Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Associated Banc-Corp's Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Daren, and I will be your operator today. (Operator Instructions)

Copies of the slides that will be referenced during today's call are available on the company's website at investor.associatedbank.com. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

As outlined on Slide 2, during the course of this discussion today, management may make statements that constitute projections, expectations, beliefs or similar forward-looking statements. Associated's actual results could differ materially from the results anticipated or projected in any such forward-looking statements. Additional detailed information concerning the important factors that could cause Associated's actual results to differ materially from the information discussed today is readily available on the SEC website and the Risk Factors section of Associated's most recent Form 10-K and any subsequent SEC filings. These factors are incorporated herein by reference.

For a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the GAAP financial measures mentioned in this conference call, please refer to the slide presentation and to Page 10 of the press release financial table. Following today's presentation, instructions will be given to the question-and-answer session. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Philip Flynn, President and CEO, for opening remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Chris Niles, our Chief Financial Officer; and John Hankerd, our Chief Credit Officer.

Turning to Slide 3. This quarter's results were driven by growing interest income, improving credit dynamics and efficiency gains. We recorded our highest quarterly earnings and return on capital since 2008.

Loan details for the third quarter are highlighted on Slide 4. Highlighted in green, average residential mortgage loans increased 5% from the second quarter and $1.1 billion from the prior year. Third quarter's growth was primarily driven by growth in 5/1 and 7/1 adjustable rate mortgages, with a lesser contribution from the on balance sheet mortgage retention strategy that concluded in June. We expect residential mortgages to continue to grow at a reasonable pace during the fourth quarter. Residential mortgages now represent 35% of our average total loan outstandings.

Highlighted in blue, we saw incremental C&I growth from Q2 within most of our specialized verticals. While C&I commitments have increased 2% from the prior quarter and 7% from the prior year, we saw generally reduced line utilization, with total C&I utilization falling to 49% in Q3, from 52% last year. Notably, mortgage warehouse utilization, which typically rises during the summer, was much lower than expected. As a result, our C&I portfolio was flat but seemingly in line with industry-reported C&I trends. However, we're pleased with the growth we've seen in our REIT outstandings.

Our CRE trends are presented in orange. We've been moderating growth within our commercial real estate portfolio as we're mindful of the approximately $1 billion in commercial real estate exposure we'll be assuming when the Bank Mutual acquisition closes. Bank Mutual's exposure is highly concentrated in the Upper Midwest and, specifically, Wisconsin. We have relationships with many of Bank Mutual's existing customers, so we are being deliberate about the incremental CRE exposure we're assuming.

We expect Q4 commercial real estate outstandings to be muted as we position for the integration of the Bank Mutual portfolio in 2018. Nonetheless, we remain on track to deliver at least mid-single-digit annual average growth, in line with our 2017 loan guidance.

On Slide 5, we highlight our quarterly deposit trends. We believe an important measure of a successful bank is its ability to gather, retain and grow core deposits. Per recently released FDIC data, we're pleased to report that we've grown our deposit market share across our footprint. Average deposits increased $918 million or 4% from the second quarter and $1 billion or 5% from the prior year. Over the course of the year, we've increased our net customer deposits and funding by $1.5 billion, which translates to an 8% annual growth rate in customer deposit activity while reducing our more rate-sensitive network transaction deposits by $1.1 billion.

As a reminder, we have a pronounced seasonal deposit pattern. We see outflows during the first half of each year, with significant inflows during the back half of the year. Many municipalities receive funding for their new fiscal year during Q3, while we tend to see private sector balances increase in Q4.

During Q3, we strategically shifted our funding mix away from network transaction deposits and into public fund time deposits. We managed the mix of our funding and borrowings with these seasonal dynamics in mind and continuously seek the most cost-effective way to fund our growth.

Turning to Slide 6. Net interest income of $190 million was up $6 million from the second quarter and $12 million from a year ago. Net interest margin was 2.84% in the third quarter, up 1 basis point from the second quarter, and up 7 basis points from the prior year. Over the last year, we funded nearly 20% of our earning assets with noninterest-bearing demand deposits. As the Fed has increased rates, the benefit of these noninterest-bearing demand deposits has expanded by 8 basis points. This benefit, which is known as the net free funds benefit, was a key contributor to our margin expansion.

