Ashland Inc (ASH) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Ashland Inc. First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加亞甚蘭公司 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. And I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Mr. Seth Mrozek, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給您今天的發言人，投資者關係總監 Seth Mrozek 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Chris. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Ashland's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Seth Mrozek, Director, Ashland Investor Relations.

謝謝你，克里斯。大家好，歡迎收看亞甚蘭 2023 財年第一季度收益電話會議和網絡直播。我叫亞甚蘭投資者關係總監 Seth Mrozek。

Joining me on the call today are Guillermo Novo, Ashland's Chair and Chief Executive Officer; and Kevin Willis, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We released preliminary results for the quarter ended December 31, 2022, at approximately 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time yesterday, January 31. The news release issued last night was furnished to the SEC in a Form 8-K. During today's call, we will reference slides that are currently being webcast on our website, ashland.com, under the Investor Relations section. We encourage you to follow along with the webcast during the call.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的有亞甚蘭董事長兼首席執行官 Guillermo Novo；高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Kevin Willis。我們在美國東部時間下午 5:00 左右發布了截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的季度的初步結果。東部時間昨天，1 月 31 日。昨晚發布的新聞稿以 8-K 表格形式提交給美國證券交易委員會。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考目前在我們網站 ashland.com 的“投資者關係”部分下進行網絡廣播的幻燈片。我們鼓勵您在通話期間關注網絡廣播。

Please turn to Slide 2. As a reminder, during today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements on several matters, including our outlook for fiscal year 2023. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause future results or events to differ materially from today's projections. We believe any such statements are based on reasonable assumptions, but cannot assure that such expectations will be achieved. Please refer to Slide 2 of the presentation for an explanation of those risks and uncertainties and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements. You can also review our most recent Form 10-K under Item 1A for a comprehensive discussion of the risk factors impacting our business.

請轉到幻燈片 2。提醒一下，在今天的電話會議中，我們將就若干事項做出前瞻性陳述，包括我們對 2023 財年的展望。這些前瞻性陳述受到可能導致未來結果的風險和不確定性的影響或與今天的預測有重大差異的事件。我們認為任何此類陳述均基於合理的假設，但無法保證此類預期一定會實現。有關這些風險和不確定性的解釋以及適用於前瞻性陳述的限制，請參閱演示文稿的幻燈片 2。您還可以在項目 1A 下查看我們最新的 10-K 表格，以全面討論影響我們業務的風險因素。

Please also note that we will be referring to certain actual and projected financial metrics of Ashland on an adjusted basis, which are non-GAAP financial measures. We will refer to those measures as adjusted and present them to supplement your understanding and assessment of the financial performance of our ongoing business. Non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for or superior to financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. The most directly comparable GAAP measures as well as reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures to those GAAP measures are available on our website and in the appendix of today's slide presentation.

另請注意，我們將在調整後的基礎上參考亞甚蘭的某些實際和預計財務指標，這些指標是非 GAAP 財務指標。我們將參考這些調整後的措施並提出它們以補充您對我們正在進行的業務的財務業績的理解和評估。非 GAAP 指標不應被視為替代或優於根據 GAAP 計算的財務指標。最直接可比的 GAAP 措施以及非 GAAP 措施與這些 GAAP 措施的調節可在我們的網站和今天幻燈片演示的附錄中找到。

Please turn to Slide 3. Guillermo will begin the call this morning with an overview of Ashland's performance and results in the fiscal first quarter. Next, Kevin will provide a more detailed review of financial results for the quarter. Guillermo will then provide additional commentary related to Ashland's financial outlook for fiscal year 2023. We will then open the line for your questions.

請轉到幻燈片 3。Guillermo 將在今天上午開始電話會議，概述亞甚蘭第一財季的業績和結果。接下來，凱文將對本季度的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。 Guillermo 隨後將提供有關亞甚蘭 2023 財年財務展望的更多評論。然後我們將開通您的問題熱線。

Now please turn to Slide 5, and I'd like to turn the call over to Guillermo for his opening comments. Guillermo?

現在請轉到幻燈片 5，我想將電話轉給 Guillermo，聽取他的開場白。吉列爾莫？

Thank you, Seth, and hello, everyone. Thank you for your interest in Ashland and for your participation today. As stated in our earnings release last night, Ashland's results in the fiscal first quarter were consistent with the earnings update we issued last week. During these times of continued global uncertainty, we will strive to provide transparency and timely communication on company results and performance. As we plan for the December quarter, we recognized that several external dynamics could impact demand and performance. The impact of Central Bank actions to combat inflation, the war in Ukraine and the China -- and the COVID reopening in China. Our forecast was based on a more recessionary environment developing and did not include factors that we could not control or forecast. The drivers of our results for the fiscal first quarter are a great example of how uncertain events significantly impact market dynamics in a very short period of time. I'd like to spend a few minutes providing my perspective on the overall results.

謝謝你，賽斯，大家好。感謝您對亞甚蘭的關注和今天的參與。正如我們昨晚發布的收益報告所述，亞甚蘭第一財季的業績與我們上週發布的收益更新一致。在這些全球持續不確定的時期，我們將努力就公司業績和績效提供透明度和及時溝通。在我們為 12 月季度製定計劃時，我們認識到一些外部動態可能會影響需求和績效。中央銀行打擊通貨膨脹、烏克蘭和中國的戰爭以及 COVID 在中國重新開放的行動的影響。我們的預測基於更加衰退的環境發展，不包括我們無法控製或預測的因素。我們第一財季業績的驅動因素很好地說明了不確定事件如何在很短的時間內對市場動態產生重大影響。我想花幾分鐘時間談談我對整體結果的看法。

First, disciplined pricing led to price-versus-inflation cost tailwinds in the quarter as we had expected. Our commercial teams moved quickly last year to recover the increased costs we experienced in energy, freight, logistics, raw materials and other input costs. They continued with this discipline in this quarter. On a constant current basis, that pricing carryover and additional new pricing resulted in double-digit percentage price improvements for all segments compared to Q1 of last year. In addition, our 3 consumer-focused segments, Life Science, Personal Care and Specialty Additives realized strong mix improvements, which supported the company's overall margins.

首先，正如我們預期的那樣，嚴格的定價導致本季度價格與通脹成本的順風。去年，我們的商業團隊迅速採取行動，收回了我們在能源、貨運、物流、原材料和其他投入成本方面增加的成本。他們在本季度繼續遵守這一紀律。在當前不變的基礎上，與去年第一季度相比，該定價結轉和額外的新定價導致所有細分市場的價格都有兩位數的百分比提高。此外，我們的 3 個以消費者為中心的細分市場，即生命科學、個人護理和特種添加劑實現了強勁的組合改善，支持了公司的整體利潤率。

Second, the results in Life Science segment was particularly strong. The team saw strong global demand in our leading pharmaceutical ingredients and was able to capture additional market share at leading pharma customers. As you saw in the video at the beginning of today's call, Ashland continues to expand its leadership position in some of the world's most important pharmaceutical applications. And third, Ashland serves resilient end markets and geographies across the globe. The U.S. consumer and -- our U.S. customers continued to demonstrate resilience in demand in the face of global economic uncertainty. Many emerging markets also demonstrated growth. The historic long-term resilience of the end markets we serve gives us confidence in our financial outlook for this year and beyond.

其次，生命科學領域的業績尤為強勁。該團隊看到全球對我們領先的藥物成分的強勁需求，並能夠在領先的製藥客戶那裡獲得更多的市場份額。正如您在今天電話會議開頭的視頻中看到的那樣，亞甚蘭繼續擴大其在世界上一些最重要的製藥應用領域的領導地位。第三，亞甚蘭服務於全球具有彈性的終端市場和地區。面對全球經濟的不確定性，美國消費者和我們的美國客戶繼續表現出需求的彈性。許多新興市場也表現出增長。我們所服務的終端市場歷史性的長期彈性讓我們對今年及以後的財務前景充滿信心。

In contrast, we also experienced several headwinds during the quarter that yielded overall results that were below our original expectations. First, global macro factors certainly impacted demand in China and Europe during the quarter. The changes in government COVID policies and the resulting acceleration of infection rates clearly impacted demand as well as business and living activities for everyone in China. The speed and impact of these developments was much greater than anyone expected. As a result, sales in China were significantly below our expectations. And although we expected some level of economic downturn in Europe, driven by both recessionary trends and general uncertainty on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, demand in Europe was below our expectations.

相比之下，我們在本季度也經歷了幾次逆風，導致整體業績低於我們最初的預期。首先，全球宏觀因素肯定會影響本季度中國和歐洲的需求。政府 COVID 政策的變化以及由此導致的感染率加速明顯影響了中國每個人的需求以及商業和生活活動。這些發展的速度和影響遠遠超過任何人的預期。因此，中國的銷售額大大低於我們的預期。儘管我們預計受經濟衰退趨勢和俄烏戰爭影響的普遍不確定性的推動，歐洲經濟會出現一定程度的下滑，但歐洲的需求低於我們的預期。

Second, inventory management and destocking primarily by distributors in Europe and China was real, and it happened quickly. While sales distributors only represent about 20% of Ashland's overall sales, distributor inventory destocking actions were a significant driver and roughly 50% of our revenue gap versus prior year. The vast majority of this was in China and Europe. We also saw certain customers take similar inventory management actions. So these were isolated and we believe very company-specific with no specific market patterns. The weaker demand in China and Europe as well as the destocking impacted mostly Specialty Additives and Personal Care -- and our Personal Care business. It is important to note that while Ashland's overall margins remained in line with prior year, margins in our Specialty Additives segment were impacted by planned turnarounds, both planned and unplanned during the quarter. We are thankful that our team in China is healthy and are grateful for the resilience they demonstrated following the outbreak of COVID in December. And while the U.S. freeze did impact operations at several plants during December and January, the financial impact will mostly come through in the second quarter. Our teams are working on actions to offset the impact of the unplanned shutdowns and the freeze, including plans to rationalize some of our planned maintenance work company-wide in the third and fourth quarters.

其次，主要由歐洲和中國的分銷商進行庫存管理和去庫存是真實的，而且發生得很快。雖然銷售分銷商僅佔亞甚蘭總銷售額的 20% 左右，但分銷商庫存去庫存行動是一個重要的推動因素，約占我們與上一年收入差距的 50%。其中絕大部分發生在中國和歐洲。我們還看到某些客戶採取了類似的庫存管理措施。所以這些是孤立的，我們認為非常針對公司，沒有特定的市場模式。中國和歐洲的需求疲軟以及去庫存主要影響了特種添加劑和個人護理——以及我們的個人護理業務。值得注意的是，雖然亞甚蘭的整體利潤率與上一年持平，但我們特種添加劑部門的利潤率受到本季度計劃內和計劃外扭虧為盈的影響。我們感謝我們在中國的團隊身體健康，並感謝他們在 12 月 COVID 爆發後表現出的韌性。雖然美國凍結在 12 月和 1 月期間確實影響了幾家工廠的運營，但財務影響主要會在第二季度體現出來。我們的團隊正在採取行動來抵消計劃外停機和凍結的影響，包括計劃在第三和第四季度在全公司範圍內合理化我們計劃的一些維護工作。

I will discuss a bit more -- I will discuss this a bit more when we review our outlook for fiscal 2023 later in the call. However, all indications lead us to believe that the China reopening will have a positive impact on demand, but the pace and breadth of the reopening should be an important factor in our financial outlook for the remainder of the year.

我會多討論一點——當我們在電話會議稍後回顧我們對 2023 財年的展望時，我會多討論這個問題。然而，所有跡像都讓我們相信，中國重新開放將對需求產生積極影響，但重新開放的速度和廣度應該是我們今年剩餘時間財務前景的重要因素。

Finally, foreign exchange rates again had a negative impact on Ashland's overall results. The impact of the strong dollar continues to be realized on our business overseas, though current exchange rates are improving when compared to our original forecast from at the beginning of the year.

