Ashland Inc. (ASH) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and Welcome to the Ashland Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Ashland Inc. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Seth Mrozek, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的講者——投資人關係總監 Seth Mrozek。請開始。

Thank you, Abigail. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ashland's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Seth Mrozek, Director, Ashland Investor Relations.

謝謝你，Abigail。各位好，歡迎參加 Ashland 2023 會計年度第四季財報電話會議與網路直播。我是 Seth Mrozek，Ashland 投資人關係總監。

Joining me on the call today are Guillermo Novo, Ashland's Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Kevin Willis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一同參與電話會議的有：Ashland 董事長兼執行長 Guillermo Novo；以及資深副總裁兼財務長 Kevin Willis。

We released results for the quarter ended September 30, 2023, at approximately 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time yesterday, November 8. The news release issued last night was furnished to the SEC in a Form 8-K.

我們已於昨日 11 月 8 日美東時間約下午 5:00 公布截至 2023 年 9 月 30 日止季度的業績。昨晚發布的新聞稿已以 8-K 表格提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）。

During today's call, we will reference slides that are currently being webcast on our website, ashland.com, under the Investor Relations section. We encourage you to follow along with the webcast during the call.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將引用目前於本公司網站 ashland.com「投資人關係」專區同步網路直播的簡報投影片。我們鼓勵您在會議進行期間一同觀看網路直播。

Please turn to Slide 2. As a reminder, during today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements on several matters, including our financial outlook for fiscal year 2024. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause future results or events to differ materially from today's projections. We believe any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, but cannot assure that such expectations will be achieved. Please refer to Slide 2 of the presentation for an explanation of those risks and uncertainties and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements. You can also review our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A for a comprehensive discussion of the risk factors impacting our business.

請翻到投影片第 2 頁。提醒各位，在今天的電話會議中，我們將就多項事項作出前瞻性陳述，包括我們對 2024 會計年度的財務展望。這些前瞻性陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致未來結果或事件與今日預測有重大差異。我們相信此類陳述係基於合理假設，但無法保證可達成相關預期。請參閱簡報投影片第 2 頁，了解上述風險與不確定性之說明，以及前瞻性陳述適用之限制。您亦可查閱我們最新的 Form 10-K 之 Item 1A，以獲得影響本公司業務之風險因素的完整討論。

Please also note that we will be referring to certain actual and projected financial metrics on Ashland on an adjusted basis, which are non-GAAP financial measures. We will refer to these measures as adjusted and present them to supplement your understanding and assessment of the financial performance of our ongoing business.

另請注意，我們將以調整後（adjusted）基礎引用 Ashland 若干實際及預估財務指標，該等指標屬非 GAAP 財務衡量。為協助您理解並評估我們持續經營業務的財務表現，我們將以「調整後」稱之並作為補充資訊呈現。

Non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for or superior to financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. The most directly comparable GAAP measures as well as reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures to those GAAP measures are available on our website and in the appendix of today's slide presentation.

非 GAAP 指標不應被視為 GAAP 計算之財務指標的替代或更優指標。與之最直接可比的 GAAP 指標，以及非 GAAP 指標與該等 GAAP 指標之調節表，已公布於我們的網站，並收錄於今日投影片簡報的附錄中。

Please turn to Slide 3. Guillermo will begin the call this morning with an overview of Ashland's performance and results in the fourth quarter and fiscal year. Next, Kevin will provide a more detailed review of financial results for the quarter. Guillermo will then provide additional commentary related to Ashland's financial outlook for fiscal year '24. We will then open your line for questions.

請翻到投影片第 3 頁。Guillermo 將於今天上午先就 Ashland 在第四季及全會計年度的表現與結果作概述。接著 Kevin 將更詳細檢視本季財務結果。之後 Guillermo 將就 Ashland 2024 會計年度的財務展望提供進一步評論。最後我們將開放提問。

Now please turn to Slide 5, and I will turn the call over to Guillermo for his opening comments. Guillermo?

現在請翻到投影片第 5 頁，我將把電話會議交給 Guillermo 發表開場評論。Guillermo？

Thank you, Seth, and hello to everyone. Thank you for your interest in Ashland and for your participation today. The results in the September quarter were consistent with our preannouncement that we issued last week.

謝謝你，Seth，各位好。感謝各位對 Ashland 的關注並參與今天的會議。9 月季度的結果與我們上週發布的預先公告一致。

Customer demand was generally in line with our expectations. Although destocking has stabilized relative to prior year, we continue to feel the impact across several markets.

客戶需求整體上符合我們的預期。雖然相較去年，去庫存已趨於穩定，但我們仍在多個市場感受到其影響。

Pricing remained favorable compared to prior year across all our core segments in the integrated business. However, Intermediates did experience price declines in both the merchant business as well as the internal BDO transfer price.

在整合業務的所有核心事業部門中，定價相較去年仍維持有利。然而，中間體（Intermediates）在對外商業業務以及內部 BDO 轉撥價格方面，確實都出現價格下滑。

By far, the biggest factor impacting Q4 earnings was a proactive inventory control actions we took. These actions are above our regional expectations.

影響第四季獲利的最大因素，遠遠是我們所採取的主動庫存控管措施。這些措施的力度高於我們各區域的原先預期。

Given the uncertainty in the outlook and a different scenario we considered, we took the approach to assume a more conservative scenario for our planning actions. The resulting lower inventory position and improved cash flow will position us better for better operating of resilience across multiple scenarios over the next couple of quarters.

鑑於展望仍具不確定性，以及我們所考量的不同情境，我們在規劃行動上採取較保守的假設。由此帶來的較低庫存水位與改善的現金流，將使我們在未來幾個季度面對多種情境時，能以更具韌性的方式營運。

These inventory control actions resulted in lower production volumes, and nearly $60 million in cost impact. The resulting benefit was a reduction in inventory of about $86 million compared to June 30, and a generation of $104 million in ongoing free cash flow during the quarter.

這些庫存控管措施導致產量下降，並帶來近 6,000 萬美元的成本影響。相對的效益是：與 6 月 30 日相比，庫存減少約 8,600 萬美元，且本季持續經營自由現金流（ongoing free cash flow）產生 1.04 億美元。

While the $74 million of adjusted EBITDA was below our original expectations, these actions were necessary to meet our commitment to maintain operating balance sheet and cash discipline during times of uncertain customer demand.

雖然 7,400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA 低於我們原先預期，但在客戶需求不確定的時期，為履行我們維持營運資產負債表平衡與現金紀律的承諾，這些行動是必要的。

Please turn to Slide 6.

請翻到投影片第 6 頁。

Fiscal 2023 was a challenging year. As I indicated, reduced volumes resulting from the unprecedented and extended customer destocking was the largest single factor impacting top line results during fiscal '23. Volumes were down 18% during the year due to these impacts. The lower volumes impacted both sales and gross profit as well as plant cost and unit costs.

2023 會計年度是充滿挑戰的一年。如我所述，由於前所未見且延續時間很長的客戶去庫存，導致銷量下降，這是影響 2023 會計年度營收表現的最大單一因素。受此影響，全年銷量下降 18%。較低的銷量影響了銷售額與毛利，也影響了工廠成本與單位成本。

And while pricing was favorable for the year, it was not enough to fully offset the significant reduction in volume. But net result for the year was sales, down roughly $200 million or about 8%, and adjusted EBITDA was down about $131 million or roughly 22%.

雖然全年定價仍屬有利，但不足以完全抵銷銷量大幅下滑的影響。因此全年淨結果為：銷售額約減少 2 億美元或約 8%，調整後 EBITDA 約減少 1.31 億美元或約 22%。

The lower demand and inventory destocking was clearly very challenging and disruptive for our manufacturing operations. Although the timing of some of the inventory control actions varied across the year, in hindsight, if we average the timing of these actions across the year, the net result would not have changed.

需求走弱與去庫存對我們的製造營運顯然非常具挑戰性且造成干擾。雖然部分庫存控管措施在年度內的執行時點有所不同，但事後回顧，若將這些行動的時點在全年平均化，最終結果並不會改變。

The bottom line of production and manufacturing unit costs for the year increased significantly due to the lower production volumes and resulting lower cost absorption. Disciplined SARD variable expense management helped, but the broader underlying costs were in line with our original plans. The only meaningful cost reduction resulted from the reduced incentive compensation based on the lower performance.

全年生產與製造單位成本的底線因產量下降及成本吸收不足而顯著上升。嚴謹的 SARD 變動費用管理有所助益，但更廣泛的基礎成本仍符合我們原先規劃。唯一較具意義的成本下降，來自於因績效較低而減少的獎酬性薪酬。

Let me close my fiscal 2023 comments with some reflections. On the positive side, it's good to see that consumer demand remains resilient for the core markets we serve as our customers destocking actions and our demand sit align with their underlying production needs to meet demand. We are seeing this dynamic starting to flow through with many customers. Unfortunately, it's also clear that destocking dynamics will continue to persist for longer across some of the supply chains of the industries we serve.

在結束我對 2023 會計年度的評論前，分享幾點觀察。正面來看，我們服務的核心市場之消費需求仍具韌性；隨著客戶去庫存行動以及我們的需求狀況與其為滿足需求所需的基礎產量逐步對齊，我們已看到許多客戶開始出現這種動態的傳導。不過，不幸的是，也很明顯在我們所服務產業的部分供應鏈中，去庫存的動態仍將持續更長一段時間。

If we look at the first half of the year, the expectation was that destocking would be shorter lived and demand would normalize sooner. Unfortunately, things did not play out that way. The inventory build across many of the many supply chains in fiscal year '21 and '22 was much greater than anyone realized, and it's taking much longer than expected to work down.

若回顧上半年，當時預期去庫存將較短暫、需求也會更快正常化。但事情並未如此發展。2021 與 2022 會計年度期間，許多供應鏈的庫存累積程度遠超出任何人的想像，去化所需時間也比預期更長。

There's still significant uncertainty as to when these dynamics will end. Until the inventory control actions taken by customers have subsided, it will remain difficult for us to gauge the true end market demand.

目前對於這些動態何時結束仍存在高度不確定性。在客戶所採取的庫存控管行動尚未消退之前，我們仍難以判斷真正的終端市場需求。

Waiting for improvements is not a reliable option. Given the continued uncertainty, it is vital that we move proactively to take actions to build resilience, reduce volatility and maximize performance across various scenarios.

被動等待改善並非可靠選項。鑑於不確定性持續存在，我們必須主動採取行動以建立韌性、降低波動，並在各種情境下將績效最大化。

We also recognize that while near-term uncertainties of the current environment present challenges, they do not change our exciting long-term opportunity for Ashland. We need to act on both dimensions to improve near-term performance and invest on our long-term profitable growth opportunity. I will discuss these in more details later in the call.

我們也認知到，雖然當前環境的短期不確定性帶來挑戰，但並不改變 Ashland 令人振奮的長期機會。我們需要在兩個面向同時採取行動：改善短期表現，並投資於我們長期的獲利成長機會。我稍後將在電話會議中更詳細說明。

Let me now turn the call over to Kevin to review our Q4 and fiscal year results in more detail. Kevin?

