戶的收入來源。他們是否對某些客戶有高度集中、必須依賴？若這些情況改變，會如何影響他們，並納入授信審查的一部分？換言之，現金流的強度、現金流的多元性等等？

So that's taken into account. And you know our credit quality is something on the commercial side and the consumer side, both, but especially on the commercial side, that has been very durable through COVID, through other ups and downs.

所以這些都會被納入考量。而你也知道，我們的信用品質——商業端與消費端皆然，但尤其是商業端——在 COVID 期間以及其他起伏中都非常具韌性。

Commercial real estate, remember, if you go back two years ago, you all thought we were going to have a lot of commercial real estate problems. It didn't turn out to be true because the underlying underwriting we do is strong. And you should expect that that's going on throughout all our portfolios on any given day.

商用不動產方面，記得如果回到兩年前，你們都以為我們會有很多商用不動產問題。結果並非如此，因為我們所做的基礎授信審查很扎實。你們應該預期，在任何一天，這樣的作法都貫穿於我們所有投資組合之中。

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will now turn the meeting over to Brian Moynihan.

謝謝。目前沒有其他排隊提問。我現在把會議交給 Brian Moynihan。

So I want to thank all of you. Just as you think about themes for the quarter, the key is we've resolved the government discussion in the AML area. The penalty was paid in the third quarter, and the expenses are in the run rate. Secondly, while the Markets activity, because of our strong business mix towards fixed income, hit us, we still made a lot of money trading this quarter. We made money on very few days of low revenues. So we feel very good about it.

所以我想感謝各位。就本季的主題而言，關鍵在於我們已在 AML（反洗錢）領域解決了與政府之間的討論。罰款已在第三季支付，相關費用也已納入常態化費用水準（run rate）。第二，雖然市場業務活動因我們偏重固定收益的強勁業務組合而對我們造成影響，但本季我們的交易仍然賺了很多錢。我們只有極少數日子出現低收入。因此我們對此感覺非常好。

As we look forward, as Alastair said, we expect that we may not see quite the seasonal drop we've seen in past periods. But the key for Bank of America is diversity in businesses. So on a normalized basis, we're an $8 billion-plus earnings company: $3.5 billion in the Consumer business, $2 billion in the commercial lending business, $1.5 billion in the Wealth Management business, all of which had strong growth in revenue, strong growth in organic activity, and great credit quality.

展望未來，如 Alastair 所說，我們預期可能不會看到過去期間那樣明顯的季節性下滑。但美國銀行的關鍵在於業務多元化。因此在常態化基礎上，我們是一家獲利超過 80 億美元的公司：消費金融業務 35 億美元、商業放款業務 20 億美元、財富管理業務 15 億美元；這些業務的收入成長強勁、有機活動成長強勁，且信用品質極佳。

And you see that in the overall growth in deposits, loans and, importantly, the net interest income and the confidence we have going forward in both the projected growth in net interest income and yield. Thank you, and we continue to drive this company for the benefit of our clients and you.

你也可以從存款、放款的整體成長中看到這一點，而且更重要的是，淨利息收入，以及我們對未來淨利息收入與收益率（yield）預期成長的信心。謝謝，我們將持續推動公司發展，以造福我們的客戶以及各位。

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。感謝各位撥冗參與。各位現在可以斷線。