Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

各位好，歡迎參加 Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. 2022 年第四季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Brian Cantrell, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Thank you, sir. Please go ahead.

現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人，Brian Cantrell 先生，資深副總裁兼財務長。謝謝您，先生。請開始。

Thank you, Donna, and welcome, everyone. Earlier this morning, Alliance Resource Partners released its fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial and operating results, and we'll now discuss those results as well as our perspective on current market conditions and outlook for 2023. Following our prepared remarks, we'll open the call to answer your questions. Before beginning, a reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements, subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions contained in our filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are also reflected in this morning's press release.

謝謝你，Donna，也歡迎各位。今天稍早，Alliance Resource Partners 公布了 2022 年第四季及全年財務與營運結果；接下來我們將討論這些結果，以及我們對目前市場狀況與 2023 年展望的看法。在我們的準備發言之後，將開放電話回答各位的提問。在開始之前提醒，今天部分發言可能包含前瞻性陳述，並受我們不時向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交之文件中所載的各項風險、不確定性與假設所影響，亦反映於今天早上的新聞稿中。

While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected. And in providing these remarks, the partnership has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by law to do so.

雖然這些前瞻性陳述係基於我們目前可得之資訊，但若一項或多項風險或不確定性成真，或我們的基本假設證明不正確，實際結果可能與我們所預測或預期者有重大差異。此外，除非法律要求，合夥企業並無義務因新資訊、未來事件或其他原因而公開更新或修訂任何前瞻性陳述。

And finally, we'll also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures today. Definitions and reconciliations of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures, are contained at the end of ARLP's press release, which has been posted on our website and furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K. Now with the required preliminaries out of the way, I'll begin with a review of our record results for '22 fourth quarter and full year, and then turn the call over to Joe Craft, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, for his comments.

最後，我們今天也將討論若干非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標與最直接可比之 GAAP 財務衡量指標之差異定義與調節表，載於 ARLP 新聞稿末尾；該新聞稿已張貼於我們網站，並以 Form 8-K 提交給 SEC。完成必要的前置說明後，我將先回顧我們 2022 年第四季與全年創紀錄的結果，接著把電話交給我們的董事長、總裁兼執行長 Joe Craft，請他發表評論。

While 2022 was certainly an interesting year with supply chain difficulties, transportation challenges and inflationary pressures driving operating costs significantly higher, while Russia's invasion of Ukraine impacting global commodity flows, post-pandemic demand increases, and global governmental policies led commodity prices to historically high levels. The Alliance team responded to this turbulent market exceptionally well, achieving record full year 2022 revenues, net income and EBITDA and ending the year, our results for the 2022 quarter were also strong as the ARLP delivered record coal sales and oil and gas royalty revenues and significantly higher net income and EBITDA compared to the 2021 quarter.

2022 年確實是相當值得關注的一年：供應鏈困難、運輸挑戰與通膨壓力使營運成本顯著上升；同時，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭影響全球大宗商品流向、疫情後需求增加，以及各國政府政策，推動大宗商品價格升至歷史高位。Alliance 團隊對這個動盪市場的應對表現極為出色，創下 2022 全年營收、淨利與 EBITDA 的紀錄並以強勁表現結束年度；此外，我們 2022 年第四季的結果也同樣亮眼，ARLP 創下煤炭銷售與油氣權利金收入新高，且淨利與 EBITDA 相較 2021 年同期大幅提升。

Looking more closely at the 2022 quarter compared to the 2021 quarter, wholesales volumes increased 2.3%, while royalty volumes for oil and gas minerals increased 42.6% as production on ARLP's legacy properties outperformed our expectations and combined with the new volumes from the previously announced minerals acquisitions in September and October of 2022. Coal production declined 3.5% from the 2021 quarter primarily due to an unplanned outage at our Hamilton longwall mine that I will discuss in more detail in a moment.

更仔細比較 2022 年第四季與 2021 年第四季，煤炭銷售量增加 2.3%，而油氣礦權的權利金產量增加 42.6%，主要因 ARLP 既有資產的產量表現優於預期，並結合我們於 2022 年 9 月與 10 月先前公告之礦權收購所帶來的新產量。煤炭產量較 2021 年同期下降 3.5%，主要是因 Hamilton 長壁礦場發生非計畫性停工，我稍後會更詳細說明。

As a result, our coal royalty funds -- tons, excuse me, fell 8.5%. We saw higher commodity prices during the 2022 quarter with coal sales price per ton increasing 50.1%, oil and gas prices climbing 7.2% per BOE and coal royalty revenue up 1.5% per ton all as compared to the 2021 quarter.

因此，我們的煤炭權利金——噸數，抱歉——下降 8.5%。在 2022 年第四季，我們看到更高的大宗商品價格：煤炭每噸銷售價格上升 50.1%，油氣價格每 BOE 上升 7.2%，煤炭權利金收入每噸上升 1.5%，以上皆相較 2021 年同期。

For the 2022 quarter, segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold was $40.71, up 20.2% versus the 2021 quarter and on a full year basis was $36.73 per ton, up 21.5% versus 2021. Our increased operating expenses in the 2022 quarter reflected a number of factors including higher sales-related expenses as a result of higher price realizations and coal sales volumes, inflationary pressures, particularly on wages, raw materials, petroleum-related supplies such as resins and lubricants, higher freight costs passed on to us from our suppliers as well as $6.5 million of noncash accruals for various long-term liabilities such as workers' compensation and asset retirement obligations at our nonoperating mines.

2022 年第四季，分部調整後 EBITDA 每售出一噸的費用為 40.71 美元，較 2021 年同期上升 20.2%；以全年計算為每噸 36.73 美元，較 2021 年上升 21.5%。2022 年第四季營運費用增加反映多項因素，包括因價格實現提高與煤炭銷售量增加而帶動的較高銷售相關費用、通膨壓力（尤其是薪資）、原物料、石油相關耗材（如樹脂與潤滑油）、供應商轉嫁給我們的較高運費，以及 650 萬美元的非現金應計費用，係針對各項長期負債（例如工傷補償與非營運礦場的資產除役義務）。

Also specific to the 2022 quarter, the thermal event at our Hamilton Mine resulted in an unexpected outage that lasted approximately 4 weeks. The responses by our mine rescue team members and our miners were exceptional. Our personnel were kept safe with no injuries occurring, no equipment was damaged and we work closely with federal and state regulators, mining operations allowed to return to normal production levels in December 2022.

另外，2022 年第四季特有的情況是 Hamilton 礦場的熱事件導致一段非預期停工，持續約 4 週。我們礦山救援隊成員與礦工的應對表現非常出色；人員皆安全無虞、未發生任何傷害，設備亦未受損。我們並與聯邦及州監管機構密切合作，使採礦作業得以於 2022 年 12 月恢復至正常生產水準。

However, we did incur approximately $5.8 million of third-party expenses directly related to the event and we lost approximately 500,000 tons of production during the quarter. Absent certain noncash accruals and third-party expenses associated with the Hamilton event, Illinois Basin segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton for the 2022 quarter would have been more in-line with the percentage increase we experienced in the Appalachia region for the 2022 quarter.

然而，我們確實發生約 580 萬美元與該事件直接相關的第三方費用，且本季約損失 50 萬噸產量。若排除若干非現金應計項目與 Hamilton 事件相關的第三方費用，伊利諾伊盆地分部在 2022 年第四季的調整後 EBITDA 每噸費用，將更接近我們在 2022 年第四季於阿帕拉契亞地區所經歷的百分比增幅。

Our net income and EBITDA rose sharply in the 2022 quarter, increasing 313.8% and 125.7%, respectively, over the 2021 quarter. These increases reflect higher sales volumes and price realizations, which more than offset the inflationary pressures and other impacts on costs that I previously described. 2022 full year results were also significantly higher compared to 2021. Coal sales and production volumes increased 3.3 million tons, up 10.3% and 10.2%, respectively, driving year-over-year coal sales revenues higher by $715.3 million or 51.6%. Higher coal sales revenues, combined with a $63.4 million increase in oil and gas royalty revenue drove ARLP's 2022 total revenues up by 53.3% to a record $2.4 billion.

2022 年第四季，我們的淨利與 EBITDA 大幅上升，分別較 2021 年同期增加 313.8% 與 125.7%。這些增幅反映較高的銷售量與價格實現，足以抵銷我先前所述的通膨壓力與其他成本影響。2022 全年結果相較 2021 年亦顯著提升。煤炭銷售量與產量分別增加 330 萬噸，年增 10.3% 與 10.2%，帶動煤炭銷售收入年增 7.153 億美元或 51.6%。更高的煤炭銷售收入，加上油氣權利金收入增加 6,340 萬美元，使 ARLP 2022 年總營收年增 53.3% 至創紀錄的 24 億美元。

Net income increased 224% to $577.2 million and EBITDA rose 96.3% to $940.2 million, both record results. During 2022, Alliance generated $604.2 million of free cash flow before growth investments, returned $196.3 million to unitholders through quarterly cash distributions while reporting coverage of 3.45x for the year, and we reduced debt and financing leases by $16.9 million. Exiting 2022, our balance sheet remained strong. ARLP's total leverage ratio improved to 4.5x trailing adjusted EBITDA and with $296 million of cash and cash equivalents, our net leverage decreased to an all-time low of 0.14x. Our liquidity also increased to $762.8 million at year-end.

