Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to Alliance Resource Partners LP third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, participants are in a listen-only mode. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Alliance Resource Partners LP 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。此時，參與者處於只聽模式。（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Cary Marshall, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹資深副總裁兼財務長卡里‧馬歇爾 (Cary Marshall)。謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome, everyone. Earlier this morning, Alliance Resource Partners released its third quarter 2024 financial and operating results, and we will now discuss those results as well as our perspective on current market conditions and outlook for 2024. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call to answer your questions.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎大家。今天早上早些時候，Alliance Resource Partners 發布了 2024 年第三季財務和營運業績，我們現在將討論這些結果以及我們對當前市場狀況和 2024 年前景的看法。在我們準備好的發言之後，我們將召開電話會議來回答您的問題。

Before beginning, a reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions contained in our filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are also reflected in this morning's press release.

在開始之前，請注意，我們今天的一些言論可能包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含的各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響，也反映在今天上午的新聞稿中。

While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected. In providing these remarks, the partnership has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by law to do so.

雖然這些前瞻性陳述是基於我們目前掌握的信息，但如果這些風險或不確定性中的一項或多項成為現實，或者如果我們的基本假設被證明是不正確的，則實際結果可能與我們預測或預期的結果有重大差異。在提供這些言論時，合作夥伴沒有義務公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明，無論是由於新資訊、未來事件或其他原因，除非法律要求這樣做。

Finally, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions and reconciliations of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are contained at the end of this morning's press release, which has been posted on our website and furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K.

最後，我們也將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP 財務指標之間差異的定義和調節包含在今天上午新聞稿的末尾，該新聞稿已發佈在我們的網站上，並以8-K 表格形式提交給SEC 。

With the required preliminaries out of the way, I will begin with a review of our results for the third quarter, touch on our guidance for the year and then turn the call over to Joe Craft, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, for his comments.

在完成必要的準備工作後，我將首先回顧我們第三季度的業績，談談我們今年的指導，然後將電話轉給我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官喬·克拉夫特(Joe Craft) ，他的評論。

Starting with our coal operations. Our performance during the third quarter of 2024, which we refer to as our 2024th quarter continue to be impacted by persistently low natural gas prices, low export market activity and difficult mining conditions at our Appalachia operations. However, our total and domestic coal sales shipments did improve from the previous quarter, increasing 6.7% and 11.9%, respectively.

從我們的煤炭業務開始。我們在 2024 年第三季（我們稱之為 2024 年第三季）的業績繼續受到天然氣價格持續走低、出口市場活動低迷以及阿巴拉契亞業務採礦條件困難的影響。然而，我們的煤炭總銷售量和國內煤炭銷售量確實比上季有所改善，分別成長了 6.7% 和 11.9%。

Additionally, and in response to the soft market conditions, we took proactive steps during the third quarter to more closely align production with shipments. The increased shipments and adjustments to production resulted in a reduction of our coal inventory by over 500,000 tons, which we expect will continue to decline over the coming months to an end-of-year target range of 500,000 to 1 million tons.

此外，為了應對疲軟的市場狀況，我們在第三季採取了積極措施，使生產與發貨更加緊密地結合。出貨量的增加和產量的調整導致我們的煤炭庫存減少了超過 50 萬噸，我們預計未來幾個月將繼續下降至年底目標範圍 50 萬噸至 100 萬噸。

Coal sales volumes of 8.4 million tons were essentially in line with the 2023 quarter and increased 6.7% sequentially. While coal production of 7.8 million tons declined 7.2% year-over-year and 8.1% sequentially. In the Illinois Basin, tons sold increased by 3.1% sequentially due to higher sales volumes from our River View and Hamilton mines. In Appalachia, tons sold increased by 16.9% in the 2024 quarter compared to the sequential quarter, primarily due to improved conditions on the Ohio River, allowing for higher shipments from our Tunnel Ridge operation.

煤炭銷量為 840 萬噸，與 2023 年季度基本持平，季增 6.7%。煤炭產量780萬噸，年減7.2%，季減8.1%。在伊利諾伊州盆地，由於河景礦和漢密爾頓礦的銷售增加，銷售量較上月增加了 3.1%。在阿巴拉契亞，2024 年季度的銷量較上一季增加了 16.9%，這主要是由於俄亥俄河狀況改善，使我們的 Tunnel Ridge 業務的發貨量增加。

For the 2024 quarter, coal sales price per ton sold at $63.57 was down 2.1% year-over-year and 2.6% sequentially, primarily due to lower Appalachia volumes and pricing related to our export sales from our MC Mining and Mettiki operations. Appalachia coal sales price per ton declined 5.8% and 7.7% compared to the prior year and sequential quarters, respectively.

2024 年季度，每噸煤炭銷售價格為 63.57 美元，年減 2.1%，季減 2.6%，這主要是由於阿巴拉契亞產量和與 MC Mining 和 Mettiki 業務出口銷售相關的定價下降。阿巴拉契亞地區每噸煤炭銷售價格比去年同期和連續幾季分別下降 5.8% 和 7.7%。

Segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold was $46.11 during the 2024 quarter, increasing 11.9% year-over-year and 1.6% sequentially. In Appalachia, segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold increased 19.3% versus the 2023 quarter but declined 1.3% versus the sequential quarter. The increase in year-over-year cost was due to a longwall move at our Tunnel Ridge operation, higher subsidence costs and challenging mining conditions at all three Appalachia operations that lower recoveries and increased costs related to roof control and maintenance.

2024 年季度，每噸銷售的部門調整後 EBITDA 費用為 46.11 美元，年增 11.9%，季增 1.6%。在阿巴拉契亞地區，每噸銷售的部門調整後 EBITDA 費用較 2023 年季度增長 19.3%，但較上一季下降 1.3%。成本同比增加的原因是我們的隧道山脊作業的長壁移動、沉降成本上升以及所有三個阿巴拉契亞作業的採礦條件具有挑戰性，導致回收率降低以及與頂板控制和維護相關的成本增加。

In the Illinois Basin, segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold was $37.79, an increase of 7.2% year-over-year and 1.2% sequentially. The increase versus the 2023 quarter was due primarily to lower shipments and an extended longwall move at our Hamilton operation due to high inventories at the mine.

在伊利諾州盆地，每噸銷售的部門調整後 EBITDA 費用為 37.79 美元，年增 7.2%，季增 1.2%。與 2023 年季度相比，這一增長主要是由於發貨量減少以及漢密爾頓礦場庫存高而導致長壁開採活動的延長。

Turning to our Oil & Gas Royalty segment. Our third quarter volumes reached 864,000 barrels of oil equivalent, or BOE, representing an 11.9% increase year-over-year and a 5.8% increase sequentially, driven by new well activity on our royalty acres in the Permian Basin. Higher volumes were largely offset by lower commodity pricing for crude, natural gas and NGLs. Average realized sales prices per BOE were down 9.8% versus the 2023 quarter and down 10.6% sequentially.

轉向我們的石油和天然氣特許權使用費部分。我們第三季的產量達到 864,000 桶油當量 (BOE)，年增 11.9%，環比增長 5.8%，這得益於我們在二疊紀盆地特許權土地上的新油井活動。銷量的增加在很大程度上被原油、天然氣和液化天然氣的大宗商品價格下降所抵消。每桶油當量的平均實現銷售價格較 2023 年季度下降 9.8%，比上一季下降 10.6%。

During the 2024 quarter, our coal royalty segment reported a 2.3% increase in coal royalty volumes and a 3% decrease in coal royalty revenue per ton compared to the prior year. Sequentially, coal royalty tons were up 2.7%. Overall, consolidated revenue was $613.6 million, down 3.6% from $636.5 million in the year ago period. Sequentially, consolidated revenue was up 3.4% due to higher coal sales tons.

2024 年季度，我們的煤炭特許權使用費部門報告稱，與前一年相比，煤炭特許權使用費量增加了 2.3%，每噸煤炭特許權使用費收入下降了 3%。隨後，煤炭特許權使用費噸數上漲了 2.7%。總體而言，合併收入為 6.136 億美元，比去年同期的 6.365 億美元下降 3.6%。由於煤炭銷量增加，綜合收入隨後增加了 3.4%。

Our net income for the 2024 quarter attributable to ARLP was $86.3 million or $0.66 per unit, which compares to $153.7 million or $1.18 per unit in the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA in the 2024 quarter was $170.4 million, which compares to $227.6 million in the prior year period. These decreases reflect the lower revenues and higher total operating costs previously disclosed.