Total commercial loan yields were up 24 basis points quarter-over-quarter and 64 basis points from the year-ago quarter, reflecting the asset-sensitive profile of our LIBOR-based commercial portfolio.

Our cost of interest-bearing deposits increased 31 basis points from the prior year and reflects a deposit beta of approximately 0.4, primarily driven by the repricing dynamics of our network transaction deposits.

We continue to see modest competitive pressure in deposit pricing within our markets. We've begun to see customers shift balances to time deposits to lock in higher rates. We've also seen a modest amount of pricing pressure in our money market accounts. We continue to monitor the competitive situation, and we believe we're appropriately priced to continue to grow customer deposits in our core markets. And we continue to expect an improving year-over-year net interest margin trend.

Turning to Slide 7. Third quarter noninterest income of $86 million was up $3 million from the second quarter but down $9 million from the prior year. As expected, mortgage banking income decreased from the prior year, reflecting last year's portfolio loan sales. Mortgage banking income increased $2 million from the second quarter as we resumed our historic practice of originating loans for sale in the secondary market. As a reminder, on a full year basis, we guided that noninterest income would be down about $20 million from prior year, with some of that shortfall offset by other revenue line items.

Bank-owned life insurance income was up $3 million from the prior and year-ago quarters, driven by increased policy payouts. Over the last 5 years, our annual after-tax BOLI income has ranged between $10 million and $16 million, which is reflected in our income statement. Since BOLI income is tax-exempt, our effective BOLI income during the same period was the equivalent of $16 million to $27 million in taxable income. At quarter-end, our BOLI and COLI investment totaled nearly $590 million. We haven't bought any new BOLI policies since 2008, so we expect to see increasing policy payouts based on the increasing age of our insureds over time. As a result, we expect BOLI income will continue to be a recurring revenue stream over the coming years, but with some volatility, of course, as a result of the timing of policy payouts.

Turning to Slide 8, noninterest expense of $177 million was up $1 million from the prior quarter and $2 million from the year-ago quarter. We continue to invest in solutions that streamline operations, as evidenced by year-over-year improvement in our efficiency ratio.

Business development and advertising increased $1 million from the prior quarter and $3 million from the prior year on expanded fall advertising campaigns related to our partnership with the Green Bay Packers and our latest J.D. Power recognition. Associated's contact center operations were recognized for the second consecutive year by J.D. Power for providing an outstanding live phone channel customer service experience.

Occupancy expense decreased $1 million from the prior quarter and $3 million from the prior year, driven by our ongoing internal consolidation efforts. We remain on track to deliver less than 1% expense growth year-over-year, including the impact of the recent Whitnell acquisition.

Our year-to-date effective tax rate was 28% compared to 30% in the comparable period last year, reflecting a change in accounting standards related to stock compensation and our recent favorable tax court ruling. We expect the effective tax rate to be in the low 30s in the fourth quarter, contributing to a full year effective tax rate in the high 20s.

On Slide 9, we detail our quarterly credit quality trends, which include the results of the Q3 SNC exam. Credit quality metrics improved in Q3, with net charge-offs, nonaccrual loans, potential problem loans all improving from the prior quarter and prior year. The total allowance for loan losses decreased to 1.32% of total loans from the second quarter.

Net charge-offs of $11 million for Q3 were largely driven by charge-offs in the oil and gas portfolio. Otherwise, net charge-offs continue to remain remarkably benign. Provision expense decreased to $5 million from $12 million in the prior quarter and $21 million from the prior year.

I'd like to provide you with a quick update on the status of the Bank Mutual acquisition and the completed acquisition of Whitnell. As you know, in July, we entered into an agreement to acquire Bank Mutual. We have filed our merger applications with our regulators, and we anticipate we'll receive regulatory approvals to allow us to close the transaction in the first quarter of 2018.

Bank Mutual will be holding its special shareholder meeting next week to vote on the acquisition. We also continue our integration planning, and we remain on track with the time line we outlined during the last earnings call. We look forward to closing the transaction and welcoming Bank Mutual's customers to Associated early next year.

Turning to Slide 10. Earlier this month, we completed the acquisition of Whitnell, an Oak Brook, Illinois-based family office services firm centered around financial planning and wealth management for affluent Midwestern clients. The acquisition enhances Associated's existing Chicago land to private banking presence and our ability to provide comprehensive financial services related to tax, charitable and estate planning solutions to our existing client base. Whitnell adds 28 talented professionals and adds approximately $1 billion of assets under management. The acquisition increases both AUM and related run rate revenue by more than 10%. The transaction will not have a material impact on our 2017 earnings, but it is expected to be modestly accretive to 2018 earnings.