淨利增加 224% 至 5.772 億美元，EBITDA 上升 96.3% 至 9.402 億美元，兩者皆為創紀錄表現。2022 年，Alliance 在成長投資前產生 6.042 億美元自由現金流，透過季度現金分配向單位持有人返還 1.963 億美元，全年分配覆蓋倍數為 3.45 倍，並將債務與融資租賃減少 1,690 萬美元。2022 年底，我們的資產負債表仍然強健。ARLP 的總槓桿比率改善至追蹤期調整後 EBITDA 的 4.5 倍；在持有 2.96 億美元現金及約當現金的情況下，我們的淨槓桿降至歷史新低 0.14 倍。年末流動性亦提升至 7.628 億美元。

As we disclosed earlier this month, we successfully closed our new revolving credit facility and term loan A financing. This transaction was very well received in the market with oversubscribed demand, reflecting the positive fundamentals of our business and the strength of our balance sheet.

如同我們本月稍早所揭露，我們已成功完成新的循環信用額度與 A 期定期貸款融資。本次交易在市場上反應非常熱烈，認購需求超額，反映我們業務的正向基本面以及資產負債表的強勁實力。

Our new $425 million revolving credit facility positions us well to manage ARLP's day-to-day operations. While the $75 million term loan proceeds allow us to term out the capital associated with infrastructure projects, as we expand into new reserve areas at our River View and Tunnel Ridge operations. The capacity we obtained with this new financing enables us to use cash generated from operations to support our capital allocation plans, including increased unitholder distributions, potential repurchase of our common units and senior notes and positioning to capitalize on growth opportunities in the future.

我們新的 4.25 億美元循環信用額度，使我們能更妥善管理 ARLP 的日常營運。同時，7,500 萬美元 A 期定期貸款的資金，使我們得以將與基礎設施專案相關的資本長期化，因為我們正於 River View 與 Tunnel Ridge 作業擴展至新的儲量區域。這項新融資所取得的額度，使我們能運用營運所產生的現金來支持資本配置計畫，包括提高對單位持有人的分配、潛在回購普通合夥單位與優先票據，並為未來把握成長機會做好準備。

To that point, we announced today that the Board authorized an increase to our existing unit repurchase program. The program was previously established in May 2018 and had $6.5 million of remaining available capacity at year-end. The expanded program authorizes ARLP to repurchase up to $100 million of its outstanding limited partner common units, further increasing our flexibility in returning cash to unitholders. Future unit repurchases will be subject to ongoing board review and will be based on a number of factors, including ARLP's financial and operating performance and other capital requirements as well as future economic, business and market conditions. The unit repurchase program has no time limit and ARLP may repurchase units from time to time in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions.

基於上述方向，我們今天宣布董事會已核准提高既有的單位回購計畫額度。該計畫先前於 2018 年 5 月建立，至年末尚有 650 萬美元可用額度。擴大後的計畫授權 ARLP 最多可回購 1 億美元的已發行有限合夥普通單位，進一步提升我們向單位持有人返還現金的彈性。未來單位回購將持續接受董事會審查，並將基於多項因素決定，包括 ARLP 的財務與營運表現及其他資本需求，以及未來的經濟、商業與市場狀況。該單位回購計畫沒有期限限制，ARLP 可不時於公開市場或透過私下協商交易回購單位。

The unit repurchase program authorization does not obligate our ARLP to repurchase any dollar amount or number of its units and repurchases may be commenced or suspended from time to time without prior notice.

單位回購計畫之授權並不使本公司 ARLP 有義務回購任何金額或數量之其單位，且回購可能隨時開始或暫停，恕不另行事先通知。

Now turning to our initial guidance detailed in this morning's release. 2023 is shaping up to be another strong year at ARLP. We anticipate our overall coal sales volumes in 2023 to be in a range of 36 million to 38 million tons, an increase at the midpoint of 4% over 2022. Supported by our highly committed and priced coal contract book, we are currently anticipating 2023 coal price realizations in the range of $67 to $69 per ton, an increase of 13% to 17% compared to 2022.

現在轉到我們在今早新聞稿中詳述的初步指引。2023 年對 ARLP 而言正逐步成為另一個強勁的一年。我們預期 2023 年整體煤炭銷售量將介於 3,600 萬至 3,800 萬噸，按中位數計較 2022 年增加 4%。在我們高度承諾且已定價的煤炭合約組合支持下，我們目前預期 2023 年煤價實現值將介於每噸 67 至 69 美元，較 2022 年增加 13% 至 17%。

Currently, 34.7 million tons are already priced and committed for '23 and ARLP has secured commitments and pricing for another 23.7 million tons in 2024. With these commitments, we continue to believe that ARLP should benefit from increased coal sales volumes and pricing over the next several years. On the cost side, while we have recently begun to see some moderation in the inflationary factors we experienced in 2022, we currently anticipate labor pressures and higher sales-related expenses will continue to add to our costs in 2023.

目前，已有 3,470 萬噸在 2023 年完成定價並已承諾，且 ARLP 已就 2024 年另外 2,370 萬噸取得承諾與定價。憑藉這些承諾，我們仍然相信 ARLP 在未來數年應可受惠於煤炭銷售量與定價的提升。在成本方面，儘管我們近期已開始看到 2022 年所經歷的部分通膨因素有所緩和，但我們目前預期勞動力壓力與較高的銷售相關費用將在 2023 年持續推升成本。

From a comparative standpoint, recall that inflation in 2022 built dramatically during the first half of the year before peaking in the third quarter. And as a result, we expect segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton to be higher during the first half of '23 compared to 2022 levels before moderating in the back half of the year. For the 2023 full year, segment adjusted EBITDA expense is anticipated to increase by approximately 10% to 15% over 2022 full year levels to a range of $40.25 to $42.25 per ton sold.

從比較角度來看，請回想 2022 年的通膨在上半年急遽攀升，並於第三季達到高峰。因此，我們預期 2023 年上半年之分部調整後 EBITDA 費用（每噸）將高於 2022 年水準，並在下半年趨於緩和。就 2023 年全年而言，分部調整後 EBITDA 費用預期將較 2022 年全年水準增加約 10% 至 15%，達到每售出一噸 40.25 至 42.25 美元的區間。

One other item I would highlight is our anticipated capital expenditures in 2023. Not surprisingly, inflationary pressures are expected to impact maintenance capital this year, as we have previously discussed. And CapEx this year and next is expected to be higher as we move into a new reserve area at our River View mine.

我還要特別強調的一點是我們對 2023 年資本支出的預期。不出所料，正如我們先前討論過的，通膨壓力預期將在今年影響維護性資本。此外，隨著我們在 River View 礦場進入新的儲量區域，今年與明年的資本支出（CapEx）預期將更高。

Reflecting these impacts, we currently anticipate capital expenditures to be in the range of $400 million to $450 million from $286 million in 2022. This includes maintenance capital ranging between $350 million to $390 million. Additionally, as we announced earlier this morning, 2023 guidance includes the benefits of our acquisition of an additional 2,682 net oil and gas royalty acres in the Permian Delaware Basin. The cash purchase price of $72.3 million for this acquisition will be funded with available cash and is expected to close within the next 30 days with an effective date of January 1, 2023.

反映上述影響，我們目前預期資本支出將介於 4 億至 4.5 億美元，高於 2022 年的 2.86 億美元。其中包含介於 3.5 億至 3.9 億美元的維護性資本。此外，正如我們今早稍早宣布，2023 年指引已納入我們在二疊紀 Delaware 盆地（Permian Delaware Basin）收購額外 2,682 淨英畝油氣權利金（royalty）土地的效益。本次收購的現金購買價為 7,230 萬美元，將以可用現金支付，預期於未來 30 天內完成交割，生效日為 2023 年 1 月 1 日。

Since this acquisition involves an entity owned by Mr. Craft, terms of the transaction were approved by the Board and its conflicts committee, which is comprised entirely of independent directors. This acquisition not only further enhances our existing high-quality Permian royalty portfolio, but is expected to add approximately 250,000 total barrel of oil equivalent in 2023, weighted 67% towards oil and NGLs and will be immediately accretive to cash flow.

由於本次收購涉及由 Craft 先生持有之實體，交易條款已獲董事會及其利益衝突委員會核准；該委員會完全由獨立董事組成。本次收購不僅進一步強化我們既有的高品質二疊紀權利金資產組合，亦預期在 2023 年新增約 25 萬桶油當量（BOE）的總產量，其中 67% 權重為原油與天然氣液（NGLs），並將立即增厚現金流。

Before I turn the call over to Joe, let me take just a moment to comment on my upcoming retirement that we announced last March. I'm extremely proud to have been a part of this incredible organization that Joe started in 2016 and of what ARLP has grown to become. As you know, our Vice President of Corporate Finance and Treasurer, Cary Marshall, will be [resuming] the CFO role effective April 1, and I can't think of anyone more capable and prepared than Cary. It has been an honor and a pleasure working with my colleagues at Alliance, our investors, bankers and analysts. The future at ARLP is bright, and I look forward to following closely as a loyal interested investor for many years in the future.

