Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Academy Sports and Outdoors Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) This call is being recorded (Operator Instructions)

早上好，女士們，先生們，歡迎參加 Academy Sports and Outdoors 第三季度 2022 財年業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）正在錄製此通話（操作員說明）

I will now turn the call over to Matt Hodges, Vice President of Investor Relations for Academy Sports and Outdoors. Matt, please -- please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給學院體育和戶外投資者關係副總裁 Matt Hodges。馬特，拜託——請繼續。

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining the Academy's. Participating on the call are Ken Hicks, Chairman, President and CEO; Michael Mullican, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Steve Lawrence, Executive Vice President and Chief Merchandising Officer.

大家早上好，感謝你們加入學院。參加電話會議的有董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Ken Hicks； Michael Mullican，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；執行副總裁兼首席營銷官 Steve Lawrence。

As a reminder, statements in today's earnings release and the comments made by management during this call may be considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors identified in the earnings release and in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to revise any forward-looking statements.

提醒一下，今天的收益發布中的聲明和管理層在本次電話會議上發表的評論可能被視為前瞻性聲明。這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與我們的預期和預測存在重大差異。這些風險和不確定性包括但不限於收益發布和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中確定的因素。公司不承擔修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's remarks also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release which is available at investors.academy.com.

今天的評論還涉及某些非 GAAP 財務措施。與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對賬包含在今天的收益發布中，可在 investors.academy.com 上獲取。

Unless otherwise noted, comparisons are to 2021 with 2019 comparisons also provided where appropriate, to benchmark performance given the impact of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021.

除非另有說明，否則比較是與 2021 年的比較，並在適當的情況下提供 2019 年的比較，以在 2020 年和 2021 年大流行的影響下對績效進行基準測試。

I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Ken Hicks.

我現在將把電話轉給我們的首席執行官 Ken Hicks。

Thank you, Matt. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. As we anniversary our second year as a public company, I'm proud of the operational and organizational initiatives we've undertaken that have transformed the company and helped drive our solid financial performance.

謝謝你，馬特。早上好，感謝大家今天加入我們。在我們作為上市公司第二年的周年紀念之際，我為我們採取的運營和組織舉措感到自豪，這些舉措改變了公司並幫助推動了我們穩健的財務業績。

Our talented team of retail leaders have improved every aspect of our company when compared to pre-IPO Academy, including improving our merchandise planning and allocation processes, building an outstanding assortment of good, better, best products for our customers while maintaining our focus on value, significantly enhancing our e-commerce capabilities, increasing customer loyalty through the launch of the Academy credit card, modernizing our marketing along with our store experience and meaningfully improving our financial stability.

與 IPO 前的學院相比，我們才華橫溢的零售領導團隊改進了我們公司的各個方面，包括改進我們的商品規劃和分配流程，為我們的客戶打造優質、更好、最好的產品，同時保持我們對價值的關注，顯著增強我們的電子商務能力，通過推出學院信用卡提高客戶忠誠度，使我們的營銷和商店體驗現代化，並顯著提高我們的財務穩定性。

We are in excellent financial health capable of self-funding all of our capital priorities, which include new store expansion, omnichannel growth, technology enhancements, increasing supply chain capacity and rewarding shareholders through share repurchase and dividends. The third quarter was challenging and our reported net sales of $1.49 billion, a negative 7.2% comparable sales were below our expectations. We saw sales increases in footwear and apparel, but experienced sales decline in outdoors and sports and recreation.

我們的財務狀況非常好，能夠為我們所有的資本優先事項提供自籌資金，包括新店擴張、全渠道增長、技術改進、增加供應鏈能力以及通過股票回購和股息回報股東。第三季度充滿挑戰，我們報告的淨銷售額為 14.9 億美元，可比銷售額為負 7.2%，低於我們的預期。我們看到鞋類和服裝的銷售額有所增長，但戶外、運動和休閒的銷售額有所下降。

Steve will discuss our sales results in more detail later in the call.

史蒂夫稍後將在電話中更詳細地討論我們的銷售結果。

When comparing third quarter sales to 2019, we maintained a 30% growth trend, which is in line with what we have seen year-to-date. We believe this is a strong indicator that our business is baseline at a much higher level post pandemic, and there is ongoing durable consumer demand for the sports and outdoors category.

將第三季度銷售額與 2019 年進行比較時，我們保持了 30% 的增長趨勢，這與我們今年迄今看到的情況一致。我們認為這是一個強有力的指標，表明我們的業務在大流行後處於更高水平的基線，並且消費者對運動和戶外類別的需求持續存在。

Looking at our third quarter profitability. Adjusted earnings per share were $1.69, which is below last year, but in line with our expectations. We maintain a 35% gross margin rate with an improved mix of products, increasing merchandise margin rates and controlling cost. We also held a double-digit EBIT margin. And for the second year in a row, expect to end the fiscal year with an annualized EBIT margin rate above 10%, which is 1 of our long-term financial goals.

看看我們第三季度的盈利能力。調整後每股收益為 1.69 美元，低於去年，但符合我們的預期。我們通過改善產品組合、提高商品利潤率和控製成本來維持 35% 的毛利率。我們還擁有兩位數的息稅前利潤率。連續第二年，預計本財年結束時年化息稅前利潤率將超過 10%，這是我們的長期財務目標之一。

The freshness and in-stock position of our inventory across most of our categories is in very good shape. We believe we have the right amount of product from key partners like Nike, adidas and Under Armour to offer customers what they are looking for this holiday. There will likely be more promotional activity in the marketplace this holiday season, but we are prepared to be competitive with our own plan promotions as well as our everyday value positioning, which is in our plans.

我們大多數類別的庫存的新鮮度和庫存狀況都非常好。我們相信我們擁有來自 Nike、adidas 和 Under Armour 等主要合作夥伴的適量產品，可以為客戶提供他們在這個假期尋找的產品。這個假期市場上可能會有更多的促銷活動，但我們準備好通過我們自己的促銷計劃以及我們計劃中的日常價值定位來競爭。

While we know that our customers have been under inflationary pressure and do not have the stimulus money they had last year, they are still focused on health and wellness, pursuing their hobbies and winning their kids to participate in their sports and activities.

雖然我們知道我們的客戶一直承受著通貨膨脹壓力並且沒有去年的刺激資金，但他們仍然專注於健康和保健，追求自己的愛好並贏得孩子參加他們的運動和活動。

Our good, better, best assortment of top national brands and strong private brands available at everyday value prices allows them to continue to do that at an affordable price. As a reminder, the majority of our customers are in the middle 3 quintiles ranging from $50,000 to $150,000 in annual household income. There's also an ongoing population migration to our base in the South and Southeastern United States. We currently operate in some of the fastest-growing markets in the country, such as Austin, Texas; Atlanta, Georgia; and Raleigh, North Carolina.

我們以日常價值價格提供的優質、更好、最好的頂級民族品牌和強大的自有品牌使他們能夠以負擔得起的價格繼續這樣做。提醒一下，我們的大多數客戶都處於家庭年收入在 50,000 美元到 150,000 美元之間的中間 3 個五分之一。還有一個持續的人口遷移到我們在美國南部和東南部的基地。我們目前在該國一些增長最快的市場開展業務，例如德克薩斯州奧斯汀；美國佐治亞州亞特蘭大;和北卡羅來納州的羅利。

We are uniquely positioned to benefit from this shift and intend to capitalize on it by executing our growth plan of opening 80 to 100 new stores between 2022 and the end of 2026. During Q3, we opened 4 stores in Richmond, Virginia; Atlanta, Georgia; Lexington, Kentucky; and Jeffersonville, Indiana. We have also opened 3 stores in Q4, 1 here in Houston, 1 in Tampa Bay, Florida and 1 in a new state for us, Barboursville, West Virginia. These store openings were a mix of locations in existing, adjacent and new markets. We are measuring and analyzing the different market types and all aspects of the opening process, marketing, merchandising, localization, seasonality and staffing to gain a better understanding of our approach and optimize our process as we open even more stores in 2023 and beyond.

我們處於獨特的位置，可以從這一轉變中受益，並打算通過執行我們的增長計劃來利用它，即在 2022 年至 2026 年底之間開設 80 至 100 家新店。在第三季度，我們在弗吉尼亞州里士滿開設了 4 家店；美國佐治亞州亞特蘭大;肯塔基州列剋星敦；和印第安納州的杰斐遜維爾。我們還在第四季度開設了 3 家商店，1 家在休斯頓，1 家在佛羅里達州坦帕灣，1 家在我們的新州，西弗吉尼亞州巴伯斯維爾。這些新店開張是在現有市場、鄰近市場和新市場的混合地點。我們正在衡量和分析不同的市場類型以及開業流程、營銷、銷售、本地化、季節性和人員配置的各個方面，以便更好地了解我們的方法並優化我們的流程，因為我們將在 2023 年及以後開設更多門店。

I want to give a big thanks to all of the team members who helped execute through successful store openings. The Academy team remains focused on executing our priorities to achieve our vision to become the best sports and outdoors retailer in the country, while providing fun for all through assortment, value and by delivering a great experience for our customers and creating value for our stakeholders.

我要非常感謝幫助執行成功開店的所有團隊成員。 Academy 團隊仍然專注於執行我們的優先事項，以實現我們成為美國最好的運動和戶外用品零售商的願景，同時通過分類、價值和為我們的客戶提供出色的體驗並為我們的利益相關者創造價值來為所有人提供樂趣。

I will now turn the call over to Michael to provide more detail on our third quarter's financial results, new stores and provide an update on our 2022 guidance. Michael?

我現在將電話轉給邁克爾，提供有關我們第三季度財務業績、新店的更多詳細信息，並提供我們 2022 年指導的更新。邁克爾？

Thanks, Ken, and good morning, everyone. Academy delivered another profitable quarter for shareholders despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds by prudently managing inventory, expanding merchandise margins and controlling expenses. Since going public more than 2 years ago, we have consistently demonstrated that we have achieved a material step-up of our earnings potential and free cash flow generation compared to years past.

