艾睿電子 (ARW) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome to the Arrow Electronics fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加 Arrow Electronics 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Brad Windbigler, Arrows Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給 Arrows 財務主管兼投資者關係副總裁 Brad Windbigler。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. I'd like to welcome everyone to the Arrow Electronics fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today is our President and Chief Executive Officer, Sean Kerins; our Chief Financial Officer; Raj Agarwal; our President of Global Components, Rick Marano; and our President of Global Enterprise Computing Solutions, Eric Nowak.

謝謝您，接線生。歡迎大家參加 Arrow Electronics 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起參加電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Sean Kerins；我們的財務長；拉傑·阿加瓦爾；我們的全球零件總裁 Rick Marano；以及我們的全球企業運算解決方案總裁 Eric Nowak。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements, including statements about our business outlook, strategies, plans, and future financial results which are based on our predictions and expectations as of today.

在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，包括有關我們的業務前景、策略、計劃和未來財務業績的陳述，這些陳述基於我們今天的預測和預期。

Our actual results could differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties, including due to the risk factors and other factors described in this quarter's associated earnings release and our most recent filings with the SEC. We undertake no obligation to update publicly or revise any of the forward-looking statements as a result of new information for future events.

由於多種風險和不確定性，包括本季度相關收益報告和我們最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中描述的風險因素和其他因素，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。我們不承擔根據未來事件的新資訊公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

As a reminder, some of the figures we will discuss on today's call are non-GAAP measures which are not intended to be a substitute for our GAAP results. We've reconciled these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures in this quarter's associated earnings release.

提醒一下，我們在今天的電話會議上討論的一些數據是非 GAAP 指標，並非旨在替代我們的 GAAP 結果。我們已將這些非 GAAP 指標與本季度相關收益報告中最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標進行協調。

You can access our earnings release at investor.arrow.com along with a replay of this call. We've also posted a slide presentation to accompany our prepared remarks and encourage you to reference these slides during this webcast. Following our prepared remarks today, Sean and Raj will be available to take your questions.

您可以在 investor.arrow.com 上查看我們的收益報告以及本次電話會議的重播。我們也發布了幻燈片簡報以配合我們準備好的發言，並鼓勵您在本次網路廣播中參考這些投影片。在我們今天的準備好的演講之後，Sean 和 Raj 將回答大家的問題。

I'll now hand the call over to our President and CEO, Sean Kerins.

現在我將把電話交給我們的總裁兼執行長 Sean Kerins。

Thank you, Brad, and thank you all for joining us. Today, I'd like to share a few thoughts on 2024 as a whole. Then I'll comment on our fourth quarter performance, reflect on the markets in which we compete, and share our thinking as to how things are shaping up as we look to 2025. I'll then turn things over to Raj for more detail on our financials as well as our outlook for the first quarter.

謝謝你，布拉德，也謝謝大家加入我們。今天，我想分享一些關於 2024 年整體的想法。然後，我將評論我們第四季度的業績，反思我們競爭的市場，並分享我們對 2025 年情況的看法。然後，我將把問題交給 Raj，以了解有關我們的財務狀況以及第一季前景的更多詳細資訊。

Reflecting on 2024, it was a year that brought Arrow unique market conditions and challenges, but also opportunity. Given the ongoing correction in the broader semiconductor industry, I think we effectively navigated a challenging year while taking several steps to strengthen and position our global components business with the anticipated improvement in conditions ahead.

回顧 2024 年，這是為 Arrow 帶來獨特市場條件和挑戰的一年，但也帶來機會的一年。鑑於整個半導體行業正在經歷調整，我認為我們有效地度過了充滿挑戰的一年，同時採取了若干措施來加強和定位我們的全球零件業務，以應對未來預期的改善。

These include extending our line card and expanding our customer base, continuing our commitment to the offerings and capabilities that differentiate us with suppliers and customers, namely supply chain management, demand creation and engineering services, and realigning our business for global consistency and scale.

這些舉措包括擴展我們的產品線和擴大我們的客戶群，繼續致力於提供與供應商和客戶區分開來的產品和能力，即供應鏈管理、需求創造和工程服務，並重新調整我們的業務以實現全球一致性和規模。

In our enterprise computing solutions business, we fully aligned our go to market strategy across both regions and are laser-focused on the markets and demand trends for which we're best suited, namely, the adoption of hybrid-cloud and AI related solutions, especially in the mid-market.

在我們的企業運算解決方案業務中，我們完全調整了兩個地區的市場策略，並專注於最適合我們的市場和需求趨勢，即採用混合雲和人工智慧相關解決方案，尤其是在中端市場。

As a result, suppliers and channel partners are taking notice. We exited the year on a healthy trajectory and have growing confidence for the performance of this business in 2025.

