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Operator
Operator
Good morning. Thank you for attending the Aspen Aerogels, Inc. Q2 2023 financial results call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Neal Baranosky, Aspen Senior Director of Corporate Strategy and Finance. Thank you. You may proceed, Mr. Baranosky.
早安.感謝您參加 Aspen Aerogels, Inc. 2023 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。 (操作員指示)我現在想將會議轉交給東道主尼爾·巴拉諾斯基(Neal Baranosky),他是阿斯彭企業戰略和財務高級總監。謝謝。您可以繼續了,巴拉諾斯基先生。
Neal Baranosky - Senior Director of Corporate Strategy & Finance
Neal Baranosky - Senior Director of Corporate Strategy & Finance
Thank you, Henry. Good morning and thank you for joining us for the Aspen Aerogels' fiscal year 2023 second-quarter financial results conference call. With us today are Don Young, President and CEO; and Ricardo Rodriguez, Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝你,亨利。早上好,感謝您參加 Aspen Aerogels 2023 財年第二季度財務業績電話會議。今天與我們在一起的有總裁兼首席執行官 Don Young;和首席財務官里卡多·羅德里格斯。
There are a few housekeeping items that I'd like to address before turning the call over to Dan. The press release announcing Aspen's financial results and business developments as well as a reconciliation of management's use of non-GAAP financial measures compared to the most applicable US generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP measures is available on the investors section of Aspen's website, www.aerogel.com.
在將電話轉給丹之前,我想先解決一些內務問題。宣布 Aspen 的財務業績和業務發展以及管理層使用非 GAAP 財務指標與最適用的美國公認會計原則或 GAAP 指標的對比的新聞稿可在 Aspen 網站 www.aerogel 的投資者部分獲取.com。
In addition, I'd like to highlight that we have uploaded to our website a slide deck that will accompany our conversation today. You can find the deck at the investors section of our website.
此外,我想強調的是,我們已將幻燈片上傳到我們的網站,該幻燈片將伴隨我們今天的對話。您可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到該套牌。
On today's call, management will make forward-looking statements about our expectations. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties include the factors identified in our filings with the SEC. Please review the disclaimer statement on pages 1 and 2 of the slide deck, as the content of our call will be governed by this language.
在今天的電話會議上,管理層將對我們的期望做出前瞻性陳述。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性,可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括我們向 SEC 提交的文件中確定的因素。請查看幻燈片第 1 頁和第 2 頁上的免責聲明,因為我們的通話內容將受此語言管轄。
During this call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA. These financial measures are not prepared in accordance with GAAP. These non-GAAP financial measures are not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. For definitions and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and a discussion of why we present these non-GAAP financial measures are included in yesterday's press release.
在本次電話會議中,我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標,包括調整後的 EBITDA。這些財務指標並非根據公認會計準則制定。這些非公認會計原則財務指標不應被孤立考慮,也不能替代根據公認會計原則編制的結果。有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的定義和調節,以及我們為何提出這些非 GAAP 財務指標的討論,請參閱昨天的新聞稿。
And one final note, during the Q&A session, in the interest of time, we ask that you limit your questions to two questions at a time. If you have additional questions beyond the initial two, please get back into the queue and we will get to all questions.
最後要注意的是,在問答環節中,為了節省時間,我們要求您一次將問題限制為兩個問題。如果您除了前兩個問題之外還有其他問題,請回到隊列中,我們將解決所有問題。
I'll now turn the call over to Don, Don?
我現在把電話轉給唐,唐?
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Thanks, Neal. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q2 2023 earnings call. My initial comments will highlight the implementation of several critical elements of our strategy, our EV OEM development pipeline and GM's ramp, and the financial benefits of key operating efficiencies.
謝謝,尼爾。大家,早安。感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。我的初步評論將強調我們戰略的幾個關鍵要素的實施、我們的電動汽車 OEM 開發渠道和通用汽車的產能提升,以及關鍵運營效率的財務收益。
I will complete my remarks by drawing a picture of Aspen's business profile given current assets and opportunities. Ricardo will dig deeper into our financial performance and various elements of our business strategy. We will conclude with a Q&A session.
我將根據當前資產和機會描繪阿斯彭的業務概況來完成我的發言。里卡多將更深入地了解我們的財務業績和業務戰略的各個要素。我們將以問答環節結束。
During our last earnings call, we introduced the idea of our supplemental supply arrangement and the related plan to supply our energy industrial customers with products sourced from our aerogel manufacturing partner. The product will be produced exclusively for Aspen to our quality specifications and shipped by us under our labeling and through our distribution to our customers.
在我們上次的財報電話會議上,我們介紹了補充供應安排的想法以及相關計劃,以為我們的能源工業客戶提供來自我們的氣凝膠製造合作夥伴的產品。該產品將按照我們的質量規格專門為阿斯彭生產,並由我們按照我們的標籤運輸,並通過我們的分銷方式運送給我們的客戶。
The implementation of this supplemental supply arrangement supports several critical elements of our strategy. First, it allows us to serve our energy industrial customers with shorter, more dependable lead times and to continue to grow that baseload of revenue without supply constraints and in a manner consistent with our goal of achieving overall company gross margins of at least 35%.
這一補充供應安排的實施支持了我們戰略的幾個關鍵要素。首先,它使我們能夠以更短、更可靠的交貨時間為能源工業客戶提供服務,並在不受供應限制的情況下繼續增加收入的基本負荷,並以符合我們實現公司整體毛利率至少35 % 的目標的方式。
Second, it allows us to dedicate Plant I in Rhode Island to produce PyroThin thermal barriers in order to support the ramp of our EV OEMs. And third, it allows us to maintain a strong balance sheet by right timing, the final phase of the construction of Plant II in Georgia.
其次,它使我們能夠在羅德島州設立一號工廠專門生產 PyroThin 隔熱層,以支持我們的電動汽車原始設備製造商的產能擴張。第三,它使我們能夠在正確的時機(喬治亞州第二工廠建設的最後階段)保持強勁的資產負債表。
In whole, the implementation of the supplemental supply arrangement allows us to focus on driving significant profitability from our existing resources and opportunities. We believe that we are building a business around our current assets and near-term commercial opportunities that has the potential to produce annually approximately $550 million of revenue, approximately $200 million of gross profit, and approximately $140 million of EBITDA. We are striving to hit this level of business performance on a run rate basis over the next four to six quarters.
總體而言,補充供應安排的實施使我們能夠專注於利用現有資源和機會實現顯著盈利。我們相信,我們正在圍繞我們的現有資產和近期商業機會建立一項業務,該業務有潛力每年產生約 5.5 億美元的收入、約 2 億美元的毛利潤和約 1.4 億美元的 EBITDA。我們正努力在未來四到六個季度的運行率基礎上達到這一業務績效水平。
At the same time, we believe that we maintain our full longer-term upside potential as we continue to have talented teams garnering more design wins from EV OEMs to build out our profitable baseload of energy industrial revenue and to leverage our aerogel technology platform into additional high-value markets, including our ongoing work in battery materials.
與此同時,我們相信,我們將保持全部長期上行潛力,因為我們繼續擁有才華橫溢的團隊,從電動汽車原始設備製造商那裡獲得更多設計勝利,以建立我們的能源工業收入的盈利基荷,並利用我們的氣凝膠技術平台來實現更多目標高價值市場,包括我們在電池材料方面正在進行的工作。
Regarding additional design wins from EV OEMs, we continue to build our reputation as an industry leader in the mitigation of the risks associated with thermal runaway. We are working closely with several EV OEMs as they finalize the designs of their battery platforms. As we announced earlier, we received our third design award from an important commercial truck subsidiary of a major European OEM group. We are now delivering production part to this customer.
關於獲得電動汽車原始設備製造商的更多設計勝利,我們將繼續在降低熱失控相關風險方面樹立行業領導者的聲譽。我們正在與多家電動汽車原始設備製造商密切合作,幫助他們完成電池平台的設計。正如我們之前宣布的,我們從歐洲一家主要 OEM 集團的一家重要商用卡車子公司獲得了第三個設計獎。我們現在正在向該客戶交付生產部件。
In addition, we believe we have near-term line of sight on design awards from at least three other EV OEMs, with volumes expected to commence in 2024 and ramp in 2025. In the meantime, we anticipate an acceleration of the revenue ramp from General Motors later this year as they enter the production phase of the higher volume, Silverado, Blazer, Equinox, and BrightDrop electric vehicles.
此外,我們相信我們近期將獲得至少三個其他電動汽車原始設備製造商的設計獎項,預計銷量將於 2024 年開始並在 2025 年增加。與此同時,我們預計通用汽車的收入將加速增長今年晚些時候,汽車將進入更高產量的Silverado、Blazer、Equinox 和BrightDrop 電動汽車的生產階段。
Turning to slide 4 and our energy industrial business, both financial performance and demand are strong. Driven by product mix, operating efficiencies, and a more normalized supply chain environment, we achieved a record energy industrial gross margin in Q2 of 27%. We believe we are on track of having the energy industrial business provide strong support for our overall company gross margin target of at least 35%.
轉向幻燈片 4 和我們的能源工業業務,財務表現和需求都很強勁。在產品結構、運營效率和更加規範的供應鏈環境的推動下,我們第二季度的能源工業毛利率達到了創紀錄的27%。我們相信,能源工業業務有望為我們至少 35% 的整體公司毛利率目標提供強有力的支持。
We have significantly greater demand than we can produce from Plant I, especially as we dedicate additional manufacturing lines to producing PyroThin thermal barriers. The supplemental supply arrangement is key to balancing supply and demand for the energy industrial business. We previously said that we plan to test our supplemental supply strategy during 2023 before the full program begins to contribute in Q1 2024.
我們的需求遠遠大於第一工廠的生產能力,特別是當我們專門投入額外的生產線來生產 PyroThin 隔熱層時。補充供應安排是平衡能源工業業務供需的關鍵。我們之前曾表示,我們計劃在 2023 年測試我們的補充供應策略,然後整個計劃將在 2024 年第一季度開始貢獻。
To that end, we are currently focused on the completion of our product qualifications with our aerogel manufacturing partner, which when completed, we believe has the potential to drive incremental energy industrial revenue, gross profit, and EBITDA during 2023.
為此,我們目前的重點是與氣凝膠製造合作夥伴完成我們的產品資格認證,我們相信完成後有潛力在 2023 年推動能源工業收入、毛利潤和 EBITDA 的增量。
Turning back to the earlier slide, in many ways, Q2 was about blocking and tackling with a keen focus on strategic advancement and unit economics and profitability. Progress in operating efficiencies resulted in a 17% gross margin with significant improvements in both the PyroThin thermal barriers and energy industrial segments.
回到之前的幻燈片,從很多方面來說,第二季度都是關於阻止和應對,重點關注戰略進步以及單位經濟性和盈利能力。運營效率的進步使毛利率提高了 17%,PyroThin 熱障和能源工業領域均取得了顯著改善。
To illustrate the financial impact of the improved operating performance, it is interesting to compare Q2 2023 with Q2 2022, where we had $2.5 million of incremental revenue, and $9.6 million of incremental gross profit. Each contributing factor falls under the umbrella of our intense focus on our goal of reaching near-term profitability and achieving gross margins of at least 35%. Consistent with these goals, we are maintaining careful control of OpEx with three quarters in a row at the $25-million level.
為了說明經營業績改善的財務影響,將 2023 年第二季度與 2022 年第二季度進行比較很有趣,其中我們的增量收入為 250 萬美元,增量毛利潤為 960 萬美元。每個影響因素都屬於我們對實現近期盈利能力和毛利率至少 35% 的目標的高度關注。與這些目標一致,我們對運營支出保持謹慎控制,連續三個季度保持在 2500 萬美元的水平。
Before I turn the call over to Ricardo, I want to reiterate that our vision for Aspen is built upon the successful execution of the three pillars of our strategy, namely the implementation of the supplemental supply arrangement, the dedication of Plant I production to PyroThin thermal barriers, and the right timing of Plant II.
