American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Betsy, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

早安.我叫貝琪，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加美國車橋製造公司 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的通話正在被錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

現在我想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生。請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's second-quarter earnings call. Now earlier this morning, we released our second quarter of 2025 earnings announcement, and you could access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find the supplemental slides for this conference call on the Investor page of our website as well.

謝謝大家，早安。我歡迎所有參加 AAM 第二季財報電話會議的人。今天早上，我們發布了 2025 年第二季財報公告，您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面或透過 PR Newswire 服務造訪此公告。您也可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。

In addition, to listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1 (877) 344-7529; replay access code, 6368162. This replay will be available through August 15. Now before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

此外，若要收聽本次通話的重播，您可以撥打1（877）344-7529；重播接入​​碼為6368162。該重播將持續到 8 月 15 日。現在，在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含評論和前瞻性陳述，這些評論和前瞻性陳述受到無法預測或量化的風險和不確定性的影響，並且可能導致未來的活動和經營結果與討論的內容存在重大差異。

For additional information, please reference slide 2 of our investor presentation or the press release that was issued today. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available in the presentation.

欲了解更多信息，請參考我們投資者簡報的第 2 張幻燈片或今天發布的新聞稿。此外，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的資訊以及非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標與公認會計準則 (GAAP) 財務資訊的對帳可在簡報中查閱。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

接下來，請容許我將發言權交給 AAM 董事長兼執行長 David Dauch。

Thank you, David. And good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the second quarter of 2025. Joining me on the call today is Christopher May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. To begin, I'll review the highlights of our second-quarter financial performance. Then I will touch on some commentary about AAM's recent business developments and discuss guidance. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we will open up the call for any questions that you all may have. So let's begin.

謝謝你，大衛。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2025 年第二季的財務表現。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 的執行副總裁兼財務長 Christopher May。首先，我將回顧我們第二季財務表現的亮點。然後，我將談一些有關 AAM 最近業務發展的評論並討論指導。在克里斯介紹完我們的財務結果細節後，我們將開始電話會議，回答大家可能提出的任何問題。那麼就讓我們開始吧。

AAM's second-quarter 2025 sales were $1.54 billion. AAM's adjusted earnings per share was $0.21 per share. Operating cash flow was $91.9 million and adjusted free cash flow was approximately $49 million. From a profitability perspective, AAM posted year-over-year adjusted EBITDA margin growth in the second quarter driven by productivity and cost controls. AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $202 million or 13.2% of sales, a 40-basis-point improvement versus last year, even with lower sales and a 60-basis-point improvement sequentially.

AAM 2025 年第二季的銷售額為 15.4 億美元。 AAM 的調整後每股收益為0.21美元。經營現金流為 9,190 萬美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 4,900 萬美元。從獲利能力角度來看，受生產力和成本控制的推動，AAM 第二季調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率較去年同期成長。AAM 第二季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.02 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.2%，與去年相比提高了 40 個基點，儘管銷售額有所下降，且環比提高了 60 個基點。

Let me talk about some fantastic updates driving our business on all fronts, which you can see on slide 4 of our investor deck. We are excited this year. Both AAM and Dowlais shareholders voted for and in favor of the proposed transaction to create a leading global Driveline and Metal Forming supplier with significant size and scale and with strong customer and geographic diversification. Great news.

讓我來談談推動我們業務各個方面發展的一些精彩更新，您可以在我們的投資者簡報的第 4 張投影片上看到。今年我們很興奮。AAM 和 Dowlais 的股東均投票贊成擬議的交易，以創建一家規模龐大、客戶和地理多元化的全球領先傳動系統和金屬成型供應商。好消息。

The complementary nature of the two businesses and anticipate to generate significant shareholder value, yielding an estimated $300 million of cost synergies and strong free cash flow potential. With the positive vote results, we have passed a significant process in our milestone.

兩家公司業務互補，預計將產生巨大的股東價值，產生約 3 億美元的成本綜效和強勁的自由現金流潛力。隨著投票結果的積極，我們已通過了里程碑中的一個重要進程。

On the regulatory front, AAM continues to make great progress. Approvals have been received from the US, Korea, India, Taiwan, Turkey, and the UK. And the regulatory approval process in Brazil, China, Mexico and the EU are making excellent progress. From a product win perspective, AAM announced in the quarter it has secured an agreement with Scout Motors to supply both front electric drive units and rear e-Beam axles for the much anticipated launch of the all-new electric traveler SUV and Terra pickup truck.

在監管方面，AAM 繼續取得巨大進展。已獲得美國、韓國、印度、台灣、土耳其和英國的批准。巴西、中國、墨西哥和歐盟的監管審批程序也取得了良好進展。從產品獲勝的角度來看，AAM 在本季宣布已與 Scout Motors 達成協議，為備受期待的全新電動旅行 SUV 和 Terra 皮卡車提供前電驅動裝置和後電子樑軸。

Both products can be configured with 100% battery electric or range-extended systems. We are honored to support the rebirth of the iconic Scout brand and play a significant role in these important vehicle launches with AAM's award-winning electric drive technology. We anticipate start of production in 2027. This business award supports our selective and targeted electrification growth strategy. It also highlights the depth and breadth of our comprehensive product portfolio, including electric drive units and rear e-Beam axles.

兩種產品均可配置 100% 電池電動或增程系統。我們很榮幸能夠支持標誌性 Scout 品牌的重生，並利用 AAM 屢獲殊榮的電力驅動技術在這些重要的車輛發布中發揮重要作用。我們預計將於 2027 年開始生產。該商業獎項支持我們有選擇性和有針對性的電氣化成長策略。它也凸顯了我們全面的產品組合的深度和廣度，包括電驅動裝置和後電子梁軸。

In addition, we have also closed on our divestiture of AAM's India commercial axle business to Bharat Forge Limited on July 1 for approximately $65 million. The sale is a result of our focus to create a long-term value for our stakeholders through our portfolio evaluation and management process. Even with all this exciting activity, we continue to manage our day-to-day businesses as evidenced by our second-quarter results, our focus on operational excellence to control costs, enhance quality, and boost productivity.

此外，我們也於 7 月 1 日以約 6,500 萬美元的價格將 AAM 的印度商用車軸業務剝離給 Bharat Forge Limited。此次出售是我們致力於透過投資組合評估和管理流程為利害關係人創造長期價值的結果。即使有這些令人興奮的活動，我們仍繼續管理我們的日常業務，正如我們的第二季業績所證明的那樣，我們專注於卓越營運以控製成本、提高品質和提高生產力。

AAM's goals continuous improvement, and this was on full display in the quarter as our Driveline unit experienced margin growth versus last year and our Metal Forming group has now tailored five consecutive quarters of year-over-year margin expansion. In addition, as an overall industry volumes experienced a decline in the quarter, a number of our key truck and SUV programs outperformed the industry, and we expect this to continue, stemming from consumer preferences of these vehicle segments.

AAM 的目標是持續改進，這一點在本季度得到了充分展示，因為我們的傳動系統部門的利潤率與去年相比有所增長，而我們的金屬成型集團現已連續五個季度實現利潤率同比增長。此外，由於本季整個行業銷售出現下滑，我們的一些主要卡車和 SUV 項目表現優於行業，我們預計這種情況將持續下去，這源於消費者對這些車輛領域的偏好。

It's also evident that ICE and ICE hybrid vehicles will have longevity due to American consumer preferences, coupled with recent changes in government policy and incentives. Although AAM is prepared for electrification, a longer ICE tail is good for AAM as we can further leverage our installed fixed asset base and core products.

