艾睿電子 (ARW) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Arrow Electronics first-quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加艾睿電子 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Brad Windbigler, Arrow's Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給 Arrow 財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Brad Windbigler。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. I'd like to welcome everyone to the Arrow Electronics first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Sean Kerins; our Chief Financial Officer, Raj Agrawal; our President of Global Components, Rick Marano; and our President of Global Enterprise Computing Solutions, Eric Nowak.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家參加艾睿電子 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Sean Kerins；我們的財務長 Raj Agrawal；我們的全球零件總裁 Rick Marano；以及我們的全球企業運算解決方案總裁 Eric Nowak。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements including statements about our business outlook, strategies, plans, and future financial results which are based on our predictions and expectations as of today. Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including due to the risk factors and other factors described in this quarter's associated earnings release and our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any of the forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events.

在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括有關我們的業務前景、策略、計劃和未來財務業績的陳述，這些陳述基於我們今天的預測和預期。由於多種風險和不確定性，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異，包括本季度相關收益報告以及我們最近的 10-K 表年度報告和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述的風險因素和其他因素。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而公開更新或修改任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

As a reminder, some of the figures we will discuss on today's call are non-GAAP measures which are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results. We've reconciled these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in this quarter's associated earnings release. You can access our earnings release at investor.arrow.com, along with a replay of this call. We've also posted the slide presentation to this website to accompany our prepared remarks and encourage you to reference these slides during the webcast.

提醒一下，我們在今天的電話會議上討論的一些數據是非 GAAP 指標，並非旨在替代我們的 GAAP 結果。我們已將這些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標與本季度相關收益報告中最直接可比較的公認會計準則 (GAAP) 財務指標進行協調。您可以在 investor.arrow.com 上存取我們的收益報告以及本次電話會議的重播。我們也將幻燈片簡報發佈到此網站，以配合我們準備好的發言，並鼓勵您在網路廣播期間參考這些投影片。

Following our prepared remarks today, Sean and Raj will be available to take your questions. I'll now hand the call over to our President and CEO, Sean Kerins.

在我們今天的準備好的發言之後，肖恩和拉吉將回答大家的提問。我現在將電話交給我們的總裁兼執行長 Sean Kerins。

Thank you, Brad, and thank you all for joining us. Today, I'd like to discuss our first-quarter performance, provide some commentary on the broader market environment, and then close with some thoughts as we look to the balance of the year. I'll then turn things over to Raj for more detail on our financials as well as our outlook for the second quarter.

謝謝你，布拉德，也謝謝大家加入我們。今天，我想討論一下我們第一季的業績，對更廣泛的市場環境做出一些評論，然後在展望今年的平衡時提出一些想法。然後，我將把主題交給 Raj，以了解有關我們的財務狀況以及第二季度前景的更多詳細資訊。

For the first quarter, I'm pleased to report both consolidated and segment sales, as well as earnings per share that exceeded the high end of our guidance ranges. The overachievement was a function of several factors, most notably in global components, we saw improving trends across the broader market, including healthy momentum in EMEA.

對於第一季度，我很高興地報告合併和分部銷售額以及每股收益均超過了我們預期範圍的高端。業績超額完成是多種因素共同作用的結果，最顯著的是全球組成部分，我們看到整個市場呈現改善趨勢，包括歐洲、中東和非洲地區的健康發展勢頭。

Our enterprise computing solutions business delivered year-over-year billings growth with solid operating leverage, and we continue to benefit from both our value-added offerings and our ongoing expense management initiatives.

我們的企業運算解決方案業務憑藉穩健的營運槓桿實現了同比增長，並且我們繼續受益於我們的增值產品和持續的費用管理計劃。

Now taking a closer look at our global components business, our first-quarter results were highlighted by stronger sales than anticipated with all three regions performing ahead of typical seasonality. In addition to the momentum we cited in EMEA, we saw sequential improvement in our industrial markets on a global basis alongside resilience and transportation, especially in the West. Both verticals represent a significant portion of our overall mix. We also enjoyed sequential growth in the market for IP&E, underscoring our continued initiative to specialize our go-to-market efforts in this attractive segment.

現在仔細看看我們的全球零件業務，我們第一季的業績突出表現為銷售強勁超出預期，三個地區的業績都超出了典型的季節性。除了我們提到的歐洲、中東和非洲地區的發展動能之外，我們還看到全球工業市場、尤其是西方國家的復原力和運輸能力都出現了持續改善。這兩個垂直產業都佔據了我們整體業務組合的很大一部分。我們也享受了 IP&E 市場的連續成長，強調了我們繼續致力於在這一有吸引力的領域進行專業化的市場推廣工作。

Lastly, our value-added offerings, namely supply chain management and integration services, were once again accretive to our operating results.

