使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Greetings, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Array Technologies Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)
各位女士、先生,大家好,歡迎參加 Array Technologies 2021 年第三季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)
It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Cody Mueller. Thank you. You may begin.
現在我很榮幸為各位介紹本次會議主持人 Cody Mueller。謝謝。您可以開始了。
Cody Mueller - VP of Finance & IR
Cody Mueller - VP of Finance & IR
Good evening, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Array Technologies Third Quarter 2021 results. Slides for today's presentation are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, arraytechinc.com.
各位晚安,感謝各位參加今天的電話會議,與我們一同討論 Array Technologies 2021 年第三季業績。今日簡報投影片可於我們網站 arraytechinc.com 的投資人關係專區取得。
During this conference call, management will make forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect because of other factors discussed in today's earnings press release, the comments made during this conference call or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which can be found on our website, arraytechinc.com. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements.
在本次電話會議中,管理層將基於目前的預期與假設發表前瞻性陳述,該等陳述受風險與不確定性影響。若我們的任何關鍵假設不正確,或因今日財報新聞稿、此次電話會議中的評論,或我們近期向美國證券交易委員會提交之報告與申報文件(可於我們網站 arraytechinc.com 查閱)所討論的其他因素影響,實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述存在重大差異。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述之義務。
Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the company's third quarter press release for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP financial measures.
今日簡報亦包含對非 GAAP 財務衡量指標的引用。請參閱公司第三季新聞稿中所載之定義資訊,以及歷史非 GAAP 指標與可比 GAAP 財務指標之調節表。
With that, let me turn the call over to Jim Fusaro, Array Technologies' CEO.
接下來,我把電話交給 Array Technologies 執行長 Jim Fusaro。
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Thanks, Cody, and good evening, everyone. Thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. In addition to Cody, I'm joined by Nipul Patel, our Chief Financial Officer; and Brad Forth, our Board Chairman. I'll start off today by providing an update on our business. Then I'll turn it over to Nipul to cover our third quarter financials, and then Brad will discuss our acquisition of STI.
謝謝你,Cody,各位晚安。感謝各位參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。除了 Cody 之外,與我一同出席的還有我們的財務長 Nipul Patel,以及董事會主席 Brad Forth。我今天將先就我們的業務提供最新進展。接著我會把時間交給 Nipul 說明第三季財務表現,然後 Brad 將討論我們收購 STI 一事。
Turning to Page 5 of the slides. Today, there are a couple of major themes that work in our business. The first, the supply chain issues that have been impacting everyone in the solar business are continuing. Panels are still hard to get, and both ocean and overland freight is incredibly constrained. The result is project delays and higher shipping costs for suppliers like us.
請翻到投影片第 5 頁。今天,我們業務中有幾個主要主題。第一,影響整個太陽能產業的供應鏈問題仍在持續。面板仍然難以取得,海運與陸運運力都極度吃緊。其結果是專案延宕,以及像我們這樣的供應商面臨更高的運輸成本。
The good news is that we are seeing both suppliers and customers adapt to this new environment. Prices are starting to stabilize, albeit at higher levels. Our suppliers are charging us more, and we are charging our customers more. Everyone is recognizing that longer lead times are required for everything. We are not sure how long it will take for our business to return to what it was like, but we do feel the situation is stabilizing, and we are optimistic that we are getting to a place where there will be fewer and fewer supply chain-related surprises.
好消息是,我們看到供應商與客戶都在適應這個新環境。價格開始趨於穩定,儘管是在較高水準上。我們的供應商向我們收取更高費用,而我們也向客戶提高價格。大家都認知到,所有事項都需要更長的交期。我們不確定業務要多久才能回到過去的狀態,但我們確實感覺情勢正在穩定,我們也樂觀認為,供應鏈相關的意外將會愈來愈少。
Now importantly, despite the supply chain challenges and higher prices, demand for solar has only grown stronger. We have not had a single customer cancel an order, and all of them are reporting rapidly growing project pipelines in every geography. U.S. demand remains extraordinarily strong, and we think there is additional upside if President Biden's plans for renewables pass Congress.
更重要的是,儘管供應鏈挑戰與價格上升,太陽能需求反而持續增強。我們沒有任何一位客戶取消訂單,且所有客戶都回報各地區的專案管線都在快速成長。美國需求仍然異常強勁,我們認為若拜登總統的再生能源計畫在國會通過,還有額外上行空間。
We continue to monitor this very closely, both the direct pay option for the ITC and the 10% ITC adder for domestic content. The former could be a massive accelerant for the solar industry as it was when the original cash grant program was implemented. The latter could be an accelerant for Array specifically because we are able to source up to 90% of our bill of materials domestically, something we do not believe our major competitors are able to do.
我們持續非常密切地關注此事,包括 ITC 的直接支付(direct pay)選項,以及針對國內成分(domestic content)的 10% ITC 加成。前者可能成為太陽能產業的巨大加速器,就如同當年原始現金補助計畫(cash grant program)實施時一樣。後者則可能特別加速 Array 的成長,因為我們能在國內採購高達 90% 的物料清單(BOM),而我們認為主要競爭對手無法做到這一點。
The strength of the market as well as our continued share gains are reflected in our order book, which was over USD 1 billion for the first time in the company's history at the end of the third quarter. That achievement is important because it comes on the heels of redesigning our quoting and procurement processes during the second quarter. Our new process, which was a change for both our customers and suppliers, has derisked our margins without impacting demand for our products.
市場的強勁,以及我們持續提升市占的成果,反映在我們的訂單簿上:截至第三季末,訂單簿規模在公司歷史上首次超過 10 億美元。這項成就很重要,因為它是在我們第二季重新設計報價與採購流程之後達成的。我們的新流程對客戶與供應商而言都是一項改變,在不影響產品需求的情況下,已降低我們的毛利率風險。
Most importantly, the orders we have been booking are at and sometimes above the gross margins that we have achieved historically. That, plus the fact that we are rapidly burning off the legacy orders that we booked at lower prices, gives me the confidence to say that we have turned the corner on margins and are on a path to get our profitability back to where it was in 2020.
最重要的是,我們目前所簽下的訂單,其毛利率達到、甚至有時高於我們歷史上所達成的毛利率水準。再加上我們正快速消化以較低價格簽下的舊有訂單,讓我有信心表示:我們的毛利率已經走出谷底,並正朝著把獲利能力恢復到 2020 年水準的路徑前進。
And finally, we told you when we partnered with Blackstone a few months ago that their capital was part of our plan to go on the offensive during this period of disruption. You can see we have been doing that organically, as evidenced by our order book, and now also through M&A with our acquisition of STI. We will talk a lot more about the deal later in our presentation, but I'll say now that I could not be more excited about the transaction. Making STI part of Array is a game changer for our international expansion strategy that is going to pay dividends for us next year. Together, we see north of $200 million EBITDA next year, and that's before any synergies.
最後,幾個月前我們與 Blackstone 合作時就曾告訴各位,他們的資金是我們在這段動盪期間採取主動攻勢計畫的一部分。各位可以看到,我們已透過有機成長在執行這項策略,訂單簿即為明證;而現在也透過併購(M&A),完成對 STI 的收購。我們稍後會在簡報中更深入討論這筆交易,但我現在先說,我對這項交易感到無比振奮。將 STI 納入 Array,對我們的國際擴張策略而言是改變遊戲規則的關鍵,並將在明年為我們帶來回報。我們預期明年合計 EBITDA 將超過 2 億美元,而且這還未包含任何綜效。
Now I'll turn to Page 6 and talk a little bit more about our growth in the third quarter and our order book. Revenues for the third quarter of 2021 were $192 million, up 38% relative to last year. That was slightly below our internal forecast as we had a few shipments to customers that were delayed as a result of logistics issues.