最後，匯率再次對亞甚蘭的整體業績產生負面影響。強勢美元的影響繼續對我們的海外業務產生影響，儘管與我們年初的最初預測相比，當前匯率正在改善。

Please turn to Slide 6. Before I ask Kevin to discuss our quarterly results in more detail, I would like to sum up the key takeaways. Despite global uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility, Ashland delivered consistent results in the quarter. Sales growth, EBITDA growth, EPS growth were delivered along with nearly flat EBITDA margins compared to prior year. While there were many puts and takes, delivering consistent results is an important component of our long-term strategy.

請轉到幻燈片 6。在我請凱文更詳細地討論我們的季度業績之前，我想總結一下要點。儘管全球存在不確定性和宏觀經濟波動，但亞甚蘭在本季度取得了一致的業績。銷售額增長、EBITDA 增長、EPS 增長以及 EBITDA 利潤率與上一年相比幾乎持平。雖然有很多投入和投入，但提供一致的結果是我們長期戰略的重要組成部分。

Please turn to Slide 7. As you can see in the chart on the left, year-over-year sales growth in Life Science was very strong. While the top line for Personal Care and Specialty Additives was below prior year due to the factors referenced earlier. Overall margins for Ashland remain healthy and generally in line with our expectations. While there are many global uncertainties in the horizon, the Ashland team is performing well and executing on the actions that are within our control. I look forward to discussing the outlook for fiscal year '23 and reviewing broader progress by the company later in the call. In the meantime, I'll turn over the call to Kevin to review Q1 results in more detail. Kevin?

請轉到幻燈片 7。如左圖所示，生命科學領域的銷售額同比增長非常強勁。由於前面提到的因素，個人護理和特種添加劑的收入低於去年同期。亞甚蘭的整體利潤率保持健康，總體上符合我們的預期。儘管未來存在許多全球不確定性，但亞甚蘭團隊表現良好，並執行我們控制範圍內的行動。我期待在電話會議後期討論公司 23 財年的前景並回顧更廣泛的進展。與此同時，我將把電話轉給凱文，以更詳細地審查第一季度的結果。凱文？

Thank you, Guillermo, and good morning, everyone. Please turn to Slide 9. Total Ashland sales in the quarter were $525 million, up 3% versus prior year, driven by continued inflation recovery and mix improvements. Sales increased by 7% on a constant currency basis. Gross margin remained consistent at 31.4% as cost recovery and mix improvement actions by the commercial teams offset increased input costs and the turnaround expense at a number of our global facilities, which Guillermo previously discussed. When excluding key items, SG&A, R&D and intangible amortization costs of $116 million were essentially flat compared to the prior year. In total, Ashland's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $108 million, up 2% from the prior year adjusted EBITDA of $106 million.

謝謝你，Guillermo，大家早上好。請轉到幻燈片 9。亞甚蘭本季度的總銷售額為 5.25 億美元，比去年同期增長 3%，這主要得益於持續的通脹復甦和產品組合改善。按固定匯率計算，銷售額增長了 7%。毛利率保持在 31.4%，因為商業團隊的成本回收和組合改進行動抵消了我們許多全球設施的增加的投入成本和周轉費用，Guillermo 之前曾討論過這一點。排除關鍵項目後，SG&A、R&D 和無形攤銷成本為 1.16 億美元，與上一年基本持平。總體而言，亞甚蘭本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.08 億美元，比上年調整後的 EBITDA 1.06 億美元增長 2%。

It's important to note that unfavorable foreign currency negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA by $14 million, while the planned facility turnarounds resulted in $12 million of incremental cost during the quarter. Ashland's adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter was 20.6% and consistent with the prior year. Adjusted EPS, excluding acquisition and amortization for the quarter, was $0.97 per share, up 10% from the prior year quarter. Ongoing free cash flow was a negative $21 million for the quarter, a reduction from the prior year, primarily reflecting an increase in working capital driven by increased inventory balances globally.

值得注意的是，不利的外幣對調整後的 EBITDA 產生了 1400 萬美元的負面影響，而計劃中的設施周轉導致本季度增加了 1200 萬美元的成本。亞甚蘭本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.6%，與上年持平。調整後的每股收益（不包括收購和攤銷）為每股 0.97 美元，比去年同期增長 10%。本季度持續自由現金流為負 2100 萬美元，較上年有所減少，這主要反映了全球庫存餘額增加推動營運資本增加。

Now let's review the results of each of our 4 operating segments. Please turn to Slide 10. As Guillermo referenced at the beginning of today's call, Life Sciences delivered very strong results in the quarter, driven by our global pharmaceutical ingredients business. Pharma demand remained strong, product mix was favorable, the team executed on disciplined cost recovery, all contributing to margin expansion. Unfavorable currency impact was a partial offset to the strong performance in Life Sciences. In total, Life Sciences sales increased by 22% to $207 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 44% to $52 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased meaningfully to more than 25%.

現在讓我們回顧一下我們 4 個運營部門中每個部門的結果。請轉到幻燈片 10。正如 Guillermo 在今天電話會議開始時提到的那樣，生命科學在我們的全球製藥成分業務的推動下，在本季度取得了非常強勁的業績。醫藥需求依然強勁，產品組合有利，團隊執行嚴格的成本回收，所有這些都有助於擴大利潤率。不利的貨幣影響部分抵消了生命科學領域的強勁表現。總的來說，生命科學的銷售額增長了 22% 至 2.07 億美元，而調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 44% 至 5200 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率顯著增加至 25% 以上。

Please turn to Slide 11. Personal Care sales were down by double-digit percentage in China due to COVID policies. Inventory destocking by distributors, particularly in Europe, also negatively impacted sales. As with Life Sciences, the team continued to realize disciplined cost recovery through pricing and favorable product mix. For the quarter, Personal Care sales declined by 6% to $138 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined 11% to $32 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin also declined to roughly 23%. Unfavorable currency impact was also a headwind to Personal Care results in the quarter.

請轉到幻燈片 11。由於 COVID 政策，中國的個人護理產品銷售額下降了兩位數百分比。分銷商（尤其是歐洲）的庫存去庫存也對銷售產生了負面影響。與生命科學一樣，該團隊繼續通過定價和有利的產品組合實現嚴格的成本回收。本季度，個人護理銷售額下降 6% 至 1.38 億美元，而調整後的 EBITDA 下降 11% 至 3200 萬美元。調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也下降至約 23%。不利的貨幣影響也阻礙了本季度個人護理業務的業績。

Please turn to Slide 12. Specialty Additives also felt the impact of reduced demand primarily related to inventory destocking among distributors and certain customers in China and Europe. Sales outside of these 2 important regions were up by mid-single digits versus the prior year quarter. The reduced demand more than offset improved cost recovery and mix for the segment, particularly within the architectural coatings end market. For the quarter, Specialty Additives sales declined by 8% to $143 million, while adjusted EBITDA declined by 39% to $23 million. The cost impact from both planned and unplanned facility shutdowns was about $7 million and represented nearly half of the year-over-year decline in EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA margin also declined to 16% for the quarter.

請轉到幻燈片 12。特種添加劑也受到需求減少的影響，這主要與中國和歐洲的分銷商和某些客戶的庫存去庫存有關。這兩個重要地區以外的銷售額與去年同期相比增長了中個位數。需求的減少抵消了該領域成本回收和組合的改善，尤其是在建築塗料終端市場。本季度，特種添加劑銷售額下降 8% 至 1.43 億美元，而調整後的 EBITDA 下降 39% 至 2300 萬美元。計劃內和計劃外設施關閉造成的成本影響約為 700 萬美元，佔 EBITDA 同比下降的近一半。本季度調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率也下降至 16%。

Please turn to Slide 13. Intermediates reported sales were $54 million, up 2% compared to the prior year driven by higher merchant market pricing and improved product mix management of higher-value derivatives. Intermediates reported adjusted EBITDA of $23 million, an increase of 21% compared to prior year and adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 42.6%.

請轉到幻燈片 13。中間體報告的銷售額為 5400 萬美元，比上年增長 2%，這是由於更高的商業市場定價和更高價值衍生品的產品組合管理得到改善。中間體報告調整後的 EBITDA 為 2300 萬美元，比上年增長 21%，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高到 42.6%。

Please turn to Slide 14. As we discussed at our last Investor Day, capital allocation discipline continues to be an important component of Ashland's value-creation strategy. The actions we have taken over the past year have improved Ashland's financial position and provide for increased flexibility. Last night, we announced plans to execute a new $100 million share repurchase program under Rule 10b5-1. This program will be executed under the existing $500 million evergreen share repurchase authorization that was approved by Ashland's Board of Directors last year. We expect to begin executing trades under the new program in early February. With the strength of our balance sheet, our growth outlook for the year and the fact that we continue to believe that Ashland shares remain significantly undervalued, now is the right time to begin a new open market purchase program. As of the quarter closed on December 31, we had cash on hand of more than $530 million with total available liquidity of roughly $1.2 billion. Our net debt stands at $784 million, which is about 1.3 turns of leverage. We have no floating rate debt outstanding, no long-term debt maturities for the next 4 years and all of our outstanding debt is subject to investment-grade style credit terms. We are investing in our existing business to grow organically and continue to pursue our strategy of enhanced profitable growth through targeted bolt-on M&A opportunities focused on pharma, personal care and coatings. Against the backdrop of global uncertainty, Ashland has a strong balance sheet with the flexibility to pursue our targeted growth strategy.

請轉到幻燈片 14。正如我們在上次投資者日討論的那樣，資本配置紀律仍然是亞甚蘭價值創造戰略的重要組成部分。我們在過去一年採取的行動改善了亞甚蘭的財務狀況並提供了更大的靈活性。昨晚，我們宣布計劃根據規則 10b5-1 執行一項新的 1 億美元股票回購計劃。該計劃將根據亞甚蘭董事會去年批准的現有 5 億美元常青股份回購授權執行。我們預計將在 2 月初根據新計劃開始執行交易。憑藉我們強勁的資產負債表、我們今年的增長前景以及我們仍然認為亞甚蘭股票仍被嚴重低估的事實，現在是開始新的公開市場購買計劃的合適時機。截至 12 月 31 日結束的季度，我們手頭現金超過 5.3 億美元，可用流動資金總額約為 12 億美元。我們的淨債務為 7.84 億美元，約為 1.3 倍的槓桿率。我們沒有未償還的浮動利率債務，也沒有未來 4 年到期的長期債務，我們所有的未償還債務都受投資級信用條款的約束。我們正在投資於我們現有的業務以實現有機增長，並通過專注於製藥、個人護理和塗料的有針對性的補強併購機會繼續推行我們的戰略來提高盈利增長。在全球不確定性的背景下，亞甚蘭擁有強大的資產負債表，可以靈活地實施我們的目標增長戰略。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Guillermo to discuss our outlook for fiscal year '23. Guillermo?

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給吉列爾莫，討論我們對 23 財年的展望。吉列爾莫？

Thank you, Kevin. Please turn to Slide 16. I'd like to take a few minutes to provide some perspective on the current fiscal second quarter and the second half of our fiscal year outlook. For the second quarter, first, regarding demand. Our global pharma business continues to demonstrate strong resilience in our order book for Personal Care ingredients and Architectural Coatings Additives is rebounding so far this quarter. Although most of the regions are experiencing demand strengthening, demand in China remained weak in January. We expect to see the demand pickup following the Chinese New Year. Additionally, during January, we began to see the regional destocking dynamic stabilizing, notably in Europe. While volume demand levels have not returned to prior year levels, the sequential improvement has been meaningful. As we exit January, our sales and open orders were slightly above prior year with price up and volume down. Relative to prior months, both volume and revenue were significantly up even with a weak demand in China.