I'd also like to mention that following the public announcement of the Bank Mutual acquisition, we've repurchased 1.6 million shares of common stock at an average price of $23.59. So with those comments, let me open up the call for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Dave Rochester of Deutsche Bank.

I just wanted to start on expenses real quick. You guys have done a great job, obviously, keeping expense growth very constrained this year. I was just wondering if you see anything on the horizon that you think will prevent you from achieving a similar level of expense control next year on an organic basis.

On an organic basis, we would expect to manage expenses very tightly. Obviously, we'll be consolidating Bank Mutual on top of that, so when we get to January, we'll give you an estimate.

Okay. Great. And on the loan side, I was just wondering how the pipeline in C&I looks heading into 4Q. It sounds like the resi pipeline looks good. How are you expecting utilization rates to trend in C&I? Any color there?

Really hard to forecast the utilization. It's been somewhat surprising, really, all year, really, industry-wide, around commercial loan outstandings. I hear from our folks that our pipeline is starting to build a bit, so we'll see how that goes. Likewise, we're looking at some significant scheduled paydowns in commercial real estate, but I hear that the pipeline there is starting to grow as well. So whether or not that helps us very much in the fourth quarter is yet to be seen, but I would guess that we would be starting the new year with a decent pipeline.

Okay. Great. And just switching to deposits real quick. You guys had talked about the network deposits declining, I know that's largely driven by the seasonal inflows you guys just had and probably will have again next quarter. Is the goal to ultimately reduce that source of funding over time, or are you planning on maintaining those balances?

We find those to be a nice, steady source of ongoing funding. We've had long-standing relationships with many of those providers, and I think we see those as a very sticky and stable source of funding for us over time. And particularly given that we have some volatility in our core markets, we would see that coming up and down as the ebb and flow of our core volatility occurs. That having been said, we've been growing core customer deposits at a much faster clip, so it probably won't be a growing piece of the overall pie but a steady source of funds for us.

Given our choices, we would rather fund the whole place with very small sticky retail deposits. But since we don't have that choice, we're always looking for stable funding at the best price possible, and the network deposits fit into that mosaic.

Got it. Understood. And I guess, as we're -- you've mentioned the deposit pricing market has been somewhat competitive, I guess, on the retail side, commercial side, how are you thinking about what the next rate hike means for the margin, just given the dynamics you're talking about now? Are you thinking that you'll have a little bit of upside potential or you're more asset-neutral at this point?

So we continue to be modestly asset sensitive, as we have been, so we would benefit from the next rate hike. There's always a lag period that we've talked about before. As far as the competition for deposits, it's -- we're just seeing a little bit around the edges, a little bit in the money market space, but it's not turning into a free-for-all by any means in this market. Whether that changes as rates continue to move up, assuming they continue to move up, we'll have to see.

Our next question comes from Michael Young of SunTrust.

Wanted to start with maybe just the capital return. Share repurchase, obviously, was nice to see this past quarter. But wanted to get your thoughts around kind of just magnitude and timing going forward, especially with Bank Mutual closing and some of the blocking and tackling on that, does that preclude you from the market for a time?

We've often talked about our priorities for capital usage, and buying back shares is always fourth in line out of 4. We have remaining board authorization to buy back shares, and if we determine that, that was something that made sense for us, managing the overall capital position, we would do that.

Okay. So no specific plans to continue that. It's just opportunistic?

Yes. My -- even if I had plans to do it, I probably wouldn't tell you on the phone right now, to be perfectly honest. But yes, we have a lot going on, as you referenced in your question. I mean, we have the Bank Mutual transaction to close, and that's obviously a big priority for us right now.

Okay. Great. And then, maybe just going back to the expense side, obviously, the occupancy expense had taken another leg down here of $1 million on a run rate basis. Is that sustainable? And are there other opportunities do you think that can continue to move lower or are we kind of reaching a bottom on that trend?

