AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd (AXS) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning and welcome to the AXIS capital fourth quarter, 2024 conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 AXIS 資本 2024 年第四季電話會議。（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在被記錄。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Cliff Gallant, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係主管 Cliff Gallant 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2024 conference call. Our earnings press release and financial supplement were issued last night. If you like copies, please visit the Investor Information section of our website at axiscapital.com. We set aside an hour for today's call, which is also available as an audio webcast on our website.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加我們 2024 年第四季電話會議。我們的收益新聞稿和財務補充資料已於昨晚發布。如果您需要副本，請造訪我們網站 axiscapital.com 的投資者資訊部分。我們為今天的電話會議預留了一個小時的時間，您也可以在我們的網站上觀看音訊網路廣播。

Joining me on today's call are Vincent Tizzio, our President and CEO; and Pete Vogt, our CFO. In addition, I would like to remind everyone that the statements made during this call, including the question-and-answer session, which are not historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual events or results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including the risk factors set forth in the company's most recent report on the Form 10-K or our quarterly report on the Form 10-Q and other reports the company files with the SEC.

參加今天電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Vincent Tizzio；以及我們的財務長 Pete Vogt。另外，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中，包括問答環節中所作的陳述並非歷史事實，而可能是前瞻性陳述。前瞻性陳述涉及風險、不確定性和假設。由於多種因素，包括公司最新的 10-K 表報告或 10-Q 表季度報告以及公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他報告中所列的風險因素，實際事件或結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。

This includes the additional risks identified in the cautionary note regarding the forward-looking statements in our earnings press release issued last night. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements.

這包括昨晚我們發布的收益新聞稿中關於前瞻性陳述的警告中指出的額外風險。我們不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

In addition, our non-GAAP financial measures may be discussed during this conference call. Reconciliations are included in our earnings press release and financial supplements.

此外，我們的非公認會計準則財務指標可能會在本次電話會議中討論。對帳內容包含在我們的收益新聞稿和財務補充文件中。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Vince.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給文斯。

Thank you, Cliff. Good morning, and thank you for joining our call. Before we begin, please allow me to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic wildfires in Los Angeles. And on behalf of all of AXIS, we share our heartfelt support for the impacted individuals, families and communities. We also express our gratitude to the firefighters and relief workers who are doing outstanding work.

謝謝你，克里夫。早安，感謝您參加我們的電話會議。在我們開始之前，請允許我花一點時間來了解洛杉磯的悲慘山火。我謹代表 AXIS 全體成員，向受影響的個人、家庭和社區表達我們最誠摯的支持。我們也向出色工作的消防員和救援人員表示感謝。

Moving to our 2024 results. 2024 was a great year of progress AXIS -- culminating as one of the best years for our company. Before we unpack these results, I'll just take a moment to thank my AXIS colleagues throughout the world for their excellent work and commitment to our customers broker partners as well as to one and another. And looking at both the fourth quarter and full year, AXIS produced strong results across all its key indices, while advancing our company strategy outlined at our Investor Day in May.

展望 2024 年的業績。 2024 年是 AXIS 進步的偉大一年——也是我們公司最好的一年。在我們揭曉這些結果之前，我想花一點時間感謝遍布全球的 AXIS 同事，感謝他們的出色工作以及對我們的客戶、經紀合作夥伴以及彼此的承諾。縱觀第四季度和全年，AXIS 在所有主要指數中均取得了強勁的業績，同時推進了我們在 5 月份投資者日概述的公司策略。

The year was highlighted by a number of strategic accomplishments, including the expansion of our underwriting and product capabilities, investments and enhancements to our operating model and the recruitment of new and complementary talent. The changes we have implemented will allow AXIS to continue operating with pace, clarity of purpose and strong execution. We believe AXIS is well positioned to drive sustained profitable growth and value creation in '25 and beyond.

這一年我們取得了許多策略成就，包括擴大核保和產品能力、投資和改進我們的營運模式以及招募新的和互補的人才。我們實施的變革將使 AXIS 能夠持續快速營運、目標明確且執行力強。我們相信，AXIS 有能力在 25 年及以後推動持續的獲利成長和價值創造。

Let's now review our full year financial results. We delivered operating return on equity of 18.6% and a year-end book value of $65.27, representing 20.7% growth as compared to the prior year. We generated record operating earnings per share of $11.18 and a 98% increase over the prior year and 75% higher than our previous best in 2007.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們的全年財務表現。我們實現了 18.6% 的營業股本回報率，年末帳面價值為 65.27 美元，比上年增長了 20.7%。我們每股營業收益達到創紀錄的 11.18 美元，比上年增長 98%，比 2007 年的最高紀錄高出 75%。

I'll note that our top four quarters of operating earnings per share were all in 2024. We delivered a combined ratio of 92.3% for the year, a 7.6 point improvement over the prior year on an [ex-cat] basis, we produced a current accident year combined ratio of 88.5% for the year, consistent with our prior year results. Full year premiums were a record $9 billion or 7.8% over the prior year including $2.6 billion in new business as we delivered on the full year expectations that we shared with you during our second quarter call.

我要指出的是，我們每股營業收益最高的四個季度都出現在 2024 年。我們全年的綜合賠付率為 92.3%，以 [不包括巨災保險] 計算，比上年提高了 7.6 個百分點，當年事故年度的綜合賠付率為 88.5%，與上年結果一致。全年保費收入達到創紀錄的 90 億美元，比上年增長 7.8%，其中包括 26 億美元的新業務，我們實現了在第二季度電話會議上與您分享的全年預期。

We generated year-over-year expense improvement of 90 basis points to our GA ratio and are on track to hit our long-term target of 11% by 2026. There were some notable items in the expense ratio, which Pete will speak to in his comments.

我們的 GA 比率年比費用改善了 90 個基點，預計在 2026 年實現 11% 的長期目標。費用率中有一些值得注意的項目，Pete 將在他的評論中談到。

And lastly, net investment income was a record $759 million for the year. Taken together, this was an excellent year for AXIS and one where we took important steps to build a stronger and more resilient company. From an improved position of financial strength, we view repurchasing shares as an attractive use of our capital, and we utilized our stock repurchase program in the order of magnitude of $200 million over the course of the year. And in December, we completed an important step in further aligning our balance sheet with the front end of our business with the execution of an LPT with Enstar.

最後，全年淨投資收入達到創紀錄的 7.59 億美元。總的來說，對於 AXIS 來說，這是輝煌的一年，在這一年中，我們邁出了重要的一步，打造一家更強大、更具韌性的公司。從財務實力的增強來看，我們認為回購股票是一種有吸引力的資本用途，我們在一年內利用了約 2 億美元的股票回購計畫。12 月份，我們與 Enstar 簽署了 LPT，邁出了重要一步，進一步使我們的資產負債表與業務前端保持一致。

Let's now move to our operating segments, and we'll begin with insurance. In 2024, our insurance business performed exceedingly well. We produced an overall combined ratio of 89.1% in a current accident year ex-cat of 84%. Moreover, we generated $6.6 billion in premium, up 7.7% over the prior year. With respect to new and expanded products that we had mentioned at our Investor Day, we generated $560 million in new premiums, and we are very encouraged that the seeds that we planted are showing growth potential.

現在讓我們轉到我們的營運分部，我們從保險開始。2024年，我們的保險業務表現非常出色。在目前事故年度中，我們的整體綜合賠付率為 89.1%，不包括意外傷害保險，賠付率為 84%。此外，我們的保費收入達到 66 億美元，比上年增長 7.7%。就我們在投資者日提到的新產品和擴展產品而言，我們創造了 5.6 億美元的新保費，我們非常高興地看到，我們種下的種子正在顯示出成長潛力。

Turning to our core insurance divisions. In North America, strong growth of 8% for the year even while reshaping our primary casualty book and eliminating $140 million of written premiums. Across North America, submission flow was up 25% year-over-year with our wholesale channel generating a 27% improvement in submissions led by E&S property and AXIS casualty.

轉向我們的核心保險部門。在北美，儘管我們重塑了主要意外險帳簿並取消了 1.4 億美元的已承保保費，但全年仍實現了 8% 的強勁增長。在北美，保險提交量年增了 25%，其中批發通路的保險提交量增加了 27%，主要體現在 E&S 財產險和 AXIS 意外險。

Moving to Global Markets. We generated 7.6% growth over the prior year, which included the nonrenewal of some $60 million in written premiums from our delegated cyber portfolio, and we concluded 2024, maintaining our outperformed status from Lloyd's.

