(ASO) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Academy Sports and Outdoors Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Results Conference Call. At this time, this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加學院體育與戶外 2023 財年第三季業績電話會議。此時，該通話正在錄音中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Matt Hodges, Vice President of Investor Relations for Academy Sports and Outdoors. Matt, please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給主持人、學院體育和戶外投資者關係副總裁 Matt Hodges。馬特，請繼續。

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining the Academy Sports and Outdoors third quarter 2023 financial results call. Participating on the call are Steve Lawrence, Chief Executive Officer; Carl Ford, Chief Financial Officer.

大家，早安。感謝您參加學院體育與戶外運動 2023 年第三季財務績效電話會議。執行長 Steve Lawrence 參加了電話會議；卡爾福特，財務長。

As a reminder, statements in today's earnings release and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements.

提醒一下，今天的收益發布中的聲明以及管理層在本次電話會議中發表的評論可能被視為前瞻性聲明。這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期和預測有重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於收益報告和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中確定的因素。該公司不承擔修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release, which is available at investors.academy.com.

今天的言論也提到了某些非公認會計準則財務指標。今天的收益報告中包含了與最具可比性的公認會計原則（GAAP）衡量標準的對賬，該報告可在 Investors.academy.com 上取得。

I will now turn the call over to Steve Lawrence for his remarks. Steve?

現在我將把電話轉給史蒂夫勞倫斯聽他的演講。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Matt. Good morning, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter earnings call. As you saw from the results we announced earlier this morning, we had a challenging quarter with sales coming in at $1.4 billion, which was down 6.4% in total and translated into a negative 8% comp. Based on these sales, adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter was $1.38.

謝謝，馬特。早安，感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。正如您從我們今天早上早些時候公佈的業績中看到的，我們度過了一個充滿挑戰的季度，銷售額為 14 億美元，總計下降 6.4%，同比下降 8%。根據這些銷售額，第三季調整後每股收益為 1.38 美元。

Now, one of the key themes we saw emerge in the first half of the year carried through into Q3. The customer is clearly under pressure and is being careful about when they decide to shop and how they want to spend their money. We've also seen a continuation of the trend with customers coming in during the key shopping moments on the calendar and then retreating during the lulls. Another key theme continues to be customers looking to expand their buying power by focusing on the value offerings in our assortment such as our private brand merchandise, the promotions that we run, or in clearance events that take place at the end of each season. Similar to prior quarters this year, we also continued to see customers gravity towards new and innovative brands and items in our stores and online.

現在，我們看到上半年出現的關鍵主題之一一直延續到第三季。顧客顯然面臨著壓力，並且在決定購物以及如何花錢時非常謹慎。我們也看到這種趨勢的延續，顧客在日曆上的關鍵購物時刻湧入，然後在淡季期間撤退。另一個關鍵主題仍然是客戶希望透過專注於我們產品中的價值產品來擴大購買力，例如我們的自有品牌商品、我們開展的促銷活動或每個季節結束時舉行的清倉活動。與今年前幾季類似，我們也繼續看到客戶對我們商店和網路上的新的創新品牌和商品的吸引力。

Breaking the quarter down by month, August sales were down mid-single digits. As we discussed on our Q2 call, we saw good momentum early in the month, driven by our back to school business. Once we got past Labor Day and into September, we saw a slowdown in sales that lasted the entire month, resulting in a low-double digit negative comp. We attribute the softness in September to the lack of a natural shopping event on the calendar, coupled with much warmer than average temperatures, which suppressed early sales on fall seasonal categories. This trend carried forward into early October, but we did see an uptick in sales later in the month that we believe was driven by a combination of some cooler temperatures, coupled with increased sales in our outdoor business. The end result was that we saw sales improvement versus the September trend, with October coming in at a negative mid-single digit comp.

按季度細分，八月份的銷售額下降了個位數左右。正如我們在第二季電話會議上討論的那樣，在返校業務的推動下，我們在本月初看到了良好的勢頭。一旦我們過了勞動節並進入九月，我們就看到整個月的銷售放緩，導致低兩位數的負補償。我們將 9 月的疲軟歸因於日曆上缺乏自然購物活動，加上氣溫遠高於平均水平，抑制了秋季季節性類別的早期銷售。這種趨勢一直持續到十月初，但我們確實看到本月晚些時候的銷售額有所上升，我們認為這是由於氣溫較低以及我們戶外業務銷售額的增加共同推動的。最終結果是，與 9 月的趨勢相比，我們看到銷售額有所改善，而 10 月的銷售額為負中個位數。

Looking at the results by division, our best performing business for Q3, sports and rec, which ran a 2.7% decrease. Declines in fitness and bikes were partially offset by continued strength in outdoor cooking and furniture, as well as our team sports business. Our outdoor division ran down 6.9% for the quarter. But as I mentioned earlier, we saw this business pick up towards the end of October as we approached hunting season, started to lap softer comps from last year. Our apparel and footwear businesses started out strong during back to school, but then tapered off as we moved into September. Apparel ran a 6.9% decrease for the quarter but slightly better than footwear, which was down 8.2%. We believe the primary driver of the soft business was caused by the above-average temperatures we experienced in September and early October, which tamped down demand for (inaudible) items.

從部門劃分的結果來看，我們第三季表現最好的業務是體育和休閒業務，下降了 2.7%。健身和自行車業務的下滑被戶外烹飪和家具以及團隊運動業務的持續強勁所部分抵消。我們的戶外部門本季下降了 6.9%。但正如我之前提到的，隨著狩獵季節的臨近，我們看到這項業務在 10 月底有所回升，並開始比去年更加疲軟。我們的服裝和鞋類業務在返校期間一開始表現強勁，但隨著進入 9 月而逐漸放緩。服裝本季下降 6.9%，但略好於鞋類，後者下降 8.2%。我們認為，軟性業務的主要驅動力是由我們在 9 月和 10 月初經歷的高於平均水平的氣溫所造成的，這抑制了對（聽不清楚）商品的需求。

Moving to gross margin, quarter came in at 34.5%, which was a 50 basis point erosion versus prior year. This was primarily driven by our merchandise margin coming in 49 basis points below last year. We believe that the warmer temperatures we experienced during the quarter resulted in softer sales versus last year in the high-margin fall seasonal products. Customers instead gravitated towards the lower-margin summer clearance, which mixed our margin down. Promotional activity for the quarter was in line with our expectations. And our gross margin rate through three quarters sits at 34.7%, which is above our annual guidance, continues to remain roughly 500 basis points above our pre-pandemic levels.

至於毛利率，本季毛利率為 34.5%，較上年下降 50 個基點。這主要是因為我們的商品利潤率比去年低了 49 個基點。我們認為，本季氣溫升高導致高利潤秋季季節性產品的銷售較去年疲軟。相反，客戶傾向於利潤率較低的夏季清倉，這導致我們的利潤率下降。本季的促銷活動符合我們的預期。我們三個季度的毛利率為 34.7%，高於我們的年度指導，並繼續比大流行前的水平高出約 500 個基點。

Now, I'd like to give you a couple of updates on our progress against some of our long range plan initiatives, starting with new stores. During the third quarter, we opened 5 new stores with locations in Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Texas. During November, we opened up our final 7 stores for the year, bringing our total to 14 for 2023. November openings represent the largest number of new stores that we've ever opened in a single month, with 5 on a single weekend. This is a huge accomplishment for our company, and I want to take a moment to recognize all of our team members that help make this possible. As we open new locations, we continue to gain insights into what factors ensure a successful launch of a new store or getting better with each grand opening. While the sample size is still small, as we analyze and learn more from our new store openings, what is becoming clearer is that stores open in legacy markets where we have a high brand awareness, as a group, are on track to meet or surpass [their own] sales targets.

現在，我想向您介紹我們的一些長期計劃舉措的最新進展，從新店開始。第三季度，我們在維吉尼亞州、印第安納州、密蘇裡州和德克薩斯州開設了 5 家新店。 11 月份，我們開設了今年最後 7 家門市，使 2023 年的門市總數達到 14 家。11 月份的新店開業數量是我們單月開設新店數量最多的，單一週末就有 5 家。這對我們公司來說是一項巨大的成就，我想花點時間向所有幫助實現這一目標的團隊成員表示認可。當我們開設新店時，我們會不斷深入了解哪些因素可以確保新店的成功開幕或每次盛大開幕都變得更好。雖然樣本量仍然很小，但隨著我們從新店開業中分析和了解更多信息，越來越清楚的是，在我們擁有較高品牌知名度的傳統市場中開設的商店，作為一個整體，有望達到或超越[他們自己的]銷售目標。

What has also started to become apparent is that stores open in newer markets outside our current footprint will need additional time and investment to build brand awareness and therefore will likely take longer to ramp sales maturity. After we get through this year, we'll have more data on the sales ramp of the stores that opened up in 2022, as well as additional data on traffic, ticket and conversion from both the '22 and the 2023 stores will be used to refine our expectations for future store openings. As we look forward, we're excited about the pipeline that we've identified. We'll have good guidance around the number of new stores that we plan to open in 2024 during our next earnings call.

同樣開始變得明顯的是，在我們目前足跡之外的新市場開設的商店將需要額外的時間和投資來建立品牌知名度，因此可能需要更長的時間才能提高銷售成熟度。今年結束後，我們將獲得更多關於 2022 年開設的商店的銷售成長數據，以及來自 22 年和 2023 年商店的流量、門票和轉換率的其他數據，這些數據將用於完善我們對未來開店的預期。展望未來，我們對已確定的管道感到興奮。在下一次財報電話會議上，我們將就計劃在 2024 年開設的新店數量提供良好的指導。

Another one of our growth initiatives is to accelerate the growth of our dot-com business. While this channel has faced the similar challenges that our brick and mortar customers feeling this year, we've made some meaningful advancements in the third quarter that we believe will help drive growth in the future. During last quarter's earnings call, we announced our new partnership with Fanatics. While it is early days, we've dramatically expanded our offering in NCAA with this partnership, offering over 2x the number of styles to our customers we started the quarter with just in time for the holiday gift giving season. We will continue to leverage their extensive catalog and add more SKUs as we start each league's new season. Over time, our online offerings [will be] significantly larger, allowing us to greatly expand our reach and [help best] service a much wider fan base.

我們的另一個成長舉措是加速我們的網路業務的成長。儘管該通路今年面臨與我們的實體客戶所感受到的類似挑戰，但我們在第三季取得了一些有意義的進步，我們相信這將有助於推動未來的成長。在上季的財報電話會議上，我們宣布與 Fanatics 建立新的合作關係。雖然現在還處於早期階段，但透過這種合作關係，我們已經大大擴展了我們在NCAA 的產品範圍，為客戶提供的款式數量是本季度開始時的兩倍以上，正好趕上節日禮物贈送季。當我們開始每個聯盟的新賽季時，我們將繼續利用他們廣泛的目錄並添加更多 SKU。隨著時間的推移，我們的線上產品[將]顯著擴大，使我們能夠極大地擴大我們的覆蓋範圍並[幫助最好]為更廣泛的粉絲群提供服務。

In addition to SKU growth, we've also been working hard on expanded functionality such as adding Sezzle, a new [paying for] option that supports additional categories such as hunting. As we head into the holidays, we believe with this expanded assortment and additional capabilities that we're well positioned to capture the surge in demand from all the key online shopping events, including Cyber Week and Green Monday.