我們 2024 年季度歸屬於 ARLP 的淨利潤為 8,630 萬美元，即每單位 0.66 美元，而去年同期為 1.537 億美元，即每單位 1.18 美元。2024 年季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1.704 億美元，而去年同期為 2.276 億美元。這些下降反映了先前披露的收入減少和總營運成本增加。

Now turning to our balance sheet and uses of cash. Alliance generated $209.3 million of cash flow from operating activities in the 2024 quarter compared to $215.8 million in the sequential quarter, invested $110.3 million in capital expenditures and paid our quarterly distribution of $0.70 per unit. At quarter end, our total and net leverage ratios were 0.64 times and 0.39 times total debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA and liquidity was $657.7 million, which included approximately $195.4 million of cash on the balance sheet.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表和現金使用。Alliance 在 2024 年季度的經營活動中產生了 2.093 億美元的現金流，而上一季為 2.158 億美元，投資了 1.103 億美元的資本支出，並支付了每單位 0.70 美元的季度分配。截至季末，我們的總槓桿率和淨槓桿率分別為總債務與過去12 個月調整後EBITDA 的0.64 倍和0.39 倍，流動性為6.577 億美元，其中包括資產負債表上約1.954 億美元的現金。

During the 2024 quarter, we continue to make good progress on all of the capital and infrastructure projects at our operations that we have discussed throughout previous earnings calls. The new portal at our Warrior operation should be occupied by the beginning of 2025, which will consolidate three portals into one and generate meaningful expense savings.

在 2024 年季度，我們在先前的財報電話會議中討論過的營運中的所有資本和基礎設施項目繼續取得良好進展。我們 Warrior 營運中心的新入口網站預計將於 2025 年初投入使用，這將把三個入口網站合併為一個，並節省大量費用。

The West Alexander portal at Tunnel Ridge is anticipated to be fully completed by the beginning of 2025 and will allow us to access better mining conditions than the current panel and reduce overtime and other expenses next year. We are beginning to receive shipments of the new longwall shields at our Hamilton operation and anticipate all of the shields to be delivered and in place in mid-2025, which we expect will enhance productivity and generate considerable maintenance-related savings for Hamilton at that mine -- at that time.

Tunnel Ridge 的 West Alexander 入口網站預計將於 2025 年初全面完工，這將使我們能夠獲得比目前面板更好的採礦條件，並減少明年的加班費和其他費用。我們開始在漢密爾頓作業處接收新型長壁盾構的發貨，並預計所有盾構將於 2025 年中期交付並就位，我們預計這將提高漢密爾頓該礦的生產力並節省大量與維護相關的費用-當時。

And finally, at the River View complex, the Henderson County mine interseam slope is approaching completion one month ahead of schedule. The first unit is now scheduled to start December 1. By September of 2025, we expect the production mix at the River View complex will be three units at the River View mine and six units at the Henderson County mine. This project, when completed, should also contribute to lower operating cost per ton beginning next year from our River View complex with the full benefit of the investment occurring in 2026.

最後，在河景綜合體，亨德森縣礦山夾層斜坡即將提前一個月完工。第一個單元現已計劃於 12 月 1 日啟動。到 2025 年 9 月，我們預計 River View 綜合大樓的生產組合將包括 River View 礦場的 3 台機組和 Henderson County 礦場的 6 台機組。該項目完成後，還應有助於從明年開始降低我們河景綜合體的每噸營運成本，並在 2026 年實現投資的全部效益。

Now turning to our guidance. Based on our results year-to-date, current visibility into our order book and outlook for markets through year-end, we are maintaining our full year guidance for coal sales volumes, coal sales price per ton sold, segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold, royalties volumes and royalties unit expenses.

現在轉向我們的指導。根據我們今年迄今的業績、目前對訂單的了解以及年底的市場前景，我們維持對煤炭銷售、每噸煤炭銷售價格、每噸部門調整後 EBITDA 費用的全年指引銷售量、特許權使用費數量和特許權使用費單位費用。

We now expect total coal volumes and realized coal sales prices to be closer to the bottom of their respective ranges and for segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton to be at the high end of the range. For modeling purposes, the two longwall moves previously scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year at Tunnel Ridge and Mettiki are now planned to occur in the first quarter of 2025, leaving one in the fourth quarter at our Hamilton mine.

我們現在預計煤炭總量和實現的煤炭銷售價格將接近各自範圍的底部，而每噸部門調整後的 EBITDA 費用將處於該範圍的高端。出於建模目的，原定於今年第四季在 Tunnel Ridge 和 Mettiki 進行的兩次長壁開採現在計劃於 2025 年第一季進行，而第四季則在漢密爾頓礦場進行一次。

We made some minor adjustments to our 2024 committed and priced sales tons to reflect modest net contracting activity and movement in the timing of customer shipments that occurred during the 2024 quarter. At the end of the 2024 quarter, our committed tonnage for 2024 was 33.4 million tons. Of that total, 28.2 million tons are currently committed to the domestic market while 5.2 million tons are committed to the export markets. More notably, we increased our committed tonnage for 2025 by 5.9 million tons with significant contracting activity from our domestic customers. In total, we are in the process of finalizing new contract commitments for approximately 21.7 million tons over the 2025 to 2030 time frame.

我們對 2024 年的承諾銷售和定價銷售進行了一些小幅調整，以反映 2024 年季度發生的適度的淨合約活動和客戶發貨時間的變化。截至2024年季末，我們2024年的承諾噸位為3,340萬噸。其中，2,820萬噸目前供應國內市場，520萬噸供應出口市場。更值得注意的是，由於國內客戶的大量承包活動，我們將 2025 年的承諾噸位增加了 590 萬噸。總的來說，我們正在最終確定 2025 年至 2030 年期間約 2,170 萬噸的新合約承諾。

We are also in active discussions with our customers to add to future commitments that if secured, will lift our 2025 domestic sales order book to a level near our historical contracted positions heading into the new year. The remainder of our guidance ranges remain the same.

我們也正在與客戶積極討論，以增加未來的承諾，如果這些承諾得到落實，將把我們 2025 年的國內銷售訂單簿提升到接近我們進入新一年的歷史合約頭寸的水平。我們的其餘指導範圍保持不變。

And with that, I will turn the call over to Joe for comments on the market and his outlook for ARLP. Joe?

接下來，我將把電話轉給 Joe，徵求他對市場的評論以及他對 ARLP 的展望。喬？

Thank you, Cary, and good morning, everyone. I want to begin my comments by thanking the entire Alliance organization for their resilience, continued hard work and dedication. At our co-operations, we had our lowest injury rate for a quarter since the fourth quarter of 2017, excluding the 2020 COVID impact quarters. Every operation safety statistics have improved from 2023 to 2024.

謝謝你，卡里，大家早安。我首先要感謝整個聯盟組織的堅韌、持續的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。在我們的合作機構中，我們的受傷率是自 2017 年第四季以來最低的一個季度（不包括 2020 年受新冠疫情影響的季度）。2023年至2024年，各項營運安全統計數據均有所改善。

Our results year-to-date are currently 32%, below the ARLP 2023 year-end comparable incident rate. In addition to the excellent safety results, Alliance had two national champions from the National Mine Rescue contest in August. Jake Saer from Tunnel Ridge in the Bench Competition and James Forest from Warrior in the Freeship Competition. Congratulations to Jake and James.

我們今年迄今的結果目前為 32%，低於 ARLP 2023 年底的可比較事故率。除了優異的安全成績外，聯盟在8月的全國礦場救援大賽中還獲得了兩名全國冠軍。來自 Tunnel Ridge 的 Jake Saer 參加了長凳比賽，來自 Warrior 的 James Forest 參加了 Freeship 比賽。祝賀傑克和詹姆斯。

Cary did an excellent job summarizing challenging near-term market conditions and adverse mining conditions that impacted our third quarter 2024 results. Unfortunately, the hotter-than-normal weather we saw at the start of the summer in several regions of the country failed to carry through in the back half of the 2024 quarter, limiting spot domestic sales opportunities and caused shipments on some of our higher contracted coal sales to be deferred. This, coupled with export pricing, keeping us out of the market led to our sales volumes being below expectations for the 2024 quarter.

