Ardmore Shipping Corp (ASC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the Investor Relations section of the company's website, ardmoreshipping.com. (Operator Instructions) A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next 2 weeks by dialing 1-877-344-7529 or 1-412-317-0088 and entering passcode 312-65-95. At this time, I will turn the call over to Anthony Gurnee, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Ardmore Shipping 2023 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議已被錄音，您可以在公司網站 ardmoreshipping.com 的投資者關係部分找到音訊網路廣播和簡報。 （操作員指示）在接下來的兩週內，您可以隨時撥打 1-877-344-7529 或 1-412-317-0088 並輸入密碼 312-65-95 收聽電話會議重播。現在，我將把電話轉給阿德莫爾航運公司執行長安東尼·格尼 (Anthony Gurnee)。

Good morning, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. First, let me ask our Chief Financial Officer, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

早安，歡迎參加 Ardmore Shipping 2023 年第一季財報電話會議。首先，請容許我請我們的財務長 Bart Kelleher 討論前瞻性陳述。

Thanks, Tony. Turning to Slide 2. Please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the first quarter 2023 earnings release, which is available on our website. And now I'll turn the call back over to Tony.

謝謝，托尼。翻到幻燈片 2。請容許我提醒您，我們今天的討論包含前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中的預測有重大差異。有關可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的因素的更多信息，包含在 2023 年第一季度收益報告中，該報告可在我們的網站上查閱。現在我將把電話轉回給托尼。

Thank you, Bart. Let me first outline the format for today's call. To begin with, I'll discuss highlights, market outlook and updates on our capital allocation policy. After which Bart will provide an update on product and chemical tanker fundamentals and our financial performance. And then I'll conclude the presentation and open up the call for questions.

謝謝你，巴特。讓我先概述一下今天電話會議的形式。首先，我將討論重點、市場前景和我們的資本配置政策的最新情況。之後，Bart 將提供有關產品和化學品油輪基本面以及我們的財務業績的最新資訊。然後我將結束演講並開始提問。

So, turning first to Slide 4 for highlights. We've seen strong momentum and positive volatility being sustained in the first quarter and into the second quarter with TCE rates remaining at extremely elevated levels compared with historical norms. First quarter results reflect continued strength in the product and chemical tanker markets, with adjusted earnings of $43 million or $1.04 per share, equating to an annualized book return on equity of 35%. On a TCE basis, our MRs earned $37,500 per day for the first quarter. And so far, we're running at 34,000 per day for the second quarter with 50% booked.

因此，首先請翻到投影片 4 看重點。我們看到第一季和第二季保持了強勁的勢頭和積極的波動，TCE 利率與歷史正常水平相比仍處於極高的水平。第一季業績反映出產品和化學品油輪市場的持續強勁，調整後收益為 4,300 萬美元或每股 1.04 美元，相當於年化帳面股本回報率為 35%。以 TCE 計算，我們的 MR 第一季每天的收入為 37,500 美元。到目前為止，第二季我們的日均客流量為 34,000 人次，預訂率為 50%。

Our chemical tankers on a capital adjusted basis earned $32,000 per day for the first quarter and are running at $38,000 for the second quarter, also with 50% booked. Ardmore continues to deliver on its capital allocation policy, and we're very pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per share, representing one-third of adjusted earnings and equating to an annualized current yield of approximately 10%. Overall, Ardmore is benefiting from a strategic focus and optimization of its top trading performance, while tightly managing costs and maintaining a low breakeven level of $14,500 per day. Importantly, our full fleet exposure to the spot market, including our time charter [in] vessels, allows Ardmore to fully capture the benefits of the currently strong market. And as a final note, we highlight the operating leverage we have to charter rates, where every $10,000 per day increase in rates results in an incremental $2.30 per share in annualized earnings.

我們的化學品油輪以資本調整後計算，第一季的日收益為 32,000 美元，第二季的日收益為 38,000 美元，預訂率也為 50%。阿德莫爾繼續履行其資本配置政策，我們非常高興地宣布每股 0.35 美元的季度現金股息，佔調整後收益的三分之一，相當於年化當前收益率約為 10%。總體而言，阿德莫爾受益於戰略重點和頂級交易業績的優化，同時嚴格管理成本並保持每天 14,500 美元的低盈虧平衡水平。重要的是，我們的整個船隊都參與現貨市場，包括我們的定期租船，這使得阿德莫爾能夠充分利用當前強勁的市場帶來的好處。最後要強調的是，我們強調了我們對租船費率的經營槓桿作用，費率每天每增加 10,000 美元，年化收益就會增加 2.30 美元/股。

Moving to Slide 5. The outlook for product and chemical tankers remains very compelling in a tightly balanced market. The EU refined product embargo, which came into effect on February 5, has resulted in a bifurcation of the product tanker fleet, driving route inefficiencies and thus higher ton-mile demand. Notably, the number of product tankers in the Russian trade increased by 50% to over 330 and it is worth emphasizing that there is a stickiness to this trade with these tankers typically not being able to reenter the global fleet, at least not easily. We're also seeing China's economic recovery gaining strength with GDP growing by 4.5% in the first quarter and expected to accelerate further through the year.