謝謝，肯，大家早上好。 Academy 通過審慎管理庫存、擴大商品利潤率和控制開支，儘管宏觀經濟持續逆風，但仍為股東帶來了另一個盈利季度。自兩年多前上市以來，我們一直證明，與過去幾年相比，我們的盈利潛力和自由現金流產生有了實質性的提升。

In the third quarter, net sales were $1.49 billion, with comparable sales down 7.2% as we anniversaried a strong Q3 2021 comp of 17.9%. The sales decline was a result of lighter traffic and fewer transactions compared to last year. But overall, we have maintained the market share gained over the last 2 years in each of our merchandise divisions. We saw share gains this quarter in apparel and footwear, resulting in our sales mix being more balanced between hard and soft goods compared to recent quarters.

第三季度，淨銷售額為 14.9 億美元，可比銷售額下降 7.2%，因為我們迎來了 2021 年第三季度 17.9% 的強勁增長。與去年相比，銷售額下降的原因是客流量減少和交易量減少。但總的來說，我們在每個商品部門都保持了過去兩年獲得的市場份額。我們在本季度看到了服裝和鞋類的份額增長，因此與最近幾個季度相比，我們的銷售組合在硬商品和軟商品之間更加平衡。

Our e-commerce sales increased 10.5%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth and represented 9.5% of merchandise sales. When compared to Q3 2019, our e-commerce business has grown 173% and the penetration rate has more than doubled. As we have stated before, we believe academy.com is a competitive differentiator for us in a very meaningful part of our future growth that we intend to invest in for the foreseeable future.

我們的電子商務銷售額增長了 10.5%，連續第五個季度實現兩位數增長，佔商品銷售額的 9.5%。與 2019 年第三季度相比，我們的電子商務業務增長了 173%，滲透率增長了一倍多。正如我們之前所說，我們相信 academy.com 對我們來說是一個競爭優勢，在我們未來增長的一個非常有意義的部分，我們打算在可預見的未來進行投資。

As Ken said, we have completed all 9 of our planned store openings for 2022. Academy stores have the highest store productivity in our peer group, making our new stores an effective use of our capital with a high return on investment. During Q3, our existing store productivity was once again best-in-class. Trailing 12-month sales per square foot were $351 per foot and trailing 12-month operating income per store was $3.2 million.

正如 Ken 所說，我們已經完成了 2022 年計劃開設的所有 9 家門店。Academy 門店在我們的同行群體中擁有最高的門店生產力，這使我們的新門店能夠有效利用我們的資本，並獲得高投資回報。在第三季度，我們現有的商店生產力再次成為同類最佳。每平方英尺過去 12 個月的銷售額為每英尺 351 美元，每家商店過去 12 個月的營業收入為 320 萬美元。

Gross margin dollars during the quarter were $522.5 million with a rate of 35% only 20 basis points below last year's record third quarter of 35.2%. As Steve will tell you more about in a minute, we increased our merchandise margins compared to last year despite various external pressures as our refined merchandise planning and allocation processes continue to generate margin opportunities. We also saw a shift in our sales mix towards soft goods. These margin gains were partially offset by an increase in e-commerce shipping costs and shrink during the quarter.

本季度的毛利率為 5.225 億美元，毛利率為 35%，僅比去年第三季度創紀錄的 35.2% 低 20 個基點。正如史蒂夫將在一分鐘內告訴您更多信息，儘管存在各種外部壓力，但我們的商品利潤率與去年相比有所增加，因為我們完善的商品規劃和分配流程繼續產生利潤率機會。我們還看到我們的銷售組合轉向軟商品。這些利潤率增長被本季度電子商務運輸成本的增加和收縮部分抵消。

Since the pandemic, we have over-indexed on the hard goods side of the business that as our mix shifts back to soft goods, our gross margin rate should benefit. SG&A expenses were 23% of sales, a 140 basis point increase compared to last year. The change was primarily a result of fixed cost deleverage from the decline in sales and additional preopening expenses associated with opening new stores.

自大流行以來，我們在業務的硬商品方面的指數過高，隨著我們的組合轉向軟商品，我們的毛利率應該會受益。 SG&A 費用佔銷售額的 23%，比去年增加 140 個基點。這一變化主要是由於銷售額下降和與開設新店相關的額外開業前費用導致的固定成本去槓桿化。

Operating income for the quarter was $179.5 million or 12% of sales. Academy has now delivered double-digit operating margins for 7 straight quarters. Through the first 3 quarters of this year, we have generated over $640 million of operating income, which is more than the company earned in all of fiscal 2019 and 2020 combined. This is a clear indicator that the operational and organizational improvements made over the past few years have structurally changed and enhanced the earnings power of Academy.

本季度營業收入為 1.795 億美元，佔銷售額的 12%。 Academy 現已連續 7 個季度實現兩位數的營業利潤率。今年前三個季度，我們創造了超過 6.4 億美元的營業收入，超過了公司 2019 財年和 2020 財年全年的總和。這清楚地表明，過去幾年在運營和組織方面所做的改進已經在結構上改變並增強了 Academy 的盈利能力。

Third quarter GAAP diluted earnings per share were $1.62 per share compared to $1.72 per share last year. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.69 per share compared to $1.75 per share last year.

第三季度 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 1.62 美元，而去年同期為 1.72 美元。調整後的攤薄每股收益為每股 1.69 美元，而去年為每股 1.75 美元。

Looking at the balance sheet. Academy ended the quarter with $318 million in cash and had no outstanding borrowings on our $1 billion credit facility. Our positive cash flow generation remains strong as we delivered $50.8 million in net cash from operating activities. During the third quarter, we executed on our capital allocation plan, in part by investing in the following: opening 4 new stores, repurchasing 2.2 million shares for approximately $100 million, paying out $6 million in dividends, investing in supply chain and technology enhancements and lastly, maintaining a healthy cash balance.

看著資產負債表。 Academy 在本季度結束時擁有 3.18 億美元的現金，並且我們的 10 億美元信貸額度沒有未償還的借款。由於我們從經營活動中交付了 5080 萬美元的淨現金，因此我們的正現金流產生仍然強勁。在第三季度，我們執行了我們的資本配置計劃，部分投資於以下方面：開設 4 家新店，以約 1 億美元的價格回購 220 萬股股票，支付 600 萬美元的股息，投資於供應鍊和技術改進，以及最後，保持健康的現金餘額。

In addition, the Board recently declared a dividend of $0.075 per share payable on January 13, 2023, to stockholders of record as of December 20, 2022. Looking at our inventory, our ending inventory balance was $1.5 billion, a 12.8% increase compared to Q3 2021. When compared to Q3 of 2019, inventory dollars were up 12.3%, while units declined by 10% on the 30% sales increase. This demonstrates that we have effectively managed our inventory while experiencing significant sales growth.

此外，董事會最近宣布將於 2023 年 1 月 13 日向截至 2022 年 12 月 20 日在冊的股東派發每股 0.075 美元的股息。看看我們的存貨，我們的期末存貨餘額為 15 億美元，與去年同期相比增加了 12.8% 2021 年第三季度。與 2019 年第三季度相比，存貨美元增長了 12.3%，而銷售增長 30% 的情況下銷量下降了 10%。這表明我們在銷售顯著增長的同時有效地管理了我們的庫存。

To illustrate, when comparing revenue versus inventory per square foot this quarter to Q3 2019, revenue per square foot has increased 28%, while inventory per square foot has only increased 10%. Lastly, based on our year-to-date results and current trends, we are narrowing our sales and earnings guidance and raising our full year 2022 earnings per share forecast as follows: comparable sales are expected to range from down 6% to down 5%. GAAP income before taxes is expected to range from $790 million to $810 million with an expected gross margin rate of 34% and 34.5%. GAAP net income of between $610 million and $620 million. GAAP diluted earnings per share of $7.25 per share to $7.40 per share.

例如，將本季度的收入與每平方英尺的庫存與 2019 年第三季度進行比較時，每平方英尺的收入增長了 28%，而每平方英尺的庫存僅增長了 10%。最後，根據我們年初至今的業績和當前趨勢，我們正在縮小我們的銷售和盈利指引，並將我們的 2022 年全年每股收益預測上調如下：可比銷售額預計下降 6% 至下降 5% . GAAP 稅前收入預計在 7.9 億美元至 8.1 億美元之間，預計毛利率分別為 34% 和 34.5%。 GAAP 淨收入在 6.1 億美元至 6.2 億美元之間。 GAAP 每股攤薄收益為 7.25 美元至每股 7.40 美元。

Adjusted diluted earnings per share, which excludes certain estimated expenses such as stock compensation and store preopening expenses are now expected to range from $7.50 per share to $7.65 per share. The earnings per share estimates are calculated on an updated share count of 84 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding for the full year and do not include any potential repurchase activity using our remaining $400 million authorization.

調整後的稀釋後每股收益（不包括某些估計費用，如股票補償和商店開業前費用）現在預計在每股 7.50 美元至 7.65 美元之間。每股收益估計數是根據更新後的全年流通在外稀釋加權平均股數 8400 萬股計算得出的，不包括使用我們剩餘的 4 億美元授權進行的任何潛在回購活動。

We remain confident that our business model, driven by our transformed retail capabilities and the everyday value of our products positions us well to navigate this uncertain environment and to win this holiday season, but also to drive long-term sales and profits.

我們仍然相信，我們的商業模式受我們轉型後的零售能力和我們產品的日常價值的驅動，使我們能夠很好地應對這種不確定的環境並贏得這個假期，同時也能推動長期銷售和利潤。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Steve, who will give you more details around our merchandising and operations performance. Steve?

有了這個，我現在將把電話轉給史蒂夫，他將為您提供有關我們的商品銷售和運營績效的更多詳細信息。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Michael. As you heard earlier, our Q3 sales came in at $1.49 billion, which was a 7.2% comp decline versus 2021, but up 30% versus our 2019 baseline. This is a little lower than the first 2 quarters, which were up 36% versus '19, but we're pleased that we continue to hold on to the large majority of the gains from the past couple of years despite a more challenging macroeconomic environment. It was also good to see 3 of our 4 divisions showing an improvement in the trend versus last year during third quarter.