在我把電話會議交給 Joe 之前，讓我花一點時間談談我們去年三月宣布的我即將退休一事。我非常自豪能成為這個由 Joe 於 2016 年創立的卓越組織的一員，也為 ARLP 成長至今日的樣貌感到驕傲。如各位所知，我們的企業財務副總裁兼財務主管 Cary Marshall 將自 4 月 1 日起[重新擔任]財務長（CFO）職務，而我想不到有誰比 Cary 更有能力、也更準備充分。能與 Alliance 的同事、我們的投資人、銀行夥伴與分析師共事，是我的榮幸與喜悅。ARLP 的未來一片光明，我也期待在未來多年以忠誠且關注的投資人身分持續密切關注。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Joe for comments on the market and his outlook for ARLP. Joe?

那麼，我將把電話會議交給 Joe，請他就市場與他對 ARLP 的展望發表評論。Joe？

Well, thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Now Brian, please let me express my heartfelt appreciation to you for your service and commitment to ARLP for the nearly 2 decades you have been with us. I appreciate everything you've done for me and our partnership and wish you continued success and happiness in the next chapter of your life. I also want to echo your observations that we have the best possible replacement for him, for you in Cary Marshall. Cary has been a critical contributor to ARLP's success from the beginning. Having been closely by my side since 1994, when he joined the coal group as a Manager of Financial Planning. Thank you, Brian, and congratulations, Cary.

好的，謝謝你，Brian，各位早安。Brian，請讓我由衷感謝你在近 20 年來對 ARLP 的服務與投入。我感謝你為我、為我們的合作關係所做的一切，並祝福你在人生下一個篇章持續成功與幸福。我也想呼應你的看法：我們在 Cary Marshall 身上找到了最理想的接任者，來接替他、接替你。Cary 從一開始就是 ARLP 成功的關鍵貢獻者。自 1994 年他加入煤炭事業群、擔任財務規劃經理以來，一直緊密在我身旁。謝謝你，Brian，也恭喜你，Cary。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，Joe。

I want to begin my comments this morning by thanking the entire Alliance organization for their hard work and dedication since the pandemic began in 2020. The challenges have been unprecedented and their resilience and determination to not only persevere, but to thrive need to be recognized. Through their efforts, ARLP delivered record financial results in 2022. I'm extremely proud of all that has been accomplished and thankful for the unwavering focus of our teams on creating long-term value for all of our stakeholders.

我想在今早的評論一開始，先感謝整個 Alliance 組織自 2020 年疫情開始以來的辛勤工作與奉獻。這些挑戰前所未有，他們不僅堅持不懈、更力求茁壯的韌性與決心值得肯定。透過他們的努力，ARLP 在 2022 年交出創紀錄的財務成果。我對已完成的一切深感自豪，也感謝我們團隊始終如一地專注於為所有利害關係人創造長期價值。

Now let me share some thoughts on the state of the industry and our strategy for growth and value creation going forward. As Brian mentioned in his opening remarks, 2022 was a historic year for ARLP, but it was also a year that emphasized the importance of keeping coal-fired generation and the mix for years to come, providing a reminder for the need to value energy security and resilience for our nation and nations around the world.

接下來我想分享一些對產業現況以及我們未來成長與價值創造策略的看法。如 Brian 在開場致詞中提到，2022 年對 ARLP 而言是歷史性的一年，但同時也凸顯了在未來多年維持燃煤發電及其在能源組合中占比的重要性，提醒我們必須重視我國以及全球各國的能源安全與韌性。

During the quarter, the U.S. experienced another major event with the arrival of Winter Storm Elliott, that put an exclamation point on this fact, consistent with what we have talked about on all of our earnings calls this year. Winter Storm Elliott brought severe cold across much of the continental U.S., straining the grid in a way that has become all too common in recent years. During the storm, electricity demand soared as natural gas wells frozed, pipeline deliveries were constrained and renewable sources were unable to respond with significance, resulting in severe price spikes for consumers in many states.

在本季期間，美國又經歷了一起重大事件：冬季風暴 Elliott 的來襲，進一步強調了這一事實，這也與我們今年在所有法說會中所談到的內容一致。冬季風暴 Elliott 為美國本土大部分地區帶來嚴寒，使電網承受壓力，而這在近年來已變得司空見慣。風暴期間，由於天然氣井結冰、管線輸送受限，且再生能源無法有效回應，導致用電需求飆升，進而使多州消費者面臨嚴重的價格飆升。

As tragic as the storms impact was, let me repeat, it was merely the latest highlight of (inaudible) [need people] for a diverse mix of energy sources and in particular, the vital role coal plays. This was evidenced by the fact that the U.S. coal-fire generation in December was at a 3-year high despite the retirement of almost 28 gigawatts of coal-fired generating capacity nationwide over that same 3-year period.

儘管風暴造成的影響令人痛心，但我再重申一次，這僅僅是（聽不清）[需要人們]採用多元能源組合、尤其是煤炭所扮演關鍵角色的最新例證。這可由以下事實看出：儘管在同一個三年期間全國已退役近 28 吉瓦的燃煤發電裝置容量，美國 12 月的燃煤發電量仍達到三年來高點。

As you have heard repeated over the years, it is still true today, coal keeps the lights on, especially at times when we need it most. Policy decisions continue to challenge our industry. But events like Winter Storm Elliott in the not-too-distant Winter Storm Yuri, which devastated many lives and homes in Texas reinforce the urgency and need for an all-of-the-above strategy, embracing energy security, reliability and affordable electricity.

正如各位多年來一再聽到的，直到今天仍然如此：煤炭能讓燈保持亮著，尤其是在我們最需要它的時候。政策決策持續對我們的產業帶來挑戰。但像冬季風暴 Elliott，以及不久前的冬季風暴 Yuri（其在德州造成許多生命與家園的浩劫）等事件，強化了採取「全方位」（all-of-the-above）策略的迫切性與必要性，擁抱能源安全、可靠性與可負擔的電力。

The past forced retirements of a significant portion of the country's coal-fired generation has exposed the grid especially in the regions that comprise our primary market, where many utilities recently have reported delaying previously announced coal plant retirements for several years.

過去強制退役了相當比例的燃煤發電設施，使電網暴露出脆弱性，尤其是在構成我們主要市場的地區；在這些地區，許多公用事業公司近期已表示，將把先前宣布的燃煤電廠退役計畫延後數年。

As the nation continues to embark on its transition of the energy and related infrastructure, we believe ARLP can play a vital role in the conversation and any changes to the U.S. power grid will create opportunities for ARLP to leverage long-standing relationships with the electric utilities, regulators and other customers to create additional avenues for growth.

隨著國家持續推動能源及相關基礎設施的轉型，我們相信 ARLP 能在相關對話中扮演關鍵角色，而美國電網的任何變革都將為 ARLP 創造機會，使我們能運用與電力公用事業、監管機關及其他客戶長期建立的關係，開拓更多成長途徑。

While at the same time, having the opportunity to rely on the coal plants we serve until we can responsibly get there. Again, we do not view our country's future energy needs as either-or solution, but an, and solution, which we will continue to advocate and support as we continue to highlight the reality of the situation.

同時，在我們能以負責任的方式達成目標之前，我們也有機會持續依賴我們所服務的燃煤電廠。再次強調，我們不將我國未來的能源需求視為非此即彼的解決方案，而是「兩者並行」的解決方案；我們將持續倡議並支持此一方向，同時也會持續凸顯現況的真實面貌。

Now turning to the current market and commodity pricing environment. U.S. natural gas prices continued their decline heading into the new year with the Henry Hub spot price down sharply this month, a warmer than usual January builds an underground storage of natural gas and the Freeport LNG export terminal remaining offline are all factors contributing to the weakness in near-term pricing, falling natural gas prices in the middle of winter tend to increase the risk of lower-than-expected coal burn, which could cause coal stockpiles to grow faster than anticipated.

接著談目前的市場與大宗商品定價環境。美國天然氣價格在進入新的一年之際持續走跌，本月 Henry Hub 現貨價格大幅下滑；較往年溫暖的一月使地下天然氣庫存增加，以及 Freeport LNG 出口終端仍處於停運狀態，皆是造成短期價格疲弱的因素。冬季中段天然氣價格下跌往往會提高煤炭燃燒量低於預期的風險，進而可能使煤炭庫存堆積速度快於原先預期。

However, Eastern U.S. coal pricing has not been meaningfully impacted so far since we, along with most of our competitors, are either fully committed or have very little inventory available. This is evidenced by our year-end coal inventory of 500,000 tons, of which 200,000 tons were staged for export in early 2023. Our planned January shipments are on schedule keeping our inventories at relatively low levels.

