Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Alliance Resource Partners LP Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call.

各位好。歡迎參加 Alliance Resource Partners LP 2023 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Cary Marshall, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you. You may begin.

請注意，本次會議將被錄音。現在我將把會議交給資深副總裁兼財務長 Cary Marshall。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone. Earlier this morning, Alliance Resource Partners released its second quarter 2023 financial and operating results, and we will now discuss those results as well as our perspective on current market conditions and outlook for 2023. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call to answer your questions.

謝謝接線員，也歡迎各位。今天稍早，Alliance Resource Partners 已公布其 2023 年第二季財務與營運結果；接下來我們將討論這些結果，以及我們對目前市場狀況與 2023 年展望的看法。在我們的準備發言之後，將開放來電回答各位的問題。

Before beginning, a reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements subject to a variety of risks uncertainties and assumptions contained in our filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are also reflected in this morning's press release. While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected.

在開始之前提醒各位，我們今天的部分發言可能包含前瞻性陳述，該等陳述受多項風險、不確定性與假設影響，相關內容不時載於我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的申報文件中，亦反映於今天早上的新聞稿。雖然這些前瞻性陳述係基於我們目前可得之資訊，但若一項或多項風險或不確定性成真，或我們的基本假設證明不正確，實際結果可能與我們所預測或預期者有重大差異。

And in providing these remarks, the partnership has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by law to do so. Finally, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions and reconciliations of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are contained at the end of ARLP's press release, which has been posted on our website and furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K.

此外，在提供上述發言時，本合夥企業並無義務公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述（無論係因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因），除非法律要求。最後，我們也將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 財務衡量指標之差異定義與調節表，載於 ARLP 新聞稿末尾；該新聞稿已張貼於我們網站，並以 Form 8-K 提供給 SEC。

With the required preliminaries out of the way, I will begin with a review of our results for the second quarter then turn the call over to Joe Craft, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, for his comments.

在完成必要的前置說明後，我將先回顧我們第二季的業績，接著把電話交給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Joe Craft，請他發表評論。

Our strong performance in the 2023 quarter included consolidated revenues of $641.8 million, which were up 3.5% versus the prior year period. The year-over-year improvement was driven primarily by higher coal sales price per ton, which was up 5.7% versus the 2022 quarter and continues to reflect the positive impacts of our contracted order book. On a sequential basis, total coal sales price per ton was down 7.9% or $5.41 per ton. This was primarily due to approximately 500,000 higher-priced 2022 carryover tons shifting the Sequential Quarter at our Tunnel Ridge mine in Appalachia.

我們在 2023 年第二季表現強勁，合併營收為 6.418 億美元，較去年同期成長 3.5%。年增改善主要由每噸煤炭銷售價格較高所帶動，較 2022 年同期上升 5.7%，並持續反映我們已簽約訂單組合的正面影響。就季比而言，煤炭總銷售單價每噸下降 7.9%，或每噸下降 5.41 美元。這主要是因為約 50 萬噸價格較高的 2022 年結轉噸數，在我們阿帕拉契亞地區的 Tunnel Ridge 礦場於本季轉移至本季所致。

In our Royalty segment, total royalties were $50 million, down 8.3% year-over-year and down 2.1% sequentially as lower realized oil and gas commodity pricing was partially offset by increases in coal royalty revenue per ton. Specifically, oil and gas royalties average realized sales prices declined 40.2% per BOE versus the 2022 quarter as NYMEX WTI benchmark pricing peak during June 2022. Sequentially, oil and gas royalties average sales prices were 4.7% lower per BOE. Coal royalty revenue per ton increased 17.4% versus the 2022 quarter and 5.5% sequentially.

在我們的權利金（Royalty）事業部，權利金總額為 5,000 萬美元，年減 8.3%，季減 2.1%；其中較低的已實現油氣商品價格，部分被每噸煤炭權利金收入增加所抵銷。具體而言，由於 NYMEX WTI 基準價格於 2022 年 6 月達到高峰，油氣權利金的平均已實現銷售價格較 2022 年同期每 BOE 下降 40.2%。就季比而言，油氣權利金平均銷售價格每 BOE 下降 4.7%。煤炭權利金每噸收入較 2022 年同期增加 17.4%，並較前一季增加 5.5%。

As it relates to volume, coal production increased 5.8% to 9.4 million tons compared to the 2022 quarter, while coal sales volumes decreased 0.3% to 8.9 million tons, resulting in a build in coal inventories of 500,000 tons during the 2023 quarter. Compared to the Sequential Quarter, coal sales volumes increased 5.1% due to higher sales volumes in Appalachia. There were no longwall moves at our Tunnel Ridge mine in Appalachia this quarter, whereas we had 2 moves in the Sequential Quarter.

就銷量而言，煤炭產量較 2022 年同期增加 5.8% 至 940 萬噸，而煤炭銷售量則下降 0.3% 至 890 萬噸，導致 2023 年第二季煤炭庫存增加 50 萬噸。與前一季相比，煤炭銷售量增加 5.1%，主要因阿帕拉契亞地區銷售量較高。本季我們在阿帕拉契亞的 Tunnel Ridge 礦場沒有進行長壁（longwall）搬遷，而前一季則有 2 次搬遷。

Coal royalty tons sold declined 2.8% year-over-year. Oil and gas royalty volumes were 40.6% higher on a BOE basis due to increased drilling and completion activities on our net acreage and the acquisition of oil and gas mineral interests from Jason Belvedere during the second half of 2022.

煤炭權利金銷售噸數年減 2.8%。油氣權利金產量以 BOE 計年增 40.6%，主要因我們淨持有土地上的鑽井與完井活動增加，以及我們於 2022 年下半年向 Jason Belvedere 收購油氣礦權權益所致。

Turning to costs. Segment Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold for our coal operations was $37.85, an increase of 7.8% versus the 2022 quarter primarily due to higher labor-related expenses, higher maintenance costs as well as the impacts of increased sales-related expenses due to higher sales price realization. These costs were partially offset by lower materials and supplies expenses during the 2023 quarter. On a sequential basis, cost per ton were 4.6% lower primarily on the strength of the additional Appalachia volumes from our lower-cost Tunnel Ridge mine.

接著談成本。我們煤炭營運的分部調整後 EBITDA 成本（以每噸售出計）為 37.85 美元，較 2022 年同期增加 7.8%，主要因勞動相關費用增加、維修成本上升，以及因銷售價格實現較高而導致銷售相關費用增加的影響。上述成本部分被 2023 年第二季材料與用品費用下降所抵銷。就季比而言，每噸成本下降 4.6%，主要受惠於阿帕拉契亞地區來自我們低成本 Tunnel Ridge 礦場的額外銷量。

2023 quarter net income and EBITDA increased 3.8% and 1%, respectively, over the 2022 quarter, primarily due to higher price realizations in coal which more than offset lower realized prices in oil and gas royalties along with the inflationary pressures I previously described.

2023 年第二季淨利與 EBITDA 分別較 2022 年同期增加 3.8% 與 1%，主要因煤炭價格實現較高，足以抵銷油氣權利金已實現價格較低，以及我先前所描述的通膨壓力。

Now turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. Alliance had another strong quarter of cash generation, with $153.5 million of free cash flow before growth investments in the 2023 quarter, an increase of 88.7% year-over-year and 9.7% versus the Sequential Quarter. Our total and net leverage ratios were 0.4x and 0.14x, respectively, total debt to trailing 12 months adjusted EBITDA. Total liquidity of $717.2 million remains strong at quarter end, which included approximately $284.9 million of cash on the balance sheet.

現在談資產負債表與現金流。Alliance 在 2023 年第二季再次展現強勁的現金創造能力：成長性投資前的自由現金流為 1.535 億美元，年增 88.7%，較前一季增加 9.7%。以過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 計算，我們的總槓桿與淨槓桿比率分別為 0.4 倍與 0.14 倍。季末總流動性維持強勁，達 7.172 億美元，其中包含資產負債表上約 2.849 億美元現金。

Our robust cash-generating power is affording us many options to attractively deploy capital. During the 2023 quarter, we paid our quarterly distribution of $0.70 per unit, equating to an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit that we expect to maintain throughout the year. This distribution level is unchanged sequentially and up 75% year-over-year.

我們強勁的現金創造能力，讓我們在具吸引力的資本配置上擁有多種選擇。於 2023 年第二季，我們支付每單位 0.70 美元的季度配息，折合年化每單位 2.80 美元，我們預期全年將維持此水準。該配息水準較前一季不變，且較去年同期增加 75%。

Additionally, we remain committed to prudently managing the outstanding balance of our senior notes due May 2025. During the 2023 quarter, we repurchased $34.2 million of senior notes. And in July 2023, we redeemed another $50 million of senior notes at par. As a result, we ended July with $289.2 million in aggregate principal remaining on the $400 million original issuance. We intend to execute additional purchases and redemptions at par of the senior notes with available cash flows over the next several quarters.

此外，我們仍致力於審慎管理將於 2025 年 5 月到期之優先票據未償餘額。於 2023 年第二季，我們回購了 3,420 萬美元的優先票據；並於 2023 年 7 月以面值再贖回 5,000 萬美元的優先票據。因此，截至 7 月底，原始發行額 4 億美元中，剩餘未償本金合計為 2.892 億美元。我們計畫在未來幾季運用可用現金流，持續以面值執行額外的優先票據買回與贖回。

As we turn to our updated full year 2023 guidance detailed in this morning's release, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the current state of our markets. As we mentioned earlier in the year, the mild winter and slower start to summer reduced overall demand for both coal and natural gas in the United States during the first half of 2023. Natural gas prices declined sequentially and remained significantly below the year ago quarter. Lower natural gas prices affected coal burns due to more competitive gas-fired dispatch options for our customers, particularly during spring shoulder demand season.