最後，我們的加值產品，即供應鏈管理和整合服務，再次提升了我們的經營績效。

Now for some color commentary on a regional basis, our results in the Americas were highlighted by a return to sequential growth in both the industrial and transportation segments. In Asia, we saw improving momentum across a number of verticals, including compute and consumer markets, and given first-quarter Lunar New Year celebrations, we were pleased to see sales results ahead of seasonal expectations. And then finally, our performance in EMEA was marked by strong sales activity in our industrial, transportation, and aerospace and defense verticals.

現在從區域角度進行一些評論，我們在美洲的業績突出表現在工業和運輸領域都恢復了連續增長。在亞洲，我們看到包括計算和消費市場在內的多個垂直領域都在不斷改善，而且考慮到第一季農曆新年的慶祝活動，我們很高興看到銷售業績超出了季節性預期。最後，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現以工業、運輸、航空航太和國防垂直領域的強勁銷售活動為標誌。

Taking a closer look at the market more broadly, our leading indicators continue to trend positively. Our book to build ratios improved throughout the quarter and now sit at or above parity in all three regions. Even with steady and manageable lead times, our backlog is growing again and should contribute to improving this ability. And notably, industry-wide intelligence continues to indicate customer inventory levels and areas of the market are trending for replenishment.

更廣泛地觀察市場，我們的領先指標繼續呈現正面趨勢。我們的訂單與建造比率在整個季度都有所改善，目前在三個地區均達到或超過了平價。即使交貨時間穩定且可控，我們的積壓訂單仍在再次增加，這應該有助於提高這種能力。值得注意的是，全行業情報持續顯示客戶庫存水準和市場區域正呈現補貨趨勢。

Considering these and other factors, our guidance reflects our belief that demand trends are at a cyclical turning point and the business is beginning to return to more normal and seasonal patterns, creating a foundation for the future. As we move into the second quarter and consistent with the earlier stages of cyclical improvement, we do anticipate stronger trends in Asia and across the larger OEM customer base.

考慮到這些因素和其他因素，我們的指導反映了我們的信念，即需求趨勢正處於週期性轉折點，業務開始恢復到更正常和季節性的模式，為未來奠定了基礎。隨著我們進入第二季度，並與週期性改善的早期階段保持一致，我們確實預計亞洲和更大的 OEM 客戶群將呈現更強勁的趨勢。

Finally, rapidly evolving trade policies are clearly top of mind throughout the electronics industry. While we continue to both assess and mitigate the impacts of tariffs to our business, our top priority lies with our suppliers and customers. Leveraging our global supply chain network and related services offerings, whether aimed at improving their supply chain visibility or guiding them through effective component level selection, sourcing and staging options, we are well poised to help them navigate an uncertain trade landscape.

最後，快速變化的貿易政策顯然是整個電子產業最關注的問題。雖然我們繼續評估和減輕關稅對我們業務的影響，但我們的首要任務是我們的供應商和客戶。利用我們的全球供應鏈網路和相關服務產品，無論是旨在提高他們的供應鏈可見性，還是指導他們進行有效的組件級選擇、採購和分階段選項，我們都能夠幫助他們應對不確定的貿易狀況。

Specific to the impact of tariffs on near-term demand trends, we've not yet seen changes in customer behavior in the form of order acceleration to any material degree. While the tariff environment remains highly fluid, and until the dust fully settles, longer-term implications are more difficult to predict.

具體到關稅對近期需求趨勢的影響，我們尚未看到客戶行為以訂單加速的形式發生任何實質的變化。儘管關稅環境仍然高度不穩定，在塵埃完全落定之前，長期影響更加難以預測。

Now turning to our global ECS business, in the first quarter we again delivered year-over-year growth in billings, gross profit, and operating income. Generally speaking, what we experienced in the fourth quarter of 2024 continued into the early stages of 2025. Our top line momentum was characterized by continued strength in cloud and infrastructure software along with an uptick in hybrid cloud technologies.

現在轉向我們的全球 ECS 業務，第一季我們的帳單、毛利和營業收入再次實現同比增長。總體而言，我們在 2024 年第四季所經歷的情況將持續到 2025 年初。我們的營收成長動能表現為雲端和基礎設施軟體的持續強勁以及混合雲技術的上升。

Regionally, our performance in EMEA was broad-based with growth across all of our enterprise technology categories. And in North America, we saw improving activity levels in the enterprise data center along with continued acceleration of our cloud portfolio.

從地區來看，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現廣泛，所有企業技術類別都實現成長。在北美，我們看到企業資料中心的活動水準不斷提高，同時我們的雲端產品組合也持續加速發展。

Most importantly, our ECS backlog grew in the first quarter by more than 50% year over year. We believe this reflects our ongoing alignment to the higher growth demand trends across enterprise IT, many of which are now being served on an as-a-service basis. This continues to contribute to the growth of our recurring revenue volumes, now approaching 1/3 of our total buildings mix.

