Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Alliance Resource Partners LP fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

問候。歡迎參加 Alliance Resource Partners LP 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Cary Marshall, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

現在我很高興介紹資深副總裁兼財務長 Cary Marshall。

Thank you. You may begin.

謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you operator and welcome everyone.

謝謝接線員，歡迎大家。

Earlier this morning, Alliance Resource Partners released its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial and operating results. We will now discuss those results as well as our perspective on current market conditions and outlook for 2025. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call to answer your questions before beginning. A reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements, subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions contained in our filings from time to time with the securities and exchange commission and are also reflected in this morning's press release. While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected in providing these remarks.

今天早些時候，Alliance Resource Partners 發布了其 2024 年第四季和全年財務和營運業績。我們現在將討論這些結果以及我們對當前市場狀況和 2025 年前景的看法。在我們準備好發言之後，我們將在會議開始之前回答大家的問題。提醒您，我們今天的一些言論可能包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響，也反映在今天上午的新聞稿中。雖然這些前瞻性陳述是基於我們目前掌握的信息，但如果這些風險或不確定因素中的一個或多個成為現實，或者我們的基本假設被證明是錯誤的，實際結果可能與我們在提供這些言論時預測或預期的結果存在重大差異。

Alliance Partnership has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by law to do so.

無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，Alliance Partnership 沒有義務公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明，除非法律要求這樣做。

Finally, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures, definitions and reconciliations of the differences between these nongaap financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP. Financial measures are contained at the end of Arlp's press release which has been posted on our website and furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K with the required preliminaries.

最後，我們還將討論某些非 GAAP 財務指標、定義以及這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 之間的差異的調整。財務指標包含在 Arlp 新聞稿末尾，該新聞稿已發佈在我們的網站上，並以 8-K 表格形式提交給美國證券交易委員會，並附上所需的準備資料。

Out of the way, I will begin with a review of our 2024 results for the full year and the fourth quarter, give an overview of our 2025 guidance. Then turn the call over to Joe Craft, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer for his comments.

首先，我將回顧我們 2024 年全年和第四季的業績，並概述我們 2025 年的預期。然後將電話轉給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長喬·克拉夫特（Joe Craft），聽取他的評論。

During the full year, 2024 total revenues were $2.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was $714.2 million. Net income was $360.9 million. And earnings per unit were $2.77. Wholes sales volumes came in at 33.3 million tons, which was 1.1 million tons lower than full year. 2023 the lower volumes in 2024 were primarily caused by elevated customer inventories, mild weather and low natural gas prices. Operationally, during 2024, we had to contend with reduced volumes across the Appalachia region. Primarily caused by difficult mining conditions at Tunnel Ridge and Mettiki. Shipping delays at MC, mining and lower production in the Illinois Basin due to unattractive export pricing for high sulfur coal.

2024 年全年總收入為 24 億美元。調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.142 億美元。淨收入為3.609億美元。每單位收益為 2.77 美元。批發銷量3,330萬噸，比全年減少110萬噸。 2023 2024 年銷售下降主要是由於客戶庫存增加、天氣溫和以及天然氣價格低廉造成的。從營運角度來看，2024 年，我們必須應對阿巴拉契亞地區貨運量的減少。主要是由於 Tunnel Ridge 和 Mettiki 的採礦條件惡劣所致。由於高硫煤的出口價格缺乏吸引力，導致 MC 的運輸延誤、採礦以及伊利諾伊盆地的產量下降。

While full year results fell short of last year's record revenues and net income, we stayed focused throughout the year on what we could control, executed strategic capital improvements at a number of our mines and delivered outstanding safety results.

雖然全年業績未達到去年創紀錄的收入和淨收入，但我們全年始終專注於我們能夠控制的事情，在許多礦山實施了戰略資本改進，並取得了出色的安全成績。

Turning now to our fourth quarter results. Total revenues were $590.1 million for the fourth quarter of 2024 which we refer to as the 2024 quarter compared to $625.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 which we refer to as the 2023 quarter.

現在來談談我們第四季的業績。2024 年第四季（我們稱之為 2024 年季度）的總收入為 5.901 億美元，而 2023 年第四季（我們稱之為 2023 年季度）的總收入為 6.254 億美元。

The year over year decline was driven primarily by lower coal and oil and gas prices reduced coal sales volumes in Appalachian and lower transportation revenues which more than offset higher oil and gas royalty volumes and higher other revenues due to the continued strength of our protracted order book our average whole sales price per ton for the 2024 full year of $63.38 came close to the record level achieved in the 2023 full year of $64.17.

同比下降的主要原因是煤炭和石油及天然氣價格下跌，阿巴拉契亞煤炭銷售量減少，以及運輸收入下降，但這抵消了石油和天然氣特許權使用費增加以及其他收入增加的影響，這歸因於我們長期訂單的持續強勁，我們 2024 年全年每噸平均整煤銷售價格為 63.38 美元，接近 2023 年全年 64.17 美元的創紀錄水平。

Focusing on the 2024 quarter, total, coal sales price per ton was $59.97, a decrease of 1% versus the 2023 quarter and 5.7% on a sequential basis primarily due to higher spot shipments in both the domestic and international markets during the 2024 quarter. As it relates to volumes total coal production in the 2024 quarter of 6.9 million tons was 12.4% lower compared to the 2023 quarter while coal sales volumes decreased 2.3% to 8.4 million tons compared to the 2023 quarter total coal inventory at year end was 609,000 tons.

著眼於 2024 年季度，每噸煤炭總銷售價格為 59.97 美元，較 2023 年季度下降 1%，環比下降 5.7%，這主要是由於 2024 年季度國內和國際市場現貨出貨量增加。就產量而言，2024 年季度煤炭總產量為 690 萬噸，比 2023 年季度下降 12.4%，而煤炭銷量與 2023 年季度相比下降 2.3% 至 840 萬噸，年底煤炭總庫存為 609,000 噸。

Achieving our year end goal in the Illinois Basin, coal sales volumes increased by 2.8% and 10.5% compared to the 2023 and sequential quarters as a result of increased volumes from our riverview, Hamilton and Gibson South mines. Wholesal volumes in Appalachia were down 17.1% and 24.6% compared to the 2023 and sequential quarters due to continued challenging mining conditions, particularly at Tunnel Ridge and Matiki, which led to lower recoveries.

我們實現了伊利諾伊盆地的年底目標，由於我們的河景、漢密爾頓和吉布森南礦的產量增加，煤炭銷量與 2023 年和連續幾個季度相比分別增長了 2.8% 和 10.5%。由於採礦條件持續嚴峻（尤其是在隧道嶺和馬蒂基），導致回收率下降，阿巴拉契亞地區的批發量與 2023 年和連續幾個季度相比分別下降了 17.1% 和 24.6%。

Turning to cost segment. Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold for our coal operations was $48.09, an increase of 12.1% and 4.3% versus the 2023 in sequential quarters. The impact of the lower volumes I just discussed in Appalachian and an $11 million non cash deferred purchase price adjustment related to the 2015 acquisition of the Hamilton mine in the Illinois Basin were the primary drivers of the increase.

轉向成本部分。我們煤炭業務每噸銷售的調整後 EBITDA 費用為 48.09 美元，比 2023 年連續幾季成長 12.1% 和 4.3%。我剛剛討論過的阿巴拉契亞產量下降的影響，以及 2015 年收購伊利諾伊盆地漢密爾頓礦的 1,100 萬美元非現金遞延購買價格調整，是推動產量成長的主要因素。

Specifically with regards to Appalachia Tunnel Ridge had reduced shipments as unfavorable mining conditions repeatedly impacted longhaul advance causing production to be 466,000 tons, below our expectations for the 2024 quarter missed shipments will be carried over into 2025. Additionally, due to market uncertainty at MC mining, we decided to lower annual production by approximately 230,000 tons by dropping a production unit. We now plan to run two production units at MC mining for all of 2025 in an effort to reduce operating costs in our royalty segments.