接下來請翻到第 6 頁,我將更進一步談談我們第三季的成長與訂單簿。2021 年第三季營收為 1.92 億美元,較去年成長 38%。由於物流問題導致我們對客戶的幾筆出貨延遲,該數字略低於我們的內部預估。
Demand during the quarter was extraordinarily strong, with the third quarter representing our third consecutive quarter with more than $300 million in new bookings. As of September 30, we had over $1 billion in executed contracts and awarded orders, up 35% versus the same time last year and a new record for the company. The year-over-year growth is even more significant when you take into account the changes in composition of the order book from last year to this year. Last year, $120 million of the $744 million were orders that customers placed to qualify for the ITC before it stepped down. In other words, we got some orders earlier last year than we would have normal -- in a normal year, which increased our backlog. This year, there are no ITC-related orders in our backlog.
本季需求異常強勁,第三季是我們連續第三個季度新增接單超過 3 億美元。截至 9 月 30 日,我們已簽署合約與已獲授予訂單合計超過 10 億美元,較去年同期成長 35%,並創公司新高。若考量訂單簿組成從去年到今年的變化,年增幅度其實更為顯著。去年 7.44 億美元中有 1.2 億美元,是客戶為了在 ITC 下調前取得資格而提前下單的訂單。換言之,去年我們比正常情況更早取得部分訂單——在正常年度不會如此——因此推升了我們的在手訂單。今年我們的在手訂單中沒有任何與 ITC 相關的訂單。
The takeaway here is the growth in our order book is even more significant than the 35%. Because we have no ITC orders this year, every order we have represents near-term projects. That says the organic demand we are seeing is tremendous. Couple that with what STI has in their order book, and we are entering the fourth quarter with $1.4 billion in orders. To put that in context, that is 60% more than what we have generated in revenues for all of 2020.
重點在於,我們訂單簿的成長其實比 35% 更具意義。因為今年沒有 ITC 訂單,我們的每一筆訂單都代表近期的專案。這顯示我們所看到的有機需求非常龐大。再加上 STI 訂單簿中的訂單,我們在進入第四季時的訂單總額達到 14 億美元。作為對照,這比我們 2020 年全年的營收高出 60%。
Moving on to Page 7. We put together a picture of what our gross margin should look like in the fourth quarter and next year based on the orders we have in hand and when we expect to ship them. Because our new quoting and procurement process closely matches the prices we agree with our customers to the prices we agree with our suppliers, we have a very good sense of what our gross margin will be on each order we ship.
接著看第 7 頁。我們根據手上已有的訂單以及預期出貨時間,整理出我們第四季與明年的毛利率應呈現的樣貌。由於我們新的報價與採購流程,能將我們與客戶議定的價格與我們與供應商議定的價格緊密對應,因此我們對每一筆出貨訂單的毛利率會是多少,有非常清楚的掌握。
The blue bars in the graph show you how our gross margin evolved throughout this year. We saw our margins decline steadily as we worked off legacy orders where we had agreed price with customers prior to the run-up in commodities. The gold bar shows you where gross margins are trending based on the order book and current delivery schedules. Our gross margins go up after the third quarter because in each subsequent quarter, the percentage of legacy orders with lower prices becomes a smaller and smaller percentage of our total shipments. And correspondingly, the orders we booked under the new system become a larger and larger percentage of our shipments.
圖表中的藍色長條顯示今年以來我們毛利率的演變。隨著我們消化既有(legacy)訂單——也就是在大宗商品價格上漲之前就已與客戶議定價格的訂單——我們看到毛利率持續下滑。金色長條則顯示依據訂單簿與目前交付排程,毛利率的趨勢走向。第三季之後毛利率回升,因為在之後每一季,低價的既有訂單占我們總出貨的比重會愈來愈小。相對地,在新制度下接單的訂單占我們出貨的比重會愈來愈大。
Punchline is that we expect to be back to our historical high teens to 20s margins by the second half of next year with incremental improvement beginning in the fourth quarter and continuing throughout next year. Now importantly, there is still some risk to that, mostly related to any delays in shipping our legacy backlog. Those orders dilute our margins. So the faster we burn them off, the better our margins will be and vice versa, and also further increases in freight costs. But I feel very good about our ability to deliver these numbers.
重點是:我們預期到明年下半年,毛利率可回到過去歷史水準的高十幾%到 20%出頭,並且從第四季開始逐步改善,且在明年持續提升。但重要的是,仍然存在一些風險,主要與既有積壓訂單(legacy backlog)出貨延遲有關。這些訂單會稀釋我們的毛利率。因此,我們越快把它們消化完,毛利率就會越好;反之亦然,另外還有運費成本進一步上升的風險。不過,我對我們達成這些數字的能力非常有信心。
With that, over to you, Nipul.
接下來交給你,Nipul。
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Thanks, Jim. Turning to Slide 9. Revenues for the second quarter increased 38% to $192.1 million compared to $139.5 million for the prior year period. As Jim mentioned, the increase was driven by continued strong demand for our products but also reflects a favorable comparison to the third quarter of last year, which had lower shipments as a result of the pull forward of orders into the first half of 2020 related to the ITC step-down. It's also important to note that we had approximately $40 million in shipments scheduled for this quarter where due to supplier delays or logistics unavailability, we were unable to ship prior to the end of the quarter.
謝謝,Jim。請看第 9 張投影片。第二季營收較去年同期的 1.395 億美元增加 38%,至 1.921 億美元。如 Jim 所提,成長來自我們產品需求持續強勁,但也反映了與去年第三季的有利比較;去年第三季因 ITC 逐步下調(step-down)而將部分訂單提前至 2020 年上半年出貨,導致該季出貨較低。另外也要注意,本季原本排定約 4,000 萬美元的出貨,因供應商延遲或物流運能不足,未能在季末前出貨。
Gross profit decreased to $9.3 million from $26.7 million in the prior year period, driven primarily by the majority of our shipments being legacy lower-priced orders coupled with higher input costs for commodities and logistics to fulfill those orders. Gross margin decreased from 19.2% to 4.8%, driven by this high concentration of contracts signed prior to our change in process. Going forward, legacy orders will constitute fewer and fewer of our shipments, which should result in higher gross margins.
毛利由去年同期的 2,670 萬美元降至 930 萬美元,主要原因是我們大部分出貨為既有的低價訂單,加上為履行這些訂單所需的大宗商品與物流投入成本上升。毛利率由 19.2% 降至 4.8%,原因在於高度集中於我們流程變更前簽訂的合約。展望未來,既有訂單占出貨的比重將愈來愈低,毛利率應可因此提高。
Operating expenses decreased to $25.4 million compared to $31.8 million during the same period in the prior year. The decrease was driven primarily by a $12.7 million reduction in contingent consideration expense. This expense represented earn-out payments we had to our founder, which have now ceased. Excluding contingent consideration expense, operating expenses increased approximately $6 million, which reflects higher costs associated with being a public company as well as increased head count to support our growth.