然而，截至目前，美國東部煤炭價格並未受到實質影響，因為我們與多數競爭對手不是已完全承諾供貨，就是可用庫存非常有限。這可由我們年末煤炭庫存 50 萬噸看出，其中 20 萬噸已為 2023 年初出口而預先備妥。我們規劃的一月出貨按進度進行，使庫存維持在相對低的水準。

Internationally, a number of factors are impacting global energy trade routes and in our view, will continue to drive higher demand and pricing in the back half of 2023 and for several years to come, if not permanently. Our primary trading partners for thermal coal in Europe are faced with the consequences of losing roughly 40 million tons per year of Russian coal imports for power generation, which resulted in skyrocketing prices in 2022. And while mild weather so far this winter in Europe has resulted in API 2 prices easing from recent peaks during the last year, we expect them to rebound sometime in midyear 2023.

在國際方面，多項因素正在影響全球能源貿易路線；我們認為，這些因素將在 2023 年下半年以及未來數年（甚至可能是永久性地）持續推升需求與價格。我們在歐洲的主要動力煤貿易夥伴，正面臨每年約 4,000 萬噸俄羅斯發電用煤進口流失的後果，這在 2022 年導致價格飆升。儘管今年冬季迄今歐洲氣候溫和，使 API 2 價格自去年高點回落，我們預期其將在 2023 年年中某個時點反彈。

Meanwhile, China's ban on imports of Australian coal is slowly being relaxed, putting additional pressure on European supply. Three Chinese power generators and a steelmaker were recently cleared by their regulators to buy Australian coal, it is believed easing of the band will continue to broaden, allowing other Chinese entities to pursue Australian thermal and metallurgical coal.

同時，中國對澳洲煤炭進口的禁令正逐步放寬，對歐洲供應形成額外壓力。近期有三家中國發電企業與一家鋼鐵製造商獲監管機構核准可購買澳洲煤炭；市場普遍認為，禁令的放寬將持續擴大，讓其他中國實體也能採購澳洲動力煤與冶金煤。

As Europe continues to replace Russian supply and Australian supply becomes more competitive as China's economy reopens, we believe coal demand will grow as European stockpiles will need to be replenished ahead of next winter and extend further into 2024. Again, we expect this increase in demand will lift oil, gas and coal prices during this year.

隨著歐洲持續替代俄羅斯供應，而在中國經濟重啟之際澳洲供應變得更具競爭力，我們認為煤炭需求將成長，因為歐洲庫存需要在下個冬季前補充，並延續至 2024 年。再次強調，我們預期這波需求增加將在今年推升油、氣與煤的價格。

Turning to our own book and guidance. 94% of our coal sales are priced and committed in 2023, which includes 3.3 million tons for export markets, giving us strong visibility and certainty into our 2023 guidance. Of our roughly 2.3 million tons of unsold coal this year, assuming production of 37 million tons, which is at the midpoint of our guidance, we expect at least 1/2 will be sold into the export market with the balance to either go to the export or domestic market as pricing dictates. Even though we are guiding for higher cost, as Brian mentioned, we expect favorable market forces and our current coal sales commitments will drive top line growth that should more than offset these inflationary pressures as margins are expected to expand to record levels in 2023.

接著談我們自身的銷售簿與指引。2023 年我們 94% 的煤炭銷售已定價並已承諾，其中包含 330 萬噸供出口市場，讓我們對 2023 年指引具備高度能見度與確定性。今年約 230 萬噸尚未售出的煤炭，假設產量為 3,700 萬噸（即我們指引的中位數），我們預期至少一半將售往出口市場，其餘則視價格而定，可能流向出口或國內市場。儘管我們指引成本較高，如 Brian 所提，我們預期有利的市場力量與目前的煤炭銷售承諾將帶動營收成長，且應足以抵消這些通膨壓力；我們預期 2023 年利潤率將擴大至創紀錄水準。

Now turning to our capital allocation priorities. Our primary focus is to provide well-covered distributions and attractive returns to our unitholders over the long term. Last week, we announced that our Board approved a 40% increase in our quarterly distribution, equating to an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit. We elected to declare a quarterly distribution increase to a level that we expect to maintain throughout the year as opposed to smaller increments each quarter.

接著談我們的資本配置優先順序。我們的首要重點是長期為單位持有人提供具充分覆蓋的分配與具吸引力的報酬。上週我們宣布董事會核准將季度分配提高 40%，折算年化為每單位 2.80 美元。我們選擇將季度分配一次提高到我們預期可在全年維持的水準，而非每季以較小幅度逐步調升。

This was based on our confidence and high visibility in 2023 and 2024, expected cash flows, committed tons and strong financial position. After distributions, we will continue to support our cooperations, funding appropriate maintenance capital requirements and investing in high-return efficiency projects with near-term paybacks that maintain our low-cost competitive advantage. Thereafter, Alliance's robust cash flow generation uniquely positions us to pursue attractive investments that meet the evolving energy needs of tomorrow and are consistent with our proven track record to date, including investments in oil and gas royalties as evidenced by the Permian Basin acquisition announced today.

此決策係基於我們對 2023 與 2024 年的信心與高度能見度、預期現金流、已承諾的噸數以及強健的財務狀況。在分配之後，我們將持續支持我們的營運，為適當的維護性資本需求提供資金，並投資於具高報酬、短期回收的效率提升專案，以維持我們低成本的競爭優勢。其後，Alliance 強勁的現金流創造能力，使我們具備獨特優勢去追求符合未來能源需求演進、且與我們迄今已證實的績效紀錄一致的具吸引力投資，包括投資於油氣權利金；今日宣布的二疊紀盆地（Permian Basin）收購案即為例證。

We took the next step in our diversification strategy in early 2022 with 3 energy transition investments totaling $87 million in outstanding commitments. In September, we hired a dedicated team of leaders to join our new ventures group to continue these efforts of identifying, evaluating and executing commercial opportunities beyond coal and oil and gas royalties. The team is focused on highly strategic investments that allow ARLP to leverage its core competencies and relationships with the electric utilities, industrial customers and federal and state governments.

我們在 2022 年初以三項能源轉型投資邁出多元化策略的下一步，未償承諾合計 8,700 萬美元。9 月，我們聘請一支專責領導團隊加入新事業部門，以持續推動在煤炭與油氣權利金之外，辨識、評估並執行商業機會。該團隊聚焦於高度策略性的投資，使 ARLP 能運用其核心能力，以及與電力公用事業、工業客戶與聯邦及州政府之間的關係。

As we embark on this new journey, we will maintain a disciplined and process-oriented approach to allocating capital. Absent available opportunities to invest in these businesses, we will continue to maintain flexibility evaluating other high-return uses of cash, which as Brian noted, may include redeeming a portion of our senior notes outstanding unit buybacks as well as providing well-covered cash distributions.

在我們展開這段新旅程之際，我們將維持嚴謹且以流程為導向的資本配置方法。若缺乏可投資於這些業務的機會，我們將持續保持彈性，評估其他高報酬的現金用途；如 Brian 所述，可能包括贖回部分未償還的優先票據、回購單位，以及提供具充分覆蓋的現金分配。

In closing, I am very proud of ARLP's 2022 record levels of revenues, net income and EBITDA but the same time, equally excited about the opportunities in front of us. Our operations are running well. Our coal contract book is heavily committed at very attractive levels and our financial position has never been stronger.

最後，我對 ARLP 在 2022 年創下營收、淨利與 EBITDA 的紀錄水準感到非常自豪，但同時也對眼前的機會同樣感到振奮。我們的營運運作良好。我們的煤炭合約銷售簿在非常具吸引力的水準下已高度承諾，而我們的財務狀況也從未如此強健。

Looking forward, we believe ARLP is well positioned to deliver solid growth and attractive cash returns to our unitholders in 2023 and beyond. That concludes our prepared comments, and I will now ask the operator to open the call for questions.

展望未來，我們相信 ARLP 已做好準備，可在 2023 年及其後為單位持有人帶來穩健成長與具吸引力的現金回報。以上為我們預先準備的發言，接下來我將請接線員開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Today's first question is coming from Mark La Reichman of NOBLE Capital Markets.

（接線員指示）今天的第一個問題來自 NOBLE Capital Markets 的 Mark La Reichman。

I was just wondering if you could contrast the overall market and pricing dynamics for your coal produced in the Illinois Basin versus Appalachia and whether you think the outlook for Illinois Basin looks a little stronger moving forward? And then also, did you get the other unit at the Hamilton Mine added.

我想請教您能否對比一下伊利諾伊盆地（Illinois Basin）與阿帕拉契亞（Appalachia）所產煤炭的整體市場與定價動態，以及您是否認為伊利諾伊盆地未來的展望看起來會更強一些？另外，Hamilton 礦場的另一個採掘單元是否已經新增完成？

So the other unit was for the Gibson mine. And so we have added the unit and it is staffed for 1 shift. We've got the second shift yet to be deployed, and that's anticipated to come online sometime in the second quarter of this year. So back to the Illinois Basin versus the Appalachia, in most of our Appalachia production is targeted for the export market that we have that's unsold. And I'd say of the unsold position, about half is the Illinois Basin and half of it is for Appalachia. And so we do have the flexibility in Illinois Basin to either sell that tonnage either domestically or the export market depending on what the market pricing will be.