走向全球市場。我們比前一年實現了 7.6% 的成長，其中包括我們委託的網路保險投資組合中約 6,000 萬美元的承保保費未續保，並且在 2024 年結束時，我們保持了優於勞合社的表現。

As I've commented previously, we are evidencing increasing competition in global markets, particularly within our property, marine and aviation units. Our underwriters continue to maintain discipline as we drive selective growth, particularly in A&H, property, renewable energy and certain of our credit products.

正如我之前所評論的那樣，我們正在見證全球市場日益激烈的競爭，特別是在我們的房地產、海運和航空部門內。在我們推動選擇性成長的過程中，我們的承銷商繼續保持紀律，特別是在疾病和健康保險、財產、再生能源和某些信貸產品領域。

Our dedicated energy transition syndicate launched just eight months ago at Lloyd's produced more than $30 million of business in 2024, and we remain optimistic about the value of this syndicate and its product capabilities deliver to the market.

我們專門的能源轉型財團八個月前在勞合社成立，並在 2024 年創造了超過 3000 萬美元的業務，我們仍然對該財團的價值及其產品能力為市場帶來的價值持樂觀態度。

Let's now move to reinsurance. Our reinsurance business performed well in 2024, consistently producing strong contributions to both the top and bottom line. For the year, AXIS reproduced a combined ratio of 91.8% and generated $2.4 billion in premiums, growing nearly 8% driven by a 16% year-over-year increase in our targeted short-tail specialty lines.

現在我們來討論再保險。我們的再保險業務在 2024 年表現良好，持續為營收和利潤做出強勁貢獻。AXIS 今年的綜合比率為 91.8%，保費收入為 24 億美元，成長近 8%，這得益於我們針對性的短尾專業險種年增 16%。

Moreover, during the year, we produced $493 million of new business, 63% of which came from our short-tail specialty lines. As respects [1.1], where we write 45% of our reinsurance business, our team performed well with the backdrop of a competitive market.

此外，今年我們創造了 4.93 億美元的新業務，其中 63% 來自我們的短尾特色航線。就[1.1]而言，我們承保了45％的再保險業務，在競爭激烈的市場背景下，我們的團隊表現良好。

Overall, it was an orderly renewal with some nuance by line. We saw particularly favorable conditions in credit and surety. We continue to see opportunities in cyber despite an increasingly competitive environment. We saw greater competition in the UK motor class driven by the reduction in the Ogden rate, which, of course, has placed downward pressure on rate levels. As respect to marine, we saw increasing capacity and pressure on rates and in liability we saw double-digit rate increases in the US, but the market was differentiated by loss experience and business mix.

總體而言，這是一次有序的更新，並在每一行上都有一些細微的差別。我們看到信貸和擔保方面的條件特別有利。儘管競爭日益激烈，我們仍在網路領域看到機會。我們看到，由於奧格登費率的降低，英國汽車業的競爭更加激烈，這當然給費率水準帶來了下行壓力。就海運而言，我們看到運力不斷增加，費率面臨壓力；在責任方面，我們看到美國的費率出現了兩位數的增長，但市場因損失經歷和業務組合而有所不同。

While the overall reinsurance market remains competitive, we continue to leverage our specialty capabilities where we see strong premium adequacy while maintaining a selective appetite in professional and casualty lines. Stepping back, let's take a moment to discuss broader market conditions.

雖然整體再保險市場仍然競爭激烈，但我們將繼續利用我們的專業能力，在保費充足率較高的地方開展業務，同時在專業和意外保險方面保持選擇性。退一步來說，讓我們花點時間討論更廣泛的市場狀況。

The risk landscape remains highly complex and continues to rapidly evolve, reflecting a marketplace that will draw on many of the specialist capabilities that AXIS brings to the market. There are a number of trends that we are observing and we are ensuring that our portfolio remains responsive and resilient. I will outline several trends that we continue to monitor and respond to with our specialty product capabilities through our various distribution channels.

風險情勢仍然高度複雜且持續快速發展，反映出市場將藉鏡 AXIS 為市場帶來的許多專業能力。我們觀察到了許多趨勢，我們正在確保我們的投資組合保持敏捷性和彈性。我將概述我們透過各種分銷管道利用我們的特色產品能力持續監控和應對的幾個趨勢。

First, climate. As respect to climate risk, there is no doubt that this was an active year globally, and we estimate more than $135 billion of industry losses at the same time, the dispersion of peril impacting the globe is wide ranging. We saw most recently the effect of the wildfires in Los Angeles, the continued increase of severe convective storms in the US and other impactful natural catastrophes. A consequence of this phenomenon is the continued shift of business into the E&S channel, where we believe we are -- we have the expertise and product know-how to meet our clients' needs.

第一，氣候。就氣候風險而言，毫無疑問，這是全球氣候風險活躍的一年，我們估計，同時，產業損失將超過 1,350 億美元，影響全球的危險範圍十分廣泛。最近，我們看到了洛杉磯野火的影響、美國強對流風暴的持續增加以及其他深遠的自然災害。這現象的結果是業務不斷轉移到 E&S 管道，我們相信我們擁有專業知識和產品技術來滿足客戶的需求。

Second, the continued impact of social inflation on various lines of business, but most particularly on liability, which continues to draw great scrutiny as the increase in claims awards driving severity remains an industry challenge.

其次，社會通膨對各項業務的持續影響，尤其是對責任保險的影響。

Third, the D&O market continues to show an imbalance with a growing delta between pricing and loss cost trends, even as conditions continue to deteriorate. Indeed, security class action lawsuits are at their highest level since 2020 and continue to grow year-over-year with filings up 5% in '24. Moreover, bankruptcy rate filings in the US are also on the rise, up 8% year-over-year.

第三，即使情況持續惡化，D&O 市場仍持續呈現不平衡狀態，定價和損失成本趨勢之間的差距不斷擴大。事實上，安全集體訴訟數量達到了 2020 年以來的最高水平，並且繼續逐年增長，2024 年提起的訴訟數量增加了 5%。此外，美國破產申請率也在上升，較去年同期成長8%。

Fourth, the cyber risk landscape is evolving in a variety of ways, whether it be the resurgence of ransomware, third-party privacy regulations, the impact of AI in driving more sophisticated cyber attacks or rising geopolitical tensions as a long-time leader in cyber with broad-based product capabilities and deep subject matter expertise. AXIS is particularly well positioned to help our customers delivering tailored products, risk advisory services and our rapid triage and support resource known as the incident Commander.

第四，網路風險格局正在以多種方式演變，無論是勒索軟體的復甦、第三方隱私法規、人工智慧在推動更複雜的網路攻擊方面的影響，還是作為網路領域的長期領導者憑藉廣泛的產品能力和深厚的專業知識而加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢。AXIS 特別適合幫助我們的客戶提供客製化產品、風險諮詢服務以及被稱為事件指揮官的快速分類和支援資源。

Lastly, the energy marketplace will certainly evolve with a renewed focus on traditional energy in the United States, and yet it is anticipated that there will continue to be global demand for clean energy. With leadership in both traditional energy and energy transition and deep subject matter know-how with a broad and responsive portfolio of products, AXIS is well positioned to help our customers navigate emerging geopolitical developments, changing regulatory and policy environment, potential energy price volatility, technology advances and supply chain disruptions.

最後，能源市場肯定會發生變化，美國將重新關注傳統能源，但預計全球對清潔能源的需求仍將持續。AXIS 在傳統能源和能源轉型領域佔據領導地位，擁有深厚的主題知識和廣泛而敏捷的產品組合，能夠幫助我們的客戶應對新興的地緣政治發展、不斷變化的監管和政策環境、潛在的能源價格波動、技術進步和供應鏈中斷。

Stepping back, and looking at the shifts that are happening across the broader market, we believe the access underwriting capabilities are well suited to support the diverse needs of our customers in this dynamic risk landscape. Let's unpack this further. We continue to mix shift toward premium adequate short-tail lines, which currently comprise 52% of our total gross premiums written, up approximately 4% as compared to the prior year.

回顧過去，看看整個市場正在發生的變化，我們相信准入承保能力非常適合支持我們客戶在這種動態風險格局中的多樣化需求。讓我們進一步探討這個問題。我們繼續向保費充足的短尾險種轉變，目前這類險種占我們總承保保費的 52%，比上年增長約 4%。

In property, we're seeing increased competition through both our principal property divisions, Global Property and North America E&S, which taken together make up 57% of our total property written premiums. Our property portfolio is well constructed, well diversified and highly premium adequate. Following five years of rate increases where pricing has more than doubled.