Cary 出色地總結了影響我們 2024 年第三季業績的具有挑戰性的近期市場狀況和不利的採礦條件。不幸的是，我們在夏初看到的該國多個地區比正常炎熱的天氣未能延續到2024 年季度後半段，限制了國內現貨銷售機會，並導致我們一些合約較高的產品發貨。再加上出口定價，使我們無法進入市場，導致我們 2024 年季度的銷售低於預期。

During the 2024 quarter, our coal segment operating team focused on improving the safe operation of our facilities, providing reliable service to our customers managing through difficult operating conditions and adjusting production lower to meet demand.

2024年季度，我們的煤炭部門營運團隊專注於改善設施的安全運營，為客戶提供可靠的服務，應對困難的營運條件，並調整產量以滿足需求。

During the quarter, we advanced major capital and infrastructure projects at our Tunnel Ridge, Hamilton, Warrior and River View complexes, as part of our stated long-term commitment to our customers and our operations. These investments will make our operations more productive, improve their future cost structure beginning in early 2025, and extend their mine lives, allowing us to remain the most reliable, low-cost producer in our operating regions for many years to come.

本季度，我們推進了 Tunnel Ridge、Hamilton、Warrior 和 River View 綜合體的主要資本和基礎設施項目，作為我們對客戶和營運的長期承諾的一部分。這些投資將使我們的營運更加高效，從 2025 年初開始改善未來的成本結構，並延長礦山壽命，使我們能夠在未來許多年中繼續成為我們營運地區最可靠、成本最低的生產商。

The overall mild summer that followed a mild winter last year continues to impact prompt coal demand. However, looking at the intermediate and longer term, the underlying coal demand fundamentals of non-traditional demand growth from data centers, AI and onshoring of manufacturing capacity are accelerating, particularly in the markets we serve in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast United States.

去年溫和的冬季之後，整體溫和的夏季繼續影響煤炭需求。然而，從中長期來看，資料中心、人工智慧和製造能力外包等非傳統需求成長的煤炭需求基本面正在加速，特別是在我們服務的中西部、大西洋中部和東南部市場美國。

On October 16, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission hosted a major conference focused on electric reliability. Participants discussed the urgent need to preserve baseload generation to meet the growing demand for electricity. Recent integrated resource plans filed by utilities also support the view that power demand will exceed generating supply, increasing dangers to grid reliability.

10 月 16 日，聯邦能源管理委員會主辦了一次重點討論電力可靠性的重要會議。與會者討論了保持基本負載發電以滿足不斷增長的電力需求的迫切需求。公用事業公司最近提交的綜合資源計畫也支持這樣的觀點：電力需求將超過發電供應，增加電網可靠性的危險。

The harsh reality is that the push to electrify many aspects of our economy, coupled with accelerating computation and storage speed demand requires more generation capacity than our current renewables-based energy policy can provide. The sources of this new demand require 24/7 reliability, which we believe only fossil fuel and nuclear generation sources can provide.

嚴酷的現實是，推動我們經濟的許多方面實現電氣化，再加上不斷加快的運算和儲存速度需求，需要比我們目前基於再生能源的能源政策所能提供的更多的發電能力。這種新需求的來源需要 24/7 的可靠性，我們相信只有化石燃料和核能發電來源才能提供。

A recent report by McCluskey echoes this, calling for a doubling of data center electric demand from 17 gigawatts to 2020 -- in 2022 to 35 gigawatts by the end of the decade, which they estimate represent 74 million tons of incremental utility coal burn during that time period and additional 170 -- excuse me, 179 million tons across the next decade.

McCluskey 最近的一份報告呼應了這一點，呼籲到2020 年將資料中心電力需求從17 吉瓦增加一倍，到2022 年到本十年末增加到35 吉瓦，他們估計這意味著在此期間將增加7,400 萬噸公用事業煤炭燃燒量在此期間，還有另外 170 噸——對不起，未來十年將增加 1.79 億噸。

They plus other third-party sources also importantly point out that over 40% of previously announced nationwide coal plant retirements have pushed back their planned closure dates, some indefinitely, while new announcements of coal unit retirements have virtually stopped.

他們和其他第三方消息來源還重要指出，超過 40% 之前宣布的全國範圍內燃煤電廠退役已經推遲了計劃關閉日期，有些是無限期地推遲，而新的燃煤機組退役公告幾乎已經停止。

The chronic underinvestment in fossil fuel and nuclear generation became readily visible in the results of the recent PJM capacity auction. Capacity payments, which are the market signal mechanism used to incentivize the construction of new generation sources, increased almost tenfold. This is a clear market signal that our power grid continues to become more unreliable in a time of rising demand forecast. This situation is not limited to PJM but extends to all regions we market to, and we believe it will continue.

最近 PJM 產能拍賣的結果清楚地表明了化石燃料和核電發電長期投資不足的情況。容量付費是用於激勵新一代電源建設的市場訊號機制，成長了近十倍。這是一個明確的市場訊號，表明在需求預測不斷上升的時期，我們的電網繼續變得更加不可靠。這種情況不僅限於 PJM，而是擴展到我們行銷的所有地區，我們相信這種情況將持續下去。

Many of our largest customers have been in the market recently with solicitations for significant tonnage to serve their plants in 2025 and beyond, with some looking for volume commitments through 2030. As our customers look to fulfill their long-term and short-term coal needs, we will leverage our well-capitalized operations and history of reliability to maintain and opportunistically grow our market share in the coming months.

我們的許多最大客戶最近都在市場上徵求大量噸位，以便在 2025 年及以後為他們的工廠提供服務，其中一些客戶尋求到 2030 年的批量承諾。由於我們的客戶希望滿足他們的長期和短期煤炭需求，我們將利用我們資本充足的營運和可靠的歷史記錄，在未來幾個月內維持並伺機擴大我們的市場份額。

Before I wrap up, I would like to highlight a few points related to our Oil & Gas Royalties business. As Cary mentioned, we realized another solid quarter of year-over-year volumetric growth. We continue to reap the benefits of a minerals portfolio that is heavily weighted towards the Permian Basin, where top-tier upstream operators are actively drilling and completing new wells on our minerals. Additionally, we continue to enhance our position in the Permian, successfully closing $10.5 million of ground game acquisitions during the 2024 quarter.

在結束之前，我想強調與我們的石油和天然氣特許權業務相關的幾點。正如卡里所提到的，我們實現了又一個穩定的季度同比銷售增長。我們繼續從二疊紀盆地的礦產組合中獲益，頂級上游營運商正在積極鑽探和完成我們礦產的新井。此外，我們繼續增強在二疊紀盆地的地位，在 2024 年季度成功完成了 1,050 萬美元的地面遊戲收購。

As we previously mentioned, the value and prospects for our Oil & Gas Royalties segment was a major contributor to the successful completion of our June 2024 Senior Notes offering. We remain committed to growing this segment as a complement to our coal -- excuse me, to our core coal operations. And as we scale the business, we believe investors will continue to recognize the intrinsic value the segment possesses as a growth vehicle.

正如我們之前提到的，我們的石油和天然氣特許權使用費部門的價值和前景是我們成功完成 2024 年 6 月優先票據發行的主要因素。我們仍然致力於發展這一領域，作為我們煤炭業務的補充——對不起，是我們核心煤炭業務的補充。隨著我們擴大業務規模，我們相信投資者將繼續認識到該細分市場作為成長工具所具有的內在價值。

In closing, while our 2024 quarter results reflect a difficult market and operating conditions, I will repeat what I said on our last quarterly call. We believe the fundamentals for electricity demand over the next five years and beyond are poised for rapid growth. We also believe reliable, affordable baseload generation is a cornerstone of our nation's economy. With our well-capitalized and strategically located coal mines and growing minerals acreage portfolio, we are well positioned to benefit from the anticipated increased demand for many years to come.

最後，雖然我們的 2024 年季度業績反映了困難的市場和營運狀況，但我將重複我在上一季電話會議上所說的話。我們相信未來五年及以後電力需求的基本面將快速成長。我們也相信，可靠、負擔得起的基本負載發電是我們國家經濟的基石。憑藉我們資本雄厚、地理位置優越的煤礦以及不斷增長的礦產面積組合，我們處於有利位置，可以從未來許多年預期增長的需求中受益。

That concludes our prepared comments, and I will now ask the operator to open the call for questions. Operator?

