Ardmore Shipping Corp (ASC) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's second-quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

各位女士、先生，早安，歡迎參加 Ardmore Shipping 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。

Today's call is being recorded, and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, www.ardmoreshipping.com. (Operator Instructions)

今天的電話會議將進行錄音，並可於公司網站 www.ardmoreshipping.com 的投資人關係專區收聽音訊網路直播及取得簡報資料。(接線員指示)

At this time, I will turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping.

現在，我將把電話會議交給 Ardmore Shipping 執行長 Gernot Ruppelt。

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's second-quarter 2026 earnings call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

早安，歡迎參加 Ardmore Shipping 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。首先，請讓我請我們的總裁 Bart Kelleher 說明前瞻性陳述。

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the second-quarter 2026 earnings release, which is available on our website.

謝謝你，Gernot。請看投影片第 2 頁。提醒各位，我們今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中所預測者有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述所述結果出現重大差異之因素的更多資訊，載於 2026 年第二季財報新聞稿中，該新聞稿可於我們的網站取得。

And now I will turn the call back to Gernot.

現在我把電話會議交回給 Gernot。

Thank you, Bart. Let me outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on slide 3. First, I'll give you a brief overview of our second-quarter highlights and how we are executing on our capital allocation policy. I will then hand over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and update you on our financial and operating performance. Thereafter, I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions.

謝謝你，Bart。我先說明今天電話會議的流程，您可在投影片第 3 頁看到。首先，我將簡要概述第二季重點，以及我們如何落實資本配置政策。接著我會交給 Bart，他將說明市場展望並更新我們的財務與營運表現。之後，我將在開放提問前做結語。

Now turning to slide 4, covering our earnings highlights. We are pleased to report another strong quarter for Ardmore. Adjusted earnings were $48.3 million or $1.18 per share. Market conditions remained positive throughout the second quarter and into the third. In addition to long-term sectoral trends, the continued disruption in the Middle East is driving higher refining margins and long-haul volumes, boosting product tanker TCE rates.

接著看投影片第 4 頁，說明我們的獲利重點。我們很高興回報 Ardmore 再度交出強勁的一季。調整後盈餘為 4,830 萬美元，或每股 1.18 美元。市場狀況在第二季期間並延續至第三季仍維持正向。除長期產業趨勢外，中東地區持續的動盪正推升煉油利差與長程運輸量，帶動成品油輪 TCE（等效日租金）運價上升。

We are declaring a dividend of $0.79 per share, in line with our policy of paying out two-thirds of adjusted earnings. And as announced during the quarter, we exercised options on two additional Handysize tanker new buildings at the same terms as agreed at the start of the year, taking our total order to 4 vessels with deliveries beginning in late 2028.

我們宣布每股股利 0.79 美元，符合我們將調整後盈餘的三分之二配發的政策。此外，如同本季所公告，我們以年初同樣的條件行使兩艘額外 Handysize 油輪新造船的選擇權，使我們的總訂單達到 4 艘，預計自 2028 年底起交付。

Now turning to slide 5, where we highlight our TCE performance. Our second-quarter TCE reflects favorable market conditions and rates in the third quarter remained well above seasonal levels. Our MR tankers earned $51,900 per day for the second quarter. So far in the third quarter, with 45% booked, MRs earned $29,600 per day, which represents a year-over-year uplift of 20%.

接著看投影片第 5 頁，重點說明我們的 TCE 表現。我們第二季的 TCE 反映了有利的市場狀況，而第三季的運價也仍遠高於季節性水準。我們的 MR 油輪第二季每日收入為 51,900 美元。截至目前第三季在已鎖定 45% 的情況下，MR 每日收入為 29,600 美元，年增 20%。

Our chemical tankers earned $26,900 per day for the second quarter. So far in the third quarter, with 50% booked, chemical tankers earned $25,000 per day, which represents a year-over-year increase of 10%. To put things in perspective, current MR rates are, therefore, at levels nearly 3 times our operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day.

我們的化學品油輪第二季每日收入為 26,900 美元。截至目前第三季在已鎖定 50% 的情況下，化學品油輪每日收入為 25,000 美元，年增 10%。為了提供參考，因此目前 MR 運價水準接近我們每日 10,800 美元營運現金損益兩平點的 3 倍。

Moving to slide 6, where we highlight our capital allocation activity. We continue to return capital to shareholders while investing in the business. As mentioned, we contracted two additional Handysize product and chemical tanker new buildings, bringing our total order to four vessels with options for an additional two.