除了 SKU 成長之外，我們還一直在努力擴展功能，例如添加 Sezzle，這是一種支援狩獵等其他類別的新[付費]選項。隨著假期的臨近，我們相信，憑藉擴大的品種和額外的功能，我們能夠很好地抓住所有主要在線購物活動（包括網絡周和綠色星期一）帶來的需求激增。

The third initiative that I'd like to update you on is our new customer data platform. During our last call, we discussed adding this new tool to our toolbox at the end of Q2. Q2. Team has spent the last quarter fine-tuning our customer segmentation work, along with developing playbooks to help drive greater traffic and increase spend from our various customer segments. We have 2 main focuses in our CDP work, improving customer identification and increasing engagement, both of which will help us build a deeper connection with our customers and drive incremental sales revenue. While we've just begun to leverage some of our new capabilities for this tool, our initial marketing tests have yielded promising results. First test was to grow our addressable customer file in order to help expand the reach of our various marketing channels. During Q3, we [monitored] a reactivation campaign that helped us increase the number of customers reaching with our emails by 25%.

我想向您介紹的第三項舉措是我們新的客戶數據平台。在上次通話中，我們討論了在第二季末將這個新工具添加到我們的工具箱中。 Q2。團隊在上個季度對我們的客戶細分工作進行了微調，同時開發了手冊，以幫助推動更大的流量並增加各個客戶細分的支出。我們的 CDP 工作有兩個主要重點，即提高客戶識別度和提高參與度，這兩者都將幫助我們與客戶建立更深入的聯繫並推動銷售收入的增量。雖然我們剛開始利用該工具的一些新功能，但我們最初的行銷測試已經取得了可喜的結果。第一個測試是擴大我們的可尋址客戶檔案，以幫助擴大我們各種行銷管道的覆蓋範圍。在第三季度，我們[監控]了一項重新激活活動，該活動幫助我們將透過電子郵件聯繫的客戶數量增加了 25%。

Another example of how we're leveraging our customer data platform, the small tests that we ran with a focus on increasing both frequency of shop and spend with a subset of our best customers. We sent targeted offers to this group, managed to drive an incremental trip at a higher basket size. What was exciting about this use case was that we saw continued growth with this group after the initial discount we offered [at lapse]. While we don't expect all the tests we're running to have a huge impact on core results, we do believe that we'll be able to start scaling these learnings and they will start moving the needle in 2024 and beyond.

我們如何利用客戶數據平台的另一個例子是，我們進行了一些小型測試，重點是提高部分最佳客戶的購物頻率和消費頻率。我們向該群體發送了有針對性的優惠，成功地以更高的購物籃規模推動了增量旅行。這個用例令人興奮的是，在我們[失效]提供最初的折扣後，我們看到這個群體的持續成長。雖然我們並不期望我們正在運行的所有測試都會對核心結果產生巨大影響，但我們確實相信我們將能夠開始擴展這些學習成果，並且它們將在 2024 年及以後開始取得進展。

The final initiative I'll touch on is the work we're doing around improving our supply chain. The team has been working hard on getting ready to install and roll out our new warehouse management system, planning to go live with our Georgia DC in the spring of next year. This implementation is a key enabler of many of the supply chain efficiencies that we're anticipating in our long range plan as we continue to open new stores.

我要談的最後一項措施是我們圍繞改善供應鏈所做的工作。團隊一直在努力準備安裝和推出我們的新倉庫管理系統，並計劃於明年春天在我們的喬治亞特區上線。隨著我們繼續開設新店，這項實施是我們在長期計劃中預期的許多供應鏈效率的關鍵推動因素。

Now, I'd like to turn it over to Carl Ford, our CFO, who will walk you through a deeper dive of our Q3 financial performance, along with an update for 2023 guidance. Carl?

現在，我想將其交給我們的財務長卡爾福特，他將帶您深入了解我們第三季的財務業績，以及 2023 年指導的更新。卡爾？

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining the call. Let me walk you through the details of our third quarter results. Net sales were $1.4 billion, a 6.4% decline compared to the third quarter of 2022, with comparable sales of negative 8%. The decline in sales was driven by an 8.1% decline in transactions, partially offset by a slight increase in ticket size. Consistent with overall sales performance, we experienced pressure in our e-commerce channel. E-commerce sales represented 9.4% of total merchandise sales, compared to 9.5% in the prior year quarter.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。大家，早安。我們感謝您加入此通話。讓我向您介紹我們第三季業績的詳細資訊。淨銷售額為 14 億美元，較 2022 年第三季下降 6.4%，可比銷售額負 8%。銷售額下降的原因是交易量下降 8.1%，但門票規模的小幅成長部分抵消了下降。與整體銷售業績一致，我們的電子商務通路也面臨壓力。電子商務銷售額佔商品總銷售額的 9.4%，去年同期為 9.5%。

As Steve mentioned, our gross margin rate for the third quarter was 34.5%, compared to 35.0% last year. The margin decline was due to a 49 basis point decline in merchandise margins, driven by an increase in planned promotions and a higher mix of clearance sales. Higher overhead costs, lower vendor allowances and a slight increase in shrink were offset with freight savings. As a company, we continue to operate at substantially higher gross margin rates than pre-pandemic, demonstrating that the operational changes made to the business over the past few years are structural.

正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們第三季的毛利率為 34.5%，而去年為 35.0%。利潤率下降的原因是商品利潤率下降了 49 個基點，這是由於計劃中的促銷活動增加和清倉銷售組合增加所致。較高的間接費用、較低的供應商津貼和損耗的輕微增加被運費節省所抵銷。作為一家公司，我們的毛利率繼續遠高於疫情前，這表明過去幾年對業務的營運變化是結構性的。

During the quarter, SG&A expenses were $345.9 million or 24.7% of net sales, an increase of 170 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. As consumer demand remains challenging, we are focused on optimizing profitability through expense control and investing in our future. We reduced our variable operating expenses versus last year, while more than 100% of the increase in SG&A was driven by the investments we are making in areas that support our long-term growth initiatives such as new stores, omnichannel, supply chain and customer data.

本季度，SG&A 費用為3.459 億美元，佔淨銷售額的24.7%，與2022 年第三季度相比增加了170 個基點。由於消費者需求仍然充滿挑戰，我們專注於透過費用控制和投資未來來優化獲利能力。與去年相比，我們減少了可變營運費用，而 SG&A 成長的 100% 以上是由我們在支持我們長期成長計畫的領域進行的投資推動的，例如新店、全通路、供應鏈和客戶數據。

Net income for the quarter was $100 million or 7.2% of net sales, resulting in GAAP diluted earnings per share of $1.31. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.38.

該季度淨利潤為 1 億美元，佔淨銷售額的 7.2%，GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 1.31 美元。調整後攤薄每股收益為 1.38 美元。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $275 million in cash and no outstanding borrowings on our $1 billion credit facility at the end of the quarter. Our inventory balance was $1.49 billion, which was flat compared to last year in both dollars and units. On a per store basis, units declined 4%. Heading into the remainder of the holiday season, we believe that our current assortment and level of inventory is appropriate to support the business.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至本季末，我們擁有 2.75 億美元現金，且 10 億美元信貸額度中沒有未償還借款。我們的庫存餘額為 14.9 億美元，無論是美元還是數量均與去年持平。以每家商店計算，銷量下降了 4%。進入假期季節的剩餘時間，我們相信我們目前的品種和庫存水平足以支持業務。

During the third quarter, Academy generated $57.5 million in net cash from operating activities. This is a 13% increase compared to last year. We continue to execute our capital allocation strategy by self-funding our growth initiatives and returning cash to shareholders. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 864,000 shares for $44 million and paid out $6.7 million in dividends. As of the end of the quarter, we had approximately $100 million available on the current share repurchase authorization. On November 29, 2023, the Board approved a dividend of $0.09 per share payable on January 10, 2024 to stockholders of record as of December 13, 2023.

第三季度，學院從經營活動中產生了 5,750 萬美元的淨現金。比去年增加了 13%。我們透過自籌資金和向股東返還現金來繼續執行我們的資本配置策略。本季度，我們以 4,400 萬美元回購了約 864,000 股股票，並支付了 670 萬美元的股息。截至本季末，我們目前的股票回購授權約為 1 億美元。 2023年11月29日，董事會批准於2024年1月10日向截至2023年12月13日在冊股東支付每股0.09美元的股利。

Demonstrating the commitment to our capital allocation strategy, the Board also approved a new 3-year $600 million share repurchase authorization. Together with our remaining $100 million, the company now has $700 million of share repurchase authorization available for the next 3 years. Year-to-date, the company has spent $152 million on capital expenditures. For the full year, we expect to spend between $175 million and $225 million.

董事會也批准了一項為期 3 年、價值 6 億美元的新股票回購授權，彰顯了我們對資本配置策略的承諾。加上我們剩餘的 1 億美元，該公司現在擁有未來 3 年 7 億美元的股票回購授權。今年迄今為止，該公司已花費 1.52 億美元的資本支出。我們預計全年支出為 1.75 億至 2.25 億美元。

Shifting now to guidance. Based on our year-to-date results and current expectations for the fourth quarter, we are narrowing our fiscal 2023 net sales guidance from the previous range of $6.17 billion to $6.36 billion to $6.10 billion to $6.17 billion. This translates to a revised comparable sales range of negative 7.5% to negative 6.5%. Our full year gross margin rate is expected to finish between 34.0% to 34.2%. GAAP income before taxes is now expected to range from $670 million to $680 million and GAAP net income between $520 million and $530 million. GAAP diluted earnings per share are now expected to be $6.70 per share to $6.85 per share and adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to range from $7.05 per share to $7.20 per share. We now expect to generate $300 million to $350 million of adjusted free cash flow in fiscal 2023. The earnings per share estimates are calculated on a share count of 77.3 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding for the full year and do not include any potential Q4 repurchase activity.

