Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc (ARCO) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings webcast.

With us today are Marcelo Rabach, our Chief Executive Officer; Luis Raganato, our Chief Operating Officer; and Mariano Tannenbaum, our Chief Financial Officer.

Today's webcast, which is being reported, will consist of prepared remarks from our leadership team, which will be accompanied by a slide presentation, also available in the Investors section of our website, www.arcosdorados.com/ir.

As a reminder, to better view the presentation on the webcast platform, please scroll over the upper left-hand part of the screen and click on the arrows to maximize the slides.

After we conclude our opening remarks, we will answer your questions, which you can submit using the chat function on the left-hand side of the screen.

You will need to minimize the slides to access the chat function.

Today's call will contain forward-looking statements, and I refer you to the forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC.

We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances.

In addition to reporting financial results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles, we report certain non-GAAP financial results.

Investors are encouraged to review the reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial results as compared with GAAP results, which can be found in the press release and audited financial statements filed today with the SEC on Form 6-K.

Marcelo, over to you.

Thank you, Dan.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

I am very pleased to confirm that we have a very strong year in 2023.

Our three D's strategy of digital, delivery, and drive-thru continues to evolve by leveraging the industry's largest freestanding restaurant portfolio.

Digital sales include mobile app, delivery, and self-order kiosk transactions.

The penetration of these channels is expanding throughout our footprint.

Thanks to a mobile app that has evolved into an e-commerce platform, offering incentives and convenience to increase guest loyalty and visit frequency.

A delivery service channel, which continues to work strongly in a segment where we are the established industry leaders.

And self-order kiosks that are capturing an increasing share of off-premise orders with about 60% of Arcos Dorados restaurants already modernized to the experience of the future format.

Our three D's strategy continues to drive sustainable sales growth, supported by both restaurant volume and average check.

Importantly, we are implementing this strategy in a way we believe will deliver above inflation growth in systemwide comparable sales to then drive operating leverage and profitability growth.

Our balance sheet is very strong, which allows us to accelerate restaurant openings and capture significant growth opportunities for years to come.

All while operating responsibly and supporting the communities we serve.

Let's turn to our consolidated results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023.

Total revenue surpassed $1.2 billion in the quarter and $4.3 billion for the full year, which was the highest US dollar total in our history for each period.

Guest volumes were up mid-single digits in each division this year, helping to drive the 19.7% increase in US dollar revenue in 2023.

In line with our strategic approach, adjusted EBITDA grew with revenue reaching almost $133 million in the quarter, more than $472 million for the full year.

These results were also the highest US dollar total in our history for each period.

US dollar adjusted EBITDA grew 16.3% in the fourth quarter and 22.2% for the full year, on top of the prior year's record results.

This included incremental margin improvements in both periods, thanks mainly to better food and paper costs and G&A expenses.

Net income for the quarter was almost $56 million, or $0.26 per share.

We generated the best ever full year net income of more than $181 million or $0.86 per share last year.

System-wide comparable sales grew 32.4% in the fourth quarter, rising with or above inflation in all divisions and above our 1.1 times the company's blended inflation demonstrating the strength of the three D's strategy.

Our restaurant pipeline continues to demonstrate the growth opportunity that lies ahead of us.

During the fourth quarter, we opened 36 restaurants, bringing the full-year total to 81 new restaurants across our footprint.

This included the 72 new freestanding locations.

In Brazil, we opened 50 total restaurants last year, including 44 freestanding units.

Importantly, first, the return on investment for the restaurants we opened in each of the last three years have been in the mid to high 20s, which supports our outlook for long-term unit growth potential.

Our market share in all main markets is a testament to the strong brand positioning we have built and the significant consumer preference we enjoy versus our nearest competitors.

According to our research, we gained more market share on average than our main competitors in the fourth quarter, further strengthening our leadership position.

Notably, these gains came in markets where McDonald's brand share is already two to almost four times that of our main competitors.

Luis, over to you for the divisional sales performance.

Thanks, Marcelo, and good morning, everyone.

Brazil's comparable sales rose 6.2% in the quarter and 9.9% for the full year.