接下來我把電話會議交給 Kevin，更詳細檢視我們第四季與全年度的結果。Kevin？

Thank you, Guillermo, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 8. Before I review the detailed results for the quarter, I'd like to provide a bit more color on the customer destocking dynamics we experienced during fiscal '23.

謝謝你，Guillermo，各位早安。請翻到投影片第 8 頁。在我檢視本季詳細結果之前，我想就我們在 2023 會計年度所經歷的客戶去庫存動態補充一些背景說明。

As you can see in the graph to the left, Q1 and Q2 sales were actually tracking favorably compared to the prior year. While some distributors and customers in China and Europe have begun to reduce their order activity, carryover pricing was more than enough to offset these actions.

如左側圖表所示，第一季與第二季的銷售其實相較去年呈現有利走勢。儘管中國與歐洲的部分經銷商與客戶已開始降低下單活動，但延續性的定價效應足以抵銷這些行動。

However, during our fiscal Q3, the persistent customer destocking had expanded to more end markets and customers. These trends accelerated throughout the back half of the fiscal year. As Guillermo has stated, while we have seen some indications that demand has stabilized, we expect destocking to be a factor for at least the next 2 quarters.

然而，在我們的第三會計季度，持續的客戶去庫存已擴大至更多終端市場與客戶。這些趨勢在會計年度後半段加速。如 Guillermo 所述，雖然我們已看到需求趨於穩定的一些跡象，但我們預期去庫存至少在未來 2 個季度仍將是一項因素。

Hence, the more aggressive actions we took to reduce inventory during the September quarter.

因此，我們在 9 月季度採取了更積極的行動以降低庫存。

Please turn to Slide 9. Total Ashland sales in the quarter were $518 million, down 18% compared to prior year. Continued customer destocking dynamics resulted in reduced volumes for all segments.

請翻到投影片第 9 頁。本季 Ashland 總銷售額為 5.18 億美元，較去年同期下降 18%。持續的客戶去庫存動態導致所有事業部門的銷量下降。

Pricing was favorable for all segments except Intermediates. Foreign currency had a favorable impact on sales of 2%. Gross margin declined to 24.9%, driven primarily by the $58 million of inventory actions in the quarter.

除中間體（Intermediates）外，各業務區隔的定價皆有利。外幣對銷售帶來2%的有利影響。毛利率下滑至24.9%，主要受本季5,800萬美元的庫存相關措施所驅動。

When excluding key items, SG&A, R&D and intangible amortization costs were $116 million down, from $123 million in the prior year, largely reflecting lower incentive compensation accruals.

若排除關鍵項目，本季SG&A、R&D及無形資產攤銷成本為1.16億美元，較去年同期的1.23億美元下降，主要反映較低的獎金激勵薪酬提列。

In total, Ashland's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $74 million, down 50% from the prior year. Ashland's adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 14.3%, down from 23.3% in the prior year, again, reflecting the factors I just discussed.

整體而言，Ashland本季調整後EBITDA為7,400萬美元，較去年同期下降50%。本季調整後EBITDA利潤率為14.3%，低於去年同期的23.3%，同樣反映我剛才討論的因素。

Adjusted EPS, excluding acquisition amortization for the quarter was $0.41, down from $1.46 in the prior year quarter. Ongoing free cash flow improved to $104 million for the quarter, primarily reflecting changes in working capital stemming from our internal inventory control actions.

本季調整後EPS（不含併購攤銷）為0.41美元，低於去年同期的1.46美元。持續性自由現金流提升至本季1.04億美元，主要反映因我們內部庫存控管措施所帶來的營運資金變動。

Now let's review the results of each of our 4 operating segments. Please turn to Slide 10. Within Life Sciences, demand for our pharmaceutical ingredients remained healthy, though volumes were down a bit versus a strong prior year period. Nutraceuticals demonstrated a nice recovery. Sales to nutrition end markets remain challenged. Overall, pricing for Life Sciences was favorable.

現在讓我們檢視四個營運部門各自的表現。請翻到投影片10。在生命科學（Life Sciences）方面，我們的藥用成分需求仍然健康，但相較於去年同期強勁表現，銷量略有下滑。營養保健品（Nutraceuticals）呈現良好復甦。營養終端市場的銷售仍面臨挑戰。整體而言，生命科學的定價有利。

In total, Life Sciences sales declined by 5% to $203 million, while adjusted EBITDA decreased by 16% to $48 million. Inventory control actions in the quarter impacted EBITDA by approximately $6 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased to 23.6%, primarily reflecting the impact of inventory control actions.

整體而言，生命科學銷售下滑5%至2.03億美元，而調整後EBITDA下降16%至4,800萬美元。本季庫存控管措施對EBITDA的影響約為600萬美元。調整後EBITDA利潤率降至23.6%，主要反映庫存控管措施的影響。

Please turn to Slide 11. Continued customer destocking negatively impacted Personal Care in the quarter. For the quarter, Personal Care sales declined by 22% to $146 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined 36% to $36 million. Pricing continues to hold, but margins were negatively impacted by lower volumes, driven by customer restocking, $5 million of inventory control actions and negative mix.

請翻到投影片11。本季持續的客戶去庫存對個人護理（Personal Care）造成負面影響。本季個人護理銷售下滑22%至1.46億美元，而調整後EBITDA下滑36%至3,600萬美元。定價仍維持穩健，但利潤率受到較低銷量的不利影響；該銷量下滑由客戶補庫存、500萬美元的庫存控管措施以及不利的產品組合所驅動。

Please turn to Slide 12. Specialty Additives was impacted by reduced demand, primarily related to continued customer destocking, though the architectural coatings end market was less impacted than others in the business. Pricing remained positive in the quarter versus prior year. However, volume declines due to destocking, primarily in construction and Performance Specialties as well as nearly $38 million of inventory control actions by the team negatively impacted profitability in the quarter.

請翻到投影片12。特殊添加劑（Specialty Additives）受到需求下降影響，主要與客戶持續去庫存有關；不過建築塗料（architectural coatings）終端市場受影響程度低於該業務的其他領域。本季相較去年同期，定價仍為正向。然而，由於去庫存導致的銷量下滑（主要在建築與性能特種（Performance Specialties）領域），以及團隊近3,800萬美元的庫存控管措施，使本季獲利能力受到負面影響。

Specialty Additives is our highest volume business and is also the landlord for several large manufacturing facilities that also serve the other segments, and therefore, experienced a larger share of the result of the inventory control actions in the quarter. For the quarter, Specialty Additives sales declined by 23% to $144 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined by 81% to $8 million.

特殊添加劑是我們銷量最高的業務，同時也是數座大型製造設施的「房東」，這些設施亦服務其他部門；因此，本季其承擔了較大比例的庫存控管措施影響。本季特殊添加劑銷售下滑23%至1.44億美元，而調整後EBITDA下滑81%至800萬美元。

Please turn to Slide 13. Intermediates reported sales of $37 million, down 42% compared to the prior year, driven by lower pricing and volumes. Intermediates reported adjusted EBITDA of $3 million compared to $17 million in the prior year, and adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 8.1%. The inventory control actions impacted earnings by $9 million in the quarter.

請翻到投影片13。中間體（Intermediates）銷售為3,700萬美元，較去年同期下降42%，主要由較低的定價與銷量所致。中間體調整後EBITDA為300萬美元，去年同期為1,700萬美元；調整後EBITDA利潤率降至8.1%。本季庫存控管措施對獲利的影響為900萬美元。

Please turn to Slide 14. Fiscal 2023 was obviously a very challenging year. While pricing remains strong throughout the year, customer destocking and the related impacts on revenue and plant loading resulted in decreases in most financial metrics. That being said, it is important to note that in fiscal 2023, Ashland generated strong ongoing free cash flow, which increased meaningfully versus prior year.

請翻到投影片14。2023會計年度顯然是非常具挑戰的一年。雖然全年定價仍然強勁，但客戶去庫存及其對營收與工廠稼動率（plant loading）的相關影響，導致多數財務指標下滑。即便如此，仍需強調的是，在2023會計年度，Ashland產生了強勁的持續性自由現金流，且較去年同期顯著增加。

Please turn to Slide 15. As of the end of September, we had cash on hand of $417 million, with total available liquidity of roughly $1.1 billion. Our net debt was $913 million, which is about 2 turns of leverage. We have no floating rate debt outstanding, no long-term debt maturities for the next 4 years, and all of our outstanding debt is subject to investment-grade style credit terms.

請翻到投影片15。截至9月底，我們手上現金為4.17億美元，可用總流動性約11億美元。我們的淨負債為9.13億美元，約為2倍槓桿。我們沒有任何未償還的浮動利率債務，未來4年也沒有長期債務到期，且所有未償債務皆適用投資級（investment-grade）風格的信用條款。

As discussed, we took proactive inventory control actions to reduce inventory by $86 million in the quarter. Not only did these actions better position us for continued uncertainty, they also supported a generation of $104 million of ongoing free cash flow in the quarter, which was nearly half of our ongoing free cash flow for the fiscal year.

如前所述，我們採取主動的庫存控管措施，使本季庫存減少8,600萬美元。這些措施不僅讓我們更能因應持續的不確定性，也支撐本季產生1.04億美元的持續性自由現金流，約占本會計年度持續性自由現金流的近一半。

We are investing in our existing businesses and technology platforms to grow organically and continue to pursue our strategy of enhanced profitable growth through targeted bolt-on M&A opportunities focused on pharma, personal care and coatings.

我們正投資於既有業務與技術平台，以推動有機成長，並持續推進我們的策略：透過聚焦於製藥、個人護理與塗料領域的目標性補強型併購（bolt-on M&A）機會，提升獲利性成長。

Against a backdrop of global uncertainty, Ashland's balance sheet is well positioned to give us the flexibility to pursue our targeted growth strategy as well as reward our shareholders with a strong dividend policy and continued share repurchase.

在全球不確定性的背景下，Ashland的資產負債表具備良好定位，讓我們有彈性推動目標成長策略，同時以強健的股利政策與持續的庫藏股回購回饋股東。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Guillermo to discuss our outlook for fiscal year '24. Guillermo?

接下來，我把電話交回給Guillermo，請他說明我們對2024會計年度的展望。Guillermo？

Thank you, Kevin. Please turn to Slide 17. I'd like to spend a few minutes providing my take on the challenges that we and others in our industry are likely to face during 2024.

謝謝你，Kevin。請翻到投影片17。我想花幾分鐘分享我對2024年我們以及同業可能面臨挑戰的看法。

From a macro perspective, let me comment on 3 drivers. First, demand uncertainty. There are continuing concerns about the prospect of a global recession and economic slowdown, and there is risk of geopolitical uncertainty across different regions of the world. Of most concern are the potential economic headwinds facing the U.S., Europe and China. We don't yet know if or how these headwinds will impact the buying patterns of our customers and the global consumer.