移至投影片 5。在緊密平衡的市場中，產品和化學品油輪的前景仍然非常引人注目。 2 月 5 日生效的歐盟成品油禁運導致成品油油船隊分裂，造成航線效率低下，從而導致噸英里需求增加。值得注意的是，俄羅斯貿易中的成品油輪數量增加了 50%，達到 330 多艘，值得強調的是，這種貿易具有黏性，這些油輪通常無法重新加入全球船隊，至少不容易。我們也看到中國經濟復甦勢頭強勁，第一季GDP成長4.5%，預計全年將進一步加速。

In fact, China is forecast to be more than 1/2 of the projected 2% increase in global oil demand in 2023. Meanwhile, chemical tanker demand is forecasted to grow by 7.5% in 2023 on the back of strengthening economic activity. Furthermore, and importantly, the product in the chemical tanker order books remain at historically low levels, so that supply growth is expected to be very low versus the robust demand outlook. So, although there are macro headwinds and recessionary concerns, which are impacting overall market sentiment, in our view, these concerns continue to be outweighed by the positive demand factors mentioned above.

事實上，預計到 2023 年，中國將佔全球石油需求預計增幅 2% 的一半以上。同時，隨著經濟活動的加強，預計 2023 年化學品油輪需求將成長 7.5%。此外，重要的是，化學品油輪訂單中的產品仍處於歷史低位，因此相對於強勁的需求前景，預計供應成長將非常低。因此，儘管宏觀逆風和經濟衰退擔憂正在影響整體市場情緒，但我們認為，這些擔憂仍然被上述積極需求因素所抵消。

Moving to Slide 6, where we discuss the embargo in more detail. We believe the impact of the EU embargo is yet to fully play out and there could be a potential coiled spring effect leading to further ton-mile demand growth. As you can see from Chart 1, ton miles relating to European imports are only up 15% year-on-year in contrast to the 114% increase in Russian export ton miles. The reason is highlighted in Chart 2 is the European inventory build prior to the embargo. As inventories are drawn down, we expect to see European refined product imports increase. Of note, diesel inventories are already down 10% since February. So, [our 3] highlights the expected differential in European product and port voyage lengths and suggest that there is another leg of ton-mile demand yet to be realized from the embargo once inventory drawdowns give way to higher imports.

前往投影片 6，我們將更詳細地討論禁運。我們認為，歐盟禁運的影響尚未完全顯現，並且可能產生潛在的螺旋彈簧效應，導致噸英里需求進一步增長。從圖1可以看出，歐洲進口噸英里僅年增15%，而俄羅斯出口噸英里則增加了114%。圖 2 突顯的原因是禁運之前歐洲庫存的增加。隨著庫存減少，我們預計歐洲成品油進口量將會增加。值得注意的是，自 2 月以來柴油庫存已經下降了 10%。因此，[我們的 3] 強調了歐洲產品和港口航程長度的預期差異，並表明一旦庫存減少讓位於進口增加，禁運還會帶來另一輪噸英里需求。

Turning to Slide 7. We remain fully focused on our capital allocation policy because, as we said before, at Ardmore capital allocation is what anchors our ambition to reality and frames how we approach decision-making. As a result of our ongoing very strong chartering performance, low breakeven levels and net leverage of 21%, we're now in a position to pursue all of our priorities simultaneously. These priorities are maintaining our fleet over time, which we're doing by continuing to invest in our ships to optimize their performance, sustaining low leverage below 40%. As mentioned, we're currently at just over 20% on a net debt basis. Well-timed accretive growth. We continue to evaluate and develop potential transactions in a patient and disciplined manner. And finally, returning capital to shareholders, we are consistent with our dividend policy of paying out one-third of adjusted earnings, we're pleased to declare a quarterly cash dividend of $0.35 per share, which will be paid on June 15.

轉到投影片 7。我們仍然完全專注於我們的資本配置政策，因為正如我們之前所說，在阿德莫爾，資本配置使我們的雄心壯志落實處，並決定了我們如何進行決策。由於我們持續強勁的租船業績、較低的盈虧平衡水準和 21% 的淨槓桿率，我們現在能夠同時追求所有的優先事項。這些優先事項是長期維護我們的船隊，我們透過繼續投資我們的船舶來優化其性能，將槓桿率維持在 40% 以下。如上所述，我們目前的淨債務率略高於 20%。適時增值成長。我們繼續以耐心和嚴謹的方式評估和開發潛在交易。最後，向股東返還資本，我們堅持派發調整後收益三分之一的股息政策，我們很高興宣布每股 0.35 美元的季度現金股息，將於 6 月 15 日支付。

The key point to this business is a highly cyclical business where financial strength can pay off hugely as it permits well-timed investment and growth, but we also must balance reinvestment timing and growth with returning capital to shareholders, which is the cornerstone of our capital allocation policy. And on that note, I'll hand the call back over to Bart.