因此，供應商和通路合作夥伴開始注意到這一點。我們以健康的軌跡結束了這一年，並對 2025 年這項業務的表現越來越有信心。

Now turning to our results. In the fourth quarter, we executed well relative to our original expectations, generating $7.3 billion in total sales and achieving non-GAAP earnings per share of $2.97, both surpassing the high-end of our guided ranges.

現在來談談我們的結果。第四季度，我們的業績表現優於我們最初的預期，總銷售額達到 73 億美元，非公認會計準則每股收益達到 2.97 美元，均超過了我們預期範圍的上限。

Taking a closer look at our global components business. We closed out the year with solid results despite challenging market conditions. On a global basis, despite continued softness across a number of verticals, we saw all three regions perform in line with or better than typical seasonal patterns.

仔細審視我們的全球零件業務。儘管市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們還是以穩健的業績結束了這一財年。從全球範圍來看，儘管多個垂直行業持續疲軟，但我們看到三個地區的表現均與典型的季節性模式一致或更好。

Our overall sales results were better in IP&E relative to our semiconductor business, reflecting the resilience of that segment throughout the cycle. Most notably, we saw sequential improvement in our industrial markets, driven by gains in both Asia and the Americas and in addition, our value-added offerings and capabilities contributed to gross margin stability during the quarter.

我們的IP＆E業務的整體銷售業績優於半導體業務，反映了該部門在整個週期中的彈性。最值得注意的是，我們的工業市場連續改善，這得益於亞洲和美洲的成長，此外，我們的增值產品和能力有助於本季毛利率的穩定。

On a regional basis, results were quite mixed. In Asia, stability and transportation and growth in industrial were offset by softness in consumer, compute and communications segments. In the Americas, our gains in the industrial market were offset by softness throughout the automotive sector. Aerospace and defense along with the medical device markets continue to be more resilient.

從地區來看，結果好壞參半。在亞洲，消費、電腦和通訊領域的疲軟抵消了穩定、運輸和工業的成長。在美洲，我們在工業市場的成長被整個汽車產業的疲軟所抵消。航空航太、國防以及醫療器材市場持續保持較強的彈性。

And finally, EMEA sequential revenue decline aligned with seasonal norms, potentially an encouraging trend given the region's later passage through the cycle. And despite a challenging macro environment, we're executing well in that region.

最後，EMEA 地區的連續收入下降與季節性規範一致，考慮到該地區較晚進入周期，這可能是令人鼓舞的趨勢。儘管宏觀環境充滿挑戰，但我們在該地區的表現仍然良好。

As for the market more broadly, we believe we're in the later innings of the industry's cyclical correction. The precise timing and pace of a broader market recovery are still difficult to predict, but we do continue to see incremental improvement in the key leading indicators for our business.

就更廣泛的市場而言，我們認為我們正處於行業週期性調整的後期。更廣泛的市場復甦的確切時間和步伐仍然難以預測，但我們確實繼續看到我們業務的關鍵領先指標逐漸改善。

Our book-to-bill ratio is now just shy of parity on a global basis with two of our three operating regions exiting Q4 at or near 1:1. Rescheduling and cancellation rates are fully normalized. Our visibility is steady, and our backlog is stabilizing.

目前，我們的訂單出貨比在全球範圍內略低於平價，我們三個營運區域中有兩個在第四季末達到或接近 1：1。重新安排和取消率已完全正常化。我們的可見度穩定，我們的積壓訂單也趨於穩定。

Lastly, industry-wide data points suggest the ecosystem inventory levels continue to decline, albeit slowly. Our Q1 guidance reflects a broader market still bouncing along the bottom. But as we look beyond the first quarter to the balance of the full year, we're cautiously optimistic about an improving trajectory.

最後，全產業數據點顯示生態系庫存水準持續下降，儘管速度很慢。我們的第一季指引反映出大盤仍在底部徘徊。但當我們將目光投向第一季之後、展望全年業績時，我們對改善的軌跡持謹慎樂觀的態度。

We think the declining inventory levels will eventually support, improved visibility in a modest recovery. We expect to see incremental volume related to our supplier and customer-based expansion efforts, and we believe our actions to further penetrate the market for IP&E, along with growth and value-added services will also contribute to our momentum.

我們認為庫存水準的下降最終將支撐經濟溫和復甦，並提高其可見度。我們預計，隨著我們基於供應商和客戶的擴張努力，銷售量將會增加，我們相信，我們進一步滲透 IP&E 市場的行動，以及成長和增值服務也將有助於我們的發展勢頭。

Nevertheless, as we've suggested in prior quarters, a broader recovery will be predicated upon improving outlooks across our supplier base.

然而，正如我們在前幾個季度所指出的那樣，更廣泛的復甦將取決於我們整個供應商群體的前景改善。

Now turning to our global ECS business. In the fourth quarter, we delivered year over year growth in billings, gross profit and operating income, underscoring our alignment to the higher growth demand trends across enterprise IT along with improving execution in our North American region.