最重要的是，我們的 ECS 積壓訂單在第一季同比增長了 50％ 以上。我們相信，這反映了我們持續順應企業 IT 更高成長需求趨勢，其中許多趨勢目前都是以「即服務」的方式提供的。這繼續促進了我們經常性收入的成長，目前已接近我們總建築組合的 1/3。

Last quarter, we highlighted several factors that gave us a level of optimism regarding our full year outlook. These include recent supplier and customer base expansion wins along with the continued adoption of our aerosphere digital platform. Given that context, our second quarter outlook reflects continued momentum in both regions, poised again for year-over-year growth in billings, gross profit, and operating income when normalized.

上個季度，我們強調了幾個讓我們對全年前景充滿樂觀的因素。其中包括最近供應商和客戶群的擴展以及我們航空航太數位平台的持續採用。有鑑於此，我們對第二季的展望反映了兩個地區的持續成長勢頭，在正常化後，營業額、毛利和營業收入將再次實現同比增長。

In closing, we're encouraged by the positive momentum we see in both of our operating segments. We believe it's the result of modestly improving demand trends and our relentless pursuit of our growth priorities. While we recognize the current broader economic and geopolitical landscape contributes to uncertainty, we remain focused on the factors within our control, those that we believe will keep the business on an improving trajectory.

最後，我們對兩個營運部門所看到的正面動力感到鼓舞。我們相信這是需求趨勢適度改善和我們不懈追求成長重點的結果。雖然我們認識到當前更廣泛的經濟和地緣政治格局造成了不確定性，但我們仍然專注於我們能夠控制的因素，我們相信這些因素將使業務保持改善的軌跡。

Lastly, I'm grateful for and impressed by the resilience of all of our Arrow teams and employees across the globe. They continue to lead us through the most pronounced cyclical correction in recent memory, and they do so with determination and dedication each and every day.

最後，我對全球所有 Arrow 團隊和員工的堅韌精神深表感激和欽佩。他們繼續帶領我們度過近年來最明顯的周期性調整，並且每天都以堅定的決心和奉獻精神做到這一點。

With that, I'll hand things over to Raj.

說完這些，我就把事情交給 Raj。

Thanks, Sean.

謝謝，肖恩。

Consolidated sales for the first quarter, $6.8 billion exceeding our guidance range and down 2% versus prior year or flat year over year on a constant currency basis. Global component sales were $4.8 billion above our guidance range and down 1% versus prior quarter or flat sequentially in constant currency terms.

第一季綜合銷售額為 68 億美元，超出我們的預期範圍，以固定匯率計算，較上年下降 2%，或與去年持平。全球零件銷售額比我們的預期範圍高出 48 億美元，以固定匯率計算，季減 1%，或與上一季持平。

Enterprise computing solution sales were $2 billion above our guidance range and 18% higher versus prior year or 19% higher year over year in constant currency. ECS billings grew 5% in the quarter compared to the same period last year.

企業運算解決方案銷售額比我們的預期範圍高出 20 億美元，比上年增長 18%，以固定匯率計算比上年增長 19%。與去年同期相比，本季 ECS 帳單成長了 5%。

Moving to other financial metrics for the quarter. First-quarter consolidated non-GAAP gross margin of 11.3% was down approximately 120 basis points versus prior year driven primarily by overall mix in both global components and ECS. Sequentially, our consolidated gross margin was lower by 40 basis points due to seasonality within the ECS business. Global components gross margin was 11.6% and enterprise computing solutions was 10.8%, both on a non-GAAP basis.

轉向本季的其他財務指標。第一季綜合非公認會計準則毛利率為 11.3%，較前一年下降約 120 個基點，主要原因是全球組件和 ECS 的整體組合。由於 ECS 業務的季節性影響，我們的綜合毛利率較上月下降了 40 個基點。以非公認會計準則計算，全球組件毛利率為 11.6%，企業運算解決方案毛利率為 10.8%。

Our first-quarter non-GAAP operating expenses grew $13 million sequentially to $593 million as we balanced managing costs with reinvestment priorities. Non-GAAP expense levels continue to decline year over year, with the first quarter approximately $25 million lower compared to the same period last year, demonstrating the results of recent initiatives and our continuing focus on expense efficiency.

由於我們在管理成本和再投資優先事項之間取得平衡，我們第一季的非 GAAP 營運費用較上季增加 1,300 萬美元，達到 5.93 億美元。非公認會計準則費用水準持續逐年下降，第一季與去年同期相比下降了約 2,500 萬美元，這體現了近期措施的成果以及我們對費用效率的持續關注。

In the first quarter, we generated non-GAAP operating income of $179 million which was 2.6% of sales, with global components operating margin at 3.6% and enterprise computing solutions at 3.8%, both on a non-GAAP basis. Interest and other expense was $56 million in the first quarter, and our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 22.9%. And finally, non-GAAP diluted EPS for the first quarter was $1.80 which was above our guided range, mainly due to favorable sales results.