營業費用降至 2,540 萬美元,去年同期為 3,180 萬美元。下降主要來自或有對價費用(contingent consideration expense)減少 1,270 萬美元。該費用代表我們需支付給創辦人的分期績效對價(earn-out)款項,而目前已停止。若排除或有對價費用,營業費用約增加 600 萬美元,反映成為上市公司所帶來的較高成本,以及為支援成長而增加的人力編制。
Net loss attributable to common shareholders was $31 million compared to a net loss of $7.2 million during the same period in the prior year. And basic and diluted loss per share were negative $0.24 compared to basic and diluted loss per share of negative $0.06 during the same period in the prior year. It is important to note here that our net loss attributable to common shareholders was impacted by $5.5 million in preferred dividends this quarter with no comparable dividends last year.
歸屬普通股股東的淨損為 3,100 萬美元,去年同期淨損為 720 萬美元。基本與稀釋每股虧損為負 0.24 美元,去年同期基本與稀釋每股虧損為負 0.06 美元。需要特別指出的是,本季歸屬普通股股東的淨損受到 550 萬美元優先股股利的影響,而去年沒有可比的股利。
Adjusted EBITDA decreased to a loss of $500,000 compared to earnings of $16.6 million for the prior year period. Adjusted net income decreased to a loss of $9.8 million compared to income of $12.4 million during the same period in the prior year, and adjusted basic and diluted net loss per share was $0.07 compared to income per share of $0.10 during the same period in the prior year. Again, here, we have the impact of the $5.5 million in preferred dividends in the third quarter of this year.
調整後 EBITDA 下降至虧損 50 萬美元,去年同期為獲利 1,660 萬美元。調整後淨利下降至虧損 980 萬美元,去年同期為獲利 1,240 萬美元;調整後基本與稀釋每股淨損為 0.07 美元,去年同期每股盈餘為 0.10 美元。同樣地,這裡也反映了今年第三季 550 萬美元優先股股利的影響。
Finally, our free cash flow for the period was negative $32.8 million versus positive $21.1 million for the same period in the prior year. The use of cash during the quarter was primarily driven by investments in inventory as we increased our safety stock to protect ourselves against supplier delays and logistics issues in preparation for the ramp-up in shipments we are expecting going into next year.
最後,本期自由現金流為負 3,280 萬美元,去年同期為正 2,110 萬美元。本季現金使用主要來自存貨投資,因我們提高安全庫存,以因應供應商延遲與物流問題,並為預期明年出貨放量做準備。
Now turning to our outlook on Slide 10. During our second quarter call, we reinitiated guidance, and I wanted to provide an update on where we see ourselves within the range that we provided based on current market conditions. As Jim mentioned, the macro environment continues to be challenging. Shipping costs are up. Supply chains remain extraordinarily stressed, and labor markets are tight. Those challenges are manifesting themselves in project delays, sometimes because materials are simply not available to begin construction, sometimes because customers are changing panel vendors midstream, which requires design changes that take time to implement, and sometimes because EPC capacity is not available, and sometimes because customers are simply choosing to wait because they think prices will move lower, although that is rare.
接著看第 10 張投影片的展望。在第二季電話會議中,我們重新啟動財測指引;我想根據目前市場狀況,更新我們在所提供區間內的位置。如 Jim 所提,總體環境仍具挑戰。運輸成本上升。供應鏈仍承受極大壓力,勞動市場也很緊俏。這些挑戰正反映在專案延遲上:有時是因為材料根本無法到位以開始施工;有時是因為客戶在專案進行中更換面板供應商,導致需要設計變更且需時間落實;有時是因為 EPC 產能不足;也有時是客戶選擇觀望,因為他們認為價格會走低,雖然這種情況較少見。
We took all of that into account when we provided our guidance range. The low end anticipated the challenges we saw in the market continuing or even getting worse, and the high end assumed some level of a relief. Unfortunately, we are increasingly seeing the former scenario. So while we will meet our guidance, we currently expect to come in at the lower end of the range for revenues, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS.
我們在提供指引區間時已將上述因素納入考量。區間下緣假設我們在市場上看到的挑戰會持續,甚至可能惡化;區間上緣則假設情況能獲得某種程度的緩解。不幸的是,我們愈來愈常看到前者的情境。因此,雖然我們將達成指引,但目前預期營收、調整後 EBITDA 與調整後 EPS 會落在區間下緣。
Now I'll turn it over to Brad to discuss in more detail the acquisition.
接下來我把時間交給 Brad,更詳細說明這項收購案。
Brad Forth - Executive Chairman
Brad Forth - Executive Chairman
Thanks, Nipul. Turning to Slide 12. I'd like to provide an overview of STI Norland. STI is a leading European manufacturer of trackers. They were founded in 1996 and began supplying trackers in 2002. They have over 12 gigawatts of trackers shipped or awarded. They are headquartered in Pamplona, Spain, with manufacturing facilities in both Spain and Brazil. STI produces a dual-row tracker system that has 1 motor for every 2 rows. This low-cost architecture is well suited to irregular terrain and regions with low wind and/or snow load requirements.
謝謝,Nipul。請看第 12 張投影片。我想先概述 STI Norland。STI 是歐洲領先的追日系統(tracker)製造商。公司成立於 1996 年,並於 2002 年開始供應追日系統。其追日系統累計出貨或得標超過 12 吉瓦。總部位於西班牙潘普洛納(Pamplona),並在西班牙與巴西皆設有製造基地。STI 生產雙排追日系統,每兩排配置一具馬達。這種低成本架構非常適合地形不規則、以及風載與/或雪載要求較低的地區。
STI enjoys leading positions in both Iberia and Latin America. It's a top 5 global player. It's a top 3 player in Spain, and it's the #1 player in Brazil. It's currently owned by the founder's family and a Spanish private equity firm. And as you can see on the right, this business had last 12-month revenue of USD 413 million as of September 30, with gross margins in the 30% range, EBITDA of $45 million and EBITDA margins of 21%. It has a head count of approximately 200 people and, as of September 30, had a backlog and awarded order value of approximately $416 million.
STI 在伊比利亞半島與拉丁美洲均具領先地位。它是全球前五大業者。它在西班牙是前三大業者,並且在巴西排名第一。目前由創辦人家族與一家西班牙私募股權公司持有。如右側所示,截至 9 月 30 日,該業務過去 12 個月營收為 4.13 億美元,毛利率約在 30% 區間,EBITDA 為 4,500 萬美元,EBITDA 利潤率為 21%。員工人數約 200 人,且截至 9 月 30 日,未交付訂單(backlog)與已獲授標訂單金額合計約 4.16 億美元。
Slide 13. We believe that this transaction provides a number of key benefits. It creates the largest solar tracker company in the world with leading positions in the United States, Latin America and Europe. STI is the leading provider of trackers in Brazil, where it's significantly larger than its next closest competitor. It has a long-standing relationship with many important global developers. STI provides reliable products with a dual-row architecture that is ideal for certain international markets.