這項業務的關鍵在於其高度週期性，財務實力可以帶來巨大回報，因為它允許適時的投資和成長，但我們也必須在再投資時機和成長與向股東返還資本之間取得平衡，這是我們資本配置政策的基石。就此而言，我將把電話轉回給巴特。

Thanks, Tony. Building upon Tony's comments on market outlook, we'll further examine the industry fundamentals. Overall, the supply-demand dynamics remain highly favorable.

謝謝，托尼。基於托尼對市場前景的評論，我們將進一步研究行業基本面。整體而言，供需情勢仍十分有利。

On Slide 9, we highlight the widening supply-demand gap. The strong ton-mile growth, which is highlighted in the green bars on the chart is driven by robust underlying fundamentals, further enhanced by the EU embargo in 2023 and by the full year impact of the European import ton-mile story on 2024 that we just discussed. The widening supply-demand gap is accentuated by the deceleration in net fleet growth to effectively 0 with the potential for contraction in the near future. Even under a range of different demand scenarios, this is a very wide supply demand gap by historical standards and one that we'll delve into on the subsequent slides.

在第 9 張投影片上，我們強調了供需缺口的擴大。強勁的噸英里增長（圖表中的綠色條突出顯示）是由強勁的基本面推動的，而 2023 年歐盟的禁運以及我們剛剛討論過的歐洲進口噸英里故事對 2024 年全年的影響進一步增強了這一增長。淨船隊成長速度實際上已降至零，近期有可能萎縮，這加劇了供需缺口的擴大。即使在一系列不同的需求情境下，以歷史標準來看，這也是一個非常大的供需缺口，我們將在後續投影片中深入探討。

On Slide 10, we highlight the favorable structural shifts in the product and chemical tanker markets. As we have touched on, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the EU refined products embargo have resulted in a persistent reordering of the global product trade driving demand. The long-term trend of refinery dislocation between the East and West with an expected additional 7.6 million barrels per day of export-oriented capacity to come online in Asia and the Middle East through 2026, continues to have a positive impact on the product and chemical tanker market, all while the IEA continues to note a multiyear trajectory of consumption demand growth. And also highlighted on this slide is the strong chemical tanker demand forecasted to grow at levels in excess of global GDP, projected to increase by over 5% annually, driven by both growing consumption and increased voyage length.

在第 10 張投影片上，我們重點介紹了產品和化學品油輪市場有利的結構性轉變。正如我們剛才提到的，俄羅斯與烏克蘭的衝突以及歐盟成品油禁運導致推動需求的全球產品貿易持續重新排序。預計到 2026 年，亞洲和中東地區煉油廠將新增 760 萬桶/天的出口型產能，這是東西方煉油廠錯位的長期趨勢，這將繼續對產品和化學品油輪市場產生積極影響，同時國際能源總署繼續注意到消費需求的多年增長軌跡。本投影片也強調了化學品船需求的強勁成長，預計其成長速度將超過全球 GDP，在消費成長和航程增加的推動下，化學品船需求預計每年將成長 5% 以上。

Moving to Slide 11, where we highlight how the low product tanker order book contrast sharply with the rapidly aging fleet. Currently, the order book is just 6% of the total fleet. As mentioned in the past, the low order book is mainly due to very limited shipyard birth availability and the consequence of crowding out by other shipping sectors and the continued lack of clarity on emissions regulations and propulsion technology, which is deterring investment. To put this further into perspective, and while there has been some moderate recent ordering, there is currently only 10 million deadweight tons of orders versus nearly 70 million tons within the scrapping age profile in the next 5 years. Naturally, in the higher chartering rate environment, scrapping levels reduce, but the global fleet's age profile, in particular with the large group of vessels originally built in the early to mid-2000s, provides future support to supply dynamics over the medium to long term.

轉到幻燈片 11，我們重點介紹了低成品油油輪訂單量與快速老化的船隊形成的鮮明對比。目前，訂單量僅佔船隊總量的6%。正如過去所提到的，訂單量低主要是由於船廠產能非常有限，以及其他航運業的擠佔，以及排放法規和推進技術持續缺乏明確性，從而阻礙了投資。進一步來看，雖然近期訂單有所增加，但目前的訂單量僅為 1,000 萬載重噸，而未來 5 年內報廢船舶將達到近 7,000 萬噸。當然，在租船費率較高的環境下，報廢水準會降低，但全球船隊的船齡結構，尤其是大量在 21 世紀初至中期建造的船舶，為中長期的供應動態提供了支持。

Moving to Slide 13. Ardmore continues to build upon its financial strength. Net leverage at the end of March stood at just over 20%, which is down from 55% at the end of the same period last year. We have a strong liquidity position with $53 million of cash on hand and over $190 million in undrawn revolving facilities at the end of the quarter. As noted in the chart on the bottom left, we have managed to reduce our cash breakeven levels by $2,000 per day in a rising interest rate environment as a result of effective cost control, reduced debt levels and access to revolving debt facilities. As always, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing performance and continuing to closely manage costs in this inflationary environment.