Comparable sales rose 1.3 times inflation in the quarter and 2.1 times inflation for the year.

We have about equal contribution from guest volumes and average check over the course of full year 2023.

About 63% of sales came through digital channels in Brazil with identified sales representing 26% of the total.

The loyalty program we launched at the end of October helped improve performance on both fronts, especially after Black Friday.

As Marcelo just showed you, McDonald's brand market share in Brazil remained at more than twice that of our nearest competitor.

The quarter included 12 of the top 20 strongest sales days of the year, driving market share gains in both guest visits and sales.

We introduced the McCrispy Chicken Elite sandwich in October, combining crispy and juicy breaded chicken with a new honey and fire sauce.

The sandwich is already one of the best sellers in a country where we are committed to growing the chicken category.

In November, we reinforced the beef platform, bringing back the famous Big Mac jingle with the launch of two limited time offers, the Double Big Mac and the Big Mac bacon.

As of the end of 2023, we had more than 3 million registered members in the loyalty program across 100% of restaurants in Brazil, including all sub-franchises.

The division's tradition of Mequi Friday campaign in November helped generate record mobile app downloads and active users.

Note as comparable sales grew 5.4% in the quarter and 10.6% for the full year, which was 2.1 times and 2.9 times the division's blended inflation, respectively.

Volume growth accounted for about two thirds of comparable sales growth last year.

The division reinforced its market leadership in the fourth quarter, achieving its highest level of basic share while growing key brand attributes such as top-of-mind, favorite brand, and high-quality food.

Mexico's sales momentum remained strong with mid 10s year-over-year growth in the quarter.

Marketing activities were key to support this growth with the launch of Grand's tasty and bacon, a new platform focused on large and indulgent burgers to engage guests.

In Puerto Rico, we continued gaining market share, leading the island's highly competitive QSR industry.

The brand campaign Saca tu Encanto supported brand love in that market.

Finally, we're making good progress with the digitalization of NOLAD, where 34% of sales came from digital channels in the quarter, up from just 22% last year.

SLAD's comparable sales grew in line with the division's blended inflation rate for the quarter and 1.2 times blended inflation for the year.

Guest volume growth in 2023 was in the mid to high single digit range, while comparable sales were impacted by inflation aided growth in Argentina all year.

Brand's strength has been a consistent contributor to market share gains and sales growth for the entire company, including SLAD, where we added significant market share in the period.

The fourth quarter included the launch of brand affinity campaigns such as Pasan Cosas Lindas in Argentina, and Me Gustas Asi in Chile.

The results were important sequential improvements in key brand attributes such as faorite-brand and brand-I-trust in both markets.

Product innovation included new large sandwiches such as the Grand Tasty Spicy in Argentina and the Bacon Cheddar McMelt in Chile and Colombia to boost the beef platform.

We also supported a dessert category, taking advantage of local flavors with new McFlurry options in several SLAD markets.

After Mariano takes you through divisional profitability, I will come back to tell you about the performance of the three D's strategy.

Thanks, Luis.

Good morning, everyone.

We are very pleased to be reporting the strongest ever EBITDA results for our fourth quarter and full year in Arcos Dorados' history.

Adjusted EBITDA grew 16.3% in US dollars, slightly above total revenue growth in the quarter.

Similarly, full year.

EBITDA grew 22.2% in US dollars, leveraging 19.7% revenue growth in 2023.

Moving forward, we expect to continue generating profitability growth by offering value to our guests and by opening new restaurants to drive sales growth.

We should also capture some operating leverage to support incremental margin improvements.

Consolidated EBITDA margin rose by 10 basis points in the quarter and 20 basis points for the full year.

Food and paper, payroll, and G&A all contributed to margin expansion last year, helping offset the higher effective royalty rate in 2023.

Excluding the impact of the royalty rate, our full year 2023 EBITDA margin rose 60 basis points over the prior year.

Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA grew strongly in all three divisions.

In Brazil, EBITDA was up 15.4% in US dollars.

Lower food and paper and G&A expenses were offset mainly by higher payroll and occupancy and other operating expenses as a percentage of revenue.