在我把電話轉給里卡多之前,我想重申,我們對阿斯彭的願景是建立在成功執行我們戰略的三大支柱的基礎上的,即實施補充供應安排、將第一工廠的生產奉獻給PyroThin 熱能障礙,以及第二工廠的正確時機。
Again, we believe that from our existing resources and opportunities, the business has the potential to generate on an annual basis, approximately $550 million in revenue, approximately $200 million in gross profit, and approximately $140 million in EBITDA. We believe that we maintain our full upside opportunity. But during a period -- a potential period of economic uncertainty and while our EV OEMs ramp, we optimize the use of our existing assets and opportunities to create a cash generating business and to avoid unnecessary dilution.
我們再次相信,利用我們現有的資源和機會,該業務有潛力每年產生約 5.5 億美元的收入、約 2 億美元的毛利潤和約 1.4 億美元的 EBITDA。我們相信我們將保持充分的上漲機會。但在一段時期內——一個潛在的經濟不確定時期,在我們的電動汽車原始設備製造商擴張的同時,我們優化了現有資產和機會的使用,以創建現金產生業務並避免不必要的稀釋。
Ricardo, over to you.
里卡多,交給你了。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Thank you, Don. And good morning, everyone. I'll start by covering the results of the second quarter and first half of this year and then move on to our 2023 outlook, and briefly discuss the key near term demand drivers across our business segments. Before handing the call back to Don, I'll also spend some time framing out how we're gearing the company for continued improvements to near-term financial performance as we continued to grow without requiring a secondary job plant in Georgia, which we've historically referred to as Plant II.
謝謝你,唐。大家早上好。我將首先介紹今年第二季度和上半年的業績,然後轉向我們的 2023 年展望,並簡要討論我們業務部門的關鍵近期需求驅動因素。在將電話交還給唐之前,我還將花一些時間來製定我們如何調整公司以持續改善近期財務業績,因為我們在佐治亞州不需要第二個工作工廠的情況下繼續發展,我們'歷史上稱為第二工廠。
To cover our results from Q2 of 2023, I'll start on slide 5. Beginning with revenues, we delivered $48.2 million of revenue in Q2, which translates into 6% growth year over year. These revenues were supply-constrained during the quarter as our aerogel plant was down for plant upgrades and maintenance on two of its three production lines, with the lines down for seven and eight days during the quarter.
為了介紹 2023 年第二季度的業績,我將從幻燈片 5 開始。從收入開始,我們在第二季度實現了 4820 萬美元的收入,相當於同比增長 6%。本季度這些收入受到供應限制,因為我們的氣凝膠工廠因設備升級和三條生產線中兩條生產線的維護而停機,生產線在本季度停機了七天和八天。
In an operation that is running 24 hours a day, seven days a week, this is a loss of productivity of at least 8% on those lines during the quarter. This downtime and production was necessary to ensure that we're ready to fulfill an expected ramp in PyroThin demand during the second half of 2023, particularly in Q4. Year to date, we have delivered $93.7 million of revenue, which reflects a 12% year-over-year increase.
對於每週 7 天、每天 24 小時運行的運營來說,本季度這些生產線的生產力損失至少為 8%。這次停機和生產是必要的,以確保我們準備好滿足 2023 年下半年(特別是第四季度)PyroThin 需求的預期增長。年初至今,我們已實現收入 9,370 萬美元,同比增長 12%。
Energy industrial revenues in the first half of the year were $69.4 million, a 6% year-over-year increase. Given our capacity constraints, in Q2, we continued to focus on optimizing our energy industrial production mix to lighten the load on our operations by making those products that required the least standard of processing and delivered $35.5 million in sales, reflecting a 5% quarterly increase and a 2% year-over- year increase.
上半年能源工業收入為6940萬美元,同比增長6%。鑑於我們的產能限制,第二季度我們繼續專注於優化能源工業生產結構,通過生產加工標準最低的產品來減輕我們的運營負擔,並實現了 3550 萬美元的銷售額,季度增長 5%同比增長2 %。
Adding to Don's earlier remarks on our energy business, we have approximately $138 million of backlog in orders to fulfill over the next two to four quarters. To fulfill this excess demand, we are focused on continuing to optimize our mix for steady supply during the second half of the year and bringing in contract manufacturing supply as soon as possible.
加上 Don 之前對我們能源業務的評論,我們還有大約 1.38 億美元的積壓訂單需要在未來兩到四個季度內完成。為了滿足這種過剩的需求,我們的重點是繼續優化我們的結構,以確保下半年的穩定供應,並儘快引入合同製造供應。
EV thermal barrier revenues of $12.6 million were up 17% year over year and 8% quarter over quarter, reflecting an expected delay in the demand increase from General Motors that we communicated during our Q1 results and steady volumes from the Toyota nameplate that we supply, the bZ4X. Our EV thermal barrier revenues of $24.3 million during the first half of 2023 represent a 32% increase over the first half of 2022.
電動汽車熱障收入為 1260 萬美元,同比增長 17%,環比增長 8%,反映出我們在第一季度業績中傳達的通用汽車需求增長預期延遲以及我們供應的豐田銘牌銷量穩定, bZ4X。 2023 年上半年,我們的電動汽車熱障收入為 2,430 萬美元,比 2022 年上半年增長 32%。
Next, I'll provide a summary of our main expenses. Material expenses of $17.4 million for the quarter made up 36 percentage points of sales, reflecting the work that our supply chain and procurement groups have put into reducing the cost of some of our main raw materials, particularly silanes. In a normalized environment, it is encouraging to see these costs come in 4 percentage points of sales, below our usual target of 40 percentage points of sales.
接下來,我將總結一下我們的主要開支。本季度的材料費用為 1740 萬美元,佔銷售額的 36 個百分點,反映了我們的供應鍊和採購團隊為降低一些主要原材料(尤其是矽烷)的成本所做的工作。在正常化環境中,令人鼓舞的是這些成本佔銷售額的 4 個百分點,低於我們通常的銷售額 40 個百分點的目標。
The Q2 performance enabled our total material costs for the first half of 2023 to be of $36 million or 38 percentage points of sales or 200 basis points below our target of 40 percentage points of sales. Conversion costs, which we describe as all production costs required to convert raw materials into finished products were $22.4 million or 46 percentage points of sales in Q2. These costs include all elements of direct labor, manufacturing overhead, factory supplies, rent, insurance, utilities, process, logistics, quality, and inspection.
第二季度的業績使我們 2023 年上半年的總材料成本達到 3600 萬美元,佔銷售額的 38 個百分點,比我們 40 個百分點的目標低 200 個基點。轉換成本(我們將其描述為將原材料轉換為成品所需的所有生產成本)為 2,240 萬美元,佔第二季度銷售額的 46 個百分點。這些成本包括直接勞動力、製造費用、工廠供應、租金、保險、公用事業、流程、物流、質量和檢驗的所有要素。
These results compare favorably to conversion costs in Q1 of this year, which was a 48 percentage points of sales. As previously mentioned, our long-term target for these costs at a higher revenue run rate of 20 to 25 percentage points of sales. So we still have work ahead of us here.
這些結果與今年第一季度的轉換成本相比毫不遜色,佔銷售額的 48 個百分點。如前所述,我們對這些成本的長期目標是將收入運行率提高到銷售額的 20 至 25 個百分點。因此,我們仍然有工作要做。
While we've made improvements, primarily thanks to the efficiency of our operations in Mexico, we need to continue capturing additional opportunities to reduce these costs. As our plant in Rhode Island is fully converted to making PyroThin and it finds its flow, we will continue driving several reductions in the cost of a standard hour of product conversion at the site.
雖然我們已經取得了進步,這主要歸功於我們在墨西哥的運營效率,但我們需要繼續抓住更多機會來降低這些成本。隨著我們位於羅德島州的工廠完全轉變為生產 PyroThin 並找到其流程,我們將繼續推動現場標準小時產品轉換成本的大幅降低。
Year to date, our conversion costs of $44.2 million reflects 47 percentage points of sales on our performance improvement year over year here has been primarily driven by fabricating $99 million of subsea products within our energy industrial segment in Mexico versus Rhode Island.
今年迄今為止,我們的轉換成本為4420 萬美元,反映出我們的業績同比增長了47 個百分點,這主要是由於我們在墨西哥的能源工業部門與羅德島州相比製造了9900 萬美元的海底產品。
In Q2, company-level gross profit margins were up 17%, and our gross profit of $8.4 million is a $9.6 million improvement over our gross loss of $1.2 million during the same quarter last year on revenues that were only 6% lower, highlighting how we haven't just been relying on higher revenues to drive profitability. The material cost tailwinds have been helpful, but we still need to keep pushing for a lower fixed manufacturing cost base through process updates.
第二季度,公司級毛利率上升了 17%,毛利潤為 840 萬美元,比去年同期毛虧損 120 萬美元改善了 960 萬美元,而去年同期的收入僅下降了 6%,這突顯了我們如何我們不僅僅依靠更高的收入來提高盈利能力。材料成本的推動是有幫助的,但我們仍然需要通過流程更新繼續推動降低固定製造成本基礎。
Our energy industrial segment delivered $9.6 million of gross profit or a 59% year-over-year increase. In EV thermal barriers, we had a $1.1 million gross loss in Q2. If we compare this quarter with Q1, our EV thermal barrier gross loss improved by $2.7 million on incremental revenue of only $900,000. Our second quarter of 2023 gross loss in EV thermal barriers was also 84% lower than the gross loss of $7.2 million that we incurred during Q2 of last year in this segment, reflecting the benefits of automation and our assembly facilities in Mexico.
我們的能源工業部門實現毛利潤 960 萬美元,同比增長 59%。在電動汽車熱障領域,我們第二季度的毛虧損為 110 萬美元。如果我們將本季度與第一季度進行比較,我們的電動汽車熱障毛損失減少了 270 萬美元,而增量收入僅為 90 萬美元。 2023 年第二季度,我們在電動汽車熱障領域的毛損失也比去年第二季度該領域的毛損失 720 萬美元低了 84%,這反映了自動化和我們在墨西哥的裝配設施的好處。
The resulting gross profit margins during the quarter were 27% and negative 9% for our energy industrial and EV thermal barrier segments, respectively. For EV thermal barriers through Q1 of 2023, we needed a quarterly revenue run rate of $20 million to achieve a positive gross profit. Thanks to additional assembly automation that the team has been implementing, we have now lowered this breakeven point to approximately $15 million of quarterly revenues.
本季度能源工業和電動汽車熱障領域的毛利率分別為 27% 和負 9%。對於截至 2023 年第一季度的電動汽車熱障,我們需要 2000 萬美元的季度收入運行率才能實現正毛利潤。由於團隊實施了額外的裝配自動化,我們現在已將季度收入的盈虧平衡點降低至約 1500 萬美元。
For the first half of the year, our gross profit of $13.5 million reflects a $16.5 million improvement in gross profit versus our loss of $3 million during the same period last year. Operating expenses, which are sized for our near-term projected annual revenue capacity of over $550 million were $25.5 million during the quarter. We continue to level off our OpEx increases with three consecutive quarters around the $25 million range and have ensure that any additional costs are focused on streamlining how we work and increasing productivity through new process development and important system upgrades with 12-month paybacks.
今年上半年,我們的毛利潤為 1,350 萬美元,與去年同期的虧損 300 萬美元相比,毛利潤增加了 1,650 萬美元。本季度的運營支出為 2,550 萬美元,該支出是根據我們近期預計年收入能力超過 5.5 億美元計算的。我們繼續將運營支出增長穩定在連續三個季度約2500 萬美元的範圍內,並確保任何額外成本都集中在通過新流程開發和重要係統升級(12 個月投資回收期)來簡化我們的工作方式和提高生產力。
Approximately one-third of our quarter over quarter OpEx increase of 1.5 million was driven by strategic investments in resources tied to accelerating EV thermal barrier sales and commercial launch activity with specific customers. Putting these elements together, our adjusted EBITDA was negative $10.8 million in Q2 compared to negative $18.3 million during the same period last year, resulting in a year-over-year reduction in our EBITDA loss of 41%.