第一季度，我們的非公認會計準則營業收入為 1.79 億美元，佔銷售額的 2.6%，其中全球組件營業利潤率為 3.6%，企業計算解決方案營業利潤率為 3.8%，兩者均按非公認會計準則計算。第一季利息和其他支出為 5,600 萬美元，我們的非公認會計準則有效稅率為 22.9%。最後，第一季非公認會計準則稀釋每股收益為 1.80 美元，高於我們的指導範圍，這主要歸功於良好的銷售表現。

Turning to working capital, net working capital declined sequentially in the first quarter by approximately $340 million, ending the quarter at $6.4 billion. Inventory at the end of the first quarter was $4.8 billion. Our cash conversion cycle was unchanged in the first quarter at 77 days.

談到營運資本，第一季淨營運資本季減約 3.4 億美元，本季末為 64 億美元。第一季末的庫存為48億美元。我們第一季的現金轉換週期保持不變，為 77 天。

Our cash flow from operations was $352 million in the first quarter. This was the seventh consecutive quarter of positive cash flow generation. Gross balance sheet debt at the end of the first quarter was $2.8 billion. We repurchased $50 million of shares in the first quarter, and our remaining repurchase authorization stands at approximately $275 million. In the short term, we are continuing to balance our capital priorities with managing our debt ratios.

我們第一季的經營現金流為 3.52 億美元。這是連續第七個季度產生正現金流。第一季末的資產負債表總債務為 28 億美元。我們在第一季回購了價值 5,000 萬美元的股票，剩餘的回購授權約為 2.75 億美元。短期內，我們將繼續平衡資本優先事項和管理債務比率。

Now turning to Q2 guidance. We expect sales for the second quarter to be between $6.7 billion and $7.3 billion. We expect global component sales to be between $4.8 billion and $5.2 billion which at the midpoint is up 4.6% from prior quarters. In enterprise computing solutions, we expect sales to be between $1.9 billion and $2.1 billion, which is approximately up 7.5% at the midpoint year on year.

現在轉向第二季指引。我們預計第二季的銷售額將在 67 億美元至 73 億美元之間。我們預計全球零件銷售額將在 48 億美元至 52 億美元之間，中位數將較上一季成長 4.6%。在企業運算解決方案方面，我們預計銷售額將在 19 億美元至 21 億美元之間，年比中位數成長約 7.5%。

Recent tariffs represent uncertainty, though we have not factored in recently enacted policies into our revenue guidance. Based on what we know today in current policy, we estimate that incremental tariffs could increase global components sales by 2 to 4 percentage points sequentially, and we expect minimal impact on ECS sales.

儘管我們尚未將最近頒布的政策納入我們的收入指導中，但最近的關稅代表著不確定性。根據我們目前對現行政策的了解，我們估計增量關稅可能會使全球零件銷售額連續增加 2 至 4 個百分點，並且我們預計對 ECS 銷售額的影響微乎其微。

While tariffs introduce significant complexity, we are working with suppliers and customers end to end, and our focus remains on mitigating impacts through intelligent routing and where necessary, passing through and collecting incremental costs and potential credits.

雖然關稅帶來了巨大的複雜性，但我們正在與供應商和客戶進行端到端的合作，我們的重點仍然是透過智慧路由來減輕影響，並在必要時轉嫁和收取增量成本和潛在信用。

We're assuming a tax rate in the range of approximately 23% to 25% and interest expense of approximately $60 million. And our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is expected to be between $1.90 and $2.10.

我們假設稅率約為 23% 至 25%，利息支出約為 6,000 萬美元。我們的非公認會計準則每股攤薄收益預計在 1.90 美元至 2.10 美元之間。

And finally, given recent weakness in the US dollar, particularly relative to the euro, we estimate changes in foreign currencies to be a tailwind in the second quarter, increasing reported sales by approximately 80 basis points, or $60 million compared to the second quarter of 2024. The details of foreign currency impact can be found in our earnings release.

最後，鑑於近期美元疲軟，特別是相對於歐元，我們估計外幣變化將成為第二季度的順風，與 2024 年第二季度相比，報告銷售額將增加約 80 個基點，即 6000 萬美元。外匯影響的詳細資訊請參閱我們的收益報告。

With that, Sean and I are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please open the line.

現在，肖恩和我可以回答你們的問題了。接線員，請接通線路。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

（操作員指示）喬·夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)，富國銀行。

Yeah, thanks for taking the questions. Maybe first just in terms of the guidance commentary, can you help us just maybe understand a little bit more of what you're trying to say in terms of the 2% to 4% increase in component sales not included in the guide? Is that to mean that essentially that price increases or surcharges or whatever you want to call it for tariffs that's not contemplated in your guide for tariffs that could potentially go into effect for semiconductors that are right now exempt?