轉到投影片 13。阿德莫爾繼續增強其財務實力。 3月底淨槓桿率略高於20%，較去年同期的55%下降。我們的流動性狀況良好，截至本季末，手頭上有 5,300 萬美元現金，未提取的循環信貸額度超過 1.9 億美元。如左下角圖所示，透過有效的成本控制、降低債務水準和獲得循環債務融資，我們在利率上升的環境下成功將現金損益平衡水準降低了每天 2,000 美元。像往常一樣，阿德莫爾仍然專注於優化績效，並在通膨環境下繼續密切管理成本。

Turning to Slide 14 for financial highlights. As noted, we are very pleased with our performance as we report results of $1.04 per share for the first quarter of 2023. We are correspondingly reporting strong EBITDAR for the quarter and continue to frame EBITDAR as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. Please note that there is a full reconciliation of this presented in the appendix on Slide 25. Although our very favorable floating to fixed interest rate swaps will roll off this summer, we have reduced our debt level significantly mitigating the impact of prevailing higher interest rates. And please refer to Slide 26 in the appendix for our second quarter 2023 guidance numbers.

請翻到幻燈片 14 查看財務亮點。如上所述，我們對我們的業績非常滿意，因為我們報告 2023 年第一季的業績為每股 1.04 美元。相應地，我們報告本季的 EBITDAR 表現強勁，並繼續將 EBITDAR 作為與我們的 IFRS 報告同業進行比較的重要可比較估值指標。請注意，投影片 25 上的附錄對此進行了完整的調整。雖然我們非常優惠的浮動利率與固定利率互換將在今年夏天結束，但我們已顯著降低了債務水平，從而減輕了當前較高利率的影響。請參閱附錄中的第 26 張投影片，以了解我們 2023 年第二季的指導資料。

Moving to Slide 15. We continue to invest in the fleet to optimize performance. This year, we have 8 scheduled dry dockings planned, and this reduces to 4 next year. We've expanded our plans to install second-generation carbon capture ready scrubber technology on board 9 of our vessels following a recent order for 3 additional units for installation in 2024. As a reminder, these modular units, as highlighted in the picture on the slide are fitted with the latest technology, which filters, neutralizes and reduces water discharge. And there is no anticipated additional downtime as these installations are planned to occur within the time constraints of normal dry docking. Also noteworthy, we had on-hire availability of almost 100% for the first quarter as a result of the continued close coordination of our teams Etsy and Onshore.

轉到投影片 15。我們繼續投資車隊以優化性能。今年我們計劃進行 8 次乾船塢維修，明年將減少到 4 次。我們最近訂購了 3 套用於 2024 年安裝的第二代碳捕集洗滌器，現已擴大計劃，將在 9 艘船上安裝該技術。需要提醒的是，這些模組化裝置（如幻燈片圖片所示）配備了最新技術，可過濾、中和並減少水排放。由於這些安裝計劃在正常乾船塢的時間限制內進行，因此預計不會有額外的停機時間。同樣值得注意的是，由於我們 Etsy 和 Onshore 團隊的持續密切協調，第一季我們的租用可用性幾乎達到 100%。

Moving to Slide 16. Here, we're highlighting our significant operating leverage. The blue bar on the left notes our reported EPS of $3.74 in 2022 and compares this to the green bars, which represent what our 2023 EPS would be based on current market run rate levels as well as upside cases for the remainder of the year. In 2022, we reported our most profitable year-to-date. But as you can see from this chart, and considering the current TCE market, we have the potential to deliver even higher earnings this year. Finally, I'd also like to highlight that even without increases to vessel values and simply based on accrued cash generation, our net asset value would increase by approximately $1.50 per share annually post dividend for every $10,000 per day increase in TCE rates. These dynamics, along with the very supportive supply-demand fundamentals are keeping us really excited about the outlook and our compelling positioning.

轉到投影片 16。在這裡，我們強調了我們顯著的經營槓桿。左側的藍色條表示我們報告的 2022 年每股收益為 3.74 美元，並將其與綠色條進行比較，綠色條表示基於當前市場運行率水平以及今年剩餘時間的上行情況，我們 2023 年的每股收益。 2022 年，我們報告了迄今為止最豐厚的年度利潤。但正如您從該圖表中看到的，考慮到當前的 TCE 市場，我們今年有潛力實現更高的收益。最後，我還想強調的是，即使船舶價值沒有增加，僅基於累計現金產生，TCE 費率每天每增加 10,000 美元，我們的淨資產價值每年就會增加約 1.50 美元/股（含股息）。這些動態，加上非常有利的供需基本面，讓我們對前景和我們引人注目的定位感到非常興奮。