具體來說，阿巴拉契亞隧道山脊的出貨量減少了，因為不利的採礦條件一再影響長途運輸，導致產量為 466,000 噸，低於我們對 2024 年季度的預期，錯過的出貨量將結轉至 2025 年。此外，由於 MC 礦業的市場不確定性，我們決定透過減少一個生產單位來降低年產量約 23 萬噸。我們目前計劃在 2025 年全年在 MC 礦業中運行兩個生產單位，以降低特許權使用費部門的營運成本。

Total revenues were $48.5 million in the 2024 quarter, down 8.6% compared to the 2023 quarter. The year over year decrease in revenues reflects lower realized oil and gas commodity pricing that more than offset increased oil and gas volumes and coal 10 sold for the full year. 2024 oil and gas royalties achieved another record year of volumes on a BOE basis in the 2024 quarter, oil and gas royalty volumes increased 1.7% on a BOE basis while coal royalty 10 sold increased 9.4% compared to the 2023 quarter.

2024 年季度總營收為 4,850 萬美元，較 2023 年季度下降 8.6%。收入年減反映出石油和天然氣商品實際價格下降，但下降超過了全年石油和天然氣銷售及煤炭銷量的成長。 2024 年石油和天然氣特許權使用費以桶油當量計算再創歷史新高，2024 年季度，石油和天然氣特許權使用費以桶油當量計算增長了 1.7%，而煤炭特許權使用費 10 的銷售額與 2023 年季度相比增長了 9.4%。

The improved volumes from oil and gas resulted from increased drilling and completion activities on our properties and acquisitions of additional oil and gas mineral interest. Sequentially, oil and gas royalty volumes and average sales pricing per BOE declined.

石油和天然氣產量的提高源於我們資產的鑽井和完井活動的增加以及對額外石油和天然氣礦產權益的收購。石油和天然氣特許權使用費數量和每桶油當量平均銷售價格均下降。

Coal royalty revenue per ton for the 2024 quarter was down 3% compared to the 2023 quarter. While lower oil and gas prices reduced, the average realized sales price per BOE by 17.2% versus the 2023 quarter.

2024 年季度每噸煤炭特許權使用費收入與 2023 年季度相比下降了 3%。雖然石油和天然氣價格有所下降，但每桶油當量的平均實現銷售價格與 2023 年季度相比下降了 17.2%。

Sequentially, coal royalty revenue per ton was relatively consistent. And oil and gas royalties average prices were down 7.3% per BOE. Our net income in the 2024 quarter was $16.3 million as compared to $115.4 million in the 2023 quarter. The decrease reflects the previously discussed lower coal sales volumes and realized prices lower realized prices in oil and gas royalties, $13.1 million of noncash accruals for certain long term liabilities and a $31.1 million noncash impairment charge due to market uncertainties that led to our decision to reduce production at MC mining.

同時，每噸煤炭特許權使用費收入相對穩定。石油和天然氣特許權使用費平均價格每桶油當量下降7.3%。我們 2024 年季度的淨收入為 1,630 萬美元，而 2023 年季度的淨收入為 1.154 億美元。這一下降反映了先前討論過的煤炭銷售量下降和實際價格下降、石油和天然氣特許權使用費實際價格下降、某些長期負債的 1,310 萬美元非現金應計費用以及由於市場不確定性導致的 3,110 萬美元非現金減值費用，這些導致我們決定減少 MC 礦業的產量。

These decreases were partially offset by a $14 million increase in the fair value of our digital assets. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $124 million.

這些減少部分被我們數位資產公允價值的 1,400 萬美元增加所抵銷。本季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.24 億美元。

Now turning to our balance sheet and uses of cash. Our total and net leverage ratios finished the year at 0.69 times and 0.5 times respectively, total debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA. As a reminder, we issued $400 million of senior notes in June of 2024 allowing us to redeem our outstanding 7.5% senior notes that were due in May 2025 total liquidity was $593.9 million at year end, which included $137 million of cash on the balance sheet.

現在來談談我們的資產負債表和現金用途。我們今年的總槓桿率和淨槓桿率分別為總債務與過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 的比率為 0.69 倍和 0.5 倍。提醒一下，我們在 2024 年 6 月發行了 4 億美元的優先票據，使我們能夠贖回 2025 年 5 月到期的未償還的 7.5% 優先票據，年底的總流動資金為 5.939 億美元，其中包括資產負債表上的 1.37 億美元現金。

Additionally, we held approximately 482 bitcoins on the balance sheet valued at $45 million at the end of the 2024 quarter for the full year. 2024 Alliance generated free cash flow of $383.5 million after investing $410.9 million in our coal operations. Additionally, we successfully acquired $24.7 million in oil and gas mineral interests all in the Permian basin specific to the 2024 quarter.

此外，截至 2024 年季度末，我們在資產負債表上持有約 482 個比特幣，價值 4,500 萬美元。2024 年，Alliance 在對煤炭業務投資 4.109 億美元後產生了 3.835 億美元的自由現金流。此外，我們成功收購了位於二疊紀盆地、價值 2,470 萬美元的石油和天然氣礦產權益，具體金額預計在 2024 年季度。

We completed two acquisitions of mineral interest totaling $9.6 million for approximately 490 net royalty acres. Finally, we declared a quarterly distribution of $0.70 per unit for the 2024 quarter, equating to an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit.

我們完成了兩次礦產權益收購，總額達 960 萬美元，涉及面積約 490 英畝。最後，我們宣布 2024 年季度的季度分配為每單位 0.70 美元，相當於年化利率為每單位 2.80 美元。

This distribution level has unchanged sequentially. And compared to the 2023 quarter. As a reminder, each quarter, the Board considers multiple factors when determining the appropriate distribution levels including but not limited to expected cash operating cash flows generated by our business capital needed to maintain our operations. Distribution coverage levels implied yield on our units, current and possible investment opportunities and debt service costs.

這一分佈水準一直沒有變化。並與 2023 年季度進行比較。提醒一下，每個季度，董事會在確定適當的分配水準時都會考慮多種因素，包括但不限於維持營運所需的業務資本產生的預期現金經營現金流。分銷覆蓋水準暗示我們的單位收益率、當前和可能的投資機會以及債務償還成本。

Turning to our initial guidance. Detailed in this morning's release as we begin 2025 for ARLP, we see gradually improving market fundamentals, the contracted order book that is filling up and as usual, the opportunity to flex additional tons to domestic or export customers should market conditions warrant the move.

談到我們的初步指導。在今天早上發布的 ARLP 2025 年開始之際，我們詳細介紹了市場基本面的改善，合約訂單正在填滿，並且像往常一樣，如果市場條件允許，有機會向國內或出口客戶增加產量。

We are also encouraged by many of the early moves of the Trump administration. In particular, it's focused on the strategic need for grid reliability and affordability and their understanding of the critical need for coal plants to help meet growing electricity demand for many years into the future.

川普政府早期的許多舉措也令我們感到鼓舞。特別是，它專注於電網可靠性和可負擔性的戰略需求，以及他們對燃煤電廠滿足未來許多年不斷增長的電力需求的迫切需求的理解。

We anticipate ARLP's overall coal sales volumes in 2025 to be in the range of 32.25 million to 34.25 million tons with over 78% of these volumes committed and priced at the midpoint of our guidance range.

我們預計，2025 年 ARLP 的煤炭總銷量將在 3,225 萬噸至 3,425 萬噸之間，其中 78% 以上已承諾銷售，且價格處於我們指導範圍的中點。

Wholes sales volumes in 2025 are roughly flat with 2024 at the midpoint with higher volumes anticipated from Tunnel Ridge once they move to the new Longhaul district in May of 2025. Currently, our committed tonnage for 2025 is 26 million tons including 23.5 million domestically and 2.5 million to the export market.

2025 年的批發銷售量與 2024 年的中間值大致持平，預計 2025 年 5 月 Tunnel Ridge 搬遷至新的 Longhaul 區後，銷售量會更高。目前，我們承諾的2025年產量為2,600萬噸，其中國內產量2,350萬噸，出口產量250萬噸。

The frigid winter weather at the start of this year drove natural gas prices higher and increased coal consumption in the eastern us helping reduce customer inventories. We are seeing domestic customer solicitations for both near term and long term supply contracts supporting our belief that domestic sales will be higher in 2025 compared to last year.

