艾芙隆海灣社區公司 (AVB) 2013 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the AvalonBay Communities fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode.

(Operator Instructions)

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Mr. Jason Reilly, Director of Investor Relations. Mr. Reilly, you may begin your conference.

Thank you, Lauren, and welcome to AvalonBay Communities fourth quarter 2013 earnings conference call. Before we begin please note that forward-looking statements may be made during this discussion. There are a variety of risk and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements and actual results may differ materially. There's a discussion of these risk and uncertainties in yesterday afternoon's press release as well as in the Company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the SEC.

As usual this press release does include an attachment with definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures and other terms which may be used in today's discussion. The attachment is also available on our website at www.avalonbay.com/earnings, and we encourage you to refer to this information during the review of operating results and financial performance.

And with that, I will turn the call over to Tim Naughton, Chairman and CEO of AvalonBay Communities for his remarks. Tim?

Thanks, Jason, and welcome to our fourth quarter call. As you all may have surmised, we have a new format for the call this quarter and it's in response in part, or in part it's in response to some feedback that we've received from you as well as an ongoing effort by us to make these calls more helpful for you.

This morning we posted supplemental materials to our release from last night. They included a management letter which outline our thoughts about Q4, 2013 as well as our outlook for 2014 and also a slide deck which we'll use as a basis for our management commentary today. So there won't be any scripts today. Just the slide deck.

In terms of participants, the group here today is a little different than what we've had in the past. I'll be providing the commentary on the slide deck, also joined here by Tom Sargeant, our CFO; Kevin O'Shea the incoming CFO, effective midyear; Sean Breslin, EVP of Investments and Asset Management; and new -- another new participant today, Matt Birenbaum, EVP of Corporate Strategy and Chairman of our Management Investment Committee. My comments will focus largely on the 2014 outlook but I will touch briefly on Q4 and the full year 2013 first, and then afterwards we'll all be available for questions.

So let's get started. I am going to start on slide 4 with a review of the fourth quarter and then 2013. The fourth quarter continued a solid -- continue a solid OFFO growth of over 17% per share. We did see some deceleration in same-store rental revenue, it decelerates around 3.5%, 3.8% on rate.

Average same unit rent change was up about 2.3% in the seasonally slow fourth quarter, which was about 130 basis points lower than what we saw in Q4 of 2012. At the end of the year, gross potential in December of 2013 was about 4% above December of 2012, so we start the year with a gross potential of about 4% above what we did at the beginning of last year.

We do expect to see stabilization in revenue growth in 2014, and we'll discuss this more fully in our outlook remarks. Development yields continue to hold in the mid-7% range as we completed $220 million this past quarter, and the debt and transaction markets remain very liquid to fund the development underway with over $800 million raised in Q4.

For the full year 2013, OFFO growth per share was up by almost 15%, tops in the sector, supported by healthy internal growth with a same-store portfolio as well as external growth consisting of development that was stabilizing as well as -- as well as our investment in Archstone. OFFO per share has now grown by 57% cumulatively over the last three years.

Development starts were up almost 50% over 2012 at about $1.3 billion, and most of it is already capitalized or match funded with attractively priced capital as we raised a significant amount of capital through dispositions at sub 5% cap rates this year and debt at sub 4% on average. And lastly we added over $2 billion of attractive development rights this past year including $700 million from the Archstone transaction which provides future growth opportunity.

Shifting to slide 5, concurrent with this release we did announce a quarterly dividend increase of $0.09 per share or 8.4% for 2014. Our dividend now has grown by over 5% on a compounded basis during our 20-year history as a public company and FFO has grown more in the 6.5% range and closer to 7.5% over the last 10 years. Just given the focus quarter to quarter on earnings and focus on spot NAVs, I think sometimes we lose sight of the companies that are able to consistently grow distributable cash flow and importantly have the strategy, the competitive position, and capabilities to continue to do so in the future.

With that in mind, our 2014 increase reflects our view of 2014 but also beyond. So let's get started and talk about 2014 and I'm shifting to slide 6 now. Overall, we have a favorable view on 2014. We expect the US economy and labor market to get stronger. We expect job, income and household formation growth; combined with strong demographics and underproduction of overall housing, we expect that to offset the impacts from increased, though stabilizing levels of apartment supply.

We are expecting to see solid growth in cash flows with OFFO growth per share up by almost 9%. Again, a function of healthy same-store NOI growth of net to midpoint is 4% and a stabilizing of development communities of over $1 billion in 2014. We have the financial flexibility to continue to fund the business, with plenty of options and we need not rely on equity to fund our ongoing business and yet still preserve strong credit metrics, maintain ample liquidity and have minimal unfunded commitments.

Let's look -- take a closer look at some of the key drivers that form our view, and I'm now turning to slide 7. Starting with the economy, most of the key economic drivers are as good or improving from last year with growing strength as the year progresses. As the economy appears to be moving towards a path of sustainable expansion, all parts of the economy are contributing to potential growth that we expect to be more towards long-term trend in the 3% range. Industries contributing as corporate profits are expected to rise 6%, and we expect companies to continue to or begin to add capacity either through hiring activity or capital investment.

The consumer is much better off as well as our balance sheets are largely restored or -- with less debt, lower debt burdens, and asset gains through the stock and housing markets. Importantly, personal income is projected to be up around 6% nationally in 2014, and we're seeing the credit starting to loosen for the consumer as well.

And then lastly, the government sector is expected to be a net contributor to GDP growth in 2014 as well after having been a drag on growth over the last couple years. The federal government is no longer expected to be a drag after a couple years of stimulus, which were all in and the effects of sequestration now behind us.

State and local governments are much improved and they're now adding to payrolls and rising home values should provide support for tax receipts at the state and local level, and we think this will particularly help many of the suburban markets. And maybe most importantly, we just see policy uncertainty starting to subside, particularly as it relates to monetary policy as the Fed tapering is now underway and better understood by the markets as to what the Fed's intentions are going forward.

Moving to slide 8 and turning to apartment fundamentals in our markets, we expect to see job growth to be up in our markets of about 30 basis points over what we saw in 2013 and over the next couple of years to be on par with that of the US. Turning to slide 9, as I mentioned earlier, we do expect to see personal income growth to rebound in 2014 and our markets be over twice what we saw in 2013 and be broad-based across our regions. The labor market is beginning to tighten and we expect more of the job growth to be in the form of full-time jobs.

Our personal income growth is an important driver, perhaps the most important driver of ultimate renter demand and rental growth, so it's critical that we begin to see improvement here, particularly as we're no longer stealing share from homeownership, excuse me, and we need -- we need income growth from the general population to sustain strong rent growth.

Turning to slide 10, demographics will continue to remain favorable over the next 10 years yet -- and we will start to see strong growth in the 35 to 44 age cohort, which is an important segment for AVB, actually represents over 20% of our customers, but we expect to continue to see our primary segment of the 25 to 34 year olds remain strong in particular over the next two years, expect to see outsized growth in our markets, 375,000 additional folks in that age cohort. This age cohort also provides an important source of pent-up demand as many of you know, many of these folks are still living at home or are doubled up with friends in apartments; and as the economy improves, we expect to see some of that pent-up demand released to the market.