For the full year, Brazil's EBITDA grew 23.9% in US dollars, boosted by a 60 basis point increase in margin.

Margin expansion for the full year, including better food and paper, payroll, and G&A expenses, which were partially offset by small increases in occupancy and other operating expenses as well as royalties as a percentage of revenue.

NOLAD's EBITDA, grew 11.7% in US dollars.

Lower food and paper costs were offset mainly by higher payroll and occupancy and other operating expenses as a percentage of revenue.

NOLAD's full year EBITDA grew 21.1% in US dollar.

Margin was down 20 basis points due mainly to the higher effective royalty versus 2022, which was partially offset by a net improvement in other cost and expense line items.

SLAD's adjusted EBITDA grew 31% in US dollar in the fourth quarter.

EBITDA margin improved by 160 basis points with lower payroll and occupancy and other operating expenses, partially offset by higher food and paper costs as a percentage of revenue.

For the full year 2023, SLAD's EBITDA grew 19.5% in US dollars, including an incremental improvement of 10 basis points over the prior year's margin, with improvements in most cost and expense line items offsetting the higher effective royalty rate versus 2022.

Luis, back to you.

Let's turn to the three D's strategy of digital delivery and drive-thru.

Digital sales grew 39% in US dollar and contributed 53% of system-wide sales in the quarter.

We also identified 21% of the quarter system-wide sales and this figure should continue to rise as we've rolled out the loyalty program to more markets.

The goal is to identify 40% of sales by the end of 2025, keeping in mind our ability to positively impact the customer's average check and visit frequency, which significantly increases the value of an identified customer.

The mobile app downloads and monthly active users continued to grow during the quarter, recieving boost from the launch of the loyalty program in Brazil and Uruguay, as well as the increasing popularity of the Mobile Order & Pay functionality.

As we have said in the past, the omnichannel approach we are taking across geographies, restaurant formats ,,and digital platforms is allowing us to serve more customers the way they want to be served.

This is why it was so important to evolve the mobile app from a couponing tool to an e commerce platform with personalized offers, multiple ways to place and receive orders, and a loyalty program.

In addition to the mobile app and delivery, which I will tell you about on the next slide, let's not forget that digital sales also include the self-order kiosks in EOTF restaurants.

In some markets, self-order kiosks are the number-one sales channel, delivering higher average checks and operational efficiency, while capturing the lion's share of on-premises volume.

Both delivery and drive-thru contributed to the strong sales growth in the quarter, with combined off-premise US dollar sales rising 16% versus the prior year.

Taking advantage of our free-standing restaurant portfolio, deliver became almost $1 billion sales channel for us in 2023, growing from less than 5% of sales in 2019.

We have also developed plans in each of our markets to continue boosting drive-thru sales in 2024, which is a channel we already dominate across the region.

In late October of last year, we launched a new loyalty program in two of our market's Brazilian and Uruguay.

At the end of February, the program had grown to more than 5 million members, adding 2 million members in just the last two months.

We monitor several important KPIs and compare them with benchmarks within both, the McDonald's system as well as industry peers and similar programs in other industries.

So our, we have very healthy results in terms of active customers, visit frequency, and retention rate.

We will soon roll out the loyalty program to additional markets in NOLAD and SLAD and expect it to be fully implemented by the end of 2025.

We look forward to sharing progress on future calls.

Now that you have seen the strength of our operating results, let's take a look at the balance sheet and cash flows that will support accelerated unit growth in the coming years.

The net leverage at the end of 2023 was unchanged from the end of 2022 or just 1x.

As has been the trend throughout the year, total debt rose modestly versus the prior year end as we deployed cash to fund capital expenditures.

Additionally, the appreciation of the Brazilian real reduced the value of our derivative instruments.

The resulting increase in net debt was offset by the EBITDA growth we presented earlier.

Cash flow from operating activities grew 11% versus the prior year, allowing us to meet our ambitious capital expenditure plans for the year, while keeping net leverage unchanged.