今年年初的嚴寒天氣導致天然氣價格上漲，並增加了美國東部的煤炭消費量，有助於減少客戶庫存。我們看到國內客戶正在招標短期和長期供應合同，這支持了我們的信念，即 2025 年的國內銷售額將比去年更高。

We are guiding sales pricing by region to a range of $50 to $53 per ton in the Illinois Basin, which compares to $56.44 per ton sold in 2024 and $76 to $82 per ton in Appalachia, which compares to $83.53 per ton sold in 2024. Our expected realized full year 2025 price is based on a combination of our contracted order book and our expectations for additional contracting, both domestic and export for the open position.

我們指導各地區的銷售價格在伊利諾盆地為每噸 50 至 53 美元，而 2024 年的銷售價格為每噸 56.44 美元；阿巴拉契亞地區為每噸 76 至 82 美元，而 2024 年的銷售價格為每噸 83.53 美元。我們預計 2025 年全年實現的價格是基於我們的合約訂單和我們對未平倉頭寸的國內和出口額外合約的預期。

On the cost side, we expect full year 2025 segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton to be in a range of $35 to $38 per ton in the Illinois Basin as compared to $37.81 in 2024 and $53 to $60 in Appalachia as compared to $64.67 in 2024. During the full year, 2025 we have two scheduled long haul moves in February at Tunnel Ridge and Matiki, another Longhaul move at Tunnel Ridge in the second quarter of 2025 and one at Hamilton in the third quarter of 2025 on a net net basis. We are anticipating a material improvement in full year cost that is expected to roughly offset the lower realized pricing forecast in our co business for 2025 on a quarterly basis for 2025.

在成本方面，我們預計 2025 年全年分部調整後 EBITDA 每噸費用在伊利諾伊盆地 35 至 38 美元之間，而 2024 年為 37.81 美元；在阿巴拉契亞地區 53 至 60 美元之間，而 2024 年為 64.67 美元。2025 年全年，我們計劃於 2 月份在 Tunnel Ridge 和 Matiki 進行兩次長途運輸，2025 年第二季度在 Tunnel Ridge 進行另一次長途運輸，2025 年第三季度在 Hamilton 進行一次長途運輸，以淨淨額計算。我們預計全年成本將大幅改善，預計將大致抵銷 2025 年季度我們聯合業務的較低實際定價預測。

It is reasonable to assume cost per ton to be highest in the first quarter as coal sales volumes are anticipated to be approximately 6% to 10% lower than the 2024 quarter as a result of the two Longwall moves. And as we finish our four major infrastructure projects that we have discussed over the past two years.

由於兩次長壁作業導致煤炭銷量預計比 2024 年季度低約 6% 至 10%，因此可以合理地假設第一季每噸成本最高。我們已完成過去兩年討論的四大基礎建設項目。

Second quarter 2025 call sales volumes are anticipated to be more in line with the 2024 quarter. The added volumes as well as the cadence of longwall moves means we expect cost per ton to decline sequentially throughout the balance of 2025.

預計 2025 年第二季的通話銷售量將與 2024 年季度基本持平。開採量的增加以及長壁開採的節奏意味著我們預計到 2025 年每噸成本將持續下降。

In our oil and gas royalties business, we expect sales of 1.55 million to 1.65 million barrels of oil, 6.1 million to 6.5 million MCF of natural gas and 775,000 to 825,000 barrels of natural gas liquids segment. Adjusted EBITDA expense is expected to be approximately 14% of oil and gas royalty revenues for the year on a BOE basis. This would represent another record year of volumes in 2025. We are guiding to $285 million to $320 million in total capital expenditures which excludes oil and gas minerals growth capital. This is down significantly from 2024 capital expenditures of $429 million as we near the end of a roughly two year period of elevated capital spend to make long term strategic investments in our riverview warrior Hamilton and Tunnel Ridge mines that ensure their reliable low cost operation for many years to come.

在我們的石油和天然氣特許權使用費業務中，我們預計石油銷售額為 155 萬至 165 萬桶，天然氣銷售額為 610 萬至 650 萬立方英尺，天然氣液體銷售額為 77.5 萬至 82.5 萬桶。調整後的 EBITDA 費用預計約佔當年石油和天然氣特許權使用費收入的 14%（以桶油當量計算）。這意味著 2025 年的銷售量將再創紀錄。我們預計總資本支出為 2.85 億至 3.2 億美元，其中不包括石油和天然氣礦產成長資本。這一數字較 2024 年的 4.29 億美元資本支出大幅下降，因為我們即將結束大約兩年的高資本支出期，對 riverview warrior Hamilton 和 Tunnel Ridge 礦進行長期戰略投資，以確保它們在未來許多年內可靠地低成本運營。

We expect the remaining work from these projects to be completed in early 2025 for distribution coverage purposes. Estimated maintenance capital per ton produced has been updated and reduced to $7.28 compared to $7.76 per ton produced in 2024.

我們預計這些項目的剩餘工作將於 2025 年初完成，以實現分銷覆蓋的目的。每噸產量的維護資本預計已更新並減少至 7.28 美元，而 2024 年為每噸 7.76 美元。

Additionally, we remain committed to investing in our oil and gas minerals business and we will actively pursue growth in this segment in 2025 with the ultimate amount of investment dependent upon the number and quality of the opportunities available and their ability to meet our underwriting standards.

此外，我們將繼續致力於投資我們的石油和天然氣礦產業務，並將在 2025 年積極尋求該領域的成長，最終的投資金額取決於可用機會的數量和品質及其滿足我們承保標準的能力。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Joe for comments on the market and his outlook for ARLP. Joe?

說完這些，我將把電話轉給喬，請他談談對市場的評論以及他對 ARLP 的展望。喬？

Thank you, Cary and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，卡里，大家早安。

As Cary mentioned, both the fourth quarter and the full year 2024 presented many challenges beyond our control. We entered 2024 knowing that elevated inventories held by our domestic customers were going to limit spot opportunities. Thus, we concentrated on booking commitments for more than 90% of targeted production.

正如 Cary 所說，第四季和 2024 年全年都面臨著許多我們無法控制的挑戰。進入 2024 年，我們知道國內客戶持有的高庫存將限制現貨機會。因此，我們集中精力完成90%以上的目標產量預訂承諾。

Unfortunately, that was not enough as low export prices, mild weather and lower than expected. Natural gas prices were a consistent thing throughout the year resulting in reduced sales volumes below 2023 levels.

不幸的是，這還不夠，因為出口價格低，天氣溫和，而且低於預期。天然氣價格全年走勢穩定，導致銷售量降至 2023 年以下的水平。

Difficult mining conditions at our Appalachian operations also adversely impacted our results for the full year. Notwithstanding these headwinds, I must thank the entire Alliance team for their dedication and resilience in delivering solid results.

阿巴拉契亞山脈作業區艱苦的採礦條件也對我們的全年業績產生了不利影響。儘管面臨這些阻力，我仍必須感謝整個聯盟團隊的奉獻精神和堅韌不拔的精神，取得了堅實的成果。

Our balance sheet is strong. We substantially completed the major infrastructure projects at Tunnel Ridge, Hamilton, Warrior and Riverview. And I'm particularly proud that the fourth quarter, full year 2024 was one of our safest periods ever with safety statistics 34% below 2023 and companywide results finishing below the national average.

我們的資產負債表強勁。我們基本上完成了Tunnel Ridge、Hamilton、Warrior和Riverview等主要基礎設施項目。我特別自豪的是，2024 年第四季是我們有史以來最安全的時期之一，安全統計數據比 2023 年低 34%，全公司業績低於全國平均水平。

We enter 2025 with high expectations. We expect improved coal production costs to counterbalance lower market prices, keeping coal segment margins near 2024 full year levels. The cold winter weather at the start of the year drove natural gas prices higher and increased coal consumption across our customers' facilities helping reduce inventories.

我們滿懷期待地邁入 2025 年。我們預計煤炭生產成本的改善將抵消較低的市場價格，使煤炭部門的利潤率保持在 2024 年全年水準附近。今年年初的寒冷冬季天氣導致天然氣價格上漲，並增加了客戶設施的煤炭消耗，有助於減少庫存。

We're seeing significant customer solicitations for both near term and long term supply contracts and anticipate our contracted book. The more closely approximate typical contracted levels in the coming weeks, the longer term outlook for our markets continues to strengthen, driven by two factors, unprecedented expected growth in baseload power demand and an increasing focus on grid reliability.