運營支出環比增長 150 萬,其中約三分之一是由與加速電動汽車熱障銷售和特定客戶的商業啟動活動相關的資源戰略投資推動的。將這些因素放在一起,我們第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 1,080 萬美元,而去年同期為負 1,830 萬美元,導致我們的 EBITDA 損失同比減少了 41%。
When we compare our year-to-date adjusted EBITDA loss of $24.8 million with our original expectations for the first half of 2023, we're $14 million ahead of those plans, and our EBITDA loss was lower by $8.1 million during the first half of this year versus last year. As a reminder, we define adjusted EBITDA as net income or loss before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, stock-based compensation expenses, and other items that we do not believe are indicative of our core operating performance.
當我們將年初至今調整後的EBITDA 損失2480 萬美元與我們對2023 年上半年的最初預期進行比較時,我們比這些計劃提前了1400 萬美元,並且我們的EBITDA 損失在2023 年上半年減少了810萬美元。今年與去年相比。提醒一下,我們將調整後的 EBITDA 定義為扣除利息、稅項、折舊、攤銷、股票補償費用以及我們認為不能反映我們核心經營業績的其他項目之前的淨收入或虧損。
In Q2, these other items included $2.7 million of stock-based compensation and $1.6 million of net interest income. Our net loss in Q2 decreased to $15.4 million or $0.22 per share versus a net loss of $24.1 million or $0.68 per share in the same quarter of 2022. Our quarter-over-quarter net loss decreased by $1.4 million from $16.8 million. Our year-to-date net loss of $32.2 million is $11.3 million lower than our loss of $43.5 million during the first half of last year or down by 26%.
第二季度,這些其他項目包括 270 萬美元的股票薪酬和 160 萬美元的淨利息收入。我們第二季度的淨虧損降至1540 萬美元,即每股0.22 美元,而2022 年同一季度的淨虧損為2410 萬美元,即每股0.68 美元。我們的季度淨虧損從1680 萬美元減少了140萬美元。我們今年迄今的淨虧損為 3,220 萬美元,比去年上半年的虧損 4,350 萬美元減少了 1,130 萬美元,下降了 26%。
Next, I'll turn to cash flow and our balance sheet. Cash used in operations of $7.7 million reflect that our adjusted EBITDA of negative $10.8 million and a decrease in cash needs of $3.2 million. The key items that enabled us to free up working capital during the quarter were an increase in accounts payable of $4.1 million and a decrease in accounts receivable of $3.3 million, while our inventory increased by $6.3 million and consume working capital.
接下來,我將轉向現金流和我們的資產負債表。運營中使用的現金為 770 萬美元,反映出我們調整後的 EBITDA 為負 1,080 萬美元,現金需求減少了 320 萬美元。本季度使我們能夠釋放營運資金的關鍵項目是應付賬款增加了 410 萬美元,應收賬款減少了 330 萬美元,而我們的庫存增加了 630 萬美元並消耗了營運資金。
Our capital expenditures during the quarter were at $66 million. This put our operating cash needs for the quarter at $73.7 million. $40.7 million of our CapEx was spent in closing the main buildings of Plant II in Georgia and in helping bring the plants to a healthy resting spot. While the remaining $25.3 million was spent on tooling up our facilities in Mexico to support the EV thermal barrier capacity ramp through the end of 2024 and finishing the construction of our recently opened advanced thermal barrier center along with meaningful upgrades to our state-of-the-art material R&D labs outside of Boston.
本季度我們的資本支出為 6600 萬美元。這使得我們本季度的運營現金需求達到 7,370 萬美元。我們的資本支出中有 4070 萬美元用於關閉佐治亞州第二工廠的主要建築,並幫助工廠恢復健康的休息狀態。剩下的2530 萬美元用於完善我們在墨西哥的設施,以支持到2024 年底電動汽車熱障產能的提升,並完成我們最近開放的先進熱障中心的建設以及對我們的先進技術進行有意義的升級-波士頓郊外的藝術材料研發實驗室。
As progress on the construction of our second aerogel manufacturing plant continues, we have incurred $244.9 million in capital expenses through the end of the first half of the year towards it. As the right time this project with the support of Turner Construction, most of the subcontractors left the site during the 4th of July weekend. And we expect to spend less than $30 million over the remainder of the year to preserve the asset and position us to complete the project in four quarters from when we decide to reaccelerate construction at full pace.
隨著我們第二個氣凝膠製造工廠的建設不斷取得進展,截至今年上半年末,我們已為此支出了 2.449 億美元的資本支出。由於該項目在特納建築公司的支持下,大部分分包商在7月4日週末離開了現場。我們預計在今年剩餘時間內花費不到 3000 萬美元來保護資產,並使我們能夠在決定全速加快建設後的四個季度內完成該項目。
We ended the quarter with $134.3 million of cash and shareholders' equity of $420 million.
本季度結束時,我們的現金為 1.343 億美元,股東權益為 4.2 億美元。
Turning over to slide 6, I'd like to spend some time recapping the last 15 months and cover where we've been before going into our updated financial outlook for the remainder of 2023.
轉向幻燈片 6,我想花一些時間回顧過去 15 個月,並介紹我們在更新 2023 年剩餘時間的財務展望之前的情況。
On the left side, you can see how with the exception of Q4 of 2022, where we fulfilled a supplemental order from General Motors, we haven't yet broken through the $50 million quarterly revenue run rate in the past five quarters. But at the same time, we've improved the company's gross profit margins from a low of negative 17% in Q3 of 2022, to positive 11% in Q1 of this year, and 17% in the most recent quarter.
在左側,您可以看到,除了 2022 年第四季度我們履行了通用汽車的補充訂單之外,過去五個季度我們尚未突破 5000 萬美元的季度收入運行率。但與此同時,我們將公司的毛利率從2022年第三季度負17%的低點提高到今年第一季度正11%,最近一個季度為17%。
Our adjusted EBITDA loss has also shrunk from a loss of $23 million in Q3 of 2022 to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $10.8 million in the most recent quarter. Since 2021, we've communicated our plans to double our 2021 revenues by 2023, and we've increased our emphasis on reducing our fixed cost base to accelerate our path to profitability. This doubling of 2021's revenues into 2023 is still a possibility, but it's heavily dependent on demand from General Motors in Q4 and their ability to fulfill this demand alongside that of our energy industrial businesses, growing order backlog.
我們調整後的 EBITDA 虧損也從 2022 年第三季度的 2300 萬美元虧損縮小到最近一個季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損 1080 萬美元。自 2021 年以來,我們已經傳達了到 2023 年將 2021 年收入翻一番的計劃,並且更加重視降低固定成本基礎,以加速我們的盈利之路。 2021 年收入在2023 年翻一番的可能性仍然存在,但這在很大程度上取決於通用汽車第四季度的需求以及他們滿足這一需求以及我們能源工業業務需求的能力,以及不斷增長的訂單積壓。
With this high level of variability in demand from GM, we still maintain a range of $50 million in our revenue outlook for 2023 from $200 million to $250 million. I'll go into more detail in a minute on how we think about General Motors expected ramp.
由於通用汽車的需求變化很大,我們仍然將 2023 年的收入前景維持在 5000 萬美元的範圍內,即 2 億美元到 2.5 億美元之間。我將在一分鐘內更詳細地討論我們如何看待通用汽車的預期增長。
Where we are updating our guidance for 2023 is in profitability, where we are seeing positive results from key initiatives such as optimizing our energy industrial revenue mix, reducing our raw material costs, driving process improvements in our subsea and EV thermal barriers' assembly operations in Mexico, and managing our structural costs to yield a near-term payback. As these efficiencies materialize versus our original plans, we're already $14 million ahead of where we were expecting to be by this time as we were planning the year.
我們更新 2023 年指導的是盈利能力,我們看到關鍵舉措取得了積極成果,例如優化我們的能源工業收入結構、降低原材料成本、推動海底和電動汽車熱障裝配業務的流程改進。墨西哥,並管理我們的結構性成本以產生短期回報。隨著這些效率的實現(與我們最初的計劃相比),我們已經比我們今年計劃的預期提前了 1,400 萬美元。
At the same time, while a higher revenue run rate is required to further drive near-term efficiencies, we're revising our adjusted EBITDA range to a loss of $45 million to $55 million, a loss reduction of $5 million versus our prior range of a negative $50 million to $60 million of adjusted EBITDA for the year.
與此同時,雖然需要更高的收入運行率來進一步提高近期效率,但我們正在將調整後的 EBITDA 範圍修改為虧損 4500 萬美元至 5500 萬美元,比之前的虧損範圍減少了 500 萬美元。本年度調整後EBITDA 為負5000 萬至6000 萬美元。
As we factor in the effect of meaningful interest income and a different amortization schedule as we operated with less deployed capital, we're also lowering our net loss guidance for the year from a loss of $92 million to $102 million to a loss of $75 million to $85 million. This improvement of $17 million represents an 18% and 17% reduction on the lower and upper end of our prior guidance range, respectively. This also brings our earnings per share guidance to an updated loss range of $1.07 per share to $1.21 per share.
由於我們考慮了有意義的利息收入和不同的攤銷時間表的影響,因為我們使用較少的資本進行運營,我們還將今年的淨虧損指導從虧損9200 萬美元降低到1.02 億美元,再降低到虧損7500 萬美元至 8500 萬美元。 1700 萬美元的改進意味著我們之前指導範圍的下限和上限分別減少了 18% 和 17%。這也使我們的每股收益指引更新為每股 1.07 美元至 1.21 美元的虧損範圍。
With $115.4 million of CapEx spend year to date, we're focused on keeping our CapEx for the remainder of the year below $34.6 million, aiming to still not spend more than $150 million of CapEx in 2023. We will only increase this amount if we see a very clear picture of 2024 EV thermal barrier demand as the second half of Q3 and Q4 materialize.
今年迄今為止的資本支出為1.154 億美元,我們的重點是將今年剩餘時間的資本支出保持在3460 萬美元以下,目標是2023 年的資本支出仍不超過1.5 億美元。只有在以下情況下,我們才會增加這一金額:隨著第三季度和第四季度下半年的到來,2024 年電動汽車熱障需求的情況將非常清晰。
To provide flexibility, we've recently come to an agreement with an asset-backed lender to fund up to $25 million of CapEx and are in discussions with other lenders to provide us with additional liquidity during the next few quarters. In the near term, we're focused on managing the company with at least $75 million of cash on the balance sheet and are pursuing non-dilutive sources of financing such as working capital lines of credit, asset-backed loans, equipment leases, and other instruments that leverage our current asset base.
為了提供靈活性,我們最近與一家資產支持貸款機構達成協議,為高達 2500 萬美元的資本支出提供資金,並正在與其他貸款機構進行討論,以便在未來幾個季度為我們提供額外的流動性。短期內,我們的重點是管理資產負債表上至少有 7500 萬美元現金的公司,並尋求非稀釋性融資來源,例如營運資金信貸額度、資產支持貸款、設備租賃和利用我們現有資產基礎的其他工具。
You may remember that on June 15th, we terminated our ATM program and then we have not sold any equity in 2023. To provide flexibility for reaccelerating the construction of Plant II as EV thermal barrier demand starts pointing towards exceeding our current revenue capacity of over $400 million of annual revenues, we have applied for a loan with the US Department of Energy's Loan Program Office, LPO. As a reminder, the LPO was created to grant loans for large-scale energy infrastructure projects with the goal of supporting the development of more fuel-efficient products, including the expansion of domestic manufacturing of electric vehicles.