謝謝你，凱文。請轉到幻燈片 16。我想花幾分鐘時間介紹一下當前第二財季和下半財年展望的一些觀點。對於第二季度，首先是關於需求。我們的全球製藥業務在個人護理成分和建築塗料添加劑的訂單中繼續表現出強大的彈性，本季度到目前為止正在反彈。儘管大部分地區的需求都在增強，但 1 月份中國的需求仍然疲軟。我們預計農曆新年過後需求會回升。此外，在 1 月份，我們開始看到區域去庫存動態趨於穩定，尤其是在歐洲。雖然銷量需求水平尚未恢復到上一年的水平，但環比改善是有意義的。當我們離開 1 月時，我們的銷售額和未結訂單略高於去年同期，價格上漲但數量下降。與前幾個月相比，即使在中國需求疲軟的情況下，銷量和收入也顯著增長。

Second, as previously communicated, the winter storm that impacted much of the U.S. in December and had significant impact in our facility in Calvert City, Kentucky as well as several other facilities in the U.S., fortunately, Calvert City and other locations have been back online and fully operational for most of January. While the storm did not have a meaningful impact on results in Q1, we expect to recognize approximately $15 million of incremental cost in the March quarter. These costs will most directly impact results in Life Science and Personal Care segments of the business. However, we expect the timing of the offset actions will be mostly impacting our third and fourth quarter.

其次，如前所述，冬季風暴在 12 月影響了美國大部分地區，並對我們位於肯塔基州卡爾弗特市的設施以及美國其他幾個設施產生了重大影響，幸運的是，卡爾弗特市和其他地點已經恢復在線並在 1 月的大部分時間全面運作。雖然風暴並未對第一季度的業績產生重大影響，但我們預計將在 3 月季度確認約 1500 萬美元的增量成本。這些成本將最直接地影響業務的生命科學和個人護理部門的結果。但是，我們預計抵消行動的時間安排將主要影響我們的第三和第四季度。

And finally, for the next few months, there continues to be an elevated level of uncertain globally. What happens over the next 2 months from China's reopening to geopolitical and economic developments in Europe to Central Bank actions across the globe will have important implications for the global economy and Ashland results. All these factors could further influence our modeling and outlook for the remainder of fiscal year '23.

最後，在接下來的幾個月裡，全球範圍內的不確定性將繼續上升。未來兩個月，從中國重新開放到歐洲的地緣政治和經濟發展，再到全球央行的行動，將會對全球經濟和亞甚蘭業績產生重要影響。所有這些因素都可能進一步影響我們對 23 財年剩餘時間的建模和展望。

As we move into March, we expect to have increased visibility into many of these factors and the actions that our customers are taking heading into the second half of the year. For the second half of 2023, as we look at the back half of our fiscal year, some of the key issues that we look at are the expected magnitude and impact of the recessionary momentum. Will there be more recent impacts as we move from a high demand and tight supply to a more recessionary environment, and the uncertainty around the impact of China's COVID reopening and potential changes in the Russia-Ukraine war dynamics?

隨著我們進入 3 月，我們希望能夠更加清楚地了解其中的許多因素以及我們的客戶在進入下半年時所採取的行動。對於 2023 年下半年，當我們回顧本財年的後半部分時，我們關注的一些關鍵問題是衰退勢頭的預期規模和影響。隨著我們從高需求和供應緊張轉向更加衰退的環境，以及圍繞中國 COVID 重新開放的影響和俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭動態的潛在變化的不確定性，最近是否會產生更多影響？

With regards to the recessionary environment, in the absence of new data, we believe that the markets our business serve will continue to perform in line with their historic resilience. Our question is more about the recent developments as we move from the 2022 tight supply-demand dynamics into a more recessionary 2023 environment. This reset driven by China's COVID reopening and destocking clearly impacted demand in the first quarter, but should be transitory. Note that several of our key technologies' capacity for the industry and Ashland remain tight, with operating rates above 90%. While I'm not ready to say that destocking is over, trends in January show significant improvement. Unless there are new developments, we expect them to fade off by the end of the second quarter.

關於經濟衰退的環境，在沒有新數據的情況下，我們相信我們的業務所服務的市場將繼續按照其歷史彈性表現。隨著我們從 2022 年緊張的供需動態轉向更加衰退的 2023 年環境，我們的問題更多地是關於最近的事態發展。由中國 COVID 重新開放和去庫存推動的這種重置明顯影響了第一季度的需求，但應該是暫時的。請注意，我們的幾個關鍵技術對行業和亞甚蘭的產能仍然很緊張，開工率在90%以上。雖然我還沒準備好說去庫存已經結束，但 1 月份的趨勢顯示出顯著改善。除非有新的發展，否則我們預計它們將在第二季度末消失。

The impact of China's reopening or changes in the Russia-Ukraine war dynamic is more difficult to forecast, given the lack of clarity on how they will develop. For China's COVID reopening, we do expect improved demand developments in China. What broader impacts could develop will depend on the pace and the magnitude of the reopening. This uncertain environment -- in this uncertain environment, we will continue to focus on what we can control while planning and building resilience to react quickly to developments, similar to what we did in 2022.

中國重新開放的影響或俄烏戰爭動態的變化更難預測，因為它們將如何發展尚不明確。對於中國的 COVID 重新開放，我們確實預計中國的需求發展會有所改善。可能產生何種更廣泛的影響將取決於重新開放的速度和規模。這種不確定的環境——在這種不確定的環境中，我們將繼續關注我們可以控制的事情，同時規劃和建立彈性以對發展做出快速反應，就像我們在 2022 年所做的那樣。

Notwithstanding our current outlook, as we did during the certain types of -- times of COVID, we will continue to look at a more conservative outlook for our internal assumptions that will drive our actions and plans. Our priorities will be on. While we do not ultimately control demand, we will remain nimble to react to positive or negative developments, and we'll continue to focus on innovation and share gain activities to support growth. We will maintain focus on disciplined pricing, mix and cost management to support -- to sustain margins. We demonstrated this ability in a very challenging inflationary environment in fiscal '22, and we will maintain this discipline in fiscal '23 and beyond. We will drive actions to offset incremental costs from unplanned shutdowns and the freeze. We will monitor market developments and take appropriate actions to maintain inventories in line with developing supply-demand dynamics.

儘管我們目前的展望與我們在某些類型的 COVID 時代所做的一樣，但我們將繼續以更保守的觀點看待我們的內部假設，這些假設將推動我們的行動和計劃。我們的優先事項將繼續。雖然我們無法最終控制需求，但我們仍將對積極或消極的發展做出靈活反應，我們將繼續專注於創新和分享收益活動以支持增長。我們將繼續關注有紀律的定價、組合和成本管理，以支持——維持利潤率。我們在 22 財年極具挑戰性的通脹環境中展示了這種能力，我們將在 23 財年及以後保持這一紀律。我們將採取行動抵消計劃外停工和凍結造成的增量成本。我們將監測市場發展並採取適當行動，根據不斷發展的供需動態維持庫存。

Please turn to Slide 17. Consistent with our earnings update from last week, we are maintaining our financial guidance range for sales and adjusted EBITDA margin for the fiscal year '23. As indicated, our current models put our EBITDA outlook below the midpoint of our range. We expect to have better visibility on the impact of China's reopening post-winter Europe and Central Bank actions to combat inflation at the end of the second quarter. Critical deliverables in our models are clear, to sustain price margin management discipline, to offset the unplanned shutdowns and freeze impact in Q3 and Q4 and to continue to invest in our innovation pipeline and capacity to drive growth.

請轉到幻燈片 17。與我們上週的收益更新一致，我們維持 23 財年的銷售財務指導範圍和調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率。如前所述，我們當前的模型使我們的 EBITDA 前景低於我們範圍的中點。我們預計將在第二季度末更好地了解中國重啟冬季後歐洲和央行抗擊通脹行動的影響。我們模型中的關鍵可交付成果很明確，以維持價格利潤率管理紀律，抵消第三季度和第四季度的計劃外停工和凍結影響，並繼續投資於我們的創新渠道和推動增長的能力。

Critical assumptions in our model are: we assume that the reset items like destocking are transitory; we assume that demand in our core markets performed in line with historic recessionary resilience; we assume the demand in China picks up and normalizes with the ongoing reopening. And as we did in '22, we continue to build resilience to react quickly to uncertain and unplanned external developments. Our outlook for the year takes into account the known macro operating environment and Ashland's unique position within that landscape. Speculation on the potential impact of highly uncertain macro factors that are out of our control or ability to forecast are not factored into our models.

我們模型中的關鍵假設是：我們假設去庫存等重置項目是暫時的；我們假設我們核心市場的需求表現符合歷史上的衰退彈性；我們假設中國的需求隨著持續的重新開放而回升並正常化。正如我們在 22 年所做的那樣，我們繼續建立彈性以對不確定和計劃外的外部發展做出快速反應。我們對今年的展望考慮了已知的宏觀經營環境和亞甚蘭在該領域的獨特地位。我們的模型未考慮對我們無法控製或無法預測的高度不確定的宏觀因素的潛在影響的推測。

Please turn to Slide 19. Overall, the last decade, Ashland's journey of transformation has sharpened our focus as an Additives and Specialty Ingredients company. As we systematically identify and tackle the thorniest problems, we concentrate on areas rich in opportunities to innovate and drive value for our customers, where innovation and expertise in 1 business unit can be leveraged in others. In closing, I want to thank the Ashland team again for their leadership and proactive ownership of their business in an uncertain environment. We have solidified our portfolio as a Global Additives and Specialty Ingredients company with exceptional businesses that have leadership positions in resilient, high-quality, consumer-driven segments. I am pleased by the resilience and execution demonstrated by our people and our business and look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead.

請轉到幻燈片 19。總的來說，過去十年，亞甚蘭的轉型之旅使我們更加專注於添加劑和特殊配料公司。當我們系統地識別和解決最棘手的問題時，我們專注於為客戶創新和推動價值的機會豐富的領域，在這些領域中，一個業務部門的創新和專業知識可以在其他業務部門得到利用。最後，我要再次感謝亞甚蘭團隊在不確定的環境中的領導能力和對業務的積極主動。作為一家全球添加劑和特殊配料公司，我們鞏固了我們的產品組合，擁有卓越的業務，在有彈性、高質量、以消費者為導向的細分市場中處於領先地位。我對我們的員工和業務表現出的韌性和執行力感到高興，並期待著未來的機遇。

Thank you. And operator, let's open it to Q&A.

謝謝。運營商，讓我們打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Christopher Parkinson from Mizuho Securities.

我們的第一個問題將來自瑞穗證券的克里斯托弗帕金森。

Guillermo, can you just give us a little bit more color on your remarks in January, and how you see the quarter shipping up on the destock and kind of focusing on Europe and China? And perhaps, just as important, the U.S. seems to be holding in on a relative basis. Can you just also hit on your expectations there, and where you'd assess inventory levels with your distribution as well as direct customers?

吉列爾莫，你能否就你在 1 月份的言論給我們更多的色彩，以及你如何看待本季度因去庫存而出貨量增加以及對歐洲和中國的關注？也許，同樣重要的是，美國似乎在相對基礎上堅持了下來。您是否也可以在那里達到您的期望，以及您在哪裡評估您的分銷和直接客戶的庫存水平？

Yes. Well, let me start with the general markets, and I'll comment on China and Europe and some of the headwinds we saw, and how they're changing. Overall, if you look at it, we did a lot of analysis in the first quarter and looking into January. For most of the world, the U.S. and a lot of the development, demand actually remained pretty solid, especially if you look at our core customers. Any -- it was softer than we had expected overall, so demand, but relative to prior year, they were able to hold up. And if you look at by market segments, it was pretty general. A lot of the destocking actions at our customers were very specific to customers, and in a specific market, one customer brought down inventories, but others did not.