謝謝，邁克爾。正如您之前聽到的那樣，我們第三季度的銷售額為 14.9 億美元，與 2021 年相比下降了 7.2%，但與 2019 年的基準相比增長了 30%。這略低於前兩個季度，前兩個季度比 19 年增長了 36%，但我們很高興儘管宏觀經濟環境更具挑戰性，但我們繼續保持過去幾年的大部分收益.很高興看到我們 4 個部門中的 3 個部門在第三季度的趨勢與去年相比有所改善。

Footwear was our best performing division 32% versus '19. And -- We got off to a strong start during back-to-school and footwear and saw the momentum carried throughout the quarter. As you'd expect, a lot of the categories that spike during back-to-school such as kids shoes and cleats or some of the leading performers during the quarter. We also continue to see strong sales in key brands such as Brooks, Crocs and SKECHERS along with a very successful launch in Haidu across all of our stores.

鞋類是我們表現最好的部門，比 19 年高 32%。而且——我們在返校和製鞋期間取得了良好的開端，並且看到了整個季度的發展勢頭。如您所料，許多類別在返校期間激增，例如童鞋和防滑釘，或者本季度的一些領先產品。我們還繼續看到 Brooks、Crocs 和 SKECHERS 等主要品牌的強勁銷售，以及我們所有門店在海都的成功發布。

Apparel sales also rebounded in Q3 with an increase of up 0.5% versus last year, which was a dramatic improvement versus our spring trend. White footwear. We continue to run double-digit comps for 2019 baseline of up 24%. Back-to-school results were also strong in apparel and the momentum that started early on carried forward into the remainder of the quarter. This momentum, coupled with an improved inventory position and top brands such as Nike, Columbia and Carhart, versus last year, helped spark selling in fall seasonal categories, such as fleece and outerwear.

服裝銷售額在第三季度也出現反彈，與去年相比增長 0.5%，與我們的春季趨勢相比有了顯著改善。白色鞋履。我們繼續為 2019 年基線運行兩位數的增長 24%。開學季服裝方面的成績也很強勁，而且這種勢頭從早期開始就一直延續到本季度的剩餘時間。這種勢頭，加上庫存狀況的改善以及耐克、哥倫比亞和卡哈特等頂級品牌與去年相比的增長，幫助激發了羊毛和外套等秋季季節性品類的銷售。

While our sports and direct business in Q3 was down 4% to last year, it was also an improvement versus our spring trend and was up 40% versus 2019. We continue to see solid gains in our sporting goods business with the strength across key categories such as football, baseball and golf. The softest category in this area remains the home fitness business, which declined double digits versus last year but has stabilized at up over 25% versus our 2019 baseline.

雖然我們在第三季度的體育和直銷業務比去年下降了 4%，但與我們的春季趨勢相比也有所改善，比 2019 年增長了 40%。我們繼續看到我們的體育用品業務在關鍵類別中的實力穩步增長如足球、棒球和高爾夫。該領域最疲軟的類別仍然是家庭健身業務，與去年相比下降了兩位數，但與我們 2019 年的基準相比穩定在 25% 以上。

Our biggest challenge during Q3 was our outdoor business, which posted an 18.3% decline and was the only category where Q3 sales softened versus the first half trend. It's also important to note that we continue to hold on the majority of the gains we picked up over the past couple of years in outdoor with this business still rang up 30% versus 2019. Soft goods category was hunting where we struggled to anniversary high double-digit comps in ammunition from last year. We're up against the sales spike driven by large receipts that were helping us get back in stock during Q3 of 2021. Broadly speaking, the overall inventory level from ammunition have stabilized across the industry over the past year. We started to see a lot of the stock up surge activity by consumers drop-off, which has resulted in slowing demand.

我們在第三季度面臨的最大挑戰是我們的戶外業務，該業務下降了 18.3%，是第三季度銷售額與上半年趨勢相比出現疲軟的唯一類別。同樣重要的是要注意，我們繼續保持過去幾年在戶外業務中獲得的大部分收益，該業務與 2019 年相比仍增長了 30%。軟商品類別正在努力實現週年紀念高翻倍- 去年彈藥的數字補償。 2021 年第 3 季度，大量收入幫助我們恢復庫存，導致銷售激增。從廣義上講，彈藥的整體庫存水平在過去一年中已趨於穩定。我們開始看到消費者減少導致大量庫存激增，這導致需求放緩。

While running negative comps versus last year, the ammunition business continues to run up triple digits year-to-date versus 2019, and we saw the declines versus 2021 start to lessen as we got deeper into the quarter. To sum it up, the miss in outdoor, largely driven by ammunition, comprised over 100% of our drop for the company, so stabilizing this business is a clear priority for us.

儘管與去年相比業績為負，但彈藥業務今年迄今與 2019 年相比繼續增長三位數，隨著我們進入本季度，我們看到與 2021 年相比的下降開始減少。總而言之，主要由彈藥驅動的戶外失誤占我們公司下降的 100% 以上，因此穩定這項業務是我們的首要任務。

Shifting to margins. As planned, we held on to most of the gains we've made over the past couple of years. Gross margin rate for Q3 came in at 35%, which is a 20 basis point decline versus '21, was up 340 basis points versus 2019. Similar to the last couple of quarters, beneath the surface, our merchandise margin was up 60 basis points versus last year and continues to run well ahead of 2019 levels. We attribute the continued strength in gross margin to a combination of the hard work the teams have done over the past couple of years around improved buying and planning and allocation disciplines, coupled with a favorable mix of sales in the higher-margin categories of apparel and footwear.

轉移到利潤率。按照計劃，我們保留了過去幾年取得的大部分成果。第三季度的毛利率為 35%，比 21 年下降 20 個基點，比 2019 年上升 340 個基點。與過去幾個季度類似，在表面之下，我們的商品利潤率上升了 60 個基點與去年相比，並繼續遠遠領先於 2019 年的水平。我們將毛利率的持續走強歸因於團隊在過去幾年中圍繞改善採購、規劃和分配紀律所做的辛勤工作，以及高利潤類別服裝和產品的有利銷售組合。鞋類。

As we finish out the year, we built in a well thought-out promotional calendar for this Q4. This cadence is more aggressive than the past 2 holiday seasons and is focused on driving traffic to our stores by providing our customers with outstanding deals on giftable items. These additional promotions are accounted for in the guidance Michael discussed earlier. And our expectation is that despite this uptick in discounting, we will continue to hold on to most of the margin gains from the past couple of years.

當我們結束這一年時，我們為第四季度製定了一個經過深思熟慮的促銷日曆。這種節奏比過去的 2 個假日季節更具侵略性，並且專注於通過為我們的客戶提供出色的禮品交易來增加我們商店的客流量。這些額外的促銷活動已在 Michael 之前討論的指南中說明。我們的預期是，儘管折扣有所增加，但我們將繼續保持過去幾年的大部分利潤率增長。

We also believe that our everyday value pricing, coupled with our thoughtful promotional strategy, will allow us to maintain our position as a value leader in our space and gain market share during Q4. In terms of inventory, our teams continue to do an outstanding job in managing through a challenging environment. We ended the third quarter with inventory up 13% versus last year, which is lower than the 17% increase we entered the quarter with.

我們還相信，我們的日常價值定價，加上我們深思熟慮的促銷策略，將使我們能夠在我們的空間中保持我們作為價值領導者的地位，並在第四季度獲得市場份額。在庫存方面，我們的團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中繼續出色地進行管理。我們在第三季度末的庫存比去年同期增長了 13%，低於我們進入本季度時的 17% 增幅。

Our inventory levels and content are in the best position they've been in over the past couple of fourth quarters putting us in a prime position to take advantage of the holiday traffic surge. Another sales driver for us is continuing to lean into new initiatives and brands that resonate with our core target customers. couple of funding ideas that we put in place for this holiday, including launching Christmas themed Magellan Outdoors apparel, expanding into gas powered ride-ons from Coleman along with adding [Yukai] and BioLite FirePit into our outdoor heating. All of these ideas should help reinforce Academy as the best destination for all things sports and outdoors.

我們的庫存水平和內容處於過去幾個第四季度的最佳位置，這使我們處於利用假期流量激增的優勢。我們的另一個銷售驅動力是繼續傾向於與我們的核心目標客戶產生共鳴的新舉措和品牌。我們為這個假期提出了幾個籌資想法，包括推出聖誕節主題的 Magellan Outdoors 服裝，擴展到 Coleman 的汽油動力騎行，以及將 [Yukai] 和 BioLite FirePit 添加到我們的戶外供暖系統中。所有這些想法都應該有助於加強學院作為所有運動和戶外活動的最佳目的地。

The team has worked hard to get back in stock and ensure that our inventory is much better balanced to the position in the key brands and categories will drive customers into our stores for this holiday. Our everyday value pricing, coupled with a strong well-thought-out promotional cadence will allow us to deliver a strong value proposition this holiday.

該團隊努力恢復庫存，並確保我們的庫存與主要品牌和類別中的位置更好地平衡，這將在這個假期吸引顧客光顧我們的商店。我們的日常價值定價，加上經過深思熟慮的強有力的促銷節奏，將使我們能夠在這個假期提供強有力的價值主張。

When you combine that with our broad assortment of the most desirable brands and our strong in-store experience, we believe that we have a winning formula to continue to pick up market share. Finally, we also continue to lean into more digitally targeted advertising, while reducing our reliance on traditional broadcast and print. This shift helps improve our overall marketing reach and effectiveness while also allowing us to be much more nimble in reacting to pricing promotions.

當您將其與我們廣泛的最受歡迎品牌和我們強大的店內體驗相結合時，我們相信我們有一個成功的公式來繼續擴大市場份額。最後，我們還繼續傾向於更有針對性的數字廣告，同時減少對傳統廣播和印刷的依賴。這種轉變有助於提高我們的整體營銷範圍和有效性，同時也使我們能夠更加靈活地對價格促銷做出反應。

In closing, we believe that we have the proper strategies in place and are well positioned to drive the business and continue to gain market share during the very important Q4 time frame and beyond.

最後，我們相信我們已經制定了適當的戰略，並且有能力在非常重要的第四季度及以後推動業務發展並繼續獲得市場份額。

Now I'd like to turn the call back over to Ken for some closing comments. Ken?