現在轉向指導。根據我們今年迄今的業績和目前對第四季的預期，我們將 2023 財年淨銷售額指引範圍從先前的 61.7 億美元至 63.6 億美元縮小到 61.0 億美元至 61.7 億美元。這意味著修正後的可比銷售額範圍為負 7.5% 至負 6.5%。我們預計全年毛利率將在34.0%至34.2%之間。目前，GAAP 稅前收入預計在 6.7 億美元至 6.8 億美元之間，GAAP 淨利潤在 5.2 億美元至 5.3 億美元之間。目前，GAAP 攤薄每股收益預計為每股 6.70 美元至 6.85 美元，調整後攤薄每股收益預計為每股 7.05 美元至 7.20 美元。我們現在預計2023 財年將產生3 億至3.5 億美元的調整後自由現金流。每股盈餘預估是根據全年已發行稀釋加權平均股數7,730 萬股計算的，不包括任何潛在的第四季度回購活動。

As far as providing guidance beyond fiscal 2023, we plan to give fiscal 2024 guidance in March on our year-end call.

至於提供 2023 財年之後的指引，我們計劃在 3 月的年終電話會議上提供 2024 財年指引。

I will now turn the call back over to Steve for some closing remarks. Steve?

現在我將把電話轉回給史蒂夫，讓他發表一些結束語。史蒂夫？

As you can tell from our commentary today, the third quarter was challenging for us. That being said, we've seen the customer come out and shop during the key moments on the calendar, and there is no bigger moment than the upcoming holiday season. Team has been preparing for Q4 all year. And we're off to a solid start in November. As we expected, we saw traffic patterns return to a more normalized pre-pandemic pattern with less pull-forward of demand during the early part of the month. We put together a strong set of promotions for Thanksgiving week. We saw strong reaction from the customer, yielding one of our biggest Black Friday events ever.

從我們今天的評論中可以看出，第三季對我們來說充滿挑戰。話雖這麼說，我們已經看到顧客在日曆上的關鍵時刻出來購物，而沒有比即將到來的假期更重要的時刻了。團隊全年都在為第四季做準備。我們在 11 月有了一個良好的開始。正如我們預期的那樣，我們看到交通模式恢復到了大流行前更正常的模式，本月初需求的前移較少。我們為感恩節週準備了一系列強而有力的促銷活動。我們看到了客戶的強烈反應，這是我們有史以來最大的黑色星期五活動之一。

While we still have a lot of business ahead of us, success of our Thanksgiving promotion helped generate some momentum as we head into December. Looking forward into the remainder of holiday, we have a strong promotional cadence, supported by an aggressive marketing spend, which should help us deliver outstanding value to our customers.

雖然我們還有很多業務要做，但感恩節促銷活動的成功為我們進入 12 月帶來了一些動力。展望假期的剩餘時間，在積極的營銷支出的支持下，我們將有強勁的促銷節奏，這將有助於我們為客戶提供卓越的價值。

Our inventory is in the best position we've been in over the past 3 years with a focus on the key giftable categories, along with new brands and innovative items customers have been voting for all year. I've been in all 3 of our DCs and a lot of our stores over the past quarter, and I can tell you that teams are ready and excited for customers this Christmas.

我們的庫存處於過去三年來的最佳位置，重點關注關鍵的禮品類別，以及客戶全年投票支持的新品牌和創新商品。在過去的一個季度裡，我去過我們所有的 3 個配送中心和許多商店，我可以告訴您，團隊已經準備好並為今年聖誕節的顧客感到興奮。

With that, we will now open it up for questions.

現在，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自奧本海默的布萊恩·內格爾（Brian Nagel）。

My first question, looking at the results here over the last few quarters, maybe we talked about kind of the top line weakness. But recognizing you haven't given guidance for '24 and you plan to do so early next year, but I guess the question I have is, as we think about this comp trajectory and kind of the moving pieces, what are the puts and takes as you look at the business to get back to positive comps for the company?

我的第一個問題是，看看過去幾季的結果，也許我們討論了營收的弱點。但認識到你還沒有給出 24 世紀的指導，並且你計劃在明年初這樣做，但我想我的問題是，當我們考慮這個比較軌跡和移動部分時，看跌和拿走的是什麼當您審視業務以恢復公司的正面表現時？

Yes. I'll start and Carl may jump in. But when we thought about this year, and I think we shared this on our last call, coming off the pandemic, having 2 back-to-back double-digit comp years, we anticipated '22 was going to be kind of a year of reset. Thought we'd get back to growth this year. Clearly, the thing that is challenged this year is the customer is under pressure. So we feel like we don't have a challenged strategy. We've got a challenge customer. So the things that we've been focusing on as we move forward is managing through the short term, making sure we're delivering against the things customer is looking for. Customer is voting for value. So we're delivering value in a couple of different ways: first, our everyday value proposition; second, the promotions that we run during key time periods during the year; and third, the clearance events that we run at the end of each season. And then on the other end of the spectrum, we're seeing customers gravitate towards newness. So we're also focused on delivering a steady diet of new brands and new ideas.

是的。我會開始，卡爾可能會插話。但是當我們想到今年時，我想我們在上次電話會議上分享了這一點，擺脫了大流行，有兩個連續兩位數的補償年，我們預計“ 22月將是重置的一年。認為今年我們會恢復成長。顯然，今年面臨的挑戰是客戶面臨壓力。所以我們覺得我們沒有一個有挑戰性的策略。我們有一位具有挑戰性的客戶。因此，在我們前進的過程中，我們一直關注的事情是短期管理，確保我們能夠滿足客戶的需求。客戶正在為價值投票。因此，我們透過幾種不同的方式提供價值：首先，我們的日常價值主張；第二，我們在一年中的關鍵時段所進行的促銷活動；第三，我們在每個賽季結束時舉辦的清倉活動。另一方面，我們看到客戶傾向於新鮮事物。因此，我們也專注於提供穩定的新品牌和新想法。

That being said, another drag in our comp has been our outdoor business, which, through the first couple of quarters, was down double digits. We've seen that business start to get better as we started lapping softer comps. And so, I think as we move into next year -- and you're right, we're not ready to give guidance for next year. I think the focus on value newness, leaning into our initiatives longer term in terms of opening new stores, the growth we think we have in dot-com and getting more productivity out of our existing base of stores, we think all of those things are the key ingredients to returning back to positive comps. That being said, when the customers' health turns around a little bit, that we can't determine. What we can focus on are the things that are within our control, and that's what we're focused on.

話雖這麼說，我們的業績的另一個拖累是我們的戶外業務，在前幾個季度，該業務下降了兩位數。隨著我們開始採用更軟的補償，我們看到業務開始好轉。因此，我認為，隨著我們進入明年，您是對的，我們還沒有準備好為明年提供指導。我認為，重點關注價值新穎性，在開設新店方面傾向於我們的長期計劃，我們認為我們在互聯網上的增長以及從我們現有的商店基地中獲得更多的生產力，我們認為所有這些都是回歸積極競爭的關鍵因素。話雖這麼說，但顧客的健康狀況何時會好轉，我們無法確定。我們能關注的是我們能控制的事情，這才是我們所關注的。

Yes, Brian, the only thing I would add there to the initiatives that Steve walked through, there's a big comp sales waterfall embedded within them. He mentioned new stores and omnichannel. I would also say the customer data platform, we got it up and running in July. We're running a lot of tests associated with it. They're positive out of the gate. I think as we ramp our maturity, working with the tool and getting more customer data, I think that's a tailwind for a long time.

是的，布萊恩，我唯一要添加到史蒂夫所經歷的計劃中的是，其中嵌入了一個巨大的銷售瀑布。他提到了新商店和全通路。我還要說的是客戶資料平台，我們在 7 月啟動並運行了它。我們正在運行大量與之相關的測試。他們一開始就很積極。我認為，隨著我們不斷提高成熟度、使用該工具並獲取更多客戶數據，我認為這在很長一段時間內都是有利的。

No, look, that's very helpful. Then the second question, again, I know we're dealing with a very fluid demand backdrop in a relatively short amount of time. But as you look at your business, particularly relative to all the internal initiatives you've done with merchandising, are you capturing -- do you think you're generally capturing share across the board? Or are there parts where you potentially could be losing share here?

不，看，這很有幫助。然後是第二個問題，我知道我們正在相對較短的時間內應對非常不穩定的需求背景。但是，當你審視自己的業務時，特別是相對於你在銷售方面所做的所有內部舉措而言，你是否正在抓住——你認為你總體上正在抓住全面的份額嗎？或者您可能會失去某些部分的份額？

Yes. Listen, we look at market share first on a broad basis, and we look at it over a longer horizon than just a month or a quarter. When we look at it on a yearly basis, we know we're picking up a little bit of share. When we look at it on a longer-term basis, we're very happy with that. If you look at our sales versus 2019, we're still up about 25%. So broadly, we believe we picked up a lot of share over the past 4 years, and we're holding on to that share. Beneath the surface, there's always puts and takes here and there. But we believe we've picked up share and are holding on to it.

是的。聽著，我們首先廣泛地關注市場份額，並且我們從更長遠的角度來看待它，而不僅僅是一個月或一個季度。當我們逐年查看時，我們知道我們正在獲得一點份額。當我們從長遠來看，我們對此感到非常滿意。如果你看看我們的銷售額與 2019 年相比，我們仍然成長了約 25%。總的來說，我們相信我們在過去四年中獲得了很多份額，並且我們將繼續持有這一份額。在表面之下，總是有一些投入和拿取。但我們相信我們已經獲得了市場份額並將繼續持有。

Our next question comes from Michael Lasser with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可·拉塞爾。

With your gross margin down 44 basis points, how are you looking at the need to continue to make these types of discounting and other promotional investments in order to drive the top line?

由於您的毛利率下降了 44 個基點，您如何看待繼續進行此類折扣和其他促銷投資以提高收入的必要性？

Yes. From a gross margin standpoint, you referenced the 44 basis points. I would hearken back to kind of some of the structural improvements that we've made. We're up about 500 basis points to FY '19. I think about the early initiatives that we talked to you about around power merchandising and the things that we've done there have a lot of lasting power, and I just want to run through some of them. We exited a bunch of categories that weren't really synonymous to sports and outdoors, toys, luggage, electronics. We implemented season codes, systemically driven clearance, life cycle management. We really optimized buy and overall inventory management with a pretty upgraded open-to-buy process. We've made allocation, replenishment, system enhancements, and those are learning. They continue to get better and better. Pricing, system updates with reg price optimization, I really feel like we've done a good job there. And then to your last point, just managing promotions, but managing them from a position of inventory strength. And so, the 50 basis point decline was really driven by planned promotions and our customer gravitating towards that value side of our offering. It was included in our guidance. We are going to continue -- like we're an everyday value provider. So you're going to see value every day. We're really only going to promote during those key shopping moments, and we've embedded that within the guidance. And so, I do want to reiterate, our fourth quarter gross margin last year in the fourth quarter was 32.8%. The high and the low range that we put out there in this guidance, on the low, it's a little bit worse than that. On the high, it's a little bit higher than that. We're planning on promotionality, and we've got some tailwinds with the supply chain costs.

