動視暴雪 (ATVI) 2004 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone. Welcome to this Activision fiscal 2004 third quarter earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded.

今天是個好日子。歡迎參加動視暴雪 2004 財年第三季財報電話會議。今天的通話正在錄音。

At this time for opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to the VP of IR, Kristen Southy. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將電話轉給 IR 副總裁 Kristen Southy 進行開場發言和介紹。請繼續。

Good afternoon. Thank you all for joining us today for our third quarter fiscal 2004 conference call. My name is Kristen Southy, VP of IR. I will start by reviewing our safe harbor disclosure and reminding everyone that the statements made during this call that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Although the company believes that its plans, intentions and expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, a number of factors could cause our actual future results to differ materially from those expressed in any such forward-looking statements. These important factors and other factors that potentially could effect our financial results are described in our filings with the SEC including form 10 K for the year ending March 31, 2003.

午安.感謝大家今天參加我們 2004 財年第三季的電話會議。我叫 Kristen Southy，IR 副總裁。首先，我將回顧我們的安全港披露，並提醒大家，本次電話會議中所做的非歷史事實的陳述都是前瞻性陳述。儘管公司認為此類前瞻性聲明中反映的計劃、意圖和期望是合理的，但許多因素可能導致我們未來的實際結果與任何此類前瞻性聲明中表達的結果存在重大差異。這些重要因素和其他可能影響我們財務表現的因素在我們向 SEC 提交的文件中進行了描述，其中包括截至 2003 年 3 月 31 日的年度的 10 K 表格。

Now I would like to introduce Bobby Kotick, our Chairman and CEO.

現在我想介紹一下我們的董事長兼執行長 Bobby Kotick。

Thank you, Kristen.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

As you know, on December 17 we significantly raised our quarterly outlook due to the strong sales of our recently released titles. The momentum we experienced during the third quarter continued at a pace that was greater than our expectations, and as a result, today, we announce results in excess of our outlook estimates. Our product line up for the holiday season represented some of the very best games we've ever created, and most of our titles performed ahead of our expectations. According to MPD, we had three top five titles in the December quarter, our most important quarter. Tony Hawk's Underground was the number two best selling console and handheld title in the December quarter. Our new release, True Crime: Streets of LA, was the fourth best selling title, and Call of Duty was the number one selling PC title in the December quarter. Our results for the quarter were the highest in the company's history, and we're obviously excited by our financial results, but we're really pleased by the value that we've created from more profession, predictable franchises. With our success establishing franchise brands like Tony Hawk's Underground, True Crime, and Call of Duty, we hope to predict even greater prove ability in our operating results.

如您所知，由於我們最近發布的遊戲銷量強勁，12 月 17 日我們大幅提高了季度預期。我們在第三季度經歷的勢頭繼續以超出我們預期的速度增長，因此，今天我們宣布的業績超出了我們的前景預期。我們的假期產品系列代表了我們創造的一些最好的遊戲，並且我們的大多數遊戲的表現都超出了我們的預期。根據 MPD 的數據，我們在 12 月季度（我們最重要的季度）擁有了三款前五名的遊戲。《Tony Hawk's Underground》是 12 月季度銷售第二高的遊戲機和掌上游戲。我們的新版本《真實犯罪：洛杉磯街道》是第四大暢銷遊戲，而《決勝時刻》是 12 月季度銷售第一的 PC 遊戲。我們本季的業績是公司歷史上最高的，我們顯然對我們的財務表現感到興奮，但我們對我們從更專業、可預測的特許經營中創造的價值感到非常高興。隨著我們成功建立《托尼霍克的地下》、《真實犯罪》和《決勝時刻》等特許經營品牌，我們希望預測我們的營運表現將得到更大的證明能力。

Over the past year, our management team has focused on strengthening our development process from concept creation to consumer research and quality game testing. This quarter proved to us that these initiatives are working. Free cash flow was $97 million for the quarter, and operating margin was 23%, a record for Activision. The results we achieved this quarter further enhanced our balance sheet, and we continue to improve on all important balance sheet metrics. We ended the quarter with $552 million in cash and short-term investments, very low inventories and $796 million in shareholders' equity. Once again, strict adherence to our stringent credit policies prevented losses with insolvent and marginal retailers. Today, we're substantially increasing our fiscal '04 outlook, both for the year, as well as the fourth quarter. The achievement of these revised outlook estimates would result in our fourth consecutive year of operating margin expansion, a company-wide focus.

在過去的一年裡，我們的管理團隊專注於加強從概念創建到消費者研究和品質遊戲測試的開發流程。本季向我們證明這些措施正在發揮作用。該季度自由現金流為 9,700 萬美元，營業利潤率為 23%，創下動視暴雪的紀錄。我們本季所取得的成果進一步增強了我們的資產負債表，並且我們持續改善所有重要的資產負債表指標。截至本季末，我們擁有 5.52 億美元的現金和短期投資、極低的庫存以及 7.96 億美元的股東權益。嚴格遵守我們嚴格的信貸政策，再次避免了無力償債和邊緣零售商的損失。今天，我們大幅提高了 04 財年和第四季的預期。這些修訂後的前景預測的實現將導致我們連續第四年實現營業利潤率擴張，這是全公司關注的焦點。

As we look to fiscal '05, we believe our business will continue to expand. Our line up is our strongest ever, and industry fundamentals should be very favorable this calendar year. We expect another year of record financial results. Our fiscal '05 slate is driven by big propositions including Spiderman 2, Shrek 2, Doom 3, Shark Tale, Lemony Snicket, Call of Duty, Finest Hour, and Rome: Total War. Today, we're very excited to announce we plan to ship a sequel to the best selling Tony Hawk's Underground in fiscal '05. The consumer response to Underground has been exceptional, and we're excited about the brand's new direction.

展望 05 財年，我們相信我們的業務將繼續擴大。我們的陣容是有史以來最強大的，今年的產業基本面應該非常有利。我們預計今年的財務業績將再創新高。我們05 財年的計畫主要由《蜘蛛人2》、《史瑞克2》、《毀滅戰士3》、《鯊魚故事》、《雷蒙尼·斯尼基》、《決勝時刻》、《最美時刻》和《羅馬：全面戰爭》等大片推動。今天，我們非常高興地宣布，我們計劃在 05 財年推出最暢銷的《托尼霍克地下城》的續集。消費者對 Underground 的反應非常好，我們對該品牌的新方向感到興奮。

Given our strong slate, we expect revenues to reach $1 billion in fiscal '05, which we believe will result in another year of margin expansion and record earnings. The long-term prospects for our business remain strong, and the management team continues to improve the product development process our global distribution reach. We have the intellectual properties, the development talent, and the balance sheet necessary to positively continue what is a long track record of growth and success.

鑑於我們的強勁實力，我們預計 05 財年的收入將達到 10 億美元，我們相信這將帶來另一年的利潤率擴張和創紀錄的利潤。我們業務的長期前景依然強勁，管理團隊不斷改進我們的全球分銷範圍的產品開發流程。我們擁有積極延續長期成長和成功記錄所需的智慧財產權、開發人才和資產負債表。

Ron will now share with you the highlights of our performance this quarter and provide an updated outlook for the future.

羅恩現在將與您分享我們本季的業績亮點，並提供對未來的最新展望。

Thank you, Bobby.

謝謝你，鮑比。

For the quarter ending December 31, net revenues were $509 million versus 379 million last year. That's an increase of 34% year over year. We had earnings per share of $79 cents at the quarter, almost double our earnings per share last year of 42 cents. Our record results were driven by the world-wide focus of our -- focus on a tidy and well-positioned slate. Our top selling titles for the quarter included Tony Hawk's Underground, True Crime: Streets of LA, and Cabela's Dangerous Hunts for the console, and Call of Duty, and Empires: Dawn of the Modern World for the PC. Catalog sales for the company's strongest franchises, including Tony Hawk's, Spiderman, and Cabela's, were also better than expected.

截至 12 月 31 日的季度，淨收入為 5.09 億美元，去年同期為 3.79 億美元。較去年同期成長 34%。本季我們的每股盈餘為 79 美分，幾乎是去年每股收益 42 美分的兩倍。我們創紀錄的業績是由我們在全球範圍內對整潔和位置良好的石板的關注所推動的。本季最暢銷的遊戲包括主機版《東尼霍克的地下城》、《真實犯罪：洛杉磯街頭》和《卡貝拉的危險狩獵》，以及PC 版《決勝時刻》和《帝國：現代世界的黎明》。該公司最強大的特許經營權（包括《東尼霍克》、《蜘蛛人》和《卡貝拉》）的目錄銷售也比預期好。

Our biggest property for the quarter was the all-new, totally redesigned Tony Hawk's Underground. Prior to launch, it was kind of difficult to gauge the acceptance level of the game's new direction, but today there is no question that the Tony Hawk franchise remains one of the highest rated and most popular brands of all time. Tony Hawk's Underground outsold Tony Hawk 4 in its release quarter on comparable platforms by more than 26% on a revenue basis. With a five consecutive season, track record of almost $800 million of cumulative sales, Tony Hawk has profession to be one of the most valuable franchises in the business.

我們本季最大的房產是全新、完全重新設計的托尼霍克地下鐵。在發布之前，很難衡量遊戲新方向的接受程度，但今天毫無疑問，《托尼霍克》系列仍然是有史以來評價最高和最受歡迎的品牌之一。以收入計算，《托尼霍克地下城》在發行季度在同類平台上的銷售量比《托尼霍克 4》高出了 26% 以上。憑藉連續五個賽季的累計銷售額近 8 億美元的記錄，托尼霍克 (Tony Hawk) 無疑是業內最有價值的特許經營權之一。

In addition to the new Tony Hawk product, we launched not one, but two new original properties. The first release was Call of Duty for the PC, our own original IP, which was developed by our internal studio, Infinity Ward. The title received excellent reviews from the gaming community and was the number one PC title in the December quarter and today still tops the charts. Additionally, Call of Duty is the best selling first-person action game of all time in terms of volume sold in the first two months.

除了托尼霍克新產品之外，我們還推出了兩款全新原創產品，而不是一款。第一個版本是 PC 版《決勝時刻》，這是我們自己的原始 IP，由我們的內部工作室 Infinity Ward 開發。該遊戲獲得了遊戲社群的好評，是 12 月季度排名第一的 PC 遊戲，至今仍位居榜首。此外，就前兩個月的銷售而言，《決勝時刻》是有史以來最暢銷的第一人稱動作遊戲。

Our second original product offering for the holiday season was True Crime: Streets of LA. This property represented a huge opportunity for Activision, but it also came with a significant amount of risk. This game is based on our wholly owned original IP and was developed by our Luxoflux studio. In creating this game, consumer testing played an important role all the way from original concept review to beta testing. With worldwide quarterly revenues of over $100 million, True Crime became one of the most successful franchise launches in the industry's history. We intend to invest substantial capital and human resources to ensure that the True Crime franchise is a source of large reoccurring and lasting revenue for Activision.