在房地產領域，我們看到我們的主要房地產部門——全球房地產和北美 E&S 的競爭日益激烈，這兩個部門合計占我們總房地產承保保費的 57%。我們的房地產投資組合結構良好、多元化且優質。經過五年的升息，價格上漲了一倍多。

As previously noted, pricing momentum and liability remains strong and is accelerating. By way of example, in our US excess casualty book, we generated rate increases of 14% for the year, and 18% in the quarter as we grew our US AXIS casualty business 18% year-over-year. In Primary Casualty, rates were up 20% for the year and 29% for the quarter.

如前所述，定價動能和責任依然強勁且正在加速。舉例來說，在我們的美國超額傷亡險帳簿中，由於我們的美國 AXIS 傷亡險業務年增 18%，我們的費率在全年增長了 14%，在本季度增長了 18%。在主要意外險方面，費率全年上漲了 20%，本季上漲了 29%。

Transactional liability premiums grew 24% in the year and 11% in the quarter as we are seeing increasing deal activity driving submission flow. Premiums remain adequate in this launch. In cyber, we remain focused on growing our large account segment, and we grew North America large cyber by 13% in the year.

由於我們看到交易活動的增加推動了提交流量，交易責任保費在去年同期增加了 24%，在本季度增加了 11%。本次發布中的保費仍然充足。在網路領域，我們仍專注於擴大大客戶業務，今年北美大型網路業務成長了 13%。

As part of our reshaping of our delegated cyber portfolio, we continue to be pleased with the expansion of our partnership with Elpha Secure to address the lower middle market. As I've commented in prior calls, we continue to lean into our ability to deploy cyber capacity through both of our underwriting businesses. In reinsurance, we grew our portfolio to $166 million and written premium up 72% over the prior year. We remain confident in our strong premium adequacy prudent limit deployment and accumulation management between both insurance and reinsurance supporting this growth.

作為我們重塑委託網絡投資組合的一部分，我們很高興能夠擴大與 Elpha Secure 的合作夥伴關係，以應對中低階市場。正如我在先前的電話會議中所說，我們將繼續依靠我們的兩項承保業務來部署網路容量。在再保險方面，我們的投資組合成長至 1.66 億美元，承保保費比去年增加了 72%。我們仍然對我們強大的保費充足率審慎限額部署以及保險和再保險之間的累積管理支持這一增長充滿信心。

Stepping back and looking at market conditions and the rate environment, while there are signs of continued moderation in rate achievement, the AXIS portfolio remains premium adequate and is meeting our risk-adjusted return expectations. We anticipate our profitable growth will continue in part by price increases, but more importantly, we will continue to leverage our diversified portfolio and further monetize the expansion of new customer segments, new geographies and and a rich and broadening arsenal of product capabilities.

回顧市場狀況和利率環境，雖然有跡象表明利率水準持續放緩，但 AXIS 投資組合的溢價仍然充足，並符合我們風險調整後的回報預期。我們預計我們的獲利成長將持續，部分原因是價格上漲，但更重要的是，我們將繼續利用我們多元化的產品組合，進一步將新客戶群、新地域的擴張和豐富且不斷擴大的產品功能庫貨幣化。

Let's now turn to our How We Work transformation program. How We Work continues to progress, building a foundation for long-term profitable growth. In 2024, we took critical steps to strengthen and reshape our company's target operating model while building new skills and capabilities across the enterprise, including operations and claims. In addition, throughout the business, we've deepened our technical expertise as we've added strong talent to complement our existing team. This has enabled us to build out new business units with skills and tools to meet the emerging needs of our customers while deepening our bench of teammates.

現在讓我們來談談我們的工作方式轉型計劃。我們的工作方式不斷進步，為長期獲利成長奠定基礎。2024年，我們採取了關鍵措施來加強和重塑公司的目標營運模式，同時在整個企業（包括營運和索賠）範圍內建立新的技能和能力。此外，在整個業務過程中，我們不斷增加強大的人才來補充我們現有的團隊，從而深化了我們的技術專長。這使我們能夠建立新的業務部門，掌握足夠的技能和工具來滿足客戶的新興需求，同時增強我們的團隊成員。

Moreover, we've made key investments in technology, AI, and we continue to improve our efficiency and enhance our value proposition through speed, productivity and decision-making. We also continue to invest in our workplace programming to create an environment where our talent can thrive. And just last week, AXIS was recognized by US news on its 2025 list of the best companies to work for.

此外，我們對科技、人工智慧進行了重點投資，並不斷透過速度、生產力和決策來提高效率並增強我們的價值主張。我們也將繼續投資於我們的工作場所規劃，以創造一個讓我們的人才蓬勃發展的環境。就在上週，AXIS 被美國新聞列入 2025 年最佳工作公司名單。

In closing, we look to the future with optimism and excitement. We believe that 2024 was a pivotal year in the AXIS journey, where the company delivered on its promises enhanced its value proposition continue to generate consistent, profitable results and achieve new recognition in the marketplace as a competitive force in the specialty arena.

最後，我們滿懷樂觀和興奮地展望未來。我們相信，2024 年是 AXIS 歷程中的關鍵一年，在這一年中，公司兌現了承諾，增強了價值主張，繼續創造持續、盈利的業績，並作為專業領域的競爭力量在市場上獲得新的認可。

We take pride in the progress that we've made and also have the humility to recognize that much work remains ahead. Throughout the company, we're committed to delivering value to our stakeholders, and we're motivated by the privilege that we have in solving customers' problems across the world.

我們為所取得的進步感到自豪，同時也謙虛地認識到還有很多工作要做。在整個公司，我們致力於為利益相關者提供價值，並為能夠解決世界各地客戶的問題而感到榮幸。

And with that, I'll pass to Pete.

接下來我會把話題交給皮特。

Thank you, Vince, and good morning, everyone. AXIS had a very strong performance in the quarter and for the full year 2024. In the quarter, our net income available to common shareholders was $286 million or $3.38 per diluted common share. And for the full year, $1.05 billion or $12.35 per diluted common share, producing a 20.5% return on common equity. This drove our book value per diluted common share to $65.27 at year-end, an increase of 20.7%.

謝謝你，文斯，大家早安。AXIS 在本季和 2024 年全年表現非常強勁。本季度，我們普通股股東可獲得的淨利潤為 2.86 億美元，即每股攤薄普通股 3.38 美元。全年獲利 10.5 億美元，即每股稀釋普通股 12.35 美元，普通股權益報酬率為 20.5%。這使得我們每股攤薄普通股的帳面價值在年底達到 65.27 美元，成長了 20.7%。

Our operating income was $252 million, or $2.97 per diluted common share for the quarter and $952 million or $11.18 per diluted common share for the full year, resulting in 18.6% operating ROE for full year 2024.

本季我們的營業收入為 2.52 億美元，即每股攤薄普通股 2.97 美元，全年營業收入為 9.52 億美元，即每股攤薄普通股 11.18 美元，2024 年全年營業 ROE 為 18.6%。

Looking at our consolidated results. Our company-wide quarterly gross premiums written grew 11% and to nearly $2 billion, our highest production fourth quarter ever as we continue to see attractive opportunities across most lines of business.

看看我們的綜合業績。我們全公司季度毛保費收入成長 11%，達到近 20 億美元，這是我們有史以來第四季度的最高產值，因為我們繼續在大多數業務線上看到誘人的機會。

For the full year, gross premiums exceeded $9 billion for 8% growth and outstanding results. Our quarterly combined ratio was an excellent 94.2%, despite Hurricane Milton, and for the full year, it was 92.3% and with improvements in both loss and expense ratios. For both the quarter and the full year, our accident year loss ratio ex-cat and weather was a superb 55.7%. For each quarter in 2024, we were consistently in the mid-50s range. We are vigilant in implementing our learnings from our 2023 fourth quarter in-depth reserve review while also reflecting the growth of attractively priced short tail lines.

全年毛保費超過90億美元，成長8%，業績亮眼。儘管受到米爾頓颶風的影響，我們的季度綜合比率仍達到優異的 94.2%，全年綜合比率達到 92.3%，且損失率和費用率均有所改善。無論從本季或全年來看，我們的事故年度損失率（不包括巨災和天氣因素）都達到了優異的 55.7%。2024 年每個季度，我們都穩定在 50 年代中期的範圍內。我們密切關注並落實 2023 年第四季深入儲備審查中的經驗教訓，同時也反映了價格誘人的短尾航線的成長。

In the quarter, we adhered to our philosophy of wanting to see sustained positive momentum before releasing reserves. And we recorded a release of $16 million from short-tail lines of business with $12 million in insurance and $4 million in reinsurance.