我們準備好的評論到此結束，我現在請接線生開始提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Nathan Martin, The Benchmark Company.

內森馬丁，基準公司。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, Joe. Cary, you gave some updates on the full year guidance ranges. Maybe starting on the shipment front. I believe you said the expectation is now to be towards the lower end of that range. Clearly, what transpired with the mild summer low gas prices likely caused your 3Q shouldn't be a little bit shorter than you planned, as Joe mentioned. But thinking about the export side, right, so prompt API2, I think, was around $115 for the third quarter. It's close to $120 today, which I think is kind of your target level. Are there any opportunities for you guys to ramp up export sales in the fourth quarter? And could that determine ultimately where you end in that full year shipment range?

謝謝，接線生。早安，喬。卡里，您提供了有關全年指導範圍的一些更新。也許從裝運方面開始。我相信你說過現在的預期是接近該範圍的下限。顯然，正如喬所提到的那樣，夏季溫和的低油價可能導致您的第三季不應該比您的計劃短一點。但考慮到出口方面，我認為第三季的 API2 約為 115 美元。今天接近 120 美元，我認為這是您的目標水平。第四季你們有機會增加出口銷售嗎？這能否最終決定全年出貨量範圍的最終結果？

Yeah. I mean I do think that is fair that we do have opportunities in the fourth quarter to be able to anticipate in the export market. We have been in active discussions with our partners on the export market to commit to volumes some in the fourth quarter, and we are obviously having discussions as we move into the new year, given where the pricing range is right now. The discounts are still a little bit higher than what we have typically seen in terms of participating in the export market, but certainly with where the API2 pricing is today, you're certainly getting within that range, particularly for our lower sulfur Gibson product to be able to have some conversations to where we can participate in that export market in the fourth quarter and into the new year as well.

是的。我的意思是，我確實認為這是公平的，因為我們確實有機會在第四季度預測出口市場。我們一直在與出口市場的合作夥伴進行積極討論，承諾在第四季度實現部分銷量，考慮到目前的定價範圍，我們顯然在進入新的一年時正在進行討論。就參與出口市場而言，折扣仍然比我們通常看到的要高一些，但肯定的是，按照目前的 API2 定價，您肯定會在這個範圍內，特別是對於我們的低硫吉布森產品來說我們能夠就第四季度和新年期間我們可以在哪裡參與該出口市場進行一些對話。

Joe, I don't know if you'd like to add to that as well?

喬，我不知道你是否也想補充？

Yeah. The only other thing that I would add is that we do have one customer that of contracted tons that declared force majeure in the third quarter, and we're trying to determine whether that will be lifted or not. I think that we'll not forgive the tons that it may impact the timing of the tons. So even if we do pick up some volume, it could be offset by timing from this one customer that's declared a force majeure for some operations difficulties that they have, that they use our product as a blend into their shipments. So I think that -- our midpoint is still 34. We'd love to get to that right at this 10 seconds. I think it's a little bit less than that, but there is that potential just based on how the market times out.

是的。我要補充的唯一一件事是，我們確實有一個合約噸客戶在第三季宣布了不可抗力，我們正在努力確定是否會解除這一情況。我認為我們不會原諒這可能會影響噸的時間。因此，即使我們確實增加了一些銷量，也可能會被一位客戶的時間所抵消，該客戶因某些營運困難而被宣佈為不可抗力，他們將我們的產品混合到他們的發貨中。所以我認為——我們的中點仍然是 34。我們很樂意在這 10 秒內解決這個問題。我認為它比這個要少一點，但是僅僅基於市場如何超時就存在這種潛力。

Okay. And then maybe just related on the inventory front. What amount of inventory drawdown? I was kind of assumed in getting to that range. So I think, Cary, you mentioned you wanted to get down to 0.5 million to 1 million tons by year-end. Where are you today?

好的。然後可能只是與庫存方面有關。庫存減少量是多少？我有點假設達到這個範圍。所以我想，卡里，你提到你想在年底前將產量減少到 50 萬噸到 100 萬噸。今天你在哪裡？

Today, at quarter end, we were right at 2 million tons at quarter end. So as we look into the fourth quarter, we do anticipate that inventory level coming down to being within that range here within the fourth quarter.

今天，在季度末，我們的季度末產量正好達到 200 萬噸。因此，當我們展望第四季時，我們確實預期庫存水準將在第四季度內降至該範圍內。

Got it. And then maybe on the cost side, as you guys talked about Appalachia costs well above the high end of full year guidance, I think that's second quarter in a row, right? So longwall move, challenging mining conditions at all three operations. It looks like Appalachia costs, in particular, will need to improve kind of meaningfully in the fourth quarter if we want to get within your full year guidance of $57 million to $60 million for that segment. I care you said, I think overall, I've been assuming that overall company costs will be at the higher end of the range. Is there any risk to not hitting that range? Are you through those challenging mining conditions? Any other color there would be great.

知道了。然後也許在成本方面，正如你們談到的阿巴拉契亞成本遠高於全年指引的高端，我認為這是連續第二個季度，對吧？如此長壁移動，對所有三個作業的採礦條件都充滿挑戰。如果我們想要達到該細分市場 5,700 萬至 6,000 萬美元的全年指導，那麼阿巴拉契亞的成本尤其需要在第四季大幅改善。我關心你說的，我認為總體而言，我一直假設公司的總體成本將處於該範圍的較高端。不達到該範圍是否有風險？您是否經歷過那些具有挑戰性的採礦條件？任何其他顏色都會很棒。

Yeah. I do think as you look at the range, when I made the comment of being towards the higher end of the range, that was specifically meant to be in total for the cost. So when you combine both Illinois Basin and Appalachia regions. Illinois Basin costs have been pretty fairly consistent, it's within that range. The Appalachia costs, as you pointed out, is on the higher end of the range. So it could very well be as we move into the fourth quarter, as you mentioned, it could be a little challenging to get to the upper end of that range just as it relates to Appalachia. So we could have Appalachia fall outside the range for the total year.

是的。我確實認為，當您查看該範圍時，當我評論該範圍的高端時，這是專門針對成本總計的。因此，當您將伊利諾伊盆地和阿巴拉契亞地區結合起來時。伊利諾伊州盆地的成本一直相當穩定，在這個範圍內。正如您所指出的，阿巴拉契亞的成本處於該範圍的較高端。因此，正如您所提到的，當我們進入第四季度時，達到該範圍的上限可能會有點困難，就像與阿巴拉契亞有關的那樣。因此，阿巴拉契亞可能會超出全年的範圍。

But we do think within the range toward the upper end when you combine them both, makes sense. As it relates to conditions through October, we have started to see some improvement towards the end of October, particularly at Tunnel Ridge in terms of those conditions. So we do anticipate it being improving in November and December. Still, you're going to see levels that our anticipation is it should come down slightly within the Appalachia region within the fourth quarter, but that will be what impacts the numbers overall. But to your point on -- have we started to see improvements? Yes, we have started to see improvements as we move into November.

但我們確實認為，當你將兩者結合起來時，在接近上限的範圍內是有道理的。由於這與整個 10 月的情況有關，我們在 10 月底開始看到一些改善，特別是在隧道嶺的這些情況方面。因此，我們確實預計 11 月和 12 月情況會有所改善。儘管如此，您仍會看到我們預期阿巴拉契亞地區第四季度的數據水平會略有下降，但這將影響整體數字。但就你的觀點而言──我們是否開始看到改進？是的，隨著進入 11 月，我們已經開始看到改進。

Got it. I appreciate that. And maybe just one last question. As we look out to 2025, it looks like you guys added 5.9 million tons of (inaudible) priced -- committing price 5.9 million tons since last quarter, 5.5 tons million of that domestic -- looks like 400,000 export. Can you give us an idea on the pricing for those tons?

知道了。我很欣賞這一點。也許只是最後一個問題。當我們展望 2025 年時，看起來你們增加了 590 萬噸（聽不清）價格——自上季度以來承諾價格 590 萬噸，其中 55 萬噸是國內——看起來有 40 萬噸出口。您能給我們了解一下這些噸的定價嗎？

I think when you look at '25, I would just say that we are targeted to have sales -- our goal is to have sales back at the $35 million back to the -- $30 million domestic, $5 million export. Right now or -- if you look at this year, if we would hit what our goal would be, we would be basically -- we would need another 1 million tons of market next year on the domestic side.