我們為假期推出的第二款原創產品是《真實犯罪：洛杉磯街道》。該資產對動視暴雪來說是一個巨大的機遇，但也伴隨著巨大的風險。遊戲基於我們全資原創IP，由我們的Luxoflux工作室開發。在創建這款遊戲的過程中，從最初的概念審查到 Beta 測試，消費者測試一直發揮著重要作用。《True Crime》的全球季度營收超過 1 億美元，成為該產業史上最成功的系列產品之一。我們打算投入大量資金和人力資源，以確保《真實犯罪》系列成為動視暴雪大量經常性和持久收入的來源。

Turning back to the financial results in the December quarter, our manufacturing and distribution expense was 46% of net revenues, down last year due to revenue mixed differences. Operation-- operating expenses, excluding manufacturing and distribution expense were about 31% of net revenues. Product development costs were about $50 million including the $22 million charge for product cancellations that we announced in November. This initiative has been completed, and we do not expect any further significant costs associated with it. Operating margin and long-time management focus hit a record 23%, up 550 basis points from last year. Margin improvement was driven by an increase in the percentage of revenues coming from our publishing business and the benefit of having three highly successful internally developed products, two of which were our own original intellectual properties.

回到 12 月季度的財務業績，我們的製造和分銷費用佔淨收入的 46%，由於收入混合差異，去年有所下降。營運－營運費用（不包括製造和分銷費用）約佔淨收入的 31%。產品開發成本約為 5000 萬美元，其中包括我們 11 月宣布的 2200 萬美元的產品取消費用。該計劃已經完成，我們預計不會再產生任何與之相關的重大成本。營業利益率和長期管理重點達到創紀錄的 23%，比去年增長 550 個基點。利潤率的提高是由於我們的出版業務收入百分比的增加以及擁有三種非常成功的內部開發產品的好處，其中兩種產品是我們自己的原創智慧財產權。

Now, looking at the balance sheet, on December 31, we had $552 million in cash and short-term investments versus $411 million last year. As of December 31, we had $650 million of working capital, an increase of $151 million versus September 30. At the end of the quarter, there were no repurchase agreements outstanding. The accounts receivable balance on December 31 was $242 million, up versus the prior year due to a stronger release schedule. The accounts receivable reserve of $69 million was down 8 million versus last year, as fuel inventories fell based on strong sell-through of our slate. The AR reserve as a percent of gross receivables equals 22%. DSO's for the quarter were 44 days. Inventories at the end of the quarter were $36 million, down 1 million versus last year. Of the 36 million, only 10 million relates to our publishing business, which is down 7 million versus last year. The remaining 26 million of inventory relates to our distribution business.

現在來看看資產負債表，截至 12 月 31 日，我們擁有 5.52 億美元的現金和短期投資，而去年為 4.11 億美元。截至 12 月 31 日，我們的營運資金為 6.5 億美元，比 9 月 30 日增加了 1.51 億美元。截至本季末，不存在尚未履行的回購協議。由於發布計畫更為嚴格，截至 12 月 31 日的應收帳款餘額為 2.42 億美元，較前一年增加。應收帳款準備金為 6,900 萬美元，比去年減少 800 萬美元，因為燃料庫存因我們的產品銷售強勁而下降。應收帳款準備金佔應收帳款總額的百分比為 22%。該季度的 DSO 為 44 天。本季末庫存為 3,600 萬美元，比去年減少 100 萬美元。在這 3,600 萬中，只有 1,000 萬與我們的出版業務有關，比去年減少了 700 萬。剩餘的2600萬庫存與我們的分銷業務有關。

Coming out of the holiday season, we feel very good about our inventory position, both in the warehouse and at retail. Capitalized software development costs on December 31, were $71 million, down 16 million versus September 30. Importantly less than 5% of our current capitalized software balance relates to products that have already been released. On December 31, capitalized intellectual properties licenses were $49 million versus 42 million on September 30. The increase was driven by a combination of payments required under existing and certain new IP agreements. On a year-over-year basis, capitalized IP licenses were down $3 million. Looking at the cash flow, for the three months ended December 31, we generated $97 million in free cash flow, significantly higher than for the same period last year.

假期結束後，我們對倉庫和零售的庫存狀況感覺非常好。12 月 31 日資本化軟體開發成本為 7,100 萬美元，比 9 月 30 日減少 1,600 萬美元。重要的是，我們目前資本化軟體餘額中只有不到 5% 與已經發布的產品相關。截至 12 月 31 日，資本化智慧財產權授權金額為 4,900 萬美元，而 9 月 30 日為 4,200 萬美元。這一增長是由現有和某些新知識產權協議所需的付款組合推動的。與去年同期相比，資本化 IP 授權減少了 300 萬美元。從現金流來看，截至12月31日的三個月，我們產生了9,700萬美元的自由現金流，顯著高於去年同期。

Now I would like to share our thoughts on the overall market, beginning with our hardware estimates. In calendar 2003, the install base in North America for current generation systems including handheld grew by 21 million units to finish at 56.7 million units, a 59% increase over last year. For calendar year end 2004, we expect the install base of hardware including handheld to grow to about 73 million units, driven by anticipated price cuts for the Play Station 2 and X Box and the introduction of Sony's new handheld device, the PSP.

現在我想分享我們對整個市場的看法，首先從我們的硬體估計開始。2003 年，北美當前一代系統（包括手持設備）的安裝量增加了 2,100 萬台，達到 5,670 萬台，比去年增長了 59%。到 2004 年底，我們預計，由於 Play Station 2 和 X Box 預期降價以及索尼新手持設備 PSP 的推出，包括手持設備在內的硬體安裝量將增長到約 7,300 萬台。

Looking at each system individually, at the end of calendar 2003, the Play Station 2 had an install base of 22.3 million units in the North America. We believe that there will be a price cut on the Play Station 2 hardware in mid-late 2004 to $149, and the hardware will end the calendar year with an estimated install base of about 28 million units. Microsoft's Xbox ended calendar 2003 with an install base of about 7.8 million units. We're projecting the install base of this base to grow by 10 million units by calendar year end. We also believe there will be a price cut on Xbox hardware in mid to late 2004 to $149. As of December 31, driven by a very well price cut to $99, the Game Cube had an install base of about 6.9 million units. Solid sales under Game Cube during the holiday season clearly shows that price does matter. We believe that the Game Cube will continue selling well at its new price point, and that its install base will grow to about 10 million units by year end 2004. At the end of December, the Game Boy Advance had a U.S. install base of 19.8 million units and we expect the install base of the game boy advance to hit 24 million units by calendar year end. However, we believe that the new hand held introductions expected in late 2004 will provide positive competition and lead to further growth in this market segment.

單獨查看每個系統，截至 2003 年底，Play Station 2 在北美的安裝量為 2,230 萬台。我們相信 Play Station 2 硬體將在 2004 年中後期降價至 149 美元，預計該硬體的安裝量將在 2004 年結束時達到約 2800 萬台。微軟的Xbox在2003年結束時的安裝量約為780萬台。我們預計到年底該基地的安裝量將增加 1,000 萬台。我們也相信 Xbox 硬體的價格將在 2004 年中後期降至 149 美元。截至 12 月 31 日，在大幅降價至 99 美元的推動下，Game Cube 的安裝量約為 690 萬台。Game Cube 在假期期間的強勁銷售清楚地表明價格確實很重要。我們相信 Game Cube 將在新的價位上繼續暢銷，到 2004 年底其安裝量將成長到約 1,000 萬台。截至 12 月底，Game Boy Advance 在美國的安裝量為 1,980 萬台，我們預計到年底，Game Boy Advance 的安裝量將達到 2,400 萬台。然而，我們相信，預計 2004 年底推出的新手持設備將帶來積極的競爭，並導致該細分市場的進一步成長。

The excitement in the handheld market is already starting to build as consumers get ready for the launch of two handheld devices in 2004. We're currently in development for the Sony PSP platform while awaiting more information for the Nintendo dual-screen handheld. We expect the PSP to launch around the holidays in U.S., and it's our expectation that the install base will be around 1 million units. It's still too early to provide an indication of our expectations for Nintendo's new device.

隨著消費者為 2004 年推出的兩款手持裝置做好準備，手持裝置市場的興奮點已經開始增強。我們目前正在針對索尼 PSP 平台進行開發，同時等待更多有關任天堂雙螢幕掌上電腦的資訊。我們預計 PSP 將於假期前後在美國推出，安裝量預計將達到 100 萬台左右。現在判斷我們對任天堂新設備的期望還為時過早。

In conclusion, the install base of current generation hardware is significant and growing. Today, the install base is more than 100% larger than at the same point in time in the last console cycle, despite the much higher average price point for the systems. The lack of hardware price cuts this holiday season and the launch of the new hand held give us reasons to believe that calendar 2004 should be a stronger than previously expected year for hardware. However, should we not see a hardware price cut this year, it will impact our forecasted install base numbers.

總之，目前一代硬體的安裝基礎非常重要，而且還在持續成長中。如今，儘管系統的平均價格要高得多，但安裝基礎比上一個主機週期的同一時間點增加了 100% 以上。這個假期季節硬體價格沒有下調，而且新手持機的推出使我們有理由相信，2004 年對於硬體來說應該是比之前預期的更強的一年。然而，如果我們今年不會看到硬體降價，它將影響我們預測的安裝基數。

Moving now to software, we define our market to include all major platforms in North America and Europe, and we exclude Japan. For calendar 2004, we expect to combine North American and European software markets for current consoles, handheld, and PC to be up about 8%. Looking at the market segments, we're projecting growth of 10% for the total current generation console market, which is defined as the Play Station 2, Xbox and Game Cube. The combined software growth rate for the current general council market and hand held market, which we define as the GBA and PSP, is projected to be 8-9% and add a PC market that we expect to grow at about 5%, and the expected combined growth rate for current general console handheld and PC video game software is roughly 8%.

現在轉向軟體，我們將市場定義為包括北美和歐洲的所有主要平台，但不包括日本。對於 2004 年日曆，我們預計當前遊戲機、掌上型電腦和 PC 的北美和歐洲軟體市場將成長約 8%。從細分市場來看，我們預計當前一代遊戲機市場（即 Play Station 2、Xbox 和 Game Cube）的整體成長率為 10%。目前的通用市場和手持市場（我們定義為 GBA 和 PSP）的綜合軟體增長率預計為 8-9%，加上我們預計將增長約 5% 的 PC 市場，以及當前通用遊戲機、手持設備和PC 視頻遊戲軟體的預期綜合成長率約為8%。

With respect for software pricing, premium pricing for triple A launch titles held throughout calendar 2003. In terms of our pricing assumptions for fiscal '05, we are planning that our slate of consoled products will have launch pricing of $49.99 through the next holiday season. Our reserves protect against continued price erosion, but if launch pricing for triple A titles drops abruptly before the holidays, we have exposure.