在本季度，我們堅持我們的理念，在釋放儲備之前希望看到持續的積極勢頭。我們從短尾業務線中釋放了 1600 萬美元，其中包括 1200 萬美元的保險和 400 萬美元的再保險。

As we mentioned on our third quarter call, our normal practice is to have an independent third-party actuarial firm review our reserves at year-end. That review is complete, and we continue to see that the data and underlying claims patterns are consistent with the assumptions we set a year ago.

正如我們在第三季電話會議上提到的，我們的正常做法是在年底讓獨立的第三方精算公司審查我們的儲備金。審查已經完成，我們繼續看到數據和基本索賠模式與我們一年前設定的假設一致。

A very high natural catastrophe loss year for the industry, we're pleased to see the successful execution of our strategic efforts to reduce volatility. The fourth quarter nat cat loss ratio was 5.9% as we experienced $81 million of nat cats with the largest portion generated by Hurricane Milton at $53 million, with an additional $15 million due to an increase for Helen.

今年是產業遭受自然災害損失非常嚴重的一年，我們很高興看到我們成功實施了降低波動性的策略努力。第四季自然巨災損失率為 5.9%，因為我們經歷了 8,100 萬美元的自然巨災損失，其中最大的一部分是由颶風米爾頓造成的，為 5,300 萬美元，另外還有 1,500 萬美元是由於海倫造成的。

For the full year, we had nat cat loss ratio of just 4.3% and an excellent result. Our peak PMLs remain large US natural catastrophes, including a California earthquake or Southeast hurricane. Each of these events remains well below 5% of shareholder equity at the one in 250-year peril mark. While we are taking advantage of market opportunities and growing our insurance property book, -- our event PMLs have remained steady.

全年來看，我們的天然巨災損失率僅 4.3%，業績十分優異。我們的峰值 PML 仍然是美國的大型自然災害，包括加州地震或東南颶風。在 250 年一遇的危​​險標準下，上述每起事件的發生率都遠低於股東權益的 5%。雖然我們正在利用市場機會並擴大我們的保險財產帳簿，但我們的活動 PML 仍然保持穩定。

For the quarter, our consolidated G&A expense ratio, including corporate, was 13.7% and up from 13.4% a year ago. 2024 was an all-around excellent year for AXIS. So there was an accrual for variable compensation, which impacted the ratio in the quarter. For the full year, the G&A ratio was 12.6%, down from 13.5% a year ago with actual dollar spend down 2.7%, inclusive of the higher variable comp. We remain on track to achieve the 11% target for 2026, as we shared with you on Investor Day.

本季度，我們的綜合一般及行政開支率（包括公司費用）為 13.7%，高於去年同期的 13.4%。 2024 年對 AXIS 來說是一個全面輝煌的一年。因此，可變薪酬被計提，從而影響了本季的比率。就全年而言，一般及行政開支比率為 12.6%，低於一年前的 13.5%，實際支出下降 2.7%，其中包括較高的可變薪酬。正如我們在投資者日與您分享的那樣，我們仍有望實現 2026 年 11% 的目標。

I would add that we continue to achieve benefits of the How We Work program, these benefits are more than simply cost reductions, but also improvements in processing and all around productivity. I would also like to mention here that for our full year our other insurance-related income was $30.7 million, which along with over $54 million of expense reimbursement reflects an attractive stream of fee-like earnings derived from our third-party ILS partners including Monarch, Longtail and Harrington Re.

我想補充一點，我們繼續從「我們的工作方式」計畫中獲得益處，這些益處不僅僅是降低成本，而且還提高了處理能力和整體生產力。我還想在這裡提一下，我們全年的其他保險相關收入為 3070 萬美元，加上超過 5400 萬美元的費用報銷，反映了來自我們的第三方 ILS 合作夥伴（包括 Monarch、Longtail 和 Harrington Re）的可觀的類似費用的收入流。

Now let's move on and discuss our segment results in more detail. Insurance had a strong quarter. Gross premiums written were $1.7 billion, an increase of 7.4% compared to the prior year quarter and our highest volume fourth quarter ever for insurance, ending the year with a strong quarter, which will sustain momentum into 2025. For full year, GWP was $6.6 billion, up 7.7%, in line with the guidance we shared with you back in the spring. Across our book, pricing remains highly adequate and we continue to see opportunity to put capital to work at attractive returns above our long-term targets.

現在讓我們繼續更詳細地討論我們的分部結果。保險業本季表現強勁。毛保費收入為 17 億美元，比去年同期增長 7.4%，是我們保險業務歷史上第四季度的最高水平，以強勁的表現結束了這一財年，並將持續保持這一勢頭至 2025 年。全年 GWP 為 66 億美元，成長 7.7%，與我們春季與您分享的指引一致。在我們的帳簿上，定價仍然非常合理，我們繼續看到將資本投入高於我們長期目標的可觀回報的機會。

The fourth quarter insurance combined ratio was an outstanding 91.2%, including 7.8% of cats and weather-related losses and 1.2 points of reserve releases, resulting in $90 million of underwriting income. For the full year, the combined ratio was 89.1% and with 5.5 points of cats and 0.4 point of reserve releases. The acquisition cost ratio of 19.5% was up over the prior year's 18.7%, reflecting mix of business change as we favored short-tail lines over pro lines and cyber.

第四季保險綜合成本率高達 91.2%，其中包括 7.8% 的巨災和天氣相關損失以及 1.2% 的準備金釋放，從而實現 9,000 萬美元的承保收入。全年綜合比率為 89.1%，巨災比率為 5.5%，準備金釋放比率為 0.4。19.5% 的收購成本比率高於去年的 18.7%，這反映了我們更青睞短尾航線而非專業航線和網路航線的變化。

Now let's move on to the reinsurance segment. Gross premiums were up 37% in the quarter. The fourth quarter is our seasonally lowest volume quarter, but we're pleased that about half the quarter's growth came from new business with the balance mostly driven by positive premium adjustments. The biggest driver of growth was A&H, where we closed a couple of new larger quota share contracts, Reported growth in motor and Pro lines was essentially due to premium adjustments.

現在讓我們討論再保險部分。本季毛保費上漲了 37%。第四季是我們季節性銷售最低的季度，但我們很高興看到本季約一半的成長來自新業務，其餘成長主要受到正向保費調整的推動。成長的最大動力是 A&H 保險，我們在該險種上簽訂了幾份新的較大配額份額合同，報告顯示汽車險和專業險的增長主要歸因於保費調整。

In liability lines, we're maintaining a tough stance and being highly selective. For the full year, GWP was up 8% and ahead of the mid-single-digit guidance we gave you back at our Investor Day. The reinsurance team remains focused on the bottom line, and we are pleased with the consistency of the results. 2024 was the first year in many years that reinsurance made a profit in each quarter, a track record we expect will continue.

在責任險方面，我們保持強硬立場並嚴格篩選。就全年而言，GWP 成長了 8%，高於我們在投資者日給出的中等個位數預期。再保險團隊仍然專注於底線，我們對結果的一致性感到滿意。 2024 年是多年以來再保險首次每季都獲利的一年，我們預計這項業績將會持續下去。

The quarter's combined ratio was 90.9%, with an ex-cat with a loss ratio of 66% and with cats of just 0.3 point and 1.2 points of benefit from the reserve releases. For the full year, the combined ratio was 91.8%, with an ex-cat little loss ratio of 66% and and just 0.7 point of cats and a 0.5 point benefit from reserve releases. Our reinsurance G&A ratio was just 4% in the quarter and 3.6% for the full year. The improvement in G&A ratio is driven from lower spending and from higher third-party capital fees, which increased to $54 million for the year, up from $38 million a year ago.

本季的綜合比率為 90.9%，其中，除巨災保險外的損失率為 66%，巨災保險僅為 0.3 個百分點，而從準備金釋放中受益的為 1.2 個百分點。全年綜合比率為 91.8%，其中巨災損失率僅 0.7%，準備金釋放收益為 0.5%。我們的再保險 G&A 比率本季僅為 4%，全年僅為 3.6%。一般行政費用率的改善是由於支出減少和第三方資本費用增加，後者今年的資本費用從一年前的 3,800 萬美元增加到 5,400 萬美元。

We had a strong quarter and year for investment income. In the quarter, investment income was $196 million, up 5% over the prior year quarter. And for the full year, investment income was $759 million up 24%. The increases were driven mainly by higher yield on a larger fixed income portfolio. With increasing stability in our underwriting results, we have moved up marginally in our investment risk appetite with a slightly increased exposure to below BBB rated bonds at year-end, but we remain on the lower end of our stated range of 15% to 20% of the portfolio designated as higher risk.

