Ardmore Shipping Corp (ASC) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's second-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded, and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, ardmoreshipping.com. (Operator Instructions) A replay of the conference call will be accessible through August 6 by dialing 1 (888) 660-6345 or 1 (646) 517-4150 and entering passcode 24528.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Ardmore Shipping 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議將被錄音，音訊網路直播和簡報可在公司網站 ardmoreshipping.com 的「投資者關係」版塊取得。 （操作員指示）8 月 6 日前，撥打 1 (888) 660-6345 或 1 (646) 517-4150 並輸入密碼 24528 即可收聽電話會議重播。

At this time, I will turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Ardmore Shipping 執行長 Gernot Ruppelt。

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's second quarter 2025 earnings call. First, let me ask our President, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

早安，歡迎參加 Ardmore Shipping 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。首先，我請我們的總裁巴特‧凱萊赫 (Bart Kelleher) 討論前瞻性陳述。

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the second quarter 2025 earnings release, which is available on our website.

謝謝，Gernot。翻到幻燈片 2。請容許我提醒您，我們今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的因素的更多信息，包含在 2025 年第二季度收益報告中，該報告可在我們的網站上查閱。

And now I will turn the call back over to Gernot.

現在我將把電話轉回給 Gernot。

Thank you, Bart. Please allow me to outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on slide 3. First, I'll give you the usual snapshot of second quarter highlights, and then we will call out some transactions we executed since our last call. I will then hand over the call to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and provide an update on our financial and operating performance. Thereafter, I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions.

謝謝你，巴特。請容許我概述一下今天電話會議的形式，您可以在投影片 3 上看到。首先，我將向您提供第二季亮點的常規快照，然後我們將列出自上次通話以來執行的一些交易。然後，我將把電話交給巴特，他將介紹市場前景並提供我們財務和營運績效的最新情況。隨後，我將結束演講，然後開始提問。

Turning first to slide 4. We're pleased to report adjusted earnings for the second quarter of $9 million or $0.22 per share. TCE rates have been increasing over the course of the year. And in the third quarter, typically a softer period, we're seeing continued momentum with even higher bookings to date. Our MRs earned $23,500 per day for the second quarter and $25,500 so far in the third quarter with 50% booked.

先翻到幻燈片 4。我們很高興地報告第二季調整後的收益為 900 萬美元，即每股 0.22 美元。TCE 費率在過去一年中一直在上升。第三季通常是較為疲軟的時期，但我們看到了持續的成長勢頭，迄今為止的預訂量甚至更高。我們的 MR 在第二季度每天的收入為 23,500 美元，在第三季迄今為止每天的收入為 25,500 美元，預訂率為 50%。

Meanwhile, our Chemical tankers earned $20,400 per day for the second quarter and $21,700 for the third quarter with 65% booked. Overall, these rates reflect levels that are about to double our cash breakeven. Market dynamics remain favorable driven by stronger refining margins, OPEC plus production increases and heightened geopolitical factors. In addition, long-term industry fundamentals remain robust, which we will cover in more detail later.

同時，我們的化學品油輪第二季的日收入為 20,400 美元，第三季的日收入為 21,700 美元，預訂率為 65%。總體而言，這些利率反映的水平即將使我們的現金損益平衡點翻倍。受煉油利潤率提高、石油輸出國組織（OPEC）產量增加以及地緣政治因素加劇的推動，市場動態仍然保持良好。此外，長期產業基本面依然強勁，我們稍後將詳細介紹。

Moving to slide 5. Since our last earnings call, we executed well-timed transactions that enhance our strong performance and earnings power while opportunistically cementing earnings quality. We agreed to acquire three high-quality MR tankers in the second-hand market. All vessels were built in Korea, and we expect to take delivery this quarter. We achieved prices that are attractive relative to applicable benchmarks, reflecting outmost disciplined and deliberate approach to fleet growth. We also closed on a comprehensive refinancing with leading banks at favorable terms.