With that, I'm happy to hand it back over to Tony and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

說完這些，我很高興將其交還給托尼，並期待最後回答任何問題。

Great. Thanks, Bart. So, in summary, regarding the market, TCE rates remain extremely elevated relative to historical norms. The impact of EU refined product embargos playing out with increased ton-miles and a potential further leg of demand yet to come. And the medium-term outlook also remains positive for both product and chemical tankers based on the widening supply-demand gap with very low net fleet growth being far outstripped by anticipated demand growth. And regarding the company, we're achieving continued strong TCE performance and are matching this with effective cost control in an inflationary environment. In fact, we completed the rest of 2023 at the same rate levels as our performance year-to-date, we would beat last year's record earnings. Meanwhile, our robust balance sheet and low cash flow break evens are enabling us to pursue all of our capital allocation priorities simultaneously.

偉大的。謝謝，巴特。因此，總而言之，就市場而言，TCE 利率相對於歷史標準仍然極高。歐盟成品油禁運的影響正在顯現，噸英里數將增加，未來可能還會出現進一步的需求成長。由於供需缺口不斷擴大，且淨船隊成長率極低，遠低於預期的需求成長，因此成品油船和化學品船的中期前景依然樂觀。就公司而言，我們繼續保持強勁的 TCE 業績，並在通膨環境下進行有效的成本控制。事實上，如果我們以與年初至今的業績相同的速度完成 2023 年剩餘時間的業績，我們將超過去年創紀錄的收益。同時，我們強勁的資產負債表和較低的現金流量損益平衡使我們能夠同時追求所有資本配置優先事項。

To finish with an important recent announcement and keeping with our longer-term strategic focus, our Board has formed a sustainability committee to oversee and advise on environmental, social and energy transition matters, which will ensure Board focus and support for the company as we make progress in these complex and extremely important areas of our business. And with that, we're pleased to open up the call for questions.

為了完成最近發布的一項重要公告並保持我們的長期戰略重點，我們的董事會成立了一個可持續發展委員會，負責監督和指導環境、社會和能源轉型事宜，這將確保董事會在我們在這些複雜且極其重要的業務領域取得進展時關注和支持公司。現在，我們很高興開始回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Tony, I want to start with you. I know that the long-term outlook that you laid out looks pretty attractive. But of course, there's a lot of focus currently on the short term. You mentioned some of the inventory destocking in Europe. There's typical seasonality, although you did mention kind of defined seasonality in your last slide. Can you just speak to what's kind of going on in the market today, how that kind of compares to 2, 3 months ago when the market was really flying and how that shapes your second half outlook as well?

東尼，我想從你開始。我知道您列出的長期前景看起來非常有吸引力。但當然，目前人們的注意力主要集中在短期。您提到了歐洲的一些庫存去庫存現象。存在典型的季節性，儘管您在上一張投影片中確實提到了某種定義的季節性。您能否談談當今市場的狀況，與 2、3 個月前市場繁榮時相比有何不同，以及這對您下半年的展望有何影響？

So, look, I think we're very positive even in the near term from where we are today. I think the supply constraint is impactful, not just longer term, but currently, Secondly, we think there's a lot of positive demand factors that should emerge in the second half of the year. When it comes to seasonality, rates are -- okay, we did $37,000 a day for Q1. And so far in Q2, we're at like 34,000. To me, that's like within the margin of error and oscillation that would suggest to me that the market is about the same level. Clearly, these -- this is a level where we're off where we were in the third and fourth quarters last year. I think at that point, we were dealing with kind of maximum disruption and a lot of the disruption has gone away, but we're still dealing with significant and perhaps increasing dislocation, for example, as we kind of laid out with regard to diesel imports into Europe. So overall, we're -- we remind to kind of pinch ourselves here and kind of reflect on the long faces that we've got because we're only earning $34,000 a day right now. So, we think it's a pretty good setup for continued strong performance.

所以，從目前的情況來看，我認為即使就短期而言我們也是非常樂觀的。我認為供應限制是有影響的，不僅是長期的，而且目前也是如此，其次，我們認為下半年應該會出現許多正面的需求因素。就季節性而言，費率是 - 好的，我們第一季每天的費率為 37,000 美元。到第二季為止，我們的用戶數量已經達到 34,000 人。對我來說，這就像是處於誤差和波動的範圍內，這表明市場大致處於同一水平。顯然，這是我們與去年第三季和第四季相比所處的水平。我認為，在那個時候，我們正在處理最大程度的混亂，而且很多混亂已經消失，但我們仍在處理嚴重且可能日益加劇的混亂，例如，正如我們在談到歐洲柴油進口時所說的那樣。所以總的來說，我們——我們提醒自己，在這裡掐一下自己，反思我們為什麼那麼難過，因為我們現在每天只賺 34,000 美元。因此，我們認為這對於持續強勁的表現來說是一個非常好的設定。

Okay. And then my follow-up for you, Tony, but I'd also like to hear Bart's views given his experience at other firms through other cycles. You mentioned you're hitting all your capital allocation targets. The yields close to 10%, you've really de-levered pretty aggressively to the point where maybe more deleverage is kind of unnecessary, but asset values are still really elevated too. So how do you kind of think about the next 3 to 5 years on prioritizing that capital allocation? And do you think you're going to get an opportunity to kind of replenish or even expand the fleet? Or are you going to be stuck in this kind of rock in a hard place of asset values are really strong and the returns maybe don't make sense at this point?