Turning to slide 11, housing affordability is not as pronounced in favor of homeownership as it has been given the recent rise in home prices and interest rates and we're starting to see the gap between rental and for-sale housing costs narrow. I think importantly too, affordability remains much, much lower in our markets than the overall US.

Turning now to supply in slide12, we do expect to see deliveries grow in 2014, but we do expect them to start stabilizing earlier -- early in the year. We'll see more supply in DC and Seattle, which represents about 20% of our same-store portfolio and supply will be increasingly concentrated in urban locations over suburban locations than we've seen in past cycles. It should begin to level-off in early 2014 and taper in late 2015; and despite this increase in supply, we do expect demand should remain strong enough to keep pace with additional supply or in effect demand and supply to be roughly at equilibrium.

Turning to slide 13, our belief in terms of demand supply fundamentals is further enhanced by what we're seeing in the broader housing industry as we think the housing industry will be challenged to ramp up production to meet household growth over the next few years. The country continues to underproduce overall housing since the downturn. We saw less than 2,000 -- less than 1 million in 2013; in our markets, about 130,000 housing starts in 2013.

With much of the excess inventory having been essentially absorbed as that was created in the mid 2000s; in our markets alone we'll need so see a ramp-up of about 75% over the next two years just to keep pace with the rate of household formation. Yet we don't see the capacity having returned to prerecession levels for the housing industry and the lack of investments and entitlement and infrastructure constraints -- we think constrains the industry's ability to respond quickly to higher demand.

So how does this all inform our view of our outlook for the Company? Turning to slide 14 now and starting with property operations, we do expect solid demand supply fundamentals to support healthy growth across all our regions except the Mid-Atlantic. Overall we are expecting same-store revenue in the 3% to 4.25% range with all regions being above trend except DC which represents about 15% of our same portfolio; and Northern California, Seattle continuing to lead the way, but with Southern California and Boston expected to actually improve over 2013 performance.

Turning to slide 15, we do expect same-store revenue to stabilize in 2014 with stronger demand matching the increased level of supply, particularly as the economy builds momentum throughout the course of the year. We expect the economic expansion and apartment cycle to be more like the 1990s, which lasted eight years -- eight plus years and was driven by sustained productivity growth and stable monetary and fiscal policy versus the 2000s expansion if you think about it was driven more by excessive monetary expansion, loose credit and speculative investment behavior. So in effect we expect the right side of this graph as you start to look out over the next couple years to look more like the left side of this graph rather than the middle of the graph.

Turning to development and slide 16, development is expected to peak by mid-2014 for AVB. We expect to start $1.4 billion after having started $1.3 billion in 2013; and total development underway to peak roughly at about $3.5 billion by midyear with some of our larger starts front loaded in 2014. Development underway should approach around 15% of enterprise value.

The economics of the development portfolio remain compelling with recent developments stabilizing in the range of 250 basis points plus the prevailing cap rates and we'll continue to benefit from attractive land positions and the construction starts that occurred early in the cycle. Margins on future development may compress a bit with rising construction costs and cap rates perhaps, but we feel that we have pretty good sized cushion here to buffer the impact from these risks.

Turning to slide 17, we feel really good about the development underway in that it's well diversified across regions, submarkets, and product type; and also feel good about our shadow pipeline. Currently almost 40% of that development underway is actually on the West Coast, which is experiencing better growth and fundamentals and it's as large as it's ever been for us.

And about half the construction starts in 2014 are expected to be in Southern California and Boston, which are the regions where we expect to see improvement. And while about half of the current construction activity is in urban submarkets today, it represents less than one-third in our shadow pipeline and moreover in our shadow pipeline about 85% of all construction is wood frame that generally has shorter production cycles which reduces exposure to market risk later in the expansion.

So now let's look at how we might fund this activity and I'm turning to slide 18 at this point. We have as I mentioned earlier plenty of financial flexibility to continue to fund the business through the most attractive capital options, which currently favor unsecured debt and asset sales. We could issue 10-year unsecured debt roughly in the 4.1% range today, which has been only cheaper 10% of the time since 2001.

Dispositions are trading, our asset sales are trading in the 4.5% to 5.5% cap rate range, which by the way that's around what it's averaged for the last 10 years. For AvalonBay, we've sold over $3.5 billion of assets at and average cap rate of 4.9%, and we think that equates into four unleveraged IRRs ranging in the 6% to 7.5% range. Certainly our dispos will focus on assets that we believe to be towards the lower end of this range where either we believe the asset may have a less attractive growth profile than the market believes or where we may be able to get auction-type pricing for attractive core assets. We can continue to fund developments through a combination of debt and asset sales and cash flow without really increasing leverage or impacting credit metrics.

Turning to slide 19, we do intend to continue to match fund development. In fact, most of the $2.8 billion that's currently under construction is already funded with plenty of additional liquidity in the form of cash on hand and untapped -- an untapped line of credit of $1.3 billion.

So bringing it all together I'm now on slide 20, we expect in terms of our financial outlook, we expect FFO per share to be $6.60 to $6.90. Adjusted for nonroutine items in 2013 and 2014, we expect that to equate into about 8.7% growth on a year-over-year basis. This growth being driven by a combination of same-store NOI growth in the 3% to 5% range and over $1 billion of stabilizing new development.

So in summary, 2013 was an exceptional year for AvalonBay as we look back on it. The year began with the closing of a $6.5 billion Archstone portfolio. We delivered sector leading OFFO growth, getting contributions from the existing portfolio as well as a record level of development currently underway and we raised the most capital in our Company's history.

We are looking forward to this year as well as solid fundamentals and strong competitive position should result in above trend growth and while there are always risk associated with shifts in the macroeconomic and capital market environment, we believe AVB is well positioned to continue providing the kind of cash flow and NAV growth we have in the past with a high quality and diverse portfolio and value added investment platforms that have created value consistently for 20 years for shareholders. And with that, Lauren, we'll now open the call for questions.

Thank you. (Operator instructions). Your first question comes from the line of David Toddy. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, guys. Tim, just a question on the pipeline and I know -- I think it was last quarter or the quarter before, you sort of commented that you expected the pipeline, the absolutely volume to begin to decelerate and it looks like the fourth quarter was a bit flat sequentially and I know it's somewhat lumpy.

What's your view going into the year relative to, you know, the sort of implicit deceleration of that pipeline or has the environment changed enough that you feel comfortable kind of going full speed at current levels?

Yes, David, I'll offer a couple of comments and Matt you may want to jump in. To be honest, we didn't go into this year anticipating we were going to be able to grow the shadow pipeline by $1.5 billion ex sort of the Archstone activity. Our expectations that we could grow were about $1 billion just based upon at least our view of what the market might offer at the beginning of last year.