您可能還記得,6 月15 日,我們終止了ATM 計劃,然後我們在2023 年沒有出售任何股權。隨著電動汽車熱障需求開始超過我們目前超過400 美元的收入能力,為重新加速第二工廠的建設提供靈活性百萬年收入,我們已向美國能源部貸款計劃辦公室(LPO)申請了貸款。需要提醒的是,LPO 的成立是為了向大型能源基礎設施項目提供貸款,旨在支持開發更節能的產品,包括擴大國內電動汽車製造。
Our team has continued consultation with the Loan Program Office and was invited to apply for a significant loan as part of its Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing program, which we did on May 31st of this year. The LPO process is uncertain and there is no guarantee that our proposed application will be looked upon favorably.
我們的團隊繼續與貸款計劃辦公室協商,並受邀申請一筆大額貸款,作為其先進技術車輛製造計劃的一部分,我們於今年 5 月 31 日申請了這筆貸款。 LPO 流程具有不確定性,無法保證我們提出的申請會得到優先考慮。
We believe, however, that we are a very good candidate for a direct loan as part of the ATVM program based on the importance of battery performance and safety. And then while the timing can be drawn out, it may match well with our right timing strategy for Plant II. We have also gotten positive feedback on the quality of the materials provided as part of our application.
然而,我們相信,基於電池性能和安全的重要性,我們是作為 ATVM 計劃一部分的直接貸款的非常好的候選者。然後,雖然時間可以被拉出來,但它可能與我們第二工廠的正確時間策略非常匹配。我們還收到了有關申請過程中提供的材料質量的積極反饋。
Turning over to slide 7, I'd like to provide more color into how we think about General Motors expected. Ultium EV production ramp in the second half of 2023 and beyond with the help of some data from IHS Markit's light vehicle forecast; which as we've seen over the past couple of quarters, has been adjusted downward since the beginning of the year from an expectation of 140,000 Ultium base vehicles to be produced in 2023 to 76,000 vehicles in the most recent forecast, a 46% reduction.
轉到幻燈片 7,我想提供更多關於我們如何看待通用汽車的預期的信息。借助 IHS Markit 輕型汽車預測的一些數據,Ultium EV 產量將在 2023 年下半年及以後大幅增長;正如我們在過去幾個季度中看到的那樣,自今年年初以來,該產量已從 2023 年生產 140,000 輛 Ultium 基礎汽車的預期下調至最近預測的 76,000 輛,減少了 46%。
As we built our revenue projections for 2023 late last year, we anticipated this delay and still believe this forecast to be high. 89% of the expected volume for 2023 is expected to be produced in the second half of the year, putting most of the revenue variability in the second half of Q3 and particularly in Q4.
當我們去年底制定 2023 年收入預測時,我們預計到了這種延遲,並且仍然認為這個預測很高。 2023 年預計產量的 89% 預計將在下半年生產,這使得大部分收入變化出現在第三季度下半年,尤其是第四季度。
GM has cited cell manufacturing supplier automation issues as a source of this production delay, but has said that it remains confident in its ability to resolve these challenges in 2023, reiterating their target for 100,000 EVs in the second half of the year, a figure that includes the Chevy Bolt, a legacy vehicle that is currently not yet based on the Ultium battery platform.
通用汽車錶示,電池製造供應商自動化問題是導致生產延遲的一個原因,但也表示,公司對其在2023 年解決這些挑戰的能力仍然充滿信心,並重申了下半年生產10 萬輛電動汽車的目標,這一數字其中包括雪佛蘭 Bolt,這是一款目前尚未基於 Ultium 電池平台的傳統汽車。
With a 30% increase over our part demand from Q2 from General Motors in Q3 and Q4, we'd be able to achieve the low end of our revenue guidance. In forming the upper end of our guidance is a higher revenue ramp that is currently being communicated by General Motors and the most recent IHS Markit forecast projecting GM to triple its Ultium EV production in Q3 over Q2's levels, and then more than double that production into Q4.
由於第三季度和第四季度通用汽車對我們的零件需求比第二季度增加了 30%,我們將能夠實現收入指導的下限。構成我們指導上限的是通用汽車目前正在傳達的更高的收入增長,以及最新的IHS Markit 預測,預計通用汽車將在第三季度將其Ultium 電動汽車產量比第二季度的水平增加兩倍,然後將該產量增加一倍以上Q4。
We are geared to capitalize on any potential demand scenario. But as you can see, the range of outcomes here is wide but encouraging, particularly for Q4. The production ramp in the vehicles in the second half of 2023 of the nameplates that have already been launched, such as the HUMMER EV, the large BrightDrop van, and the Cadillac Lyriq can drive a significant portion of this demand increase. The Silverado EV and the Blazer that recently launched, along with the Equinox that will begin high volume production in Q4, will provide additional volumes.
我們準備充分利用任何潛在的需求場景。但正如您所看到的,這裡的結果範圍廣泛但令人鼓舞,特別是在第四季度。 2023 年下半年,悍馬 EV、大型 BrightDrop 貨車和凱迪拉克 Lyriq 等已推出車型的產量將在很大程度上推動這一需求增長。最近推出的 Silverado EV 和 Blazer,以及將於第四季度開始大批量生產的 Equinox,將提供額外的銷量。
GM reiterated the start of production dates during its earnings calls last week, and we're ready to support the ramp amidst broader uncertainty brought by the upcoming UAW negotiations of the Detroit-based automakers, including General Motors.
通用汽車在上週的財報電話會議上重申了生產日期的開始,在包括通用汽車在內的底特律汽車製造商即將舉行的聯合汽車工人聯合會談判帶來的更廣泛的不確定性中,我們準備支持產量的增加。
While our 2023 outlook remains wide as GM begins its ramp, we believe that in the long term, the outlook remains strong. This belief is supported by our ongoing conversations with GM, other suppliers, and IHS. GM has continued to reiterate its long-term commitments to significantly ramp up its EV production capacity over the next few years. It continues to emphasize targets of producing 400,000 EVs from 2022 through the end of the first half of 2024, and it's investing in capacity for producing 1 million units per year in North America by 2025. The trends within the latest IHS Markit forecast also align with these expectations for 2024 and 2025.
儘管隨著通用汽車開始加速發展,我們對 2023 年的前景依然廣闊,但我們相信,從長遠來看,前景依然強勁。我們與通用汽車、其他供應商和 IHS 的持續對話支持了這一信念。通用汽車繼續重申其在未來幾年大幅提高電動汽車產能的長期承諾。該公司繼續強調從 2022 年到 2024 年上半年末生產 40 萬輛電動汽車的目標,並投資於 2025 年在北美每年生產 100 萬輛電動汽車的產能。IHS Markit 最新預測中的趨勢也與這些對2024 年和2025 年的期望。
Turning over to slide 8, I'd like to cover a question that most investors have asked us since announcing the right timing of our second aerogel plant in Rhode Island or Plant II. The question is this, what business are you building during the next four to six quarters; to which our answer is now a lot simpler. We're basically building a business with the potential of $550 million in revenue capacity available in 2024 and 25% EBITDA margins as we fill that capacity.
轉向幻燈片 8,我想回答一下自從宣布我們在羅德島州的第二個氣凝膠工廠或第二工廠的正確時機以來大多數投資者都問過我們的一個問題。問題是,您在接下來的四到六個季度內將開展哪些業務?現在我們的答案要簡單得多。我們基本上正在建立一個業務,該業務到 2024 年可實現 5.5 億美元的收入能力,並且在填補該能力時 EBITDA 利潤率為 25%。
Evolving EV thermal barrier demand will determine the timing of when we reach our approximate EV thermal barrier revenue capacity, which we currently estimate at $400 million. Our energy industrial demand already exceeds the initial $150 million of annual capacity enabled by our supply arrangement in 2024.
不斷變化的電動汽車熱障需求將決定我們達到電動汽車熱障收入能力的時間,目前我們估計為 4 億美元。我們的能源工業需求已超過 2024 年供應安排所實現的最初 1.5 億美元的年產能。
As a company, we're working to have our material costs not exceed 40 percentage points of sales. And we're focused on driving our manufacturing or conversion costs to less than 25 percentage points of sales to deliver at least 35% gross margins. 5 percentage points of sales and variance between either of these two cost buckets make up the range in cost structure differences across our products.
作為一家公司,我們努力使材料成本不超過銷售額的 40 個百分點。我們致力於將製造或轉換成本降低至銷售額的 25% 以下,以實現至少 35% 的毛利率。 5 個百分點的銷售額和這兩個成本類別之間的差異構成了我們產品的成本結構差異範圍。
If we manage material and conversion costs as targeted, we have the potential to deliver $200 million of annual gross profit on a run-rate basis. The OpEx ramp that we've experienced during the last two years is coming to its end as we remain focused on managing this below $100 million on an annual run rate basis, which is less than 20% on $550 million of revenues or $110 million.
如果我們按目標管理材料和轉換成本,按運行率計算,我們有可能實現 2 億美元的年度毛利潤。我們在過去兩年中經歷的運營支出增長即將結束,因為我們仍然專注於將年運行率管理在 1 億美元以下,這對於 5.5 億美元或 1.1 億美元的收入來說還不到 20%。
We've illustrated this basic gearing in slide 8, while also showing our historical quarterly financial performance compares with this near-term gearing of our business plan on an annual run-rate basis. While the revenue run rate isn't there yet, we've brought material costs and manufacturing costs down, while the OpEx ramp is being managed.
我們在幻燈片 8 中說明了這種基本的負債率,同時還顯示了我們歷史季度財務業績與我們業務計劃的基於年度運行率的近期負債率的比較。雖然收入運行率尚未達到,但我們已經降低了材料成本和製造成本,同時正在管理運營支出的增長。
In Q4 of 2022, when thanks to a supplemental order from General Motors, our revenue run rate increase. One can see how our fixed manufacturing costs were better absorbed and our gross profit improved to 24%. As Don mentioned earlier, we have the potential to deliver $140 million of EBITDA or 25%-plus gross margin on an annual run rate basis by combining the elements that make up the core gearing of our operating plan in the same quarter.
2022年第四季度,由於通用汽車的補充訂單,我們的收入運行率有所提高。可以看到我們的固定製造成本如何得到更好的吸收,我們的毛利潤提高到了 24%。正如唐之前提到的,通過結合構成我們同一季度運營計劃核心負債的要素,我們有潛力在年度運行率的基礎上實現 1.4 億美元的 EBITDA 或 25% 以上的毛利率。
Over the next four to six quarters, we are looking forward to posting results on this board and getting closer to delivering the profitability that is enabled by this gearing as demand increases across both our segments and we fulfill it with our current asset base combined with supplemental supply. As one can see, material costs are already there, and our focus needs to remain on keeping OpEx near $100 million annually and cutting our manufacturing or conversion costs in half as a percentage of sales with the assistance of higher revenues.
在接下來的四到六個季度中,我們期待在該板上發佈業績,並隨著我們兩個部門的需求增加,更接近實現這種槓桿帶來的盈利能力,我們將利用我們當前的資產基礎與補充來實現這一目標供應。正如我們所看到的,材料成本已經存在,我們的重點仍然是保持運營支出每年接近 1 億美元,並在更高收入的幫助下將我們的製造或轉換成本佔銷售額的百分比削減一半。
Turning over to slide 9, I would like to close by saying that this quarter has been a lot about near-term execution and setting up Aspen for what we believe is an eventual but not conditional surge in demand. We believe that this is really a matter of when, not if. This growth is driven by the underlying global vehicle electrification trend and the high share of vehicles that will be launched with pouch or prismatic cells.
轉向幻燈片 9,我想在結束時說,本季度的重點是短期執行,並為我們認為最終但不是有條件的需求激增而建立了阿斯彭。我們相信,這實際上只是時間問題,而不是是否問題。這一增長是由全球汽車電氣化的潛在趨勢以及將推出的軟包或方形電池的汽車所佔的高比例推動的。
Our latest assessments of PyroThin serviceable addressable market is that it can be of $8.7 billion annually in 2030 or an underlying compounded expansion of 27% per year between now and then. While we don't have a crystal ball and processes market sizing exercise with caution, it's clear that the wind is on our sales as we work our way through the EV plans of different OEMs at their pace, in most cases, enabling a safe transition to electrification.