顯然，由於美國消費者的偏好，加上政府政策和激勵措施的近期變化，ICE 和 ICE 混合動力車將擁有長久的生命力。儘管 AAM 已為電氣化做好了準備，但更長的 ICE 尾部對 AAM 有利，因為我們可以進一步利用我們已安裝的固定資產基礎和核心產品。

Now let's shift and talk about one of the elements that we are actively managing, trade and tariffs. As we all experienced, trade policies can pivot quickly. And with that said, I want to briefly touch on several points on how AAM is well positioned to handle this volatility. As we've communicated before, AAM's policy is to buy and build locals. As such, approximately 90% of the products that we produce in North America are already USMCA compliant and we are working to increase that percentage on a go-forward basis.

現在讓我們轉而討論我們正在積極管理的因素之一，即貿易和關稅。正如我們都經歷過的那樣，貿易政策可以迅速轉變。話雖如此，我想簡要地談談 AAM 如何應對這種波動的幾點。正如我們之前所傳達的，AAM 的政策是購買和建造本地產品。因此，我們在北美生產的約 90% 的產品已經符合 USMCA 標準，我們正在努力提高這一比例。

For our North American production needs, nearly all of our steel aluminum buy is from US sources. We do have some open capacity to relocate manufacturing to the US if needed, and we continue to receive positive business inquiries in our US Metal Forming business unit. Additionally, we will continue to work closely with our customers to mitigate the majority of our -- of the incremental tariff costs and/or pursue recoveries with them.

為了滿足我們在北美的生產需求，我們幾乎所有的鋼鋁採購都來自美國。如果需要，我們確實有一些開放的產能可以將製造業務轉移到美國，並且我們在美國金屬成型業務部門繼續收到積極的業務諮詢。此外，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，以減輕大部分增量關稅成本和/或與他們一起尋求回收。

Transitioning to our guidance, we updated our 2025 financial guidance ranges on the strength of our first-half results and the resiliency of some of our key product segments. AAM is now targeting sales of $5.75 billion to $5.95 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $695 million to $745 million, and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $175 million to $215 million. Our guidance ranges are supported by an assumed North American production volume of 14.6 million to 15.1 million units. Chris will provide additional details on the assumptions underpinning our guidance.

在轉向我們的指導時，我們根據上半年業績的強勁程度和一些關鍵產品部門的彈性更新了 2025 年財務指導範圍。AAM 目前的目標銷售額為 57.5 億美元至 59.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 6.95 億美元至 7.45 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 1.75 億美元至 2.15 億美元。我們的指導範圍基於假設的北美產量為 1,460 萬至 1,510 萬輛。克里斯將提供有關我們指導依據的假設的更多細節。

In summary, AAM had strong first-half performance while successfully navigating market uncertainties and changes in trade policy. Additionally, we continue to make progress in cost control, driving margin performance. Concurrently, we continue to advance the Dowlais acquisition by achieving shareholder approvals and making progress on the regulatory matters. We still expect the deal to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. This deal will transform AAM into a premier Driveline and Metal Forming supplier with increased size and scale, positioned to deliver shareholder value.

總而言之，AAM 上半年業績表現強勁，同時成功應對市場不確定性和貿易政策變化。此外，我們在成本控制方面持續取得進展，推動利潤率表現。同時，我們繼續推動 Dowlais 收購案，爭取股東批准並在監管事宜上取得進展。我們仍然預計該交易將於 2025 年第四季完成。此交易將使 AAM 轉型成為一家規模和實力均有提升的頂級傳動系統和金屬成型供應商，從而為股東創造價值。

And with that, let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May, for the second-quarter financial details. Chris?

現在，請允許我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯梅 (Chris May)，以了解第二季的財務細節。克里斯？

Thank you, David. And good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our second-quarter 2025 results and our updated guidance with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's go ahead and begin with sales. In the second quarter of 2025, AAM sales were $1.54 billion compared to $1.63 billion in the second quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，大衛。大家早安。今天我將向您介紹我們 2025 年第二季業績的財務細節和最新指引。我還將參考收益投影片作為我準備好的評論的一部分。那麼就讓我們繼續從銷售開始。2025 年第二季度，AAM 銷售額為 15.4 億美元，而 2024 年第二季為 16.3 億美元。

Slide 7 shows a walk of second quarter 2024 sales to second quarter 2025 sales. Volume, mix, and other was lower by approximately $102 million, primarily driven by lower overall volumes compared to a year ago. Metal market pass-throughs and FX increased sales by approximately $11 million. The majority of this is related to foreign exchange, particularly from the strengthening euro.

投影片 7 展示了 2024 年第二季至 2025 年第二季的銷售額變化。銷量、產品組合和其他方面下降了約 1.02 億美元，主要原因是與一年前相比整體銷量下降。金屬市場轉嫁和外匯使銷售額增加了約 1,100 萬美元。其中大部分與外匯有關，特別是歐元走強。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $200.7 million in the second quarter of 2025 as compared to $217.3 million in the second quarter of 2024. For the second quarter of 2025, adjusted EBITDA was $202.2 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 13.2% versus $208.4 million and 12.8% last year.

現在讓我們討論獲利能力。2025 年第二季毛利為 2.007 億美元，而 2024 年第二季毛利為 2.173 億美元。2025 年第二季度，調整後 EBITDA 為 2.022 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 13.2%，而去年同期分別為 2.084 億美元和 12.8%。

You can see a year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on slide 8. In the quarter, adjusted EBITDA was lower due to volume mix and other by $23 million versus the prior year, resulting in a decremental margin of approximately 23%. R&D was lower year over year by $8 million as we continue to optimize our engineering spend. And lastly, performance and other was favorable by $9 million.

您可以在第 8 張投影片上看到調整後的 EBITDA 年比下降情況。本季度，由於銷售組合及其他因素，調整後的 EBITDA 較上年同期下降 2,300 萬美元，導致利潤率下降約 23%。由於我們不斷優化工程支出，研發費用較去年同期下降了 800 萬美元。最後，業績和其他方面表現良好，增幅達 900 萬美元。

This year-over-year favorability was driven by adjusted EBITDA margin improvements by both of AAM's business units. Driveline's margin increased approximately 30 basis points to 13.8%, while Metal Forming margins increased approximately 20 basis points to 8.9% from last year. AAM remains focused on productivity, efficiency, and cost optimization in all areas of our business. And our trends and results are demonstrating this.

年比成長的動力來自於 AAM 兩個業務部門調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率的提高。Driveline 的利潤率比去年同期增加了約 30 個基點，達到 13.8%，而金屬成型的利潤率則增加了約 20 個基點，達到 8.9%。AAM 始終專注於我們業務所有領域的生產力、效率和成本優化。我們的趨勢和結果證明了這一點。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the second quarter of 2025 was $100.8 million or 6.6% of sales. This compares to $105.2 million or 6.4% of sales in the second quarter of 2024. AAM's R&D spending in the second quarter of 2025 was approximately $36 million. For the full year, we continue to anticipate R&D expense to be down on a year-over-year basis by approximately $20 million, resulting from current market requirements and continued focus on spend optimization.