是的。從毛利率的角度來看，您引用了 44 個基點。我想回顧一下我們所做的一些結構性改進。與 19 財年相比，我們上漲了約 500 個基點。我認為我們與您討論的有關電力行銷的早期舉措以及我們在那裡所做的事情具有很大的持久力量，我只想介紹其中的一些。我們退出了一系列與運動和戶外、玩具、行李箱、電子產品並不真正等同的類別。我們實施了季節代碼、系統驅動的清關、生命週期管理。我們透過相當升級的開放購買流程確實優化了購買和整體庫存管理。我們進行了分配、補充、系統增強，這些都在學習中。他們繼續變得越來越好。定價、系統更新和價格優化，我真的覺得我們在這方面做得很好。最後一點，只是管理促銷活動，但要從庫存實力的角度來管理促銷活動。因此，50 個基點的下降實際上是由計劃的促銷活動以及我們的客戶傾向於我們產品的價值方面所推動的。它已包含在我們的指南中。我們將繼續下去——就像我們是日常價值提供者一樣。所以你每天都會看到價值。我們實際上只會在那些關鍵的購物時刻進行促銷，並且我們已將其嵌入到指南中。因此，我想重申一下，去年第四季我們第四季的毛利率是 32.8%。我們在本指南中列出的高點和低點範圍，在低點上，情況比這要差一些。在高處，它比這個高一點點。我們正在計劃促銷，我們在供應鏈成本方面有一些優勢。

My follow-up question is, as you look to next year, how much more room is there to reduce SG&A without impacting the customer experience? And how are you thinking about that in the fourth quarter?

我的後續問題是，展望明年，在不影響顧客體驗的情況下，還有多少空間可以減少 SG&A？您如何看待第四季度的情況？

Yes. I won't get into next year's guidance, but I will say, from an expense standpoint, this third quarter SG&A was up about $3 million to last year. That was -- more than that was our strategic investments around new stores, omnichannel, customer data, supply chain. We're flexing our variable costs really well, and we kind of keep a gauge on that by looking at our customer satisfaction scores, and we continue to be really proud of those. So if you think about the long range plan that we put out there, we had about 200 basis points of deleverage in SG&A along the span of this. Now, that was offset by gross margin improvements, largely driven by supply chain. The guidance implies about 200 basis points of SG&A deleverage in this year. The fixed cost deleverage associated with the sales is the issue right now. We remain committed to those strategic investments, and we're flexing in a healthy way in our variable. And our customers is telling us they're still happy with our performance.

是的。我不會談論明年的指導，但我會說，從支出的角度來看，第三季的 SG&A 比去年增加了約 300 萬美元。更重要的是我們圍繞著新店、全通路、顧客數據、供應鏈的策略投資。我們很好地調整了我們的可變成本，我們透過查看客戶滿意度分數來衡量這一點，我們繼續為此感到自豪。因此，如果你考慮我們所製定的長期計劃，你會發現，在此期間，我們的 SG&A 去槓桿化程度約為 200 個基點。現在，這被毛利率的提高所抵消，毛利率的提高主要是由供應鏈推動的。該指引暗示今年SG&A去槓桿化約200個基點。與銷售相關的固定成本去槓桿化是目前的問題。我們仍然致力於這些戰略投資，並且我們正在以健康的方式調整我們的變數。我們的客戶告訴我們，他們仍然對我們的表現感到滿意。

Our next question is from Will Gaertner with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的威爾·加特納。

Just wanted to touch on, first, the lower free cash flow assumption. It looks like you've cut it by $100 million, reduced CapEx by $25 million, reduced [PBT] by $38 million. Can you elaborate on that reduction?

首先想談談較低的自由現金流假設。看起來您已經削減了 1 億美元，資本支出減少了 2500 萬美元，[PBT] 減少了 3800 萬美元。能詳細說明一下這種減少嗎？

Yes, absolutely. From a free cash flow standpoint, your $100 million at the low is correct. The bulk of that is the reduction in the overall net sales on the low end. There are some timing things that come into play associated with year-end, and that made up the balance of it. Will, I do just want to reinforce, if you look at our Q3 cash flow from operations, we're up 13% to last year on down 6.4% sales. Year-to-date, on sales down 6%, cash flow from operations is down 2.6%. We really feel good about our cash flow as a rate of sales. On the investing side, on what we're committed to, it's new stores, it's omnichannel, it's customer data, and it's supply chain. We think done well. We will have no regrets investing into those 4 initiatives. So inventory management stays really good. You cannot manage your cash flow without that. We're really proud of our merchants in the open-to-buy process. But the leading causes for the decline are really sales top line in nature and then just some year-end timing stuff.

是的，一點沒錯。從自由現金流的角度來看，您的 1 億美元最低價是正確的。其中大部分是低端產品整體淨銷售額的減少。有一些與年終相關的時間因素會發揮作用，這構成了它的平衡。我只是想強調一下，如果你看看我們第三季的營運現金流，我們的銷售額比去年同期成長了 13%，而銷售額下降了 6.4%。年初至今，銷售額下降 6%，營運現金流下降 2.6%。我們對現金流作為銷售額的比率感到非常滿意。在投資方面，我們致力於新店、全通路、客戶數據和供應鏈。我們認為做得很好。我們不會後悔對這四項措施的投資。因此，庫存管理保持得非常好。沒有它，你就無法管理你的現金流。我們為我們的商家在開放購買過程中感到非常自豪。但下降的主要原因其實是銷售收入，以及一些年終時間的因素。

That's great. And just one more for me. Just can you -- I know you hit on this a little bit, but this customer data platform, what benefits are you beginning to see? What benefits are you expecting to see? And how does this -- I know you talked about the benefit in comps. But will this also benefit merch margins? And if so, how?

那太棒了。還給我一個。我知道你有點注意到這一點，但是這個客戶資料平台，你開始看到什麼好處？您期望看到什麼好處？我知道你談到了比較的好處。但這也會有利於商品利潤嗎？如果是這樣，怎麼辦？

Yes, I'll take that one. So how we've likened this before is in the past, we had pretty blunt instruments to understand what was going on with our customer file. We had data in a bunch of different places. We couldn't always tell same customer shopping us online and in store. So we installed our new customer data platform in the second quarter. And now, what we have is a holistic view of our customer. We started doing some preliminary work around segmentation. And so, now what we can actually see is we're looking at it on a weekly, monthly, quarterly basis is movement even within segments. So in some cases, we can see certain cohorts within a certain segment maybe spending a little bit less per trip, or we can see other cohorts maybe shopping less frequently. And so, what we started testing is different triggers to get them to react differently. So what I talked about on the call was we had one test with some of our best customers who -- maybe their spend was down a little bit year-to-date, to try to incent them to up-spend. In another case, we had some customers who were shopping a little less frequently. And the goal was to get them to make one extra trip. And in both those cases, they're small cases -- use cases at first with our tests, but we saw an uplift in sales and we saw the behavior that we triggered with promotion continue after the promotion. So longer term, what we would see is this can be a much more robust tool for us to use across all of our different customer segments.

是的，我會接受那個。所以我們之前的比喻是在過去，我們有相當生硬的工具來了解我們的客戶檔案發生了什麼事。我們在很多不同的地方都有數據。我們不能總是告訴同一位顧客在網路上和實體店購物。因此，我們在第二季安裝了新的客戶資料平台。現在，我們擁有的是客戶的整體視圖。我們開始圍繞細分做一些初步工作。因此，現在我們實際上可以看到的是，我們每週、每月、每季都會觀察它的變化，甚至在細分市場內也是如此。因此，在某些情況下，我們可以看到某個細分市場中的某些群體每次旅行的花費可能會少一些，或者我們可以看到其他群體的購物頻率可能較低。因此，我們開始測試不同的觸發器，讓他們做出不同的反應。因此，我在電話中談到的是，我們對一些最好的客戶進行了測試，他們的支出可能今年以來略有下降，試圖激勵他們增加支出。在另一個案例中，我們有一些購物頻率較低的顧客。目標是讓他們多進行一次旅行。在這兩種情況下，它們都是小案例——首先是我們測試的用例，但我們看到銷售額有所上升，我們看到促銷引發的行為在促銷後仍在繼續。從長遠來看，我們會看到這可以成為一個更強大的工具，供我們在所有不同的客戶群中使用。

From a margin perspective, I think what it's going to do is it's going to make us a lot more precise and targeted with our markdowns versus having broad-based promotions. I think you're going to see a continued pull-back on that and more focused, targeted promotions that are individualized to the customers. So I'm not sure there's a huge margin uplift from it, but we do think there's an offset by pulling back on company-wide promotions to fund those targeted promotions.

從利潤的角度來看，我認為它會讓我們的降價比廣泛的促銷更加精確和有針對性。我認為你會看到這種做法的持續縮減，以及針對客戶的個人化促銷活動更加集中、更有針對性。因此，我不確定這是否會帶來巨大的利潤提升，但我們確實認為，透過減少全公司範圍內的促銷活動來為這些有針對性的促銷活動提供資金，可以起到一定的抵消作用。

Our next question is from Robbie Ohmes with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Robbie Ohmes。

Hi. This is [Mattie Chick] on for Robbie Ohmes. Just first, can you talk about how Black Friday looked compared to your expectations? You said one of your strongest ever. Are there any categories to call out that performed well for Black Friday? And are you expecting holiday to be concentrated around the big buying events like Black Friday, Cyber Monday?

你好。這是羅比·歐姆斯的[瑪蒂·奇克]。首先，您能談談黑色星期五與您的預期相比如何嗎？你說的是你有史以來最強的人之一。有哪些類別在黑色星期五表現良好？您是否預計假期將集中在黑色星期五、網路星期一等大型購買活動上？

Yes. So I'm not going to get too granular in terms of category performance. What I will tell you, and I said this in the prepared remarks, is what this year feels like is kind of a return to kind of pre-pandemic shopping patterns. We saw the customer, as we came in October and early November, moderate spending and wait for the discounts. And then, as I said on the call, the event was one of our best events we've ever run. So that can give you a sense of how good it was. That being said, there's still a lot of time before Christmas. And so, we're excited about the momentum that came out of that event and that we've seen continue into the early part of this week. But it's way too early to make the call. We still got about 3 weeks before Christmas. And as you know, this year, there's 1 extra day between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That gives us 1 extra weekend. And so, we do expect at some point, there will be a little bit of a lull that creeps in after we get past this week. And we expect that last week to be really strong. So, yes, we think that the behavior we've seen happen all year of the customer aggregating their shopping around these key moments will continue. Fortunately, we've got the biggest moment of the year ahead of us, and I think we've really prepared ourselves for this. Our inventory is in the best shape it's been in all year. We've really been thoughtful about how we've constructed our promotional cadence and our marketing cadence. And I think we're really well prepped to have a great holiday season and to take advantage of the customer who's willing to be out there and shop.