接著談到我們在今天早上新聞稿中所詳述的 2023 年全年最新財測指引，我想花幾分鐘說明目前市場狀況。如同我們今年稍早提到的，溫和的冬季與夏季較慢的開端，使得 2023 年上半年美國煤炭與天然氣的整體需求下降。天然氣價格較前一季下滑，且仍顯著低於去年同期。較低的天然氣價格影響了煤炭燃燒量，因為對我們的客戶而言，燃氣發電的調度選項更具競爭力，尤其是在春季需求肩峰期。

Since the end of the 2023 quarter, we have seen a turn in weather patterns with historically high temperatures blanketing much of the U.S. and portions of Europe. A hot summer doesn't necessarily dramatically impact coal burns in the near term as our customers' units typically run baseload during summer peak demand, but it can highlight the vulnerability of the grid when demand is high and renewable sources are unable to adequately respond. Furthermore, if hot weather persists into the fall, it can change normal burn schedules and accelerate coal consumption, reducing inventories heading into winter.

自 2023 年第二季結束以來，我們看到天氣型態出現轉變，美國大部分地區以及歐洲部分地區籠罩在歷史高溫之下。炎熱的夏季未必會在短期內大幅影響煤炭燃燒量，因為我們客戶的機組在夏季尖峰需求期間通常以基載方式運轉；但當需求高企且再生能源來源無法充分回應時，這可能凸顯電網的脆弱性。此外，若高溫天氣延續至秋季，可能改變正常的燃燒排程並加速煤炭消耗，進而在進入冬季前降低庫存。

Overall, based upon the strength of our year-to-date results, our contracted committed tons and a relentless focus on cost control, we remain optimistic 2023 will be another record year for ARLP.

總體而言，基於我們年初至今業績的強勁表現、已簽約的承諾噸數，以及對成本控制的持續專注，我們仍然樂觀地認為 2023 年將是 ARLP 再創紀錄的一年。

As we updated our 2023 full year guidance ranges, the mild market conditions I just described caused some movement in contract deliveries and shifted the mix between export and domestic markets. We now anticipate ARLP's overall coal sales volumes in 2023 to be in a range of 35.5 million to 36 million tons, down from the previous range of 36 million to 38 million tons. Illinois Basin volumes have been adjusted to reflect lower volumes at our Gibson and River View operations, while our Appalachia volume guidance reflects an extended longwall move at our Mettiki mine.

在我們更新 2023 年全年指引區間時，我剛才描述的溫和市場狀況導致部分合約交付出現變動，並使出口與國內市場之間的組合有所轉移。我們目前預期 ARLP 於 2023 年的整體煤炭銷售量將落在 3,550 萬至 3,600 萬噸的區間，低於先前 3,600 萬至 3,800 萬噸的區間。伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）銷量已調整，以反映我們 Gibson 與 River View 作業的較低產量；而阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）銷量指引則反映 Mettiki 礦場長壁（longwall）搬遷時間延長。

Our committed tonnage for full year 2023 is 34.5 million tons at the end of the quarter or 96% to 97% of our anticipated sales tons. Of that total, 4.8 million tons are currently committed to export markets. The balance of unsold tonnage levels is expected to be supplied in the export markets, primarily from our lowest cost operations, thereby still generating attractive margins.

截至本季末，我們 2023 年全年的承諾噸數為 3,450 萬噸，約占我們預期銷售噸數的 96% 至 97%。其中，現有 480 萬噸已承諾供應出口市場。其餘未售噸數預期將供應出口市場，主要來自我們成本最低的作業，因而仍可創造具吸引力的利潤率。

Sales pricing for the year is anticipated to be slightly lower than at the time of our last update, we've chosen to modestly adjust the top end of our range for average coal price realizations down by $1 to a new range of $65 to $66 per ton versus $65 to $67 per ton previously. On the cost side, solid execution from our operations team allows us to improve our outlook for Segment Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton by $1 to a new range of $38 to $41 per ton.

今年的銷售定價預期將略低於我們上次更新時的水準；我們選擇將平均煤價實現值區間的上緣小幅下調 1 美元，調整後的新區間為每噸 65 至 66 美元，先前為每噸 65 至 67 美元。在成本方面，我們營運團隊的穩健執行使我們得以將每噸分部調整後 EBITDA 費用（Segment Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton）的展望下調 1 美元，至每噸 38 至 41 美元的新區間。

Within Appalachia, we do anticipate higher costs in the back half of the year due to the extended longwall move at Mettiki in the third quarter as well as a normal longwall move scheduled for our Tunnel Ridge mine in the fourth quarter.

在阿帕拉契亞地區，我們確實預期下半年成本將較高，原因是第三季 Mettiki 的長壁搬遷時間延長，以及第四季我們 Tunnel Ridge 礦場排定的例行長壁搬遷。

In our Oil & Gas royalty segment, we are reiterating our volume guidance ranges for the full year 2023. And we also made a number of adjustments to our outlook including lower DD&A, the $10 million improvement in SG&A and a slight reduction in total capital expenditures.

在我們的油氣權利金（Oil & Gas royalty）分部，我們重申 2023 年全年的產量指引區間。同時，我們也對展望做出多項調整，包括較低的折耗攤銷（DD&A）、SG&A 改善 1,000 萬美元，以及總資本支出的小幅下調。

With that, I will turn the call over to Joe for comments on the market and his outlook for ARLP. Joe?

接下來，我將把電話會議交給 Joe，請他就市場狀況及其對 ARLP 的展望發表評論。Joe？

Thank you, Cary, and good morning, everyone. I want to begin my comments by thanking the entire Alliance organization for their continued hard work and dedication, which allowed us to post solid results for the quarter and the first half of 2023. Their efforts helped us deliver year-over-year improvements in coal production, realized coal prices, oil and gas royalty volumes, net income and EBITDA.

謝謝你，Cary，各位早安。我想先在評論開始時，感謝 Alliance 全體同仁持續的努力與投入，讓我們在本季以及 2023 年上半年繳出穩健的成果。他們的努力協助我們在煤炭產量、煤炭實現價格、油氣權利金產量、淨利與 EBITDA 等方面，達成年增的改善。

Our year-to-date results have been impressive despite coal demand, both domestically and globally being lower than we expected entering this year due to a slower economic growth mild weather in our targeted markets and lower natural gas prices. The strong first half performance was led by significantly higher coal sales price per ton, which rose by 21.8%, resulting in total revenues in the 2023 period, increasing by 20.4% to $1.3 billion compared to $1.1 billion for the 2022 period. The year-over-year improvement in realized coal prices reflects the positive impacts of our contracted order book.

儘管今年以來國內與全球煤炭需求都低於我們在年初預期（原因包括經濟成長放緩、目標市場天氣溫和，以及天然氣價格較低），我們年初至今的成果仍令人印象深刻。上半年強勁表現主要由每噸煤炭銷售價格顯著提高所帶動，該價格上升 21.8%，使 2023 期間總營收較 2022 期間的 11 億美元增加 20.4% 至 13 億美元。煤炭實現價格的年增改善反映了我們已簽約訂單（contracted order book）的正面影響。

Segment Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold for our Coal Operations for the first half of 2023 was $38.73, an increase of 15% versus the 2022 period, primarily due to inflationary pressures throughout the year. Our net income and EBITDA rose sharply in the 2023 period, increasing 79% and 29.6%, respectively, over the 2022 period. These increases reflect higher sales volumes in both coal and oil and gas royalties as well as higher price realizations in coal, which more than offset lower realized prices in oil and gas royalties along with the inflationary pressures that Cary previously described.

2023 年上半年，我們煤炭營運（Coal Operations）每噸售出煤炭的分部調整後 EBITDA 費用為 38.73 美元，較 2022 期間增加 15%，主要是因全年通膨壓力所致。我們在 2023 期間的淨利與 EBITDA 大幅上升，分別較 2022 期間增加 79% 與 29.6%。這些增幅反映煤炭與油氣權利金的銷售量提高，以及煤炭價格實現值上升，足以抵銷油氣權利金實現價格較低，以及 Cary 先前所描述的通膨壓力。

As Cary also mentioned, we have adjusted our production targets lower for this year in response to lower domestic demand driven by lower natural gas prices. We are now operating 4 production units at our Gibson South mine, down 1 unit from the original guidance in January 2023. At River View, we have moved some units from production mode to construction mode to accelerate the timing of the previously announced expansion project at River View. In June, we had a groundbreaking event for the new Henderson County mine site where the new shaft will connect through underground conveyors to eventually be conveyed to the River View prep plant and barge terminal. This project is now scheduled to be completed at the end of 2024.

如 Cary 也提到的，我們因應天然氣價格較低所帶動的國內需求下滑，已將今年的生產目標下調。我們目前在 Gibson South 礦場運行 4 個生產單元，較 2023 年 1 月原先指引少 1 個單元。在 River View，我們已將部分單元由生產模式轉為建設模式，以加速先前公告的 River View 擴建專案時程。6 月，我們在新的 Henderson County 礦區舉行動土儀式，新井筒將透過地下輸送帶連接，最終輸送至 River View 選煤廠（prep plant）與駁船碼頭。該專案目前預計於 2024 年底完工。

Committed and priced sales tons currently represent 96% to 97% of our updated guidance range, and we plan to sell any remaining uncontracted tonnage primarily into international markets. While our view of export sales volume opportunities has not changed, pricing has been more volatile than previously expected. Accordingly, we have adjusted the top end of our coal sales price per ton sold range downward from the recent market analysis. On the positive side, we are also lowering our cost estimates by the same amount per ton sold for the year as our team continues to find ways to reduce expenses in a severely volatile inflationary environment.