另一個單元是用於 Gibson 礦場。因此我們已新增該單元，並已配置人力以一個班次運作。第二個班次尚未部署，預計會在今年第二季某個時點上線。回到伊利諾伊盆地與阿帕拉契亞的比較，我們阿帕拉契亞的大部分產量，針對的是我們尚未售出的出口市場。我會說在未售出的部位中，大約一半來自伊利諾伊盆地，另一半來自阿帕拉契亞。因此，我們在伊利諾伊盆地具備彈性，可視市場價格而定，將該等噸數銷往國內或出口市場。

Currently, there's really not much activity in the market, we are seeing more inbound opportunities from the export market than we are domestically given the warm weather and the inventory build that the utilities did for coal in the fourth quarter. So it's hard to answer specifically your question at the moment. I mean, we believe that in the back half of the year, most of our customers still have an open position, and there will be requests for additional tons, weather dependent, more likely for the rest of the winter as well as the summer.

目前市場其實沒有太多活動；由於天氣溫暖，以及公用事業在第四季建立了煤炭庫存，我們看到來自出口市場的詢價機會多於國內。因此此刻很難具體回答您的問題。我們認為在今年下半年，多數客戶仍有未覆蓋的部位，並會提出額外噸數的需求；這取決於天氣狀況，較可能發生在冬季剩餘期間以及夏季。

So Again, most of our book is pretty much sold for the first half, and our open position is really opening up in the second half when we do see favorable markets compared to what we're seeing at the current moment in time.

所以再次強調，我們的銷售簿在上半年幾乎都已售出，而我們的未覆蓋部位主要在下半年才會打開；相較於目前所見，我們確實在下半年看到較有利的市場。

Okay. I just had one more question and then I'll get back in the queue. With respect to the acquisition, Brian talked about the barrels of oil equivalent, but like the [last] acquisition, can you provide some additional information in terms of like the number of producing wells, wells to be completed in a number of permitted locations?

好的。我還有最後一個問題，之後我會回到隊列。關於這次收購案，Brian 提到了油當量桶數，但像「[last]」那次收購一樣，您能否提供更多資訊，例如在產井的數量、待完井的井數，以及已取得許可的開發位置數量？

Mark, I'll give you some aggregate statistics at the end of 2022. We had 12,833 producing wells on our acreage, which was an increase from the year-end 2021 level about up 2,661 wells. We currently have 67 wells or at the end of the year, we had 67 wells running on our acreage, an increase of 35 over year-end 2021 levels. And permitted locations, we currently have -- or at the end of the year, we had 779 total permitted locations on our acreage with 923 wells being drilled and 8,130 being completed.

Mark，我會提供截至 2022 年底的一些彙總統計數據。我們在自有礦權範圍內有 12,833 口投產井，較 2021 年底水準增加，約多了 2,661 口井。我們目前有 67 口井——或者說在年底時，我們在自有礦權範圍內有 67 口井在運行，較 2021 年底增加 35 口。至於已核准的井位，我們目前——或者說在年底時——在自有礦權範圍內共有 779 個已核准井位，其中有 923 口井正在鑽井、8,130 口井已完井。

The next question is coming from Nathan Martin of the Benchmark Company.

下一個問題來自 Benchmark Company 的 Nathan Martin。

Great to see significant quarter-over-quarter increase in the distribution. I heard those comments about how you just -- it sounds like you knocked out in 1 big chunk, maybe you kind of see that flattish throughout the year. I had a question related to the target. I think in the past, you guys have mentioned around a 30% target payout. Is that still the case? Any conversations going on with the Board about adjusting that level and then any thoughts on the target distribution coverage ratio as we look ahead? Or should we still just think about this more as a targeted payout that would fluctuate depending on cash generation?

很高興看到配息較上一季有顯著提升。我聽到你們的評論，聽起來你們是——好像一次用一大筆就處理完了，可能你們認為全年會大致持平。我有一個與目標相關的問題。我想過去你們曾提到大約 30% 的目標配發率。現在仍是如此嗎？董事會是否有在討論調整該水準？另外，展望未來，對於目標配息覆蓋倍數（distribution coverage ratio）有何想法？還是我們仍應把它視為一個目標配發率，會隨現金創造能力而波動？

I'd say that we have moderated that view from that cash generation point to more of a coverage ratio perspective, given the strong growth in cash flows that we have seen over the year and what we've locked in with contracts going forward. So we believe at the levels we are today that we can pay out a distribution at this coverage ratio that will be anywhere from 2.2 to 2.5x coverage and still have sufficient cash flow to be able to participate in trying to grow the company.

我會說，鑑於我們在過去一年看到的強勁現金流成長，以及我們透過合約在未來所鎖定的內容，我們已將觀點從「現金創造」的角度，調整為更偏向「覆蓋倍數」的角度。因此，我們相信以目前的水準，我們可以在 2.2 到 2.5 倍的覆蓋倍數下支付配息，同時仍有足夠的現金流來參與並推動公司成長。

Great. Appreciate that update, Joe. As you guys talked about some notable weakness in the gas and thermal coal markets to start the year, again, 94% [committed] price or 23% to midpoint of guidance. I mean what portion of those tons are susceptible to price fluctuations in either the domestic or export market, is that variability largely incorporated into your realized price per ton guidance?

很好。感謝更新，Joe。你們提到年初天然氣與動力煤市場出現一些明顯疲弱，再次確認，94%（[committed]）的價格或相當於指引中值的 23%。我的意思是，這些噸數中有多少部分會受到國內或出口市場價格波動的影響？這種變動性是否已大致反映在你們每噸實現價格（realized price per ton）的指引中？

So the committed tons are all fixed price. I mean they're all prices committed, so we know what the price is. They have been factored into our guidance. Our UI production, the tons we have opened to the market. Again, we projected what we believe the market is. We think that, again, based on our view of where the market is going to be in 2023, that we can definitely achieve those levels. And right now, they're sort of priced at the midpoint of the guidance we gave you when you factor in both the committed and our UI price situation.

所以，已承諾的噸數全部都是固定價格。也就是說，價格都已承諾，我們知道價格是多少，並且已納入我們的指引。我們的 UI 產量，也就是我們對市場開放的噸數，同樣地，我們是依據我們對市場的判斷來預估。我們認為——再次強調，基於我們對 2023 年市場走勢的看法——我們絕對可以達到那些水準。而且就目前而言，當你把已承諾的部分與我們 UI 的定價情況一起納入考量時，整體大致落在我們給出的指引中值附近。

I think the volume is dependent on the economy. I believe and most people believe that China's reopening has not been factored into the market. I believe it's going to happen. And I think that gives us the confidence that the second half of the year is going to be very supportive of the export market that will sort of set the standard of where the pricing is going to be when we start making decisions to sell our unsold coal.

我認為量的部分取決於經濟。我相信，而且多數人也相信，中國重啟尚未被市場充分反映。我相信它會發生。我認為這讓我們有信心，下半年將會對出口市場非常有利，而出口市場將在我們開始決定出售未售煤炭時，某種程度上成為定價水準的標準。

Yes. And Nat, as Joe mentioned during his opening comments, we're anticipating pricing to firm up in the back half of the year. And as you look at our commitments for 2023, most of our open times are in the back half of this year. So as Joe has just articulated, we feel pretty confident about the price levels that we're projecting for this year.

是的。而且 Nat，正如 Joe 在開場評論中提到的，我們預期下半年價格會走強。再看我們 2023 年的承諾情況，我們大多數的未鎖定噸數都在今年下半年。因此，如同 Joe 剛才闡述的，我們對今年所預估的價格水準相當有信心。

So Brian, by firm up in the back half of the year, are you thinking pricing increases kind of as we move throughout the year from the first half and the second half, is what you're saying or am I misunderstanding that.

所以 Brian，你說下半年會走強，是指價格會隨著年度推進，從上半年到下半年逐步上升嗎？還是我誤解了你的意思？

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. Perfect. And then, I mean, also just kind of thinking about the cadence throughout the year, any way to think about it from a shipment standpoint, any longwall moves to keep in mind? And I think, Brian, you also said just to confirm that first half expenses likely higher than second half expenses.

好的。完美。然後，我的意思是，也從全年節奏來看，在出貨方面有沒有什麼可以參考的思路？有沒有需要留意的長壁（longwall）搬遷？另外我想確認一下，Brian，你也提到上半年費用可能會高於下半年。

On shipping, we obviously have the normal seasonal impact of miners' vacation, holidays, et cetera. We do have more longwall moves scheduled for 2023. Last year, we had a total of 6. This year, we have a total of 8. I believe we have a longwall move scheduled in the first quarter at both Hamilton and Tunnel Ridge. I'm sorry.