現在讓我來介紹一下銷售、一般和行政費用。2025 年第二季包括研發在內的銷售、一般及行政費用為 1.008 億美元，佔銷售額的 6.6%。相比之下，2024 年第二季的銷售額為 1.052 億美元，佔 6.4%。AAM 在 2025 年第二季的研發支出約為 3,600 萬美元。就全年而言，我們預計研發費用將年減約 2,000 萬美元，這是由於當前的市場需求和對支出優化的持續關注。

Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $37.5 million in the second quarter of 2025 compared to $41.8 million in the second quarter of 2024. Our lower interest expense was due to lower weighted average interest rates of our outstanding long-term debt and lower year-over-year debt balances. In the second quarter of 2025, we recorded income tax expense of $28.1 million compared to $17.2 million in the second quarter of 2024.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。2025 年第二季淨利息支出為 3,750 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 4,180 萬美元。我們的利息支出較低是由於我們未償還長期債務的加權平均利率較低以及債務餘額同比較低。2025 年第二季度，我們的所得稅支出為 2,810 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 1,720 萬美元。

For the full year of 2025, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 50%. This elevated book tax rate is due to valuation allowances on certain foreign jurisdictions and interest deduction limitations in the US. This book rate excludes the potential benefits from recent US tax legislation. We are evaluating the full impact of this legislation, and we would expect to reflect any benefits in the third quarter.

對於 2025 年全年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率約為 50%。帳面稅率的提高是由於某些外國司法管轄區的估價津貼和美國的利息扣除限制。該帳面利率不包括近期美國稅法帶來的潛在利益。我們正在評估這項立法的全部影響，並預計在第三季反映出任何好處。

As for cash taxes, we expect approximately $70 million to $75 million this year. Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $39.3 million or $0.32 per share in the second quarter of 2025 compared to net income of $18.2 million or $0.15 per share in the second quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was $0.21 per share in the second quarter of 2025 compared to earnings per share of $0.19 for the second quarter of 2024.

至於現金稅，我們預計今年約為 7,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元。考慮到所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素，我們 2025 年第二季的 GAAP 淨收入為 3,930 萬美元或每股 0.32 美元，而 2024 年第二季的淨收入為 1,820 萬美元或每股 0.15 美元。調整後每股收益（不包括我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）在 2025 年第二季度為每股 0.21 美元，而 2024 年第二季度的每股收益為 0.19 美元。

Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the second quarter of 2025 was $91.9 million compared to $142.8 million in the second quarter of 2024. Capital expenditures, net of the proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment for the second quarter of 2025 were $52.9 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the second quarter of 2025 were $9.7 million.

現在讓我們討論現金流和資產負債表。2025 年第二季經營活動提供的淨現金為 9,190 萬美元，而 2024 年第二季為 1.428 億美元。2025 年第二季的資本支出（扣除出售財產、廠房及設備所得收益）為 5,290 萬美元。2025 年第二季重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 970 萬美元。

Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was $48.7 million in the second quarter of 2025. From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.0 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $715 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 2.8 times at June 30, 2025. We also maintained a strong cash position of nearly $600 million. AAM ended the quarter with total available liquidity of over $1.5 billion, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on our global credit facilities.

反映這些活動的影響，AAM 2025 年第二季的調整後自由現金流為 4,870 萬美元。從債務槓桿的角度來看，本季末我們的淨負債為 20 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 7.15 億美元，計算出 2025 年 6 月 30 日的淨槓桿率為 2.8 倍。我們也維持了近 6 億美元的強勁現金狀況。AAM 本季結束時總可用流動資金超過 15 億美元，包括可用現金和全球信貸額度的借貸能力。

Before we dive a little deeper into our updated guidance, let's touch on tariffs. As a quick reminder, the following is our potential direct tariff exposure profile. Both of the products we ship to our customers in North America are USMCA compliant. Almost all of our AAM steel and aluminum consumed in North America is from US-based sources. So we are generally in a very good spot with these commodities.

在我們深入了解更新後的指南之前，讓我們先來談談關稅。簡單提醒一下，以下是我們潛在的直接關稅風險概況。我們運送給北美客戶的兩種產品都符合 USMCA 標準。我們在北美消費的 AAM 鋼鐵和鋁幾乎全部來自美國。因此，整體而言，我們在這些商品方面處於非常有利的地位。

For our US operations, we import from Mexico approximately $100 million on an annual basis, the majority of which is USMCA compliant. We import from Canada approximately $25 million on an annual basis, the majority of which is also USMCA compliant. We directly import very little from China into the US and therefore have very minimal exposures here.

對於我們的美國業務，我們每年從墨西哥進口約 1 億美元，其中大部分符合 USMCA 規定。我們每年從加拿大進口約 2,500 萬美元，其中大部分也符合 USMCA 規定。我們從中國直接進口到美國的商品很少，因此在這裡的風險敞口非常小。

And lastly, AAM's Rest of the World import exposures are approximately $100 million of annualized values, and we are working to mitigate these exposures plus any additional exposures our supply base may have while gaining clarity on final tariff agreements. Our intent is to mitigate a majority of incremental tariff costs, which include working with our OEM customers to receive recoveries.

最後，AAM 在世界其他地區的進口風險敞口約為 1 億美元的年化價值，我們正在努力減輕這些風險敞口以及我們的供應基地可能面臨的任何其他風險敞口，同時明確最終關稅協議。我們的目的是減輕大部分增量關稅成本，包括與我們的 OEM 客戶合作以獲得回收。

Given the nature of this process, the timing of recoveries can lag. As such, we incurred incremental tariff costs of approximately $10 million in the second quarter. We are assuming to receive offsets starting in the second half of the year. We anticipate the full-year 2025 net impact to be approximately $10 million to $15 million after mitigation and customer recoveries. With that background in place, let's talk about our guidance on slide 5.

鑑於此過程的性質，復甦的時間可能會滯後。因此，我們在第二季產生了約 1000 萬美元的增量關稅成本。我們預計將從今年下半年開始收到補償。我們預計，在採取緩解措施和客戶恢復措施後，2025 年全年淨影響將達到約 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元。在了解了這些背景知識後，讓我們來談談幻燈片 5 上的指導。

Our outlook has been adjusted from the previous targets, which were provided on May 2. Our updated targets are as follows: for sales, our new range is $5.75 billion to $5.95 billion versus $5.65 billion to $5.95 billion previously. This sales target is based on a North American production range of 14.6 million to 15.1 million units and certain assumptions for our key programs. We continue to anticipate GM's full-size pickup and SUV production in the range of 1.3 million to 1.4 million units.

我們對 5 月 2 日提出的預期進行了調整。我們更新後的目標如下：就銷售額而言，我們的新範圍是 57.5 億美元至 59.5 億美元，而先前的範圍是 56.5 億美元至 59.5 億美元。該銷售目標是基於北美 1,460 萬至 1,510 萬輛的產量範圍以及我們關鍵項目的某些假設。我們繼續預計通用汽車全尺寸皮卡和 SUV 的產量將在 130 萬至 140 萬輛之間。

From an EBITDA perspective, the range is now $695 million to $745 million versus $665 million to $745 million previously. We now anticipate adjusted free cash flow in the range of $175 million to $215 million. Our CapEx assumption is unchanged at approximately 5% of sales as we ready the organization for important upcoming launches especially for one of our major truck programs.