好的。然後我要跟進你的問題，托尼，但我也想聽聽巴特根據他在其他公司經歷其他週期的經驗的看法。您提到您正在實現所有資本配置目標。收益率接近 10%，已經相當積極地去槓桿，甚至可能沒有必要再進一步去槓桿，但資產價值仍然很高。那麼您如何考慮在未來 3 到 5 年內優先考慮資本配置？您認為您將有機會補充甚至擴大船隊嗎？或者您會陷入這種困境：資產價值非常強勁，而此時的回報可能毫無意義？

I'm tempted to let Bart go first, but I'll mention that it's a pretty comfortable rock in a hard place right now. So, there are a lot worse things to happen to a shipping company. We also, I believe very firmly that this is going to continue to be a cyclical business. I think that the -- I think the high asset values today are reflective of people that are in the market every day, their estimates of what cash flow is going to look like in the next couple of years. So, we are positioning the company to benefit through the cycle from buying opportunities when they arise. We're continuing to look at opportunities even as we speak, nothing is attractive at the moment, but that doesn't mean that even in relatively strong conditions, you can't find something that makes sense. But Bart, I don't know if you want to…

我很想讓巴特先走，但我要說的是，現在他在困境中處於非常舒適的境地。因此，對於航運公司來說，還有很多更糟糕的事情會發生。我也堅信，這將繼續是一個週期性的業務。我認為——我認為今天的高資產價值反映了每天在市場上的人們對於未來幾年現金流狀況的估計。因此，我們讓公司在整個週期中從出現的購買機會中獲益。我們仍在繼續尋找機會，儘管目前還沒有什麼有吸引力的東西，但這並不意味著即使在相對強勁的條件下，你也找不到有意義的東西。但是巴特，我不知道你是否想…

No. I mean, I'd echo that and just -- I mean, we're always turning over stones or rocks maybe as we're putting it. And even if we're not consummating deals, you're definitely gaining key intelligence as an organization that you can drive into your business today. And then that gives you greater conviction for when the right deal may emerge. And then like Tony said, we can address the other capital allocation policies simultaneously, and you'll keep a very dynamic approach to it in this strong market.

不，我的意思是，我同意這一點，只是——我的意思是，我們可能總是在翻石頭或岩石，就像我們在放置它一樣。即使我們沒有達成交易，作為一個組織，您肯定也會獲得關鍵情報，並且可以將其應用到您今天的業務中。這樣，您就能更加確信何時會出現正確的交易。然後就像托尼所說的那樣，我們可以同時解決其他資本配置政策，並且您將在這個強勁的市場中保持非常動態的方式。

Can I just add one more thing, which is that at a time when interest rates have risen sharply in the last year, our breakeven has come down a lot. And that's -- that's because of the lower debt levels. And that, of course, translates into better earnings, higher quality earnings, more solid NAV and a higher quality dividend yield.

我再補充一點，去年利率大幅上升，我們的損益兩平點卻下降了很多。這是因為債務水平較低。當然，這意味著更好的收益、更高品質的收益、更穩健的淨值和更高品質的股息殖利率。

The next question is from Omar Nokta with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Omar Nokta。

Maybe just sort of on the last point of discussion you were having with Jon about values being elevated and the returns potentially not looking as exciting. Obviously, there's no rush to do anything and you like being in this rock and a hard place. Just sort of the perspective that you have that I guess we broadly see, is that sort of product market-centric? Does that carry over into chemicals as well? Do you see better opportunities there? Any way you can sort of qualify how you're seeing the opportunities, whether it's more advantageous to look at chemicals versus product or not?

也許只是您與喬恩討論的最後一點，即價值被提升，而回報可能看起來不那麼令人興奮。顯然，沒有必要急於做任何事情，你喜歡處於這種進退維谷的境地。我想我們大致都看到了，您所持的觀點是，這種產品是以市場為中心的嗎？這也適用於化學品嗎？您在那裡看到更好的機會嗎？您能否以某種方式說明您如何看待這些機會，即關注化學品是否比關注產品更有利？

Generally speaking, the MR sector is much more homogenous. The chemical sector is lots of different ship sizes and types and kind of pockets. And therefore, just by that very nature, there are probably more opportunities on the chemical side at the moment. But again, I want to emphasize the fact that the values are underpinned by market player estimates of near-term cash flow.