現在我想把電話轉回給 Ken，徵求一些結束意見。肯？

Thank you, Steve. Despite the challenging macro environment, we've delivered a solid operational and financial performance this year. We've made significant improvements over the past several years, resulting in our profitability being materially higher than just a few years ago. This is the result of our dedicated team working diligently toward our vision of becoming the best sports and outdoors retailer in the country.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，但我們今年的運營和財務業績依然穩健。我們在過去幾年取得了顯著進步，導致我們的盈利能力比幾年前大幅提高。這是我們敬業的團隊努力實現我們成為該國最好的運動和戶外用品零售商的願景的結果。

Academy is well positioned to have a successful holiday season. This past Black Friday was the largest sales day in the history of the company, and we are maintaining the 30%-plus sales trend compared to 2019. That being said, we still have the biggest 3 weeks of the year ahead of us, but we are confident in our plan. Academy has enormous future potential growth opportunities from opening new stores, expanding omnichannel, improving existing stores and from operational improvements. There's a lot to be excited about, and we are prepared to execute to achieve our near- and long-term goals.

學院已準備好迎接一個成功的假期。過去的這個黑色星期五是公司歷史上最大的銷售日，與 2019 年相比，我們保持了 30% 以上的銷售趨勢。話雖如此，我們仍然有一年中最大的 3 週，但我們對我們的計劃充滿信心。 Academy 擁有巨大的未來潛在增長機會，包括開設新店、擴展全渠道、改進現有商店和改進運營。有很多令人興奮的事情，我們準備好執行以實現我們的近期和長期目標。

I'd like to close by thanking all of the Academy sports and outdoors team members and wishing everyone a joyful holiday season. We'll now open up the call for your questions. Thank you.

最後，我要感謝所有學院運動和戶外團隊成員，並祝大家度過一個愉快的假期。我們現在將打開您的問題的電話。謝謝你。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Heinbockel with Guggenheim.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自古根海姆的 John Heinbockel。

I wanted to start with as you think about the fourth quarter, right, the implied comp right at the midpoint is down 2. That's the sort of same trend line. So not a multiyear improvement. But how -- when you think about the 4 categories of the 4 divisions, and you think about the prospect for improvement, right, sequentially in each of those 4, where do you see the biggest opportunities, right, based on the merchandise content and the behavior of your customer?

我想從你考慮第四季度開始，對，中點的隱含補償下降了 2。這是相同的趨勢線。所以不是多年的改進。但是如何——當你考慮 4 個部門的 4 個類別，並且你考慮改進的前景時，正確的，在這 4 個中的每一個中，你在哪裡看到最大的機會，正確的，基於商品內容和你的客戶的行為？

John, thanks for the question. We obviously have seen good strength in our soft lines, apparel and footwear categories, and they continue to provide an opportunity as well as team sports, which has been a very good business with us. So those are 3 of the businesses that I think we have good opportunities with. That said, there's still challenges out there in some of the outdoor areas. But I'll let Steve provide a little more color.

約翰，謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們在軟線、服裝和鞋類類別中看到了強大的實力，它們繼續提供機會和團隊運動，這對我們來說是一項非常好的業務。所以這些是我認為我們有很好機會的 3 家企業。也就是說，在一些戶外區域仍然存在挑戰。但我會讓史蒂夫提供更多顏色。

Yes. If you go back to a year ago, the supply chain was still pretty much in disarray. When you look at where we're sitting today in terms of our ownership and seasonal categories, cold weather goods, giftable items for Christmas, we're in a way better shape than we were a year ago. So we feel pretty confident about our inventory composition there. We feel like our inventory is under control and that it's well balanced across all the areas.

是的。如果你回到一年前，供應鏈仍然非常混亂。當你看看我們今天在我們的所有權和季節性類別、寒冷天氣商品、聖誕節禮品方面所處的位置時，我們的狀態比一年前更好。因此，我們對那裡的庫存構成非常有信心。我們覺得我們的庫存在控制之中，並且在所有領域都非常平衡。

The 1 category called out as being challenging for us was the outdoor category and beneath that, it's [amal] is really the biggest challenge there. The good news is we're starting to see the trend line versus I get a little better. It's still negative, but it's less negative than it was early in the quarter, and we're starting to see that business stabilize. So that's going to probably be a challenge for us throughout the remainder of this year. But we do feel like we're seeing strength in the other categories, which is helping offset some of that.

被稱為對我們具有挑戰性的第一個類別是戶外類別，在此之下，[amal] 確實是那裡最大的挑戰。好消息是我們開始看到趨勢線與我相比有所好轉。它仍然是負面的，但不如本季度初那麼負面，我們開始看到該業務趨於穩定。因此，在今年餘下的時間裡，這對我們來說可能是一個挑戰。但我們確實覺得我們在其他類別中看到了優勢，這有助於抵消其中的一些影響。

And John, a couple of more points in addition to the categories. We expect to have a good finish to December. The guidance that we provided implies that we're going to be up 30% to 2019, which is consistent with recent trends. That's in line with our quarterly and monthly builds, which are usually a pretty reliable indicator of our performance. .

約翰，除了類別之外還有幾點。我們預計到 12 月會有一個好的結束。我們提供的指導意味著到 2019 年我們將增長 30%，這與最近的趨勢一致。這符合我們的季度和月度構建，這通常是我們性能的一個非常可靠的指標。 .

In addition to being better in stock and key holiday programs, as Steve mentioned, we're looking at the consumer and how they are behaving. We have some planned traffic dropping promotions, and we were not in a position to do that last year because we didn't have the inventory. And if you recall, last year, there was a scarcity of goods in the market, which led to a lot of early purchasing. This year, there's an abundance of goods.

正如史蒂夫提到的，除了在股票和關鍵假期計劃方面做得更好之外，我們還在關註消費者以及他們的行為方式。我們有一些計劃中的流量下降促銷活動，但去年我們無法這樣做，因為我們沒有庫存。如果你還記得，去年，市場上的商品稀缺，導致大量提前採購。今年貨源充足。

And so we think that, coupled with a favorable calendar, there's an extra Saturday this year before Christmas, we'll probably see some late shopping the weather hasn't been terribly helpful to sales. It's been a pretty warm start to the holiday season. So we think the last couple of weeks, we'll see a lot of sales coming late. And as a reminder, we've invested a lot in our buy-online-pick-up-in-store business. Our customers are leaning into that, and we're going to be in a good spot to deliver for them down the stretch.

因此我們認為，加上有利的日曆，今年聖誕節前多了一個星期六，我們可能會看到一些遲到的購物天氣對銷售沒有太大幫助。這是假期的一個非常溫暖的開始。所以我們認為在過去幾週，我們會看到很多銷售遲到。提醒一下，我們在網上購買店內提貨業務上投入了大量資金。我們的客戶正在傾向於這一點，我們將處於一個很好的位置，為他們提供服務。

And then maybe as a follow-up, right, on supply chain, you've had this distribution initiative for a little bit. Where do we sit on that? And when you think about capacity, I know you've got capacity for the time being. But as you look out capacity in the 3 DCs and then at some point, I guess you'll need a fourth DC, I guess, further north. How do you think about the network over the next 3 or 4 years?

然後也許作為後續行動，對，在供應鏈上，你有一點這種分銷計劃。我們坐在那兒呢？當你考慮容量時，我知道你暫時有容量。但是，當您查看 3 個 DC 的容量，然後在某個時候，我想您將需要第四個 DC，我猜，在更北的地方。您如何看待未來 3 或 4 年的網絡？

You're correct. At some point, we need a fourth DC and then we'll need a fifth. And as we grow to reach the potential of the company, we'll probably need a 6th at some point. For the next several years, we're in good shape. We've got plenty of capacity. It is -- we think about the next 5 years of the business, we will start to incur costs and frankly, think about adding a fourth distribution facility. We'll be sit speak more about that later. But for the next several years, probably until 2025, 2026, we're in a good position.

你是對的。在某些時候，我們需要第四個 DC，然後我們將需要第五個。隨著我們成長為發揮公司的潛力，我們可能在某個時候需要第 6 個。在接下來的幾年裡，我們的狀態很好。我們有足夠的能力。這是——我們考慮未來 5 年的業務，我們將開始承擔成本，坦率地說，考慮增加第四個分銷設施。稍後我們將坐下來詳細討論。但在接下來的幾年裡，可能到 2025 年、2026 年，我們處於有利地位。

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Daniel Imbro 和 Stephens 的對話。

Congrats. I want to start on the top line, maybe following up on the last line of questioning. So you kind of implied in your continuation of 30% growth versus pre-COVID in the fourth quarter. I know it's early to think about 2023, but I guess maybe could you qualitatively talk about how you're thinking about next year? I mean, if you execute on your merchandising initiatives that Steve, you laid out with the new brand, I mean, can you grow on this new base? Have we rebased to a point where growth is possible as we look out to next year?

恭喜。我想從第一行開始，也許跟進最後一行的提問。所以你有點暗示你在第四季度與 COVID 之前相比繼續增長 30%。我知道現在考慮 2023 年還為時過早，但我想您能否定性地談談您對明年的看法？我的意思是，如果你執行史蒂夫為新品牌制定的營銷計劃，我的意思是，你能在這個新基地上發展嗎？展望明年，我們是否已重新定位到可能實現增長的地步？

I think 1 of the things that we're pretty confident is that we have rebaselined at a higher level. If you go back each quarter this year, it's been in that low to mid-30s in terms of the performance versus 2019. So we do feel like we're going to be building off a higher base. That being said, it's still too early for us, I think, to give guidance for 2023 at this point in time.

我認為我們非常有信心的一件事是我們已經在更高的水平上重新設定了基線。如果你回顧今年每個季度，與 2019 年相比，它的表現一直處於 30 年代中期。所以我們確實覺得我們將建立一個更高的基礎。話雖這麼說，但我認為，現在為 2023 年提供指導還為時過早。

Yes. As Steve said, not prepared to provide guidance for 2023 at this time. I will say, look, we have a few categories that in this quarter comprised 100% of the drop, and they're namely hunting categories, outdoor categories. Those categories are considerably stronger to 2019. And frankly, we expect most -- to maintain most of that gain in 2019 this year and beyond. We've got some categories that were really strong during COVID and people call them COVID categories, COVID winters. Many of those actually haven't reverted to 2019. A great example of the outdoor cooking and outdoor furniture, which collectively in the quarter were higher than they were last year.