從 EBITDA 角度來看，目前的範圍為 6.95 億美元至 7.45 億美元，而先前的範圍為 6.65 億美元至 7.45 億美元。我們現在預計調整後的自由現金流將在 1.75 億美元至 2.15 億美元之間。我們的資本支出假設保持不變，仍為銷售額的約 5%，因為我們正在為即將推出的重要產品做好準備，特別是我們的一個主要卡車項目。

In addition, while not included in our adjusted free cash flow figures, we estimate our restructuring-related cash payments for AAM as a standalone entity to continue to be in the range of $20 million to $30 million for 2025, as we look to further optimize our business and further reduce fixed costs. We underscore that the guidance figures we are providing today are on an AAM stand-alone pre-combination basis and excludes any costs or expenses related to our announced Dowlais transaction.

此外，雖然未包含在我們調整後的自由現金流數據中，但我們估計，到 2025 年，我們對 AAM 作為獨立實體的重組相關現金支付將繼續保持在 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元之間，因為我們希望進一步優化我們的業務並進一步降低固定成本。我們強調，我們今天提供的指導數據是基於 AAM 獨立的合併前數據，不包括與我們宣布的 Dowlais 交易相關的任何成本或費用。

AAM delivered good first-half results. And while the second half includes some extended customer downtime, particularly in the third quarter and a slight uptick in the second half launch costs in preparation for upcoming programs, we are excited about our fundamental underlying performance improvements carrying into 2026. Simply, we expect continued improvement in both of our business units, further fixed cost reductions to align capacity, and tightly controlled spending. In some, these factors should benefit future periods.

AAM 上半年業績表現良好。儘管下半年客戶停機時間有所延長，尤其是在第三季度，為了準備即將到來的項目，下半年的發射成本略有上升，但我們對我們基本性能的改進將延續到 2026 年感到興奮。簡單來說，我們預期兩個業務部門都會繼續改善，進一步降低固定成本以調整產能，並嚴格控制支出。在某些情況下，這些因素應該會對未來時期有利。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start the Q&A. David?

感謝您今天抽空參加電話會議。我要在這裡停下來並將電話轉回給大衛，以便我們開始問答。戴維？

Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

謝謝你，克里斯和大衛。我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。我請求您限制您的問題不超過兩個。因此，此時，如果您有任何問題，請隨時提出。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Spak, UBS.

（操作員指示）Joe Spak，瑞銀。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Chris, maybe if we could sort of get -- I know you should provide some of the overarching points for your guidance. Maybe just some thoughts on T1 production levels for the year, maybe even cadence in the back half, given we've seen some of the downtime announcements at Silao. But then if you look at S&P also, it looks like some pretty low levels in the fourth quarter, which maybe there's some upside to that. So just wondering how you're thinking about that for the back half of the year.

謝謝。大家早安。克里斯，也許我們可以得到——我知道你應該提供一些總體觀點以供指導。鑑於我們已經看到了 Silao 的一些停機公告，也許只是今年 T1 生產水平的一些想法，甚至可能是下半年的節奏。但如果你再看看標準普爾指數，你會發現第四季的水平相當低，這也許有一些好處。所以我只是想了解一下您對今年下半年有何看法。

Yes. No, great question, Joe. Obviously, that's a key platform for our business. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, a range that we assumed for the year is 1.3 million to 1.4 million units you will face in terms of just cadence through the year. Obviously, the first half of the year was pretty strong. Almost about half of that was built at the high end, meaning closer to $700,000 in the first half of the year. The second half, obviously, would fall normal cadences associated with seasonality in production days, Q3 versus Q4.

是的。不，喬，這個問題問得很好。顯然，這是我們業務的關鍵平台。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們假設今年的銷量範圍是 130 萬到 140 萬台，就全年的節奏而言，您將面臨這樣的銷量。顯然，今年上半年的表現相當強勁。其中幾乎一半都是高端建築，這意味著上半年的投資金額接近 70 萬美元。顯然，下半年的生產天數將遵循與季節性相關的正常節奏，即第三季與第四季。

And then lastly, as you mentioned -- or maybe second to last, we did experience a little bit of some extra downtime, pretty much already almost behind us here in the third quarter related to Silao. But that said, we are, as a franchise, quite bullish on that platform. If you think about the range we provided in the context of that, the HD platform continues to run very strong. The SUV platform continues to run very strong. You even see the light-duty truck inventories only in the 60-day range at this point in time.

最後，正如您所提到的 - 或者可能是倒數第二個，我們確實經歷了一些額外的停機時間，與 Silao 相關的停機時間在第三季度幾乎已經過去了。但話雖如此，作為特許經營者，我們對該平台非常看好。如果您考慮我們在此背景下提供的範圍，那麼高清平台將繼續保持強勁運行。SUV平台持續保持強勁運作。目前，您甚至可以看到輕型卡車庫存僅處於 60 天範圍內。

So we continue to be bullish on that, but the cadence would follow probably more of a seasonality in terms of the second half. You can pick your macro number that you want to use that in a little bit of downtime related as well in the third quarter. Hopefully, it helps and provides some context for it.

因此，我們繼續對此持樂觀態度，但就下半年而言，節奏可能更遵循季節性。您可以選擇您想要使用的巨集數字，也可以在第三季的一點停機時間內使用該數字。希望它能有所幫助並提供一些背景資訊。

Yes, thanks for that. And then I guess a second question, just sticking on GM, but want to time some other elements here with the longer tail for ICE and sort of their announcement to onshore some, especially T1 capacity to the US, how you're thinking about that for Axle. It seems like the incremental SUV production is almost unabashedly a positive, but wanted to get your our point of view on that and whether even there's -- once the Dowlais deal closed, whether there's even an opportunity for some additional content from that onshoring.

是的，謝謝。然後我想問第二個問題，只是堅持通用汽車，但想在這裡將一些其他元素與 ICE 的長尾聯繫起來，以及他們對一些在岸項目的公告，特別是對美國的 T1 容量，您如何看待 Axle 的這些內容。看起來 SUV 產量的增加幾乎毫無疑問是件好事，但我想聽聽您對此的看法，以及一旦 Dowlais 交易完成，是否有機會從國內生產中獲得一些額外的內容。

Yes, John, this is David. Obviously, Chris -- and you just talked about the T1XX volumes. GM's announced product plans to shift some of their production around to the US operations. Clearly, we've got the flexibility and the capacity to be able to support that. We'll have to make some adjustments to our global operations to do that. But we're working with general owners with respect to what needs to be done in that area there. So we're encouraged and pleased with that.

是的，約翰，這是大衛。顯然，克里斯——你剛才談到了 T1XX 卷。通用汽車宣布了將部分生產轉移到美國工廠的產品計劃。顯然，我們有足夠的靈活性和能力來支持這一點。為了實現這一目標，我們必須對全球營運做出一些調整。但我們正在與一般業主合作，討論該地區需要採取的措施。因此我們對此感到鼓舞和高興。

I mean, obviously, our policy is to buy and build local. And our parts tend to be a little bit larger; so therefore, we need to be closer in proximity to the assembly plants. And if GM is shifting that production, which they are, then we need to make the necessary adjustments in concert with them. And we'll do that.