我們看到大量客戶對短期和長期供應合約的招標，並期待我們的合約訂單。未來幾週的合約水準越接近典型的合約水平，我們市場的長期前景就越加強強，這受到兩個因素的推動，即預期基本負載電力需求將出現前所未有的增長，以及對電網可靠性的日益關注。

The rapid expansion of data centers and AI infrastructure you've heard us discuss for some time now is fundamentally reshaping utility planning across our markets, particularly in PJN and miso regions.

您聽到我們討論過的資料中心和人工智慧基礎設施的快速擴張正在從根本上重塑我們整個市場的公用事業規劃，特別是在 PJN 和 miso 地區。

Recent developments including PJM's tenfold increase in capacity payments we highlighted highlighted on our last call reflect growing recognition of reliable baseload generations value today that only can come from coal, nuclear and combined cycle gas plants and with no new nuclear capacity and construction and limited natural gas generation coming online. The need to keep coal in the mix has never been clearer.

最近的發展包括我們在上次電話會議上強調的 PJM 將容量支付增加了十倍，這反映出人們越來越認識到當今可靠的基載發電的價值，而這種價值只能來自煤炭、核能和聯合循環燃氣電廠，而且沒有新的核能裝機和建設，上線的天然氣發電也有限。保留煤炭作為能源結構的必要性從未如此明確。

Driven by this reality, several utilities have either already or are now considering extending their coal plant operations beyond 2030 increasing their coal burn forecasts across their fleets. A particular note is that this has transpired on the regulatory framework of the previous administration.

在這種現實的驅動下，一些公用事業公司已經或正在考慮將其燃煤電廠的營運延長至 2030 年以後，並增加其所有電廠的煤炭消耗預測。特別值得注意的是，這是在上一屆政府的監管框架下發生的。

The new administration's early actions including an executive order to quote unleash American energy where coal was explicit, explicitly mentioned as one of these resources declaring an energy emergency, withdrawing from the Paris Accords and suspending subsidies to fund expensive renewables that don't produce on demand. Power signal, a shift towards a common sense approach to energy policy.

新政府的早期行動包括簽署行政命令，呼籲釋放美國能源，其中明確提到煤炭是其中一種資源，宣布能源緊急狀態，退出《巴黎協定》，並暫停對不能按需生產的昂貴可再生能源提供補貼。電力訊號，向常識性能源政策方法的轉變。

This regulatory environment should support the continued operation of strategic coal generation assets and align with the physical realities of maintaining grid reliability. Amid growing baseload demand on the oil and gas royalties front, we once again achieved record volumes in 2024. Even with only modest additions to our overall acreage. While commodity price volatility makes acquisition timing unpredictable.

這種監管環境應支持策略性煤炭發電資產的持續運營，並與維持電網可靠性的現實相適應。隨著石油和天然氣特許權使用費方面的基本負載需求不斷增長，我們在 2024 年再次實現了創紀錄的產量。即使我們的總種植面積僅略有增加。而大宗商品價格的波動使得收購時機難以預測。

We remain committed to growing our oil and gas minerals portfolio while maintaining our investment underwriting standards, we continue to favor the cash flow generation profile in the oil and gas royalties business and over the long term, our expectations of it becoming an increasingly large part of our overall portfolio are unchanged.

我們將繼續致力於擴大我們的石油和天然氣礦產投資組合，同時保持我們的投資承保標準，我們繼續青睞石油和天然氣特許權使用費業務中的現金流產生情況，從長遠來看，我們對其成為我們整體投資組合中越來越重要組成部分的預期沒有改變。

Another notable highlight during 2024 has been our Bitcoin mining operation which as previously disclosed began in 2020 as a pilot project to monetize underutilized electricity load capacity at our mines. This operation possibly impacted our net income during full year 2024 with a $22.4 million positive change in the mark to market value of our digital assets.

2024 年的另一個值得注意的亮點是我們的比特幣挖礦業務，如前所述，該業務於 2020 年啟動，作為一項試點項目，旨在將我們礦場中未充分利用的電力負載能力貨幣化。此項操作可能會對我們 2024 年全年的淨收入產生影響，使我們的數位資產的市值發生 2,240 萬美元的正向變化。

As Cary mentioned, the fair value of our digital assets was approximately $45 million a year in based on a Bitcoin price of roughly $93,000. During the 2024 quarter, we invested $5.9 million to replace third of our existing Bitcoin mining machines which will improve total fleet efficiency by approximately 30%.

正如 Cary 所提到的，根據比特幣約 93,000 美元的價格，我們數位資產的公允價值約為每年 4,500 萬美元。在 2024 年季度，我們投資 590 萬美元來更換現有的三分之一的比特幣挖礦機，這將使整體機隊效率提高約 30%。

In Alliance, we remain focused on providing reliable, affordable baseload energy while creating sustainable value across both our cooperations and royalty business.

在 Alliance，我們始終專注於提供可靠、實惠的基本負載能源，同時在我們的合作和特許權使用費業務中創造永續價值。

We have a strong balance sheet and industry leading cash generation capabilities across business cycles which positions us to execute strategic capital improvement programs at our assets, grow our minerals business and return capital to unit holders with market conditions, improving our inventories at normal levels. Our capital investments largely complete and costs projected to significantly improve. We are well--positioned for 2025.

我們擁有強勁的資產負債表和跨業務週期的行業領先現金生成能力，這使我們能夠對資產實施戰略資本改善計劃，發展礦產業務，並根據市場情況向單位持有人返還資本，從而將庫存改善至正常水平。我們的資本投資已基本完成，成本預計將大幅改善。我們已經為2025年做好了準備。

That concludes our prepared comments and I'll now ask the operator to open the call for questions. Operator?

我們的準備好的評論到此結束，現在我將請接線生開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁 (Nathan Martin)，The Benchmark Company。

I mean given all the discussions around tariffs over the weekend today, Joe, I want to start out just asking for your thoughts on how you believe some of those recent announcements as well as any potential retaliatory tariffs could impact a O's business and really the coal markets in general.

喬，考慮到今天週末有關關稅的所有討論，我首先想問一下您的看法，您認為最近的一些公告以及任何潛在的報復性關稅會如何影響 O 的業務以及整個煤炭市場。

It's hard to answer that question not knowing exactly what President Trump is totally focused on cheating. I think on the most recent one, dealing with Canada and Mexico, it's clear that his message is to try to focus on getting out on the border. And so I don't think that the efforts for TS are intended to create any type of a tariff war, so to speak, like maybe Canadas reacted to.

由於不知道川普總統到底專注於作弊什麼，所以很難回答這個問題。我認為，就最近與加拿大和墨西哥的對話而言，很明顯他的訊息是努力集中精力解決邊境問題。因此，我認為 TS 的努力並非旨在引發任何類型的關稅戰，就像加拿大可能做出的反應一樣。

So I think it appears to me that his efforts utilizing tariffs is largely negotiating. So it's really hard to know from my perspective exactly how that may impact us. I think specific to Canada and Mexico, it would be limited. I'm not sure that there's any products that would impact us. I mean, they've had dialed it back on energy and, we saw today that the energy price has actually benefited from that announcement, I believe as far as beyond that, the tariffs of China should not impact us that much.

因此我認為，他利用關稅的努力在很大程度上是一種談判。因此，從我的角度來看，很難知道這究竟會對我們產生什麼影響。我認為對於加拿大和墨西哥來說，這是有限的。我不確定是否有任何產品會對我們有影響。我的意思是，他們已經降低了能源關稅，我們今天看到，能源價格實際上因這項聲明而受益，我相信除此之外，中國的關稅不應該對我們造成太大影響。

Most of our products are domestic based. We do have products that we're buying from Europe that we don't see right now that there will be any impact. So we're not anticipating anything at this moment, but things are moving fast in Washington DC. So it's really hard to predict with any certainty what's going to happen tomorrow.

我們的產品大部分都是國內生產的。我們確實從歐洲購買了一些產品，但目前我們認為不會產生任何影響。因此我們目前還不期待任何事情，但華盛頓特區的事情正在迅速發展。因此，真的很難準確預測明天會發生什麼。

Shifting to the commitments you guys committed an additional 2.5 million tons. The domestic market looks like for 25 since last quarter, as you sitting at 23.5 million tons. Trailing historical levels at this point, I believe and clearly the 30 million ton goal you guys have for domestic shipments. But Joe, you did mention the contract book should more closely match normal levels in the coming weeks. How confident you can get to that 30 million ton number.