我想當你看看 25 年時，我只想說我們的目標是實現銷售——我們的目標是將銷售額恢復到 3500 萬美元——國內 3000 萬美元，出口 500 萬美元。現在或 - 如果你看看今年，如果我們能夠實現我們的目標，我們基本上 - 明年我們將需要另外 100 萬噸的國內市場。

When we look at the cost savings that Cary talked about relative to various projects and I also mentioned, and then we look at the revenue just in total that we think we can maintain margins. So our target is 30%. So we believe we should be able to achieve that this year. And then going forward, we're -- our goal and expectations will be at that same 30% margin. So we will see some reduction in average sales price, but will also see corresponding savings on the cost side -- that -- our expectation is still a little early because we don't have all the sales contracts completed.

當我們查看卡里談到的相對於各個項目的成本節省時，我也提到過，然後我們查看我們認為可以維持利潤率的總收入。所以我們的目標是30%。因此，我們相信今年我們應該能夠實現這一目標。展望未來，我們的目標和期望將維持相同的 30% 利潤率。因此，我們將看到平均銷售價格下降，但也會看到成本方面相應的節省——我們的預期仍然有點早，因為我們還沒有完成所有銷售合約。

So I don't really want to get into actual pricing on ranges because we're still in negotiations with folks, but we do anticipate that our margins will be at that 30% level in the coal segment next year as well as this year. And hopefully, we'll have an extra million tons of sales next year.

因此，我真的不想討論實際定價範圍，因為我們仍在與人們進行談判，但我們確實預計明年和今年煤炭領域的利潤率將達到 30% 的水平。希望明年我們的銷售量能增加 100 萬噸。

Appreciate that, Joe. Thank you both for your time and best of luck here in the fourth quarter.

很欣賞這一點，喬。感謝你們抽出寶貴的時間，祝福第四季一切順利。

Mark Reichman, Noble Capital Markets.

馬克‧賴克曼（Mark Reichman），諾布爾資本市場。

Just focusing on Appalachia for a moment. Roof control and maintenance expenses were initiated in the second and third quarters and in the second quarter of 2023 when there was a roof fall in July of 2023. So what steps is the partnership taking to cure this issue? And then what factors will have the biggest impact on improving Appalachia segment adjusted EBITDA expense going forward?

暫時關注阿巴拉契亞。屋頂控制和維護費用於第二季和第三季以及 2023 年第二季啟動，當時 2023 年 7 月發生了屋頂墜落事件。那麼，合作夥伴正在採取哪些措施來解決這個問題呢？那麼哪些因素將對改善阿巴拉契亞地區調整後 EBITDA 費用產生最大影響？

The impact is -- in the large part has been geologic. So as we look to the future mine plans, as we indicated with the Tunnel Ridge longwall move in the first part of next year, right in the beginning of January, we're getting into a new district, new reserve area that is going to be better conditions than what we experienced. I mean, Tunnel Ridge has been a very consistent mine for us ever since we've opened it.

影響在很大程度上是地質方面的。因此，當我們展望未來的採礦計劃時，正如我們在明年上半年（即一月初）對 Tunnel Ridge 長壁移動所表示的那樣，我們正在進入一個新的區域、新的保護區，該區域將比我們所經歷的條件較好。我的意思是，自從我們打開隧道嶺以來，它一直是我們的一個非常穩定的礦場。

Unfortunately, this last panel that we have in this district has been the worst conditions we've seen. And fortunately, we're moving out of this district and into the new district that we've already planned or we are in the process of developing. And so we know the conditions are going to be better there than they have been on this panel that we're currently in.

不幸的是，我們在這個地區擁有的最後一個小組是我們所見過的最糟糕的情況。幸運的是，我們正在搬出這個地區，進入我們已經規劃或正在開發的新地區。因此，我們知道那裡的條件會比我們目前所在的小組中的條件更好。

And as we look at Mettiki, we've got a similar situation. We knew that the longwall panel that we were in this particular quarter or this past quarter, had some challenging geology and we don't anticipate to have the same situation in the next panel as we had in the one that we are currently in. So I think those are two observations that give us hope that our costs will improve next year at both Mettiki and Tunnel Ridge.

當我們觀察 Mettiki 時，我們也遇到了類似的情況。我們知道，我們在這個特定季度或上個季度的長壁面板具有一些具有挑戰性的地質情況，我們預計下一個面板中不會出現與我們目前所處的情況相同的情況。因此，我認為這兩個觀察結果給了我們希望，明年 Mettiki 和 Tunnel Ridge 的成本都會有所改善。

MC is just tough. It's a thin seam. It's just -- it's really driven more by the fact that it is such a thin seam. And in order to mine that seam, we do have higher recoveries or lower recoveries just because of the amount of overburn we have to take to cut that coal seam. So there's not much we can do there. The geology is what it is. But we do believe that both at Mettiki and Tunnel Ridge, brighter days are ahead starting next year.

MC真的很難。這是一條細縫。只是——它實際上更多地是由它如此薄的接縫這一事實驅動的。為了開採該煤層，我們確實有較高的回收率或較低的回收率，只是因為我們必須採取大量的超燃來切割該煤層。所以我們在那裡無能為力。地質學就是這樣。但我們確實相信，無論是 Mettiki 還是 Tunnel Ridge，從明年開始，光明的日子就在前方。

And then Alliance experienced an equity method investment loss of $2.3 million in the third quarter. And I was just kind of curious what your expectations are for that line item going forward? And does it cause you to rethink any of your investments?

然後Alliance在第三季經歷了權益法投資損失230萬美元。我只是有點好奇您對該訂單項目未來的期望是什麼？這是否會讓您重新考慮您的投資？

I think as it relates to the number going forward, we don't anticipate any of those on a going-forward basis. It was related to one of the investments that we've made, historically were related to the EV charging side of it, our Francis Energy investment, was related to some adjustments we made for that particular investment we made where we mark-to-market on that.

我認為，由於它與未來的數字有關，因此我們預計未來不會出現任何此類情況。這與我們所做的一項投資有關，歷史上與電動車充電方面有關，我們的弗朗西斯能源投資，與我們針對我們按市值計價的特定投資所做的一些調整有關關於這一點。

And just one last question. Considering the pending merger between Arch and consol, do you think there are any more consolidation opportunities within the US coal industry? And then what is your outlook for the US versus the international market?

還有最後一個問題。考慮到 Arch 和 consol 即將合併，您認為美國煤炭產業還有更多整合機會嗎？那麼您對美國市場和國際市場的前景有何看法？

Don't know that there will be any other major consolidation. I don't anticipate any myself. I think that as the impact of that on the markets. I don't believe it will have any impact on the domestic market. It may, in fact, improve the domestic market opportunity for others because I think with that merger, there will be some efficiencies that may enhance their export opportunities and that could mean that they would ship more export than they are domestic, but I don't -- they're going to have to speak to that. But as far as impacts to us, we see no impact relative to that merger impacting our current market competitiveness.

不知道還會有其他重大整合。我自己並不期待任何事。我認為這是對市場的影響。我認為這不會對國內市場產生任何影響。事實上，這可能會改善其他人的國內市場機會，因為我認為透過這次合併，將會提高一些效率，可能會增強他們的出口機會，這可能意味著他們的出口量將超過國內市場，但我不這麼認為。但就對我們的影響而言，我們認為此次合併不會對我們目前的市場競爭力產生影響。

Well, thank you very much. This is very helpful.

嗯，非常感謝。這非常有幫助。

Thank you. Mark.

謝謝。標記。

David Marsh, Singular Research.

大衛馬什，奇異研究。

Hi. Thanks guys for taking the questions. First, I just wanted to touch on the crypto briefly, if we could. Since the halving is behind us, could you give us an update on your cost to mine Bitcoin? And are you continuing to do that?

你好。感謝大家提出問題。首先，如果可以的話，我只想簡單地談談加密貨幣。由於減半已經過去，您能否向我們介紹一下您開採比特幣的成本的最新情況？你會繼續這樣做嗎？

We are continuing to mine Bitcoin. At quarter end, we don't really provide too much guidance as it relates to the cost side of that. But as we look at quarter end, total holdings of Bitcoin was a little bit over 457 coins, which at quarter end price was $63,330. It was 29 million in total of coins that we owned at the end of the quarter. It's a net addition of about five coins for us over the quarter. As we mentioned in previous quarters talking about those operations, we do sell on a monthly basis to cover our operating costs. So that is a net addition of, as I mentioned, five coins during the quarter.