是的。好吧，讓我從一般市場開始，我將評論中國和歐洲以及我們看到的一些逆風，以及它們是如何變化的。總的來說，如果你看一下，我們在第一季度和一月份做了很多分析。對於世界大部分地區，美國和許多發展，需求實際上仍然相當穩定，特別是如果你看看我們的核心客戶。任何 - 它比我們整體預期的要軟，所以需求，但相對於去年，他們能夠堅持下去。如果你按細分市場來看，它非常普遍。我們客戶的許多去庫存行動都是針對特定客戶的，在特定市場中，一個客戶降低了庫存，而其他客戶則沒有。

Even in -- I would say, even if you look at coatings and some of the Specialty Additives business, so we get a lot of questions, in the U.S., we saw softness in the DIY market. But in other areas, we saw strength in some of our major customers. So again, we sell additives. We're not the major high-volume ingredients. So some of the dynamics that happen to us is a little bit different than other players. For China, obviously, the reopening has had a big impact. I don't think we're any different than anybody else. We saw it with our plants. At one point in time, 95% of our team in the Nanjing plant reported infected. So we shut down for an extended period of time. I think that happened to our customers, to a lot of our suppliers and even distributors.

即使在 - 我會說，即使你看看塗料和一些特種添加劑業務，所以我們得到了很多問題，在美國，我們看到了 DIY 市場的疲軟。但在其他領域，我們看到了一些主要客戶的實力。同樣，我們出售添加劑。我們不是主要的大批量原料。所以發生在我們身上的一些動態與其他玩家有點不同。顯然，對中國來說，重新開放產生了重大影響。我不認為我們和其他人有什麼不同。我們在我們的植物中看到了它。在某個時間點，我們南京工廠團隊中 95% 的人都報告感染了。所以我們關閉了很長一段時間。我認為這發生在我們的客戶、我們的許多供應商甚至分銷商身上。

So I think what's happening in China is more about the COVID. There was some destocking, but I assume that even across the chain, everybody had the same problem we did in terms of shutting down operations, and we continue to see that in January. We saw a significant improvement in demands in -- our orders and sales in January, but China was down significantly. So we're hopeful that as we get now on the Chinese New Year, we'll see that pick up.

所以我認為中國正在發生的事情更多是關於 COVID。有一些去庫存，但我認為即使在整個鏈條中，每個人都遇到了我們在關閉業務方面遇到的同樣問題，我們在 1 月份繼續看到這種情況。我們看到 1 月份的訂單和銷售需求顯著改善，但中國的需求顯著下降。因此，我們希望在農曆新年到來之際，我們會看到這種情況有所好轉。

And then the same thing in Europe, we're seeing it stabilize, especially the distributor destocking, I think most of that should be behind us. And again, the demand at the customer level was customer by customer. So I think if you look at the core market resilience, this is why we're talking about what's the resilience of the market versus these reset items. Obviously, the reset items were the bigger driver and a lot of the underlying dynamics in many of the markets. So our take is that the things have slowed down, but the dynamics are solid in many of the markets. It's just an issue of where each player was in terms of how they were managing last year with tight supply and demand and their inventory positions. That would be transitory as we said.

然後在歐洲發生同樣的事情，我們看到它穩定下來，尤其是分銷商去庫存，我認為其中大部分應該已經過去了。同樣，客戶層面的需求是逐個客戶的。所以我認為，如果你看一下核心市場彈性，這就是為什麼我們要談論市場相對於這些重置項目的彈性。顯然，重置項目是更大的驅動因素，也是許多市場的潛在動力。所以我們的看法是，事情已經放緩，但許多市場的動態都很穩固。這只是每個參與者去年在供需緊張和庫存狀況下如何管理的問題。正如我們所說，那將是暫時的。

Understood. And just a little bit more of a long-term question. Just what's your -- obviously, there's been a little bit of noise in results due to storms and outages, maintenance, so on and so forth, but you've been pricing well. It seems like you're growing in the right areas in terms of being a beneficiary of mix. And then it seems like some of the inflationary headwinds that the entire platform is facing throughout the last fiscal year are beginning to ease, and in some cases, improved. So could you just give us a very quick update on your latest assessment of the margin potential across the entire portfolio and your confidence there within?

明白了。還有一點是一個長期問題。你的 - 顯然，由於風暴和停電，維護等原因，結果中有一些噪音，但你的定價很好。就成為混合的受益者而言，您似乎在正確的領域成長。然後整個平台在整個上個財政年度面臨的一些通貨膨脹逆風似乎開始緩解，在某些情況下甚至有所改善。那麼，您能否快速向我們介紹一下您對整個投資組合的利潤潛力的最新評估以及您對其中的信心？

Yes. I think the team has been very focused on that area. That is, as we highlighted, a critical deliverable for our models in terms of outlook. Remember, we don't have a lot of capacity. So volume was never a big driver. Obviously, we're looking at it on the negative side, what could happen as if volumes come down a little bit, but they were never a big driver on the upside just because of where we are. Most of our capacity will be coming on in 2024. We need it. Even with the slowdown, the production rates in many of the key technologies are still very high. So we need that capacity to drive growth.

是的。我認為團隊一直非常專注於該領域。也就是說，正如我們所強調的，就前景而言，這是我們模型的關鍵交付成果。請記住，我們沒有太多的容量。因此，銷量從來都不是一個重要的驅動因素。顯然，我們從消極的方面來看待它，好像交易量略有下降可能會發生什麼，但僅僅因為我們所處的位置，它們從來都不是上漲的主要推動力。我們的大部分產能將在 2024 年投入使用。我們需要它。即使放緩，許多關鍵技術的生產率仍然很高。因此，我們需要這種能力來推動增長。

So pricing and margin management is a critical, critical deliverable, and I think we're in a good place because we've captured everything that we needed to, both from the carryover from last year and actions that they took during the first quarter. So the issue really now is how prices develop. I think this is where there could be some noise with the China reopening on how that impacts global demand, and that's probably where there's more uncertainty. I think we see just the reopening will drive better demand in China, but the pace and magnitude, obviously, could have other implications around the world, which we're going to monitor. So I think we're in a good place on that pricing margin side.

因此，定價和利潤管理是一項關鍵的、關鍵的可交付成果，我認為我們處於一個好位置，因為我們已經掌握了我們需要的一切，包括去年的結轉和他們在第一季度採取的行動。所以現在真正的問題是價格如何發展。我認為這可能是中國重新開放對全球需求影響的一些聲音，而這可能是存在更多不確定性的地方。我認為我們只看到重新開放將推動中國更好的需求，但顯然，其速度和幅度可能會對全球產生其他影響，我們將對此進行監測。所以我認為我們在定價保證金方面處於有利地位。

The freezes did not impact our revenue or sales. We had inventory where it was more of the financial impact of the shutdown, maintenance and those kind of things that did impact the margins, but the underlying margins, even in Specialty Additives, are expected to rebound. They were fine in the quarter. It was just that added costs that came through. So in the things that we can control, we feel good. I think the issue now is, as we said, we're not immune to the external dynamics. Our biggest issue right now is making sure that we perform in line with our peer group. I mean we're all selling to the same -- if you're going to sell into product x, whatever, cosmetics as an example, we sell different ingredients. We should perform in line with our peers that are also focused on these resilient market segments.

凍結並未影響我們的收入或銷售額。我們有庫存，更多的是停工、維護和那些確實影響利潤率的事情對財務的影響，但潛在的利潤率，即使是特種添加劑，預計也會反彈。他們在本季度表現良好。只是增加了成本。所以在我們可以控制的事情上，我們感覺良好。我認為現在的問題是，正如我們所說，我們不能免受外部動力的影響。我們現在最大的問題是確保我們的表現與同行一致。我的意思是我們都賣相同的東西——如果你要賣產品 x，以化妝品為例，我們賣不同的成分。我們的表現應該與同樣關注這些有彈性的細分市場的同行保持一致。

And I think we're confident that we are doing that, and our issue is going to be like last year. If you look at our results last year, they were very good, but versus what we expected at the beginning of the year, a lot of different actions. We reacted very quickly to changing dynamics, and I think as has been the case for the last 3 years. It's about being nimble and assumptions change very quickly in this uncertain environment. And I'm confident that the team has performed well and will continue to perform well as we move forward.

而且我認為我們有信心我們正在這樣做，我們的問題將與去年一樣。如果你看看我們去年的結果，它們非常好，但與我們年初的預期相比，有很多不同的行動。我們對不斷變化的動態反應非常迅速，我認為過去 3 年也是如此。這是關於在這種不確定的環境中保持敏捷和假設變化非常快。而且我相信團隊表現良好，並且在我們前進的過程中將繼續表現良好。

Our next question will come from Josh Spector of UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Josh Spector。

Just on the mix improvement, it's a big, big part of your earnings growth over the last year. You talked about markets remaining tight. They were tight last year. You had limited capacity. Just wondering, given the double-digit volume decline, I think, you saw in some of your segments this quarter, if we see more of a prolonged destocking or a longer period of weaker demand, does that change that mix dynamic? Do you give some of that back? Or how do you react to that?

就組合改善而言，這是去年收入增長的很大一部分。你談到市場仍然吃緊。去年他們很緊張。你的能力有限。只是想知道，鑑於兩位數的銷量下降，我認為，你在本季度的一些細分市場中看到，如果我們看到更多的長期去庫存或更長時間的需求疲軟，這是否會改變這種混合動態？你會回饋一些嗎？或者你對此有何反應？

I think in some of the areas, it gives us some flexibility. We have to go back to some markets if volumes come down. That's flexibility that we have. But for the majority of the key ingredients, if you look at the acetylenics line, things are still really tight for the foreseeable outlook. Producers in Europe are still very challenged, and we're in a very strong position there. ATC remains tight in the market even with this lower demand. So it's going to vary by segment and product line, but our critical ones, I think, remain. We see a lot of that strength. Our issue, I think, is going to be looking at if volumes come down and we need to take actions to maintain inventories, we're not going to be building unnecessary inventory just for absorption.

我認為在某些領域，它給了我們一些靈活性。如果銷量下降，我們必須回到一些市場。這就是我們擁有的靈活性。但對於大多數關鍵成分，如果你看看乙炔生產線，在可預見的前景中，情況仍然非常緊張。歐洲的生產商仍然面臨很大挑戰，而我們在那里處於非常有利的地位。即使需求較低，ATC 仍然在市場上吃緊。所以它會因細分市場和產品線而異，但我認為我們的關鍵部分仍然存在。我們看到了很多這種力量。我認為，我們的問題是，如果銷量下降，我們需要採取行動來維持庫存，我們不會僅僅為了吸收而建立不必要的庫存。

We need to take actions to bring that down. I think what we're holding is, as raw materials come down a little bit, that we can offset that with raw materials. So in general, the -- although we -- our outlook is based on that resilient market profile that these markets have historically had, our planning and the actions that we're taking internally around costs, around how we manage our plants is taking a much more conservative outlook and saying, look, we need to be ahead of the curve as we did in 2022, and 2021 and in 2020. Plan ahead, be conservative, but don't start changing our outlooks on speculative information. React and -- plan and react as needed based on developments.

我們需要採取行動來降低這種情況。我認為我們持有的是，隨著原材料的下降，我們可以用原材料來抵消它。所以總的來說，儘管我們 - 我們的前景是基於這些市場歷史上具有彈性的市場概況，我們的計劃和我們在內部圍繞成本採取的行動，圍繞我們如何管理我們的工廠正在採取更加保守的前景，並說，看，我們需要像我們在 2022 年、2021 年和 2020 年所做的那樣走在曲線的前面。提前計劃，保持保守，但不要開始改變我們對投機信息的看法。根據發展情況做出反應並根據需要進行計劃和反應。

And if I could just ask specifically on Personal Care. I mean it was interesting double-digit pricing. So that stepped up from where you were. I think a lot of other specialty markets, we've seen pricing more level off. I guess, is there any risk that you're losing share going after that additional pricing?