As Marcelo already shared, restaurant openings were just above the top end of our 75 to 80 openings guidance range for full year 2023, just above 90% being freestanding openings, increasing the structural competitive advantage across our markets.

Capital expenditures for the full year totaled $360 million, in line with our guidance.

With that, we met our openings guidance, modernized another 10% of our existing restaurants for formal require maintenance on all other restaurants, and enhanced our information technology infrastructure and digital capabilities.

Returns on investment from both, openings and modernizations remain well above historical averages.

And part of the CapEx at the end of 2023 was invested in openings planned for the first quarter of 2024.

In fact, we have already opened 18 restaurants so far this year.

For the full year 2024, we plan to open 80 to 90 EOTF restaurants, again, with about 90% of them being freestanding.

We expect to accomplish this plan with capital expenditures of $300 million to $350 million, which we plan to fund with cash-on-hand and cash from operations.

About 60% of restaurants across the Arcos Dorados footprint are experience of the future locations.

We remain confident that we will surpass 90% of our footprint modernized to EOTF by the end of 2027, bringing all the benefits of performance and enhanced technology to improve guest experience while driving additional sales growth and operational efficiency.

Finally, in addition to the value the business is generating and as part of its ongoing commitment to provide shareholders with multiple sources of return, Arcos Dorados Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend of $0.24 per share to be paid in four equal installments towards the end of each calendar quarter.

Marcelo, back to you.

Thanks, Mariano.

Operating responsibly is an important principle for Arcos Dorados, which is why we continue to develop and implement our recipe for a future, ESG platform.

In 2023, we continued moving forward with our commitment to source 100% fresh cage-free eggs.

So far, we have increased our sourcing in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Puerto Rico, and Peru.

We are already working out the details for our upcoming transition in several additional markets and expect to achieve our commitment to be 100% fresh cage-free in all Arcos Dorados markets by the end of 2025.

Our sustainable construction program reached new cities in Latin America, arriving in Brazil, Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Ecuador.

These new or remodeled restaurants in tune up to 25 sustainability initiatives and come equipped with technology that minimizes the operations environmental impact.

The technologies included smart air-conditioning systems, water collection tanks, solar panels, and waste separation bins, among others.

In 2023, Arco Dorados sourced about 30% of its energy from renewable sources.

Last year, we also signed an agreement with Petroquimica Comodoro Rivadavia, a leading company in the Argentinean energy sector to source electricity from a new wind farm they built in the province of Buenos Aires.

We began sourcing electricity from these new farms last month and along with other projects in Brazil and Colombia, we expect this to help us continue converting our energy metrics to more sustainable sources in 2024.

Before we open the call for questions and answers, I would like to share a few final thoughts.

We are very proud of the results we delivered in 2023.

Comparable sales rose with or above inflation in all markets, driven by higher guest volumes and a competitive pricing strategy that offers the most compelling value proposition in the region.

Total revenue benefited from the strong comp sales performance as well as restaurant openings, and a mostly neutral currency environment.

In 2023, profitability grew mainly as a result of topline growth as we used some of our margin opportunity to drive guest volume.

Over time, this is more sustainable and reflects habit-formation among guests supporting increased frequency and lifetime value.

But it is worth repeating that excluding the impact of the higher royalty rate, full year 2023 EBITDA margin was 60 basis points higher than the prior year.

The structural competitive advantages we enjoy today are real and we've strengthened them in 2023.

Our freestanding restaurant portfolio grew larger, and we opened even more of a gap between us and our nearest competitors.

And our digital platform is second to none with the industry's most downloads, active users, functionalities, sales, you name it.

Our plan is to continue leveraging these advantages while bringing them to more markets in the coming years.

Finally, the restaurant openings pipeline is as strong as ever.

We will maintain discipline around the processes and tools that have generated the strong results of the last few years.

We also expect to increase the pace of openings in the next couple of years to take advantage of the opportunity to expand the McDonald's brand in a highly underpenetrated region of the world.

We are now two-and-a-half months into the first quarter of 2024, and we are pleased with the continued growth of our markets.

We set an ambitious internal goal for revenue and EBITDA growth this year with solid results so far.