從總體角度來看，我想談三個驅動因素。第一，需求不確定性。市場對全球衰退與經濟放緩的疑慮仍在，且世界各地不同區域也存在地緣政治不確定性的風險。最令人擔憂的是美國、歐洲與中國可能面臨的經濟逆風。我們尚不清楚這些逆風是否、以及將如何影響客戶與全球消費者的採購模式。

The question of when destocking will end is front of mind for most companies in our industry. Given the back end of the year recovery expectations, there continues to be uncertainty regarding the timing of the end of the customer destocking and demand normalization.

去庫存何時結束，是本產業多數公司最關注的問題。鑑於年末復甦的預期，客戶去庫存結束與需求正常化的時間點仍存在不確定性。

Based on consumer demand, the good news is that our customer sales volumes are starting to normalize. However, customers in the end markets we serve continue to hold elevated macro levels of inventory, so some destocking may persist longer.

從消費需求來看，好消息是我們客戶的銷售量正開始正常化。然而，我們所服務的終端市場客戶仍維持偏高的總體庫存水位，因此去庫存可能會持續更久。

Second is margin management. Maintaining pricing discipline will remain critical throughout the year, depending on demand recovery, pricing pressures will vary across different segments. Although we expect some improvement in raw material costs and cost improvement will take a while to have impact as we work through existing inventory.

第二是利潤率管理。視需求復甦情況而定，定價壓力在不同部門間將有所差異，因此全年維持定價紀律仍至關重要。雖然我們預期原物料成本會有些改善，但成本改善需要一段時間才會在我們消化既有庫存後反映出來。

Even as volumes demands normalizes, the demand is expected to be below prior years. This will be reflected in higher and more volatile unit conversion costs. Companies will need to work diligently to maintain margins through disciplined actions across the supply chain.

即使銷量需求正常化，預期需求仍將低於往年。這將反映在更高且更波動的單位轉換成本（unit conversion costs）上。企業需要在供應鏈各環節採取有紀律的行動，努力維持利潤率。

And third is new growth drivers. The commercial success of new innovation platforms is critical to the long-term growth opportunities for the company. We have focused on building a strong balance sheet and financial strength so that in spite of the near-term challenges, we can invest and drive our globalized and innovate growth strategies.

第三是新的成長驅動因素。新創新平台的商業成功，對公司長期成長機會至關重要。我們著重打造強健的資產負債表與財務實力，使我們即便面臨短期挑戰，仍能投資並推動全球化與創新成長策略。

Although we expect most of the impact of these investments to begin in fiscal year '25, we will work diligently to accelerate their impact in fiscal year '24.

雖然我們預期這些投資的大部分影響將自2025會計年度開始顯現，但我們將努力在2024會計年度加速其影響。

All told, given the uncertainty, fiscal year '24 is a difficult year to forecast at this time.

總體而言，鑑於不確定性，目前2024會計年度是一個難以預測的一年。

Please turn to Slide 18. To build our plans, we analyzed numerous scenarios. As I indicated, the big variables impacting outlook are volume demand and margins, with demand being the biggest variable.

請翻到投影片18。為了制定計畫，我們分析了多種情境。如我所述，影響展望的主要變數是銷量需求與利潤率，其中需求是最大的變數。

Primary impact on all the scenarios is the timing of demand normalization. From a volume demand perspective, 3 scenarios provided the greatest insights into actions that we should take. No demand recovery, demand recovery during the March quarter, and delayed demand recovery during the June quarter. Each of these scenarios yield the significant variation in results for the year, and they are discrete outcomes. You cannot average them to a midpoint performance.

所有情境的主要影響因素是需求正常化的時間點。從銷量需求角度來看，有三種情境最能提供我們應採取行動的洞見：需求不復甦、需求在3月季度復甦，以及需求延後至6月季度才復甦。這些情境將導致全年結果出現顯著差異，且屬於離散結果；你不能把它們平均成一個中間值表現。

Our objective is to build resilience and pursue actions that best position Ashland to maximize performance across each of these scenarios.

我們的目標是建立韌性，並採取最能讓Ashland在各種情境下將績效最大化的行動。

Please turn to Slide 19. At a recent innovation day, we laid out our business model and the strategic priorities that will drive our actions, investments and profitable growth expectations. First, disciplined execution across our core businesses, investing in them for the strength and growth of those high-value segments where we have market and technology leadership, and to take the needed portfolio actions to address underperforming business that are not core and where we do not have technology or market leadership.

請翻到投影片19。在近期的創新日（innovation day）上，我們闡述了商業模式與將驅動我們行動、投資及獲利性成長預期的策略優先事項。第一，在核心業務上有紀律地執行，投資於那些我們具備市場與技術領導地位的高價值部門，以強化與成長；並採取必要的投資組合調整行動，以處理表現不佳、非核心且我們不具備技術或市場領導地位的業務。

Second is globalize some of our high-value growth businesses.

第二是將我們部分高價值成長型業務全球化。

Third is to drive innovation across both existing and new technology platforms.

第三是推動既有與新技術平台的全面創新。

And fourth, to leverage bolt-on M&A to augment our growth capabilities for our big 3 businesses: pharma, personal care and coatings.

第四是運用補強型併購（bolt-on M&A）來增強我們三大業務——製藥、個人護理與塗料——的成長能力。

Let me start with the first focus area, execute. Please turn to Slide 20. In this environment, just cutting costs will not build the resilience we need. We will take more targeted actions to reduce volatility and performance risk. We will also position our core businesses for more reliable operations to leverage the eventual volume recovery.

我先從第一個重點領域——執行——開始。請翻到第20頁投影片。在這樣的環境下，僅僅削減成本無法建立我們所需的韌性。我們將採取更具針對性的行動，以降低波動性與績效風險。我們也將讓核心業務具備更可靠的營運，以便在最終需求量回升時加以掌握。

During the last year, we have been clear that we need to address some of the strategic structural portfolio gaps with several businesses that are either not a strategic fit or have been structurally underperforming for a long time.

在過去一年，我們已明確表示需要針對若干業務處理一些策略性、結構性的投資組合缺口；這些業務要麼不符合策略定位，要麼長期結構性表現不佳。

At a high level, we have 2 noncore businesses, our nutraceuticals, which has no integration into our core businesses. And to a lesser degree, our Intermediates business, which does have back integration into our core businesses.

從高層次來看，我們有兩項非核心業務：營養保健品（nutraceuticals），它與我們核心業務沒有整合；以及程度較低的中間體（Intermediates）業務，該業務確實與我們核心業務存在向後整合。

From an underperforming side, we have 3 businesses that we've identified, our MC, our MC-Industrial and our Avoca businesses.

從表現不佳的角度來看，我們已辨識出三項業務：MC、MC-Industrial，以及Avoca業務。

As we stated in last week's earnings update, we are executing on 4 primary portfolio optimization actions to strengthen our base, build resilience and improve profitability. Our plan is as follows: first, divest our nutraceutical business; second, optimize and consolidate our CMC business; third, optimize and consolidate our MC-Industrial business, and finally, rebalance our global HEC production network.

如同我們在上週的財報更新中所述，我們正在執行四項主要的投資組合優化行動，以強化基礎、建立韌性並提升獲利能力。我們的計畫如下：第一，出售營養保健品業務；第二，優化並整併CMC業務；第三，優化並整併MC-Industrial業務；最後，重新平衡我們全球HEC生產網路。

The first 3 actions align with our business model and strategic priorities. The nutraceuticals business is a good business. However, like the adhesive business that we divested last year, there are higher-value owners in the marketplace in Ashland where this business can thrive if it's part of the core business and strategy.

前三項行動與我們的商業模式與策略優先事項一致。營養保健品業務本身是一項好業務。然而，就像我們去年出售的黏著劑業務一樣，在市場上存在更高價值的所有者；對Ashland而言，若該業務能成為買方的核心業務與策略的一部分，便能更好地茁壯。

Our CMC and MC-Industrial businesses, even at peak performance, have not delivered the investment economics. We're also not the market leaders or technology leaders in this space, hence the strategic decision to optimize and consolidate. Their performance has also been volatile given their profile of low gross profit margin and high-cost absorption margin.

我們的CMC與MC-Industrial業務，即使在高峰表現時，也未能帶來符合投資經濟性的回報。我們在此領域也不是市場領導者或技術領導者，因此做出優化與整併的策略決策。由於其毛利率偏低且成本吸收幅度高，其績效也一直較為波動。

In order to enhance profitability and reduce volatility in the portfolio, we will narrow our participation to core segments where we can differentiate, improve profitability and deliver value for our customers.

為了提升投資組合的獲利能力並降低波動性，我們將縮小參與範圍，聚焦於我們能夠差異化、提升獲利並為客戶創造價值的核心細分領域。

On the other hand, HEC is a very strong business that is core and where Ashland enjoys both technical and market leadership. We have been investing for growth and see opportunities to drive productivity and optimize our global network.

另一方面，HEC是一項非常強勁且屬於核心的業務，Ashland在技術與市場上都具備領導地位。我們一直在投資以推動成長，並看到提升生產力與優化全球網路的機會。

As we take these actions, we will be exploring opportunities to leverage these assets to repurpose and support our core growth initiatives.

在採取這些行動的同時，我們也將探索運用這些資產的機會，以重新用途（repurpose）並支援我們核心成長倡議。

Please turn to Slide 21. The portfolio actions we're taking will impact revenue, but we do not expect them to impact EBITDA once completed. Although we're still working on the exact timing, when completed, the actions are expected to have the following annualized impact to Ashland's financial results.

請翻到第21頁投影片。我們正在採取的投資組合行動將影響營收，但在完成後，我們預期不會影響EBITDA。雖然我們仍在釐清確切時程，但在完成後，預期這些行動對Ashland財務結果的年化影響如下。

The sales are expected to be reduced by between $200 million and $225 million. We expect lower gross profit impact of approximately $20 million or roughly a 10% margin. With nutraceutical margin being higher than CMC and MC Industrial, which have very low gross profit margins.

預期銷售額將減少2億至2.25億美元。我們預期毛利將降低約2,000萬美元，或約10%的毛利率影響。因為營養保健品的毛利率高於CMC與MC Industrial，而後兩者的毛利率非常低。

Stranded manufacturing at SAR will be about $80 million. The CMC and MC-Industrial businesses have largely been run to absorb costs within the manufacturing network, which makes them more volatile given the low markets.

SAR的閒置製造成本（stranded manufacturing）約為8,000萬美元。CMC與MC-Industrial業務在很大程度上一直是為了在製造網路內吸收成本而運作，這使得在市場低迷時其波動性更高。

As we complete our portfolio actions, we expect to offset the gross profit and stranded costs with no negative impact to Ashland's adjusted EBITDA. All else being equal, this will result in additional capital from the nutraceutical sale, increased free cash flow from reduced working capital and CapEx, expanded EBITDA margins of 200 to 250 basis points, increased return on net assets of 150 to 200 basis points, and the ability to better leverage our assets and resources to support core businesses.