如果我可以專門詢問個人護理。我的意思是這是有趣的兩位數定價。所以這從你所在的地方開始了。我認為很多其他專業市場，我們已經看到定價更加平穩。我想，在額外定價之後，你是否有失去份額的風險？

No. I think if you look at the numbers and we're seeing it already in January, again, we can't -- our initial -- like everybody else, initial view was, look, quarter was down. It must be the market. We try to align the first explanation to the narrative of the market that markets are down. Therefore, it must be that the markets are down. As we did our analysis, what we saw is, well, no, it's China and Europe distributors with the majority. So 50% probably the gap was China and 50% was distributors. I mean there's an overlap on the two. But it's -- these reset items, obviously, were the big impact, I would say, versus prior year, versus expectations, we have seen some softening in demand. But if you see in January, the orders have bounced back for Personal Care.

不，我想如果你看看這些數字，我們已經在一月份看到了，我們不能——我們最初的——像其他人一樣，最初的觀點是，看，季度下降了。一定是市場。我們試圖將第一個解釋與市場下跌的市場敘述相一致。因此，一定是市場在下跌。在我們進行分析時，我們看到的是，嗯，不，大多數是中國和歐洲的分銷商。所以 50% 的差距可能是中國，50% 是分銷商。我的意思是兩者有重疊。但它 - 顯然，這些重置項目產生了重大影響，我想說，與去年相比，與預期相比，我們看到需求有所疲軟。但如果你在 1 月份看到，個人護理的訂單已經反彈。

If we look at demand and we put control -- upper and lower control limits, we're just not looking at one number. But demand has bounced back to the midpoint of our control limits in terms of demand for Personal Care in January. It contrast that in Specialty Additives, we have seen an improvement, but demand has bounced back into the control limits, but they're more at the bottom end of the control limit. So our view is, pharma remains strong, Personal Care normalizes as we move forward, these reset items get more behind us and perform more in line with historic parameters. And our Specialty Additives, it's going to be a little bit of a mix, depending on the segments that we're on, but it's going to continue to improve, but probably will be a little bit softer than we expected at the beginning of the year.

如果我們查看需求並設置控制 - 控制上限和下限，我們只是看的不是一個數字。但就 1 月份的個人護理需求而言，需求已反彈至我們控制限值的中點。與之形成鮮明對比的是，在特種添加劑方面，我們看到了改善，但需求已反彈至控制限值，但它們更多地處於控制限值的底部。所以我們的觀點是，製藥業依然強勁，個人護理隨著我們的前進而正常化，這些重置項目在我們身後得到更多，並且表現更符合歷史參數。而我們的特種添加劑，它會有點混合，這取決於我們所處的細分市場，但它會繼續改進，但可能會比我們在開始時預期的要軟一些年。

Our next question will come from David Begleiter of Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的 David Begleiter。

Guillermo, just on price/cost tailwinds, what were they in Q1? What do you expect for Q2? And what's embedded in the guidance for the full year?

Guillermo，就價格/成本順風而言，它們在第一季度是什麼？你對Q2有什麼期待？全年的指導中包含什麼？

Okay. So our assumption is that we will continue to recover any inflationary pressures that we get. We did it last year, I think, in the first quarter. It's more -- it wasn't broad-based like last year, more specific to product lines. Like we said, cost for example, is a significant cost increase for us in the first quarter, and we took action on those items. So I think, as we move forward, it's going to be much more surgical. If needed, we probably will see things slow down from an inflationary pressure, but again, we'll have to react as that go -- that moves forward. Most of the inflation has been around energy, especially in Europe and specific raw materials where the supply-demand imbalances had a big impact.

好的。因此，我們的假設是我們將繼續恢復我們得到的任何通脹壓力。我認為，我們去年第一季度做到了。它更多 - 它不像去年那樣廣泛，更具體到產品線。就像我們說的，例如成本，第一季度對我們來說是一個顯著的成本增長，我們對這些項目採取了行動。所以我認為，隨著我們向前邁進，它將變得更加外科手術。如果需要，我們可能會看到通貨膨脹壓力使事情放緩，但同樣，我們將不得不做出反應——向前推進。大部分通脹都與能源有關，尤其是在歐洲和供需失衡產生重大影響的特定原材料。

And again, a lot of that has mostly been driven in Europe. So I think we're starting in a good point. We don't have to recover. We're not behind the curve. We're on the curve. And as we said, last year, we took actions to protect our margins. We didn't improve through inflationary pricing. We just did what we need to do to stay whole, and the improvement was driven more by that mix improvement. And we will continue to -- the mix improvement is not just because of the supply-demand dynamics, that's part of our strategy, of which areas we want to focus on a long term, where are we going to be investing. That mix improvement is driving our portfolio to the areas where we're making all the capital investments in the coming year.

而且，其中很多主要是在歐洲推動的。所以我認為我們的起點很好。我們不必恢復。我們並沒有落後於潮流。我們在曲線上。正如我們所說，去年，我們採取了行動來保護我們的利潤率。我們沒有通過通貨膨脹定價來改善。我們只是做了我們需要做的事情來保持完整，而這種改進更多地是由混合改進推動的。我們將繼續 - 混合改善不僅僅是因為供需動態，這是我們戰略的一部分，我們希望長期關注哪些領域，我們將在哪裡投資。這種組合改進正在將我們的投資組合推向我們在來年進行所有資本投資的領域。

And just on your outlook slide, you talked about the potential need for more inventory control and absorbing actions. Could you give a little more color on what you mean by that?

就在你的展望幻燈片上，你談到了對更多庫存控制和吸收行動的潛在需求。你能更詳細地說明你的意思嗎？

Yes. I think although we're forecasting that we're still in demand, this quarter, for example, as we said -- I think we said in the last call, we weren't going to take -- we were not going to take significant destocking actions because we were -- there was a lot of uncertainty, and we didn't want to get caught into a situation like 2021, where something happens and suddenly things get very tight. So that was sort of our position there. So the issue is going to be more if demand comes down. The one thing that's not in our model is, if we had to reduce production to meet us up, that would be a headwind for us that is not in our model. And we didn't want to highlight it for everybody that, that's just one of the risks.

是的。我認為，儘管我們預測我們仍然有需求，但本季度，例如，正如我們所說 - 我想我們在上次電話會議中說過，我們不會接受 - 我們不會接受重大的去庫存行動，因為我們 - 有很多不確定性，我們不想陷入像 2021 年這樣的情況，那裡會發生一些事情，突然間事情變得非常緊張。所以這就是我們在那裡的立場。因此，如果需求下降，問題將會更加嚴重。我們模型中沒有的一件事是，如果我們不得不減少產量以滿足我們的需求，那將是我們模型中不存在的逆風。我們不想向所有人強調，這只是風險之一。

Everything we're trying to do now is, given what the uncertainty is, make sure that we're transparent. We don't know where it's going, but let our investors decide if they want to -- what perspectives they have on some of these areas. And I would say, absorption would be a potential headwind if things continue to be or get softer as we move forward. I don't think that -- that's not our current model right now, but it's something that we continue to monitor. We are not going to rebuild. We're not going to drive absorption by building inventory. Working capital discipline is something that's very important to us that we're going to maintain.

考慮到不確定性，我們現在要做的就是確保我們是透明的。我們不知道它的發展方向，但讓我們的投資者決定他們是否願意——他們對其中一些領域有什麼看法。我會說，如果我們前進時情況繼續或變得更溫和，那麼吸收將是一個潛在的逆風。我不認為 - 這不是我們目前的模型，但我們會繼續監控它。我們不會重建。我們不會通過建立庫存來推動吸收。營運資金紀律對我們來說非常重要，我們將繼續保持。

Our next question will come from the line of John McNulty of BMO.

我們的下一個問題將來自 BMO 的 John McNulty。

Guillermo, I know last year, a lot of the big issues you had were around freight and logistics, and it looks like those channels or those issues have largely been resolved. Can you speak to what kind of cost relief you're seeing there? I know we've seen the availability of things like freight to improve, but on the cost side, I guess I'd be curious how much of a tailwind that actually might be for you at this point.

吉列爾莫，我知道去年你遇到的很多大問題都與貨運和物流有關，看起來這些渠道或那些問題已經基本解決了。你能談談你在那裡看到什麼樣的成本減免嗎？我知道我們已經看到貨運等方面的可用性有所改善，但在成本方面，我想我很好奇此時實際可能對您有多大的順風。

So definitely, we've seen improvement into the last quarter of last year. We were starting to see improvement throughout this quarter. Our first quarter, we continue to see that. So I think that's stabilizing our inventory and that's allowed us to rebuild a lot of our inventory levels. There are still -- I mean it's not back to normal, it's still that on-time shipments are still catching up, and it really depends on which lines you're talking about, but clearly, a big improvement. On the cost side, we're also seeing some improvement. Just a reminder, as we did -- our shipments are from Europe and the U.S. out. So some of the ultra-high costs from exporting from China out were not the big driver for us. Our bigger problem was the on-time -- the reliability of the supply chain was a bigger challenge. So it is an improvement area, but it's not relative to maybe other companies, it's not the same size, given where our channels of flow are going to.

所以可以肯定的是，我們已經看到去年最後一個季度有所改善。我們在本季度開始看到改善。我們的第一季度，我們繼續看到這一點。所以我認為這正在穩定我們的庫存，這讓我們能夠重建很多庫存水平。仍然 - 我的意思是它沒有恢復正常，準時發貨仍在追趕，這真的取決於你在談論哪條線路，但顯然，這是一個很大的改進。在成本方面，我們也看到了一些改善。提醒一下，就像我們所做的那樣——我們的貨物是從歐洲和美國運出的。因此，從中國出口的一些超高成本並不是我們的主要驅動力。我們更大的問題是準時——供應鏈的可靠性是一個更大的挑戰。所以這是一個改進領域，但它可能與其他公司無關，考慮到我們的流量渠道將流向哪裡，它的規模也不一樣。

John, those costs continue to ramp through a lot of '22 just based on energy prices, et cetera. So for our Q1, freight logistics was still higher than prior year. Probably, call it, around $10 million, give or take. So that was -- that continued to be negative from a cost perspective. But again, obviously, that's slowed down. As the year progresses, those comps should get better.

約翰，這些成本在 22 年的很多時間裡都在不斷攀升，僅僅基於能源價格等等。因此，對於我們的第一季度，貨運物流仍然高於去年。大概，稱之為，大約 1000 萬美元，給予或接受。所以那是 - 從成本的角度來看，這仍然是負面的。但是，很明顯，這又放慢了速度。隨著時間的推移，這些組合應該會變得更好。

Got it. Okay. No, that makes sense. That's clear. And then I guess with regard to the buyback that you guys have in place, the $100 million 10b-5, I guess can you help us to think about the timing or how -- like the duration of that buyback? And how much you're kind of committing to for your fiscal 2023? How should we be thinking about that? And just given higher rates at this point, given the market's unwinding a little bit over the last, whatever, 9 to 12 months in terms of valuations, do you see more opportunities at this point to put capital into M&A? I know it's a target for you, but I guess, can you help us to think about whether it's a more target-rich environment at this point or maybe not?

知道了。好的。不，這是有道理的。這很清楚。然後我想關於你們已經到位的回購，即 1 億美元的 10b-5，我想你能幫助我們考慮時間或如何——比如回購的持續時間嗎？您為 2023 財年做出了多少承諾？我們應該如何思考？考慮到此時利率較高，考慮到市場在過去 9 到 12 個月的估值方面有所放鬆，您是否認為此時有更多機會將資本投入併購？我知道這是您的目標，但我想，您能否幫助我們考慮目前是否是目標更豐富的環境？

Let me comment on the M&A side, and Kevin, you can comment on the buyback process. I think our focus right now is driven with bolt-ons. I think we're in a good position to do that in terms of our cash position and our overall capital availability. So this does not change the interest or opportunities. I think the reality is, it takes a little bit of time for the valuations to reset, and we're looking at specific opportunities that we continue to work on, but we're going to be patient. Our view is, we got -- organic growth has to be the big driver. Innovation, the capital has to be where the engine is, and we want to do these bolt-ons to augment our portfolio. But we don't want to be in the mode of having to do it or going and paying prices that we will not create value in the long term.