我的意思是，顯然我們的政策是購買和建造本地產品。而且我們的零件往往更大一些；因此，我們需要更靠近組裝廠。如果通用汽車正在轉移生產，那麼我們需要與他們一起做出必要的調整。我們會這麼做的。

With respect to Dowlais, assuming that everything closes in the fourth quarter, which is on track to do, it's just going to give us even more flexibility in the US or even globally to support all customers, not just GM, but all customers. And we do expect that there'll be some content gains for us on the T1XX based on Dowlais's position on those programs.

對於 Dowlais，假設一切都在第四季度完成（這是按計劃進行的），這將為我們在美國甚至全球提供更大的靈活性，以支持所有客戶，不僅僅是通用汽車，而是所有客戶。我們確實希望，根據 Dowlais 對這些項目的立場，T1XX 會為我們帶來一些內容上的利益。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Tom Narayan, RBC.

湯姆·納拉揚，RBC。

Hey, thanks for taking my questions. I remember you guys mentioning that there was some extra plant due diligence at Dowlais that you still had yet to do, and that potentially could create some upside to the synergy total that you have. Just curious -- I know you guys got the deal approval from the Dowlais side. Congrats on that. Just curious if -- where we were on that extra plant due diligence? And then I have a follow up. Thanks.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。我記得你們提到過，Dowlais 還有一些額外的工廠盡職調查尚未完成，這可能會為你們的協同效應總量帶來一些好處。只是好奇——我知道你們已經獲得了 Dowlais 方面的交易批准。恭喜你。只是好奇──我們對額外工廠的盡職調查進行到了哪一步？然後我有一個後續行動。謝謝。

Yes, Tom, this is David. Good question. Now that we've got the shareholder approval from both sides, we're now able to spend more time with Dowlais, get more information that we need in order to do the proper assessment on the manufacturing force of the synergy side. We are also starting to get into more of their plants, which will give us an opportunity to have a better assessment of what that true opportunity is.

是的，湯姆，這是大衛。好問題。現在我們已經獲得了雙方股東的批准，我們現在可以花更多的時間與 Dowlais 合作，獲取更多我們需要的信息，以便對協同方面的製造力量進行適當的評估。我們也開始進入他們的更多工廠，這將使我們有機會更好地評估真正的機會是什麼。

We still feel that there's some upside potential there. We can't quantify that at this point in time. At the same time, on the purchasing side of things, clearly, we're dealing with a challenge in an uncertain market with the tariffs and the policy changes. So we'll continue to manage that appropriately. We still feel confident about what we can do in the synergy area there based on what we've communicated already. But still ongoing, I guess, is the best way to answer it. But we're hopeful that there will be incremental upside still on the operations side.

我們仍然認為那裡存在一些上行潛力。目前我們還無法量化這一點。同時，在採購方面，我們顯然面臨關稅和政策變化等不確定市場帶來的挑戰。因此我們將繼續妥善管理。根據我們已經傳達的訊息，我們仍然對我們在那裡的協同領域所能做的事情充滿信心。但我想，仍在進行中是回答這個問題的最佳方式。但我們希望營運方面仍能有逐步的上升空間。

Great. And my follow up on the tariff side, just a quick housekeeping. The $10 million in Q2 and then the total is $10 million to $15 million for the full year after mitigation recoveries, just curious where that is coming from specifically. Is that Rest of the World piece? And then on tariffs in general, are you hearing -- it may be too early. But reshoring, potentially now we have the EU, Korea, Japan deal is done. Have those OEMs talked at all about that with you guys? Yes, thanks.

偉大的。我對關稅方面的後續狀況只是簡單的整理一下。第二季的 1,000 萬美元，緩解恢復後全年總額將達到 1,000 萬至 1,500 萬美元，只是好奇這些資金具體來自哪裡。這是《世界其他地方》嗎？那麼關於關稅的整體情況，您是否聽說—現在可能還為時過早。但現在，歐盟、韓國和日本可能已經達成協議，可以推動製造業回流。這些 OEM 廠商是否與你們討論過這個問題？是的，謝謝。

Yes, Tom, this is Chris. I'll take the first part of your question as it relates to the $10 million. It comes from -- the majority of that is through Rest of World scenarios in terms of how they find their way into our US operations. That would be correct. It's not -- obviously, we are primarily USMCA compliant for our Mexico and Canadian imports, so it's primarily Rest of the World.

是的，湯姆，這是克里斯。我將回答您問題的第一部分，因為它與 1000 萬美元有關。它來自於——其中大部分是透過世界其他地區的情景來了解它們如何進入我們的美國業務。那是正確的。顯然，我們的墨西哥和加拿大進口主要符合 USMCA 的規定，因此主要針對世界其他地區。

And then Tom, this is David. In regards to the second part of your question, we are receiving several inquiries from many of the global OEMs that are looking to localize production capability or component capability to the US to address the tariff issues that are out there. That's positive for us in regard, especially for our Metal Forming business unit. But we're seeing it from the Europeans and all the Asians as well with respect to those inquiries. So it's still early, but we're working in that process right now. And hopefully, we can conquest new business going forward.

然後是湯姆，這是大衛。關於您問題的第二部分，我們收到了許多全球原始設備製造商的詢問，他們希望將生產能力或零件能力本地化到美國，以解決現有的關稅問題。這對我們來說是積極的，特別是對我們的金屬成型業務部門。但我們也看到歐洲人和亞洲人也提出了同樣的詢問。所以現在還為時過早，但我們現在正在進行這一進程。希望我們能夠在未來開拓新的業務。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Itay Michaeli, TD Cowen.

Itay Michaeli，TD Cowen。

Great, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Just a bigger-picture question. I'm curious what you think some of the changes in emissions regulations at the federal level and at other levels could mean for American Axle over the next couple of years, both in terms of mix and just key program volume. I'm curious if you've had discussions yet on that with some of your customers.

太好了，謝謝。大家早安。這只是一個更宏觀的問題。我很好奇，您認為聯邦和其他層級的排放法規的一些變化對美國車橋未來幾年意味著什麼，無論是在組合方面還是在關鍵項目數量方面。我很好奇您是否已經與一些客戶討論過這個問題。

So Itay, this is David. Obviously, as I said in my prepared remarks, first of all, the consumer is showing what their preference is for ICE and ICE hybrid-type vehicles. But there's still a need for electrification. It's just that electrification demand is slowing down than what the prognosticators were seeing. There's still significant progress being made on ICE vehicles and ICE and hybrid as it relates to fuel economy performance.

所以 Itay，這是 David。顯然，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，首先，消費者正在展示他們對 ICE 和 ICE 混合動力車的偏好。但仍然需要電氣化。只是電氣化需求的成長速度比預測者所看到的要慢。在燃油經濟性方面，內燃機汽車以及內燃機和混合動力汽車仍在取得重大進展。

As you all know, there was a significant bill associated with trying to convert things to electrification. So it's going to benefit not only the OEMs as far as less capital investment but will also benefit the supply base, including American Axle, in regards to using our installed fixed capacity and leverage of our core components and our products that we have today.