我們對 PyroThin 可維護目標市場的最新評估是,到 2030 年,該市場每年可達 87 億美元,或者從現在到那時每年復合擴張 27%。雖然我們沒有水晶球並且謹慎地進行市場規模評估,但很明顯,我們的銷售順風順水,因為我們按照不同原始設備製造商的步伐制定電動汽車計劃,在大多數情況下,能夠實現安全過渡到電氣化。
We remain convinced that this is an opportunity worth capturing with all of our assets and energy to create value and post results as demand gets closer to these market sizing estimates. When we step back and compare these market size assessments that account for only a subset of the global EV market, it is easy to see that with our $400 million of near-term potential annual revenue capacity for PyroThin, we are really only getting started at capturing a very large opportunity while building a business that is geared for profitability in the near term.
我們仍然相信,隨著需求越來越接近這些市場規模估計,這是一個值得利用我們所有資產和精力來創造價值和發布成果的機會。當我們退後一步,比較這些僅佔全球電動汽車市場一小部分的市場規模評估時,很容易看出,憑藉 PyroThin 4 億美元的近期潛在年收入能力,我們實際上才剛剛開始抓住一個非常大的機會,同時建立一個旨在短期內盈利的業務。
And with that, I'm happy to pass the call back to Don.
至此,我很高興將電話轉回給唐。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Thank you, Ricardo. We have covered a significant amount of ground today in reviewing Q2 and our strategy.
謝謝你,里卡多。今天,我們在回顧第二季度和我們的戰略時已經討論了很多內容。
Before we move to Q&A, I would like to emphasize three points. First and perhaps our most important point, we are focused on driving significant profitability from our existing resources and opportunities. We believe the near-term business profile as we have constructed and consistent with current assets and commercial opportunities has the potential to produce on an annual basis, approximately $550 million of revenue, approximately $200 million of gross profit, and approximately #140 million of EBITDA.
在進入問答環節之前,我想強調三點。首先,也許也是最重要的一點,我們致力於從現有資源和機會中獲得顯著的盈利能力。我們相信,我們構建的、與當前資產和商業機會相一致的近期業務概況有潛力每年產生約 5.5 億美元的收入、約 2 億美元的毛利潤和約 1.4 億美元的 EBITDA 。
We are striving to hit this level of business performance on a run rate basis within the next four to six quarters. At the same time, we believe that we maintain our full longer-term upside potential as we continue to have talented teams garnering more design wins from EV OEMs, building out a profitable baseload of energy industrial revenue and leveraging our aerogel technology platform into additional high-value markets, including our ongoing work in battery materials.
我們正努力在未來四到六個季度內以運行率達到這一業務績效水平。與此同時,我們相信,我們將保持全部長期上升潛力,因為我們繼續擁有才華橫溢的團隊,從電動汽車原始設備製造商那裡獲得更多設計勝利,建立能源工業收入的盈利基荷,並利用我們的氣凝膠技術平台實現更高的目標-價值市場,包括我們在電池材料方面正在進行的工作。
Second, we believe the implementation of the supplemental supply arrangement, supports several critical elements of our strategy. It allows us to continue to grow the baseload of energy industrial revenue without supply constraints and in a manner consistent with our goal of achieving overall gross margins of at least 35%. The supply arrangement allows us to dedicate Plant I in Rhode Island to produce PyroThin thermal barriers in order to support the ramp of our EV OEMs. And finally, it allows us to maintain a strong balance sheet by the right timing of the final phase of the construction of Plant II in Georgia.
其次,我們相信補充供應安排的實施支持了我們戰略的幾個關鍵要素。它使我們能夠在不受供應限制的情況下繼續增加能源工業收入的基本負荷,並以符合我們實現至少 35% 的總體毛利率的目標的方式。供應安排使我們能夠將羅德島州的 I 工廠專門用於生產 PyroThin 隔熱層,以支持我們的電動汽車原始設備製造商的產能擴張。最後,它使我們能夠在喬治亞州第二工廠最後階段建設的正確時機保持強勁的資產負債表。
And the third point of emphasis, in addition to having the large European commercial truck customer join GM and Toyota on the list of design awards, we believe that we have near-term line of sight on design awards from at least three other EV OEMs with volumes expected to commence in 2024 and ramp in 2025. Even with this anticipated near-term success, our team believes that we are just getting started as the need for battery performance and safety in EVs becomes yet more paramount.
第三點強調,除了讓歐洲大型商用卡車客戶與通用汽車和豐田一起躋身設計獎項之外,我們相信我們近期還關注至少三個其他電動汽車原始設備製造商的設計獎項預計將於2024 年開始量產,並於2025 年實現量產。儘管預期近期會取得成功,但我們的團隊認為,我們才剛剛開始,因為電動汽車對電池性能和安全性的需求變得更加重要。
With that, operator, let's turn to the Q&A.
那麼,接線員,讓我們進入問答環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Eric Stine, Craig Hallum.
(操作員說明)Eric Stine、Craig Hallum。
Eric Stine - Analyst
Eric Stine - Analyst
Hi, Don and Ricardo. Good morning. So first, can we just start with the guidance. You've laid out keeping the OpEx largely flat and reasons why the margins -- potentially some improvement from here. And I know it's dependent on the GM ramp, how steep that might be in the fourth quarter. But your EBITDA guide seems to expect, I guess, very little if any improvement from what we've seen, especially in the second quarter. So maybe just skew that and I know in the past, you've thought that fourth quarter of this year was a potential EBITDA positive quarter, curious whether that still holds.
嗨,唐和里卡多。早安.首先,我們可以從指導開始嗎?您已經闡述了保持運營支出基本持平以及利潤率的原因 - 可能會從這裡得到一些改善。我知道這取決於通用汽車的產量增長,以及第四季度的增長幅度。但我猜,你們的 EBITDA 指南似乎預計,與我們所看到的情況相比,即使有任何改善,也幾乎沒有什麼改善,尤其是在第二季度。所以也許只是歪曲了這一點,我知道過去,你認為今年第四季度是一個潛在的 EBITDA 正季度,好奇這是否仍然成立。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yes. So I mean, I think being EBITDA positive in the fourth quarter is still very much a possibility if the GM ramp materializes. However, at the same time, I mean, just given the range of outcomes and the fact that we almost have to protect for a scenario in which the ramp comes in Q1 of 2024, and we have to produce a lot of PyroThin in Q3 and Q4 of this year without having the ability to recorded as revenue during this year.
是的。所以我的意思是,我認為如果通用汽車的產能擴張實現的話,第四季度 EBITDA 為正的可能性仍然很大。然而,與此同時,我的意思是,考慮到結果的範圍以及我們幾乎必須防範 2024 年第一季度出現增長的情況,並且我們必須在第三季度生產大量 PyroThin 的情況,今年第四季度沒有能力記錄為今年的收入。
And so we felt that that combined with -- I mean in the end, you can only optimize the energy industrial product mix so much without totally not fulfilling orders for particular products. And so we may be in a position here at the end of the year where we have to fulfill some of the energy products that we've sort of postponed manufacturing of during the first half of the year.
因此,我們認為,我的意思是,最終,您只能在很大程度上優化能源工業產品組合,而不會完全不履行特定產品的訂單。因此,我們可能在今年年底必須完成一些我們在上半年推遲生產的能源產品。
And I think that combined with a GM brand that's materializing more aggressively in Q1 of next year is really what guides that conservativeness on the lower end of the guidance. I mean, I do feel pretty good about the savings and there's more juice left to squeeze, particularly as the revenue run rate increases. But we just want to be careful here, Eric, and protect the range from some of these lower probability, but still potential scenarios.
我認為,與明年第一季度更加積極地實現的通用汽車品牌相結合,真正引導了指引下限的保守性。我的意思是,我確實對節省下來的錢感覺非常好,而且還有更多的果汁可以榨取,特別是隨著收入運行率的增加。但我們只是想在這裡小心,埃里克,並保護範圍免受這些概率較低但仍然潛在的情況的影響。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Eric, I would just add to echo what Ricardo said. We realize that our revenue outlook is pretty wide. We're halfway through the year. And there are really two things that that will cause us to move higher in that range. One, of course, is the GM ramp. And the second and I mentioned it in my comments and as did Ricardo, the ability to test the supplemental supply agreement here a bit in the latter part of this year.
埃里克,我只想補充一下里卡多所說的。我們意識到我們的收入前景相當廣闊。我們今年已經過半了。實際上有兩件事會導致我們在這個範圍內走得更高。其中之一當然是通用汽車的坡道。第二個,我在評論中提到過,里卡多也提到過,有能力在今年下半年在這裡測試補充供應協議。
If we can get one or both of those things to happen, of course, we move higher up in that revenue outlook range and I think you'll see us continue to improve our EBITDA outlook. But for now, until we see those things fall into place, while we did improve the EBITDA outlook a bit, I think we're very comfortable with where it is right now.
當然,如果我們能夠實現其中一項或兩項目標,我們的收入前景範圍就會更高,我認為您會看到我們繼續改善 EBITDA 前景。但就目前而言,在我們看到這些事情落實到位之前,雖然我們確實稍微改善了 EBITDA 前景,但我認為我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。
Eric Stine - Analyst
Eric Stine - Analyst
Okay. Yeah, it makes sense. Thanks for that. And then maybe just on the second question. I know you had had some thought that you might whether it was before on this call be able to announce an OEM. I know you mentioned that at least three for the remainder of the year. I mean, is there any thoughts on timing, gating factors there? And maybe longer term, do you kind of have a thought of how many OEMs you potentially have if we look down to, say, 2025?
好的。是的,這是有道理的。感謝那。然後也許只是關於第二個問題。我知道您曾經想過,無論是在這次電話會議之前,您都可能能夠宣布 OEM。我知道你提到今年剩下的時間里至少有三個。我的意思是,對於時機、門控因素有什麼想法嗎?也許從長遠來看,如果我們展望 2025 年,您是否想過您可能擁有多少 OEM?
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Well, we have talked about three to three to-date award -- design awards. As I said in the last earnings call, and reiterate again, we feel confident that we will have a half a dozen design awards by the end of this year. And that will begin to contribute a bit in 2024, but really ramp in 2025. Those are the near-term opportunities. We continue to work with virtually all the companies around the world who have pouch and prismatic designs in their battery platforms. And we believe that we will continue to make inroads with all of those companies.
好吧,我們已經討論了迄今為止的三到三個獎項——設計獎。正如我在上次財報電話會議中所說並再次重申的那樣,我們有信心到今年年底我們將獲得六個設計獎項。這將在 2024 年開始做出一些貢獻,但到 2025 年才會真正增加。這些是近期的機會。我們繼續與世界各地幾乎所有在其電池平台中採用袋裝和棱柱形設計的公司合作。我們相信,我們將繼續與所有這些公司取得進展。
Whether they turn into design awards or not at, time will tell. But I can say, and I think we all are seeing the dangers of thermal runaway and the need to address it have to be ever more important. And we are confident that all the EV OEMs are going to address this in some manner. And again, we think we're are industry leaders in the mitigation of that risk.
它們是否會成為設計獎項,時間會證明一切。但我可以說,我認為我們都看到了熱失控的危險,解決這一問題的必要性變得更加重要。我們相信所有電動汽車原始設備製造商都會以某種方式解決這個問題。再說一次,我們認為我們是減輕這種風險的行業領導者。
Operator
Operator
Alex Potter, Piper Sandler.
亞歷克斯·波特,派珀·桑德勒。
Alex Potter - Analyst
Alex Potter - Analyst
Great. Thanks a lot, guys. So maybe first question on profitability. I guess the things that give you confidence with the new contract manufacturer. You mentioned on the one hand with regard to revenue, you could be toward the higher end of your range, if that contract manufacturer sort of pulls their weight and comes online sooner than expected or on time, which is easy to sort of conceptualize.