就軟體定價而言，2003 年全年對 3A 級發行遊戲均實施溢價。就我們 05 財年的定價假設而言，我們計劃在下一個假期季節之前推出一系列控制台產品的定價為 49.99 美元。我們的儲備金可以防止價格持續下跌，但如果 AAA 遊戲的發行價格在假期前突然下降，我們就會面臨風險。

Before turning to our current financial outlook, I would like to reiterate that there are a number of internal and external factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. I refer you to our financial filings with the SEC for a full review of our filings.

在談到我們當前的財務前景之前，我想重申，有許多內部和外部因素可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異。我建議您參閱我們向 SEC 提交的財務文件，以便對我們的文件進行全面審查。

Having said that, today we are increasing our fiscal by $40 million to 910 million and are raising our EPS expectations significantly by 16 cents to 72 cents, marking the highest earnings in the company's history. The increase in our outlook is driven by our overperformance in Q3 and an increase in our expectations for Q4. For fiscal '04, we expect manufacturing and distribution costs of 50% of net revenues with operating expenses including royalties of 39%. We project interest income of .8%, the fiscal '04 tax rate should be 35%, and will hold through Q4. Our fully diluted share count will be 97.3 million. For the fourth quarter, we're raising our revenue outlook to $125 million, and we are raising our earnings expectation to a loss tertiary of 2 cents. The upward revision is driven by increased catalog expectations partially offset by pricing and SKU assumptions. In the next two months, we will release three new titles, including Pitfall: The Lost Expedition for the console and handheld platforms, which is a visually exciting game that's fun for all audiences. We'll also release our fast-paced motor cross game, MTX Mototrax featuring Travis Pastrana on the Play Station 2 and the Xbox, and we're releasing Tenchu: Return From Darkness for the Xbox.

話雖如此，今天我們將財務增加 4000 萬美元，達到 9.1 億美元，並將每股收益預期大幅提高 16 美分，達到 72 美分，創下公司歷史上最高的盈利水平。我們上調預期的原因是我們第三季的超額表現以及我們對第四季預期的上調。對於 04 財年，我們預計製造和分銷成本佔淨收入的 50%，其中包括特許權使用費在內的營運費用為 39%。我們預計利息收入為 0.8%，04 財年稅率應為 35%，並將維持到第四季。我們完全攤薄後的股票數量將為 9,730 萬股。對於第四季度，我們將營收預期上調至 1.25 億美元，並將獲利預期上調至虧損 2 美分。向上修正的原因是目錄預期增加，但定價和 SKU 假設部分抵消了這種影響。在接下來的兩個月裡，我們將發布三款新遊戲，包括面向主機和掌上平台的《陷阱：失落的遠徵》，這是一款視覺上令人興奮的遊戲，適合所有玩家。我們也將在Play Station 2 和Xbox 上發布由 Travis Pastrana 主演的快節奏賽車越野遊戲MTX Mototrax，並且我們還將發布Xbox 版《天誅：從黑暗中歸來》。

Since our last conference call, we made a few small changes to the Q4 line up. We decided not to release MTX on the Game Cube, and we lowered our launch pricing assumptions for Pitfall due to competitive pricing for comparable children's products that are not supported with a major movie release. This is the only console product that we have slated for lower pricing between now and the end of calendar 2004. For the fourth quarter, we expect manufacturing and distribution costs of 56% of net revenues, with operating expenses including royalties of 47%. We project interest income of 1.3% and a basic share count of 90 million. In conclusion, fiscal '04 can be characterized as a year of improving our processes and realigning our project portfolio and resources with the key factors necessary for success in this business. Our record results for the first nine months indicate the dedication and commitment we have as a company to maintaining our leadership position in this market for the long-term.

自從上次電話會議以來，我們對第四季的陣容做了一些小改動。我們決定不在 Game Cube 上發布 MTX，並且由於不支援主要電影發行的同類兒童產品的價格具有競爭力，我們降低了 Pitfall 的發布定價假設。這是我們從現在到 2004 年底期間唯一一款定價較低的遊戲機產品。對於第四季度，我們預計製造和分銷成本佔淨收入的 56%，其中包括特許權使用費的營運費用為 47%。我們預計利息收入為 1.3%，基本股數為 9,000 萬股。總之，2004 財年可以說是我們改善流程、根據業務成功所需的關鍵因素重新調整專案組合和資源的一年。我們前九個月的創紀錄業績表明了我們作為一家公司對長期保持在該市場的領導地位的奉獻和承諾。

Turning now to fiscal '05, we have an incredibly strong slate in development with outstanding potential. We have 11 big propositions slated for release in the fiscal year backed by strong brands, high profile motion picture releases, and high quality development, all of which will be supported by big marketing campaigns. We're still in the process of finalizing our fiscal '05 operating plan and product release calendar and will give you more detailed quarterly guidance on our next call. But as of today, we expect revenues in fiscal '05 to hit a record $1 billion, an increase of 10% over the prior year. We also expect operating margins to exceed 13% and EPS of 90 cents, representing a 25% year-over -ear increase. Our results in fiscal '05 will be driven by focusing our time, energy and capital on 11 big propositions: Spiderman 2, Shrek 2, a sequel to Tony Hawk's Underground, Doom 3, Shark Tale, X-men: Legends, Lemony Snicket, Rome: Total War, Call of Duty: Finest Hour, Vampires, and Peter Molyneux's The Movies. For fiscal '05 we expect manufacturing and distribution costs of 45% of net revenues with operating expenses including royalties of 42%. Our operating expenses will be higher than in fiscal '04 as we have more titles scheduled for release that have licensed IP, in addition to increased sales and marketing expenses. For the full year we project interest income of 1%, a tax rate of 34%, which should be constant through the year, and a fully diluted share count of 102.9 million.

現在轉向 05 財年，我們的發展勢頭非常強勁，潛力巨大。我們計劃在本財年發布 11 個重大提案，這些提案將得到強大品牌、高調電影發行和高品質開發的支持，所有這些都將得到大型行銷活動的支持。我們仍在最終確定 05 財年營運計劃和產品發布日曆，並將在下次電話會議上為您提供更詳細的季度指導。但截至今天，我們預計 05 財年的營收將達到創紀錄的 10 億美元，比前一年成長 10%。我們也預計營業利潤率將超過 13%，每股收益將達到 90 美分，年增 25%。我們05 財年的業績將透過將時間、精力和資本集中在11 個重大項目上來推動：《蜘蛛人2》、《史瑞克2》、《東尼霍克地下城》續集、《毀滅戰士3》 、《鯊魚故事》、《X 戰警：傳奇》、《萊蒙·斯尼基》、 《羅馬：全面戰爭》、《決勝時刻：最美好的時刻》、《吸血鬼》和彼得·莫利紐克斯的電影。對於 05 財年，我們預計製造和分銷成本佔淨收入的 45%，其中包括特許權使用費在內的營運費用為 42%。我們的營運費用將高於 04 財年，因為除了增加的銷售和行銷費用外，我們還計劃發行更多擁有授權 IP 的遊戲。我們預計全年利息收入為 1%，稅率為 34%（全年保持不變），完全稀釋後的股份數量為 1.029 億股。

The first quarter of fiscal '05 will mark one of the most exciting times in our company's history. In Q1, we will launch two of our biggest properties in tandem with two of the most heavily marketed and most highly anticipated movies of all time, Shrek 2 and Spiderman 2. Our titles will benefit greatly from the marketing frenzy that will be created by Sony and DreamWorks. We will kick off the quarter with the release of Shrek 2 on multiple platforms. The game is being developed by our own Luxoflux studio, the developer behind the top selling True Crime: Streets of LA. The highly anticipated Shrek 2 will open in theaters on May 21, and we plan for the game to be on shelves in advance of the movie. The first Shrek movie release in May of 2001 grossed almost a half billion dollars at the box office and quickly game the fastest selling DVD of all time. Given the strong partnership we have with DreamWorks, we expect to take this property to a whole new level. The movie is going to be incredible, and the game already looks fantastic.

05 財年第一季將是我們公司歷史上最令人興奮的時刻之一。在第一季度，我們將推出我們最大的兩部作品，與有史以來行銷最強大、最受期待的兩部電影《史瑞克2》和《蜘蛛人2》同時推出。我們的作品將大大受益於索尼創造的行銷狂潮和夢工廠。我們將以在多個平台上發布《史瑞克 2》來拉開本季的序幕。該遊戲由我們自己的 Luxoflux 工作室開發，該工作室是最暢銷的《真實犯罪：洛杉磯街道》的開發商。備受期待的《史瑞克 2》將於 5 月 21 日在戲院上映，我們計劃在電影上映前讓遊戲上架。2001 年 5 月，第一部怪獸史瑞克電影上映，票房收入接近 5 億美元，並迅速成為有史以來銷售最快的 DVD。鑑於我們與夢工廠的牢固合作關係，我們期望將這家酒店提升到一個全新的水平。這部電影將會令人難以置信，而遊戲看起來也很棒。

Late in Q1, we will we lease Spiderman 2, which we believe will be one of our best selling titles ever. The movie will open in the U.S. in front of the huge July 4th holiday weekend, and the game is planned to be out in advance of the movie. The first Spiderman movie was released in May 2002 and grossed over $800 million at the box office and was the fifth highest grossing movie of all time here in U.S. Our game was the highest rated movie based game ever and quickly became one of the best selling games in Activision's history. We will launch Spiderman 2 with the biggest marketing campaign in our company's history. We have high expectations for this product and are aiming for it to outsell the first Spiderman movie game on a fiscal basis. On a quarterly basis, however, we expect Spiderman 2 revenue to trail Spiderman 1 significantly, and that's due to the later timing of the movie release. Here in the U.S. Spiderman 2 will ship very late in Q1 with the international's shipping in Q2, whereas the first movie game shipped very early in Q1 of that year. In addition to Shrek and Spidy, we will release True Crime: Streets of LA for the PC. The game is a significantly enriched and embellished version of the console game. The release of this game will help broaden awareness and maintain momentum for the franchise.