整體而言，MR 產業的同質化程度較高。化學工業有許多不同尺寸、類型和種類的船舶。因此，就其性質而言，目前化學方面可能存在更多機會。但我再次強調，這些價值是由市場參與者對近期現金流的估計所支持的。

Yes. Okay. And then maybe just a bit broadly kind of on the -- as you mentioned, right, you 37% in the first quarter, 34% currently. Obviously, we've seen a shift in the market at least in the VLCCs with OPEC cuts starting to have an impact. In the past, there's been a view of a trickle-down effect across all segments when you have an OPEC cut like we've seen, how do you see the production changes from OPEC impacting products? Do you feel that the sector is well insulated -- or are there other important drivers that are driving the strength relative to, say, large crude ship?

是的。好的。然後可能只是大致如此 - 正如您所提到的，第一季為 37%，目前為 34%。顯然，我們已經看到市場發生了變化，至少在超大型油輪市場，石油輸出國組織 (OPEC) 的減產開始產生影響。過去，人們認為當 OPEC 減產時，所有領域都會產生涓滴效應，您如何看待 OPEC 的產量變化對產品的影響？您是否認為該行業受到的衝擊較小——或者是否存在其他重要驅動因素，推動該行業相對於大型原油運輸船等行業的強勁發展？

So, for the past year, that typical linkage hasn't really held. And we do think that there are particular specifics to the product tanker sector that delink it to the crude market at the moment. And we also believe, as we've said, we think that there may be more of a demand impact to come from the EU oil embargo. And again, our business is driven by refinery throughput and output and therefore very much linked to consumer demand. OPEC is making decisions based on crude -- trying to drive crude pricing and manage crude inventories. So, there is a -- at the moment, we believe they are decoupled.

因此，在過去的一年裡，這種典型的連結並沒有真正維持下去。我們確實認為成品油輪產業目前存在一些特殊情況，使其與原油市場脫鉤。而且，正如我們所說，我們也認為歐盟石油禁運可能會對需求產生更大的影響。而且，我們的業務是由煉油廠的產量和產出所驅動的，因此與消費者需求密切相關。歐佩克根據原油情況做出決策—試圖推動原油價格並管理原油庫存。因此，目前，我們認為它們已經脫鉤。

Okay. And maybe just as a quick follow-up to that. We've seen crack spreads come off. And so that sort of does dictate to an extent throughput, but it seems that refining margins potentially are still somewhat elevated relative to history. The sort of maybe in your crystal ball or maybe just in your discussion with charters or how you're seeing the market as it is now, have you seen any noticeable shift in refinery habits as a result of the lower margins?

好的。或許這只是對此的一個快速跟進。我們已經看到裂解價差下降。因此，這確實在一定程度上決定了產量，但看起來煉油利潤率相對於歷史水準仍有可能提高。或許在您的預測中，或者只是在您與租船商的討論中，或者您如何看待現在的市場，您是否看到由於利潤率較低而導致煉油習慣發生明顯轉變？

I think there's always this dynamic of refinery turnarounds when they happen, and it's a well-kept industry secret because it's competitive intel in that business. But we are in a phase where there is an elevated level of refinery turnarounds in China. However, the U.S. Gulf is back up to over 95% throughput for utilization. So overall, -- it is true that crack spreads and refinery margins are off the peaks, well off the peaks, but they're still more than double where they were before the conflict. And we think that's still compelling and driving profitability for refineries.

我認為煉油廠扭虧為盈時總會有這種動態，這是一個嚴格保守的行業秘密，因為它是該行業的競爭情報。但我們正處於中國煉油廠檢修水準較高的階段。不過，美國墨西哥灣的吞吐量利用率已恢復至 95% 以上。因此總體而言，裂解價差和煉油利潤確實已經脫離峰值，遠低於峰值，但仍是衝突前的兩倍多。我們認為這仍然具有吸引力並能推動煉油廠的獲利能力。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Ben Nolan with Stifel.

（操作員指示）下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Ben Nolan。

I have a couple. So first, maybe 2 capital allocation type questions. We've seen a fair bit of people converting leases that were done a few years ago into more traditional bank debt. I'm curious if that's something that you might be looking to do? And then also, as it relates to the capital return policy. As you said, Tony, I mean, the balance sheet is at 21% leverage. Any thoughts about maybe adjusting that one-third of net income ratio as it relates to the dividend?

我有一對。所以首先，可能有 2 個資本配置類型的問題。我們看到相當多的人將幾年前的租賃轉換為更傳統的銀行債務。我很好奇您是否想做這件事？而且，這也與資本回報政策有關。正如你所說，東尼，我的意思是，資產負債表的槓桿比率為 21%。您是否考慮過調整與股息相關的三分之一淨收入比率？

So, this is Bart. Thanks, Ben. So, in terms of the leases converting to bank debt, that was actually something that the company tackled mid-2022 -- and so today, we only have 2 remaining vessels on lease and the initial purchase options don't come until mid-next year. But that was the key shift to the revolving facilities, which then we subsequently have continued to pay down. So that addresses the lease question. On the capital allocation in terms of debt level, the capital allocation policy is set for a through-the-cycle approach over the course of time, you delever when you're in the strong upmarket, so that you have opportunity and inherent dry powder as the cycle plays out.