Having said that, the opportunities that we bring in, frankly the economics are equivalent to what we have been seeing, kind of mid-, high-6% projected yield with roughly, current development land costs have been consistent with the prior generation of development rights. Having said that, I would expect the development pipeline to start to contract a bit in 2014.

We are certainly much more selective than we have been over the last few years. So I think we'd anticipate that that would start to contract a bit. Particularly as we are also busy executing the pipeline we have in front of us.

Okay. And then just as a follow-up and maybe I missed this in the call, the CapEx appears to have -- your recurring CapEx appears to have popped up in the end of the year. Was that Archstone related?

David, this is Sean Breslin, in terms of CapEx, if you look at the full year 2013 it was actually a little bit lower than we would have anticipated due to a couple of things; primarily the fact that some of the projects we anticipated executing were delayed as we acquired the Archstone asset and spent a fair amount of 2013 trying to evaluate those assets in terms of the physical need.

So it did pop up as we started to complete that process and started to execute projects in the fourth quarter and would expect it to be a little more elevated in 2014 as we catch up on some of the AvalonBay projects that were delayed from 2013 into 2014 and start to implement the capital program that we have established for the Archstone assets.

Okay. Thanks for the detail today.

Our next question comes from Nick Joseph at Citi. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. To get to the high end on the same-store revenue growth guidance, you're going to need to see a reacceleration of quarterly growth. So what gives you the confidence that you will see that and what are you assuming in terms of occupancy and rent growth at the high end?

Nick, this is Sean. A couple of comments in terms of the acceleration. The slide deck that we've posted gave you some general ranges in terms of the markets. But essentially what we're seeing is, the softness that we are experiencing or deceleration that we're seeing in the Mid-Atlantic a little bit in Northern California and New York, we think is going to be essentially offset by what we're seeing in terms of growth in Boston and in Southern California.

Just to give you some examples, when we look at Q4 renewals, in the Boston market, we're in the 5% to 6% range, which is, 100 to 200 basis points above where we were in Q4 of 2012. And in Southern California the renewals were in the high 5% range which is about 150 basis points higher than we were in Q4 2012.

As we see where we are in Q1, that same trend is continuing as we look at both of those regions in terms of the trend being elevated relative to 2012. So the trend in those two markets, which are the two markets we expect to accelerate is fitting the current business pattern.

In terms of your specific question about occupancy for the AvalonBay same-store basket, we're essentially not -- essentially saying occupancy is going to be about the same as it was in 2013. In the Archstone assets we do expect to pick up, though, probably about 50 or 60 basis points of occupancy, which will support revenue growth in 2014 and that portfolio when it enters the same-store basket in the second quarter.

Nick, this is Tim. Just to be clear, our expectations are that we're going to perform at the midpoint. And over the last couple years we've been within 10 basis points of the midpoint of our range.

Our expectations aren't -- we aren't going to perform at the high end of the range or the low end of the range but at the mid point of the range. And as I mentioned in my opening remarks it's 70 basis point on average over -- from 2013 and we're starting the year around 4% in terms of gross potential being above the prior year.

Hey, Tim, it's Michael Bilerman speaking, certainly appreciate all the disclosure this morning.

As you think about your -- this cost of capital heat map on slide 18 and you sort of see equity which is not a great funding source relative to your history, I'm just curious as you think about the flip side of that in terms of buying your equity which I know has not been a key focus of yours, but at some point does the continued asset sales and accretive development that you're doing, can that be enhanced through some of the capital you're raising under leverage by taking down some of your own equity?

Tom, you want to handle that?

Yes, Michael, this is Tom Sargeant. I think we've said in the past that when you look at AvalonBay's uses of capital and its thoughts about capital allocation, allocating capital to development which is yielding, in the sixes and stabilizing into the sevens is a very attractive use of capital. And buying back our stock in, say, the mid-fives and applied cap rate, we think a trade a 7 is a superior allocation of capital than the 5.5.

And so we are unique in that we do have that alternative. If we didn't have the development pipeline and we're just looking to buy assets, it might be a different story in terms of how we would allocate capital.

But as we sit here today and for most of the Company's history, the superior capital allocation choice has been to invest that capital in development as opposed to buying back our stock. We do have a stock buyback program that's available to us and of course it has not been active in 2013 or actually since I think 2008 is the last time we bought any shares but that is an option that we have but it's not the best allocation of capital that we have today.

Did the Lehman state come to you prior to them liquidating a fair amount of their stake at all?

No.

Okay. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Derek Bower at ISI group. Please go ahead.

Great. Thanks. Good afternoon. I just want to follow up on guidance. Can you also provide what you expect for the average new and renewal rate increases throughout 2014.

Yes, Derek, this is Sean. Based on what we can tell you right now just in aggregate, we're expecting blended rent change to average in the 4% range over the course of the year. Obviously that is cyclical as you know as you move through the seasons throughout the year. But that would be the average for the year on a blended basis.

Okay. And then just looking at attachment 15 is it the correct understanding that when Archstone rolls into same-store in April that it will still have no impact to same-store guidance? Maybe asked another way, if you had never purchased Archstone would you still expect to see the same amount of acceleration that you're forecasting in your guidance?

Derek, let me answer the specific question. The first part of it, we are providing the same guidance in terms of the combined Archstone, AvalonBay portfolio in the last three quarters of the year as if the -- same as the AvalonBay portfolio for the entire year.

If you think about it in terms of the mix of the Archstone assets, there is a percentage that's coming in, about 25% coming in from DC that will pull the average down. But offsetting that is the performance that we're seeing in Southern California which is about 30% of that basket as well as even though it's decelerating in Northern California is about another 20% of the Archstone basket.

So you got about 50% of that portfolio is coming in from the West Coast including the accelerated Southern California region to help offset what's happening in the Mid-Atlantic in terms of the slowdown there or any deceleration in New York. So net, net when you add it up all it comes in about the same range.

We should think about the ranges are the same but your Avalon same store legacy same stores is probably a little bit below the midpoint and Archstone just adding a little bit above and that's how you're keeping the same range; is that right?

No, I wouldn't quite say that, no. The range we've provided for the Avalon-based standalone and the Archstone/AvalonBay basket for the last three quarters just ends up being basically the same range.

Got it. And then lastly what will be the key factor that determines if the $1.5 billion of capital is going to be weighted more towards debt versus asset sales and how should we think about timing throughout the year? Is that going to be more back half weighted or steady throughout the year?

This is Kevin O'Shea. In terms of sort of our perspective on the mix between asset sales and unsecured debt, consistent with our past practice of match funding on a leverage neutral basis, our plan is that it would be predominantly oriented toward asset sales.

In terms of the timing it will be roughly rateable through the year but probably a little bit more weighted toward the back half just given where our cash position is today.

Got it. Great. Thank you very much.

Our next question is from Ryan Bennett at Zelman and Associates please go ahead.