是的，感謝您回答這些問題。首先，就指導評論而言，您能否幫助我們更多地了解您想說的關於指導中未包括的零件銷售額增長 2% 至 4% 的意思？這是否意味著，對於目前免稅的半導體，您的關稅指南中未考慮的價格上漲或附加費或任何您想稱呼的關稅可能會生效？

And then how do you think about I guess like the past through of that or is that a potential kind of risk to EBIT as we think about the guidance?

那麼，當我們考慮指導時，您如何看待過去的情況，或者這是否會對 EBIT 造成潛在的風險？

Hey, Joe. Sure thing. Let me offer a little context as to how we've approached the tariffs puzzle and then I'll let Raj maybe speak to some of the details. He's been in the thick of this for several weeks now, as you might imagine. So as you probably know, tariffs aren't new for us, but we do recognize how much more complex the recently implemented tariffs are, and so we've been taking that pretty seriously based on what's actually been implemented.

嘿，喬。當然可以。讓我提供一些關於我們如何處理關稅難題的背景信息，然後我會讓拉吉談談一些細節。正如你可以想像的那樣，他已經陷入這種困境好幾個星期了。所以，正如您可能知道的，關稅對我們來說並不是什麼新鮮事，但我們確實認識到最近實施的關稅有多麼複雜，因此，根據實際實施的情況，我們一直非常認真地對待這個問題。

We feel like we've got a pretty good handle on the top line estimate, and that's where the 2% to 4% comes from. And you're right, that would represent basically surcharges or price uplifts to reflect the charges that we have to pass on and that we can't mitigate otherwise.

我們覺得我們對頂線估計有很好的把握，這就是 2% 到 4% 的來源。你說得對，這基本上代表著附加費或價格上漲，以反映我們必須轉嫁的費用，而我們無法透過其他方式減輕這些費用。

But we've also got a whole variety of mechanisms either in place or being put in place to mitigate margin risk. Those include things like intelligence sourcing and routing, foreign trade zone capabilities, and then a whole variety of process changes that we're implementing throughout our selling and support operations. I think even if existing or more significant tariffs don't take hold for the full year, we still have to largely assume they will and plan accordingly so that we're prepared accordingly.

但我們也已經建立或正在建立各種各樣的機制來降低保證金風險。這些包括情報來源和路線、外貿區能力，以及我們在整個銷售和支援營運過程中實施的各種流程變革。我認為，即使現有或更重要的關稅不會在全年生效，我們仍然必須在很大程度上假設它們會生效，並製定相應的計劃，以便我們可以做好相應的準備。

I think we feel like Q2 is going to be a very transitional quarter. There's still plenty of confusion at the customer level, a lot of uncertainty surrounding what's ultimately going to play out.

我認為我們感覺第二季將是一個非常過渡的季度。在客戶層面仍然存在許多困惑，對於最終結果有很多不確定性。

So with that, I'll let Raj maybe speak a little bit more to some of the numbers and how we're approaching the financials.

因此，我想讓 Raj 再多談談一些數字以及我們如何處理財務問題。

Yeah, Joe, we did want to call out the potential impact of the current tariff policies in a separate range because it is volatile. It keeps moving around, it's certainly complex as Sean just described, and so it is meant to be a 2 to 4 percentage point incremental benefit to the top line of global components. That's not in our baseline guide.

是的，喬，我們確實想在單獨的範圍內指出當前關稅政策的潛在影響，因為它是不穩定的。它一直在變化，正如肖恩剛才所描述的那樣，它確實很複雜，因此它旨在為全球零件的頂線帶來 2 到 4 個百分點的增量效益。這不在我們的基準指南中。

Our baseline guide is really meant to show you what we believe the core business is doing before we talk about the incremental impact of current tariff policy to the extent that something goes into place after today, that's not envisioned. It really is based on what we know today that's going to impact the top line. So we wanted to make sure that was called out separately. So it's very clear to you on the impacts that we're talking about.

我們的基準指南實際上是為了向您展示我們認為核心業務正在做什麼，然後再討論當前關稅政策的增量影響，以至於今天之後某些事情的發生是不可預見的。這確實是基於我們今天所知的將會影響營收的情況。因此，我們希望確保這一點能夠被單獨提出。因此，您非常清楚我們正在談論的影響。

And part of the reason for that, Joe, is we really wanted to give you our best view of the underlying business and how the cycle is really playing out because we think we're at kind of a modest turning point and we didn't want to conflate the two conversations.