接著看投影片第 6 頁，重點說明我們的資本配置活動。我們在投資業務的同時，持續將資本回饋給股東。如前所述，我們簽約新增兩艘 Handysize 成品與化學品油輪新造船，使總訂單達四艘，並另有兩艘的追加選擇權。

These highly flexible assets are capable of carrying the full range of mainstream oil and refined products as well as the majority of advanced chemical cargoes, edible oils and other liquids, all fully consistent with our long-term commercial strategy and organizational capability.

這些高度彈性的資產可承運主流原油與精煉油品的全系列貨種，以及多數高階化學品貨載、食用油與其他液體，完全符合我們的長期商業策略與組織能力。

We are declaring our 15th consecutive quarterly dividend, representing a yield of approximately 20%, reflecting the doubling of our payout level as introduced earlier this year. And our operating cash breakeven remains at a low $10,800 per day, providing us with considerable financial flexibility across all market conditions.

我們宣布第 15 次連續季度股利，殖利率約 20%，反映我們今年稍早所推出的配息水準加倍措施。同時，我們的營運現金損益兩平點仍維持在每日 10,800 美元的低水準，使我們在各種市場環境下都具備相當的財務彈性。

With that, I would like to hand over to Bart to cover the market outlook.

接下來，我想把時間交給 Bart，說明市場展望。

Thanks, Gernot. Turning first to the market, starting with slide 8. Product tanker markets were exceptionally strong throughout the second quarter and have remained very firm into the third with positive underlying fundamentals amplified by the continued disruption in the Middle East. Refining margins remain elevated and benchmark crack spreads reached nearly $70 per barrel, the highest level on record.

謝謝你，Gernot。先從市場談起，請看投影片第 8 頁。成品油輪市場在第二季期間異常強勁，並在第三季持續維持非常堅挺；正向的基本面再加上中東地區持續動盪，使強勢更為放大。煉油利差仍處於高檔，基準裂解價差一度接近每桶 70 美元，創下歷史新高。

As a result, Atlantic refinery utilization is running at multiyear highs. And correspondingly, US Gulf clean product exports are at historical highs, as shown in the chart on the upper right, with cargoes continuing to travel much longer distances.

因此，大西洋地區煉油廠產能利用率正處於多年高點。相應地，如右上圖所示，美國墨西哥灣的清潔成品出口量也處於歷史高位，且貨載持續走更長的航程。

The map in the bottom right demonstrates how replacement cargoes now need to be sourced over longer-haul routes. In addition, the Panama Canal Authority is closely monitoring water levels. Further cuts to canal throughput could provide an additional tailwind for ton-mile demand.

右下方的地圖顯示，替代貨源如今需要透過更長航線來取得。此外，巴拿馬運河管理局正密切監測水位。若運河通行量進一步下調，可能為噸海里需求帶來額外助力。

Moving to slide 9. Refined product inventories have declined by nearly 100 million barrels since March. Looking ahead, this creates a need for a meaningful restocking cycle, adding an additional layer of demand on top of actual consumption. Higher oil volumes are anticipated to boost refinery throughput and support an extended period of elevated trading activity as inventories are replenished.

接著看投影片第 9 頁。自 3 月以來，精煉油品庫存已下降近 1 億桶。展望未來，這將帶來顯著的補庫循環需求，在實際消費之外再增加一層需求。預期較高的原油供應量將推升煉油量，並在庫存回補期間支撐一段延長的高交易活動。

The IEA projects significant expansion of oil supply in 2027 as non-OPEC production continues to grow. And energy security remains a key priority with inventories likely to get replenished to an even higher level. This would support sustained firm demand for product tankers well beyond the current disruption.

國際能源署（IEA）預估 2027 年石油供給將顯著擴張，因非 OPEC 產量持續成長。同時，能源安全仍是關鍵優先事項，庫存可能會回補至更高水準。這將在目前動盪結束後很長一段時間內，支撐成品油輪需求持續維持堅挺。

Moving to slide 10 and the impact of the Russian diesel export ban. As a result of domestic refinery outages and growing fuel shortages. Earlier this month, Russia imposed a full ban on diesel exports. Russian clean product exports continue to decline accordingly, as shown in the bottom left chart. Displaced buyers are sourcing replacement cargoes from elsewhere, boosting demand for the compliant fleet in an already tight market. For example, Brazilian importers are replacing Russian supply, reducing reliance on sanctioned vessels and benefiting the mainstream fleet.