第一季末，我們將租用《蜘蛛人 2》，我們相信這將是我們有史以來最暢銷的遊戲之一。這部電影將於 7 月 4 日的長週末在美國上映，遊戲也計劃在電影上映前上映。第一部《蜘蛛人》電影於2002 年5 月上映，票房收入超過8 億美元，是美國有史以來票房收入第五高的電影。我們的遊戲是有史以來評價最高的電影遊戲，並且迅速成為最暢銷的遊戲之一在動視的歷史上。我們將推出公司史上最大規模的行銷活動，推出《蜘蛛人 2》。我們對這款產品抱有很高的期望，並希望它的財務銷售超過第一部蜘蛛人電影遊戲。然而，從季度來看，我們預計《蜘蛛人 2》的收入將大幅落後於《蜘蛛人 1》，這是由於電影上映時間較晚。在美國，《蜘蛛人 2》將在第一季很晚出貨，而國際版則在第二季出貨，而第一部電影遊戲則在當年第一季很早就出貨。除了《史瑞克》和《蜘蛛人》之外，我們還將發布 PC 版《真實犯罪：洛杉磯街道》。遊戲是主機遊戲的顯著豐富和修飾的版本。該遊戲的發布將有助於擴大知名度並保持該系列的勢頭。

Our strong Q1 slate is expected to drive revenues of $170 million and earnings per share of 5 cents. We also expect Q1 manufacturing and distribution costs of 41% of net revenues with operating expenses including royalties of 55.5%. We project interest income of 1% and a fully diluted share count of 10-- 100.5 million.

我們強勁的第一季業績預計將帶來 1.7 億美元的營收和 5 美分的每股盈餘。我們也預期第一季的製造和分銷成本佔淨收入的 41%，其中包括特許權使用費在內的營運費用為 55.5%。我們預計利息收入為 1%，完全稀釋後的股份數量為 10-1.005 億股。

Continuing with our movie-related properties, DreamWorks has already started to spend on creating awareness for it's animated film, Shark Tale, which is slated for release this fall. This movie features the largest star-studded line up ever in animated movie history, including Wil Smith, Robert Dinero, Renee Zellweger, Anjelina Jolie, Jack Black and Martin Scorsese. Also in the movie front is Nickelodeon's Lemony Snicket's, a series of unfortunate events, which is slated for a holiday '04 release and will star the perfectly cast of Jim Carey as the scary Count Olaf, aside Meryl Streep and Jude Law. This title has a Harry Potter-type literary flair, and we're already very excited about the game's look and feel.

繼續我們的電影相關產業，夢工廠已經開始投資提高其動畫電影《鯊魚故事》的知名度，該電影定於今年秋天上映。這部電影擁有動畫電影史上最大規模的明星陣容，包括威爾史密斯、羅伯特迪內羅、蕾妮齊薇格、安傑麗娜朱莉、傑克布萊克和馬丁史柯西斯。尼克兒童頻道的《萊蒙尼·斯尼基特》也是電影的主角，講述了一系列不幸的事件，該片定於04 年假期上映，由吉姆·凱瑞完美主演，飾演可怕的奧拉拉夫伯爵，梅莉史翠普和裘德洛也將演出。這個遊戲具有哈利波特式的文學風格，我們已經對遊戲的外觀和感覺感到非常興奮。

In addition to the big potential movie properties, we will release in fiscal '05 we have 3 additional strong consoles titles slated including the sequel to Tony Hawk's Underground. Our developer, Neversoft, was already deep in development on the next version of the franchise even before Tony Hawk's Underground was a confirmed hit. We are impressed with what we have seen already on this new title and expect it to perform at least as well as Tony Hawk's Underground. X-men: Legends will also released on the console and is being developed by our own Raven studios, the team behind the top-selling Lucas Arts Entertainment's Star Wars: Jedi Night series. X-men: Legends is an action role playing game featuring many of the best known characters in the in the Marvel universe. Our final release for the console is Call of Duty: Finest Hour, an extension of the number one hit PC brand. It's not -- it's a completely new game designed to maximize the Call of Duty experience on the console. This game has true break out potential in our opinion, and we see it as one of our biggest opportunities in fiscal '05.

除了潛力巨大的電影作品外，我們還將在 05 財年發布另外 3 款強大的遊戲機遊戲，其中包括《托尼霍克地下城》的續集。甚至在《托尼霍克的地下城》大獲成功之前，我們的開發商 Neversoft 就已經在深入開發該系列的下一個版本。我們對這款新遊戲所看到的內容印象深刻，並期望它的表現至少能與東尼霍克的《地下城》一樣好。《X 戰警：傳奇》也將在主機上發布，由我們自己的 Raven 工作室開發，該工作室是盧卡斯藝術娛樂公司最暢銷的《星際大戰：絕地之夜》系列的幕後團隊。X戰警：傳奇是一款動作角色扮演遊戲，其中包括漫威宇宙中許多最著名的角色。我們為此遊戲機發布的最終版本是《決勝時刻：最精彩的時刻》，它是排名第一的 PC 品牌的延伸。它不是——這是一款全新的遊戲，旨在最大限度地提高控制台上的《決勝時刻》體驗。我們認為這款遊戲具有真正的突破潛力，我們將其視為 05 財年最大的機會之一。

Turning for a minute to Sony PSP, we have two games based on top franchises in development, each of which are expected to be completed in time for the launch of this new device. For the PC, we're expecting to release four high quality properties in fiscal '05 for planning purposes. We're assuming that sometime between the summer and January of 2005, Doom 3 will come out, first on the PC and then on the Xbox. However, as you know, its software decides when the titles will ship, not Activision. We also plan to release Rome: Total War, the sequel to the best selling title Midevil: Total War, and Vampire Blood Lines, a game which blends the genres of RPG and first-person action and is being built using the same technology used to power Half Life 2. Finally, we will release Peter Molyneux's The Movies, a sim-type game where you run your own movie studio. I can tell you as we've gotten farther into the development of that game that it's garnering a lot of internal and external enthusiasm.

談談索尼 PSP，我們正在開發兩款基於頂級系列的遊戲，預計每一款都將在這款新設備發布之前及時完成。對於 PC，出於規劃目的，我們預計將在 05 財年發布四個高品質屬性。我們假設《毀滅戰士 3》將在夏季到 2005 年 1 月期間發布，首先在 PC 上發布，然後在 Xbox 上發布。然而，如您所知，決定遊戲何時發行的是其軟體，而不是動視暴雪。我們也計劃發行《羅馬：全面戰爭》，這是最暢銷遊戲《米德維爾：全面戰爭》的續作，以及《吸血鬼血統》，這是一款融合了角色扮演遊戲和第一人稱動作類型的遊戲，並且正在使用與power Half Life 2。最後，我們將發布 Peter Molyneux's The Movies，一款模擬遊戲，您可以在其中經營自己的電影工作室。我可以告訴你，隨著我們進一步開發這款遊戲，它已經獲得了許多內部和外部的熱情。

So that was a preview of the major properties we have in development for next year. Fiscal '05 is truly shaping up to be an incredibly promising year, and while there are plenty of risks, we are bullish on our prospects as we seek to cross the $1 billion revenue mark and improve our operating margin. In fact, we expect fiscal '05 revenues and earnings to grow at twice their rate of growth in fiscal '04. We look forward to updating you on our progress and outlining our full plan for fiscal '05 on our next conference call.

這是我們明年開發的主要房產的預覽。05 財年確實將是充滿希望的一年，雖然存在許多風險，但我們對前景持樂觀態度，因為我們力求突破 10 億美元的收入大關並提高營業利潤率。事實上，我們預計 05 財年的營收和獲利成長將是 04 財年成長率的兩倍。我們期待在下次電話會議上向您通報我們的最新進展，並概述我們 05 財年的完整計劃。

Thank you for joining us today. And of course operator, we will now open the call up to your questions. Thank you.

感謝您今天加入我們。當然，接線員，我們現在將打開電話詢問您的問題。謝謝。

Thank you. Today's question and answer session will be conducted electronically. If you would like to signal to ask a question, please press the star key followed by the star key followed by the digit one on your touch-tone telephone. If you are using a speaker phone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, that is star one to signal for a question. We'll pause just a moment to give everyone a chance to signal. We'll take our first question from Heath Terry from Credit Suisse First Boston. Please go ahead.

謝謝。今天的問答環節將以電子方式進行。如果您想示意提問，請按按鍵式電話上的星號鍵，然後按星號鍵，然後再按數字 1。如果您使用免持電話，請確保您的靜音功能已關閉，以便您的訊號到達我們的裝置。再次強調，這是一個問題訊號。我們將暫停片刻，讓每個人都有機會發出信號。我們將回答來自瑞士信貸第一波士頓銀行的 Heath Terry 的第一個問題。請繼續。

Thanks. As you probably know, EA when they reported yesterday felt like the 149 price point on opportunity -- on hardware had passed. What would happen to your numbers if Sony and -- your hardware numbers for this year if Sony and Microsoft were to go to 129?

謝謝。正如您可能知道的那樣，EA 在昨天發布報告時感覺 149 的價格點（硬體上的機會）已經過去了。如果索尼和微軟今年的硬體數量達到 129，你們的數字會發生什麼變化？

It would be a positive to the assumptions that we've used to build our plan for next year. But it's hard to quantify. It would depend on timing and those sorts of things, but it's not something we're counting on.

這對我們用來製定明年計劃的假設是正面的。但很難量化。這取決於時間和諸如此類的事情，但這不是我們所指望的。

Okay. Of the 11 titles that you cited as being the key franchises for fiscal '05, what percentage of revenue do you anticipate that those are going to represent?

好的。在您提到的 05 財年主要特許經營權的 11 款遊戲中，您預計這些遊戲將佔收入的百分比是多少？

The vast majority.

絕大多數。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

We'll take our next question from Mike Wallace from UBS. Please go ahead.

我們將回答瑞銀集團麥克華萊士的下一個問題。請繼續。

Hi. Couple questions. First, the Spiderman 2 release, is that going to go out in the U.S. the last week of June and then some going to go out in early July? Is that the best way to read that?

你好。幾個問題。首先，《蜘蛛人2》的上映，是否會在六月的最後一周在美國上映，然後有一些會在七月初上映？這是閱讀該內容的最佳方式嗎？

Exactly. The movie launches on July 2, and we will be basically shipping the launch volume out to go, be on the shelves by July 2, but there's no repeat business that. Will all happen in the second quarter and after that.

確切地。這部電影將於 7 月 2 日上映，我們基本上會將首發捲髮貨，在 7 月 2 日之前上架，但沒有重複業務。一切都將在第二季及之後發生。

When does the movie launch overseas, Ron?

羅恩，這部電影什麼時候在海外上映？

In the summer timeframe. That means that we will be shipping in the second quarter in all the European territories.