我們正在繼續開採比特幣。在季度末，我們實際上並沒有提供太多指導，因為它與成本方面有關。但當我們觀察季度末時，比特幣的總持股略高於 457 個比特幣，季度末價格為 63,330 美元。截至本季末，我們總共擁有 2,900 萬枚代幣。本季我們淨增加了大約 5 個硬幣。正如我們在前幾個季度討論這些業務時所提到的，我們確實每月進行銷售以支付我們的營運成本。正如我所提到的，這就是本季淨增加的 5 個代幣。

During the quarter, we did buy some miners and retire some of our older miners. So about one-third of the fleet, and we think that will improve our efficiency going forward to where we should be in a position to end up realizing or retaining the higher bit coins on a quarterly basis and what we've done most recently.

在本季度，我們確實購買了一些礦機並淘汰了一些舊礦機。大約三分之一的艦隊，我們認為這將提高我們的效率，我們應該能夠最終實現每季實現或保留更高比特幣以及我們最近所做的事情。

Okay. That's good. And then just kind of a bigger picture question. With the election in front of us, and obviously, it's tough to predict where things end up, but if we were to have an election result that was kind of blue-heavy, if you will, what do you see on the legislative landscape that could be potentially adverse to the company? And what do you think that the timing would be of enacting any type of legislation that would be harmful to the company and the industry overall?

好的。那挺好的。然後是一個更大的問題。選舉就在我們面前，顯然，很難預測事情的結果，但如果我們的選舉結果是偏藍的，如果你願意的話，你會在立法環境中看到什麼？您認為頒布任何對公司和整個產業有害的立法的時機是什麼？

I think we're in a unique situation with the growth of AI, which is a national security issue and the primary investors in that space, the hyperscalers all historically leaning doors wanting their power generated by renewables as opposed to base load generation, generating by fossil fuels. So we are seeing that growth significantly right now. They want to grow right now '25, '26, '27, '28 and then into the future that the growth numbers are pretty staggering.

我認為，隨著人工智慧的發展，我們處於一個獨特的境地，這是一個國家安全問題，也是該領域的主要投資者，超大規模企業歷來都傾向於透過再生能源發電，而不是基本負載發電，透過再生能源發電，透過再生能源發電。所以我們現在看到這種成長顯著。他們希望在 25 年、26 年、27 年、28 年實現成長，然後在未來成長數字將相當驚人。

So when you look at those growth numbers, as I mentioned, the FERC conference that they had just recently, they are emphasizing the need to maintain what we have and continue to warn that we will be short capacity because of delays in replacing and/or even meeting the demand of AI. So I think the economic aspect, the national security aspect will limit any adverse legislation to try to restrict any type of generation just because of the demand that's going to be expected and advocated for by the hyperscalers.

因此，當你看到這些成長數字時，正如我所提到的，他們最近剛舉行的FERC 會議，他們強調需要維持我們現有的能力，並繼續警告說，由於更換和/或更換的延遲，我們將出現產能短缺。因此，我認為經濟方面、國家安全方面將限制任何不利的立法，以試圖限制任何類型的發電，僅僅是因為超大規模企業預期和倡導的需求。

And when you look at that growth, almost a lot of it's in the Washington, D.C. area, and it's being instigated by the Department of Defense and other aspects of government, and that's one reason why you see that growth in PJM and in the Washington, D.C. area. So I don't anticipate any adverse legislation.

當你看到這種成長時，幾乎大部分都在華盛頓特區，並且是由國防部和政府其他方面推動的，這就是你看到 PJM 和華盛頓地區成長的原因之一，華盛頓特區。所以我預計不會有任何不利的立法。

Now the regulatory environment, we'll continue to have debates on what the timing of transition is. We've been very clear repeatedly that the transition that the Harris-Biden administration has been pushing is way too fast. It's in total conflict with their goal to try to electrify America. So there will be reality that comes to bear there.

現在的監管環境，我們將繼續就過渡的時機進行辯論。我們一再明確表示，哈里斯-拜登政府一直在推動的過渡太快了。這與他們試圖使美國電氣化的目標完全衝突。因此，那裡將會有現實發生。

I think also, as those regulations that are already being advocated for political reason, in my opinion, not environmental reasons that as those make their ways through the court, we don't believe they'll -- we believe they will be overturned. So I think the reality of what the demand picture is to maintain power, reliable, low-cost power is going to mitigate or potentially negate any political desires to advance the premature closing of coal-fired generation.

我還認為，在我看來，這些法規是出於政治原因而不是環境原因而被提倡的，當這些法規通過法院時，我們不相信它們會——我們相信它們會被推翻。因此，我認為維持電力、可靠、低成本電力的需求情況的現實將減輕或可能消除任何推動提前關閉燃煤發電的政治願望。

So elections matter, for a lot of other reasons, I will be glad to get into that, but probably something appropriate time for me to share what my view is. I think most people have heard that in the past. But I think back to -- if it goes the other way, how impactful could it be? I still believe that we're in great shape. People are going to need our generation.

因此，選舉很重要，出於許多其他原因，我很高興參與其中，但可能是我分享我的觀點的適當時機。我想大多數人過去都聽過這句話。但我回想一下，如果情況相反，會有多大影響？我仍然相信我們的狀態很好。人們將需要我們這一代。

One of our largest customers just came out with their IRP in October, and they said that they're expecting low growth by 2032 anywhere from 30% to 45% compared to 2024. And they backed off of closing plants that were in their last IRP in 2022, recognizing that they're going to need those plants to 2035 to 2040 something. And we're hearing that consistently by our domestic customers. So it would be nice if our energy policy would track our domestic policy for onshoring for growth in electrification. So it'd be nice that was clear to the markets.

我們最大的客戶之一剛剛在 10 月公佈了他們的 IRP，他們表示預計到 2032 年，與 2024 年相比，成長率將在 30% 到 45% 之間。他們意識到他們將在 2035 年至 2040 年左右需要這些工廠，因此放棄了關閉 2022 年最後一個 IRP 中的工廠。我們的國內客戶不斷聽到這樣的說法。因此，如果我們的能源政策能夠追蹤我們的國內電氣化成長政策，那就太好了。因此，如果市場能夠清楚地了解那就太好了。

But like I said, even if there is political motivation to continue down a path that is cross currents or cross purpose of that objective, I think that the demand for the AI is going to actually rule -- the science is going to rule over the politics. That's my view.

但就像我說的，即使有政治動機繼續走一條與該目標相悖或不同目的的道路，我認為對人工智慧的需求實際上將佔據主導地位——科學將主導政治。這是我的觀點。

Very helpful. Thank you very much. Appreciate.

非常有幫助。非常感謝。欣賞。

Dave Storms, Stonegate.

戴夫·斯托姆斯，石門。

Good morning. Just hoping we could start with outside purchases were a little bit above expectations. Is that just lingering challenges? Or how should we think about that going forward?

早安.只是希望我們可以從外部購買開始，這有點超出預期。這只是揮之不去的挑戰嗎？或者我們該如何思考未來的發展？

I think going forward, for the quarter, I think you're referring to -- we came in outside purchases, we were about $8.2 million for the quarter. As we've talked in the past, we do purchase some blend coal at our Mettiki operation for our metallurgical exports, and so that's what those purchases are related to. That is a little bit higher than where I would anticipate the fourth quarter number to come in. We do anticipate continuing to purchase some coal in the fourth quarter. I think in the past, it's ranged anywhere from 2 million to 2.5 million per month -- $2 million to $2.5 million per month of purchased coal. I would imagine somewhere within that range is a good estimate in terms of where we would anticipate the fourth quarter number to come in this year.

我認為展望未來，對於本季度，我想你指的是——我們進行了外部採購，本季我們的採購額約為 820 萬美元。正如我們過去所說，我們確實在 Mettiki 工廠購買了一些混合煤用於冶金出口，所以這就是這些採購的相關內容。這比我預計的第四季數字要高一些。我們確實預計第四季將繼續購買一些煤炭。我認為過去，每月購買煤炭的金額為 200 萬至 250 萬美元，即 200 萬至 250 萬美元。我想，就我們預計今年第四季的數字而言，這個範圍內的某個位置是一個很好的估計。

Perfect. And then just looking forward to the contract negotiations and increased order book. How would you classify some of that order book pickup? Is that new customers coming into the fold? Or is that current customers increasing their demand?