Good afternoon. I was wondering if you could provide incremental more color on your guidance in particular given the weakness we have seen there in the past couple quarters? And based on your guidance in slide 14 or so, you're projecting to kind of stabilize throughout the year. What's giving you the confidence that market is going to stabilize?

Ryan, this is Sean, we missed the first part of your question. Would you mind restating please?

Sorry about that. For New York we've seen it be weak here over the past couple of quarters. I was wondering given your guidance on slide 14 it implies that some stabilization in the New York markets. Curious what's driving your assumptions there for the market?

In terms of New York and really for any other market, it is built up based on one sort of what the built-in growth rate is given where growth potential is starting the year relative to last year as well as our outlook for job growth, renter household formation, blended with the new supply that's coming online. So we saw some softening in New York in the back half of last year and we're expecting that that market will continue to decelerate, not drastically but decelerate as we move through 2014 based on the supply/demand characteristics.

There is a fair amount of supply coming into New York right now. And for our same-store basket it's impacted probably by a couple of major factors, one is we have two large assets in Long Island City, the influence performance of that basket. There's about 1700 units being delivered into that market right now and there'll be another 700 or so that will come in, I believe it's in July. Then in addition to that, we are also seeing some supply come into the midtown west sector. We've got two assets there, so three assets in lease up, two that have been leasing for a while that we'll complete in the next quarter or two as well as the Gotham deal that will start leasing -- just started leasing and will be leasing for the remainder of 2014.

So look at it as a base and build it up but we do see deceleration in that market from 2013 to 2014 based on the composition of our portfolio in the greater New York City region.

Okay. Understood. Going back to Archstone real quick. In terms of the net operating income that you provided for guidance in the first quarter, it's down from what it was in the fourth quarter here. I'm wondering how much of that is being driven by recent asset sales or what you're expecting to sell in the quarter versus just operations.

Yes. The major difference really is the composition of the basket. There's a few things going on there, one is dispositions that we have had throughout the course of the year including a couple that were sold in the fourth quarter.

In addition, we determined there's probably a handful of assets that are related to oakwood that are on master leases with oakwood sort of legacy from Archstone that are not rolling into same-store because they don't necessarily represent market performance. They reflect sort of previously negotiated terms under the master lease.

So it's just a very different basket of assets in terms of the NOI. Then in addition to that, it's not necessarily comparable because during the first year of our ownership of the Archstone assets, there's some expenditures that are capitalized as we get into the first quarter, some of those items will become expensed once we clip 12 months.

So it's a little bit of an apples and oranges comparison if you're trying to go sequentially from the Q4 Archstone NOI to the Q1 Archstone NOI.

Okay. Thank you.

Yes.

The next question comes from Nick Yulico at UBS. Please go ahead.

Thanks. I was hoping to get the new and renewal lease rates for DC in the fourth quarter and how they've been trending so far this year.

For DC specifically be happy to talk about that. When you look at DC in the fourth quarter it was pretty weak, combination of not only the elevated level of flag kind of kicking in in the fourth quarter which is sort of at the rate we expect to see in the first part of 2014 but also a lot of the generations that were going on with the government created a fair amount of uncertainty.

So in terms of new move-ins, new move-ins were down in the 7% range in the DC region and then renewals were coming in at about 2.5%. As we roll forward to where we are in 2014, renewals look slightly better. They're actually in the 4% range. But new move-ins continued to hold at negative levels, not quite as bad as the fourth quarter based on what we are seeing in January, it's sort of in the down 5% to 6% range.

And then as you think about that market and you think about the supply that gets delivered in Arlington versus in the district, what is your outlook on the supply in Arlington, whether you think it will kind of get absorbed this year and then it's mostly in 2014 impact and then similarly in the district, is that an impact that you think gets resolved this year of is it more likely to linger into 2015?

It depends on a couple of things. The big one being your expectation for job growth.

If you look at the deliveries, I guess starting with northern Virginia, if you look at the RBC corridor as an example, the peak deliveries are in 2014 a little over 1000 units coming in 2014. But it's cut in half down to about 500 units as you move into 2015.

In DC it really depends on where you are so If you look at Noma as example, it's about 1400 units in 2014. It's about the same level slightly higher in 2015.

Just one thing we have to keep in mind is, the delivery schedules on several of these assets have been delayed multiple times so things can shift around a bit. But I'd say DC, that's the bulk of it is called 50/50 between 2014 and 2015. Northern Virginia, particularly the Arlington area tends to be a little more front loaded in 2014 versus 2015.

So we can talk about the supply. It really depends on what happens on job growth in terms of how much will be absorbed in 2014 versus carrying over in terms of the impact on 2015.

Appreciate that and just one last DC question. Have you at all been forced to raise your supply forecast for DC over the past several months? As far as supply on the market.

I wouldn't say increase it as it relates to 2014. We have seen some shifts in terms of deals being delayed as I mentioned. So there's been volume that's been shifted from -- it was late 2013 is now early 2014 and stuff that's in the back half of 2014 you still put some probability on whether they're actually going to execute it and get it delivered at that point versus some of it shifting into 2015. But in terms of absolute numbers I wouldn't say that it's increased by any significance, no.

Okay. Thank you.

Next question comes from Alexander Goldfarb at Sandler O'Neill. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Coming back to the guidance for a minute. If we take the guidance as was indicated before it implies a pretty good ramp-up in the back half of the year, so understand that you have $1 billion of development that's going to stabilize throughout the year. But it also sounds like you're going to have a fair amount of dispositions and the dispositions would seem to clearly offset some of the development.

If you assume sort of a partial contribution of each, there's maybe $0.10 net positive impact. Can you just talk where the the extra sort of $0.25 of FFO is coming from above just the standard 4% from the same-store NOI pool?

Alex, this is Tim. I'll give it a shot. I think it's more than what you'd mentioned in terms of -- in terms of development.

First of all you got some free cash flow and then whether it's debt or whether it's asset sales, you're talking about a marginal cost that's in the -- somewhere in the fours against a development that's been stabilizing close to 7%. So you've got that much -- you got about 250 basis point margin on call it $1 billion.

Somewhere between $750 million and $1 billion that's stabilizing. So we think that contributes around 2.5%, 3% to the -- to FFO growth. Then you do have the stabilizing effects of earning Archstone for a full year in 2014 versus 10 months in 2013 which contributes a couple percent as well.

Okay. Okay. And so then the back half, I mean, is it -- Tom, should we expect this to be sort of a raddable ramp-up? It almost sounds more like there's a much bigger step-up in the back half. Is that fair?

This is Kevin. You know, there is a bit of -- there's a bit of a ramp-up in the back half of the year from an operating impact as well as FFO. I think probably Sean, I don't know if you want to speak a little bit to the expenses in the first half. That may be playing a little bit into the FFO impact that may accelerate a little bit of the FFO impact.

Yes, one thing to note, Alex is that we saw some elevated OpEx in the fourth quarter of 2013. We do expect that to hold at a little bit higher level in the first half of 2014 as compared to the second half driven by a number of different factors; timing of insurance renewals as an example in terms of when that kicks in.