移至投影片 5。自上次收益電話會議以來，我們執行了適時的交易，增強了我們的強勁業績和盈利能力，同時抓住機會鞏固了盈利質量。我們同意在二手市場收購三艘高品質的MR油輪。所有船隻均在韓國建造，我們預計將於本季交付。我們實現了相對於適用基準而言頗具吸收性的價格，體現了我們對船隊成長採取極其嚴謹和謹慎的態度。我們也以優惠條件與主要銀行完成了全面再融資。

Through this refinancing, we consolidated our existing debt into a single, fully revolving credit facility, $350 million in total. This enhances our financial flexibility while supporting low cash breakeven. In addition, while our predominant trading strategy remains focused on the spot market, we dynamically executed on selected quality fixed rate opportunities.

透過此次再融資，我們將現有債務合併為一筆總額為 3.5 億美元的單一、完全循環的信貸額度。這增強了我們的財務靈活性，同時支援低現金損益平衡。此外，雖然我們主要的交易策略仍集中在現貨市場，但我們會動態地執行精選的優質固定利率機會。

For one of our 25,000 ton Chemical tankers, we secured a three year time charter at $19,250 per day. The counterparty is a top-tier chemical producer.

對於我們的一艘 25,000 噸化學品油輪，我們簽訂了一份為期三年的定期租船合同，租金為每天 19,250 美元。交易對手是頂級化學品生產商。

And to give you a bit of context, we achieved essentially what is a three-year MR rate, which goes without saying is a vessel twice the size. On a more tactical level, we opportunistically increased our short-term coverage, adding fixed rate charters on two additional MR tankers. This brings our MR fixed rate coverage to four vessels at an average rate of $22,500 per day of varying durations between 6 and 12 months.

為了給您一些背景信息，我們基本上實現了三年的 MR 率，不用說，這是兩倍大小的船隻。在更具戰術性的層面上，我們抓住機會增加了短期承保範圍，增加了另外兩艘 MR 油輪的固定費率租船合約。這使得我們的 MR 固定費率保險涵蓋四艘船舶，平均費率為每天 22,500 美元，期限為 6 至 12 個月不等。

Turning to Slide 6. where we highlight our capital allocation policy and how we are delivering across all strategic priorities. We continue to balance growth, reinvestment in our fleet and capital return to shareholders while maintaining low debt levels. We declared our 11 consecutive dividend since the reinitiation of our dividend policy in 2022. We just mentioned our acquisition of three modern MR tankers and we're almost done with our Chemical tanker recoating project, which we discussed previously. Five of the six recoatings are completed with the final vessel scheduled for completion this quarter. We are already seeing results for the ships on the water, accessing premium cargoes and boosting earnings power.

轉到投影片 6，我們重點介紹了我們的資本配置政策以及我們如何實現所有策略重點。我們持續平衡成長、船隊再投資和股東資本回報，同時維持低債務水準。自 2022 年重新啟動股利政策以來，我們已連續 11 次宣布派發股利。我們剛剛提到我們收購了三艘現代 MR 油輪，而我們之前討論過的化學油輪重塗項目也即將完成。在六艘船的重新塗層工作中，有五艘已經完成，最後一艘船計劃於本季完工。我們已經看到了水上船舶的成果，獲得了優質貨物並提高了盈利能力。

With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart.

說完這些，我想把它交給巴特。

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide 8 and the market outlook, starting with industry fundamentals. With OPEC+ ramping up supply, an additional 2.5 million barrels of oil per day are forecast to hit the water by the end of September. And at present, low diesel inventories, particularly in Europe, have already driven up crack spreads, boosting trading activity and incentivizing increased refinery production.

謝謝，Gernot。轉到投影片 8 和市場展望，從產業基本面開始。隨著 OPEC+ 增加供應，預計到 9 月底，每天將有額外 250 萬桶石油流入海中。目前，柴油庫存較低（尤其是歐洲的庫存），已經推高了裂解價差，刺激了交易活動，並刺激了煉油廠產量的增加。

In addition, the EU has further ramped up sanctions, creating market inefficiencies and effectively reducing vessel supply. This quarter has also been marked by continued examples of geopolitical disruption. Furthermore, fresh Chinese export quotas for refined products are anticipated to be announced in the near term. Following a significant ramp-up in exports in July, the current quotas are expected to be fully utilized earlier than normal.