完美的。然後只是期待合約談判和增加訂單。您如何將部分訂單取貨分類？有新客戶加入嗎？或者當前客戶的需求是否在增加？

It's current customers basically fulfilling their book for contracts that are expiring. So we're, in most cases, maintaining market share with those customers. In some cases, we're actually increasing our market share. But in most cases, they're just maintaining their purchasing with some optionality to increase volume in anticipation of this growing demand that they see that's going to -- that they anticipate will occur starting in 2026. So there's some optionality to the upside for increased demand on their part.

目前的客戶基本上已經履行了即將到期的合約。因此，在大多數情況下，我們會維持這些客戶的市場佔有率。在某些情況下，我們實際上正在增​​加我們的市場份額。但在大多數情況下，他們只是維持採購，並有一些增加數量的選擇，以應對他們預計從 2026 年開始出現的需求成長。因此，他們有一些選擇餘地來應對需求的增加。

But when we're looking at the $30 million commitment we just maintaining or anticipating and maintaining of the market share we've had with existing customers. So there is potentially some upside to that. But our primary planning horizon is to be consistent of a 35 million ton production rate, 5 million export, 30 million domestic.

但當我們考慮 3000 萬美元的承諾時，我們只是維持或預期並維持我們與現有客戶的市場份額。所以這可能有一些好處。但我們的首要規劃範圍是維持3500萬噸的產量，500萬噸出口，3000萬噸國內。

Understood. And then just one more for me. You need $10.5 million oil and gas closing. I understand that's in the Permian. Is there anything else you can tell us about this acquisition? Was it just opportunistic? Maybe how it all came together. Anything like that?

明白了。然後再給我一個。您需要價值 1050 萬美元的石油和天然氣交易。我知道那是在二疊紀。關於此次收購您還有什麼可以告訴我們的嗎？這只是機會主義嗎？也許這一切是如何結合在一起的。有這樣的事嗎？

So it -- these are several small transactions. So we have what we call a ground game where we contracted land -- with land men that are going out and buying individual tracks that just add to our portfolio. So we allocated around $25 million a year for that program. So I would not say it's opportunistic. I'd say that we have underwriting standards.

所以這是幾筆小交易。所以我們有所謂的地面遊戲，我們承包了土地——土地人員出去購買單獨的賽道，這只是增加了我們的投資組合。因此，我們每年為該計劃撥款約 2500 萬美元。所以我不會說這是機會主義的。我想說我們有承保標準。

And if there are people that would like to sell their mineral position then we will make offers at economics that are pretty much consistent to what the market is, but definitely consistent with what our normal underwriting standards are to get attractive returns. So we do anticipate that there will be opportunities for us on a year in, year out basis in that range.And we feel that that we can't execute on that based on the the normal activity in the marketplace where there's, you know, sellers that are trying to look to monetize their assets for whatever reason.

如果有人想出售他們的礦產頭寸，那麼我們將提供與市場基本一致的經濟報價，但絕對符合我們正常的承保標準以獲得有吸引力的回報。因此，我們確實預計，在這個範圍內，我們年復一年都會有機會。 而且我們認為，我們無法根據市場上的正常活動來執行這一目標，你知道，無論出於何種原因，試圖將其資產貨幣化的賣家。

Understood. Thank you for taking my questions and good luck in the fourth quarter.

明白了。感謝您回答我的問題，祝第四季好運。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yves Siegel, Siegel Asset Management.

伊夫‧西格爾，西格爾資產管理公司。

Can you just update more broadly your thinking on capital allocation? And then also within that context, how you're thinking about the new ventures investments going forward?

您能否更廣泛地更新您對資本配置的想法？然後，也在這種背景下，您如何考慮未來的新創投？

Yeah. So I think from a capital allocation standpoint, we've indicated that first priority will be maintaining our coal operations. So we've done that over the last two to three years with the major projects that we've talked about in addition to their normal maintenance. So starting in '25, we expect that the capital for -- maintenance capital or the actual capital expenditures and our cooperations will decrease to a level, Cary?

是的。因此，我認為從資本配置的角度來看，我們已經表示首要任務將是維持我們的煤炭業務。因此，在過去的兩到三年裡，除了正常維護之外，我們還對我們所討論的主要項目進行了這項工作。因此，從 25 年開始，我們預計維護資本或實際資本支出以及我們的合作的資本將減少到一定水平，卡里？

Somewhere in the neighborhood of $6.75 to $7.75 per ton produced is kind of what the current thinking is right now, somewhere within that range.

目前的想法是在每噸 6.75 至 7.75 美元附近，在這個範圍內。

So that's a decrease of $100 million from what?

那麼減少了 1 億美元，是因為什麼？

In terms of total capital.

從總資本來看。

Yes, this year.

是的，今年。

That's right.

這是正確的。

So then the next allocation goes to our Minerals Group, which we taken a position historically that whatever cash flow they generate that they could reinvest within the Minerals Group. And then the third would be for other type investments that could include what we're doing at our matrix subsidiary that we've discussed in the past that most of their growth is organic in nature, but it does take some working capital.

因此，下一個分配將分配給我們的礦產集團，我們歷史上的立場是，無論他們產生什麼現金流，他們都可以在礦產集團內進行再投資。第三個是其他類型的投資，其中可能包括我們在矩陣子公司所做的事情，我們過去已經討論過，它們的大部分增長本質上是有機的，但它確實需要一些營運資金。

And then as far as looking at participating in the transition, we've continued to be active in that area to evaluate the landscape. And as you know, we've made some investments in battery recycling with Ascend. We've made investments with Infinitum on their innovative motor design. We've got the joint development agreement with Infinitum that's going well. We expect to see some benefit in that in '25 and '26 for sure.

然後，就參與轉型而言，我們繼續積極參與該領域的工作，以評估情況。如您所知，我們與奧升德一起在電池回收方面進行了一些投資。我們對 Infinitum 的創新馬達設計進行了投資。我們與 Infinitum 達成了聯合開發協議，進展順利。我們預計在 25 和 26 年肯定會看到一些好處。

As we think through the rest of the transition, I think the election may matter. So we're trying to wait and see what happens. If the current incentives stay in place and investor -- excuse me, if customers demand more EVs, et cetera, trying to understand what the demand for batteries are. We're continuing to look in the battery space, whether it's recycling or battery storage. But we're waiting to see what happens with the election and Trump wins. There's been some indication he'll look at some of the tax credits and the Inflation Reduction Act.

當我們思考過渡的其餘部分時，我認為選舉可能很重要。所以我們正在嘗試等待，看看會發生什麼。如果當前的激勵措施保持不變，投資者——對不起，如果客戶需要更多的電動車等，試圖了解電池的需求是什麼。我們正在繼續關注電池領域，無論是回收還是電池儲存。但我們正在等待選舉和川普獲勝後會發生什麼。有跡象表明他將考慮一些稅收抵免和通貨膨脹削減法案。

So I think the investment in that space is all trying to anticipate what the policy of the new administration is going to be before they take any major steps in making investments. So we're still very interested in looking at opportunities. We're very focused on trying to continue to grow year after year. And we do believe because of our relationships with our utilities, because of our knowledge in the space and our strategic location and the human resources we have, to participate in that space that there are opportunities for us to invest and add value to our shareholders over the next decade.

因此，我認為在該領域的投資都是在採取任何重大投資步驟之前試圖預測新政府的政策。所以我們仍然對尋找機會非常感興趣。我們非常注重年復一年地繼續成長。我們確實相信，由於我們與公用事業公司的關係，由於我們在該領域的知識、我們的戰略位置以及我們擁有的人力資源，參與該領域，我們有機會投資並為股東增加價值。 。

But exactly what that strategy is going to be in large part is going to be dependent on what the next administration is and what incentives are either continuing or discontinued and how the market reacts to that.

但該策略的具體內容在很大程度上取決於下一屆政府的內容、繼續或停止哪些激勵措施以及市場對此的反應。

And Joe, you didn't mention distributions?

喬，你沒有提到發行版嗎？

Yeah, we like those too. That's definitely a high on my list.