Needless to say, we are also keeping a close eye on developments in Argentina and Ecuador at the beginning of 2024.

But we feel confident we have the best brand, along with the right strategy and team to continue generating significant value for our shareholders, people, and communities.

Thank you all for your continuing support.

Dan over to you to start the Q&A session.

Thanks, Marcelo.

(Conference Instructions) Great.

So, our first question today comes from Melissa Byun, who actually sent a couple of questions from Bank of America.

So, we'll start with the first one.

I think this one is for you.

Mariano.

Can you please discuss the margin outlook for 2024, including expectations for food and paper costs, wages and other expenses?

And where do you see the potential for productivity gains and/or other sources of savings?

Perfect.

Thank you, Dan.

Thanks Melissa for the question and good morning to everybody.

For the margin outlook 2024, we are committed to continue with our successful strategy that we have consistently delivered in the past four years.

With our unmatched footprint of freestanding restaurants and the three D's, we will focus on growing sales above inflation, increasing our EBITDA in dollars while obtaining margin expansion as we have done in the last few years.

That's how we increased our EBITDA from $272 million in 2021 to $472 million in 2023.

That's a 74% increase in US dollar and our EBITDA margin from 10.2% to almost 11% last year, despite the increase in the royalty rate.

So, in 2023, specifically, our strategy generated an EBITDA growth of 16.3% in the fourth quarter and 22.2% for the full year in US dollar.

For 2024, we expect to continue with this trend of growing sales at or above inflation with a more benign cost environment for food and paper.

That should translate in maintaining the healthy margin trends of the last years.

We don't see some headwinds in margins in Brazil and NOLAD, the ones that we experienced in the last quarter of 2023 to translate into 2024.

So, in summary, the expectation for 2024 is to continue with the same trend that we had in 2023.

And if you let me add Mariano to improve margins.

What we're doing in the region is focusing on the equalization of our execution and how we manage our P&L.

What we do is we have a benchmark market like Brazil.

We think the best practices to impact or positively impact markets that have a specific opportunity.

And we have these kind of opportunities not only when you compare market to market, but within some markets and even at a store level.

So, what we're doing today is leveraging from the diversity and scale that we have in the company.

Great.

Thanks.

Thanks, guys.

Melissa's second question, actually back to you is going to be the growth of the loyalty program has been very impressive.

Can you share any metrics on the behavior of members versus non-members?

Thank you, she says.

Yeah, thank you for the question, Melissa.

The main metric that we have today is the -- are the registered members.

Okay.

And like you said, it's a very positive number.

We came from 3 million members in December to 5 million members by the end of February.

And what we are expecting is to increase the value of identified sales.

That's another metric debt we are starting to see what we expect is that the loyalty program works as a booster of those identified sales.

And what we are already seeing is an increase in visit frequency, but today's very early to -- we're in the early stages of the program.

And what I can add is that we're going to rollout program in main markets by the end of this year.

Dan?

Great.

Thanks for Luis.

The next question is from Julia Rizzo from Morgan Stanley.

Actually, she has about a three or four parter here.

So let's take this in pieces.

First is, please comment on same-store sales trends.

I think actually probably talking more about the beginning of '24 than they end of '23, since we published those back in January, and we'll start with you, Marcelo.

Okay.

Thank you, Julia.

Thank you for your questions.

Through February of this year of 2024, the cumulative sales trends are about in line with our expectations.

Our strategy is to remain focused on offering value, great value to our guests all across our menu, and we expect this to help deliver comparable sales growth up or above inflation in the full year 2024 in most of our markets.

And there are contributions in this sense coming from a very competitive pricing.

We are pushing for categories of our product mix where we see the biggest opportunities.

So we should have some contributions coming from our product mix.

And finally, we continue to see a positive evolution in terms of guest volumes.

That has been the case for these first two months of the year.

In terms of the contribution of the different markets, I would say that based on the first two months of the year, we faced some headwinds in SLAD, particularly in Argentina and Ecuador.

But at the same time, we saw a very strong contributions coming from the other markets of SLAD and from the other two divisions, Brazil is doing extremely well and NOLAD too.