第 13 頁。我們相信這筆交易帶來多項關鍵效益。它將打造全球最大的太陽能追日系統(solar tracker)公司,並在美國、拉丁美洲與歐洲居於領先地位。STI 是巴西追日系統的領先供應商,規模顯著大於其最接近的競爭對手。它與多家重要的全球開發商維持長期合作關係。STI 提供可靠的產品,採用雙排(dual-row)架構,特別適合某些國際市場。
In addition, we have the opportunity to drive incremental sales demand by offering Array's DuraTrack products through STI sales channels. Array and STI have very little overlap in terms of both geographies and customers. And the combined company is expected to generate approximately 30% of its revenues from projects outside of the United States in 2022. We expect the transaction to be margin and EPS accretive, with the combined businesses expected to generate $200 million plus of adjusted EBITDA in 2022, and that's before any synergies. And lastly, the 2 companies will have over $750 million of combined purchasing, creating opportunities for cost savings.
此外,我們也有機會透過 STI 的銷售通路提供 Array 的 DuraTrack 產品,以帶動額外的銷售需求。Array 與 STI 在地理區域與客戶方面的重疊非常少。合併後公司預期在 2022 年約有 30% 的營收來自美國以外的專案。我們預期本交易將提升利潤率並增厚 EPS(每股盈餘);合併後兩項業務在 2022 年預計可產生超過 2 億美元的調整後 EBITDA,且此數字尚未計入任何協同效益。最後,兩家公司合計採購金額將超過 7.5 億美元,創造成本節省的機會。
Turning to Slide 14. We are creating a global leader. Array will have unparalleled coverage of the largest markets for utility-scale solar outside of China and India. On the left, you see Array, which is the U.S. leader, having shipped over 30 gigawatts, providing a system with the lowest lifetime cost and currently with a $1 billion order book, whereas STI is a Latin American leader and a top 5 player in Europe. It has 12 gigawatts of shipped and awarded orders. It provides a system with low upfront costs in certain markets, and it has an order book of $416 million.
接著看第 14 頁。我們正在打造全球領導者。Array 將在中國與印度以外、最大型的公用事業級太陽能市場中,擁有無可比擬的覆蓋範圍。左側是 Array,作為美國領導者,累計出貨超過 30 吉瓦,提供全生命週期成本最低的系統,目前訂單簿達 10 億美元;而 STI 則是拉丁美洲的領導者,並在歐洲名列全球前五。其已出貨與已獲授標訂單合計達 12 吉瓦。在某些市場提供前期成本較低的系統,且其訂單簿為 4.16 億美元。
So you put the 2 together, and you have a global leader with over 42 gigawatts shipped and awarded, which is equivalent to 23% of the installed utility-scale capacity in North America, Europe, Latin America and Australia. Array and STI will provide a full product suite to meet customer needs and will collectively enjoy an order book of $1.4 billion.
因此把兩者結合起來,就形成一個全球領導者,已出貨與已獲授標合計超過 42 吉瓦,相當於北美、歐洲、拉丁美洲與澳洲已安裝之公用事業級容量的 23%。Array 與 STI 將提供完整的產品組合以滿足客戶需求,並共同擁有 14 億美元的訂單簿。
Slide 15. As I mentioned, Array and STI Norland are highly complementary with almost no customer overlap. In terms of STI's position, it's the #1 player in Brazil, significantly larger than any other participants. It's a top 3 player in Spain, a top 3 player in other parts of Latin America. But in the U.S., where Array is the leader, it has a very limited presence. And as you can see on the right, it enjoys relationships with many important international customers.
第 15 頁。如我先前提到,Array 與 STI Norland 互補性極高,幾乎沒有客戶重疊。就 STI 的市場地位而言,它在巴西排名第一,規模顯著大於任何其他參與者。它在西班牙是前三大業者,在拉丁美洲其他地區亦為前三大業者。但在 Array 居於領先的美國市場,STI 的布局非常有限。如右側所示,它與許多重要的國際客戶維持合作關係。
As you will see on Slide 16, STI Norland has delivered industry-leading growth and margins to the international market. Its revenue has gone from EUR 104.7 million in 2019 to almost EUR 200 million last year. This corresponds to EUR 13.1 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2019 to EUR 42.5 million in 2020, and the company is expecting significant growth in 2021. As such, we have incentivized them to deliver with an earn-out structure. They will start receiving additional purchase price consideration to the extent that their adjusted EBITDA exceeds EUR 47 million in 2021 to a cap of EUR 60.8 million. The revenue range roughly corresponds to those EBITDA figures. Lastly, STI's geographic mix is roughly a 60-40 split between Brazil and other international markets.
如你們在第 16 頁將看到,STI Norland 在國際市場實現了業界領先的成長與利潤率。其營收已從 2019 年的 1.047 億歐元成長至去年的接近 2 億歐元。相應地,調整後 EBITDA 由 2019 年的 1,310 萬歐元提升至 2020 年的 4,250 萬歐元,公司並預期 2021 年將有顯著成長。因此,我們以或有對價(earn-out)架構激勵其達成目標。若其 2021 年調整後 EBITDA 超過 4,700 萬歐元,將開始取得額外的收購價款對價,上限為 6,080 萬歐元。營收區間大致對應上述 EBITDA 數字。最後,STI 的地理營收組合約為巴西 60%、其他國際市場 40%。
Slide 17. I'd now like to describe the Brazilian market, which is an attractive market for solar with more than 30 gigawatts of installations expected between 2020 and 2030. Brazil is a country with a large population of over 200 million people and almost $2 trillion of GDP. Its generation capacity is projected to grow 34% over the next decade, a rate greater than that of the U.S.
第 17 頁。接下來我想介紹巴西市場;這是太陽能極具吸引力的市場,預期 2020 至 2030 年間新增裝置量將超過 30 吉瓦。巴西人口超過 2 億,GDP 接近 2 兆美元。其發電裝置容量預計在未來十年成長 34%,增速高於美國。
Historically, Brazil has been very reliant on weather-sensitive hydroelectric generation, which has been causing extreme price volatility during periods when water reservoirs are low. Recent droughts, coupled with very attractive levelized cost of energy for solar, have led to a significant increase in solar demand. Brazil is the third best solar resource globally, and trackers are widely used in Brazil with a 90-plus percent adoption rate. And lastly, solar capacity is expected to grow 400% between 2020 and 2030.
歷史上,巴西高度依賴對天候敏感的水力發電;當水庫水位偏低時,這會造成電價劇烈波動。近期乾旱,加上太陽能極具吸引力的平準化能源成本(LCOE),帶動太陽能需求大幅增加。巴西的太陽能資源在全球排名第三,且追日系統在巴西被廣泛採用,採用率超過 90%。最後,太陽能裝置容量預期在 2020 至 2030 年間成長 400%。
Slide 18. Besides being a very exciting market over the next decade, we think Brazil represents a terrific near-term opportunity. The market has historically been driven by government energy auctions. However, it's recently transitioning to a private power purchase agreement market driven by strong demand from industrial customers seeking to reduce their electricity costs. Solar is highly competitive in Brazil with other forms of generation, with recent auction prices in the BRL 122 to BRL 137 per megawatt hour, which equates to roughly USD 22 to USD 25 per megawatt hour.