偉大的。非常感謝,伙計們。所以也許第一個問題是關於盈利能力的。我想這些事情會讓你對新的合同製造商充滿信心。您提到,一方面,關於收入,如果合同製造商發揮作用並比預期更早或按時上線,那麼您可能會達到範圍的高端,這很容易概念化。
But what I'm trying to get a better understanding of is the impact that that would have on margins. So what does that -- how do you feel confident that as you shift that mix toward the contract manufacturer, somebody won't drop the ball somewhere or there won't be price dislocation and cost dislocation. So anything you can comment on that regard would be great.
但我試圖更好地了解這對利潤率的影響。那麼,這意味著什麼——當你將這種組合轉向合同製造商時,你如何有信心,不會有人在某個地方犯錯,或者不會出現價格錯位和成本錯位。所以你能對此發表任何評論都會很棒。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Yeah, it's a question. So the way we think about it couple of different ways. If you compare it to the current situation of producing in the East Providence plant, we take raw materials from the US, from Europe, and several from Asia, including China. And we bring them, we put them on the water for 8 or 10 weeks, and we bring them into this country, and we pay a 30% tariff, and we bring them up to Rhode Island, and we produce our energy industrial product there. And then we turn around and we export about two-thirds of that, much of it back out to Asia.
是的,這是一個問題。所以我們有幾種不同的思考方式。如果與東普羅維登斯工廠的生產現狀進行比較,我們的原材料來自美國、歐洲,還有一些來自亞洲,包括中國。我們將它們帶入水中 8 或 10 週,然後將它們帶入這個國家,支付 30% 的關稅,然後將它們帶到羅德島州,在那裡生產我們的能源工業產品。然後我們轉身將其中約三分之二出口,其中大部分返回亞洲。
So you can see there's a lot of cost and a lot of time and a lot of working capital associated with all of that. And so I guess the clarity that we have is for one thing, we've got a lot to work with as I just described. And I think the clarity, as you know, we know our pricing for our energy industrial products well established and we also know our contract arrangements from the supplemental supply.
所以你可以看到與所有這些相關的成本、時間和營運資金都很高。因此,我想我們所擁有的清晰度是一方面,正如我剛才所描述的,我們還有很多工作要做。我認為,正如您所知,我們清楚地知道我們對能源工業產品的定價已經確定,我們也知道我們來自補充供應的合同安排。
So there's not an enormous amount of mystery left to that. Yes, we have to execute. They have to execute. We're working very closely with them. But the math is pretty clear to us and it says that it very much supports our overall targets of 27% -- or excuse me, at least 35% gross margin. You saw, Alex, this quarter on the energy industrial side, we were at the 27% level, even without some of these enhancements.
所以這並沒有留下太多的謎團。是的,我們必須執行。他們必須執行。我們正在與他們密切合作。但數學對我們來說非常清楚,它非常支持我們 27% 的總體目標——或者對不起,至少 35% 的毛利率。你看,Alex,本季度在能源工業方面,我們處於 27% 的水平,即使沒有其中一些增強措施。
So I think a lot of our operating efficiencies are improving. We're seeing sort of the supply chain and raw materials. Let me just say sort of normalize a little bit after, of course, a very hectic three-year period or so. So that's sort of the math -- that's sort of the both the atmosphere and the math, I guess, behind the supplemental supply again.
所以我認為我們的很多運營效率正在提高。我們看到了供應鍊和原材料。當然,在非常忙碌的三年左右的時間之後,我只想說有點正常化。這就是數學——我想,這也是補充供應背後的氣氛和數學。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
And if I may add, I mean, I think the margins are aligned with our expectations, given all of the room that there is in the value chain to have a contract manufacturer support our energy business. But most importantly for us and really why the pressure is on us is that we don't really take margins to the bank. We take the incremental gross profit. And here with the backlog of roughly $130 million on the energy side, there's money there that we are just not taking by not being able fulfill the demand.
如果我可以補充的話,我的意思是,考慮到價值鏈中存在讓合同製造商支持我們的能源業務的所有空間,我認為利潤率符合我們的預期。但對我們來說最重要的是,我們面臨壓力的真正原因是我們並沒有真正向銀行收取保證金。我們採用增量毛利潤。能源方面積壓了大約 1.3 億美元,我們只是因為無法滿足需求而沒有拿走這筆錢。
Alex Potter - Analyst
Alex Potter - Analyst
Perfect. That's all very helpful color. Maybe one other question just goes to what you were alluding to just there in the last question with Eric, Don. This is the risk of potentially having to build some inventory given I guess, the uncertain ramp. And I can appreciate how uncertain these ramps are. This is sort of par for the course when somebody turning out of a factory like this.
完美的。這些都是非常有用的顏色。也許還有一個問題與你在上一個問題中提到的埃里克、唐有關。我認為,考慮到不確定的增長,這就是可能必須建立一些庫存的風險。我可以理解這些斜坡的不確定性。當有人從這樣的工廠出來時,這在某種程度上是正常的。
But I've noticed that the inventory has been ramping up a bit sequentially here over the last couple of quarters. What is that? Is that reflecting a preparation for the GM ramp, or I guess just qualitatively, what's in inventory and will that continue?
但我注意到,在過去的幾個季度中,這裡的庫存一直在逐步增加。那是什麼?這是否反映了通用汽車為擴大產量所做的準備,或者我認為只是定性地反映了庫存中有哪些以及這種情況會持續下去嗎?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yeah. I mean, at this point for us, inventory really means flexibility. And so when we look at the demand that we get from a customer like GM or I mean on the automotive side, you're in that sense have a right to build and invoice the customer for the next four weeks of demand. And the demand is changing on you roughly every two weeks. And you have a rough view of what the next 40 weeks are going to look like. But again, that can be changed every two weeks.
是的。我的意思是,目前對我們來說,庫存確實意味著靈活性。因此,當我們考慮從通用汽車或我的意思是汽車方面的客戶那裡獲得的需求時,從這個意義上說,您有權為客戶未來四個星期的需求構建並向客戶開具發票。您的需求大約每兩週就會發生變化。您對接下來的 40 週會是什麼樣子有了一個粗略的了解。但同樣,這可以每兩週改變一次。
And so having some inventory on hand to at least give us a month to react here, particularly on the aerogel side, we think is important as we manage this ramp particularly with GM. And so the roughly $6 million of inventory that we added included quite a bit of finished goods average PyroThin inventory that is basically ready to get processed in Mexico.
因此,我們認為手頭上有一些庫存至少可以給我們一個月的時間做出反應,特別是在氣凝膠方面,因為我們特別是與通用汽車一起管理這一增長,這一點很重要。因此,我們添加的大約 600 萬美元的庫存包括相當多的 PyroThin 製成品平均庫存,這些庫存基本上已準備好在墨西哥進行加工。
I mean, actually, slide 8 is really telling if you -- this is what we're going through now, is almost a repeat of the movie that we saw in Q3 and Q4 of last year. If you see the ramp that we had in Q4, when we fulfill the $101 million of EV thermal barrier revenues on an annual run rate basis, that really came at the expense of energy revenues in Q3. Because we have to make quite a bit of the PyroThin required for Q4 in Q3.
我的意思是,實際上,第 8 張幻燈片確實很能說明問題——這就是我們現在正在經歷的事情,幾乎是我們去年第三季度和第四季度看到的電影的重複。如果你看到我們在第四季度的增長,當我們按年運行率實現 1.01 億美元的電動汽車熱障收入時,這實際上是以第三季度的能源收入為代價的。因為我們必須在第三季度生產第四季度所需的相當多的 PyroThin。
And so that same dynamic is really playing out here until we get the additional supply source for the energy business. And so that's where the inventory build is going. It's really going towards enabling some flexibility on the EV thermal barrier side. And trust me, on the energy industrial side, really the team is doing everything they can to empty the warehouse at the end of each quarter.
因此,在我們獲得能源業務的額外供應來源之前,同樣的動態確實在這裡上演。這就是庫存建設的方向。這實際上是為了在電動汽車隔熱層方面實現一定的靈活性。相信我,在能源工業方面,團隊確實正在盡一切努力在每個季度末清空倉庫。
Operator
Operator
Jeffrey Osborne, TD Cowen.
杰弗裡·奧斯本,TD·考恩。
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
Good morning. The IHS figures are very helpful, so thank you for sharing that. I had a question on the three potential awards. Is there a way of characterizing those relative to the GM brand? In terms of size and scope would be helpful.
早安. IHS 的數據非常有幫助,所以感謝您的分享。我對三個潛在獎項有疑問。有沒有辦法描述與通用汽車品牌相關的特徵?在規模和範圍方面會有幫助。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yeah. I mean, I think in Toyota, it's no secret that right now we're only supplying one nameplate. So that's the smallest one. And then the award that we have here with the European -- on the commercial truck program is the second smallest and GM one makes up the lion's share of the near-term volume. However, the program in Europe with the commercial vehicle manufacturer, we actually already started delivering production parts to them, and that will ramp up significantly in 2024. And it'll make up a good portion of the run rate that we're currently seeing with GM.
是的。我的意思是,我認為在豐田,現在我們只提供一個銘牌已經不是什麼秘密了。所以這是最小的一個。然後,我們與歐洲在商用卡車項目上獲得的獎項是第二小的,而通用汽車則佔據了近期銷量的最大份額。然而,在歐洲與商用車製造商的項目中,我們實際上已經開始向他們提供生產零件,並且這一數量將在 2024 年大幅增加。這將占我們目前看到的運行率的很大一部分與通用汽車。
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
I was referring to the three potential awards that you are announcing before year end. Is there a way of dimensioning those?
我指的是你們在年底前宣布的三個潛在獎項。有沒有辦法確定這些尺寸?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
You mean the next (technical difficulty) yeah, I mean, there's some pretty big ones. I mean --
你的意思是下一個(技術難度)是的,我的意思是,有一些相當大的困難。我是說 -
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Yeah, the way I would say, Jeff, I think again, just -- I would say that we're very focused. We have a strong team in Europe. And we believe that even with significant growth from General Motors and additional North American wins, there's a reasonable chance that Europe could be our largest market in three to five years. And so a lot of success where we're anticipating here in the near term, I think supports that or gets that process started in a pretty significant way.
是的,我會說,傑夫,我再想一下,只是 - 我會說我們非常專注。我們在歐洲有一支強大的團隊。我們相信,即使通用汽車實現了顯著增長,並且在北美取得了額外的勝利,歐洲也有可能在三到五年內成為我們最大的市場。因此,我們預計在短期內會取得很多成功,我認為這支持了這一點,或者以一種非常重要的方式啟動了這一過程。
So General Motors is obviously right in front of us and are very large numbers. But we're really working hard to create diversity of OEMs and geographies, and we think we're doing a pretty good job of that. So I think we'll be able to answer that question a little better as we end this year and enter 2024.
因此,通用汽車顯然就在我們面前,而且數量非常大。但我們確實在努力創造原始設備製造商和地區的多樣性,我們認為我們在這方面做得相當不錯。因此,我認為,隨著今年年底進入 2024 年,我們將能夠更好地回答這個問題。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yeah. One key thing to keep in mind when thinking about the sizing of these European programs, is that they're all for prismatic cells. And so the content per vehicle opportunity is lower. But at the same time, the process to manufacture those parts is a lot more streamlined and we think we can ramp that up faster than some of the current designs that we're supplying.
是的。在考慮這些歐洲項目的規模時要記住的一件關鍵事情是,它們都是針對棱柱形電池的。因此,每輛車機會的內容較低。但與此同時,製造這些零件的過程更加簡化,我們認為我們可以比我們當前提供的一些設計更快地提高速度。
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
That's helpful. And maybe just one follow-up. You mentioned a few of those, maybe all three would start in '24, but really ramped in '25. So keeping in mind the fourth quarter, construction cadence to finish Georgia. And I think maybe you can update us, but I think it was $450 million bucks to do that. Would you need to sort of pull that trigger in the spring of '24 to start that process or how do we think about when Georgia -- if you were to win all three, when Georgia would have to commence the restart of construction?