轉向承諾，你們又承諾了 250 萬噸。自上個季度以來，國內市場規模已達 25 萬噸。目前，落後於歷史水平，我相信，你們的國內出貨量目標顯然是 3000 萬噸。但是喬，你確實提到過，未來幾週的合約金額應該會更加接近正常水平。您有多大信心達到 3000 萬噸這個數字？

Do you need the kind of cold weather to continue that we've seen or plant retirements to get delayed? Additionally, just thinking back to last quarter, I think you guys said you're in the process of finalizing commitments on nearly 22 million domestic tons over the next few years. Could we get any update there?

您是否需要我們看到的那種寒冷天氣持續下去，或者工廠退役被推遲？此外，回想上個季度，我想你們說過正在敲定未來幾年近 2,200 萬噸國內進口量的承諾。我們能得到那裡的最新消息嗎？

Yeah. So I think that, we continue to have a goal to get to 30 million. Our guidance doesn't have us going to that level. I think that bars where we are, as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we have conversations going on right now that we hope to conclude in the next two or three weeks that are are impactful that will add some volume.

是的。所以我認為，我們仍然以達到 3000 萬為目標。我們的指導並沒有讓我們達到那個水準。我認為，正如我在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們現在正在進行對話，我們希望在接下來的兩三週內完成這些對話，這些對話將會產生影響並增加一些數量。

We continue to have conversations as we again discuss, essentially all our customers have indicated strong burn and that there will be opportunities this year for additional times. We know that there are also conversations to 42 to 3 year type contracts as well that will, that will occur over the. Yeah, can't, it's hard to say whether it will be done this quarter or towards the end of the second quarter, but we're very confident in the actual production and sales targets.

我們繼續進行對話，再次進行討論，基本上我們所有的客戶都表示有強烈的熱情，今年還會有額外的機會。我們知道，也有關於 42 至 3 年期合約的討論，這些合約將會在此期間發生。是的，不能，很難說這個季度或第二季末是否會完成，但我們對實際的生產和銷售目標非常有信心。

I'd like to believe that they are conservative, but we're in good position. I think the one area that we have been disappointed in 24 is the high sulfur export market and we know the demands there, but the pricing has not been at levels that we felt that we wanted to participate in.

我願意相信他們是保守的，但我們處於有利地位。我認為，24 個讓我們感到失望的領域是高硫出口市場，我們知道那裡的需求，但定價還沒有達到我們想要參與的水平。

So there is about 600,000 times in 2025 we would like to sell into that export market for our high sulfur production.

因此，到 2025 年，我們希望將大約 60 萬輛高硫汽車銷往出口市場。

But if it's not there, then we feel like we can place it in the domestic market. So where starting from a lower base than we were a year ago and last year was disappointed and that we didn't, we weren't able to hit our sales commitments and therefore not our production commitments.

但如果沒有的話，我們覺得可以將其投放到國內市場。因此，由於起點比一年前更低，去年我們感到失望，我們沒有能夠實現我們的銷售承諾，因此也沒有實現我們的生產承諾。

But this year, I think we've sort of put our guidance to something comparable to 2024 which I believe we're in a different situation because of where the inventories are with our domestic customers to wear. We've got more upside this year than we did a year ago.

但今年，我認為我們已經將我們的指導目標定在了與 2024 年相當的水平，我認為我們的情況有所不同，因為我們的國內客戶庫存情況不同。與去年相比，今年我們的成長潛力更大。

And then maybe just for the tons that you guys are having conversations on now. Clearly I know you don't like to speak about price, but maybe if I just think at a higher level of pricing on those tons are basically the market in general right now. Would you say that would fall in your guidance range for full year 2025?

然後可能只是為了你們現在正在談論的大量內容。顯然，我知道您不喜歡談論價格，但也許如果我只是考慮這些噸位的更高定價，那麼現在基本上就是整個市場的定價。您認為這會在 2025 年全年的指導範圍內嗎？

It's definitely been included in our guidance ranges. So I think that yeah, we definitely, we've advanced the conversation sufficient enough that we're comfortable to include those in our guidance numbers.

它肯定已包含在我們的指導範圍內。所以我認為，是的，我們確實已經充分推進了對話，我們願意將其納入我們的指導數字中。

And then just you touched briefly on the actual markets and I think the high sulfur discounts or something you guys pointed to earlier. If you had two prices, I think off the recent lows but still around $110 or so a metric ton. What kind of netbacks are you guys seeing at these levels? And again, what kind of API two price do you need to kind of incentivize more tons to move into the actual market?

然後您簡單談到了實際市場，我認為還有高硫折扣或您之前提到的一些事情。如果有兩個價格，我認為價格會低於近期低點，但仍在每公噸 110 美元左右。你們在這些水準上看到了什麼樣的淨回報？再說一遍，需要什麼樣的 API 2 價格才能激勵更多噸的石油進入實際市場？

So again, I think from the low sulfur markets, we're able to cut down on those. So I think from an export standpoint, we could be at levels comparable to 24 since most of that was either our Metco or what we ship from MC mining as well as our lower sulfur Gibson product. So our only real vulnerability here for the lower price and in trying to target that is that 600,000 I mentioned for the high sulfur market and it's still at levels that are significantly below what our domestic alternatives are.

因此，我認為，從低硫市場來看，我們能夠減少這些排放量。因此我認為從出口的角度來看，我們的水平可能與 24 相當，因為其中大部分是我們的 Metco 或我們從 MC 採礦運來的，以及我們的低硫 Gibson 產品。因此，我們唯一真正的弱點就是價格較低，而我們在試圖瞄準這一目標時，我提到的高硫市場為 600,000，其價格仍然遠低於我們國內替代品的水平。

So we will see if that changes towards the end of the year. So I'm going to give an actual cost number because it's not meaningful.

因此我們將看看這種情況在年底是否會改變。所以我要給一個實際成本數字，因為它沒有意義。

So I think the real issue is whether we end up selling those tons in the export market or the domestic market. And yeah, right now, I think that based on the feedback we've gotten, everything depends on what normal weather is for the balance of the year, specifically in the summer.

因此我認為真正的問題是我們最終是在出口市場還是國內市場銷售這些貨物。是的，現在，我認為根據我們收到的回饋，一切都取決於一年中平衡的正常天氣，特別是夏季的天氣。

What the demand would be in the back half of the year for spot shipments in the domestic market. So I think we got 600,000 times basically that are you there?

下半年國內市場現貨需求如何？所以我認為我們基本上得到了 60 萬次，你在嗎？

But I do believe that on the domestic side that we may have more opportunities at our other coal mines that could make up that difference. So again, I feel very comfortable at the midpoint of where we're guiding on sales this year. And I'd like to believe that's conservative and we'll be able to increase that.

但我確實相信，在國內方面，我們在其他煤礦可能有更多的機會來彌補這一差距。因此，我對我們今年銷售預期的中間值感到非常滿意。我相信這是保守的，我們將能夠增加這個數字。

And then just maybe one last thing, could you guys remind us how many domestic tons versus export tons you ended up shipping in 2024. And then Joe, you said earlier, likely to ship or hope to ship more tons domestically this year versus last year.

最後還有一件事，你們能否提醒我們 2024 年你們最終運送了多少國內噸位和多少出口噸位。然後喬，您之前說過，今年國內運輸的噸數可能會比去年多，或者希望多。

So I think for -- Nate, for 2024 our domestic tons were just a shade under 28 million tons. This this past year and so the balance was exports. So we did about 55.6 million export, 27.6 million on the domestic side. So export volumes this year were actually up versus previous year.

所以我認為——Nate，到 2024 年，我們國內的產量將略低於 2,800 萬噸。這是去年的情況，所以平衡就是出口。因此，我們的出口額約為 5,560 萬，國內出口額約 2,760 萬。因此今年的出口量實際上比去年增加。

Best of luck in '25.

祝你 25 年好運。

Mark Reichman, Noble Capital Markets.