是的。因此，我不會在類別表現上過於細化。我要告訴你的是，我在準備好的發言中說過，今年感覺像是回到了疫情前的購物模式。我們看到顧客，因為我們是10月和11月初來的，所以節儉了消費並等待折扣。然後，正如我在電話中所說，這次活動是我們舉辦過的最好的活動之一。這樣你就可以感受到它有多好。話雖這麼說，距離聖誕節還有很長的時間。因此，我們對這次活動所產生的勢頭感到興奮，並且我們看到這種勢頭一直持續到本周初。但現在做出決定還為時過早。距離聖誕節還有大約三個星期。如你所知，今年感恩節和聖誕節之間多了 1 天。這讓我們多了 1 個週末。因此，我們確實預計在某個時候，本週過去後將會出現一些平靜。我們預計上週的表現將會非常強勁。所以，是的，我們認為我們所看到的全年發生的客戶圍繞這些關鍵時刻聚集購物的行為將繼續下去。幸運的是，我們已經迎來了一年中最重要的時刻，我認為我們已經為此做好了準備。我們的庫存處於全年最佳狀態。我們確實深思熟慮瞭如何建立促銷節奏和行銷節奏。我認為我們已經做好了充分準備，可以度過一個愉快的假期，並充分利用願意外出購物的顧客。

That's helpful. And I just also wanted to ask a question on the hunt business. What were the trends you saw in 3Q? Are you seeing any stock up or surge behavior? And do you expect the hunt and ammo momentum to continue through 4Q?

這很有幫助。我也想問一個關於狩獵業務的問題。您在第三季看到了哪些趨勢？您是否看到任何庫存增加或激增的行為？您預計狩獵和彈藥勢頭會持續到第四季嗎？

Yes. We talked a little bit about this in the prepared remarks. Definitely, that business has been one of our more challenged businesses. Through the first half of the year, it was down, I think, in the mid-teens. We certainly -- it was -- kind of it performed down in the mid-to-high single-digits in Q3, which would imply it got better than the first half trend. And if you track it through the quarter, it definitely got better towards the end of the quarter, both in the major categories of firearms and ammo. It feels like we're starting to lap some softer comps. If you remember, we talked a lot about different surge activities that happened last year and certainly through the pandemic. It feels like we're lapping a lot of those, and the business is starting to get more normalized. And our belief and hope is that, that business will start to stabilize from this point forward.

是的。我們在準備好的發言中對此進行了一些討論。毫無疑問，該業務是我們最具挑戰性的業務之一。我認為，今年上半年，這一數字下降了十幾歲。我們當然 - 它確實 - 第三季度的表現下降到中高個位數，這意味著它比上半年的趨勢更好。如果你追蹤整個季度，你會發現在季度末，槍支和彈藥的主要類別都明顯有所改善。感覺就像我們開始進行一些更柔和的比賽。如果你還記得的話，我們談論了很多去年發生的不同激增活動，當然還有大流行期間發生的活動。感覺我們正在做很多這樣的事情，而且業務開始變得更加正常化。我們的信念和希望是，業務將從現在開始穩定下來。

Mattie, one thing I'd add there is, it was a little bit warmer than average. And so, that hunter that likes to get outside and mess with his lease prep activities and get ready for deer season didn't see that amplification. And now that it's gotten a little cooler here, we're starting to see that turn on a little more.

馬蒂，我要補充的一件事是，天氣比平均溫度溫暖一些。因此，那個喜歡到外面去搞亂他的租賃準備活動並為鹿季節做好準備的獵人並沒有看到這種放大。現在這裡已經有點涼了，我們開始看到這種情況變得更加活躍。

Our next question comes from Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。

Just wanted to get an update on some of the product newness. I know you guys have been excited about some of the new products that have come in recently and have been expanded like the OOFOS recovery sandals and Bogg Bags and Birkenstocks and Shadow Systems. So I just wanted to see if you have any update there.

只是想了解一些產品的最新動態。我知道你們對最近推出和擴展的一些新產品感到興奮，例如 OOFOS 恢復涼鞋、Bogg Bags、Birkenstocks 和 Shadow Systems。所以我只是想看看你是否有任何更新。

Well, you listed a couple of them, Anthony. Thank you. Certainly, what we've seen this year, and we talked a little bit about it that the customer is gravitating towards newness. So the categories you talked about are all categories that we were well positioned in for this holiday. We've seen them continue into holiday. Other areas, we talked about our outdoor grilling business being really strong. There's certainly a trend being fueled there by Blackstone and that flat grilling. That continues to be a great category for us. We talked in our last call about the addition of L.L.Bean, so we're really excited about that and the addition to that to our assortments for this holiday. And when you think about it, that product is really strong in kind of fall, heavier weight products, so the weather is getting right for that right now just in time. So we're excited about that. But, yes, generally, across the board, newness is working for us. You called out several of the brands, and there's other brands out there that are also working.

嗯，你列出了其中的幾個，安東尼。謝謝。當然，我們今年所看到的，我們也談到了客戶正在被新事物所吸引。所以你談到的類別都是我們在這個假期中定位良好的類別。我們看到他們繼續度假。在其他領域，我們談到我們的戶外燒烤業務非常強勁。黑石和平板燒烤無疑地推動了一種趨勢。這對我們來說仍然是一個很好的類別。我們在上次電話會議中談到了 L.L.Bean 的添加，因此我們對此感到非常興奮，並且對此假期我們的產品系列中添加了 L.L.Bean 感到非常興奮。當你想到這一點時，該產品在秋季、較重的產品中確實很強大，所以現在的天氣正好適合這種情況。所以我們對此感到興奮。但是，是的，總體而言，新鮮事物對我們來說是有效的。您提到了幾個品牌，還有其他品牌也在發揮作用。

Got it. And just one quick follow-up on newness. Any update in terms of potentially getting on (inaudible) for the footwear business?

知道了。這只是對新鮮事物的一個快速跟進。關於鞋類業務的潛在進展（聽不清楚）有任何更新嗎？

At this point, it is not in our plans in the next year. We continue to talk to them and work with them on getting access to those brands. But at this point, it's not on our road map. That being said, we've got a lineup with the best brands in footwear. We've got a premier position with Nike, who's our biggest brand across the total company, as well as in footwear. Strong businesses with brands like Adidas and Under Armour, new brands like Birkenstock that you mentioned. HEYDUDE doing really well for us. Crocs doing really well for us. Brooks doing really well for us. So our goal and what we're focused on is winning with the brands that we have and being very successful with those.

目前來看，這並不在我們明年的計畫中。我們將繼續與他們交談並與他們合作以獲得這些品牌的使用權。但目前，它還沒有出現在我們的路線圖上。話雖如此，我們擁有最好的鞋類品牌陣容。我們在耐吉方面佔據了領先地位，耐吉是我們整個公司以及鞋類領域最大的品牌。擁有阿迪達斯（Adidas）和安德瑪（Under Armour）等品牌的強大業務，以及您提到的勃肯（Birkenstock）等新品牌。 HEYDUDE 為我們做得非常好。 Crocs 為我們做的非常好。布魯克斯為我們做得非常好。因此，我們的目標和重點是憑藉我們擁有的品牌贏得勝利並取得巨大成功。

Our next question comes from Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的克里斯霍弗斯。

So my question is on the strength that you saw at the end of October and quarter-to-date. I guess, how much of that do you think was helped by the Rangers-Astros World Series? Is that something that we need to contemplate as we look to the back half of 2024? And as you think about the guidance for the fourth quarter, can you share anything about what's going on quarter-to-date? It seems like you're bracketing about a down 6%. Are you trending in line with that? Are you expecting that extra day and that late surge to get you to that level? Anything there would be really helpful.

所以我的問題是關於你在 10 月底和本季至今所看到的實力。我想，你認為流浪者隊-太空人隊世界大賽對這有多大幫助？展望 2024 年下半年，這是我們需要思考的事情嗎？當您考慮第四季度的指導時，您能分享一下本季迄今發生的情況嗎？看來您的降幅約為 6%。你的趨勢符合嗎？您是否期待額外的一天和最後的高峰讓您達到那個水平？那裡的任何事情都會非常有幫助。

Yes, I'll answer the second part first. The performance we've seen quarter-to-date is embedded in the guidance that we gave. And I'll refer you back to the commentary I gave you around November and Black Friday, and you can make inferences from that.

是的，我先回答第二部分。我們本季迄今所看到的業績已納入我們提供的指引中。我會讓你回顧一下我在 11 月和黑色星期五前後給你的評論，你可以從中做出推論。

In terms of the Astros versus Rangers, believe it or not, it actually was more of a negative to us than a positive to us. If you look at our store count and what the Astros mean as a percentage of our business and license relative to the Rangers, the Rangers business is smaller. So lapping the Astros World Series last year with the Rangers was actually a negative to our sales trend early in the month.

就太空人隊與流浪者隊的比賽而言，無論你相信與否，這實際上對我們來說更多的是消極而不是積極。如果你看看我們的商店數量以及太空人隊相對於流浪者隊在我們業務和許可證中所佔的百分比，你會發現流浪者隊的業務規模較小。因此，去年流浪者隊在太空人隊世界大賽中的表現實際上對我們本月初的銷售趨勢產生了負面影響。

Got it. And as you think about the hunt business, it's really been such an indicator of the overall trend in the business. You think about the start of rifle season for deer in November 1 in Texas, obviously a big event. Carl, you talked about some shift of the weather. As you peel back what you saw over, let's say, the past 2 months, how confident are you that, that business is actually bottoming? Because it's sort of easy to focus on, like, hey, here's what just happened when it got cold, and the season started and blamed the weather earlier. Like I guess, what's your degree of confidence and how is that different from the last time you spoke to us in August?

知道了。當你想到狩獵業務時，它確實是該業務整體趨勢的指標。想想 11 月 1 日德克薩斯州鹿的步槍季節開始，這顯然是一件大事。卡爾，你談到了天氣的一些變化。當你回顧過去兩個月所看到的情況時，你對業務實際上已經觸底有多大信心？因為很容易集中註意力，就像，嘿，這就是天氣變冷時發生的事情，季節開始並歸咎於天氣較早。就像我猜的那樣，您的信心程度如何？這與您上次八月與我們交談時有何不同？

Yes. I think what I would tell you is this business is a cyclical business. It always has been, and it is sometimes driven by external events and impacted by those, maybe more so some of the other businesses we had. What we shared with you in the last call, which we also believe we're seeing right now is what gives us confidence that it's starting to kind of level out a little bit is that the volume is becoming fairly predictable on a weekly basis. If you go back, there were huge spikes in the last year, driven by external events. And as we got through this year, ammo on a weekly basis has settled into a pretty normal cadence. The firearms business has settled into a pretty normal cadence. So really, the negative comps we're experiencing wasn't as much about the fluctuation in this year's business as in the fluctuation in last year's business. As we get into Q4 and beyond, that starts to level out quite a bit, and that's what gives us confidence that it's stabilizing. That being said, it's going to have ups and downs, right? It's like any business that's driven by some external factors, but the kind of the noise in the last year is starting to die down a little bit.