接著看投影片第 10 頁，說明俄羅斯柴油出口禁令的影響。由於國內煉油廠停工與燃料短缺加劇。本月稍早，俄羅斯全面禁止柴油出口。如左下圖所示，俄羅斯清潔成品出口量也因此持續下滑。被迫轉移的買家正從其他地區採購替代貨源，在本已緊俏的市場中進一步推升合規船隊的需求。例如，巴西進口商正以其他來源取代俄羅斯供應，降低對受制裁船舶的依賴，並使主流船隊受惠。

Turning to slide 11 and long-term demand fundamentals. As we've emphasized, energy security remains a growing priority for governments worldwide. Diversification of import sources and the securing of seaborne supply chains are reinforcing long-term demand for product tankers.

接著看第 11 張投影片與長期需求基本面。如同我們一再強調，能源安全仍是全球各國政府日益重視的優先事項。進口來源多元化以及確保海運供應鏈，正在強化成品油輪的長期需求。

The structural shifts in refining capacity continue in parallel. Expansion is concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, while closures persist in Europe and the United States. This ongoing dislocation between refining hubs and major points of consumption continues to drive ton-mile demand.

同時，煉油產能的結構性轉移仍在持續。擴張主要集中在亞洲與中東，而歐洲與美國則持續關閉。煉油樞紐與主要消費地之間的持續錯位，仍在推動噸海里需求。

Furthermore, the energy transition is proceeding at a slower pace than previously anticipated. The IEA now forecasts oil demand growth through 2050. These structural dynamics underpin a constructive long-term outlook in addition to the supportive near-term dynamics we discussed.

此外，能源轉型的進程比先前預期更慢。IEA 現在預測石油需求成長將延續至 2050 年。這些結構性動態，除了我們討論過的短期利多因素外，也支撐了偏正向的長期展望。

Moving to slide 12 for the supply picture. As we have pointed out in the past, the MR fleet is the oldest it has been in decades. As the chart on the left illustrates, the average age of the fleet is nearly 14 years old, the highest this century, while the MR order book represents just 16% of the existing fleet. And if we examine the Handysize order book, it stands at just 6% with an even higher average fleet age of 18 years.

接著看第 12 張投影片的供給面。如同我們過去指出，MR 船隊是數十年來最老的一次。如左側圖表所示，船隊平均船齡接近 14 年，為本世紀最高，而 MR 訂單簿僅相當於現有船隊的 16%。若再看 Handysize 的訂單簿，僅為 6%，且船隊平均船齡更高，達 18 年。

Moving to the chart on the right. Within the next five years, half of all MRs will be over 20 years old and approaching the scrapping window. This is more than 3 times the size of the current order book and the dynamics in the Handy market are even more favorable. As a reminder, even if older vessels are not immediately scrapped in a strong market, their utilization levels decline materially as they age past 20 years.

再看右側圖表。在未來五年內，一半的 MR 將超過 20 年船齡，並接近拆船窗口。這一規模超過目前訂單簿的 3 倍，而 Handy 市場的動態更為有利。提醒一下，即使在強勁市場中老舊船舶不會立刻拆解，但當船齡超過 20 年後，其使用率也會隨著老化而顯著下降。

With that, I'd like to shift to our financial and operating performance. Turning to slide 14, where we highlight our continued focus on financial strength. Ardmore's balance sheet remains robust. Effective leverage is a modest 24%, inclusive of our forward newbuilding CapEx.

接下來我想轉到我們的財務與營運表現。請看第 14 張投影片，我們在此強調持續聚焦財務穩健。Ardmore 的資產負債表仍然強健。有效槓桿率為溫和的 24%，並已包含我們遠期新造船資本支出。

Our low operating cash breakeven of $10,800 per day or $11,700 per day, including pro rata dry dock CapEx gives us significant financial flexibility. We have nearly $300 million of undrawn revolving debt capacity, providing ample coverage for our newbuilding commitments with access to a wide range of additional financing options as well. As always, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing TCE performance, closely managing costs and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

我們的低營運現金損益兩平為每日 10,800 美元；若包含按比例分攤的進塢資本支出，則為每日 11,700 美元，這讓我們具備顯著的財務彈性。我們有接近 3 億美元尚未動用的循環債務額度，足以充分覆蓋新造船承諾，並且也可取得多元的其他融資選項。一如既往，Ardmore 將持續專注於最佳化 TCE 表現、嚴格控管成本並維持強健的資產負債表。

Turning to slide 15 for financial highlights. For the second quarter, we are reporting EBITDAR of $61.1 million, and as mentioned earlier, earnings per share of $1.18. We continue to frame EBITDAR as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. A full reconciliation is provided in the appendix alongside our third quarter guidance figures.