此外，歐盟進一步加強制裁力度，導致市場效率低下，船舶供應量有效減少。本季也出現了持續不斷的地緣政治動盪。此外，預計中國將於近期公佈新的成品油出口配額。隨著7月出口大幅增加，預計現有配額將比正常情況更早用完。

Turning to slide 9, where we examine the ongoing evolution of the global refinery landscape and its positive impact on product tanker demand. The refinery base continues to shift. Refining and petrochemical capacity is increasingly concentrated in the East, while closures persist in the West, driving ton-mile growth. As shown in the table on the upper right, new capacity additions in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, sharply contrast with recent closures in the US and Europe, adding to import volumes and long-haul trade flows. A clear example is playing out in California.

翻到投影片 9，我們來研究全球煉油廠格局的持續演變及其對成品油油輪需求的正面影響。煉油基地繼續轉移。煉油和石化產能日益集中在東部，而西部的產能關閉持續存在，推動了噸英里的成長。如右上表所示，亞洲、中東和非洲新增運力與美國和歐洲近期關閉的運能形成鮮明對比，增加了進口量和長途貿易流量。加州就是一個明顯的例子。

Local refinery shutdowns are leading to record high imports, in fact, up 25% from prior peak levels. The chart on the lower right emphasizes the ton-mile component. Refined products that would have been produced and consumed locally on the West Coast must now be imported on lengthy transpacific voyages. This trend is anticipated to accelerate in the near term with additional refinery closures planned for the US West Coast over the next 12 months.

當地煉油廠關閉導致進口量創歷史新高，實際上比之前的峰值增加了 25%。右下角的圖表強調了噸英里部分。原本在西海岸生產和消費的精煉產品現在必須透過漫長的跨太平洋航行進口。隨著未來 12 個月美國西海岸計劃關閉更多煉油廠，預計這一趨勢將在短期內加速。

On slide 10, we contrast the aging MR fleet with the decreasing order book, highlighting the favorable supply dynamics. Starting with our favorite chart on the left, the evolution of the MR fleet over time. As we have discussed on previous calls, the MR fleet is the oldest it's been in this century. And with the lack of new build orders this year, the order book is now declining and currently represents just 14% of the overall MR fleet.

在第 10 張投影片上，我們將老化的 MR 車隊與減少的訂單進行對比，突顯了有利的供應動態。從左側我們最喜歡的圖表開始，MR 船隊隨時間的發展。正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的，MR 船隊是本世紀最古老的船隊。由於今年新船訂單不足，訂單量正在下降，目前僅佔 MR 船隊總量的 14%。

Moving to the chart on the right, the aging fleet is 3 times larger than the current order book. Past this fleet will be older than 20 years by the end of the decade.

移至右側圖表，老化船隊規模是目前訂單規模的 3 倍。到本世紀末，這支艦隊的服役年資將超過20年。

Now moving to slide 11, looking at the broader product tanker sector, it's important to highlight the positive impact of the low Aframax order book. LR2s have been exiting the product trade shifting into the crude trade as the Aframax fleet continues to shrink. This is not a temporary shift. More than 50% of the Aframax fleet is now over 15 years old and there are essentially no new orders for uncoated Aframaxes. The trend is already very evident today.

現在翻到第 11 張幻燈片，看看更廣泛的成品油輪領域，重要的是要強調阿芙拉型油輪訂單量低的正面影響。隨著阿芙拉型油輪船隊規模不斷縮小，LR2 型油輪已退出成品油貿易，轉而進入原油貿易。這並不是暫時的轉變。目前，超過 50% 的阿芙拉型油輪船隊船齡已超過 15 年，基本上沒有未塗層阿芙拉型油輪的新訂單。如今這一趨勢已經非常明顯。

Looking at the chart on the right, the percentage of LR2s in the clean trade has declined over the last several years.