喬，部分原因是我們真的想讓你了解我們對基礎業務以及週期如何真正發揮作用的最佳看法，因為我們認為我們正處於一個適度的轉折點，我們不想混淆這兩次談話。

Yeah, understood. And then I guess just to clarify, and I've got a follow-up, but just to clarify, the 2 to 4 percentage assumes that the export exemptions for semiconductors into the US that's currently enacted continues to the entire quarter, is that the right way to think about it?

是的，明白了。然後我想澄清一下，我還有一個後續問題，但只是為了澄清一下，2% 到 4% 的百分比假設目前頒布的對美國的半導體出口豁免將持續到整個季度，這是正確的想法嗎？

Yeah, the 2% to 4% assumes that everything that's in place as of right now continues on for the balance of the quarter. Obviously things could change, but we've not assumed any change at this stage.

是的，2% 到 4% 的成長率假設目前實施的所​​有措施都將在本季度剩餘時間內持續下去。顯然，事情可能會發生變化，但目前我們還沒有假設會發生任何變化。

Okay, and then just as a follow-up, you talked about customer inventories trending towards replenishment kind of stages, I guess how do we think about that comment relative to Arrow's inventory and the trends that we should expect to see there? Obviously, your inventory stayed somewhat elevated here, but I guess is it the right inventory in terms of where you're seeing the pull from customers?

好的，然後作為後續問題，您談到了客戶庫存趨向於補貨階段，我想我們如何看待相對於 Arrow 庫存的評論以及我們應該看到的趨勢？顯然，您的庫存在這裡仍然有點高，但我想，從您看到的客戶吸引力來看，這是正確的庫存嗎？

Yeah, Joe, in general, we think we're at a pretty good level just as a reminder, I think we talked about last quarter that since late '23, inventories had come down over $1 billion from their peak. I think we would consider the uptick in the first quarter of this year is fairly marginal, but your instinct is right.

是的，喬，總的來說，我們認為我們處於一個相當不錯的水平，提醒一下，我想我們上個季度討論過，自 23 年底以來，庫存已經從峰值下降了 10 多億美元。我認為我們會認為今年第一季的成長相當微不足道，但你的直覺是正確的。

We feel like our turns are roughly in line with current sales levels, they're kind of in line with historical ranges. So we feel pretty good about them. It doesn't mean that there aren't still pockets of excess inventory and with certain component types. But we're pretty comfortable that the aging profile of our inventory continues to improve.

我們覺得我們的營業額大致與目前的銷售水準一致，也與歷史範圍一致。所以我們對他們感覺很好。這並不意味著某些類型的零件不再存在過剩庫存。但我們非常高興地看到，我們的庫存老化狀況正在持續改善。

And as the industry continues to eat through pockets of excess, the good news here is that we see our inventory levels normalizing more closely in line with actual demand signals, and that's kind of where we want to be and that will tell us that the market is normalizing in the right direction.

隨著產業繼續消化過剩產能，好消息是，我們看到庫存水準正逐漸恢復正常，與實際需求訊號更加接近，這正是我們想要的，這將告訴我們市場正在朝著正確的方向正常化。

I would say though, to your point, since we're starting to see signs of incremental improvement, we also want to be on our front feet, not our heels. And so we've got to be conscious of what customers are going to need and we want to be able to support growth as and when the market recovers.

不過，我想說，正如你所說，既然我們開始看到逐步改善的跡象，我們也應該保持領先，而不是落後。因此，我們必須意識到客戶的需求，並且我們希望能夠在市場復甦時支持成長。

William Stein, Truist Securities.

威廉·斯坦（William Stein），Truist Securities。

Great, thank you. I'd like to revisit the inventory question. I maybe I didn't follow the question or the answer, but let me set it up this way. We just saw inventory increase and your inventory days are still, I don't know, 15 or 20 days above where you were a few years ago. Perhaps what you're saying and if so that's fine, I just want to get it clear, is this the approximately correct long-term level of inventories that we're shooting for, or are we still at an elevated level where over time we are trying to take it down?

太好了，謝謝。我想重新討論庫存問題。我可能沒有理解問題或答案，但請允許我這樣設定。我們剛剛看到庫存增加，而你們的庫存天數仍然比幾年前高出 15 天或 20 天。也許您說的是真的，如果是這樣，那很好，我只是想弄清楚，這是我們所追求的大致正確的長期庫存水平嗎，還是我們仍然處於較高的水平，隨著時間的推移，我們會試圖將其降低？

Will, I would start by saying that there are still some pockets of excess in our inventory profile as I just mentioned. We have seen the aging profile improve. There's still probably a little bit more work to do. So turns could get incrementally better across the course of the year, especially if what we suspect is playing out, does play out, but it won't be dramatic.