目前已承諾且已定價的銷售噸數約占我們更新後指引區間的 96% 至 97%，我們計畫將任何剩餘未簽約噸數主要銷往國際市場。雖然我們對出口銷售量機會的看法並未改變，但價格波動較先前預期更為劇烈。因此，我們依據近期市場分析，將每噸售出煤炭銷售價格區間的上緣下調。正面的是，由於團隊在高度波動的通膨環境中持續尋找降低費用的方法，我們也以相同的每噸幅度下調今年的成本估計。

During the 2023 quarter, we agreed to sell an additional 8.6 million tons with multiple customers for coal to be delivered over the 2024 to 2026 time period. As we can see in our updated sales guidance, we committed meaningful tonnage in 2024. We expect contracting activity to continue in the coming months. As of the end of the second quarter, we have committed to sell 25.5 million tons domestically in 2024 and 1.4 million tons to international markets, representing an increase of 3.5 million tons from our last update. We also committed and priced a total of 5.1 million tons for delivery in 2025 and 2026. Our contracting customers continue to value the certainty of supply we provide across all market conditions.

在 2023 年本季期間，我們同意與多家客戶額外銷售 860 萬噸煤炭，交付期間為 2024 至 2026 年。從我們更新後的銷售指引可見，我們在 2024 年承諾了相當可觀的噸數。我們預期未來幾個月簽約活動將持續。截至第二季末，我們已承諾於 2024 年在國內市場銷售 2,550 萬噸，並向國際市場銷售 140 萬噸，較上次更新增加 350 萬噸。我們也已承諾並定價合計 510 萬噸，將於 2025 與 2026 年交付。我們的簽約客戶持續重視我們在各種市場環境下所提供的供應確定性。

The modest guidance revisions this quarter have not changed our view that we still are on track to achieve record financial results this year. As we look beyond 2023, we are encouraged by growth opportunities being pursued by our New Ventures group, the recent increase in the forward oil and gas price curves and acquisition prospects for our Oil & Gas Royalties segment. We are also seeing stability for coal demand over the next several years.

本季小幅的指引修訂並未改變我們的看法：我們仍按計畫在今年達成創紀錄的財務成果。展望 2023 年之後，我們對新事業（New Ventures）團隊所追求的成長機會、近期遠期油氣價格曲線的上升，以及油氣權利金分部的併購前景感到鼓舞。我們也看到未來數年煤炭需求的穩定性。

Many of our customers are projecting significant growth in electricity demand as record numbers of new manufacturing facilities are being announced to come online over the next several years. All of these announced projects require exceptionally large electrical loads adding to the reliability concerns of the stakeholders responsible for meeting the rising energy needs of their customers. The increased electricity demand should lead to slowing the premature closing of coal-fired power plants in the Eastern United States. We also expect the growth in LNG terminals coming online over the next 5 years will support higher domestic natural gas prices further supporting stable demand expectations for our coal segment over the next 5 to 10 years.

我們許多客戶預期電力需求將顯著成長，因為未來數年將有創紀錄數量的新製造設施宣布投產。所有這些已公告的專案都需要極大的用電負載，進一步加劇了負責滿足客戶日益上升能源需求之利害關係人的供電可靠度疑慮。電力需求增加應可減緩美國東部燃煤電廠過早關閉的情況。我們也預期未來 5 年將有更多 LNG 終端投產，將支撐更高的國內天然氣價格，進一步支持我們煤炭分部在未來 5 至 10 年的穩定需求展望。

In closing, I'm pleased with ARLP's solid first half results and encouraged by the opportunities in front of us. We continue to add to our heavily contracted coal book at attractive levels and our robust cash flow generation positions us to continue improving our balance sheet and pursue attractive investments to meet the evolving energy needs of tomorrow. Looking forward, we believe ARLP is well positioned to deliver solid growth and attractive cash returns to our unitholders in 2023 and beyond.

最後，我對 ARLP 上半年穩健的成果感到滿意，也對眼前的機會感到鼓舞。我們持續以具吸引力的水準增加高度簽約的煤炭訂單組合，而我們強勁的現金流創造能力，使我們得以持續改善資產負債表，並追求具吸引力的投資，以滿足未來不斷演變的能源需求。展望未來，我們相信 ARLP 已具備良好定位，可在 2023 年及其後為我們的單位持有人（unitholders）帶來穩健成長與具吸引力的現金回報。

That concludes our prepared comments, and I will now ask the operator to open the call for questions.

以上就是我們事先準備的發言，接下來我將請接線員開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Our first question is from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company.

我們的第一個問題來自 The Benchmark Company 的 Nathan Martin。

First, great job on the cost side. However, similar to the first quarter, 2Q shipment's a little bit lower than I expected, especially based on production. So maybe a bit of a multipronged question to start. First, anything behind the additional 0.5 million tons of inventory built. You guys did mention reduced export sales.

首先，在成本面表現很出色。不過，和第一季類似，第二季出貨量比我預期的略低，尤其是從產量來看。因此先從一個多面向的問題開始。第一，庫存額外增加 50 萬噸背後有什麼原因？你們確實提到出口銷售減少。

Second, do you feel confident shipments will pick up in the second half over the first half? And what do you expect that sales cadence to look like in 3Q, 4Q? And then finally, is there any risk to the further sales guidance cuts based on your conversations with utilities at this point?

第二，你們是否有信心下半年出貨量會高於上半年？你們預期第三季、第四季的銷售節奏會是什麼樣子？最後，根據你們目前與公用事業客戶的對話，是否存在進一步下修銷售指引的風險？

So I try to remember all your questions. So let me go ahead and give you a stream of answers here, and then I'll follow up to see if I make sure that I covered everything you asked. But specifically to the first half, our production was running on a higher clip through the second quarter. And as a result, that's the primary reason for our increase to the 500,000 ton inventory level. So our actual contract book has been run consistent -- has been running consistent with what our ratable requirements are under the contract.

我會盡量記住你所有的問題。那我先連續回答一串，之後再確認是否都有涵蓋你問的重點。就上半年而言，我們在第二季的產量維持在較高的運轉水準。因此，這是我們庫存增加到 50 萬噸水準的主要原因。我們實際的合約訂單簿一直—一直與合約下的平均分攤（ratable）提貨需求保持一致。

So if we look at our contracts and look at our average ratable rate, we're right at 99% of what we should be under the contracts, which is really good because there's always certain issues that people have to deal with. So we feel very good about our customers adhering to the contract terms in the first half. And as we look to the second half, we expect the same. I think that there are a few customers that are constantly asking us for deferrals.

如果我們檢視合約並看平均分攤提貨率，我們達到合約應有水準的 99%，這非常好，因為總會有一些狀況需要處理。因此，我們對上半年客戶遵守合約條款的情況感到非常滿意。展望下半年，我們也預期會是同樣的情況。我認為確實有少數客戶一直在向我們要求延後提貨。

However, I believe all our customers appreciate what we did for them in 2022, and they understand that they should do the same thing for us this year. As we think through the biggest issue, I guess, on timing, it gets into the export market we have a couple of customers that are definitely committed to take the volume. The timing is somewhat lumpy and that does impact some of the volumes in the first half as well, not by much, but by a little.

不過，我相信所有客戶都很感謝我們在 2022 年為他們所做的事，他們也理解今年應該同樣回饋我們。就最大的問題—我想是在時點上—而言，會牽涉到出口市場；我們有幾位客戶確實承諾會提走這些量，但時點上會比較不均勻，這也會對上半年的部分出貨量造成影響，幅度不大，但確實有一些。

As we look to the end of the year, we're anticipating with our guidance about 0.5 million tons of inventory. I would not expect that to grow beyond what would be normal. When we entered into this year, we had about 0.5 million tons of carryover. Most of that was just tied to timing of vessel shipments and other methods. So I think as we look at this year, trying to factor in what we think the demand for export is, what we think the contract takes under our contracts would be.

展望年底，依照我們的指引，我們預期庫存約為 50 萬噸。我不預期它會超出正常水準而增加。進入今年時，我們約有 50 萬噸的結轉庫存，其中大部分只是與船舶出貨時點及其他方式的時差有關。因此，我認為在看今年時，我們會把我們對出口需求的判斷、以及我們認為在合約下的提貨量納入考量。

We believe we're on track to our current guidance and the way I would measure any variability to that, and we wouldn't -- we don't expect it to be greater than what our 500,000 ton was last year. It's always possible for things to change, but there's a lot of encouraging signs as we look at the last 12 months, one for comparison. When you compare 2022 against 2023, about this time last year, we saw customers starting to delay and defer coal tonnage. So when you start looking at comparisons in '23 versus '22, you're not going to see the significant difference as what we saw in the first half on coal shipments in our view.

我們相信目前進度符合現行指引；若要衡量其中可能的變動幅度，我們不會—我們不預期會大於去年 50 萬噸的水準。事情當然可能改變，但回顧過去 12 個月，有許多令人鼓舞的跡象可作比較。當你把 2022 與 2023 相比，大約在去年這個時候，我們看到客戶開始延後與遞延煤炭提貨量。因此，當你開始看 2023 相對 2022 的比較時，你不會看到像我們認為上半年煤炭出貨那樣顯著的差異。

We've seen this hot spell in July and that doesn't seem like it's going to abate anytime soon. So we think that's going to be positive for coal burns. The natural gas forward curve is still approaching 350 at the end of the year, which is constructive and going into the winter, depending on exactly how long this heat wave goes and really what happens in the economy. We believe that we're well positioned running into 2024.

我們在 7 月看到一波高溫，而且看起來短期內不會緩解。因此我們認為這將有利於燃煤發電量。天然氣遠期曲線在年底仍接近 3.50（美元），這是建設性的；進入冬季後，取決於這波熱浪會持續多久，以及經濟實際走向如何。我們相信我們在邁向 2024 年時處於有利位置。

So overall, I'm very pleased with our customers and their willingness to continue to take under the terms of our contract. I'm optimistic that the guidance we've given that there should not be any further adjustments on demand. We will be, as we said in our prepared comments, slowing down production. So Cary, I don't know if you want to comment specifically on the cadence for the third quarter and fourth quarter on sales that we're projecting.