在夏季時間範圍內。這意味著我們將在第二季度在所有歐洲地區發貨。

Okay. And Doom 3, I presume PC sometime in the fiscal year. Are you assuming the Xbox is going to be in fiscal '05 also? Is that shortly after the PC?

好的。至於《毀滅戰士 3》，我認為 PC 版會在本財年的某個時間點推出。您是否認為 Xbox 也將在 05 財年上市？是在PC之後不久嗎？

Yes. That's a planning assumption that we're making. I want to always remind everyone that we don't control that timing, but that's the planning assumption. That's in our plan for next year.

是的。這是我們正在做出的計劃假設。我想時時提醒大家，我們無法控制這個時間，但這是計畫假設。這是我們明年的計劃。

Okay. And regarding the operating margins, how high do you think you can get those? I assume, you know, distribution will continue to drop as a percentage total, you know, sounds like publishing's clicking, so are you thinking get these up in the high teens?

好的。關於營業利益率，您認為可以達到多高？我認為，你知道，發行量所佔的百分比將繼續下降，你知道，聽起來就像出版業的點擊，所以你是否考慮將這些比例提高到十幾歲？

I -- you know, we have a major competitor that's well into the 20s, so, you know, long-term that's definitely something we will try to accomplish. You know, we're trying to focus on the upcoming year and driving it over 13%. You know, in fiscal '01, that's a while ago, we were at 6%, but you can tell we've grown steadily since then and we're trying to continue that growth path. It's encouraging to see a leading competitor with such high margins. That gives us a lot to go after still.

我——你知道，我們有一個 20 多歲的主要競爭對手，所以，你知道，從長遠來看，這絕對是我們會努力實現的目標。你知道，我們正努力專注於來年並將其推動超過 13%。你知道，在不久前的 01 財年，我們的成長率為 6%，但你可以看出，從那時起我們一直在穩步增長，並且我們正在努力繼續這種成長道路。看到領先的競爭對手擁有如此高的利潤率，真是令人鼓舞。這讓我們還有很多事情要做。

Okay, and just one more question. True Crime, should we assume a sequel in fiscal '06? And I know it's way too early to talk about fiscal '06. And there's a couple of Marvel movies, are those still coming out in fiscal '06?

好的，還有一個問題。《真實犯罪》，我們該假設 06 財年會有續集嗎？我知道現在談論 06 財年還為時過早。還有幾部漫威電影，06 財年還會上映嗎？

Yeah, those are tentatively slated for fiscal '06. The goal is obviously to release the two Marvel titles that you're referring to date and date with the movie. As far as the sequel with True Crime, we're obviously working on that, but we're not yet at a point that we want to be specific about timing.

是的，這些暫定在 06 財年進行。顯然，我們的目標是發行你提到的兩部漫威電影，並與電影一起上映。至於《真實犯罪》的續集，我們顯然正在努力，但我們還沒有到要具體確定時間的地步。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

We'll go next to Shawn Milne from SoundView Technology. Please go ahead.

接下來我們將邀請來自 SoundView Technology 的 Shawn Milne。請繼續。

Thanks. Ron, I want to follow up on the operating margin for a second. It looks like if I factor in or take out the charges for the year, you would be at close to 13% for fiscal '04. So is there something in the fiscal '05, is there a ramp-up in R&D and marketing, or are we being presented with a model that's got, you know, fully cost loaded and perhaps the revenues could get better than a billion?

謝謝。羅恩，我想跟進一下營業利益率。看起來如果我考慮或剔除今年的費用，04 財年的費用將接近 13%。那麼，05 財年是否有一些事情，研發和行銷是否有所增加，或者我們是否會看到一種完全成本負載的模式，也許收入可能會超過 10 億美元？

The model that we gave you is the model we gave you, Shawn, and it's driven, as you see, by a significant operating margin improvement year over year. There are a lot of things that move around between the years. Yes, you're right, this year we had kind of an unusual event in the strategic project realignment last quarter. But we really built a plan from the ground up, title by title, country by country. So the net gain that you're seeing, I believe, is a real gain and reflects progress on the operating margin front. Yes, there are some things to change. We mentioned in call, for example, that our marketing investments next year will be higher because we're releasing so many big titles, but that's being offset by gross margin improvement because we are skewing more of the business towards the publishing side.

我們給你的模型就是我們給你的模型，肖恩，正如你所看到的，它是由營業利潤率逐年顯著提高所驅動的。歲月之間有很多東西在移動。是的，你是對的，今年我們在上個季度的策略性專案調整中發生了一件不尋常的事件。但我們確實從頭開始製定了一個計劃，逐個標題、逐個國家。因此，我相信，您看到的淨收益是真正的收益，反映了營業利潤率的進展。是的，有些事情需要改變。例如，我們在電話會議中提到，明年我們的行銷投資將會更高，因為我們將發佈如此多的大作品，但這被毛利率的改善所抵消，因為我們將更多的業務轉向出版方面。

Okay. And just a couple housekeeping questions, what was the catalog% in the quarter? I'm not sure if you gave that. What was thugs percentage in the quarter? Thanks a lot.

好的。還有幾個內務問題，本季的目錄百分比是多少？我不確定你是否給了那個。該季度暴徒的比例是多少？多謝。

What was the second part?

第二部分是什麼？

Tony Hawk Underground percent?

托尼霍克地下百分比？

Yeah. 14% was the percentage for the catalog in the quarter. That's consolidated. THug was about 23, 24% on the quarter.

是的。14% 是本季目錄的百分比。這樣就統一了THug 約為 23，本季為 24%。

Thanks a lot. Great quarter.

多謝。很棒的季度。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next we'll go to Tony Gikas from Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

接下來我們請聽聽 Piper Jaffray 的 Tony Gikas。請繼續。

Good afternoon, guys. Congratulations on a great quarter. Couple questions for you here. Could you quickly review for us what Spiderman 1 did in the first year of the launch in terms of the worldwide unit shipments? And then on the -- currently -- development --

下午好，夥計們。恭喜您度過了一個美好的季度。這裡有幾個問題想問你。您能否快速為我們回顧一下《蜘蛛人1》上市第一年的全球銷售表現？然後關於目前的發展

Tony, you're cutting out.

東尼，你要退出了。

Can you hear me now?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Can you hear me now?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Okay. The first part of the question was could you just review for us again real quickly on the Spiderman, how many units the product shipped in the first calendar year for Spiderman 1. Second part of the question was the Sony PSP, what stage are you at right now with development tips from Sony? And the third question, just sort of follow up on the product development systems. Yesterday E A indicated that they are anticipating R&D to start ramping up later this year as they get ready for the new technologies.

好的。問題的第一部分是您能否快速為我們再次回顧《蜘蛛人》，該產品在《蜘蛛人1》的第一個日曆年出貨了多少台。問題的第二部分是索尼PSP，您處於哪個階段現在有索尼的開發技巧嗎？第三個問題，只是產品開發系統的跟進。昨天，EA 表示，他們預計今年稍晚將開始加強研發力度，為新技術做好準備。

Yeah. Tony, we had -- about the first question, Spiderman 1, how did it do? We would like to not get too specific on our titles, but let me answer this way and say it did well ahead of 3 million units worldwide. Secondly, on the PSP, we're in the early stages. We have software emulators. There are no development kits out there that I'm aware of. Those should be coming out sometime I would say between the spring and early summer. But the good news is that we feel we're well on track to hit the launch time of the platform, and we're confident so far that we can achieve that. Your question about PD expenses, of course we are also doing early work on the next generation hardware. It is encouraging, I want to mention, that the first parties are letting us know that they intend to mitigate significant cost increases from this current generation to the next generation by making a tools, libraries, and other helpful things available to us. So we are not really at this point expecting to see the sort of order of magnitude cost increase that we saw when we transitioned from the Play Station 1 to Play Station 2. Obviously a lot is still to be learned, but that's encouraging to us. Also, I want to point out that in this year's PD line, we do have the effect of this project realignment which hit the PD line for about 21 million dollars. So that in effect makes the year-over-year comp favorable in that next year we will not have that and it can sort of cover the increased PD costs that come from working on new platforms.

是的。東尼，我們 - 關於第一個問題，《蜘蛛人 1》表現如何？我們不想對我們的遊戲過於具體，但讓我這樣回答，並說它的銷量遠遠領先全球 300 萬台。其次，在 PSP 上，我們還處於早期階段。我們有軟體模擬器。據我所知，還沒有開發套件。我想說，這些應該會在春季和初夏之間的某個時候發布。但好消息是，我們認為我們正在順利實現該平台的發佈時間，並且到目前為止我們有信心實現這一目標。你問的關於PD費用的問題，當然我們也在做下一代硬體的早期工作。我想提到的是，令人鼓舞的是，第一方讓我們知道，他們打算透過向我們提供工具、函式庫和其他有用的東西來減輕從當前世代到下一代的顯著成本增加。因此，我們目前並不真正期望看到從Play Station 1 過渡到Play Station 2 時看到的那種數量級的成本增加。顯然，還有很多東西需要學習，但這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。另外，我想指出的是，在今年的PD線中，我們確實有這個項目調整的效果，達到了約2100萬美元的PD線。因此，這實際上使得明年的同比比較有利，我們將不會再有這種情況，並且它可以在某種程度上彌補因在新平台上工作而增加的 PD 成本。

Okay. Thanks, guys.

好的。多謝你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Next we'll go to David Farina from William Blair. Please go ahead.

接下來我們請聽聽威廉布萊爾的大衛法裡納。請繼續。

Good afternoon. You know, you guys are historically very conservative in your forecasting. When you look at a product like Spiderman, which has a fair amount of movie risk being a sequel and being, you know, while a great first movie, you-- it could potentially be one of those Matrix type of things. Why push the forecast, you know, to be greater than what was one of your most successful products ever? What do you see in the movie, or what do you see in the product that makes you guys who generally have a conservative reputation feel comfortable making that kind of forecast?

午安.你知道，你們的預測歷來都非常保守。當你看到像《蜘蛛人》這樣的產品時，它有相當大的電影風險成為續集，而且，你知道，雖然是一部很棒的第一部電影，但它可能是《駭客任務》類型的作品之一。你知道，為什麼要把預測推得比你有史以來最成功的產品之一還要高呢？您在電影中看到了什麼，或者您在產品中看到了什麼，讓您們這些通常享有保守聲譽的人感到放心地做出這種預測？

One thing I would say about Spiderman that's different than just about any other franchise is that it's lived for a very long time very successfully both as a video game and comic book and a variety of other merchandise categories, and so we generally have just a high level of confidence in Spiderman as a property. And, you know, I think ,secondly, the early indications that we have, the folks at Sony and the studio and March value, are very confident in the future film. Having said that, you know, we risk adjust our slate, and I think we feel that we've got an appropriate planning number relative to the dramatic increase in the size of the installed base from the time that we last had a Spiderman release against a motion picture.