從右側的圖表可以看出，在過去幾年裡，LR2 在清潔交易中的比例有所下降。

Now moving to slide 13. Turning our attention to Ardmore's financial performance, we continue to maintain our strong financial position. We successfully refinanced our existing debt facilities into a single, fully revolving credit facility enhancing our financial flexibility and supporting our low cash breakeven.

現在轉到第 13 張投影片。將注意力轉向阿德莫爾的財務表現，我們繼續保持強勁的財務狀況。我們成功地將現有債務融資為單一、完全循環的信貸額度，增強了我們的財務靈活性並支持我們的低現金盈虧平衡。

As highlighted in the table on the left, the terms are quite attractive including a margin of 1.8% and tenor of six years. We're showing quarter-ending figures as well as pro forma that include the three vessels acquisitions. As you'll see, given the notably lower margin and modest leverage level, we continue to maintain our low cash breakeven.

如左表所示，這些條款相當有吸引力，包括 1.8% 的保證金和六年的期限。我們展示的是季度末數據以及包括三艘船舶收購在內的預測數據。如您所見，鑑於明顯較低的利潤率和適度的槓桿水平，我們繼續保持較低的現金損益平衡。

Turning to slide 14 for financial highlights. For the second quarter, we reported EBITDA of $22.4 million, and as mentioned earlier, earnings per share of $0.22. We continue to frame EBITDA as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. Full reconciliation details can be found in the appendix on slide 24.

請翻到第 14 張投影片查看財務亮點。我們報告的第二季息稅折舊攤提前利潤 (EBITDA) 為 2,240 萬美元，如前所述，每股收益為 0.22 美元。我們繼續將 EBITDA 作為與採用 IFRS 報告的同業進行比較的重要估值指標。完整的對帳詳情可在第 24 頁投影片的附錄中找到。

As noted in the chart on the bottom left, we continue our downward trajectory on cash breakeven, achieving this in an elevated interest rate environment and when accounting for the recent vessel acquisitions. This cost discipline in tandem with our significant operating leverage strongly positions Ardmore to take advantage of market volatility. Also please refer to slide 25 in the appendix for our third quarter guidance numbers.

如左下角圖所示，我們的現金損益平衡繼續呈下降趨勢，這是在利率上升的環境下以及考慮到最近的船舶收購後實現的。這種成本控制與我們顯著的營運槓桿相結合，使阿德莫爾能夠充分利用市場波動。另請參閱附錄中的第 25 張投影片，以了解我們第三季的指導資料。

Moving to slide 15 for fleet operations. The majority of this year's dry docking work is now behind us, and we have limited dockings in the years ahead. The company stands to benefit from increased revenue days and enhanced earnings power. Dry docking and the related capital expenditures for 2025 are now projected to be $35 million to $38 million.

移至投影片 15，了解艦隊運作。今年的大部分乾船塢工作已經完成，未來幾年我們的乾船塢工作將會受到限制。該公司將從增加的收入天數和增強的盈利能力中受益。目前預計 2025 年幹船塢和相關資本支出為 3,500 萬至 3,800 萬美元。

As a reminder approximately half of this capital outlay is related to tank coatings and efficiency upgrade projects. This also includes the first special survey for the 2020 build vessel we are acquiring this quarter.

提醒一下，這筆資本支出中約有一半與油箱塗層和效率升級項目有關。這也包括我們本季收購的2020年建造船舶的首次特別調查。

In addition, we're continuing to invest in digitalization tools and AI and are seeing benefits across our fleet and shoreside operations. Finally, our on-hire availability was a strong 99% in the second quarter.