是的。我想我要告訴你的是這個產業是週期性產業。它一直都是這樣，有時是由外部事件驅動並受這些事件的影響，也許我們擁有的其他一些業務更是如此。我們在上次電話會議中與您分享的內容（我們也相信我們現在看到的內容）讓我們相信，它開始趨於平穩，每週的交易量變得相當可預測。如果你回顧過去，去年在外部事件的推動下出現了巨大的高峰。隨著今年的進展，每週的彈藥消耗已經進入了相當正常的節奏。槍枝生意已經進入了相當正常的節奏。事實上，我們所經歷的負面影響並不是今年業務的波動，而是去年業務的波動。當我們進入第四季度及以後，這種情況開始趨於平穩，這讓我們有信心它正在穩定下來。話雖這麼說，它會有起有落，對嗎？就像任何受外部因素驅動的業務一樣，但去年的噪音開始逐漸減弱。

Our next question is from Oliver Wintermantel with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Oliver Wintermantel。

I had a question -- you mentioned the new markets and legacy markets in your prepared remarks. Could you maybe a little bit expand on what you learned there about the cadence of when you're opening the stores until maturity? And then, maybe add a little bit on 4-wall EBITDA?

我有一個問題——您在準備好的演講中提到了新市場和傳統市場。您能否詳細介紹一下您在那裡了解到的有關您開設商店直至成熟的節奏？然後，也許在 4 牆 EBITDA 上再加一點？

Yes, I'll tackle the first part. I'll let Carl tackle the second. So we're now two years into our new store openings. We opened up 9 stores last year, 14 this year. I would tell you, last year, a lot of the stores were weighted more heavily to new markets, and we tested a lot of different ideas. We were testing how do we do in a more urban, dense population versus a more suburban population. We were testing some different new markets. This year, we applied a lot of those learnings that we had from last year to this year's new stores. When you look at the 2 years of vintages that we're seeing, and we called this out on the call, the stores that are within kind of our core geography or footprint, where we've had existing stores for a while, get off to a much faster start, and they're beating or surpassing the plans that we put out there. On the flip side, as we go into a newer market, maybe in the Northern Midwest, in Indiana or maybe even Illinois, starting out a little bit slower. But when we go back and we look at historical ramps, and one of the things that's also a little tricky is some of the new stores opened from '15 and prior have some effect of the pandemic in them, right, in the later years. So we're trying to go back and look at ramps before that to see what that curve looks like. You're seeing those probably have a slower ramp. And so, we wanted to call that out just to give you guys some color around that. And certainly, as we get into 2024 and give guidance, we'll give you, hopefully, a better idea of how we're seeing these new stores ramp and give you a little better guidance around that.

是的，我將解決第一部分。我會讓卡爾解決第二個問題。現在我們的新店開幕已經兩年了。去年我們開了9家店，今年開了14家。我想告訴你，去年，很多商店都更重視新市場，我們測試了很多不同的想法。我們正在測試我們在城市、人口稠密和郊區人口中的表現如何。我們正在測試一些不同的新市場。今年，我們將去年學到的許多知識應用到了今年的新店。當你看到我們看到的2 年年份的年份時，我們在電話中指出了這一點，那些位於我們核心地理位置或足跡範圍內的商店，我們已經在那裡開設了一段時間的現有商店，下車啟動速度要快得多，而且他們正在擊敗或超越我們所製定的計劃。另一方面，當我們進入較新的市場時，可能是在中西部北部、印第安納州甚至伊利諾州，起步會比較慢。但當我們回過頭來看看歷史成長時，其中一件也有點棘手的事情是，一些從 15 年及之前開業的新商店在後來的幾年裡受到了流行病的一些影響。所以我們試著回去看看之前的坡道，看看那條曲線是什麼樣子的。你會看到那些可能有較慢的斜坡。所以，我們想指出這一點只是為了給你們一些關於這個問題的色彩。當然，隨著我們進入 2024 年並提供指導，我們希望讓您更了解我們如何看待這些新商店的擴張，並為您提供更好的指導。

Yes. And I'll take the EBITDA. I think, similar to what Steve talked about, within our markets where there's high brand awareness, EBITDA rates are higher even in year 1 versus in other markets where the brand awareness isn't as high. We've had to invest a little bit more from a marketing perspective for that local customer to get to know us. The things that we talked about, positive EBITDA as a cohort in year 1, we saw that still committed to a ROIC hurdle of 20%, learned a lot coming out with FY '22. I'll just reiterate some of the commentary that we talked about, tested a lot of new things, went into 2 new states, did our first retrofits as a company. We've done build-to-suits historically for as long -- even before Steve and I were here. Tried some new things, learned a lot. Feel like the FY '23 are benefiting from those learnings. And we'll update you more in March.

是的。我會選擇 EBITDA。我認為，與史蒂夫所說的類似，在我們品牌知名度較高的市場中，即使在第一年，EBITDA 比率也比品牌知名度不那麼高的其他市場更高。從行銷角度來看，我們必須多投入一點，才能讓當地客戶了解我們。我們談到的事情是，第一年的 EBITDA 為正值，我們看到仍然致力於 20% 的 ROIC 門檻，從 22 財年學到了很多東西。我只是重申我們討論過的一些評論，測試了很多新事物，進入了兩個新狀態，作為一家公司進行了第一次改造。歷史上，我們一直在做量身定制的服務——甚至在我和史蒂夫來到這裡之前。嘗試了一些新事物，學到了很多。感覺 23 財年正從這些經驗中受益。我們將在三月向您提供更多最新消息。

Yes. To Carl's point, one of the things I left out at the end is we're actually seeing the '23 vintage get off to a faster [cycling] point too because we applied those learnings. So what's really interesting is some of these newer markets, actually over Black Friday, were some of our best markets. So, that gives us a lot of confidence that people are trying the brand who maybe hadn't tried it before, and that is starting to break through a little bit.

是的。就卡爾的觀點而言，我在最後遺漏的一件事是，我們實際上也看到 23 年份也達到了更快的[循環]點，因為我們應用了這些知識。因此，真正有趣的是，其中一些新市場，實際上是在黑色星期五期間，是我們最好的市場之一。因此，這給了我們很大的信心，人們正在嘗試這個以前可能從未嘗試過的品牌，並且正在開始取得一點突破。

I just had one follow-up. There was a previous question about the reduction in CapEx to $175 million to $225 million. It looks like the cadence of store openings in the fourth quarter stays the same. Is that CapEx reduction -- are you signaling something about next year's store openings cadence?

我剛剛進行了一次後續行動。之前有一個關於資本支出減少至 1.75 億美元至 2.25 億美元的問題。看起來第四季的開店節奏保持不變。這是資本支出的減少嗎？您是否在暗示明年開店的節奏？

No, not at all. This has more to do with when we revised our guidance, any discretionary expense we pulled out, any discretionary capital we pulled out, we've been efficient. I'm going to reiterate our commitment to those 4 kind of initiatives that we talked about. From a new stores, omnichannel, customer data, supply chain standpoint, there's been -- none of that CapEx pull-down has anything to do with that. It's just we're getting closer towards the end of the year. I'm willing to refine kind of our guidance range, just like we did on the top line and EPS. It's just coming in at a little bit lower.

一點都不。這更與我們修訂指導意見、我們撤出的任何可自由支配費用、我們撤出的任何可自由支配資本有關，我們一直是高效的。我將重申我們對我們談到的這四種舉措的承諾。從新商店、全通路、客戶資料、供應鏈的角度來看，資本支出的下降與這些都沒有關係。只是距離年底越來越近了。我願意改進我們的指導範圍，就像我們在營收和每股盈餘方面所做的那樣。只是價格稍微低一點而已。

Our next question comes from Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自丹尼爾·因布羅和史蒂芬斯。

This is Joe Enderlin on for Daniel. Just kind of piggybacking on the last question there, could you give any additional color on what early learnings you're taking from the 2022 vintage to the 2023 one that you think are driving the most improvement within those stores?

我是丹尼爾的喬恩德林。順便提一下最後一個問題，您能否進一步說明您從 2022 年年份到 2023 年年份中獲得的哪些早期經驗，您認為這些經驗正在推動這些商店的最大改進？

Yes. I would say there's several. Carl hit on one. We went in with a marketing plan in terms of how we're looking at the new stores that were both in heritage and new markets. And there's probably more distortion that we need to make. We probably can spend a little bit less in the heritage markets, a little bit more in the new markets to drive a little more brand awareness. The last 2 vintages have been more back half loaded. We're seeing stronger performance in stores that open up in spring. So we think moving more into the first half of the year is the right thing to do. So you're going to see us start slowly moving to have a better balance across the years, having a better balance between new markets and existing markets, having a better improved localization strategy. I think we've done a lot of work over the past 4 or 5 years in terms of being smarter about our localization strategy. But even as we're opening up some of these new markets, we're having even more learnings. We opened a store in Florida, and we gave it our best assortment of saltwater fishing, and we thought we were giving it an A+ assortment. Then, as we're down in the market, looking at it, found that we probably need to do even more than we're doing. So now we built an A++ assortment, and then we're going to use that to apply to all the Florida stores that we opened on the Gulf Coast going forward. So it's an iterative process. We're taking the learnings from each one and applying to the next. It's broad-based across merchandising, across marketing, across operations, across how we inventory the store. I can just tell you that each one is getting better and better, and that's our expectation as we move forward.

是的。我想說有幾個。卡爾擊中了一個。我們根據如何看待傳統市場和新市場的新商店制定了行銷計劃。我們可能還需要做出更多的扭曲。我們可能可以在傳統市場上少花一點錢，在新市場上多花一點錢，以提高品牌知名度。過去兩個年份的葡萄酒都已半滿。我們看到春季開業的商店表現更強勁。因此，我們認為將更多時間投入今年上半年是正確的做法。因此，您將看到我們開始慢慢多年來取得更好的平衡，在新市場和現有市場之間取得更好的平衡，並更好地改進本地化策略。我認為在過去的四、五年裡，我們在更明智地制定在地化策略方面做了很多工作。但即使我們正在開放一些新市場，我們也學到了更多。我們在佛羅裡達州開了一家商店，我們給它提供了最好的鹹水釣魚品種，我們認為我們給它的是 A+ 品種。然後，當我們進入市場時，觀察它，發現我們可能需要做的比我們正在做的更多。所以現在我們建立了一個 A++ 分類，然後我們將使用它來應用到我們未來在墨西哥灣沿岸開設的所有佛羅裡達商店。所以這是一個迭代的過程。我們將從每一項工作中吸取經驗教訓，並將其應用到下一項工作中。它的基礎廣泛，涵蓋銷售、行銷、營運以及我們如何盤點商店。我可以告訴你，每個人都在變得越來越好，這是我們前進的期望。

Got it. That's helpful. Just as a follow-up, warmer fall weather seemed to influence sales across the industry. Does this influence how you look at the sales opportunity in 4Q at all? Do you think that initial deferral of cold weather items in 3Q could be made up in 4Q to any extent?