讓我評論併購方面，凱文，你可以評論回購過程。我認為我們現在的重點是補強。我認為我們在現金狀況和整體資本可用性方面處於有利地位。所以這不會改變興趣或機會。我認為現實情況是，估值需要一點時間來重置，我們正在尋找我們繼續努力的具體機會，但我們會耐心等待。我們的觀點是，我們得到了 - 有機增長必須成為主要驅動力。創新，資本必須在引擎所在的地方，我們希望通過這些補強措施來擴大我們的投資組合。但我們不希望處於必須這樣做或付出代價的模式，因為從長遠來看，我們不會創造價值。

So we're going to be patient. We're going to be disciplined as we move forward. And I do think the environment will improve as we move into the back half of 2023 from an M&A perspective. So I don't think we're changing our ability or interest to do that. But Kevin, do you want to talk about the process?

所以我們要有耐心。我們將在前進的過程中受到紀律處分。而且我確實認為，從併購的角度來看，隨著我們進入 2023 年下半年，環境將會改善。所以我不認為我們正在改變我們這樣做的能力或興趣。但是凱文，你想談談這個過程嗎？

Sure. So in terms of the value, we are committed to the $100 million. I mean strictly speaking, these plans can be turned on and off, but our intention is to spend the $100 million. In terms of how long it will take, it will be a function of price and the volume of Ashland shares that are traded. The way these programs work is, we will have an agreed grid -- price and volume grid with the bank that's executing this buyback for us, and they'll be in the market each day, and the amount of shares that they buy will be dependent on how many shares you're trading and at what price. I would expect us to be able to complete this by the end of the quarter. That would be my expectation, but will remain to be seen. But if not by the end of the quarter, certainly, by early in the June quarter.

當然。因此，就價值而言，我們承諾 1 億美元。我的意思是嚴格來說，這些計劃可以開啟和關閉，但我們的意圖是花掉這 1 億美元。就需要多長時間而言，這將取決於價格和交易的亞甚蘭股票數量。這些計劃的運作方式是，我們將與為我們執行回購的銀行達成一致的價格和數量網格，他們每天都會進入市場，他們購買的股票數量將是取決於您交易的股票數量和價格。我希望我們能夠在本季度末完成這項工作。那將是我的期望，但還有待觀察。但如果不是在本季度末，肯定會在 6 月季度初。

That's actually a bit faster than we were thinking, so good to hear.

這實際上比我們想像的要快一點，很高興聽到。

Our next question will come from Mike Harrison of Seaport Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Mike Harrison。

I was wondering if you can give a little bit more color on the strong demand that you're seeing in the pharma business. Is this increasing penetration or share of wallet with existing customers? There's new customers, new products, and I guess, maybe what are you seeing in terms of underlying market growth? Really just trying to get a sense of whether this growth that you're seeing there or strength is sustainable through the rest of fiscal '23.

我想知道你是否可以對你在製藥行業看到的強烈需求給出更多的顏色。這是否增加了現有客戶的滲透率或錢包份額？有新客戶，新產品，我想，也許您在潛在市場增長方面看到了什麼？真的只是想了解你在那裡看到的這種增長或實力在 23 財年的剩餘時間裡是否可持續。

Yes. So the underlying market has remained resilient. So it's not that the overall market is growing at the same pace. We clearly have gained share. And this segment, as we said last year, we did not expect a lot of reset there. Significant concerns, still about availability of product, both -- supply chain was a headache prior year, but obviously, the situation in Europe and specifically, in Germany, has had a lot of impact on availability of product, reliability of supply. So as in a broad base, that entire industry has been focused on reliability, given the products and the importance of their products to society and to the health -- welfare of people. That's been the big driver, and we saw that as we move forward.

是的。因此，基礎市場一直保持彈性。因此，並不是整個市場都在以同樣的速度增長。我們顯然已經獲得了份額。而這個部分，正如我們去年所說，我們沒想到會有很多重置。對產品可用性的重大擔憂仍然是——供應鏈在去年是一個令人頭疼的問題，但顯然，歐洲，特別是德國的情況，對產品可用性和供應可靠性產生了很大影響。因此，在廣泛的基礎上，考慮到產品及其產品對社會和健康——人們福祉的重要性，整個行業一直專注於可靠性。這是最大的推動力，我們在前進的過程中看到了這一點。

Now looking out, we expect demand to continue to remain strong. We probably will not see significant resetting of stocks or things of that nature, and I think we will continue to do well as we look out. Will things normalize in Europe? And supply, I'm sure, towards the back end of the year, there could be some improvement, and will normalize some of our growth rates towards the back end of the year. The question is going to be, what's going to happen in Europe, and I don't think there's a lot of certainty. So we've made commitment to our customers and them to us to make sure that we're guaranteeing as best we can, the supply reliability.

現在展望未來，我們預計需求將繼續保持強勁。我們可能不會看到股票或類似性質的東西出現重大重置，我認為我們會繼續保持良好狀態。歐洲會正常化嗎？供應，我敢肯定，到今年年底，可能會有一些改善，並將在年底使我們的一些增長率正常化。問題將是，歐洲將會發生什麼，我認為沒有太多的確定性。因此，我們已向我們的客戶和他們向我們做出承諾，以確保我們盡我們所能保證供應的可靠性。

And then a question on the Calvert City disruption that you had. Is part of the $15 million impact related to winterization or backup power or other measures to help make sure that, that facility is more resilient in future cold weather? And then do you expect any insurance recoveries associated with that outage?

然後是關於您遇到的卡爾弗特市中斷的問題。 1500 萬美元影響的一部分是否與防凍或備用電源或其他有助於確保該設施在未來寒冷天氣中更具彈性的措施有關？那麼您是否期望與該中斷相關的任何保險恢復？

Most of it -- and Kevin, you can comment a little bit more, but it's maintenance to repair, bring it up to speed and the absorption impact. This plant is not a new plant. It has been in that weather. This weather was not the worse. It was a very unique problem we had in one of unit that had later on implications with others. And that's why the maintenance and the downtime was much more significant than expected. So it was really very specific to a unit that in our compressed air that you think of in freezing weather about liquids and things like that. Air is probably not the area that you're more concerned, and there was just a failure in a specific area that had a downstream effect in boilers and other areas. So that's really the big driver. The plant historically has done very well in this kind of weather. So it's more of a unique situation. But Kevin, if you want to give a little bit more color on the numbers.

其中大部分 - 凱文，你可以多評論一點，但它是維護修復，加快速度和吸收影響。這種植物不是新植物。一直在那種天氣。這種天氣並沒有變得更糟。這是我們在一個單位中遇到的一個非常獨特的問題，後來對其他單位產生了影響。這就是維護和停機時間比預期嚴重得多的原因。所以它真的非常特定於一個單位，在我們的壓縮空氣中，你會想到在寒冷的天氣里關於液體和類似的東西。空氣可能不是您更關心的領域，只是特定領域的故障對鍋爐和其他領域產生了下游影響。所以這真的是最大的驅動力。從歷史上看，該工廠在這種天氣下表現非常出色。所以這更像是一種獨特的情況。但是凱文，如果你想給數字多一點色彩。

Yes. It's -- the biggest chunk of it is lost absorption. Repair costs are going to be smaller -- a smaller piece of the equation. From an insurance perspective, we actually maintain pretty high deductible to keep our rates as low as possible. We have historically been very, very comfortable with that simply because we just haven't had that many issues over the course of time. And so we've banked a lot of saves premium as a result of that, but it's probably 3 to 5 of the total impact is going to be repair cost and the rest is going to be lost absorption.

是的。它是——其中最大的一部分是失去吸收。維修成本將會降低——只是等式中的一小部分。從保險的角度來看，我們實際上保持相當高的免賠額以保持我們的費率盡可能低。從歷史上看，我們對此非常非常滿意，因為我們在一段時間內沒有遇到那麼多問題。因此，我們已經存入了大量的儲蓄溢價，但總影響中可能有 3 到 5 是維修成本，其餘的將被吸收。

And this is where, for the third and fourth quarter, we had plant shutdowns, obviously. Since we had shutdowns, we try to do as much other maintenance as possible, too. So that's what the team is working is what work was completed, what do we -- what can we avoid in terms of future shutdowns. And that's why the timing of the offsets will be not in the same quarter, it's going to be more around when we had some of those other activities planned.

顯然，這就是第三和第四季度我們工廠停工的地方。由於我們停工，我們也嘗試盡可能多地進行其他維護。所以這就是團隊正在努力完成的工作，我們做什麼 - 我們可以在未來的停工方面避免什麼。這就是為什麼抵消的時間不會在同一個季度，當我們計劃了一些其他活動時，它會更多。

And sorry, Kevin, just to clarify...

對不起，凱文，只是為了澄清......

The Calvert plant, specific -- Mike, for the Calvert plant specifically, we typically do a kind of a June turnaround there that often typically last several weeks. And so part of what we're working on right now that Guillermo just mentioned is, what can we avoid later in the year as a result of what we've been doing at the Calvert City plant to make these repairs, not only these repairs, but also some of the things we would have done in June as well. I'm sorry, go ahead, you got another question?

Calvert 工廠，具體 - 邁克，特別是對於 Calvert 工廠，我們通常會在那裡進行一種 6 月的周轉，通常持續數週。因此，Guillermo 剛才提到的我們現在正在做的部分工作是，由於我們在卡爾弗特市工廠所做的這些維修工作，而不僅僅是這些維修工作，我們在今年晚些時候可以避免什麼，還有一些我們本應在 6 月完成的事情。抱歉，請繼續，你還有其他問題嗎？

Yes, sorry. I just wanted to clarify on the insurance recovery. Are you saying that the deductible is so high that you're not going to get any recovery? Or it will just be very modest compared to the $15 million?

是的，對不起。我只是想澄清一下保險賠償。你是說免賠額這麼高，你不會得到任何恢復？或者與 1500 萬美元相比，它只是非常適中？

Yes, there's no expectation of recovery. There are multiple categories of deductible involved in an event like this. So you've got the property piece, and you've got business interruption and you've got to hit those limits on both. It's not an either/or kind of thing. So we don't expect any insurance recovery from this event.

是的，沒有康復的希望。像這樣的事件涉及多種免賠額。所以你有財產，你有業務中斷，你必須在這兩個方面都達到這些限制。這不是一種非此即彼的事情。因此，我們預計不會從該事件中獲得任何保險賠償。

And our next question will come from John Roberts of Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Roberts。

Well, most of the business saw destocking, do you think pharma ingredients saw any restocking activity? I know you had some logistic issues last year, and do you think there was any timing issues that help pharma? Because sometimes -- I know sometimes the shipment would fall one quarter or the other, and these are large high-value shipments that occur.

好吧，大多數企業都在去庫存，您認為製藥原料有任何補貨活動嗎？我知道你去年遇到了一些後勤問題，你認為有什麼時間問題可以幫助製藥公司嗎？因為有時——我知道有時發貨量會下降一個季度或另一個季度，而這些都是大量高價值的貨物。

If we look at just January, I mean, we continue to see strong demand. I think it's more of that share gain was the bigger impact. I don't think there was overstocking. It was more me ensuring our customers ensuring that they have the stock in the right place. I think between COVID and the European situation, there is a lot of uncertainty around supply in some of these areas, and for this type of industry, their risk management has been a top priority. I think in the last call, I mentioned that when I was in Europe in November at one of the big events for the pharma industry, it was very clear that most customers were very focused on for 2023 risk management in terms of supply, given all the uncertainty that existed then, and I think still remains now with some of the developments. But we're monitoring that closely, and we haven't seen any change in January.