現在轉向我們的全球 ECS 業務。第四季度，我們的營業額、毛利和營業收入年增，凸顯了我們順應企業 IT 更高成長需求趨勢以及在北美地區執行力提升的趨勢。

Strengthen hybrid-cloud solutions, infrastructure software, including cybersecurity and improving data center activity related to AI adoption drove our results. Our first quarter outlook anticipates similar trends. And as such, we expect to see year-over-year gross profit dollar growth in the first quarter from both regions and operating margin expansion for the business overall.

加強混合雲解決方案、基礎設施軟體（包括網路安全）以及改善與人工智慧採用相關的資料中心活動推動了我們的業績。我們的第一季展望預計會出現類似的趨勢。因此，我們預計第一季兩個地區的毛利將年增，整個業務的營業利潤率也將擴大。

And as we look to the full year, we're encouraged by several factors, including the benefit of our supplier and customer base expansion efforts in 2024, increasing adoption of our ArrowSphere digital platform, a growing backlog of cloud and infrastructure software, and the continued expansion of our recurring revenue volumes, all of which indicates our ECS business is poised for a solid year and a growing contribution to Arrows overall results.

展望全年，我們受到了多種因素的鼓舞，包括 2024 年供應商和客戶群擴展努力帶來的好處、ArrowSphere 數位平台的採用率不斷提高、雲端和基礎設施軟體積壓訂單不斷增加，以及我們經常性收入的持續擴大，所有這些都表明我們的 ECS 業務將迎來業績越來越大的一年，並對 Arrows 整體業績的貢獻。

In closing, though the industry downturn in our components business has been more prolonged than anticipated, we're confident in the longer-term outlook for the semiconductor industry and our business as a whole.

最後，雖然我們的元件業務的產業低迷期比預期的要長，但我們對半導體產業和整個業務的長期前景充滿信心。

We remain committed to our strategic priorities and continue to take healthy steps to position the business for the growth opportunities that lie ahead. In the meantime, I'd like to thank all of our employees around the world for their dedication to Arrow throughout 2024. I'm grateful for their commitment to our suppliers, our customers and especially each other.

我們將繼續致力於我們的策略重點，並繼續採取穩健的措施，為未來的成長機會做好準備。同時，我要感謝我們全球所有員工在 2024 年對 Arrow 的奉獻。我感謝他們對我們的供應商、客戶以及特別是彼此的承諾。

And with that, I'll hand things over to Raj.

說完這些，我就把事情交給拉傑 (Raj)。

Thanks, Sean. Consolidated sales for the fourth quarter were $7.3 billion above our guidance range and down 7% versus prior year. Global component sales were $4.8 billion above the midpoint of our guidance and down 3% versus prior quarter. Changes in foreign exchange rates reduced reported revenue by approximately 100 basis points compared to the prior quarter.

謝謝，肖恩。第四季綜合銷售額比我們的預期範圍高出 73 億美元，較上年同期下降 7%。全球零件銷售額比我們的預期中位數高出 48 億美元，比上一季下降 3%。與上一季相比，匯率變動導致報告收入減少了約 100 個基點。

Enterprise computing solutions sales were $2.5 billion above our guidance range and 12% higher versus prior year. ECS billings grew 10% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.

企業運算解決方案銷售額比我們的預期範圍高出 25 億美元，比去年同期成長 12%。與去年同期相比，第四季 ECS 營業額成長了 10%。

Moving to other financial metrics for the quarter. Fourth quarter consolidated non-GAAP gross margin of 11.7% was down approximately 90 basis points versus prior year driven primarily by overall mix and global components. Sequentially, our consolidated gross margin was higher by 20 basis points due to the seasonality within the ECS business.

轉向本季的其他財務指標。第四季綜合非公認會計準則毛利率為 11.7%，較前一年下降約 90 個基點，主要原因是整體產品組合和全球成分。由於 ECS 業務的季節性，我們的綜合毛利率比上季上升了 20 個基點。

Global components gross margin was 11.4% and enterprise computing solutions was 12.4% both on a non-GAAP basis. Our fourth quarter non-GAAP operating expenses grew $12 million sequentially to $580 million reflecting seasonal growth in our enterprise computing systems segment.

以非公認會計準則計算，全球零件毛利率為 11.4%，企業計算解決方案毛利率為 12.4%。我們第四季的非 GAAP 營業費用較上季增加 1,200 萬美元至 5.8 億美元，反映了企業運算系統部門的季節性成長。

Expense levels continue to decline year-over-year with the fourth quarter approximately $45 million lower compared to the same period last year, demonstrating the results of recent initiatives and our continuing focus on expense efficiency.