是的，我們也喜歡那些。這絕對是我名單上的前列。

Just a quick follow-up though. Has your thinking changed at all given that the narrative has changed in terms of -- I think folks are recognizing that fossil fuels and coal are going to be here for a long time. Has that changed or informed -- how you think about capital allocation going forward?

不過，只是快速跟進。鑑於敘述已經發生變化，您的想法是否發生了變化——我認為人們已經認識到化石燃料和煤炭將存在很長一段時間。這是否改變或影響了您對未來資本配置的看法？

We've made significant capital investments in our own operations. We believe that the operations that we have invested in do put us in a position to be the low-cost producer in the regions where we operate. I think that if Harris wins the disconnect between the enormous increase in electricity demand versus the policies and EPA rules that they continue to advocate, make it challenging to think in terms of wanting to do something different. I think in answer to your question, if Trump wins, a lot of it, again, going to have to see how our customers react.

我們對自己的營運進行了大量資本投資。我們相信，我們投資的業務確實使我們能夠成為我們經營所在地區的低成本生產商。我認為，如果哈里斯贏得了電力需求大幅增長與他們繼續倡導的政策和環保局規則之間的脫節，那麼就很難思考想要做一些不同的事情。我認為在回答你的問題時，如果川普獲勝，很多時候，我們必須再次看看我們的客戶有何反應。

I do believe, just like the customer I just quoted a few minutes ago with their most recent IRP, we're going to see that more and more in the domestic market, the utilities are not going to want to close those plants, but they're not adding plans. And so each of these plants do have useful life that still mirror the 2035, 2040 time period. So I think we'll really focus on coal being steady and stable, but I don't see us growing -- devoting capital to that area a large amount that would be at the expense of what we're doing in minerals as an example.

我確實相信，就像我幾分鐘前剛剛引用的客戶最近的 IRP 一樣，我們將看到越來越多的國內市場公用事業公司不想關閉這些工廠，但他們不添加計劃。因此，這些工廠的使用壽命確實仍然反映了 2035 年和 2040 年的時間段。因此，我認為我們將真正關注煤炭的穩定和穩定，但我不認為我們會成長——向該領域投入大量資金，這將以犧牲我們在礦產領域所做的事情為代價。

We do believe the runway for minerals is significantly longer than coal. We believe we've had success in it but going steady as we go -- year in, year out, adding and hitting our underwriting standards, we would not want to do anything that would challenge -- would change the course we're doing there. So we got decisions to make rather back to distributions or reinvest in coal. And I think we're pleased with where we are on the coal space.

我們確實相信礦物的跑道比煤炭長得多。我們相信我們已經在這方面取得了成功，但我們會穩步前進——年復一年，增加並達到我們的承保標準，我們不想做任何有挑戰性的事情——這將改變我們正在做的事情那裡。因此，我們做出決定，要麼重新分配，要麼再投資煤炭。我認為我們對煤炭領域的現狀感到滿意。

So I don't see us wanting to invest significant payout capital to participate in acquiring things, believing that the coal is going to be here for the next 25 or 30 years on these new projects, if that makes sense.

因此，我不認為我們願意投入大量支出資本來參與收購，相信煤炭將在未來 25 或 30 年內內存在於這些新項目中，如果這有意義的話。

Yeah, it does. All right. Well, thank you so much.

是的，確實如此。好的。嗯，非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Reichman, Noble Capital Markets.

馬克‧賴克曼（Mark Reichman），諾布爾資本市場。

The Supreme Court recently turned down a request from parties seeking to put a hold on the EPA emissions rule when the litigation moved forward in Federal Appeals Court. And from what I read, at least three of the Justices seem somewhat sympathetic to the states and the energy companies bringing the case. So do you think this is going to get overturned in the lower court? And if not, would you prevail at the Supreme Court level? Or if Trump is elected, would he just undo it? Kind of your thoughts on the EPA emissions rule?

最近，當訴訟在聯邦上訴法院推進時，最高法院拒絕了各方尋求暫緩 EPA 排放規則的請求。據我所知，至少有三名法官似乎對提起訴訟的各州和能源公司有些同情。那麼你認為這會在下級法院被推翻嗎？如果不是，你會在最高法院獲勝嗎？或者如果川普當選，他會撤銷它嗎？您對 EPA 排放規則有何看法？

I do. Yeah, I think that the pattern has been and it's not going to be changed. The pattern has been that the D.C. circuit has not been friendly to look at these rules. They've given more discretion to EPA and other federal agencies in the past. I think with the change by the court on the West Virginia decision as well as the Chevron preference, I do believe that when it gets to the Supreme Court, that it will be overturned.

我願意。是的，我認為這種模式已經存在，並且不會改變。目前的情況是，華盛頓特區電路並沒有友善地看待這些規則。他們過去給予美國環保署和其他聯邦機構更多的自由裁量權。我認為，隨著法院對西維吉尼亞州裁決的改變以及雪佛龍的偏好，我確實相信當它到達最高法院時，它將被推翻。

When you look at everybody that's in the energy space by all comments on the 111(d), what we call Clean Power Plan 2, saying that it is totally outside the realm of what is achievable in that space. So the evidence is overwhelming that it should be defeated in my opinion. And I think that the courts decision was more focused on the procedural aspects of what is needed for a stay versus what the underlying fundamentals of the case are.

當你透過對 111(d)（我們稱之為清潔能源計畫 2）的所有評論來觀察能源領域的每個人時，你會說它完全超出了該領域可實現的範圍。因此，在我看來，有壓倒性的證據表明它應該被擊敗。我認為法院的判決更關注中止所需的程序方面，而不是案件的基本原理。

Supreme Court has gotten a lot of heat about making decisions during political season. Maybe that was influence. I don't really know. But I do believe that, that rule and the other rules that are going to be litigated if Harris wins, they will be overturned and it is sort of a waste of the judicial process, they have to go through it, but it is what it is. That's the way the government works.

最高法院在政治季節做出的決定受到了極大的關注。也許這就是影響力。我真的不知道。但我確實相信，如果哈里斯獲勝，該規則和其他將被提起訴訟的規則將被推翻，這有點浪費司法程序，他們必須經歷它，但事實就是如此。這就是政府的運作方式。

So if Trump wins, on the other hand, I do believe that the EPA will look at these rules and do what they did is first term and take a different approach. And the Biden administration has been very strategic to try to push all these rules through before they are subject to the Congressional Review Act. So it complicates the ability for Trump to just immediately reverse them, but he can go through the same normal regulatory process that they did to get to the position that they got to.

因此，另一方面，如果川普獲勝，我確實相信美國環保署將審視這些規則，並採取他們在第一任期所做的事情，並採取不同的方法。拜登政府非常有策略地試圖在所有這些規則受到國會審查法案的約束之前通過它們。因此，川普立即扭轉這些政策的能力變得複雜化，但他可以透過與他們相同的正常監管程序來達到他們所達到的立場。

And I think that, as I said earlier, the hyperscalers and the demand is going to coincide with the national security interest for America to see as much investment onshore for artificial intelligence as possible and the inherent disconnect or conflict -- I think we'll be more dealt with as a policy issue under the Trump administration and a political issue like it's been managed under the Biden-Harris administration.

我認為，正如我之前所說，超大規模企業和需求將與美國的國家安全利益相一致，即盡可能對人工智慧進行境內投資，以及固有的脫節或衝突——我認為我們會在特在朗普政府下，這個問題更多地被當作一個政策問題來處理，而在拜登-哈里斯政府下，這個問題則被更多地作為一個政治問題來處理。

Alright. Well, thank you very much. That's really helpful.

好吧。嗯，非常感謝。這真的很有幫助。

Appreciate it. Mark.

欣賞它。標記。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Cary Marshall for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節已經結束。我想將會議轉回給卡里·馬歇爾致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator. And to everyone on the call, we appreciate your time this morning as well as your continued support and interest in Alliance. Our next call to discuss our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 financial and operating results is currently expected to occur in early February, and we hope everyone will join us again at that time. This concludes our call for the day. Thank you.

謝謝你，接線生。對於參加電話會議的每個人，我們感謝您今天早上的寶貴時間以及您對 Alliance 的持續支持和關注。我們下一次討論第四季度和 2024 財年財務和營運業績的電話會議目前預計將於 2 月初舉行，我們希望每個人屆時都能再次加入我們。我們今天的電話會議到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. You may disconnect your lines at this time and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。此時您可以斷開線路，感謝您的參與。