隨著我們完成投資組合行動，我們預期以不對Ashland調整後EBITDA造成負面影響為前提，抵銷毛利下降與閒置成本。其他條件不變下，這將帶來：來自營養保健品出售的額外資金、因營運資金與資本支出（CapEx）降低而增加的自由現金流、EBITDA利潤率擴大200至250個基點、淨資產報酬率提高150至200個基點，以及更有效運用我們的資產與資源以支援核心業務的能力。

We expect to complete the portfolio optimization by the end of calendar year 2024.

我們預期在2024曆年年底前完成投資組合優化。

Please turn to Slide 22. As I commented, the near-term challenges need to be addressed, but they do not change our excitement about the future. We're confident about our business model and strategy and the opportunities that lie ahead, and we'll invest in our future, which brings me to the second focus area of our strategic priorities that we discussed at Innovation Day: globalize, innovate and acquire to [profitably] grow in the core of Ashland.

請翻到第22頁投影片。如我所述，短期挑戰需要被處理，但這不會改變我們對未來的期待。我們對自身的商業模式與策略，以及前方的機會充滿信心；我們也將投資於未來。這也帶到我們在創新日（Innovation Day）討論的策略優先事項第二個重點領域：全球化、創新與併購，以在Ashland核心領域實現[獲利性]成長。

Please turn to Slide 23. Each of these components of our strategy are linked to our commitment to invest, a passion to win and a great sense of urgency. We are investing to globalize core of our higher-growth, higher-margin businesses, namely bifunctionals, preservatives, pharmaceutical injectables, and oral solid dose film coatings. We are adding in commercial and technical resources across the globe to accelerate growth in these product lines and expect to invest more than $5 million this year to support these efforts and will increase our investment in fiscal year '25 and '26.

請翻到第23頁投影片。我們策略的每一個組成部分都與我們的投資承諾、必勝的熱情以及高度的急迫感相連結。我們正投資以推動核心的高成長、高毛利業務全球化，亦即雙官能（bifunctionals）、防腐劑（preservatives）、藥用注射劑（pharmaceutical injectables）以及口服固體劑型薄膜包衣（oral solid dose film coatings）。我們正在全球增補商務與技術資源，以加速這些產品線的成長；預期今年將投入超過500萬美元以支援這些工作，並將在2025與2026財年增加投資。

We're also investing in our innovation pipeline. For existing technologies, we're keeping a keen focus on scalable, high-value, high-impact opportunities. And equally, we're investing in new technology platforms to accelerate the commercialization across end markets by getting products into the hands of our customers faster. These technologies can expand our addressable market opportunities within both our core markets as well as new markets.

我們也在投資我們的創新管線。對於既有技術，我們持續高度聚焦於可擴展、高價值、高影響力的機會。同樣地，我們也投資新的技術平台，透過更快把產品交到客戶手中，加速在終端市場的商業化。這些技術可在我們核心市場以及新市場中，擴大我們可觸及的市場機會。

We will invest more than $5 million in new technical and commercial resources to drive enhanced growth within the new technology platforms. And we are continuing to pursue our strategy to grow organically by acquiring bolt-on technologies to enhance our big 3 core businesses of pharma, personal care and coatings, but we will maintain capital allocation discipline as we pursue those opportunities.

我們將在新的技術與商務資源上投入超過500萬美元，以推動新技術平台的更強勁成長。我們也將持續推進策略，透過收購補強型技術來強化我們三大核心業務——製藥、個人護理與塗料——以實現有機成長，但在追求這些機會時，我們將維持資本配置紀律。

I want to be clear. Now please turn to Slide 24. I want to be clear, we recognize that these are challenging times for our industry, but we also recognize the opportunities that lie ahead. We will maintain a balance to both address the urgency of the moment, and the commitment to the future.

我想說清楚。現在請翻到第24頁投影片。我想說清楚，我們認知到這對我們產業而言是艱難的時期，但我們也看見前方的機會。我們將在應對當下的急迫性與對未來的承諾之間維持平衡。

Please turn to Slide 26. Given all the dynamics at play, I would like to provide some high-level bridging items to fiscal year 2024. First, for discrete items. During the year, we will reset compensation expense, including both merit and incentives, which will total approximately $40 million.

請翻到第26頁投影片。鑑於各種動態因素，我想提供一些針對2024財年的高層次銜接項目。首先，就一次性（discrete）項目而言：在本年度，我們將重設薪酬費用，包括調薪（merit）與獎酬（incentives），合計約4,000萬美元。

We have built our plans and actions around creating more resilient performance across the scenarios we previously commented. The biggest variables being the timing of demand recovery and the resulting plant loading during the year, managing margin performance and accelerating the impact of portfolio optimization actions.

我們的計畫與行動是圍繞著在先前所提到的各種情境下，打造更具韌性的績效表現。最大的變數包括：需求復甦的時點，以及因此在年度內的工廠稼動（plant loading）；毛利表現的管理；以及加速投資組合優化行動的影響落地。

Please turn to Slide 27. Our outlook is based on the following: recovery of core business is likely to be back-end loaded into the second half of the fiscal year. We expect lower pricing in Intermediates, and that the impact of this in fiscal year '24 of our portfolio actions will be layered into our models as we engage with all stakeholders.

請翻到第27頁投影片。我們的展望基於以下假設：核心業務的復甦可能會偏向在財年下半年才顯現。我們預期中間體（Intermediates）價格走低；而我們投資組合行動在2024財年的影響，將在我們與所有利害關係人互動時逐步納入模型。

Given the overall uncertainty, we do not feel it's prudent to issue a formal outlook first fiscal year of '24. Fiscal year Q1 tends to be our seasonally soft this quarter. Our outlook for Q1 is for sales to be in the range of $470 million to $490 million, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $55 million to $65 million. This outlook is driven by weaker demand, with October results slightly stronger than our expectations, November building up per our expectations, and with the risk of potential customer year-end destocking actions in December.

鑑於整體不確定性，我們認為在2024財年第一年發布正式展望並不審慎。財年第一季通常是我們季節性較疲弱的一季。我們對第一季的展望為：銷售額介於4.7億至4.9億美元之間，調整後EBITDA介於5,500萬至6,500萬美元之間。此展望反映需求較弱；10月結果略優於我們預期，11月如預期般回升，同時12月存在客戶在年底可能進行去庫存（destocking）行動的風險。

Lower production volumes, including some carryover inventory actions, will impact the quarter and lower Intermediates pricing.

較低的生產量（包括部分延續性的庫存處置行動）將影響本季，此外中間體（Intermediates）價格也較低。

For the full year, the color that we can provide is that we expect fiscal year Q2 demand to remain muted given seasonality. Based on the scenarios we model, which are just that scenarios, to prepare the actions that we need to take to drive performance. If demand recovery occurs sooner than anticipated, we can anticipate adjusted EBITDA margins to be above $500 million range for the year. If there is no demand, recovery in fiscal year '24, earnings could be below fiscal year '23, given the compensation we reset. There's a wide range of scenarios, and this is what's driving a lot of the actions that we're taking so that we can drive performance across all these scenarios.

就全年而言，我們能提供的補充說明是：考量季節性因素，我們預期2024財年第二季需求仍將偏弱。根據我們建模的情境——也僅是情境——用以準備我們需要採取的行動以推動績效。若需求復甦早於預期，我們可預期全年調整後EBITDA將高於5億美元區間。若2024財年沒有需求復甦，考量我們重設的薪酬，獲利可能低於2023財年。情境範圍很廣，而這正是推動我們採取多項行動的原因，讓我們能在所有這些情境下都能推動績效。

It is important to note that while earnings up for the Intermediates segment are likely to be down meaningfully next year due to lower volumes and market pricing, our core businesses are expected to perform regionally do well. We will provide an updated outlook for the full year at our fiscal first quarter earnings call.

需要注意的是，雖然由於較低的銷量與市場定價，中間體（Intermediates）事業部的獲利明年很可能會顯著下滑，但我們的核心業務預期在各區域仍將有良好表現。我們將在本財年第一季財報電話會議上提供全年最新展望。

Please turn to Slide 29. In closing, our approach for our fiscal year is straightforward. Build resilience by focusing on clarity of action in the face of uncertainty. We will stay on strategy, maintain operating capital allocation discipline and take appropriate actions to maximize fiscal year '24 performance. This includes optimizing our portfolio, focusing on our core businesses, and perhaps, more importantly, continuing to invest on our long-term growth strategy.

請翻到第29頁投影片。最後，我們本財年的做法很直接：在不確定性下，透過聚焦明確的行動來建立韌性。我們將堅守策略、維持營運資本配置紀律，並採取適當行動以最大化2024財年的表現。這包括優化我們的產品組合、聚焦核心業務，以及更重要的是，持續投資於我們的長期成長策略。

Despite the challenging environment, we remain confident in the quality and resilience of the markets we serve and our future. I want to thank the Ashland team again for their leadership and proactive ownership of their businesses in these uncertain times. Thank you for your attention. And Abigail, if we could move to Q&A.

儘管環境充滿挑戰，我們仍對所服務市場的品質與韌性，以及我們的未來充滿信心。我想再次感謝Ashland團隊在這些不確定時期展現的領導力，以及對各自業務的主動承擔。感謝各位的聆聽。Abigail，如果可以的話，我們進入問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）的David Begleiter。

Guillermo, Kevin, just on the inventory control actions, why the number is so big? The $58 million cost reduction inventory in F Q4 versus the $86 million reduction inventory seems high. Is that just under absorption or is there also some write-offs you're taking on the inventory?

Guillermo、Kevin，關於庫存控管行動，為什麼數字這麼大？第四財季（F Q4）因庫存而產生的5,800萬美元成本降低，相較於8,600萬美元的庫存降低幅度看起來偏高。這只是因為吸收不足（under absorption），還是你們也對庫存做了一些減記（write-offs）？

So one comment I'll make, and Kevin, you can get into the more details. There is a bit of carryover into Q1, as we said, and some of the inventory, also reduction actions are coming through already in October. So there's just also a quarter-on-quarter delta. But Kevin, do you want to give more color?

我先補充一點，Kevin你可以再說明細節。如我們所說，確實有一部分延續到第一季（Q1），而且部分庫存降低行動在10月就已經開始反映。因此也存在季度對季度的差異。但Kevin，你要不要再多補充一些？

Yes. Guillermo, that's right. There is some timing difference in terms of the overall inventory sizing. We did see $86 million in Q4. So far, in Q1, we've seen more inventory come down and so part of that is just timing.

是的，Guillermo，你說得對。就整體庫存規模而言，確實存在一些時間點差異。我們在第四季看到的是8,600萬美元。到目前為止，在第一季我們看到庫存進一步下降，所以其中一部分就是時間點因素。

Every quarter, we have a certain amount of write-offs, and Q4 was no different. So I don't think there's really much to talk about there, but that's always part of the equation for us, just normal ordinary course. So I would say, most of it is going to be timing, presuming we see inventory at the end of the quarter where we ended in October, there's more to come on the overall inventory reduction in this quarter.