第 18 頁。除了未來十年是一個令人振奮的市場之外,我們也認為巴西在短期內代表極佳的機會。過去市場主要由政府能源拍賣所驅動。然而,近期正轉向由工業客戶強勁需求所帶動的民間電力購售協議(PPA)市場,這些客戶希望降低用電成本。太陽能在巴西相較其他發電形式具高度競爭力;近期拍賣價格約為每兆瓦時 122 至 137 巴西雷亞爾,約相當於每兆瓦時 22 至 25 美元。
On top of this, utility-scale projects benefit from a 50% discount on transmission and distribution tariffs, which make it very economical to get electricity from solar plants to the customer. But to be eligible for this discount, projects must be registered before March of 2022, after which they will have 4 years to reach their commercial operation date. The sunsetting of these discounts is driving significant near-term demand as customers seek to lock in their equipment supply to meet these deadlines. This is projected to give rise to approximately 5 gigawatts in demand next year and 4.8 gigawatts in 2023, which we believe equates to tracker demand of approximately USD 1 billion.
此外,公用事業級專案可享有輸電與配電費率 50% 的折扣,使得將太陽能電廠的電力送達客戶非常具經濟效益。但要符合此折扣資格,專案必須在 2022 年 3 月前完成登記;之後將有 4 年時間達到商轉日期。這些折扣的逐步退場正推動顯著的短期需求,因客戶希望鎖定設備供應以符合上述期限。預計這將在明年帶來約 5 吉瓦的需求、並在 2023 年帶來 4.8 吉瓦的需求;我們認為這相當於約 10 億美元的追日系統需求。
I'd now like to hand it back to Nipul to provide an overview of the transaction. Nipul?
接下來我想把時間交還給 Nipul,請他概述本次交易。Nipul?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Thanks, Brad. Turning to Slide 19. I'll provide a brief summary of the terms of the transaction. We are acquiring STI for EUR 570 million, subject to certain adjustments based on the amount of cash, debt and certain other items that STI has. The consideration is a combination of cash and stock. The final purchase price will be determined at closing, but we currently expect the cash component will be approximately EUR 351 million, which is $407 million at current FX rates, and we will issue 13.9 million shares of Array common stock to the seller.
謝謝,Brad。接著看第 19 張投影片。我將簡要總結本次交易條款。我們將以 5.70 億歐元收購 STI,並將依據 STI 所持有的現金、債務及其他若干項目金額進行特定調整。對價由現金與股票組成。最終購買價格將於交割時確定,但我們目前預期現金部分約為 3.51 億歐元,按目前匯率約為 4.07 億美元,且我們將於交割時向賣方發行 1,390 萬股 Array 普通股。
The shareholders of STI will also be eligible for an earn-out of up to EUR 55 million in cash, depending on the amount of EBITDA that STI generates in 2021. The amount of earn-out is determined by taking the difference between the actual EBITDA that STI generates and EUR 47 million and multiplying by 4 with a maximum payout capped at EUR 55 million. The earn-out payment, if any is made, will not be paid until sometime in Q2 2022 after the 2021 audit is completed.
STI 的股東亦可依據 STI 於 2021 年產生的 EBITDA 金額,獲得最高 5,500 萬歐元的現金或有對價(earn-out)。或有對價金額的計算方式為:以 STI 實際產生的 EBITDA 減去 4,700 萬歐元之差額,再乘以 4,且最高支付上限為 5,500 萬歐元。若需支付或有對價,將於 2021 年審計完成後、約在 2022 年第二季的某個時間點才會支付。
We are locking up the Array stock that sellers will be receiving in the transaction for a period of 6 months with one exception. If at any time after 3 months from the closing date our stock is up more than 20% and stays there for 10 business days, we are obligated to file a registration statement covering 20% of the shares the sellers received in the deal. The other 80% stays locked up for the remainder of the 6-month period.
我們將對賣方在本交易中取得的 Array 股票設定 6 個月的禁售期,但有一項例外。若自交割日起滿 3 個月後的任何時間,我們股價上漲超過 20% 並連續維持 10 個營業日,我們有義務提交一份涵蓋賣方於本交易中取得股份之 20% 的註冊聲明。其餘 80% 的股份將在 6 個月期間的剩餘時間內繼續鎖定。
Importantly, it's a very small amount of stock that the sellers are getting. There are 3 of them, and the largest of the 3 will be less than a 5% shareholder in Array. The closing of the transaction occurs 10 days after we receive any required regulatory approvals but not earlier than January 11, 2022. We currently expect the acquisition will close sometime in Q1 2022.
重要的是,賣方取得的股票數量非常少。賣方共有 3 位,其中最大的一位在 Array 的持股比例也將低於 5%。本交易將於我們取得任何所需監管核准後 10 天完成交割,但不會早於 2022 年 1 月 11 日。我們目前預期本次收購將於 2022 年第一季的某個時間完成交割。
Now I'll turn to Page 20 to talk about our financing plan. The summary cap table on this page outlines at a high level what the balance sheet of the combined company would look like on a pro forma basis as of 9/30/2021. As I mentioned earlier, we expect the cash consideration for the transaction to be approximately $407 million at current FX rates, and we have transaction costs that are in addition to that. We plan to draw $100 million of the remaining $150 million preferred equity commitment that we have with Blackstone, and we have obtained a $300 million bridge commitment for a new term loan that will allow us to close the transaction should we need it. But we expect to pursue other debt financing alternatives between signing and closing.
接下來我將翻到第 20 頁,談談我們的融資計畫。本頁的摘要資本結構表(cap table)在較高層次上概述了截至 2021/9/30 合併後公司在備考(pro forma)基礎下的資產負債表將呈現的樣貌。如我先前提到的,我們預期本交易的現金對價按目前匯率約為 4.07 億美元,此外還有交易成本。我們計畫從與 Blackstone 的 1.50 億美元優先股權承諾中,動用剩餘額度中的 1.00 億美元;同時我們已取得一筆 3.00 億美元的過橋承諾,用於新的定期貸款(term loan),以便在需要時能完成交割。但我們預期在簽約至交割期間,將尋求其他債務融資替代方案。
We are still in the process of evaluating alternatives for the debt component, but we expect to be in the range of $325 million and its cost to be at or below our existing term loan, which is priced at approximately 3.75%. You will note that our share count goes up modestly to reflect the 13-point million (sic) [13.9 million] shares that we will issue to the seller at closing as well as the 2.3 million shares that we will issue to Blackstone when we draw on their equity commitment. As Brad mentioned earlier, we expect the transaction to be very accretive to our 2022 EPS with this capital structure before any synergies.
我們仍在評估債務部分的替代方案,但我們預期規模約在 3.25 億美元左右,其成本將與我們現有的定期貸款相當或更低;現有定期貸款的定價約為 3.75%。你會注意到,我們的股數將小幅增加,以反映我們將於交割時向賣方發行的 1,300 萬點(原文口誤)[1,390 萬]股,以及當我們動用 Blackstone 的股權承諾時將向其發行的 230 萬股。如 Brad 先前提到的,在此資本結構下、尚未計入任何協同效益之前,我們預期本交易將對 2022 年每股盈餘(EPS)具有顯著增益(accretive)。
With that, I will turn it back over to Jim to wrap up.
接下來,我把時間交回給 Jim 來做總結。
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Thanks, Nipul. I'll wrap up by saying I'm incredibly excited about the road ahead for Array. We have successfully adapted our business model to the current environment and demonstrated that we can generate bookings in line with our historical gross margins. The domestic supply chain we have built is helping us to take market share and positions us to be an even bigger winner as U.S. content evolves into a competitive differentiator. And with our acquisition of STI Norland, we are now equally well positioned to accelerate our international growth. We continue to build a great company, and I am more confident than ever that we will emerge from the current environment even stronger than we were before.