如果我們只看一月份，我的意思是，我們繼續看到強勁的需求。我認為更多的份額收益是更大的影響。我不認為存貨過多。我更多的是確保我們的客戶確保他們在正確的地方有庫存。我認為在 COVID 和歐洲局勢之間，其中一些地區的供應存在很多不確定性，對於這類行業，他們的風險管理一直是重中之重。我想在上次電話中，我提到當我 11 月在歐洲參加製藥行業的一個重大活動時，很明顯大多數客戶都非常關注 2023 年供應方面的風險管理，因為所有當時存在的不確定性，我認為現在仍然存在一些事態發展。但我們正在密切關注這一點，我們在 1 月份沒有看到任何變化。

On Slide 5, under the resilient U.S. demand, you listed architectural paint additives. I believe most of the paint companies reporting so far have had weak architectural volumes. So how do we reconcile that?

在幻燈片 5 中，在彈性的美國需求下，您列出了建築塗料添加劑。我相信到目前為止報告的大多數塗料公司的建築量都很弱。那麼我們如何調和呢？

Again, several things. We did see weakness in the DIY space. I think the contractor space remained more resilient, and we don't necessarily follow 100% dynamics with additives. When you see a lot of destocking, we're not the main ingredients to drive inventory levels and things of that nature. So there's just unique situations. And again, we're working with a lot of our customers. Supply remains tight around the world even with the softening. So we're working to make sure this is not just about a quarter, it's for the whole year of how we work to ensure that they have the right products. The issue without it is, if you don't have them, it doesn't matter what you have with the other raw materials, you can't produce. So they are very focused to make sure that they don't have the same problems they had last year.

再說幾件事。我們確實看到了 DIY 領域的弱點。我認為承包商空間仍然更具彈性，我們不一定要遵循 100% 的添加劑動態。當你看到大量去庫存時，我們並不是推動庫存水平和類似事物的主要因素。所以只有獨特的情況。再一次，我們正在與很多客戶合作。即使在疲軟的情況下，全球供應仍然緊張。因此，我們正在努力確保這不僅僅是一個季度，而是整個一年我們如何努力確保他們擁有合適的產品。沒有它的問題是，如果你沒有它們，不管你有什麼其他原材料，你都無法生產。所以他們非常專注於確保他們不會遇到與去年相同的問題。

Our next question will come from Jeff Zekauskas of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Jeff Zekauskas。

In your press release, you said that currency negatively affected your EBITDA by $14 million, and I think your currency effect on sales was about $24 million, $25 million. Why wouldn't the effect on EBITDA just be $4 million or $5 million consistent with your EBITDA margin? Why would it be so large relative to the sales impact? And second, can you comment on the trends in your -- in the margins of your Intermediates and Solvents business? Is that business getting weaker or stronger or staying the same?

在你的新聞稿中，你說貨幣對你的 EBITDA 產生了 1400 萬美元的負面影響，我認為你的貨幣對銷售額的影響約為 2400 萬、2500 萬美元。為什麼對 EBITDA 的影響不會只是 400 萬美元或 500 萬美元與您的 EBITDA 利潤率一致？為什麼相對於銷售影響會如此之大？其次，您能否評論一下您的中間體和溶劑業務利潤率的趨勢？該業務是變弱了還是變強了還是保持不變？

Okay. Well, let me comment on the Intermediates and then Kevin, you can comment on the currency. So Intermediates has held up -- a reminder, most of our Intermediate business is the downstream products, NMP, BLO, BDO. We have the captive, and we have a use and maybe of our merchant business, maybe 20% of -- a little bit of it varies. 20%, 25% of our merchant business is BDO. So I would say, in BDO, clearly, the markets are long. Prices have been coming down. Internally, for us, our pharma business has been strong and the Personal -- even in Personal Care, our core business with customers versus distributors continues to hold up.

好的。好吧，讓我評論一下 Intermediates，然後是 Kevin，你可以評論一下貨幣。所以中間體一直堅持——提醒一下，我們的大部分中間體業務是下游產品，NMP、BLO、BDO。我們有俘虜，我們有使用，也許是我們的商業業務，可能有 20%——有一點不同。 20%、25%的商業業務是BDO。所以我想說，在 BDO 中，很明顯，市場很長。價格一直在下降。在內部，對我們來說，我們的製藥業務一直很強勁，而個人——即使在個人護理領域，我們與客戶和分銷商的核心業務繼續保持堅挺。

So volumes -- internal captive volumes were good, although transfer pricing, not so much in this quarter, but we are forecasting them to be coming down just because markets are longer. That will be a negative for Intermediates, but a positive for our downstream businesses as we go through the year. We don't see that BDO dynamics are going to change that much in the near term. I think it really will require markets to start picking up probably in the second half of the year for things like fibers, polyurethane. There's a lot of these other bigger markets that will drive that part, but that's not the biggest part. But on the margin, we'll see some impact in the next quarter.

所以數量 - 內部專屬數量很好，雖然轉讓定價在本季度沒有那麼多，但我們預測它們會因為市場更長而下降。這對中間體不利，但對我們全年的下游業務有利。我們認為 BDO 動態在短期內不會發生太大變化。我認為這真的需要市場在今年下半年開始回暖，比如纖維、聚氨酯。有很多其他更大的市場將推動這部分，但這不是最大的部分。但就利潤率而言，我們將在下一季度看到一些影響。

If you look at NMP and BLO, there are different products driven by different markets. We are not pricing as maybe the markets were in the past. Just assume it's all a commodity and move it, these downstream products are very valuable. NMP is going into semiconductors and to the EV market for battery production. Huge investments going in, in the U.S. and in Europe. We're focusing our portfolio more in the U.S. and Europe, less on Asia. Demand is going up. There is not enough product. So we are working with all our customers and people that are investing in both regions to make sure that we have the product they need as they ramp up the construction of their plants and increase production.

如果你看一下 NMP 和 BLO，就會發現不同的市場驅動著不同的產品。我們沒有像過去的市場那樣定價。假設這都是商品並移動它，這些下游產品非常有價值。 NMP 正在進入半導體和電動汽車市場以生產電池。在美國和歐洲進行大量投資。我們將我們的投資組合更多地集中在美國和歐洲，而不是亞洲。需求正在上升。沒有足夠的產品。因此，我們正在與在這兩個地區投資的所有客戶和人員合作，以確保我們在他們加快工廠建設和增加產量時擁有他們所需的產品。

So the pricing and supply-demand dynamics are a bit different. And similarly, in the BLO market, these are going into active ingredient production for pharma, for Personal Care, very specialized applications in the semi and the electronics industry, too. We're the only Western merchant player, and again, the dynamics there are different. Markets have been tight, and we're pricing each product on their own, not just trying to move BDO. In the past, remember, we were a big BDO house, and it was just moved like most commodity companies. You want to load the asset and just move it through across. We're not a big BDO house anymore. Most of our production is for captive use and to support our downstream. So we have a very different strategy.

所以定價和供需動態有點不同。同樣，在 BLO 市場，這些產品也將用於製藥、個人護理、半導體和電子行業非常專業的應用的活性成分生產。我們是唯一的西方商人玩家，而且那裡的動態也不同。市場一直吃緊，我們正在為每種產品單獨定價，而不僅僅是試圖轉移 BDO。過去，請記住，我們是 BDO 的大房子，就像大多數商品公司一樣只是搬家。您想要加載資產並將其移動穿過。我們不再是大型 BDO 公司了。我們的大部分產品用於自用和支持我們的下游。所以我們有一個非常不同的策略。

And so far, precedent has been holding up what we're trying to see is more of that demand. I think on the margin, we will see softness in BDO, and the other ones, I think we'll have to see how markets develop, especially in Europe. And I think also with the China opening up, a lot of excess product that may be just trying to find homes outside of China now that there's no demand, all that will be pulling back into China as China reopens.

到目前為止，先例一直阻礙著我們試圖看到的是更多的需求。我認為在邊際上，我們將看到 BDO 的疲軟，而其他市場，我認為我們將不得不看看市場如何發展，尤其是在歐洲。而且我認為，隨著中國的開放，很多過剩的產品可能只是想在中國以外的地方尋找歸宿，因為現在沒有需求，隨著中國重新開放，所有這些產品都將撤回中國。

Kevin, if you want to talk about FX.

凱文，如果你想談談外匯。

Sure. Just the impact is a little counterintuitive on the surface. As you look at it, our manufacturing footprint is pretty U.S.-centric, especially for our higher-margin products. So not only do you have a lower selling price on a translation basis outside the U.S. because of the strong dollar, we also have higher COGS, and because we're U.S. dollar-based manufacturing for a lot of those products. So you kind of get hit on both sides of the equation. So you have an outsized impact on the gross profit and ultimately, the EBITDA piece of the equation. That's why the numbers don't necessarily on the surface make as much sense. I don't know if that answers your question or not, but it has to do with the fact that we're more U.S-centric on the manufacturing side.

當然。只是影響從表面上看有點違反直覺。正如您所看到的，我們的製造足跡非常以美國為中心，尤其是我們的高利潤產品。因此，不僅由於美元走強，你在美國以外的翻譯基礎上的銷售價格較低，而且我們的銷貨成本也較高，而且因為我們以美元為基礎生產很多這些產品。所以你有點受到等式兩邊的打擊。因此，您對毛利產生了巨大的影響，最終影響了等式中的 EBITDA 部分。這就是為什麼表面上的數字不一定有意義。我不知道這是否回答了你的問題，但這與我們在製造方面更以美國為中心的事實有關。

And then lastly, you said your planned maintenance cost in the quarter was $12 million. Is that a lot or a little? What are your planned maintenance costs on an annual basis? Is this a year of larger planned maintenance costs or smaller planned maintenance costs?

最後，您說本季度的計劃維護成本為 1200 萬美元。那是很多還是一點點？您每年的計劃維護成本是多少？今年是計劃維護成本較高還是計劃維護成本較低？

From a plan perspective, it's pretty consistent year-to-year. What can differ, what can vary is the timing. So this year versus last year, we're heavier -- we're much heavier in Q1, especially in the Specialty Additives area than we were prior year. But on an overall basis, it's pretty consistent. The impact typically is around $40 million a year in total, give or take. The big variable with that one, Jeff, would be the Lima, Ohio BDO plant. We do that 1 about every 3 years, and that one brings some number up whenever we have to do. But otherwise, it's very consistent from one year to the next in total.

從計劃的角度來看，它每年都非常一致。可以不同的是時間。所以今年與去年相比，我們更重了——我們在第一季度比去年重得多，尤其是在特種添加劑領域。但總的來說，它是非常一致的。影響通常每年總計約為 4000 萬美元，或多或少。 Jeff 的最大變數是俄亥俄州利馬的 BDO 工廠。我們大約每 3 年做一次，每當我們必須做的時候，那個人就會提出一些數字。但除此之外，它從一年到下一年總體上非常一致。

Our next question will come from Michael Sison of Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Michael Sison。

Just one question. You talked about adding a lot of capacity this year. How much growth does that provide you over the next couple of years in either sales growth or EBITDA? And depending how quickly that fills up, when will you need to add more?