馬克‧雷克曼 (Mark Reichman)，Noble Capital Markets。

It's just a quick question Appalachia, last quarter, you mentioned that both Matiki and and Tunnel Ridge that you would be into a new district. And so some of those geologic problems, would would go away. So, are you there yet? I mean, do you expect any of that to spill over into the first quarter of 2025 or is the operational issues? Is that, is that in the rearview mirror at this point?

這只是阿巴拉契亞的一個簡單的問題，上個季度，您提到 Matiki 和 Tunnel Ridge 都將進入一個新區。這樣，一些地質問題就會消失。那麼，你到了嗎？我的意思是，您是否預計其中任何一個問題會延續到 2025 年第一季度，還是只是營運問題？那，那是現在的後視鏡嗎？

As Cary mentioned, we've got two long haul moves. Both at one is at Tunnel Ridge and one is at Matiki in February. So we are hopeful at Mettiki with the next panel, things are going to be improved and therefore our cost will be improved starting with the next panel at Matiki.

正如卡里所提到的，我們有兩次長途搬家。一次是在隧道嶺 (Tunnel Ridge)，一次是在二月的馬蒂基 (Matiki)。因此，我們對 Mettiki 的下一塊面板抱有希望，情況將會得到改善，因此從 Matiki 的下一塊面板開始，我們的成本將會得到改善。

Now, as far as Tunnel Ridge, the next move is still in the same district. It's another small panel that will be completed by May early May to when we will be moving to the new district. And so that's where we should start seeing significant improvement for tunnel ridge starting May going forward when we get into those longer panels.

現在，就隧道嶺而言，下一步仍在同一地區。這是另一個小面板，將於五月初完成，屆時我們將搬遷到新區。因此，從 5 月開始，當我們進入那些更長的面板時，我們應該會看到隧道脊線的顯著改善。

Now having said that January came in a little bit better than expected right at the end of this panel. So hopefully this next short panel between February and May will definitely be we are hopeful it will be better than what we've experienced at Tunnel Ridge.

現在我們已經說過，一月份的情況比本次小組討論結束時預期的要好一些。因此，我們希望 2 月至 5 月之間的下一次簡短小組討論會一定會比我們在 Tunnel Ridge 經歷的更好。

This last panel was one of our toughest to be H1st from a mining condition standpoint. So we're hopeful that this last panel will be better than the one we're completing. And we're very confident that once we move into the new district in 25 we will see tunnel ridge getting back to production levels like we've been historically used to there. So we, I think Matiki continues to be hard to predict.

從採礦條件的角度來看，最後一個面板是我們最難的 H1st 面板之一。因此我們希望最後一個面板會比我們正在完成的面板更好。我們非常有信心，一旦我們在 25 年遷入新區，我們將看到隧道山脊恢復到我們過去習慣的生產水平。因此，我認為 Matiki 仍然很難預測。

We just felt that with our drilling program, we're seeing results that, that the drilling program and just the development, it's not correlating to the confidence level we typically have. So that's the one mind that is hard to, to predict. But I think all of our other operations, we feel a lot better about our geology in 2025 and what we experienced, over the last year, really in the Appalachian region.

我們只是覺得，透過我們的鑽探計劃，我們看到的結果是，鑽探計劃和開發與我們通常的置信水平並不一致。所以這是一個很難預測的想法。但我認為，對於我們所有其他的運營，我們對 2025 年的地質狀況以及去年在阿巴拉契亞地區的經歷感覺好多了。

And then on the total segment adjusted e expense per ton for the coal operations. I mean, I think the guidance was $43 to $45 in the fourth quarter. I think it was $48.9. Obviously the costs were elevated in the third quarter as well. So your new guidance is kind of $40 to $44. So a delta of what $4 a ton, what would cause you to be kind of at the low end versus the high end there?

然後根據總分部調整煤炭業務每噸的費用。我的意思是，我認為第四季的預期價格是 43 美元至 45 美元。我認為是 48.9 美元。顯然第三季的成本也有所上升。所以您的新指導價是 40 至 44 美元。那麼，每噸 4 美元的差異會導致價格處於低端而不是高端嗎？

I think when you look at the low end versus the high end, it's, it's going to be in the guidance ranges that you have for us mark when you, when you take a look at that. So when you look at our, our guidance range, if you're at the midpoint, as we were talking about, 33 and a quarter or something like that, I think it's the mid point of our guidance range.

我認為，當您比較低端與高端時，它將處於您為我們標記的指導範圍內，當您查看它時。因此，當您查看我們的指導範圍時，如果您處於中間點，正如我們所討論的，33.25 或類似的數字，我認為這是我們指導範圍的中點。

So if we can get to the upper end, I think what that's implying is you're probably going to have a little better market, marketability say for like the export market for what we're talking about there. So a lot of the benefit that you would have there would be coming out of the Illinois Basin region and being able to ship into, into that particular market. And so that can, that can benefit you overall when we look at the weighted average cost side and get to the upper end of that range.

因此，如果我們能夠達到高端，我認為這意味著你可能會擁有一個更好的市場，市場適銷性，例如我們正在談論的出口市場。因此，您將獲得的許多好處來自於伊利諾伊盆地地區，並且能夠運送到那個特定的市場。因此，當我們查看加權平均成本方面並達到該範圍的上限時，這總體上對您有利。

I would add just what Cary said is that we know in the first quarter, at Appalachia, our costs are going to be higher back to the fact that we're not into the longer panels at tunnel ridge until May.

我想補充的是，正如卡里所說，我們知道在第一季度，在阿巴拉契亞，我們的成本將會更高，因為我們要到五月才會開始生產隧道山脊的更長的面板。

So until we get out of those panels, it's going to be hard to get to the lower end of the range on the app side. And so there is a timing issue where the first quarter is going to be a little higher than what we expect in the sequential quarters after that.

因此，在我們擺脫這些面板之前，很難達到應用程式端的範圍的低端。因此存在一個時間問題，第一季的業績將比我們預期的接下來幾季的業績略高一些。

Yeah. And I think, I think we tried to address that in some of the prepared remarks where we were trying to, let that, it does look like, first quarter volumes will probably be down 6% to 10% over this this previous quarter overall. But we do as we get into these conditions is better conditions. As Joe mentioned, we do anticipate gradually improving costs on a quarterly basis throughout this year.

是的。我認為，我們試圖在一些準備好的評論中解決這個問題，我們試圖讓大家知道，看起來，第一季的銷量可能比上一季下降 6% 到 10%。但當我們進入這些條件時，我們確實會獲得更好的條件。正如喬所提到的，我們確實預計今年全年成本將按季度逐步改善。

So that volume is back to the two long wall moves. That's right, was dropping a unit MC mining.

因此，該體積又回到了兩個長牆移動。沒錯，就是掉落一個 MC 採礦單位。

And then just the last question, the guidance on the oil and gas royalties business, the, it's looks to me like kind of modest growth. It doesn't factor in, acquisitions, but on the acquisitions front, we hear a lot of commentary, Kinder Morgan and others pretty bullish on natural gas driven by, LNG and growth in electricity demand. Do you think you would kind of maintain your, your heavy oil weighting or do you think at some point you might entertain more gas weighted acquisitions?

最後一個問題，關於石油和天然氣特許權使用費業務的指導，在我看來，它看起來有點適度增長。它沒有將收購考慮在內，但在收購方面，我們聽到很多評論，金德摩根 (Kinder Morgan) 和其他人對受液化天然氣、液化天然氣和電力需求增長推動的天然氣非常看好。您是否認為您會維持重油持股比例，或者您是否認為在某個時候您可能會考慮進行更多的天然氣持股收購？

And I think, as I mentioned previously, we are active in Delaware Basin, which is a little bit more gas exposure than what Midland has had.

而且我認為，正如我之前提到的，我們在特拉華盆地非常活躍，那裡的天然氣儲量比米德蘭要多一些。

So I think that, we will look at each, each opportunity as they present themselves, but I would say we're still going to be we will still be more, more focused on the liquid side of the business. It's just a bit more predictable as far as pricing. We do see gas prices, the curve today is better than it was a year ago, which is good and there's still expectations that gas prices will be higher like you mentioned.