此外，我們將繼續投資數位化工具和人工智慧，並在我們的船隊和岸上營運中看到效益。最後，我們第二季的租用率高達 99%。

Moving to slide 16. Here, we bring our nearly completed MarineLine project to life. As you can see in the shiny pictures on the bottom left we've got some really fresh high-spec tank coatings that are enhancing our trading flexibility and attracting premium cargoes. These vessels haven't been out of the yard for very long and we've already secured some really exciting voyages, achieving strong TCE premiums.

移至投影片 16。在這裡，我們將即將完成的 MarineLine 專案變為現實。正如您在左下角的閃亮圖片中看到的那樣，我們擁有一些非常新穎的高規格油罐塗料，這些塗料增強了我們的貿易靈活性並吸引了優質貨物。這些船隻開出船廠的時間並不長，我們已經完成了一些非常令人興奮的航行，並獲得了豐厚的 TCE 保費。

In fact, with our new coatings, our vessels are practically behaving close to stainless steel tankers but at a lower capital cost based on current market values. In addition to this, we're benefiting from shorter tank cleaning times, improving asset utilization and reducing fuel consumption.

事實上，採用我們的新塗層，我們的船舶實際上表現得接近不銹鋼油輪，但根據當前市場價值，資本成本較低。除此之外，我們也受惠於更短的油箱清洗時間、更高的資產利用率和更低的燃料消耗。

With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

說完這些，我很高興將電話交還給 Gernot，並期待最後回答任何問題。

Great. Thank you, Bart. Moving to slide 18 allow me to summarize three key points. Earnings have continued to strengthen through the first half of 2025 and into the third quarter, reflecting favorable market conditions. We executed a range of well-timed transactions and initiatives that further enhance our strong performance and earnings power while maintaining our financial strength and guided by our strong governance and consistent approach to capital allocation Ardmore continues to deliver on its strategy to create long-term value through market cycles.

偉大的。謝謝你，巴特。請容許我轉到第 18 張投影片，總結三個重點。2025 年上半年至第三季度，獲利持續增強，反映出有利的市場條件。我們執行了一系列適時的交易和舉措，進一步增強了我們的強勁業績和盈利能力，同時保持了我們的財務實力，並在我們強有力的治理和一致的資本配置方法的指導下，阿德莫爾繼續履行其通過市場週期創造長期價值的戰略。

And with that, we now welcome your questions.

現在，我們歡迎您提問。

(Operator instructions) Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

（操作員指示）奧馬爾·諾克塔（Omar Nokta），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Thank you for the update and congrats on the transaction to buy those MRs. Clearly, the company has been in a net cash position for the past several quarters. You're buying these MRs and it's not really going to stress your balance sheet. Obviously, you need to take these ships in transition them in and get them going. But in general, is there a target leverage you want to get to in a perfect world, given in this environment, assuming nothing changes from here. Is there a certain net leverage ratio you'd like to get to?

感謝您的更新，並祝賀您成功購買這些 MR。顯然，該公司過去幾季一直處於淨現金狀況。您購買這些 MR 並不會對您的資產負債表造成壓力。顯然，您需要讓這些船隻過渡並啟動它們。但總的來說，在這種環境下，假設從現在開始沒有任何變化，那麼在完美的世界中，您是否想要達到目標槓桿率？您希望達到某個特定的淨槓桿率嗎？

I'll let Bart comment on that in a second, Omar, and thank you for joining. But I think we're really focusing on value and being opportunistic on all the avenues of capital allocation. We saw great value in these three ships, quality build, top yard, attractive prices. And we demonstrated that we were able to be patient as we felt the markets were going through a notable correction over the past year. And now certainly, at an opportune time, we were able to be very decisive.

奧馬爾，我會讓巴特對此發表評論，謝謝你的加入。但我認為我們真正關注的是價值，並在所有資本配置途徑上抓住機會。我們認為這三艘船具有很高的價值，建造品質優良，船廠一流，價格誘人。我們證明我們能夠保持耐心，因為我們感覺到市場在過去一年中經歷了明顯的調整。現在，我們當然可以在適當的時機採取非常果斷的行動。

And ultimately, that's what we're looking for. And for us, of course, having the financial flexibility to do so is important. We're not trying to optimize for a specific growth target. We're under no rush. We have an organization that's performing to a very high standard. It's very scalable but at the same time, it's ultimately value that we're looking for, and that will determine our future capital allocation choices.