本季和本年度，我們的投資收益表現強勁。本季，投資收益為1.96億美元，較去年同期成長5%。全年投資收益為 7.59 億美元，成長 24%。成長的主要原因是較大固定收益投資組合的收益率上升。隨著承保業績日趨穩定，我們的投資風險偏好略有上升，年底對 BBB 級以下債券的敞口略有增加，但我們的投資組合中被指定為高風險的 15% 至 20% 的比例仍然處於規定的低端。

The overall outlook remains positive as our book yield on fixed income securities was 4.5% at year-end, while the new money yield was 5.3%, and we continue to generate excellent operating cash flow. Our negative reported tax rate in the quarter had some unusual items, including a true-up to the Bermuda ETA. Excluding these onetime items, the effective tax rate was 5.4% and reflecting the geographic distribution of profits and losses.

整體前景依然樂觀，因為我們的固定收益證券帳面收益率在年底為 4.5%，而新資金收益率為 5.3%，而且我們繼續產生出色的經營現金流。我們本季報告的負稅率有一些不尋常的項目，包括對百慕達電子貿易協定 (ETA) 的修正。除去這些一次性項目，有效稅率為5.4%，反映了利潤和損失的地理分佈。

Looking at the full year, the effective tax rate, excluding the Bermuda ETA and unusual items, was 13.8%, consistent with the 14% range we discussed early in the year. Looking ahead to 2025 and considering our expectations for the geographic spread of profits, we would expect a reported tax rate in the high [teens].

縱觀全年，不包括百慕達ETA和非常規項目的有效稅率為13.8%，與我們年初討論的14%的範圍一致。展望 2025 年，考慮到我們對利潤地理分佈的預期，我們預計報告稅率將處於高位[青少年]。

The priority for capital is to advance our strategic goals, whether it be growth opportunities, including organic growth and the hiring of new teams or investing in our capabilities, such as at scale adoption of digital and analytical capabilities. However, despite our share price hitting new highs in the quarter, we view repurchasing our shares as an attractive option for utilizing our capital.

資本的優先事項是推動我們的策略目標，無論是成長機會（包括有機成長和新團隊的招募），還是投資我們的能力（例如大規模採用數位和分析能力）。然而，儘管我們的股價在本季創下新高，但我們認為回購股票是利用資本的一個有吸引力的選擇。

In the quarter, we returned $97 million to shareholders through $37 million of common share dividends and $60 million of share repurchases. We have $200 million remaining on our repurchase authorization. 2024 was a remarkable year for AXIS. One where we began to realize our potential as a specialty underwriter with a strong balance sheet, improved operating efficiency, significantly reduced underwriting volatility and and a committed team driving profitability, we already have clear line of sight to a strong 2025.

本季度，我們透過 3,700 萬美元的普通股股息和 6,000 萬美元的股票回購向股東返還了 9,700 萬美元。我們的回購授權餘額還剩下 2 億美元。 2024年對AXIS來說是非凡的一年。我們開始認識到我們作為專業承保人的潛力，擁有強大的資產負債表、提高的營運效率、顯著降低的承保波動性和一支致力於推動盈利的團隊，我們已經明確了2025年的強勁目標。

With that, we'd be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will come from Andrew Kligerman with TD Securities.

(操作員指示) 第一個問題來自道明證券的 Andrew Kligerman。

Hey, good morning. So first question is a little multifaceted. Vince, I think I heard you say that US casualty rates in the fourth quarter in insurance were up 29%. Did I hear that right? And what's your outlook for 2025, should we see similar rate increases? And with that, another part to this question, I'm hearing that there's some softness in reinsurance casualty pricing. Could you talk a little bit about that and what you're seeing there and why the disconnect?

嘿，早安。第一個問題有點複雜。文斯，我想我聽你說過美國第四季保險業的傷亡率上漲了 29%。我沒聽錯吧？您對 2025 年的展望如何？ 我們是否會看到類似的利率上漲？關於這個問題的另一部分，我聽說再保險意外險的定價存在一些疲軟現象。您能否稍微談一談這一點以及您看到的情況以及這種脫節的原因？

Yeah. So Andrew, you did hear the correctly. And as we previously discussed, we believe we have to remain in excess of double-digit rate change in that business. Our team has reshaped that portfolio in a very substantial manner. I indicated in my opening remarks, the quantum too, quite a bit of reshaping and eliminating a premium that was not meeting our risk-adjusted return expectations. So we do expect double-digit rates to persist in '25 in liability.

是的。所以安德魯，你確實聽對了。正如我們之前所討論的，我們認為我們必須保持該業務的兩位數以上的利率變化。我們的團隊已經對該投資組合進行了重大重塑。我在開場白中指出，量子也進行了相當多的重塑，並消除了不符合我們風險調整後回報預期的溢價。因此，我們確實預期25年的負債比率將持續維持兩位數。

In respect to reinsurance liability, we've been indicating since '23 Monte Carlo, a caution in respect to liability Re. We continue to price that business with a resurgence of rate in liability Re, double digit in the quarter, about 9.7% for the full year. We'll maintain a cautious underwriting appetite in that line until circumstances change.

對於再保險責任，我們自 23 年蒙特卡洛以來一直在指出，對再保險責任應保持謹慎。我們繼續為該業務定價，責任再保險利率回升，本季達到兩位數，全年約為 9.7%。在情況改變之前，我們將對該領域保持謹慎的承保意願。

Got it. So there is some softness, but what you're doing, you're not allowing for that? Am I reading that properly? .

知道了。因此存在一些柔和性，但你所做的卻不允許這樣做嗎？我讀得正確嗎？。

Well, we did not grow Liability Re in the year, and that was purposeful. We took strengthening actions on a number of cedents in a variety of ways, but mostly relating to either the structure of the programs, ceding commissions we were tolerating or, in fact, we non-renewed a number of cedents that did not meet our underwriting standards.

嗯，我們今年沒有發展責任再保險，這是有目的的。我們以各種方式對一些分保人採取了加強措施，但主要涉及計劃結構、我們容忍的分保佣金，或者事實上，我們不再續簽一些不符合我們承保標準的分保人。

Got it, Vince. And then the next question, which I'm sure you might have expected this to come the wildfires. Could you give a little color on how you think you're going to be exposed?

明白了，文斯。然後是下一個問題，我相信你可能已經預料到會發生野火。您能否稍微說明一下您認為自己將會如何被曝光？

Yes. First, just to iterate my opening remarks, our heartfelt concern goes to all those affected and sincere gratitude to the relief workers and the firefighters. For AXIS, this will not be a material event. Be reminded, pleased that we are a commercial underwriter in the state of California. We are not in the high net worth residential space in the state either. And I would approximate today some 10 basis points to 12 basis points on a market share for us at the end of the day. But again, very early, we have really a strong observation on our exposure in total. Our accounting of claims to date is fairly insubstantial. So that's our view.

是的。首先，我再次重申我的開場白，我們對所有受影響的人們表示衷心的關懷，並向救援人員和消防員表示誠摯的感謝。對於 AXIS 來說，這不是一個重大事件。請記住，我們很高興是加州的商業承銷商。我們也不在該州的高淨值住宅領域。今天我估計我們的市佔率最終會上升 10 到 12 個基點。但是，很早以前，我們就對我們的整體曝光情況進行了嚴格的觀察。到目前為止，我們對索賠的核算相當少。這是我們的觀點。

That's very helpful. And then just one quick one, if I could sneak it in. You talked about an expense ratio of 13.7%. That was a little higher than I would have expected, but you talked about accrual or performance comp that drove it up which sounds like a very good thing because it means that your underwriting was excellent.

這非常有幫助。然後只要快速說一句話，如果我可以偷偷溜進去的話。您談到的費用率為 13.7%。這比我預期的要高一點，但你談到了應計或績效補償，這聽起來是一件非常好的事情，因為這意味著你的承保非常出色。

And so when you said that you're still on track for 11% in could that number be a little higher in '26 if your underwriting is excellent again, but then I suspect it would still be a good thing because the underwriting is excellent. So I just want to make sure I'm following that right.