知道了。這很有幫助。接下來，溫暖的秋季天氣似乎影響了整個行業的銷售。這是否會影響您對第四季銷售機會的看法？您認為第 3 季寒冷天氣專案的最初延期是否可以在第 4 季得到一定程度的彌補？

Yes. That's -- the big question is if it gets cold, how long it stays cold, et cetera. I think one of the things that we're happy about is that our inventories are under control, right? And candidly, it feels like the industry is in a better place today than maybe it was a year ago at this time. And so, we saw promotions elevate a little bit over Black Friday but still seem well within control and lower than where they were pre pandemic. We've got, obviously, increased promotions built into our forecast moving forward. But I don't think we're counting on a big return of business that was missed. But I also don't think we have an overhang of inventory that we're going to have to address or deal with either.

是的。那就是——最大的問題是天氣是否變冷，冷多久，等等。我認為我們感到高興的事情之一就是我們的庫存得到控制，對吧？坦白說，感覺這個行業今天的處境可能比一年前更好。因此，我們看到促銷活動比黑色星期五有所增加，但似乎仍然在可控範圍內，並且低於疫情前的水平。顯然，我們在未來的預測中增加了促銷活動。但我認為我們不會指望錯過的業務會帶來巨大回報。但我也不認為我們有必須解決或處理的庫存過剩問題。

Yes. And the only thing I would add there is that supply chain normalization, it might not be between Q3 and Q4, but it might be intra-quarter where parents might have been buying a holiday gift and they bought it early because they were worried about it being there. I think the consumer is confident that at least looking at our inventory position, we're going to be in stock more frequently. And so, I think some of that stuff that may have occurred in the third quarter and yesteryear, a parent or someone will have more confidence buying that closer in.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，供應鏈正常化，可能不是在第三季和第四季之間，但可能是在季度內，父母可能一直在購買節日禮物，但他們提前購買了，因為他們擔心它在那裡。我認為消費者有信心，至少從我們的庫存狀況來看，我們將更頻繁地備貨。因此，我認為第三季和去年可能發生的一些事情，家長或某人會更有信心購買更接近的產品。

I think when you look at our business, candidly, Q3 is usually a wildcard, right? In our geography, it can be warm, occasionally get a cold snap in October. It helps out a little bit. Generally, our geography gets colder in Q4, and it's been fairly consistent year-over-year, and that's when we sell the bulk of our seasonal products. And so, I think we're going to see that same pattern hold true this year.

坦白說，我認為當你審視我們的業務時，Q3 通常是一個通配符，對嗎？在我們的地理環境中，十月可能很溫暖，偶爾也會有寒流。它有一點幫助。一般來說，我們的地理環境在第四季度變得更冷，而且與去年同期相比相當穩定，這也是我們銷售大部分季節性產品的時候。因此，我認為今年我們將看到同樣的模式。

Our next question comes from Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼。

This is Jackie Sussman on for Simeon. Just on the 34.5% gross margin for the quarter, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks, shrink. How are you handling shrink relative to prior quarters? How has it evolved throughout the quarter? Are things getting sequentially better? And anything to call out in terms of Q4-to-date on that would be really helpful.

我是西蒙的傑姬·蘇斯曼。就本季 34.5% 的毛利率而言，我想您在準備好的發言中提到了收縮。您如何處理相對於前幾季的萎縮？整個季度的發展情況如何？事情是否逐漸好轉？從第四季至今來看，任何需要指出的事情都會非常有幫助。

Yes, Jackie, that's a good question. Shrink was a big topic of discussion in the second quarter. We still see it as an issue. Our shrink rate was up 12 basis points to last year in the third quarter. And when I talked about some of the muting of the tailwinds from freight, shrink is in play. Look, I don't think -- we do year-round -- we talked a little bit about this at the last quarter. We do year-round physical inventory. So we started to see shrink pop in the third quarter of last year. We were up 36 basis points in shrink in the third quarter of last year. So this is 12 basis points on top of that. It's better than the second quarter and way better than the first quarter trajectory. But I do think it's because we got an earlier read on this and began to react to it maybe just a little bit quicker.

是的，傑基，這是個好問題。收縮是第二季討論的一大話題。我們仍然認為這是一個問題。第三季我們的收縮率比去年同期上升了 12 個基點。當我談到貨運帶來的一些順風車減弱時，收縮就在發揮作用。聽著，我不認為——我們全年都這樣做——我們在上個季度對此進行了一些討論。我們全年進行實體庫存。所以我們從去年第三季開始看到收縮流行。去年第三季我們的收縮率上升了 36 個基點。所以這是最重要的 12 個基點。這比第二季好，也比第一季的軌跡好得多。但我確實認為這是因為我們更早了解了這一點，並且開始對此做出反應，也許只是更快一點。

I'll walk through some of the things that we're doing without getting into kind of too much detail associated with what we're doing. We've made investments in the team. We've made investments in internal analytics to help us see patterns, both internally and externally quicker. We've done a number of technology solution tests and subsequent rollouts really beginning in the third quarter of last year. That aids on the prevention side as well as on the detection side. We've got really strong partnerships with local law enforcement. So, on the detection side, the things that we can do to aid them, like they don't like seeing this happen, and the tools that we can help them with, they appreciate. We've seen sort of from a federal standpoint, over COVID, there wasn't as much federal participation in kind of like these local organized crime rings that we were seeing. I feel really good about what we're doing. We've led a couple of those discussions here, and we talked about one of the ORC busts that we saw in the Houston area. That was a long-running thing earlier. And lastly, we don't want to lock up all of our product. We don't want our customer to have a negative experience. But we test and we learn a lot. So we've done some test and learns with some baseball equipment that made a lot of sense. And we put the customer call button right next to where we might use a peg lock for an expensive glove, the A2000 specifically and some of the bats. That business is turning on so well associated with those premium baseball bats. We want to make sure that, that inventory is there for the customer when they come in. So, that big mix of things is what we're doing. But it's a retail-wide problem. It's a nationwide problem, and our shrink rate was up 12 basis points this quarter.

我將介紹我們正在做的一些事情，但不會涉及與我們正在做的事情相關的太多細節。我們對團隊進行了投資。我們對內部分析進行了投資，以幫助我們更快地發現內部和外部的模式。從去年第三季開始，我們已經完成了許多技術解決方案測試和後續部署。這對於預防和檢測都有幫助。我們與當地執法部門建立了非常牢固的合作關係。因此，在檢測方面，我們可以做一些事情來幫助他們，就像他們不喜歡看到這種情況發生一樣，以及我們可以幫助他們的工具，他們很欣賞。我們從聯邦政府的角度看到，在新冠疫情期間，聯邦政府並沒有像我們看到的這些當地有組織的犯罪團夥那樣有那麼多的參與。我對我們正在做的事情感覺非常好。我們在這裡主持了幾次這樣的討論，我們談到了我們在休士頓地區看到的獸人半身像之一。之前這是一個長期存在的事情。最後，我們不想鎖定我們所有的產品。我們不希望我們的客戶有負面的體驗。但我們進行了測試並學到了很多。所以我們用一些棒球設備做了一些測試和學習，這很有意義。我們將客戶呼叫按鈕放在我們可能使用昂貴手套（特別是 A2000 和某些球棒）的釘鎖的位置旁邊。這項業務的蓬勃發展與那些優質棒球棒密切相關。我們希望確保，當客戶進來時，庫存就在那裡。所以，我們正在做的就是這種大組合。但這是整個零售業的問題。這是一個全國性的問題，本季我們的收縮率上升了 12 個基點。

Yes. I'll just emphasize one point that I think was embedded in what Carl said. Probably one of the best things that we can do to help combat this because, he's right, it is a problem that everybody is facing, is to staff our stores and make sure we've got people there who are helping out the customers, who are around. And that's something we've been committed to, and I think that's been a help as we've been navigating some of these shrink trends that people have been fighting against.

是的。我只想強調我認為卡爾所說的這一點。也許我們能做的最好的事情之一就是幫助我們解決這個問題，因為他是對的，這是每個人都面臨的問題，就是為我們的商店配備人員，並確保我們有人員在那裡幫助顧客，都在附近。這是我們一直致力於的事情，我認為這對我們一直在應對人們一直反對的一些收縮趨勢有所幫助。

Got it. Super helpful. And speaking of staffing stores, as you start the holiday season, are you seeing just any pressure on wages or labor hours? How are we thinking about that in terms of potential SG&A spend in the quarter relative to your pre-COVID trends?

知道了。超有幫助。說到員工商店，當假期開始時，您是否看到工資或工時有任何壓力？相較於新冠疫情前的趨勢，我們如何看待本季潛在的銷售、管理及行政費用支出？

Yes. Certainly, if you look at our hourly wages versus pre-COVID, pre-pandemic, they're up for everybody. We feel like we've done a really good job of keeping pace, if not maybe doing a little better in terms of the increases. We're not having any trouble getting help candidly. We've got a really good energized team of people that are out there. We feel like we're appropriately staffed. But yes, definitely, wages are up versus where they were pre-pandemic.

是的。當然，如果你看看我們的時薪與新冠疫情之前、大流行之前的情況，你會發現每個人的時薪都是一樣的。我們覺得我們在跟上步伐方面做得非常好，如果不是的話，也許在成長方面做得更好一點。我們在坦誠地尋求幫助方面沒有任何困難。我們擁有一支非常優秀、充滿活力的團隊。我們覺得我們的人員配備合適。但是，是的，工資肯定比大流行前有所上漲。

Our next question is from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

This is Nathan Friedman on for Seth. I think you mentioned that your average ticket was trending higher year-over-year in this quarter. And I know that you mentioned being more promotional and having some higher clearance. But just curious what kind of trends you're seeing. Is there like any evidence of trade-down within your categories? Any color here would be appreciated.

我是內森·弗里德曼 (Nathan Friedman) 替賽斯 (Seth) 發言。我想您曾提到本季您的平均票價年比呈上升趨勢。我知道你提到要進行更多促銷並獲得更高的許可。但只是好奇你看到了什麼樣的趨勢。您的品類中是否有任何降價的證據？這裡任何顏色都會受到讚賞。

I'll start with the trade down question. We haven't seen -- that's one of the things we talked a little bit about on the last quarter's call was last year -- last quarter, we thought we saw a little bit of trade-down from our lower end consumer into maybe a lower end retailer in terms of trip consolidation. We haven't seen that this quarter. Conversely, we also haven't seen any trade-down, we think, from other retailers into us. So I don't think we're losing customers. I don't think we're necessarily gaining any trade-down. That being said, one of the things that I think is helping us with that is, we've done a really good job over the past 4 or 5 years in regards to building out our better, best end of our assortment. So what that really allows the customer to do is to trade down within our store. So building out the higher end bats and gloves that Carl was just talking about, if a customer doesn't want to spend $300 or $400 for a Marucci bat, we have other options for them to trade to versus having to go to another retailer. So we think that's helping us on that front.