最終，這就是我們所尋求的。當然，對我們來說，擁有財務彈性非常重要。我們並沒有試圖針對特定的成長目標進行最佳化。我們並不著急。我們的組織績效非常高。它具有很強的可擴展性，但同時，它最終是我們尋求的價值，這將決定我們未來的資本配置選擇。

And I'd just add in, Omar, we really look at debt through the cycle. I'd say moderate debt levels are a guiding principle. I think to what you're hinting at, certainly, it is situational in terms of market conditions and our view of forward market conditions, but maintaining some dry powder to be opportunistic and build value all while maintaining the low breakeven are things that are really important that are in focus.

我想補充一點，奧馬爾，我們確實會透過整個週期來審視債務。我認為適度的債務水平是一個指導原則。我認為，對於您所暗示的，當然，這取決於市場條件和我們對未來市場條件的看法，但保持一些乾粉以抓住機會並創造價值，同時保持較低的盈虧平衡，這些才是真正重要的事情，也是我們關注的重點。

That's helpful perspective. And maybe perhaps we're not just a bit more kind of like a market-related question. And obviously, a lot of moving parts to this, but recently, we've been seeing the US stepping up pressure on Russia and using tariffs perhaps is a bit of a deterrent for, say, Chinese or Indian refiners to buy those barrels and refine it. How would you -- as you see this and things are still to develop, but how do you see this kind of affecting the product market if things really start to take shape on that front?

這是一個很有幫助的觀點。或許我們討論的不僅是與市場相關的問題。顯然，這其中有很多因素，但最近，我們看到美國加大對俄羅斯的壓力，並使用關稅，這或許會對中國或印度煉油廠購買和提煉這些石油產生一定威懾作用。您會如何看待這種情況，事情還有待發展，但是如果事情真的開始成形，您認為這會對產品市場產生什麼影響？

Yes. I think there's a few different things in play. I think markets are definitely getting a stronger sense of direction. We have gone through a period of a risk aversion at the earlier part of the year. And I think that's not overcome by sort of a snapback in activity.

是的。我認為有幾件不同的事情正在發生。我認為市場肯定正在獲得更強的方向感。今年早些時候，我們經歷了一段避險時期。我認為這種現象無法透過活動的反彈來克服。

Inventories need to be rebuilt. There's this catch-up phase in trading activity that's playing out now in the third quarter. And of course, we're not far from sort of a structurally stronger winter. I would say that without kind of trying to unpack the many layers of the geopolitical landscape, we continue to, of course, monitor very closely as long as we continue to see reshift in trade, reshift in regulation that creates constant reshift in trade flows as well.

需要重建庫存。目前，第三季的交易活動正進入追趕階段。當然，我們距離一個結構性更強的冬天已經不遠了。我想說的是，我們無需試圖解開地緣政治格局的諸多層面，只要我們繼續看到貿易的重新轉變、監管的重新轉變，從而導致貿易流的不斷重新轉變，我們當然會繼續密切關注。

And that sort of volatility is something that benefits the overall product tanker market. And the way we operate the business, I believe we're perfectly geared for that because it's always the question how can we best position ourselves in those shifting trade flows.

這種波動對整個成品油輪市場有利。我相信，我們經營業務的方式已經完全適應了這一點，因為我們始終要問，如何在不斷變化的貿易流中定位自己。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to management for closing remarks. Please continue.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉給管理階層，請他們作結束語。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. We understand it's a busy reporting day for shipping and the broader general transportation sector. So we look forward to further Q&A in follow-up meetings. And thank you, all set for now on the call.

謝謝您，接線生。我們知道，對於航運和更廣泛的一般運輸業來說，這是一個繁忙的報告日。因此，我們期待在後續會議中進行進一步的問答。謝謝大家，現在通話已經準備就緒。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。