Well, I think it's important to recognize that in combination with Bank Mutual, we expect there'll be a different trend as we absorb the incremental branches. And obviously, there will be some immediate branch closures, which we've already publicly disclosed in our merger application. So there will be a different run rate post-merger. And then, we'll probably let that digest, let our customers adjust to sort of the incremental locations and the new opportunities. And then, we'll probably look to sort of make sure that we've got the right run rate towards the end of '18, into '19.

Next question comes from Scott Siefers with Sandler O'Neill.

Chris, I was hoping maybe you could go through kind of the puts and takes on how you see overall reserving needs and credit cost. I mean, you guys have clearly started to bring down the oil and gas reserve over the past couple of quarters, which gives you a little breathing room on overall credit costs. What, as you think about it, will be the appropriate reserve ultimately in that portfolio? And then, just as you think about the dynamics in the rest of the portfolio, which are still very, very strong, how should we think about overall providing and reserving needs for the portfolio at large?

Sure, Scott. This is Phil. So if you look at Slide 12, we have a little bit of update on oil and gas. I would still tell you that there's still a few credits to complete the workout process on. And we are holding a relatively high level of reserves against the whole book at more than 5%. So we believe we're well-reserved to take care of the remaining old credits that are quickly resolving at this point. So yes, you're right, it's likely the oil and gas allowance will come down over the next couple of quarters. We just -- we don't see any credit stress in the rest of the book. And in fact, other than oil and gas, we really had essentially no credit stress for several years, at least. If you wiped out the oil and gas charge-offs we had, which had been quite extraordinary, we would've had almost no charge-offs on a $20-plus billion loan book, so it's been quite amazing. We all know that this isn't normal, and at some point, we'll start to revert back to a normal credit posture. But we don't see that immediately on the horizon. So it's not unlikely that provisioning for at least the immediate future is going to stay fairly low. But we'll have a better sense of that when we give guidance in January.

Okay. Perfect. And then, Phil, either you or Chris, maybe if you can talk or speak to near-term margin expectations. I get what you said about the year-over-year being higher, which looks like it should be in pretty much a slam dunk, given where you were, or where you will have been a year from now -- or a year ago, I should say. But just given perhaps the lag on repricing in your asset base, could we expect, absent any Fed moves, maybe actually a little additional catch-up in the margin? Or would you expect it to stay kind of stable with where we are here in the 3Q?

I take the easy answer. So I'll let Chris answer that one.

So absent any Fed action, we would expect a modest uptick. However, I think, the forwards are projecting fairly confidently a December Fed action. And assuming there is a December Fed action, that would weigh against us for essentially that period in December, which would flatten that out.

That will be the third year in a row for that, wouldn't it?

December.

Yes. What was the second?

Second December.

Third -- the second anyway.

Second December.

Yes. We've always had this lag at the end of each year this last couple of years. We'd anticipate that again, right.

Yes. If it happens in the last month of the period, it tends to flatten out the benefit of the prior rate up.

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. And then, one final, just a piggybacking question. Phil, you had noted that BOLI will be part of the ongoing stream at perhaps a more elevated level. Maybe just a little help on is $6 million the right level now? Or are you suggesting, hey, that might bounce down to $3 million, but could be up to $6 million or more, it's just going to be a lot more volatile? Or is this an actual steady-state that's going to be higher?

Yes. I think, the reason why I talked about BOLI, which we never talk about, is if you just look at the history, there is a recurring BOLI revenue stream. There's sort of a base level that comes along from the investment earnings. And then, there's payouts from the deaths of the insured, which are, of course, hard to predict, but they do happen, and we have a lot of BOLI and we have a lot of insureds. And since we haven't bought any BOLI since 2008, the insured pool is starting to get older. So the point was, just for all the analysts who are thinking trying to model this, it's difficult to model such a volatile revenue line, but there is a stream of revenue that's going to be flowing through our income statement for years and years to come with volatile spikes up.

Yes. Okay. So maybe we're still kind of at or slightly above -- I don't want to put words in your mouth, but at or slightly above what was kind of that $3 million-ish run rate on a quarterly basis, but expect some of these volatile pops periodically?

We took a look at the last 5 years, and even with some volatility, there's clearly a trend upwards.

Our next question comes from Ebrahim Poonawala of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Just had a question in terms of mortgage loan growth. Phil, you mentioned it's up to 35% of total loan book. Is there a target which you want to get to in terms of how big that portfolio should be? And is there a bigger sort of ALCO strategy around that where you're choosing to add these or buying MBS securities? Or what's sort of driving the growth strategy on the mortgage book?