總體而言，我對客戶以及他們願意持續依照合約條款提貨感到非常滿意。我也樂觀認為，我們所給出的指引在需求面不應再需要進一步調整。正如我們在事先準備的發言中所說，我們將放慢生產速度。Cary，我不確定你是否想就我們預估第三季與第四季的銷售節奏做更具體的說明。

Yes. As you just take a look at what our expectation is in the third and fourth quarter, it's pretty ratable between the 2 quarters when you look at the anticipated volumes that we would anticipate to ship in each one of the quarters. So when you take a look at what we did in the first half and back into our overall guidance, I would anticipate shipments to be pretty equal in the third and fourth quarter of the year. Not really that unusual to what we experienced last year at this time as well. We were in a similar situation, and that was the result last year, and that's our expectation for this year as well.

好的。若看我們對第三季與第四季的預期，從我們預計在各季出貨的量來看，兩個季度之間相當平均、相當分攤。因此，當你回頭看我們上半年的表現並對照全年指引，我預期第三季與第四季的出貨量會相當接近。這其實也不算特別異常，去年這個時候我們也處於類似情況，而去年結果就是如此；今年我們的預期也是一樣。

Great. Really appreciate the color there, guys. And then maybe looking ahead, good job securing that additional tonnage you called out for '24 to '26. As we look at '24 and beyond, do you feel like this 36 million-ton run rate for '23 is still achievable over the next few years? I know there's obviously some puts and takes. But It'd be great to get your thoughts on maybe potential EPA regulations flowing around. Joe, you just talked about some of the demand that's coming online on the industrial side. How do you think those things affect your production and maybe even U.S. coal production overall as we look ahead?

很好。非常感謝你們提供這些細節。接著往前看，你們在 2024 到 2026 年取得你們提到的額外噸數，做得很棒。當我們看 2024 年及之後，你們覺得 2023 年 3,600 萬噸的運轉率在未來幾年仍可達成嗎？我知道當中顯然有一些增減因素。但也很希望聽聽你們對可能出現的 EPA 監管規範的看法。Joe，你剛提到工業端新增上線的一些需求。你認為這些因素會如何影響你們的產量，甚至影響我們展望未來時美國整體煤炭產量？

So to answer your first question, yes, we do believe the 36 million run rate is sustainable over the next several years. When we look at the negotiations that are yet to be determined in the back half, we've got probably over a half dozen customers that we believe will be in the market to fill out their book for '24 plus. Most of our solicitations have been for a 3-year period and most of them are at similar tonnage.

先回答你的第一個問題：是的，我們確實相信 3,600 萬噸的運轉率在未來幾年是可持續的。當我們看下半年尚待確定的談判，我們大概有超過半打的客戶，我們認為他們會在市場上補足其 2024 年以後的合約量。大多數的詢價（solicitations）都是以 3 年期為主，而且多數的噸數也相近。

So we believe that with our customer base and their plans for the future, we do see the ability to maintain our 36 million at a minimum. It could go higher depending on what we want to do in the export market. So we're targeting about 6.5 million tons this year into the export market. It's possible that, that number would go down if we are successful on some solicitations in the back half with the ability to flex back up to something over 36 million depending on the export market next year and the following year.

因此，基於我們的客戶基礎以及他們對未來的規劃，我們確實看到至少能維持 3,600 萬噸的能力。若我們在出口市場想要更積極，數字也可能更高。今年我們的目標是出口市場約 650 萬噸。如果我們在下半年的一些詢價案上取得成功，該數字可能會下降，並且我們也有能力把總量彈性拉回到 3,600 萬噸以上，這取決於明年及後年的出口市場狀況。

So specifically to the EPA rules, EPA, they are out there in force trying to accelerate this transition. We believe that essentially everything they're doing is in violation of the major questions doctrine that was the result of the West Virginia versus EPA decision last year by the Supreme Court. So there's a lot of legal activity going on to try to prevent those rules from coming into effect. I think that with the demand projections for electricity. There are several utilities that are engaged in, as well as NERC, FERC, the different RTOs trying to give warning signs to the administration that we need to maintain all of our fossil fuel fleet. That's both coal and natural gas.

至於 EPA 規則，EPA 正在強力推動、試圖加速這項轉型。我們認為他們基本上所做的一切，都違反了「重大問題原則」（major questions doctrine），該原則源自去年最高法院在「西維吉尼亞州訴 EPA」案的判決。因此，目前有大量法律行動正在進行，試圖阻止這些規則生效。我認為，從電力需求的預測來看，有多家公用事業也在參與，另外還有 NERC、FERC 以及不同的 RTO，都在向政府提出警訊：我們需要維持所有的化石燃料機組，包括燃煤與天然氣。

There's still pressure for some that believe that you can continue to close plants and still grow electricity. I don't quite understand that as far as generation to meet the growing demand. So we're -- we feel good about the future, and we feel good about the demand last week, just Elon Musk spoke at a Pacific Gas and Electric Summit. And he basically was saying that his biggest concern is there's insufficient urgency and people just don't understand how much electricity demand there will be. He's basically -- the headlines were a tripling of electrical output.

仍然有人施壓並認為你可以一邊持續關閉電廠、一邊讓用電量成長。就滿足成長需求所需的發電能力而言，我不太理解這種說法。因此我們—我們對未來感到樂觀，也對上週的需求訊息感到正面；Elon Musk 在太平洋瓦電（Pacific Gas and Electric）峰會上發表談話，他基本上表示他最大的擔憂是緊迫感不足，而且人們並不了解電力需求將會有多大。他基本上—媒體標題是電力輸出將增加到三倍。

We believe the same thing that Elon is saying. I don't know about the math, but we definitely are seeing in everything we're looking at, that the demand predictions for electricity are pretty low by our investor-owned utilities compared to what we're hearing of opportunities to make investments in this transition area that's going to require quite a bit of electric load. And so -- and you still see the delay in getting replacements for coal plants. So we think it's going to be delayed practically speaking, and hopefully by policy.

我們相信 Elon 所說的是同一件事。我不確定數學怎麼算，但我們在所觀察的一切中確實看到，投資人持有的公用事業公司對電力需求的預測相當偏低，與我們聽到在這個轉型領域進行投資的機會相比——而這些投資將需要相當可觀的用電負載。而且——你仍然看到燃煤電廠替代方案取得上的延宕。所以我們認為，從實務角度來看會被延後，希望政策上也是如此。

But President Biden continues to double down on his beliefs but I think in talking to the industry, there's some caution that's being raised and we're getting input from customers just saying that we need you to continue to maintain your production level for the next decade is what we're hearing now. We'll have to wait and see where the politics rules over what the engineering officers are saying or engineering management saying. But we feel good about our demand staying at current at this -- at the 36 million tons, and hopefully, we can grow it a little bit.

但拜登總統仍持續加碼堅持他的信念；不過我認為，與產業對話時，確實有人提出一些需要謹慎的提醒，而我們也從客戶那邊收到回饋，基本上是說：我們需要你們在未來十年持續維持目前的產量水準——這是我們現在聽到的。接下來就得觀察政治會如何凌駕於工程主管或工程管理層的看法之上。但我們對需求能維持在目前——也就是 3,600 萬噸——感到樂觀，並希望還能小幅成長。

Very helpful, Joe. And then maybe just finally, if I could ask one last question. You guys mentioned your cash position, your liquidity is affording you the ability to look at multiple investments. Can you talk about some of those opportunities you guys are seeing in the marketplace currently? And maybe on the oil and gas side and the new venture side? Any thought on timing or size would be great as well.

非常有幫助，Joe。那最後也許我可以再問一個問題。你們提到你們的現金部位、流動性讓你們有能力評估多項投資。你能談談目前在市場上看到的一些機會嗎？也許包含油氣端以及新事業端？若能分享一下時點或規模方面的想法也會很有幫助。

On the oil and gas side, we committed and everything is still continuing to be the same as what we've indicated to you all before, and that is we're reinvesting prior year's EBITDA into the oil and gas space. So through the second quarter, we've invested around $76 million and with our guidance that leaves probably $35 million or so. Well, we had $35 million for the ground game is what we call it as opposed to competing in packages. And we've completed around $4 million of that in the first half. And just in July, we closed $5 million of investments. As we look to the balance of the year, so there's another $25 million or so, we would -- we think there are opportunities out there. So I would expect that we will be able to complete those investments in our Oil & Gas segment.

在油氣端，我們已承諾的事項以及目前的進展都仍與先前向各位說明的一致，也就是我們把前一年度的 EBITDA 再投資到油氣領域。因此截至第二季，我們已投資約 7,600 萬美元；依照我們的指引，可能還剩下約 3,500 萬美元左右。嗯，我們所謂的「地面作戰」（ground game），是相對於去競標整包資產（packages）而言，我們原本規劃有 3,500 萬美元；而上半年我們已完成約 400 萬美元。就在 7 月，我們又完成了 500 萬美元的投資。展望今年剩餘期間，還有約 2,500 萬美元左右，我們——我們認為市場上確實有機會。因此我預期我們將能在油氣事業部完成這些投資。

In our royalty segment, we continue to be positive on that segment for the long term. We continue to see oil demand in the world at record levels. We really just don't see that changing even with the conversion to electric vehicles, we think electric vehicles will grow. We're not in the belief that it's going to grow as fast as I believe. But with the refining and the world demand for oil, we believe that we'll continue to see great opportunities to invest that cash flow and get returns comparable to what we've been getting, which we find them to be attractive.