這很有幫助。也許只是一個後續行動。你提到了其中的一些,也許所有這三個都會在 24 年開始,但真正在 25 年開始加速。因此,請記住第四季度,完成格魯吉亞的施工節奏。我想也許你可以告訴我們最新情況,但我認為這樣做需要 4.5 億美元。你是否需要在 24 年春天扣動扳機來啟動這一進程,或者我們如何考慮佐治亞州——如果你要贏得這三個勝利,佐治亞州何時必須開始重新啟動建設?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
We don't think we need to do it that early next year. It really depends more on General Motors, frankly, than these other customers. That's the other benefit of supplying prismatic cell programs that the material tends to be thinner. And so we could -- actually, our capacity on the $400 million would be significantly higher. We're supporting mostly prismatic cell programs that are thinner. So I think we have actually more time to make the decision, and what would actually force a decision to pull ahead, the plant would be GM's acceleration of demand.
我們認為我們不需要明年初那麼做。坦率地說,這確實更多地取決於通用汽車,而不是其他客戶。這是提供棱柱形電池方案的另一個好處,即材料往往更薄。因此,實際上,我們 4 億美元的產能將顯著提高。我們主要支持更薄的棱柱形電池項目。所以我認為我們實際上有更多的時間來做出決定,而真正迫使決定提前的因素是通用汽車對需求的加速。
Operator
Operator
George Gianarikas, Canaccord Genuity.
喬治·賈納里卡斯 (George Gianarikas),Canaccord Genuity。
George Gianarikas - Analyst
George Gianarikas - Analyst
Good morning and thanks for taking my questions. So just to focus on the three OEMs again, can you just talk about the process that you've gone through and what has the bake-off look like? Who are you competing against? What are the requirements that they need? I'm just kind of curious, if you give us any more detail as to what that process look like. Thank you.
早上好,感謝您提出我的問題。那麼,再次關注這三個原始設備製造商,您能談談你們所經歷的過程以及烘烤情況如何嗎?你在和誰競爭?他們需要什麼要求?我只是有點好奇,如果您能向我們提供有關該過程的更多詳細信息。謝謝。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yeah, I mean, George, the process is very similar amongst all of them. And I wish we had Corby, our Head of Sales, here with us to help us answer this one. But in essence, the questions that we used to get around, being compared with other materials like ceramic papers and mica sheets, we don't get that anymore.
是的,我的意思是,喬治,他們所有人的過程都非常相似。我希望我們的銷售主管 Corby 能和我們一起幫助我們回答這個問題。但本質上,我們過去常常迴避的問題,與陶瓷紙和雲母片等其他材料相比,我們不再明白了。
We're being able to leverage a lot of the data that the team has developed over the past year with customers demonstrating that we really are the only solution for solving the main three requirements that they're looking for. They're looking for thermal isolation. In essence, the thinnest and lightest envelope possible. They're looking for fire protection.
我們能夠利用團隊在過去一年中開發的大量數據,向客戶證明我們確實是解決他們正在尋找的三個主要需求的唯一解決方案。他們正在尋找隔熱措施。本質上,是盡可能最薄、最輕的信封。他們正在尋找防火措施。
And most importantly and the one that all of our quote unquote, aspirational competitors, miss is this requirement around the mechanical properties of the material, where an essence of a spring inside of the battery in between every single cell.
最重要的是,我們所有雄心勃勃的競爭對手都忽略了這一對材料機械性能的要求,其中電池內部每個電池之間都有一個彈簧。
And so it's less about demonstrating the performance now. And it's actually about just coming up with a design that will fit designs that in many ways, are already in flight and in progress. This idea of solving for thermal runaway is new at some of these OEMs. And so we have to bring them up to speed on -- actually on these requirements in many ways. And then it's really, I think the tallest pole in the tent is their design timeline for making PyroThin fit within their designs.
所以現在不再是展示性能了。實際上,這只是想出一種設計,該設計在很多方面都適合已經在飛行和正在進行的設計。這種解決熱失控的想法對於其中一些原始設備製造商來說是新的。因此,我們必須讓他們在很多方面實際上了解這些要求。然後,我真的認為帳篷中最高的桿子是他們的設計時間表,使 PyroThin 適合他們的設計。
And then a lot of the programs that we have quoted also have to go through their own approvals inside of the OEMs to get capital that enables the supply teams to source us. And that's a drawn-out process depending on the OEM. Very few OEMs have the same approach that GM took of going all in on a new battery platform that will underpin vehicles that haven't even been announced or thought of inside of General Motors.
然後,我們引用的許多計劃還必須經過原始設備製造商內部的批准,以獲得資金,使供應團隊能夠向我們採購。這是一個漫長的過程,具體取決於 OEM。很少有原始設備製造商採取與通用汽車相同的方法,全力開發新的電池平台,該平台將支撐通用汽車內部尚未宣布或考慮的車輛。
Instead, it's more of a nameplate by nameplate, application by application, exercise that the team is going through. But again, I think we -- it's not really a bake off now. It's really more of an engineering and development exercise to develop the battery pack that delivers the vehicle requirements safely with our product in it.
相反,它更像是一個接一個的銘牌、一個接一個的應用程序、團隊正在經歷的練習。但我再次強調,我們——現在並不是真正的烘烤。開發電池組實際上更多的是一項工程和開發工作,該電池組可以安全地滿足車輛對我們產品的要求。
And that takes a while, right? I mean, for us in Europe right now, we're starting August. So that works against us with all of Europe taking August off. But we feel pretty confident around the volume of prototype orders that we're getting from these customers, the engagement that they're having. And the discussions are becoming more strategic in nature, particularly with OEM groups that have multiple brands, but don't quite have this sort of single platform approach that General Motors has.
這需要一段時間,對吧?我的意思是,對於我們現在在歐洲的人來說,我們從八月開始。因此,整個歐洲都在八月休假,這對我們不利。但我們對從這些客戶那裡獲得的原型訂單量以及他們的參與度非常有信心。而且討論本質上變得更具戰略性,特別是對於擁有多個品牌但不完全採用通用汽車所採用的單一平台方法的 OEM 集團。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Yeah. George, I would just add, and I really do agree with Ricardo, the images of fitting into their platform ideas. One other thing that's really helping I think significant is we're a lot better, too. We have really come to understand the challenges around that mitigation of thermal runaway, but also of the sort of the mechanical test as well.
是的。喬治,我想補充一點,我真的同意里卡多的觀點,即融入他們平台理念的圖像。我認為真正有幫助的另一件事是我們也變得更好了。我們已經真正了解了緩解熱失控以及機械測試方面的挑戰。
And so we bring a lot of expertise into these discussions and that expertise is increasing with every day that passes. So I do agree with Ricardo that the gating item tends to be at this point, more about their own battery design than a competitive bake off.
因此,我們在這些討論中引入了大量的專業知識,並且這些專業知識隨著時間的推移而不斷增加。因此,我確實同意里卡多的觀點,即門控項目往往在這一點上更多地是關於他們自己的電池設計,而不是競爭性的烘烤。
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
Jeffrey Osborne - Analyst
Thank you. And just as a follow up, just make sure I understood the range of outcomes to hit your guidance at the low end of the high end for GM. So you have this, on slide 7, 20,000 and 47,000 in Q4, thousands for GM. And I'm curious if hitting those numbers, did you say that would bring you to the high end of the range?
謝謝。作為後續行動,請確保我了解達到您對通用汽車高端指導的結果範圍。所以你可以在第 7 張幻燈片上看到,第四季度為 20,000 和 47,000,通用汽車為數千。我很好奇,如果達到這些數字,您是否說這會讓您達到該範圍的高端?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
I think, well, I mean, it depends on which numbers. So if we look at GM's current demand, which is a basically a 40-week expectation, we'd come in like well within the range. But that can always change. If we were to supply the IHS rate, I think we would totally come in above the range.
我想,嗯,我的意思是,這取決於哪些數字。因此,如果我們看看通用汽車當前的需求(基本上是 40 週的預期),我們就會很好地處於這個範圍內。但這總是可以改變的。如果我們提供 IHS 費率,我認為我們將完全高於該範圍。
At the same time, it's hard to tell how many parts GM still has in inventory. We don't have that communication back from them. And so as I mentioned in my remarks, right, I mean for us to come in on at $200 million of revenue this year, we would only need the run rate to increase by about 30% in the next two quarters over what we deliver to them in Q2. And that's -- I mean, I think that's a realistic expectation.
與此同時,很難判斷通用汽車還有多少零件庫存。我們沒有收到他們的回复。正如我在發言中提到的,我的意思是,如果我們今年的收入達到 2 億美元,我們只需要在接下來的兩個季度中將運行率比我們交付的目標提高約 30%他們在第二季度。那是——我的意思是,我認為這是一個現實的期望。
Operator
Operator
Chris Souther, B. Riley.
克里斯·索瑟,B.萊利。
Chris Souther - Analyst
Chris Souther - Analyst
Perfect. Maybe just a little bit on the puts and takes on the gross margins for PyroThin once the contract manufacturer comes online, does that change the breakeven point for PyroThin gross margins? Just curious if there's like a step down in those margins when that's all you're producing out of out of Rhode Island.
完美的。一旦合同製造商上線,PyroThin 的毛利率可能會稍微增加一點看跌期權和承付款項,這是否會改變 PyroThin 毛利率的盈虧平衡點?只是好奇當你在羅德島州生產的全部產品時,這些利潤是否會下降。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
No. I mean that breakeven point is really more driven by the assembly. And I mean, don't get me wrong, I think there's still efficiencies on making only PyroThin in Rhode Island. But I'd argue that all of those efficiencies are ending up more likely on the energy industrial side, given that a lot of the processes for the energy industrial side would be taken out of Rhode Island and not necessarily benefit on PyroThin.
不,我的意思是盈虧平衡點實際上更多地是由裝配驅動的。我的意思是,不要誤會我的意思,我認為在羅德島州只生產 PyroThin 仍然是有效率的。但我認為,所有這些效率最終更有可能出現在能源工業方面,因為能源工業方面的許多流程將被轉移到羅德島州之外,並且不一定會讓 PyroThin 受益。
Chris Souther - Analyst
Chris Souther - Analyst
Got it. Okay. And then just the last one to put a point on the EBITDA guidance. It seems to reflect kind of the low end of revenue range where GM kind of slips on the ramp. Where does that shake out if GM's ramp stays on their targeted schedule and you hit that positive EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Just what is kind of the upside there since it seems like you're kind of guiding people to the downside case?
知道了。好的。最後一個對 EBITDA 指導進行了闡述。這似乎反映了通用汽車在收入範圍的低端下滑的情況。如果通用汽車的產能增長保持在目標時間表上,並且您在第四季度實現了正的 EBITDA,那麼這種情況會發生什麼變化。既然你似乎在引導人們走向不利的情況,那麼那裡的好處是什麼?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yeah. I mean, I think there's definitely a probability of coming in on the high end of the range of profitability. If we have a good Q4 and if GM's demand ramp really starts in Q4, quite a bit of it would come at the expense of Q3. So I mean, I think the higher end of the guidance range reflects that. It reflects a good Q4, but not a great Q3, and that's how we see things potentially playing out here.
是的。我的意思是,我認為肯定有可能進入盈利範圍的高端。如果我們有一個良好的第四季度,並且如果通用汽車的需求增長真正在第四季度開始,那麼很大一部分將以犧牲第三季度為代價。所以我的意思是,我認為指導範圍的高端反映了這一點。它反映了第四季度的良好表現,但第三季度表現不佳,這就是我們對這裡可能發生的情況的看法。
Operator
Operator
Thomas Curran, Seaport.