是的。正如史蒂夫所說，目前不准備提供 2023 年的指導。我會說，看，我們有幾個類別在本季度佔了 100% 的下降，它們是狩獵類別、戶外類別。這些類別比 2019 年要強得多。坦率地說，我們預計大多數 - 將在今年及以後的 2019 年保持大部分收益。我們有一些類別在 COVID 期間非常強大，人們稱它們為 COVID 類別、COVID 冬天。其中許多實際上還沒有恢復到 2019 年。戶外烹飪和戶外家具的一個很好的例子，該季度的總銷量高於去年。

The rest of the business and the business as a whole is exceptionally healthy. We took share in soft goods this quarter despite being up against a lot of clearance in the market, our inventory position is very healthy. We haven't had to take drastic and dramatic measures to clear inventory like others, retailers in the space have. We've got best in sector free cash flow generation. We continue to deliver best-in-sector store productivity and our EBIT net income rates are higher than many in the sector. So I think we're in a good position to finish this year strong, into next year is strong as we think about the plan for next year and beyond.

其餘業務和整個業務都非常健康。儘管市場清倉很多，但我們本季度在軟商品中佔有一席之地，我們的庫存狀況非常健康。我們不必像該領域的其他零售商那樣採取嚴厲和戲劇性的措施來清理庫存。我們在產生自由現金流方面做得最好。我們繼續提供業內最佳的門店生產力，我們的息稅前淨利潤率高於業內許多公司。因此，我認為我們可以很好地完成今年的強勢，進入明年，因為我們考慮了明年及以後的計劃。

Really helpful color. And then I guess just a follow-up on that. Mike, I know you guys were private during the great Recession, but could you provide any color of just in case study of the kind of benefit you saw from the trade down? It sounds like you guys are bullish that you'd see your everyday value offering maybe helped take share. Can you help quantify what you've seen during past downturns to the data you have on that?

真正有用的顏色。然後我想只是對此的後續行動。邁克，我知道你們在大蕭條期間是私人的，但你能否提供任何顏色的案例研究，以說明你從交易中看到的那種好處？聽起來你們很樂觀，您會看到您每天提供的價值可能有助於分享。您能否幫助量化您在過去經濟低迷期間所看到的數據？

No doubt, none of these economic cycles look exactly like the other, but you try to draw some parallels from it. 2008, 2009 and 2010 were collectively very strong comp years for the company, and those were some tough years. This is a little bit different cycle and that consumer balance sheets are still relatively healthy. That won't last for a heck of a lot longer if inflation rates continue to rise and obviously go into recession, if that occurs, we are in a great position to pick up market share because we're the value player. I think what we've shown is our team, our customers and our business are incredibly resilient through a variety of economic cycles.

毫無疑問，這些經濟周期中沒有一個看起來完全一樣，但你試圖從中得出一些相似之處。 2008 年、2009 年和 2010 年對公司來說總體來說是業績強勁的一年，但也有一些艱難的年份。這是一個有點不同的周期，消費者資產負債表仍然相對健康。如果通貨膨脹率繼續上升並明顯進入衰退，這種情況不會持續太久，如果發生這種情況，我們處於獲得市場份額的有利位置，因為我們是價值玩家。我認為我們所展示的是我們的團隊、我們的客戶和我們的業務在各種經濟周期中都具有令人難以置信的彈性。

Great. I appreciate all the color and best of luck.

偉大的。我欣賞所有的顏色，祝你好運。

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christopher Horvers。

It's Megan Alexander on for Chris. Maybe I just wanted to follow up as well on an earlier question, that 3-year trend of 30% versus 2019. Has that at all improved throughout the quarter in November and into December? You mentioned weather not being helpful. It's gotten a little bit colder. And then it does seem like there's a more normal cadence of holiday shopping this year. So I'm just trying to understand, does that get any better especially as you move through Black Friday, which you mentioned was strong?

這是克里斯的梅根亞歷山大。也許我也想跟進一個較早的問題，即與 2019 年相比 30% 的 3 年趨勢。在 11 月和 12 月的整個季度中，這種情況是否有所改善？你提到天氣沒有幫助。天氣變得有點冷了。而且今年的假日購物節奏似乎更正常了。所以我只是想了解一下，特別是當你度過黑色星期五時，情況會有所好轉嗎？你提到的黑色星期五很強勁？

Yes. The 30% trend has been pretty consistent in the low to mid-30s for the past -- actually all this year. So we have not seen a big shift. The 1 thing I will say is this holiday calendar having lived through it multiple times is 1 that you need to have somewhat of a lead stomach for because we are shifting from, as Michael said, where people last year shopped early because of scarcity, and they're moving back to a later purchase pattern. So -- and we're in line with that purchase pattern right now with our trends so far this quarter.

是的。 30% 的趨勢在過去的 30 年代中期一直保持一致——實際上是今年全年。所以我們沒有看到大的轉變。我要說的一件事是，這個假期日曆已經經歷了多次，你需要有一定的胃口，因為正如邁克爾所說，我們正在從去年人們因為稀缺而提前購物的地方轉變，並且他們正在回到以後的購買模式。所以——我們現在的購買模式與本季度迄今為止的趨勢一致。

But I think that trend for this year probably should continue. The first part of next year as Michael said that the economy is still in a lot of turmoil. We'll continue to be a challenging -- will be a challenging time, but we should be able to perform well at the higher base, as Steve talked about and continued to develop the business so that we can start growth at some point in the near future.

但我認為今年的趨勢可能會繼續下去。明年上半年正如邁克爾所說，經濟仍處於動蕩之中。我們將繼續充滿挑戰 - 將是一個充滿挑戰的時期，但我們應該能夠在更高的基礎上表現良好，正如史蒂夫所說並繼續發展業務，以便我們可以在某個時候開始增長不遠的將來。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then maybe a follow-up for Michael. How are you thinking about working capital and free cash flow generation for the fourth quarter, one would think based on the seasonality that cash should become a source of funds in the fourth quarter. So how should we think about a minimum cash balance as we think more about the potential for additional share repo in fourth quarter?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後可能是邁克爾的後續行動。你如何看待第四季度的營運資金和自由現金流的產生，人們會根據季節性認為現金應該成為第四季度的資金來源。那麼，當我們更多地考慮第四季度額外股票回購的可能性時，我們應該如何考慮最低現金餘額？

No. Great question. I think I will have 1 little nitpick before I get going here. We've got a business that's been performing so well, we should generate cash in every quarter, and that hasn't been the case I think, for a lot of other retailers and certainly us historically. But in the third quarter, which is typically not a source of cash, it was for us, while we were able to invest in the business, correct.

不，很好的問題。我想在我去這里之前我會挑剔 1 個小問題。我們的業務一直表現良好，我們應該在每個季度產生現金，但我認為，對於許多其他零售商，當然也包括我們歷史上的情況，情況並非如此。但在第三季度，這通常不是現金來源，對我們來說是正確的，同時我們能夠投資於業務。

Fourth quarter, we should improve on that and grow the cash balance, and then we'll have to make some decisions like we've been saying. There's no change to our approach. We generated enough cash. We can fund our initiatives and we can take a portfolio approach to capital allocation either through repurchases or potentially been retiring some debt if we thought that was the right thing to do given where interest rates are headed.

第四季度，我們應該改善這一點並增加現金餘額，然後我們將不得不像我們一直在說的那樣做出一些決定。我們的方法沒有改變。我們產生了足夠的現金。我們可以為我們的舉措提供資金，我們可以採取投資組合的方式進行資本配置，要么通過回購，要么如果我們認為在利率走向的情況下這是正確的做法，我們可能會償還一些債務。

Great. Really helpful. Best of luck.

偉大的。真的很有幫助。祝你好運。

Our next question comes from the line of Kate Fitzsimons with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的凱特菲茨西蒙斯。

I wanted to switch gears to margins. You raised the full year gross margin outlook. Just as we're thinking about puts and takes on the gross margin into next year, how should we think about some of the drivers between mix, supply chain, promotions, and then, Michael, just any updated views on maybe the longer-term gross margin opportunity versus that 32.5% to 33% range you've spoken to previously, just given how well the business has held on to some of its margin gains?

我想將齒輪切換到利潤率。您提高了全年毛利率預期。就像我們正在考慮明年的毛利率一樣，我們應該如何考慮混合、供應鏈、促銷之間的一些驅動因素，然後，邁克爾，關於可能更長期的任何最新觀點毛利率機會與您之前談到的 32.5% 至 33% 的範圍相比，只是考慮到該業務在多大程度上保持了其部分利潤率收益？

I'll take the first part, and then I'm sure Mike will jump in on some later parts. But so far, we're pretty pleased with our gross margin performance and our ability to hold on to the higher margins we generated over the past couple of years. We attribute a lot of that to just being better planners and managers of the business. That being said, we do expect the margin will decline a little bit versus last year in Q4, which is accounted for in our guidance. That's based off of -- we think it's going to be a more promotional holiday. We're already seeing it being more promotional holiday, so we baked that in.

我先講第一部分，然後我相信 Mike 會加入後面的部分。但到目前為止，我們對我們的毛利率表現以及我們保持過去幾年產生的更高利潤率的能力感到非常滿意。我們將其中很大一部分歸因於成為更好的業務規劃者和管理者。話雖這麼說，我們確實預計第四季度的利潤率會比去年略有下降，這在我們的指導中有所考慮。這是基於——我們認為這將是一個更具促銷性的假期。我們已經看到這是一個更具促銷性的假期，所以我們將其融入其中。

But just to be clear, we're still going to hold on to the vast majority of those gains. And we think those gains are coming from a couple of different places. We already mentioned the planning and allocation disciplines that we put in place in terms of better management of how we flow goods and allocate goods. We don't have the inventory overhang that I think a lot of other people out there have. So that certainly is not going to be a pressure for us or a headwind for us.

但需要明確的是，我們仍將保留這些收益中的絕大部分。我們認為這些收益來自幾個不同的地方。我們已經提到了我們為了更好地管理我們如何流動和分配貨物而製定的計劃和分配紀律。我們沒有庫存過剩，我認為很多其他人都有。所以這肯定不會成為我們的壓力或逆風。

One of the things that's happened to us during the pandemic was the hard goods business, which has a lower margin profile had become a bigger percent of total. And as that mix starts to normalize more back to a 50-50 soft goods to hard goods, that's definitely a tailwind for us as well. So those are all probably the tailwinds. Certainly, the supply chain is getting better, but there's still some disruption in that. And I think that's something that could be a headwind for us. I think as business seems to be moving back to more kind of the cadence or trend prepandemic, I think we're going to see more promotions creeping in the marketplace. So those would certainly be a little bit of a headwind. But we feel really good about our ability to navigate through those and then we're going to hold on the vast majority of the margin gains we've picked up over the past couple of years.