因此，當您說您仍有望實現 11% 的回報率時，如果承保情況再次出色，那麼 26 年這個數字可能會更高一些，但我認為這仍然是一件好事，因為承保情況非常出色。所以我只是想確保我遵循的是正確的。

So yes, first, I'll start is, Andrew, I appreciate the underwriting is excellent. That's helping drive an operating ROE of 18.6% for the year. So really good underwriting going on, very premium adequate book, and we feel really good about what our teams are executing out there today in the marketplace.

是的，首先，我要說的是，安德魯，我很欣賞承保的優秀性。這有助於推動全年營業 ROE 達到 18.6%。因此，承保情況非常好，帳簿非常優質，我們對我們團隊目前在市場上的表現感到非常滿意。

I would say it may help if I normalize the quarter for you. If we look at the expense ratio normalized in the quarter, the 15.7% would have been about $11.4 million -- so that should give you some view as we enter 2025, we believe that we are on track to hit our 11% G&A goal in 2026. And Vince and I and the team are not coming off of that goal for 2026.

我想說如果我為您規範這個季度，這可能會有所幫助。如果我們看一下本季標準化的費用率，15.7% 應該約為 1,140 萬美元 - 因此，這應該可以讓您對進入 2025 年的情況有所了解，我們相信我們預計在 2026 年實現 11% 的 G&A 目標。文斯、我和團隊都沒有實現 2026 年的目標。

Super helpful. Thanks for taking my questions.

超有幫助。感謝您回答我的問題。

The next question will come from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。

Thank you. Good morning. I want to start with the loss experience in US casualty. And I think you said that the claims patterns are still consistent with the assumptions you set last year. Just want to confirm here, so you've not really in into any risk margin there?

謝謝。早安.我想先從美國傷亡事故的損失經驗說起。我認為您說過索賠模式仍然與您去年設定的假設一致。只是想在這裡確認一下，那麼您實際上並沒有陷入任何風險境地嗎？

I lost you at the end, Yaron, would you say it again?

最後我失去了你，亞龍，你還會再說一次嗎？

I just want to confirm that with claims patterns consistent with your expectations, the risk margin that you set last year is still fully intact.

我只是想確認，在索賠模式與您的預期一致的情況下，您去年設定的風險保證金仍然完全完好。

Yes. I would say, Yaron, this is Pete. Based upon the studies that we did last year and the reserves that we put up last year at the end of 2023, we still feel very confident in those reserves that we put up at that time. we feel very confident about the loss picks that we have for 2024 in our casualty lines of business. And in both those areas, we have been updating those studies and the patterns and what we see coming through in the data has reinforced our confidence. You can never say never, but we feel really good about where we are with our casualty book.

是的。我想說，亞龍，這是皮特。根據我們去年所做的研究以及去年在 2023 年底投入的儲備，我們仍然對當時投入的儲備非常有信心。我們對 2024 年意外險業務的損失選擇非常有信心。在這兩個領域，我們都在更新這些研究，而我們在數據中看到的模式和結果增強了我們的信心。你永遠不能說永遠，但是我們對我們的傷亡帳簿的現狀感到非常滿意。

Great. Consistent with what you've said in the past, I just want to confirm that. And against that kind of 29% rate increase you saw in primary casualty also kind of mid-teen increases in excess casualty. Can you talk about what the loss trends in those lines are? .

偉大的。與您過去所說的一致，我只是想確認這一點。相對於主要傷亡率 29% 的增長，您還會看到超額傷亡率也出現了中等幅度的增長。您能談談這些線路的損失趨勢嗎？。

They're consistent with what we've observed to you in the past and others, Yaron. They're performing in line. The current accident year loss picks are sufficiently strong to contemplate both the portfolio construction, which includes our limit profile and our sustained outbound reinsurance. The prior years are not showing anything that would create noise for us against the assumption set that we put forward as part of our reserve charge.

它們與我們過去向您以及其他人觀察到的情況一致，Yaron。他們正在排隊表演。當前事故年度損失選擇足夠強大，可以考慮投資組合構建，其中包括我們的限額配置和持續的對外再保險。前幾年的情況並未顯示出任何會對我們作為儲備費用一部分提出的假設產生不利影響的跡象。

You have to recall, please that in the primary casualty business, this is a business that was substantially underperforming. As you know from my opening remarks, we eliminated a meaningful percentage of those policyholders, and we are being extremely vigilant about what we're willing to retain, and we're charging what we think is an appropriate rate. And finally, bear in mind that this business is underwritten through the E&S channel, which permits us to be freedom of form and rate in that class.

您必須回想一下，在主要的意外險業務中，這是一項表現嚴重不佳的業務。正如你從我的開場白中所知，我們淘汰了相當大比例的保單持有人，並且我們對願意保留的保單持有人保持高度警惕，並收取我們認為合適的費率。最後，請記住，此業務是透過 E&S 管道承保的，這使得我們能夠自由選擇該類別的形式和費率。

Good point. if I could sneak one more on the wildfires. So I realize you're not really in residential in California. But I think you do have a large species book in London. Do you see any exposures coming through that?

很好的觀點。如果我能再偷偷去撲滅野火的話。所以我知道你實際上並不在加利福尼亞州居住。但我認為倫敦確實有一本大型物種書。您是否看到任何由此產生的曝光？

We do. But again, they're within the tolerance that I indicated, we are a meaningful market in species globally, and we have a line of sight on our exposure in the state of California. But that is contemplated in the range I gave you.

是的。但同樣，它們在我指出的容忍度之內，我們在全球範圍內是物種的重要市場，我們對在加州的風險敞口有一定的了解。但這在我給你的範圍內。

Yes. And I guess -- yes, the only thing I would add on top of that, Yaron, is we do fairly, really good risk management. Again, like you know, on our property book, we got $100 million event deductible, our Specie book runs through our Marine treaty, and that has a $10 million event deductible. So depending upon what happens, we'll have to -- we'll look at it, but that's the deductible. And then obviously, there'll be some rips on top of that. But we feel good about the risk management parameters we've put around that book.

是的。我想——是的，亞倫，我唯一想補充的是，我們的風險管理確實做得相當好。再說一次，如您所知，在我們的財產帳簿上，我們有 1 億美元的事件免賠額，我們的硬幣帳簿貫穿了我們的海洋條約，並且有 1000 萬美元的事件免賠額。因此，根據發生的情況，我們必須 - 我們會考慮它，但這是免賠額。顯然，上面會有一些裂痕。但我們對圍繞該書設定的風險管理參數感到滿意。

Thank you very much, and good luck in the year ahead. Thank you.

非常感謝，祝你來年好運。謝謝。

The next question will come from Brian Meredith with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

Pete, any update on the Bermuda DTA and what could potentially happen here in 2025?

皮特，百慕達 DTA 有什麼最新消息嗎？

Yes, Brian, thanks for the question. The OECD did put out a guidance memo, we'll call it, about two weeks ago. Our expectation is that looking at that, there will need to be some adjustments in time. The way we read that is our expectations is Bermuda or other tax authorities, we'll probably do something before 2027.

是的，布萊恩，謝謝你的提問。大約兩週前，經合組織確實發布了一份我們稱為指導備忘錄的文件。我們的預期是，考慮到這一點，需要及時做出一些調整。我們的預期是，百慕達或其他稅務機關可能會在 2027 年之前採取行動。

It looks like the guidance that's out there right now would suggest that what's been put up for the Bermuda ETA would be acceptable, I'll use that term to the OECD for the first two years of it. So that would be '25 and '26. Thereafter, I think we'll see '27 and outwards actually not come to fruition when I think about it.

看起來，目前的指導意見表明，百慕達電子旅行證 (ETA) 的製定是可以接受的，在 OECD 實施的前兩年，我將使用該術語。所以那將是 '25 和 '26。此後，我認為我們會看到 '27 及以後實際上並未實現。

So maybe you can walk through how accounting-wise, does that mean you're going to have to do something about that remaining DTA that was supposed to be booked post '27 kind of reverse that you think it will happen?

所以也許您可以從會計角度來解釋一下，這是否意味著您必須對原本應該在 27 年之後預訂的剩餘 DTA 採取一些措施，您認為會發生這種逆轉嗎？

Yes. I think something will happen with -- we put up for full year, we actually added a little bit more. We're at $177 million at the end of the year. But then after that, sometime before then, we will actually see that have to get adjusted. Now again, that's going to impact really cash, Brian. So the corporate tax rate in Bermuda is 15% now in 2026 in 2025. But that DTA, we'll make an adjustment to it probably sometime before the end of 2016 when we see what the new tax laws are.