因此我認為，我們會仔細考慮出現的每一個機會，但我想說，我們仍然會更加關注業務的流動性方面。就定價而言，這更容易預測。我們確實看到了汽油價格，今天的曲線比一年前要好，這是好事，而且人們仍然預期汽油價格會像你提到的那樣走高。

So we will not shy away from investing in gas and it's still valuable by product or it's still a product that we are investing in. So it's not like we don't get gas when we buy the minerals that are higher percent oil. So we benefit from both. So, but as far as trying to go to the Hainesville something that's or up to, the Utica or Marcellus, I think our focus is still going to be more in the Permian.

因此，我們不會迴避對天然氣的投資，它仍然是有價值的產品，或仍然是我們正在投資的產品。因此，當我們購買石油含量較高的礦物時，並不代表我們不會得到天然氣。因此，我們從雙方都受益。所以，但就嘗試去海恩斯維爾或尤蒂卡或馬塞勒斯而言，我認為我們的重點仍然放在二疊紀。

David Marsh, Singular Research.

大衛·馬什（David Marsh），Singular Research。

Just wanted to start on the pricing side for your forecast for '24. I mean, obviously you guys have you, it looks like there's, there's certainly a prevailing thought that, we're going to come down particularly in the Illinois base on pricing this year. What, what are some factors that might actually, help that kind of swing back up or there is there a potential upside to, what you're guiding to there?

只是想從定價方面開始對 24 年進行預測。我的意思是，顯然你們有，看起來，肯定有一個普遍的想法，那就是我們今年的定價將會下降，特別是在伊利諾伊州。哪些因素可能真正幫助這種復甦，或者存在潛在的上升空間，正如您所引導的那樣？

Well, I mean it's all about supply and demand, right? So whether it will be a factor I mean we're not seeing we're seeing production being stable to down. And I think that when you look at power demand, the demand was good last year. It's just that the deliveries were not at a level because they had the elevated inventories.

嗯，我的意思是這一切都與供給和需求有關，對嗎？所以這是否會成為一個因素我的意思是我們沒有看到產量穩定或下降。我認為，當你看電力需求時，去年的需求很好。只是由於庫存增加，導致交付量未達到同一水準。

So I do believe that demand is going to be strong. And then it's just a matter of really whether that's going to determine whether we can have some type of supply demand imbalance. It could push the prices up a little bit. I think that and they're still but there's still some difference between a spot price and a contract price. And I believe that the contract prices are going to have to support, longer term contract prices will have to support prices higher than what you see in the indexes to incentivize the supply to be there.

因此我確實相信需求將會強勁。然後，這實際上只是一個問題，即這是否會決定我們是否會出現某種供需失衡。這可能會稍微推高價格。我認為是這樣，但現貨價格和合約價格之間仍然存在一些差異。我相信合約價格必須得到支持，長期合約價格必須支持高於指數中看到的價格，以激勵供應。

So our guidance is really driven to the prices that benefit from the contracts we have but also anticipated with the price point that we're talking to our customers about. So whether the guidance, back to what can happen this year is really going to be on the spot price as to how that could help you increase the higher end of the range.

因此，我們的指導實際上是受惠於我們現有的合約的價格，同時也預期了我們與客戶討論的價格點。因此，無論指導意見如何，回到今年可能發生的情況，這實際上都將取決於現貨價格，以及這如何幫助您提高範圍的高端。

Then on the contract prices that we're negotiating right now and those are already built in.

然後是我們現在正在協商的合約價格，這些已經包含在內了。

So there's you, like I said, if the weather cooperates to where we're higher than normal in the summer, you could see some upside in the price for the spot times that we got built into the back half of the year.

所以，就像我說的，如果天氣配合得當，夏季的價格會高於正常水平，那麼我們在今年下半年預計的現貨價格可能會有所上漲。

And then just on the digital asset side, I mean, you guys have amassed a nice holding at this point. Could you just talk about, what, what your, your planning is there in terms of your, whether to hold, whether to, sell it at, more favorable spot prices. I mean, just kind of talk about, how you think about that asset. Obviously, it's become, more meaningful at this point.

然後就數位資產方面而言，我的意思是，你們現在已經累積了大量資產。您能否談談您的計劃，是否持有，是否以更優惠的現貨價格出售。我的意思是，只是談談你如何看待該資產。顯然，現在它變得更有意義了。

Historically, we've taken an approach of covering our expenses on a monthly basis by selling sufficient and then holding the balance. We do believe based on the model, the that prices will continue to go up. I think the Trump administration is very, very supportive of Bitcoin particular, but crypto generally.

從歷史上看，我們採取的方法是每月透過銷售足夠的產品並持有餘額來支付我們的費用。根據該模型，我們確實相信價格將繼續上漲。我認為川普政府非常支持比特幣，但總體上也支持加密貨幣。

So we have decided that for January, we will not cover expenses. We think that there's more upside and, we're going to continue to monitor closely the policies of the Trump administration to determine, whether we should continue to hold or whether we should revert back to what we've been doing the last year or so.

因此，我們決定，一月不承擔費用。我們認為還有更多的上行空間，我們將繼續密切關注川普政府的政策，以確定我們是否應該繼續持有，或者是否應該恢復到去年左右的做法。

Just adding General, not putting any more investment into Bitcoin by selling to cover our expenses.

只是增加一般性，不再透過出售比特幣來投資以支付我們的開支。

So we'll, by the end of the quarter, we'll make a judgment based on what policies we see occurring as to what we think that may or may not, how that will impact, our whole decision or our, or our monetization. So, but to date, we have not sold any Bitcoin beyond just doing what we needed to do just to cover our expenses on a monthly basis.

因此，在本季末，我們將根據我們看到的政策做出判斷，確定哪些政策可能會或可能不會對我們的整個決策或我們的貨幣化產生影響。所以，但到目前為止，除了每月支付我們所需的開支外，我們還沒有出售任何比特幣。

Just wanted to get that update. I appreciate that. And then just lastly for me, just in terms of the administration change, obviously very favorable. Could you just talk about any efforts by the company to better engage the administration or any outreach from the administration, to the industry and the company in general and just talk about anything that you can provide in terms of color, in terms of desire to keep plants open longer to help satisfy that energy demand.

只是想獲得更新資訊。我很感激。最後，對我來說，就行政變革而言，顯然是非常有利的。您能否談談公司為更好地與管理層接觸所做的任何努力，或者管理層對整個行業和公司所做的任何推廣，以及您在色彩方面可以提供的任何幫助，以及希望延長工廠的運營時間以幫助滿足能源需求的願望。

We're very active and trying to determine the proper policies for the Trump administration. They've got several fronts that they're trying to determine how to make government more efficient with the dose as an example. So there are areas of redundancy where things are being done because they've always been done that way. Regulations that have been on the books for 20 years for reasons 20 years ago, it was relevant, but today it's not.

我們非常積極並試圖確定適合川普政府的政策。他們正在從多個方面嘗試確定如何以劑量為例提高政府效率。因此，存在一些冗餘的地方，因為事情一直都是這樣做的。由於某些原因，這些規定已經存在 20 年了，20 年前它們是相關的，但今天卻不再相關了。

So we're doing what we can to educate the Trump administration, here's a slew of regulations that we live with every day that don't make any difference today in today's economy, with the technology that we have and, and and the ability to remove certain regulations that are just increasing costs with no real benefit.

因此，我們正在盡我們所能教育川普政府，我們每天都要面對一系列法規，但這些法規在當今的經濟條件下、以我們擁有的技術，這些法規沒有任何作用，而且我們有能力取消某些只會增加成本而沒有實際好處的法規。

As an example, you've got six or seven regulations that the Biden administration put in at the last minute just to try to reduce coal production primarily as well as for our customers to discourage the coal plants from staying open. All those are being addressed. So we again are working with our customers and trying to make sure that communication to the Trump administration is consistent to be able to, to address the concerns with, having the both the volume of production they want, but the grid brilliance resilience that they're looking for.

舉個例子，拜登政府在最後一刻推出了六、七項法規，主要是為了減少煤炭產量，同時也為了我們的客戶，阻止燃煤電廠繼續開工。所有這些問題都正在解決。因此，我們再次與客戶合作，並試圖確保與川普政府的溝通保持一致，以便能夠解決他們的擔憂，既擁有他們想要的生產量，又擁有他們所尋求的電網卓越彈性。

So again, there's open dialogue to where the Trump administration is reaching out to us. I'm sure to others, but to us in particular, but also to our associations wanting input on areas where they can achieve their goals and their objectives.