在出貨方面，我們當然會受到礦工休假、假期等正常季節性影響。2023 年我們確實安排了更多長壁搬遷。去年總共 6 次，今年總共 8 次。我相信第一季在 Hamilton 和 Tunnel Ridge 都安排了長壁搬遷。抱歉。

2 at Tunnels.

Tunnel 有 2 次。

I'm sorry, 2 at Tunnel Ridge in the first half of the -- in the first quarter of this year. So after that, it will be spread out over the balance of the year. I would believe that our deliveries are going to be fairly consistent in the first and second quarters. And then as we look up the rest of our open position, the back half of the year should remain strong as well.

抱歉，是今年第一季上半年——也就是今年第一季——在 Tunnel Ridge 有 2 次長壁搬遷。之後會分散在今年剩餘期間。我認為我們第一季與第二季的交付量會相當一致。然後，當我們看剩餘的未鎖定部位時，下半年也應該會維持強勁。

Yes. So as Gibson as the second unit comes on in the second quarter, you'll see that bump up for the second for the third and fourth quarters. And you see that when you look at the sequential quarter fourth quarter. You can -- you know we had the impact at Hamilton of about 0.5 million tons. So as you think about the first couple of quarters, it should be similar to the sequential quarter in the first half -- the first half of the year and then the second half slightly higher for that second unit at Gibson.

是的。隨著 Gibson 的第二個單元在第二季投產，你會看到第三季與第四季出現上升。你在看第四季的連續季度變化時也能看到這點。你可以——你知道我們在 Hamilton 受到約 50 萬噸的影響。因此，當你思考前幾個季度時，上半年應該會與前一季度的水準相近——也就是上半年——然後下半年因為 Gibson 的第二個單元而略高一些。

Okay, Joe. So basically, you get that 0.5 million tons back, it sounds like in 1Q versus 4Q with Hamilton seemingly behind the event that occurred. And then first quarter, second quarter [flying] Gibson second shift comes on. We should see above that?

好的，Joe。所以基本上，聽起來 Hamilton 似乎已經走出先前發生事件的影響，你們在第一季相較第四季會把那 50 萬噸補回來。然後第一季、第二季（[flying]）Gibson 的第二班次開始運作。我們應該會看到高於那個水準？

Yes. There may -- you may not get the full amount back into the second quarter due to the number of longwall moves we got in the first quarter, but it's pretty close.

是的。由於第一季長壁搬遷的次數，你可能無法在第二季完全把全部量補回來，但會非常接近。

Got it. Really appreciate that color. And then just finally on CapEx guide, and I'll get back in the queue. A little bit higher than expected, it looks like '22 CapEx came in a little lower than your updated guidance. How many items that kind of carry forward, incorporated within '23 full year guidance? And then it looks like growth in maintenance grew about $100 million -- excuse me, maintenance grew roughly $100 million year-over-year. Assuming again, that's the main driver of the year-over-year guidance increase. But could you give a little bit more color maybe what's included in the growth piece as well.

了解。非常感謝這些補充說明。最後一個關於資本支出（CapEx）指引的問題，我就回到隊列。看起來比預期高一些，而 2022 年 CapEx 似乎比你們更新後的指引略低。有多少項目會結轉並納入 2023 全年指引？另外，看起來維護性支出年增約 1 億美元——抱歉，是維護性支出年增約 1 億美元。我想這應該是年對年指引上調的主要驅動因素。但你能否再多補充一些，成長性支出（growth）部分也包含了哪些內容？

On the growth piece, as we mentioned last quarter and in our opening remarks, we are moving into new reserve areas at River View and the main portion of the capital expenditures related to that will be incurred in this year and next. Other factors impacting maintenance capital, we're obviously projecting increased volumes, which by definition, you'll have higher maintenance capital costs associated with that, the inflationary impacts on our supplies, maintenance, equipment, et cetera, is also reflected. And then as you know, maintenance capital year-over-year can be pretty heavily influenced by just the timing of rebuild schedules, et cetera. And 2023, we have an occurrence of more rebuilds during this particular point in time than we've seen recently.

在成長性支出方面，正如我們上季以及在開場談話中提到的，我們正在 River View 進入新的儲量區域，而與此相關的資本支出主要會在今年與明年發生。影響維護性資本的其他因素方面，我們顯然預估產量增加，依定義而言，這會帶來更高的維護性資本成本；供應品、維修、設備等的通膨影響也已反映在內。此外，如你所知，維護性資本的年對年變化可能會受到重建（rebuild）排程時點等因素的顯著影響。而在 2023 年，我們在這個時間點的重建次數比近期所見更多。

The next question is coming from David Storms of Stonegate.

下一個問題來自 Stonegate 的 David Storms。

Just wondering if you could give a little more color as to what you're seeing on transportation expenses as inflation starts to turn a corner and specifically just outside of any seasonal moves.

想請問你們是否能多補充一些關於運輸費用的觀察，因為通膨開始出現轉折，特別是撇除任何季節性變動之外的部分。

On the transportation expenses, we are seeing better performance. Expenses are still elevated as we run into -- going into the year. Some of that does tie to pricing in the export market. So there could be some softening of that. Again, there's not been much activity because of our sold-out position. So we'll have to wait and see how that goes for the back half of the year. So I'm not sure I understood your second part of your question.

在運輸費用方面，我們確實看到表現有所改善。不過在進入今年時，費用仍然偏高。其中一部分與出口市場的定價有關，因此可能會有一些趨緩。再者，由於我們處於售罄狀態，近期活動不多，所以我們得等到下半年再看看情況如何。因此我不確定我是否理解你問題的第二部分。

No, I think that you covered it right. I appreciate it.

不，我認為你講得很到位。我很感謝。

Or maybe just for reminder fell that for us, transportation expenses are pass-through.

或者也許只是提醒一下，對我們而言，運輸費用是轉嫁成本（pass-through）。

And except for export...

而且除了出口……

Except for export, that's correct. So it really has an influence on decisions we make around where can we achieve the highest netback at our operations, is that in the domestic market or the export market.

除了出口，沒錯。所以這確實會影響我們在營運上做的決策：我們在哪裡能實現最高的淨回收（netback），是在國內市場還是出口市場。

That's perfect. And then on those export tons [they are] moving. How sticky do you view that just going into 2024 with the 40 million ton gap that will fill up?

非常好。接著談到那些正在流動的出口噸數。展望 2024 年，面對將被填補的 4,000 萬噸缺口，你認為這種情況有多黏著（sticky）？

We believe that, that will continue to be there. There's a lot depends on several decisions that they make. We do think that as you move towards the end of '24, end to '25, there may be opportunity for them to get more LNG, but then into their country, they're trying to move to renewables, but they've opened up their own coal facilities. They've opened up coal plants. So if you look at in addition to the Russian supply, we think there's like 8 million to 10 million tons of added demand in 2023 for coal plants that they've opened to meet their energy needs. How long those stay online, it is hard to know. But based on our 4.4 million tons or so that we're going to sell in the export market, we believe that there is more than plenty of opportunities for that to sustain itself if not grow.

我們相信那種情況會持續存在。這在很大程度上取決於他們所做的幾項決策。我們確實認為，當你走向 2024 年底到 2025 年底時，他們可能有機會取得更多 LNG，但在其國內，他們正試圖轉向再生能源，同時也重啟了自有的煤炭設施，並啟用了燃煤電廠。所以如果你把俄羅斯供應也納入考量，我們認為 2023 年因他們為滿足能源需求而啟用的燃煤電廠，帶來了大約 800 萬到 1,000 萬噸的新增需求。這些電廠會在線運轉多久，很難判斷。但基於我們大約 440 萬噸左右將在出口市場銷售的量，我們相信機會綽綽有餘，足以支撐甚至成長。

If you go back before the pandemic, we were shipping at a 12 million-ton rate. So I think not sure we'll get back to that level, but there is opportunity for us to grow just with the demand that we've seen over the last 6 years or so. And so we don't need a lot of growth. We just need stability and we believe that with our low-cost operations, we can compete in that global economy in the 4.5 million to say, 7.5 million to 8 million tons over the next 3 to 4 years if there's not alternatives in the domestic market.

如果回到疫情之前，我們的出貨速度是每年 1,200 萬噸。我不確定我們是否會回到那個水準，但就過去大約 6 年所看到的需求而言，我們確實有成長機會。因此我們不需要很大的成長，我們只需要穩定；而我們相信，憑藉低成本營運，如果國內市場沒有替代選項，未來 3 到 4 年我們可以在全球經濟中競爭，出口量可在 450 萬噸到 750 萬至 800 萬噸之間。

The next question is coming from David Marsh of Singular Research.

下一個問題來自 Singular Research 的 David Marsh。

Congratulations on the quarter. Also, Brian, congrats on the retirement and Cary, congrats on the promotion. So just quickly one housekeeping question. Brian, are you going to be staying on through the 10-K filing. And do you have kind of a targeted date in mind when you'll get the K filed.