I also mentioned the accounting treatment of the Archstone expenditures that in the first 12 months were able to capitalize some of those costs based on our accounting treatment. But as you get into the -- get into February as an example and start shipping into March we have to start expensing all those costs. So you will see a year-over-year elevation in expenses in the first half and then it will fall off into the second half. So you will see greater NOI growth coming out of the second half to support greater earnings growth in the second half as well.

Alex, this -- I'm sorry, Alex, this is Tim and remember it's not unusual as you move through the year because most of your leases turn starting in the late second quarter going into the third quarter. So that's where you're going to get a lot of your growth in FFO through the calendar.

Yes, I know, I just asked because last year was sort of a similar scenario. Then it seemed a little bit less in the back half than was initially suggested.

Yes.

Tim, the final thing is, you guys in the press, Christie places on the market, does your guidance assume any promotes or any JV, one-time fee income?

No. This is Kevin again. Our guidance for 2014 does not include any promote income from Christie.

Okay. Thank you.

We will talk our next question from Rich Anderson at BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks and good afternoon. Good quarter. So if same-store is going to potentially accelerate in the second half of the year, I know you're certainly not going to give 2015 guidance right now but would a reasonable cycle suggest that that type of acceleration could extend a few years beyond this year?

Hey, Rich, this is Tim. I think there maybe too much being made of acceleration in 2014.

If you look at slide 15 essentially we have the rate of growth more or less flattening out as we move through the year. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we think this cycle looks a lot more like that in the 1990s where you had relatively stable supply and depending upon the strength of the economy in any one year, it was an expansion the whole time, it may go up a bit the rate of growth and then next year it may go down a bit.

As you can see in the 1990 -- this would be true by the way if you extended it back to 1992, 1993, it looks a little bit like sort of an EKG until you get to sort of the tech bubble in 2000. So that's our expectation going forward. What that means for 2015 whether it tips up a little bit or tips down, don't really have any guidance at this point with respect to --

Doesn't look like --

If you see supply deliveries being roughly flat, though, if not slightly down in 2015 as I mentioned in my prepared remarks.

Okay. And the cap rate commentary, you said 4.5% to 5.5% which is sort of similar to what the long-term 10-year average has been. How does that compare to last year? Have you seen cap rates ticking up a little bit or is it also a similar number versus last year in terms of pricing of assets?

Rich, this is Sean. Yes, cap rates haven't really moved much. There's been some discussion about, have they moved 20, 25 basis points as some people have commented on.

I'd say if there's been any cap rate movement it's probably been in sort of secondary tertiary markets or assets that are a little bit out of favor in terms of what someone is looking for. So if it's a B asset in a secondary market in the East Coast, I'd say.

On the West Coast I would say cap rates have been pretty darn stable. We sold assets in the fourth quarter, we sold a fair amount, $670 million or so of which about $500 million was AvalonBay wholly owned. And the cap rates for those assets weren't any different than what we would have expected 12 months ago, I'd say.

Okay.

Transaction market is pretty liquid. If you look at RCA's data we are talking about $103 billion in transactions for 2013. That's right on par with the peak in 2007, around $100 billion and up 12% from last year. So it's a pretty liquid market with plenty of demand for product.

Okay. And on that issue are you seeing any -- is it the condo market starting to play a role in your disposition discussions or is that still too premature?

Still too premature at this point. There's a lot of chatter about that but there's not a lot of action.

Okay. And then just a kind of broader question on Archstone it's been asked a few different ways. But if you're getting the same kind of identical growth prospect from this big portfolio you've inherited, you're not getting any immediate advantage from that huge investment at least right now, what are the one or two reasons, like why should we have -- we be so excited about the inclusion of the Archstone portfolio?

Like what's the long-term reason you made the investment if you're not getting any more from an internal growth prospect -- from an internal growth perspective, I meant, from the portfolio?

Rich, this is Tim. I think I'll handle that. When you get into -- first of all Archstone was an accretive investment and generally when you get into large M&A it tends to be dilutive so --

For noncash reasons in large part; is that right?

Well, we can have a long discussion on that. It's probably better to have offline. But we believe it to be accretive on a go forward basis.

Certainly in terms of as we talked about, very complimentary in terms of the geography and the nature of the transaction where we were able to team up with EQR. Both of us to get more of what we wanted what's made it a very unusual transaction.

We picked up 30% -- as Sean mentioned 30% in southern Cal, 20% in northern Cal so half of what we picked up was in California. And we always looked at the West Coast. We always looked at needing to supplement our development pipeline there with acquisitions in order to continue to have a roughly balanced portfolio in our view.

And then just, there are scale benefits. If you just look at G&A and where that's trended relative to where it was before this transaction and what that means for additional cash flow bottom line that gets to the shareholder, there are definitely some benefits there.

And we picked up some capabilities and we're able to continue to expand some capabilities organizationally that we think will have payoff as it relates to our portfolio management. And again ultimately into increased cash flow for shareholders.

Do you think that your FFO or AFFO guidance for 2014 would have been 10% lower without Archstone? Have you done that analysis how much better it is with it?

No. We've already funded Archstone as part of the Company it's now an AvalonBay property so no need to do that.

Rich it's Sean, the other thing to keep in mind on that, you're talking about the impact on same-store numbers for one short period of time. So we certainly look a longer-term view of the portfolio in terms of how we thought it would perform relative to our base portfolio and feel very good about the long-term prospects of those assets.

If you said would you buy Archstone just because you're worried about what might happen in DC in the short run, that wasn't the topic that was on our mind when we bought the portfolio.

Certainly the reason my question, not for this year. It was actually meant to be a softball so, sorry. Thank you.

Yes, thanks.

Next question comes from Dave Bragg at Green Street Advisors. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon to you. Thank you.

As it relates to your revenue budgeting, how would you characterize your process? It sounds very much so like a topdown approach, you've provided a helpful macro overview. But to what extent do you balance that with a bottom up asset by asset outlook as well?

Dave, this is Sean. It is a balanced approach, I guess I'll say, so certainly the management team set some parameters based on macro factors that are going on in the economic environment. What's happening with supply, Tim alluded to some of the major factors related to personal income growth and the correlation with rent growth, and things of that sort.

And so we sort of provide a framework for the operating team in terms of what we might expect in a market but then they certainly create bottoms up budgets based on what they know is delivering down the street from one property versus no supply next to another property as well as other issues sort of at the asset and submarket levels. So it is a balanced approach.

And historically in your markets have you seen a stronger correlation between personal income growth and revenue growth than job growth and revenue growth?

Yes, that's correct.

Yes, Dave, just to be clear. Personal income growth in effect captures job growth underneath of it so it's not sort of same household growth, if you will. It's capturing sort of the increase in the collective buying power of that particular market. I think that's the reason why it ends up having a higher R square if you will with respect to rent growth.

Got it and this doesn't impact your outlook for 2014, of course, but I was curious, what is your outlook for national multifamily starts in 2014 relative to 2013? You've been pretty vocal on that in the past.