So with this kind of performance in terms of sales, what we expect is an EBITDA growth at the consolidated level for the full year 2024 as has been the case when we take a look to our results in the first two months of this year.

So we are pretty constructive in terms of the same-store sales trend, which allowed us to gain market share consistently across the region last year and we continue with that trend in the first two months of this year.

Great.

Thanks, Marcello.

The next sort of three parts of Julia's question.

I think they're all for you, Mariano.

The first one she asked about margins declining in Brazil and NOLAD.

And if that's a one-off?

I think you addressed that already basically saying that correct, that is more of a one-off, and that's something that we expect to continue into '24.

And then she has a couple of questions on somewhat related to Argentina.

She says also corporate expenses and others increased above expectations despite the exposure to a weaker Argentine peso.

And related to that, how much is Argentina now of total sales and EBITDA?

So I'll give you those two, Mariano.

Perfect.

And thanks, Julia for the question.

First of all, we continue to improve the SG&A as a percentage of revenues.

In fact, 2023 has the lowest percentage of SG&A as percentage of revenue in the history of the company.

The positive impact that you should expect that you mentioned from the devaluation of Argentina we have an impact during 2024 as the devaluations happened only in the first in the last two weeks of last year.

And the increase in absolute terms can also be explained by the investment in digital that the company continues to have and is driving sales and helping us to drive sales above inflation.

And also due to the increase last year in the stock price that has an impact on the mark-to-market of the long-term management compensation plan that we already mentioned.

Regarding the second part of the question about how much is Argentina of total sales and EBITDA, it remains the same as in 2022; in 2023, 16% approximately of total sales.

Great.

Thanks, Mariano.

The next questions come from Thiago Bortoluci from Goldman Sachs.

Morning, Marcello and Arco's team.

Congrats on the strong EPS.

Could you also please comment on sequential gross margin performance, i.e., versus the third quarter of '23 per division.

And that's the first part of Thiago's question.

And I guess we'll get that over to you, Marcelo.

Okay.

Yeah, hi, Thiago, thanks for your question.

What we saw in the second half, I would say, of 2023 and that's the trend which we started in 2024 is less pressure coming from food and paper costs.

That's why our food and paper improve in the second half and improved sequentially in the fourth quarter of this year when compared to the third quarter.

And we are using strategically that room in our costs and in our margins, in order to invest in offering the most compelling value proposition in the market.

And that's why I think one of the main reasons I think we continue to gain market share.

And we continue to build this customer base, which will allow us to create and degenerate to capture shareholder value for the long term for the company.

We are experiencing a leadership position, which is pretty strong, and we are building on that leadership position using in our favor the less pressure that we are seeing in terms of food and paper cost.

Great.

Thanks, Marcello.

And the second part of Thiago's question, we'll come back to you Marianna.

And he says, could you walk us through the impacts from Argentina on your P&L?

Thanks.

That again, I'm assuming we're talking about the fourth quarter of '23.

Yes, perfect.

The FX hit on the P&L is, as described in our press release, other operating income.

That includes a total of $7.4 million non-cash expense; that's primarily related to higher impairments and write-off of long-lived assets versus the prior year.

Within this number, about $3.5 million is related to the devaluation in Argentina.

In addition, in the fourth Q, there's an FX noncash remeasurement loss of $11.5 million.

But keep in mind that for the full year 2023, the impact is positive in $5 million.

So those are the main impacts that we have in the P&L.

On top of that, we have an improvement in our effective tax rate as well related to Argentina due to generating non-taxable gain below also the operating line that actually is giving us or allowing us to have the effective tax rate below 35% that you can see in our results.

Great.

Thanks, Mariana.

And I actually don't see any more questions in the queue.

So that brings us to the end of the Q&A session.

Leticia and I remain available to any analyst or investor that has a question related to our results or our expectations for 2024.

Thanks again to everyone for your interest in Arcos and for joining the webcast today.

Look forward to speaking with you again sometime in the middle of May when we report our fourth -- our first quarter 2024 earnings results.

And until then, stay safe and have a great day.