我將從降價交易問題開始。我們還沒有看到——這是我們去年在上個季度的電話會議上討論過的事情之一——上個季度，我們認為我們看到了從低端消費者到可能的低端消費者的一些折衷。就旅遊整合而言，屬於低端零售商。本季我們還沒有看到這一點。相反，我們認為，我們也沒有看到其他零售商對我們有任何降價。所以我不認為我們會失去客戶。我認為我們不一定會做出任何妥協。話雖這麼說，我認為對我們有幫助的一件事是，在過去的四五年裡，我們在打造更好、最好的產品系列方面做得非常好。因此，真正允許客戶做的是在我們的商店內進行降價交易。因此，打造卡爾剛才談到的高端球棒和手套，如果顧客不想花 300 或 400 美元購買 Marucci 球棒，我們還有其他選擇供他們交易，而不必去其他零售商。所以我們認為這在這方面對我們有幫助。

In terms of AUR, average ticket, our biggest challenge was more traffic. The average ticket was basically flattish, up slightly for the quarter. We continue to see AUR growth year-over-year and over a multiyear period. We anticipate that that's going to continue. It's not huge. It's low-single digits. We think that will continue into Q4. And the promotional activity that we think is going to impact that, we have baked into our guidance.

就 AUR（平均票價）而言，我們最大的挑戰是更多的流量。本季平均票價基本持平，略有上升。我們繼續看到 AUR 在多年期間逐年增長。我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。它並不大。這是低個位數。我們認為這種情況將持續到第四季。我們認為促銷活動會對此產生影響，我們已將其納入我們的指導中。

And my second question is, you mentioned some things associated with supply chain and vendor allowances that offset 12 basis points of shrink this quarter. I guess that would suggest that your supply chain tailwind benefits may be slowing down as you start to lap these tougher comparisons. One, is that true? And second, how are you thinking about the puts and takes here in fourth quarter with supply chain and your tougher -- sort of tougher merchandise margin comparisons as well?

我的第二個問題是，您提到了一些與供應鏈和供應商津貼相關的事情，這些事情抵消了本季 12 個基點的萎縮。我想這表明，當您開始進行這些更嚴格的比較時，您的供應鏈順風效益可能會放緩。一、這是真的嗎？其次，您如何看待第四季供應鏈的看跌期權和更嚴格的商品利潤率比較？

Yes, it's a good question, Nathan. So first and second quarter freight benefit was on around about 90 basis points each quarter, and we'll have more detail in our 10-Q. But in the third quarter, it's about an 80 basis point tailwind for us, so a little bit of lessening there. We talked about -- we didn't really start to see that benefit from a freight standpoint until the first quarter of this year. So we're expecting tailwinds within the forecast that we -- or the guidance that we put out there. We're expecting tailwinds from a freight standpoint in the fourth quarter. But I think what you're starting to see just beginning in the third quarter with that 10 basis point kind of drop-off, going from 90s in first and second quarter to 80 basis points in the third quarter, it's a tailwind, but it's beginning to lessen. But we really didn't start to see the full weight of freight savings until first quarter of this year.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，內森。因此，第一季和第二季的貨運效益每季約為 90 個基點，我們將在 10 季中提供更多詳細資訊。但在第三季度，這對我們來說是大約 80 個基點的順風，因此略有減弱。我們談到——直到今年第一季度，我們才真正開始從貨運的角度看到這種好處。因此，我們預計在我們的預測或我們發布的指導範圍內會出現順風車。從貨運的角度來看，我們預計第四季將出現順風車。但我認為，從第三季開始，你就開始看到10 個基點的下降，從第一季和第二季的90 個基點下降到第三季的80 個基點，這是一種順風，但它開始減少。但直到今年第一季我們才真正開始看到運費節省的全部意義。

We have time for one more question. Our next question comes from Cristina Fernandez with Telsey Group.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。我們的下一個問題來自特爾西集團的克里斯蒂娜·費南德斯。

I wanted to see if you can clarify on the sales guidance, you kept the comp range within the prior range but lowered the total sales outlook. So is that performance of new stores, the timing or the 53rd week? Can you clarify why that's lower?

我想看看您是否可以澄清銷售指導，您將補償範圍保持在先前的範圍內，但降低了總銷售前景。那麼是新店的表現、時機還是第53週呢？您能解釋一下為什麼較低嗎？

It was primarily a reflection of what we're seeing happening with the new store openings. We've had some -- we've lost some sales where they slid out a week or 2 here or there. So that certainly impacts a little bit. Also, what we discussed on the call in terms of the performance of kind of the legacy heritage markets, new stores versus kind of the newer markets, so that's the combination of those 2 things which drove that delta.

這主要反映了我們在新店開業時所看到的情況。我們有一些——我們失去了一些銷售，他們在這裡或那裡滑了一兩週。所以這肯定會產生一點影響。此外，我們在電話會議上討論了傳統市場的表現、新商店與較新市場的表現，這就是推動三角洲成長的這兩件事的結合。

But Cristina, I will -- I saw some of the early print that came out associated with comparing our fourth quarter of this year to the fourth quarter of last year. I know all of you are aware of that. This is a 53rd week fourth quarter. There are 14 weeks of sales in it. That has always been in our guidance. But I saw some early reads, as I just looked at quickly, associated with like the amplification to last year's fourth quarter. I do want to remind you there's a 53rd week.

但是克里斯蒂娜，我會——我看到了一些早期的印刷品，這些印刷品與我們今年第四季和去年第四季的比較有關。我知道你們都知道這一點。這是第四季的第 53 週。其中有 14 週的銷售。這一直是我們的指導方針。但我看到了一些早期的讀數，正如我快速瀏覽的那樣，與去年第四季的放大相關。我確實想提醒你還有第 53 週。

Yes. And then the second question I had, with the sales coming a little bit lower, how are you thinking about inventory for the year? And related to that, with the consumer shifting more to value, does it make you change the buys you have, leaning more towards that lower-price and lower-ticket assortments, focusing more on clearance activity? Any color there on inventory and buy would be helpful.

是的。然後我的第二個問題是，隨著銷售額略有下降，您如何看待今年的庫存？與此相關的是，隨著消費者更多地轉向價值，這是否會讓你改變你的購買方式，更傾向於價格更低、票價更低的品種，更專注於清倉活動？庫存和購買中的任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. I would say, one of kind of the strengths that we've shown, I think, over the past 4 years is strong inventory management discipline. I think that's continued through the past quarter. Inventories are flat on a total basis, down about 4% on a store-per-store basis from a unit perspective. So we feel like the inventory is in a good position on a [TYOY] basis. But we also feel like the content beneath the surface is much better than where it was a year ago in stocks, or the highest had been since the pandemic started. So we don't anticipate any sort of overhang of inventory coming out of the holiday.

是的。我想說，我認為，我們在過去四年中所表現出的優勢之一就是強大的庫存管理紀律。我認為這種情況在上個季度一直持續著。庫存總量持平，從單位角度來看，每家商店的庫存下降約 4%。因此，我們認為庫存在 [TYOY] 的基礎上處於良好的位置。但我們也認為，股票表面下的內容比一年前好得多，或是疫情開始以來的最高水準。因此，我們預計假期後不會出現任何形式的庫存過剩。

In terms of how we're structuring our buys, yes, the customer is gravitating towards value. We see that expressed several different ways. We talk a little bit about sometimes the private label mix. Private label business was a little better than some of our national brand business, which we infer as a flight to value there. So certainly, that's a growth initiative. We've talked about how over time, we want to grow that business from around 20% or 21% of the business to 25%. You'll see us continue to lean into that and grow that business. You'll see us continue to lean into our everyday value proposition and really highlight those and feature those in marketing. And you'll see us use promotions around the key must-win shopping moments on the calendar to make sure that we're driving traffic into our store and winning that driveway decision. And then at the end of the seasons, clearance is another way to deliver value. So all those things are parts of our playbook. We're definitely leaning into them at the appropriate time to deliver value to the customer. We think our position as a value leader in the space gives us a really good position to be in as the customer is under pressure.

就我們如何建立購買而言，是的，客戶正在被價值所吸引。我們看到這有幾種不同的表達方式。有時我們會談論一些自有品牌組合。自有品牌業務比我們的一些國內品牌業務稍好一些，我們推斷這是向那裡的價值轉移。當然，這是一項成長舉措。我們已經討論過，隨著時間的推移，我們希望將該業務從佔業務的 20% 或 21% 左右增長到 25%。您將看到我們繼續致力於這一領域並發展該業務。您將看到我們繼續致力於我們的日常價值主張，並真正突出這些價值主張並在行銷中突出這些價值主張。您會看到我們圍繞著日曆上必須贏得的關鍵購物時刻進行促銷活動，以確保我們吸引人流進入我們的商店並贏得車道決策。然後在賽季結束時，清倉是提供價值的另一種方式。所以所有這些都是我們劇本的一部分。我們肯定會在適當的時候依靠它們來為客戶提供價值。我們認為，作為該領域的價值領導者，我們在客戶面臨壓力時處於非常有利的位置。

Okay. So, that was our last question. I just want to say from a recap perspective, our approach over the remainder of the year is going to take the appropriate actions to navigate the short-term softness in customer demand with really a focus on delivering new and innovative products, offering compelling value in order to help our customers stretch their holiday budgets, while also thoughtfully managing expense and inventories.

好的。這是我們的最後一個問題。我只是想說，從回顧的角度來看，我們在今年剩餘時間內的做法將採取適當的行動來應對客戶需求的短期疲軟，真正專注於提供新的創新產品，在以下領域提供令人信服的價值：以幫助我們的客戶延長假期預算，同時周到地管理費用和庫存。

On a longer-term basis, we believe we've got a unique concept that resonates with active young families. We believe our model is scalable and transportable, and we're going to continue to make investments in our future growth so we can enable more people to have fun out there by shopping Academy.

從長遠來看，我們相信我們擁有能夠與活躍的年輕家庭產生共鳴的獨特理念。我們相信我們的模型具有可擴展性和可移植性，我們將繼續對未來的成長進行投資，以便讓更多的人能夠透過購物學院獲得樂趣。

In closing, I want to thank all 22,000 of our Academy associates for all the hard work and effort they put in and will still put in this holiday. Our employees are kind of a key ingredient of our secret sauce. And I know that every one of our team members is going to give it their best during Q4 and in the future.

最後，我要感謝我們學院的所有 22,000 名員工，感謝他們在這個假期中付出的辛勤工作和努力。我們的員工是我們秘密武器的關鍵成分。我知道我們的每一位團隊成員都會在第四季和未來竭盡全力。

So, thanks for joining us today, and have a great holiday, everybody.

感謝您今天加入我們，祝大家假期愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, this call has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，本次通話現已結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路。謝謝。