在我們的權利金（Royalty）事業部方面，我們對該事業部的長期前景仍維持正向看法。我們持續看到全球石油需求處於歷史高檔。我們真的不認為即便轉向電動車，這個情況會改變；我們認為電動車會成長，但我們不認為它會像我所相信的那樣成長得那麼快。不過考量煉油端以及全球對石油的需求，我們相信我們將持續看到很好的機會，把這些現金流投入並取得與我們過去相當的報酬，我們認為這些報酬具吸引力。

With natural gas, with LNG terminals coming on, we think the demand is going to be growing there as well, which benefits not only our Royalty segment, but also should impact domestic pricing, which will benefit our coal operations. On the new venture side, Matrix is continuing to perform as we previously expected. We are also looking at several opportunities to invest in the new ventures area. Our primary focus right now are on energy solutions issues, which basically get into batteries, storage and other aspects of the battery belt and opportunities that are presenting itself with the continued investments from Michigan down through Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Tennessee, et cetera, which is right in our service territory. I have nothing to talk to you about today, hopefully, by the next earnings call, we'll be able to give you better color on the opportunities that we're talking about there.

至於天然氣，隨著 LNG 終端陸續投產，我們認為那邊的需求也會成長，這不僅有利於我們的權利金事業部，也應該會影響國內定價，進而有利於我們的煤炭營運。在新事業端，Matrix 的表現持續符合我們先前的預期。我們也正在評估數個新事業領域的投資機會。我們目前的主要聚焦在能源解決方案議題上，基本上涵蓋電池、儲能，以及電池產業帶（battery belt）的其他面向；隨著從密西根一路往南到印第安納、肯塔基、俄亥俄、田納西等地持續投資，相關機會也正在浮現，而這些都正位於我們的服務範圍內。我今天沒有更多可以對各位說明的內容；希望到下一次財報電話會議時，我們能就我們正在談的那些機會提供更清楚的資訊。

Our next question is from Mark Reichman with Noble Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 Noble Capital Markets 的 Mark Reichman。

I was going to -- can you hear me?

我本來要——你們聽得到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear.

是的，我們聽得到。

Okay. I had to dial in on my iPhone because we were having problems with the server on the other phones. So the question I have is looking at sales, I mean it looks to me like even at the low end of your guidance, you're still going to have modestly higher sales in the second half. For me, I think the wildcard is really the price. Illinois Basin pricing has been relatively steady, but the pricing in Appalachia fell considerably second quarter versus the first quarter, but your guidance suggests on a total basis that really only shaved off $1 at the top end. So could you just maybe illuminate your expectations on pricing between the basins for the remainder of the year?

好的。我得用 iPhone 撥入，因為其他電話的伺服器出了問題。我想問的是關於銷售：我的看法是，即使以你們指引的低端來看，下半年銷量仍會小幅增加。對我來說，真正的不確定因素是價格。伊利諾盆地（Illinois Basin）的價格相對穩定，但阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）的價格在第二季相較第一季大幅下滑；然而你們的指引顯示，整體而言在高端其實只少了 1 美元。所以你能否說明一下，你們對今年剩餘期間各盆地之間定價的預期？

Yes. So we're totally focused on the international markets. So there's really no spot market. We don't anticipate there'll be any activity for 2023. And if you look at the one thermal mine we have basically in East Kentucky is really a premier product, and it doesn't really trade off those indexes. We don't have that much to sell open to the market this year there anyway. So our reduction down really reflects the decrease in API 2 in the export pricing of the export market that we're planning to fill for balance of these sales.

是的。我們完全聚焦在國際市場。因此基本上沒有現貨市場。我們不預期 2023 年會有任何活動。而且如果你看我們在東肯塔基（East Kentucky）那座熱煤礦，它基本上是頂級產品，並不真正跟著那些指數交易。今年我們在那邊也沒有太多可對外市場銷售的量。所以我們下修主要反映的是 API 2 下滑，亦即我們計畫在剩餘銷售中要填補的出口市場之出口定價下降。

When you're looking at the pricing, that's on a delivered basis. So there's a lot of different moving parts back to transportation and logistics that can soften some of that as far as getting a good netback back at the mine. So we've estimated when we've got several conversations going on with our trading partners for those export volumes. And we believe we conservatively priced what we think those sales opportunities are going to be in the back half of this year, and we're confident that we can place those tons.

當你看定價時，那是以到岸（delivered）基礎來看的。因此在運輸與物流方面有很多不同的變動因素，可能會在回到礦端的淨回收（netback）上起到一些緩衝作用。我們已根據與交易夥伴就那些出口量進行的多次對話做出估算。我們相信，我們對今年下半年那些銷售機會所採用的定價是保守的，而且我們有信心能把那些噸數安排出去。

So we feel really good about our guidance as long as we can continue to execute and the demand stays consistent with where it is now. And it's hard to see what catalyst would change that based on conversations we have. There's always surprises. But right now, we feel very good about our guidance.

因此，只要我們能持續執行、且需求維持在目前水準，我們對指引非常有信心。根據我們的對話，很難看出有什麼催化因素會改變這點。當然總會有意外。但就目前而言，我們對指引感到非常有把握。

Well, I guess what I'm kind of getting at is it kind of implies an improvement in the third and the fourth quarter in Appalachia pricing relative to the second quarter, but maybe not as high as the first quarter. I mean, but you would expect maybe a rebound in pricing in Appalachia, assuming Illinois Basin remains relatively constant. I think right now, I have Illinois Basin little weaker in the second half. But just as the model stands now, I think I'm around 65 in the quarter on a full year basis. But like I said, that does imply the third and the fourth quarter coal sales price per ton in Appalachia quite a bit higher than the second quarter. Is that kind of consistent with what you're thinking?

嗯，我想我真正想表達的是：這似乎暗示阿帕拉契亞的價格在第三、第四季相對第二季會改善，但可能不如第一季那麼高。也就是說，假設伊利諾盆地維持相對穩定，你們會預期阿帕拉契亞價格出現反彈。我認為目前我看到伊利諾盆地下半年會稍弱一些。但就模型目前的狀態，我全年大概抓每季 65（美元/噸）。但如我所說，這確實意味著第三、第四季阿帕拉契亞的每噸煤炭銷售價格會比第二季高出不少。這跟你們的想法一致嗎？

Yes. Mark, I don't know what you mean by quite a bit higher. But I think as we look at the second half in Appalachia, we do anticipate it being slightly higher than where we were in the second quarter. Generally speaking, on the Appalachia side as we look at the back half of the year, anywhere from 2% to 4% higher than where we were in the second quarter. It's kind of as we look at the pricing piece of it related to that particular area where our guidance kind of zeros in on.

是的。Mark，我不確定你所說的「高出不少」是指多少。但我們看阿帕拉契亞下半年時，確實預期會比第二季略高。一般而言，就阿帕拉契亞端來看，我們預期下半年會比第二季高約 2% 到 4%。這大致就是我們指引在該區域相關定價部分所聚焦的範圍。

Those are contracts too, Mark. So I mean it's not like we're looking at the market and projecting on the domestic side because we're looking at contract book and what is expected to be delivered on our contracts.

而且那些也是合約，Mark。也就是說，我們不是在看國內市場然後做市場預測；我們看的是合約簿，以及依合約預期要交付的內容。

Yes, it's pretty firm. It's pretty firm. At this point, you've got good visibility there. And then the second question was just on the G&A. I mean a $10 million reduction. I mean, that's almost 10% of the full year previous guidance. I guess your due guidance would kind of track with the first and the second quarter expenditures. But were there any expenditures that you just -- that you were expecting that you decided not to spend? Or what do you attribute to your -- lowering your G&A expense guidance?

是的，這相當確定。這相當確定。就目前而言，你在那邊的能見度很好。第二個問題是關於 G&A。我是說，減少 1,000 萬美元——這幾乎是先前全年指引的 10%。我想你們目前的指引大致會跟第一、第二季的支出水準一致。但是否有任何支出是你們原本預期會花、但後來決定不花的？或者你們把 G&A 費用指引下調，主要歸因於什麼？

I think really when you get into G&A, it's just looking at what full year results and the impact that we have in terms of the full year results are anticipated and what that impact works back to on the G&A side...

我認為，當你深入看 G&A（一般及行政費用）時，基本上就是在看全年業績，以及我們對全年業績的影響預期為何，並把這個影響回推到 G&A 端會是什麼樣子……

So kind of you adjusted it based on kind of your first half spending and that, like I said, that kind of tracks with the new full year guidance in terms of around $80 million. But okay. Well, that was -- I mean $10 million was pretty significant relative to the previous guidance. And then just lastly, and I think this kind of goes to Nathan's question earlier, which I thought was a good one. You have very strong free cash flow, roughly what, about $140 million, $139 million, very strong coverage on the dividend. So just basically kind of how are you kind of thinking about capital allocation? I know you took down some debt recently. So just kind of your overall view on do you think you'll get more active on the acquisition front? Or just how are you kind of thinking about managing the cash flow that you're generating?

所以你算是根據上半年支出做了調整；而且如我所說，這與新的全年指引大約 8,000 萬美元相符。不過好吧，那個——我是說，相較於先前的指引，1,000 萬美元的變動幅度相當顯著。最後一點，我想這也呼應 Nathan 先前的問題，我覺得那是個好問題。你們的自由現金流非常強勁，大概是多少，約 1.40 億美元、1.39 億美元，股利覆蓋也非常充足。所以基本上，你們如何思考資本配置？我知道你們最近償還了一些債務。所以整體來看，你們是否會在併購方面更積極？或者你們如何看待管理目前所產生的現金流？

Yes. So I think as we've indicated previously, we plan to sustain our distribution at the $0.70 a quarter. Secondly, we will provide the capital necessary to maintain our cooperations plus the growth projects that we previously announced. So CapEx will be what is guided, and maybe a little lower. But right -- within those ranges, maybe at the low end, I can't precisely tell it's all timing. The commitments are pretty much there.