大流行期間發生在我們身上的一件事是耐用品業務，該業務的利潤率較低，但佔總利潤的比例更大。隨著這種混合開始正常化，從 50-50 的軟商品到硬商品，這對我們來說也絕對是順風。所以這些都可能是順風。當然，供應鏈正在變得更好，但仍然存在一些中斷。我認為這對我們來說可能是一個不利因素。我認為，隨著企業似乎正在回歸更多的節奏或大流行前的趨勢，我認為我們將看到市場上出現更多的促銷活動。所以這些肯定會有點不利。但我們對自己解決這些問題的能力感到非常滿意，然後我們將保住過去幾年中獲得的絕大部分利潤率收益。

Okay. First, welcome back. Good to have you on the call again. I want to tell you that look, Steve answered that 1 pretty well. I don't have a lot to add. Merchandise margins have been the hero as we continue to harvest the fruit from the initiatives and the groundwork we laid many, many years ago and continue to do that.

好的。首先，歡迎回來。很高興你再次接聽電話。我想告訴你那個表情，史蒂夫回答得很好。我沒有太多要補充的。商品利潤率一直是英雄，因為我們繼續從我們多年前奠定的舉措和基礎中收穫成果，並繼續這樣做。

One thing that I would say, shrink has been a little higher than planned. There has been a lot of organized crime in retail. We're experiencing that along with everybody else. We're working with our law enforcement partners who are great partners in part because they really like the stuff that we sell and they love to shop in our stores. So we think that we have an opportunity to improve that going forward.

我要說的一件事是，收縮比計劃的要高一點。零售業有很多有組織的犯罪活動。我們和其他人一樣正在經歷這一點。我們正在與我們的執法合作夥伴合作，他們是很好的合作夥伴，部分原因是他們真的很喜歡我們銷售的東西，他們喜歡在我們的商店購物。因此，我們認為我們有機會改進這一點。

As far as the long-term algorithm, I'd stick with what you have and largely because we want to preserve flexibility if we need to become more promotional. We want to preserve that flexibility.

至於長期算法，我會堅持你所擁有的，主要是因為如果我們需要變得更具促銷性，我們希望保持靈活性。我們希望保留這種靈活性。

Two adds, Kate. One is, we want to continue our value proposition. And so we do not want to forfeit growth for margins. So we will work to maintain that value proposition that we've worked very hard to get and the customer views us within the market.

兩個補充，凱特。一是，我們希望繼續我們的價值主張。因此，我們不想為了利潤而放棄增長。因此，我們將努力維持我們努力獲得的價值主張以及客戶在市場上對我們的看法。

The other thing, I think, that is different when we talk about promotions, I think one, we talk about seeing more, but it is more rational and thoughtful for a couple of reasons. One, the people are in a better position and can afford to be more thoughtful about the promotions they had and had the ones back in that make the most sense to drive traffic.

另一件事，我認為，當我們談論促銷時，這是不同的，我認為一個，我們談論看到更多，但出於幾個原因，它更加理性和周到。第一，人們處於一個更好的位置，並且有能力對他們所進行的促銷活動進行更周到的考慮，並且讓那些重新開始的促銷活動對增加流量最有意義。

And two, the vendors -- what the vendors have done, some of the key vendors have done over the past several years. And it's not just in apparel, but it's in other places and how they've cut back on their distribution and our positioning as a favored retailer for them have helped to maintain some of the sensibility in the market and also support some of the margin improvements that we've seen in addition to the operational and process improvements that we put in place.

第二，供應商——供應商所做的，一些主要供應商在過去幾年裡所做的。不僅在服裝領域，在其他地方也是如此，他們如何減少分銷以及我們作為他們青睞的零售商的定位有助於維持市場的一些敏感性，也支持了一些利潤率的提高除了我們實施的運營和流程改進之外，我們還看到了這一點。

One more thing to add, just as a reminder, we are just embarking on a multiyear initiative to improve the efficiency and the effectiveness of our supply chain. And that work is really getting underway. And so I think from a market perspective, hopefully, the environment normalizes from a logistics and a supply chain perspective. But we have things to work on and our into that should provide a margin benefit in the out years. But I think for now, you've got a good number to work with that we've provided in the past, and I think that's a good 1 to run with.

還要補充一點，作為提醒，我們剛剛開始一項多年計劃，以提高我們供應鏈的效率和有效性。這項工作確實在進行中。因此，我認為從市場的角度來看，希望環境能夠從物流和供應鏈的角度正常化。但我們有事情要做，我們的工作應該會在未來幾年提供邊際收益。但我認為現在，你有一個很好的數字可以使用我們過去提供的，我認為這是一個很好的運行。

Great. I'll let others kick it up in the queue, but happy holidays.

偉大的。我會讓其他人排隊，但節日快樂。

Our next question comes from the line of Robby Ohmes with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Robby Ohmes。

Just a couple of quick follow-ups. Just on the guidance, how are you thinking about transaction expectations in the fourth quarter kind of similar to the third quarter? And is some of the confidence as you just -- with hunting, not being less of a drag in the third quarter helps the visibility in the fourth quarter. And the kind of follow-up question, which you've somewhat answered, but just the -- you guys see promotions potentially coming back on and transactions have been down. That usually is a hard environment to get gross margins up or flat versus all-time highs. What's the risk of promotions come back on and you're not able to maintain the sort of gross margin expectations you guys have put out there?

只是幾個快速跟進。就指導而言，您如何看待第四季度與第三季度類似的交易預期？並且像你一樣有一些信心 - 通過狩獵，第三節的拖累不小有助於第四節的可見性。還有那種後續問題，你已經回答了一些，但只是 - 你們看到促銷可能會重新開始並且交易已經下降。這通常是一個很難使毛利率上升或持平於歷史高位的環境。促銷活動的風險是什麼？你們無法維持你們在那裡提出的那種毛利率預期？

Yes, I'll start and then let Steve pick up on the second part. Our transactions have been off. And the part of it is what's happening in the consumer environment. But part of it is also -- and it's actually a significant part of actions that we took last year, as we said there were limitations on ammunition. And while we sold a lot, we had limits on how many people could buy and we had a lot of customers coming in multiple times in a day and literally lining up coming in every day. And we aren't seeing that now because we've taken those limits off, and that makes the transaction number a little bit more difficult to read year-to-year because we had created some artificial high transaction levels because of those limits that we've put on, and we no longer have those.

是的，我會開始，然後讓史蒂夫接手第二部分。我們的交易已經停止。其中一部分是消費者環境中正在發生的事情。但其中一部分也是——這實際上是我們去年採取的行動的重要組成部分，正如我們所說的彈藥有限。雖然我們賣了很多，但我們對可以購買的人數有限制，而且我們有很多顧客一天多次光顧，而且每天都在排隊。我們現在看不到這一點，因為我們已經取消了這些限制，這使得交易數量逐年變得更難閱讀，因為我們由於這些限製而創造了一些人為的高交易水平穿上了，我們不再有那些了。

Yes. And to the point on promotions, I think Ken was alluding to it. When you go back and you look at some of the promotions that we used to run pre the current management team being here. I mean they were, in some cases, irrational promotions. And I think you've heard us talk about those over time where we'd be selling something like a big bulky item like a trampoline close to cost and then on top of that, providing free shipping. And they just -- they didn't make a lot of sense.

是的。至於升職這一點，我認為 Ken 暗示了這一點。當你回去時，你會看到我們在當前管理團隊來到這里之前進行的一些促銷活動。我的意思是，在某些情況下，他們是非理性的促銷活動。而且我想你已經聽過我們談論過那些隨著時間的推移我們會以接近成本的價格銷售像蹦床這樣的大件物品，然後最重要的是提供免費送貨。他們只是 - 他們沒有多大意義。

And so I think 1 of the things that's happened over the past couple of years is not only for us but for the whole industry, is the promotional landscape has kind of been benign, it's allowed us to kind of clear the decks and it's really allowed us to be thoughtful about where and when and how we're layering in those promotions. You also have a lot of the vendors out there having much better control over their maps. So I think that kind of keeps them in check. So I think it's the combination of us having rational promotions that we're not up against that we don't feel compelled to anniversary that drove top line but maybe not bottom line, coupled with a better controlled distribution out there. I think those 2 things allow us to know that we're going to see more promotions certainly this year than we did last year, but that we're still going to be able to hold on a majority of the margin gains.

所以我認為過去幾年發生的事情之一不僅對我們而且對整個行業來說，促銷環境有點良性，它讓我們有點清理甲板而且它真的被允許我們要考慮我們在這些促銷活動中的地點、時間和方式。你也有很多供應商可以更好地控制他們的地圖。所以我認為這種方式可以讓他們受到控制。所以我認為這是我們有合理的促銷活動的結合，我們沒有反對，我們不覺得有必要參加週年紀念日，這推動了頂線但也許不是底線，再加上更好地控制分配。我認為這兩件事讓我們知道今年我們肯定會看到比去年更多的促銷活動，但我們仍然能夠保持大部分利潤率增長。

And just a quick follow-up. In the average transaction size, are you seeing more items per basket? Or are you seeing bigger ticket purchases. And is there any -- have the vendors raised price on somewhat like items? So you're seeing inflation in certain categories like fleece or things like that, that are supporting same-store sales?

并快速跟進。在平均交易規模中，您是否看到每個籃子的商品更多？或者你看到更大的門票購買量。供應商是否提高了類似物品的價格？所以你看到某些類別的通貨膨脹，如羊毛或類似的東西，支持同店銷售？

Robby, I would just say that we generally don't give the basket detail. I'll give you a little bit of color. Last year, if you remember, we were up against a tremendous surge in demand for ammunition and that drove a lot of units. And so there's a little bit of noise kind of internally, but that will provide you a little color about our basket.

羅比，我只想說我們通常不會給出籃筐的細節。我給你一點顏色。去年，如果你還記得的話，我們面臨著彈藥需求的激增，這推動了很多單位的發展。所以內部有一點噪音，但這會讓你對我們的籃子有一點了解。

And we are seeing some AUR increases just based off of cost increases that we've seen out there.

我們看到一些 AUR 的增加只是基於我們在那裡看到的成本增加。

Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Chukumba with Loop Capital Markets. .