接著看第 15 張投影片的財務重點。第二季我們的 EBITDAR 為 6,110 萬美元；如先前提到，每股盈餘為 1.18 美元。我們持續將 EBITDAR 視為與採 IFRS 報導的同業相比時，一項重要且可比的估值指標。完整的調節表已在附錄中提供，並與我們第三季指引數據一併呈現。

Importantly, our strong operating leverage positions Ardmore to capture market volatility. Every $10,000 per day increase in TCE rates translates to nearly $2 per share in additional annual earnings.

重要的是，我們強勁的營運槓桿使 Ardmore 能夠掌握市場波動帶來的機會。TCE 費率每提高每日 10,000 美元，幾乎可轉化為每股每年增加約 2 美元的盈餘。

Moving to slide 16 for operational highlights. As a reminder, we have no planned dry dockings this year and limited activity through 2027. Existing fleet CapEx for the balance of 2026 is estimated at only $3 million. On the innovation front, we're harnessing AI and digitalization across our fleet, now including real-time propulsion automation.

接著看第 16 張投影片的營運重點。提醒一下，我們今年沒有規劃進塢，且至 2027 年的相關活動也相當有限。現有船隊在 2026 年剩餘期間的資本支出估計僅 300 萬美元。在創新方面，我們正於全船隊導入 AI 與數位化應用，目前也已包含即時推進自動化。

With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

接下來，我很高興把電話交回給 Gernot，並期待在最後回答各位的問題。

Thank you, Bart. Wrapping up then with slide 18. Ardmore is performing extremely well. We are capturing TCE rates at multiples of our cash breakeven. The market backdrop remains highly supportive, as we discussed, driven by long-term fundamentals as well as more immediate market forces.

謝謝你，Bart。接著以第 18 張投影片作結。Ardmore 的表現非常出色。我們取得的 TCE 費率是現金損益兩平的數倍。如我們所討論，市場背景仍高度有利，既受長期基本面驅動，也受到較即時的市場力量推動。

We continue to take a disciplined and deliberate approach to capital allocation, distributing two-thirds of earnings while executing on targeted and measured growth. Our decisions are and will be guided by our long-term strategy, strong corporate governance and our commitment to create value across market cycles.

我們持續以嚴謹且審慎的方式進行資本配置，在執行具針對性且節制的成長同時，分配三分之二的盈餘。我們的決策現在與未來都將以長期策略、健全的公司治理，以及在景氣循環中創造價值的承諾為指引。

And with that, we now welcome your questions.

接下來，我們歡迎各位提問。

(Operator Instructions)

(接線員指示)

Omar Nokta, Clarksons Securities.

Omar Nokta，Clarksons Securities。

Just a couple of questions from my end. And maybe just first on the Handy options. You have the four new buildings now on order after exercising those two options. Gearing at the company overall remains, I'd say, quite low and you're back to being in net cash territory.

我這邊只有幾個問題。也許先從 Handy 的選擇權談起。在行使那兩個選擇權之後，你們目前已下單四艘新造船。就整體公司而言，槓桿水準仍然，我會說，相當低，而且你們又回到淨現金的狀態。

As you kind of look forward, it seems that just the way this market is coming in, as you just said at the end of your comments there, Gernot, that you're bringing in revenues at multiple of your breakeven. It looks like you're going to continue to be in this net cash territory or at least you're on pace for that. How do you think about fleet expansion from here? You have those two options again on the Handys. What's the thought on exercising those?

往前看，似乎就如你剛才在評論結尾所說的，Gernot，隨著這個市場的走勢，你們的收入是以損益兩平的倍數在進帳。看起來你們將會持續維持在淨現金狀態，或至少正朝那個方向前進。你們如何看待接下來的船隊擴張？你們在 Handys 上還有那兩個選擇權。對於是否行使，有什麼想法？

Is there a time and when those have to be exercised? And then just in general, how are you thinking about further expansion?