是的。我認為會發生一些事情——我們全年都堅持下去，實際上我們增加了一點點。截至年底，我們的利潤為 1.77 億美元。但在那之後，或者在那之前的某個時候，我們實際上會看到必須進行調整。再次，這將對現金產生真正的影響，布萊恩。因此，百慕達的企業稅率在 2026 年和 2025 年均為 15%。但當我們了解到新的稅法後，我們大概會在 2016 年底之前的某個時候對該 DTA 進行調整。

Makes sense. And then second question, I'm curious, Vince, given the reshaping of the portfolio that you've been doing, anything happened at [1.1] on your seeded reinsurance or anything contemplated in 2025 on seeded reinsurance.

有道理。然後是第二個問題，我很好奇，文斯，考慮到你一直在進行的投資組合重塑，你的種子再保險在 [1.1] 時發生了什麼，或者在 2025 年種子再保險方面有什麼打算。

Well, Brian, we had about five placements at the [1.1]. I think of note would be our cyber outbound reinsurance, which was, frankly, a very successful outcome. We bought a bit more tail cover. We improved our cede by about 3 -- excuse me, 4 points. And we felt very good about the recognition of the reinsurance panel that supports that business.

布萊恩，我們在[1.1]。我認為值得注意的是我們的網路出境再保險，坦白說，這是一個非常成功的結果。我們買了更多的尾蓋。我們的分數提高了大約 3 —— 對不起，是 4 個百分點。我們對支持該業務的再保險小組的認可感到非常高興。

Other lines that we place included construction and marine and renewable energy, some big placements for us there, again, we had a mix of change of positive changes either relating to the cede commission or our participation rate. I did fail to mention in cyber, we actually assumed an additional percentage of some 4 percentage points at this renewal as well.

我們投資的其他行業包括建築、海洋和再生能源，我們在那裡進行了一些重大投資，同樣，我們發生了與割讓佣金或參與率有關的積極變化。我確實沒有提到在網路方面，我們實際上也假設在這次續約中額外增加了約 4 個百分點。

Got you. That's great. And then -- so does that mean that perhaps as we look into 2025, that we'll see in the insurance segment maybe a reversal of the decline in premium we're seeing, is that reshaping kind of done at this point?

明白了。那太棒了。那麼 —— 那麼這是否意味著，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們可能會看到保險領域保費下降的趨勢出現逆轉，這種重塑是否在此時完成了？

Brian, in the third quarter, we mentioned that we would probably extend into the 25-year the delegated component of the reshaping effort, that quantum of premium is less than $100 million, and it's predominantly in the first half of the year.

布萊恩，在第三季度，我們提到，我們可能會將重塑工作的委託部分延長至 25 年，保費金額不到 1 億美元，而且主要發生在上半年。

So I would suggest to you that, that growth rate will be ameliorated, but it's not going to happen in the first half of the year. You'll continue to hear Pete and myself target very specific customer segments geographically and by size of customer. We gave direction of that -- in our opening remarks, we grew the large North American customer base about 13%.

因此，我認為成長率將會改善，但這不會在上半年發生。您將繼續聽到 Pete 和我根據地理位置和客戶規模來定位非常特定的客戶群。我們在開場白中給出了方向，我們的北美客戶群成長了約 13%。

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you.

偉大的。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Next question comes from Josh Shanker, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Thank you very much for taking my question. Obviously, the wildfires are a tragic situation, we've had a another statin tragic situation happened this morning, aviation and you're still a player in that market. It's been a long time since say, a commercial airline has gone down in American soil. Obviously, we don't know all the details yet. But I have a number of questions to understand if the federal government were responsible for a crash mid-air -- is the private market responsible for that loss?

非常感謝您回答我的問題。顯然，野火是一場悲劇，今天早上我們又經歷了一場悲劇，航空業，而你仍然是該市場的參與者。距離上一次在美國本土墜毀商業航空公司已經過了很長時間。顯然，我們還不知道全部的細節。但我有幾個問題想了解，如果聯邦政府對空中墜機事件負有責任，那麼私人市場是否要為此損失負責？

And regardless, would the claims be paid in advance and later found out culpability and whatnot. Can you talk a little bit about what might happen? I realize you don't have the details, but we lean a bit about the market?

而且不管怎樣，索賠是否會先支付，然後才發現責任等等。能否稍微談談可能發生的情況？我知道您不了解詳細信息，但我們對市場有一點了解？

Josh, this is Vince. Sorry for the pause. I honestly don't have enough of the facts or information to even respond to your fact pattern. And what I can tell you is that with some degree of qualification, we don't believe we're on the American plane -- and to your more direct point, it is tragic, as respect to liability and the government, I'd have to look at it in totality to give you an informed point of view.

喬希，這是文斯。抱歉，暫停了。說實話，我甚至沒有足夠的事實或資訊來回應你的事實模式。我可以告訴你的是，從某種程度上來說，我們不認為我們與美國處於同一水平——對於你更直接的觀點，這是一個悲劇，至於責任和政府，我必須全面地看待它，才能給你一個明智的看法。

Okay. That's perfectly reasonable. Pete, can you talk about the goodwill adjustment in the quarter?

好的。這非常合理。皮特，你能談談本季的商譽調整嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Josh. You'll see we made an adjustment to goodwill in the quarter. That actually goes back to the Nova transaction we did in 2017. We look back then, we evaluated the situation. We had a deferred tax asset that should have been put up in 2017. And so we actually made the adjustment in the balance sheet this quarter. And when we put that deferred tax asset up, that actually reduced then the goodwill just by a straight calculation.

是的。謝謝，喬希。您會看到我們在本季對商譽進行了調整。這實際上可以追溯到我們在 2017 年進行的 Nova 交易。我們當時回顧並評估了情況。我們有一項遞延稅項資產，本應在 2017 年計入。因此我們實際上在本季度對資產負債表進行了調整。當我們將該遞延稅務資產增加時，透過直接計算，這實際上減少了​​商譽。

So it was a true-up from deferred taxes back to that 2017 transaction. we think that actually closes out basically all the views we have on the transaction. So good news, it's not anything to do with an impairment or anything like that. It was a straight change in a deferred tax asset that should have been put up back in 2017.

因此，這是從遞延稅項追溯到 2017 年交易的補充。我們認為這實際上基本上結束了我們對這筆交易的所有看法。好消息是，這與損傷或諸如此類的事情無關。這是遞延稅項資產的直接變動，本應在 2017 年計入。

All right. And one more quick one, and Cliff mostly set me straight, but I just -- maybe it's good to get on the transcript here. The closure of the LPT sometime in the first half of the year, I mean, I have it in 2Q, is there any more precision we can get around that.

好的。還有一個快速問題，Cliff 基本上糾正了我，但我只是 — — 也許最好在這裡記錄一下。LPT 將在上半年某個時候關閉，我的意思是，我在第二季度就已經知道了，我們能更精確地了解一下嗎？

Josh, this is Pete again. We're going through really two regulators. I think your middle of 2Q is as best a guess as we have also, obviously, as soon as we get the approvals, we'll be able to move forward with the deal and we'll let you know. But I will tell you, everything has been filed, and it's with the regulators, and we're just waiting to hear.

喬希，我又是皮特。我們實際上正在經歷兩個監管機構。我認為您對第二季中期業績的預測和我們一樣準確，顯然，一旦我們獲得批准，我們就能推進交易，並會通知您。但我會告訴你，所有文件都已歸檔，並已交由監管機構處理，我們只是在等待消息。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The next question will come from Charlie Lederer with BMO Row.

下一個問題來自 BMO Row 的 Charlie Lederer。

Hi. Thanks. Just on that last question. I think I heard you guys say in the past that the investment income and the LPT would begin to impact in 1Q. I just want to make sure that's the case.

你好。謝謝。只關於最後一個問題。我想我以前聽你們說過投資收益和 LPT 將在第一季開始產生影響。我只是想確認情況確實如此。

The investment income on the LPT, Charlie, this is Pete. We'll actually start to impact us after the close of the transaction. So if it actually hits in 2Q, it won't affect 1Q net investment income.

LPT 上的投資收益，Charlie，這是 Pete。交易結束後我們實際上就會開始受到影響。因此，如果它真的在第二季爆發，它不會影響第一季的淨投資收益。

Okay. Got it. And you guys provided some helpful color on the fee income tailwinds you guys have had. Can you talk about the sustainability of that growth? And how we should expect that to impact your expense ratio in '25?