I'm sorry. Can you repeat the question. I'm not sure I caught it exactly. So our expectations of 2014, go ahead again.

National, multifamily starts in 2014 relative to 2013. If I recall correctly over the past year or two, you've been pretty vocal on an outlook for a flattening out in start activity. Which seems to be occurring.

Yes and I think I've also been speaking to deliveries as well as because you can see it in the permit and the start data and we roll it up just at a regional level as well. I think one of the things I've said, Dave in the past is what was unusual about this cycle is we saw -- we saw starts earlier in our markets than we traditionally have in the cycle.

It's where capital wanted to be and the deals that were -- or the land deals that were already entitled or more or less ready to go got funded and so now we are back to having to go through the entire process and this often takes two to four years in our markets, you can just see supply coming from a lot -- a lot further away than you could have just two or three years ago when there were no more deals that were tied and teed up together. They needed capital of somebody to process them.

That's helpful. Is it your view that there will be less starts in your market in 2014 than 2013?

Dave, this is Sean. Just one comment to add and I know you were at NMHC as well. But the last three or four months starts have been trending pretty flat around 75 to 80, look at it in terms of just pure starts.

Based on what we're hearing just and totally from talking to developers is that they are starting to experience some tightening in terms of the availability of equity capital to fund development deals. And NMHC has an index that tracks whether equity is more or less available for new developments.

And I think the last two quarters or the first two quarters in about two years where that actually has gone negative in terms of the availability of capital to start development, multifamily rental development specific product is tightened. So based on what we are hearing from that perspective as well as the trends in construction costs over the last couple of years, I think there is some pressure on deals penciling and making sense. So try to extrapolate exactly what that means for starts other than it probably will be a more challenging environment for starts in 2014 as compared to 2013.

Hey, Dave, this is Tim. Just to answer your question, we are expecting less deliveries in 2016 which would imply less starts in 2014.

Thank you. And the last question relates to the transaction environment.

Can you share your observations on buyer demand for portfolios relative to individual assets. Are there -- is there more demand today for portfolios than there was say a year ago?

Dave, it's Sean. That's a hard question to answer, portfolios are so -- portfolio trades are so episodic based on unique circumstances that it's hard to dictate what people are thinking about. Certainly the individual trade market is very active as I mentioned. It's the entire market traded about $100 billion in 2013, about 60% of that is individual transactions, about 40% was portfolio trades or entity deals.

That's certainly a pretty big number so you wouldn't expect to see that in 2014. I don't know that it means that there's less appetite for portfolio trades. I think it really comes down to the economics of the specific deals and who wants to transact. So it's hard to extrapolate a trend from that data in terms of what the appetite might be in 2014 for portfolio deals.

Okay. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Vincent Chao at Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Most of my questions have been answered here but maybe just a question on the development rights side of things. If I heard correctly I think 50% of starts for 2014 are going to be in Boston and Southern California where you're seeing the best demand.

I didn't see any additional development rights in those markets. Just curious if you could comment on how difficult it is to add land or rights in those markets. And if at the end of 2014 will you be pretty much exhausted in terms of capacity there.

Yes, sure. Vincent, this is Matt. I'll speak to that a little bit.

It is to some extent driven by the opportunities that the teams see in the local markets which is hard to predict and also just by the level of activity there. So we did stock up heavily on Southern California development rights over the last 18 months and the team has really been focused on holding those through over the last -- since that time really.

So we've had three starts in southern Cal back half of this year we expect three more next year. So that has consumed a lot of their focus still have execution there. I think that we still expect and hopeful that we will grow our development rights pipeline in Southern California some during the year but the best deals are usually the ones you see early in the cycle so I'm not sure we'll be able to restock it to the same extent as we are taking deals out and into production.

Boston's a little more steady actually, we've been able to add development rights there at a pretty steady clip, kind of year in and year out. So we do see kind of a bunch of starts coming there this year as well. But that team has been very successful over the years.

So I do think what we are seeing is a little bit of a shift in the composition there and just a little color on that that I think sheds some light on the variety of our development activity. We are looking at probably three starts in the Boston metro area this year, one of which would be a high-rise downtown, one of which would be a medium density wood train deal kind of in the 128 corridor and a third of which would be a surface parts wood frame deal in the 495 corridor.

So we are trying to be mindful of kind of keeping that diversity, the pipeline going and responding to the opportunities that are different in each market and at different points in the cycle.

Okay. And just maybe moving over to New Jersey where you did pick up some rights, really have a fairly big portfolio there. And, just curious what the thinking is there given that most of the job growth in the area seems to be more in the -- in New York City or is this just to absorb the overflow or are you expecting to see New Jersey really pick it up here shortly?

This is Matt again. I guess I would say New Jersey is our focus on New Jersey has been almost entirely inland in the very high barrier to entry submarkets that are a way from the water, away from the coast. And so there are lot of deals there, a lot of those are 200, 250 unit wood framed deals so average capital investment per deal is on the lower end.

And that is one of our highest yielding markets in terms of development yields because it's so supply constrained. So but it takes a long time to take those deals through the process. Those are very much deals that as Tim was speaking to, you're bringing them through a process, there's a rezoning involved, sometimes there's a tax abatement involved so it probably takes that many deals to get to the point that we can start a reasonable volume year after year there.

Okay. Thanks for that color. Appreciate it.

Our next question comes from Jeff Donnelly at Wells Fargo. Go ahead.

Good afternoon guys. Curious on expense growth what your assumption is specifically in the Mid-Atlantic region and what you can do to offset the expectation of declining revenue. Then outside of the Mid-Atlantic is your assumption for expense growth fairly consistent across the regions for 2014 or is there a lot of variability?

Yes, Jeff, this is Sean. In terms of expense growth, I mean what's really driving it across all the markets is the assumption for property taxes, controllable expenses for the most part are going to be in the 1% to 2% range. It moves around a little bit based on utilities and things like that. But really for the most part it's driven by taxes are a third roughly of our expense structure.

On a portfolio basis it's probably going to be up 4% to 4.5% but there is some noise in there in terms of which market's going to have more pressure versus others. And in terms of the Mid-Atlantic specifically, we're going to see some pressure there on taxes that, I wouldn't be surprised if OpEx in that market is in that 3.5% to 4% range as an example. You can squeeze controllables so much but when you've got taxes coming through and that's a third of your expense structure you can't just can't get rid of it.

Last question. In your presentation it looks like you expect supply growth to decelerate slightly in 2015 versus 2014. How do your handicap the risk that supply growth in 2015 proves materially stronger than your expectations at this point -- you may have deals slated for 2016 get accelerated and you can add-on to that. How does the supply look change if you factored in condos and single family in your markets?

Jeff, this is Tim. I don't know if there are a lot of condos planned in our market for the most part. We've generally identified from the ground up all the multifamily deals that are out there.