費用水準持續年減，第四季與去年同期相比下降約 4,500 萬美元，這體現了最近舉措的成果和我們對費用效率的持續關注。

In the fourth quarter, we generated non-GAAP operating income of $274 million which was 3.8% of sales with global components operating margin at 3.6% and enterprise computing solutions at 6.5%, both on a non-GAAP basis.

第四季度，我們創造了 2.74 億美元的非公認會計準則營業收入，佔銷售額的 3.8%，其中全球零件營業利潤率為 3.6%，企業計算解決方案營業利潤率為 6.5%，兩者均以非公認會計準則為基礎。

Interest and other expense was $60 million in the fourth quarter, and our non-GAAP effective tax rate was 24.9%. And finally, non-GAAP diluted EPS for the fourth quarter was $2.97 which was above our guided range due to favorable revenue levels.

第四季的利息和其他支出為 6,000 萬美元，我們的非 GAAP 有效稅率為 24.9%。最後，第四季度非 GAAP 稀釋每股收益為 2.97 美元，由於收入水平良好，高於我們的預期範圍。

Turning to working capital. Net working capital declined sequentially in the fourth quarter by approximately $170 million ending the quarter at $6.7 billion. Inventory at the end of the fourth quarter was $4.7 billion. This represents a $1.1 billion reduction from our peak inventory levels five quarters prior.

轉向營運資金。第四季淨營運資本季減約 1.7 億美元，季末降至 67 億美元。第四季末庫存為47億美元。這意味著我們庫存水準較五個季度前的高峰減少了 11 億美元。

Our cash conversion cycle modestly declined in the fourth quarter to 77 days. Our cash flow from operations was $326 million in the fourth quarter and $1.1 billion for the full year. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of positive cash flow generation.

我們的現金轉換週期在第四季略有下降至 77 天。我們第四季的營運現金流為 3.26 億美元，全年經營現金流為 11 億美元。這是連續第六個季度產生正現金流。

Gross balance sheet debt at the end of the fourth quarter was $3.1 billion. We repurchased $50 million of shares in the fourth quarter, and our remaining repurchase authorization stands at approximately $325 million. For the full year, we repurchased $250 million of our stock. In the short term, we are continuing to balance the capital priorities with managing our debt ratios.

第四季末的資產負債表總債務為 31 億美元。我們在第四季回購了價值 5,000 萬美元的股票，剩餘的回購授權約為 3.25 億美元。全年我們回購了價值 2.5 億美元的股票。短期內，我們將繼續在資本優先與管理負債比率之間取得平衡。

Now turning to Q1 guidance. We expect sales for the first quarter to be between $5.98 billion and $6.58 billion. We expect global component sales to be between $4.35 billion and $4.75 billion, which at the midpoint is down approximately 5.5% from prior quarter.

現在轉向第一季指引。我們預計第一季的銷售額將在 59.8 億美元至 65.8 億美元之間。我們預計全球零件銷售額在 43.5 億美元至 47.5 億美元之間，中間值較上一季下降約 5.5%。

In enterprise computing solutions, we expect sales to be between $1.63 billion and $1.83 billion which is approximately unchanged at the midpoint year on year. For the company overall, we expect relatively stable gross margin sequentially.

在企業運算解決方案方面，我們預計銷售額將在 16.3 億美元至 18.3 億美元之間，與去年同期相比基本持平。對於公司整體而言，我們預期毛利率將較上季相對穩定。

We're also assuming a tax rate in the range of approximately 23% to 25% and interest expense of approximately $60 million to $65 million. And our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share is expected to be between $1.30 and $1.50.

我們也假設稅率約為 23% 至 25% 之間，利息支出約為 6,000 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元。我們的非公認會計準則攤薄每股收益預計在 1.30 美元至 1.50 美元之間。

And finally, given the strength in the US dollar, particularly relative to the euro, we estimate changes in foreign currencies to be a headwind in the first quarter, decreasing reported sales by approximately 200 basis points or $140 million compared to the first quarter of 2024. The details of the foreign currency impact can be found in our earnings release.

最後，鑑於美元走強，特別是相對於歐元，我們估計第一季外幣變化將是一個阻力，與 2024 年第一季相比，報告的銷售額將下降約 200 個基點或 1.4 億美元。外匯影響的詳細資訊請參閱我們的收益報告。

With that, Sean and I are now ready to take your questions. Operator, please open the line.

現在，我和肖恩已經準備好回答大家的問題了。接線員，請接通線路。

(Operator Instructions) Melissa Fairbanks, Raymond James and Associates.

（操作員指示）梅麗莎·費爾班克斯（Melissa Fairbanks），雷蒙·詹姆斯（Raymond James）及其同事。

Hey guys, thanks so much. Great quarter, great results. Good to see continued progress on the inventory front. I had one question for you, maybe for Raj, wondering if you guys happen to see any pull-ins in the December quarter either ahead of potential tariff activity, annual price increases, or some end-of-life activity on some of the higher end devices. I think one of your peers last week cited something at least some benefit in the December quarter.