是的。我想如同我們先前所指出的，我們計畫維持每季 0.70 美元的配息。第二，我們會提供維持我們營運所需的資本，加上我們先前宣布的成長專案。因此，資本支出（CapEx）會落在指引範圍內，甚至可能略低一些。不過——就在那些區間內，可能偏向低端；我無法精準說明，因為都取決於時點。但承諾基本上都已到位。

Oil and gas, we talk to. And so the balance then gets to debt paydown, which Cary mentioned is poorly in his prepared remarks that we will look to continue to pay off those senior notes. And then we've got these investment opportunities, primarily in the new venture space that we are looking at. And if you go back to a year ago, I talked in terms of 2 different ways we could look at investments. One was to how we would think about just good investments that would give us visibility into various areas that we could determine how to make investments in those assets that could actually be long-term cash flow vehicles. And that fifth vertical was in those type of asset investments.

油氣方面，我們也有在接觸。因此，剩下的部分就會用於償債；正如 Cary 在其事先準備的發言中提到的，我們將持續償還那些優先票據。接著，我們也有一些投資機會，主要是在新事業（new venture）領域，我們正在評估。如果回到一年前，我談到我們看待投資有兩種不同方式：其一是我們如何看待能帶來良好回報、並讓我們對各個領域有能見度的投資，藉此判斷如何在那些資產上進一步投資，使其成為長期現金流載體。而第五個垂直領域就是這類資產投資。

I think we sort of matured based off of the 2 years of an investment philosophy, I think we've zeroed in with the experience we've had to focus on some businesses that we -- yes, we still may invest in a minority position in some growth businesses. But when we do that, it's definitely going to be in conjunction with the opportunity to invest more alongside those particular businesses or those types of industries where we can, in fact, start building businesses for the long term.

我認為，基於兩年的投資理念，我們已逐步成熟；憑藉過去的經驗，我們已更聚焦於一些業務——是的，我們仍可能以少數股權投資某些成長型企業。但當我們這麼做時，一定會搭配未來能在那些特定企業、或那些產業類型上加碼投資的機會，讓我們確實能開始打造長期的事業。

And we are, again, focused in the battery area. We just think that with the increased demand in electricity that battery storage, both for the electrical sector as well as the industrial sector is going to be an area of huge demand. So we're focused on that area and seeing how we can participate in that. The investment sizes we typically made are anywhere from $25 million to $50 million per investment to make it sizable enough that we see opportunity to make a good return and have those strategic relationships but not so much that we are ending up focusing on 1 or 2 investments, but we'll have the opportunity to have several so that we've got opportunities to be able to grow our company over the next 5 to 10 years.

而且我們再次聚焦在電池領域。我們認為，隨著用電需求增加，電池儲能——不論是電力部門或工業部門——都將是需求極大的領域。因此我們專注在這一塊，並觀察我們能如何參與。我們通常每筆投資規模約在 2,500 萬到 5,000 萬美元之間，足夠大到讓我們看到取得良好報酬的機會並建立策略關係，但又不至於大到讓我們只聚焦在 1、2 筆投資；我們希望能有多筆投資機會，讓公司在未來 5 到 10 年有成長空間。

So we're -- as I mentioned in my prepared comments, we're encouraged by what we're seeing. And I think, and hopefully, by the next earnings call, we'll be able to give you more specifics on specific investments that hopefully will be successful in making some commitments by that time frame, but we're not in a position to talk about those right now.

所以——如我在事先準備的評論中提到的，我們對目前看到的情況感到鼓舞。我想也希望在下一次財報電話會議時，我們能提供更具體的資訊，談到一些特定投資；希望在那個時間點前能成功做出一些承諾，但目前我們還不適合談這些。

Well, that's very helpful. I really do appreciate it.

好的，這非常有幫助。我真的很感謝。

The other thing I would just say that we're looking -- we're hoping to find some opportunities to invest in businesses that will allow us to bring on more debt capacity as well. So these would be cash flow generating type businesses so that it would allow for additional debt capacity additions as we look into 2024.

另外我想補充的是，我們也希望找到一些投資機會，能讓我們帶來更多的舉債能力。因此這些會是能產生現金流的業務類型，讓我們在展望 2024 年時，能夠增加額外的債務承載能力。

Our next question is from Dave Storms with Stonegate Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stonegate Capital Markets 的 Dave Storms。

Just want to start, you mentioned in your prepared remarks on some cost savings measures that you've started. Just wondering if you could give us a little more color on what that looks like?

我想先從你在事先準備的發言中提到的一些已開始推動的成本節省措施談起。想請問你能否再多提供一些細節，說明那大概會是什麼樣子？

Everything goes back to efficiency. That's the main valuation trying to determine where the most efficient mine plan is, obviously, everything needs to try to staff ourselves to be able to operate at full capacity for what we've got invested by cutting back some of that production. We have to decide how we do allocate that. But our guys are focused on that. I think supply chain is an area that last year, we were needing to buy more supply than we actually needed, just isn't sure that we had materials and supplies. I think that has allowed us to -- with the years -- over the last year, the supply chain has improved, so that's allowed for some small reduction in expenses but it really just gets back to productivity. In large part, what we're seeing in the second quarter was just the productivity at Tunnel Ridge by not having the longwall moves. So productivity is the key to cost in most cases, and that's definitely true for us.

一切都回到效率，這是核心。主要是評估最有效率的礦山計畫；顯然，所有事情都需要讓我們的人力配置能支撐在既有投資下的滿載運轉，同時透過削減部分產量來達成。我們必須決定如何分配。但我們的團隊正專注在這上面。我認為供應鏈是一個領域：去年我們需要採購比實際需求更多的物資，因為不確定材料與備品是否充足。我想這讓我們——隨著過去一年供應鏈改善——得以在費用上做一些小幅下降，但本質上還是回到生產力。第二季我們看到的很大一部分，就是 Tunnel Ridge 因為沒有長壁（longwall）搬遷而帶來的生產力提升。所以在多數情況下，生產力是成本的關鍵，對我們而言也確實如此。

Very helpful. And you just kind of touched on it with staffing at full capacity. It sounds like you're reallocating some of your ships. Is there any threat of losing labor, especially in this tight labor market as you move people around?

非常有幫助。你剛剛也提到滿載人力配置。聽起來你們正在重新調配部分班次。考量目前勞動市場緊俏，當你們調動人員時，是否有流失勞力的風險？

We have had a little transit or a little bit -- some people that have left. But no, we're trying to maintain our head count. And so far, we've been able to do that. And again, that's why we're repositioning to some areas. It may not be as productive in the short term, but will allow us to be more productive once we get through a couple of these construction projects. We've got the one at River View and the extended longwall move at Mettiki is another example where we're moving into a new area and the new area that we're moving into have longer panels.

我們確實有一點流動，或是——有些人離開了。但不會，我們正努力維持人力編制；到目前為止也做到了。而且再次強調，這也是為什麼我們要把人力重新部署到某些區域。短期內可能沒那麼有生產力，但能讓我們在完成幾個建設專案後更具生產力。我們在 River View 有一個專案，而 Mettiki 的延長長壁搬遷也是另一個例子：我們正移往新區域，而我們要進入的新區域有更長的工作面（panel）。

So our development has been needing to catch up with the length of the panels that we're moving to. And we could have designed that differently. But given where the market is, we felt like this was a great opportunity just to go ahead and go for the longer panels and so that will reduce our production in the short term, but positioning ourselves for next year should give us a lower cost future there than what we would otherwise have with a shorter panel.

因此，我們的掘進開發需要追上我們要轉入的較長工作面長度。我們本來可以用不同方式設計。但考量市場狀況，我們覺得這是個很好的機會，乾脆直接採用更長的工作面；這會在短期內降低產量，但為明年做定位，應能帶來比採用較短工作面更低的未來成本。

So -- but from a headcount basis, we're maintaining our headcount, but it is targeted more to the 36 million ton production level compared to -- when we started the year, we were targeting 38 million. Last quarter, we went to 37 million, now we're 36 million. So we're -- labor is still tight, but we're able to maintain at this level and the attrition has slowed down over the last 3 months or so to where we can -- we feel like we can maintain this level.

所以——就人力編制而言，我們維持人數，但目標更偏向 3,600 萬噸的產量水準；相較之下，年初我們目標是 3,800 萬噸，上季調到 3,700 萬噸，現在是 3,600 萬噸。所以——勞力仍然吃緊，但我們能在這個水準維持，而且過去大約 3 個月的離職率已放緩，讓我們——我們覺得可以維持在這個水準。

That's great color. One more, if I could. Just any comments you have around the new customer acquisition environment, given that coal prices have started to stabilize a little bit, inflation started to moderate. Is any of that helping you drive new customer acquisitions?

這些說明很有幫助。我再問一個，如果可以的話。關於新客戶開發環境，你有什麼看法？考量煤價開始稍微趨於穩定、通膨也開始降溫，這些是否有助於你們推動新客戶開發？

I wouldn't say new customer acquisitions. I mean we've been in this business quite a while. So we sell to most of those that want to be around for the next 15 years, which is what we've targeted. We have had some conversations where we're hopeful that we could pick up some market share. But we'll have more to know as we go through these solicitations whether that happens or not. But as I mentioned earlier, we're very confident that we will be able to maintain at this level if not grow our domestic book beyond the 36 -- beyond 30 million, and it allows us to stay at the 36 million. And then that -- then we'll have to decide whether we want to pull back the international side or we'll try to grow production a little bit. But right now, I'd say domestically, we're targeted on the 30 million a year run rate for the next 5 years or so and hope that we can sustain that and believe we can.