每一季我們都會有一定程度的減記，第四季也不例外。所以我認為這部分沒有太多需要特別說明，但它一直都是我們計算中的一部分，屬於正常、例行的情況。我會說，大部分將是時間點因素；假設本季末的庫存水位與我們在10月底的水位相近，那麼本季整體庫存降低還會有更多進展。

Not a lot of cost related to that, though. And we will, in the quarter, naturally see lower absorption because we're running our plants to demand and demand is down. But there is a bit of a timing difference between what we saw in Q4 and what we'll see in Q1 relative to the inventory control piece of the equation.

不過，與此相關的成本並不多。而且在本季，我們自然會看到較低的吸收率，因為我們是依需求來運轉工廠，而需求正在下滑。但就庫存控管這一塊而言，第四季與第一季之間確實存在一些時間點差異。

That's helpful. I appreciate that. And just on the stranded costs, can you talk to the $80 million you're going to remove, how are you going to get at those stranded costs?

這很有幫助，謝謝。再問一下關於閒置成本（stranded costs），你們要移除的8,000萬美元，打算如何處理這些閒置成本？

There's multiple actions that we're taking, obviously, as we optimize. The one area, and I understand there's going to be a lot of questions on that. We are engaging all our stakeholders, customers, the groups that are impacted.

我們在優化過程中採取了多項行動。某一個領域——我也理解大家會有很多問題——我們正在與所有利害關係人溝通，包括客戶以及受影響的團體。

So there's a lot of activities, [works councils], things of that nature. So we don't want to go into a lot of detail. But it's going to come from cross actions. We're going to take some cost actions. I think a lot of productivity and plant activities will be a key driver. The optimization of our network is going to be probably the biggest driver. And it is about the absorption costs. As I indicated during my comments, the gross profit side is going to be lower. It's lower. Most of the gross profit is coming from nutraceuticals.

因此會有很多活動，[works councils]（工會／員工代表委員會）之類的事項。所以我們不想在此深入太多細節。但這將來自多方面的行動：我們會採取一些成本措施；我認為大量的生產力提升與工廠端活動將是關鍵驅動因素；而我們網路（據點）優化很可能會是最大的驅動因素。這也與吸收成本有關。如我在發言中提到的，毛利端將會較低，確實較低。毛利的大部分來自營養保健品（nutraceuticals）。

So the other 2 businesses, you can see the volatility that they bring and why we need to take action because there's very little upside and more downside if the volumes don't return.

因此另外兩項業務，你可以看到它們帶來的波動性，以及為什麼我們需要採取行動：如果銷量沒有回升，幾乎沒有上行空間，反而下行風險更大。

And to be clear, in both CMC and MC, we are not the market leader. The other players are multiples bigger than us; these are not core technologies. So honing in on really the higher quality segments where we do have technology modifications that we've made that can differentiate and add value for both us and for our customers. Those are the areas that we want to focus on.

而且要說清楚，在CMC與MC兩個領域，我們都不是市場領導者。其他競爭者的規模是我們的數倍；這些也不是核心技術。因此我們要聚焦在更高品質的細分市場，在那些我們已做出技術改良、能夠形成差異化並為我們與客戶創造價值的領域。這些才是我們想要專注的方向。

Our next question comes from John McNulty with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自BMO的John McNulty。

So I guess, just to help us to think about what's embedded in the 1Q outlook for EBITDA? It sounds like there's not as much inventory, kind of destocking of your own in there, as there maybe was of the last quarter 2. But can you help us to quantify that so we can kind of think about what normalized is at least right now in this demand environment versus how much is being impacted by the destocking?

我想請你們協助我們理解第一季（1Q）EBITDA展望中包含了哪些因素？聽起來其中自家庫存去化（destocking）的影響，可能不像前兩個季度那麼大。但你們能否幫我們量化一下，讓我們在目前的需求環境下，能思考什麼是較「正常化」的水準，以及有多少是受到去庫存影響？

Yes, great question, John. And just to be clear, I'll use 2023 to sort of level set what everybody is thinking then we can comment on our first quarter. And Kevin, you can comment on any other color later.

是的，John，這個問題很好。為了說清楚，我會先用2023年來做一個基準，讓大家對情況有一致理解，然後我們再談第一季。Kevin之後也可以再補充其他細節。

But if you look at 2023, we overproduced, inventories were high coming in and we overproduced in the first half. If you look at it because expectations were higher. And by the time everybody realized, hey, the destocking isn't going to be short, it's long run. Most of the actions were taken in the second half.

如果你看2023年，我們產量過高，期初庫存就偏高，而且上半年我們也過度生產。因為當時的預期較高。等到大家意識到，去庫存不是短期而是長期趨勢時，多數行動是在下半年才採取。

But if we had produced the demand from the beginning of the year, so that was my hindsight comment. If we just produced the demand, the result would have been the same. The destocking actions were just that we had to reduce client operations to offset the overproduction in the first half.

但如果我們從年初就按需求生產——這是我事後回顧的看法——結果其實會一樣。所謂去庫存行動，只是因為我們必須降低客戶端的運作（出貨／供應）來抵消上半年過度生產所造成的影響。

Now that we have inventory set, we brought them down to where we think it's acceptable. And we target that based on days on forecast, forward-looking forecast. So if demand takes longer, we might be having a little bit higher, if demand picks up, we might have a little bit lower. So we'll manage, but we feel comfortable where we are now that we will produce to demand.

現在我們已把庫存調整到我們認為可接受的水位。我們是以「依預測的天數」（days on forecast）與前瞻性預測為基礎來設定目標。因此如果需求復甦需要更久，庫存可能會略高一些；如果需求回升，庫存可能會略低一些。我們會動態管理，但就目前而言，我們對現況感到安心，並將按需求生產。

That means that whatever the volume is, is what's going to get produced. And right now, that production volume is below historic levels because the customer volumes have not picked up yet to historic levels.

這代表需求量是多少，我們就生產多少。而目前的生產量低於歷史水準，因為客戶端的需求量尚未回到歷史水準。

So the real issue for us is when is their destocking going to end so that their demand, production demand aligns with their selling demand, which right now it's not aligned.

所以對我們而言，真正的問題是他們的去庫存何時結束，讓他們的需求——也就是生產需求——能與他們的銷售需求一致；而目前兩者並不一致。

So when those 2 things and they buy raw material, that will really drive our loan. So I would look, rather than talk about destocking anymore internally, we're talking about what is our production volumes. These are real costs now. These are not actions that we're taking. And until volumes do pick up, that's the challenge that your unit cost.

因此當這兩者一致、且他們開始採購原物料時，才會真正帶動我們的（業務）量。我會說，與其再談我們內部的去庫存，我們現在談的是我們的生產量。這些現在都是真實成本，不是我們正在採取的行動。只要銷量沒有回升，挑戰就在於你的單位成本。

And again, same answer as last question. That's why we're taking action on some of these lower margin, higher cost absorption business where we do not have a competitive advantage because they can bring a lot of volatility in these lower volume environments.

同樣地，這也呼應上一題的答案。這就是為什麼我們要對其中一些低毛利、吸收成本較高、且我們沒有競爭優勢的業務採取行動，因為在低銷量環境下，它們會帶來很大的波動性。

But Kevin, I don't know if you have any other comments?

Kevin，我不知道你是否還有其他補充？

Yes. Just a couple. If you look at the year-over-year delta from an EBITDA perspective, it's really driven by 2 things, John. And they're not exactly 50-50, but let's say, close enough. And that is, we expect revenue in Q1 of '24 to be down from Q1 of '23. And that's probably about half the difference.

有的，補充兩點。John，如果你從EBITDA的年對年差異來看，主要由兩個因素驅動。它們不一定剛好各占一半，但可以說大致接近。第一，我們預期2024財年第一季的營收會低於2023財年第一季，這大概占差異的一半。

And the other half is, in fact, slower manufacturing, producing to demand versus what we did instead of producing what we thought demand was going to be in Q1 of last year. Those 2 items together make up pretty much all the difference between last year, Q1, this year, Q1.

另一半則確實是製造端放緩：按需求生產，而不是像去年第一季那樣，按我們當時以為的需求來生產。這兩項加總起來，幾乎構成了去年第一季與今年第一季之間的全部差異。

If you look at it sequentially, it's really 2 things. Q1 is our seasonally weakest quarter. So we do expect revenue, and look at the midpoint, to be lower where than where we ended Q3; I'm sorry, Q4 of fiscal '23. And as Guillermo mentioned, resetting incentives would be the rest of those 2 items really drives the delta between Q4 of '23 and Q1 of '24.

如果你看季對季，主要也是兩點。第一季是我們季節性最弱的一季。因此我們確實預期營收（以中位數來看）會低於我們在2023財年第三季結束時——抱歉，是2023財年第四季結束時——的水準。第二，如Guillermo提到的，重設激勵（resetting incentives）等因素，構成了其餘部分，並驅動了2023財年第四季與2024財年第一季之間的差異。

Got it. Okay. No, that's helpful. That makes sense.

了解。好。沒有，這很有幫助。這很合理。

And then I guess just one follow-up question would be on the nutraceuticals business. Can you just help us to understand roughly what the sales and EBITDA currently is for that business on an annual basis? If you kind of take out the destocking that you saw earlier in the year, just so we have kind of a rough baseline for that.

接著我想再追問一個關於營養保健品（nutraceuticals）業務的問題。你能否協助我們大致了解一下，該業務目前按年計的銷售額與 EBITDA 約是多少？如果把你們年初看到的去庫存（destocking）因素剔除，讓我們有一個大概的基準。

Yes. We're starting the process. We'll start sharing more details with the interested parties on this. But roughly, you can estimate around $100 million in sales and the gross profits are in the 20% range.

是的。我們正在啟動這個流程。我們會開始向有興趣的各方分享更多細節。但大致上，你可以估算年銷售額約 1 億美元，毛利率約在 20% 左右。

Our next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS.

下一個問題來自 UBS 的 Joshua Spector。

This is Lucas coming on for Josh. So I'm just trying to think about what the normalized environment looks like. So I mean, over the last 5 years, Ashland sort of had EBITDA that's going to range from like mid-400s to basically high 500s on a like-for-like basis, so like excluding sort of the divested businesses.

我是 Lucas，代 Josh 提問。我在思考所謂「常態化」環境會是什麼樣子。過去 5 年，Ashland 的 EBITDA（以同口徑、也就是排除已剝離業務後）大概落在 4 億多美元中段到接近 5 億多美元高段的區間。

So without thinking of the outcome of this year, specifically, given all the disruption with volumes, you've exited some volumes in the portfolio. We've had the destocking. I mean, can you just give us your view on like what is your current view on the normalized earnings power of the portfolio once we get back to a normal environment?

所以不特別去想今年的結果，考量到量的各種擾動、你們也在產品組合中退出了一些量，還有去庫存。我是想請你們談談：一旦回到正常環境，你們目前對整體組合的常態化獲利能力（normalized earnings power）看法是什麼？

As I indicated through the scenarios, you can see the wide range of just when demand recovery would happen. So if you say, look, we're normalized and our volumes are more in line with our customers, most of our customer volumes are now normalizing to flattish versus prior year. So that's a big increase for us.