謝謝,Nipul。我最後總結一下:我對 Array 未來的道路感到非常振奮。我們已成功調整商業模式以適應當前環境,並證明我們能以符合歷史毛利率水準的方式取得訂單(bookings)。我們建立的國內供應鏈正協助我們取得市占,並使我們在美國本土內容(U.S. content)逐步演變為競爭差異化因素之際,成為更大的贏家。而透過收購 STI Norland,我們如今也同樣具備加速國際成長的有利位置。我們持續打造一家卓越的公司,我比以往任何時候都更有信心,我們將在當前環境中走出來,變得比以前更強。
And with that, operator, please open the line for questions.
接下來,接線員,請開放提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Brian Lee with Goldman Sachs.
(接線員指示) 我們的第一個問題來自 Goldman Sachs 的 Brian Lee。
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Congrats on this STI announcement. My first question was on the STI Norland business. The margins, 30% gross, pretty impressive. Can you speak to what's been able to drive them to those margin levels, which seem far superior than yours and also your peers? How sustainable is that? What's driving it? And then what sort of synergies could you maybe see over time? And could those drive the core Array business to get to those margin levels as well?
恭喜你們宣布收購 STI。我的第一個問題是關於 STI Norland 的業務。毛利率 30% 相當亮眼。你們能否談談是什麼因素推動他們達到這樣的毛利水準?看起來不僅遠高於你們,也高於同業。這樣的水準有多可持續?主要驅動因素是什麼?另外,隨著時間推進,你們可能看到哪些協同效益?而這些協同效益是否也能推動 Array 核心業務達到同樣的毛利水準?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Yes. Brian, it's Nipul. Yes, we're really excited about the STI deal. And I think the reason that we're excited is their margin profile. And they have a very good local supply chain in the regions that they operate. And as you know, with our business, it's really important to have a built-out supply chain locally because there's logistics costs and just better pricing power when you have a local supply chain. So that's the reason we have that. And Brazil is a good market where they have very good local content. We think that that's going to be -- that's going to help us as we increase our business over time.
是的。Brian,我是 Nipul。是的,我們對 STI 這筆交易非常興奮。我認為我們之所以興奮,是因為他們的利潤率結構。他們在其營運地區擁有非常好的在地供應鏈。如你所知,對我們的業務而言,在地建立完善的供應鏈非常重要,因為這能降低物流成本,而且當你有在地供應鏈時也會有更好的定價能力。所以這就是我們看重的原因。而巴西是一個很好的市場,他們在當地內容方面做得非常好。我們認為,隨著時間推進、我們業務規模擴大,這將會——這將會對我們有所幫助。
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Okay. And then any thoughts, just kind of high level around potential synergies?
好的。那麼關於潛在協同效益,有沒有一些比較高層次的想法?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Right now, from a synergy perspective, we know the 2 businesses together will have great purchasing power, as mentioned. So we think those are the key synergies we're looking at initially.
就目前而言,從協同效益的角度來看,我們知道兩項業務結合後將具備很強的採購能力,如先前所提。因此我們認為,這些是我們一開始所關注的關鍵協同效益。
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. And then just a second question here, and I'll pass it on. You mentioned the Build Back Better budget bill. I think there's differing interpretations around the steel content requirements to qualify for the domestic content added bonus on the tax credit. Could you guys sort of articulate what your current understanding is of the requirements needed to qualify for the bonus ITC? Do you need to have U.S. steel and a tracker in order to qualify for domestic content? Or are you able to do that with panels and other hardware that don't necessarily represent the U.S. steel content?
好的。可以理解。那我再問第二個問題,之後我就交給下一位。你們提到《重建更好》(Build Back Better)預算法案。我認為市場對於要符合稅收抵免中「國內內容加碼獎勵」的鋼材含量要求,有不同的解讀。你們能否說明一下,你們目前對於符合加碼投資稅收抵免(bonus ITC)所需條件的理解?是否需要使用美國鋼材以及追日系統(tracker)才能符合國內內容要求?或者你們能否透過面板及其他硬體來達成,即便它們不一定代表美國鋼材含量?
And then assuming you do need U.S. steel and then trackers using U.S. steel and this bill moves forward as written, would you anticipate that helps you on the volume demand side? Would you potentially see better margins and pricing for your product here domestically? Just wondering kind of what the implications might be if that does go through.
那麼假設你確實需要美國鋼材,而追蹤器也使用美國鋼材,且這項法案按目前文字內容推進,你是否預期這會在需求量/出貨量端對你有所幫助?你是否可能在美國國內看到你們產品更好的毛利與定價?只是想了解一下,如果真的通過,可能會有哪些影響。
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Brian, it's Nipul again. So I think that the way that the legislation is written, it helps us because of our U.S. supply chain and that we can pull up to 90%. So from a content perspective, we think that a tracker itself will likely not do it, but we will definitely be part of the -- participate and help the developer get to that content level to participate in that -- in the adders to the credit. So from that perspective, we do feel that our -- we have an advantage there. And as far as longer term, we think, yes, it is a competitive advantage that can help us overall and drive better margins if we are the primary company that can drive with the U.S. supply chain. So we think that helps us overall.
Brian,我是 Nipul,再補充一下。我認為依照法案的寫法,這對我們有利,因為我們的美國供應鏈可讓我們把比例拉到最高 90%。因此從國產內容的角度來看,我們認為單靠追蹤器本身可能無法達標,但我們一定會成為其中一部分——參與並協助開發商達到該內容比例,以便參與——取得稅額抵免的加成(adders)。所以從這個角度,我們確實覺得我們——在這方面有優勢。至於更長期來看,我們認為是的,這是一項競爭優勢;如果我們是能以美國供應鏈推動的主要公司,整體上可幫助我們並帶動更好的毛利。所以我們認為這整體上對我們有幫助。
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Brian K. Lee - VP & Senior Clean Energy Analyst
Okay. Fair enough. I guess maybe just a follow-on to that, Nipul. It's -- I know with the tracker being roughly 10% of the BOM, you couldn't fulfill the entire domestic content requirement threshold with just the U.S. trackers. But is it your understanding that you need to have the tracker and the panel to aggregate above the domestic content threshold? Or could you do it with other components? I guess that's just sort of clarification that we're hoping to get there.
好的。有道理。我想也許再追問一下,Nipul。我知道追蹤器大約占物料清單(BOM)的 10%,你不可能只靠美國製追蹤器就滿足整個國產內容門檻。但你的理解是,必須把追蹤器和面板加總起來,才能超過國產內容門檻嗎?還是可以用其他零組件來達成?我想這只是我們希望釐清的一點。
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Brian, it's Jim. It's really -- the onus is upon the developer/owner of the asset and how they get there. So certainly, we provide advantage of up to the 10% as you're talking today. Where they get the balance is really up to them. So to the extent they source panels, U.S. or elsewhere, inverters, whatever else makes up the balance of system, it's really going to be up to them. That's outside of our control as we interpret it today.
Brian,我是 Jim。這真的——責任在於資產的開發商/所有人,以及他們如何達到門檻。所以當然,我們如你今天所說,最多可提供約 10% 的優勢。至於其餘的差額要怎麼補足,基本上取決於他們。因此不論他們採購面板(美國製或其他地區)、逆變器,或任何構成系統其餘部分(balance of system)的項目,最終都由他們決定。就我們目前的解讀而言,那不在我們的控制範圍內。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Mark Strouse, JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通(JPMorgan)的 Mark Strouse。
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Thanks for all the detail on STI. This is very helpful. One thing I didn't see though, can you just give a bit more color on kind of what their manufacturing footprint looks like? Is there any change to your CapEx-light model going forward?