Yes. So we are the largest mortgage lender and have been for many years in Wisconsin, and we have a significant presence in other states in the Midwest in our footprint. Our stated goal for the asset disposition of the balance sheet is to be in rough thirds between C&I, commercial real estate and residential mortgage. So we're a little bit over that in commercial, a little bit under that in commercial real estate, sitting right about there in residential mortgage. So we'll continue to grow that book. We would hope that our other asset classes would grow. Certainly, once Bank Mutual is integrated, commercial real estate will step up, and the overall percentage of residential mortgage will step down a little bit, most likely. So we continue to look to grow all these books, and we don't feel like, at this point, we're out of proportion on any of them. And a reminder, we did, as you know, keep some 30-year mortgage production but we stopped doing that in June. And so largely, other than CRE loans and some private banking loans, what we are putting on the balance sheet are adjustable rate mortgages going forward.

Understood. And is there a strategy to actively cross-sell to these clients who are coming in, in terms of deposit to other products, or is it just a one product relationship?

Oh, we actively try to cross-sell, but the reality is any bank that tells you that they're doing a lot of cross-selling to their mortgage customers, they're trying to, but it often turns into a one product sale. That's just the reality. People don't necessarily -- they shop for mortgages but they don't necessarily bank with their mortgage provider.

Fair enough. Understood. And just moving to something you said in terms of not seeing a pickup in the mortgage warehouse balances in this quarter, was that due to price sensitivity where you decided not to compete after a given point? Or was there something else that didn't lead to growth this quarter?

No. Our pricing is the same it's been. So I haven't seen a lot of industry data yet but...

We did see some other competitors report big numbers in mortgage warehouse. That having been said, we didn't change our pricing, so perhaps other...

Maybe they got cheaper.

Lowered pricing. Perhaps that would explain some spreads.

Our next question comes from Terry McEvoy of Stephens.

I was wondering if you could comment on the insurance business. Third quarter was down a little bit year-over-year if I'm little looking at the numbers correctly. And then, also, could you just remind us of the seasonality you typically see in that business?

Sure. So just for clarity, third quarter insurance commissions were actually up a little bit, 2% year-over-year, looking at Page 3 of the tables. But you're right, it was a very small amount, and it was certainly down quarter-to-quarter. There is seasonality in the quarter-over-quarter, so we do expect the third and fourth quarters to be slightly less than the first and second. But we were more hopeful that we'd see more year-over-year lift over the back half and it's been a little muted. I think the marketplace has been sort of a soft pricing market and so it hasn't necessarily benefited us the way we hope that would've, but we continue to sort of make good headway with clients and looking to cross-sell more and more of that business within our commercial book.

And we continue to look for opportunities through acquisition to grow the business.

And then, as a follow-up, do you have an updated view on the Bank Mutual systems conversion? And I ask that question really thinking about when the cost saves from the conversion then would fall to the bottom line.

The time line that we laid out when we announced the transaction on the last earnings call is still the time line that we're looking at.

And then, just lastly, mortgages you're putting on the portfolio, is there enough in-market 5/1 and 7/1 ARMs to support the growth, or are you building out some of that portfolio with out-of-market mortgages?

No, it's almost all in the market. There's -- we have some big cities in our markets, Chicago, Minneapolis, et cetera, so there's plenty of room.

Our next question comes from Nathan Race of Piper Jaffray.

I was just curious, in terms of the timing of the outflows of brokered CDs and network deposits in the quarter. Obviously, it was in the context of thinking around 4Q funding cost?

Yes. So I don't know that we would necessarily see a significant outflow. We obviously look to see what comes in on the core customer deposit side and manage between our network deposits, our Federal home loan bank advances and other borrowings to optimize our total cost for the quarter. But I don't think we had a plan to "push out" any of our network deposit providers per se.

If there are no further questions at this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Philip Flynn for closing comments.

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us today. In closing, we were pleased with the quarter's expanding bottom line, improving credit, efficiency dynamics and increased return on capital and really pleased that we announced our highest level of earnings and returns since 2008. So look forward to providing you with our full year results in January, and we'll roll out our guidance for the year ahead at that time. So if you have any questions, in the meantime, as always, give us a call, and thanks again for your interest in Associated.

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day.