托馬斯·柯蘭,海港。
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Good morning, guys. Just going to kind of add some cleanup here on the three automotive OEMs that you're in the most advanced stage of business development with and optimistic about potentially converting into significant EV TB customers. Just could you confirm that are all three of those European OEMs, and then are each of the three distinct automotive groups or are any of them separate brands, but subsidiaries of the same automotive group?
早上好傢伙。只是要對三個汽車原始設備製造商進行一些清理,您正處於業務發展的最高級階段,並且對可能轉化為重要的 EV TB 客戶持樂觀態度。您能否確認這三個都是歐洲原始設備製造商,然後是三個不同的汽車集團中的每一個,還是其中任何一個是獨立的品牌,但屬於同一汽車集團的子公司?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
It looks like you have a bingo board there.
看起來你那裡有一個賓果遊戲板。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Yeah. Some are part of a group and some are separate or independent.
是的。有些是團體的一部分,有些是單獨的或獨立的。
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Okay. And all European?
好的。而且都是歐洲人?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yes.
是的。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Yes.
是的。
Eric Stine - Analyst
Eric Stine - Analyst
Great. And then just for my second here that's left. Actually, my first call question on the energy industrial side in a while. But for that division's LNG market, could you update us on what LNG sales should account for as a percentage of EI revenue this year? Are you also producing Cryogel product for LNG customers out of Mexico now as well? And are you currently pursuing any visible large LNG projects, by which I mean opportunities that could result in awards comparable in size to the PTT Nong Fab receiving terminal contract that you won and delivered over 2019, 2020?
偉大的。然後就剩下我的第二次了。事實上,這是我一段時間以來第一次就能源工業方面提出的問題。但對於該部門的液化天然氣市場,您能否向我們介紹今年液化天然氣銷售額應佔 EI 收入的百分比?您現在也為墨西哥以外的液化天然氣客戶生產 Cryogel 產品嗎?您目前是否正在尋求任何可見的大型液化天然氣項目,我的意思是可能獲得與您在 2019 年和 2020 年贏得併交付的 PTT Nong Fab 接收終端合同相當規模的獎項的機會?
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Let me peel that back a little bit up. I might start with the latter part and remind me if I missed the beginning part. We are pursuing several of the LNG projects that are on the drawing board. I mean, well along, frankly, on the drawing board where we have worked our way into the specifications of these projects. Not all of them, of course, are the size of the PTT project, which was about $45 million. But they are significant orders.
讓我把它稍微剝開一點。我可能會從後半部分開始,如果我錯過了前半部分,我會提醒我。我們正在推進幾個正在籌劃中的液化天然氣項目。我的意思是,坦率地說,我們已經在繪圖板上製定了這些項目的規範。當然,並非所有項目的規模都達到 PTT 項目的規模,該項目耗資約 4500 萬美元。但它們是重要的訂單。
PTT, of course, is also expanding their facility with another receiving line as well, and we're working hard to participate in that. And we performed extremely well on the earlier projects. So we think we're in a strong position there. We are first focused on the supplemental supply agreement around our Pyrogel product, which is the lion's share of our revenue in the energy industrial area in the range of three quarters. And we will move to qualifying our Cryogel products next with the supplemental supplier.
當然,PTT 也在擴大他們的設施,增加另一條接收線,我們正在努力參與其中。我們在早期的項目中表現得非常好。所以我們認為我們在這方面處於有利地位。我們首先關注的是圍繞 Pyrogel 產品的補充供應協議,該產品占我們四分之三能源工業領域收入的最大份額。接下來我們將與補充供應商一起對我們的 Cryogel 產品進行資格認證。
And that breakdown is roughly three-quarters on the hot side and the remaining amount on the cryogenic cold side of the slate. So yeah, we're good at this business, Thomas, as I think you know. And it was one of the reasons why it was so important for us to do the supplemental supply. We would have been severely capacity constrained in that business. And there's no question that we would have had demand destruction had we not thought through and anticipated that the EV business growing as it is and consuming Plant I.
大約四分之三的分解發生在板岩的熱側,其餘部分發生在板岩的低溫冷側。所以,是的,我們很擅長這個行業,托馬斯,我想你也知道。這也是我們補充供應如此重要的原因之一。我們在該業務中的產能將受到嚴重限制。毫無疑問,如果我們沒有深思熟慮並預期電動汽車業務會按現狀增長並消耗一號工廠,那麼我們的需求就會受到破壞。
So anyway, it's a really important part of our strategy, and we think we'll provide excellent service. A lot of that business is in Asia and to serve it from Asia, again, makes a ton of sense for us, both from a customer service point of view and from an economics point of view.
所以無論如何,這是我們戰略的一個非常重要的部分,我們認為我們將提供優質的服務。很多業務都在亞洲,無論從客戶服務的角度還是從經濟的角度來看,從亞洲提供服務對我們來說都意義重大。
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
I think there was also a question there on Cryogel in Mexico. And so Tom, maybe just to clarify, so Cryogel -- for Cryogel, we're still selling just aerogel insulation roles that come out of Rhode Island. It's our subsea products that are being with the -- those roles basically go through an additional process of being put inside of bags or they get encapsulated. That cutting and encapsulation is what is happening in Mexico for subsea projects, not for Cryogel.
我認為墨西哥也有一個關於 Cryogel 的問題。湯姆,也許只是為了澄清一下,所以 Cryogel——對於 Cryogel,我們仍然只銷售來自羅德島州的氣凝膠絕緣角色。我們的海底產品基本上要經歷一個額外的過程,即被放入袋子內或被封裝起來。這種切割和封裝是墨西哥海底項目正在發生的事情,而不是 Cryogel 的情況。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Thomas (technical difficulty) no, no. I was just going to say, I know you're kind of a reformed oil and gas guy. And so I would just say, certainly it's really interesting to us. We're seeing a tremendous amount of activity in our subsea business as well, which is (technical difficulty) we've been a little surprised by. But we've won a series of projects that extend well into 2024. So again, supporting that business I think very well.
托馬斯(技術難度)不,不。我只是想說,我知道你是一個改過自新的石油和天然氣人。所以我想說,這對我們來說確實很有趣。我們的海底業務也有大量活動,這(技術難度)讓我們感到有點驚訝。但我們已經贏得了一系列項目,這些項目將持續到 2024 年。因此,我再次認為支持該業務非常好。
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Thomas Curran - Analyst
Great. Just to wrap this up then, could you just provide us with rough estimates for LNG and subsea respectively as percentages of EI revenue?
偉大的。總結一下,您能否向我們提供液化天然氣和海底天然氣分別佔 EI 收入百分比的粗略估計?
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
I like the 75%, 25% to the Pyrogel side.
我喜歡 Pyrogel 方面的 75%、25%。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Amit Dayal, H.C. Wainwright.
(操作員說明)Amit Dayal, H.C.溫賴特。
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Amit Dayal - Analyst
Good morning, guys. Most of my questions have been addressed already. I won't take too much of anyone's time now. Just on the competitive side, are you seeing any other competitive solutions coming up through the thermal barrier product offering?
早上好傢伙。我的大部分問題已經得到解決。我現在不會佔用任何人太多時間。就競爭而言,您是否看到通過熱障產品提供任何其他有競爭力的解決方案?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
No. I mean, we see websites and kind of press releases being put out. But we don't see them gaining traction within the commercial processes that the team is engaged in.
不,我的意思是,我們看到網站和各種新聞稿的發布。但我們沒有看到他們在團隊參與的商業流程中獲得關注。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
It is a hard problem to solve, and it's a multidimensional problem to solve. Occasionally, we'll see something that addresses part of the problem, but to have a -- to address all dimensions of the problem, it's very difficult. And I think that's the importance of our product and the work that our team has done in optimizing around that multidimensional challenge.
這是一個很難解決的問題,而且是一個需要解決的多維度問題。有時,我們會看到一些解決部分問題的方法,但是要解決問題的所有方面,這是非常困難的。我認為這就是我們的產品以及我們的團隊在圍繞多維挑戰進行優化方面所做的工作的重要性。
Operator
Operator
Colin Rusch, Oppenheimer.
科林·魯施,奧本海默。
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Colin Rusch - Analyst
Thanks so much, guys. Our checks suggest that some of the mechanical properties that you guys offer are critically important to the win rate here. Can you talk about what you're seeing at this point around the leverage from those mechanical properties, particularly as we get into structural battery packs becoming more prevalent outside just [Tesla]?
非常感謝,伙計們。我們的檢查表明,你們提供的一些機械特性對於這裡的勝率至關重要。您能否談談您目前所看到的關於這些機械性能的影響,特別是當我們進入結構電池組在[特斯拉]之外變得更加普遍時?
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Ricardo Rodriguez - CFO & Treasurer
Yeah. I mean, I think the mechanical element just continues becoming more important. I mean, and a lot of the structural battery packs, now they're going to have crash requirements put in as well. And so we think that will yield to just more complex parts overall.
是的。我的意思是,我認為機械元素正變得越來越重要。我的意思是,許多結構電池組現在也將加入碰撞要求。因此,我們認為這將產生整體上更複雜的部件。
And it's really interesting how everybody has to optimize for not just these mechanical elements and the structural integrity of the pack itself. But now also, there's this element of ease of assembly and particularly cost. And a lot of these ancillary things to the cells were not considered I'd say the prior generation of EVs. And now as we're seeing it, it's become a meaningful element of the design of the pack itself and its cost.
非常有趣的是,每個人不僅要優化這些機械元件,還要優化包裝本身的結構完整性。但現在還存在易於組裝的因素,尤其是成本。我想說的是上一代電動汽車沒有考慮到電池的許多輔助部件。現在,正如我們所看到的,它已成為包裝本身設計及其成本的一個有意義的元素。
But I mean, as packs get more structurally focused, I think we have plenty of room in there even for LFP cells. And a lot of the structural packs are actually LFP cell packs.
但我的意思是,隨著電池組的結構變得更加集中,我認為即使是 LFP 電池,我們也有足夠的空間。而且很多結構電池組實際上是磷酸鐵鋰電池組。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
I think, Colin, also on -- so the economics of it on the mechanical side are interesting as well, in the sense that as we optimize our material to do not only the thermal, but the mechanical, we have an opportunity to displace some existing materials. And in some cases, quite costly, expensive materials. And it helps our value proposition as we try to have the best possible solution.
我認為,科林,在機械方面的經濟性也很有趣,因為當我們優化我們的材料不僅可以實現熱性能,還可以實現機械性能時,我們有機會取代一些現有材料。在某些情況下,材料非常昂貴。當我們嘗試獲得最佳解決方案時,它有助於我們的價值主張。
And I think, certain OEMs started with the mechanical stability, if you will, of the inserts and have come to the thermal part of it or are coming to the thermal part of it later. And so again, having a concept around displacing some of the existing materials that are sold to cell has been a really important part of our strategy, and it's been a nice economic opportunity for us as well.
我認為,某些原始設備製造商(OEM)從插入件的機械穩定性(如果你願意的話)開始,並且已經進入了它的熱部分,或者稍後會進入它的熱部分。再說一次,圍繞取代一些出售給電池的現有材料的概念一直是我們戰略的一個非常重要的部分,這對我們來說也是一個很好的經濟機會。
Operator
Operator
I will now turn the call over to CEO, Don Young, for closing remarks.
現在,我將把電話轉交給首席執行官唐·楊 (Don Young),他將致閉幕詞。
Don Young - President & CEO
Don Young - President & CEO
Thank you, Henry. We appreciate everyone's interest in Aspen Aerogels, and we look forward to reporting our third-quarter 2023 results to you later in the year. Be well and have a good day. Thanks so much.
謝謝你,亨利。我們感謝大家對 Aspen Aerogels 的興趣,我們期待在今年晚些時候向您報告 2023 年第三季度的業績。祝你身體健康,祝你有美好的一天。非常感謝。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.
女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開連接。