眾所周知，嘗試將事物轉換為電氣化需要花費巨額費用。因此，這不僅會使原始設備製造商受益，減少資本投資，而且還會使包括 American Axle 在內的供應基地受益，利用我們現有的固定產能和核心零件及產品的槓桿作用。

I still believe in electrification. I've always said that I think it's going to be adopted or accepted in the US market slower than it is in China or globally around the world. And that's really starting to play out and pan out the way we thought and the way we've planned our business. But at the same time, we have to be agnostic to the market from a propulsion standpoint, and that's what we're doing is preparing ourselves where we have an extensive portfolio of ICE, hybrid, and electrification. And the Dowlais acquisition will just complement that and give us a more comprehensive portfolio there.

我仍然相信電氣化。我一直說，我認為它在美國市場的採用或接受速度將比在中國或全球範圍內慢。而這一切確實開始按照我們的想法和我們規劃的業務方式實現。但同時，從推進的角度來看，我們必須對市場保持不可知論的態度，這就是我們正在做的，我們準備在內燃機、混合動力和電氣化領域擁有廣泛的產品組合。而對 Dowlais 的收購將對此進行補充，並為我們帶來更全面的產品組合。

But customer wise, I mean, they're evaluating everything as far as continuing to push ICE, looking at hybrid because there is an increased demand for hybrids, and electrification. There's still a desire for electrification. Obviously, we wouldn't have gone after Scout if we didn't think that there was a true market for that. But we're very encouraged with where we're seeing balance now in regards to the approach towards multiple propulsion systems.

但從客戶角度來看，他們正在評估一切，以繼續推動 ICE，並考慮混合動力，因為對混合動力和電氣化的需求不斷增加。人們仍然渴望電氣化。顯然，如果我們不認為 Scout 有真正的市場，我們就不會去追逐它。但我們非常高興地看到，在多種推進系統方法方面，我們已經取得了平衡。

That's very helpful. Thank you, David. And as a quick follow up, I think, Chris, you mentioned some launch costs second half of the year to support programs in 2026. Any way you can roughly quantify what those launch costs, how we should think about them?

這非常有幫助。謝謝你，大衛。作為一個快速的跟進，克里斯，我想你提到了今年下半年的一些發射成本，以支持 2026 年的計劃。您能否粗略地量化這些發射成本，我們應該如何考慮它們？

Yes. I would think bottom around $5 million to $10 million in the back half of the year versus -- let's say, versus what we experienced in the first half. And it aligns with sort of our capital timing that we've been talking about as well.

是的。我認為，與上半年相比，下半年的最低值在 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元左右。這與我們一直在談論的資本時機一致。

Perfect. That's very helpful. Thank you.

完美的。這非常有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

James Picariello, BNP.

英國國家黨的詹姆斯·皮卡里耶洛。

Hey, guys. This is Jake on for James. So I just wanted to spend a second talking about the steel and aluminum tariffs. Could you discuss, just first, if there's any direct impact on your business? And then can you remind us what portion of your steel exposure is covered by contractual recoveries?

嘿，大家好。這是傑克代替詹姆斯上場。所以我只想花一點時間談鋼鐵和鋁關稅。首先，您能否討論一下這是否會對您的業務產生直接影響？然後您能否提醒我們，您的鋼鐵風險中有多少部分是透過合約追償來涵蓋的？

Yes, James, this is Chris. In terms of steel and aluminum, primarily all of our steel and aluminum that we procure or consume inside of the United States were procured from US sources. So we are largely exempt from any tariff exposures associated with that. There are some small tool steel-type elements but very minor that we would incur from that perspective. So I think we're in a really good spot as it relates to our primary production and consumption of steel and aluminum. And the second part of your question was what?

是的，詹姆斯，這是克里斯。就鋼鐵和鋁而言，我們在美國境內採購或消費的鋼鐵和鋁基本上都是從美國採購的。因此，我們基本上可以免受與此相關的任何關稅風險。從這個角度來看，我們會產生一些小型工具鋼類型的元素，但這些元素非常小。因此，我認為，就鋼鐵和鋁的主要生產和消費而言，我們處於非常有利的地位。你的問題的第二部分是什麼？

Just about recovery.

只是關於恢復。

Recovery. So the primary element of recovery is all the commodity pass-throughs in terms of the input costs to our steel is passed along to our customers by contract either every 30 days or 90 days, depending on the customer. So we're primarily covered, call it, 80% to 90% in terms of those cost increases or decreases we would pass through as well. And those markets surprisingly have been relatively stable in the last quarter or so.

恢復。因此，復甦的主要要素是，所有商品的轉嫁，就我們鋼鐵的投入成本而言，都是根據合約每 30 天或 90 天轉嫁給我們的客戶，具體取決於客戶。因此，就我們所承受的成本增加或減少而言，我們基本上可以承擔 80% 到 90% 的費用。令人驚訝的是，這些市場在過去一個季度左右相對穩定。

Got it. Thank you. And then obviously, the Scout award is a pretty significant validation of your e-Beam capability. Are you able to share whether you guys are also able to leverage your proprietary e-Drive in the program or whether it's leveraging more off-the-shelf parts?

知道了。謝謝。顯然，Scout 獎是對您的電子束能力的一個相當重要的證明。您能否分享一下，您是否也能夠在該計劃中利用專有的 e-Drive，或者是否利用更多現成的部件？

No. We clearly leveraged our IP and our own capability. At the same time, we work closely with the Scout team and the VW Group in regards to what they were looking for, for the specific vehicles that we are developing products for. But this is a testament to the comprehensive portfolio that we have. We've been positioned for electrification for quite some time. At the same time, we're going to continue to make investments in electrification, but on a balanced basis.

不。我們顯然利用了我們的知識產權和我們自己的能力。同時，我們與 Scout 團隊和大眾集團密切合作，了解他們對我們正在開發產品的特定車輛的需求。但這證明了我們擁有全面的產品組合。我們為電氣化做好準備已經有一段時間了。同時，我們將繼續在電氣化方面進行投資，但要保持平衡。

We just want to make sure we have a comprehensive proposal that gives us the vertical integration capability that can satisfy customer needs, whether it's components, subassembly, or the full complete systems. And in this case, we're winning complete systems with respect to both e-Beam and EDUs. So a very big win for us, validation of our technology and capability, at the same time sends the message to the marketplace that we do have the ability to satisfy ICE, hybrid, and electrification.

我們只是想確保我們有一個全面的提案，使我們具備垂直整合能力，能夠滿足客戶的需求，無論是組件、子組件還是完整的系統。在這種情況下，我們贏得了與電子束和 EDU 相關的完整的系統。因此，這對我們來說是一個巨大的勝利，驗證了我們的技術和能力，同時向市場傳遞了這樣的訊息：我們確實有能力滿足 ICE、混合動力和電氣化的需求。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking our questions. I wanted to ask about Europe. Obviously, with the acquisition, you're going to be much more deeper and have much higher -- much more business there. What's the latest thinking, I guess, on just the market getting more -- getting more into that market and also kind of the regulatory backdrop of that?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。我想問一下有關歐洲的問題。顯然，透過此次收購，您將在那裡擁有更深入、更高水平、更多的業務。我想，關於市場如何獲得更多——如何進入該市場以及相關監管背景的最新想法是什麼？

Yes, this is David. Listen, we're very excited about the acquisition of Dowlais. The strategic combination is very powerful. As we indicated, it's going to give us more balance from a customer diversification and geographic diversification. We're heavily concentrated in North America as a standalone, meaning AAM. We'll get more balance with the Dowlais combination. But Europe becomes approximately 30-plus percent of our overall business.