嘿夥計們，非常感謝。出色的季度、出色的業績。很高興看到庫存繼續取得進展。我有一個問題想問你，也許是想問 Raj，想知道你們是否碰巧在 12 月季度看到任何拉動，無論是在潛在的關稅活動、年度價格上漲，還是在某些高端設備的停產活動之前。我認為您的一位同事上週提到了 12 月季度至少存在一些好處。

Yeah. Hi, Melissa. Thanks for joining us. We did not see anything material due to any of those factors in our Q4 sales numbers.

是的。你好，梅麗莎。感謝您的加入。在我們的第四季銷售數據中，我們沒有看到任何因這些因素而產生的重大影響。

Okay. Great. And then just not to keep referencing other people's results, but one of your larger suppliers earlier this week had noted that while pricing was pretty benign for the past couple of years, they do expect to return to kind of a more normalized pricing environment with low single-digit annual price concessions.

好的。偉大的。然後，並不是一直引用其他人的結果，但本週早些時候，你們的一家較大的供應商指出，雖然過去幾年的價格相當溫和，但他們確實預計價格會回到一種更加正常化的價格環境，每年的價格優惠幅度將在個位數以下。

I'm wondering if you're also seeing that, if that just flows through in terms of your -- just the inventory that you have, you're pricing it and passing that along?

我想知道您是否也看到了這一點，如果這只是按照您的庫存來流動，您會對其進行定價並將其傳遞下去嗎？

Well, I think this will help. I mean, as you know, our gross margins were stable from Q3 to Q4 in our global component segment. Our best data tells us that transactional margins in our core markets have held up for the most part this year, and we kind of assume the same for Q1 and our Q1 outlook as well.

嗯，我認為這會有所幫助。我的意思是，如您所知，我們全球零件部門的毛利率從第三季到第四季保持穩定。我們的最佳數據告訴我們，我們核心市場的交易利潤率今年大部分時間都保持穩定，我們對第一季以及第一季前景的預期也大致如此。

Joe Quatrochi, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的喬‧夸特羅奇 (Joe Quatrochi)。

Yeah. Thanks for taking the questions. Curious as we think about just the -- you talking about your bookings visibility maybe improving. I guess, how do we think about just the inter-quarter turns demand that drove upside in 4Q and what's your assumption in 1Q for that?

是的。感謝您回答這些問題。我們很好奇，正如您所說，您的預訂可見度可能會提高。我想，我們如何看待推動第四季上行的季度間需求以及您對第一季的假設是什麼？

You mean it's something different than our guide?

你的意思是它和我們的指南不同嗎？

Just trying to understand (multiple speakers) yeah, just trying to understand that the inter-quarter turns demand that you saw from your customers are just like just in time demand. You saw in 4Q and that being a driver of upside in the fourth quarter on the component side, and then just how do we think about that dynamic in the first quarter? Are you expecting that to maybe normalize as bookings are starting to improve?

只是想了解（多位發言者）是的，只是想了解您從客戶那裡看到的季度間需求就像及時需求一樣。您在第四季度看到了這一點，這是推動第四季度零件方面上漲的一個因素，那麼我們如何看待第一季度的這種動態呢？隨著預訂量開始改善，您是否預期這種情況可能會恢復正常？

Got it. Thank you. Well, the first thing I think we'd say is that we are seeing some mixed trends across regions and verticals. So we're not surprised by some ebb and flow from one quarter to the next. I would say that our turns business as you characterize it was relatively stable from Q3 to Q4, and we think it'll be relatively stable again in Q1.

知道了。謝謝。嗯，我想我們首先要說的是，我們看到了跨地區和垂直行業的一些混合趨勢。因此，我們對一個季度到下一個季度的起伏並不感到驚訝。我想說的是，我們的營業額正如您所描述的那樣從第三季到第四季相對穩定，我們認為它在第一季將再次相對穩定。

Obviously, the big wild card is the mass market overall and when that fully recovers. We think that as inventories gradually continue to decline that will be a stimulus for basically better visibility, more normal ordering patterns and then a backlog which will improve, but it's a little difficult to call beyond, say, 90 days at a time.

顯然，最大的不確定因素是整個大眾市場以及何時全面復甦。我們認為，隨著庫存逐漸下降，這將刺激庫存的可見性提高，訂購模式更加正常，然後積壓情況會有所改善，但要超過 90 天就有些困難了。

Okay. Fair enough. And then, can you help us this -- Raj, helps us understand that the OpEx dynamics embedded in the 1Q guide, given -- I think your comment was relatively stable gross margins. And then how do we flow in the cost savings of some of the restructuring that you're doing?