They almost need to have started by, call it the first quarter of 2014 to even show up in the delivery and supply chart for 2015. So I think it's probably a greater chance that some of the 2014 as Sean mentioned some of the 2014 deliveries could slide into 2015 and that's what might push 2015. But we don't think there's a lot of risk that when you look at the two years together that you'd see significantly more or less supply than what's depicted on the charts.

Great helpful guys, thanks.

Our next question comes from Paula Poskon at Robert W. Baird. Please go ahead.

Thank you good afternoon, gentlemen. I have a follow-up on Dave Bragg's question about personal income growth. I was actually surprised at how robust the projections are.

Does this basically negate investor concerns about rent to income ratios and to the extent you have such concerns, do those vary across your brands?

Paula, this is Sean. In terms of the personal income growth as Tim mentioned, there's a critical ingredient to be able to support rent growth. Right now across the portfolio rent income ratios are basically around long-term averages.

So to the extent that you want to be holding in that range, which is certainly in our best interest as well as the industry's, you do need to see personal income growth to make that work.

5% -- we start to see a 5% plus personal income growth, there's a lot of runway there on rent growth, if you think about it from our portfolio, every 1% or so increase in personal income given our average incomes equates to 4% to 5% rent growth across the portfolio. If we start seeing 5% personal income growth, it's definitely going to ease the pressure on rent to income ratios and people should be feeling pretty good about what they are paying in terms of their rent across the portfolio.

Paula, this is Tim. Just to add to that, I'm not sure that 5.5% is all that robust to be honest. I think personal income growth tracks kind of nominal GDP growth if you think about it over time.

And we are so focused on real GDP and sort of add the inflation factor in I think it's typically in that 5% to 5.5% range. So I'm not sure that it's a well above that trend figure. It may be by 50 or 70 basis points but we're really just looking for the economy to rebound to more normalized levels of growth which captures the personal income factor as well.

Thanks, Tim. And then following up also on the NMHC topic last week there was a lot of talk about the strengths in secondary markets, the tightening of the spreads and cap rates, et cetera. Any opportunities or temptation to stray from your current geographic footprint?

Paula, not based upon one meeting NMHC certainly but --

There's been a lot of talk obviously about the energy sector driving places like western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio up through New York, et cetera as a long-term play, clearly Archstone had assets even in South Florida which is clearly rebounding. so I wondered if given that back drop on a long-term basis if you were thinking more broadly about other markets.

Well, we try not to be complacent about strategy. It's something we revisit at least annually in terms of our market footprint as well as the various growth platforms that we're looking to lever in a particular year. But at this point right now, I couldn't say there's a lot of interest at this point pursuing those markets.

Thanks, Tim.

You're welcome.

(Operator Instructions) And our next question comes from Haendel St. Juste from Morgan Stanley, please go ahead.

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. So can you guys talk a bit about -- more about Boston.

Near-term expectations, you mentioned earlier that you're going to start a few projects there. But we've seen some moderation in that market both in your results, Axio is a market that held up well during the downturn and while rents are well above certain historical measures, looking ahead to look like supplies expected to rent meaningfully over the next year, year and change here.

So help us understand how you're thinking about this market perhaps comparison versus New York City. Then what type of revenue growth are you forecasting for Boston near term?

This is Sean. In terms of Boston, you may want to think about it as sort of a tale of two cities or two submarkets which is urban versus suburban.

In terms of our portfolio, in terms of what's been outperforming, the suburban markets is clearly started to outperform the urban sector and so the majority of our portfolio is in the suburban markets in Boston, north shore, south shore, you know, metro west, et cetera. As we look forward into 2014, the support for our revenue growth assumptions comes from the suburban portfolio.

We've got the potential center in the back bay and a couple of other communities under construction but we are expecting those suburban communities to outperform given the limited supply characteristics that we see just based on the pipeline. We can count the projects that are under production in the urban core as compared to the suburbs and those are very different numbers.

If you add a highly concentrated portfolio in the urban core in Boston over the next 12 to 24 months it's probably going to soften relatively materially. But based on what we're seeing in the suburbs and the fact that a number of those towns are now at or above their 40B requirements in terms of affordable housing probably going to put more pressure on supply downward in the suburbs as compared to even the last decade. I think you need to think about Boston sort of that way, kind of urban versus --

Appreciate that and obviously Boston market been well very popular for institutional capital and given your comments about supply coming online in the core and earlier comments about potential asset dispositions, would this be a market that we should think of well pretty high on the list of planned dispositions for 2014?

I wouldn't necessarily say that. I mean, we look at our entire portfolio in terms of trying to identify where the market's pricing those assets as compared to where we think the assets should trade and what the forward IRRs on in each market in terms of trying to decide which communities to sell.

So we value Boston just like any other market. How much we're building in a particular market does impact that decision as well. We have a fair amount going in Boston.

We have a lot going in New York. We have more than $700 million going in New York. That was one of the factors that influenced our desire to consider selling Christie places an example which Tim mentioned earlier. So a whole lot of factors that goes into -- that go into deciding which assets to sell. So we might sell an asset or two in Boston but it's not necessarily targeted for disposition for any particular reason.

Thanks. That's all for me.

Our next question comes from Michael Salinsky at RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon, guys. Just to go back to kind of looking at the revenue breakout, I know you guys haven't provided data on Eaves versus Avalon communities in the past but can you break out what your expectations are? Is Boston going to be a road map where suburban outperforms the urban assets across many of your markets in 2014 or is that going to be more of an anomaly?

Mike, it's Sean. Don't really have an answer for you on the Eaves question specifically but in terms of urban versus suburban, I think Tim mentioned earlier in his remarks, prepared remarks that most of supply in many of these markets is concentrated in the urban core.

So as we look out over the next couple of years and you think about what's happening in Boston, what's happening in Seattle, parts of San Francisco as an example, the supply is concentrated more in the urban core so it's more likely that the suburban portfolio is going to outperform if you look at just supply as a percentage of inventory in the suburban markets versus the urban markets and then in particular as our market research -- market research expert Craig Thomas reminds us that as housing continues to ramp up, you get a fair amount of production coming out of the suburban markets to support job growth in those markets that will help as well.

That's helpful. Second question, Tim in your comments you talked about material costs being up. Can you give us a sense of how much you're seeing there? Also can you talk about competition for new sites today, how much competition you're seeing has that slowed a bit just given the changes in financing and some of the other things you talked about previously.

Yes, the first part of your question was on material costs; is that right?

Yes, material costs and then can you talk about competition for new entitled sites.

Sure. Matt you want to take that?

Sure. There's really more construction costs more broadly, I think we are seeing a deceleration in the rate of inflation in construction costs. There are still pressures probably in our markets for most of what we do which is typically wood framed, maybe construction costs are up low to mid single digits, 4% to 5% over the last 12 months except probably in California where it's still it's materially higher than that probably mid to single high digits. But we do see that starting to stabilize a bit in the regions except for California. I'm sorry. What was the second part of the question?

Just in terms of competition for entitled land sites.