我們的下一個問題來自 Loop Capital Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。 .

I'm glad to hear my equipment is working. I try to get into an earlier call, they didn't take my question. So I thought maybe there was a problem on my end. Anyway, either here nor there. Yes. So I had a question actually about your new store openings. I know it's fairly early, but these other first new stores you've opened in quite some time. And so just wanted to see if you -- any early reads on how those stores are performing relative to your expectations?

我很高興聽到我的設備正在工作。我試著撥通較早的電話，他們沒有接聽我的問題。所以我想我這邊可能有問題。不管怎樣，不是這裡就是那裡。是的。所以我實際上有一個關於你的新店開業的問題。我知道現在還早，但是你們開的這些其他第一批新店已經有一段時間了。所以只是想看看你是否 - 任何關於這些商店相對於你的期望表現如何的早期閱讀？

First off, Anthony, if you couldn't ask a question on the last call, we'll let you ask us 2. So you can ask us 2. We're happy. Yes, new stores. I would say this year was really about capability building in test and learn. And so we have all 9 stores opened this year. We tried different formats, different markets. We did urban stores, we did takeover spaces. We did traditional build-to-suits and we tested a lot and we learned a lot and we build the capability, all 9 stores are open. We're happy with the performance as a whole overall. There's always things when you're testing and learning that you want to do different and do better, and we'll apply those learnings next year. So we opened 4 new stores in Q3, 2 more in Q4. We haven't announced our targets next year, but it will be more than we did this year.

首先，安東尼，如果你不能在上次通話中提出問題，我們會讓你問我們 2。所以你可以問我們 2。我們很高興。是的，新店。我想說今年真的是關於測試和學習中的能力建設。因此，我們今年開設了所有 9 家商店。我們嘗試了不同的形式，不同的市場。我們做了城市商店，我們做了接管空間。我們進行了傳統的定制，我們進行了很多測試，我們學到了很多東西，我們建立了能力，所有 9 家商店都開張了。我們對整體表現感到滿意。當你在測試和學習時，總有一些事情你想做不同的事情，做得更好，我們明年會應用這些知識。所以我們在第三季度開了 4 家新店，第四季度又開了 2 家。我們還沒有宣布明年的目標，但會比今年多。

One thing, Anthony, I think that's important, as Michael said, we are pleased with the overall performance, and we have some really good winners. We have a store that we would like for it to be better, and it's a good learning store. But 1 of the things that's actually really pleasing for us is some of the new markets that we've entered both that were adjacent or completely new markets. We've seen some very good results there. So we're getting some -- we're pleased with our ability to enter places where people might not be as familiar with us to the last store on the last 2 we just opened in Barboursville, West Virginia, not only a new market. It's a new state. And I got to tell you, a line around the block in the snow. I'm sure if you followed us a little bit on social media, you've seen some of that. That is exciting and shows the potential of not only being able to ability to grow in that market. But in that region, where there's a lot of white space for Mid-Atlantic.

一件事，安東尼，我認為這很重要，正如邁克爾所說，我們對整體表現感到滿意，我們有一些非常好的贏家。我們有一家商店，我們希望它變得更好，這是一家很好的學習商店。但是，真正令我們高興的事情之一是我們進入的一些新市場，這些市場既有相鄰的市場，也有全新的市場。我們在那裡看到了一些非常好的結果。所以我們得到了一些 - 我們很高興我們能夠進入人們可能不熟悉我們的地方，直到我們剛剛在西弗吉尼亞州巴伯斯維爾開設的最後一家商店，而不僅僅是一個新市場。這是一個新的狀態。我得告訴你，在雪地裡繞著街區排成一行。我敢肯定，如果您在社交媒體上稍微關注過我們，您就會看到其中的一些內容。這是令人興奮的，並且顯示了不僅能夠在該市場中成長的潛力。但在那個地區，中大西洋有很多空白。

Got it. Very helpful. And then as a second question to make up for the fact that I wasn't able to ask any question on the earlier call. So yes, just a real quick one. You mentioned supply chain and some of the improvements you're going to be making there. Michael, if I recall correctly, when we had last spoken, you said that you thought that the warehouse management system would be installed in 2023. I just wanted to confirm if that was still the case or what your thought was there?

知道了。非常有幫助。然後作為第二個問題來彌補我在之前的電話中無法提出任何問題的事實。所以是的，只是一個真正的快速。您提到了供應鏈以及您將在那裡進行的一些改進。邁克爾，如果我沒記錯的話，我們上次談話時，你說你認為倉庫管理系統會在 2023 年安裝。我只是想確認一下是否仍然如此，或者你當時的想法是什麼？

That's going to be a multiyear, but yes, I think towards the end of 2023, we'll start to bring that online.

這將是多年的時間，但是是的，我認為到 2023 年底，我們將開始將其上線。

Okay. Very helpful.

好的。非常有幫助。

We will phase that in across all of our DCs. So we're not doing anything all at once. So -- but we'll start at the end of '23 and then roll it out to other distribution facilities.

我們將在所有 DC 中分階段實施。所以我們不會同時做任何事情。所以——但我們將從 23 年底開始，然後將其推廣到其他分銷設施。

Got it. Keep up the good work, guys.

知道了。保持良好的工作，伙計們。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brian Nagel 與 Oppenheimer 的對話。

This is Andrew Chazen off on for Brian Nagel. I just have 2 quick questions. One is shorter term in nature and the other 1 is longer in the near term. Can you -- can you call out any specific trends in the Black Friday, Cyber Monday specifically, how you describe the brick-and-mortar traffic trends versus pre-COVID? And then longer term in nature, as the pandemic dynamics decided -- has your thinking towards a longer-term growth algorithm of ASO changed at all?

這是 Andrew Chazen 替補 Brian Nagel。我只有 2 個簡單的問題。一個是短期的，另一個是短期的。你能不能——你能說出黑色星期五的任何具體趨勢，特別是網絡星期一，你如何描述實體交通趨勢與 COVID 之前的趨勢？然後從長期來看，隨著大流行動態的決定——你對 ASO 長期增長算法的想法是否完全改變了？

I'll take the first part. I'll give the second part to Michael. One of the things we've seen this Christmas, candidly, that started in early November and blend in the Black Friday week is kind of a return to pre-pandemic shopping patterns. So what is -- what we mean by that is, if you go back pre-pandemic, customers really waited until Black Friday week to kick off. The last 2 years, we've seen pull forward of demand early in the month, particularly in some of the bigger ticket categories where there was scarcity of supply.

我先講第一部分。我會將第二部分交給邁克爾。坦率地說，今年聖誕節我們看到的一件事是從 11 月初開始並與黑色星期五週融為一體，這有點像回到大流行前的購物模式。那麼，我們的意思是，如果你回到大流行前，客戶真的要等到黑色星期五那一周才開始。在過去的 2 年裡，我們看到月初的需求有所增加，特別是在一些供應短缺的較大機票類別中。

And so we've seen that kind of revert back this year. So softer demand for big ticket early in the month. Then when we got into Black Friday week, another thing we've seen is people over the past couple of years, we're really trying to avoid large crowds on Black Friday itself, they tended to shop earlier in the week. And then we saw a little bit softer trend over the weekend, and that's reverted back to where the weekend was much more important this year.

因此，我們今年看到了這種回歸。因此，本月初對大票的需求疲軟。然後當我們進入黑色星期五週時，我們看到的另一件事是過去幾年的人們，我們真的在努力避免黑色星期五本身的大量人群，他們傾向於在本週早些時候購物。然後我們在周末看到了一點點疲軟的趨勢，這又回到了今年周末更為重要的地方。

And as Ken mentioned already, it was the largest day in our company's history from a sales perspective. So I would say the biggest thing we've seen is kind of reversion early on back to more of the soft goods business. We've seen it shift back to they're shopping on the big days more pre-pandemic than where they have been. But we also believe that, that's going to drive the big ticket sales closer in, which we've seen pre-pandemic as well.

正如 Ken 已經提到的，從銷售角度來看，這是我們公司歷史上最大的一天。所以我想說我們看到的最大的事情是早期回歸更多的軟商品業務。我們已經看到，這種情況又回到了他們在大流行前的大日子裡購物的情況，而不是以前的情況。但我們也相信，這將推動大票銷售的臨近，我們在大流行前也看到過這種情況。

One of the other things we did see though was the customer was willing for the right item to buy the big ticket. So we -- this is not -- it was not -- Black Friday was not just driven by apparel. We did very well in that. But we also saw a number of our big ticket items, some of the categories that Michael called out, like outdoor cooking, sports and the like also performed very well during the event.

不過，我們確實看到的另一件事是，客戶願意為合適的商品購買大件商品。所以我們 - 這不是 - 它不是 - 黑色星期五不僅僅是由服裝驅動的。我們在這方面做得很好。但我們也看到了我們的一些大件商品，邁克爾提到的一些類別，如戶外烹飪、運動等，在活動期間也表現非常好。

Where we had great value.

我們有很大的價值。

Where we had good value.

我們有很好的價值。

With respect to the long-term growth algorithm, no changes there. I mean we're still planning low single-digit comp growth overall throughout the long-range plan. Total sales growth of high single digits, EBITDA growth at high single digits and net income growth in the high teens. We will do that for the addition of 80 to 100 new stores investing in our dot-com business, which is out on a real growth run here, continuing to grow at double digits quarter-over-quarter and improving our existing operations.

關於長期增長算法，那裡沒有變化。我的意思是，在整個長期計劃中，我們仍在計劃總體上實現低個位數的收入增長。總銷售額以高個位數增長，EBITDA 以高個位數增長，淨收入以高個位數增長。我們將這樣做是為了增加 80 到 100 家投資於我們的網絡業務的新商店，該業務在這裡實現了真正的增長，繼續以兩位數的季度環比增長並改善我們現有的運營。

Our last question comes from the line of John Zodolis with Quo Vadis.

我們的最後一個問題來自 John Zodolis 和 Quo Vadis 的台詞。

I have 2 questions, but I'll just stick with 1 here since it's the last one. You mentioned that you had...

我有 2 個問題，但我會在這裡堅持使用 1，因為它是最後一個。你提到你有...

You can ask 2.

你可以問2。

Okay, thank you. All right. So here's my 2 questions then. First question is on average unit sales. So for the full year, we're looking at just under, I believe, $25 million per average store, and that's down about from -- a little over $26 million in the previous year. And so the first question is for the new units that are coming on, what do you expect those to annualize in their first year?