如我在情境分析中所指出的，你可以看到需求復甦何時發生的範圍很廣。若你說：我們已經常態化，且我們的出貨量更貼近客戶的需求——目前我們多數客戶的出貨量正趨於常態化，與去年相比大致持平。對我們而言，這就是很大的提升。

So that would put us in the above $500 million range. If we just look at, obviously, 2022 and '20 and '21 for us, we're not a normal number because we were out of capacity. So volume, we didn't have volume growth and mostly is driven by pricing actions that we took.

那會使我們落在 5 億美元以上的區間。若回看 2022 年以及 2020、2021 年，對我們來說那不是常態數字，因為我們當時產能不足。所以量沒有成長，主要是由我們採取的定價行動所驅動。

But if you look at 2020, as an example, and you look at our growth expectations, long-term growth expectation, mid-single digits, that would put us around that number also in the low to mid-500s would be where we need to be in normalized demand.

但如果以 2020 年為例，並結合我們的成長預期、長期成長預期為中個位數百分比，那也會把我們帶到差不多的水準；在需求常態化時，我們應該在 5 億美元出頭到中段的區間。

The one I would say, is Intermediates, that obviously, and maybe in the future, we'll be talking more about our core businesses with Intermediates to differentiate. But the Intermediates business, although it's performing better than it has historically, obviously, it's still more of a commodity business and has its ups and downs. We've improved it a lot by focusing in on regions where we have competitive advantage, and unique supply positions.

我想特別提的是 Intermediates（中間體）業務。很明顯地，或許未來我們會更多談到如何區分包含 Intermediates 在內的核心業務。但 Intermediates 雖然表現比過去歷史更好，仍然更偏向大宗商品型業務，會有起伏。我們透過聚焦在我們具競爭優勢、且供應地位獨特的區域，已大幅改善它。

But the real growth for us there is an NMP and it's around the EV battery investments that are going on in the U.S. and Europe. And those probably will be more of a 2025 start-up for what we're hearing from many customers. So that part will be a little bit more volatile right now. But the rest of it should follow the model I just mentioned.

但我們在那裡真正的成長來自 NMP，並且與美國與歐洲正在進行的電動車電池投資相關。從許多客戶那裡聽到的情況是，那些可能要到 2025 年才會開始投產。因此那一塊目前會比較波動。不過其餘部分應該會遵循我剛提到的模式。

Right. And then just sort of focusing on pricing. I mean it sounds like from some of your comments that you're anticipating potentially that the prices will be lower this year. So I mean, are you seeing any declines across the portfolio? Yes. I guess like, what's your visibility on your ability into like holding price into this year? And if you think you can hold it, I just wonder if you could kind of elaborate for us on like what the dynamics there are as to why that's achievable for Ashland, like coming off volumes kind of being down a mid-teens percentage, which for most other businesses, you'd usually sort of see downward pricing pressure there, if that was happening.

了解。接著聚焦在定價上。從你的一些評論聽起來，你們可能預期今年價格會更低。所以你們是否看到整個產品組合出現任何降價？另外，你們對今年維持價格的能力可見度如何？如果你們認為能維持，我也想請你們進一步說明，為什麼 Ashland 能做到——尤其是在出貨量下滑約中十幾個百分點的情況下；對多數其他企業而言，通常會看到向下的價格壓力。

Well, I mean, you have to look across the portfolio of different segments. As I said, obviously, Intermediates, where we see more volatility, and that's already being seen in the results and we're managing through that. I think, especially in Asia, we're seeing more of that where there's a lot more producers, and that's not our core markets.

嗯，你必須從不同事業部的角度來看整個組合。如我所說，Intermediates 顯然波動更大，而這點已反映在業績中，我們也正在管理應對。我認為特別是在亞洲，我們看到更明顯的情況，因為那裡生產商更多，而那也不是我們的核心市場。

But in the rest of the portfolio, Again, one of the reasons we're taking actions on CMC and MC-Industrial, we are not the market leaders there. We're a small player. We see potential for much more volatility there. I mean, if I just look at historic performance, we managed pretty well in the last 2 years to improve the mix, to optimize in the environment we're in. This is a different environment. So the risk is higher, and that's why I think, rather than wait for things to happen, we're taking control of our destiny, and we're going to take actions on that. And that should minimize the impact of that kind of volatility, which is probably what we saw most of it in the past.

但在組合的其他部分，再次強調，我們之所以對 CMC 與 MC-Industrial 採取行動，是因為我們在那裡不是市場領導者，而是小型參與者；我們看到那裡可能有更大的波動。我是說，如果我看歷史表現，過去兩年我們透過改善組合、在所處環境中做最佳化，管理得相當不錯。但現在是不同的環境，所以風險更高。因此我認為與其等待事情發生，我們選擇掌握自己的命運，並採取行動。這應能把那種波動的影響降到最低——而那大概就是我們過去看到最多波動的地方。

And then the rest of the business our core. Historically, we've tended to maintain margins, right? As we communicated in 2022, we did very well on pricing. But most of the improvement did not come from price increase in terms of margin improvement. We increased price to maintain margin. And the improvements were about mix and other things that we were doing in our portfolio, growing some of the higher-end segments and those kinds of things.

至於其餘核心業務，歷史上我們傾向於維持利潤率，對吧？如我們在 2022 年所溝通的，我們在定價上做得很好。但就利潤率改善而言，多數提升並不是來自漲價。我們提價是為了維持利潤率；改善更多來自產品組合與我們在組合中做的其他事情，例如成長一些較高端的細分領域等。

So as we move forward, we would maintain that the model that we've had in the past where we are able to maintain margins, we'll see how costs and pricing moves through. And depending on the segment, some have much more differentiation, less price sensitivity, others will probably move more with margin over time.

因此往前看，我們會維持過去的模式，也就是我們有能力維持利潤率；接下來要看成本與價格如何傳導。並且依不同事業部而定，有些差異化更高、對價格敏感度更低；其他的則可能隨時間推移更偏向以利潤率方式調整。

The challenge that we have this year in the transition goes back to the inventory level. The pricing would have an immediate action and cost improvements will take a little bit more time to flow through because we have to work off the existing inventory that we have, which was purchased at a different cost level.

我們今年在轉換期面臨的挑戰回到庫存水位。價格調整會立即反映，但成本改善需要更長時間才能傳導，因為我們必須先消化現有庫存，而那些庫存是以不同的成本水準採購的。

Our next question comes from John Roberts with Mizuho.

下一個問題來自 Mizuho 的 John Roberts。

Many of your Personal Care applications are fragranced. It seems like destocking has been a lot less in the fragrance area. And I assume you watch this because I know you have some ingredients that actually go into fragrances. Is that correct? And why would your ingredients be seeing much more destocking than the fragrance market?

你們許多個人護理（Personal Care）應用都有加香。看起來香精（fragrance）領域的去庫存少很多。我猜你們也會關注這點，因為我知道你們有一些成分其實會用在香精裡。這是正確的嗎？那為什麼你們的成分會看到比香精市場更嚴重的去庫存？

Yes. So 2 separate things. I think most of the destocking -- for our fragrance business, the Avoca business I talked about. So that's a different dynamic.

是的。這是兩件不同的事。我認為大部分的去庫存——就我們的香精業務而言，是我提到的 Avoca 業務。所以那是不同的動態。

For most of the other areas, it's really more about the destocking and specific customer dynamics. As I said, some of the customers we're already seeing that our demand is trending back. We look at their volume sales, our sales to them are starting to align with that. Others are still having impact on sales in different parts of the world. So it varies by customer. And I would say it's improving, but there's still time for that destocking alignment to happen.

至於其他大多數領域，更多是去庫存以及特定客戶的動態。如我所說，我們已經看到部分客戶的需求趨勢回升；我們觀察他們的銷量，我們對他們的銷售開始與之對齊。其他客戶在世界不同地區仍對銷售造成影響。所以會因客戶而異。我會說情況在改善，但要完成去庫存對齊仍需要一些時間。

Specifically to fragrances, most of our businesses in fragrances is from our Avoca business. This is a business came from our Pharmachem. And as we've said in the past, that has not been performing well for a long time. We've stabilized and we improved it, but that's still an area that we need to take action on and pivot. These are implementation biotech assets. So our intention is to move and focus them on other areas.

具體到香精而言，我們在香精的業務大多來自 Avoca 業務。這項業務源自我們的 Pharmachem。正如我們過去所說，它長期以來表現不佳。我們已經穩定並改善了它，但那仍是我們需要採取行動並轉型的領域。這些是工業生物科技資產。因此我們的意圖是調整方向，並把它們聚焦到其他領域。

But clearly, the [Sterin I] business, which is the core part of it has been challenged. We lost business in 2019 when one of our customers developing, fermentation technology versus natural extraction technology, and that's been probably the biggest challenge for us.

但很明顯地，其中的核心部分 [Sterin I] 業務一直面臨挑戰。2019 年我們失去了一些業務，因為我們的一位客戶開發了發酵技術，取代天然萃取技術，而這大概是我們最大的挑戰。

So I would treat the Avoca different from everything else. The other parts are really more about the market dynamics.

所以我會把 Avoca 與其他所有業務分開看。其他部分主要是市場動態所致。

And then at the Investor Day, I think you had a couple of new chemistries, 1 targeting silicones, I think that was biodegradable and 0 VOC, and you had a new pH control buffer technology. When do you think you'll actually tell us what those chemistries are?

另外在投資人日（Investor Day），我記得你們展示了幾個新的化學技術：一個是針對矽靈（silicones），我想是可生物分解且 0 VOC；還有一個新的 pH 控制緩衝技術。你們預計什麼時候會實際告訴我們那些化學技術是什麼？

Well, we're starting to introduce. Officially, we just introduced the super wetter for starting in the coatings area. We're not taking it out to a lot of other markets.

嗯，我們正開始導入。正式來說，我們剛推出了「超級潤濕劑（super wetter）」，先從塗料（coatings）領域開始。我們還沒有把它推向很多其他市場。

I personally started to visit some of our major customers, meeting with their Chief Technology Officers, taking them through our technology portfolio. I'm not just trying to say here's a good product, you're really presenting the technology, what's the potential to see, engage interest, and how we can adopt these technologies to their specific needs. And I'm very excited that the response has been very positive. So obviously, early days. But so far, it's been very well received.

我個人開始拜訪我們的一些主要客戶，與他們的技術長（CTO）會面，並帶他們了解我們的技術產品組合。我不只是想說「這是一個好產品」，而是真正在呈現技術本身、可看到的潛力、如何引發興趣，以及我們如何把這些技術導入並貼合他們的特定需求。我很興奮的是，回應非常正面。所以很明顯，現在還在早期階段，但到目前為止，市場接受度非常好。

So the launches right now, I would say, first priority is the super wetter. We continue to launch and develop products on our modified vegetable oil. We are working with customers around our liquid cellulose injectables, as we said, is doing very well. And we're trying to accelerate some of the other projects, the buffer so that we can launch it in calendar year '24 and try to do it in the earlier part.