好的。知道了。你們為你們的費用收入順風提供了一些有益的資訊。您能談談這種成長的可持續性嗎？我們預計這會對您 25 年的費用率產生什麼影響？

I would say that what we actually talked to you about in '24 would be consistent in '25. It is a great partnership we have with really three of our ILS partners, we were on the forefront a number of years ago at using ILS and having great investment partners to handle reinsurance, long-tail liabilities.

我想說的是，我們在 24 年與您討論的內容在 25 年將會保持一致。我們與三家 ILS 合作夥伴建立了非常好的合作關係，幾年前我們在使用 ILS 方面處於領先地位，並且擁有優秀的投資夥伴來處理再保險和長尾負債。

We've really leaned into that, really great for our underwriters on the front side because they actually get, I'll call it, bigger limits and more capacity to put out there, and we have great partnerships on the back end and our expectation is you're going to see consistency as we go into 2025. I don't know, Vince, if you want to add to that? .

我們確實已經傾向於這樣做，這對我們前端的承保人來說真的很棒，因為他們實際上獲得了更大的限額和更多的承保能力，而且我們在後端擁有良好的合作夥伴關係，我們期望在進入 2025 年時您會看到一致性。我不知道，文斯，你是否想補充一點？。

I just would add one comment, Charlie. I think it's also a testimony of the confidence in the underwriting of our team as viewed by these independent investors. So we take pride in that as well.

我只想補充一則評論，查理。我想這也證明了這些獨立投資者對我們團隊承保的信心。因此我們也對此感到自豪。

That's helpful. And maybe just going back to the expense ratio conversation. I guess as the underwriting durability continues to prove itself out, should we think about embedding more variable comp in a quarterly run rate? Or is it really more of a 4Q true-up type of item going forward?

這很有幫助。也許我們只是回到費用率的話題。我想，隨著承保耐久性不斷證明自己，我們是否應該考慮在季度運行率中嵌入更多的可變補償？或者它實際上更像是第四季度的真實項目？

Charlie, this is Pete. It's really more of a 4Q true-up item, given that we are still even in the cat business and anything can happen in the year to start thinking about variable comp in 1Q, while I'll be excited to report solid results to the Street in the first quarter 2025. That would be a little -- that'll be a little forward of us to start to accrue variable comp in 1Q and 2Q.

查理，這是皮特。這實際上更像是第四季度的調整項目，因為我們仍然從事貓業務，今年可能會發生任何事情，從而開始考慮第一季度的可變薪酬，同時我很高興在 2025 年第一季度向華爾街報告穩健的業績。這會有點—這會有點提前於我們在第一季和第二季開始累積可變薪酬。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next question will come from Hristian Getsov with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Hristian Getsov。

Hi. Good morning. I had a question on the premium growth trends for 2025. You talked about kind of the new business initiatives that you laid out at the Investor Day and you gave some quantification kind of around the uptick in but how should we think about those initiatives impacting 2025 premium?

你好。早安.我對 2025 年的保費成長趨勢有疑問。您談到了在投資者日提出的新業務計劃，並對成長進行了量化，但我們應該如何看待這些計劃對 2025 年保費的影響？

Harrison, good morning. Hristian, 2024 was a pivotal year in laying foundation for the sustainability of our profitable growth ambition. As you know, we brought a number of our product capabilities from global markets within our insurance business to North America. They were successfully integrated into our operations. We brought additional new capabilities and they're off to a really good start.

哈里森，早安。Hristian，2024 年是我們實現永續性獲利成長目標奠定基礎的關鍵一年。如您所知，我們將保險業務中的許多產品從全球市場帶到了北美。他們已成功融入我們的營運。我們帶來了額外的新功能，並且取得了良好的開端。

We have confidence in the sustainability of those investments, including the commentary that Pete offered with respect to how we work transformation program, which has done a very good job of making certain that we have the operating infrastructure to support the growth.

我們對這些投資的可持續性充滿信心，包括 Pete 對我們的工作轉型計劃所提出的評論，這很好地確保了我們擁有支持成長的營運基礎設施。

So I think it's reasonable to see sustained mid- to high single-digit growth in 2025 and from our insurance operation. Moreover, I would say that the sustained success of our reinsurance business growing its specialty lines focused classes should sustain itself as well. They had a very good year in 2024, a lot of foundational work.

因此，我認為，到 2025 年，我們的保險業務將持續保持中高個位數成長是合理的。此外，我想說，我們的再保險業務在專業線路重點類別的成長也應該能持續成功。2024 年是他們非常好的一年，做了很多基礎工作。

And I'm frankly encouraged and look forward to speaking about 1Q on the pipeline that they've generated, which is quite distinct from prior periods in the specialty classes. So net-net, we still view ourselves as a growth-orientated company. We have sufficient premium adequacy to guide that profitability journey, and we look forward to executing it in the market.

坦白說，我感到非常鼓舞，並期待在第一季談論他們所產生的管道，這與專業課程的前期有很大不同。所以總體而言，我們仍然將自己視為一家成長型公司。我們擁有足夠的保費充足率來引導獲利之路，我們期待在市場上實現它。

Got you. And then how should we think about the use of the capital that's free from the LPT -- is kind of the Q4 buyback a good run rate kind of moving forward? Or how should we think about like the allocation of that capital?

明白了。那麼，我們應該如何考慮使用免於 LPT 的資本——第四季度的回購是否是良好的運行率？或者我們應該如何考慮這些資本的分配？

Hristian, Pete laid out at our Investor Day, the uses of capital that range from the continuation of investing in our business, attracting new talent investing back inside our company as part of our -- How We Work initiative to certainly maintain opportunistic posture relative to buying back our stock and certainly a very, very high bar on an inorganic. But the principal uses, and we're going to continue to execute on that playbook. Pete, I don't know if you want to come over the top.

克里斯蒂安·皮特在我們的投資者日上詳細闡述了資本的用途，包括繼續投資我們的業務，吸引新的人才重新投資我們公司，作為我們的“我們如何工作”計劃的一部分，以確保保持相對於回購我們股票的機會主義姿態，當然還有非常非常高的無機標準。但主要用途是，我們將繼續執行這個劇本。皮特，我不知道你是否想超越我。

No. I think Vince hit everything that I spoke about last May and have continued to reiterate since then. I would remind you, with the transaction not closed yet. So we are looking forward here with that kind of commentary. But but we do see really good opportunities in the market still today. And we do think our shares are undervalued as we sit here today.

不。我認為文斯觸及了我去年五月談到的一切，並且從那時起我一直在重申這一點。我想提醒您，交易尚未結束。因此，我們期待這樣的評論。但是，我們今天仍然確實看到市場上存在著良好的機會。我們確實認為，就目前情況而言，我們的股票被低估了。

Got you. And one more, if I may. On the California wildfires, I guess, what are you guys I know it's very early on and no one knows the losses yet. But what do you think about like implications kind of for the later renewals? You kind of have some nationwide programs and some other stuff that renews a little later on. And I don't know if you have a view on 2026. It might be too early, but how do you view that event impacting pricing for prop cat specifically -- or sorry, property?

明白了。如果可以的話，我還要再說一句。關於加州山火，我想，你們怎麼樣？但您認為這對以後的續約有何影響？你有一些全國性的計劃和一些稍後會更新的其他東西。我不知道您對 2026 年有何看法。現在可能還為時過早，但您如何看待該事件對道具貓（或抱歉，房地產）定價的影響？

Yes, I think you mean in the balance of '25, I think it remains to be seen. -- look, it was $136-odd billion a year in catastrophes. And so we'll see how the marketplace responds I don't think we have enough time elapse to give you an informed view.

是的，我想你的意思是在 25 的平衡中，我認為這還有待觀察。 ——你看，每年的災難造成的損失高達 1,360 億美元。因此，我們將觀察市場如何反應，我認為我們沒有足夠的時間來為您提供明智的看法。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Vince Tizzio, CEO, for any closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議交還給執行長 Vince Tizzio 先生，請他作最後發言。先生，請繼續。

Thank you all for joining today's call. Thank you once again to our Axis colleagues worldwide as well as to our valued strategic brokers for their partnership in 2024. And -- this completes today's call, and we look forward to reporting our continued progress in future calls. Thank you.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。再次感謝我們全球的 Axis 同事以及我們尊貴的策略經紀人在 2024 年的合作。今天的電話會議到此結束，我們期待在未來的電話會議中報告我們持續的進展。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。