好的。很公平。然後，您能否幫助我們——Raj，幫助我們了解第一季指南中嵌入的營運支出動態，鑑於——我認為您的評論是相對穩定的毛利率。那麼我們如何將您所進行的一些重組所節省的成本納入其中呢？

Yeah. Absolutely. The way I think about it, Joe, is that if you look back 18 months in the middle of 2023 when we began some of the larger cost efficiency programs, we were running at a quarterly expense rate of [$650 million to $670 million]. And since then, we've taken at least $200 million of costs, annual costs out of the business.

是的。絕對地。喬，我的想法是，如果你回顧 2023 年中期的 18 個月，當時我們開始實施一些較大的成本效率計劃，我們的季度費用率為[6.5 億美元至 6.7 億美元]。從那以後，我們每年從該業務中節省了至少 2 億美元的成本。

So that implies that we're down $50 million quarterly or $600 million as an OpEx number, and that's probably a better starting point as you look at the first quarter. And then as we announced in the fourth quarter of last year, we also plan to get an additional $90 million to $100 million of savings of which we should get about third this year. So there's further opportunities from that number and then, we're certainly investing back in the business as well beyond that. So hopefully that helps a little bit.

所以這意味著我們每季下降 5000 萬美元或營運支出下降 6 億美元，這可能是第一季更好的起點。正如我們在去年第四季宣布的那樣，我們還計劃額外節省 9,000 萬至 1 億美元，今年應該可以節省三分之一左右。所以這個數字也意味著更多的機會，而且我們肯定會對業務進行進一步的投資。希望這能有一點幫助。

Ruplu Bhattacharya, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Ruplu Bhattacharya。

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Sean, I think you said in the prepared remarks that we're in the late innings of inventory correction. What is giving you confidence that this is almost over? Or is that what you meant and which parts are still in excess in the supply chain?

你好。感謝您回答我的問題。肖恩，我想你在準備好的演講中說過，我們正處於庫存調整的後期。什麼讓您有信心這一切即將結束？或者這就是您的意思，供應鏈中哪些零件仍然過剩？

Well, Ruplu, I'd like to think that it's almost over. I think we believe it's later innings because we have seen inventory levels slowly decline more broadly. You can imagine we triangulate a variety of data points each quarter to get a good read on where we think inventory levels are, not to mention our own.

好吧，魯普魯，我想這一切都快結束了。我認為我們相信這是後期的事情，因為我們已經看到庫存水準緩慢下降。你可以想像，我們每季都會對各種數據點進行三角測量，以準確了解我們認為的庫存水平，更不用說我們自己的庫存水平了。

Having said that, obviously, the broader market and the return of the mass market is still a question as to when it returns at more scale. But we think that we've got a good handle on the first quarter. We think given where our book to build ratios sit and given what we see in our current visibility and backlog patterns that we are at the bottom.

話雖如此，但顯然更廣泛的市場和大眾市場的回歸何時能更大規模地回歸仍是一個問題。但我們認為，我們對第一季的掌握很好。我們認為，考慮到我們的預定建設比率，以及我們看到的當前可見性和積壓模式，我們處於底部。

And there is a path to improvement across the course of the full year. It's partly market dependent. But it's also a function of what I just described as inventories do come down if they come down at the rate that we expect. And then, we've also been really busy on the business development front.

並且全年都有改進的途徑。這在一定程度上取決於市場。但這也是我剛剛描述的函數，如果庫存以我們預期的速度下降，那麼庫存就會下降。然後，我們在業務發展方面也非常忙碌。

We've taken some matters into our own hands, and we believe there's some wins, both on the supplier and customer base front. That will roll into the business throughout the course of the year. And that will help too. Again, the wildcard is the broader market overall. That one we can't call and we can't control, but we think there's some improving factors within our mix and within our longer-term outlook.

我們已經著手處理一些問題，我們相信，無論從供應商或客戶角度而言，我們都將獲得一些利益。這將貫穿全年的業務。這也會有幫助。再次強調，不確定因素是整體大盤。我們無法預測也無法控制，但我們認為我們的組合和長期前景中存在一些改善因素。

And the second part of my question was there -- are there specific parts that are still excess? Are there specific type of components that are in excess in the inventory?

我的問題的第二部分是──還有哪些具體部分是多餘的？庫存中是否存在特定類型的過剩零件？

Nothing material in any one particular component type, Ruplu. As Raj mentioned, we've brought down our total inventories by over $1 billion from their peak in, I think, Q3 of '23. I think our turns were up year-on-year in Q4, and our units were down, both quarter to quarter and year on year as well.

在任何一個特定的組件類型中都沒有任何材料，Ruplu。正如 Raj 所提到的，我們的總庫存已從 23 年第三季的高峰下降了 10 多億美元。我認為，我們第四季的營業額年增了，但銷量卻下降了，無論是環比還是同比。

So I think we're doing a pretty good job of managing inventory. It doesn't mean -- we still don't have pockets of excess here and there, but we're not too concerned about the quality of our inventory overall. We certainly don't see any long-term obsolescence challenges that we haven't adequately reserved for.