只有一個問題。你談到今年要增加很多產能。在接下來的幾年中，這會給您帶來多少銷售額增長或 EBITDA 增長？並且取決於填滿的速度，您何時需要添加更多？

And so we're adding capacity in our core segments. So HEC, which is very tight globally not just for us, but for the industry. So that will come on. We're expanding in Hopewell, and that will be significant capacity increase. For us, we probably won't need new capacity there for several years. We're expanding capacity in our Benecel lines and that's more targeting our mix towards pharma and nutrition, a lot of the plant-based protein-type applications. Klucel, which is pharma-driven and Aquaflow on the coating. So we need the material, the capacity. The next tranche will vary by each of the product lines, but this will cover us for several years. So it's a significant number of important projects. There are other areas where we're not investing where we believe we have plenty of capacity. And as our mix changes and focus changes, we're going to be focusing on strategic areas that are higher growth, higher value, higher differentiation areas.

因此，我們正在增加核心部門的產能。因此，HEC 在全球範圍內不僅對我們而且對整個行業都非常緊張。所以那會發生。我們正在 Hopewell 擴張，這將顯著增加產能。對我們來說，我們可能幾年都不需要那裡的新產能。我們正在擴大我們的 Benecel 生產線的產能，這更多地針對我們對製藥和營養的組合，很多基於植物的蛋白質類型的應用。 Klucel，它是製藥驅動的，塗層上有 Aquaflow。所以我們需要材料，能力。下一部分將因每個產品線而異，但這將涵蓋我們數年。因此，這是大量的重要項目。在我們認為我們有足夠產能的其他領域，我們沒有進行投資。隨著我們的組合變化和重點變化，我們將專注於更高增長、更高價值、更高差異化領域的戰略領域。

So if demand is there, you'd be able to grow your mid-single digit type of growth for several years?

因此，如果存在需求，您將能夠在幾年內保持中等個位數的增長？

Yes. Like we said, last year and this year, volume is not the growth driver. We don't have any more product to sell. I mean any hiccup and we're short again. I mean even with the softness, HEC as an example, the capacity utilizations for the industry will remain pretty high. So I don't think the reset -- again, a lot of what we're looking at is what's going on in the core demand, is that behaving per historic levels on resilience and things of that nature. We haven't seen any data that changes that. Even if we dig into our numbers, it's -- the core businesses have actually been resilient. We cannot make a statement based on what happened in Q1. We cannot say, these segments are falling abnormally versus history.

是的。正如我們所說，去年和今年，銷量不是增長動力。我們沒有更多的產品可以賣了。我的意思是任何打嗝，我們又做空了。我的意思是，即使以 HEC 為例，即使出現疲軟，該行業的產能利用率仍將保持在很高水平。因此，我不認為重置——同樣，我們正在研究的很多內容是核心需求中正在發生的事情，即在彈性和類似性質的事情上按照歷史水平表現。我們還沒有看到任何改變這種情況的數據。即使我們深入研究我們的數字，它也是——核心業務實際上是有彈性的。我們不能根據第一季度發生的事情發表聲明。我們不能說，這些細分市場與歷史相比正在異常下跌。

So really, it's about this reset, and I think this is why the next 2 months are very important, and we've really -- having a few months, a month or 1.5 months of the China reopening is very important. Also the Europe post-winter to see how the energy situation and supply-demand dynamics in Europe will turn up. Those are big issues because they impact this reset notion that is different. If you look at historic recessions, you went from a normal demand supply into a recessionary environment. We're not coming from a normal position, we're coming from a very tight supply demand where people were behaving in a certain way. So this reset probably is not something we've seen. So it's not normal versus history and that's where we're getting the noise. But as we put that behind, we do believe it's transitory. We should see then the underlying performance of the markets, and the capacity we're adding should put us in a good position starting 2024 to really drive volume growth, which is -- has to be our #1 priority.

所以真的，這是關於這次重置，我認為這就是為什麼接下來的兩個月非常重要，我們真的 - 有幾個月，一個月或 1.5 個月的中國重新開放非常重要。還有歐洲過冬，看看歐洲的能源形勢和供需動態將如何發展。這些都是大問題，因為它們會影響不同的重置概念。如果你看看歷史性的衰退，你就會從正常的需求供應進入衰退環境。我們不是來自正常情況，而是來自供應需求非常緊張，人們以某種方式行事。所以這次重置可能不是我們見過的。所以這與歷史相比是不正常的，這就是我們聽到噪音的地方。但當我們把它拋在腦後時，我們確實相信它是暫時的。然後我們應該看到市場的基本表現，我們正在增加的容量應該讓我們在 2024 年開始處於有利位置，以真正推動銷量增長，這必須是我們的第一要務。

And our next question will come from Laurence Alexander of Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Laurence Alexander。

So just to expand on that notion of the reset. I guess, first of all, is it right that the volume in most of the business lines were down more than 10% in the quarter outside Personal Care and Oral Care? And what do you think, given that the inventory just -- given what you've seen with the European Nation inventory adjustment, what is your benchmark based on your historical analysis for what this portfolio should do if there actually is a U.S. recession? And then I guess just lastly, after 2024, when you have ample capacity, what do you see as a reasonable range of lumpiness quarter-to-quarter given the kind of swings we're seeing in inventory positions?

所以只是為了擴展重置的概念。我想，首先，除了個人護理和口腔護理之外，大多數業務線的銷量在本季度下降了 10% 以上是對的嗎？你怎麼看，考慮到庫存 - 考慮到你在歐洲國家庫存調整中看到的情況，如果美國真的出現衰退，你的基準是什麼？根據你的歷史分析，這個投資組合應該做什麼？然後我想最後，在 2024 年之後，當你有足夠的產能時，考慮到我們在庫存頭寸中看到的那種波動，你認為每季度的合理波動範圍是多少？

I think just to go through in the order that you mentioned, we still see demand holding up. If we look at underlying historic demand, we're not immune. There is -- when you start a recession, you could get some slowdown, but in general, we are in Personal Care. We're not in home care in our markets. Those tend to be resilient. You could see markets go down in single digits to stay up in the middle digit. So that's really where we see a lot of the history. We're selling -- we're tracking right now absolute versus relative. We want to make sure that in the absolute that we're staying flat to our longer-term goal of 200 to 300 basis points over market, which would put you in the middle single digits, and you're going to vary in that level of range.

我認為只是按照您提到的順序進行，我們仍然看到需求持續增長。如果我們看看潛在的歷史需求，我們也不能倖免。有——當你開始經濟衰退時，你可能會有所放緩，但總的來說，我們在個人護理領域。我們的市場不提供家庭護理服務。那些往往是有彈性的。你可以看到市場以個位數下跌，以保持在中間數字。所以這真的是我們看到很多歷史的地方。我們正在銷售——我們現在正在跟踪絕對與相對。我們希望確保絕對保持我們的長期目標持平，即高於市場 200 至 300 個基點，這將使您處於中間個位數，並且您將在該水平上有所不同的範圍。

And relative, we're looking at our peer group. And many of you have coming in, you know the companies that we're trying to compare to, which is our -- the additive ingredients company and that tend to be very resilient. And I think we're seeing our performance pretty much in line with what many others in this area. Again, if we both sell a different ingredient into the same product, we should both feel the same relative performance relative to demand. So I would say, pharma, Personal Care, obviously, is the more resilient. Architectural coatings, there's a little bit more reset. It's higher volumes at the beginning of the transition, but our history has been that, that recovers very quickly because of just it's much more of a consumer-driven type portfolio. And I think so far, we're seeing that in the recovery in January. I think, as I said in the numbers, pharma continues strong. We're seeing demand -- underlying demand in Personal Care normalized. And in the Specialty Additives, where coatings is our biggest market, it is not...

相對而言，我們正在研究我們的同行群體。你們中的許多人進來了，你知道我們試圖與之比較的公司，這是我們的添加劑成分公司，而且往往非常有彈性。而且我認為我們看到我們的表現與該領域的許多其他人非常一致。同樣，如果我們都將不同的成分銷售到同一產品中，那麼我們都應該感受到與需求相關的相同相對性能。所以我想說，製藥、個人護理顯然更有彈性。建築塗料，還有一點重置。過渡初期的銷量更高，但我們的歷史一直是這樣，因為它更多的是消費者驅動型投資組合，所以恢復得非常快。我認為到目前為止，我們在 1 月份的複蘇中看到了這一點。我認為，正如我在數字中所說的那樣，製藥業繼續保持強勁勢頭。我們看到需求——個人護理的潛在需求正常化。在特種添加劑領域，塗料是我們最大的市場，但它不是……

I'm afraid, Mr. Novo has left the call for a second. Mr. Willis, will you be able to take over?

恐怕，Novo 先生已經掛斷電話了。威利斯先生，你能接手嗎？

Go ahead, Kevin. Why don't you finish up? I think we lost Guillermo.

來吧，凱文。你為什麼不完成？我想我們失去了吉列爾莫。

Yes. So just looking at the current situation, the bigger volume issues -- revenue issues for that matter were China and Europe. I mean China is -- I mean, in its own way, compartmentalized. A lot of that, we believe, is COVID-related. Early in this quarter, January certainly is less COVID, probably more Chinese New Year. So as we finish out the quarter, I think Guillermo mentioned this earlier, we'll have better visibility about what we believe is going to be the future trend in China. Guillermo, you're back.

是的。因此，從目前的情況來看，更大的數量問題——與此相關的收入問題是中國和歐洲。我的意思是中國——我的意思是，以它自己的方式，被分隔開來。我們認為，其中很多與 COVID 相關。在本季度初，1 月份肯定沒有 COVID，可能更多的是農曆新年。因此，當我們結束本季度時，我認為 Guillermo 早些時候提到過這一點，我們將更好地了解我們認為中國未來的趨勢。吉列爾莫，你回來了。

Yes. Yes, I'm back. I don't know what happened. Sorry about that.

是的。是的，我回來了。我不知道發生了什麼事。對於那個很抱歉。

Technology. Yes. I was just mentioning, China and Europe, we're really where the volume and revenue (inaudible) were for us, and again, as you mentioned, the distributor impact was a huge chunk of that. And I think as we get through the quarter, we'll have better visibility about what that's going to look like going forward.

技術。是的。我剛才提到，中國和歐洲，我們確實是我們的銷量和收入（聽不清）的地方，而且，正如你提到的，分銷商的影響是其中的很大一部分。而且我認為，隨著我們度過本季度，我們將更好地了解未來的發展情況。

And this will conclude the Q&A session of the call. I would now like to turn the conference back to Mr. Guillermo Novo for closing remarks.

這將結束電話的問答環節。我現在想把會議轉回 Guillermo Novo 先生作閉幕詞。

Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for your participation and questions. I hope you're seeing, I think, the core things that the company is focused on and controlling around pricing, around innovation, about driving our core business. The team is performing very strong. I think as we look at this transition, this reset part is creating some challenges, and we're working through them. But I think still a lot of the fundamentals as we look forward, we feel confident that we have a strong portfolio, and our portfolio itself, I think, is one of the big changes that we've had in the last few years that position us well servicing very resilient, high-quality markets that should provide us significant growth opportunities and a degree of stability, not immunity, but stability relative to other areas. So we will continue to communicate openly and transparently during this period of higher uncertainty, and we look forward to connecting with all of you in the coming weeks. So thank you for your time, and thank you, everybody. Bye.

好的。嗯，謝謝大家的參與和提問。我認為，我希望你能看到公司圍繞定價、創新和推動我們的核心業務所關注和控制的核心事物。球隊表現非常強勁。我認為，當我們審視這個轉變時，這個重置部分帶來了一些挑戰，我們正在努力克服這些挑戰。但我認為在我們展望未來時仍然有很多基本面，我們對我們擁有強大的投資組合充滿信心，我認為我們的投資組合本身是我們在過去幾年中發生的重大變化之一我們很好地服務於非常有彈性的高質量市場，這些市場應該為我們提供重要的增長機會和一定程度的穩定性，不是免疫力，而是相對於其他領域的穩定性。因此，在這個不確定性更高的時期，我們將繼續公開透明地溝通，我們期待在未來幾週內與大家聯繫。所以感謝你的時間，謝謝大家。再見。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect, and have a pleasant day.

今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過愉快的一天。