威爾，首先我想說的是，正如我剛才提到的，我們的庫存狀況仍然存在一些過剩的情況。我們看到老化狀況有所改善。可能還有一些工作要做。因此，全年情況可能會逐漸好轉，特別是如果我們懷疑的事情確實發生了，但不會是戲劇性的。

We don't feel we're far from where we ought to be, and I would say the one incremental difference between where we sit now versus where we might have a few years ago is we have been somewhat intentional about our commitment to the market for IP&E. That does require a different working capital profile so we can serve that business in the way that it's become accustomed to being served, but beyond that, no, we think we're in the right neighborhood.

我們不認為我們離我們應該達到的水平還有多遠，我想說，我們現在的水平與幾年前相比，唯一的一點區別是，我們在某種程度上有意地致力於 IP&E 市場。這確實需要不同的營運資金配置，以便我們能夠按照該業務習慣的方式為其提供服務，但除此之外，我們認為我們處於正確的位置。

Yeah, I just add that over the last year or since the peak of inventory levels that we had, we've actually brought them down by about $1 billion. And so I think that's a good result. We've also generated a lot of cash flow, which is what you would expect when the business is declining. But now as we go into growth mode, as you look at the absolute dollars, we're going to want to deploy working capital wherever it's needed. So yeah, the terms may look different or the number of days may look different, but those things will improve as the business grows.

是的，我只是想補充一點，在過去的一年裡，或者自從我們的庫存水準達到高峰以來，我們實際上已經將其降低了約 10 億美元。所以我認為這是一個很好的結果。我們也產生了大量現金流，這正是業務下滑時所預料到的。但現在，當我們進入成長模式時，當你看到絕對美元時，我們會希望將營運資金部署到任何需要的地方。是的，條款可能看起來不同，天數可能看起來不同，但隨著業務的成長，這些情況會得到改善。

Thank you. That's very helpful. One other if I can, I think you posted upside relative to the high in both in markets, but I want to focus on the systems business for a moment. Very strong revenue performance, especially relative to how you guided, and you've highlighted strength in Europe. A dynamic that many companies have highlighted this quarter is pull-ins in response to elevated future risks from tariffs, and I wonder if you think that is not what we're seeing in your business and if not, can you explain it for us?

謝謝。這非常有幫助。如果可以的話，我想再問一個問題，我認為您發布的股價相對於兩個市場的高點都有上漲，但我想暫時關註一下系統業務。收入表現非常強勁，特別是相對於您的指導而言，並且您強調了歐洲的優勢。本季度許多公司強調的一個動態是，為了應對未來關稅風險的上升而採取的措施，我想知道您是否認為這不是我們在您的業務中看到的情況，如果不是，您能為我們解釋一下嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, sure thing, Will. I kind of expected that question for the components business, not the ECS business, but there you go. We're pretty confident that we've not -- all right, well, let's start with where you started on the ECS business.

是的，當然可以，威爾。我以為這個問題是關於零件業務的，而不是 ECS 業務的，但你卻問了。我們非常有信心，我們沒有——好吧，讓我們從您開始 ECS 業務的地方開始。

First of all, I would just say the short answer is we're pretty confident that our outlook does not reflect any order acceleration in that business, and I think we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we feel really good about, which is the momentum we saw to close out the year continued into Q1 and we kind of see more of the same in Q2.

首先，我想簡單回答一下，我們非常有信心，我們的前景不會反映出該業務的任何訂單加速，我想我們在準備好的評論中提到過，我們對此感覺非常好，這是我們看到的在年底延續到第一季度的勢頭，我們在第二季度也看到了更多類似的勢頭。

We're kind of striking a good balance between the above average growth rates we're continuing to enjoy in cloud, along with some improvement in the traditional data center for hybrid cloud infrastructure along with continued growth in our infrastructure software portfolio. So I would say steady as she goes. We're obviously trying to make sure that we continue to execute as well in North America as we have been in Europe, but we like the path we're on.

我們在雲端運算領域持續享受的高於平均水準的成長率、混合雲端基礎設施的傳統資料中心的一些改進以及基礎設施軟體產品組合的持續成長之間取得了良好的平衡。所以我想說她要保持穩定。我們顯然正在努力確保我們在北美的業務表現與在歐洲一樣好，但我們喜歡我們現在所走的道路。

And it's important not to confuse the reported sales line with the gross billings line because what that will do from time to time is sort of create some volatility in the reported sales number from one quarter to the next, and that's largely a function of how we account for all the different SKUs that that team sells. But if you look at the underlying operating margins on a billings basis, they were flat year over year in Q1, and we assume they'll be at least flat year over year in Q2. The reported sales number will vary, but the underlying health of the businesses is strong and improving.

重要的是不要將報告的銷售額與總帳單額混淆，因為這會不時造成報告的銷售額從一個季度到下一個季度的波動，而這很大程度上取決於我們如何計算該團隊銷售的所有不同 SKU。但如果你從帳單角度來看基礎營業利潤率，你會發現第一季的營業利潤率與去年同期持平，我們預計第二季的營業利潤率至少會與去年同期持平。報告的銷售數字會有所不同，但企業的基本健康狀況強勁且正在改善。

Joseph Feldman, Bank of America.