這些選擇權是否有必須行使的期限與時間點？另外更一般性地，你們如何思考進一步擴張？

Yes. Omar, great question. Thank you. Definitely, we do like the ships that we've ordered. We like the design.

是的。Omar，問得很好。謝謝。我們確實很喜歡我們所訂購的船。我們喜歡這個設計。

We also see value in the prices we agreed. And of course, we do like the optionality also that they provide. Options are options. So we'll continue to assess, of course, the economic rationale they're declarable later this summer.

我們也認為我們談定的價格具備價值。當然，我們也喜歡它們所提供的選擇性。選擇權就是選擇權。因此我們會持續評估其經濟合理性；它們可在今年夏末宣告行使。

Why do we like them? Well, the fundamental backdrop, we believe, is quite positive and how these assets, in particular, fit into this. If you think about what we discussed here, we're tracking long-term oil demand growth. Investment in fossil energy has been consistently on the rise since that dip we saw during COVID. And it looks that we also have the oil supply to really match it.

我們為什麼喜歡它們？嗯，我們認為基本面背景相當正面，而這些資產，特別是，如何融入其中。如果你回想我們在這裡討論的內容，我們正在追蹤長期石油需求成長。自從我們在 COVID 期間看到那次下滑之後，對化石能源的投資一直持續上升。而且看起來我們也確實有足夠的石油供給來與之匹配。

Adding to that is this theme around energy security, which creates a whole different set of needs, which is benefiting really the whole energy oil supply chain and tankers included. But it's, of course, not just about fossils when you think about energy security because all of a sudden, diversification of your energy sources becomes very much part of that theme of supply chain resilience, which I think is top of the agenda for enterprise and state actors alike.

此外還有圍繞能源安全的這個主題，這會產生一整套不同的需求，真正讓整個能源與石油供應鏈（包括油輪）受惠。但當你想到能源安全時，當然不僅僅是化石能源，因為突然之間，能源來源多元化就成為供應鏈韌性這個主題的重要一環，而我認為這已是企業與國家行為者共同的首要議題。

So these particular assets really provide us maximum optionality, not just in the near-term trading performance because they are so versatile and can optimize TCE performance, but they really give you a wide range of strategic direction, whether it's mainstream refined oil products, whether it's crude oil and dirty products, certainly a wide range of chemical products, edible oils and other really interesting liquids as well.

因此，這些特定資產為我們提供了最大的選擇性，不僅是在短期交易表現上，因為它們非常多用途，能夠最佳化 TCE 表現；同時也確實讓你擁有廣泛的策略方向選擇，無論是主流的精煉油品、原油與重質油品，當然也包括各式各樣的化學品、食用油，以及其他同樣非常有意思的液體貨種。

And there's liquid markets for all of these in itself, the Handy market, of course, is also quite liquid. It's a good size. And there's a high degree of overlap with what we're doing on the MRs as well. So our broader trading footprint and our commercial strategy. So that's the strategic rationale.

而且這些貨種本身都有液態市場；Handy 市場當然也相當具流動性。它的規模不錯。並且與我們在 MR 船型上所做的事情也有高度重疊。因此，這也契合我們更廣泛的交易版圖與商業策略。這就是策略上的理由。

That's the fundamental and market outlook rationale. And then when it comes to capital allocation, very neatly fits into how we continue to balance, of course, the continued rationale to reinvest in the business, continue to embrace opportunities for selective and well-measured growth, but at the same time -- while at the same time, returning capital to shareholders and maintaining responsible debt levels. That, of course, is something we continue to look on a dynamic basis as well.

這是基本面與市場展望層面的理由。接著談到資本配置，它非常貼合我們如何持續取得平衡：一方面，持續有理由再投資於業務、把握選擇性且審慎衡量的成長機會；但同時——在同時——回饋資本給股東並維持負責任的負債水準。當然，這也是我們會以動態方式持續檢視的事項。

Last year, at around this time, we saw a lot of value in secondhand values that had dropped significantly, acted on those very decisively. Those would have appreciated by 30%, 35% in value since and are happily trading in our fleet. At the same time, we saw now at the start of the year, really an opportune time to invest on a more forward-looking basis in the start of this set of -- at the moment for new buildings with options that are options that we'll continue to assess as we move along.