Yes. It's a crowded marketplace out there. I would say, the sites that we're entitled and ready to go early in the cycle and just needed capital and some execution as Tim had mentioned, those are pretty much gone at this point. And if there's any of those out there, they're bid up to returns that are probably not that attractive to us. We still in the high barrier suburban submarkets where there's real entitlement issues we're still very strong competitors in those situations so I would say the northeast has been pretty stable, probably the West Coast is the area that is more cyclical and where it's probably gotten more aggressive relative to where it might have been a year or two ago. And then I guess the other market that's been incredibly competitive has been New York, New York City specifically.

Okay. And final question. I mean, we continue -- markets ebbs and flows and continue to talk about how bad DC is but generally when things look bad might be the time to start planning developments because eventually they do improve. You know, is DC on the development docket for 2014 or do you think that's the market that's going to be challenged for a couple of years and you want to hold off starting new projects in 2014 there?

Yes, this is Matt again. We do have a fair amount of development rights in DC actually including several that we picked up from Archstone.

So we've been cautious in DC but I think you're right that as you look out a couple years out, hopefully the supply-demand fundamentals start to improve significantly. And we can still develop product in the DC metro area at a pretty compelling cost basis. It's still surprising where assets are trading relative to replacement costs.

We may have a start or two in the DC metro area in the next 4 to 6 quarters call it. And we actually do have a reasonable pipeline looking out to potential 2015 or 2016 starts in DC just based on what we had before plus what we got from Archstone and one or two others that we have been able to pick up in the last year or so as the market has continued to soften a bit here.

And finally in terms of CapEx for 2014, obviously as you roll in you've owned a lot of the Archstone assets now for almost 12 months got a pretty good handle on CapEx, talked about some redevelopment ramp-up there. Can you give a sense what you're thinking in terms of this recurring CapEx in 2014 relative to 2013.

Yes, Mike, this is Sean. I think I mentioned earlier that 2013 was a little bit depressed for us given the focus on trying to go through the Archstone portfolio and identify the CapEx requirements both near-term and long-term, identify redevelopment candidates as well as with some of the work going on, some delays in some of the CapEx for the AvalonBay portfolio. So look forward to 2014 it's going to be more elevated and then we'll trail off.

We haven't finalized the numbers yet but I wouldn't be surprised if we're in the 800 to 900 a unit range as we look at 2014 in terms of catching up from AvalonBay projects in 2013 and getting through the initial rounds of the Archstone CapEx as well.

Great. Thank you much.

Sure.

Our next question is from Jane Wong at Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

This is Jeff Spector with Jane. Thanks for the presentation. Just a couple of final questions from us.

On slide 8 when we look at 2014 job growth, I guess at least I was thinking that in your markets we might see higher job growth than the US. Can you just discuss that a little bit. Is it the same markets that dragged your numbers down in 2013?

Well, it's -- I'll start and it's Tim. Generally we expect to see higher job growth in the West Coast than the East Coast. Seattle is actually a little slower, projected to be a little slower next year than it was in either 2013 or we expect in 2015. That's maybe one anomaly.

And southern and Northern California, Northern California is projected to have the strongest growth in the mid to higher twos whereas I think Southern California is just a little north of 2% and then on the East Coast generally in the high 1% starting to approach 2% depending upon the market. DC a little softer in 2014 than it would be projected to be in 2015.

So I don't know if that answers your question, Jeff. It's really not until 2015 we sort of see kind of all markets kind of firing on all cylinders, a little bit of a story, some markets being up a bit and some being down a bit but on average up about 30 bips.

That helps, thanks. Then just one final question on deliveries since it's been such a focus and at least we're thinking it's still one of the key risks in 2014, 2015. When your team is doing their work, I know of course we talked about permits and supplies, what else are they looking at?

I mean are they getting information from the managers in the field on what projects actually seeing out at the ground? What other steps are being taken?

Jeff, this is Tim. We've got developers on the ground in every market and so they literally go through the -- they literally develop a pipeline sort of zero based and they know the people financing the deals and permitting the deals. So that's really -- it really is very much sort of a built-up pipeline if you will and we have found that that frankly we sort of catch supplies before some of the third parties do that way.

I think we have a little more confidence in what we're able to sort of project over what third parties are telling us which oftentimes they don't sort of pick it up until it is coming out of the ground. So again I think in 2014 and 2015 in terms of deliveries we're not that concerned whether we've got -- whether there may be some surprises in our markets.

When you look at them collectively, I think you got to go further out before just given the gestation and production cycles of most of these deals before we have a lot of concern there. And we just don't see, again for the comments Matt had earlier and me before that, the same -- just the investment going into long dated entitlements that's going to produce extensive housing, multifamily housing in our markets.

We are talking about levels that are about two times historical norms just to be clear, which this is the time of the cycle you would expect that to happen. So we actually do see 2016 supply starting to come down, deliveries actually starting to come down in our markets.

Okay. Thanks. And then our last question is just on one of the comments at the beginning in your prepared remarks. What was the forward unleveraged IRR range you provided on the historical assets you've sold?

Sean maybe you want -- for -- I think the question is what was our projected forward unleveraged IRR assets that we sold. Maybe just talk about 2013, the --

Yes, I think Tim quoted a market cap rate for dispositions over the last decade or so, not necessarily a forward IRR but in terms of assets that have been sold recently, the forward IRR are those assets based on our models and our assumptions about revenue growth, expense growth is in the -- call it the low 6% range, somewhere in that ballpark.

Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.

Sure.

Our final question is a follow-up from Derek Bower. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks. I just had a quick follow-up on DC rent trends. It's interesting that renewals accelerated as new leases continued to hold negative. So how long do you expect that trend to hold or do you expect new leases to start to turn positive in the spring?

Yes, Derek, Sean. There's a little bit of seasonality in that. If you think about the fourth quarter kind of broad picture, supply ramped up to a higher level which is again a level we expect to see through the first half of 2014. There's also a pretty significant amount of uncertainty, it wasn't that long ago in September, October, November, in terms of discussions about the budget and debt ceiling and sequestration that people were uncertain about paychecks.

So the fourth quarter certainly had not only a seasonal slow down but I'd say some uncertainty that really prompted some difficult market characteristics. So as you move into January we typically start to see things ramp up even though DC is decelerating and is weak, it is still following that same seasonal pattern where you're seeing renewals more in the 4% range.

So how long can that last? That depends on a lot of different factors that I can't give you a great answer to other than we would expect first quarter, second quarter ramp-up relative to the fourth quarter given seasonal patterns, at what absolute levels it's hard to predict. Just really depends on the demand side at this point.

Okay. Thank you.

Yep.

At this time there are no further questions and I'll turn the call back to Mr. Naughton for some closing remarks.

Thank you, Lauren and thanks everyone for being on the call today. Hopefully you found this new format helpful. We'll be reaching out and seeing if you did.

But we look forward to seeing many of you over the next month or two and a number of you at the Citigroup CO conference in early March. Thanks again and have a nice day.