好的謝謝你。好的。所以這是我的 2 個問題。第一個問題是平均單位銷售額。因此，對於全年，我相信每家平均商店的收入略低於 2500 萬美元，這比前一年略高於 2600 萬美元有所下降。因此，第一個問題是對於即將推出的新單位，您預計這些單位在第一年的年化率是多少？

John, I'm sorry, I missed the last piece of your question.

約翰，對不起，我錯過了你問題的最後一部分。

So the newer stores that you're opening up, we've got 9 open year-to-date, as you've mentioned, they haven't been open a full year yet. But as we think about the sales contribution from the new stores, what should they be annualizing at in their first year?

所以你要開的新店，我們今年迄今有 9 家開店，正如你提到的，他們還沒有開滿一年。但是當我們考慮新店的銷售貢獻時，它們在第一年的年化率應該是多少？

We underwrite them on average of around $16 million at year 1 sales end of year 1 sales. We do expect them to be EBITDA accretive after year 1 Again, some of these just opened, but the first 4 collectively as a whole were more accretive to earnings even just a few months into the year opening.

我們在第 1 年銷售額和第 1 年銷售額末平均承銷約 1600 萬美元。我們確實希望它們在第 1 年之後能夠增加 EBITDA 同樣，其中一些剛剛開業，但前 4 家作為一個整體整體上對收益的貢獻更大，即使是在年初的幾個月內。

Then obviously, they ramp up on the day rate basis.

然後很明顯，它們是在日費率的基礎上增加的。

Yes, significantly higher than a typical store.

是的，明顯高於一般商店。

Okay. We will monitor that. And then the second question relates to something you talked about with pandemic winter categories. And you mentioned that a number of these, even though they might be down a little bit, are still dramatically higher than pre-COVID levels and in particular, for example, ammunition still up triple digits. So I think a more cautious view might suggest, hey, these are still performing okay, but what we really just haven't seen the reversion or in the demand for these categories yet. And as we go into next year and potentially less favorable consumer environment, that's where you're going to see this kind of continued downward pressure. And so obviously, we can't predict what's going to happen. But my question is, how are you positioned -- how are you able to manage inventory if that were to occur?

好的。我們將對此進行監控。然後第二個問題與你談到的大流行冬季類別有關。你提到其中一些，即使它們可能會下降一點，但仍然大大高於 COVID 之前的水平，特別是，例如，彈藥仍然增長了三位數。所以我認為更謹慎的觀點可能表明，嘿，這些仍然表現不錯，但我們真的只是還沒有看到這些類別的回歸或需求。隨著我們進入明年和可能不太有利的消費環境，你將看到這種持續的下行壓力。很明顯，我們無法預測會發生什麼。但我的問題是，你是如何定位的——如果發生這種情況，你將如何管理庫存？

Well, I think we've demonstrated that over the past several years, to be honest with you. We certainly build contingency plans into our buying process. We have trigger dates that we activate depending upon where we see demand happening. We have great partnerships with our vendor partners. And I think on both sides of it as inventory was scarce and we had to chase it. I think we definitely outperformed a lot of our competitors in terms of getting supply of goods, which I think was reflected in sales trend that we drove in '20 and '21.

好吧，老實說，我認為我們在過去幾年中已經證明了這一點。我們當然會在購買過程中製定應急計劃。我們有根據我們看到需求發生的地點激活的觸發日期。我們與供應商合作夥伴建立了良好的合作夥伴關係。而且我認為它的兩面都因為庫存稀缺而我們不得不追逐它。我認為我們在獲得商品供應方面肯定勝過很多競爭對手，我認為這反映在我們在 20 世紀和 21 年推動的銷售趨勢中。

And I think this year, as the supply chain has gotten a lot better, and actually, a lot of them just caught up, some people have been caught the other way with inventory ballooning for them. And I don't think we've seen that happen. So I think we've got a very nimble team, who's got good partnerships and relationships, a strong planning and allocation basis, strong open-to-buy management. And that's really allowed us to manage on both sides of it. So I don't see that changing if we see a slowdown next year.

而且我認為今年，隨著供應鏈變得更好，實際上，他們中的很多人剛剛趕上來，有些人已經以另一種方式被抓住了，他們的庫存膨脹了。我認為我們還沒有看到這種情況發生。所以我認為我們有一個非常靈活的團隊，擁有良好的合作夥伴關係和關係，強大的規劃和分配基礎，強大的開放購買管理。這真的讓我們能夠在兩方面進行管理。因此，如果我們明年看到經濟放緩，我認為這種情況不會改變。

But what I would say is 1 of the things that gives us confidence, and I think Michael hit on this, is these search categories, we track them. And you mentioned several of them, we talked about animal being 1 or fitness being another or cooking or things like that. they're all stabilizing at these higher levels. In a lot of cases, higher than the 30% trend that the company performed at. And we're seeing the volumes stabilize at those levels. So that's another thing we're looking at, not just the trend versus last year, but the average weekly volume, the average monthly volume. And so that's giving us confidence that this is kind of the new baseline that we're building off of because they've been maintaining at those consistent levels for multiple quarters in a row.

但我要說的是讓我們充滿信心的事情之一，我認為邁克爾抓住了這一點，就是這些搜索類別，我們跟踪它們。你提到了其中的幾個，我們談到了動物是 1 或健身是另一種或烹飪或類似的事情。他們都穩定在這些更高的水平上。在很多情況下，高於公司表現的 30% 趨勢。我們看到交易量穩定在這些水平。所以這是我們正在關注的另一件事，不僅僅是與去年相比的趨勢，還有平均每週交易量，平均每月交易量。因此，這讓我們相信這是我們正在建立的新基線，因為他們連續多個季度保持在這些一致的水平。

Two other things that I think are very important about this category and the inventory. First, as Steve mentioned, I think we have absolutely demonstrated we can manage inventory as well, if not better than most anybody in the space. But the categories where if you take a bearish view and you predict a demand drop off, the inventory doesn't go bad. It's not seasonal in nature. It doesn't become toxic like seasonal apparel what inventory does.

我認為關於此類別和庫存的另外兩件事非常重要。首先，正如史蒂夫提到的，我認為我們已經完全證明了我們也可以管理庫存，如果不是比該領域的大多數人更好的話。但是，如果您持悲觀觀點並預測需求下降，那麼庫存不會變壞。它本質上不是季節性的。它不像季節性服裝那樣像庫存那樣變得有毒。

Secondly, in these categories, while if you believe they're going to be demand challenged, they shouldn't be share challenged because a lot of folks in this space have walked away for it and they don't support it like they used to. And so we should continue to take share even if the category becomes demand challenge. And again, the inventory will remain healthy because it doesn't -- it's not subject to fashion or seasonality or those types of things.

其次，在這些類別中，如果您認為他們會受到需求挑戰，那麼他們不應該受到份額挑戰，因為這個領域的很多人已經為此走開了，他們不再像以前那樣支持它.因此，即使該類別成為需求挑戰，我們也應該繼續佔據份額。再一次，庫存將保持健康，因為它不受時尚或季節性或這些類型的影響。

Yes. My line is they're not bananas. But 1 of the key things here, John -- or 2 key things. One is what Steve mentioned that these -- the team has demonstrated the ability in multiple scenarios to manage the inventory, not put us in a position. We haven't announced as other retailers have that we've got an inventory problem, and we're having to take excess markdowns. We are managing carefully where we are, both on the up and downside.

是的。我的觀點是它們不是香蕉。但是這裡有 1 件關鍵事情，約翰 - 或者 2 件關鍵事情。一個是史蒂夫提到的——團隊已經展示了在多種情況下管理庫存的能力，而不是讓我們處於困境。我們沒有像其他零售商那樣宣布我們遇到了庫存問題，我們不得不採取過度降價措施。我們正在謹慎地管理我們所處的位置，無論是上行還是下行。

And the second thing is we've also demonstrated that we are able to maintain at those higher levels. And 1 of the comments that Michael just made was about -- even some of those categories that are declining, our share continues to improve in many of those categories. So we're able to -- while in a declining market or in a declining situation, pick up share and hold at that higher level, either because competition has pulled back or the value and assortment that we've offered. Our team has done an excellent job over the past couple of years, putting us in a good place with our good, better, best strong brand assortments in multiple categories. And so that is 1 of the things that gives us confidence as we go forward that yes, we're in tough times, yes, the first part of next year is going to be a challenging time for not just retail, but the entire economy. But we will be positioned for growth both with our existing stores and online, but also as we enter new markets.

第二件事是我們也證明了我們能夠保持在那些更高的水平。 Michael 剛剛發表的評論中有 1 條是關於——即使是一些正在下降的類別，我們在其中許多類別中的份額仍在繼續提高。因此，我們能夠——在市場下滑或情況下滑的情況下，獲得份額並保持在更高水平，這要么是因為競爭已經退縮，要么是因為我們提供的價值和種類。在過去的幾年裡，我們的團隊做得非常出色，讓我們在多個類別中擁有更好、更好、最強大的品牌組合。因此，這是讓我們有信心前進的事情之一，是的，我們正處於艱難時期，是的，明年上半年不僅對零售業，而且對整個經濟都將是充滿挑戰的時期.但我們將在現有商店和在線商店以及進入新市場時為增長做好準備。

So we feel very confident about our position going forward, and we're excited about the future for Academy.

因此，我們對我們未來的立場非常有信心，我們對學院的未來感到興奮。

And happy holidays to everyone and your families.

祝大家和您的家人節日快樂。

Okay. That was our last question. We're ending right on time, and I appreciate everybody's participation on the call. Thank you very much. Appreciate everybody's support of the company. I want to thank all of our team members, but also our investors and the people who are interested in Academy. We feel, as I said, we've got a great future. I want to wish everybody the happiest of holidays and a terrific, terrific new year. So happy holidays, and thank you. Goodbye.

好的。這是我們的最後一個問題。我們準時結束，感謝大家參與電話會議。非常感謝。感謝大家對公司的支持。我要感謝我們所有的團隊成員，還有我們的投資者和對學院感興趣的人。正如我所說，我們覺得我們有一個美好的未來。我想祝大家節日快樂，新年快樂。節日快樂，謝謝。再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。