關於《蜘蛛人》，我想說的一點是，它與任何其他特許經營權不同，它作為電子遊戲、漫畫書和各種其他商品類別，已經存在了很長一段時間，非常成功，所以我們通常只有很高的銷售量。對蜘蛛人作為財產的信心程度。而且，你知道，我認為，其次，我們的早期跡象，索尼和工作室的人員以及三月的價值，對未來的電影非常有信心。話雖如此，你知道，我們冒著調整我們的名單的風險，而且我認為我們覺得我們已經有了一個適當的規劃數字，相對於我們上次發布《蜘蛛俠》以來安裝基礎規模的急劇增加一部影片。

Fair enough, but would you agree that probably the biggest risk in next year's plan would be Spiderman if something were to happen? Or do you feel that confident?

很公平，但是如果發生什麼事，明年計劃中最大的風險可能是蜘蛛俠，你是否同意？或者說你有那麼有自信嗎？

It's one of the bigger titles in our plan, so yeah, you could say, but I think about all the major titles. If Tony Hawk's Underground sequel doesn't happen that, would be a risk as well. So all the major titles represent inherently some risk, but I would say it's mitigated by the fact that this is a sequel. We have seen sequels in the past in this sort of way do well. We have developed a product before. This is based on the experience there. We have a great deal of retailer interest. Much more so than Spiderman 1 movie was launched. Now people are expecting this to be a big event. They are fully supporting to, so there are definitely some strong reasons to be confident here.

這是我們計劃中較大的遊戲之一，所以是的，你可以說，但我考慮了所有主要遊戲。如果東尼霍克的《地下城》續集沒有實現這一點，那也將是一個風險。因此，所有主要遊戲本質上都存在一定的風險，但我想說，這是續集，這一事實減輕了風險。我們過去已經看到續集以這種方式取得了很好的成績。我們之前開發過一個產品。這是根據那裡的經驗得出的。我們有很大的零售商興趣。比《蜘蛛人1》電影上映還要多得多。現在人們期待這將是一件大事。他們完全支持，所以肯定有一些充分的理由對此充滿信心。

One last Spiderman question. Is the game materially different? I mean obviously the movie can be different, but, you know, have you made a lot of changes so it's a unique, different playing experience as well?

最後一個蜘蛛人問題。遊戲有本質上的不同嗎？我的意思是，顯然這部電影可能會有所不同，但是，你知道嗎，你做了很多改變，所以這也是一種獨特的、不同的遊戲體驗嗎？

The game is a blast. I'll tell you why. It's sort of a wide open New York City arena where you can go around and have a lot of fun swinging from building to building and bridge to bridge and deal with all kinds of situations that you run into in a city like New York. So people here love the game, think that the wide open design is going to be a blast for all the Spiderman fans to play.

這場比賽真是一場爆炸。我會告訴你原因。這是一個寬敞的紐約市競技場，您可以在其中四處走動，在建築物之間、橋樑之間搖擺，並處理您在紐約這樣的城市遇到的各種情況。所以這裡的人們喜歡這個遊戲，認為開放的設計會讓所有蜘蛛人粉絲玩起來很開心。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Next we'll go to Ann Cordon from B. Riley and Company. Please go ahead.

接下來我們將拜訪 B. Riley and Company 的 Ann Cordon。請繼續。

Thanks. What features are added to the next Tony Hawk's Underground that you feel will kind of make it as compelling a sequel to this --, last year's Tony Hawk's Underground obviously was relative to Tony Hawk 4?

謝謝。您認為下一部《托尼霍克地下城》中添加了哪些功能，使其成為這款遊戲引人注目的續集——去年的《托尼霍克地下城》顯然與《托尼霍克 4》有關？

We're going to keep that a secret. We're going to show you the first tidbit at that at E3, but for now, mum is the word on that. Sorry.

我們會保守秘密。我們將在 E3 上向您展示第一個花絮，但現在由媽媽來負責。對不起。

Okay. What are your catalog expectations for Q4 as far as a percentage of sales from catalog?

好的。您對第四季目錄銷售額的預期是多少？

Should be about a third of our consolidated net revenues.

應該占我們合併淨收入的三分之一左右。

Okay. And the total number of products currently in development?

好的。目前正在開發的產品總數是多少？

Roughly 120.

大約120。

All right.

好的。

One thing I will say about Tony Hawk Underground, the sequel, we spent a lot of time with our consumers, our audiences, really doing a lot of feature testing to make determinations as to what we were going to incorporate and THug and how the storyline would evolve and what changes to make in the game. And we obviously continue to use very extensive consumer research to identify what are the things we think will be appealing to consumers for this next generation of product.

關於《托尼霍克地下》的續集，我要說的一件事是，我們花了很多時間與我們的消費者、我們的觀眾一起，確實做了很多功能測試，以確定我們將要融入什麼內容、暴徒以及故事情節。將會演變以及遊戲中需要做出哪些改變。顯然，我們將繼續使用非常廣泛的消費者研究來確定我們認為下一代產品對消費者有吸引力的東西。

Got it. I guess two last quick ones. What are the total number of SKUs for '05? And what was the cash spent for software development and IP during the third quarter?

知道了。我想最後兩個很快。05 年的 SKU 總數是多少？第三季軟體開發和智慧財產權的現金支出是多少？

Okay. The number of SKUs in development for '05 is 51. And the question was in the quarter how much money --

好的。'05 正在開發的 SKU 數量為 51。問題是這個季度要多少錢——

How much cash was spent on software development and IP?

在軟體開發和IP上花了多少現金？

Let's see. Do you have that, Bill? It's $35 million. 35.

讓我們來看看。比爾，你有嗎？這是 3500 萬美元。35.

All right. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

You bet. Thank you.

你打賭。謝謝。

Next we'll go to Karen Priscilla from Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.

接下來我們請來美林證券的凱倫‧普里西拉 (Karen Priscilla)。請繼續。

Hi. Good afternoon. It's very nice of you to give us an outlook into '05. No one is seeming to do that yet.

你好。午安.非常感謝您為我們介紹了 05 年的展望。似乎還沒有人這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As we look forward in the distribution business, I see that, you know, I understand that it's going to be declining as a percent of your total business. Do you think it's going to be down on a year-over-year basis in '05?

當我們展望分銷業務時，我發現它佔總業務的百分比將會下降。您認為05年會較去年同期下降嗎？

It probably will be down slightly. It's a business that has that sort of, you know, cycle. We're towards the end of the cycle, it's based in the UK, it tends to drop off a bit. So we see that. It's always been a profitable business, and we expect it to continue to be that.

可能會略有下降。你知道，這是一個有這種循環的行業。我們正接近週期的尾聲，它的總部位於英國，它往往會下降。所以我們看到了這一點。它一直是一項有利可圖的業務，我們預計它會繼續如此。

Okay. Then just one more quick question. As you look at the PSP and the Nintendo's new handheld businesses, as you start thinking about software development, do you think -- are you approaching it more as, you know, just extending the current titles that you have and just port them to the new products, or are you really thinking about it as a new, a completely new platform?

好的。然後還有一個簡單的問題。當你看到 PSP 和任天堂的新掌上電腦業務時，當你開始考慮軟體開發時，你是否認為——你是否更接近它，​​你知道，只是擴展你現有的遊戲並將它們移植到新產品，或者您真的將其視為一個新的、全新的平台嗎？

We're taking advantage of the investments in technology that we have, but we're really trying to come up with creative new propositions under those existing franchises.

我們正在利用我們現有的技術投資，但我們確實在努力在現有的特許經營權下提出創造性的新主張。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll go next to Harlan Pedia from Southwest Securities. Please go ahead.

接下來我們將請西南證券公司的哈蘭‧佩迪亞 (Harlan Pedia)。請繼續。

Good afternoon, guys, and congratulations.

下午好，夥計們，恭喜你。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Couple of questions here. First, the market of growth forecast for your addressable market, can you break that down between the U.S. and Europe? I'm assuming that Europe is always going to be faster, so can you first of all provide a break down for software growth? And also if you have any preliminary numbers on where you think the hardware install base ended up in Europe and where you think it's going for, going to be in '04? And then I have a quick follow-up.

這裡有幾個問題。首先，您的目標市場的成長預測，您能在美國和歐洲之間進行細分嗎？我假設歐洲總是會更快，所以您能先提供軟體成長的細分嗎？另外，如果您有關於您認為硬體安裝基地最終在歐洲的位置以及您認為其未來走向的任何初步數據，那麼 04 年會出現在哪裡？然後我會進行快速跟進。

All right. The software market, we, we would like to stick with our traditional definition. We think that probably Europe will be a little ahead of North America, but I prefer not to get more specific than that. On the hardware side in Europe, we, we have never really gotten into the hardware in Europe, so it will be starting something new. Let us think about that for the next call. As I said, we've never done that, and I need to kind of visit to make sure that the data here is something we want to give out. As you know, we don't really have the equivalent source of quality information that we have here in North America. So it's always a little bit difficult to get into the European numbers.

好的。對於軟體市場，我們，我們想堅持我們的傳統定義。我們認為歐洲可能會領先北美一點，但我不想透露得更具體。在歐洲的硬體方面，我們從未真正涉足歐洲的硬件，因此它將開始一些新的事情。讓我們在下次通話時考慮一下。正如我所說，我們從未這樣做過，我需要進行存取以確保這裡的數據是我們想要提供的數據。如您所知，我們實際上沒有與北美同等的優質資訊來源。所以想要了解歐洲的數據總是有點困難。

Got it. And I guess software pricing-wise, what is the assumption based into your forecast? How much of a decline are you thinking?

知道了。我想在軟體定價方面，您的預測是基於什麼假設？您認為下降了多少？

Well, it's really relevant to talk about software pricing on a title-by-title basis, and as we indicated, we think we have triple A titles that we can launch through the holiday season at the 49.99 price point on the console side of the business. And that's really our focus, is to realize that. We, of course, expect the average price point in the market on the console side to continue to decline, and that happens of course as there is more catalog business and as secondary titles get introduced at lower price points. But our focus is on our own line-up and we think we can justify the 49.99 price point.

嗯，逐個遊戲地討論軟體定價確實很重要，正如我們所指出的，我們認為我們擁有 3A 遊戲，我們可以在假期期間以 49.99 的價格點在主機端推出這些遊戲。商業。這確實是我們的重點，就是意識到這一點。當然，我們預計遊戲機市場的平均價格點將繼續下降，當然會發生，因為有更多的目錄業務以及二級遊戲以較低的價格推出。但我們的重點是我們自己的產品線，我們認為 49.99 的價格點是合理的。

But obviously the forecast had some pricing declines in it, right?