恭喜本季表現。另外，Brian，恭喜退休；Cary，恭喜升遷。我先快速問一個例行問題：Brian，你會留任到 10-K 申報完成嗎？你是否有預計的申報日期？

We should be filing the K toward the end of February. And yes, I will be here through that. My targeted date is March 31, and Cary steps in on April 1.

我們應該會在 2 月底左右提交 10-K。是的，我會待到那時。我的目標日期是 3 月 31 日，而 Cary 會在 4 月 1 日接任。

Got it. Got it. And then just -- I was intrigued by the acquisition activity and the comments regarding another one. I was wondering if you guys could perhaps kind of highlight some of your high-level criteria. I'm very encouraged by the fact that it sounds like you're going to be cash flow accretive immediately on this 1 that you just closed. And I just wanted to know if you could give us a little bit more color on your criteria when evaluating acquisitions.

了解。了解。接著——我對你們的併購活動以及關於可能還有另一筆的評論很感興趣。我想請你們或許可以概述一些高層次的篩選標準。我很受鼓舞，因為聽起來你們剛完成的這一筆會立刻增厚現金流（cash flow accretive）。我想知道你們在評估併購時的標準，能否再多提供一些細節。

We have certain underwriting standards not only for oil and gas, but then we are very focused on having results that will give us risk-adjusted returns that will be more longer term in nature for our unitholders. So our return thresholds for this particular acquisition, probably, obviously, have been consistent with the past.

我們有特定的承銷標準，不僅適用於油氣；同時我們也非常專注於能為單位持有人帶來風險調整後報酬（risk-adjusted returns）、且更偏長期性的成果。因此，這筆特定收購案的報酬門檻，顯然也與過去一致。

We've committed to the oil and gas group Royalty segment that we will allow them to reinvest whatever cash flow they generate on an EBITDA basis the prior year. So they have capacity for another [$50 million] or so beyond the investment we made that we announced today. I'm hoping that some people will want to sell their gas at what current prices are. So that could give us some opportunities there. I don't know if people will.

我們已承諾油氣團隊的權利金（Royalty）業務板塊：允許他們以 EBITDA 口徑，將前一年度所產生的現金流進行再投資。因此，除了我們今天宣布的投資之外，他們大約還有 5,000 萬美元左右的額外投資容量。我希望會有人願意以目前的價格出售他們的天然氣，這可能會帶給我們一些機會。我不確定大家是否會這麼做。

But -- so I think that we're very focused on those products or services and solutions that are needed for the long term. And that's what we're looking for and then are -- right now, a challenging part of acquisition is just where it is the cost of capital. Interest rates are moving and all kinds of mixed signals as to whether the Fed is going to be right or the market is going to be right on where interest rates are going to be or where they are.

不過——所以我認為，我們非常專注於那些長期所需的產品、服務與解決方案。這就是我們在尋找的方向。然後——目前併購的一個挑戰在於資本成本的位置。利率在變動，且對於聯準會的判斷是否正確、或市場的判斷是否正確，以及利率將走向何處或目前應該在哪裡，都有各種混雜訊號。

So I think that obviously, in order to have those attractive long-term investments, you have to have a significant level of return above your cost of capital and our cost of capital is probably moving right now that could make 2023 evaluations, maybe a little bit more conservative than what they would have otherwise been had we not been in a higher cost environment.

所以我認為，顯然要做出那些具吸引力的長期投資，你必須取得顯著高於資本成本的報酬；而我們的資本成本目前可能正在變動，這可能使得 2023 年的評估相較於在較低成本環境下，會更保守一些。

In other words, we're going to make that done sure that we get a nice return above our cost of capital, and we may hedge a little bit on a higher cost of capital in '23 than what possibly it will turn out to be. I think those...

換句話說，我們會確保能取得高於資本成本的良好報酬，而且我們可能會在 2023 年對較高的資本成本做一些保守假設，即使最終結果可能不會那麼高。我認為這些……

How that makes a lot of sense -- that makes a lot of sense.

這很有道理——這非常有道理。

Yes. Those higher interest rates will obviously be impacting the seller's perspective. And so that just depends on what will be in the market from an acquisition standpoint as they look at their needs for cash and/or their strategic options that they're looking at.

是的。較高的利率顯然也會影響賣方的觀點。因此，從併購角度來看，這取決於市場上會出現什麼標的，以及他們在現金需求和／或其正在評估的策略選項。

That makes a lot of sense. I guess the acquisitions announced so far really are more oil and gas sides. Is there anything on the coal side where things could potentially become compelling.

這很有道理。我想目前宣布的收購多半都在油氣端。那在煤炭端是否有任何可能變得更具吸引力的機會？

There's -- as far as opportunities, there haven't been many in the coal space. I think from a strategic standpoint, the only thing that could potentially be an opportunity as a met coal potentially that we've had on our list, which we've been able to fit from our Mettiki operation. And so that's an area that I could see is possible, but it's not highly probable. It's probably the best way I'd put it. So most of our focus is outside the coal sector on acquisitions front. In other words, there's nothing going on right now.

就機會而言，煤炭領域的機會並不多。我認為從策略角度看，唯一可能成為機會的是冶金煤（met coal）方面——我們清單上確實有一些潛在標的，而我們能夠透過 Mettiki 的營運來配合。因此那是我認為可能的方向，但機率不高；這大概是我最貼切的說法。所以在併購方面，我們大部分的重點都在煤炭產業之外。換句話說，目前沒有什麼正在進行。

The next question is coming from Abe Landa of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行（Bank of America）的 Abe Landa。

Just a couple of questions on the balance sheet. So I'm sure you're aware fixed income markets are beginning to fall a little. We have seen some other coal companies take up some notes early. And then in your capital allocation discussion, you did mention you could potentially redeem a portion of your bonds which I'm sure you know your bonds. The coal price kind of steps down to par this May 1. Maybe kind of more holistically, what are you thinking about your capital structure and even more specifically about your bonds?

我有幾個關於資產負債表的問題。我相信你們也注意到，固定收益市場開始有些回落。我們看到其他一些煤炭公司提前回購部分票據。你們在資本配置的討論中也提到，可能會贖回一部分債券——我想你們也很清楚你們的債券條款。煤價相關的贖回價格（call）在今年 5 月 1 日會降到面值（par）。更全面地說，你們對資本結構有什麼想法？更具體地說，對你們的債券有什麼規劃？

Yes. With respect to the bonds, we needed to wait until we completed our bank financing to make sure that we have the flexibility that we wanted to see should we choose to go out and begin taking the bonds down. We did achieve that flexibility. And with the strong cash flow that we're generating, we do have the opportunity to potentially opportunistically repurchase in the open market if conditions warrant.

是的。就債券而言，我們需要等到完成銀行融資之後，才能確保若我們選擇開始降低債券餘額時，具備我們希望擁有的彈性。我們確實取得了那樣的彈性。憑藉我們正在產生的強勁現金流，如果條件合適，我們也有機會在公開市場上機會性回購。

And then beyond that, you're correct. Our bond call goes to par in May of this year. We'll evaluate market conditions and whether it's right -- when the right time is to completely potentially take those bonds down before they mature in May of '25. Clearly, we've got plenty of time to manage that, and we'll be watching markets very, very closely to try to pick up some of those positions at attractive levels.

此外，你說得沒錯。我們的債券可贖回價格在今年 5 月會回到面值。我們會評估市場狀況，以及何時是合適的時點——是否要在 2025 年 5 月到期前，可能把那些債券全部降下來。很明顯，我們有充足時間來管理這件事；我們也會非常密切地觀察市場，嘗試在具吸引力的水準買回一些部位。

Yes. And it will depend obviously on our other alternatives.

是的。而且這顯然也取決於我們其他的替代方案。

Yes.

是的。

Meaning like other capital allocation alternatives.

你的意思是像其他資本配置的替代方案。

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Yes. And if there's opportunity -- acquisition-type opportunities that pop up.

是的。以及如果出現——類似併購型的機會。

Yes. I mean, obviously, managing our balance sheet as 1 of our core capital allocation priorities, returning cash to unitholders is as well. The distribution we announced today -- or on Friday, I'm sorry, as Joe mentioned, we intend to -- currently intend to maintain that level through the year. So that's fairly well defined. And with the flexibility we've been given with our bank refinancing, ship conditions warrant, we could return additional cash to unitholders through a repurchase program that the Board elected to top off last week.

是的。我的意思是，顯然管理資產負債表是我們核心資本配置優先事項之一；向單位持有人返還現金也是。我們今天——或抱歉，週五——宣布的配息，如 Joe 所提到的，我們目前打算在今年維持在該水準。因此這相當明確。而且在銀行再融資所賦予的彈性之下，若條件合適，我們也可以透過董事會上週決議補足的回購計畫，向單位持有人返還額外現金。

And then just 2 quick housekeeping. It was good to see your credit agreement was extended. I think it also within that note, it included a $75 million term loan, just maybe uses. And also, is that currently undrawn.