至於目前的產品推出，我會說第一優先是 super wetter。我們持續在改質植物油平台上推出並開發產品。我們也正與客戶合作推進我們的液態纖維素注入型產品，如同我們所說，表現非常好。同時我們也在嘗試加速其他一些專案，例如 buffer，讓我們能在 2024 年曆年推出，並盡量在較早的時間點完成上市。

But we're already engaging beta customers to start doing testing and working with them. So a lot of excitement there. And even, by the way, we're testing, and the customers like it. And so we present it by 1 different performance. What's exciting for us, that we're finding modifications that we can do so that it's not a 1 product launch. These are technologies. So we're launching Gen-1, but we expect to see multiple products coming out of some of these technologies.

不過我們已經在接觸 beta 客戶，開始進行測試並與他們合作。所以那裡有很多令人振奮的進展。順帶一提，我們正在測試，而客戶也喜歡它。因此我們以不同的性能表現來呈現。對我們來說令人興奮的是，我們發現可以做一些改良，使其不只是一次性的單一產品上市；這些是技術平台。因此我們會先推出第一代（Gen-1），但我們預期會有多個產品從其中一些技術平台衍生推出。

So very exciting developments, and that's why we're increasing our investment in these areas.

所以這些發展非常令人振奮，這也是我們為什麼要增加在這些領域的投資。

Our next question comes from Jeff Zekauskas with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通（JPMorgan）的 Jeff Zekauskas。

How do you calculate the inventory control penalty? Do you look at last year's level of production and compare it to this year's level of production? Is that the way you do it? Or is there some other way?

你們如何計算庫存控制的罰則？你們是看去年的生產水準並與今年的生產水準比較嗎？是這樣做嗎？還是有其他方式？

No. So for us, the question, is how we're controlling inventories...

不是。對我們而言，問題在於我們如何控制庫存……

How do you calculate it? How do you calculate it; where does that number come from?

你們怎麼計算？你們怎麼計算；那個數字是從哪裡來的？

Days of inventory. I mean, we look at our forecasts. And this is a very technical number in terms of, hey, we have these plants, how long does it take to ship to different locations around the world? We calculate shipping time, safety stock. So there's a number of factors that we put in. And we say, look, for this product, we should have x number of days of forward-looking demand in inventory.

庫存天數。我是說，我們會看我們的預測。這在技術上是一個非常精細的數字，因為我們有這些工廠，運送到全球不同地點需要多久？我們會計算運輸時間、安全庫存等。所以我們會把多個因素納入，然後說：你看，對於這個產品，我們應該在庫存中保有 x 天的前瞻需求量。

And that's the issue for us. So right now, we believe we're going to sell 100 units, we'll have, whatever, 20 units in inventory. If the demand comes down, or our forecast comes down, then we have too high inventory and we have to not produce as much. If demand outlook goes up, then we have too low of inventory and we have to produce up. So it's all about days of inventory or how we calculate the inventory levels that we have.

這就是我們的重點。所以現在我們認為會賣出 100 單位，那我們可能會有 20 單位庫存。若需求下滑，或我們的預測下修，那我們的庫存就過高，就必須減少生產。若需求展望上升，那我們庫存就過低，就必須提高生產。所以一切都圍繞在庫存天數，或我們如何計算我們應該持有的庫存水位。

If you look at during ['21], when things were short, what happened was many companies increased the days of inventory targets because of the longer supply chain. So that would add days. Well, before it took me 2 weeks to ship to Europe. Now it takes me a month. Therefore, I need another 15 days of inventory to count for that.

如果你回頭看在 [’21] 年期間，當時供應短缺，發生的是許多公司因為供應鏈變長而提高了庫存天數目標。這就會增加天數。以前我運到歐洲要 2 週，現在要 1 個月。因此，我需要再多 15 天的庫存來因應。

So it's all mathematical, and it's all about days, what's the should level based on days and safety stocks. And then ultimately, it's what's your forecast to calculate those days.

所以這完全是數學計算，核心就是天數：基於天數與安全庫存的「應有」水位。最後，則是用你的預測來計算那些天數。

So if I understand what you said, you have a hypothetical level of what you think the appropriate inventory is. And what you're doing is you're producing to get down to that number.

所以如果我理解你剛才說的，你們有一個假設的、你們認為適當的庫存水位。而你們正在做的是透過生產把庫存降到那個數字。

So have we reached that number of inventory days? Or are the inventory days that we're going to get to another level lower? And if they are another level lower, how much lower are they than where we are today?

那麼我們是否已經達到那個庫存天數？還是我們要達到的庫存天數會再降到另一個更低的水準？如果會更低，會比我們今天的水準低多少？

I think we're comfortable where our days are today. The issue now for us is that we need to produce to demand so that we don't build more inventory. This is what happened in the first of my comments around the first half of the year. If you look at the first quarter, we had x demand, we had production plans, we produced. And as demand started to come down, our days of inventory went up, right?

我認為我們對目前的庫存天數水位感到滿意。現在對我們而言的問題是，我們需要依需求來生產，避免再堆高庫存。這就是我一開始談到上半年時所發生的事。如果你看第一季，我們有 x 的需求，我們有生產計畫，我們也照計畫生產。當需求開始下滑時，我們的庫存天數就上升了，對吧？

So that's where in the second half, we have to reduce. But the average for the year was sort of normalized. As we move forward, if we assume we have the right number of days, and we don't want to increase the days of inventory based on demand, our production will be based on what the actual demand is going to be.

所以這就是為什麼在下半年我們必須減產。但全年平均來看算是某種程度的正常化。往前看，如果我們假設目前的庫存天數是正確的，而且我們不希望在需求變動下讓庫存天數增加，那麼我們的生產就會以實際需求會是多少為基礎。

Okay. And then lastly, how much will it cost to remove the $80 million in stranded costs? That is, what were the cash costs to remove different cost?

好的。最後一個問題，移除 8,000 萬美元的閒置成本（stranded costs）要花多少？也就是說，移除不同成本項目的現金成本是多少？

We'll share, like I said, we have a lot of stakeholders that we got to engage, and I think it would be premature and unfair to get into details before we've had the chance to really work through some of these issues. But there are going to be normal actions that we want to take. Some will take costs, some might be some investments that we need to move due to allow for some of these adjustments in where we make products and shifting things around. So there's multiple things, but we will share more details at the appropriate time.

我們會分享。如我所說，我們有很多利害關係人需要溝通，我認為在我們真正有機會把一些議題梳理清楚之前，就先談細節會過早，也不公平。但我們會採取一些常規的行動。有些會產生成本，有些可能需要一些投資，因為我們需要做調整，例如改變產品生產地點、重新配置與移轉等。所以有多個面向，但我們會在適當的時間分享更多細節。

And Jeff, just for a little perspective, we've done this a lot in the past. And while we're not ready to share number, we would expect it to be less than what we've seen in the past on some of the programs that we've done in terms of overall cash cost to do what we need to do.

Jeff，補充一點背景，我們過去做過很多次這類事情。雖然我們還沒準備好分享數字，但我們預期相較於過去某些專案，為了完成我們需要做的事，其整體現金成本會更低。

But like Guillermo said, we're not ready to get into details of that yet, but that would be our expectation.

但如 Guillermo 所說，我們現在還沒準備好深入談這些細節，不過那會是我們的預期。

Our next question comes from Mike Harrison with Seaport Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

I was wondering, Guillermo, if you could answer a couple of questions on Specialty Additives. First of all, during your comments, you suggested that the Specialty Additives business had kind of some parent plans or some shared assets that led that to be the most impacted by inventory control actions. So maybe just a little bit of additional color on what's going on there and why we saw the biggest impact from inventory control on Specialty Additives.

Guillermo，我想請你回答幾個關於 Specialty Additives 的問題。首先，在你的評論中，你提到 Specialty Additives 業務似乎有一些母體工廠（parent plants）或共享資產，導致它受到庫存控制行動的影響最大。能否再多補充一些背景，說明那裡發生了什麼，以及為什麼我們看到庫存控制對 Specialty Additives 的影響最大？

Yes. I mean if you look at the 2 businesses that we are taking actions on, CMC and MC Industrial, the assets are within the Specialty Additives business. So MC Industrial is mostly in Specialty Additives, the business and the assets. So that obviously has been a big impact. But the CMC business is in Specialty Additives, but it supplies both Life Science, so the nutrition business, which is way down, and also our Personal Care business that was impacted.

是的。我的意思是，如果你看我們正在採取行動的兩個業務：CMC 和 MC Industrial，相關資產都在 Specialty Additives 業務之內。所以 MC Industrial 大多在 Specialty Additives，無論是業務或資產。因此那當然帶來很大的影響。但 CMC 業務也在 Specialty Additives 之內，不過它同時供應 Life Science（也就是營養業務，現在下滑很大），以及我們受到影響的 Personal Care 業務。

So we don't see any value, we're not just moving allocations around and creating more noise but most of that is in Specialty Additives. And obviously, the Specialty Additives has all the big HEC volume, but they're the biggest volume driver of that, obviously, has been impacted by some of the destocking. But those are the 3 biggest drivers in terms of the plant.

所以我們看不到什麼價值去只是移動配額、製造更多雜訊；但大部分確實都在 Specialty Additives。很明顯地，Specialty Additives 擁有所有大量的 HEC 產量，而其中最大的量能驅動因素，顯然也受到一些去庫存（destocking）的影響。但就工廠端而言，這些是三個最大的驅動因素。

So it's a little bit disproportional, impact in Specialty Additives. But clearly, in MC Industrial and HEC, they are the biggest volume. CMC is much more distributed.

所以對 Specialty Additives 的影響有點不成比例。但很清楚，在 MC Industrial 和 HEC 上，它們是最大的量。CMC 的分布則更分散。

All right. And then...

好的。然後……

Mike, Specialty Additives is over half the volume of the core business. So you'd expect it to be a bigger number there. But then, they produce, as Guillermo said, volumes for other parts of the business. So that's what makes that number even bigger than it would have normally been.

Mike，Specialty Additives 佔核心業務量的一半以上，所以你會預期那裡的數字會更大。此外，它們也如 Guillermo 所說，為公司其他部分生產供應量。這使得那個數字比在一般情況下還要更大。

All right. That's helpful. And then my other question is just regarding what you're seeing in terms of destocking. It sounds like there are some markets where you're seeing destocking continue in other markets where you're maybe more confident that destocking has peaked and is maybe progressing toward an end.

好的，這很有幫助。那我另一個問題是關於你們在去庫存方面看到的情況。聽起來有些市場你們看到去庫存仍在持續；而在其他市場，你們可能更有信心去庫存已經見頂，並且可能正朝結束的方向推進。

Can you walk through your core markets and kind of differentiate which ones you're feeling better about? And which ones you expect the destocking to continue?

你能否帶我們走一遍你們的核心市場，並大致區分哪些市場你們感覺比較好？以及哪些市場你們預期去庫存還會持續？

Yes. I think coatings is one that we are expecting to see improvement. Customers volumes have normalized a little bit more. They do still have some inventory. And again, we have big customers and it's a more concentrated global industry.