我不會說是新客戶開發。我的意思是，我們在這個產業已經很久了，所以我們把煤賣給大多數那些希望未來 15 年仍會存在的客戶，這也是我們的目標。我們確實有一些對話，並希望能取得一些市占率。但要等我們走完這些招標流程後，才會更清楚是否會發生。不過如我先前提到的，我們非常有信心能維持在這個水準，甚至把國內合約量（domestic book）提升到 3,600 萬——超過 3,000 萬，並讓我們維持在 3,600 萬噸。接著——我們就得決定是否要縮減國際市場那一端，或是嘗試把產量再提高一些。但目前我會說，在國內市場方面，我們的目標是未來約 5 年維持每年 3,000 萬噸的運行水準（run rate），並希望能持續，也相信我們做得到。

Our next question is from David Marsh with Singular Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Singular Research 的 David Marsh。

Just wanted to touch on the notes real quickly. Are they continuously callable at this point at par? And what are your -- what are the parameters around calling those in? Is it 30 days' notice?

我想很快帶到一下這些票據。目前它們是否可以隨時以面值持續被提前贖回？另外，你們對於提前贖回的條件參數是什麼？是需要提前 30 天通知嗎？

Yes. To answer your question on that, David, yes, they are callable at par any time. And like you said, it's just a 30-day -- generally a 30-day notice period that we are required to provide in order to call those.

是的。David，回答你這個問題，是的，它們在任何時間都可以按面值被贖回。正如你所說，我們一般需要提供 30 天的通知期，才能進行贖回。

Got it. And so obviously, interest expense was down a good bit in the quarter. I suspect in part due to the partial call, should we expect that to continue to decline as you continue to work those off? And can you kind of put some -- maybe put some brackets around that in terms of how quickly that continues to come down?

了解。那麼很明顯，本季利息費用下降了不少。我猜部分原因是因為部分贖回；隨著你們持續把這些票據逐步處理掉，我們是否應該預期利息費用會繼續下降？你能否大致給個區間，說明它會以多快的速度繼續下降？

I think as it relates to the senior notes, the current expectation, we'll continue to call those, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks on a consistent basis, the current thought process right now is to do something similar to what we have been doing here in the most recent quarter. That's obviously up for conversation each time that we make that decision to call. But I think a consistent quarterly call would be a good assumption to make.

我想就優先票據而言，目前的預期是我們會持續贖回它們；正如我在事先準備的發言中提到的，我們會以一致的方式進行。當前的想法是做出與最近一季類似的安排。當然，每次做出贖回決策時都可以再討論。但我認為，把「每季固定贖回一次」作為假設是合理的。

Okay. Yes, that's really helpful. And that's for use of cash flow. I definitely think in this environment, it's awfully tough to consider refinancing themselves. Just shifting gears a little bit. One thing I noticed is that on the oil and gas side, your BOE sold has really grown really nicely, very nicely year-over-year. I mean it's up 50% year-over-year. So clearly, these investments that you guys have been making are paying dividends. And obviously, oil is starting to climb back up a little bit in the 80s here. I know that the mix for you guys is a little bit gassy, but could you just talk about directionally, how does that change the game for you guys in terms of evaluating acquisition opportunities as well just as oil continues to creep back up? And what do we need to see on the nat gas side for you guys to get kind of better price realizations maybe closer to the back half of last year type levels?

好的。是的，這非常有幫助。這也是現金流的運用。我確實認為在這種環境下，要考慮再融資本身非常困難。稍微換個話題。我注意到在油氣業務方面，你們的 BOE 銷售量年增表現非常亮眼，年增 50%。很明顯，你們所做的投資正在帶來回報。而且油價也開始回升到 80 多美元。我知道你們的產品組合偏天然氣一些，但你能否從方向性角度談談：隨著油價持續回升，這會如何改變你們在評估併購機會時的策略？另外，在天然氣方面，我們需要看到什麼條件，才能讓你們的實現價格更好，可能更接近去年下半年那種水準？

I think on the -- right now, the guidance we've given in this release did not factor in the most recent uptick in oil prices. I think that as we look at acquisitions, we continue to be focused in the Permian. And as we think about the Delaware is a little bit more gassy, but I think most of our acquisitions most recently have been more oil-based. We still have our mid composition, but we're still bullish on gas too. But I think our focus on royalty side will continue to be consistent with what we've been doing and really target the Permian primarily, but we will look at all basins and all opportunities. So I think that we have not changed our underwriting standards, and we are seeing some good deal flow. So both for small and direct investments and there's still some packages out there that we'll continue to evaluate.

我想就目前而言，我們在本次新聞稿中給出的指引並未納入最近油價上漲的影響。就併購來看，我們仍然專注於二疊紀盆地（Permian）。在我們思考德拉瓦（Delaware）區塊時，它確實偏天然氣一些，但我認為我們最近的大多數收購更偏向原油。我們仍然有中間組成（mid composition），而且我們對天然氣也仍然看多。不過我認為，我們在權利金（royalty）端的重點會延續我們一直以來的做法，主要鎖定二疊紀盆地，但我們也會看所有盆地與所有機會。所以我認為我們的承作（underwriting）標準沒有改變，而且我們也看到一些不錯的案源。不論是小型、直接投資，市場上仍有一些資產包（packages）我們會持續評估。

Our next question is from Arthur Calavritinos with ANC Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 ANC Capital 的 Arthur Calavritinos。

Just a couple of things. On the financing question, Cary, are there any minimum bite sizes when you guys call the senior notes...

有幾點想問。關於融資的問題，Cary，你們在贖回優先票據時，是否有任何最低贖回金額（minimum bite size）……

No, they're -- no, there's no minimum bite sizes. It's really up to us whenever we call them to designate what amount that we are calling. They're callable on a pro rata basis. So whatever amount we designate it's pro rata basis back out to the holders of those notes. But if we wanted to do $10 million, we could do that, we just opted to do $50 million in this last quarter.

沒有——沒有最低贖回金額。每次我們要贖回時，完全由我們決定要指定贖回的金額。它們是按比例（pro rata）可贖回的，所以我們指定的任何金額，都會按比例分配回到這些票據的持有人。但如果我們想做 1,000 萬美元也可以；只是我們在上一季選擇做 5,000 萬美元。

And it probably depends on how you're feeling where the cash is going to be at the end of the month or the quarter, whatever, right, how you decide this? It seems like you're matching it with your cash flows, like the way I look at it? Or I mean, would that...

那這可能取決於你們對月底或季底現金水位的感受，對吧？也就是你們如何做這個決定？看起來你們是在把它和現金流做匹配；至少我看起來是這樣？或者說，會不會……

That's right. That's correct.

沒錯。正確。

And future opportunities for cash flow.

以及未來的現金流機會。

Got it. All right. And then the second thing away from the finance question is, I get the Elon Musk thing this morning on the PG&E conference. And the question was when he was talking about electric demand, a few weeks ago, like the auto sales were like 3-point -- I'm sorry, 7% like were electric cars. And I'm starting to think like at what point do we get with the electric cars in this country where we can almost point to this is how much BTU or how much coal demand is feeding the fleet? I mean it seems it's kind of early, but it's -- but I was shocked at that 7% number for new car sales. Any color on that? You could shed where we go because it's almost displacement, right? We're displacing unleaded gasoline with coal to power transportation, but it's early days. But any color on that would be great.

了解。好。那第二點，先不談融資問題。我今天早上在 PG&E 的會議上聽到 Elon Musk 的那段內容。他在談電力需求時提到，幾週前新車銷售中大概有 3 點——抱歉，是 7% 是電動車。我開始在想，在這個國家電動車發展到什麼程度時，我們幾乎可以指出：有多少 BTU 或多少煤炭需求是在支撐這個車隊？我意思是，現在看起來還早，但——但我對新車銷售 7% 這個數字很震驚。對此你們有什麼看法嗎？你能否分享一些觀點，說我們會走向哪裡？因為這幾乎是一種替代，對吧？我們是在用煤電來替代無鉛汽油以驅動交通運輸，但現在還是早期。若能提供一些看法就太好了。

Yes. So with the EV space, I mean, the big issue that most -- like 2 or 3 different factors. One is just the cost of the EV and what we have seen is most of the OEMs have reduced their pricing by $10,000 per vehicle or so to try to stimulate the demand and really try to get market share because you're starting to see many more models come out. The second factor gets into the -- well they call a range anxiety. And so there's been a couple of announcements that have come out since our last call. One is with Tesla, where they're going to open their network and have partnered with GM and Ford, I believe, and that's going to roll out over the next 2 years. So that's not immediate, but it's going to roll out over '24, '25 and be fully operational, I think, by '26.

是的。就電動車（EV）領域而言，主要問題大概有 2 到 3 個因素。第一是 EV 的成本。我們看到多數 OEM 已把每輛車的定價下調約 1 萬美元，以刺激需求並努力取得市占，因為你開始看到更多車型推出。第二個因素是——他們稱之為「里程焦慮」（range anxiety）。自從我們上次電話會議以來，有幾項公告。其一是特斯拉（Tesla）將開放其充電網路，並且我相信已與 GM 和 Ford 合作，這會在未來兩年內逐步推出。這不是立刻發生，但會在 2024、2025 年推進，並且我認為到 2026 年會全面運作。

Then you've seen another announcement by numerous other manufacturers from the European manufacturers primarily coming together and talking about building out their own network. On top of the $5 billion NEVI program, that the government has put in place, and we're starting to see finally the States starting to go out and bid for those projects.

接著你也看到另一項公告：許多其他製造商——主要是歐洲製造商——正在聯合起來，討論建立他們自己的網路。再加上政府推出的 50 億美元 NEVI 計畫，我們也終於開始看到各州開始對這些專案進行招標。

So I would say over the next 1.5 years to 2 years, you're going to see a pretty robust network of charging stations on the highways that should give customers safe feeling on the ability to have range anxiety eliminated to where it would support the purchases of more I think the commitment not only by the OEMs, but all these governors around the battery belt to build these out. The third factor I didn't mention is back to the tax credit, the $7,500 tax credit per vehicle, which also then requires a certain percentage of the auto to be manufactured in America and/or the battery materials being sourced or -- or some type of assembly in America, and that's an area that is constantly being discussed.