是的，這是大衛。聽著，我們對收購 Dowlais 感到非常興奮。策略組合非常強大。正如我們所指出的，它將使我們在客戶多樣化和地域多樣化方面實現更多的平衡。我們主要集中在北美，即 AAM。透過 Dowlais 組合，我們將獲得更好的平衡。但歐洲業務約占我們整體業務的30%以上。

We recognize that market is challenged right now. It's down from where it typically runs in the 20 million, 22 million units. It's down running 17 million, 18 million units. We recognize some of the restructuring going on there. But Dowlais is very well positioned with their customers there from a product standpoint. At the same time, as you're aware, Dowlais has been going through some of their own restructuring efforts on the automotive side of their business, both in North America as well as in Europe.

我們認識到市場目前面臨挑戰。它比通常的 2000 萬到 2200 萬台的銷量有所下降。銷量已降至 1700 萬至 1800 萬台。我們認識到那裡正在進行一些重組。但從產品角度來看，Dowlais 在客戶中佔據著非常有利的地位。同時，如您所知，Dowlais 一直在北美和歐洲的汽車業務方面進行一些重組。

And they are close to completing that, so we're actually getting a hold of this business at the appropriate time. And what we're going to be able to do is bring a more comprehensive and expansive portfolio to those markets, which will allow us to hopefully cross-sell capabilities with customers there. At the same time, we'll continue to look at our portfolio and our manufacturing locations as well as theirs.

他們已經接近完成這一目標，因此我們實際上是在適當的時候掌握了這項業務。我們能夠做的是為這些市場帶來更全面、更廣泛的產品組合，這將使我們能夠向那裡的客戶進行交叉銷售。同時，我們將繼續關注我們的產品組合和製造地點以及他們的產品組合和製造地點。

And if there's further optimization that we can do to get better utilization of the factories and drive more synergies, then we'll pursue that as well. But we're very excited about how they're positioned themselves in Europe and how we're positioned in Europe, knowing that we're still doing some restructuring ourselves there based on the Tekfor acquisition. But overall, I think we'll be very well positioned to satisfy the European market on a go-forward basis.

如果我們可以進一步優化，以更好地利用工廠並產生更多的協同效應，那麼我們也會這樣做。但我們對他們在歐洲的定位以及我們在歐洲的定位感到非常興奮，因為我們知道我們仍在根據 Tekfor 收購進行一些重組。但總體而言，我認為我們將能夠很好地滿足歐洲市場的需求。

Understood, understood. And then just, I guess, a logistical housekeeping question on the deal. I think the shareholder vote happened a bit sooner, maybe a couple of months sooner than you may have thought. Is that fair or was the timing actually on track, the shareholder votes?

明白了，明白了。然後，我想，這只是關於這筆交易的後勤問題。我認為股東投票會進行得更早一些，可能比你想像的早幾個月。這樣公平嗎？或者說時機確實正確，股東投票？

No, the timing was on track. So we had our shareholder approval on July 15. They had theirs on July 22. We were able to do a number of shareholder meetings, both in the US as well as in Europe, to support those votes. And obviously, they came back unanimously in favor of the deal, both shareholders, which was strong message in itself.

不，時間安排得很準確。因此，我們在 7 月 15 日獲得了股東批准。他們於 7 月 22 日舉行了婚禮。我們能夠在美國和歐洲召開多次股東大會來支持這些投票。顯然，雙方股東一致支持該交易，這本身就是一個強烈的訊息。

So it supports our thesis of strategically bringing these businesses together to deal with uncertainty in the marketplace, which only continues to become larger -- a larger issue. And I think we'll be stronger when it's all said and done when we come together. So very excited about the combination. But everything was on track.

因此，它支持了我們的論點，即從策略上將這些企業聯合起來，以應對市場中的不確定性，而這種不確定性只會變得越來越大——一個更大的問題。我認為，當我們團結起來時，我們會變得更強大。我對這個組合感到非常興奮。但一切都在正常軌道上。

Okay, great. Thank you.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Federico Merendi, Bank of America.

費德里科·梅倫迪，美國銀行。

Hi. Good morning, guys.

你好。大家早安。

Good morning.

早安.

I have a question on the free cash flow generation in the second half of the year. So if I look at the EBITDA, it's largely flat, first half versus second half. But there is a meaningful step up in free cash flow. What is driving that?

我對下半年的自由現金流產生有一個疑問。因此，如果我看一下 EBITDA，就會發現上半年與下半年相比基本上持平。但自由現金流有了顯著的成長。是什麼原因導致的呢？

Yes, Federico, this is Chris. Good morning. Yes, in terms of our free cash flow profile, very customary for us through the course of our four quarters each year, we would have -- it's primarily focused on the working capital element of our business. Generally speaking, we have a large outflow in the first quarter. We have a large inflow in the fourth quarter.

是的，費德里科，這是克里斯。早安.是的，就我們的自由現金流狀況而言，在我們每年四個季度的過程中，我們通常會主要關注我們業務的營運資本要素。整體來說，我們第一季的資金流出比較大。我們在第四季有大量的資金流入。

And that principally relates to the timing of our sales, how you're ramping down sales through the fourth quarter into the Christmas holidays. The opposite is happening in the first quarter where you're ramping up on those two generally what's typically a stronger margin. So you would have a stronger fourth quarter working capital element, think of receivables primarily.

這主要與我們的銷售時間有關，即如何在第四季度到聖誕節假期期間減少銷售量。第一季的情況正好相反，這兩個方面的業務都在增加，通常利潤率會更高。因此，您將擁有更強大的第四季營運資金要素，主要考慮應收帳款。

The other element inside of that is we continue to anticipate some strength in our working capital cash conversion as it relates to inventory in the back half versus the first half. So that will also drive some cash flow for us. The rest of the elements, CapEx, a little bit heavier weighted in the second half. Obviously, your profitability flow-through as well will be very similar in each of these periods. But it's principally that working capital piece that I mentioned.

其中的另一個因素是，我們繼續預期下半年與上半年相比，我們的營運資本現金轉換將會增強，因為它與庫存有關。這也會為我們帶來一些現金流。其餘要素，資本支出，在下半年的權重稍大。顯然，您的獲利流在每個時期也會非常相似。但這主要是我提到的營運資金部分。

Got it. Thank you. And on a more long-term perspective on free cash flow, I mean, it's all positive that you're getting quotes from customers around the world that they may relocate to the US, and GM is potentially moving some production into the US. But I would assume that we'd have put more capital in the business. And I was wondering, how should we think about cash flow generation in the future post-deal closure and the deleveraging portion of the story?

知道了。謝謝。從自由現金流的更長遠角度來看，我的意思是，從世界各地的客戶那裡得到的報價都是積極的，他們可能會遷往美國，而通用汽車也有可能將部分生產轉移到美國。但我認為我們會在該業務上投入更多資金。我想知道，我們應該如何看待未來交易完成後的現金流產生以及故事的去槓桿部分？

Yes. I'll take the capital piece of this, Federico. If you think about it -- if you look at some of our recent materials that we have published, especially in relation to our combination with Dowlais and the cash-flow-generation potential of the company, it's significant. But it also brings us greater capacity and scale that allows us to pivot with some of our customers' moves inside of whatever they decide to put their production, whether it's in Europe or in US.