但顯然預測中價格有下降，對嗎？

If you are talking about the average sort of --

如果你談論的是平均水平——

For the industry.

對於業界來說。

Yeah, the industry, we have about a 7 or 8% decline built in for the average software in the industry.

是的，這個行業，我們認為該行業內的平均軟體下降了大約 7% 或 8%。

Okay. Just two quick follow-ups, was there any buy back during the quarter?

好的。只是兩次快速跟進，本季有回購嗎？

There was a very small amount, 100,000 shares at like 11.83.

數量非常少，100,000股，價格大概是11.83。

And then lastly, on the reserves, I know it was down about $8 million. As a percentage, I think you said 22%. What was the number for last year?

最後，在準備金方面，我知道減少了約 800 萬美元。作為百分比，我想你說的是 22%。去年的數字是多少？

It was 32 or 33%. And the perspective, in the absolute, in the about 77 million, this year 69. The big difference year over year is our channel inventory position. We came out of the quarter with low inventories, significantly lower than last year, but when you look inside of that inventory, you see product that has a very high probability of selling through at the current pricing. Of course I'm talking about Tony Hawk's Underground, True Crime and Call of Duty. We feel very comfortable with this reserve level.

是 32% 或 33%。從絕對數量來看，今年約為 7,700 萬，今年為 69。年比最大的差異是我們的通路庫存狀況。本季我們的庫存很低，明顯低於去年，但當你查看庫存內部時，你會發現產品很有可能以當前價格售出。當然，我說的是東尼霍克的《地下城》、《真實犯罪》和《決勝時刻》。我們對這個儲備水準感到非常滿意。

Call of Duty, can you give us a percentage on that? What is that as a percentage of your revenue this quarter?

《決勝時刻》，您能給我們一個百分比嗎？這佔您本季收入的百分比是多少？

We decided not to give that out.

我們決定不透露出來。

Okay. Thanks, guys, and congratulations.

好的。謝謝你們，恭喜你們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll go next to Stewart Halpern from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

接下來我們將邀請加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部門的Stewart Halpern。請繼續。

Thanks. Two questions. First, with regard to the first quarter, looking at the product line-up, it looks materially stronger than the product that you had in last year's first quarter, yet the guidance suggests, you know, sort of reasonable, but modest growth year over year. Is there something going on perhaps on the distribution side that's kind of offsetting the, you know, the stronger publishing line-up, or is my characterization of the shrink of the publishing line something that you wouldn't necessarily agree with? Secondly, just on your highlighted focus on increasing the predict iblt of the business, could you comment on what percentage of your estimated revenues you expect to come from sequels or product extensions as some of your peers have done? Thanks.

謝謝。兩個問題。首先，就第一季而言，從產品陣容來看，它看起來比去年第一季的產品要強大得多，但指導表明，你知道，同比增長有點合理，但適度增長年。發行方面是否發生了一些事情，抵消了更強大的出版陣容，或者我對出版陣容縮減的描述是你不一定同意的？其次，就您強調的提高業務預測收入而言，您能否像您的一些同行一樣評論一下您預計來自續集或產品擴展的預計收入的百分比是多少？謝謝。

On the first part of the call you must have missed the first part of our call, but what we said is that Spiderman was going to go out very late in the quarter. I think that was-- if that's what you're referring to as far as the first quarter, what's the difference from the last time we released the Spiderman product.

在電話的第一部分，你一定錯過了我們電話的第一部分，但我們所說的是蜘蛛人將在本季度很晚的時候出去。我認為，如果這就是您所指的第一季度，那麼與我們上次發布蜘蛛人產品時有何不同。

No, it wasn't the last time Spiderman was released. It's against last year's first quarter where you had Wolverine's Revenge, and you had Wolfinstein and I don't think really too much else. It sounds like Spiderman 2, Shrek 2, Total Crime PC would be a stronger publishing line-up.

不，這不是《蜘蛛人》最後一次上映。這是與去年第一季的對比，當時你有《金鋼狼的復仇》，還有《沃爾芬斯坦》，我不認為還有太多其他的。聽起來《蜘蛛人 2》、《史瑞克 2》和《全面犯罪》PC 版將會是更強大的發行陣容。

Yeah, again, I think the primary release in the quarter other than Shrek is that Spiderman will be very late in the quarter. And also, we did have a very strong international release on X-men.

是的，我再說一遍，我認為除了怪物史萊克之外，本季的主要發佈內容是《蜘蛛人》將在本季稍後發布。而且，我們確實在國際上發行了非常強大的《X 戰警》。

Okay.

好的。

It ended up not having a particularly long life, but it had a really strong watch.

它的壽命雖然不是特別長，但它的手錶非常堅固。

Gotcha. Okay. Then the second part of the question about the percentage of revenues you would expect to come from sequel product?

明白了。好的。那麼問題的第二部分是關於您期望來自續集產品的收入百分比？

We have -- we don't have it in front of us, Stewart, but I would say that all-- a lot of the major propositions are versions of brands and properties that we have, you know, we have done business in already. It's, you know, not a lot of new software. A few new titles, but a lot of versions or iterations of past products. So I would say the percentage is going to be fairly high.

我們有——我們沒有擺在我們面前，斯圖爾特，但我想說的是——很多主要主張都是我們擁有的品牌和財產的版本，你知道，我們已經在其中開展了業務。你知道，這並不是很多新軟體。一些新遊戲，但有許多過去產品的版本或迭代。所以我想說這個百分比會相當高。

Okay. High meaning two-thirds, three quarters range?

好的。高指三分之二、四分之三範圍？

In our next call we could give you more visibility on what percentage based on seequals.

在我們的下一次通話中，我們可以讓您更清楚地了解基於 seequals 的百分比。

Okay. That would be helpful. Thanks.

好的。那會有幫助的。謝謝。

We'll go next to Edward Williams from Gerard Klauer Mattison & Company.

接下來我們將邀請傑拉德·克勞爾·馬蒂森公司 (Gerard Klauer Mattison & Company) 的愛德華·威廉斯 (Edward Williams)。

Just a couple questions for you. Ron, you have highlighted 11 games for fiscal '05. How many SKUs will those 11 games represent?

只是想問你幾個問題。Ron，您重點介紹了 05 財年的 11 場比賽。這 11 款遊戲代表多少個 SKU？

51.

51.

Okay.

好的。

That includes a couple of PSP titles.

其中包括幾個 PSP 遊戲。

Those 11 games are effectively the 51 SKUs that you spoke about?

這 11 款遊戲其實就是您所說的 51 款 SKU？

Yeah.

是的。

You also indicated the 120 products, I think you said, in development. How many games do they represent?

您還指出了 120 種產品，我想您說過，正在開發中。他們代表了多少場比賽？

I would -- I would ball park that as saying between 30 and 40.

我會——我會說 30 到 40 之間。

Okay, and then on continuing with kind of the product line-up, or product development, are you working with many external studios at this point, or with the exception of ID, are most of these games for next year developed internally?

好的，然後繼續進行產品陣容或產品開發，您目前是否與許多外部工作室合作，或者除了 ID 之外，明年的大多數遊戲都是內部開發的？

No, there is some externally developed product in there, so it's a mix. What we'll do when we get into next year's plan in more detail at the next call, we'll get a bit more specific on that.

不，那裡有一些外部開發的產品，所以它是一個混合體。當我們在下次電話會議上更詳細地討論明年的計劃時，我們會做什麼，我們會對此進行更具體的說明。

Okay. Can you comment just on your basic strategy with regards to external or what the extent of your revenues that you're thinking of or SKUs, however you want to look at it, percent of SKUs or revenues that you think will come from internal studios versus external juud-- studios?

好的。您能否僅評論一下您在外部方面的基本策略，或者您所考慮的收入或 SKU 的程度，無論您如何看待它，您認為來自內部工作室的 SKU 或收入的百分比是多少？外部juud——工作室？

The bulk of the revenue over time are going to come from internal studios. Our internal studios have gotten much larger, and the strategy generally has been to take the profession, predictable franchises and marry them to internal resources. So I would say, again, in the next call we'll probably be able to give you a little bit better specificity, but generally speaking, the bulk of the revenues will come from our own internal studios.

隨著時間的推移，大部分收入將來自內部工作室。我們的內部工作室已經變得更大，策略通常是採用專業、可預測的特許經營權並將它們與內部資源結合。所以我想說，在下一次電話會議中，我們可能能夠為您提供更好的具體信息，但一般來說，大部分收入將來自我們自己的內部工作室。

Okay. The final one is head count and product development at this point.

好的。此時最後一項是人員統計和產品開發。

Total head count for the company is about 1,300. I think about 700 in the studio.

公司總員工人數約 1,300 人。我認為工作室裡大約有700人。

Great. Thank you very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We'll go next to John Taylor from Arcadia. Please go ahead.

接下來我們將前往來自阿卡迪亞的約翰泰勒。請繼續。

Hi. I got a couple of questions, too. On the PSP for planning purposes, can you give us a sense of what you think the business model's going to look like in terms of royalty and margin and that sort of thing, and what average selling price you're assuming? I got a couple of questions after that, too.

你好。我也有幾個問題。關於 PSP 的規劃目的，您能否讓我們了解一下您認為商業模式在特許權使用費和利潤等方面會是什麼樣子，以及您假設的平均售價是多少？之後我也有幾個問題。

Yeah. We were awaiting, as you know, information from Sony on that. So, you know, I can give you what we think, but that's strictly that -- what we think.

是的。如您所知，我們正在等待索尼的相關資訊。所以，你知道，我可以告訴你我們的想法，但這就是我們的想法。

That's fine.

沒關係。

We think that the hardware will be priced somewhere between $149 and $249, and we think that the software is likely to be 39.99 at launch and that's -- and we mentioned the install base assumption of about a million units.

我們認為硬體的價格將在 149 美元到 249 美元之間，我們認為軟體發佈時的價格可能是 39.99 美元，我們提到了大約 100 萬台的安裝基數假設。

So the gross margin after royalty to the owner is going to be --

因此，扣除所有者特許權使用費後的毛利率將是—

No.

不。

-- generally similar to PS2?

——大體類似PS2？

Don't know yet. Don't know.

還不知道。不知道。

Do you have a place keeper or a range in your own heads?

您自己的腦中是否有位置維持器或範圍？

Yeah, but I prefer not to discuss that detail now.

是的，但我現在不想討論這個細節。

Okay. And then let me see. Was --

好的。然後讓我看看。曾是 -

We've been trying to get Sony to eliminate royalties.

我們一直在努力讓索尼取消版稅。

Good idea. You mentioned the revenue concentration in Tony and in catalog. Did you mention a number in True Crime? I think you might have and I missed that one.