所以我認為我們在庫存管理方面做得很好。這並不意味著——我們仍然沒有庫存過剩的情況，但我們總體上並不太擔心庫存的品質。我們當然沒有看到任何我們尚未充分預留的長期過時挑戰。

Okay. Thanks for the details there. If I can ask one question to Raj, for both of the segments, the global components and for ECS, can you help us think about -- how should we think about the margin progression between 4Q and 1Q?

好的。感謝您提供的詳細資訊。我可以問 Raj 一個問題，針對兩個部門、全球組件和 ECS，您能幫助我們思考一下——我們應該如何看待第四季度和第一季之間的利潤率成長？

I mean, how do you see the mix of geographies and global components? How is that going to impact margins? And how do you see the mix impacting margins in ECS? So any color if you can give us on how you see the sequential change in operating margins in 1Q for both of the segments. Thank you.

我的意思是，您如何看待地域和全球成分的混合？這會對利潤產生什麼影響？您認為這種組合對 ECS 的利潤率有何影響？因此，如果您能告訴我們您如何看待兩個部門第一季的營業利潤率的連續變化，請提供具體資訊。謝謝。

Yeah. As I mentioned briefly in my comments, for both segments, I see gross margins being relatively stable from Q4 to Q1. We did have some mixed related impacts in the fourth quarter from Q3, but if you just think about ECS has its biggest quarter, seasonal quarter in the fourth quarter and its lowest quarter in the first quarter.

是的。正如我在評論中簡要提到的，對於這兩個部門，我認為從第四季度到第一季的毛利率相對穩定。與第三季度相比，我們在第四季度確實受到了一些混合相關影響，但如果你想想，ECS 最大的季度、季節性季度是在第四季度，而最低的季度是在第一季。

And so, there's some step down just from a seasonality standpoint, but I think gross margins will hold relatively well. And it's really a question of negative leverage from the components business that steps down operating margins going into Q1.

因此，從季節性的角度來看會有一些下降，但我認為毛利率將保持相對較好。這實際上是零件業務負槓桿的問題，導致第一季的營業利潤率下降。

Yeah. Ruplu, I would just add, the biggest driver of the step down for EPS overall is the sharp seasonality in our ECS business as Raj correctly mentions. Q1 is the smallest of the year for that business. So it has an impact on the corporation overall.

是的。Ruplu，我想補充一點，正如 Raj 正確提到的那樣，導致 EPS 總體下降的最大原因是我們的 ECS 業務的劇烈季節性變化。第一季是該業務今年以來業績最小的一個季度。所以它對整個公司有影響。

But I would also say that the best way to look at the ECS business is really on a year-over-year basis as we've talked versus in components, we tend to look at things on a sequential basis for all the right reasons, but we will see year-on-year operating margin expansion in that business for sure.

但我也想說，看待 ECS 業務的最佳方式實際上是按年進行，正如我們所討論的那樣，相對於組件而言，我們傾向於按順序來看待事物，這是所有正確的理由，但我們肯定會看到該業務的營業利潤率逐年擴大。

Okay. And sorry, just on the component segment, do you see any change in the geographic mix? I mean, do you think Europe still remains weak in 1Q and Asia is strong? Or how should we think about this relative mix of regions impacting margins?

好的。抱歉，僅就組件部分而言，您是否看到地理分佈有任何變化？我的意思是，您是否認為歐洲在第一季仍然保持疲軟而亞洲表現強勁？或者我們應該如何看待這些區域相對組合對利潤的影響？

Yeah. I think you're on the right track. We see fairly seasonal patterns for us in Asia and the Americans, but our outlook in Europe is sub-seasonal, given all the macro challenges we face in that market.

是的。我認為你的思路是對的。我們發現亞洲和美洲的市場模式具有相當強的季節性，但考慮到我們在歐洲市場面臨的所有宏觀挑戰，我們在歐洲的前景是次季節性的。

(Operator Instructions) William Stein, Truist Securities.

（操作員指示）William Stein，Truist Securities。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Another one on inventories. I received some messages from investors who were a bit surprised, the inventory ticked up in dollars in Q4. And I guess a little bit surprised given -- I want to acknowledge there's been good progress from the inventory peak. But I still think this is above what you would target.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。另外一個是關於庫存的。我收到了一些投資者的消息，他們有點驚訝，第四季的庫存以美元計算有所上漲。我想說的是，我有點驚訝——我想承認庫存高峰已經取得了良好的進展。但我仍然認為這超出了你的目標。

So maybe first you can help me understand is there a target level that you'd like to talk to us about where you'd like to take inventories in the long-term? And then shorter term, is this just a matter of some stuff in your inventory? Perhaps not moving as quickly, so the number that we looked at on their balance sheet may not really represent the turns activity that you're doing because some of it's stuck and other stuff's moving much faster. Any help around that would be great. Thank you.