感謝你們提供關於 STI 的所有細節。這非常有幫助。不過有一點我沒看到,你們能否再多補充一些他們製造據點的概況?未來你們的輕資本支出(CapEx-light)模式會有任何改變嗎?
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Mark, with respect to the CapEx, no change going forward. They have manufacturing presence in Brazil as well as in Spain. That's their 2 primary locations with 0 overlap with us. So we think that's another excellent opportunity for us to move forward with and going to market.
Mark,關於資本支出(CapEx),未來不會有任何改變。他們在巴西以及西班牙都有製造據點。這是他們兩個主要地點,且與我們完全沒有重疊。因此我們認為,這也是我們向前推進並推向市場的另一個絕佳機會。
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Mark Wesley Strouse - Alternative Energy and Applied & Emerging Technologies Analyst
Okay. And then can you just talk about how this deal came about? Was it shopped? Or just any color there would be helpful.
好的。那你們能談談這筆交易是怎麼促成的嗎?是被拿去市場上兜售(shopped)過嗎?或任何相關背景都會很有幫助。
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Yes. Great question. I mean this is something that we, management, Brad, and the balance of the Board work all the time. I'll start off with some of the key tenets that we look for within M&A, and that's growth, value creation, how to build that portfolio, extending our global reach, advancing technology and then, most importantly, a cultural fit. And as we went through our pipeline, which we've told you in the past was fairly robust, when it came to STI Norland, checked the box. And we saw that as just an excellent fit for us.
是的。很好的問題。我的意思是,這是我們管理團隊、Brad,以及董事會其他成員一直在做的工作。我先從我們在併購(M&A)中尋找的一些關鍵原則談起:成長、價值創造、如何建立該投資組合、擴大全球觸角、推進技術,然後最重要的是文化契合度。當我們檢視我們的案源管道(pipeline)——我們過去也告訴過各位相當充足——談到 STI Norland 時,幾乎都符合我們的條件。我們認為這對我們而言是非常契合的標的。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Colin Rusch with Oppenheimer.
(接線員指示)下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Colin Rusch。
Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst
Colin William Rusch - MD & Senior Analyst
You mentioned a little bit of the product synergies, but it seems like you're addressing slightly different development sites with the 2 products with the combined entity. Can you talk a little bit about the cross-selling opportunities that you're seeing already with the 2 companies combined?
你們提到了一些產品協同效益,但看起來合併後的兩項產品似乎是在服務略有不同的開發場址。你們能談談兩家公司合併後,你們已經看到哪些交叉銷售機會嗎?
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Yes, Colin. So if you were to look, what they do extremely well is in a region where there's low wind, they have a design architecture that we like in their tandem configuration. So if you look at how they -- some of their technology surrounding their control algorithms and what we do, it's really nice bookends. If you were to look at tandem versus our 32-row connectivity and how they design for low wind and how we designed to high wind, so we see the 2 ends coming to the middle and really capturing significant share going forward. And that's what we talk about, some of the technology synergies there.
是的,Colin。如果你去看,他們在低風速地區做得非常好,他們的串聯(tandem)配置有一套我們很喜歡的設計架構。所以如果你看他們——一些圍繞控制演算法的技術,以及我們所做的事情,兩者其實是很好的互補。如果你比較串聯設計與我們的 32 排連接(32-row connectivity),以及他們如何針對低風速設計、我們如何針對高風速設計,我們看到兩端在中間匯合,未來能真正拿下顯著的市占。這就是我們所說的一些技術協同效益。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Philip Shen with ROTH.
下一個問題來自 ROTH 的 Philip Shen。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Great job on the strong bookings. Clearly, you're winning share here. I think some of the key drivers are your better-priced deal and localized manufacturing allowing for that more reliable delivery times. Can you talk through how long you think your advantage on that U.S. steel and the localized manufacturing footprint lasts? How is your competition responding? And how long do you think that lead is?
強勁的訂單表現做得很好。很明顯你們正在取得市占。我認為一些關鍵驅動因素是你們更具競爭力的報價,以及在地化製造帶來更可靠的交付時間。你們能談談你們在美國鋼材與在地化製造據點上的優勢,你們認為能維持多久嗎?競爭對手如何回應?你們覺得這個領先幅度能維持多久?
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
James M. Fusaro - CEO & Director
Phil, it's Jim. Well, certainly, we intend to continue with our lead with domestic supply. We run 90% or up to 90% of our bill of materials through the U.S. That's substantial volume. We've got long-standing relationships. So to the extent it takes our competitors to build those relationships to build out volume, to get the necessary tooling and to design in, I'll leave it to them to answer. But it's our intent to maintain that advantage and continue to build out and strengthen our U.S. supply chain by bringing in additional volume through this acquisition. So more to come.
Phil,我是 Jim。我們當然打算持續維持我們在國內供應上的領先。我們的物料清單中有 90% 或最高可達 90% 透過美國供應鏈完成。這是相當可觀的量。我們也有長期的合作關係。至於競爭對手需要多久才能建立這些關係、擴充產能、取得必要的工裝(tooling)並完成設計導入(design in),我就留給他們自己回答。但我們的目標是維持這項優勢,並透過這次收購導入更多量能,持續擴大並強化我們的美國供應鏈。後續還會有更多進展。
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Philip Shen - MD & Senior Research Analyst
Okay. Great. And then as it relates to the cadence of revenues in '22, given some of the project pushouts due to limited module availability, was wondering if you might be able to speak to that cadence. You've had that slide in the past around -- during the IPO and so forth. But I was wondering if there might be an update on that cadence. And then also, as it relates to the margin slide, how much conservatism do you think you've baked into those estimates for how margins trend by period?
好的。很好。另外,關於 2022 年營收的節奏(cadence),考量到因模組供應有限而導致部分專案延後,想請你們談談這個節奏。你們過去在 IPO 等時候曾有一張投影片談到——但我想知道這個節奏是否有更新。另外,關於毛利率那張投影片,你們認為在那些對各期間毛利率走勢的估計中,納入了多少保守性?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Phil, it's Nipul. So as far as the cadence on revenue, it's -- because there's not an ITC step-down, we think of that as more linear in 2022. Of course, as we've talked about in the past, the Q2 and Q3 tend to be a little bit higher quarters because of just seasonality in the sense of build seasons in North America.
Phil,我是 Nipul。就營收的節奏而言,因為沒有 ITC 的逐步下調,我們認為 2022 年會更偏線性。當然,如同我們過去談過的,第二季和第三季通常會略高一些,主要是季節性因素,因為北美有施工旺季。
As far as that -- your question on the gross margin slide that we showed, we think with -- there's still some things out there as far as headwinds that we're facing. So we think that the ramp that we have shown is probably a good view of the short term. But of course, we're going to look to overdrive what we've shown here, but this is what we see right now.
至於你對我們所展示的毛利率投影片的問題,我們認為——我們仍面臨一些逆風。因此,我們認為我們所展示的爬坡走勢,可能是對短期情況的一個不錯的觀點。但當然,我們會努力把表現做得比這裡展示的更好,不過這就是我們目前所看到的狀況。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Maheep Mandloi with Credit Suisse.