去年大約這個時候，我們看到二手船價大幅下跌，存在很大的價值，因此非常果斷地採取行動。自那之後，這些資產的價值已上漲 30%、35%，目前也很順利地在我們的船隊中營運交易。同時，我們也在今年年初看到一個相當合適的時點，以更前瞻的角度投資於這一批——目前是新造船，並附帶選擇權；這些選擇權我們會在推進過程中持續評估。

Okay. And maybe just one -- another question, then I'll pass it back. It's a bit more kind of on the market. And you mentioned in your answer just now a bit of sort of the diversification that we're seeing in sources of oil. How are you kind of seeing things develop here?

好的。也許再問一個——另一個問題，然後我就交回去。這比較偏市場面。你剛才在回答中提到，我們看到石油來源正在出現某種程度的多元化。你怎麼看這裡的發展？

Obviously, it's been a very volatile year or moves closed, it reopened. Now it's back to closed potentially, you have the Red Sea as a potential risk for transit, which had already been there, but maybe a bit more heightened now.

顯然，今年非常波動——航道一度封閉，之後又重新開放。現在可能又回到封閉；紅海也成為潛在的通行風險，這個風險本來就存在，但現在可能更為升高。

Have you seen any sort of immediate response in the product market as to the latest developments there on the geopolitical front? And then also, how do you think about where MR rates can be as we move forward here over the next few months?

就最新的地緣政治發展而言，你是否看到成品油市場有任何即時反應？另外，展望未來幾個月，你如何看待 MR 運價可能走到什麼水準？

I believe you're touching on a great point here where markets continue to be very much in motion and probably more than we can kind of really verbalize in the presentation like this. But the status quo is there is no status quo.

我認為你點出了一個很重要的觀點：市場持續處於變動之中，可能比我們在這樣的簡報裡能夠真正用言語表達的還要多。但現狀是：沒有現狀可言。

And even the events of the last 24 hours and the last few days and weeks, of course, always trigger reactions in the underlying commodity pricing for oil and of course, the underlying oil products as well. And with that relative price point creates regional arbitrage, creates arbitrage within the system as well. And we certainly have seen freight react as well.

而且即便是過去 24 小時、以及過去幾天與幾週的事件，當然都會引發對油品等大宗商品底層定價的反應，也包括各類成品油。而相對價格水準會形成區域套利，也會在系統內部形成套利。我們也確實看到運費有所反應。

An important point to make is that I think there is a lot going on beyond the Middle East as well. Of course, there's the long-term fundamentals that we discussed here, not just on the demand side, but also on the supply side. But US Gulf refineries cranking out product at record levels refining margins really high.

我認為需要強調的一點是：除了中東之外，還有很多事情正在發生。當然，有我們在這裡討論的長期基本面，不僅是需求端，也包括供給端。但美國墨西哥灣沿岸的煉油廠正以創紀錄的水準生產成品，煉油利差非常高。

At the same time, I think we touched on briefly is the situation with the Panama Canal, but I believe it is somewhat overlooked, whereby we've already had some initial signals from the Panama Canal Authority that they might actually interrupt some of the transit. Now that hasn't happened yet.

同時，我想我們也簡要提到巴拿馬運河的情況，但我認為這在某種程度上被忽視了：我們已經從巴拿馬運河管理局收到一些初步訊號，他們可能實際上會中斷部分通行。目前這還沒有發生。

But just speaking with a market participant on this recently, if we continue to see really low rainfalls here from August through October, if there's going to be a super El Nino, some of this will really only play out on a forward basis, where if you're entering the traditional dry season in January with already low water levels, this is really only going to kick in, in Q2 2027. So I believe there's really a multitude of factors that really can continue to drive volatility in freight to really a wide range of outcomes.

但我最近與一位市場參與者談到此事時，如果我們在 8 月到 10 月期間持續看到降雨量非常低，若又出現超級聖嬰現象，其中一些影響將只會在更前瞻的層面上逐步顯現：也就是說，如果你在 1 月進入傳統乾季時水位已經偏低，這真正的影響可能要到 2027 年第二季才會開始發酵。因此，我認為確實有多重因素可能持續推動運費波動，導致非常廣泛的結果區間。

Yes. No, certainly a lot of moving parts.

是的。沒錯，確實有很多變動因素。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

We have no further questions. This does conclude your conference call for today. We thank you for participating. And at this time, we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

我們沒有進一步的問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。此時也請各位掛斷電話線。