因此，也許首先您可以幫助我了解，您是否願意與我們討論長期盤點的目標水平？那麼從短期來看，這只是你庫存中的一些東西的問題嗎？可能進展得沒有那麼快，所以我們在他們的資產負債表上看到的數字可能並不能真正代表你正在進行的周轉活動，因為其中一些活動停滯了，而其他一些活動進展得更快。任何有關這方面的幫助都將非常有幫助。謝謝。

Sure thing, Will. Let me come back at that again. I think, similar to Ruplu's question, there aren't any significant pockets of excess or slow moving in the overall mix that stand out in a way that we're overly concerned.

當然可以，威爾。讓我再回顧一下這一點。我認為，與 Ruplu 的問題類似，整體組合中不存在任何明顯的過剩或緩慢現象，以致於引起我們過度擔憂。

I think, I mentioned, we believe we've got a lot of good inventory. It's just taking longer to sell. That's really what we're up against, but if you ask us about the target levels, we typically focus at turns. It's a key metric for us and we're starting to approach historical turn rates similar to what we saw pre-pandemic and pre-severe shortage environment.

我想，我提到過，我們相信我們有很多優質庫存。只是銷售時間要長一些。這確實是我們面臨的問題，但如果你問我們的目標水平，我們通常會專注於轉彎。這對我們來說是一個關鍵指標，我們開始接近與疫情大流行之前和嚴重短缺環境之前類似的歷史週轉率。

And the other is really working capital is a percent of sales. And I think the way that gets better is more about the denominator than the numerator. And as the mass market returns, we think we're going to like where that metric heads as well. So I don't know that that's completely satisfying for you, Will, but we don't have any big material one timers in our mix that we're overly concerned about.

另一個是實際營運資本佔銷售額的百分比。我認為，讓結果變得更好的方法更多的是分母而不是分子。隨著大眾市場的回歸，我們認為我們也會喜歡這個指標的發展方向。所以我不知道這是否讓你完全滿意，威爾，但是我們的組合中沒有任何讓我們過分擔心的大型一次性材料。

That's helpful. Maybe one more if I can. It sounds like based on your earlier comments about feeling like you're in the latter innings of this dynamic that you must have a view to customer inventories being either bottomed or approaching that. Any commentary on that, please?

這很有幫助。如果可以的話也許還會再來一個。聽起來，根據您先前的評論，您感覺自己正處於這種動態的後期，您必須認為客戶庫存要么已經觸底，要么正在接近觸底。對此您有何評論？

Yeah. We think that broadly. Again, this is a broad statement. You can only triangulate so many data points at once, but we think broadly in our core markets, inventories are creeping down. We'd love to see them come down more quickly, but that's ultimately a function of the broader economic and demand environment. We can't control that.

是的。我們對此有廣泛的看法。再次強調，這是一個廣泛的說法。您一次只能對這麼多數據點進行三角測量，但我們認為，在我們的核心市場中，庫存正在逐漸下降。我們希望看到它們更快下降，但最終取決於更廣泛的經濟和需求環境。我們無法控制這一點。

But we do see them creeping down and we do know that eventually that means order patterns will normalize, and our visibility will improve, and our backlog will grow. Again, we think those things are steady now for us versus in decline, but we obviously need them to grow to signal a broader recovery.

但我們確實看到它們逐漸下降，我們也知道，這最終意味著訂單模式將正常化，我們的可見度將提高，我們的積壓訂單將會增加。我們再次認為，目前這些因素對我們來說是穩定的，而不是下降的，但我們顯然需要它們成長以預示更廣泛的復甦。

And two, like keep in mind that we're always conscious of the changing dynamics of our customers and their production schedules, and we've got thousands and thousands of customers. So, yeah, we do want to be leaning in when the market recovers so that we can best support them.

第二，請記住，我們始終關注客戶及其生產計劃的變化動態，我們有成千上萬的客戶。所以，是的，我們確實希望在市場復甦時能夠盡力為他們提供支援。

And so, we're not too far on our heels here. At the same time, we're careful not to lean too forward on our toes either at the same time. We're managing that balance, I think, very carefully.

所以，我們並沒有落後太多。同時，我們也要小心，不要讓腳趾過度向前傾。我認為，我們正在非常謹慎地維持這種平衡。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Brad Windbigler for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。現在我將把電話轉回給布拉德溫德比格勒 (Brad Windbigler)，請他作最後發言。

Thank you all for joining today's call. We look forward to meeting with you at upcoming investor events. Have a good day.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們期待在即將舉行的投資者活動中與您會面。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。