好主意。您提到了托尼和目錄中的收入集中。你在《真實犯罪》中提到一個數字嗎？我想你可能有，但我錯過了。

No, we didn't. But I can tell you it's in the low 20's.

不，我們沒有。但我可以告訴你，這個數字在 20 左右。

Okay. You mentioned a million dollar number, some number of millions of dollars.

好的。你提到了一百萬美元，一些數百萬美元。

100 million is what we said.

1億是我們說的。

How many?

多少？

It represented $100 million of revenue in the quarter.

它代表了該季度 1 億美元的收入。

Okay. That's wholesale revenue?

好的。這就是批發收入嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

All right. And then the concentration of sales in December, did it change very much from this quarter to last quarter? I mean same quarter last year.

好的。那麼12月的銷售集中度，這個季度和上季變化大嗎？我的意思是去年同一季度。

What's your question?

你有什麼問題？

The December concentration of revenue in the month of December, did it change very much from December of '02?

12月份的收入集中度，與02年12月份相比變化大嗎？

So the amount of revenues we did in the month of December?

那我們 12 月份的收入是多少？

Yeah. As compared to a year ago?

是的。與一年前相比？

Yeah, it did. It did. We understand. Yeah, no. December was a surprise in that it really in the last few weeks was a lot stronger than last year. While retailers did show some of the same behavior that we saw last year, in that they focused on the big propositions and the best selling titles, we were fortunate to have three of the best selling titles, so we saw them really reorder aggressively all the way to the end of the year. And that we did not see last year.

是的，確實如此。它做了。我們明白。是的，不。十二月是一個驚喜，因為它在過去幾週確實比去年強得多。雖然零售商確實表現出了我們去年看到的一些相同行為，即他們專注於大主張和最暢銷的遊戲，但我們很幸運擁有三款最暢銷的遊戲，因此我們看到他們確實積極地重新訂購了所有產品到年底。這是我們去年沒有看到的。

Yeah. Okay. Great. Then last question, I'm struck by your comment about the cross containment of, on the development side for the next generation. Is there anything you can kind of expand upon? Do you get the sense that the format guys are going to basically provide you with tools, stations, you know, people? How's it going to work such that the development costs for the next set of platforms doesn't go up?

是的。好的。偉大的。最後一個問題，我對你關於下一代發展方面的交叉遏制的評論感到震驚。有什麼可以擴充的嗎？你是否感覺到格式人員基本上會提供你工具、電台、人員？如何才能確保下一組平台的開發成本不會增加？

As Ron pointed out, yes, we've gotten very positive indications from the hardware manufacturers that they intend to provide what we would consider stronger tools than the prior generation. To Ron's point, a lot of what we've developed in terms of our own internal technologies will lend themselves better, and you really -- factoring out the changes to the online components of the next generation components of hardware, you're talking increased polygon counts, better special effects, more texture mapping, but things that are not as big a shift as we saw from PS1 to PS2. The second thing I would say is we can't really talk about a single component of the operating model without talking about the rest of the operating model. And so as we get into the guidance for next year, I think we'll be able to share with you a little bit more specificity about the overall operating model.

正如羅恩所指出的那樣，是的，我們從硬體製造商那裡得到了非常積極的跡象，他們打算提供我們認為比上一代更強大的工具。就羅恩的觀點而言，我們在自己的內部技術方面開發的許多內容將更好地發揮作用，而且您真的 - 考慮到下一代硬體組件的在線組件的變化，您正在談論增加多邊形數量、更好的特效、更多的紋理映射，但這些變化並不像我們從PS1 到PS2 看到的那麼大。我要說的第二件事是，如果不討論營運模型的其餘部分，我們就無法真正談論營運模型的單一組成部分。因此，當我們進入明年的指導時，我認為我們將能夠與您分享更多有關整體營運模式的具體資訊。

Okay. All right. Thank you.

好的。好的。謝謝。

We have time for two more questions. We'll go next to PJ McKneely from American Technology. Please go ahead.

我們還有時間再問兩個問題。接下來我們請來自 American Technology 的 PJ McKneely。請繼續。

Good afternoon. Thanks. If you look at chart sales for Shrek 2 and Lemony Snickets. Is this really a movement towards broadening the games into the kidy demographic and the family demographic, or is this really more of an offshoot of movie-based titles?

午安.謝謝。如果你看看《史瑞克 2》和《檸檬脆片》的銷售排行榜。這真的是一場將遊戲擴展到兒童和家庭人群的運動，還是這實際上更像是電影遊戲的分支？

Our strategy as the cycle matures is to shift our IP focus to more mass appeal properties. So what you're seeing is that strategy in action, and mass appeal properties include movie-based games like the ones that we have in our slate for next year. So it's really based on our strategy of focusing our -- aligning our IP portfolio with the consumer out there that's buying games.

隨著週期的成熟，我們的策略是將我們的智慧財產權重點轉向更具大眾吸引力的資產。因此，您所看到的是正在實施的策略，以及具有大眾吸引力的產品，包括基於電影的遊戲，就像我們明年推出的遊戲一樣。因此，這實際上是基於我們的策略，即讓我們的智慧財產權組合與購買遊戲的消費者保持一致。

One thing I will say, though, generally speaking the focus is on proven predictable franchises. In the case of limine snik it, it is a literary property with good history and our research suggested that the historical success of the property would translate well into a video game, regardless of whether or not there was a motion picture activity. Now that there's a motion picture and especially a Jim Carey movie, we got a lot more excited about the opportunity. In the case of shark Tale, it is, as we would say, an unprofession property. And generally the strategy of the company is to move towards more focused, profession, predictable franchises, so that's a little more speculative and not in the ordinary course of our business.

不過，我要說的一件事是，一般來說，重點是經過驗證的可預測的特許經營權。就《limine snik it》而言，它是一個具有悠久歷史的文學財產，我們的研究表明，無論是否有電影活動，該財產的歷史成功都可以很好地轉化為視頻遊戲。現在有了電影，尤其是金凱瑞的電影，我們對這個機會感到更加興奮。就《鯊魚故事》而言，正如我們所說，它是一種不專業的財產。一般來說，公司的策略是轉向更專注、專業、可預測的特許經營權，因此這更具投機性，而不是在我們的正常業務過程中。

Great. Thanks. One housekeeping, you talked about software emulators -- do you have any software emulators for the Xbox 2 or PS3 or whatever the next Nintendo will be?

偉大的。謝謝。一項內務工作，您談到了軟體模擬器 - 您是否有適用於 Xbox 2 或 PS3 或任何下一代任天堂的軟體模擬器？

No.

不。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Our last question comes from Paul Triumph from First Albany Capital. Please go ahead.

我們的最後一個問題來自 First Albany Capital 的 Paul Triumph。請繼續。

Hi, guys. Congratulations.

嗨，大家好。恭喜。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Just a quick question on how you think the revenue flows next year. Sounds like you've got some strong -- strong properties up in the first half of the year. With -- with a late Spiderman launch, do you expect that to be flat into September-ish and then to make the back half look a little bit more in terms of percentage revenue like this year?

只是簡單問一下您認為明年的收入流向如何。聽起來你在今年上半年已經擁有了一些強大的資產。隨著《蜘蛛人》的推出，您是否預計到 9 月會持平，然後讓下半年的收入百分比看起來像今年一樣？

Give us a chance to give you that direction at the next call. We -- you know, clearly, you're right that we're expecting to do well with Shrek 2 and Spiderman 2 in the first half of the year, but we want to let the total slate solidify a little more and make sure that we calendarize it appropriately before we're going to give out additional guidance for the back half of the year as far as revenue slate is concerned.

讓我們有機會在下次通話時為您提供指導。我們——你知道，顯然，你是對的，我們希望《史瑞克 2》和《蜘蛛人 2》在今年上半年表現出色，但我們希望讓整體情況更加鞏固，並確保在我們對下半年的收入情況提供額外指導之前，我們會對其進行適當的日曆安排。

Okay. Thanks. I guess kind of a question on the development side, given the investments you guys have made, are you seeing a faster development time or faster time to market, or are you just able to tack on better, you know, testing and then you kind of -- it's kind of still around that in terms of total development time?

好的。謝謝。我想這是開發方面的一個問題，考慮到你們所做的投資，你們是否看到更快的開發時間或更快的上市時間，或者你們是否能夠更好地進行測試，然後你們就可以了就總開發時間而言，仍然是這樣嗎？

On this generation hardware, the Play Station 2, the Xbox, we have not really seen development times shorten as the cycle matures. Yes there, is the benefit of existing engines. The challenges of developing games that are competitive with the best games outside there, and that's our objective. -- are substantial and take time, so we've not really seen a shortening of the development cycle.

在這一代硬體上，例如 Play Station 2、Xbox，我們並沒有真正看到開發時間隨著週期的成熟而縮短。是的，這就是現有引擎的好處。開發與外界最好的遊戲具有競爭力的遊戲所面臨的挑戰，這就是我們的目標。——數量龐大且需要時間，因此我們並沒有真正看到開發週期的縮短。

On the PSP side, where are you guys thinking in terms of, you know, you have in terms of development times for that platform? And are you seeing any snrgs now as you've had the emulator in place for, you know, at least a quarter?

在 PSP 方面，你們對於該平台的開發時間有什麼看法？現在您是否看到任何 snrgs，因為您已經安裝了模擬器，您知道，至少四分之一了？

Yeah, we are seeing some synergies there from, in terms of being able to use existing code and using that as the foundation for the development of the games for that new platform. Right now, we feel like we're on track with a couple of games to go out with the launch of the platform. Obviously, there's still a lot of work to be done, so we'll update you as time goes by.

是的，我們看到了一些協同效應，即能夠使用現有程式碼並將其作為新平台遊戲開發的基礎。現在，我們感覺隨著該平台的推出，我們正在準備推出幾款遊戲。顯然，還有很多工作要做，所以我們會隨著時間的推移向您更新。

Okay. Is the distribution channel there the same that you're looking at for PSP?

好的。那裡的分銷管道與您正在尋找的 PSP 分銷管道相同嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Thanks, guys. Congratulations.

好的。多謝你們。恭喜。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And due to our time constraints today, this does conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to Ms. Southy for additional comments.

由於我們今天的時間有限，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將電話轉回索西女士以徵求更多意見。

Q Thank you all for joining us today. For those of you with questions after the call, please contact me directly. And on behalf of everyone at Activision, we appreciate your time. Thank you.

Q：感謝大家今天加入我們。通話後如有疑問，請直接與我聯絡。我們謹代表動視公司的全體員工，感謝您抽出寶貴的時間。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude your conference today. We do thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。我們非常感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。