接著有兩個簡短的例行事項。很高興看到你們的信貸協議已獲延長。我想在那份公告中也包含了一筆7,500萬美元的定期貸款，可能是用於某些用途。另外，這筆貸款目前是否尚未動用。

No. The term loan is drawn at closing. So that cash is now on our balance sheet. In our prepared comments, we noted that we do have these activities going on at the River View and we acquired some additional coal reserves at Tunnel Ridge. So we're using that $75 million to effectively turn those activities out for a more extended period of time primarily.

不是。定期貸款在交割時就已提用。因此，這筆現金現在已在我們的資產負債表上。在我們事先準備的發言中，我們提到我們在River View正進行相關作業，並且在Tunnel Ridge收購了額外的煤炭儲量。因此，我們主要是使用這7,500萬美元，將這些活動的推進期有效延長。

The next question is coming from Mark Reichman of NOBLE Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自NOBLE Capital Markets的Mark Reichman。

Just on the guidance, when you talk about the stronger second half, and I'd agree with those observations. But -- so coal prices in Illinois Basin in the fourth quarter was $57.47 a ton and an Appalachia at about $89 a ton. I was just wondering how much of a leap you have to make in terms of on those open or unpriced tonnage to meet your guidance?

關於指引，當你談到下半年會更強勁時，我也同意這些觀察。不過——伊利諾伊盆地第四季煤價為每噸57.47美元，而阿帕拉契亞約為每噸89美元。我想請教，為了達成你們的指引，在那些尚未簽約或尚未定價的銷售噸數上，你們需要把價格往上推升多少？

Not much. I mean I think if you look at fourth quarter and then you look at our guidance, I mean, like you said, our fourth quarter averaged [$67.84]. And so our guidance is what...

不需要太多。我的意思是，如果你看第四季，再看我們的指引——如你所說，我們第四季平均是[$67.84]。所以我們的指引是……

[$67 to $69].

[$67到$69]。

$69. So you can see we're right on with what we have committed. And so anything that we have open, it's going to be helpful to those numbers. So I think that, that's where you get to the midpoint or the higher end of the range. But if -- so I think we've got flexibility there within that range. We're in. I would say -- Yes, the pricing is conservative that's in our guidance for the (inaudible) time.

$69。所以你可以看到，我們與已承諾的水準非常一致。因此，任何我們尚未鎖定的部分，都會對這些數字有幫助。我認為這就是你如何達到區間中點或更高端的原因。不過如果——所以我認為在那個區間內我們有彈性。我會說——是的，指引中的定價在（聽不清）期間是偏保守的。

Okay. And then I was just curious on -- has the new ventures team -- what kind of progress have you seen there in terms of if they come up with some pretty good ideas? Or what are your expectations there?

好的。另外我也好奇——新事業團隊那邊目前進展如何？他們是否提出了一些相當不錯的想法？或者你們對那邊的期待是什麼？

Primarily, we -- they have established a process and we established internal resources as well as external resources to help us as we go through the many, many, many opportunities that are out there. We're trying to take those multitude of opportunities and trying to narrow those into preferred areas so that we can be efficient with our time and our resources, our people resources. So that we're focused on the right targets.

主要是，我們——他們已建立了一套流程，我們也建立了內部資源以及外部資源，來協助我們在面對非常非常多的機會時進行篩選。我們試圖把這些大量的機會收斂到較偏好的領域，讓我們能更有效率地運用時間與資源，尤其是人力資源，確保聚焦在正確的目標上。

So they made significant progress in a short period of time. I think we've got a clear vision on how we want to approach inbound opportunities that come to us. We also have an approach that's very much proactive that we are, again, using some outside sources to help us go target certain areas that will fit with what we believe to be our core competencies and give us those long-term risk-adjusted returns.

所以他們在很短的時間內取得了顯著進展。我認為我們對於如何處理主動找上門的機會，已經有清楚的願景。我們也採取非常主動的方式——同樣地，我們運用一些外部資源，協助我們鎖定特定領域，這些領域符合我們認為的核心能力，並能帶來長期、風險調整後的報酬。

Most of the things that we're looking at are more in the mid- to late stage of the growth process of a lot of these what have been in the transition world, we're trying to not limit ourselves on just a transition-type investments. So we're looking at other type things that are a little bit more mature that have cash flow that can be financed. But I would say our progress has been good. At the same time, there's just a lot of things we can look at that we're having to prioritize and it's going to take a little time.

我們正在看的多數項目，較偏向許多這些曾屬於轉型領域的公司在成長過程中的中後期階段；我們也不想把自己限制在僅做轉型類投資。因此，我們也在看一些更成熟、具現金流且可融資的其他類型項目。不過我會說，我們的進展不錯。同時，可看的東西實在很多，我們必須排定優先順序，這會需要一些時間。

One thing I've always appreciated is the strength and the longevity of Alliance's management team. So congratulations to both Brian and Cary and to the whole team for an excellent for the excellent results.

我一直很欣賞Alliance管理團隊的實力與長期穩定性。因此，恭喜Brian與Cary，也恭喜整個團隊取得優異的成果。

The next question is coming from Tom Coleman of Kensico Capital.

下一個問題來自Kensico Capital的Tom Coleman。

Just wanted to go back to your comment about the royalty team having like $50 million or whatever they can use their free cash to keep expanding their business. So when they come to you with the deal, does it feel (inaudible).

我想回到你剛才提到權利金團隊大概有5,000萬美元之類的資金，可以用他們的自由現金流持續擴張業務。所以當他們帶著交易來找你時，感覺是否（聽不清）。

Your (inaudible). Yes.

你的（聽不清）。是的。

(inaudible) Better.

（聽不清）好一些了。

Okay. When the royalty guys come here with the deal and you compare the packaging in the coming stock repurchase. Is there -- is there a critical mass in a royalty that's important to achieve and you're willing to reach a little bit relative to the comment to get to a certain level? How do you think about the size of that business standalone?

好的。當權利金那邊的人帶著交易來，你把它和回購股票的資金配置相比較時——權利金業務是否有一個需要達到的重要規模，你們願意為了達到某個水準而在某種程度上多做一些、相對於你剛才的評論？你們如何看待這個業務作為獨立事業的規模？

Again, you were cutting out a little bit. But the way we think about our Minerals segment is we do believe it has -- we have a proven track record now that we have been successful in our underwriting approach. We believe that oil and gas is going to be here for decades and decades. And so I think that it can compete with sustainable cash flow and it meets our strategic objectives again, to try to give them some guidance so they have certainty in developing deal flow.

你剛才又有點斷訊。不過我們看待Minerals（礦產權利金）事業部的方式是：我們確實相信它——我們現在已有經驗證明，我們的承銷方法是成功的。我們相信油氣產業還會存在數十年、數十年。因此，我認為它能以可持續的現金流來競爭，並符合我們的策略目標；同樣地，我們也試著給他們一些指引，讓他們在開發交易來源時更有確定性。

We've given them the latitude to know how much capital that they know they have available to them. It's not a cap. I think if they bring other opportunities that come to us that we can evaluate those and look at those, but we do not look at thinking in terms of reexamining on a quarterly basis, whether or not we want to allocate that capital to that segment.

我們給了他們一定的授權，讓他們知道可動用的資本規模。這不是上限。我認為如果他們帶來其他機會，我們也可以評估並檢視；但我們不會以每季重新檢討是否要把資本配置到該事業部的方式來思考。

We believe that it needs to grow and so if we can put $100 million to $120 million to whatever their growth is on an annual basis, we will get to a meaningful number. That has proven to be the case so far since we've been in the business since 2014, late 2014. We're committed to that business. We believe that it's an attractive business. We believe we have a proven track record of understanding how to value those opportunities and as a long-term investment, we continue to have confidence and faith that it's a good place for us to allocate capital.

我們相信它需要成長，因此如果我們每年能投入1億到1.2億美元，配合他們的年度成長，我們就能達到相當有意義的規模。自從我們在2014年（2014年末）進入這個業務以來，迄今也證明確實如此。我們承諾投入這項業務。我們相信這是一門具吸引力的業務。我們相信我們已證明自己理解如何為這些機會估值；作為長期投資，我們仍然有信心，這是我們配置資本的好去處。

At this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Cantrell for closing comments.

此時，我想把時間交還給Cantrell先生作結語。

Thank you, Donna, and to everyone on the call. We sincerely appreciate your time this morning as well as your continued support and interest in Alliance. Our next call to discuss our first quarter 2023 financial and operating results is currently expected to occur in late April, and we hope everyone will enjoy -- will join us again at that time. This concludes our call for the day. Thank you very much.

謝謝你，Donna，也謝謝所有參與電話會議的各位。我們由衷感謝各位今天上午撥冗參與，以及持續對Alliance的支持與關注。我們下一次電話會議將討論2023年第一季的財務與營運結果，目前預計在4月下旬舉行，我們也希望大家屆時能再次加入。今天的電話會議到此結束。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

各位女士、先生，感謝您的參與。本次活動到此結束。您現在可以中斷電話連線或登出網路直播，祝您今天剩餘時間愉快。