這就是巴特。謝謝，本。因此，就租賃轉換為銀行債務而言，這實際上是公司在 2022 年中期解決的問題——因此今天，我們只剩下 2 艘租賃船隻，而初始購買選擇權要到明年中期才會到來。但這是向循環信貸額度轉變的關鍵，隨後我們便會繼續償還貸款。這樣就解決了租賃問題。在債務水平的資本配置方面，資本配置政策是針對整個週期的方法而製定的，當你處於強勁的高端市場時，你會降低槓桿率，這樣你就有機會和內在的乾粉隨著週期的展開。

And we see that while we're below 40%, and that's the stated goal, we have -- we still have additional runway to actually delever further and also continue with the one-third dividend, which again is a policy for through the cycle. And I think we've been vocal before that if we see a continued cash build in a strong market and different accretive growth opportunities don't emerge, we're also supportive of additional return of capital to shareholders and that's a conversation we frequently have with our Board. And most likely, that would be in the form of a special dividend.

我們看到，雖然我們的比率低於 40%，這是既定目標，但我們仍然有額外的空間來進一步降低槓桿率，並繼續實行三分之一的股息，這也是一項貫穿整個週期的政策。我認為我們之前就曾表示過，如果我們看到強勁的市場中現金持續增加，而不同的增值增長機會沒有出現，我們也支持向股東額外返還資本，這是我們經常與董事會討論的問題。最有可能的是，這將以特別股息的形式出現。

Okay. Yes. I appreciate that. And in the for what it's worth department, I agree. There's no need to go crazy. The -- my next question relates to the carbon capture ready scrubbers that you have. Appreciating that they're ready, and so they're not active or wouldn't, if I understand it correctly, be actively capturing carbon. I'm curious what would need to be implemented in order to enable that? Both in terms of incremental CapEx in order to capture the carbon. And also, just generally speaking, I mean, do you need to see more infrastructure in place around the world? Or how do we think about sort of those moving from simply a ready state to something that's active?

好的。是的。我很感激。就其價值而言，我同意。沒有必要發瘋。我的下一個問題與你們的碳捕獲洗滌器有關。感謝他們已經做好了準備，所以他們沒有積極行動，或者說不會積極地捕獲碳，如果我理解正確的話。我很好奇為了實現這一點需要實施什麼？兩者都是為了捕獲碳而增加的資本支出。而且，一般來說，我的意思是，你是否需要看到世界各地建立更多的基礎設施？或者我們如何看待從簡單的準備狀態轉變為活躍狀態？

Yes. So, Ben, on the incremental CapEx would be probably less than the $300,000. It's essentially an additional component that gets mounted on the back. I think that any carbon capture technology and application is still very nascent in the shipping industry. This is a very, very straightforward simple method of capturing carbon, but it does have to be linked to a kind of a shoreside infrastructure and kind of predictable trade routes to make it effective. And that's actually the case with any ship-based carbon capture system.

是的。因此，本，增量資本支出可能少於 30 萬美元。它本質上是一個安裝在背面的附加元件。我認為任何碳捕獲技術和應用在航運業中仍處於起步階段。這是一種非常非常直接簡單的碳捕獲方法，但它必須與某種岸上基礎設施和可預測的貿易路線相聯繫才能有效。事實上，任何船舶碳捕獲系統都是如此。

Okay. So, I assume these are aiming, right? So, you need access to -- yes. Okay. All right. but we shouldn't expect -- it doesn't sound like that infrastructure is really close at this point? So, it's not something we should expect soon I guess, is what you're saying, correct?

好的。所以，我認為這些都是有目的的，對嗎？所以，您需要存取權限——是的。好的。好的。但我們不應該期望——聽起來基礎設施目前還沒有真正接近？所以，我想這不是我們應該很快就會期待的事情，你這麼說對嗎？

Yes. And I think that it's very good for the environment, I think, very good for our carbon reduction compliance. I don't think it will have a big, big impact on our earnings, unless the ship's going time charter to somebody that's willing to really pay up for that feature. But we like that -- we think it's taking the company in the right direction. And it could actually be implemented very quickly if the -- it's not -- it wouldn't be years away. It could be relatively quick if the demand were there.

是的。我認為這對環境非常有益，對我們的碳減排合規性也非常有益。我認為這不會對我們的收益產生很大的影響，除非這艘船被定期租給願意為該功能支付高額費用的人。但我們喜歡這樣——我們認為這會帶領公司朝著正確的方向發展。事實上，如果……它很快就能實現，而且不需要幾年的時間。如果有需求的話，速度可能會相對較快。

This concludes our question-and-answer session, and the conference is also now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

我們的問答環節到此結束，會議也結束了。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。