美國銀行的約瑟夫‧費爾德曼。

Hi, this is Joseph on for Ruplu. Were you seeing any pull forward in the quarter?

大家好，我是 Ruplu 的 Joseph。您是否看到本季有任何進展？

Hey, Joe, I assume your question is one, more about our electronics business. And here's how we would answer that question. I'd start with, we didn't really see any material impacts in that way in Q1. And then we don't really see a whole lot of that playing out in our Q2 outlook either. We are seeing some of that in Asia, specifically China this quarter, but we don't think it's going to move the needle.

嘿，喬，我想你的問題是一個，更多是關於我們電子業務的。以下是我們對這個問題的答案。首先，我們在第一季確實沒有看到任何實質的影響。而且我們在第二季的展望中也沒有看到太多這樣的情況。本季我們在亞洲，特別是中國看到了一些這樣的情況，但我們認為這不會產生什麼影響。

And then when we look at our business in the US where you'd expect that question to be very valid. We're obviously monitoring this very closely, but when we break it down, we haven't seen an uptick in our quick turns activity. That would be evidence of a lot of order expedites, and we haven't seen that.

當我們審視我們在美國的業務時，你會發現這個問題非常有效。我們顯然正在密切監視這一點，但是當我們對其進行分解時，我們並沒有看到快速轉彎活動的增加。這將是大量訂單加急的證據，但我們還沒有看到這種情況。

And when we look at the backlog for our US business, we feel kind of good because it's not just building in magnitude. It's building out in time, meaning into Q3 and Q4. And obviously, if it was more about tariff avoidance, it would be more of the immediate term, and we haven't seen any abnormal uptick in order activity related to basically country of origin, China for content.

當我們看到美國業務的積壓訂單時，我們感覺很好，因為它不僅僅是在規模上增加。它正在及時構建，即進入第三季度和第四季度。顯然，如果這更多的是為了避免關稅，那麼它將更多的是短期的，我們還沒有看到與原產國中國相關的訂單活動有任何異常上升。

So all of those things tell us this outlook is probably not overly impacted by any of the tariff avoidance activity as best as we can see it today.

因此，所有這些因素都告訴我們，就我們今天所見，這種前景可能不會受到任何關稅規避活動的過度影響。

Okay, thank you, that makes a lot of sense. And then just one follow-up, so would you say you have improving visibility in C2 H25?

好的，謝謝，這很有道理。然後只有一個後續問題，那麼您認為 C2 H25 的可見度有所提高嗎？

Yeah, visibility is improving. We always said the preconditions for an uptick as we go through this cycle would be, first of all, industry-wide inventory levels have got to come down, right? The industry's got to eat through all the excess and so we think what we're seeing, what we saw in Q1, certainly in Europe and what we see in Q2 is a level of replenishment playing out. That had to happen.

是的，能見度正在提高。我們總是說，在我們經歷這個週期時，上升的先決條件首先是整個產業的庫存水準必須下降，對嗎？該行業必須消化所有過剩產能，因此我們認為，我們所看到的，我們在第一季度看到的情況，當然在歐洲，以及我們在第二季度看到的情況，都表明補貨正在發揮作用。這必定會發生。

And then beyond that you sort of say, well, what's going to signal, the potential for recovery. And we've always focused on three things. One, our book to build ratios have to improve, and they have. Two, backlog has to grow again. It grew again for the first time in quite some time in Q1, and we expect it to grow again in Q2. And as part of that, the backlog, as I said, is building out in time, not just in magnitude.

除此之外，你還可以說，嗯，什麼將預示著復甦的可能性。我們始終專注於三件事。首先，我們的帳面建設比率必須提高，而且已經提高了。二是積壓訂單又要增加。第一季度，它相當長一段時間以來首次再次成長，我們預計第二季度它還會再次成長。作為其中的一部分，正如我所說，積壓的訂單是隨著時間而增加的，而不僅僅是數量上的增加。

So our visibility into Q3 and Q4 is improving. And then the third condition, we always pay close attention to the whole portfolio of suppliers we represent because ultimately, they're going to lead us out of this and as we see their guides improve, we think ours should follow.

因此，我們對第三季和第四季的了解正在提高。第三個條件是，我們始終密切關注我們所代表的整個供應商組合，因為最終，他們會帶領我們走出困境，並且隨著我們看到他們的指南有所改進，我們認為我們的指南也應該隨之改進。

And that will conclude our question-and-answer session. I'll turn the call back over to Brad Windbigler for any closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我將把電話轉回給布拉德溫德比格勒 (Brad Windbigler)，請他發表最後評論。

Thank you all again for joining today's call. Have a great day.

再次感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。