是的。我要承擔這筆大筆費用，費德里科。如果你仔細想想——如果你看一下我們最近發布的一些材料，特別是有關我們與 Dowlais 的合併以及公司的現金流產生潛力的材料，你會發現它意義重大。但它也為我們帶來了更大的產能和規模，使我們能夠根據客戶的決定調整生產地點，無論是在歐洲還是在美國。

We'll have a greater footprint to leverage, which would require then less capital intensity for some of those changes as well. But we still continue to see a very strong free cash-flow-generating capability of a standalone American Axle, and we would expect to have that in even greater scale when we combine with Dowlais, even accommodating some of the elements that you just described.

我們將擁有更大的影響力，進而降低某些變革所需的資本強度。但我們仍然看到獨立的 American Axle 擁有非常強大的自由現金流生成能力，而且我們預計，當我們與 Dowlais 合併時，其規模會更大，甚至可以容納您剛才描述的一些元素。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Doug Karson, Bank of America.

美國銀行的道格‧卡森 (Doug Karson)。

Hi, guys. Thanks for sneaking me in here. Nice work this quarter.

嗨，大家好。謝謝你讓我偷偷來到這裡。本季做得很好。

Thanks, Doug.

謝謝，道格。

I don't want to get ahead of myself, but we definitely have bondholders on the call here. And maybe just help refresh us how you envision the balance sheet this acquisition, obviously, close to double the size of the company, which is a positive typically for credit investors. But maybe just kind of touch again on the balance sheet, and maybe perhaps what type of capital investment you may need and how it would affect your cash flow to kind of get this business where you want it in the next few years.

我不想說得太過分，但我們肯定有債券持有人參加會議。也許只是幫助我們回顧一下您對此次收購的資產負債表的設想，顯然，此次收購將使公司規模擴大近一倍，這對信貸投資者來說通常是一件好事。但也許只是再次觸及資產負債表，也許您可能需要什麼類型的資本投資，以及它將如何影響您的現金流，以便在未來幾年內使這項業務達到您想要的目標。

Yes. I guess we'll start in reverse. In terms of the cash flow, I guess I would tie in a little bit to the commentary of the previous question. We would expect to continue to have very strong cash flow as it relates for the combined entity. And if you look at some of our materials on a pro forma basis, based on our '23 and '24 historical performance, we're running near approximately 5% of revenue. So put the synergies involved in that number as well, and it's a pretty powerful combined group generate from a cash flow perspective.

是的。我想我們會反過來開始。就現金流而言，我想我會與上一個問題的評論稍微聯繫起來。我們預計合併後的實體將繼續擁有非常強勁的現金流。如果您以準備考試的方式查看我們的一些資料，根據我們 23 年和 24 年的歷史表現，我們的收入約為 5%。因此，將協同效應也納入該數字中，從現金流的角度來看，這是一個非常強大的聯合集團。

Look, we'll go to Mark here to take out our final financing leg here to continue to strengthen our balance sheet and finance the transaction. I think we will bring on some additional debt to do so. But our goal is to deleverage quickly, especially in terms of the first couple of steps. Our primary goal will be to strengthen the balance sheet as we come out of the combined combination using that cash flow.

瞧，我們會去找馬克來這裡進行我們最後的融資，以繼續加強我們的資產負債表並為交易提供資金。我認為我們這樣做會產生一些額外的債務。但我們的目標是快速去槓桿，特別是前幾個步驟。我們的主要目標是利用現金流量在合併後加強資產負債表。

And then after we get towards our target of 2.5 times of our -- an immediate step, we'll then expand our capital allocation a little bit broader. But our focus will continue to be to strengthen that balance sheet and continue to grind down that leverage ratio back on the back of our strong EBITDA performance and our cash flow generation.

然後，當我們達到 2.5 倍的目標後——立即採取行動，我們將稍微擴大我們的資本配置。但我們的重點仍將是加強資產負債表，並在強勁的 EBITDA 業績和現金流產生的基礎上繼續降低槓桿率。

That's helpful. And have you guys come out with a range of where leverage would go kind of post closure? I think your leverage has been coming down over the last few years following the story. And I guess, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing where leverage is expected to be after the close. I think your net debt right now is $2 billion and net leverage ratio is 2.8. So just wondering if we have a sense of -- just a rough framework of where it would be post close?

這很有幫助。你們是否已經提出了關閉後槓桿率的範圍？我認為，隨著這個故事的發生，過去幾年你的影響力一直在下降。我想，我只是想確保我沒有錯過收盤後預計的槓桿率。我認為你們目前的淨債務是20億美元，淨槓桿是2.8。所以，我想知道我們能否大致了解一下交易完成後的淨債務水準？

Yes. When we announced the transaction earlier in the year, we were just under 3, sort of at 2.8, 2.9 times, depending on the quarter. And we are driving towards trying to be approximately leverage neutral at close. Obviously, our guidance of both companies has moved around a little bit here this year, but that is still what we're striving for. And that would be at close on an actual basis.

是的。當我們在今年稍早宣布這筆交易時，我們的比率略低於 3，大約是 2.8 倍或 2.9 倍，具體取決於季度。我們正努力嘗試在收盤時實現槓桿率大致中性。顯然，今年我們對這兩家公司的指導都有所調整，但這仍然是我們努力的目標。這將是實際接近的。

Doug, this is David. As a standalone company, we've said that we wanted to try and work our way towards less than 2 times. With Dowlais, we're going to continue to work towards 2 times. But we also said that because we're going to have a larger company, a more robust business model that when we got to that approximately 2.5 times or less that we would essentially reevaluate our capital allocation opportunities, including shareholder-friendly activities.

道格，這是大衛。作為一家獨立公司，我們曾表示，我們希望努力將這一數字控制在 2 倍以下。與 Dowlais 一起，我們將繼續努力實現 2 倍的目標。但我們也表示，因為我們將擁有一家更大的公司，一個更強大的商業模式，當我們達到大約 2.5 倍或更少時，我們將從根本上重新評估我們的資本配置機會，包括股東友善活動。

So that would be the only kind of real change to the current strategy that AAM has. But we're going to continue to focus on paying down debt. We're going to generate a lot of cash from the combined business with the synergies, which is going to open up the opportunity for us to have more opportunities on the capital allocation side.

因此，這將是 AAM 當前策略的唯一真正改變。但我們將繼續專注於償還債務。我們將透過合併業務和協同效應產生大量現金，這將為我們在資本配置方面創造更多機會。

All right. This is summing up. I got it straight, and thank you for that. So net leverage coming out of -- closed the transaction about where we are now. And then you're grinding that down as a priority to around 2.5% and then going forward once at 2.5%, given the company will be larger than redeploying capital perhaps elsewhere.

好的。這就是總結。我明白了，謝謝你。因此，淨槓桿率已經出來了——我們已經結束了目前的交易。然後，你優先將其降低到 2.5% 左右，然後考慮到公司規模會更大，再將資本重新部署到其他地方，以 2.5% 的速度繼續提高。

Spot on.

準確。

All right. Thank you, guys. I appreciate it.

好的。謝謝你們。我很感激。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

Thank you, Doug. And that concludes the question-and-answer session of the call. We thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

謝謝你，道格。電話問答環節到此結束。我們感謝所有參加本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的關注。我們當然期待將來與您交談。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。