(接線員指示) 下一個問題來自 Credit Suisse 的 Maheep Mandloi。
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Maheep Mandloi - Associate
Just looking at the $200 million guidance and backing in that north of $68 million EBITDA composition from STI, it seems like the core business is in the $120 million, $140 million range. Is that the right way to think about it? Just wanted to square that with the prior assumptions for EBITDA generation in Array's core business.
看著 2 億美元的指引,並倒推出其中來自 STI 的超過 6,800 萬美元 EBITDA 組成,似乎核心業務大約在 1.2 億到 1.4 億美元區間。這樣理解對嗎?只是想把這點與先前對 Array 核心業務 EBITDA 產生能力的假設對照確認。
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Yes. Generally speaking, I mean, we -- you probably -- we can give you a better view of the total 2022 outlook in the Q4 call, as we've mentioned. But as we look at it today, that's kind of our view of the combined business, the $200 million of EBITDA.
是的。一般來說,我們——你可能——如同我們提到的,我們可以在第四季電話會議時,提供你對 2022 年整體展望更清楚的視角。但以我們今天的看法,這就是我們對合併後業務的看法,也就是 2 億美元的 EBITDA。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Osha with Guggenheim Partners.
下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Joseph Osha。
Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst
Joseph Amil Osha - MD & Senior Energy and Industrial Technology Analyst
As you look out in 2022 and that margin guidance that you provided at the gross margin level, to what extent does that depend on passing material price increases through to your end customer? And I guess I'm trying to understand the extent to which those increases are locked in versus not locked in.
展望 2022 年以及你們在毛利率層級提供的利潤率指引,這在多大程度上取決於把材料價格上漲轉嫁給終端客戶?我想了解的是,這些漲價在多大程度上已經鎖定、以及在多大程度上尚未鎖定。
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Joe, it's Nipul. So the material cost increases aren't really an impact to what we've said on here because of what we stated in Q2 with the change in our procurement and contracting process. As you recall, we lock in the commodity cost aspect of the bill of material once we've been awarded the order, which was new to our process. And that's -- that locks in about north of 80% of the cost of what we have for that order. So that's not really what impacts it. There's obviously other cost, logistics costs that could vary. And that's what could potentially change it, but we don't think by a material amount.
Joe,我是 Nipul。材料成本上升其實不太會影響我們在這裡所說的內容,因為我們在第二季提到我們採購與簽約流程的變更。如你所記得,一旦我們拿到訂單,我們就會把物料清單中商品成本的部分鎖定,這在我們流程中是新的做法。而這——大約能鎖定該訂單成本中超過 80% 的部分。所以影響並不在這裡。當然還有其他成本,例如物流成本可能會波動。那才可能造成變動,但我們認為幅度不會很大。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Tristan Richardson with Truist Securities.
下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Tristan Richardson。
Tristan James Richardson - VP
Tristan James Richardson - VP
Appreciate all the comments and clarity on how you see margins trending, especially as legacy procurement projects are delivered. Just thinking about some of the macro dynamics you guys outlined, does the trajectory margins sort of assume that some of those macro conditions abate in 2022? Or is this kind of a trajectory assuming things stay the way they are today?
感謝你們對於如何看待利潤率走勢的所有評論與釐清,尤其是在交付既有採購專案之際。想就你們提到的一些總體動態來思考一下,這個利潤率的軌跡是否假設 2022 年那些總體條件會有所緩解?還是這個軌跡是假設情況維持在今天這樣?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Yes. Tristan, it's Nipul. So the way we've kind of modeled it and shown it here is really the status quo. So we can only really look to see where we are at today. And with our new contracting process, we've really derisked ourselves for a lot of that volatility that we faced earlier in the year.
是的。Tristan,我是 Nipul。我們建模並在這裡呈現的方式,基本上就是維持現狀(status quo)。所以我們只能根據今天所處的位置來看。而透過我們新的簽約流程,我們已經在很大程度上降低了今年稍早所面臨的那種波動風險。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Kashy Harrison with Piper Sandler.
下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Kashy Harrison。
Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst
Kasope Oladipo Harrison - Research Analyst
I was wondering if you guys could dig a little bit deeper into the combined $1.4 billion order book. How much of that order book relates to 2022? And then part and parcel with that, is Q4 typically a seasonally slow or strong quarter from a bookings perspective?
我想請你們更深入談談合併後 14 億美元的訂單庫存(order book)。其中有多少與 2022 年相關?另外,從接單(bookings)的角度來看,第四季通常是季節性偏弱還是偏強的季度?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Kashy, it's Nipul. Generally speaking, of the order books that we've shown, about 70% to 75% of that is really related to 2022. So that's -- we feel really good about the momentum we have going into '22. And as far as bookings, Q4 is typically a lower booking quarter. Obviously, this year, with the strong demand that we're seeing, we may -- that may be higher. But typically, if you look historically, it's been a slower booking quarter.
Kashy,我是 Nipul。一般來說,在我們展示的訂單庫存中,大約 70% 到 75% 是與 2022 年相關。所以——我們對進入 2022 年的動能感到非常樂觀。至於接單,第四季通常是接單較低的季度。當然,今年因為我們看到需求強勁,可能——可能會更高。但通常若看歷史,第四季一直是較慢的接單季度。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Moses Sutton with Barclays.
下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Moses Sutton。
Moses Nathaniel Sutton - Research Analyst
Moses Nathaniel Sutton - Research Analyst
On the $350 million in new orders, first, I just want to confirm that's, of course, pre-STI, so that's Array's base business. And then the $350 million, how much of that is for 2022? And then just any thoughts on the cadence there in terms of the pacing? July had about -- had $135 million, which would be maybe $500 million on a quarterly run rate. So have you seen any slowdown in that pacing since July? So really, any thoughts there on the 3 -- on the awarded orders.
關於 3.5 億美元的新訂單,首先我想確認,這當然是不含 STI、也就是 Array 的基礎業務。另外,這 3.5 億美元中,有多少是 2022 年的?再來想請教節奏方面的看法,也就是步調的變化。7 月大約有——有 1.35 億美元,換算成季度年化跑速可能是每季 5 億美元。所以自 7 月以來,你們有看到這個步調放緩嗎?也就是,對於這些——已獲授予的訂單,有什麼看法?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Yes. Sure. So it's Nipul again. So the $350 million of it, that's almost all of it is in 2022. And we continue to book -- our quoting activity is still very high, and we continue to have big orders booked throughout the quarter. So we still see that momentum carrying forward.
是的。當然。我又是 Nipul。這 3.5 億美元幾乎全部都在 2022 年。而我們持續接單——我們的報價活動仍然非常活躍,而且整個季度我們持續拿到大型訂單。所以我們仍看到這股動能會延續下去。
Moses Nathaniel Sutton - Research Analyst
Moses Nathaniel Sutton - Research Analyst
Got it. And just one on adjusted EBITDA, the $200 million. Are you assuming any freight adjustment on that $200 million similar to the 3Q adjustment?
了解。另外一個關於調整後 EBITDA 的問題,2 億美元。你們是否在這 2 億美元中假設了任何運費調整,類似第三季的調整?
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
Nipul A. Patel - CFO
No, that would be our adjusted EBITDA that we're showing.
沒有,那就是我們所展示的調整後 EBITDA。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, there are no further questions. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
各位女士、先生,目前沒有其他問題。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線。感謝您的參與。