是的。我認為塗料（coatings）是一個我們預期會看到改善的領域。客戶的出貨量已經更趨於正常化一些。他們仍然還有一些庫存。而且再說一次，我們有大型客戶，這是一個更集中化的全球產業。

So there, as individual customers align, you'll start seeing that impact. However, as you all know, the last 2 years, we haven't had seasonality because everything was short. But as we get back to seasonality, the coating season really starts in mid to end of Q2 fiscal year ['23] for us, so February and March. So we don't expect any major pickup it will be normalizing at a lower volume during the winter period but that one is clearly improving.

因此，隨著個別客戶逐步對齊，你會開始看到那個影響。不過，如各位所知，過去2年我們沒有季節性，因為所有東西都供應吃緊。但當我們回到季節性時，對我們而言，塗料季實際上在會計年度第2季中後段開始，也就是2月和3月。因此，我們不預期會有任何大幅回升；在冬季期間會在較低的量能下正常化，但那一塊顯然正在改善。

Nutrition was one of the - really nutrition in general, was one of the most impacted segments. We're starting to see some normalization. We should start picking up orders. In some of the areas, we haven't sold much at all for months given the high level of destocking. This is not a high-margin business for us but clearly has had a big impact on our absorption for us.

營養品是——其實整體營養品——受影響最嚴重的區隔之一。我們開始看到一些正常化。我們應該會開始接到更多訂單。在某些領域，由於去庫存程度很高，我們已經好幾個月幾乎沒有銷售。這對我們來說不是高毛利業務，但顯然對我們的產能吸收造成了很大影響。

The Personal Care spaces, I think we're starting to see normalization customer by customer. We have some, as I mentioned, that are already sort of ordering what we see in their sales. So in terms of reported numbers. So that's good news. But we have others, specific ones that have their own challenges that might take them a little bit more time to work through.

個人護理領域，我認為我們正開始逐一客戶看到正常化。如我提到的，我們有一些客戶已經在下單，訂單量大致反映我們看到的他們銷售情況，也就是反映在已揭露的數字上。這是好消息。但也有一些特定客戶有其自身挑戰，可能需要多一點時間才能消化。

And as I said, in the Intermediates is one that we expect a little bit more of a delay, especially around the EV, the timing of EV battery startups, that will be a bit later. We should see some improvement and normalization of demand in the year in the U.S. and Europe, but that's based on existing capacity. The new capacity really starts coming in towards the end of calendar year '24, and really more into '25. That whole chain has sort of developed, delayed by 6 to 12 months from what the original expectations were.

另外，如我所說，中間體我們預期會有更長一些的延遲，特別是與電動車（EV）相關、EV電池新產線啟動的時點，會更晚一些。我們應該會在今年於美國與歐洲看到需求的一些改善與正常化，但那是基於既有產能。新增產能真正開始進來是在2024曆年年底附近，且更多是在2025年。整個鏈條相較原先預期大約延後了6到12個月。

Our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的Michael Sison。

Michael, please rejoin using the call me feature.

Michael，請使用「call me」功能重新加入。

Our next question comes from Laurence Alexander with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自Jefferies的Laurence Alexander。

First of all, how much of a net headwind do you expect in 2024 from the restructuring initiatives? Would it be like $40 million, $50 million? Or is it going to be less than that? I mean, as an EBITDA headwind?

首先，對於2024年，重整措施預期會帶來多少淨逆風？會像4,000萬美元、5,000萬美元那樣嗎？還是會低於那個數字？我的意思是，以EBITDA的逆風來看？

Yes. I think the issue here is, again, we need to engage groups. So when we do things, if it impacts Europe, you got to works councils so we're not in a position really to talk about that.

是的。我想這裡的問題是，再次強調，我們需要與相關團體溝通。所以當我們採取行動時，如果影響到歐洲，就必須與工會／員工代表委員會（works councils）協商，因此我們目前其實不便談論這些。

I think that some of these things, when we decide or when we can take the actions, the offsets will be pretty quick on some of these areas. As I said, the biggest issue for us right now is that most of these things, specifically in CMC and MC, the margins are low. So minimizing the volatility is really the bigger priority in these areas but those benefits should be quicker.

我認為其中一些事項，當我們決定或當我們能夠採取行動時，在某些領域的抵銷效果會相當快。如我所說，我們目前最大的問題是，這些事項多數——特別是在CMC與MC——毛利率偏低。因此，在這些領域，降低波動性才是更優先的重點，但那些效益應該會更快顯現。

The HEC network will happen throughout the year because it really involves all our plans and how we redistribute and where we produce things. So that will be across the year but impact-wise, again, from my prior comment, most of the volume really starts in the back end of the year.

HEC網路會在全年逐步推進，因為它實際上牽涉到我們所有工廠以及我們如何重新分配、在哪裡生產各項產品。因此會貫穿全年；但就影響而言，如我先前所說，多數的量其實會在年底後段才開始。

Okay. Great. And then what's your kind of benchmarking now for the tax rate and interest expense that will flow through the P&L?

好的。很好。那你們目前對損益表（P&L）中將反映的稅率與利息費用，有什麼樣的基準假設？

The interest expense will be pretty much what it was in fiscal '23. We don't have any floating rate debt. So nothing is maturing for several years. So the cap structure on that side should be very consistent.

利息費用大致會與2023會計年度相同。我們沒有任何浮動利率債務，而且未來幾年也沒有到期的債務。因此在資本結構這一端應該會非常一致。

Tax rate is probably going to be, call it, low to mid-20s. Part of that's going to be driven by mix. And as you're aware, we have a Swiss principle organization that generally generates lower tax rates. So depending on the jurisdiction of the pretax income, and that will ultimately drive the tax rate. But generally, we would expect it to be kind of low to mid-20s.

稅率大概會在20%出頭到20%中段之間。部分會由組合（mix）所驅動。如你所知，我們有一個瑞士的主體架構（Swiss principle organization），通常會產生較低的稅率。因此，取決於稅前所得所在的司法管轄區，最終會驅動稅率。但整體而言，我們預期大概會落在20%出頭到20%中段。

Our next question comes from Michael Sison with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行（Wells Fargo）的Michael Sison。

Guys. Can you hear me?

各位，我聽得到嗎？

Yes, Mike.

聽得到，Mike。

Yes. Just one question. I wanted to understand the EBITDA margins for the first quarter a little bit. You're going to do about [$480 million] in sales. You did a little over [$500 million] in the first quarter of '23, similar first quarter '22, [460-ish] in first quarter '21, your EBITDA margins were all above 20%. So I mean, I sort of understand some of the issues, but at the same sales level, it doesn't seem to me that the margin should be so low. Are you comfortable there's not structural reasons why the margins are so low for the first quarter?

是的。只有一個問題。我想更了解一下第一季的EBITDA利潤率。你們的銷售額大約會是[4.8億美元]。你們在2023年第一季做了略高於[5億美元]，2022年第一季也差不多，2021年第一季約[4.6億左右]，而你們的EBITDA利潤率都高於20%。所以我的意思是，我大概理解一些問題，但在相同的銷售水準下，我覺得利潤率不應該這麼低。你們是否有把握，第一季利潤率這麼低不是因為結構性的原因？

I think 2 areas, and I'll let Kevin on. One is, as we said, it's the loading of production, volumes and carryover from prior year. And Intermediates, I would say, would be the other ones.

我想有兩個面向，我也讓Kevin補充。第一個是，如我們所說，這與生產裝載（loading）、產量以及前一年度的結轉有關。第二個我會說是中間體（Intermediates）。

But Kevin, if you want to comment in more detail?

Kevin，你要不要更詳細評論？

No, that's exactly right. Mike, historically, even though Q1 is seasonally weak, we would be producing in anticipation of the spring season. We are not doing that now. We are producing only what we believe demand is going to be for Q1. So that's the big difference. If you look at it year-over-year, there's probably a $25 million difference between last year, Q1, this year, Q1, just on the manufacturing loading piece of the equation.

不，完全正確。Mike，歷史上即使第一季季節性偏弱，我們也會為了春季旺季提前生產。但我們現在不這麼做了。我們只生產我們認為第一季會有的需求量。這就是最大的差異。如果你看年對年，光是在製造裝載這個因素上，去年第一季與今年第一季之間大概就有2,500萬美元的差異。

I mean, pricing is going to be pretty much flat in Q1 of this year based on our current estimates. So it's not a pricing issue. It is simply around producing to demand. And as Guillermo said, Intermediates is going to be meaningfully lower in Q1 of this year versus Q1 of last year. That will be the other big difference.

以我們目前的估計，今年第一季的定價大致會持平，所以不是定價問題。純粹是依需求生產。如Guillermo所說，今年第一季的中間體相較去年第一季會顯著更低，這會是另一個主要差異。

And that's an important point, Mike, in the sense of traditionally, everybody sort of generalizes that sales volume equals volume for everything, right? And as Kevin said, that's not necessarily true. Production volume doesn't align necessarily with sales volume. It's about inventories and how we build capacity, peak demands and managing all that. If we're producing to demand, we're taking a much more conservative position. So as demand picks up, the leverage is very big because it's not just going to sell more, we ramp our plants much more. So that's why the uncertainty and our discomfort for taking a guess of what's going to happen in the second half of the year at this point in time, the variability would be very big.

而且這點很重要，Mike，因為傳統上大家往往會概括地認為銷售量就等於所有事情的量，對吧？但如Kevin所說，未必如此。生產量不一定會與銷售量對齊；它取決於庫存，以及我們如何建立產能、因應尖峰需求並管理這一切。如果我們依需求生產，我們採取的是更保守的立場。因此當需求回升時，槓桿效應會非常大，因為不只是賣得更多，我們也會把工廠的開工率拉升得更多。這也是為什麼在此時此刻，我們對於要去猜測下半年會發生什麼感到不確定、也不太舒服，因為變動幅度會非常大。

So I think the issue now is understand these dynamics, the scenarios that we've built and make sure that we're taking the actions that improve our performance across the scenarios. So if things remain slower for longer, we will produce, we will have more controlled operations. We don't have to cut inventories anymore.

所以我認為現在的重點是理解這些動態、我們建立的各種情境，並確保我們採取的行動能在各種情境下提升表現。如果情況維持較慢更久，我們會依需求生產，營運會更可控。我們也不需要再削減庫存。

If things pick up, the ramp rates would be significant. We have a lot of upside. So the actions we're taking will minimize downside and maximize upside potential for us as we move forward.

如果情況回升，拉升（ramp）速度會很顯著。我們有很大的上行空間。因此，我們正在採取的行動將在我們往前走的過程中，降低下行風險並最大化上行潛力。

(Operator Instructions) I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the call back to Guillermo Novo for closing remarks.

（接線員指示）目前顯示沒有其他提問。我想把電話交回給Guillermo Novo做結語。

Well, thank you very much, everyone, for your participation and questions. We look forward to engaging you throughout the quarter. And appreciate all the attention and interest in Ashland. And Abigail, thank you for all your help.

非常感謝各位的參與與提問。我們期待在本季持續與各位交流。也感謝大家對Ashland的關注與興趣。Abigail，也謝謝你所有的協助。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位參與今天的電話會議。本次會議到此結束。您現在可以掛線。