所以我會說，在接下來 1.5 年到 2 年內，你會在高速公路上看到相當健全的充電站網路，這應該能讓消費者更安心，並消除里程焦慮，從而支持更多購買。我認為不只是 OEM 的承諾，還有電池帶（battery belt）各州州長推動建設的承諾。第三個因素我剛才沒提到，是回到稅收抵免：每輛車 7,500 美元的稅收抵免；同時也要求一定比例的車輛必須在美國製造，且／或電池材料需在美國採購，或——或某種形式的組裝在美國完成，而這個領域一直在持續討論。

I think that this administration has when they've adopted regulations expand that opportunity to make sure the $7,500 credits are available. And so the price point seems to be competitive with the combustion engine. How fast that goes is anybody's guess. But I think when we look at our new ventures area and we look at investments in the battery space, all these manufacturing facilities are talking about at least 50 megawatts sometimes 250 megawatts, so somewhere in between for every manufacturing facility that you hear announced. And that's a significant load compared to historic when business economic development officers are out looking for projects to move to states. In the past, 5,000 megawatts would be high, much less 50 to 100 to 200.

我認為本屆政府在採納相關法規時，擴大了這個機會，以確保 7,500 美元的抵免可用。因此在價格點上，看起來已能與內燃機競爭。至於發展速度有多快，誰也說不準。但當我們看我們的新事業領域，並看我們在電池領域的投資時，所有這些製造設施都在談至少 50 兆瓦，有時甚至 250 兆瓦——也就是每座你聽到宣布的製造設施，大概落在這個區間。相較於過去，這是非常顯著的負載；以往各州的商業經濟發展官員在尋找遷入專案時，5,000 兆瓦都算很高了，更不用說 50、100 或 200。

So we're looking at major sinks. And not only are they large loads, but they want to be continuous. They do not want to have interruptible rates. And we're starting to see capacity concerns, and that's why you hear FERC and all these guys saying we better pay attention to the speed of this transition because you can't continue to close plants and build plants and add no new capacity. So I think that demand for electricity has definitely gone up. I think, as I said earlier, it seems to be underappreciated at what that speed is going to be.

所以我們正在看主要的用電大戶。而且它們不僅是大型負載，還希望是連續性的負載；它們不希望採用可中斷電價。我們也開始看到容量方面的疑慮，這就是為什麼你會聽到 FERC 和這些人說，我們最好關注這個轉型的速度，因為你不能一邊持續關閉電廠、一邊建電廠，卻不新增任何新容量。所以我認為電力需求確實已經上升了。我想，如同我先前所說，大家似乎低估了這個速度會有多快。

And back to your question of when can we actually see that and see that roll through, I think it will be within the next 2 years. In my conversations, when I go out and speak to people, I've been saying to everybody, just think about how many people have a graduation in their family this year, whether it's college or high school or kindergarten or whatever and just say, how fast did that 4 years go by. It goes by in a flash. So we, as public policymakers and investors, we have to recognize we're making decisions right now that are going to determine the answer to your question.

回到你問的，我們什麼時候才能真正看到這件事並看到它逐步反映出來，我認為會在未來 2 年內。在我的交流中，當我出去跟人們談時，我一直跟大家說：想想今年你家裡有多少人要畢業，不管是大學、高中、幼兒園或其他，然後想想那 4 年過得有多快。一下子就過去了。所以我們作為公共政策制定者和投資人，必須認知到：我們現在正在做的決策，將決定你這個問題的答案。

And so we don't have time just to delay and just think business as usual. We have to really gear up in anticipation of this significant growth in electricity demand. And therefore, it's time to -- for policymakers to come to the table and realize that if we're going to have reliable, low-cost energy, we can't do business as usual. We have to factor in this demand growth, and that's why I have confidence that they're going to start thinking in terms of deferring some of these closures because if we're going to meet that demand, you have to have electricity. It's bottom line. If Biden wants to electrify America, he's got to have electricity to do it. And we all know that the renewables are just -- you cannot look at a renewable installation that's adding capacity because we still don't have battery storage to a level that is dependable. So you really having to look at base load plants, and those are fossil plants in your nuclear fleet.

因此我們沒有時間只是拖延、只是照常營運。我們必須真正加速準備，以因應電力需求的顯著成長。因此，現在是——政策制定者該坐到桌前並意識到：如果我們要有可靠、低成本的能源，就不能照舊。我們必須把這個需求成長納入考量，這也是為什麼我有信心他們會開始以延後部分關閉為思考方向，因為如果我們要滿足那個需求，你就必須有電力。這是底線。如果拜登想讓美國電氣化，他就得有電力來做到。而我們都知道，再生能源——你不能把一個再生能源裝置視為在增加可用容量，因為我們的電池儲能仍未達到可靠的程度。所以你真的必須看基載電廠，而那就是化石燃料電廠以及你的核能機組。

So it's hard to answer your question precisely. But directionally, I would say within 2 years, you'll have a better idea of exactly what that demand load is for -- I'm focused on the Eastern United States. So for the areas where we market, I think we'll have a very good idea about 2025 exactly what that demand load needs to be and therefore, what capacity we have to have to provide for reliable energy.

所以要精準回答你的問題很難。但就方向而言，我會說在 2 年內，你會更清楚到底那個需求負載是什麼——我關注的是美國東部。因此，就我們行銷的區域而言，我認為到 2025 年左右，我們會非常清楚那個需求負載需要是多少，進而知道我們必須具備多少容量，才能提供可靠的能源。

Yes. And it's interesting. A couple of weeks ago, Barents who had a cover story in Siemens, the big German equivalent of GE, having enormous problems optimizing wind power, wind mills. And these are great engineers. So the wind may fall far short of what's like what's boiler plate on a wind mill to deliver electrons. So just -- it seems like it's happening in slow motion, when we find out. So all right. And then on the Permian, there's a large royalty company, public one. I don't know they're having a proxy fight, whatever, right? So I don't know if they're getting delayed in buying stuff. But there -- there are more opportunities than normal for these oil and gas royalties in the Permian because it seems like there's some dysfunction in some of the M&A going on?

是的。而且很有意思。幾週前，Barents 在西門子（Siemens）做了封面報導；西門子是德國的大型企業，相當於 GE，卻在最佳化風力發電、風機方面遇到巨大的問題。而這些都是很棒的工程師。所以風電可能遠遠達不到風機規格書上所寫、能夠輸送電子（電力）的水準。所以——看起來像是慢動作在發生，等我們發現時。好吧。然後談到二疊紀（Permian），那裡有一家大型權利金公司，是上市公司。我不知道他們在打代理權之爭還是什麼，對吧？所以我不知道他們是不是因此在收購上被延誤。但——對於二疊紀的這些油氣權利金而言，機會似乎比平常更多，因為看起來正在進行的一些併購（M&A）有些失靈或不順？

I would not say there's any more than normal. So going -- starting last year, as you saw some of the price decline it got sticky. Nobody was wanting to sell at those prices. But then after you start adjusting to what might be the new normal. So there's adequate deal flow for us to maintain our policy to think in terms of investing $100 million a year. That's the way I would look at it from our lens and our perspective without modifying our underwriting standards. So as one of the earlier callers said, I mean, our returns have been very good. We've been able to hit our targets as we think about the investments we've made. And I think our guys have done a very good job of trying to assess the pace of drilling.

我不會說比平常更多。所以——從去年開始，當你看到價格下跌時，市場變得黏著；沒有人願意在那樣的價格出售。但之後你開始調整，接受那可能是新的常態。因此，對我們而言有足夠的交易流量，讓我們維持既定方針，以每年投資 1 億美元的角度來思考。從我們的視角與立場來看，我會這樣解讀，而且不需要調整我們的承銷標準。正如先前某位來電者所說，我們的報酬一直非常好。回頭看我們所做的投資，我們能夠達成目標。我也認為我們的團隊在評估鑽井節奏方面做得非常好。

And you can read a lot of stuff, but I think in the Permian, they're going to continue producing at the same level for several years to come. So as a royalty owner, we feel like it's a great investment for us to be complementary for our cash flow purposes as we look to where we want to be in 2030.

你可以讀到很多資料，但我認為在二疊紀，他們未來幾年仍會維持同樣的產量水準。所以作為權利金持有人，我們覺得這對我們而言是一項很好的投資，能在現金流用途上形成互補，因為我們在思考 2030 年希望達到的位置。

And you're the right size. You're not like an Exxon where you're like too big where it doesn't make a difference. And you're not too small. You got a good size then, right? I mean, go into right?

而且你們的規模剛剛好。你們不像埃克森（Exxon）那樣大到做了也沒差；你們也不會太小。你們規模很好，對吧？我是說，正好切入？

We think so. Yes.

我們是這麼認為的。是的。

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Cary for closing comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想把電話會議交回給 Cary 作結語。

Thank you, operator. And to everyone on the call, we appreciate your time this morning as well and also your continued support and interest in Alliance. Our next call to discuss our third quarter 2023 financial and operating results is currently expected to occur in late October, and we hope everyone will join us again at that time. This concludes our call for the day. Thank you.

謝謝你，接線員。也謝謝所有參與電話會議的各位，我們感謝大家今天早上的時間，也感謝各位持續對 Alliance 的支持與關注。我們下一次討論 2023 年第三季財務與營運結果的電話會議，目前預計在 10 月下旬舉行，我們希望屆時大家能再次加入。本日電話會議到此結束。謝謝。

Thank you. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.

謝謝。您現在可以掛斷電話線，並感謝您的參與。