所以，我們再次就川普政府與我們接觸的地方展開了公開對話。我相信其他人，特別是我們自己，也希望我們的協會能夠在哪些領域獲得他們的意見，以實現他們的目標和宗旨。

We also have the tax area that's important to the Trump administration is important to us that we're again trying to educate and make sure everybody understands the importance of the MLP structure and bonus depreciation and things of that nature.

我們也關注對川普政府來說很重要的稅收領域，我們再次嘗試教育並確保每個人都了解 MLP 結構和獎金折舊以及諸如此類的事情的重要性。

So there's significant dialogue so that the Trump administration can achieve their goals and objectives to reduce unnecessary regulations that are impacting permitting or impacting safety or impacting return on investments.

因此，進行重要的對話是為了川普政府能夠實現其目標和目的，減少影響許可、影響安全或影響投資回報的不必要的監管。

Exporting. I mean there's a whole list of things that the previous administration was doing to try to interfere with us being low cost producers and expanding markets and maintaining markets that the Trump administration is doing just the opposite. They want us to and to make good returns on our investments, but also be there for the long term and plan for the long term so that, America can have the energy it needs.

出口。我的意思是，前政府做了很多事情，試圖干涉我們成為低成本生產者、擴大市場和維持市場，而川普政府所做的恰恰相反。他們希望我們不僅能從投資中獲得豐厚的回報，還能著眼於長遠，做好長期規劃，讓美國能擁有所需的能源。

I mean, as I said, in my prepared remarks, you can't just flick a switch and turn these things, these policies overnight to get what you want. And Biden administration thought you could do that you could shut down coal and that all of a sudden there would be replacements and that was not the case. It is not the case.

我的意思是，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，你不能只是輕輕一按開關，在一夜之間改變這些事情、這些政策來獲得你想要的東西。拜登政府認為你可以做到這一點，你可以關閉煤炭，然後突然就會有替代品，但事實並非如此。事實並非如此。

And right now because of the demand increase that everybody continues to believe in, every source of fuel is needed including coal. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we believe and we're seeing every Irp that's coming out from our utility customers, they're all extending the life of their plants.

現在，由於每個人都相信需求會增加，所以需要包括煤炭在內的每種燃料來源。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們相信並且我們看到來自我們的公用事業客戶的每個 IRP 都在延長其工廠的壽命。

And we see, and we also see that they plan to not only extend the lives of the plant, but actually use them more in order to meet the demand that they've got for their customers. So we feel like, the victory in November is definitely positive for our company.

我們看到，我們還看到他們計劃不僅延長工廠的壽命，而且實際上更多地使用它們以滿足客戶的需求。所以我們覺得，十一月的勝利對我們公司來說無疑是件好事。

Dave Storms, Stonegate.

戴夫‧斯托姆斯 (Dave Storms)，Stonegate。

Just want to start with domestic inventory levels and maybe just a sense of how much further you think they would need to fall to maybe boost pricing. And if there's anything other than weather that you think would get those inventory levels lower.

我想先從國內庫存水準開始，然後大概了解您認為庫存還需要下降多少才能提高價格。您認為除了天氣之外，還有其他因素會降低庫存水準嗎？

I missed your first part of your question.

我錯過了你問題的第一部分。

Just around domestic inventory levels and how much further you believe they need to fall to maybe increase pricing a little bit.

僅就國內庫存水準而言，您認為庫存還需要下降多少才有可能稍微提高價格。

Yeah. So I think that the and we're seeing again, customer by customer, every one of them is different, but we've definitely moved in the right direction to where in most cases. I think we're nearing that proper balance that we don't have that overhang. So what we will see in '25 is if they have the same demand, but more than likely it's going to be a little bit better but that there will be more deliveries and that and that there's going to be that opportunity for us.

是的。所以我認為，我們再次看到，每個客戶都是不同的，但在大多數情況下，我們肯定朝著正確的方向前進。我認為我們已經接近適當的平衡，不再存在這種懸而未決的問題。因此，我們將在 25 年看到，他們是否有相同的需求，但更有可能的是情況會好一些，但交付量會更多，這對我們而言就是機會。

We did not build that in the plan as we said, we sort of stay where we were. So there is some upside there now as far as pricing, it's really going to be back on the supply side and we're not privy to what other competitors are doing. We don't expect that there's going to be any increase and from what we can tell the export market for our competitors to where they're exporting.

正如我們所說，我們沒有在計劃中加入這一點，我們會保持原樣。因此，就定價而言，現在存在一些上行空間，這實際上將回到供應方面，而我們並不清楚其他競爭對手在做什麼。我們預計不會有任何成長，從我們可以了解的競爭對手的出口市場來看。

The only there's some high sulfur producers that are in the export market that, that could bring more of their tonnage into the domestic. It's just hard to know. I don't know, I can, I don't have visibility on exactly what they're doing. But so it's a supply situation and then it really just gets back to what our competitors are doing right now.

只有一些高硫生產商進入出口市場，這可以將更多的產量帶入國內市場。這很難知道。我不知道，我無法知道他們到底在做什麼。但這是一個供應情況，然後它實際上回到了我們的競爭對手現在所做的事情。

I don't have any reason to believe that there's any increase going on. So I do believe we're in position later in the year, second half of the year that we could see definite demand and the prices could be higher than what we projected in our plan. But I wish I had more visibility to answer that question.

我沒有任何理由相信有任何成長。因此，我確實相信，在今年晚些時候，也就是下半年，我們將面臨明確的需求，而且價格可能會高於我們計劃中的預測。但我希望我能更清楚地回答這個問題。

And then just one more for me with the regulatory environment. Are you seeing any notable changes in the oil and gas segment? Maybe more increased in demand for competition for securing properties?

然後我再問一個關於監管環境的問題。您是否看到石油和天然氣領域發生了任何顯著變化？也許對確保房產的競爭需求進一步增加？

Yeah, maybe if you could just repeat the question one more time just in terms of increased demand, I think in terms of the Permian, I think, demand continues to be to be good for volumes coming out of the Permian Basin for us. So we feel we feel very good with the properties where we're at and in our locations, in terms of our minerals portfolio for increased demands going forward.

是的，如果您可以再重複一次關於需求增加的問題，我認為就二疊紀盆地而言，我認為，對我們來說，二疊紀盆地的產量需求仍然良好。因此，就我們的礦產組合而言，我們對我們所在的位置和位置感到非常滿意，可以滿足未來不斷增長的需求。

And then just demand of brown acquiring new, new assets. Is that becoming a more competitive market maybe?

然後布朗就要求收購新的、新的資產。這是否會使市場競爭更加激烈？

Yeah, I say there is, it is competitive, it's always been competitive. We do believe that there's going to be a lot of opportunity in 2025 for us to engage actively to try to and be successful with acquiring some property. So we do believe that there's going to be adequate demand. If you will, there's going to be several packages that we believe we will be being auctioned off and we plan to participate in those and whether we're successful or not, we'll see but not afraid of competition.

是的，我認為有，競爭很激烈，一直都有競爭。我們確實相信，2025 年將會有許多機會讓我們積極參與並嘗試成功收購一些房產。因此我們確實相信會有足夠的需求。如果你願意的話，我們相信我們會拍賣幾個套餐，我們計劃參與其中，無論我們成功與否，我們都會看到但不怕競爭。

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Cary for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議交還給卡里 (Cary) 作結束語。

Thank you operator and to everyone on the call today. We appreciate your time this morning and also your continued support and interest in Alliance. Our next call to discuss our first quarter 2025 financial and operating results is currently expected to occur in April and we hope everyone will join us again at that time. This concludes our call for the day. Thank you.

感謝接線員以及今天通話中的每個人。我們感謝您今天上午的時間，也感謝您對聯盟的持續支持和關注。我們下次討論 2025 年第一季財務和營運業績的電話會議目前預計將於 4 月舉行，我們希望屆時大家能再次加入我們。今天的通話到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. You now may disconnect your lines and thank you for your yparticipation.

謝謝。現在您可以斷開您的線路並感謝您的參與。